Cushman & Wakefield Ltd (CWK) 2023 Q4 法說會逐字稿

Welcome to the Cushman & Wakefield fourth quarter 2023 earnings conference call. (Operator Instructions) It is now my pleasure to introduce Megan McGrath, Head of Investor Relations for Cushman & Wakefield. Ms. McGrath, you may begin the conference.

歡迎參加戴德梁行 2023 年第四季財報電話會議。（操作員須知） 現在我很高興向您介紹戴德梁行投資者關係主管 Megan McGrath。麥格拉思女士，您可以開始會議了。

Thank you, and welcome to Cushman & Wakefield's fourth quarter 2023 earnings conference call. Earlier today, we issued a press release announcing our financial results for the period. This release, along with today's presentation, can be found on our Investor Relations website at ir.cushmanwakefield.com.

謝謝，歡迎參加戴德梁行 2023 年第四季財報電話會議。今天早些時候，我們發布了一份新聞稿，宣布了本季的財務表現。此新聞稿以及今天的簡報可在我們的投資者關係網站 ir.cushmanwakefield.com 上找到。

Please turn to the page in our presentation labeled cautionary note on forward-looking statements. Today's presentation contains forward-looking statements based on our current forecast and estimates of future events. These statements should be considered estimates only and actual results may differ materially.

請翻到我們的簡報中標有前瞻性陳述警示說明的頁面。今天的簡報包含基於我們目前的預測和對未來事件的估計的前瞻性陳述。這些陳述僅應被視為估計，實際結果可能存在重大差異。

During today's call, we will refer to non-GAAP financial measures as outlined by SEC guidelines. Reconciliations of GAAP to non-GAAP financial measures, definitions of non-GAAP financial measures, and other related information are found within the financial tables of our earnings release and the appendix of today's presentation. Also, please note that throughout the presentation, comparison and growth rates of to the comparable periods of 2022 and in local currency unless otherwise stated. And with that, I'd like to turn the call over to our CEO, Michelle MacKay.

在今天的電話會議中，我們將參考 SEC 指南概述的非公認會計準則財務指標。GAAP 與非 GAAP 財務指標的調整、非 GAAP 財務指標的定義以及其他相關資訊可在我們的收益發布的財務表格和今天簡報的附錄中找到。另請注意，除非另有說明，否則在整個演示過程中，與 2022 年可比較期間的比較和增長率均以當地貨幣表示。接下來，我想將電話轉給我們的執行長米歇爾·麥凱 (Michelle MacKay)。

Thank you, Megan. It's hard to believe this is just my third earnings call as CEO of Cushman & Wakefield given the pace of change since I became the CEO in July of last year. Since then, we've looked at every aspect of our business. We have updated and mapped out long-term strategic plans for the first time since the IPO in 2018. And we're using data to make tough decisions around spending and capital allocation, which will set us all up for future growth.

謝謝你，梅根。很難相信這只是我擔任戴德梁行執行長的第三次財報電話會議，因為自從我去年 7 月成為執行長以來，變革的速度如此之快。從那時起，我們開始關注業務的各個方面。自2018年IPO以來，我們首次更新並制定了長期策略計畫。我們正在利用數據就支出和資本配置做出艱難的決定，這將為我們所有人的未來成長做好準備。

And we took actions toward deleveraging with our two refinancing transactions last year, and we plan to begin the process of reducing our leverage later this quarter. You can see the impact of the changes that we've made in our 2023 results. We've generated $570 million in adjusted EBITDA and $100 million of free cash flow, up from essentially a breakeven number in 2022.

我們去年透過兩筆再融資交易採取了去槓桿化行動，我們計劃在本季稍後開始降低槓桿率。您可以在 2023 年結果中看到我們所做的更改的影響。我們已實現 5.7 億美元的調整後 EBITDA 和 1 億美元的自由現金流，高於 2022 年的基本損益兩平數字。

And we're not done. We made extraordinary strides last year in a short period of time operating with rigor, executing with speed and urgency, and never settling; continuing to drive the business forward. And we haven't come this far to stop now. Every day, we are working to improve our financial position and flexibility and to create momentum both internally and with our clients so that we are poised to capitalize when the market inevitably rebounds.

我們還沒完成。去年我們在短時間內取得了非凡的進步，嚴謹運作，快速緊迫，永不滿足；持續推動業務向前發展。我們還沒有走到這一步來停下來。我們每天都在努力改善我們的財務狀況和靈活性，並在內部和與客戶之間創造動力，以便我們在市場不可避免地反彈時做好資本化的準備。

We've already started to see some green shoots. In the fourth quarter, leasing revenue grew year over year in all three of our reported regions due to growth in large office and industrial deals in the US and strength in Europe and APAC. Our services businesses remained resilient, growing revenues at 3% in 2023 on top of double-digit growth in 2022. But as I've mentioned before, we are not satisfied with this level of growth, but thanks to the detailed strategy work we completed last year, we're entering 2024 with a better understanding of each of our services businesses and a clear focus on strengthening both long-term growth and profitability.

我們已經開始看到一些萌芽。第四季度，由於美國大型辦公大樓和工業交易的成長以及歐洲和亞太地區的強勁，我們報告的所有三個地區的租賃收入均較去年同期成長。我們的服務業務保持彈性，在 2022 年實現兩位數成長的基礎上，2023 年營收將成長 3%。但正如我之前提到的，我們對這種成長水準並不滿意，但由於我們去年完成的詳細策略工作，我們進入 2024 年時對每項服務業務有了更好的了解，並明確關注加強長期成長和獲利能力。

Now, people have been asking about our view on 2024. Let me start with capital markets. As a long-term real estate investor, I know it's not only the absolute level of interest rates that matter, although it's important. But what also matters is the shape of the yield curve.

現在，人們一直在詢問我們對 2024 年的看法。讓我從資本市場開始。作為一名長期房地產投資者，我知道重要的不僅僅是利率的絕對水平，儘管它很重要。但同樣重要的是殖利率曲線的形狀。

With the inverted curve that we have today, people are hesitant to borrow and lend [law]. Once the Fed begins to cut rates, which seems likely to happen later this year, we set the yield curve to begin a process of normalizing. This should help people get more comfortable about taking 5-, 10- and 15-year risk, providing a pathway to a more active market.

由於今天的倒掛曲線，人們在藉貸方面猶豫不決[法律]。一旦聯準會開始降息（這似乎有可能在今年稍後發生），我們就會設定殖利率曲線以開始正常化過程。這應該可以幫助人們更願意承擔 5 年、10 年和 15 年的風險，從而為進入更活躍的市場提供一條途徑。

And while we anticipate a moderate initial reduction in interest rates later this year, we do feel closer to the restarting of capital markets activity than we have in some time. So even before the Fed cuts, there is accretive, profitable opportunities for us to pursue.

儘管我們預計今年稍後利率將首次適度下調，但我們確實感覺比以往任何時候都更接近資本市場活動的重啟。因此，即使在聯準會降息之前，我們也有可以追求的增值、獲利機會。

Every week, we hear about more funds being raised for real estate investments. There is roughly $400 billion of dry powder in the market waiting to deploy. And even in distress, there's opportunity for Cushman & Wakefield. Our new real estate optimization team helps our clients evaluate, monitor, and address potentially stressed or distressed assets.

每週，我們都會聽說有更多資金用於房地產投資。市場上大約有 4000 億美元的乾粉等待部署。即使身處困境，戴德梁行也有機會。我們新的房地產優化團隊幫助我們的客戶評估、監控和解決潛在的壓力或不良資產。

Now moving on to leasing, we expect stable to modest growth in this segment in 2024, supported by a solid level of lease expirations. And even with many companies still promoting hybrid work, there's 10.5 billion square feet of occupied office space globally. And finally, we see significant opportunity to organically expand our services businesses, thanks to our global scale and client centric strategy.

現在轉向租賃，我們預計在租賃到期數量穩定的支撐下，該領域到 2024 年將實現穩定至溫和增長。儘管許多公司仍在提倡混合辦公，但全球已佔用的辦公空間已達 105 億平方英尺。最後，由於我們的全球規模和以客戶為中心的策略，我們看到了有機擴展我們的服務業務的重大機會。

We remain disciplined and focused on accretive growth. For example, we recently won a long-term contract with a large global financial services company. They weren't looking for the biggest services provider but for a thoughtful partner to help create and execute innovative solutions designed specifically for them, which is why they chose Cushman.

我們保持紀律並專注於增值成長。例如，我們最近贏得了一家大型全球金融服務公司的長期合約。他們不是在尋找最大的服務供應商，而是在尋找一個貼心的合作夥伴來幫助創建和執行專門為他們設計的創新解決方案，這就是他們選擇高緯環球的原因。

And in another recent win, the deal never went to RFP. We won on our reputation, our relationships, and our ability to handle complicated situations. Through our commitment to streamlining our cost structure, enhancing our balance sheet and cash flow, and strengthening our client-facing initiatives, we are poised to create meaningful value as the market returns to growth. We will never settle.

在最近的另一場勝利中，這筆交易從未進入 RFP。我們贏得聲譽、關係以及處理複雜情況的能力。透過我們致力於簡化成本結構、改善資產負債表和現金流量以及加強面向客戶的舉措，我們準備在市場恢復成長時創造有意義的價值。我們永遠不會和解。

We're often seen as the scrappy challenger in this market, outthinking others, brave in our decision-making and advice. The people of Cushman & Wakefield proudly lean into today's market challenges because we don't run away from our clients' biggest challenges; we run to them. And with that, I'll hand the call over to Neil.

我們常被視為這個市場上鬥志旺盛的挑戰者，思維超越他人，勇敢地做出決策和提出建議。高緯環球 (Cushman & Wakefield) 員工自豪地應對當今的市場挑戰，因為我們不會逃避客戶面臨的最大挑戰；我們跑向他們。這樣，我就把電話轉給尼爾。

Thank you, Michelle, and good afternoon, everyone. While the macro environment in 2023 was persistently challenging, we proactively enhanced our balance sheet strength and flexibility, prudently cut costs, and improved our free cash flow conversion through better working capital efficiency, all of which position us well for a market recovery.

謝謝米歇爾，大家下午好。儘管2023年宏觀環境持續充滿挑戰，但我們積極增強資產負債表實力和靈活性，審慎削減成本，並透過提高營運資金效率改善自由現金流轉換，所有這些都為我們為市場復甦做好了準備。

For the fourth quarter, fee revenue was $1.8 billion, a 3%-decrease from the prior year. PF/FM revenue was up 1% or up 3.4%, excluding the contract change we discussed last quarter. This change will continue to impact the first half of the year, resulting in a roughly $50 million headwind to fee revenue, but no impact to EBITDA.

第四季的費用收入為 18 億美元，比去年同期下降 3%。PF/FM 營收成長 1% 或成長 3.4%，不包括我們上季討論的合約變更。這項變更將繼續影響今年上半年，導致費用收入減少約 5,000 萬美元，但對 EBITDA 沒有影響。

Leasing revenues grew 5% versus prior year, the first positive results we have reported in this segment since third quarter 2022 as we saw improved results in each of our reported regions. Capital markets revenue declined 32% in the fourth quarter as transactional markets continued to be impacted by interest rate volatility and uncertainty. Valuation and other was down 4%, a sequential improvement in the year-over-year trend.

租賃收入較上年增長 5%，這是自 2022 年第三季以來我們在該領域首次報告的積極成果，因為我們看到每個報告地區的業績都有所改善。由於交易市場繼續受到利率波動和不確定性的影響，第四季度資本市場收入下降了 32%。估值及其他下降 4%，年比趨勢較上季改善。

Adjusted EBITDA for the fourth quarter was $213 million, down $7 million from the prior year. Despite the decline in revenue, our adjusted EBITDA margin of 11.8% was essentially flat year over year, reflecting our commitment to cost discipline. Adjusted earnings per share for the quarter was $0.45, down $0.01 from the prior year.

第四季調整後 EBITDA 為 2.13 億美元，比去年同期減少 700 萬美元。儘管收入下降，但我們調整後的 EBITDA 利潤率為 11.8%，與去年同期基本持平，這反映了我們對成本控制的承諾。本季調整後每股收益為 0.45 美元，較上年同期下降 0.01 美元。

Turning to our segment results for the quarter, in the Americas, we saw a 10% year-over-year decline in brokerage revenues, with capital markets revenue down 36% and leasing revenue up 2%. We are encouraged by the fourth quarter performance in leasing as we successfully executed an increased number of large office and industrial deals.

轉向本季的分部業績，在美洲，我們看到經紀收入年減 10%，其中資本市場收入下降 36%，租賃收入成長 2%。我們對第四季度的租賃業績感到鼓舞，因為我們成功執行了越來越多的大型辦公室和工業交易。

Americas PM/FM revenue increased 1% or 4.6%, excluding the impact of the contract change. Americas' adjusted EBITDA of $139 million declined 16% or $24 million versus prior year, with $14 million of the decline attributable to our Greystone joint venture. As FHA volumes remained under significant pressure in the quarter, we continue to believe that long-term fundamentals in the multifamily market are compelling, and we expect results in this business to stabilize in 2024.

排除合約變更的影響，美洲 PM/FM 收入成長 1% 或 4.6%。美洲調整後 EBITDA 為 1.39 億美元，與前一年相比下降 16%，即 2,400 萬美元，其中 1,400 萬美元的下降歸因於我們的 Greystone 合資企業。由於本季度 FHA 成交量仍面臨巨大壓力，我們仍然相信多戶住宅市場的長期基本面令人信服，我們預計該業務的業績將在 2024 年穩定下來。

EMEA brokerage revenue declined 1% in the quarter, with capital markets down 26% and leasing up 13%, with particular strength in the UK. PM/FM revenue was down 11%, primarily reflecting lower project management activity due to reduced CapEx budgets as well as our focus on driving profitable growth. Adjusted EBITDA within the year grew 28%, with adjusted EBITDA margins up 670 basis points, driven by the change in mix to higher margin leasing revenue, as well as a tight cost discipline.

歐洲、中東和非洲地區經紀收入本季下降 1%，資本市場下降 26%，租賃成長 13%，其中英國尤其強勁。PM/FM 收入下降了 11%，主要反映了由於資本支出預算減少以及我們專注於推動獲利成長而導致的專案管理活動減少。受利潤率更高的租賃收入組合變化以及嚴格的成本控制的推動，調整後 EBITDA 年內增長了 28%，調整後 EBITDA 利潤率增長了 670 個基點。

Our APAC region reported another solid quarter, with leasing revenue up 14% and capital markets up 5%, driven by strong growth in Southeast Asia and India. Valuation, other was down 4% and PM/FM grew 7% as property, facilities, and project management all performed well in the quarter.

在東南亞和印度強勁成長的推動下，我們的亞太地區又報告了一個強勁的季度，租賃收入成長了 14%，資本市場成長了 5%。由於房地產、設施和專案管理在本季度均表現良好，估值及其他下降了 4%，PM/FM 增長了 7%。

Now turning to our full-year results, for the full year 2023, we generated fee revenue of $6.5 billion, a 10%-decrease over the prior year. Capital markets declined 41%, leasing was down 12%, and valuation and other was down 11%. Partially offsetting these declines, PM/FM revenue grew 3% for the full year, supported by strong growth in facilities management and property management. We achieved adjusted EBITDA of $570 million, a 37%-decrease from 2022 with adjusted EBITDA margins of 8.7%. Adjusted earnings per share for the year was $0.84.

現在來看看我們的全年業績，2023 年全年，我們的手續費收入為 65 億美元，比上年下降 10%。資本市場下跌 41%，租賃下跌 12%，估值及其他下跌 11%。在設施管理和物業管理強勁增長的支持下，PM/FM 收入全年增長 3%，部分抵消了這些下降。我們實現調整後 EBITDA 為 5.7 億美元，比 2022 年下降 37%，調整後 EBITDA 利潤率為 8.7%。本年度調整後每股收益為 0.84 美元。

Turning to cash flow, we generated $101 million of free cash flow for the full year compared with a $2-million use of cash in 2022. I'm very proud of our team's work to improve free cash flow generation. It took a global effort and significant cross-functional cooperation to increase our working capital efficiency and deliver these strong results. We remain committed to deleveraging and expect to begin debt repayments later this quarter.

談到現金流，我們全年產生了 1.01 億美元的自由現金流，而 2022 年的現金使用量為 200 萬美元。我對我們團隊在改善自由現金流產生方面所做的工作感到非常自豪。我們透過全球努力和重要的跨職能合作來提高我們的營運資本效率並取得這些強勁成果。我們仍然致力於去槓桿化，並預計在本季稍後開始償還債務。

Our balance sheet is secure. Following our two refinancings in 2023. We have no significant funded maturity until 2028 outside of the $193-million term loan due in 2025, which we expect to repay with cash on hand. At the end of the quarter, we had $1.9 billion of liquidity, consisting of $800 million of cash on hand and $1.1 billion available on our revolving credit facility.

我們的資產負債表是安全的。繼 2023 年我們進行了兩次再融資之後。除了 2025 年到期的 1.93 億美元定期貸款外，我們在 2028 年之前沒有重大資金到期，我們預計將用手頭現金償還這筆貸款。截至本季末，我們擁有 19 億美元的流動資金，其中包括 8 億美元的手頭現金和 11 億美元的循環信貸額度。

We had no outstanding borrowings on our revolver. Our net leverage was 4.3 times. And taking into account our interest rate hedges, 93% of our debt is currently fixed rate.

我們的左輪手槍沒有未償還的借款。我們的淨槓桿率為 4.3 倍。考慮到我們的利率對沖，我們 93% 的債務目前是固定利率。

Finally, moving on to our outlook, for the first quarter, we expect revenue to be relatively flat year over year with a slight improvement in sequential brokerage trends and modest services revenue growth as we focus on driving profitable growth in that business. We expect to achieve a slight year-over-year improvement in EBITDA as last year's cost actions are expected to more than offset first quarter cost increases.

最後，展望第一季度，我們預期營收將比去年同期相對持平，經紀業務連續趨勢略有改善，服務收入成長適度，因為我們專注於推動該業務的獲利成長。我們預計 EBITDA 將比去年同期略有改善，因為去年的成本行動預計將足以抵消第一季的成本成長。

We are not providing full year guidance today, but I'd like to give you some color on how we are currently thinking about the headwinds and tailwinds for the year. We do expect trends in capital markets to improve throughout 2024. However, the sustained growth is unlikely to occur before the second half of this year when we anticipate a more conducive interest rate environment. We expect the leasing market to be relatively stable for the year and for our services business to grow at a similar rate to 2023.

我們今天不會提供全年指引，但我想向您介紹我們目前如何看待今年的逆風和順風。我們確實預期 2024 年資本市場的趨勢將會改善。然而，持續成長不太可能在今年下半年之前出現，屆時我們預計利率環境將更加有利。我們預計今年租賃市場將相對穩定，我們的服務業務將以與 2023 年類似的速度成長。

On the cost side, we anticipate some cost pressure in 2024, driven by normal inflation, as well as high incentive comp, as we focus on positioning the company for market growth. We expect these cost headwinds will be mostly offset by our cost efficiency initiatives.

在成本方面，我們預計在正常通膨以及高激勵補償的推動下，2024 年將面臨一些成本壓力，因為我們專注於為公司定位以適應市場成長。我們預計這些成本阻力將被我們的成本效率措施所抵銷。

In conclusion, in 2023, we solidified the balance sheet and significantly improved free cash flow, ending the year with positive momentum. We are financially well positioned for growth, margin improvements, and further capital structure enhancements once consistent market growth returns. And with that, I'll turn the call back over to Michelle.

總而言之，2023年，我們鞏固了資產負債表，自由現金流顯著改善，以積極的勢頭結束了這一年。一旦市場回報持續成長，我們在財務上就處於有利的地位，可以實現成長、利潤率提高和進一步增強資本結構。然後，我會將電話轉回米歇爾。

Thanks, Neil. 2023 was the year that we strengthened our foundation, building on Cushman's 100 plus years of history to begin writing the story of our next century. 2024 will be another transformational year for us as we see future growth opportunities continue to execute for the long term, drive discipline in our capital allocation, and maintain our focus on unlocking meaningful value in the company. Now I'll turn the call over to the operator to take your questions. Operator.

謝謝，尼爾。 2023 年是我們鞏固基礎的一年，在戴德梁行 100 多年的歷史基礎上，開始寫下一個世紀的故事。 2024 年對我們來說將是另一個轉型的一年，因為我們看到未來的成長機會將繼續長期存在，推動我們資本配置的紀律，並繼續專注於釋放公司的有意義的價值。現在我將把電話轉給接線員回答您的問題。操作員。

(Operator Instructions) Anthony Paolone, JPMorgan.

（操作員指令）Anthony Paolone，摩根大通。

Thank you. I guess my first one, just -- I wanted to clarify, Neil, when you talk about services fee revenue, what all is included in that bucket? Because I guess what I'm trying to understand is just kind of where the '24 revenue picture rolls up to, just given the three bullets here in your outlook.

謝謝。我想我的第一個，只是 - 我想澄清一下，尼爾，當你談論服務費收入時，該桶中都包含什麼？因為我想我想要了解的只是 24 年收入狀況的總結，只要給出您展望中的三個項目符號即可。

Sure, Tony. So essentially, three areas: property management; facilities management, which in facilities management will include our CWS business, which is the more janitorial; and then, property management; and then finally, project management.

當然，托尼。所以本質上是三個領域：物業管理；設施管理，其中設施管理將包括我們的水煤漿業務，它更具清潔性；然後是物業管理；最後是專案管理。

If we think about '23, it was really project management where we saw that decline, especially in the fourth quarter. Facilities management and property management was strong but certainly, as CapEx budgets got constrained during the year, it was the more ad hoc property management which declined.

如果我們回想 23 年，我們會發現實際上是專案管理導致了下降，尤其是在第四季。設施管理和物業管理表現強勁，但毫無疑問，由於今年資本支出預算受到限制，臨時性的物業管理有所下降。

As we look to 2024, particularly in the first quarter, we are hyper focused on accretive, long-term growth. And so they look at our service contracts, which are historically long-term and recurring -- what we really are focused on is how we improve the profitability over the long run. So services remains a key focus area for us. We are focused on delivering high quality, differentiated service. And so what that may do is pressure the margin certainly early in the year but ultimately lead to strong accretive growth as we move to the back half of the year and into 2025.

展望 2024 年，特別是第一季度，我們高度關注長期的增值成長。因此，他們關注我們的服務合同，這些合同歷來是長期的、經常性的——我們真正關注的是如何提高長期盈利能力。因此，服務仍然是我們的重點領域。我們專注於提供高品質、差異化的服務。因此，這可能會在今年年初對利潤率造成壓力，但隨著我們進入今年下半年和 2025 年，最終會帶來強勁的成長。

Okay, and if I just tried to take what you've put out here in noting the cost, headwinds -- some of that you'll offset. Should we take the outlook to be -- if you're running a fairly flattish top line, that margins will be flat, maybe even down a little bit? Just trying to get to the sensitivity on margins.

好吧，如果我只是嘗試採納您在此指出的成本和不利因素，那麼您將抵消其中的一些內容。我們是否應該認為，如果你的營收相當平淡，那麼利潤率也會持平，甚至可能會下降一點？只是想了解邊緣的敏感度。

Sure, so if we look at margins, I think you got to break the year into two halves. Obviously a lot of the margin will depend on how we see brokerage coming back. As we know, when we see brokerage come back, that's when we really will see the margin accretion.

當然，所以如果我們看看利潤率，我認為你必須把今年分成兩半。顯然，很大一部分利潤將取決於我們如何看待經紀業務的復甦。正如我們所知，當我們看到經紀業務回歸時，我們才會真正看到保證金的增加。

If we think specifically about the first quarter, what we -- we do expect to be able to drive approximately 100 basis points of margin improvement in the first quarter as we see a net benefit of our '23 cost savings. And then if we look to the full year, we expect that net benefit to reverse as we lap some of that '23 cost action. Taking a look at a longer longer-term view, the work we did on the cost side in '23 has set us up well for margin accretion when brokerage comes back, but that will depend on the speed of the recovery.

如果我們具體考慮第一季度，我們確實預計能夠在第一季將利潤率提高約 100 個基點，因為我們看到了 23 年成本節省的淨收益。然後，如果我們展望全年，我們預計隨著我們完成 23 年成本行動的一部分，淨收益將會逆轉。從更長遠的角度來看，我們在 23 年在成本方面所做的工作為我們在經紀業務恢復時實現利潤增長做好了準備，但這將取決於復甦的速度。

Ronald Kamdem, Morgan Stanley.

羅納德‧卡姆德姆，摩根士丹利。

Great. So I guess my first question was just on the -- thinking about the cash flow conversion. Maybe can you just provide some context of how 2023 closed out in your view and how you're thinking about cash flow conversion as we're going into 2024, even if it's a first half, second half rate down? Curious how you guys are thinking about that.

偉大的。所以我想我的第一個問題只是關於現金流量轉換。也許您可以提供一些背景信息，說明您認為 2023 年將如何結束，以及您如何考慮進入 2024 年時的現金流轉換，即使上半年、下半年利率有所下降？好奇你們是怎麼想的。

Sure, absolutely right. So as I said on the call, we were exceptionally pleased with the work that our team did to drive free cash flow in 2023. And that certainly has positioned us well as we go into '24. We'll use that capital in the most accretive manner.

當然，絕對正確。正如我在電話會議上所說，我們對我們的團隊為推動 2023 年自由現金流所做的工作感到非常滿意。這無疑讓我們在進入 24 世紀時處於有利地位。我們將以最增值的方式使用這些資本。

Several factors drove the positive outcome, but it was primarily working capital. And if we look at what the contributors were in working capital, about half of it was from the natural release of working capital as the business slowed. The other half was really driven by our internal focus and initiatives.

有多個因素推動了這一積極成果，但主要是營運資金。如果我們看看營運資金的貢獻者，其中大約一半來自業務放緩時營運資金的自然釋放。另一半實際上是由我們的內部重點和舉措所驅動的。

As we look into 2024, it's those initiatives, which will really put us in a good place through '24. I did not expect to see the same level of natural release that we saw in 23 years. The business strengthens. And in fact, as we -- we will continue to focus on free cash flow conversion. It is of very high priority, but you can expect us to use our balance sheet to drive growth, especially as we start seeing those green shoots in the back half of the year.

當我們展望 2024 年時，正是這些舉措真正讓我們在 24 世紀處於有利位置。我沒想到會看到 23 年來同樣程度的自然釋放。業務加強。事實上，我們將繼續關注自由現金流轉換。這是非常重要的，但你可以期望我們利用我們的資產負債表來推動成長，特別是當我們在今年下半年開始看到這些萌芽時。

Great. And then just going back to the 1Q outlook, which was super helpful, talked about sort of a slight increase in adjusted EBITDA. I think you mentioned sort of 100 basis points and basically margin gains versus last year. I guess if we roll that forward a little bit, thinking about the back half of the year, how should we be thinking about sort of the year-over-year comp on EBITDA? Because presumably there is some sort of recovery coming in the back half of the year, but it sounds like, depending on the margin outlook, EBITDA could be flat, could be slightly up. As we roll forward, what should we be keeping in mind for the EBITDA trajectory compared to '23?

偉大的。然後回到第一季的展望，這非常有幫助，談到調整後的 EBITDA 略有增加。我認為您提到了 100 個基點，基本上與去年相比利潤率有所增長。我想如果我們稍微向前推進一點，考慮一下今年下半年，我們應該如何考慮 EBITDA 的年比比較？因為今年下半年可能會出現某種復甦，但根據利潤率前景，EBITDA 可能持平，也可能略有上升。當我們向前邁進時，與 23 年相比，我們應該牢記 EBITDA 軌跡是什麼？

Yeah, I think the question you're really asking is on the cost side, how we're thinking about the costs. We'll make assumptions on the revenue side, and I'll leave that to you. We're not providing full guidance.

是的，我認為你真正問的問題是在成本方面，我們如何考慮成本。我們將對收入方面做出假設，然後我將其留給您。我們不提供完整的指導。

But as we think about the costs for the full year, we are balancing some headwinds and some tailwinds. As with most companies, we are facing some inflation, particularly in the first half of the year. And in addition, we will see some of our incentive comp come back, certainly, as performance improves.

但當我們考慮全年的成本時，我們正在平衡一些逆風和順風。與大多數公司一樣，我們面臨一定程度的通貨膨脹，特別是在今年上半年。此外，隨著績效的提高，我們肯定會看到一些激勵補償的回歸。

So what that means is we certainly will offset all of our cost increases in the first half of the year. But as we look to back half of the year, we will mostly offset our increases but not completely. And so margin accretion in the back half will really be driven by that recovery in brokerage depending on the timing and extent of that.

所以這意味著我們肯定會抵銷今年上半年所有的成本增加。但當我們回顧今年下半年時，我們將大部分抵消成長，但不會完全抵消。因此，後半段的利潤成長實際上將由經紀業務的復甦推動，這取決於復甦的時間和程度。

Michael Griffin, Citi.

邁克爾·格里芬，花旗銀行。

Great, thanks. Neil, maybe just a question on the balance sheet and leverage. I know it's still above kind of the historical range that you're looking to get it in. But if the expectation, and maybe I read this wrong, is for EBITDA to be flat on a year-over-year basis. I guess what's it going to take to get that leverage metric down to a more comfortable level?

萬分感謝。尼爾，也許只是關於資產負債表和槓桿的問題。我知道它仍然高於您希望進入的歷史範圍。但如果預期（也許我理解錯誤）是 EBITDA 同比持平。我想如何才能將槓桿指標降低到更舒適的程度？

Michael, look, if we think about '23, we had a very strong free cash flow year. So that's given us a lot of flexibility and optionality as we look at '24. Leverage is clearly a key priority and as I said on the call, we will begin repaying debt at the end of the quarter. Our intent is to pay down the $193 million that is out on the '25 term loan by August of '25, but the exact timing will depend on how we see that recovery. We are all fairly optimistic about the year, and so we will see leverage come down naturally as EBITDA improves.

邁克爾，你看，如果我們想想 23 年，我們的自由現金流非常強勁。因此，當我們展望「24」時，這給了我們很大的靈活性和選擇性。槓桿顯然是一個關鍵優先事項，正如我在電話會議上所說，我們將在本季末開始償還債務。我們的目的是在 25 年 8 月之前償還 25 年定期貸款的 1.93 億美元，但確切的時間將取決於我們如何看待復甦。我們對今年都相當樂觀，因此隨著 EBITDA 的改善，我們將看到槓桿率自然下降。

We ended the year at 4.3 times, which was right in line with what we guided to, and our low and target remains intact. We would like to operate in that two to three times. But naturally, the leverage is driven by two things, debt and EBITDA. And so, as we see that recovery of EBITDA, that's so we see that declining and leverage

我們年底的回報率為 4.3 倍，這與我們的指導目標一致，我們的低點和目標保持不變。我們想進行兩到三次操作。但自然地，槓桿是由債務和 EBITDA 兩件事驅動的。因此，當我們看到 EBITDA 復甦時，我們就會看到槓桿率下降

Great (multiple speakers) -- go ahead.

太好了（多個發言者）——繼續。

Yeah, I'll just add we are comfortable at these levels. We feel like we're in a good place.

是的，我只想補充一點，我們對這些水平感到滿意。我們感覺我們處於一個好地方。

Got you. I appreciate the color on that. And then maybe just a broader question about the leasing market. It seems like results in the fourth quarter were better than what expectations were going into it. I mean, are you seeing a more concerted effort for these occupiers of particularly office real estate to make decisions around leasing? I mean, we've heard I guess more on the REIT side that large occupiers are still kind of delayed in making these big decisions. So has anything changed there or has the time from first interacting with the broker to sign the leases -- that's still pretty long relative to historical levels?

明白你了。我很欣賞它的顏色。然後也許只是一個關於租賃市場的更廣泛的問題。第四季的業績似乎好於預期。我的意思是，您是否看到這些特別是辦公房地產的佔用者在租賃方面做出更一致的努力？我的意思是，我猜在房地產投資信託基金方面，我們更多地聽到大型租戶在做出這些重大決定時仍然有點延遲。那麼，那裡有什麼變化嗎？或者從第一次與經紀人互動到簽署租約的時間——相對於歷史水平來說仍然相當長？

Michael, this is Michelle. Let me unpack that for you. Net-net leasing is looking really solid for us. It's a global strength at Cushman & Wakefield. It has been driven by -- the performance that we've seen has been driven by larger office and industrial deal. And if you look at 2023, the average deal size for us did increase in office in particular, so we are seeing a lot of those larger, more concentrated transactions.

邁克爾，這是米歇爾。讓我為您解壓縮。淨淨租賃對我們來說看起來非常可靠。這是戴德梁行的全球優勢。我們所看到的業績是由更大的辦公室和工業交易所推動的。如果你看看 2023 年，我們的平均交易規模確實有所增加，尤其是辦公大樓，所以我們看到了很多規模更大、更集中的交易。

And in the US in particular, we saw strength in the northeast markets, the tri-state, the midwest. And in Europe, I would call out the UK. And in APAC, I would call out India. So we're feeling pretty optimistic about leasing going forward in 2024.

尤其是在美國，我們看到了東北市場、三州和中西部市場的強勁表現。在歐洲，我會提到英​​國。在亞太地區，我會提到印度。因此，我們對 2024 年的租賃前景非常樂觀。

To your question about occupiers making decisions, I think the type of occupier that we are dealing with and the Class A product that we tend to work in has really driven that kind of performance because those occupiers are making decisions.

對於你關於佔用者做出決策的問題，我認為我們正在處理的佔用者類型以及我們傾向於使用的 A 類產品確實推動了這種績效，因為這些佔用者正在做出決策。

(Operator Instructions) Steve Sheldon, William Blair.

（操作員說明）史蒂夫謝爾頓、威廉布萊爾。

Hi, you've got (inaudible) on today. So my first question, it sounds like you're essentially at your targeted run rate for the cost-saving initiatives at this point. I just wanted to ask if you'd be able to quantify the impact of those initiatives in the quarter and if you feel that you're still at an appropriate run rate heading into 2024 or if there are any areas you're still looking at for additional efficiency.

嗨，您今天有（聽不清楚）。所以我的第一個問題，聽起來您目前基本上已經達到了成本節約計畫的目標運行率。我只是想問一下，您是否能夠量化本季度這些舉措的影響，以及您是否認為進入 2024 年仍處於適當的運行速度，或者您是否仍在關注任何領域以提高效率。

Yeah so we are very comfortable where we are from a cost efficiency standpoint. '23 was the year when we really reset our cost base. Our target was to take out $130 million of cost, we achieved $140 million. So we really feel good about what we achieved and just very proud of what the teams did throughout the world in achieving those cost savings.

是的，所以從成本效率的角度來看，我們非常滿意。 23 年是我們真正重新調整成本基礎的一年。我們的目標是削減 1.3 億美元的成本，我們實現了 1.4 億美元。因此，我們對所取得的成就感到非常滿意，並對世界各地的團隊在實現成本節約方面所做的努力感到非常自豪。

We are now at a pretty good place, so now we're sort of turning our attention on how we start seeding growth in the company as we look forward, obviously, depending on what we see happening in the brokerage markets. That $140 million will have a carryover impact of about $30 million, which we'll see primarily in the first half of the year.

我們現在處於一個非常好的位置，所以現在我們將注意力轉向如何開始在公司中播種成長，顯然，這取決於我們在經紀市場上看到的情況。這 1.4 億美元將產生約 3,000 萬美元的結轉影響，我們將主要在今年上半年看到這一影響。

We'll continue to be very prudent on cost. Cost management is clearly a focus and a discipline that we're very good at over time and will continue. At this point, we are not planning any specific cost initiatives like we did in 2023, but at the same time, there's always levers that we can pull, but we are turning our attention more to seeding growth.

我們將繼續對成本保持非常謹慎的態度。成本管理顯然是我們非常擅長的焦點和一門學科，隨著時間的推移，我們將繼續下去。目前，我們沒有像 2023 年那樣計劃任何具體的成本舉措，但與此同時，我們總有可以利用的槓桿，但我們正在將注意力更多地轉向播種增長。

Great, thanks, Neil. And then just quickly, can you provide any additional color on some of the underlying trends within PM/FM or services? And specifically what exactly is driving some of that weakness you saw? I think you said it accelerated a bit in the fourth quarter. Just, what's going on there, probably?

太好了，謝謝，尼爾。然後，您能否就 PM/FM 或服務中的一些基本趨勢提供任何額外的資訊？具體來說，是什麼導致了您所看到的一些弱點？我想你說過第四季有加速。只是，那裡可能發生了什麼事？

Yeah, if we look at services, services performed right in line with our expectation and our guidance for the full year. The one adjustment you have to make is for a single large contract, which would change the way in which we are accounting for that contract. That's about $50 million in '23 and about $50 million in '24. So if you exclude that contract, which really just changes the way our gross net revenue is reflected but does not change the EBITDA or the profitability of the contract, we grew our services business at 4% for the year, which was right in line with our guidance.

是的，如果我們看看服務，服務的表現完全符合我們的預期和全年的指導。您必須進行的一項調整是針對一份大型合同，這將改變我們對該合約的會計處理方式。23 年約 5,000 萬美元，24 年約 5,000 萬美元。因此，如果你排除該合同，它實際上只是改變了我們總淨收入的反映方式，但沒有改變 EBITDA 或合同的盈利能力，那麼我們的服務業務今年增長了 4%，這與我們的指導。

We expect similar performance in '24. If we look at where we saw it, essentially, it was in the project management where we saw a slight slowdown, but property management and facilities management were very strong. And we saw particularly strong growth in the Asia Pacific, where we have large services businesses and those businesses performed well.

我們預計 24 年會有類似的表現。如果我們看一下我們看到的地方，本質上是在專案管理方面我們看到了輕微的放緩，但物業管理和設施管理非常強勁。我們在亞太地區看到了特別強勁的成長，我們在那裡擁有大型服務業務，而且這些業務表現良好。

On the project management side, and certainly, as we look at making the business more efficient, that was really what drove the decline in services in EMEA in a very, very healthy look at the business and really a long-term focus, as I say, to drive long-term accretion. So as we look in the first and second quarter, we'll continue to focus on profitability and expect to achieve the same level of growth in '24 as we achieved in '23.

在專案管理方面，當然，當我們著眼於提高業務效率時，這確實是導致歐洲、中東和非洲地區服務下降的原因，從非常非常健康的業務角度來看，這確實是一個長期關注點，正如我所言比如說，推動長期成長。因此，當我們展望第一季和第二季時，我們將繼續專注於獲利能力，並期望在 24 年實現與 23 年相同的成長水準。

Thank you. At this time, we are showing no further questions. This concludes our question-and-answer session, and I'd like to turn the call back to Michelle MacKay for any closing remarks.

謝謝。目前，我們沒有提出任何進一步的問題。我們的問答環節到此結束，我想將電話轉回給 Michelle MacKay，讓其作結語。

Thank you, operator, and thank you, everyone, for dialing in today. We look forward to speaking with you again on our first quarter earnings call.

謝謝接線員，也謝謝大家今天撥電話。我們期待在第一季財報電話會議上再次與您交談。

The conference has now concluded. Thank you for attending today's presentation. You may now disconnect your lines.

會議現已結束。感謝您參加今天的演講。現在您可以斷開線路。