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Operator
Operator
Good day and thank you for standing by. Welcome to the Constellium third quarter 2025 results conference call and webcast. (Operator Instructions) Please note that today's conference is being recorded. I would not like to have the conference of a speaker. Jason Hershiser, Director of Investor Relations of Constellium. Please go ahead.
您好,感謝您的耐心等待。歡迎參加 Constellium 2025 年第三季業績電話會議和網路直播。(操作員說明)請注意,今天的會議正在錄音。我不想舉辦演講者會議。康斯坦利姆公司投資者關係總監傑森·赫爾希澤。請繼續。
Jason Hershiser - Director of Investor Relations
Jason Hershiser - Director of Investor Relations
Thank you, [Razia]. I would like to welcome everyone to our third quarter 2025 earnings call. On the call today, we have our Chief Executive Officer, Jean-Marc Germain; our Chief Operating Officer and CEO appointee; Ingrid Joerg, and our Chief Financial Officer, Jack Guo. After the presentation, we'll have a Q&A session.
謝謝你,[拉齊亞]歡迎各位參加我們2025年第三季財報電話會議。今天參加電話會議的有:執行長 Jean-Marc Germain;營運長兼執行長任命人 Ingrid Joerg;以及財務長 Jack Guo。演講結束後,我們將進行問答環節。
A copy of the slide presentation for today's call is available on our website at constellium.com, and today's call is being recorded. Before we begin, I'd like to encourage everyone to visit the company's website and take a look at our recent filings.
今天電話會議的幻燈片簡報可在我們的網站 constellium.com 上找到,今天的電話會議正在錄音。在正式開始之前,我鼓勵大家造訪公司網站,查看我們最近提交的文件。
Today's call may include forward-looking statements within the meaning of the Private Securities Litigation Reform Act of 1,995. Such statements include statements regarding the company's anticipated financial and operating performance, future events, and expectations, and may involve known and unknown risks and uncertainties.
今天的電話會議可能包含 1995 年《私人證券訴訟改革法案》所界定的前瞻性陳述。此類聲明包括有關公司預期財務和營運績效、未來事件和預期的聲明,並可能涉及已知和未知的風險和不確定性。
For a summary of specific risk factors that could cause results to differ materially from those expressed in the forward-looking statements. Please refer to the factors presented under the heading risk factors in our annual report on Form10-K.
有關可能導致實際結果與前瞻性陳述中表達的結果存在重大差異的具體風險因素的概述。請參閱我們在 10-K 表格年度報告中「風險因素」標題下列出的各項因素。
All information on this presentation is as of the date of the presentation. We undertake no obligation to update or revise any forward-looking statement as a result of new information, future events, or otherwise, except as required by law. In addition, today's presentation includes information regarding certain non-GAAP financial measures. Please see the reconciliations of non-GAAP financial measures attached in today's slide presentation which supplement our GAAP disclosures.
本次簡報中的所有資訊均截至簡報發布之日。除法律另有規定外,我們不承擔因新資訊、未來事件或其他原因而更新或修改任何前瞻性聲明的義務。此外,今天的簡報還包含有關某些非GAAP財務指標的資訊。請參閱今天投影片簡報中附上的非GAAP財務指標調節表,這些調節表是我們GAAP揭露的補充。
And with that, I would now like to hand the call over to Jean-Marc.
接下來,我將把電話交給讓-馬克。
Jean-Marc Germain - Chief Executive Officer, Executive Director
Jean-Marc Germain - Chief Executive Officer, Executive Director
Thank you, Jason. Good morning. Good afternoon, everyone, and thank you for your interest in Constellium. I want to begin by addressing our executive leadership change that was announced this morning. On December 30, I will be retiring from my role as Chief Executive Officer of Constellium, and I will also be stepping down from my position as a director on the board at the same time. I plan to continue to serve as a special advisor to board and management in 2026.
謝謝你,傑森。早安.各位下午好,感謝大家對 Constellium 的關注。我想先談談今天早上宣布的高層領導變動。12月30日,我將卸任康斯坦利姆公司執行長一職,同時我也將辭去董事會董事職務。我計劃在 2026 年繼續擔任董事會和管理層的特別顧問。
Ingrid Joerg will assume the role of Chief Executive Officer of Contelium, and the Board will appoint Ingrid as a Director for the remaining term of my directorship. This leadership change comes following a multi-year planning process. And I will continue to support the Board and the management for a seamless transition in 2026, as I just said.
Ingrid Joerg 將擔任 Contelium 的首席執行官,董事會將任命 Ingrid 為董事,任期為我剩餘的董事任期。此次領導層變動是經過多年規劃後才實現的。正如我剛才所說,我將繼續支持董事會和管理層,以確保2026年順利過渡。
Since I joined the company almost 10 years ago, Ingrid and I have worked very closely together, including the last 2-plus years during which Ingrid was in charge of the company's operations in her capacity as the Chief Operating Officer. With more than 25 years of experience in the aluminum industry, including the last 10 Wiscons Stadium, Ingrid [processes] deep industry knowledge, proven operational expertise, a wide network across our industry, and strong commitment to our stakeholders, including our customers, employees, and our shareholders.
自從我近 10 年前加入公司以來,我和 Ingrid 一直密切合作,包括最近兩年多的時間裡,Ingrid 擔任營運官,負責公司的營運。憑藉在鋁業領域超過 25 年的經驗,包括過去 10 年的威斯康辛體育場項目,Ingrid 擁有深厚的行業知識、久經考驗的營運專長、廣泛的行業人脈,以及對包括客戶、員工和股東在內的利益相關者的堅定承諾。
Ingrid has also contributed significantly to the development of the company's strategy and its long-term objectives. As you can see, our results and our outlook are strong today, and I am confident that Ingrid will continue to build on this strong foundation and lead Constellium to what will be a bright future for our shareholders.
英格麗德也為公司策略及其長期目標的發展做出了重大貢獻。正如你所看到的,我們目前的業績和前景都很強勁,我相信英格麗德將繼續鞏固這一堅實的基礎,帶領康斯坦利姆走向一個對股東而言光明美好的未來。
Okay, now turning to slide 5 now, let's discuss the highlights from our third quarter results. I would like to start with safety, our number one priority. Our recordable case rate in the third quarter was 1.7 per million hours worked, and our year-to-date recordable case rate remains at 1.8 per million hours worked. While this performance remains best in class, we all need to constantly maintain our focus on safety to further improve.
好的,現在就來看第 5 張投影片,讓我們來討論一下第三季業績的亮點。我想先談談安全,這是我們的首要任務。第三季我們的可記錄病例率為每百萬工時 1.7 例,而今年迄今的可記錄病例率仍為每百萬工時 1.8 例。雖然這項性能仍然是同類最佳,但我們都需要不斷關注安全問題,以進一步提高。
Turning to our financial results, shipments were 373,000 tons, or up 6% compared to the third quarter of 2024, due to higher shipments in each of our operating segments. Revenue of $2.2 billion increased 20% compared to the third quarter of 2024, due to higher shipments and higher revenue per ton, including higher metal prices.
再來看我們的財務業績,出貨量為 373,000 噸,比 2024 年第三季成長 6%,這得益於我們各個營運部門出貨量的增加。由於出貨量增加和每噸收入增加(包括金屬價格上漲),營收達到 22 億美元,比 2024 年第三季成長了 20%。
Remember, while our revenues are affected by changes in metal prices, we operate a pass-through business model which minimizes our exposure to metal price risk. Our net income of $88 million in the quarter compares to net income of $8 million in the third quarter of last year. The main driver of the increase was higher gross profit in the quarter versus last year.
請記住,雖然我們的收入會受到金屬價格變化的影響,但我們採用的是成本轉嫁的商業模式,這最大限度地降低了我們面臨的金屬價格風險。本季淨收入為 8,800 萬美元,而去年第三季淨收入為 800 萬美元。推動成長的主要原因是本季毛利較去年同期提高。
Compared to the third quarter last year, adjusted EBITDA increased 85% to $235 million in the third quarter this year, though this includes a positive non-cash impact from metal price lag of $39 million. If we exclude the impact of metal price lag, which, as is the way we view the real economic performance of the business, we achieve an adjusted bid of $196 million in the quarter.
與去年第三季相比,今年第三季調整後的 EBITDA 成長了 85%,達到 2.35 億美元,但這其中包含了金屬價格滯後帶來的 3,900 萬美元的非現金正面影響。如果我們排除金屬價格滯後的影響(這也是我們看待企業實際經濟表現的方式),那麼我們本季的調整後報價為 1.96 億美元。
This is a new third quarter record for us, and it is up 50% versus the $131 million in the third quarter last year. Moving now to free cash flow. Our free cash flow in the quarter was strong at $30 million. During the quarter we returned $25 million to shareholders, through the repurchase of 1.7 million shares. Our leverage at the end of the third quarter was 3.1 times or down about half a term from the peak last quarter.
這是我們的第三季新紀錄,比去年第三季的 1.31 億美元成長了 50%。接下來討論自由現金流。本季我們的自由現金流表現強勁,達到 3,000 萬美元。本季我們透過回購 170 萬股股票,向股東返還了 2,500 萬美元。第三季末,我們的槓桿率為 3.1 倍,比上季的峰值下降了約半個週期。
We delivered strong results this quarter that were above our own expectations despite the uncertain economic environment and continued demand weakness across many of our markets. We remain focused on strong cost control, free cash flow generation, and commercial and capital discipline. Overall, I am very pleased with our third quarter and year-to-date execution and performance.
儘管經濟環境不明朗,且我們許多市場的需求持續疲軟,但我們本季仍取得了超乎預期的強勁業績。我們將繼續專注於嚴格的成本控制、自由現金流的產生以及商業和資本紀律。總體而言,我對我們第三季和今年迄今的執行情況和業績感到非常滿意。
It is not on slide here, but I wanted to quickly note that during the third quarter, we completed a small divestment of our Nanjing automotive structures plant to a local Chinese investment holding company. The terms of the transaction will remain confidential.
雖然這裡沒有幻燈片,但我還是想快速提一下,在第三季度,我們完成了對南京汽車結構廠的小規模剝離,出售給了中國當地的投資控股公司。交易條款將保密。
Please turn now to slide 6. Before turning the call over to Jack, I wanted to give you a quick update on the current tariff environment and how we see the potential impact to constellium. As a reminder, we are mostly local for local in the regions where we operate.
請翻到第6張投影片。在將電話交給傑克之前,我想快速向您介紹當前的資費環境以及我們認為這對星座計劃可能產生的影響。再次提醒,我們在營運的地區主要提供在地化服務。
Today our gross tariff exposure is mostly concentrated at our metal supply from Canada to our operations here in the US. We have made significant progress on pass throughs and other actions to mitigate a large portion of our gross tariff exposure. At this stage, our direct tariff exposure remains manageable and is consistent with our prior expectations.
目前,我們的關稅總風險主要集中在從加拿大向我們在美國的業務供應金屬。我們在轉嫁和其他措施方面取得了重大進展,以減輕我們大部分的關稅總額風險。現階段,我們的直接關稅風險敞口仍然可控,與我們先前的預期一致。
Now the indirect positive impacts from tariffs are continuing to ramp up, including improved scrap spreads in the US, higher demand for domestically produced aluminum products, and a more favorable pricing environment compared to expensive imports.
現在,關稅帶來的間接正面影響正在不斷增強,包括美國廢鋁價差擴大、國內生產的鋁產品需求增加,以及與昂貴的進口產品相比更有利的定價環境。
Put it all together, we continue to believe that the current trade policies should be a net positive for us. Lastly on tariffs, I want to reiterate that all known tariff impacts, both direct and indirect, and all of our mitigation efforts to upset the direct impacts are included in our guidance.
綜上所述,我們仍然認為目前的貿易政策對我們而言應該是利大於弊的。最後,關於關稅,我想重申,所有已知的關稅影響,包括直接影響和間接影響,以及我們為減輕直接影響而採取的所有緩解措施,都已包含在我們的指導意見中。
With that, I will now hand the call over to Jack to further detail our financial performance, Jack?
那麼,我現在將把電話交給傑克,讓他進一步詳細介紹我們的財務業績,傑克?
Jack Guo - Chief Financial Officer
Jack Guo - Chief Financial Officer
Thank you, Jean-Marc. Congratulations, Ingrid, and thank you everyone for joining the call today. Before I get into the quarterly results, I wanted to point out that we had a revision of certain disclosures in previously issued financial statements.
謝謝你,讓-馬克。恭喜英格麗德,也感謝大家今天參加電話會議。在介紹季度業績之前,我想指出,我們對先前發布的財務報表中的某些揭露內容進行了修訂。
During the third quarter of this year, we identified and corrected certain [e-material] errors affecting metal price lag and the resulting segment adjust the EBITDA for the A&T segment for certain prior periods in 2025 and 2024. This revision resulted in slightly higher segment adjust EBITDA, as compared to prior disclosures in those periods.
今年第三季度,我們發現並糾正了影響金屬價格滯後的某些[電子材料]錯誤,因此對 2025 年和 2024 年某些前期期間的 A&T 部門的 EBITDA 進行了調整。與先前揭露的數據相比,此次修訂導致分部調整後的 EBITDA 略有增加。
We included more details on this revisioning both our earnings release and presentation today. Turning now to slide 8, and let's focus on our A&T segment performance. But just the EBITDA of $90 million increased 67% compared to the third quarter last year. Volume was a tailwind of $6 million due to higher TID shipments, partially offset by lower aerospace shipments.
我們在今天的獲利報告和簡報中都包含了關於此次修訂的更多細節。現在就來看看第 8 張投影片,讓我們專注於 A&T 部門的表現。但光是 EBITDA 就達到 9,000 萬美元,比去年第三季成長了 67%。由於 TID 出貨量增加,銷量增加了 600 萬美元,但航空航天出貨量下降部分抵消了這一增長。
TID shipments were up 16% versus last year. First, as commercial transportation and general industrial markets became more stable in the quarter, and we started to see some increased demand from onshoring in the US. And secondly, we also benefited from higher shipments in Valais following recovery from the flood last year.
TID 出貨量比去年增加了 16%。首先,隨著本季商業運輸和一般工業市場趨於穩定,我們開始看到美國本土化生產需求增加。其次,由於去年瓦萊州遭受洪水災害,當地貨物運輸量增加,我們也從中受益。
Aerospace shipments were down 9% in the quarter versus last year as commercial OEMs continued to work to access inventory as a result of lingering supply chain challenges. Demand in space and military aircraft remained healthy. Price and mix was a tailwind of $11 million, due to improved contractual and spot pricing in aerospace and TID as well as improved aerospace mixing the quarter.
由於供應鏈持續面臨挑戰,商業 OEM 廠商仍在努力取得庫存,導致本季航空航太產品出貨量比去年同期下降了 9%。航太和軍用飛機市場需求依然強勁。由於本季航空航太和TID的合約價格和現貨價格有所改善,以及航空航太產品組合有所改善,價格和產品組合帶來了1,100萬美元的利多。
Costs were a tailwind of $16 million primarily as a result of lower operating costs. FX and other was also a tailwind of $3 million in the quarter due to the weaker US dollar. As a reminder, the third quarter last year included an $8 million, unfavorable impact from the Valais flood.
成本方面有 1600 萬美元的利多因素,主要原因是營運成本降低。由於美元走軟,外匯及其他因素也為本季帶來了 300 萬美元的利多。提醒一下,去年第三季受到瓦萊州洪水 800 萬美元的不利影響。
Now turn to slide 9 and let's focus on our part segment performance. Adjusted EBITDA of $82 million increased 14% compared to the third quarter last year. Volume was a tailwind of $11 million as higher shipments and packaging were partially offset by lower shipments in automotive and specialty products.
現在翻到第 9 張投影片,讓我們專注於零件段的效能。經調整後的 EBITDA 為 8,200 萬美元,比去年第三季成長 14%。銷售成長帶來了 1,100 萬美元的利好,因為更高的出貨量和包裝成本被汽車和特種產品的出貨量下降部分抵消。
Packaging shipments increased 11% in the quarter versus last year, as demand remained healthy in both North America and Europe. In North America, we also benefited at Muscle Shoals from continued improvement of operational performance in the quarter. Automotive shipments decreased 13% in the quarter with weakness in both North America and Europe.
與去年同期相比,本季包裝出貨量成長了 11%,因為北美和歐洲的需求依然強勁。在北美,馬斯爾肖爾斯港也受惠於本季營運績效的持續改善。本季汽車出貨量下降了 13%,北美和歐洲市場均表現疲軟。
Price and mix was a tailwind of $3 million mainly as a result of improved pricing partially offset by unfavorable mixing the reporter. Costs were a headwind of $7 million as a result of higher operating costs, including the impact from tariffs. FX and Other was a tailwind of $3 million in the quarter.
價格和產品組合帶來了 300 萬美元的利好,這主要是由於價格的改善,但部分被不利的產品組合所抵消。由於營運成本上升(包括關稅的影響),成本增加了 700 萬美元,成為一大不利因素。本季外匯及其他因素帶來了 300 萬美元的順風。
Now turn to slide 10, and let's focus on the AS&I segment. Adjusted EBITDA of $33 million increased 371% compared to the third quarter of last year. Volume was a $9 million tailwind as a result of higher ship fencing industry shoot the products, partially offset by lower ship fencing automotive.
現在翻到第 10 張投影片,讓我們專注於 AS&I 部分。經調整後的 EBITDA 為 3,300 萬美元,比去年第三季成長了 371%。由於船舶圍欄行業產品銷量增加,銷量增加了 900 萬美元,但部分被船舶圍欄汽車銷售下降所抵消。
Industry shipments were up 40% in the quarter versus last year as we had higher shipments in Valis following recovery from the flood last year, while the industrial markets in Europe remained generally weak in the quarter. Automotive shipments were down 7% in the quarter with weakness in both North America and Europe.
由於瓦利斯港在去年洪水過後恢復正常,本季工業出貨量比去年同期成長了 40%,而歐洲工業市場在本季整體疲軟。本季汽車出貨量下降7%,北美和歐洲市場均表現疲軟。
Price and mix was a $18 million tailwind in the quarter, mainly due to net customer compensation for the underperformance of an automotive program as previously discussed and better mix in the quarter. Costs were a headwind of $3 million primarily due to the impact of tariffs. FX and other was the tailwind of $2 million in the quarter.
本季度價格和產品組合帶來了 1800 萬美元的利好,主要原因是之前討論過的汽車項目業績不佳而獲得的淨客戶補償,以及本季度產品組合的改善。成本方面有 300 萬美元的不利因素,主要原因是關稅的影響。外匯及其他因素為本季帶來了 200 萬美元的順風。
As a reminder, the third quarter last year included a $10 million unfavorable impact from the Valis flood. It is not on the slide here, but our holdings and corporate expense was $9 million in the quarter. Holdings and corporate expense this quarter was up $7 million from last year, mainly due to higher accrued labor costs, given our stronger performance this year, partially offset by lower headcounts.
需要提醒的是,去年第三季受到瓦利斯洪水的1,000萬美元不利影響。雖然這裡沒有列出,但本季我們的持股和公司支出為 900 萬美元。本季控股和公司支出比去年同期增加了 700 萬美元,主要是由於今年業績強勁,導致應計勞動力成本增加,但部分被員工人數減少所抵消。
We now expect holdings and corporate expense to run at approximately $45 million in 2025, which is a slight increase compared to [P&ARP] previously. It is also not on the slide here, but I wanted to summarize the current cost environment we're facing.
我們現在預計 2025 年控股和公司支出約為 4500 萬美元,與先前的 [P&ARP] 相比略有增加。雖然投影片上沒有提到,但我還是想總結一下我們目前面臨的成本環境。
As we operate a pass-through business model, so we're not materially exposed to changes in the market price of aluminum, our largest cost input. Our other metal costs, we experienced a dramatic tightening of spot scrap spreads in North America in 2024.
由於我們採用的是成本轉嫁的商業模式,因此我們不會受到鋁(我們最大的成本投入)市場價格變動的實質影響。其他金屬成本方面,我們在 2024 年經歷了北美現貨廢料價差的急劇收窄。
The tightness continued into the beginning of this year. Those spreads have improved in the stock market as we move through the year. Given that a portion of our scrap purchases were negotiated previously, we did not benefit much from this dynamic during the period. However, we expect to benefit more in the fourth quarter this year.
這種緊張局面一直持續到今年初。隨著時間推移,股市中的這些價差有所改善。鑑於我們之前已經協商了一部分廢料採購,因此在此期間,我們並沒有從這種動態中獲益太多。不過,我們預計今年第四季會獲得更多收益。
For energy, our 2025 costs are moderately more favorable compared to 2024, although energy prices remain above historical averages. Other inflationary pressures have eased to more normal levels. And as we said in previous quarters, given the weakness we're seeing in several of our markets, we have accelerated our vision '25 cost improvement program.
就能源而言,儘管能源價格仍高於歷史平均水平,但我們 2025 年的成本比 2024 年的成本略有優勢。其他通膨壓力已緩解至較正常的水平。正如我們在前幾個季度所說,鑑於我們在幾個市場看到的疲軟態勢,我們加快了「25願景」成本改善計畫。
We have demonstrated strong cost performance in the past and we're confident in our ability to maintain a right size cost structure for the current environment. Now let's turn to slide 11 and discuss our free cash flow. We generated $30 million of free cash flow in the third quarter, bringing our year-to-date total to $68 billion.
我們過去已經展現了強大的成本效益,我們有信心在當前環境中保持合適的成本結構。現在讓我們翻到第 11 張投影片,討論一下我們的自由現金流。第三季我們產生了 3,000 萬美元的自由現金流,使我們今年迄今的自由現金流總額達到 680 億美元。
The year over year increase in the first nine months this year is a result of higher segment of adjusted EBITDA, lower capital expenditures, and lower cash taxes, partially offset by more cash used for working capital and higher cash interest.
今年前九個月的同比增長是由於調整後 EBITDA 的增加、資本支出減少和現金稅款減少,但部分被用於營運資本的現金增加和現金利息增加所抵消。
Looking at 2025, we still expect to generate free cash flow in excess of $120 million for the full year, which is unchanged from our prior guidance and from our guidance to start this year, despite significantly higher working capital needs in the current environment.
展望 2025 年,我們仍然預計全年自由現金流將超過 1.2 億美元,這與我們先前的預期以及今年年初的預期一致,儘管當前環境下營運資金需求顯著增加。
Working capital and other is now a larger use of cash compared to previous guidance, driven by higher activities, as well as a significantly higher metal price environment in the US compared to the start of the year.
與先前的預期相比,營運資金和其他資金的使用量更大,這主要是由於業務活動增加,以及美國金屬價格環境較年初大幅上漲所致。
It also includes the working capital rebuilding Valis following the flood, so this was already embedding our guidance to start the year. We continue to expect CapEx cash insurance and cash taxes to be around the same levels as per the previous guidance. As Jean-Marc mentioned previously, we continued our share buyback activities in the quarter.
其中還包括洪水過後重建瓦利斯所需的營運資金,因此這已經是我們年初指導方針的一部分。我們仍然預期資本支出現金保險和現金稅將與先前的預期水準大致相同。正如Jean-Marc之前提到的那樣,我們在本季繼續進行股票回購活動。
During the quarter, we repurchased 1.7 million shares for $25 million bringing our year-to-date total to 6.5 million shares for $75 million. We have approximately $146 million remaining on our existing share repurchase program, and we still intend to use a large portion of the free cash flow generated this year for the program.
本季度,我們以 2,500 萬美元的價格回購了 170 萬股股票,使我們今年迄今的回購總額達到 650 萬股,總金額為 7,500 萬美元。我們現有的股票回購計畫還剩下約 1.46 億美元,我們仍然打算將今年產生的大部分自由現金流用於該計畫。
Now let's turn to slide 12 and discuss our balance sheet and liquidity position. At the end of the third quarter, our net debt of $1.9 billion was up approximately $115 million compared to the end of 2024, with the largest driver being the translation impact from the weaker US dollar at the end of the quarter.
現在讓我們翻到第 12 張投影片,討論一下我們的資產負債表和流動性狀況。第三季末,我們的淨債務為 19 億美元,比 2024 年底增加了約 1.15 億美元,其中最大的原因是季末美元走軟帶來的匯兌影響。
As indicated previously, we expected leverage from last quarter to represented. And that leverage will trend down in the second half of this year. We have made good progress on that front and our leverage decreased by almost half a turn to 3.1 times at the end of the third quarter, and we're on track to be below 3 times by the end of the year.
如前所述,我們預期上季的槓桿效應將會顯現。而這種槓桿作用將在今年下半年呈現下降趨勢。我們在這方面取得了良好進展,第三季末槓桿率下降了近半倍,至 3.1 倍,我們預計在年底前降至 3 倍以下。
We remain committed to bringing our leverage back down into our target leverage range of 15 times to 2.5 times and maintaining this range over time. As you can see our debt summary, we have no bond maturities until 2028. Our liquidity increased by over $100 million from the end of 2024. It remains very strong at $831 million as of the end of the third quarter.
我們仍致力於將槓桿率降至 15 倍至 2.5 倍的目標範圍內,並長期維持此範圍。從我們的債務概要可以看出,我們在 2028 年之前沒有債券到期。從 2024 年底開始,我們的流動資金增加了 1 億美元以上。截至第三季末,該股仍保持強勁勢頭,達 8.31 億美元。
With that, I'll now hand the call over to Ingrid.
接下來,我將把電話交給英格麗德。
Ingrid Joerg - Executive Vice President & Chief Financial Officer
Ingrid Joerg - Executive Vice President & Chief Financial Officer
Thank you very much, Jack, and thank you, Jean-Marc for your kind words. I'm honored by the trust placed in me by the board, and I'm very excited to lead Constellium into its next chapter. Over the past years we've developed and executed on a value creation strategy at Constellium, through the focus on high value-added products, enhancing customer connectivity, optimizing margins and utilizations, focusing on cost and continuous improvements, and showing strong commitment to our stakeholders.
非常感謝傑克,也感謝讓-馬克的讚揚。董事會對我的信任讓我深感榮幸,我非常興奮能帶領 Constellium 邁向新的篇章。過去幾年,我們透過專注於高附加價值產品、增強客戶連接、優化利潤率和利用率、注重成本和持續改進以及展現對利害關係人的堅定承諾,在 Constellium 制定並實施了價值創造策略。
Which I'm committed to carrying forward. Together with the support of our talented teams, we will continue to strengthen our partnerships with our customers, deliver innovative, sustainable solutions, and create value for our shareholders. With that, let's turn to slide 14 and discuss our current and market outlook.
我承諾會繼續推動這項工作。在優秀團隊的支持下,我們將持續加強與客戶的合作關係,提供創新、永續的解決方案,並為股東創造價值。接下來,讓我們翻到第 14 張投影片,討論一下我們目前的狀況和市場前景。
The majority of our portfolio today is serving [A&T] markets benefiting from durable, sustainability-driven secular growth in which aluminum, a light and infinitely recyclable material, plays a critical role. Turning first to the aerospace market, commercial aircraft backlogs are at record levels today and continue to grow.
我們目前大部分的產品組合服務於[A&T]市場,這些市場受益於持久的、可持續發展的長期成長,而鋁這種輕巧且可無限回收的材料在其中發揮關鍵作用。首先來看航空航太市場,目前商用飛機的積壓訂單已達到歷史最高水平,並且持續成長。
Major aerospace OEMs remain focused on increasing build rates for both narrow and wide body aircraft, as evidenced by higher plane deliveries this year compared to last year. Also, supply chain challenges have continued to slow deliveries below what OEMs were expecting for several years in a row now, we are beginning to see signs that these challenges are easing.
主要航空航太原始設備製造商仍然專注於提高窄體飛機和寬體飛機的生產速度,今年的飛機交付量比去年有所增加,這證明了這一點。此外,供應鏈挑戰導致交付速度連續數年低於原始設備製造商的預期,但我們開始看到這些挑戰正在緩解的跡象。
Demand has stabilized for the most part, and we remain confident that the long-term fundamentals driving aerospace demand remain intact, including growing passenger traffic and greater demand for new, more fuel-efficient aircraft. Demand remains stable in the business and regional jet market, and demand for space and military aircraft is strengthening.
需求已基本穩定,我們仍然相信推動航空航天需求的長期基本面依然完好,包括客運量的增長和對新型、更節能飛機的更大需求。公務機和支線飛機市場需求保持穩定,而太空梭和軍用飛機的需求正在增強。
Looking across our entire aerospace business, we believe our product portfolio is unmatched in the industry, and we have industry leading R&D capabilities for aluminum aerospace solutions. Turning now to packaging, demand remains healthy in both North America and Europe. As Jack mentioned earlier, we continue to benefit from improved performance at Muscle Shoals, which has set numerous operational records this year.
縱觀我們整個航空航天業務,我們相信我們的產品組合在業內是無與倫比的,並且我們在鋁製航空航天解決方案方面擁有行業領先的研發能力。現在來看包裝方面,北美和歐洲的需求依然強勁。正如傑克之前提到的,我們繼續受益於馬斯爾肖爾斯油田的良好表現,該油田今年創下了多項營運記錄。
The long-term outlook for packaging continues to be favorable, as evidenced by the growing consumer preference for the sustainable aluminum beverage can, capacity growth plans from the can makers in both regions and the greenfield investments ongoing here in the US. Longer-term, we continue to expect packaging markets to grow low to mid-single-digits in both North America and Europe.
從消費者對可持續鋁製飲料罐日益增長的偏好、兩地製罐商的產能增長計劃以及美國正在進行的綠地投資來看,包裝行業的長期前景依然樂觀。從長遠來看,我們仍然預期北美和歐洲的包裝市場將以個位數低至中等水平的速度成長。
Let's now turn to automotive, which is a bit of a different story in Europe versus North America. Automotive production of light vehicles in Europe remains well below pre-COVID levels. Demand in Europe remains weak, particularly in the luxury and premium vehicle and electric vehicle segments where we have greater exposure.
現在我們來談談汽車產業,歐洲的汽車產業與北美的情況略有不同。歐洲輕型車產量仍遠低於新冠疫情前的水平。歐洲市場需求依然疲軟,尤其是在我們業務佔比較大的豪華車、高端車和電動車領域。
Automotive production in Europe is also expected to feel the impact of the current Section 232 Auto Tariffs, given the number of vehicles the US imports from Europe. In North America, automotive production is also below pre-COVID levels, so demand has remained relatively stable.
鑑於美國從歐洲進口的汽車數量,預計歐洲的汽車生產也將受到目前第 232 條汽車關稅的影響。在北美,汽車產量也低於新冠疫情前的水平,因此需求保持相對穩定。
During the quarter, one of our competitors had a very unfortunate fire at one of their facilities in the US, which has created an interruption in the aluminum roll product supply chain in North America. The entire industry is mobilizing to ensure we limit the impacts on our customers. We currently expect a modest benefit from this, so [more so] in 2026 than this year.
本季度,我們的一家競爭對手在美國的一家工廠不幸發生火災,導致北美鋁捲產品供應鏈中斷。整個行業正在積極行動,以確保將對客戶的影響降到最低。我們目前預計這將帶來適度的收益,因此在 2026 年會比今年更顯著。
In the longer-term, we believe electric and hybrid vehicles will continue to grow, but at a lower rate than previously expected. Secular trends such as light weighting and increased fuel efficiency will continue to drive the demand for aluminum products. As a result, we remain positive on this market over the longer-term in both regions, despite the weakness we are seeing today.
從長遠來看,我們認為電動車和混合動力車將繼續成長,但成長速度會低於先前的預期。輕量化和提高燃油效率等長期趨勢將繼續推動對鋁製品的需求。因此,儘管目前市場疲軟,但我們對這兩個地區的長期市場前景仍保持樂觀。
As you can see on the page, these three core markets represent over 80% of our last 12 months' revenue. Turning lastly to other specialties, industrial market conditions in North America and Europe became more stable in the second half of this year, and overall demand appears to have stabilized at low levels. We have experienced weakness across most specialties markets for three years now.
如您在頁面上所見,這三個核心市場占我們過去 12 個月收入的 80% 以上。最後來看其他專業領域,今年下半年北美和歐洲的工業市場狀況趨於穩定,整體需求似乎已穩定在較低水準。過去三年,我們大多數專業市場都出現了疲軟現象。
As a reminder, these specialty markets are typically dependent upon the health of the industrial economies in each region, including drivers like the interest rate environment, industrial production levels, and consumer spending patterns. We continue to work hard to adjust our cost structure to the current demand environment, which will put the businesses in an even better position when the industrial economies begin to recover.
需要提醒的是,這些專業市場通常取決於各地區工業經濟的健康狀況,包括利率環境、工業生產水準和消費者支出模式等因素。我們將繼續努力調整成本結構以適應當前的需求環境,這將使企業在工業經濟開始復甦時處於更有利的地位。
We do believe TID markets in North America can provide us with some opportunities today, given the current tariffs make imports less competitive compared to domestic production, and we are already seeing positive momentum on this front.
我們相信,鑑於目前的關稅使得進口產品與國內生產相比競爭力下降,北美的TID市場今天可以為我們帶來一些機會,我們已經看到這方面出現了積極的勢頭。
To conclude on the end markets, we like the fundamentals in each of the markets we serve, and we strongly believe that the diversification of our end markets is an asset for the company in any environment. With that, I turn it back over to Jean-Marc.
最後,關於終端市場,我們看好我們所服務的每個市場的基本面,我們堅信,在任何環境下,終端市場的多元化都是公司的資產。說完這些,我就把麥克風交還給了讓-馬克。
Jean-Marc Germain - Chief Executive Officer, Executive Director
Jean-Marc Germain - Chief Executive Officer, Executive Director
Thank you, Ingrid. Turning lastly to slide 16, we detail our key messages and financial guidance. Our team delivered very strong results. They were ahead of our expectations in the third quarter this year, including a record third quarter adjusted EBITDA, and we returned $25 million to shareholders in the quarter with a repurchase of 1.7 million shares, which led us to a reduced leverage of 3.1 times.
謝謝你,英格麗。最後,我們來看第 16 張投影片,詳細介紹我們的關鍵資訊和財務指導。我們的團隊取得了非常優異的成績。今年第三季度,他們的業績超出了我們的預期,包括創紀錄的第三季度調整後 EBITDA,並且我們在本季度透過回購 170 萬股股票向股東返還了 2,500 萬美元,這使我們的槓桿率降低至 3.1 倍。
While tariffs are creating broader macro uncertainty and impacting end markets like automotive, we are proactively managing our business to the current environment. We remain focused on strong cost control, free cash flow generation, and commercial and capital discipline.
雖然關稅造成了更廣泛的宏觀不確定性,並影響了汽車等終端市場,但我們正在積極主動地調整業務以適應當前環境。我們將繼續專注於嚴格的成本控制、自由現金流的產生以及商業和資本紀律。
Given our strong performance in the first nine months of this year and based on our current outlook, including the current and market conditions that Ingrid just described, we are raising our guidance for 2025. We are now targeting adjusted EBITDA, excluding the non-cash impact of metal price lag in the range of $670 million to $690 million and free cash flow in excess of $120 million.
鑑於我們今年前九個月的強勁表現,並基於我們目前的展望,包括英格麗德剛才所描述的當前市場狀況,我們提高了 2025 年的業績預期。我們現在的目標是調整後的 EBITDA(不包括金屬價格滯後帶來的非現金影響)在 6.7 億美元至 6.9 億美元之間,自由現金流超過 1.2 億美元。
Our guidance assumes an improvement in the second half this year compared to the first half, including our strong performance in the third quarter. The second half improvement includes the timing of certain tariff mitigations and customer compensations, as well as more favorable scrap purchasing, the ramp up in the valley, and favorable foreign exchange translation.
我們的業績預期是,今年下半年業績將比上半年有所改善,這得益於我們第三季的強勁表現。下半年的改善包括某些關稅減免和客戶補償的時機,以及更有利的廢料採購、山谷地區的產能提升和有利的外匯匯率。
Our guidance also assumes modest benefit from the recent aluminum supply chain interactions in automotive and includes a revision in our A&T segment that Jack mentioned previously. Looking to the future, we also want to reiterate our long-term targets of adjust EBITDA, excluding the non-cash impact of metal price lag of $900 million and free cash flow of $300 million in 2028.
我們的指導意見也假設近期汽車產業鋁供應鏈互動會帶來適度的益處,並包括傑克之前提到的對我們A&T部門的修訂。展望未來,我們也要重申我們的長期目標,在 2028 年實現調整後 EBITDA(不包括金屬價格滯後帶來的 9 億美元的非現金影響)和 3 億美元的自由現金流。
To conclude, while we continue to face challenging conditions in many of our markets today, some of these challenges are starting to ease compared to the start of this year. We are extremely well positioned for long-term success and remain focused on executing our strategy and shareholder value.
總之,雖然我們目前在許多市場仍然面臨挑戰,但與今年年初相比,其中一些挑戰已經開始緩解。我們已做好充分準備,迎接長期的成功,並將繼續專注於執行我們的策略,為股東創造價值。
Before we move to Q&A, I just want to say that it has been an extraordinary honor to lead and to work alongside such talented colleagues across the globe. Together we have built a stronger company, and I am deeply proud of what we have accomplished. Ingrid is an exceptional leader with a vision and experience to guide Constellium forward, and I am confident she will take the company to even greater heights.
在進入問答環節之前,我只想說,能夠領導並與全球如此才華橫溢的同事們一起工作,我感到無比榮幸。我們共同打造了一家更強大的公司,我為我們所取得的成就深感自豪。英格麗德是一位傑出的領導者,她擁有遠見卓識和豐富經驗,能夠帶領康斯坦利姆公司向前發展,我相信她會帶領公司走向更高的成就。
With that operator, we will now open the question.
有了這個運算符,我們現在就可以打開問題了。
Operator
Operator
(Operator Instructions) Katja Jancic, BMO Capital Markets.
(操作員說明)Katja Jancic,BMO 資本市場。
Katja Jancic - Analyst
Katja Jancic - Analyst
Hi. First, I want to congratulate both Ingrid and Jean-Marc. And then I want to start on the crap spread. I know you mentioned it was a small impact this quarter. It's going to be a bigger impact next quarter. Can you maybe provide a little bit more color on what that impact specifically was and will be, and then how we should think about looking into next year given that I think some of your contracts are being negotiated now.
你好。首先,我要祝賀英格麗德和讓-馬克。然後我想開始討論垃圾食物。我知道你提到這季度影響不大。下個季度影響會更大。您能否更詳細地說明一下具體的影響是什麼,以及將會產生什麼影響,還有,鑑於我認為您的一些合約目前正在談判中,我們應該如何考慮明年的情況?
Jean-Marc Germain - Chief Executive Officer, Executive Director
Jean-Marc Germain - Chief Executive Officer, Executive Director
Good morning, Katja. Thank you for your kind words and encouragement and talking now about scrap spreads. So if you remember in the past we are saying in any given quarter, scrap spreads can move, plus or minus $5 million, right? That was the past and obviously in '24 and in '25, we had unprecedented changes of scrap spreads, very much tightening in '24 and now widening in '25.
早上好,卡佳。感謝您的鼓勵與支持,現在我們來聊聊邊角料的擺放。所以,如果你還記得的話,我們過去說過,在任何一個季度,廢料價差都可能波動正負 500 萬美元,對吧?那是過去的事了,顯然在 2024 年和 2025 年,廢鋼價差發生了前所未有的變化,2024 年價差收窄了很多,而現在 2025 年價差又擴大了。
And we said the full impact in any given quarter can be $15 million to $20 million. However, plus or minus, right, in this case last year it was minus this year it's a plus. However, as we buy our scrap in staggered installments, and some of them are bought over a spot market, some of them are quarterly, some of them are yearly. So you've got some kind of a tail in terms of how these scrap spreads flow to our bottom line.
我們曾表示,任何一個季度造成的全部影響可能達到 1,500 萬美元至 2,000 萬美元。然而,正負值嘛,對吧,就這個例子來說,去年是負值,今年是正值。然而,由於我們分期購買廢料,其中一些是透過現貨市場購買的,有些是按季度購買的,有些是按年購買的。所以,這些廢料差價對我們的利潤影響還是有一定程度的。
In Q3, we were still buying scraps at spot prices but also higher prices from earlier in the year and Q4 that has significantly gone down and we're seeing the scrap spreads also widening as a consequence of the unfortunate fire we saw at one of our competitors.
第三季度,我們仍然以現貨價格購買廢鋼,但價格比年初高出不少;第四季度,價格大幅下降,而且由於我們的一位競爭對手不幸發生火災,我們看到廢鋼價差也在擴大。
Looking into next year, to your question about next year, if we remain in the same environment, we believe that there will be some further help from tailwind from scrap spreads. We still maintain, the $15 million to $20 million a quarter, but it wouldn't be, we would be realizing all of it next year and we've already realized some of it this year.
展望明年,關於您提出的明年情況,如果環境保持不變,我們相信廢鋼價差帶來的利多因素將進一步推動市場發展。我們仍然堅持每季1500萬至2000萬美元的目標,但實際上,我們明年才能全部實現,而今年我們已經實現了一部分。
Jack, do you want to add anything? Yeah.
傑克,你還有什麼要補充的嗎?是的。
Jack Guo - Chief Financial Officer
Jack Guo - Chief Financial Officer
I think the only thing I want to add, Katja, is that in Q3, we actually didn't see much benefits relative to last year given the dynamic that Jean-Marc mentioned and year-to-date it's actually been a headwind for us.
Katja,我唯一想補充的是,鑑於 Jean-Marc 提到的情況,我們在第三季度實際上並沒有看到與去年相比的太多好處,而且從今年到目前為止來看,這實際上對我們來說是一個不利因素。
Jean-Marc Germain - Chief Executive Officer, Executive Director
Jean-Marc Germain - Chief Executive Officer, Executive Director
Yeah, that's an important precision.
是的,這是一個很重要的細節。
Katja Jancic - Analyst
Katja Jancic - Analyst
Okay, and just because I'm thinking, I think the $15 million to 20 million was in '24, right, on a quarterly basis when the scrap spreads really compressed. But when we look at the Midwest premium where it is today, which is an all-time high, why I'm just trying to understand why the spreads, as we see them right now wouldn't contribute more than the $15 million to $20 million.
好的,我剛才在想,1500萬到2000萬美元應該是2024年,按季度計算的,當時廢料價格差確實收窄了。但當我們看看中西部地區的保費,它目前處於歷史最高水平,我只是想弄清楚,為什麼我們現在看到的價差不會貢獻超過 1500 萬美元到 2000 萬美元。
Jean-Marc Germain - Chief Executive Officer, Executive Director
Jean-Marc Germain - Chief Executive Officer, Executive Director
And I think that's what I mean, it's always part of what reference are you taking, right? Back in '24 we benefited from good scrap spreads that were bought in '23 and bad scrap spreads that were spot purchased, right? So that diminished the impact.
我想這就是我的意思,這始終取決於你參考的是什麼,對吧?回到 2024 年,我們受益於 2023 年購買的優質廢料價差和現貨購買的劣質廢料價差,對吧?這樣就減弱了影響。
This year, the same phenomenon happens the other way around and you're absolutely right that with enemy and well, mostly the Midwest rising. That is widening even more the spread in dollar terms, and we'll see most of that. We'll see some of that in Q4. We'll see most of that next year if the if the current environment continues.
今年,同樣的現象發生了相反的變化,你說的完全正確,敵人,尤其是中西部的敵人正在崛起。這會進一步拉大以美元計價的價差,我們將會看到大部分這種情況發生。我們將在第四季看到一些成果。如果目前的情況持續下去,我們明年就能看到大部分這種情況發生。
Katja Jancic - Analyst
Katja Jancic - Analyst
Okay (multiple speaker).
好的(多人發言)
Jean-Marc Germain - Chief Executive Officer, Executive Director
Jean-Marc Germain - Chief Executive Officer, Executive Director
Maybe just maybe just on the 15 and 20 maybe trending closer to the 20 and the 15 given the Midwest price.
或許,或許只是在15和20之間,考慮到中西部的價格,或許趨勢會更接近20和15。
Katja Jancic - Analyst
Katja Jancic - Analyst
Okay, thank you for that. And on the I know there was there was a quick mention on the novella Spire would have a small benefit in '26. Can you quantify how big of a benefit it could potentially be?
好的,謝謝。我知道在小說《尖塔》中曾被簡短地提及,這將在 26 年帶來一些好處。你能量化一下它可能帶來的潛在利益有多大嗎?
Jean-Marc Germain - Chief Executive Officer, Executive Director
Jean-Marc Germain - Chief Executive Officer, Executive Director
It's enough that we talk about it, but not enough that we would put a number just yet. It will depend on a number of factors, as following this fire, the whole industry rallied to support our common customers, right, but it was very hard to deliver in quantities in the just in the wake of the fire because products need to come a little bit from the US, which is actually quite Tapped out in terms of capacity, so a lot of it needs to come from overseas. That takes time.
我們現在討論這個問題已經足夠了,但還不足以給出具體的數字。這取決於許多因素,因為這場火災之後,整個行業都團結起來支持我們的共同客戶,對吧?但是,在火災發生後不久,很難大量交付產品,因為產品需要從美國進口,而美國的產能實際上已經相當緊張,所以許多產品需要從海外進口。那需要時間。
You need qualification time even if it's accelerated. So we think we're going to see some benefit in '26, more in 26 than we're seeing in '24, '25, sorry, and that should continue, through the first half of '26. A precise number is too early to tell.
即使是加速資格認證,也需要資格認證時間。所以我們認為 2026 年會有一些好處,比 2024 年、2025 年(抱歉)看到的要多,而且這種情況應該會持續到 2026 年上半年。現在給出確切數字還為時過早。
Operator
Operator
Corinne Blanchard, Deutsche Bank.
科琳‧布蘭查德,德意志銀行。
Corinne Blanchard - Analyst
Corinne Blanchard - Analyst
Hey, good morning. Thank you for taking my question and Congratulations on the strong quarter Jean-Marc. I'm sure you will be missed and welcome to Ingrid, and I'm sure people will be looking forward to hear more in the coming weeks.
嘿,早安。感謝您回答我的問題,並祝賀Jean-Marc本季業績優異。我相信大家都會想念你,歡迎你回來,英格麗德,也相信大家會期待在接下來的幾週聽到更多你的消息。
Maybe two questions. I mean, on the Aerospace, I mean you guys have a. An amazing margin profile if you look back in the last four to six quarters, and I think we're only seeing an increase. Can you help us understand how do we model it out in 4Q in 2026.
或許可以問兩個問題。我的意思是,在航空航太領域,我的意思是你們有…回顧過去四到六個季度,利潤率表現非常出色,我認為利潤率只會繼續增長。您能幫我們了解如何在 2026 年第四季進行建模嗎?
And then maybe the second question would be. Now you're about $200 million away from that $900 million of EBITDA by 2028. Can you just help me again bridge the gap, over the next two years and how to think about it from a volume and pricing perspective. Thank you.
那麼第二個問題或許會是:現在距離 2028 年實現 9 億美元的 EBITDA 目標還差約 2 億美元。您能否再次幫我彌補未來兩年的差距,並從銷售和定價的角度考慮這個問題?謝謝。
Jean-Marc Germain - Chief Executive Officer, Executive Director
Jean-Marc Germain - Chief Executive Officer, Executive Director
Good morning, Corinne, and I'll ask my colleagues, both Ingria and Jack to help me in answering your two questions. So, but I'll take a crack at it first. If you take the midpoint of the range, we are $220 million away from our 2028 target, so there's still quite a bit of wood to chop, but I think it's fair to say we are ahead of our plan and we feel more confident now.
早安,科琳,我會請我的同事英格麗亞和傑克幫我回答你的兩個問題。所以,我會先試試看。如果取區間的中點,我們距離 2028 年的目標還有 2.2 億美元,所以還有相當多的路要走,但我認為可以公平地說,我們目前的進度領先於計劃,我們現在也更有信心了。
We felt very confident, we even more confident with our 2028 target. If you remember the bridge to '28, we had a number of actions, but a lot of them were under our control. We have some specific investments that are in the plan. They are actually some of them are already operating like a recycle center in.
我們當時就很有信心,對2028年的目標更是充滿信心。如果你還記得通往 1928 年的橋樑,我們採取了許多行動,但其中許多行動都在我們掌控之中。我們有一些具體的投資計劃。實際上,其中一些已經像回收中心一樣運作了。
Others we are digging furiously. Others we are building furiously. And I'm thinking of the casting center in Muscle Shoals and the [Airbus], the aerospace focused products in, and then we have some that are still on the drawing boards, even though we are starting to buy some long lead time items like the modernization and extension of our cast in Ravenswood.
其他一些地方我們正在全力挖掘。其他項目我們正在加緊建設。我想到了馬斯爾肖爾斯的鑄造中心和[空中巴士],以及專注於航空航天的產品,然後我們還有一些產品仍在設計階段,儘管我們已經開始購買一些交貨週期長的物品,例如拉文斯伍德鑄造廠的現代化和擴建。
And when I say these are under our controls, they are under our control from two standpoints. One is it's CapEx, right, so we build stuff and then we'll make products out of it. The other one is we don't need customers for these to be profitable and certainly as most of these investments are geared towards recycling more products and obviously in the current environment, these investments are going to be more exciting and more profitable.
我說這些都在我們的控制之下,指的是從兩個方面來說,這些都在我們的控制之下。一是資本支出,對吧?所以我們先建造東西,然後再用它來生產產品。另一個原因是,這些投資不需要客戶就能獲利,而且由於大多數投資都旨在回收更多產品,顯然在當前環境下,這些投資將會更加令人興奮,也更加有利可圖。
The investment is a little bit of a different story, even though it's casting. You need customers for that, and I think what we're seeing with the aerospace ramp up getting a little bit easier and especially the development in space applications where we have a very strong position.
雖然涉及選角,但投資方面的情況略有不同。你需要客戶,我認為我們看到航空航太領域的產能提升正在變得更容易一些,尤其是在太空應用領域的開發,我們在這方面擁有非常強大的地位。
I think that bodes very well for this investment. So overall, it's a long answer to one part of the bridge, right, the CapEx side, we feel very comfortable with our execution and CapEx and our ability to make money and maybe more money, than what we had initially planned with those investments. Now there were other aspects to the bridge.
我認為這對這項投資來說是個非常好的預兆。所以總的來說,這是對橋樑的一部分,也就是資本支出的一個較長的答案。我們對自身的執行力、資本支出以及賺錢的能力感到非常滿意,而且我們可能比最初計劃的這些投資賺到更多錢。這座橋還有其他面向。
Some of it was, our outlook on scrap spreads. The scrap spreads we have in the bridge to 2028. Are lower, I mean, narrower Just to be precise on what is currently the case, much narrower. We'll see whether the current spreads continue. And if they are, that would be a tailwind to us.
部分原因是我們對廢料價格走勢的預期。我們預計到 2028 年將出現一系列廢料。更低,我的意思是,更窄。更準確地說,是窄得多。我們將觀察目前的蔓延趨勢是否會持續。如果真是如此,那對我們來說將是一大利好。
Now on the headwind side, I think it's fair to say that we're disappointed with the automotive, the end market, right, the number, the SARS, the number of vehicles that are built in Europe especially, but also a little bit in the US, so that would be a headwind and we are seeing, overall weak conditions in Europe now.
現在說說不利因素,我認為可以公平地說,我們對汽車行業,尤其是終端市場,感到失望,對吧? SARS疫情導致歐洲汽車產量下降,美國汽車產量也有所下降,這無疑是一個不利因素,我們現在看到,歐洲整體形勢疲軟。
By 2028, I think Europe will have gotten their act together and things will be better, but at the moment, if I look honestly at it, I think we're running behind on that front. So that's kind of the puts and take to the 2028 target and obviously on the cost side we've done very good progress with our cost management with vision '25 more to come.
我認為到 2028 年,歐洲將會步入正軌,情況會好轉,但就目前而言,如果我誠實地看待這個問題,我認為我們在這方面已經落後了。所以這就是 2028 年目標的大致情況,顯然在成本方面,我們在成本管理方面取得了非常好的進展,未來還有更多願景可以實現。
I'm sure Ingrid will have a new plan for us, for the company in the future. So I think we're we're in pretty good shape on this. And then you had a question also on Aerospace. I think Ingrid knows aerospace inside out, so she answers it and obviously you've got your own views on the 2028 long-term. So please go ahead.
我相信英格麗德將來會為我們、為公司製定新的計畫。所以我覺得我們在這方面情況相當不錯。然後你還問了一個關於航空航天的問題。我認為英格麗德對航空航太領域瞭如指掌,所以她能回答這個問題,顯然你對 2028 年的長期發展也有自己的看法。請繼續。
Ingrid Joerg - Executive Vice President & Chief Financial Officer
Ingrid Joerg - Executive Vice President & Chief Financial Officer
Thank you very much, Marc, and thank you Corinne for your nice words. I think with respect to aerospace, I think what makes us very different from some of our competitors is that we have a very wide product portfolio, including aluminum lithium technology, which is really a great material for a lot of niche markets where we play. So we are really focused on more value-added per product that we sell versus some of our competitors are maybe more dependent on volume ramp ups of aerospace
非常感謝你,馬克,也謝謝科琳的讚美之詞。我認為就航空航太領域而言,我們與一些競爭對手最大的不同之處在於,我們擁有非常廣泛的產品組合,包括鋁鋰技術,這對於我們所涉足的許多細分市場來說都是一種非常好的材料。因此,我們真正關注的是提高我們所售每件產品的附加價值,而我們的一些競爭對手可能更依賴航空航太領域的產量成長。
And this is really driving our margin that is very different to some of our peers and that's really a multi-year journey that we have developed with our R&D capabilities. So we have a lot of a lot of Innovation material in the pipeline that is driving this differentiated margin, and we will continue to work on this.
而這正是我們利潤率與一些同業截然不同的真正驅動力,也是我們憑藉研發能力多年來不斷發展的成果。因此,我們有許多創新產品正在研發中,這些產品將推動這種差異化的利潤率,我們將繼續在這方面努力。
You also know military jets are good. Space has been actually quite good for us in terms of development and overall the supply chain in aerospace seems to improve, particularly on the side of Airbus. With respect to 2028, I think Jean-Marc has already mentioned almost all of it.
你也知道軍用噴射機很好。從發展角度來看,太空領域其實對我們相當有利,而且航空航太領域的供應鏈整體似乎也在改善,尤其是空中巴士。關於 2028 年,我認為 Jean-Marc 已經幾乎全部提到過了。
I would just maybe add one little point around commercial discipline and operational execution. I think you have seen now that (inaudible) has much better. Performance driven in part by the Muscle Shoals operational performance, so that remains a huge focus for us.
我可能還要補充一點關於商業紀律和營運執行的內容。我想你現在已經看到了,(聽不清楚)的情況要好得多。業績部分取決於 Muscle Shoals 的營運表現,因此這仍然是我們關注的重點。
We have worked very hard already on this, on the cross side and operational excellence, but we still have potential to improve, and this will also be part of our journey to the $900 million for 2028.
我們已經在跨部門和卓越營運方面付出了很多努力,但我們仍有改進的空間,這也將是我們實現 2028 年 9 億美元目標的一部分。
Corinne Blanchard - Analyst
Corinne Blanchard - Analyst
Thank you very much.
非常感謝。
Jean-Marc Germain - Chief Executive Officer, Executive Director
Jean-Marc Germain - Chief Executive Officer, Executive Director
I will just add, I mean, Ingrid doesn't brag about it, but you guys have followed us for quite a while. You see our aerospace margin which you hinted at being exceptional this quarter, Corinne, we see our, we're at more than 1,500, 1,600 year-to-date. When Ingrid took over the A&T segment that's [20, 15], right, 10 years ago, we're running at less than $500 (inaudible).
我還要補充一點,雖然英格麗並沒有炫耀這件事,但你們關注我們已經很久了。科琳,你也提到我們本季的航空航太利潤率非常出色,我們看到,今年迄今為止,我們的利潤率已經超過 1500、1600%。10 年前,當 Ingrid 接管 A&T 業務時,我們的營運成本不到 500 美元(聽不清楚)。
So the focus on value-added cannot be. Understated overstated, sorry, we have really an excellent commercial and careful discipline to make sure we an innovation drive to make sure we get the best out of our assets so that we get the best returns for shareholders.
因此,不能只專注於增值。不,應該說我們言辭謙虛,言辭誇張。我們擁有卓越的商業能力和嚴謹的紀律,確保我們不斷創新,從而最大限度地利用我們的資產,為股東帶來最佳回報。
Operator
Operator
Bill Peterson, JP Morgan.
比爾彼得森,摩根大通。
Bill Peterson - Analyst
Bill Peterson - Analyst
Yeah, hi, good morning, thanks for taking the questions. Also would like to congratulate Ingrid in the new appointment and also Jean-Marc. It's been a pleasure working with you. Wanted to first ask about the bridge just basically to understand the drivers for the 2025 guidance if you can quantify or stack rank, things like the one-time customer payment, any benefit or if there is any benefit from the restatement you spoke to.
是的,你好,早安,謝謝你回答這些問題。也想祝賀 Ingrid 和 Jean-Marc 榮任新職。和您一起工作非常愉快。首先想問一下關於橋樑的問題,主要是想了解 2025 年指導意見的驅動因素,如果可以的話,能否量化或排序一下,例如一次性客戶付款、任何好處,或者您提到的重述是否有任何好處。
Maybe the potential tariff headwind, which may not be as much of a headwind or where you maybe found some success, versus what you've been able to mitigate, and then of course scrap spreads just to try to really define how much I guess of a benefit we should think about in the fourth quarter, or if there's anything else to raise, as part of why you raised your guidance for this year.
或許潛在的關稅阻力(這可能並非真正的阻力,或者說你可能已經取得了一些成功,與你已經能夠緩解的阻力相比),當然還有廢料價格差,只是想真正確定我們應該在第四季度考慮多少收益,或者是否還有其他因素需要提高,作為你提高今年業績預期的一部分。
Jean-Marc Germain - Chief Executive Officer, Executive Director
Jean-Marc Germain - Chief Executive Officer, Executive Director
Good morning and thank you, and I'll turn it to Jack for this difficult question.
早安,謝謝。接下來,我將請傑克來回答這個難題。
Jack Guo - Chief Financial Officer
Jack Guo - Chief Financial Officer
Yes, I'll start marketing can help me. So you mentioned a few elements, Bill. I think you have, there's a reference point you have to be careful about whether it's versus, our prior expectation or kind of versus, prior year if you will, and the expectation there, but for customer compensation, for example, AS&I that was already embedded in our prior guidance. Now we did realize the benefits this quarter, which is great.
是的,我會開始做行銷,這能幫到我。比爾,你剛才提到了一些要素。我認為你已經掌握了這一點,你需要注意一個參考點,即它是與我們之前的預期進行比較,還是與上一年進行比較,以及那裡的預期,但例如客戶補償,AS&I,這已經包含在我們之前的指導中了。本季我們已經實現了收益,這很好。
And specifically in terms of the amount we're not going to be very kind of explicit, but if you were to refer to the bridge in the price and mix bucket, mix was a little bit more favorable if you will, but then the vast majority of the price is driven by this customer compensation for the underperformance of automotive program. So that's kind of one piece.
至於具體金額,我們不會說得很清楚,但如果你指的是價格和組合方面的過渡,組合方面稍微有利一些,但價格的絕大部分是由客戶對汽車項目表現不佳的補償所驅動的。所以這算是其中一部分。
And then, in terms of raising the guidance, obviously we had a very strong third quarter which has lend us, give us more conviction into Q4 and to finish off the year, and Q3 came in better than what we had expected.
至於提高業績預期,顯然我們第三季表現非常強勁,這讓我們對第四季以及年底的業績更有信心,而且第三季的業績也比我們預期的要好。
On top of it, you alluded to this accounting adjustment and the magnitude there, we can be very explicit because it's been disclosed it's for the first half of the year. It's in the neighborhood of, [10] $12 million to be exact, $12 million of benefits, a good guy for A&T segments.
此外,您還提到了這項會計調整及其規模,我們可以非常明確地說明,因為已經披露這是上半年的調整。確切地說,金額約為 1200 萬美元 [10],1200 萬美元的福利,對於 A&T 部門來說是個好人。
And then in terms of the scrap piece, I think John [McCarthy] talked a lot about the dynamics there. We didn't see as much. Benefits maybe you would have imagined based on where the stock markets are today, year-to-date, but we do expect to see more benefits in the fourth quarter given our kind of more open positions and some modest benefits coming in from the unfortunate fire that happened at one of our competitors plants.
至於廢料部分,我認為約翰·麥卡錫(John McCarthy)談了很多關於其中的動態。我們沒看到多少。根據今年迄今為止的股市狀況,您可能已經預料到會有收益,但鑑於我們持有的更多未平倉頭寸,以及競爭對手工廠發生的不幸火災帶來的一些適度收益,我們預計第四季度會有更多收益。
And obviously we'll continue to focus on cost control and vision '25, on the flip side and here I'm going to a little bit of kind of puts and takes, right, on the other side when you look at the guidance for Q4 with the relation to the view on the full year.
顯然,我們將繼續專注於成本控制和「2025願景」。另一方面,在這裡我要做一些權衡,對吧?另一方面,當你查看第四季度的業績指引以及與全年展望的關係。
We have very strong performance in A&T. We're able to benefit from a favorable, mix in aerospace, due to a good volume of high margin products, which could help compensate for a weaker mix in the fourth quarter due to timing and then Europe continues to be quite weak across many different markets and by the way, yes, we should see some modest benefit from the fire.
我們在A&T領域表現非常出色。由於航空航太領域高利潤產品的良好銷量,我們能夠從有利的產品組合中受益,這有助於彌補第四季度因時間因素導致的產品組合疲軟。此外,歐洲在許多不同市場仍然相當疲軟。順便說一句,是的,我們應該會從這場火災中得到一些輕微的好處。
At our competitors' plans, but on the other hand, it also, it's creating a little bit of uncertainty or volatility with water patterns patterns with the domestic OEMs, so you got to take that into consideration.
在我們的競爭對手的計劃中,但另一方面,這也為國內 OEM 的水資源模式帶來了一些不確定性或波動性,所以你必須考慮到這一點。
Jean-Marc Germain - Chief Executive Officer, Executive Director
Jean-Marc Germain - Chief Executive Officer, Executive Director
And maybe more specifically to this point, they, we'll sell more roll products. But not enough obviously to compensate for the shortfall that is created by this fire. You've heard Ford reduce their projections for build rates, and obviously we also supply out of auto structures and industry products to different customers including this one.
更具體地說,就這一點而言,我們將銷售更多卷材產品。但顯然不足以彌補這場火災造成的損失。您可能已經聽說福特下調了生產力預期,而且顯然我們也向包括福特在內的不同客戶提供汽車結構和工業產品。
So if they don't build the cars, we don't sell the product. So there's all kinds of puts and takes to our -- to do this guidance here, but fundamentally we have momentum is I think the main message.
所以如果他們不造車,我們就賣不出產品。所以,我們在這裡提供指導意見有很多種,但從根本上來說,我們擁有發展勢頭,我認為這才是主要訊息。
Bill Peterson - Analyst
Bill Peterson - Analyst
Yeah, I know a lot there. I appreciate the color. Wanted to ask a bit more on aerospace. It sounds incrementally more positive that the aerospace destocking is easing, I guess. How should we view the recovery? Is this still kind of maybe in your mind more of a 2027 story or is this -- can this actually revert and turn positive in '26 trying to get a sense for the trajectory of coming out of this destocking cycle.
是的,我對那方面了解很多。我喜歡這個顏色。想再問一些關於航空航天方面的問題。聽起來,航空航太業去庫存化進程有所放緩,這算是比較正面的訊號吧。我們該如何看待經濟復甦?在你看來,這是否更像是 2027 年的故事,或者——這是否真的有可能在 2026 年逆轉並轉為積極?試圖了解擺脫此次去庫存週期的軌跡。
Ingrid Joerg - Executive Vice President & Chief Financial Officer
Ingrid Joerg - Executive Vice President & Chief Financial Officer
Thanks for the question. I believe that I mean it's very hard to predict because you know there are new issues popping up as they ramp up, but clearly we see, particularly on the European side, that now it's only 2% of the supply chain that is holding back the rest of the supply chain, so it's a very small number today. And I'm sure with the different task forces that to overcome those challenges, this is going to ease throughout the year of 2026.
謝謝你的提問。我認為,這很難預測,因為你知道,隨著問題的加劇,新的問題也會不斷出現,但很明顯,尤其是在歐洲方面,我們看到,現在只有 2% 的供應鏈阻礙了其他供應鏈的運轉,所以今天這個數字非常小。我相信,在各個工作小組的努力下,為了克服這些挑戰,這種情況將在 2026 年得到緩解。
Now whether it's going to come towards the end of '26 or '27, I think still remains to be seen, but clearly there is an improvement that we feel across the supply chain. And you have heard also that Boeing is going to raise the build rates. They got approval from the [FAA] for the 737 Max, even though it's small, but it's the first path to the trajectory of growth that they have been painting to the suppliers.
至於它會在 2026 年底還是 2027 年底到來,我認為還有待觀察,但很明顯,我們感覺到了整個供應鏈的改善。你也聽過波音公司將提高生產速度。他們獲得了美國聯邦航空管理局 (FAA) 對 737 Max 的批准,儘管它很小,但這是他們向供應商描繪的成長軌蹟的第一步。
So I feel that things are starting to come together and in a few quarters from now we should see a potentially a much better picture than we see today.
所以我感覺事情正在逐漸明朗化,再過幾個季度,我們應該會看到比今天好得多的局面。
Jean-Marc Germain - Chief Executive Officer, Executive Director
Jean-Marc Germain - Chief Executive Officer, Executive Director
Well, I think it's fair to say that we are more optimistic about the faster path to recovery for the supply chain than we were three months ago.
嗯,我認為可以公平地說,我們現在對供應鏈更快復甦的前景比三個月前更加樂觀。
Ingrid Joerg - Executive Vice President & Chief Financial Officer
Ingrid Joerg - Executive Vice President & Chief Financial Officer
Yes, definitely.
是的,當然。
Jean-Marc Germain - Chief Executive Officer, Executive Director
Jean-Marc Germain - Chief Executive Officer, Executive Director
it's difficult to put a date to it. We'll let you know as soon as we see.
很難確定具體日期。我們一看到消息就會通知你。
Operator
Operator
(Operator Instructions) [Tim Natane], [CFTM].
(操作說明)[Tim Natane],[CFTM]。
Unidentified Participant
Unidentified Participant
Yeah, hey, good morning. Thanks, and congrats to Ingrid. Best wishes to Jean-Marc. I wanted to follow-up with the same kind of question that Bill asked on aerospace, but on the broader European market. I know for a while now we've been waiting for that market to kind of bottom out broadly. Any, things that we should watch for interest rates, any sentiment, anything that you can guide us to get confidence in a turnaround in Europe and timing there.
是啊,嘿,早安。謝謝,也祝賀英格麗。祝讓-馬克一切順利。我想就航空航太領域提出類似比爾提出的問題,但這次是關於更廣泛的歐洲市場。我知道我們已經等待這個市場整體觸底反彈了一段時間。我們應該關注哪些方面,例如利率、市場情緒,或任何能夠幫助我們重拾對歐洲經濟復甦信心以及掌握復甦時機的資訊?
Jean-Marc Germain - Chief Executive Officer, Executive Director
Jean-Marc Germain - Chief Executive Officer, Executive Director
Good morning, Tim. Thank you. You're talking the broad European market beyond aerospace, right? Okay.
早安,提姆。謝謝。您指的是航空航太以外的整個歐洲市場,對嗎?好的。
Ingrid Joerg - Executive Vice President & Chief Financial Officer
Ingrid Joerg - Executive Vice President & Chief Financial Officer
Yeah. Hello, thank you for the question. Yeah, I think it feels that the markets have been really weak for three years now, and we see some markets to really bottom out. It's very difficult to predict, as we have strong markets in Europe like packaging is very strong for can she, but also other packaging markets like flexible packaging. So these are running very well and very stable.
是的。您好,感謝您的提問。是的,我覺得市場已經疲軟三年了,我們看到有些市場真的已經觸底。很難預測,因為歐洲的包裝市場非常強勁,罐頭包裝市場也很強勁,其他包裝市場如軟包裝市場也很強勁。這些設備運作得非常好,非常穩定。
Automotive, of course, is impacted by everything that's happening from the tariffs to the transition to electric vehicles. So I think there's a lot of questions right now on what is the best powertrain for the future and how is regulation going to change. So I think a lot of our automotive customers are really reviewing what their strategy medium to long-term is really going to be.
當然,汽車產業會受到從關稅到向電動車轉型等所有因素的影響。所以我覺得現在有很多問題,例如未來最好的動力系統是什麼,以及監管將如何改變。所以我認為,我們很多汽車客戶都在認真重新審視他們的中長期策略究竟是什麼。
And then I think on industrial markets we see mixed pictures. I mean some of our operations are well loaded. Some operations are really struggling. Rail business is good and continues to grow. So I would say it's a very diversified picture. It's clear that the more commodity-based markets like building and construction where we don't really have a footprint, continue to be weak, so I would say there's.
然後,我認為工業市場的情況比較複雜。我的意思是,我們的一些業務負荷很重。有些業務確實舉步維艱。鐵路業務發展良好,並持續成長。所以我覺得這是一個非常多元化的景象。很明顯,像建築和施工這類我們還沒有真正涉足的以大宗商品為基礎的市場仍然疲軟,所以我認為情況並非如此。
Jean-Marc Germain - Chief Executive Officer, Executive Director
Jean-Marc Germain - Chief Executive Officer, Executive Director
Negatives to Ingrid's point about three years and counting, Germany. Seems to go into a mode of, stimulating a little bit more of its economy, so that's a positive -- should be a positive, and then you've got defense spending, which should ramp up as well where we are well positioned. So I think the way to think of Europe is a tale of many different niches, right?
反駁 Ingrid 的觀點,那就是德國已經持續三年多了。似乎正在進入一種刺激經濟的模式,所以這是一個積極的信號——應該是一個積極的信號,然後還有國防開支,這方面我們也應該會增加,而我們在這方面處於有利地位。所以我認為看待歐洲的方式就是把它看作是由許多不同的細分領域組成的,對吧?
There's one big market, Gangi, which is great. Actually it's under supply. We're sold out for many years. And then you've got plenty of different niches. There are some good, some bad, and automotive, I think the jury is still out.
這裡有一個很大的市場,叫甘吉市場,非常棒。實際上,它的供應量不足。我們已經售罄多年了。然後你就有很多不同的市場區隔了。有些是好的,有些是壞的,至於汽車產業,我認為目前還沒有定論。
Unidentified Participant
Unidentified Participant
Okay, thank you. My other question is just trying to dig in a little bit on the impact of the rising aluminum and Midwest premium price in particular. So I know you exclude the non-cash impact of the metal price lag, but the higher EBITDA guidance and no change in free cash flow implies. Increase in working capital that makes sense.
好的,謝謝。我的另一個問題是想深入了解鋁價上漲,特別是中西部地區溢價上漲的影響。我知道您排除了金屬價格滯後帶來的非現金影響,但更高的 EBITDA 預期和自由現金流不變意味著。增加營運資金是合理的。
Can you talk us through any or quantify any benefits of the price run up in the quarter for your higher EBITDA, or is that at all an impact? And if you could also address the way to think about the impact as well.
您能否詳細說明或量化本季股價上漲對貴公司 EBITDA 提高的任何好處,或者股價上漲是否會產生任何影響?如果您還能談談如何看待這種影響就更好了。
Jean-Marc Germain - Chief Executive Officer, Executive Director
Jean-Marc Germain - Chief Executive Officer, Executive Director
So Jack will help me, but on the side, the only benefit from the rise in LME and Midwest is actually through scrap spreads right which follow, supply demand balance situation and it's favorable to the buyers today. But that's an impact we have, right? Recycling becomes more profitable when the material is more expensive, primary is more expensive, and recycling, scrap becomes more profitable.
所以傑克會幫我,但另一方面,倫敦金屬交易所和中西部地區價格上漲帶來的唯一好處實際上是廢鋼價差,這符合供需平衡的現狀,對今天的買家有利。但這就是我們產生的影響,對吧?當原料價格更高時,回收利用就更有利可圖;原生材料價格更高時,回收廢料就更有利可圖。
But on the on the other aspects, it's a pass through business, so you may have a little bit of a timing related impact, one month to the next, but that's Nothing really to write home about and on the cash impact rising metal prices means we need to replenish our inventories constantly and we replenish them with more expensive metals. So that is a drag on our cash flow. That's a one off drag on our cash flow this year.
但就其他方面而言,這是一個轉嫁式業務,所以可能會有一些時間上的影響,例如一個月到下個月之間,但這沒什麼值得大驚小怪的。至於現金流的影響,金屬價格上漲意味著我們需要不斷補充庫存,而我們補充庫存的金屬價格更高。所以這會對我們的現金流造成拖累。這是今年對我們現金流的一次性拖累。
Jack Guo - Chief Financial Officer
Jack Guo - Chief Financial Officer
Yeah, and I think, I mean it's a type of question, Tim, that we can go into a lot more details afterwards, right, but maybe one way to think about it is to take a look at the changes in working capital over the first nine months and you see it's a large negative. Now there's an element related to higher activities, right, we're doing more business, higher volume, but then there's a big piece there related to the metal price increase.
是的,提姆,我認為,這是一個我們可以之後詳細討論的問題,對吧?但或許可以這樣思考:看看前九個月營運資本的變化,你會發現這是一個很大的負面變化。現在,這其中既有與業務活動增加相關的因素,對吧?我們的業務量更大,交易量更高;也有很大一部分原因與金屬價格上漲有關。
But all in all, on a net basis, that's why we have maintained our free cash flow guidance of over $120 million even though you know. Even though I just, excluding a lag, the guidance there was.
但總而言之,從淨收益來看,這就是為什麼我們仍然維持超過 1.2 億美元的自由現金流預期,即使你知道…即使我只是(排除延遲),那裡也有指導。
Jean-Marc Germain - Chief Executive Officer, Executive Director
Jean-Marc Germain - Chief Executive Officer, Executive Director
Just to build on that, if you look at our initial guidance and now our guidance today the EBITDA has increased. The cash flow hasn't, and the delta here can approximate the drag we get on (inaudible) because of the Midwest going up, right? So that gives you an idea, are in the 60s, 70, 80, 90 million, that's kind of a broad range of drag we have.
在此基礎上,如果您看一下我們最初的指導意見和我們今天的指導意見,您會發現 EBITDA 已經有所增長。現金流並沒有改善,這裡的差額可以近似地反映出由於中西部地區經濟上漲而給我們帶來的(聽不清楚)拖累,對吧?所以這讓你對情況有個概念,我們的拖曳物數量在 6000 萬、7000 萬、8000 萬、9000 萬之間,這是我們拖曳物數量分佈的一個相當廣泛的範圍。
So what it means is the cash flow generation. If everything helps exactly the same next year at 120 is vastly understated.
所以,它指的是現金流的產生。如果明年一切都和往年一樣順利,那麼達到 120 就遠遠低估了。
Unidentified Participant
Unidentified Participant
Right, and just to finally clarify, so the guidance does reflect the fact that the aluminum price is even higher today's spot price than where it was average for the third quarter. Is that reflected in your guide?
好的,最後再澄清一下,該指引確實反映了這樣一個事實:目前的鋁價現貨價格甚至高於第三季的平均值。你的指南中是否體現了這一點?
Jean-Marc Germain - Chief Executive Officer, Executive Director
Jean-Marc Germain - Chief Executive Officer, Executive Director
Absolutely.
絕對地。
Operator
Operator
Thank you. We have no further questions at this time, so I'll hand back to Jean-Marc Germain, CEO of Constellion, for closing remarks.
謝謝。目前我們沒有其他問題,所以接下來我將把發言權交還給 Constellion 的執行長 Jean-Marc Germain,請他作總結發言。
Jean-Marc Germain - Chief Executive Officer, Executive Director
Jean-Marc Germain - Chief Executive Officer, Executive Director
Thank you, everybody. So as you can see, we are ahead of our plan. We are building momentum, and our new CEO, Ingrid is ideally suited to lead the company towards its 28 objectives and beyond. I live as CEO at the end of the year, but I remain as a shareholder and an adviser to the board, very excited about what's ahead.
謝謝大家。如你所見,我們的進度比計劃提前了。我們正在積蓄力量,我們的新任執行長英格麗德非常適合帶領公司實現 28 個目標並取得更大成就。年底我將卸任執行長一職,但我仍將是股東和董事會顧問,對未來充滿期待。
And I am very much look forward to hearing about our prospects for 2026 from Jack and Ingrid, when they update us on our progress in February of next year. Thank you, everybody, and have a good day. Bye. Ingrid?
我非常期待傑克和英格麗德在明年二月向我們報告進展時,告訴我們關於 2026 年的前景。謝謝大家,祝大家今天過得愉快。再見。英格麗德?
Ingrid Joerg - Executive Vice President & Chief Financial Officer
Ingrid Joerg - Executive Vice President & Chief Financial Officer
Thank you very much, Jean Marc, for your kind words. Well, thanks everybody for your interest in Constellium. We are happy with the progress we made, as Jean-Marc just said, and we look forward to an exciting end of the year. We also look forward to updating you on our progress in February, and thank you very much in the meantime. Bye bye.
非常感謝Jean Marc的讚美。感謝大家對 Constellium 的關注。正如讓-馬克剛才所說,我們對取得的進展感到滿意,並期待著一個激動人心的年底。我們也期待在二月向您報告我們的進展情況,同時非常感謝您一直以來的支持。再見。
Operator
Operator
This concludes today's conference call. Thank you all for participating. You may now disconnect your lines. Thank you and have a great day.
今天的電話會議到此結束。感謝大家的參與。現在您可以斷開線路了。謝謝,祝您今天過得愉快。