Coterra Energy Inc (CTRA) 2023 Q4 法說會逐字稿

Hello, and thank you for standing by. My name is Regina, and I will be your conference operator today. At this time, I would like to welcome everyone to the Coterra Energy Fourth Quarter 2023 Earnings Conference Call. (Operator Instructions). I would now like to turn the conference over to Dan Guffey, Vice President, Finance, Planning and Investor Relations. Please go ahead.

您好，感謝您的支持。我叫雷吉娜，今天我將擔任你們的會議操作員。此時此刻，我歡迎大家參加 Coterra Energy 2023 年第四季財報電話會議。 （操作員說明）。現在我想將會議交給負責財務、規劃和投資者關係的副總裁 Dan Guffey。請繼續。

Thank you, operator. Good morning, and thank you for joining Coterra Energy's Fourth Quarter and Full Year 2023 Earnings and 2024 Outlook Conference Call. Today's prepared remarks will include an overview from Tom Jorden, Chairman, CEO and President; Shane Young, Executive Vice President and CFO; and Blake Sirgo, Senior Vice President of Operations.

謝謝你，接線生。早安，感謝您參加 Coterra Energy 2023 年第四季和全年收益以及 2024 年展望電話會議。今天準備好的講話將包括董事長、執行長兼總裁 Tom Jorden 的概述； Shane Young，執行副總裁兼財務長；和 Blake Sirgo，營運資深副總裁。

Following our prepared remarks, we will take your questions during our Q&A session. As a reminder, on today's call, we will make forward-looking statements based on our current expectations. Additionally, some of our comments will reference non-GAAP financial measures. Forward-looking statements and other disclaimers as well as reconciliations to the most directly comparable GAAP financial measures were provided in our earnings release and updated investor presentation, both of which can be found on our website.

在我們準備好的發言之後，我們將在問答環節回答您的問題。提醒一下，在今天的電話會議上，我們將根據目前的預期做出前瞻性陳述。此外，我們的一些評論將參考非公認會計準則財務指標。我們的收益報告和更新的投資者簡報中提供了前瞻性陳述和其他免責聲明，以及與最直接可比較的公認會計準則財務指標的對賬，這兩者都可以在我們的網站上找到。

With that, I'll turn the call over to Tom.

這樣，我就把電話轉給湯姆。

Thank you, Dan, and welcome to all of you who are joining us on the call. Coterra had an excellent fourth quarter as shown by the results that we released last night. Shane will walk you through the specifics here, which include coming in above the high end of our guidance on oil, natural gas and BOE or barrels of oil equivalent and below our capital guide.

謝謝丹，並歡迎所有加入我們電話會議的人。正如我們昨晚發布的結果所示，Coterra 第四季的表現非常出色。肖恩將向您介紹這裡的具體細節，其中包括高於我們對石油、天然氣和英國石油當量或桶油當量指導的高端，並低於我們的資本指導。

For full year 2023, we finished the year with 5% year-over-year growth in BOE and 10% year-over-year growth in oil volumes while hitting the midpoint of our capital guide.

2023 年全年，我們的 BOE 年增 5%，石油產量年增 10%，同時達到資本指南的中點。

More importantly, we generated excellent returns. We also made great progress on emissions reduction and continue to push the envelope on our environmental initiatives.

更重要的是，我們獲得了豐厚的回報。我們在減排方面也取得了巨大進展，並繼續挑戰我們的環保舉措的極限。

As we look ahead to 2024, total capital is projected to be between $1.75 billion and $1.95 billion. Given the outlook for commodity prices and commensurate revenue, we think that this is a prudent level of investment as it invests approximately 60% of our projected cash flow. We will grow our investments in the Permian and Anadarko basins and retrench in the Marcellus. We are reducing our Marcellus investments by over $400 million in 2024 compared to 2023.

展望 2024 年，總資本預計將在 17.5 億美元至 19.5 億美元之間。考慮到大宗商品價格和相應收入的前景，我們認為這是一個謹慎的投資水平，因為它投資了我們預計現金流的約 60%。我們將增加對二疊紀盆地和阿納達科盆地的投資，並縮減對馬塞勒斯盆地的投資。與 2023 年相比，我們到 2024 年對 Marcellus 的投資將減少超過 4 億美元。

Mark Twain said that a man learned something by carrying a cat by the tail that he can learn in no other way. Through the commodity cycles, we have learned that, although down swings typically do not last long, they also do not come pre-labeled with how long they will last. We have learned to be disciplined and patient. Experience tells us that our focus should always be on returns and never on production or activity. In this case, that means throttling back on our Marcellus program.

馬克吐溫說，一個人抓住一隻貓的尾巴學到了一些其他方法無法學到的東西。透過大宗商品週期，我們了解到，儘管下行波動通常不會持續很長時間，但它們也沒有預先標記將持續多長時間。我們學會了遵守紀律和耐心。經驗告訴我們，我們的重點應該始終放在回報上，而不是生產或活動。在這種情況下，這意味著我們的馬塞勒斯計劃將受到限制。

We remain highly optimistic on the 12- to 18-month outlook for the gas macro. The impact of new LNG export capacity coming online at the end of 2024 and early 2025 coupled with the possibility of cold weather provides reasonable hope for significant price recovery in natural gas. However, experience tells us that although we will underwrite our hopes with the future strip price, we should never underwrite our capital program with it. We will be patient and watch for recovery in the gas macro. Missing a few months of the recovery is much better than fully participating in the downside.

我們對 12 至 18 個月天然氣宏觀前景保持高度樂觀。 2024 年底和 2025 年初新增液化天然氣出口能力的影響，加上寒冷天氣的可能性，為天然氣價格大幅回升提供了合理的希望。然而，經驗告訴我們，雖然我們會用未來的剝離價格來承保我們的希望，但我們永遠不應該用它來承保我們的資本計畫。我們將耐心等待天然氣宏觀經濟的復甦。錯過幾個月的復甦比完全參與下行要好得多。

We project that the slowdown in the Marcellus will result in our natural gas volume shrinking 6% in the Marcellus in 2024. If we see signs of recovery in natural gas, our 2024 capital range includes a contingency plan to accelerate our Marcellus program in the latter half of the year, which would reposition us for significant growth in our gas volumes in 2025 and 2026. We will watch and be ready to act.

我們預計，馬塞勒斯地區的天然氣產量放緩將導致我們在2024 年馬塞勒斯地區的天然氣產量減少6%。如果我們看到天然氣復甦的跡象，我們2024 年的資本範圍包括一項應急計劃，以加快我們在後者的馬塞勒斯項目今年上半年，這將使我們重新定位，以便在 2025 年和 2026 年天然氣產量大幅增長。我們將密切關注並準備採取行動。

In the meantime, we will pivot to our deep inventory in the Anadarko and Permian where our returns are excellent. We have a tremendous program ahead of us in 2024, and we are excited to be increasing activity in both the Permian and Anadarko. All 3 business units, however, are poised and ready for out-year acceleration should conditions warrant. This ability to redirect and reposition activity around premier assets is one of the differentiating strengths of Coterra.

同時，我們將把重點轉向阿納達科和二疊紀盆地的深度庫存，在那裡我們的回報非常好。 2024 年，我們面臨著一項艱鉅的計劃，我們很高興能夠增加二疊紀和阿納達科的活動。不過，如果條件允許，所有 3 個業務部門都已做好準備，迎接年內的加速發展。這種圍繞主要資產重新定向和重新定位活動的能力是 Coterra 的差異化優勢之一。

We also provided an update on our 3-year outlook. Our new 2024 to 2026 outlook has Coterra with an average annual CapEx of $1.75 billion to $1.95 billion. Which is expected to generate annual growth in the low single digits for BOE and 5% plus for oil growth. This plan leverages our deep, high-quality inventory, demonstrates improving capital efficiency and clearly displays the confidence we have in our ability to continue a cadence of operational excellence. This is an achievable outlook under current conditions. As always, we continuously adjust our plans with changing conditions. As we have previously said, planning at Coterra is a guided missile not a rocket fire.

我們也提供了 3 年展望的最新資訊。在我們新的 2024 年至 2026 年展望中，Coterra 的平均年度資本支出為 17.5 億美元至 19.5 億美元。預計京東方的年增率將達到低個位數，石油成長率將達到 5% 以上。該計劃利用了我們深厚的高品質庫存，展示了資本效率的提高，並清楚地表明了我們對繼續卓越營運節奏的信心。在當前條件下，這是可以實現的前景。一如既往，我們根據不斷變化的情況不斷調整我們的計劃。正如我們之前所說，Coterra 的計劃是導彈而不是火箭發射。

In closing, I wanted to acknowledge our remarkable field organization. They set the pace for operational excellence. They work in hostile environments with dedication, perseverance and an unwavering commitment to safety. They serve as an example to all of us.

最後，我想對我們出色的現場組織表示認可。他們為卓越營運奠定了基礎。他們在惡劣的環境中以奉獻精神、毅力和對安全的堅定承諾工作。他們為我們所有人樹立了榜樣。

The Coterra brand stands for operational excellence, leading-edge technology and innovation, best-in-class development of outstanding assets and the ability to adapt nimbly to changing market conditions. We want to be known for a pristine balance sheet, investment discipline and rigorous economic decision analysis. We are not perfect. However, having a great organization, great assets and a great balance sheet allows us to learn from our mistakes, make continuous progress and always push ourselves farther and harder.

Coterra 品牌代表著卓越的營運、領先的技術和創新、一流的優秀資產開發以及靈活適應不斷變化的市場條件的能力。我們希望以原始的資產負債表、投資紀律和嚴格的經濟決策分析而聞名。我們並不完美。然而，擁有優秀的組織、優秀的資產和良好的資產負債表可以讓我們從錯誤中學習，不斷進步，並且始終推動自己走得更遠、更努力。

With that, I will turn the call over to Shane.

這樣，我就把電話轉給謝恩。

So thank you, Tom. And thank you, everyone, for joining us on today's call. This morning, I'll focus on 4 areas: First, I will discuss highlights for our fourth quarter and full year 2023 results. Then, I will provide production and capital guidance for the first quarter and full year 2024. Next, I will provide a new and updated 3-year production and capital outlook for 2024 through 2026. Finally, I'll discuss our shareholder return program and our debt maturity later this year.

謝謝你，湯姆。感謝大家參加今天的電話會議。今天早上，我將重點放在 4 個領域：首先，我將討論我們第四季和 2023 年全年業績的亮點。然後，我將提供2024 年第一季和全年的生產和資本指導。接下來，我將提供2024 年至2026 年新的和更新的3 年生產和資本展望。最後，我將討論我們的股東回報計劃和我們的債務將於今年稍後到期。

Turning to our strong performance during the fourth quarter. Fourth quarter total production averaged 697 MBOE per day, with oil averaging 104.7 MBO per day and natural gas averaging 2.97 Bcf (sic) [2.87] per day. All production streams came in above the high end of guidance, driven by well performance and acceleration of TIL timing during the quarter.

轉向我們第四季的強勁表現。第四季總產量平均每天 697 MBOE，其中石油平均每天 104.7 MBO，天然氣平均每天 2.97 Bcf（原文如此）[2.87]。在本季良好的業績和 TIL 時間加速的推動下，所有生產流量均高於指導上限。

Specifically, turn-in lines during the quarter totaled 40 net wells, including 28 in the Permian, near the high end of guidance, and 12 in the Marcellus, slightly above the midpoint of guidance.

具體而言，本季的上交線總數為 40 口淨井，其中 28 口位於二疊紀盆地，接近指引值的高端，12 口位於馬塞勒斯盆地，略高於指引值的中點。

During the fourth quarter, free hedge revenues were approximately $1.5 billion, of which 61% were generated by oil and NGL sales. In the quarter, we reported net income of $416 million or $0.55 per share and adjusted net income of $387 million or $0.52 per share. Total cash costs during the quarter, including LOE, workover, transportation, production taxes and G&A totaled $8.41 per BOE, near the midpoint of our annual guidance range of $7.30 to $9.40 per BOE.

第四季度，免費對沖收入約為 15 億美元，其中 61% 來自石油和液化天然氣銷售。本季度，我們報告淨利潤為 4.16 億美元，即每股 0.55 美元，調整後淨利潤為 3.87 億美元，即每股 0.52 美元。本季的總現金成本（包括 LOE、修井、運輸、生產稅和 G&A）總計為每桶油當量 8.41 美元，接近我們年度指導範圍（每桶油桶 7.30 至 9.40 美元）的中點。

Cash hedge gains during the quarter totaled $46 million. Incurred capital expenditures in the fourth quarter totaled $457 million, just below the low end of our guidance range. Discretionary cash flow was $881 million and free cash flow was $413 million, after cash capital expenditures was $468 million.

本季現金對沖收益總計 4,600 萬美元。第四季發生的資本支出總計 4.57 億美元，略低於我們指導範圍的下限。扣除現金資本支出 4.68 億美元後，可自由支配現金流為 8.81 億美元，自由現金流為 4.13 億美元。

For the full year 2023, Coterra produced outstanding results. Total equivalent production exceeded the high end of our initial February guidance, coming in at 667 MBOE per day. This outperformance was driven by a combination of better-than-expected well timing and beats on expected well productivity.

2023 年全年，Coterra 取得了出色的業績。當量總產量超出了我們 2 月最初指導的上限，達到每天 667 MBOE。這一優異表現是由於好於預期的井時機和超出預期的油井產能共同推動的。

Oil production for the year was 96.2 MBO per day, exceeding the high end of initial guidance by over 4%. Capital costs were right at the midpoint of our guidance range, coming in at $2.1 billion as a result of relentless focus on capital by our teams in each of our business units.

全年石油產量為每天 96.2 MBO，超出最初指導上限 4% 以上。由於我們每個業務部門的團隊對資本的不懈關注，資本成本正好處於我們指導範圍的中點，為 21 億美元。

Cash operating cost per unit totaled $8.37 per BOE for the year, slightly below our initial guidance midpoint.

今年每單位現金營運成本總計為每桶油當量 8.37 美元，略低於我們最初指導的中點。

Looking ahead to 2024. During the first quarter of 2024, we expect total production to average between 660 and 690 MBOE per day, oil to be between 95 and 99 MBO per day and natural gas to be between 2.85 and 2.95 Bcf per day.

展望 2024 年。2024 年第一季度，我們預計總產量平均為每天 660 至 690 MBOE，石油產量為每天 95 至 99 MBO，天然氣產量為每天 2.85 至 2.95 Bcf。

We anticipate first quarter oil production to have the lowest average for any quarter during 2024. Primarily as a result of TIL timing that pulled some volume forward and into the fourth quarter of 2023.

我們預計第一季石油產量將是 2024 年任何季度中最低的平均產量。這主要是由於 TIL 時間表將部分產量提前至 2023 年第四季度。

Regarding investment, we expect incurred capital in the first quarter to be between $460 million and $540 million.

在投資方面，我們預計第一季的資本支出將在 4.6 億至 5.4 億美元之間。

For the full year 2024, we expect incurred capital to be between $1.75 billion and $1.95 billion or 12% lower at the midpoint than our 2023 capital spend. Our 2024 program will modestly increase capital allocation to the liquids-rich Permian and Anadarko Basins and significantly decrease capital by more than 50% in the Marcellus.

對於 2024 年全年，我們預計發生的資本將在 17.5 億美元至 19.5 億美元之間，即比 2023 年資本支出的中位數低 12%。我們的 2024 年計畫將適度增加對液體豐富的二疊紀和阿納達科盆地的資本配置，並大幅減少馬塞勒斯盆地 50% 以上的資本。

We expect total production for the year to average between 635 and 675 MBOE per day and oil to be between 99 and 105 MBO per day or 6% higher at the midpoint than oil was in 2023.

我們預計今年的總產量平均為每天 635 至 675 MBOE，石油產量為每天 99 至 105 MBOE，即比 2023 年石油產量中位數高出 6%。

Natural gas is expected to be between 2.65 and 2.8 Bcf per day. Approximately 5.5% lower at the midpoint than gas production was in 2023. It is important to note that we have incorporated efficiency gains achieved in 2023 into our 2024 guidance.

預計天然氣產量為每天 2.65 至 2.8 Bcf。中位數比 2023 年天然氣產量低約 5.5%。值得注意的是，我們已將 2023 年實現的效率提升納入 2024 年指引。

Reflecting on our new 3-year outlook. As we did this time last year, yesterday, we announced our new 3-year outlook for 2024 through 2026. We believe this is a robust capital-efficient plan that delivers consistent profitable growth for our shareholders. We anticipate that our project inventory can deliver 5%-plus oil volume growth over this period with 0% to 5% BOE growth by investing between $1.75 billion and $1.95 billion of capital per year. This reflects increased capital efficiency and is designed to afford Coterra the flexibility to reallocate capital between our business units as market conditions change.

反思我們新的三年展望。正如我們去年這個時候所做的那樣，昨天，我們宣布了2024 年至2026 年的新3 年展望。我們相信，這是一項穩健的資本效率計劃，可為我們的股東帶來持續的利潤增長。我們預計，透過每年投資 17.5 億至 19.5 億美元的資本，我們的專案庫存可在此期間實現 5% 以上的石油產量成長，同時 BOE 成長 0% 至 5%。這反映了資本效率的提高，旨在讓 Coterra 在市場條件變化時能夠靈活地在我們的業務部門之間重新分配資本。

This outlook incorporates an appropriate level of reinvestment and delivers meaningful free cash flow to underpin shareholder returns.

這項前景包含適當水準的再投資，並提供有意義的自由現金流以支撐股東回報。

Moving on to shareholder returns. Last night, we announced a $0.21 per share base dividend for the fourth quarter, increasing our annual base dividend by 5% to $0.84 per share. This remains one of the highest yielding base dividends in the industry at well over 3%. Management and the Board remain committed to responsibly increasing the base dividend on an annual cadence.

接下來是股東回報。昨晚，我們宣布第四季度每股基本股息為 0.21 美元，年度基本股息增加 5% 至每股 0.84 美元。這仍然是業內收益率最高的基本股息之一，遠高於 3%。管理階層和董事會仍然致力於負責任地每年增加基本股利。

During 2023, despite relatively lower commodity prices and cash flow, Coterra continued to execute on its shareholder return program by repurchasing 17 million shares for $418 million at an average price of approximately $25 per share. In total, we returned 77% of free cash flow during the year or just over $1 billion. We remain committed to our strategy of returning 50% or more of our annual free cash flow to shareholders through a combination of a healthy base dividend and our share repurchase program.

2023 年，儘管大宗商品價格和現金流相對較低，Coterra 仍繼續執行股東回報計劃，以 4.18 億美元的價格回購 1,700 萬股股票，平均價格約為每股 25 美元。全年我們總共返還了 77% 的自由現金流，即略高於 10 億美元。我們仍然致力於透過健康的基本股利和股票回購計畫相結合，將 50% 或更多的年度自由現金流返還給股東的策略。

On to our 2024 notes. We have continued to monitor and analyze opportunities regarding our $575 million maturity coming this September. With low leverage at 0.3x, we believe we have strong access to the active refinancing markets. At the same time, we had approximately $2.5 billion of liquidity between cash and our undrawn credit facility at year-end, affording us many options with regard to our 2024 maturity.

繼續我們的 2024 年筆記。我們繼續監控和分析今年 9 月到期的 5.75 億美元到期機會。憑藉 0.3 倍的低槓桿率，我們相信我們可以輕鬆進入活躍的再融資市場。同時，我們在年底的現金和未提取的信貸額度之間擁有約 25 億美元的流動性，這為我們在 2024 年到期時提供了多種選擇。

In summary, Coterra's team delivered another quarter of high-quality results, both operationally and financially. We are poised for a strong first (inaudible) of 2024, which we believe will set a solid foundation for the full year 2024 and beyond.

總之，Coterra 團隊在營運和財務方面又交付了一個季度的高品質業績。我們已準備好迎接 2024 年的強勁開局（聽不清楚），我們相信這將為 2024 年全年及以後奠定堅實的基礎。

With that, I will hand the call over to Blake to provide additional color and detail on our operations. Blake?

這樣，我將把電話轉交給布萊克，以提供有關我們運營的更多資訊和細節。布萊克？

Thanks, Shane. This morning, I will discuss our capital expenditures and provide an operational update. Fourth quarter accrued capital expenditures totaled $457 million, coming in just below the low end of our guidance. The lower CapEx was driven by efficiency and cost gains, reduced infrastructure spend, lower-than-expected nonoperated capital and shuffling of the timing on a few projects. As noted, strong execution in the field pulled a few Q1 TILs into Q4, which contributed to the Q4 '23 production beat.

謝謝，謝恩。今天早上，我將討論我們的資本支出並提供營運最新情況。第四季應計資本支出總計 4.57 億美元，略低於我們指引的下限。資本支出下降的原因包括效率和成本收益、基礎設施支出減少、非營運資本低於預期以及一些項目的時間調整。如前所述，該領域的強勁執行力將一些第一季的 TIL 拉入了第四季度，促成了 23 年第四季的產量成長。

Coterra finished the year at $2.104 billion of total CapEx at our midpoint of our annual guide. This quarter marks the 10th quarter in Coterra's existence, and 10 straight quarters of delivering on our oil guidance. This was accomplished thanks to our operations teams across our business units who strive for operational excellence.

Coterra 今年的資本支出總額為 21.04 億美元，處於我們年度指南的中位數。本季標誌著 Coterra 成立的第十個季度，也是連續 10 個季度實現我們的石油指引。這要歸功於我們各業務部門的營運團隊致力於卓越營運。

At Coterra, operational excellence means operating safely and with integrity while always looking for ways to accomplish more or less. We do not tolerate sacred cows, and we are always on the hunt for new ideas, even if they are not our own. As we enter 2024, we are delivering a plan that continues to do more for less.

在 Coterra，卓越營運意味著安全、誠信地運營，同時始終尋找實現或多或少目標的方法。我們不容忍神聖的事物，我們總是在尋找新的想法，即使它們不是我們自己的想法。進入 2024 年，我們正在實施一項計劃，繼續以更少的成本做更多的事情。

In Permian, we are planning to turn in line 75 to 90 wells in 2024, which is down 13% over 2023. These wells will have a dollar per foot of $1,075, down approximately 10% year-over-year. In the Permian, we are currently running 2 frac crews and 8 drilling rigs, which are performing at or near all-time efficiency records. Our frac efficiencies are coupled with new contracts that offer increased cost savings to Coterra as we gain in efficiency.

在二疊紀盆地，我們計劃在 2024 年投入 75 至 90 口井，比 2023 年下降 13%。這些井的每英尺成本將為 1,075 美元，年減約 10%。在二疊紀，我們目前正在運行 2 個壓裂團隊和 8 個鑽機，其運作效率達到或接近歷史最高記錄。我們的壓裂效率與新合約結合，隨著我們效率的提高，Coterra 可以節省更多的成本。

Across our Permian footprint, we are taking advantage of our large contiguous assets to bring economies of scale to bear. This is highlighted by our Windham Row project in Culberson County, where we are prosecuting a 51-well row development across 6 drill spacing units with each well targeting the Upper Wolfcamp.

在我們的二疊紀足跡中，我們正在利用我們龐大的連續資產來實現規模經濟。我們位於卡爾伯森縣的 Windham Row 計畫凸顯了這一點，我們正在該計畫中進行 6 個鑽距單位的 51 井行開發，每口井都針對 Upper Wolfcamp。

By concentrating in activity at this scale, we are able to minimize rig and frac moves, co-mingle facilities and maximize time-outs. Combine this with our first grid-powered electric simulfrac, we expect to deliver these wells at 5% to 15% lower cost than our historical program.

透過集中進行這種規模的活動，我們能夠最大限度地減少鑽機和壓裂移動、混合設施並最大限度地延長暫停時間。將此與我們的第一個電網供電的電動模擬壓裂相結合，我們預計將以比我們歷史計劃低 5% 至 15% 的成本交付這些油井。

Our Permian asset is an engine of capital efficiency, and that engine continues to find a new gear.

我們的二疊紀資產是資本效率的引擎，而且引擎不斷尋找新的齒輪。

In the Marcellus, we are currently running 2 rigs and 1 frac crew with plans to go to 1 rig and lower our frac activity. Our Marcellus ops teams worked diligently in 2023 to lower our cost structure through increased frac efficiencies, improved water handling and lower facility costs. We are also pushing new limits on lateral length with 3 and 4-mile laterals now part of our program. These cost gains help us to minimize our D&C spend as we go into 2024 and throttle down our activity.

在馬塞勒斯，我們目前正在運行 2 個鑽井平台和 1 名壓裂人員，並計劃使用 1 個鑽井平台並降低我們的壓裂活動。我們的 Marcellus 營運團隊在 2023 年辛勤工作，透過提高壓裂效率、改善水處理和降低設施成本來降低我們的成本結構。我們還對橫向長度提出了新的限制，3 英里和 4 英里的橫向長度現在已成為我們計劃的一部分。這些成本效益有助於我們在進入 2024 年時最大限度地減少 D&C 支出並減少我們的活動。

Our 2024 Marcellus program remains flexible and includes multiple on-ramps and off-ramps, which will allow us to adjust to changing macro conditions if warranted.

我們的 2024 年馬塞勒斯計畫仍然靈活，包括多個入口和出口，這將使我們能夠在必要時根據不斷變化的宏觀條件進行調整。

In the Anadarko, we are currently running 2 rigs and 1 frac crew. Our Anadarko team had a great year executing with improved drilling times and frac efficiencies. Our 2024 program includes 20 to 25 turn-in lines across 5 projects focused on our liquids-rich assets, which we expect will continue to yield strong returns. Consistency of execution, paired with strong well results, has made our Anadarko assets a stout competitor for capital allocation at Coterra.

在阿納達科，我們目前正在運行 2 台鑽機和 1 名壓裂人員。我們的阿納達科團隊在這一年中表現出色，鑽井時間和壓裂效率都得到改善。我們的 2024 年計畫包括 5 個項目的 20 至 25 個上交線，重點關注我們富含液體的資產，我們預計這些項目將繼續產生強勁的回報。執行的一致性，加上強勁的油井業績，使我們的阿納達科資產成為 Coterra 資本配置的有力競爭對手。

Our unrelenting focus on operational excellence continued to bear fruit in 2023. And we expect the team to seek out and execute incremental efficiencies in 2024.

我們對卓越營運的不懈關注在 2023 年繼續取得成果。我們預計團隊將在 2024 年尋求並提高效率。

And with that, I'll turn it back to Tom.

說到這裡，我會把它轉回給湯姆。

Thank you, Shane and Blake. We are pleased with our continued execution in 2023 and expect to deliver on our goals outlined in our 2024 plans. We appreciate your interest in Coterra and look forward to discussing our results and outlook.

謝謝你們，肖恩和布萊克。我們對 2023 年的持續執行感到滿意，並期望實現 2024 年計畫中概述的目標。我們感謝您對 Coterra 的興趣，並期待討論我們的結果和前景。

We'll now be open for questions.

我們現在歡迎提問。

(Operator Instructions) Our first question will come from the line of Nitin Kumar with Mizuho Securities.

（操作員指示）我們的第一個問題將來自瑞穗證券的尼廷庫馬爾（Nitin Kumar）。

Congrats on a strong year that really showcases the idea that was behind Coterra. I guess I want to start at just the capital allocation, you're cutting activity in the Marcellus in response to gas prices. But a lot of people think of the Anadarko Basin as a gas basin and you're allocating some incremental capital there. But could you walk us through kind of the thought process there?

恭喜您度過了強勁的一年，真正展現了 Coterra 背後的理念。我想我只想從資本配置開始，你正在削減馬塞勒斯的活動以應對天然氣價格。但很多人認為阿納達科盆地是一個天然氣盆地，你在那裡分配一些增量資本。但您能否向我們介紹那裡的思考過程？

Thanks, Nitin. I'll probably disappoint with my answer because it's pretty simple. I'll say upfront, I know a lot of people think of Anadarko in a lot of ways, and I'd like them to keep thinking that way because we think the Anadarko is a tremendous basin with great opportunity. One of the things that was a challenge for Anadarko team was just showing repeatability. I've talked at length about capital allocation being a function of return on capital and repeatability in addition to how much windage do you have in the price file. And our team showed great repeatability on some outstanding projects in 2023. And so the increased allocation is really a function of letting them just continue their activity level. Had we done anything other than that, we would have throttled back or pulled the plug on their continuing activity. The returns are outstanding. I'll just say that.

謝謝，尼廷。我可能會對我的答案感到失望，因為它非常簡單。我首先要說的是，我知道很多人對阿納達科有很多不同的看法，我希望他們繼續這樣思考，因為我們認為阿納達科是一個巨大的盆地，蘊藏著巨大的機會。阿納達科團隊面臨的挑戰之一就是顯示可重複性。我已經詳細討論了資本配置是資本回報率和可重複性以及價格文件中有多少偏差的函數。我們的團隊在 2023 年的一些優秀項目上表現出了很好的可重複性。因此，增加的分配實際上是讓他們繼續他們的活動水平的一個功能。如果我們做除此之外的任何事情，我們就會限製或終止他們的持續活動。回報非常出色。我就這麼說吧。

And so we're reallocating a little under $300 million between the Permian and Anadarko. And that's just -- it was challenging because we have great returns everywhere. I'll also say that one of the things that we see in the Anadarko coming forward is we have some peers that are also moving forward with increased activity. And so we expect a larger outside operated call on our capital in the Anadarko and some of that is embedded in that allocation. So really, it's a problem that we love to have, and we're very pleased with our allocation decision.

因此，我們在二疊紀盆地和阿納達科盆地之間重新分配了略低於 3 億美元的資金。這就是——這很有挑戰性，因為我們在任何地方都獲得了豐厚的回報。我還要說的是，我們在阿納達科的進展中看到的一件事是，我們的一些同行也在隨著活動的增加而前進。因此，我們預計對我們在阿納達科的資本會有更大的外部操作調用，其中一些已包含在該分配中。所以說真的，這是我們喜歡遇到的問題，我們對我們的分配決定非常滿意。

Great. And then, Tom, industry consolidation continues at a pretty frantic pace. As you look around the lease lines, you have new neighbors or maybe the same neighbor around you. Your thoughts on scale M&A for Coterra from here on out. You certainly have a plethora of organic opportunities, but I'd love to hear your thoughts on M&A going forward.

偉大的。然後，湯姆，產業整合繼續以相當瘋狂的速度進行。當你環顧租賃線時，你會發現你周圍有新鄰居，或者可能是同一個鄰居。從現在起您對 Coterra 大規模併購的看法。您當然擁有大量有機機會，但我很想聽聽您對未來併購的想法。

Nitin, thank you for that. Our criteria is very simple. When we look at potential combinations, we ask ourselves, would we rather want a share of Coterra or a share of the combined reformulated company. And there are, of course, a lot of elements to that. But first and foremost, it must create value for our owners.

尼丁，謝謝你。我們的標準非常簡單。當我們考慮潛在的合併時，我們會問自己，我們是願意持有 Coterra 的股份，還是合併後重組公司的股份。當然，其中有很多因素。但最重要的是，它必須為我們的所有者創造價值。

And look, I think the Wall Street Journal should have a weekend breaking story that says, "flash, everybody looking at everybody else in the E&P space", because that's what we have. So there haven't been any opportunities that we really have browbeat ourselves on that have come and gone. We remain deeply curious about what consolidation could offer for Coterra owners. But the bar is very, very high. I'll just leave it at that.

看，我認為《華爾街日報》應該有一篇週末突發新聞，上面寫著“快閃，每個人都在關注勘探與生產領域的其他人”，因為這就是我們所擁有的。因此，我們並沒有真正威脅自己的任何機會來了又去。我們仍然對整合能為 Coterra 所有者帶來什麼深感好奇。但門檻非常非常高。我就這樣吧。

Your next question will come from the line of Arun Jayaram with JPMorgan.

您的下一個問題將來自摩根大通的 Arun Jayaram。

I was wondering, I'm looking at Slide 15 in your deck, where you're highlighting your expectations for well productivity in the Delaware Basin relative to peers and the results from Coterra from 2021 to '23. I was wondering if you could maybe provide some color around expectations on productivity in '24 if we could kind of compare that to what you did last year?

我想知道，我正在看您幻燈片中的幻燈片 15，其中您強調了您對特拉華盆地相對於同行的油井生產力的期望以及 Coterra 從 2021 年到 23 年的結果。我想知道您是否可以提供一些有關 24 年生產力預期的信息，如果我們可以將其與您去年所做的進行比較？

Yes, Arun, this is Blake. I'll take that. That's really why we kind of give that range on that slide. As we've talked about in the past, our Permian program is really a rotation throughout our assets. And that's driven by a lot of different things. The mix can vary somewhat year-to-year, but over a multiyear time frame, it's pretty consistent. And so I'd just say we'd expect '24 to fall well within that band and deliver another good year on productivity.

是的，阿倫，這是布萊克。我會接受的。這就是我們在幻燈片上給出這個範圍的真正原因。正如我們過去談到的，我們的二疊紀計劃實際上是對我們資產的輪換。這是由許多不同的因素所驅動的。每年的組合可能會有所不同，但在多年的時間範圍內，它是相當一致的。因此，我只想說，我們預計 24 年將很好地落在這一範圍內，並在生產力方面再創豐收之年。

And just thoughts on comparison to what you delivered in '23? Just trying to understand how you think year-over-year productivity could trend on a per foot basis?

只是想與您在 23 年交付的內容進行比較？只是想了解您認為以每英尺計算的逐年生產力趨勢如何？

I would say very similar. There's definitely some room for upside there with some of the allocations, but I'd expect another strong year.

我想說非常相似。一些分配肯定有一些上升空間，但我預計又是一個強勁的一年。

Your next question comes from the line of Doug Leggate with Bank of America.

你的下一個問題來自美國銀行的 Doug Leggate。

This is actually Kalein for Doug. The first thing I want to hit is the Marcellus, where you're adapting activity in response to price. So I guess I'm trying to understand the scenario analysis. Is the Marcellus' free cash flow breakeven on '24 strip. And assuming basis is static, at what hub price does activity begin to shift higher?

這實際上是道格的卡林。我想講的第一件事是 Marcellus，您可以根據價格調整活動。所以我想我正在嘗試理解場景分析。馬塞勒斯的自由現金流在 24 條帶上是否達到損益兩平？假設基差是靜態的，那麼在什麼中心價格下，活動開始走高？

Kalei, this is Tom. We've been debating that internally. I can't give you a firm number. But I will say that we look really carefully at receive price. And I know we talk about weighted average sales price, but we really look at the price received by the next molecule, which is really a function of what would be a basis price, less our fixed cost.

卡蕾，這是湯姆。我們內部一直在爭論這個問題。我無法給你一個確定的數字。但我要說的是，我們非常仔細地考慮接收價格。我知道我們談論的是加權平均銷售價格，但我們真正關注的是下一個分子收到的價格，這實際上是基本價格減去我們的固定成本的函數。

I would say we would really like to see a price close to or above $3, I think before it would really meet a criteria that shifts a lot of capital, but it's also a function of the oil to gas ratio. And we'd really like to see a sustained ratio that's somewhere in the neighborhood of 20:1, oil to gas. And we're really optimistic we're going to see that when the market resets with LNG exports. But -- that's kind of what we're looking for.

我想說，我們真的希望看到價格接近或高於 3 美元，我認為在它真正滿足轉移大量資本的標準之前，但這也是石油與天然氣比率的函數。我們確實希望看到石油與天然氣的比例持續保持在 20:1 左右。我們非常樂觀地看到，當市場隨著液化天然氣出口而重置時，我們將會看到這一點。但是——這正是我們正在尋找的。

I appreciate that, Tom. My follow-up is on the Anadarko. I seem to remember that the geology there being quite complex. So wondering if you can expand on what the team accomplished last year to give you more confidence to reengage in the capital program.

我很感激，湯姆。我的後續行動是阿納達科號。我記得那裡的地質好像挺複雜的。因此，您想知道是否可以擴展團隊去年的成就，讓您更有信心重新參與資本計畫。

Well, geology is complex across our portfolio. And if you don't, I have to catch myself or I'll spend the rest of the call talking about geology. But what's most important is that we've tested this section, we've got a lot of calibration and we understand the stratigraphic variation, we understand the oil/gas complex ratio variation and we understand the pressure and drilling challenges. So I think we're highly calibrated.

嗯，我們的產品組合中地質學很複雜。如果你不這樣做，我就必須控制住自己，否則我將在通話的剩餘時間裡談論地質學。但最重要的是，我們已經測試了這一部分，我們進行了大量校準，我們了解地層變化，我們了解石油/天然氣複雜比率變化，我們了解壓力和鑽井挑戰。所以我認為我們已經高度校準了。

So look, complex geology is a bigger issue at the early phases of development than when you've got that calibration, and we feel really confident that we understand the geological overprint.

所以看，複雜的地質在開發的早期階段是一個比校準時更大的問題，我們非常有信心理解地質疊印。

Your next question comes from the line of David Deckelbaum with TD Cowen.

你的下一個問題來自 David Deckelbaum 和 TD Cowen 的對話。

I was curious just if you could go into -- just obviously, the program this year is shifting more or, I guess, it's high grading a bit more into the Lower Marcellus. I think that in your multiyear outlook, you sort of assume that Marcellus production comes back up, I guess, about 100 million a day. And I guess it's averaging in that 2.2 Bcf range versus 2.3 Bcf last year.

我很好奇你是否可以進入——很明顯，今年的項目發生了更多的變化，或者，我猜，它的等級更高，進入了下馬塞勒斯。我認為，在你的多年展望中，你有點假設 Marcellus 的產量會恢復，我猜，每天大約 1 億個。我猜其平均值在 2.2 Bcf 範圍內，而去年為 2.3 Bcf。

Can you talk about the considerations of inventory management and how that mix of lower versus upper is looking over time? Is this -- it seems like there is a multiyear shift now where you're going to be emphasizing the lower a bit more in the lower price environment. But just wondering if there's more nuance to it. And if your thoughts have changed on the inventory management side there?

您能否談談庫存管理的考慮因素以及隨著時間的推移，較低與較高的混合情況如何？是這樣嗎——現在似乎有一個多年的轉變，你將在較低的價格環境中更多地強調較低的價格。但只是想知道是否還有更多細微差別。您在庫存管理方面的想法是否改變了？

Our thoughts really haven't changed. As we -- I would just repeat what we've said in the past. We've talked about a reduced inventory in the Lower Marcellus. I think if we were heavy on the Lower Marcellus, we'd probably be talking about a 3- to 5-year inventory at this point, 3 to 6 maybe depending on how -- our level of activity. Our inventory is longer than that now as we lowered our investment. But it's really a function of what's available to us. And that's the function of our gathering system where we think we have additional capacity.

我們的想法確實沒有改變。作為我們——我只想重複我們過去說過的話。我們已經談到了下馬塞勒斯庫存的減少。我認為，如果我們對下馬塞勒斯地區的庫存量很大，那麼我們此時可能會討論 3 到 5 年的庫存，3 到 6 年可能取決於我們的活動水平。由於我們減少了投資，我們的庫存比現在更長。但這實際上是我們可用的功能。這就是我們的收集系統的功能，我們認為我們有額外的能力。

But there's also an area of this field that's opened up to us that we're out exploiting and we're really glad to be there and getting after some of the really, really productive rock.

但這個領域還有一個領域向我們開放，我們正在開發，我們真的很高興能夠在那裡並尋找一些真正非常富有成效的岩石。

So we'll be drilling in Lower Marcellus for a long, long time. So when we quote inventory numbers, it's really strongly overprint by which formation we're drilling in. But -- the Lower is going to be a significant part of our program for a number of years.

因此，我們將在下馬塞勒斯進行很長一段時間的鑽探。因此，當我們引用庫存數據時，它確實與我們正在鑽探的地層有很大的重疊。但是，下層將在未來幾年內成為我們計劃的重要組成部分。

Just also curious on the Permian embedded in this multiyear 5-plus percent oil growth outlook through '26. How many sort of projects similar to the size of Windham Row are you baking in, I guess, for a year? I know that there was an expectation that we would see sort of a large-scale project every year to 1.5 years. Is that still kind of the cadence baked into the multiyear guide? Or are there some early learnings from Windham Row that are kind of iterating that process now?

我也對二疊紀盆地感到好奇，該盆地是否包含在到 26 年的多年石油增長 5% 以上的前景中。我想，一年來，你會參與多少種與 Windham Row 規模相似的計畫？我知道人們期望我們每年到 1.5 年都會看到一個大型專案。這仍然是多年指南中的節奏嗎？或者，是否有一些從 Windham Row 獲得的早期經驗正在重複這一過程？

Yes, David, this is Blake. I'll take that one. Right now, we really expect to do a row project almost every single year. And I know that it's kind of scary to talk about a 51-well development. But I think it's important to remember, these are 6 distinct drill spacing units that we have chosen to develop in a row to maximize efficiencies. These units are our standard Culberson 2-mile Upper Wolfcamp unit with designs from 7 to 10 wells per section, this is just really our bread and butter. I mean, we've developed many of these over the years. We're just stringing them together.

是的，大衛，這是布萊克。我會接受那個。現在，我們確實希望幾乎每年都會進行一個行項目。我知道談論 51 孔開發有點可怕。但我認為重要的是要記住，我們選擇連續開發這些 6 個不同的鑽距單位，以最大限度地提高效率。這些裝置是我們的標準 Culberson 2 英里 Upper Wolfcamp 裝置，每個部分設計有 7 到 10 個井，這確實是我們的麵包和黃油。我的意思是，多年來我們已經開發了許多這樣的產品。我們只是把它們串在一起。

Our ops teams work really hard to kind of wargame these projects and these rows to think of all the execution risks that could go on. That's why we picked up our eighth rig sooner to get a good upbuild in front of the frac crew. These projects have large multi-well pads. That means if we have any well trouble, our frac crew can pivot while we deal with the well trouble, our simulfrac part of this project. We've modeled really conservative completion timing, and that's because it's our first application of this in Culberson, but we don't really expect our electric crew to operate any less efficient than it has in the past. We worked through a lot of sand and water logistics to make sure everything has abundant sourcing. We own and operate our SWD system out there. That means we have plenty of water on demand at all time. It allows us to keep it in the pipe, so we're not building any produced water pits with this project. This is just part of our operation now. And I'd expect many more row developments for years to come.

我們的營運團隊非常努力地對這些項目和這些行進行兵棋推演，以考慮可能發生的所有執行風險。這就是為什麼我們更早拿起第八台鑽孔機，以便在壓裂人員面前進行良好的升級。這些項目有大型多孔井場。這意味著，如果我們遇到任何油井問題，我們的壓裂人員可以在我們處理油井問題時進行調整，這是該專案的模擬壓裂部分。我們對非常保守的完成時間進行了建模，這是因為這是我們在卡爾伯森的第一次應用，但我們並不真正期望我們的電力工作人員的運作效率比過去低。我們進行了大量的沙子和水物流工作，以確保所有東西都有充足的來源。我們擁有並經營我們的 SWD 系統。這意味著我們隨時都有充足的水需求。它允許我們將其保留在管道中，因此我們不會在該項目中建造任何產出水坑。這只是我們現在運作的一部分。我預計未來幾年會有更多的行開發。

Your next question comes from the line of Neal Dingmann with Truist.

你的下一個問題來自 Neal Dingmann 和 Truist 的對話。

My first question is just on the flat spend and the 0% to 5% BOE CAGR. I'm just wondering, did these assumptions include -- I'm just wondering, do you assume with those on a go-forward years? Has that ensued well productivity, improved well productivity and lower well costs? Or maybe just help me on what's involved in those assumptions?

我的第一個問題是關於固定支出和 0% 到 5% 的英國央行複合年增長率。我只是想知道，這些假設是否包括——我只是想知道，你對未來幾年的假設是否包括在內？這是否帶來了油井產能、提高了油井產能並降低了油井成本？或者也許只是幫助我了解這些假設所涉及的內容？

We don't project future advancements in advance of having achieved them. I think we will achieve them, but we don't -- we like to calibrate results. I mean, hopefully, that's not a surprise to anybody on this call. We'd not rather talk about results and promises.

我們不會在實現未來進步之前就對其進行預測。我認為我們會實現這些目標，但我們沒有——我們喜歡校準結果。我的意思是，希望這次電話會議中的任何人都不會感到驚訝。我們不想談論結果和承諾。

And I just want to say one more time. We don't manage our multiyear outlook by that production number. We look at projections of what we think is our assumed cash flow, we say how much of that cash flow do we want to invest, and that's typically in a fair way. I'm going to give a wide one, of 40% to 70%, and that allows us to achieve our shareholder returns that we've promised. And then with that, we say, okay, here's the capital, where is the best place to put it. And the very last part of that process is, what production does it generate? We don't get over our skis on that. We try to push our teams to model the most recent operational efficiencies. And then we drive them crazy, trying to get better. But production is not the input, it's the output of good, solid capital allocation.

我只想再說一次。我們不會透過該產量數字來管理我們的多年前景。我們查看我們認為假設的現金流量的預測，我們說我們想要投資多少現金流量，這通常是公平的。我將給出一個廣泛的回報，40% 到 70%，這使我們能夠實現我們承諾的股東回報。然後我們說，好吧，這裡是首都，這是放置它的最佳地點。過程的最後一部分是，它會產生什麼產品？我們在這方面並沒有克服我們的滑雪板。我們試圖推動我們的團隊模擬最新的營運效率。然後我們讓他們瘋狂，試著變得更好。但生產不是投入，而是良好、可靠的資本配置的產出。

Great point, Tom. And maybe just -- maybe a second along that same line. I'm just wondering, look at the slide that talks about the gas production. I'm just wondering, is it fair to say that you maybe have seen peak production? Or is it just -- what you're forecasting that are just the basis of what's going on with prices, and that's going to be an ultimate driver.

說得好，湯姆。也許只是——也許是沿著同一條線的一秒鐘。我只是想知道，看看有關天然氣生產的幻燈片。我只是想知道，可以公平地說您可能已經看到了生產高峰嗎？或者你所預測的只是價格變動的基礎，而這將成為最終的驅動因素。

Yes. It would not be fair to assume anything from our projection other than it's our current look at an uncertain future. We say that we have contingency plans if gas prices really recover, as we hope they will. Within our capital guide, we have plans to get back to work this year and set ourselves up for nice growth over the next 2 years. That's not a plan, but it's on the shelf, ready to go.

是的。除了我們目前對不確定的未來的看法之外，從我們的預測中做出任何假設都是不公平的。我們說，如果天然氣價格真的像我們希望的那樣回升，我們有應急計劃。在我們的資本指南中，我們計劃今年恢復工作，並為未來兩年​​的良好成長做好準備。這不是一個計劃，但它已經放在架子上，隨時可以使用。

Our next question will come from the line of Michael Scialla with Stephens.

我們的下一個問題將來自邁克爾·夏拉（Michael Scialla）和史蒂芬斯（Stephens）的對話。

Just wanted to ask about your return of capital obviously way above your target for the year. But even with the bump in the dividend in the fourth quarter, it looks like you slowed that a little bit. I wanted to ask about that, and then also the decision to bump the base dividend when you had been leaning more towards the share buybacks when you pull back on the variable dividend. Why the bump in the base dividend rather than buying back more shares?

只是想問一下您的資本報酬率明顯高於您今年的目標。但即使第四季股息有所增加，看起來你還是放慢了一點。我想問這個問題，還有當你減少可變股息時，你更傾向於股票回購，而決定提高基本股息。為什麼要提高基本股利而不是回購更多股票？

Yes. Mike, Shane here. I'll take those 2 questions. Listen, on the buyback, we remained active in the market during the quarter, but we were a little bit cautious. We were trying to kind of get a gauge whether winter and weather would materialize. And I think as it didn't, we decided to carry some of that cash over into year-end. So that's why you saw the cash balance build up to around $1 billion, which really puts us in good shape in what looks like it could be a soft gas market in 2024 to be a bit more aggressive on the buyback. So there was a little bit of a timing element to that, I would say.

是的。麥克，謝恩在這裡。我來回答這兩個問題。聽著，在回購方面，本季我們在市場上仍然活躍，但我們有點謹慎。我們試著去了解冬天和天氣是否會出現。我認為，由於事實並非如此，我們決定將部分現金結轉至年底。這就是為什麼你看到現金餘額增加到 10 億美元左右，這確實讓我們處於良好的狀態，因為 2024 年天然氣市場可能會變得疲軟，因此我們可以更積極地回購。所以我想說，這其中有一點時間因素。

On the base dividend, listen, in addition to the commitment to deliver 50% plus of our free cash flow to shareholders on an annual basis, we also remain committed to increasing the annual dividend responsibly on an annual cadence, 5% feels like a pretty good lift, but not overly excessive.

關於基本股息，聽著，除了承諾每年向股東提供 50% 以上的自由現金流外，我們還仍然致力於以每年的節奏負責任地增加年度股息，5% 感覺像是一個相當不錯的數字。良好的升力，但不過分。

So we're happy with the 5% bump. And when we get into next year, we'll evaluate it. Again, if it makes sense to do it, we would expect to continue to do it on an annual cadence.

所以我們對 5% 的成長感到滿意。當我們進入明年時，我們將對其進行評估。同樣，如果這樣做有意義，我們希望繼續以每年的節奏進行。

Your next question comes from the line of Scott Gruber with Citigroup.

您的下一個問題來自花旗集團的 Scott Gruber。

For your road development program, you've been able to push down your Delaware cost to sublet $1,100 a foot. As you reengage in Anadarko, do you think you'll be able to work down the cost structure in to play? Are you thinking about pad size, electrifying operations or any other actions to meaningfully push down that $1,300 figure?

對於您的道路開發計劃，您已經能夠降低特拉華州的成本，轉租每英尺 1,100 美元。當你重新參與阿納達科時，你認為你能夠降低遊戲的成本結構嗎？您是否正在考慮焊盤尺寸、電氣化操作或任何其他措施來有效降低 1,300 美元的價格？

Yes. This is Blake. I'm happy to take that one. Yes, we think there's always room to push our efficiencies further, and we do share a lot of our learnings across basins. But at the same time, the Anadarko is a different basin than the Permian. So it's deeper. It's higher pressure. The drilling can be more difficult. And really, what we've seen from our Anadarko team is we ran a real consistent program in 2023, so consistent drilling activity. And our crews did what they always do, they got better at it. And we saw our costs come down and get more in line.

是的。這是布萊克。我很高興接受那個。是的，我們認為總有進一步提高效率的空間，而且我們確實跨流域分享了許多經驗教訓。但同時，阿納達科盆地與二疊紀盆地不同。所以更深了。壓力比較大啊鑽孔可能會更加困難。事實上，我們從阿納達科團隊看到的是，我們在 2023 年運行了一個真正一致的計劃，因此鑽井活動保持一致。我們的工作人員做了他們一直在做的事情，他們做得更好。我們看到我們的成本下降了，變得更加合理。

They're already taking advantage, a lot of the same pad efficiencies we see in the Permian. But if we saw opportunities to enlarge projects and get more economies of scale, we'll absolutely take advantage of those.

他們已經在利用我們在二疊紀看到的許多相同的墊子效率。但如果我們看到擴大項目並獲得更大規模經濟的機會，我們絕對會利用這些機會。

Got it. And you guys had stuck with an estimate of about 5% deflation in service costs and material cost, but we're now seeing several operators obviously take actions to reduce activity in the Marcellus. Do you think you'll be able to see additional service cost savings on the top of that 5%, especially in the Marcellus on your remaining activity?

知道了。你們一直堅持服務成本和材料成本通貨緊縮約 5% 的估計，但我們現在看到一些業者明顯採取行動減少馬塞勒斯的活動。您認為除了這 5% 之外，您還能看到額外的服務成本節省嗎，特別是在 Marcellus 的剩餘活動中？

I mean, I sure hope so. We'll see how the market plays out. The -- typically, when more services become available, it does drive pricing down. We've been very strategic how we've gone into '24 with our contracts. We're very, very lightly contracted, and that's by design, so we can take advantage of any downswings. But at the same time, who we work with and making sure we have premium service providers that share our safety culture and our drive for excellence is really important to us, and our service providers need to make a return also.

我的意思是，我當然希望如此。我們將看看市場如何發展。通常，當提供更多服務時，確實會降低價格。我們在進入 24 世紀的合約時一直非常有策略。我們的合約非常非常輕微，這是設計使然，所以我們可以利用任何下滑的機會。但同時，我們與誰合作並確保我們擁有分享我們安全文化和追求卓越的優質服務提供者對我們來說非常重要，我們的服務提供者也需要獲得回報。

So we'll be working with them closely. And if there's continued movement in the market, we'll be there to take advantage of it.

因此，我們將與他們密切合作。如果市場持續波動，我們就會抓住機會。

But I don't want that point to be lost. One of the reasons we have such flexibility in our capital allocation is because we worked really hard over the last couple of years to have a great set of vendor partners and a very light amount of long-term commitments. So we really do have a lot of flexibility in both our drilling and completion services to pivot from one basin to another.

但我不想失去這一點。我們在資本配置方面具有如此靈活性的原因之一是因為我們在過去幾年中非常努力地工作，擁有一群優秀的供應商合作夥伴和非常少量的長期承諾。因此，我們的鑽井和完井服務確實具有很大的靈活性，可以從一個盆地轉向另一個盆地。

Your next question comes from the line of Kevin MacCurdy with Pickering Energy Partners.

您的下一個問題來自 Pickering Energy Partners 的 Kevin MacCurdy。

First, I want to say, we appreciate the 3-year outlook. I think you're one of the few companies in your peer group with the confidence in your inventory to provide a detailed multiyear outlook. My first question is on that outlook. Are you assuming a similar capital allocation in 2025 and 2026 as in 2024? And under that scenario, when and at what level does the Marcellus start to flatten out?

首先，我想說，我們對三年前景表示讚賞。我認為你們是同行中為數不多的對庫存有信心提供詳細的多年前景的公司之一。我的第一個問題是關於這種前景。您是否假設 2025 年和 2026 年的資本配置與 2024 年相似？在這種情況下，馬塞勒斯何時、在什麼水準開始趨於平緩？

Yes. The answer, Kevin, is no. We're not assuming a similar level of allocation. That said, it's fluid, but the model that underpins that is a reallocated number.

是的。凱文，答案是否定的。我們不假設類似的分配水準。也就是說，它是流動的，但支撐它的模型是重新分配的數字。

Okay. And under that 3-year scenario, what happens if we have a bullish gas market in 2025 and 2026, do you reallocate capital from the Permian and Anadarko back to the Marcellus? Or do you increase your overall CapEx? I know you spoke about a contingency plan in 2024, but just thinking about how you would think about that over the long term.

好的。在這種三年情境下，如果我們在 2025 年和 2026 年天然氣市場看漲，會發生什麼，您是否會將資本從二疊紀和阿納達科重新分配回馬塞勒斯？或者您會增加整體資本支出嗎？我知道您談到了 2024 年的應急計劃，但只是想一下從長遠來看您會如何考慮。

Well, you've left a very nice wide opening for me with that question. Because, I say it's always our best look at current conditions. So if we had significant recovery in the gas macro, which we hope and expect, our cash flow goes way up. And within that investment fairway, I said 40% to 70%, we probably would have the flexibility to look at increasing our capital. But none of that is enshrined in our current outlook because we don't -- there's no hope in any of the outlooks around here. But we'll react when conditions change.

嗯，你的這個問題為我留下了一個非常好的機會。因為，我說這始終是我們對當前狀況的最佳看法。因此，如果我們希望和預期天然氣宏觀經濟出現顯著復甦，我們的現金流就會大幅上升。在這個投資通道內，我說 40% 到 70%，我們可能會靈活地考慮增加我們的資本。但這些都沒有體現在我們當前的前景中，因為我們沒有——這裡的任何前景都沒有希望。但當情況發生變化時，我們會做出反應。

Our next question will come from the line of Ati Modak with Goldman Sachs.

我們的下一個問題將來自高盛的阿蒂·莫達克 (Ati Modak)。

Just curious how you view the macro setup for the gas market share. What's the risk of surprise in associated gas in the Permian? And how do we work our way through that? Are you seeing sufficient signs of supplier rationalization to suggest that we're in a better environment for '25?

只是好奇您如何看待天然氣市場份額的宏觀設置。二疊紀伴生氣出現意外的風險有多大？我們如何解決這個問題？您是否看到足夠的供應商合理化跡象表明我們在 25 世紀處於更好的環境中？

Yes. It's Shane here. I'll start off on that. Look, it's very challenging today. And as we look at the storage numbers and the weather picture as it's played out, winter to date and the way the outlook is for the next several weeks.

是的。這裡是謝恩。我將從這一點開始。瞧，今天真是太有挑戰性了。當我們查看儲存資料和天氣狀況時，迄今為止的冬季以及未來幾週的前景。

Look, we could sort of end the winter at a pretty high spot on a historical basis. Production on the other side has been incredibly resilient, probably more so than many of us have expected. It's great to see -- to hear some discipline in the marketplace. But it's unclear that it's enough, and it's unclear that it's sort of broad-based enough at this point.

看，我們可能會以歷史上相當高的水平結束冬天。另一方面的生產具有令人難以置信的彈性，可能超出我們許多人的預期。很高興看到——聽到市場上的一些紀律。但目前還不清楚這是否足夠，也不清楚目前它的基礎是否足夠廣泛。

So we're cautious on gas, and you see that in our 2024 planning and budgeting, you see that in the way we manage our balance sheet. But if it does turn and when it does turn, we'll certainly be prepared to react.

因此，我們對天然氣持謹慎態度，您可以在我們的 2024 年規劃和預算中看到這一點，您可以從我們管理資產負債表的方式中看到這一點。但如果它確實發生變化，當它確實發生變化時，我們肯定會做好反應的準備。

Great. And then you talked about this a little bit, but maybe I can approach this in a different way. your 3-year outlook on growth is on relatively stable annual CapEx. Curious what factors you've baked into that growth outlook in terms of the incremental efficiency gains. What should we expect to hear from you on that front over this time period?

偉大的。然後你談到了這一點，但也許我可以用不同的方式來處理這個問題。您的 3 年成長前景是相對穩定的年度資本支出。很好奇在增量效率增益方面您將哪些因素納入了成長前景。在此期間，我們應該從您那裡聽到什麼？

We don't bake in any incremental efficiency gains. So we take all our most recent gains in our program. We kind of stress test those by going through them extensively to make sure they're real and part of our program. And then we build them into our forecasting. And so while our expectation is our teams will continue to drive efficiencies, none of that's built into these projections.

我們不會增加任何效率提升。因此，我們將所有最近的成果納入我們的計劃中。我們透過廣泛地檢查它們來對它們進行壓力測試，以確保它們是真實的並且是我們計劃的一部分。然後我們將它們納入我們的預測中。因此，雖然我們的期望是我們的團隊將繼續提高效率，但這些預測都沒有包含在內。

Our final question will come from the line of Charles Meade with Johnson Rice.

我們的最後一個問題將來自查爾斯·米德和約翰遜·賴斯。

I have 2 questions on the Marcellus. You've addressed some of this, but I just want to make one more run at it. If we look at the decrement of $435 million in CapEx in '24 versus '23. And you look at that versus, you went from 2 rigs to 1 rig and 1 frac crew to maybe a half frac crew, it seems like the decrement in activity is smaller than the decrement in CapEx. And so what are the other pieces that complete that picture?

我有兩個關於馬塞勒斯的問題。你已經解決了其中的一些問題，但我只想再做一次。如果我們看看 24 年與 23 年相比，資本支出減少了 4.35 億美元。你看看，你從 2 個鑽井平台變成了 1 個鑽井平台，1 名壓裂人員變成了一半的壓裂人員，看起來活動的減少量比資本支出的減少量要小。那麼完成這幅畫的其他部分是什麼？

One of the things that we see is, we will finish the year with 4 pads waiting to be completed. So a lot of what we're doing in '24 is setting up '25. So it's not always showing up in the first year CapEx.

我們看到的一件事是，我們將在今年結束時有 4 個待完成的墊片。所以我們在 24 年所做的很多事情都是為 25 年做好準備。因此，它並不總是出現在第一年的資本支出中。

With -- projects have cycle times like ours and like everybody else's, you really have to have a multiyear outlook on any plan. So a lot of that is benefit of what we did last year that's currently being completed. And what happens next year is a function of what we do this year.

專案的周期時間與我們和其他人一樣，因此您確實必須對任何計劃有多年的展望。因此，這很大程度上得益於我們去年所做的工作，目前正在完成。明年發生的事情取決於我們今年所做的事情。

So the annual snapshot on capital versus production is interesting, but fairly incomplete.

因此，關於資本與生產的年度快照很有趣，但相當不完整。

Right. That makes sense. And then maybe one other question. You have on your slide, I believe it's Slide 6, you showed that 10% decline in Marcellus production for '24, but then -- and actually a slight incline for '25. What's the underlying price assumption for natural gas in that scenario where you grow again in '25?

正確的。這就說得通了。也許還有另一個問題。你的幻燈片上，我相信是幻燈片 6，你顯示 '24 年馬塞勒斯的產量下降了 10%，但隨後 - 實際上'25 年略有上升。在 25 年再次成長的情況下，天然氣的基本價格假設是什麼？

Well, we have lots of price assumptions. I would say we have strip. We run a $55 & $2.75, we run a $75 & $2.50. I mean, we have -- we run a $75 & $3.75. I'm looking at our models now. I mean we have a smorgasbord of price files that really set our -- kind of define the fairway of our economic analysis. But I would say this is probably based on the strip as a foundational forecast, and then we learn permutations from there.

嗯，我們有很多價格假設。我想說我們有脫衣舞。我們的價格為 55 美元和 2.75 美元，我們的價格為 75 美元和 2.50 美元。我的意思是，我們的價格是 75 美元和 3.75 美元。我現在正在看我們的模型。我的意思是，我們擁有大量的價格文件，它們真正確定了我們的經濟分析的方向。但我想說，這可能是基於該條帶作為基礎預測，然後我們從中學習排列。

I'll now turn the call back over to Tom Jorden for any closing remarks.

現在我將把電話轉回給湯姆·喬丹，讓他作結束語。

Well, thank you very much for joining us. We look forward to continuing to deliver. As I hope you've learned from Coterra, we really appreciate your interest and love talking about results and we intend to deliver them. So thank you so much.

嗯，非常感謝您加入我們。我們期待繼續交付。正如我希望您從 Coterra 學到的那樣，我們非常感謝您的興趣並喜歡談論結果，我們打算交付這些結果。非常感謝。

Everyone, this does conclude our conference call for today. Thank you all for joining. You may now disconnect.

大家好，我們今天的電話會議到此結束。感謝大家的加入。您現在可以斷開連線。