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Operator
Operator
Welcome to the Dominion Energy Second Quarter Earnings Conference Call. (Operator Instructions) I would now like to turn the call over to David McFarland, Director of Investor Relations.
歡迎來到 Dominion Energy 第二季度收益電話會議。 (操作員說明)我現在想將電話轉給投資者關係總監 David McFarland。
David McFarland - VP of IR
David McFarland - VP of IR
Good morning, and thank you for joining today's call. Earnings materials, including today's prepared remarks, may contain forward-looking statements and estimates that are subject to various risks and uncertainties. Please refer to our SEC filings, including our most recent annual reports on Form 10-K and our quarterly reports on Form 10-Q, for a discussion of factors that may cause results to differ from management's estimates and expectations.
早上好,感謝您加入今天的電話會議。收益材料,包括今天準備好的評論,可能包含受各種風險和不確定性影響的前瞻性陳述和估計。請參閱我們提交給美國證券交易委員會的文件,包括我們最近關於表格 10-K 的年度報告和我們關於表格 10-Q 的季度報告,以討論可能導致結果與管理層的估計和預期不同的因素。
This morning, we will discuss some measures of our company's performance that differ from those recognized by GAAP. Reconciliation of our non-GAAP measures to the most directly comparable GAAP measures -- financial measures which we can calculate are contained in the earnings release kit. I encourage you to visit our Investor Relations website to review webcast slides as well as the earnings release kit.
今天上午,我們將討論一些與公認會計原則不同的公司業績衡量標準。我們的非公認會計原則措施與最直接可比的公認會計原則措施的對賬——我們可以計算的財務措施包含在收益發布工具包中。我鼓勵您訪問我們的投資者關係網站,查看網絡廣播幻燈片以及收益發布工具包。
Joining today's call are Bob Blue, Chair, President and Chief Executive Officer; Jim Chapman, Executive Vice President, Chief Financial Officer; and Diane Leopold, Executive Vice President, Chief Operating Officer.
加入今天的電話會議的是主席、總裁兼首席執行官 Bob Blue; Jim Chapman,執行副總裁兼首席財務官;和執行副總裁兼首席運營官 Diane Leopold。
I will now turn the call over to Bob.
我現在將把電話轉給 Bob。
Robert M. Blue - President, CEO & Chairman of the Board
Robert M. Blue - President, CEO & Chairman of the Board
Thank you, David, and good morning, everyone.
謝謝你,大衛,大家早上好。
We had another solid quarter and are well positioned to meet our expectations for the year. We're steadily executing on the largest decarbonization investment opportunity in the country, as outlined on our fourth quarter call in February. The successful execution of this plan is already benefiting our customers, communities, the environment and our investors.
我們又度過了一個穩健的季度,並且有能力滿足我們對今年的預期。正如我們在 2 月份的第四季度電話會議中所述,我們正在穩步執行該國最大的脫碳投資機會。該計劃的成功執行已經使我們的客戶、社區、環境和我們的投資者受益。
I'll begin with safety on Slide 4. Through June, our OSHA recordable rate was 0.52, which remains low relative to our historical levels and substantially below industry averages. We take pride in our relentless focus on safety, and it is the first of our company's core values.
我將從幻燈片 4 的安全性開始。截至 6 月,我們的 OSHA 可記錄率為 0.52,相對於我們的歷史水平仍然較低,並且大大低於行業平均水平。我們為我們對安全的不懈關注而感到自豪,這是我們公司的首要核心價值觀。
Now I'll turn to updates around the execution of our growth plan.
現在我將轉向有關我們增長計劃執行情況的更新。
First, at Dominion Energy Virginia. Our regulated offshore wind project development continues to be on schedule and on budget. On Friday, we received approval from the Virginia SEC for our rider and the CPCN for onshore transmission. The commission concluded that the project is in the public interest. And that our request for cost recovery associated with the project met all requirements as called for in the VCEA. We're continuing to review the specifics of the order, but we are extremely disappointed in the commission's requirement of a performance guarantee. While there are scant details, the order states the customer shall be held harmless for any shortfall in energy production below an annual net capacity factor of 42%, as measured on a 3-year rolling average. You may recall that 42% is also our projected 30-year lifetime average net capacity factor. Meaning, of course, that roughly half the time, it would be above that level and half below. Effectively, such guarantee would require DEV to financially guarantee the weather, among other factors beyond its control, for the life of the project. While no party opposed approval of the project, there were concerns raised regarding affordability and the financial risk to customers given a project of this magnitude. However, the commission's performance guarantee creates an unprecedented layer of financial one-way risk to DEV and is inconsistent with the utility risk profile expected by our investors. There are obviously factors that can affect the output of any generation facility, notwithstanding the reasonable and prudent actions of the operator, including natural disasters, acts of war or terrorism, changes in law or policy, regional transmission constraints or a host of other uncontrollable circumstances. We believe the commission already settled this issue when it declined to adopt a performance guarantee for our Clean Energy 1 solar projects in 2021 after such a provision was proposed by SEC staff. In that case, the commission ordered that involuntary performance guarantees, already unprecedented and regulated utility generation, are not required for projects specifically contemplated within the framework of the VCEA and needed by law to meet the objectives and requirements therein. By applying the commission's own logic, the same outcome should be made here. And all of this is occurring at a time when fuel costs have increased dramatically, leaving renewable energy as one of the few ways to alleviate inflationary pressures on electricity prices.
首先,在 Dominion Energy Virginia。我們受監管的海上風電項目開發繼續按計劃和預算進行。週五,我們獲得了弗吉尼亞 SEC 對我們的騎手和 CPCN 進行陸上傳輸的批准。委員會得出結論認為,該項目符合公共利益。並且我們對與該項目相關的成本回收的要求滿足了 VCEA 中要求的所有要求。我們正在繼續審查訂單的細節,但我們對委員會要求的履約保證感到非常失望。雖然細節很少,但該命令規定,如果能源生產的任何短缺低於 42% 的年淨容量係數(按 3 年滾動平均值衡量),客戶將不會受到傷害。您可能還記得 42% 也是我們預計的 30 年壽命平均淨容量係數。當然,這意味著大約有一半的時間會高於該水平,一半低於該水平。實際上,這種擔保將要求 DEV 在項目生命週期內為天氣以及其他無法控制的因素提供財務擔保。雖然沒有任何一方反對批准該項目,但人們對如此規模的項目的可負擔性和客戶的財務風險提出了擔憂。然而,委員會的履約保證給 DEV 帶來了前所未有的財務單向風險,並且與我們投資者預期的公用事業風險狀況不一致。儘管運營商採取了合理和謹慎的行動,但顯然有一些因素會影響任何發電設施的輸出,包括自然災害、戰爭或恐怖主義行為、法律或政策的變化、區域輸電限製或許多其他不可控的情況.我們認為,在 SEC 工作人員提出這樣的規定後,委員會拒絕在 2021 年為我們的清潔能源 1 太陽能項目採用性能保證時,已經解決了這個問題。在這種情況下,委員會下令,對於在 VCEA 框架內特別考慮的項目以及法律要求滿足其中的目標和要求的項目,不需要非自願的履約擔保,這已經是前所未有的和受監管的公用事業發電。通過應用委員會自己的邏輯,這裡應該得到同樣的結果。所有這一切都發生在燃料成本急劇增加的時候,使可再生能源成為緩解電價通脹壓力的少數方法之一。
As shown on Slide 5, offshore wind is expected to save Virginia customers billions of dollars in fuel costs. It will also enable economic development opportunities through Hampton Roads and the Commonwealth. This project is a key component to a diverse energy generation strategy to meet the commonwealth's clean energy goals while simultaneously meeting the need for an affordable and reliable grid. For example, it is expected to provide customers over $5 billion in benefits on a net present value as compared to being dependent upon purchasing energy and capacity from the PJM market.
如幻燈片 5 所示,海上風電有望為弗吉尼亞客戶節省數十億美元的燃料成本。它還將通過漢普頓路和英聯邦創造經濟發展機會。該項目是多元化能源生產戰略的關鍵組成部分,旨在滿足英聯邦的清潔能源目標,同時滿足對負擔得起的可靠電網的需求。例如,與依賴從 PJM 市場購買能源和容量相比,它預計將為客戶提供超過 50 億美元的淨現值收益。
In summary, we continue to believe this is an important and beneficial project for our customers. It also has significant stakeholder support. Nevertheless, the performance guarantee as outlined in the commission's order is untenable. We plan to actively engage with stakeholders on the unintended consequences of that provision and are reviewing all public policy options, including reconsideration or an appeal. So more to come here. We'll update you along the way.
總之,我們仍然相信這對我們的客戶來說是一個重要且有益的項目。它也有重要的利益相關者支持。然而,委員會命令中概述的履約保證是站不住腳的。我們計劃就該條款的意外後果與利益相關者積極互動,並正在審查所有公共政策選擇,包括重新考慮或上訴。所以更多的來這裡。我們會一路更新你。
Turning to other notable clean energy investment updates on Slide 7.
轉向幻燈片 7 上其他值得注意的清潔能源投資更新。
Last month, the Virginia SEC approved the settlement agreement for the nuclear subsequent license renewal rider filing. Nuclear life extension represents nearly $4 billion in capital investment through 2035. These Virginia units have performed exceptionally well for years, providing over 30% of our customers' energy needs and providing that energy at a low cost and with zero carbon emissions. Successful nuclear life extension is a win for our customers and the environment.
上個月,弗吉尼亞州 SEC 批准了核後續許可證更新附加條款的和解協議。到 2035 年,核壽命延長意味著近 40 億美元的資本投資。這些弗吉尼亞機組多年來表現異常出色,滿足了我們客戶 30% 以上的能源需求,並以低成本和零碳排放提供能源。成功的核壽命延長對我們的客戶和環境來說都是雙贏的。
On solar, our next clean energy filing will take place in the third quarter. We expect the filing to include about a dozen solar and energy storage projects. The filing will represent at least $1.5 billion of utility-owned and rider eligible investment, further de-risking our growth capital plan provided earlier this year.
在太陽能方面,我們的下一次清潔能源申報將在第三季度進行。我們預計該文件將包括十幾個太陽能和儲能項目。該文件將代表至少 15 億美元的公用事業擁有和騎手合格投資,進一步降低了我們今年早些時候提供的增長資本計劃的風險。
Let me touch on the solar supply chain. As we've discussed on prior calls, there continue to be challenges. Supply is still tight and prices for certain components are still up. However, our plans remain largely derisked.
讓我談談太陽能供應鏈。正如我們在之前的電話會議中所討論的那樣,挑戰仍然存在。供應仍然緊張,某些組件的價格仍在上漲。然而,我們的計劃在很大程度上仍然被取消了。
As it relates to the Department of Commerce's anti-circumvention review, I would remind everyone of the detailed remarks I shared on last quarter's call. We remain focused on the customer impact and advocate for energy policy that provides for an affordable clean energy transition. Development since our last call only reinforced our confidence in our near-term and long-term development expectations.
由於涉及商務部的反規避審查,我想提醒大家我在上季度電話會議上分享的詳細言論。我們仍然專注於對客戶的影響,並倡導提供負擔得起的清潔能源轉型的能源政策。自上次電話會議以來的發展只會增強我們對近期和長期發展預期的信心。
This past quarter, we received commission approval to suspend our Rider RGGI as Virginia works towards its exit from that program. We also received approval that RGGI compliance costs incurred through July 31 and not yet recovered, totaling approximately $180 million, we alternatively recovered through base rates currently in effect. These approvals provide a meaningful benefit to customer bills.
上個季度,我們收到了委員會批准暫停我們的 Rider RGGI,因為弗吉尼亞州正在努力退出該計劃。我們還獲得批准,截至 7 月 31 日發生的 RGGI 合規成本尚未收回,總計約 1.8 億美元,我們也可以通過目前有效的基準費率收回。這些批准為客戶賬單提供了有意義的好處。
Finally, last month, we reached a settlement agreement with the SEC staff on the fuel factor component in DEV's rates. The settlement includes our voluntary mitigation alternative to spread the recovery of the under-recovered fuel balance over a 3-year period to reduce the effect on customer bills. If approved, this settlement, together with other recent rate revisions, represents an increase to the typical residential customers monthly bill by approximately 7%.
最後,上個月,我們與 SEC 工作人員就 DEV 費率中的燃料因素部分達成了和解協議。和解協議包括我們的自願緩解替代方案,將回收不足的燃料餘額的回收分攤到 3 年期間,以減少對客戶賬單的影響。如果獲得批准,該和解連同最近的其他費率修訂,將使典型住宅客戶的每月賬單增加約 7%。
Turning to Slide 8. We're dedicated to the delivery of safe and reliable energy to our customers, which is also affordable. Based on data from the U.S. Census Bureau, the share of our customers' wallet attributable to DEV's customer bill has declined over the years, a testament to the fact that DEV's rates have remained relatively stable despite an overall increase in household income during that time. Also, as regards to the starting point for relative rates, we're proud to have rates today that remain below the national and various regional averages. Based on EIA data, our rates, even after taking into account our most recent fuel filing, are 8% lower than the national average. Looking ahead, we expect to continue to offer a compelling value proposition to our customers, with the addition of zero fuel resources to support sales growth in our service area.
轉到幻燈片 8。我們致力於為我們的客戶提供安全可靠的能源,這也是負擔得起的。根據美國人口普查局的數據,我們客戶錢包中 DEV 客戶賬單的份額多年來一直在下降,這證明了儘管在此期間家庭收入整體增加,DEV 的費率仍然相對穩定。此外,關於相對費率的起點,我們很自豪今天的費率仍低於全國和各個地區的平均水平。根據 EIA 數據,即使考慮到我們最近的燃料申報,我們的費率也比全國平均水平低 8%。展望未來,我們預計將繼續為我們的客戶提供令人信服的價值主張,並增加零燃料資源以支持我們服務領域的銷售增長。
As reflected on Slide 10, the share of our typical customer rate attributable to fuel is expected to decline, reducing our customers' exposure to future fuel cost fluctuations. By 2035, fuel is expected to be less than 10% of the total customer bill as compared to 25% of the total today. Our customers and our policymakers have made it abundantly clear. They want cleaner energy in a way that supports economic growth within our service area, and we're working to deliver those results.
正如幻燈片 10 所反映的,我們的典型客戶費率中歸因於燃料的份額預計將下降,從而減少我們的客戶對未來燃料成本波動的影響。到 2035 年,燃料預計將低於客戶總賬單的 10%,而今天這一比例為 25%。我們的客戶和政策制定者已經非常清楚地表明了這一點。他們希望以支持我們服務區域內經濟增長的方式使用更清潔的能源,而我們正在努力實現這些結果。
Let me now address data centers, which have provided strong sales growth in our service area to date, a trend we certainly expect to continue. Recently, we've been laser-focused on the potential for transmission constraints in a small pocket of Eastern Loudoun County, Virginia that could impact the pace of new connections for data center customers, which are shown on Slide 7.
現在讓我談談數據中心,迄今為止,這些數據中心在我們的服務領域實現了強勁的銷售增長,我們當然希望這種趨勢會持續下去。最近,我們一直專注於弗吉尼亞州東勞登縣一個小地方的傳輸限制的可能性,這可能會影響數據中心客戶的新連接速度,如幻燈片 7 所示。
Let me share a few thoughts on: one, what has created this issue; two, what's being done to resolve it; and three, the impact to our long-term financial plan.
讓我分享一些想法:一,是什麼造成了這個問題;二,正在採取什麼措施來解決它;三是對我們長期財務計劃的影響。
First, what has created this issue? The data center industry has grown substantially in Northern Virginia in recent years. In aggregate, we've connected nearly 70 data centers with over 2,600 megawatts of capacity since 2019. This is roughly equivalent to over 650,000 residential homes. Data center volumes today represent about 20% of total sales in Virginia. Last year, this growth began to accelerate in orders of magnitude, driven by: one, the number of data centers requesting to be connected on to our system; two, the size of each facility; and three, the acceleration of each facility's ramp schedule to reach full capacity. For some context, a single data center typically has demand of 30 megawatts or greater. However, we're now receiving individual requests for demand of 60 megawatts or greater. After extensive discussions and exchanges of data with our team throughout 2021, PJM incorporated this step change in growth into its 2022 load forecast, as shown on Slide 12. In 2027 alone, it shows an increase in data center load of 2,600 megawatts, which represents a 12% increase as compared to the forecast just last year. To put that in perspective, that is equal to the entire installed capacity of our planned offshore wind project. This is an important step as the official PJM DOM Zone load forecast is what governs all transmission planning and demonstration of need at both FERC and the Virginia State Corporation Commission. After reviewing existing load and contract commitments and validating the power flow models, we've identified the need to accelerate our previous plans for new transmission and substation infrastructure in this area of Eastern Loudoun County, bringing it forward by several years. To be clear, we're not at the limits of our facilities today, but we need to act now to alleviate transmission constraints in the future while serving our customers growth in this region.
首先,是什麼造成了這個問題?近年來,數據中心行業在北弗吉尼亞州大幅增長。自 2019 年以來,我們總共連接了近 70 個數據中心,容量超過 2,600 兆瓦。這大致相當於超過 650,000 戶住宅。今天的數據中心數量約佔弗吉尼亞州總銷售額的 20%。去年,這種增長開始以數量級加速,其驅動因素是:一,要求連接到我們系統的數據中心數量;二、每個設施的規模;第三,加快每個設施的坡道計劃以達到滿負荷。在某些情況下,單個數據中心的需求通常為 30 兆瓦或更高。但是,我們現在收到了要求 60 兆瓦或更高的個人請求。在整個 2021 年與我們的團隊進行廣泛討論和數據交換後,PJM 將這一增長變化納入其 2022 年負載預測,如幻燈片 12 所示。僅在 2027 年,數據中心負載就增加了 2,600 兆瓦,這代表與去年的預測相比增長了 12%。換個角度來看,這等於我們計劃的海上風電項目的全部裝機容量。這是重要的一步,因為官方的 PJM DOM 區域負荷預測是 FERC 和弗吉尼亞州公司委員會的所有輸電規劃和需求證明的依據。在審查了現有的負荷和合同承諾並驗證了潮流模型後,我們確定需要加快我們先前在勞登縣東部地區新建輸電和變電站基礎設施的計劃,並將其提前數年。需要明確的是,我們今天的設施不受限制,但我們現在需要採取行動,以緩解未來的傳輸限制,同時為我們在該地區的客戶增長提供服務。
As delivering safe and reliable energy to our customers is our core mission, one that includes maintaining transparency, we're actively engaged with our customers and other stakeholders to communicate about this potential issue. This resulted in a pause on new data center connections while we work on solutions to alleviate the constraints as quickly as possible. For the avoidance of any doubt, transmission capacity is not constrained outside of this data center alley in Eastern Loudoun County nor our data center customers in other parts of our service territory impacted by this issue.
由於為客戶提供安全可靠的能源是我們的核心使命,其中包括保持透明度,因此我們積極與客戶和其他利益相關者就這一潛在問題進行溝通。這導致新數據中心連接暫停,而我們正在研究解決方案以盡快緩解限制。為避免任何疑問,傳輸容量不受限制在東勞登縣的這個數據中心小巷之外,也不受我們在受此問題影響的服務區域其他部分的數據中心客戶的限制。
Second, what are we doing to resolve the issue? We are actively working on a variety of potential solutions to serve as much of this increased demand as possible, while we work to accelerate transmission solutions to ensure a safe and reliable grid. This includes reviewing the current capacity constraint analysis, including performing additional in-depth analysis substation by substation; engaging further with customers and other stakeholders on projects to pace new connections and ramp-up schedules; and reviewing a variety of technical alternatives to address areas of concentrated load. Based on the work and outreach done to date, it is clear that we will be able to resume new connections in the near term. But how much and how quickly is still being determined. The longer-term solution will absolutely require additional transmission infrastructure to be built. Among the needed additional infrastructure are 2 new 500 kV transmission lines into Eastern Loudoun County. We're working expeditiously with PJM, the SEC, local officials and other stakeholders to fast-track these along with several other critical projects in order to alleviate the constraints. In fact, we have already submitted plans for the first new 500 kV transmission line with an in-service target date of 2026 to PJM last week. And we plan to file for approval with the FCC in the coming weeks. We're committed to pursuing solutions that support our customers and the continued growth of the region.
第二,我們在做什麼來解決這個問題?我們正在積極研究各種潛在的解決方案,以盡可能多地滿足這種增加的需求,同時我們努力加快傳輸解決方案,以確保電網安全可靠。這包括審查當前的容量約束分析,包括對變電站進行額外的深入分析;進一步與客戶和其他利益相關者就項目進行接觸,以加快新的聯繫和加速計劃;並審查各種技術替代方案以解決集中負載區域。根據迄今為止所做的工作和外展活動,很明顯我們將能夠在短期內恢復新的聯繫。但多少和多快仍在確定中。長期解決方案絕對需要建造額外的傳輸基礎設施。所需的額外基礎設施包括連接東勞登縣的 2 條新的 500 kV 輸電線路。我們正在與 PJM、SEC、地方官員和其他利益相關者迅速合作,以加快這些項目以及其他幾個關鍵項目,以減輕限制。事實上,我們已經在上周向 PJM 提交了第一條新的 500 kV 輸電線路計劃,目標日期為 2026 年。我們計劃在未來幾週內向 FCC 申請批准。我們致力於尋求支持我們的客戶和該地區持續增長的解決方案。
Finally, what's the impact to our financial plan? It's still early, and we'll have to work through this issue. But at a high level, we see this issue as being neutral to our financial plan based on the following. For 2022, in the near term, we expect no impact to sales growth as we have sufficient transmission capacity to meet our customers' load growth as recently connected data centers are continuing to ramp-up their demand from existing facilities.
最後,對我們的財務計劃有什麼影響?現在還為時過早,我們必須解決這個問題。但在高層次上,我們認為這個問題對我們的財務計劃是中性的,基於以下幾點。對於 2022 年,我們預計短期內不會對銷售增長產生影響,因為我們有足夠的傳輸能力來滿足客戶的負載增長,因為最近連接的數據中心正在繼續增加他們對現有設施的需求。
A little more color for that perspective. Data centers tend to have longer ramp-up and load following their connection to the electric grid. Historically, that period is about 3 to 4 years, although we see that period shortening over time. For the latter few years of our 5-year plan, we expect slightly lower sales growth due to the transmission capacity constraints until new infrastructure can be placed into service. However, we expect to overcome any potential headwinds by the acceleration of needed new build transition projects from later in the long-term plan to earlier, which increases capital in rider form in our 5-year growth capital program. We plan to reflect such updates in our next roll forward to our long-term capital plan in early 2023. As a reminder, all related transmission capital spend is in rider form at FERC formula rates. We will continue to provide updates as things develop. We remain focused on our core responsibility of safely providing reliable energy to our customers. And it's worth noting that in Virginia last week, we reached a record summer peak demand, and our colleagues kept the electric grid operating flawlessly under demanding load conditions. We expect that exceptional performance to continue.
為那個視角多一點顏色。數據中心在連接到電網後往往具有更長的啟動和負載。從歷史上看,這個時期大約是 3 到 4 年,儘管我們看到這個時期隨著時間的推移而縮短。在我們 5 年計劃的後幾年,由於輸電能力的限制,我們預計銷售增長會略有下降,直到新的基礎設施能夠投入使用。但是,我們希望通過加速所需的新建過渡項目從長期計劃的後期到早期來克服任何潛在的不利因素,這會增加我們 5 年增長資本計劃中的附加資本。我們計劃在 2023 年初的長期資本計劃的下一次滾動中反映此類更新。提醒一下,所有相關的輸電資本支出均採用 FERC 公式費率的附加形式。隨著事情的發展,我們將繼續提供更新。我們仍然專注於為客戶安全地提供可靠能源的核心責任。值得注意的是,上週在弗吉尼亞州,我們達到了創紀錄的夏季高峰需求,我們的同事保持電網在苛刻的負載條件下完美運行。我們預計這種卓越的表現將繼續下去。
Turning to other business updates on Slide 13. At Dominion Energy South Carolina, new electric and gas customer accounts increased nearly 3% in the second quarter as compared to last year, driven by continued strong underlying population growth, as South Carolina's population continues to increase at one of the fastest rates in the nation. In addition, we've reduced the average annual customer outage minutes or SAIDI, by over 20% during the first half of the year relative to the same period last year. I note that we've been in the top quartile among all utilities in the Southeast 8 out of the past 10 years. Investments made in prior periods are critical to system reliability and the continuation of this trend for the benefit of our customers.
轉向幻燈片 13 上的其他業務更新。在南卡羅來納州的 Dominion Energy 能源公司,由於南卡羅來納州的人口持續增加,潛在人口持續強勁增長,第二季度新的電力和天然氣客戶賬戶與去年相比增加了近 3%以全國最快的速度之一。此外,與去年同期相比,我們在上半年將平均年度客戶停機時間或 SAIDI 減少了 20% 以上。我注意到,在過去 10 年中,我們在東南 8 州的所有公用事業公司中名列前四分之一。前期投資對於系統可靠性和這種趨勢的延續對於我們客戶的利益至關重要。
In that regard, let me provide an update on our Integrated Resource Plan. Last month, the South Carolina Public Service Commission unanimously approved our 2021 IRP update. As a reminder, our preferred plan is indicative of the potential for accelerated decarbonization and assumes our 3 remaining coal units are retired by the end of the decade, which would result in a nearly 60% reduction in DESC CO2 emissions. Recently, we filed a retirement study to evaluate the generation transmission resources needed to replace those units. These findings, among other updates, will be part of our 2022 IRP update expected to be filed next month. We look forward to engaging with all stakeholders on this planning process. Gas Distribution, our utilities operate in some of the fastest-growing areas of the country, with annual customer growth rates over 2% in 2 of our largest markets. We continue to see strong support for timely recovery on prudently incurred investment that provide safe, reliable, affordable and increasingly sustainable service.
在這方面,讓我介紹一下我們的綜合資源計劃的最新情況。上個月,南卡羅來納州公共服務委員會一致批准了我們的 2021 IRP 更新。提醒一下,我們的首選計劃表明了加速脫碳的潛力,並假設我們剩餘的 3 台煤炭機組在本世紀末退役,這將導致 DESC 二氧化碳排放量減少近 60%。最近,我們提交了一項退役研究,以評估更換這些單元所需的發電傳輸資源。這些發現以及其他更新將成為我們預計將於下個月提交的 2022 IRP 更新的一部分。我們期待與所有利益相關者一起參與此規劃過程。天然氣分銷,我們的公用事業公司在該國一些增長最快的地區開展業務,在我們最大的兩個市場中,客戶年增長率超過 2%。我們繼續看到對及時收回謹慎投資的大力支持,這些投資提供安全、可靠、負擔得起和越來越可持續的服務。
In May, we filed our statutorily scheduled rate case at Dominion Energy Utah. We're currently in the discovery phase and responding to data requests. We asked for an ROE of 10.3% and a revenue requirement increase of $70 million, which represents around a 6% increase to a typical customer bill. We expect new rates to be effective in January of next year.
5 月,我們在 Dominion Energy Utah 提交了我們的法定計劃費率案例。我們目前處於發現階段並響應數據請求。我們要求 ROE 為 10.3%,收入要求增加 7,000 萬美元,這相當於典型客戶賬單增加約 6%。我們預計新費率將於明年 1 月生效。
Last month, first gas occurred in our natural gas storage project in Utah, Magna LNG, which will be used to meet system reliability for customers' gas supply in the Salt Lake City area. We remain on schedule to place this facility in service later this year.
上個月,我們在猶他州的天然氣儲存項目 Magna LNG 產生了第一批天然氣,該項目將用於滿足鹽湖城地區客戶供氣的系統可靠性。我們將按計劃在今年晚些時候將該設施投入使用。
On RNG, we remain one of the largest agriculture-based RNG developers in the country. We've recently commenced operations at our fourth RNG project and expect 2 additional projects to come online this year, for a total of 6 projects producing negative carbon renewable natural gas. In addition to these 6 projects, we have a portfolio of projects in various stages of development, continuing progress toward our aspirational goal of investing up to $2 billion by 2035.
在 RNG 方面,我們仍然是該國最大的農業 RNG 開發商之一。我們最近開始運營我們的第四個 RNG 項目,預計今年還有 2 個項目上線,共有 6 個項目生產負碳可再生天然氣。除了這 6 個項目之外,我們還有處於不同發展階段的項目組合,繼續朝著我們到 2035 年投資高達 20 億美元的理想目標邁進。
Before I hand it over to Jim, I'll recap an important addition to our Board of Directors. Last month, our Board elected Kristin Lovejoy to serve as a director effective August 1. Kris brings CEO and entrepreneur experience, a global business perspective, a passion for diversity as a catalyst for business excellence, and deep experience in the intersection of business, technology and cybersecurity. Kris' skills and experience in management, governance and technology will enhance our continuing efforts to deliver on our core mission. We look forward to her leadership on behalf of the company and our 7 million customers.
在我把它交給吉姆之前,我將回顧一下我們董事會的一個重要成員。上個月,我們的董事會選舉 Kristin Lovejoy 擔任董事,自 8 月 1 日起生效。Kris 帶來了 CEO 和企業家的經驗、全球商業視角、對作為卓越商業催化劑的多元化的熱情,以及在商業、技術交叉領域的豐富經驗和網絡安全。 Kris 在管理、治理和技術方面的技能和經驗將加強我們繼續努力實現我們的核心使命。我們代表公司和我們的 700 萬客戶期待她的領導。
And with that, I'll turn the call over to Jim.
有了這個,我會把電話轉給吉姆。
James R. Chapman - Executive VP & CFO
James R. Chapman - Executive VP & CFO
Thanks, Bob. Now I'm going to discuss our second quarter results and a few related financial topics.
謝謝,鮑勃。現在我將討論我們的第二季度業績和一些相關的財務主題。
Our second quarter 2022 operating earnings, as shown on Slide 14, were $0.77 per share, which included $0.01 of hurt from worse than normal weather in our utility service territories. These results are above the midpoint of our quarterly guidance range, extending to 26th consecutive quarters our track record of delivering weather-normal quarterly results that meet or exceed the midpoint of our quarterly guidance ranges.
如幻燈片 14 所示,我們 2022 年第二季度的營業收益為每股 0.77 美元,其中包括公用事業服務領域比正常天氣惡劣造成的 0.01 美元損失。這些結果高於我們季度指導範圍的中點,延續到我們連續第 26 個季度提供符合或超過我們季度指導範圍中點的天氣正常季度業績的記錄。
Positive factors as compared to the second quarter last year included strong sales growth and increased regulated investment across electric and gas utility program. Other factors as compared to the prior year include a Millstone planned outage, some tax timing and share dilution.
與去年第二季度相比,積極因素包括強勁的銷售增長以及對電力和天然氣公用事業項目的監管投資增加。與上一年相比,其他因素包括 Millstone 計劃停電、一些稅收時機和股份稀釋。
Second quarter GAAP results reflect a net loss of $0.58 per share, which includes the previously announced sale of the retired Kewaunee nuclear power station in Wisconsin, the noncash mark-to-market impact of economic hedging activities, unrealized changes in the value of our nuclear decommissioning trust funds and other adjustments. A summary of all adjustments between operating and reported results is included in Schedule 2 of our earnings release kit.
第二季度 GAAP 結果反映每股淨虧損 0.58 美元,其中包括先前宣佈出售威斯康星州退役的 Kewaunee 核電站、經濟對沖活動的非現金按市值計價影響、我們核電價值的未實現變化退役信託基金和其他調整。我們的收益發布工具包的附表 2 中包含了運營和報告結果之間所有調整的摘要。
Turning now to guidance on Slide 15. For the third quarter of 2022, we expect operating earnings to be between $0.98 and $1.13 per share. Positive factors as compared to last year are expected to be normal course regulated rider growth and sales growth. Other factors as compared to last year are expected to be interest expense, tax timing and share dilution.
現在轉向幻燈片 15 的指導。對於 2022 年第三季度,我們預計營業收益將在每股 0.98 美元至 1.13 美元之間。與去年相比,積極因素預計將是正常路線調節的騎手增長和銷售增長。與去年相比,其他因素預計為利息支出、稅收時機和股份稀釋。
We are affirming our existing full year and long-term operating earnings and dividend guidance as well. No changes here from prior guidance.
我們也在確認我們現有的全年和長期運營收益和股息指引。與之前的指導相比,這裡沒有變化。
Through the first half of this year, weather normal operating EPS of $1.93 is tracking in line with our expectations. We'll provide our formal fourth quarter earnings guidance as is typical on our next earnings call, but let me provide some commentary on the implied cadence of our earnings over the second half of this year. As compared to last year, we expect a number of items will lead to a slightly larger fourth quarter, including normal course regulated rider growth, the absence of a Millstone planned outage, absence of last year's COVID deferred O&M, and tax timing that combined are expected to help us deliver solid second half results, in line with our annual guidance.
今年上半年,天氣正常的運營每股收益為 1.93 美元,符合我們的預期。我們將在下一次財報電話會議上提供正式的第四季度收益指引,但讓我對今年下半年我們收益的隱含節奏發表一些評論。與去年相比,我們預計許多項目將導致第四季度略有增長,包括正常的賽道受監管的車手增長、沒有 Millstone 計劃的停電、沒有去年的 COVID 延期 O&M 以及稅收時機,這些因素加起來是預計將幫助我們根據我們的年度指導實現穩健的下半年業績。
Next, let me touch on electric sales trend.
接下來,讓我談談電動銷售趨勢。
In Virginia, weather-normalized sales increased 2.5% over the 12 months through June as compared to the prior year period and 1.1% in South Carolina. Components of this growth include a slight decline for residential, as you'd expect, continued back to work trend and higher growth for the commercial segment. For 2022, we expect the growth rate to moderate some as we move into the second half of the year and we expect overall sales to be just slightly above our long-term run rate of 1% to 1.5% per year.
在弗吉尼亞州,截至 6 月的 12 個月內,天氣正常化銷售額同比增長 2.5%,南卡羅來納州增長 1.1%。如您所料,這種增長的組成部分包括住宅的小幅下降,繼續恢復工作的趨勢以及商業領域的更高增長。對於 2022 年,隨著我們進入下半年,我們預計增長率將有所放緩,我們預計整體銷售額將略高於我們每年 1% 至 1.5% 的長期運行率。
I know this topic of sales expectations for our sector is of interest to many investors as we head into what is perhaps a less certain economic period. So we are again providing demand-related earnings sensitivities for our 2 electric utilities in today's materials, as we show on Slide 16. Let me share some commentary.
我知道隨著我們進入一個可能不太確定的經濟時期,許多投資者對我們行業的銷售預期這個話題很感興趣。因此,正如我們在幻燈片 16 中展示的那樣,我們再次在今天的材料中為我們的 2 家電力公司提供與需求相關的收益敏感性。讓我分享一些評論。
First, for our largest segment, Dominion Energy Virginia. You'll recall that demand in PJM DOM Zone in the last few years was despite the pandemic relatively resilient due to robust residential and data center demand, as Bob touched on. Around 50% of DEV's operating revenues are effectively decoupled from changes in load due to riders, and fuel pass-through, a dynamic that is reflected in the EPS rules of thumb provided on this page.
首先,對於我們最大的細分市場,Dominion Energy Virginia。正如 Bob 談到的那樣,儘管由於住宅和數據中心需求強勁,過去幾年 PJM DOM Zone 的需求仍然相對具有彈性。 DEV 約 50% 的營業收入有效地與因騎手和燃油傳遞引起的負載變化脫鉤,這一動態反映在本頁提供的 EPS 經驗法則中。
Let me now turn to South Carolina, which is more exposed to industrial load, but on the other hand, continues to benefit from strong customer growth, as Bob mentioned. In addition, like Virginia, there are structural mitigants to the load impact on revenue, including riders and fuel passenger mechanisms as well as a gas operation that adjusts annually for changes in usage. In total, about half of DESC's operating revenues are also effectively decoupled from changes in load.
現在讓我談談南卡羅來納州,它更容易受到工業負荷的影響,但另一方面,正如鮑勃所說,它繼續受益於強勁的客戶增長。此外,與弗吉尼亞州一樣,負載對收入的影響也存在結構性緩解措施,包括乘客和燃料乘客機制,以及每年根據使用變化進行調整的燃氣運營。總體而言,DESC 大約一半的營業收入也有效地與負荷變化脫鉤。
Turning now to our other business segments. At Gas Distribution, about 88% of segment operating margin is stabilized through decoupling or fixed charges, including riders and gas pass-through mechanisms. And our contracted assets segment operates primarily under long-term PPA or hedge arrangements. In West Virginia, we recently reached a comprehensive settlement agreement with the West Virginia Public Service Commission staff and other parties to approve the sale of Hope Gas. If approved by the West Virginia Commission, the transaction may close as soon as the end of this month.
現在轉向我們的其他業務部門。在 Gas Distribution,約 88% 的部門營業利潤率通過脫鉤或固定收費(包括附加費和燃氣直通機制)得以穩定。我們的合同資產部門主要在長期 PPA 或對沖安排下運營。在西弗吉尼亞州,我們最近與西弗吉尼亞州公共服務委員會工作人員和其他各方達成了一項全面的和解協議,以批准出售希望天然氣。如果獲得西弗吉尼亞州委員會的批准,該交易最早可能在本月底完成。
So we've covered a lot of ground today. We continue to aggressively execute on our decarbonization investment programs to meet our customers' needs, while creating jobs and spurring new business growth. We'll be actively engaging with stakeholders on offshore wind and reviewing all public policy options, including reconsideration or appeal of the SCC order. We'll be filing our next clean energy solar and storage rider in Virginia later in the quarter. We're working expeditiously with all stakeholders to alleviate the constraints in Eastern Loudoun County for our data center customers. We're quite pleased that the South Carolina Public Service Commission unanimously approved our 2021 IRP. And we're on track to meet our annual earnings guidance.
所以我們今天已經介紹了很多內容。我們繼續積極執行我們的脫碳投資計劃,以滿足客戶的需求,同時創造就業機會並刺激新的業務增長。我們將積極與海上風電利益相關者合作,並審查所有公共政策選擇,包括重新考慮或上訴 SCC 令。我們將在本季度晚些時候在弗吉尼亞州提交我們的下一個清潔能源太陽能和儲能騎手。我們正在與所有利益相關者迅速合作,為我們的數據中心客戶減輕東勞登縣的限制。我們很高興南卡羅來納州公共服務委員會一致批准了我們的 2021 年 IRP。我們有望實現我們的年度收益指導。
With that, we're ready to take your questions.
有了這個,我們準備好回答你的問題了。
Operator
Operator
(Operator Instructions) And we'll take our first question from Shahriar Pourreza from Guggenheim Partners.
(操作員說明)我們將向 Guggenheim Partners 的 Shahriar Pourreza 提出第一個問題。
Shahriar Pourreza - MD and Head of North American Power
Shahriar Pourreza - MD and Head of North American Power
So Bob, just maybe starting with offshore wind and the performance guarantee. I know it's -- obviously, it's a tough position to be in here. It's a lot of risk you're going to be taking on, and that could be kind of long term in nature. I know you guys talked about paths to resolve. But what if you don't resolve, right? So one, we know it's a lot of growth for you. But could you decide to walk away from this project as order going to be a no go? And two, I know you laid out some thoughts in the script on next steps. Is there a bid-ask here that would make some sort of a standard palatable? Could you negotiate this, or any performance guarantees or a no go?
所以鮑勃,也許只是從海上風電和性能保證開始。我知道這是 - 顯然,在這裡是一個艱難的位置。你將要承擔很大的風險,而且這可能是長期的。我知道你們談到了解決的途徑。但是,如果你不解決,對吧?所以一,我們知道這對你來說是一個很大的增長。但是你能決定放棄這個項目嗎?第二,我知道你在腳本中列出了一些關於下一步的想法。這裡是否有一個讓某種標準可口的買賣?你可以協商這個,或任何性能保證或不去嗎?
Robert M. Blue - President, CEO & Chairman of the Board
Robert M. Blue - President, CEO & Chairman of the Board
Yes, Shar. First of all, I'm shocked that you didn't ask about Millstone that breaks through.
是的,夏爾。首先,我很震驚你沒有問突破的磨石。
Shahriar Pourreza - MD and Head of North American Power
Shahriar Pourreza - MD and Head of North American Power
Yes. That was my follow-up question.
是的。那是我的後續問題。
Robert M. Blue - President, CEO & Chairman of the Board
Robert M. Blue - President, CEO & Chairman of the Board
Okay. Fair enough. All right. Fair enough. Good. I'm glad you're remaining consistent. But let me address the questions that you asked.
好的。很公平。好的。很公平。好的。我很高興你保持一致。但是,讓我解決你提出的問題。
It's premature to be talking about that, Shar. We just got this order on Friday afternoon. As we said in our prepared remarks, there's very little detail in that order. And as it is drafted, as we look at it, it is inconsistent with the utility risk profile expected by our investors. But it's a great project and it has a lot of stakeholder support. There are options for us to seek reconsideration and options for us to work with stakeholders so that we can get the clarity that we need for this to meet our expectations of what utility investors are looking for. So we're confident that we're going to be able to get that clarity as we work with stakeholders. But we're just 72 hours after the order so there's not a lot more beyond that, that I can tell you this morning.
夏爾,現在談論這個還為時過早。我們週五下午剛接到這個訂單。正如我們在準備好的評論中所說,該順序中的細節很少。在起草時,正如我們所看到的那樣,它與投資者預期的公用事業風險狀況不一致。但這是一個偉大的項目,它有很多利益相關者的支持。我們可以選擇重新考慮,也可以選擇與利益相關者合作,這樣我們就可以獲得所需的明確性,以滿足我們對公用事業投資者的期望。因此,我們有信心在與利益相關者合作時能夠弄清楚這一點。但是我們距離訂單只有 72 小時,所以除此之外,我今天早上可以告訴你。
Shahriar Pourreza - MD and Head of North American Power
Shahriar Pourreza - MD and Head of North American Power
Bob, any -- I guess, any sense on just the timing and when we can get some more clarity or resolution on this?
鮑勃,任何——我想,對時間安排以及我們何時可以對此有更清晰或解決方案有任何意義嗎?
Robert M. Blue - President, CEO & Chairman of the Board
Robert M. Blue - President, CEO & Chairman of the Board
Yes. That will depend obviously on stakeholders and on the commission. So we'll work through that, I would hope. And over the coming weeks is the kind of time line that we would be looking for, for something like this.
是的。這顯然取決於利益相關者和委員會。所以我們會解決這個問題,我希望。在接下來的幾周里,我們會尋找這樣的時間線。
Shahriar Pourreza - MD and Head of North American Power
Shahriar Pourreza - MD and Head of North American Power
Okay. Got it. Got it. And then -- just maybe just switching gears quickly to Washington. Obviously, the IRA passed the Senate. It seems to be a lot of puts and takes for utilities. And how are you, I guess, thinking about the potential impacts of the 15% AMT on cash flows and rate base growth weighted against maybe the enlargement and extension of some of those tax credits? And just remind us on the AMT recovery methods in the States. And should we assume some lag?
好的。知道了。知道了。然後——也許只是快速切換到華盛頓。顯然,愛爾蘭共和軍通過了參議院。公用事業的投入和投入似乎很多。我猜你是如何考慮 15% 的 AMT 對現金流和利率基數增長的潛在影響,以及這些稅收抵免的擴大和延伸?並提醒我們美國的 AMT 恢復方法。我們應該假設一些滯後嗎?
James R. Chapman - Executive VP & CFO
James R. Chapman - Executive VP & CFO
Shar, it's Jim. Let me recap our view on the act, the Inflation Reduction Act. Still a moving target, of course. Really good that it passed the Senate. We'll see what other amendments pop up, if any, as it goes to the House this week.
夏爾,是吉姆。讓我回顧一下我們對該法案的看法,即《降低通脹法案》。當然,仍然是一個移動的目標。真的很好,它通過了參議院。我們將看看本週會出現哪些其他修正案,如果有的話。
But here's where we are on broad strokes. So really high level, pretty good. Really positive from a decarbonization incentive perspective. Really positive for a utility customer cost perspective. So good.
但這就是我們大體上的地方。水平真的很高,很不錯。從脫碳激勵的角度來看確實是積極的。從公用事業客戶成本的角度來看,這確實是積極的。超好的。
When it comes to all of the impacts to Dominion's financial plan, you touched on a little bit of it, the devil's in the details. It's going to take a long time before all the treasury regs are worked out. I mean it's not even law yet. But right now, based on what we know, we don't really see a major impact to our plan.
當談到對 Dominion 財務計劃的所有影響時,您觸及了一點點,魔鬼在細節中。制定所有國庫法規需要很長時間。我的意思是它甚至還不是法律。但是現在,根據我們所知道的,我們並沒有真正看到對我們的計劃產生重大影響。
Now customer beneficial incentive is good, and that could have some knock-on effects that are positive. But we don't see it as being an impact.
現在對客戶有利的激勵是好的,這可能會產生一些積極的連鎖反應。但我們不認為這是一種影響。
And let me talk about a little bit the parts. ITC and PTC, the extension, the increases, again, all good. Good for us, good in the sense that it's direct customer bill benefit. We assume that we're going to continue to do what we've already been doing, recognizing those benefits in the customer bill over time. And it's different for different assets.
讓我談談一些部分。 ITC 和 PTC,擴展,增加,再次,一切都很好。對我們有好處,因為它是直接的客戶賬單利益。我們假設我們將繼續做我們已經在做的事情,隨著時間的推移在客戶賬單中認識到這些好處。對於不同的資產,它是不同的。
So nuclear PTC, a big topic of discussion, of course. We view that as positive as well for us, for the nuclear industry, for customers. I think there, it's going to take some real time before the regulations are worked out, to determine how exactly nuclear units within a vertically regulated utility, like most of ours, how they're treated when it comes to earned revenue per megawatt hour. Because there's a phase out, right? $43 a megawatt hour. Above that, you're not eligible. But we'll see. We have low-cost units. Should be eligible. How that's calculated for a vertically regulated utility? No detail yet. If we qualify under that cap, it's a benefit to our customers in Virginia and South Carolina, no question.
所以核PTC,當然是個大討論話題。我們認為這對我們、核工業和客戶來說都是積極的。我認為,在製定法規之前需要一些實時時間,以確定像我們大多數人一樣,垂直監管的公用事業中的核電機組究竟如何,在每兆瓦時的收入方面如何對待它們。因為有一個淘汰,對吧? 43 美元一兆瓦時。高於此,您沒有資格。但我們會看到的。我們有低成本的單位。應該有資格。對於垂直監管的公用事業,這是如何計算的?還沒有細節。如果我們符合該上限,毫無疑問,這對我們在弗吉尼亞州和南卡羅來納州的客戶有利。
Millstone, obviously, not regulated, hedged, PPA. But as a reminder, under that existing 10-year PPA, all tax attributes, new taxes attributes, like this, for 100% of the plant output, they flow through to the PPA offtakers and their customers. So again, customer-friendly element, even for Millstone. And long term, good for the industry, good for the future of Millstone, whatever happens after that 10-year PPA.
Millstone,顯然,不受監管,對沖,PPA。但提醒一下,在現有的 10 年 PPA 下,所有稅收屬性,新的稅收屬性,像這樣,對於 100% 的工廠產出,它們都會流向 PPA 承購商及其客戶。再說一次,對客戶友好的元素,即使對於 Millstone 也是如此。從長遠來看,對行業有利,對 Millstone 的未來有利,無論 10 年 PPA 之後發生什麼。
For offshore wind, again, sticking with PTC. On the surface, we expect kind of the same thing that we talked about in the BBB era, that if there's a full rate PTC, which the Senate version includes a full rate PTC, that could lower the LCOE for our offshore wind project by up to $7. So pretty good there, too.
對於海上風電,再次堅持使用 PTC。從表面上看,我們期待與我們在 BBB 時代談論的相同的事情,如果有一個全費率 PTC,參議院版本包括一個全費率 PTC,這可能會降低我們海上風電項目的 LCOE到 7 美元。那裡也很好。
So all that, the PTCs, ITCs, the extension, the increase, we think it's good in a customer-friendly way, and that can have, as I mentioned, knock-on effects. The AMT, of course, the other part, in my sense for the AMT is it's going to impact companies even in our industry in really different ways depending on whether you're a cash taxpayer right now or not and whether you generate credits or not, ITC, PTC. So in our case, we're already a federal cash taxpayer and have been for some years.
所以所有這一切,PTC、ITC、擴展、增加,我們認為它以對客戶友好的方式是好的,正如我所提到的,這可能會產生連鎖反應。 AMT,當然,另一部分,在我看來,對於 AMT,它甚至會以非常不同的方式影響我們行業的公司,這取決於你現在是否是現金納稅人,以及你是否產生信用,國貿中心,PTC。因此,就我們而言,我們已經是聯邦現金納稅人,並且已經有好幾年了。
So our rates though, our federal cash tax rate is shielded by our inventory of tax credits because we generate a lot of tax credit. So as you know, Shar, the way that works is the 21% top federal rate is shielded by tax credits, but the maximum you can shield is 75% of your cash tax liability. So that means for us, our current federal cash tax rate is 5.25%. So 25% of the federal 21% -- 25 -- 25% (inaudible) 21%. So the IRA, this bill, totally different approach, 15% minimum on adjusted GAAP pretax income. And those adjustments, again, devil's in detail, but you take out pension plans, you take out NDTs, you add in the -- I mean, this is a change from over the week, and you add in accelerated tax depreciation from the tax book into this calculation of GAAP -- adjusted GAAP. But the tax credit, that shield remains. So you can still shield up to 75% of your cash tax liability with credits. So in this case, it'd be -- not the 5.25% of your tax -- pre-taxable income, but it would be 3.75% of adjusted GAAP, so 25% of the 15%. So a lot of math there. But you can probably guess from that, that taking a view on a go-forward basis, like what is this going to look like? What's the difference between 5.25% of taxable income compared to 3.25% of adjusted GAAP, how does it change over time? It's complicated. But our view based on what we know is probably kind of in the same general area since we're already a cash taxpayer. So that drives us to the conclusion that, look, devil's in the details, we're not seeing a material impact. So details come. We'll see where it lands this week in the house. We would guess that the dust will settle in the next couple of weeks, and we're going to be in a position to talk about the detailed impacts on a more granular basis by the time we're sitting down with you and others at EEI.
所以我們的稅率,我們的聯邦現金稅率受到我們的稅收抵免清單的保護,因為我們產生了大量的稅收抵免。如你所知,夏爾,21% 的最高聯邦稅率是由稅收抵免保護的,但你可以保護的最高稅率是你現金應納稅額的 75%。所以這對我們來說意味著,我們目前的聯邦現金稅率是 5.25%。所以 25% 的聯邦 21% -- 25 -- 25% (聽不清) 21%。所以愛爾蘭共和軍,這個法案,完全不同的方法,調整後的 GAAP 稅前收入最低 15%。再一次,這些調整的細節是魔鬼,但是你拿出養老金計劃,你拿出無損檢測,你添加 - 我的意思是,這是一周以來的變化,你添加了稅收中的加速稅收折舊記入這個公認會計原則的計算——調整後的公認會計原則。但是稅收抵免,這個盾牌仍然存在。因此,您仍然可以通過抵免抵免高達 75% 的現金納稅義務。所以在這種情況下,它是——不是你稅收的 5.25%——應稅前收入,而是調整後的 GAAP 的 3.75%,所以是 15% 的 25%。所以那裡有很多數學。但是您可能會從中猜到,在前進的基礎上進行觀察,例如這會是什麼樣子? 5.25% 的應稅收入與 3.25% 的調整後 GAAP 有什麼區別,它隨著時間的推移如何變化?情況很複雜。但我們基於我們所知道的觀點可能屬於同一領域,因為我們已經是現金納稅人。所以這促使我們得出結論,看,魔鬼在細節中,我們沒有看到實質性的影響。所以細節來了。我們將看看這週它在房子裡的位置。我們猜測未來幾週塵埃落定,我們將能夠在 EEI 與您和其他人坐下來更詳細地討論詳細影響.
Operator
Operator
Our next question comes from Jeremy Tonet from JPMorgan.
我們的下一個問題來自摩根大通的 Jeremy Tonet。
Jeremy Bryan Tonet - Senior Analyst
Jeremy Bryan Tonet - Senior Analyst
Maybe I'll pick up with Millstone a little bit here. And there were some reports that Massachusetts might have interest in nuclear power. And just wondering, any thoughts that you could share there? And I guess, does things change with the PPC for Millstone? Just any thoughts on this as it relates to regular -- regulated and nonregulated nuclear in Massachusetts potential interest in Millstone.
也許我會在這裡稍微了解一下 Millstone。還有一些報導稱馬薩諸塞州可能對核電感興趣。只是想知道,您可以在那里分享任何想法嗎?我想,Millstone 的 PPC 會改變嗎?對此的任何想法都與馬薩諸塞州對 Millstone 的潛在利益相關的常規 - 受監管和不受監管的核能有關。
Robert M. Blue - President, CEO & Chairman of the Board
Robert M. Blue - President, CEO & Chairman of the Board
Well, as we've been saying for a while, Jeremy, we think Millstone is critical to the New England region achieving its zero carbon goals. And our view on that has only grown. Our confidence on that has only grown in recent months. The Connecticut General Assembly passed a law allowing for additional nuclear as long as it's at the site of an existing nuclear plant. Obviously, that would be Millstone. So we think there's an increasing recognition of the value of Millstone. And we're happy to work with stakeholders throughout the region on ensuring that Millstone is there to help them meet their clean energy goals. But beyond that, sort of specific to the recent developments in Massachusetts, not a lot to offer. We just think it's a great long-term asset, incredibly valuable to the region.
好吧,正如我們一直在說的,傑里米,我們認為米爾斯通對於新英格蘭地區實現其零碳目標至關重要。我們對此的看法只會越來越多。我們對此的信心在最近幾個月才有所增強。康涅狄格州議會通過了一項法律,允許在現有核電站所在地增加核能。顯然,那將是米爾斯通。因此,我們認為 Millstone 的價值得到了越來越多的認可。我們很高興與整個地區的利益相關者合作,確保 Millstone 能夠幫助他們實現清潔能源目標。但除此之外,具體到馬薩諸塞州最近的事態發展,沒什麼可提供的。我們只是認為這是一項偉大的長期資產,對該地區非常有價值。
Jeremy Bryan Tonet - Senior Analyst
Jeremy Bryan Tonet - Senior Analyst
Got it. That's helpful. And just as it relates to the issues around the data centers with regards to congestion there. Could you provide any more color on what the accelerated T&D investments might look there? And could you provide us a perspective on potential dollar amounts here and what size of the plan this represents? Just trying to see if there's any more detail possible that you could provide on this side.
知道了。這很有幫助。正如它與數據中心周圍的擁塞問題有關。您能否提供更多關於加速 T&D 投資可能看起來的顏色?您能否向我們介紹一下這裡的潛在美元金額以及這代表的計劃規模?只是想看看您是否可以在這方面提供更多細節。
James R. Chapman - Executive VP & CFO
James R. Chapman - Executive VP & CFO
Jeremy, it's Jim. Full detail to come on our full roll forward of our 5-year plan. And you'll see changes there, an acceleration of transmission spend. One data point that's out there, last week, there was a filing with PJM for one required transmission investment, one of several to come to make sure we're meeting demand there. And that was $500 million to $600 million. But that's not the total. More will be defined in our planning, and we'll discuss that on our fourth quarter call when we do our full roll forward of our capital plan, including all the transmission spend in Virginia.
傑里米,是吉姆。全面推進我們的 5 年計劃的全部細節。你會看到那裡的變化,傳輸支出的加速。上周有一個數據點,向 PJM 提交了一項所需的傳輸投資的文件,這是確保我們滿足那裡需求的幾個之一。那是5億到6億美元。但這還不是總數。我們將在計劃中定義更多內容,我們將在第四季度電話會議上討論這一點,屆時我們將全面推進我們的資本計劃,包括弗吉尼亞州的所有輸電支出。
Operator
Operator
Next question comes from Ross Fowler from UBS.
下一個問題來自瑞銀的羅斯福勒。
Robert M. Blue - President, CEO & Chairman of the Board
Robert M. Blue - President, CEO & Chairman of the Board
Ross, can you hear us? We're not hearing you. We'll try again. Operator, shall we go to the next in the queue?
羅斯,你能聽到我們的聲音嗎?我們沒有聽到你的聲音。我們會再試一次。接線員,我們去隊列中的下一個嗎?
Ross A. Fowler - Executive Director & Equity Research Analyst of Utilities
Ross A. Fowler - Executive Director & Equity Research Analyst of Utilities
Can you hear me?
你能聽到我嗎?
Robert M. Blue - President, CEO & Chairman of the Board
Robert M. Blue - President, CEO & Chairman of the Board
There we go.
我們去吧。
Ross A. Fowler - Executive Director & Equity Research Analyst of Utilities
Ross A. Fowler - Executive Director & Equity Research Analyst of Utilities
So just a couple of questions. So Jim, you talked about how it's up to $7 a megawatt hour savings in terms of the PTCs, should the House pass this as written, against that $80 to $90 a megawatt hour cost for offshore wind or LCOE. That would also lower the cost cap at $125 because it's a 1.4x multiple. I just want to make sure that I'm clear on that.
所以只是幾個問題。所以吉姆,你談到瞭如果眾議院按書面規定通過的話,就 PTC 而言,每兆瓦時最多可以節省 7 美元,而海上風電或 LCOE 的成本是每兆瓦時 80 到 90 美元。這也會將成本上限降低到 125 美元,因為它是 1.4 倍。我只是想確保我清楚這一點。
Robert M. Blue - President, CEO & Chairman of the Board
Robert M. Blue - President, CEO & Chairman of the Board
Yes, Ross. Actually, that it does not affect the cost cap. The multiple in the statute is off of a CT, what the LCOE of a CT from the EIA report of 2019, I think it was. So that change, while incredibly valuable to our customers, does not change the cost cap figure.
是的,羅斯。實際上,它不會影響成本上限。法規中的倍數來自 CT,我認為是 2019 年 EIA 報告中 CT 的 LCOE。因此,這種變化雖然對我們的客戶非常有價值,但不會改變成本上限數字。
Ross A. Fowler - Executive Director & Equity Research Analyst of Utilities
Ross A. Fowler - Executive Director & Equity Research Analyst of Utilities
Got you. Got you. So it gives you more headroom to that cap. All right. And then in the original settlement for offshore winds, there certainly wasn't a performance guarantee. But there was this concept of lower capacity factor of about 37%. And then you'd report to the commission if it was ever lower than that on a 3-year rolling average. And then the commission would determine whether that was a deficiency related to basically unreasonable actions by you versus sort of weather and everything else. So it seems like there's space between that and what was very unclearly written in the order as a reconsideration here to make sure we're not necessarily punishing you for the weather and things you can't control. Is that fair? Is that kind of where you see and where we could be headed here?
得到你。得到你。所以它為你提供了更多的空間來達到這個上限。好的。然後在最初的海上風電解決方案中,當然沒有性能保證。但是有這個概念,即較低的容量因數約為 37%。然後,如果它低於 3 年滾動平均值,你會向委員會報告。然後委員會將確定這是否與您的基本不合理行為與天氣和其他一切有關。因此,看起來這與訂單中寫得很不清楚的內容之間存在空間,作為重新考慮,以確保我們不一定會因為天氣和您無法控制的事情而懲罰您。這公平嗎?是那種你看到的地方,我們可以去這裡嗎?
Robert M. Blue - President, CEO & Chairman of the Board
Robert M. Blue - President, CEO & Chairman of the Board
Yes. I mean, you accurately described the performance provision and the stipulation. And yes, so there's space in between. And as we mentioned, we intend to work with stakeholders. Obviously, just got the order less than 72 hours ago. But that space in between, I think, is precisely where we would be looking to try to find common ground.
是的。我的意思是,您準確地描述了性能條款和規定。是的,所以兩者之間有空間。正如我們所提到的,我們打算與利益相關者合作。顯然,不到 72 小時前才收到訂單。但我認為,這兩者之間的空間正是我們試圖找到共同點的地方。
Operator
Operator
And our next question comes from Julien Dumoulin-Smith from Bank of America.
我們的下一個問題來自美國銀行的 Julien Dumoulin-Smith。
Julien Patrick Dumoulin-Smith - Director and Head of the US Power, Utilities & Alternative Energy Equity Research
Julien Patrick Dumoulin-Smith - Director and Head of the US Power, Utilities & Alternative Energy Equity Research
(inaudible) quarter here. If I can, just following up a little bit from Jeremy here, the timing of that CapEx related to PJM, if I can. Can you elaborate a little bit on it, as well as maybe how this might tie into some of the queue reform that we're seeing with PJM? Obviously, that impacts more from the renewable side. But again, obviously, load interconnect matters as well here as it goes. Can you talk a little bit about that from a PJM perspective? Obviously, you submitted these things to PJM.
(聽不清)四分之一在這裡。如果可以,請從 Jeremy 那裡跟進一點,如果可以的話,與 PJM 相關的資本支出的時間安排。您能否詳細說明一下,以及這可能如何與我們在 PJM 中看到的一些隊列改革聯繫起來?顯然,這對可再生能源的影響更大。但是,顯然,負載互連在這裡也很重要。您能從 PJM 的角度談一談嗎?顯然,您將這些東西提交給了 PJM。
And then if I can go on -- the second question is the same. It's all related. You identified a series of numbers here related to load sensitivity to data centers. And if I get it right, you're talking about 12% number. And broadly speaking, it kind of backs into about a 2% in change total load growth from the data center side going into next year. And if you look at the sensitivities, it's perhaps $0.02 to $0.03 on earnings. Just want to make sure, you try to call it out very specifically. I want to make sure we're looking at that math correctly here on the year-on-year as well.
然後,如果我可以繼續-- 第二個問題也是一樣的。這都是相關的。您在這裡確定了一系列與數據中心的負載敏感性相關的數字。如果我猜對了,你說的是 12% 的數字。從廣義上講,從數據中心方面到明年,總負載增長將恢復到 2% 左右。如果你看一下敏感性,它的收益可能是 0.02 美元到 0.03 美元。只是想確保,您嘗試非常具體地指出它。我想確保我們每年也正確地看待這個數學。
Diane G. Leopold - Executive VP & COO
Diane G. Leopold - Executive VP & COO
Julien, this is Diane Leopold. I'll at least start and then maybe hand it off to Jim on some of the latter parts of your question. So related to timing on the data centers. So these were all transmission projects that we had planned long term anyway. We'd seen some of these constraints. We were already designing it. So accelerating it is really moving the capital in our plan up roughly 2 years. So to have the first set of projects in by 2026, the latter part of 2025. So that transmission spend, that was maybe more focused on '25, '26 and '27 would move into capital that would be '23, '24 and '25. And likewise, the next set of projects, and that's what's going to be filed in the next -- in the coming weeks. The next tranche of relieving the transmission constraint, also moving up in time, but instead of being online by 2026, is 2028. So you can just kind of move that on out.
朱利安,這是黛安·利奧波德。我至少會開始,然後可能會在您問題的後半部分將其交給 Jim。所以與數據中心的時間有關。所以這些都是我們長期計劃的傳輸項目。我們已經看到了其中一些限制。我們已經在設計它了。因此,加速它確實將我們計劃中的資金提前了大約 2 年。因此,到 2026 年,即 2025 年下半年,第一批項目將投入使用。因此,可能更側重於 25 年、26 年和 27 年的輸電支出將轉移到 23 年、24 年和 24 年的資本'25.同樣,下一組項目,這就是將在接下來的幾週內提交的內容。緩解傳輸限制的下一部分,也隨著時間的推移而上升,但不是在 2026 年之前上線,而是在 2028 年。所以你可以把它移到外面。
James R. Chapman - Executive VP & CFO
James R. Chapman - Executive VP & CFO
Julien, on your sales question, let me give you a couple of comments there. So look, first, you need to differentiate between demand and sales. Some of Bob's comments that we set out is on demand, increases in demand for data centers and in this potentially affected area. So we don't get paid on demand, of course. Typically, not fully utilized. It takes a long time for data centers to ramp-up, et cetera. But we get paid on sales. And for this customer class, like other high-usage customers, there's a lower margin. So what drops to the bottom line isn't necessarily the same as a sales number. It's still helpful. Meaning, the increased sales helps offset increases to the typical customer bill across the system, but it is lower margin based on its high usage. So impacts to the bottom line from these issues just described could be a little bit years out after this ramp period of plateauing, slower growth slightly in data center sales, offset by what Diane just mentioned, increases in the needed transmission spend, which is, of course, not lower margin. It's formula rate and rider. So it's hard to take a -- in summary, a straight line from changes in demand down to the bottom line for EPS sensitivities.
朱利安,關於你的銷售問題,讓我給你一些評論。所以看,首先,你需要區分需求和銷售。我們提出的 Bob 的一些評論是按需發表的,對數據中心的需求增加以及在這個可能受影響的區域。因此,我們當然不會按需獲得報酬。通常,未充分利用。數據中心需要很長時間才能加速發展,等等。但是我們從銷售中獲得報酬。對於這個客戶類別,與其他高使用率客戶一樣,利潤率較低。因此,降到底線的東西不一定與銷售數字相同。它仍然很有幫助。這意味著,增加的銷售額有助於抵消整個系統中典型客戶賬單的增加,但由於其高使用率,利潤率較低。因此,剛剛描述的這些問題對底線的影響可能會在這個平穩期之後的幾年後,數據中心銷售的增長略有放緩,被黛安剛才提到的抵消,所需的傳輸支出增加,也就是說,當然,利潤率不低。這是公式費率和騎手。因此,很難得出一條從需求變化到每股收益敏感性底線的直線。
Julien Patrick Dumoulin-Smith - Director and Head of the US Power, Utilities & Alternative Energy Equity Research
Julien Patrick Dumoulin-Smith - Director and Head of the US Power, Utilities & Alternative Energy Equity Research
Yes. Understood. That's why I asked. Excellent. And then just to clarify the last comment. You did a bunch of math. Super quick. With respect to the ability, some of the changes over the weekend here on the tax adjustments that you can do for the adjusted GAAP, just to clarify, you can deduct items against AMC with respect to bonus depreciation here, as you described. I think you said that. I just want to make it crystal clear.
是的。明白了。這就是我問的原因。出色的。然後只是為了澄清最後一條評論。你做了一堆數學。超級快。關於能力,週末對調整後的 GAAP 所做的稅收調整的一些變化,只是為了澄清,你可以在 AMC 中扣除與獎金折舊有關的項目,正如你所描述的。我想你是這麼說的。我只想說清楚。
James R. Chapman - Executive VP & CFO
James R. Chapman - Executive VP & CFO
Okay. Not bonus depreciation, but the tax depreciation makers. Whatever in your tax books for -- including for utility spend translates over as an adjustment in this GAAP -- adjusted GAAP pretax income calculation for AMT purposes.
好的。不是紅利折舊,而是稅收折舊製造者。無論您的稅簿中的什麼——包括公用事業支出,都轉化為這個 GAAP 中的調整——為 AMT 目的調整了 GAAP 稅前收入計算。
Operator
Operator
Our next question comes from Durgesh Chopra from Evercore ISI.
我們的下一個問題來自 Evercore ISI 的 Durgesh Chopra。
Durgesh Chopra - MD and Head of Power & Utilities Research
Durgesh Chopra - MD and Head of Power & Utilities Research
Jim, just a finer point on Julien's question. Just to be clear on the -- utilities aren't eligible for bonus depreciation, correct? I mean the related assets?
吉姆,就朱利安的問題提出了一個更好的觀點。只是要清楚-公用事業沒有資格獲得獎金折舊,對嗎?我是說相關資產?
James R. Chapman - Executive VP & CFO
James R. Chapman - Executive VP & CFO
Correct. From the last round of tax reform, that's correct.
正確的。從上一輪稅改來看,沒錯。
Durgesh Chopra - MD and Head of Power & Utilities Research
Durgesh Chopra - MD and Head of Power & Utilities Research
Right. So this is just -- when we talk about accelerated depreciation, this is just your normal makers type setup?
正確的。所以這只是 - 當我們談論加速折舊時,這只是你正常的製造商類型設置嗎?
James R. Chapman - Executive VP & CFO
James R. Chapman - Executive VP & CFO
Exactly right, Durgesh.
完全正確,Durgesh。
Durgesh Chopra - MD and Head of Power & Utilities Research
Durgesh Chopra - MD and Head of Power & Utilities Research
Okay. And just, Bob, quickly following up on the sort of the performance guarantee provision. I understand there's a lot of moving pieces. How does this impact the sort of the schedule of the project and your planned activities in the second half of the year and next year?
好的。只是,鮑勃,迅速跟進了那種性能保證條款。我知道有很多動人的部分。這對項目的日程安排以及您在下半年和明年的計劃活動有何影響?
Robert M. Blue - President, CEO & Chairman of the Board
Robert M. Blue - President, CEO & Chairman of the Board
We wouldn't expect it to have any effect on the schedule. We're -- again, we'll work quickly -- as quickly as we can with stakeholders. But this, as you know, is a guarantee that affects the -- applies to operation, not the construction of the facility. So it won't have an effect on the schedule.
我們不希望它對時間表產生任何影響。我們 - 再次,我們將盡快與利益相關者合作。但是,如您所知,這是一種影響——適用於運營的保證,而不是設施的建設。所以不會對日程產生影響。
Operator
Operator
Thank you. This does conclude this morning's conference call. You may disconnect your lines, and enjoy your day.
謝謝你。這確實結束了今天上午的電話會議。你可以斷開你的線路,享受你的一天。