Diageo PLC (DEO) 2024 Q2 法說會逐字稿

Good morning, everyone, and thank you for joining our interim results call for fiscal '24. I hope you had a chance to read our press release and watch our presentation on Diageo.com.

大家早安，感謝大家參加我們2024財年中期業績電話會議。希望大家有機會閱讀我們的新聞稿，並在Diageo.com網站上觀看我們的示範。

The first half of fiscal '24 was challenging as we lapped high single-digit growth in the prior year and faced an uneven consumer environment alongside the inventory challenges in LAC. Performance in the half was in line with the update we issued in November. The group's organic net sales, or NSV, declined 0.6% in the first half of fiscal '24, and organic operating margin declined by 167 basis points. Excluding LAC, organic net sales grew 2.5%, driven by good growth in Europe, Asia Pacific and Africa. And our group organic operating margin declined 53 basis points, excluding LAC, and that's entirely driven by an increase of 70 basis points in our marketing reinvestment rate.

2024財年上半年充滿挑戰，我們上一財年實現了高個位數成長，同時面臨消費環境不均衡以及拉丁美洲和加勒比地區庫存挑戰。上半年業績與我們11月發布的最新情況一致。集團有機淨銷售額（NSV）在2024財年上半年下降了0.6%，有機營業利潤率下降了167個基點。不包括拉丁美洲和加勒比地區，有機淨銷售額成長了2.5%，這得益於歐洲、亞太和非洲地區的良好成長。不包括拉丁美洲和加勒比海地區，我們集團有機營業利潤率下降了53個基點，這完全是由於我們的行銷再投資率上升了70個基點。

We unlocked a further $335 million of productivity cost savings across cost of goods, marketings and overheads. We generated strong free cash flow of $1.5 billion, up $0.5 billion, while continuing to invest in the future growth potential of our brands. This is driven by strong working capital management. And once again, we increased our dividend, up 5%.

我們進一步節省了3.35億美元的生產力成本，涵蓋商品成本、行銷成本和間接費用。我們實現了15億美元的強勁自由現金流，較上年同期成長5億美元，同時持續投資於我們品牌的未來成長潛力。這得歸功於強大的營運資本管理。此外，我們再次提高了股息，增幅達5%。

Specifically in North America. While NSV declined versus the prior year, we delivered sequential improvement when compared to the second half of fiscal '23 as our actions and interventions in the region began to show an early impact. We are focused on returning to high-quality share growth as the U.S. beers category continues to normalize. Outside of the COVID period, this was the first time North America delivered operating margin improvement since the first half of fiscal '18.

尤其是在北美。雖然淨銷售額（NSV）較上年有所下降，但與2023財年下半年相比，我們實現了環比改善，因為我們在該地區的行動和乾預措施已開始顯現初步效果。隨著美國啤酒市場持續正常化，我們正致力於恢復高品質的市佔率成長。除新冠疫情期間外，這是自2018財年上半年以來北美地區首次實現營業利潤率成長。

In LAC, having conducted a review of inventory levels and monitor performance in the critical holiday season, we've taken action and have further plans to reduce inventory to a more appropriate level for the current consumer environment by the end of fiscal '24.

在拉丁美洲和加勒比地區，在對庫存水準進行審查並監控關鍵假日季的表現後，我們已採取行動並製定進一步計劃，在 24 財年末將庫存減少到更適合當前消費環境的水平。

Looking to the second half in this uneven global consumer environment, we expect our organic net sales growth rate to gradually improve compared to the growth rate for the group in the first half, and we expect an organic operating profit decline compared to prior year, but we expect the rate of decline to improve compared to the first half of fiscal '24.

展望下半年，在全球消費環境不平衡的情況下，我們預期有機淨銷售額成長率將較集團上半年的成長率逐步提高，我們預期有機營業利潤將較上年同期下降，但我們預期下降率將較24財年上半年有所改善。

While the operating environment in the near term will continue to present challenges, I am confident that we remain well positioned and resilient for the long term. We are diversified by category, price point and region, and we'll continue to invest behind our iconic brands to maintain our position as an industry leader in total beverage alcohol, an attractive sector with a long runway for growth.

雖然短期內營運環境仍將面臨挑戰，但我相信我們長期內仍將保持良好定位和韌性。我們的產品類別、價格和地區多元化，我們將繼續投資於我們的標誌性品牌，以保持我們在酒精飲料領域的行業領先地位，這是一個極具吸引力且擁有長期成長潛力的行業。

My focus is to generate long-term sustainable value for shareholders by driving performance of our brands, meeting global consumers' evolving tastes and stepping up our operational excellence to win quality market share.

我的重點是透過推動品牌業績、滿足全球消費者不斷變化的口味以及加強卓越營運來贏得優質市場份額，從而為股東創造長期可持續的價值。

Thank you very much, and I'll now hand back to the operator for the first question.

非常感謝，現在我將第一個問題交還給接線員。

(Operator Instructions) Our first question today comes from the line of Laurence Whyatt from Barclays.

（操作員指示）我們今天的第一個問題來自巴克萊銀行的勞倫斯·懷亞特 (Laurence Whyatt)。

Three for me, if that's okay. Firstly, on -- you said that you've been a bit disappointed by these results in the presentation that you gave. But have you seen anything in the last 6 months or otherwise that would shape your belief that the U.S. spirits market could grow at 4% to 5% medium term? And that you would expect to take share within that market? And could that happen in 2025? Or at least FY '25? And is there any reason why you can't hit your medium-term total guidance range in FY '25?

如果可以的話，我有三個問題。首先，關於—您在演講中提到您對這些結果有些失望。但是，在過去的六個月裡，或者在其他時間裡，您是否看到了什麼，讓您相信美國烈酒市場中期能夠成長4%到5%？而您預計會在該市場佔有一席之地嗎？這會在2025年實現嗎？或至少2025財年實現？有什麼原因導致您無法在2025財年實現中期整體指導範圍？

Then secondly, on a Bloomberg interview that I saw, you mentioned that inflation was moderating, but it's still there. At your most recent CMD, you said that we should expect flat margins until inflation starts falling away. Do you maintain that it would be impossible to see margin expansion in FY '25?

其次，我看到彭博社的一次採訪，您提到通膨正在放緩，但仍然存在。在您最近的CMD會議上，您表示，在通膨開始下降之前，利潤率應該會持平。您是否認為2025財年利潤率不可能成長？

And then finally, on India, it's facing an election this year. Are you aware of any other regulatory changes that could possibly take place in this market in the sort of medium term that might improve reducing the regulation and help spirit sales?

最後，關於印度，今年將面臨大選。您是否知道中期內印度市場可能還會推出其他監管變化，從而減少監管並促進烈酒銷售？

Thanks, Laurence. So I'll take your first one on just U.S. and medium-term guidance in fiscal '25. And then Lavanya, if you could just take the inflation and then India.

謝謝，勞倫斯。首先我想問您關於美國和2025財年中期業績指引的問題。然後是拉瓦尼亞，您能否談談通膨問題，以及印度的情況。

So yes, there's a lot to unpack there. So look, from a U.S. perspective, as I mentioned in the presentation, we are seeing -- it's still normalizing, it's not normalized, and I mentioned it not being linear.

是的，有很多問題需要解答。所以，從美國的角度來看，正如我在演講中提到的，我們看到的是——它仍在正常化，但尚未正常化，而且我之前提到過，它並非呈線性增長。

And I would say, look, if you would have asked me 6 months ago, we were seeing -- heading into summer, we were definitely -- looked to be tracking back into that mid-single-digit growth that you've seen the U.S. market consistently perform. And then fall came. And quite honestly, we really saw a consumer more under pressure. And it was -- it trended more towards low single digits than mid-single digits.

我想說，如果你六個月前問我，我們當時看到——進入夏季，我們肯定——看起來正在重回美國市場持續表現的中個位數成長。然後秋天來了。坦白說，我們確實看到消費者承受了更大的壓力。而且——它更傾向於低個位數成長，而不是中個位數成長。

I mentioned -- I've been in the U.S. quite a bit over the past 8 weeks and talking with customers. And I saw this bear out a little bit this morning in the NABCA data as well. November, I would say, ended up being better than expected. So a nice improvement. Early December, I think customers were worried. But then December ended up, people referenced the last week particularly of December, trended better. And so you saw NABCA this morning, I think, had the industry at 3.3%.

我提到過──過去8週我在美國待了不少時間，也和客戶交流過。今天早上，我在NABCA的數據中也看到了一些印證。我想說，11月最終表現比預期好。這是一個不錯的改善。 12月初，我認為客戶們還有些擔心。但到了12月底，人們提到，尤其是12月的最後一周，趨勢有所改善。所以，今天早上你看到NABCA公佈的產業成長率為3.3%。

So I'm not seeing anything change in the fundamentals, particularly as we look at the medium to long term, that would say -- we know the number of drinkers and volume growth is really driven off of that. Also, spirits stealing beer and wine occasions, that hasn't changed. We're actually seeing that, including in this environment.

所以，我認為基本面沒有任何變化，尤其是從中長期來看，也就是說──我們知道飲酒人數和銷售量的成長其實是受此驅動的。此外，烈酒搶佔啤酒和葡萄酒的市場份額，這一點也沒有改變。我們實際上已經看到了這一點，包括在目前的環境中。

And then you look at pricing, what we're looking at, unlike what we've done in the past couple of years, we're seeing pricing get back, particularly if you're talking about in the U.S., you're talking about more on that kind of 1% range if you look historically. And then it's really about premiumization. None of that -- Laurence, I mean, you still see what's driving the category is super-premium, plus-price products. So none of that has changed.

然後看看定價，與過去幾年的情況不同，我們看到價格正在回升，尤其是在美國，如果從歷史上看，漲幅大概在1%左右。這實際上與高端化有關。勞倫斯，我的意思是，你仍然可以看到，推動這一品類發展的是超高端、高價產品。所以這些都沒有改變。

It really is this near-term kind of consumer sentiment that's normalizing into this post-COVID new normal. There's still supply chain noise. In our results, we had some supply chain normalization. We were lapping some replenishment on tequila, as an example. So we're finally getting through that. We're finally getting through some of the price increases and lapping those.

正是這種短期消費者情緒逐漸恢復正常，進入後疫情時代的新常態。供應鏈噪音仍然存在。在我們的業績報告中，供應鏈已恢復正常。例如，我們正在對龍舌蘭酒進行補貨。所以我們終於撐過了這段時間。我們終於撐過了部分價格上漲，開始消化這些影響。

So that's why, as we -- what we referenced in our guidance for the second half and then going into fiscal '25 is, as the consumer environment improves, we would expect the industry to improve, we would expect us to continue also to outperform that, because nothing's changed in our portfolio either.

所以這就是為什麼，正如我們在下半年以及進入 25 財年的指引中提到的那樣，隨著消費環境的改善，我們預計行業將會改善，我們預計我們的表現也將繼續超越這一水平，因為我們的投資組合也沒有任何變化。

If you take a look at what's growing, Tequila is driving the growth. We feel great about our tequila portfolio. In fact, I'm very excited that I am 100% on DeLeón. So we've got a broader super-premium price portfolio that will help us on tequila. So there's nothing that's changed within the fundamentals that would make me say that the U.S. can't get back to mid-single digits.

如果你看看哪些產品在成長，你會發現龍舌蘭酒正在推動成長。我們對自己的龍舌蘭酒產品組合感到非常滿意。事實上，我很高興我100%投資了DeLeón。因此，我們擁有更廣泛的超高端產品組合，這將有利於我們的龍舌蘭酒業務。所以，基本面沒有任何變化，足以讓我斷言美國市場無法回到個位數左右的成長速度。

As far as when, I'm not predicting. I'm not going to predict the industry. Could that be 6 months? Maybe. But look, there's elections coming up, and it could be 18 months as well. I mean, we've just not seen this come back in a very even, linear way. So that's why we built our guidance the way we have.

至於具體時間，我無法預測。我不會預測產業的情況。可能是6個月後嗎？也許吧。不過，選舉即將到來，也可能是18個月後。我的意思是，我們還沒有看到經濟以非常平穩、線性的方式復甦。所以，我們才制定了目前的指引。

Look, it's January. To be talking about fiscal '25 already, it's a bit early, but we wanted to let you guys take a look at what we were seeing. We do see progressing back toward mid-single digits, but a little early to call where the consumer environment is going to be 6 months from now.

瞧，現在是一月。現在談論2025財年還為時過早，但我們想讓大家看看我們的預期。我們確實看到經濟成長正在回升至個位數左右，但預測6個月後的消費環境還為時過早。

Lavanya, you want to take the inflation question and then India?

Lavanya，你想先討論通膨問題，然後再討論印度問題嗎？

Sure. Laurence, on the inflation, look, what I -- the word that I would use is it's an extremely volatile environment. With that -- having said that, we are seeing, definitely seeing, signs of inflation moderating. U.K. energy prices have definitely moderated here over the last period of time. We're also seeing more moderation, and corn has come down quite substantially, aluminum is moderating. So definitely, I think that we are seeing commodities move in the right direction. And as we've always said, as the inflation moderates and the benefits of our supply agility program kicks in, we will be able to get back to operating margin growth.

當然。勞倫斯，關於通膨，我想用一個詞來形容，那就是「環境極度動盪」。話雖如此，我們確實看到了通膨放緩的跡象。英國能源價格在過去一段時間確實有所緩和。我們也看到了進一步的緩和，玉米價格大幅下降，鋁價格也在緩和。所以，我確信，我們看到大宗商品正朝著正確的方向發展。正如我們一直所說的，隨著通膨緩和以及我們供應敏捷性計畫的效益顯現，我們將能夠恢復營業利潤率的成長。

From a productivity perspective, I just draw everyone's attention to the $335 million that we have generated in productivity in the first half of this year, which is higher than any of the prior years, going back to fiscal '20. Outside of LAC, our operating margin decline of 53 basis points is entirely -- more than entirely driven by A&P upweighting of 70 basis points. So I do think that we are running this business in a very disciplined manner.

從生產力角度來看，我想提請大家注意，我們今年上半年的生產力成長了3.35億美元，比2020財年的任何一年都要高。除拉丁美洲地區外，我們的營業利潤率下降了53個基點，這完全——甚至不僅僅是因為廣告和促銷業務的權重增加了70個基點。所以，我確實認為我們正在以非常自律的方式經營這項業務。

Your second question on -- or your third question on India. Generally, during elections in India, what we have seen in the past is that there are temporary restrictions imposed by various states in terms of like the sale of alcohol. So I wouldn't -- I think that would be something that we would anticipate. We know the team in India know how to manage through that. And I'm sure that they will continue to do a good job on that.

您的第二個問題，或者說您的第三個問題，是關於印度的。通常，在印度選舉期間，我們過去看到的是，各邦會對酒類銷售等實施臨時限制。所以，我認為這種情況在我們意料之中。我們知道印度團隊知道如何應對這種情況。我相信他們會繼續出色地完成這項工作。

More broadly, trend on regulations has been moving in the right direction in India. Several of the larger states have reduced their stake import duties or excise duties on alcohol products over the last, call it, 18 to 24 months. We're still hopeful around the FTA. And we're expecting that the strong growth that we have seen on the scotch business in India, 16% growth on scotch, Johnnie Walker growing 21%. with regulations moving in the right direction, I think this all bodes really well for Diageo as the largest player in this segment.

更廣泛地說，印度的監管趨勢正朝著正確的方向發展。在過去的18到24個月裡，幾個較大的邦已經降低了酒類產品的進口關稅或消費稅。我們對自由貿易協定仍充滿希望。我們預計印度蘇格蘭威士忌業務將保持強勁成長勢頭，蘇格蘭威士忌成長了16%，尊尼獲加成長了21%。隨著監管朝著正確的方向發展，我認為這對帝亞吉歐作為該領域最大的參與者來說是一個好兆頭。

The next question today comes from the line of Olivier Nicolai from Goldman Sachs.

今天的下一個問題來自高盛的 Olivier Nicolai。

Three questions, if I may. Just regarding LatAm. First of all, could you give us a bit more color on your inventories by type of product? Essentially, is it mostly primary scotch which is the issue? Or is it actually more premium scotch, such as Johnnie Walker, even Johnnie Walker blue? What you need to see the destocking of?

請容許我問三個問題。僅關於拉丁美洲市場。首先，能否依產品類型詳細介紹一下貴公司的庫存狀況？本質上，庫存問題主要集中在蘇格蘭威士忌嗎？還是說，庫存實際上是更高端的蘇格蘭威士忌，例如尊尼獲加，甚至是尊尼獲加藍牌？您希望看到哪些產品被削減庫存？

Second question, regarding the midterm guidance. You do not expect organic EBIT margin to grow ahead of organic sales short term and including in 2025. Is it driven by a specific region, such as North America, why you need to invest more? Or is it a broad-based comment?

第二個問題，關於中期業績指引。您預計短期內（包括2025年）有機息稅前利潤率的成長不會超過有機銷售額的成長。這是由特定地區（例如北美）推動的嗎？為什麼您需要加大投資？還是說這是普遍的看法？

And just lastly, Lavanya, just going back to -- following up on the provision that you've done this morning. Considering your net debt to EBITDA level and the higher interest rate environment, how should we think about the sustainability of the share buyback beyond full year '24?

最後，Lavanya，我們再來談談——關於你今天早上所做的準備。考慮到你們的淨債務與EBITDA的比率，以及更高的利率環境，我們該如何看待2024年全年後股票回購的可持續性？

Great. Thanks. I'll start with the Latin America. And then Lavanya, if you can take the EBIT margin and share buyback question.

太好了，謝謝。我先從拉丁美洲開始。然後是Lavanya，你能不能談談息稅前利潤率和股票回購的問題？

Look, so on Latin America, we've got -- there's really 2 answers there. We've got scotch -- it's really scotch and tequila. I mean, when you think about our Latin America business, it's a heavy scotch business, as well as there is of course tequila in Mexico. And what I would say is, as we've referenced, there was a lot of premiumization in the region as we went through the COVID super cycle, and we have seen down-trading.

瞧，在拉丁美洲，我們有兩個答案。我們有蘇格蘭威士忌——實際上是蘇格蘭威士忌和龍舌蘭。我的意思是，想想我們的拉丁美洲業務，那裡的蘇格蘭威士忌生意很重，當然墨西哥也有龍舌蘭。我想說的是，正如我們所提到的，在經歷新冠疫情超級週期後，該地區的高端化趨勢明顯，我們也看到了消費下行的趨勢。

But I think your question is kind of getting to, is this sort of too much of the right stuff or too much of the wrong stuff? What I would say is, look, in Brazil, it's just too much of the -- but it's the right stuff. It's just too much of it, and it's in our scotch portfolio. I would say in Mexico, where we're seeing some real down-trading, we probably do have too much of the premium tequila in that market. So 2 different answers for 2 different countries, but I think that should give you a scope.

但我認為你的問題有點兒像，這究竟是好東西太多了，還是壞東西太多了？我想說的是，在巴西，好東西太多了——但好東西也太多了。太多了，而且它就在我們的蘇格蘭威士忌產品組合裡。我想說，在墨西哥，我們看到消費水平正在下降，我們可能在那裡市場上的高端龍舌蘭酒太多了。所以，對於兩個不同的國家，答案可能不同，但我想這應該能給你一個大概的答案。

But I just will reiterate, from what we announced this morning, we've run multiple scenarios against this in the current kind of consumer environment, running multiple scenarios against that, and still feel confident that we can reduce the inventory to the appropriate levels by the end of the fiscal.

但我只想重申，從我們今天早上宣布的消息來看，我們已經在當前的消費環境下針對這一情況進行了多種情景模擬，並且仍然有信心在財政年度末將庫存減少到適當的水平。

And so, Lavanya, if you want to...

所以，拉瓦尼亞，如果你想…

Yes. So Olivier, on operating margin, is it -- your question was, is it a specific region? What we're guiding to -- let me actually start the other way around. And in the first half of this year, if you exclude Latin America, we grew net sales 2.5% with operating margin down 53 basis points. As I said, that was all entirely driven by marketing.

是的。那麼奧利維爾，關於營業利潤率，你的問題是，它是指某個特定地區嗎？我們的預期是……讓我反過來說。今年上半年，如果不包括拉丁美洲，我們的淨銷售額成長了2.5%，但營業利潤率下降了53個基點。正如我所說，這完全是由行銷推動的。

Where did we increase our marketing investment? We increased our marketing investment to support the global tequila rollout. So that was primarily APAC and Europe, and we have seen strong results there. Tequila growth contributed to almost 19% of the growth of Europe and equally in APAC as well.

我們增加了哪些方面的行銷投入？我們增加了行銷投入，以支持龍舌蘭酒的全球推廣。這主要集中在亞太地區和歐洲，我們在那裡取得了強勁的業績。龍舌蘭酒的成長貢獻了歐洲市場近19%的成長，亞太地區的貢獻也同樣龐大。

So that's -- and that's investing for the long term. We are building a new category in these parts of the world. It's going well off of a very small base, but it's an important investment for us. We invested in Johnnie Walker in Europe, which has grown double digit; and we invested in India, which grew 9%. I gave the scotch numbers earlier, 16% growth. And we've invested in Chinese white spirits.

這就是——這就是長期投資。我們正在世界各地打造一個新的品類。雖然基數很小，但發展良好，但對我們來說是一項重要的投資。我們投資了歐洲的尊尼獲加，其銷量實現了兩位數成長；我們也投資了印度，其銷量成長了9%。我之前提到蘇格蘭威士忌的銷量成長了16%。我們也投資了中國的白酒。

And so what does this tell you about how we approach A&P investment? Is that we invest where we see the best ROI possibility. We are extremely disciplined about it. And where there is an opportunity for us to grow the business, both for the long term, but also more immediately, and we see good returns, that's where we will make the investments.

那麼，這反映了我們對於廣告和廣告投資的哪些態度呢？我們會在投資報酬率最高的地方進行投資。我們對此非常嚴謹。只要有機會促進我們的業務成長，無論是長期成長還是短期成長，並且我們看到了良好的回報，我們就會進行投資。

So going forward as well, I would say that our investment strategy will continue to be the same. It's not like the cost to compete has gone up in one region or one market or anything of that kind. I think it's we will be disciplined and we'll approach each investment decision from that perspective.

所以展望未來，我想說我們的投資策略將保持不變。這並不是說某個地區或某個市場的競爭成本上升了，或諸如此類。我認為我們會嚴守紀律，並從這個角度來制定每項投資決策。

In terms of share buybacks, we've -- after having a multiyear program, we have moved to having sort of a year-by-year program. We announced a $1 billion share buyback program for this fiscal. We've completed $0.5 billion. We will be completing the other half of it at the -- by the end of this fiscal.

在股票回購方面，我們之前有一個多年期的計劃，現在已經轉向了逐年執行的計劃。我們宣布了本財年10億美元的股票回購計畫。我們已經完成了5億美元。我們將在本財年末完成剩餘的一半。

We remain committed to our leverage ratio, the target range there being between 1.5 and 2x -- 2.5x and 3x, sorry. Between 2.5x and 3x. I'm looking at a bunch of numbers here, sorry. Yes. And we will stay very disciplined towards our leverage ratio as well. And if there's a great investment opportunity, we'll do what's right for the business. If we end up outside the range, briefly, we will come back into the range.

我們將繼續致力於維持槓桿率，目標範圍在1.5倍到2倍之間——抱歉，2.5倍到3倍之間。 2.5倍到3倍之間。抱歉，我這裡看的是一堆數字。是的。我們也將嚴格控制槓桿率。如果有好的投資機會，我們會採取對業務有利的措施。如果最終槓桿率超出範圍，我們會短暫地回到這個範圍。

This is a business that has a very strong balance sheet. We generate strong cash flow. I mean, the $1.5 billion in cash flow that we generated in this half is -- which is up $0.5 billion despite operating profit being down as a clear indicator of that.

這家公司的資產負債表非常強勁。我們產生了強勁的現金流。我的意思是，我們上半年產生的現金流為15億美元——儘管營業利潤下降，但還是增加了5億美元，這是一個明顯的跡象。

(Operator Instructions) Our next question today comes from the line of Edward Mundy from Jefferies.

（操作員指示）我們今天的下一個問題來自 Jefferies 的 Edward Mundy。

So one question for me just on U.S. tequila. I think you pointed to some pockets of down-trading within the U.S. and also increased price competition within whiskey and tequila. Tequila has been a really strong growth engine for you, certainly over the COVID super cycle and actually take a very long-term view, and you don't want to impact your brand equities from excessive promos. I mean, how do you protect your share within high-end ultra-premium tequila?

所以，我只想問一個關於美國龍舌蘭酒的問題。我想您提到了美國一些消費水平較低的群體，以及威士忌和龍舌蘭酒價格競爭的加劇。龍舌蘭酒一直是你們強勁的成長引擎，尤其是在新冠疫情超級週期期間。從長遠來看，您不希望過度的促銷活動影響品牌資產。我的意思是，您如何保護自己在高端超高端龍舌蘭酒市場的份額？

Yes. So I mean, I think there's a couple of things just to dig into our U.S. tequila results, and then I'll talk about the market in general. For one, our shipments in North America look a lot worse on both Don Julio and Casamigos than what we're seeing in depletions and ultimately what we're seeing at the point of consumption where we can track it.

是的。所以，我想先從幾個方面來深入分析我們在美國龍舌蘭酒的業績，然後再談談整個市場的情況。首先，我們在北美的Don Julio和Casamigos龍舌蘭酒的出貨量看起來比我們看到的消耗量以及最終在消費點追蹤到的狀況要差得多。

So as a for-instance there, Don Julio, our depletions were plus 12%. We also see that same kind of plus 11% to 12% also in the Nielsen NABCA data, so you can really see it's still performing at double digits. But yet in our shipments it's showing us a plus 2%. Likewise, Casamigos shows is a big negative, is a minus 14% in our results. But the depletion volume is actually positive.

舉個例子，Don Julio，我們的消耗量是正12%。尼爾森NABCA的數據也顯示，消耗量也正成長11%到12%，所以你可以看出它仍然保持兩位數的成長。但我們的出貨量卻增加了2%。同樣，Casamigos的數據也顯示，消耗量是一個很大的負值，在我們的結果中是負14%。但消耗量實際上是正的。

So that should tell you a little bit about -- last year, we were -- Reposado in particular has been kind of the hot part of our portfolio, and it just took us longer to recover on that aged tequila. And so we were lapping that replenishment last year as well as some price increases on both of those. So we do feel better about the underlying performance of that ultra-premium tequila portfolio that we have.

所以這應該可以說明一些情況——去年，我們——尤其是雷波薩多（Reposado）一直是我們產品組合中的熱門產品，只是我們花了更長的時間才從這款陳年龍舌蘭酒中恢復過來。所以，我們去年補充了雷波薩多的庫存，並且對這兩款酒都進行了提價。因此，我們對我們擁有的超高端龍舌蘭酒產品組合的基本表現確實感到更滿意。

To your question about how do you handle the price competition going on? Look, it was a really crazy, I would say in particular, the last 3 months of the year, where it wasn't only within tequila, but also in other categories like cognac that impact ultra-premium tequila. There were -- it was quite a competitive environment out there. And so certainly, we don't want to take our -- these great brands that we've driven down into those -- competing at that level.

關於您如何應對價格競爭的問題，您說，尤其是在去年最後三個月，情況真的非常瘋狂，不僅龍舌蘭酒，干邑白蘭地等其他類別也對高端龍舌蘭酒造成了衝擊。當時的競爭環境相當激烈。因此，我們當然不想讓我們這些優秀的品牌陷入這種低端競爭。

That's why it's so important that we expand our portfolio. That's the reason I'm so excited about getting control of DeLeón. And also, of course, Astral came to us. We bought that with the Aviation acquisition. And 21Seeds, gosh, that's been about a year or so that we bought that brand. So we are rounding out the portfolio to have the full price ladder because we think that is important to be able to effectively compete across all the areas that we're seeing in tequila.

這就是為什麼擴大我們的產品組合如此重要。這也是我對獲得DeLeón的控制權如此興奮的原因。當然，Astral也加入了我們。我們收購Aviation時也收購了它。至於21Seeds，天哪，我們收購這個品牌已經一年多了。所以，我們正在完善產品組合，打造完整的價格階梯，因為我們認為，這對於在龍舌蘭酒的所有領域有效競爭至關重要。

And tequila is still being driven -- that super premium -- and yes, ultra premium has been under a little bit of pressure. I mentioned -- especially when you get over $100 bottles, that's where you are seeing some down-trading from those $100-plus bottles into really the aged tequilas, the Reposado and Añejo for us is seeing a lot of heat right now. So that's tequila.

龍舌蘭酒仍然很受歡迎——那種超級高端的——是的，超高端的龍舌蘭酒確實承受了一些壓力。我提到過——尤其是當價格超過100美元時，你會看到一些人從100美元以上的酒轉向真正陳年的龍舌蘭酒，對我們來說，Reposado和Añejo現在很受歡迎。這就是龍舌蘭酒。

And Debra, do you think the down-trading from, let's say, the 50 to the 30, the bit more cheap in terms of agave, do you think that's due to the economic cycle? Or do you think it's a little bit more structural?

黛布拉，你認為龍舌蘭酒的價格從50美元降到30美元，比之前便宜了一點，這是經濟週期造成的嗎？還是更具結構性？

I think -- look, there's been a lot of new competition out there and at the shelf. I think people are out there experimenting. It's exactly what we would expect to happen as the category gets big, you actually have people trying more and more. That being said, our household penetration, all the underlying pieces of our equity, people still feel very, very good. So I do think some of that is just the promotional cycle and just some of the new entries of people going out and trying things.

我認為——你看，市場上和貨架上都有很多新的競爭。我認為人們都在嘗試。這正是我們預期的，隨著產品類別的擴大，人們會越來越多地嘗試。話雖如此，我們的家庭滲透率，以及我們所有潛在的資產，人們仍然感覺非常非常好。所以，我確實認為其中一些只是促銷週期，以及一些新進入市場的人出去嘗試新東西。

I think I tend to look at how brands are performing in on-premise than where they're calling it. Our on-premise performance in tequila is still very strong. So this comes back to when people are paying for something, they want to make sure they get what they want and the right thing. And so when they're calling drinks, they're still calling Casamigos. And Don Julio in particular is really having a cultural moment right now.

我認為我更傾向於專注於品牌在店內的表現，而不是他們叫賣的地點。我們龍舌蘭酒的店內表現仍然非常強勁。所以，這又回到了人們在付款時，他們希望確保買到他們想要的、正確的東西。所以，當他們叫賣飲料時，他們還是會叫Casamigos。尤其是Don Julio，現在正處於文化變革時期。

The next question today comes from the line of Celine Pannuti from JPMorgan.

今天的下一個問題來自摩根大通的 Celine Pannuti。

My question is really a follow-up on this one on the U.S. I think listening to your call this morning, it feels that there is more discussion about -- or you're a bit more cautious about the U.S. market. And we just discussed a bit more about the down-trading. So I also see that price/mix is 1.4% in the half, and in the last two halves, it was -- which came from 7%, 2.8% and now 1.4%.

我的問題其實是關於美國市場的後續問題。聽了您今天早上的電話會議，我覺得您對美國市場的討論更多了，或者說您更加謹慎了。我們剛才也討論了下行交易的情況。所以我還看到，上半年的價格組合比率為1.4%，而前兩季的價格組合比率分別為7%、2.8%和1.4%。

So my question is, are we in an environment with more promo and down-trading, where we see the risk of that price/mix even becoming negative? And then how should we think about the profit? Is that magnified when you see down-trading at your profit level? Or is there a way that you can offset that? You've spent a lot on A&P. I presume when you sell $100 bottle, you need a lot of A&P for that, but is there a way that you can offset should there be more pressure from the price/mix standpoint?

所以我的問題是，我們是否處在一個促銷活動增加、消費降價的環境中，以至於價格/產品組合甚至有可能變成負值？那麼，我們該如何看待利潤呢？當你們的利潤水準下降時，這種利潤是否會被放大？或者你們有辦法抵消這種影響？你們在廣告宣傳上投入了大量資金。我想，如果一瓶酒賣100美元，就需要大量的廣告宣傳。但是，如果價格/產品組合的壓力更大，你們有辦法抵消這種壓力嗎？

Yes. I think what you're seeing in some of the price/mix, don't forget that like for us, we were lapping. But honestly, I think it's quite broad across the industry. We're lapping now those price increases. So what you were seeing before was sort of this really historic kind of levels of price within spirits that came in last year in response to inflation. And so we fully lap that within sort of the half. So you see that, that price in particular come down.

是的。我想你看到的一些價格/產品組合，別忘了我們當時正在跟進。但說實話，我認為整個產業都普遍存在這種情況。我們現在正在跟進這些價格上漲。所以你之前看到的是，去年烈酒價格因通貨膨脹而達到了歷史性的水平。所以我們在大約一半的時間內就完全跟進了。所以你看到，特別是那個價格下降了。

Look, that being said, what I would say is -- the promotional environment, I think a lot of it had to do with people who were lapping big numbers from prior year. There is -- perhaps some people have more inventory out there that they were trying to do something with. We're not really seeing this being sort of something that's for the long term. I think this is really something in response to the particular environment that we're in right now.

話雖如此，我想說的是——促銷環境，我認為很大程度上與去年銷量大幅成長的人有關。也許有些人手上還有更多庫存，他們想利用這些庫存做些什麼。我們不認為這會是長期舉措。我認為這實際上是對我們目前所處特定環境的回應。

And then Lavanya, if you wanted to say something about A&P. Or...

然後，Lavanya，如果你想談談A&P。或者…

Yes. I'll just pick up on the price/mix piece of it as well, the 1.4% that you referenced, Celine, is what you see in our accounts. So that's the shipment price/mix that you have. And that's been -- in this half, that's been negatively impacted by the lap -- what Debra referred to just a minute ago about our tequila lapping the replenishment of inventory in the prior year.

是的。我還是想談談價格/產品組合部分。席琳，您提到的1.4%是我們帳目中看到的。這就是您看到的出貨價格/產品組合。這半年受到了庫存重疊的負面影響——黛布拉剛才提到，我們去年的龍舌蘭酒庫存彌補了去年的補貨。

If you look at it from a depletion perspective, mix is significantly stronger. And in fact, in my presentation, we did put up a slide where we kind of showed the difference between shipments and depletions in the U.S. on the super-premium, plus-price segments where depletions -- where shipments were down double digit, I think 11%. But when you look at it from a depletions on a consumption perspective, the picture looks quite different. And so I do think that the underlying mix that we have within our portfolio is significantly better than what you're seeing in the accounts in the half.

如果從消耗的角度來看，產品組合會更加強勁。事實上，在我的演示中，我們確實放了一張幻燈片，大致展示了美國超高端、高價位產品領域的出貨量和消耗量之間的差異，這些產品的消耗量——出貨量下降了兩位數，我想是11%。但如果從消費角度的消耗量來看，情況就大不相同了。因此，我確實認為，我們投資組合中的基礎產品組合比你們上半年帳目中看到的情況要好得多。

But as Debra said, some of the extraordinarily high pricing that we have seen over the last 2 fiscals. Last year, price for us was high single digits, the prior year was mid-single digits. We have -- we are seeing that pricing come down both across our categories, but also more broadly to the prior point on inflation moderating.

但正如黛布拉所說，過去兩個財年我們確實看到了一些異常高的價格。去年，我們的價格是高個位數，前一年是中等個位數。我們看到，我們所有品類的價格都在下降，而且總體上也下降到了通膨放緩之前的水平。

On P&L. Look, the more premium products tend to have the best -- tend to have better margins. I mean, that's part of what -- that's how the structure of the category is. But what -- we have many levers to drive profitability within this business. I mean, volume is one of them. The work that we do on productivity helps us to offset inflation and drive margins. And as you have seen, we have done very well in the half, and we have guided to further stepping up our productivity to delivering $2 billion of productivity over the next 3 fiscal years. So that's definitely a help. We will continue to drive price, but in a very disciplined and surgical manner, and that will contribute to productivity as well.

關於損益表。你看，越高端的產品往往利潤率越高。我的意思是，這就是產品類別結構的一部分。但我們有很多槓桿來提升這個行業的獲利能力。銷量就是其中之一。我們在生產力方面所做的努力有助於我們抵消通貨膨脹並提高利潤率。正如你所看到的，我們上半年的表現非常出色，並且我們已製定目標，在未來三個財年進一步提升生產力，實現20億美元的增值。這絕對有幫助。我們將繼續推動價格上漲，但將以非常嚴謹和精準的方式，這也將有助於提高生產力。

A&P investment really comes down to the -- where a brand is in its growth cycle more than anything else. And so maybe Debra, you can add...

A&P 的投資實際上取決於——品牌在其成長週期中的位置，而不是其他因素。所以，黛布拉，你可以補充一下…

Yes. I think as you look at the U.S., to your question on -- I mean, actually -- our brands are actually at a pretty good rate. Where we're really investing in A&P, it really is in markets where we don't have quite the scale to be able -- so Lavanya mentioned earlier, India, Chinese white spirits. Some of this are places where we're going after new occasions. In Europe, we mentioned earlier a little bit about the tequila investments that they've made, the non-alc category that's going after new occasions. That's really where we're adding an A&P investment.

是的。關於你提到的美國市場，我認為我們的品牌發展速度相當不錯。我們真正在廣告和促銷方面投入的，其實是那些我們規模尚不大的市場——Lavanya 之前提到過，例如印度和中國的白酒。其中一些市場是我們正在開拓新市場的地方。在歐洲，我們之前提到他們對龍舌蘭酒的投資，也就是他們正在開拓新市場的無酒精龍舌蘭類別。這正是我們加大廣告和促銷投資的領域。

I would say from a U.S. perspective, look, we don't manage to a rate. But the U.S. team, we're at good levels, and we look at that and feel like we've got what we need against those brands.

我想說，從美國的角度來看，我們沒能達到一個理想的速度。但美國團隊的水平不錯，我們覺得我們已經具備了對抗這些品牌所需的實力。

The next question today comes from the line of Sanjeet Aujla from UBS.

今天的下一個問題來自瑞銀的 Sanjeet Aujla。

My question is just coming back to the medium-term guidance. You don't seem to be endorsing that 5% to 7% for fiscal '25. But should we still consider that to be a relevant framework for F '26 onwards?

我的問題回到中期指引上。您似乎不同意25財年達到5%到7%的成長率。但我們是否仍應將此視為26財年及以後的相關框架？

I think, look, what we're trying to give -- like I said, it is January. So we're trying to give kind of an early look and we're saying progressing back towards medium-term guidance at this point. It just wouldn't be prudent with the current consumer environment and some of the uncertainties in the macros to be able to say much more about than what we have.

我想，就像我說的，我們現在想給的是──現在才一月。所以我們想給一個初步的展望，目前我們正朝著中期指引的方向發展。考慮到當前的消費環境和宏觀經濟中的一些不確定性，我們不應該透露太多資訊。

But that being said, medium-term guidance is still what we're looking at. And as I answered on kind of the first question, we feel very good about the fundamentals. We feel very good about our portfolio and where we're at. I'm disappointed in the half because of the LAC performance, and we were disappointed by the North America share, in missing that. We didn't miss by much, but we missed it. And -- but we've got a second half and the team has put together very strong plans. Always difficult to predict share because you have to predict what competition is going to do. But I feel very good about our plans on Crown, our plans on convenience. We've got some exciting innovation launches. And so we're still very much about our medium-term guidance, it's just the current operating context that we're in right now.

話雖如此，我們仍在關注中期業績指引。正如我在第一個問題上回答的那樣，我們對基本面非常滿意。我們對我們的投資組合和目前的狀況非常滿意。我對上半年的業績感到失望，因為拉丁美洲和加勒比海地區的表現不佳，我們對北美市場的份額也感到失望，未能達到預期。雖然差距不大，但我們確實錯過了一些機會。不過，我們還有下半年，團隊已經制定了非常強而有力的計畫。預測市場佔有率總是很困難，因為你必須預測競爭對手的動向。但我對我們在皇冠的計劃和便利商店的計劃非常滿意。我們推出了一些令人興奮的創新產品。因此，我們仍然非常關注中期業績指引，這只是我們目前的營運環境。

Got it. And just a quick follow-up on tequila again. You've spoken quite a bit today about the need to broaden the price ladder within tequila. How long does that take to meaningfully impact your performance? Is it a 6, 12 months kind of time line? Or 2 to 3 years to build a brand awareness on some of those smaller brands?

明白了。接下來我再簡單聊聊龍舌蘭酒。您今天多次提到需要拓寬龍舌蘭酒的價格階梯。這需要多長時間才能對業績產生顯著影響？是6個月到12個月的時間嗎？還是需要2到3年的時間才能在一些小品牌上建立知名度？

Listen, actually, on the half, if you take our total tequila portfolio, we did gain share in spirits. So already, we're getting some contribution, you can see from those brands. DeLeón, before the miss, we grew DeLeón 150-some-odd percent in fiscal '23. So we feel very good about the brand. We understand the brand. And so to have full control of that, we're very excited about. And so see a lot of opportunity there. 21Seeds also, we're feeling very good about that.

聽著，實際上，就我們整個龍舌蘭酒產品組合而言，我們在烈酒領域的份額確實有所增長。所以，我們已經從這些品牌中獲得了一些貢獻，你可以從中看到。在業績未達到預期之前，DeLeon 在 2023 財年的成長率達到了 150% 左右。所以我們對這個品牌非常有信心。我們了解這個品牌。能夠完全掌控它，我們感到非常興奮。我們看到了很多機會。 21Seeds 也是如此，我們對此非常滿意。

Astral is just launching. So to your point of how long will that take. We've got some markets that we're really kind of focused on where we feel like it will make the most impact to our portfolio. But we are managing this as a total portfolio. And -- but I feel good about where we're at, and I think there's really great opportunities yet still to go.

Astral 剛剛上線。所以，關於您提到的這需要多長時間？我們確實專注於一些市場，我們認為這些市場會對我們的投資組合產生最大的影響。但我們是將其作為一個整體投資組合來管理的。而且──我對我們目前的狀況感到滿意，我認為未來還有很大的發展機會。

The next question today comes from the line of Simon Hales from Citi.

今天的下一個問題來自花旗銀行的 Simon Hales。

So I've got one main question then just one quick clarification, if that's okay. Firstly, I think we're all just trying to get our heads around, given the move to dollar reporting, what that means from an FX standpoint going forward. You've clearly indicated in the press release you expect a big tailwind from transactional FX in the second half of the year based on H1 rates. But I wonder if maybe Lavanya, you could give a bit more clarity as to which currencies are driving that and associated with that?

所以，我有一個主要問題，如果可以的話，我只想快速澄清一下。首先，我想我們都在努力理解，鑑於轉向美元報告，這對未來的外匯市場意味著什麼。您在新聞稿中明確表示，根據上半年匯率，您預計下半年交易性外匯將迎來強勁成長。但Lavanya，您能否更清楚地說明一下，哪些貨幣正在推動這一趨勢，以及與此相關的因素？

I appreciate it's early, but when we think about transactional FX into the first half of 2025, I suppose I'm crucially trying to understand whether we see any unwind of that H2 '24 transactional benefits in 2025. So that's a slightly technical FX question.

我知道現在還為時過早，但當我們考慮 2025 年上半年的交易外匯時，我想我關鍵是想了解我們是否會看到 2024 年下半年的交易收益在 2025 年有所減弱。所以這是一個稍微技術性的外匯問題。

And then just to clarify, really, Debra, on Latin America, you said you were confident that the destock would be done by the end of 2024. I just wanted to check, there isn't any assumption therefore, going forward in your fiscal 2025 cautious guidance you put out this morning, of further destocking?

然後，黛布拉，我來澄清一下，關於拉丁美洲，您說您有信心到 2024 年底完成去庫存。我只是想確認一下，您今天早上發布的 2025 財年謹慎指引中，沒有任何關於進一步去庫存的假設嗎？

Yes. So I'll take Latin America while Lavanya gets into the FX. I'm not going to do FX.

是的。所以我會負責拉丁美洲，Lavanya 會負責特效製作。我不會做特效製作。

So yes, just be very clear on Latin America, we are not looking at that in relation to what we put out for fiscal '25. In fact, I mean, actually, we would expect, as we lap that inventory issue, that clearly gives us a bit of a tailwind, right? So that's actually a good guy for fiscal '25. That being said, it is a weaker consumer environment, right? That's part of how we got into this. And so what we don't want to do is over-predict at this point how quickly that consumer environment recovers in Latin America.

所以，是的，關於拉丁美洲，請明確一點，我們並沒有將其與2025財年的預期聯繫起來。事實上，我的意思是，我們預計，隨著庫存問題的解決，這顯然會為我們帶來一些利好，對吧？所以這對2025財年來說其實是個好消息。話雖如此，但消費環境確實比較疲軟，對吧？這也是我們陷入困境的原因之一。因此，我們目前不想過度預測拉丁美洲消費環境的復甦速度。

So I would say the cautiousness in fiscal '25 was really around the consumer environment in NAM and in LAC. That's really the cautiousness, but it doesn't have to do with the inventory. It's more about the consumer environment and not wanting to over-predict a steep recovery.

所以我想說，2025財年的謹慎態度其實是圍繞在北美和拉丁美洲地區的消費環境。這確實是謹慎，但與庫存無關。更多的是出於對消費環境的考慮，而不是過度預測經濟會大幅復甦。

So Lavanya, you want to try to handle that FX question?

那麼 Lavanya，你想嘗試解決這個 FX 問題嗎？

Yes. So on -- let me first start with this fiscal. I mean, Simon, for the full year, what we are expecting to see as the tailwinds on transaction FX really comes from the pound, the Mexican peso and the euro versus the dollar. So that's our 3 big -- that's the main currency pairs. And so that's where we are expecting to see the transactional FX benefits flow through.

是的。那麼——我先從本財年說起。西蒙，我的意思是，就全年而言，我們預期交易外匯的利多主要來自英鎊、墨西哥比索以及歐元兌美元。這就是我們的三大主要貨幣對。因此，我們預期交易外匯的收益將流向這些貨幣對。

In terms of fiscal '25, look, I mean, gosh, that's a long ways off. But here's how I would think about it. The 2 things that impact FX for us is, one is, of course, the prevailing rates, right? And then the second is the hedge positions that we take and especially on these main currency pairs, that's where we hedge on a rolling basis. And so I think those are the 2 things that I would look at to be able to build a model on what we would expect to happen on FX. We're not providing guidance for fiscal '25 FX right now, and we will definitely come back with more clear guidance on it as we get into the fiscal year, as we traditionally do. So July is when we do that.

就2025財年而言，天哪，這還遠得如此。但我是這樣想的。影響我們外匯表現的兩個因素是：一是現行利率，對吧？二是我們持有的對沖頭寸，尤其是在這些主要貨幣對上，我們會進行滾動對沖。所以，我認為我會參考這兩個因素，以便建立一個預測外匯走勢的模型。我們目前沒有提供2025財年外匯表現的指引，但隨著財年進入，我們肯定會像往常一樣，提供更清晰的指引。所以，我們會在7月發布指引。

The next question today comes from the line of Chris Pitcher from Redburn Atlantic.

今天的下一個問題來自 Redburn Atlantic 的 Chris Pitcher。

I've got a question on Latin America. In the presentation, you listed an impressive list of initiatives underway to improve visibility. But many -- in other markets sort of raises the question, why are we not already doing things such as data sharing, independent stock counts and investing more behind your sales resources? I mean, is it -- would it be fair to say the region had lapped focus and resource for many years? And hence, in hindsight, the high operating margins you were delivering, we're unlikely to return to those.

我有一個關於拉丁美洲的問題。在演講中，您列舉了一系列令人印象深刻的舉措，旨在提高知名度。但其他市場的情況卻引發了一個問題：為什麼我們還沒有採取數據共享、獨立庫存盤點以及加大銷售資源投入等措施？我的意思是，是否可以說該地區多年來一直佔據著我們的注意力和資源？因此，事後看來，我們不太可能恢復到您之前的高營業利潤率。

And as sort of a follow-up, with transatlantic freight rates to LatAm now down to pre-pandemic levels. So has the economics of primary scotch has improved such that you can give brands like Black and White and White Horse a push again? And that could help capture some of the volume loss to down-trading in Mexico and Brazil. But again, would limit the scale of any margin recovery in the region.

隨之而來的是，跨大西洋到拉丁美洲的運費現已降至疫情前的水平。那麼，蘇格蘭威士忌的市場經濟狀況是否已經改善，以至於可以再次推動像黑白威士忌和白馬威士忌這樣的品牌的銷售？這可能有助於彌補墨西哥和巴西消費者消費下降造成的部分銷售損失。但同樣，這會限制該地區利潤率的復甦規模。

Yes. So a couple of things on that. I'll take the resourcing, you can talk about transit-Atlantic rate. But I will just say before I get into this is, yes, the team is really focused on. We do have a broad scotch portfolio, and so we can absolutely pivot to where the consumer is going down there. And actually, we do have great margins on our primary portfolio as well. So I'll just get that one out of the way.

是的。關於這一點，我想談幾點。我會考慮資源配置，你可以談談大西洋運輸費率。但在深入探討之前，我想說的是，是的，我們的團隊非常專注於此。我們確實擁有廣泛的蘇格蘭威士忌產品組合，因此我們完全可以根據當地消費者的需求進行調整。實際上，我們的主要產品組合也擁有很高的利潤率。所以我先把這個問題說清楚。

So just talking a little bit about Latin America and what we're doing there vis-a-vis sort of the rest of the world. This is a unique -- it is quite unique in how we go to market in Latin America compared to many of our other markets. And I think we talked about that a little bit with the President as we went kind of around the room at Capital Markets Day, and people talked about the various ways that we went to market that way.

所以，我簡單談談拉丁美洲，以及我們在那裡相對於世界其他地區的業務。與我們在許多其他市場相比，我們在拉丁美洲的市場行銷方式非常獨特。我記得在資本市場日那天，我們和總統在房間裡走動時討論過這個問題，大家也討論了我們在那裡進行行銷的各種方式。

Latin America is a place, I've operated in it before in other categories, and it's not unique to our category, this multiple-layer structure. And often -- first of all, you're never going to have perfect visibility. But what you try to do is have enough visibility so that you can make -- so that your models and your estimates give you a better idea of what's going on with the inventory.

我以前在拉丁美洲經營過其他類別的業務，這種多層結構並非我們這個類別所獨有。而且通常——首先，你永遠不可能擁有完美的可視性。但你需要努力做到的是擁有足夠的可視性，這樣你才能——這樣你的模型和估算才能讓你更了解庫存的狀況。

It really was kind of a perfect storm of what happened to us because we were coming off of this COVID super cycle. So I would say 2 things behind the resourcing that we had in Latin America. I would say, first, it was rapid growth in a region, remembering how much bigger and frankly more material it became to the group in a very short time span.

這對我們來說真的就像一場完美的風暴，因為我們剛剛走出了新冠超級週期。所以，我想說一下我們在拉丁美洲的資源配置背後的兩個原因。首先，它在一個地區的快速成長，回想一下它在很短的時間內對集團的規模和內容的提升。

And so hindsight being 20/20, as we looked at the resourcing and the robustness of some of the models down there, we certainly have taken a look at that and said this isn't good enough. And so that's where we're making some additional investments and making sure that really these models are much more robust.

所以事後看來，當我們檢視一些模型的資源配置和穩健性時，我們確實已經檢視過這些模型，並認為這些模型還不夠好。因此，我們正在進行一些額外投資，以確保這些模型更加穩健。

And maybe the biggest thing that didn't come through is it's about the frequency of which you revisit some of these pieces and assumption. I mean, you're not going to be doing physical counts daily, but you need to do it frequently enough so that you're not making any misjudgments as you do some of these calculations and triangulation about what kind of inventory you have out there.

也許最大的問題在於你重新檢視這些部分和假設的頻率。我的意思是，你不會每天都進行實物盤點，但你需要足夠頻繁地進行，這樣你在進行一些計算和三角測量時，就不會做出任何錯誤判斷，從而確定你擁有什麼樣的庫存。

So I would say we're upping the quality of the data, making it a real focus. As you can imagine, we are -- we have a lot of governance around this. And this is -- these are activities that we have elsewhere. I mentioned some of the technology stuff that we're bringing over from China. China can be another place where you can have some of these issues. Well, we don't have these issues because we do have some of that technology in place in China.

所以我想說，我們正在提高數據質量，使其成為真正的重點。正如你所想像的，我們在這方面有許多治理措施。這些是我們在其他地方所進行的活動。我提到了我們從中國引進的一些技術。中國也可能存在一些類似的問題。但我們沒有這些問題，因為我們在中國已經擁有一些類似的技術。

So it is a matter of just learning from the rest of Diageo and bringing Latin America up to where the standard that we would expect it to be. And like I said, we've had great learnings there and we are putting those into action to make sure that we do not have this type of misstep again.

所以，我們只需要向帝亞吉歐其他公司學習，讓拉丁美洲達到我們所期望的標準。正如我所說，我們在那裡學到了很多東西，我們正在將這些經驗付諸行動，確保不再犯下同樣的錯誤。

Lavanya, do you want to take the margin question around LatAm?

Lavanya，你想回答有關拉丁美洲的利潤問題嗎？

So look, what I would say, Chris, is that, yes, we are going to be making some additional investment. But it's -- and some of it is going to be in overhead in Latin America. But Latin America -- the nature of our business in Latin America is what drives our margin structure. And Latin America business is mostly a scotch business, especially when you look at a market such as Brazil. And as Debra said, our margins are very strong. Our primary scotches as much as -- as well as on the -- of course, on the more premium scotches.

所以，克里斯，我想說的是，是的，我們會進行一些額外的投資。但其中一部分將用於拉丁美洲的管理費用。而拉丁美洲——我們在拉丁美洲的業務性質決定了我們的利潤結構。拉丁美洲的業務主要是蘇格蘭威士忌業務，尤其是在巴西這樣的市場。正如黛布拉所說，我們的利潤率非常高。我們的主要蘇格蘭威士忌，當然，還有更高端的蘇格蘭威士忌。

Overhead is a very small percentage of our net sales across the company, but more so in a market like Latin America, where a lot of our sales is run through distributors. And so yes, if we end up adding -- I don't know, a dozen people. That's not going to move our margin in Latin America in any significant way.

管理費用在我們公司淨銷售額中所佔比例很小，但在拉丁美洲這樣的市場尤其如此，因為我們的許多銷售都是透過經銷商完成的。所以，如果我們最終增加——我不知道，十幾個人。這不會對我們在拉丁美洲的利潤率產生任何顯著的影響。

The reduction in freight rates, of course, helps us. It helps us for Latin America, but it also helps us across the world. So the structural economics of Latin America are not going to be materially changed here because they are driven by the categories that -- our scotch sells at the same price points around the world. I mean, it has to because it's a single product that we sell everywhere.

運費降低當然對我們有利。這不僅對拉丁美洲有利，也對我們全球有利。因此，拉丁美洲的結構性經濟不會發生實質變化，因為它們是由我們的蘇格蘭威士忌在全球以相同價格銷售的類別所驅動的。我的意思是，它必須如此，因為它是我們在全球銷售的單一產品。

So sorry, can I just push you on that? If I look at the margins in Latin America post the collapse of Venezuela, they averaged high 20s, 27%. And then they expanded rapidly during the pandemic to the mid-30s. Are you saying that you expect to get back to mid-30s again? Or is high 20s a much more sustainable margin in Latin America with the additional overheads, it sounds like, you need to put in?

抱歉，我能再問您一下嗎？委內瑞拉危機後，拉丁美洲的利潤率平均在20%以上，也就是27%。疫情期間，利潤率迅速上升到35%左右。您是說，預計利潤率會回到35%左右嗎？還是說，考慮到您需要投入額外的管理費用，20%以上的利潤率在拉丁美洲是否更永續？

Our Latin America margins got all the way up to the 40s, operating margin was in the 40s in the last fiscal. And again, this was driven by 2 things. One, we have been very disciplined about taking pricing on our entire portfolio to offset the impacts of inflation and devaluation. We do this across all of our emerging markets, especially on our global portfolio of scotches and tequila. We are very disciplined about that because we do operate within -- we do try to keep these brands to operate within a corridor of pricing around the world. And so that will continue to be the case.

我們拉丁美洲的利潤率一路飆升至40%左右，上一財年的營業利益率也超過40%。這主要得益於兩個因素。首先，我們一直非常嚴格地控制整個產品組合的定價，以抵消通貨膨脹和貨幣貶值的影響。我們在所有新興市場都採取了這種定價策略，尤其是在我們全球的蘇格蘭威士忌和龍舌蘭酒產品組合中。我們之所以非常嚴格，是因為我們確實在定價範圍內運作——我們確實努力讓這些品牌的定價維持在全球統一的定價區間內。這種情況將持續下去。

The second thing that helped us with margin improvement in Latin America was scale. The business has grown at a 15% CAGR over the last 4 years, and that has added significant scale to us and operating leverage, which has helped us to offer improved operating margins. And again, both of these are structural improvement.

幫助我們提升拉丁美洲利潤率的第二個因素是規模。過去四年，該業務的複合年增長率達到15%，這顯著提升了我們的規模和營運槓桿，從而幫助我們提高了營運利潤率。同樣，這兩者都是結構性的改善。

And supply agility. So we also have done some things within our supply geographic footprint that also is structurally, I would say, help our primary scotch margin. So look, we don't give out sort of margin guidance by region. But certainly, there are things that have advanced, I would say, structurally in the market from that -- the period of time in the '20s.

還有供應彈性。我們在供應地域覆蓋範圍內也做了一些調整，從結構上來說，我認為這些調整有助於我們主要的蘇格蘭威士忌利潤率。我們不會按地區提供利潤率指導。但可以肯定的是，從1920年代以來，市場結構上確實取得了一些進展。

The next question today comes from the line of Sarah Simon from Morgan Stanley.

今天的下一個問題來自摩根士丹利的莎拉·西蒙。

I've just got one question on cash flow. You talked about it growing organically. Obviously, the first half, you had a very strong working capital inflow. What do you mean by organically?

我只想問一個關於現金流的問題。您提到了現金流的有機成長。顯然，上半年您的營運資金流入非常強勁。您說的有機成長是什麼意思？

Lavanya, do you want to talk about cash flow?

Lavanya，你想談談現金流嗎？

We expect cash flow to grow for the year. So I mean, I think the word organic just implies that it is net of FX. But maybe because the question hasn't come up, I take this opportunity to talk a little bit about our working capital improvements that we have done here in the first half of the year, which I do expect that these are structural improvements that will continue to benefit us.

我們預計今年的現金流將會成長。所以，我認為“有機”這個詞只是意味著扣除外匯影響。但也許是因為這個問題還沒有被提出來，我藉此機會稍微談談我們上半年在營運資本方面的改進，我確實預計這些結構性改進將繼續使我們受益。

We've rightsized inventory. And again, inventories had increased. Our days inventory in our system has increased through the COVID period, and that was simply because of the volatility in supply chains that we saw. We've added quite a bit of data analytics and technology to the system to help us to get to the right safety stock levels.

我們已經調整了庫存規模。庫存再次增加。在新冠疫情期間，我們系統中的庫存天數有所增加，這僅僅是因為我們看到的供應鏈波動。我們在系統中添加了相當多的數據分析和技術，以幫助我們達到合適的安全庫存水準。

We've started to make some structural interventions as well in terms of where we hold inventory closer to the market versus in every market or holding it only in a market like Scotland. More of that will come through as we run through the supply agility program, that will help us well.

我們也開始採取一些結構性幹預措施，例如將庫存存放在更靠近市場的地方，而不是在每個市場都存放，或只在像蘇格蘭這樣的市場存放。隨著我們實施供應敏捷性計劃，更多此類措施將會實施，這將對我們大有裨益。

And we've made some structural changes on processes as well, improvement of work processes, standardization of work processes, getting to better terms with our suppliers as our contracts come up for renewal. So these benefits are structural, and I expect that they will continue.

我們也對流程進行了一些結構性調整，包括改善工作流程、標準化工作流程，並在合約到期時與供應商達成更有利的條款。所以這些好處是結構性的，我預計它們將會持續下去。

Okay. But when you say -- I mean, obviously, the free cash flow in the first half was -- the growth was exceptionally strong. Are you saying you expect materially -- you're saying it's going to grow organically, but can you give us the kind of range in terms of what that organic growth might be the full year, and then what that implies to the second half?

好的。但您說——我的意思是，顯然，上半年的自由現金流——成長異常強勁。您是說您預期它會出現實質成長－您是說它會出現有機成長嗎？您能否告訴我們全年有機成長的大概範圍，以及這對下半年意味著什麼？

The way I would think about it, Sarah, is 2 steps. One is cash flow is correlated to operating profit and directly driven by operating profit. So as the business grows and as operating profit recovers, I would expect that cash flow will improve.

莎拉，我的思路是分兩步驟。第一步是現金流量與營業利潤相關，並直接受營業利潤驅動。因此，隨著業務成長和營業利潤回升，我預期現金流也會改善。

The second thing I would say is, in terms of our days of working capital, we have seen an improvement driven by some of the interventions that I just mentioned. And I expect that those interventions will -- I mean, those are structural interventions. Those will continue. We are not going to go back to increasing safety stock and inventory levels back to kind of like the COVID period as we go forward. We will continue to invest in CapEx. We'll continue to invest in maturing stock as we have done in the first half of this year.

我想說的第二件事是，就我們的營運資金週轉天數而言，我們看到了由我剛才提到的一些幹預措施推動的改善。我預期這些幹預措施——我的意思是，那些是結構性幹預措施。這些措施將繼續下去。我們不會像新冠疫情期間那樣，重新提高安全庫存和庫存水準。我們將繼續投資於資本支出。我們將繼續投資於到期庫存，就像我們今年上半年所做的那樣。

The next question today comes from the line of Mitch Collett from Deutsche Bank.

今天的下一個問題來自德意志銀行的米奇‧科萊特 (Mitch Collett)。

I'll ask one question. I think, Debra, you said in the U.S., that there's been no change to the fundamentals as you see it. But I think one possible change is that the growth in prepared cocktails appears to be cannibalizing the rest of spirits. And then on top of that, some of those cocktail players are now coming into the mainstream spirits categories.

我想問一個問題。黛布拉，你剛才說了，在美國，基本面並沒有發生任何變化。但我認為一個可能的變化是，調製雞尾酒的增長似乎正在蠶食其他烈酒的市場份額。此外，一些雞尾酒製造商現在正在進入主流烈酒市場。

So I guess I'd be interested in your thoughts on that and your strategy to fight that headwind because so far, although I appreciate you've already got a big FMB business within ready-to-drink cocktails, you've very much gone for a premium multi-serve strategy. And with that in mind, I just wondered why you haven't maybe had a more aggressive push into mainstream single-serve canned cocktails given that, that's where the growth is currently?

所以我想問您對此的看法以及您應對這種不利因素的策略。雖然我很欣賞您在即飲雞尾酒領域已經擁有龐大的FMB業務，但到目前為止，您仍然堅持高端多杯裝策略。考慮到這一點，我只是想知道，既然主流單杯罐裝雞尾酒目前正處於增長階段，為什麼您沒有更積極地進入這一領域？

Thanks for your question, Mitch, because actually, we haven't talked a lot about it. But we are launching our Smirnoff Smash vodka spirit in the second half. So we are getting a bit more into this canned cocktails as well as we are expanding our Crown canned cocktails into a multipack of lemonade. So we certainly are into it.

謝謝你的提問，米奇，因為實際上我們之前談的還不多。不過下半年我們會推出斯米諾伏特加烈酒（Smirnoff Smash Vodka）。所以我們會更深入地研究罐裝雞尾酒，同時我們也在把皇冠罐裝雞尾酒拓展成多瓶裝檸檬水。所以我們當然會積極參與。

We have said we have a targeted participation in this ready-to-drink cocktail space. We are wanting to keep it premium, we are wanting to make sure that it is differentiated, and we want to make sure that it adds to our brands and build our brands.

我們說過，我們在這個即飲雞尾酒領域有針對性地參與。我們希望保持它的高端定位，確保它的差異化，並確保它能夠提升我們的品牌價值，打造我們的品牌。

To your point, we've been in the FMB space for a long time. This can be a space where you're kind of in and out if you don't do it right, and so we want to do it right. So we're very excited about getting into a bit more mainstream on that -- on those ready-to-drink cocktails.

正如您所說，我們在FMB領域已經深耕多年。如果做得不好，這個領域可能會讓你進退兩難，所以我們想做好。因此，我們非常期待能夠更深入地涉足這個領域——即飲雞尾酒。

And you did mention, look, the ready-to-serve piece as well. We feel very, very good about the launch of Ketel One. The espresso, martini and Cosmo are already showing up. You can see those in the database already reading through on Nielsen in a great way. And we do have the Tanqueray Negroni and Astral Margarita also launching second half.

您也提到了即飲產品。我們對坎特一號的推出感到非常非常滿意。濃縮咖啡、馬丁尼和科斯莫雞尾酒已經上市了。您可以看到，這些產品已經在尼爾森的資料庫中進行了很好的解讀。此外，我們還有新增利內格羅尼和星辰瑪格麗特也將在下半年上市。

So we are upping our game, I would say, across convenience. You mentioned the fundamentals to this. Actually, we do not see it cannibalizing spirits. If you take things in cans that are not beer, that has been fairly flat over the last, I'd say, 3 fiscals as we've looked at it. You had quite a peak during COVID. But as you take a look, it really is sort of trading people up from that seltzer space, right? So seltzers are in decline. And of course, that's still the bulk of those canned things that are not beer. And what you're seeing is growth in FMBs and growth in the cocktails in a can. So what we are seeing there actually is premiumization across that convenience cocktail.

所以我想說，我們正在提升便利商店的競爭力。你提到了基本面。實際上，我們並不認為它會蠶食烈酒市場。就罐裝非啤酒產品而言，據我們觀察，過去三個財年，這類產品的銷售量基本上持平。疫情期間，這類產品銷售量達到了頂峰。但仔細觀察，你會發現，這其實是搶奪蘇打水領域的客戶，對吧？所以蘇打水的銷量正在下降。當然，罐裝非啤酒產品仍然佔據了大部分份額。你看到的是罐裝啤酒和罐裝雞尾酒的成長。所以我們看到的其實是便利雞尾酒的高端化。

And so look, we're going to play it in a way that makes sense for our portfolio, and that will certainly help us from a share perspective and get us in the game. But yes, we're not seeing that, say, cannibalization from core spirits.

所以，你看，我們會以一種對我們投資組合有意義的方式進行佈局，這肯定會從股價角度幫助我們，讓我們參與其中。不過，是的，我們並沒有看到核心烈酒品牌的蠶食現象。

In fact, we're seeing quite the reverse. Like what we are seeing is that consumers coming into Bulleit ready-to-serve, are then choosing to buy -- a lot of them were not Bulleit drinkers are now choosing to buy Bulleit, the base brand. So we are seeing this as being quite incremental to us.

事實上，我們看到的情況恰恰相反。例如，我們看到消費者購買了Bulleit即飲型啤酒後，選擇購買──許多以前不喝Bulleit的消費者現在選擇購買Bulleit這個基礎品牌。所以，我們認為這對我們來說是一個相當大的進步。

Our final question today comes from the line of Andrea Pistacchi from Bank of America.

我們今天的最後一個問題來自美國銀行的 Andrea Pistacchi。

Just wanted to compare a little the U.S. with Europe. So you seem a bit more cautious from the U.S. for the next 6, 12 months given the environment, but you seem more confident on Europe where you're also now lapping some big, big price increases. So the question is, what are you seeing really on the ground in Europe in terms of consumer pricing environment? And what is giving you this incremental confidence? Is the difference that you're gaining share in Europe, is it the tequilas you're rolling out? Or do you think you'll be able to take a bit of more pricing this year?

我想稍微比較一下美國和歐洲的情況。考慮到當前的環境，你們對未來6到12個月的美國市場似乎更加謹慎，但對歐洲市場似乎更有信心，因為歐洲市場現在也經歷了一些大幅的價格上漲。所以問題是，就消費者定價環境而言，你們在歐洲的實際狀況如何？是什麼讓你們越來越有信心？你們在歐洲的市佔率不斷擴大，是因為你們正在推出的龍舌蘭酒嗎？還是你們認為今年你們的定價會比較高？

Yes. I think it's several things, actually. And some of them, you mentioned. We are gaining share across most of Europe, which certainly helps us. And of course, Guinness being a big part of our gain in Ireland and GB, where Guinness is a big business. And so that certainly helps us.

是的。我認為實際上有幾件事。其中一些，正如你所提到的。我們在歐洲大部分地區的市場份額都在成長，這無疑對我們有幫助。當然，健力士在愛爾蘭和英國的市佔率成長很大，健力士在這兩個國家生意興隆。所以這肯定對我們有幫助。

The other thing is how our portfolio is arranged. Actually, in Europe, we have much more of a standard price portfolio. So if you think about -- I talk about our broad portfolio in the U.S., and we do feel like we can go wherever the consumer pivots to, but still super-premium plus is driving the growth in the U.S. market. In Europe, we've got more of a standard price portfolio, which I think is helping us weather what's going on in Europe. And yet we do -- we are gaining with some of the premiumization. So we're really getting both sets of benefits of kind of the now and the future, and we have really a full [PVA] portfolio that is helping us.

另一件事是我們的產品組合是如何安排的。實際上，在歐洲，我們的產品組合更多是標準價格的。所以，如果你仔細想想——我指的是我們在美國廣泛的產品組合，我們確實覺得我們可以迎合消費者的口味變化，但超高端產品仍然是美國市場成長的主要動力。在歐洲，我們的產品組合更像是標準價格的，我認為這有助於我們應對歐洲市場的情況。而且，我們確實透過高端化獲得了一些收益。因此，我們實際上獲得了現在和未來的雙重利益，我們擁有一個真正完整的（PVA）產品組合，這對我們來說非常有利。

But certainly, I will add. We are lapping double digit. We did call that out in the second half. We certainly -- I think we referenced a resilient growth. But this is certainly a tough comp for us in Europe.

當然，我要補充一點。我們的單圈成績達到了兩位數。我們在下半年確實提到了這一點。我們當然——我認為我們提到了強勁的成長。但這對我們在歐洲來說無疑是一個艱難的競爭。