Cushman & Wakefield Ltd (CWK) 2023 Q1 法說會逐字稿

Good afternoon, and welcome to the Cushman & Wakefield First Quarter 2023 Earnings Conference Call. (Operator Instructions) Please note this event is being recorded.

下午好，歡迎來到 Cushman & Wakefield 2023 年第一季度收益電話會議。 （操作員說明）請注意正在記錄此事件。

I would now like to run the conference over to Megan McGrath, Head of Investor Relations. Please go ahead.

我現在想把會議交給投資者關係主管 Megan McGrath。請繼續。

Thank you, and welcome to Cushman & Wakefield's First Quarter 2023 Earnings Conference Call. Earlier today, we issued a press release announcing our financial results for the period. This release, along with today's presentation, can be found on our Investor Relations website at ir.cushmanwakefield.com.

謝謝，歡迎來到 Cushman & Wakefield 2023 年第一季度收益電話會議。今天早些時候，我們發布了一份新聞稿，宣布了我們在此期間的財務業績。可以在我們的投資者關係網站 ir.cushmanwakefield.com 上找到此新聞稿以及今天的演示文稿。

Please turn to the page in our presentation labeled Cautionary Note on Forward-Looking Statements. Today's presentation contains forward-looking statements based on our current forecasts and estimates of future events. These statements should be considered estimates only, and actual results may differ materially. During today's call, we will refer to non-GAAP financial measures as outlined by SEC guidelines. Reconciliations of GAAP to non-GAAP financial measures, definitions of non-GAAP financial measures and other related information are found within the financial tables of our earnings release and the appendix of today's presentation.

請翻到我們演示文稿中標有“前瞻性陳述的注意事項”的頁面。今天的演示文稿包含基於我們當前對未來事件的預測和估計的前瞻性陳述。這些陳述僅應被視為估計，實際結果可能存在重大差異。在今天的電話會議中，我們將參考 SEC 指南中概述的非 GAAP 財務指標。 GAAP 與非 GAAP 財務措施的對賬、非 GAAP 財務措施的定義和其他相關信息可在我們的收益發布的財務表格和今天的演示文稿的附錄中找到。

Also, please note that throughout the presentation, comparisons and growth rates are to the comparable periods of 2022 and in local currency unless otherwise stated. For those of you following along with our presentation, we will begin on Page 4.

另請注意，除非另有說明，否則在整個演示文稿中，比較和增長率均與 2022 年的可比時期相比，並以當地貨幣計算。對於那些跟隨我們的演示文稿的人，我們將從第 4 頁開始。

And with that, I'd like to turn the call over to our CEO, John Forrester.

有了這個，我想把電話轉給我們的首席執行官約翰福雷斯特。

Thanks, Megan, and thank you to everybody joining our call. First, I want to thank all our employees around the world that continue to deliver outstanding service and value to our clients through such fluid times. The first quarter, as anticipated, experienced similar trends to the fourth quarter of 2022, with significantly lower transaction activity versus the prior year but continued strength in our Property and Facilities Management business.

謝謝，梅根，感謝大家加入我們的電話會議。首先，我要感謝我們在世界各地的所有員工，他們在如此動蕩的時期繼續為我們的客戶提供卓越的服務和價值。正如預期的那樣，第一季度經歷了與 2022 年第四季度相似的趨勢，交易活動明顯低於去年同期，但我們的物業和設施管理業務持續強勁。

Fee revenue of $1.5 billion and adjusted EBITDA of $61 million reflect the quarter's muted higher-margin transactional activity which we believe is currently sitting at or near trough levels. The current macro environment remains complex with elevated inflation and interest rates as well as recent banking stress all contributing in effect to recessionary conditions in commercial real estate. We expect the near-term outlook to remain challenging. However, an increasingly complicated economic and real estate environment is resulting in an ongoing flight to quality, and we believe that diversified global service providers of true scale like Cushman & Wakefield are best positioned to successfully navigate through economic cycles for both clients and talent.

15 億美元的手續費收入和 6100 萬美元的調整後 EBITDA 反映了本季度利潤率較高的交易活動低迷，我們認為目前處於或接近低谷水平。當前的宏觀環境依然複雜，通貨膨脹率和利率上升以及最近的銀行業壓力都導致商業房地產的衰退狀況。我們預計近期前景仍將充滿挑戰。然而，日益複雜的經濟和房地產環境正在導致對質量的持續追求，我們相信像 Cushman & Wakefield 這樣具有真正規模的多元化全球服務提供商最有能力為客戶和人才成功度過經濟周期。

Turning to Capital Markets. Capital continues to remain on the sidelines as banking industry volatility at the end of the quarter increased overall market uncertainty and further tightened lending standards. However, whilst in this constrained environment, we are observing meaningful appetite from our clients to deploy capital when market conditions improve, and we are meeting regularly with them to review portfolios, discuss financing options and help strategically plan for the recovery. To reiterate, it is a matter of when, not if deal volumes return, and we are allocating our resources to areas where deals are happening and finding new areas of opportunity, such as our recently created asset optimization practice, focused on delivering investors an integrated, tailored and strategic solution across underperforming assets.

轉向資本市場。由於季末銀行業的波動增加了整體市場的不確定性並進一步收緊了貸款標準，資本繼續保持觀望。然而，儘管在這種受限的環境中，我們觀察到客戶在市場狀況改善時配置資本的強烈意願，並且我們定期與他們會面以審查投資組合、討論融資方案並幫助制定戰略性的複蘇計劃。重申一下，這是一個時間問題，而不是交易量是否會恢復，我們正在將資源分配到交易發生的領域並尋找新的機會領域，例如我們最近創建的資產優化實踐，專注於為投資者提供綜合的，針對錶現不佳的資產量身定制的戰略解決方案。

On the leasing side, consistent with our expectations, total office leasing activity in the U.S. trended lower sequentially and year-over-year in the first quarter. Occupiers have grown increasingly cautious in their leasing decisions and are looking for cost-cutting opportunities as the odds of a recession remain elevated and as hybrid work strategies continue to filter through. Although we expect these headwinds to continue in the near term, we also think it's important to note that the impact of more aggressive hybrid work model started nearly 3 years ago. And as of today, there is still some 10.5 billion square feet of occupied office space globally. This supports our view that although the office sector faces challenges, it will remain a preeminent asset class into the future. It's critical to company functionality and its share size will continue to create opportunities for our firm to execute on transactions and advise our clients through the ongoing evolution. Notwithstanding this, other large asset classes will provide both growth and greater resilience.

在租賃方面，與我們的預期一致，美國第一季度的總辦公樓租賃活動環比和同比呈下降趨勢。由於經濟衰退的可能性仍然很高，而且混合工作策略繼續滲透，租戶在做出租賃決定時變得越來越謹慎，並正在尋找削減成本的機會。儘管我們預計這些逆風在短期內會持續下去，但我們也認為重要的是要注意，更積極的混合工作模式的影響在近 3 年前就開始了。截至今天，全球仍有約 105 億平方英尺的辦公空間。這支持了我們的觀點，即儘管寫字樓行業面臨挑戰，但它在未來仍將是卓越的資產類別。它對公司功能至關重要，其股份規模將繼續為我們公司創造機會，以執行交易並在不斷發展的過程中為我們的客戶提供建議。儘管如此，其他大型資產類別將提供增長和更大的彈性。

In the industrial leasing sector, industry fundamentals are strong with vacancies remaining near all-time lows and well below historical averages. The industrial sector, like office continues to see a flight to quality. During the first quarter, U.S. industrial tenants executed nearly 60 million square feet of deals in facilities built since 2020, representing just under half of the total. Net absorption in Q1 did slow relative to the outsized growth experienced over the previous 2 years. And although some moderation is expected, we anticipate the industrial sector to remain healthy, supported by long-term secular growth trends, such as e-commerce and consumer spending.

在工業租賃領域，行業基本面強勁，空置率仍接近歷史低位，遠低於歷史平均水平。工業部門，如辦公室，繼續看到質量的飛躍。第一季度，美國工業租戶在 2020 年以來建造的設施中執行了近 6000 萬平方英尺的交易，佔總數的不到一半。相對於前兩年經歷的超額增長，第一季度的淨吸納量確實有所放緩。儘管預計會有所放緩，但我們預計工業部門將在電子商務和消費者支出等長期長期增長趨勢的支持下保持健康。

Looking ahead, we continue to look for green shoots in both interest rate clarity and the macroeconomic environment. But at this point, we're not anticipating anything material this year. Regardless of the ultimate inflection point, the medium and long-term market opportunity for our business is substantial, and we are positioning ourselves to achieve incremental market share gains when transactional activity resumes.

展望未來，我們將繼續尋找利率清晰度和宏觀經濟環境的複蘇跡象。但在這一點上，我們預計今年不會有任何重大進展。無論最終拐點如何，我們業務的中長期市場機會都是巨大的，我們正在為自己定位，以便在交易活動恢復時實現增量市場份額收益。

Moving on to our property, facilities and project management business. This continues to perform well and demonstrate its resiliency in the current environment, most notably in facilities and project management which both achieved double-digit growth in the quarter. Our PM/FM business has benefited both from the build-out of our global outsourcing capabilities to take share in this fragmented market as well as our diversification into asset classes such as multifamily and property management and life sciences in project management. Our new business pipeline remains strong, highlighting the long-term positive secular growth trends in this business, even during a challenging time in the transactional market.

繼續我們的財產、設施和項目管理業務。這繼續表現良好，並證明其在當前環境中的彈性，最顯著的是在設施和項目管理方面，這兩個方面在本季度都實現了兩位數的增長。我們的 PM/FM 業務既受益於我們全球外包能力的增強以在這個分散的市場中佔有一席之地，也受益於我們向資產類別的多元化，例如項目管理中的多戶家庭和物業管理以及生命科學。我們的新業務渠道依然強勁，即使在交易市場充滿挑戰的時期，也凸顯了該業務長期積極的長期增長趨勢。

In summary, there is no doubt that this is a challenging operating environment for all participants in commercial real estate. However, our global capabilities, deep expertise and operational efficiency will continue to steer us through the near-term headwinds and more importantly, allow us to emerge with strength and improved market positioning.

綜上所述，毫無疑問，對於商業地產的所有參與者來說，這是一個充滿挑戰的經營環境。然而，我們的全球能力、深厚的專業知識和運營效率將繼續引導我們度過近期的逆風，更重要的是，使我們能夠以實力和更好的市場定位脫穎而出。

Now I'd like to turn the call over to Neil to discuss in more detail our financial performance. Neil?

現在我想把電話轉給尼爾，更詳細地討論我們的財務業績。尼爾？

Thank you, John, and good afternoon, everyone. For the first quarter, fee revenue of $1.5 billion declined 10% versus prior year. Adjusted EBITDA of $61 million was down 71% versus a record first quarter 2022. And adjusted earnings per share for the quarter was a loss of $0.04, a decrease of $0.52 versus prior year. Our revenue performance in the first quarter reflected continued weakness in capital markets, which were down 50%, similar to the decline experienced in the fourth quarter of 2022.

謝謝約翰，大家下午好。第一季度，手續費收入為 15 億美元，同比下降 10%。調整後的 EBITDA 為 6100 萬美元，與創紀錄的 2022 年第一季度相比下降了 71%。本季度調整後的每股收益虧損 0.04 美元，比上年同期減少 0.52 美元。我們第一季度的收入表現反映了資本市場的持續疲軟，下降了 50%，與 2022 年第四季度的下降情況相似。

Leasing revenue declined 19% versus the prior year. This decline was against a strong first quarter of 2022 when leasing revenue was up 58% versus first quarter of 2021. Office leasing activity declined as occupiers continue to delay decision-making and reduce CapEx spend. The industrial sector performed relatively well, but was lower against the challenging prior year comparison. Performance in our PM/FM service offering was strong with PM/FM in total, up 8%, especially in our Facilities Management and Project Management businesses. Valuation and other declined 12% in the quarter as the slowdown in transactions resulted in lower valuation activity.

租賃收入較上年下降 19%。這一下降與 2022 年第一季度的強勁表現形成鮮明對比，當時租賃收入比 2021 年第一季度增長了 58%。由於租戶繼續推遲決策並減少資本支出，辦公室租賃活動有所下降。工業部門表現相對較好，但與具有挑戰性的前一年相比有所下降。我們的 PM/FM 服務產品表現強勁，PM/FM 總體增長 8%，尤其是在我們的設施管理和項目管理業務方面。由於交易放緩導致估值活動減少，估值和其他因素在本季度下降了 12%。

The decline in adjusted EBITDA was principally driven by 3 main components. First, the most significant component was the decline in high-margin transactional brokerage business as well as our Greystone joint venture, which experienced lower multifamily lending volumes. Second, the operating expenses in the quarter were higher year-over-year due to inflation and prior year investment ramp from a high-growth environment of early 2022. We are focused on our cost initiatives and as we move through the balance of the year, we expect these inflation and investment impacts to moderate and to be fully offset by our cost actions. Lastly, we experienced roughly $10 million in discrete headwinds in the quarter, primarily from the nonrecurrence of government subsidies in our APAC business versus the prior year as well as foreign currency headwinds.

調整後 EBITDA 的下降主要由 3 個主要部分驅動。首先，最重要的組成部分是高利潤交易經紀業務以及我們的 Greystone 合資企業的下降，後者經歷了較低的多戶貸款量。其次，由於通貨膨脹和 2022 年初的高增長環境導致上一年的投資增加，本季度的運營支出同比增加。我們專注於我們的成本計劃，並在今年餘下時間進行，我們預計這些通貨膨脹和投資影響會緩和，並被我們的成本行動完全抵消。最後，我們在本季度經歷了大約 1000 萬美元的離散逆風，主要是由於我們亞太地區業務與上一年相比不再出現政府補貼以及外匯逆風。

In terms of our cost-saving plans, we achieved approximately $21 million of cost savings in the first quarter and are currently on track to achieve the full $90 million cost saving target in 2023. Given the current environment, we are further tightening our spending on discretionary costs and are actioning additional items that will allow us to operate more efficiently.

就我們的成本節約計劃而言，我們在第一季度實現了約 2100 萬美元的成本節約，目前有望在 2023 年實現全部 9000 萬美元的成本節約目標。鑑於目前的環境，我們正在進一步收緊支出可自由支配的成本，並正在採取其他措施，使我們能夠更有效地運營。

Turning to our segment results for the quarter. In the Americas, we experienced declines in brokerage across all asset types due to the higher interest rate environment and macroeconomic headwinds. These declines were most prominent in the office sector. Declines in brokerage were partially offset by continued resiliency in PM/FM, most notably in facilities and project management. The adjusted EBITDA decline was principally driven by the lower brokerage activity, lower contribution from Greystone and the impact of prior year cost inflation and investment in the business. EMEA and APAC both saw similar declines in brokerage as in the Americas, while our PM/FM business in the APAC segment continued to perform well, specifically in facilities and project management. The lower fee revenue in brokerage in each segment was the primary driver of the decline in adjusted EBITDA. Additionally, in APAC, the nonrecurrence of the government subsidies received in the prior year also contributed to the year-over-year decline.

轉向我們本季度的分部業績。在美洲，由於較高的利率環境和宏觀經濟逆風，我們所有資產類型的經紀業務均出現下滑。這些下降在寫字樓領域最為突出。經紀業務的下降部分被 PM/FM 的持續彈性所抵消，尤其是在設施和項目管理方面。調整後的 EBITDA 下降主要是由於經紀活動減少、Greystone 的貢獻減少以及前一年成本通脹和業務投資的影響。 EMEA 和亞太地區的經紀業務均出現與美洲類似的下滑，而我們在亞太地區的 PM/FM 業務繼續表現良好，特別是在設施和項目管理方面。每個細分市場的經紀費用收入較低是調整後 EBITDA 下降的主要原因。此外，在亞太地區，上一年收到的政府補貼的非經常性也導致了同比下降。

Moving to our balance sheet and cash flow. We ended the first quarter with an operating cash outflow of $222 million. This level is in line with historical first quarter working capital trends and reflects typical seasonal patterns in our business. Given the seasonality, our full year cash flow performance will depend highly on the size and timing of any market recovery in the latter half of the year. As a part of our efforts to improve efficiency and performance, our teams are focused on driving cash flow improvements through disciplined working capital management.

轉向我們的資產負債表和現金流量。第一季度結束時，我們的經營現金流出為 2.22 億美元。這一水平符合第一季度營運資金的歷史趨勢，反映了我們業務中典型的季節性模式。鑑於季節性，我們的全年現金流量表現將在很大程度上取決於下半年任何市場復甦的規模和時間。作為我們提高效率和績效努力的一部分，我們的團隊專注於通過嚴格的營運資本管理來推動現金流的改善。

From a capital allocation standpoint, we are currently prioritizing spend in 3 areas: cash to achieve our cost takeout targets, focused talent acquisition in high-growth markets and high-growth sectors and investment in our services businesses, where we continue to see significant long-term market opportunity. Overall, our financial position remains strong with $1.6 billion of liquidity, consisting of cash on hand of $460 million and availability on our revolving credit facility of $1.1 billion. We had no outstanding borrowings on our revolver and net leverage was 3.7x at the end of the first quarter. Our debt maturities are long dated, and our debt profile is more than 70% fixed on a net basis.

從資本配置的角度來看，我們目前優先考慮 3 個領域的支出：現金以實現我們的成本削減目標，專注於高增長市場和高增長行業的人才收購，以及對我們服務業務的投資，我們繼續看到很長一段時間- 長期市場機會。總體而言，我們的財務狀況依然強勁，擁有 16 億美元的流動資金，包括手頭現金 4.6 億美元和可用的循環信貸額度 11 億美元。我們的循環貸款沒有未償還的借款，第一季度末的淨槓桿率為 3.7 倍。我們的債務期限很長，我們的債務狀況超過 70% 是固定在淨額基礎上的。

Finally, moving to our outlook. The macroeconomic environment remains highly uncertain. Market participants continue to await further clarity on both interest rates and the economic outlook, challenging both leasing and capital markets activity. Given these factors, we anticipate the following: Our recurring revenue PM/FM business is expected to provide continued stability in this environment, generating low to mid-single-digit revenue growth in 2023. Although first quarter results came in above this expectation, the growth rate of existing business will naturally normalize as we lap the large new business wins in the prior year.

最後，轉向我們的展望。宏觀經濟環境仍然高度不確定。市場參與者繼續等待利率和經濟前景進一步明朗，這對租賃和資本市場活動構成挑戰。鑑於這些因素，我們預計如下：我們的經常性收入 PM/FM 業務預計將在這種環境下提供持續的穩定性，在 2023 年產生中低個位數的收入增長。儘管第一季度的業績超出了這一預期，但隨著我們在前一年贏得大量新業務，現有業務的增長率自然會正常化。

In addition, beginning in the second quarter of this year, a change in the gross contract reimbursables of one of our facility services contracts will result in lower fee revenue of about $19 million on an annualized basis with no impact on total revenue or adjusted EBITDA. In brokerage, consistent with our previous comments, we expect trends in the second quarter of 2023 to resemble the previous 2 quarters as we've seen no material shift in the markets. Although we expect brokerage to remain under pressure in 2023, we are maintaining a strong position to benefit from a market recovery in 2024.

此外，從今年第二季度開始，我們其中一項設施服務合同的總合同可償還費用發生變化，這將導致按年計算的費用收入減少約 1900 萬美元，而不會對總收入或調整後的 EBITDA 產生影響。在經紀業務方面，與我們之前的評論一致，我們預計 2023 年第二季度的趨勢將與前兩個季度相似，因為我們沒有看到市場發生重大變化。儘管我們預計經紀業務在 2023 年仍將面臨壓力，但我們仍保持強勢地位，以從 2024 年的市場復甦中受益。

As a result of these expectations, we expect full year adjusted EBITDA margins to be in the range of 9% to 10%, which incorporates our view of a mild recession in 2023, with no significant recovery in brokerage this year. As macroeconomic trends improve and the brokerage business experiences a more meaningful recovery, we expect to see our full year margins trend back upwards both through revenue growth and cost efficiencies. We now anticipate an adjusted effective tax rate of 28% for the year.

由於這些預期，我們預計全年調整後的 EBITDA 利潤率將在 9% 至 10% 之間，這反映了我們對 2023 年溫和衰退的看法，而今年經紀業務不會出現顯著復甦。隨著宏觀經濟趨勢的改善和經紀業務經歷更有意義的複蘇，我們預計我們的全年利潤率將通過收入增長和成本效率回升。我們現在預計今年調整後的有效稅率為 28%。

That concludes the financial review. With that, I'll turn the call back to John.

財務審查到此結束。有了這個，我會把電話轉回給約翰。

Thanks, Neil. You've likely seen the announcement we made this evening about my decision to retire from Cushman & Wakefield after over 35 years of the company. It's been a true honor to lead the business, and I'm incredibly proud of what we've all built and accomplished together. This really is a special place. We saw many of the most talented people in our industry and have thoroughly enjoyed working with all these special people, both as colleagues and as friends.

謝謝，尼爾。您可能已經看到我們今晚發布的公告，內容是我決定在 Cushman & Wakefield 工作超過 35 年後從 Cushman & Wakefield 退休。能夠領導這項業務真是我的榮幸，我為我們共同建立和取得的成就感到無比自豪。這真的是一個特別的地方。我們看到了我們行業中許多最有才華的人，並且非常喜歡與所有這些特殊的人一起工作，無論是作為同事還是朋友。

But over the past months, as myself and the management team have contemplated the company's next stage evolution and growth strategy. It became clear to me that the person making the decisions in the CEO seat today must be the person guiding and accountable for those strategies far into the future. And as I think about Cushman & Wakefield's bright future, I could not be leaving the company in better hands than with Michelle MacKay as CEO.

但在過去幾個月裡，我和管理團隊一直在思考公司下一階段的發展和增長戰略。我很清楚，今天在 CEO 席位上做出決定的人必須是那些在遙遠的未來指導和負責這些戰略的人。當我想到 Cushman & Wakefield 的光明未來時，我離開公司的最佳方式莫過於米歇爾麥凱擔任首席執行官。

Michelle and I have worked together since our IPO in 2018, when she became a Board member more closely over recent years as Michelle agreed to become our Chief Operating Officer. I'm confident that her long experience in commercial real estate and her commitment to the values and unique culture of Cushman & Wakefield will shepherd the company forward, drive continued growth and shareholder value at the company. And now I'll turn it over to Michelle.

自 2018 年首次公開募股以來，米歇爾和我一直在一起工作，隨著米歇爾同意成為我們的首席運營官，近年來她成為董事會成員的關係更加密切。我相信，她在商業房地產領域的長期經驗以及她對 Cushman & Wakefield 的價值觀和獨特文化的承諾將引領公司向前發展，推動公司的持續增長和股東價值。現在我將把它交給米歇爾。

Thank you. And John, I want to be the first person to personally thank you for your leadership and collaboration over the past several years. The impact that you've made on the business is large but the impact that you made on the careers and lives of an untold number of people will inevitably be part of your legacy.

謝謝。約翰，我想成為第一個親自感謝你在過去幾年中的領導和合作的人。你對企業的影響是巨大的，但你對無數人的職業和生活的影響將不可避免地成為你遺產的一部分。

I'm excited to take on the role of CEO of Cushman & Wakefield in July. So let's talk about the future. I don't require time to integrate into Cushman & Wakefield. As you probably know, I joined the Board about 5 years ago, right after the company went public and have been inside the company for more than 3 years. I have the great fortune of stepping on to the foundation that many dedicated and talented people have built. The foundation is strong and will allow me the ability to reassess and reconfirm what is the core business, ensuring that we're spending our time, our money and our energy where it makes sense today and more importantly, for the future. This assessment will, of course, lead to an evaluation of our growth model for the future and aligning our capital allocation model and balance sheet accordingly. I expect a continued focus on the high-growth and resilient services business as part of this plan with brokerage as a key driver. I look forward to speaking with all of you as we map out the future of Cushman & Wakefield.

我很高興在 7 月擔任 Cushman & Wakefield 的首席執行官。那麼讓我們談談未來吧。我不需要時間融入 Cushman & Wakefield。你可能知道，我大約在 5 年前加入董事會，當時公司剛剛上市，並且在公司工作了 3 年多。我有幸踏上了很多敬業和有才華的人建立的基礎。堅實的基礎將使我能夠重新評估和確認什麼是核心業務，確保我們將時間、金錢和精力花在今天有意義的地方，更重要的是，為了未來。當然，這一評估將導致對我們未來增長模式的評估，並相應地調整我們的資本配置模型和資產負債表。作為該計劃的一部分，我預計將繼續關注高增長和有彈性的服務業務，而經紀業務將成為主要推動力。在我們規劃 Cushman & Wakefield 的未來時，我期待著與大家交談。

And now I'll turn the call back to the operator, and we'll be happy to take your questions.

現在我會將電話轉回給接線員，我們很樂意回答您的問題。

(Operator Instructions) Your first question comes from Anthony Paolone from JPMorgan.

（操作員說明）您的第一個問題來自摩根大通的 Anthony Paolone。

Thank you. First, best wishes, John, and congratulations, Michelle. My first question, that was going to be a bit more of Monday and I want to ask a bit about expenses. Neil, the $90 million that you are targeting, I think you mentioned actioning some additional items as well. Is that part of the $90 million? Or is there more coming beyond that? I guess I was a little confused by the comment.

謝謝。首先，向約翰致以最良好的祝愿，並祝賀米歇爾。我的第一個問題，那將是周一的更多時間，我想問一些關於費用的問題。尼爾，你的目標是 9000 萬美元，我想你也提到了一些額外的項目。那是9000萬美元的一部分嗎？還是有更多的事情發生？我想我對評論有點困惑。

Yes, sure, Tony. Our guidance assumes the full $90 million takeout in the guidance we've provided. We are currently evaluating additional cost measures. At this point, I can't quantify them. So the guidance does not contemplate any additional cost measures. Given we are already halfway through the year, the impact on in -- will be fairly muted. But certainly, we'll provide run rate savings and efficiency as we move into next year.

是的，當然，托尼。我們的指導假設在我們提供的指導中全部扣除 9000 萬美元。我們目前正在評估額外的成本措施。在這一點上，我無法量化它們。因此，該指南沒有考慮任何額外的成本措施。鑑於今年已經過半，對中的影響將相當小。但可以肯定的是，隨著我們進入明年，我們將提供運行率節省和效率。

Okay. And then in the margin guidance that you provided, so it sounds like the $90 million is in there. But can you maybe just talk to -- I don't know that you gave a guidance number for margins last quarter, I can't recall. But what's kind of really changed in terms of your thinking and to get to that 9% to 10% margin? I know the brokerage business is more difficult right now. But just what else may be changed in the calculus there?

好的。然後在您提供的保證金指導中，聽起來好像有 9000 萬美元。但是你能不能談談 - 我不知道你上個季度給出了利潤率的指導數字，我不記得了。但是，在您的想法和達到 9% 到 10% 的利潤率方面，真正發生了什麼變化？我知道現在經紀業務比較困難。但是那裡的微積分還有什麼可以改變的呢？

Yes. I think, Tony, our guidance is very consistent with what we gave last quarter. The only change is we believe that the recovery in brokerage will be slightly delayed, probably delayed by about a quarter. So in our guidance, we are not assuming a meaningful recovery in brokerage through the year. Naturally, we do have easier comps as we move into, especially in the fourth quarter. So the year-over-year clients will be a lot better. But as we look at the second quarter, we're sort of assuming the brokerage will be at a similar level to the first quarter.

是的。我認為，托尼，我們的指導與我們上個季度給出的指導非常一致。唯一的變化是我們認為券商的複蘇將略有延遲，可能延遲四分之一左右。因此，在我們的指導中，我們並未假設經紀業務在今年會出現有意義的複蘇。自然地，隨著我們的進入，我們確實有更容易的比賽，尤其是在第四節。因此，同比客戶會好很多。但當我們看第二季度時，我們有點假設經紀業務將處於與第一季度相似的水平。

Okay. And then just last one. Any comments you can provide on just thinking about CapEx for the year? And any thoughts on free cash flow conversion or anything we should be thinking about there as we think about EBITDA slowing down?

好的。然後就是最後一個。關於今年的資本支出，您有什麼意見可以提供嗎？關於自由現金流轉換的任何想法，或者我們在考慮 EBITDA 放緩時應該考慮的任何事情？

No, our free cash flow that we saw in the first quarter was very consistent with normal seasonality in the business. As you well know, as we move through the year, certainly, the cash outflow improves dramatically through the back half of the year. We are still -- we still maintain our target of a free cash flow conversion of 20% to 30%. But naturally, with brokerage staying muted through the year, we do not expect to see that this year. We'll see that in the medium term, certainly, as we see brokerage recover through the back half of the year. A lot will depend on how quickly brokerage recovers. But generally, the trends we expect are very consistent with what we've seen historically.

不，我們在第一季度看到的自由現金流與業務的正常季節性非常一致。眾所周知，隨著我們度過這一年，當然，下半年的現金流出量會急劇增加。我們仍然 - 我們仍然保持 20% 到 30% 的自由現金流轉換目標。但自然而然，由於經紀業務全年保持低調，我們預計今年不會出現這種情況。當然，我們會在中期看到這一點，因為我們會看到經紀業務在今年下半年復蘇。很大程度上取決於經紀業務恢復的速度。但總的來說，我們預期的趨勢與我們在歷史上看到的趨勢非常一致。

Your next question comes from Stephen Sheldon from William Blair. Please go ahead.

你的下一個問題來自 William Blair 的 Stephen Sheldon。請繼續。

You have Matt Filek on for Stephen Sheldon. To start here, in the event the return to office movement starts to lose some traction, do you see that dampening demand for things like janitorial services and the PM/FM segment overall?

你有 Matt Filek 代替 Stephen Sheldon。從這裡開始，如果重返辦公室運動開始失去一些吸引力，您是否看到對清潔服務和整體 PM/FM 細分市場的需求減弱？

Thanks for the question. It's a very good question. Ultimately, we believe at the moment, in our forward forecast that the pretty strong recessionary decision making by clients out there is driving the main performance in offices in particular. So the hybrid and return to work trends we've seen to an extent, priced into the market as we see it.

謝謝你的問題。這是一個很好的問題。最終，我們目前相信，在我們的前瞻性預測中，客戶做出的相當強勁的經濟衰退決策正在推動辦公室的主要業績。因此，我們在一定程度上看到了混合和重返工作的趨勢，正如我們所看到的那樣，市場已經定價。

The additional services other than brokerage project management, facilities management and services, of course, go along with volume, but again, what I would say is that the office market is a massive sector. I think the relative size of that sector versus others is misplaced as we talk about the headwinds sitting within office. We are seeing very strong growth in our outsourcing business at this point. That growth, a lot of it comes from winning new office contracts. So I still see Cushman & Wakefield, in companies like Cushman & Wakefield actually growing our office exposure year-on-year, quarter-on-quarter going forward.

經紀項目管理、設施管理和服務以外的其他服務當然會隨著數量的增加而增加，但我要說的是，寫字樓市場是一個龐大的行業。當我們談論辦公室內的逆風時，我認為該部門與其他部門的相對規模是錯誤的。目前，我們的外包業務增長非常強勁。這種增長，其中很大一部分來自贏得新的辦公室合同。因此，我仍然看到 Cushman & Wakefield，在像 Cushman & Wakefield 這樣的公司中，我們的辦公室曝光率逐年逐年增長。

Even with the margins, any individual occupier might be just pulling a little bit back on the reins of how much space they have within their portfolio. That rationale -- that rationalization is ongoing and has been now for, as I said in the prepared remarks, maybe 3 years.

即使有利潤，任何個人租戶也可能只是稍微控制一下他們在投資組合中擁有多少空間。這個理由——合理化正在進行中，正如我在準備好的發言中所說，現在已經持續了 3 年。

Got it. That's helpful color. And then somewhat as a follow-up on office leasing. Are you still seeing that flight to quality narrative hold up where tenants are looking to lease higher quality office space to encourage their employees to come back in or kind of starting to shift their focus to reducing cost given the challenging macro environment that persists?

知道了。這是有用的顏色。然後作為辦公室租賃的後續行動。考慮到持續存在的具有挑戰性的宏觀環境，租戶希望租用更高質量的辦公空間以鼓勵他們的員工回來，或者開始將注意力轉移到降低成本上，您是否仍然看到這種對質量的追求？

Both of your questions or renovations there actually are both active because what we are seeing is that those deals that are happening to in gateway cities around the world where we are very large market shares. The deals we're seeing are in Class A, best-in-class ESG qualified space. And then what you see is ultimately then the rest of the market where we're not as exposed having tougher times. So I think both of those components within your question/observation are fair at this point.

你的問題或那裡的裝修實際上都是活躍的，因為我們看到的是，這些交易發生在我們擁有非常大市場份額的世界各地的門戶城市。我們看到的交易屬於 A 類、一流的 ESG 合格空間。然後你看到的最終是市場的其餘部分，在這些市場中，我們沒有經歷過更艱難的時期。所以我認為你的問題/觀察中的這兩個組成部分在這一點上都是公平的。

(Operator Instructions) Your next question comes from Ronald Kamdem from Morgan Stanley.

（操作員說明）你的下一個問題來自摩根士丹利的 Ronald Kamdem。

Great. Congrats, John and Michelle. Just a quick one on the EBITDA guidance, which I think you sort of quantified this quarter. Clearly, there's -- if you did sort of 4% in 1Q, just trying to get a little bit more of color of what assumptions are going into it to get to that 9% to 10% by the end of the year. So I understand brokerage is saying are you depressed, but what are some of the other pieces to get you to that 9% for that 9% to 10% for the full year?

偉大的。恭喜，約翰和米歇爾。只是關於 EBITDA 指導的快速介紹，我認為您在本季度對它進行了量化。顯然，如果你在 1Q 做了 4%，只是想更多地了解其中的假設，以便在年底前達到 9% 到 10%。所以我知道經紀公司在說你是否感到沮喪，但還有哪些其他因素可以讓你在全年的 9% 到 10% 中達到 9%？

Yes, sure, Ronald. Look, as we look at that, as you know, in the business, it's very seasonal. The first quarter is by far our smallest quarter, so just the base revenue in the first quarter is a lot less than the rest of the year. And so as we contemplate the year, we feel pretty good about getting to that 9% to 10% margin. You will naturally see the margin improve as the base business, the natural business in the quarter increases all the way through to the fourth quarter where we always see our highest margins and the most revenue.

是的，當然，羅納德。看，正如你所知，在我們看來，在這個行業中，它是非常季節性的。第一季度是迄今為止我們最小的季度，因此僅第一季度的基本收入就比今年剩餘時間少很多。因此，當我們回顧這一年時，我們對達到 9% 到 10% 的利潤率感到非常滿意。你自然會看到利潤率隨著基礎業務的提高而增加，本季度的自然業務一直增長到第四季度，我們總是看到我們的最高利潤率和最多的收入。

The only difference this year, I think, is that we will have more of our earnings in the back half of the year than the front of the year certainly than last year where we had record growth in the first half of the year. So slightly different but I'm pretty consistent with historical trends in the industry.

我認為，今年唯一的不同是，我們下半年的收入肯定會比上半年多，而去年上半年的增長創歷史新高。略有不同，但我與行業的歷史趨勢非常一致。

And just to reiterate one point, ultimately, whilst the revenue grows quarter-on-quarter through the year actually proportionately, a lot of the cost shows up in Q1, and that's why margins will always be more muted at this point with confidence that they will grow as the year moves through.

重申一點，最終，雖然收入實際上按比例按比例增長，但很多成本出現在第一季度，這就是為什麼利潤率在這一點上總是會更加低迷，因為他們有信心他們將隨著時間的流逝而增長。

Great. And then my second question, obviously, going to the cash flow statement, I fully appreciate the seasonality in 1Q, of course, but maybe some comments on what that EBITDA to cash conversion looks like as you're going through the year would be helpful.

偉大的。然後是我的第二個問題，很明顯，關於現金流量表，我當然完全理解第一季度的季節性，但也許對你經歷這一年的 EBITDA 到現金轉換的一些評論會有所幫助.

Yes, sure. With the cash outflow in the first half of the year, it's very difficult to calculate what a cash conversion ratio is. I will tell you we highly focused on free cash flow. We were very pleased in the first quarter of all the work we're doing around working capital. We saw a nice improvement in our receivables. That, of course, is muted by the decline in brokerage, but certainly seeing some good trends there in our working capital. As we move through the year, once again, the cash flow, as I mentioned earlier, the cash flow conversion will not be in that 20% to 30% range. But certainly, in the medium run, this brokerage comes back, that's where we expect to be.

是的，當然。隨著上半年的現金流出，很難計算什麼是現金轉化率。我會告訴你我們高度關注自由現金流。我們對第一季度圍繞營運資金所做的所有工作感到非常滿意。我們看到應收賬款有了很好的改善。當然，這因經紀業務的下降而減弱，但肯定會在我們的營運資金中看到一些良好的趨勢。正如我之前提到的，隨著這一年的推移，現金流再次出現，現金流轉換不會在 20% 到 30% 的範圍內。但可以肯定的是，從中期來看，這家經紀公司會回歸，這正是我們所期望的。

(Operator Instructions) Your next question comes from Michael Griffin from Citi.

（操作員說明）你的下一個問題來自花旗銀行的邁克爾格里芬。

Congrats again, John. Pleasure working with you and Michelle, congrats to you as well. Maybe taking back on Ron's question there just on more of a leverage question. I'm curious if you do annualize that run rate, you get to a pretty elevated leverage level. Talk about seasonality in the back half of the year, that makes pretty sense. If I'm putting a number around it, right? So it's 3.7x last 12 months, what do you think that number is a good run rate for going forward? And any commentary around that?

再次恭喜，約翰。很高興與你和米歇爾一起工作，也祝賀你。也許在更多的槓桿問題上收回羅恩的問題。我很好奇，如果你將運行率按年計算，你就會達到相當高的槓桿水平。談論下半年的季節性，這很有道理。如果我在它周圍加上一個數字，對嗎？所以它是過去 12 個月的 3.7 倍，你認為這個數字對於未來來說是一個很好的運行率嗎？對此有何評論？

Sure. With the lower EBITDA, we expect leverage to be in the low 4s by the end of the year, probably in that 4.1x to 4.2x range. But the net will then once again come down as EBITDA grows and as brokerage comes back. We feel pretty comfortable. Clearly, leverage is higher than we'd like it to be. Our goal is always to be in that 2x to 3x. But naturally, as we move through the cycle, we'll see that leverage go up. But feel very good, feel certainly good about our opportunities. As you know, we amended and extended $1 billion of our term loan B, which we pushed out to 2030. So I feel good about our maturities and feel very good about our liquidity. So while leverage is a little higher than we'd like, feel like the balance sheet is in very good shape.

當然。由於 EBITDA 較低，我們預計到今年年底槓桿率將處於 4s 的低位，可能在 4.1 倍至 4.2 倍的範圍內。但隨著 EBITDA 的增長和經紀業務的回歸，淨利潤將再次下降。我們感覺很舒服。顯然，槓桿比我們希望的要高。我們的目標始終是 2 到 3 倍。但自然而然地，當我們經歷這個週期時，我們會看到槓桿率上升。但是感覺很好，對我們的機會肯定感覺很好。如你所知，我們修改並延長了 10 億美元的定期貸款 B，我們將其推遲到 2030 年。因此，我對我們的到期期限和流動性感到非常滿意。因此，雖然槓桿比我們想要的要高一點，但感覺資產負債表的狀況非常好。

And Neil, just a reminder on that debt, it was SOFR plus 375, right?

尼爾，提醒一下那筆債務，是 SOFR 加上 375，對吧？

No SOFR plus 325.

沒有 SOFR 加上 325。

Got you. Okay. That's helpful. And then maybe just one on the transition. It looks like John will stay on as CEO until the end of June, an adviser until the end of the year. I'm just curious, John, or maybe Michelle, if you can add any comments around talks of the Board's discussion. Obviously, Michelle, in your prepared remarks, you said, let's talk about the future. It seems like you're there here. But I'm just curious if there were any conversations about strategic alternatives, kind of stuff like that and how this came to be the right resolution for shareholders.

明白了好的。這很有幫助。然後可能只有一個關於過渡。看來 John 將繼續擔任 CEO 到 6 月底，擔任顧問到年底。 John，或者 Michelle，我很好奇你是否可以對董事會的討論發表任何評論。顯然，米歇爾，在你準備好的發言中，你說，讓我們談談未來。好像你在這裡。但我很好奇是否有任何關於戰略選擇的對話，諸如此類的事情，以及這如何成為股東的正確解決方案。

It's Michelle. I will answer. Thank you for your question. I think as John said, in the conversations that we've been having about the future of the company, we realized that we probably needed to pull secession forward, a little bit faster than we initially anticipated. And I can't share any specific thoughts with you today, but we're going to be focused on mapping out the next 10 years of the company and that so...

是米歇爾。我會回答。謝謝你的問題。我認為正如 John 所說，在我們關於公司未來的對話中，我們意識到我們可能需要推動分離，比我們最初預期的要快一點。我今天無法與您分享任何具體想法，但我們將專注於規劃公司未來 10 年的規劃，所以......

Great. And then just a clarification for John. When you took over at the beginning of '22, I think from the gentleman who is the current Chairman, was the plan always more of an interim (inaudible)? I mean, you've been there for 35 years. That's a fantastic career. But was it always kind of your thought that you weren't going to be in the role for 5 or 10 years?

偉大的。然後只是對 John 的澄清。當你在 22 年初接任時，我想從現任主席那位先生看來，該計劃是否總是更像是一個臨時的（聽不清）？我的意思是，你已經在那里工作了 35 年。那是一個了不起的職業。但是你是否一直認為你不會在 5 年或 10 年內擔任這個角色？

I've always -- I've been very consistent in discussing this with anybody who's prepared to listen to me. But ultimately, leaders who take big decisions need to be around to see those decisions out in the accountable for, but also contemporary leadership is important in a fast-moving market in very dynamic industries such as the real estate services industry. And that really just gives color to the fact that the organization is very diligent and serious about its succession planning.

我一直——我一直非常一致地與任何願意聽我講話的人討論這個問題。但歸根結底，做出重大決策的領導者需要在負責的範圍內看到這些決策，而且在房地產服務行業等充滿活力的行業中，當代領導力在快速變化的市場中也很重要。這真的只是為該組織對其繼任計劃非常勤奮和認真這一事實增光添彩。

Since we went public and Michelle joined our Board, this day-to-day is always going -- is always going to occur at some point. And I'd just reiterate what Michelle said. The timing is really based on the fact that we don't already -- the majority of work that is required to push this company through in very solid positive sense, the recession that we are in as an industry and actually decisions now are about future direction and growth of the company. And to an extent, it's a very -- we believe this is a great industry to be in. The secular growth trends that we see, our ability to drive many of those trends and grow accordingly means that Michelle is taking over at a time where that forward focus is very important in how we operate as a company.

自從我們上市並且 Michelle 加入我們的董事會以來，這種日常總是在進行 - 總是會在某個時候發生。我只想重申米歇爾所說的話。時機實際上是基於這樣一個事實，即我們還沒有——以非常堅實的積極意義推動這家公司度過難關所需的大部分工作，我們作為一個行業所處的衰退，實際上現在的決定是關於未來的公司的方向和成長。在某種程度上，這是一個非常 - 我們相信這是一個偉大的行業。我們看到的長期增長趨勢，我們推動其中許多趨勢並相應增長的能力意味著米歇爾正在接管這種前瞻性的關注對於我們作為一家公司的運營方式非常重要。

Your next question comes from Patrick O'Shaughnessy from Raymond James.

你的下一個問題來自 Raymond James 的 Patrick O'Shaughnessy。

Can you provide an update on the status of your partnership with WeWork? Obviously, it's no mystery that WeWork has been struggling. So kind of curious about how the effort is going of you partnering with them.

您能否提供有關您與 WeWork 合作關係的最新情況？顯然，WeWork 一直在苦苦掙扎並不神秘。很好奇你與他們合作的努力是如何進行的。

This is John. I'll take that. There's a slight disconnect actually as to how we work with WeWork and the issues that are -- that you mentioned there. Actually, our relationship with WeWork has been highly positive. Really fact focused into the 2 strategic areas that we made our investment on. One was to partner with WeWork in major client pursuit that is ongoing and has been successful, and we believe will continue to be successful. And secondly, where we have become a key supplier and therefore, clients of the WeWork in helping them with running the real estate services within that portfolio. So those 2 aspects are ongoing, remain healthy, and that's how we think about our relationship with.

這是約翰。我會接受的。實際上，關於我們如何與 WeWork 合作以及您在那裡提到的問題，存在輕微的脫節。實際上，我們與 WeWork 的關係一直非常積極。真正關注我們投資的兩個戰略領域。一個是與 WeWork 合作，持續不斷地追求大客戶，並且取得了成功，我們相信會繼續取得成功。其次，我們已成為主要供應商，因此，WeWork 的客戶幫助他們在該投資組合中運營房地產服務。所以這兩個方面是持續的，保持健康，這就是我們如何看待我們的關係。

Great. Appreciate that. Can you provide your outlook for the Greystone joint venture over the remainder of the year? Would you expect that to roughly track the rest of your brokerage business? Or would you expect multifamily to maybe rebound a little bit more robustly?

偉大的。感謝。您能否在今年剩餘時間內提供您對 Greystone 合資企業的展望？您希望這能粗略地跟踪您其餘的經紀業務嗎？或者您是否期望多戶家庭可能會更強勁地反彈一點？

We certainly do expect sectors like multifamily, like industrial to rebound faster to see growth at an improvement more quickly than certain other sectors. That's for sure. And again, I'd focus for us more on the strategic proposition that the joint venture we have itself is becoming more fundamentally important and valuable to our company every day. The joint mandates that we're working on, the market share gains that we're making and actually, irrespective of a very short-term one quarter (inaudible) make us feel very good about the incremental value and performance that this relationship adds going forward quarter-by-quarter, this year and into the future.

我們當然希望像工業這樣的多戶住宅行業能夠更快地反彈，從而比某些其他行業更快地看到增長的改善。這是肯定的。再一次，我將更多地關注我們擁有的合資企業本身對我們公司每天變得越來越重要和有價值的戰略主張。我們正在努力的聯合任務，我們正在取得的市場份額收益，實際上，無論一個非常短期的季度（聽不清）如何，都讓我們對這種關係增加的增量價值和績效感到非常滿意一個季度一個季度地向前發展，今年和未來。

Great. And then maybe one last one, if I could. How is the environment in terms of attracting and retaining brokerage talent in a backdrop where it looks like things are going to be lean for an extended period of time? How does that impact what that environment looks like?

偉大的。然後也許是最後一個，如果可以的話。在看起來事情將在很長一段時間內精簡的背景下，吸引和留住經紀人才的環境如何？這對環境有何影響？

And, this is John. The market for high talent doesn't actually correlate to the ebb and flow of say, brokerage revenues or any service line revenue. Great people are always in demand. And in particular, those that are in areas where potentially our industry sees a vaster rebound or higher growth prospects in the future. So every day, the levers across our organization come into the office, very important, they're in the office and they are thinking about both the retention and the recruitment of high talent.

而且，這是約翰。高級人才市場實際上與經紀收入或任何服務線收入的潮起潮落並不相關。偉大的人總是供不應求。特別是那些處於我們行業未來可能出現更大反彈或更高增長前景的領域。所以每天，我們組織的槓桿都進入辦公室，非常重要，他們在辦公室，他們正在考慮保留和招聘高級人才。

And that's no different today than it was 12 months ago, 24 months ago. One thing we are seeing, though, is that the overall inflation is being driven through in our nonrevenue face business is becoming more muted far more manageable than it was say in Q1 last year. So we are seeing some benefits and the slowdown in the overall labor markets and reduced attrition as well as lower inflation there.

這與 12 個月前、24 個月前沒有什麼不同。不過，我們看到的一件事是，我們的非收入業務正在推動整體通貨膨脹變得更加溫和，遠比去年第一季度所說的更易於管理。因此，我們看到了整體勞動力市場的一些好處和放緩，人員流失減少以及通貨膨脹率降低。

(Operator Instructions) As there are no further questions at this time, this does conclude our question-and-answer session. I'd now like to turn the conference back over to Mr. John Forrester for any closing remarks.

（操作員說明）由於目前沒有其他問題，我們的問答環節到此結束。現在，我想將會議轉回給 John Forrester 先生，聽取任何閉幕詞。

Thank you all for joining us today. And Michelle, Neil and the rest of the team look forward to speaking with you again at our second quarter earnings call.

感謝大家今天加入我們。米歇爾、尼爾和團隊的其他成員期待在我們第二季度的財報電話會議上再次與您交談。

The conference has now concluded. Thank you for attending today's presentation. You may now disconnect.

會議現已結束。感謝您參加今天的演講。您現在可以斷開連接。