強鹿 (DE) 2001 Q2 法說會逐字稿

Q2 2001 DEERE & COMPANY EARNINGS CONFERENCE CALL

2001 年第 2 季迪爾公司財報電話會議

Good morning everyone and thank you for holding. All lines will be in a listen-only mode until the question and answer portion of our call begins. Today's call is being recorded at the request of Deere & Company. If anyone has objections, they may disconnect at this time. I would now like to turn the call over to Ms. Marie Ziegler, Director Investor Relations with Deere & Company. Thank you Ma'am, you may begin.

大家早安，謝謝您的支持。所有線路都將處於只聽模式，直到我們通話的問答部分開始。應迪爾公司的要求對今天的通話進行錄音。如果有人有異議，此時可能會斷開連接。我現在想將電話轉給迪爾公司投資者關係總監 Marie Ziegler 女士。謝謝女士，您可以開始了。

Good morning, Tony [_______________] and Greg Derrick join me today. This call is being broadcast live on the Internet and recorded for future transmission and use by Deere, CCBN, and third party. Participants in the call including the Q&A session agree that their likeness and remarks in all mediums maybe stored and used as part of the earnings call. Comments made during this conference call by state management expect our outlook, we project or otherwise state the company's predictions for the future, are forward-looking statements, subject to important risks and uncertainties. Actual results might differ materially from those projected in the forward-looking statements. Additional information concerning factors that could cause actual results to differ materially is contained in the company's SEC filings including the most recent form 10-Q, and in the press release being filed today on form 8-K. This morning's call is organized into four parts. First, we'll take a look at the operating results by business segments, and that will include the financial results, the month of April retail activity, and then the outlook. Next, we'll cover the usual array of housekeeping items, I'll have some concluding remarks, and then we'll open for the Q&A, and the entire call is expected to last about an hour. Lets dig right in with worldwide Ag. Reported sales, which will be our shipments to dealers, rose about 104 million over year ago levels in the second quarter. Operating profit was 131 million compared to 159 million. So, why the decline with higher sales? First, R&D as planned is higher, this cost about a point of margin in the quarter, we have talked extensively about our exciting plans for product introductions later this year with a record number of introductions in the Ag division and frankly for the full company.

早安，托尼 [_______________] 和格雷格·德里克今天加入我。此次通話正在網路上進行現場直播，並進行錄音，以供迪爾、CCBN 和第三方將來傳輸和使用。包括問答環節在內的電話會議參與者同意，他們在所有媒體上的喜好和言論可能會被儲存並用作財報電話會議的一部分。國家管理層在本次電話會議上發表的評論預期我們的前景，我們預測或以其他方式陳述公司對未來的預測，均為前瞻性陳述，存在重大風險和不確定性。實際結果可能與前瞻性陳述中的預測有重大差異。有關可能導致實際結果出現重大差異的因素的更多資​​訊包含在該公司向 SEC 提交的文件中，包括最新的 10-Q 表格，以及今天提交的 8-K 表格新聞稿。今天早上的電話會議分為四個部分。首先，我們將按業務部門查看經營業績，其中包括財務業績、四月份零售活動，然後是前景。接下來，我們將介紹通常的一系列內務管理項目，我將做一些總結性發言，然後我們將開始問答，整個電話會議預計將持續約一個小時。讓我們深入了解全球農業。第二季報告的銷售額（即我們向經銷商的出貨量）比去年同期成長了約 1.04 億美元。營業利潤為 1.31 億美元，去年同期為 1.59 億美元。那麼，為什麼銷售額增加卻下降呢？首先，按計劃進行的研發較高，這一成本約為本季度的一個利潤點，我們廣泛討論了今年晚些時候推出的令人興奮的產品計劃，其中農業部門以及整個公司的產品推出數量創下了紀錄。

The second factor is the one-week shutdown at Waterloo on row crop tractors and 4-wheeler drives. This was announced with the press release we made on the March 21, 2001. That one-week shutdown cost about a point of margin, as you know Waterloo is certainly one of our most significant factory, in terms of the impact on the operating results. And then there are just a number of smaller factors that in total represent about another point, point and a half of margin. The two things, one is mentioned in the press release, SG&A, we also have a little bit of the mix impact because completed sales are quite a bit more than part sales are in the quarter and, of course, margins are more attractive on part then on complete goods. Looking now at the retail activity in the month of April, we'll start with North America and utility tractors, which will be tractors in the 40 to 100 horsepower segment. Industry was up 12% and Deere sales were about flat with a year ago level. The row crops, which will be 2-wheeler drive tractors over a 100 horsepower, industry sales were up 12% and Deere was up more than the industry. With Deere, we were particularly gratified with these results because we were up against reasonably tough comparisons of a year ago, and, of course, that drove the industry to a rather difficult comparison. If you look at 4-wheeler drive tractors, here the industry is up 23% and Deere is slightly higher than the industry. Finally in combines, the industry was down 8% in the month, Deere was down, but less than the industry. Probably what's more significant here is April is not a key selling month, it's only about 7% of a year worth of sales. What is important for Deere is that our order bulk is covered over 90% plus, which would be sales that we made year to date plus what we expect to retail for the rest of the year. So we're in a very good position,

第二個因素是滑鐵盧中耕作物拖拉機和四輪驅動車停產一週。這是我們在2001 年3 月21 日發布的新聞稿中宣布的。就對經營業績的影響而言，正如您所知，滑鐵盧無疑是我們最重要的工廠之一，一周的停工成本約為一個利潤點。然後還有一些較小的因素，總共代表了大約另一個點、一點半的利潤。這兩件事，一是在新聞稿中提到的，SG&A，我們也有一點混合影響，因為完成的銷售額比本季度的部分銷售額多得多，當然，部分的利潤更具吸引力然後就完整的貨物。現在來看看 4 月的零售活動，我們將從北美和公用拖拉機開始，這些拖拉機將是 40 至 100 馬力部分的拖拉機。工業成長 12%，迪爾銷售額與去年同期基本持平。中耕作物採用 100 匹馬力以上的兩輪驅動拖拉機，產業銷售額成長了 12%，迪爾的增幅超過了產業。對於迪爾，我們對這些結果感到特別滿意，因為我們面臨著與一年前相當艱難的比較，當然，這使整個行業陷入了相當困難的比較。如果你看看四輪驅動拖拉機，這個行業成長了 23%，迪爾略高於產業。最後是聯合收割機，該行業當月下跌了8%，迪爾下跌，但低於該行業。也許更重要的是四月並不是關鍵的銷售月份，它只佔一年銷售額的 7% 左右。對於迪爾來說，重要的是我們的訂單量涵蓋了 90% 以上，這就是我們今年迄今為止的銷售額加上我們預計今年剩餘時間的零售量。所以我們處於一個非常有利的位置

and our year-to-date increases have been very significant, and we're running about 50% ahead of a year ago. We'll talk a little bit more about that later. Moving on to Western Europe, there for Deere in April, tractors were down a single digit and combines were flat with a year ago levels. Moving on to the AG outlook, starting first with North America, the key economic fundamentals in North America are basically unchanged over the past six months. We still expect higher cash receipts, we are now projecting them at 221.8 billion, but you will see higher production expenses because of fuel and fertilizer cost, and so, again we see cash income projected at flat with last year at approximately 56.5 billion, these are Deere & company estimates. You have the USDA last week giving some early indications of yields, I probably don't want to comment on is the corn yield. The USDA basically went with what is the trend yield. We continued to think that we'll see lower application of fertilizer because of the cost and availability and this will hold the yields down. The USDA had about 137 bushels per acre yield this year. In our basic forecast, we're still looking for about 134.5 and that will drive down [_______________] somewhat. Reason I mentioned this is basically that we think helps to offset what you're going to see with soybeans, which are higher yields and a higher production and carry out. So bottom line, industry outlook in North America is unchanged from what it has been which is flat to up slightly. Now in Europe there, of course, has been one significant development since we last talked, and that will be the outbreak of foot-and-mouth disease. It looks like it's under control. You had the number of new cases being

今年迄今為止，我們的成長非常顯著，比一年前成長了約 50%。稍後我們會詳細討論這一點。轉向西歐，迪爾公司 4 月的拖拉機產量下降了個位數，聯合收割機產量與一年前水準持平。接下來是 AG 展望，首先從北美開始，過去六個月北美的主要經濟基本面基本上沒有改變。我們仍然預期現金收入會更高，我們現在預計為2,218 億美元，但由於燃料和化肥成本，您會看到更高的生產費用，因此，我們再次看到現金收入預計與去年持平，約為565億美元，這些都是迪爾的估計。美國農業部上週給出了一些產量的早期跡象，我可能不想評論玉米產量。美國農業部基本上遵循趨勢收益率。我們仍然認為，由於成本和可用性的原因，化肥的施用量將會減少，這將壓低產量。美國農業部今年的產量約為每英畝 137 蒲式耳。在我們的基本預測中，我們仍在尋找 134.5 左右的位置，這將導致 [_______________] 有所下降。我之所以提到這一點，主要是因為我們認為這有助於抵消大豆的產量和產量的增加。因此，底線是，北美的產業前景與以往持平或略有上升的情況並沒有改變。當然，自從我們上次談話以來，歐洲出現了一個重大進展，那就是口蹄疫的爆發。看起來已經被控制住了。您的新病例數為

reported in UK shrinking overnight, it was about six new cases and that's down significantly from what it had been. Also, it looks like foot-and-mouth has been apparently contained on the continent. Our previous outlook was for sales for the industry to be down about 5%. Obviously foot-and-mouth has impacted that. Also, we are seeing cold and wet spring in Europe, which has delayed planting. So when you throw that on into the mix, we're now saying the industry will probably decline 10-15% in 2001. For the rest of the world, strong farm equipment markets in Brazil, but a little bit of further softening in the outlook for Argentina, Australia, Mexico, China. Previously, we were saying the outlook for this region as well was flat, we are now saying it slid marginally to flat to down 5%. Now that takes care of industry outlook for Deere. We've seen fairly good retail activity in Europe on our market shares. We estimate it to be up a little bit year-to-date. We're clearly seeing very good results in North America. Things continue to have good activity in our outlook. Combines, as I mentioned earlier, were up by about 50%. Now, we don't expect that very high case in the early part of the year to be continued throughout the year, but nonetheless with that kind of order coverage, that I mentioned earlier of 90% plus, surely gives us good confidence in our retail forecast there. We have good activity in livestock related products, in North America that would be like 6000-series tractors, dealers, mowers, conditioners, and planting equipment, it's been good. What hasn't been as good as we had anticipated are row crops and 4-wheeler drives. In both cases, year-to-date sales are ahead of year ago, but they are not to the level that we had anticipated, and so, you've seen

據報道，英國一夕之間出現萎縮，新增病例約六例，與先前相比大幅下降。此外，看起來口蹄疫顯然已被遏制在這片大陸上。我們先前的預測是該行業的銷售額將下降約 5%。顯然，口蹄疫對此產生了影響。此外，歐洲春季寒冷潮濕，導致播種延遲。因此，當您將這一因素考慮在內時，我們現在可以說該行業2001 年可能會下降10-15%。對於世界其他地區來說，巴西的農業設備市場強勁，但巴西的農業設備市場進一步疲軟。阿根廷、澳洲、墨西哥、中國的前景。此前，我們表示該地區的前景也持平，現在我們表示該地區的前景略有下滑，至下降 5%。現在這關係到迪爾的產業前景。我們在歐洲的市佔率上看到了相當不錯的零售活動。我們估計今年迄今為止它會略有上升。我們在北美顯然看到了非常好的結果。我們的前景繼續良好。正如我之前提到的，聯合收割機上漲了約 50%。現在，我們預計今年年初的這種非常高的情況不會在全年持續，但儘管如此，我之前提到的 90% 以上的訂單覆蓋率肯定會讓我們對我們的業務充滿信心。那裡的零售預測。我們在北美的畜牧相關產品方面有良好的活動，例如 6000 系列拖拉機、經銷商、割草機、調節器和種植設備，這很好。中耕作物和四輪驅動車的情況沒有我們預期的那麼好。在這兩種情況下，年初至今的銷售額都領先於去年同期，但並未達到我們預期的水平，因此，您已經看到

shutdowns announced in Waterloo. We had one at the end of April, that had been previously announced, and you see with this press release, the announcement of a second shutdown in Waterloo. In addition, I think you're all aware that we have very major product introductions coming up this year. We have told our dealers that there will be new 8000 & 9000 series tractors being introduced. These would be the very high-end of the row crop tractors and in 4-wheel drive tractor line. As we look to transition to new model lines, we need to manage those inventories very, very carefully and not put additional pressure, frankly, on the production schedules. So, putting it all together, for Deere for the full year, worldwide, we are targeting worldwide AG sales that would be slightly above the levels of 2000. Let's look now at commercial and consumer equipment and here, we need to start with retail activity because that explains the quarter. In the month of April, and April is one of the four key spring sales month, our retail activity with our dealers was down nearly 10% and the slowdown is affecting virtually all product categories. So, as we are more responsive to retail results than we see our sales to dealers in the quarter down 13%. If you take out the benefit of the McGinnis farm and Great Dane acquisitions, which are newly acquired companies, then our sales to dealers would have been down 15% in the quarter and that is the story of the operating profit decline to 64 million compared to a 115 million a year ago in the quarter. I should note, as a side note, McGinnis farms has changed it's name and it is now known as John Deere Landscapes and we'll be referring to them in the future

滑鐵盧宣布停工。我們在四月底有一次，這是之前宣布的，你可以在這篇新聞稿中看到，滑鐵盧宣布第二次關閉。此外，我想你們都知道我們今年將推出非常重要的產品。我們已告知經銷商，將推出新的 8000 和 9000 系列拖拉機。這些將是中耕作物拖拉機和四輪驅動拖拉機系列中的非常高端。當我們希望過渡到新的車型系列時，我們需要非常非常仔細地管理這些庫存，坦白說，不要對生產計劃施加額外的壓力。因此，總而言之，對於迪爾在全球範圍內的全年而言，我們的目標是全球AG 銷售額略高於2000 年的水平。現在讓我們看看商業和消費設備，在這裡，我們需要從零售活動開始因為這解釋了這個季度。 4 月是春季銷售的四個關鍵月份之一，我們與經銷商的零售活動下降了近 10%，這種放緩幾乎影響了所有產品類別。因此，由於我們對零售結果的反應比我們看到的本季經銷商銷售額下降了 13%。如果你剔除麥金尼斯農場和大丹犬收購（這些公司是新收購的公司）的好處，那麼本季我們對經銷商的銷售額將下降15%，這就是營業利潤下降至6,400 萬美元的原因。去年同期為 1.15 億美元。我應該指出，作為旁注，麥金尼斯農場已更改其名稱，現在更名為約翰迪爾景觀，我們將來會提到它們

as John Deere Landscapes. Now there is a bit of good news here in this division and that is pricing. Pricing was actually a benefit. We're talking about net price increases, which they have taken some modest ones and some reduction in discounting actually generating about a point of benefit in the quarter, and I do wanted to make a note on SG&A in the quarter if you took out the impact of McGinnis farms, John Deere Landscapes now known as and Great Dane. Actually SG&A for this division was flat in the quarter and it had, up to this point, been running ahead of a year ago levels actually for some time as this division has been growing, so you see a slight change in the trend there. Now, going on to the outlook. We know that the consumer is slowing down. One measure that we have are expenditures on non-auto durables, which this year are projected to increase about 4% and they have been running in the 10-15% annual increases. We know the weather has been bad. It's a very seasonal business and we've missed now a good month, month and a half, of our prime selling season. We don't have good data on the industry. The industry reports shipping data, not retail sales activity. If you listen anecdotally to what's happening, one would expect that everybody in the industry is having a tough go of it here. However, what we can't tell you is what our own outlook is for our retail activity, and so we're going to talk specifically about our shipping outlook for the entire year. If you take out McGinnis, and that's John Deere Landscapes now and Great Dane, we expect our sales to dealers will be down low double digit. One thing that hasn't changed is the commitment to improving our ability to deliver products through our dealers closer to the time of use.

如約翰迪爾景觀。現在這個部門有一些好消息，那就是定價。定價實際上是一個好處。我們談論的是淨價格上漲，他們採取了一些適度的上漲，並減少了一些折扣，實際上在本季度產生了一定的收益，如果您剔除麥金尼斯農場的影響，約翰迪爾景觀現在被稱為大丹犬。實際上，該部門的 SG&A 在本季度持平，到目前為止，由於該部門一直在增長，因此實際上已經領先於一年前的水平一段時間，因此您會看到那裡的趨勢略有變化。現在，繼續展望。我們知道消費者的消費速度正在放緩。我們採取的一項措施是非汽車耐用品支出，預計今年將成長 4% 左右，並且每年增長 10-15%。我們知道天氣很糟。這是一個非常季節性的業務，我們現在已經錯過了一個半月的黃金銷售季節。我們沒有有關該行業的良好數據。該行業報告運輸數據，而不是零售銷售活動。如果你聽聽正在發生的事情，你會發現這個行業的每個人都在經歷艱難的處境。然而，我們無法告訴您的是我們自己對零售活動的展望，因此我們將專門討論全年的運輸前景。如果除去麥金尼斯，也就是現在的約翰迪爾景觀公司和大丹犬公司，我們預計我們對經銷商的銷售額將下降兩位數。沒有改變的一件事是致力於提高我們透過經銷商在接近使用時間交付產品的能力。

In the commercial and consumer equipment division, they are adopting a process called commercial order fulfillment and despite the very difficult market conditions they're in, they're committed to implementing this. Basically this allows them to run with lower field inventories at the dealers and then we're able to respond much more rapidly to retail activity. The impact of this switch is about $125 million of sales, so in other words, sales will be 125 million lower than they; otherwise, would have been. Moving on now to construction equipment. Again, the story here is what's happening in that retail. In the month of April on both first in the dirt and settlements basis, activities for Deere was down double digit. This brings Deere's year-to-date settlement activity down about 20% year to date. Now, here also order fulfillment is having an impact. We have our process called estimate-to-cash, which we've talked about over the last many quarters. This is intended to allow us to produce again to a retail order, and therefore, it immediately reflects retail conditions. Now, the news is in this environment obviously it's very difficult, but it is making us very responsive to the changes in the market and when the market turns, of course, we'll be very responsive to the up turn. But in the meantime, as we see retails slowing, you're seeing as planned, as the system is designed to work production changes, and that again is what the big story of the quarter for construction equipment. In the quarter, our sales to dealers were down 12% and that's as reported if you take out the impact of Timberjack, buying would have been down 27%. Just a

在商業和消費設備部門，他們正在採用一種稱為商業訂單履行的流程，儘管他們所處的市場條件非常困難，但他們仍致力於實施這項流程。基本上，這使他們能夠在經銷商處以較低的現場庫存運行，然後我們能夠更快地對零售活動做出反應。這次轉換的影響大約是1.25億美元的銷售額，所以換句話說，銷售額會比他們低1.25億；否則的話，就會是這樣。現在轉向建築設備。再說一遍，這裡的故事是零售業正在發生的事情。 4 月份，無論是在泥土還是定居點方面，迪爾的活動均下降了兩位數。這使得 Deere 年初至今的結算活動減少了約 20%。現在，訂單履行也產生了影響。我們有一個稱為「估算到現金」的流程，我們在過去的幾個季度中一直在討論這個流程。這樣做的目的是讓我們能夠再次按照零售訂單生產，因此，它可以立即反映零售狀況。現在，在這種環境下，消息顯然非常困難，但這使我們對市場的變化非常敏感，當市場轉向時，我們當然會對上漲做出非常敏感的反應。但同時，當我們看到零售放緩時，您會看到按計劃進行，因為該系統旨在適應生產變化，這又是本季度建築設備的重大事件。本季，我們對經銷商的銷售額下降了 12%，據報道，如果排除 Timberjack 的影響，購買量將下降 27%。只是一個

reminder Timberjack was acquired at the end of April 2000. With that acquisition Deere, became the number one producer of forestry equipment in the world. Timberjack was consolidated into the Deere balance sheet at the end of the second quarter of last year, but it had virtually no impact on the income statement for the quarter last year. Okay, going back then with all Timberjack volumes down about 27% and that is the major factor explaining the second quarter operating margin and profit declines, operating profit was 34 million compared to 81 million a year ago. There is a second factor and that is discounting. The market continues to increase in its competitiveness. In the quarter, discounting cost us roughly 3 points of margin, and again a note on the impact on R&D and SG&A of the Timberjack acquisition it was taken out, we actually would have seen those two categories down slightly below a year ago level. Okay, now the outlook. We are in our key selling season with the weak economy. Housing is the primary driver of our construction-oriented business. Housing is also a fairly strong start, which starts running at about 1.6 million seasonally, annually adjusted through March. The forecast continues to show starts ending the year averaging about 1.5 million units, which means housing will weaken as we move though the year. This implies a slower second half. I want to emphasize this is still a historically good level of housing starts, but directionally, it's down. Additionally, you have paper and pulp demand that has slipped in the quarter and lumber demand continues to remain weak. You're seeing this reflected in what's happening in forestry equipment. North American industry sales of Skidders, that's a fairly a common product used in forestry in North America, those

提醒 Timberjack 於 2000 年 4 月被收購。透過這項收購，Deere 成為全球第一大林業設備生產商。 Timberjack於去年第二季末併入迪爾資產負債表，但對去年季度的損益表幾乎沒有影響。好的，回想一下，當時所有 Timberjack 銷量下降了約 27%，這是解釋第二季度營業利潤率和利潤下降的主要因素，營業利潤為 3,400 萬美元，而一年前為 8,100 萬美元。還有第二個因素，那就是折扣。市場競爭力不斷增強。在本季度，折扣使我們損失了約 3 個百分點的利潤，並且再次考慮了 Timberjack 收購對研發和 SG&A 的影響，我們實際上會看到這兩個類別略低於一年前的水平。好了，現在展望一下。由於經濟疲軟，我們正處於關鍵的銷售季節。住房是我們以建築為導向的業務的主要驅動力。房屋市場也是一個相當強勁的開局，季節性開工量約為 160 萬套，每年調整至 3 月。預測繼續顯示，年底開工量平均約為 150 萬套，這意味著隨著今年的推移，房屋市場將會走弱。這意味著下半場會更慢。我想強調的是，這仍然是歷史上良好的新屋開工水平，但從方向上看，它是下降的。此外，本季紙張和紙漿需求有所下滑，木材需求持續疲軟。您會在林業設備的情況中看到這一點。集材機的北美工業銷售，這是北美林業中相當常見的產品，那些

sales were down 20% already year-to-date from already low levels. Then finally, we are seeing purchases by independent rental companies down significantly. Our sales to the independent rental companies in the month of April were down 75% from a year ago level and April, May, and June are key selling months into the independent rental companies. This as a result is driving a change in our outlook. We are now projecting that for the year purchases by the independent rental companies to be down about 60% versus a year ago level. Our previous outlook had been down 20-25%. Why the change? Basically, what's happened is we work with our large customers on requirements forecast and the requirements forecast that we were getting indicated that there would be a much higher level of activity than there has been, and they actually continued to indicate a much higher level of activity, but facts are it's not translating into retail sales activity and we have adjusted our outlook accordingly. Just a reminder, that the independent rental companies represent 15-20% of construction equipment sales, so this is another important change in the outlook. So, in summary, if you look at what's happened on the retail activity for the industry through April to the six months ended April in the categories in which we compete, we're seeing industry sales down about 17% that's on a first in the dirt basis with the monthly activity down about 20%. So all of this is being done incorporated into our new outlook where we see industry sales will be down 20-25% for the year now and our previous outlook was down 10-15%. Now for Deere, in particular, the weakness in the rental market will have a larger impact on us because of the size of our relationship with the some of those rental companies,

今年迄今為止，銷售額已較本已較低的水平下降了 20%。最後，我們看到獨立租賃公司的購買量大幅下降。 4 月我們對獨立租賃公司的銷售額比去年同期下降了 75%，而 4 月、5 月和 6 月是獨立租賃公司的關鍵銷售月份。因此，這正在推動我們的前景發生變化。我們現在預計，今年獨立租賃公司的購買量將比去年同期下降約 60%。我們之前的預期下調了 20-25%。為什麼要改變？基本上，所發生的情況是，我們與大客戶合作進行需求預測，我們得到的需求預測表明，活動水平將比以前高得多，而且它們實際上繼續表明活動水平要高得多，但事實是它並沒有轉化為零售銷售活動，我們也相應地調整了我們的前景。請注意，獨立租賃公司佔建築設備銷售額的 15-20%，因此這是前景的另一個重要變化。因此，總而言之，如果你看看我們競爭的類別中從4 月份到截至4 月份的六個月期間該行業的零售活動發生了什麼，我們會看到行業銷售額下降了約17%，這是該行業的首次下降。污垢基礎上每月活動下降約 20%。因此，所有這些都已納入我們的新展望中，我們預計今年行業銷售額將下降 20-25%，而我們先前的預測為下降 10-15%。現在對迪爾來說，尤其是租賃市場的疲軟將對我們產生更大的影響，因為我們與其中一些租賃公司的關係規模很大，

and so, we expect that our shipments to dealers will be down somewhat more than the 20-25% that we're projecting for the industry. They should note that that does exclude Timberjack again from both years, just trying to give you an apples-to-apples comparison. Turning now to credits. Now I am going to talk about net income, not operating profit. Net income for credit was 39.6 million in the quarter compared to 36.2 million. Their average portfolio finance continues to grow, it's up about 6% versus year ago level. They did benefit from some note sale gains and that was about a $6 million benefit pretax. The notes really relate to the non-core business. One was the sale of wholesale portfolio. That time we have exited that business and that's consistent with the strategy you've been seeing evidence of early some last few years where we're exiting non-Deere related businesses, and so this is again another piece of it, and then also with recreational vehicle activities, we continue to originate retail notes, but then we sell them and we've seen a fairly brisk business in the quarter with interest rates falling that's somewhat counterintuitive with the state of the economy, but nonetheless the activity there has been pretty good and so we had a higher than anticipated level of sales as we move those through. So, again 6 million pretax gain. Offsetting that, you do see a higher provision for credit losses and it's about 6 million in the quarter. First of all, though, I want to emphasize that overall credit quality of the portfolio continues to be good. Past dues in total are 0.7% of the total portfolio compared to 0.6% a year ago, and if you look at AG, it's flat and if you look at the commercial and consumer, it's flat, very, very stable.

因此，我們預計經銷商的出貨量將比我們對該行業預測的 20-25% 下降更多。他們應該注意到，這確實將 Timberjack 再次排除在這兩年之外，只是為了給你一個同類比較。現在轉向學分。現在我要談的是淨利潤，而不是營業利潤。本季信貸淨利為 3,960 萬美元，去年同期為 3,620 萬美元。他們的平均投資組合融資持續成長，比去年同期成長了約 6%。他們確實從一些票據銷售收益中受益，稅前收益約為 600 萬美元。這些註釋確實與非核心業務相關。其中之一是批發投資組合的銷售。當時我們已經退出了該業務，這與您在過去幾年早期看到的證據一致，我們正在退出非迪爾相關業務，所以這又是其中的另一部分，然後也是休閒車活動，我們繼續發行零售票據，但隨後我們出售它們，我們看到本季度業務相當活躍，利率下降，這與經濟狀況有些違反直覺，但儘管如此，那裡的活動相當活躍很好，所以當我們完成這些工作時，我們的銷售水準高於預期。這樣，又獲得600萬稅前所得。抵消這一點，您確實會看到信用損失準備金增加，本季約為 600 萬美元。不過，首先我想強調的是，投資組合的整體信用品質仍然良好。逾期未付款項佔總投資組合的 0.7%，而一年前為 0.6%，如果你看看 AG，它是持平的，如果你看看商業和消費者，它是持平的，非常非常穩定。

The issue has really been in the commercial side of the business, and principally it's related to forestry and that's consistent with very weak forestry markets and retained some higher write-off there. But again the overall credit quality remains good. SG&A is higher and this is the comment we've had actually for several quarters that basically reflects the larger portfolio and some of the new business initiatives. So the full year credit is still targeting that their income will grow around 10%, you may recall they have a target 10% to 15%, and we've been saying some time it'll be closer to 10% this year. In the third quarter of last year, we had a note sale. This will be a regular asset back to the securitization. We don't expect to do one this coming third quarter, now we're opportunistic, I can't guarantee whether or not we will or won't, but our current plans don't have one in and so that'll have in the quarter, an impact of about 5 to 10 million pretax. Let's move on now to the housekeeping items. First, I'm going to do something that we haven't done before and let's talk about the sales of the acquisition. You know, as we've gone through the outlooks and the commentary by the various divisions, we keep talking about the impact with or without acquisitions, let me just give you the numbers of those. First just a reminder, in the second quarter of last year, no impact from acquisitions on net sales. In the second quarter of this year, Timberjack about a 100 million and John Deere Landscapes and Great Dane about 27 million for the full year. Projected Timberjack impact would be 425-450 million and John Deere Landscapes and Great Dane a 150-175 gain nets for the full year. As a reminder, you don't have to dig back through your notes, Timberjack last year in the third quarter

這個問題確實存在於業務的商業方面，主要與林業有關，這與非常疲軟的林業市場一致，並在那裡保留了一些較高的沖銷。但整體信用品質仍然良好。 SG&A 更高，這是我們幾個季度以來實際收到的評論，基本上反映了更大的投資組合和一些新的業務計劃。因此，全年信貸的目標仍然是他們的收入成長 10% 左右，你可能還記得他們的目標是 10% 到 15%，我們一直在說今年會接近 10%。去年第三季度，我們進行了票據銷售。這將是一項常規資產回到證券化。我們預計在即將到來的第三季度不會這樣做，現在我們是機會主義的，我不能保證我們是否會或不會，但我們目前的計劃沒有一項，所以會有該季度影響稅前約5至1000萬美元。現在讓我們繼續討論內務管理專案。首先，我要做一些我們以前沒有做過的事情，讓我們談談收購的銷售。你知道，當我們回顧了各部門的前景和評論時，我們一直在談論有或沒有收購的影響，讓我給你這些數字。首先提醒一下，去年第二季度，收購對淨銷售額沒有影響。今年第二季度，Timberjack 全年銷量約 1 億，John Deere Landscapes 和 Great Dane 全年銷量約 2,700 萬。預計 Timberjack 的影響將達到 4.25-4.5 億，約翰迪爾景觀公司和 Great Dane 全年的淨收益為 150-175。提醒一下，你不必翻閱你的筆記，Timberjack 去年第三季度

was 75 million and in the fourth quarter 165 million. Now that, the split was unusual last year, Timberjack was on a monthly cycle closing that was different than Deere. The transition to Deere scheduled and as a result in the third quarter, we only picked up two months of activity, in the fourth quarter we picked up four months, this year obviously, we were expecting the usual three and three. Moving on pricing and exchange. In the second quarter, consolidated net sales down 3%, physical volumes down 1%, exchange accounts for the two points of difference, and I point out that means in that net pricing, which would be price increases that of discounting is flat in a very difficult environment. Year-to-date consolidated net sales up 3%, physical volumes up 5%, again exchange accounts with 2 points of difference. Looking at just the impact of exchange on overseas sales, in the second quarter as reported, sales were up 5%; at a constant exchange rate they would have been up 11%. Year to date as reported up 5% and at constant exchange rate up 12%. I'd just like to comment on a few other income statements items. First R&D, it's now in the quarter up 10%, again, we've talked for sometime about our growth initiatives and the heavy investments we're making in R&D because we have seen past investments in new price development, pay off, pay off handsomely. One of the strengths of our company, we believe, has been our consistent investment in new product development, good times, and bad times. Coming on the heels of a huge launch, huge product launch, in 1999, we have a record number of new product launches this year with over a 100 new products, round numbers it's 50, and AG and another 25 each in construction and commercial and consumer. We intend to use new price development to

為 7,500 萬，第四季為 1.65 億。去年的分拆是不尋常的，Timberjack 的月結週期與 Deere 不同。計劃向迪爾過渡，結果在第三季度，我們只恢復了兩個月的活動，在第四季度，我們恢復了四個月的活動，今年顯然，我們預計通常是三個月和三個月。繼續定價和交換。第二季度，綜合淨銷售額下降 3%，實物量下降 1%，交換造成了這兩點差異，我指出，這意味著淨定價（即價格上漲）與折扣持平。環境非常困難。年初至今，綜合淨銷售額成長 3%，實物量成長 5%，交換帳戶再次出現 2 個百分點的差異。僅考慮匯率對海外銷售的影響，據報道，第二季銷售額成長了 5%；以固定匯率計算，它們將上漲 11%。據報告，年初至今上漲 5%，以固定匯率計算上漲 12%。我只想評論一下其他一些損益表項目。首先是研發，現在這個季度成長了 10%，我們已經討論過我們的成長計畫和我們在研發方面的大量投資，因為我們已經看到了過去在新價格開發方面的投資，回報，回報帥氣地。我們相信，我們公司的優勢之一是我們對新產品開發的持續投資，無論是順境或逆境。繼 1999 年大規模發布、大規模產品發布之後，我們今年的新產品發布數量創紀錄，超過 100 個新產品，總數達到 50 個，AG 和另外 25 個在建築和商業領域消費者。我們打算利用新的價格發展來

continue to build on our lead in our existing markets and to broaden into new products and geographic segments, so you see a commitment to R&D. During last year, we began increasing that investments rate and so you've seen a pretty large year-over-year gain in R&D expenses. In the first quarter, you have seen it narrowing to about 10% and it'll settle back as you move through the rest of the year. For the full year, we see R&D expenditures up in the range of 5-10%. SG&A up 9% in the quarter or 26 million, but the consolidations of the acquisitions accounts were all of the increase. So the full year, again we think that SG&A will also be up in the range of 5-10%, and I might mention that our previous projections had built SG&A and R&D up 10% for the full year. So you do see a slight flattening back on some of those expenditures, again a very major commitment to new product efforts, but trying to manage appropriately in the current environment. Lower pension and post employment benefits expense, this is a category we've been talking about for the last 2 years, in the second quarter there was an additional pretax benefit of about $7 million for the full year. The benefit is now projected to be 63 million, previous estimate was at about 55 million and that leads year-over-year about a $15 million benefit in each of the third and fourth quarters. Interest expense is higher, it's about 27 million in the quarter, the main driver, of course, would be the higher debt levels associated with the acquisition. Going forward, you're probably looking at increases in the $10-15 range per quarter. Tax rate is 38.5% and that's as projected, and as is our custom, that rate year-to-date reflects the current forecast for the full year.

繼續鞏固我們在現有市場的領先地位，並擴展到新產品和地理細分市場，因此您將看到我們對研發的承諾。去年，我們開始提高投資率，因此您可以看到研發費用比去年同期大幅成長。在第一季度，你會看到它縮小到 10% 左右，隨著今年剩餘時間的推移，它會穩定下來。就全年而言，我們預計研發支出將成長 5-10%。本季的銷售、管理及行政費用 (SG&A) 成長 9%，即 2,600 萬，但所有成長均來自收購帳戶的合併。因此，我們再次認為全年 SG&A 也將成長 5-10%，我可能會提到，我們先前的預測使全年 SG&A 和研發成長了 10%。因此，您確實會看到其中一些支出略有下降，這又是對新產品工作的重大承諾，但試圖在當前環境下進行適當管理。較低的退休金和離職後福利支出，這是我們過去兩年一直在談論的一個類別，第二季度全年額外增加了約700萬美元的稅前福利。目前預計效益將達到 6,300 萬，先前的估計約為 5,500 萬，這使得第三季和第四季每年的效益同比約為 1,500 萬美元。利息支出較高，本季約 2,700 萬美元，主要推動因素當然是與收購相關的較高債務水準。展望未來，您可能會看到每季 10-15 美元的漲幅。稅率為 38.5%，這是預計的，而且按照我們的慣例，年初至今的稅率反映了目前對全年的預測。

The details on the other category of operating profit, this is one that is listed as other, made up of two items, the first designed in special technologies. In the second quarter, it was loss of 13.8 million, again on an operating profit basis that compares to a loss of 14 million a year ago. Health care was income of 4.3 million compared to 3.5 million a year ago. Let's move on to a couple of balance sheet items. The first would be receivables. Receivables are higher year-over-year by about 179 million. AG is up about 200 million. Construction is actually down about 50 million, and commercial and consumer is up around 25 million. Our forecast is that we will end the year flat with the year ago level, so end 31 October at about same level as a year ago. Inventory is up about 296 million. AG in round numbers is up about 175 million, construction equipment about 50, and commercial and consumer about 50. The forecast for our company owned inventories is that we will end the year with those down 150-200 million over a year ago level. Commercial and consumer accounts were about 100-150 of the decline in construction in the balance. The key point here is again evidence of our intent to manage our assets. Our original outlook had the combination of receivables and inventories growing by about $100 million this year. You now see that we're targeting a decline of 150-200 million. In summary then, it's evident all 3 equipment markets

關於營業利潤其他類別的詳細信息，這是列為其他類別的詳細信息，由兩個項目組成，第一個項目採用特殊技術設計。第二季度，該公司虧損 1,380 萬美元，同樣以營業利潤計算，而一年前則虧損 1,400 萬美元。醫療保健收入為 430 萬，而一年前為 350 萬。讓我們繼續討論幾個資產負債表項目。第一個是應收帳款。應收帳款較去年增加約1.79億美元。 AG上漲約2億。建築業實際上減少了​​約 5000 萬，商業和消費增加了約 2500 萬。我們的預測是，年底時的水平將與去年同期持平，因此到 10 月 31 日結束時的水平與去年同期大致相同。庫存增加約2.96億。 AG 的數量增加了約 1.75 億，建築設備約 50，商業和消費設備約 50。我們公司擁有的庫存的預測是，我們將在年底比去年同期減少 150-2 億。商業和消費者帳戶的建築餘額下降約100-150。這裡的關鍵點再次證明了我們管理資產的意圖。我們最初的預期是今年應收帳款和存貨總計成長約 1 億美元。您現在看到，我們的目標是減少 150-2 億。綜上所述，這三個設備市場顯而易見

are being affected by the weak economic environment and the change is most pronounced; of course, for the commercial and consumer equipments division and the constructions equipment division. So what are we doing in response? First, very aggressive asset management. The first evidence you see of that was the initial decision to cut production that we made back in mid March. This was unprecedented for our company and all three equipment divisions, the decision to pull in production ahead to the prime selling season. And now, of course, as things as things have got transpired, we're making further adjustments. You'll see the production cuts at Waterloo and then you'll see construction equipments responding through estimate-to-cash order-fulfillment procedure as well as the commercial consumer. These changes in production schedules are then reflected in the forecast of physical volumes for the full year. We're now saying that as reported it will be flat for the full year and without acquisitions, and these will be the acquisitions taken out of both 2000 and 2001, we would be down 3%. The previous estimate that we had, with the 21st of March press release was that physical volume would the up 7% for the year and without acquisitions, up 4%. One indication of the impact of some of these schedule cuts can be derived. You can take a look at what is happening with the tonnage, now tonnage is not a perfect measure as you'll know, you get into mix issues and all sorts of things, but I think it does help at least give an indication, directionally of what's happening and our tonnage, just as I implied, does not include Timberjack. For the full year, we were saying worldwide AG tonnage would be up 7%, we're now saying up 5. The commercial and consumer equipment originally and we were saying down

受經濟環境疲弱影響，變化最明顯；當然，對於商業和消費設備部門以及建築設備部門來說。那麼我們正在採取什麼措施來應對呢？首先，非常激進的資產管理。您看到的第一個證據是我們在三月中旬做出的最初減產決定。對於我們公司和所有三個設備部門來說，這是前所未有的，決定在黃金銷售季節之前拉動生產。當然，現在隨著事情的發展，我們正在做出進一步的調整。您將看到滑鐵盧的減產，然後您將看到建築設備透過估算到現金訂單履行程序以及商業消費者做出回應。這些生產計劃的變化將反映在全年實際產量的預測中。我們現在說，正如報導的那樣，全年業績將持平，並且沒有收購，而且這些收購都是從 2000 年和 2001 年進行的，我們將下降 3%。我們先前在 3 月 21 日新聞稿中的估計是，今年實體交易量將成長 7%，如果沒有收購，則成長 4%。可以得出其中一些時間表削減的影響的一種跡象。你可以看看噸位發生了什麼，現在噸位並不是一個完美的衡量標準，你會遇到混合問題和各種各樣的事情，但我認為它至少有助於提供一個指示，方向性的正如我所暗示的，正在發生的事情和我們的噸位不包括伐木工。對於全年，我們說全球 AG 噸位將成長 7%，現在我們說成長 5%。商業和消費設備最初我們說下降

7% and that really reflected, as we talked about earlier, the impact of commercial order-fulfillment, we are now saying, it will be down 23% in terms of weight of what they produce. In construction equipment, we were saying up 5%, we're now saying down 13%, again this did not include Timberjack. Total for the company up 3%, we are now saying down 5%. In the quarter that's coming up, the third quarter, we expect physical volume to be down 11% with acquisitions down 15% without. Tonnage down 19%, production cuts the impact income the short run. We do expect to remain profitable for the year, but do not expect to achieve last year's level of income, and I will direct you to the press release. We specifically side operating margins, saying that the third quarter will be under significant pressure. This is operating margin that we're talking about, not operating profit. Last year in the third quarter, margins were 8%, significance means it could be half that this year. In the fourth quarter of last year, you'll recall we had a very difficult quarter, and so we've been saying at this point, remember we're going to have an easy comparison in the fourth quarter. I think it's pretty evident with what's happening with production changes etc., that that comparison is no longer looking so easy, and I wouldn't look for much improvement. We remain committed in our schedule to deliver a record number of exciting new products this year, that's very important to the future of this company. We've got technology that promises to enhance customer productivity and further strengthen our pre-eminent competitive position in the marketplace. We believe that this consistent approach to price development will serve our shareholders well in the coming years.

7%，正如我們之前談到的，這確實反映了商業訂單履行的影響，我們現在說，就其生產的重量而言，它將下降 23%。在建築設備方面，我們之前說成長了 5%，現在說下降了 13%，這同樣不包括伐木工人。公司總計上漲 3%，我們現在說下跌 5%。在即將到來的第三季度，我們預計實物交易量將下降 11%，其中收購量將下降 15%。噸位下降19%，產量減少短期內影響收入。我們確實預計今年將保持盈利，但預計不會達到去年的收入水平，我將引導您查看新聞稿。我們特別關注營業利潤率，並表示第三季將面臨巨大壓力。我們談論的是營業利潤率，而不是營業利益。去年第三季度，利潤率為 8%，這意味著今年可能會減少一半。在去年第四季度，你會記得我們度過了一個非常困難的季度，所以我們在這一點上一直在說，記住我們將在第四季度進行一個簡單的比較。我認為，生產變化等所發生的情況非常明顯，這種比較看起來不再那麼容易，而且我不會尋求太大的改進。我們仍然致力於在今年推出創紀錄數量的令人興奮的新產品，這對公司的未來非常重要。我們擁有的技術有望提高客戶的生產力並進一步增強我們在市場上的卓越競爭地位。我們相信，這種一致的價格製定方法將在未來幾年為我們的股東帶來良好的服務。

And with that, we'll open for Q&A. The operator will give us instructions on the polling procedures. As usual, I will ask you to have one question and then a related followup, and you're welcome to get back in the queue. We should have plenty of time for questions. Our operator will now give us instructions.

接下來，我們將開始問答環節。接線員將向我們提供有關投票程序的說明。像往常一樣，我會請您提出一個問題，然後提出相關的後續問題，歡迎您回到隊列中。我們應該有充足的時間提問。我們的操作員現在將給我們指示。

If you'd like to ask a question at this time, please press the '*1' on your touchtone phone. Again, to ask a question, press '*1' on your touchtone phone. Our first question is from John Inch with Bear Stearns.

如果您此時想提問，請按按鍵式電話上的「*1」。同樣，要提問，請按按鍵式電話上的「*1」。我們的第一個問題來自貝爾斯登的約翰·英奇。

Good morning, Marie.

早安，瑪麗。

Hi, John.

你好，約翰。

Hi. My first question is on Timberjack, and I'm just wondering, based on the lower numbers and the industry pressure, what is our estimate for a dilution for Timberjack this year and what was it?

你好。我的第一個問題是關於 Timberjack 的，我只是想知道，根據較低的數字和行業壓力，我們對 Timberjack 今年稀釋的估計是多少？是多少？

We actually had said that we thought Timberjack would become accretive in the first full year of ownership, which would have started than with the third quarter. We didn't say that we would be accretive in the third quarter, but over that 12-month period. John, clearly I think that slit a little and you're probably looking at a couple of more cents for the full year in terms of additional dilution.

事實上，我們曾說過，我們認為 Timberjack 將在所有權的第一個全年中變得增值，這將比第三季開始。我們並沒有說我們會在第三季度實現成長，而是在這 12 個月期間實現成長。約翰，顯然我認為這有點小，你可能會在全年額外稀釋方面看到更多美分。

Predicted full year a couple of times?

多次預測全年？

Couple of times, yeah.

幾次了，是的。

Okay, and then my followup question Marie is, in 90% orders, I'm not quite sure if you could provide a little bit more color in terms of how we should think about your 90% booking and how that would compare to last year? I'm just trying to put it in a bit of a context, for how to think about your forecast.

好的，然後我的後續問題瑪麗是，在 90% 的訂單中，我不太確定您是否可以提供更多信息，說明我們應該如何考慮您的 90% 預訂以及與去年相比如何？我只是想把它放在一定的背景下，以便如何思考你的預測。

Well, in this case, specifically we're talking about combines.

好吧，在這種情況下，我們具體討論的是組合。

Oh, I am sorry, okay.

哦，對不起，好吧。

That is specific to combines and I think what we're trying to say is we feel pretty good about the outlook for the entire year for combines, and trying to maybe make a contrast that in row crops things have not been quite as strong as we had anticipated. Last year, we would have. You know we have a goal on combines that we end the month of January with our order book, approximately 80%, round numbers, covered, and that would include sales that have been made in November, December, January and then retail orders. We have an early order program to that effect. Basically, last year we would have been not quite as strong with that kind of coverage, but more significantly last year, in the first six months, we didn't have a lot of availability of the new combines and we do this year. We certainly expect that we'll be up very attractively for the full year in combines and I just want to caution people that these are not seasonally important months, and combine sales are running very, very strong.

這是針對聯合收割機的，我認為我們想說的是，我們對聯合收割機全年的前景感到非常好，並試圖與行間作物的情況進行對比，情況並不像我們那麼強勁。已經預料到了。去年，我們會的。您知道，我們的聯合收割機目標是，我們在 1 月結束時將訂單簿覆蓋，大約 80%（整數），其中包括 11 月、12 月、1 月的銷售以及零售訂單。為此，我們有一個提前訂購計劃。基本上，去年我們的覆蓋範圍不會那麼強大，但更重要的是去年，在前六個月，我們沒有大量可用的新聯合收割機，而今年我們有。我們當然預計全年聯合收割機的銷量將非常有吸引力，我只是想提醒人們，這些月份不是季節性重要的月份，聯合收割機的銷售非常非常強勁。

90% for combines, do you put out numbers for the row crop or 4-wheel drive?

聯合收割機為 90%，您是否給出了中耕作物或四輪驅動的數字？

No, I don't have those numbers. I can just anecdotally tell you that a year ago on row crops, remember we were running that valued customer certificate, which although not a specific early order program, acted like one, and we were still delivering products on row crops under that program early in August and September of last year. We have nothing similar this year, so you would see a different position. It would not be as strong and again that's reflected in the production.

不，我沒有這些數字。我可以有趣地告訴你，一年前，在行作物方面，請記住，我們正在運行該寶貴的客戶證書，儘管不是特定的早期訂單計劃，但其作用就像一個，而且我們仍在該計劃的早期階段提供行作物產品。去年8月和9月。今年我們沒有類似的情況，所以你會看到不同的位置。它不會像製作中所反映的那樣強烈。

Understood, thank you.

明白了，謝謝。

Our next question is from David Bleustein with UBS Warburg.

我們的下一個問題來自瑞銀華寶 (UBS Warburg) 的大衛布魯斯坦 (David Bleustein)。

Good morning, Marie.

早安，瑪麗。

Good morning.

早安.

Marie, additional R&D spending, additional SG&A spending, and John Deere special technologies chiming in with $14 million loss, the question is, when do you expect to see John Deere special technologies provide a return on the investments?

Marie，額外的研發支出、額外的 SG&A 支出以及約翰迪爾特殊技術造成了 1400 萬美元的損失，問題是，您預計何時看到約翰迪爾特殊技術提供投資回報？

John Deere technologies is providing return on the investment. This is really heavy-duty research and development for the company, and we are using them to enhance the value of the products in the core AG and construction equipment, and commercial and consumer equipment markets. They are meeting our expectations in terms of what kind of future, exciting product opportunities they are helping us incorporate into our new R&D plans. I don't know how else to answer you. Those businesses are continuing to perform well and do what they were intended to do. You just need to look at them as R&D, frankly. And the other thing is bear in mind that a portion of the R&D that they engage in is actually more than half, it's actually covered and outside funded. So, we're able to leverage that technology investments being made to the benefit of Deere.

約翰迪爾技術正在提供投資回報。這對公司來說確實是一項艱鉅的研發工作，我們正在利用它們來提高核心 AG 和建築設備以及商業和消費設備市場的產品價值。他們滿足了我們對未來的期望，他們正在幫助我們將令人興奮的產品機會納入我們的新研發計劃。我不知道還能怎樣回答你。這些企業繼續表現良好，並做他們想做的事情。坦白說，你只需將它們視為研發。另一件事是請記住，他們從事的研發實際上有一半以上，它實際上是由外部資助的。因此，我們能夠利用這些技術投資來造福迪爾。

Right. And the followup is, you mentioned that SG&A and R&D spending wages have been trimmed somewhat, 5-10% from 10, what types of programs may be postponed?

正確的。接下來是，您提到SG&A和研發支出工資有所削減，從10%削減5-10%，哪些類型的項目可能會被推遲？

I wouldn't care to talk about specific products. But I can tell you that the theme around here is if you don't need to take a business trip, don't. We are trying to dock what's our product program on things that we have some flexibility competitively, maybe we'll delay that a little bit, but nothing wholesale yet, but I think it's more an indication of the mindset around here.

我不想談論具體的產品。但我可以告訴你，這裡的主題是，如果你不需要出差，就不要出差。我們正在嘗試將我們的產品計劃與我們具有一定競爭力的靈活性的東西對接，也許我們會推遲一點，但還沒有批發，但我認為這更多地表明了這裡的心態。

What would it take to make it a wholesale cost-cutting program? I mean, how bad would things have to get before......................

怎樣才能使其成為大規模成本削減計劃？我的意思是，事情會變得多糟............

I don't think I can speculate on that. And again, I emphasize that R&D is important to the company, it's been one of our strengths that we have continued to invest to deliver new products, really in good times and bad times, and that is one of the reasons, David, why we believe, we've had this nice long margin of market share.

我想我不能對此進行推測。我再次強調，研發對公司很重要，無論順境或逆境，我們都持續投資以提供新產品，這一直是我們的優勢之一，這就是大衛，我們為什麼要這樣做的原因之一。相信，我們已經擁有瞭如此長的市場份額。

That's it, Marie. Thanks a lot.

就是這樣，瑪麗。多謝。

Thank you.

謝謝。

Our next question is from Gary McManus with JP Morgan Securities.

我們的下一個問題來自摩根大通證券的加里·麥克馬納斯。

Hi, Marie.

嗨，瑪麗。

Hi, Gary.

嗨，加里。

Would you talk a little bit, I mean, I know you went through the inventories and receivables by segment, but it looks like in row crop tractors are kind of flattish in your fiscal year in the first half, so I don't know what your expectations were, but doesn't seem to be that bad. Were you anticipating greater share gains that, you know, you took one week and in the second quarter you're going to take another week down, I'm just wondering what went wrong in the row crop tractor market that caused you to take these unscheduled down [_______________]?

你能談談嗎，我的意思是，我知道你按部門查看了庫存和應收賬款，但看起來中耕作物拖拉機在你的財政年度上半年表現平平，所以我不知道是什麼你的期望是，但似乎並沒有那麼糟。您是否預計更大的份額收益，您知道，您花了一周的時間，而在第二季度，您將再花一周的時間，我只是想知道中耕作物拖拉機市場出了什麼問題，導致您採取了這些措施計劃外的下降 [_______________]？

Really, you're absolutely correct. Sales have not been as strong as we had projected, as we had hoped for our own activities to be blunt, and that we're still up, so I don't want you to think it's a disaster, it's not. We're still seeing that our year-to-date selling activity has been ahead of a year ago. It's just not as strong as it was.

真的，你說得完全正確。銷售並沒有我們預期的那麼強勁，因為我們希望我們自己的活動能夠直率，而且我們仍然在營業，所以我不想讓你認為這是一場災難，事實並非如此。我們仍然看到我們今年迄今為止的銷售活動已經領先一年前。只是沒有以前那麼強大了。

It is up because......................

之所以上來是因為………………

You are still gaining to your bottom line.

你仍在接近你的底線。

The overall industry is weaker than expected or you're not gaining as much share?

整個行業弱於預期，或者您沒有獲得那麼多份額？

We're not gaining as much share. And remember, we're coming off with very strong share gains from last year.

我們沒有獲得那麼多份額。請記住，我們去年的份額成長非常強勁。

Right, but again I would think some of the inventory reduction you expect for the second half in farm equipment, does it include additional production shutdown, other than this one week you've talked about?

是的，但我再次認為，除了您談論的這一周之外，您預計下半年農業設備的庫存減少是否包括額外的生產停工？

No, I think what you're seeing there is just we had a little bit, our production schedules were higher in the first and second quarters, and then they will be going forward in the third and fourth. There is always a possibility that there will be additional shutdowns, but that's really not the issue, right now is really the way the bill schedules were put together.

不，我認為你所看到的只是我們有一點，我們的生產計劃在第一季和第二季更高，然後他們將在第三和第四季繼續推進。總是有可能會出現額外的關閉，但這實際上不是問題，現在實際上是帳單時間表的製定方式。

Okay, and you gave the third quarter you said physical volumes down 13% ex-acquisitions, can you break that up by segment or the tonnage by segment?

好的，您提到第三季的實體交易量除收購外下降了 13%，您能按細分市場或按細分市場的噸位細分嗎？

For the third quarter, I don't have it by segments. I would say it would be fair to certainly think about some pretty big declines out certainly in construction and in commercial and consumer.

對於第三季度，我沒有按部門劃分。我想說，考慮到建築業、商業和消費業的一些相當大的下降是公平的。

So AG less than 15% maybe the other two greater than 15%?

那麼 AG 小於 15% 也許其他兩個大於 15%？

Yes.

是的。

Okay, thanks.

好的謝謝。

Our next question from David Raso with Salomon Smith Barney.

我們的下一個問題來自大衛·拉索 (David Raso) 和所羅門美邦 (Salomon Smith Barney)。

Hi Marie, it's David here.

嗨，瑪麗，我是大衛。

Hi, David.

嗨，大衛。

Hi, quick question with 2001, I guess you're roughly looking at some like ¢30 for the third quarter and some like little more than 30 for fourth, this year is obviously bit of a loss for this year. Trying to prepare for fiscal 2002, I wanted to make sure on the inventory number you gave for AG up 175 million year-over-year presently, for the inventory numbers also going to draw it down you didn't mentioned AG. Can you just little hang on when the new products are supposed to be released, some of your dealers have told me the product might not be available for early next year, so I think if you're working the inventory down with the old products getting there for next year. Can you just give a hang on where you think the AG inventory will be year-over-year ahead in 2002?

你好，快速問一下 2001 年的問題，我想你大概會看到第三季度的一些像 30 英鎊，第四季度的一些像 30 多一點，今年顯然是今年的虧損。為了準備 2002 財年，我想確定您為 AG 提供的庫存數字目前同比增長了 1.75 億，因為庫存數字也會減少，您沒有提到 AG。當新產品應該發佈時，你能稍微堅持一下嗎？你們的一些經銷商告訴我，該產品可能不會在明年初上市，所以我認為，如果你正在減少庫存，同時舊產品也會上市明年在那裡。您能透露一下您認為 2002 年 AG 庫存將年增多少嗎？

Sure, first of all, I need to go back and tell you that we do not publish a forecast on our earnings. I can't endorse the numbers you threw out as...........

當然，首先，我需要回去告訴你，我們不會發布獲利預測。我不能認同你拋出的數字...

As far as [_______________] we're behind this year.

就 [_______________] 而言，我們今年落後了。

Secondly, for AG, we had significant inventory reductions really in 1999, and then again with our used equipment in 2000, and so we're comfortable with the ending inventory levels that would be flattish in AG. In terms of the timing of the new product introduction, you are correct. Some of those new products won't be available. We told the dealers that we're going to be managing through a transition. They won't really start shipping until into the first quarter, so there will be a period of transition there and that again makes it more important to manage given products inventory more carefully.

其次，對於 AG 來說，我們在 1999 年確實大幅減少了庫存，然後在 2000 年我們的二手設備再次減少了庫存，因此我們對 AG 的最終庫存水平持平感到滿意。就新產品推出的時間而言，你是對的。其中一些新產品將無法上市。我們告訴經銷商，我們將進行過渡。他們要到第一季才會真正開始出貨，因此會有一段過渡期，這再次使得更仔細地管理給定產品庫存變得更加重要。

Okay, I'll get back in the queue. Thank you.

好的，我會回到隊列中。謝謝。

Thank-you.

謝謝。

Our next question is from John McGinty with Credit Suisse First Boston.

我們的下一個問題來自瑞士信貸第一波士頓的約翰·麥金蒂。

Good morning, Marie.

早安，瑪麗。

Good morning, John.

早安，約翰。

I just had a question, kind of a followup on Gary's question about farm equipment. I guess the question is, when we look at retail sales in the month of April, which is A. A very important month, B. One of the toughest comparisons out there, we have been, the retailers have also been, kind of, disappointing for the last several months and all of a sudden against the very tough comparison, the industry blows through the year ago up 12%, you guys were up even better than that, how do you explain that? Was your production the next week in production schedule cuts made up before you saw that number, I mean, to what extent are we vulnerable to being whipsawed here?

我只是有一個問題，是加里關於農場設備問題的後續問題。我想問題是，當我們看四月份的零售額時，這是 A. 非常重要的一個月，B. 最艱難的比較之一，我們，零售商也，過去幾個月令人失望，突然之間，與非常艱難的比較相比，該行業去年同期上漲了12％，你們的漲幅甚至比這還要好，您對此有何解釋？在你看到這個數字之前，你下週的生產計劃削減是否已經完成，我的意思是，我們在多大程度上容易受到衝擊？

First of all, John, I think how we explain it is the fact that it was in part with a very cold wet March and so some activities that would normally have occurred in March probably did get postponed into April. We were certainly working with out dealers to try to get and make sure that they would have products available when the customer needed it. As you saw, spring planing conditions started to delay. In terms, of course, is it possible that we could get whipsawed? Yes, it's possible. We certainly have flexibility in the second half of the year that turns out the row crops tractor market as stronger than anticipated and that would be a nice problem to have at this point, though I would say that we still feel pretty strongly. We're looking at the economic fundamentals we see in environments that says industry sales will be flat, up slightly overall from farming equipment and you may get some adjustments seen in any individual categories. Right now, it's possible.

首先，約翰，我認為我們如何解釋這一事實是因為三月天氣非常寒冷潮濕，因此一些通常在三月進行的活動可能確實被推遲到四月。我們當然正在與經銷商合作，試圖獲得並確保他們在客戶需要時能夠提供產品。正如您所看到的，春季播種條件開始延遲。當然，就我們而言，我們是否有可能受到雙重打擊？是的，這是可能的。我們當然在下半年有彈性，結果顯示中耕作物拖拉機市場比預期強勁，這將是一個很好的問題，儘管我想說我們仍然感覺非常強烈。我們正在研究我們在環境中看到的經濟基本面，這些環境表明行業銷售將持平，農業設備總體略有上升，您可能會在任何單一類別中看到一些調整。現在，這是可能的。

Obviously, even with comps, it gets easier as the year goes ahead, but this is my followup that there is a line in your press release that strikes fear into my heart, you did not mention it, it's the one that used equipment inventories are now slightly higher than a year ago and that gets us back to the issue of pricing, are you in your planning purposes for the third quarter margin being down significantly obviously part of its volume, but are we also looking at having to start throwing out discounting for the used equipment, is that in the planning or what's your thought there?

顯然，即使有比較，隨著時間的推移，它也會變得更容易，但這是我的後續行動，你的新聞稿中有一句話讓我心裡感到恐懼，你沒有提到它，這是二手設備庫存的那句話現在比一年前略高，這讓我們回到定價問題，您是否在計劃第三季度利潤率明顯下降其銷量的一部分，但我們是否也在考慮必須開始放棄折扣對於二手設備，這是在計劃中還是您有什麼想法？

While we have told our dealers obviously that's not our objective to have to have heavy discounts and we're working to try to avoid that, but we felt that it was important to make you aware of the fact that with the very high level of retail activity we've had in the first half of the year and for the year, we have seen those used inventories increase slightly over a year ago levels and, of course, as you know we ended last year with inventories down like year-over-year about 240 million. It's not in the planning, but it's something that bears careful watching, and I can assure you that we will be and we very determined to end with flat inventory.

雖然我們已經告訴我們的經銷商，顯然我們的目標不是必須提供大幅折扣，並且我們正在努力避免這種情況，但我們認為讓您意識到這一事實很重要，即零售水平非常高我們在今年上半年和今年的活動中，我們看到這些二手庫存比一年前的水平略有增加，當然，正如你所知，我們去年的庫存同比下降了-年約2.4億。這不在計劃中，但值得仔細觀察，我可以向您保證，我們將並且非常決心以持平庫存結束。

Thank-you.

謝謝。

Our next question is from [_______________] Dean Witter.

我們的下一個問題來自 [_______________] 添惠 (Dean Witter)。

Hi Marie.

嗨瑪麗。

Hi.

你好。

Can you give us a sense of this used inventories build and what you mean by it, slightly?

您能否讓我們了解二手庫存的情況以及您的意思？

Maybe 25 million, it's not a big number. It's really the fact that it's up slightly versus having being down quite a bit at the start of the year.

也許2500萬，這並不是一個大數字。事實上，與年初大幅下跌相比，現在略有上漲。

And last year you did have the, kind of, come up with some extra selling initiatives to get those moved, right?

去年，您確實提出了一些額外的銷售措施來推動這些活動，對吧？

Yes, last year we started 2000 with our new goods inventories in pretty good shape to the overall marketing conditions, and then we were concerned with used equipments, and so really the story of last year was ongoing incentive, one form or another, to lower those used good inventories, and we don't have similar kinds of programs on this year, and again we're hoping that with what's happened in the market place and the fact that our dealers, we believe, are trading better reflecting end market prices in their trade in that we will be successful, but nonetheless the situation bears watching.

是的，去年我們從2000 年開始，我們的新商品庫存對於整體行銷狀況來說狀況良好，然後我們專注於二手設備，所以去年的故事實際上是持續的激勵，以一種或另一種形式，以降低那些使用了良好的庫存，今年我們沒有類似的計劃，我們再次希望，隨著市場上發生的情況以及我們相信我們的經銷商的交易能夠更好地反映終端市場價格我們將在他們的貿易中取得成功，但情況仍值得關注。

What about, what you're seeing in terms of void residual values and so forth on the lease portfolio, things like that, is there anything to comment on that?

那麼，您在租賃組合中看到的無效殘值等方面的情況怎麼樣，對此有什麼可評論的嗎？

Yes, I am pleased to report they're stable. That means the things on both tractors and combines has been down about 20% from where they were in July 1998 and things continue to be stable, but the fact that there are some lease returns coming certainly is again a situation that needs watching. Things are moving well. We've taken additional depreciation in the credit company reflecting what's happened to the used equipment values so that those leases are properly priced and so far so good.

是的，我很高興地報告它們很穩定。這意味著拖拉機和聯合收割機的銷量比 1998 年 7 月的水平下降了約 20%，並且情況繼續穩定，但事實上，確實有一些租賃回報即將到來，這一情況再次值得關注。事情進展順利。我們對信貸公司進行了額外的折舊，以反映二手設備價值的變化，以便這些租賃定價合理，到目前為止效果良好。

Okay, and finally when you talked about higher sales incentive cost in the release just square that up with the fact that it looks like pressing this flattish, I think you said?

好吧，最後，當您談到版本中更高的銷售激勵成本時，只需將其與看起來扁平化的事實相匹配，我想您是這麼說的？

Higher sales incentive costs, well, we have list price increases add to the list price increases of about a point and a half, and so if you net over all for the company. If you net prices increases that were taken in all divisions over incentive, in all the divisions, it's next to zero. Higher sales incentives refers to the fact that the actual discounting rate is higher than it was a year ago and, of course, we talked about the fact that in construction equipment it's up like three points.

更高的銷售激勵成本，嗯，我們的標價上漲了大約一個半的標價上漲，所以如果你把公司的全部淨值計算在內的話。如果將所有部門的價格漲幅淨值超過激勵，那麼在所有部門中，價格漲幅接近零。更高的銷售誘因是指實際折扣率比一年前更高，當然，我們談到了建築設備中的折扣率上漲了大約三個百分點。

So it's a mix issue?

那麼這是一個混合問題嗎？

It will be somewhat of a mix issue.

這將是一個混合問題。

Okay, thank you.

好的謝謝。

Our next question is from Mark Koznarek with Midwest Research Maxus Group.

我們的下一個問題來自 Midwest Research Maxus Group 的 Mark Koznarek。

Hi, Marie.

嗨，瑪麗。

Hi Mark, and I will say it Koznarek.

嗨，馬克，我會說“Koznarek”。

Okay, thanks. Given that the rest of the year is going to be a challenge clearly the focus now is going to be on what could happen next year and clearly the markets are not under your control, but what is this new model introduction. Can you give us an idea of what percent of your sales these 100 new models represent? You know, is it a refreshing of 25% of the total line and then kind of the ancillary question, is are the production costs expected to be materially lower and is your price point going to be materially higher for these? Can we expect better margins on these products either from cost or price next year?

好的謝謝。鑑於今年剩下的時間顯然將是一個挑戰，現在的重點將是明年可能發生的事情，顯然市場不在你的控制之下，但這個新模型的推出是什麼。您能否告訴我們這 100 款新車型佔您銷售額的百分比是多少？你知道，這是總產線的 25% 的刷新，然後是一種附屬問題，生產成本預計會大幅降低，而你們的價格點是否會大幅提高？我們能否期望明年這些產品從成本或價格上獲得更好的利潤？

Good question. I'm looking right now for the percent of the product line. In terms of the profitability, yes, though the products will have improved profitability, that is the design goal. As you know, we are working very hard on supply management initiatives and those involve things like, supplier development, more decision ordering, in other words looking at the Deere entity instead of individual units, and one of the other key initiatives in part of supply management is designing cost out of product, and that is just critical. We think that's where the most permanent significant gains will be made and the supply management is working very hard with engineering together to look at things like, how much a product should cost, how to improve quality? We've maintained some flexibility with cost, so I can't give you a percentage decline. I can tell you that overall, we targeted about a 2% cost reduction per year. Last year, we actually did a little better than that. This year we're running maybe slightly behind that, but we're still working toward that 2% goal, and the new products would be important in reaching that, I can't give you numbers specifically for the new product themselves and we're not finding that number. I mean to tell you, it would be, we have many, many more products than just a 100, so maybe if you look in terms of absolute numbers, it wouldn't be that impressive, but if you look at the sales dollars, you'll easily going to get the 25-30% of sales dollars, given the magnitude of new product introduction.

好問題。我現在正在尋找產品線的百分比。就獲利能力而言，是的，雖然產品的獲利能力會提高，但這是設計目標。如您所知，我們正在非常努力地實施供應管理舉措，這些舉措涉及供應商開發、更多決策訂購等，換句話說，著眼於迪爾實體而不是單個單位，以及供應部分的其他關鍵舉措之一管理正在設計產品的成本，這是至關重要的。我們認為這將是最持久的重大收益的地方，供應管理正在與工程部門一起努力研究諸如產品應該花費多少、如何提高品質等問題。我們在成本方面保持了一定的靈活性，所以我不能告訴你下降的百分比。我可以告訴您，總體而言，我們的目標是每年降低 2% 的成本。去年，我們實際上做得比這好一點。今年我們的運行可能稍微落後於這個目標，但我們仍在努力實現 2% 的目標，新產品對於實現這一目標非常重要，我無法為您提供新產品本身的具體數字，我們'找不到那個號碼。我的意思是告訴你，我們有很多很多的產品，不僅僅是 100 種，所以如果你看絕對數字，可能不會那麼令人印象深刻，但如果你看銷售額，考慮到新產品推出的規模，您將輕鬆獲得25-30% 的銷售額。

Okay, and that's going to be mostly an 2002 story, very little ships.

好吧，這主要是 2002 年的故事，很少有船。

Very little ships. There are few construction equipment products that had shipped out yet this year, and then the big one that we talked about with the Spin-Steer tractor in commercial and consumer, but really everything else is 2002.

船隻很少。今年還沒有發貨的建築設備產品很少，然後是我們在商業和消費領域談論的旋轉轉向拖拉機的大產品，但實際上其他一切都是 2002 年的。

Alright, then can you comment on that part about pricing, would you expect to price these at an increase from the current like, kind of, pulse?

好吧，那麼您能評論一下有關定價的部分嗎？您是否希望將這些產品的定價比目前的價格上漲？

I'm sorry. The strategy that we've had for a long time, really almost throughout the decade of the 90's was that you can't count on the market for price increases, the cost reduction is critical and so we basically are designing to an inflationary type of increase, 2-3% per year, and then trying to improve the margin on the cost reduction with BT.

對不起。我們長期以來（幾乎整個 90 年代）的策略是，你不能指望市場價格上漲，降低成本至關重要，因此我們基本上正在設計一種通膨型的每年增加2-3%，然後嘗試透過BT 降低成本來提高利潤。

Okay, thanks Marie.

好的，謝謝瑪麗。

Our next question is from Joanna Shatney with Goldman Sachs.

我們的下一個問題來自高盛的喬安娜·沙特尼。

Hi, Marie, it's [_______________].

嗨，瑪麗，我是 [_______________]。

Hi, [_______________].

你好， [_______________]。

How much do you expect to under produce retail sales in all of your businesses in the third quarter and for the full fiscal year?

您預計第三季和整個財年所有業務的零售額將下降多少？

How much do we expect to under produce our retail sales? Well, the cliff now would be to say that we expect to hold overall receivables flat for the full year, and we've had a gain in receivables of round numbers 200 million, I don't have the exact numbers in front of me, and so in the second half we'd be looking for $200 million shift in receivables. But then you also have an impact on what we plan to do with inventory because some of the inventory contains finished goods and that would be a much larger impact in terms of production, and there you're probably looking at about $400 million swing.

我們預計零售額會低於多少？好吧，現在的懸崖意味著我們預計全年應收帳款總額持平，我們的應收帳款增加了 2 億左右，我面前沒有確切的數字，因此，下半年我們將尋求2 億美元的應收帳款轉移。但是，您也會對我們計劃如何處理庫存產生影響，因為某些庫存包含成品，這會對生產產生更大的影響，您可能會看到大約 4 億美元的波動。

Okay. Are looking for a couple of percentage points under retail there?

好的。是否正在尋求零售額下降幾個百分點？

I can only give you the absolute numbers. I haven't looked at what percentage points [_______________].

我只能給你絕對數字。我還沒看過多少百分點[_______________]。

Okay. My followup question is on Europe, saw some guidances coming down, how much of that is related to the diseases and how much of that is already weak underlying demand?

好的。我的後續問題是關於歐洲的，看到了一些指導意見的下降，其中有多少與疾病有關，其中有多少是已經疲軟的潛在需求？

That's a good question. I would have to say basically our original outlook set down 5% for Europe, and incrementally now we're saying down 10-15, so incrementally that's another 5-10%. Weather is maybe a couple of points declined, but the bulk of it is the uncertainty that's thrown into the market by the foot-and-mouth.

這是個好問題。我必須說，基本上我們最初對歐洲的預期下調了 5%，現在我們逐步下調了 10-15%，所以逐步下調了 5-10%。天氣可能會下降幾個點，但大部分是由口蹄疫給市場帶來的不確定性。

Thank-you.

謝謝。

Before we go on, I do have somewhat of an answer to Mark Koznarek's question on our new product introductions, how many. With the new additions that we're going to be bringing out this year, approximately three-fourths of our products will be updated or replaced over the last four years, that's pretty aggressive. And then our next question.

在我們繼續之前，我確實對馬克·科茲納雷克（Mark Koznarek）關於我們新產品介紹的問題有了一些答案，“有多少”。隨著我們今年將推出的新產品，我們大約四分之三的產品將在過去四年中更新或更換，這是相當激進的。然後我們的下一個問題。

Our next question is from Patricia Yee with Dresdner Kleinwort Investments.

我們的下一個問題來自 Dresdner Kleinwort Investments 的 Patricia Yee。

Hi, Marie.

嗨，瑪麗。

Hi, Patricia.

嗨，帕特里夏。

Just a housekeeping item. When you discussed the April AG retail, did you make any mention about the industry inventories, months of inventories, and your inventories relative to that?

只是一個家務用品。當您討論 4 月份 AG 零售時，您是否提到了行業庫存、月份庫存以及與此相關的庫存？

No I did not, but I would be happy to.

不，我沒有，但我很樂意這樣做。

Okay.

好的。

As soon as I find the sheet of paper, here we go. Let's see, for utility tractors, now these are not for April these will be for the month of March, and the industry is at 56% of trailing 12-month sales and Deere would be less than that. For row crop tractors, the industry is at 46% and Deere is less than that. 4-wheel drive, the industry is at 43% and we're a little higher. And for combines, the industry is 27% and we are below that.

我一找到那張紙，就開始吧。讓我們看看，對於多用途拖拉機，現在這些不是 4 月份的，而是 3 月份的，該行業佔過去 12 個月銷售額的 56%，而迪爾將低於這個數字。對於中耕作物拖拉機，該行業的比例為 46%，而迪爾則低於該比例。四輪驅動，產業為 43%，我們略高一些。對於聯合收割機來說，該行業的比例為 27%，而我們低於這個數字。

Okay, thank you.

好的謝謝。

Thank-you. 0:55:42 CONFERENCE SERVICE OPERATOR: Our next question is from Joel Tiss with Lehman Brothers.

謝謝。 0:55:42 會議服務接線生：我們的下一個問題來自雷曼兄弟的 Joel Tiss。

Joel.

喬爾.

Mr. Tiss, please check the mute switch on your phone.

蒂斯先生，請檢查您手機上的靜音開關。

It's alright, we can move on to Barry Bannister.

沒關係，我們可以轉向巴瑞·班尼斯特。

Hi, Marie. This is Barry, how are you?

嗨，瑪麗。我是巴里，你好嗎？

Fine. How are you Barry?

美好的。巴里你好嗎？

Good. To drill a little deeper on your change in the international AG forecast. Deere has been down 5% in international AG for quite a long time, particularly in Europe, and it seems like a very bearish departure to be down 10 or 15 towards, what was not a bad second quarter on worldwide non-North American AG, what I'm trying to figure out is if there was an inventory build or was manhunt slow to respond, and it's more of a wholesale problem than a retail problem in Europe in the second half, in your current forecast?

好的。更深入了解國際 AG 預測的變化。迪爾公司的國際股份公司在很長一段時間裡一直下跌 5%，特別是在歐洲，下跌 10 或 15 美元似乎是一個非常悲觀的離去，全球非北美股份公司的第二季度表現還不錯，我想弄清楚的是，在你目前的預測中，下半年歐洲是否有庫存增加或搜捕反應緩慢的問題，這更多的是批發問題，而不是零售問題？

Deere has continued to perform very well. My forecast is really an industry forecast that's down 10-15%, and actually thank you for giving me the opportunity to clarify it a little. Although we hope to remedy this right someday with some of our new product introductions, we do not have the share with the livestock farmer that others in the markets would, and so for Deere the impact of foot-and-mouth has not been as great. Everybody has been impacted. But, we haven't been as impacted as, perhaps, others in the industry would have been. So again, Barry, I was giving you an industry outlook. Inventories in Europe are in good shape.

迪爾繼續表現出色。我的預測實際上是下降 10-15% 的行業預測，實際上感謝您給我機會進行澄清。儘管我們希望有一天透過推出一些新產品來糾正這個問題，但我們與畜牧農民的份額不如市場上的其他公司，因此對於迪爾來說，口蹄疫的影響並沒有那麼大。每個人都受到了影響。但是，我們可能沒有像業內其他公司那樣受到影響。巴里，我再次向您介紹了行業前景。歐洲的庫存狀況良好。

I know it's a departure, but could you differentiate between your inventories and agriculture in international versus North America. How they changed, year-to-date, on a total basis, year-over-year?

我知道這是一個偏離，但你能區分國際和北美的庫存和農業嗎？今年迄今為止，總體上與去年同期相比，它們有何變化？

We don't have the same kinds of financing terms with our AG dealers internationally as we would in the United States. In North America, if you look year-over-year, you would certainly see that receivables are a bit higher. Overseas AG is very, very little and, frankly, would just reflect some of the new activity we have going on, not so much in Europe but in other parts of the world.

我們與國際上的 AG 經銷商沒有與美國相同的融資條款。在北美，如果你逐年查看，你肯定會發現應收帳款高一些。海外股份公司規模非常非常小，坦白說，它只是反映了我們正在進行的一些新活動，不是在歐洲，而是在世界其他地區。

Okay, so overseas is up very little. Thanks.

好吧，所以海外漲得很少。謝謝。

Our next question is from Joel Tiss with Lehman Brothers.

我們的下一個問題來自雷曼兄弟的喬爾·蒂斯。

Good morning. Sorry for the confusion before.

早安.抱歉之前造成的混亂。

No problem.

沒問題。

In terms of the growth, where 4-wheel drive and 100 horsepower plus tractor sales over the past two decades has declined, and with some foreign consolidation one would think the sales of larger machines would have actually resulted. But the trend has been for sales of smaller machines, which actually have increased, the question is, what is causing this and maybe more importantly, what do you do to kick-start growth in order to try to reach your $40 billion revenue goal if this trend persists?

就成長而言，過去二十年四輪驅動和 100 馬力加拖拉機的銷量有所下降，隨著一些外國整合，人們會認為實際上會導致更大機器的銷售。但趨勢是小型機器的銷售，而小型機器的銷售實際上有所增加，問題是，造成這種情況的原因是什麼，也許更重要的是，如果如果這種趨勢持續嗎？

Okay. First of all, on the smaller end of the tractor markets, you've really seen things that reflect more lifestyles and to some degree it reflects what's happening in farming. The middle-sized farms are the ones being absorbed into larger farms and you have a greater demand at the smaller end farms where people are, its more of a lifestyle, if you will select a better term, where its primary income is not coming from the farm [_______________] and that trends keep getting bigger and then middle disappearing, and then on increased number of smaller, more lifestyle oriented farms, these places have more discretionary income, because, again they have off farm jobs. Also, you see many more uses for some of the smaller sized products and more effort being made to develop those markets, you know, from roadside mowing, a lot more being done commercially. So, that's what's been feeding, if you will, the growth in the smaller end. If you look at the actual unit volumes, the unit volumes haven't grown much, but average horsepower have, we don't have those numbers handy, but what you're seeing is that while actually the unit volumes are growing as dramatically, horsepower, average horsepower sold per is, so you're seeing a pretty impressive move up the horsepower curve, for the larger sized farms. Now how we take advantage of that is we make sure you cover that smaller market, which we have very successfully done, with some of the new 4000 and 5000 series tractors that have been introduced and we'll continue to develop platforms for in the future, and then continuing to develop smart machines on the higher end that increases our farmer's productivity. And additionally, we have all sorts of things happening globally, all sorts of initiatives underway there that will help us grow, that's a long answer.

好的。首先，在較小的拖拉機市場上，您確實看到了反映更多生活方式的東西，並且在某種程度上反映了農業中正在發生的事情。中型農場是那些被納入大型農場的農場，你對人們所在的小型終端農場有更大的需求，它更像是一種生活方式，如果你選擇一個更好的術語，它的主要收入不是來自那裡農場[_______________] 且趨勢不斷變大，然後中間消失，然後在越來越多的小型、更注重生活方式的農場上，這些地方有更多的可自由支配收入，因為他們再次有非農場工作。此外，您會看到一些較小尺寸的產品有更多用途，並且正在付出更多努力來開發這些市場，您知道，從路邊割草來看，更多的工作是商業化的。所以，如果你願意的話，這就是推動較小端成長的因素。如果你看實際的單位體積，單位體積並沒有增長太多，但平均馬力卻增長了，我們手邊沒有這些數字，但你看到的是，雖然實際上單位體積正在急劇增長，馬力，即每售出的平均馬力，因此對於較大規模的農場，您會看到馬力曲線上的移動非常令人印象深刻。現在，我們如何利用這一優勢，確保您覆蓋較小的市場，我們已經非常成功地做到了這一點，推出了一些新型 4000 和 5000 系列拖拉機，我們將在未來繼續開發平台，然後繼續開發高端智能機器，以提高農民的生產力。此外，全球範圍內正在發生各種各樣的事情，那裡正在進行各種有助於我們成長的舉措，這是一個很長的答案。

Okay, thank you.

好的謝謝。

Our next question is from Andrew [_______________] with Prudential Sector Healthcare Group.

我們的下一個問題來自 Prudential Sector Healthcare Group 的 Andrew [_______________]。

Actually Prudential Securities. Hi, Marie.

其實就是保誠證券。嗨，瑪麗。

Hi, Andy.

嗨，安迪。

Just a question on the row crop tractors and Waterloo, as you pull production out for a week, have you also reduced the line speed, that you may be using and is that a one-shift operation right now?

只是關於中耕作物拖拉機和滑鐵盧的問題，當您停止生產一周時，您是否也降低了您可能正在使用的生產線速度，現在是一班制操作嗎？

Couldn't answer the question on whether it's a one or two shift, I simply don't know. Typically, what we've tried to do is avoid big swings in line rates because it's very disruptive in the factory. I can't speak specifically whether or not there have been some modest changes along the way, they probably have, but we find that the shutdown is more efficient in terms of a way to manage changes in the need for inventory than trying to adjust the line rate, because that really does involve a lot of shifting within the factory. Does that help?

無法回答是一班還是兩班的問題，我根本不知道。通常，我們試圖做的是避免生產線速率的大幅波動，因為這對工廠來說非常具有破壞性。我不能具體說明在此過程中是否發生了一些適度的變化，他們可能有，但我們發現，就管理庫存需求變化的方式而言，關閉比試圖調整庫存更有效。生產線速度，因為這確實涉及工廠內的大量轉移。這樣有幫助嗎？

Yeah, it does. Thanks a lot.

是的，確實如此。多謝。

I think we've got time for one more question, and then we'll end.

我想我們還有時間再問一個問題，然後我們就結束了。

Our last question is from David Bleustein with UBS Warburg.

我們的最後一個問題來自瑞銀華寶 (UBS Warburg) 的大衛布魯斯坦 (David Bleustein)。

That's an easy one. Do you expect to be profitable in each of the divisions in the third quarter?

這是一件容易的事。您預計第三季每個部門都能獲利嗎？

In each of the divisions in the third quarter, we would certainly aspire for that, yes, but it would be difficult in some divisions.

在第三季的每個賽區，我們當然會渴望做到這一點，是的，但在某些賽區這會很困難。

Okay. Thanks Marie.

好的。謝謝瑪麗。

And thank you all very much for participating. Tony, Greg and I will be here the rest of the day to answer any subsequent questions you might have. Thank you.

非常感謝大家的參與。托尼、格雷格和我將在今天剩餘的時間裡回答您可能提出的任何後續問題。謝謝。