Constellium SE (CSTM) 2024 Q4 法說會逐字稿

Hello, and welcome to the Constellium fourth quarter and full year 2024 results conference call. My name is Alex, I'll be coordinating the call today. (Operator Instructions). I'll now hand it over to your host, Jason Hershiser, Director of Investor Relations. Please go ahead.

您好，歡迎您參加 Constellium 2024 年第四季和全年業績電話會議。我叫亞歷克斯，今天我將負責協調這場電話會議。（操作員指令）。現在我會把時間交給主持人、投資人關係總監 Jason Hershiser。請繼續。

Thank you, Alex. I'd like to welcome everyone to our fourth quarter and full year 2024 earnings call. On the call today with our Chief Executive Officer, Jean-Marc Germain; and our Chief Financial Officer, Jack Guo. After the presentation, we will have a Q&A session.

謝謝你，亞歷克斯。歡迎大家參加我們的 2024 年第四季和全年財報電話會議。今天與我們的執行長 Jean-Marc Germain 進行電話會議；以及我們的財務長 Jack Guo。演講結束後，我們將進行問答環節。

As a reminder, and as we previously announced, we are now reporting in US dollars and under US GAAP, starting with our fourth quarter and full year 2024 results today. A copy of the slide presentation for today's call is available on our website at constellium.com, and today's call is being recorded.

提醒一下，正如我們之前宣布的那樣，從今天的第四季度和 2024 年全年業績開始，我們將以美元和美國公認會計準則 (GAAP) 進行報告。今天電話會議的幻燈片簡報副本可在我們的網站 constellium.com 上找到，並且今天的電話會議正在錄製。

Before we begin, I'd like to encourage everyone to visit the company's website and take a look at our recent filings. Today's call may include forward-looking statements within the meaning of the Private Securities Litigation Reform Act of 1995. Such statements include statements regarding the company's anticipated financial and operating performance, future events and expectations and may involve known and unknown risks and uncertainties.

在我們開始之前，我想鼓勵大家訪問公司的網站並查看我們最近的文件。今天的電話會議可能包括《1995 年私人證券訴訟改革法案》所定義的前瞻性陳述。此類聲明包括有關公司預期財務和經營業績、未來事件和期望的聲明，可能涉及已知和未知的風險和不確定性。

For a summary of specific risk factors that could cause results to differ materially from those expressed in the forward-looking statements, please refer to the factors presented under the heading Risk Factors in our annual report on Form 20-M and in future filings under Form 10-K. All information in the presentation is as of the date of the presentation. We undertake no obligation to update or revise any forward-looking statements as a result of new information, future events or otherwise, except as required by law.

有關可能導致結果與前瞻性陳述中表達的結果有重大差異的具體風險因素的摘要，請參閱我們 20-M 表年度報告和 10-K 表未來文件中「風險因素」標題下列出的因素。簡報中的所有資訊均截至簡報發布之日。除非法律要求，我們不承擔因新資訊、未來事件或其他原因而更新或修改任何前瞻性聲明的義務。

In addition, today's presentation includes information regarding certain non-GAAP financial measures. Please see the reconciliations of non-GAAP financial measures attached in today's slide presentation, which supplements our GAAP disclosures.

此外，今天的演示還包括有關某些非公認會計準則財務指標的資訊。請參閱今天的幻燈片簡報中附帶的非 GAAP 財務指標對帳表，該對帳表補充了我們的 GAAP 揭露。

Before turning the call over to Jean-Marc, I wanted to remind everyone that beginning early last year, we revised the definition of adjusted EBITDA at the consolidated level based on our prior discussions with the SEC. The new definition will no longer exclude the noncash impact of metal price line.

在將電話轉給 Jean-Marc 之前，我想提醒大家，從去年年初開始，我們根據先前與美國證券交易委員會的討論，修改了合併層級調整後 EBITDA 的定義。新的定義將不再排除金屬價格線的非現金影響。

We will continue to provide investors and other stakeholders with a noncash metal price lag impact that is necessary to get a true assessment of the economic performance of the business. Our segment adjusted EBITDA will continue to exclude this impact and any guidance we provide for adjusted EBITDA will also exclude the impact.

我們將繼續向投資者和其他利害關係人提供非現金金屬價格滯後影響，這對於真實評估企業的經濟績效是必要的。我們分部的調整後 EBITDA 將繼續排除此影響，並且我們為調整後 EBITDA 提供的任何指引也將排除該影響。

And with that, I would now like to hand the call over to Jean-Marc.

現在，我想將發言權交給 Jean-Marc。

Thank you, Jason. Good morning, good afternoon, everyone, and thank you for your interest in Constellium. Let's begin on slide 5. I want to start with safety, our number 1 priority. Our recordable case rate for the year of 2.0 per million hours worked was slightly higher than the prior year, but I'm pleased to report that we continue to deliver best-in-class safety performance. We are committed to achieving our safety target to reduce our recordable case rate to 1.5.

謝謝你，傑森。大家早安，下午好，感謝大家對 Constellium 的關注。我們從第 5 張投影片開始。首先我想說的是安全，這是我們的首要任務。我們今年的可記錄事故率為每百萬工作小時 2.0 起，略高於前一年，但我很高興地報告，我們繼續提供一流的安全績效。我們致力於實現我們的安全目標，將可記錄案件率降低至 1.5。

Now let's turn to slide 6 and discuss the highlights from our fourth quarter performance. Treatments were 328,000 tons, down 2% compared to the fourth quarter of 2023, mainly due to lower shipments in A&T and AS&I. Revenue of $1.7 billion decreased 1% compared to the fourth quarter of 2023, primarily due to lower shipments and unfavorable price and mix partially offset by higher metal prices.

現在讓我們翻到第 6 張投影片，討論一下我們第四季業績的亮點。處理量為 328,000 噸，與 2023 年第四季相比下降 2%，主要原因是 A&T 和 AS&I 的出貨量下降。營收為 17 億美元，與 2023 年第四季相比下降了 1%，主要原因是出貨量下降以及價格和產品組合不利，但金屬價格上漲部分抵消了這一影響。

Remember, while our revenues are affected by changes in metal prices, we operate a pass-through business model, which minimizes our exposure to metal price risk. Our net loss of $47 million in the quarter compares to net income of $5 million in the fourth quarter of 2023.

請記住，雖然我們的收入受到金屬價格變化的影響，但我們採用的是直通業務模式，可以最大限度地降低我們面臨的金屬價格風險。本季我們的淨虧損為 4,700 萬美元，而 2023 年第四季的淨收入為 500 萬美元。

Adjusted EBITDA was $125 million in the quarter, though so this includes a negative impact at Valais of $15 million as a result of the flood. This also includes a positive noncash impact from metal price lag of $27 million. If we exclude the impact of the flood and the impact of metal price lag, as Jason mentioned earlier, the real economic performance of the business reflects adjusted EBITDA of $113 million in the quarter, compared to the $178 million we achieved in the fourth quarter of 2023.

本季調整後的 EBITDA 為 1.25 億美元，但這其中包括了洪水對瓦萊州造成的 1500 萬美元的負面影響。這也包括金屬價格滯後帶來的 2700 萬美元的正面非現金影響。如果我們排除洪水的影響和金屬價格滯後的影響，正如 Jason 先前所提到的，該業務的實際經濟表現反映本季調整後的 EBITDA 為 1.13 億美元，而我們在 2023 年第四季實現的 EBITDA 為 1.78 億美元。

Cash from operations was $61 million in the quarter, and I'm pleased to report that we continued our share buyback program. During the quarter, we returned $80 million to shareholders through the repurchase of 1.6 million shares.

本季經營現金流為 6,100 萬美元，我很高興地報告，我們繼續實施股票回購計畫。本季度，我們透過回購 160 萬股股票向股東返還了 8,000 萬美元。

Before turning to our full year performance, I wanted to give you a quick update on the flooding situation in the Valais. As of today, the business is on track to complete production ramp-up by the end of the first quarter this year, which is in line with our prior expectations. As we mentioned last quarter, we expect some cost impact in 2025 as production will continue to ramp up, and we expect to receive the remaining portion of the insurance proceeds in 2025 as well.

在介紹我們全年業績之前，我想先簡單介紹一下瓦萊州的洪水。截至目前，該業務預計在今年第一季末完成產量提升，這符合我們先前的預期。正如我們上個季度所提到的，隨著產量持續增加，我們預計 2025 年將產生一些成本影響，並且我們預計 2025 年還將收到剩餘部分的保險收益。

While the impact of the flood had a material impact on our business, I am pleased that the total damages from the event came in below our original insurance growth damage assessment and we will be able to put the event in the rearview mirror very soon.

雖然洪水對我們的業務造成了重大影響，但我很高興看到洪水造成的總損失低於我們最初的保險成長損失評估，我們很快就能將這一事件拋諸腦後。

Now turn to slide 7 for our full year highlights. For the full year, shipments were 1.4 million tons or down 4% compared to 2023. Revenue of $7.3 billion decreased 6% compared to 2023, primarily due to lower shipments and unfavorable price and mix, partially offset by higher metal prices. Our net income of $60 million compares to net income of $157 million in 2023.

現在請翻到第 7 張投影片來查看我們全年的亮點。全年出貨量為 140 萬噸，與 2023 年相比下降 4%。收入為 73 億美元，與 2023 年相比下降 6%，主要原因是出貨量下降以及價格和產品組合不利，但金屬價格上漲部分抵消了這一影響。我們的淨收入為 6,000 萬美元，而 2023 年的淨收入為 1.57 億美元。

Adjusted EBITDA was $623 million for the full year in 2024, though this includes a negative impact at Valais of $33 million as a result of the flood. This also includes a positive noncash impact from metal price lag of $55 million. Again, if we exclude the impact of the flood and the impact of metal price lag, the real economic performance of the business reflects adjusted EBITDA of $601 million for the year compared to the record $754 million we achieved in 2023.

2024 年全年調整後 EBITDA 為 6.23 億美元，但其中包括因洪水對瓦萊州造成的 3,300 萬美元的負面影響。這也包括金屬價格滯後帶來的 5500 萬美元的正面非現金影響。同樣，如果我們排除洪水的影響和金屬價格滯後的影響，該業務的實際經濟表現反映出今年的調整後 EBITDA 為 6.01 億美元，而 2023 年我們實現了創紀錄的 7.54 億美元。

Given the change in year-over-year performance during 2024, we accelerated our cost reduction efforts and took actions to reduce working capital to align to the current demand environment, which Jack and I will be discussing later on.

鑑於 2024 年同比業績的變化，我們加快了成本削減力度，並採取措施減少營運資金以適應當前的需求環境，我和傑克稍後將對此進行討論。

Moving now to free cash flow. Our free cash flow for the year was negative $100 million in 2024. If you exclude the impact of the Valais flood and include cash received for the collection of deferred purchase price receivables, free cash flow would have been positive $30 million in 2024, which Jack will cover in more detail.

現在轉向自由現金流。2024 年我們的年度自由現金流為負 1 億美元。如果排除瓦萊州洪水的影響，並包括收取遞延購買價應收款所收到的現金，那麼 2024 年的自由現金流將為正 3000 萬美元，傑克將對此進行更詳細的介紹。

Our leverage at the end of 2024 was 3.1x. If we exclude the Valais flood impact, leverage was 2.9x at the end of '24. Clearly, 2024 was a very challenging year for Constellium on many fronts. The year began with the extreme cold weather and snow impacting operations in January and we experienced severe flooding at our facilities in the Valais region in Switzerland during the summer.

2024 年底我們的槓桿率為 3.1 倍。如果我們排除瓦萊州洪水的影響，24 年底的槓桿率為 2.9 倍。顯然，2024 年對 Constellium 來說在許多方面都是極具挑戰性的一年。今年年初，一月份的極端寒冷天氣和降雪影響了公司的運營，夏季，我們位於瑞士瓦萊州的工廠遭遇了嚴重的洪災。

In addition, we faced market-driven headwinds starting in the second quarter last year and which became more pronounced in the second half, including demand weakness across most of our end markets and significant tightening of spreads in North America.

此外，我們從去年第二季開始面臨市場驅動的逆風，並且在下半年變得更加明顯，包括大多數終端市場的需求疲軟以及北美利差大幅收緊。

I want to thank each of our 12,000 employees for their commitment, resilience and relentless focus on serving our customers during these difficult times. On a more positive note, I'm pleased that we started up our new recycling and casting center in September, slightly ahead of schedule and below budget, and we returned $79 million to shareholders through the repurchase of 4.6 million shares of company stock during the year.

我要感謝我們 12,000 名員工中的每一位，感謝他們的奉獻、堅韌和在困難時期堅持不懈地為客戶提供服務。從積極的一面來看，我很高興我們在 9 月啟動了新的回收和鑄造中心，略微提前於計劃並低於預算，並且我們通過在這一年回購 460 萬股公司股票向股東返還了 7900 萬美元。

I'm also excited to begin reporting our results in US dollars under US GAAP today. And soon, we will file our first annual report on Form 10-K.

我也很高興今天開始按照美國公認會計準則以美元報告我們的業績。很快，我們將提交第一份 10-K 表格年度報告。

Now please turn to slide 8. Before turning the call over to Jack, I wanted to give a quick update on the latest Section 232 tariffs and how we see the potential impact to Constellium. Before going into details on the slide, let me summarize a bit. The tariff situation is a fluid and multifaceted situation. We see both some positive and negative impacts on our business. And at this stage, we believe it presents us with various opportunities.

現在請翻到第 8 張投影片。在將電話轉給傑克之前，我想先簡單介紹一下最新的第 232 條關稅以及我們如何看待其對 Constellium 的潛在影響。在介紹投影片細節之前，讓我先做一點總結。關稅情勢瞬息萬變，且具多面性。我們看到這對我們的業務既有正面的影響，也有負面的影響。而在這個階段，我們相信它為我們帶來了各種機會。

The guidance we are giving today does not include any impacts from tariffs. Shifting to the details on the slide now. On the production side, we are mostly local for local in the regions where we operate. We have a joint venture in Canada that provides extrusions to our automotive structures business in the US and these extrusions will become more expensive under Section 232 tariffs.

我們今天給予的指導不包括關稅的任何影響。現在轉到投影片上的細節。在生產方面，我們主要在經營所在地區進行在地化生產。我們在加拿大有一家合資企業，為我們在美國的汽車結構業務提供擠壓件，根據第 232 條關稅，這些擠壓件的價格將變得更加昂貴。

In Aerospace, we ship small quantities from Europe to the US to serve global OEMs, though this has a pass-through today, and it will not be impacted. On the metal supply side, we import some primary aluminum from Canada given the lack of smelter capacity in the US and some of these imports will become more expensive.

在航空航太領域，我們從歐洲向美國運送少量產品，為全球原始設備製造商提供服務，儘管目前這已經是一種轉口貿易，但不會受到影響。在金屬供應方面，由於美國缺乏冶煉能力，我們從加拿大進口一些原鋁，其中一些進口產品的價格將變得更加昂貴。

Commercial negotiations will be necessary to mitigate tariffs and there may be a lag in passing additional costs through. In terms of scrap now, aluminum scrap is excluded from the current scope of Section 232 tariffs. We purchased most of our scrap needs from dealers in the US The impact on scrap from tariffs could be a net positive as it could increase the availability of scrap in the US and scrap spreads could improve with a rise in the US regional premium for aluminum.

降低關稅需要透過商業談判，而轉嫁額外成本可能會出現滯後。目前就廢料而言，鋁廢料不在第232條款關稅的現行範圍內。我們的大部分廢料需求都是從美國經銷商購買的。關稅對廢料的影響可能是淨正面影響，因為它可以增加美國廢料的供應，並且隨著美國地區鋁溢價的上升，廢料價差可能會改善。

Now in terms of commercial impact, these two could be a net positive for Constellium. Today, around 1 million tons of flat-rolled aluminum imports are coming into the US. Tariffs will make domestically produced products more competitive, and we should benefit from this. As an example, earlier this week, we announced a price increase for all flat-rolled products shipped in the US.

現在，就商業影響而言，這兩件事對 Constellium 來說可能是個淨利多。如今，約有 100 萬噸鋁壓延進口到美國。關稅將使國內生產的產品更具競爭力，我們也應該從中受益。例如，本週早些時候，我們宣布提高所有運往美國的扁平軋製產品的價格。

We have some business in the US that is priced quarterly, and we should benefit as soon as the second quarter this year from the new market dynamics. The overall impact on our end markets is way too early to estimate and will depend on the overall health of the US economy, and it will also depend on the types of tariffs to be implemented in the future, including the originally announced [and in quotes] blanket tariffs on Canada and Mexico.

我們在美國有一些按季度定價的業務，我們應該最早在今年第二季度從新的市場動態中受益。目前還無法估計對我們終端市場的整體影響，這將取決於美國經濟的整體健康狀況，也取決於未來實施的關稅類型，包括最初宣布的[和引號中]對加拿大和墨西哥的全面關稅。

The same logic should apply in terms of impact on aluminum, though the overall impact of this is unknown. To close out on tariffs, as I said before, the situation remains very fluid. We are continually monitoring and assessing the potential impact of current and future trade policies, though at this stage, we believe it presents us with some opportunities.

同樣的邏輯也適用於對鋁的影響，儘管其整體影響尚不清楚。最後，正如我之前所說，關稅狀況仍然非常不穩定。我們正在持續監測和評估當前和未來貿易政策的潛在影響，儘管在現階段，我們認為它為我們帶來了一些機會。

With that, I will now hand the call over to Jack for further details on our financial performance. Jack?

說完這些，我現在將電話交給傑克，以了解有關我們財務業績的更多詳細資訊。傑克？

Thank you, Jean-Marc, and thank you, everyone, for joining the call today. Please turn now to slide 10, and let's focus on our A&T segment performance. Adjusted EBITDA of $56 million decreased 33% compared to the fourth quarter last year. Volume was a headwind of $3 million, mainly due to lower TID shipments as commercial, transportation and general industrial markets remained weak in the quarter.

謝謝 Jean-Marc，也謝謝大家今天參加電話會議。現在請翻到第 10 張投影片，讓我們專注在 A&T 部門的表現。調整後的 EBITDA 為 5,600 萬美元，與去年第四季相比下降了 33%。交易量遭遇 300 萬美元的逆風，主要由於本季商業、運輸和一般工業市場依然疲軟，導致 TID 出貨量下降。

TID shipments were also impacted at alley as a result of the flood. Shipments in aerospace were stable versus the same quarter last year and demand in military aircraft remains healthy. Price and mix was a headwind of $19 million due to a softer pricing environment in TID and weaker aerospace mix in the quarter.

由於洪水，TID 的貨運也受到了影響。與去年同期相比，航空航太業的出貨量保持穩定，軍用飛機的需求仍然強勁。由於本季 TID 定價環境較弱以及航空航太產品組合較弱，價格和產品組合面臨 1,900 萬美元的阻力。

During the fourth quarter, A&T had a negative impact of $5 million at Valais as a result of the flood. For the full year 2024, A&T generated adjusted EBITDA of $285 million, a decrease of 19% compared to a record 2023. The drivers of the full year performance were similar to those in the fourth quarter, except cost was a tailwind of $11 million for the full year, and the Valais impact was a headwind of $13 million.

第四季度，由於洪水，A&T 對瓦萊州造成了 500 萬美元的負面影響。2024 年全年，A&T 的調整後 EBITDA 為 2.85 億美元，與創紀錄的 2023 年相比下降了 19%。全年業績的驅動因素與第四季類似，但全年成本為 1,100 萬美元，而瓦萊州的影響為 1,300 萬美元。

Now turn to slide 11. Let's focus on our PARP segment performance. Adjusted EBITDA of $56 million decreased 34% compared to the fourth quarter last year. Volume was a tailwind of $1 million as higher shipments in packaging were mostly offset by lower shipment in automotive. Packaging shipments increased 4% in the quarter versus last year as demand remains healthy in both North America and Europe.

現在翻到第 11 張投影片。讓我們來注意一下 PARP 部分的表現。調整後的 EBITDA 為 5,600 萬美元，與去年第四季相比下降了 34%。由於包裝行業出貨量增加大部分被汽車業出貨量下降所抵消，因此銷量增加了 100 萬美元。由於北美和歐洲的需求依然強勁，本季包裝出貨量較去年同期成長了 4%。

Automotive shipments decreased 10% in the quarter with weakness in both North America and Europe. Price and mix was a headwind of $5 million mainly as a result of weaker mix in the quarter. Costs were a headwind of $24 million as a result of unfavorable metal costs given tighter scrap spreads in North America, partially offset by lower operating costs.

由於北美和歐洲市場表現疲軟，本季汽車出貨量下降了 10%。價格和產品組合面臨 500 萬美元的阻力，主要是由於本季產品組合較弱。由於北美廢料價差收窄導致金屬成本不利，造成 2,400 萬美元的成本逆風，但營運成本降低部分抵銷了這一影響。

As we said in the past, the negative impact of tighter scrap spreads in North America is $15 million to $20 million per quarter given the current market conditions. The fourth quarter of 2023 also benefited from energy-related grants in Europe, which did not repeat to the same degree in 2024.

正如我們過去所說，鑑於目前的市場狀況，北美廢料價差收緊的負面影響為每季 1500 萬至 2000 萬美元。2023 年第四季也受惠於歐洲能源相關的補助，但 2024 年並未重複同樣的程度。

For the full year 2024, Part generated adjusted EBITDA of $242 million, a decrease of 21% compared to 2023, but the drivers of the full year performance were similar to those in the fourth quarter.

2024 年全年，Part 的調整後 EBITDA 為 2.42 億美元，較 2023 年下降 21%，但全年業績的驅動因素與第四季度相似。

Now turn to slide 12, and let's focus on the AS&I segment. Adjusted EBITDA of $4 million decreased 83% compared to the fourth quarter of last year. Volume was a $7 million headwind as a result of lower shipments in automotive and industry extruded products.

現在翻到第 12 張投影片，讓我們專注於 AS&I 部分。調整後的 EBITDA 為 400 萬美元，與去年第四季相比下降了 83%。由於汽車和工業擠壓產品的出貨量下降，導致銷售量遭遇 700 萬美元的逆風。

Automotive shipments were down 12% in the quarter, with weakness in both North America and Europe. Industry shipments were down 17% in the quarter versus last year as weakness persisted in Europe. Industry shipments were also impacted at Valais as a result of the flood.

本季汽車出貨量下降 12%，北美和歐洲均表現疲軟。由於歐洲市場持續疲軟，本季產業出貨量較去年同期下降了 17%。洪水也對瓦萊州的工業貨運造成了影響。

Price and mix was a $2 million tailwind in the quarter, while costs were a headwind of $2 million. FX and Other was also a headwind of $2 million in the quarter. During the fourth quarter, AS&I had a negative impact of $10 million at Valais as a result of the flood.

本季度，價格和產品組合帶來 200 萬美元的順風，而成本則帶來 200 萬美元的逆風。特效其他方面也在本季遭遇了 200 萬美元的逆風。第四季度，由於洪水，AS&I 對瓦萊州造成了 1000 萬美元的負面影響。

For the full year 2024, AS&I generated adjusted EBITDA of $74 million, a decrease of 43% compared to 2023. Volume, FX and Other were similar impact in the full year as the fourth quarter, though for the full year, costs were a tailwind of $20 million.

2024 年全年，AS&I 的調整後 EBITDA 為 7,400 萬美元，與 2023 年相比下降了 43%。全年交易量、外匯和其他因素的影響與第四季類似，不過全年成本卻增加了 2,000 萬美元。

Price and mix was a headwind of $25 million and the Valais impact was a headwind of $20 million. It is not on the slide here, but our holdings and corporate expense for the full year in 2024 was $33 million, up $2 million from last year. We currently expect holdings and corporate expense to run at approximately $40 million in 2025.

價格和產品組合造成 2500 萬美元的不利影響，而瓦萊州的影響造成 2000 萬美元的不利影響。這裡沒有下滑，但我們 2024 年全年的持股和公司費用為 3,300 萬美元，比去年增加了 200 萬美元。我們目前預計 2025 年控股和公司費用將達到約 4,000 萬美元。

It is also not on the slide here, but I wanted to summarize the current cost environment we're facing. As you know, we operate a pass-through business model, so we're not materially exposed to changes in the market price of aluminum, our largest cost input.

這也不在這裡的幻燈片上，但我想總結一下我們目前面臨的成本環境。如您所知，我們採用的是直通式業務模式，因此我們不會受到鋁（我們最大的成本投入）市場價格變化的影響。

Now other metal costs. We experienced a dramatic tightening of scrap spreads in North America in 2024. We expect this to continue throughout 2025 and will create headwinds on metal costs, primarily impacting our PARP segment as it uses a significant amount of used beverage cans and other types of scrap.

現在其他金屬成本。2024 年，北美廢鋼價差大幅收緊。我們預計這種情況將持續到 2025 年，並​​將對金屬成本造成阻力，主要影響我們的 PARP 部門，因為該部門使用大量廢舊飲料罐和其他類型的廢料。

For energy, our 2025 costs are moderately more favorable compared to 2024, although energy prices remain above historical averages. Other inflationary pressures have eased to more normal levels. And as we said last quarter, given the weakness we're seeing in several of our markets, we have accelerated our Vision '25 cost improvement program with measures such as reducing headcount and other labor costs, reducing non-metal procurement spending, optimizing maintenance costs by minimizing the use of outside contractors and cost reduction efforts across many other categories.

對於能源而言，儘管能源價格仍高於歷史平均水平，但與 2024 年相比，我們 2025 年的成本略微有利。其他通膨壓力已緩解至更正常的水平。正如我們上個季度所說，鑑於我們在多個市場看到的疲軟，我們加快了「願景 25」成本改進計劃，採取的措施包括減少員工數量和其他勞動力成本、減少非金屬採購支出、透過最大限度地減少使用外部承包商來優化維護成本以及在許多其他類別中降低成本。

We have demonstrated strong cost performance in the past and we're confident in our ability to right size our cost structure for the current demand environment. You saw some of the benefits in our 2024 results and the run rate benefit should be even more in 2025.

我們過去已經展現了強大的成本績效，並且我們有信心根據當前的需求環境調整我們的成本結構。您在我們的 2024 年業績中看到了一些好處，而 2025 年的運行率好處應該會更多。

Now let's turn to slide 13 and discuss the free cash flow. Free cash flow was negative $100 million for the full year in 2024, although this includes a negative $45 million impact of Valais as a result of the flood, which is net of the $45 million of insurance proceeds we received in 2024. This also excludes $85 million of cash we received for the collection of deferred purchase price receivables, which is a result of our conversion from IFRS to US GAAP at the corresponding accounting treatment.

現在讓我們翻到第 13 張投影片來討論自由現金流。2024 年全年自由現金流為負 1 億美元，儘管其中包括瓦萊州因洪水造成的 4,500 萬美元的負影響，但該金額扣除了我們在 2024 年收到的 4,500 萬美元保險收益。這還不包括我們因收取遞延購買價應收款而收到的 8,500 萬美元現金，這是我們按照相應的會計處理從 IFRS 轉換為美國 GAAP 的結果。

The technical accounting treatment for the collection of deferred purchase price receivables does not change the economic reality or free cash flow generation historically for Constellium. The deferred purchase price receivables are related to some of our previous factoring arrangements in Europe. We have recently amended these arrangements and all cash received under the arrangements will be recorded in operating cash flows going forward.

遞延購買價款應收款的技術會計處理不會改變 Constellium 歷史上的經濟現實或自由現金流產生。遞延購買價格應收款與我們先前在歐洲的一些保理安排有關。我們最近修改了這些安排，根據這些安排收到的所有現金都將記錄在未來的營運現金流中。

As Jean-Marc mentioned, Free cash flow, excluding the impact of the Valais flood and including cash received for collection of deferred purchase price receivables would have been positive $30 million in 2024.

正如 Jean-Marc 所提到的，排除瓦萊州洪水的影響，包括收取遞延購買價應收款所收到的現金，自由現金流在 2024 年將達到正 3000 萬美元。

Looking at 2025, we expect to generate free cash flow in excess of $120 million for the full year. We expect CapEx to be approximately $330 million this year, which is around $70 million lower compared to 2024. We expect cash interest of approximately $120 million and cash taxes of approximately $40 million, and we expect working capital and Other to be a modest source of cash for the full year.

展望 2025 年，我們預計全年自由現金流將超過 1.2 億美元。我們預計今年的資本支出約為 3.3 億美元，比 2024 年低約 7,000 萬美元。我們預計現金利息約為 1.2 億美元，現金稅約為 4,000 萬美元，我們預計營運資金和其他資金將成為全年適度的現金來源。

As Jean-Marc mentioned previously, we continued our share buyback activities in the quarter. During the quarter, we repurchased 1.6 million shares for $18 million, bringing our 2024 total to 4.6 million shares for $79 million. We have approximately $221 million remaining in our existing share repurchase program, and we intend to use a large portion of the free cash flow generated this year for the program.

正如 Jean-Marc 之前提到的，我們在本季繼續進行股票回購活動。本季度，我們以 1,800 萬美元回購了 160 萬股，使我們 2024 年的總回購量達到 460 萬股，價值 7,900 萬美元。我們現有的股票回購計畫剩餘約 2.21 億美元，我們打算將今年產生的大部分自由現金流用於該計畫。

Now let's turn to slide 14 and discuss our balance sheet and liquidity position. At the end of the fourth quarter, our net debt of $1.8 billion was up $72 million compared to the end of 2023, partially as a result of the Valais flood. Our leverage was 3.1x at the end of 2024 were up 0.8x versus the end of 2023. If you exclude the Valais flood impact, leverage was 2.9x at the end of the year.

現在讓我們翻到第 14 張投影片，討論一下我們的資產負債表和流動性狀況。截至第四季末，我們的淨債務為 18 億美元，較 2023 年底增加了 7,200 萬美元，部分原因是瓦萊州洪水造成的。2024 年底我們的槓桿率為 3.1 倍，比 2023 年底上升了 0.8 倍。如果排除瓦萊州洪水的影響，年底的槓桿率為 2.9 倍。

We're committed to maintaining our leverage in the target leverage range of 1.5x to 2.5x over time. As you can see, our debt summary, we have no bond maturities until 2028 and our liquidity remains strong at $727 million as of the end of 2024.

我們致力於長期將槓桿率維持在 1.5 倍至 2.5 倍的目標槓桿範圍內。如您所見，根據我們的債務摘要，我們的債券在 2028 年之前沒有到期日，截至 2024 年底，我們的流動性仍然強勁，為 7.27 億美元。

With that, I will now hand the call back to Jean-Marc.

說完這些，我現在將電話轉回給 Jean-Marc。

Thank you, Jack. Let's turn to slide 16 and discuss our current end market outlook. The majority of our portfolio today is serving end markets benefiting from durable sustainability-driven secular growth in which aluminum, light an infinitely recyclable material plays a critical role. However, in the short term, many of these markets are facing headwinds.

謝謝你，傑克。讓我們翻到第 16 張投影片，討論一下我們目前的終端市場前景。我們目前的大部分產品組合都服務於受益於持久可持續性驅動的長期成長的終端市場，其中鋁這種可無限回收的材料發揮關鍵作用。然而，短期內，許多市場都面臨阻力。

Turning first to the aerospace market. Commercial aircraft backlogs are robust today and continue to grow. Major aero OEMs remain focused on increasing build rates for both narrow and widebody aircraft, though supply chain challenges continue to slow deliveries. As a result, aerospace supply chains need to adjust to lower-than-expected build rates, which is causing a shift in demand to the right for some of our products.

首先談談航空航太市場。目前商用飛機的訂單積壓情況十分強勁，且持續成長。儘管供應鏈挑戰繼續減緩交付速度，但主要航空原始設備製造商仍專注於提高窄體飛機和寬體飛機的製造率。因此，航空航太供應鏈需要適應低於預期的建造率，這導致我們的某些產品的需求向右移動。

Despite the slowdown in the near term, demand has stabilized for the most part, and we remain confident that the long-term fundamentals driving aerospace demand remain intact, including growing passenger traffic and greater demand for new, more fuel-efficient aircraft. Demand remains stable in the business and regional jet markets and healthy for military aircraft.

儘管短期內經濟有所放緩，但需求已基本趨於穩定，我們仍然相信，推動航空航天需求的長期基本面依然完好，包括不斷增長的客運量以及對新型、更省油的飛機的需求增加。商務和支線噴射機市場的需求保持穩定，軍用飛機市場的需求也保持健康。

Turning now to packaging. Demand remains healthy in both North America and Europe. The long-term outlook for this end market continues to be favorable, as evidenced by the growing consumer preference for the sustainable aluminum beverage can, capacity growth plans from can makers in both regions and a greenfield investment ongoing here in North America. Longer term, we continue to expect packaging markets to grow low to mid-single digits in both North America and Europe.

現在轉向包裝。北美和歐洲的需求依然強勁。消費者對可持續鋁製飲料罐的偏好日益增長、兩個地區罐頭製造商的產能增長計劃以及北美正在進行的綠地投資都證明了這一終端市場的長期前景仍然看好。從長遠來看，我們預計北美和歐洲的包裝市場仍將保持低至中等個位數的成長。

Let's turn now to automotive. Automotive OEM production of flight vehicles in Europe remains well below pre-COVID levels and is still below pre-COVID levels in North America as well. Demand in North America has softened in the near term, and demand in Europe remains weak, particularly in the luxury and premium vehicle and electric vehicle segments, where we have greater exposure.

現在讓我們來談談汽車。歐洲汽車原始設備製造商的飛行器產量仍遠低於新冠疫情之前的水平，北美的飛行器產量也仍低於新冠疫情之前的水平。北美的需求在短期內有所減弱，歐洲的需求仍然疲軟，特別是在我們涉足較多的豪華車和電動車領域。

In the long term, we believe electric and hybrid vehicles will continue to grow, but at a lower rate than previously expected. Sustainability trends such as light-weighting and increased fuel efficiency will continue to drive the demand for aluminum products. As a result, we remain positive on this market over the longer term in both regions despite the weakness we are seeing today. As you can see on the page, these three core end markets represent over 80% of our last 12 months revenue.

從長遠來看，我們相信電動和混合動力車將繼續成長，但成長速度將低於先前的預期。輕量化和提高燃油效率等永續發展趨勢將繼續推動對鋁產品的需求。因此，儘管我們目前看到市場疲軟，但我們對這兩個地區的長期市場仍持樂觀態度。正如您在頁面上看到的，這三個核心終端市場占我們過去 12 個月收入的 80% 以上。

Turning lastly to other specialties. In North America, demand appears to have stabilized albeit at low levels and demand remains weak in Europe. We have experienced weakness across most specialties markets for more than two years now, though we are beginning to see some green shoots in certain TID markets in North America.

最後談談其他專業。在北美，需求似乎已經穩定下來，儘管水準較低，但歐洲的需求仍然疲軟。兩年多來，大多數專業市場都處於疲軟狀態，不過我們開始看到北美某些 TID 市場出現一些復甦跡象。

As a reminder, these markets are typically dependent upon the health of the industrial economies in each region including drivers like the interest rate environment, industrial production levels and consumer spending patterns. As Jack mentioned, we continue to work hard to adjust our cost structure to current demand environment, which will put the businesses in an even better position when the industrial economies do recover.

提醒一下，這些市場通常取決於每個地區工業經濟的健康狀況，包括利率環境、工業生產水準和消費者支出模式等驅動因素。正如傑克所提到的，我們將繼續努力根據當前的需求環境調整我們的成本結構，這將使企業在工業經濟復甦時處於更有利的地位。

To conclude on the end markets, we like the fundamentals in each of the markets we serve, and we strongly believe that the diversification of our end markets is an asset for the company in any environment and that the current conditions will pass.

就終端市場而言，我們看好我們所服務的每個市場的基本面，我們堅信，無論在任何環境下，終端市場的多樣化對公司來說都是一項資產，而且當前的狀況將會過去。

Turning now to slide 17. Based on our current outlook, including the current end market conditions I just described, for 2025, we are targeting adjusted EBITDA, excluding the noncash metal price lag, in the range of $600 million to $630 million and free cash flow in excess of $120 million.

現在翻到第 17 張投影片。根據我們目前的展望，包括我剛才描述的當前終端市場狀況，到 2025 年，我們的目標是調整後的 EBITDA（不包括非現金金屬價格滯後）在 6 億至 6.3 億美元之間，自由現金流超過 1.2 億美元。

I'm also excited to establish today new long-term targets. For 2028, we expect to achieve adjusted EBITDA, excluding the noncash metal price lag of $900 million and free cash flow of $300 million. On the slide here, we provided a bridge to show the major drivers to achieving $900 million of adjusted EBITDA.

我也很高興今天能訂定新的長期目標。到 2028 年，我們預計實現調整後 EBITDA，不包括 9 億美元的非現金金屬價格滯後和 3 億美元的自由現金流。在這張投影片上，我們提供了一個橋樑來展示實現 9 億美元調整後 EBITDA 的主要動力。

Our 2028 target incorporates a recovery in the Valais following the flood, which is well underway; and an improvement of Muscle Shoals operational performance, which we have demonstrated recently in the past several months. It also incorporates the benefits from our previously announced return-seeking investments, which include cost-saving investments like the recycling and casting center in Neuf-Brisach, and the casthouse investments in Muscle Shoals and in Ravenswood as well as growth projects like the New Airware casthouse in Issoire and the battery foil investment with [Zotu], in Singen.

我們的 2028 年目標包括瓦萊州洪水後的恢復，目前恢復工作正在順利進行；以及馬斯爾肖爾斯行動表現的改善，我們在過去幾個月中已經證明了這一點。它還融合了我們先前宣布的尋求回報的投資的優勢，其中包括成本節約投資，如位於 Neuf-Brisach 的回收和鑄造中心、位於 Muscle Shoals 和 Ravenswood 的鑄造廠投資，以及增長項目，如位於 Issoire 的 New Airware 鑄造廠和與 [Zotu] 在 Singen 的電池箔投資。

All of these projects as well as some other smaller investments are included in our existing CapEx umbrella. We have also assumed additional market growth for each of our end markets, though the growth rate we assumed are rates which are generally below current industry estimates.

所有這些項目以及一些其他較小的投資都包含在我們現有的資本支出範圍內。我們也假設每個終端市場都會有額外的市場成長，儘管我們假設的成長率通常低於目前的產業估計。

As we have demonstrated in the past, we will continue to be disciplined on price. Also, as we have demonstrated in the past, we expect to maintain strict cost control to mitigate future inflationary impacts through productivity gains and other cost reduction initiatives.

正如我們過去所表明的那樣，我們將繼續嚴格控制價格。此外，正如我們過去所表明的那樣，我們希望保持嚴格的成本控制，透過提高生產力和其他降低成本的措施來減輕未來的通膨影響。

We have assumed the current tight scrap market in North America continues through 2028, which will lead to unfavorable metal costs, primarily in our PARP segment, compared to 2024. We also assumed a contingency in our 2028 target that should help offset potential deviations from the assumptions I just described.

我們預計，目前北美廢料市場的緊張局面將持續到 2028 年，與 2024 年相比，這將導致金屬成本不利，主要是在我們的 PARP 部門。我們也假設了 2028 年目標中的一種應急措施，這應該有助於抵消我剛才描述的假設可能造成的偏差。

Lastly, on the bridge, we assume no impact from tariffs, and we assume also that the macroeconomic and geopolitical conditions remain generally stable, but we are used to changes.

最後，在橋樑方面，我們假設關稅不會產生影響，我們也假設宏觀經濟和地緣政治條件總體保持穩定，但我們已經習慣了變化。

Turning lastly to slide 18. To conclude, while we continue to face challenging conditions in most of our markets today, we believe that this will pass, and I remain very excited about our future and the ability to seize the many opportunities in front of us.

最後翻到第 18 張投影片。總而言之，儘管我們今天在大多數市場仍然面臨著挑戰​​性條件，但我們相信這一切都會過去，我對我們的未來以及抓住面前的眾多機會的能力感到非常興奮。

We have demonstrated over and over again that we have the right strategy, the right teams and the right products in the right markets and that we know how to overcome prices. Our business model is flexible and resilient. Our diversified portfolio allows us to always have options in very different market conditions.

我們一次又一次證明，我們擁有正確的策略、正確的團隊、在正確的市場上擁有正確的產品，並且我們知道如何克服價格問題。我們的商業模式靈活且有彈性。我們多元化的投資組合使我們能夠在不同的市場條件下始終擁有選擇。

We have built the balance sheet we need to both weather prices and seize opportunities and our high-value, recyclable and sustainable products respond to the growing needs of our customers. We're extremely well positioned for long-term success, and we remain focused on executing our strategy and on shareholder value creation.

我們已經建立了既能抵禦價格波動又能抓住機會的資產負債表，我們的高價值、可回收和可持續產品能夠滿足客戶日益增長的需求。我們已為長期成功做好了充分準備，並且我們將繼續專注於執行我們的策略並為股東創造價值。

With that, operator, we will now open the Q&A session, please.

接線員，我們現在開始問答環節。

(Operator Instructions).

（操作員指令）。

Corinne Blanchard, Deutsche Bank.

科琳‧布蘭查德，德意志銀行。

Maybe the first question and the second will be probably around the same line, but the guidance that you guys gave and you did a good job of giving a lot of detail right now, but can you just give us maybe a little bit more like on the key tax and put for the '25 EBITDA guidance and also for the free cash flow, like maybe the cadence going into 2Q and 3Q?

也許第一個問題和第二個問題可能大致相同，但你們給出的指導以及你們現在提供的許多細節做得很好，但你能否給我們提供更多關於關鍵稅收和 25 年 EBITDA 指導以及自由現金流的信息，比如進入第二季度和第三季度的節奏？

And then my second question would be on the long-term outlook. Can you walk us through the bridge from '25 to '28 and our confident should the market or should investors be in that number by '28?

我的第二個問題是關於長期前景。您能否為我們介紹一下從 25 年到 28 年的歷程，以及我們對市場或投資者在 28 年之前是否應該達到這一數字的信心？

Yes, thank you. And I'll start, and Jack, I'm sure will help me. So on your first question on the key takes and puts for '25. So you look at the current conditions, I mean, as we said, the conditions we experienced in the second half of 2024 are continuing, and we'll feel their full impact in 2025. So the scrap spreads, for instance, dating of scratch spreads, we were protected last year with some annual contracts. We'll get the full impact of them this coming year. We believe that automotive is also going to be very weak in 2024, especially in Europe.

是的，謝謝。我先開始了，我相信傑克會幫助我。因此，關於您的第一個問題，關於 25 年的關鍵取捨。所以你看看現在的情況，我的意思是，正如我們所說的，我們在 2024 年下半年經歷的情況還在繼續，我們將在 2025 年感受到它們的全部影響。因此，例如廢鋼價差、刮擦價差的確定，我們去年通過一些年度合約得到了保護。明年我們將充分感受到它們的影響。我們認為，2024 年汽車產業也將非常疲軟，尤其是在歐洲。

On the aerospace side, we see that OEMs are struggling to meet the ramp-up, so that creates some elements of destocking in the supply chain. So we're quite prudent on our assumptions for our own shipments in aerospace with the main OEMs. Even though we can make up some of that with other programs like military aircraft or space as well.

在航空航太方面，我們看到原始設備製造商正在努力滿足產量成長的需求，因此這在供應鏈中造成了一些去庫存的因素。因此，我們對與主要原始設備製造商在航空航太領域的出貨量做出的假設非常謹慎。儘管我們也可以透過軍用飛機或太空等其他項目來彌補其中的一些不足。

And then obviously, the foreign exchange is not helping with the dollar strengthening of late. So that's another element. And then the Valais, as Jack mentioned, I believe, we still have some costs in Q1. So all that adds up to a number which is quite hefty going into 2025.

顯然，外匯近期對美元走強沒有幫助。這是另一個因素。然後是瓦萊州，正如傑克所提到的，我相信，我們在第一季仍然有一些成本。所以，到 2025 年，所有這些加起來的數字將相當可觀。

Now to offset that, we have talked about all the initiatives we have in place. We had talked about the ramp-up of the recycle center in Neuf-Brisach, and that's still very much underway and going well. We had talked about operational improvements in Muscle Shoals, which we are starting to see the beginning of, but now we feel very confident that we are doing a good job there, and we're back on track.

現在，為了抵消這一影響，我們已經討論了我們已採取的所有措施。我們曾討論過 Neuf-Brisach 回收中心的擴建事宜，目前這項工作仍在進行中，進展順利。我們曾討論過馬斯爾肖爾斯的營運改進，現在我們開始看到成效，但現在我們非常有信心，我們在那裡做得很好，而且我們已經回到正軌。

We also have the repricing of our -- some of our contracts in aerospace, which is going to benefit us starting in Q2. So -- and obviously, the cost savings that we have accelerated that Jack and maybe can comment a bit more about in 2025, in light of the challenging market conditions, our ambitions for cost reductions have greatly increased compared to where we were back in '24.

我們還對一些航空航天合約進行了重新定價，這將使我們從第二季度開始受益。因此 — — 顯然，我們已經加速了成本節約，傑克，也許可以對 2025 年發表更多評論，鑑於充滿挑戰的市場條件，我們降低成本的雄心與 24 年相比大大提高。

So when all that is said and done, you see a lot of adverse headwinds on the market side, right, generally, a little bit of a weaker beginning of the year because of the Valais and especially and the time it takes to have the full benefit of cost savings. And then you see all that being offset by the actions we had talked about. So I think that then -- that's how I can answer your first question. I don't know, Jack, if I miss anything or.

所以，當所有這一切都發生後，你會看到市場方面有很多不利的阻力，對吧，一般來說，由於瓦萊州的原因，年初市場會稍微疲軟一些，尤其是需要時間才能充分享受到成本節約的好處。然後你會看到所有這些都被我們所談論的行動所抵消。所以我認為——這就是我可以回答你的第一個問題的方式。傑克，我不知道我是否遺漏了什麼。

No, I think that's good. I think, obviously, in a weaker environment, as we mentioned, we're accelerating our cost reduction efforts on the Vision '25. Bucket of that is in labor, that bucket of that is outside of labor.

不，我認為那很好。我認為，顯然，在較弱的環境中，正如我們所提到的，我們正在加快實現「25願景」的成本削減努力。那一桶是臨產，那一桶是未臨產。

And previously, we've indicated $50 million program over three years, and we're targeting $15 million to $20 million, if you will, for 2025 relative to 2024 in this environment. We're looking at more savings. We're looking at $50 million plus of opportunities we're executing on. We're very proud of the efforts we've made so far, and we'll be very focused on cost.

先前，我們已表示將在三年內投入 5,000 萬美元，在這種環境下，我們的目標是 2025 年的投資額為 1,500 萬至 2,000 萬美元（相對於 2024 年而言）。我們正在尋求更多的節省。我們正在尋找價值 5000 萬美元以上的機會。我們對迄今為止所做的努力感到非常自豪，我們將非常關注成本。

Yes. So that's your first question, Corinne. Do you want to move to the second one, outlook '24 to -- I guess, '25 to '28, right?

是的。這是你的第一個問題，科琳。你想轉到第二個，展望 24 年至 28 年，對嗎？

'28.

'28。

Yes. So starting in '25, right, and I'll go back to Page 17, right? Most of the investments we're talking about, the second -- so sorry, let me back up. The Constellium recovery still very much in play. And most of that will -- is -- obviously, the Valais flood recovery is no more there because it happened in '24, right, so if you start in '25, that's already done.

是的。那麼從 25 年開始，對吧，我會回到第 17 頁，對吧？我們正在談論的大多數投資，第二個——很抱歉，讓我回顧一下。Constellium 的復甦仍在持續。其中大部分將 — — 顯然，瓦萊州的洪水恢復已經不復存在，因為它發生在 1924 年，對吧，所以如果你從 1925 年開始，那就已經完成了。

The investments are going to play out mostly towards the end of the period. I mean the recycling center in Neuf-Brisach is right now, but the other investments are going to contribute towards the later part of the period. We believe that overall, the path from now to there to '28 is pretty linear with some uncertainty, obviously, about how the markets recover.

這些投資大部分將在該時期末期完成。我的意思是現在位於 Neuf-Brisach 的回收中心已經建成，但其他投資將為後期做出貢獻。我們認為，總體而言，從現在到 28 年的路徑相當線性，但市場如何復甦顯然存在一些不確定性。

And one can make a case for markets recovering a bit faster. Our own assumptions internally, we believe are more prudent than what is out there. So we think some could say, well, it should improve faster, but we've been burned recently, so we tend to be prudent.

人們有理由相信市場復甦會更快。我們認為，我們內部的假設比外界的假設更為謹慎。因此我們認為有些人可能會說，嗯，它應該改善得更快，但我們最近遭受了損失，所以我們傾向於謹慎。

You could also say that -- that's not in our guidance, the tariffs in the US are going to be favorable to domestic suppliers, so that could accelerate some of that process. But anyway, we think we're going to be quite would like to be quite prudent.

你也可以說——這不在我們的指導範圍內，美國的關稅將對國內供應商有利，因此這可能會加速部分進程。但無論如何，我們認為我們會相當謹慎。

And then on the -- I think the bigger red box you see on the scrap spreads, we believe that once we've taken the brunt of the scrap spread tightening impact this year, this should be kind of stable in the future. So we're not banking really on an improvement of the scrap spread.

然後 - 我認為您在廢料價差上看到的更大的紅色框，我們相信，一旦我們在今年承受了廢料價差收緊的影響，未來這種情況應該會比較穩定。所以我們並不真正指望廢料價差會有所改善。

The reason we're not thinking that they can go worse is because at some point, it just becomes indifferent whether you recycle aluminum or you buy hiding it from primary aluminum. And that, I think, if you look at the scrap market, it's a worldwide market, at some point. If scrap spreads become too tight in the US, it will create imports of scrap into the US like that has happened in the past.

我們之所以認為情況不會變得更糟，是因為到了一定的時候，回收鋁還是購買原鋁都變得無關緊要了。我認為，如果你看一下廢品市場，你會發現它在某種程度上是一個全球市場。如果美國的廢料價差變得太小，就會像過去一樣導緻美國進口廢料。

So we're at a historically tight scrap levels here in the US. I don't think we've got much of a risk of that getting worse. So that's how I can think about the kind of '25 to '28, pretty regular cadence. And obviously, we know that the market can throw us some curveballs from time to time, but we're trying to stay ahead of it.

因此，美國的廢料供應處於歷史緊張水準。我認為情況惡化的風險並不大。這就是我對 25 至 28 年之間相當規律的節奏的看法。顯然，我們知道市場有時會為我們帶來一些意外，但我們會努力保持領先地位。

Maybe if I just can come back very quickly on the '25 guide. I think something that been asking since this morning is like, how should we think about the guidance if it had been given in euro. So what is the GAAP impact, like we're trying to see like what the factoring in impact and trying to see like what could have been the number of if you hadn't made the switch or so?

也許我可以很快回到 '25 指南。我認為從今天早上開始就有人問，如果以歐元給予指導，我們應該如何看待。那麼 GAAP 的影響是什麼呢，就像我們試圖了解影響因素是什麼，並試圖了解如果您沒有進行轉換的話，數字會是多少？

Yes. Cori, maybe we can take this off-line. I mean we're a US dollar company now, and we're thinking in US dollar terms. We can help you with the bridge potentially afterwards.

是的。Cori，也許我們可以把它離線。我的意思是我們現在是一家美元公司，我們以美元來思考。之後我們可能會幫助您建造這座橋樑。

Katja Jancic, BMO Capital Markets.

Katja Jancic，BMO 資本市場。

Maybe going back to the '25 guide, is it fair to assume given that near-term market is pretty challenging that the weighting is going to be more second half relative to first half?

也許回到 25 年的指南，考慮到近期市場相當具有挑戰性，是否可以合理地假設下半年的權重將比上半年更大？

I mean that's generally fair -- I would say the way I would kind of look at it is I'll look at first quarter and then beyond first quarter. First quarter, Jean-Marc already alluded to, we have -- it's, first of all, seasonally, due to seasonality, it is weaker comparatively and will have some impact from a -- remaining impact from the flood at Valais and as we progress into the year, we'll see some of the benefits to kicking more like the cost initiative, like the Muscle Shoals improvement. So it will be stronger in the middle of the year.

我的意思是，這總體上是公平的——我會這樣看待這個問題：我會看第一季度，然後看第一季之後的情況。第一季度，Jean-Marc 已經提到過，首先，由於季節性因素，我們的業績相對較弱，並且會受到瓦萊州洪水的影響，隨著今年的進展，我們將看到更多類似成本舉措、例如 Muscle Shoals 改進等好處。因此到年中時它會更加強勁。

So it's more like first quarter relative to the rest of the year, right?

所以相對於今年其他時間而言，這更像是第一季度，對嗎？

Correct.

正確的。

And then Katja, it's not in our guidance -- sorry, Katja, I just wanted to add, even though it's not in our guidance, we have to look at what the tariffs may mean for us. And as I said, tariffs by and large, we believe the way they are structured today should create opportunities for us. So that's more in the second half of the year, obviously.

然後卡佳，這不在我們的指導範圍內 - 抱歉，卡佳，我只是想補充一下，即使這不在我們的指導範圍內，我們也必須看看關稅對我們意味著什麼。正如我所說，總的來說，我們認為現行的關稅結構應該會為我們創造機會。顯然，下半年的情況會更加如此。

And is similarly -- is this similar for the free cash flow generation?

這與自由現金流的產生是否類似？

So it's a good question. So typically, in the first quarter is when we're building up working capital for the busier seasons. And typically, free cash flow is negative in the first quarter due to that reason. And -- but you remember, we started a number of cash initiatives last year to release cash from working capital due to the weaknesses we've experienced, and there was a kind of -- there's typically a lag in terms of when we see the benefits from those actions.

所以這是一個好問題。通常情況下，第一季我們會為繁忙季節累積營運資金。通常，由於這個原因，第一季的自由現金流為負。而且——但您記得，由於我們所經歷的弱點，我們去年啟動了一系列現金計劃，從營運資本中釋放現金，並且有一種——在我們何時看到這些行動帶來的好處方面通常存在滯後。

We saw some benefits in the fourth quarter last year, but we'll see the remaining benefits in the first quarter of this year to help offset the buildup of working capital, if you will, if that makes sense.

我們在去年第四季看到了一些好處，但我們將在今年第一季看到剩餘的好處，以幫助抵消營運資本的積累，如果你願意的話，如果這有意義的話。

Yes. And Jack, you mentioned a lot of the free cash flow will be used for share buybacks. But given the timing, is this again more maybe initially first Q, we don't really see an acceleration and then we see an acceleration later in the year?

是的。傑克，你提到很多自由現金流將用於股票回購。但考慮到時間安排，這是否更像是最初的第一個問題，我們並沒有真正看到加速，然後我們在今年晚些時候看到加速？

So I think we're comfortable with our leverage, and we're very confident in our liquidity position and we're confident in our free cash flow generation. So when you put it all together, we'll continue to be quite hands-off and just let the program run.

因此，我認為我們對我們的槓桿率感到滿意，我們對我們的流動性狀況非常有信心，我們對我們的自由現金流產生很有信心。因此，當你把所有東西放在一起時，我們將繼續放手不管，只讓程式運作。

Bill Peterson, JPMorgan.

摩根大通的比爾彼得森。

I have a few questions that I'd like to kind of come back to on the demand environment and I guess how that impacts the outlook for the year, $600 million to $630 million. So I guess, speaking about the market aspects themselves. Hoping you can go through the key assumptions for market growth and also just your own shipment growth and mix across the bigger markets like aerospace, packaging, auto and other.

我有幾個問題想問需求環境，以及這對今年的前景有何影響，6 億到 6.3 億美元。所以我想，談論的是市場方面本身。希望您能夠了解市場成長的關鍵假設以及您自己的出貨量成長以及在航空航太、包裝、汽車等更大市場的混合情況。

For example, aero, we're kind of aware of the destocking, but are you assuming shipments will remain kind of weak for the year and mix will be unfavorable? In the case of auto, you talked about weakening US, does that mean we should think of that going down this year?

例如，航空，我們知道庫存減少的情況，但您是否認為今年的出貨量仍將保持疲軟，而且產品組合不利？就汽車產業而言，您談到了美國汽車產業的疲軟，這是否意味著我們應該考慮今年汽車產業的下滑？

And then maybe in Europe, just remaining stable at a low level, kind of similar for industrials or are you just assuming flat given it's just already has been weak in Europe? Just trying to get a better understanding of how these end markets should impact this overall guide and I guess, how that could then translate into our reporting segments EBITDA flat, up, down, so forth?

那麼在歐洲，可能只是保持在較低水平的穩定，與工業的情況類似，或者您只是假設持平，因為歐洲的情況已經很弱了？只是想更了解這些終端市場應該如何影響這個整體指南，我想，這將如何轉化為我們的報告分部 EBITDA 持平、上升、下降等等？

Okay. So it's a really good question, Bill. I don't think we want to be too prescriptive on this one. But generally speaking, if you look at aerospace, we expect stable type of environment, although mix could be weaker as we've set in a weaker aerospace environment may cause us to push out some of the more profitable volume to later, right?

好的。所以這是一個非常好的問題，比爾。我認為我們不想對此做出過多的規定。但一般來說，如果你看一下航空航天，我們預計環境類型穩定，儘管組合可能會更弱，因為我們已經設定了較弱的航空航天環境可能會導致我們將一些更有利可圖的交易量推遲到以後，對嗎？

So you expect to see unfavorable mix, but stable from a volume perspective for aerospace. We do believe automotive will continue to be weak this year, if you were to look at the latest industry build rates for the year. In both North America and Europe, they are expected to be down versus 2024, and that will impact our automotive business.

因此，您預計會看到不利的組合，但從航空航天的數量角度來看是穩定的。如果你看今年最新的汽車產業建設率，我們確實相信今年汽車產業將繼續疲軟。預計北美和歐洲的產量都將較 2024 年下降，這將影響我們的汽車業務。

If you look at TID, I think there's some opportunities in TID, especially in North America in light of the tariff situation. So we do expect that to improve. And packaging, we do expect continued improvement in the packaging market. And did I forget any other markets?

如果你看一下 TID，我認為 TID 中存在一些機會，尤其是在北美，考慮到關稅情況。所以我們確實希望情況會有所改善。至於包裝，我們確實預期包裝市場將持續改善。我是否忘了其他市場？

No, and I think also in TID in Europe, just the fact that we are not flooded anymore and we've resumed production, that's going to help us as well out of our Sierre facility.

不，我認為在歐洲的 TID 中，我們不再受到洪水侵襲，而且我們已經恢復生產，這也將幫助我們從 Sierre 工廠恢復生產。

Yes. Good point.

是的。說得好。

Great. I wanted to come back to scrap both kind of from a near-term perspective, sort of 2025 as well as the bridge for 2028. So first, in the near term, I guess, is the sort of $15 million to $20 million per quarter discussed in the 4Q bridge the right way to think about the headwind for 2025?

偉大的。我想從近期的角度，也就是 2025 年以及 2028 年的橋樑角度，重新討論這兩項計畫。因此，首先，我猜，在短期內，第四季度財報中討論的每季度 1500 萬至 2000 萬美元是否是思考 2025 年逆風的正確方法？

And then over the midterm, and I guess on your bridge slide, can you break down, I guess, the impact of scrap versus foreign exchange? And I guess, how should we think about scrap spreads in other regions you operate in, particularly in Europe, acknowledging maybe better fundamental recycling rates and overall environment maybe potentially offset by weaker industrial activity?

然後在期中考期間，我想在你的橋樑幻燈片上，你能否分解廢料與外匯的影響？我想，我們應該如何看待您所在其他地區（尤其是歐洲）的廢料價差，承認更好的基本回收率和整體環境可能會被較弱的工業活動所抵消？

Yes. I'll start, Bill, and Jack will help me as well. So we think that the impact of scrap spreads is really a '25 event, and then we do not assume really an improvement going forward. It is -- we believe it is mostly a North American problem. And when I look at what scraps we're buying in Europe today, yes, it's a little bit tighter, but nothing really to write home about.

是的。我先開始，比爾，傑克也會幫助我。因此，我們認為廢料價差的影響實際上是一個『25』事件，我們並不認為未來會出現真正的改善。是的——我們認為這主要是北美的問題。當我看到我們今天在歐洲購買的廢料時，是的，情況有點緊張，但並沒有什麼值得大書特書的。

And long term, as you pointed out, there is more and more recycling happening in Europe, right, more and more collection of scrap, both industrial and consumers -- consumer scrap. So I think that's good for the balance in Europe. And we feel that we are well covered, both in the short term and the long term in Europe.

從長遠來看，正如您所指出的，歐洲的回收利用越來越多，對廢料的收集也越來越多，包括工業廢料和消費者廢料——消費廢料。所以我認為這對歐洲的平衡有利。我們認為，無論是短期或長期，我們在歐洲都得到了很好的保障。

North America, as I mentioned, it is a painful situation. The scrap spreads are very tight. We believe they're going to stay very tight. But from a variance standpoint, once we're passed to '25, we think it's not going to have much of an impact.

正如我所提到的，北美的情況非常痛苦。廢料價差非常小。我們相信他們會保持緊密聯繫。但從差異的角度來看，一旦我們通過'25，我們認為它不會產生太大的影響。

And in terms of foreign exchange, Jack will help me, I'm sure, but the dollar is stronger now than it was on average last year and the year before, actually. So that's reflected in our guidance. We don't make an assumption that the dollar is going to change much from where it's at 104, 105, right? So we don't assume it's going to be different in '25, '26, '27, '28, pretty flat.

在外匯方面，我確信傑克會幫助我，但實際上，美元現在比去年和前年的平均值更強勢。這反映在我們的指導上。我們不會假設美元匯率會從目前的 104、105 水準有很大變化，對嗎？因此，我們並不認為 25、26、27、28 年的情況會有所不同，而是相當平穩。

Does that answer your question, Bill?

這回答了你的問題嗎，比爾？

Yes. No, it largely does. And I guess the last point, if euro was to become stronger over the coming years, that actually flips to the tailwind, I guess, is the point.

是的。不，很大程度上是這樣的。我想最後一點是，如果歐元在未來幾年內變得更強，那麼這實際上就會轉向順風，我想這就是重點。

That is correct, yes. It creates -- yes, it creates a tailwind. From a cash flow standpoint, is not much different, right? The translation effect is a tailwind, yes.

是的，沒錯。是的，它創造了順風。從現金流的角度來看，差異不大，對吧？是的，翻譯效果是順風。

Timna Tanners, Wolfe Research.

坦納斯（Timna Tanners），沃爾夫研究公司（Wolfe Research）。

I wanted to ask a few higher-level questions if we could take a step back. So I know we just talked about the scrap dynamic in the US. But with regard to that being sustained with new capacity starting up this year, putting more pressure or sustained pressure on scrap, like what can you do to prepare longer term? You passed through the Midwest premium, which is obviously exploded.

如果我們能夠退一步的話，我想問幾個更高層次的問題。我知道我們剛才討論了美國的廢棄物動態。但是，考慮到今年新產能的啟動，廢料將面臨更大的壓力或持續的壓力，您可以做些什麼來為長期做好準備？您經過了中西部保費，這顯然是爆炸性的。

Is there just no way to pass through scrap in the short term? And in the longer term, can you switch up your inputs -- and then same question, short-term, long-term responses that Constellium can contemplate in terms of EU auto, if auto is just sustainably lower for the longer, can you switch some of that capacity more longer term?

短期內真的沒有辦法處理廢棄物嗎？從長遠來看，你能否改變你的投入 - 然後是同樣的問題，短期，長期反應是 Constellium 可以考慮的，就歐盟汽車而言，如果汽車價格長期持續走低，你能否在更長期內轉換一些產能？

And then the third short-term, long-term question is really on the potential for switching away from aluminum given these higher prices with Coca-Cola talking about that topic. So just -- those are three questions. I'm sorry. I can repeat it if you want, but I'd love to get your thoughts.

然後，第三個短期和長期問題實際上是在鋁價上漲的情況下，是否有可能擺脫鋁的束縛，可口可樂正在談論這個話題。所以只是——這是三個問題。對不起。如果您願意，我可以重複一遍，但我很想知道您的想法。

No, that's fine. Thank you, Timna. So on the scrap dynamics, right? So there is a specific pressure on used beverage cans, but that's -- it's a very out portion of what we buy, but it's -- I don't want to give an exact number, but around 50% of what we buy, right? So there's other types of scrap, and there's plenty of other scraps that we can use.

不，沒關係。謝謝你，蒂姆娜。那麼廢料動態是這樣的嗎？因此，對舊飲料罐有特定的壓力，但那是——這是我們購買的很大一部分，但它是——我不想給出一個確切的數字，但大約占我們購買量的 50%，對嗎？所以還有其他類型的廢料，還有很多其他廢料可供我們利用。

And the other factor is, as the Midwest premium increases and that -- as the US economy becomes stronger relative to the rest of the world, which is happening right now, we end up in a place where imports of scrap, as I mentioned earlier, become more attractive.

另一個因素是，隨著中西部溢價的增加，以及美國經濟相對於世界其他地區變得更加強勁（這種情況正在發生），正如我之前提到的，我們最終會發現廢料進口變得更具吸引力。

So that also will put a dampening effect on further scrap tightening. Then as you mentioned, at some point, if it is so expensive and people will look at, okay, well, there's a better option, which is buying sheeting gut from primary smelters and that will put also a damper on how high scrap prices can go.

因此這也會對廢料進一步收緊產生抑製作用。然後，正如您所提到的，在某個時候，如果它如此昂貴，人們就會考慮，好吧，有一個更好的選擇，那就是從初級冶煉廠購買板材，這也會抑制廢料價格的上漲。

So all that, we believe, we factored that all in, at a pretty high level. So we believe that the projections we have that are in both our 600 and 900 targets, reflects scrap market conditions that are quite unusual, and we do not believe are sustainable. And we will see. So maybe there's an upside there.

因此，我們相信，我們已經將所有這些都考慮在內了，而且考慮的程度相當高。因此，我們認為，我們的 600 和 900 目標預測反映了廢品市場狀況相當不尋常，我們認為這種狀況是不可持續的。我們將會看到。所以這也許有一個好處。

And I think you had a question also on -- so I think I -- that was the question on scrap, right? The question on EU auto. Yes, so the first thing to do is -- for us is we're not going to invest growth capital in automotive, okay? And we have not recently and we are not going to do that anytime soon given where the markets are and the uncertainty. So now it's a matter of how do we best use the capacity we have.

我認為您也有一個問題 - 所以我認為 - 這是關於廢料的問題，對嗎？關於歐盟汽車的問題。是的，所以首先要做的是——對我們來說，我們不會將成長資本投資於汽車產業，好嗎？但我們最近沒有這樣做，而且考慮到市場的現狀和不確定性，我們近期也不會這樣做。所以現在的問題是如何最好地利用我們現有的能力。

As you know, 80% of the assets, if not more, that make auto are used also for other products like can sheet to mention. And we believe that we have this opportunity to make more can sheet. We -- and we have it both in North America and Europe. So that's very much in play for us and we are fully ready to do that.

眾所周知，製造汽車的資產的 80%（甚至更多）也用於其他產品，例如罐板。我們相信我們有機會生產更多的罐頭板。我們——我們在北美和歐洲都有。所以這對我們來說非常重要，我們已經做好了充分的準備。

If anything, last year, we passed on some volume opportunities, quite significant in can sheet, because we couldn't produce for plenty of reasons, starting with the snow event in Muscle Shoals. I mean some operational issues we had that we don't have anymore.

如果有什麼不同的話，那就是去年我們錯過了一些大量生產的機會，這對於罐裝板材來說非常重要，因為我們由於多種原因而無法生產，首先是 Muscle Shoals 的降雪。我的意思是，我們之前的一些操作問題現在已經不存在了。

So we believe we were able to repurpose capacity quite efficiently. And then obviously, if there is no or limited business for automotive, we will have to be very strict in how we manage our costs on the auto finishing lines, which are important, but not a huge part of our business.

因此我們相信我們能夠非常有效地重新利用產能。顯然，如果沒有汽車業務或汽車業務有限，我們將必須非常嚴格地管理汽車整車生產線的成本，這很重要，但不是我們的業務的很大一部分。

And then finally, you mentioned, well, aluminum is going to be so expensive that maybe people will switch away from aluminum. So well, steel is getting expensive, too, by the way. Historically, it's quite interesting to note that people look at aluminum as being volatile because it's quoted daily and plastics and steel are less transparent. Actually, when you look at the volatility of input materials, plastics and steel are more volatile than aluminum, number 1.

最後，您提到，鋁的價格將會非常昂貴，以至於人們可能會不再使用鋁。順便說一句，鋼鐵也變得越來越貴了。從歷史上看，值得注意的是，人們認為鋁具有波動性，因為鋁的價格每天都有報價，而塑膠和鋼鐵的透明度較低。實際上，當你觀察輸入材料的波動性時，塑膠和鋼鐵比鋁的波動性更大，位居第一。

So as a user, okay, and I've got to make a choice of what I'm going to use, I get more stability, and I can hedge it by the way, the volatility will try much more difficult for the other ones. So I got a material that I better know how it's -- what it's going to cost.

因此，作為用戶，好吧，我必須選擇要使用什麼，我可以獲得更多的穩定性，順便說一下，我可以對沖它，波動性對於其他人來說將更加困難。所以我得到了一份材料，我最好知道它的價格是多少——它要花多少錢。

The second point to remember is that aluminum even today, even if you were to put the price at -- premium, sorry, at $1,000 per ton it is still less expensive than it was in 2007 and there was no change in the packaging mix happening in -- from 2005 to 2008 or 2006, 2007 because of changes in the price of material.

要記住的第二點是，即使在今天，即使你將鋁的價格定為——溢價，對不起，每噸 1,000 美元，它仍然比 2007 年便宜，而且從 2005 年到 2008 年或 2006 年、2007 年，由於材料價格的變化，包裝組合沒有發生變化。

And finally, I'll submit that it is a very small part of the package of the finished product, right? And there's many more choices than just how much the price of that beverage can is going to be next quarter that goes into the choice of packaging.

最後，我要說的是，這只是成品包裝中很小的一部分，對嗎？在選擇包裝時，除了考慮下個季度飲料罐的價格之外，還有更多的選擇。

I mean you've got the whole infrastructure, the filling lines that you've got to handle and they require capital. You've got the distribution channels, you've got consumer preferences, you've got the shelf space. All these questions are and then more, right, all these questions that need to be addressed.

我的意思是，你必須擁有整個基礎設施、你必須處理的填充線，而且它們需要資金。你有分銷管道，你有消費者偏好，你有貨架空間。所有這些問題都是，而且更多，對，所有這些問題都需要解決。

So I don't want to be casual and say that when says, well, we can also use other materials, it doesn't mean it. But I think it takes a very substantial shift in relative competitiveness of materials for such changes to happen and then they happen at a slow pace, if they do. Did I answer your question, Timna?

所以我不想隨便說，當我們說「我們也可以使用其他材料」時，這並不意味著我們也可以使用其他材料。但我認為，要發生這種變化，材料的相對競爭力需要非常大的轉變，而且這種變化發生的速度也很緩慢，如果真的發生了的話。我回答你的問題了嗎，提姆娜？

No, that's helpful.

不，這很有幫助。

At this time, we currently have no further questions. So I'll hand back to Jean-Marc for any further remarks.

目前，我們沒有其他問題。因此我將把發言權交還給 Jean-Marc，以便他發表進一步的評論。

Well, thank you, everybody, again, for your interest in Constellium. As you can tell, the 2024 was not a fun year for us. It was disappointing in terms of outcome. But I think we can say, and I hope we've convinced some of you that we are on a strong footing to resume growth, and we've got a clear path ahead of us and the path ahead of us relies on things that are really a lot of them are under our control.

好吧，再次感謝大家對 Constellium 的關注。正如你所看到的，2024 年對我們來說並不是快樂的一年。結果令人失望。但我想我們可以說，我希望我們已經讓你們中的一些人相信，我們有能力恢復增長，我們面前有一條清晰的道路，而我們面前的道路依賴於很多我們能夠控制的事情。

So we're excited about the years coming ahead of us, and we look forward to updating you on our process in the next quarter. Thank you so much, everybody. Bye-bye.

因此，我們對未來幾年感到興奮，並期待在下個季度向您通報我們的進展。非常感謝大家。再見。

Thank you all for joining today's call. You may now disconnect your lines.

感謝大家參加今天的電話會議。現在您可以斷開線路了。