Constellium SE (CSTM) 2025 Q1 法說會逐字稿

Good morning or good afternoon, all. Welcome to the Constellium first-quarter 2025 results call. My name is Adam, and I'll be your operator today. (Operator Instructions)

大家早安或下午好。歡迎參加 Constellium 2025 年第一季業績電話會議。我叫亞當，今天我將擔任您的接線生。（操作員指示）

I will now hand over to Jason Hershiser, Director of Investor Relations to begin. So Jason, please go ahead.

現在我將把發言權交給投資人關係總監 Jason Hershiser。那麼 Jason，請繼續。

Thank you, Adam. I would like to welcome everyone to our first-quarter 2025 earnings call. On the call today, we have our Chief Executive Officer, Jean-Marc Germain; and our Chief Financial Officer, Jack Guo. After the presentation, we will have a Q&A session. A copy of the slide presentation for today's call is available on our website at constellium.com, and today's call is being recorded.

謝謝你，亞當。歡迎大家參加我們的 2025 年第一季財報電話會議。參加今天電話會議的有我們的執行長 Jean-Marc Germain 和財務長 Jack Guo。演講結束後，我們將進行問答環節。今天電話會議的幻燈片簡報副本可在我們的網站 constellium.com 上找到，並且今天的電話會議正在錄製。

Before we begin, I'd like to encourage everyone to visit the company's website and take a look at our recent filings. Today's call may include forward-looking statements within the meaning of the Private Securities Litigation Reform Act of 1995. Such statements include statements regarding the company's anticipated financial and operating performance, future events, and expectations that may involve known and unknown risks and uncertainties. For a summary of specific risk factors that could cause results to differ materially from those expressed in the forward-looking statements, please refer to our factors presented under the heading Risk Factors in our annual report on Form 10-K.

在我們開始之前，我想鼓勵大家訪問公司的網站並查看我們最近的文件。今天的電話會議可能包括 1995 年《私人證券訴訟改革法案》所定義的前瞻性陳述。此類聲明包括有關公司預期財務和經營業績、未來事件以及可能涉及已知和未知風險和不確定性的期望的聲明。有關可能導致結果與前瞻性陳述中表達的結果有重大差異的具體風險因素的摘要，請參閱我們 10-K 表格年度報告中「風險因素」標題下列出的因素。

All information in this presentation is as of the date of the presentation. We undertake no obligation to update or revise any forward-looking statement as a result of new information, future events, or otherwise, except as required by law. In addition, today's presentation includes information regarding certain non-GAAP financial measures. Please see the reconciliations of non-GAAP financial measures attached in today's slide presentation which supplement our GAAP disclosures.

本簡報中的所有資訊均截至簡報發布之日。除非法律要求，我們不承擔因新資訊、未來事件或其他原因而更新或修改任何前瞻性聲明的義務。此外，今天的演示還包括有關某些非公認會計準則財務指標的資訊。請參閱今天的幻燈片簡報中附帶的非 GAAP 財務指標對帳表，該對帳表補充了我們的 GAAP 揭露。

And with that, I would now like to hand the call over to Jean-Marc.

現在，我想將發言權交給 Jean-Marc。

Thank you, Jason. Good morning, good afternoon, everyone, and thank you for your interest in Constellium. Let's begin on slide 5 and discuss the highlights from our first quarter results. I would like to start with safety, our number one priority. We delivered strong safety performance in the first quarter with a recordable case rate of 1.02 per million hours worked. Despite this strong achievement, our safety journey is never complete, and we will remain focused on this critical priority every day, including achieving our safety target to reduce our recordable case rate to 1.5 this year.

謝謝你，傑森。大家早安，下午好，感謝大家對 Constellium 的關注。讓我們從第 5 張投影片開始討論第一季業績的亮點。首先我想說一下安全，這是我們的首要任務。我們在第一季實現了出色的安全業績，可記錄事故率為每百萬工作小時 1.02 起。儘管取得了這一重大成就，但我們的安全之旅仍未結束，我們將繼續每天關注這一關鍵優先事項，包括實現我們的安全目標，將今年的可記錄案件率降低至 1.5。

Turning to our financial results, shipments were 372,000 tons, or down 2% compared to the first quarter of 2024, due to higher shipments in P&ARP that were more than offset by lower shipments in A&T and AS&I. Revenue of $2 billion increased 5% compared to the first quarter of 2024, primarily due to higher metal prices partially offset by lower shipments. Remember, while our revenues are affected by changes in metal prices, we operate a pass-through business model which minimizes our exposure to metal price risk.

談到我們的財務業績，出貨量為 372,000 噸，與 2024 年第一季相比下降了 2%，這是由於 P&ARP 的出貨量增加，但被 A&T 和 AS&I 的出貨量下降所抵消。20 億美元的收入與 2024 年第一季相比增長了 5%，這主要是由於金屬價格上漲，但出貨量下降部分抵消了這一影響。請記住，雖然我們的收入受到金屬價格變化的影響，但我們採用的是直通業務模式，可以最大限度地降低我們面臨的金屬價格風險。

Our net income of $38 million in the quarter compares to net income of $22 million in the first quarter last year. Adjusted EBITDA was $186 million in the quarter, although this includes a positive non-cash impact from metal price lag of $46 million. If we exclude the impact of metal price lag, the real economic performance of the business reflects adjusted EBITDA of $140 million in the quarter, compared to the $160 million last year when the operating environment was comparatively more favorable.

本季我們的淨收入為 3,800 萬美元，而去年第一季的淨收入為 2,200 萬美元。本季調整後的 EBITDA 為 1.86 億美元，儘管其中包括 4,600 萬美元的金屬價格滯後帶來的正非現金影響。如果我們排除金屬價格滯後的影響，該業務的實際經濟表現反映本季調整後的 EBITDA 為 1.4 億美元，而去年營運環境相對有利時為 1.6 億美元。

The adjusted EBITDA of $140 million this quarter also includes a foreign exchange headwind of $4 million and a negative impact of the Valais of $10 million as a result of the flood last year. Regarding the Valais, as of today, the business has resumed normal operations, which is in line with our prior expectations.

本季調整後的 EBITDA 為 1.4 億美元，其中還包括 400 萬美元的外匯不利影響，以及去年瓦萊州洪水造成的 1000 萬美元的負面影響。關於瓦萊州，截至今天，業務已恢復正常運營，這符合我們先前的預期。

While this was a very serious incident that impacted our financial performance in the last three quarters, our operations in the Valais have emerged with a lower cost structure at run rate, and at this time we are happy to put it into our rear-view mirror. I want to thank one more time our entire team on the ground there for their efforts and incredible results through this very difficult time.

雖然這是一次非常嚴重的事件，影響了我們過去三個季度的財務業績，但我們在瓦萊州的營運已經出現了較低的成本結構，此時我們很高興將其放在後視鏡中。我想再次感謝我們整個實地團隊在這段非常困難的時期所做的努力和取得的令人難以置信的成果。

Moving now to free cash flow. Our free cash flow in the quarter was negative $3 million and in line with our expectations to start the year. We continue to expect to generate positive free cash flow this year of greater than $120 million. During the quarter, we returned $15 million to shareholders through the repurchase of 1.4 million shares.

現在轉向自由現金流。本季我們的自由現金流為負 300 萬美元，與我們年初的預期一致。我們預計今年的自由現金流仍將超過 1.2 億美元。本季度，我們透過回購 140 萬股股票向股東返還了 1,500 萬美元。

Our leverage at the end of the first quarter was 3.3 times, though we expect this to trend down by the end of the year. We delivered solid results this quarter, which was slightly ahead of our expectations, despite a very challenging environment, including demand weakness across most of our end markets outside of packaging.

我們第一季末的槓桿率為 3.3 倍，但我們預計到今年年底這一比例將下降。儘管面臨嚴峻的市場環境（包括包裝以外的大多數終端市場需求疲軟），本季我們仍取得了穩健的業績，略高於我們的預期。

We remain focused on strong cost control, free cash flow generation, and commercial and capital discipline. Overall, I am quite happy with our first quarter performance. Please now turn to slide 6. Before turning the call over to Jack, I wanted to give a quick update on the Section 232 tariffs, as well as other tariffs under IEEPA, and how we see the potential impact to Constellium.

我們仍然專注於強有力的成本控制、自由現金流產生以及商業和資本紀律。總體而言，我對我們第一季的表現非常滿意。現在請翻到第 6 張投影片。在將電話轉給傑克之前，我想先簡單介紹一下第 232 條關稅以及 IEEPA 下的其他關稅，以及我們如何看待這些關稅對 Constellium 的潛在影響。

Before going into details on the slide, let me summarize a bit. The tariff situation is a fluid and multifaceted situation. We see both some positive and negative impacts on our business, and at this stage we believe it presents us with various opportunities as well as some additional costs.

在介紹投影片細節之前，讓我先做一點總結。關稅情勢瞬息萬變，且具多面性。我們看到它對我們的業務既有正面的影響，也有負面的影響，現階段，我們認為它為我們帶來了各種機遇，也帶來了一些額外的成本。

The guidance we are giving today does include the direct impact from tariffs that we are able to estimate given what we know today, and it does include several mitigating factors we have identified to offset the impacts. It also includes our current assumptions on end market demand in the current environment. Our guidance assumes a relatively stable macro environment and it does not include potential impacts from additional tariffs.

我們今天給出的指導確實包括了我們根據目前所知能夠估計的關稅的直接影響，並且確實包括了我們已經確定的幾個可以抵消影響的緩解因素。它還包括我們對當前環境下終端市場需求的當前假設。我們的指導假設宏觀環境相對穩定，且不包括額外關稅的潛在影響。

Shifting to the details of the slide now. On the production side, we are mostly local-for-local in the regions we operate. Our Automotive structure of business in the US buys extrusion from Canada, including from our joint venture in Canada. These extrusions have become more expensive under Section 232 tariffs, which impacted the first quarter by over $1 million. The costs will continue to accumulate going forward, and we expect around $20 million for the rest of the year before mitigating items.

現在轉到幻燈片的細節。在生產方面，我們主要在經營區域內進行在地化生產。我們在美國汽車業務結構從加拿大購買擠壓型材，包括從我們在加拿大的合資企業購買。根據第 232 條關稅，這些擠壓件的價格變得更加昂貴，對第一季造成了超過 100 萬美元的影響。成本將繼續累積，我們預計今年剩餘時間的成本約為 2000 萬美元，之後才會扣除緩解項目。

We are working with our customers on pass-throughs and have made good progress on a number of them. And we will continue to work on pass-throughs and other actions to mitigate the impact on our results. In aerospace, we ship small quantities from Europe to the US to serve global OEMs, although this has a pass-through today and will not be impacted.

我們正在與客戶就傳遞事宜展開合作，並在許多方面取得了良好進展。我們將繼續致力於傳遞和採取其他行動，以減輕對我們業績的影響。在航空航太領域，我們從歐洲向美國運送少量產品，為全球原始設備製造商提供服務，儘管目前這已經是一種轉口貿易，不會受到影響。

Regarding the automotive-specific tariffs that fall under Section 232, the volumes we ship across Mexican and Canadian borders are compliant with USMCA. On the metal supply side, we import some primary aluminum from Canada, given the lack of smelter capacity in the US. As of today, we have commercial agreements in place to help mitigate the tariff impact on this model.

關於第 232 條規定的汽車專用關稅，我們跨墨西哥和加拿大邊境運輸的貨物數量符合 USMCA 的規定。在金屬供應方面，由於美國冶煉能力不足，我們從加拿大進口一些原鋁。截至今天，我們已達成商業協議，以幫助減輕關稅對該模式的影響。

In terms of scrap, aluminum scrap is excluded from the current scope of Section 232 tariffs, and we purchase most of our scrap needs from dealers in the US. The impact on scrap from tariffs should be a net positive, as the rise in the US regional premium is beneficial for the domestic supply chain. We are starting to see this already as scrap spreads for used beverage cans in the US for instance, started to widen in the latter part of this first quarter.

在廢料方面，鋁廢料不屬於目前第 232 條關稅範圍，我們的大部分廢料需求都是從美國經銷商購買的。關稅對廢棄物的影響應該是淨正面的，因為美國地區溢價的上升有利於國內供應鏈。我們已經開始看到這種情況，例如，美國廢舊飲料罐的廢料價差在第一季後半段開始擴大。

In terms of commercial impacts, these two should be a net positive for Constellium. Today, around 1 million tons of flat roll aluminum imports are coming into the US. Tariffs will make domestically produced products more competitive, and we should benefit from this. As we mentioned last quarter, we announced a price increase for all flat roll products shipped in the US. And this is creating benefits for us on non-contracted volumes starting in the second quarter of this year.

從商業影響來看，這兩項措施對 Constellium 來說應該都是利多。如今，大約有 100 萬噸鋁捲進口到美國。關稅將使國內生產的產品更具競爭力，我們也應該從中受益。正如我們上個季度提到的，我們宣布提高所有運往美國的平卷產品的價格。從今年第二季開始，這將為我們在非合約交易量上創造效益。

In terms of end markets, the tariff and trade situation is creating broader macro uncertainty, and is having a negative impact on markets such as the automotive. Our guidance had already assumed weak conditions in automotive in both North America and Europe, and we are monitoring the conditions very closely. That said, we are not discounting the broader macro uncertainty.

在終端市場方面，關稅和貿易狀況正在造成更廣泛的宏觀不確定性，並對汽車等市場產生負面影響。我們的指導已經假設北美和歐洲的汽車產業狀況疲軟，我們正在密切監測這些狀況。儘管如此，我們並沒有忽視更廣泛的宏觀不確定性。

We have accelerated our cost reduction efforts under our Vision '25 program, and we are optimizing our existing capacity depending on market conditions, such as shifting some capacity where we can from automotive markets into packaging markets, for instance. To close out on tariffs, as I said before, the situation remains very fluid. We are continually monitoring and assessing the potential impact of current and future of trade policies, though at this stage, we believe the tariff on aluminum, [net] presents us with some opportunities in the current environment.

我們已按照「願景 25」計畫加快了成本削減力度，並根據市場狀況優化現有產能，例如將部分產能從汽車市場轉移到包裝市場。最後，正如我之前所說，關稅狀況仍然非常不穩定。我們正在持續監測和評估當前和未來貿易政策的潛在影響，不過在現階段，我們認為鋁關稅[淨額]為我們在當前環境下帶來了一些機會。

With that, I will now hand the call over to Jack for further details on our financial performance. Jack?

說完這些，我現在將電話交給傑克，以了解有關我們財務業績的更多詳細資訊。傑克？

Thank you, Jean-Marc, and thank you everyone for joining the call today. Please turn out to slide 8 and let's focus on our A&T segment performance. Adjusted EBITDA of $75 million decreased to 14% compared to the first quarter last year. Volume was a headwind of $20 million due to lower aerospace and TID shipments. Aerospace shipments were down 11% in the quarter versus last year as commercial OEMs continued to work through access inventory as a result of continued supply chain challenges.

謝謝你，Jean-Marc，也謝謝大家今天參加電話會議。請翻到第 8 張投影片，讓我們專注於 A&T 部門的表現。調整後的 EBITDA 為 7,500 萬美元，與去年第一季相比下降了 14%。由於航空航天和 TID 出貨量下降，交易量下降了 2000 萬美元。由於持續的供應鏈挑戰導致商業原始設備製造商繼續處理庫存，本季航空航太出貨量與去年同期相比下降了 11%。

Demand in business and regional jets, space and military aircraft remained healthy. TID shipments were down 7% compared to last year as commercial transportation and general industrial markets remained weak in the quarter. TID shipments were also impacted at Valais as a result of the flood from last year.

商務和支線飛機、航太和軍用飛機的需求仍然強勁。由於本季商業運輸和一般工業市場依然疲軟，TID 出貨量與去年相比下降了 7%。由於去年的洪水，瓦萊州的 TID 貨運也受到了影響。

Price and mix was a headwind of $16 million due to a softer pricing environment in TID and weaker overall mixing of quarter. Costs were a tailwind of $25 million primarily as a result of lower operating costs.

由於 TID 的定價環境較弱以及本季整體組合較弱，價格和組合面臨 1,600 萬美元的阻力。成本順勢下降了 2,500 萬美元，這主要由於營運成本降低。

Now turn to slide 9 and let's focus on our P&ARP segment performance. Adjusted EBITDA of $60 million increased 25% compared to the first quarter last year. Volume was a tailwind of $4 million as higher shipment in packaging were partially offset by lower shipment in automotive and specialties. Packaging shipments increased 9% in the quarter versus last year as demand remained healthy in both North America and Europe.

現在翻到投影片 9，讓我們注意一下 P&ARP 部門的表現。調整後的 EBITDA 為 6,000 萬美元，與去年第一季相比成長了 25%。由於包裝行業出貨量增加被汽車和特種行業出貨量減少部分抵消，因此銷量增加了 400 萬美元。由於北美和歐洲的需求保持強勁，本季包裝出貨量較去年同期成長了 9%。

In North America, we also benefited at Muscle Shoals from improved operational performance in the quarter of this year and the non-repeat of the weather event from last year. Automotive shipments decreased 15% in the quarter with weakness in both North America and Europe. Price and mix was a tailwind of $9 million mainly as a result of improved pricing in the quarter.

在北美，我們也受惠於 Muscle Shoals 今年季度營運表現的改善以及去年的天氣事件沒有重演。由於北美和歐洲市場表現疲軟，本季汽車出貨量下降了 15%。價格和產品組合帶來 900 萬美元的順風，主要由於本季價格上漲。

Costs were a tailwind of $2 million as a result of lower operating costs and more favorable metal costs in Neuf-Brisach, mostly offset by unfavorable metal cost in Muscle Shoals given tighter scrap spreads in North America. FX and other was a headwind of $3 million in the quarter.

由於營運成本降低以及 Neuf-Brisach 的金屬成本更為優惠，成本順風增長了 200 萬美元，但由於北美廢料價差縮小，Muscle Shoals 的金屬成本不利，這大部分抵消了這一影響。本季度，外匯和其他業務的逆風達到 300 萬美元。

Now turn to slide 10. Let's focus on the AS&I segment. Adjusted EBITDA of $16 million decreased 50% compared to the first quarter of last year. Volume was a $12 million headwind as a result of lower shipments in automotive and industry extruded products.

現在翻到第 10 張投影片。讓我們重點關注 AS&I 部分。調整後的 EBITDA 為 1,600 萬美元，與去年第一季相比下降了 50%。由於汽車和工業擠壓產品的出貨量下降，導致出口額遭受 1,200 萬美元的不利影響。

Automotive shipments were down 14% in the quarter with weakness in both North America and Europe. Industry shipments were down 4% in the quarter versus last year as weakness persisted in Europe. Industry shipments were also impacted at Valais as a result of the flood from last year.

由於北美和歐洲市場表現疲軟，本季汽車出貨量下降了 14%。由於歐洲市場持續疲軟，本季產業出貨量較去年同期下降 4%。由於去年的洪水，瓦萊州的工業貨運量也受到了影響。

Price and mix was a $2 million headwind in the quarter while costs were a headwind of $1 million. It is not on the slide here, but our holdings and corporate expense was $11 million in the quarter and within our expectation. Holdings and corporate expense this quarter was up $4 million from last year, mainly due to additional IT spending with the upgrade of our ERP system as we previously discussed and some minor one-off items.

本季度，價格和產品組合造成 200 萬美元的不利因素，而成本造成 100 萬美元的不利因素。這裡沒有出現下滑，但本季我們的持股和公司費用為 1,100 萬美元，符合我們的預期。本季控股和公司費用比去年增加了 400 萬美元，主要是因為我們之前討論過的 ERP 系統升級帶來的額外 IT 支出以及一些小的一次性項目。

As we said last quarter, we expect holdings and corporate expense to run at approximately $40 million in 2025. It is also not on the slide here, but I wanted to summarize the current cost environment we're facing. As you know, we operate a pass-through business model. So we're not materially exposed to changes in the market price of aluminum, our largest cost input.

正如我們上個季度所說，我們預計 2025 年的持股和公司費用將達到約 4,000 萬美元。這也不在這裡的幻燈片上，但我想總結一下我們目前面臨的成本環境。如您所知，我們採用的是直通式業務模式。因此，我們不會受到鋁（我們最大的成本投入）市場價格變化的重大影響。

Our other metal costs, we experienced a dramatic tightening of scrap spreads in North America in 2024, which continued as we started the year this year. Scrap spreads in the spot market did improve modestly by the end of the quarter, though our scrap needs through the first half of this year have been contracted at comparatively higher scrap spread levels. We expect scrap metal costs to remain a headwind for the remainder of the year relative to historical levels, though progressively to a lesser extent.

我們的其他金屬成本，我們在 2024 年經歷了北美廢料價差的大幅收緊，並且今年年初這種情況仍在繼續。儘管今年上半年我們的廢料需求已在相對較高的廢料價差水準上收縮，但到本季末，現貨市場的廢料價差確實略有改善。我們預計，與歷史水準相比，今年剩餘時間內廢金屬成本仍將是一個阻力，儘管阻力會逐漸減少。

For energy, our 2025 costs are moderately more favorable compared to 2024, although energy prices remain above historical averages. Other inflationary pressures have eased to more normal levels. And as we said last quarter, given the weakness we're seeing in several of our markets, we have accelerated our Vision '25 cost improvement program with measures such as improving operational efficiency, reducing headcounts and other labor costs, reducing non-metal procurement spending, optimizing maintenance costs by minimizing the use of outside contractors, and cost reduction efforts across many other categories.

對於能源而言，儘管能源價格仍高於歷史平均水平，但與 2024 年相比，我們 2025 年的成本略微有利。其他通膨壓力已緩解至更正常的水平。正如我們上個季度所說，鑑於我們在多個市場看到的疲軟，我們加快了「願景 25」成本改進計劃，採取的措施包括提高營運效率、減少員工數量和其他勞動力成本、減少非金屬採購支出、透過最大限度地減少使用外部承包商來優化維護成本，以及在許多其他類別中降低成本的努力。

We have demonstrated strong cost performance in the past years, and we're confident in our ability to right size our cost structure for the current demand environment. You see some of the benefits in our first quarter results and the run rate benefit should be even more.

我們在過去幾年中展現了強大的成本績效，並且我們有信心根據當前的需求環境調整我們的成本結構。您可以在我們的第一季業績中看到一些好處，並且運行率好處應該會更多。

Now, let's turn to slide 11 and discuss our free cash flow. Free cash flow was negative $3 million in the first quarter and in line with our expectations, though this includes a negative $27 million impact at Valais as the business continued to recover from the flood, including capital expenditures and the need to rebuild some working capital. This also excludes $2 million of cash we received from the collection of deferred purchase price receivables, which is a result of our conversion from IFRS to US GAAP and the corresponding accounting treatment of some of our factory arrangements.

現在，讓我們翻到第 11 張投影片來討論一下我們的自由現金流。第一季的自由現金流為負 300 萬美元，符合我們的預期，但其中包括瓦萊州因業務繼續從洪水中恢復而產生的 2700 萬美元的負影響，包括資本支出和重建部分營運資金的需要。這還不包括我們從收取遞延購買價應收款中獲得的 200 萬美元現金，這是我們從 IFRS 轉換為美國 GAAP 以及對部分工廠安排進行相應會計處理的結果。

As we mentioned last quarter, we amended these arrangements earlier this quarter, and all cash received under the arrangements since then are recorded in operating cash flows. Free cash flow excluding the impact of Valais and including the cash received for collection of deferred purchase price receivables would have been positive $26 million in the first quarter, which benefited from the actions we took in the latter part of last year to reduce working capital in this current demand environment.

正如我們上個季度提到的，我們在本季早些時候修改了這些安排，自那時起根據這些安排收到的所有現金都記錄在經營現金流中。在排除瓦萊州的影響並包括收取遞延購買價格應收款所收到的現金後，第一季的自由現金流應為正 2,600 萬美元，這得益於我們去年下半年在當前需求環境下採取的減少營運資本的行動。

Looking at 2025, we expect to generate free cash flow in excess of $120 million for the full year, which is unchanged from our prior guidance. Given the uncertainty with the overall environment, we're looking at modestly reducing our CapEx this year by about 5% to 10% to stay prudent and stay ahead. For the other cash flow items, we continue to expect them to be at around the same levels as per the previous guidance.

展望 2025 年，我們預計全年將產生超過 1.2 億美元的自由現金流，與我們先前預期的相同。鑑於整體環境的不確定性，我們考慮今年適度減少資本支出約 5% 至 10%，以保持謹慎並保持領先。對於其他現金流項目，我們繼續預計它們將與先前的指導保持大致相同的水平。

As Jean-Marc mentioned previously, we continued our share buyback activities in the quarter. During the quarter, we repurchased 1.4 million shares for $15 million. We have approximately $206 million remaining our existing share purchase program, and we intend to use a large portion of the free cash flow generated this year for the program.

正如 Jean-Marc 之前提到的，我們在本季繼續進行股票回購活動。本季度，我們以 1500 萬美元回購了 140 萬股。我們現有的股票購買計畫剩餘約 2.06 億美元，我們打算將今年產生的大部分自由現金流用於該計畫。

Now let's turn to slide 12 and discuss our balance sheet on liquidity position. At the end of the first quarter, our net debt of $1.8 billion was up $50 million compared to the end of 2024, with the largest driver being the translation impact from the weaker US dollar at the end of the quarter. Our leverage was 3.3 times at the end of the quarter or up 0.2 times versus the end of 2024. As Jean-Marc mentioned previously, we expect this to trend down by the end of the year.

現在讓我們翻到第 12 張投影片，討論一下我們的流動性狀況資產負債表。截至第一季末，我們的淨債務為 18 億美元，較 2024 年底增加了 5,000 萬美元，其中最大的驅動因素是本季末美元疲軟帶來的翻譯影響。本季末，我們的槓桿率為 3.3 倍，比 2024 年底上升了 0.2 倍。正如 Jean-Marc 先前所提到的，我們預計到今年年底這一趨勢將呈下降趨勢。

We're committed to bringing our leverage back down into our target leverage range of 1.5 to 2.5 times and maintaining this range over time. As you can see our debt summary, we have no bond maturities until 2028, and our liquidity increased by $73 million from the end of 2024 and remains strong at $800 million as of the end of the first quarter.

我們致力於將槓桿率降至 1.5 至 2.5 倍的目標槓桿範圍內，並長期維持此範圍。正如您在我們的債務摘要中所看到的，我們的債券到期日直到 2028 年，我們的流動性從 2024 年底增加了 7300 萬美元，截至第一季末仍保持在 8 億美元的強勁水平。

With that, I'll now hand the call back to Jean-Marc.

說完這些，我現在將電話交還給 Jean-Marc。

Thank you, Jack. Let's turn to slide 14 and discuss our current and market outlook. The majority of our portfolio today serving end markets benefiting from durable, sustainability-driven secular growth, in which aluminum, a light and infinitely recyclable material, plays a critical role. However, many of these markets continue to face demand headwinds today and are also now facing uncertainty given the tariff situation.

謝謝你，傑克。讓我們翻到第 14 張投影片，討論一下我們的當前狀況和市場前景。我們目前大部分的產品組合服務於終端市場，受益於持久、可持續發展驅動的長期成長，其中鋁這種輕質且可無限回收的材料發揮關鍵作用。然而，目前許多此類市場仍面臨需求逆風，而且由於關稅情況，它們也面臨不確定性。

Turning first to the aerospace market. Commercial aircraft backlogs are robust today and continue to grow. Major aero OEMs remain focused on increasing build rates for both narrow and wide body aircraft, though supply chain challenges continue to slow deliveries. As a result, aerospace supply chains need to adjust to lower than expected build rates, which is causing a shift in demand to the right for some of our products.

首先談談航空航太市場。目前商用飛機的訂單積壓情況十分強勁，且持續成長。儘管供應鏈挑戰繼續減緩交付速度，但主要航空原始設備製造商仍專注於提高窄體和寬體飛機的製造率。因此，航空航太供應鏈需要調整以適應低於預期的建造率，這導致我們的某些產品的需求向右移動。

Despite the slowdown in the near term, demand has stabilized for the most part, and we remain confident that the long-term fundamentals driving aerospace demand remain intact, including growing passenger traffic and greater demand for new, more fuel-efficient aircraft. Demand remains stable in the business and regional jet market and healthy for space and military aircraft.

儘管短期內經濟有所放緩，但需求已基本趨於穩定，我們仍然相信，推動航空航天需求的長期基本面依然完好，包括不斷增長的客運量以及對新型、更省油的飛機的需求增加。商務和支線噴射機市場的需求保持穩定，航太和軍用飛機市場的需求也保持健康。

Turning now to packaging. Demand remains healthy in both North America and Europe. The long-term outlook for this end market continues to be favorable, as evidenced by the growing consumer preference for the sustainable aluminum beverage can, capacity growth plans from can makers in both regions, and the greenfield investments ongoing here in North America. Longer term, we continue to expect packaging markets to grow low- to mid-single digits in both North America and Europe.

現在轉向包裝。北美和歐洲的需求依然強勁。消費者對可持續鋁製飲料罐的偏好日益增長、兩個地區罐頭製造商的產能增長計劃以及北美正在進行的綠地投資都證明了這一終端市場的長期前景仍然看好。從長遠來看，我們預計北美和歐洲的包裝市場仍將保持低至中等個位數成長。

Let's turn now to automotive. Automotive OEM production of light vehicles in Europe remains well below pre-COVID levels and is still below pre-COVID levels in North America as well. Demand in North America has continued to soften in the near term and is expected to feel the impact of the current Section 232 auto tariffs.

現在讓我們來談談汽車。歐洲輕型汽車的原始設備製造商產量仍遠低於新冠疫情之前的水平，北美的輕型汽車產量也仍低於新冠疫情之前的水平。北美的需求在短期內持續疲軟，預計將受到目前第 232 條汽車關稅的影響。

Demand in Europe remains weak, particularly in the luxury and premium vehicle and electric vehicle segments where we have greater exposure. Automotive production in Europe is also expected to feel the impact of the current Section 232 auto tariffs, given the amount of vehicles the US imports from Europe. In the long term, we believe electric and hybrid vehicles will continue to grow but at a lower rate than previously expected.

歐洲的需求仍然疲軟，特別是在我們涉足較多的豪華車和高檔車以及電動車領域。考慮到美國從歐洲進口的汽車數量，歐洲的汽車生產預計也將受到目前第 232 條汽車關稅的影響。從長遠來看，我們相信電動和混合動力車將繼續成長，但成長速度將低於先前的預期。

Sustainability trends such as light weighting and increased fuel efficiency, will continue to drive the demand for aluminum products. As a result, we remain positive on this market over the longer term in both regions, despite the weakness we are seeing today. As you can see on the page, these three core end markets represent over 80% of our last 12 months' revenue.

輕量化和提高燃油效率等永續發展趨勢將繼續推動對鋁產品的需求。因此，儘管我們目前看到市場疲軟，但從長期來看，我們仍然對這兩個地區的市場持樂觀態度。正如您在頁面上看到的，這三個核心終端市場占我們過去 12 個月收入的 80% 以上。

Turning lastly to other specialties. In North America, demand appears to have stabilized, albeit at low levels, and demand remains weak in Europe. We have experienced weakness across most specialty markets for more than two years now, though we are beginning to see some green shoots in certain TID markets in North America.

最後談談其他專業。在北美，需求似乎已經穩定下來，儘管水準較低，而歐洲的需求仍然疲軟。儘管我們開始看到北美某些 TID 市場出現一些復甦跡象，但兩年多來，大多數專業市場都經歷了疲軟。

We also believe TID markets in North America provide us with some opportunities today, given the current tariffs, make imports less competitive compared to domestic production. As a reminder, these specialties markets are typically dependent upon the health of the industrial economies in each region, including drivers like the interest rate environment, industrial production levels, and consumer spending patterns.

我們也認為，北美的 TID 市場目前為我們提供了一些機會，但考慮到目前的關稅，進口產品的競爭力不如國內產品。提醒一下，這些專業市場通常取決於每個地區工業經濟的健康狀況，包括利率環境、工業生產水準和消費者支出模式等驅動因素。

We continue to work hard to adjust our cost structure to a current demand environment, which will put the businesses in an even better position when the industrial economies do recover. To conclude on the end market, we like the fundamentals in each of the markets we serve, and we strongly believe that the diversification of our end markets is an asset for the company in any environment, and that the current conditions will pass.

我們將繼續努力根據當前的需求環境調整我們的成本結構，這將使企業在工業經濟復甦時處於更有利的地位。就終端市場而言，我們看好我們所服務的每個市場的基本面，我們堅信，無論在任何環境下，終端市場的多樣化對公司來說都是一筆資產，而且當前的狀況將會過去。

Turning lastly to slide 16, we detail our key messages and financial guidance. Our team delivered solid results in the first quarter this year, despite continued demand weakness across most of our end markets and the lingering financial impact of the Valais flood. We returned $15 million to shareholders in the quarter with the repurchase of 1.4 million shares.

最後翻到第 16 張投影片，我們詳細介紹了我們的關鍵資訊和財務指導。儘管我們大多數終端市場的需求持續疲軟，且瓦萊州洪災的財務影響持續存在，但我們的團隊在今年第一季仍取得了穩健的業績。本季我們回購了 140 萬股股票，向股東返還了 1,500 萬美元。

While tariffs are creating broader macro uncertainty and impacting end markets like automotive, we are proactively managing our business to the current environment. We remain focused on strong cost control, free cash flow generation, and commercial and capital discipline. Based on our current outlook, including the current end market conditions I just described, and assuming a relatively stable macro environment, we are maintaining our guidance for 2025.

儘管關稅正在造成更廣泛的宏觀不確定性並影響汽車等終端市場，但我們正在積極地管理我們的業務以適應當前環境。我們仍然專注於強有力的成本控制、自由現金流產生以及商業和資本紀律。根據我們目前的展望，包括我剛才描述的當前終端市場狀況，並假設宏觀環境相對穩定，我們維持對 2025 年的指導。

We are targeting adjusted EBITDA, excluding the non-cash impact of metal price lag in the range of $600 million to $630 million, and free cash flow in excess of $120 million. I also want to reiterate our long-term targets of adjusted EBITDA, excluding the non-cash impact of metal price lag of $900 million and free cash flow of $300 million in 2028.

我們的目標是調整後的 EBITDA（不包括金屬價格滯後的非現金影響）在 6 億至 6.3 億美元之間，自由現金流超過 1.2 億美元。我還想重申我們的長期目標，即調整後的 EBITDA（不包括金屬價格滯後造成的非現金影響）為 9 億美元，自由現金流為 2028 年的 3 億美元。

To conclude, while we continue to face challenging conditions in most of our markets today, we believe that this will pass. And I remain very excited about our future and the ability to see the many opportunities in front of us, which we have demonstrated in the past. We're extremely well positioned for long term success and remain focused on executing our strategy and shareholder value creation.

總而言之，儘管我們今天在大多數市場仍然面臨著挑戰​​性條件，但我們相信這一切都會過去。我對我們的未來以及看到我們面前的眾多機會的能力感到非常興奮，我們在過去已經證明了這一點。我們已為長期成功做好了充分準備，並將繼續專注於執行我們的策略和創造股東價值。

With that, Adam, we will now open the Q&A session, please.

亞當，我們現在開始問答環節。

(Operator Instructions) Katja Jancic, BMO Capital Markets.

（操作員指示）Katja Jancic，BMO 資本市場。

Hi, thank you for taking my questions. Maybe starting off, Jean-Marc, you mentioned the first quarter was ahead of expectations. Can you talk a bit more about what drove that?

你好，謝謝你回答我的問題。也許首先，Jean-Marc，您提到第一季超出了預期。您能否進一步談談導致這現象的原因？

Yes, good morning, Katja. Thanks for the question. So I think we have seen a good performance at our Muscle Shoals plant, and we continue to make progress. So that has helped in the first quarter. Definitely. The other big element I would single out is our progress on Vision '25.

是的，早上好，卡佳。謝謝你的提問。所以我認為我們的 Muscle Shoals 工廠表現良好，並且我們將繼續取得進步。這對第一季有所幫助。確實。我要特別指出的另一個重要因素是我們在「25年願景」上取得的進展。

As we mentioned, we accelerated in -- in the start of last year, given the very challenging year we experienced last year, we accelerated our cost reduction program and the operating efficiencies program. And Vision '25 is shaping out to be a big success for us this year. So these two elements, I think, are the main drivers of our performance, and Jack wants to add a couple of comments here.

正如我們所提到的，考慮到去年經歷的極具挑戰性的一年，我們在去年年初加速了成本削減計劃和營運效率計劃。今年，「願景 25」將為我們帶來巨大的成功。因此，我認為這兩個因素是我們業績的主要驅動力，傑克想在這裡補充幾點評論。

Yes, thank you, Jean-Marc. And thank you, Katja, for the question. So the only other thing I will add is, we have done a bit better in the A&T business unit. And if you recall, we talked about this last year, the weakness in the demand in aerospace has caused us to push some of the higher margin volumes to the right.

是的，謝謝你，讓-馬克。感謝 Katja 提出這個問題。因此，我要補充的另一件事是，我們在 A&T 業務部門的表現要好一些。如果你還記得的話，我們去年討論過這個問題，航空航天需求的疲軟導致我們將一些利潤率較高的業務推向了右邊。

And we said that that's not going away, it's just the timing. And now we're seeing some of the benefits, and we expect to see that during -- throughout the rest of the year. And also the business unit has done along with everybody else has done a great job in terms of cost control as Jean- Marc mentioned.

我們說這不會消失，只是時機問題而已。現在我們看到了一些好處，我們預計在今年剩餘時間內也能看到這些好處。而且正如 Jean-Marc 所提到的，該業務部門和其他所有人一樣，在成本控制方面做得很好。

But maybe just as a follow up. Jack, you said on the aerospace side, does that mean that the inventory issue is behind?

但也許只是作為後續行動。傑克，您說的是航空航天方面，這是否意味著庫存問題已經過去了？

No, it's not behind. I mean, our own inventories are well in control, but the supply chain is still struggling to ramp up. You also saw the news that the Boeing deliveries in China are suspended or halted. I don't know exactly how to describe it, so that's not a good news for the supply chain. So I think we are going to go through another year of difficulties in the ramp up of the supply chain. And that is including --

不，它不在後面。我的意思是，我們自己的庫存控制得很好，但供應鏈仍在努力改善。大家也看到了波音公司暫停或停止向中國交付飛機的消息。我不知道該如何確切地描述它，所以這對供應鏈來說不是一個好消息。因此我認為我們將在供應鏈提升過程中再經歷一年的困難。其中包括--

Okay. Thank you. I'll go back into the queue.

好的。謝謝。我將回到隊列中。

Corinne Blanchard, Deutsche Bank.

科琳‧布蘭查德，德意志銀行。

Hey, good morning, everyone. Congratulations on the strong quarter. Maybe to come back on the end market question, could you share -- so the aerospace was probably stronger than most people expected for 1Q, and probably with a mix of defense and military. Is that trend to be expected to continue into 2Q and 3Q? And then the second question would be on the auto impact in tariff and kind of where do you think things will shape and shake out for the second half of the year?

嘿，大家早安。恭喜本季業績強勁。也許回到最終市場問題，您能否分享一下——航空航天業可能比大多數人對第一季的預期更強勁，並可能混合了國防和軍事。這一趨勢預計會持續到第二季​​和第三季嗎？第二個問題是關稅對汽車的影響，您認為今年下半年的情況將如何發展與改變？

Good morning, Corinne, and thanks for your kind words. So aerospace, we think it's going to be choppy, continue to be choppy this year, but we do believe that the progress we've made is sustainable. And we do believe that our focus on high value-added products and those markets that are shining a bit more is paying off, and we expect that to continue throughout the year. Exactly how it plays out by quarter is difficult to tell, but I think we've got a good outlook for the full year.

早安，科琳，謝謝你的好意。因此，我們認為航空航太業今年將會很不穩定，並且會繼續不穩定，但我們確實相信我們所取得的進展是可持續的。我們確實相信，我們對高附加價值產品和那些更耀眼的市場的關注正在獲得回報，我們預計這種勢頭將持續全年。具體每季的表現如何還很難說，但我認為我們對全年的前景看好。

And in terms of auto, it is a big mystery. We are seeing the reduction in the outlook; S&P recently downgraded their provisions for the market numbers for both Europe and the US. We had been conservative. We thought going into the year and embedded into our guidance compared to the forecasts at the time.

而對於汽車而言，這是一個很大的謎。我們看到前景正在下降；標準普爾最近下調了對歐洲和美國市場數據的準備金。我們一直很保守。我們考慮進入新的一年，並將其與當時的預測進行比較，融入我們的指導中。

So we're seeing the forecast converging with our own expectations. And we believe that the tariffs are suddenly creating more uncertainty here in North America. But overall, given the platforms we're on, the launches that we're on, we believe -- absent a major catastrophe in the market, thanking to another 20% down compared to our current expectations, I think we are reasonably safe for this year.

因此我們看到預測與我們自己的預期相吻合。我們認為，關稅突然為北美帶來了更多不確定性。但總體而言，考慮到我們所處的平台和所推出的產品，我們相信——如果市場不發生重大災難，再加上與我們目前的預期相比又下降了 20%，我認為今年我們是相當安全的。

It's not going to be a pleasant year, as we can see, and especially in the AS&I segment. But I think we are controlling what we can control, and our guidance is reflecting this.

正如我們所見，這不會是愉快的一年，尤其是在 AS&I 領域。但我認為我們正在控制我們能夠控制的事情，我們的指導也反映了這一點。

Thank you. And then maybe just again on the auto and tariffs. And then, from the tariffs, how much cost impact you will get? Because I think I saw on one of your slide you had about $2 million impact in 1Q, and then from the rest of the year we can expect another $20 million. So is there like a specific cadence we should be thinking about between the quarter or is that more like a even cost to add?

謝謝。然後也許再談汽車和關稅問題。那麼，關稅會對成本產生多大影響呢？因為我認為我在你的一張投影片上看到，你在第一季產生了大約 200 萬美元的影響，然後我們預計今年剩餘時間還會產生 2000 萬美元的影響。那麼，我們是否應該考慮在季度之間採用特定的節奏，或者這更像是增加均勻的成本？

Yeah. Corinne, so it's related to the cross-border shipments, right? So -- and there is a little bit of seasonality, but assume it to be fairly even. And you're right, the gross impact before mitigation, we're assuming about $20 million headwind.

是的。科琳，這與跨國運輸有關，對嗎？所以 — — 雖然有一點季節性，但假設它是相當均勻的。您說得對，我們估計緩解之前的總影響約為 2000 萬美元。

Bill Peterson, J.P. Morgan.

摩根大通的比爾彼得森。

Hi, good morning, Jack and Jean-Marc. I appreciate the opportunity to ask questions. So maybe following up on the tariff one. So I think the last quarter you talked about the overall environment presenting opportunities for the team, and now you're talking about opportunities and costs. So I'm reading this as somewhat net neutral overall but maybe unpacking this a bit further.

嗨，早上好，傑克和讓-馬克。我很感謝有這個提問的機會。因此也許會跟進關稅問題。所以我認為上個季度您談到了為團隊提供機會的整體環境，現在您談到了機會和成本。因此，我認為總體而言這是網路中立的，但可能需要進一步解釋。

So you have special -- the February price hikes, maybe you can elaborate on what percentage of the business, I think it's mostly flat rolled as you mentioned, then you can -- what to expect to uplift the EBITDA? Maybe a little more detail on how you can maybe limit the impacts of this Canadian extruding business. And just trying to get a sense for -- maybe a little bit more detail in the presentation, maybe how to think about it from an overall perspective as you see it today realizing it's a fluid situation.

因此，您有特殊的——二月的價格上漲，也許您可以詳細說明業務的百分比，我認為它基本上是平穩的，正如您提到的，然後您可以——預計什麼會提升 EBITDA？也許您可以更詳細地說明如何限制加拿大擠壓業務的影響。只是想了解一下——也許在演示中需要更詳細一點，也許應該從今天看到的整體角度來思考這個問題，並意識到這是一個不穩定的情況。

Good morning, Bill, and thank you for this difficult question. So I think compared to what we're describing in February, we're still in the same place, that we believe overall the tariffs that we're seeing are presenting a net opportunity for us. We wanted this time to give you a bit more context about specifically the extrusions that we are importing from Canada to make auto parts in the US.

早安，比爾，謝謝你提出這個難題。因此，我認為與我們 2 月描述的情況相比，我們仍然處於同一位置，我們相信總體而言，我們所看到的關稅為我們帶來了淨機會。這次，我們想向您詳細介紹一下我們從加拿大進口、用於在美國生產汽車零件的擠壓材。

And that is a flow that presents a substantial headwind to us with $20 million worth of costs -- additional costs to us. Now to mitigate this, before I go into the other positive benefits of the of the tariffs, right, to mitigate this, we are working very hard with our customers and pass throughs. Ultimately those tariffs will end up being reflected in the sticker price.

這對我們來說是一個很大的阻力，它給我們帶來了 2000 萬美元的成本——額外的成本。現在，為了緩解這種情況，在我討論關稅的其他積極好處之前，為了緩解這種情況，我們正在與客戶和直通車一起努力。最終這些關稅將反映在標價上。

And we have some encouraging discussions, and we even have one customer at this stage that has agreed to a full pass-through for these tariffs. So that $20 million will dwindle as we are successful in passing through, we hope all of it, most of it, and at the very least some of it. At the same time we are going to look at the resourcing from other sources that are not tariff impacted.

我們進行了一些令人鼓舞的討論，目前我們甚至有一位客戶同意完全轉嫁這些關稅。因此，隨著我們成功通過，這 2000 萬美元將會減少，我們希望全部、大部分，至少是其中的一部分能夠減少。同時，我們將考慮從不受關稅影響的其他來源取得資源。

And then obviously working very diligently on our cost structure on other pockets of our cost structure to offset this. Then on the metal side, as you know, the scrap that we're using, the absolute benefit we get from using scrap is getting bigger with the imposition on 232 tariffs on aluminum. So that creates an opportunity for us and to the extent that our plants are running well, which they are, if we recycle more metal, we even compound this benefit by, you know, we get access to cheaper scrap related to prime. And we make more of it.

然後，我們顯然會非常努力地改進我們的成本結構，並在成本結構的其他部分抵消這種影響。然後在金屬方面，如你所知，隨著對鋁徵收 232 關稅，我們使用的廢料，從使用廢料中獲得的絕對利益越來越大。因此，這為我們創造了一個機會，並且在我們的工廠運作良好的範圍內，如果我們回收更多的金屬，我們甚至可以透過獲得與優質金屬相關的更便宜的廢料來增加這一好處。我們做得更多。

So that's an important [offset] to our cost side. And then finally, when the whole point of tariffs is to make the domestic industry more competitive, and as we have said numerous times, we are local-for-local. Even we -- and as we do that, we become more competitive and there is more opportunity for us to expand our markets.

所以這對我們的成本方面來說是一個重要的[抵消]。最後，關稅的全部目的是提高國內產業的競爭力，正如我們多次所說的，我們是本地企業服務本地企業的。即使我們——當我們這樣做時，我們也會變得更具競爭力，我們有更多機會擴大我們的市場。

Now, in addition, then one can say, well, but then what happens if there is a substantial reduction in demand for the end product. Because tariffs have made the products more expensive. And that's especially true for automotive where we talk about what happens if the price of cars goes up by 25%.

現在，此外，人們可能會說，但是如果最終產品的需求大幅減少，會發生什麼事？因為關稅使得產品變得更昂貴。對於汽車行業來說尤其如此，我們討論的是如果汽車價格上漲 25% 會發生什麼。

Now, in that case, something that is important to understand is that in our case, Constellium, the vast majority of what we sell is made in the US and delivered to plants that are making cars in the US. And as a consequence, if the global -- if the total market for cars goes down, it is fair -- because of tariffs, it is fair to say that the domestic production will be less impacted and hopefully could even benefit from it.

現在，在這種情況下，需要了解的重要一點是，就我們 Constellium 而言，我們銷售的絕大多數產品都是在美國製造的，並運送到美國生產汽車的工廠。因此，如果全球汽車市場整體因關稅而下滑，那麼可以說國內生產受到的影響較小，甚至有望從中受益。

And that's why it becomes very difficult to ascertain what the indirect, two or three sequences down the road are for us. But we believe we're in a decent position to offset the direct impact of the tariff, benefit on scrap, and margin expansion for our production here in the US. And potentially, given our customer mix, we may be less exposed than the overall market.

這就是為什麼我們很難確定接下來的兩三個間接序列是什麼。但我們相信，我們有能力抵銷關稅的直接影響、廢棄物收益以及我們在美國生產的利潤擴大。而且考慮到我們的客戶結構，我們受到的影響可能比整體市場小。

Thanks for that. Maybe I can hit on one of the points you're talking about on scrap because I think you know we exited last year and you're talking about maybe a $15 million to $20 million per quarter impact. But I think it's relatively tight exiting last year, maybe if you think about UBC to the Midwest transaction price, maybe close to 80% exit rate.

謝謝。也許我可以談談您談到的關於廢料的一點，因為我想您知道我們去年退出了，而您談到的可能是每季 1500 萬至 2000 萬美元的影響。但我認為去年的退出率相對較高，如果考慮 UBC 到中西部的交易價格，退出率可能接近 80%。

But I think we're now closer to 70%, which I think was somewhere around this time last year. So I guess with that in mind, how should we think about -- well, first of all, do you have any updated thoughts on how we should think about scrap scrubs for this year? And then assuming it stays a bit wider like we're seeing now, what would be the maybe the impact I presume it would be the low end of the $15 million to 20 million or maybe even below that.

但我認為我們現在接近 70%，我想這個數字大約是去年這個時候。所以我想考慮到這一點，我們應該如何思考——嗯，首先，您對我們應該如何看待今年的廢料清理有什麼最新的想法嗎？然後假設它像我們現在看到的那樣保持更寬一點，那麼可能的影響是什麼呢？我推測它的影響會在 1500 萬美元到 2000 萬美元的低端，甚至可能更低。

So think of the fact that we buy our scrap under annual, quarterly, and spot market. So we never reflect the spot price. You will never see a direct impact between spot price and our scrap results, right? So number one, so we smooth the peaks in Valais.

所以想想我們是在年度、季度和現貨市場購買廢料的事實。所以我們從來不反映現貨價格。您永遠不會看到現貨價格和我們的廢料結果之間的直接影響，對嗎？所以，首先，我們要平滑瓦萊州的山峰。

And what happened last year is we still benefited from aluminum. We had contracted scrap, we had contracted at a very good spreads in '23, in '24. But the new scrap we are contracting was extremely expensive. Now, this year we're seeing a reversal in the dynamics. Scraps are becoming cheaper, but we also have some scrap that we bought at a higher price and especially in the first quarter. So I think some of that mechanics, I don't want to go into too much detail. But what we're saying is that the scrap spreads today are better, and this is helping us. This is a positive for us, but it is included in our guidebooks.

去年的情況是，我們仍然受益於鋁。我們已經簽訂了廢料合同，我們在 23 年和 24 年以非常好的價差簽訂了合約。但我們承包的新廢料極為昂貴。現在，今年我們看到了動態的逆轉。廢料正在變得越來越便宜，但我們也有一些以更高價格購買的廢料，尤其是在第一季。所以我認為對於其中的一些機制，我不想討論太多細節。但我們要說的是，今天的廢料價差更好了，這對我們有幫助。這對我們來說是件好事，但它已包含在我們的指南中。

Okay, that's helpful. And then if I can switch to the packaging, I guess the P&ARP segment more broadly, you call out the improved shipments and mix and so forth and you calling out Muscle Shoals improvement in particular. I guess on the price and mix, can you [help] understand the uplift? I thought that maybe [ATS] EBITDA margins were actually better than packaging, or maybe the mix is more of a statement, especially I'm not sure.

好的，這很有幫助。然後，如果我可以切換到包裝，我想更廣泛地講，P＆ARP 部分，您會注意到改進的裝運和混合等等，特別是 Muscle Shoals 的改進。我想，就價格和組合而言，您能[幫助]了解一下漲幅嗎？我認為 [ATS] EBITDA 利潤率實際上可能比包裝更好，或者也許組合更能說明問題，尤其是我不確定。

And then on the Muscle Shoals performance, I guess how should we think about the shipment uplift and cost performance in the second quarter and beyond now that it seems to be operating well, so I think you're able to participate in this sort of improved demand environment. Maybe perhaps also benefiting for fewer imports as a result of tariffs as well.

然後關於 Muscle Shoals 的表現，我想我們應該如何看待第二季及以後的出貨量成長和成本表現，因為現在它似乎運作良好，所以我認為您能夠參與這種改善的需求環境。或許關稅也會減少進口量。

Yes, Bill. So I'll take the first part of your question, and that's related to price and mix for P&ARP and the [guide] there. That's mostly related to micro mix within packaging. So we saw more end stock if you will, which carry a higher pricing.

是的，比爾。所以我來回答你問題的第一部分，這與 P&ARP 的價格和組合以及那裡的[指南]有關。這主要與包裝內的微混合有關。因此，如果您願意的話，我們看到了更多的最終庫存，其價格更高。

Now, at the same time, automotive does have a higher margin, and automotive is not as good this year as it was last year. So you got all kinds of effects here. Going forward, we think the weakness in automotive is going to continue. I mean, that's part of our expectations, let's put it this way. But that does create an opportunity for us to sell more can sheet.

現在，與此同時，汽車行業的利潤率確實更高，而且今年汽車行業的狀況不如去年。所以你在這裡得到了各種各樣的效果。展望未來，我們認為汽車產業的疲軟態勢將會持續。我的意思是，這是我們期望的一部分，就這麼說吧。但這確實為我們銷售更多罐片創造了機會。

There is demand for more can sheet, and we are very keen to support our customers in any way we can. I think that opportunity will continue to be here. As I said, we turned the corner in Muscle Shoals, production is much better and healthier and more stable than it ever was. And I think that creates opportunities for us going forward.

對罐板的需求量很大，我們非常希望盡我們所能為客戶提供支援。我認為這個機會將會繼續存在。正如我所說，我們在馬斯爾肖爾斯度過了難關，生產比以往任何時候都更好、更健康、更穩定。我認為這為我們未來的發展創造了機會。

Thanks, Jean-Marc and Jack.

謝謝，Jean-Marc 和 Jack。

Thank you, Bill.

謝謝你，比爾。

Thank you, Bill.

謝謝你，比爾。

Josh Sullivan, Benchmark Company.

喬許·沙利文 (Josh Sullivan)，Benchmark 公司。

Hey, good morning.

嘿，早安。

Good morning, Josh.

早安，喬希。

If you're thinking about another year of aerospace supply chain difficulties, what was the incremental on that destock cycle from last quarter? If you're thinking about a year from today, where were your thoughts last quarter, just trying to think of the incremental sequentially on that year timeline.

如果您考慮航空航太供應鏈將再面臨一年的困境，那麼與上個季度相比，去庫存週期的增量是多少？如果您正在考慮從今天起的一年，那麼上個季度您的想法是什麼，只是嘗試按該年時間線順序考慮增量。

So I'll try to answer what I understand of your question, if not understanding it well, just tell me. We were thinking that it was going to be a yet another year of challenges in the supply chain on the basis of our discussion with our customers.

因此，我會盡力回答我所理解的您的問題，如果理解得不太清楚，請告訴我。根據我們與客戶的討論，我們認為這將是供應鏈又一個充滿挑戰的一年。

So things have not fundamentally changed because between what we're thinking in November, December of last year and now, maybe the exact shape of it is proving to be a bit different, but the challenges are definitely there. And you see it, I mean our shipments are down year-on-year compared to the first quarter of last year in aerospace, but that is what we are expecting.

所以事情並沒有根本性的改變，因為從我們去年 11 月、12 月的想法到現在，事情的具體形式可能有所不同，但挑戰肯定存在。你們看到了，我的意思是，與去年第一季相比，我們的航空航太出貨量比去年同期有所下降，但這是我們預料之中的。

And sequentially, I mean it's relatively flat to the fourth quarter of last year, and the third quarter of last year. So it's weak but quite stable with a better mix.

與去年第四季和第三季相比，環比持平。因此，它雖然較弱，但透過更好的混合卻相當穩定。

Okay. How would you be impacted if Airbus chooses to increase production at the --

好的。如果空中巴士選擇增加產量，你會受到什麼影響？--

Did we answer your question, Josh?

我們回答你的問題了嗎，喬希？

Yeah. No, I mean more or less, yes. But also if Airbus chooses to increase production at the Alabama facility, how would you be impacted by that?

是的。不，我的意思是或多或少，是的。但是，如果空中巴士選擇增加阿拉巴馬工廠的產量，您會受到什麼影響？

Well, we would get more volumes from them. We've got a -- our contract with them is requirements driven. So the more they produce, the better it is for us. Now how that happens depends on whether the inventor is in the supply chain and where it's at. And as you know, there's a lag between six months to two years roughly depending on the part. But this is -- this would be a net positive for us, yes.

好吧，我們會從他們那裡得到更多的數量。我們與他們的合約是需求驅動的。因此，他們生產的越多，對我們來說就越有利。現在，如何實現這一點取決於發明者是否在供應鏈中以及供應鏈位於何處。如您所知，根據零件的不同，滯後時間約為六個月到兩年。但這對我們來說是有利的，是的。

Okay. And then just one last one. What are you seeing as far as European demand and TID for defense applications or indications for longer term order flow, just as the continent looks to build out, more of an internal defense industrial base?

好的。最後再說一句。就歐洲大陸尋求建立更多的內部國防工業基礎而言，您如何看待國防應用的需求和 TID 或長期訂單流的跡象？

Yes. So we see some good signs today. It's actually causing us to increase our inventories in the Valais, for instance, as we are restarting our operations because there's a lot of demand for tanks and other vehicles. And then longer term, I think it's all a matter of how serious and committed the Europeans will be in implementing what they decided, which is, I think it's EUR800 billion of additional spending in defense, right?

是的。所以我們今天看到了一些好跡象。例如，由於坦克和其他車輛的需求量很大，我們正在重新開始運營，這實際上導致我們增加了在瓦萊州的庫存。從長遠來看，我認為這完全取決於歐洲人對執行其決定的認真程度和決心，我認為他們的決定是增加 8,000 億歐元的國防支出，對嗎？

So if they do that, that's definitely a good thing for us. But as we all know between intentions and reality, there can be a gap, and the gap can be just time, or it can be a gap in terms of actually does it get implemented. So we'll have to see better. In all the discussions we have with our customers in defense air space in Europe, there is -- everybody is ramping up and trying to get ready for substantially higher levels of production and so are we.

所以如果他們這樣做，對我們來說絕對是一件好事。但眾所周知，意圖和現實之間可能會有差距，這個差距可能只是時間上的，也可能是實際實施上的差距。所以我們必須看得更清楚。在我們與歐洲國防空域客戶進行的所有討論中，每個人都在加緊努力，為大幅提高生產水準做好準備，我們也是如此。

Great. Thank you for your time.

偉大的。感謝您抽出時間。

Thank you, Josh.

謝謝你，喬希。

As we have no further questions, I'll hand back to Jean-Marc Germain for some closing comments.

由於我們沒有其他問題，我將把話題交還給 Jean-Marc Germain，請他發表一些結束語。

Thank you, Adam. Well, thank you everybody for your participation today. As you can see, we remain very focused in these uncertain and turbulent times, very focused on controlling what we can control, making sure we seize every opportunity that is ahead of us. And making sure we build a company that's going to emerge stronger, after these vicissitudes in the markets pass. Thank you very much, and I look forward to updating you on our progress in a few months.

謝謝你，亞當。好的，謝謝大家今天的參與。正如你所看到的，在這個充滿不確定性和動盪的時期，我們仍然高度集中精力，高度集中精力控制我們能夠控制的事情，確保抓住擺在我們面前的每一個機會。並確保我們創建的公司在經歷了市場變遷之後能夠變得更加強大。非常感謝，我期待在幾個月後向您報告我們的進展。

This concludes today's call. Thank you very much for your attendance. You may now disconnect your lines.

今天的電話會議到此結束。非常感謝您的出席。現在您可以斷開線路了。