Dominion Energy 是一家美國電力和天然氣公用事業公司。該公司目前正在建設一個風電場。該項目正在按計劃進行,該公司正在與有關當局合作,以確保沒有延誤。該公司希望銷售額增長 1-1.5%,並產生 60 億美元的受監管投資。此外,該公司在 Millstone 的利潤率預計將同比提高 0.08 美元。
該公司還在進行戰略審查,以便做出符合股東、員工和客戶最大利益的決策。 Dominion Energy 致力於為其客戶提供負擔得起的能源,其費率遠低於國家和地區平均水平。為了實現這一目標,公司不斷努力改進其流程,利用創新技術並採用最佳實踐。這些努力使公司能夠為股東和客戶創造價值。
公司第三季度收益電話會議的目的是向投資者介紹公司的最新業績,並討論公司對其業務組合和資本配置的戰略審查。由於該公司的股價一直表現不佳以及當前的宏觀經濟環境,因此正在進行審查。筆者預計,審核將耗時數月,不會對公司的財務計劃產生重大影響。該公司的收益和指引保持不變。 Dominion Energy 目前正在建設一條新的 500 kV 輸電線路,預計將於 2025 年完工。該公司還在開展各種其他項目,包括開發新的渦輪機安裝船和建造 10 座新的太陽能存儲項目。
本文討論了一個名為 CVOW 的項目的開發,這是弗吉尼亞州的一個海上風電項目。該項目預計將創造就業機會並吸引對該州的投資。該項目按計劃按預算進行,大部分項目成本已確定。
Dominion Energy 目前正在進行自上而下的審查,以最大限度地為股東創造長期價值。審查可能會導致收益增長方面的不同結果。該公司正在考慮各種選擇以減輕對其財務計劃的任何潛在影響,包括查看運營效率和審查資本分配。目標是找到最有效的資金來源來為其增長計劃提供資金,同時保持每股收益增長和信用狀況。
Dominion Energy 是一家上市公司,為美國客戶提供電力和天然氣。該公司總部位於弗吉尼亞州里士滿,在 22 個州開展業務。 Dominion Energy 是弗吉尼亞州和北卡羅來納州最大的電力供應商,也是南卡羅來納州第二大電力供應商。該公司還擁有美國最大的天然氣儲存系統。
2018 年,Dominion Energy 的收入為 116 億美元,僱傭了大約 16,000 名員工。該公司是標準普爾 500 指數和財富 500 強的成員。
使用警語:中文譯文來源為 Google 翻譯,僅供參考,實際內容請以英文原文為主
Operator
Operator
Welcome to the Dominion Energy Third Quarter Earnings Conference Call. (Operator Instructions) I would now like to turn the call over to David McFarland, Vice President, Investor Relations. Please go ahead.
歡迎參加 Dominion Energy 第三季度收益電話會議。 (操作員說明)我現在想將電話轉給投資者關係副總裁 David McFarland。請繼續。
David McFarland - VP of IR
David McFarland - VP of IR
Good morning, and thank you for joining today's call. Earnings materials, including today's prepared remarks, contain forward-looking statements and estimates that are subject to various risks and uncertainties. Please refer to our SEC filings, including our most recent annual reports on Form 10-K and our quarterly reports on Form 10-Q for a discussion of factors that may cause results to differ from management's estimates and expectations.
早上好,感謝您加入今天的電話會議。收益材料,包括今天準備好的評論,包含受各種風險和不確定性影響的前瞻性陳述和估計。請參閱我們提交給美國證券交易委員會的文件,包括我們最近關於表格 10-K 的年度報告和我們關於表格 10-Q 的季度報告,以討論可能導致結果與管理層的估計和預期不同的因素。
This morning, we will discuss some measures of our company's performance that differ from those recognized by GAAP. Reconciliation of our non-GAAP measures to the most directly comparable GAAP financial measures, which we can calculate, are contained in the earnings release kit. I encourage you to visit our Investor Relations website to review webcast slides, as well as the earnings release kit.
今天上午,我們將討論一些與公認會計原則不同的公司業績衡量標準。我們的非公認會計原則措施與我們可以計算的最直接可比的公認會計原則財務措施的對賬包含在收益發布工具包中。我鼓勵您訪問我們的投資者關係網站,查看網絡廣播幻燈片以及收益發布工具包。
Joining today's call are Bob Blue, Chair, President and Chief Executive Officer; Jim Chapman, Executive Vice President, Chief Financial Officer; Diane Leopold, Executive Vice President, Chief Operating Officer; and other members of the executive management team.
加入今天的電話會議的是主席、總裁兼首席執行官 Bob Blue; Jim Chapman,執行副總裁兼首席財務官; Diane Leopold,執行副總裁兼首席運營官;和執行管理團隊的其他成員。
I will now turn the call over to Bob.
我現在將把電話轉給 Bob。
Robert M. Blue - President, CEO & Chairman of the Board
Robert M. Blue - President, CEO & Chairman of the Board
Thank you, David. Good morning, everyone. We delivered strong third quarter results and are well positioned to meet our expectations for the year. We also have been steadily executing on our investment programs focused on decarbonization. This successful execution is already benefiting our customers, communities, the environment and our investors.
謝謝你,大衛。大家,早安。我們提供了強勁的第三季度業績,並有能力滿足我們對今年的預期。我們還一直在穩步執行以脫碳為重點的投資計劃。這種成功的執行已經使我們的客戶、社區、環境和我們的投資者受益。
I'll begin with safety. Through September, our OSHA recordable rate was 0.53, which remains low relative to our historical levels and substantially below industry averages. We take pride in our relentless focus on safety, and it is the first of our company's core values.
我將從安全開始。截至 9 月,我們的 OSHA 可記錄率為 0.53,相對於我們的歷史水平仍然較低,並且大大低於行業平均水平。我們為我們對安全的不懈關注而感到自豪,這是我們公司的首要核心價值觀。
Next, I'd like to provide some context to our announcement this morning of our initiation of a top-to-bottom business review, with the goal of ensuring that Dominion Energy is best positioned to create significant long-term value for our shareholders.
接下來,我想為我們今天上午宣布啟動自上而下的業務審查提供一些背景信息,目的是確保 Dominion Energy 處於最佳位置,為我們的股東創造重大的長期價值。
In recent years, we've taken a series of strategic steps both through M&A and through the capital allocation decisions to materially increase the state-regulated profile of our business. Our strategy remains anchored on this pure-play, state-regulated utility operating profile that centers around premier states that share the philosophy that a common sense approach to energy policy and regulation prioritizes safety, reliability, affordability and increasingly sustainability. These states also strive to create environments that promote sensible economic growth, which, like the rising tide, lifts all boats.
近年來,我們通過併購和資本配置決策採取了一系列戰略步驟,以顯著提高我們業務的國家監管形象。我們的戰略仍然立足於這種純粹的、受國家監管的公用事業運營概況,該概況以主要州為中心,這些州共享這樣一種理念,即能源政策和監管的常識性方法優先考慮安全性、可靠性、可負擔性和日益增長的可持續性。這些州還努力創造促進合理經濟增長的環境,就像漲潮一樣,舉起所有船隻。
Our state-regulated utility model offers investors long-term earnings visibility and is enhanced by our concentration in these fast-growing constructive and business-friendly states. To state the obvious, we're monitoring what's going on in the broader economy. Like everyone, we're seeing inflation, supply chain limitations and higher fuel prices, all having an impact on customer rates and our balance sheet strength. We're keenly aware of the economic pressures that are affecting our customers and taking seriously our core mission to deliver reliable, affordable and clean energy to our customers, while creating value for our shareholders.
我們受國家監管的實用新型為投資者提供長期收益可見性,並通過我們對這些快速增長的建設性和商業友好州的專注而得到增強。顯而易見,我們正在監控更廣泛的經濟中正在發生的事情。像所有人一樣,我們看到了通貨膨脹、供應鏈限制和更高的燃料價格,所有這些都對客戶利率和我們的資產負債表實力產生了影響。我們敏銳地意識到影響我們客戶的經濟壓力,並認真對待我們的核心使命,即為我們的客戶提供可靠、負擔得起的清潔能源,同時為我們的股東創造價值。
So far, our company has navigated this new environment well. Our safety and reliability metrics have remained strong. As we steadily execute on our industry-leading decarbonization investment programs, we must provide energy that is affordable. We're, therefore, proud that residential rates at our electric utilities remain well below state and national averages. We've also found creative approaches to provide customer relief. I'll recap a few recent examples.
到目前為止,我們公司已經很好地駕馭了這個新環境。我們的安全性和可靠性指標一直保持強勁。隨著我們穩步執行行業領先的脫碳投資計劃,我們必須提供負擔得起的能源。因此,我們感到自豪的是,我們電力公司的住宅價格仍遠低於州和全國平均水平。我們還找到了創造性的方法來為客戶提供救濟。我將回顧一些最近的例子。
First, we supported legislation in Virginia, which gave customers a fresh start by forgiving $200 million of customer arrears in the depths of the COVID crisis. We also agreed to more than $11 million of forgiveness in South Carolina. Second, we elected to recover $200 million through base rates currently in effect in connection with the suspension of RIDER-RGGI as Virginia works towards its exit from that program. Lastly, we voluntarily agreed in Virginia to spread the recovery of the under-recovered fuel balance over a 3-year period to reduce the effect on customer bills. And we have done all of these things while moving forward with our growth plan and delivering results that met our financial guidance just as we did again this quarter.
首先,我們支持弗吉尼亞州的立法,該立法通過在 COVID 危機最嚴重的時期免除 2 億美元的客戶欠款,為客戶提供了一個新的開始。我們還同意在南卡羅來納州提供超過 1100 萬美元的寬恕。其次,我們選擇通過目前有效的與 RIDER-RGGI 暫停相關的基本費率收回 2 億美元,因為弗吉尼亞州正在努力退出該計劃。最後,我們在弗吉尼亞州自願同意將回收不足的燃料餘額的回收分攤到 3 年,以減少對客戶賬單的影響。我們已經完成了所有這些事情,同時推進了我們的增長計劃並提供了符合我們財務指導的結果,就像我們在本季度再次所做的那樣。
As you can tell, I'm very proud of these accomplishments, and thank all my Dominion Energy colleagues who contributed to these successes. But our work is far from done. There are 2 drivers behind today's announcement of a review: one, enhancing shareholder value; and two, ensuring the sustainability of the long-term scope and duration of our regulated decarbonization investment opportunity.
如您所知,我為這些成就感到非常自豪,並感謝為這些成功做出貢獻的所有 Dominion Energy 同事。但我們的工作還遠未完成。今天宣布審查的背後有兩個驅動因素:一,提升股東價值;第二,確保我們受監管的脫碳投資機會的長期範圍和持續時間的可持續性。
First, enhancing shareholder value. We've been delivering industry-leading safety and reliability performance, executing on our sizable investment programs, achieving regulatory outcomes that are constructive and delivering results that have met our financial guidance. Yet our relative share price performance has not met our expectations, including over the past several years as we've been successfully executing our plan.
一是提升股東價值。我們一直在提供行業領先的安全性和可靠性性能,執行我們的大型投資計劃,實現具有建設性的監管成果,並提供符合我們財務指導的結果。然而,我們的相對股價表現並未達到我們的預期,包括在過去幾年中,我們一直在成功執行我們的計劃。
While I'm confident in our state-regulated utility strategy, and I would add that feedback I get from our investors almost unanimously supports our strategic direction, I believe now is the right time to initiate this review.
雖然我對我們受國家監管的公用事業戰略充滿信心,並且我要補充一點,我從投資者那裡得到的反饋幾乎一致支持我們的戰略方向,但我相信現在是啟動這項審查的合適時機。
And second, our company has sizable investment opportunities, focused on decarbonization and reliability that extend well beyond our 5-year plan, in fact, well into the next decade. These customer beneficial programs are part of our diverse energy generation and methane reduction strategies to deliver clean energy, while simultaneously meeting the need for affordable and reliable energy grids and gas distribution networks. However, we need to ensure that near-term economic and customer bill pressures don't preclude the full realization of that energy transition and related long-term capital investment.
其次,我們公司擁有大量投資機會,專注於脫碳和可靠性,這遠遠超出了我們的 5 年計劃,事實上,甚至可以延續到下一個十年。這些對客戶有利的計劃是我們提供清潔能源的多樣化能源生產和甲烷減排戰略的一部分,同時滿足對負擔得起且可靠的能源網和天然氣分配網絡的需求。但是,我們需要確保近期的經濟和客戶賬單壓力不會妨礙全面實現能源轉型和相關的長期資本投資。
These 2 drivers led me to initiate this review of potential value maximizing strategic actions of alternatives to our current business mix and capital allocation. And if any regulatory options, which may assist customers to manage costs and provide greater predictability to our long-term state-regulated utility value proposition.
這兩個驅動因素使我開始對我們當前業務組合和資本配置的替代方案的潛在價值最大化戰略行動進行審查。如果有任何監管選項,可以幫助客戶管理成本並為我們長期受國家監管的公用事業價值主張提供更大的可預測性。
A few guiding principles for this review. We're committed to our state-regulated utility profile with an industry-leading investment opportunity focused on decarbonization. We're committed to our current credit profile and to our dividend. And we're committed to shareholder value enhancement and to transparency. Of course, we're constantly evaluating our business mix to make sure we're maximizing shareholder value. However, as we carefully weighed our continued relative share price performance in the past several years, as well as the implications of the current macroeconomic environment, we determined that this more formal and thorough review is the right step at the right time.
本次審查的一些指導原則。我們致力於實現我們受國家監管的公用事業概況,並提供專注於脫碳的行業領先投資機會。我們致力於我們目前的信用狀況和我們的股息。我們致力於提高股東價值和提高透明度。當然,我們會不斷評估我們的業務組合,以確保我們最大化股東價值。然而,當我們仔細權衡過去幾年持續的相對股價表現以及當前宏觀經濟環境的影響時,我們認為這次更正式和徹底的審查是在正確的時間採取正確的步驟。
So let me address what I expect maybe natural questions relating to this review. One, the scope; two, timing of milestones; and three, the impact to our financial plan.
所以讓我來談談我所期望的可能與這篇評論有關的自然問題。一、範圍;二、里程碑的時間安排;三是對我們財務計劃的影響。
First, what is the scope of this review? I've tasked our team with reviewing each of our businesses to examine opportunities that would improve long-term shareholder value relative to the status quo. This includes a review of where we have capital invested in businesses which may be considered nonstrategic or which simply may be worth more to others than they are within our current regulated business profile. We'll also take a hard look at all options to help our customers manage costs and that provide greater predictability to our long-term state-regulated utility value proposition. We remain focused on the customer impact and advocate for energy policy that provides an affordable clean energy transition and long-term predictability for our state-regulated utilities.
首先,這次審查的範圍是什麼?我已責成我們的團隊審查我們的每項業務,以檢查可以提高相對於現狀的長期股東價值的機會。這包括審查我們將資本投資於哪些業務,這些業務可能被認為是非戰略性的,或者對他人而言可能比我們目前受監管的業務概況更有價值。我們還將仔細研究所有選項,以幫助我們的客戶管理成本,並為我們長期受國家監管的公用事業價值主張提供更大的可預測性。我們仍然專注於對客戶的影響,並倡導為我們的國家監管公用事業提供負擔得起的清潔能源轉型和長期可預測性的能源政策。
Next, what do we expect in terms of timing and milestones? Our team is already getting to work. We expect to share updates on our fourth quarter earnings call in early 2023 and plan to hold an Investor Day later in the year to update stakeholders more fully on our plan in the key value drivers of each of our business segments.
接下來,我們對時間和里程碑的期望是什麼?我們的團隊已經開始工作了。我們預計將在 2023 年初分享我們第四季度財報電話會議的最新消息,併計劃在今年晚些時候舉行投資者日,以更全面地向利益相關者更新我們在每個業務部門的關鍵價值驅動因素方面的計劃。
Finally, what's the impact to our financial plan and guidance? We're reaffirming our 2022 financial guidance. No changes from prior communications, other than a narrowing of our annual EPS guidance range given where we are in the calendar year. For 2023, we see paths to achieving our existing targets as we expect we could overcome the macroeconomic challenges with increased unregulated investment activities and other initiatives. However, these nonregulated earnings drivers, among other parts of our business, are subject to the review we announced this morning. So I would caution that outcomes consistent with our existing guidance are only achievable in a status quo result to our review.
最後,對我們的財務計劃和指導有何影響?我們重申我們的 2022 年財務指導。除了縮小我們在日曆年中的年度每股收益指導範圍外,與之前的溝通沒有任何變化。對於 2023 年,我們看到了實現現有目標的途徑,因為我們預計我們可以通過增加不受監管的投資活動和其他舉措來克服宏觀經濟挑戰。然而,這些不受監管的收入驅動因素,以及我們業務的其他部分,都需要接受我們今天上午宣布的審查。因此,我要提醒的是,與我們現有指導一致的結果只能在我們審查的現狀結果中實現。
While we are, therefore, not changing our guidance today, we are indicating that the results of this review may very well lead to different outcomes, qualitatively and quantitatively of our long-term earnings growth, again, other than in that status quo result to our review. What is not likely to result, however, is a change to the core earnings growth driver of this company, the continued execution of what we view as an industry-leading, highly visible, regulated decarbonization growth capital investment opportunity. And to reiterate, we are not reviewing options which would negatively affect our current dividend.
因此,雖然我們今天沒有改變我們的指導方針,但我們表明,這次審查的結果很可能會在質量和數量上對我們的長期收益增長產生不同的結果,除了現狀結果之外我們的評論。然而,不太可能導致這家公司的核心盈利增長動力發生變化,繼續執行我們認為是行業領先、高度可見、受監管的脫碳增長資本投資機會。重申一下,我們不會審查會對我們當前股息產生負面影響的選項。
A little more color on the way we think about potential outcomes of this review and to overcoming the headwinds I have noted. We, of course, expect to consider all potential levers we have, which could mitigate any impacts to our financial plan. First, we would look to O&M management, where we've created material value for our customers and shareholders, and as Jim will talk about more in a minute. So there's some potential in that area, but not likely a game changer, given what we've already been doing.
在我們思考本次審查的潛在結果和克服我所指出的不利因素的方式上,我們有了更多的色彩。當然,我們希望考慮我們擁有的所有潛在槓桿,這可以減輕對我們財務計劃的任何影響。首先,我們將關注 O&M 管理,我們為客戶和股東創造了物質價值,Jim 稍後會談到更多。因此,鑑於我們已經在做的事情,該領域有一些潛力,但不太可能改變遊戲規則。
Next, we would also continue our efforts to efficiently review capital allocation given our robust regulated growth programs, while also carefully considering the customer rate impacts of doing so. As part of this more formal review, however, we will undertake analysis to find the most efficient sources of capital to fund our most attractive utility growth programs, all while considering many factors in the best interest of our EPS growth and credit profile.
接下來,鑑於我們穩健的受監管增長計劃,我們還將繼續努力有效地審查資本配置,同時仔細考慮這樣做對客戶利率的影響。然而,作為這次更正式審查的一部分,我們將進行分析以找到最有效的資金來源,為我們最具吸引力的公用事業增長計劃提供資金,同時考慮許多符合我們每股收益增長和信用狀況最佳利益的因素。
In summary, our team has continued to deliver in the key areas of safety and reliability, our long-term scope and duration of our regulated decarbonization investment opportunity is very much intact, and we're on track to deliver against our goals for 2022. We offer an attractive state-regulated decarbonization investment profile, with operations and growth opportunities focused within premier states with constructive regulatory regimes. However, given our continued relative share price performance and the macroeconomic challenges, we think that this top-to-bottom review is the right approach at the right time to ensure we're best positioned to maximize long-term value for our shareholders.
總而言之,我們的團隊繼續在安全性和可靠性的關鍵領域提供服務,我們受監管的脫碳投資機會的長期範圍和持續時間非常完整,我們有望實現 2022 年的目標。我們提供有吸引力的受州監管的脫碳投資概況,運營和增長機會集中在具有建設性監管制度的主要州。然而,鑑於我們持續的相對股價表現和宏觀經濟挑戰,我們認為這種自上而下的審查是在正確的時間進行的正確方法,以確保我們處於最佳位置,為股東實現長期價值最大化。
Now I'll turn to other business updates. Turning to Slide 6, let me start with Dominion Energy Virginia. Last week, we announced a settlement agreement in our petition to the SEC to reconsider the performance guarantee included in its August order in conjunction with the Office of the Attorney General and other parties. The agreement provides a balanced and reasonable approach that allows the project to continue moving forward to meet the Commonwealth's public policy and economic development priorities and the needs of our customers. If approved, significant customer benefits include protection from unforeseen increases in construction costs above the project's budget and enhanced SEC review of performance in lieu of a performance guarantee. We look forward to a decision from the SEC later this year.
現在我將轉向其他業務更新。轉到幻燈片 6,讓我從 Dominion Energy Virginia 開始。上週,我們在向 SEC 提交的請願書中宣布了一項和解協議,以與司法部長辦公室和其他各方一起重新考慮其 8 月命令中包含的履約保證。該協議提供了一種平衡且合理的方法,使項目能夠繼續向前發展,以滿足英聯邦的公共政策和經濟發展優先事項以及我們客戶的需求。如果獲得批准,顯著的客戶利益包括保護建設成本超出項目預算的不可預見的增長,以及加強 SEC 對績效的審查以代替績效保證。我們期待美國證券交易委員會在今年晚些時候做出決定。
Let me now turn to execution of that project, where we have further mitigated some of the project's development risks that strengthen our confidence of remaining on time and on budget. We have continued to work closely with Bureau of Ocean Energy Management and other stakeholders to support the project's time line as we continue to expect to receive a draft environmental impact statement by the end of the year. Advanced engineering and design in preparation of immediate release of major equipment for fabrication. Advanced procurement and other preconstruction activities for the onshore scope of work. And completed independent project review and construction readiness assessment, along with a comprehensive assessment of scheduling costs.
現在讓我談談該項目的執行,我們進一步減輕了項目的一些開發風險,增強了我們按時和按預算行事的信心。我們繼續與海洋能源管理局和其他利益相關者密切合作,以支持該項目的時間表,因為我們繼續期望在今年年底之前收到一份環境影響報告草案。先進的工程和設計,以準備立即發布用於製造的主要設備。陸上工作範圍的高級採購和其他施工前活動。並完成了獨立的項目審查和建設準備評估,以及對調度成本的綜合評估。
Development of the project has continued uninterrupted to maintain the project schedule, and we expect over 90% of the project costs, excluding contingency, to be fixed by the end of the first quarter 2023 at the latest as compared to about 75% today, further derisking the project and its budget. As I have mentioned before, offshore winds, economic development and jobs benefits are transformative for Eastern Virginia and the rest of the Commonwealth, including its diverse communities.
項目的開發繼續不間斷以維持項目進度,我們預計超過 90% 的項目成本(不包括應急費用)最遲將在 2023 年第一季度末之前固定,而今天約為 75%,進一步取消項目及其預算的風險。正如我之前提到的,海上風能、經濟發展和就業福利對東弗吉尼亞州和英聯邦其他地區,包括其多元化社區來說都是變革性的。
CVOW could create over 2,000 direct and indirect jobs during construction and operations, while attracting companies to make investments in Virginia, making it a hub for offshore wind. For example, upgrades have recently commenced at the Portsmouth Marine Terminal, where we've leased 72 acres for staging and preassembly of foundations, transition pieces and wind turbines.
CVOW 可以在建設和運營期間創造 2,000 多個直接和間接工作崗位,同時吸引公司在弗吉尼亞州進行投資,使其成為海上風電的樞紐。例如,朴茨茅斯海運碼頭最近開始升級,我們在那裡租用了 72 英畝的土地,用於基礎、過渡件和風力渦輪機的分段和預組裝。
Lastly, our Jones Act Compliant Turbine Installation Vessel is currently over 60% complete. We continue to expect it to be in service ahead of the 2024 turbine installation season.
最後,我們的符合瓊斯法案的渦輪機安裝船目前已完成 60% 以上。我們繼續預計它將在 2024 年渦輪機安裝季節之前投入使用。
Turning to other notable DEV updates on Slide 9, we made our third clean energy rider submission. The filing included 10 solar energy storage projects, and represented around $1.3 billion of utility-owned and rider-eligible investment, further derisking our growth capital plan. We expect to receive an order from the SCC in the second quarter of 2023.
談到幻燈片 9 上其他值得注意的 DEV 更新,我們提交了第三次清潔能源騎手提交。該文件包括 10 個太陽能存儲項目,代表了大約 13 億美元的公用事業擁有和符合條件的投資,進一步降低了我們的增長資本計劃的風險。我們預計將在 2023 年第二季度收到 SCC 的訂單。
On data centers. As I mentioned on our second quarter earnings call, we're actively working on a variety of solutions to serve as much of the increased demand as possible, while we work to accelerate transmission solutions to ensure a safe and reliable grid. Last week, we filed for a new 500 kV transmission line with the SCC with an expected in-service date of late 2025. The submission included around $700 million of capital investment.
在數據中心。正如我在第二季度財報電話會議上提到的那樣,我們正在積極研究各種解決方案,以盡可能多地滿足不斷增長的需求,同時我們努力加快傳輸解決方案,以確保電網安全可靠。上週,我們向 SCC 申請了一條新的 500 kV 輸電線路,預計投入使用日期為 2025 年底。提交的申請包括約 7 億美元的資本投資。
Turning to other business updates on Slide 10. At Dominion Energy South Carolina, our crews worked around the clock in response to Hurricane Ian. More than 110,000 Dominion Energy customers in South Carolina lost power at the peak of the hurricane after it made landfall, with up to 85 miles per hour wind and dumped heavy rain across the low country and other parts of our service area. In fewer than 18 hours, the company had significantly reduced that number to approximately 15,000.
關於幻燈片 10 的其他業務更新。在南卡羅來納州 Dominion Energy,我們的工作人員全天候工作以應對伊恩颶風。南卡羅來納州超過 110,000 名 Dominion Energy 客戶在颶風登陸後的高峰期斷電,風速高達每小時 85 英里,大雨傾瀉到低地國家和我們服務區的其他地區。在不到 18 小時內,該公司已將這一數字大幅減少至約 15,000 人。
The efficient restoration process was possible because of year-round preparation through a proactive vegetation management program, which includes safeguarding overhead electric lines from hazardous trees and vegetation. I'm proud of the way our team members responded on behalf of our customers.
由於通過積極的植被管理計劃進行了全年準備,其中包括保護架空電線免受危險樹木和植被的影響,因此有效的恢復過程成為可能。我為我們的團隊成員代表客戶做出回應的方式感到自豪。
And on the regulatory front, last month, we filed our 2022 IRP update. Our preferred plan is indicative of the potential for accelerated decarbonization and assumes all coal-only units are retired by the end of the decade. We look forward to engaging with all stakeholders on this planning process.
在監管方面,上個月,我們提交了 2022 年 IRP 更新。我們的首選計劃表明了加速脫碳的潛力,並假設所有純煤機組在本世紀末退役。我們期待與所有利益相關者一起參與此規劃過程。
At Dominion Energy Utah, we will complete the testimony and hearings phases in our rate case in the next few weeks. We expect an order from the commission by the end of the year, and new rates to be effective in January of next year. And as it relates to our already industry-leading agricultural-based renewable natural gas platform, we're pleased to update our expanding project backlog. Of the 4 projects currently producing negative carbon renewable natural gas, 1 is in service and 3 are in the commissioning phase. We also have 11 projects in various stages of construction, and expect to start construction on 5 new projects by year-end.
在 Dominion Energy Utah,我們將在接下來的幾週內完成費率案件的證詞和聽證會階段。我們預計委員會將在年底前下訂單,新費率將於明年 1 月生效。由於它與我們已經行業領先的基於農業的可再生天然氣平台有關,我們很高興更新我們不斷擴大的項目積壓。目前生產負碳可再生天然氣的4個項目中,1個已投入使用,3個處於調試階段。我們還有11個項目處於不同的建設階段,預計到年底將有5個新項目開工。
Looking ahead, we now have visibility on $1 billion of potential growth capital investments in this area from 2023 through 2026. Obviously, we're very much on our way toward our goal of investing up to $2 billion by 2035. We see the potential for additional increases to the long-term backlog.
展望未來,我們現在可以看到從 2023 年到 2026 年該領域的 10 億美元潛在增長資本投資。顯然,我們正在朝著到 2035 年投資高達 20 億美元的目標邁進。我們看到了長期積壓的額外增加。
Before I summarize my prepared remarks and turn it over to Jim, I'd like to make a few comments about the organizational change we announced this morning. Steve Ridge, who currently leads our Western Natural Gas Distribution Operations, will be promoted to Senior Vice President and Chief Financial Officer, succeeding Jim. After nearly a decade in Energy Investment Banking, Steve, who is here in the room with us today, joined Dominion Energy and has spent the last 8 years in leadership roles in mergers and acquisitions, corporate strategy, financial management and Investor Relations.
在我總結我準備好的評論並將其交給吉姆之前,我想對我們今天早上宣布的組織變革發表一些評論。目前領導我們西部天然氣分銷業務的 Steve Ridge 將被提升為高級副總裁兼首席財務官,接替 Jim。在能源投資銀行工作近十年後,今天與我們同在會議室的史蒂夫加入了 Dominion Energy,並在過去 8 年中擔任了併購、企業戰略、財務管理和投資者關係方面的領導職務。
During much of that time, he worked closely with Jim and me, along with the rest of our senior leadership team. For the last year, he's successfully been meeting our Western Gas operations, which serve nearly 1.2 million customers. He has a wealth of experience in finance, is well known to many of our investors and is a strong, capable leader. We're very fortunate to have him in this new role.
在那段時間的大部分時間裡,他與吉姆和我以及我們高級領導團隊的其他成員密切合作。去年,他成功地與我們為近 120 萬客戶提供服務的西部天然氣業務進行了會面。他在金融領域擁有豐富的經驗,為我們的許多投資者所熟知,是一位強大、有能力的領導者。我們很幸運讓他擔任這個新角色。
Jim will be leaving the company to be Vice President and Treasurer at ExxonMobil. Jim is an exceptional leader and has been an extraordinary partner of mine. Jim played an instrumental role in our rapid transition to an asset mix largely defined by state-regulated utility operations and a capital plan aimed at decarbonization in support of public policy goals and our commitment to our customers, communities, the environment and our investors. We're very sorry to see him go, but we wish him good fortune in the next chapter of his career.
Jim 將離開公司,擔任埃克森美孚的副總裁兼財務主管。吉姆是一位傑出的領導者,也是我傑出的合作夥伴。吉姆在我們快速過渡到主要由國家監管的公用事業運營和旨在脫碳以支持公共政策目標和我們對客戶、社區、環境和投資者的承諾的資本計劃定義的資產組合中發揮了重要作用。我們很遺憾看到他離開,但我們祝愿他在職業生涯的下一章好運。
In the interim, Jim will be helping make a seamless transition, including joining us at the upcoming EEI Financial Conference. Steve will be there as well, obviously. Steve will play a critical role in advancing our strategy of delivering value to our customers and shareholders. The depth of leadership of this company is impressive. Steve is a great example of that bench strength.
在此期間,Jim 將幫助實現無縫過渡,包括加入我們即將舉行的 EEI 金融會議。顯然,史蒂夫也會在那裡。史蒂夫將在推進我們為客戶和股東創造價值的戰略中發揮關鍵作用。這家公司的領導深度令人印象深刻。史蒂夫是板凳力量的一個很好的例子。
And with that, I'll hand it over to Jim.
有了這個,我會把它交給吉姆。
James R. Chapman - Executive VP & CFO
James R. Chapman - Executive VP & CFO
Thank you, Bob. Those are very kind words, and I really appreciate it. As I mentioned in our release this morning, I'm really grateful for having had the opportunity over 9 years to work with just outstanding people here at Dominion. I'm proud of our accomplishments we made together. On behalf of this great company's customers and shareholders, more accomplishment to come, of course. And as many of our investors already know very well based on their experience with Steve over the years, I'm definitely handing the CFO reins over to an incredibly capable person. So from one great company to another great company for me, but let's move on, and I'll recap what was a great quarter for Dominion.
謝謝你,鮑勃。這些話非常客氣,我真的很感激。正如我在今天早上發布的新聞稿中提到的,我非常感謝有機會在 Dominion 與傑出的人才共事超過 9 年。我為我們共同取得的成就感到自豪。代表這家偉大公司的客戶和股東,當然還有更多的成就。我們的許多投資者根據他們多年來與史蒂夫的經驗已經非常了解,我肯定會將首席財務官的權力交給一個非常有能力的人。因此,對我來說,從一家偉大的公司到另一家偉大的公司,但讓我們繼續前進,我將回顧一下 Dominion 的偉大季度。
Our third quarter 2022 operating earnings, as shown on Slide 11, were $1.11 per share, which for this quarter represented normal weather in our utility service areas. These results were above the midpoint of our quarterly guidance range. Positive factors as compared to the third quarter last year include increased regulated investment across electric and gas utility programs, sales growth and margins. Other factors as compared to the prior year include interest expense, tax timing and share dilution.
如幻燈片 11 所示,我們 2022 年第三季度的營業收益為每股 1.11 美元,這在本季度代表了我們公用事業服務領域的正常天氣。這些結果高於我們季度指導範圍的中點。與去年第三季度相比,積極因素包括對電力和天然氣公用事業項目的監管投資增加、銷售增長和利潤率。與上一年相比,其他因素包括利息費用、納稅時間和股份稀釋。
Third quarter GAAP results of $0.91 per share reflect the noncash mark-to-market impact of economic hedging activities, unrealized changes in the value of our nuclear decommissioning trust funds and other adjustments. A summary of all adjustments between operating and reported results is included in Schedule 2 of our earnings release kit.
第三季度每股 0.91 美元的 GAAP 結果反映了經濟對沖活動的非現金按市值計價的影響、我們的核退役信託基金價值的未實現變化和其他調整。我們的收益發布工具包的附表 2 中包含了運營和報告結果之間所有調整的摘要。
Turning now to guidance on Slide 12. For the fourth quarter of 2022, we expect operating earnings to be between $0.98 and $1.13 per share. Positive factors as compared to last year are expected to be returned to normal weather, normal course regulated rider growth, sales growth, the absence of a Millstone planned outage, absence of last year's COVID-deferred O&M and tax timing. Other factors as compared to last year are expected to be interest expense and share dilution. Given where we are in the year, we're narrowing our 2022 full year guidance range to $4.03 to $4.18 per share, preserving the same midpoint as our original guidance.
現在轉向幻燈片 12 的指導。對於 2022 年第四季度,我們預計營業收益將在每股 0.98 美元至 1.13 美元之間。與去年相比,積極因素預計將恢復到正常天氣、正常路線調節的騎手增長、銷售增長、沒有 Millstone 計劃停電、沒有去年的 COVID 延期 O&M 和稅收時機。與去年相比,其他因素預計為利息費用和股份稀釋。鑑於我們今年的情況,我們將 2022 年全年指導範圍縮小至每股 4.03 美元至 4.18 美元,保持與我們最初指導相同的中點。
Turning now to Slide 13. Of course, the review that we announced this morning is still early, and all the details are still yet to come, but we've given you a sense of how we're thinking about the process. We expect to provide formal 2023 guidance on the fourth quarter call, which, like always, will include an annual guidance range to account for variations from normal weather.
現在轉到幻燈片 13。當然,我們今天早上宣布的審查還為時過早,所有細節都還沒有到來,但我們已經讓您了解我們是如何考慮這個過程的。我們預計將在第四季度電話會議上提供正式的 2023 年指導,與往常一樣,該指導將包括一個年度指導範圍,以考慮到正常天氣的變化。
However, let me share some preliminary drivers for 2023 at this point. Positive factors as compared to '22 are expected to be normal course regulated rider growth. Millstone margin and sales growth, which has been trending above our long-term target. We also have ample opportunities for unregulated investment in areas such as solar and RNG development. And a reminder that both of these areas qualify for ITC benefits under the Inflation Reduction Act. And we're also looking into additional O&M management options.
但是,讓我在這一點上分享一些 2023 年的初步驅動因素。與'22 相比,積極因素預計將是正常的賽道調節騎手增長。 Millstone 的利潤率和銷售增長,一直高於我們的長期目標。我們也有充足的機會在太陽能和 RNG 開發等領域進行不受監管的投資。並提醒您,這兩個領域都有資格根據《減少通貨膨脹法》獲得 ITC 福利。我們還在研究其他 O&M 管理選項。
Other factors as compared to '22 are expected to be a second planned outage at Millstone, higher interest expense, share dilution and pension expense. Lastly, as it relates to the impact of the Inflation Reduction Act, we're continuing to review to see how quickly we can deploy options that are available to lower cost for customers over time. And I would remind you of the very detailed remarks I shared on our second quarter earnings call. So no changes from prior communications. I'd also note that assessing the impact is a difficult process of the treasury guidance and implementation process is still a moving target. So more to come here also.
與 22 年相比,其他因素預計將是 Millstone 的第二次計劃停電、更高的利息費用、股份稀釋和養老金費用。最後,由於它與《降低通脹法案》的影響有關,我們正在繼續審查,以了解隨著時間的推移,我們能夠以多快的速度部署可用於降低客戶成本的選項。我會提醒你我在第二季度財報電話會議上分享的非常詳細的評論。因此,與之前的通信沒有任何變化。我還要指出,評估影響是財政部指導的一個艱難過程,實施過程仍然是一個移動目標。所以更多的也來這裡。
In summary, we see a path to achieving our existing guidance, but they are subject to the review. What is not likely to result, however, is a change to the core earnings growth driver of this company, the continued execution of our industry-leading, highly visible, regulated decarbonization growth capital investment program. I'll now turn to other financial highlights.
總之,我們看到了實現現有指導的途徑,但它們需要接受審查。然而,不太可能發生的是改變這家公司的核心盈利增長動力,繼續執行我們行業領先、高度可見、受監管的脫碳增長資本投資計劃。我現在將轉向其他財務亮點。
Turning to Slide 14. Let me address electric sales trends. Weather-normalized sales increased 2.6% over the 12 months through September as compared to the prior year. Components of this growth include a slight decline for residential, as you'd expect, with the continued back-to-work trend, and higher growth for the commercial segment driven by data center customers in Virginia. For 2022, we expect to remain above our long-term run rate of 1% to 1.5% per year. We've again provided demand-related earnings sensitivities for our 2 electric utilities in today's appendix materials.
轉到幻燈片 14。讓我談談電子銷售趨勢。在截至 9 月的 12 個月中,天氣標準化後的銷售額與去年同期相比增長了 2.6%。如您所料,這種增長的組成部分包括住宅的輕微下降,以及持續的複工趨勢,以及由弗吉尼亞州數據中心客戶推動的商業領域的更高增長。到 2022 年,我們預計將保持在每年 1% 至 1.5% 的長期運行率之上。我們在今天的附錄材料中再次為我們的 2 家電力公司提供了與需求相關的收益敏感性。
Turning to Slide 15, and briefly on O&M management. For perspective, we've highlighted our electric O&M management relative to peers over time. As Bob mentioned, we've created material value for our customers and shareholders in our O&M efforts, something we view as quite an accomplishment. As a reminder, our guidance assumes flat normalized O&M by driving down costs through improved processes, innovative use of technology and other best practice cost initiatives.
轉到幻燈片 15,簡要介紹運維管理。從角度來看,隨著時間的推移,我們已經強調了我們相對於同行的電氣運維管理。正如鮑勃所提到的,我們在運維工作中為客戶和股東創造了物質價值,我們認為這是一項相當大的成就。提醒一下,我們的指導假設通過改進流程、創新使用技術和其他最佳實踐成本舉措來降低成本,從而實現統一的標準化 O&M。
It's a dynamic process. We very intentionally go through each of our segments, each of our assets, each of our locations to find opportunities to lean into technology, to improve business processes and to improve in areas like smart buying across our platform. As Bob mentioned, O&M is certainly an area where there is some potential to offset headwinds, but likely not a game changer given what we've obviously been doing already.
這是一個動態的過程。我們非常有意識地檢查我們的每個細分市場、我們的每一項資產、我們的每一個地點,以尋找利用技術的機會,改進業務流程並改進我們平台上的智能購買等領域。正如鮑勃所提到的,運維肯定是一個有可能抵消逆風的領域,但考慮到我們顯然已經在做的事情,可能不會改變遊戲規則。
Turning to Slide 16, we have shown how our floating rate debt and all fixed rate debt maturities over the next 3 years compares to peers. As you can see, our repricing exposure in this time frame is very much in line with the peer average. Let me share some color on the way we think about the impact of rising rates on our business.
轉到幻燈片 16,我們展示了未來 3 年我們的浮動利率債務和所有固定利率債務到期與同行相比的情況。如您所見,我們在此時間範圍內的重新定價風險非常符合同行平均水平。讓我分享一下我們對利率上升對我們業務影響的看法。
First, we, of course, reflect market expectations, in our planning process and in guidance. We, of course, don't model just flat rates. More than 80% of our balance sheet is fixed rate and is long in duration, over 13 years in average tenure.
首先,我們當然會在規劃過程和指導中反映市場預期。當然,我們不僅僅模擬統一費率。我們超過 80% 的資產負債表是固定利率且期限較長,平均期限超過 13 年。
Next, about 50% of our interest rate exposure, the same floating rate debt and all fixed rate debt maturities over the next 3 years is at our regulated utilities, where it is a cost of service. As a reminder, about 35% of our existing rate base and over 75% of our growth capital is rider eligible, which allows for timely annual true-ups.
接下來,我們約 50% 的利率風險敞口、相同的浮動利率債務和未來 3 年到期的所有固定利率債務都在我們受監管的公用事業公司,這是服務成本。提醒一下,我們現有的費率基數中約有 35% 和超過 75% 的增長資本符合附加條件,這允許及時進行年度調整。
Looking ahead to future issuances of long-term debt, we manage that interest rate exposure through a variety of hedging and treasury activities, including through what is nearly $9 billion notional of interest rate hedges, which will help us keep future costs low at our parent company and at our regulated utilities. So what does that mean? That portfolio allows us to lock-in treasury rates for issuances between now and 2026 at rates almost as low as 1%.
展望未來長期債務的發行,我們通過各種對沖和資金活動來管理利率風險,包括通過近 90 億美元的名義利率對沖,這將幫助我們保持母公司的未來成本低公司和我們受監管的公用事業公司。那是什麼意思?該投資組合使我們能夠將從現在到 2026 年之間發行的國債利率鎖定在幾乎低至 1% 的水平。
Lastly, a reminder that economic growth and inflation and higher interest rates are all part of the mix when it comes to determining authorized ROEs across our utility businesses and our periodic rate proceedings.
最後,提醒一下,在確定我們的公用事業業務和定期利率程序的授權 ROE 時,經濟增長和通貨膨脹以及更高的利率都是混合的一部分。
So in summary, the current rate environment is dynamic, and we're monitoring it closely. At present, however, we're not seeing an earnings hurt from significantly higher interest rates so far this year as higher rates thus far have generally been offset by the factors I just described. We will certainly provide an update on rates, interest expense, hedging strategies and other mitigants as we provide an update on our business review and guidance on our fourth quarter call early next year.
總而言之,當前的匯率環境是動態的,我們正在密切關注它。然而,目前,我們沒有看到今年到目前為止利率顯著提高對收益的影響,因為迄今為止的較高利率通常被我剛才描述的因素所抵消。我們肯定會提供有關利率、利息費用、對沖策略和其他緩解措施的最新信息,因為我們會在明年初的第四季度電話會議上提供我們的業務審查和指導的最新信息。
Turning to Slide 17. Let me address customer bill. Based on data from the U.S. Census Bureau, the share of our customers' wallet attributable to our utilities customer bill has declined over the years, a testament to our continued focus on delivering affordable energy to our customers despite an overall increase in household income during that time. I'd also note that our improvement in affordability has been tracking far better than national utility averages. Also as regards to the starting point for relative rates, we are proud to have rates today that remain well below the national and various regional averages.
轉到幻燈片 17。讓我解決客戶賬單問題。根據美國人口普查局的數據,多年來,我們的公用事業客戶賬單佔客戶錢包的份額一直在下降,這證明了我們繼續專注於為客戶提供負擔得起的能源,儘管在此期間家庭收入整體增加時間。我還注意到,我們在可負擔性方面的改善一直比全國公用事業平均水平要好得多。同樣關於相對費率的起點,我們很自豪今天的費率仍遠低於全國和各個地區的平均水平。
Now on Slide 18, fuel costs. As Bob mentioned, we are proactively working with regulators to help our customers manage costs. Of course, we've been very -- we have very clear pass-through mechanisms for fuel costs across all of our utilities, but let me share some color on where we stand right now.
現在在幻燈片 18 上,燃料成本。正如 Bob 所說,我們正在積極與監管機構合作,幫助我們的客戶管理成本。當然,我們一直非常 - 我們對所有公用事業的燃料成本都有非常明確的傳遞機制,但讓我分享一下我們現在所處的位置。
At our 2 electric utilities, we use a diverse portfolio to generate electricity. That includes many different sources of fuel and also our small but growing renewable fleet that, of course, does not incur fuel costs for our customers. Nuclear power currently represents about 40% of our generation portfolio. And as we grow our renewable fleet and add it to our nuclear fleet, our customers will benefit from carbon-free power at predictable and stable rates that are not exposed to fossil fuel markets and volatility.
在我們的 2 家電力公司,我們使用多樣化的產品組合來發電。這包括許多不同的燃料來源,以及我們規模雖小但不斷增長的可再生能源車隊,當然,這不會為我們的客戶帶來燃料成本。核電目前約占我們發電組合的 40%。隨著我們發展可再生能源船隊並將其添加到我們的核電船隊中,我們的客戶將以可預測和穩定的速度受益於無碳電力,不受化石燃料市場和波動的影響。
We also have long-standing risk mitigation strategies, including hedging and natural gas storage, with most fuel prices trued up to customer bills on a delayed basis, a structure which helps to smooth out the bill impact of commodity swings. In Virginia, we voluntarily agreed to spread the recovery of the under-recovered fuel balance over a 3-year period to reduce the effect on customer bills. In South Carolina, we filed a mid-period fuel adjustment rather than our typical annual cadence to avoid a single significant customer bill increase in the future.
我們還制定了長期的風險緩解策略,包括對沖和天然氣儲存,大多數燃料價格都會延遲與客戶賬單相符,這種結構有助於消除商品波動對賬單的影響。在弗吉尼亞州,我們自願同意將回收不足的燃料餘額的回收分攤到 3 年期間,以減少對客戶賬單的影響。在南卡羅來納州,我們提交了中期燃料調整,而不是我們典型的年度節奏,以避免未來單個客戶賬單顯著增加。
If approved and submitted, our typical residential customer bill would increase by approximately 14%, and customers would see the increase in bills beginning in January of 2023.
如果獲得批准並提交,我們的典型住宅客戶賬單將增加約 14%,從 2023 年 1 月開始,客戶將看到賬單的增加。
In our gas distribution service areas, we utilized storage capacity to offset peak day requirements and proactive gas supply hedging and contract strategies to help customers manage costs. In Ohio, where the majority of the gas is supplied through the third parties, access to storage and lower cost gas, plus fixed rate customer contracts, all help mitigate gas price exposure. In our Western states, our unique cost of service gas production also helps customers avoid price spikes.
在我們的天然氣配送服務領域,我們利用存儲容量來抵消高峰日需求和積極的天然氣供應對沖和合同策略,以幫助客戶管理成本。在俄亥俄州,大部分天然氣是通過第三方供應的,獲得儲存和低成本天然氣,加上固定費率的客戶合同,都有助於減輕天然氣價格風險。在我們的西部各州,我們獨特的天然氣生產服務成本還可以幫助客戶避免價格飆升。
In aggregate, as of September 30, we have an under-collected balance of approximately $2 billion in fuel costs. We are working proactively with regulators to address these costs, and we'll continue to use these and other mitigation measures to keep any increase to customer bills as muted as possible.
總的來說,截至 9 月 30 日,我們的燃料成本欠收餘額約為 20 億美元。我們正在與監管機構積極合作以解決這些成本問題,我們將繼續使用這些和其他緩解措施,盡可能減少客戶賬單的增加。
Okay. Turning to 19, and briefly on credit. We have positioned Dominion Energy as an increasingly pure-play, state-regulated utility, with the differentiated clean energy transition profile. Our efforts to improve our credit profile in recent years have significantly improved our financial and business risk profiles. This continued shift towards a regulated utility profile has resulted historically in the reduction of our credit metric downgrade and upgrade threshold.
好的。轉向 19 歲,並簡要介紹了信用。我們將 Dominion Energy 定位為越來越純粹的、受國家監管的公用事業公司,具有差異化的清潔能源轉型概況。近年來,我們改善信用狀況的努力顯著改善了我們的財務和業務風險狀況。從歷史上看,這種向受監管的公用事業概況的持續轉變導致我們的信用指標降級和升級門檻降低。
We've shown here how our credit metric upgrade and downgrade threshold at Moody's compares to our large-cap integrated peers. Of course, company-specific circumstances dictate threshold differences. Generally, those with lower downgrade thresholds have limited nonutility holdings, scale and diversity and are operating in attractive states with constructive regulatory relationships. We believe the agencies will continue to consider the intentional derisking of our business profile as they assess our credit going forward. Looking ahead, we expect our credit guidance will be unchanged. We target high BBB range at our parent and single A range at our OpCos.
我們在這裡展示了我們在穆迪的信用指標升級和降級門檻與我們的大盤綜合同行相比如何。當然,公司的具體情況決定了門檻差異。一般來說,降級門檻較低的非公用事業持有量、規模和多樣性有限,並且在具有建設性監管關係的有吸引力的州運營。我們相信,這些機構在評估我們未來的信用時,將繼續考慮有意降低我們業務的風險。展望未來,我們預計我們的信用指引將保持不變。我們針對母公司的高 BBB 範圍和 OpCos 的單一 A 範圍。
With that, let me summarize our remarks on Slide 20. Safety remains our top priority and is our first core value. We delivered quarterly results that were above the midpoint of our guidance range. We narrowed the range of our 2022 earnings guidance and are on track to meet that guidance. We continue to aggressively execute on our decarbonization and investment programs to meet our customers' needs, while creating jobs and spurring new business growth. We filed a settlement agreement that provides a balanced and reasonable approach that allows our offshore wind project to continue moving forward on schedule and on budget. And we are pursuing a top-to-bottom business review, with the goal of ensuring that Dominion Energy is best positioned to create significant long-term value for our shareholders.
有了這個,讓我總結一下我們對幻燈片 20 的評論。安全仍然是我們的首要任務,也是我們的第一核心價值。我們的季度業績高於我們指導範圍的中點。我們縮小了 2022 年收益指引的範圍,並有望實現該指引。我們繼續積極執行我們的脫碳和投資計劃,以滿足客戶的需求,同時創造就業機會並刺激新的業務增長。我們提交了一份和解協議,該協議提供了一種平衡且合理的方法,使我們的海上風電項目能夠繼續按計劃和預算推進。我們正在進行自上而下的業務審查,以確保 Dominion Energy 處於最佳位置,為我們的股東創造重大的長期價值。
Lastly, Bob, Diane, Steve, David and I, we all look forward to seeing many of you in person at the EEI Financial Conference in about 10 days. And with that, we're ready to take questions.
最後,Bob、Diane、Steve、David 和我,我們都期待在大約 10 天后的 EEI 金融會議上與你們中的許多人見面。有了這個,我們準備好回答問題了。
Operator
Operator
(Operator Instructions). And our first question comes from Shar Pourreza from Guggenheim Partners.
(操作員說明)。我們的第一個問題來自 Guggenheim Partners 的 Shar Pourreza。
Shahriar Pourreza - MD and Head of North American Power
Shahriar Pourreza - MD and Head of North American Power
First, congrats, obviously, to Jim and Steven. I guess, this means Mr. Ridge's park city skiing days are over with, but congrats to both you guys.
首先,恭喜吉姆和史蒂文。我想,這意味著 Ridge 先生在公園城市滑雪的日子已經結束,但恭喜你們。
Bob, if you can maybe elaborate a little bit on your prepared remarks as you're looking at sort of a range of scenarios. I think many would assume you start with looking at a monetization of the contracted assets. But in our view, they're really not why you're trading at a discount or why the stocks underperformed, some would argue the performance maybe driven by local politics. I guess, could we see more drastic actions like divestitures where you would only focus on Virginia or even a sale of the company to really maximize shareholder value? I guess, what is this going to look like in the end? And it seems like an update in February is a very tight time frame. So I guess, are you really progressed in this process?
Bob,如果您可以在查看一系列場景時詳細說明您準備好的評論。我想很多人會假設你從查看合同資產的貨幣化開始。但在我們看來,它們真的不是你以折扣價交易或股票表現不佳的原因,有些人會認為表現可能是由當地政治驅動的。我想,我們是否會看到更激烈的行動,比如資產剝離,你只關注弗吉尼亞,甚至出售公司以真正最大化股東價值?我想,這最終會是什麼樣子? 2 月份的更新似乎是一個非常緊迫的時間框架。所以我想,你在這個過程中真的進步了嗎?
Robert M. Blue - President, CEO & Chairman of the Board
Robert M. Blue - President, CEO & Chairman of the Board
Let me take the last part of that first. This is not about corporate M&A, if that's what you're asking about. This is about a business review, a top-to-bottom business review as we made clear in our prepared remarks, looking at strategies that maximize value, business mix, capital allocation, all those kinds of things. And we're going to make decisions as we would any strategic decision we make with respect to the company and what's in the best interest of our shareholders, of our employees and of our customers.
讓我先講最後一部分。這不是關於企業併購,如果這就是你要問的。這是關於業務審查,是自上而下的業務審查,正如我們在準備好的評論中明確指出的那樣,著眼於最大化價值的策略、業務組合、資本分配等等。我們將做出決策,就像我們就公司做出的任何戰略決策一樣,以及什麼最符合我們的股東、員工和客戶的最大利益。
Fundamentally, we took a look at how we're doing, how our share price is doing. And the market is telling us that we're not performing the way investors expect. And so we think it merits a complete review from top to bottom. We're early in the process. And we're going to, obviously, in addition to shareholder value and our share price performance, be thinking about the macroeconomic environment we're in and making sure that we can deliver on our growth program to the level that we expect.
從根本上說,我們看看我們的表現如何,我們的股價表現如何。市場告訴我們,我們的表現並沒有達到投資者的預期。因此,我們認為它值得從上到下進行全面審查。我們處於早期階段。顯然,除了股東價值和我們的股價表現之外,我們還將考慮我們所處的宏觀經濟環境,並確保我們能夠將我們的增長計劃交付到我們預期的水平。
So we laid out in the opening remarks, and I'll just reiterate, as we're guided by our commitment to our state-regulated utility profile, to our credit profile and our current dividend and to transparency in ensuring shareholder value. So as we thought about it, we could keep on the same course. As we said, we have a path to 2023. Some would suggest that doing the same thing over and over and expecting a different result doesn't make a lot of sense, or we could have just announced something. But we thought it made a lot more sense to announce that we're doing this review, get some shareholder input and figure out what's right for our shareholders, our employees and our customers going forward in the long run.
因此,我們在開場白中闡述了這一點,我將重申,因為我們以對國家監管的公用事業概況、信用狀況和當前股息以及確保股東價值的透明度的承諾為指導。因此,正如我們所想的那樣,我們可以繼續走同樣的路線。正如我們所說,我們有一條通往 2023 年的道路。有些人會建議,一遍又一遍地做同樣的事情並期待不同的結果沒有多大意義,或者我們本可以宣布一些事情。但我們認為,宣布我們正在進行這項審查、徵求股東意見並找出對我們的股東、員工和客戶的長期發展而言正確的做法更有意義。
Shahriar Pourreza - MD and Head of North American Power
Shahriar Pourreza - MD and Head of North American Power
Got it. And then just lastly, Bob, just on the 6.5% growth rate you have out there. Obviously, you're implying on Slide 13 in your prepared remarks that you could change the target pending the review. Obviously, the share price reaction this morning is implying a cut in the growth rate. But could a scenario actually be accretive or even supportive of the target you have out there, especially if we assume the trend with privates and financial players, paying relatively healthy multiples for assets with proceeds you can redeploy organically at onetime rate base. I mean, does the deal need to be dilutive to growth? Are you concerned about the numbers?
知道了。最後,鮑勃,就你所擁有的 6.5% 的增長率而言。顯然,您在準備好的評論中暗示幻燈片 13,您可以在審查之前更改目標。顯然,今天上午的股價反應意味著增長率下降。但是,一個場景是否真的會增加甚至支持你的目標,特別是如果我們假設私人和金融參與者的趨勢,為資產支付相對健康的倍數,你可以在一次性利率基礎上有機地重新部署。我的意思是,這筆交易是否需要稀釋增長?你在乎數字嗎?
Robert M. Blue - President, CEO & Chairman of the Board
Robert M. Blue - President, CEO & Chairman of the Board
Yes. We're obviously closer to the beginning of this process than the end. So we're going to have to work our way through and see what the ultimate outcome is before I can comment on that, Shar. And I understand your interest in getting more clarity in that today. But until we've done the process, that question is impossible for us to answer. Again, I would go back to the fact that we're very focused on earnings quality and earnings predictability. That's what our shareholders are telling us they want. That's what we're going to focus on as we're going through this review.
是的。我們顯然更接近這個過程的開始而不是結束。因此,在我對此發表評論之前,我們將不得不繼續努力,看看最終結果是什麼,Shar。我理解你有興趣在今天更清楚地了解這一點。但在我們完成這個過程之前,我們不可能回答這個問題。再次,我要回到我們非常關注收益質量和收益可預測性的事實。這就是我們的股東告訴我們他們想要的。這就是我們在進行本次審查時將重點關注的內容。
Operator
Operator
And our next question comes from Ross Fowler from UBS.
我們的下一個問題來自瑞銀的羅斯福勒。
Ross A. Fowler - Executive Director & Equity Research Analyst of Utilities
Ross A. Fowler - Executive Director & Equity Research Analyst of Utilities
Maybe shifting gear to offshore wind. I'm sure there's going to be a lot of other questions on the strategic review. But just touching on offshore wind for a minute. As we look at Slide 6 and then sort of Slide 8 in the deck, I think getting the settlement done, obviously, it still needs to be approved. It sort of shifts, investors' thoughts of risk from sort of that performance guarantee around capacity factor and now there's a shift to cost. So maybe you can frame the risk to cost from here given the cost sharing arrangement?
也許將齒輪轉向海上風電。我確信在戰略審查中還會有很多其他問題。但只是接觸海上風電一分鐘。當我們查看幻燈片 6 和幻燈片中的幻燈片 8 時,我認為完成結算,顯然,它仍然需要獲得批准。它有點轉變,投資者對風險的想法從圍繞容量因素的那種性能保證開始,現在轉向成本。那麼,考慮到成本分攤安排,也許您可以從這裡確定成本風險?
And then the second sort of part of the question is you say 75% fixed as of today and then working to that 90% in the first quarter next year. Can you kind of just give us some framework, what has fixed actually imply or mean? Is that locked and settled? Can that move at all? What we have there ex the contingency?
然後問題的第二部分是你說截至今天已固定 75%,然後在明年第一季度達到 90%。你能不能給我們一些框架,固定的實際上意味著什麼?那是鎖定並解決了嗎?這能動嗎?我們有什麼應急措施?
Robert M. Blue - President, CEO & Chairman of the Board
Robert M. Blue - President, CEO & Chairman of the Board
Yes. Let me start with the first part of your question. And as we said on the last call, the performance guarantee put a level of risk that our investors we knew would not find satisfactory, didn't make any sense. We've been focused on the cost of constructing this project from the very moment we conceived it. That's what we do. We built Cove Point on time and on budget, and we absolutely expect we're going to build this project on time and on budget the same way. And we're very advanced in the development here. And as you noted, and as we said in our opening remarks, 75% of costs fixed, expecting 90% by early in 2023.
是的。讓我從你問題的第一部分開始。正如我們在上次電話會議上所說,業績保證帶來了一定程度的風險,我們知道我們的投資者不會滿意,沒有任何意義。從我們構思這個項目的那一刻起,我們就一直關注建設這個項目的成本。這就是我們所做的。我們按時按預算建造了 Cove Point,我們絕對希望我們能以同樣的方式按時按預算建造這個項目。我們在這裡的發展非常先進。正如你所指出的,正如我們在開場白中所說,75% 的成本是固定的,預計到 2023 年初將達到 90%。
So we're very much on target. We're very comfortable with the estimates. The amount of contingency has actually increased since the time we filed, which gives us even more confidence. As we said in our opening remarks, we're working very well with the regulators, working our way through the environmental permitting process. So project is very much on track. We have a high degree of confidence in our ability to build it on time and on budget. And I'm going to ask Diane to walk through a little bit more detail on that.
所以我們非常有目標。我們對這些估計感到非常滿意。自我們提交申請以來,意外事件的數量實際上有所增加,這讓我們更有信心。正如我們在開場白中所說,我們與監管機構合作得很好,正在通過環境許可程序。所以項目非常順利。我們對按時按預算建造它的能力充滿信心。我要請黛安詳細介紹一下。
Diane G. Leopold - Executive VP & COO
Diane G. Leopold - Executive VP & COO
Okay. So let me just give a little bit more color to the different aspects of the project. Kind of as you walk through, the first thing would be permitting. And as Bob just said, we're working through the process of the draft environmental impact statement. It is on time to come out by the end of this year. And we're working closely with the regulators with DOM and with NOA in addressing issues as they come up to minimize any risk of schedule issues.
好的。所以讓我給項目的不同方面多一點色彩。當你走過時,第一件事就是允許。正如鮑勃剛才所說,我們正在製定環境影響聲明草案的過程。到今年年底就準時上映了。我們正在與 DOM 和 NOA 的監管機構密切合作,以解決出現的問題,以最大限度地減少任何進度問題的風險。
And then I'd want to remind you, we really focused on derisking the schedule from the start by having 2 piling seasons, 2 construction seasons to put those monopiles down. So we don't even install the turbines until the second season. So that allows for derisking in the construction, and we look at that as we move forward with the project.
然後我想提醒你,我們真的專注於從一開始就通過設置 2 個打樁季節、2 個施工季節來降低這些單樁,從而降低時間表的風險。所以我們直到第二季才安裝渦輪機。因此,這允許在建設中降低風險,我們在推進項目時會考慮這一點。
The next are our vendors and our suppliers, and we picked the worldwide experts in the offshore wind industry to ensure that we weren't adding any risk in our contracting. And of course, they were fixed price contracts. And as we move through, the pieces that were variable in the offshore were commodities and fuel, and that's where you see 75% fixed as of now.
接下來是我們的供應商和我們的供應商,我們挑選了海上風電行業的全球專家,以確保我們不會在合同中增加任何風險。當然,它們是固定價格合同。當我們繼續前進時,海上變化的部分是商品和燃料,這就是你現在看到的 75% 固定的地方。
So as we're looking to continue to move towards fabrication, we have all the manufacturing slots nailed down, much of the steel plate has been ordered and deliveries have actually already started. In fact, fabrications for our offshore substations and our cables have already begun. So that's as you're seeing the 75% move to the 90%, that's what's going on. The mills are operational. Our vendors are not concerned with them shutting down due to fuel issues in Europe, anything like that. And as Bob said, as we've looked at the entire projects throughout this time, we've been able to preserve and even add to our contingency. So we're feeling very good about where we are.
因此,由於我們希望繼續朝著製造方向發展,我們已經確定了所有製造槽,大部分鋼板已經訂購,實際上已經開始交付。事實上,我們的海上變電站和電纜的製造已經開始。所以當你看到 75% 向 90% 移動時,這就是正在發生的事情。工廠正在運營。我們的供應商並不擔心他們會因為歐洲的燃料問題而關閉,諸如此類。正如鮑勃所說,當我們在這段時間內查看整個項目時,我們已經能夠保留甚至增加我們的應急措施。因此,我們對自己所處的位置感覺非常好。
On the -- so I think I've really answered that additional question of ramping from 75% to 90%. It's really as we're getting those deliveries and locking in the remaining part of the metals and the fuel. And the final piece of moving from that 75% to 90% is on the onshore side, on that onshore transmission and locking in those contracts.
關於——所以我認為我已經真正回答了從 75% 增加到 90% 的附加問題。這真的是因為我們正在接受這些交付並鎖定金屬和燃料的剩餘部分。從 75% 到 90% 的最後一步是在陸上,在陸上傳輸並鎖定這些合同。
Ross A. Fowler - Executive Director & Equity Research Analyst of Utilities
Ross A. Fowler - Executive Director & Equity Research Analyst of Utilities
And then, Bob, maybe one for you on the strategic review, just following up to Shar's question on the growth rate. I'm trying to just sort of understand what you're trying to communicate there with a little more clarity. 6.5% was where you were, what you're saying for '23, right, in the long-term growth rate. And you see a path to that today absent the strategic review. And I don't want to put words in your mouth here, but I think what I heard you say was the results of the strategic review could lead to different outcomes in 2023. And then you have to think about what the long-term growth will look like after that. But your rate base growth at the regulated utilities is about 9%, which is higher than 6.5%, and so if that's your focus, I think that's a good thing. And I don't think you're saying here today that you're going to do things in the strategic review that are dilutive to value.
然後,Bob,也許是一個關於戰略審查的問題,只是跟進 Shar 關於增長率的問題。我只是想更清楚地理解你想在那裡交流的內容。 6.5% 是你所在的位置,你所說的 23 年,對,長期增長率。在沒有戰略審查的情況下,你會看到今天的路徑。而且我不想在這裡把話放在你的嘴裡,但我認為我聽到你說的是戰略審查的結果可能會導致 2023 年的不同結果。然後你必須考慮長期增長是什麼之後會看起來像。但是你在受監管的公用事業公司的費率基數增長約為 9%,高於 6.5%,所以如果這是你的重點,我認為這是一件好事。而且我不認為你今天在這裡說你將在戰略審查中做稀釋價值的事情。
Robert M. Blue - President, CEO & Chairman of the Board
Robert M. Blue - President, CEO & Chairman of the Board
Yes. I think what we're saying -- again, I know you're looking for certainty here, but it's early days and we're just getting started. So what we are focused on, you've correctly identified is regulated high-quality earnings, predictable earnings going forward. How the numbers all settle out at the end of it, we'll report when that time comes. So that's why we're saying today, we have a path and a status quo scenario, but the outcome of the review could lead to different growth qualitatively and quantitatively.
是的。我想我們在說什麼——再說一次,我知道你在這裡尋找確定性,但現在還為時過早,我們才剛剛開始。因此,我們關注的是,您正確地確定了受監管的高質量收益,以及未來可預測的收益。數字如何在它結束時全部解決,我們將在那個時候報告。所以這就是我們今天說的原因,我們有一條道路和一個現狀情景,但審查的結果可能會導致質量和數量上的不同增長。
Operator
Operator
And our next question comes from Steve Fleishman from Wolfe Research.
我們的下一個問題來自 Wolfe Research 的 Steve Fleishman。
Steven Isaac Fleishman - MD & Senior Analyst
Steven Isaac Fleishman - MD & Senior Analyst
So just first on the kind of status quo scenario. I think for '23, you mentioned that you could do it, but you would need to do more unregulated investment. Could you just comment a little more on what you mean by that?
因此,首先談談現狀情景。我認為對於 '23,你提到你可以做到,但你需要做更多不受監管的投資。你能多評論一下你的意思嗎?
Robert M. Blue - President, CEO & Chairman of the Board
Robert M. Blue - President, CEO & Chairman of the Board
Yes. Let me get Jim to walk through the pieces and parts on that.
是的。讓我讓吉姆介紹一下這方面的細節。
James R. Chapman - Executive VP & CFO
James R. Chapman - Executive VP & CFO
Yes, Steve, let me go through it a little bit higher level than your specific question, but I'll address that, too. So what's going on with our guidance? So for 2022 -- I know it's not your question, but for '22, we affirmed, we narrowed, we're on track, EPS and credit for '22.
是的,史蒂夫,讓我比你的具體問題更深入一點,但我也會解決這個問題。那麼我們的指導是怎麼回事?所以對於 2022 年——我知道這不是你的問題,但對於 22 年,我們確認,我們縮小了範圍,我們走上了正軌,每股收益和 22 年的信用。
For 2023, we never give forward year specific guidance on our third quarter call, and we're not doing it this time either. I'll come back and talk about that in some more detail though to give some color.
對於 2023 年,我們從未在第三季度電話會議上給出具體的年度指導,這次我們也沒有這樣做。我會回來更詳細地討論這個問題,但要給出一些顏色。
And then for our long-term growth rate, we haven't changed it. We haven't withdrawn it. But as you noted, we also haven't explicitly reaffirmed it given the review. But we see these paths as we show on Slide 13, path to achieving our long-term guidance and tools we have to overcome some of the macroeconomic headwinds that Bob mentioned, with increased investment on the unregulated side and other initiatives. But some of those tools and businesses are the same ones that are subject to this review. Of course, everything is subject to review.
然後對於我們的長期增長率,我們沒有改變它。我們沒有撤回它。但正如您所指出的,鑑於審查,我們也沒有明確重申它。但我們在幻燈片 13 中看到了這些路徑,實現我們的長期指導和工具的路徑,我們必須克服鮑勃提到的一些宏觀經濟逆風,增加對不受監管方面的投資和其他舉措。但其中一些工具和業務與本次審查相同。當然,一切都需要審查。
So Bob, as he mentioned in his prepared remarks, cautioned that long-term outcomes consistent with our existing guidance are really achievable in the status quo result to the review. So anyway, long story short, that's the color on the '22, '23 and long term. But on the Slide 13, we give drivers for 2023 targets. So let me walk through and provide some detail on each line item that's in our path to make our 6.5% into 2023. So $4.10 for '22, that's the midpoint of our guidance that we just narrowed and 6.5% of the simple math is, of course, implies and our consensus, analyst consensus is $4.37. So $4.10 to $4.37. And of course, there are some helps and some hurts to bridge that.
所以鮑勃,正如他在準備好的評論中提到的,警告說,與我們現有指導一致的長期結果在審查的現狀結果中確實可以實現。所以無論如何,長話短說,這就是 '22、'23 和長期的顏色。但在幻燈片 13 中,我們提供了 2023 年目標的驅動因素。因此,讓我逐步介紹並提供一些詳細信息,詳細介紹我們在 2023 年實現 6.5% 的目標。所以 22 年 4.10 美元,這是我們剛剛縮小的指導的中點,簡單數學的 6.5% 是,當然,暗示和我們的共識,分析師的共識是 4.37 美元。所以 4.10 美元到 4.37 美元。當然,有一些幫助和一些傷害可以彌合這一點。
So let's go through those as listed on that slide. Sales growth. Sales growth we talked about on the electric side is clipping along at a healthy rate, 1% to 1.5%, slightly higher on the data center side. But that financial impact, together with the impact of margin, is probably flat. And we've given some additional detail on margin dynamics, including Virginia, on Slide 31. We're happy to follow up after the call and walk through all that. The combination of those 2 things, flat.
因此,讓我們瀏覽一下該幻燈片上列出的內容。銷售增長。我們談到的電力方面的銷售增長正在以健康的速度增長,從 1% 到 1.5%,在數據中心方面略高。但這種財務影響以及利潤率的影響可能是持平的。我們在幻燈片 31 上提供了一些關於保證金動態的額外細節,包括弗吉尼亞州。我們很高興在電話會議後跟進並完成所有這些。這兩件事的結合,平坦。
Regulated investment, which we've talked about is the long-term earnings growth driver for this company, call it, $0.27 year-over-year. Rough number, $6 billion of growth CapEx, 50% equity ratio, 10% ROE across all our businesses. Millstone margins, $0.08 year-on-year, help. And here, too, we provided additional disclosure on Page 32 of our hedging position for Millstone for the next several years, $0.08.
我們已經談到的受監管投資是這家公司的長期盈利增長動力,稱之為同比 0.27 美元。粗略的數字,60 億美元的增長資本支出,50% 的股權比率,我們所有業務的 10% ROE。 Millstone 的利潤率為 0.08 美元,同比有所幫助。在這裡,我們也在第 32 頁提供了關於未來幾年 Millstone 對沖頭寸的額外披露,即 0.08 美元。
ITC, an increase in ITC, we have opportunities to complete projects and increase our ITC contribution in 2023. That could be in solar, as we've been doing in mid-teens for years now, or it could be an RNG ITC recognition. So $0.05 to $0.11 as a placeholder.
ITC,ITC 的增加,我們有機會在 2023 年完成項目並增加我們的 ITC 貢獻。這可能是在太陽能領域,就像我們多年來一直在做的那樣,也可能是 RNG ITC 的認可。所以 0.05 到 0.11 美元作為佔位符。
And for RNG, that would assume sort of $200 million to $400 million of projects reaching COD in 2023.
對於 RNG,這將假設 2023 年達到 COD 的項目達到 2 億到 4 億美元。
Then other, the last help I mention, other. $0.17 to $0.20, a lot of things in there. It includes O&M initiatives. It includes regulatory outcomes, including in Utah. Some help on the Wexpro side, RNG non-IT contribution and other. But in that bucket, $0.17 to $0.20, 1/4 of that impact is just the regulatory outcome in Utah.
然後其他,我提到的最後一個幫助,其他。 0.17 到 0.20 美元,裡面有很多東西。它包括運維計劃。它包括監管結果,包括在猶他州。 Wexpro 方面的一些幫助,RNG 非 IT 貢獻等。但在那個桶裡,0.17 美元到 0.20 美元,1/4 的影響只是猶他州的監管結果。
And then some hurts that we have been mentioned, the double outage at Millstone every 3 years, like clockwork, $0.06. Interest expense, let's just take numbers from the outside looking in. We have a lot of tools at our disposal for hedging and more dynamic management of this. But if you just say, okay, almost 20% of your debt balance is variable. Let's just say, rates year-on-year are up 2 to 3 percentage points, that would be $0.13 to $0.19 of hurt, and then share dilution modest $0.03.
然後是我們已經提到的一些傷害,Millstone 每 3 年兩次停電,就像發條一樣,0.06 美元。利息費用,讓我們只從外部獲取數字。我們有很多工具可以用來對沖和對此進行更動態的管理。但如果你只是說,好吧,你的債務餘額中幾乎有 20% 是可變的。我們只是說,利率同比上升 2 到 3 個百分點,這將是 0.13 美元到 0.19 美元的損失,然後股票稀釋適度為 0.03 美元。
Finally, pension we talked about. For most of this year, I've been saying it's too early to talk about pension. Only 1 date matters in pension world for us, 12/31. But as we sit here in November, it's coming closer, so we can kind of put it in a box, and there's a headwind. Our assets are down like everybody, our discount rate is up 2.5% or so like everybody. The headwind from that is modest. We're putting it in the high single-digit pennies range, so $0.06 to $0.09.
最後,我們談到了養老金。在今年的大部分時間裡,我一直在說現在談論養老金還為時過早。 12/31 對我們來說,養老金世界中只有 1 個日期很重要。但是當我們在 11 月坐在這裡時,它越來越近了,所以我們可以把它放在一個盒子裡,但有一個逆風。我們的資產像所有人一樣下跌,我們的貼現率像所有人一樣上漲了 2.5% 左右。不利的一面是溫和的。我們把它放在高個位數的便士範圍內,所以 0.06 美元到 0.09 美元。
So those are views on one path we have to continue along the 6.5% growth rate through '23 and formal guidance along with updates on the status of our review will come on the fourth quarter call.
因此,這些是關於我們必須在 23 年之前繼續保持 6.5% 增長率的一條道路的觀點,正式指導以及我們審查狀態的更新將在第四季度電話會議上發布。
Steven Isaac Fleishman - MD & Senior Analyst
Steven Isaac Fleishman - MD & Senior Analyst
Okay. Sorry, I have one other question. I didn't expect such a long answer, but that was a...
好的。抱歉,我還有一個問題。沒想到這麼長的回答,居然……
James R. Chapman - Executive VP & CFO
James R. Chapman - Executive VP & CFO
My last chance to talk to you for a while.
我最後一次和你談談的機會。
Steven Isaac Fleishman - MD & Senior Analyst
Steven Isaac Fleishman - MD & Senior Analyst
Yes. So just, I guess, this is a bit of an unorthodox way of going about something like this and -- but just to try to put some perspective on how you're looking at things in this review. What do you, Bob, and the Board think the reasons are the stock is underperforming? Do you think it's due to the small amount of remaining nonutility businesses? Or is it really, is it Virginia and the kind of unique structure there, some of the noise you had? Is it the offshore wind? Like what do you -- it's kind of hard to have a perspective on this review if we don't know what you think the reasons are.
是的。所以,我想,這是一種非正統的方式來處理這樣的事情 - 但只是試圖對你在這篇評論中看待事物的方式提出一些看法。你、鮑勃和董事會認為股票表現不佳的原因是什麼?您認為這是由於剩餘的非公用事業業務數量很少嗎?還是真的,是弗吉尼亞和那裡的那種獨特的結構,你有一些噪音嗎?是海上風嗎?就像你一樣——如果我們不知道你認為原因是什麼,就很難對這篇評論有看法。
Robert M. Blue - President, CEO & Chairman of the Board
Robert M. Blue - President, CEO & Chairman of the Board
Yes, Steve, I think it could be a little bit of all of the above of what you just described. Maybe I'd phrase it a different way is what investors are telling us they're looking for, what they're looking for is predictability. What they're looking for is earnings quality. They're looking for confidence in long-term growth. And so again, as we go through the review, those are the things that we're going to focus on to try to achieve for investors.
是的,史蒂夫,我認為這可能是您剛才描述的上述所有內容的一部分。也許我會換一種說法,那就是投資者告訴我們他們正在尋找的東西,他們正在尋找的是可預測性。他們正在尋找的是收益質量。他們正在尋找對長期增長的信心。同樣,當我們進行審查時,這些是我們將重點關注的事情,試圖為投資者實現。
Steven Isaac Fleishman - MD & Senior Analyst
Steven Isaac Fleishman - MD & Senior Analyst
Okay. I mean, obviously, by doing this, you've created more unpredictability. So it's got hard to -- it becomes kind of like a circular loop here.
好的。我的意思是,顯然,通過這樣做,你創造了更多的不可預測性。所以很難 - 它在這裡變得有點像一個循環。
Robert M. Blue - President, CEO & Chairman of the Board
Robert M. Blue - President, CEO & Chairman of the Board
Steve, what I would say, maybe it's unorthodox, although I think other companies have announced reviews, maybe it's a little unorthodox. But again, as I talked about before, continuing to do the same thing we've been doing may well just end up in the same results that we've achieved before. And we're going to listen to the market. And we look forward to the opportunity to engage with investors and get their perspectives as we're working our way through this. Again, our goal with this is to land on an outcome that provides predictability and quality, and we want to do it in a very transparent fashion.
史蒂夫,我想說的是,也許它是非正統的,雖然我認為其他公司已經宣布了評論,也許它有點非正統。但是,正如我之前所說,繼續做我們一直在做的事情很可能最終會得到我們以前取得的相同結果。我們將聽取市場的意見。我們期待有機會與投資者互動並了解他們的觀點,因為我們正在努力解決這個問題。同樣,我們的目標是獲得可提供可預測性和質量的結果,並且我們希望以非常透明的方式做到這一點。
Operator
Operator
And our next question comes from Jeremy Tonet from JPMorgan.
我們的下一個問題來自摩根大通的 Jeremy Tonet。
Jeremy Bryan Tonet - Senior Analyst
Jeremy Bryan Tonet - Senior Analyst
I just want to continue with the review a bit here, if I could. I just wanted to see, maybe asking a little bit differently, what options might be off the table here, beyond the nonregulated businesses, could you look to sell some of the LDCs here and we've seen others in the space with a lot of success on this side?
如果可以的話,我只想在這裡繼續進行一些評論。我只是想看看,也許問的有點不同,除了不受監管的業務之外,這裡可能有哪些選擇,你能不能在這裡出售一些最不發達國家,我們已經看到該領域的其他人有很多這方面的成功?
And then separately, just as it relates to the customer bill pressures, as you said. If you could address, what steps could be taken by Dominion to address that? And is there a way to address that, that isn't EPS or credit negative?
然後分開,正如你所說,它與客戶賬單壓力有關。如果您可以解決,Dominion 可以採取哪些措施來解決這個問題?有沒有辦法解決這個問題,不是每股收益或信用負面?
Robert M. Blue - President, CEO & Chairman of the Board
Robert M. Blue - President, CEO & Chairman of the Board
Yes. So let me start with the first one, Jeremy, what's off the table versus what's on the table. And the answer to what's off the table is the same as the answer to what's on, which is we've kicked off a review, top to bottom, and again, guided by the principles that we described in our opening comments. And then on the second part of your question, sort of policy initiatives, we described examples of things that we have done in our states over the course of the last few years to help customers, whether it was forgiving arrears, recovering RGGI costs through base rates, spreading out fuel over multiple periods of time.
是的。所以讓我從第一個開始,傑里米,什麼是桌面上的,什麼是桌面上的。對未討論內容的答案與對正在討論的問題的答案相同,即我們已經開始了審查,從上到下,再一次,以我們在開場評論中描述的原則為指導。然後在你問題的第二部分,政策舉措,我們描述了過去幾年我們在我們的州為幫助客戶所做的事情的例子,無論是寬恕拖欠,還是通過基地收回 RGGI 成本費率,在多個時間段內分散燃料。
As we work with policymakers and think through the most logical ways to assure that current customer bills don't get in the way of long-term customer investment, now we'll be thinking about those same approaches that we've used in the past and making sure that we achieve constructive regulatory outcomes, which I think we've demonstrated over the course of many years we're very good at achieving here.
當我們與政策制定者合作並通過最合乎邏輯的方法來確保當前的客戶賬單不會妨礙長期客戶投資時,現在我們將考慮過去使用的相同方法並確保我們取得建設性的監管成果,我認為多年來我們已經證明了我們非常擅長在這裡實現這一目標。
Jeremy Bryan Tonet - Senior Analyst
Jeremy Bryan Tonet - Senior Analyst
Got it. That's very helpful. And just pivoting, if I could here. Obviously, a lot of focus on the review, but I just want to touch base on the R&D side and see what kind of new initiatives are there, or if you could just update us on your thoughts.
知道了。這很有幫助。如果可以的話,只是旋轉。顯然,很多重點都放在了審查上,但我只想談談研發方面的基礎,看看有哪些新舉措,或者你是否可以向我們更新你的想法。
Diane G. Leopold - Executive VP & COO
Diane G. Leopold - Executive VP & COO
Jeremy, this is Diane. So the backlog just continues. It's going very well. As Bob brought up, if you do the count, we have 20 projects underway right now, 4 producing, 11 under construction and 5 more to be in construction by year-end. And those that are producing are producing as designed, and we're seeing very strong CARB scores out of them. So just how carbon negative they are, just focusing on this ag RNG business in the dairy and the swine side.
傑里米,這是黛安。所以積壓的工作還在繼續。進展非常順利。正如 Bob 提出的,如果你算一算,我們現在有 20 個項目正在進行中,4 個正在生產,11 個在建,到年底還有 5 個在建。那些正在生產的人正在按設計生產,我們看到他們的 CARB 分數非常高。所以他們是多麼的負碳,只關注乳製品和豬方面的農業 RNG 業務。
So we have invested or will have invested $1 billion in this and expected to produce somewhere in the range of about $200 million by 2025. So it's going very well.
因此,我們已經或將在這方面投資 10 億美元,預計到 2025 年將產生約 2 億美元的產量。所以進展非常順利。
Jeremy Bryan Tonet - Senior Analyst
Jeremy Bryan Tonet - Senior Analyst
Got it. Great. If I could sneak a last quick one, and just going back with the review here. Does the upcoming triennial impact your thought process at all here?
知道了。偉大的。如果我能偷偷摸摸最後一個快速的,然後在這裡回顧一下。即將到來的三年展會影響你的思考過程嗎?
Robert M. Blue - President, CEO & Chairman of the Board
Robert M. Blue - President, CEO & Chairman of the Board
No. The -- again, there are a lot of factors at play in our business and you can't identify any one of them where as we said, the focus is our share performance and what can we do to make sure we maintain our long-term capital investment programs.
不。再一次,我們的業務中有很多因素在起作用,你無法確定其中任何一個,正如我們所說,重點是我們的股票表現以及我們可以做些什麼來確保我們保持我們的長期資本投資計劃。
Operator
Operator
Thank you. This does conclude this morning's conference call. You may disconnect your lines and enjoy your day.
謝謝你。這確實結束了今天上午的電話會議。您可以斷開線路並享受您的一天。