Cushman & Wakefield Ltd (CWK) 2022 Q4 法說會逐字稿

Welcome to the Cushman & Wakefield's Fourth Quarter 2022 Earnings Conference Call. (Operator Instructions) It is now my pleasure to introduce Megan McGrath, Head of Investor Relations for Cushman & Wakefield. Ms. McGrath, you may begin the conference.

歡迎來到 Cushman & Wakefield 2022 年第四季度收益電話會議。 （操作員說明）現在我很高興介紹 Cushman & Wakefield 投資者關係主管 Megan McGrath。 McGrath 女士，您可以開始會議了。

Thank you, and welcome to Cushman & Wakefield's Fourth Quarter 2022 Earnings Conference Call.

謝謝，歡迎來到 Cushman & Wakefield 2022 年第四季度收益電話會議。

Earlier today, we issued a press release announcing our financial results for the period. This release, along with today's presentation, can be found on our Investor Relations website at ir.cushmanwakefield.com.

今天早些時候，我們發布了一份新聞稿，宣布了我們在此期間的財務業績。可以在我們的投資者關係網站 ir.cushmanwakefield.com 上找到此新聞稿以及今天的演示文稿。

Please turn to the page in our presentation labeled Cautionary Note on Forward-Looking Statements. Today's presentation contains forward-looking statements, based on our current forecasts and estimates of future events. These statements should be considered estimates only, and actual results may differ materially.

請翻到我們演示文稿中標有“前瞻性陳述的注意事項”的頁面。今天的演示文稿包含前瞻性陳述，這些陳述基於我們當前對未來事件的預測和估計。這些陳述僅應被視為估計，實際結果可能存在重大差異。

During today's call, we will refer to non-GAAP financial measures as outlined by SEC guidelines. Reconciliations of GAAP to non-GAAP financial measures, definitions of non-GAAP financial measures and other related information are found within the financial tables of our earnings release and the appendix of today's presentation.

在今天的電話會議中，我們將參考 SEC 指南中概述的非 GAAP 財務指標。 GAAP 與非 GAAP 財務措施的對賬、非 GAAP 財務措施的定義和其他相關信息可在我們的收益發布的財務表格和今天的演示文稿的附錄中找到。

Also, please note that throughout the presentation, comparisons and growth rates are to the comparable periods of 2021 and in local currency, unless otherwise stated. For those of you following along with our presentation, we will begin on Page 4. And with that, I'd like to turn the call over to our CEO, John Forrester.

另請注意，除非另有說明，否則在整個演示文稿中，比較和增長率均與 2021 年的可比期間和當地貨幣有關。對於那些跟隨我們的演示文稿的人，我們將從第 4 頁開始。因此，我想將電話轉給我們的首席執行官 John Forrester。

Thanks, Megan, and thank you to everyone joining our call. With me today is Neil Johnston, our CFO, and I have also invited Kevin Thorpe, our Chief Economist, to participate in the Q&A portion of the call to provide insight into our macroeconomic and market outlook. I'm proud of the results we have reported today, and I want to thank our team of exceptional professionals around the world.

謝謝梅根，感謝大家加入我們的電話會議。今天和我在一起的是我們的首席財務官尼爾約翰斯頓，我還邀請了我們的首席經濟學家凱文索普參加電話會議的問答部分，以提供對我們的宏觀經濟和市場前景的見解。我為我們今天報告的結果感到自豪，我要感謝我們在世界各地的傑出專業團隊。

2022 was a year like no other, and our team's ability to provide value to our clients in such volatile times is a testament to their hard work and the strategic groundwork that we as a company have been laying to enhance the strength and resiliency of our platform. 2022 was, of course, a year of 2 contrasting halves, with record results in the first half, offset somewhat by a second half that presented considerable macroeconomic headwinds.

2022 年是與眾不同的一年，我們的團隊在如此動蕩的時期為客戶提供價值的能力證明了他們的辛勤工作以及我們公司為增強平台的實力和彈性而奠定的戰略基礎.當然，2022 年是有兩個截然不同的半年的一年，上半年取得了創紀錄的成績，但在一定程度上被下半年出現的相當大的宏觀經濟逆風所抵消。

Despite the uncertain environment, Cushman & Wakefield reported strong results for the full year. Fee revenue of $7.2 billion and adjusted EBITDA of $899 million, growing 8% and 4%, respectively, were record company highs. Our 2022 results reflect the consistent execution of our multiyear strategy of building a fully-diversified global platform with a strong mix of highly recurring revenues.

儘管環境不確定，但 Cushman & Wakefield 報告了全年的強勁業績。 72 億美元的手續費收入和 8.99 億美元的調整後 EBITDA 分別增長 8% 和 4%，創下公司歷史新高。我們 2022 年的業績反映了我們多年戰略的一貫執行，即建立一個具有高度經常性收入的強大組合的完全多元化的全球平台。

During the year, we continued to invest in long-term strategic growth areas, completing and integrating 6 acquisitions and further enhancing our position in growing asset classes such as life sciences and logistics.

年內，我們繼續投資於長期戰略增長領域，完成並整合了 6 項收購，進一步提升了我們在生命科學和物流等成長型資產類別中的地位。

A few notable highlights of the year include an exceptional growth year for our occupier outsourcing business as we won and onboarded several of the largest available mandates. Our new business pipelines continue to grow strongly, with a mix of competitive second- and third-generation contracts and first-generation outsourcing, as corporates look to reduce costs.

這一年的一些顯著亮點包括我們的租戶外包業務取得了非凡的增長，因為我們贏得併獲得了幾個最大的可用授權。隨著企業尋求降低成本，我們的新業務渠道繼續強勁增長，結合了具有競爭力的第二代和第三代合同以及第一代外包。

We had a successful year with our Greystone joint venture, and we remain excited about this partnership and continue to build out our full-service multifamily platform to drive market share gains in what is now the largest asset class for institutional investors in the United States.

我們與 Greystone 合資企業度過了成功的一年，我們對這種合作夥伴關係感到興奮，並繼續構建我們的全方位服務多戶家庭平台，以推動市場份額增長，這是目前美國機構投資者最大的資產類別。

Additionally, we achieved double-digit growth in industrial leasing, while life sciences leasing grew by more than 60% versus the prior year, both reflecting our prior investments in these key growth areas.

此外，我們在工業租賃方面實現了兩位數的增長，而生命科學租賃比上一年增長了 60% 以上，這都反映了我們之前在這些關鍵增長領域的投資。

And lastly, despite the challenging environment in capital markets in the second half of the year, our overall market share for investment sales volumes in the U.S. increased 11 basis points in 2022, according to Real Capital Analytics. We finished third overall in total investment sales volumes while moving up to second and fourth in the industrial and multifamily asset classes, respectively.

最後，根據 Real Capital Analytics 的數據，儘管下半年資本市場環境充滿挑戰，但我們在美國投資銷售額的總體市場份額在 2022 年增加了 11 個基點。我們在總投資銷售額中排名第三，同時在工業和多戶資產類別中分別升至第二和第四位。

Our ability to gain market share even during challenging times demonstrates the quality of our teams and the impact of our strategic investments in the highest growth sectors in commercial real estate.

我們即使在充滿挑戰的時期也能獲得市場份額，這證明了我們團隊的素質以及我們在商業房地產增長最快的領域的戰略投資的影響。

These notable highlights were accomplished while further strengthening our balance sheet, putting us in an excellent position to take advantage of future growth opportunities. Our industry remains relatively fragmented in many markets, and times of volatility provide the opportunity to add depth to our global capabilities at attractive returns.

這些顯著亮點是在進一步加強我們的資產負債表的同時實現的，使我們處於利用未來增長機會的絕佳位置。我們的行業在許多市場中仍然相對分散，動盪時期提供了機會以有吸引力的回報來增加我們的全球能力。

Now I want to turn to 2023 and how the year might progress. We enter the year having experienced a significant downward shift in transactional momentum experienced in our fourth quarter results. Capital sat on the sidelines during the fourth quarter and is likely to remain there in early 2023.

現在我想談談 2023 年以及這一年的進展情況。進入今年以來，我們在第四季度業績中經歷了交易勢頭的顯著下降。資本在第四季度處於觀望狀態，並可能在 2023 年初保持觀望。

In Leasing, the shifting macroeconomic resulted in lower overall activity across most asset classes. However, long-term commercial real estate fundamentals remain strongly intact. There is significant dry powder available for deployment, but market participants crave greater clarity on interest rate trajectory in order to facilitate price discovery.

在租賃方面，不斷變化的宏觀經濟導致大多數資產類別的整體活動減少。然而，長期商業房地產基本面仍然完好無損。有大量幹火藥可供部署，但市場參與者渴望利率軌跡更加清晰，以促進價格發現。

We believe that economic green shoots, such as continued moderation in inflationary data and a clearer path for those critical interest rate policies, could appear relatively soon.

我們認為，經濟復甦的萌芽，例如通脹數據的持續放緩以及那些關鍵利率政策的更清晰路徑，可能會相對較快出現。

Whilst the leasing market is likely to remain under pressure in the short term, we anticipate demand for higher-quality assets and locations to remain strong. In addition, we expect that over the next few years, an elevated level of expiring leases, roughly 300 million square feet per annum, on par with levels observed in 2021 and 2022, will keep the office leasing market relatively active.

雖然短期內租賃市場可能繼續承壓，但我們預計對更高質量資產和位置的需求將保持強勁。此外，我們預計在未來幾年內，到期租約的增加（每年約 3 億平方英尺）與 2021 年和 2022 年的水平持平，將使寫字樓租賃市場保持相對活躍。

We also continue to feel confident in the scale of opportunity and the capabilities we have built in other fast-growing asset classes. We expect continued positive absorption trends in industrial leasing in 2023, with employment in the industrial labor market over 1.3 million jobs higher than pre-pandemic levels. And with e-commerce, third-party logistics and global reshoring trends continuing to grow.

我們也繼續對機會的規模和我們在其他快速增長的資產類別中建立的能力充滿信心。我們預計 2023 年工業租賃將繼續保持積極的吸納趨勢，工業勞動力市場的就業人數將超過 130 萬個，高於大流行前的水平。隨著電子商務、第三方物流和全球回流趨勢的持續增長。

Our near-term transactional market caution does not apply to our large recurring revenue service lines. In the fourth quarter of 2022, our PM and FM businesses grew strongly, up 8% versus prior year, with solid growth across all segments of that business.

我們的近期交易市場謹慎不適用於我們的大型經常性收入服務線。 2022 年第四季度，我們的 PM 和 FM 業務增長強勁，同比增長 8%，該業務的所有部門都實現了穩健增長。

In particular, our project management business had a strong year as we helped our clients reconfigure and redesign space, most notably in life sciences. We expect the positive momentum in our recurring revenue business lines to continue in 2023, demonstrating the power of our long-term diversification strategy.

特別是，我們的項目管理業務在這一年表現強勁，因為我們幫助客戶重新配置和重新設計空間，尤其是在生命科學領域。我們預計我們的經常性收入業務線的積極勢頭將在 2023 年繼續，展示我們長期多元化戰略的力量。

Looking across our large global platform, I can give some additional color on where we believe market tailwinds will occur in 2023. We have a leading presence in Greater China. With COVID-related restrictions now eased after a substantial term of muted activity, we are expecting a solid recovery this year. In addition, we expect the fast-growing Indian economy continue to expand as the property market matures.

縱觀我們龐大的全球平台，我可以就我們認為 2023 年市場順風出現的地方給出一些額外的顏色。我們在大中華區擁有領先地位。在經歷了長時間的低迷活動後，現在放寬了與 COVID 相關的限制，我們預計今年會出現穩健的複蘇。此外，我們預計隨著房地產市場的成熟，快速增長的印度經濟將繼續擴張。

In Europe, challenges such as the Russia-Ukraine conflict resulted in difficult operating environment in 2022, especially towards the end of the year. Looking forward, we are seeing somewhat better inflation data points in Europe, and we believe that ESG drivers and a flight to quality could provide some resilience in the leasing markets as the year progresses. We have a world-class team in Europe that was able to successfully navigate 2022's challenges, and we are confident in their ability to continue to execute.

在歐洲，俄羅斯與烏克蘭衝突等挑戰導致 2022 年的經營環境艱難，尤其是在接近年底的時候。展望未來，我們看到歐洲的通脹數據有所好轉，我們相信 ESG 驅動因素和對質量的追求可能會隨著時間的推移為租賃市場提供一定的彈性。我們在歐洲擁有一支世界一流的團隊，能夠成功應對 2022 年的挑戰，我們對他們繼續執行的能力充滿信心。

We have high conviction on our long-term strategy and in the results of our investment in targeted growth areas, designed to drive long-term shareholder value. Our clients come to us for our exceptional expertise, our unrivaled focus on meeting their needs and our commitment to creating value in every engagement, and they will continue to rely on us to navigate this complex landscape that we all face.

我們對我們的長期戰略和我們在目標增長領域的投資結果充滿信心，旨在推動長期股東價值。我們的客戶因我們卓越的專業知識、我們對滿足他們需求的無與倫比的專注以及我們在每次參與中創造價值的承諾而來到我們這裡，他們將繼續依靠我們來駕馭我們都面臨的複雜環境。

In our day-to-day operations, everything we do is built around our 4 strategic pillars: client centricity, relentless operating excellence, being a leading people and talent platform, and increasingly leveraging our data with analytics that provide unique insight and value.

在我們的日常運營中，我們所做的一切都圍繞著我們的 4 個戰略支柱：以客戶為中心、堅持不懈的卓越運營、成為領先的人才和人才平台，以及越來越多地利用我們的數據和提供獨特洞察力和價值的分析。

We are focused on exciting growth sectors with a complete suite of services and solutions to both owner and occupier clients around the world. We're building market-leading platforms in these secular growth areas as we continue to transform our business by operating efficiently and at scale, all while maintaining a focus on our client-first culture and commitment to diversity, equity and inclusion. We have a well-balanced business model, and the foundational work we have put in place over the past several years positioned us for success in 2022.

我們專注於令人興奮的增長領域，為全球業主和租戶客戶提供一整套服務和解決方案。我們正在這些長期增長領域建立市場領先的平台，同時我們繼續通過高效和大規模運營來轉變我們的業務，同時保持對我們客戶至上文化的關注以及對多元化、公平和包容的承諾。我們有一個平衡的商業模式，我們在過去幾年中所做的基礎工作使我們在 2022 年取得成功。

Given the current economic backdrop, we are being prudent in our investment and capital allocation decisions, prioritizing long-term growth areas, managing our cost base in order to drive further operating efficiencies, which Neil will touch on in more detail in a moment, and positioning the business to emerge out of the current environment, firing on all cylinders.

鑑於當前的經濟背景，我們在投資和資本配置決策上保持審慎，優先考慮長期增長領域，管理我們的成本基礎以進一步提高運營效率，Neil 稍後將詳細介紹這一點，以及定位業務以擺脫當前環境，全力以赴。

We have an experienced management team that has led through previous economic cycles, and that knowledge base is invaluable. We also have exceptional leaders and employees around the world, [proven] in the execution of our business priorities. We have the platform, the people and the expertise to continue taking market share and delivering value to our clients and shareholders.

我們擁有一支經驗豐富的管理團隊，他們在以往的經濟周期中處於領先地位，這個知識庫非常寶貴。我們在世界各地也有傑出的領導者和員工，他們在執行我們的業務優先事項方面 [證明]。我們擁有平台、人員和專業知識，可以繼續佔據市場份額並為我們的客戶和股東創造價值。

And with that, I'd like to turn the call over to Neil to discuss in more detail our financial performance. Neil?

有了這個，我想把電話轉給尼爾來更詳細地討論我們的財務業績。尼爾？

Thank you, John, and good afternoon, everyone.

謝謝約翰，大家下午好。

For the full year, we generated fee revenue of $7.2 billion, an increase of 8% over the prior year, and adjusted EBITDA of $899 million, an increase of 4% over the prior year. Contributions from PM/FM and leasing growth as well as our Greystone joint venture were largely offset by lower capital market activity COVID-related restrictions in China, FX headwinds and higher commission expense.

全年，我們產生了 72 億美元的手續費收入，比上年增長 8%，調整後的 EBITDA 為 8.99 億美元，比上年增長 4%。 PM/FM 和租賃增長以及我們的 Greystone 合資企業的貢獻在很大程度上被中國較低的資本市場活動 COVID 相關限制、外匯逆風和較高的佣金費用所抵消。

Adjusted EBITDA margins were 12.4%, a decline of 46 basis points versus 2021, which was generally in line with our expectations and guidance. Adjusted earnings per share for the year was $2, a decrease of 2% versus prior year.

調整後的 EBITDA 利潤率為 12.4%，與 2021 年相比下降了 46 個基點，這與我們的預期和指引基本一致。全年調整後每股收益為 2 美元，較上年下降 2%。

Looking at our fee revenue by service line. For the full year, PM/FM revenues grew 12%, primarily driven by Project and Facilities Management activity. We were especially pleased with the performance of our PM/FM business and the strong growth in our recurring revenues.

按服務線查看我們的費用收入。全年，PM/FM 收入增長 12%，主要受項目和設施管理活動的推動。我們對 PM/FM 業務的表現以及經常性收入的強勁增長感到特別滿意。

Leasing fee revenue grew 15% in 2022, driven by a steady recovery in the office sector throughout most of the year and continued solid performance in the industrial sector. Capital Markets decreased 10% versus a record setting 2021.

租賃費收入在 2022 年增長了 15%，這得益於全年大部分時間寫字樓行業的穩步復甦以及工業領域的持續穩健表現。與創紀錄的 2021 年相比，資本市場下降了 10%。

Turning to the fourth quarter. Fee revenue of $1.9 billion declined 14% versus prior year. The decline in fee revenue reflects lower brokerage activity, which was most profound in Capital Markets as investors remained on the sidelines.

轉到第四季度。費用收入為 19 億美元，較上年下降 14%。手續費收入的下降反映了經紀活動的減少，這在資本市場中最為明顯，因為投資者仍在觀望。

Fourth quarter adjusted EBITDA of $220 million declined 35% versus a record prior-year comparison. The decline in adjusted EBITDA was principally driven by the lower brokerage activity and COVID-related restrictions in China, which continued to adversely impact our results in APAC. Adjusted earnings per share for the quarter was $0.46, a decrease of 51% versus prior year.

第四季度調整後的 EBITDA 為 2.2 億美元，與創紀錄的去年同期相比下降了 35%。調整後 EBITDA 的下降主要是由於中國經紀活動減少和與 COVID 相關的限制，這繼續對我們在亞太地區的業績產生不利影響。本季度調整後每股收益為 0.46 美元，較上年同期下降 51%。

Moving to our fee revenue by service line. For the fourth quarter, performance across our entire PM/FM service offering was strong, particularly in our Project and Facilities Management businesses, with PM/FM in total up 8%. Capital Markets fee revenue declined 52% in the fourth quarter, with all segments declining versus a record-setting fourth quarter of 2021. Leasing revenue decreased 10% versus the prior year.

按服務線轉移到我們的費用收入。第四季度，我們整個 PM/FM 服務產品的表現都很強勁，尤其是在我們的項目和設施管理業務中，PM/FM 總計增長了 8%。資本市場費用收入在第四季度下降了 52%，與創紀錄的 2021 年第四季度相比，所有部門都出現了下降。租賃收入比上年下降了 10%。

Despite continued labor market strength, many office occupiers tempered decision-making during the fourth quarter while waiting for increased macroeconomic clarity. In the industrial and logistics sector, while absorption was down sequentially, the fourth quarter still marked the ninth straight quarter in which absorption surpassed the 100 million square foot mark. Valuation and Other declined 10% in the fourth quarter as a result of lower activity in our Valuation business.

儘管勞動力市場持續走強，但許多寫字樓租戶在第四季度調整了決策，同時等待宏觀經濟更加明朗。在工業和物流領域，雖然吸納量環比下降，但第四季度仍然是吸納量連續第九個季度超過 1 億平方英尺大關。由於我們的估值業務活動減少，估值和其他業務在第四季度下降了 10%。

Turning to our segment results for the quarter. Americas fee revenue declined 18% year-over-year, with strong 6% growth in PM/FM more than offset by a 9% decline in Leasing and a 54% in Capital Markets. Adjusted EBITDA of $163 million decreased $88 million versus prior year, principally driven by the lower brokerage activity and partially offset by the positive contribution from our Greystone joint venture.

轉向我們本季度的分部業績。美洲費用收入同比下降 18%，PM/FM 6% 的強勁增長被租賃 9% 的下降和資本市場 54% 的下降所抵消。調整後的 EBITDA 為 1.63 億美元，比上年減少 8800 萬美元，這主要是由於經紀活動減少，部分被我們 Greystone 合資企業的積極貢獻所抵消。

In EMEA, fee revenue declined 11%, with PM/FM up 6%, Leasing down 11% and Capital Markets declining 41% versus a challenging prior-year comparison. Adjusted EBITDA of $29 million declined $26 million versus prior year, primarily driven by lower brokerage activity.

在歐洲、中東和非洲地區，費用收入下降 11%，PM/FM 增長 6%，租賃下降 11%，資本市場下降 41%，與去年相比具有挑戰性。調整後的 EBITDA 為 2900 萬美元，與上一年相比下降了 2600 萬美元，這主要是由於經紀活動減少所致。

In Asia Pacific, fee revenue growth of 2% was driven by the performance of our PM/FM service line, which grew 19% for the quarter. Partially offsetting this growth were declines in Leasing and Capital Markets, which declined 16% and 38% versus prior year, respectively. The declines were most pronounced in China as a result of COVID-related restrictions. Adjusted EBITDA of $27 million was down $14 million versus the prior year, driven by the declines in China.

在亞太地區，我們的 PM/FM 服務線的表現推動了 2% 的手續費收入增長，該服務線在本季度增長了 19%。部分抵消了這一增長的是租賃和資本市場的下滑，分別比上一年下降了 16% 和 38%。由於與 COVID 相關的限制，中國的下降最為明顯。調整後的 EBITDA 為 2700 萬美元，較上年下降 1400 萬美元，主要受中國業務下滑的推動。

Moving to our balance sheet. Our financial position remains strong. We ended 2022 with $1.7 billion of liquidity, consisting of cash on hand of $645 million and availability on our revolving credit facility of $1.1 billion. We had no outstanding borrowings on our revolver, and net leverage was 2.9x at the end of the fourth quarter.

轉到我們的資產負債表。我們的財務狀況依然強勁。到 2022 年底，我們的流動資金為 17 億美元，其中包括手頭現金 6.45 億美元和可用的循環信貸額度 11 億美元。我們的循環貸款沒有未償還的借款，第四季度末的淨槓桿率為 2.9 倍。

Subsequent to the fourth quarter, we amended a portion of our senior secured term loan, extending the maturity date of $1 billion of the $2.6 billion outstanding to January 31, 2030.

第四季度之後，我們修改了部分高級有擔保定期貸款，將未償還的 26 億美元中的 10 億美元的到期日延長至 2030 年 1 月 31 日。

Our goals with this refinancing were to extend the maturity of our debt profile while also increasing the flexibility of our balance sheet by spacing out our maturities. We achieved both of these goals with outstanding execution on the deal. Our new maturity profile, coupled with our ample liquidity, puts us in an excellent position to pursue our long-term strategic priorities.

我們這次再融資的目標是延長我們債務狀況的期限，同時通過間隔我們的期限來增加我們資產負債表的靈活性。我們以出色的交易執行力實現了這兩個目標。我們新的成熟度組合，加上充足的流動性，使我們處於追求長期戰略重點的絕佳位置。

Now moving to 2023. Given the current macroeconomic uncertainty, combined with the typical second half seasonality in our business, it is unrealistic for us to provide specific guidance at this time for the full year. However, I would like to provide some high-level insight as to how we're thinking about the business this year and what we are planning for as a result.

現在轉到 2023 年。鑑於當前宏觀經濟的不確定性，再加上我們業務的典型下半年季節性，我們此時提供全年的具體指導是不現實的。但是，我想提供一些關於我們如何考慮今年的業務以及我們因此計劃做什麼的高層次見解。

Our recurring revenue PM/FM business is well positioned in the current environment to provide stability, and we expect it to generate low to mid-single-digit revenue growth in 2023. In brokerage, we anticipate the environment to remain challenging in the first half of 2023, with brokerage declines similar to Q4 of 2022.

我們的經常性收入 PM/FM 業務在當前環境中處於有利位置以提供穩定性，我們預計它在 2023 年將產生中低個位數的收入增長。在經紀業務方面，我們預計上半年環境仍將充滿挑戰2023 年，經紀業務下降幅度與 2022 年第四季度相似。

We do anticipate sequential improvement in the year-over-year brokerage trends throughout the course of the year, with the timing and strength of these improvements depending on many factors, including the path of price discovery in Capital Markets and more clarity on occupier decision-making.

我們確實預計全年經紀業務趨勢將出現連續改善，這些改善的時機和強度取決於許多因素，包括資本市場的價格發現路徑和租戶決策的更清晰度-製作。

In addition, we expect that Leasing declines will be less pronounced than Capital Market declines. We will provide an update on our expectations as clarity in the market improves.

此外，我們預計租賃業務的下滑幅度將小於資本市場的下滑幅度。隨著市場清晰度的提高，我們將更新我們的預期。

Looking specifically at costs. As a reminder, on average, about 45% of our costs are variable, 40% are semi-variable and roughly 15% of fixed. Cost profiles vary by service line, but generally, we would expect decremental margins of roughly 40% to 50% in brokerage and incremental margins of 10% to 20% in PM/FM. As a result, the anticipated declines in brokerage during 2023 will result in overall margin pressure, which will reverse as brokerage recovers.

具體看成本。提醒一下，平均而言，我們約有 45% 的成本是可變的，40% 是半可變的，大約 15% 是固定的。成本概況因服務線而異，但一般而言，我們預計經紀業務的利潤率下降約 40% 至 50%，而 PM/FM 的利潤率增加 10% 至 20%。因此，2023 年經紀業務的預期下降將導致整體利潤率壓力，隨著經紀業務的複蘇，這種壓力將會逆轉。

As stated on our third quarter earnings call, in the back half of 2022, our teams identified specific actions to drive further operating efficiencies. We have already begun executing on these initiatives and anticipate achieving $90 million of cost savings in 2023.

正如我們在第三季度財報電話會議上所述，在 2022 年下半年，我們的團隊確定了具體行動以進一步提高運營效率。我們已經開始執行這些舉措，並預計在 2023 年實現 9000 萬美元的成本節約。

We expect these cost savings to more than offset any inflation in our semi-variable and fixed cost base. However, they will not completely offset the temporary margin contraction from the anticipated brokerage revenue decline as we believe it's important to maintain a strong position to grow share in the recovery.

我們希望這些成本節省能夠抵消我們半可變和固定成本基礎中的任何通貨膨脹。然而，它們不會完全抵消預期經紀收入下降導致的暫時利潤率收縮，因為我們認為保持強勢地位以增加複蘇中的份額非常重要。

Given these expectations for the year, particularly as it relates to brokerage revenue, we expect that the phasing of our EBITDA contribution will be more back-end weighted to second half of the year, similar to what we experienced in 2021.

鑑於對今年的這些預期，尤其是與經紀收入相關的預期，我們預計我們的 EBITDA 貢獻的階段將更多地集中在今年下半年，這與我們在 2021 年的經歷類似。

In summary, I'd like to leave you with the following. Although we are currently experiencing short-term macroeconomic headwinds, long-term commercial real estate fundamentals remain strong. We have developed a rigorous approach to scenario planning and cost management over the years, and that focus and discipline continues in 2023.

總之，我想給你留下以下內容。儘管我們目前正經歷短期宏觀經濟逆風，但長期商業地產基本面依然強勁。多年來，我們已經制定了一套嚴格的方案規劃和成本管理方法，這種重點和紀律將在 2023 年繼續保持。

And finally, through active balance sheet management, targeted cost actions and strategic investments, we are in a position of strength, both for the anticipated recovery in brokerage and the continued growth in our recurring revenue businesses.

最後，通過積極的資產負債表管理、有針對性的成本行動和戰略投資，我們在經紀業務的預期復蘇和經常性收入業務的持續增長方面處於有利地位。

With that, I'll turn the call back to the operator for the Q&A portion of today's call.

有了這個，我將把今天電話的問答部分的電話轉回給接線員。

(Operator Instructions) Our first question comes from Anthony Paolone with JPMorgan.

（操作員說明）我們的第一個問題來自摩根大通的 Anthony Paolone。

I guess, first question, I just want to understand the comments in the slide deck around brokerage declines in the first half. And so if I think about the fourth quarter, like Capital Markets was down, I think, 53%. So should we take that as your view of what the first half of '23 will also be down in terms of order of magnitude? And I guess, same for lease...

我想，第一個問題，我只想了解幻燈片中關於上半年經紀業務下降的評論。因此，如果我考慮第四季度，我認為資本市場下跌了 53%。那麼，我們是否應該將其視為您對 23 年上半年的數量級下降的看法？我想，同樣的租賃...

Yes, sure. Tony, at this point, very difficult to project what's going to happen, even through the second quarter. But the point is we have planned and done scenario planning and looked at the year. We believe that, that sort of range for Capital Markets and that sort of range for Leasing is what we're planning for the first half.

是的，當然。托尼，在這一點上，很難預測會發生什麼，即使是在第二季度。但關鍵是我們已經計劃並完成了情景規劃，並回顧了這一年。我們相信，資本市場的這種範圍和租賃的那種範圍是我們上半年的計劃。

We are expecting sequential improvements each quarter, and so we expect that to improve, especially in the back half of the year.

我們預計每個季度都會有所改善，因此我們預計這種情況會有所改善，尤其是在今年下半年。

Okay. And then for PM/FM, you did 8% growth, I think, in the fourth quarter, and you said low mid-single digits. Is that -- I know you have a large janitorial business, and so I was wondering if you could just break out sort of the growth embedded within that number. Is that -- is janitorial kind of in that same ballpark, or is that bringing it down a bit? Just wondering, how the core trends in that are working?

好的。然後對於 PM/FM，你在第四季度實現了 8% 的增長，你說的是中低個位數。那是——我知道你有一個很大的清潔業務，所以我想知道你是否可以打破這個數字中嵌入的某種增長。那是 - 是在同一個球場上的清潔工，還是讓它下降了一點？只是想知道，其中的核心趨勢是如何運作的？

Tony, this is John. Yes, I'd look at the PM/FM as a whole. There's no real specific difference in the short-term dynamics between each of the sector service lines that make up that bucket of revenue. What we've seen is a very strong 2022. As I said in the prepared remarks, we had a really outstanding year in some of the very large contracts that we brought on.

托尼，這是約翰。是的，我會把 PM/FM 作為一個整體來看待。構成這一收入桶的每個部門服務線之間的短期動態沒有真正的具體差異。我們看到的是非常強勁的 2022 年。正如我在準備好的發言中所說，我們在簽訂的一些非常大的合同中度過了非常出色的一年。

So therefore, I guide that you think about that business more of over a period of 2 to 3 years, driving that type of average growth, as opposed to, say, last year being a blowout year, followed by a more muted one. That's not how we see that business because contracts come on, they get integrated and then we go through the sales cycle again.

因此，我建議你在 2 到 3 年的時間裡更多地考慮這項業務，推動這種平均增長，而不是說，去年是井噴的一年，隨後是一個更加溫和的一年。這不是我們看待該業務的方式，因為合同簽訂，它們被整合，然後我們再次經歷銷售週期。

But ultimately, I can point to a pipeline, particularly in our outsourcing business, which is growing very, very substantially year-over-year, and it makes us feel very good about the continued strong growth.

但最終，我可以指出一個管道，特別是在我們的外包業務中，它的同比增長非常非常可觀，這讓我們對持續強勁的增長感到非常滿意。

Okay. Can I ask one last one, since I think we have Kevin on? Just any view on where office market vacancy rates should ultimately settle out, once leases are cycled through and sort of the new world for space use is kind of dialed into people's footprints?

好的。我可以問最後一個嗎，因為我認為我們有凱文？關於寫字樓市場空置率最終應該在哪裡解決的任何觀點，一旦租約循環通過，空間使用的新世界就會進入人們的足跡？

Yes. Sure. I appreciate the question. Just, I guess, a couple of points, and then I'll lay out the forecast.

是的。當然。我很欣賞這個問題。只是，我想，有幾點，然後我會列出預測。

So I think just in thinking about the office sector, the outlook, I think it's really important to recognize that office demand last year was beginning to stabilize. We just sort of focused on the U.S. U.S. net absorption started to [float] with positive territory in the first half of last year, and in fact, 1/3 of the markets that we track were starting to absorb space again.

因此，我認為僅考慮寫字樓行業的前景，我認為認識到去年寫字樓需求開始穩定是非常重要的。我們只是關注美國。去年上半年，美國的淨吸納量開始 [浮動] 正區域，事實上，我們追踪的市場中有 1/3 再次開始吸納空間。

Even with remote work, we were seeing all these green shoots, stronger demand for space. Return to office was trending higher, not what it was pre-pandemic, but trending higher, lease duration starting to normalize back to pre-pandemic levels.

即使是遠程工作，我們也看到了所有這些萌芽，對空間的更強烈需求。重返辦公室呈上升趨勢，不是大流行前的趨勢，而是呈上升趨勢，租期開始正常化，回到大流行前的水平。

So from my perspective, these green shoots were kind of confirming our thesis that you'd actually sort of job -- the relationship between job growth and demand for space would reestablish itself. It started to do that, but now when we look into this year, right, the baseline, we're anticipating a mild recession risk or high, potentially mild recession. And typically, during periods like this, businesses do look for ways to cut cost and get more efficient with headcount and space. That's just sort of the recession playbook.

所以從我的角度來看，這些萌芽在某種程度上證實了我們的論點，即你實際上會找到一份工作——工作增長與空間需求之間的關係將重新建立起來。它開始這樣做了，但現在當我們回顧今年時，對，基線，我們預計會有溫和的衰退風險或高的、可能溫和的衰退。通常，在這樣的時期，企業確實會尋找降低成本並提高員工人數和空間效率的方法。這只是經濟衰退的劇本。

Will that actually happen in this cycle? Certainly seeing it in spots, the tech sector, for example. But will that be a trend across the board? I think that's really hard to say. I think it's really worth noting that businesses have already gotten a lot more efficient with their space since the pandemic started. And if the mild recession is truly mild, that may not translate into significant job losses.

這真的會在這個週期中發生嗎？當然可以在某些地方看到它，例如科技行業。但這會成為全面的趨勢嗎？我覺得這真的很難說。我認為真正值得注意的是，自大流行病開始以來，企業的空間利用效率已經大大提高。如果溫和的衰退真的很溫和，那可能不會轉化為大量失業。

And I think we also mentioned in the prepared remarks that demand for space is somewhat inelastic, right? So businesses need space to operate their business, and there's always a regular churn in leasing. And what we're tracking is a significant number of leases expiring over the next couple of years.

而且我想我們在準備好的評論中也提到了對空間的需求有點缺乏彈性，對吧？因此，企業需要空間來開展業務，而租賃總是有規律的變動。我們正在追踪的是未來幾年將到期的大量租約。

So baseline outlook for office vacancy is 18.2% in the U.S. We have that trending to 20% through the recession, and then stabilizing and trending lower from that point forward.

因此，美國寫字樓空置率的基線前景為 18.2%。在經濟衰退期間，這一趨勢趨向於 20%，然後從那時起趨於穩定並呈下降趨勢。

Our next question comes from Chandni Luthra with Goldman Sachs.

我們的下一個問題來自高盛的 Chandni Luthra。

This is Chandni Luthra from Goldman. I'd like to talk about the $90 million cost savings that you talked about briefly. What are the areas that you're targeting? What are the temporary actions in there? And what are those segments that's going to be most impacted with these actions?

我是高盛的 Chandni Luthra。我想談談您簡要談到的 9000 萬美元的成本節約。您的目標領域是什麼？裡面有哪些臨時動作？受這些行動影響最大的細分市場是什麼？

Sure, Chandni. The majority of those costs are permanent costs, and they're focused around efficiency. So rather than just going in and either just doing temporary cuts or randomly taking up cost, we've been very, very focused to make sure that the business stays strong and we continue to drive our efficiency.

當然，錢德尼。這些成本中的大部分是永久性成本，它們關注的是效率。因此，我們不是僅僅進入並只是臨時削減或隨機承擔成本，而是非常非常專注於確保業務保持強勁並繼續提高效率。

Remember, we -- this efficiency journey has been a 3-year journey, and so this is just a continuation of that. And it really spans all costs of all geographies.

請記住，我們——這個效率之旅已經進行了 3 年，所以這只是它的延續。它確實涵蓋了所有地區的所有成本。

One thing I'd add, Chandni, is that intuitively, of course, you would be focused on taking cost out of that part of your business, which is going through a low volume period. Well, interestingly, of course, the brokerage business is actually a very light cost business. .

Chandni，我要補充的一件事是，從直覺上講，當然，您會專注於從業務的那一部分中降低成本，這部分業務正處於低產量時期。嗯，有趣的是，當然，經紀業務實際上是一個成本很低的業務。 .

And if you were going to drive very substantial cost savings to try to cover all the decrement of revenue falls in transactions, you'd actually have to cut hard into the infrastructure that's driving the growth on the services side. That will be the case for all organizations like us with a diversified model.

如果你要推動非常可觀的成本節約以試圖彌補交易中收入下降的所有減少，你實際上必須大力削減推動服務方面增長的基礎設施。對於像我們這樣擁有多元化模式的所有組織來說都是如此。

So the key for us is to ensure that we focus on stripping out, say, inflation that's coming through from our own service suppliers and in the work that we do, and allow ourselves to maintain a world-class workforce so that we come out, as I said in the prepared remarks, firing on all cylinders because we do believe the fundamentals are absolutely in place for a strong recovery at some point.

因此，對我們來說，關鍵是要確保我們專注於消除例如來自我們自己的服務供應商和我們所做工作的通貨膨脹，並讓我們自己保持世界一流的勞動力，這樣我們就能脫穎而出，正如我在準備好的發言中所說，開足馬力是因為我們確實相信基本面已經完全到位，可以在某個時候實現強勁復甦。

Got it. And as a follow-up, I'd like to talk about leverage a little bit. How do you think about your leverage target in 2023? Where do you think leverage is going to track? Is there going to be some cadence that we should think about?

知道了。作為後續行動，我想談談槓桿作用。您如何看待2023年的槓桿目標？您認為槓桿將走向何方？我們應該考慮一些節奏嗎？

And then as a follow-up, within that, you obviously recently amended a portion of your term loan. Could you discuss how we should think about your interest expense in 2023?

然後作為後續行動，您顯然最近修改了一部分定期貸款。你能談談我們應該如何考慮你在 2023 年的利息支出嗎？

Sure. So Chandni, let me unpack that a little bit.

當然。所以 Chandni，讓我把它拆開一點。

If we look just at leverage, our long-term target remains intact. Our leverage over the long run is to be in that 2x to 3x range. We ended the year at 2.9x, so well within that range. Going in '23 with an expected decline in EBITDA, you will see that leverage temporarily moved up, but I think what's much more important is liquidity. We have over $1.7 billion of liquidity, so we feel like we're in a very strong position from both a leverage and liquidity standpoint.

如果我們只看槓桿，我們的長期目標保持不變。從長遠來看，我們的槓桿作用是在 2 到 3 倍的範圍內。我們以 2.9 倍結束了這一年，正好在這個範圍內。進入 23 年，EBITDA 預計會下降，您會看到槓桿率暫時上升，但我認為更重要的是流動性。我們擁有超過 17 億美元的流動性，因此我們覺得從槓桿和流動性的角度來看我們都處於非常有利的地位。

In terms of the -- extending the Term Loan B, we just saw a unique opportunity in the market as we came into the year. We've got a -- we had a $2.6 billion Term Loan B that's expiring in '25, and so we have time. But coming into the year, we saw spreads move in, and we saw a lot of demand for our paper.

就延長定期貸款 B 而言，我們剛剛在進入這一年時看到了市場上的一個獨特機會。我們有一個 - 我們有 26 億美元的定期貸款 B，將於 25 年到期，所以我們有時間。但進入這一年，我們看到價差開始上升，我們看到對我們的紙張有大量需求。

And so we had a very successful transaction, where we just pushed out $1 billion to 2030. The goal there was really just to space out our maturities and give us a very flexible balance sheet, really, to strengthen our balance sheet overall.

因此，我們進行了一次非常成功的交易，我們剛剛將 10 億美元推到了 2030 年。我們的目標實際上只是延長我們的期限，並為我們提供一個非常靈活的資產負債表，實際上是為了加強我們的整體資產負債表。

In terms of interest rate cost, the increase from that was very small, 50 basis points, so less than $5 million. So that's very cost effective in terms of the transaction itself. However, we will see interest go up slightly in 2023 just because of [SOFR] increasing. But I would remind you that about 80% of our debt on a net basis is fixed. So that does provide -- that does reduce the impact of floating rate debt moving.

就利率成本而言，增加的幅度很小，只有 50 個基點，不到 500 萬美元。因此，就交易本身而言，這是非常划算的。但是，由於 [SOFR] 增加，我們將看到 2023 年的興趣略有上升。但我要提醒您，按淨額計算，我們大約 80% 的債務是固定的。所以這確實提供了 - 這確實減少了浮動利率債務轉移的影響。

Our next question comes from Stephen Sheldon with William Blair.

我們的下一個問題來自斯蒂芬謝爾頓和威廉布萊爾。

This is Pat McIlwee on for Stephen. So as a follow-up to Anthony's question and John's response to it, it sounds like everything is going well in the PM/FM business. .

這是 Pat McIlwee 替 Stephen 做的。因此，作為對 Anthony 的問題和 John 的回應的後續行動，聽起來 PM/FM 業務的一切進展順利。 .

And I understand it's a pretty unique operating environment, but given the guidance, is there some conservatism baked in there? Or what factors were you considering when building that after what was a pretty strong quarter and year for that business here?

我知道這是一個非常獨特的操作環境，但在指導下，是否存在一些保守主義？或者，在該業務的季度和年度表現強勁之後，您在構建它時考慮了哪些因素？

It's actually something that we think about a lot. We are, by nature, in a conservative guidance, particularly in an environment like this. And a lot of our -- the growth that comes through in the PM/FM business is based on wins and contract changes in a given year.

這實際上是我們經常考慮的事情。從本質上講，我們處於保守的指導下，尤其是在這樣的環境中。我們的很多 - PM / FM 業務的增長是基於特定年份的勝利和合同變化。

So sitting here in January, yes, we've got a very strong pipeline. We feel good about our ability to retain and win business. But ultimately, the success rate within that retention and renewal will make the difference of 100 to 200 basis points here or there.

所以一月份坐在這裡，是的，我們有一個非常強大的管道。我們對自己保留和贏得業務的能力感到滿意。但最終，保留和更新的成功率將在這里或那裡產生 100 到 200 個基點的差異。

So we -- the guidance we've given, we feel very positive that we will achieve more than that will be because we do continue to take market share, but it's based on the availability of contracts at a given time and when they are onboarded.

所以我們 - 我們給出的指導，我們感到非常積極，我們將取得比這更多的成就，因為我們確實繼續佔據市場份額，但它基於合同在給定時間和他們入職時的可用性.

Just to give you an idea, in particularly the global outsourcing markets, the pursuit of a contract in a bidout or renewal can be as long as 18 months. So really, we are bidding on contracts today that won't show up as revenue until potentially at the back end of 2024. Others are on a much shorter timeline and could how up as soon as Q2, so that's just really where we give caution to that guidance number at the beginning of the financial year.

只是給你一個想法，特別是在全球外包市場，在投標或續簽中尋求合同可能長達 18 個月。所以說真的，我們今天正在競標的合同可能要到 2024 年底才會顯示為收入。其他人的時間要短得多，最快可能會在第二季度出現，所以這正是我們給予警告的地方到財政年度開始時的指導數字。

Okay. And at a higher level, as the trends in returning to office seem to kind of plateau a bit and the future work looks a bit more hybrid in nature, can you just talk about how that impacts your longer-term outlook for both leasing and the PM/FM business? And also, is there anything you can share on your exposure to office properties in one or both of those business lines?

好的。在更高的層面上，由於重返辦公室的趨勢似乎有點停滯不前，未來的工作在本質上看起來更加混合，你能談談這對你對租賃和租賃的長期前景有何影響嗎？ PM/FM 業務？此外，關於您在其中一條或兩條業務線中對辦公物業的敞口，您有什麼可以分享的嗎？

Happy to. I'll talk about the office sectors with regards to how they show up within the organization and I'll pass over to Kevin, who -- as they have more ready data on the market as a whole.

高興。我將討論辦公部門如何在組織中出現，然後我將交給凱文，因為他們在整個市場上有更多現成的數據。

What we've seen, and I think this is typical of our peers, is the proportion of revenues derived from office activity right across the platform from transactions also within our PM/FM business, pre-pandemic compared to now, have been falling primarily as the size of the other asset classics has been growing.

我們所看到的，我認為這在我們的同行中是典型的，是來自整個平台的辦公活動收入的比例來自我們的 PM/FM 業務中的交易，大流行前與現在相比，主要是下降隨著其他資產經典的規模一直在增長。

So actually, our revenues are very strong, still, in office. But as a proportion, they've gone from a small majority, over 50%, to just below 50% over the last 12 months or so. And we expect that to continue to fall as portion, even though we may well see growth in our office-derived revenues over time.

所以實際上，我們的收入仍然非常強勁，仍然在辦公室。但就比例而言，在過去 12 個月左右的時間裡，他們已經從超過 50% 的少數人減少到略低於 50%。我們預計這部分收入將繼續下降，儘管隨著時間的推移，我們的辦公室收入可能會增長。

We've been successful in taking market share. We see opportunities to build and grow teams still in offices in markets, where we are underrepresented. We have very high-quality teams, who are maturing and growing our ability to penetrate and win.

我們已經成功地佔據了市場份額。我們看到了建立和發展團隊的機會，這些團隊仍在我們代表不足的市場的辦公室中。我們擁有非常高素質的團隊，他們正在成熟並提高我們的滲透和獲勝能力。

So I would just guide that the office will remain fundamentally a very large part of our portfolio, but ultimately become less the anchor over time, particularly as multifamily and industrial continue on their secular long-term growth.

因此，我只是指導辦公室從根本上仍將是我們投資組合的很大一部分，但隨著時間的推移最終會變得不那麼重要，特別是隨著多戶家庭和工業繼續長期增長。

Kevin, have you got any observations about actually the return to the office and the utilization?

凱文，你對實際返回辦公室和利用率有任何觀察嗎？

Yes. So if you kind of go back to January of last year, this is during the Omicron surge, roughly 18% of workers were at the office at any given day. I think I mentioned earlier, that's now hovering closer to 50%.

是的。因此，如果你回到去年 1 月，那是在 Omicron 激增期間，大約 18% 的員工在任何一天都在辦公室。我想我之前提到過，現在徘徊在接近 50%。

And if you do just back-of-the-envelope math on that, that indicates that there's roughly 9 million more people back at the office in the U.S. on any given day versus the same time a year ago. The pre-pandemic norm was closer to 70%. I'm not sure we'll ever get back to that point again.

而且，如果您對此進行粗略計算，則表明與一年前的同一時間相比，在任何一天美國都有大約 900 萬人回到辦公室。大流行前的標準接近 70%。我不確定我們是否會再次回到那個點。

But with a recession potentially imminent, with the pandemic seemingly staying, we are seeing more companies assert their desire to have people back in the office more regularly. I do think that's important to the office recovery. And I do expect the office attendance, the in-person attendance, to continue to drift higher.

但隨著經濟衰退可能迫在眉睫，大流行病似乎會持續下去，我們看到越來越多的公司表示希望讓人們更經常地回到辦公室。我確實認為這對辦公室恢復很重要。而且我確實希望辦公室出勤率、親自出勤率繼續上升。

And I would just add, even if we just say 50% is the new norm, [suppose] we assume that, businesses still need to accommodate for when there's going to be more than 50% in the office on any given day. And I think, in particular, the peak space needs for the days when you have the maximum number of employees in the office for teamwork and communication and so forth, that's ultimately going to drive demands for office space.

我只想補充一點，即使我們只是說 50% 是新常態，[假設] 我們假設，企業仍然需要適應任何一天辦公室裡超過 50% 的人。而且我認為，特別是當您在辦公室擁有最多員工進行團隊合作和溝通等時，峰值空間需求最終將推動對辦公空間的需求。

And so we do have occupier state, the amount of occupied space continuing to grow through the end of the decade, right? It's this point -- which means just the office leasing pie also grows. It's just going to be more concentrated in the higher-quality segment of the market.

所以我們確實有佔用者狀態，佔用空間的數量在本世紀末持續增長，對吧？正是這一點——這意味著辦公室租賃市場也在增長。它只會更加集中在市場的更高質量部分。

But hopefully, that answers your question.

但希望這能回答您的問題。

Our next question comes from Michael Griffin with Citi.

我們的下一個問題來自花旗的邁克爾格里芬。

Maybe switching to more of those non-traditional real estate asset class you got exposed to, I think, of lab office, I think of the growth in logistics. I know you've talked favorably about data centers in the past. I mean, how much across your existing business segments do you expect this to grow as sort of a percentage of the pie? And then any commentary about positive secular trends you're expecting in the near term would be helpful.

也許轉向更多你接觸過的非傳統房地產資產類別，我想，實驗室辦公室，我想到物流的增長。我知道您過去曾對數據中心贊不絕口。我的意思是，您希望在您現有的業務部門中有多少會增長？然後任何關於您預期在短期內積極的長期趨勢的評論都會有所幫助。

Okay. I'm probably going to toggle this with Kevin again, he will have the data to hand more specifically.

好的。我可能會再次與 Kevin 進行切換，他將擁有更具體的數據。

I'd make a couple of comments. I think -- and I'll bring in potentially the level of activity we're seeing from sectors in office. I think there's a lot been written and said in the last few weeks about the utilization of office, particularly by the tech sector, and the layoffs that we're seeing there and what's the impact of that on the office market.

我會發表一些評論。我認為 - 我會帶來我們從辦公室部門看到的潛在活動水平。我認為在過去的幾周里，有很多關於辦公室利用率的文章和言論，特別是科技行業的使用，以及我們在那裡看到的裁員，以及這對辦公室市場的影響。

What I would say there is throughout, I'm afraid, what has been a very long career, a lot of working in offices. I've seen -- there's always been a particularly driven sector engine that has driven the market. It was just before the Millennium 2000 financial services, particularly investment banking was driving a very large proportion of high-quality office uptake globally.

我要說的是，恐怕，這是一個很長的職業生涯，很多時候都是在辦公室工作。我已經看到 - 一直有一個特別驅動的行業引擎來推動市場。就在 Millennium 2000 之前，金融服務業，尤其是投資銀行業，在全球範圍內推動了很大一部分高質量辦公室的使用。

Professional services through and just after the GST became the big driving engine of office growth. And then we've seen technology, of course, over the last 10 years being that driver. There's always been a growth engine, and what we're seeing now actually is the diversification of use being the growth engine.

商品及服務稅之後的專業服務成為辦公室增長的主要驅動力。當然，在過去的 10 年裡，我們看到技術是推動力。一直有一個增長引擎，我們現在看到的實際上是使用多樣化成為增長引擎。

So ultimately, a lot of the absorption that we're seeing in the alternative classes like data centers, last-mile logistics, life sciences are -- is accommodation, which will ultimately have been offices in prior cycles. And they are strong, faster growth markets. If you can take our old revenues from life sciences this year with a 60% increase in revenue year-over-year, you got an idea of the rate of growth in the markets.

因此，最終，我們在數據中心、最後一英里物流、生命科學等替代類別中看到的很多吸收是住宿，在之前的周期中最終將成為辦公室。它們是強大、增長更快的市場。如果你能把我們今年來自生命科學的舊收入與去年同期相比增長 60%，你就會對市場的增長率有所了解。

They're going to be taking the place as the engine of growth of, say, technology. So overall, we still feel relatively positive about the office sector as a whole because there, as ever, has always been some drivers of demand growing and some becoming more muted within that.

他們將取代這個位置，成為技術增長的引擎。因此，總的來說，我們仍然對整個辦公部門感到相對樂觀，因為與以往一樣，需求增長的驅動因素一直存在，而其中一些驅動因素變得更加溫和。

But I'll pass over to Kevin now, who's probably got some far more accurate data.

但我現在將交給凱文，他可能有一些更準確的數據。

Yes, sure. So a couple of data points that I think might be helpful.

是的，當然。所以我認為有幾個數據點可能會有幫助。

So first, just on high-quality office. So since the pandemic started in the U.S., over 100 million square feet of space has been absorbed in the highest quality segment, newly-built sustainability features, prime location, positive absorption in that space.

所以首先，只是關於高質量的辦公室。因此，自從大流行在美國開始以來，超過 1 億平方英尺的空間被吸收到最高質量的部分、新建的可持續性特徵、黃金地段、積極吸收該空間。

And what's I think really interesting is there's -- in terms of the office stock in the United States, less than 10% of the inventory actually qualifies as the highest-quality product. So if you just think about that, what a massive opportunity to reposition office assets, right, sort of make -- move them up the relevancy curve. So that's office.

我認為真正有趣的是——就美國的辦公室存貨而言，只有不到 10% 的存貨實際上符合最高質量的產品標準。因此，如果您只是考慮一下，那麼重新定位辦公室資產的機會是多麼巨大，對吧，有點像——將它們提升到相關性曲線上。這就是辦公室。

Industrial logistics, I would say there's just -- there's no evidence so far that there's been any slowdown in demand trends, and I would say that globally. So in the U.S., as Neil mentioned in his remarks, very strong absorption in Q4, very low vacancy. In EMEA, same, very low vacancy rate, 3.5%. In Canada, actually, was a record quarter of absorption. Vacancy under 2% in Canada.

工業物流，我想說的是——到目前為止還沒有證據表明需求趨勢有任何放緩，我會在全球範圍內這麼說。所以在美國，正如尼爾在他的發言中提到的那樣，第四季度的吸納率非常高，空置率非常低。在歐洲、中東和非洲，同樣非常低的空置率，為 3.5%。實際上，在加拿大，吸收率創下了創紀錄的四分之一。加拿大的空缺率低於 2%。

I do think we have to be mindful of the recession and keep a close eye on the demand drivers, e-commerce, the state of the consumer and so forth, but the long term tailwinds are very strong for industrial logistics. Over time, e-commerce will continue to grow in the U.S. and globally, if more people shop online.

我確實認為我們必須注意經濟衰退並密切關注需求驅動因素、電子商務、消費者狀況等，但從長遠來看，工業物流的順風非常強勁。隨著時間的推移，如果有更多的人在線購物，電子商務將在美國和全球繼續增長。

Demand for last-mile space will remain fierce, given the sort of the push to get products to the people as quickly as possible, so the consumer spending pie will continue to grow. So there's a lot of reasons to be bullish longer term on industrial logistics, and certainly our investor clients are.

考慮到盡快將產品交付給人們的那種推動，對最後一英里空間的需求將保持旺盛，因此消費者支出餡餅將繼續增長。因此，有很多理由長期看好工業物流，當然我們的投資者客戶也是如此。

Retail has been a surprise. There's still very strong pent-up demand for experience. Even as we go into maybe an economic downturn, there's very strong fundamentals in retail vacancy. It's the lowest it's been in 10, 15 years. There is rent growth in retail.

零售業出人意料。對經驗的需求仍然非常強烈。即使我們可能進入經濟低迷時期，零售空置率的基本面仍然非常強勁。這是 10、15 年來的最低點。零售業租金上漲。

Multifamily is another darling for investors sort of regardless of cyclicality. People need a place to live, and household formation is only going to continue to grow. Multifamily, by the way, is the #1 asset class now in the United States and growing very quickly globally.

多戶住宅是投資者的另一個寵兒，不管週期性如何。人們需要一個居住的地方，家庭形成只會繼續增長。順便說一句，多戶住宅是美國目前排名第一的資產類別，並且在全球範圍內增長非常迅速。

And the rest, data centers, clearly very cyclical strong, demand driver's up for that sector, when you think about data consumption and how that's growing. So yes, very confident in the long-term tailwinds and the fundamentals in [profits] overall.

其餘的數據中心顯然具有很強的周期性，當您考慮數據消費及其增長方式時，需求推動了該行業的發展。所以是的，對長期順風和整體 [利潤] 的基本面非常有信心。

And Kevin, on that, let's call it, the 10% highest quality of those trophy buildings, Class A kind of stock. You mentioned the vacancy expectations, I think, 18% for this year, maybe going to 20% next year and then declining for the overall market. Do you have a sense of what that is for that highest end of the market?

凱文，就此而言，我們稱其為那些獎杯建築中質量最高的 10%，A 類股票。你提到了空置率預期，我認為今年為 18%，明年可能會達到 20%，然後整個市場都會下降。您是否了解最高端的市場是什麼？

About half. So if you look at -- if you isolate the newly-built -- prime -- newly-built prime [standard] features, all the key features of what -- how we define prime office, vacancy in that product is somewhere between 10% and 12%, and it's lower than that in some of the key cities, lower than that in Manhattan, for example, and other markets.

大約一半。因此，如果您查看 - 如果您將新建的 - 主要的 - 新建的主要 [標準] 功能，我們如何定義主要辦公室的所有關鍵功能，該產品的空缺率介於 10 % 和 12%，低於一些主要城市，例如曼哈頓和其他市場。

Got you. And then just maybe one last one, sort of on your general macroeconomic outlook for '23. I think you might have mentioned in prepared remarks, anticipation around a recession at some point this year, that's probably no surprise.

明白了然後可能只是最後一個，關於你對 23 年的總體宏觀經濟前景。我想你可能在準備好的發言中提到，對今年某個時候經濟衰退的預期，這可能不足為奇。

But just want to get your thoughts, maybe Kevin, this one is best here for you, sort of around where you see inflation maybe getting toward the back half of this year, expectations around rates peaking at some point. And any additional commentary there would be helpful.

但只是想听聽你的想法，也許凱文，這個最適合你，關於你看到通脹可能在今年下半年出現的地方，對利率在某個時候達到峰值的預期。任何額外的評論都會有所幫助。

Yes, sure. So I would just have to preface and I think as any forecaster showed right now, the situation is very fluid. Lots of unknowns. We're forecasting a very difficult time and heightened uncertainty. .

是的，當然。所以我只需要做序，我認為正如任何預測者現在所表明的那樣，情況非常不穩定。很多未知數。我們預測一個非常困難的時期和加劇的不確定性。 .

Our baseline does call for a mild recession, and the indicators I'm studying still very much point to that. The yield curve remains firmly inverted. Confidence is down, stubbornly high inflation, which you mentioned and other indicators, they are just pointing to that.

我們的基線確實需要溫和的衰退，我正在研究的指標仍然非常指向這一點。收益率曲線仍然牢牢倒掛。信心下降，你提到的頑固的高通脹和其他指標，它們只是指向這一點。

So in terms of CPI inflation, there's good news there, Both in the United States and Europe, inflation appears to have peaked. It was June of last year in the U.S. at around -- I think it was 9% on the nose. And that has now trended lower to -- 6.3% was the latest read on headline inflation year-over-year in January.

因此，就 CPI 通脹而言，那裡有一個好消息，在美國和歐洲，通脹似乎已經見頂。那是去年 6 月在美國——我認為是 9%。而現在這一趨勢已經下降到——6.3%，這是 1 月份整體通脹率的最新數據。

So that is heading in the right direction, but we still have the wage pressures there. And so I do think it's going to be very difficult for inflation to get back to target until we do see the labor markets cool off, and that is going to take time.

所以這是朝著正確的方向前進，但我們仍然面臨工資壓力。因此，我確實認為，在我們確實看到勞動力市場降溫之前，通脹很難回到目標水平，這需要時間。

So we do have CPI inflation trending lower towards the end of this year, finishing in the U.S., and that's 3.5% to 4% range. And what that means for the 10-year treasury yield as we model this is we have it hovering in the U.S. in the 3.5% to 4.5% range for the next 12 months, and then we have it settling in at 3.5% beyond that.

因此，我們確實看到 CPI 通脹在今年年底呈下降趨勢，並在美國結束，這是 3.5% 至 4% 的範圍。這對我們建模的 10 年期國債收益率意味著什麼，我們讓它在接下來的 12 個月內在美國徘徊在 3.5% 到 4.5% 的範圍內，然後我們讓它穩定在 3.5% 以上。

Our expectation is that growth will resume in 2024, that the recession will be over in Q4 of this year and would point to -- and pretty good confidence in that because of the strong underlying fundamentals going into this, some of the strongest fundamentals I've ever seen, as we enter into a potential recession. All the things are commonly cited, household balance sheets are in excellent shape, strong excess savings.

我們的預期是，經濟增長將在 2024 年恢復，經濟衰退將在今年第四季度結束，並將表明——並且對此充滿信心，因為強大的潛在基本面，我認為一些最強勁的基本面當我們進入潛在的衰退時，我們從未見過。所有事情都被普遍引用，家庭資產負債表狀況良好，超額儲蓄強勁。

So I do think once we get past the inflation problem, the Fed will then pivot to lowering rates, I think, in early 2024, and that's when we should see the economy start to rebound.

所以我確實認為，一旦我們克服了通脹問題，我認為美聯儲將在 2024 年初轉向降息，屆時我們應該會看到經濟開始反彈。

Our next question comes from Doug Harter with Credit Suisse.

我們的下一個問題來自瑞士信貸的 Doug Harter。

It's Will on for Doug tonight. We were just curious, just if you guys have had any early conversations, there are signs of early conversations with buyers or sellers in the market that give you any real sort of confidence of how the markets might perform in the coming year?

今晚是道格的威爾。我們只是好奇，如果你們有過任何早期對話，有跡象表明與市場上的買家或賣家進行了早期對話，讓您對來年市場的表現有任何真正的信心？

Well, is that question aimed at the Capital Markets side?

那麼，這個問題是針對資本市場方面的嗎？

Yes.

是的。

Okay. I think what we've seen so far this year across all markets, well, all sectors and all geographies from Capital Markets is actually a remarkable level of positivity from investors. There is a very significant amount of dry powder. It's been mentioned many times on these calls and in our peers. But there seems to be a very clear view that as the fundamentals become transparent, that there will be high levels of activity in both sales and acquisitions.

好的。我認為，今年到目前為止，我們在所有市場、資本市場的所有行業和所有地區看到的情況實際上是投資者的積極態度。有非常大量的干粉。在這些電話中和我們的同行中多次提到了這一點。但似乎有一個非常明確的觀點，即隨著基本面變得透明，銷售和收購活動都將非常活躍。

So the fundamental of global capital markets remaining a very large opportunity for us remains extremely strong. It's really just a matter of when. At which point, whether that is the back half of this year, potentially late -- even later, depending on the outcomes that Kevin mentioned.

因此，全球資本市場的基本面對我們來說仍然是一個非常大的機會，仍然非常強勁。這真的只是時間問題。屆時，是否是今年下半年，可能會晚些——甚至更晚，這取決於凱文提到的結果。

But ultimately, what we're seeing on sort of a client-by-client conversation basis, might have been around many of the largest investors in the world in the last couple of months, is that they remain ready to deploy and deploy in a very large scale.

但最終，在過去幾個月中，我們在逐個客戶的對話基礎上看到的可能是世界上許多最大的投資者，他們仍然準備好部署和部署非常大的規模。

Our next question comes from Ronald Kamdem with Morgan Stanley.

我們的下一個問題來自摩根士丹利的 Ronald Kamdem。

Just two quick ones. So just trying to connect some dots here. So looking at the guidance for PM and FM, the revenue is expected in the low to mid-single digits. But I think I also heard your earlier comments that the incremental margins for PM and FM would be decremental, and I think that's what I heard.

只是兩個快速的。所以只是想在這裡連接一些點。因此，從 PM 和 FM 的指導來看，收入預計在中低個位數。但我想我也聽到了你之前的評論，即 PM 和 FM 的增量利潤率將遞減，我想這就是我所聽到的。

So I guess my question is, if I'm just thinking about that PM/FM adjusted EBITDA number, is that -- are we supposed to see that as sort of a flattish or maybe even negative? Or without sort of giving guidance, obviously, just how should we think about how that flows through?

所以我想我的問題是，如果我只是考慮 PM/FM 調整後的 EBITDA 數字，我們是否應該將其視為一種持平甚至負面的數字？或者在沒有提供指導的情況下，很明顯，我們應該如何考慮它是如何流動的？

Yes. No, just to be very clear, we do not see decrementals in -- we were talking about incrementals on the services side. So the contribution margin as we grow our services business is in the 10% to 20% range. .

是的。不，非常清楚，我們沒有看到遞減——我們在談論服務方面的增量。因此，隨著我們服務業務的增長，貢獻率在 10% 到 20% 之間。 .

We would just be providing that as a contrast to the decrementals we see as brokerage declines and just giving buttons on the expected mix change in revenue, especially as we go through the first half of the year. So to be very clear, we do expect growth in EBITDA in the services business.

我們只是提供與經紀業務下降時我們看到的遞減形成對比，並且只是給出預期收入組合變化的按鈕，尤其是在我們經歷今年上半年的時候。所以非常清楚，我們確實預計服務業務的 EBITDA 會增長。

Got it. So for the PM and FM, basically sort of similar growth on the EBITDA line as the revenue line. Is that sort of -- is that fair?

知道了。因此，對於 PM 和 FM，EBITDA 線上的增長基本上與收入線上類似。那種 - 這公平嗎？

Yes. That's fair.

是的。這還算公平。

Excellent. And then my follow-up question is just -- I guess, my second question. Just tying this to sort of cash flow. Maybe can you remind us in terms of the conversion rate from adjusted EBITDA to sort of a free cash flow or operating cash flow number or whatever you prefer, what that would've been historically? And then how does that -- how does '23 impact, like how should we think about the capture rate changing in '23, going forward?

出色的。然後我的後續問題就是——我想，我的第二個問題。只是將其與某種現金流聯繫起來。也許你能提醒我們從調整後的 EBITDA 到某種自由現金流或經營現金流數字或任何你喜歡的轉換率，這在歷史上是什麼？然後這是如何 - '23 有何影響，比如我們應該如何考慮 '23 中捕獲率的變化，向前發展？

Sure. Yes. As we've said before, our long-term free cash flow conversion rate -- and when I say free cash flow conversion, I'm referring to conversion from adjusted EBITDA, so it's not from earnings from EBITDA. Our net conversion rate, our target is 30% to 40%.

當然。是的。正如我們之前所說，我們的長期自由現金流轉換率——當我說自由現金流轉換時，我指的是調整後 EBITDA 的轉換，所以它不是來自 EBITDA 的收益。我們的淨轉化率，我們的目標是30%到40%。

As we said, as we look at cash flow, given the changes that we see during the year, especially over the last 2 years where we saw very -- strength in the first half, weakness, weakness, strength, one really has to look over a cycle. So as we give that guidance 30% to 40% as a mid to long range guide, that is over the cycle, so it's over a multiple year period.

正如我們所說，當我們查看現金流量時，考慮到我們在這一年中看到的變化，尤其是在過去的兩年中，我們看到了非常 - 上半年的優勢，疲軟，疲軟，實力，我們真的必須看看過一個週期。因此，當我們將 30% 到 40% 的指導作為中長期指導時，那是在整個週期內，所以它是在多年期間內。

If we look back historically over the last 2 years, so we look at '21 and '22, as you look at that free cash flow conversion, it was slightly below 30%, around 28%, but right in line with the guidance that we gave earlier last year.

如果我們回顧過去兩年的歷史，那麼我們看看 21 年和 22 年，當你看到自由現金流轉換時，它略低於 30%，大約 28%，但與指導一致我們去年早些時候給了。

And as we look then to '23, we'd expect that conversion to be lower, given the fact that we expect to see weaker brokerage of high margin in the first half of the year, and then we will [grow] into those ranges over the cycle.

當我們展望 23 年時，我們預計轉換率會降低，因為我們預計今年上半年高利潤率的經紀業務會較弱，然後我們將 [增長] 進入這些範圍在循環中。

This concludes our question-and-answer session. I would like to turn the conference back over to John Forrester for any closing remarks.

我們的問答環節到此結束。我想將會議轉回給 John Forrester，聽取任何閉幕詞。

Thanks to everybody for joining our call today to hear our 2022 full-year results.

感謝大家今天加入我們的電話會議，聽聽我們 2022 年的全年業績。

As we said, it was a strong year despite the challenges, and we believe 2023 is going to be another challenging year, but one which we are very well positioned for, and whether long-term fundamentals of our industry and our position within that industry remain strong.

正如我們所說，儘管面臨挑戰，但這是強勁的一年，我們相信 2023 年將是又一個充滿挑戰的一年，但我們已經做好充分準備，我們行業的長期基本面和我們在該行業中的地位是否保持堅強。

As a company, we're energized by the opportunity that volatility in complex markets provide in the macro environment. We always end up taking market share and coming out stronger in a period like this. So the benefit of the -- of scale and a diversified platform makes us feel very good about the opportunity to continue to grow the organization, lean into our strategy and drive outsized returns. So thank you all for joining, and speak to you next time.

作為一家公司，我們對複雜市場的波動在宏觀環境中提供的機會充滿活力。在這樣的時期，我們總是最終會佔據市場份額並變得更強大。因此，規模和多元化平台的好處讓我們對繼續發展組織、專注於我們的戰略和推動超額回報的機會感到非常高興。所以感謝大家的加入，下次再談。

The conference has now concluded. Thank you for attending today's presentation. You may now disconnect.

會議現已結束。感謝您參加今天的演講。您現在可以斷開連接。