Coterra Energy Inc (CTRA) 2023 Q2 法說會逐字稿

Thank you for standing by. At this time, I would like to welcome everyone to the Coterra Energy Second Quarter 2023 Earnings Call. (Operator Instructions)

謝謝你的支持。此時此刻，我謹歡迎大家參加 Coterra Energy 2023 年第二季度收益電話會議。 （操作員說明）

Dan Guffey, Vice President, Finance, Planning and Analysis and Investor Relations, you may begin your conference.

Dan Guffey，財務、規劃和分析以及投資者關係副總裁，您可以開始會議了。

Thank you, Cheryl, and good morning, and thank you for joining Coterra Energy's Second Quarter 2023 Earnings Conference Call. Today's prepared remarks will include an overview from Tom Jorden, CEO and President; and Shane Young, Executive Vice President and CFO. Also on the call are Blake Sirgo, Senior Vice President of Operations; and Scott Schroeder. Following our prepared remarks, we will take your questions during our Q&A session.

謝謝謝麗爾，早上好，感謝您參加 Coterra Energy 2023 年第二季度收益電話會議。今天準備好的講話將包括首席執行官兼總裁 Tom Jorden 的概述；以及執行副總裁兼首席財務官肖恩·楊 (Shane Young)。參加電話會議的還有運營高級副總裁 Blake Sirgo；和斯科特·施羅德。在我們準備好的發言之後，我們將在問答環節回答您的問題。

As a reminder, on today's call, we will make forward-looking statements based on our current expectations. Additionally, some of our comments will reference non-GAAP financial measures. Forward-looking statements and other disclaimers as well as reconciliations to the most directly comparable GAAP financial measures were provided in our earnings release and updated investor presentation, both of which can be found on our website.

提醒一下，在今天的電話會議上，我們將根據當前的預期做出前瞻性陳述。此外，我們的一些評論將參考非公認會計準則財務指標。我們的收益報告和更新的投資者介紹中提供了前瞻性陳述和其他免責聲明，以及與最直接可比的公認會計準則財務指標的對賬，這兩者都可以在我們的網站上找到。

With that, I'll turn the call over to Tom.

這樣，我就把電話轉給湯姆。

Thank you, Dan, and welcome to all of you who have joined our call this morning. We're looking forward to discussing our second quarter results as well as our approach to the business and outlook for the years ahead.

謝謝丹，並歡迎今天早上加入我們電話會議的所有人。我們期待討論我們的第二季度業績以及我們的業務方法和未來幾年的前景。

First, some remarks on our second quarter results. We had an excellent quarter driven by production beats on oil, natural gas and natural gas liquids. Volumes on all 3 commodities exceeded the high end of our guidance. Our production beat was primarily driven by well productivity that exceeded our expectations. This was true in the Marcellus, Anadarko and the Permian. This beat was driven by many factors, including optimization of completion design, spacing, landing zone selection and better-than-expected performance from a project of 3-mile laterals. Our go-forward well productivity should closely approximate current trends in the coming years.

首先，對我們第二季度業績進行一些評論。在石油、天然氣和天然氣液體產量增長的推動下，我們度過了一個出色的季度。所有 3 種商品的成交量都超過了我們指導的上限。我們的生產節拍主要是由超出我們預期的油井生產力推動的。馬塞勒斯、阿納達科和二疊紀的情況就是如此。這一成績是由許多因素推動的，包括完井設計、間距、著陸區選擇的優化以及 3 英里支線項目優於預期的性能。我們未來幾年的油井產能應該非常接近當前的趨勢。

We are highly confident in our sustainable asset performance. Excellent results are easy to describe, but tremendously hard to achieve. It takes dedication and teamwork between our operations, marketing, midstream and regulatory teams. It takes support from our corporate engineering group, our machine learning team, our IT team and our accounting team. Mostly, it takes the dedication and passion of our field staff, who put their shoulder to the wheel 24/7, 365 days a year with a commitment to excellence and safety.

我們對我們的可持續資產績效充滿信心。優秀的結果很容易描述，但實現卻極其困難。這需要我們的運營、營銷、中游和監管團隊之間的奉獻和團隊合作。它需要我們的企業工程團隊、機器學習團隊、IT 團隊和會計團隊的支持。這主要需要我們現場工作人員的奉獻精神和熱情，他們一年 365 天，每天 24/7，全力以赴，致力於卓越和安全。

The Coterra team is operating as one, and it is a pleasure to be a member of such an outstanding team. Our vision for Coterra is one of consistent profitable growth through the cycles, a vision made possible by hard work and perseverance.

Coterra 團隊作為一個整體運作，很高興成為這樣一支優秀團隊的一員。我們對 Coterra 的願景是在各個週期中實現持續的盈利增長，這一願景通過努力工作和堅持不懈得以實現。

We expect our CapEx for the full year to fall within our previously announced annual cost guidance range. Costs continued to moderate slightly, but not as significantly as we had hoped. Slide 12 in our investor deck shows that although we look ahead to a 10% to 15% reduction in some big ticket items, we foresee a net 5% reduction in total well cost as we look ahead to 2024.

我們預計全年的資本支出將落在我們之前宣布的年度成本指導範圍內。成本繼續略有下降，但沒有我們希望的那麼顯著。我們投資者平台中的幻燈片 12 顯示，儘管我們預計一些大件項目將減少 10% 至 15%，但展望 2024 年，我們預計總油井成本將淨減少 5%。

Second, I'd like to make a few remarks regarding our approach to the business. With top-tier assets, a pristine balance sheet and few contractual service commitments, we have tremendous flexibility for 2024 and beyond. Now as ever, our mission is to generate consistent profitable growth. Having outstanding oil and natural gas assets with a low cost of supply, allows us the wherewithal to accomplish this. It takes discipline and, at times, a dose of courage. We will not stop and start our program with short-term swings in commodity pricing.

其次，我想就我們的業務方針發表一些評論。憑藉頂級資產、原始的資產負債表和少量的合同服務承諾，我們在 2024 年及以後擁有巨大的靈活性。現在和以往一樣，我們的使命是實現持續的盈利增長。擁有優質的石油和天然氣資產以及較低的供應成本，使我們有足夠的資金來實現這一目標。這需要紀律，有時還需要一定的勇氣。我們不會因商品價格的短期波動而停止和啟動我們的計劃。

We have learned over time that chasing the strip up or down is a fool's around. Our experience tells us that in a cyclic commodity business, the winners are those that can maintain disciplined consistency. Highly reactive behavior can badly backfire, especially in a world where project cycle times can be longer than short-term swings in commodity prices.

隨著時間的推移，我們了解到，向上或向下追逐地帶是愚蠢的。我們的經驗告訴我們，在周期性商品業務中，贏家是那些能夠保持紀律一致性的人。高度反應的行為可能會嚴重適得其反，特別是在項目週期時間可能比商品價格短期波動更長的世界裡。

We choose as-steady-as-she-goes approach to our program design and execution. We stress test all of our opportunities at draconian low commodity prices, so that we can deliver reasonable returns through the ups and downs of the cycles. We play to win.

我們選擇“穩定”的方法來設計和執行我們的項目。我們在嚴酷的低商品價格下對所有機會進行壓力測試，以便我們能夠在周期的起伏中提供合理的回報。我們為勝利而戰。

Finally, let me make a few remarks regarding our outlook for the years ahead. Although we are currently working on our 2024 plans, we will not be making specific comments on them. Our plans will be built with some simple considerations. First, based on range-bound assumptions of future commodity pricing, we estimate what level of total capital expenditure is appropriate for Coterra. We continuously reexamine our inventory with the goal of selecting the very best returns. We stress test these opportunities to ensure that they can withstand down drafts and pricing as well as increase in costs. We insist on flexibility, so that we can pivot if macro commodity conditions change.

最後，讓我談談我們對未來幾年的展望。儘管我們目前正在製定 2024 年計劃，但我們不會對其做出具體評論。我們的計劃將基於一些簡單的考慮而製定。首先，根據未來商品定價的區間假設，我們估計什麼水平的總資本支出適合 Coterra。我們不斷重新檢查我們的庫存，以選擇最好的回報。我們對這些機會進行壓力測試，以確保它們能夠承受草稿和定價以及成本的增加。我們堅持靈活性，以便在宏觀商品狀況發生變化時我們可以進行調整。

In long-term planning, we think of total Coterra capital. And within that framework, capital will flow from basin to basin as conditions warrant. We have a firm conviction that production is an outcome, not a primary driver. Consistent annual progress is our goal, and if smart project architecture leads to quarterly fluctuations, so be it. We'll have some large projects in 2023 and beyond, driven by our goal of achieving the best returns over the long haul. We don't get distracted by quarterly fluctuations as projects come online. Although we like production beats, our commitment is to invest for results that can withstand commodity swings. These principles are in our corporate DNA.

在長期規劃中，我們會考慮 Coterra 的總資本。在這個框架內，資本將在條件允許的情況下從一個流域流向另一個流域。我們堅信，生產是結果，而不是主要驅動力。持續的年度進展是我們的目標，如果智能項目架構導致季度波動，那就這樣吧。在實現長期最佳回報的目標的推動下，我們將在 2023 年及以後推出一些大型項目。當項目上線時，我們不會因季度波動而分心。儘管我們喜歡生產節拍，但我們的承諾是投資於能夠承受商品波動的結果。這些原則已融入我們的企業 DNA。

As we look ahead into 2024, we have options and flexibility. For example, we can drop capital in to Marcellus by more than $200 million versus 2023 and still hold the region's production flat over multiple years. We have the option to redirect the capital or to simply invest at a slower cadence. We also retain the ability to restore activity if the gas macro were to significantly recover.

展望 2024 年，我們擁有選擇和靈活性。例如，與 2023 年相比，我們可以向 Marcellus 投入超過 2 億美元的資金，但仍能在多年內保持該地區的產量持平。我們可以選擇重新調整資本方向或簡單地以較慢的節奏進行投資。如果天然氣宏觀經濟大幅復甦，我們還保留恢復活動的能力。

Although we're confident in our ability to deliver on our updated 3-year outlook as shown on Slide 5 of our investor deck, we have a wide range of options on total capital and allocation. The outstanding quality and durability of our assets, the flexibility of our capital allocation, our organizational capacity and our consistent execution are what differentiates Coterra. As always, we prefer to speak about results rather than promises.

儘管我們對實現更新後的 3 年展望（如投資者幻燈片 5 所示）的能力充滿信心，但我們在總資本和配置方面有多種選擇。我們資產的卓越品質和耐用性、資本配置的靈活性、組織能力和一貫的執行力是 Coterra 的與眾不同之處。一如既往，我們更喜歡談論結果而不是承諾。

Before I turn the call over to Shane, I want to welcome him to Coterra. Shane will be a key player in our team for many years to come. We are absolutely delighted that he has joined the team. He will make us better. Welcoming Shane is a bit bittersweet or it's on the heels of Scott Schroeder's decision to retire. Today will be Scott's last quarterly conference call. Scott's career is one for the record books.

在我把電話轉給肖恩之前，我想歡迎他來到科特拉。肖恩將在未來的許多年裡成為我們團隊的關鍵球員。我們非常高興他加入了這個團隊。他會讓我們變得更好。肖恩的歡迎有點苦樂參半，或者是在斯科特·施羅德決定退休之後。今天將是斯科特最後一次季度電話會議。斯科特的職業生涯是載入史冊的。

With Cabot, Scott was instrumental in building one of the finest companies in our sector and a defining success for the Shale era. Scott's vision and wisdom were key to the formation of Coterra and he has become a trusted adviser and dear friend to us all. We will miss Scott and wish him a fruitful and satisfying retirement. He leaves with our deep gratitude.

斯科特在卡博特的帶領下，打造了我們行業中最優秀的公司之一，並為頁岩時代取得了決定性的成功。 Scott 的遠見和智慧是 Coterra 成立的關鍵，他已成為我們所有人值得信賴的顧問和親愛的朋友。我們會想念斯科特，並祝愿他有一個富有成效和令人滿意的退休生活。他帶著我們深深的謝意離開了。

With that, I will turn the call over to Shane.

這樣，我就把電話轉給謝恩。

Thank you, Tom. It is a pleasure to be on today's call. This morning, I will discuss our second quarter 2023 results, provide details on our shareholder return program, and update our activity outlook and guidance for the third quarter and for the full year.

謝謝你，湯姆。很高興參加今天的電話會議。今天早上，我將討論我們 2023 年第二季度的業績，提供有關股東回報計劃的詳細信息，並更新我們第三季度和全年的活動前景和指導。

During the second quarter, total production volumes averaged 665 MBoe per day. Natural gas volumes grew to 2.9 Bcf per day and oil averaged 95.8 Mbo per day, which is a new high watermark for Coterra. In fact, all 3 production streams came in well above the high end of guidance. Our operations teams in all 3 regions executed nicely, which drove BOE production up 5% sequentially. The strong performance was driven primarily by positive well productivity and improved operational efficiencies. Turn-in lines during the quarter totaled 39 net wells, within our guidance of 36 to 45 wells.

第二季度，總產量平均為每天 665 MBoe。天然氣產量增至每天 2.9 Bcf，石油產量平均每天 95.8 Mbo，這是 Coterra 的新高水位。事實上，所有 3 個生產流程均遠高於指導上限。我們在所有三個地區的運營團隊都表現良好，這使得京東方產量環比增長了 5%。強勁的業績主要得益於良好的油井產能和運營效率的提高。本季度的轉產線總計 39 口淨井，在我們 36 至 45 口井的指導範圍內。

Production growth during the period was more than offset by commodity price declines, which were down 30% quarter-over-quarter on a BOE basis, driving net income and cash flow lower relative to the first quarter. Coterra reported net income of $209 million and discretionary cash flow of $705 million during the quarter. These results are inclusive of realized cash hedge gains of $84 million.

期內產量增長被大宗商品價格下跌所抵消，大宗商品價格環比下跌 30%，導致淨利潤和現金流較第一季度下降。 Coterra 報告本季度淨利潤為 2.09 億美元，可自由支配現金流為 7.05 億美元。這些結果包括已實現的 8400 萬美元現金對沖收益。

Second quarter accrued capital expenditures totaled $537 million, within our guidance of $510 million to $570 million, and free cash flow was $113 million after cash capital expenditures, which totaled $592 million. Based on strip prices, cash flow and free cash flow are projected to increase during the back half of 2023, and the company expects greater than 55% of its 2023 revenue to come from oil and NGL sales.

第二季度應計資本支出總計 5.37 億美元，在我們 5.1 億至 5.7 億美元的指導範圍內，扣除現金資本支出（總計 5.92 億美元）後的自由現金流為 1.13 億美元。根據帶鋼價格，預計 2023 年下半年現金流和自由現金流將增加，該公司預計 2023 年收入的 55% 以上將來自石油和液化天然氣銷售。

Turning to return of capital. Yesterday, we announced a $0.20 per share base dividend for the second quarter. Our annual base dividend of $0.80 per share remains 1 of the highest yielding base dividends in the industry at nearly 3% based on recent trading levels. Management and the Board remain committed to responsibly increasing the base dividend on an annual cadence.

轉向資本回報。昨天，我們宣布第二季度每股基本股息 0.20 美元。我們每股 0.80 美元的年度基本股息仍然是業內基本股息收益率最高的公司之一，根據最近的交易水平，股息率接近 3%。管理層和董事會仍然致力於負責任地每年增加基本股息。

During the second quarter, despite relatively lower commodity prices and cash flow, Coterra continued to execute its return program by repurchasing 2.4 million shares for $57 million at an average price of $23.55 per share. In total, we returned 184% of free cash flow during the quarter. The company's large cash balance afforded us the luxury to return capital in excess of our quarterly free cash flow and continue to buy our shares countercyclically at attractive prices.

第二季度，儘管大宗商品價格和現金流相對較低，Coterra 仍繼續執行回報計劃，以 5700 萬美元的價格回購 240 萬股股票，平均價格為每股 23.55 美元。本季度我們總共返還了 184% 的自由現金流。該公司龐大的現金餘額使我們能夠返還超過季度自由現金流的資本，並繼續以有吸引力的價格反週期購買我們的股票。

Based on results year-to-date, Coterra's returned $628 million to shareholders or 94% of free cash flow via our base dividend and share repurchases. We are reiterating our annual commitment to return 50% plus of free cash flow to shareholders. When taking into account recent strip prices, buyback activity completed to date and our base dividend, we expect to return well in excess of 50% of 2023 free cash flow.

根據今年迄今為止的業績，Coterra 通過基本股息和股票回購向股東返還了 6.28 億美元，即 94% 的自由現金流。我們重申每年向股東返還 50% 以上自由現金流的承諾。考慮到最近的帶鋼價格、迄今為止完成的回購活動以及我們的基本股息，我們預計回報將遠遠超過 2023 年自由現金流的 50%。

Lastly, I'll discuss refinements to our 2023 guidance and activity outlook. First on capital. We are reiterating some of the company's 2023 accrued capital estimate of $2 billion to $2.2 billion. While we are currently trending 1% to 2% above the midpoint of our guidance range, we are seeing clear signs of future cost softening on big ticket items such as rigs, steel and frac crews. Other cost categories, including labor and surface rentals have been more sticky and flat to modestly up.

最後，我將討論對 2023 年指導和活動展望的改進。首先是資本。我們重申該公司 2023 年應計資本估計為 20 億至 22 億美元。雖然我們目前的趨勢比指導範圍的中點高出 1% 至 2%，但我們看到了鑽井平台、鋼鐵和壓裂人員等大件項目未來成本軟化的明顯跡象。其他成本類別，包括勞動力和地面租金，則更具粘性，持平至小幅上漲。

Based on leading-edge service costs, coupled with the timing of our contract repricing, our best estimate based on information we have today is that we will see a 2024 dollar per foot decrease of approximately 5% as compared to 2023. We retain a substantial amount of flexibility for our 2024 capital program in all 3 basins and plan on detailing our program early next year as per our customary annual guidance release.

根據領先的服務成本，再加上我們的合同重新定價的時間，根據我們今天掌握的信息，我們的最佳估計是，與 2023 年相比，2024 年每英尺價格將下降約 5%。我們在所有3 個流域的2024 年資本計劃具有一定的靈活性，併計劃在明年初根據我們通常發布的年度指導詳細說明我們的計劃。

On to production guidance. We are increasing our full year oil guidance by 3% at the midpoint to 91 to 94 Mbo per day, driven primarily by strong well performance in both the Permian and Anadarko basins. We are increasing our natural gas and BOE guidance 2% at the midpoint on the back of solid well performance in the Marcellus. For the third quarter, we estimate production will average 640 MBoe per day, natural gas to average 2.8 Bcf per day and oil to average 89.5 Mbo per day. The sequential production decline is solely related to timing and was previously forecasted internally. As implied by our full year guidance, we expect to see a return to growth in the fourth quarter.

進入生產指導階段。我們將全年石油產量指引上調 3%，達到每天 91 至 94 Mbo，這主要是由於二疊紀和阿納達科盆地的油井表現強勁。由於 Marcellus 油井表現穩定，我們將天然氣和 BOE 指導值中值提高了 2%。我們預計第三季度的平均產量為每天 640 Mboe，天然氣平均產量為 2.8 Bcf，石油平均產量為 89.5 Mbo 每天。產量環比下降僅與時間有關，並且之前是內部預測的。正如我們的全年指導所暗示的那樣，我們預計第四季度將恢復增長。

In our investor presentation, we reiterated our 3-year outlook, which assumes the company achieves a 3-year oil CAGR of 5%. BOE and natural gas CAGR of 0% to 5% and with capital and activity that is flat to down relative to 2023 levels. One update in our presentation was a change in our oil CAGR outlook. We now expect our 3-year CAGR to be greater than 5%. This change is primarily driven by the observed strong well performance in 2023 to date. We have yet to finalize 2024 capital investment allocation by region and retain significant optionality. We will continue to allocate capital to its most productive use.

在我們的投資者介紹中，我們重申了我們的 3 年前景，假設該公司的 3 年石油複合年增長率為 5%。京東方和天然氣複合年增長率為 0% 至 5%，資本和活動相對 2023 年水平持平或下降。我們的演示文稿中的一項更新是我們對石油複合年增長率展望的改變。我們現在預計 3 年復合年增長率將超過 5%。這一變化主要是由 2023 年迄今為止觀察到的強勁油井表現推動的。我們尚未最終確定 2024 年按地區劃分的資本投資分配，並保留很大的選擇性。我們將繼續將資本分配到最有生產力的用途。

Based on recent strip and our outlook, our 2023 discretionary cash flow guidance is $3.35 billion, down from $3.6 billion in May. The decrease in cash flow is driven primarily by lower natural gas and NGL realizations. The 2023 free cash flow is now estimated to be $1.24 billion, down from $1.58 billion, which is due to lower discretionary cash flow and higher projected cash CapEx, which includes the cash impact of forecasted changes in AP at year-end.

根據最近的剝離和我們的展望，我們的 2023 年可自由支配現金流指導為 33.5 億美元，低於 5 月份的 36 億美元。現金流的減少主要是由於天然氣和液化天然氣的實現量減少所致。目前預計 2023 年自由現金流為 12.4 億美元，低於 15.8 億美元，這是由於可自由支配現金流減少和預計現金資本支出增加（包括年底 AP 預測變化的現金影響）。

Turning to a few business unit updates. The Marcellus delivered strong well performance during the quarter. Production increased 9% sequentially, driving total company natural gas volumes 2% above the high end of guidance. As previously communicated, we recently dropped Marcellus activity to 2 rigs and 1 crew. If this level of activity holds in 2024 and 2025, Marcellus capital could decline by at least $200 million per year while holding production relatively flat.

轉向一些業務部門的更新。 Marcellus 在本季度表現強勁。產量環比增長 9%，推動公司天然氣總量比指導上限高出 2%。正如之前所傳達的，我們最近將 Marcellus 活動減少到 2 台鑽機和 1 名船員。如果 2024 年和 2025 年保持這種水平，馬塞勒斯資本每年可能會減少至少 2 億美元，同時產量保持相對平穩。

In the Anadarko, our last 2 projects, which both came online in the second half of 2022, continue to outperform. We are currently fracking the 7-well Evans development, which is expected to come online during the fourth quarter. We are running 1 rig in the region during the back half of the year, which will provide nice momentum heading into 2024.

在阿納達科，我們的最後兩個項目均於 2022 年下半年上線，繼續表現出色。我們目前正在開發 7 口 Evans 井，預計將於第四季度上線。今年下半年，我們將在該地區運行 1 台鑽機，這將為 2024 年提供良好的動力。

In the Permian, we are currently running 6 rigs and 3 frac crews, 1 of which will be utilized as a spot crew. Permian turn-in lines are trending to the high end of our annual guide, largely due to operational efficiencies, including improving drilling and frac feet per day. The incremental wells are expected to come online late in the fourth quarter and contribute minimally to 2023 annual volumes.

在二疊紀，我們目前運行 6 個鑽機和 3 名壓裂人員，其中 1 名將用作現場人員。二疊紀交線量正趨向於我們年度指南的高端，這主要是由於運營效率，包括每天鑽井和壓裂英尺數的提高。新增油井預計將在第四季度末上線，對 2023 年產量的貢獻微乎其微。

Lastly, I'll touch on unit costs. Cash costs, including LOE, workover, transportation, production taxes and G&A totaled $8.27 per BOE during the second quarter, down for approximately $8.90 in the first quarter. This was well within our annual range of $7.30 to $9.40 per BOE.

最後，我將談談單位成本。第二季度每桶油當量的現金成本（包括 LOE、修井、運輸、生產稅和 G&A）總計 8.27 美元，較第一季度下降約 8.90 美元。這完全在我們每年每桶油當量 7.30 美元至 9.40 美元的範圍內。

One note on deferred tax guidance. After utilizing the bulk of our NOLs in the high commodity price environment during 2022, we expect deferred taxes to range between 10% and 20% of income tax expense in 2023.

關於遞延所得稅指導的一項說明。在 2022 年在高商品價格環境中利用我們的大部分 NOL 後，我們預計 2023 年遞延稅款將佔所得稅費用的 10% 至 20%。

In summary, despite commodity headwinds during the quarter, momentum for Coterra continues. This is supported by strong operational execution, which led to production beats for the quarter and the need to raise our annual production guidance range. The company remains well positioned to meet or exceed our 2023 as well as our 2023 to 2025 targets.

總之，儘管本季度大宗商品面臨阻力，但 Coterra 的勢頭仍在繼續。這是由強大的運營執行力支持的，這導致了本季度的生產節拍，並且需要提高我們的年度生產指導範圍。該公司仍然有能力達到或超過我們的 2023 年以及 2023 年至 2025 年的目標。

Finally, I would also like to congratulate Scott Schroeder for all his successes over his 28-year career at Cabot and Coterra. He has been instrumental to creating a bright future at Coterra that we enjoy today. I'd like to personally thank him for all his efforts and the support he has provided me over the past month.

最後，我還要祝賀 Scott Schroeder 在 Cabot 和 Coterra 28 年的職業生涯中取得的所有成功。他為 Coterra 創造我們今天所享有的光明未來做出了重要貢獻。我想親自感謝他在過去一個月里為我所做的一切努力和支持。

With that, I'll turn the call back to the operator for Q&A.

這樣，我會將電話轉回給接線員進行問答。

(Operator Instructions) Your first question is from Nitin Kumar of Mizuho Securities.

（操作員指令）您的第一個問題來自瑞穗證券的 Nitin Kumar。

First of all, congratulations, Scott, on your retirement, and congrats Shane on the new role. I want to start by unpacking -- sorry, congrats. I want to start by unpacking the guide for third quarter a little bit. In your prepared remarks, you emphasized that the beat in the second quarter came from improved productivity, but you're looking for about 7% decline in oil. Could you just walk us through maybe the cadence of completions for the rest of the year? And just kind of what leads to this guide?

首先，祝賀斯科特退休，並祝賀肖恩擔任新職務。我想先拆開包裝——抱歉，恭喜。我想首先稍微解開第三季度的指南。在您準備好的講話中，您強調第二季度的增長來自生產力的提高，但您預計石油價格將下降 7% 左右。您能否向我們介紹一下今年剩餘時間的完工節奏？是什麼導致了本指南的誕生？

Nitin, it's completely project timing and when projects come on. We're in the process of bringing online what we call our mid- (inaudible), which is 23 wells. And so the timing of when those come on as we complete that row is strongly driving our production cadence. We've got a -- the next project, our Red Hills asset in New Mexico that will come on over the third and fourth quarter. We also, in the second quarter, had a nice pleasant surprise with the overperformance of 3-mile project, 4 wells in Reeves County. It's completely project timing, our productivity is surprising us significantly to the upside. And as Shane said in his remarks, this was part of our plan. This is not a surprise to us, nor is it a concern.

Nitin，這完全是項目時機和項目開始的時間。我們正在將我們所說的中期（聽不清），即 23 口井上線。因此，當我們完成該行時，這些時間發生的時間強烈地推動了我們的生產節奏。我們有一個——下一個項目，我們在新墨西哥州的紅山資產，將在第三和第四季度啟動。在第二季度，我們還對里夫斯縣 3 英里項目、4 口井的優異表現感到驚喜。這完全是項目時間安排，我們的生產力顯著提高，令人驚訝。正如謝恩在講話中所說，這是我們計劃的一部分。這對我們來說並不奇怪，也不令人擔憂。

Got it. I guess, as my follow-up, I want to touch a little bit about the cash return. We saw you against a tough commodity tape dip into the cash balance a bit and return. I think it was 185% of free cash flow. Could you talk a little bit about how do you see -- you have, I think, $840 million at the end of the quarter. How do you balance between maintaining some cash, being countercyclical in your buybacks? And how you're looking at it sort of longer term?

知道了。我想，作為我的後續行動，我想談談現金回報。我們看到你在艱難的大宗商品行情中稍微動用現金餘額並返回。我認為這是自由現金流的 185%。您能否談談您的看法 - 我認為您在本季度末擁有 8.4 億美元。您如何在保留一些現金和逆週期回購之間取得平衡？從長遠來看，您如何看待它？

Yes. Thank you. I'll take that. Listen, when I say on the return of capital program, first of all, the company looks at it from a full year program cycle, and focusing on quarter-to-quarter certainly make decisions, but I think we try to keep a vision of the totality of it in mind. If you look back over time, we've maintained a cash balance over the last 6 quarters as high as almost $1.5 billion, as low as in the $600 million. So I think that's a range the company is comfortable operating within. And from there, I think as we make individual decisions quarter-to-quarter, we're going to look at what is the free cash flow, what is the outlook for the coming period, and what's our internal look at the value of the shares that are trading in the marketplace.

是的。謝謝。我會接受的。聽著，當我說到資本回報計劃時，首先，公司從全年的計劃週期來看待它，並且專注於逐季度當然會做出決定，但我認為我們試圖保持一個願景頭腦中的整體性。如果你回顧過去，我們在過去 6 個季度保持的現金餘額高達近 15 億美元，低至 6 億美元。所以我認為這是公司可以舒適運營的範圍。從那時起，我認為當我們每個季度做出個人決策時，我們將看看自由現金流是多少，未來一段時間的前景是什麼，以及我們對公司價值的內部看法是什麼在市場上交易的股票。

Your next question is from Arun Jayaram of JPMorgan Chase.

您的下一個問題來自摩根大通的 Arun Jayaram。

I wanted to get some more details on the slight change in your 3-year outlook. Now you're highlighting the potential to drive annual oil growth above 5%, which was 5% below before that. What is driving that slight change? And does that contemplate the potential reinvestment of $200 million, call it, from the Marcellus to your 2 other oil plays?

我想了解有關您對 3 年前景的細微變化的更多詳細信息。現在，您強調了推動石油年增長率超過 5% 的潛力，而在此之前，石油增長率低了 5%。是什麼推動了這一微小的變化？這是否考慮到從 Marcellus 到另外 2 個石油項目的 2 億美元的潛在再投資？

Yes, Arun, it's well productivity is driving that change fairly and simply. And no, there's no assumption of reallocation in that 3-year plan.

是的，阿倫，生產力正在公平而簡單地推動這一變化，這很好。不，三年計劃中沒有重新分配的假設。

Understood, Tom. And what would -- as you and your team look at the 2024 outlook, just looking at strip pricing today, would you say that there's a better than 50% chance that you do decide to reallocate that just given your inventory depth in the Delaware Basin?

明白了，湯姆。當您和您的團隊展望 2024 年前景時，僅考慮今天的帶鋼定價，考慮到您在特拉華盆地的庫存深度，您是否有超過 50% 的機會決定重新分配該價格？

No, I would not say.

不，我不會說。

Okay. All right, Tom. I just wanted to get your thoughts on that. But for now, it seems like that $200 million, you haven't made a decision on it, fair enough?

好的。好吧，湯姆。我只是想听聽你對此的想法。但現在看來，那兩億美元，你還沒有做出決定，公平嗎？

That's correct. Thanks, Arun.

這是正確的。謝謝，阿倫。

Your next question is from Umang Choudhary of Goldman Sachs.

你的下一個問題來自高盛的 Umang Choudhary。

And also congratulations, Scott, for your retirement. We will miss you. And, Shane, congratulations, look forward to working with you. Let me start with the cost deflation point. I appreciate all the details, which you provide on Slide 12. You mentioned that some of your contracts are staggered, so you might not realize the full benefit in 2024. Can you remind us the percentage of your overall CapEx, which will be exposed to those cost savings? And then to be sure, this is not incorporated in your 3-year outlook?

還要祝賀斯科特，您退休了。我們會想你。而且，肖恩，恭喜你，期待與你合作。讓我從成本緊縮點開始。我很欣賞您在幻燈片12 上提供的所有詳細信息。您提到您的一些合同是交錯的，因此您可能無法在2024 年實現全部收益。您能否提醒我們您的總體資本支出的百分比，該百分比將暴露於節省那些成本？然後可以肯定的是，這沒有納入您的 3 年展望中？

Yes, this is Blake. I'll take that one. Really, what we're trying to show on Slide 12 is how our cost structure is and is not moving throughout '23. So when we built the budget, we had some strong indications that our leading cost indicators were coming down. And most of those have come to fruition. So you can see with our midyear repricings, we gained ground on rigs, OCTG, frac sand, but it's really the remaining market piece of our cost structure that just hasn't seen the same deflation.

是的，這是布萊克。我會接受那個。實際上，我們試圖在幻燈片 12 上展示的是我們的成本結構在整個 23 年期間的變化情況和變化情況。因此，當我們制定預算時，我們有一些強烈的跡象表明我們的領先成本指標正在下降。其中大部分已經取得成果。所以你可以看到，通過我們的年中重新定價，我們在鑽機、油井管、壓裂砂方面取得了進展，但這實際上是我們成本結構中剩餘的市場部分，只是沒有看到同樣的通貨緊縮。

So that part has been pretty sticky. It's a bunch of smaller services driven by really underpinned by labor and fuel, and we just haven't seen that deflation there. So all we're assuming when we do the 5% is that those leading-edge indicators on those services we've called out, maintains for a full year, whereas this year, we only got to realize them for half a year.

所以這部分非常粘。這是由勞動力和燃料真正支撐的一系列較小的服務，我們只是沒有看到通貨緊縮。因此，當我們執行 5% 時，我們所假設的是，我們所調用的那些服務的領先指標將維持一整年，而今年，我們只需要實現它們半年。

Got you. That makes sense. And then I just wanted to go back to the 3-year outlook. I'm trying to understand your earlier comments about maintaining a consistent operational program and some of the recent efficiency gains, which you have realized. What does it mean for your activity plans? Would it mean that you will drill more wells, complete more wells, more productive wells? And how does that change your thoughts around long-term capital spending?

明白你了。這就說得通了。然後我只想回到三年展望。我試圖了解您之前關於維持一致的運營計劃的評論以及您已經意識到的一些最近的效率提升。這對您的活動計劃意味著什麼？這是否意味著您將鑽更多井、完井更多井、提高產量？這如何改變您對長期資本支出的看法？

Well, certainly, we'll drill more productive wells. And with our operations team, we will achieve increasing operational efficiencies. We -- as we've outlined in our deck, in the Permian, we have a 51-well project underway, and that's remarkable and offers the opportunity for some great efficiencies. It's going to be stunningly productive. I'll say, as we look at all of our options, we look to see what's our outlook for commodity prices, how low can the commodity price fall where we would still generate a really nice return on our capital. And there is always a bit of wanting to skate where the puck is going to be on commodity pricing.

嗯，當然，我們會鑽探更多產的油井。通過我們的運營團隊，我們將提高運營效率。正如我們在甲板上概述的那樣，我們在二疊紀正在進行一個 51 口井的項目，這非常了不起，並為提高效率提供了機會。這將是非常高效的。我想說的是，當我們考慮所有的選擇時，我們會看看大宗商品價格的前景如何，大宗商品價格能跌到多低，而我們仍然可以產生非常好的資本回報。而且總是有人想在商品定價上滑冰。

So -- but we're going to be disciplined. We're not going to chase the strip, as I said, but we also like to be consistent. I mean chasing the strip works both ways. It means racing to add activity when prices are high, but it also means panicking when prices are low and dropping activity, and that can be horribly destructive to everything we want to accomplish. It could be destructive to your well productivity, it can be destructive to operational efficiency, and you can exactly time it wrong.

所以——但我們會遵守紀律。正如我所說，我們不會追逐連環畫，但我們也希望保持一致。我的意思是追逐地帶是雙向的。這意味著在價格高時競相增加活動，但也意味著在價格低時恐慌並減少活動，這可能對我們想要完成的一切造成可怕的破壞。它可能會破壞您的油井生產力，可能會破壞運營效率，而且您可能會弄錯時間。

So consistency is a luxury that Coterra affords, and we intend to exercise it.

因此，一致性是 Coterra 提供的一種奢侈，我們打算踐行它。

Your next question is from Doug Leggate of Bank of America.

您的下一個問題來自美國銀行的 Doug Leggate。

Let me offer also my thanks and gratitude to Scott for all his help over the years. And Shane, I look forward to working with you. Gentlemen, I wonder if I could start with a little housekeeping point. It's a little subtle observation, I just wonder if it's something worth talking about. If we look at your Permian production mix going back last couple of years, it seems to us -- I'll just give you the numbers here. If I go back to late '21, you were about 35%, 36% natural gas yield. End of last year, it was 34%, first quarter, it was 32%. This quarter, it's 31%. Is there something going on there? Or is it just a function of flush oil production?

我還要向斯科特多年來的幫助表示感謝。肖恩，我期待著與你合作。先生們，我想知道我是否可以從一些家務問題開始。這是一個微妙的觀察，我只是想知道這是否值得談論。如果我們看看過去幾年的二疊紀生產組合，在我們看來——我只會在這裡給你數字。如果我回到 21 年末，天然氣產量約為 35%、36%。去年年底為34%，第一季度為32%。本季度為 31%。那裡有什麼事情嗎？或者這只是衝油產量的函數？

We -- if there's some overprint of it, we're not aware of. I think it's -- yes, it may be a function of some of our spacing and getting spacing right, so that we're not seeing GOR increases rapidly on some of our developments. But overall, we see a fairly consistent analysis of our assets. Blake, do you want to comment on that?

我們——如果有一些疊印，我們並不知道。我認為這是——是的，這可能是我們的一些間距和正確間距的函數，因此我們不會看到我們的一些開發中的 GOR 迅速增加。但總體而言，我們對資產的分析相當一致。布萊克，你想對此發表評論嗎？

Yes. I'd just say, our program is driven by constantly high-grading. And so in the Permian, that means our oils projects come to the [flush]. So our team is doing a great job with that. I'm not surprised that it went on.

是的。我只想說，我們的計劃是由不斷的高分驅動的。因此，在二疊紀，這意味著我們的石油項目即將完成。所以我們的團隊在這方面做得很好。我對這種情況持續下去並不感到驚訝。

Okay. I just wondered if there was something different about what you guys are doing, but thank you for that. My follow-up is really a clarification question on the earlier comments about spending. Shane, you touched on the Marcellus and your activity level obviously dropped earlier this year. So understanding everything Tom said about accepting the growth as an output. It sounds like you're signaling that for the current level of activity, you're -- your CapEx could reasonably be in the $ 1.9 billion, maybe even lower range. Am I reading that wrong? Or can you just elaborate a little bit on what you were trying to signal there?

好的。我只是想知道你們所做的事情是否有什麼不同，但謝謝你們。我的後續行動實際上是對之前有關支出的評論的澄清問題。 Shane，你提到了 Marcellus，今年早些時候你的活動水平明顯下降了。所以理解湯姆所說的關於接受增長作為產出的一切。聽起來您似乎在暗示，對於當前的活動水平，您的資本支出可能合理地在 19 億美元，甚至可能更低的範圍內。我讀錯了嗎？或者你能詳細說明一下你試圖在那裡發出的信號嗎？

Yes. Look, I think what I was trying to say is we currently have 2 rigs running and 1 crew in the Marcellus. And if we were to maintain that level of activity into the future, that our annual capital would be $200 million lower in the Marcellus area. So I think that's -- that was sort of the message that we're trying to deliver based on where activity is today.

是的。聽著，我想我想說的是，我們目前有 2 台鑽機在運行，1 名工作人員在 Marcellus 上。如果我們未來保持這種活動水平，我們在馬塞勒斯地區的年資本將減少 2 億美元。所以我認為這就是我們試圖根據今天的活動情況傳遞的信息。

And that holds you flat in the Marcellus?

這能讓你在馬塞勒斯保持平坦嗎？

Battles production flat in the Marcellus.

戰斗在馬塞勒斯的生產單位。

Your next question is from Michael Scala of Stephens.

您的下一個問題來自斯蒂芬斯的邁克爾·斯卡拉。

I'll offer my congratulations to both Scott and Shane as well. Curious if any of your investors are telling you that they don't want to see oil growth of more than 5% over the next few years. Tom, you mentioned the flexibility that you have, but you don't want to be reactionary. What are your thoughts around potentially cutting CapEx and just holding production flat?

我也會向斯科特和肖恩表示祝賀。很好奇是否有投資者告訴您，他們不希望看到未來幾年石油增長超過 5%。湯姆，你提到了你所擁有的靈活性，但你不想變得保守。您對可能削減資本支出並保持產量持平有何看法？

Mike, we've got a wide range of investors, as you can imagine. We have different voices. Quite frankly, we have some investors that tell us that if anybody is earning the right to grow, it's this team. We have other investors that are -- feel differently. We always enjoy conversations with our investors in getting feedback, and we'll certainly be doing that on the heels of this call. But I think the investors that I think resonate with our story are looking for consistency, and they're not buying Coterra to just ride a wave up or down. They want to see some progress. And that's what we're here to do.

邁克，正如你想像的那樣，我們有各種各樣的投資者。我們有不同的聲音。坦率地說，我們的一些投資者告訴我們，如果有人獲得了發展的權利，那就是這個團隊。我們還有其他投資者有不同的看法。我們總是喜歡與投資者進行對話以獲取反饋，我們肯定會在這次電話會議之後這樣做。但我認為與我們的故事產生共鳴的投資者正在尋求一致性，他們購買 Coterra 並不是為了順應潮流。他們希望看到一些進展。這就是我們來這裡要做的。

Makes sense. Tom, you mentioned that Culberson row 51-well project seems like an exceptionally large group of wells there. Can you give a bit more color on what are the potential savings, where do those come in, and maybe the timing of getting those wells online?

說得通。湯姆，你提到卡爾伯森排 51 口井項目似乎是那裡的一個異常大的井群。您能否詳細說明一下潛在的節約是什麼、這些節約來自哪裡，以及將這些油井投入運行的時機？

Yes. I'll start it out, and I'll let Blake take it home. But this is exactly what our Shale era is needing. We can take advantage of infrastructure. We can take advantage of operational efficiencies. We can take advantage of certainly our electrification, and we can take advantage of minimizing any kind of parent-child interference. We can stage the wells coming online in the way that manage this reservoir. It's just really everything that the last decade has led up to in terms of taking advantage of our own technical innovations. Blake, do you want to say anything?

是的。我會開始它，然後我會讓布萊克把它帶回家。但這正是我們的頁岩時代所需要的。我們可以利用基礎設施。我們可以利用運營效率。我們當然可以利用我們的電氣化，並且我們可以利用最大限度地減少任何形式的親子乾擾。我們可以通過管理該油藏的方式來安排上線的油井。這實際上是過去十年在利用我們自己的技術創新方面所取得的一切。布萊克，你有什麼想說的嗎？

Yes, sure. I know the headline reads 51-well project, but I think it's important to share how our ops teams look at it. What we're really doing is taking 6 distinct drill spacing units and prosecuting them in 1 consistent row. So no big changes on well per section or completion design. This is all about concentrating activity to maximize efficiency.

是的，當然。我知道標題是 51 孔項目，但我認為分享我們的運營團隊如何看待它很重要。我們真正要做的是採用 6 個不同的鑽孔間距單位並將它們排列在 1 個一致的行中。因此，每個井段或完井設計都沒有大的變化。這都是為了集中活動以最大限度地提高效率。

So all those things Tom said, we're cutting down on mobs. We're parking frac crews where they can get the most pump hours per day. We're centralizing and co-mining facilities and infrastructure. When you bring all that together, all those efficiencies really add up. And so as we model this project, our dollar per foot is coming in about 8% lower than our current cohorts on average. So that's just the power of all that. What our Permian team is really doing is executing efficiencies on a grand scale coming to bear.

所以湯姆說的所有這些話，我們正在減少暴徒。我們將壓裂人員停放在每天可以獲得最多泵送時間的地方。我們正在集中和聯合開採設施和基礎設施。當你把所有這些結合在一起時，所有這些效率確實會增加。因此，當我們對這個項目進行建模時，我們的每英尺價格比我們當前的同類平均低 8% 左右。這就是這一切的力量。我們的二疊紀團隊真正所做的是大規模地提高效率。

I'll also add, we'll be bringing those wells online as we go. It's not a situation where we wait to bring 51 wells online when the last one is completed. We staged them online continuously as we're continuing to drill and complete.

我還要補充一點，我們將在進行過程中將這些油井上線。我們不會等到最後一口井完工後才將 51 口井上線。當我們繼續鑽探和完成時，我們不斷地將它們在線上演。

Your next question is from Neal Dingmann of Truist Securities.

您的下一個問題來自 Truist Securities 的 Neal Dingmann。

Scott, thanks for everything. It's been great working with you. My question first is on OFS cost, specifically. Could you guys just talk maybe, we hear a lot about cost deflation, OTCG and all those things. But I'm just wondering, Tom, maybe more or less how you all think about spot versus long-term contracts? I know you've in the past had some opinions. How you think about the 2? And is there a big pricing difference between the 2 today?

斯科特，謝謝你所做的一切。和你一起工作真是太好了。我的第一個問題具體來說是關於 OFS 成本。你們能談談嗎？我們聽到了很多關於成本通貨緊縮、OTCG 和所有這些事情的內容。但我只是想知道，湯姆，也許你們或多或少都如何看待現貨合同和長期合同？我知道你過去有過一些意見。你覺得2怎麼樣？如今兩者之間的價格差異是否很大？

Well, it depends on the particular item you're speaking of. We -- and it also depends on what you mean by long-term contract. If we have a program that we know we're going to execute even going out a year, what we'll typically do is look at what portion of that we're willing to lock in. So as you know, we really try to avoid long-term commitments because it limits our flexibility.

嗯，這取決於您所談論的特定項目。我們——這也取決於你所說的長期合同是什麼意思。如果我們有一個計劃，我們知道即使一年後我們也會執行，我們通常會做的是看看我們願意鎖定其中的哪一部分。所以如你所知，我們真的盡力避免長期承諾，因為它限制了我們的靈活性。

But for example, we'll look -- if we have 6 rigs running in the Permian, we may look at a downside commodity case and say, okay, we know for sure that we will have 3 rigs running. So we may have 3 of them on a 1-year contract and 3 of them on month-to-month. And so we really try to balance the value of the commitment against the value of the flexibility. But, Blake, do you want to say anything about that?

但舉例來說，如果我們有 6 個鑽機在二疊紀運行，我們可能會考慮一個不利的商品案例，然後說，好吧，我們確信我們將有 3 個鑽機運行。因此，我們可能會與其中 3 名簽訂為期 1 年的合同，另外 3 名則按月簽訂合同。因此，我們確實嘗試在承諾的價值與靈活性的價值之間取得平衡。但是，布萊克，你對此有什麼想說的嗎？

I think you nailed it. It's all about the value proposition. Not a year ago, we were signing contracts to hopefully keep inflation from rising. Today, we're looking at contracts where we can see deflation if we entered into longer-term deals. And so we just have to balance those things, because they can reduce our flexibility, and that's what we are on the downside cases.

我想你已經成功了。這一切都與價值主張有關。不到一年前，我們正在簽署合同，希望能阻止通貨膨脹上升。今天，我們正在研究如果我們簽訂長期交易就會出現通貨緊縮的合同。所以我們只需要平衡這些事情，因為它們會降低我們的靈活性，這就是我們在不利情況下的情況。

No. Great color. And then if I could, just on the last one, maybe a little bit on what Michael was just asking you. Just on that 51-well pad, does seem like great opportunity. Anything you could say on just details around where that is and just how you'll tackle that one?

不，顏色很棒。然後，如果可以的話，就最後一個問題，也許可以稍微談談邁克爾剛才問你的問題。就在那個 51 孔板上，看起來確實是一個很好的機會。您能就這個問題的具體情況以及您將如何解決這個問題說些什麼嗎？

Well, it's in Culberson County. It's in sort of the South Central Culberson County on the Eastern side. We call it the (inaudible) row named after landowners out there, but it's in a great area. It's well defined. We've got a lot of calibration, good reservoir, good pressure, good oil. I mean it's ready to roll.

嗯，它在卡爾伯森縣。它位於東側的卡爾伯森縣中南部。我們稱其為以土地所有者命名的（聽不清）行，但它位於一個很大的區域。它的定義很好。我們有很多校準、良好的儲層、良好的壓力、良好的油。我的意思是它已經準備好了。

Your next question is from Derrick Whitfield of Stifel.

您的下一個問題來自 Stifel 的 Derrick Whitfield。

Congrats to both Scott and Shane as well. Tom, with regard to your Q2 production beat, you noted better-than-expected well performance in cycle times in your prepared remarks. Given the degree of your oil beat and the amount of times you've referenced well productivity in this call, could you speak to the new designs or landing zones tested more specifically, which contributed to better-than-expected well productivity?

也祝賀斯科特和肖恩。湯姆，關於您第二季度的生產節拍，您在準備好的發言中指出，週期時間的油井表現好於預期。考慮到您的石油節拍程度以及您在本次電話會議中提到油井生產力的次數，您能否更具體地談談新設計或更具體地測試的著陸區，這些設計或著陸區導致油井生產力好於預期？

Well, I don't want to get specific on that. I will say that in the Wolfcamp, there's a mixture of sand and shale landing zones, and we've changed our thinking on how to best exploit those different landing zones. It's a combination of where we land our wells, how we space our wells, but also how we complete those wells? We've learned to do a little different completion, whether we're in a sand or shale. I think that we also have a perhaps slightly different viewpoint than some of our competitors on the impact of what, it's called cube drilling or some people call it tank drilling, and how to manage that. But really, it's a sum of a lot of innovations over time.

好吧，我不想具體說明這一點。我想說的是，在沃爾夫坎普，有沙子和頁岩著陸區的混合體，我們已經改變了關於如何最好地利用這些不同著陸區的想法。它既包括我們在何處著陸油井、如何間隔油井，也包括我們如何完成這些油井？我們學會了採取一些不同的完井方式，無論是在砂岩還是頁岩中。我認為我們與一些競爭對手的觀點可能略有不同，即所謂的立方體鑽探或一些人稱之為儲罐鑽探的影響，以及如何管理它。但實際上，這是隨著時間的推移大量創新的總和。

And I also want to credit our machine learning team. I know you -- a call doesn't go by or I don't say something about machine learning, but it's really been transformative and become a very, very trusted partner with our operations teams and project planning. And it's changed our thinking on some of the ways these parameters interact. Blake?

我還要感謝我們的機器學習團隊。我了解您——電話不會過去，或者我不會談論機器學習，但它確實具有變革性，並成為我們運營團隊和項目規劃非常非常值得信賴的合作夥伴。它改變了我們對這些參數相互作用的一些方式的看法。布萊克？

Yes. I would -- well spacing and frac design are a never-ending topic at Coterra. We debate them constantly, and we're -- we don't ever settle that the current design is the best. So you're seeing that across the portfolio this year.

是的。我認為井距和壓裂設計是 Coterra 永無休止的話題。我們不斷地爭論它們，而且我們永遠不會確定當前的設計是最好的。所以你今年在整個投資組合中都看到了這一點。

And for my follow-up, regarding the 4 landing zones that you were referencing, Tom, just earlier in the Bone Spring, does your testing there this year have the potential to impact the relative allocation of capital in the Permian over the next 3 years if results are as you guys expect?

對於我的後續行動，關於您提到的 4 個著陸區，Tom，就在 Bone Spring 早些時候，您今年在那裡進行的測試是否有可能影響未來 3 年二疊紀資本的相對分配如果結果如你們所期望的那樣？

I don't think it will impact the relative allocation. We have a lot of projects lined up that it will impact. I mean as we look out the next 3 years, I don't -- I think it will help us to optimize based on what we learn. We're continuously trying to optimize, but I don't think it would necessarily change our capital allocation.

我認為這不會影響相對分配。我們有很多項目都將受到影響。我的意思是，當我們展望未來三年時，我認為這將幫助我們根據所學進行優化。我們不斷嘗試優化，但我認為這不一定會改變我們的資本配置。

Your next question is from Roger Read of Wells Fargo.

您的下一個問題來自富國銀行的羅傑·里德。

Going to come back and hit some of the same, let's call it, capital efficiency, productivity questions that have been asked. But if you step back and look across, and you do have different collection of assets in some of the other companies in terms of being a pure play, you're looking at your productivity and efficiency, not so much where the gains have been, but where do you see the greatest opportunity going forward? Should we be focused on the Permian? Or is it continuing to be the Marcellus here?

我們會回來解決一些相同的問題，我們稱之為資本效率、生產力問題。但如果你退一步看，你確實在其他一些公司中擁有不同的資產集合，就純業務而言，你會看到你的生產力和效率，而不是收益所在，但您認為未來最大的機會在哪裡？我們應該關註二疊紀嗎？或者仍然是這裡的馬塞勒斯？

I think all 3 are right for increasing productivity. We're very pleased with our Anadarko Basin flowback. It's, again, surprising to the upside. Our Marcellus team has done a really, really nice job on a number of fronts. One is just optimizing our delineation, our slide deck updates, some numbers on our Upper Marcellus viewpoint, and we're seeing some encouraging results there. They're also doing a really nice job of just some operational improvements in field. There're a lot of challenges in the Marcellus that are unique to the Marcellus. And a lot of challenges are unique. I would say our operating teams across our platform are learning from one another and a lot of that operational optimization, but we really see opportunity everywhere we look.

我認為這三者對於提高生產力都是正確的。我們對阿納達科盆地的回流非常滿意。這再次令人驚訝。我們的 Marcellus 團隊在很多方面都做得非常非常好。一是優化我們的輪廓、我們的幻燈片更新、我們上馬塞勒斯觀點的一些數字，我們在那裡看到了一些令人鼓舞的結果。他們在現場的一些運營改進方面也做得非常出色。馬塞勒斯有很多馬塞勒斯獨有的挑戰。許多挑戰都是獨一無二的。我想說的是，我們平台上的運營團隊正在互相學習，並進行了大量的運營優化，但我們確實到處都看到了機會。

Blake, do you want to add to that?

布萊克，你想補充一下嗎？

Yes. Just saying the Marcellus, our team has done a fantastic job focusing on lateral length. Over 50% of our program this year exceeds 10,000 feet. We actually have a couple of wells with total measured depth in excess of 25,000 feet. So pretty light sale performance that's really helping drive down our cost per foot. In the Permian, it's all about these wells per project, these bigger developments that take advantage of project size. Our average wells per project is up about 23% just over the last 2 years. We expect that to continue.

是的。只是說 Marcellus，我們的團隊在側向長度方面做得非常出色。今年我們超過 50% 的項目超過 10,000 英尺。實際上，我們有幾口井的測量總深度超過 25,000 英尺。如此出色的銷售業績確實有助於降低我們的每英尺成本。在二疊紀，一切都與每個項目的這些井有關，這些更大的開發利用了項目規模。僅在過去 2 年裡，我們每個項目的平均井數就增加了約 23%。我們預計這種情況會持續下去。

Okay. So fair to say scale is a big contributor in the Permian -- scale of any individual development or pad?

好的。可以公平地說，規模是二疊紀的一個重要貢獻者——任何個體開發或墊地的規模？

Right. Our drilling and completion fee per day are up also. I mean our crews are hitting records on pumping hours per month. Our drilling fee per day is up 14% this year. But that's what we expect. That's what we do every year.

正確的。我們每天的鑽井和完井費用也上漲了。我的意思是我們的工作人員每月的抽水時間創下了記錄。今年我們每天的鑽井費用上漲了 14%。但這正是我們所期望的。這就是我們每年都會做的事情。

Okay. I appreciate that. And then follow-up question. I'm going to apologize for asking 2 parts within 1 question, but they go together, so role with me, if you would. The CapEx, looks like it's going to be above the midpoint for '23. It sounds like everything is pointing to lower in '24. I was just hoping you could give us a little -- a nugget here or there as to why we should have confidence that a potential outspend, even if only marginal in '23, doesn't carry through to '24?

好的。我很感激。然後是後續問題。我很抱歉在 1 個問題中問了 2 個部分，但它們是相輔相成的，所以如果你願意的話，請和我一起扮演角色。資本支出看起來將高於 23 年的中點。聽起來一切都指向 24 年走低。我只是希望你能給我們一點——一點點關於為什麼我們應該有信心潛在的支出，即使在 23 年只是微乎其微，也不會延續到 24 年？

Yes. I think that's why we gave Slide 12 to kind of give some color on deflation. When we built the budget, we were taking all the best information we had at the time and if that deflation had rolled through the entire cost structure, we feel very confident we'd be at the low end of the range, but it just hasn't materialized. We're seeing it on a few leading items, but not through the whole cost structure. So when we give the 5% going into '24, all that assumes is the gains we've got so far this year continue with nothing else.

是的。我認為這就是為什麼我們用幻燈片 12 來對通貨緊縮進行一些說明。當我們制定預算時，我們採用了當時擁有的所有最佳信息，如果通貨緊縮已經席捲整個成本結構，我們非常有信心我們將處於範圍的低端，但它只是沒有沒有實現。我們在一些主要項目上看到了這一點，但並沒有在整個成本結構中看到這一點。因此，當我們給出進入 24 年的 5% 時，所有假設都是我們今年迄今為止所取得的收益繼續下去，沒有其他任何東西。

Okay. And then could I ask one follow-up on the current deflation. What percentage is related to logistics or diesel costs or anything like that? Just noting that oil has gone back up to the mid-80s and fuel prices have followed to some extent.

好的。然後我可以詢問有關當前通貨緊縮的後續情況嗎？與物流或柴油成本或類似費用相關的百分比是多少？只是注意到石油價格已經回到了 80 年代中期，燃油價格也在一定程度上跟隨上漲。

Yes. I don't have that exact call out. I can tell you, it's not pretty much baked in dollar services.

是的。我沒有那個確切的電話。我可以告訴你，這並不是以美元服務為基礎的。

Your next question is from Kevin MacCurdy of Pickering Energy Partners.

您的下一個問題來自 Pickering Energy Partners 的 Kevin MacCurdy。

A question about the trajectory of OpEx this year. The first 2 quarters were at the higher end of guidance, and you didn't change your full year guidance. So that suggests the second half of the year would need to be at the lower end of the range. Kind of what are you seeing out there that gives you comfort on the second half OpEx, especially given the lower volumes outlook?

關於今年運營支出軌蹟的問題。前兩個季度處於指導值的較高端，並且您沒有改變全年指導值。因此，這表明今年下半年將需要處於該範圍的下限。您對下半年的運營支出有何看法，尤其是考慮到銷量前景較低的情況，讓您感到安心？

Well, I'd say our LOE is down quarter-over-quarter. So that's the big one. We expect that to continue throughout the year. We've seen a little pressure in GP&T that's not unexpected. Most of our portfolio has CPIs that are capped, but we're hitting those caps this year. But we've modeled that out. And as you can see in our full cost, we're front loaded and expect to come in, in the middle of the range.

嗯，我想說我們的 LOE 環比下降。這就是最重要的。我們預計這種情況將持續全年。我們在 GP&T 中看到了一點壓力，這並不意外。我們大部分投資組合的消費者物價指數 (CPI) 都有上限，但今年我們將達到這些上限。但我們已經對此進行了建模。正如您在我們的全部成本中看到的那樣，我們是提前加載的，並期望進入該範圍的中間。

Yes. I would say sort of on cash costs sort of as we highlighted for the quarter. In addition to LOE overall, we're down from $8.90 a BOE last quarter down to $8.27 BOE this quarter. So I think we feel like we're trending in the right area.

是的。我想說的是現金成本，就像我們在本季度強調的那樣。除了整體 LOE 之外，我們還從上季度每桶油當量 8.90 美元下調至本季度每桶油當量 8.27 美元。所以我認為我們感覺我們的趨勢是正確的。

Okay. And digging into the production guide a little bit. You mentioned that the 3-mile laterals were outperforming your expectations, and that you're seeing some improvement in cycle times. Just kind of curious how do you risk those 2 items when calculating your third quarter and fourth quarter guidance?

好的。並深入研究一下製作指南。您提到 3 英里橫向跑的表現超出了您的預期，並且您看到循環時間有所改善。只是有點好奇，在計算第三季度和第四季度的指導時，您如何冒這兩項風險？

Well, based on our experience with long laterals. I mean, long lateral performance is something that we're all still learning. As we went from 1-mile to 2-mile horizontal wells, we had to learn what the uplift from 1 to 2 is. It's depending on the reservoir, depending on the spacing, depending on the nature of the flow back. And although we have some experience with 3-mile laterals, we don't have broad experience in any 1 area. We've got a 3-mile project in several different areas, this one was in Reeves County, where the operating environment is so different. And just quite frankly, the well surprised the upside. I mean I wish I had some grand conclusion, but it just -- they flowed back a little stronger and with a little more uplift over a 2-mile than we had forecasted.

嗯，根據我們在長支管方面的經驗。我的意思是，長橫向性能是我們仍在學習的東西。當我們從 1 英里水平井鑽到 2 英里水平井時，我們必須了解從 1 英里到 2 英里的抬升量是多少。這取決於水庫、取決於間距、取決於回流的性質。儘管我們在 3 英里支線方面有一些經驗，但我們在任何一個領域都沒有廣泛的經驗。我們在幾個不同的地區有一個 3 英里的項目，這個項目位於里夫斯縣，那裡的運營環境非常不同。坦率地說，井的好處令人驚訝。我的意思是，我希望我能得出一些宏偉的結論，但這只是——它們的回流強度比我們預期的要強一些，並且在 2 英里的路程中的抬升程度比我們的預測要高一些。

Your next question is from Leo Mariani of ROTH MKM.

您的下一個問題來自 ROTH MKM 的 Leo Mariani。

I just wanted to stick with some of the line of questioning here on well productivity. You mean I think that the one that kind of stood out to me was the Marcellus in the second quarter. So material increase on the production 9%. Typically, I guess, I kind of think of the Marcellus as being sort of an older, more mature play, where there's probably not a tremendous amount of sort of tweaks and improvements that can sort of be had here. But it certainly looks like maybe that wasn't the case here in the second quarter.

我只是想繼續提出一些關於油井生產力的問題。你的意思是我認為對我來說最突出的是第二節的馬塞勒斯。因此材料產量增加了 9%。通常，我想，我認為《馬塞勒斯》是一種更古老、更成熟的遊戲，可能沒有大量的調整和改進可以在這裡進行。但看起來第二季度的情況顯然並非如此。

And it didn't seem like there were some outsized number of wells that came online, just seems like some outsized production growth. So can you maybe give us a little bit more color around why the Marcellus was particularly strong in the second quarter?

似乎並沒有大量油井上線，只是產量出現了大幅增長。那麼您能否給我們更多關於為什麼馬塞勒斯在第二季度特別強勁的信息？

Well, I would say that our team is really hitting their stride. We have a fantastic operational team, both in the office and in the field when it comes to the Marcellus. The team has done a lot to manage and understand parent-child effects and really tailored our completions around that, tailor our well spacing. And they've really done a great job in revising our forecast methodology. And we're forecasting much more accurately.

嗯，我想說我們的團隊確實正在大踏步前進。對於 Marcellus，我們在辦公室和現場擁有一支出色的運營團隊。該團隊在管理和理解親子效應方面做了很多工作，並圍繞此真正定制了我們的完井作業，定制了我們的井距。他們在修改我們的預測方法方面確實做得非常出色。我們的預測更加準確。

And just really a big shout out to them across the board. They've got some great projects staged both this year and as we look ahead. And it's a mixture of Lower and Upper Marcellus, and they've just made tremendous strides in understanding spacing, understanding completion design, understanding how to manage well-to-well interference and flowing back prudently. I mean it's just -- it's almost everything coming together at once. They're doing a tremendous job.

真的要向他們大聲喊叫。他們今年和我們展望未來都上演了一些偉大的項目。它是下馬塞勒斯和上馬塞勒斯的混合體，他們在理解間距、理解完井設計、理解如何管理井間干擾和謹慎回流方面取得了巨大進步。我的意思是，幾乎所有的東西都同時聚集在一起。他們做得非常出色。

Okay. That's helpful. And just kind of turning to CapEx. You guys said you're probably going to end up being a couple of percent over the midpoint here in '23. As I kind of looked at the sort of accrual numbers, and maybe you're looking at the cash numbers as you're kind of getting to that, so maybe you could kind of let us know if that's kind of accrual versus cash. But I think in either case, it implies a pretty healthy downturn in fourth quarter CapEx, something maybe closer to the low 500s. So I just want to make sure I'm reading that right on the capital into 4Q. And are you guys kind of looking at sort of accrual or cash when you're talking about kind of where you think you're going to end up here in '23?

好的。這很有幫助。只是轉向資本支出。你們說你們最終可能會比 23 年的中點高出幾個百分點。當我查看了應計數字時，也許您正在查看現金數字，所以也許您可以讓我們知道這是否是應計數字與現金數字。但我認為，無論哪種情況，這都意味著第四季度資本支出出現相當健康的下滑，可能接近 500 美元以下。所以我只是想確保我在第四季度的資本方面的解讀是正確的。當你們談論你們認為你們將在 23 年最終到達這裡時，你們是在考慮應計還是現金？

Leo, Shane here. Yes, as it relates to 2023, and the guidance range for the accrual is $2 billion to $2.2 billion. And what we said is we think we're trending presently that 1% to 2% sort of above the midpoint within that range. So that's really in reference to the accrual number that's out there relative to the cash number. Obviously, the cash number is going to be impacted by timing around AP between the beginning of the period to the end of the period.

利奧，謝恩在這裡。是的，因為它涉及 2023 年，應計費用指導範圍為 20 億至 22 億美元。我們所說的是，我們認為目前的趨勢是高於該範圍中點 1% 到 2%。所以這實際上是指相對於現金數量的應計數量。顯然，現金數量將受到期初至期末之間 AP 時間的影響。

As it relates to your observation on the fourth quarter, look, you're absolutely right, maybe even a little lower than the numbers you were referencing at the midpoint when you look at it, and we feel good about that. We're letting go of some spot crews sort of as we get through the end of this quarter in both the Permian and the Anadarko, and that's what's really leading to the lower activity that leads to lower accrued CapEx.

因為這與你對第四季度的觀察有關，你看，你是絕對正確的，甚至可能比你在看中點時引用的數字要低一些，我們對此感覺很好。當我們在二疊紀和阿納達科度過本季度末時，我們將解僱一些現場工作人員，這才是真正導致活動減少、導致應計資本支出減少的原因。

Your next question is from Paul Cheng of Scotiabank.

您的下一個問題來自豐業銀行的 Paul Cheng。

Tom, you mentioned that you benefit from the 3 miles well in the second quarter. Could you give us an idea then how many of the 3-mile wells that you're going to drill for the next, say, 2- or 3-year program? And also in your Permian overall portfolio, what percent of your well could have the opportunity to be 3 miles? That's the first question.

湯姆，你提到你在第二節的 3 英里跑中受益匪淺。您能否告訴我們您將在下一個（例如 2 年或 3 年）計劃中鑽探多少 3 英里的井？另外，在您的二疊紀整體投資組合中，您的油井有百分之幾有機會達到 3 英里？這是第一個問題。

The second question is talking about the larger pad, not just on pad that you expect to increase further. How you maybe manage between the better economy of scale with the larger pads, but also that maybe reducing visibility of the instant learning curve going back into the completion design and everything, given that it's larger pad size?

第二個問題是談論更大的焊盤，而不僅僅是您期望進一步增加的焊盤。您如何在更大的焊盤更好的規模經濟之間進行管理，同時考慮到焊盤尺寸更大，這可能會降低迴到完成設計和所有內容的即時學習曲線的可見性？

Thank you for those questions. We don't have a tally of our 3-mile inventory. I will say it's going to be a small part of our program generally. A lot of our lands are already developed or parsed out for 2-mile wells. And so 3 miles are going to be the exception. Go forward, I think you might see a project or 2. Marcellus probably will have the most 3-mile wells of our program just because that Upper Marcellus is wide open, and we'll be taking advantage of that fully. But Permian is going to be a rare instance.

謝謝你提出這些問題。我們沒有 3 英里庫存的統計。我想說這通常只是我們計劃的一小部分。我們的許多土地已經被開發或用於 2 英里井的開發。所以 3 英里將是例外。繼續前進，我想您可能會看到一個或兩個項目。馬塞勒斯可能會擁有我們計劃中最長的 3 英里井，因為上馬塞勒斯是敞開的，我們將充分利用這一點。但二疊紀將是一個罕見的例子。

And then as far as your question on the larger project size and the loss of the ability to cycle learnings, if I understand your question properly, that's -- that is a 2-edge sword. It also will give us the opportunity to test a lot of things, because with a 51-well program you have a lot of opportunity for control and test. One of the things that is (inaudible) in our space is if you have an individual small project and you march off and change some parameters, you don't always have that control experiment to compare it to.

至於你關於更大的項目規模和失去循環學習能力的問題，如果我正確理解你的問題，那是一把兩刃劍。它還將為我們提供測試很多東西的機會，因為使用 51 孔程序，您有很多控制和測試的機會。在我們的空間中（聽不清）的一件事是，如果您有一個單獨的小項目，並且您開始並更改一些參數，那麼您並不總是有控制實驗可以將其進行比較。

So the 51-well project will have the opportunity to have several subtests within that to have good offset control and really normalize out some of the geologic and other attributes that can cloud your conclusions. So it's a good question. We think that we're ready for a project of this size, and we do really look forward to delivering outstanding results with it.

因此，51 口井項目將有機會在其中進行多個子測試，以實現良好的偏移控制，並真正標準化一些可能影響結論的地質和其他屬性。所以這是一個好問題。我們認為我們已經為這種規模的項目做好了準備，並且我們確實期待著通過它交付出色的成果。

Your next question is from Noel Parks of Tuohy Brothers.

您的下一個問題來自 Tuohy Brothers 的 Noel Parks。

I wondered if you could talk a bit about your thoughts on sort of the risk reward of infrastructure investment going forward from here? And I'm thinking in particular about this low we're in with gas prices, oil strengthening and that makes me think, of course, about the Permian and associated gas. And I thought there's somewhat mixed signals about how that might fare with the LNG uplift on the horizon. And so just between Marcellus addition and of course being in the Permian, just your thoughts on maybe what infrastructure priorities might look like heading into LNG?

我想知道您是否可以談談您對今後基礎設施投資的風險回報的看法？我特別想到了天然氣價格的低點、石油的走強，這當然讓我想到了二疊紀和伴生天然氣。我認為對於即將到來的液化天然氣的增加可能會產生什麼影響，存在一些混合的信號。因此，就在馬塞勒斯的加入和二疊紀盆地之間，您對液化天然氣基礎設施優先事項的看法可能是什麼？

Yes. This is Blake. I'll take that one. Your first question around Waha. Waha has traditionally been pressured, but we've actually seen it open up quite a bit this year. That's with the new expansions coming online. Some of the forecast revisions coming out of the Permian, Waha is looking stronger. And there's plenty of good options there for -- to get Permian gas to LNG. We look at every single one of them. We just haven't found 1 that works for us yet.

是的。這是布萊克。我會接受那個。你的第一個問題是關於娃哈哈的。瓦哈傳統上一直受到壓力，但今年我們實際上看到它開放了很多。這是新的擴展包上線的結果。二疊紀盆地的一些預測修正顯示，瓦哈看起來更強勁。將二疊紀天然氣轉化為液化天然氣有很多不錯的選擇。我們會審視其中的每一個。我們只是還沒有找到適合我們的 1。

Up in the Marcellus, we do have room to grow if we chose to. We know the pipes we can move the gas on. It might come with a little higher cost than we're seeing now, but that's factored into our economics.

在馬塞勒斯，如果我們願意的話，我們確實有成長的空間。我們知道可以輸送天然氣的管道。它的成本可能比我們現在看到的要高一些，但這已考慮到我們的經濟中。

Okay. Okay. Fair enough. And I wonder, as far as what you're seeing in terms of some cost softening on the horizon, just wondering, are you seeing significant divergence sort of in vendor behavior from basin to basin? Are any of your basins are vendors looking sort of more anxious and more proactive about sort of working on price with you? Or is it fairly uniform?

好的。好的。很公平。我想知道，就您所看到的即將出現的成本軟化而言，您是否看到不同流域的供應商行為存在顯著差異？您的任何盆地供應商是否看起來對與您進行價格合作更加焦慮和主動？或者說是相當統一的？

Yes. This is Blake. I think it's fairly uniform. I mean there's always nuances between basins, but rigs and crews have wheels. And if the arbitrage is big enough, they'll go to another basin. But, in general, we have great service partners we've been with a long time, and we work together through ups and downs.

是的。這是布萊克。我覺得還是比較統一的我的意思是盆地之間總是存在細微差別，但鑽機和工作人員都有輪子。如果套利足夠大，他們就會去另一個盆地。但總的來說，我們擁有長期合作的優秀服務合作夥伴，我們一起度過風風雨雨。

There are no further questions at this time. I will now turn the call over to Tom Jorden for closing remarks.

目前沒有其他問題。現在我將把電話轉給湯姆·喬登（Tom Jorden）做總結髮言。

Well, thank you, everyone, and I'd like to turn the call over to Scott for some closing remarks.

好的，謝謝大家，我想將電話轉給斯科特，讓他做一些結束語。

Thank you, Tom. And thank you, everyone. It's been a tremendous ride. I'm extremely proud of what we put together here. Coterra is a great company and all of you and all the investors are in great hands. It's a unique organization. It was something that people didn't see coming, but I think 2 years into this, everybody is very happy internally, and I hope externally that it all came together. I've been tremendously blessed, and I thank all of you for your support and trust over the years and rest assured that you're in great hands with Shane and the entire Coterra team as you go forward. Again, thank you for everything.

謝謝你，湯姆。謝謝大家。這是一次巨大的旅程。我對我們在這裡所做的一切感到非常自豪。 Coterra 是一家偉大的公司，你們所有人和所有投資者都在偉大的管理之下。這是一個獨特的組織。這是人們沒有預見到的事情，但我認為兩年過去了，每個人內心都很高興，我希望對外，這一切都走到了一起。我非常幸運，感謝大家多年來的支持和信任，請放心，在您前進的過程中，Shane 和整個 Coterra 團隊都會為您提供大力支持。再次感謝你們所做的一切。

This concludes today's conference call. Thank you for your participation. You may now disconnect.

今天的電話會議到此結束。感謝您的參與。您現在可以斷開連接。