杜邦 (DD) 2018 Q4 法說會逐字稿

Good day, and welcome to DowDuPont's Fourth Quarter 2018 Earnings Call. (Operator Instructions) Also, today's call is being recorded.

各位好，歡迎參加陶氏杜邦2018年第四季財報電話會議。（操作員指示）另外，今天的通話將被錄音。

I would now like to turn the call over to Jen Driscoll, VP of Investor Relations. Please go ahead, ma'am.

現在我將把電話交給投資者關係副總裁 Jen Driscoll。請便，女士。

Thank you, Rochelle. Good morning, everyone. Thank you for joining us for DowDuPont Fourth Quarter 2018 Earnings Conference Call. We're making this call available to investors and media via webcast. We prepared slides to supplement our comments during this conference call. These slides are posted on the Investor Relations section of DowDuPont's website and through the link to our webcast.

謝謝你，羅謝爾。各位早安。感謝您參加陶氏杜邦2018年第四季財報電話會議。我們將透過網路直播向投資者和媒體提供本次電話會議。我們準備了幻燈片，以補充我們在本次電話會議中的演講。這些幻燈片已發佈在陶氏杜邦公司網站的投資者關係部分，也可透過我們網路直播的連結查看。

Speaking on the call today are Ed Breen, Chief Executive Officer; Howard Ungerleider, Chief Financial Officer; Jim Fitterling, Jim Collins and Marc Doyle, who are Chief Operating Officers for DowDuPont's Materials Science, Agriculture and Specialty divisions, respectively; and Lori Koch and Neal Sheorey, who will lead IR for the new DuPont and new Dow, respectively.

今天參加電話會議的有：執行長 Ed Breen；財務長 Howard Ungerleider；陶氏杜邦材料科學、農業和特種化學品部門的首席營運長 Jim Fitterling、Jim Collins 和 Marc Doyle；以及將分別領導新杜邦和新陶氏投資者關係的 Lori Koch 和 Neal Sheorey。

Please read the forward-looking statement disclaimer contained in the earnings news release and slides. During our call, we'll make forward-looking statements regarding our expectations or predictions about the future. Because these statements are based on current assumptions and factors that involve risks and uncertainties, our actual performance and results may differ materially from our forward-looking statements. Our Form 10, and each of Dow's and DuPont's Form 10-Ks, as well as Dow's and Corteva's Forms 10s and DowDuPont's prospectus Supplement filed on November 16, 2018, include detailed discussions of principal risks and uncertainties which may cause such differences.

請閱讀盈利新聞稿和幻燈片中包含的前瞻性聲明免責聲明。在電話會議中，我們將就我們對未來的預期或預測發表前瞻性聲明。由於這些聲明是基於目前的假設和涉及風險和不確定性的因素，我們的實際表現和結果可能與我們的前瞻性聲明有重大差異。我們的 10 表格，以及陶氏和杜邦的 10-K 表格，還有陶氏和科迪華的 10 表格以及陶氏杜邦於 2018 年 11 月 16 日提交的招股說明書補充文件，都詳細討論了可能導致此類差異的主要風險和不確定性。

Also, we'll comment on segment results on a divisional basis, so please take note of the divisional disclaimer in our earnings release and slides. Unless otherwise specified, all historical financial measures presented today for the full year 2018 are on a pro forma basis, and all financials, where applicable, exclude significant items. We'll also refer to non-GAAP measures. A reconciliation to the most directly comparable GAAP financial measure and other associated disclosures are contained in our earnings release and on our website.

此外，我們將按部門對各業務板塊的業績進行評論，因此請注意我們盈利報告和幻燈片中的部門免責聲明。除非另有說明，今天公佈的 2018 年全年所有歷史財務指標均為備考數據，所有財務數據（如適用）均不包括重大項目。我們也會參考非GAAP指標。與最直接可比較的 GAAP 財務指標的調節表及其他相關披露信息，請參閱我們的盈利報告和網站。

With that, I'll turn the call over to Ed.

接下來，我將把電話交給艾德。

Thanks, Jen, and thanks, everyone, for joining us. Today, we reported fourth quarter and full year results for 2018. And as we'll discuss on this call, it was a good year on all counts as we delivered innovative solutions to customers; exceeded our cost synergy target; and at the same time, prepared to stand up 3 industry-leading world-class companies.

謝謝Jen，也謝謝大家的參與。今天，我們公佈了2018年第四季和全年業績。正如我們將在本次電話會議中討論的那樣，今年在各個方面都是豐收的一年，我們為客戶提供了創新的解決方案；超額完成了成本協同效應目標；同時，我們也準備成立 3 家行業領先的世界級公司。

In terms of our over-arching performance for the full year, we grew adjusted EPS 21% on a pro forma basis to $4.11. We delivered a net sales increase of 8% with price improvement in all regions and volume growth in most regions. We also increased operating EBITDA 13%. In 2 months, we plan to separate the new Dow, followed shortly thereafter by the separation of Corteva from new DuPont. We made significant progress this year towards these important milestones, and I'd like to thank the teams for all their hard work to make this happen.

就全年整體業績而言，我們按備考基準調整後的每股盈餘成長了 21%，達到 4.11 美元。我們實現了淨銷售額成長 8%，所有地區價格均有所提高，大多數地區銷量也有所成長。我們的營運 EBITDA 也成長了 13%。兩個月後，我們計劃將新的陶氏化學分拆出來，隨後不久，我們將把科迪華從新的杜邦公司分拆出來。今年我們在實現這些重要里程碑方面取得了顯著進展，我要感謝所有團隊為實現這一目標所付出的辛勤努力。

Now let me recap the high points of the year we concluded. First, we delivered on the earnings objective we set for ourselves, strengthened by well-executed capacity additions and many new product launches, leading to overall local price improvement for each of the divisions and volume growth across the majority of our segments.

現在讓我回顧一下我們剛剛過去的這一年的亮點。首先，我們實現了自己設定的獲利目標，這得益於產能的良好擴張和眾多新產品的推出，從而帶動了各部門整體本地價格的改善以及大部分業務板塊的銷量增長。

Second, we upped our cost synergy target to $3.6 billion, 20% higher than our initial target, and we have delivered more than $1.8 billion in savings since merger close.

其次，我們將成本綜效目標提高到 36 億美元，比最初目標高出 20%，自合併完成以來，我們已經節省了超過 18 億美元。

Third, after completing our initial $4 billion share buyback program, we announced a new $3 billion share repurchase authorization and completed $1.4 billion of that in the fourth quarter. We have returned nearly $10 billion to shareholders since the merger closed and intend to complete another $1.6 billion share repurchase by the end of the quarter.

第三，在完成最初的 40 億美元股票回購計畫後，我們宣布了一項新的 30 億美元股票回購授權，並在第四季度完成了其中的 14 億美元。自合併完成以來，我們已向股東返還了近 100 億美元，並計劃在本季末完成另外 16 億美元的股票回購。

And finally, we announced the future boards, including many new directors. Across each board, our directors bring strong and highly relevant experience, insights, and key expertise to help our companies launch, grow and deliver for all stakeholders. We also announced the 3 CEOs, each 1 is a talented leader with deep knowledge of their industry, has a track record of delivering value, and is highly focused on increasing shareholder returns. They also have great teams supporting them, successful, dedicated operators who know their respective businesses and end markets extremely well. As a result of the process we have been through in creating them, we are confident that each company will be well positioned in its markets with appropriate capital structures and plans to invest capital and R&D in ways that will drive significant shareholder value creation now and into the future. I couldn't be more excited about where each one is headed.

最後，我們公佈了未來的董事會成員名單，其中包括許多新董事。在每個董事會中，我們的董事都擁有豐富的相關經驗、深刻的洞察力和關鍵的專業知識，可以幫助我們的公司啟動、發​​展並為所有利益相關者創造價值。我們還宣布了 3 位首席執行官，他們都是才華橫溢的領導者，對各自的行業有著深刻的了解，擁有創造價值的良好記錄，並且高度專注於提高股東回報。他們也擁有優秀的團隊支持，這些成功且敬業的營運人員對各自的業務和終端市場都非常了解。由於我們經歷了創建這些公司的過程，我們有信心每家公司都將在各自的市場中佔據有利地位，擁有適當的資本結構和投資資本及研發的計劃，從而在現在和未來為股東創造巨大的價值。我對他們各自的發展方向感到無比興奮。

Howard will go over our fourth quarter results in more detail, so I'll point out a couple of things that we're keeping an eye on. We saw some short-term softening in the fourth quarter, including a steady drop in the price of oil and destocking in a few of our value chains that went beyond normal seasonality. Even in this environment, we were able to offset the headwinds to deliver flat sales year-over-year, which included 1% volume growth. We also delivered year-over-year adjusted EPS growth because of unique levers in our control, such as cost synergies, new capacity additions and product innovations. We believe our market share held up well, our execution was good and our new products are resonating with customers.

霍華德將更詳細地介紹我們第四季度的業績，所以我將指出我們正在關注的幾個方面。第四季我們看到了一些短期疲軟現象，包括油價持續下跌以及一些價值鏈的去庫存超出了正常的季節性波動。即使在這種環境下，我們也能夠抵消不利因素，實現年比銷售額持平，其中銷量成長了 1%。由於我們擁有獨特的控製手段，例如成本協同效應、新增產能和產品創新，我們也實現了同比調整後每股收益成長。我們相信我們的市場份額保持良好，我們的執行力很強，我們的新產品也受到了客戶的歡迎。

As we look at 2019, we are confident that the global economy will grow. However, there is more uncertainty than usual over the precise rate of growth we expect. We anticipate China to continue to grow this year, albeit at a slower pace, along with slowing activity in Europe. We expect modest growth in most other regions.

展望2019年，我們相信全球經濟將會成長。然而，我們預期的具體成長率存在比以往更多的不確定性。我們預期中國今年將持續成長，儘管成長放緩，同時歐洲經濟活動也將放緩。我們預計其他大部分地區將出現溫和成長。

Let me provide some context to our expectations, starting with Materials Science. We have consistently been forecasting a period of margin compression in both the Polyurethanes and polyethylene chains due to capacity additions across the industry. These dynamics have turned out largely as we expected, and Jim Fitterling will go into more detail about the trends we saw in the fourth quarter and the start to the year.

讓我先從材料科學入手，為我們的預期提供一些背景資訊。由於整個產業的產能增加，我們一直預測聚氨酯和聚乙烯產業鏈都會出現一段利潤率壓縮期。這些動態基本上符合我們的預期，Jim Fitterling 將更詳細地介紹我們在第四季和年初看到的趨勢。

For Specialty Products, we see benefits in 2019 from global economic growth and from our highly differentiated market positions, as Marc Doyle will explain.

正如馬克·多伊爾將要解釋的那樣，特種產品業務在 2019 年受益於全球經濟成長和我們高度差異化的市場地位。

And in Agriculture, we expect to realize first-hit benefits from cost synergies and new products, offset by currency and higher unit cost, as Jim Collins will outline.

在農業方面，我們預計將從成本協同效應和新產品中獲得首批收益，但匯率波動和更高的單位成本將抵消這些收益，正如吉姆柯林斯將概述的那樣。

With that, let me turn it over to Howard.

接下來，我將把發言權交給霍華德。

Thanks, Ed. Moving to Slide 3 and the summary of our fourth quarter results. We closed the year with solid financial performance for DowDuPont, utilizing the levers in our control to offset all of the margin compression we experienced in the quarter. We delivered earnings per share of $0.88, a 6% increase year-over-year. Earnings drivers in the quarter included cost synergies and local price gains. Our operating tax rate was also a tailwind of $0.02 per share. EBITDA was flat at $3.9 billion as these earnings tailwinds were offset by margin compression in Materials Science, lower equity earnings and a currency impact of 2% on sales or $0.03 per share.

謝謝你，艾德。接下來是投影片 3，總結我們第四季的業績。我們利用自身可控的手段抵銷了本季所有利潤率壓縮的影響，陶氏杜邦公司以穩健的財務表現結束了這一年。我們實現了每股收益 0.88 美元，年增 6%。本季獲利成長的驅動因素包括成本綜效和本地價格上漲。我們的營業稅率也帶來了每股 0.02 美元的利多。由於材料科學領域的利潤率下降、股權收益減少以及匯率對銷售額造成 2% 或每股 0.03 美元的影響，EBITDA 持平於 39 億美元。

Volume grew 1% with gains in Industrial Intermediates & Infrastructure, Nutrition & Health, Safety & Construction and Ag. From a regional perspective, we achieved high single-digit volume growth in Asia Pacific and Latin America, which more than offset declines in the U.S. and Canada and EMEA. Local price also rose 1% with gains in Transportation & Advanced Polymers, Safety & Construction, Performance Materials & Coatings and Ag. Currency was a 2% headwind.

銷售量成長 1%，其中工業中間體和基礎設施、營養與健康、安全與建築以及農業板塊均成長。從區域角度來看，我們在亞太地區和拉丁美洲實現了接近兩位數的銷量成長，足以抵消美國、加拿大和歐洲、中東及非洲地區的銷量下滑。本地價格也上漲了 1%，其中交通運輸及先進聚合物、安全及建築、高性能材料及塗料和農業板塊均上漲。匯率波動造成了2%的不利影響。

We continue to exceed our cost synergy commitments with more than $500 million of savings achieved in the quarter. This brings our year-over-year cost synergy savings to $1.6 billion for 2018, above our increased target of $1.5 billion.

我們繼續超額完成成本綜效的承諾，本季實現了超過 5 億美元的成本節約。這使得我們 2018 年的年度成本綜效節省金額達到 16 億美元，高於我們提高後的 15 億美元的目標。

Cash flow from operations in the quarter was $5.1 billion, up from $1.8 billion in the year ago period. On an apples-to-apples basis, after adjusting for the accounting and presentation change for the A/R securitization program, our cash flow from operations increased year-over-year by $900 million. And we returned to $2.3 billion of cash to our owners, which included 1.4 billion of share repurchases.

本季經營活動產生的現金流量為 51 億美元，高於去年同期的 18 億美元。在對應收帳款證券化計畫的會計和列報變更進行調整後，我們的營運活動現金流比去年同期增加了 9 億美元。我們向股東返還了 23 億美元的現金，其中包括 14 億美元的股票回購。

Looking at our full year, DowDuPont delivered strong financial and operating performance as evidenced by several metrics: We achieved solid top and bottom line growth; we outperformed on every one of our increased synergy savings and run rate targets; we generated $4.7 billion of cash from operations, which included discretionary pension contributions of more than $2 billion; we finalized the capital structures for each intended company, achieving the targeted credit ratings for each; and we successfully completed debt offerings for new DuPont and new Dow of $12.7 billion and $2 billion, respectively; we also completed a tender a for $4.4 billion of heritage DowDuPont's debt as part of establishing Corteva's capital structure; and we've made significant capital returns to shareholders, which, from merger close to the end of the fourth quarter, totaled nearly $10 billion. Summing it up, the DowDuPont team responded to and offset the headwinds we faced, staying focused on executing our new capacity startups and our product launches and advancing activities and our key milestones towards spin.

回顧全年，陶氏杜邦的財務和營運業績表現強勁，多項指標證明了這一點：我們實現了穩健的營收和利潤增長；我們超額完成了所有提高協同效應節省和運行率目標；我們從運營中產生了47億美元的現金，其中包括超過20億美元的酌情養老金；我們最終確定了每家擬建公司的資本結構，養老金並達到了各自的目標信用評級；我們成功完成了新杜邦和新陶氏的債務發行，金額分別為127億美元和20億美元；作為科迪華資本結構的一部分，我們還完成了對陶氏杜邦44億美元原有債務的要約收購；此外，我們向股東返還了大量資本，從合併接近第四季度末開始，總額接近100億美元。總而言之，陶氏杜邦團隊積極應對並克服了我們面臨的不利因素，始終專注於執行新的產能啟動和產品發布，並推進各項活動以及實現分拆的關鍵里程碑。

Turning to our modeling guidance on Slide 4. At the macro level, we continue to monitor macroeconomic and geopolitical developments, including ongoing trade negotiations and the pace of economic activity in China. In this environment, we remain focused on actions in our control, including capitalizing on our growth investments, capturing cost synergy savings, delivering productivity actions and advancing on our spin milestones.

接下來請看投影片 4 的建模指導。在宏觀層面，我們將繼續監測宏觀經濟和地緣政治發展，包括正在進行的貿易談判和中國的經濟活動步伐。在這種環境下，我們將繼續專注於我們可控的行動，包括利用我們的成長投資、實現成本協同效應、提高生產力以及推進我們的分拆里程碑。

We expect first quarter net sales to be in the range of $20 billion to $20.5 billion. Operating EBITDA is expected to be in the range of $4.2 billion to $4.4 billion. Additionally, net interest expense is expected to be up more than $100 million as a result of the new debt we took on in the fourth quarter to implement our capital structures and prepare for spin. And we also see currency headwinds year-over-year, which will impact EBITDA in the range of $150 million to $200 million.

我們預計第一季淨銷售額將在 200 億美元至 205 億美元之間。預計營運 EBITDA 將在 42 億美元至 44 億美元之間。此外，由於我們在第四季度承擔了新的債務，以實施我們的資本結構並為分拆做準備，預計淨利息支出將增加超過 1 億美元。我們也看到匯率波動帶來的不利影響逐年顯現，這將對 EBITDA 造成 1.5 億美元至 2 億美元的損失。

In the Agriculture division, first half sales are expected to be down low single-digits percent and we see operating EBITDA flat. Excluding currency, sales are expected to be up low single digits percent. It's always difficult to call the sales split between the first and the second quarter and farmers are still finalizing their planting decisions. First quarter sales are expected to be down low single digits percent, but up low single-digit percent excluding currency. Operating EBITDA is expected to be down low single digits percent as synergy delivery and organic growth from new product sales are more than offset by currency pressures and increased input costs.

農業部門上半年銷售額預計將下降個位數百分比，預計營業 EBITDA 將持平。剔除匯率因素，預期銷售額將達到個位數百分比的成長。很難預測第一季和第二季的銷售額佔比，農民仍在最終確定種植計畫。預計第一季銷售額將下降個位數百分比，但若不計匯率影響，則將成長個位數百分比。由於協同效應的實現和新產品銷售帶來的內生成長被匯率壓力和投入成本的增加所抵消，預計營運 EBITDA 將下降個位數百分比。

In the Materials Science division, we expect continued strong consumer demand, though at a moderately slower pace than in 2018. We expect operating EBITDA to be down low-20s percent as volume growth, cost synergies and the benefit from the completion of our U.S. Gulf Coast investments will be more than offset by lower chain margin spreads that will continue into the first quarter due to the averaging effect, particularly in our polyethylene and isocyanates chains. The division is acting quickly on a series of actions to offset as much of these headwinds as possible, including cost and productivity actions, capitalizing on new capacity additions and driving pricing improvements. As a result of all of these actions, the division expects margins to stabilize and then improve as it moves into the middle of the year.

在材料科學部門，我們預期消費者需求將持續保持強勁，儘管成長速度會比 2018 年略有放緩。我們預計，由於銷售成長、成本協同效應以及美國墨西哥灣沿岸投資完成帶來的收益將被供應鏈利潤率差的下降所抵消，營運 EBITDA 將下降 20% 左右。由於平均效應，供應鏈利潤率差的下降將持續到第一季度，尤其是在我們的聚乙烯和異氰酸酯供應鏈中。該部門正在迅速採取一系列措施，以盡可能抵消這些不利因素，包括降低成本和提高生產力、利用新增產能以及推動價格改善。由於採取了所有這些措施，該部門預計利潤率將趨於穩定，並在年中時有所改善。

The Specialty Products division expects gains in local price across most segments to be more than offset by currency, a portfolio headwind and softer volumes resulting in low single-digit percent declines for the quarter. We expect organic revenue growth to be roughly flat with prior year. We expect operating EBITDA to be down low single digits percent from raw material and currency headwinds as well as softer volumes more than offsetting cost synergies and strength in local price. Excluding currency and portfolio, we expect operating EBITDA to be slightly up.

特種產品部門預計，大多數細分市場的本地價格上漲將被匯率波動、產品組合不利因素和銷售疲軟所抵消，導致本季銷售量出現個位數百分比的下滑。我們預計有機收入成長將與上年大致持平。我們預計，受原材料和匯率不利因素以及銷售疲軟的影響，營業 EBITDA 將下降個位數百分比，降幅將超過成本協同效應和當地價格走強帶來的抵銷作用。剔除匯率和投資組合因素，我們預計營運 EBITDA 將略有成長。

More comments on our segment expectations for the first quarter can be found in the appendix. And with that, I'll turn it over to Jim Fitterling to discuss the Materials Science Division's fourth quarter and full year results.

有關我們對第一季各業務板塊的預期，更多評論請參閱附錄。接下來，我將把發言權交給吉姆·菲特林，讓他來討論材料科學部門第四季和全年的業績。

Thanks, Howard. Moving to Slide 5. Materials Science delivered solid results to close out the year despite some short-term market headwinds. On the demand side, we saw softness in select end markets related to durable goods, such as appliances and autos, which drove some above-normal destocking. Outside of this, demand was relatively strong. And on the margin side, we faced some discrete pressures in the quarter, particularly in isocyanates and polyethylene. We pivoted to counter these headwinds with the multiple actions in our control, including cost synergy savings, disciplined price/volume management, feedstock flexibility and capitalizing on our recent capacity expansions.

謝謝你，霍華德。切換到第 5 張投影片。儘管短期內市場面臨一些不利因素，材料科學領域仍取得了穩健的業績，為這一年畫下了圓滿的句點。在需求方面，我們看到與耐用品相關的特定終端市場（如家電和汽車）出現疲軟，這導致了一些高於正常水平的去庫存。除此之外，需求相對強勁。在利潤率方面，本季我們面臨一些具體的壓力，特別是異氰酸酯和聚乙烯方面。我們採取了多項可控措施來應對這些不利因素，包括成本協同效應節約、嚴格的價格/銷售管理、原料靈活性以及利用我們最近的產能擴張。

Here are some division highlights. We again captured demand growth across the majority of our core businesses. We achieved high-single digit volume growth in Polyurethanes and Industrial Solutions and our Packaging and Specialty Plastics business grew volume 4%. We delivered high single digit EBITDA growth in Consumer Solutions, where we drove pricing actions and adjusted our product mix to focus on higher-margin business. We brought online our new High Melt Index elastomers train and completed the bimodal polyethylene debottleneck by the end of the quarter. CapEx for the quarter was $890 million, bringing Dow's full year CapEx to $2.5 billion. And the Sadara joint venture successfully completed its creditors' reliability test in the first attempt.

以下是一些分區亮點。我們再次實現了大部分核心業務的需求成長。我們在聚氨酯和工業解決方案領域實現了接近兩位數的銷售成長，包裝和特殊塑膠業務的銷量成長了 4%。我們在消費者解決方案領域實現了高個位數的 EBITDA 成長，我們採取了定價策略，並調整了產品組合，以專注於利潤率更高的業務。我們已將新的高熔點指數彈性體生產線投入使用，並在季度末完成了雙峰聚乙烯產能瓶頸的消除。本季資本支出為 8.9 億美元，使陶氏全年資本支出達到 25 億美元。Sadara合資企業一次性成功通過了債權人可靠性測試。

The fourth quarter presented us with some discrete challenges. Brent crude oil started the quarter at more than $80 per barrel and then steadily dropped throughout the quarter, finishing the year in the low $50 per barrel range, a drop of more than 35%. In addition to that, we saw a 40% compression in the naphtha to ethane spread driven by the oil price drop as well as weak gasoline demand and higher U.S. natural gas price on cold winter weather. These trends compressed our feedstock advantage, not just in the Americas, but also for our main joint ventures, and you see that in the nearly $240 million impact, which is split about evenly across our core business and our equity earnings. While we were not immune to this trend, our results demonstrated resilience because of the factors that we've consistently highlighted: Feedstock flexibility, full chain integration, cost-out actions and strong operating discipline.

第四季給我們帶來了一些獨特的挑戰。布蘭特原油價格在本季度初為每桶 80 美元以上，然後在整個季度中穩步下跌，最終以每桶 50 美元左右的價格結束了這一年，跌幅超過 35%。除此之外，由於油價下跌、汽油需求疲軟以及美國冬季寒冷天氣導致天然氣價格上漲，石腦油與乙烷價差收窄了 40%。這些趨勢壓縮了我們的原料優勢，不僅在美洲，而且在我們主要的合資企業中也是如此，這一點從近 2.4 億美元的影響中可以看出，這筆影響大致平均分配到我們的核心業務和股權收益中。雖然我們未能免受這一趨勢的影響，但我們的業績展現出了韌性，這得益於我們一直強調的因素：原料靈活性、完整的供應鏈整合、成本削減措施和嚴格的營運紀律。

I'll now take a closer look at our performance of each business on Slide 6. Performance Materials & Coatings achieved operating EBITDA growth of 5% as price gains in all regions and benefits from cost synergies more than offset volume decline.

現在我將在第 6 張投影片上更詳細地看一下我們各項業務的業績。高性能材料與塗料業務的營業 EBITDA 成長了 5%，所有地區的價格上漲和成本協同效應帶來的收益超過了銷量下降的幅度。

Consumer Solutions faced a sequential moderation in siloxanes prices, primarily in Asia Pacific, following an 18-month run-up in prices that peaked in the third quarter. In response, the business drove proactive measures to improve its product mix in the quarter, resulting in volume declines. However, price, margin and bottom line earnings all rose.

消費解決方案面臨矽氧烷價格的環比回落，主要集中在亞太地區。此前，矽氧烷價格經歷了 18 個月的上漲，並在第三季達到高峰。為此，該公司在本季採取了積極措施來改善其產品組合，導致銷量下降。然而，價格、利潤率和淨收益均有所增長。

In Coatings & Performance Monomers, the business expanded operating EBITDA margin in coatings as raw material costs fell.

在塗料和高性能單體業務中，隨著原材料成本下降，塗料業務的營業 EBITDA 利潤率有所提高。

Our Performance Monomers sales and EBITDA declined due to an extended turnaround in the quarter, which is now complete and impacted results by approximately $20 million.

由於本季檢修期延長，我們的高效能單體銷售額和 EBITDA 有所下降，目前檢修期已結束，對業績造成了約 2000 萬美元的影響。

Industrial Intermediates & Infrastructure operating EBITDA declined by 18%, primarily driven by a contraction in isocyanates that impacted core business results, particularly in Polyurethanes, as well as some softening in appliance and automotive end markets. The contraction in isocyanate spreads, along with a 25% margin compression in MEG, also led to year-over-year reduction in equity earnings. These headwinds more than offset demand growth and benefits from cost synergies.

工業中間體和基礎設施業務的營業 EBITDA 下降了 18%，主要原因是異氰酸酯業務的萎縮影響了核心業務的業績，尤其是聚氨酯業務，以及家電和汽車終端市場的一些疲軟。異氰酸酯價差的收窄，以及乙二醇利潤率下降 25%，也導致權益收益較去年同期下降。這些不利因素抵銷了需求成長和成本綜效帶來的效益。

Sales gains in both Polyurethanes and Chlor-Alkali and Vinyl and Industrial Solutions were led by robust volume growth due to increased supply from Sadara. In the Polyurethanes chain, the moderation in isocyanates prices that we had forecasted for some time accelerated in the quarter with MDI prices dropping about 40% year-over-year. In our view, the fly-up margins that we captured over the past year completely unwound over the course of the fourth quarter, notably in Asia Pacific and Europe, where we have the largest merchant isocyanates exposure.

聚氨酯、氯鹼、乙烯基和工業解決方案的銷售額均有所增長，這主要得益於 Sadara 供應量的增加，從而實現了強勁的銷售成長。在聚氨酯產業鏈中，我們先前預測的異氰酸酯價格緩和趨勢在本季加速，MDI 價格年減約 40%。我們認為，過去一年我們獲得的飛躍式利潤在第四季度完全消失，尤其是在亞太地區和歐洲，因為我們在這些地區擁有最大的異氰酸酯貿易曝險。

Moving to Packaging and Specialty Plastics. Operating EBITDA declined 13% in the quarter. Cost synergies, increased supply from growth projects and lower commissioning and startup costs were more than offset by reduced equity earnings and the margin contraction across polyethylene products. The 40% compression in the naphtha to ethane spread, coupled with polyethylene price declines, aligned with what we forecasted for polyethylene margins for some time. Given that demand remained solid, our view is that polyethylene margins will stabilize in the first half of the year, potentially with some volatility in feedstock cost, depending on how new cracker startups are eventually balanced by new NGL fractionation capacity.

轉向包裝和特殊塑膠領域。本季營業 EBITDA 下降 13%。成本綜效、成長項目帶來的供應增加以及調試和啟動成本的降低，都被聚乙烯產品股權收益的減少和利潤率的下降所抵消。石腦油與乙烷價差收窄 40%，加上聚乙烯價格下跌，這與我們一段時間以來對聚乙烯利潤率的預測相符。鑑於需求依然強勁，我們認為聚乙烯利潤率將在今年上半年趨於穩定，原料成本可能會出現一些波動，這取決於新的裂解裝置啟動最終如何與新的NGL分餾產能相平衡。

It is worth noting that we did not face a demand issue in Packaging and Specialty Plastics in the quarter. We grew volume on higher demand across most regions and new capacity from Sadara and the U.S. Gulf Coast. Demand growth was led by our industrial and consumer packaging and flexible food and specialty packaging markets. The business also achieved volume gains in Elastomers and Wire and Cable applications.

值得注意的是，本季我們在包裝和特種塑膠領域並未遇到需求問題。由於大多數地區需求增加，以及來自薩達拉和美國墨西哥灣沿岸的新產能，我們的銷售量有所成長。需求成長主要由我們的工業和消費品包裝以及柔性食品和特殊包裝市場所帶動。該業務在彈性體和電線電纜應用領域也實現了銷售成長。

Taking a broader look at the full year. Materials Science delivered an exceptional year financially and operationally. We achieved double-digit sales and operating EBITDA growth with gains in every operating segment. We brought online 3 new facilities: A next-gen NORDEL, metallocene EPDM plant, a new world-scale proprietary tubular low density polyethylene facility and a new High Melt Index elastomers train. We also completed the capacity expansion of our bimodal gas phase polyethylene unit in St. Charles, Louisiana. These were the final units of our Wave 1 U.S. Gulf Coast investments. Product from each unit is now in the market, and we have performed at or above design rates on each one.

從更宏觀的角度來看全年情況。材料科學部門在財務和營運方面都取得了卓越的成績。我們實現了兩位數的銷售額和營業 EBITDA 成長，並且每個營運部門都取得了成長。我們啟用了 3 個新設施：一個新一代 NORDEL 茂金屬 EPDM 工廠、一個全新的世界級專有管狀低密度聚乙烯工廠和一條新的高熔體指數彈性體生產線。我們也完成了位於聖路易斯的雙峰氣相聚乙烯裝置的產能擴建。路易斯安那州查爾斯市。這些是我們第一階段美國墨西哥灣沿岸投資的最後幾間單元房。每個生產單元的產品現已推出市場，並且每個單元的產量均達到或超過設計產量。

CapEx for the Dow tower in 2018 was $2.5 billion compared to $3.3 billion in 2017, and below our D&A level. In addition, Sadara successfully passed the critical creditors' reliability test. And we consistently outperformed on our synergy commitments, driving toward a leaner cost structure.

2018 年道瓊大廈的資本支出為 25 億美元，而 2017 年為 33 億美元，低於我們的折舊和攤提水準。此外，Sadara 還成功通過了關鍵債權人可靠性測試。我們始終超額完成綜效承諾，朝著更精簡的成本結構邁進。

Looking ahead, at this early stage in 2019, we're seeing the stabilization in our key product spreads and demand remains robust. We see the first half of the year as a time to focus on stabilizing prices in order to rebuild margins as we move into the middle of the year. Team Dow remains focused on the task at hand, controlling what we can control, harnessing our growth projects, driving innovation. And we're taking proactive measures to mitigate near-term headwinds, including deferring certain spending to adjust to the current macros and spreads and continuing to address our cost synergy and stranded cost actions. And we're progressing our spin milestones to deliver a successful separation and spin in 2 months' time.

展望未來，在 2019 年的初期階段，我們看到主要產品價差趨於穩定，需求依然強勁。我們認為上半年應該要集中精力穩定價格，以便在年中之前重建利潤率。陶氏團隊始終專注於手邊的任務，控制我們能夠控制的事情，利用我們的成長項目，推動創新。我們正在採取積極措施來減輕近期不利因素，包括推遲某些支出以適應當前的宏觀經濟形勢和價差，並繼續推進我們的成本協同效應和擱淺成本行動。我們正按計畫推進分拆里程碑，爭取在 2 個月內成功完成分拆。

I'll now turn it over to Marc to cover Specialty Products.

現在我將把發言權交給馬克，讓他來介紹特色產品。

Thanks, Jim. Turning to Slide 7. Specialty Products reported strong results amid a softening macro environment which unfolded during the quarter, specifically in automotive and consumer electronics end markets. We overcame macro conditions to again deliver organic revenue growth and solid earnings improvement. Our leadership position in diverse and attractive end markets is built on customer relationships and value-added innovation, which together with our intense focus on productivity, enables us to outperform the industry in any market environment.

謝謝你，吉姆。請看第 7 張投影片。儘管本季宏觀環境疲軟，尤其是在汽車和消費性電子終端市場，但特種產品部門仍取得了強勁的業績。我們克服了宏觀環境不利因素，再次實現了內生性收入成長和穩健的獲利改善。我們在多元化且具吸引力的終端市場中佔據領先地位，這得益於我們與客戶建立的良好關係以及增值創新。再加上我們對生產力的高度重視，使我們能夠在任何市場環境下超越行業平均水平。

This quarter, we continued to drive double-digit growth in our probiotics portfolio. We're nearing completion of our capacity expansion and expect to have the new volume online by the end of the quarter. Additionally, our overall Nutrition & Health sales in the Asia Pacific market continued to grow by double digits. Our Tyvek business continues to be strong in the high-growth industrial and medical applications space. And other bright spots include: Semiconductors, enabled by their broad end-market applications; life protection with our Kevlar high-strength materials; in our Nomex business, where we're benefiting from exposure to the high-growth aerospace industry; and continued strong demand for protective garments.

本季度，我們的益生菌產品組合持續保持兩位數的成長。我們的產能擴建工程即將完成，預計本季末新增產能即可投入使用。此外，我們在亞太市場的整體營養與健康產品銷售額持續維持兩位數成長。我們的泰維克業務在高速成長的工業和醫療應用領域繼續保持強勁勢頭。其他亮點包括：半導體業務，得益於其廣泛的終端市場應用；凱夫拉高強度材料在生命保護領域的應用；諾梅克斯業務，我們受益於高成長的航空航太業；以及對防護服的持續強勁需求。

We reported 2% organic revenue gains, with Safety & Construction leading the way with organic sales growth of 6%. We also realized strong organic growth of 4% in Nutrition & Health and 3% in Transportation & Advanced Polymers.

我們實現了 2% 的有機收入成長，其中安全與建築業以 6% 的有機銷售成長領先。我們在營養與健康領域實現了 4% 的強勁內生成長，在交通運輸與先進聚合物領域實現了 3% 的強勁內生成長。

Operating EBITDA for the division again grew double digits with gains in all segments driven by cost synergies, higher local price, a customer settlement in our Hemlock joint venture and higher volumes, which more than offset rising raw material cost.

該部門的營業 EBITDA 再次實現兩位數增長，所有業務板塊均有所增長，這得益於成本協同效應、當地價格上漲、與 Hemlock 合資企業達成的客戶和解以及銷量增長，這些增長足以抵消原材料成本的上漲。

We continue to focus on disciplined pricing practices. We again delivered an overall 2% improvement in price, with contribution from almost all of the segments. Our pricing discipline allows us to offset raw material costs and ensures we realize the benefit of the value our products deliver to our customers.

我們將繼續專注於穩健的定價策略。我們再次實現了整體價格2%的改善，幾乎所有細分市場都做出了貢獻。我們的定價策略使我們能夠抵消原材料成本，並確保我們實現產品為客戶帶來的價值。

Turning now to the segments on Slide 8. Electronics & Imaging organic sales declined 1%. We delivered sustained strength in our Semiconductor Technologies business through new customer wins and 3D NAND growth in Asia. Continued softness in the photovoltaic space and the impact of lower smartphone sales on our interconnect solutions business offset these gains. Operating EBITDA increased 8%, driven -- by 18%, driven by higher equity earnings, a gain on an asset sale, cost synergies and higher volume, partially offset by lower local price. Excluding equity affiliate income, operating EBITDA rose 9%. Looking forward, we anticipate equity affiliated income for the segment to decline as a result of a reduction in customer settlements, contributing approximately $175 million to $200 million this year, which is a year-over-year reduction of approximately $210 million to $240 million.

現在來看看第 8 張投影片上的各個部分。電子和影像行業的有機銷售額下降了 1%。我們在半導體技術業務方面保持了持續強勁的成長勢頭，這得益於我們在亞洲贏得的新客戶以及 3D NAND 業務的成長。光電市場持續疲軟以及智慧型手機銷售下降對我們互連解決方案業務的影響抵消了這些收益。營運 EBITDA 成長 8%，其中 18% 的成長主要得益於更高的權益收益、資產出售收益、成本協同效應和更高的銷量，但部分被較低的本地價格所抵銷。不計入權益關聯公司收入，經營性 EBITDA 成長 9%。展望未來，我們預期由於客戶結算減少，該業務板塊的權益關聯收入將下降，今年將貢獻約 1.75 億美元至 2 億美元，比上年減少約 2.1 億美元至 2.4 億美元。

Nutrition & Biosciences grew organic sales by 1%, driven by strong volume gains of 4% in Nutrition & Health. probiotics drove strong growth with sales up more than 20% this quarter. We also continued to expand our Asia footprint, where sales grew by greater than 10%. Within Industrial Biosciences, volume declined by 3%, driven by a slowdown in U.S. and Canada energy markets due to oil prices, which negatively impacted both our microbial control and biorefineries businesses. Operating EBITDA for the segment grew 4%, driven by cost synergies and a portfolio benefit, which was partially offset by higher raw material costs.

營養與生物科學業務的有機銷售額成長了 1%，這主要得益於營養與健康業務銷量強勁成長 4%。益生菌產品推動了強勁成長，本季銷售額將成長超過 20%。我們也持續擴大在亞洲的商業版圖，銷售額成長超過 10%。在工業生物科學領域，由於油價下跌導緻美國和加拿大能源市場放緩，銷量下降了 3%，這對我們的微生物控制和生物煉製業務都產生了負面影響。該業務部門的經營性 EBITDA 成長了 4%，主要得益於成本協同效應和投資組合收益，但部分被更高的原材料成本所抵消。

Safety & Construction organic sales increased 6%, led by broad-based growth across industrial, aerospace and personal protection, partially offset by a softness in construction in U.S. residential markets. Our pricing strength continues to steadily improve. In this quarter, we delivered 3% growth with improvement across all of our product lines, which was the direct benefit of targeted actions to drive value-in-use pricing across our portfolio. Operating EBITDA for the quarter was up 20%, driven by cost synergies, local pricing strength and higher volume, partially offset by higher raw material cost.

安全與建築業的有機銷售額成長了 6%，主要得益於工業、航空航太和個人防護領域的全面成長，但部分被美國住宅市場建築業的疲軟所抵消。我們的定價優勢持續穩定提升。本季度，我們實現了 3% 的成長，所有產品線均有所改善，這直接得益於我們採取有針對性的措施，推動了我們產品組合中基於使用價值的定價。本季營業 EBITDA 成長 20%，主要得益於成本綜效、本地定價優勢和銷售成長，但部分被原物料成本上漲所抵銷。

Transportation & Advanced Polymers delivered solid top and bottom line growth amid challenging end market conditions that impacted our volume growth, which was down 5%. Automotive and electronics end markets, primarily in Europe and Asia Pacific, were down due to inventory destocking. However, even given a tough macro environment, we were able to continue to deliver significant pricing strength with improvement of 8% in the quarter. Operating EBITDA grew by 7%, driven by local price increases and cost synergies, partially offset by higher raw material cost and lower volume.

儘管終端市場環境充滿挑戰，影響了我們的銷售成長（銷量下降了 5%），但交通運輸和先進聚合物業務實現了穩健的營收和利潤成長。由於庫存減少，汽車和電子產品終端市場（主要在歐洲和亞太地區）出現下滑。然而，即使在宏觀環境艱難的情況下，我們仍然能夠保持強勁的定價能力，本季價格提高了 8%。受本地價格上漲和成本協同效應的推動，營業 EBITDA 成長了 7%，但部分被更高的原材料成本和更低的銷售所抵消。

In summary, I'm excited about the performance of our portfolio this year, which enabled full year organic sales growth of 5% and operating EBITDA growth of 18% or 12% when excluding the benefit from nonoperating pension OPEB expense. This results in an operating leverage of greater than our medium-term target of 1.5x, and enabled our adjusted operating EBITDA margins to expand to greater than 28%.

總而言之，我對我們今年的投資組合表現感到興奮，這使得全年有機銷售額增長了 5%，運營 EBITDA 增長了 18%，如果排除非經營性養老金 OPEB 支出帶來的好處，則增長了 12%。這使得我們的經營槓桿率超過了中期目標 1.5 倍，並使我們的調整後經營 EBITDA 利潤率擴大到 28% 以上。

Looking beyond the first quarter, we continue to see strength in most of our end markets, including semiconductor, aerospace, Health & Nutrition, industrial and infrastructure, and expect to regain volume in certain end markets that are at a period of destocking in late 2018 and early 2019. The strength of our customer-driven innovation, additional contribution from capacity expansions and continued focus on productivity will enable us to again drive operating leverage and improved returns.

展望第一季之後，我們繼續看到大多數終端市場表現強勁，包括半導體、航空航太、健康與營養、工業和基礎設施，並預計在 2018 年末和 2019 年初，某些處於去庫存期的終端市場將恢復銷售量。我們以客戶為導向的創新實力、產能擴張帶來的額外貢獻以及對生產力的持續關注，將使我們能夠再次推動營運槓桿和提高回報。

For the full year, we expect sales to be about flat on an on -- as-reported basis, impacted by portfolio and currency headwinds. On an organic basis, as we move beyond the short-term softness we're seeing in the first quarter of 2019, we anticipate our sales growth for the remainder of the year to balance out, to be in line with the low end of our medium-term targets that we set out at our investor event in November, resulting in full year organic growth of about 2% to 3%. We expect operating EBITDA for the year to be slightly down on an as-reported basis. Excluding the anticipated declines in equity affiliate income and negative currency, we expect 2019 operating EBITDA growth of 3% to 5%, driven by cost synergies, local pricing strength and volume gains, partially offset by raw material headwinds.

預計全年銷售額將與去年持平（按報告數據計算），但會受到投資組合和匯率不利因素的影響。從有機成長的角度來看，隨著我們擺脫 2019 年第一季出現的短期疲軟局面，我們預計今年剩餘時間的銷售成長將趨於平衡，與我們在 11 月投資者活動上設定的中期目標的下限相符，從而實現全年約 2% 至 3% 的有機增長。我們預計本年度的營運 EBITDA 將按報告數據略有下降。不計預期權益關聯公司營收下降和匯率負面影響，我們預期 2019 年營業 EBITDA 將成長 3% 至 5%，主要得益於成本綜效、本地定價優勢和銷售成長，但部分會被原物料價格上漲帶來的不利因素抵銷。

More comments on our 2019 expectations can be found in the appendix. With that, I'll turn it over to Jim to cover Agriculture.

有關我們對 2019 年的預期，更多評論請參閱附錄。接下來，我將把農業方面的報道交給吉姆。

Thanks, Marc. Turning to Slide 9. Here are the highlights for the Agriculture division. Fourth quarter sales increased 1% while organic sales rose 9%. Operating EBITDA grew 4%, meeting our guidance of $2.7 billion, and operating margins expanded by 30 basis points. Our 9% growth in organic sales was driven by a solid combination of higher local price and volume gains. The local price gains were consistent across both Seed and Crop Protection and were led by Asia Pacific and Latin America. We worked hard to offset 5 points from currency pressures, primarily from the Brazilian real. Volume increased 4%, driven by gains in Crop Protection from new product sales and an early start to the safrinha selling season in Latin America. Partly offsetting the organic sales growth was portfolio reductions of 3%. The portfolio change was a result of the Brazil seeds remedy that we executed in last year's fourth quarter to complete the merger.

謝謝你，馬克。翻到第 9 張投影片。以下是農業部門的重點內容。第四季銷售額成長1%，有機銷售額成長9%。營運 EBITDA 成長 4%，達到我們 27 億美元的預期，營運利潤率成長 30 個基點。我們有機銷售額成長 9% 得益於本地價格上漲和銷售成長的雙重推動。種子和作物保護產品的本地價格上漲趨勢一致，其中亞太地區和拉丁美洲的漲幅最為顯著。我們努力抵銷了匯率壓力（主要是巴西雷亞爾）帶來的 5 個百分點的影響。銷售量成長 4%，主要得益於作物保護新產品銷售的成長以及拉丁美洲 safrinha 銷售季的提前開始。3%的產品組合縮減部分抵銷了有機銷售成長。投資組合的變化是我們在去年第四季為完成合併而對巴西種子資產採取的補救措施的結果。

Our Crop Protection business led the way with 10% organic sales growth from new product sales. Crop Protection volumes grew 5%, driven by strong sales of Vessarya, the leading treatment for Asian soybean rust in Brazil; Pyraxalt, a novel insecticide for rice brown plant hopper control in Asia Pacific; and Enlist Herbicides. These gains more than offset declines in U.S. and Canada on higher channel inventories and fall applied chemistry. Local price rose 5% as we responded to continued currency pressure, which in the fourth quarter was 4%, preliminary in Latin America.

我們的作物保護業務表現突出，新產品銷售帶來的有機銷售額成長了 10%。作物保護產品銷售量成長了 5%，這主要得益於 Vessarya（巴西領先的亞洲大豆銹病防治劑）、Pyraxalt（亞太地區用於防治水稻褐飛蝨的新型殺蟲劑）和 Enlist 除草劑的強勁銷售。由於渠道庫存增加和應用化學品下降，美國和加拿大的這些增長足以抵消其下降。受持續的匯率壓力影響，當地價格上漲了 5%，而拉丁美洲第四季的匯率壓力初步估計為 4%。

Seed organic sales increased 8%. Price increased 5% in a competitive market. Volumes improved by 3%, including early safrinha sales in Latin America of PowerCore Ultra and PowerCore Enlist, and expected market share gains in soy and corn. Corn seeds sales volumes also grew in U.S. and Canada due to the timing of shipments. The remedy loss in Brazil reduced seed sales by 6 percentage points.

有機種子銷售額成長了8%。在競爭激烈的市場環境下，價格上漲了5%。銷量成長了 3%，其中包括 PowerCore Ultra 和 PowerCore Enlist 在拉丁美洲的早期銷售，以及在大豆和玉米市場預期的市場份額增長。由於出貨時間的緣故，美國和加拿大的玉米種子銷售也有所成長。巴西的補救措施損失使種子銷量下降了 6 個百分點。

The Ag segment operating EBITDA increased 4% to $233 million. The improvement reflected sales gains and synergies partly offset by higher unit costs, investments to support new product launches, and higher commissions to support higher sales. The higher unit rates reflected higher seed costs and higher raw materials in Crop Protection as well as rising freight and warehousing expenses. We also recorded approximately $14 million in onetime benefits, including a product line sale. Both periods had nearly $60 million in licensing and collaboration agreements.

農業部門的營業 EBITDA 成長 4% 至 2.33 億美元。這一改善反映了銷售成長和協同效應，但部分被更高的單位成本、支持新產品上市的投資以及支持更高銷售額的更高佣金所抵消。較高的單位價格反映了作物保護中較高的種子成本和原材料成本，以及不斷上漲的運費和倉儲費。我們還記錄了約 1400 萬美元的一次性收益，包括產品線銷售。這兩個時期都達成了價值近 6000 萬美元的許可和合作協議。

So turning to the operational highlights on Slide 10. We've made meaningful progress against our 5 priorities to deliver shareholder value. In 2018, we delivered operating EBITDA of $2.7 billion, up 4% in a tough market. We raised the Ag division synergy targets, and in the third and fourth quarters, began to see proof points that we are recovering our share in the Brazil corn market from the remedy. In addition, we launched a strong set of new product launches in Crop Protection that are delivering top and bottom line growth.

接下來，我們來看看第 10 張投影片上的操作要點。我們在實現股東價值的5項優先事項方面取得了實質進展。2018 年，我們在艱難的市場環境下實現了 27 億美元的營業 EBITDA，成長了 4%。我們提高了農業部門的協同效應目標，並在第三季和第四季開始看到一些跡象表明，我們正在透過補救措施來恢復我們在巴西玉米市場的份額。此外，我們在作物保護領域推出了一系列強大的新產品，這些產品正在帶來營收和利潤的成長。

The highlight for the year clearly was receiving Chinese regulatory approval for 2 key traits: Enlist E3 for soybeans and Qrome for corn. We are extremely excited about both approvals, which have been in the queue for quite some time, and are a great demonstration of the strength of our innovation capability.

今年最令人矚目的成就無疑是獲得了中國監管機構對兩項關鍵性狀的批准：大豆的 Enlist E3 和玉米的 Qrome。我們對這兩項審批結果感到非常興奮，這兩項審批已經等待了相當長一段時間，也充分展現了我們強大的創新能力。

Enlist E3, the most advanced weed control trait technology for soybeans, is the larger opportunity of the 2. We expect that Enlist E3 commercial sales will begin in 2019, although the exact timing will vary by country. In the second half of 2019, we will continue to invest in the commercial sales effort. Robust ramp-up plans and extensive seed production will ensure that ENLIST E3 soybeans are broadly available to farmers in 2020. Qrome, on the other hand, already has been introduced on a limited basis in the Western Corn Belt, but likewise, will be ramping up production this year. In other words, we are actively laying the groundwork this year for a full commercial launch of ENLIST E3 and Qrome next year. We also have begun reaching out to our strategic business partners about out-licensing Qrome, Enlist and E3 in the future. In fact, we have Infective already completed initial licensing agreements with several key players.

Enlist E3 是目前​​最先進的大豆雜草控制性狀技術，也是兩項技術中機會最大的。我們預計 Enlist E3 將於 2019 年開始商業銷售，但具體時間會因國家而異。2019年下半年，我們將持續增加對商業銷售的投入。強有力的增產計劃和廣泛的種子生產將確保 ENLIST E3 大豆在 2020 年廣泛供應給農民。另一方面，Qrome 已經在西部玉米帶有限度地引入，但同樣，今年也將加大生產力度。換句話說，我們今年正在積極地為明年 ENLIST E3 和 Qrome 的全面商業發布奠定基礎。我們也已開始與我們的策略業務夥伴聯繫，討論未來對外授權 Qrome、Enlist 和 E3 的相關事宜。事實上，我們已經與幾家主要公司完成了初步的授權協議。

Today, we have provided guidance for the first half, which incorporates the Northern Hemisphere selling season. Based on what we're hearing from our customers, and due to our unique direct farmer route-to-market, we've also estimated the split between the 2 quarters. First half sales are expected to decline by low single digits percent. But excluding currency, we expect first half sales to rise by low single digits. We expect currency to be a headwind for the half, led by the euro and the Brazilian real, compared to a tailwind from currency in the prior year period. Organic sales growth is expected to be driven by new product launches, partly offset by higher channel inventories and some reduction in first year sales associated will implementing our multichannel, multi-brand strategy as we move customers to different products and brands. First half operating EBITDA is expected to be flat as gains from organic sales and cost synergies are offset by higher unit costs. Higher unit cost are driven by new product launches, whose margins will improve as they reach the economies of scales; royalties and higher ingredient cost out of China, which we will lap mid-year in 2019.

今天，我們提供了上半年的業績指引，其中包括北半球的銷售旺季。根據我們從客戶那裡聽到的回饋，以及我們獨特的直接面向農民的市場管道，我們也估算了這兩個季度之間的份額。預計上半年銷售額將下降個位數百分比。但剔除匯率因素，我們預期上半年銷售額將達到個位數低成長。我們預計，與去年同期匯率利多相比，今年上半年匯率將成為不利因素，主要受歐元和巴西雷亞爾的影響。預計有機銷售成長將主要由新產品推出推動，但部分將被通路庫存增加以及第一年銷售額下降所抵消，因為隨著我們引導客戶轉向不同的產品和品牌，實施我們的多通路、多品牌策略也會帶來一定程度的下降。預計上半年營運 EBITDA 將與上半年持平，因為有機銷售和成本綜效帶來的收益將被更高的單位成本所抵銷。單位成本上升的原因是新產品上市，隨著產品達到規模經濟效益，利潤率將會提高；此外還有來自中國的特許權使用費和更高的原料成本，我們將在 2019 年年中超越這些成本。

The first quarter is expected to see a sales decline in the low single digits percent. Excluding currency, we expect a sales increase of low single digits percent. We expect first quarter sales to be negatively impacted by timing, including an early start to the safrinha season in the fourth quarter and delayed planting decisions pushing sales into the second quarter. From a planted area perspective, we expect a shift from soybeans to be neutral to our results. While some soybean acres are expected to shift to corn, much is expected to shift to cotton and wheat. First quarter operating EBITDA is projected to decline by the low single digits percent. EBITDA drivers are similar to the first half.

預計第一季銷售額將出現個位數百分比的下滑。不計匯率影響，我們預期銷售額將成長個位數百分比。我們預計第一季的銷售額將受到時間因素的負面影響，包括第四季度薩弗林哈季的提前開始以及種植決定的延遲導致銷售額推遲到第二季度。從種植面積的角度來看，我們預計從大豆轉向其他作物對我們的結果不會產生影響。雖然預計部分大豆種植面積將轉為種植玉米，但大部分預計將轉為種植棉花和小麥。預計第一季營運 EBITDA 將下降個位數百分比。影響 EBITDA 的因素與上半年類似。

In closing, we're excited about the progress we are making and look forward to giving you further updates on what to expect from us as we get closer to spin.

最後，我們對目前的進展感到興奮，並期待在接近發佈時向您提供更多關於我們未來發展方向的最新消息。

I'll now turn it over to Lori to open the Q&A.

現在我將把問答環節交給洛里。

Thank you, Jim. With that, let's move on to your questions. First, I would like to remind you that our forward-looking statements apply to both our prepared remarks and the following Q&A. Rochelle, please provide the Q&A instruction.

謝謝你，吉姆。那麼，接下來我們來回答您的問題。首先，我想提醒各位，我們的前瞻性聲明適用於我們準備好的發言稿和接下來的問答環節。Rochelle，請提供問答環節的說明。

(Operator Instructions) And our first question today will come from P.J. Juvekar with Citi.

（操作員說明）今天我們的第一個問題來自花旗銀行的 P.J. Juvekar。

A question on Dow chemical. In polyethylene, seems like the industry had destocking occur in 4Q as oil prices came down. So where are converted inventories today? And then on to provisional inventories, I guess, the last number we saw from ACC was a 4.9 billion pounds of provisional inventory, which was quite high. So did the industry not slow down plants? And where do Dow's inventory stand?

關於陶氏化學公司的問題。聚乙烯產業似乎在第四季隨著油價下跌而出現了去庫存現象。那麼，目前已轉換庫存都在哪裡呢？接下來是暫定庫存，我想，我們從 ACC 看到的最新數字是 49 億磅的暫定庫存，這個數字相當高。那麼，該產業並沒有減緩工廠的運作速度嗎？道瓊指數的庫存狀況如何？

P.J., this is Jim. As the year -- as the quarter progressed, obviously, we saw that deceleration in oil pricing toward the end of the year, and the last couple of weeks of December were pretty quiet in terms of the export markets. And so I think that's what led to the buildup that you saw in the U.S. inventory numbers. Some of that's starting to turn around in the first quarter. We're seeing some pricing movements in January and February, so we're kind of up 3, up 3 in January and February. I would say the bulk of the new capacity came on in the back half of 2018. If you look forward into 2019, you don't have that much new capacity coming on. So I expect the operating rates are going to improve 200 to 300 basis points through the year. But clearly, we've got to rebuild some margins in the quarter. So I think it was mostly sentiment at the end of the year that drove that buildup in inventory. And I think what we will see is, as we come out of Chinese New Year, you're going to see a pull on the demand side that's going to start to rebuild those volumes and margins. Volume was up 4% for us in Packaging and Specialty Plastics. And at a DowDuPont level, we still saw strong demand in China. We were up 10%.

P.J.，我是吉姆。隨著一年的進行，隨著季度的推進，很明顯，我們看到石油價格在年底有所放緩，12 月的最後兩週出口市場相當平靜。所以我認為這就是導緻美國庫存數字上升的原因。第一季度，部分情況開始好轉。我們看到一月和二月的價格出現了一些波動，所以一月和二月的價格都上漲了 3%。我認為大部分的新增產能是在 2018 年下半年投入使用。展望2019年，並沒有太多新增產能。因此，我預計今年的營運率將提高 200 至 300 個基點。但很顯然，我們必須在本季重建一些利潤率。所以我認為，年底的市場情緒是造成庫存積壓的主要原因。我認為，隨著春節的結束，需求端將會出現拉動，這將開始重建銷售和利潤率。包裝和特殊塑膠業務的銷量成長了 4%。就陶氏杜邦公司而言，我們仍然看到中國市場需求強勁。我們領先10%。

And next, we move to Vincent Andrews with Morgan Stanley.

接下來，我們來聽聽摩根士丹利的文森安德魯斯怎麼說。

Jim, could expand a bit on the E3 soybean? What does broadly available mean? How many millions of acres are you targeting in 2020 and 2021? And what type of cost will be associated with the launch, and presumably, maintaining, still selling the other secondary herbicide-tolerant trait? And do you envision the potential ever to destack those 2 traits together?

吉姆，可以再詳細介紹一下E3大豆嗎？「廣泛可用」是什麼意思？你們在 2020 年和 2021 年的目標面積是多少百萬英畝？那麼，推出並繼續銷售其他抗除草劑特性，以及維持該特性，會產生哪些成本？您是否設想過將這兩種特性分開的可能性？

Great, Vincent. Thanks for the question. You're right, we're really excited about those 2 approvals after such a long wait. We have -- we're ramping up the parent seed production for those 2 traits this year. So 2019 will really be a very limited -- continued limited commercial launch, based on the quantities and the materials that we have. We could essentially have a couple million units -- or a couple million acres out there of both ENLIST and Qrome from our previous work. But we'll drive that really hard. As we get into 2020, you could see as much as 10% of our soybean lineup in North America into the Enlist, balanced by the other offerings that we have. On the Crop Protection side, the cost side, we've got a lot of experience already with the Enlist, Enlist Duo combination that's out there. We're spraying it on corn and spraying it on cotton. So we don't anticipate -- growers already have good sense for what that treatment per acre will cost, and then we've seen tremendous uptake on that. So demand is high and we're excited about it. We're going to ramp this up as fast as we can.

太好了，文森特。謝謝你的提問。你說得對，經過這麼長時間的等待，我們真的非常激動，終於獲得了這兩項批准。今年，我們將加大這兩個性狀的親本種子生產力。因此，2019 年將會是一個非常有限的——持續有限的商業發布，這取決於我們擁有的數量和材料。我們先前的工作成果，基本上可以擁有數百萬個單位——或者說數百萬英畝的土地，包括 ENLIST 和 Qrome。但我們會全力以赴。進入 2020 年，您可能會看到我們在北美的大豆產品線中有多達 10% 進入 Enlist 市場，同時我們還有其他產品可以與之平衡。在作物保護方面，就成本而言，我們已經累積了豐富的經驗，包括 Enlist 和 Enlist Duo 的組合產品。我們正在把它噴灑在玉米上，也在棉花上。所以我們並不預測——種植者已經很清楚每英畝這種處理的成本，而且我們已經看到這種處理方式得到了極大的推廣。所以市場需求很高，我們對此感到非常興奮。我們將盡快加快這項工作。

And Jeff Zekauskas with JPMorgan will have our next question.

接下來，摩根大通的傑夫·澤考斯卡斯將提出我們的下一個問題。

I think that 3 months ago, you thought that cash flow from operations in the fourth quarter would be about $7.5 billion, and I think it came in at roughly $5 billion. What was the difference between your expectation and what actually took place? And how do cash flows from operations look in the first quarter?

我認為三個月前，你預計第四季的經營活動現金流約為 75 億美元，而實際約為 50 億美元。你的預期與實際情況有何不同？第一季的經營活動現金流狀況如何？

Yes, Jeff, this is Howard. Let me start with the fourth quarter versus same quarter a year ago. When you look at cash from ops in the quarter was $5.1 billion. On a reported basis, that was up versus $1.8 billion, but we had the A/R securitization accounting change, so you got to do an apples-to-apples. When you make that adjustment, cash from ops in Q4 was up $900 million, which is over 20%. You're right on your point about the full year number, and I would say just a few pieces of math to make sure that you got all the math right. Merger-related costs were about $3 billion for the year, all-in. Pension contributions were about $3 billion, both the -- over $2.2 billion of that was voluntary that we did, just setting up the capital structures of the 3 companies. The one surprise delta versus the third quarter when we last talked was really working capital, specifically, inventory. There was about $1 billion higher inventory in the fourth quarter. Three drivers for that, all about equally balanced. One, you heard Jim Collins talk about the organic growth in Ag sales, so we had a really strong fourth quarter versus a year ago, so that was about 1/3 of the delta. We passed the CRT in Sadara that Jim Fitterling talked about. So we ran that asset really hard, and so that built up some inventory. And we -- I would say we exceeded our expectations. We did not expect to pass it in the first go and we did. And then the third was just the select destocking that Ed talked about in a couple of the chains. That was the delta, and it was about a $1.1 billion higher than expectation.

是的，傑夫，我是霍華德。首先，我想比較一下第四季和去年同期的情況。本季營運現金流為 51 億美元。據報道，這一數字比 18 億美元有所增長，但由於應收帳款證券化會計處理方式的改變，所以必須進行公平的比較。經過這項調整後，第四季的營運現金流增加了 9 億美元，增幅超過 20%。你說的全年數字是對的，我建議再做一些簡單的計算，確保所有計算都正確。與合併相關的總成本約為30億美元。退休金繳款約 30 億美元，其中超過 22 億美元是我們自願繳納的，只是為了建立這 3 家公司的資本結構。與我們上次討論的第三季相比，唯一出乎意料的變化是營運資本，具體來說是庫存。第四季庫存增加了約10億美元。三個驅動因素，各方面都比較均衡。第一，你聽吉姆柯林斯談到了農業銷售的有機增長，所以我們第四季度與去年同期相比表現非常強勁，這大約是差額的 1/3。我們通過了吉姆·菲特林提到的薩達拉的CRT。所以我們讓那台設備高速運轉，因此累積了一些庫存。而且——我想說，我們超出了預期。我們沒想到第一次就能通過，但我們做到了。第三點就是艾德提到的幾家連鎖店的精選清倉。這就是差額，比預期高出約 11 億美元。

And next, we'll move on to David Begleiter with Deutsche Bank.

接下來，我們將連線德意志銀行的戴維‧貝格萊特。

Ed, could you walk around the world from an activity standpoint in January and February. Is destocking completed? Where is it the worst in terms of slowdown? And specifically in China, were you expecting New Year plant shutdowns to be the usual, or maybe longer than expected, given that tariff and trade uncertainty?

艾德，從活動角度來看，你能在一月和二月環遊世界嗎？去庫存化工作完成了嗎？哪裡交通壅塞最嚴重？具體到中國，考慮到關稅和貿易的不確定性，您是否預期新年期間工廠停工時間會和往常一樣，還是會比預期更長？

Yes, thanks, David. This is Ed. Let me give you a little color on it. The softness we saw as we move through the fourth quarter from a geography standpoint was mainly China, and secondarily, a little softening in Europe. The rest of the world kind of holding up exactly where it had been. And if you break that down kind of by end market, we saw softness clearly in auto and we saw it in consumer electronics, but mostly on the smartphone side and a little bit additional softening on U.S. residential, which didn't surprise us. Actually, not -- all 3 of those weren't overly surprising, based on forecasts and other companies' comments. So that was where it was at. I would say a high portion of what we're seeing right now, to your question, is a destocking activity going on. It's hard to peg exactly when you flushed that through the system, but I would say it's probably going through the first quarter and somewhere into the second quarter, you kind of work your way through that and you get kind of back to normalized levels.

是的，謝謝你，大衛。這是艾德。讓我來為你添一點細節。從地理角度來看，我們在第四季看到的疲軟主要來自中國，其次是歐洲略有疲軟。世界其他地方基本上維持現狀。如果以終端市場細分來看，我們明顯看到汽車市場疲軟，消費性電子產品市場疲軟，但主要體現在智慧型手機領域，美國住宅市場也略有疲軟，這並不讓我們感到意外。實際上並非如此——根據預測和其他公司的評論，這三件事都不算太出人意料。事情就是這樣。就你的問題而言，我認為我們目前看到的很大一部分現像是正在進行的去庫存活動。很難準確地指出你何時徹底解決了這個問題，但我認為可能是在第一季度到第二季度之間，你慢慢地解決了這個問題，然後就恢復到了正常水平。

So as you look at the forecast by way on the DuPont side, that's kind of what we teed up, a lighter first half of the year. Second half of the year, about where we expect with the leverage to the bottom line on our growth rate, very similar to what we said at the guidance at the November investor meeting, but a little bit more muted in that first quarter and into the second quarter, based on the destocking.

所以，從杜邦公司的預測來看，我們預計今年上半年業務會比較輕。下半年，我們的成長率與預期基本一致，這主要得益於利潤成長的槓桿作用，與我們在 11 月投資者會議上給出的指導意見非常相似，但由於去庫存的影響，第一季和第二季的成長速度會稍慢一些。

And maybe just one overall comment also. If you look at the -- all of the DuPont end markets, I would say when you break that down to percentages, about 75% of the portfolio did exactly what it did all year. And then the soft areas I just mentioned was maybe 25% of the portfolio where we're seeing that destocking take place. And again, that will correct itself over the next few months.

或許還可以補充一句整體看法。如果你看一下杜邦的所有終端市場，我會說，當你把它們分解成百分比時，大約 75% 的投資組合全年表現都和去年一樣。然後，我剛才提到的那些軟弱領域，可能佔投資組合的 25%，我們正在看到這些領域去庫存化。而且，這種情況會在接下來的幾個月內自行修正。

And next, we move on to Chris Parkinson with Credit Suisse.

接下來，我們連線瑞士信貸的克里斯帕金森。

It seems there are a few moving parts within Specialty with certain end markets trending fairly well and others showing at least some degree of weakness. Can you just parse out the key growth trends, specifically for Nutrition & Biosciences and maybe anything on E&I and S&C? And just whether or not any near-term cautiousness, would you characterize that as be driven by China trade tariffs versus something else you're seeing in that end-market?

專業市場內部似乎存在一些變數，某些終端市場發展勢頭良好，而另一些則表現出一定程度的疲軟。能否具體分析營養與生物科學領域的關鍵成長趨勢，以及可能涉及的教育與創新與運動健身領域？那麼，您認為近期市場出現的謹慎情緒是由中國貿易關稅驅動的，還是由您在終端市場觀察到的其他因素所驅動的呢？

Chris, this is Marc, let me take that one. I mean, high-level N&B, we're seeing strength in most of the segments. The food and beverage market continues to be solid for us. Probiotics obviously continues to be a star, driving growth in Asia in general. And that includes Asia, specialty food ingredients, our systems offerings are continuing to gain position there. The area of weakness is more on the Industrial Biosciences side, and this is really connected to, we think, temporary factors, including U.S. residential construction. We have a lot of sales in the Sorona product into the carpet market, and that was impacted. And then the sort of dynamics in the oil and gas industry have an effect on our microbial control business. And so those are the 2 areas that we're tracking and expecting to see some improvement. In terms of the other segments you mentioned, I mean, E&I is kind of a continuation of what we've been saying for the last couple of quarters, which is photovoltaics has continued to be a tough space. Although volumes are coming back, we're still suffering a lot of pricing pressure there. We are expecting that to improve through 2019. And semi continues to be a bright spot for us. Consumer electronics market was down in the fourth quarter, as we mentioned, from some smartphones. But we are expecting again a recovery in the second half of this year. And Safety & Construction, you asked about, I'd just say across the board, a lot of strength in the end markets there, and that's a real bright spot for us through 2019. U.S. residential construction is less than 20% of that -- of the Safety & Construction space. That's the only soft spot for us right now in S&C.

克里斯，這位是馬克，讓我來接手吧。我的意思是，從高階N&B（網路與商業）領域來看，我們看到大多數細分市場都表現強勁。食品飲料市場對我們來說依然穩健。益生菌顯然繼續保持著強勁的成長勢頭，推動了亞洲整體市場的成長。這其中也包括亞洲，以及特種食品配料領域，我們的系統產品正在那裡不斷擴大市場份額。弱點主要集中在工業生物科學領域，我們認為這實際上與一些暫時性因素有關，包括美國的住宅建設。我們的 Sorona 產品在地毯市場銷售量很大，這受到了影響。石油和天然氣產業的動態變化也會對我們的微生物控制業務產生影響。所以，以上就是我們正在關注並期待看到一些改善的兩個領域。至於你提到的其他領域，我的意思是，E&I 領域某種程度上延續了我們過去幾季一直在說的內容，那就是光電領域仍然充滿挑戰。雖然銷量正在回升，但我們仍然面臨著很大的價格壓力。我們預計這種情況在2019年會有所改善。半專業化仍然是我們的一大亮點。正如我們之前提到的，受部分智慧型手機銷售下滑的影響，消費性電子市場在第四季出現下滑。但我們預計今年下半年將再次出現復甦。至於您提到的安全與建築領域，我想說的是，總體而言，終端市場表現非常強勁，這對我們來說，是 2019 年的一大亮點。美國住宅建築業佔安全與建築領域總量的不到 20%。這是我們目前在體能訓練上唯一的軟肋。

And we'll move on to John McNulty with BMO Capital Markets.

接下來，我們將連線 BMO 資本市場的 John McNulty。

Jim, in MatCo, it seems like there's a lot of levers that you're looking to pull to try to shore up things. I guess, as we look through the year and you get a little bit past this destock phase -- I mean, look, the first quarter numbers looked pretty difficult. Like, can we get to a period where you're down high-single digits for the year in that business with all the levers that you're pulling? And maybe can you walk us through some of those levers that you do have at your disposal now?

吉姆，在MatCo，你似乎想透過很多手段來鞏固現狀。我想，當我們回顧這一年，並稍微度過去庫存階段之後——我的意思是，你看，第一季的數字看起來相當糟糕。比如說，在你們採取了所有這些措施之後，我們能否讓你們這個產業全年的虧損降到個位數以上？您能否為我們詳細介紹一下您目前可以利用的一些手段？

John, so I'd say a couple of things. In the core business, we were down about $120 million in the quarter. The things that we're trying to do right now, obviously, pricing has stabilized and is starting to improve on plastics, and I'm seeing some signs of that on pMDI as well. And so that will help us with as we build through the quarter. Second quarter, third quarter, typically the strongest demand quarters, so we'll build into that. So we're going to have to see kind of a mirror image on the first half of the year to what happened in the back half of '18. But that's what we're driving towards.

約翰，我想說幾點。在核心業務方面，我們本季虧損約 1.2 億美元。我們現在正在努力做的事情，很顯然，塑膠的價格已經穩定下來並開始好轉，我也在 pMDI 上看到了一些這樣的跡象。這樣一來，就能幫助我們順利完成本季的工作。第二季和第三季通常是需求最旺盛的季度，所以我們會專注在這些季度。所以，今年上半年的情況可能會與 2018 年下半年的情況形成某種鏡像關係。但這就是我們努力的方向。

As I mentioned on the broadcast, we're off on CapEx, so we finished the year at $2.5 billion of CapEx, and I think we're going to stay at those kind of levels on CapEx. So that helps our cash. As we continue to separate out the 3 divisions, that's going to obviously help some of the cost burn and help us get the stranded costs out through the year as well. And then we're going to defer some spending. It won't be anything that will damage, plant reliability. We'll still continue to do maintenance and those kind of things, but we'll defer some discretionary spending that we don't need to do right now into latter half of the year or even into 2020, depending on how long the macro continues.

正如我在廣播中提到的，我們在資本支出方面有所進展，今年結束時資本支出為 25 億美元，我認為我們將保持在這個水平的資本支出。這樣有助於我們的現金流。隨著我們繼續將這 3 個部門分開，這顯然將有助於降低成本，並幫助我們在一年內消除擱置成本。然後我們將推遲一些支出。這不會對工廠的可靠性造成任何損害。我們仍將繼續進行維護等工作，但我們將一些目前不需要的可自由支配支出推遲到今年下半年甚至 2020 年，具體取決於宏觀經濟狀況持續的時間。

And next, we'll move to Steve Byrne with Bank of America Merrill Lynch.

接下來，我們將連線美國銀行美林證券的史蒂夫伯恩。

This is Ian on for Steve. Wanted to follow up on the outlook in material and in Dow and Corteva. And appreciate you aren't giving guidance for these segments today, but I think some investors might be a little confused about the first half and one quarter outlook, taking into account there should be significant synergies in both these businesses. So any color you can provide on the bridge, to how we should think about full year EBITDA for those segments, would be helpful.

這裡是伊恩替史蒂夫發言。想了解材料產業以及陶氏化學和科迪華的前景。我知道您今天沒有對這些業務板塊給出業績指引，但考慮到這兩個業務板塊應該會有顯著的協同效應，我認為一些投資者可能會對上半年和第一季的展望感到有些困惑。所以，如果您能就橋樑問題提供任何見解，幫助我們思考這些部門的全年 EBITDA，那將非常有幫助。

Yes, on Materials Science, what I would say is we continue to see the businesses grow at about 1.5x GDP. So that, from a demand standpoint, I do not see a demand problem. Most of the pressures that we felt toward the end of the year were really oil price and spread compression pressures on top of the negative sentiment that was developing through the fourth quarter. And so obviously, we're turning the corner on that right now and trying to rebuild that. And I think it'll take us through the first quarter and into the second quarter to get that built back. Having said that, the new capacity that's coming on in our industry this year is not all that much. Most of the new capacity, the biggest amount came on in 2018. So at these rates, it looks like operating rates are going to continue to increase throughout the year. And then, obviously, not trying to predict oil price, but oil price hit the low 50s in terms of dollars per barrel. So if we see any strengthening in the oil price, that will be helpful through the year.

是的，就材料科學而言，我想說的是，我們繼續看到相關企業以大約 1.5 倍 GDP 的速度成長。因此，從需求角度來看，我認為不存在需求問題。年底我們感受到的大部分壓力其實來自油價和價差壓縮壓力，再加上第四季不斷增強的負面情緒。所以很明顯，我們現在正扭轉局面，努力重建它。我認為我們需要度過第一季和第二季才能恢復正常。話雖如此，今年我們產業新增產能並不算多。在新增產能中，大部分（最多）是在 2018 年投入使用的。照此速度，營運率似乎將在今年持續成長。然後，很顯然，我並不是想預測油價，但油價確實跌到了每桶50美元左右的低點。因此，如果我們看到油價走強，那將對全年都有幫助。

And Ian, this is Jim Collins for Corteva. It's really kind of the same story for the first quarter and the first half, kind of 3 core messages. And you're right, we've got some good sales growth, we've got synergies flowing through. But those are being offset, first, by some pretty significant currency headwinds. And you'll see in the outlook about -- well over $300 million of top line hit, mostly during the Brazilian real, but we picked up a lot of euro exposure, too, here in the first half, along with some of those Eastern European countries.

伊恩，這位是科迪華公司的吉姆柯林斯。第一季和上半年的情況其實差不多，都圍繞著三個核心訊息。你說得對，我們的銷售成長勢頭良好，協同效應也正在發揮作用。但這些不利因素首先被一些相當大的匯率逆風所抵銷。你會在展望中看到——超過 3 億美元的收入損失，主要是在巴西雷亞爾貶值期間，但我們在上半年也獲得了大量的歐元敞口，以及一些東歐國家的收入損失。

In addition to that, we have a little bit of timing going on, we had some shift of some revenues that kind of moved early into that safrinha season and into the fourth quarter. And then these market facilitation program payments that resulted out of USDA's work with the Trump administration on helping growers, some of these guys had a lot of cash right there at the end of the quarter, and so they went up and bought up a little bit early. So we saw some North American volumes that hit early. And then I'd say that maybe the third offset is cost of goods. We're picking up some raw material cost from shipments in from China as they worked on some of their environmental reforms, and it's moving some of those raws up. And then as we increased the penetration of some of these new products, our royalty rates are moving up on us a little bit. So that kind of -- that explains the half. We're not really, you're right, talking about full year at this point. We'll give you some more color on that a little bit later, but I think about the year, that we'll be generally up on EBITDA and we'll be able to talk about that as the full year really unfolds.

除此之外，我們還有一些時間安排上的問題，一些收入的轉移提前到了春季銷售旺季和第四季。然後，由於美國農業部與川普政府合作幫助種植戶，獲得了市場便利化計劃的付款，其中一些人在季度末手頭上有很多現金，所以他們提前大量購入了商品。所以我們看到一些北美地區的銷售提前到帳了。然後我認為第三個抵銷因素可能是商品成本。由於中國進行了一些環境改革，我們從中國進口的原物料成本增加，導致部分原物料價格上漲。隨著這些新產品的滲透率不斷提高，我們的版稅率也隨之略為上漲。所以，這就解釋了那一半的原因。你說得對，我們現在還不是在討論全年的情況。稍後我們會更詳細地介紹一下，但我認為今年總體上我們的 EBITDA 將有所增長，隨著全年業績的逐步展開，我們將能夠討論這個問題。

And next, we'll hear from Jonas Oxgaard with Bernstein.

接下來，我們將聽聽 Jonas Oxgaard 與 Bernstein 的對話。

One of the bright spots in last year was the pricing in transportation, was up just quarter after quarter after quarter. But in your guidance for the year, you say -- or it looks like you expect overall pricing to be about flat. But -- and you talk about transportation being offset by electronics. But electronics was only down about 1%. So are you expecting the transportation price gains to cease? Or how should we think about this?

去年的一大亮點是運輸價格，該價格連續幾季上漲。但您在年度業績指引中表示——或者看起來您預計整體價格將保持穩定。但是——你卻說電子產品正在抵銷交通運輸的影響。但電子產品僅下降了約 1%。所以你認為運輸價格上漲的趨勢會停止嗎？或者我們應該如何看待這個問題？

Jim, this is Marc. I'll take that one. No, we're expecting to continue to see some pricing this year roll through in transportation and advanced polymers, based on continued tightness in the nylon chain. And our performance continues to be strong there in terms of both finding new applications for high temperature and specialty nylons. And we expect the industry is going to continue to kind of operate at about the same levels as 2018. So I think we'll see some more pricing. We do have some price pressure in E&I that came through in the fourth quarter associated with photovoltaics largely. And as you said, it doesn't offset the pricing gains in the other segment. And so net-net, there's some benefits there that will probably continue through 2019.

吉姆，這位是馬克。我選那個。不，我們預計今年運輸和先進聚合物領域的一些價格上漲趨勢將繼續持續，這是由於尼龍供應鏈持續緊張所致。我們在高溫尼龍和特種尼龍的新應用領域繼續保持強勁的業績。我們預計該行業將繼續以與 2018 年大致相同的水平運作。所以我認為我們會看到更多定價資訊。第四季度，E&I產業確實面臨一些價格壓力，這主要與光電發電有關。正如你所說，這並不能抵消其他細分市場的價格上漲。因此總而言之，這其中的一些好處可能會持續到 2019 年。

And next, we'll hear from Arun Viswanathan with RBC Capital Markets.

接下來，我們將聽取加拿大皇家銀行資本市場的 Arun Viswanathan 的演講。

I just wanted to review my assessment of the guidance. It looks like, on first blush, the Q1 operating EBITDA may be in the $4.5 billion to $5 billion range. And I know it's difficult to guide explicitly. And then the full year looks like it could be down a little bit. I guess, is that right? Or are you expecting year-on-year growth in both full year Q1 -- or sorry, Q1, and full year EBITDA?

我只是想再次確認我對該指導意見的評估。初步看來，第一季營運 EBITDA 可能在 45 億美元至 50 億美元之間。我知道明確指導是很難的。那麼全年來看，業績可能會略為下滑。我想是這樣吧？或者，您是否預期全年第一季（或抱歉，第一季度）和全年 EBITDA 均實現同比增長？

Yes, Arun, maybe we can talk it offline. I mean, we don't give an exact number. I would say, when you look at the slide, operating EBITDA, we're guiding down low teens percent, but it's really 3 different stories, right? It's something, the Jim Collins discussion around Corteva, around stronger second quarter versus first quarter because of the seed shift with the commodity prices. Fitterling already covered the MatCo piece around building margin back. So the first quarter is probably going to look more like a mirror image of Q4, although with a little bit of the averaging effect because we entered December at the low margin point of the quarter, so that's how we entered January and we're rebuilding back. I mean, Jim talked about the 3 and 3 polyethylene in January and February, and then already some announcements out on isocyanates. And then I'll let either Ed or Marc talk about Spec co, if you want to give any more color on that.

是的，阿倫，或許我們可以私下談談。我的意思是，我們不給出確切的數字。我想說，當你查看幻燈片時，經營 EBITDA 我們預計會下降 10% 左右，但這實際上是 3 個不同的故事，對吧？吉姆柯林斯就科迪華公司展開的討論，認為由於大宗商品價格的種子輪動，第二季業績將比第一季更強勁。Fitterling 已經通報 MatCo 重建利潤率的相關情況。所以第一季的情況可能更像是第四季度的鏡像，儘管會有一些平均效應，因為我們在 12 月進入了季度利潤率最低的階段，所以 1 月我們也是這種情況，現在我們正在重建。我的意思是，Jim 在一月和二月談到了 3 和 3 聚乙烯，然後已經發布了一些關於異氰酸酯的公告。然後，如果你想對 Spec 公司做更多補充說明，我會讓 Ed 或 Marc 來談談這件事。

Yes, no -- look, I'll take Spec co one. I think the first quarter will be our lightest, probably bleed a little of that destocking I talked about still into the second quarter, and then we're expecting normal trends the second half for the year, from a growth rate; from an EBITDA standpoint; and leverage, as we talked about at the Investor Day, at least 1.5x on leverage side. So we'll build back there. And it's very clear, talking to our channel partners, that the destocking is taking place. If I can -- just one data point, because the biggest weakness we saw was auto, and it was auto in China. And the auto builds were down 18%, and -- but the car sales actually were down 13%. So you kind of see it at the high macro level that the destocking is taking place, which by the way, is good once we're through it.

是的，不——聽著，我要Spec公司的一個。我認為第一季將是我們業務最清淡的季度，我之前提到的去庫存的影響可能會延續到第二季​​度，然後我們預計下半年增長率、EBITDA 和槓桿率（正如我們在投資者日上討論的那樣，槓桿率至少為 1.5 倍）都將恢復正常。所以我們會在那裡重建。與我們的通路夥伴溝通後，可以非常清楚地感受到，去庫存化正在進行中。如果可以的話——我只想提供一個數據點，因為我們發現的最大弱點是汽車產業，而且是中國的汽車產業。汽車產量下降了 18%，但汽車銷量實際上下降了 13%。所以從宏觀層面來看，我們可以看到去庫存正在發生，順便說一句，一旦我們度過了這個階段，那將是一件好事。

And next, we'll move on to John Roberts with UBS.

接下來，我們將連線瑞銀集團的約翰羅伯茲。

Did you only give full year guidance for Specialty co because Dow and Corteva don't plan to give full year guidance, given the less predictability of their businesses? Or do they plan to give full year guidance when they're independent?

您之所以只給出 Specialty Co 的全年業績指引，是因為鑑於 Dow 和 Corteva 的業務不確定性較高，它們不打算給出全年業績指引嗎？或者他們是否計劃在獨立運營後提供全年業績指引？

I'll cover MatCo. This is Howard. I mean, no, we do not plan on giving full year guidance for Dow. I would tell you that we tried that last year, we gave the full year guidance. I would say the bulls didn't like the numbers we gave, the bears we didn't like the numbers we gave. We met the guidance that we delivered back in January. So we're going to do it 1 quarter at a time. We'll try to give you all the moving parts as best as we know, and then you can insert the margins per the different capacities that you would expect.

我將負責MatCo的報導。這是霍華德。我的意思是，不，我們不打算提供道瓊斯全年業績指引。我可以告訴你，我們去年嘗試過這樣做，我們給了全年的指導。我想說，多頭不喜歡我們給的數字，空頭也不喜歡我們給的數字。我們達到了1月提出的指導方針。所以我們將一次完成一個季度。我們會盡我們所知，盡可能地把所有相關因素都告訴您，然後您可以根據您預期的不同容量插入相應的邊距。

Yes, and for Corteva, clearly a lot of moving parts in the market, so we're feeling good about giving first half, which is the bulk of our business in 2019. So it's pretty indicative of how our -- of kind of how our year is going to start. But we'll be giving a lot more color on how we view full year as we go forward at the interactions we'll have with you guys. And we'll keep updating that as it unfolds.

是的，對於科迪華來說，市場上顯然有很多變數，所以我們對上半年的業績感到樂觀，因為上半年是我們 2019 年業務的大部分。所以這很能預示我們今年的開局會是什麼樣子。但隨著我們與大家的互動，我們將更詳細地闡述我們對全年的看法。我們會隨著事態發展持續更新報道。

And our final question today will come from Robert Koort with Goldman Sachs.

今天的最後一個問題來自高盛的羅伯特·庫爾特。

Ed, I think you talked about destocking ending some time in the first half. And I guess I'm struck by, on the Dow side of things, there's supply chain, procurement officers that maybe felt they could buy something cheaper, so that's part of why there's destocking there. You mentioned the auto markets in the DuPont business. But what other conditions are out there that leads to such an expanded destock cycle? And how do you calibrate when it returns? Is that order books you see out there? Is it a hunch? Is it some historic precedent? What gives you that comfort?

艾德，我想你之前說過過去庫存化會在上半年某個時候結束。我覺得讓我感到驚訝的是，就道瓊斯指數而言，供應鏈和採購人員可能覺得他們可以買到更便宜的東西，所以這就是去庫存的部分原因。您在杜邦業務中提到了汽車市場。但還有哪些條件會導致如此大規模的去庫存週期？當它返回時，你如何進行校準？你看到的那些是訂單簿嗎？這是直覺嗎？這是歷史上的先例嗎？是什麼讓你感到安心？

Yes. One data point I would point to is a lot of third-party forecasts out there on some of these different end markets. And auto builds globally, maybe just use IHS. They are still talking about auto builds being down 3.5% first quarter, about 1% second quarter, then building up to 4% to 5% in the second half of the year. So you can kind of -- I'd think of it as an indicator of kind of how you'd see the destocking take place, more so than the downturn in the auto build. I think on the smartphone side, there's 4 or 5 forecasts out there talking to the cellphone makers, and some are slightly up, some are slightly down. But I'd say cellphone sales look like they would flatten out in 2019. So again, the destocking's happening now, but it's not like there's a continuing drop in demand in the business. And I'd also say, on the housing side, although the smaller of the 3 soft areas, there's clearly forecasts out there, third-party forecasts that say housing is going to be up 2% on the year, but actually down 1% in the first quarter. So again, I think those trends all foretell a little bit extra severeness with the destocking and a slight down market, and that will recover.

是的。我想指出的一點是，市面上有許多針對不同終端市場的第三方預測。如果是全域自動構建，或許只需使用 IHS 即可。他們仍然認為，汽車產量第一季將下降 3.5%，第二季將下降約 1%，然後在下半年回升至 4% 至 5%。所以你可以把它看作是庫存減少的某種指標，而不是汽車產量下降的指標。我認為在智慧型手機方面，目前有四、五家手機製造商參與了預測，其中一些預測略有上升，一些預測略有下降。但我認為手機銷量在 2019 年可能會趨於平穩。所以，現在確實在進行去庫存，但這並不意味著該行業的需求持續下降。另外，在住房方面，雖然住房是三個疲軟領域中較小的一個，但顯然有第三方預測表明，住房全年將上漲 2%，但實際上第一季將下降 1%。所以，我認為這些趨勢都預示著去庫存和市場小幅下跌的程度會略微加劇，但市場終將復甦。

Thank you, everyone, for joining our call. We appreciate your interest in DowDuPont. For your reference, a copy of our transcript should be posted on DowDuPont's website later today. This concludes our call.

感謝各位參加我們的電話會議。感謝您對陶氏杜邦的關注。供您參考，我們的成績單副本將於今天晚些時候發佈在陶氏杜邦公司的網站上。通話到此結束。

And that will conclude today's conference call. We thank you for your participation.

今天的電話會議到此結束。感謝您的參與。