強鹿 (DE) 2002 Q3 法說會逐字稿

Good morning, and welcome to the Deere&Company Earnings Conference.

早上好，歡迎參加迪爾公司收益大會。

All lines will be in a listen-only mode until the question and answer session of the conference.

在會議問答環節之前，所有線路都將處於只聽模式。

Today's call is being recorded.

今天的通話正在錄音。

If you have any objections please disconnect at this time.

如果您有任何異議，請此時斷開連接。

I will turn the call over to Marie Ziegler, Vice President, Investor Relations.

我會將電話轉給投資人關係副總裁 Marie Ziegler。

Thank you, ma'am, you may begun.

謝謝您，女士，您可以開始了。

Good morning.

早安.

Tony Hugal and Greg Derrick join me today.

東尼休格爾和格雷格德里克今天加入我。

This call is being broadcast live on the internet and recorded for future transmissions and use by Deere, CCBN and third parties.

此次通話正在網路上進行現場直播，並進行錄音，以供迪爾、CCBN 和第三方將來傳輸和使用。

Participants in the call, including the Q&A section, agree that their likeness and remarks in all medium may be stored and used as part of the earnings call.

電話會議（包括問答部分）的參與者同意，他們在所有媒體上的肖像和言論可以被儲存並用作財報電話會議的一部分。

Comments made during this conference call that state management expects, our outlook, we project, or otherwise state the company's predictions for the future are forward-looking statements subject to important risks and uncertainties.

在本次電話會議上發表的有關管理層預期、我們的前景、我們的預測或以其他方式陳述公司對未來的預測的評論均為前瞻性陳述，存在重大風險和不確定性。

Actual results might differ materially from those projected in the forward-looking statements.

實際結果可能與前瞻性陳述中的預測有重大差異。

Additional information concerning factors that could cause actual results to differ materially is contained in the company's SEC filings including the most recent form 10Q and in the press release being filed today on form 8 K.

有關可能導致實際結果出現重大差異的因素的更多資​​訊包含在該公司向 SEC 提交的文件中，包括最新的 10Q 表格和今天提交的 8 K 表格新聞稿。

We have delivered another significant improvement in profit this quarter.

本季我們的利潤再次顯著改善。

As in the second quarter, you see the early results from our drive to improve the returns that we are generating over a business cycle.

與第二季一樣，您可以看到我們努力提高在一個商業週期中產生的回報的早期成果。

Specifically, we had strong sales in European Ag and improvements in commercial and consumer equipment sales.

具體來說，我們在歐洲農業領域的銷售強勁，商業和消費設備銷售有所改善。

Both were driven by the new product introductions of last year.

兩者都是受到去年新產品推出的推動。

We had better price realization in Ag, and in CNCE.

我們在 Ag 和 CNCE 中實現了更好的價格。

We had reductions in research and development, and selling and administrative expense, down 26 million in the quarter.

本季我們削減了研發、銷售和管理費用，減少了 2,600 萬美元。

I think our financial performance in the quarter is all the more impressive given the $24 million net in pre-tax charges associated with our business improvement initiative and this would be primarily related to the closing of the Williamsburg utility vehicle factory and the $33 million pre tax in charges related to future financial obligations on Nortrack.

我認為，考慮到與我們的業務改進計劃相關的2400 萬美元的稅前淨費用，我們本季度的財務業績更加令人印象深刻，這主要與關閉威廉斯堡多功能車工廠和3300 萬美元的稅前費用有關。與 Nortrack 未來財務義務相關的費用。

In addition this quarter we continue our focus on asset management with trade receivables and inventories down 568 million versus a year ago.

此外，本季我們繼續專注於資產管理，應收帳款和庫存比去年同期減少了 5.68 億。

Now, let's turn to the individual division results.

現在我們來看看個人分組的結果。

We'll start with worldwide AG.

我們將從全球 AG 開始。

Here operating profit was 205 million compared to 115 million a year ago.

營業利潤為 2.05 億美元，而一年前為 1.15 億美元。

The number one factor is, of course, the huge increase in overseas sales which has been driven by our European AG division.

第一個因素當然是我們歐洲AG部門推動的海外銷售額的大幅成長。

Sales in the quarter overseas rose 41% as reported and at constant exchange rates up 33%.

據報道，本季海外銷售額成長 41%，以固定匯率計算成長 33%。

Again, spurred on by the new product introductions.

再次受到新產品推出的刺激。

Additionally, worldwide AG benefited from improved price realization.

此外，全球股份公司也受惠於價格實現的提高。

I should point out both in North America and overseas.

我應該指出北美和海外​​。

Price realization contributed be three points of margin this quarter.

本季的價格實現貢獻了三個百分點的利潤率。

We had these very good operating results despite $24 million of compensation paid to credit operations on dealer receivables and higher pension expense.

儘管向經銷商應收帳款信貸業務支付了 2,400 萬美元的補償以及更高的退休金費用，但我們仍取得了非常好的經營業績。

Looking out to our outlook in retail activity, it's certainly been dry through most of the crop producing areas in the United States and Canada.

展望零售活動的前景，美國和加拿大大部分的農作物產區肯定都處於乾旱狀態。

Crop conditions are running behind a year ago and just yesterday, the USDA revised its expectations for corn yields this year in the United States down to 125.2 bushels per acre compared to brief use estimate of 135.8.

作物長勢落後於一年前，就在昨天，美國農業部將美國今年玉米單產預期下調至每英畝 125.2 蒲式耳，而簡要使用預測為每英畝 135.8 蒲式耳。

The near term consequence of both crop conditions and now prospective reduced yields has been lower than expected farm equipment sales in the last few months, even against easier comparisons and July was no exception.

過去幾個月，作物狀況和預期產量下降的近期後果都低於預期的農業設備銷售，即使是與更簡單的比較相比，七月也不例外。

Yesterday the Association of Equipment Manufacturers released July retail activity for the United States and Canada.

昨天，設備製造商協會發布了美國和加拿大 7 月的零售活動。

In units, sales of utility tractors, which are 40 to 100 horse power were up 8% for the industry, Deere was down a low double digit.

按單位計算，該行業 40 至 100 馬力的通用拖拉機的銷量增長了 8%，而迪爾則出現了低兩位數的下滑。

Row crop tractors which are 100 horse power and over two wheel drive tractors, industry sales were down 13%, Deere was down a bit more than the industry.

中耕作物拖拉機（100匹馬力以上兩輪驅動拖拉機）產業銷量下降13%，迪爾降幅略高於業界。

For four-wheel drive tractors industry sales were down 44%, Deere was down a single digit.

四輪驅動拖拉機行業銷量下降了 44%，迪爾則下降了個位數。

On combine sales the industry was down 40% and Deere was down a similar amount.

就聯合銷售而言，該行業下降了 40%，迪爾也下降了類似的幅度。

As the result of this activity, we are revising our 2002 industry outlook.

這項活動的結果，我們正在修訂 2002 年產業展望。

It had previously been flat.

此前它一直是平坦的。

Now, for 2002, we estimate the industry will be flat to down 5%.

現在，我們估計 2002 年該行業將持平或下降 5%。

While in the near term, crop conditions yields are having a negative effect, they could have a positive impact as we leak beyond our fiscal year.

雖然在短期內，作物狀況對產量產生負面影響，但隨著我們的財年洩漏，它們可能會產生正面影響。

Yesterday the USDA also cut productions for bean and wheat, in addition to estimates for corn.

昨天，除了玉米產量預估外，美國農業部還削減了豆類和小麥產量。

As a result corn, bean and wheat stocks are below a year ago levels.

因此，玉米、豆類和小麥庫存低於一年前的水平。

Perhaps the most dramatic declines were in corn were projected ending stocks are less than half of the previous year at 767 million bushels, they are now below a billion for the first time since 1996.

也許降幅最大的是玉米，預計期末庫存將不到去年的一半，為 7.67 億蒲式耳，目前庫存量自 1996 年以來首次低於 10 億蒲式耳。

The result of all this is higher estimated commodity prices for this crop year, in other words the crops that is being grown now, and will be marketed over the next twelve months.

所有這一切的結果是本作物年度的商品預估價格上漲，換句話說，目前正在種植的作物價格將在未來十二個月內上市。

Our estimates have corn now averaging $2.53 a bushel compared to $2.09 in our previous outlook.

我們預計目前玉米平均價格為每蒲式耳 2.53 美元，而我們先前的預期為每蒲式耳 2.09 美元。

Beans at 5.67 versus a previous outlook of $4.36 and wheat, we now expect to run about $3.50 compared to 2.96 in our previous estimate.

豆類價格為 5.67 美元，先前的預期為 4.36 美元；小麥價格目前預計為 3.50 美元左右，而先前的預期為 2.96 美元。

With these higher prices, we know have a major shift in the composition of expected farm cash receipts.

隨著價格的上漲，我們知道預期農場現金收入的組成將會發生重大變化。

Higher receipts from crop sales, but then lower government payments.

農作物銷售收入增加，但政府付款減少。

Government payments in 2001 represented 36% of net farm cash income.

2001 年政府支付佔農場現金淨收入的 36%。

We now project that in 2002, they will represent 29%.

我們現在預計到 2002 年，他們將佔 29%。

And in 2003, 23%.

2003 年為 23%。

In addition to this, we have the certainty of a solid level of government support because of the new farm bill.

除此之外，由於新的農業法案，我們確信政府會提供堅實的支持。

This certainty allows our customers to do a better job of advanced planning.

這種確定性使我們的客戶能夠更好地進行預先規劃。

Both of these factors positively influence farm equipment fundamentals.

這兩個因素都對農用設備的基本面有正面影響。

And we think, especially when combined with the accelerated depreciation available under the Job Creation and Worker Assistant Act sets up an interesting potential for 2003.

我們認為，特別是與《創造就業和工人助理法案》規定的加速折舊相結合，將為 2003 年帶來令人感興趣的潛力。

Let's move on to Europe.

讓我們繼續前往歐洲。

Here we see a continuation of the trend of strong retail activity with our tractor retail sales in July up strong double digits and combines up triple double digits, although you are dealing with a smaller numerical bases than for tractors.

在這裡，我們看到強勁零售活動趨勢的延續，7 月拖拉機零售額強勁增長兩位數，並達到三位數，儘管您面對的數位基數比拖拉機要小。

It's still very impressive.

仍然令人印象深刻。

Our results, as we talked about earlier are driven by the 63 new products introduced this year.

正如我們之前談到的，我們的業績是由今年推出的 63 種新產品所推動的。

Europe is an area of the world where we think we have meaningful growth opportunity and we are delighted and very encouraged by the results in the initial year of new products.

我們認為歐洲是世界上擁有有意義的成長機會的地區，我們對新產品第一年的成果感到高興和深受鼓舞。

We are, as a result, revising our industry outlook.

因此，我們正在修改我們的行業前景。

Previously the outlook was flat to up slightly.

此前，前景持平或略有上升。

We now expect 2002 industry sales could be up 5%.

我們現在預計 2002 年行業銷售額可能會成長 5%。

In addition to our own strong retail activity influencing numbers, we see strong used equipment export markets and a high level of government payments principally in the UK that relates to last year's outbreak of foot and mouth disease.

除了我們自己強勁的零售活動影響數字之外，我們還看到強勁的二手設備出口市場以及主要在英國的高額政府付款，這與去年的口蹄疫爆發有關。

Those factors are also supporting industry sales.

這些因素也支撐了行業銷售。

Turning now to South America.

現在轉向南美洲。

Our outlook there remains flat.

我們的前景仍然平淡。

We are paying careful attention to events in Brazil, but the farm segment is healthy in Brazil and stands to remain so with farmers producing U.S. dollar based hard currency crops.

我們正在密切關注巴西發生的事件，但巴西的農業部門健康發展，並且隨著農民生產以美元為基礎的硬通貨作物，這種狀況將保持下去。

Moving on to commercial and consumer.

轉向商業和消費者。

Here sales were 913 million in the quarter versus 822 million a year ago.

該季度的銷售額為 9.13 億美元，而去年同期為 8.22 億美元。

Acquisitions and divestitures in the quarter are a wash.

本季的收購和剝離是一次徹底的失敗。

So the increment represents a real increase in shipments.

因此，增量代表了出貨量的實際成長。

This increase in volume is the primary factor behind the improved operating profit which is 61 million compared to 16 million a year ago.

銷量的成長是營業利潤提高的主要因素，營業利潤從一年前的 1,600 萬美元增加到了 6,100 萬美元。

Recall with the higher volumes we are shifting production into the second and third quarters to more closely reflect seasonal demands.

回想一下，隨著產量的增加，我們將生產轉移到第二和第三季度，以更密切地反映季節性需求。

Also benefitting the quarter was the absence of Home Light.

Home Light 的缺席也使本季受益。

Last year in the third quarter Home Light had an operating loss of $18 million.

去年第三季 Home Light 的營運虧損為 1,800 萬美元。

Price realization in the quarter was positive.

本季的價格實現是積極的。

It was about 1.5 points of margin.

利潤率約 1.5 個百分點。

This performance is very strong when you consider the fact that this division had $24 million in net restructuring charges and again this relates to the closing of the Williamsburg utility vehicle factory and the relocation of production to sister factories.

考慮到該部門淨重組費用為 2,400 萬美元，而且這又與關閉威廉斯堡多用途車工廠以及將生產轉移到姊妹工廠有關，這一業績表現非常強勁。

Commercial and consumer also had compensation paid to credit in the quarter of 13 million.

商業和消費者也獲得了 1300 萬美元的信貸補償。

Now, retail activity in the month of July was down double digits.

現在，七月的零售活動下降了兩位數。

But if you'll recall in the month of may, it had been up slightly and in the month of June it had been down slightly.

但如果你還記得，在 5 月份，它略有上升，而在 6 月份，它又略有下降。

And so overall for the quarter retail activity was better than expected.

因此，本季零售活動整體優於預期。

It's dry in many markets, particularly in the southeast which is a major market for our division.

許多市場都處於乾旱狀態，特別是東南部，這是我們部門的主要市場。

But the dryness hasn't had the impact we feared.

但乾燥並沒有產生我們擔心的影響。

We think this is partially due to the new product introductions of last year.

我們認為這部分歸因於去年推出的新產品。

We have seen strength in some commercial products, particularly our new Mid Mount Z Track and seen strength in the market segment called Lightning which would be the -- which is the homeowner product targeted at both -- at an entry level and it's available both through our dealer and mass channels.

我們已經看到了一些商業產品的優勢，特別是我們新的Mid Mount Z Track，並看到了稱為Lightning 的細分市場的優勢，這將是入門級的——這是針對這兩種產品的房主產品，並且可以透過以下方式獲得：我們的經銷商和大眾通路。

This Lightning product has been very exciting for us because it's going to be the foundation of the new John Deere 100 series that will be offered next year in both the dealer and mass channel.

這款 Lightning 產品對我們來說非常令人興奮，因為它將成為明年在經銷商和大眾通路提供的新型約翰迪爾 100 系列的基礎。

I know you are all aware that our mass channel strategy has been clouded in the past by Home Light's performance in hand-held products.

我知道你們都知道，我們的大眾通路策略過去因 Home Light 在手持產品中的表現而蒙上陰影。

Our riding lawn equipment experience has been pretty good.

我們的騎行草坪設備體驗非常好。

With the market's reception of the new Lightning product, the fact it will be available under the John Deere brand next year, we really think we will have a better business in riding lawn equipment going forward.

隨著市場對新閃電產品的接受，明年它將以約翰迪爾品牌上市，我們真的認為我們在騎行草坪設備方面的業務將會更好。

As a result of the better than expected third quarter retail activity, we are increasing our estimated shipments acquisitions and divestitures to flat to up 5% .

由於第三季零售活動優於預期，我們將收購和剝離的預計出貨量提高至持平至 5%。

Our previous estimate was a decrease of 5 to 10%.

我們之前的估計是下降 5% 到 10%。

Although we are raising estimated shipments we are still planning to lower dealer and company owned inventories.

儘管我們提高了預計出貨量，但我們仍計劃降低經銷商和公司擁有的庫存。

For those of you who are working on a model for the full year, John Deere Landscapes now is expected to account for an incremental $275 million of sales and the divestiture of Home Light is a $215 million impact on the year-over-year comparison.

對於那些正在研究全年模型的人來說，約翰迪爾景觀現在預計將帶來 2.75 億美元的增量銷售額，而 Home Light 的剝離將帶來 2.15 億美元的同比影響。

Moving on now to construction and forestry equipment.

現在轉向建築和林業設備。

There, we have an operating loss of 10 million versus profit of 11 million a year ago.

在那裡，我們的營業虧損為 1000 萬美元，而一年前為利潤 1100 萬美元。

The first impact comes from sales.

第一個影響來自於銷售。

Recall that starting with this quarter, we are consolidating results of Hitachi sales into our operation as we have consolidated Hitachi and Deere marketing operations.

回想一下，從本季開始，我們將日立的銷售業績合併到我們的營運中，因為我們整合了日立和迪爾的行銷業務。

This accounts for $32 million incrementally year-over-year.

這比去年同期增加了 3,200 萬美元。

If you take that out, sales on a comparable basis are down slightly in the quarter.

如果剔除這一點，本季的可比銷售額略有下降。

But the biggest factor is this item that we referred to in the press release as cost related to the Nortracks investment.

但最大的因素是我們在新聞稿中提到的與 Nortracks 投資相關的成本項目。

It's $33 million pre tax in the quarter.

該季度稅前收入為 3300 萬美元。

This is a provision related to our ownership position in Nortrack.

這是一項與我們在 Nortrack 的所有權地位相關的條款。

I want to emphasize Nortracks has been profitable in each of the last 7 months.

我想強調的是，Nortracks 在過去 7 個月中每年都獲利。

However, Nortrack's financial performance since acquisition has not been as strong as anticipated and, of course, you need look no further than the market to help understand why.

然而，自收購以來，Nortrack 的財務表現並不像預期的那麼強勁，當然，您只需看看市場就可以了解其中的原因。

Deere has future financial obligations relating to Nortrack that provide certain investors a guaranteed return.

Deere 對 Nortrack 負有未來的財務義務，為某些投資者提供保證的回報。

We are now valuing this obligation conservatively to the earliest possible exercise date.

我們現在保守地評估這項義務的最早可能行使日期。

Going forward, we expect the quarterly run rate will be in the range of 10 to $15 million pre tax and this will last through 2003.

展望未來，我們預計季度運行率將在稅前 1,000 至 1,500 萬美元之間，並且這種情況將持續到 2003 年。

Also affecting performance for the construction and forestry division in the quarter were discounts which cost 1.5 points of margin and compensation paid to credit which was $5 million.

影響本季建築和林務部門業績的還有折扣，導致利潤損失 1.5 個百分點，以及支付信貸補償 500 萬美元。

You know, without the Nortrack's charge the construction and forestry division would have had $12 million in additional operating profit over 2001, despite deteriorated market conditions.

您知道，如果沒有 Nortrack 的收費，儘管市場狀況惡化，建築和林業部門在 2001 年仍將獲得 1,200 萬美元的額外營業利潤。

In fact, their year-to-date operating loss of $97 million includes $53 million for Nortrack's guaranteed return.

事實上，他們年初至今的 9,700 萬美元營運虧損包括 Nortrack 的 5,300 萬美元保證回報。

It includes skid steers the combination of the cost of closing the factory in Knoxville, plus skid steer's operating loss this year-to-date has cost the division $38 million.

其中包括滑移裝載機，關閉諾克斯維爾工廠的成本加上滑移裝載機今年迄今的營運虧損，已使該部門損失了 3,800 萬美元。

And compensation paid to credit which is going to be normal going forward, it's the first year, that's costing them an additional 13 million.

支付信貸的補償在未來將是正常的，這是第一年，這將額外花費他們 1300 萬。

Without these, our construction and forestry equipment division would slow show a slight operating profit year-to-date in a very weak market.

如果沒有這些，我們的建築和林業設備部門將在非常疲軟的市場中緩慢地顯示今年迄今為止的輕微營業利潤。

I think strong testimony to their aggressive efforts to reduce expenses and control costs.

我認為這有力地證明了他們為減少開支和控製成本所做的積極努力。

Retail activity in the month of July continued to trend of being down double digits both in a -- on a first in the dirt and settlements basis.

7 月的零售活動繼續呈現兩位數下降的趨勢——首先是在泥土和定居點的基礎上。

As a result, our outlook for 2002 industry sales in North America remains down 10 to 15%.

因此，我們對 2002 年北美產業銷售額的預期仍下降 10% 至 15%。

So, so far this outlook has proven to be realistic.

因此，到目前為止，這一前景已被證明是現實的。

For those of you looking to do a full year model the consolidation of Hitachi marketing provides an incremental $90 million in net sales in the quarter -- excuse me for the full year.

對於那些希望建立全年模型的人來說，日立行銷的整合使該季度的淨銷售額增加了 9000 萬美元——請原諒我說的是全年。

Turning now to credit.

現在轉向信用。

Net income in the third quarter was $57 million.

第三季淨利為5700萬美元。

Again that's net income, compared to 41 million in the third quarter of last year.

這還是淨利潤，而去年第三季的淨利潤為 4,100 萬。

The biggest item is the financing of Deere Wholesale which provides 22 million of after tax additional dollars.

最大的項目是迪爾批發公司的融資，提供了2,200萬美元的稅後額外資金。

One other comment.

另一則評論。

The press release references a higher provision for bad debts.

新聞稿提到了更高的壞帳撥備。

We added reserves of $12 million on an after tax basis, the vast majority of this relates to the bankruptcy of a large John Deere dealer in Canada.

我們在稅後基礎上增加了 1200 萬美元的準備金，其中絕大多數與加拿大一家大型約翰迪爾經銷商的破產有關。

This is an isolated case as the Deere dealer network continues to be financially strong.

這是一個孤立的案例，因為迪爾經銷商網路的財務狀況仍然強勁。

You know, we have had a couple of unusual and large ticket write-offs this year.

你知道，今年我們發生了幾起不尋常的大罰單註銷事件。

Past dues in the core portfolio without these unusual situations are flat with a year ago and at a good level.

在沒有這些異常情況的情況下，核心投資組合的逾期款項與一年前持平，處於良好水平。

We even continue to see stabilization in the commercial segment of the market.

我們甚至繼續看到商業市場的穩定性。

You may recall that we were having some difficulty with forestry related notes last year.

您可能還記得去年我們在林業相關筆記方面遇到了一些困難。

Even in this segment we see some stabilization.

即使在這一領域，我們也看到了一些穩定性。

Our forecast for 2002, then, has slightly improved.

那麼，我們對 2002 年的預測略有改善。

We have increased guidance for the full year to 220 to 240 million versus our previous estimate of 210 to 230 million.

我們將全年指導人數上調至 2.2 億至 2.4 億，而先前的估計為 2.1 至 2.3 億。

We are seeing slightly better spreads on the portfolio than projected, and credit experience on the core portfolio has been somewhat better than expected.

我們看到投資組合的利差比預期略好，核心投資組合的信貸經驗也比預期好一些。

Let's move now to our usual array of housekeeping items.

現在讓我們來看看我們常用的家務用品。

First, in the quarter we had positive price realization for the company.

首先，在本季度，我們為公司實現了積極的價格實現。

As a whole we had two points of positive price realization.

總的來說，我們有兩個積極的價格實現點。

Higher pension and post employment benefits expense is something that we have talked about this year in the quarter.

更高的退休金和離職後福利費用是我們今年本季討論過的問題。

It was $25 million pre-tax primarily Ag.

稅前收入為 2500 萬美元，主要是農業。

Our estimate for the year is unchanged at 110 million pre-tax.

我們對今年的預測維持稅前 1.1 億美元不變。

The primary drivers, higher medical inflation, the lower discount rate and the stock market.

主要驅動因素是較高的醫療通膨、較低的折現率和股市。

The tax rate is unusual this quarter.

本季的稅率不同尋常。

It's very high.

這是非常高的。

And our year-to-date rate is about 54%.

我們今年迄今的比率約為 54%。

This is the result of low income in the equipment operation and a higher contribution of overseas income versus U.S. income.

這是設備營運收入低以及海外收入貢獻高於美國收入的結果。

And goodwill which is generally not tax ductible.

商譽通常不可免稅。

The composition of the other category of operating profit is technology with the loss of 8.8 million compared to a loss of 13.5 million in the third quarter of last year.

另一類營業利潤的構成是技術，虧損880萬美元，而去年第三季虧損1,350萬美元。

Healthcare is -- has operating profit of 8 million compared to 6 million a year earlier.

醫療保健業務的營業利潤為 800 萬歐元，而去年同期為 600 萬歐元。

Just want to comment now on the forecasted balance sheet.

現在只想對預測的資產負債表發表評論。

Asset management remains a key focus of the company.

資產管理仍然是公司的重點業務。

Our current forecast calls for 350 to a 400 million reduction in inventories and receivables at 31 October versus last year.

我們目前的預測是，截至 10 月 31 日，庫存和應收帳款將比去年減少 350 至 4 億美元。

At constant exchange rates.

以固定匯率計算。

I need to add that last qualifier because, as you know, the Euro has strengthened vis-a-vis the dollar.

我需要添加最後一個限定詞，因為如您所知，歐元兌美元已經走強。

Given the stronger Euro, the actual reduction may appear to be less than what we actually report for the year because right now our current forecast has the change relationship adding about $75 million to U.S. dollar value of ending overseas receivables and inventories.

鑑於歐元走強，實際減少量可能會低於我們今年實際報告的數字，因為目前我們的預測顯示，變化關係使期末海外應收帳款和庫存的美元價值增加了約 7500 萬美元。

We are on track for 350 to $400 million reduction at constant exchange rates.

以固定匯率計算，我們預計將減少 3.5 至 4 億美元。

Before we conclude I do want to comment about our inventories in North American Ag.

在我們結束之前，我確實想評論一下我們在北美農業的庫存。

In U.S. and Canada inventories of all four key categories which would be utility, row crop and four wheel drive tractors and combines, all four categories are below year ago levels and below the industry.

在美國和加拿大所有四個關鍵類別（公用事業、中耕作物和四輪驅動拖拉機和聯合收割機）的庫存中，所有四個類別均低於去年同期水平，也低於行業水平。

We ended July with row crop tractor inventories at 30% of trailing 12-month sales and combines at 21%.

截至 7 月，中耕作物拖拉機庫存佔過去 12 個月銷售額的 30%，聯合收割機庫存佔 21%。

As we approach the fall harvest season.

當我們接近秋收季節時。

Our fourth quarter guidance in the press release is about break-even in terms of net income.

我們在新聞稿中對第四季度淨利潤的指導是關於盈虧平衡的。

This implies a net loss in the equipment operations.

這意味著設備運作出現淨損失。

And this is partially due to our increased bill to demand which means stronger performance in the second and third quarters and weaker in the first and fourth.

這部分是由於我們的帳單需求增加，這意味著第二季和第三季的業績強勁，而第一季和第四季的業績疲軟。

Also, our outlook reflects a slightly weaker market in North American AG.

此外，我們的前景反映出北美股份公司市場略有疲軟。

Our fourth quarter now has more shutdowns on 8,000 and 9,000 tractor lines than was originally expected in our previous guidance.

目前，我們第四季有 8,000 和 9,000 條拖拉機生產線停產，數量超出了我們先前指引中的最初預期。

We now expect North American AG will be shutdown 19% of available days.

我們現在預計 North American AG 將關閉 19% 的可用天數。

This is an improvement from the first quarter of 2001 where we had shutdowns of 24% of available days.

這比 2001 年第一季有所改善，當時我們關閉了 24% 的可用天數。

It still represents a very low level of activity in the quarter.

這仍然表明本季度的活動水平非常低。

Our fourth quarter is a seasonably weak quarter to begun with.

我們的第四季一開始就是一個季節性疲軟的季度。

Don't forget, our break-even projection implies a $100 million improvement.

不要忘記，我們的收支平衡預測意味著 1 億美元的改進。

Really, for the year as a whole, we have demonstrated solid performance in difficult markets for all three equipment divisions.

事實上，從全年來看，我們的三個設備部門在困難的市場中都表現出了穩健的表現。

And our year-to-date results include 58 million in further restructuring costs associated with our drive to improve our business results.

我們今年迄今的業績包括與我們改善業務績效相關的進一步重組成本 5,800 萬美元。

We have met with great success in our new product strategy in Europe.

我們在歐洲的新產品策略取得了巨大成功。

We are seeing better pricing in Ag and commercial and consumer equipment, and we are still underproducing retail to lower working capital another $350- 400 million -- all in all, a pretty good year.

我們看到農業、商業和消費設備的定價有所改善，而且我們的零售生產仍然不足，營運資本又減少了 350-4 億美元——總而言之，這是一個相當不錯的一年。

With that, we are now ready for Q&A.

這樣，我們現在就可以進行問答了。

The operator which give us instruction on the polling procedure and, as always, to give everyone an opportunity to participate, we ask you limit yourself to one question with a related follow-up if needed.

營運商向我們提供有關投票程序的指導，並一如既往地為每個人提供參與的機會，我們要求您只回答一個問題，並在需要時提供相關的後續行動。

You are welcome to get back into the cue to ask questions as time permits and we certainly have plenty of time for Q&A today.

如果時間允許，歡迎您回到提示中提問，我們今天當然有充足的時間進行問答。

Laura?

勞拉？

Thank you.

謝謝。

At this time if you would like to ask a question press star followed by one on your touch tone phone.

此時，如果您想提出問題，請在按鍵式電話上按星號，然後再按一個。

You will be announced by your name prior on asking your question.

在提問之前，我們會告知您您的姓名。

To ask a question press star followed by one on your touch tone phone.

若要提出問題，請在按鍵式電話上按星號，然後再按一個。

Your first question comes from Steve Volkman.

你的第一個問題來自史蒂夫‧沃克曼。

Please state your company name.

請註明您的公司名稱。

Morgan Stanley.

摩根士丹利。

Hi, Steve.

嗨，史蒂夫。

How are you?

你好嗎？

Question on, I know you guys have your economists, I'm sure looking at the various changes we have seen in crop prices and outlooks and so forth.

問題是，我知道你們有經濟學家，我肯定會關注我們在農作物價格和前景等方面看到的各種變化。

I'm wondering if you have some kind of rule of thumb given what we see in terms of where crop prices are and the carryovers are and so forth.

我想知道，考慮到我們在農作物價格和結轉等方面所看到的情況，您是否有某種經驗法則。

What type of industry volumes do you think we might be able to get in 2003 with the improving fundamentals here?

您認為隨著基本面的改善，2003 年我們可能會獲得哪種類型的產業銷售？

That's a very interesting question.

這是一個非常有趣的問題。

It's one we don't have a definite rule of thumb because we look at a variety of factors.

我們沒有明確的經驗法則，因為我們會考慮多種因素。

Steve, it's early August we don't have our outlook formulated for 2003.

史蒂夫，現在是八月初，我們還沒有製定 2003 年的展望。

We are watching some interesting developments.

我們正在關註一些有趣的進展。

But, it's too early to give an industry projection.

但是，現在給出產業預測還為時過早。

All right.

好的。

I'll come closer then.

那我再靠近一點。

In terms of your outlook for '02 then, would you be willing to sort of break that down by tractor sizes and combines and so forth?

那麼，就您對 02 年的展望而言，您願意按拖拉機尺寸和聯合收割機等進行細分嗎？

Really, I have a dollar forecast.

真的，我有美元預測。

We expect that combines while be weaker as they have run weaker all year.

我們預計聯合收割機會會更弱，因為它們全年都在走弱。

We really -- the change in the forecast relates to principally to what's happened in tractors and that was obvious from the comment we are adding shutdowns in 8 and 9,000 series.

我們確實 - 預測的變化主要與拖拉機發生的情況有關，從我們在 8 和 9,000 系列中增加停機的評論中可以明顯看出這一點。

I don't have a definite industry number for you on the row crops and combines.

我沒有關於中耕作物和聯合收割機的確切行業數據。

Just looks like, I mean industry volumes in the big stuff has been running down 15 to 20% year-to-date.

看起來，我的意思是，今年迄今為止，大型產品的行業銷量已經下降了 15% 到 20%。

When you say kind of flat to down 5 it still looks a little optimistic, perhaps.

當你說持平到下降 5 時，也許看起來仍然有點樂觀。

I assume that's because you are including utilities which have been a little bit better.

我認為這是因為您包含了更好一點的實用程式。

We have seen in several of the implement categories as well.

我們也在幾個實施類別中看到過。

We have seen very good performance.

我們看到了非常好的表現。

Okay.

好的。

Are you expecting the final few months of the year to be any better than what we have seen in the past few months?

您預計今年的最後幾個月會比我們過去幾個月看到的情況更好嗎？

No.

不。

We expect things will continue to be sluggish.

我們預計情況將繼續低迷。

On the positive side if you can call it that we have some easier comparisons, even in the final three months of the year.

從積極的一面來看，如果你可以這麼說的話，我們有一些更容易的比較，即使是在今年的最後三個月。

We do not expect the market will strengthen significantly in this period of time at all.

我們預計這段時間內市場不會大幅走強。

Great.

偉大的。

Thanks a lot.

多謝。

Thank you.

謝謝。

Your next question comes from Joel [Oltez].

你的下一個問題來自喬爾[奧爾特斯]。

Please state your company name.

請註明您的公司名稱。

This is Mike, his associate from Lehman brothers.

這是麥克，他在雷曼兄弟的同事。

Hi, Mike.

嗨，麥克。

Great quarter.

很棒的季度。

We were wondering what's going on in Europe?

我們想知道歐洲發生了什麼事？

Whether you have more outlets building out there?

您是否正在興建更多門市？

Or are you gaining share?

或者你正在獲得份額嗎？

We saw 30% growth.

我們看到了 30% 的成長。

We just want to see if it's sustainable, or it will come ratchet back down more in line with the overall market there?

我們只是想看看它是否可持續，或者它會隨著整體市場的變化而回落嗎？

Um -- really, our growth is driven by our new product introductions of last year.

嗯——實際上，我們的成長是由去年推出的新產品所推動的。

We had significant introductions in both tractors and combines, and in some I implements.

我們對拖拉機和聯合收割機以及一些機具進行了重要介紹。

And the results have been very good and we are consistent with what we had certainly hoped.

結果非常好，我們與我們所希望的一致。

We would certainly see in the quarter they were a positive surprise for us.

我們肯定會在本季度看到它們對我們來說是一個積極的驚喜。

Right.

正確的。

Our dealer network is, you know, is basically in place and really the main change has been the wonderful new products that we have available for the market.

您知道，我們的經銷商網路已基本到位，真正的主要變化是我們向市場推出了精彩的新產品。

Okay.

好的。

Great.

偉大的。

And then I just one quick one, I guess.

然後我想，我只是快速地做一件事。

In terms of the construction business are there any end markets that look like they have bottomed, you could say?

您可以說，就建築業務而言，是否有任何終端市場看起來已經觸底？

Or look maybe a little more stronger than say the rental markets will probably remain weak and, you know, the home builds are probably plateaued out at this rate at near record levels?

或者看起來可能比說租賃市場可能會保持疲軟更強勁一些，而且你知道，房屋建設可能會以接近歷史最高水平的速度穩定下來？

We are trying to find something that may be on the upturn.

我們正在努力尋找可能正在好轉的東西。

Actually, just to comment on the rental.

其實只是想評論一下租金。

We initially had an outlook for rental that was down about 60% for the industry.

我們最初預計該行業的租金將下降約 60%。

That was our second quarter guidance.

這是我們第二季的指導。

Right.

正確的。

Year-to-date the numbers are running more like down 30%.

今年迄今為止，這一數字大約下降了 30%。

Now you are still off a very weak base from last year.

現在與去年相比，你的基礎仍然非常薄弱。

Right.

正確的。

So that market is down significantly, but not down as much as we expected.

因此，市場大幅下跌，但跌幅沒有我們預期的那麼大。

If you look in terms of what showing some signs of bottoming out, we are looking at the forestry markets with some interest.

如果你看一下顯示出一些觸底跡象的跡象，我們正在對林業市場感興趣。

I'm just trying to find some statistics here.

我只是想在這裡找到一些統計數據。

If you take a look at what's happening with projected pulp inventories, pulp prices, both giving early indications that there could be some positive results into our 2003 year.

如果你看一下預期的紙漿庫存和紙漿價格的變化，兩者都給出了早期跡象，表明 2003 年可能會出現一些積極的結果。

But it's still early.

但現在還早。

Okay.

好的。

Great.

偉大的。

Thanks a lot.

多謝。

Thank you.

謝謝。

Your next question comes from David Rossow.

你的下一個問題來自大衛·羅索。

Please state your company name.

請註明您的公司名稱。

Solomon, Smith Barney.

所羅門，美邦。

Hi, Marie.

嗨，瑪麗。

Hi, David.

嗨，大衛。

On the Waterloo production the 8-9000 series, the increased shutdowns for the fourth quarter, the total number of down 19%, I mean available shutdown date.

就滑鐵盧生產的8-9000系列而言，第四季停產數量有所增加，總數下降了19%，我指的是可用的停產日期。

That's the number I believe we were using already for the fourth quarter.

我相信這是我們第四季已經使用的數字。

There must be some mix.

一定有某種混合。

No.

不。

We were down about 18%, David.

大衛，我們下降了約 18%。

But the reason we mention this is the significance, really is the fact that the increment really was from the 8 and 9000 series.

但我們之所以提到這一點，是因為它的重要性，事實上，增量確實來自 8 和 9000 系列。

That's what I'm trying to square up.

這就是我正在努力解決的問題。

Production versus retail.

生產與零售。

You took down your retail a bit on the 8 to 9.

8 點到 9 點，您的零售量下降。

On the manufacturing, just to reiterate you are taking a little further shutdowns on the 8s and 9s than you thought?

在製造方面，我想重申一下，您對 8 號和 9 號設備的停工時間比您想像的要多一些？

That's correct.

這是正確的。

With that the new 7,000 series are being rolled out to the dealers this week or the next couple weeks.

新的 7,000 系列將於本週或未來幾週向經銷商推出。

The 7000s production, when does that begun to gain a little momentum over the course of the winter, taking -- not the lesson to learn but the way the 8, 9000s were produced later in the season to get ready for spring than you normally do with the new product.

7000 的生產什麼時候開始在冬季獲得一點動力，不是吸取教訓，而是在本季晚些時候生產 8、9000 的方式，為春季做好比平常更多的準備與新產品。

When do the new 7,000s start ramping up a bit?

新的7,000什麼時候開始增加一點？

They start this quarter.

他們從本季開始。

Will be in a ramp-up mode certainly into the winter.

進入冬季肯定會處於加速模式。

We expect to have a better availability this year than we did with the 8,000s, clearly.

顯然，我們預計今年的可用性會比 8,000 台更好。

Part of that is driven by the fact we didn't start production on those 8s until November, we simply weren't ready to.

部分原因是我們直到 11 月才開始生產 8 系列，我們根本還沒準備好。

That was according to our plan.

這是按照我們的計劃進行的。

As you know we were tight on availability in the market place.

如您所知，我們市場上的供應量很緊張。

The price realization that was positive in the second now third - fourth quarter price realization, in farm.

農場的第二個季度的價格實現是積極的，現在第三個季度到第四個季度的價格實現是積極的。

Especially since I [INAUDIBLE] again between North America and Europe?

特別是當我再次在北美和歐洲之間[聽不清楚]？

Well, we would -- our goal would be to continue experiencing very positive price realizations and we have in North America on the first of August we did cut back some of our incentive programs modestly.

好吧，我們的目標是繼續實現非常積極的價格實現，我們在 8 月 1 日在北美確實適度削減了一些激勵計劃。

So I think that there's a good chance we can continue that trend.

所以我認為我們很有可能繼續這種趨勢。

One quick -- tax rate?

快說一說——稅率？

Dave, [INAUDIBLE] thank you.

戴夫，[聽不清楚]謝謝你。

Bye.

再見。

Thank you.

謝謝。

Your next question comes from Mark Kosnerick.

您的下一個問題來自馬克·科斯內里克。

Please state your company name.

請註明您的公司名稱。

Midwest Research.

中西部研究。

Good morning Marie.

早安，瑪麗。

Good morning.

早安.

Can I ask again about this European surge in sales?

可以再問一下歐洲銷量激增的情況嗎？

I'm, you know, just kind of struck by the fact that you add new model introductions both in North America and in Europe, and clearly the acceptance is, you know, unusually strong in Europe relative to North America.

你知道，我對你在北美和歐洲增加新車型的事實感到震驚，而且顯然，相對於北美，歐洲的接受度異常強烈。

Can you contrast what the differences are there and also as part of this give and idea of overall retail sales in Europe total industry.

您能否比較一下其中的差異，以及歐洲整個產業整體零售額的貢獻和想法的一部分。

You just gave us Deere retail in Europe.

您剛剛為我們提供了迪爾在歐洲的零售業務。

Our outlook for the industry, Mark, is improved.

馬克，我們對該行業的前景有所改善。

Our outlook is now that industry sales could be up 5%.

我們目前的預期是行業銷售額可能成長 5%。

We think that Deere plays an important role in that increase.

我們認為迪爾在這一成長中發揮了重要作用。

But there are other factors involved in that increase as well.

但這種成長還涉及其他因素。

We are seeing very good activity on the used equipment markets with eastern part of Europe taking higher than expected levels of used equipment.

我們看到二手設備市場活動非常活躍，東歐地區的二手設備水準高於預期。

That helps promote flow-through on the new.

這有助於促進新產品的流通。

You also have pretty good levels of farm income.

你們的農場收入也相當不錯。

We see strength in the UK that's being helped, of course, by the government payments that were made as a result of the foot and mouth disease.

我們看到英國的實力得到了幫助，當然，這得益於政府因口蹄疫而支付的款項。

I presume -- .

我相信 - 。

European --

歐洲的 -

Deere outperformed the industry retail sales in the third quarter?

迪爾第三季零售額跑贏業？

I'm sorry I didn't hear the first part of your question because our connection was garbled.

很抱歉，我沒有聽到您問題的第一部分，因為我們的連線出現了亂碼。

Deere clearly outperformed industry retail sales in Europe for the quarter, would that be correct?

迪爾本季的歐洲零售銷售業績明顯優於產業，這是正確的嗎？

That would be our expectation, absolutely.

這絕對是我們的期望。

As you know Europe lags a bit on the reporting.

如您所知，歐洲的報告有點滯後。

I can tell you, though, based on what we have seen year-to-date, we think we are on track for about 4 points of improved market share in both tractors and combines.

不過，我可以告訴你，根據我們今年迄今為止所看到的情況，我們認為我們的拖拉機和聯合收割機市場份額預計將提高約 4 個百分點。

And then, you know, the first part of the question.

然後，你知道，問題的第一部分。

Can you contrast why the acceptance seems to be so much higher for the equipment in Europe versus North America?

您能否對比為什麼歐洲對設備的接受度似乎比北美高很多？

Well, for one thing, much broader array of new products into Europe because we had combines, we had telehandlers, implements, the new product introductions in North America.

嗯，一方面，更多的新產品進入歐洲，因為我們有聯合收割機，我們有伸縮臂叉裝機，機具，在北美推出了新產品。

Although there were a lot of them, they were primarily focused on tractors.

雖然數量很多，但主要集中在拖拉機上。

European agriculture is much more diverse than it is in the United States.

歐洲農業比美國農業更加多元。

They have a broader array of areas that they are deriving income from.

他們獲得收入的領域更加廣泛。

In the United States, up to this point grain prices have been somewhat lack luster as they have been for several years, and think think that's had a factor on it.

在美國，到目前為止，糧食價格一直有些缺乏光澤，就像多年來一樣，我認為這是其中的一個因素。

Or had an impact on the reaction in the markets.

或對市場的反應產生了影響。

You are not mentioning competitive issues?

你不是提到競爭問題嗎？

Clearly, I mean -- I have to look at the price realization we have seen in North America.

顯然，我的意思是——我必須看看我們在北美看到的價格實現情況。

And speculate that that might also have something to do with it.

並推測這可能也與此有關。

We are very pleased with our price realizations in North America.

我們對北美的價格實現非常滿意。

Okay.

好的。

So there's a trade-off going on, perhaps?

那麼也許存在著一種權衡？

Perhaps.

也許。

All right, Marie, thank you.

好的，瑪麗，謝謝你。

Next question comes from Ann [Doidman].

下一個問題來自 Ann [Doidman]。

Please state your company name.

請註明您的公司名稱。

Good morning.

早安.

This is Ann Doidman, Sanford Bernstein.

我是安‧多伊曼，桑福德‧伯恩斯坦。

I have a question on your planned shutdowns for Q4.

我對你們第四季的停工計畫有疑問。

You mentioned the agriculture sector.

您提到了農業部門。

Do you have any planned shutdowns for the other sectors?

其他部門有計畫關閉嗎？

That's a good question, Ann.

這是個好問題，安。

We will be having low levels of production in the other two businesses, but we don't have shutdown calculations the same way we do for Ag.

我們其他兩項業務的生產水準較低，但我們沒有像農業一樣進行停工計算。

In construction, for example, they vary the production rates much more so whereas in Ag you might take a shutdown day you don't in construction equipment you just have a lower level of activity.

例如，在建築業，它們對生產率的影響更大，而在農業業，您可能會停工一天，而在建築設備業則不然，您只是活動水平較低。

Unfortunately, I really don't have good comparative numbers.

不幸的是，我真的沒有很好的比較數字。

But we would, again expect that both the construction forestry and commercial and consumer would still be operating at relatively low levels of activity in the fourth quarter.

但我們再次預期第四季建築林業以及商業和消費者活動仍將處於相對較低的水平。

Lower than Q4 last year?

低於去年第四季？

No.

不。

Probably -- no, in both cases, actually, I would expect they would be slightly ahead of where they were last year in the fourth quarter.

可能 - 不，在這兩種情況下，實際上，我預計它們會略高於去年第四季的水平。

But still relatively low levels of production.

但生產水準仍然較低。

Okay.

好的。

And one quick question for clarification.

還有一個需要澄清的快速問題。

You mentioned in your press release that expenses related to the start-up of new products was negative.

您在新聞稿中提到，與新產品啟動相關的費用為負數。

Can you just comment on what the new products are?

能簡單評論一下新產品是什麼嗎？

That -- Ann that really relates to the first quarter when we were in a start-up mode in both Europe and North America on all of the new Ag products and we had start-up on our commercial and consumer products as well.

這確實與第一季有關，當時我們在歐洲和北美的所有新農業產品都處於啟動模式，我們的商業和消費產品也處於啟動狀態。

That primarily affected the first quarter.

這主要影響了第一季。

Okay.

好的。

So not related to new engine production in Mexico?

那麼與墨西哥的新引擎生產無關嗎？

No.

不。

Okay.

好的。

Thanks.

謝謝。

Thank you.

謝謝。

Next question comes from John McGinty.

下一個問題來自約翰·麥金蒂。

Please state your company name.

請註明您的公司名稱。

Credit Suisse first Boston.

瑞士信貸首先是波士頓。

Let me -- let me ask the question that Mark and a couple of people were dancing around slightly.

讓我——讓我問一個問題，馬克和幾個人正在輕微地跳舞。

Or asking it -- let me ask it a slightly different way.

或問它——讓我以稍微不同的方式問它。

If we look at European profitability, it's phenomenal.

如果我們看看歐洲的獲利能力，就會發現這是驚人的。

Or overseas profitability it's phenomenal relative to where you have been, actually in the same way in a way you have to go back to 1998 to look at CNCE and overseas to have these levels of profitability.

或者說，海外獲利能力相對於你曾經的水平來說是驚人的，實際上，你必須回到 1998 年，看看 CNCE 和海外才能擁有這些水平的盈利能力。

Is there anything in this quarter that was unusual, that was nonrecurring that was kind of abnormal?

本季是否有任何不尋常、非重複出現的異常情況？

Or are we, in fact, back to sustainably -- not, you know not in the fourth quarter, not in any quarter but on an annualized bases are we back to in CNCE and overseas these levels of profitability are stainable or was there something that was unusual or nonrecurring that benefited the third quarter in either one of those?

或者說，我們實際上是否回到了可持續發展的狀態——不是，你知道，不是在第四季度，不是在任何季度，而是在年化基礎上，我們在CNCE 和海外的盈利能力水平是否是可持續的，或者是否有什麼東西可以改變？其中任一方面是否有異常或非經常性因素使第三季度受益？

Um -- well, again in both divisions you are getting some benefit from the build to order which affects both the second and thirds quarters and negatively impacts our second and -- excuse me our first and fourth quarters.

嗯——嗯，在這兩個部門，你都從按訂單生產中獲得了一些好處，這影響了第二季度和第三季度，並對我們的第二季度和——請原諒我們的第一季度和第四季度產生了負面影響。

If you are asking now did we have a big inventory build?

如果您現在問我們是否有大量庫存？

Or anything unusual.

或任何不尋常的事情。

In other words, are these sustainable levels of profitability in those two businesses?

換句話說，這兩項業務的獲利水準是否可持續？

We certainly expect so.

我們當然希望如此。

We expect to deliver much better profitability.

我們預計將帶來更好的獲利能力。

Now, but again I want to caution you the fourth and first quarters will be weak.

現在，我想再次警告您，第四季和第一季將會疲軟。

No.

不。

I -- I'm talking -- I understand that fully.

我——我在說——我完全理解這一點。

I'm kind of trying to come back and look at whether or not we have come back -- not up to, but, in fact back to the level of run rates we were looking at four or five years ago which are, you know, demonstrably higher than we have been over the last obviously two or three years?

我有點想回來看看我們是否已經回來了——沒有達到，但實際上回到了我們四五年前的運行率水平，你知道，明顯高於過去兩三年的水平？

Overseas is definitely showing improvement and so is commercial and consumer.

海外市場肯定有所改善，商業和消費者也是如此。

If you are talking about a 12% operating margin in CNC they are probably not there yet.

如果你談論的是 CNC 領域 12% 的營業利潤率，那麼他們可能還沒有達到這個目標。

That would have been what we were doing in '94.

這就是我們 94 年所做的事情。

They are certainly well on the road that that.

他們確實在這方面進展順利。

Okay.

好的。

I guess the follow-up as -- you know, you mentioned in CF a whole bunch of nonrecurring factors that would have gotten us to break even had it not been for all of those things.

我猜想後續行動——你知道，你在 CF 中提到了一大堆非重複性因素，如果不是所有這些因素，這些因素本可以讓我們實現收支平衡。

As you look at CNF next year, given the fact that the Nortrack's charge will be less, even though it will be, if I'm reading you right that's 10 to 15 million per quarter next year?

當你看看明年的 CNF 時，考慮到 Nortrack 的費用將會減少，即使會，如果我沒聽錯的話，明年每季 1000 到 1500 萬美元？

Per quarter.

每季。

I don't know it will be meaningfully less.

我不知道它會明顯減少。

You won't have the impact in the third quarter that you did.

你不會在第三季產生像你那樣的影響。

But, conceivably you could have a $16 million charge in 2003 which would be similar to what you will have in 2002.

但是，可以想像，2003 年您可能需要支付 1600 萬美元的費用，這與 2002 年的費用類似。

So would you expect -- but, I mean the -- if we look at Nortracks, as you say it could be the same.

所以你會期望——但是，我的意思是——如果我們看看 Nortracks，正如你所說，情況可能是一樣的。

The skids steer closing and operating loss isn't going to be 38 million but the credit will continue to be there.

滑移轉向關閉和營運損失不會達到 3800 萬美元，但信貸將繼續存在。

Do you really expect to see much improvement in CF next year?

你真的希望明年CF會有很大進步嗎？

Um -- they are continuing with their expense reductions, but principally their fortunes will be driven by what happens in the market.

嗯——他們正在繼續削減開支，但主要是他們的命運將由市場發生的情況決定。

If the market remains as weak as it has been, it will be hard for them to show meaningful improvement.

如果市場仍然像以前一樣疲軟，他們將很難表現出有意義的改善。

But you are absolutely correct, skid steers we expect to perform much better.

但你是絕對正確的，我們期望滑移裝載機表現得更好。

The charge year-to-date on the closing of the factory alone is about 20 million pre-tax.

年初至今，光是關閉工廠一項的費用就約為稅前 2,000 萬歐元。

You will not have a repeat of that.

你不會再重蹈覆轍。

And as they get their operations into [Debuqe] the operating loss is just [INAUDIBLE].

當他們的業務進入[Debuqe]時，營運損失只是[聽不清楚]。

Thanks very much.

非常感謝。

The next question comes from David Bleustein.

下一個問題來自大衛布魯斯坦。

Please state your company name.

請註明您的公司名稱。

UBS Warburg.

瑞銀華寶。

Marie, the 4% market share you gained or you mentioned in Europe, 4% market share gain, what product lines do you believe you have seen the most improvement?

瑪麗，你獲得的4%的市佔率或你提到的在歐洲，4%的市佔率成長，你認為哪些產品線你看到了最大的進步？

If you could, what country specifically?

如果可以的話具體是哪個國家？

Well, UK is, of course, strong.

嗯，英國當然很強。

I don't have detailed market share, David.

我沒有詳細的市場份額，大衛。

I know the market there has been strong.

我知道那裡的市場一直很強大。

If you talk about product lines, we are benefitting from the new product introductions not only in Mannheim which would have been the 6,000 series tractors but also from the new combines, the new 8,000 series tractors that were introduced in Waterloo.

如果您談論產品線，我們不僅受益於曼海姆推出的新產品（6,000 系列拖拉機），還受益於新聯合收割機（滑鐵盧推出的新型 8,000 系列拖拉機）。

We have seen strengths in sales there, too, although you're dealing with, obviously, a much smaller base.

我們也看到了那裡的銷售優勢，儘管你面對的顯然是一個小得多的基數。

So it's a broad array of products that have contributed to those gains.

因此，一系列廣泛的產品為這些收益做出了貢獻。

All right.

好的。

Can you remind us of the primary business of the technology segment?

能為我們介紹一下科技板塊的主要業務嗎？

What point in time do you expect the business to stop hemorrhaging, be consolidated into another division?

您預期業務在什麼時間點停止虧損，並併入另一個部門？

The primary business of the technology segment is R&D.

科技板塊的主要業務是研發。

It is R&D directed at Deere.

這是針對迪爾的研發。

It's how we are going to have our agricultural management systems, how we are going to have smart equipment.

這就是我們將如何擁有我們的農業管理系統，我們將如何擁有智慧設備。

The reason it's separately reported, though is they are doing research and development not only for Deere but for other companies as well.

之所以單獨報道，是因為他們不僅為迪爾而且還為其他公司進行研發。

But, remember, when you see their results, that's R&D for the company.

但是，請記住，當您看到他們的結果時，這就是公司的研發成果。

All right.

好的。

And that is the reason why they exist within the Deere family.

這就是他們存在於迪爾家族的原因。

All right.

好的。

Then final question.

然後是最後一個問題。

Tax rate for the fourth quarter?

第四季稅率是多少？

Strange.

奇怪的。

I think for the full year you should use as guidance the rate we used for the year-to-date which would be about 54%.

我認為對於全年，您應該使用我們今年迄今使用的比率（約為 54%）作為指引。

But it's likely to be an odd looking rate.

但這可能是一個看起來很奇怪的利率。

Thanks very much.

非常感謝。

Thank you.

謝謝。

Your next question comes from Robert McCarthy.

您的下一個問題來自羅伯特·麥卡錫。

Please state your company name.

請註明您的公司名稱。

Robert W. Baird.

羅伯特·W·貝爾德。

Good morning, Marie.

早安，瑪麗。

Good morning, Rob.

早安，羅布。

Remind me.

提醒我。

In our European Ag organization, dealers typically hold very little inventory and so consequently the large gains that you have seen really represent sell-through at retail.

在我們的歐洲農業組織中，經銷商通常持有很少的庫存，因此您所看到的巨大收益確實代表了零售銷售。

That is correct.

那是對的。

Okay.

好的。

I don't know what kind of -- recognizing that our early days on developing outlook and plans for '03, but can you talk at least directionally about what you think we should expect to hear in terms of asset management goals for next year?

我不知道是什麼樣的——認識到我們早期制定 03 年的前景和計劃，但您能至少定向地談談您認為我們應該期望聽到的明年資產管理目標嗎？

For example, if overall volume for the company were up 5%, say, would we still look for a reduction in receivables and inventories on a combined basis?

例如，如果公司的整體銷售量成長了 5%，我們是否仍會尋求應收帳款和庫存的綜合減少？

Or are we getting close to some kind of finish line this year that we think would allow us to be in effect, you know, managing the assets in line with volume?

或者我們今年已經接近某種終點線，我們認為這將使我們能夠有效地根據數量管理資產？

You know what, obviously some of this will depend on exactly where we end the year.

你知道嗎，顯然其中一些將取決於我們今年的結束時間。

I think we are getting very close.

我認為我們已經非常接近了。

There are likely to be some individual products that we'll need to continue to bring down field inventories.

我們可能需要一些個別產品來繼續減少現場庫存。

But, if you look at inventories and receivables as a whole, we think we will be able to produce closer to demand than we have in the last few years.

但是，如果你把庫存和應收帳款作為一個整體來看，我們認為我們的生產將能夠比過去幾年更接近需求。

We expect that we'll get further gains over time as we are able to run with lower relative levels of inventory than we have traditionally.

我們預計，隨著時間的推移，我們將獲得進一步的收益，因為我們能夠以比傳統方式更低的相對庫存水準運作。

So we will be able to speed our through-put.

這樣我們就能夠加快我們的吞吐量。

Thanks.

謝謝。

Thank you.

謝謝。

The next question comes from Joan Shatney.

下一個問題來自瓊夏特尼。

Please state your company name.

請註明您的公司名稱。

Miss Shatney your line is now open.

夏特尼小姐，您的電話現已開通。

Sorry about that.

對於那個很抱歉。

Can you hear me now?

你聽得到我嗎？

Yes.

是的。

Marie, can you talk about the level of spending both for R&D and SG&A and how each of the divisions is thinking about this?

Marie，您能談談研發和銷售、一般管理費用的支出水平以及每個部門是如何考慮這個問題的嗎？

Are we coming off the R&D spending growth rate, or, you know, how should we be thinking about that?

我們的研發支出成長率是否會下降，或者我們應該如何考慮這個問題？

Um -- let me just talk about our specific guidance for this year.

嗯——讓我談談我們今年的具體指導。

For SG&A we are saying down slightly, and that's relative to the 2001 number without restructuring which would have been 1.2 billion.

對於 SG&A，我們認為略有下降，這是相對於 2001 年沒有重組的數字而言的，當時的數字為 12 億。

In R&D our guidance has been down modestly.

在研發方面，我們的指導略有下降。

You know, we have had in 2001, major new product introductions.

您知道，我們在 2001 年推出了重大新產品。

We are going to continue having a good level of R&D expenditures but it's -- I can assure you there's a tremendous desire within the company to not have that R&D grow much.

我們將繼續保持較高水準的研發支出，但我可以向你們保證，公司內部強烈希望研發支出不要成長太多。

I don't know that we'll be able to bring it down further in 2003, but it will be continued to be managed very tightly.

我不知道2003年我們能否進一步降低它，但它會繼續受到非常嚴格的管理。

So should we be looking at R&D in absolute dollars or should we be looking at it as a percent of sales?

那我們應該以絕對美元來看待研發，還是應該以銷售額的百分比來看待研發？

We really look at it more in absolute dollars because we look at R&D as investments over a long period of time.

我們確實更多地以絕對美元來看待它，因為我們將研發視為長期投資。

And the primary investments in those are in people and you don't vary your people dramatically year-to-year.

這些方面的主要投資是在人員方面，您不會每年大幅改變人員。

The SG&A going forward, we still look at that to grow in line with whatever the sales trend is or to grow faster than sales?

未來的SG&A，我們仍會關注它的成長是否與銷售趨勢一致，或成長速度快於銷售額？

Again, SG&A is also people related.

同樣，SG&A 也與人有關。

We have a benefit coming in 2003, you may recall we had these early retirement programs, and we had -- where people were actually out in December which was two months into our fiscal year.

我們在 2003 年推出了一項福利，您可能還記得我們有這些提前退休計劃，而且我們有——人們實際上在 12 月就退休了，也就是我們財政年度的兩個月後。

We had corporate reduction of staff about 200 to 250 people.

我們公司裁員約200至250人。

That's about 20 million pre tax.

稅前大約是2000萬。

We didn't get the full benefit of either one of those last year.

去年我們沒有充分受益於其中任何一個。

That will provide -- excuse me last year.

這將提供——對不起，去年。

This year, in 2002.

今年，即2002年。

We should get some additional incremental benefit in 2003.

2003年我們應該會得到一些額外的增量收益。

And there's again a great interest in the company at holding the line on SG&A and we'll see what comes in with the 2003 forecast.

公司再次對維持銷售、一般管理費用（SG&A）抱有極大的興趣，我們將看看 2003 年的預測會發生什麼。

Thanks, Marie.

謝謝，瑪麗。

Thank you.

謝謝。

The next question comes from Barry Bannister.

下一個問題來自巴里·班尼斯特。

Please state your company name.

請註明您的公司名稱。

Yes.

是的。

Barry Bannister, Legg Mason.

巴里·班尼斯特，萊格·梅森。

Hi, Barry.

嗨，巴里。

Hi.

你好。

Couple questions.

幾個問題。

One, could you break out.

一、你能突破嗎？

Part of the profit in credit that was derived from asset backed securitization sales this quarter and last quarter, year in the quarter.

信貸利潤的一部分來自本季和上季的資產支持證券化銷售。

And then also, tell me a year ago, what was Home Light's loss?

還有，告訴我一年前，Home Light 的損失是什麼？

I presume we know the full loss, but we don't know the seasonal break-out.

我想我們知道全部損失，但我們不知道季節性突破。

What was Home Light's loss a year ago?

Home Light一年前的虧損是多少？

In the quarter it was $18 million.

本季為 1800 萬美元。

If that's your question.

如果這是你的問題。

For Home Light.

對於家用燈。

And if you want the full year, I need to look it up.

如果你想要全年的數據，我需要查一下。

Um -- okay.

嗯——好吧。

Um -- the -- um -- last year in the first quarter Home Light had a loss of approximately $10 million.

嗯——嗯——去年第一季 Home Light 虧損了大約 1000 萬美元。

In the second quarter they had income of about 4 million, about 18 as we talked in the third quarter and in the fourth quarter they lost about $40 million.

第二季度他們的收入約為 400 萬美元，正如我們在第三季度談到的那樣，約為 18 美元，第四季度他們損失了約 4000 萬美元。

About 40 million?

大約4000萬？

About 40 million.

大約4000萬。

That should round to approximately 66 million.

這應該四捨五入到大約 6600 萬。

Okay.

好的。

What was the ABS contribution in finance this quarter versus a year ago?

與去年同期相比，本季 ABS 對金融的貢獻為何？

It was relatively flat.

它相對平坦。

I remember off the top of my head.

我記在腦子裡了。

Let's see.

讓我們來看看。

Maybe we can get to that really quickly, too.

也許我們也可以很快做到這一點。

Flat year-over-year.

同比持平。

The increment in the quarter was about a million dollars.

該季度的增量約為一百萬美元。

A million more?

還有一百萬？

A million more.

還有一百萬。

Well, just --

好吧，只是——

Pre tax.

稅前。

As a related follow-up.

作為相關的後續行動。

You did very, very well in your margin in finance.

你在金融領域的利潤率做得非常非常好。

And it wasn't really that well explained in the press release.

新聞稿中並沒有很好地解釋這一點。

If it wasn't ABS, was it mostly just spreads in declining provisions?

如果不是 ABS，是否主要只是準備金下降帶來的利差？

What exactly was it?

到底是什麼？

If you take out the 12 million after tax that we took in reserves related to that dealer issue, yes.

如果你把我們在與經銷商問題相關的準備金中扣除的稅後 1200 萬美元拿出來，是的。

Their actual loss expenses were down in the quarter.

他們的實際損失費用在本季有所下降。

And they did benefit from some positive factors in their overall gross margin.

他們確實受益於整體毛利率的一些積極因素。

I don't know how much of it came from spreads, et cetera.

我不知道其中有多少來自點差等等。

I know the gross margin would have been a bit positive.

我知道毛利率會有點正面。

You tend to match fund, though, don't you?

不過，你傾向於匹配資金，不是嗎？

You are not taking risk in terms of going short, right?

您不會冒做空的風險，對嗎？

That is correct.

那是對的。

That would not have been a big factor.

這不會是個大因素。

But do recall that we do have a little bit of basis risk -- risk is not the right term.

但請記住，我們確實有一點基礎風險——風險這個詞並不恰當。

Basis influence because we are funding short-term on a commercial paper and the notes tend to move on prime.

基差影響是因為我們為商業票據提供短期融資，而票據往往會在優質票據上移動。

Okay.

好的。

So occasionally you'll get some benefit there.

所以偶爾你會在那裡得到一些好處。

Thanks, Marie.

謝謝，瑪麗。

Thank you, Barry.

謝謝你，巴里。

Next question comes from Gary McManus.

下一個問題來自加里·麥克馬納斯。

Please state your company name.

請註明您的公司名稱。

J.P. Morgan.

摩根大通。

Hi, Marie.

嗨，瑪麗。

Hi.

你好。

You -- you provided full year forecast in the different segments and with three quarters actual, can you tell me what your fourth quarter industry volume assumptions are in each of the different segments?

您提供了不同細分市場的全年預測以及三個季度的實際情況，您能告訴我您對每個不同細分市場的第四季度行業銷售假設是多少嗎？

Our fourth quarter industry volumes?

我們第四季的產業銷量是多少？

You said like North American Ag down zero to 5% for the year.

你說北美農業公司今年的股價下跌了 0% 到 5%。

You have three quarters.

你有四分之三。

I just want to know fourth quarter industry volume assumptions that are implied in North American Ag, European AG, construction, et cetera, et cetera.

我只想知道北美農業、歐洲農業、建築業等所隱含的第四季產業產量假設。

I only have a number for the year, I'm sorry.

抱歉，我只有今年的數字。

I don't have any analysis that would give me that fourth quarter implication.

我沒有任何分析可以給我第四季的影響。

All right.

好的。

I have to work on my own.

我必須自己工作。

You wouldn't know what's the year-to-date sales in Europe industry volumes?

您不知道歐洲產業今年迄今的銷售額是多少？

I don't have a hard dollar figure.

我沒有確切的美元數字。

We are taking a look at units when we calculate that.

我們在計算時會考慮單位。

You don't have a unit number.

你沒有單位號碼。

Um -- not a publicly available one, no.

嗯——不是公開的，不是。

All right.

好的。

The break-even fourth quarter it will be in the equipment operations.

第四季的損益平衡將反映在設備業務上。

Should I assume that all of these -- you know the three major units will be near break-even or would you expect one to have a material loss and another have a material gain?

我是否應該假設所有這些 - 您知道三個主要單位將接近收支平衡，或者您是否預計其中一個會出現實質損失，而另一個會出現實質收益？

Can you give us some sort of sense are they all going to be near break-even?

您能否告訴我們，它們是否都會接近收支平衡？

Break-even for the quarter implies we make money and credit operations and we have a loss in equipment operations which really implies that the numbers work out that it's possible all three equipment operations have negative operating margins in the fourth quarter.

本季的收支平衡意味著我們賺錢並進行信貸業務，而我們的設備業務出現虧損，這實際上意味著數據顯示，所有三項設備業務在第四季度都有可能出現負營業利潤。

That's what you anticipate?

這就是你所期待的嗎？

That's what we anticipate.

這就是我們的預期。

We still, though obviously because we are looking for 100 million improvement we whoa not expect them to be as negative as a year ago.

我們仍然，儘管顯然是因為我們正在尋求一億的改進，但我們不希望它們會像一年前一樣消極。

Great.

偉大的。

Thank you.

謝謝。

The next question comes from Andrew Casey.

下一個問題來自安德魯·凱西。

Please state your company name.

請註明您的公司名稱。

Good morning, Marie, Prudential Securities.

早安，瑪麗，保德信證券公司。

Good morning, Andrew.

早安，安德魯。

Just a couple follow-up questions.

只是幾個後續問題。

In terms of Europe, can you remind us when the new products were really started to be introduced and you had the good year-over-year comparisons in penetration?

就歐洲而言，您能否提醒我們新產品何時真正開始推出，並且您的滲透率比去年同期比較好？

You really would have started seeing that in Europe in the second and then in the third quarters.

你真的會在第二季和第三季在歐洲看到這一點。

Okay.

好的。

Thanks.

謝謝。

And then in terms of debt to total cap target for the end of the year, do you have one?

那麼，就年底債務佔總上限的目標而言，你們有一個目標嗎？

I can tell you the overall company target for the equipment operations with financial services on the equity basis.

我可以告訴你公司在股權基礎上設備營運和金融服務的總體目標。

Overall the target is 35%.

整體目標是35%。

And if you consider the fact that we have a fairly good cash position, our net debt position will be quite a bit less than that.

如果你考慮到我們擁有相當不錯的現金狀況這一事實，我們的淨債務狀況將比這個少很多。

Thanks a lot.

多謝。

Thank you.

謝謝。

Thank you.

謝謝。

Your next question combs from John Emrick and please state your company name.

您的下一個問題來自 John Emrick，請註明您的公司名稱。

Hi Brickmark Capital.

嗨磚標資本。

Thank you.

謝謝。

Do you have an update on kind of pension fund asset performance year-to-date?

您有年初至今退休基金資產表現的最新情況嗎？

You know, I don't.

你知道，我不知道。

I have been obviously the market conditions have not been so encouraging as we are all aware.

顯然，市場狀況並不像我們都意識到的那麼令人鼓舞。

Maybe something that I can cite that will help you, is that we have taken a look at our rate of return on those assets which is 9.7%.

也許我可以舉出一些對您有幫助的事情，那就是我們已經研究了這些資產的回報率為 9.7%。

If we were to make a change, a one point change and take that down from 9.7 to 8.7, we would be looking at an additional annual cost of about $67 million pre tax and about 42 million after tax.

如果我們做出改變，改變一點，將其從 9.7 降低到 8.7，我們將需要額外增加約 6700 萬美元的稅前成本和約 4200 萬美元的稅後成本。

That's fair.

這還算公平。

That's part of the equation.

這是等式的一部分。

The other part of the equation is if your assets are actually down.

等式的另一部分是你的資產是否真的下降了。

I think your evaluation date was October 31.

我認為您的評估日期是 10 月 31 日。

It would be 31.

應該是31。

Which is relative -- if your assets are down 10% then you have -- that's another issue, you know there's an expense side and then the net under funded issue I'm trying to get my hands around.

這是相對的——如果你的資產下降了 10%，那麼你的資產就下降了——這是另一個問題，你知道有支出方面的問題，然後是我正在努力解決的淨資金不足問題。

Well, we report once a year, John and I don't have an update for you.

好吧，我們每年報告一次，約翰和我沒有更新給你。

Last question is do you have capital expenditures and capitalized software for the quarter?

最後一個問題是您本季有資本支出和資本化軟體嗎？

For the quarter.

對於本季。

I would have to calculate that.

我必須計算一下。

I would be happy to get back to you after the call with that detail.

我很樂意在通話後回覆您並提供詳細資訊。

I don't have that with me.

我身上沒有那個。

Thanks a lot.

多謝。

Thank you.

謝謝。

The next question comes from David Rossow.

下一個問題來自大衛·羅索。

Please state your company name.

請註明您的公司名稱。

Solomon, Smith Barney.

所羅門，美邦。

Hi, David.

嗨，大衛。

Follow-up for the production for the fourth quarter between the product.

後續為第四季產品的生產。

The Augusta facility with the strength in the smaller horse power tractors has there been any change in the production for that facility than what you saw say, three months ago?

奧古斯塔工廠擁有較小馬力拖拉機的實力，該工廠的生產與您三個月前看到的相比有什麼變化嗎？

They will have a change in that production in that particular factory vis-a-vis their previous forecast.

與先前的預測相比，他們在該特定工廠的產量將會改變。

How about on combines and Mannheim?

聯合收割機和曼海姆怎麼樣？

No.

不。

Expectations.

期望。

No.

不。

There has been no change on combines or no significant change out of Mannheim.

聯合收割機沒有變化，曼海姆也沒有重大變化。

Great.

偉大的。

Thank you.

謝謝。

Thank you.

謝謝。

Your next committee comes from Steve Volkman.

你們的下一個委員會來自史蒂夫·沃克曼。

Please state your company name.

請註明您的公司名稱。

Hi, Morgan Stanley again.

大家好，又是摩根士丹利。

Hi, Steve.

嗨，史蒂夫。

Nortracks, can you take me through a little bit how this works?

Nortracks，你能告訴我這是如何運作的嗎？

I don't know if I missed this or what.

我不知道是我錯過了這個還是什麼。

It strikes me, I guess, that whatever you assume the returns on that business were going to be, objectively they are much lower than that so I are sort of making up the difference for your investor.

我想，無論你假設該業務的回報率是多少，客觀上它們都比這低得多，所以我想為你的投資者彌補差額。

Presumably if things got better next year you wouldn't have to do that as much am I reading that right?

想必如果明年情況有所好轉，你就不必像我讀的那樣了，對嗎？

Absolutely.

絕對地。

The fact that you are giving us some guidance that it's going to cost something like 60 million potentially?

事實上，您給我們提供了一些指導，表明這可能會花費 6000 萬美元？

I gave you a range of 10 to $15 million a quarter which is a pretty good range.

我給你的範圍是每季 10 到 1500 萬美元，這是一個相當不錯的範圍。

So I think we have some flexibility in there.

所以我認為我們有一定的彈性。

Okay.

好的。

And obviously we would be delighted to reduce that number if the market would support that.

顯然，如果市場支持的話，我們會很高興減少這個數字。

Can you give us a sense of the book ends that are sort of involved there?

您能給我們介紹一下其中涉及的書尾嗎？

I mean are you basing that on kind of a flattish look for that business?

我的意思是，您是基於該業務的扁平化外觀嗎？

If it were up 5% you wouldn't have to do that.

如果上漲 5%，你就不必這樣做了。

I really couldn't get into the details of that particular calculation.

我真的無法深入了解該特定計算的細節。

I will tell you we are become cautious with our outlook.

我會告訴你，我們對我們的前景變得謹慎。

We talked about that with the commentary with the $33 million charge.

我們在評論中討論了 3300 萬美元的費用。

It's a very conservative estimate.

這是一個非常保守的估計。

It is our best estimate at this point.

這是我們目前最好的估計。

I really wouldn't be prepared to speculate beyond that.

我真的不准備對此進行猜測。

Okay.

好的。

What's the long-term disposition here?

這裡的長期部署是什麼？

Is there a way to get out of this thing?

有辦法擺脫這件事嗎？

Or how should we look at this strategically over the next --

或者我們接下來應該如何策略性地看待這個問題——

Strategically, the company -- I want to emphasize first, Nortracks has been profitable in each of the last seven months.

從戰略上講，我想首先強調的是，Nortracks 在過去七個月中每年都實現盈利。

They are profitable.

他們是有利可圖的。

The issue is that the profitability has not been what had been anticipated.

問題在於，獲利能力並未達到預期。

As you know, we --our timing on this with the market was difficult.

如您所知，我們在市場上的時機很困難。

The market has been very weak.

市場一直非常疲軟。

This is a cyclical business.

這是一個週期性的業務。

These are really the same issues that the construction equipment business faces itself.

這些實際上與建築設備業務本身面臨的問題相同。

Markets go up and go down and we are in a cyclical weak period.

市場有漲有跌，我們正處於週期性疲軟期。

Nortrack's concept is still appealing to us.

Nortrack的理念對我們來說仍然很有吸引力。

And it's a concept we still considered in a pilot phase.

我們仍在試點階段考慮這個概念。

We are not done.

我們還沒完成。

I'm assessing it, obviously, you don't like to have to report these kinds of charges in the quarter.

我正在評估，顯然，您不希望在本季度報告此類費用。

The concept of a stronger dealer network is appealing to the company.

更強大的經銷商網路的概念對該公司很有吸引力。

This may not be the only way to go about it.

這可能不是唯一的方法。

Beyond that I will not speculate.

除此之外我不會猜測。

Okay.

好的。

We have time for one more question.

我們還有時間再問一個問題。

Thank you.

謝謝。

Your final question comes from John McGinty.

你的最後一個問題來自約翰·麥金蒂。

Please state your company name.

請註明您的公司名稱。

Credit Suisse First Boston.

瑞士信貸第一波士頓。

Marie, have you all given the numbers that were released by the USDA yesterday, when you gave us the cash receipt kind of the shift in the composition of the cash receipt forecast and everything, were those based on Deere reworking those numbers, or was that based on Deere's guidance?

瑪麗，你們都給出了美國農業部昨天發布的數字嗎？當時你們向我們提供了現金收據預測的構成變化以及所有內容，這些數字是基於迪爾公司重新計算的數字，還是那些數字？基於迪爾的指導？

I'm just trying to understand.

我只是想理解。

Do you have a set of cash receipt numbers for '02 and '03 that reflect, you know, your numbers and the -- your spin on the USDA numbers, or are we not there yet.

您是否有一組 '02 和 '03 的現金收據號碼，這些號碼反映了您的號碼以及您對美國農業部號碼的解讀，或者我們還沒有做到這一點。

Yes, we do have a number.

是的，我們確實有一個號碼。

We had run our model in order to get ready for the conference call and to support what we see in the press release.

我們運行了我們的模型，以便為電話會議做好準備並支持我們在新聞稿中看到的內容。

That model had been run earlier.

該模型之前已經運行過。

The numbers are pretty reasonably close to what the USDA had.

這些數字相當接近美國農業部的數據。

The 125 bushels per acre for example for corn had been in the marked for some time.

例如，每英畝 125 蒲式耳的玉米價格已經有一段時間了。

I can share with you our estimated cash receipts.

我可以與您分享我們預計的現金收入。

Please.

請。

For 2001 so you all have a base comparison we are seeing that total cash receipts are now 223.1 billion.

對於 2001 年，大家都有一個基本比較，我們看到現金總收入現在為 2231 億美元。

For 2002, 215.4.

2002 年為 215.4。

For 2003, 224.9 billion.

2003年為2249億。

Now, the compositions.

現在，組成。

For crops.

對於農作物來說。

In 2001, 95.3. 101 even and for 2003 we would be looking at 106.5.

2001年，95.3。甚至是 101，而 2003 年我們將看到 106.5。

Wow!

哇！

Livestock last year was 106.4.

去年畜牧業為106.4。

It's down to 99.6.

已經降到99.6了

And for 2003, 105.7.

2003 年為 105.7。

Government payments. 21.4. 14.8 and 12.7.

政府付款。 21.4。 14.8 和 12.7。

If you look at 2002, basically what happened is we shifted what would have been in government payments into receipts from crops.

如果你看看 2002 年，基本上發生的事情是我們將政府付款轉為農作物收入。

You do see some lower level from livestock.

您確實看到牲畜的含量較低。

It's about 3 billion round numbers lower than in our previous estimate and that, of course, has to do with market conditions commodity prices have weakened some.

這比我們先前的估計低了約 30 億整數，當然，這與大宗商品價格有所走軟的市場狀況有關。

Marie as a follow-up question to that.

瑪麗作為後續問題。

One of the points that Jerry made at that famous meeting out in Moline, I don't know whenever it was three or four years ago.

傑瑞在莫林那次著名的會議上提出的觀點之一，我不知道是什麼時候三、四年前的事了。

'99.

'99。

'99.

'99。

Yes.

是的。

One of the reason that equipment sales are at a 30-year low when cash receipts which have been, you know, one of the higher levels of and continue to be high levels was the function of the fact that a big chunk of it as you pointed out came from government payments which previously were not guaranteed.

設備銷售額處於 30 年來的最低點，而現金收入一直是較高水平之一，並且將繼續處於高水平，原因之一是，其中很大一部分現金收入指出來自以前沒有保障的政府付款。

Now, if not guaranteed, at least that uncertainty issue point out is gone.

現在，即使不能保證，至少指出的不確定性問題已經消失了。

That's correct.

這是正確的。

This government payment level of 127, we have to go back to 1998 to get a government payment level that was that low.

政府支付水準為 127，我們必須回到 1998 年才能得到這麼低的政府支付水準。

I think it was 12.2 back there before it jumped up into the 20s.

我記得當時是 12.2，然後才跳到 20 多歲。

If you take the 225 billion in government payments, then the crop prices that are implied in that and the interest rates and everything else and run that through your model, I'm just asking mathematically, what kind of a -- in other words the model doesn't say how fast things are going to recover it's not a forecast, it's a math question.

如果你把 2250 億美元的政府付款，然後是其中隱含的農作物價格、利率和其他一切，並通過你的模型來運行，我只是從數學上問，是什麼樣的——換句話說，模型沒有說明事情將以多快的速度恢復，這不是預測，而是數學問題。

If you run that into your model what kind of a retail sales number does that level of cash receipts with that much of it being crop as opposed to government, you know we did 24,000 back in '98 on 10% less cash receipts.

如果你把這個問題輸入到你的模型中，什麼樣的零售銷售數字會影響現金收入的水平，其中大部分是農作物而不是政府，你知道我們在98 年做了24,000 份現金收入減少了10% 。

That was just a U.S. number.

那隻是一個美國號碼。

What mathematically do we end up with, with this level of cash?

從數學上來說，有了這麼多現金，我們最終會得到什麼？

John, we are not prepared to provide guidance.

約翰，我們不准備提供指導。

That's not guidance, that's a mathematical answer.

這不是指導，而是數學答案。

We are not prepared to comment on that.

我們不准備對此發表評論。

Clearly we would read the fundamentals as offering some interesting positives as we look into 2003.

顯然，當我們展望 2003 年時，我們會認為基本面提供了一些有趣的正面因素。

We still need to see where we end 2002.

我們仍然需要看看 2002 年的結局如何。

All right.

好的。

Thanks very much.

非常感謝。

Thank you all for participating in the call.

感謝大家參與此次通話。

Thank you.

謝謝。

This concludes the Deere and Company conference call.

迪爾公司電話會議到此結束。

We thank you for your participation.

我們感謝您的參與。