Credit Suisse Group AG (CS) 2021 Q4 法說會逐字稿

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  • Operator

    Operator

  • Good morning. This is the conference operator. Welcome, and thank you for joining Credit Suisse Fourth Quarter and Full Year 2021 Results Conference Call for Analysts and Investors. (Operator Instructions) The conference is recorded. (Operator Instructions) I will now turn the conference over to Kinner Lakhani, Head of Investor Relations, and Group Strategy and Development. Please go ahead, Kinner.

    早上好。這是會議接線員。歡迎並感謝您參加瑞士信貸分析師和投資者 2021 年第四季度和全年業績電話會議。 (操作員說明)會議被錄製。 (操作員說明)我現在將會議轉交給投資者關係和集團戰略與發展主管 Kinner Lakhani。請繼續,金納。

  • Kinner R. Lakhani - Head of IR and Head of Group Strategy & Development

    Kinner R. Lakhani - Head of IR and Head of Group Strategy & Development

  • Thank you, Annette. Good morning, everyone. Thank you for joining us. Before we begin, let me remind you of the important cautionary statements on Slides 2 and 3, including in relation to forward-looking statements, non-GAAP financial measures and Basel III disclosures.

    謝謝你,安妮特。大家,早安。感謝您加入我們。在開始之前,讓我提醒您幻燈片 2 和 3 中的重要警示性聲明,包括與前瞻性聲明、非公認會計原則財務指標和巴塞爾協議 III 披露有關的聲明。

  • For a detailed discussion of our results, we refer you to the Credit Suisse fourth quarter 2021 earnings release published this morning.

    如需詳細討論我們的業績,請參閱今天上午發布的瑞士信貸 2021 年第四季度財報。

  • Let me remind you that our 2021 Annual Report and audited financial statements for the year will be published on or around March 10, 2022. I will now hand over to our Group CEO, Thomas Gottstein; and our Group CFO, David Mathers, who will run through the numbers.

    我提醒您,我們的 2021 年年度報告和本年度經審計的財務報表將於 2022 年 3 月 10 日或前後發布。我現在將移交給我們的集團首席執行官 Thomas Gottstein;以及我們的集團首席財務官 David Mathers,他將逐一分析這些數字。

  • Thomas P. Gottstein - Member of the Executive Board & CEO

    Thomas P. Gottstein - Member of the Executive Board & CEO

  • Thank you, Kinner. And thank you all for joining our fourth quarter and full year 2021 results presentation. We greatly appreciate your participation and engagement.

    謝謝你,金納。並感謝大家參加我們的第四季度和 2021 年全年業績報告。我們非常感謝您的參與和參與。

  • Let me be upfront and begin with some comments about 2021 and more recent events. Despite a very supportive market environment and strong underlying performances in most of our businesses, especially during the first 9 months of 2021, last year was very challenging for Credit Suisse in the context of the supply chain finance funds and the Archegos matters.

    讓我先說一些關於 2021 年和最近發生的事件的評論。儘管市場環境非常有利,我們的大多數業務(尤其是 2021 年前 9 個月)的基本業績都非常強勁,但在供應鏈金融基金和 Archegos 事務的背景下,去年對瑞士信貸來說非常具有挑戰性。

  • The fourth quarter was difficult as well as we flagged in our trading update in January. David and I will walk you through all the numbers over the course of today's presentation.

    第四季度很艱難,正如我們在一月份的交易更新中指出的那樣。大衛和我將在今天的演示過程中向您介紹所有數字。

  • Our results were significantly affected by goodwill impairment and litigation provisions. In addition, they were impacted by lower transaction-based revenues and reflected more normal trading conditions, client deleveraging and a significant reduction of our overall risk appetite in 2021.

    我們的業績受到商譽減值和訴訟準備金的顯著影響。此外,它們受到基於交易的收入下降的影響,反映了更正常的交易條件、客戶去槓桿化以及我們在 2021 年的整體風險偏好顯著降低。

  • More generally, we were a bank which just embarked on a new organizational structure and have become very inward focused, especially in December. This all negatively impacted our franchise momentum. At the same time, we took a number of decisive steps last year to position ourselves for sustainable growth. And let me please highlight the following.

    更一般地說,我們是一家剛剛開始建立新組織結構並變得非常專注於內部的銀行,尤其是在 12 月份。這一切都對我們的特許經營勢頭產生了負面影響。與此同時,我們去年採取了一些決定性的步驟來為可持續增長做好準備。讓我強調以下幾點。

  • Firstly, we strengthened our capital position and substantially reduced our risk positions. Secondly, we strengthened risk and compliance teams, systems and processes and underwent a comprehensive risk review across the entire group, which was completed in the fourth quarter; and thirdly, we strengthened our leadership in the investment bank, in asset management, in risk, in compliance, in technology and operations, in wealth management, as well as most recently in human resources. This will not be a quick fix, and we expect 2022 will be a transition year. But we have made clear progress in creating the conditions for a much more stable and predictable bank. All of this in line with our announcements on the 4th of November.

    一是強化資本實力,大幅降低風險頭寸。二是強化風險合規團隊、制度和流程,對全集團進行全面的風險審查,四季度完成;第三,我們加強了在投資銀行、資產管理、風險、合規、技術和運營、財富管理以及最近在人力資源方面的領先地位。這不會是一個快速的解決方案,我們預計 2022 年將是一個過渡年。但我們在為更加穩定和可預測的銀行創造條件方面取得了明顯進展。所有這些都與我們在 11 月 4 日的公告一致。

  • We have 3 key priorities for 2022. First, is to execute with discipline the detailed group strategy and 3-year financial plan, which we presented at our Investor Day on the 4th of November. The Board of Directors under Axel Lehmann's leadership along with the Executive Board under my leadership, fully see eye to eye when it comes to our shared commitment to the new strategy of strengthening the core, simplifying the organization and investing for growth.

    我們在 2022 年有 3 個關鍵優先事項。首先,是嚴格執行詳細的集團戰略和 3 年財務計劃,我們在 11 月 4 日的投資者日上提出了這些計劃。在阿克塞爾·萊曼 (Axel Lehmann) 領導下的董事會以及我領導下的執行董事會,在我們對加強核心、簡化組織和投資以促進增長的新戰略的共同承諾方面,完全一致。

  • Second, we will continue to improve risk and compliance with an emphasis on risk culture, while it's not losing our client focus and entrepreneurial spirit that has been the hallmark of Credit Suisse since its founding more than 165 years ago.

    其次,我們將繼續提高風險和合規性,同時強調風險文化,同時不會失去自 165 多年前瑞士信貸成立以來一直以客戶為中心和企業精神的特點。

  • Third, we aim to reestablish franchise momentum grounded in the positive basis for growth in our 4 divisions with a strong regional overlay and supported by a disciplined approach to costs.

    第三,我們的目標是重建特許經營勢頭,這基於我們 4 個部門的積極增長基礎,具有強大的區域覆蓋率,並以嚴格的成本方法為支持。

  • Running our business with a strong balance sheet and with a diligent execution of our strategy is an absolute focus of my Executive Board.

    以強大的資產負債表和勤勉地執行我們的戰略來經營我們的業務是我執行董事會的絕對重點。

  • Finally, the root of my confidence for our future lies with our employees. And I want to thank them again for their incredibly hard work and dedication during the last 12 months. I have no doubt that with the commitment of each employee, we will build a stronger bank for our clients, shareholders and other stakeholders.

    最後,我對我們未來充滿信心的根源在於我們的員工。我要再次感謝他們在過去 12 個月中的辛勤工作和奉獻精神。我毫不懷疑,在每位員工的承諾下,我們將為我們的客戶、股東和其他利益相關者建立一個更強大的銀行。

  • With that, let me turn to the slides, starting with our key points on Page 4.

    有了這個,讓我轉向幻燈片,從第 4 頁的關鍵點開始。

  • For the fourth quarter of 2021, we recorded a pretax loss of CHF 1.6 billion. Adjusted pretax income excluding significant items was CHF 0.3 billion. Our fourth quarter reported results were significantly impacted by the goodwill impairment in our investment bank relating to the acquisition of DLJ in 2000 and legacy litigation provisions. For the full year, we recorded a pretax loss of CHF 0.5 billion, primarily driven by the Archegos loss, the goodwill impairment and the major litigation provisions, together totaling CHF 7.6 billion. Adjusted pretax income excluding significant items and Archegos was CHF 6.6 billion in 2021.

    2021 年第四季度,我們錄得 16 億瑞士法郎的稅前虧損。不包括重大項目的調整後稅前收入為 3 億瑞士法郎。我們第四季度報告的業績受到與 2000 年收購 DLJ 相關的投資銀行商譽減值和遺留訴訟條款的重大影響。全年,我們錄得 5 億瑞士法郎的稅前虧損,主要受 Archegos 虧損、商譽減值和重大訴訟準備金的推動,總計 76 億瑞士法郎。 2021 年,不包括重大項目和 Archegos 的調整後稅前收入為 66 億瑞士法郎。

  • At the same time, we maintained our strong capital position with a CET1 ratio of 14.4% and a CET1 leverage ratio of 4.4%, both in line with our ambition to run the bank with a strong capital base going forward. The Board will propose a dividend of CHF 0.10 per share for 2021, subject to AGM approval.

    同時,我們保持穩健的資本狀況,CET1 比率為 14.4%,CET1 槓桿比率為 4.4%,符合我們未來以強大資本基礎經營銀行的雄心。董事會將提議派發 2021 年每股 0.10 瑞士法郎的股息,但須經年度股東大會批准。

  • We have already made considerable progress implementing our strategy, which includes the creation of a unified Wealth Management division, a global Investment Bank and a centralized Chief Technology and Operations Organization.

    我們已經在實施我們的戰略方面取得了相當大的進展,其中包括創建一個統一的財富管理部門、一個全球投資銀行和一個集中的首席技術和運營組織。

  • We grew our Wealth Management recurring commissions and fees, supported by an increase in mandate penetration and in assets under management. We progressed our plans to make significant increases in Relationship Manager hiring, including a roughly 13% increase in APAC Relationship Managers in 2021.

    在授權滲透率和管理資產增加的支持下,我們增加了財富管理的經常性佣金和費用。我們推進了計劃,以顯著增加客戶關係經理的招聘人數,其中包括 2021 年亞太地區客戶關係經理的人數增加約 13%。

  • As part of our ambition to generate CHF 1 million to CHF 1.5 billion in annual structural cost savings by 2024 to be invested for growth, we announced a third-party agreement to deliver procurement savings. The Investment Bank already released USD 2 billion of allocated capital versus the end of 2020. That marked significant progress towards our ambition to release more than USD 3 billion over 2021 and 2022. In other words, we have achieved already 2/3 of the investment bank capital release ambition. We significantly reduced prime chargeable balances by 66%. These measures underscore our commitment to implementing our strategy.

    作為我們到 2024 年每年節省 100 萬至 15 億瑞士法郎的結構性成本以用於增長的雄心的一部分,我們宣布了一項第三方協議,以節省採購費用。與 2020 年底相比,投資銀行已經釋放了 20 億美元的分配資本。這標誌著我們朝著在 2021 年和 2022 年釋放超過 30 億美元的目標取得了重大進展。換句話說,我們已經實現了 2/3 的投資銀行資本釋放雄心。我們將主要應課稅餘額顯著減少了 66%。這些措施強調了我們對實施戰略的承諾。

  • Next slide, please. Here, you see historical reported and adjusted data and the factors that weighed on both sets of results for the fourth quarter. As I already mentioned, and as David will go into more detail about later on.

    請下一張幻燈片。在這裡,您可以看到歷史報告和調整後的數據,以及影響第四季度兩組結果的因素。正如我已經提到的,正如大衛稍後將詳細介紹的那樣。

  • Next slide, please. We are on Page 6. As mentioned before, 2021 was a very challenging year with our reported results impacted by Archegos, the DLJ goodwill impairment and litigation provisions. At the same time, our underlying performance demonstrated the strength of our franchises. We saw record underlying pretax income in the Swiss Universal Bank and in APAC, reflecting our strength in both our home market and a key growth engine for the global economy, namely APAC.

    請下一張幻燈片。我們在第 6 頁。如前所述,2021 年是非常具有挑戰性的一年,我們報告的業績受到 Archegos、DLJ 商譽減值和訴訟條款的影響。與此同時,我們的基本表現證明了我們特許經營的實力。我們在瑞士環球銀行和亞太地區看到了創紀錄的基本稅前收入,反映了我們在本土市場和全球經濟關鍵增長引擎(即亞太地區)的實力。

  • The investment bank posted record revenues across a number of key products, and there was a strong performance in asset management. This provides a great platform to continue executing on our strategy. Finally, the level of provisions for credit losses reflects the strong underlying quality of our lending book. In the supplement, you can see that our provision for credit losses excluding Archegos have remained well controlled.

    投行多項重點產品收入創歷史新高,資產管理業務表現強勁。這為繼續執行我們的戰略提供了一個很好的平台。最後,信用損失準備金的水平反映了我們貸款賬簿的強大基礎質量。在補充文件中,您可以看到我們對不包括 Archegos 的信用損失的撥備保持良好控制。

  • Slide 7. I would like to turn to the supply chain finance fund matter. The Board-commissioned report has been completed and shared with FINMA. And as the recovery process is ongoing, there is no intention by the Board to publish the report. As of the end of 2021, we have recorded 72% of net asset value. And we are taking every possible measure to maximize recovery for investors, including pursuing borrowers and related parties.

    幻燈片 7. 我想談談供應鏈金融基金的問題。董事會委託的報告已完成並與 FINMA 共享。由於恢復過程正在進行中,董事會無意發布該報告。截至 2021 年底,我們記錄了資產淨值的 72%。我們正在採取一切可能的措施,以最大限度地為投資者帶來復甦,包括追捕借款人和相關方。

  • We filed 5 insurance claims with corresponding CSAM exposure of approximately USD 1.2 billion as of the end of 2021.

    截至 2021 年底,我們提交了 5 起保險索賠,相應的 CSAM 風險敞口約為 12 億美元。

  • Let me now turn to the decisive steps we have taken to align risk with our strategy, please. Slide 8. Management and the Board of Directors spent a great deal of time and energy in 2021 strengthening our risk and compliance efforts, including in our first line of defense. We are committed to continuing this process under the guidance of our new Chief Risk Officer, David Wildermuth, and our Chief Compliance Officer, Rafael Lopez, as well as under the new leadership in Asset Management, the Investment Bank and Wealth Management. We are confident that the changes we are making across our risk and compliance functions will support our growth ambitions in the strategic plan. You can see the steps we have taken at the top of the slide as regards our leadership and governance, our risk appetite and our risk culture.

    現在讓我談談我們為使風險與我們的戰略保持一致而採取的決定性步驟。幻燈片 8. 管理層和董事會在 2021 年花費了大量時間和精力來加強我們的風險和合規工作,包括我們的第一道防線。我們致力於在新任首席風險官 David Wildermuth 和首席合規官 Rafael Lopez 的指導下,以及在資產管理、投資銀行和財富管理部門的新領導下繼續這一進程。我們相信,我們在風險和合規職能方面所做的改變將支持我們在戰略計劃中的增長雄心。您可以在幻燈片頂部看到我們在領導力和治理、風險偏好和風險文化方面所採取的步驟。

  • Next slide, please. Here, you see the substantial risk reduction we achieved since the first quarter of 2021 at the group level as well as in Investment Bank and across our Wealth Management businesses. Our absolute and relative performance in 2021 should be seen in this context versus our peers. Over the course of 2022, we expect to complete the exit of substantially all of our prime services businesses and progressively deploy capital into Wealth Management and other core businesses in all of our 4 divisions.

    請下一張幻燈片。在這裡,您可以看到自 2021 年第一季度以來,我們在集團層面以及投資銀行和我們的財富管理業務中實現的風險大幅降低。我們在 2021 年的絕對和相對錶現應該在這種情況下與我們的同行相比。在 2022 年期間,我們預計將完成幾乎所有主要服務業務的退出,並逐步將資本部署到我們所有 4 個部門的財富管理和其他核心業務。

  • Next page, please. This slide shows the steps we have taken quarter-by-quarter to strengthen our capital position both in terms of our CET1 ratio as well as our Tier 1 leverage ratio. It also shows that these steps have put us at the top in terms of Tier 1 leverage and in the top half of CET1 capital versus our global peers. Our balance sheet puts us in an excellent position to execute our strategy, which I will turn to in the coming slides.

    下一頁,請。這張幻燈片顯示了我們在 CET1 比率和一級槓桿比率方面每季度採取的措施來加強我們的資本狀況。它還表明,這些步驟使我們在一級槓桿和 CET1 資本的上半部分與我們的全球同行相比處於領先地位。我們的資產負債表使我們處於執行我們戰略的絕佳位置,我將在接下來的幻燈片中談到這一點。

  • Next page, please. We are diligently executing our 3-pillar strategy. We are strengthening our balance sheet and strengthening our business model by shifting capital to what we see as the most value-creating parts of our businesses. These aspirations include redeploying approximately CHF 3 billion of capital into Wealth Management over the next 3 years. We are simplifying our organization by driving structural cost discipline. We are investing for growth in clients, businesses, talent and technology, including our ambition to progressively add approximately 500 Relationship Managers over the next 3 years as market conditions allow.

    下一頁,請。我們正在努力執行我們的三大支柱戰略。我們正在通過將資本轉移到我們認為業務中最具價值創造的部分來加強我們的資產負債表並加強我們的業務模式。這些願望包括在未來 3 年內將大約 30 億瑞士法郎的資本重新部署到財富管理。我們通過推動結構成本紀律來簡化我們的組織。我們正在為客戶、業務、人才和技術的增長進行投資,包括我們在未來 3 年內在市場條件允許的情況下逐步增加約 500 名客戶關係經理的雄心。

  • We have already made good progress toward that objective. This goes hand-in-hand with corresponding first and second line of defense investments. Underlying these pillars is strong risk management and a diverse and inclusive culture that builds on our entrepreneurial spirit.

    我們已經在實現這一目標方面取得了良好進展。這與相應的第一道和第二道防線投資密切相關。這些支柱的基礎是強大的風險管理和建立在我們創業精神之上的多元化和包容性文化。

  • Next page, please. As I said at the Investor Day, structure follows strategy. I firmly believe we have the right team in place to implement our strategy together. The structure of the Executive Board has changed significantly with 7 new members since the first quarter of 2021. In the second quarter of 2021, Christian Meissner and Ulrich Körner joined us to run the Investment Bank and the Asset Management divisions, respectively. Chief Compliance Officer, Rafael Lopez Lorenzo started in the fourth quarter. Our new Chief Technology and Operations Officer, Joanne Hannaford; our new Chief Risk Officer, David Wildermuth; and our new CEO, Wealth Management, Francesco De Ferrari, all started on the 1st of January. Finally, we welcome Christine Graeff as our new Head of Human Resources, who took over from Antoinette Poschung as per the 1st of February.

    下一頁,請。正如我在投資者日所說,結構遵循戰略。我堅信我們擁有合適的團隊來共同實施我們的戰略。自 2021 年第一季度以來,執行委員會的結構發生了重大變化,新增了 7 名成員。2021 年第二季度,Christian Meissner 和 Ulrich Körner 加入我們,分別管理投資銀行和資產管理部門。首席合規官 Rafael Lopez Lorenzo 於第四季度開始工作。我們新任首席技術和運營官 Joanne Hannaford;我們的新首席風險官 David Wildermuth;以及我們的新任首席執行官財富管理公司 Francesco De Ferrari 於 1 月 1 日開始工作。最後,我們歡迎 Christine Graeff 成為我們新的人力資源主管,她於 2 月 1 日接替 Antoinette Poschung。

  • Slide 13, please. We are executing our 3-pillar strategy across our 4 divisions. Let me call out just a few of them. We have invested for growth in Wealth Management with more than CHF 600 million in investments in digitalization, automation and Relationship Manager hires in 2021. We have simplified the Investment Bank through global integration. We have strengthened the Swiss Bank through stronger collaboration between the corporate bank and private and institutional businesses, generating CHF 10 billion client referral volume in 2021. And in terms of next steps for Wealth Management, we aim to achieve disciplined lending growth. In the Investment Bank, we plan to build out our M&A advisory and capital markets businesses, including our Investment Banking advisory offering for entrepreneurs and family offices in Wealth Management. We are targeting to more than double CSX clients in 2022 in the Swiss Bank. We aim to enhance the Asset Management coverage model for Wealth Management and institutional clients, as well as third-party clients.

    請幻燈片 13。我們正在我們的 4 個部門執行我們的 3 支柱戰略。讓我只說幾個。 2021 年,我們在財富管理方面的投資超過 6 億瑞士法郎,用於數字化、自動化和客戶關係經理招聘。我們通過全球整合簡化了投資銀行。我們通過加強企業銀行與私人和機構業務之間的合作來加強瑞士銀行,在 2021 年產生 100 億瑞士法郎的客戶推薦量。在財富管理的下一步方面,我們的目標是實現有紀律的貸款增長。在投資銀行,我們計劃建立我們的併購諮詢和資本市場業務,包括我們為企業家和財富管理家族辦公室提供的投資銀行諮詢服務。我們的目標是在 2022 年將瑞士銀行的 CSX 客戶數量增加一倍以上。我們旨在增強財富管理和機構客戶以及第三方客戶的資產管理覆蓋模式。

  • Next page, please. Sustainability is a priority of mine, and it is of the utmost importance to infuse it across our divisions and regions. We made significant progress executing our 5-pillar strategy in 2021. Looking forward, I'm delighted that Emma Crystal will become our Chief Sustainability Officer effective 1st of April, reporting directly to me. Emma brings extensive wealth management and sustainability expertise that will enable her to effectively partner with all of our divisions and regions as we deploy our sustainability product shelf and financing to clients.

    下一頁,請。可持續發展是我的首要任務,將其融入我們的部門和地區至關重要。我們在 2021 年的 5 支柱戰略實施方面取得了重大進展。展望未來,我很高興 Emma Crystal 將於 4 月 1 日成為我們的首席可持續發展官,直接向我匯報。 Emma 帶來了廣泛的財富管理和可持續發展專業知識,這將使她能夠在我們為客戶部署可持續發展產品貨架和融資時與我們所有的部門和地區有效地合作。

  • On the right, you see the significant increase in sustainable assets under management that we achieved in 2021. We believe sustainability is a vital part of our value proposition and the right thing to do for our economies and societies.

    在右側,您可以看到我們在 2021 年實現管理的可持續資產顯著增加。我們相信可持續發展是我們價值主張的重要組成部分,也是為我們的經濟和社會做的正確事情。

  • Next slide, please. Achieving structural cost savings is central to our strategy as it will help fund our growth initiatives. On the left side of the slide, you can see the 4 main drivers of savings and then our step-by-step approach to reaching our ambition by 2024.

    請下一張幻燈片。實現結構性成本節約是我們戰略的核心,因為它將有助於為我們的增長計劃提供資金。在幻燈片的左側,您可以看到 4 個主要的儲蓄驅動因素,然後是我們在 2024 年實現雄心的分步方法。

  • These include: Firstly, synergies from Unified Wealth Management and globally integrated Investment Bank divisions; secondly, procurement centralization and other centralizations; Thirdly, simplification of booking model and reduction of legal entities. And I would note that we have already seen a greater than 20% reduction in CS operating legal entities since 2018; and finally, improved automation and digitalization.

    其中包括:首先,統一財富管理和全球一體化投資銀行部門的協同作用;其次,採購集中和其他集中;三是簡化登記模式,減少法人實體。我要指出的是,自 2018 年以來,我們已經看到 CS 運營法人實體減少了 20% 以上;最後,改進自動化和數字化。

  • Next page, please. Our strategy pillars are being leveraged to progress our digital transformation to drive change, growth and user experience in a modern world. These include strengthening our cybersecurity infrastructure and simplifying our business platforms. We are investing in our digitally enabled client experience to sharpen our high-touch versus high-tech segments.

    下一頁,請。我們正在利用我們的戰略支柱來推進我們的數字化轉型,以推動現代世界的變革、增長和用戶體驗。其中包括加強我們的網絡安全基礎設施和簡化我們的業務平台。我們正在投資於我們的數字化客戶體驗,以加強我們的高接觸與高科技細分市場。

  • As you can see on the right of the slide, we are running a 50-50 split in terms of using our current technology spending to both run the bank and change it. Our experienced global staff gives us a mature presence in high-value locations.

    正如您在幻燈片右側看到的那樣,在使用我們當前的技術支出來運營和改變銀行方面,我們正在以 50-50 的比例進行分配。我們經驗豐富的全球員工使我們在高價值地區擁有成熟的存在。

  • Next page, please. Today, we are reaffirming the financial aspirations outlined at the Investor Day, and I have outlined our step-by-step approach to delivering them. We aim to release more than $3 billion of Investment Bank capital over 2021 to 2022 and have already achieved 2/3 of that and to make targeted investments in the Investment Bank from 2023 onwards.

    下一頁,請。今天,我們重申在投資者日概述的財務願望,我概述了我們逐步實現這些目標的方法。我們的目標是在 2021 年至 2022 年期間釋放超過 30 億美元的投資銀行資本,並且已經實現了其中的 2/3,並從 2023 年起對投資銀行進行有針對性的投資。

  • We plan to invest approximately CHF 3 billion of capital into Wealth Management by 2024. And increase capital allocated into Wealth Management, the Swiss Bank and Asset Management divisions to 2x the Investment Bank allocated capital in 2022 and beyond.

    我們計劃到 2024 年向財富管理部門投資約 30 億瑞士法郎。並在 2022 年及以後將分配給財富管理、瑞士銀行和資產管理部門的資本增加到投資銀行分配資本的 2 倍。

  • We have clear return on regulatory capital aspirations for each division. We expect our strategy to drive growth and to improve our cost-to-income ratio by 2024 to around 70% while maintaining a strong balance sheet to support growth. Our ambition is to achieve a reported group return on tangible equity of greater than 10% by 2024. These aspirations are grounded in the continued implementation of our transformative agenda, building on a culture that drives accountability, diversity and excellence.

    我們對每個部門的監管資本期望都有明確的回報。我們預計我們的戰略將推動增長,到 2024 年將我們的成本收入比提高到 70% 左右,同時保持強勁的資產負債表以支持增長。我們的目標是到 2024 年實現報告的集團有形資產回報率超過 10%。這些願望的基礎是繼續實施我們的變革議程,建立在推動問責制、多樣性和卓越的文化之上。

  • The successful execution of our strategy and achievements of the aspirations I have set out should deliver improving returns and value to our shareholders while rebuilding a bank that we can all be proud of and with a strong risk culture and a strong balance sheet.

    成功執行我們的戰略並實現我所提出的願望,應該會為我們的股東帶來更高的回報和價值,同時重建一家我們都可以引以為豪的銀行,並擁有強大的風險文化和強大的資產負債表。

  • I would like to hand over now to David, who will go over the results in greater detail. I look forward to your questions later on. Thank you.

    我現在想把結果交給大衛,他會更詳細地檢查結果。期待您稍後的提問。謝謝你。

  • David R. Mathers - CFO & Member of the Executive Board

    David R. Mathers - CFO & Member of the Executive Board

  • Thank you, Thomas, and good morning to everybody. So just as usual, I'd like to go through the key financials and then give some more details on our performance at a divisional level.

    謝謝你,托馬斯,大家早上好。因此,就像往常一樣,我想查看關鍵財務數據,然後詳細介紹我們在部門層面的表現。

  • First, I'd just like to remind you that the fourth quarter of 2021 is the last time that we'll be reporting under our old divisional structure. As you know, we implemented the new organizational structure with effect from the 1st of January of this year. And I've just included on the slide here a quick reminder what these changes look like, together with the key dates over the coming months.

    首先,我想提醒您,2021 年第四季度是我們最後一次在舊的部門結構下進行報告。如您所知,我們從今年 1 月 1 日起實施了新的組織結構。我剛剛在幻燈片中快速提醒了這些變化是什麼樣的,以及未來幾個月的關鍵日期。

  • Now just in particular, I think you should note that we'll be publishing the restated numbers for our historic time series on the morning of April 7, so a couple of months' time.

    現在特別是,我認為您應該注意,我們將在 4 月 7 日上午發布我們歷史時間序列的重述數字,因此需要幾個月的時間。

  • Now let's just go to a summary, please, of the group results. Now I think you saw our trading update, which we put out on January 25, and that highlighted a number of key themes. Firstly, clearly, the impairment of the goodwill, primarily in respect of the DLJ acquisition back in 2000, totaling approximately CHF 1.6 billion that I mentioned last November.

    現在讓我們來總結一下小組結果。現在我想你看到了我們在 1 月 25 日發布的交易更新,其中突出了一些關鍵主題。首先,很明顯,商譽的減值,主要是在 2000 年收購 DLJ,我去年 11 月提到的總額約為 16 億瑞士法郎。

  • Second, the increase in litigation provisions that we expected for the quarter, which have been incurred in respect of a number of cases where the group has more proactively pursued settlements. And just to be clear, that increase primarily relates to legacy matters from our Investment Banking business. And then therefore, we booked either in the Investment Banking division or to the extent they're handled by the SRU and now the ARU in the corporate center.

    其次,本季度我們預期的訴訟準備金增加,這是由於集團更積極地尋求和解的一些案件造成的。需要明確的是,這種增長主要與我們投資銀行業務的遺留問題有關。因此,我們要么在投資銀行部門預訂,要么在由 SRU 處理的範圍內預訂,現在是在企業中心的 ARU。

  • Third, I think I mentioned on the 25th that we disclosed the benefit that we've taken in the quarter from real estate gains. And you may recall that -- so that was part of the strategy that we announced in response to the Archegos matter back in the second quarter of last year. And I'll cover these points in more detail as we go through the presentation.

    第三,我想我在 25 日提到過,我們披露了我們在本季度從房地產收益中獲得的收益。你可能還記得 - 所以這是我們在去年第二季度為回應 Archegos 事件而宣布的戰略的一部分。在我們進行演示時,我將更詳細地介紹這些要點。

  • Now just turning through the key reported numbers. Revenues for the quarter was CHF 4.58 billion, that's 12% lower year-on-year. And that was primarily driven by a fall in revenues in the Investment Bank, which were 31% lower year-on-year at USD 1.6 billion. Our Wealth Management-related revenues were 2% higher at CHF 3.2 billion, and that was driven by the strong performance of the Swiss Universal Bank.

    現在只是翻閱關鍵報告的數字。本季度收入為 45.8 億瑞士法郎,同比下降 12%。這主要是由於投資銀行的收入下降,同比下降 31%,為 16 億美元。我們的財富管理相關收入增長 2%,達到 32 億瑞士法郎,這得益於瑞士環球銀行的強勁表現。

  • Total operating expenses were 20% higher year-on-year at CHF 6.19 billion the quarter. But you should remember that this is primarily due to the goodwill impairment of CHF 1.6 billion. Goodwill impairments actually flow through the expense line, obviously, together with the litigation provisions.

    本季度總運營費用為 61.9 億瑞士法郎,同比增長 20%。但您應該記住,這主要是由於 16 億瑞士法郎的商譽減值。顯然,商譽減值實際上與訴訟準備一起流經費用線。

  • Now overall for the quarter, we reported a pretax loss of CHF 1.59 billion. On an adjusted basis, which excludes the goodwill impairment, litigation provisions and other significant items, we earned a pretax income of CHF 328 million.

    現在,本季度總體而言,我們報告了 15.9 億瑞士法郎的稅前虧損。在不包括商譽減值、訴訟準備金和其他重要項目的調整後,我們的稅前收入為 3.28 億瑞士法郎。

  • Now the income tax expense totaled CHF 416 million in the quarter, and that continues to be adversely affected by the consequence of the Archegos loss and in the fourth quarter by other items and that's particularly the goodwill impairment for which no tax deduction is available when you actually write it off. Now for reference, that equates to a full year tax rate of about 196%. Although if you strip out Archegos and the goodwill impairment, you can calculate that normalizes at about 28%.

    現在,本季度的所得稅費用總計 4.16 億瑞士法郎,這繼續受到 Archegos 損失的後果以及第四季度其他項目的不利影響,尤其是商譽減值,當您無法減稅時實際上把它寫下來。現在作為參考,這相當於全年稅率約為 196%。儘管如果您剔除 Archegos 和商譽減值,您可以計算出正常化率約為 28%。

  • And looking forward to 2022, we'd expect an effective tax rate to be in the low 30s for the year. So let me just give some more detail regarding our adjusted and our reported numbers, both for the fourth quarter and for the full year. Now as I've indicated before, there are a number of items that have had an impact both credit and debit. And I've broken this out on the slide. Now just freeze, from this point on, just assume that when I refer to adjusted numbers, I mean adjusted excluding significant items at Archegos.

    展望 2022 年,我們預計今年的有效稅率將在 30 多歲以下。因此,讓我就第四季度和全年的調整後和報告的數字提供更多細節。現在,正如我之前所指出的,有許多項目對貸方和借方都有影響。我已經在幻燈片上打破了這一點。現在凍結,從這一點開始,假設當我提到調整後的數字時,我的意思是調整後不包括 Archegos 的重要項目。

  • So if we start from the left. The fourth quarter reported loss was CHF 1.59 billion. And that reconciles, as you can see moving to the right, to the pretax number on an adjusted basis of CHF 328 million. At the bottom, you can see the full year numbers. So they correspond to CHF 522 million pretax loss and adjusted pretax income of CHF 6.6 billion.

    所以如果我們從左邊開始。第四季度報告的虧損為 15.9 億瑞士法郎。正如您所看到的,這與調整後的稅前數字 3.28 億瑞士法郎相協調。在底部,您可以看到全年數字。因此,它們對應於 5.22 億瑞士法郎的稅前虧損和 66 億瑞士法郎的調整後稅前收入。

  • So let's just go through these points in a bit more detail. So first of all, as I've already mentioned, we saw gains from real estate sales. And those were completed predominantly in Switzerland in the fourth quarter. Those gains were part of the capital steps that we announced in the second quarter of last year and we booked CHF 224 million of gains in the fourth quarter with a total gain of CHF 232 million for the year. And you can see we also booked a CHF 31 million gain in the quarter on our 8.6% interest in Allfunds with a total gain for the year of CHF 602 million.

    因此,讓我們更詳細地討論這些要點。首先,正如我已經提到的,我們看到了房地產銷售的收益。這些主要是在第四季度在瑞士完成的。這些收益是我們在去年第二季度宣布的資本步驟的一部分,我們在第四季度錄得 2.24 億瑞士法郎的收益,全年總收益為 2.32 億瑞士法郎。您可以看到,我們在 Allfunds 的 8.6% 股權在本季度還錄得 3100 萬瑞士法郎的收益,全年總收益為 6.02 億瑞士法郎。

  • We then saw smaller items totaling CHF 57 million of losses in the fourth quarter and CHF 212 million in the year as a whole. Now just most notably, I'm sure you remember that in the third quarter, that included the write-down on our investment in New York of a further CHF 113 million, and there've been no moves on that since then.

    然後我們看到較小的項目在第四季度總計虧損 5700 萬瑞士法郎,全年虧損 2.12 億瑞士法郎。現在最值得注意的是,我相信你還記得在第三季度,這包括我們在紐約的投資減記了 1.13 億瑞士法郎,從那時起就沒有任何動作。

  • There was no material move in our Archegos position in the fourth quarter. But clearly, the full year results are marred by the total loss relating to this matter of about CHF 4.8 billion.

    第四季度我們的 Archegos 職位沒有重大變化。但顯然,全年業績因與此事有關的約 48 億瑞士法郎的總損失而受損。

  • Now if we move to the right, we had restructuring charges of CHF 33 million in the quarter, and CHF 103 million in the year. And I just want to reiterate the guidance that we gave at the Investor Day that we'd expect a total cost of around CHF 400 million in restructuring from the beginning of this program to the end -- at the end of 2022.

    現在,如果我們向右移動,我們在本季度的重組費用為 3300 萬瑞士法郎,在本年度為 1.03 億瑞士法郎。我只想重申我們在投資者日提供的指導,我們預計從該計劃開始到結束 - 到 2022 年底,重組的總成本約為 4 億瑞士法郎。

  • Clearly, though, those costs will only actually flow through as we actually complete our exit from the bulk of the prime services businesses and complete the other organization measures.

    不過,很明顯,這些成本只會在我們真正完成退出大部分主要服務業務並完成其他組織措施時才會真正發生。

  • Now in terms of major litigation costs then. We took provisions of CHF 436 million in the quarter and a total of CHF 1.16 billion for the year. As I've said already, in the fourth quarter, these were predominantly against a number of legacy cases relating to the Investment Banking businesses and were booked either in the Investment Bank P&L, or for cases which were handled by the Strategic Resolution Unit, now the Asset Resolution Unit in the Corporate Center.

    現在就主要訴訟費用而言。我們在本季度計提了 4.36 億瑞士法郎的準備金,全年計提了 11.6 億瑞士法郎的準備金。正如我已經說過的,在第四季度,這些主要針對與投資銀行業務相關的一些遺留案件,並且被記入投資銀行損益表,或者現在由戰略解決部門處理的案件企業中心的資產處置部門。

  • The residual investment bank-related goodwill of CHF 1.6 billion mainly resulting from the DOJ acquisition in 2000 completes the write-off of all the residual goodwill relating to the acquired investment bank assets of DOJ and has been booked in the Investment Bank and APAC divisions.

    主要由 2000 年 DOJ 收購產生的 16 億瑞士法郎剩餘投資銀行相關商譽完成了與所收購 DOJ 投資銀行資產相關的所有剩餘商譽的核銷,並已計入投資銀行和亞太地區部門。

  • Let's turn to capital ratios, please. Our CET1 ratio for the fourth quarter stood at 14.4%, and that's stable compared to third quarter but clearly is substantially ahead of the ratio of 12.9% that we reported at the end of 2020. The CET1 leverage ratio was 10 basis points higher quarter-on-quarter at 4.4% and due to lower leverage exposure, primarily from the reductions in prime services as headline CET1 leverage ratio is unchanged year-on-year. But you should remember that this is a function of the temporary COVID measures that FINRA introduced back in 2000, which excluded deposits held at the Central Bank from the leverage exposure calculation during the course of 2020. So if you exclude that temporary measure, the like-for-like improvement in the CET1 leverage ratio was from 3.9% to 4.4% at the end of 2021.

    請讓我們談談資本比率。我們第四季度的 CET1 比率為 14.4%,與第三季度相比保持穩定,但明顯高於我們在 2020 年底報告的 12.9% 的比率。CET1 槓桿比率比季度高 10 個基點 -環比為 4.4%,並且由於槓桿敞口較低,主要是由於主要 CET1 槓桿率同比保持不變,主要服務的減少。但您應該記住,這是 FINRA 在 2000 年引入的臨時 COVID 措施的一個功能,該措施將在中央銀行持有的存款排除在 2020 年期間的槓桿敞口計算之外。因此,如果您排除該臨時措施,等等到 2021 年底,CET1 槓桿率從 3.9% 提高到 4.4%。

  • Our risk-weighted assets were CHF 10 billion lower than at the end of the previous quarter at CHF 268 billion, whilst leverage exposure was CHF 48 billion lower, CHF 875 billion. Lower risk appetite across the Investment Bank in '21, together with the Prime Services exit, has led to RWA and leverage exposure reductions of CHF 1 billion and CHF 18 billion, respectively, quarter-on-quarter.

    我們的風險加權資產比上一季度末的 2680 億瑞士法郎減少了 100 億瑞士法郎,而槓桿敞口減少了 480 億瑞士法郎,即 8750 億瑞士法郎。 21 年整個投資銀行的風險偏好降低,加上 Prime Services 退出,導致風險加權資產和槓桿敞口分別環比減少 10 億瑞士法郎和 180 億瑞士法郎。

  • And the reduced risk appetite and the deleveraging by clients I mentioned already led to corresponding falls of CHF 5 billion in RWAs and CHF 7 billion in leverage exposure across our Wealth Management businesses.

    我提到的風險偏好下降和客戶去槓桿化已經導致我們財富管理業務的風險加權資產和槓桿敞口相應下降 50 億瑞士法郎和 70 億瑞士法郎。

  • Now as we said already, in terms of our ambition to achieve at least USD 3 billion reduction in the capital allocated to the investment by the bank by the end of this year compared to 2020, that the actions that we already concluded means that we've achieved USD 2 billion of that total compared to the starting point at the end of 2020.

    現在正如我們已經說過的那樣,就我們的雄心而言,到今年年底,與 2020 年相比,銀行投資分配的資本至少減少 30 億美元,我們已經完成的行動意味著我們與 2020 年底的起點相比,我們已經實現了其中的 20 億美元。

  • I'd remind you that our medium-term ambition remains to operate the CET1 ratio in excess of 14% pre the impact of the Basel III reforms and a CET1 leverage ratio of about 4.5% in the future.

    我要提醒您的是,我們的中期目標仍然是在巴塞爾協議 III 改革影響之前使 CET1 比率超過 14%,未來 CET1 槓桿比率約為 4.5%。

  • Now I just wanted to make a brief point here about the Swiss CET1 capital ratio for Credit Suisse AG, the parent bank, which we discussed in some detail at the Investor Day back in November. As you know, our aspiration for the parent is a ratio of 12%. But at the end of 2021, it dipped to 11.7%. And with the phase-in of the transitional regime, to 11.4% as of January 1, 2022. And as we detailed in the earnings release, this is primarily due to FINRA imposing restrictions on the value of our subsidiaries for capital purposes.

    現在我只想在這裡簡要介紹一下母銀行瑞士信貸公司的瑞士 CET1 資本比率,我們在 11 月的投資者日上對此進行了詳細討論。如您所知,我們對父母的期望是12%。但到 2021 年底,這一比例降至 11.7%。隨著過渡制度的逐步實施,截至 2022 年 1 月 1 日,這一比例達到 11.4%。正如我們在財報中詳述的那樣,這主要是由於 FINRA 出於資本目的對我們子公司的價值施加了限制。

  • Given that the group has an overall ratio of 14.4%, this is about the distribution of capital around the group and not the overall capital level. And as I said back in November, substantial capital repatriations and dividends are due from our U.K., U.S. and Swiss subsidiaries over the course of the next 12 months, which should rebalance this. As a consequence, I'd expect the Swiss CET1 ratio of the parent to increase to above our ratio -- our target of 12% by the year-end.

    鑑於集團的整體比例為14.4%,這是關於集團周圍的資本分配,而不是整體資本水平。正如我在 11 月所說的那樣,我們的英國、美國和瑞士子公司將在未來 12 個月內進行大量資本匯回和股息,這應該會重新平衡這一點。因此,我預計母公司的瑞士 CET1 比率將增加到高於我們的比率——我們的目標是到年底達到 12%。

  • Next slide, please. Now as I've already mentioned, client deleveraging and challenging markets in some of the regions in which we operate, particularly in Asia, together with reductions in our own risk appetite resulted in a mixed performance for our Wealth Management businesses in the fourth quarter. However, we've continued to make progress in growing assets under management and increasing our mandate volumes.

    請下一張幻燈片。正如我已經提到的,在我們經營的一些地區,尤其是亞洲,客戶去槓桿化和挑戰市場,加上我們自身風險偏好的降低,導致我們的財富管理業務在第四季度的表現喜憂參半。但是,我們在增加管理資產和增加授權量方面繼續取得進展。

  • If we look at the year as a whole, AUM grew by 7% to CHF 1.6 trillion with net new asset contributions from our Institutional and Wealth Management businesses of CHF 20 billion and CHF 11 billion, respectively. We saw year-end mandate volumes of CHF 241 billion, 9% higher than the end of 2020, whilst mandate penetration stood at 31% at the end of '21 compared to 29% a year earlier. And that puts us on track to achieve our medium-term ambition to have a range between 33% and 35%.

    從全年來看,AUM 增長 7% 至 1.6 萬億瑞士法郎,機構和財富管理業務的淨新資產貢獻分別為 200 億瑞士法郎和 110 億瑞士法郎。我們看到年終授權量為 2410 億瑞士法郎,比 2020 年底增長 9%,而 21 年底授權滲透率為 31%,而去年同期為 29%。這使我們有望實現我們的中期目標,即 33% 到 35% 之間的範圍。

  • Let me touch on costs in the next few slides. So what I'll give here is a bit more detail about the operating expenses. Our reported total for group operating expenses for the full year was CHF 19 billion, and that compares to CHF 17.8 billion for 2020. This increase was adversely impacted by the goodwill impairment of CHF 1.6 billion, which flows through our expense line, but clearly does not relate to ongoing operating expenses. The costs are also inflated by the increase in major litigation provisions that we took in the year.

    讓我在接下來的幾張幻燈片中談談成本。因此,我將在這裡提供有關運營費用的更多詳細信息。我們報告的全年集團運營費用總額為 190 億瑞士法郎,而 2020 年為 178 億瑞士法郎。這一增長受到 16 億瑞士法郎的商譽減值的不利影響,該減值流經我們的費用項目,但顯然確實如此與持續運營費用無關。我們在這一年採取的主要訴訟準備金的增加也增加了成本。

  • Now on an adjusted basis, therefore, costs decreased from CHF 16.6 billion to CHF 16.0 billion, a decline of 4% year-on-year. But I would remind you that the variable compensation costs are lower given that the events of last year required us to make changes to both the amount and the type of compensation that was awarded.

    因此,在調整後的基礎上,成本從 166 億瑞士法郎降至 160 億瑞士法郎,同比下降 4%。但我要提醒您,鑑於去年的事件要求我們更改所授予的賠償金額和類型,可變賠償成本較低。

  • So let's turn to that in more detail, please. Now we will give clearly a full summary in the compensation report that we published as part of our annual report on March 10. But there are a few details that I thought it would be useful to cover now.

    因此,請讓我們更詳細地討論這個問題。現在,我們將在 3 月 10 日作為年度報告的一部分發布的薪酬報告中清楚地給出完整的總結。但有一些細節我認為現在介紹一下會很有用。

  • The challenges that the firm faced in 2021 required us to balance 3 factors. First, we need to recognize the losses that our shareholders had suffered from Archegos, the goodwill impairment, the major litigation provisions and the other costs incurred over the course of '21. Second, and against that, we needed to reflect the competitive compensation environment and the strong underlying performance that was delivered by many of our businesses, notwithstanding other problems in '21. And third, clearly, the need to retain and motivate key franchises and personnel as we execute on the strategic plan over '22 to '24.

    公司在 2021 年面臨的挑戰要求我們平衡 3 個因素。首先,我們需要確認我們的股東在 21 年期間因 Archegos 遭受的損失、商譽減值、重大訴訟準備金和其他成本。其次,與此相反,我們需要反映競爭性的薪酬環境和我們許多業務提供的強勁的基本業績,儘管 21 年存在其他問題。第三,很明顯,在我們執行 22 到 24 年的戰略計劃時,需要保留和激勵關鍵的特許經營權和人員。

  • So the Board of Directors and the Executive Board, therefore, decided to reduce the variable compensation pool to CHF 2 billion compared to CHF 2.9 billion in 2020. And that equates to a reduction of 32%. Furthermore, for most Managing Directors and Directors, we also changed the composition of the awards with a higher proportion of cash being paid subject to clawback and a lower proportion in terms of share awards.

    因此,董事會和執行委員會決定將可變薪酬池從 2020 年的 29 億瑞士法郎減少到 20 億瑞士法郎。這相當於減少了 32%。此外,對於大多數常務董事和董事,我們還改變了獎勵的構成,增加了支付現金的比例,但在股份獎勵方面比例較低。

  • Just the point I made above though, we remain very focused on ensuring that there is clear alignment with the strategic plan. And therefore, we've awarded a further instrument to most of our Managing Directors and Directors with a par value of just under CHF 500 million. That includes an upside clause aligned to the achievement of our strategic objectives and a downside clause as certain ambitions and targets are not met.

    就我上面所說的一點,我們仍然非常專注於確保與戰略計劃明確一致。因此,我們向大多數常務董事和董事授予了面值略低於 5 億瑞士法郎的進一步文書。這包括與實現我們的戰略目標一致的上行條款和未實現某些雄心和目標的下行條款。

  • Now one consequence of this mix of deferred awards for our expense recognition has been the reduction of compensation costs for '21. And therefore, a subsequent increase in deferral costs for future years. So just provide some guidance here. I'd expect to see an increase of around CHF 1 billion in 2022. That compares to the guidance we gave at the Investor Day of an increase of about CHF 500 million. That reflects the combination of the amortization of the increased deferred compensation costs I've just summarized, plus an assumption of a more normal accrual of cash awards in 2022. And although clearly, the size of that increase will depend on the total bonus pool for the current year.

    現在,我們的費用確認的這種遞延獎勵組合的一個結果是減少了 21 年的補償成本。因此,未來幾年的延期成本隨之增加。所以在這裡提供一些指導。我預計 2022 年將增加約 10 億瑞士法郎。相比之下,我們在投資者日給出的指導意見增加了約 5 億瑞士法郎。這反映了我剛剛總結的增加的遞延補償成本的攤銷,加上 2022 年現金獎勵更正常的假設。雖然很明顯,增加的規模將取決於總獎金池本年度。

  • So let's just bring this altogether and give you an idea of where we do expect costs will look like for '22. So you'll probably recall some of these numbers from the Investor Day. But if we move from left to right, we start with the 2021 adjusted expenses, which stood at CHF 16 billion. In '22, we expect to see the savings resulting from business exits totaling about CHF 400 million and about another CHF 300 million from the structural cost saving measures that we're pushing through. However, the approximately CHF 1 billion increase in compensation costs that I've just outlined, together, our investment plans of an additional CHF 700 million means that overall I would expect our adjusted operating expenses to be at the top of the range of CHF 16.5 billion to CHF 17 billion that we gave last November and probably around CHF 17 billion, but clearly subject to the caveats I've given already.

    因此,讓我們把它全部帶來,讓您了解我們預計 22 年的成本會是什麼樣子。因此,您可能會記得投資者日的其中一些數字。但如果我們從左到右移動,我們將從 2021 年調整後的費用開始,為 160 億瑞士法郎。在 22 年,我們預計業務退出帶來的節省總額約為 4 億瑞士法郎,而我們正在推行的結構性成本節約措施將再節省約 3 億瑞士法郎。然而,我剛剛概述的大約 10 億瑞士法郎的補償成本增加,加上我們額外 7 億瑞士法郎的投資計劃,意味著總體而言,我預計我們調整後的運營費用將處於 16.5 瑞士法郎範圍的頂部10 億至 170 億瑞士法郎,我們在去年 11 月提供了大約 170 億瑞士法郎,但顯然受制於我已經給出的警告。

  • Just to be clear, though, we are not changing our guidance for costs for '23 and '24. I'd reiterate that we would expect that to remain in the range of CHF 16.5 billion to CHF 17 billion once we're through this transitional year.

    不過,需要明確的是,我們不會更改 '23 和 '24 的成本指南。我要重申,一旦我們度過這個過渡年,我們預計將保持在 165 億瑞士法郎至 170 億瑞士法郎的範圍內。

  • Let me turn now to the divisional summaries, and let's start with the Swiss Universal Bank. The Swiss Universal Bank concluded a strong performance through the year, with adjusted net revenues for the quarter -- fourth quarter of CHF 1.31 billion, 6% higher year-on-year. Our businesses delivered increases in all major revenue categories, in particular, recurring commissions and fees. We also saw a good performance from our Investment Banking operations in Switzerland.

    現在讓我談談部門摘要,讓我們從瑞士環球銀行開始。瑞士環球銀行全年業績強勁,本季度調整後淨收入為 13.1 億瑞士法郎,同比增長 6%。我們的業務實現了所有主要收入類別的增長,特別是經常性佣金和費用。我們還看到我們在瑞士的投資銀行業務表現良好。

  • Adjusted operating expenses were 3% lower year-on-year at CHF 770 million, resulting in an adjusted pretax income of CHF 546 million, and that's 41% higher than in the fourth quarter of last year. Our reported pretax income was 47% higher year-on-year at CHF 716 million.

    調整後的運營費用為 7.7 億瑞士法郎,同比下降 3%,調整後的稅前收入為 5.46 億瑞士法郎,比去年第四季度增長 41%。我們報告的稅前收入為 7.16 億瑞士法郎,同比增長 47%。

  • Now as we've seen before in the fourth quarter, and this is -- this often happens, there were outflows in our Private Client business totaling CHF 1.8 billion. But I'd remind you for the year, we saw total net new assets in private clients of CHF 1.4 billion positive. Overall, the Swiss Universal Bank reported a record adjusted pretax income for the full year of CHF 2.4 billion, 25% higher year-on-year as provisions for credit losses fell from CHF 270 million to CHF 6 million.

    現在,正如我們之前在第四季度看到的那樣,這經常發生,我們的私人客戶業務流出總額為 18 億瑞士法郎。但我要提醒你,今年我們看到私人客戶的淨新資產總額為 14 億瑞士法郎。總體而言,由於信貸損失準備金從 2.7 億瑞士法郎降至 600 萬瑞士法郎,瑞士環球銀行全年調整後稅前收入達到創紀錄的 24 億瑞士法郎,同比增長 25%。

  • Let me now turn to International Wealth Management. Adjusted net revenues for the quarter were CHF 695 million, 19% lower year-on-year. Whilst we saw some stabilization of net interest income on a sequential basis, it's clearly lower compared to the fourth quarter of 2020 due to the cumulative interest rate moves over the period.

    現在讓我談談國際財富管理。本季度調整後的淨收入為 6.95 億瑞士法郎,同比下降 19%。儘管我們看到淨利息收入環比有所穩定,但由於該期間的累積利率變動,與 2020 年第四季度相比明顯較低。

  • Our recurring commissions and fees were 7% lower year-on-year at CHF 277 million, with higher mandate revenues and a stable margin, offset by lower fees from lending activities. At CHF 156 million, our transaction-based fees were 40% lower than last year, reflecting, amongst other factors: First, a mark-to-market loss on an investment in Brazil of CHF 19 million compared to a gain on the same investment of CHF 31 million in the same quarter last year; second, the reversion of trading activity to more normal levels; and clearly, third, our own risk reduction in 2021. We should also note reduction in GTS revenues compared to a year ago.

    我們的經常性佣金和費用為 2.77 億瑞士法郎,同比下降 7%,授權收入增加且利潤率穩定,但被借貸活動的費用降低所抵消。我們基於交易的費用為 1.56 億瑞士法郎,比去年降低了 40%,這主要反映了以下因素:首先,在巴西的投資按市值計算虧損 1900 萬瑞士法郎,而相同投資的收益則為去年同期為 3100 萬瑞士法郎;第二,交易活動恢復到更正常的水平;顯然,第三,我們自己在 2021 年的風險降低。我們還應該注意到 GTS 收入與一年前相比有所減少。

  • But one final point, which is worth mentioning. that is the impact of the fee waiver program. This was established in the fourth quarter as a goodwill measure for clients impacted by the supply chain finance matter and entails the reimbursement on a quarterly basis of certain commissions and fees arising from current and future business transactions. The negative impact on revenue from this goodwill program across the Wealth Management businesses was CHF 28 million in the fourth quarter, and the majority of this was incurred in IWM.

    但最後一點,值得一提。這就是費用減免計劃的影響。這是在第四季度建立的,作為對受供應鏈金融問題影響的客戶的商譽衡量標準,需要按季度償還當前和未來業務交易產生的某些佣金和費用。該商譽計劃對財富管理業務的收入產生的負面影響在第四季度為 2800 萬瑞士法郎,其中大部分發生在 IWM 中。

  • Operating expenses in IWM was 7% higher at CHF 671 million as we continue to make investments in IWM infrastructure as well as a number of risk and sustainability plans. I think it's clear that a strong aspect of IWM's performance in the fourth quarter was client inflows. We saw net new assets totaling CHF 2.7 billion in the quarter, which took the total for the year to CHF 11 billion and that's notwithstanding the adverse impact of the supply chain finance matter throughout much of 2021. But it is clear though the overall financial performance for the fourth quarter was unsatisfactory. A combination of the reduction in revenues, particularly transactional revenues, plus the increase in costs, reduced adjusted pretax income to CHF 25 million in the quarter.

    由於我們繼續對 IWM 基礎設施以及一些風險和可持續發展計劃進行投資,IWM 的運營費用增加了 7%,達到 6.71 億瑞士法郎。我認為很明顯,IWM 在第四季度的表現的一個重要方面是客戶流入。我們在本季度看到總計 27 億瑞士法郎的淨新資產,使全年的總資產達到 110 億瑞士法郎,儘管供應鏈金融問題在 2021 年的大部分時間裡都受到了不利影響。但很明顯,儘管整體財務表現第四季度表現不理想。收入減少,尤其是交易收入減少,加上成本增加,使本季度調整後的稅前收入減少至 2500 萬瑞士法郎。

  • Now if you look at the performance for the whole year, a 1% reduction in adjusted costs and a significant decline in provisions was not enough to offset the 10% decline in net revenues and our adjusted pretax income was CHF 770 million, 23% lower than in 2020.

    現在,如果您查看全年的業績,調整後的成本減少 1% 和準備金的顯著下降不足以抵消淨收入下降 10% 的影響,我們調整後的稅前收入為 7.7 億瑞士法郎,下降了 23%比 2020 年。

  • Let's turn to APAC. So the region has been adversely impacted by the weakening of market conditions, particularly in the fourth quarter, but in the second half to a degree as a whole. And that was evidenced both by the significant client deleveraging that we've seen in Asia and by a reduction in activity.

    讓我們轉向亞太地區。因此,該地區受到市場狀況疲軟的不利影響,特別是在第四季度,但在下半年整體上有所影響。我們在亞洲看到的重要客戶去槓桿化和活動減少都證明了這一點。

  • In the case of the client deleveraging, the 11% reduction in loans year-on-year reflected the change in market environment as well as the reduction in our own risk appetite towards a number of customers.

    在客戶去槓桿的情況下,貸款同比減少11%,反映了市場環境的變化以及我們自身對部分客戶的風險偏好下降。

  • In the case of lower client activity, declining net interest income of 13% and in transaction-based revenues of 33% reflects the weaker environment and a softer GTS performance compared to the fourth quarter of 2020. Although recurring commissions and fees for the quarter improved by 19% to USD 118 million year-on-year, driven by higher mandate and fee revenues, our adjusted net revenues were 20% lower year-on-year at USD 661 million.

    在客戶活動減少的情況下,淨利息收入下降 13%,基於交易的收入下降 33%,這反映了與 2020 年第四季度相比,環境疲軟和 GTS 表現疲軟。儘管該季度的經常性佣金和費用有所改善在授權和費用收入增加的推動下,我們的調整後淨收入同比下降 20%,為 6.61 億美元,同比下降 19% 至 1.18 億美元。

  • Slightly lower operating expenses of USD 581 million for the quarter meant that the division delivered an adjusted pretax income of USD 94 million. Now if we include APAC's USD 113 million share of the goodwill charge relating to DOJ, that results in a reported pretax loss for the quarter of USD 9 million.

    本季度運營費用略低於 5.81 億美元,這意味著該部門實現了 9400 萬美元的調整後稅前收入。現在,如果我們將亞太地區 1.13 億美元的與司法部相關的商譽費用包括在內,則該季度報告的稅前虧損為 900 萬美元。

  • Now for the full year, the more resilient market environment earlier in the year meant that notwithstanding higher costs related to the Relationship Manager hiring and the investments that we've made in China, the division reported an adjusted pretax income of $1.01 billion for the year, and that's an increase of 22% compared to 2020.

    就全年而言,今年早些時候更具彈性的市場環境意味著,儘管與客戶關係經理招聘和我們在中國進行的投資相關的成本較高,但該部門報告的調整後稅前收入為 10.1 億美元,與 2020 年相比增加了 22%。

  • Right, next slide, please. After the strong trading environment that prevailed for most of 2021, we saw a weak close to the year in our Investment Bank with net revenues of USD 1.6 billion in the fourth quarter of 2021, compared to USD 2.3 billion in the very strong final quarter of 2020. We saw weakness in fixed income sales and trading, which was primarily credit-related. And reduction in equity revenues, which primarily results to our decision to exit the majority of our prime service businesses.

    好的,請下一張幻燈片。在 2021 年大部分時間盛行的強勁交易環境之後,我們看到我們的投資銀行在年底表現疲軟,2021 年第四季度的淨收入為 16 億美元,而在非常強勁的最後一個季度為 23 億美元2020 年,我們看到主要與信貸相關的固定收益銷售和交易疲軟。以及股權收入的減少,這主要導致我們決定退出我們的大部分主要服務業務。

  • Now furthermore, compared to the fourth quarter of 2020 when our equity capital market franchise was buoyed by very heavy levels of SPAC activity, this new issuance has clearly been lower in recent months. And on a more positive note, we saw a strong performance in equity derivatives in our macro businesses and continued momentum in our advisory operations, which were increased market share resulted in a 51% year-on-year increase in revenues to USD 300 million for the quarter.

    此外,與 2020 年第四季度相比,當時我們的股票資本市場專營權受到非常高水平的 SPAC 活動的提振,最近幾個月的新發行明顯較低。從更積極的方面來看,我們看到我們宏觀業務的股票衍生品表現強勁,我們的諮詢業務繼續保持勢頭,市場份額增加導致收入同比增長 51%,達到 3 億美元季度。

  • However, overall, the weaker revenue performance resulted in adjusted pretax loss of USD 233 million for the quarter, and that's notwithstanding a 5% drop in operating expenses which was primarily due to the compensation points that I made earlier in this presentation.

    然而,總體而言,較弱的收入表現導致本季度調整後的稅前虧損為 2.33 億美元,儘管運營費用下降了 5%,這主要是由於我在本演示文稿前面提出的補償點。

  • Overall, our underlying performance of the year was much stronger with adjusted net revenues 5% higher compared to 2020 and 25% higher compared to 2019. Our adjusted pretax income was 2/3 higher than in 2020 at USD 3.15 billion, and that's notwithstanding a 15% reduction in allocated capital. However, just to be clear, given the losses relating to Archegos and the DOJ goodwill impairment, that meant this translated into a reported loss for the year of USD 3.92 billion.

    總體而言,我們今年的基本業績要強勁得多,調整後的淨收入比 2020 年高 5%,比 2019 年高 25%。我們的調整後稅前收入比 2020 年高 2/3,為 31.5 億美元,儘管分配資本減少 15%。然而,需要明確的是,鑑於與 Archegos 和 DOJ 商譽減值有關的損失,這意味著該年度報告的損失為 39.2 億美元。

  • Let's turn now to Asset Management. Now adjusted net revenues for the division were broadly flat at CHF 387 million compared to CHF 392 million in the fourth quarter of 2020. A 9% improvement in management fees, reflecting higher assets under management and higher investment and partnership income was offset by a 36% decline in performance and placement revenues and that clearly compares to a comparatively strong fourth quarter close to 2020.

    現在讓我們轉向資產管理。現在,該部門的調整後淨收入大致持平,為 3.87 億瑞士法郎,而 2020 年第四季度為 3.92 億瑞士法郎。管理費增長 9%,反映管理資產增加以及投資和合夥收入增加,但被 36業績和安置收入下降 %,這顯然與接近 2020 年第四季度的相對強勁相比。

  • We saw an increase in adjusted operating expenses of 10% quarter -- for the quarter year-on-year at CHF 310 million, and that reflected both higher variable compensation costs in the quarter and expenses relating to the supply chain finance funds. We saw positive net new asset inflows for the quarter of CHF 4.7 billion, driven by flows into our index solutions funds and into our emerging markets joint venture, which was partly offset by outflows from some of our fixed income funds.

    我們看到本季度調整後的運營費用增加了 10%——本季度同比增長 3.1 億瑞士法郎,這反映了本季度較高的可變薪酬成本和與供應鏈金融基金相關的費用。我們在本季度看到了 47 億瑞士法郎的正淨新資產流入,這是由於流入我們的指數解決方案基金和我們的新興市場合資企業,這部分被我們的一些固定收益基金的流出所抵消。

  • Overall, the adjusted pretax income for the quarter was CHF 79 million, and that's 31% lower year-on-year. Clearly, if you look at the performance for the full year, 21% revenue growth with good momentum across all the business lines meant that the division delivered an adjusted pretax income of CHF 417 million, and that clearly compares to an undoubtedly weak performance of CHF 192 million in 2020.

    總體而言,本季度調整後的稅前收入為 7900 萬瑞士法郎,同比下降 31%。顯然,如果你看一下全年的業績,21% 的收入增長和所有業務線的良好勢頭意味著該部門實現了 4.17 億瑞士法郎的調整後稅前收入,這顯然與瑞士法郎無疑疲軟的業績相比2020年為1.92億。

  • Net new assets for the year was CHF 14.6 billion, and that increased the assets under management for AM division from CHF 440 billion to CHF 477 billion.

    當年的淨新資產為 146 億瑞士法郎,這使 AM 部門管理的資產從 4400 億瑞士法郎增加到 4770 億瑞士法郎。

  • So let me just close then with just a few words, please, on the outlook for the current year. Clearly, as we've said already, 2022 will be a transitional year for Credit Suisse as the benefits of the strategic capital allocation towards our Wealth Management businesses and the structural cost saving measures that we discussed already will only really materialize from 2023 onwards. And I'd caution that I think we are seeing the end of the extremely favorable business environment that we've seen, particularly from transactions over the last couple of years, which has been driven by the substantial measures that central banks and governments have taken to sustain economies during the pandemic. We're clearly now seeing the start of the tightening of the interest rate environment, which has already begun in the United States and in the U.K. and certain other markets and we expect to be followed by the ECB later this year or in early 2023. I think this will mean a shift to a more normal trading environment that we've seen over the last couple of years, and we would expect this to be reflected in our results for the first quarter. And adjusted results for the first quarter, that is excluding the Archegos loss last year, are likely weaker than the first quarter of 2021, which arguably saw the peak benefit from the various monetary and fiscal incentives.

    因此,請讓我就今年的展望簡單說幾句。顯然,正如我們已經說過的那樣,2022 年將是瑞士信貸的過渡年,因為戰略資本配置對我們的財富管理業務的好處以及我們已經討論過的結構性成本節約措施只會從 2023 年起真正實現。我要提醒的是,我認為我們看到的極其有利的商業環境正在結束,特別是過去幾年的交易,這是由中央銀行和政府採取的大量措施推動的在大流行期間維持經濟。我們現在清楚地看到利率環境開始收緊,美國、英國和某些其他市場已經開始收緊,我們預計歐洲央行將在今年晚些時候或 2023 年初跟進。我認為這將意味著向過去幾年我們所看到的更正常的交易環境轉變,我們預計這將反映在我們第一季度的業績中。第一季度的調整後業績(不包括去年的 Archegos 虧損)可能弱於 2021 年第一季度,可以說是各種貨幣和財政激勵措施帶來的最大收益。

  • I think it's worth remembering, though, that whilst this will be a very different market, it will be one in which our clients do remain in need of good advice and products as they navigate a challenging landscape with the expectation of much higher levels of inflation and interest rates than we've seen for the last decade or so.

    不過,我認為值得記住的是,雖然這將是一個非常不同的市場,但我們的客戶確實需要好的建議和產品,因為他們在一個充滿挑戰的環境中航行,預計通脹水平會更高和我們在過去十年左右看到的利率。

  • I think after a difficult close to 2021, we do expect though to see renewed franchise momentum as the new divisional structure takes shape. And as we've said in our outlook statement in the release, we have seen positive net new asset inflows year-to-date in our Wealth Management business. Nonetheless, I think it's clear, results this year will be adversely reflected by compensation normalization, by restructuring expenses and of course, by the decline in equity revenues following our decision to exit the majority of our prime business.

    我認為,在接近 2021 年的艱難時期之後,我們確實希望隨著新的部門結構的形成,看到新的特許經營勢頭。正如我們在新聞稿中的展望聲明中所說,我們的財富管理業務年初至今出現了積極的淨新資產流入。儘管如此,我認為很明顯,今年的業績將受到薪酬正常化、重組費用的不利影響,當然還有我們決定退出大部分主要業務後股權收入的下降。

  • Now just one point, just to conclude. Whilst this isn't relevant to our underlying performance, I'd also note that we continue to hold an 8.6% stake in Allfunds, the value of which has fallen by about CHF 204 million in the market sell off so far this year. Now clearly, Allfunds has been an extremely successful investment for Credit Suisse over the last 3 years. But now it's a quoted listed company that will contribute to a continuing degree of P&L volatility going forward.

    現在只說一點,總結一下。雖然這與我們的基本業績無關,但我還要指出,我們繼續持有 Allfunds 8.6% 的股份,在今年迄今為止的市場拋售中,其價值已下跌約 2.04 億瑞士法郎。現在很明顯,Allfunds 在過去 3 年中一直是瑞士信貸極為成功的投資。但現在它是一家上市公司,這將有助於未來持續的損益波動。

  • And with that, I'd like to just to hand back to Thomas before we move to Q&A.

    有了這個,在我們進行問答之前,我想把問題交還給 Thomas。

  • Thomas P. Gottstein - Member of the Executive Board & CEO

    Thomas P. Gottstein - Member of the Executive Board & CEO

  • Thank you, David. Let me conclude with a few comments. The Board of Directors and the Executive Board are fully committed to the group strategy we outlined in November 2021 with 2022 being a transition year. We reaffirm our financial aspirations, including for group reported return on tangible equity of greater than 10% by 2024. And we are now fully focused on executing on this strategic plan.

    謝謝你,大衛。讓我以幾點評論結束。董事會和執行董事會完全致力於我們在 2021 年 11 月概述的集團戰略,2022 年是過渡年。我們重申我們的財務願望,包括到 2024 年集團報告的有形股本回報率超過 10%。我們現在完全專注於執行這一戰略計劃。

  • We have achieved significant progress on the risk and compliance as we have outlined earlier today by recognizing that there is more to do. And finally, although we experienced a slowdown across our business in the fourth quarter, we are confident that we are regaining client and revenue momentum in the first quarter and have seen encouraging signs so far.

    正如我們今天早些時候概述的那樣,我們認識到還有更多工作要做,因此我們在風險和合規方面取得了重大進展。最後,儘管我們在第四季度經歷了整個業務的放緩,但我們相信我們正在恢復第一季度的客戶和收入勢頭,並且到目前為止已經看到了令人鼓舞的跡象。

  • Thank you very much. And with this, I would like to open the Q&A.

    非常感謝。有了這個,我想打開問答。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • (Operator Instructions) And the first question comes from the line of Magdalena Stoklosa from Morgan Stanley.

    (操作員說明)第一個問題來自摩根士丹利的 Magdalena Stoklosa。

  • Magdalena Lucja Stoklosa - MD

    Magdalena Lucja Stoklosa - MD

  • I've got 2 questions and they're both on wealth as the kind of driver of the group going forward. So my first question is about business growth and how you see it further out than the first quarter of this year. And if you could give us a sense of your expected trajectory of kind of net new assets and of course, also lending given how much capital becomes available to that division over time.

    我有 2 個問題,他們都是關於財富作為團隊前進的驅動力。所以我的第一個問題是關於業務增長以及你如何看待它比今年第一季度更進一步。如果您可以讓我們了解您對淨新資產的預期軌跡,當然還有貸款,因為隨著時間的推移,該部門可以獲得多少資金。

  • And really, when you look at the transactional side of things, I know we're coming off of the 2 strong years. Where do you think that normalizes?

    真的,當你看到事物的交易方面時,我知道我們正在結束兩年的強勁增長。你認為這在哪裡正常化?

  • And my last one, really on wealth is on net interest income. Because effectively, we have -- we are seeing a tremendous shift in interest rate expectations, U.S., Eurozone as well. Could you give us a sense of the sensitivity that you're likely to see, particularly within the wealth business to the moves in rates in '22 and maybe further out?

    我的最後一個,真正的財富是淨利息收入。因為實際上,我們看到了利率預期的巨大轉變,美國、歐元區也是如此。您能否讓我們了解您可能會看到的敏感性,特別是在財富業務中對 22 年甚至更遠的利率變動的敏感性?

  • Thomas P. Gottstein - Member of the Executive Board & CEO

    Thomas P. Gottstein - Member of the Executive Board & CEO

  • Thank you. Maybe I will kick it off, and then David will add a few points, especially on the net interest income.

    謝謝你。也許我會開始,然後大衛會加幾分,尤其是在淨利息收入方面。

  • So for the 2022 period, as we also outlined at the Investor Day, the key drivers for growth will be in terms of transactional revenues -- sorry, in terms of recurring revenues, AUM growth, M&A growth which will be driven by a combination of organic NNA growth that we expect to normalize again and be stronger than in 2021. And also driven by more lending growth, which will both help our NNA growth as well as our net interest.

    因此,正如我們在投資者日所概述的那樣,對於 2022 年期間,增長的主要驅動力將是交易收入——抱歉,就經常性收入、資產管理規模增長、併購增長而言,這將由以下因素共同推動我們預計 NNA 的有機增長將再次正常化並比 2021 年更強勁。而且還受到更多貸款增長的推動,這將有助於我們的 NNA 增長以及我們的淨利息。

  • And in addition to that, our Relationship Manager hiring intentions across the regions.

    除此之外,我們的客戶關係經理在各個地區的招聘意向。

  • And as far as transactional revenues are concerned, I would say that the slowdown we saw, especially in the second half this year was somewhat unusual, and we would expect some more normalized levels of transactional revenues in 2022. In addition to that, we are committed to further increasing our level in terms of private equity and alternative investments, as well as other initiatives around mandate penetration which should also help our recurring revenues.

    就交易收入而言,我想說我們看到的放緩,尤其是在今年下半年有些不尋常,我們預計 2022 年的交易收入水平會更加正常化。除此之外,我們是致力於進一步提高我們在私募股權和另類投資方面的水平,以及圍繞授權滲透的其他舉措,這也應該有助於我們的經常性收入。

  • These are some of the elements that we discussed in detail at the Investor Day in November. But maybe, David, you want to add a few things on the net interest income side?

    這些是我們在 11 月的投資者日上詳細討論的一些要素。但也許,大衛,你想在淨利息收入方面添加一些東西?

  • David R. Mathers - CFO & Member of the Executive Board

    David R. Mathers - CFO & Member of the Executive Board

  • Thanks very much, Thomas. Look, I think there's no doubt that the moves that we've seen already in U.S. interest rates and we expect to continue to see during the course of 2022 will be favorable to our dollar net interest income.

    非常感謝,托馬斯。看,我認為毫無疑問,我們已經看到的美國利率走勢以及我們預計將在 2022 年繼續看到的走勢將有利於我們的美元淨利息收入。

  • I mean, I think to give some numbers, if we look at the forward rate curve now, we probably expect to see about a $50 million gain in U.S. dollar net interest income in '22. And that rises to more like about $175 million in '23. So I think that gives some degree of the sensitivity due to U.S. dollars.

    我的意思是,我想給出一些數字,如果我們現在看遠期利率曲線,我們可能預計 22 年美元淨利息收入將增加約 5000 萬美元。在 23 年,這一數字上升到大約 1.75 億美元。所以我認為這在一定程度上給出了美元的敏感性。

  • I think I should balance that, though, by -- Magdalena, I think you're fully aware of this, but the major Swiss banks are all subject to the exemption threshold that the Swiss National Bank operates, which I believe is broadly similar in concept to that, that the ECB operates as well. So at some point, I mean, I think it seems unlikely that the ECB is going to be at the front of this queue. I guess we're talking late this year, maybe in '23, we would expect Swiss francs -- Swiss rates to then follow that. So at that point, you'd expect to see some diminution in Swiss franc net interest income as we go back towards 0 interest rates in Swiss franc, which is obviously going to take some time. So that will clearly partly offset the U.S. dollar moves.

    不過,我認為我應該平衡這一點,馬格達萊納,我想你已經充分意識到這一點,但是瑞士的主要銀行都受到瑞士國家銀行運營的豁免門檻的約束,我認為這在對此的概念是,歐洲央行也在運作。所以在某些時候,我的意思是,我認為歐洲央行似乎不太可能排在這個隊列的前面。我想我們會在今年晚些時候討論,也許在 23 年,我們預計瑞士法郎 - 瑞士利率隨後會隨之而來。所以到那時,隨著我們回到瑞士法郎的零利率,你會看到瑞士法郎的淨利息收入有所減少,這顯然需要一些時間。因此,這顯然會部分抵消美元的走勢。

  • So U.S. dollar favorable. Clearly, we need to watch closely when the move in Swiss rates. And you understand perfectly well how the exemption thresholds work in Switzerland and in Europe, although it's slightly bigger, I think, there's a multiplier for Swiss banks, than it is for Eurozone banks.

    所以對美元有利。顯然,我們需要密切關注瑞士利率何時變動。而且您完全理解豁免門檻在瑞士和歐洲的運作方式,儘管我認為瑞士銀行的乘數比歐元區銀行的乘數要大一些。

  • Magdalena Lucja Stoklosa - MD

    Magdalena Lucja Stoklosa - MD

  • David, can I just go back to the lending growth because, of course, we've got -- we had kind of 2 things here. One, quite a significant shift of capital over medium term to wealth. And two, of course, '21 being also that kind of transition year where you've seen quite a lot of deleveraging. Where is that kind of -- where do you see that loan demand kind of returning within your risk appetite?

    大衛,我可以回到貸款增長,因為,當然,我們有 - 我們在這裡有兩件事。一,中期內資本向財富的顯著轉移。還有兩個,當然,21 年也是那種你已經看到很多去槓桿化的過渡年。這種情況在哪裡——你認為貸款需求在你的風險偏好範圍內回歸到哪裡?

  • Thomas P. Gottstein - Member of the Executive Board & CEO

    Thomas P. Gottstein - Member of the Executive Board & CEO

  • I think it's really across all lending activities within Wealth Management. So starting with mortgages in Switzerland, lombard -- traditional lombard lending, single stock structured lending and some of the real asset lending. So it's broad based in terms of the type of lending instruments. And geographically, it's also well balanced. I think that especially Middle East and in some parts of Asia, we still continue to see a big potential for a pickup in lending growth as well as in certain areas in Europe.

    我認為這確實涉及財富管理部門的所有貸款活動。所以從瑞士的抵押貸款開始,倫巴第——傳統的倫巴第貸款、單一股票結構性貸款和一些實物資產貸款。因此,就貸款工具的類型而言,它具有廣泛的基礎。在地理上,它也很平衡。我認為,尤其是中東和亞洲某些地區,我們仍然看到貸款增長以及歐洲某些地區的巨大潛力。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • And the next question comes from the line of Jeremy Sigee from BNB Paribas Exane.

    下一個問題來自 BNB Paribas Exane 的 Jeremy Sigee。

  • Jeremy Sigee - Equity Analyst

    Jeremy Sigee - Equity Analyst

  • A couple of questions on costs, please, and the change in the guidance. So firstly, are there any unexpected elements in the deferred comp cost increasing? And if so, just could you talk us through what those unexpected bits are?

    請就成本和指南的變化提出幾個問題。那麼首先,遞延補償成本增加中是否有任何意想不到的因素?如果是這樣,你能告訴我們那些意想不到的部分是什麼嗎?

  • And then the second question is, does this changing dynamic have any impact on your investment plans either in '22 or '23 or '24 as you try to manage to the existing cost target?

    然後第二個問題是,當您試圖達到現有的成本目標時,這種變化的動態是否會對您在 22 年或 23 年或 24 年的投資計劃產生任何影響?

  • David R. Mathers - CFO & Member of the Executive Board

    David R. Mathers - CFO & Member of the Executive Board

  • Well, I think that's a very good question, Jeremy. And I wanted to be very open around the comp plan. I think historically we said wait until the comp pool comes out in a month's time. And we thought it would be more useful given the complexity this year to actually give the slides.

    嗯,我認為這是一個很好的問題,傑里米。我想對補償計劃非常開放。我認為從歷史上看,我們說過等到補償池在一個月內出來。我們認為考慮到今年實際提供幻燈片的複雜性,它會更有用。

  • So just to recap, I think you can -- saw that we did have a very difficult balance to actually walk in terms of the compensation pool, particularly given the losses that our shareholders suffered in respect of the issues last year. So that was behind the decision to reduce the variable compensation pool by 32% to CHF 2 billion.

    因此,回顧一下,我認為您可以看到我們確實在補償池方面確實存在非常困難的平衡,特別是考慮到我們的股東去年在這些問題上遭受的損失。這就是決定將可變薪酬池減少 32% 至 20 億瑞士法郎的原因。

  • But I think there's 2 factors then to keep in mind. Firstly, and this was something that we agreed on and also discussed with our regulators, we did pay those instruments with a number of deferred cash instruments, as I think has been widely reported. And secondly, I think as part of the implementation of the strategic plan from '22 to '24, we did also provide our Managing Directors and Directors with this strategic delivery award totaling just under CHF 500 million, which is a cliff vesting instrument. That cliff vesting instrument, as you know, Jeremy, doesn't mean that the cost comes in '24. It's actually time weighted under U.S. GAAP. And we'd expect probably just under around 50% of that to actually flow through in '22. So that's half of the increase.

    但我認為有兩個因素需要記住。首先,這是我們同意並與我們的監管機構討論過的事情,我們確實用一些遞延現金工具支付了這些工具,正如我認為已被廣泛報導的那樣。其次,我認為作為 22 年至 24 年戰略計劃實施的一部分,我們還向我們的董事總經理和董事提供了總額接近 5 億瑞士法郎的戰略交付獎,這是一個懸崖歸屬工具。如你所知,傑里米,懸崖歸屬工具並不意味著成本會在 24 年到來。它實際上是按照美國公認會計原則進行時間加權的。我們預計,在 22 年,其中可能只有不到 50% 會真正流過。所以這是增加的一半。

  • The other half of the increase reflects a decision which we've made to actually move to lower levels of deferral in 2023 than the past. So that's basically the driver of that increase in our guidance from CHF 500 million to CHF 1 billion in terms of the normalization of the compensation program.

    增長的另一半反映了我們做出的一項決定,即在 2023 年實際將延期水平降低到比過去低的水平。因此,就薪酬計劃的正常化而言,這基本上是我們將指導從 5 億瑞士法郎增加到 10 億瑞士法郎的驅動因素。

  • Absent that, there's nothing else that you should be focused on. We obviously are very pleased to have now signed the procurement outsourcing transaction with Chain IQ. There's a number of other strategic cost measures we're actually pushing through, which I discussed in more detail back in November, so we're pushing hard on that. And certainly, driving efficiency from the new structure is a core focus for the Executive Board of Credit Suisse. And I think we would look to outperform against what we said before.

    沒有這一點,你就沒有什麼值得關注的了。我們顯然很高興現在與Chain IQ簽署了採購外包交易。我們實際上正在推動許多其他戰略成本措施,我在 11 月更詳細地討論了這些措施,因此我們正在努力推動這一點。當然,通過新結構提高效率是瑞士信貸執行委員會的核心關注點。而且我認為我們會尋求超越我們之前所說的表現。

  • But I think in the context of the compensation moves, I wanted to be very explicit that essentially, I think we will be at the top end of our guidance for 2022. But also, as I said before, that I'm not changing our guidance for '23 and '24.

    但我認為,在薪酬舉措的背景下,我想非常明確地指出,從本質上講,我認為我們將處於 2022 年指導方針的頂端。而且,正如我之前所說,我不會改變我們的'23 和 '24 指南。

  • I think on investment spending, I mean, I think, look, I think we're very committed to our core expansion plans in Wealth and for that matter, in the Investment Bank, too. But honestly, as you move forward over time, some things become more attractive and some things become less attractive.

    我認為關於投資支出,我的意思是,我認為,看,我認為我們非常致力於我們在財富方面的核心擴張計劃,就此而言,在投資銀行也是如此。但老實說,隨著時間的推移,隨著時間的推移,有些事情會變得更有吸引力,而有些事情會變得不那麼有吸引力。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • And the next question comes from the line of Stefan Stalmann from Autonomous Research.

    下一個問題來自 Autonomous Research 的 Stefan Stalmann。

  • Stefan-Michael Stalmann - Partner, Swiss and French Banks

    Stefan-Michael Stalmann - Partner, Swiss and French Banks

  • They actually center around the situation at the bank, the solvency situation. Last time, I think you mentioned that you would need to generate about CHF 6 billion of capital through 2027 -- end of 2027 given the current risk-weighted asset increases baked into the situation at the bank.

    他們實際上圍繞著銀行的情況,償付能力情況。上次,我認為您提到,鑑於銀行當前的風險加權資產增加,到 2027 年(2027 年底)您將需要產生約 60 億瑞士法郎的資本。

  • Given what has happened in the fourth quarter with the impairment and the change to the regulatory treatment of participation values, where would you say the CHF 6 billion number roughly stands now, please?

    鑑於第四季度發生的減值和參與價值監管處理的變化,您認為 60 億瑞士法郎的數字現在大致處於什麼位置?

  • And the second question related to this is -- have there been already material repatriations of capital or special dividends out of the subsidiaries of the bank into the bank in the fourth quarter? Or is that all still coming? And if it's still coming, it seems that something is holding up the process. I thought you were expecting substantial repatriations already in 2021. Could you maybe add a little bit of color around that, please?

    與此相關的第二個問題是——在第四季度,銀行的子公司是否已經將資本或特別股息大量匯回銀行?還是這一切還在繼續?如果它仍然來,似乎有什麼東西阻礙了這個過程。我以為您已經在 2021 年期待大量遣返。請您在這方面添加一點色彩,好嗎?

  • David R. Mathers - CFO & Member of the Executive Board

    David R. Mathers - CFO & Member of the Executive Board

  • Look, I think we obviously discussed this in some detail back in November. And I think in light of that, we obviously wanted to just give an update on where we stood at this particular point.

    看,我想我們顯然在 11 月詳細討論了這個問題。我認為有鑑於此,我們顯然只想提供有關我們在這一特定點上所處位置的最新信息。

  • To your specific question, the CHF 6 billion increase I said before, which is the gap to achieve a 12% target ratio with the full phase-in of the step-up in RWA weightings by '28, is that CHF 6 billion number, it's about CHF 9 billion at this point for 2028, assuming no change in the valuation of the subsidiaries. I mean, I think, Stefan, a sort of unspoken question, which I'll answer anyway really is why did we see this rate reduction in the valuation of the subsidiaries, which we also touched on in the earnings release, you'll see in there as well, is that was a reduction in the regulatory filter that FINMA imposed, really following a review of the value subsidiaries post Archegos and clearly also post the strategic review. So it was applied at the end of December, basically, and that's what led to this reduction in the parent ratio to 11.7% at the end of December. And as I said, 11.4%, including the phase-in from the 1st of January. So that's the context. And in terms of that look through to '28, that would mean the GAAP increases from CHF 6 billion to CHF 9 billion.

    對於您的具體問題,我之前說過的 60 億瑞士法郎的增長,即到 28 年全面逐步提高 RWA 權重,實現 12% 目標比率的差距,是 60 億瑞士法郎的數字,假設子公司的估值沒有變化,到 2028 年這一數字約為 90 億瑞士法郎。我的意思是,我認為,斯特凡,一個不言而喻的問題,無論如何我都會回答,這就是為什麼我們看到子公司估值出現這種下降,我們在收益發布中也提到了這一點,你會看到在那裡,這也是 FINMA 施加的監管過濾器的減少,實際上是在對 Archegos 之後的價值子公司進行審查之後,並且顯然也發布了戰略審查。所以它基本上是在 12 月底應用的,這就是導致 12 月底母公司比率下降到 11.7% 的原因。正如我所說,11.4%,包括從 1 月 1 日開始逐步實施。這就是上下文。就 28 年的情況而言,這意味著 GAAP 從 60 億瑞士法郎增加到 90 億瑞士法郎。

  • Now in terms of the timing of capital repatriations dividends, that there's been no change is the answer. I mean, we expected to receive a significant dividend from CSH USA at the end of last year in December, and we actually received that dividend. But that was in the plan, which I discussed on the 4th of November. We are expecting to see some very substantial numbers in 2022, which was part of the planning.

    現在就資本匯回股息的時間而言,答案沒有變化。我的意思是,我們預計將在去年 12 月底從 CSH USA 獲得大量股息,而我們實際上收到了該股息。但那是在計劃中,我在 11 月 4 日討論過。我們預計在 2022 年會看到一些非常可觀的數字,這是計劃的一部分。

  • Just in order, most notably, we have completed the decommissioning of Credit Suisse Securities Europe Limited, which is the sister entity of CSI. That is now a nonmaterial legal entity. So -- and it has significant trapped capital in it. So that's obviously quite a complex program to go through as we actually do that. And that's something we'll obviously be in discussion with the U.K. regulators about during the course of this year.

    最重要的是,我們已經完成了中證的姊妹實體瑞士信貸證券歐洲有限公司的退役。那現在是一個非物質法人實體。所以 - 它有大量的被困資本。所以這顯然是一個相當複雜的程序,因為我們實際上是這樣做的。這顯然是我們今年將與英國監管機構討論的問題。

  • Secondly, of course, we will expect to see further dividend from the U.S. I'm not going to comment, but it's probably somewhat material in terms of these numbers.

    其次,當然,我們希望看到美國的進一步紅利。我不打算發表評論,但就這些數字而言,這可能有點重要。

  • And then finally, we will receive, I won't expect, the normal dividend from Credit Suisse Schweiz, and then there's obviously other smaller numbers as well in the total of that.

    最後,我們將收到瑞士信貸的正常股息,我不會期望,然後顯然還有其他較小的數字。

  • I think in timing of that, basically, obviously, the Credit Suisse Schweiz dividend would come in first. And we would expect the U.S. dividend to come in towards later in the year and the restructuring of CECL, which I've talked about before, clearly would be subject to regulatory approval later on this year. So come way, I guess, somewhere during the year, but I'm not going to give an exact date.

    我認為,基本上,顯然,瑞士信貸瑞士股息將首先出現。我們預計美國的股息將在今年晚些時候到來,而我之前談到的 CECL 的重組顯然將在今年晚些時候獲得監管部門的批准。所以來吧,我猜,在一年中的某個地方,但我不會給出確切的日期。

  • But those plans are all the same as they were before, Stefan. I think the change for the 4th of November was that point I made before about the FINMA's decision to reduce the value of the regulatory filter as a consequence of the numbers of last year.

    但這些計劃都和以前一樣,斯特凡。我認為 11 月 4 日的變化是我之前關於 FINMA 決定根據去年的數字降低監管過濾器的價值的觀點。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • And the next question comes from the line of Andrew Coombs from Citi.

    下一個問題來自花旗的 Andrew Coombs。

  • Andrew Philip Coombs - Director

    Andrew Philip Coombs - Director

  • If I could ask one follow-up to David and then one broader question to Thomas. First on the follow-up to David, turning back to Jeremy's question, I think you said that of the CHF 500 million increase in compensation in 2022, about half is due to the amortization structure on that CHF 497 million one-off award.

    如果我可以向 David 提出一個後續問題,然後向 Thomas 提出一個更廣泛的問題。首先關於大衛的後續行動,回到傑里米的問題,我想你說在 2022 年增加的 5 億瑞士法郎的薪酬中,大約有一半是由於 4.97 億瑞士法郎一次性獎勵的攤銷結構。

  • Two parts. First is, can you just reiterate what the second half of the increase in compensation relates to? And with regard to that one-off award, how does the amortization structure then play out over 2023 and 2024 as well, please?

    兩部分。首先,您能否重申一下薪酬增加的後半部分與什麼有關?關於一次性獎勵,攤銷結構如何在 2023 年和 2024 年發揮作用?

  • My broader question to Thomas would be on Slide 34, where you talk about 2 real aims accelerating the revenue momentum and strengthening the risk culture. Do you think those 2 things go hand in hand? And the reason I ask is usually we hear from companies saying, we're going to take on a bit more risk to accelerate our revenue momentum or alternatively taking down risk levels, but perhaps moving to a higher payout ratio or something along those lines. The 2 things that you are flagging sound almost slightly contradictory. So interested in your broad thoughts on how you can achieve both at the same time.

    我對 Thomas 的更廣泛的問題將在幻燈片 34 上,您在其中談到 2 個真正的目標,即加速收入勢頭和加強風險文化。你認為這兩件事是齊頭並進的嗎?我問的原因通常是我們聽到公司說,我們將承擔更多風險以加速我們的收入勢頭,或者降低風險水平,但可能會轉向更高的派息率或類似的東西。你標記的兩件事聽起來幾乎有點矛盾。對您對如何同時實現兩者的廣泛想法很感興趣。

  • David R. Mathers - CFO & Member of the Executive Board

    David R. Mathers - CFO & Member of the Executive Board

  • First, your first question. I think in terms of the deferral impact. The strategic delivery award is a 3-year cliff-vested instrument. So in other words, the Compensation Committee will assess the progress that's been made during the course of '22, '23 and '24 in terms of the achievement of the strategic goals, which does include the achievement of the risk and compliance goals. And we'll then decide what the uplift in the value is. There are certain knockout clauses as well in terms of that instrument. So that's the instrument.

    首先,你的第一個問題。我認為就延期影響而言。戰略交付獎是一項為期 3 年的懸崖授予工具。因此,換句話說,薪酬委員會將評估在 22 年、23 年和 24 年期間在實現戰略目標方面取得的進展,其中確實包括風險和合規目標的實現。然後我們將決定價值的提升是什麼。就該文書而言,也有某些淘汰條款。所以這就是樂器。

  • In terms of the deferral treatment, as it's a 3-year cliff vest, cliff vest absent early retirement clauses, I'll come back to that, vest once -- run through the expense line under U.S. GAAP at 1/3, 1/3 and 1/3. But because certain individuals would be eligible for retirement, that pushes up the recognition if they become eligible in that year.

    在延期治療方面,因為它是一個 3 年的懸崖馬甲,沒有提前退休條款的懸崖馬甲,我會回到那個,馬甲一次 - 穿過美國公認會計原則下的費用線 1/3, 1/ 3 和 1/3。但由於某些人將有資格退休,如果他們在那一年符合資格,就會提高認可度。

  • So in practice, and it's a little bit of a complex calculation because it's population dependent, you'd expect around 50% of that CHF 500 million to flow through in 2022. And then it's obviously a smaller proportion in '23 and '24. So it will be something like 50%, 30%, 20%, but it depends very much on the retirement calculations. And that's obviously different from a level vest, and I'd be very happy, Andrew, to talk to you about level vesting amortization under U.S. GAAP separate, but I won't waste everyone's time at this point, but that's how it works.

    所以在實踐中,這是一個有點複雜的計算,因為它取決於人口,你預計 5 億瑞士法郎的 50% 將在 2022 年流過。然後在 23 年和 24 年顯然比例更小。所以這將是 50%、30%、20%,但這在很大程度上取決於退休計算。這顯然與水平背心不同,安德魯,我很高興與你討論美國公認會計原則下的水平歸屬攤銷,但我不會在這一點上浪費每個人的時間,但這就是它的工作原理。

  • But you asked a very good point on the second question, the other half of the number, which I've given in terms of guidance. And that is that Credit Suisse has historically operated quite high levels of deferral above that of our peers in Europe. And we would like to move back to a more normal deferral table. Clearly, that doesn't change the economic cost of bonus awards over the lifetime of those bonus awards, but it does mean that more flows through in the first year of that. And I said that's about the other half of this.

    但你在第二個問題上提出了一個很好的觀點,即我在指導方面給出的另一半。這就是瑞士信貸在歷史上的延期支付水平一直高於我們在歐洲的同行。我們想回到更正常的延期表。顯然,這不會改變獎金獎勵在這些獎金獎勵的整個生命週期內的經濟成本,但這確實意味著在第一年會有更多的資金流過。我說這就是另一半。

  • Clearly, there's an important caveat on that, Andrew, which is what is the variable compensation pool in total in 2022, which is clearly indetermined at this point. And therefore, there has to be some uncertainty around that guidance. But I think it's material enough that it's worth talking about and making clear, that you understand that does push us towards the top end of our guidance range for '22. Hopefully, that's okay, but I'll be more than happy to follow up afterwards, Andrew.

    顯然,對此有一個重要的警告,安德魯,即 2022 年的總可變薪酬池是多少,目前顯然還不確定。因此,該指南必須存在一些不確定性。但我認為它足夠重要,值得討論和明確,你明白這確實將我們推向了 22 年指導範圍的高端。希望沒關係,但我會很樂意之後跟進,安德魯。

  • Thomas P. Gottstein - Member of the Executive Board & CEO

    Thomas P. Gottstein - Member of the Executive Board & CEO

  • Okay. And Andrew, to your second question, no, I don't think there is any contradiction to that at all. And I would like to come from 2 angles.

    好的。安德魯,關於你的第二個問題,不,我認為這根本沒有任何矛盾。我想從兩個角度來。

  • First of all, what we've seen really in Q4 was the result of a series of steps we've taken during the year in terms of strengthening our leadership and governance in risk management in terms of recalibrating our risk appetite and reducing our risk positions starting, obviously, within the Investment Bank and Prime Services. But across frankly, the Board also exiting certain other businesses like GTS, emerging markets, reduced oil and gas exposures and overall RWA and leverage reduction since the end of the first quarter, as we showed between 10% and 12%. And as a consequence of that, we really saw in Q4, a very low activity in new business, and that has been very much also influenced by slower markets and -- but also somewhat inward focus, I would say, of the organization as we immediately implemented the new structure -- organizational structure, which followed the strategic review that we presented on the 4th of November.

    首先,我們在第四季度真正看到的是我們在這一年中採取的一系列措施的結果,這些措施是加強我們在風險管理方面的領導力和治理,以重新調整我們的風險偏好和減少我們的風險頭寸顯然,從投資銀行和 Prime Services 內部開始。但坦率地說,董事會也退出了某些其他業務,如 GTS、新興市場、減少石油和天然氣風險敞口以及自第一季度末以來的整體 RWA 和槓桿降低,正如我們所展示的 10% 和 12% 之間。因此,我們在第四季度確實看到了新業務的活躍度非常低,這在很大程度上也受到了市場放緩的影響,而且我想說的是,我們對組織的關注也有點內向立即實施了新的結構——組織結構,這是我們在 11 月 4 日提出的戰略審查之後的結果。

  • And then obviously, as a consequence of that, we are strengthening the risk culture with a much more disciplined approach around risk in both the first line and second line of defense, significant investments across risk and compliance, et cetera. And this all leads to -- or led to a real slowdown in Q4 and has now been really, I would say, embedded and has now laid the foundation for a very disciplined slow growth coming forward now in Q1 and beyond.

    顯然,因此,我們正在加強風險文化,圍繞第一道和第二道防線的風險採取更加自律的方法,在風險和合規方面進行重大投資,等等。而這一切都導致 - 或導致第四季度真正放緩,並且現在已經真正嵌入,現在已經為現在在第一季度及以後的非常有紀律的緩慢增長奠定了基礎。

  • And maybe more conceptually, I mean, banking is about risk management. It's not about avoiding risk. It's about proper risk management, and that's really what the Executive Board and including myself, are telling all our troops. We want to have disciplined approach to risk, but we want to do new business. So that's very clear. And in that sense, we see absolutely no contradiction when we say on one side, we want to further strengthen the risk culture, but at the same time, regaining some revenue momentum.

    也許從概念上講,我的意思是,銀行業是關於風險管理的。這不是為了規避風險。這是關於適當的風險管理,而這正是執行委員會和包括我自己在內的所有部隊正在告訴我們的。我們希望有紀律地應對風險,但我們希望開展新業務。所以這很清楚。從這個意義上說,當我們一方面說,我們希望進一步加強風險文化,但同時恢復一些收入動力時,我們認為絕對沒有矛盾。

  • Andrew Philip Coombs - Director

    Andrew Philip Coombs - Director

  • I guess just to follow up, and I understand all the points you're making. I think, the issue last year is that your employees necessarily didn't know how much risk they were able to take. And as a function of that, you've clearly seen a large downturn in revenues. Do you think with the steps that you've now put in place, there is a deep understanding across the franchise about exactly what risk tolerance levels are acceptable? And now from here, you're in a position where you can take that forward?

    我想只是為了跟進,我理解你提出的所有觀點。我認為,去年的問題是您的員工不一定知道他們能夠承擔多少風險。因此,您清楚地看到了收入的大幅下滑。您是否認為通過您現在實施的步驟,整個特許經營權對究竟什麼風險承受能力水平是可以接受的有深入的了解?現在從這裡開始,您處於可以向前推進的位置嗎?

  • Thomas P. Gottstein - Member of the Executive Board & CEO

    Thomas P. Gottstein - Member of the Executive Board & CEO

  • Absolutely. I think that has become very clear. We have recalibrated our risk appetite division by division and region by region. That broken down to country limits, to limits for each of the business areas and product areas. And we have a very clear framework on limits, and this is now very clear in the organization and fully signed up by all ExB members, both the old ExB members, but also the new ExB members. And I'm really very excited about Francesco on the Wealth Management side and Christian's collaboration together with David Wildermuth and the risk teams and compliance teams. So this has really been now starting to work very well.

    絕對地。我認為這已經變得非常清楚了。我們已經逐個部門和逐個地區重新調整了我們的風險偏好。細分為國家限制,每個業務領域和產品領域的限制。我們有一個非常明確的限制框架,現在組織中非常明確,所有 ExB 成員都完全簽署了協議,包括舊的 ExB 成員和新的 ExB 成員。我對財富管理方面的 Francesco 以及 Christian 與 David Wildermuth 以及風險團隊和合規團隊的合作感到非常興奮。所以現在這真的開始運作良好。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • And the next question comes from the line of Kian Abouhossein from JPMorgan.

    下一個問題來自摩根大通的 Kian Abouhossein。

  • Kian Abouhossein - MD and Head of the European Banks Equity Research Team

    Kian Abouhossein - MD and Head of the European Banks Equity Research Team

  • The first question is just coming back to the Credit Suisse AG parent bank, the CHF 7.6 billion versus your CHF 3.5 billion i.e., the additional CHF 7.6 billion. You mentioned regulatory filters. And I just wondered if you can give us a little bit more color on those?

    第一個問題剛剛回到瑞士信貸母銀行,76 億瑞士法郎與您的 35 億瑞士法郎,即額外的 76 億瑞士法郎。您提到了監管過濾器。我只是想知道你是否可以給我們更多的顏色?

  • And secondly, we haven't heard anything from FINMA on regulatory add-ons on the holding under Basel III, so your regulatory capital. And I just wonder, can you read anything from this CHF 7.6 billion towards what we should be thinking around FINMA add-ons? If you can maybe comment on that conceptually.

    其次,我們還沒有從 FINMA 那裡聽到任何關於巴塞爾協議 III 下控股的監管附加信息,所以你的監管資本。我只是想知道,您能從這 76 億瑞士法郎中了解我們應該圍繞 FINMA 附加組件考慮什麼嗎?如果您可以在概念上對此發表評論。

  • And then the second question is regarding your PB business. You indicated 2/3 of balances have been reduced. At the Investor Day, you talked about CHF 600 million of revenue loss, CHF 400 million of cost from what I recall. Could you tell us where we stand at this point in terms of revenue reductions and cost reductions? And even if I adjust my numbers within the IB, both in fixed income and equities and compare them to peers, you seem to be underperforming. Maybe you could just touch on that, again, should we just read that as a fourth quarter event, whether derisking? Or should we think we will see further potential relative performance differences against peers for a while?

    然後第二個問題是關於您的 PB 業務。您表示已減少 2/3 的餘額。在投資者日,您談到了 6 億瑞士法郎的收入損失和 4 億瑞士法郎的成本,據我所知。您能否告訴我們目前在減少收入和降低成本方面的立場?即使我在 IB 中調整了我在固定收益和股票方面的數據,並將它們與同行進行比較,你似乎表現不佳。也許您可以再次提及這一點,我們是否應該將其視為第四季度的事件,是否在冒險?或者我們是否應該認為我們會在一段時間內看到與同行的進一步潛在的相對性能差異?

  • David R. Mathers - CFO & Member of the Executive Board

    David R. Mathers - CFO & Member of the Executive Board

  • Shall I take the first question, Thomas?

    我要回答第一個問題嗎,托馬斯?

  • Thomas P. Gottstein - Member of the Executive Board & CEO

    Thomas P. Gottstein - Member of the Executive Board & CEO

  • Yes, please.

    是的,請。

  • David R. Mathers - CFO & Member of the Executive Board

    David R. Mathers - CFO & Member of the Executive Board

  • So I think, Kian, you're absolutely right. And by the way, the page that, just for everyone's benefit, is Page 43 of the earnings release. So just to cover that. So essentially, -- so yes, as part of the assessment of the financial plans of the entities and particularly post the strategy review, we did revalue them by about CHF 3.5 billion. And obviously, we've also taken into account in the course of the year, the adverse impact on the entities of the Archegos loss because obviously, that was actually suffered in our subsidiaries and not in the parent itself.

    所以我認為,Kian,你是絕對正確的。順便說一句,為了每個人的利益,該頁面是收益發布的第 43 頁。所以只是為了涵蓋這一點。所以本質上,——所以是的,作為評估實體財務計劃的一部分,特別是在戰略審查後,我們確實將它們重新估值了約 35 億瑞士法郎。顯然,我們在這一年中也考慮到了 Archegos 損失對實體的不利影響,因為很明顯,這實際上是在我們的子公司而不是母公司本身中遭受的。

  • However, I think your point is more the application by the FINMA on a cap on the regulatory value for capital purposes. FINMA is entitled to do that under the 2017 decree to put a cap or to provide a different number then valued by us. And that was something they did do on the basis of the numbers projected forward, and they employ an external assessor to do so. I don't think you can read anything more into it than that. Clearly, that does reduce the value of the Clearly, that does reduce the value of the subsidiaries for capital purposes at the end of the year. That's the 11.7% number and then 11.4% reflects the phasing of the decree basically there afterwards.

    但是,我認為您的觀點更多的是 FINMA 對資本監管價值上限的申請。根據 2017 年法令,FINMA 有權這樣做,以設置上限或提供我們評估的不同數字。這是他們根據預測的數字所做的事情,他們聘請了外部評估員來做這件事。我不認為你能讀到比這更多的東西。顯然,這確實降低了 Clearly 的價值,這確實降低了年底子公司的資本價值。那是 11.7% 的數字,然後 11.4% 反映了該法令基本上隨後的分階段。

  • Clearly, that does obviously provide a reason why what we've talked about before in terms of the distribution of capital being very important and why the redistribution of capital within the bank is also important, too, which is really comes back to what I said to Stefan earlier, which is clearly, Credit Suisse Schweiz has been a regular source of dividends over the years. But essentially, we obviously need all of our subsidiaries to pay capital back to the parent, basically, and that's a critical process. And incidentally, by the way we have been very successful in terms of that.

    顯然,這確實提供了一個原因,為什麼我們之前談到的資本分配非常重要,為什麼銀行內部的資本再分配也很重要,這真的回到了我所說的對於 Stefan 早些時候來說,這很明顯,瑞士信貸多年來一直是股息的定期來源。但本質上,我們顯然需要我們所有的子公司向母公司償還資本,基本上,這是一個關鍵的過程。順便說一句,我們在這方面非常成功。

  • I think go back to the comment that I made back at in the fourth, I think we've seen about GBP 12 billion of dividends and about EUR 12 billion of capital flowing back into the parent over the last 3 or 4 years. But it is obviously important that we complete that during the course of the current year. And as I said, in order of importance, it is the CECL, which is now a nonmaterial legal entity and has quite substantial capital balances. I think you can dig out the accounts and see them, but the order of CHF 6 billion to CHF 8 billion depending on how much we need for the dormant activities. And then obviously, the U.S. numbers and then Credit Suisse Schweiz, which, as I said before, has been a consistent dividend payer since it was formed back at the end of 2016. So I hope that helps answer the question. Kian, do you want to just have a follow-on that? Just in case there's anything else I can help with before we move to the second question.

    我想回到我在第四次發表的評論,我認為在過去 3 或 4 年中,我們已經看到大約 120 億英鎊的股息和大約 120 億歐元的資本回流到母公司。但顯然很重要的是,我們要在今年完成這項工作。正如我所說,按照重要性排序,它是 CECL,它現在是一個非物質法律實體,擁有相當可觀的資本餘額。我認為您可以挖掘賬戶並查看它們,但 60 億瑞士法郎到 80 億瑞士法郎的數量取決於我們對休眠活動的需求量。然後很明顯,美國的數字,然後是瑞士信貸,正如我之前所說,自 2016 年底成立以來,它一直是一個持續的股息支付者。所以我希望這有助於回答這個問題。 Kian,你想要一個後續嗎?以防在我們轉到第二個問題之前還有什麼我可以幫忙的。

  • Kian Abouhossein - MD and Head of the European Banks Equity Research Team

    Kian Abouhossein - MD and Head of the European Banks Equity Research Team

  • For David. Just is there -- clearly, there's expectation that we see some FINMA add-ons. And could we see this adjustment on top of your adjustment on the Swiss parent Bank AG. Just wondering, is there any read across that we can take in terms of FINMA add-on? And if you can give us a bit of color around that.

    對於大衛。就在那裡——顯然,我們期望看到一些 FINMA 附加組件。我們能否在您對瑞士母公司 Bank AG 的調整之上看到這種調整。只是想知道,我們是否可以閱讀有關 FINMA 附加組件的內容?如果你能給我們一些顏色。

  • David R. Mathers - CFO & Member of the Executive Board

    David R. Mathers - CFO & Member of the Executive Board

  • Can't really comment. It is a separate process. What I would say in terms of helpful guidance at this point is for the group as a whole, this is not a parent issue per se. For the group as a whole, we expect around CHF 6.5 billion of methodology changes coming through in terms of the RWA numbers for 2022. Just under half of that is our risk add-ons in respect to the litigation amounts. But I think clearly, I think one cannot rule out that there will be further more direct add-ons in terms of RWA as this process actually works through. But there's nothing I can give any particular guidance at this point, basically to help you out, Kian, sorry.

    實在沒法評論。這是一個單獨的過程。在這一點上,我要說的有用指導是針對整個團隊的,這本身不是家長問題。對於整個集團而言,我們預計 2022 年 RWA 數字方面將發生約 65 億瑞士法郎的方法變更。其中不到一半是我們在訴訟金額方面的風險附加值。但我清楚地認為,我認為不能排除在 RWA 方面會有更多直接的附加組件,因為這個過程實際上是有效的。但是在這一點上我無法提供任何特別的指導,基本上是為了幫助你,Kian,對不起。

  • Kian Abouhossein - MD and Head of the European Banks Equity Research Team

    Kian Abouhossein - MD and Head of the European Banks Equity Research Team

  • Sorry, on the PB business, if you could help us on the numbers.

    抱歉,關於 PB 業務,如果您能幫助我們解決數字問題。

  • Thomas P. Gottstein - Member of the Executive Board & CEO

    Thomas P. Gottstein - Member of the Executive Board & CEO

  • Apology, -- can you repeat?

    道歉,——你能重複一遍嗎?

  • Kian Abouhossein - MD and Head of the European Banks Equity Research Team

    Kian Abouhossein - MD and Head of the European Banks Equity Research Team

  • Sorry, on the prime brokerage business, you indicated 2/3 of the, I think, balances down, but you also gave an indication of CHF 600 million of revenues, CHF 400 million of cost to be reduced in 2022. I just wonder -- I assume some of that is already in the numbers? Or should we think about the numbers getting bigger?

    抱歉,關於大宗經紀業務,我認為您表示有 2/3 的餘額下降,但您也表示 2022 年將減少 6 億瑞士法郎的收入和 4 億瑞士法郎的成本。我只是想知道 - - 我假設其中一些已經在數字中了?還是我們應該考慮數字越來越大?

  • Thomas P. Gottstein - Member of the Executive Board & CEO

    Thomas P. Gottstein - Member of the Executive Board & CEO

  • I was just going to tackle that second part of your question. So where do we stand? So as we said, 2/3 of the balances have been reduced. And in terms of your related question on market share development and how we see it also into the Q1 and '22, I would say the following. First of all, if you take the full year, I think our market shares and relative performance market shares and relative performance versus our peers was, I think, very strong in SP and more broadly in credit. Left in equity capital markets, M&A was very solid. But clearly, on the GTS side and within that, some of the macro and FX businesses probably underperformed.

    我只是要解決你問題的第二部分。那麼我們站在哪裡呢?正如我們所說,減少了 2/3 的餘額。關於你關於市場份額發展的相關問題以及我們如何看待它在第一季度和 22 年的情況,我想說以下幾點。首先,如果你考慮全年,我認為我們的市場份額和相對錶現市場份額和相對錶現與我們的同行相比,我認為,在 SP 和更廣泛的信貸方面非常強勁。留在股權資本市場,併購非常穩固。但顯然,在 GTS 方面和內部,一些宏觀和外匯業務可能表現不佳。

  • And then there is obviously the whole equities business where starting from the second quarter, we have not only reduced our prime balances, but also had some negative effect on cash equities. We had a very strong performance in equity derivatives for the full year. And I would say equity capital markets was obviously strong for a long time up to, I would say, second, third quarter in IPOs. But then clearly, fourth quarter, the SPAC -- or I would say, second half, the SPAC activity really slowed down quite markedly. And as a consequence, on a year-on-year comparison, the fourth quarter to fourth quarter last year or fourth quarter '20 was clearly an underperformance because of the lower SPAC activity.

    然後顯然整個股票業務從第二季度開始,我們不僅減少了主要餘額,而且對現金股票也產生了一些負面影響。全年我們在股票衍生品方面的表現非常強勁。我會說股票資本市場在很長一段時間內都表現得很強勁,我想說的是,在 IPO 的第二、第三季度。但很明顯,第四季度,SPAC——或者我會說,下半年,SPAC 的活動確實顯著放緩。因此,與去年同期相比,去年第四季度至第四季度或 20 年第四季度顯然表現不佳,因為 SPAC 活動較低。

  • So going forward, I think we are very well positioned in credit in SP as well as in M&A and where we continue to invest. LevFin, we do think that we are also very well positioned. But with the higher interest rates coming, we think that there will be some slowdown in financing and LevFin activity. And otherwise, in equities, we continue to invest in our technology and AES business as well as in equity derivatives, where we continue to see a good momentum.

    因此,展望未來,我認為我們在 SP 以及併購以及我們繼續投資的信貸方面處於非常有利的地位。 LevFin,我們確實認為我們也處於非常有利的位置。但隨著利率上升,我們認為融資和 LevFin 活動將有所放緩。否則,在股票方面,我們繼續投資於我們的技術和 AES 業務以及股票衍生品,我們繼續看到良好的勢頭。

  • So that's how I would say we are developing in terms of investments and market shares. Anything you would like to add, David? Okay.

    這就是我所說的我們在投資和市場份額方面的發展。大衛,你有什麼要補充的嗎?好的。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • The next question comes from the line of Benjamin Goy from Deutsche Bank.

    下一個問題來自德意志銀行的 Benjamin Goy。

  • Benjamin Goy - Research Analyst

    Benjamin Goy - Research Analyst

  • Two questions, please, one on cost and one on your RM hiring pipeline. So first on cost you highlighted the CHF 17 billion is at the upper end of the range. And then you get some incremental benefit as you outlined in '23 and '24 from this CHF 500 million vesting schedule. But still want to double check given we are at inflationary times, you want to hire more people and ideally, revenues grow. So maybe you can speak about the '23, '24 measures a bit more. Why you're not, so to say, further increasing when you're already at the upper end of the cost range this year?

    請提兩個問題,一個是關於成本的,一個是關於你的 RM 招聘渠道的。因此,首先在成本方面,您強調 170 億瑞士法郎處於該範圍的上限。然後你會從這個 5 億瑞士法郎的歸屬計劃中獲得一些增量收益,正如你在 23 年和 24 年所概述的那樣。但仍然要仔細檢查,因為我們正處於通貨膨脹時期,你想僱用更多的人,理想情況下,收入增長。因此,也許您可以多談談 '23、'24 措施。可以這麼說,當你今年已經處於成本範圍的上限時,為什麼你不進一步增加呢?

  • And then secondly, you mentioned the Relationship Manager hiring APAC but it was good, IWM is down. But maybe you can comment on the pipeline and how this process of RM hiring is progressing this year? Or is it more that -- a bit more stability is needed until we see a significant acceleration towards the target?

    其次,您提到了招聘亞太地區的客戶關係經理,但這很好,IWM 倒閉了。但是,也許您可以評論一下管道以及今年 RM 招聘過程的進展情況?還是更多——在我們看到向目標顯著加速之前需要更多的穩定性?

  • David R. Mathers - CFO & Member of the Executive Board

    David R. Mathers - CFO & Member of the Executive Board

  • Thank you very much, Benjamin. So Thomas, I'll take the first question?

    非常感謝,本傑明。那麼Thomas,我會回答第一個問題嗎?

  • Thomas P. Gottstein - Member of the Executive Board & CEO

    Thomas P. Gottstein - Member of the Executive Board & CEO

  • Yes.

    是的。

  • David R. Mathers - CFO & Member of the Executive Board

    David R. Mathers - CFO & Member of the Executive Board

  • Well, look, I think, firstly, in terms of the expense guidance, I think there's nothing much I'd add to what you said, Benjamin, around 2022. And we've obviously covered CV in some detail.

    好吧,看,我認為,首先,就費用指導而言,本傑明,我認為在 2022 年左右,我沒有什麼要補充的。顯然,我們已經詳細介紹了 CV。

  • In terms of '23 and '24, I just cast your mind back to the Investor Day. And we did include the same numbers on Slide 27, which is the structural cost measures we're pushing through. It's just the nature of these reorganizations that you don't see that much of the benefit in the first year. The prime benefits in terms of the cost reductions will only really start to flow through later this year as we actually complete the transition of our clients off the platform. Until then, we need to maintain that platform for the benefit of our clients whilst they're finishing it.

    就 23 年和 24 年而言,我只是讓你回想起投資者日。我們確實在幻燈片 27 中包含了相同的數字,這是我們正在推行的結構性成本措施。正是這些重組的性質,您在第一年看不到那麼多好處。降低成本方面的主要好處將在今年晚些時候真正開始體現,因為我們實際上完成了客戶從平台的過渡。在那之前,我們需要在客戶完成該平台的同時維護該平台以造福於我們的客戶。

  • Equally, the procurement savings coming from the Chain IQ deal, yes, they start this year because the whole relationship goes live later this quarter. But they only actually build up over time, and they continue to accrete in '23 and '24 as we actually move forward. I think beyond that, and I think we obviously will give updates later this year. But I think it will be very important to talk about the benefits we expect from the centralization of IT and some of the other organizational measures, all of which really only flow through in '23 and '24 from a materiality point of view.

    同樣,來自 Chain IQ 交易的採購節省,是的,他們從今年開始,因為整個關係在本季度晚些時候上線。但它們實際上只會隨著時間的推移而增加,並且隨著我們實際向前發展,它們會在 23 年和 24 年繼續增長。我認為除此之外,我認為我們顯然會在今年晚些時候提供更新。但我認為談論我們期望從 IT 集中化和其他一些組織措施中獲得的好處非常重要,從重要性的角度來看,所有這些實際上只在 23 年和 24 年才會體現出來。

  • And if you look back what we said, we're talking here about structural cost saves of CHF 1 billion to CHF 1.5 billion by '24, of which CHF 300 million comes through only in this year. So that's, as you might say, is the mathematical underpinning or the result of that basically. So I think that's why we can make this comment that I think we are going to see pressure in '22 as a consequence of the CV effect from the deferred compensation awards and the normalization of CV. But there afterwards, basically, I think we are reiterating our guidance for '23 and '24.

    如果你回顧一下我們所說的,我們在這裡談論的是到 24 年結構性成本節省 10 億至 15 億瑞士法郎,其中 3 億瑞士法郎僅在今年實現。所以,正如你可能會說的,這基本上是數學基礎或結果。所以我認為這就是為什麼我們可以發表這樣的評論,我認為由於遞延薪酬獎勵的 CV 效應和 CV 的正常化,我們將在 22 年看到壓力。但在那之後,基本上,我認為我們正在重申我們對 '23 和 '24 的指導。

  • Thomas P. Gottstein - Member of the Executive Board & CEO

    Thomas P. Gottstein - Member of the Executive Board & CEO

  • So the Relationship Manager hiring, as you know, our plan is for the next 3 years, about 500. That's about 170 per year. And if you look at what we did last year in APAC, that gives you an indication roughly where we think regionally, we will continue to grow in our plan. So 40% to 50% in APAC, about 25% to 30% in the former IWM regions, that is Middle East, that's Europe, that's Latin America and the rest in Switzerland.

    如您所知,招聘客戶關係經理,我們的計劃是未來 3 年,大約 500 人。每年大約 170 人。如果你看看我們去年在亞太地區所做的事情,你就會大致了解我們在區域內的想法,我們將繼續在我們的計劃中發展。因此,亞太地區為 40% 至 50%,前 IWM 地區約為 25% 至 30%,即中東、歐洲、拉丁美洲和瑞士。

  • Now clearly, the slowdown that we have seen in the last few months in Asia will probably mean that the growth in 2022 in terms of hiring, we'll have to look at and we have to see how the market will further develop. And I cannot exclude that we will be a bit more flexible about the hiring in that region in 2022. But the plan is a 3-year plan. It's a long-term plan. And we'll have to see how China and the rest of Asia will develop over the next few months, and we will adapt accordingly. But in principle, that's kind of the regional breakdown of the growth that we are planning to implement.

    現在很明顯,過去幾個月我們在亞洲看到的放緩可能意味著 2022 年招聘方面的增長,我們將不得不關注市場將如何進一步發展。我不能排除我們將在 2022 年對該地區的招聘更加靈活。但該計劃是一個 3 年計劃。這是一個長期的計劃。我們將不得不看看中國和亞洲其他地區在未來幾個月將如何發展,我們將做出相應的調整。但原則上,這是我們計劃實施的增長的區域細分。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • And the next question comes from Daniele Brupbacher from UBS.

    下一個問題來自瑞銀的 Daniele Brupbacher。

  • Daniele Brupbacher - MD, Banking Analyst and Head of Equities Research Switzerland

    Daniele Brupbacher - MD, Banking Analyst and Head of Equities Research Switzerland

  • You mentioned that group risk review, which I think is important. Can you tell us in that context, the Greensill report and the conclusions out of that report, is that also part of that, i.e. are all the conclusions and the decisions taken in that sense? And let's say, at least the immediate reactions and actions are taken out of that also in terms of, I don't know, responsibilities, et cetera?

    你提到了小組風險審查,我認為這很重要。您能否在這種情況下告訴我們,Greensill 報告和該報告中的結論是否也是其中的一部分,即所有結論和決定都是在這個意義上做出的嗎?讓我們說,至少在我不知道的責任等方面,立即的反應和行動也被排除在外了嗎?

  • And then sorry, just very briefly on the parent bank again. David, could you give us the fully loaded ratio versus the 11.4%, is that still above 10% or now a little bit below that? And in that context, the Archegos add-on CHF 1.9 billion, 70 bps more or less at the group level. Is that also relevant for the parent? I guess the domestic add-on for mortgages is not because that's in the Swiss entity. And if you could just give us some numbers there and probably the regulatory filter, the CHF 7.6 billion you mentioned, doesn't mean you basically FINMA halved the regulatory still to benefit. Is that how I should read it?

    然後抱歉,再次簡要介紹一下母銀行。大衛,你能否給我們提供滿載率與 11.4% 的比率,是仍然高於 10% 還是現在略低於 10%?在這種情況下,Archegos 附加 19 億瑞士法郎,在集團層面或多或少 70 個基點。這也與父母有關嗎?我想國內的抵押貸款附加並不是因為那是在瑞士實體中。如果你能給我們一些數字,可能還有監管過濾器,你提到的 76 億瑞士法郎,並不意味著你基本上 FINMA 將監管減半仍然受益。我應該這樣讀嗎?

  • Thomas P. Gottstein - Member of the Executive Board & CEO

    Thomas P. Gottstein - Member of the Executive Board & CEO

  • Okay. Let me start with the first question, and then David will take the second question.

    好的。讓我從第一個問題開始,然後大衛將回答第二個問題。

  • So the risk review is separate from the supply chain funds and also from Archegos. So as part of the work we went through over the 9 months, I would say, since April to the end of the year under the leadership of the Tactical Crisis Committee, initially, that was with the former Chief Risk Officer -- sorry, the former Chair of the Risk Committee on the Board and then subsequently under the leadership of our former Chairman, we really had 3 themes that this Tactical Crisis Committee looked at. One was Archegos agreed across, one was supply chain funds and agreed across and the third one was the risk review. And the risk review was really a very systematic review of all balance sheet items and off-balance sheet items. It was really a very detailed analysis so to speak, vertically through the balance sheet and -- but then also looking at each of the divisions and regions, looking at special themes, special businesses, whether it was in Investment Banking, whether it was in Corporate Banking, whether it was Level 3 assets, et cetera.

    因此,風險審查與供應鏈基金以及 Archegos 是分開的。因此,作為我們過去 9 個月工作的一部分,我想說的是,從 4 月到今年年底,在戰術危機委員會的領導下,最初是與前首席風險官一起工作的——對不起,董事會風險委員會的前任主席,然後在我們的前任主席的領導下,我們確實有 3 個主題,這個戰術危機委員會研究了。一個是 Archegos 同意的,一個是供應鏈基金並同意的,第三個是風險審查。風險審查實際上是對所有資產負債表項目和表外項目的非常系統的審查。可以這麼說,這確實是一個非常詳細的分析,垂直於資產負債表,而且——但同時也查看了每個部門和地區,查看了特殊主題、特殊業務,無論是在投資銀行,還是在企業銀行業務,無論是 3 級資產等。

  • So this -- these 3 themes really were part of our work that we went through with the Tactical Crisis Committee week-by-week in the first phase and then every second week thereafter. So the risk review was really separate from the supply chain fund. And all 3 have essentially been completed.

    所以這 - 這三個主題確實是我們工作的一部分,我們在第一階段每週與戰術危機委員會一起進行,然後每兩週進行一次。因此,風險審查確實與供應鏈基金分開。並且所有 3 基本上都已完成。

  • As we said already earlier, the Archegos -- with the Archegos report coming out, the Paul, Weiss report at the time, then the risk review was completed in the fourth quarter, and we have now also completed the review by the Board with respect to the report on the supply chain finance fund, which was commissioned to Deloitte and a Swiss law firm. So all 3 themes have really been completed. And from that perspective, also the Tactical Crisis committee is now essentially being phased out. David, the parent?

    正如我們之前已經說過的,Archegos——隨著 Archegos 報告出來,當時的 Paul, Weiss 報告,然後在第四季度完成了風險審查,我們現在也完成了董事會的審查委託德勤和一家瑞士律師事務所撰寫的關於供應鏈金融基金的報告。所以這3個主題真的都完成了。從這個角度來看,戰術危機委員會現在也基本上被淘汰了。大衛,父母?

  • David R. Mathers - CFO & Member of the Executive Board

    David R. Mathers - CFO & Member of the Executive Board

  • Yes. On the second point, I mean, I think this is the other -- so as I said in answer to Stefan's question before, the look through capital required to be accumulated in the parent by '28 has increased from CHF 6 billion to CHF 9 billion. That means the equivalent look-through ratio is, I think, somewhere between 9.5% and 9.6% actually, Daniele. So that's the look-through ratio as of now, basically, in terms of that, so just below the 10% level. Clearly, it's the transitional ratio, which is the 11.7% and 11.4%, which is relevant in terms of the capital measures.

    是的。關於第二點,我的意思是,我認為這是另一點——正如我之前在回答 Stefan 的問題時所說,到 28 年需要在母公司積累的透視資本已從 60 億瑞士法郎增加到 9 瑞士法郎十億。這意味著等效的透視率實際上在 9.5% 到 9.6% 之間,Daniele。所以這就是目前的透視率,基本上,就這一點而言,略低於 10% 的水平。顯然,這是過渡比率,即 11.7% 和 11.4%,這與資本措施有關。

  • I think your second question then was around the Pillar 2 add-on in respect of Greensill supply chain funds. That was, as I said, applied originally by FINMA to the parent. It's still sitting there as well as the group. So that for them means you still got a 60 basis point increase against the 10% minimum for the parent, again, on a transitional basis for that, basically, that's still sitting there. And I think at some point, that will have to be decided where it sits within the legal entity structure, but it's still sitting there at this particular moment.

    我認為您的第二個問題是關於 Greensill 供應鏈基金的第二支柱附加項。正如我所說,那是 FINMA 最初向父母申請的。它和小組一樣仍然坐在那裡。因此,對於他們來說,這意味著您仍然可以獲得 60 個基點的增長,而母公司的最低 10%,同樣,在過渡的基礎上,基本上,這仍然存在。我認為在某個時候,必須決定它在法律實體結構中的位置,但在這個特定時刻它仍然存在。

  • In terms of your third point, which is around the Tactical cyclical add-on, which the Swiss National Bank has decided to reimpose with effect from September, you're absolutely correct. Because there's de minimis residential mortgages booked in the parent, it has a minute impact of 0.2 basis points to be exact of the (inaudible) cyclical add-on, whereas the (inaudible) cyclical add-on for the group is about 24 basis points. And obviously, for CS Schweiz, it's obviously considerably more than that because that's what actually sits, but it does -- it doesn't affect the parent requirements.

    關於您的第三點,即瑞士國家銀行已決定從 9 月起重新實施的戰術週期性附加組件,您是絕對正確的。因為在母公司登記了最低限度的住宅抵押貸款,它對(聽不清)週期性附加因素有 0.2 個基點的微小影響,而該集團的(聽不清)週期性附加因素大約是 24 個基點.顯然,對於 CS Schweiz 來說,它顯然遠不止於此,因為這就是實際存在的內容,但確實如此——它不會影響父母的要求。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • And the next question comes from the line of Andrew Lim from Societe Generale.

    下一個問題來自法國興業銀行的 Andrew Lim。

  • Andrew Lim - Equity Analyst

    Andrew Lim - Equity Analyst

  • You said quite little about the litigation that you incurred. Just reading through the notes, it seems like it might have arisen due to a change in your settlement strategy for the legacy issues. I was wondering if you could give a bit more color on that and confirm that it is due to RMBS legacy issues? And if we still have any other outstanding cases going forward? So that's my first question.

    你對你招致的訴訟只說很少。只是通讀筆記,似乎它可能是由於您對遺留問題的解決策略發生變化而引起的。我想知道您是否可以對此進行更多說明並確認這是由於RMBS遺留問題造成的?如果我們還有其他懸而未決的案例?所以這是我的第一個問題。

  • And then my second question is regarding your strategy for resolution of the SCF finance funds and the outstanding amount there, it's still quite material. In terms of timeline and strategy, are you looking to see what happens with your insurance claims. And then how long would that take to resolve? And then if you are unsuccessful in claiming against insurance, what would be your strategy then? Perhaps you might not be able to give an answer, but I guess my concern here is that you're having investors sitting on losses for several years now, and this is not good for your franchise, of course, it doesn't really give a great message here. So just keen to see what your thinking is here.

    然後我的第二個問題是關於您解決 SCF 融資基金的策略以及那裡的未償金額,它仍然非常重要。在時間表和策略方面,您是否希望了解您的保險索賠會發生什麼。然後需要多長時間才能解決?然後,如果您對保險索賠不成功,那麼您的策略是什麼?也許您可能無法給出答案,但我想我在這裡擔心的是,您讓投資者多年來一直處於虧損狀態,這對您的特許經營權不利,當然,它並沒有真正給出這裡有一個很好的信息。所以只是想看看你的想法是什麼。

  • David R. Mathers - CFO & Member of the Executive Board

    David R. Mathers - CFO & Member of the Executive Board

  • Perhaps if I kick off just on litigation. Look, I think there's a limit to what I'm going to be able to say. I mean, we do make a point of not commenting on issues which are clearly under active discussion, negotiation about this. What we clearly have said is the charge that we took in the fourth quarter primarily relates to current or former Investment Banking activities. And that clearly does include the RMBS cases, but I think it's also fair to say that we did sweep up a larger number of smaller cases, shall we say, if that's helpful.

    也許如果我只是從訴訟開始。聽著,我想我能說的話是有限度的。我的意思是,我們確實強調不對顯然正在積極討論和談判的問題發表評論。我們清楚地說的是我們在第四季度收取的費用主要與當前或以前的投資銀行業務有關。這顯然包括RMBS案件,但我認為公平地說,我們確實清理了更多的小案件,容我們說,如果這有幫助的話。

  • I'm not sure I'd necessarily define it as an entire change in terms of litigation strategy. But I think what we have seen in some of these cases are very long standing. And I think there has been a willingness on both sides, as you might say, to reach a resolution of these things at levels which are, shall we say, more satisfactory. And therefore, we have accrued towards closing out those transactions. So yes, I think that you will see the number of active cases actually dropping. But there still is some significant litigation outstanding.

    我不確定我是否一定會將其定義為訴訟策略方面的整體變化。但我認為我們在其中一些案例中看到的情況已經很長時間了。而且我認為,正如你可能會說的那樣,雙方都願意在更令人滿意的水平上解決這些問題。因此,我們已經累積完成這些交易。所以是的,我認為你會看到活躍病例的數量實際上在下降。但仍有一些重大訴訟未決。

  • And I would just draw your attention to the fact we have disclosed the RPL in our earnings statement, that is 0 to CHF 1.6 billion. And you will note that was 0 to CHF 1.4 billion. I'm not going to comment, but I think just aware of that. So we still do have a significant litigations open and just to be aware of that point.

    我只想提請您注意我們在收益表中披露了 RPL,即 0 到 16 億瑞士法郎。你會注意到這是 0 到 14 億瑞士法郎。我不打算發表評論,但我認為只是意識到這一點。因此,我們仍然有重大訴訟未決,只是要注意這一點。

  • Thomas P. Gottstein - Member of the Executive Board & CEO

    Thomas P. Gottstein - Member of the Executive Board & CEO

  • And with respect to our strategy on the supply chain front, it continues what we have been describing also over the last few months. It's really on 2 levels. One is on the recovery. And within that, we also have 2 levels, namely the focus areas of the obligors and the non focus areas plus the insurance. So that's a process that is ongoing. We have a large team of internal and external legal and other experts as we are pursuing the recovery of the underlying notes and balances.

    關於我們在供應鏈方面的戰略,它延續了我們在過去幾個月中一直在描述的內容。真的是2個級別。一是關於復蘇。在這之中,我們也有兩個層次,即債務人的重點領域和非重點領域加上保險。這是一個正在進行的過程。我們擁有一支由內部和外部法律及其他專家組成的龐大團隊,因為我們正在追回相關票據和余額。

  • And secondly, we have, as you know, started a goodwill program for our Wealth Management clients who have been investing and that has been a very successful exercise where we provide fee waivers and other programs, which has had a lot of traction and where we're making very good progress. And in some instances, actually increased our share of wallet with these clients. So that is really the strategy to continue the work on both of these elements, i.e., recovery of the underlying assets under the goodwill program.

    其次,如您所知,我們已經為我們一直在投資的財富管理客戶啟動了一項善意計劃,這是一項非常成功的活動,我們提供費用減免和其他計劃,這具有很大的吸引力並且我們'正在取得很好的進展。在某些情況下,實際上增加了我們在這些客戶中的錢包份額。因此,這確實是繼續處理這兩個要素的策略,即在商譽計劃下收回基礎資產。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • And the next question comes from the line of Amit Goel from Barclays.

    下一個問題來自巴克萊的 Amit Goel。

  • Amit Goel - Co-Head of European Banks Equity Research

    Amit Goel - Co-Head of European Banks Equity Research

  • So two questions. The first one, just in relation to the commentary or guidance for the start of this year. Please, could you just give a little bit more color in terms of -- I think the comment was the weak start to the year, across the -- just how that splits across the different businesses and potentially how it compares perhaps rather than to 2021, but 2020 or 2019?

    所以兩個問題。第一個,僅與今年年初的評論或指導有關。拜託,你能不能多說一點——我認為這條評論是今年的疲軟開端,跨越了——只是它如何在不同的業務中分裂,以及它可能如何比較,而不是與 2021 年相比,但是 2020 年還是 2019 年?

  • And the second question, maybe a clarification. But on the additional award, the CHF 497 million, I wasn't sure if that was a kind of a fair value. So I was just wondering if the group were to hit its targets, would that number be considerably larger and/or how much could it potentially total?

    第二個問題,也許是一個澄清。但是對於額外的獎金,4.97 億瑞士法郎,我不確定這是否是一種公允價值。所以我只是想知道該小組是否要達到其目標,這個數字會大大增加和/或可能總計多少?

  • David R. Mathers - CFO & Member of the Executive Board

    David R. Mathers - CFO & Member of the Executive Board

  • Very good question, Amit. Shall I take the second one first? Just in terms of the award of CHF 497 million I mean this will be disclosed in the compensation report. But just to dimension it, it's not actually a fair value, that's the par value. And the upside on this award is plus 50% and it's -- but it's -- that's at the discretion of the Compensation Committee. And basically -- and we will give more detail on March 10. But essentially, the criteria fall into delivery of the risk and compliance and control goals, point one. And obviously, delivery of some of the other key profit metrics, point two by 2024. So that's the upside in terms of this. It's not for those, obviously, you have a history of us, it's not a multiplier type instrument that you may have seen in the past, basically, but there is upside and it's clearly linked to both the risk remediation, risk culture point as well as the profit goals we actually laid out in GSR.

    非常好的問題,阿米特。我要先拿第二個嗎?僅就 4.97 億瑞士法郎的獎勵而言,我的意思是這將在薪酬報告中披露。但只是為了衡量它,它實際上並不是一個公允價值,而是面值。這個獎勵的好處是加 50%,它是——但它是——由薪酬委員會酌情決定。基本上——我們將在 3 月 10 日提供更多細節。但基本上,標準屬於風險、合規和控制目標的交付,第一點。顯然,到 2024 年,其他一些關鍵利潤指標的交付將達到第二點。所以這就是有利的一面。這不適合那些,顯然,你有我們的歷史,它不是你過去可能見過的乘數類型的工具,基本上,但有好處,它顯然與風險補救、風險文化點有關作為我們在金沙江實際制定的利潤目標。

  • And I would say there are also knockout clauses to the downside, but we'll give more details on that on March 10. So hopefully, that helps you in terms of thinking about that instrument basically.

    我想說還有一些不利的淘汰條款,但我們將在 3 月 10 日提供更多細節。所以希望這能幫助你從根本上思考該工具。

  • I think your second question was really about the sort of start of January. Look, I think we're still in it 4 or 5 weeks into the year. What certainly occurred to me, I think, is that there was a sort of weak start in terms of financing activity at the beginning of this year, and that was really kind of true across the bank. What we've seen, obviously, with this volatility is a pickup in terms of some of the sort of trading lines, the stronger performance by GTS and obviously, a stronger performance by equity derivatives, which is exactly what you expect in the circumstances. So it has picked up. But certainly, I think we're always to January starting very strongly, and that was not the case this year, and I think we did want to make that clear.

    我認為您的第二個問題實際上是關於 1 月初的那種。看,我認為我們仍然在一年中的 4 或 5 週內。我認為,我當然想到的是,今年年初融資活動的開局有些疲軟,這在整個銀行都是如此。顯然,我們已經看到,這種波動性是某些交易線的回升,GTS 的表現更強勁,顯然,股票衍生品的表現更強勁,這正是您在這種情況下所期望的。所以它已經回升了。但可以肯定的是,我認為我們總是在 1 月份開始非常強勢,而今年的情況並非如此,我認為我們確實想明確這一點。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • And the next question comes from the line of Adam Terelak from Mediobanca.

    下一個問題來自 Mediobanca 的 Adam Terelak。

  • Adam Terelak - Banks Analyst

    Adam Terelak - Banks Analyst

  • I have one on capital and one on cost inflation. On capital, I mean, you finished the year at 14.4%. You're 2/3 of the way is deleveraging the IP, but you've got strong growth plans opposite that. I'm just wondering how quickly you can be deploying capital back into Wealth? You've clearly finished the year CHF 5 billion lower on RWA since deleveraging. You've got some regulatory inflation coming. So I was just wondering how quick kind of the CHF 3 billion back into the Private Bank can come through?

    我有一個關於資本的,一個關於成本通脹的。在資本方面,我的意思是,你今年以 14.4% 的成績結束。你有 2/3 的方式是去槓桿化 IP,但你有與之相反的強勁增長計劃。我只是想知道您可以多快將資金重新部署到財富中?自去槓桿以來,您的風險加權資產明顯減少了 50 億瑞士法郎。你有一些監管通貨膨脹即將到來。所以我只是想知道將 30 億瑞士法郎返還給私人銀行的速度有多快?

  • And then secondly, on the cost walk into next year, the CHF 700 million investment, is that pure investment? And how much of that is kind of rollover of run rates of investments year-to-date? And is there any kind of cost inflation underlying that, that we should think about also?

    其次,在進入明年的成本上,7億瑞士法郎的投資,是純粹的投資嗎?其中有多少是年初至今投資運行率的滾動?是否存在任何類型的成本膨脹,我們也應該考慮?

  • David R. Mathers - CFO & Member of the Executive Board

    David R. Mathers - CFO & Member of the Executive Board

  • Perhaps to start on the cost point first. I think what we're referring to there is additional investments that we're actually making across the bank. I mean clearly, if we're talking about our total investment spend, we're obviously talking more around CHF 3 billion in terms of IT, for example, each year. So that's the additional investments we expect to coming through the expense line. Because as you know, certain investments are capitalized and then amortized. So that's the guidance, as you might say, to how much the cost run rate we'll incur as a consequence. I mean, and we are very focused on driving cost efficiency across our existing infrastructure and therefore, releasing reserves and resources for that investment program. So there's very much a bifurcation how we think about costs between these 2 components and these 2 elements. But it's obviously, we didn't -- we obviously invest more than CHF 700 million every year, so you should see that as the margin or incremental investment spend. And that does include expenditure on risk and control initiatives as well, just to be clear.

    也許首先從成本點開始。我認為我們所指的是我們實際上在整個銀行進行的額外投資。我的意思很清楚,如果我們談論的是我們的總投資支出,我們顯然是在談論更多的 IT 方面,例如,每年大約 30 億瑞士法郎。這就是我們期望通過支出線獲得的額外投資。因為如您所知,某些投資被資本化,然後攤銷。正如您可能會說的,這就是我們將因此產生的成本運行率的指導。我的意思是,我們非常專注於提高現有基礎設施的成本效率,因此為該投資計劃釋放儲備和資源。因此,我們對這兩個組件和這兩個元素之間的成本的看法存在很大分歧。但很明顯,我們沒有——我們顯然每年投資超過 7 億瑞士法郎,所以你應該將其視為利潤或增量投資支出。這確實包括風險和控制計劃的支出,只是為了清楚起見。

  • I think in terms of the capital point, I think, clearly, from a group point of view, I mean, I'd just repeat what we said back on the 4th of November, I think 2021 was a challenging and difficult year for us. And clearly, for our shareholders and for our clients, too. And I think we feel it is only appropriate to operate at a ratio above 14% and around 4.5% on leverage ratio because I think we have to be seen as unquestioned in terms of our capital position, and that's very much our capital strategy.

    我認為就資本而言,我認為,顯然,從團隊的角度來看,我的意思是,我只是重複我們在 11 月 4 日所說的話,我認為 2021 年對我們來說是充滿挑戰和艱難的一年.顯然,對於我們的股東和我們的客戶也是如此。而且我認為我們認為僅以高於 14% 的比率和 4.5% 左右的槓桿率運營是合適的,因為我認為我們的資本狀況必須被視為毫無疑問,這在很大程度上是我們的資本戰略。

  • Quite clearly, we've outlined the plan to actually reinvest. So we're obviously reducing capital investment bank by CHF 3 billion, of which CHF 2 billion has already been accomplished, obviously largely through the exit at the majority of prime. That does release reserves for the Wealth Management businesses. But I think we were very clear back on the 4th of November that we would expect that to be delivered in a measured and balanced way compatible with our risk appetite and risk goals. So it's not all going to come out and we're going to go back in again. That would not be. But clearly, we do have capacity to support that Wealth Management growth provided it meets our risk criteria.

    很清楚,我們已經概述了實際再投資的計劃。因此,我們顯然將資本投資銀行減少了 30 億瑞士法郎,其中 20 億瑞士法郎已經完成,顯然主要是通過在大多數黃金時段退出。這確實釋放了財富管理業務的儲備金。但我認為我們在 11 月 4 日就非常清楚,我們希望以符合我們的風險偏好和風險目標的衡量和平衡的方式交付。所以它不會全部出來,我們會再次回來。那不會。但顯然,只要符合我們的風險標準,我們確實有能力支持財富管理的增長。

  • Adam Terelak - Banks Analyst

    Adam Terelak - Banks Analyst

  • And underlying cost inflation in the '22 cost then?

    那麼,22 年成本中的潛在成本膨脹呢?

  • David R. Mathers - CFO & Member of the Executive Board

    David R. Mathers - CFO & Member of the Executive Board

  • Yes, I mean, yes, and so forth, we've got 6.6, I think, of our expected methodology just under half is off risk. So that will absorb some capital, and that's obviously primarily at the group level.

    是的,我的意思是,是的,依此類推,我認為,我們的預期方法中有 6.6 分是無風險的。所以這將吸收一些資本,這顯然主要是在集團層面。

  • Our cost inflation, we're watching it closely. I wouldn't -- I think we're obviously conscious of what's going on out there in terms of the movement in inflation. I think it's reflected properly in our cost guidance, I think is the best way of summing that. I think there's plenty of things we can do. I think the Chain IQ deal is a very good deal and it's -- let's be clear, it's something we should have done before. So there is potential. And I think there are other things we can do as well.

    我們的成本膨脹,我們正在密切關注。我不會——我認為我們顯然已經意識到通貨膨脹運動方面正在發生的事情。我認為這在我們的成本指導中得到了適當的反映,我認為這是總結這一點的最佳方式。我認為我們可以做很多事情。我認為 Chain IQ 的交易是一筆非常好的交易,而且是——讓我們明確一點,這是我們以前應該做的事情。所以有潛力。我認為我們還可以做其他事情。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • And the next question comes from the line of Anke Reingen from Royal Bank of Canada.

    下一個問題來自加拿大皇家銀行的 Anke Reingen。

  • Anke Reingen - European Banks Analyst

    Anke Reingen - European Banks Analyst

  • The first is coming back to the Investment Bank and what you described a more normalization of the environment. And I guess given the change in the business, it's somewhat harder to see what that could be. In that context, would you think Q4 is like a reasonable base considering that there's more prime brokerage business going out according to plan?

    第一個是回到投資銀行,你所描述的環境更加正常化。而且我想鑑於業務的變化,很難看出會發生什麼。在這種情況下,考慮到更多的大宗經紀業務按計劃推出,您認為第四季度是一個合理的基礎嗎?

  • And then on the fee waiver, thank you very much for giving us the financial impact. Is it sort of like now implemented across the clients and assets you're planning to? Or should we expect a further step up in the next quarter?

    然後關於費用減免,非常感謝您給我們帶來的財務影響。是否有點像現在在您計劃的客戶和資產中實施?還是我們應該期待在下一季度進一步提高?

  • Thomas P. Gottstein - Member of the Executive Board & CEO

    Thomas P. Gottstein - Member of the Executive Board & CEO

  • Maybe I'll kick off with the first question, and then David will do the second question. I mean 2021 saw clearly a very elevated Investment Banking activities in -- across the board, frankly. But in particular, in areas such as equity capital markets, IPOs, SPACs but also in other areas like SP, credit and LevFin. Some of this will probably more normalize now in 2022 on the other side. So other areas like FX, where we have clearly more volatility, which is a good thing, I guess, for our business. And the same is true for some other GTS businesses we have. And equity derivatives, we think, will continue to be a source of opportunity in these volatile markets. So that's an area where we had already very strong results in '21, and we continue to see a good opportunity there. And then there are certain macro businesses that will probably also benefit from more volatile markets around interest rate hikes. So -- but clearly, compared to '21, overall Investment Banking revenues to the Street will normalize more to -- toward 2020 and '19 levels.

    也許我會從第一個問題開始,然後大衛會做第二個問題。我的意思是,坦率地說,2021 年的投資銀行業務活動明顯提升。但特別是在股權資本市場、IPO、SPAC 等領域,以及 SP、信貸和 LevFin 等其他領域。另一方面,其中一些現在可能會在 2022 年更加正常化。所以像外匯這樣的其他領域,我們顯然有更大的波動性,我想這對我們的業務來說是一件好事。我們擁有的其他一些 GTS 業務也是如此。我們認為,股票衍生品將繼續成為這些動盪市場中的機會來源。所以這是我們在 21 年已經取得了非常強勁的成績的領域,我們繼續在那裡看到一個很好的機會。此外,某些宏觀業務也可能會受益於加息帶來的更加動蕩的市場。因此——但很明顯,與 21 年相比,華爾街的整體投資銀行收入將更加正常化——接近 2020 年和 19 年的水平。

  • David R. Mathers - CFO & Member of the Executive Board

    David R. Mathers - CFO & Member of the Executive Board

  • I think on the fee waiver program, Anke, I think, firstly, I think interest in this has been high and I think take-up amongst the clients has been high as well. As we said, the -- we saw an adverse impact on revenues of about CHF 28 million in the fourth quarter, the majority of which was in respect of IWM.

    我認為關於費用減免計劃,Anke,我認為,首先,我認為對此的興趣很高,而且我認為客戶的參與度也很高。正如我們所說,我們看到第四季度對收入的不利影響約為 2800 萬瑞士法郎,其中大部分與 IWM 有關。

  • Just to be helpful, I don't think you should take CHF 28 million and multiply it by 4 for '22, that would not be correct. I would expect the number probably somewhere between, say, CHF 50 million and CHF 100 million, maybe let's pick CHF 75 million at that, difficult to be exact. And that's mainly because, of course, as clients' losses or potential losses in respect of the SCF fund are actually absorbed, obviously, the program becomes irrelevant at that point.

    只是為了提供幫助,我認為您不應該將 2800 萬瑞士法郎乘以 4 來計算 22 年,這是不正確的。我預計這個數字可能介於 5000 萬瑞士法郎和 1 億瑞士法郎之間,也許讓我們選擇 7500 萬瑞士法郎,這很難準確。當然,這主要是因為,由於 SCF 基金的客戶損失或潛在損失實際上已被吸收,顯然,該計劃在那時變得無關緊要。

  • And that's clearly very good because I think it is good to see the take-up. It does, obviously, I think, demonstrate our support for clients, and this is very important in respect to this matter. But clearly, essentially, it's also resolving this issue, which I think is actually important in terms of that. So I think -- and then clearly, one would expect the number to be less in '23 and '24, I think that hopefully helps.

    這顯然非常好,因為我認為很高興看到接受。很明顯,我認為,這確實表明了我們對客戶的支持,這在這件事上非常重要。但顯然,從本質上講,它也在解決這個問題,我認為這實際上很重要。所以我認為——然後很明顯,人們預計 23 年和 24 年的數字會更少,我認為這希望會有所幫助。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • And the next question comes from the line of Piers Brown from HSBC.

    下一個問題來自匯豐銀行的 Piers Brown。

  • Piers Brown - Banks Analyst

    Piers Brown - Banks Analyst

  • I've just got a couple of -- that are actually just detailed number of questions. But first of all, on Wealth Management net loans, you gave a number on Slide 9 of CHF 203 billion at the end of Q4. Can you -- have you got the number for the end of Q3 because there was a figure of CHF 184 million given that the 9-month stage in the November Investor Day pack, which just seems a very large quarter-on-quarter increase. So maybe that's not like-for-like. So if you could just give us the corresponding Q3 number that relates to that CHF 203 billion that you've shown for the fourth quarter?

    我有幾個——實際上只是詳細的問題數量。但首先,關於財富管理淨貸款,您在幻燈片 9 上給出了第四季度末 2030 億瑞士法郎的數字。您能否獲得第三季度末的數字,因為考慮到 11 月投資者日包中的 9 個月階段,數字為 1.84 億瑞士法郎,這似乎是一個非常大的季度環比增長。所以也許這不是同類。因此,如果您能給我們提供與您在第四季度展示的 2030 億瑞士法郎相關的相應第三季度數字?

  • And the second question is just on the distribution guidance for 2022 that you gave back in November of 25%. Forgive me if I'm mistaken, I can't see any reference for that in the slide pack today, but is that still the intention in terms of the level at which you accrue the dividend through this year?

    第二個問題是關於 2022 年您在 11 月提供的 25% 的分配指導。如果我弄錯了,請原諒我,我今天在幻燈片包中看不到任何參考,但就您今年累積股息的水平而言,這仍然是意圖嗎?

  • David R. Mathers - CFO & Member of the Executive Board

    David R. Mathers - CFO & Member of the Executive Board

  • I think on the first point, I think we'll revert to you and indeed, if everybody else wants a number, we're more than happy to give that to you afterwards, but we need to do a detailed reconciliation to that CHF 203 billion, but we'll get back to you and give you those numbers later today, basically.

    我認為在第一點上,我認為我們會回复你,事實上,如果其他人都想要一個號碼,我們非常樂意之後給你,但我們需要對 CHF 203 進行詳細的核對十億,但我們會在今天晚些時候回复你並給你這些數字,基本上。

  • In terms of distribution, yes, we're not changing what we said on the 4th of November. As you know, the Board of Directors recommends to shareholders a CHF 0.10 dividend in respect to 2021, which is unchanged from the lowered level in respect to 2020. And we certainly confirm our guidance of 25% of net income for 2022. So no change from what we've said previously.

    在分發方面,是的,我們不會改變我們在 11 月 4 日所說的話。如您所知,董事會建議股東在 2021 年派發 0.10 瑞士法郎的股息,這與 2020 年的降低水平相比沒有變化。我們肯定會確認我們對 2022 年淨收入的 25% 的指導。所以沒有變化從我們之前所說的。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Thank you. Kinner, please continue.

    謝謝你。金納,請繼續。

  • Kinner R. Lakhani - Head of IR and Head of Group Strategy & Development

    Kinner R. Lakhani - Head of IR and Head of Group Strategy & Development

  • Great. So thank you, everyone, for your time and your good questions. Do feel free to follow up with the IR team if you have any other questions, and have a great day. Thank you.

    偉大的。所以,謝謝大家,感謝你們的時間和好問題。如果您有任何其他問題,請隨時與 IR 團隊聯繫,祝您度過愉快的一天。謝謝你。