康菲 (COP) 2026 Q1 法說會逐字稿

Welcome to the first-quarter 2026 ConocoPhillips earnings conference call. My name is Liz, and I will be your operator for today's call. (Operator Instructions)

歡迎參加康菲石油（ConocoPhillips）2026 年第一季財報電話會議。我是 Liz，將擔任今天會議的接線員。（接線員指示）

I will now turn the call over to Guy Baber, Vice President, Investor Relations. Sir, you may begin.

現在我將把電話交給投資人關係副總裁 Guy Baber。先生，您可以開始。

Thank you, Liz, and welcome, everyone, to our first quarter 2026 earnings conference call. On the call today are several members of the ConocoPhillips leadership team, including Ryan Lance, Chairman and CEO; Andy O'Brien, Chief Financial Officer and Executive Vice President of Strategy and Commercial; Nick Olds, Executive Vice President of Lower 48 and Global HSE; and Kirk Johnson, Executive Vice President of Global Operations and Technical Functions.

謝謝你，Liz，也歡迎各位參加我們 2026 年第一季財報電話會議。今天與會的有康菲石油領導團隊的多位成員，包括董事長兼執行長 Ryan Lance；財務長暨策略與商務執行副總裁 Andy O'Brien；美國本土 48 州（Lower 48）與全球 HSE（健康、安全與環境）執行副總裁 Nick Olds；以及全球營運與技術職能執行副總裁 Kirk Johnson。

Ryan and Andy will kick off the call with opening remarks after which the team will be available for your questions. For the Q&A, we will be taking one question per caller. A few quick reminders.

Ryan 與 Andy 將以開場致詞揭開序幕，之後團隊將回答各位的提問。在問答環節中，我們將採取每位來電者一個問題。先快速提醒幾點。

First, along with today's release, we published supplemental financial materials and a slide presentation, which you can find on the Investor Relations website. Second, during this call, we will be making forward-looking statements based on current expectations. Actual results may differ due to factors noted in today's release and in our periodic SEC filings.

第一，配合今天的新聞稿，我們已發布補充財務資料與簡報投影片，您可在投資人關係網站上找到。第二，在本次電話會議中，我們將基於目前的預期發表前瞻性陳述。實際結果可能因今日新聞稿及我們定期向美國證券交易委員會（SEC）申報文件中所述因素而有所不同。

We will make reference to some non-GAAP financial measures today, Reconciliations to the nearest corresponding GAAP measure can be found in today's release and on our website.

今天我們將提及部分非 GAAP 財務衡量指標；與最接近之對應 GAAP 指標的調節表可在今日新聞稿及我們網站上查閱。

With that, I'll turn the call over to Ryan.

接下來，我把電話交給 Ryan。

Thanks, Guy, and thank you to everyone for joining our first-quarter 2026 earnings conference call. As we begin, I want to start by acknowledging the ongoing conflict in the Middle East. Our thoughts are, first and foremost, with our employees, our partners, and the broader communities directly affected by these events.

謝謝你，Guy，也感謝各位參加我們 2026 年第一季財報電話會議。在開始之前，我想先提及中東持續的衝突。我們的心意首先與我們的員工、合作夥伴，以及直接受到這些事件影響的更廣泛社區同在。

The supply curtailment and ensuing macro volatility have not only impacted energy markets but are also being felt across the global economy. Periods of volatility in our industry are inevitable, but this conflict reinforces the importance of both U.S. and global energy security. We certainly hope for a swift and diplomatic solution that resolves the conflict, protects U.S. interests, opens commerce and provide stability in the region.

供應受限以及隨之而來的總體波動，不僅影響能源市場，也正擴散至全球經濟。本產業的波動期無可避免，但這場衝突再次凸顯美國與全球能源安全的重要性。我們當然希望能以迅速且外交方式的解決方案終結衝突、保障美國利益、恢復商業往來並為該地區帶來穩定。

Now turning to the first-quarter results. We delivered another strong quarter of strong financial and operational performance. We generated $2.4 billion of free cash flow and returned $2 billion of capital to our shareholders. In the Lower 48, where we have the deepest and highest quality inventory of any operator, we continue to improve our peer-leading capital efficiency, meaningfully increasing the number of three-mile plus laterals in our program.

接著談第一季成果。我們再度交出強勁的一季財務與營運表現。我們創造了 24 億美元自由現金流，並向股東返還 20 億美元資本。在美國本土 48 州（Lower 48），我們擁有所有營運商中最深且品質最高的庫存資源，並持續提升同業領先的資本效率，在我們的計畫中大幅增加三英里以上水平段（laterals）的數量。

In Alaska, we're winding down another successful winter construction season, with the Willow project now 50% complete. Our teams have completed the project's gravel scope, an important milestone, and mobilization for summer work is underway. We also recently completed our four-well exploration program in Alaska, the first in a multiyear program to leverage existing infrastructure to unlock additional low cost of supply resource consistent with our long-term track record.

在阿拉斯加，我們正逐步結束另一個成功的冬季施工季，Willow 專案目前已完成 50%。我們的團隊已完成該專案的碎石工程範圍，這是一項重要里程碑，且夏季作業的動員正在進行中。我們也剛完成阿拉斯加四口井的探勘計畫，這是多年期計畫中的第一階段，旨在利用既有基礎設施，釋放更多低供應成本資源，並延續我們長期的績效紀錄。

It's still early days but we are excited about the opportunity and the results and more low cost of supply resources coming to the greater Willow area. As the broader industry increasingly recognizes Alaska's unique resource potential, we believe our long-standing position, legacy infrastructure investments, and technical expertise provide us with a meaningful competitive advantage.

目前仍在早期階段，但我們對於在更大 Willow 區域帶來更多低供應成本資源的機會與成果感到振奮。隨著整體產業日益認可阿拉斯加獨特的資源潛力，我們相信我們長期建立的布局、既有基礎設施投資與技術專長，將為我們帶來顯著的競爭優勢。

Turning to LNG. We recently executed a third-party tolling agreement in Equatorial Guinea, extending the life of the LNG facility well into the next decade. This is a strategically located asset in a gas-rich part of the world surrounded by discovered resource, which supports its long-term potential. Additionally, the Port Arthur LNG project continues to progress very well, with first LNG expected next year.

接著談 LNG。我們近期在赤道幾內亞簽署第三方收費式（tolling）協議，將 LNG 設施的使用年限延長至下一個十年之後。這是一項位於全球天然氣資源豐富區域、且周邊已有探明資源的策略性資產，支撐其長期潛力。此外，Port Arthur LNG 專案持續進展順利，預計明年將迎來首批 LNG。

Turning to the outlook. While ongoing events have significantly tightened crude oil and LNG markets, the macro environment remains volatile and pretty impossible to predict. Amidst such uncertainty, it's critical our priorities remain steadfast. They are clear, consistent, and they are durable. They have served us well for the last decade and will continue to guide us into the future.

接著談展望。雖然持續事件已顯著收緊原油與 LNG 市場，但總體環境仍然波動，且幾乎無法預測。在如此不確定之下，關鍵在於我們的優先事項必須保持堅定不移。這些優先事項清楚、一致且具持久性。它們在過去十年一直為我們帶來良好成果，未來也將持續引導我們前行。

We will continue delivering base dividend growth competitive with the top quartile of the S&P 500. We will maintain and protect our investment-grade balance sheet. Recall last year, we were one of the only companies that delivered on our shareholder return objectives and strengthened the balance sheet. We'll continue returning significant CFO to shareholders right off the top.

我們將持續提供可與標普 500 指數前四分位數公司相競爭的基本股利成長。我們將維持並守護投資級資產負債表。回顧去年，我們是少數能夠達成股東報酬目標並同時強化資產負債表的公司之一。我們將持續在最優先的層級把相當可觀的 CFO（營運現金流）返還給股東。

We've averaged about 45% over the past decade through the cycles, and after meeting all these priorities, we'll evaluate disciplined reinvestment for growth. In terms of how these priorities are translating to our 2026 plan, our expected CFO generation is up materially given our unhedged oil and LNG torque.

過去十年跨越景氣循環，我們平均約為 45%；在滿足上述所有優先事項後，我們將評估以紀律方式再投資以促進成長。就這些優先事項如何反映在我們 2026 年計畫而言，受惠於我們未避險的原油與 LNG 槓桿（torque），預期 CFO 產生能力將顯著提升。

Shareholders will directly share in this upside with our 45% of CFO return of capital objective. We have also added a modest amount of Permian activity over the second half of the year to maintain our operational efficiency into 2027. Long term, ConocoPhillips continues to offer a compelling value proposition that is differentiated in the market.

股東將透過我們「返還 45% CFO 作為資本回饋」的目標，直接分享這項上行空間。我們也在下半年小幅增加二疊紀（Permian）活動，以維持我們至 2027 年的營運效率。長期而言，康菲石油持續提供具吸引力且在市場上具差異化的價值主張。

We believe we have the highest quality asset base in our peer space. As we have said before, we are resource rich in a world that is looking increasingly resource scarce. This is a distinguishing competitive advantage. We have the deepest and most capital-efficient Lower 48 inventory in the sector. And outside the Lower 48, we have an abundance of diversified, low cost of supply legacy assets, and we are uniquely investing in our portfolio to drive peer-leading free cash flow growth. We're on track to deliver our previously announced $7 billion free cash flow inflection by 2029, driven by our cost reduction efforts, LNG projects, and Willow.

我們相信在同業中，我們擁有最高品質的資產基礎。如同我們先前所說，我們身處一個資源日益稀缺的世界，而我們資源豐富。這是一項突出的競爭優勢。我們在美國本土 48 州（Lower 48）擁有本產業最深且最具資本效率的庫存資源。而在 Lower 48 之外，我們擁有大量多元化、低供應成本的既有資產，並以獨特方式投資於我們的投資組合，以推動同業領先的自由現金流成長。我們正按計畫在 2029 年前達成先前公布的 70 億美元自由現金流拐點（inflection），其動能來自我們的降本努力、LNG 專案以及 Willow。

So with that, let me turn the call over to Andy to cover our first-quarter performance and updated outlook in more detail.

接下來，我把電話交給 Andy，請他更詳細說明第一季表現與更新後的展望。

Thanks, Ryan. Starting with our first-quarter performance, we produced 2,309,000 barrels of oil equivalent per day. This includes the impacts of the Middle East conflict on Qatar volumes and higher royalty rates at Surmont from higher oil prices. These impacts were partially offset by strong performance across our Lower 48 and international portfolio.

謝謝你，Ryan。先從第一季表現談起，我們的產量為每日 2,309,000 桶油當量。其中包含中東衝突對卡達產量的影響，以及因油價上漲導致 Surmont 權利金率提高的影響。這些影響部分被我們在 Lower 48 與國際投資組合的強勁表現所抵銷。

In the Lower 48, we produced 1,453,000 barrels of oil equivalent per day, representing 4% year-over-year growth on an underlying basis. We generated $1.89 per share in adjusted earnings and $5.4 billion of CFO. Capital expenditures were $2.9 billion. We returned $2 billion to our shareholders during the first quarter, $1 billion in ordinary dividends, and $1 billion of share repurchases. We ended the quarter with cash and short-term investments of $6.7 billion as well as $1.2 billion in liquid, long-term investments.

在 Lower 48，我們的產量為每日 1,453,000 桶油當量，按基礎口徑計算年增 4%。我們的調整後每股盈餘為 1.89 美元，CFO（營運現金流）為 54 億美元。資本支出為 29 億美元。第一季我們向股東返還 20 億美元，其中 10 億美元為普通股利，另 10 億美元為庫藏股回購。季末我們持有現金與短期投資 67 億美元，另有 12 億美元具流動性的長期投資。

Turning to our outlook, we are updating our guidance to account for the impacts of recent macro events and the uncertainty surrounding the Middle East conflict. To be clear, this is not a call on when we think the conflict will resolve, we're simply trying to provide a clear and transparent framework for you to model and assess the underlying performance of the company.

談到我們的展望，我們正在更新我們的指引，以反映近期宏觀事件的影響，以及圍繞中東衝突的不確定性。需要說清楚的是，這並不是在判斷我們認為衝突何時會解決；我們只是試圖提供一個清晰且透明的框架，讓各位能夠建模並評估公司基本面的表現。

For production, the midpoint of our annual guidance is updated to 2,310,000 barrels of oil equivalent per day. This reflects a 20,000 barrel of oil equivalent per day annual impact due to Qatar being excluded from second-quarter production guidance and a 15,000 barrel of oil equivalent per day annual royalty rate adjustment at Surmont due to higher prices. We've made no other adjustments to our annual production guidance.

在產量方面，我們將全年指引的中位數更新為每日 2,310,000 桶油當量。這反映了兩項年度影響：由於卡達被排除在第二季產量指引之外，造成每日 20,000 桶油當量的年度影響；以及由於價格較高，Surmont 的權利金率調整帶來每日 15,000 桶油當量的年度影響。我們對全年產量指引未做其他調整。

The midpoint of our second-quarter production guidance is 2,200,000 barrels of oil equivalent per day, which reflects the full exclusion of Qatar production from guidance for the quarter, the Surmont royalty rate adjustment, and planned second-quarter maintenance.

我們第二季產量指引的中位數為每日 2,200,000 桶油當量，反映了本季指引中完全排除卡達產量、Surmont 權利金率調整，以及第二季計畫性維護。

Moving to operating costs. Full-year guidance of $10.2 billion is unchanged, reflecting a $400 million reduction from 2025 due to the benefits of our cost reduction and margin enhancement program. We made strong progress in the first quarter, and we remain confident in realizing the full $1 billion run rate by year-end.

接著談營運成本。全年指引維持在 102 億美元不變，反映相較 2025 年因我們的降本與利潤率提升計畫帶來 4 億美元的降低。我們在第一季取得了強勁進展，並且仍有信心在年底前實現每年 10 億美元的運行率（run rate）。

For capital spending, we're updating our guidance to a range of $12 billion to $12.5 billion versus our prior guidance of about $12 billion, representing a 2% increase at the midpoint. This increase is due to slightly more Permian activity over the second half of the year. We're adding a rig to keep pace with the completion efficiencies, and we expect higher levels of non-operated spend. These modest activity additions will maintain our operational continuity into 2027.

在資本支出方面，我們將指引更新為 120 億至 125 億美元的區間，相較先前約 120 億美元的指引，中位數增加 2%。這項增加是因為下半年二疊紀（Permian）活動略有增加。我們將新增一座鑽機以跟上完井效率的提升，並預期非作業（non-operated）支出水準更高。這些溫和的活動增加將維持我們到 2027 年的營運連續性。

Additionally, we're incorporating a guidance range to capture the uncertainty around the macro environment as well as the Middle East conflict, specifically as it pertains to the timing for NFE and NFS spending.

此外，我們也納入一個指引區間，以涵蓋宏觀環境以及中東衝突的不確定性，特別是其對 NFE 與 NFS 支出時點的影響。

To wrap up, we delivered strong first-quarter results. We executed well financially and operationally. We continue to advance our strategy, and amid a volatile macro environment, we remain committed to clear, consistent and durable priorities, that have served us well for the last decade.

總結來說，我們交出了強勁的第一季成果。我們在財務與營運面都執行得很到位。我們持續推進策略；在波動的宏觀環境下，我們仍致力於清晰、一致且可持續的優先事項，而這些在過去十年一直讓我們受益。

As Ryan mentioned, our expected CFO is up materially from the beginning of the year. We remain unhedged on oil and LNG to ensure we capture the price upside with 40% of our crude production linked to premium markets such as ANS and dated Brent. And shareholders are directly participating in this upside as we remain committed to returning 45% of our CFO, consistent with our long-term track record.

如 Ryan 所提到的，我們預期的 CFO（營運現金流）較年初顯著上升。我們在原油與 LNG 方面仍維持未避險（unhedged），以確保能掌握價格上行空間；我們 40% 的原油產量與 ANS 及即期布蘭特（dated Brent）等溢價市場連動。而股東也能直接參與這項上行空間，因為我們仍承諾回饋 CFO 的 45%，與我們長期的歷史紀錄一致。

Looking ahead, we remain focused on executing our plan and enhancing our differentiated investment thesis, unmatched portfolio quality, including leading Lower 48 inventory depth, attractive long-cycle investment, strong return on and of capital, and driving sector-leading free cash flow growth through the end of the decade.

展望未來，我們仍專注於執行計畫並強化我們差異化的投資論點：無可匹敵的資產組合品質（包括美國本土 48 州領先的庫存深度）、具吸引力的長週期投資、強勁的資本報酬與資本回收，以及在本十年末之前推動同業領先的自由現金流成長。

That concludes our prepared remarks. I'll now turn it over to the operator to start the Q&A.

以上是我們準備好的發言。接下來我把時間交給接線員，開始問答環節。

(Operator Instructions)

（接線員指示）

Scott Hanold, RBC Capital Markets.

Scott Hanold，RBC 資本市場。

A lot happening, obviously, out on the macro front. And I know you all do a lot of work on the oil macro in addition to obviously having feelers out there. Can you give us a sense of your view of what's happened in the market if you've got any view of physical versus the financial kind of position of oil?

宏觀面顯然發生了很多事情。我知道各位除了透過各種管道掌握資訊之外，也在石油宏觀方面做了大量研究。如果你們對市場發生的情況有任何看法，能否談談你們對實體市場相對於金融面（部位）在石油上的觀察？

And how you expect like operators to act and react? It sounds like you guys are going to maintain operational efficiency, but it would be good to see if you've got a view on what you're seeing and hearing from others.

以及你們預期像營運商會如何行動與反應？聽起來你們會維持營運效率，但如果你們能分享一下你們從其他人那裡看到與聽到的情況，會很有幫助。

Yes. Thanks, Scott. Maybe I'll let Andy talk a little bit about some of the numbers that we see out there and then maybe I can come back and address some of your broader set questions after that.

是的。謝謝你，Scott。也許我先請 Andy 談談我們看到的一些數據，之後我再回來回應你更廣泛的一些問題。

Thanks, Ryan. Scott. Yes, I'll start with -- I think you said this for me. There's certainly a lot of moving pieces out there right now. And I'll summarize sort of our view of the world. I'm not sure it's too different to others, but it's -- I think it's good to summarize it.

謝謝，Ryan。Scott。是的，我先從——我想你是把這題留給我。目前外部確實有很多變動因素。我來概括一下我們對整體局勢的看法。我不確定這是否與其他人的看法有太大不同，但我認為做個總結是有幫助的。

For about two months now, we've had about 10 million barrels a day of production offline that even factors in the redirected volumes in countries like Saudi Arabia. We have seen inventory and SPR releases that have partially backfilled some of that lost supply. And the ongoing SPR releases that have been announced, they'll certainly help through the May, July timeframe.

大約兩個月以來，我們有約每日 1,000 萬桶的產量處於停擺狀態，即便已把沙烏地阿拉伯等國家改道的供應量納入考量也是如此。我們看到庫存與戰略石油儲備（SPR）的釋出，在一定程度上回補了部分流失的供給。而已宣布的持續 SPR 釋出，確實將有助於支撐到 5 月至 7 月這段期間。

But I do think it's really important for people to understand that the brunt of the supply shortfall is currently being absorbed by refinery run cuts and demand curtailments. Now if you include the Persian Gulf refineries that have been damaged, the total global refinery run cuts right now probably amount to around 8 million barrels a day.

但我認為非常重要的是，大家要理解：目前供給缺口的主要承擔者，是煉油廠降低開工率以及需求被抑制。如果把波斯灣受損的煉油廠也算進去，目前全球煉油開工下調的總量可能約為每日 800 萬桶。

Now as we look forward from here, we think the biggest challenge we're about to face is that the markets sort of had a bit of a grace period initially when the tankers that left the Persian Gulf in late February were still on the water. Now all of those have reached their destination. The impacts of the lost supply is going to start to become more apparent.

接著往前看，我們認為接下來最大的挑戰是：市場在一開始其實有一段「緩衝期」，因為 2 月下旬離開波斯灣的油輪仍在海上航行。現在那些油輪都已抵達目的地。供給流失的影響將開始變得更為明顯。

We could possibly see from here now inventory draws really start to accelerate. You've already seen that governments in over a dozen countries are implementing policies to ration or otherwise reduce demand in advance of physical shortages.

從現在開始，我們可能會看到庫存去化（inventory draws）開始明顯加速。你也已經看到十多個國家的政府正在推行政策，在實體短缺發生之前就先配給或以其他方式降低需求。

And so given those factors I've just described, we are downgrading our view of global oil demand to be sort of flat year-over-year with probably a bit more risk to the downside if the conflict goes on. And probably one final point I'd make before sort of passing it off to Ryan is, despite efforts that are ongoing to manage demand, we are going to start to see some import dependent countries potentially start to face critical shortages as we get into the June, July time frame.

因此，基於我剛才描述的這些因素，我們下調對全球石油需求的看法，預期年增率大致持平；如果衝突持續，可能還會有更多下行風險。在把話交回給 Ryan 之前，我最後想補充一點：儘管目前仍在努力管理需求，但隨著進入 6 月、7 月，一些依賴進口的國家可能會開始面臨嚴重短缺。

So I'll probably stop there. I'll let Ryan sort of add sort of a bit more to that.

我大概就先說到這裡。我讓 Ryan 再補充一些。

Yes, maybe Scott, how are people acting. I think people are watching pretty closely to see what happens. Maybe a little bit of short-cycle investments and I'm sure that will come up in our call with the capital. We're just trying to maintain the efficiency gains that we've got in the Lower 48, and we won't be drilled out of some of our OBO activity. But we're trying to look longer term as well, as Andy said, assess the supply and the demand fundamentals.

是的，Scott，關於大家如何行動。我想大家都在密切觀察接下來會發生什麼。可能會有一些短週期投資，我相信這也會在我們談資本的電話會議中被提到。我們只是想維持我們在美國本土 48 州已取得的效率提升，而且我們不會因為一些 OBO 活動就被迫加速鑽探。但我們也在嘗試以更長期的角度來看，正如 Andy 所說，評估供給與需求的基本面。

I think at a minimum, we think the floor probably is going to have to raise up a little bit, at least relative to where we were before the conflict started. Recall, we had a mid-cycle WTI price of about $65, and that's -- we believe that's probably going to come up with the floor.

我認為至少，我們覺得價格底部可能必須上移一些，至少相對於衝突開始之前的水準。回想一下，我們當時的中週期 WTI 價格約為 65 美元，而我們相信這個底部大概會往上調。

But we're trying to assess right now given the demand dynamics and the supply dynamics, what long-term effect that's going to have on what we would call a mid-cycle equilibrium price and for how long that might persist. And recall, we were pretty constructive over the last few years before this got started with some uncertainty around how the physical and paper markets were acting a little bit, and this has just accelerated a lot of that. But certainly think the floor probably has to come up to account for the changes that have occurred over the last couple of months.

但我們現在正嘗試在需求動態與供給動態的背景下評估，這將對我們所稱的「中周期均衡價格」產生什麼長期影響，以及這種影響可能會持續多久。另外回想一下，在這一切開始之前的過去幾年，我們其實相當偏正面看待，只是對於實體與紙貨市場的運作方式存在一些不確定性，而這次事件只是把其中很多現象大幅加速了。但我們確實認為，為了反映過去幾個月發生的變化，價格底部可能必須上移。

Neil Mehta, Goldman Sachs.

Neil Mehta，高盛。

Yes. Ryan, Andy, great comments there. And definitely, our thoughts are with your people in the region. I want to pivot over to Alaska, and we went through winter construction season here. And so I’d love the mark-to-market on how those plans progressed, where do you stand in terms of Willow construction? And what are the big milestones as we continue to derisk this project and get to that free cash flow inflection?

是的。Ryan、Andy，你們的評論很精彩。而且我們也掛念著你們在當地的同仁。我想把話題轉到阿拉斯加，我們剛經歷了這裡的冬季施工季。所以我很想了解一下這些計畫推進到什麼程度、目前 Willow 的施工進展如何？以及在我們持續降低這個專案風險、走向自由現金流拐點的過程中，接下來有哪些重要里程碑？

Yes, Neil, thanks for the question. We've had a really strong showing here just in the last six months in Willow. So I'll probably address maybe a couple of things. I'll touch on Willow, directly your question, and then very related to that, given it is the winter season, we've also had a really strong showing in exploration as well. So I'll take you through a little bit of how we're seeing these projects progress.

是的，Neil，謝謝你的問題。在 Willow 這邊，過去六個月我們的表現非常強勁。所以我可能會談幾個面向。我會先直接回應你對 Willow 的問題，然後也會談一個與此高度相關的部分：因為現在是冬季，我們在勘探方面也有非常亮眼的成果。我會帶你快速看一下我們如何看待這些專案的推進情況。

Starting with Willow, as mentioned in the opening remarks, we are, in fact, at 50% complete on the project. And that -- achieving that requires a collection of key milestones that our teams have been able to accomplish and get behind us here. And this winter season in Alaska, we accomplished the entirety of our planned work scope, which admittedly was a little bit of a challenge. We had quite a few weather days, not dissimilar from our very first winter season. And despite that, again, the teams were able to accomplish the full winter scope.

先從 Willow 談起，如同開場所提到的，我們確實已完成專案的 50%。而要達到這個進度，需要完成一系列關鍵里程碑，我們的團隊已經成功達成並把它們拋在身後。在阿拉斯加這個冬季施工季，我們完成了所有原先規劃的工作範圍，坦白說這有一定挑戰。我們遇到不少天候影響的停工日，和第一個冬季施工季的情況相當類似。即便如此，團隊仍然完成了整個冬季的工作範圍。

And by that, certainly probably most important to us as part of critical path was the civil work. And so we were able to get all of the bridges down and the entirety of the gravel scope. So think roads, pads, and then even the airstrip, and that sets us up then for our ability to execute the summer work and especially important with gravel, it allows you to dry and mature that gravel, create the compression necessary on that to continue the structural work that's upcoming, then obviously in the construction of future facilities and even pipelines.

其中，對我們而言、在關鍵路徑上最重要的，應該就是土木工程。因此我們完成了所有橋梁施工，以及全部的碎石工程範圍。也就是道路、作業平台（pads），甚至跑道；這讓我們得以在夏季執行後續工作。尤其碎石工程非常重要，因為它能讓碎石乾燥並熟化，形成所需的壓實度，以便推進接下來的結構工程，並用於未來設施甚至管線的建造。

And then as it relates to pipelines, important this year for us was the east-west scope. And that's important because it allows us to begin to make the connections back into the existing operations. And by that, I mean Western North Slope or Alpine with those connections just within the coming week, we'll be bringing fuel gas. And then we'll be firing up our power for Willow. And so again, we've just been really successful in accomplishing the scope here, we've laid out as we continue to commission the op center.

接著談到管線，今年對我們而言重要的是東西向的工程範圍。這很重要，因為它讓我們能開始把系統接回既有營運。我指的是西部北坡（Western North Slope）或 Alpine；在接下來一週內完成這些連接後，我們將導入燃料氣。然後我們會啟動 Willow 的電力系統。總之，我們在完成既定工作範圍方面非常成功，並且會持續推進營運中心的試運轉（commissioning）。

And then, of course, with engineering largely wrapped up and complete here in the Lower 48 on the Gulf Coast, our process modules achieved a similar milestone, which is also being 50%, just slightly better than 50% complete there in fabrication. That's important because certainly not this summer, but next summer, we have plans to sea lift those into Alaska, which becomes the next major milestone for us to get those processing modules up there.

此外，隨著工程設計在美國本土 48 州的墨西哥灣沿岸地區大致收尾並完成，我們的製程模組也達成了類似的里程碑，也就是在製造（fabrication）方面完成了 50%，甚至略高於 50%。這很重要，因為雖然不是今年夏天，但明年夏天我們計畫以海運把這些模組運到阿拉斯加，這將成為下一個主要里程碑，讓這些處理模組能到位。

And so again, all of this in aggregate, puts us in just a very strong position for this early oil expectation that we have for 2029, and all of that is on track. And that's obviously important. So it's underpinning this compelling value proposition that we have for the $7 billion free cash flow inflection.

因此，綜合來看，這些進展讓我們在 2029 年早期投油（early oil）的預期上處於非常有利的位置，而且一切都按計畫推進。這顯然非常重要。也因此支撐了我們所看到的、極具吸引力的價值主張：自由現金流將出現 70 億美元的拐點。

But then even thinking well beyond that is exploration. And again, also, as you heard from Ryan, we had a strong showing here too. We speak a lot to the four wells that we had planned this year, which were successful for us, but this is the largest winter season and exploration that we've had since 2020. And with that came the four wells, but we also shot seismic and then we also did quite a bit of gravel exploration and had really high success ratio there on finding gravel for future pads.

不過，甚至把視野放得更遠，還有勘探。同樣地，如同你從 Ryan 那裡聽到的，我們在這方面也有很強的表現。我們常提到今年規劃的四口井，對我們而言都很成功；但這其實是自 2020 年以來我們最大的一個冬季勘探季。除了四口井之外，我們也進行了地震測勘（seismic），並且做了相當多的碎石勘探，在為未來作業平台尋找碎石方面成功率非常高。

So when we look at that exploration program, again, as you heard from Ryan, I'm really pleased to report, and by that I mean we found hydrocarbons out there where we were prospecting and drilling. And so naturally, then our subsurface teams are poring over the results, seeking to ensure that we can well characterize what we found.

所以當我們回頭看這個勘探計畫時，如同你從 Ryan 那裡聽到的，我很高興可以回報：我們在原本鎖定與鑽探的區域確實發現了碳氫化合物。因此，我們的地質與地下團隊正在仔細分析結果，以確保能夠把我們的發現做出良好的地層與儲層特性描述。

And of course, commerciality comes with typically more than one season. And that's why we call these exploration and appraisal wells and seasons. It will take several, but certainly with what we found really looking forward to the opportunity to keep Willow full.

當然，商業可行性通常需要不只一個季節才能確認。這也是為什麼我們稱之為勘探與評估井，以及勘探與評估季。這會需要好幾個季節，但就我們目前的發現而言，我們非常期待有機會讓 Willow 持續滿載運轉。

Again, and I think that underpins our objective here, which is we're in this to identify new resource and pad development opportunities to do just that, which is keep this infrastructure full. And you've seen the track record from us in the past. And with the success that we've been realizing just in the last six months, again, just a really strong showing from our Alaska team.

再說一次，我認為這也支撐了我們在此的目標：我們投入其中，是為了辨識新的資源與作業平台開發機會，目的就是讓這套基礎設施保持滿載。你也看過我們過去的成績紀錄。而在過去六個月所取得的成果之下，再次證明我們阿拉斯加團隊的表現非常強勁。

Betty Jiang, Barclays.

Betty Jiang，巴克萊。

The -- a lot of eyes right now on the short-cycle response to higher oil prices and you guys being the first one out of the gate and sort of leaning into activity in the Permian, which clearly makes sense for you guys given the deep inventory.

目前很多人都在關注油價上升後的短週期供給反應，而你們是第一個起跑、並且某種程度上加大二疊紀（Permian）活動力度的公司；考量你們擁有深厚的庫存（inventory），這顯然對你們很合理。

But can we just get a bit more color on the decision process from Conoco's perspective to link into Permian activity now? And alluding to your mid-cycle views earlier, what price would it take to flex activity further? And what will be the sensitivity on production outcome in 2027?

但能否請你們再多分享一些 Conoco 從自身角度、決定現在把活動連結到二疊紀開發的決策過程？另外呼應你們先前提到的中周期觀點，油價需要到什麼水準才會讓你們進一步彈性調整、提高活動？以及對 2027 年產量結果的敏感度會是如何？

Betty, Andy here. Maybe I'll quickly start this and then Nick can talk a bit more specific about the details of what we're doing in the Permian. I did cover in the prepared remarks that what we've done here is effectively increased the midpoint of the CapEx by about $250 million. And I think it is important to sort of to describe why we're doing that.

Betty，我是 Andy。我先快速開個頭，接著 Nick 可以更具體談談我們在二疊紀做了哪些事情的細節。我在事先準備的發言中提到，我們這次的作法等同於把資本支出（CapEx）的中位數上調了大約 2.5 億美元。我認為說明我們為什麼這麼做很重要。

It is -- we keep having the operational efficiency that Nick will talk to. And it's important basically the way we think about steady state that we keep that going. So on the operated side, it really is just a continuation basically of our steady state, just given how efficient we're being.

原因在於——我們持續提升營運效率，Nick 會談到。而就我們對穩態（steady state）的思考而言，維持這種效率的延續性非常重要。因此在自營（operated）部分，基本上只是延續我們的穩態運作，因為我們的效率確實很高。

And then on the non-operated side, as I said in our prepared remarks, it's more in anticipation, and starting to see the early signs of this, of some of our non-operated partners starting to ballot us for more wells. So I'd say it's more sort of the $250 million is more around sort of operationally setting ourselves up and sort of being thoughtful about what we keep our steady state, and we react to partners versus a big sort of macro call on price.

至於非自營（non-operated）部分，如同我在準備稿中所說，更多是出於預期——而且我們也開始看到一些早期跡象——我們的一些非自營合作夥伴開始就更多井位向我們徵詢/提案（ballot）。所以我會說，這 2.5 億美元更多是為了在營運上讓我們做好準備、並審慎思考如何維持穩態，以及如何回應合作夥伴的需求，而不是基於油價所做的一個重大的總體判斷。

Maybe with that, I'll let Nick just give a bit of the specifics on what we're doing. We can come back. There is more to cover.

也許在這之後，我先請 Nick 簡單說明一下我們正在做的具體事項。我們之後可以再回來補充。還有更多內容要涵蓋。

Yes. Thanks, Andy. As Andy mentioned, that $250 million of additional activity is concentrated in the Delaware, and that's a combination of operated and non-operated. On the operated side, we continue to drive significant efficiencies both on the drilling and the completion operations.

是的。謝謝，Andy。如 Andy 提到的，那額外的 2.5 億美元活動主要集中在 Delaware，且同時包含自營與非自營。在自營方面，我們持續在鑽井與完井作業上推動顯著的效率提升。

On our completion efficiencies, that's slightly outpacing the drilling side. So we're adding another Permian rig versus prior plan to help us keep pace with our frac crews and maintain our level-loaded, steady-state operations approach that we've talked about for a number of years.

就我們的完井效率而言，提升速度略快於鑽井端。因此，為了協助我們跟上壓裂車隊的節奏，並維持我們多年來談到的均衡配置、穩態運作方式，我們將在既有計畫基礎上於二疊紀（Permian）再增加一座鑽機。

The key item and ultimately, what we don't want to take place is have any frac gaps due to the efficiency improvement that we're continuing to capture. If you recall, last year, as we exited 2025, we had a 15% improvement in D&C both operational efficiencies, and we continue to see those trends. But on the completion efficiencies, those are outpacing it.

關鍵項目是——最終我們不希望發生的是——因為我們持續取得的效率改善而出現任何壓裂空窗期（frac gaps）。如果你還記得，去年在我們結束 2025 年時，鑽完（D&C）兩端的作業效率合計提升了 15%，而我們仍持續看到這些趨勢。但在完井效率方面，提升速度更快。

Now if I pivot to the non-operated OBO side, we have started to see more well ballots from our partners, which will likely translate to a higher level of OBO spend over the second half of the year. And we're not going to elect out of low cost of supply, high-return OBO projects in this price environment.

現在如果我轉到非自營的 OBO 端，我們開始從合作夥伴那裡看到更多井位投票（well ballots），這很可能會在下半年轉化為更高水準的 OBO 支出。在目前的價格環境下，我們不會選擇退出那些供應成本低、報酬率高的 OBO 專案。

We've seen it in the past. They're competitive projects, they're short cycle with good returns. So that's the right choice from a returns perspective. Again, this activity additions are a modest capital add to our second half program, and we'll maintain our operational efficiency going into 2027.

我們過去也見過這種情況。這些是具競爭力的專案，週期短且回報良好。因此，從報酬角度來看，這是正確的選擇。再說一次，這些新增活動只是對我們下半年計畫的小幅資本增加，而我們將在邁向 2027 年時維持作業效率。

Yes. I would just add that these are no-brainers. These are duhs for us. We're not going to be drilled out of inventory by others, and we're going to keep our efficient machine running and so these are last half of the year, doesn't have a large impact on 2026. But sets us up for the continued growth that we're seeing in the Lower 48 in our portfolio.

是的。我只想補充，這些都是不需要多想的決定。對我們來說就是「理所當然」。我們不會讓別人把我們的庫存鑽光，我們會讓高效率的機器持續運轉；因此這些主要發生在今年下半年，對 2026 年的影響不大。但它讓我們能夠承接我們在本土 48 州（Lower 48）投資組合中看到的持續成長。

Year-on-year, you saw it in the first quarter, you'll see it year-on-year, and that will continue into 2027. In the meantime, we'll be assessing what we think mid-cycle price is going to go do and what the new equilibrium might look like and then what that follow-on means to the cash flows that we generate as a company, the returns that we're going to send back to our shareholder in what we reinvest for growth and development in the company. And that will be coming later this year just as part of our normal processes.

以年對年來看，你在第一季已經看到了，你也會持續以年對年看到，而這將延續到 2027 年。同時，我們會評估我們認為中週期價格（mid-cycle price）將如何走、以及新的均衡可能長什麼樣子，並進一步評估這對我們公司所產生的現金流、我們要回饋給股東的報酬，以及我們為公司成長與發展所再投資的金額意味著什麼。這些將在今年稍晚、作為我們正常流程的一部分對外說明。

Doug Leggate, Wolfe Research.

Doug Leggate，Wolfe Research。

So I guess, Ryan and Andy, I'm looking at slide 5 and those of us who have been around long enough, Ryan, remember what you went through in 2016 with the dividend. And now we're sitting here looking at low 70s, you're probably doing $10 billion of free cash flow according to your chart, and that's got 70% upside. My question is that you've stuck to the 45% cash flow payout. Your commitment is actually more than 30%. And clearly, there's a little bit of post-cyclical stuff going on with the share price.

我想，Ryan 和 Andy，我在看第 5 張投影片；Ryan，我們這些資歷夠久的人還記得你在 2016 年股利方面經歷過什麼。而現在我們坐在這裡，看著 70 出頭的油價，依照你們的圖表，你們可能有 100 億美元的自由現金流，而且那還有 70% 的上行空間。我的問題是，你們一直堅持 45% 的現金流配發。你們的承諾其實高於 30%。而且很明顯，股價上有一些後景氣循環（post-cyclical）的因素在發生。

These windfalls can be capitalized in different ways, especially through your dividend policy. So I just wonder if you can walk us through in these kind of situations, why not flex down in the payout? Why not think more about the longer-term dividend to breakeven the balance sheet. I'm just curious where your head is at on buying your shares at the top of the cycle? It might not be the top of the cycle, but it's certainly elevated for the time being.

這些意外之財可以用不同方式資本化，尤其是透過你們的股利政策。所以我想請你們談談，在這種情況下，為什麼不把配發比例往下彈性調整？為什麼不更多思考長期股利，讓資產負債表達到損益兩平（breakeven）？我只是好奇，你們怎麼看在景氣循環高點回購自家股票？也許這不是循環高點，但至少就目前而言確實偏高。

Yes. No, thanks, Doug. I mean, we like to think about share repurchase sort of in a dollar cost average. We tweak around the edges, which is why it was probably a little bit lower in the first quarter, but it was a good time to be buying in March and in April. So you'll see probably us buying more in the second quarter as we go forward.

是的。不，謝謝，Doug。我的意思是，我們傾向把股票回購視為一種「定期定額」（dollar cost average）的方式。我們會在邊際上做些微調，這也是為什麼第一季可能稍微低一些；但 3 月和 4 月其實是很適合買進的時點。所以你可能會看到我們在第二季隨著進展回購得更多。

But more fundamentally to your question, so our 30% floor is set in a mid-cycle price construct that we start with for the company. So we think about what mid-cycle prices are, what an equilibrium, look, we know we're never in a perfect kind of world, but we have to understand that from a supply and demand percentage perspective. So we can understand sort of what cash flows do we generate, what can we get back to the shareholder.

但更根本地回到你的問題，我們的 30% 底線是以公司一開始採用的中週期價格假設來設定的。因此我們會思考中週期價格是什麼、均衡狀態是什麼；你看，我們知道世界不可能完美，但我們必須從供需比例的角度去理解它。這樣我們才能理解我們會產生多少現金流、以及能回饋給股東多少。

And clearly, since we set that coming out of the downturn in 2014 and 2015, when we recast the value proposition for the company, it made sense, but we've had mid-cycle prior. So the actual price has been higher than our mid-cycle call for most of that time. So we've been able to afford and been able to provide more than 30% back to the shareholder.

而且很明顯，自從我們在 2014、2015 年景氣下行後設定這個框架、並重新塑造公司的價值主張以來，這樣做是合理的，但我們一直都有一個中週期的基準。因此在那段期間的大多數時間裡，實際價格都高於我們對中週期的判斷。所以我們有能力、也確實能夠回饋股東超過 30%。

Our history has been, I think, now coming up on a decade through the cycles even through the low point of the COVID pandemic in 2020 and the high point of 2022 when we were sending quite a bit back to the shareholder. So we think about it through cycle, we try to set a mid-cycle price. And we just are constantly trying to drive down the reinvestment rate in the company.

我想我們的歷史是——現在大概快要跨越十年——我們穿越景氣循環：包括 2020 年 COVID 疫情期間的低點，以及 2022 年的高點，當時我們回饋給股東相當多。所以我們用穿越週期的方式來思考，嘗試設定一個中週期價格。而我們也一直在努力降低公司內部的再投資率。

We're trying to drive growth for the least amount of capital as we can in the business, which is why Nick talks about what we're doing in the Lower 48 to drive the efficiencies that his team is doing, but Kirk is doing around the rest of the world and the opportunity we have in our legacy assets. So we've been able to afford something higher than our base, and that represents the 45% commitment that we've made for this year because we recognize that the strength and the power of the company is doing.

我們希望用盡可能少的資本推動業務成長；這也是為什麼 Nick 會談到我們在本土 48 州（Lower 48）所做的事——他的團隊正在推動效率提升——同時 Kirk 也在世界其他地區推動，以及我們在既有資產上的機會。因此我們有能力提供高於基礎水準的回饋，而這也體現在我們今年所做出的 45% 承諾，因為我們認知到公司所展現的強度與動能。

Now we don't want the dividend to get outsized as you referred to before, which may have been -- for those that remember pre-2015, 2016, there's not many of us around anymore, Doug, maybe you and I, and that's about it. But look, we want to make sure that we can sustain the dividend. We want to make sure we can grow the dividend at a competitive S&P 500 rate. We think that's important, being able to constantly, continually, annually grow it.

現在我們不希望股利變得過度膨脹，正如你先前提到的；對於還記得 2015、2016 年之前的人——現在已經沒剩多少了，Doug，可能就你跟我，差不多就這樣。但你看，我們要確保股利是可持續的。我們要確保能以具競爭力、接近標普 500 的速度來成長股利。我們認為這很重要，也就是能夠持續、連續、每年地提高股利。

It's something we think is competitive with the S&P 500 top quartile. And that's our commitment to go continue to do that. But at the same time, we want to make sure the dividend does get an outsized portion of our cash flows at a mid-cycle price, whatever mid-cycle price we call. So we're trying to manage both those things. And typically, the dividend today is certainly affordable, growable but doesn't represent the full 45%.

我們認為這在標普 500 的前四分位水準中具競爭力。而這就是我們持續這麼做的承諾。但同時，我們也要確保在我們所認定的中週期價格下，股利不會占用我們現金流中不成比例、過度膨脹的一部分。所以我們試著同時管理這兩件事。而通常來說，今天的股利當然是負擔得起、也能成長，但它並不代表整個 45%。

So we're augmenting that with the share repurchases. And we think that makes sense over the long haul. It reduces the absolute burden of the dividend going forward. It might have some pro-cyclic nature to it a little bit. But we aren't -- we don't cling to it steadfast.

因此我們以股票回購來加強這一點。我們認為從長期來看這是合理的。這會降低未來股利的絕對負擔。它可能在某種程度上帶有一點順週期性。但我們不會——我們不會死守不放。

We'll ratchet up and down a little bit quarter-to-quarter to try to manage some of that, but we do want to make sure we hit the 45% made up between the base dividend and whatever shares we're repurchasing in the market, and we try to take a pretty ratable effort to go do that.

我們會在每季之間稍微上調或下調，試著管理其中一部分影響，但我們確實希望確保能達到 45%——由基本股利加上我們在市場上回購的股票所構成——而且我們會盡量以相當平穩、可持續的節奏去執行。

Lloyd Byrne, Jefferies.

Lloyd Byrne，Jefferies。

Can we talk about OpEx a little bit. It continues to stand out. And if you could just maybe comment on its trajectory from here? And then is there anything other than maybe conservatism that keeps you from bringing the full-year guide down?

我們能不能稍微談一下營運費用（OpEx）。它持續特別顯眼。如果可以的話，請你評論一下從現在起它的走勢？另外，除了可能是出於保守之外，還有什麼原因讓你們不把全年指引下調？

Andy here. Yes, so I think I can take this one in terms of we did set our budget at $10.2 billion, and that was, as a reminder, $400 million lower than last year. And as you point out, our 1Q results were very strong. We're really pleased with them. And it's predominantly being driven by that we are taking costs faster than we'd originally premised from our cost reductions, both on the labor side and on the non-labor side with our lease operating costs.

我是 Andy。好的，我想我可以回答這題：我們的預算設定在 102 億美元；提醒一下，這比去年低了 4 億美元。如你所指出，我們第一季的結果非常強勁。我們對此非常滿意。主要原因在於，我們從成本削減中實現降本的速度比原先假設更快，包含人力成本與非人力成本兩方面，尤其是在租賃營運成本（lease operating costs）上。

So when we look at it and Q1 is reinforcing this, we're very confident that we're going to hit that $1 billion in run-rate savings by the year-end. But really to get, I think, to the heart of your question in terms of guidance. I think it is only the first quarter. We're very, very pleased with how things have gone. But we'd like a little bit more time before we revisit whether we would want to reduce guidance or not.

因此當我們來看這件事，而第一季也再次印證，我們非常有信心在年底前達成年化 10 億美元的節省。但要回到你問題的核心、也就是指引方面，我認為畢竟這才第一季。我們對目前的進展非常、非常滿意。但在我們重新評估是否要下調指引之前，我們希望再多一些時間觀察。

Devin McDermott, Morgan Stanley.

Devin McDermott，Morgan Stanley。

I wanted to ask on the LNG portfolio outside of the Middle East first, just a little bit of additional detail on this EG agreement you signed and more broadly, you have this big commercial portfolio of LNG offtake contracts, including 5 million tons off of Port Arthur. I was wondering if you could just give an update on where you stand in marketing and placing those commercial LNG volumes? I'd imagine have gotten more valuable with everything going on in the market right now.

我想先問一下中東以外的 LNG 投資組合，關於你們簽署的這份 EG 協議能否提供更多細節？更廣泛地說，你們有一個龐大的 LNG 商業承購（offtake）合約組合，其中包括 Port Arthur 的 500 萬噸。我想請你更新一下，你們在行銷與配置這些商業 LNG 量方面目前進展到哪裡？我猜在目前市場發生的一切之下，這些合約的價值應該更高了。

Sure. I can start with the second half of your question and then specifically to Equatorial Guinea, I'll let Kirk jump in and maybe share a bit more on that. So yes, our LNG strategy, we -- on the commercial side, we really couldn't be more pleased with the progress we're making. I think as you say that what's happening in the market right now, our view is that we have seen a structural tightening of global LNG, not just for this year but for quite some time to go.

當然。我可以先回答你問題的後半段，然後針對赤道幾內亞（Equatorial Guinea），我會請 Kirk 補充並分享更多細節。是的，我們的 LNG 策略——在商業端——我們對目前取得的進展感到非常滿意，幾乎不能更滿意了。我想如你所說，從目前市場的情況來看，我們的觀點是全球 LNG 出現了結構性趨緊，不只是今年，而是會持續相當長一段時間。

You'll recall that pre all the events in the Middle East, we actually had a bit of a contrarian sort of view versus consensus where we thought the market was more in balance versus sort of the thesis of a bit of a glut. So that's obviously all gone away now. And depending -- I think everyone is now sort of seeing sort of the tightening market.

你會記得，在中東所有事件發生之前，我們其實對市場的看法有點逆勢、與共識不同：我們認為市場更接近平衡，而不是所謂有點供過於求的論點。所以現在那種說法顯然都已經不成立了。而且我想現在大家也都看到了市場正在趨緊。

And as we look at it specifically, where we -- we're in a situation where we've got sort of first movement advantage here now where we've pretty pleased that we put our 10 million tonnes that we already have in place. Just like we think about our E&P portfolio, low cost of supply, in this world, low liquefaction costs are important, we've got that where we've already placed the first 5 million tonnes predominantly to Europe and a bit into Asia for Phase 1. And as you can imagine, sort of the conversations we're having about placing sort of what else we have is intensifying right now with interest in sort of in those volumes that we have.

具體來看，我們目前的情況是：我們在這裡有某種先行者優勢（first movement advantage），我們也很高興已經把既有的 1,000 萬噸配置到位。就像我們看待上游（E&P）投資組合一樣，供應成本低很重要；在這個世界裡，液化成本低也很重要，而我們已具備這點——我們已經把第一階段的前 500 萬噸主要配置到歐洲，並有一部分到亞洲。而你可以想像，關於配置我們其餘可供量的對話，現在正因市場對我們這些量的興趣而加速升溫。

So I think it's just reinforced. The global security element of it as well in terms of the importance of having positions on the Gulf Coast and the value of that. And that's really just played into our strategy really say the first mover event has been very important to us on the commercial side.

所以我認為這一切只是更加強化了我們的判斷。同時也強化了全球能源安全的面向——也就是在墨西哥灣沿岸（Gulf Coast）擁有布局的重要性與其價值。而這也確實與我們的策略相互呼應：先行者優勢在商業端對我們非常重要。

And probably one last comment to make before passing it off to Kirk. It's -- we'd be remiss not to also mention sort of our -- the rest of our resource LNG business outside of commercial with APLNG and others that we’re effectively, those projects are priced off of long-term contracts linked to Brent for the most part. So they're also sort of doing well in this environment as well.

在交給 Kirk 之前，可能還有最後一點要補充。我們也不能不提到：除了商業端之外，我們其餘的資源型 LNG 業務（例如 APLNG 等）——實際上，這些專案多數是以與布蘭特（Brent）連動的長期合約來定價。因此在目前這樣的環境下，它們的表現也相當不錯。

So I think the LNG strategy is all proving out very nicely for us sort of along the lines that we would hope. And then maybe specific to your Equatorial Guinea question. I'll let Kirk jump in.

所以我認為我們的 LNG 策略正如我們所期望的那樣，非常順利地驗證並展現成果。接著針對你關於赤道幾內亞的問題，我讓 Kirk 來補充。

Devin, certainly, as you're pointing to, the EG LNG asset came to us through the Marathon acquisition, and it came with a strong reputation of performance. And so the question for us was really about longevity. And the more we've come to understand just the performance and the capability of that asset and that organization. We've just been really quite pleased.

Devin，正如你所指出，EG LNG 資產是我們透過收購 Marathon 而取得的，而且它帶著很強的營運表現口碑而來。因此對我們而言，問題主要在於它的可持續性與壽命（longevity）。而隨著我們更深入了解該資產與該組織的表現與能力，我們確實感到非常滿意。

As described, certainly in the release, we were able to strike an agreement, a tolling agreement with a third party at EG LNG. And so again, maybe to just step back a bit, this EG LNG asset for us or the Equatorial Guinea asset comes with an upstream operation from the Alba unit. Obviously, we have production facilities offshore, and then there on the island next to Malabo, the capital. And then, of course, we have an equity position in EG LNG as well.

如同新聞稿所述，我們在 EG LNG 與第三方達成了一項加工處理（tolling）協議。再退一步說，對我們而言，這個 EG LNG 資產（或赤道幾內亞資產）同時包含來自 Alba 單元的上游作業。顯然，我們在離岸有生產設施，並且在島上、首都馬拉博（Malabo）附近也有設施。當然，我們也持有 EG LNG 的股權部位。

And so our ability then through EG LNG to strike this agreement then comes with an opportunity to further extend the life of this EG LNG asset. It allows us to run that facility at a strong utilization rate and pushes the life of that asset again well into the 2030s. And that gives us a bit of time, which you've also seen some press from us around the HOAs that we've been striking there with the Ministry in Equatorial Guinea looking at discovered resource.

因此，我們透過 EG LNG 達成這項協議的能力，也帶來了進一步延長 EG LNG 資產壽命的機會。它讓我們能以較高的利用率運行該設施，並將該資產的壽命再次推進到 2030 年代的更後期。這也為我們爭取了一些時間；你們也看到我們在媒體上提到，我們已與赤道幾內亞能源部就我們在當地簽署的 HOA（協議要點）有所進展，並在評估已發現的資源。

And I think that's an important clarification, which is there are opportunities, known resource, specifically gas in and around the island and Equatorial Guinea waters that we can begin pursuing to understand what those look like for us to bring those to a commercial opportunity. And again, utilize the ullage of the capacity that will exist for us long term in that asset.

我認為這裡有一個重要的澄清：我們確實存在機會——已知資源，特別是島嶼周邊以及赤道幾內亞海域的天然氣資源——我們可以開始推進，去了解這些資源對我們而言意味著什麼，以及如何把它們帶入可商業化的機會。並且再次，長期利用該資產中將可供我們使用的剩餘產能（ullage）。

So again, it's an interesting asset. Sales out of EG LNG consists of both SPA and a long-term SPA as well as spot. And it's in a great position to take cargoes both north into Europe or around the horn into Asia. So again, pleased with how this asset is continuing to prove itself out there as well.

所以再說一次，這是一項很有意思的資產。EG LNG 的銷售同時包含 SPA（銷售與採購協議）與長期 SPA，以及現貨（spot）。而且它的地理位置非常好，貨物既可以向北運往歐洲，也可以繞過好望角運往亞洲。因此，我們也很高興看到這項資產在當地持續證明它自身的價值與表現。

Arun Jayaram, JPMorgan.

Arun Jayaram，摩根大通。

I had a quick follow-up on LNG. I was wondering if you could comment how some of the Middle East disruptions are impacting your view of the LNG macro picture. I was wondering if perhaps you can give us a little bit of an update on the NFE and NFS projects, just given some of the disruptions in that part of the world?

我想就LNG做個簡短追問。想請您評論一下，中東地區的一些擾動如何影響您對LNG總體（宏觀）情勢的看法。另外，鑑於該地區的部分干擾，想請您就NFE與NFS專案提供一些最新進展？

Yes, I can start with the macro and then Kirk can go into the specifics on NFE and NFS. From a macro perspective, I kind of touched on this on an earlier answer, but if you think about what's actually happened with the two months that we've basically had, Qatar production shut in, in terms of not going through the straight. That's 20% basically of the LNG sort of that's not flowing. And maybe a better way to put that into context so that people can visualize it. That equates to something like 200 cargoes that have not basically sailed. So, 200 cargoes haven't been delivered.

可以，我先從宏觀面開始，然後Kirk再談NFE與NFS的具體情況。從宏觀角度來看，我在先前的回答中稍微提到過；但如果你回顧我們基本上已經歷的這兩個月，卡達的產量被迫關停，因為無法通過海峽。這相當於大約20%的LNG沒有在流動。或許用另一種方式來說，讓大家更容易想像。這大概等同於約200船貨物基本上沒有啟航。所以，有200船貨物沒有交付。

So our view of the macro is that we likely have already seen a little bit of a structural change here where there's going to be LNG shortages for quite some time. And when we look at basically where we're at with this is it's going to be a situation where prices are likely going to be quite constructive for a period of time as really people are going to have to basically bid on price to sort of manage the demand supply piece of this equation.

因此，我們對宏觀面的看法是：我們很可能已經看到某種結構性變化，也就是LNG短缺將持續相當一段時間。而我們目前看到的情況將會是：在一段時間內，價格很可能會相當有支撐（偏建設性），因為人們必須基本上透過出價競爭來管理這個供需方程式。

And I think when you look at what Qatar's publicly said around the damage to Ras Laffan that it's going to take some time to get that capacity back on the market as well. So our in-house view is that we've essentially seen a bit of a structural change on LNG with all that's happened and it's going to take quite a long time to basically get anything back close to where we used to be.

而且我認為，從卡達公開談到拉斯拉凡（Ras Laffan）受損的情況來看，要讓那部分產能回到市場也需要時間。所以我們內部的看法是：在這一連串事件之後，LNG基本上已出現一些結構性變化，要讓供需回到接近過去的狀態，將需要相當長的時間。

So I think with that, I can let Kirk talk specifically about sort of our position in NFE and NFS but -- so the broader macro is one where I think this is sort of crystallizing to be a little different to the oil in terms of where we know we kind of start to know where we are with this.

因此在這點上，我可以讓Kirk具體談談我們在NFE與NFS的立場；但更廣泛的宏觀面是：我認為這正在逐步明朗，與原油不同，我們對目前所處的位置開始有更清楚的認識。

I would add too, Arun, before Kirk jumps in on NFE and NFS that we're watching gas inventories in Europe that today are well below where they should be given the build that they should be experiencing. So really concerned, depending on the when winter comes across Northern Europe and how hard that winter comes is the gas going to be there. Certainly, the inventories that today at this moment in time would put a kind of a blinky light on some of that going forward. So maybe Kirk can talk specifically about Qatar.

Arun，我也補充一下，在Kirk談NFE與NFS之前，我們正在關注歐洲的天然氣庫存；以今天來看，庫存水位遠低於在應有的補庫進度下應該達到的水平。所以我們非常擔心：當冬季來到北歐、且冬天有多嚴峻時，天然氣是否足夠。當然，就目前此刻的庫存而言，對未來確實亮起了某種警示燈。所以也許Kirk可以具體談談卡達的情況。

Yes. Maybe just a few quick clarifying comments, Arun, on how this certainly is affecting us. Naturally, I think you understand and folks know that one, our single producing asset there in Qatar is N(3). And as a run rate, that was roughly 80,000 barrels of oil equivalent here last year. So a good run rate, and that's roughly 3% of our total company production and very similar on total CFO. So, worth clarifying that the remainder of our global portfolio has been largely unaffected, really unaffected by these recent events. So it's really been quite contained to just simply this N(3) asset.

好的。Arun，也許我先做幾點快速釐清，說明這件事確實如何影響我們。很自然地，我想你也理解，大家也都知道：第一，我們在卡達唯一的在產資產是N(3)。以運行水準（run rate）來看，去年大約是每天8萬桶油當量。這是個不錯的運行水準，約占我們公司總產量的3%，在總營運現金流（CFO）上的占比也非常接近。因此值得釐清的是：我們其餘的全球資產組合基本上沒有受到影響，實際上就是沒有受到這些近期事件的影響。所以影響其實相當集中，僅限於這個N(3)資產。

And naturally, as you'd expect, QatarEnergy QE executed a very controlled ramp down and ultimately largely a shutdown across most of their trains there at Ras Laffan for both security and process integrity reasons, but also because clearly, as Andy mentioned, with the straight closed, there's just limited capacity, if any, to lift cargoes there. As QE disclosed, two trains were struck. Those were not ours. And again, that took just under 12 MTPA off the market.

而且如你所料，卡達能源（QatarEnergy，QE）出於安全與製程完整性考量，對拉斯拉凡的大多數液化列車（trains）採取了非常受控的降載，最終在很大程度上停機；同時也因為如Andy所提到，海峽關閉後，能夠在當地裝運貨物的能力非常有限，甚至可能沒有。如QE所披露，有兩列液化列車遭到打擊。那兩列不是我們的。而這也使得市場供給減少了略低於1,200萬噸/年（MTPA）。

And QatarEnergy has been quite explicit about the fact that they expect that to impact the global market for upwards of three to five years. And so again, unaffected for us. And while it's easy to conflate the construction of NFE/NFS with the operation of those, they're really quite separate. And what we are pleased to see is despite the conflict construction on NFE and NFS both has been progressing. Now naturally, there has been some impacts and some interruptions, but much different than on operations.

而且卡達能源已相當明確表示，他們預期這將對全球市場造成長達三到五年的影響。因此再次強調，對我們而言並未受影響。另外，雖然很容易把NFE/NFS的建設與其營運混為一談，但兩者其實相當分開。我們很高興看到，儘管有衝突，NFE與NFS的建設都仍在推進。當然，確實有一些影響與中斷，但與營運端的影響相比要小得多。

And so -- also, while QE has disclosed that they do expect delays, it's a bit premature to provide really strong guidance on just specifically how that's going to manifest. But I would say, largely, we're expecting the delay to be to the tune of months. And you'll also recall QE guided on second half of this year's start-up. And so it could be possible certainly that, that extends into the early part of next year.

因此——另外，雖然QE已披露他們確實預期會有延遲，但現在要就延遲將如何具體呈現給出非常明確的指引，仍為時過早。但我會說，整體而言，我們預期延遲的幅度大概以「數個月」計。你也會記得，QE先前指引是在今年下半年啟動投產。因此，當然也有可能延伸到明年年初。

So again, we chose to simply guide on production for the company on 2Q removing that from guidance. Certainly felt like that was best in terms of clarity for all and then we'll be watching this closely as both construction and our own production there in QE continue to evolve, very conflict dependent. Hopefully, that's helpful.

所以再次說明，我們選擇在第二季對公司產量做指引時，將那部分自指引中剔除。我們確實認為，這樣對所有人而言在資訊清晰度上是最好的；接下來我們也會密切關注，因為無論是建設進度或我們在QE的自有產量，都會持續演變，且高度取決於衝突情勢。希望這些說明有幫助。

Bob Brackett, Bernstein Research.

Bob Brackett，Bernstein Research。

Apologies for a bit of an educational question, but there's a couple of topics that I'm working on educating folks and you may help. One is just the idea of 101 on price realizations, especially as they pertain to timing given the very sharp moves in crude price we've seen. And the second would be a bit of 101 around the engineering of shut-ins. You guys have certainly a 2020 track record of understanding that stuff, shut-ins and the potential long-term impacts to production. I appreciate that.

抱歉問一個比較偏入門教學的問題，但我正在就幾個主題協助大家建立概念，你們或許能幫忙。第一個是關於「價格實現（price realizations）」的入門概念，特別是考量到我們看到原油價格出現非常劇烈的波動時，時間點如何影響價格實現。第二個是關於關停（shut-ins）工程面的入門概念。你們在2020年確實有相關經驗，理解關停以及其對產量可能造成的長期影響。感謝。

Okay. Bob, Andy here. I'll start with the -- maybe the first part of that question on pricing. I'm looking forward to reading your report on this because you can probably teach us a thing or two as well. But maybe I'll describe it from sort of our perspective from ConocoPhillips. And hopefully, that's helpful, and I'll let Ryan maybe mention -- talk about the other parts of the question.

好的。Bob，我是Andy。我先從——也許先回答你問題中關於定價的第一部分。我很期待讀到你在這方面的報告，因為你可能也能教我們一兩招。不過我先從我們康菲石油（ConocoPhillips）的角度來描述。希望這會有幫助；然後我再讓Ryan也許補充——談談你問題的其他部分。

So in terms of sort of -- I think it might be -- if I answer your question from the pricing, really from our portfolio perspective and then you can sort of -- you can infer from that. When you think about our portfolio, we're in a situation where about 40% of our crude volume is linked to either Alaska or international price markers. And conveniently, that's split pretty equally between the two.

所以就——我想如果我從定價來回答你的問題，會先從我們資產組合的角度切入，然後你可以——你可以由此推論。談到我們的資產組合，我們目前約有40%的原油銷量是連結到阿拉斯加或國際的價格指標。而且剛好這兩者的占比大致各半。

And then specifically to how the -- what we're linked to and how the pricing works, the international crude oil volumes, they're mainly linked to dated Brent pricing, which you've been seeing, we're all -- I think everyone is now talking about dated and ICE like we haven't done it in a long time. But you're seeing basically how the dated Brent basically has been trading at a premium to ICE, more the physical to the ICE.

接著更具體談到——我們連結的是什麼、以及定價如何運作：我們的國際原油銷量主要連結到即期布蘭特（dated Brent）定價；你也看到，我想現在大家又開始談dated與ICE，好像很久沒談了一樣。但你看到的是，即期布蘭特基本上一直以溢價交易於ICE，也就是實貨相對於ICE的溢價。

Now on the ANS side of things for us, ANS is effectively priced off of ICE Brent. So we basically have a bit of a 50-50 split between the two, but with a lot of Brent leverage. And then -- specifically to your question around then, you do see a bit of a lag basically in terms of when do you see the cash versus when do you see the earnings related to these things? So you'll see it flow through the earnings first, obviously, but with the lag basically in timing of when the cash actually comes in.

就我們在 ANS 這一端而言，ANS 的定價基本上是以 ICE Brent 為基準。因此我們基本上在兩者之間大約是 50/50 的分配，但對 Brent 的連動性更高。接著——針對你剛才的問題，你確實會看到一點落後，主要是在「何時看到現金」與「何時看到與這些事項相關的盈餘」之間的時間差。所以你會先在盈餘端看到反映，這是顯而易見的，但現金實際進來的時間點會有些滯後。

And that varies basically market to market for us. But you'll start to see sort of the cash more meaningfully come in sort of a month or so later. So that hopefully helps us explain our exposure to sort of it and sort of maybe help you sort of understand sort of how the importance of whether we're on dated or whether on ICE.

而這基本上會因市場而異。但你會開始看到現金在大約一個月左右之後，才會更明顯地流入。希望這能幫助我們說明我們對此的曝險，並也許幫助你理解我們是採用 dated（即期）還是採用 ICE 的重要性。

But I am going to take an opportunity while you asked the question, there's another point that sometimes gets lost in all of this, this quarter. But yes, we've got that global exposure, and that's really important. But I also want to sort of just mention on our realizations that we have a large Lower 48 component as well, which is obviously priced off of WTI. And we were really pleased with the realizations we were getting on our WTI. I think we had about a 98% realization this quarter.

不過既然你問到這個問題，我也想趁機補充一點：在這一季的討論中，有另一個重點有時會被忽略。沒錯，我們有全球性的曝險，這非常重要。但我也想就我們的實現價格（realizations）提一下：我們也有很大一部分來自美國本土下 48 州（Lower 48）的產量，而那部分顯然是以 WTI 定價。我們對 WTI 的實現價格表現非常滿意。我想本季我們大約達到 98% 的實現率。

And that might get a bit lost when you look at our total company realization when it all gets mixed together because when you mix it all together, you had three or four things happening with you saw the WTI to Brent diff really, really expand out to about $9 a barrel. And then obviously, you've got the timing of the sales that we have in places like Norway. But it is a pretty complicated set of moving parts right now. And there's going to be some timing between cash and earnings that are going to take a month or two to sort of all start to line back up.

當你看我們全公司的總體實現率、把所有項目混在一起時，這點可能會有些被掩蓋，因為混在一起後，你同時看到三、四件事在發生：WTI 對 Brent 的價差大幅擴大到每桶約 9 美元。然後顯然還有我們在挪威等地的銷售時點因素。但目前確實是一組相當複雜、持續變動的因素。而現金與盈餘之間會有一些時間差，可能需要一到兩個月才會逐步重新對齊。

And on your second part, Bob, I assume what you're talking about is the subsurface impact to shut in. And I guess some of our experience would be -- don't have direct experience with a lot of the Middle Eastern assets, Saudi and UAE and others, but probably similar to what we have on the North Slope, very large, productive, high porosity, high permeability assets like that, we wouldn't expect a whole lot of problem with them coming back to -- it will be a ramp-up period to be coming back to pretty much full capacity, minus any surface constraints or issues that were created as a result of damage that they might have above ground.

至於你第二部分的問題，Bob，我猜你指的是關井（shut in）對地下油藏（subsurface）的影響。我們的一些經驗是——我們沒有很多中東資產（沙烏地、阿聯與其他地區）的直接經驗，但可能與我們在北坡（North Slope）的情況類似：那類資產規模很大、產能高、孔隙度高、滲透率高。對於這樣的資產，我們不預期它們恢復生產會有太大問題——會需要一段爬坡期（ramp-up）回到幾乎滿載產能，除非有任何地面設施的限制，或因地面損壞而造成的問題。

But in some of these, you have to ask here, are they keeping the waterflood going while they're shutting in, if that's the case, they're probably building pressure and you probably get some flush production. So it's probably very, very high-level answer to your question, but I wouldn't expect a huge supply impact as they bring back on these fields or damage to the subsurface.

但在其中一些情況下，你得問：他們在關井期間是否仍維持注水驅替（waterflood）？如果是，那他們可能在累積壓力，並可能出現一些「沖刷式」增產（flush production）。所以這大概是對你問題非常高層次的回答，但我不預期在這些油田重新投產時會對供給造成很大的影響，或對地下油藏造成損害。

Josh Silverstein, UBS.

Josh Silverstein，瑞銀（UBS）。

I wanted to get an M&A update from you guys, maybe more from a divestiture angle. I know you guys are very resource rich as you mentioned, and you do have an ongoing divestiture program. I was just curious if these non-core assets are you seeing strengthening valuations for these right now given the higher pricing, does it make you want to be more aggressive in selling assets into this market? And then maybe just an update as to how you're thinking about the Port Arthur Phase 1 equity stake that you have on the investor front?

我想向各位了解一下併購（M&A）的最新情況，可能更偏向資產出售（divestiture）的角度。我知道你們如同提到的，資源非常豐富，而且也有一個持續進行的資產出售計畫。我只是好奇，這些非核心資產在目前較高的價格環境下，你們是否看到估值正在走強？這是否會讓你們更積極地在這個市場出售資產？另外，也想請你們更新一下：就投資人面向而言，你們如何看待你們持有的 Port Arthur 第一期（Phase 1）股權持分？

Yes. I can take that question. So probably worth us putting our divestiture program that we've announced sort of in context. We'd announced a $5 billion program and $3 billion of that is already behind us. So there's about $2 billion of the program that's to go. And I would really very much put this in sort of the business as usual for us. I think it's -- I'll say because I think it's out there in the public markets and being talked about a lot. We do have data room opened in the Permian right now, and we've got a couple of packages in that.

是的。我可以回答這個問題。所以也許值得把我們已宣布的資產出售計畫放在脈絡中來看。我們宣布的是一個 50 億美元的計畫，其中 30 億美元已經完成。因此還剩大約 20 億美元待完成。而我會把這非常明確地視為我們一貫的日常業務（business as usual）。我之所以這麼說，是因為我想這在公開市場上已經被廣泛討論。我們目前確實在二疊紀（Permian）開了資料室（data room），而且裡面有幾個資產包。

And -- but this -- it's really important when we think about this. It's not -- the Permian is not one sort of big thing. It's a collection of assets within a basin. And these are assets that we would consider within the Permian that are non-core to us, probably something that we wouldn't get to in 10 to 15 years, given the depth of our inventory. And of course, yes, we are seeing sort of a lot of interest in that.

不過——在我們思考這件事時，有一點非常重要。二疊紀不是單一的一個「大資產」。它是在同一個盆地內的一組資產集合。而我們在二疊紀中認定為非核心的這些資產，考量到我們庫存（inventory）的深度，可能在未來 10 到 15 年內我們都不會輪到開發。當然，是的，我們確實看到市場對此有相當多的興趣。

But I think it's very, very important to sort of emphasize I think our track record will show this, that we are not going to be schedule driven by this. This will be -- and we won't sell anything that we're not getting full value for. So, we'll go through a process and if we get offers for full value for non-core assets that we're not going to develop for a while, we'll certainly take a look at it. But it's very much around the edges and just the usual portfolio type cleanup work that we always do.

但我認為非常、非常重要的是要強調——我想我們的過往紀錄也能證明——我們不會被時程牽著走。我們也不會在拿不到足額價值（full value）的情況下出售任何資產。所以，我們會走完流程；如果我們對那些短期內不會開發的非核心資產收到足額價值的出價，我們當然會評估。但這非常偏向邊際的調整，基本上就是我們一向在做的投資組合整理（portfolio cleanup）工作。

And then to the last part of your question on Port Arthur Phase 1, we're kind of in a perfect situation here where we certainly don't need to sell anything. That asset is being derisked every day as it comes closer to first production and we'll have that asset online in 2027. So, we can't wait to see that happen. And it's -- I think everything that's happened in the Middle East has just reemphasized sort of the importance of having these secure assets that we have in our portfolio.

至於你問題最後一部分，關於 Port Arthur 第一期，我們目前處在一個很理想的狀態：我們當然不需要出售任何東西。隨著它愈接近首次投產（first production），這個資產每天都在去風險（derisked），而我們會在 2027 年讓該資產上線。所以，我們非常期待看到那件事發生。而且——我認為中東發生的一切，只是再次凸顯我們投資組合中擁有這些安全資產的重要性。

So maybe a day will come in the future where we get an offer that basically, it fits into sort of an infrastructure type investment. But we're certainly under sort of no need to basically sell that asset. And I can't really see why we would contemplate that while it's still under construction. We'd rather get it on and maybe in the future it isn't core, but nothing there that I would say that we're not happy with.

所以也許未來某一天，我們會收到一個出價，基本上符合某種基礎設施型投資（infrastructure type investment）的定位。但我們完全沒有任何必要去出售那個資產。而且在它仍在建造期間，我也看不出我們為什麼會考慮這麼做。我們寧可先把它投產；也許未來它不再是核心資產，但就目前而言，沒有任何我會說我們不滿意的地方。

Philip Jungwirth, BMO Capital Markets.

Philip Jungwirth，BMO 資本市場（BMO Capital Markets）。

Your Montney position has a lot of resource and you've had better results than some of the offset operators up there. Just wondering what's the appetite or value creation opportunity to add to this liquids-rich position where others might not have the same technical understanding or operational capabilities? And separately, could Canada at all fit into the LNG offtake strategy, if you were to target the high end of 10 to 15 MTPA?

你們在 Montney 的部位擁有大量資源，而且你們的成果比一些鄰近（offset）的營運商更好。想請教你們：在其他人可能沒有同樣的技術理解或營運能力的情況下，你們對於加碼這個富含液體（liquids-rich）的部位，有多大的意願或價值創造機會？另外，如果你們要把 LNG 承購（offtake）策略的目標拉到 10 到 15 MTPA 的高端，加拿大是否可能納入其中？

Yes, Phillip. I appreciate the question on Montney. We've been continuing to see some really strong performance, and certainly, as you highlight, coming out of our Montney asset. We've been progressing this in a very disciplined and deliberate manner. And while we're out of the appraisal phase, we are admittedly still in what we would describe as early development, actively optimizing our plans and incorporating all of the learnings that are really quite unique to the basin.

是的，Phillip。謝謝你關於 Montney 的問題。我們持續看到非常強勁的表現，正如你所指出的，特別是來自我們 Montney 資產的表現。我們一直以非常嚴謹且審慎的方式推進這項工作。而雖然我們已經走出評估（appraisal）階段，但坦白說，我們仍處於我們所稱的早期開發（early development）階段，正積極優化我們的計畫，並納入那些對該盆地而言相當獨特的所有學習成果。

And as well as all of the optimizations that we're able to reap from our mature and very distinguished position here in the Lower 48. We've been running roughly one rig and expect to continue in a very similar pace and fashion because, again, certainly, as we've experienced in the Lower 48, when we naturally pair up really strong crews, whether it be drilling and completions with each other. We, too, are seeing some really strong performance across the two.

以及我們在美國本土 48 州（Lower 48）這裡，憑藉成熟且極具差異化的優勢地位所能獲得的各項最佳化效益。我們大致維持一座鑽機在運行，並預期將以非常相近的節奏與方式持續下去，因為再次強調，正如我們在 Lower 48 的經驗所示，當我們自然地把非常強的團隊配對在一起——不論是鑽井與完井彼此搭配。我們也在這兩者上看到非常強勁的表現。

And we like the performance again because it is so strong liquids. We're roughly 50% liquids with a couple of streams there between NGLs and then condensate and crude, and we're able to take advantage within that liquids market of each one of those. And so it's a very competitive resource. Naturally, we do, in fact, because we have such a strong position, and we've been seeing such good performance. We're watching the opportunities. We watch the landscape, but certainly as it relates to M&A or BD work, we'll be smart about this.

而我們喜歡這樣的表現，因為液體產出非常強。我們大約有 50% 是液體，包含幾個產品流，介於 NGL（天然氣液）以及凝析油與原油之間，而我們能在液體市場中充分利用其中每一項。因此這是一項非常具競爭力的資源。當然，確實如此，因為我們擁有如此強勢的部位，而且我們一直看到這麼好的表現。我們正在觀察機會。我們關注整體態勢，但就併購（M&A）或商務開發（BD）工作而言，我們會審慎而為。

And if we see there's an opportunity that creates a lot of synergies for us, naturally, we'd entertain that. And then, of course, on the gas side, because we are so dominant in the liquids position, this is not a major driver for us. And in fact, we're naturally hedged to some degree because we use fuel gas. We use the gas directly associated with Surmont and our operations there in the oil sands. So I would say we're encouraged to hear that there are plans for the next phase of LNG offtake coming out of Canada.

如果我們看到某個機會能為我們創造大量協同效益，當然我們會考慮。然後，當然在天然氣方面，因為我們在液體部位上非常占優，這並不是我們的主要驅動因素。事實上，我們在某種程度上是自然避險的，因為我們使用燃料氣。我們直接使用與 Surmont 以及我們在油砂業務營運相關的天然氣。所以我會說，我們很樂見聽到加拿大接下來一階段 LNG 承購（offtake）的規劃。

We'd like to see Canada bringing much more scope and scale at a better pace there. And so I would just say our growth plans are certainly dependent on offtake to get very aggressive in the Montney with our own development plans are going to -- we're going to need to see a call on those barrels and on that gas and more offtake coming out of BC. So again, I would just say this is something for us to watch carefully, and we'd like to see some more progress by those who are maturing those projects.

我們希望看到加拿大以更好的速度帶來更大的範疇與規模。因此我想說，我們的成長計畫確實取決於承購（offtake）；若要在 Montney 以我們自身的開發計畫採取非常積極的作法——我們將需要看到對那些桶數與那部分天然氣的需求召喚（call on），以及來自卑詩省（BC）更多的承購外運能力。所以再次強調，這是我們需要密切觀察的事項，我們也希望那些推進並成熟化這些專案的人能有更多進展。

Maybe I'll just quickly jump in there as well, very directly from a commercial LNG perspective. We'd be very happy to have a bit more offtake on the West Coast. But just like our E&P portfolio, with cost of supply, liquefaction fees basically drives everything. And as we look at it, if there's competitive liquefaction fees, from expansions that happen and new projects in Canada, we'd be -- we'd certainly want to take a look at that just like we'd take to look at offtake from many other locations. So yes. I think having some West Coast offtake wouldn't be a bad thing in our portfolio.

我也許也快速補充一下，從商業 LNG 的角度非常直接地說。我們會很樂於在西岸有更多承購（offtake）。但就像我們的勘探與生產（E&P）投資組合一樣，供應成本與液化費基本上驅動一切。而我們在評估時，如果加拿大的擴建與新專案能提供具競爭力的液化費，我們——我們當然會想看看，就像我們也會評估來自許多其他地點的承購一樣。所以是的。我認為在我們的投資組合中擁有一些西岸承購並不是壞事。

Alastair Syme, Citi.

Alastair Syme，花旗（Citi）。

I wonder if I can get you to talk to the attractiveness of incremental capital of the Delaware versus refrac opportunities in the Eagle Ford? How would you compare and contrast those?

我想請你談談：相較於在 Eagle Ford 的再壓裂（refrac）機會，對 Delaware 增量資本投入的吸引力如何？你會如何比較與對照這兩者？

Yes. So if you look at the Delaware and Eagle Ford, obviously, they're quite different. But on the refracs in the Eagle Ford, we do typically do 50 or 60 in a year -- you can think about -- you can execute one for about 60% of a development well and get a 60% uplift on that original completion on your EOR. So, in that case, you're looking at kind of mid-$30 cost of supply to upper $30 for refracs. If you then go to the Delaware, which is some of our lower cost of supply, you're executing currently kind of the low $30s to mid-30s.

是的。所以如果你看 Delaware 與 Eagle Ford，顯然它們差異很大。但在 Eagle Ford 的再壓裂方面，我們通常一年會做 50 或 60 口——你可以這樣想——每口大約用開發井 60% 的成本就能執行，並在你的最終採收率（EOR）上，對原始完井帶來約 60% 的提升。因此在那種情況下，你看到的供應成本大概是每桶中段 30 多美元到高段 30 多美元的區間（再壓裂）。如果再看 Delaware，那是我們供應成本較低的一些資產，我們目前的執行大概在每桶低 30 多美元到中段 30 多美元。

So from an overall Delaware, we'll have a stronger overall return than a refrac, but they're very, very close. We're talking probably $2 to $5 of cost supply difference. So very, very, very competitive in the portfolio between those two opportunity sets.

因此就整體而言，Delaware 的總回報會比再壓裂更強，但兩者非常、非常接近。我們談的供應成本差異大概只有 2 到 5 美元。所以在這兩組機會之間，在投資組合中都非常、非常、非常有競爭力。

Kevin MacCurdy, Pickering Energy Partners.

Kevin MacCurdy，Pickering Energy Partners。

Looking at the updated capital program this year, you addressed the Permian activity earlier. But on slide 5 of your deck, you show some potential variance in regard to the macro, Middle East uncertainty. Can you expand on that a little bit? Would this just be deferred Middle East spending? Or are there any other considerations represented in that chart?

看今年更新後的資本計畫，你先前已談到 Permian 的活動。但在你們簡報第 5 頁，你們顯示在總體環境與中東不確定性方面可能存在一些變動。你能再多說一點嗎？這只是中東支出的遞延嗎？還是那張圖表中還代表其他考量？

I think predominantly, I think, as Kirk's covered and I've covered it earlier, it's really a range of uncertainty on what happens with NFE and NFS capital during the year. I think Nick also covered one of the other uncertainties and Ryan covered that we don't know exactly what's going to happen on the non-operated side in the Lower 48, but we're not going to -- as we described, we're not going to put ourselves in a situation where if we get balloted that we won't participate in low cost of supply projects.

我認為主要是——我想 Kirk 已經說明過、我先前也提過——這其實是今年 NFE 與 NFS 資本支出會如何發展的一個不確定性區間。我想 Nick 也提到另一項不確定性，而 Ryan 也提到，我們並不確定在美國本土 48 州（Lower 48）的非作業方（non-operated）那一側究竟會發生什麼，但我們不會——如我們所描述的——讓自己陷入一種情況：如果我們被投票要求參與（get balloted），卻無法參與低供應成本的專案。

So I would just take it as a general uncertainty bar right now in a very uncertain world basically.

所以我會把它視為：在一個非常不確定的世界裡，目前的一般性不確定性區間。

Thank you. Ladies and gentlemen, this concludes today's conference. Thank you for participating. You may now disconnect.

謝謝。各位女士、先生，今天的會議到此結束。感謝各位參與。您現在可以斷線。