Mr Cooper Group Inc (COOP) 2024 Q3 法說會逐字稿

Good day, and thank you for standing by. Welcome to the Mr. Cooper Group Q3 2024 Earnings Conference Call. (Operator Instructions) Please be advised that today's conference is being recorded. I would now like to hand the conference over to your first speaker at Mr. Cooper Group. Please go ahead

美好的一天，感謝您的支持。歡迎參加 Mr. Cooper Group 2024 年第三季財報電話會議。（操作員指示）請注意，今天的會議正在錄製中。現在我想將會議交給庫柏先生集團的第一位發言人。請繼續

Good morning, and welcome to Mr. Cooper Group's third quarter earnings call. My name is Ken Posner, and I'm SVP of Strategic Planning and Investor Relations. With me today are Jay Bray, Chairman and CEO; Mike Weinbach, President; and Kurt Johnson, Executive Vice President and CFO.

早安，歡迎參加庫柏集團第三季​​財報電話會議。我叫肯‧波斯納 (Ken Posner)，是策略規劃與投資人關係資深副總裁。今天與我在一起的有董事長兼執行長傑伊·布雷 (Jay Bray)；麥克‧溫巴赫，總裁；執行副總裁兼財務長 Kurt Johnson。

As this call is being recorded, our Investor Relations web page at investors.mrcoopergroup.com. During the call, we may refer to non-GAAP measures, which are reconciled to GAAP results in the appendix to the slide deck. Also, we may make forward-looking statements, which you should understand could be affected by risk factors that we've identified in our 10-K and other SEC filings. We are not undertaking any commitment to update these statements if conditions change. I'll now turn the call over to Jay.

在錄製本次電話會議時，我們的投資者關係網頁：investors.mrcoopergroup.com。在電話會議期間，我們可能會參考非 GAAP 衡量標準，這些衡量標準與幻燈片附錄中的 GAAP 結果一致。此外，我們可能會做出前瞻性聲明，您應該了解這些聲明可能會受到我們在 10-K 和其他 SEC 文件中確定的風險因素的影響。我們不承諾在情況改變時更新這些聲明。我現在將把電話轉給傑伊。

Good morning, everyone, and thank you for joining our call. Let's dive into the quarterly highlights, starting on Slide 3. In summary, we produced a very solid quarter with pretax operating income of $246 million and operating ROTCE of 16.8%, which is at the upper end of our guidance.

大家早安，感謝您加入我們的通話。讓我們從幻燈片 3 開始深入了解季度亮點。總而言之，我們的季度業績非常穩健，稅前營業收入為 2.46 億美元，營業 ROTCE 為 16.8%，處於我們指導的上限。

Tangible book value grew 11% year-over-year to $69.93 per share, and our balance sheet remains in strong shape with a capital ratio of 27.9% and liquidity at a record high of $4.1 billion. Turning to operations. We grew the servicing portfolio to $1.2 trillion, which represents 5.4 million customers and generated $305 million in pretax servicing income, thanks to continued strong operating leverage.

有形帳面價值年增 11%，達到每股 69.93 美元，我們的資產負債表保持強勁，資本比率為 27.9%，流動性達到創紀錄的 41 億美元。轉向營運。由於持續強勁的營運槓桿，我們將服務組合擴大到 1.2 兆美元，代表 540 萬客戶，並產生了 3.05 億美元的稅前服務收入。

Our Originations segment generated $69 million of pretax income which significantly exceeded our guidance. This was, of course, due in part to the drop in mortgage rates in the quarter. However, we also benefited from investments we've been making in both our direct-to-consumer and correspondent platforms, which together out-indexed the market with 80% sequential growth in fundings.

我們的起源部門產生了 6900 萬美元的稅前收入，大大超出了我們的指導。當然，部分原因是本季抵押貸款利率下降。然而，我們也受益於我們對直接面向消費者和代理商平台的投資，這些平台的資金環比增長超過了市場指數 80%。

I'm also very pleased to report that Mr. Cooper was certified once again as a great place to work, which now makes 6 consecutive years that we've received this special recognition. We put a lot of care into creating a purposeful and welcoming environment for our team members. And I'm delighted with this independent validation of our culture and our people.

我還非常高興地向大家報告，庫柏先生再次被認證為最佳工作場所，這使得我們已經連續 6 年獲得這項特殊認可。我們非常注重為團隊成員創造一個有目的且熱情的環境。我很高興看到我們的文化和員工得到了獨立的認可。

Finally, I'll mention that the Flagstar acquisition remains on schedule to close in the fourth quarter. We've been spending a lot of time getting to know the very talented team members in Flagstar's mortgage operations, and we're excited to welcome them to the Cooper family.

最後，我要提到的是，對 Flagstar 的收購仍按計劃在第四季度完成。我們花了很多時間來了解 Flagstar 抵押貸款業務中非常有才華的團隊成員，我們很高興歡迎他們加入 Cooper 大家庭。

If you'll turn to Slide 4, I'll just share some thoughts about our competitive position as we look ahead into 2025 and beyond. As you know, we're very proud of our 20-year track record of portfolio growth, which has culminated in $1.2 trillion in outstandings.

如果您翻到投影片 4，我將分享一些關於我們展望 2025 年及以後的競爭地位的想法。如您所知，我們對 20 年的投資組合成長記錄感到非常自豪，其未償還餘額達到 1.2 兆美元。

However, a different way to think of scale is that we now have 5.4 million customers, which will rise to over 6 million when Flagstar closes. This makes us the single largest customer franchise in the mortgage industry. Now our mission is to help every single customer achieve the dream of home ownership.

然而，看待規模的另一種方式是，我們現在擁有 540 萬客戶，當 Flagstar 關閉時，數字將增加到超過 600 萬。這使我們成為抵押貸款行業最大的單一客戶特許經營商。現在我們的使命是幫助每位客戶實現置業夢想。

And we are constantly working with them through a variety of channels, answering questions, suggesting opportunities to save money or providing assistance when they face challenges. As of today, we're running at 152 million customer interactions per year. As a result, we have amassed an enormous amount of information about how best to serve mortgage customers.

我們不斷透過各種管道與他們合作，回答問題，建議省錢的機會，或在他們面臨挑戰時提供協助。截至目前，我們每年進行 1.52 億次客戶互動。因此，我們累積了大量有關如何最好地服務抵押貸款客戶的資訊。

In fact, our data lake now contains 16 petabytes. In a world of digital technology and especially AI, this data gives us a real advantage when it comes to understanding customers' needs and how to create value for them. Our goal is to become increasingly more proactive at anticipating their needs and faster at solving them.

事實上，我們的資料湖現在包含 16 PB。在數位科技尤其是人工智慧的世界中，這些數據在了解客戶需求以及如何為他們創造價值方面為我們提供了真正的優勢。我們的目標是更主動地預測他們的需求並更快地解決它們。

So if you'll turn to Slide 5, I'll summarize the investment plans we've put in place to implement this vision, which we're now in the process of finalizing for our 2025 budget. To start with, we're investing in multiple areas to continue improving the customer experience. One such area is AI in the call center where earlier this month, we began piloting Agent IQ.

因此，如果您翻到投影片 5，我將總結我們為實現這一願景而製定的投資計劃，我們現在正在最終確定 2025 年預算。首先，我們正在多個領域進行投資，以持續改善客戶體驗。其中一個領域是呼叫中心的人工智慧，本月早些時候，我們開始試行 Agent IQ。

This app is a state-of-the-art AI-driven coaching platform, which listens to calls in real time, assess the sentiment and prompts our team members on how best to help the customer. We're also continuing to invest in our digital first platform, which consists of self-serve channels like web, mobile and IVR where customers can access information at their fingertips.

該應用程式是一個最先進的人工智慧驅動的輔導平台，它可以即時監聽電話、評估情緒並提示我們的團隊成員如何最好地幫助客戶。我們也繼續投資我們的數位第一平台，該平台由網路、行動和 IVR 等自助服務管道組成，客戶可以在其中輕鬆存取資訊。

Our second focus area is originations where we believe we can sustainably gain market share in both our DTC and correspondent channels. We are working on enhancements for customers, including a faster and easier application process. and we are continuing to componentize and automate our workflows with the goal of driving lower unit cost savings in faster cycle times.

我們的第二個重點領域是我們相信我們可以在 DTC 和代理商通路中持續獲得市場份額的起源。我們正在努力為客戶提供增強功能，包括更快、更輕鬆的申請流程。我們正在繼續對工作流程進行組件化和自動化，目標是在更快的周期時間內降低單位成本。

Our third focus area is loss mitigation, which may surprise you since delinquencies are so low today. But we know the cycle will eventually turn. We're working on innovative technologies, which will increase our capacity to help customers in what might be more difficult environments in the future.

我們的第三個重點領域是減輕損失，這可能會讓您感到驚訝，因為今天的拖欠率如此之低。但我們知道這個循環最終會逆轉。我們正在研究創新技術，這將提高我們在未來可能更加困難的環境中為客戶提供幫助的能力。

Finally, to support all these initiatives, we're constantly strengthening the core. Last week, we announced the promotion of Streeter Sharma to Chief Innovation and Digital Officer, and the hiring of Jeff Carroll as Chief Technology Officer. Jeff's mission is to ensure our cloud-native tech stack is ready for the next leg of customer growth.

最後，為了支持所有這些舉措，我們不斷加強核心。上週，我們宣布晉升 Streeter Sharma 為首席創新和數位官，並任命 Jeff Carroll 為技術長。Jeff 的使命是確保我們的雲端原生技術堆疊為下一階段的客戶成長做好準備。

These investments will benefit our customers, clients and investors and they will drive long-term productivity gains for the company. We can afford to make these investments because the company is generating consistent, strong profitability and cash flow. In fact, I would say, based on my 25 years of experience here that there is as much excitement in the company and energy among our people as I've ever seen.

這些投資將使我們的客戶、客戶和投資者受益，並將推動公司生產力的長期提升。我們有能力進行這些投資，因為該公司正在產生持續、強勁的獲利能力和現金流。事實上，我想說的是，根據我 25 年在這裡工作的經驗，我們公司的員工充滿活力，員工充滿活力，這是我從未見過的。

In the last few years, we've had important strategic milestones. We've emerged as a scale leader in our industry, and we're gratified to see market recognition of this in a rising stock price, which recently hit a record high, yet the stock valuation is still quite modest in our view, at only 8x consensus 2025 earnings despite a significant runway for growth and rising return on equity.

在過去幾年中，我們取得了重要的策略里程碑。我們已經成為行業中的規模領導者，我們很高興看到市場對這一點的認可，股價不斷上漲，最近創下了歷史新高，但我們認為股票估值仍然相當溫和，僅為儘管增長勢頭強勁且股本回報率不斷上升，但2025 年預期收益為8 倍。

We think there's still a meaningful opportunity for investors to join us on this journey, and we continue to view stock repurchase as a smart way to invest the company's own capital. And with that, I'll turn the call over to our President, Mike Weinbach, to take you through our operational results in more detail.

我們認為投資者仍然有一個有意義的機會加入我們的旅程，並且我們繼續將股票回購視為投資公司自有資本的明智方式。接下來，我會將電話轉給我們的總裁 Mike Weinbach (Mike Weinbach)，讓您更詳細地了解我們的營運成果。

Thanks, Jay, and good morning, everyone. I'd like to start by reviewing the Servicing segment, where we reported pretax income of $305 million, which is up 38% year-over-year, thanks to strong portfolio growth of 32% year-over-year and positive operating leverage. Let me start by commenting on macro factors, specifically interest rates.

謝謝傑伊，大家早安。我想先回顧一下服務部門，該部門的稅前收入為 3.05 億美元，年增 38%，這得益於 32% 的強勁投資組合成長和積極的營運槓桿。讓我先評論宏觀因素，特別是利率。

As you can see on the chart on the upper right, CPRs rose sequentially from 5.5% to 6.2%, which contributed to somewhat higher amortization in the quarter. We expect CPRs to continue rising in fourth quarter and throughout 2025, so higher amortization will be a theme for servicing as well as some pressure on net interest income due to the custodial deposits we manage, which are sensitive to the Fed funds rate.

正如您在右上角的圖表中看到的那樣，CPR 連續從 5.5% 上升至 6.2%，這導致本季攤銷增加。我們預計 CPR 將在第四季度和整個 2025 年繼續上升，因此更高的攤銷將成為服務的主題，並且由於我們管理的託管存款對聯邦基金利率敏感，因此淨利息收入將承受一定壓力。

However, we expect the impact of interest rates on servicing to be offset by gains in originations, which is the nature of our balanced business model. And meanwhile, we continue to deliver very strong operating leverage. So let's turn to Slide 7 and drill down on this topic. Due to strong portfolio growth, servicing revenues increased by 38% year-over-year.

然而，我們預期利率對服務的影響將被起源收益所抵消，這是我們平衡業務模式的本質。同時，我們繼續提供非常強大的營運槓桿。讓我們轉向幻燈片 7 並深入探討這個主題。由於產品組合強勁成長，服務收入較去年同期成長 38%。

At the same time, as you can see from the chart on the left, servicing FTEs actually dead by 8%. This is the result of a large number of process improvements, including our digital-first strategy, which makes more information available to customers and the channels they prefer which are typically self-served channels rather than phone calls.

同時，從左圖可以看出，為 FTE 提供服務的人員實際上減少了​​ 8%。這是大量流程改進的結果，包括我們的數位優先策略，該策略為客戶和他們喜歡的管道提供更多信息，這些管道通常是自助管道而不是電話。

The chart on the right shows you the continued decline we're seeing in calls per loan, while utilization of other channels, including chat IVR, mobile and web is rising. Now phone calls will remain a critical channel for many customers, and we're committed to making this an excellent experience for them.

右圖顯示，每筆貸款的呼叫次數持續下降，而其他管道（包括聊天 IVR、行動和網路）的利用率卻在上升。現在，電話仍然是許多客戶的重要管道，我們致力於為他們提供卓越的體驗。

If you'll turn to Slide 8, I'll give you a quick preview of our latest innovation, which Jay referenced, our Pro AgentIQ AI-driven coaching platform. This slide shows you the display that comes up on our team members' screens when they're taking a call.

如果您轉向幻燈片 8，我將向您快速預覽我們的最新創新，Jay 提到了我們的 Pro AgentIQ 人工智慧驅動的輔導平台。這張投影片向您展示了我們的團隊成員接聽電話時螢幕上出現的顯示內容。

As the AI listens in real time, you can see a sentiment indicator towards the top as well as information about the customer's question to the right, while on the bottom of the screen are suggested actions. This platform is one example of how we leverage those 16 petabytes of data. As it listens to the conversation, the AI system is reviewing a huge number of call logs to understand the most likely issues on the customer's mind and have our team members to most efficiently solve these problems for other customers.

當人工智慧即時監聽時，您可以看到頂部的情緒指示器以及右側有關客戶問題的信息，而螢幕底部是建議的操作。該平台是我們如何利用這 16 PB 數據的範例之一。當人工智慧系統監聽對話時，它會審查大量的通話記錄，以了解客戶最可能想到的問題，並讓我們的團隊成員最有效地為其他客戶解決這些問題。

The system then prompts the agent with suggestions on how to proceed with the conversation or what kind of information the customer may be looking for. The goal of Agent IQ is to make our people extremely productive by helping them learn from best practices across our call center.

然後，系統會向客服人員提示如何繼續對話或客戶可能正在尋找哪種資訊的建議。Agent IQ 的目標是幫助我們的員工學習呼叫中心的最佳實踐，從而提高他們的工作效率。

Also by saving them the chore of manually looking up files, the system lets our team members focus empathetically on the customer and their needs. We started piloting Agent IQ earlier this quarter and expected to roll out in both servicing and originations in 2025. To wrap up on servicing, considering the impact of interest rates, our continued success in driving efficiencies and the closing of Flagstar acquisition, we'd guide you to a range of $285 million to $305 million in pretax servicing income for the fourth quarter.

此外，透過省去手動尋找文件的繁瑣工作，該系統讓我們的團隊成員能夠集中精力關注客戶及其需求。我們在本季早些時候開始試行 Agent IQ，預計將於 2025 年在服務和發起領域推出。最後，考慮到利率的影響、我們在提高效率方面的持續成功以及 Flagstar 收購的完成，我們建議您第四季度的稅前服務收入範圍為 2.85 億美元至 3.05 億美元。

So now let's move on to talk about the Origination segment where we significantly outperformed our $35 million to $45 million guidance with pretax income hitting $69 million. I'll start on Slide 9 by double clicking on DTC, where we funded $2.3 billion, up 35% from second quarter.

現在讓我們繼續討論起源細分市場，我們的業績顯著超出了 3500 萬至 4500 萬美元的指導，稅前收入達到 6900 萬美元。我將從幻燈片 9 開始，雙擊 DTC，我們在該項目上融資 23 億美元，比第二季度增長 35%。

Clearly, our DTC team did an excellent job with execution this quarter, taking advantage of the rate drop in September to help customers save money and access equity. I'll also share that they responded very effectively to some market pressure in the quarter through innovative marketing and competitive pricing, which helped us sustain our recapture rate of nearly 70% despite higher volumes.

顯然，我們的 DTC 團隊在本季的執行方面表現出色，利用 9 月的利率下降幫助客戶節省資金並獲得權益。我還要分享的是，他們透過創新的營銷和有競爭力的定價，非常有效地應對了本季度的一些市場壓力，這幫助我們在銷量增加的情況下維持了近 70% 的回收率。

The strong performance also reflected several initiatives that came together during the quarter. For one, Project Flash is producing efficiency gains in faster cycle times. Additionally, this year, we kicked off another project, which we call front office modernization, which includes improvements to the customer experience, such as new self-serve options, and this is starting to drive higher sales team productivity as well as higher customer satisfaction scores.

強勁的業績也反映了本季採取的多項措施。其一，Project Flash 正以更快的週期時間提高效率。此外，今年，我們啟動了另一個項目，我們稱之為前台現代化，其中包括改進客戶體驗，例如新的自助服務選項，這開始推動更高的銷售團隊生產力和更高的客戶滿意度分數。

Also contributing to strong results this quarter, we've been adding capacity. So far this year, our amazing talent acquisition team has brought in over 300 new team members, giving us the capacity to move quickly when rates are favorable as we just demonstrated. We've also been working to shorten the time it takes a higher onboard and train new team members.

我們一直在增加產能，這也為本季的強勁業績做出了貢獻。今年到目前為止，我們令人驚嘆的人才招募團隊已經引進了 300 多名新團隊成員，使我們能夠在利率優惠時快速採取行動，正如我們剛才所展示的那樣。我們也一直在努力縮短上崗所需的時間並培訓新的團隊成員。

Overall, we're in a great position to take advantage of lower rates, whether they're sustained or current intermittent rallies has happened in September. As a reminder, our customer base has been gradually shifting with approximately 20% of our customers now having note rates of 6% or higher. If you're interested, you can find a chart with a full rate stack for our MSR portfolio in the appendix.

總體而言，我們處於有利的位置，可以利用較低的利率，無論利率是持續的還是9月出現的間歇性反彈。提醒一下，我們的客戶群已經逐漸發生變化，目前大約 20% 的客戶的票據利率為 6% 或更高。如果您有興趣，可以在附錄中找到我們的 MSR 投資組合的完整費率堆疊圖表。

Turning to Slide 10. Our correspondent team produced truly extraordinary results, more than doubling volumes from second quarter. And I would add that this was without sacrificing margin. Now let me remind you that over the last 2 years, we stepped back from correspondent to some degree because we correctly anticipated a dislocation in the bulk market. And we allocated most of our capital to that opportunity, where option-adjusted spreads for seasoned pools were historically attractive.

轉到投影片 10。我們的通訊團隊取得了真正非凡的成果，數量比第二季增加了一倍以上。我想補充一點，這並沒有犧牲利潤。現在讓我提醒您，在過去的兩年裡，我們在某種程度上放棄了通訊員，因為我們正確地預見了大宗市場的混亂。我們將大部分資金分配給了這個機會，經驗豐富的資金池的選擇調整利差在歷史上具有吸引力。

However, at the same time, we were launching initiatives to level up our corresponding platform since we knew the cycle would eventually turn. Much of our work focused on developing more granular pricing models, allowing us to win the right loans at the right prices.

然而，與此同時，我們正在發起舉措來升級我們相應的平台，因為我們知道週期最終會逆轉。我們的大部分工作重點是開發更精細的定價模型，使我們能夠以合適的價格贏得合適的貸款。

Additionally, we went through an exhaustive review of our client relationships and found ways to deepen penetration. We made several process improvements to speed up cycle times. We rolled out a new client portal and we also took specific steps to improve capital markets execution.

此外，我們對客戶關係進行了詳細的審查，並找到了加深滲透的方法。我們進行了多項流程改善以加快週期時間。我們推出了新的客戶門戶，也採取了具體措施來改善資本市場的執行。

At the same time, we've remained disciplined with respect to credit risk and manufacturing quality, and we have no plans to loosen standards. Looking ahead, we see an opportunity to grow significantly in correspondent. Given our cost leadership as a scaled servicer and our industry-leading recapture, we should be the best buyer of MSRs, not only in the bulk market, but in all markets.

同時，我們在信用風險和製造品質方面仍然保持嚴格的紀律，並且沒有計劃放鬆標準。展望未來，我們看到了通訊員大幅成長的機會。鑑於我們作為規模化服務商的成本領先地位以及行業領先的重新奪回能力，我們應該成為 MSR 的最佳買家，不僅在大宗市場，而且在所有市場。

To sum up, third quarter should give you a strong hint as to the potential we have in originations. And as we look ahead to 2025, we expect originations to make a much larger contribution to the company's overall financial returns. Having said that, as you know, there's a timing difference between revenue and expense recognition and the funding costs associated with strong rate locks in the third quarter will be recognized in the fourth quarter.

總而言之，第三季應該會給您一個強烈的提示，讓您了解我們在原創方面的潛力。展望 2025 年，我們預期新創公司將為公司的整體財務回報做出更大的貢獻。話雖如此，如您所知，收入和費用確認之間存在時間差異，與第三季度強有力的利率鎖定相關的融資成本將在第四季度確認。

Additionally, mortgage rates have backed up since September, reducing some of the opportunity to help customers with rate and term refinances. As such, we'd guide you for now to a more normalized level of profitability in fourth quarter with pretax originations income in a range of $45 million to $65 million. With that, I'll hand it over to Kurt.

此外，抵押貸款利率自 9 月以來有所回升，減少了幫助客戶進行利率和定期再融資的一些機會。因此，我們目前建議您第四季的獲利能力達到更正常的水平，稅前來源收入在 4500 萬美元至 6500 萬美元之間。這樣，我就把它交給庫爾特了。

Thanks, Mike, and good morning, everyone. I'll start on Slide 11 with a brief recap of our financials. To summarize, net income was $80 million, which included $246 million in pretax operating earnings, offset by $126 million negative MSR mark net of hedges, and adjustment of $6 million, which consisted of $4 million in transaction costs related to the final onboarding of customers from the Home Point acquisition and a $2 million loss associated with equity investments.

謝謝麥克，大家早安。我將從幻燈片 11 開始簡要回顧我們的財務狀況。總而言之，淨利潤為8000 萬美元，其中包括2.46 億美元的稅前營業利潤，被扣除對沖後的1.26 億美元的MSR 負標記以及600 萬美元的調整所抵消，其中包括與最終客戶入職相關的400萬美元的交易成本因收購 Home Point 以及與股權投資相關的 200 萬美元損失。

I would point out that corporate debt interest expense increased from $67 million to $75 million sequentially, reflecting 2 months of interest expense from the senior notes issued in August. Starting in the fourth quarter, you should model $79 million in quarterly corporate net interest expense to account for the full impact of the new issuance.

我要指出的是，公司債務利息支出從 6,700 萬美元連續增加到 7,500 萬美元，反映了 8 月發行的優先票據的 2 個月利息支出。從第四季度開始，您應該對季度企業淨利息支出 7,900 萬美元進行建模，以考慮新發行的全部影響。

During the quarter, we marked down the MSR by $415 million due to lower interest rates and expectations for higher CPRs, leading to a quarter end valuation of 148 basis points via PV or a 5.1% multiple of the base servicing strip. This was offset by $289 million in hedge gains, which equates to 70% coverage, which was within range of our 75% target ratio.

在本季度，由於利率下降和 CPR 上升的預期，我們將 MSR 下調了 4.15 億美元，導致季度末通過 PV 的估值達到 148 個基點，即基礎服務帶的 5.1% 倍。這被 2.89 億美元的對沖收益所抵消，相當於 70% 的覆蓋率，在我們 75% 的目標比率範圍內。

Now if you'll turn to Slide 12, I'll comment on credit quality, which has been focused recently for certain consumer lenders. But you'll see our high-quality mortgage portfolio is performing very consistently with MSR delinquencies up slightly by about 8 basis points to 1.1%. That's extremely strong performance.

現在，如果您翻到投影片 12，我將評論信用質量，這是最近某些消費貸款機構的焦點。但您會發現我們的優質房貸投資組合表現非常一致，MSR 拖欠率小幅上升約 8 個基點，達到 1.1%。這是極其強勁的表現。

The slight increase is being driven by FHA and VA collateral, which is something we've been expecting and planning for and which is why we've limited the FHA and VA to only 18% of our MSR portfolio. Also, we've chosen very high-quality collateral, where customers have low note rates and large equity cushions.

這一小幅成長是由 FHA 和 VA 抵押品推動的，這是我們一直在期待和計劃的事情，也是我們將 FHA 和 VA 限制在我們 MSR 投資組合中僅 18% 的原因。此外，我們選擇了非常高品質的抵押品，客戶可以享受較低的票據利率和大量的股權緩衝。

And the result of our selectiveness is evident in the chart on the lower left, where you can see our Ginnie portfolio is outperforming the industry by a considerable margin. While we don't try to forecast overall consumer credit cycles, we have deep experience managing delinquent books, and if the environment were to turn more adverse, we believe Mr. Cooper and our investors would be extremely well protected.

我們的選擇性結果在左下角的圖表中很明顯，您可以在其中看到我們的吉尼投資組合的表現遠優於行業。雖然我們不會嘗試預測整體消費者信貸週期，但我們在管理拖欠帳款方面擁有豐富的經驗，如果環境變得更加不利，我們相信庫柏先生和我們的投資者將受到極好的保護。

Lastly, turning to Slide 13. I'll update you on our key balance sheet metrics. We ended the fourth quarter with record liquidity of $4.1 billion, up from $3.2 billion in the second quarter, driven by the issuance of $750 million in senior notes as well as $750 million of incremental MSR financing capacity. You'll notice that our unrestricted cash balance has been gradually rising consistent with our internal policy, which sets our liquidity target at a sizable multiple to all regulatory requirements.

最後，轉向投影片 13。我將向您通報我們的關鍵資產負債表指標的最新情況。在發行 7.5 億美元優先票據以及 7.5 億美元增量 MSR 融資能力的推動下，我們第四季末的流動性達到創紀錄的 41 億美元，高於第二季的 32 億美元。您會注意到，我們的不受限制的現金餘額一直在逐漸增加，這符合我們的內部政策，該政策將我們的流動性目標設定為所有監管要求的相當大的倍數。

Other positive liquidity metrics include the fact that nearly all our MSR and advanced lines are now turned out to 2026, and two-third of them are fully committed. Our capital ratio, as measured by tangible net worth to assets ended the quarter at 27.9%, down about 50 basis points from last quarter, but still above our target range of 20% to 25%.

其他積極的流動性指標包括我們幾乎所有 MSR 和高級產品線現已在 2026 年交付，其中三分之二已完全承諾。本季末，我們的資本比率（以有形淨值與資產的比率衡量）為 27.9%，比上季下降約 50 個基點，但仍高於我們 20% 至 25% 的目標範圍。

The gradual pace at which we've deployed our excess capital over the last year speaks to our discipline and stewards of investor capital, as we seek the highest returns available to us in the bulk and correspondent channels while continuing to repurchase shares as well. Now let me remind you that the reason we set a range for our target capital ratio is that the mix of assets on our balance sheet shifts depending on the environment.

去年，我們逐步部署過剩資本，這說明了我們對投資者資本的紀律和管理，因為我們在繼續回購股票的同時，在大宗通路和代理通路中尋求可獲得的最高回報。現在讓我提醒您，我們設定目標資本比率範圍的原因是，我們資產負債表上的資產組合會根據環境而變化。

If we grow our originations business in 2025, as we expect, you will see a higher mix of loans held for sale on the balance sheet. And accordingly, our capital ratio might well move into the middle of our range or even towards the low end. This is because we set higher capital levels for MSRs than we do for loans.

如果我們如我們預期的在 2025 年發展我們的發起業務，您將在資產負債表上看到更高的待售貸款組合。因此，我們的資本比率很可能會進入我們範圍的中間，甚至接近低端。這是因為我們為 MSR 設定的資本水準高於貸款的資本水準。

Regardless of the ratio, unsecured note holders, rating agencies and other stakeholders will continue to benefit from a solid balance sheet, robust cash flows, a disciplined enterprise risk management framework and our industry leadership position.

無論比率如何，無擔保票據持有人、評級機構和其他利害關係人將繼續受益於穩健的資產負債表、強勁的現金流量、嚴格的企業風險管理框架和我們的行業領導地位。

I'll wrap up now by commenting on the outlook. Clearly, this was an exceptional quarter with 16.8% ROTCE. As Mike pointed out, in the fourth quarter, we do expect a slightly lower level of earnings in both servicing and originations, but we continue to anticipate 2025 ROTCE at the midpoint of our 14% to 18% guidance range based on the growing contribution from originations, further operating leverage and servicing and the accretion from the Flagstar Mortgage Banking acquisition.

我現在將透過對前景的評論來結束演講。顯然，這是一個出色的季度，ROTCE 率為 16.8%。正如麥克指出的那樣，在第四季度，我們確實預計服務和起源方面的收入水平會略有下降，但我們仍然預計2025 年ROTCE 將處於我們14% 至18% 指導範圍的中點，因為來自以下領域的貢獻不斷增加起源、進一步的營運槓桿和服務以及收購 Flagstar Mortgage Banking 帶來的增值。

With that, I'd like to thank you for joining us on today's call and for your interest in Mr. Cooper. I'd now like to turn the call back over to Ken for Q&A.

在此，我要感謝您參加今天的電話會議以及您對庫柏先生的興趣。我現在想將電話轉回 Ken 進行問答。

Thanks, Kurt. And Didi, if you could now start the Q&A session, please.

謝謝，庫爾特。滴滴，現在可以開始問答環節了嗎？

(Operator Instructions)

（操作員說明）

Terry Ma of Barclays.

巴克萊銀行的特里·馬。

I think you mentioned the $45 million to $65 million pretax guide for originations in the fourth quarter was kind of the new normalized run rate? Is that right, can you maybe just talk about the drivers there?

我想你提到第四季 4500 萬至 6500 萬美元的稅前發起指南是一種新的標準化運行率？是的，您能談談那裡的司機嗎？

Yes. Thanks, Terry, it's Mike. So that's right, $45 million to $65 million guide. And this has been a challenging quarter to guide for because as recently as the middle of September, we had mortgage rates below 6%, and now they're running over 6.5%. And so as we look ahead, we still see a lot of momentum in our direct-to-consumer business driven by some of the enhancements that we've made.

是的。謝謝，特里，我是麥克。沒錯，指導價為 4500 萬至 6500 萬美元。這是一個具有挑戰性的季度，因為就在 9 月中旬，我們的抵押貸款利率還低於 6%，而現在已經超過 6.5%。因此，展望未來，我們仍然看到在我們所做的一些改進的推動下，我們的直接面向消費者業務有很大的發展勢頭。

We still see a lot of opportunity if rates are higher and there's less opportunity for rate term refinances for cash out and home equity. And just to share with you over 80% of our customers have more than $50,000 of capable equity in their homes and more than 60% have $100,000 plus.

如果利率較高，我們仍然看到很多機會，而且現金和房屋淨值的利率定期再融資的機會較少。與您分享的是，超過 80% 的客戶在其房屋中擁有超過 50,000 美元的淨資產，超過 60% 的客戶擁有超過 100,000 美元的淨資產。

So we see a lot of opportunity regardless of environment. And the guide for this quarter is heavily dependent on what happens with rates, but we feel good about the progress we're making in the business regardless.

因此，無論環境如何，我們都看到很多機會。本季的指南在很大程度上取決於利率的變化，但無論如何，我們對業務的進展感到滿意。

And if you think about it, and we've talked about it a lot, I mean the impact of our balanced business model will certainly kick in, right? If we do see rates stay at this level. Obviously, servicing will benefit significantly. And so that's how we think about it.

如果你想一想，我們已經討論了很多，我的意思是我們平衡的商業模式的影響肯定會發揮作用，對嗎？如果我們確實看到利率維持在這個水平。顯然，服務將顯著受益。這就是我們的想法。

I mean, it's purely a function of what our prepay is going to look like, what's the opportunity set and -- which is why we're guiding to that level. But servicing, again, given the balanced business model would certainly benefit if rates stay at this level.

我的意思是，這純粹是我們的預付款是什麼樣子、機會集是什麼以及——這就是我們引導到這個水平的原因。但考慮到平衡的商業模式，如果費率保持在這個水平，服務肯定會受益。

Got it. That's helpful. I guess is there any color you can provide on what you saw in the quarter within the DTC channel versus maybe expectations? I would have thought in terms of volume increases in the third quarter, DTC might have come in a bit stronger and corresponding a little less strong. Any color you can provide there?

知道了。這很有幫助。我想您是否可以提供有關本季 DTC 管道中所看到的情況與預期的比較的資訊？我原以為就第三季的銷售成長而言，DTC 可能會更強一些，但相應的強度可能會減弱一些。你們那裡可以提供什麼顏色嗎？

Yes, sure. I'll start, and then Jan and Kurt can add on. And it was an interesting quarter. It was almost like 2 halves, beginning the middle of August when rates started to drop. We saw a significant shift towards rate term refinances. And to put that in context, it's what we were seeing in terms of locks was probably 70% to 80% higher than what we were seeing in the period before that, again, with rate term refinance.

是的，當然。我先開始，然後 Jan 和 Kurt 可以補充。這是一個有趣的季度。幾乎就像兩半，從八月中旬開始，利率開始下降。我們看到了利率期限再融資的重大轉變。結合上下文來看，我們在鎖定方面看到的情況可能比我們在之前一段時間內看到的利率期限再融資高出 70% 到 80%。

Purchase held steady, grew slightly, home equity stated relatively consistent through it, cash out refinance stayed relatively consistent to slightly up. within the correspondent business, it was -- it probably had less to do with the rate and more to do with some of the changes we've been making across the business.

購買量維持穩定，略有成長，房屋淨值表現相對穩定，現金再融資保持相對穩定，略有上升。在通訊業務中，它可能與費率關係不大，而更多地與我們在整個業務中所做的一些改變有關。

We feel really good about the growth opportunities we have in the corresponding business as the most efficient, best servicer and being one of the top players in the industry in terms of recapture. We don't see any reason why we shouldn't be a much more significant player in the corresponding business.

我們對我們在相應業務中擁有的成長機會感到非常滿意，因為我們是最高效、最好的服務商，並且是行業中重新奪回領先地位的參與者之一。我們認為我們沒有任何理由不應該在相應的業務中扮演更重要的角色。

We've made changes to our pricing models. We have doubled down on our client relationships. We've made changes to our capital markets execution. And I think you saw that in the quarter, and I think you should expect to see that continue.

我們對定價模型進行了更改。我們加倍努力加強我們的客戶關係。我們對資本市場的執行方式進行了改變。我認為您在本季度看到了這一點，並且我認為您應該期望看到這種情況繼續下去。

Yes. I mean I think a simple way to think about it is when you look at recapture, we're close to 70%, right, which is awesome. And so I think the direct-to-consumer team did a great job, came in kind of in line with where we would expect. And again, as I said earlier, if rates go in a different direction and move down, they'll kill it. And so recapture is core to who we are. We've been doing it for decades, and we would expect great things from that channel. And to Mike's point, on correspondent, look, at the end of the day, we are, we think, the lowest-cost servicer.

是的。我的意思是，我認為一個簡單的思考方式是，當你看到奪回率時，我們接近 70%，對吧，這太棒了。因此，我認為直接面向消費者的團隊做得很好，符合我們的期望。再說一遍，正如我之前所說，如果利率朝不同的方向發展並下降，他們就會扼殺牠。因此，重新奪回是我們的核心。我們已經這樣做了幾十年，我們希望從這個管道中獲得偉大的成果。對於麥克的觀點，在記者看來，歸根究底，我們認為我們是成本最低的服務商。

We think, as I mentioned, we have the best recapture. And so we should be the best buyer of MSRs. So there is massive opportunity in the correspondent channel, and we will take advantage of that. I don't know, Kurt, did you want to add anything or.

正如我所提到的，我們認為我們擁有最好的奪回機會。因此我們應該是 MSR 的最佳買家。因此，通訊管道存在著巨大的機會，我們將利用這個機會。我不知道，庫爾特，你想補充什麼嗎？

I mean I would just add on Mike's comment for correspond and it's true for DTC as well in terms of execution on the capital market side. Jay mentioned our excellent recapture, and we do. And -- but we look also at speeds and investors, and we look holistically at execution, and we need to be cognizant of the speeds that we're generating, particularly around Ginnie Mae securities to maximize our ongoing opportunities there.

我的意思是，我只想補充 Mike 的評論以進行對應，這對 DTC 來說也是如此，在資本市場方面的執行方面也是如此。傑伊提到了我們出色的奪回行動，我們確實這麼做了。而且 - 但我們也會關注速度和投資者，我們會全面關注執行，我們需要認識到我們正在產生的速度，特別是圍繞吉利美證券，以最大限度地利用我們在那裡的持續機會。

It's a great point.

這是一個很好的觀點。

Mark DeVries of Deutsche Bank.

德意志銀行的馬克‧德弗里斯。

I was hoping you could discuss kind of the latest state of the pipeline for bulk servicing acquisitions. There's still anything out there that could really move the needle for you guys? And also, just discuss flexibility you have to do more deals kind of post Flagstar. It looks like you added significant capacity in unused lines during the quarter. So liquidity really shouldn't -- or should remain strong after the deal and your tangible net worth to assets should still be kind of at the high end of your target range. So just could you just discuss opportunity and flexibility in that market?

我希望您能討論一下批量服務收購的最新進展。還有什麼可以真正讓你們感動的嗎？而且，只是討論一下靈活性，你必須在 Flagstar 之後做更多的交易。看來您在本季未使用的線路中增加了大量容量。因此，流動性確實不應該——或者應該在交易後保持強勁，並且您的有形資產淨值與資產之比仍應處於目標範圍的高端。那麼您能否討論一下該市場的機會和靈活性？

Yes. Great question, Mark. I think, look, we announced Flagstar. We feel like we're in a great place. That will close in the fourth quarter. which is obviously a significant bulk acquisition. When you look at the landscape now, I mean, a couple of years ago, we anticipated a disruption.

是的。好問題，馬克。我想，看，我們宣布了 Flagstar。我們感覺我們處在一個很棒的地方。該項目將於第四季結束。這顯然是一筆重大的大宗收購。當你看看現在的情況時，我的意思是，幾年前，我們就預料到會出現混亂。

We acted on that, and we've grown our portfolio almost 75%. So I think the track record kind of speaks for itself. As you think about the landscape today, clearly, as we pointed to in the last call, it has slowed down. I think some of that is just seasonality. We have acquired a couple of small pools, kind of slightly less than $10 billion recently. So there's still activity.

我們採取了行動，我們的投資組合成長了近 75%。所以我認為業績記錄本身就說明了一切。當你思考今天的情況時，顯然，正如我們在上次電話會議中指出的那樣，它已經放緩了。我認為其中一些只是季節性的。我們最近收購了幾個小型資金​​池，金額略低於 100 億美元。所以還是有活動的。

We're going to participate in that activity, and we would expect it to pick up in the first half of next year. And the book market is always going to be there, right? And we are the best buyer of bulk. And so I think we'll be opportunistic and when the returns make sense, we'll play there appropriately.

我們將參加活動，預計明年上半年將會增加。圖書市場永遠都會存在，對嗎？我們是散裝的最佳買家。所以我認為我們會投機取巧，當回報有意義時，我們會適當地發揮作用。

From a capacity standpoint, you get the nail in hand, and we have plenty of capacity. We've been very intentional about increasing our lines, very intentional about having dry powder to act when appropriate. And so we feel great about that. And when you look at our tangible net worth asset ratio, plenty of room there.

從容量的角度來看，你掌握了釘子，我們有足夠的容量。我們一直非常有意識地增加我們的生產線，非常有意識地讓乾粉在適當的時候發揮作用。所以我們對此感覺很好。當你看到我們的有形資產淨值比率時，你會發現那裡還有很大的空間。

That will come down slightly, I think, in the fourth quarter because of Flagstar, but still plenty of room to move and play a room to act. The other thing I would say is when you think about subservicing, we think we're -- there's going to be some wins there as well. And so we're continuing to be excited about that channel. We've partnered with strong financial buyers and strong originators. So that flow will continue. But we expect new clients there, too. So a lot of good things to come, I think, on both fronts.

我認為，由於 Flagstar，第四季度的情況會略有下降，但仍然有足夠的移動空間和發揮空間。我要說的另一件事是，當你考慮輔助服務時，我們認為我們也會在這方面取得一些勝利。因此，我們繼續對該頻道感到興奮。我們與實力雄厚的金融買家和實力雄厚的發起人合作。因此，這種流動將會持續下去。但我們也期待那裡有新客戶。我認為，這兩方面都會有很多好事發生。

Okay. Great. And when I think about kind of your past approach to the correspondent I described it as being a little bit more opportunistic. But am I right in kind of interpreting your comments today, is it seeming like you now feel like you have a real reason to win and maybe a more committed kind of participant in that channel and look to take share longer term?

好的。偉大的。當我想到你過去對記者的態度時，我將其描述為有點機會主義。但我今天對您的評論的解讀是否正確？

100%. I really believe -- I mean, look, we're always going to be very, very good stewards of deploying capital. And so we're going to look at what are the best opportunities in the marketplace. But as we look at our position, again, from a cost of service standpoint, from a retention standpoint, we should be, and I think are the best buyer of MSRs in any channel and corresponding it presents -- we've been in it for years, and we think we can definitely take more share there. We will take more share there, and we think there's opportunities to grow it in a significant way.

100%。我真的相信——我的意思是，看，我們將永遠成為部署資本的非常非常好的管理者。因此，我們將看看市場上最好的機會是什麼。但當我們再次審視我們的立場時，從服務成本的角度、從保留的角度來看，我們應該是，而且我認為我們是任何管道中 MSR 的最佳買家，並且相應地，我們一直在其中多年來，我們認為我們絕對可以在那裡獲得更多份額。我們將在那裡獲得更多份額，並且我們認為有機會大幅成長它。

Eric Hagen with BTIG.

哈根 (Eric Hagen)，來自 BTIG。

When we compare the adjusted EBITDA and the sources and uses of cash flow on the last 2 slides of the deck, what are the key differences maybe between those figures? And which do you feel like is a better reflection of the cash flow that you guys manage the business to?

當我們在最後兩張投影片上比較調整後的 EBITDA 以及現金流的來源和使用時，這些數字之間的主要差異是什麼？您認為哪一個更能反映你們管理業務的現金流？

Eric, it's Kurt. I mean the answer is the sources and uses of cash flow are how we manage our acquisition strategy and share repurchase on a go-forward basis. So the last chart really shows kind of what we're looking at from a true free cash flow perspective after you talk about kind of the recapture and what's available for whether it be correspondent or other acquisitions, bulk acquisitions or share repurchases.

艾瑞克，這是庫爾特。我的意思是，答案是現金流的來源和用途是我們管理收購策略和未來股票回購的方式。因此，最後一張圖表確實顯示了我們從真正的自由現金流角度來看的情況，在您談論了重新奪回的類型以及可用於代理收購或其他收購、批量收購或股票回購之後。

Okay. Got you. That's helpful. One more on cash here. I mean, it looks like the cash flow amortization was $234 million in the quarter. Do you have an estimate for what that number is following the onboarding of Flagstar? Would you say it's like proportional? And is there a good way to benchmark that figure going forward for changes in mortgage rates?

好的。明白你了。這很有幫助。這裡還有一張現金。我的意思是，看起來該季度的現金流攤銷為 2.34 億美元。您對 Flagstar 加入後的數字有估計嗎？你說這像比例嗎？有沒有一個好方法來衡量未來抵押貸款利率變化的數字？

Yes. I mean, we don't give guidance for that, Eric. But yes, I mean, I think proportionately, right, the Flagstar acquisition will probably add, call it, between $50 billion and $70 billion of MSRs against our existing $600-plus billion. And the stratification of the portfolio is about the same as our existing (inaudible) portfolio. So (inaudible) pro rata.

是的。我的意思是，我們不會為此提供指導，埃里克。但是，是的，我的意思是，我認為按比例來說，收購 Flagstar 可能會在我們現有的 600 多億美元的基礎上增加 500 億至 700 億美元的 MSR。投資組合的分層與我們現有的（聽不清楚）投資組合大致相同。所以（聽不清楚）按比例。

Giuliano Bologna with Compass Point.

朱利亞諾·博洛尼亞與羅盤點。

Congratulations on the continued strong performance. As the first question that I'm curious about is you had some pretty incredible operating leverage on the servicing side. Sellers will just benefit from some of the other ones are effectively flat year-over-year while UPBs are 30%. Going forward, I'm curious how much more operating leverage you think you have and how much slower your operating expense base should probably grow versus your due to going forward.

恭喜您持續強勁的表現。我好奇的第一個問題是，你們在服務方面擁有一些相當令人難以置信的營運槓桿。賣家只會受益於其他一些實際上與去年同期持平的價格，而 UPB 為 30%。展望未來，我很好奇您認為自己擁有多少營運槓桿，以及您的營運費用基礎可能比您未來的成長慢多少。

Yes. Thanks, Julian. The short answer is we think we have a lot of continued opportunity. So this isn't a onetime event. It's a result of a continuous strategy of investing and perfecting the platform. And we believe we've really built a scalable servicing platform.

是的。謝謝，朱利安。簡而言之，我們認為我們有很多持續的機會。所以這不是一次性事件。這是持續投資和完善平台策略的結果。我們相信我們確實已經建立了一個可擴展的服務平台。

And the things that we showed you like aginIQ and some of the other investments we're making, we think, are going to allow us to continue to be more efficient, and we expect to continue to grow but to be able to continue to manage expenses as we do it. And so we really see the scale benefits as we're getting larger, our cost per loan to service has been coming down, and we expect that trend to continue.

我們向您展示的諸如 aginIQ 之類的東西以及我們正在進行的一些其他投資，我們認為，將使我們能夠繼續提高效率，我們期望繼續增長，但能夠繼續管理我們這樣做的費用。因此，隨著我們規模的擴大，我們確實看到了規模效益，每筆貸款的服務成本一直在下降，我們預計這種趨勢將持續下去。

And if you think about it, I mean, all the investments that we talked about are we're maniacally focused on the customer experience and certainly focused on driving that cost per loan down. I think Mike had said this on the previous call that if you reduce your handle time by 10 seconds, that's over $1.3 million in savings.

如果你仔細想想，我的意思是，我們談論的所有投資都是我們瘋狂地專注於客戶體驗，當然也專注於降低每筆貸款的成本。我想 Mike 在上次電話會議上說過，如果將處理時間減少 10 秒，就可以節省超過 130 萬美元。

If you reduce your calls by 10% because you're delivering such a great digital experience to the customer, that's over $10 million in savings. And so I think we're in the early innings of this. And Jay Jones, who runs servicing his team are excellent and identifying opportunities. And so -- Yes. I think, Julien, we've got a long ways to go, and we'll continue to drive cost per loan down with a great customer experience.

如果您因為向客戶提供如此出色的數位體驗而將通話次數減少 10%，則可節省超過 1000 萬美元。所以我認為我們正處於早期階段。為他的團隊提供服務的傑伊瓊斯（Jay Jones）非常出色，並且善於發現機會。所以——是的。Julien，我認為我們還有很長的路要走，我們將繼續透過良好的客戶體驗降低每筆貸款的成本。

And just to connect the final dot on what Jay said. So what we're showing with the way we're deploying AI technology in servicing and frankly, we plan to do the same thing in our originations business. But for the servicing example, when our customer service team is taking a call, you can see how the AI is now pulling information forward that they'd otherwise have to go look for.

只是為了將最後一點與傑伊所說的話聯繫起來。因此，我們展示了在服務中部署人工智慧技術的方式，坦白說，我們計劃在我們的起源業務中做同樣的事情。但對於服務範例，當我們的客戶服務團隊接聽電話時，您可以看到人工智慧現在如何向前拉取他們原本必須尋找的資訊。

And if an average call is 10 minutes, we think there's probably two to three minutes that are spent looking for information to be able to help deliver a great experience to the customer. We think we're going to be able to deliver a better experience by having it faster, but just connect the dots to what Jay said in terms of what 10 seconds of time saved on a call is in terms of dollars. And if you can save two to three minutes, it really starts to make an impact.

如果平均通話時間為 10 分鐘，我們認為可能需要花費兩到三分鐘來查找訊息，以幫助為客戶提供良好的體驗。我們認為，我們將能夠透過更快的速度來提供更好的體驗，但只需將這些點與 Jay 所說的通話節省 10 秒的時間（以美元計算）聯繫起來即可。如果你能節省兩到三分鐘，它就會真正開始產生影響。

That's very helpful. I appreciate that. And then thinking about on the origination side, maybe a bit more focused on DTC. But from a processing perspective, most of in process the same amount of seconds versus cash out refis in any given period. I'm curious if how impactful it is to switch volume from second liens that might have this higher gain-on-sale ratio, but switching that volume to more cash-out refi or rate-term refi where the dollar balance is probably 4x the size, how much incremental value that can help you back up or earnings are that can help to pick up over the next few quarters?

這非常有幫助。我很欣賞這一點。然後考慮起源方面，也許更關注 DTC。但從處理的角度來看，在任何給定時期內，大多數處理時間與兌現金額相同。我很好奇，將交易量從可能具有更高銷售收益比率的第二留置權轉換為有多大影響，但將該交易量轉換為更多現金再融資或利率期限再融資，其中美元餘額可能是4倍規模、可以幫助您備份的增量價值有多少，或者可以幫助您在未來幾季回升的收益？

Yes. I mean I think you hit the nail on the head, right? Our rate term refi margins are a little bit lower than our cash out refi margins. And certainly, our second lien margins are pretty tremendous. And I think Mike can speak to it, but the team does a really tremendous job from a marketing perspective. Obviously, any customer that calls us, we're going to do their loan, right?

是的。我的意思是，我認為你擊中要害了，對吧？我們的利率期限再融資利潤率略低於我們的現金再融資利潤率。當然，我們的第二留置權利潤相當巨大。我認為麥克可以談論這一點，但從行銷的角度來看，該團隊做得非常出色。顯然，任何打電話給我們的客戶，我們都會為他們提供貸款，對嗎？

But from a marketing perspective, being able to pivot on a dime based on where rates are to really drive kind of the volumes that we want to see between those three different products, depending on where the rates are. And Mike talked about the number of customers who are -- who have $50,000, $100,000 plus of capital equity. Rates have backed up 60 basis points since the end of the quarter. And with that, our strategy is pivoted and our rate lock volume remains really, really strong.

但從行銷的角度來看，能夠根據費率的情況進行細微調整，才能真正推動我們希望在這三種不同產品之間看到的銷量，具體取決於費率的情況。麥克談到了擁有 50,000 美元、100,000 美元以上資本資產的客戶數量。自本季末以來，利率已上漲 60 個基點。至此，我們的策略發生了轉變，我們的利率鎖定量仍然非常非常強勁。

Yes. And I'll just add, if you think about -- when we talk to a customer, we're just trying to help them find the best product to meet their needs. Sometimes that's a rate term refinance sometimes it's a cash out refi, sometimes it's a second. And so we're going to do whatever is best for the customer, and that will change depending on the interest rate environment.

是的。我只想補充一點，如果你想一想，當我們與客戶交談時，我們只是試圖幫助他們找到滿足他們需求的最佳產品。有時這是利率期限再融資，有時是現金再融資，有時是第二次。因此，我們將採取對客戶最有利的措施，這將根據利率環境而變化。

The thing that I think is exciting about our direct-to-consumer business is during this very difficult last couple of years for the industry where it was very difficult to be profitable in the business. We were still profitable. We continually have been investing in the platform.

我認為我們的直接面向消費者業務令人興奮的是在過去幾年該行業非常困難的時期，該業務很難盈利。我們仍然獲利。我們一直在對該平台進行投資。

And those -- that combined with more and more of the originations being done at higher rates, and we've shown our customers are 6% plus has created a bit of a coiling spring in the DTC business. And what we saw for a brief period in the third quarter, when rates came down is that we're able to react very quickly and it had a very meaningful impact on our profitability.

這些——再加上越來越多的原創以更高的速度完成，我們已經向我們的客戶展示了 6% 以上，這在 DTC 業務中創造了一些螺旋彈簧。我們在第三季的短時間內看到，當利率下降時，我們能夠非常迅速地做出反應，這對我們的獲利能力產生了非常有意義的影響。

And rates are back up a little bit right now. And so we might see more cash out in seconds than rate term. And so we're guiding a little bit lower for this quarter, but still higher than what we were earning at the last time we were at those levels. We have more portfolio growth that's coming, particularly when we closed Magstar acquisition.

現在利率有所回升。因此，我們可能會在幾秒鐘內看到比利率期限更多的現金。因此，我們對本季的指導稍低一些，但仍高於我們上次處於這些水平時的收入。我們即將迎來更多的投資組合成長，特別是當我們完成對 Magstar 的收購後。

And we've been steadily building capacity throughout the year in anticipation of this. So I think what the third quarter showed is we can move really quickly and it's very profitable when we do so. And as we look to next year, we're not in predictions on rates, I think other than that, it will fluctuate.

為此，我們全年都在穩步建立能力。因此，我認為第三季表明我們可以非常迅速地採取行動，而且這樣做會帶來非常豐厚的利潤。當我們展望明年時，我們不會預測利率，我認為除此之外，利率還會波動。

And we'll be prepared regardless of what happens with rates to make sure we're doing the right things for our customers. and our balanced business model and make sure that we're delivering good returns for our shareholders.

無論費率發生什麼變化，我們都會做好準備，以確保我們為客戶做正確的事情。以及我們平衡的商業模式，並確保我們為股東帶來良好的回報。

That's very helpful. And then hopefully, a much quicker and simpler question because I thought the color a little bit on my side. When you talk about the guidance numbers for servicing originations, do those include any impact from Flagstar? And then as a little bit of a love I'm curious to know if there are any -- if you have the expectations, closing later or sooner in the fourth quarter for the Flagstar transacting.

這非常有幫助。希望這是一個更快、更簡單的問題，因為我認為顏色有點偏向我這邊。當您談論服務來源的指導數字時，這些數字是否包括 Flagstar 的影響？然後，出於一點愛，我很好奇是否有任何 - 如果你有期望，在第四季度晚些時候或早些時候結束 Flagstar 交易。

So Julian, great question. Yes, thanks. The guidance does include the impact of Flagstar -- and we do anticipate that it will close earlier in the fourth quarter than later. But obviously, we're just guiding to the fourth quarter close.

朱利安，好問題。是的，謝謝。該指導確實包括 Flagstar 的影響——我們確實預計它會在第四季度提前結束。但顯然，我們只是指導第四季結束。

Bose George with KBW.

博斯·喬治與 KBW。

Just wanted to go back to the correspondent versus bulk discussion. I mean in terms of your market share in correspondent, is it fair to say it's likely to remain at the levels you do this quarter or even potentially improve as the bulk opportunity has largely played out, I guess, is that what you're suggesting?

只是想回到通訊員與批量討論。我的意思是，就您在通訊員中的市場份額而言，可以公平地說，它可能會保持在本季度的水平，甚至可能會有所改善，因為大量機會已基本發揮出來，我想，這就是您的建議？

No, I don't think the bulk opportunity has played out, Bose. I think you've been doing this a long time, and we have 2. So we -- I think there'll be plenty of opportunities to participate in the bulk market going forward. But that will have a play as we've seen over the past. I think on the correspondent, No. I think we will be able to grow that beyond what you saw in this past quarter, and that would be our intention.

不，我認為大部分機會還沒發揮出來，Bose。我認為您已經這樣做很長時間了，我們有 2 個。因此，我認為未來將有很多機會參與散裝市場。但這將會發揮作用，正如我們過去所看到的。我想對記者來說，沒有。我認為我們將能夠將其發展超出您在上個季度所看到的水平，這就是我們的意圖。

I mean, again, when you look at it, I would say, number one, the capital deployment, we're always going to be very disciplined. So we'll look at where the best opportunity is. But -- we believe the correspondent franchise that we've built is very strong. We like the returns in that channel. And we expect to grow it beyond what you saw in this previous quarter. And so we're very bullish on the opportunity there. So we think that we will grow it significantly beyond where it was in this past quarter.

我的意思是，當你再次審視它時，我會說，第一，資本部署，我們總是會非常自律。因此，我們將看看最好的機會在哪裡。但是－我們相信我們建立的通訊特許經營權非常強大。我們喜歡該頻道的回報。我們預計其成長將超出上一季的水平。因此，我們非常看好那裡的機會。因此，我們認為我們的成長將顯著超過上個季度的水平。

Okay. Great. And then actually, just a little question on the corporate expense line item. But I couldn't recall was there some onetime last quarter and this is the $72 million this quarter more of a normalized run rate?

好的。偉大的。實際上，只是關於公司費用項目的一個小問題。但我不記得上個季度是否有過一次，而本季的 7,200 萬美元更像是正常運作率？

Bose, it's Kurt. So I think it's $53 million, not $72 million versus $39 million last quarter. And yes, you're correct. So onetime -- there was a little bit of onetime benefit last quarter, call it, to the tune of $2 million or $3 million, but we do anticipate that in Q4, it will go down back to sort of the $40 million level in run rate that it had been before. There were a few onetime costs that came through this quarter as well.

博斯，我是庫爾特。所以我認為這是 5300 萬美元，而不是 7200 萬美元，而上個季度是 3900 萬美元。是的，你是對的。所以，上個季度有一點一次性的好處，可以說是 200 萬美元或 300 萬美元，但我們確實預計在第四季度，它會回落到 4000 萬美元左右的水平。本季也產生了一些一次性成本。

Eric Hagen with BTIG.

哈根 (Eric Hagen)，來自 BTIG。

I actually want to ask about the Ginnie Mae capital rules. How you see the market responding when those take effect? I mean I imagine you guys are well capitalized relative to the standards, but do you think the implementation of those rules could catalyze bulk servicing trades or MSR valuations to be disrupted or now anyway?

我其實想問一下吉利美的資本規則。當這些措施生效時，您認為市場有何反應？我的意思是，我想你們相對於標準來說資本充足，但你們認為這些規則的實施是否會促進大宗服務交易或 MSR 估值被擾亂，或者無論如何？

Eric, it's Kurt. It's a good question. Yes, I mean, the Ginnie Mae risk-based capital rules came out almost two years ago now. And yes, we've been following and monitoring closely. We're extremely well capitalized based on kind of all the guidance and we stay sort of closely in tune with Jenny in terms of any kind of changes that they plan on making to those guidelines, will be a catalyst for more MSR sales look potentially.

艾瑞克，這是庫爾特。這是一個好問題。是的，我的意思是，吉利美基於風險的資本規則大約在兩年前出台。是的，我們一直在密切關注和監控。根據所有指導方針，我們的資本非常充足，並且我們與 Jenny 保持著密切的一致，他們計劃對這些指導方針做出任何改變，這將成為更多 MSR 銷售的潛在催化劑。

I mean, I think that Jenny themselves said that there were two or three based on their calculations that were undercapitalized two to three servicers, I think we've seen one public that had indicated that they were as well. So yes, maybe we'll drive some Ginnie Mae bulk sales, and we actually have seen Ginnie Mae activity, which has been really, really modest actually in terms of bulk sales. We've seen a little bit more activity in the Ginnie space as the year has progressed.

我的意思是，我認為珍妮自己說過，根據他們的計算，有兩到三個服務商資本不足，我想我們已經看到一位公眾表示他們也是如此。所以，是的，也許我們會推動一些吉利美的大量銷售，我們實際上已經看到了吉利美的活動，就批量銷售而言，實際上非常非常溫和。隨著時間的推移，我們看到吉利領域的活動增加。

Crispin Love with Piper Sandler.

克里斯平·愛與派珀·桑德勒。

Just with your 14% to 18% ROTCE target for 2025, can you just speak to some of your assumptions what could get you to the higher end of that range. In the prepared remarks, you mentioned the origination segment making a bigger impact in 2025. And servicing has been in that 80%-plus range of pretax and is expected to be in the fourth quarter as well. So just curious what kind of level would you expect that to be in 2025 to get to the higher end of that range or even a above that as originations make a bigger impact.

就 2025 年 14% 到 18% 的 ROTCE 目標而言，您能否談談您的一些假設，哪些因素可以讓您達到該範圍的高端。在準備好的發言中，您提到了創始部分將在 2025 年產生更大的影響。服務費用已達到稅前 80% 以上的範圍，預計第四季也將完成。因此，我只是好奇，您預計 2025 年會達到什麼樣的水平才能達到該範圍的高端，甚至更高，因為起源會產生更大的影響。

Yes, good question. I think that the answer is we've said we're very comfortable in the middle of the range already. And so I think going up into the higher end of that range, there are a lot of things that could catalyze that. I think originations and kind of periodic episodes like we had in August and September where originations volumes go up because their borrowers that are in the money, I think, could help drive that.

是的，好問題。我認為答案是我們已經說過我們已經在範圍的中間非常舒服了。所以我認為，在這個範圍的高端，有很多事情可以催化這一點。我認為，像我們在八月和九月那樣的周期性事件，發起量會上升，因為我認為，他們的借款人有錢，可以幫助推動這一點。

I think that more -- sorry, more subservicing volumes, which Jay talked about earlier, we've got a healthy pipeline of subservicing. And keep in mind, subservicing does not deploy any capital for us. So it's true fee-based income. I think that could catalyze and drive earnings up into the higher end of the range.

我認為，抱歉，傑伊之前談到的更多的服務量，我們已經有了健康的服務管道。請記住，服務不會為我們部署任何資本。所以這是真正的收費收入。我認為這可能會催化並推動盈利達到區間的高端。

And then candidly, if rates stay high and speeds come down and the Fed is not as aggressive as maybe a lot of people think they're going to be, and we don't have the 6 rate cuts that could drive us into the higher end of the range. So we think that there are a lot of opportunities to drive us into the higher end of the range and really not much that would drive us down in the lower end of the range.

然後坦白說，如果利率保持在高位而速度下降，而聯準會並不像許多人想像的那樣激進，而且我們沒有 6 次降息，這可能會推動我們進入更高的水平範圍的末端。因此，我們認為有很多機會讓我們進入該範圍的高端，而實際上沒有太多機會讓我們進入該範圍的低端。

And I'd just add -- I agree with everything Curt said. And just to remind everybody, we came into the year introducing this 14% to 18% range through this year, we'll probably operate at the 15% level. And we've seen momentum. We have like a little bit the wind at the back of our balanced business model with everything that we've done this year.

我想補充一點——我同意柯特所說的一切。只是提醒大家，我們今年引入了 14% 至 18% 的範圍，到今年我們可能會在 15% 的水平上運作。我們已經看到了勢頭。我們今年所做的一切，平衡的商業模式為我們帶來了一些支持。

And so this quarter ended up a little bit higher because the size of the originations market and the fact that we recognize revenue at the point of lock. But again, like I think if you take a step back, we feel comfortable that regardless of where the rate environment is, our balanced business model is going to allow us to operate in the middle point of that range.

因此，由於發起市場的規模以及我們在鎖定點確認收入的事實，本季的業績最終略有上升。但同樣，我認為如果你退後一步，我們會感到放心，無論利率環境如何，我們平衡的商業模式都將允許我們在該範圍的中間點運作。

And given where we trade as a multiple of book and a multiple of earnings, generating mid-teens ROE off of the balance sheet parts of our business. As Kurt mentioned, we have a number of capital-light fee-based revenue streams from subservicing, special servicing and some of our other businesses and the opportunity that's there on the origination business we're excited as we look ahead to next year.

考慮到我們以帳面倍數和收益倍數進行交易，我們業務的資產負債表部分產生了十幾歲左右的淨資產收益率。正如庫爾特所提到的，我們有許多來自服務、特殊服務和其他一些業務的輕資本收費收入流，以及我們對明年的起源業務中存在的機會感到興奮。

Great. I appreciate all that color. Definitely makes sense. And then just digging a little bit deeper on recapture. Can you discuss your positioning in this cycle compared to prior cycles. You mentioned technology, AI and other areas? And do you expect these areas to drive higher or maintain your current recapture rates are you seeing that already? Just a little more color on what you're doing on the tech side for recapture would be great.

偉大的。我很欣賞所有這些顏色。絕對有道理。然後就重新捕獲進行更深入的挖掘。您能否討論一下與先前的周期相比，您在本週期中的定位？您提到科技、人工智慧和其他領域嗎？您是否預期這些領域會推動更高的收復率或維持目前的收復率？只要在技術方面為重新奪回所做的事情多一點色彩就太好了。

Yes. I think, look, we're 100%. I think that we're going to do better. I mean when you look at the investments we've made from a process standpoint, it's delivering a better customer experience. We're confident in our cycle times. We are carrying additional capacity now kind of as we speak and continue -- and plan to continue to do that.

是的。我想，看，我們是 100%。我認為我們會做得更好。我的意思是，當你從流程的角度來看我們所做的投資時，你會發現它提供了更好的客戶體驗。我們對我們的周期時間充滿信心。當我們講話和繼續講話時，我們現在正在承載額外的能力，並計劃繼續這樣做。

I think that's going to contribute to consistent if not higher recapture then candidly, when you look at our analytical capability, the marketing capability, the models that we've built around propensity, I mean all those have just gotten better over time. We've got a super talented team there.

我認為，坦白說，當你看看我們的分析能力、行銷能力、我們圍繞傾向建立的模型時，這將有助於保持一致，甚至更高的重新捕獲率，我的意思是，隨著時間的推移，所有這些都變得更好。我們那裡有一支超級有才華的團隊。

And so -- when we look -- and we're looking at this at a customer level in scoring at a customer level. And so we feel very good and very confident that we'll be able to maintain and grow recapture in really any cycle. And it's going to be dependent on what the customer ultimately. What's the best thing for the customer. but the investments we've made are definitely going to drive better results

因此，當我們觀察時，我們會在客戶層面進行評分。因此，我們感覺非常好，並且非常有信心，我們將能夠在任何週期中保持和增加收復失地。這將取決於客戶最終的需求。對客戶來說什麼是最好的。但我們所做的投資肯定會帶來更好的結果

I'm showing no further questions in the queue at this time. I would now like to turn the call over to Mr. Jay Bray for any closing remarks.

目前我在隊列中沒有顯示任何其他問題。我現在想將電話轉交給傑伊·布雷先生，請他發表結束語。

We really appreciate everybody joining us and look forward to further conversations. Thank you.

我們非常感謝大家加入我們，並期待進一步的對話。謝謝。

This concludes today's program. Thank you all for participating. You may now disconnect.

今天的節目到此結束。感謝大家的參與。您現在可以斷開連線。