強鹿 (DE) 2020 Q4 法說會逐字稿

Good morning, and welcome to the Deere & Company fourth quarter earnings conference call.

早上好，歡迎參加迪爾公司第四季財報電話會議。

(Operator Instructions)

（操作員說明）

I would now like to turn the call over to Josh Jepsen, Director of Investor Relations.

我現在想將電話轉給投資者關係總監 Josh Jepsen。

Thank you.

謝謝。

You may begin.

你可以開始了。

Thanks, Robyn.

謝謝，羅賓。

Hello.

你好。

Also on the call today are Ryan Campbell, our CFO; Jahmy Hindman, our Chief Technology Officer; and Brent Norwood, Manager, Investor Communications.

今天參加電話會議的還有我們的財務長 Ryan Campbell； Jahmy Hindman，我們的技術長；布倫特諾伍德（Brent Norwood），投資人溝通經理。

Today, we'll take a closer look at Deere's fourth quarter earnings then spend some time talking about our markets and our current outlook for fiscal 2021.

今天，我們將仔細研究迪爾第四季的收益，然後花一些時間討論我們的市場和我們目前對 2021 財年的展望。

After that, we'll respond to your questions.

之後，我們將回答您的問題。

Please note that slides are available to complement the call this morning.

請注意，我們提供了幻燈片來補充今天早上的電話會議。

They can be accessed on our website at johndeere.com/earnings.

您可以在我們的網站 johndeere.com/earnings 上存取它們。

First, a reminder.

首先，提醒一下。

This call is being broadcast live on the Internet and recorded for future transmission and use by Deere & Company.

此次通話正在網路上進行現場直播，並進行錄音，以供迪爾公司將來傳輸和使用。

Any other use, recording or transmission of any portion of this copyrighted broadcast without the express written consent of Deere is strictly prohibited.

未經迪爾明確書面同意，嚴禁對本受版權保護的廣播的任何部分進行任何其他使用、錄製或傳輸。

Participants in the call, including the Q&A session, agree that their likeness and remarks in all media may be stored and used as part of the earnings call.

電話會議（包括問答環節）的參與者同意，他們在所有媒體上的肖像和言論可以被儲存並用作財報電話會議的一部分。

This call includes forward-looking comments concerning the company's plans and projections for the future that are subject to important risks and uncertainties.

本次電話會議包括有關公司未來計劃和預測的前瞻性評論，這些評論受到重大風險和不確定性的影響。

Additional information concerning factors that could cause actual results to differ materially is contained in the company's most recent Form8-K and periodic reports filed with the Securities and Exchange Commission.

有關可能導致實際結果出現重大差異的因素的更多資​​訊包含在公司向美國證券交易委員會提交的最新 Form8-K 和定期報告中。

This call may also include financial measures that are not in conformance with accounting principles generally accepted in the United States of America, or GAAP.

此電話會議也可能包括不符合美國普遍接受的會計原則（GAAP）的財務措施。

Additional information concerning these measures, including reconciliations to comparable GAAP measures, is included in the release and posted on our website at johndeere.com/earnings under Quarterly Earnings & Events.

有關這些措施的更多信息，包括與可比 GAAP 措施的調節，已包含在新聞稿中，並發佈在我們網站 johndeere.com/earnings 的「季度收益和活動」下。

I'll now turn the call over to Brent Norwood.

我現在將把電話轉給布倫特·諾伍德。

John Deere demonstrated strong execution in the fourth quarter, resulting in a 12% margin for the equipment operations and net income exceeding our full year forecast.

約翰迪爾在第四季度表現出強勁的執行力，設備營運利潤率為 12%，淨利潤超過我們全年預測。

Despite significant uncertainty early in the year for large ag markets, fundamentals improved throughout the fourth quarter, driving growth prospects for 2021.

儘管大型農業市場在今年年初存在很大的不確定性，但整個第四季度的基本面有所改善，推動了 2021 年的成長前景。

Meanwhile, markets for our Construction & Forestry division also improved in the fourth quarter, leading to a solid finish to the year and modest levels of recovery projected for fiscal year '21.

同時，我們的建築和林業部門的市場在第四季度也有所改善，為今年帶來了堅實的收官，並預計 21 財年將出現適度復甦。

Now let's take a closer look at our year-end results for 2020, beginning on Slide 3. For the full year, net sales and revenue were down 9% to $35.54 billion, while net sales for equipment operations were down 10% to $31.272 billion.

現在讓我們仔細看看 2020 年年終業績，從幻燈片 3 開始。

Net income attributable to Deere & Company was $2.751 billion or $8.69 per diluted share.

迪爾公司應佔淨利為 27.51 億美元，即稀釋後每股收益 8.69 美元。

Net income for the year was negatively affected by impairment charges, losses on business disposals and employee separation costs of $458 million after tax.

本年度淨利潤受到減損費用、業務處置損失和稅後 4.58 億美元員工離職費用的負面影響。

For the same period in 2019, the similar charges were $82 million.

2019 年同期，類似費用為 8,200 萬美元。

Slide 4 shows the results for the fourth quarter.

投影片 4 顯示了第四季的結果。

Net sales and revenue were down 2% to $9.731 billion, while net sales for the equipment operation were down 1% to $8.659 billion.

淨銷售額和收入下降 2%，至 97.31 億美元，而設備業務的淨銷售額下降 1%，至 86.59 億美元。

Net income attributable to Deere & Company for the quarter was $757 million or $2.39 per diluted share.

本季迪爾公司應佔淨利為 7.57 億美元，或攤薄後每股收益 2.39 美元。

Fourth quarter net income was negatively affected by impairment charges and employee separation costs of $211 million after tax compared to $74 million for the same period in 2019.

第四季淨利受到稅後減損費用和員工離職成本 2.11 億美元的負面影響，而 2019 年同期淨利為 7,400 萬美元。

Turning to a review of our individual businesses, starting with Agriculture & Turf on Slide 5. Net sales were up 8% compared to the fourth quarter last year, primarily due to price realization and higher shipment volumes, partially offset by the unfavorable effects of currency translation.

轉向對我們各個業務的回顧，從幻燈片5 上的農業和草坪開始。的不利影響所抵銷翻譯。

Price realization in the quarter was positive by 5 points, while currency translation was negative by 1 point.

本季的價格實現為正值 5 個點，而貨幣換算為負值 1 點。

Operating profit was $860 million, resulting in a 13.9% operating margin for the division.

營業利益為 8.6 億美元，該部門的營業利潤率為 13.9%。

The year-over-year increase was driven by price realization and lower R&D expenses and reduced G&A, improved shipment volumes and mix and lower warranty expenses.

年比成長的推動因素包括價格實現、研發費用降低、一般管理費用減少、出貨量和產品組合改善以及保固費用降低。

The items were partially offset by impairments in employee separation expenses, which totaled $164 million in the quarter.

這些項目被員工離職費用減損部分抵消，本季總計 1.64 億美元。

Please note that the $153 million shown on the waterfall is net of $11 million in separation costs from 2019.

請注意，瀑布圖上顯示的 1.53 億美元扣除了 2019 年的 1,100 萬美元分離成本。

For the full year, the Ag & Turf division incurred $286 million in nonrecurring charges, including employee separation expenses, impairments and a loss on the sale.

全年，Ag & Turf 部門產生了 2.86 億美元的非經常性費用，包括員工離職費用、減損和銷售損失。

Before reviewing our industry outlook, we'll first provide commentary on the regional dynamics impacting ag markets and Deere operations around the globe, starting on Slide 6. In the U.S., farmer sentiment showed improvement over the quarter as the combination of government support and improved commodity prices boosted farm income prospects for the year.

在回顧我們的行業前景之前，我們將首先對影響全球農業市場和迪爾業務的區域動態進行評論，從幻燈片 6 開始。大宗商品價格提振了今年的農業收入前景。

Meanwhile, concerns over market access temporarily subsided with exports to China rebounding compared to last year.

同時，對市場准入的擔憂暫時消退，對中國的出口較去年有所反彈。

Stocks-to-use and carryout estimates for corn and soybeans are now forecast at multiyear lows due to diminished production on account of some regionally dry weather and the derecho storm in August as well as increased export activity.

由於部分地區乾旱天氣和 8 月的德雷喬風暴導致產量減少以及出口活動增加，預計玉米和大豆的庫存量和結轉量預計將處於多年低點。

The improvement in fundamentals and farmer sentiment is reflected in the progress of our early order programs.

基本面和農民情緒的改善反映在我們早期訂單計畫的進展。

At this time, we've concluded all 3 phases of our planter and sprayer programs, while our Combine program recently finished Phase 2. Sales for planters are up 10% compared to last year with sprayers and combines up even further.

目前，我們已經完成了播種機和噴霧機計畫的所有3 個階段，而我們的聯合收割機計畫最近也完成了第2 階段。合併後的增幅甚至更大。

Meanwhile, our large ag tractor order book has strengthened over the last quarter with orders up nicely compared to the previous year.

同時，我們的大型農用拖拉機訂單量在上個季度有所增加，訂單量與上一年相比大幅增加。

Lastly, retail activity picked up in the fourth quarter, leaving new and used inventory positions at multiyear lows.

最後，零售活動在第四季度有所回升，使新庫存和二手庫存部位處於多年來的低點。

Shifting to South America.

轉移到南美洲。

Record soybean production, higher commodity prices and favorable exchange rates continue to drive positive producer margins in Brazil this year.

創紀錄的大豆產量、較高的大宗商品價格和有利的匯率繼續推動今年巴西生產商利潤率上升。

As a result, activity accelerated in the fourth quarter and far exceeded our forecast, making a very strong finish to 2020.

因此，第四季的經濟活動加速，遠遠超出了我們的預期，為 2020 年畫上了圓滿的句號。

For fiscal year 2021, the order book is quite strong, reflecting the positive fundamentals with order coverage now extending well into the first half of the year.

2021 財年的訂單量相當強勁，反映出正面的基本面，訂單覆蓋範圍目前已延伸至今年上半年。

Similar to North America, the strong finish to the year in Brazil depleted equipment inventory levels below historic averages, keeping momentum for new equipment demand healthy as we begin the year.

與北美類似，巴西今年的強勁收官使設備庫存水準低於歷史平均水平，從而在年初保持新設備需求的強勁勢頭。

In Europe, healthy prices for small grains, such as wheat, have boosted sentiment for arable farmers and spurred demand in the back half of 2020.

在歐洲，小麥等小穀物價格健康，提振了耕種農民的​​信心，並刺激了 2020 年下半年的需求。

Overall, arable margins should see modest gains this year, though results vary throughout some regions experiencing lower production due to dry conditions.

總體而言，今年的耕地利潤應該會小幅增長，儘管由於乾旱而導致產量下降的一些地區的結果有所不同。

Meanwhile, dairy and livestock producers may experience some pressure in fiscal year '21 from soft dairy margins and growing concerns with respect to African swine fever.

同時，乳製品和牲畜生產商可能會在 21 財年面臨一些壓力，因為乳製品利潤疲軟以及對非洲豬瘟的擔憂日益加劇。

Importantly, Deere's operations in Europe have benefited from a more focused strategy and demonstrated an uptick in large ag market share as well as much improved profitability for the region.

重要的是，迪爾在歐洲的業務受益於更集中的策略，並顯示出大型農業市場份額的上升以及該地區盈利能力的大幅提高。

Looking ahead, the tractor order book is up relative to last year, providing solid visibility into 2021.

展望未來，拖拉機訂單量較去年有所增加，為 2021 年提供了堅實的前景。

Turning to Asia Pacific.

轉向亞太地區。

Key markets like India and Australia rebounded nicely from the early pandemic lockdowns and are expected to resume growth in fiscal year '21.

印度和澳洲等主要市場從早期的大流行封鎖中恢復良好，預計將在 21 財年恢復成長。

Meanwhile, operations in other markets are benefiting from some of the disciplined portfolio actions we've taken to date.

同時，其他市場的業務也受益於我們迄今為止採取的一些嚴格的投資組合行動。

With that context, let's turn to our 2021 ag and turf industry outlook on Slide 7. The U.S. -- in the U.S. and Canada, we expect ag industry sales to be up between 5% to 10% for the year.

在此背景下，讓我們轉向幻燈片 7 上的 2021 年農業和草坪行業展望。

The increase year-over-year reflects improved fundamentals in the ag sector as well as the historically low inventory levels at the start of the year.

同比成長反映了農業產業基本面的改善以及年初庫存水準的歷史低點。

Moving on to Europe.

繼續前往歐洲。

The industry outlook is forecast to be flat to up 5% with strength in arable offsetting some weakness in dairy and livestock.

預計產業前景將持平至成長 5%，耕地的強勁抵消了乳製品和畜牧業的部分疲軟。

In South America, we expect an industry sales increase of about 5% with solid visibility into the first half of the year, especially in Brazil.

在南美洲，我們預期產業銷售額將成長約 5%，上半年前景光明，尤其是在巴西。

Industry sales in Asia are forecast to be down slightly, though key markets for Deere are performing slightly better.

儘管迪爾的主要市場表現略有好轉，但亞洲的行業銷售預計將略有下降。

Lastly, sales of turf and utility equipment are expected to be flat to up 5% following a solid year in 2020.

最後，繼 2020 年表現強勁之後，草坪和公用設備的銷售額預計將持平，僅成長 5%。

Moving on to our ag and turf forecast on Slide 8. Fiscal year 2021 sales of worldwide ag and turf equipment are forecast to be up between 10% and 15%.

接下來是幻燈片 8 上的農業和草坪預測。

The incremental increase relative to the industry guidance reflects plans to recover inventory levels in small ag, which ended the year at historic lows for inventory-to-sales ratios.

相對於行業指引的增量成長反映了小型企業恢復庫存水準的計劃，該企業年底的庫存與銷售比率處於歷史低點。

The forecast also includes expectations of 3 points of positive price realization as well as a currency tailwind of about 1 point.

該預測還包括 3 個點的正價格實現以及約 1 個點的貨幣順風的預期。

For the division's operating margin, our full year forecast is ranged between 15.5% and 16.5%.

對於該部門的營業利潤率，我們全年預測在 15.5% 至 16.5% 之間。

Now let's focus on Construction & Forestry on Slide 9. For the quarter, net sales of $2.461 billion were down 16%, primarily due to lower shipment volumes, partially offset by price realization.

現在讓我們專注於幻燈片 9 上的建築和林業。

Operating profit moved lower year-over-year to $196 million due to lower sales volumes and mix, impairments and employee separation expenses.

由於銷售和產品組合下降、減損和員工離職費用，營業利潤年減至 1.96 億美元。

The decrease in profit was partially offset by price realization and lower R&D expenses and reduced SG&A, lower warranty expenses and improved production costs.

利潤的下降部分被價格實現、研發費用降低、SG&A 減少、保固費用降低和生產成本提高所抵消。

The total cost for impairments and employee separation charges were $76 million for the quarter, while the full year costs were $184 million.

該季度的減損和員工離職費用總成本為 7,600 萬美元，而全年成本為 1.84 億美元。

Let's turn to our 2021 construction and forestry industry outlook on Slide 10.

讓我們轉向幻燈片 10 上的 2021 年建築和林業行業展望。

Construction equipment industry sales in the U.S. and Canada are now forecast to be down about 5% with continued uncertainty expected in the oil and gas and nonresidential sectors.

由於石油、天然氣和非住宅行業的持續不確定性，美國和加拿大的建築設備行業銷售額目前預計將下降約 5%。

Meanwhile, compact construction equipment industry sales are expected to increase about 5% as the housing market fundamentals continue to be positive through 2021.

同時，隨著 2021 年房地產市場基本面持續向好，緊湊型建築設備產業銷售額預計將成長 5% 左右。

Moving on to global forestry, we now expect the industry to be flat to up 5% as a recovery in lumber demand, particularly in North America, should lead to increased production throughout the year.

轉向全球林業，我們現在預計該行業將持平至成長 5%，因為木材需求的復甦，尤其是北美的復甦，應會導致全年產量增加。

Moving to the C&F division outlook on Slide 11.

轉到幻燈片 11 上的 C&F 部門前景。

Deere's Construction & Forestry 2021 net sales are forecast to be up between 5% to 10% compared to last year.

迪爾 2021 年建築和林業淨銷售額預計將比去年增長 5% 至 10%。

Our net sales guidance for the year includes expectations of about 1 point of positive price realization and a currency tailwind of about 1 point.

我們今年的淨銷售指導包括約 1 個百分點的正價格實現和約 1 個百分點的貨幣順風的預期。

We expect the division's operating margin to be ranged between 9% to 10% for the year, benefiting from price, volume and non-reoccurring expenses from 2020.

我們預計該部門今年的營業利潤率將在 9% 至 10% 之間，受益於 2020 年的價格、銷售和非經常性費用。

Let's move now to our Financial Services operations on Slide 12.

現在讓我們轉到投影片 12 上的金融服務業務。

Worldwide Financial Services net income attributable to Deere & Company in the fourth quarter was $186 million, benefiting from lower impairments and reduced losses on operating lease residual values and favorable financing spreads, partially offset by a higher provision for credit losses and employee separation expenses.

第四季迪爾公司應佔全球金融服務淨利為1.86 億美元，受益於減損損失減少、營業租賃殘值損失減少以及有利的融資利差，但部分被信貸損失準備金和員工離職費用增加所抵消。

For fiscal year 2021, the net income forecast is $630 million, which contemplates a tax rate between 24% to 26%.

2021財年，淨利預測為6.3億美元，預計稅率為24%至26%。

The provision for credit loss forecast -- the provision for credit losses forecast for 2021 is 27 basis points.

信用損失預測撥備－2021年信用損失預測撥備為27個基點。

Before moving on to the 2021 company outlook, I'd like to welcome our Chief Technology Officer, Jahmy Hindman, to the call.

在展望 2021 年公司前景之前，我謹歡迎我們的技術長 Jahmy Hindman 參加電話會議。

Jahmy recently assumed the CTO position and played a pivotal role in shaping our Smart Industrial strategy and vision for Deere's technology stack.

Jahmy 最近擔任首席技術官，在製定我們的智慧工業策略和迪爾技術堆疊願景方面發揮了關鍵作用。

Jahmy?

傑米？

Thanks, Brent.

謝謝，布倫特。

As noted, I recently assumed the newly created Chief Technology Officer position, and I spent the last few months finalizing our organizational design and refining our technology strategy to best enable the Smart Industrial operating model.

如前所述，我最近擔任了新設立的技術長職位，在過去的幾個月裡，我完成了我們的組織設計並完善了我們的技術策略，以最好地實現智慧工業營運模式。

I've been with Deere for over 20 years in a variety of engineering roles in both the Ag & Turf and Construction & Forestry divisions and most recently led engineering for the global tractor product family.

我在迪爾工作了 20 多年，在農業和草坪以及建築和林業部門擔任過各種工程職務，最近負責全球拖拉機產品系列的工程設計。

Most simply put, the chief technology office is responsible for delivering Deere's technology stack.

最簡單地說，首席技術辦公室負責交付迪爾的技術堆疊。

Think of our tech stack as the full set of components required to deliver technology solutions to our customers.

將我們的技術堆疊視為向客戶提供技術解決方案所需的全套組件。

For nearly 25 years, Deere has invested in core technologies and capabilities that can be leveraged across the enterprise.

近 25 年來，迪爾一直投資於可在整個企業中利用的核心技術和能力。

These core competencies are primarily focused around machine guidance, digital connectivity, machine intelligence, and more recently, autonomy.

這些核心能力主要集中在機器引導、數位連接、機器智慧以及最近的自主性方面。

Historically, Deere operated within multiple disparate business units that were spread out throughout the enterprise to pursue innovations in these core technologies.

從歷史上看，迪爾在多個不同的業務部門中運營，這些業務部門分佈在整個企業中，以追求這些核心技術的創新。

As part of our redesign, we have consolidated these units under the CTO organization.

作為重新設計的一部分，我們將這些部門合併到 CTO 組織之下。

This drives a higher degree of focus and unlock significant efficiencies for our R&D investments.

這推動了我們更高程度的關注並顯著提高了我們研發投資的效率。

Our approach to precision technology, as shown on Slide 13, is distinct within the industry as we've maintained end-to-end development responsibility for our tech stack, developing unique solutions from the embedded hardware and software in our equipment to the digital platforms our customers utilize.

正如幻燈片 13 所示，我們的精密技術方法在行業中是獨一無二的，因為我們對技術堆疊保持端到端的開發責任，開發從設備中的嵌入式硬體和軟體到數位平台的獨特解決方案我們的客戶使用。

While we pursued a vertically integrated path for our core capabilities, we have chosen to partner with others for noncore technologies, things like graphical processing units and cameras.

雖然我們追求核心能力的垂直整合路徑，但我們選擇與其他公司合作開發非核心技術，例如圖形處理單元和相機。

Additionally, we've opened up our digital platform to include over 185 API partners.

此外，我們也開放了數位平台，納入超過 185 個 API 合作夥伴。

Over time, our philosophy has remained consistent, as depicted on Slide 14.

隨著時間的推移，我們的理念始終保持一致，如幻燈片 14 所示。

We seek to develop or acquire core technologies that add value and are unique to the jobs that our customers do while outsourcing noncore technologies when partners can bring scale or offer faster speed to market.

我們尋求開發或取得可為客戶所從事的工作增加價值且獨特的核心技術，同時在合作夥伴能夠擴大規模或提供更快的上市速度時外包非核心技術。

In any case, we maintain the development responsibility for the final solution to ensure seamless integration into our equipment.

無論如何，我們仍承擔最終解決方案的開發責任，以確保無縫整合到我們的設備中。

This approach has served us well, and it traces its genesis back to our acquisition of NavCom in 1999.

這種方法對我們很有幫助，它的起源可以追溯到我們 1999 年收購 NavCom。

At that time, we decided to own certain technology competencies, starting with satellite guidance.

當時，我們決定擁有一定的技術能力，從衛星導引開始。

The acquisition delivered a foundational element to our tech stack, and it enabled us to lead the industry in innovation from the early days of AutoTrac to turn automation and now AutoPath, which is our latest solution for pathfinding.

此次收購為我們的技術堆疊提供了基礎元素，使我們能夠引領業界創新，從早期的 AutoTrac 到自動化，再到現在的 AutoPath，這是我們最新的尋路解決方案。

Furthermore, by owning this technology, we've been able to scale guidance innovation throughout our entire large ag fleet.

此外，透過擁有這項技術，我們已經能夠在整個大型農業機隊中擴展導引創新。

We followed similar blueprints with other core technologies from our acquisition of Phoenix International in 1999 to the organic development of the John Deere Operations Center beginning in 2012.

從 1999 年收購 Phoenix International 到 2012 年約翰迪爾營運中心的有機發展，我們在其他核心技術上都遵循了類似的藍圖。

Our acquisition of Blue River Technology in 2017 reflects our view that machine learning and computer vision are essential competencies required for the next generation of machine intelligence and automation.

我們在 2017 年收購 Blue River Technology 反映了我們的觀點：機器學習和電腦視覺是下一代機器智慧和自動化所需的基本能力。

Similar to other core technologies, we see wide applicability of Blue River's competencies across our large ag product portfolio and also intend to leverage the vision systems for obstacle detection in our Construction & Forestry division.

與其他核心技術類似，我們看到 Blue River 的能力在我們的大型農業產品組合中具有廣泛的適用性，並且還打算在我們的建築和林業部門利用視覺系統進行障礙物檢測。

Essentially, this technology can be applied to optimize machine use and job outcomes, anywhere a human operator controls or adjust machine settings.

從本質上講，該技術可以應用於最佳化機器使用和工作結果，無論操作員在哪裡控製或調整機器設定。

Ultimately, we believe that a complete tech stack delivers the most value for our customers when it's paired with the underlying equipment and a dealer network that can support it.

最終，我們相信，當完整的技術堆疊與底層設備和支援它的經銷商網路結合時，它可以為我們的客戶帶來最大的價值。

This seamless integration is key to achieving the highest levels of productivity and sustainability and is a requirement for innovations like plant-level management and autonomy.

這種無縫整合是實現最高水準的生產力和永續性的關鍵，也是工廠級管理和自主性等創新的要求。

Furthermore, our comprehensive system delivers the ability for equipment to become smarter throughout the course of a production system.

此外，我們的綜合系統使設備能夠在整個生產系統過程中變得更加智慧。

While many industry players offer point solutions for a given technology or a specific production step, we offer customers a system advantage where the combined equipment and the information from the technology stack passes insights to each proceeding and subsequent step in the production system.

雖然許多行業參與者為給定技術或特定生產步驟提供單點解決方案，但我們為客戶提供了系統優勢，其中組合設備和來自技術堆疊的信息將洞察傳遞給生產系統中的每個過程和後續步驟。

For example, our sprayers leverage the guidance lines from planting for more efficiency and accuracy, resulting in less crop damage, while utility operations are informed by the previous year's harvest data.

例如，我們的噴霧機利用種植引導線來提高效率和準確性，從而減少作物損失，而公用事業營運則根據上一年的收成數據進行了解。

Slide 15 highlights the comprehensive systems we are building.

幻燈片 15 重點介紹了我們正在建立的綜合系統。

The first component of our precision ag system is the most important and can't be overlooked.

我們的精密農業系統的第一個組成部分是最重要且不容忽視的。

Our precision ag strategy begins with the underlying equipment that executes a job in the field.

我們的精準農業策略始於在現場執行作業的基礎設備。

While our industry is attracting new players from nontraditional discipline, such as software or robotics, these technologies must ultimately be paired with ag equipment to accomplish the tasks in the field.

雖然我們的行業正在吸引來自非傳統學科（例如軟體或機器人技術）的新參與者，但這些技術最終必須與農業設備合作才能完成該領域的任務。

As a result, Deere's primary advantage comes from a product offering that spans each step in the production system, paired with the industry's largest installed base and coupled with complementary technology applied to each product within that production system.

因此，迪爾的主要優勢來自於涵蓋生產系統中每個步驟的產品供應，與行業最大的安裝基礎相結合，並結合應用於該生產系統中每個產品的互補技術。

The last component required to deliver precision solutions is a dealer network that can sell, service and support the latest technologies.

提供精準解決方案所需的最後一個組成部分是可以銷售、服務和支援最新技術的經銷商網路。

Increasingly, the last mile is becoming one of the most critical enablers for precision adoption, and our channel has been leading the industry in terms of modernizing their capabilities and their staff.

最後一哩程正日益成為精準採用的最關鍵推動因素之一，我們的管道在能力和員工現代化方面一直處於行業領先地位。

In short, our precision strategy is very much a system of ag equipment, combined with core technologies and a dealer support network, working in concert together to make farming more productive and more sustainable.

簡而言之，我們的精準策略在很大程度上是一個農業設備系統，與核心技術和經銷商支援網路相結合，共同努力使農業更有效率、更永續。

While we are immensely proud of the success we've achieved so far, we are even more enthusiastic about the runway of opportunity that's ahead of us.

雖然我們對迄今為止所取得的成功感到無比自豪，但我們對眼前的機會更加充滿熱情。

Throughout our precision journey, we've experienced several inflection points where technology advancements unlock new possibilities and extend our runway beyond our prior ambitions.

在我們的精準之旅中，我們經歷了幾個轉折點，技術進步釋放了新的可能性，並擴展了我們的跑道，超越了我們之前的雄心壯志。

Innovations in connectivity, advanced onboard computing and artificial intelligence have reset the realm of possibilities.

連接性、先進的機載計算和人工智慧方面的創新已經重新設定了可能性的領域。

Today, we see many years of runway for each of our existing core technologies individually.

如今，我們現有的每項核心技術都已經有多年的發展前景。

Furthermore, the opportunity set extends much further as we begin stacking these core capabilities to create new functionality in our future product road maps.

此外，當我們開始堆疊這些核心功能以在未來的產品路線圖中建立新功能時，機會集會進一步擴展。

Over the course of the year, we look forward to providing further details regarding the opportunity set in front of us, and we'll also provide further color on some of the exciting product releases coming to market in the near term.

在這一年中，我們期待提供有關擺在我們面前的機會的更多詳細信息，並且我們還將提供有關近期上市的一些令人興奮的產品的更多信息。

Before turning the call back over, I'd like to offer a few comments on the acquisition of Harvest Profit, a software platform that's focused on farmer profitability.

在重新接通電話之前，我想就收購 Harvest Profit 發表一些評論，Harvest Profit 是一個專注於農民獲利能力的軟體平台。

We are striving to make our customers the most profitable and sustainable in their industry.

我們致力於使我們的客戶在其行業中獲得最大的利潤和永續發展。

We can't accomplish that without being able to help customers measure profitability.

如果無法幫助客戶衡量獲利能力，我們就無法實現這一目標。

Harvest Profit gives us a significant boost in ensuring we help customers make more profitable and sustainable decisions in the years to come.

Harvest Profit 為我們提供了巨大的推動力，確保我們幫助客戶在未來幾年做出更有利可圖和可持續的決策。

Additionally, with the precision ag opportunity set growing substantially over the next decade, we see significant value in our ability to ascribe value of our precision tools to our customers, and this acquisition provides us a path to attribute that value, thus furthering the adoption of technology.

此外，隨著精密農業機會在未來十年大幅增長，我們看到了將精密工具的價值賦予客戶的能力的巨大價值，而此次收購為我們提供了一條賦予該價值的途徑，從而進一步推動了技術。

At this time, I'll turn the call over to Ryan Campbell for year-end guidance and closing thoughts.

此時，我會將電話轉給 Ryan Campbell，以獲取年終指導和結束想法。

Ryan?

瑞安？

Thanks, Jahmy.

謝謝，賈米。

Slide 16 outlines our guidance for net income, our effective tax rate and operating cash flow.

投影片 16 概述了我們對淨利潤、有效稅率和營運現金流的指導。

For fiscal year '21, our full year outlook for net income is forecast to be between $3.6 billion to $4 billion.

對於 21 財年，我們的全年淨利潤前景預計在 36 億美元至 40 億美元之間。

It's important to note that constraints in the supply base and labor force availability due to COVID-19 remain key risks to our fiscal year '21 guide.

值得注意的是，由於 COVID-19 造成的供應基礎和勞動力供應的限制仍然是我們 21 財政年度指南的主要風險。

The guidance incorporates an effective tax rate projected to be 26% to 28%.

該指導意見的有效稅率預計為 26% 至 28%。

Lastly, cash flow from the equipment operations is expected to be in the range of $3.8 billion to $4.2 billion and contemplates a $700 million voluntary contribution to our OPEB plan.

最後，設備營運產生的現金流預計在 38 億至 42 億美元之間，並考慮向我們的 OPEB 計劃自願捐款 7 億美元。

Before we respond to your questions, I'd like to offer some perspective on 2020, the prospects ahead of us and a few thoughts on our portfolio and capital allocation strategy.

在回答您的問題之前，我想先談談對 2020 年的一些看法、我們的前景，以及對我們的投資組合和資本配置策略的一些想法。

As we look back on 2020, it's important to acknowledge the exceptional efforts taken by our employees, suppliers and dealer channel this year.

當我們回顧 2020 年時，必須承認我們的員工、供應商和經銷商通路今年所做的卓越努力。

Employees across our company logged extra hours and adapted to an ever-changing environment to create safe working conditions and ensure the supply of parts and equipment to our customers so that they could continue their essential work.

我們公司的員工加班，適應不斷變化的環境，以創造安全的工作條件，並確保向客戶供應零件和設備，以便他們可以繼續其基本工作。

Similarly, our dealers quickly adjusted to the pandemic and played a critical role keeping our customers' businesses operating.

同樣，我們的經銷商迅速適應了這場流行病，並在維持客戶業務運作方面發揮了關鍵作用。

This year served as a reminder of just how impressive our dealer group is, and we are grateful for the tremendous performance they put forth.

今年提醒我們，我們的經銷商團隊是多麼令人印象深刻，我們對他們所取得的巨大業績表示感謝。

And as a result of the effort put forth by employees, suppliers and dealers, we posted one of the strongest fourth quarter performances in company history.

由於員工、供應商和經銷商的努力，我們實現了公司歷史上最強勁的第四季業績之一。

Excluding costs associated with employee separations and impairments, our Construction & Forestry division achieved 11% margins, the highest fourth quarter since 2014.

排除與員工離職和損傷相關的成本，我們的建築和林業部門實現了 11% 的利潤率，這是自 2014 年以來第四季度的最高水平。

Similarly, Ag & Turf fourth quarter margins, excluding special items, were approximately 16.5%, which is the highest fourth quarter in the division's history, eclipsing results from 2013 despite around $1 billion less in net sales.

同樣，除特殊項目外，Ag & Turf 第四季度利潤率約為16.5%，這是該部門歷史上最高的第四季度利潤，儘管淨銷售額減少了約10 億美元，但仍超過了2013 年的業績。

While encouraged by our recent results, we are even more excited by the opportunity ahead of us.

雖然我們對最近的成果感到鼓舞，但我們對眼前的機會更加興奮。

In the midst of addressing a global pandemic, we also instituted a new strategy for the company over the year.

在應對全球大流行的過程中，我們在這一年中也為公司製定了新策略。

In doing so, we accomplished 3 primary objectives: one, we've reorganized the company around production systems to mirror the way our customers do business; two, we've taken significant strides towards optimizing our cost structure; and three, we've adapted our investment priorities to ensure a greater degree of focus on the products and solutions that are most differentiated and unlock the highest value to our customers.

在這個過程中，我們實現了 3 個主要目標：第一，我們圍繞生產系統重組了公司，以反映客戶開展業務的方式；第二，我們在優化成本結構方面取得了重大進展；第三，我們調整了投資重點，以確保更專注於最具差異化的產品和解決方案，並為客戶釋放最高價值。

A more focused R&D investment strategy is essential to realizing the value of the technology stack that Jahmy just described.

更集中的研發投資策略對於實現賈米剛才所描述的技術堆疊的價值至關重要。

While we spent decades investing in the core competencies that comprise our current technology stack, we see significant runway ahead to build on what we have done in advanced technology for our next generation of solutions, and our new strategy plays a vital role in unlocking the necessary capital to achieve the potential we believe is possible.

雖然我們花了數十年的時間投資於構成我們當前技術堆疊的核心能力，但我們看到，在下一代解決方案的先進技術基礎上，我們還有很長的路要走，而我們的新策略在釋放必要的技術方面發揮著至關重要的作用。

2020 has been a year of change at Deere, and that has included some activity with respect to our portfolio.

2020 年是迪爾發生變化的一年，其中包括我們產品組合方面的一些活動。

In some cases, we've made decisions to exit businesses or reduce footprint to serve markets more efficiently.

在某些情況下，我們決定退出業務或減少足跡，以更有效地服務市場。

While in other areas, we've added to our capabilities, such as our recent purchases of Unimil and Harvest Profit.

在其他領域，我們增強了我們的能力，例如我們最近收購了 Unimil 和 Harvest Profit。

As we contemplate 2021, we expect to continue our portfolio evaluation, which may result in additional activity throughout the duration of the year.

在我們展望 2021 年時，我們預計將繼續進行投資組合評估，這可能會導致全年開展更多活動。

As such, we intend to provide regular updates on subsequent earnings calls as we take actions in this area.

因此，當我們在這一領域採取行動時，我們打算定期提供後續財報電話會議的最新資訊。

Now while we've made efforts to better focus the internal investments we are making, please note that our overall priorities related to our cash resources remain the same.

現在，雖然我們已經努力更好地集中我們正在進行的內部投資，但請注意，我們與現金資源相關的整體優先事項保持不變。

We remain committed to our A rating, and we'll continue to fund our operations at levels that support our strategic initiatives.

我們仍然致力於維持 A 級評級，並將繼續以支持我們策略舉措的水平為我們的營運提供資金。

Next, we'll pay a dividend within our targeted income range.

接下來，我們將在目標收入範圍內支付股利。

And with other priorities secured, we will return capital through our share repurchase program.

在確保其他優先事項後，我們將透過股票回購計畫返還資本。

We resume the program in the fourth quarter, and we'll continue to execute on our capital priorities in 2021.

我們在第四季度恢復該計劃，並將在 2021 年繼續執行我們的資本優先事項。

Thanks, Ryan.

謝謝，瑞安。

Now we're ready to begin the Q&A portion of the call.

現在我們準備開始電話的問答部分。

The operator will instruct you on the procedures.

接線員將指導您操作程序。

(Operator Instructions) Robyn?

（操作員指示）羅賓？

(Operator Instructions) And our first question is from Jerry Revich with Goldman Sachs.

（操作員說明）我們的第一個問題來自高盛的 Jerry Revich。

Yes.

是的。

I'm wondering if you could talk about ag and turf incremental margins from here?

我想知道您是否可以在這裡談論農業和草坪增量利潤？

Obviously, you got to really strong margins much earlier in the cycle than most of us expected.

顯然，你在周期中比我們大多數人預期的要早得多，就獲得了非常高的利潤。

How should we think about operating leverage from here, assuming we do get a multiyear ag and turf recovery?

假設我們確實實現了多年的農業和地盤恢復，我們應該如何考慮這裡的營運槓桿？

Can you still offer these higher levels, deliver 30%-plus increment margins as we think about what a multiyear recovery could look like?

當我們考慮多年復甦可能會是什麼樣子時，你們還能提供這些更高的水平，提供 30% 以上的增量利潤嗎？

Yes.

是的。

Thanks, Jerry.

謝謝，傑瑞。

As it relates to the margins and thinking about next year, 2021, 15.5% to 16.5% absolute margins, we do expect that we can do roughly 30% to 35% from an incremental basis in kind of the underlying operations.

由於它與利潤率有關，並考慮到明年（2021 年）15.5% 至 16.5% 的絕對利潤率，我們確實預計我們可以在基礎業務的增量基礎上實現大約 30% 至 35% 的增長。

I mean I think when you think about this year, a few things to consider as far as potential -- or not potential headwinds in the forecast would be incentive comp has moved up and is a bit higher in '21.

我的意思是，我認為，當你考慮今年時，就潛力而言，需要考慮一些事情——或者預測中的潛在阻力，即激勵補償已經上升，並且在 21 年會更高一些。

From a company-wide perspective, that's about $160 million headwind.

從整個公司的角度來看，這大約是 1.6 億美元的逆風。

And then we are seeing a little bit higher overhead costs.

然後我們看到間接費用有點高。

Some of that's related to volume but certainly still have some of that related to just overall caution as it relates to COVID and the impacts as we're seeing spread and contagion in a lot of our key geographies.

其中一些與數量有關，但肯定還有一些與整體謹慎有關，因為它與新冠病毒及其影響有關，因為我們在許多關鍵地區看到了病毒的傳播和蔓延。

Yes.

是的。

Jerry, it's Ryan.

傑瑞，是瑞安。

I think a way to think about it, we've structurally improved the profitability of the equipment operations, including ag and turf.

我認為，我們從結構上提高了設備業務的盈利能力，包括農業和草坪業務。

But we intend, over the long run, to still operate with that flexibility that gives us the ability to perform on an incremental basis in the 30% to 35% range.

但從長遠來看，我們仍打算保持這種靈活性，使我們能夠在 30% 至 35% 的範圍內增量執行。

Our next question is from Jamie Cook with Crédit Suisse.

我們的下一個問題來自瑞士信貸銀行的傑米庫克。

I guess my question, if we just -- if you assume the high end of your guide on the sales and on the margin front, it implies your margins are already almost hitting the 15% mid-cycle margin target that you guys have laid out.

我想我的問題是，如果我們假設您的銷售和利潤率指南處於高端，這意味著您的利潤率已經幾乎達到了你們制定的 15% 的中期利潤率目標。

So I'm just -- what's embedded in your view of the cycle in your 2021 guidance?

所以我只是——您在 2021 年指南中對週期的看法包含哪些內容？

And I guess the longer-term question is, are we further along than we thought we would be?

我想更長期的問題是，我們的進展是否比我們想像的更進一步？

Do we need to revisit that target?

我們需要重新審視該目標嗎？

I'm just wondering if the market underappreciates the margin story for Deere longer term?

我只是想知道市場是否低估了迪爾長期的利潤故事？

The -- if you think about where we're at in the cycle, ag and turf, this year, we're projecting to be pretty close to mid-cycle.

如果你考慮我們今年在農業和草皮週期中的位置，我們預計將非常接近週期中期。

That said, mix is still not normal.

也就是說，混合仍然不正常。

We think large ag in North America is around 90% mid-cycle.

我們認為北美的大型農業大約 90% 處於週期中期。

Small ag, overall, a little bit above mid-cycle, so relatively close but not there.

總體而言，小 ag 略高於週期中期，因此相對接近，但並不存在。

That's -- I think what we've seen is significant progress on the margin front.

我認為我們看到的是利潤率的重大進展。

As Ryan mentioned, we feel like we've structurally improved our ability to perform and execute and drive that margin level, so we're continuing to work on that and as implied with our guidance next year expecting above that 15% target for ag and turf in '21.

正如Ryan 所提到的，我們認為我們已經在結構上提高了我們執行和推動利潤水平的能力，因此我們將繼續努力實現這一目標，正如我們明年的指導所暗示的那樣，預計農業和食品行業的目標將超過15% 21年的草皮。

But in total, for the company, is the 15% too low now, I guess I'm asking?

但總的來說，對於公司來說，現在 15% 是否太低了？

Because we're getting there on a combined basis, and we're not even at mid-cycle.

因為我們是在綜合基礎上實現這一目標的，而且我們甚至還沒有處於週期中期。

Yes, Jamie.

是的，傑米。

The goal was for 2022 kind of at mid-cycle.

目標是 2022 年，處於週期中期。

We'll continue to execute and deliver on that.

我們將繼續執行並兌現這項承諾。

And then 2022, we'll take a step back and reflect on what we want to drive into the future, particularly focusing on making the investments that really can change the game for our customers and create value for them.

然後到 2022 年，我們將退後一步，反思我們想要推動未來的發展，特別是專注於進行真正可以改變客戶遊戲規則並為他們創造價值的投資。

So hang with us and wait until we execute and deliver in 2022, but we've got a long runway of things that we can do to make our customers better.

因此，請耐心等待我們在 2022 年執行和交付，但我們還有很長的路要走，可以讓我們的客戶變得更好。

Our next question is Steven Fisher with UBS.

我們的下一個問題是瑞銀集團的史蒂文費雪。

Just curious to ask you about how you're factoring in raw materials costs for fiscal '21?

只是想問一下您如何考慮 21 財年的原物料成本？

We're seeing some steel price increases, but I noticed your COGS percent assumed is lower in the forecast.

我們看到鋼材價格上漲，但我注意到你們預測的銷貨成本百分比較低。

So just curious what you kind of -- how you thought about that front half versus back half.

所以只是好奇你是什麼樣的——你如何看待前半部分和後半部分。

Steve, when we look at material, we've had a tailwind in 2020 from a material point of view, in particular, on steel.

史蒂夫，當我們審視材料時，從材料的角度來看，2020 年我們順風順水，特別是在鋼鐵方面。

That's after we saw increases in '18 and into '19, so it has been favorable at this point.

那是在我們看到 18 年和 19 年的成長之後，所以目前情況是有利的。

As we look forward into 2021, our contracts, we tend to cover a quarter a little bit more in terms of the lag time between price movements and when we see those come through, so we have some coverage there.

當我們展望 2021 年時，我們的合約往往會在價格變動和看到這些變化發生之間的滯後時間方面多覆蓋四分之一，因此我們在那裡有一些覆蓋範圍。

So to your point, to the extent you see some of that inflation probably more impactful later in the year.

因此，就您的觀點而言，您認為今年稍後部分通膨可能會產生更大的影響。

That said, as we kind of step back and look at material overall are seeing some of those trends in terms of prices moving up, but we're also pretty confident in some cost-reduction projects and things we have going on that we think about material kind of coming in relatively stable year-over-year.

也就是說，當我們退後一步並整體審視材料時，我們看到了價格上漲的一些趨勢，但我們對一些成本削減項目以及我們正在考慮的事情也非常有信心材料種類同比相對穩定。

Thanks, Steve.

謝謝，史蒂夫。

Our next question is from Stephen Volkmann with Jefferies.

我們的下一個問題來自 Jefferies 的 Stephen Volkmann。

I wonder if we can spend a moment on the pricing question.

我想知道我們是否可以花點時間討論定價問題。

You guys obviously had very good pricing, especially in A&T in the fourth quarter, and I guess the outlook is pretty good as well.

顯然你們的定價非常好，尤其是第四季的 A&T，我想前景也相當不錯。

Can you just kind of describe what you're seeing there and why it's as positive as it is?

您能描述一下您在那裡看到的情況以及為什麼它如此積極嗎？

Pricing, Steve, you're right, was better than expected in the fourth quarter.

史蒂夫，你是對的，第四季的定價比預期好。

I think maybe backing up, what hasn't changed is our philosophy on pricing, continuing to focus on value and the upside that we can create for our customers.

我認為也許支持一下，沒有改變的是我們的定價理念，繼續專注於價值和我們可以為客戶創造的優勢。

I think when you look specifically at what we saw in fourth quarter for ag and turf, there are a few things that drove that level of pricing.

我認為，當你具體觀察第四季農業和草坪的情況時，有一些因素推動了這個定價水準。

One -- and we noted Brent kind of mentioned this in his comments, we had tighter inventory positions kind of across most of our geographies and models, in particular, on small tractors and turf, that drove less spend as a result of tighter levels of inventory.

一- 我們注意到布倫特在他的評論中提到了這一點，我們在大多數地區和型號上的庫存狀況都比較緊張，特別是在小型拖拉機和草坪上，由於緊張水平的收緊，導致支出減少存貨。

That's one component.

這是其中一個組成部分。

The other piece, and we talked a little bit about this last quarter, we saw more of it this quarter, was the cost for low-rate programs.

另一件事情是低利率項目的成本，上個季度我們對此進行了一些討論，本季我們看到了更多。

So buying down interest rates to offer low-rate programs to our customers, which are pretty prevalent in small tractors and turf.

因此，降低利率是為了向我們的客戶提供低利率計劃，這在小型拖拉機和草坪上非常普遍。

That cost was lower as a result of just lower interest rates in the market.

由於市場利率較低，成本較低。

So that was impactful.

所以這很有影響力。

And then lastly, we saw pricing overseas.

最後，我們看到了海外的定價。

We had continued strength in a number of overseas markets that benefited price in the quarter so that we ended the year strong, obviously, and are forecasting about 3 points next year, so continue to manage that.

我們在一些海外市場持續走強，這對本季的價格有利，因此我們在年底表現強勁，顯然，並預測明年大約 3 個點，所以繼續管理。

I think part of that, too, you think about, as we go into the year with tighter inventories, we think that lends itself to a little bit lighter incentive spending as we work to recover some of that inventory in '21.

我認為這也是其中的一部分，你會想到，當我們進入庫存緊張的一年時，我們認為這有助於減少激勵支出，因為我們努力在 21 年恢復部分庫存。

Thanks, Steve.

謝謝，史蒂夫。

Our next question is from Ann Duignan with JPMorgan.

我們的下一個問題來自摩根大通的 Ann Duignan。

It's Ann Duignan.

我是安杜伊南。

I just wanted to ask you about your comment that you're only at about 90% of mid-cycle in large ag going into fiscal '21.

我只是想問你的評論，進入 21 財年，大型農業公司僅處於中期週期的 90% 左右。

That seems a little inconceivable to me given that farmers are sitting there with $50 billion in excess government payments this year on top of $24 billion that they received last year.

這對我來說似乎有點不可思議，因為除了去年農民收到的 240 億美元之外，今年農民還獲得了 500 億美元的超額政府付款。

And so the notion that they're not spending now given the fundamentals and given the extra money they have and with government payments expected to revert to normal going forward, why wouldn't '21 represent the new peak, not 90% of normal?

因此，考慮到基本面和他們擁有的額外資金，以及政府付款預計將恢復正常，他們現在不花錢的想法，為什麼 21 年不會代表新的峰值，而不是正常水平的 90%？

Yes.

是的。

So maybe as we think about that, I mean, maybe a little bit of a journey.

所以也許當我們思考這個問題時，我的意思是，也許是一段旅程。

Last year, 2020, we were around 80% of mid-cycle for large ag in North America, so we're seeing that step up to about 90%.

去年，也就是 2020 年，北美大型農業公司處於週期中期的 80% 左右，因此我們看到這一數字將上升至 90% 左右。

So we are seeing that.

所以我們正在看到這一點。

Maybe taking a few of those pieces of your comments there as it relates to what's going on, government support, obviously, has been very strong.

也許您的一些評論與正在發生的事情有關，顯然，政府的支持非常強大。

I think from a customer perspective, the preference would be access to markets over aid.

我認為從客戶的角度來看，優先考慮的是進入市場而不是援助。

I think that's underlying.

我認為這是根本性的。

And as we've seen from this -- some of the export markets open up, I think you're seeing more sentiment improve.

正如我們從中看到的——一些出口市場開放，我認為你會看到更多的情緒改善。

But the aid has, in large part, in our view, been used to pay down debt and really manage and shore our balance sheet.

但我們認為，援助在很大程度上被用來償還債務並真正管理和支撐我們的資產負債表。

So I think that's been a positive.

所以我認為這是積極的。

And underlying that also, you're seeing strong land values in the Midwest, seen some upward movement in land values.

在此基礎上，您也看到中西部地區的土地價值強勁，土地價值出現了一些上升趨勢。

So I think underpinning there a really strong balance sheet for farmers, particularly as we exit the year.

因此，我認為農民的資產負債表非常強勁，特別是在今年結束時。

Fundamentals have moved, and they've moved really over the last 6 weeks.

基本面發生了變化，而且在過去六週確實發生了變化。

So it's been pretty recent as you -- on the back of kind of revisions down of ending inventories of commodities, China purchases, and then obviously, the aid that you've mentioned, I think all of those we've seen impact sentiment.

因此，正如您所說，這是最近發生的事情——在大宗商品最終庫存的下調、中國的採購，以及顯然您提到的援助的背景下，我認為我們看到的所有這些都影響了情緒。

So those things have been positive.

所以這些事情都是正面的。

So I think as it relates to looking forward, we don't expect aid to recur, but we do believe higher commodity prices are going to benefit cash receipts as we go forward.

因此，我認為，就展望未來而言，我們預計援助不會再次出現，但我們確實相信，隨著我們的前進，大宗商品價格上漲將有利於現金收入。

So we don't expect a huge downward movement in cash receipts for principal crops in '21.

因此，我們預計 21 年主要作物的現金收入不會大幅下降。

Saying all of that, I think we said -- I could say we are seeing demand pick up.

綜上所述，我想我們說過──我可以說我們看到需求有所回升。

We're seeing that in early order programs and the large tractor order book that Brent mentioned.

我們在早期訂單計劃和布倫特提到的大型拖拉機訂單簿中看到了這一點。

So I think we're really kind of at an inflection point right now where we've seen it -- seeing demand move.

所以我認為我們現在確實正處於一個轉折點，我們已經看到了需求的改變。

So I think we would say there's still a long runway of replacement demand as you look at the age of the fleet and those sorts of things.

因此，我認為我們會說，當你考慮機隊的年齡和諸如此類的事情時，替換需求仍然很長。

So we think we're a ways off mid-cycle, let alone peak.

因此，我們認為我們距離週期中期還有一段距離，更不用說達到高峰了。

Thanks, Ann.

謝謝，安。

Our next question is from Robert Wertheimer with Melius Research.

我們的下一個問題來自 Melius Research 的 Robert Wertheimer。

And just -- I mean, obviously, you've had a very dynamic year with a lot going on.

我的意思是，顯然，你們度過了充滿活力的一年，發生了很多事情。

I wonder if you have any updated thoughts on either the buckets of margin as you think to getting your structural goal?

我想知道您對於實現結構性目標的利潤桶是否有任何最新想法？

And others have mentioned, you're pretty far advanced on that path.

其他人也提到過，你在這條道路上已經走得相當遠了。

And maybe if not that, I mean, do you see the same sort of long-term potential rising up in construction margins?

也許如果不是這樣，我的意思是，您是否認為建築利潤率也有相同的長期潛力上升？

There's a little bit less strength there, I guess, versus ag and then just a little -- maybe a little bit less potential on the [tech] side, I'm not sure.

我想，與農業相比，那裡的實力要弱一些，然後只是一點點——也許[科技]方面的潛力要弱一些，我不確定。

So just your thoughts on margin buckets and/or construction [structural] margin?

那麼，您對利潤桶和/或建築[結構]利潤有何看法？

Yes.

是的。

Rob.

搶。

I think, overall, bucket wise, not at all has changed as we think about the path to 15%.

我認為，總體而言，當我們思考通往 15% 的道路時，一切都沒有改變。

Certainly, costs, we've done a lot of work on the costs side as it relates to structure as well as we've begun work on footprint and those sorts of things.

當然，在成本方面，我們在成本方面做了很多工作，因為它與結構有關，並且我們已經開始在佔地面積和諸如此類的事情上開展工作。

So I think that we feel good about the progress there.

所以我認為我們對那裡的進展感到滿意。

Aftermarket continues to be something we're focused on.

售後市場仍然是我們關注的重點。

That's not something that changes immediately, but we like the organizational structure and the priorities that we've laid out there for the team and making good initial progress.

這不會立即改變，但我們喜歡我們為團隊制定的組織結構和優先事項，並取得了良好的初步進展。

And then precision ag, as Jahmy outlined, continues to be an opportunity for us.

正如賈米所概述的那樣，精準農業仍然是我們的一個機會。

And I think as we continue to develop technologies, I think we see more and more opportunity to leverage, and that's really where Jahmy's new org steps in.

我認為，隨著我們不斷開發技術，我們會看到越來越多的利用機會，而這正是賈米的新組織介入的地方。

As it relates to construction, certainly, I think continuing to operate efficiently there.

當然，由於它與建築有關，我認為繼續在那裡高效運作。

We've tried to be really disciplined on price, and you've seen that over the course of 2020, which has aided margins.

我們努力在價格上嚴格控制，你已經在 2020 年看到了這一點，這有助於提高利潤率。

The roadbuilding side of the business, we think, is going to be a substantial contributor as we think about the overall delivering 15% margin.

我們認為，道路建設方面的業務將成為一個重要的貢獻者，因為我們認為整體利潤率為 15%。

And this year, the roadbuilding side worked through a really choppy year and performed very, very well and proved out part of the hypothesis there that they're going to be less cyclical.

今年，道路建設方面經歷了非常動蕩的一年，表現非常非常好，部分證明了他們的周期性將會減少的假設。

And that was certainly the case.

情況確實如此。

They ended the year down about 8% compared to construction, which was down much more significantly.

與建築業相比，它們在今年年底下降了約 8%，而建築業的下降幅度要大得多。

And maybe the last thing, on the construction side, where we do think we have an opportunity to drive margin and differentiation is on technology.

也許最後一件事，在建築方面，我們確實認為我們有機會提高利潤和差異化，那就是科技。

So maybe I'll ask Jahmy to talk a little bit about how we think we can leverage technology in C&F and roadbuilding.

因此，也許我會請 Jahmy 談談我們如何在 C&F 和道路建設中利用科技。

Yes.

是的。

Thanks, Rob, for the question.

謝謝羅布的提問。

I do think if you look at precision generally, right, many of the technologies that we're developing on the ag side have applicability at the component level within our construction and roadbuilding products as well, and the benefits of precision extend to that business also, thus need to be more precise with equipment, reduce the amount of time the equipment spends on a job site to do the job.

我確實認為，如果你總體上看待精度，那麼我們在農業方面開發的許多技術也適用於我們的建築和道路建設產品的組件級別，並且精度的好處也擴展到該業務，因此需要更精確地使用設備，減少設備在工作現場完成工作所花費的時間。

Those sorts of things all factor into our ability to take technology that we're developing within the enterprise and apply it to the construction and roadbuilding products as well.

這些因素都影響我們採用我們在企業內部開發的技術並將其應用於建築和道路建設產品的能力。

Thanks, Rob.

謝謝，羅布。

Our next question is from Chad Dillard with Bernstein.

我們的下一個問題來自查德·迪拉德和伯恩斯坦。

So can you talk about your precision ag take rates in the early order program?

那麼您能談談您在早期訂單計劃中的精準農業接受率嗎？

How are rates from ExactEmerge and Apply, how they compare versus last year?

ExactEmerge 和 Apply 的費率如何？

And have you start to offer See & Spray as a part of the early order program?

您是否已開始提供 See & Spray 作為早期訂購計劃的一部分？

And if you could give some color on take rates there?

您能否對那裡的轉換率進行一些說明？

And then just lastly, just maybe you could talk about the road map for precision ag beyond corn and soybean ecosystem.

最後，也許您可以談談玉米和大豆生態系統以外的精準農業路線圖。

And will it require new technology beyond the current offering?

它是否需要超越目前產品的新技術？

Just that.

只是。

Yes.

是的。

I'll start there.

我將從這裡開始。

I mean from the early order program, we saw take rates kind of at -- in line with what we talked about a quarter ago, so in the low 40s on ExactEmerge; high 40s, near 50 on ExactApply; and then Combine Advisor, actually in the 70s.

我的意思是，從早期訂單計劃來看，我們看到的接受率與我們一個季度前談論的一致，因此在 ExactEmerge 上處於 40 多歲以下； ExactApply 上最高 40 分，接近 50 分；然後是Combine Advisor，實際上是在 70 年代。

So those specific solutions now, we've got a few years under our belt.

所以現在這些具體的解決方案，我們已經掌握了好幾年了。

We're seeing continued strong adoption there, which has been positive and I think just clearly demonstrating the value of what those can do when you think about executing the jobs that those customers are performing.

我們看到那裡的持續強勁採用，這是積極的，我認為，當您考慮執行這些客戶正在執行的工作時，這只是清楚地展示了這些可以做的事情的價值。

Maybe from a See & Spray perspective, Jahmy, you want to talk a little bit just about what we've seen from a technology perspective, having it out in the field?

也許從 See & Spray 的角度來看，Jahmy，您想談談我們從技術角度看到的情況嗎？

Yes.

是的。

So we've had machines with customers over the last -- prototype machines over the last 12 months and especially this summer learned a lot.

因此，我們在過去 12 個月內與客戶合作開發了原型機，尤其是今年夏天，我們學到了很多。

We will have machines with customers next summer as well, and the feedback has largely been outstanding, right?

明年夏天我們也將向客戶提供機器，並且反饋基本上非常出色，對吧？

People gravitate to the value proposition.

人們會被價值主張所吸引。

They get it.

他們明白了。

They understand it, and it's easily demonstrable.

他們理解這一點，而且很容易證明。

The -- I'll maybe take this a different direction past See & Spray and just talk maybe about the question on how applicable is technology outside of corn and soy from a production system perspective and tell you what we're really doing is we're giving machines vision and intelligence, right?

- 我可能會採取與 See & Spray 不同的方向，只是談論從生產系統的角度來看，玉米和大豆之外的技術如何適用的問題，並告訴你我們真正在做的是我們'賦予機器視覺和智能，對吧？

And that extends well past this sort of a multidimensional runway.

這遠遠超出了這種多維跑道的範疇。

It extends well past corn and soy into other ag production systems.

它遠遠超出了玉米和大豆，並延伸到了其他農業生產系統。

It also extends past the ag production systems into several of our Construction & Forestry and roadbuilding segments.

它也從農業生產系統延伸到我們的幾個建築和林業以及道路建設領域。

And so there's a lot of opportunity out there, just with making machines more capable from a vision and intelligence perspective.

因此，只要從視覺和智慧的角度讓機器變得更強大，就有很多機會。

And then there's another dimension of that that's the data thread that, that creates that links all of these steps within a production system together, so really exciting step to come and definitely applicable outside of corn and soy.

然後還有另一個維度，那就是數據線程，它創建將生產系統中的所有這些步驟鏈接在一起，因此真正令人興奮的一步即將到來，並且絕對適用於玉米和大豆之外的領域。

Yes.

是的。

Maybe one last thing to add on to that, Chad, is we're also seeing the opportunity on geographic growth from a precision ag perspective.

查德，也許最後要補充的一點是，我們也從精準農業的角度看到了地理成長的機會。

We've seen really strong upward movement in engaged acres globally, but in particular, in South America and in Europe.

我們看到全球參與面積的成長非常強勁，特別是在南美洲和歐洲。

So as we think about -- you got this opportunity on a geographic basis, across ag and turf and C&F and then essentially every job that customers are doing.

因此，正如我們所想，你在地理上獲得了這個機會，跨農業、地盤和 C&F，然後基本上是客戶正在做的每一項工作。

Thanks, Chad.

謝謝，查德。

Our next question is Joel Tiss with BMO.

我們的下一個問題是 BMO 的 Joel Tiss。

I just wondered if you can talk a little more deeply about C&F from like a structural standpoint and the ability to get to 15% operating margins and maybe also just the -- touching on the ability to get paid for putting precision software into the machines.

我只是想知道您是否可以從結構的角度更深入地談論 C&F，以及獲得 15% 營業利潤率的能力，也許還只是 - 涉及將精密軟體放入機器中獲得報酬的能力。

Yes.

是的。

I think on the margin side, we're seeing -- we've seen -- I think the division performed pretty resiliently through a year in which sales were down pretty significantly.

我認為在利潤方面，我們看到——我們已經看到——我認為該部門在銷售額大幅下降的一年中表現相當有彈性。

And we -- North American construction equipment, we took out about 30% of field inventory, so pretty significant action this year to put us in position to build in line with retail next year.

我們——北美建築設備，我們拿出了大約 30% 的現場庫存，因此今年採取了相當重大的行動，使我們能夠與明年的零售保持一致。

So I think the actions we're taking overall as a company as it relates to cost structure are beneficial here.

因此，我認為我們作為一家公司整體採取的與成本結構相關的行動在這裡是有益的。

Jahmy's organization from a CTO perspective, pulling the technology together to be able to leverage across, we think that's a big opportunity.

從 CTO 的角度來看，Jahmy 的組織將技術整合在一起以能夠充分利用，我們認為這是一個巨大的機會。

And he just mentioned a few examples of where we think we can do that.

他剛剛提到了一些我們認為可以做到這一點的例子。

The roadbuilding side continues to be one where we see the opportunity to continue to grow there and grow margin as we execute both integration plans and everything else there.

道路建設方面仍然是我們看到繼續成長和提高利潤的機會的地方，因為我們執行整合計劃和其他一切。

So I think we feel like we've got a runway there to improve and continuing to focus on markets and products where we can differentiate to deliver margin performance.

因此，我認為我們覺得我們已經有一條改進的道路，並繼續專注於我們可以實現差異化以提供利潤率表現的市場和產品。

Thanks, Joel.

謝謝，喬爾。

Our next question is from David Raso with Evercore.

我們的下一個問題來自 Evercore 的 David Raso。

With the A&T sales midpoint guide, the 12.5%, but 4% of that, you noted, is pricing currency.

您指出，根據 A&T 銷售中點指南，12.5%（但其中 4%）是定價貨幣。

That's only about, obviously, 8.5% implied volume.

顯然，這僅約為隱含交易量的 8.5%。

So if my math is right, the way you destock small ag this year, I mean, 2020, the small ag business alone just returning back in line with retail, with their production almost accounts for almost all that 8.5% volume growth.

因此，如果我的數學是正確的，那麼今年小型農業去庫存的方式，我的意思是，到2020 年，僅小型農業業務就將與零售業恢復一致，其產量幾乎佔了8.5% 銷量增長的幾乎全部。

So I just want to make sure, if those numbers are the correct, are you indeed implying large ag sales in '21 are really not growing much at all?

所以我只是想確定一下，如果這些數字是正確的，您是否確實暗示 21 年的大型農業銷售實際上根本沒有增長太多？

And if so, given the order book commentary, the inventory commentary, why is that?

如果是這樣，考慮到訂單簿評論和庫存評論，這是為什麼？

Yes.

是的。

So when you think about the kind of the sales and linking that up with the outlooks, I mean, the biggest components to that are, from a large ag perspective in North America, we expect to build in line with retail.

因此，當你考慮銷售類型並將其與前景聯繫起來時，我的意思是，從北美的大型農業角度來看，最大的組成部分是，我們預計將與零售業保持一致。

Small ag, roughly, we expect to be flat in North America.

粗略地說，我們預計北美地區的小型農業將持平。

To your point, we will produce above retail on small tractors, and we expect to build some inventory.

就您的觀點而言，我們將在小型拖拉機上生產高於零售的產品，並且我們預計會建立一些庫存。

We're coming off historic lows.

我們正在走出歷史低點。

Last year, I think we ended at 55% inventory to sales.

去年，我認為我們的庫存與銷售比率為 55%。

This year, we ended at 20%, so we will see some recovery there.

今年，我們的成長率為 20%，因此我們會看到一些復甦。

But again, we expect that market to be relatively flat, but we will build some inventory there.

但同樣，我們預計市場將相對平穩，但我們將在那裡建立一些庫存。

In South America, Brazil, in particular, we will probably recover.

在南美洲，特別是巴西，我們可能會恢復。

We expect to recover a little bit of inventory that got depleted in 4Q as the market turned pretty strongly in the fourth quarter.

由於第四季市場表現強勁，我們預計將恢復一點第四季耗盡的庫存。

So you're right.

所以你是對的。

I mean I think when you combine price and FX with kind of North America being up some, South America being up some and then overproduction to recover, replenish inventory on small tractors, that's kind of the math to get to those numbers.

我的意思是，我認為，當你將價格和外匯結合起來時，北美上漲一些，南美上漲一些，然後生產過剩以恢復，補充小型拖拉機的庫存，這就是獲得這些數字的數學方法。

Just a clarification, you said large ag in North America in line with retail.

請澄清一下，您所說的北美大型農業與零售業一致。

Is that not up in an up-retail forecast, meaning did you not destock at all in 2020 to where you'll actually produce lower than retail is up?

這是否不是零售成長預測中的成長，意味著您在 2020 年根本沒有去庫存到實際產量低於零售成長的水平？

Again, I can understand the flat coming off a year from destock, and you think retail is up.

再說一遍，我可以理解這套公寓在去庫存一年後，你認為零售業有所成長。

Yes.

是的。

We were -- we produced in line with retail and large ag in 2020, and we intend to do the same in '21.

我們在 2020 年按照零售和大型農業生產，我們打算在 21 年也這樣做。

Even though up a little bit, okay.

雖然漲了一點點，也還好吧。

Thanks, David.

謝謝，大衛。

Next question is from Nicole DeBlase with Deutsche Bank.

下一個問題來自德意志銀行的 Nicole DeBlase。

Yes.

是的。

I just wanted to make sure you could hear me.

我只是想確保你能聽到我的聲音。

So I guess maybe looking at the October retail sales trend.

所以我想也許可以看看十月的零售銷售趨勢。

I think in all the categories, ex 4-wheel drive tractors, it looks like Deere came in a bit below the industry.

我認為在所有類別中，除了四輪驅動拖拉機之外，迪爾的表現都略低於行業水平。

Could you just maybe explain a bit about what's going on there?

您能否解釋一下那裡發生的事情？

Yes.

是的。

I think there are a few things in play there.

我認為其中有一些因素在起作用。

I think given our order fulfillment model, focus on inventory management, and obviously, some of this demand is lumpy throughout the year, we will, at times, lose a little bit of short-term market share at inflection points.

我認為，考慮到我們的訂單履行模式、對庫存管理的關注，而且顯然，這種需求在全年中有些波動，我們有時會在拐點失去一點短期市場份額。

And I think that's some of what we saw this year, particularly as we got towards the end of the year, where we were tighter on inventory.

我認為這就是我們今年看到的一些情況，特別是在接近年底的時候，我們的庫存更加緊張。

And as we work through 2020 with the uncertainty kind of broad range across agriculture and even on the small tractor and turf side, we were -- tried to pretty diligently manage those inventories, and we were lighter at the end of the year when we saw the inflection.

當我們在整個 2020 年工作時，農業領域甚至小型拖拉機和草坪方面都存在廣泛的不確定性，我們試圖非常努力地管理這些庫存，當我們看到詞形變化。

Historically, what we've seen is we've been able to recover that as we're -- as we build that back up.

從歷史上看，我們所看到的是，當我們建立備份時，我們已經能夠恢復原樣。

So I think that's our expectation that you see us recover that as we go forward.

所以我認為這是我們的期望，你會看到我們在前進的過程中恢復這一點。

Yes.

是的。

It's Ryan.

是瑞安。

As Josh said, sometimes an inflection points, given our order fulfillment strategy, we may, on the margin, miss a few tractor or combine shares, but history would tell us that we will recover that back very quickly.

正如喬許所說，有時在拐點上，考慮到我們的訂單履行策略，我們可能會在一定程度上錯過一些拖拉機或聯合收割機份額，但歷史會告訴我們，我們將很快恢復這些份額。

And over the long run, we're, heads down, focused on creating sustainable market share growth through creating differentiated value for our customers.

從長遠來看，我們將專注於透過為客戶創造差異化價值來創造可持續的市場份額成長。

So that's really what we're focused on.

這才是我們真正關注的重點。

Thanks, Nicole.

謝謝，妮可。

Your next question is Larry De Maria with William Blair.

你的下一個問題是拉里·德·瑪麗亞和威廉·布萊爾。

I appreciate the tech stack discussion.

我很欣賞技術堆疊的討論。

We don't see on there is obviously Deere-prescribed agronomy.

我們沒有看到明顯的迪爾規定的農學。

And obviously, agronomy is embedded everywhere.

顯然，農學無所不在。

But now you bought a software company developing and have bought some AI capabilities, it seems logical for the road map that maybe be in position to recommend seeds since you have the data and you're getting down to individual plant level.

但現在你購買了一家正在開發的軟體公司，並購買了一些人工智慧功能，這對於路線圖來說似乎是合乎邏輯的，因為你擁有數據並且你正在深入到單個工廠級別，因此可能可以推薦種子。

So I'm just kind of curious, as this road map plays out, can you get into the prescription feed recommendation game?

所以我只是有點好奇，隨著這個路線圖的展開，你能進入處方飼料推薦遊戲嗎？

Because it seems like it's going that way?

因為事情似乎正在朝著那個方向發展？

Or alternatively, maybe it's more about making sure you can attribute value to Deere, so you can obtain greater pricing and greater wallet share from customers.

或者，也許更多的是確保您可以將價值歸因於迪爾，這樣您就可以從客戶那裡獲得更高的價格和更大的錢包份額。

So just trying to think and to see how this plays out over the next few years and as you maybe come into some more conflict with seed companies?

那麼，只是想思考一下，看看這在未來幾年會如何發展，因為您可能會與種子公司發生更多衝突？

Yes.

是的。

Thanks for the question.

謝謝你的提問。

I'll take it.

我要買它。

The -- I think the way to think about that right now is we're really focused on creating the data and collecting the data that any individual grower needs in order to make decisions exactly like the one that you're talking about, what seed hybrids they might plant in any given year.

我認為現在思考這個問題的方法是，我們真正專注於創建數據並收集任何個體種植者所需的數據，以便做出與您正在談論的決策完全一樣的決策，即種植什麼種子他們可能在任何一年種植雜交品種。

And at some point in the future, I think we'll have -- the growers have enough information because of the data they've collected over the previous production system steps over the previous years to optimize that seed choice.

在未來的某個時候，我認為我們將擁有足夠的信息，因為種植者在前幾年的生產系統步驟中收集了數據，以優化種子選擇。

But in the end, that's their choice to make.

但最終，這是他們的選擇。

They have a responsibility or they have a relationship with their trusted advisers, whoever that might be, in their agronomic community.

他們有責任，或與他們的農藝社區中值得信賴的顧問（無論是誰）有關係。

And they're the ones that are going to end up making that decision as they see it as best for their farm in any given year given their operations.

他們最終會做出這個決定，因為他們認為考慮到他們的運營，這對他們的農場在任何一年都是最好的。

Thanks, Larry.

謝謝，拉里。

Our next question is Adam Uhlman with Cleveland Research.

我們的下一個問題是克利夫蘭研究中心的 Adam Uhlman。

Congrats on the quarter.

恭喜本季。

Ryan, I was wondering if you could provide us a little bit more color on the guidance for the year in terms of how you see that cadence playing out maybe first half to second half in terms of sales and margin?

瑞安（Ryan），我想知道您是否能為我們提供有關今年指導的更多信息，以及您如何看待上半年到下半年銷售和利潤率方面的節奏？

Any important moving pieces that we should keep in mind?

我們應該牢記哪些重要的動人之處？

And then can you confirm if there's any material restructuring charges left in the guidance for this year?

那麼您能否確認今年的指引中是否還剩下任何重大重組費用？

Adam, It's Josh.

亞當，我是喬許。

I'll start.

我開始吧。

I mean I think as you think about kind of cadence of the year, I don't think we expect to see much abnormal from a seasonality perspective.

我的意思是，我認為當你考慮今年的節奏時，我認為從季節性角度來看我們不會看到太多異常情況。

So I think we'd expect both divisions kind of play out relatively normally.

所以我認為我們預計兩個部門的表現都會相對正常。

No -- nothing major kind of -- that would disrupt that.

不——沒有什麼重大的事情——會破壞這一點。

I think as it relates to onetime charges, those sorts of things, the employee separation actions, we don't have -- expect anything in '21 in the guide.

我認為，由於它與一次性指控、此類事情、員工離職行動有關，所以我們沒有 - 期望指南中的 21 中會有任何內容。

We've got that all in 2020.

2020 年我們已經實現了這一切。

To the extent we continue to work on portfolio optimization, those sorts of things, we could see charges there.

只要我們繼續致力於投資組合優化等工作，我們就可以看到收費。

But as we would execute on those, we will provide updates then.

但當我們執行這些操作時，我們將提供更新。

Yes.

是的。

As Josh said, nothing unique in next year's cadence.

正如喬許所說，明年的節奏沒有什麼獨特之處。

And as -- we don't have forecasted charges in the guide for next year.

我們在指南中沒有預測明年的費用。

We are still assessing kind of operations and footprint globally.

我們仍在評估全球的營運類型和足跡。

As we make those decisions, we'll obviously identify any costs associated with those during our quarterly calls.

當我們做出這些決定時，我們顯然會在季度電話會議中確定與這些決定相關的任何成本。

Thanks, Adam.

謝謝，亞當。

Mig Dobre with Baird.

米格·多布雷和貝爾德。

I wanted to go back to Construction & Forestry, the margin discussion there and recognizing that you had a lot of sort of discrete costs that's impacting you in fiscal '20 that now are clearly going away, it seems, if I'm doing the math right here, that the incremental margin that you're guiding to is somewhere in the low 20s -- low to mid-20s here.

我想回到建築和林業，在那裡進行利潤率討論，並認識到在 20 財年有很多離散成本對您產生影響，如果我做數學計算，這些成本現在顯然已經消失了就在這裡，您指導的增量利潤在20 多歲左右——這裡是20 多歲左右。

So I guess my question is this.

所以我想我的問題是這樣的。

First, where are we in terms of building or roadbuilding's margin?

首先，就建築或道路建設的利潤而言，我們處於什麼位置？

And is the path to 13%, 14% operating margin for that business still there?

該業務達到 13%、14% 營業利潤率的途徑是否仍存在？

And how do you see that?

你怎麼看？

And sort of what's been embedded here in terms of incremental margin longer term?

就長期增量利潤而言，這裡嵌入了什麼？

Yes.

是的。

I think when you -- for incrementals on the business in '21, we're in that range of 20% to 25%, which is traditionally where we'd expect to be.

我認為，對於 21 年業務的增量，我們處於 20% 到 25% 的範圍內，這也是我們傳統上預期的水平。

As you think about roadbuilding, we had a really, really strong quarter in roadbuilding in 4Q.

當你想到道路建設時，我們在第四季度的道路建設方面經歷了非常非常強勁的季度。

And as we look forward, we think that continues to improve.

展望未來，我們認為這種情況會持續改善。

Even ex items, where we were this year, we expect next year with top line moving up, call it, roughly 10%.

即使是剔除項目，我們今年的情況，我們預計明年的收入會上升，稱之為大約 10%。

We think that margin steps up again.

我們認為利潤率再次上升。

So I think we feel really good about the performance there.

所以我認為我們對那裡的表現感覺非常好。

And maybe just to reiterate a comment I made earlier, as we think about the 15% and how do we get there, we think the roadbuilding piece is a substantial contributor to that margin story as we go forward.

也許只是重申我之前發表的評論，當我們思考 15% 以及我們如何實現這一目標時，我們認為道路建設部分是我們前進過程中利潤率故事的重要貢獻者。

Thanks, Mig.

謝謝，米格。

Courtney Yakavonis with Morgan Stanley.

摩根士丹利的考特尼·亞卡沃尼斯。

Just wondering, maybe following on the roadbuilding discussion.

只是想知道，也許可以關注道路建設的討論。

I think on C&F, you gave us an outlook for North America construction and compact and forestry.

我認為在 C&F 上，您向我們展示了北美建築、緊湊型和林業的前景。

But can you maybe just share with us what your thoughts on the outlook for roadbuilding was?

但您能否與我們分享您對道路建設前景的看法？

And was there substantial underproduction?

生產是否嚴重不足？

How did those inventory levels kind of finished this year and what we should be thinking for next year and also as it relates to North America versus China?

今年的庫存水準如何？

Yes.

是的。

So we expect -- it's a little bit hard on the industry, so we tend to talk about roadbuilding more just from what we expect from our business there.

所以我們預計——這對這個行業來說有點困難，所以我們傾向於更多地從我們對那裡的業務的期望來談論道路建設。

And from a -- we think that's up about 10% next year after being down about 8% in 2020, so seeing some nice recovery there in that business.

我們認為，在 2020 年下降約 8% 後，明年將成長約 10%，因此該業務出現了一些良好的復甦。

Inventory-wise, I think we feel like we're in good shape, I think, over the course of '19 and a little bit of '20.

就庫存而言，我認為在 19 年和 20 年的一段時間裡，我們感覺自己處於良好狀態。

We took some more targeted actions on some of the different brands to adjust inventory as we integrated order fulfillment philosophies.

在整合訂單履行理念的同時，我們對一些不同品牌採取了一些更有針對性的行動來調整庫存。

But now I feel like -- we feel like, going into '21, we're in good shape in -- across those brands.

但現在我覺得——我們覺得，進入 21 年，我們在這些品牌上都處於良好的狀態。

Thanks, Courtney.

謝謝，考特尼。

Our next question is from Ross Gilardi with Bank of America.

我們的下一個問題來自美國銀行的羅斯吉拉迪。

Can you clarify that the 90% of mid-cycle for large ag is projected 2021 where you'll finish?

您能否澄清一下，大型農業公司 90% 的中期週期預計將在 2021 年完成？

Or was that actual 2020?

或者那是真實的 2020 年嗎？

And then historically, how far above are you mid-cycle at the peak for ag and turf?

然後從歷史上看，農業和草皮的高峰週期中期有多遠？

I mean some of the concern out there seems to be that '21 is somehow peak in ag and turf, which seems very hard to contemplate when revenue growth hasn't even turned positive yet, and you only have '21 ag and turf up 10% to 15%.

我的意思是，人們擔心的一些問題似乎是“21 年”在農業和草坪方面達到了峰值，當收入增長尚未轉為正數時，這似乎很難考慮，而且“21 年農業”和草坪只增長了10 % 至 15%。

Yes.

是的。

So the 90% is our forecast as we stand now for 2021.

因此，90% 是我們對 2021 年的預測。

So we think we've moved from basically, call it, 80% to 90% as we look forward.

因此，我們認為，正如我們所期望的那樣，我們已經從基本的 80% 上升到了 90%。

Now I mean, importantly, we've really seen kind of activity turn in the last 4 to 6 weeks.

現在我的意思是，重要的是，我們在過去 4 到 6 週內確實看到了一些活動的轉變。

So obviously, we've had early order programs going.

顯然，我們已經開始了早期訂單計劃。

But if you think about kind of underlying fundamental for farmers, things have improved from a commodity price perspective, lower stock levels.

但如果你考慮農民的基本面，從商品價格的角度來看，情況已經有所改善，庫存水準較低。

That's all really happened very, very recently.

這一切都是最近才發生的。

So I think I wouldn't overly interpret what's happened in 4 weeks, and that's everything that's possible there.

所以我認為我不會過度解釋 4 週內發生的事情，這就是那裡可能發生的一切。

So we're still managing it, working through with our dealers and customers, where we're at.

因此，我們仍在管理它，與我們目前所處的經銷商和客戶合作。

We feel like we're pretty well positioned, having managed new inventories tightly.

我們覺得我們已經處於有利位置，嚴格管理了新庫存。

Maybe even more importantly, used is in really good shape.

也許更重要的是，二手的狀態非常好。

Used inventory levels are down in places we haven't been since, call it, before 2014.

二手庫存水準出現了自 2014 年以來我們從未出現過的下降。

Used prices on the large ag side are seeing upward pressure.

大型農業方面的二手價格面臨上漲壓力。

So I think the backdrop and all of those things that we've thought would drive replacement demand and support replacement that have been stalled over the last year or 2, we've seen some of those things turn and be more favorable for farmers.

因此，我認為背景和所有我們認為將推動替代需求並支持過去一兩年陷入停滯的替代的因素，我們已經看到其中一些因素發生了轉變，並且對農民更加有利。

Thanks, Ross.

謝謝，羅斯。

Josh, on that, wouldn't your normal peak be 20% to 25% above mid-cycle for ag and turf?

喬什，就此而言，對於農業和草皮來說，您的正常峰值不會比周期中期高 20% 到 25% 嗎？

I mean if that's the case, historically, the trough to peak move would be something like a 30%-type number, not a 10% to 15% number.

我的意思是，如果是這樣的話，從歷史上看，從低谷到高峰的波動將是一個類似 30% 的數字，而不是 10% 到 15% 的數字。

That's what I'm just -- was trying to clarify in my question.

這就是我試圖在我的問題中澄清的內容。

Yes.

是的。

Sorry, I forgot that part of your question.

抱歉，我忘了你問題的那一部分。

Yes.

是的。

We would consider 120%, 20% above as peak, and that's as we plan.

我們會認為 120%、以上 20% 為峰值，這就是我們的計劃。

And certainly, if you go back to 2013, large ag in North America was 130%.

當然，如果你回到 2013 年，北美的大型農業是 130%。

So that was -- so we've been much higher and higher than even 120%, but that's the way we plan.

所以我們已經遠高於 120%，但這就是我們的計劃。

So thanks, Ross.

謝謝，羅斯。

Our next question is from Seth Weber, RBC Capital Markets.

我們的下一個問題來自加拿大皇家銀行資本市場部的 Seth Weber。

Just a question on your -- the South American industry ag outlook, up 5%, seems kind of conservative.

只是問一個問題——南美洲工業農業前景成長 5%，似乎有點保守。

It sounds like your messaging that your order book is up materially here at the end of the year.

聽起來你的消息是你的訂單在今年年底大幅增加。

So can you just frame that?

那你能把它框起來嗎？

Are you expecting something to really sort of drop off in the back half of the year in South America?

您是否預計南美洲今年下半年會出現一些真正的下降？

Is it just some uncertainty around financing programs?

這只是融資計劃的一些不確定性嗎？

Or any color you could talk to as to the 5% growth for South America.

或任何你可以談論南美洲 5% 增長的顏色。

Yes.

是的。

So I mean, up 5% for all South America.

所以我的意思是，整個南美洲成長了 5%。

I mean I think your question, maybe a little more targeted on Brazil specifically.

我的意思是，我認為你的問題可能更針對巴西。

Fundamentals have been really strong.

基本面真的很強。

We saw fourth quarter demand was -- from a retail perspective was strong and strong enough that you actually saw the year swing from kind of a negative industry to positive.

我們看到，從零售角度來看，第四季度的需求非常強勁，而且足夠強勁，以至於您實際上看到了這一年從行業的負面影響轉向正面影響。

So that's moved quickly.

所以進展很快。

Brent mentioned our order books were ordered out there through March.

布倫特提到我們的訂單簿是在三月訂購的。

One thing that does -- when you think about the comparison then, the strong fourth quarter is now in our comp.

有一件事確實如此——當你考慮當時的比較時，強勁的第四季現在已經出現在我們的比較中。

So we'll anniversary that strong industry in '21.

因此，我們將在 21 年慶祝這個強大的行業週年紀念。

So I think that's part of it.

所以我認為這是其中的一部分。

But I think, overall, we're seeing the dynamics there have been favorable and maybe a little bit of caution as it relates to China buying more grains from the U.S. and what exactly does that mean for them.

但我認為，總體而言，我們看到那裡的動態是有利的，也許有點謹慎，因為這與中國從美國購買更多穀物有關，這對他們到底意味著什麼。

But overall, I think very, very positive outlook on Brazil.

但總的來說，我認為巴西的前景非常非常樂觀。

Thanks, Seth.

謝謝，塞思。

Well, with that, I think we're at the top of the hour, so we'll wrap it up but appreciate all the interest.

好吧，我想我們已經到了最重要的時刻，所以我們將結束它，但感謝大家的興趣。

I hope everyone has a good Thanksgiving, and we'll talk soon.

我希望每個人都有一個愉快的感恩節，我們很快就會討論。

Thank you.

謝謝。

And thank you.

謝謝你。

This does conclude today's conference call.

今天的電話會議到此結束。

You may disconnect your lines, and thank you for your participation.

您可以斷開線路，感謝您的參與。