思科 (CSCO) 2018 Q4 法說會逐字稿

Welcome to Cisco's Fourth Quarter Fiscal Year 2018 Financial Results Conference Call.

歡迎參加思科 2018 財年第四季度財務業績電話會議。

At the request of Cisco, today's conference is being recorded.

應思科的要求，今天的會議正在錄製中。

If you have any objections, you may disconnect.

如有異議，可斷開連接。

Now I would like to introduce Marilyn Mora, Head of Investor Relations.

現在我想介紹一下投資者關係主管 Marilyn Mora。

Thank you.

謝謝。

You may begin.

你可以開始了。

Thanks, Michelle.

謝謝，米歇爾。

Welcome, everyone, to Cisco's Fourth Quarter Fiscal 2018 Quarterly Earnings Conference Call.

歡迎大家參加思科 2018 財年第四季度季度收益電話會議。

This is Marilyn Mora, Head of Investor Relations, and I'm joined by Chuck Robbins, our Chairman and CEO; and Kelly Kramer, our CFO.

我是投資者關係主管 Marilyn Mora，我們的董事長兼首席執行官 Chuck Robbins 也加入了我的行列；和我們的首席財務官 Kelly Kramer。

By now you should have seen our earnings press release.

到現在為止，您應該已經看到了我們的收益新聞稿。

A corresponding webcast with slides, including supplemental information, will be made available on our website in the Investor Relations section following the call.

電話會議後，將在我們網站的“投資者關係”部分提供相應的帶幻燈片的網絡廣播，包括補充信息。

Income statements, full GAAP to non-GAAP reconciliation information, balance sheets, cash flow statements and other financial information can also be found in the Financial Information section of our Investor Relations website.

損益表、完整的 GAAP 與非 GAAP 調節信息、資產負債表、現金流量表和其他財務信息也可以在我們的投資者關係網站的“財務信息”部分找到。

Throughout this conference call, we will be referencing both GAAP and non-GAAP financial results and will discuss product results in terms of revenue and geographic and customer results in terms of product orders unless stated otherwise.

在整個電話會議中，除非另有說明，否則我們將參考 GAAP 和非 GAAP 財務結果，並將討論收入方面的產品結果以及產品訂單方面的地理和客戶結果。

All comparisons made throughout this call will be on a year-over-year basis unless stated otherwise.

除非另有說明，否則本次電話會議中進行的所有比較都將按年進行。

The matters we will be discussing today include forward-looking statements, including the guidance we will be providing for the first quarter of fiscal 2019.

我們今天將討論的事項包括前瞻性陳述，包括我們將為 2019 財年第一季度提供的指引。

They are subject to the risks and uncertainties that we discuss in detail in our documents filed with the SEC, specifically the most recent reports on Forms 10-K and 10-Q, which identify important risk factors that could cause actual results to differ materially from those contained in the forward-looking statements.

它們受到我們在提交給美國證券交易委員會的文件中詳細討論的風險和不確定性的影響，特別是關於 10-K 和 10-Q 表格的最新報告，這些報告確定了可能導致實際結果與實際結果大不相同的重要風險因素包含在前瞻性陳述中的內容。

With respect to guidance, please also see the slides and press release that accompany this call for further details.

關於指南，另請參閱本次電話會議隨附的幻燈片和新聞稿以了解更多詳細信息。

As a reminder, Cisco will not comment on its financial guidance during the quarter unless it is done through an explicit public disclosure.

提醒一下，除非通過明確的公開披露，否則思科不會就本季度的財務指引發表評論。

I will now turn it over to Chuck.

我現在將把它交給查克。

Thank you, Marilyn, and good afternoon, everyone.

謝謝瑪麗蓮，大家下午好。

We had a very strong finish to a great year.

我們為偉大的一年畫上了圓滿的句號。

We generated our highest quarterly revenue of $12.8 billion and non-GAAP EPS of $0.70, as growth accelerated for another consecutive quarter.

隨著連續另一個季度的加速增長，我們創造了 128 億美元的最高季度收入和 0.70 美元的非 GAAP 每股收益。

Our momentum was broad-based across our portfolio, customer segments and geographies.

我們的勢頭廣泛存在於我們的產品組合、客戶群和地區。

We also continued to generate solid margins, cash flow and returns for our shareholders.

我們還繼續為股東創造可觀的利潤率、現金流和回報。

Our results demonstrate a combination of strong customer adoption of our latest innovations, the ongoing value customers see in our software and subscription offerings and excellent execution across our customer segments and geographies.

我們的結果證明了客戶對我們最新創新的強烈採用、客戶在我們的軟件和訂閱產品中看到的持續價值以及我們在客戶群和地區的出色執行。

Our strategy is working, and we believe that we are well-positioned to capture growth across the portfolio with our pipeline of innovation.

我們的戰略正在奏效，我們相信我們有能力通過我們的創新渠道在整個產品組合中實現增長。

The broad adoption of multi-cloud environments is changing the very nature of how modern IT infrastructures are built and secured, and Cisco is at the center of this transition.

多雲環境的廣泛採用正在改變現代 IT 基礎設施構建和保護方式的本質，而思科處於這一轉變的中心。

The recently announced intent to acquire Duo Security is another example of how we are extending our intent-based networking portfolio for the multi-cloud world.

最近宣布的收購 Duo Security 的意向是我們如何為多雲世界擴展基於意圖的網絡產品組合的另一個例子。

Duo's SaaS-delivered solution will expand our cloud security capabilities to help enable any user on any device to securely connect to any application on any network.

Duo 的 SaaS 交付解決方案將擴展我們的雲安全功能，幫助任何設備上的任何用戶安全地連接到任何網絡上的任何應用程序。

Combining Cisco's network, endpoint and cloud security platform with Duo's zero-trust authentication and access solutions, we will be able to further enhance the industry's broadest and most effective security architecture in the market.

將思科的網絡、端點和雲安全平台與 Duo 的零信任身份驗證和訪問解決方案相結合，我們將能夠進一步增強市場上業界最廣泛、最有效的安全架構。

Now I'll briefly highlight some of our innovation and the great momentum we're seeing across our key product areas.

現在我將簡要強調我們的一些創新以及我們在關鍵產品領域看到的巨大勢頭。

Starting with Infrastructure Platforms.

從基礎設施平台開始。

We continue to rapidly innovate and transform our technology portfolio to drive even greater customer value.

我們繼續快速創新和改造我們的技術組合，以推動更大的客戶價值。

A year ago, we reinvented Enterprise Networking with the launch of our intent-based networking architecture.

一年前，我們推出了基於意圖的網絡架構，徹底改造了企業網絡。

This quarter, we saw continued strength in Infrastructure Platforms, driven by the Catalyst 9000, as customers look to us to simplify and automate their networks.

本季度，在 Catalyst 9000 的推動下，我們看到基礎設施平台的持續增長，因為客戶希望我們簡化和自動化他們的網絡。

Over the last year, we introduced additional innovations across our networking portfolio, including new access, WAN and data center offerings.

去年，我們在網絡產品組合中引入了更多創新，包括新的接入、廣域網和數據中心產品。

In June, we announced new developer capabilities across our intent-based networking portfolio, spanning all network domains: Campus switching, wireless, WAN, data center and cloud.

6 月，我們宣布了基於意圖的網絡產品組合的新開發人員功能，涵蓋所有網絡領域：園區交換、無線、WAN、數據中心和雲。

We're also excited that our developer program, DevNet, surpassed 500,000 registered members.

我們也很高興我們的開發者計劃 DevNet 的註冊會員超過 500,000 人。

As part of this program, we introduced new offerings to help developers and network engineers innovate throughout our intent-based architecture.

作為該計劃的一部分，我們推出了新產品來幫助開發人員和網絡工程師在我們基於意圖的架構中進行創新。

As we all know, the WAN is undergoing an architectural transition to a software-defined WAN to enable IT to rapidly respond to changing business needs in a digital and cloud world.

眾所周知，WAN 正在經歷向軟件定義 WAN 的架構轉變，以使 IT 能夠快速響應數字和雲世界中不斷變化的業務需求。

Our customers are driving this transition and looking to Cisco to help them make this shift.

我們的客戶正在推動這一轉變，並期待思科幫助他們實現這一轉變。

Our SD-WAN portfolio leverages our leading networking products, automation and robust security architecture to enable greater flexibility, increased bandwidth and lower costs.

我們的 SD-WAN 產品組合利用我們領先的網絡產品、自動化和強大的安全架構來實現更大的靈活性、更高的帶寬和更低的成本。

This quarter, we saw significant traction with Viptela, as it has now been deployed at over 800 customers, driven by our ability to provide higher capacity at a lower cost.

本季度，我們看到了 Viptela 的巨大吸引力，因為它現在已經部署在 800 多個客戶中，這得益於我們以更低的成本提供更高容量的能力。

We are pleased with the ongoing integration of Viptela with our core portfolio to drive even more value for our customers.

我們很高興 Viptela 與我們的核心產品組合不斷整合，為我們的客戶帶來更多價值。

As our customers move to a multi-cloud environment, we see tremendous opportunities to provide value to them by redesigning their IT architecture, delivering security and building, orchestrating and managing applications.

隨著我們的客戶轉向多雲環境，我們看到了巨大的機會，可以通過重新設計他們的 IT 架構、提供安全性以及構建、編排和管理應用程序來為他們提供價值。

In Q4, we saw the production launch of our hybrid cloud solution with Google, the introduction of a multi-cloud solution with NetApp and numerous engagements with customers redesigning their IT architectures.

在第 4 季度，我們見證了與 Google 合作的混合雲解決方案的生產發布、與 NetApp 合作的多雲解決方案的推出，以及與客戶重新設計其 IT 架構的眾多合作。

We continue to believe Cisco is very well-positioned to benefit from the increasing adoption of multi-cloud.

我們仍然相信，思科處於有利地位，可以從多雲的日益普及中受益。

Turning to security.

轉向安全。

Security continues to be our customers' #1 concern and it is a top priority for us.

安全仍然是我們客戶的第一要務，也是我們的首要任務。

Our strategy is to simplify and increase security efficacy through an architectural approach, with products that work together and share analytics and actionable threat intelligence.

我們的戰略是通過架構方法簡化和提高安全效率，產品協同工作並共享分析和可操作的威脅情報。

This architecture is supported by Talos, one of the largest commercial threat intelligence teams in the world.

該架構由 Talos 提供支持，Talos 是世界上最大的商業威脅情報團隊之一。

We identify and protect against new and emerging threats, like the recent VPN filter vulnerability, through our sophisticated infrastructure and unrivaled telemetry of data.

我們通過先進的基礎設施和無可匹敵的數據遙測來識別和防禦新出現的威脅，例如最近的 VPN 過濾器漏洞。

Cisco is the largest network and enterprise security company, and our approach of bringing security into the intent-based architecture and offering security across the network, endpoint and cloud has proven to be very successful.

思科是最大的網絡和企業安全公司，事實證明，我們將安全性引入基於意圖的架構並跨網絡、端點和雲提供安全性的方法非常成功。

This quarter, we saw continued strong momentum with revenue again accelerating and growing double digits year-over-year.

本季度，我們看到了持續強勁的增長勢頭，收入再次加速增長，同比增長兩位數。

We continue to invest in our product and technology innovation as we are committed to helping our customers on their multi-cloud journey.

我們將繼續投資於我們的產品和技術創新，因為我們致力於幫助我們的客戶踏上多雲之旅。

Our focus is on delivering cloud security solutions that provide ease-of-use, scalability and protect end users.

我們的重點是提供易於使用、可擴展並保護最終用戶的雲安全解決方案。

As I mentioned earlier, with our acquisition of Duo Security, we will further enhance how we deliver simple, automated, trusted access anywhere for our customers' environments.

正如我之前提到的，通過收購 Duo Security，我們將進一步增強為客戶環境隨時隨地提供簡單、自動化、可信訪問的方式。

Moving to applications.

轉向應用程序。

In May, we announced the launch of WebEx Teams, bringing together meetings, calling and teamwork into an integrated experience as part of the WebEx platform.

5 月，我們宣布推出 WebEx Teams，作為 WebEx 平台的一部分，將會議、呼叫和團隊合作整合到一個集成體驗中。

In Q4, we introduced major new enhancements to the platform, including a new user design for WebEx Meetings and a new solution with Google, combining their contact center AI service with the WebEx platform.

在第 4 季度，我們對該平台進行了重大的新改進，包括 WebEx Meetings 的新用戶設計和與 Google 合作的新解決方案，將他們的聯絡中心 AI 服務與 WebEx 平台相結合。

With more than 3 million customer service agents globally using Cisco's contact center software, our integration with Google will help to automate responses in our call centers by leveraging data and intelligence from AI.

全球有超過 300 萬客戶服務代理使用 Cisco 的聯絡中心軟件，我們與 Google 的集成將有助於利用 AI 的數據和智能在我們的呼叫中心自動響應。

We also achieved another robust quarter of growth with AppDynamics, underscoring the importance and value of our unique end-to-end visibility and analytics from the end user to the network to the application.

我們還通過 AppDynamics 實現了又一個強勁的季度增長，凸顯了我們從最終用戶到網絡再到應用程序的獨特端到端可見性和分析的重要性和價值。

To wrap up, 2018 was a great year.

總而言之，2018 年是偉大的一年。

We returned to growth, invested in our core franchises, delivered new innovative platforms and continued to shift our business to more software and subscriptions.

我們恢復了增長，投資於我們的核心特許經營權，提供了新的創新平台，並繼續將我們的業務轉移到更多的軟件和訂閱上。

Our record results demonstrate the strength of our business as well as the strategic focus and execution that we have delivered over the past 12 months.

我們創紀錄的業績證明了我們的業務實力以及我們在過去 12 個月中交付的戰略重點和執行力。

I want to thank our teams around the globe for delivering these results.

我要感謝我們在全球的團隊取得這些成果。

We are looking forward to fiscal year '19 with a clear focus on growth, execution and innovation.

我們期待 19 財年明確關注增長、執行和創新。

We see incredible opportunities across our business and believe we are uniquely positioned to deliver on our vision to be one of the most strategic partners to our customers as they go through their digital transformation.

我們在整個業務中看到了難以置信的機會，並相信我們具有獨特的優勢，可以實現我們的願景，成為客戶在數字化轉型過程中最具戰略意義的合作夥伴之一。

Kelly, I'll now turn it over to you.

凱利，我現在把它交給你。

Thanks, Chuck.

謝謝，查克。

I'll start with a summary of our financial results for the quarter, then cover the full fiscal year and the Q1 outlook.

我將從本季度的財務業績摘要開始，然後涵蓋整個財政年度和第一季度展望。

Q4 was a solid quarter across the business.

第四季度是整個業務的穩定季度。

We executed well with strong orders, revenue growth, margins, EPS and operating cash flow.

我們在強勁的訂單、收入增長、利潤率、每股收益和經營現金流方面表現良好。

It was great to see accelerated momentum in product orders, which grew 7%.

很高興看到產品訂單加速增長，增長了 7%。

Total revenue was $12.8 billion, up 6%.

總收入為 128 億美元，增長 6%。

Our non-GAAP operating margin rate was 30.9%.

我們的非 GAAP 營業利潤率為 30.9%。

Non-GAAP net income was $3.3 billion, up 8%.

非 GAAP 淨收入為 33 億美元，增長 8%。

And non-GAAP EPS was $0.70, up 15%.

非 GAAP 每股收益為 0.70 美元，增長 15%。

Let me provide some more detail on our Q4 revenue.

讓我提供更多關於我們第四季度收入的細節。

Total product revenue was up 7%, with broad strength across the portfolio.

產品總收入增長了 7%，整個產品組合具有廣泛的實力。

Infrastructure Platforms grew 7%, with growth in all businesses except for routing, which was down slightly.

基礎設施平台增長 7%，除路由略有下降外，所有業務均有增長。

Switching had another great quarter with strong growth in campus, driven by the ramp of the Cat 9K and growth in data center driven by the Nexus 9K.

在 Cat 9K 的增長和 Nexus 9K 推動的數據中心增長的推動下，Switching 又迎來了一個強勁增長的季度。

We saw good growth in wireless with strength in Meraki and our Wave 2 offerings.

我們看到無線業務的良好增長以及 Meraki 和我們的 Wave 2 產品的實力。

Data center had very strong double-digit growth driven by servers and HyperFlex.

在服務器和 HyperFlex 的推動下，數據中心實現了非常強勁的兩位數增長。

Routing declined slightly driven by weakness in SP routing.

由於 SP 路由的疲軟，路由略有下降。

Applications was up 10% in total with growth across all the businesses.

隨著所有業務的增長，應用程序總數增長了 10%。

We saw very solid growth in Unified Communications, TelePresence, conferencing and AppDynamics.

我們在統一通信、網真、會議和 AppDynamics 方面看到了非常穩健的增長。

Security was up 12%, with strong performance in network security, unified threat, policy and access and web security.

安全增長了 12%，在網絡安全、統一威脅、策略和訪問以及 Web 安全方面表現強勁。

Service revenue was up 3%, driven by growth in advanced services as well as Software and Solution Support.

受高級服務以及軟件和解決方案支持增長的推動，服務收入增長了 3%。

We continue to transform our business, delivering more software offerings and driving more subscriptions and recurring revenues.

我們繼續轉變我們的業務，提供更多的軟件產品並推動更多的訂閱和經常性收入。

In Q4, recurring revenue was 32% of total revenue, an increase of 1 point from a year ago.

第四季度，經常性收入佔總收入的 32%，比一年前增加了 1 個百分點。

Revenue from subscriptions was 56% of our total software revenue, up 5 points year-over-year.

訂閱收入占我們軟件總收入的 56%，同比增長 5 個百分點。

We drove good growth in deferred revenue, which was up 6% in total, with product up 15% and services up 1%.

我們推動了遞延收入的良好增長，總收入增長了 6%，其中產品增長了 15%，服務增長了 1%。

Deferred product revenue from our recurring software and subscription offers was $6.1 billion, up 23%.

來自我們經常性軟件和訂閱優惠的遞延產品收入為 61 億美元，增長 23%。

There was also a strong increase in the unbilled deferred, which is not on the balance sheet.

未列在資產負債表上的未開票遞延款項也有強勁增長。

The combined total deferred revenue plus unbilled deferred was up 28%.

總遞延收入加上未開票遞延收入增長了 28%。

When we look at the impact of acquisitions on our Q4 results year-over-year, there was a 90 basis point positive impact on revenue.

當我們查看收購對我們第四季度業績的同比影響時，對收入產生了 90 個基點的積極影響。

We saw especially strong momentum in Q4 with total product orders growing 7%.

我們在第四季度看到了特別強勁的勢頭，總產品訂單增長了 7%。

Looking at our geographies.

看看我們的地理位置。

Americas grew 6%, EMEA was up 6% and APJC was up 12%.

美洲增長 6%，EMEA 增長 6%，APJC 增長 12%。

Total emerging markets was up 12%, with the BRICS plus Mexico up 22%.

新興市場總量增長了 12%，其中金磚國家和墨西哥增長了 22%。

In our customer segments, enterprise was up 11%; commercial was up 9%; public sector was up 1%; and service provider returned to growth, up 6%.

在我們的客戶群中，企業增長了 11%；商業廣告上漲 9%；公共部門上漲 1%；和服務提供商恢復增長，增長 6%。

Our product backlog at the end of Q4 was $6.6 billion, up 38% year-over-year.

我們在第四季度末的產品積壓訂單為 66 億美元，同比增長 38%。

From a non-GAAP gross margin perspective, total Q4 gross margin was 62.9%, down 0.8 points.

從非美國通用會計準則毛利率來看，第四季度總毛利率為 62.9%，下降 0.8 個百分點。

Product gross margin was 61.5%, down 0.4 points.

產品毛利率為61.5%，同比下降0.4個百分點。

And service gross margin was 67.1%, down 1.7 points.

服務毛利率為67.1%，下降1.7個百分點。

Product gross margin was down 0.4 points, driven by our APJC region related to some SP-specific deals as well as negative product mix.

產品毛利率下降 0.4 個百分點，原因是我們的 APJC 地區與一些特定於 SP 的交易以及負面產品組合有關。

Product gross margin for the Americas and EMEA were both up year-over-year.

美洲和 EMEA 的產品毛利率均同比增長。

Overall, pricing continued to have relatively modest erosion, as we have seen over the past couple of quarters, and we continue to be negatively impacted by higher component costs, which we expect to continue in the near term.

總體而言，正如我們在過去幾個季度所看到的那樣，定價繼續受到相對溫和的侵蝕，並且我們繼續受到更高的組件成本的負面影響，我們預計這種情況將在短期內繼續存在。

In terms of the bottom line from a GAAP perspective, Q4 net income was $3.8 billion and EPS was $0.81.

從 GAAP 的角度來看，第四季度淨收入為 38 億美元，每股收益為 0.81 美元。

The GAAP results include an $863 million benefit related to the Tax Cuts and Jobs Act.

GAAP 結果包括與《減稅和就業法案》相關的 8.63 億美元收益。

We've excluded the benefit from our non-GAAP results.

我們已經從我們的非 GAAP 結果中排除了收益。

We ended Q4 with total cash, cash equivalents and investments of $46.5 billion.

第四季度末，我們的現金、現金等價物和投資總額為 465 億美元。

Q4 operating cash flow was $4.1 billion, up 2%, with free cash flow of $3.9 billion, also up 2%.

第 4 季度運營現金流為 41 億美元，增長 2%，自由現金流為 39 億美元，也增長 2%。

From a capital allocation perspective, we returned $7.5 billion to our shareholders during the quarter that was comprised of $6 billion of share repurchases and $1.5 billion for our quarterly dividend.

從資本配置的角度來看，我們在本季度向股東返還了 75 億美元，其中包括 60 億美元的股票回購和 15 億美元的季度股息。

I'll now cover the full fiscal year.

我現在將涵蓋整個財政年度。

We delivered solid revenue, margins, net income, EPS and operating cash flows.

我們實現了可觀的收入、利潤率、淨收入、每股收益和經營現金流。

Revenue was $49.3 billion, up 3%.

收入為 493 億美元，增長 3%。

Our non-GAAP operating margin rate was 31.1%.

我們的非 GAAP 營業利潤率為 31.1%。

Non-GAAP net income was $12.7 billion, up 5%.

非 GAAP 淨收入為 127 億美元，增長 5%。

And non-GAAP EPS was $2.60, up 9%.

非 GAAP 每股收益為 2.60 美元，增長 9%。

Our total non-GAAP gross margin was 63.8%, a decrease of 0.5 points, with product gross margin down 0.4 points and service gross margin down 0.9 points.

我們的非美國通用會計準則總毛利率為 63.8%，下降 0.5 個百分點，其中產品毛利率下降 0.4 個百分點，服務毛利率下降 0.9 個百分點。

GAAP net income was $110 million, and GAAP EPS was $0.02, which includes the charges related to the Tax Cuts and Jobs Act of $10.4 billion.

GAAP 淨收入為 1.1 億美元，GAAP 每股收益為 0.02 美元，其中包括與 104 億美元的減稅和就業法案相關的費用。

For the full fiscal year, we delivered operating cash flow of $13.7 billion.

在整個財政年度，我們交付了 137 億美元的運營現金流。

We paid approximately $1.4 billion of onetime foreign taxes during the year related to the Tax Cuts and Jobs Act.

我們在這一年支付了大約 14 億美元的與《減稅和就業法》相關的一次性外國稅款。

Operating cash flow increased 8%, normalized for these tax payments.

營業現金流量增加了 8%，這些稅款支付正常化。

We returned $23.6 billion to shareholders over the fiscal year, which represented 184% of our free cash flow that was made up of $17.7 billion of share repurchases and $6 billion for our quarterly dividend.

我們在本財年向股東返還了 236 億美元，占我們自由現金流的 184%，自由現金流由 177 億美元的股票回購和 60 億美元的季度股息組成。

To summarize, we had a strong Q4 and fiscal year.

總而言之，我們有一個強勁的第四季度和財政年度。

We executed well with strong top line growth and profitability.

我們執行良好，收入增長強勁，盈利能力強。

We're seeing the returns on the investments we're making in innovation and driving the shift to more software and subscriptions, delivering long-term growth and shareholder value.

我們正在看到我們在創新和推動向更多軟件和訂閱的轉變方面所做投資的回報，從而實現長期增長和股東價值。

As a reminder, we are adopting the new revenue recognition standard, ASC 606, as of Q1 fiscal year '19 on a modified retrospective basis.

提醒一下，我們採用新的收入確認標準 ASC 606，自 19 財年第一季度起採用修改後的追溯基礎。

Its primary impact will be to accelerate our revenue recognition for certain software licenses and sales to 2-tier distributors as well as the recognition of a deferred commissions asset that will be amortized over the terms of our sales contracts.

其主要影響將是加快我們對某些軟件許可和向二級分銷商的銷售的收入確認，以及對將根據我們的銷售合同條款攤銷的遞延佣金資產的確認。

Let me reiterate our guidance for the first quarter of fiscal year '19.

讓我重申我們對 19 財年第一季度的指導。

This guidance includes the type of forward-looking information that Marilyn referred to earlier.

本指南包括 Marilyn 之前提到的前瞻性信息類型。

We expect revenue growth in the range of 5% to 7% year-over-year.

我們預計收入同比增長 5% 至 7%。

This range includes the impact of ASC 606, which we estimate to be a benefit of about 1%.

該範圍包括 ASC 606 的影響，我們估計其收益約為 1%。

We anticipate the non-GAAP gross margin rate to be in the range of 63% to 64%.

我們預計非美國通用會計準則毛利率將在 63% 至 64% 的範圍內。

The non-GAAP operating margin rate is expected to be in the range of 30% to 31%.

非 GAAP 營業利潤率預計在 30% 至 31% 之間。

And the non-GAAP tax provision rate is expected to be 19%.

非美國通用會計準則的稅收撥備率預計為 19%。

Non-GAAP earnings per share is expected to range from $0.70 to $0.72.

非 GAAP 每股收益預計在 0.70 美元至 0.72 美元之間。

The guidance includes our Service Provider Video Software Solutions business that we recently agreed to sell and excludes the Duo acquisition, since both transactions have not closed.

該指南包括我們最近同意出售的服務提供商視頻軟件解決方案業務，但不包括對 Duo 的收購，因為這兩項交易尚未完成。

We expect the SPVSS transaction to close in the first half of fiscal '19, subject to customary closing conditions and regulatory approvals.

我們預計 SPVSS 交易將在 19 財年上半年完成，具體取決於慣例成交條件和監管部門的批准。

I'll now turn it back to Marilyn so we can move into the Q&A.

我現在將把它轉回瑪麗蓮，這樣我們就可以進入問答環節了。

Thanks, Kelly.

謝謝，凱利。

Michelle, let's go ahead and open the line for questions.

米歇爾，讓我們開始提問吧。

(Operator Instructions)

（操作員說明）

I'll now turn it over to Michelle.

我現在把它交給米歇爾。

Vijay Bhagavath from Deutsche Bank Securities.

德意志銀行證券的 Vijay Bhagavath。

So my question to you, Chuck, and Kelly, please chime in, is it reasonable to assume you'd be extending the software subscription idea and plan across the portfolio?

所以我想問你們，Chuck 和 Kelly，請插話，假設你們會在整個產品組合中擴展軟件訂閱的想法和計劃是否合理？

Give us an early glimpse as to how is it going?

讓我們提前了解一下進展如何？

What are some of the challenges?

有哪些挑戰？

What are some of the positive surprises?

有哪些積極的驚喜？

And would the makeup of the software subscription portfolio meaningfully change as you look to extend this model across the portfolio?

當您希望將此模型擴展到整個產品組合時，軟件訂閱產品組合的構成是否會發生有意義的變化？

Thanks, Vijay.

謝謝，維杰。

So most of you know that we -- when we began the sell of the Catalyst 9000, that was the first attempt to sell a subscription software offering on top of a core networking product.

所以你們大多數人都知道我們 - 當我們開始銷售 Catalyst 9000 時，那是第一次嘗試在核心網絡產品之上銷售訂閱軟件產品。

And that has gone, as we've said on prior calls, reasonably well.

正如我們在之前的電話會議上所說的那樣，這已經相當順利了。

I'm very pleased with how the adoption has been from our customers.

我對我們客戶的採用情況感到非常滿意。

They understand the value.

他們了解價值。

As I said early on, we put -- we knew when we started that process that we would need to deliver significant innovation that wasn't available in the traditional methodology of buying it in order for our customers to adopt it.

正如我早些時候所說，我們 - 我們知道當我們開始這個過程時，我們需要提供重要的創新，這在傳統的購買方法中是不可用的，以便我們的客戶採用它。

And some of those were the Encrypted Traffic Analytics, the overarching analytic -- I mean, the automation capability and then recently, some Assurance.

其中一些是加密流量分析，即總體分析——我的意思是，自動化能力，然後是最近的一些保證。

And you'll see us over the next coming quarters, when we bring new products to market in the -- particularly in the enterprise networking space, but across the portfolio, we will apply that same strategy.

你會在接下來的幾個季度看到我們，當我們將新產品推向市場時 - 特別是在企業網絡領域，但在整個產品組合中，我們將應用相同的策略。

So I think that we've been pleased.

所以我認為我們很高興。

And our job now is to ensure that the operational infrastructure of the company is prepared, and we're working towards being able to ensure that customers are deriving the value from that software as well as obviously putting in the operational capabilities to ensure the renewals, et cetera.

我們現在的工作是確保公司的運營基礎設施準備就緒，我們正在努力確保客戶從該軟件中獲得價值，並顯然投入運營能力以確保續訂，等等。

So that's what we're focused on.

這就是我們關注的重點。

Kelly, any...?

凱利，任何...？

No, I think you hit it.

不，我想你中了它。

Rod Hall from Goldman Sachs.

來自高盛的 Rod Hall。

I'm kind of beside myself, don't know where to start.

我有點不知所措，不知道從哪裡開始。

These are so good.

這些太好了。

But let me -- I guess, let me kick off with a question on the deferred revenue, Kelly.

但是讓我——我想，讓我先問一個關於遞延收入的問題，凱利。

The -- you said that including this off-balance sheet, deferred is up 28%.

- 你說包括這個資產負債表外，遞延增加了 28%。

Is that total deferred or product deferred?

是總延期還是產品延期？

Can you just clarify what you meant by that?

你能澄清一下你的意思嗎？

And also, maybe help us understand what that ASC 606 impact on deferred was because that was, I guess, negative?

而且，也許可以幫助我們了解 ASC 606 對延遲的影響是什麼，因為我猜這是負面的？

Yes, sure.

是的，當然。

So on your question on the deferred revenue plus unbilled deferred, so that was up 28%.

所以關於遞延收入加上未開票遞延的問題，所以增長了 28%。

The big driver we have for that, that is just purely product, okay?

我們擁有的主要驅動力是純粹的產品，好嗎？

So it is -- what we mostly have in our unbilled deferred is from our collaboration, our Applications business.

所以它是 - 我們在未開票的延期付款中大部分來自我們的合作，我們的應用程序業務。

They have a lot of periodic billing that they book month-to-month.

他們有很多按月預訂的定期賬單。

That is a very large number.

這是一個非常大的數字。

So it is kind of apples-to-apples of business that we have booked that we will recognize in the future.

因此，我們已經預訂的業務是一種蘋果對蘋果的業務，我們將在未來認識到這一點。

So that's why we look at both.

所以這就是我們同時看兩者的原因。

When we do adopt ASC 606 for Q1, that will be one of our disclosures, showing you the combination of deferred plus unbilled, so you have our remaining performance obligations.

當我們確實在第一季度採用 ASC 606 時，這將是我們的一項披露，向您顯示遞延和未開票的組合，因此您有我們剩餘的履約義務。

But it is just product, that 28%.

但它只是產品，即 28%。

As far as the ASC 606, we adopt that in Q1.

至於 ASC 606，我們在第一季度採用了它。

So in the results we just went through, of the $6.1 billion of deferred from software and subscriptions, that is related to how we've been accounting for it under the old ASC 605.

因此，在我們剛剛經歷的結果中，在軟件和訂閱延期支付的 61 億美元中，這與我們在舊 ASC 605 下的會計處理方式有關。

So when we go in...

所以當我們進去...

Just to clarify, though, would you write down some -- you'll write some of the deferred down in Q1 as a result of the change or not much or...?

不過，為了澄清一下，你會記下一些 - 你會因為變化而在第一季度記下一些延期還是不多或......？

Yes.

是的。

So yes, I can give you some direction.

所以是的，我可以給你一些指導。

You'll see that in our K. So we will be writing off a portion of that balance.

您會在我們的 K 中看到這一點。因此我們將註銷部分餘額。

So of the $6 billion, we will be writing off and restating because you basically restate your balance sheet for the new accounting rules.

因此，在 60 億美元中，我們將註銷並重新編制，因為您基本上是根據新會計規則重新編制資產負債表。

And like we've said over the past year, where we will have that impact is things that were term-based software licenses, things like our ELAs or Cisco ONE, those will now be recognized upfront where they used to be deferred.

就像我們在過去一年中所說的那樣，我們將產生影響的是基於期限的軟件許可，例如我們的 ELA 或 Cisco ONE，這些現在將在過去被推遲的地方提前得到認可。

So the deferred revenue balance will be written down for that, and we'll take -- so we'll take -- we'll lower the balance of the deferred revenue.

因此，遞延收入餘額將為此減記，我們將採取 - 我們將採取 - 我們將降低遞延收入的餘額。

And then as we go into Q1, we will be recognizing any new business that we bill upfront from that.

然後當我們進入第一季度時，我們將確認我們從中預先計費的任何新業務。

Ittai Kidron from Oppenheimer.

來自奧本海默的 Ittai Kidron。

I guess, Chuck, maybe you can help me figure out how you managed to navigate so well in what seems to be such treacherous waters out there between some deceleration in economic activity in Europe; the FX movement recently, which is not favorable to you, although you price in dollars, nonetheless, makes your products a little bit more expensive internationally; poor CapEx matrix out of the large telcos; tariff wars.

我想，查克，也許你能幫我弄清楚你是如何在歐洲經濟活動放緩之間看似如此危險的水域中如此順利地航行的；最近的外匯走勢對你不利，雖然你以美元定價，但使你的產品在國際上更貴一點；大型電信公司的資本支出矩陣不佳；關稅戰。

Globally, you seem to be moving along, sidestepping all of those things.

在全球範圍內，你似乎在前進，迴避所有這些事情。

Which of these things really bother you, concern you or you're watchful, you're preparing for?

這些事情中的哪一個真正困擾你，讓你擔心，或者你正在警惕，你正在準備？

And then second question, maybe you can kind of dig in a little bit on the networking, the Cat 9K, clearly, good progress.

然後是第二個問題，也許你可以在網絡上挖掘一點，Cat 9K，顯然，進展順利。

Are there any customer matrix or anything you can give us there to help us solidify or get better visibility into the trend there?

是否有任何客戶矩陣或您可以提供給我們的任何東西來幫助我們鞏固或更好地了解那裡的趨勢？

Yes, Ittai.

是的，一泰。

I was feeling pretty good until you asked the first part of your question.

在您問出問題的第一部分之前，我感覺很好。

I have said publicly, I think we're operating in a -- we have been operating in, what I would call, it's been a very consistent global economic scenario.

我已經公開說過，我認為我們正在經營——我們一直在經營，我稱之為，這是一個非常一致的全球經濟情景。

There's clearly, even in the last few weeks, been things that have arisen.

很明顯，即使在過去幾週，也出現了一些事情。

You've got the strengthening of the dollar that you mentioned.

你已經得到了你提到的美元走強。

You've got some uncertainty in a couple of emerging countries.

一些新興國家存在一些不確定性。

So those are clearly things that we'll watch.

所以這些顯然是我們要觀察的事情。

And we're -- we've seen these in the past, and we know how to deal with them.

我們——我們過去見過這些，我們知道如何處理它們。

We obviously have the impending tariff situation, which we're watching closely.

我們顯然有即將發生的關稅情況，我們正在密切關注。

And on that front, we're in deep discussions in Washington with the administration on trying to get to a favorable outcome.

在這方面，我們正在華盛頓與政府進行深入討論，試圖取得有利的結果。

We'd like to see that land in a good place.

我們希望看到那片土地在一個好地方。

But overall, all of those are things that we are very actively involved with and we watch on a daily basis.

但總的來說，所有這些都是我們非常積極參與的事情，我們每天都在關注。

As it relates to the networking business, the Catalyst 9000, as I said previously, has been the fastest-ramping product that we've ever built.

由於它與網絡業務相關，正如我之前所說，Catalyst 9000 一直是我們構建的速度最快的產品。

So the customer count became less of an indicator pretty quickly, and it flowed through to the infrastructure systems growth that you saw this quarter.

因此，客戶數量很快就不再是一個指標，它流入了您在本季度看到的基礎設施系統增長。

So we didn't see it as a metric that was -- we usually use that metric on customer count when we're just trying to give you visibility to the ramp of a new product when it hasn't become real material to the revenue line.

所以我們沒有把它看作是一個指標——我們通常在客戶數量上使用這個指標，當我們只是想讓你看到新產品的增長時，它還沒有成為真正的收入來源線。

And I think that we exceeded that point in time with the 9K pretty quickly.

而且我認為我們很快就超過了 9K 的那個時間點。

But I will tell you, just so you know, I think -- Kelly, keep me honest on this -- I think we had roughly 9,650-plus customers on the 9K as of the end of the quarter.

但我會告訴你，你知道，我想——凱利，讓我誠實地說——我認為截至本季度末，我們在 9K 上有大約 9,650 多名客戶。

We had a great Q4, great adoption.

我們有一個偉大的第四季度，偉大的採用。

And we're very happy with where that product and that architecture is.

我們對該產品和該架構的位置感到非常滿意。

Pierre Ferragu from New Street Research.

來自 New Street Research 的 Pierre Ferragu。

I actually wanted to ask you about service provider.

我其實想問你關於服務提供商的問題。

So you returned to growth this quarter, which is fantastic.

所以你在本季度恢復了增長，這太棒了。

And I think you mentioned as well that your routing business was weak, and most of that weakness was in the service provider vertical as well.

我想你也提到你的路由業務很薄弱，而且大部分弱點也出現在服務提供商垂直領域。

So I was curious to understand how you grew revenues, if -- even if routing was negative or maybe I got something wrong?

所以我很想知道你是如何增加收入的，如果 - 即使路由是負面的或者我可能出錯了？

And then, of course, I'm very curious to hear whether this recovering service provider spending might be driven by 5G already.

然後，當然，我很好奇這種正在恢復的服務提供商支出是否已經受到 5G 的推動。

Let me answer the macro question about the overall situation we see in service provider, and then, Kelly, maybe you can cover the routing and the impact, the first part of the question.

讓我回答關於我們在服務提供商中看到的總體情況的宏觀問題，然後，凱利，也許你可以涵蓋問題的第一部分路由和影響。

So Pierre, the -- in the service provider space, we were obviously pleased.

所以皮埃爾，在服務提供商領域，我們顯然很高興。

I've said a number of times over the last couple of years that this is a business that is dominated by large customers.

在過去的幾年裡，我已經多次說過，這是一個由大客戶主導的行業。

And so as we've always said, when we have several of them that are slowing their spending, then it looks bad; when we have several that are spending, it looks pretty good.

因此，正如我們一直說的那樣，當我們中有幾個正在放慢支出時，情況看起來很糟糕；當我們有幾個正在消費時，它看起來很不錯。

And that's just the nature of this business.

這就是這項業務的本質。

Relative to 5G, I will tell you that -- I think I've said this on prior calls.

關於 5G，我會告訴你——我想我在之前的電話中已經說過了。

Starting at Mobile World Congress earlier this year, we really -- we heard these customers in earnest begin and engage in discussions around what network requirements would look like for the infrastructure to support 5G, assuming that they're going to add lots of high-speed connections at the edge, it will require high-performance networks with quality of service and slicing and all those things.

從今年早些時候的世界移動通信大會開始，我們真的——我們聽到這些客戶認真地開始並參與討論支持 5G 的基礎設施的網絡要求是什麼樣的，假設他們要增加很多高-為了在邊緣加速連接，它將需要具有服務質量和切片以及所有這些東西的高性能網絡。

So I would say that -- I would not say that this is a material result of the implementation of 5G, to be honest.

所以我會說 - 老實說，我不會說這是實施 5G 的實質性結果。

We expect that is still a year out before many will start and probably see it in earnest into 2020, to be fair.

公平地說，我們預計還需要一年時間，許多人才會開始，並且可能會在 2020 年認真看到它。

But we're pleased with what our teams have done.

但我們對我們的團隊所做的感到滿意。

It's been a tough market.

這是一個艱難的市場。

Our teams have continued to battle.

我們的團隊繼續戰鬥。

And our engineering team continues to work on next-generation innovation, and we're pleased with the results this quarter.

我們的工程團隊繼續致力於下一代創新，我們對本季度的結果感到滿意。

Kelly?

凱莉？

Yes, and to the point of -- this why have better revenue, if you remember last quarter, the SP segment was down 4%.

是的，如果你還記得上個季度，這就是為什麼收入更好的原因，SP 部分下降了 4%。

And you're seeing that flow through the revenue this quarter when we talked about routing overall.

當我們談到整體路由時，您會看到本季度的收入流向。

So when I look forward, we don't kind of talk about our guidance in the upfront by business.

因此，當我展望未來時，我們不會通過業務提前談論我們的指導。

But some of this, on the order side, might play well as you go into Q1.

但其中一些，在訂單方面，可能會在您進入第一季度時發揮良好。

What I will say, adding on to Chuck's comments is, I do think and as you know very well, our service provider segment is made up of very, very large customers.

我要說的是，除了 Chuck 的評論之外，我確實認為，正如你所知，我們的服務提供商部分由非常非常大的客戶組成。

And in any one quarter, we can get big orders, and that can fluctuate around.

在任何一個季度，我們都可以獲得大訂單，並且會上下波動。

So as to the sustainability, I would say we feel good about our position, though I expect this could move around either way as we look forward.

至於可持續性，我想說我們對自己的處境感覺良好，儘管我預計隨著我們的展望，這可能會以任何一種方式發生變化。

Sami Badri from Credit Suisse.

來自瑞士信貸的 Sami Badri。

My first question has a lot to do with Europe and the strength you saw in the region in this last quarter.

我的第一個問題與歐洲以及您在上個季度看到的該地區的實力有很大關係。

And then is it safe to assume that going into next quarter and your very strong guidance, are you expecting to see the same kind of magnitude of strength in Europe again despite all the moving pieces politically?

然後可以安全地假設進入下個季度和你非常強大的指導，你是否期望在歐洲再次看到同樣的實力，儘管在政治上有很多變化？

And then the second question I really have is about the Viptela product launch.

然後我真正有的第二個問題是關於 Viptela 產品發布。

Are you addressing customers that are already big users, end customers of the campus product and the Meraki products to kind of up-sell customers into your new Viptela product?

您是否正在針對已經是大用戶的客戶、園區產品和 Meraki 產品的最終客戶，以向客戶追加銷售您的新 Viptela 產品？

Or maybe you can give us just an idea on the sales cycle and the customer base that you're addressing.

或者，也許您可以僅向我們介紹一下您正在解決的銷售週期和客戶群。

If you don't mind, Sami, I'm going to answer the second one, and then I'll give you a little qualitative color on Europe.

如果你不介意，薩米，我將回答第二個問題，然後我會給你一些關於歐洲的定性色彩。

And then Kelly will answer the specifics on the business expectations.

然后凱利將回答有關業務期望的細節。

So on the second part of your question relative to Viptela and software-defined WAN, we have 2 offers.

因此，在您關於 Viptela 和軟件定義 WAN 的問題的第二部分，我們有 2 個報價。

We have -- Meraki has an offer -- for those customers who have embraced the Meraki architecture, they have a very effective SD-WAN solution that is actually being well received in their customer base, and they're using it to extend their customer base.

我們有——Meraki 提供——對於那些接受 Meraki 架構的客戶，他們有一個非常有效的 SD-WAN 解決方案，實際上在他們的客戶群中很受歡迎，他們正在使用它來擴展他們的客戶根據。

So that's been very successful.

所以這是非常成功的。

On the Viptela front, we have been working hard on the integration between the Viptela platform and Cisco's product.

在Viptela方面，我們一直致力於Viptela平台與思科產品的集成。

And so we're going to have a variety of offerings for our customers.

因此，我們將為我們的客戶提供各種產品。

We'll have a version that will have software running on different types of hardware.

我們將有一個版本，可以在不同類型的硬件上運行軟件。

We'll have a software-only solution.

我們將有一個純軟件解決方案。

We'll have our integrated ISR solution.

我們將擁有集成的 ISR 解決方案。

And so we're seeing a number of those.

所以我們看到了其中的一些。

This was a quarter where, I would say, we really saw the engagement level increase significantly.

這是一個季度，我想說，我們確實看到參與度顯著提高。

We got the offers in the marketplace, the first wave of those.

我們在市場上得到了報價，這是第一波。

And I said on the Q3 call that our teams were signaling us that Q4 was where we're going to see some of this come to fruition, and we, in fact, did.

我在第三季度的電話會議上說，我們的團隊向我們發出信號，即第四季度是我們將看到其中一些成果的地方，事實上，我們做到了。

So we feel good about where we are right now.

所以我們對我們現在所處的位置感覺很好。

There's more work to go.

還有更多的工作要做。

We haven't gotten the SD-WAN integration into DNA Center yet.

我們還沒有將 SD-WAN 集成到 DNA 中心。

So that will only be, I think, a positive boost when we get that done.

因此，我認為，當我們完成這項工作時，這只會是一種積極的推動。

The teams are working on that.

團隊正在為此努力。

I think it's coming in one of the upcoming releases.

我認為它會出現在即將發布的版本之一中。

So in general, we're pleased with where we are at this moment in time with Viptela.

所以總的來說，我們對 Viptela 目前的處境感到滿意。

Europe, our team is doing really well there.

歐洲，我們的團隊在那裡做得非常好。

Our teams are executing well.

我們的團隊執行得很好。

I think that they are competing very well because we have some very tough competition there.

我認為他們的競爭非常好，因為我們在那裡有一些非常激烈的競爭。

We have --- the team in Europe is always one of the early teams leading with some of these new technology areas.

我們在歐洲的團隊始終是領先於其中一些新技術領域的早期團隊之一。

So they've had a lot of success in this core enterprise networking space as we move to intent-based networking.

因此，隨著我們轉向基於意圖的網絡，他們在這個核心企業網絡領域取得了很大成功。

So we're pleased with what they're doing.

所以我們對他們正在做的事情感到滿意。

We feel the entire global macro environment right now, there are so many dynamics that we're calling it like we see it based on what we know today.

我們現在感受到了整個全球宏觀環境，有太多的動態，我們稱之為我們根據我們今天所知道的看到的那樣。

And Kelly, you want to comment just on how we see the...?

凱利，你只想評論我們如何看待......？

Yes, I mean, I think just to add to your point, I think the environment's very strong in Europe despite the political things that are going on.

是的，我的意思是，我想補充一下你的觀點，我認為歐洲的環境非常強勁，儘管正在發生政治事件。

And just as a data point, the U.K. is up double digits for us on product orders this quarter.

作為一個數據點，本季度英國對我們的產品訂單增長了兩位數。

So again, it is -- I think like Chuck was saying, the overall environment is very favorable as of right now.

再次重申，我認為就像 Chuck 所說的那樣，目前的整體環境非常有利。

So we're hoping we see this continued strength.

所以我們希望我們看到這種持續的力量。

Yes, and a lot of the innovation that we're bringing right now is actually targeted at helping our customers lower the expenses of running this infrastructure.

是的，我們現在帶來的很多創新實際上是為了幫助我們的客戶降低運行這個基礎設施的費用。

So there's a significant play to be made in -- almost like as customers look at where they are economically, there's reduction of cost by going to this automation platform.

因此，有一個重要的發揮 - 幾乎就像客戶看到他們在經濟上的位置一樣，通過使用這個自動化平台可以降低成本。

There's reduction of cost by moving to SD-WAN.

通過遷移到 SD-WAN 可以降低成本。

So these are technologies that we are hopeful will continue to be important to our customers regardless.

因此，我們希望這些技術無論如何都會對我們的客戶繼續發揮重要作用。

Samik Chatterjee, you may go ahead, from JPMorgan.

Samik Chatterjee，你可以繼續，來自摩根大通。

I just had a question on the guide for the first quarter.

我剛剛對第一季度的指南有疑問。

You clearly have good momentum on the top line, although when I look at the operating margin guidance, it's kind of flat year-over-year.

您顯然在收入方面有良好的勢頭，儘管當我查看營業利潤率指導時，它與去年同期持平。

So I was -- just want to check if there's something that's limiting kind of the flow-through of the solid momentum on the top line to the operating margin?

所以我 - 只是想檢查是否有什麼東西限制了頂線穩固勢頭對營業利潤率的流動？

Is there something that's limiting the leverage of that to the bottom line?

有什麼東西限制了它對底線的影響嗎？

And is that something we should hope for in the future and provides kind of a second leg to the earnings growth?

這是我們未來應該希望的事情，並為盈利增長提供第二條腿嗎？

Yes, thanks for the question.

是的，謝謝你的提問。

No, I don't think you need to read anything different of what's happening on the margin.

不，我不認為你需要閱讀任何與邊緣發生的事情不同的東西。

I mean, if I look at the puts and takes that we have to our margin, I spoke a little bit about we can have -- we have a little margin pressure this quarter in some specific deals in APJC.

我的意思是，如果我看一下我們的保證金，我談到了我們可以擁有的——本季度我們在 APJC 的一些特定交易中有一點保證金壓力。

But otherwise, our margin is driven by the same things, right?

但除此之外，我們的利潤是由同樣的東西驅動的，對吧？

Our pricing is very robust.

我們的定價非常穩健。

We're being very disciplined.

我們非常有紀律。

The price that you've seen in the last couple of quarters is in a range that's very, very strong, so that's good.

你在過去幾個季度看到的價格處於非常非常強勁的範圍內，所以這很好。

We are still facing component headwinds.

我們仍然面臨組件逆風。

And even though it's less of a headwind, it is still higher year-over-year.

儘管阻力較小，但同比仍較高。

The prices are up, it's, again, just the slope is less.

價格上漲了，只是坡度變小了。

But that's part of what we see, both in Q4 and the guide.

但這是我們在第四季度和指南中看到的一部分。

And then everything else, it kind of balances out.

然後其他一切，它有點平衡。

So right now, this is kind of what we see.

所以現在，這就是我們所看到的。

We obviously are going to be driving for as much as we possibly can, but it's really the same dynamics.

顯然，我們將盡可能多地開車，但這實際上是相同的動力。

Paul Silverstein from Cowen.

來自 Cowen 的 Paul Silverstein。

A clarification question.

一個澄清問題。

Kelly, just in response -- your previous response, I trust you expect DRAM, at a minimum, to moderate come next year.

凱利，作為回應——你之前的回應，我相信你預計 DRAM 至少會在明年有所緩和。

And I'm wondering what -- if you have any thoughts on the impact.

我想知道 - 如果您對影響有任何想法。

And the larger question, I recognize this has been asked and answered in various forms.

而更大的問題，我知道這個問題已經以各種形式提出並得到了回答。

But Chuck and Kelly, my takeaway from your comments is that there's an awful lot of things going right.

但是查克和凱利，我從你們的評論中得出的結論是，有很多事情是正確的。

And my simple question is, how much of this do you attribute to the macro?

我的簡單問題是，您將其中多少歸因於宏？

And I recognize even in that portion, it's not simple in terms of different moving pieces globally.

而且我認識到，即使在這一部分，就全球不同的移動部分而言，這並不簡單。

But how much of the strength is macro-related?

但有多少強度與宏觀相關？

How much of it is better execution in various areas like campus switching, et cetera?

在校園交換等各個領域，有多少是更好的執行？

You want to take the first, the clarification on...

你想要第一個，澄清......

Yes, sure.

是的，當然。

So on the component stuff, yes, DRAM is loosening, though, again, as I said, the prices still are up, whether you look quarter-on-quarter or year-over-year.

因此，在組件方面，是的，DRAM 正在放鬆，但正如我所說，價格仍然上漲，無論是環比還是同比。

But we are optimistic that both on the demand side, which is also driving some of that pricing, we expect that to get better through '19.

但我們樂觀地認為，在需求方面，這也在推動部分定價，我們預計到 19 年情況會好轉。

And I don't know if you want to hit the other broader...

而且我不知道你是否想打另一個更廣泛的...

Paul, it's a virtually impossible question to answer, although I'm pragmatic enough to know that it's a combination of both.

保羅，這是一個幾乎不可能回答的問題，儘管我很務實地知道這是兩者的結合。

I will say that I think that it's -- clearly, the economy has been pretty consistent, and the markets have been positive.

我會說，我認為它 - 顯然，經濟一直非常穩定，市場一直很積極。

So that has certainly helped.

所以這肯定有幫助。

And I think correspondingly, this new architecture and the new technology that we brought out first -- about 4 quarters back, actually, right at the end of Q4 from a year earlier, has clearly been adopted at a record pace for us.

我認為相應地，我們首先推出的這種新架構和新技術 - 實際上是大約 4 個季度前，就在去年第四季度末，我們顯然已經以創紀錄的速度採用了。

So I could never possibly give you any sort of split on what that looks like.

所以我永遠不可能給你任何形式的分裂。

The best I can do is acknowledge that it's a bit of both.

我能做的最好的事情就是承認兩者兼而有之。

And there are a lot of things going right, right now.

現在有很多事情是正確的。

But there's also, as we said earlier, and Ittai asked the question, there's a lot of dynamics out there that we're watching very closely.

但是，正如我們之前所說，Ittai 提出了這個問題，我們正在密切關注很多動態。

So sorry, I can't give you a better, more specific answer.

很抱歉，我無法給您更好、更具體的答案。

But I think that's as honest as I can be.

但我認為這是我所能做到的最誠實的。

James Fish from Piper Jaffray.

來自 Piper Jaffray 的 James Fish。

It's been a while since we got a security metric update.

自從我們獲得安全指標更新以來已經有一段時間了。

Can you just kind of walk through some of the past metrics you've given or what you're willing to give today?

您能否簡單介紹一下您過去提供的一些指標或您今天願意提供的指標？

I know in the past, you've given deferred revenue growth as well as penetration of certain products like FireAMP.

我知道過去，你已經給出了遞延收入增長以及某些產品（如 FireAMP）的滲透率。

And then secondly, HyperFlex version 3.0 was released, I believe, recently.

其次，我相信最近發布了 HyperFlex 3.0 版。

Can we get an update as to kind of how we should think about the sizing of that business or any metrics around hyperconverged infrastructure and how it's competing against the Nutanixes of the world?

關於我們應該如何考慮該業務的規模或超融合基礎架構的任何指標，以及它如何與世界上的 Nutanix 競爭，我們能否獲得更新？

Sure.

當然。

So like I said in the prepared remarks, on the security side, they continue to have -- they're over -- 60% of their business is software.

因此，就像我在準備好的發言中所說的那樣，在安全方面，他們繼續擁有——他們已經結束了——60% 的業務是軟件。

And so obviously, they have a lot of their business going through deferred revenue, and they continue to grow in high double digits.

很明顯，他們的很多業務都在遞延收入中，而且他們繼續以高兩位數的速度增長。

So we feel good about that.

所以我們對此感覺很好。

They had a very strong Q4.

他們有一個非常強大的第四季度。

And like I said, from a revenue perspective, it was broad-based this quarter, driving that 12% up on revenue.

就像我說的，從收入的角度來看，本季度基礎廣泛，推動收入增長 12%。

It was across all of their subsegments.

它涵蓋了他們所有的細分市場。

So I'd say it's continuing to grow very quickly.

所以我想說它會繼續快速增長。

And with this addition of Duo, it really just rounds out the portfolio very well.

加上 Duo，它真的很好地完善了產品組合。

In terms of HyperFlex, I mean, that's growing very strongly for us.

就 HyperFlex 而言，我的意思是，這對我們來說增長非常強勁。

I think this new release has been well-received.

我認為這個新版本很受歡迎。

And again, we find ourselves in a lot of head-to-head deals and winning against Nutanix, which is obviously a really tough competitor out there.

再一次，我們發現自己參與了很多面對面的交易並戰勝了 Nutanix，這顯然是一個非常強大的競爭對手。

But we feel good about the offer we have.

但我們對我們的報價感到滿意。

Now it's really fairly small compared to the broader data center business that has all of our servers in there.

現在，與擁有我們所有服務器的更廣泛的數據中心業務相比，它確實相當小。

But we're pleased with how it's ramping and how we're competing.

但我們對它的發展方式和我們的競爭方式感到滿意。

I think that's exactly right.

我認為這是完全正確的。

Simon Leopold from Raymond James.

雷蒙·詹姆斯的西蒙·利奧波德。

I wanted to see if maybe we could talk a little bit longer-term trending, big picture around the concept of multi-cloud, which you talked about at Cisco Live!

我想看看我們是否可以談談您在 Cisco Live 上談到的多雲概念的長期趨勢和大局！

and on a number of other occasions.

以及其他一些場合。

Within the answer, I think what I'm looking for is how does this help the evolution and transformation?

在答案中，我認為我正在尋找的是這如何幫助進化和轉型？

And importantly, how does this help Cisco do more business with the web-scale customers?

重要的是，這如何幫助思科與網絡規模的客戶開展更多業務？

Yes, Simon, so it's a really good question.

是的，西蒙，所以這是一個非常好的問題。

And I think the key message for us that we're trying to get across is that this transition to this multi-cloud world actually is changing the way our customers look at building their IT infrastructure and how they secure it.

而且我認為我們正在努力傳達的關鍵信息是，這種向多雲世界的過渡實際上正在改變我們的客戶看待構建 IT 基礎設施以及保護基礎設施的方式。

So if you just think very simply that -- look back over the last 5 to 7 to 10 years, a great majority of the traffic in our enterprise customers' networks was terminating in their private data centers.

因此，如果您只是簡單地想一想——回顧過去 5 到 7 到 10 年，我們企業客戶網絡中的絕大部分流量都終止於他們的私有數據中心。

So networks were architected and security architectures were built to deal with that reality.

因此，網絡的架構和安全架構的構建都是為了應對這一現實。

Now we're moving into a world where there is still some percentage, depending on the customer, of their traffic that is obviously terminating in a private data center.

現在我們正在進入一個世界，在這個世界中，仍然有一定比例的流量明顯終止於私有數據中心，具體取決於客戶。

Then they have traffic terminating in SaaS applications, in multiple public cloud providers.

然後他們在多個公共雲提供商的 SaaS 應用程序中終止流量。

They have this whole IoT edge data aggregation issue.

他們有整個物聯網邊緣數據聚合問題。

So what's happened is the traffic flows, and the way data is moving across their networks and across their infrastructure, is much more complex than it was 5 to 7 years ago, where it was all very predictable, which leads us to, when you think about, ultimately, our customers are going to just need to build a world where you look at the user, you look at the application, you look at their policy and you look at the destination, and then you have technology in the network that actually provides policy routing, quality security in that world.

所以現在發生的事情是流量，以及數據在他們的網絡和基礎設施中移動的方式，比 5 到 7 年前複雜得多，在那裡一切都是非常可預測的，這讓我們想到，當你認為關於，最終，我們的客戶將只需要建立一個世界，在這個世界中，您可以查看用戶、應用程序、他們的政策和目的地，然後您在網絡中擁有實際的技術在那個世界提供策略路由、質量安全。

And that's the role that we're playing with our customers because they need to re-architect their networks to accommodate a massively diverse traffic flow scenario that they're going to deal with.

這就是我們與客戶一起扮演的角色，因為他們需要重新構建他們的網絡以適應他們將要處理的大量不同的流量場景。

So I'll stop with that right now, but that's why it's so important.

所以我現在就此打住，但這就是它如此重要的原因。

And you asked what does that do to our partnerships with the web-scale providers.

你問這對我們與網絡規模供應商的合作有何影響。

Well, they understand this dynamic that is going on.

好吧，他們了解正在發生的這種動態。

And so many of the -- you're seeing some early -- some of the early work we're doing with some of the web-scale providers to ensure that we have integrated hybrid cloud solutions so that we can provide security and policy, whether applications are in the private data center or in the public.

很多 - 你看到了一些早期 - 我們正在與一些網絡規模的供應商一起做的一些早期工作，以確保我們有集成的混合雲解決方案，以便我們能夠提供安全和政策，應用程序是在私有數據中心還是在公共數據中心。

They're interested in our ability to process data at the edge as customers are building out IoT applications.

他們對我們在客戶構建物聯網應用程序時在邊緣處理數據的能力感興趣。

They're interested in us helping define security architectures that make it simple for our customers to take advantage of their services.

他們對我們幫助定義安全架構感興趣，這些架構可以讓我們的客戶更輕鬆地利用他們的服務。

So it's emerging as a really attractive partnership because of the reality that everybody sees in the marketplace today.

因此，由於每個人都在當今市場上看到的現實，它正在成為一種非常有吸引力的合作夥伴關係。

And hopefully, that was clear.

希望這很清楚。

If not, we can have some folks talk to you afterwards.

如果沒有，我們可以讓一些人事後與您交談。

James Suva from Citigroup Global Markets.

花旗集團全球市場部的 James Suva。

A quick question, Chuck.

一個簡單的問題，查克。

Earlier in your remarks, you mentioned with service provider strength coming back that you don't believe it's 5G-related, that's more of a 2020 phenomenon.

在你之前的發言中，你提到服務提供商的實力回歸，你不認為它與 5G 相關，這更像是 2020 年的現象。

Can you give us a little bit about a history lesson here of back in 3G or 4G or 2G uptakes, was there a linear into-the-build that happened?

您能給我們講講 3G 或 4G 或 2G 吸收的歷史教訓嗎，是否發生了線性構建？

Is there a pause before the [positive event] happens?

[積極事件]發生之前是否有停頓？

Or is it just more of a steady as she goes, as we kind of look ahead more longer term, strategically to 5G impact to Cisco?

或者隨著我們更長遠地展望 5G 對思科的戰略影響，它是否會更加穩定？

Yes, Jim, it's a good question.

是的，吉姆，這是個好問題。

I think if you go back and look at the earlier transitions in this space, they have largely been around delivering, and I don't want to say incrementally better, but a better performance for mobile devices that are connected to the network already.

我想如果你回頭看看這個領域的早期轉變，它們主要是圍繞交付，我不想說逐漸變得更好，而是已經連接到網絡的移動設備的性能更好。

So when you go from 3G to 4G, you get better data performance.

因此，當您從 3G 轉到 4G 時，您會獲得更好的數據性能。

You're happier with your apps on your phones, et cetera.

您對手機上的應用程序等感到滿意。

This is a step-level difference because we're talking about the latency dynamics of 5G and the belief that this will actually enable them to deliver real-time business applications to small offices or remote branches over 5G networks.

這是一個階梯級的差異，因為我們正在談論 5G 的延遲動態，並且相信這實際上將使他們能夠通過 5G 網絡向小型辦公室或遠程分支機構提供實時業務應用程序。

That's a completely different dynamic.

這是一種完全不同的動態。

And so I would tell you that we're -- we don't know yet.

所以我會告訴你我們 - 我們還不知道。

But I think if you operate under the assumption that it lives up to its billing, then it is going to create a significant demand on the core networks of the service providers.

但我認為，如果你在假設它不辜負它的賬單的情況下運營，那麼它將對服務提供商的核心網絡產生巨大的需求。

And so I can't say that there's a huge historical example for us to learn from.

所以我不能說有一個巨大的歷史例子可供我們學習。

But I think what you're going to see is just between now and when they start building these things out, they're going to be working on design.

但我認為你將看到的是從現在到他們開始構建這些東西之間，他們將致力於設計。

And then we're just going to see them begin to gradually build out.

然後我們將看到它們開始逐漸建立起來。

As they open up a certain market, they'll build out bandwidth and backbone capacity.

當他們打開某個市場時，他們將建立帶寬和骨幹網容量。

And that's how we're thinking about it.

這就是我們考慮的方式。

And we'll be able to give you guys updates on upcoming quarters as to how we see this thing emerging.

我們能夠在即將到來的幾個季度向你們提供有關我們如何看待這件事出現的最新消息。

It's not going to happen overnight.

這不會在一夜之間發生。

Tal Liani from Bank of America Securities Merrill Lynch.

美國銀行證券美林證券的 Tal Liani。

I want to ask about the routing.

我想問一下路由。

Just again, it's repeatedly under pressure.

再一次，它反复承受壓力。

And you gave an answer before about Viptela.

您之前已經回答過關於 Viptela 的問題。

You're saying that it's going according to the plan.

你是說它正在按計劃進行。

I'm wondering if there's a link between the 2 yet or that the pressure in routing has to do with other things and not to do with SD-WAN.

我想知道這兩者之間是否存在聯繫，或者路由中的壓力與其他事情有關，而不是與 SD-WAN 有關。

That's the first question, kind of to understand -- or maybe you can provide a different explanation, to understand the pressure on routing and what's the outlook for recovery.

這是第一個問題，有點需要理解——或者您可以提供不同的解釋，以了解路由的壓力以及恢復的前景。

Or is it like Nokia and others are saying, that maybe there is a long-term pressure on this market?

還是像諾基亞等人說的，這個市場可能存在長期壓力？

Second question, just a follow-up on 606.

第二個問題，只是對 606 的跟進。

What's the impact on operating margin if you've provided this or you provide this information?

如果您提供此信息或您提供此信息，對營業利潤率有何影響？

Okay, Tal, let me make a comment on the first one, and then Kelly can add to it and then she can give the 606 answer as well.

好的，Tal，讓我對第一個問題發表評論，然後 Kelly 可以添加，然後她也可以給出 606 的答案。

I think when you look at our routing business, first of all -- Kelly, half of it, 50%, 60% of it is SP, right?

我想當你看我們的路由業務時，首先——凱利，其中一半，50%，60% 是 SP，對嗎？

I mean, it's -- so it's significantly impacted by the SP.

我的意思是，它 - 所以它受到 SP 的重大影響。

Some of the players you mentioned, they probably have a much higher percentage of their routing businesses coming from service providers, would be my guess.

你提到的一些玩家，他們可能有更高比例的路由業務來自服務提供商，這是我的猜測。

So that's just sort of couched in the discussion on 5G and everything that we've said so far about SP, I'd say, is the answer on that piece of it.

所以這只是在關於 5G 的討論中表達的，到目前為止我們所說的關於 SP 的一切，我想說，就是這一部分的答案。

From an enterprise perspective, Tal, I think over the last couple of years, we've just seen a classic architectural stall in the marketplace, as we've talked about historically when there's a big architectural transition.

從企業的角度來看，Tal，我認為在過去的幾年裡，我們剛剛在市場上看到了一個經典的架構攤位，正如我們在歷史上討論過的那樣，當架構發生重大轉變時。

And you said that we believe Viptela was going according to plan.

你說我們相信 Viptela 正在按計劃進行。

I think the way I would characterize it is we've begun to see customers actually move forward with deployments, but it's early.

我認為我描述它的方式是我們已經開始看到客戶實際上在部署方面取得進展，但現在還為時過早。

But we like where we are and we like what we see.

但我們喜歡我們所處的位置，我們喜歡我們所看到的。

So I think that -- I think we'll see the enterprise continue to improve relative to this architectural clarity.

所以我認為 - 我認為我們會看到企業相對於這種架構清晰度繼續改進。

And I'll let Kelly answer sort of how you think about the overall routing or the 606 question.

我會讓凱利回答您對整體路由或 606 問題的看法。

Yes, so on 606, Tal, so just to kind of, again, ground everybody on how we're impacted on 606, so one thing I will say is operationally, nothing has changed, right?

是的，在 606 上，Tal，再次讓每個人了解我們對 606 的影響，所以我要說的一件事是在操作上，沒有任何改變，對吧？

We've made no changes to our offers.

我們沒有對我們的報價進行任何更改。

We've made no changes to our contracts or any changes to our cash conversion cycle.

我們沒有對我們的合同進行任何更改，也沒有對我們的現金轉換週期進行任何更改。

So it is literally just an accounting change.

所以這實際上只是一個會計變更。

Now what the implications are to us is, like we've said, this is going to accelerate some of our term-based licenses.

現在對我們的影響是，就像我們說過的那樣，這將加速我們的一些基於期限的許可。

So we will have to write off some of our deferred revenue.

因此，我們將不得不註銷部分遞延收入。

We won't see that revenue, but we will offset that with acceleration of those offers when we book new orders and bill new orders.

我們不會看到該收入，但我們會在預訂新訂單和為新訂單開具賬單時通過加速提供這些優惠來抵消這一收入。

Net-net, we think it will be a net positive for us of approximately 1%.

淨值，我們認為這對我們來說將是大約 1% 的淨利好。

And so that's the impact on the revenue.

這就是對收入的影響。

It will fall through down through margin.

它會通過保證金下降。

So it's on operating margin, 0.5 point to 70 basis points, roughly, of goodness falling through there.

所以它是關於營業利潤率的，大約是 0.5 到 70 個基點，從那裡掉下來的善良。

And as we go into the new rev standard as part of our disclosures, we'll be laying out very clearly for everybody, since we have -- we're adopting the modified retrospective approach, we'll lay out very clearly the implications of the new accounting versus what it would have been under the old accounting.

當我們將新的 rev 標準作為我們披露的一部分時，我們將為每個人提供非常清楚的佈局，因為我們已經 - 我們正在採用修改後的追溯方法，我們將非常清楚地列出影響新會計與舊會計下的會計對比。

So hopefully, that answers your question.

希望這能回答您的問題。

George Notter, you may go ahead, from Jefferies LLC.

George Notter，你可以繼續，來自 Jefferies LLC。

I guess, Kelly, I was curious about the revenue headwinds that you're seeing from the subscription transition.

我想，凱利，我很好奇你從訂閱過渡中看到的收入逆風。

You've talked about that in the past.

你過去曾談過這個。

I'm just curious about what that might have looked like in the July quarter.

我只是想知道在 7 月這個季度會是什麼樣子。

And then what do you think that will look like for the October quarter?

然後你認為十月季度會是什麼樣子？

Yes, no, that's a great question, George.

是的，不，這是一個很好的問題，喬治。

So there's good news.

所以有一個好消息。

There's good news there, I would say.

我會說那裡有好消息。

So like we anticipated, as we are so rapidly ramping the Cat 9K and as we are blowing out DNA across not only that, but also our Viptela offerings and across wireless, the revenue headwind was getting more closer to 2.5 to 3 points.

因此，正如我們預期的那樣，由於我們如此迅速地提升 Cat 9K，並且我們不僅在 9K 上，而且在我們的 Viptela 產品和無線上都在吹噓 DNA，收入逆風越來越接近 2.5 到 3 個百分點。

Now the good news on this is with the new revenue standard going forward, because it's accelerating some of these offers that we did have previously defer, that headwind will become less of a headwind, okay?

現在這方面的好消息是隨著新的收入標準的推進，因為它正在加速我們之前推遲的一些優惠，逆風將變得不那麼逆風，好嗎？

So as opposed to the 2.5 to 3 under current accounting standards, that will be much less, closer to like 1.5 point or so, if I had to guess roughly.

因此，與現行會計標準下的 2.5 比 3 相比，如果我不得不粗略地猜測的話，那將少得多，接近 1.5 點左右。

And again, this will all flush out as we go through it, but it will become less of a headwind because we have such a big portion of things that we will now be recognizing upfront.

再一次，當我們經歷它時，這一切都會消失，但它會變得不那麼不利，因為我們有很大一部分事情我們現在會提前認識到。

You said that it was a 1% increase on the other side...

你說對面是1%的漲幅。。。

On the revenue, exactly, exactly.

關於收入，完全正確。

So mathematically, it would become a down a point.

所以在數學上，它會成為一個下降點。

The good thing about this accounting standard is it does normalize some of the -- some of the natural headwinds we've had on revenue and margins because of it is now going to kind of come back and benefit us.

這個會計準則的好處是它確實規範了一些 - 我們在收入和利潤方面遇到的一些自然逆風，因為它現在會回來並使我們受益。

All right.

好的。

I want to -- I think that was the last question, Marilyn?

我想——我想那是最後一個問題，瑪麗蓮？

So if I could, just thank everybody for spending time with us today.

所以，如果可以的話，感謝大家今天花時間和我們在一起。

Thanks for the questions and the dialogue.

感謝您的提問和對話。

And Marilyn, I'll turn it back over to you.

瑪麗蓮，我會把它還給你。

Thanks, Chuck, and thanks, everyone.

謝謝，查克，謝謝大家。

Cisco's next quarterly earnings conference call, which will reflect our fiscal 2019 first quarter earnings results, will be on Wednesday, November 14, 2018, at 1:30 p.m.

思科下一次季度收益電話會議將於 2018 年 11 月 14 日星期三下午 1:30 召開，屆時將反映我們 2019 財年第一季度的收益結果。

Pacific Time, 4:30 p.m.

太平洋時間下午 4:30

Eastern Time.

東部時間。

Again, I'd like to remind the audience that in light of Regulation FD, Cisco's policy is not to comment on its financial guidance during the quarter unless it is done through an explicit public disclosure.

再次，我想提醒聽眾，根據 FD 條例，思科的政策是不評論其本季度的財務指導，除非通過明確的公開披露來完成。

We now plan to close the call.

我們現在計劃結束通話。

If you have any further questions, please feel free to contact Cisco's Investor Relations department, and we thank you very much for joining the call today.

如果您有任何其他問題，請隨時聯繫思科的投資者關係部門，我們非常感謝您今天加入電話會議。

Thank you for participating on today's conference call.

感謝您參加今天的電話會議。

If you would like to listen to the call in its entirety, you may call (866) 417-5767.

如果您想完整收聽電話，可以致電 (866) 417-5767。

For participants dialing from outside the U.S., please dial (203) 369-0735.

對於來自美國境外的參與者，請撥打 (203) 369-0735。

This concludes today's call.

今天的電話會議到此結束。

You may disconnect at this time.

此時您可以斷開連接。