Diageo PLC (DEO) 2024 Q4 法說會逐字稿

Good morning, and welcome to Diageo's F24 preliminary results Q&A conference call. Your call today will be hosted by Debra, Diageo's CEO; and Lavanya, Diageo's CFO. This conference is being recorded. (Operator Instructions) We're now ready to start the call. Debra, please go ahead.

早安，歡迎參加帝亞吉歐 F24 初步業績問答電話會議。今天的電話會議將由帝亞吉歐 (Diageo) 首席執行官黛布拉 (Debra) 主持；以及帝亞吉歐 (Diageo) 財務長拉瓦妮亞 (Lavanya)。本次會議正在錄製中。（操作員說明）我們現在準備開始通話。黛布拉，請繼續。

Good morning and thank you for joining our preliminary results call for fiscal 2024. I hope you've had a chance to read our press release and watch our presentation on diageo.com. Fiscal '24 was a challenging year for both our industry and Diageo as we navigated a volatile operating environment across the globe. Group organic net sales declined 0.6%, and the main driver was materially weaker performance in LAC, our Latin America and Caribbean region.

早安，感謝您參加我們的 2024 財年初步業績徵集活動。我希望您有機會閱讀我們的新聞稿並觀看我們在 diageo.com 上的演示。 24 財年對我們的產業和帝亞吉歐來說都是充滿挑戰的一年，因為我們正在應對全球動盪的營運環境。集團有機淨銷售額下降 0.6%，主要驅動因素是拉丁美洲和加勒比地區 LAC 的業績大幅下滑。

For perspective, if you exclude LAC, organic net sales grew plus 1.8%, driven by resilient growth in Africa, Asia-Pacific, and Europe regions. This offset the decline in North America, which was attributable to a cautious consumer environment, retailer inventory adjustments, and the impact of lapping inventory replenishment in the prior year.

從長遠來看，如果排除拉丁美洲和加勒比地區，在非洲、亞太和歐洲地區的彈性成長的推動下，有機淨銷售額成長了 1.8%。這抵消了北美地區由於謹慎的消費環境、零售商庫存調整以及上一年庫存補充的影響而造成的下降。

We made good progress against our strategic priorities, and we ended fiscal '24 gaining or holding share in over 75% of our net sales value and measured markets, including in the US. We also took deliberate actions to improve on near term execution and these include meeting our commitment to improve our inventory position in LAC, stepping up our route to market across several key markets, including our most significant transformation in at least a decade in our US Spirits organization, and delivering a record productivity savings of nearly $700 million. We've also generated $2.6 billion in free cash-flow while continuing to invest for long-term growth.

我們在策略重點方面取得了良好進展，截至 24 財年，我們獲得或持有了超過 75% 的淨銷售額和可衡量市場的份額，其中包括美國。我們也採取了深思熟慮的行動來改善短期執行，其中包括履行我們改善拉丁美洲和加勒比海地區庫存狀況的承諾，加強我們在幾個關鍵市場的上市路線，包括我們在美國烈酒領域至少十年來最重大的轉型組織，並創紀錄地節省了近 7 億美元的生產力。我們也創造了 26 億美元的自由現金流，同時繼續投資以實現長期成長。

Looking ahead to fiscal '25, the consumer environment continues to be challenging, and we expect the challenges we saw towards the end of fiscal '24 to persist. Our focus continues to be on strengthening our business' resilience and investing smartly and strategic initiatives to enable us to return to growth when the consumer environment improves. I continue to believe in the long-term fundamentals of TBA, Diageo's advantaged position within it, and our ability to grow ahead of TBA and gain quality market share.

展望 25 財年，消費者環境仍充滿挑戰，我們預期 24 財年末遇到的挑戰將持續存在。我們的重點仍然是加強我們的業務彈性和明智的投資和策略舉措，以使我們能夠在消費環境改善時恢復成長。我仍然相信 TBA 的長期基本面、帝亞吉歐在其中的優勢地位，以及我們領先於 TBA 成長並獲得優質市場份額的能力。

We'll open it up for questions. Can we get the questions started?

我們將打開它供提問。我們可以開始提問嗎？

(Operator Instructions)

（操作員說明）

Simon Hales, Citi.

西蒙‧黑爾斯，花旗銀行。

Thank you. Morning, Debra. Morning Lavanya.

謝謝。早上好，黛布拉。早安，拉瓦尼亞。

Hi.

你好。

A couple of questions from me. Hi Debra. I just want to understand, Debra or make sure I understand fully your comments around where inventory levels are in trade as we head into fiscal 2025. I think if I interpreted the remarks and the prepared presentation correctly, what you are saying is that although we could see a further ongoing deterioration in demand and that would naturally lead to some ongoing destocking throughout the supply chain.

我有幾個問題。嗨黛布拉。我只是想了解一下，黛布拉，或確保我完全理解您對 2025 財年庫存水準的評論。我認為，如果我正確地理解了這些言論和準備好的演示文稿，那麼您的意思是，儘管我們可能會看到需求進一步持續惡化，但這自然會導致整個供應鏈持續去庫存。

In the absence of further deterioration in demand, do you think that stock levels are appropriate now in most markets, perhaps with the exception of Mexico. Is that the right way to think about it? Have I got that correct or are you still expecting in the US to see further wholesaler or retailer destocking in the first half? That's my first question.

在需求沒有進一步惡化的情況下，您認為目前大多數市場（也許墨西哥除外）的庫存水準是否合適？這是正確的思考方式嗎？我的說法正確嗎？這是我的第一個問題。

And then secondly, again, in the prepared remarks, I think it was one of Lavanya's slides, she pulled out the different performance through the year of the different price tiers within your portfolio. Clearly, value has outperformed the premium segments of the portfolio this year. I wonder if you could talk about how we've exited the year in terms of the performance of those different price points. Is there any sign at all that premium is starting to see some improvement relative to value, I suppose particularly once we take out the LAC destocking effect?

其次，在準備好的發言中，我認為這是 Lavanya 的一張幻燈片，她在您的投資組合中的不同價格層中展示了一年中的不同表現。顯然，今年價值投資組合的表現優於高端投資組合。我想知道您是否可以談談我們在這些不同價位的表現方面如何結束這一年。有沒有任何跡象表明溢價相對於價值開始出現一些改善，我想特別是在我們消除 LAC 去庫存效應之後？

Yeah, so I'll go ahead and take the first one on inventory levels and step through the world. And then I'll pass to Lavanya to follow-up on the price tier question. So first of all, we ended up in really good inventory levels, I would say, really across the world. Let me start with LAC, since that has been the one that we committed at the interims that we would get back to more appropriate levels and that's where we have done significant destocking, working with the wholesalers and customers in the region.

是的，所以我將繼續在庫存水準上採取第一個行動，並逐步穿越世界。然後我將請 Lavanya 跟進價格等級問題。首先，我想說的是，我們最終在全球範圍內達到了非常好的庫存水準。讓我從 LAC 開始，因為我們在此期間承諾將恢復到更合適的水平，並且我們與該地區的批發商和客戶合作，大幅削減了庫存。

In LAC, we have delivered on the commitment that we set out at the interims. We did call out Mexico specifically in the presentation, and the reason that we did it isn't so much work, we think we have a bunch of inventory left, it's just the volatile environment that we are still seeing in that market. We're still seeing significant competitive activity, there's some down trading in tequila and scotch, which of course is important to us, and we're not gaining share.

在拉丁美洲和加勒比海地區，我們兌現了臨時的承諾。我們確實在演示中特別提到了墨西哥，我們這樣做的原因並不是做太多工作，我們認為我們還有大量庫存，這只是我們在該市場仍然看到的不穩定環境。我們仍然看到顯著的競爭活動，龍舌蘭酒和蘇格蘭威士忌的交易量有所下降，這對我們來說當然很重要，但我們沒有獲得份額。

And so, because of this we do believe we're at certainly more appropriate levels for the environment. But it is still a deteriorating situation, so versus having some big bounce back, we're just calling out that it really is about the consumer situation there. But certainly, we would expect our performance overall to more aligned to that consumer demand going forward. So that's Latin America.

因此，正因為如此，我們確實相信我們確實處於更適合環境的水平。但這仍然是一個不斷惡化的情況，因此，相對於出現一些大幅反彈，我們只是指出，這實際上與那裡的消費者狀況有關。但當然，我們預期我們的整體業績將更符合未來消費者的需求。這就是拉丁美洲。

Stepping around the rest of the globe, we're really seeing very normal forward days cover as we step around the world. We have called out a couple of other inventory things. In APAC, our SJF business, they were quite low going into the last fiscal, just not really knowing when we were going to emerge out of COVID. Then they restocked at the beginning in the first half of our fiscal '23, the back half of the calendar year of '23. And so we are going to have to lap that this year. We're going to have to lap that restocking in China, in APAC.

環遊全球其他地區，當我們環遊世界時，我們確實看到了非常正常的未來日子。我們也提出了其他一些庫存問題。在亞太地區，我們的 SJF 業務，上一財年的業績相當低，只是不知道我們什麼時候才能擺脫新冠疫情的影響。然後他們在 23 財年上半年、23 日曆年下半年開始時重新進貨。所以今年我們必須完成這個目標。我們將不得不在中國和亞太地區進行補貨。

And then also, look, the US situation, we have not -- we are fine on distributor inventory. We have been fine, we ended with the same level of days. We actually have taken out some inventory just getting it appropriate for the environment. But overall, we have complete transparency in the US, so we haven't had any problems at the wholesaler-level at all.

然後，看看美國的情況，我們沒有——我們的經銷商庫存狀況良好。我們一直都很好，我們以同樣水平的日子結束了。實際上，我們已經拿出了一些庫存，只是為了使其適合環境。但總的來說，我們在美國擁有完全的透明度，因此我們在批發商層面上根本沒有遇到任何問題。

And really from a retailer destocking, this is the third round that we see of retailer destocking. Frankly, I think that's more about interest rates remaining high and you just don't see retailers wanting to be cut long. Also if you do the calculation on this, it is not really worth it for them, in many cases, to hold a lot of extra inventory and they're just not wanting to anticipate the consumer at all. Like I said, this is our third round.

實際上，從零售商的去庫存來看，這是我們看到的零售商的第三輪去庫存。坦白說，我認為這更多是因為利率仍然居高不下，而且你只是看不到零售商願意長期降息。另外，如果你對此進行計算，在許多情況下，對他們來說持有大量額外庫存並不值得，而且他們根本不想預測消費者。就像我說的，這是我們的第三輪。

I remember first talking to you guys about this back at our scotch investor day more than a year ago. So this is -- we're now seeing inventory level this is a -- like I said at this point, this really isn't about even the coming out of the pandemic, this is more about just in a high interest rate environment, how they're choosing to manage their stock.

我記得第一次和你們談論這個問題是在一年多前的蘇格蘭投資者日。所以，我們現在看到的庫存水準是——就像我此時所說的，這實際上與大流行的結束無關，這更多的是在高利率環境下，他們選擇如何管理庫存。

So look, I think overall we feel like we are in good position. We do have to navigate, to your point, we are having to navigate a volatile world, but we are managing this quite closely. And as you can imagine, we've gone around and tested the robustness of what we can see. We've strengthened our consumer insights, just making sure that we stay as close as possible to the situation, so we don't have any repeat of where we've been. Lavanya, I'll pass it to you for the performance of Premium question.

所以看，我認為總體而言我們感覺我們處於有利位置。我們確實必須應對，就您的觀點而言，我們必須應對一個動盪的世界，但我們正在非常密切地管理這一點。正如您可以想像的那樣，我們已經四處走訪並測試了我們所看到的內容的穩健性。我們加強了對消費者的洞察，只是確保我們盡可能接近實際情況，這樣我們就不會重蹈覆轍。Lavanya，我將把高級問題的表現轉交給您。

Thank you, Debra. Hello Simon. So let me just start off by framing that while we do see some pockets of down trading across the world, premiumisation continues to be a tailwind for the category and for our business. What's driving the growth of the value here in fiscal '24 has really been the growth of the very strong performance of beer in Africa and other whiskey in India, which other whiskey in India grew almost double digits. So that's what's driving the growth of value tier.

謝謝你，黛布拉。你好西蒙。因此，讓我先指出，雖然我們確實看到世界各地出現了一些下跌交易，但高端化仍然是該類別和我們業務的推動力。推動24財年價值成長的真正原因是非洲啤酒和印度其他威士忌的強勁表現，印度其他威士忌的成長幾乎達到兩位數。這就是推動價值層成長的因素。

If you look at the premium tier and above, that was significantly impacted by Latin America. Latin America is a much more premium business for us and very heavily scotch business as you know. And as we took down the inventory levels in trade in Latin America down to a more appropriate level at the end of the year, that impacted the numbers of the premium tier.

如果你看看高級及以上級別的產品，你會發現它受到拉丁美洲的顯著影響。如您所知，拉丁美洲對我們來說是一個更優質的業務，並且是非常重要的蘇格蘭業務。當我們在年底將拉丁美洲的貿易庫存水準降低到更合適的水平時，這影響了高端市場的數量。

The premiums here would have grown at 3.7%, if you exclude the impact of Latin America. More broadly speaking, it's scotch and tequila which play in our premium and super premium and above price tiers. And if you really look at it in scotch, as Debra shared in her presentation, we are gaining share in 9 out of 10 largest markets.

如果排除拉丁美洲的影響，這裡的保費將增加 3.7%。更廣泛地說，蘇格蘭威士忌和龍舌蘭酒在我們的優質和超優質及以上價格級別中發揮作用。如果你仔細觀察蘇格蘭威士忌，正如 Debra 在她的演講中分享的那樣，我們正在 10 個最大市場中的 9 個市場中獲得份額。

So this is a business that's in good health and as we look at some of the one-time things that happened in fiscal '24 and actually back even in fiscal '23, like the sale of final inventories in Russia as well as the replenishment of inventory levels in North America, we will come out of these in a positive phase. If you look at our largest region in the US, more than 100% of the growth of the category's still coming from the super-premium and above price segments. So premiumisation does continue to be a tailwind for us and these numbers. That's why we took some time to explain these numbers out in the presentation.

因此，這是一項健康狀況良好的業務，我們看看 24 財年發生的一些一次性事件，甚至在 23 財年實際上又回來了，例如在俄羅斯銷售最終庫存以及補充北美的庫存水平，我們將走出困境。如果你看看我們在美國最大的地區，你會發現該類別 100% 以上的增長仍然來自超高端及以上價格段。因此，高端化確實繼續成為我們和這些數字的推動力。這就是為什麼我們花了一些時間在簡報中解釋這些數字。

Yeah, one other thing I'll just add to what Lavanya said, tequila also did impact this. So I think we shared a couple of these in the press release but just to highlight for you, remember we were lapping the restocking of tequila because this was one that, because of the high demand, we recovered late from the glass shortages.

是的，我要補充拉瓦尼亞所說的另一件事，龍舌蘭酒也確實對此產生了影響。因此，我認為我們在新聞稿中分享了其中的一些內容，但只是為了向您強調，請記住，我們正在重新補充龍舌蘭酒，因為由於需求量大，我們從玻璃短缺中恢復較晚。

So tequila's impacting this as well. If you take a look at Don Julio, the underlying depletions, I think a plus 21% compared to the shipments show up as plus 12%. By the way, those underlying depletions do align with the Nielsen NABCA consumption as well, of plus 20%. And then Casamigos is showing that minus 22%. Actually if you look at depletions, while still down, it's only down minus 9%. If you look at the Nielsen NABCA on the last 12 months, it's minus 7%. So you can see through there, that definitely impacted that shipment analysis and that would've shown up in the super premium tier. Thank you, Simon.

龍舌蘭酒也對此產生了影響。如果你看看 Don Julio，潛在的消耗，我認為與出貨量相比增加了 21%，顯示為增加了 12%。順便說一句，這些潛在的消耗也與 Nielsen NABCA 消耗量一致，增加了 20%。然後Casamigos 顯示負22%。事實上，如果你看看消耗量，雖然仍然下降，但只下降了負 9%。如果你看看尼爾森 NABCA 過去 12 個月的數據，你會發現它是負 7%。因此，您可以從那裡看到，這肯定會影響出貨量分析，並且會顯示在超優質層中。謝謝你，西蒙。

Very helpful. Thank you.

非常有幫助。謝謝。

Edward Mundy, Jefferies.

愛德華‧蒙迪，傑弗里斯。

Morning, Debra. Morning Lavanya. Two questions from me as well, please. The first is really on your best estimate on the time of recovery for the industry within the US. And I know on slide nine you've given some quite useful charts just showing the more recent trends. I guess first part is what do you think the industry is growing at distills versus RTDs? Are you able to put any timeframe on when you think the industry might get back to that sort of mid-single digit run rate?

早上好，黛布拉。早安，拉瓦尼亞。還有兩個問題請教我。第一個實際上是對美國該行業復甦時間的最佳估計。我知道您在第九張投影片上提供了一些非常有用的圖表，僅顯示了最新的趨勢。我想第一部分是您認為蒸餾酒產業與 RTD 產業的成長如何？當您認為該行業可能恢復到中等個位數的運作率時，您是否能夠設定任何時間表？

And then what do you think is the bridge to get back towards that mid-single digit run rate? Is it volumes, is it mix, is it price, is it RTDs rolling, is it the de-stocking come to an end? I mean how do you think about the bridge back towards that sort of 4 to 5-ish runway rate? That's on the US.

那麼您認為恢復中個位數運行率的橋樑是什麼？是數量、結構、價格、RTD 滾動還是去庫存結束？我的意思是，您如何看待這座恢復 4 到 5 左右跑道率的橋樑？那是在美國。

And the second question is on Guinness, if I can. It's a brand that's very well distributed and you haven't really grown through distribution gains because most pubs in both UK and Ireland have it, so you've essentially brought new consumers into it or you've got existing consumers to drink more. Could you maybe just deconstruct what's made Guinness so successful, such a good story? Do you think it's going to be sticky and are there any learnings from Guinness that can be applied to some of your other brands?

第二個問題是關於金氏世界紀錄，如果可以的話。這是一個分佈非常廣泛的品牌，你並沒有真正透過分銷收益來成長，因為英國和愛爾蘭的大多數酒吧都有它，所以你基本上已經吸引了新的消費者，或者你讓現有的消費者喝了更多。您能否解構一下金氏世界紀錄如此成功、如此精彩的故事的原因？您認為它會具有黏性嗎？

Yeah, I'll start with -- let me start with the US and then I'll come back to Guinness. So look, so going through the industry, I mean, we do believe that in fiscal '24 the US industry grew in low-single digits. If you take a look at that and break that out, it was probably more 1% to 2% if you include things like the spirits-based RTDs, it was probably more flat to 1%, if you think about core spirits. So and look, it wasn't even through the year. So we were seeing improvements and then it dipped down, and then we saw a slight improvement again and then it dipped down. But it most likely is in the low single digits as you look at it.

是的，我將從——讓我從美國開始，然後我會回到吉尼斯。所以，縱觀整個產業，我的意思是，我們確實相信，在 24 財年，美國產業的成長率是低個位數。如果你看一下並打破它，如果你包括像基於烈酒的 RTD 之類的東西，它可能會更多 1% 到 2%，如果你考慮核心烈酒，它可能會更平坦到 1%。所以你看，這一年還沒過去。所以我們看到了改善，然後它下降了，然後我們再次看到了輕微的改善，然後又下降了。但從你的觀察來看，它很可能是低個位數。

And if you look at NABCA, because that captures everything, it's not the most vibrant states, but because it captures everything, that gives you a good point in context. Volumes were down on core spirits if you exclude all the RTDs, but two-thirds of that volume decline is in vodka and rum. So I look at that and you look at the heat that you still have on the tequila category, which is growing at things like plus 7%, still even tucked into that low-single digit number, and I think the mix for us still makes us feel good. Because remember our North American whiskey business is bigger than our vodka and rum business.

如果你看看 NABCA，因為它捕捉到了一切，它不是最有活力的狀態，但因為它捕捉到了一切，這給了你一個很好的背景。如果排除所有即飲飲料，核心烈酒的銷量有所下降，但銷量下降的三分之二是伏特加和蘭姆酒。所以我看看，你看看龍舌蘭酒類別仍然有熱度，它的增長速度約為 7%，甚至仍然處於低個位數，我認為我們的組合仍然使我們感覺很好。因為請記住，我們的北美威士忌業務比我們的伏特加和朗姆酒業務更大。

So as we look at the industry, it's sitting there in low single digits, but it is being dragged down by volume. Price mix actually in the industry is holding up okay, so it really is about volumes. In price mix you would want to break out between the ready to drink and core spirits, the bottle. Core spirits price mix was probably two to three. We were above that for the year, so we look at that and feel pretty good.

因此，當我們審視該行業時，它的成長率仍處於較低的個位數，但它正受到銷量的拖累。實際上，該行業的價格組合保持良好，所以這確實與銷量有關。在價格組合上，您可能希望在即飲型烈酒和瓶裝烈酒之間進行突破。核心烈酒的價格組合可能是兩到三種。我們這一年的表現都高於這個水平，所以我們看到這一點並感覺非常好。

When you have RTDs in there it does bring down the price mix, so I do think it's important to break that out. But I think on core spirits, price mix is starting to work its way back. And it's because, as Lavanya mentioned earlier, actually over 100% of the growth is in the super premium plus price tier in the industry.

當你有 RTD 時，它確實會降低價格組合，所以我認為解決這個問題很重要。但我認為，就核心烈酒而言，價格組合正開始回升。這是因為，正如 Lavanya 之前提到的，實際上超過 100% 的增長來自於行業中的超溢價加價格層。

We also saw household penetration, of core spirits of plus 2%. So what you're seeing when you see these lower volumes is really the units per basket are down and that is from vodka and rum, these are the more standard spirits. And so those are those households that are under pressure that are buying a little less. We're not really seeing the down trading: when people do go into buy, they are buying still the brands that they want.

我們也看到核心烈酒的家庭滲透率增加了 2%。因此，當您看到這些較低的銷售量時，您所看到的實際上是每個籃子的單位數量下降了，這些酒來自伏特加和朗姆酒，這些酒是更標準的烈酒。這些家庭面臨壓力，購買量減少。我們並沒有真正看到下跌交易：當人們確實購買時，他們購買的仍然是他們想要的品牌。

And then we are still seeing spirits gain from beer and wine in the US. So overall, TBA household penetration is flattish, spirits, plus 1%, beer is kind of flat, and then wine we're seeing as minus 1%. So that's a little bit about the industry, as far as the timeframe to recovery, when you break through all the noise and get around all these shipments and laps, what is it going to take to get back? Well, we clearly need to finish the rollout of all of that COVID supercycle. Fortunately, I think we're largely at the end of that.

在美國，我們仍然看到烈酒從啤酒和葡萄酒中受益。總體而言，TBA 家庭滲透率持平，烈酒增加 1%，啤酒持平，然後我們認為葡萄酒為負 1%。因此，這與行業有關，就恢復的時間範圍而言，當您突破所有噪音並繞過所有這些發貨和圈數時，需要什麼才能恢復？好吧，我們顯然需要完成所有新冠超級週期的推出。幸運的是，我認為我們基本上已經結束了。

Certainly, from our big laps, we don't have that in our numbers as we roll forward. So that's a positive. But the consumer recovery, I do think things like rate cuts will certainly help, if we get a rate cut in the US. The uncertainty with things like the political environment, when you look into consumer, sentiment, that's weighing on consumers a bit. Because we're even seeing consumers with a little extra money being a little more cautious in their spending.

當然，從我們的大圈來看，當我們向前滾動時，我們的數據中並沒有這樣的數據。所以這是積極的。但對於消費者復甦，我確實認為，如果我們在美國降息，降息之類的事情肯定會有所幫助。當你研究消費者情緒時，政治環境等因素的不確定性會給消費者帶來一些壓力。因為我們甚至看到有一點額外錢的消費者在消費時更加謹慎。

So it really is hard to predict. I know I said six months ago that it would be six to 18 months. The only update I'll give you is that it wasn't six months and it was not linear as we've said. There was a great July 4, if you saw the Nielsen for July 4, we started to see we had pretty decent spirits growth there on July, but sentiment is still quite cautious. So I'm just hesitant to put out any timeframe on it. What we're trying to do is really set ourselves up with getting back to share growth. We've got great share momentum in the US on core spirits. Not just in TBA, but on core spirits. And so that's really what we're focused on getting back there.

所以這確實很難預測。我知道我六個月前說過，這將是六到十八個月。我要告訴你的唯一更新是，這不是六個月，也不是我們所說的線性的。7 月 4 日是一個偉大的日子，如果你看到 7 月 4 日的尼爾森，我們開始看到 7 月烈酒增長相當不錯，但市場情緒仍然相當謹慎。所以我只是猶豫是否要給任何時間表。我們正在努力做的是真正讓自己重新分享成長。我們在美國的核心烈酒方面擁有巨大的份額動力。不僅是在待定方面，而且在核心精神方面。所以這確實是我們要回到那裡的重點。

Guinness let's talk about Guinness, because Guinness is a great news story. So plus 15%, and it's being driven in our largest markets. And even in our home market of Ireland, to your point, there's not a lot of places you can't buy Guinness in Ireland. That being said, I do think the innovation agenda has helped us tremendously. The Nitro Surge that's the cap. We don't have it in the US but in Ireland and GB, it's a cap you can put on the top of the Guinness can and it gives you just the perfect pour of Guinness. That has done really well for us.

吉尼斯讓我們來談談吉尼斯，因為吉尼斯是一個偉大的新聞故事。加上 15%，這是在我們最大的市場中推動的。即使在我們的愛爾蘭本土市場，就您而言，在愛爾蘭也沒有很多地方買不到吉尼斯黑啤酒。話雖這麼說，我確實認為創新議程對我們幫助很大。Nitro Surge 這就是帽子。我們在美國沒有它，但在愛爾蘭和英國，您可以將它放在吉尼斯罐頭上，它可以為您提供完美的吉尼斯啤酒。這對我們來說確實很好。

Guinness 0.0 is just -- we literally can't make enough of it. We've more than doubled the business in GB as well, that's really helping us. I would say from a consumer standpoint, we've broadened the consumer, we still have the classic rugby lads, but we are also bringing in more women into the franchise and we're just continuing. Also, from a marketing and experience, I think the brand's done some really great social media. We've let consumers take over some of the conversation about where's the best pint poured, which people really get into this. And so that's been really great.

吉尼斯 0.0 是——我們真的無法充分利用它。我們在英國的業務也增加了一倍多，這對我們確實有幫助。我想說，從消費者的角度來看，我們已經擴大了消費者範圍，我們仍然擁有經典的橄欖球小伙子，但我們也將更多的女性引入特許經營權，我們只是在繼續。另外，從行銷和經驗來看，我認為該品牌在社群媒體上做了一些非常出色的工作。我們讓消費者接手了一些關於哪裡是最好的品脫啤酒的對話，人們真正感興趣的是哪些。這真的很棒。

And so what I do think is sustainable is I think we have built -- we've stayed very true to the liquid, we've stayed true to the consumer while expanding that base. And look, we just signed -- we're official sponsors of the Premier League and we're very excited about that. We've got a great history with six nations but of course Premier League is quite a global audience and so we're excited about where that can take Guinness going forward.

因此，我認為可持續的是，我認為我們已經建立了——我們對液體非常忠誠，我們在擴大基礎的同時對消費者保持忠誠。看，我們剛剛簽約——我們是英超聯賽的官方贊助商，我們對此感到非常興奮。我們與六個國家有著悠久的歷史，但當然，英超聯賽有相當多的全球觀眾，因此我們對這可以帶領吉尼斯向前邁進感到興奮。

Great, thank you.

太好了，謝謝。

Thank you, Ed.

謝謝你，艾德。

(Operator Instructions)

（操作員說明）

Celine Pannuti, JPMorgan.

席琳潘努蒂，摩根大通。

Yes, good morning, Debra and Lavanya. Sorry, I have one question and one follow up. So my first question is just wanted to understand your clarification of your outlook. Are you hinting, because you said that growth will return when consumer confidence will return, so are you hinting to flat organic growth for fiscal year '25? And within that, what are the moving parts? Because I saw that your price mix, even though you mentioned was positive in the US, de-accelerated to 0.7% in the second half. So is price mix still positive as you take that into fiscal year '25?

是的，早上好，黛布拉和拉瓦妮亞。抱歉，我有一個問題和一個後續問題。所以我的第一個問題只是想了解您對觀點的澄清。您是否在暗示，因為您說過，當消費者信心恢復時，經濟成長就會恢復，那麼您是否在暗示 25 財年的有機成長將持平？其中，有哪些活動部件？因為我看到你們的價格組合，儘管你提到在美國是積極的，但在下半年減速至 0.7%。那麼，當您將其納入 25 財年時，價格組合仍然是正面的嗎？

And then I think you also mentioned that organic EBIT margin will be aligned with H2, which was 100 basis points. So is that as well the base for fiscal year '25? And within that, could you elaborate a bit which regions are driving this decline?

然後我想您也提到有機息稅前利潤率將與下半年保持一致，即 100 個基點。那麼這也是 25 財年的基礎嗎？您能否詳細說明哪些地區正在推動這種下降？

Then my second question is really on the midterm outreach where you have not yet seen when the demand will be turned, I mean, CapEx investment is quite elevated now for several years. You have more than doubled your CapEx investment and you continue to invest in maturing inventory. I want to understand what kind of volume growth underpins these investments and whether your consumer insights program that we're rolling out, how has it informed you in terms of behavior versus structural in terms of the weakening demand in volume? Thank you.

那麼我的第二個問題其實是關於中期外展，你還沒有看到需求何時會轉變，我的意思是，資本支出投資在過去幾年中相當高。您的資本支出投資增加了一倍多，並且您繼續投資於到期庫存。我想了解什麼樣的銷售成長支撐著這些投資，以及我們是否正在推出您的消費者洞察計劃，它如何在行為與結構方面為您提供銷售需求疲軟的資訊？謝謝。

Okay. I'll start with the first on fiscal '25 and a little bit about our guidance there. Look, what we're saying there is when the consumer environment improves, we will return to growth. So as far as where does that land upon the year, it really does depend upon when we start seeing some of these better trends on the consumer. While we certainly exited the year with more momentum with our share gains, the category in the industry more limped into the end of the fiscal. And so that's what we're pointing out.

好的。我將從 25 財年的第一個開始，並介紹我們的指導。看，我們所說的是，當消費環境改善時，我們將恢復成長。因此，就今年而言，這確實取決於我們何時開始在消費者身上看到一些更好的趨勢。雖然我們在今年結束時確實以更大的勢頭和份額增長，但該行業的類別在本財年結束時更加緩慢。這就是我們要指出的。

So whether it's going to be flat or above will depend upon when that consumer environment improves. And so that's why we're flagging that exit rate on the industry in the US. Look, I think operating margins, we flagged also the negative pressure there. So that pressure's coming from multiple places. It really is about -- and you mentioned, first of all, North America.

因此，它是否會持平或更高將取決於消費環境何時改善。這就是為什麼我們要標記美國該產業的退出率。看，我認為營業利潤率，我們也標記了那裡的負面壓力。所以壓力來自多個地方。這確實是關於——你首先提到了北美。

North America price mix, we would expect to be positive. Part of what did impact us in the second half is, remember these tequila numbers. The tequila numbers that we talked through, the difference in the shipments versus the underlying consumer. So that's one that definitely negatively impact us, as we had to lapse that tequila restocking from the prior year and so that's going on underneath that.

北美價格組合，我們預計將是積極的。下半年對我們產生影響的部分原因是，記住這些龍舌蘭酒的數字。我們討論的龍舌蘭酒數據，即出貨量與潛在消費者的差異。所以這肯定會對我們產生負面影響，因為我們不得不停止前一年的龍舌蘭酒補貨，所以這就是在這之下發生的。

So now moving on to margins, several things, so the strategic investments that we made in the second half of the year will of course carry over into the first half. We talked about the digital investments that we're making and also some of the route to market investments that we've made as well. So that continues, and by the way, that would've hit some of our North America margins in the second half.

現在轉向利潤率，有幾件事，所以我們在下半年進行的策略性投資當然會延續到上半年。我們討論了我們正在進行的數位投資以及我們已經進行的一些市場投資途徑。因此，這種情況繼續下去，順便說一句，這將在下半年影響我們北美的一些利潤。

We also -- things like salary inflation, particularly in emerging markets, is another place where we would expect that to continue to roll forward. Also that pressure on the top line, and particularly the pressure on the top line in NAM, does impact our margins. It does impact the leverage that we get with our cost structure. So that's why if the year improves, you do see that coming right along with growth. So we are very focused on productivity and pricing to really offset inflation, but these are some of the mechanical things and the roll forwards, et cetera that we're seeing from the second half and the first half that we're trying to flag.

我們也——薪資通膨之類的事情，特別是在新興市場，是我們預期這種情況將繼續向前發展的另一個地方。此外，營收的壓力，尤其是 NAM 營收的壓力，確實影響了我們的利潤率。它確實影響了我們在成本結構中所獲得的槓桿作用。這就是為什麼如果今年有所改善，你確實會看到這種情況隨著成長而出現。因此，我們非常關註生產力和定價，以真正抵消通貨膨脹，但這些是我們從下半年和上半年看到的一些機械因素和前滾，等等，我們試圖標記。

I don't know if you would add anything to that, Lavanya?

我不知道你是否願意添加任何內容，Lavanya？

No, I think you covered it perfectly.

不，我認為你完美地涵蓋了它。

And then on the midterm, so for CapEx, do you want to talk about a little bit of our CapEx spending this year and where it was?

然後在中期，對於資本支出，您想談談我們今年的資本支出支出以及支出在哪裡嗎？

Sure. So Celine, when we think about CapEx and maturing stock, let me just start with maturing stock maybe and then come to CapEx. Maturing stock, the way we think about the investments we make in maturing stock is really looking at long-term projected volume growth rates. And this is based off of both looking at historic volume growth rates but also modelling forward based on what we see happening with the consumer.

當然。因此，Celine，當我們考慮資本支出和到期股票時，讓我先從到期股票開始，然後再談談資本支出。到期股票，我們考慮對到期股票進行投資的方式實際上是著眼於長期預期的銷售成長率。這是基於對歷史銷售成長率的研究，也是基於我們所看到的消費者發生的情況進行預測的模型。

And so these are not based on the next three years or the next five years volume growth rate, but much longer-term projections of volume growth rate. And the way to think about it perhaps from a modelling perspective would be to the easiest way would be sort of looking at historic volume growth base, which typically would have been a combination of population growth as well as the growth from consumers moving out of beer and wine into spirits.

因此，這些並不是基於未來三年或未來五年的銷售成長率，而是基於更長期的銷售成長率預測。也許從建模的角度來考慮這個問題，最簡單的方法就是查看歷史銷量增長基礎，這通常是人口增長以及消費者不再購買啤酒的增長的結合。

And then the third is volume growth that you get in emerging markets as GDP and earnings levels increase in these emerging markets. So the combination of the three is what really drives the maturing stock investments.

第三個是隨著這些新興市場的 GDP 和收入水準的提高，新興市場的銷售成長。因此，這三者的結合才是真正推動股票投資成熟的因素。

On CapEx, a significant portion of our CapEx investment this year was projects that we had announced. So we started the construction of a second distillery, or a second brewery for Guinness in Ireland. And if you look at the growth rates that we've had on Guinness this year, you can understand why we need to put in that investment. And Guinness is an extremely asset light model. Unlike regular beer businesses, most of our global Guinness volume comes out of one factory in Ireland, which we are now trying to build the second one also to keep pace with the growth of Guinness 0.0. So that's been a part of it.

在資本支出方面，我們今年資本支出投資的很大一部分是我們已經宣布的項目。因此，我們開始在愛爾蘭建造第二家釀酒廠，或者說是吉尼斯黑啤酒的第二家啤酒廠。如果你看看我們今年吉尼斯世界紀錄的成長率，你就會明白為什麼我們需要投入這項投資。而吉尼斯是個極為輕資產的模式。與常規啤酒業務不同，我們全球吉尼斯啤酒的大部分銷售都來自愛爾蘭的一家工廠，我們現在正在努力建造第二家工廠，以跟上吉尼斯 0.0 的成長步伐。這就是其中的一部分。

The other project that I will mention is we are building out a new distillery for single malt whiskey in China, in Yunnan. Now that's going to come -- that's we just started to make liquid to put into barrels now, we're not going to see the benefit of that come through for many, many years. But it'll be delicious liquid, I'm sure, when it comes out.

我要提到的另一個項目是我們正在中國雲南建設一家新的單一麥芽威士忌釀酒廠。現在這一切即將到來——我們現在才開始生產液體並放入桶中，我們在很多很多年內都不會看到它的好處。但我確信，當它出來時，它會是美味的液體。

But again, the reason I mentioned these is because a lot of our capital investments are of this nature. They are much more long-term in nature, and that's what's driving the CapEx growth. What we have guided to is that we do expect this level of CapEx investment to stay on fiscal '25 and '26 and then come back down as a percentage of NSV, back to historic levels after that.

但同樣，我提到這些的原因是因為我們的資本投資很多都屬於這種性質。它們本質上更加長期，這就是推動資本支出成長的原因。我們的指導是，我們確實預計資本支出投資水準將保持在 25 財年和 26 財年，然後以佔 NSV 的百分比的形式回落，之後回到歷史水準。

And then I think you had a final question of consumer insights. And just what we were doing around consumer insights. And so, yeah, look, we are strengthening our -- and I mentioned this consumer choice framework, this is our proprietary network -- our network data.

然後我認為你有一個關於消費者洞察的最後一個問題。這正是我們圍繞消費者洞察所做的事情。所以，是的，看，我們正在加強我們的——我提到了這個消費者選擇框架，這是我們的專有網路——我們的網路數據。

This is our proprietary data that we use to look at occasions and how those are growing around the world. Some of that we featured at our Capital Markets Day, but we are taking it to all of our major markets and that will be in place really by the end of the calendar year. We will literally have it everywhere that we want it to be. And that's enabling us to really identify these pockets of growth and actively move resources.

這是我們的專有數據，我們用它來了解事件以及這些事件在世界各地的成長。我們在資本市場日上展示了其中一些內容，但我們正在將其推廣到所有主要市場，並將在今年年底真正到位。我們確實可以在任何我們想要的地方擁有它。這使我們能夠真正識別這些增長點並積極轉移資源。

And in this volatile environment, it has been very important for us to get underneath and to be able to shift as appropriate. And we have done that in several places just to make sure that we are getting the right A&P deployed in the right place, the right liquid allocations put in the right place, and where we've decided to invest in route to market. And of course, this even goes down into our US route to market changes as well.

在這個動盪的環境中，對我們來說，保持低調並能夠適當地轉變是非常重要的。我們在幾個地方這樣做只是為了確保我們將正確的 A&P 部署在正確的地方，將正確的流動性配置放在正確的地方，以及我們決定投資市場的地方。當然，這甚至也影響到我們美國市場路線的變化。

Thank you.

謝謝。

Mitch Colett, Deutsche Bank.

米奇‧科萊特，德意志銀行。

Thanks. First question, given you're retaining your 5% to 7% medium term guidance, I appreciate next year feels a long way off, but it sounds like fiscal '25 is unlikely to be back in that range. Can you give us your sense of confidence that perhaps fiscal '26 could see you within that range? And really other than the consumer changing, is there anything you can do to get yourself back there?

謝謝。第一個問題，鑑於您保留 5% 至 7% 的中期指導，我很高興明年感覺還有很長的路要走，但聽起來 25 財年不太可能回到這個範圍。您能否告訴我們您對 26 財年的信心可能會達到這個範圍？事實上，除了消費者的改變之外，你還能做些什麼來讓自己回到原來的狀態嗎？

And then as an add-on to that, my second question is, it's obviously been a very challenging year for spirits as a category, and by the sounds of it, it's been getting more challenging as the year has progressed. So what gives you the confidence that those challenges are cyclical and not structural? And I'd love to get your thought process around why you think things will recover. Thank you.

作為補充，我的第二個問題是，對於烈酒作為一個類別來說，這顯然是非常具有挑戰性的一年，而且聽起來，隨著​​這一年的進展，它變得越來越具有挑戰性。那麼，是什麼讓您確信這些挑戰是週期性的而不是結構性的呢？我很樂意了解您的思考過程，了解為什麼您認為事情會恢復。謝謝。

Yeah, I mean, so let's talk a little bit about the medium term guidance. And we have flagged that, yes, certainly for fiscal '25, given the current consumer environment, we're really focused on driving execution, strengthening our resilience and market share, and that when the consumer environment improves, we will return to growth. And depending upon where that happens in the year that will be how we progress back.

是的，我的意思是，讓我們談談中期指導。我們已經指出，是的，當然在25 財年，考慮到當前的消費者環境，我們真正專注於推動執行力、增強我們的彈性和市場份額，並且當消費者環境改善時，我們將恢復成長。取決於這一年發生的情況，我們將如何取得進展。

We do remain confident in the long-term fundamentals and do believe this is not structural but is more cyclical and near term in nature. If you think about what underpins the fundamentals of our medium-term guidance, the demographic trends, the rising incomes in developing world, spirits gaining share of occasions from beer and wine, the longstanding trend of premiumization. I walked through some of those in the US where you can continue to see that spirits is gaining share from beer and wine occasions, the longstanding trend of premiumization being there.

我們確實對長期基本面保持信心，並相信這不是結構性的，而是更具週期性和近期性。如果你想想我們中期指導的基本面是什麼，人口趨勢、發展中國家收入的成長、烈酒從啤酒和葡萄酒中獲得份額、高端化的長期趨勢。我瀏覽了美國的一些展會，您可以繼續看到烈酒正在從啤酒和葡萄酒場合中獲得份額，高端化的長期趨勢就在那裡。

You see what's happening for us in India, some of our Africa markets, on spirits growth. And then look, demo trends, I know there's been a lot of noise about Gen Z, so let me talk about that for a second because actually as we look at Gen Z in the US, and while they're reporting higher preference for moderation, we're actually seeing spirits penetration up plus 3%.

你可以看到我們在印度和一些非洲市場在烈酒成長方面所發生的情況。然後看看演示趨勢，我知道關於 Z 世代的聲音很多，所以讓我談談這一點，因為實際上當我們觀察美國的 Z 世代時，雖然他們報告說更傾向於節制，我們實際上看到烈酒滲透率增加了3%。

And in fact they're more likely to purchase spirits than millennials were at the same age. And so we are seeing -- and look, whether it's the RTDs that are now in the spirit space that are bringing people into spirits earlier, but we really see those demo trends, we don't see that working against us, we really do see that supporting the ongoing long-term trends that we've seen.

事實上，他們比同齡的千禧世代更有可能購買烈酒。所以我們看到——看看，現在在精神空間中的 RTD 是否正在讓人們更早地精神起來，但我們確實看到了這些演示趨勢，我們沒有看到這對我們不利，我們確實看到了看到這支持了我們所看到的持續的長期趨勢。

And things like premiumization, look, we did see down trading in Europe and in APAC, but their price mix actually was plus 4%, so you had nice performance there on premiumization within our portfolio. We can handle that within our broad portfolio. We were still able to get that despite what was happening. So that's some of the things that we can do to pull forward on our own destiny.

諸如高端化之類的事情，我們確實看到歐洲和亞太地區的交易量下降，但他們的價格組合實際上增加了 4%，因此我們的投資組合中的高端化表現良好。我們可以在我們廣泛的產品組合中處理這個問題。儘管發生了這些事情，我們仍然能夠得到它。這就是我們可以做的一些事情來推動我們自己的命運。

And this is why I do believe our portfolio is positioned really well in the right categories. When you look at what is still growing, it is tequila, it is we're seeing pockets of whiskey also continuing to do well. While there's some down trading in there, we've got a nice broad portfolio that can catch people. So that's why we're really focused on this quality market share, because that helps us outperform even in a more pressured market.

這就是為什麼我確實相信我們的產品組合在正確的類別中定位非常好。當你看看仍在增長的產品時，你會發現它是龍舌蘭酒，我們看到一些威士忌也繼續表現良好。雖然那裡有一些下跌的交易，但我們有一個很好的廣泛的投資組合可以吸引人們。因此，這就是我們真正關注優質市場份額的原因，因為這有助於我們即使在壓力更大的市場中也能表現出色。

But we do believe those long-term fundamentals are there and that this really will be much more about consumers and some of the volume pressure that we're feeling on consumers, maybe little bit, they're drinking further down into their bar that maybe they had built up during COVID. So the further we're getting away from this super cycle and we're really into more of a normal cycle. We are seeing consumers come back and buying. It's just they had their own inventory. Now you go into an economic pressured situation and we are seeing a little less volume than what you would expect. But don't forget the noise also that we have in some of the volume that will roll off as we go forward.

但我們確實相信這些長期基本面是存在的，這實際上更多地與消費者有關，以及我們對消費者感受到的一些銷售壓力，也許是一點點，他們在酒吧里喝得更多，也許它們是在新冠疫情期間累積起來的。因此，我們距離這個超級週期越遠，我們就真正進入了一個正常的週期。我們看到消費者回來購買。只是他們有自己的庫存。現在你進入了經濟壓力的境地，我們看到的數量比你預期的要少一些。但不要忘記，隨著我們前進，某些音量中的噪音也會逐漸減弱。

What haven't I addressed? Good. Very good. Thank you.

我還沒解決什麼問題？好的。非常好。謝謝。

Olivier Nicolai, Goldman Sachs.

奧利維爾·尼科萊，高盛。

Hi. Good morning, Debra and Lavanya. Just a question on disposal. You sold a few non-core brands over the years at Diageo, including some beer assets as well in Africa and more recently in Nigeria. Is there much more to do in terms of disposals of non-core spirit assets, which could ultimately boost the top line for Diageo and also help to reduce the leverage? Is there more to do on the spirits side? Is it more actually perhaps exiting a bit more beer market in Africa, for instance? And then in the context of that, do you see this as a path to reduce group net debt to EBITDA and potentially reinstate share buyback in the future? Thank you.

你好。早上好，黛布拉和拉瓦尼婭。只是關於處置的問題。多年來，您在帝亞吉歐出售了一些非核心品牌，包括在非洲以及最近在尼日利亞的一些啤酒資產。在處置非核心烈酒資產方面是否還有更多工作要做，這最終可能會提高帝亞吉歐的收入並有助於降低槓桿？在精神方面還有更多事情要做嗎？例如，它實際上可能會退出更多的非洲啤酒市場嗎？那麼在這種背景下，您是否認為這是減少集團淨債務與 EBITDA 比率並有可能在未來恢復股票回購的一條途徑？謝謝。

Yeah, I think we've always been active portfolio managers and, look, and particularly on Guinness, we've had an asset light strategy for handling that business as we move around the world. So we're quite happy with the disposals that we've made this year because it really does follow along trends that we're seeing. We talked about, a year ago, about getting out of some kind of the more local and mainstream spirits trends in India, and it's because we saw the premiumization there we're convicted around that. That will continue. That premiumization journey would continue, so we felt like it was the right time to get out and exit from some of those brands. Likewise, we see that in some of these disposals that we're doing in Europe as well.

是的，我認為我們一直是積極的投資組合經理，而且，特別是在吉尼斯，我們有一個輕資產策略來處理我們在世界各地移動的業務。因此，我們對今年的處置非常滿意，因為它確實遵循了我們所看到的趨勢。一年前，我們談到要擺脫印度某種更本地化和主流的烈酒趨勢，這是因為我們看到了那裡的高端化，我們對此深信不疑。這將繼續下去。這種高端化之旅將繼續下去，所以我們覺得現在是退出其中一些品牌的正確時機。同樣，我們在歐洲所做的一些處置中也看到了這一點。

And then on Africa, I mean, we do feel very good about Nigeria because what that's doing is it really is helping us from a bottom line perspective as well and just the volatility that you get in currencies there, but it's also going to help us continue to grow our business. Because Tolaram has this amazing distribution network that we can get to a lot more places than what we would've been able to do working off of the brewery footprint that we had.

然後在非洲，我的意思是，我們確實對尼日利亞感覺非常好，因為它所做的確實是從底線的角度幫助我們，以及那裡的貨幣波動，但它也會幫助我們繼續發展我們的業務。因為 Tolaram 擁有令人驚嘆的分銷網絡，我們可以到達比我們現有的啤酒廠足跡所能到達的更多的地方。

So disposals are a key piece of this and the non-core pieces of it. I'm, of course, not going to comment on anything that we would necessarily be looking at going forward, but it is to say that we are active in taking a look at that and doing what we need to do based on long term strategy. And it certainly does also help us on this walk back on EBITDA. And our capital allocation strategy remains unchanged and when we have that excess capital, we will return that to shareholders. Thank you.

因此，處置是其中的關鍵部分，也是其中的非核心部分。當然，我不會對我們未來必然要考慮的任何事情發表評論，但這就是說，我們正在積極研究這個問題，並根據長期策略做我們需要做的事情。這當然也有助於我們回歸 EBITDA。我們的資本配置策略保持不變，當我們擁有多餘資本時，我們會將其回饋給股東。謝謝。

Sanjeet Aujla, UBS.

桑吉特‧奧吉拉，瑞銀。

Good morning Debra and Lavanya. A couple from me please. Firstly, just going back to the US, please can you give us your take on the pricing environment, particularly in tequila and whiskey? We are noticing an intensification of commercial activity, so just love to get your take on how you're navigating that across your brand portfolio. And more specifically on tequila, we've observed down trading within Blanco tequila over the last several quarters, do you think that's cyclical or structural?

早上好，黛布拉和拉瓦尼婭。請從我這裡來幾張。首先，回到美國，您能否告訴我們您對定價環境的看法，特別是龍舌蘭酒和威士忌？我們注意到商業活動的加劇，因此很想了解您如何在品牌組合中駕馭這項活動。更具體地說，在龍舌蘭酒方面，我們觀察到過去幾季布蘭科龍舌蘭酒的交易量下降，您認為這是周期性的還是結構性的？

Yeah, so look on the pricing environment, actually one of the things, as you're looking at that, make sure you do tease out the ready-to-drink portfolio from the rest of spirits, because that is the most promoted part of the spirits category. And of course there's been just a lot of competition come in there. And so that's still the area that we're seeing the most promotion in.

是的，所以看看定價環境，實際上是其中一件事，當你看到這一點時，請確保你確實從其他烈酒中梳理出即飲產品組合，因為這是最受推廣的部分烈酒類別。當然，那裡有很多競爭。因此，這仍然是我們看到促銷最多的領域。

That being said, actually, look, from a tequila standpoint, there's been a lot of entrants, it certainly is competitive, but we would say that it's not necessarily people down trading as much as super premium is the place where people are entering tequila. So remember the tequila category, latest 12 months, is still growing in this environment, at almost 7%. And by the way, household penetration on tequila is still two thirds of vodka. So it's got a long runway to go.

話雖這麼說，實際上，從龍舌蘭酒的角度來看，已經有很多進入者，它當然具有競爭力，但我們會說，人們不一定會進行降價交易，因為超溢價是人們進入龍舌蘭酒的地方。因此，請記住，最近 12 個月，龍舌蘭酒類別在這種環境下仍在增長，增長率接近 7%。順便說一句，龍舌蘭酒的家庭滲透率仍然是伏特加的三分之二。所以它還有很長的路要走。

Super premium plus -- that's the heart of the category, plus 12%. But ultra-premium plus, where we really play heavily, is plus 3%. And we're gaining share within that. So it's not so much that people are down trading, certainly the $100 plus type bottles that aspirational 1942 on a Tuesday night, that occasion is not -- but that we've really lapped. What we're seeing now is more about consumers coming into tequila from other things and they're entering at that super premium plus price point.

超高級加價－這是該類別的核心，加價 12%。但我們真正重視的超保費加成是 3%。我們正在其中獲得份額。因此，人們並沒有減少交易，當然，週二晚上那些令人嚮往的 1942 年 100 美元以上的瓶子，那個場合也不是——但我們真的已經很喜歡了。我們現在看到更多的是消費者從其他產品轉向龍舌蘭酒，並且他們以超溢價加價位進入。

And to your point on Blanco, Blanco is where there is the most activity. I think what we really like about our portfolio, and the moat we feel like we're building, we actually have a very different tequila business from most. As an example, Don Julio, two-thirds of the brand is Reposado and above. You take the direct competitor to Don Julio, that business is the opposite, only about a quarter is Reposado and above.

就你對布蘭科的觀點而言，布蘭科是最活躍的地方。我認為我們真正喜歡我們的產品組合，以及我們感覺我們正在建造的護城河，我們實際上擁有與大多數公司截然不同的龍舌蘭酒業務。舉個例子，Don Julio，三分之二的品牌是Reposado以上。以 Don Julio 的直接競爭對手為例，這項業務正好相反，只有大約四分之一是 Reposado 及以上。

So we actually feel like -- for Casamigos it's 50-50, so that's a bit more of a Blanco business. We've seen the price competition in that. But we still feel good about our total tequila portfolio and what we're doing and being able to drive the total portfolio and gain share.

所以我們實際上覺得——對卡薩米戈斯來說是 50-50，所以這更像是布蘭科的生意。我們已經看到了其中的價格競爭。但我們仍然對我們的整個龍舌蘭酒產品組合以及我們正在做的事情以及能夠推動整個產品組合併獲得份額感到滿意。

So that's what we're seeing whiskey environment, we're not seeing -- we're not bothered by anything we're seeing. What we see seems to be quite normal activity for this time of year. You do have retailers that are, as they're competing for traffic, sometimes retailers will do some things, but there's nothing that we're seeing in whiskey that we're concerned about. Thank you.

這就是我們所看到的威士忌環境，我們沒有看到——我們不會被我們所看到的任何東西所困擾。我們所看到的情況似乎是每年這個時候的正常活動。確實有一些零售商，因為他們在爭奪流量，有時零售商會做一些事情，但我們在威士忌中沒有看到任何值得我們擔心的事情。謝謝。

James Edwardes Jones, RBC.

詹姆斯·愛德華茲·瓊斯，加拿大皇家銀行。

Thank you. Good morning Debra, morning Lavanya. A couple, please. First I think, Debra, you said the price mix is holding up okay in the US and the problem is volume. And this sounds like classic price elasticity. Diageo's the category leader, have you considered just lowering prices overall and seeing what happens?

謝謝。早安，黛布拉，早安，拉瓦妮亞。請來一對。首先，黛布拉，我認為您說美國的價格組合保持良好，問題在於數量。這聽起來像是典型的價格彈性。帝亞吉歐是該類別的領導者，您是否考慮過整體降低價格並看看會發生什麼？

And secondly, to LAC, further to Simon's question, you were saying we can't assume a bounce back in LAC. But volumes are down 15% odd, last year basically because you weren't selling product to a lot of distributors for quite a long time. Accepting the consumer is subdued, but just arithmetically, shouldn't there be some sort of bounce back because of that?

其次，對於 LAC，對於 Simon 的問題，您說我們不能假設 LAC 會反彈。但去年銷量下降了 15%，這主要是因為您很長一段時間沒有向很多經銷商銷售產品。接受消費者的態度受到抑制，但從算術上看，不應該因此而出現某種反彈嗎？

Yeah, so we'll take the LAC one first. Look, in Mexico in Q4, the industry was down 20%. So yes, we have destocked, but to think even though it's lapping, remember in the first half of the year we were down in that range. It doesn't necessarily just mean it's just going to whip back based on the consumer environment that we're seeing. And so that's why we have flagged that.

是的，所以我們首先選擇 LAC。看，在墨西哥，第四季度該行業下降了 20%。所以，是的，我們已經去庫存了，但要想想，儘管庫存正在下降，但請記住，今年上半年我們的庫存水準是在這個範圍內的。這並不一定意味著它會根據我們所看到的消費者環境而反彈。這就是我們標記這一點的原因。

So we're not saying that there won't be a bounce back, and we certainly see that in certain markets, but the Mexico one is one I flagged because it is our second largest market. But even in other places in South LAC and other places, we are definitely seeing, just with the volatility in the region, it's just didn't want you to mechanically drop that in thinking, that'll be -- it is done. The consumer environment there is quite volatile so you would expect though our performance to more align with that consumer environment versus what we just cycled.

因此，我們並不是說不會反彈，我們當然在某些市場上看到了這種情況，但我標記了墨西哥市場，因為它是我們的第二大市場。但即使在南拉美和加勒比地區的其他地方和其他地方，我們也肯定看到，只是由於該地區的波動，它只是不希望你機械地放棄這個想法，那就是——它已經完成了。那裡的消費者環境非常不穩定，因此您會期望我們的表現與我們剛剛循環的消費者環境更加一致。

And then lowering pricing, look, we've got super premium brands, and remember super premium plus is what is driving the growth. So what you're seeing are consumers, when they have the occasions that they want to consume spirits, they want the brands that they want and they want premium brands. So lowering price isn't a panacea by any means.

然後降低定價，看，我們擁有超高端品牌，請記住超高端品牌才是推動成長的因素。所以你看到的是消費者，當他們有想要消費烈酒的場合時，他們想要他們想要的品牌，他們想要優質的品牌。因此，降低價格無論如何都不是靈丹妙藥。

And look, we're still very affordable luxury. When you put us into perspective of other goods, this is still a great way people do want to celebrate. One of the things that even when sentiment has remained low in place is people do want to go out and celebrate with their friends. They're doing more low tempo occasions. And these are places where we know when we get it right, we're hitting it out of the park. Things like Crown Royal Blackberry, that has brought people into whiskey, and it is because it is a great easy serve and it really captured people's imagination. So it's not just about lowering price.

看，我們仍然是非常實惠的奢侈品。當你把我們放在其他商品的角度來看時，這仍然是人們確實想要慶祝的好方法。即使情緒仍然低迷，人們確實想出去和朋友一起慶祝。他們正在做更多低節奏的場合。在這些地方，我們知道，只要我們做對了，我們就能成功。像皇冠黑莓這樣的東西，讓人們對威士忌產生了興趣，因為它是一種非常容易飲用的飲料，而且它確實激發了人們的想像。所以這不僅僅是降低價格。

But one thing I will say, I do think when I talked about the volume declines, in the category, we're mostly on vodka and rum. Those are the more standard and value priced parts of the portfolio and so they are most likely more sensitive and because of that -- that's what you see going on there and that's why there is more competitive activity there. But you see it's not coming out in net sales total growth. So hopefully that answers your question. Thanks.

但我要說的一件事是，我確實認為當我談到銷量下降時，在該類別中，我們主要是伏特加和朗姆酒。這些是投資組合中更標準、更有價值的部分，因此它們很可能更敏感，正因為如此——這就是你所看到的情況，這就是為什麼那裡有更多的競爭活動。但你會發現它並沒有反映在淨銷售額總成長上。希望這能回答你的問題。謝謝。

Laurence Wyatt, Barclays.

勞倫斯·懷亞特，巴克萊銀行。

Good morning Debra and Lavanya. Thanks very much for the questions. A couple on your key brands. Casamigos didn't have the best year despite Don Julio doing pretty well. You mentioned a couple of reasons earlier in the call such as Casamigos not having quite so much in the higher end.

早上好，黛布拉和拉瓦尼婭。非常感謝您的提問。一些關於您的主要品牌的資訊。儘管唐·胡里奧（Don Julio）表現不錯，但卡薩米戈斯（Casamigos）並沒有度過最好的一年。您在電話會議早些時候提到了幾個原因，例如卡薩米戈斯在高端市場上沒有那麼多。

Do you think there's a structural problem with the brand now that it's got so big that we hear a bit more about consumers getting fatigued with celebrity tequilas or perhaps Casamigos not having that sort of ultra-premium line extensions? Do you think there's possibility that Casamigos sort of got as big as it can ever get and we shouldn't really expect too much growth from there?

您是否認為該品牌存在結構性問題，因為它已經發展得如此之大，以至於我們聽到更多關於消費者對名人龍舌蘭酒感到厭倦的消息，或者卡薩米戈斯可能沒有那種超高階的產品線延伸？您是否認為卡薩米戈斯有可能達到其所能達到的最大規模，而我們不應該期望它有太多增長？

And then similarly, in China, you actually got some very strong success with Shui Jing Fang but of course many of your peers are reporting much weaker results from China and international spirits. Do you think there's any sort of structural change in China that's causing consumers to want to drink more domestically-made spirits as opposed to international? Thank you very much.

同樣，在中國，水井坊實際上取得了非常大的成功，但當然，許多同行報告說中國和國際烈酒的表現要弱得多。您認為中國是否存在某種結構性變化，導致消費者想要喝更多國產烈酒而不是國際烈酒？非常感謝。

Yeah, thanks. So look, on Casamigos, and Casamigos has been on quite a tear for the last several years that we flagged in there. It's been a plus 70% growth CAGR. But it is a newer brand, and one of the things that is we've uncovered on it, so first of all it is structurally we're in more Blanco, there is more competition there. But that being said, we're still growing on-premise and on premise is where brands get grown. And on premise is where people first try brands in this industry. And so we actually feel great about the runway for Casamigos.

是的，謝謝。所以看看卡薩米戈斯，過去幾年我們在那裡標記的卡薩米戈斯一直在不斷發展。複合年增長率高達 70%。但它是一個較新的品牌，這是我們在它身上發現的事情之一，所以首先在結構上我們處於更多的布蘭科，那裡有更多的競爭。但話雖這麼說，我們仍在內部成長，而內部也是品牌成長的地方。前提是人們首先嘗試該行業品牌的地方。所以我們實際上對 Casamigos 的跑道感覺很好。

We still have various states, quite fascinating when you start to have the footprint. And this is what's nice about having as broad of a portfolio that we have in tequila, because we can see opportunities for Casamigos, yet in several states where we're actually under share. And what's interesting about the brand is that brand awareness is two-thirds of Don Julio and other competitors. So it is a big opportunity for us.

我們仍然有不同的狀態，當你開始留下足跡時，這會非常令人著迷。這就是我們擁有像龍舌蘭酒一樣廣泛的產品組合的好處，因為我們可以看到卡薩米戈斯的機會，但在幾個州，我們的份額實際上不足。而品牌有趣的地方在於，品牌知名度是Don Julio 和其他競爭對手的三分之二。所以這對我們來說是一個很大的機會。

For fiscal '25, we've made the announcement, we are fully integrating Casamigos into our Diageo-dedicated sales division. And we're excited about this because we can put more feet on the street against this brand and bring the full power of Diageo, bring in all the advanced analytics, the RGM. And so we see Casamigos having a huge future. It's a really nice, it's a great liquid if you don't know if you're going to like tequila, you try Casamigos and you're like, I like tequila. It's very different and complimentary to Don Julio. So we still feel great there's a lot of people to yet bring into Casamigos.

對於 25 財年，我們已宣布，我們將把 Casamigos 完全整合到我們的帝亞吉歐專用銷售部門。我們對此感到興奮，因為我們可以在街上更多地對抗這個品牌，並充分發揮帝亞吉歐的力量，引入所有先進的分析，RGM。因此我們看到卡薩米戈斯擁有廣闊的未來。這是一種非常好的液體，如果你不知道自己是否喜歡龍舌蘭酒，那麼它是一種很棒的液體，你嘗試一下卡薩米戈斯，你會說，我喜歡龍舌蘭酒。這與唐·胡里奧非常不同，而且是值得稱讚的。所以我們仍然感覺很棒，還有很多人可以進入卡薩米戈斯。

On China, yeah, we did post plus 12% and it was driven by SJF. We also saw pressure on our whiskey business and on our imported scotch. Within that, Singleton, actually our malt business, we have plus 12% on Singleton. So felt really good there. And part of that we saw some trade down, but it's like you're going from Singleton 21 to Singleton 15, so it is still a really nice price mix for us. It's traded down but it's still affordable and it's a great value.

在中國，是的，我們確實成長了 12%，這是由 SJF 推動的。我們也看到我們的威士忌業務和進口蘇格蘭威士忌面臨壓力。其中，Singleton，實際上是我們的麥芽業務，我們在 Singleton 上有 12% 的利潤。所以在那裡感覺真的很好。其中一部分我們看到了一些下降，但就像你從 Singleton 21 升級到 Singleton 15 一樣，所以這對我們來說仍然是一個非常好的價格組合。它已經降價了，但仍然價格實惠，而且物超所值。

So we're not seeing anything structural there other than -- I mean, China really still hasn't fully recovered from COVID. We haven't seen the bounce back there that we saw in other markets around the world. So we're still waiting to see that and to see a little more confidence from the Chinese consumer. Lavanya mentioned earlier, the local whiskey distillery that we're building, we're excited about the opportunity on that, so more to come in that space. But China for us, we're still underdeveloped. Net-net, it is an opportunity for us. Thanks.

所以我們沒有看到任何結構性的東西，除了——我的意思是，中國實際上還沒有完全從新冠疫情中恢復過來。我們還沒有看到世界其他市場出現的反彈。因此，我們仍在等待看到這一點，並看到中國消費者的信心增強。Lavanya 之前提到過，我們正在建造當地的威士忌釀酒廠，我們對這個機會感到很興奮，所以在這個領域還會有更多的機會。但中國對我們來說，仍然不發達。Net-net，對我們來說是一個機會。謝謝。

Sarah Simon, Morgan Stanley.

莎拉‧西蒙，摩根士丹利。

Yes. Hi, I've got two questions, please. First one was on Guinness, obviously you benefited from quite a lot of price in fiscal '24. Can you give us an idea what kind of pricing we should expect for Guinness in 2025? And then the second one was more about the kind of structural. Take your point about Gen Z being more likely to drink spirits and so on, but what do you think in terms of volumes? Because anecdotally it would appear that people are just trying to scale back volumes across the board. So if everybody does that, is the fact that Gen Z might be a bit more spirits inclined still enough to offset that? Thanks.

是的。你好，我有兩個問題請教一下。第一個是吉尼斯黑啤酒，顯然你從 24 財年的相當多的價格中受益。您能否告訴我們 2025 年吉尼斯啤酒的預期定價是多少？第二個更多的是關於結構的類型。就您關於 Z 世代更有可能喝烈酒等的觀點而言，但您對飲酒量有何看法？因為據傳聞，人們似乎只是想全面縮減交易量。那麼，如果每個人都這樣做，那麼 Z 世代可能更傾向於精神的事實是否足以抵消這一點？謝謝。

Yeah, I mean, look, we're not going to flag any forward pricing information. I mean, we're very thoughtful and disciplined about how we do pricing and some of the pricing that we've done has really been around the inflationary environment that we've been in and needing to handle that. And particularly remember Guinness being very focused in on Europe and we've had some particularly high inflation in Europe over the past year. But look, we are seeing inflation start to come down, so that's all I'll say about pricing.

是的，我的意思是，看，我們不會標記任何遠期定價資訊。我的意思是，我們對定價方式非常深思熟慮和遵守紀律，我們所做的一些定價確實是圍繞我們所處的通膨環境而製定的，需要應對這一環境。特別要記住的是，金氏世界紀錄非常關注歐洲，去年歐洲的通膨率特別高。但是看，我們看到通貨膨脹開始下降，所以這就是我要說的關於定價的全部內容。

And then as far as your questions around structural and volumes based, look, what we've always said is people want to drink better not more. And so there's part of this that plays into the premiumization journey I think as well. I flagged that spending is actually in line for Gen Zs, in line with prior generations, but of course you're getting less for those dollars. So I don't think it's a generational issue, I think it's that same economic pressure that everyone's feeling.

至於你關於結構和體積的問題，我們一直說的是人們想要喝得更好而不是更多。因此，我認為這也影響了高端化進程。我指出，Z 世代的支出實際上與前幾代人的支出一致，但當然，你花這些錢得到的錢會更少。所以我不認為這是一個世代問題，我認為這是每個人都感受到的同樣的經濟壓力。

In the US, the student loan repayments having to resume and some of this puts pressure and wallets across generations. So there is no -- I would attribute some of that more to what's happening in just the economy and how people are feeling. And in particular, young people are feeling pressure on their wallets. So I don't think there's really anything else I would point to at this point. You can certainly explain what we're seeing based on the economy and the more cyclical things versus structural. Thanks.

在美國，學生貸款償還必須恢復，這給幾代人帶來了壓力和錢包。所以沒有——我會把其中一些更多地歸因於經濟中發生的事情以及人們的感受。尤其是年輕人，他們的錢包感到壓力。所以我認為目前我沒有什麼要指出的。你當然可以根據經濟以及週期性因素與結構性因素來解釋我們所看到的情況。謝謝。

Jeremy Fialko, HSBC.

傑里米·菲亞爾科，匯豐銀行。

Hello, thanks for taking the questions that from me. First one is just following up on James's question, can you tell us what the exit rate was or H2 sell-out in LAC, where you just take it from an overall regional perspective?

您好，感謝您回答我的問題。第一個問題只是跟進 James 的問題，您能告訴我們 LAC 的退出率或 H2 銷售情況是多少嗎？

And then the second question is on innovation. And actually you did well with the Crown Royal Blackberry, but perhaps you could talk about how some of the other innovations have landed? And I guess particularly North America, how you see the innovation pipeline shaping up for fiscal '25 when you scale it and size it relative to what there was in fiscal '24. Thanks.

第二個問題是關於創新。事實上，您在皇冠黑莓方面做得很好，但也許您可以談談其他一些創新是如何落地的？我想特別是在北美，當你相對於 24 財年的規模進行擴展和調整時，你會如何看待 25 財年的創新管道。謝謝。

Yeah, so look on the exit rates for Latin America, I mean, look, this is a mistake we're not going to make again. Part of it is we are looking at the go forward, we are looking at what we're seeing and projecting going forward versus just taking a backward look. That is one of the things that has gotten us into trouble.

是的，所以看看拉丁美洲的退出率，我的意思是，看，這是我們不會再犯的錯誤。部分原因是我們著眼於未來，我們著眼於我們所看到的並預測未來，而不是只回顧過去。這是給我們帶來麻煩的事情之一。

One of the things that we see is when the market drops off, it drops off quite fast. And remember some of these markets, like Mexico, are quite tied into also the interest rate environment and things like the US. So there's a lot of factors that play in as we look forward there. What we have flagged is the exit rate from Mexico that Q4, the industry was down 20%, so that you can expect.

我們看到的一件事是，當市場下跌時，它會下跌得非常快。請記住，其中一些市場（例如墨西哥）也與利率環境和美國等因素密切相關。因此，在我們的展望中，有很多因素在起作用。我們標記的是第四季度墨西哥的退出率，該行業下降了 20%，所以你可以預期。

Look, Brazil's a different case, Brazil actually had a flat category, and we were gaining share on that. And that's our largest market, so there's some positive news there. But then when you go into South LAC, we are seeing some volatility there. So it really is quite different, I wouldn't be helping you to give you some kind of regional average.

看，巴西的情況不同，巴西實際上有一個平坦的類別，我們正在獲得份額。這是我們最大的市場，所以那裡有一些積極的消息。但當你進入南拉美和加勒比地區時，我們發現那裡存在一些波動。所以這確實是非常不同的，我不會幫助你給你某種地區平均值。

On innovation. Look, on innovation, we actually had a very strong year and that's really one of the things that has helped us I think really pick up share momentum in North America. The Cocktail Collection, which we talked to you about at Capital Markets Day and then rolled out right around the holidays this year, we've continued to expand distribution there.

關於創新。看，在創新方面，我們實際上度過了非常強勁的一年，這確實是幫助我們的事情之一，我認為真正增強了北美的份額動力。我們在資本市場日與您討論了雞尾酒系列，然後在今年假期前後推出，我們繼續擴大在那裡的分銷。

By the way, there's still more distribution opportunities on that, it's growing three times faster than the industry. Our convenience portfolio, all in, so that would be the cans plus what we've been doing on these more ready to serve or the multi-serve shake pour and serve type of products, plus 15%. So that certainly helped us.

順便說一句，這方面還有更多的分銷機會，它的成長速度是該行業的三倍。我們的便利產品組合，全部包括在內，所以這將是罐頭加上我們一直在做的這些更方便的服務或多服務搖倒和服務類型的產品，加上 15%。這當然對我們有幫助。

We also had really nice innovation on Bulleit with the American single malt, the Rye 12-year old launch, so that showed up in Bulleit as well. Buchanan's has continued to do well off of Pineapple, and Pineapple's really in its second year. I mean, one of the things we're trying to do with our innovation is we're really trying to have innovation that is not so short cycle, really bringing in new buyers. It's one of the reasons we've touted on the Crown Blackberry.

我們在 Bulleit 上也有非常好的創新，推出了美國單一麥芽威士忌、12 年黑麥威士忌，所以這也出現在了 Bulleit 上。布坎南的菠蘿繼續表現出色，而菠蘿確實已經進入第二年了。我的意思是，我們正在嘗試透過創新做的事情之一是，我們確實在嘗試進行週期不那麼短的創新，真正引入新的買家。這是我們大力宣傳皇冠黑莓的原因之一。

A lot of new buyers into the franchise also new to whiskey. So part of this is consumer insights and getting in and making sure you have incremental occasions, it's helping us pair with food, it's helping us for moderation, for convenience, and some of these underlying consumer trends. Going against that, delivering the right product. And we are seeing great results for that.

許多新加入該特許經營權的買家對威士忌也是陌生的。因此，其中一部分是對消費者的洞察，並確保你有更多的機會，它幫助我們搭配食物，它幫助我們節制、方便，以及一些潛在的消費趨勢。與此相反，提供正確的產品。我們正在看到這方面的巨大成果。

So we've got a great pipeline coming up as well. We're actually extending on cocktail collection. We're going to have a Crown Royal variant coming out and more to come on that as we move through the year. We'll tell you more about our innovation pipeline as we announce that. Thanks.

所以我們也有一個很棒的管道即將推出。我們實際上正在擴展雞尾酒系列。隨著這一年的推移，我們將推出一款皇冠皇家版本，並且還會推出更多版本。當我們宣布這一消息時，我們將告訴您有關我們創新管道的更多資訊。謝謝。

Fintan Ryan, Goodbody.

芬坦·瑞安，古德博迪。

Good morning, Debra and Lavanya. Two questions for me please. Firstly, I guess big picture, just in terms of your marketing spend, appreciate that you pulled back some of the spending in the second half of the year, but for the year as a whole, marketing spend was still about a 15 basis point headwind to group margins. Given that you're now expecting the industry to be softer for longer, how should we think about this marketing spend going forward? Notwithstanding the new Guinness Premier League sponsorship, but is there a situation where marketing could be a tailwind to margins in the short term while you sort of retrench a bit if the industry is going to be that bit softer?

早上好，黛布拉和拉瓦尼婭。請問我兩個問題。首先，我想從總體上看，就你們的行銷支出而言，你們在下半年撤回了部分支出，但就全年而言，行銷支出仍然存在大約 15 個基點的逆風對邊距進行分組。鑑於您現在預計該行業將在更長時間內保持疲軟，我們應該如何考慮未來的行銷支出？儘管有新的吉尼斯超級聯賽贊助，但是否存在這樣的情況：行銷可能在短期內成為利潤率的順風車，而如果行業變得更加疲軟，您就會稍微緊縮開支？

And then secondly, just in terms of the route to market changes within France and the Hennessy relationship there, can you give us a sense of what that will do in terms of your operations within Western Europe as a whole? And is there potential for you to change your structure with Moet-Hennessy in China?

其次，就法國境內的市場路線變化以及與軒尼詩的關係而言，您能否讓我們了解這將對您在整個西歐的業務產生什麼影響？您是否有可能改變酩悅軒尼詩在中國的結構？

So yeah, to go into marketing spend first, I mean, we've always said we don't manage to a specific rate. So we really do look at the returns of what we're doing. And then when we're not getting as much of a return from it, we do pull back money. When we get a great return from it, we're doubling down.

所以，是的，首先要討論行銷支出，我的意思是，我們一直說我們無法達到特定的比率。所以我們確實會關注我們正在做的事情的回報。然後，當我們沒有從中獲得盡可能多的回報時，我們就會撤回資金。當我們從中獲得豐厚回報時，我們就會加倍努力。

And then there's a few, what I would call quite strategic A&P investments that we view with a little bit longer time horizon. But even there, when things aren't working, we are constantly optimizing on that. And we've got great tools. We've talked in the past about tools like Catalyst and Sensor. We're also adding in virtual create hubs where we can -- we actually can make and produce content much cheaper. And we're finding some of that productivity that I flagged, the $700 million actually came from marketing. So we're able to spend the same amount of dollars and go further.

然後還有一些我稱之為相當策略性的 A&P 投資，我們認為這些投資的時間範圍要長一些。但即使在那裡，當事情出現問題時，我們也會不斷優化。我們有很棒的工具。我們過去曾討論過 Catalyst 和 Sensor 等工具。我們也盡可能地添加虛擬創建中心——我們實際上可以更便宜地製作和生產內容。我們發現了我所標記的一些生產力，這 7 億美元實際上來自行銷。因此，我們能夠花同樣的錢，走得更遠。

So it does speak -- to your point, we are finding ways to make our dollar stretch. We are looking at the current environment and adjusting accordingly. And that's why you saw us pull back on marketing in certain places, and then spend in others. But we're not managing that to a rate, we are looking at where the opportunities are. But we are actively managing that and we're well aware of the environment.

所以這確實說明了——就你的觀點而言，我們正在尋找方法來讓我們的資金更加充足。我們正在研究當前的環境並進行相應的調整。這就是為什麼你看到我們在某些​​地方縮減行銷，然後在其他地方花錢。但我們並沒有按照一定的速度進行管理，我們正在尋找機會在哪裡。但我們正在積極管理這一點，我們非常了解環境。

On the route to market for France and MH, look, we saw a great opportunity. We have relatively low market share in France and yet it's a great whiskey market. So we saw an opportunity and announced earlier in the year that we were going to be setting up our own demand marketing unit within a commercial organization within France.

在法國和MH的市場之路上，你看，我們看到了一個很好的機會。我們在法國的市佔率相對較低，但它是一個很大的威士忌市場。因此，我們看到了一個機會，並在今年稍早宣布，我們將在法國的一個商業組織內建立自己的需求行銷部門。

And then of course we recently made the announcement, we are going ahead and bringing all of our brands in. And we're quite excited about it and we see a great opportunity. It does not impact any of our other JVs that we have with Moet-Hennessy around the world, nor does it impact our overall shareholding. We just make these decisions on a market by market basis and we were seeing an opportunity in France that we thought we could capitalize with our own resources.

當然，我們最近宣布了這一消息，我們將繼續引入我們所有的品牌。我們對此感到非常興奮，我們看到了一個很好的機會。它不會影響我們與酩悅軒尼詩在世界各地的任何其他合資企業，也不會影響我們的整體持股。我們只是根據市場做出這些決定，我們在法國看到了一個機會，我們認為我們可以利用自己的資源來利用它。

So hopefully that answers your question. And I do think we are out of time. So I want to thank everyone for joining us today and for your interest in Diageo. Thank you.

希望這能回答你的問題。我確實認為我們已經沒有時間了。因此，我要感謝大家今天加入我們並感謝你們對帝亞吉歐的興趣。謝謝。

Thank you for joining today's call. You may now disconnect your lines.

感謝您參加今天的電話會議。現在您可以斷開線路。