Coterra Energy Inc (CTRA) 2023 Q3 法說會逐字稿

Ladies and gentlemen, thank you for standing by. My name is Cheryl, and I will be your conference operator today. At this time, I would like to welcome everyone to the Coterra Energy 3Q '23 Earnings Conference Call.

女士們先生們，謝謝你們的支持。我叫謝麗爾，今天我將擔任你們的會議操作員。此時此刻，我謹歡迎大家參加 Coterra Energy 23 年第三季財報電話會議。

(Operator Instructions) I would now like to turn the call over to Dan Guffey, Vice President of Finance, Planning and Investor Relations. Please go ahead.

（操作員說明）我現在想將電話轉給財務、規劃和投資者關係副總裁 Dan Guffey。請繼續。

Thank you, operator. Good morning, and thank you for joining Coterra Energy's Third Quarter 2023 Earnings Conference Call.

謝謝你，接線生。早安，感謝您參加 Coterra Energy 2023 年第三季財報電話會議。

Today's prepared remarks will include an overview from Tom Jorden, Chairman, CEO and President; Shane Young, Executive Vice President and CFO; and Blake Sirgo, Senior Vice President of Operations. Following our prepared remarks, we will take your questions during our Q&A session.

今天準備好的講話將包括董事長、執行長兼總裁 Tom Jorden 的概述； Shane Young，執行副總裁兼財務長；和 Blake Sirgo，營運資深副總裁。在我們準備好的發言之後，我們將在問答環節回答您的問題。

As a reminder, on today's call, we will make forward-looking statements based on our current expectations. Additionally, some of our comments will reference non-GAAP financial measures. Forward-looking statements and other disclaimers, as well as reconciliations to the most directly comparable GAAP financial measures, were prepared in our earnings release and updated investor presentation, both of which can be found on our website.

提醒一下，在今天的電話會議上，我們將根據目前的預期做出前瞻性陳述。此外，我們的一些評論將參考非公認會計準則財務指標。我們的收益發布和更新的投資者簡報中準備了前瞻性陳述和其他免責聲明，以及與最直接可比較的 GAAP 財務指標的調節，兩者都可以在我們的網站上找到。

With that, I'll turn the call over to Tom.

這樣，我就把電話轉給湯姆。

Thank you, Dan, and thank you all for joining us this morning.

謝謝丹，也謝謝大家今天早上加入我們。

Coterra had an excellent third quarter, exceeding expectations across the board. This was the result of several factors, including outstanding performance from our top-tier assets and excellent operational performance from our organization. I want to particularly acknowledge our field employees and vendors, who are the driving force behind our outstanding results.

Coterra 第三季業績出色，全面超乎預期。這是多種因素共同作用的結果，包括我們頂級資產的出色表現和我們組織的出色營運績效。我要特別感謝我們的現場員工和供應商，他們是我們取得優異成績的動力。

Although we are pleased to announce these results, quite frankly, it's what you should expect at Coterra and what we expect of ourselves. We are not interested in being average. These results are best understood within the framework of the core thesis of Coterra. With top-tier oil and natural gas assets, Coterra can flexibly allocate capital to take advantage of changing commodity prices, changing technical innovations and changing field conditions.

儘管我們很高興宣布這些結果，但坦白說，這是您對 Coterra 的期望，也是我們對自己的期望。我們對平庸不感興趣。這些結果在 Coterra 核心論文的框架內可以得到最好的理解。憑藉頂級石油和天然氣資產，Coterra 可以靈活配置資本，以利用不斷變化的商品價格、不斷變化的技術創新和不斷變化的現場條件。

We work for our shareholders, and we believe that they are best served by a disciplined approach that generates consistent, profitable growth. We do not manage the company around production targets. We manage the company to maximize the financial productivity of our assets. We seek to grow our per share profitability throughout the cycles, which is best achieved through a combination of prudent investments and direct shareholder returns, in the form of dividends and buybacks.

我們為股東服務，我們相信，只有透過嚴格的方法來實現持續的獲利成長，他們才能得到最好的服務。我們不圍繞生產目標來管理公司。我們管理公司是為了最大限度地提高我們資產的財務生產力。我們尋求在整個週期內提高每股獲利能力，這最好透過謹慎投資和直接股東回報（以股息和回購的形式）相結合來實現。

We are problem solvers. Albert Einstein said, "It's not that I'm so smart. It's just that I stay with problems longer." At Coterra, we stay with problems longer. Staying with problems longer means that we do not simply adopt workable solutions. We demand perseverance in finding optimum solutions. This is true with our technical challenges as well as our financial challenges. We do not adopt an A-priority, zero-growth posture and operational planning. No more or no less than we assume A-priority answers to technical problems before engaging in rigorous analysis.

我們是問題解決者。阿爾伯特愛因斯坦說：“這並不是因為我有多聰明，而是因為我在問題上停留的時間更長。”在 Coterra，我們與問題相處的時間更長。更長時間地處理問題意味著我們不會簡單地採用可行的解決方案。我們需要堅持不懈地尋找最佳解決方案。我們的技術挑戰和財務挑戰都是如此。我們不採取優先、零成長的姿態和營運規劃。正如我們在進行嚴格分析之前假設技術問題的優先答案。

A key focus of our organization is iterative, operational and financial planning. We engage in exhaustive planning iterations in an ongoing effort to maximize our capital efficiency, focusing both on asset productivity and cost optimization, which also allows us to analyze and model multiple options. Dwight Eisenhower said that, "In preparing for battle, I have always found that plans are useless, but planning is indispensable."

我們組織的一個重點是迭代、營運和財務規劃。我們進行詳盡的規劃迭代，不斷努力最大限度地提高我們的資本效率，同時專注於資產生產力和成本優化，這也使我們能夠分析和建模多個選項。艾森豪威爾說，“在備戰的過程中，我一直發現計劃是沒有用的，但計劃是必不可少的。”

At Coterra, we build annual capital plans that have on-ramps and off-ramps. By limiting our long-term commitments, we retained the option to pivot capital from one area to another as conditions warrant. Our history tells us that flexibility is crucial, or we cannot predict the future. And it's not the plans that are important, it is the planning. This planning process, combined with the high energy, innovative and curious organization is the core of Coterra's strength. We do not intend to provide detail on our 2024 plans during this call. However, we are highly confident that our results will continue to be top tier, that our capital efficiency will continue to improve, and that the quality and duration of our inventory will continue to be apparent.

在 Coterra，我們制定了包含入口和出口的年度資本計劃。透過限制我們的長期承諾，我們保留了在條件允許時將資本從一個領域轉移到另一個領域的選擇權。我們的歷史告訴我們，靈活性至關重要，否則我們無法預測未來。重要的不是計劃，而是計劃。這個規劃過程，加上充滿活力、創新和好奇的組織，是 Coterra 的核心力量。我們不打算在本次電話會議中提供有關 2024 年計劃的詳細資訊。然而，我們非常有信心，我們的業績將繼續保持一流，我們的資本效率將繼續提高，我們的庫存品質和持續時間將繼續顯而易見。

As we have previously discussed, we expect to enter the year holding our Marcellus gas production relatively flat as we monitor gas macro conditions. By doing so, we can reduce Marcellus' capital by at least $200 million versus 2023, while maintaining the optionality to pivot back to the Marcellus when gas markets structurally rebound.

正如我們之前所討論的，隨著我們監測天然氣宏觀狀況，我們預計今年馬塞勒斯天然氣產量將保持相對穩定。透過這樣做，我們可以比 2023 年減少 Marcellus 的資本至少 2 億美元，同時保留在天然氣市場結構性反彈時回歸 Marcellus 的選擇權。

In February, we will provide an updated 3-year outlook. We do not expect significant deviations from our current strategy of allocating capital to its most productive use to achieve moderate, disciplined growth. Under a moderate multiyear growth strategy, our corporate breakeven defined as the ability to generate excess free cash flow after paying our healthy common dividend, will remain below $50 oil and $2.50 natural gas.

2 月份，我們將提供更新的 3 年展望。我們預計目前的策略不會出現重大偏差，即將資本配置到最有生產力的用途，以實現適度、有紀律的成長。根據溫和的多年成長策略，我們的企業損益平衡點定義為在支付健康的普通股息後產生超額自由現金流的能力，將保持在 50 美元石油和 2.50 美元天然氣以下。

Before I turn the call over to Shane, I want to close with our answer to the question, why Coterra? Coterra is a new company and one that is unique in our space. We have top-tier assets, a top-performing organization and robust revenue diversity. We operate among a field of great competitors, and we are here to compete. Coterra is designed to provide excellent financial and operational results through the cycles. Our goal is to make top-tier results routine. As I said, it is what you should expect of us because it's what we expect of ourselves.

在將電話轉給 Shane 之前，我想以以下問題的回答作為結束語：為什麼選擇 Coterra？ Coterra 是一家新公司，在我們的領域是獨一無二的。我們擁有頂級資產、表現最佳的組織和強大的收入多樣性。我們在一個充滿強大競爭對手的領域中開展業務，我們來這裡是為了競爭。 Coterra 旨在整個週期中提供出色的財務和營運表現。我們的目標是讓頂級結果成為常態。正如我所說，這是您對我們的期望，因為這也是我們對自己的期望。

With that, I will turn the call over to Shane.

這樣，我就把電話轉給謝恩。

Thank you, Tom, and thank you, everyone, for joining us on our call today.

謝謝湯姆，也謝謝大家參加我們今天的電話會議。

This morning, I will focus on 3 areas: First, I will discuss highlights from our third quarter 2023 results. Then I'll provide production and capital guidance for the fourth quarter, and update our full year 2023 guidance. Finally, I'll review where we are on our shareholder return program year-to-date.

今天早上，我將重點討論 3 個領域：首先，我將討論 2023 年第三季業績的亮點。然後我將提供第四季度的生產和資本指導，並更新我們的 2023 年全年指導。最後，我將回顧今年迄今為止我們的股東回報計畫的進展。

Third quarter total production averaged 670 MBOE per day, oil averaged 91.9 MBO per day and natural gas averaged just over 2.9 Bcf per day. All production streams came in above the high end of our guidance driven by a combination of continued positive well productivity, coupled with faster cycle times that accelerated TILs. Turn-in-lines during the quarter totaled 46 net wells, 25 in the Permian at the high end of guidance, 14 in the Marcellus at the midpoint of guidance and 7 in the Anadarko, as our Evans project came on a few weeks earlier than expected.

第三季總產量平均每天 670 MBOE，石油平均每天 91.9 MBO，天然氣平均每天略高於 2.9 Bcf。在持續積極的油井生產力以及加快 TIL 的更快週期時間的推動下，所有生產流量均高於我們指導的上限。本季的淨轉產井總數為46 口，其中二疊紀盆地25 口處於指導上限，馬塞勒斯(Marcellus) 14 口處於指導中點，阿納達科(Anadarko) 7 口，因為我們的埃文斯(Evans) 項目比之前幾週提前了幾週。預期的。

Turning to our financial performance. During the third quarter, Coterra reported adjusted net income of $373 million or $0.50 per share and discretionary cash flow of $796 million. Approximately 64% of our revenues for the quarter were generated by oil and NGL sales. Accrued capital expenditures in the third quarter totaled $542 million, at the low end of our $540 million to $610 million guidance, and free cash flow was $250 million after capital expenditures of $546 million. Total cash costs during the quarter, including LOE, workover, transportation, production taxes and G&A, totaled $7.99 per BOE, down from approximately $8.27 in the second quarter. This was below the midpoint of our annual guidance range of $7.30 to $9.40 per BOE.

轉向我們的財務表現。第三季度，Coterra 報告調整後淨利潤為 3.73 億美元，即每股 0.50 美元，可自由支配現金流為 7.96 億美元。本季約 64% 的收入來自石油和液化天然氣銷售。第三季應計資本支出總計 5.42 億美元，在我們 5.4 億至 6.1 億美元指引的低端，扣除資本支出 5.46 億美元後，自由現金流為 2.5 億美元。本季的總現金成本（包括 LOE、修井、運輸、生產稅和 G&A）總計為每桶油當量 7.99 美元，低於第二季的約 8.27 美元。這低於我們年度指導範圍每桶油 7.30 美元至 9.40 美元的中點。

One note on our deferred tax guidance. Beginning in 2022 and with greater impact in 2023, new requirements under the Tax Reform Act of 2017, require Coterra to capitalize Section 174 R&D expenditures and amortize these expenditures over a 5-year period, rather than expensing them in the year in which they occur. Our third quarter 2023 deferred income tax ratio was negatively impacted by this new requirement.

關於我們的遞延稅指引的一點說明。從 2022 年開始，到 2023 年影響更大，2017 年稅改法案的新要求要求 Coterra 將第 174 條研發支出資本化，並在 5 年內攤提這些支出，而不是在支出當年計入費用。我們的 2023 年第三季遞延所得稅率受到這項新要求的負面影響。

As such, we now expect 95% or more of our full year 2023 income tax expense to be paid during the current year. This 5% to 10% change and our percent deferred will have a minor impact on 2023 discretionary cash flow, but we felt it was worth clarifying on this call.

因此，我們現在預計 2023 年全年所得稅費用的 95% 或更多將在本年度支付。這一 5% 至 10% 的變化以及我們的遞延百分比將對 2023 年可自由支配現金流產生輕微影響，但我們認為值得在本次電話會議上進行澄清。

Looking ahead, we estimate over the next few years, our percentage of income taxes to be current will be greater than 90%. Looking ahead to the fourth quarter of 2023, we expect total production to average between 645 and 680 MBOE per day, oil to be between 98 and 102 MBO per day and natural gas to be between 2.78 and 2.9 Bcf per day. We expect accrued capital in the fourth quarter to be between $460 million and $530 million, which includes the impact of infrastructure and nonoperated activity shifting into the fourth quarter.

展望未來，我們預計未來幾年，我們的現行所得稅比例將超過 90%。展望 2023 年第四季度，我們預期總產量平均為每天 645 至 680 MBOE，石油產量為每天 98 至 102 MBO，天然氣產量為每天 2.78 至 2.9 Bcf。我們預計第四季度的應計資本將在 4.6 億美元至 5.3 億美元之間，其中包括轉移到第四季度的基礎設施和非經營活動的影響。

For the full year 2023, today, we are increasing our production guidance. Our oil volumes are now expected to come in at 94.5% to 95.5% MBO per day, up 3% from our August guide. Our BOE and natural gas volumes are now expected to be 6.55 to 6.65 BOE per day, and 2.84 and 2.87 Bcf per day, up 3% and 1%, respectively, from our August guide.

今天，我們正在提高 2023 年全年的生產指引。目前，我們的石油產量預計為每日 MBO 的 94.5% 至 95.5%，比我們 8 月的指導值高出 3%。目前，我們的 BOE 和天然氣產量預計為每天 6.55 至 6.65 BOE，以及每天 2.84 和 2.87 Bcf，分別比我們 8 月的指導值增加 3% 和 1%。

Relative to our initial February guidance, Coterra's full year 2023 production guide has increased 5% for BOEs, 7% for oil and 3% for natural gas. The incremental volumes were driven by an even split between better-than-anticipated well productivity and faster cycle times in the field.

相對於我們 2 月最初的指引，Coterra 的 2023 年全年產量指引中，京東方產量增加了 5%，石油產量增加了 7%，天然氣產量增加了 3%。產量增量是由好於預期的油井產能和更快的現場循環時間所推動的。

Based on updated guidance and recent strip pricing, we now expect to generate full year discretionary cash flow of approximately $3.5 billion, with more than 50% of revenue driven by oil and NGL sales. The company expects to invest approximately $2.1 billion or roughly 60% of cash flow, and generate free cash flow totaling $1.3 billion.

根據更新的指引和最近的帶鋼定價，我們現在預計全年可自由支配現金流約為 35 億美元，其中超過 50% 的收入來自石油和液化天然氣銷售。該公司預計投資約 21 億美元，約佔現金流的 60%，並產生總計 13 億美元的自由現金流。

On to shareholder returns. Last night, we announced the $0.20 per share base dividend for the third quarter. Our annual base dividend of $0.80 per share remains one of the highest-yielding base dividends in the industry at nearly 3%. The Management and the Board remain committed to responsibly increasing the base dividend on an annual cadence.

關於股東回報。昨晚，我們宣布第三季每股基本股利 0.20 美元。我們每股 0.80 美元的年度基本股息仍然是業內收益最高的基本股息之一，接近 3%。管理階層和董事會仍然致力於負責任地每年增加基本股利。

During the third quarter, despite relatively lower commodity prices and cash flow, Coterra continued to execute its return program by repurchasing 2.2 million shares for $60 million, at an average price of approximately $27 per share. In total, we returned 84% of free cash flow during the quarter. Year-to-date, including our base dividend and $385 million of share repurchases, we have returned $839 million or 91% of free cash flow to our shareholders. Taking into account recent strip pricing, buyback activity completed year-to-date and our expected base dividend for the year, we expect to return greater than 80% of our 2023 free cash flow to shareholders, well in excess of our 50%-plus minimum commitment. Moreover, since instituting the buyback program in 2022, Coterra has repurchased a total of 64 million shares or 7% of our shares outstanding for $1.6 billion at an average price of $25.72 per share.

第三季度，儘管大宗商品價格和現金流相對較低，Coterra 仍繼續執行回報計劃，以 6,000 萬美元回購 220 萬股股票，平均價格約為每股 27 美元。本季我們總共返還了 84% 的自由現金流。今年迄今為止，包括我們的基本股息和 3.85 億美元的股票回購，我們已向股東返還 8.39 億美元，即 91% 的自由現金流。考慮到最近的剝離定價、今年迄今完成的回購活動以及我們預計的今年基本股息，我們預計將 2023 年自由現金流的 80% 以上返還給股東，遠超過我們 50% 以上的比例最低限度的承諾。此外，自 2022 年實施回購計畫以來，Coterra 已回購了總計 6,400 萬股股票，即我們已發行股票的 7%，價值 16 億美元，平均價格為每股 25.72 美元。

In summary, Coterra's team delivered another quarter of quality -- high-quality results, both operationally and financially. We look forward to a strong final quarter of 2023, which we believe should set a solid foundation for 2024 and beyond.

總之，Coterra 的團隊在營運和財務方面又交付了高品質的季度成果。我們期待 2023 年最後一個季度的強勁表現，相信這將為 2024 年及以後奠定堅實的基礎。

With that, I will hand the call over to Blake, to provide more color and detail on our operations. Blake?

這樣，我會將電話轉交給布萊克，以提供有關我們運營的更多資訊和細節。布萊克？

Thanks, Shane. This morning, I will discuss our capital expenditures and provide an operational update.

謝謝，謝恩。今天早上，我將討論我們的資本支出並提供營運最新情況。

Third quarter accrued capital expenditures totaled $542 million, coming in at the low end of our guidance of $540 million to $610 million, primarily due to delayed infrastructure spend and lower non-operated activity, both of which we expect will move into the fourth quarter. As such, we are reiterating our full year 2023 capital of $2 billion to $2.2 billion, and continue to trend 1% to 2% above the midpoint.

第三季應計資本支出總計5.42 億美元，處於我們指引的5.4 億至6.1 億美元的低端，這主要是由於基礎設施支出延遲和非營運活動減少，我們預計這兩者都將進入第四季度。因此，我們重申 2023 年全年資本為 20 億至 22 億美元，並繼續比中點高出 1% 至 2%。

Looking ahead to 2024, we continue to expect a 5% dollar per foot decrease, based on leading-edge service costs and contract repricing. Of note, we continue to see meaningful price decreases in OCTG, rig rates and frac spreads. However, other cost categories, including labor and fuel costs, remain resiliently high.

展望 2024 年，基於領先的服務成本和合約重新定價，我們繼續預期每英尺價格將下降 5%。值得注意的是，我們繼續看到油井管、鑽機價格和壓裂價差的價格大幅下降。然而，其他成本類別，包括勞動力和燃料成本，仍保持在高位。

As noted in our investor deck in the third quarter, our Permian and Marcellus frac crews averaged 17 hours per day, up 18% from a year ago and an all-time record for our pumping efficiency. The drivers of this improvement include larger project sizes, increased wells per pad, improved water sourcing and a focus on transition timing.

正如我們在第三季的投資者報告中指出的那樣，我們的二疊紀和馬塞勒斯壓裂人員平均每天工作17 小時，比一年前增加了18%，創下了我們泵送效率的歷史記錄。這項改進的驅動因素包括更大的專案規模、每個平台的井數增加、水源的改善以及對過渡時機的關注。

Over the last few years, our company has achieved improved capital efficiency through the execution of longer laterals, combing window surface facilities and [simul-ops]. Our operations teams in all 3 bases continue to find creative and impactful ways to improve our capital efficiency. These gains couldn't be achieved without the strong execution of our world-class field staff.

在過去的幾年裡，我們公司透過實施更長的支線、結合窗戶表面設施和[同時操作]，提高了資本效率。我們三個基地的營運團隊不斷尋找富有創意和影響力的方法來提高我們的資本效率。如果沒有我們世界一流的現場工作人員的強大執行力，這些成果是不可能實現的。

We recently added a seventh rig in the Permian Basin, a few months ahead of schedule. This was driven by a recent decision to simul-frac and derisk the timing of our largest 2024 project, the Windham Row, in Culberson County. Simul-fracking has the potential to decrease dollar per foot on this project by an incremental 5%, bringing the project's total estimated cost savings to 5% to 15% versus our current Culberson County average.

我們最近在二疊紀盆地增加了第七個鑽井平台，比原計畫提早了幾個月。這是由於我們最近決定對位於卡爾伯森縣的 Windham Row 最大的 2024 年專案進行同時壓裂和規避風險。同步水力壓裂有可能使該專案的每英尺成本減少 5%，從而使該專案的預計總成本將比我們目前卡爾伯森縣的平均成本節省 5% 至 15%。

To our knowledge, this project will be the first all-electric simul-frac, powered directly from the grid. Currently, we are running 10 rigs, 7 in the Permian, 2 in the Marcellus, 1 in the Anadarko, and 3 frac crews, 2 in the Permian and 1 in the Marcellus.

據我們所知，該項目將是第一個全電動同步壓裂，直接由電網供電。目前，我們正在運行10 個鑽井平台，其中7 個在二疊紀，2 個在馬塞勒斯，1 個在阿納達科，以及3 名壓裂人員，其中2 個在二疊紀，1個在馬塞勒斯。

When looking ahead to 2024, Coterra has fewer than 25% of its rigs and frac fleets under contract. This provides significant optionality. We are in the middle of negotiations on a number of contracts, and we'll provide a detailed update in February.

展望 2024 年，Coterra 的鑽井平台和壓裂船隊中只有不到 25% 是簽約的。這提供了重要的選擇性。我們正在就一些合約進行談判，我們將在二月提供詳細的更新資訊。

Thank you, Shane and Blake. Momentum at Coterra continues to build. We're generating consistent, profitable growth. The company remains well positioned to deliver on its stated goals. We appreciate your interest in Coterra, and look forward to further discussing our results during question-and-answer.

謝謝你們，謝恩和布萊克。 Coterra 的勢頭持續增強。我們正在實現持續的獲利成長。該公司仍然處於有利地位，可以實現其既定目標。我們感謝您對 Coterra 的興趣，並期待在問答過程中進一步討論我們的結果。

(Operator Instructions) Your first question comes from the line of Nitin Kumar.

（操作員說明）您的第一個問題來自 Nitin Kumar。

Congratulations on a great quarter. Tom, I want to start with cash returns. As much as your oil performance has been impressive, as Shane mentioned, you're on track to return 80% of free cash flow this year. Some of your peers have increased the commitment or the percentage that they promised to give back. You're still at 50%. Just, if you could share some thoughts on how you're thinking about the cash return framework, and could we see it evolve in 2024?

恭喜您度過了一個美好的季度。湯姆，我想從現金回饋開始。正如 Shane 所提到的，儘管你們的石油表現令人印象深刻，但你們今年有望返還 80% 的自由現金流。您的一些同事增加了承諾或承諾回饋的百分比。你還處於50%。只是，如果您能分享一些關於您如何看待現金回報框架的想法，我們能否看到它在 2024 年的發展？

Well, I'm going to let Shane carry this one over the finish line. But look, I'm just going to say flat out, we're not interested in getting in an arms race of promises on cash return. I think you can look at what we've done. It's nicely laid out in our deck, that we have a history of being serious about returning cash to our shareholders. But as you know, Nitin, we really value flexibility, and I just don't think it makes any sense to make, quite frankly, glorified promises. We'd rather be measured by our results.

好吧，我要讓謝恩扛著這個衝過終點。但是，我只想直截了當地說，我們對現金回報承諾的軍備競賽不感興趣。我想你可以看看我們做了什麼。我們一直以來都認真對待向股東返還現金，這一點在我們的套牌中得到了很好的體現。但正如你所知，尼廷，我們確實重視靈活性，坦白說，我認為做出美化的承諾沒有任何意義。我們寧願用我們的結果來衡量。

Yes. Thanks, Tom. I think Tom laid it out really, really well, Nitin. But I would just emphasize that for the third quarter, we returned 84% of our free cash flow. For the year-to-date, we're well above that, over 90% of our free cash flow. And that 80% figure that I talked about earlier, that's a number that sort of takes into account buybacks to date, plus dividends, including an assumed hold of the dividend in the fourth quarter and doesn't assume any incremental repurchases. So that number could well go up higher by the time we get to the year-end.

是的。謝謝，湯姆。我認為湯姆把它安排得非常非常好，尼丁。但我想強調的是，第三季我們返還了 84% 的自由現金流。今年迄今為止，我們的自由現金流遠高於這個數字，超過 90%。我之前談到的 80% 的數字，這個數字考慮了迄今為止的回購，加上股息，包括假設持有第四季度的股息，並且不假設任何增量回購。因此，到年底時，這個數字很可能會上升。

If you look at the track record in the history, if you go back to the first quarter of 2022, till to date, you'll see we've been anywhere from 70% to in excess of 100% of our shareholder returns as a percentage of free cash flow, really averaging a bit over 80% over that time window. So I go back to what Tom says, looking at what we do, and judge us by those actions, but we are fully committed to returning capital in a good quantum to our shareholders.

如果你看看歷史記錄，如果你回到 2022 年第一季度，到目前為止，你會發現我們的股東回報率從 70% 到超過 100% 不等。自由現金流的百分比，在該時間窗口內平均超過80%。因此，我回到湯姆所說的，看看我們所做的事情，並透過這些行動來評判我們，但我們完全致力於向股東返還大量資本。

Great. As my follow-up, obviously, industry consolidation is on everybody's minds recently. Tom, you were very systematic and disciplined at Cimarex when you were creating your Permian position, then with the combination with Cabot and the formation of Coterra, you took a slightly different approach to building a different company. So just if you could give us your thoughts on the M&A market, where you see Coterra fitting in? And what is your strategy around consolidation from here and out?

偉大的。作為我的後續行動，顯然，最近每個人都在關注產業整合。湯姆，當您創建 Permian 職位時，您在 Cimarex 非常有系統性和紀律性，然後隨著與 Cabot 的合併以及 Coterra 的成立，您採取了略有不同的方法來建立不同的公司。那麼，請告訴我們您對併購市場的看法，您認為 Coterra 適合在哪裡？您今後的整合策略是什麼？

Well, Nitin, thank you for that question. Our strategy is simple. It's consistent profitable growth. We want to generate financial returns through the cycles. We don't want to be beholden to a particular commodity or a particular geography. We believe in operational excellence and think that being good at the business as a strong underpinning of any kind of financial runway.

嗯，尼廷，謝謝你提出這個問題。我們的策略很簡單。這是持續的獲利成長。我們希望在整個週期中產生財務回報。我們不想受制於某種特定的商品或特定的地理位置。我們相信卓越運營，並認為擅長業務是任何類型金融跑道的堅實基礎。

We don't have a problem to solve. I think the combination of Cimarex and Cabot built one of the most resilient companies in our space. And hopefully, we are in the process of proving that to our viewers. But as we look at the landscape, we would view M&A solely as an opportunity but not a necessity. We don't have a strategic goal around any kind of M&A. Quite frankly, we're cautious. We're cautious because when you invest through the drill bit, you can do that incrementally and you can pivot and adjust as conditions change. M&A involves large episodic movements that can often catch you countercyclically. So we're opportunistic. We're never going to say never to anything. We look at it all, but we're going to be disciplined.

我們沒有問題要解決。我認為 Cimarex 和 Cabot 的結合打造了我們領域最具彈性的公司之一。希望我們正在向觀眾證明這一點。但當我們審視情勢時，我們認為併購只是一個機會，而不是必然。我們沒有任何類型的併購的策略目標。坦白說，我們很謹慎。我們持謹慎態度，因為當您透過鑽頭進行投資時，您可以逐步進行投資，並且可以根據情況變化進行調整。併購涉及大規模的間歇性變動，通常會出現反週期現象。所以我們是機會主義的。我們永遠不會對任何事說「永遠」。我們會審視這一切，但我們會遵守紀律。

Shane, you have any thoughts on that?

謝恩，你對此有什麼想法嗎？

No. Look, I would just echo that -- look, the last month has seen some large-scale M&A, but really 2023 has been an active year for M&A throughout of all different shapes and sizes. And we're always curious. And if things are out there, we're always trying to figure out if there's an opportunity to -- for those things to help make us better over time. But clearly, year-to-date, we haven't seen anything that sort of checked all the right boxes. And so we're very comfortable with taking the business from where we sit today.

不，我只是重複這一點——看，上個月出現了一些大規模的併購，但實際上 2023 年是各種不同形式和規模的併購活躍的一年。我們總是很好奇。如果事情已經存在，我們總是試著弄清楚是否有機會——讓這些事情隨著時間的推移幫助我們變得更好。但顯然，今年迄今為止，我們還沒有看到任何符合所有條件的東西。因此，我們非常樂意從今天的位置接手業務。

Yes. Shane said it right. It's about getting better. And I'm particularly proud of the way this organization is performing, and very confident in saying we intend to make a routine. We would not put that at risk with something that interrupts our momentum, period.

是的。謝恩說得對。這是為了變得更好。我對這個組織的表現感到特別自豪，並且非常有信心地說我們打算制定例行公事。我們不會因為某些幹擾我們勢頭的事情而將其置於危險之中。

Your next question comes from the line of Umang with Goldman Sachs.

你的下一個問題來自烏芒與高盛的對話。

My first question was on the Windham Row development. Can you provide any details on the expectation from the program? And any color you can provide on the rig add and your plans to do derisk the project heading into 2024?

我的第一個問題是關於 Windham Row 的開發。您能否提供有關該計劃的期望的任何詳細資訊？您可以在鑽孔機上添加任何顏色，以及您計劃在 2024 年消除該專案的風險嗎？

Yes. Umang, this is Blake. I'm happy to take that one. As we've talked about, the Windham Row, is really our largest row project to date. It's just taking all of our operational efficiencies and putting them in one place. So it's several DSUs lined up together. It's not what you would consider one giant cube development. We're prosecuting the Upper Wolfcamp across one big section and one big row. And by doing that, we can concentrate our rigs, our frac crews, we can co-mingle our facilities, and we can drop our infrastructure costs.

是的。烏芒，這是布萊克。我很高興接受那個。正如我們所討論的，Windham Row 確實是我們迄今為止最大的划船項目。它只是將我們所有的營運效率整合到一個地方。所以它是幾個 DSU 排列在一起的。這不是你所認為的一個巨大的立方體開發。我們正在對上沃爾夫坎普的一大片區域和一大片區域進行起訴。透過這樣做，我們可以集中我們的鑽孔機和壓裂人員，我們可以混合我們的設施，我們可以降低我們的基礎設施成本。

So all that adds up to some pretty big cost gains. The decision to add the rig a little bit early was frankly just to get ahead of getting the wells ready. We've decided to simul-frac that row. And so simul-frac moves very quickly. You got to have all the wells ready, and we just wanted to make sure we had plenty of buffer there. So that's really the main driver.

因此，所有這些加起來會帶來相當大的成本效益。坦白說，提前一點添加鑽孔機的決定只是為了提前準備好油井。我們決定對該行進行同步壓裂。因此，同時壓裂的進展非常快。你必須準備好所有的孔，我們只是想確保那裡有足夠的緩衝液。所以這確實是主要驅動力。

It's also an electric simul-frac, and that required additional lead time for our partner.

這也是一種電動同步壓裂，需要我們的合作夥伴額外的交貨時間。

I see. That's really helpful color. I guess moving to your 3-year outlook, and we will wait for a fulsome update next year. But I wanted to get your high-level thoughts, I mean, this year, you have shown strong performance. Oil growth is 9% year-over-year -- close to 9% year-over-year. And then on Slide #14, you highlighted continued expectations for strong productivity in the Delaware going forward. How should we think about the evolution for the company over the next 3, 4 years? Any high-level thoughts you can provide there?

我懂了。這真是有用的顏色。我想轉向您的三年展望，我們將等待明年的全面更新。但我想得到你們高層的想法，我的意思是，今年你們展現了強烈的表現。石油年增 9%——接近 9%。然後在幻燈片 #14 上，您強調了對特拉華州未來強勁生產力的持續期望。我們該如何思考公司未來3、4年的發展？您可以在那裡提供任何高層次的想法嗎？

Well, I think you should think of it in terms of our history of behavior. We don't manage the company by production goals. I think I was clear in my opening remarks on that. We really seek to fund very robust projects that not only deliver outstanding returns, but have remarkable windage if the commodity price will fall, so that we know that we're getting a good return on our capital through the cycles as we can best predict them.

嗯，我認為你應該從我們的行為歷史的角度來思考它。我們不透過生產目標來管理公司。我想我在開場白中對此已經說得很清楚了。我們確實尋求為非常穩健的項目提供資金，這些項目不僅能帶來出色的回報，而且如果大宗商品價格下跌，也會產生顯著的風險，因此我們知道，我們可以透過我們能夠最好地預測的週期獲得良好的資本回報。

So we said -- so we decide how much capital we want to invest, what projects we want to fund, we do our very best job to come up with an estimate of what the production will be. And then we challenge our organization to overshoot that. And when they do, we don't view that as a negative. And so that's the way we're going to view our 3-year plan, and we really hope to be providing better and better guidance. We always like to get what we aim for, high or low. We want to hit what we aim for. And although we're proud of outperformance, it means we need to go back to drawing board and do better estimation.

所以我們說——所以我們決定要投資多少資本，要資助哪些項目，我們會盡最大努力估計產量。然後我們挑戰我們的組織超越這個目標。當他們這樣做時，我們並不認為這是負面的。這就是我們看待三年計畫的方式，我們真的希望提供越來越好的指導。我們總是希望得到我們的目標，無論高低。我們想要實現我們的目標。儘管我們為出色的表現感到自豪，但這意味著我們需要重新開始並進行更好的估計。

Your next question comes from the line of Arun Jayaram with JPMorgan.

你的下一個問題來自摩根大通的 Arun Jayaram。

I was wondering if you could -- really appreciate the Slide 17, on the Windham Row, but I was wondering if you could give us a sense of what you're doing to derisk some of the project timing and development of that large row development. In particular, I wanted to see if you could give us some insights on some of the learning from the Mint Julep project that you did this year, which maybe helps to derisk this larger project?

我想知道您是否可以 - 真的很欣賞 Windham Row 上的 Slide 17，但我想知道您是否可以讓我們了解您正在做什麼，以消除大型行開發的一些專案時間和開發風險。特別是，我想看看您是否能為我們提供一些關於您今年所做的薄荷朱利酒項目的一些見解，這可能有助於降低這個更大項目的風險？

Yes, Arun, this is Blake. I'm happy to take that one. We've learned as we've expanded these rows bigger and bigger. And while it's a big pretty slide and a long row, you need to remember this is kind of what we do day in, day out. We drilled DSUs all over the Permian, and we have to stay ahead of them, no matter where they are. This is just putting them all in one big row so we can prosecute them as one project.

是的，阿倫，這是布萊克。我很高興接受那個。當我們將這些行擴展得越來越大時，我們就了解到了這一點。雖然這是一個又大又漂亮的滑梯，還有一長排，但你需要記住，這就是我們日復一日所做的事情。我們在二疊紀各地都鑽探了 DSU，無論它們在哪裡，我們都必須保持領先地位。這只是將它們全部放在一大排中，以便我們可以將它們作為一個項目來進行。

There are lots of things we've learned along the way. [Simul-ops] is probably the biggest one by far. We built in a lot of timing estimates based on when we drill and then we frac and then we drill out our plugs. There's a lot of timing scenarios we use, including what happens if something gets stuck, what happens if something goes wrong. We call them bailout wells. We have another well ready to go that we can shift the operation to while we work on that well. And that's really how we approach it. We build a lot of flexibility into the row development.

一路走來，我們學到了很多。 [Simul-ops] 可能是迄今為止最大的一個。我們根據鑽探、壓裂和鑽出堵塞的時間進行了大量時間估計。我們使用了很多計時場景，包括如果出現問題會發生什麼、如果出現問題會發生什麼。我們稱它們為救助井。我們還有另一口井已準備就緒，我們可以在處理該井的同時將作業轉移到該井。這就是我們的處理方式。我們在行開發中建立了很大的彈性。

And Blake, just as a quick follow-up. How many wells would you expect if timing goes as planned to come online next year because I think you just started drilling the row in the third quarter.

還有布萊克，作為快速跟進。如果明年按計劃上線，您預計會有多少口井，因為我認為您在第三季才開始鑽探該排。

All of them. It will be the -- the full row will come online next year, which is 51 wells. Yes, sorry. And there won't be one big slug. It will -- as we get further down the road this first well will be coming online.

他們全部。明年將有 51 口井全部上線。是的，抱歉。而且不會有一隻大蛞蝓。隨著我們繼續前進，第一口井將會上線。

Okay. And then my second question, Tom, where do you stand in terms of the $200 million of capital that could be reallocated from the Marcellus to your other 2 assets? And maybe just a quick update on how [Dimock] Township, how that could impact or influence that decision?

好的。然後是我的第二個問題，湯姆，對於可以從 Marcellus 重新分配到您的其他 2 項資產的 2 億美元資本，您有何看法？也許只是快速更新[Dimock]鎮，這會如何影響或影響這個決定？

Well, I'll take that in reverse order. We don't see Dimock being a material influencer, one way or another. We're very pleased to be returning there, but it's not really a critical factor in any of our remarks. And then as far as the $200 million, Arun, we're still where we've been, we have flexibility there. We're analyzing our options. We've got every option in front of us and look really forward to discussing '24, when we're ready to discuss it. I mean we're still working on our plans.

好吧，我會以相反的順序來考慮。不管怎樣，我們並不認為迪莫克是一位物質影響者。我們很高興回到那裡，但這並不是我們言論中的關鍵因素。至於 2 億美元，阿倫，我們仍然保持原來的狀態，我們在那裡有靈活性。我們正在分析我們的選擇。我們面前有所有的選擇，並且非常期待在我們準備好討論時討論 '24。我的意思是我們仍在製定我們的計劃。

Your next question comes from the line of Doug Leggate with Bank of America.

你的下一個問題來自美國銀行的 Doug Leggate。

Guys, I wonder if I could ask about the Anadarko, where it sits in your thoughts on relative capital allocation for 2024. And I guess my question is around -- the guidance suggested no tils in 3Q, and yet, we obviously saw the activity there. So I'm just curious if your thoughts on the competitiveness of the Anadarko has stepped up a bit going into next year.

夥計們，我想知道我是否可以問阿納達科，它在您對2024 年相對資本配置的想法中處於什麼位置。我想我的問題是——指導建議在第三季度之前不要這樣做，但是，我們顯然看到了這一活動在那裡。所以我只是好奇你對阿納達科競爭力的看法是否在明年有所加強。

Well, thank you for that question, Doug. As you know, we love the Anadarko. It competes heads up. It offers market flexibility. It also is really coming back to force with some new targets, some new completion styles. The fact that we turned some wells online in the third quarter is just an outperformance of our execution. But I think you could expect a healthy Anadarko program next year. And it's not out of love or affection. It's out of competing for capital, and those projects are really competing for capital. And then the one other thing they've done is they've established repeatability. Now we've got a few behind us that have been repeatable, executed well, gone like clockwork, and that's what we're looking for.

嗯，謝謝你提出這個問題，道格。如您所知，我們喜歡阿納達科。它進行單挑比賽。它提供了市場靈活性。它也確實以一些新的目標、一些新的完成方式回歸。事實上，我們在第三季將一些油井上線，這只是我們執行力的出色體現。但我認為明年你可以期待一個健康的阿納達科計劃。這不是出於愛或感情。這是出於爭奪資本，而那些項目實際上是在爭奪資本。他們所做的另一件事是他們建立了可重複性。現在我們已經有了一些可重複的、執行良好的、按部就班的項目，這就是我們正在尋找的。

I guess as my follow-on is kind of related, Tom. So if I think about the indications on where costs are headed, capital costs are headed and all the moving parts in there, not just from yourselves, but from your peers. And then I also stick with the mantra that your capital program is really driven by efficiency and not by growth. I look to 2024, and I have to consider whether your CapEx guidance, either is low end of your current range or maybe have some downside risk, and I'm trying to understand, would you rather take those efficiencies and redeploy the capital and keep the capital the same? Or are you trending lower in your spending going into '24? Any early guidance will be appreciated.

我想，因為我的後續行動有點相關，湯姆。因此，如果我考慮一下成本走向、資本成本走向以及其中所有活動部件的跡象，不僅來自您自己，還來自您的同行。然後我還堅持這樣的口頭禪：你的資本計畫其實是由效率驅動的，而不是由成長驅動的。我展望 2024 年，我必須考慮你們的資本支出指導是否是當前範圍的低端，或者可能存在一些下行風險，我試圖了解，你們是否願意提高效率並重新部署資本並保持首都一樣嗎？或者說您的支出在進入 24 世紀後會趨於下降嗎？任何早期指導將不勝感激。

Yes. I'm going to give you a very vague guidance here, Doug. We'll take efficiencies every day we can find them. And to the extent that efficiencies mean we can do the same thing next year cheaper than we did this year, all else being equal. That's a wonderful outcome. And we seek to find those outcomes everywhere we look. But that -- you can infer what you will, with that $200 million, what that means. But it means we have more opportunities than we thought we would ever have because of efficiencies.

是的。道格，我將在這裡給你一個非常模糊的指導。我們每天都會提高效率，找到它們。在某種程度上，效率意味著我們明年可以比今年更便宜地做同樣的事情，其他條件都相同。這是一個美妙的結果。我們力求在任何地方都能找到這些結果。但是，你可以推斷你會用那 2 億美元做什麼，這意味著什麼。但這意味著由於效率的提高，我們擁有的機會比我們想像的要多。

We're not prepared to say whether we'll be flat, up, down, sideways. But I will say this, I think you can look for us to have a very strong 2024, based on the operational momentum, capital efficiency, asset productivity and operational execution that we have going on. It's going to flow right into '24, and we will be able to do more with less.

我們不准備說我們是否會持平、上漲、下跌、橫盤。但我要說的是，我認為，基於我們正在進行的營運動力、資本效率、資產生產力和營運執行力，您可以期待我們在 2024 年擁有非常強勁的業績。它將持續到 24 年，我們將能夠用更少的資源做更多的事情。

Your next question comes from the line of Scott Gruber with Citigroup.

您的下一個問題來自花旗集團的 Scott Gruber。

So I want to touch on the strategy with the row development. It does differ a bit from peers, in that you're generally focused on single zone development and not developing multiple benches. Can you just provide some more detail on what differs from a geologic perspective on the eastern side of the acreage? You mentioned on the Eastern side, co-development, is it necessary? Do you just see far less communication on the Eastern side? Was the strategy mainly a call on, really being able to leverage prior surface spending when you do develop these Tier 2 zones down the road to offset the lower productivity? Just some more color on the strategy.

所以我想談談行開發的策略。它確實與同行有所不同，因為您通常專注於單區域開發而不是開發多個工作台。您能否提供更多關於該地區東側從地質角度來看有何不同的細節？你提到東邊共同開發，有必要嗎？您是否發現東部地區的交流少很多？該策略主要是呼籲，當您將來開發這些二級區域時，真的能夠利用先前的地面支出來抵消較低的生產力嗎？只是為策略增添一些色彩。

Yes. Well, I'm going to just say, first and foremost, as much as we talk about the Permian Basin, it's highly variable and a lot of things change, depth, pressure, product type. It's really not one single basin, but you have tremendous variation in stratigraphy and geomechanics and how rocks respond. For much, not all, but for much of our assets, we have come to the informed conclusion that co-development of vertical benches is not necessary. We can develop a particular bench and come back and develop benches above and below. Now that's a function of frac barriers. It's a function of reservoir performance. It's a function of timing.

是的。好吧，我只想說，首先也是最重要的，就像我們談論二疊紀盆地一樣，它變化很大，很多東西都在變化，深度、壓力、產品類型。它實際上不是一個單一的盆地，但地層學、地質力學以及岩石的反應方式存在巨大差異。對於許多（不是全部）但對於我們的大部分資產而言，我們得出了明智的結論：沒有必要共同開發垂直長凳。我們可以開發一個特定的長凳，然後回來開發上面和下面的長凳。現在這是壓裂障礙的函數。它是儲層性能的函數。這是時間的函數。

But the fact that others see it differently, they're playing in different areas of the basin. It's like me telling you that Mexico has the wrong word for beer. I mean, you get different answers depending on where you are. And even within the Windham Row, you're going to see that the interference changes from east to west. So we're very confident in our approach. I'll just leave you with that. That's not to disagree or contradict anybody else's, but we have a lot of data that makes us firm in the statement, that we can develop this single bench in the Wolfcamp without leaving behind resource above or below us. It's also highly efficient to our infrastructure. But that's a benefit, not a driver.

但事實上，其他人有不同的看法，他們在盆地的不同區域打球。這就像我告訴你墨西哥對啤酒的稱呼是錯的。我的意思是，根據你所在的位置，你會得到不同的答案。即使在 Windham Row 內，您也會看到干擾從東到西發生變化。所以我們對我們的方法非常有信心。我就把這個留給你了。這並不是要反對或反駁任何人的觀點，但我們有大量數據使我們堅定地聲明，我們可以在 Wolfcamp 中開發這個單一的長凳，而不會留下我們上方或下方的資源。它對我們的基礎設施也非常有效率。但這是一個好處，而不是一個驅動力。

Yes, I'll just add to that, the row development does lay the groundwork for all future benches that we might develop. The infrastructure is in place. The tank batteries are in place. Our team has already modeled all those zones and how they can come on later, and it will just drive down the dollar per foot on future projects. But as Tom said, that's an outcome. That's not the driver of why we're developing in the way we are.

是的，我只想補充一點，划船的發展確實為我們未來可能開發的所有長凳奠定了基礎。基礎設施已經到位。坦克電池已就位。我們的團隊已經對所有這些區域以及它們以後如何發展進行了建模，這只會降低未來專案的每英尺美元。但正如湯姆所說，這就是結果。這並不是我們以現在的方式發展的驅動力。

Yes. Do you have like a rough estimate in terms of savings on the subsequent developments when all the infrastructure and service spend has already sunk?

是的。當所有基礎設施和服務支出都已經下降時，您是否對後續開發的節省費用有一個粗略的估計？

No, I'd be nervous to quote a percentage on that one because it's not in the immediate drill schedule, but it's significant. It will move the needle.

不，我會很緊張地引用這個百分比，因為它不在目前的演習計劃中，但它很重要。它會移動針。

Your next question comes from the line of David Deckelbaum with TD Cowen.

你的下一個問題來自 David Deckelbaum 和 TD Cowen 的對話。

Just curious, you all have demonstrated some pretty impressive well productivity gains, certainly over your base cases. I'm curious, as we progress into the back half or the end of '23 into '24, '25. How would you contextualize midstream constraints? I know, obviously, you have large-scale developments like Windham Row coming online. But we've heard by and large from many of the peers in the area, that midstream is creating a pretty big overhang around some near-term productivity. Could you contextualize, I guess, what you're seeing and how you feel about the midstream setup going into '24 and '25 relative to your productivity?

只是好奇，你們都展示了一些相當令人印象深刻的油井生產力提升，當然在你們的基本情況下。我很好奇，當我們進入後半段或23年末進入24年、25年。您如何看待中游限制？我知道，顯然，像 Windham Row 這樣的大型開發案即將上線。但我們從該領域的許多同行那裡了解到，中游正在對一些近期生產力造成相當大的懸而未決。我想，您能否將您所看到的情況以及您對 24 和 25 年中游設定相對於您的生產力的感受結合起來？

Yes, David, this is Blake. I'll take that one. In relation to the Windham Row, but also all of our development in Culberson and Reeves County, we own and operate our own midstream systems. Actually, about 70% of our operated gas and our operated water goes through our Coterra midstream assets. So we have tremendous control. These are systems we have developed over years. Triple Crown, for example, in Culberson County, is tied into over 5 different processors that we can shift gas around to, which gives us a ton of reliability.

是的，大衛，這是布萊克。我會接受那個。對於 Windham Row，以及我們在卡爾伯森和里夫斯縣的所有開發項目，我們擁有並經營我們自己的中游系統。事實上，我們大約 70% 的營運天然氣和營運水都經過我們的 Coterra 中游資產。所以我們擁有巨大的控制權。這些是我們多年來開發的系統。例如，位於卡爾伯森縣的 Triple Crown 與超過 5 個不同的處理器相連，我們可以將氣體轉移到其中，這給了我們很大的可靠性。

In addition, we have multiple natural gas residue outlets. And that just gives us a ton of flexibility and confidence in being ready for these big projects. In New Mexico, we are a third party on the majority of our assets. That requires a lot of planning for all the reasons you alluded to earlier. But we have some pretty good service partners, and we have found as long as we stay far ahead of our projects, they'll be ready for us.

此外，我們還有多個天然氣渣油出口。這給了我們很大的靈活性和信心，為這些大型專案做好準備。在新墨西哥州，我們的大部分資產都是第三方。出於您之前提到的所有原因，這需要大量計劃。但我們有一些非常好的服務合作夥伴，我們發現只要我們在專案上保持領先，他們就會為我們做好準備。

Appreciate that. And then maybe just -- so I better understand the comments around the Marcellus spend this next year. It seems like it's being phrased as though it's an option to spend $200 million less, but I guess, is that the correct way to think about it? Or is there really a $100 million plus of efficiency gains in there? Or just program changes just from designing better plans into next year?

感謝。然後也許只是 - 所以我更好地理解圍繞馬塞勒斯明年支出的評論。聽起來好像可以選擇少花 2 億美元，但我想，這是正確的思考方式嗎？或者真的能帶來超過 1 億美元的效率提升嗎？還是只是從設計明年更好的計劃開始改變計劃？

Well, Dave, what I said in my opening remarks is as we throttle into the year, we're currently in a cadence where we would -- if we didn't change, we would hold production flat and be able to realize those savings. But we also have on-ramps and off-ramps. I talked about planning. And one of the things that I'm most pleased about with our current program is, whether we're talking about the Permian, the Anadarko or the Marcellus, each one of those plans has places where we can accelerate or decelerate if conditions change. We thought ahead, we pre-planned, and we can react. And so right now, as we enter into 2024, we're going to be on a flattish-Marcellus cadence. And I would say you would probably see us increase rather than decrease from that if conditions warranted.

好吧，戴夫，我在開場白中所說的是，隨著我們進入這一年，我們目前的節奏是——如果我們不改變，我們將保持產量不變，並能夠實現這些節省。但我們也有入口匝道和出口匝道。我談到了規劃。我對我們目前計劃最滿意的一件事是，無論我們談論的是二疊紀、阿納達科還是馬塞勒斯，每項計劃都有我們可以在條件變化時加速或減速的地方。我們提前思考、預先規劃、我們可以做出反應。因此，現在，當我們進入 2024 年時，我們將處於一種平坦的馬塞勒斯節奏。我想說，如果條件允許的話，你可能會看到我們的成長而不是減少。

Your next question comes from the line of Josh Silverstein with UBS.

您的下一個問題來自瑞銀集團 (UBS) 的喬許‧西爾弗斯坦 (Josh Silverstein)。

Just sticking with the Marcellus. The realizations have been pretty strong this year, and even better than the corporate realizations. I know some of this is from the NYMEX and fixed price contracts that you guys have. You outlined what you have for the rest of the year. Can you just provide us a little bit of insight as to what you guys have next year? And any thoughts on kind of what you can do for [locking in] strong basis relative to what the forward curve may be?

只是堅持與馬塞勒斯在一起。今年的實現相當強勁，甚至比企業的實現還要好。我知道其中一些來自紐約商品交易所和你們擁有的固定價格合約。您概述了今年剩餘時間的計劃。您能否向我們介紹一下你們明年的計畫？您是否有任何想法可以做些什麼來[鎖定]相對於遠期曲線的強大基礎？

Yes, Josh, this is Blake. I'll take that one. We don't really see a change going from '23 to '24 in our portfolio. We're expecting to realize about 85% of NYMEX this year. That is driven by a big portfolio that's anchored to a lot of out-of-basin indexes that give us exposure to strong pricing in the winter, and also a lot of NYMEX pricing built in there. So we don't see a big change from '23 to '24 and how that portfolio is managed.

是的，喬什，這是布萊克。我會接受那個。我們的投資組合從 23 世紀到 24 世紀並沒有真正看到變化。我們預計今年將實現 NYMEX 約 85% 的交易。這是由一個龐大的投資組合推動的，該投資組合以許多盆地外指數為基礎，使我們能夠在冬季獲得強勁的定價，並且其中還包含大量紐約商品交易所的定價。因此，我們沒有看到從 23 世紀到 24 世紀以及該投資組合的管理方式發生重大變化。

And I would say, second and third quarter, that realization is a little lower. If you look year-to-date, that's right about where we're tracking year-to-date.

我想說，第二和第三季的實現率要低一些。如果你看看年初至今，這就是我們年初至今追蹤的情況。

All right. Yes. And then just on managing the cash balance, I think, Tom, you said you wanted to have about $1 billion of cash on hand. Can you just talk about the flexibility in this? I think you still plan on paying down the third quarter maturity next year with cash. But could this cash also be used to support shareholder returns potentially above 100% of free cash flow if crude oil and natural gas prices move lower?

好的。是的。然後就管理現金餘額而言，我想，湯姆，你說過你希望手邊有大約 10 億美元的現金。能談談這方面的彈性嗎？我認為你仍然計劃用現金償還明年第三季的到期債務。但如果原油和天然氣價格走低，這些現金是否也可以用來支持股東回報，回報可能超過自由現金流的 100%？

Yes. I'll jump in there, Josh, for a second here. So look, on the cash balance, again, if you look back over the last, let's call it, 1.5 years or 7 quarters, it's sort of been between call it, maybe a little over $600 million, a little below $1.5 billion. So we sort of gravitated around that $1 billion balance. I think we do want to be able to be countercyclical with regards to shareholder returns. So if we're in a period like the second quarter, where free cash flow is a little bit tighter, we can certainly go beyond with that, in some cases, well beyond that in order to continue to support if we think there's intrinsic value in doing that with the share repurchase program. So we certainly have that ability going forward.

是的。喬什，我先插話一下。所以，再看看現金餘額，如果你回顧過去，我們稱之為 1.5 年或 7 個季度，它介於 6 億美元多一點和 15 億美元以下一點之間。所以我們有點傾向 10 億美元的餘額。我認為我們確實希望能夠在股東回報方面實現反週期。因此，如果我們正處於像第二季度這樣的時期，自由現金流有點緊張，在某些情況下，我們當然可以超越這一點，以便在我們認為存在內在價值的情況下繼續提供支持透過股票回購計劃來做到這一點。所以我們未來一定有這種能力。

The other thing I would just touch on quickly is next falls of maturity, the 2024. And just to highlight, no decisions have been made on that. And so I think you sort of indicated that we'd likely repurchase that or pay that off for cash. And that's certainly one of the options, and we think we have a lot of different options. But I'll just sort of temper that a bit and say no final decision has been made on that maturity.

我想快速談及的另一件事是下一個成熟期，即 2024 年。需要強調的是，尚未就此做出任何決定。所以我認為你有點表示我們可能會回購它或用現金償還。這當然是選擇之一，我們認為我們有很多不同的選擇。但我只是稍微緩和一下，並表示尚未就成熟度做出最終決定。

The next question comes from the line of Derrick Whitfield with Stifel.

下一個問題來自 Derrick Whitfield 和 Stifel 的線路。

Congrats on the strong quarter and update. Perhaps for Tom or Blake, one of the majors on the back of a recent acquisition, talked about the potential to double oil recovery with [NYDEC] as a technical forward-leaning organization that's been in the basin for quite some time, are there any developments that you're aware of that could drive that degree of improvement in recoveries?

祝賀強勁的季度和更新。也許對於湯姆或布萊克來說，最近收購的主要公司之一，談到了與[NYDEC]作為一個在該盆地已經存在相當長一段時間的技術前瞻性組織，使石油採收率翻倍的潛力，有沒有什麼您知道哪些進展可以推動復甦程度的改善？

Yes, I'll start that and Blake may want to comment. We followed that topic carefully. There are a couple of companies kind of talking about that. And I wish I could tell you that we had some back laboratory where we have our own version of it, but we don't. We're watching very carefully. We certainly hope it's true. But we don't see evidence that it's been field tested yet in any meaningful way.

是的，我會開始，布萊克可能想發表評論。我們仔細地關注了這個主題。有幾家公司正在談論這個問題。我希望我能告訴你，我們有一些後台實驗室，在那裡我們有我們自己的版本，但我們沒有。我們正在非常仔細地觀察。我們當然希望這是真的。但我們還沒有看到任何證據表明它已經過任何有意義的現場測試。

So Blake, do you want to comment?

那麼布萊克，你想發表評論嗎？

Yes, I'd just echo what Tom says, we're highly curious. We asked about it all the time. But today, we haven't seen anything show up in the data that would show some technologies being widely used. So we'll continue to pay attention.

是的，我只是重複湯姆所說的，我們很好奇。我們一直在問這個問題。但今天，我們還沒有看到任何數據顯示某些技術正在被廣泛使用。所以我們將持續關注。

Great. And as my follow-up, referencing Slide 17, I want to take it with really a different angle with my question. As you think about the go/no-go decision on co-development of Harkey and the Western spacing units of the Windham Row, what's the downside of co-development from an upstream perspective if low-level returns are largely consistent?

偉大的。作為我的後續行動，參考投影片 17，我想從一個完全不同的角度來看我的問題。當您考慮共同開發 Harkey 和 Windham Row 的西部間隔單元的進行/不進行決定時，如果低水平回報基本上一致，那麼從上游角度來看，共同開發的缺點是什麼？

Yes. I don't know that I see a downside other than midstream activity, and we do have a certain amount of capital that we want to deploy. So if we were to co-develop, it would be increased capital. We've looked at this pretty hard. Certainly, within our assets, there are areas where there's more interference between the Wolfcamp and the Harkey, then there's areas where there's little observable interference. Even where we see interference, those Harkey wells are landmark, what helps. I mean, even if you say, while you're going to drill the Wolfcamp, comeback sometime later and catch the Harkey, the returns on that Harkey layer, even with depletion effects are outstanding.

是的。我不知道除了中游活動之外還有什麼其他的缺點，而且我們確實有一定數量的資本需要部署。所以如果我們共同開發，就會增加資本。我們已經非常認真地研究過這個問題。當然，在我們的資產中，有些區域 Wolfcamp 和 Harkey 之間的干擾較多，有些區域則幾乎沒有可觀察到的干擾。即使在我們看到幹擾的地方，那些哈基井也是具有里程碑意義的，這有什麼幫助。我的意思是，即使你說，當你要鑽探 Wolfcamp，稍後再回來並捕獲 Harkey 時，Harkey 層的回報（即使存在耗盡效應）也是出色的。

Your next question comes from the line of Neal Dingmann with Truist Securities.

您的下一個問題來自 Truist Securities 的 Neal Dingmann。

Tom, my question, got to ask on the capital allocation a little differently. You all previously had well above, what I'd call in probably, call it, a year or 2 ago, what I always would deem is definitely well above-average production growth and what I would probably call then probably average shareholder return. And then obviously, here in the recent quarters, you've kind of reversed that, where you now have well-above shareholder return, what I would call probably the average production growth. I'm just wondering Tom, for you, again, is there a scenario where you would revert more back to that prior scenario?

湯姆，我的問題，對資本配置的詢問有點不同。你們之前都遠高於，我可能會稱之為，一兩年前，我一直認為肯定遠高於平均產量成長，以及我可能稱之為平均股東回報。顯然，在最近幾個季度，你已經扭轉了這個局面，你現在的股東回報率遠高於我所說的平均產量成長。我只是想知道湯姆，對於你來說，是否有一種情況你會更多地恢復到之前的情況？

In the prior scenario being above-average production growth, is that what you're saying?

在之前的情景中，產量成長高於平均水平，這是您的意思嗎？

Yes, sir, and more back to the -- instead of a 90% payout on the shareholder return, maybe back to, I don't even know 50%, 60% or something?

是的，先生，更多地回到——而不是股東回報的 90% 支付，也許回到，我什至不知道 50%、60% 或其他什麼？

No. I think we like our current approach. And under current conditions, I always want to say that, look, if the world changes, the last thing you should want me to say is, no, we're going to just keep doing what we're doing, even though the world has changed all around us. We have built Coterra to be flexible. But under current conditions, we're pretty solid with our current approach.

不，我認為我們喜歡我們目前的做法。在目前的情況下，我總是想說，看，如果世界發生變化，你最不想讓我說的是，不，我們將繼續做我們正在做的事情，即使世界發生了變化我們周圍的一切都發生了變化。我們建造了靈活的 Coterra。但在目前的情況下，我們對目前的方法非常堅定。

Shane, anything you want to say to that?

謝恩，對此你有什麼想說的嗎？

No, I would agree with it. I mean I'd only say, Neal, again, we have a lot of peers today that are probably more focused on just maintaining and keeping things flat. And so I think in that regard, Coterra is differentiated and that we can still generate consistent profitable growth in the current price environment that we sit in.

不，我同意。我的意思是，我只想說，尼爾，我們今天有很多同行可能更專注於維護和保持事物的平坦。因此，我認為在這方面，Coterra 是與眾不同的，我們仍然可以在當前的價格環境下實現持續的獲利成長。

Yes. Great add-on, Shane. I agree with that. And then second question, just on the cost reductions, very noticeable on the prepared remarks, you talked about the simul-fracs have potential for the 5% decrease, and taking the Culberson cost all the way down up to 15%. Can you remind me prior to this or a quarter or 2 ago, into deflation next year, were you all just thinking kind of maybe a 5% deflation? I'm just wondering kind of how you're looking at sort of total -- I don't know if you want to call it deflation time, but sort of all in lower cost next year versus maybe what expectations were a quarter or 2 ago?

是的。很棒的附加組件，謝恩。我同意這一點。然後是第二個問題，關於成本降低，在準備好的評論中非常明顯，您談到了同步壓裂有可能降低 5%，並將 Culberson 成本一路降低至 15%。您能否提醒我，在此之前或一兩個季度前，明年進入通貨緊縮，你們是否都只是在想可能會出現 5% 的通貨緊縮？我只是想知道你如何看待總體 - 我不知道你是否想稱之為通貨緊縮時間，但明年的成本可能會低於預期的一個季度或兩個季度前？

Yes. For the total program, we're still estimating about 5% deflation going into '24. That's based on what we know today. These simul-frac savings would be in addition to that. But that's just for this one project, and we have a big portfolio. So it's gone across the board savings. We're in the middle of negotiating our rig and frac contracts for '24 right now, and look forward to updating that when we put our plan out in February.

是的。對於整個計劃，我們仍估計 24 年通縮率約為 5%。這是基於我們今天所知道的情況。除此之外，這些同時壓裂節省的費用還包括在內。但這只是針對這個項目，我們有一個很大的產品組合。所以它全面節省了。我們目前正在就 24 年的鑽機和壓裂合約進行談判，並期待在 2 月推出計劃時更新該合約。

The next question comes from the line of Matt Portillo with TPH.

下一個問題來自 TPH 的 Matt Portillo。

Tom, maybe a question on the Anadarko Basin to follow up on Doug's question. Sounds like next year, you'll have a relatively healthy level of activity. But I'm just curious, maybe looking into the medium term, it is an asset where you still have about 240 locations that compete for capital. It's also a base that seems to be well situated to meet some of the pull demand from an LNG perspective. Just curious what you need to see either from a cost perspective or well productivity perspective or maybe a macro change, to see a healthy level of rig activity in the basin moving into the second half of the decade?

湯姆，也許是關於阿納達科盆地的問題，以跟進道格的問題。聽起來明年你的活動量將會相對健康。但我只是好奇，也許從中期來看，它是一項資產，仍然有大約 240 個地點在爭奪資本。從液化天然氣的角度來看，它也是一個似乎能夠滿足部分拉動需求的基地。只是好奇您需要從成本角度或油井生產力角度或宏觀變化角度看到什麼，才能看到該盆地的鑽機活動進入本世紀下半葉的健康水平？

Well, look, what I'd love to see is long-term LNG contract that guarantees us an uplift in price that we'd be willing to get after it. So I'm looking at Blake, getting him working on that. We do have an amazing asset in the Anadarko Basin. It's ready to go. I mean we when we look at the Permian, the Marcellus and Anadarko, Coterra is very well positioned for exactly what was designed when we formed it. We can react to liquids prices or natural gas prices with a healthy inventory. And when I say healthy, I mean, a deep and robust inventory, and really, more and more people are seeing that in our asset base. But we would have that option.

好吧，我希望看到的是長期液化天然氣合同，它保證我們願意獲得價格上漲。所以我正在關注布萊克，讓他去做這件事。我們在阿納達科盆地確實擁有驚人的資產。準備好了。我的意思是，當我們觀察二疊紀盆地、馬塞勒斯盆地和阿納達科盆地時，Coterra 完全符合我們組成時的設計目標。我們可以透過健康的庫存來應對液體價格或天然氣價格。當我說健康時，我的意思是，深厚而強勁的庫存，實際上，越來越多的人在我們的資產基礎中看到了這一點。但我們會有這樣的選擇。

I mean that's -- Blake, do you want to comment on that?

我的意思是——布萊克，你想對此發表評論嗎？

Yes, just, the Anadarko is very well positioned for LNG. It's got a straight shot to the coast. There's lots of new facilities coming online there. All of them intrigue us. As Tom said, we'd love to find one that guarantees us some great tailwinds to our cash flow. We haven't found that yet. But we're focused on how do we do an LNG deal that minimizes our total cost, but also gives us some flexibility because we do like to move capital around, and we hate for the tail to end up wagging the dog on that.

是的，只是，阿納達科在液化天然氣方面處於非常有利的位置。它可以直接到達海岸。那裡有很多新設施上線。所有這些都讓我們著迷。正如湯姆所說，我們很樂意找到一個能夠保證我們的現金流得到巨大推動的公司。我們還沒有發現。但我們關注的是如何進行液化天然氣交易，既能最大限度地降低總成本，又能為我們提供一定的靈活性，因為我們確實喜歡轉移資本，而且我們討厭尾隨其後。

Perfect. And maybe just a follow-up on gas specifically. Tom and team, just curious how you all are feeling about the hedge book heading into 2024. It still seems like it might be a bit of a transition year with some challenges on the inventory carryout from '23. And so just wanted to see how you all are thinking about your hedge profile for next year and then maybe longer-term philosophy around hedging for natural gas.

完美的。也許只是針對天然氣的後續行動。湯姆和他的團隊，只是好奇你們對進入 2024 年的對沖賬簿有何感想。今年似乎仍然是一個過渡年，自 23 年以來庫存結轉面臨一些挑戰。因此，我只是想看看大家如何考慮明年的對沖狀況，以及圍繞天然氣對沖的長期概念。

Yes. Shane, why don't you take that?

是的。謝恩，你為什麼不接受這個？

Yes, sure. So look, over the course of the last quarter, we did add some hedges to the book. And again, I think historically, we've been pretty consistent in messaging. We want to be somewhere between 20%, 25% to upwards of 50% hedged, any sort of forward 12 months, 18-month window. And so we try to get back into that posture. I think as you look today, we are positioned that way, plus or minus, around 25% to 30% on the gas side, if you include the physical hedges and the financial hedges in concert. And we think that's a good place to be, but we'll continue to monitor it as we go. You'll also find that if you just look at the shape of that hedge book, it is probably a little bit front half of the year weighted, a little less second half, not to the extreme, but there is a little bit of a slope to that profile.

是的，當然。所以看，在上個季度的過程中，我們確實在書中添加了一些對沖。再說一遍，我認為從歷史上看，我們在訊息傳遞方面一直非常一致。我們希望對沖 20%、25% 到 50% 以上的任何形式的遠期 12 個月、18 個月窗口。所以我們試著回到那個姿勢。我認為，正如你今天所看到的，如果你將實體對沖和金融對沖考慮在內，我們在天然氣方面的定位，無論是正負，大約是 25% 到 30%。我們認為這是一個好地方，但我們將繼續對其進行監控。你也會發現，如果你只看那本對沖帳簿的形狀，它可能是前半年的加權，後半年的加權少一點，不是極端的，但有一點傾斜到該輪廓。

Your next question comes from the line of Roger Read with Wells Fargo.

您的下一個問題來自富國銀行的羅傑‧里德 (Roger Read)。

Come back to some of the productivity questions. There's obviously a portion of it you've talked about that's above ground driven, and there's a portion that's below ground driven. I think the above ground is not too hard to understand from a logistics standpoint, e-fracs, switch over. But the below ground, what have you been able to do there that's led to better performance per lateral foot?

回到一些生產力問題。顯然，您談到的其中一部分是地面驅動的，還有一部分是地下驅動的。我認為從物流的角度來看，上述內容並不太難理解，e-fracs，switch over。但是在地下，您可以採取哪些措施來提高每側腳的性能？

Well, one of the things we've done, Roger, over the last few years, has really spent a tremendous amount of time studying the optimum development scheme for a drilling spacing unit. We have a little different spacing assumption than others. And I think we're -- as we apply that throughout our portfolio, we're seeing ongoing benefits from it. We think that with fewer wells, we can extract the same amount of resource. Our machine learning team has been instrumental to Coterra in that understanding. And they continue to drive a lot of our thinking. It's been a remarkable piece of technology to adopt internally, and it's had direct benefits in our capital efficiency.

好吧，羅傑在過去幾年中所做的事情之一，確實花費了大量時間研究鑽井間距單元的最佳開發方案。我們的間距假設與其他人略有不同。我認為，當我們在整個投資組合中應用這一點時，我們看到了它帶來的持續好處。我們認為，用更少的井，我們可以提取相同數量的資源。我們的機器學習團隊對 Coterra 的這種理解發揮了重要作用。他們繼續推動我們的許多思考。這是一項值得在內部採用的非凡技術，它對我們的資本效率有直接的好處。

As we think about wider space, how does that factor in with the total inventory like the (technical difficulty) that you're not concerned over the next several years?

當我們考慮更廣闊的空間時，這與未來幾年您不關心的（技術難度）等總庫存因素有何關係？

Yes, you were breaking up there, but I believe your question is with wider spacing, how does that impact the duration of our resource. We've modeled that into everything you see in our deck, that's modeled in. And we don't count #6 on the map, quite frankly. Although everybody loves a high number there, we look at -- I mean if we can drill fewer wells and get better financial returns and not leave stranded resource, that is the holy grail. And we think we're never there, but we're moving in that direction in a very positive way, and that's part of what's underwritten our results this quarter.

是的，你在那裡分手了，但我相信你的問題是間距更寬，這對我們資源的持續時間有何影響。我們已經將其建模到您在我們的套牌中看到的所有內容中，這是建模的。坦白說，我們不計算地圖上的#6。儘管每個人都喜歡那裡的高數字，但我們會看到 - 我的意思是，如果我們能夠鑽更少的井並獲得更好的財務回報並且不留下擱淺的資源，那就是聖杯。我們認為我們永遠不會實現這一目標，但我們正在以非常積極的方式朝這個方向前進，這是我們本季業績的一部分。

Your next question comes from the line of Leo Mariani with ROTH.

你的下一個問題來自 Leo Mariani 和 ROTH 的對話。

I just wanted to ask on the seventh Permian rig here. It sounds like that was kind of always part of the plan and perhaps you guys just accelerated. So I just wanted to confirm that was something that was going to be in place kind of all year in 2024. So I mean it sounds like you're probably going to have a little bit more all-in Permian activity next year?

我只是想問這裡的第七個二疊紀鑽井平台。聽起來這一直是計畫的一部分，也許你們只是加速了。所以我只是想確認這將在 2024 年全年進行。所以我的意思是，聽起來明年可能會有更多的全面二疊紀活動？

Well, I'll tell you, if that was pretty big, there are a lot of people down in the hallway that have scars from us finding over that. But I'll let Blake answer the question.

好吧，我告訴你，如果那東西相當大，那麼走廊裡有很多人因為我們發現的東西而留下了傷疤。但我會讓布萊克回答這個問題。

Yes. I'd say the real impetus was the Windham Row, like we've talked about. That's a big project. We want to be well ahead of it to give us lots of timing. The drilling cadence associated with that project only had us picking up the rig early in '24, and we just decided to buy ourselves a little time and take it up early. We're able to contract a great rig with one of our strong service providers, and it was hot and ready to go, so we jumped on it.

是的。我想說真正的動力是溫德姆街，就像我們已經討論過的。這是一個大工程。我們希望能夠走在前面，以便給我們充足的時間。與該專案相關的鑽井節奏讓我們在 24 年初拿起了鑽機，我們只是決定為自己爭取一點時間並儘早拿起它。我們能夠與我們實力雄厚的服務提供者之一簽訂了一套很棒的鑽機合同，而且它已經很熱並且準備就緒，所以我們就立即投入使用。

Okay. So I just wanted to get a sense, I mean, is that going to give you guys a little bit more Permian activity then? Just on average, it sounds like going to be running a little bit more equipment next year.

好的。所以我只是想了解一下，我的意思是，這會為你們帶來更多的二疊紀活動嗎？平均而言，明年似乎會運行更多的設備。

No. It really just accelerates the project. It's not -- it wasn't a big material shift. We had plans to bring that rig next year anyway.

不，它實際上只是加速了專案的進程。這不是——這不是一個重大的實質轉變。無論如何，我們計劃明年引進該設備。

Okay. Understood. And then I guess, Tom, you talked about this a couple of times, but you got the multiyear guide, you're going to update that early next year, and it just sounds like clearly, you've outpaced expectations in 2023. It just seems like if we continue to see strong well results out of Coterra, you've got this guide of oil, of kind of 5% plus if trends continue, it seems like it could be a little bit more than the plus as opposed to the 5% as we roll into next year?

好的。明白了。然後我想，湯姆，你已經談論過這個問題好幾次了，但是你有多年指南，你將在明年初更新該指南，聽起來很明顯，你在 2023 年的表現超出了預期。似乎如果我們繼續看到Coterra 的強勁油井結果，你會得到這份石油指南，大約5% 以上，如果趨勢繼續下去，似乎它可能會比加號多一點，而不是明年的 5% 是多少？

Well, we're currently 5% plus, and we look forward to discussing our plans when we roll them out. We're still having some iterations. But we are seeing great asset productivity, and we expect any surprise to be the upside. Now that said, we also operate in the world where things go wrong. I mean, there's -- we're not immune from train wrecks, operationally. We avoid them as best we can. But I think if you look at our sector, any kind of operational interruptions are always part of our business. So we like to promise what we think we can deliver.

嗯，我們目前的進度是 5% 以上，我們期待在推出這些計劃時討論我們的計劃。我們仍在進行一些迭代。但我們看到了巨大的資產生產力，我們預期任何意外都會帶來好處。話雖如此，我們也在出現問題的世界中開展業務。我的意思是，從操作上來說，我們也不能倖免於火車失事的影響。我們盡力避免它們。但我認為，如果你看看我們的行業，任何類型的營運中斷始終是我們業務的一部分。因此，我們願意承諾我們認為可以實現的目標。

Your next question comes from the line of Charles Meade with Johnson Rice.

你的下一個問題來自查爾斯·米德和約翰遜·賴斯的對話。

This perhaps dovetails with that last question on your outlook for '24. But I want to start specifically with your 4Q oil guide, which was stronger than many of us from the outside looking in, we're expecting. So perhaps this also fits with your earlier comments about volumes, or volume growth is really an output, not a driver, we look at your sequential quarters over the course -- trying to, we can see that, and that the oil rate has ticked up and it's ticked back down, and you're going to have a big pickup for Q4. So my question to bring it to a point is, how would you encourage us to look at this 4Q, your 4Q volumes? Is this one of the -- a big uptick that's likely to mean revert? Or is this more along the lines of a new baseline that you guys are looking at that you're going to build on?

這或許與您對 24 世紀展望的最後一個問題相吻合。但我想特別從你們的 4Q 石油指南開始，它比我們許多人從外部觀察到的要強，我們預期。因此，也許這也符合您之前關於銷量的評論，或者銷量增長實際上是一種產出，而不是驅動因素，我們會觀察您在整個過程中的連續季度- 我們試圖看到這一點，並且油價已經上漲上升然後又下降，第四季將會大幅回升。因此，我的問題是，您會如何鼓勵我們看待第四季度，您的第四季銷售？這是可能意味著回歸的大幅上漲之一嗎？或者這更符合你們正在考慮的新基線，並將在此基礎上進行構建？

Well, we haven't, as you know, specific plans for '24, but we carry a lot of operational momentum into '24. Now that doesn't mean that you take the extra rate and just keep it going up to the ride. When we talk about growth, we're talking about annual numbers. So -- but what we're seeing with a lot of these projects that we discussed, such as Windham Row, is we're seeing less seesaw in that production profile. And we'll be working hard to maintain that and '24, had less seesaw. We'd like to have smooth operational cadence and kind of dampen the volatility in that production profile.

嗯，正如你所知，我們還沒有 24 年的具體計劃，但我們在 24 年有很大的營運動力。但這並不意味著您需要收取額外費用並一直保持到乘車為止。當我們談論成長時，我們談論的是年度數據。所以，但我們在我們討論的許多項目（例如 Windham Row）中看到的是，我們在生產概況中看到了更少的蹺蹺板。我們將努力維持這一點，24 年，搖擺不定的情況就會減少。我們希望保持平穩的營運節奏，並在一定程度上抑制生產狀況的波動。

And I guess maybe just for my follow-up, can you elaborate on what seesaw is?

我想也許只是為了我的後續行動，你能詳細說明什麼是蹺蹺板嗎？

Well, seesaw is up and down significantly quarter-over-quarter. But again, we're not prepared to discuss anything in specific about '24 on this call. I think our 3-year guide of 5 years plus -- excuse me, 5% plus on oil is a reasonable expectation, and that's kind of where we're studying kind of a starting point on the planning process.

嗯，蹺蹺板季度環比大幅上升和下降。但同樣，我們不准備在這次電話會議上討論有關 '24 的任何具體內容。我認為我們 5 年以上的 3 年指南——對不起，石油 5% 以上是一個合理的預期，這就是我們正在研究的規劃過程的起點。

Ladies and gentlemen, there will be no more further questions at this time. I would like to turn the call back over to Tom Jorden, for closing remarks.

女士們、先生們，現在沒有更多問題了。我想將電話轉回給湯姆·喬丹，讓其致閉幕詞。

Well, I want to thank everybody for joining us this morning. Again, we're very pleased at Coterra, to be delivering excellent results for the third quarter, but I'll finish where I started. We expect this out of ourselves, and we think you should expect this from us. So look forward to delivering consistent performance over time. Thank you very much.

嗯，我要感謝大家今天早上加入我們。再次，我們對 Coterra 在第三季度取得出色的業績感到非常高興，但我會從開始的地方完成。我們對自己有這樣的期望，我們認為您也應該對我們有這樣的期望。因此，期待隨著時間的推移提供一致的性能。非常感謝。

Ladies and gentlemen, that concludes today's call. You may now disconnect. Have a great day.

女士們、先生們，今天的電話會議到此結束。您現在可以斷開連線。祝你有美好的一天。