Mr Cooper Group Inc (COOP) 2024 Q4 法說會逐字稿

Good morning. Welcome to Mr. Cooper Group Fourth Quarter 2024 Earnings Conference Call. (Operator Instructions) Please be advised that today's conference is being recorded.

早安.歡迎參加 Cooper 先生集團 2024 年第四季財報電話會議。（操作員指示）請注意，今天的會議正在錄音。

I would now like to hand the conference over to Mr. Cooper Group.

現在我想將會議移交給庫柏·格普林斯先生。

Good morning, and welcome to Mr. Cooper Group's Fourth Quarter Earnings Call. My name is Ken Posner, and I'm SVP of Strategic Planning and Investor Relations. With me today are Jay Bray, Chairman and CEO; Mike Weinbach, President; and Kurt Johnson, Executive Vice President and CFO.

早上好，歡迎參加 Cooper 集團第四季財報電話會議。我叫肯波斯納 (Ken Posner)，擔任策略規劃與投資人關係資深副總裁。今天與我在一起的有董事長兼執行長傑伊·布雷 (Jay Bray)；總裁 Mike Weinbach以及執行副總裁兼財務長 Kurt Johnson。

As a reminder, this call is being recorded. You can find the slides on our Investor Relations web page at investors.mrcoopergroup.com.

提醒一下，本次通話正在錄音。您可以在我們的投資者關係網頁 investor.mrcoopergroup.com 上找到該投影片。

During the call, we may refer to non-GAAP measures, which are reconciled to GAAP results in the appendix to the slide deck. Also, we may make forward-looking statements, which you should understand could be affected by risk factors that we've identified in our 10-K and other SEC filings. We are not undertaking any commitment to update these statements if conditions change.

在通話過程中，我們可能會參考非 GAAP 指標，這些指標與幻燈片附錄中的 GAAP 結果進行了協調。此外，我們可能會做出前瞻性陳述，您應該理解這些陳述可能會受到我們在 10-K 和其他 SEC 文件中確定的風險因素的影響。如果情況發生變化，我們不承諾更新這些聲明。

I'll now turn the call over to Jay.

現在我將電話轉給傑伊。

Good morning, everyone, and thank you for joining our call. Let's start on slide 3 with a review of fourth quarter results. I'll summarize, pretax operating income was $235 million. Operating ROTCE was 15.8%. Tangible book value grew 12% year-over-year to $71.61 per share. And our capital ratio was 24.4%. And liquidity was $3.4 billion.

大家早安，感謝大家參加我們的電話會議。讓我們從幻燈片三開始回顧第四季的業績。我總結一下，稅前營業收入為 2.35 億美元。營運 ROTCE 為 15.8%。有形帳面價值年增 12% 至每股 71.61 美元。我們的資本比率為24.4%。流動資金為34億美元。

I'm exceptionally pleased with these results. These numbers demonstrate consistent, predictable performance. And what's especially notable is we delivered these results by closing on the acquisition of Flagstar's mortgage banking operations and onboarding 1.1 million customers. This is by far the largest acquisition in our history and one of the largest customer transfers in the history of the mortgage industry.

我對這些結果非常滿意。這些數字體現了一致、可預測的表現。尤其值得注意的是，我們透過完成對 Flagstar 抵押貸款銀行業務的收購併吸收 110 萬客戶實現了這些成果。這是迄今為止我們歷史上最大的收購，也是抵押貸款行業歷史上最大的客戶轉移之一。

Drilling down into segments, Servicing generated $318 million in pretax income, up 39% year-over-year. Given the low level of prepayments, we project strong cash flows from our portfolio continuing throughout 2025 and long thereafter.

深入到各部門，服務業務創造了 3.18 億美元的稅前收入，年增 39%。鑑於預付款水準較低，我們預計我們的投資組合將在 2025 年及之後很長一段時間內持續保持強勁的現金流。

Originations remained resilient despite the sharp sell-off in December, generating $47 million in EBT. Funded volumes grew 38% sequentially, significantly outpacing the market, reflecting very strong execution in the correspondent channel. Thanks to the hard work of our correspondent team and the trust of our clients, we have climbed into a top 5 market share position. As I mentioned on our last call, our cost structure and retention make us the best buyer of MSRs in all channels.

儘管 12 月出現大幅拋售，但債券發行仍保持強勁，產生了 4,700 萬美元的息稅前利潤。融資量較上季成長 38%，大幅超過市場成長，反映出代理通路的強勁執行力。憑藉我們通訊員團隊的辛勤工作和客戶的信任，我們的市場份額已躋身前五名。正如我在上次電話會議中提到的，我們的成本結構和保留使我們成為所有管道中 MSR 的最佳買家。

I'd like to comment on some other positives in the quarter. We proudly won the SHARP Gold Award, which is Freddie Mac's highest recognition for servicers. This award reflects our commitment to quality, risk management and performance. Additionally, we helped several of our subservicing partners achieve goal level recognition through the strong performance we delivered on their portfolios.

我想評論一下本季度的一些其他積極因素。我們很榮幸榮獲 SHARP 金獎，這是房地美對服務商的最高認可。該獎項體現了我們對品質、風險管理和績效的承諾。此外，我們也透過其投資組合中表現出的強勁表現，幫助我們的幾家次級服務合作夥伴獲得了目標級認可。

Our master servicing business received an upgrade from Fitch to a 1 minus rating, which is a huge third-party endorsement. Master servicing is a business which oversees the performance of other mortgage servicers on behalf of securitization and whole loan investors. By providing high-tech solutions and exceptional personal service, our team has earned and sustained the number 2 position in the market. I'll add that master servicing generates valuable fee income. Mike will share some comments on how fee income is becoming a meaningful part of our revenue story.

我們的主要服務業務獲得惠譽升級至1-評級，這是一個巨大的第三方認可。主服務是代表證券化和整個貸款投資者監督其他抵押貸款服務商的表現的業務。透過提供高科技解決方案和卓越的個人化服務，我們的團隊贏得並維持了市場第二的地位。我要補充的是，主服務可以產生寶貴的費用收入。麥克將分享一些關於費用收入如何成為我們收入故事中的重要組成部分的評論。

Finally, we were pleased to see Moody's place our corporate rating on positive outlook. They commented on the growing strength and scale of our franchise, our strong return on assets and solid liquidity, and they cited our hedge program as a credit positive.

最後，我們很高興看到穆迪對我們的公司評級給予正面展望。他們對我們的特許經營權不斷增長的實力和規模、強勁的資產回報率和穩健的流動性發表了評論，並認為我們的對沖計劃對信貸有利。

Fourth quarter capped an amazing year for Mr. Cooper. And if you'll turn to slide 4, you'll see that 2024 was the culmination of a three-year journey. As we all remember, 2022 ended with one of the most severe interest rate shocks on record, with the Fed tightening by 425 basis points and mortgage rates more than doubling. This shot created significant turmoil in the industry. We've responded with swift and decisive action to reorient our platforms and our nimble execution put us in a position to anticipate new opportunities.

對庫柏先生來說，第四季是輝煌的一年。如果你翻到第 4 張投影片，你會看到 2024 年是三年旅程的頂點。我們都記得，2022 年以有史以來最嚴重的利率衝擊之一結束，聯準會升息 425 個基點，抵押貸款利率上漲了一倍多。此舉在業界引起了不小的震動。我們迅速果斷地採取行動，重新調整我們的平台，靈活的執行讓我們預見新的機會。

If you go back to our fourth quarter 2022 investor presentation, you'll see a slide entitled, Expecting Cycle Wide Opportunities for MSR Acquisitions, with a chart projecting a steep increase in MSR sales peaking in 2024. On the call, we explained how originators had bulked up on MSRs, and we're now facing a serious margin squeeze. And we point into strategic divestitures and the ongoing exit of banks as contributing to a supply/demand imbalance. That was a good call and the results speak for themselves.

如果您回顧我們 2022 年第四季度的投資者演示，您會看到一張幻燈片，題為“預期 MSR 收購的周期性機會”，其中的一張圖表預測 MSR 銷售額將大幅增長，並在 2024 年達到峰值。在電話會議中，我們解釋了發起人如何在 MSR 上擴張，而我們現在面臨嚴重的利潤擠壓。我們指出，策略性資產剝離和銀行的持續退出導致了供需失衡。這是一次正確的決定，結果不言而喻。

Over the last two years, we've acquired $440 billion of MSRs at cycle wide OAS spreads, including the Home Point and Flagstar transactions and many other pools. Today, our portfolio stands at $1.5 trillion, representing the loans of over 6 million customers, making us the largest servicer in the US by a significant margin. In fact, we are more than 50% larger than number 2. We also took over the lead in subservicing.

在過去的兩年裡，我們以週期範圍內的 OAS 利差收購了 4,400 億美元的 MSR，其中包括 Home Point 和 Flagstar 交易以及許多其他資金池。如今，我們的投資組合規模達 1.5 兆美元，涵蓋 600 多萬客戶的貸款，這使我們成為美國最大的貸款服務商，並且遙遙領先於其他貸款服務商。事實上，我們比第二名規模大 50% 以上。我們也在分服務領域佔據領先地位。

Our sizable scale and technology advantage has allowed us to generate positive operating leverage and rising returns on tangible equity. What those results don't show you, however, is the momentum we're now experiencing, the talent and enthusiasm of our people, the promise of our technology and the depth of our competitive moat.

我們龐大的規模和技術優勢使我們能夠產生積極的經營槓桿並提高有形資產的回報率。然而，這些結果並沒有向你展示我們目前正在經歷的勢頭、我們員工的才華和熱情、我們技術的前景以及我們競爭優勢的深度。

Now turning to slide 5, let me wrap up with some high-level thoughts on the outlook. Given our momentum, we're increasing our ROTCE guidance range to 16% to 20% for '25 and '26, which is higher than our previous guidance of 14% to 18%. Although we are not immune to macro shifts, we have built a balanced model that is resilient in the face of interest rate volatility, and we're also well positioned to manage through a more adverse cycle.

現在翻到第 5 張投影片，讓我總結一下對前景的一些高層想法。鑑於我們的發展勢頭，我們將 2025 年和 2026 年的 ROTCE 指導範圍提高至 16% 至 20%，高於我們之前的 14% 至 18% 的指導。雖然我們無法免受宏觀變化的影響，但我們已經建立了一個平衡的模型，該模型在利率波動的情況下具有彈性，並且我們也有能力度過更為不利的週期。

Let's talk about what's driving our confidence in the outlook. Investing in our culture is a huge focus for us. Mr. Cooper has been certified as a Great Place to Work for six years in a row, and we see the tangible results of our high trust culture and record low turnover. A couple of weeks ago, we held a two-day off-site for the company's senior leaders, and the energy was incredible.

讓我們來談談是什麼讓我們對前景充滿信心。投資我們的文化是我們的一大重點。Cooper 先生已連續六年被認證為最佳工作場所，我們看到了高度信任的文化和創紀錄的低流動率所帶來的實際成果。幾週前，我們為公司高層領導舉辦了為期兩天的場外活動，氣氛非常熱烈。

In recent years, we've made tremendous progress improving the customer experience. But today, new technology is creating a whole new frontier of opportunities to delight and add value. We're exploring several new value propositions for our customers, some of which we plan to implement this year.

近年來，我們在改善客戶體驗方面取得了巨大進步。但今天，新技術正在創造令人愉悅和增值的全新機會。我們正在為客戶探索幾項新的價值主張，其中一些我們計劃今年實施。

AI is changing the world and it may well be that one of the best applications for large language models is in the call center environment. Mike will update you on our Agent IQ rollout, which is generating rave reviews from our team members. And I'll just add that with our Sagent relationship, we are light years ahead of peers on the journey to the cloud and true real-time, anytime processing.

人工智慧正在改變世界，大型語言模型的最佳應用之一可能就是在呼叫中心環境中。Mike 將向您介紹我們的 Agent IQ 推出的最新情況，該產品得到了我們團隊成員的熱烈好評。我還要補充一點，憑藉與 Sagent 的合作關係，我們在雲端運算和真正的即時、隨時處理的道路上已經領先於同行數光年。

To summarize, our strategic direction over the next two years, I'd remind you of the key drivers, which you've seen us deliver on consistently. First, we will stay laser-focused on unit costs leveraging our lead in technology. Second, we'll keep investing in our origination platforms, both DTC and correspondent to generate higher volumes and gain market share. Third, we'll grow fee revenues by winning new clients for subservicing, master servicing and our other services businesses, and by winning a larger share of wallet. And finally, we'll continue to analyze the market for acquisitions in a thoughtful and disciplined manner, looking for opportunities to create value.

總而言之，關於未來兩年的策略方向，我想提醒大家注意一些關鍵驅動因素，你們已經看到我們一直持續實現這些目標。首先，我們將利用我們的技術領先優勢，專注於單位成本。其次，我們將繼續投資我們的發起平台，包括DTC和代理平台，以產生更高的交易量並獲得市場份額。第三，我們將透過贏得次級服務、主服務和其他服務業務的新客戶以及贏得更大的份額來增加費用收入。最後，我們將繼續以深思熟慮和嚴謹的方式分析收購市場，尋找創造價值的機會。

And with that, I'll turn the call over to our President, Mike Weinbach, to take you through our operating results.

接下來，我將把電話轉給我們的總裁 Mike Weinbach，向你們介紹我們的經營績效。

Thanks, Jay, and good morning, everyone. I'd like to start by reviewing the Servicing segment on slide 6. We reported pretax income of $318 million, which is up 39% year-over-year, reflecting a favorable environment with low prepayment speeds and strong credit as well as the rapid growth in our portfolio and the operating leverage that resulted.

謝謝，傑伊，大家早安。我想先回顧一下第 6 張投影片上的服務部分。我們報告的稅前收入為 3.18 億美元，比去年同期增長 39%，這反映了預付款速度低、信貸強勁的有利環境，以及我們投資組合的快速增長和由此產生的經營槓桿。

Turning to the portfolio. The Flagstar acquisition drove a substantial increase in scale. On the owned side, we acquired $59 billion in UPB, which is net of $18 billion we sold to subservicing clients with whom we have strategic relationships. With these sales, we were able to keep the incremental scale benefits by retaining the subservicing while providing a unique value-added opportunity to our clients.

轉向投資組合。收購Flagstar推動了規模的大幅提升。在自有資產方面，我們收購了 UPB 價值 590 億美元的股份，這是扣除我們出售給與我們有策略關係的次級服務客戶的 180 億美元後的淨額。透過這些銷售，我們能夠透過保留次級服務來保持增量規模效益，同時為我們的客戶提供獨特的增值機會。

Our ability to arrange these kinds of transactions is a distinct competitive advantage as is the quality of our platform as reflected in the Freddie SHARP Gold Recognition for us and our clients that Jay mentioned.

我們安排此類交易的能力是我們獨特的競爭優勢，我們的平台品質也是如此，正如 Jay 提到的 Freddie SHARP 黃金對我們和我們的客戶的認可所反映的那樣。

In terms of the outlook, we're excited about the growth opportunities we're seeing in 2025. Market yields for MSRs have returned to normal levels, and there's plenty of competition, but we continue to see growth opportunities in correspondent and co-issue within our return targets. Also, we've started the new year with a small pipeline in bulk, which is now growing a little. And if originator profit margins remain under pressure, we'd expect to see rising activity levels throughout the year.

從展望來看，我們對 2025 年的成長機會感到非常興奮。MSR 的市場收益率已恢復到正常水平，競爭也十分激烈，但我們仍然看到，在我們的回報目標範圍內，代理行和聯合發行仍有成長機會。此外，我們在新的一年已經開始了小批量生產，現在產量正在逐漸增加。如果發起人的利潤率持續承受壓力，我們預計全年活動水準將會上升。

In terms of subservicing, the last year has been transformative. We've doubled in size, become the market leader in terms of share and has become the majority of our servicing book. There are a lot of factors contributing to our growth. Of course, the Flagstar transaction was a significant driver, and you can see this added $275 billion of UPB in the fourth quarter. This will decline slightly in Q1 when all of the Flagstar transfers are completed as the transaction contemplated some of the loans moving to other servicers.

在次級服務方面，過去的一年發生了變革。我們的規模擴大了一倍，在份額方面成為市場領導者，並且已成為我們服務客戶的主要部分。有很多因素促進了我們的成長。當然，Flagstar 交易是一個重要的推動力，你可以看到這筆交易在第四季度增加了 2,750 億美元的 UPB。由於交易考慮到將部分貸款轉移到其他服務商，當所有 Flagstar 轉移完成後，第一季這一數字將略有下降。

Another driver of growth is new clients, and we were pleased to welcome new partners in 2024 and are in talks to add additional partners in 2025. But what we're most proud of is the organic growth in this business. Simply put, our clients are winning. By leveraging our best-in-class Servicing platform, they can focus on what they do best and whether that's asset management, retail originations or banking, they're growing faster than the industry overall, which is driving our joint growth.

另一個成長動力是新客戶，我們很高興在 2024 年迎來了新的合作夥伴，並正在商談在 2025 年增加更多合作夥伴。但我們最自豪的是該業務的有機成長。簡而言之，我們的客戶正在獲勝。透過利用我們一流的服務平台，他們可以專注於自己最擅長的領域，無論是資產管理、零售發起或銀行業務，他們的成長速度都快於整個產業，從而推動了我們的共同成長。

Turning to earnings. At current mortgage rates, the outlook is very strong through 2025 and well beyond as we continue to drive operating leverage in this business. For first quarter, we guide you to a range of $315 million to $335 million of EBT.

談到收益。按照目前的抵押貸款利率，隨著我們繼續提高該業務的營運槓桿，到 2025 年及以後的前景都非常強勁。對於第一季度，我們預計息稅前利潤將在 3.15 億美元至 3.35 億美元之間。

If you'll turn to slide 7, I'd like to give you an update on Agent IQ, which you'll recall we talked about last quarter. Agent IQ is what's called an agentic framework application that's designed to assist our call center team members by analyzing conversations in real time. Agent IQ helps detect customer intent and sentiment trends, providing insights to support agents in delivering better service. We've trained the model on millions of customer calls, and this allows us to fetch relevant information and put it at the agent's fingertips, including suggestions for next steps, and of course, it generates a transcript and call summary, all of which is in compliance with applicable privacy laws and our responsible AI policy.

如果您翻到第 7 張投影片，我想向您提供有關 Agent IQ 的最新信息，您會記得我們上個季度討論過這個問題。Agent IQ 是一種代理框架應用程序，旨在透過即時分析對話來協助我們的呼叫中心團隊成員。Agent IQ 有助於偵測客戶意圖和情緒趨勢，提供見解以支援代理商提供更好的服務。我們已經透過數百萬個客戶電話對該模型進行了訓練，這使我們能夠獲取相關資訊並將其提供給代理，包括後續步驟的建議，當然，它還會產生記錄和通話摘要，所有這些都符合適用的隱私法和我們負責任的人工智慧政策。

We piloted Agent IQ in the fourth quarter, and today, it's fully rolled out in the servicing call center, where it's now analyzing 400,000 calls per month, and we're getting very enthusiastic reviews from our team members, including both newer agents and veterans. Our customers benefit from improved experience with quick, clear answers to their questions and a higher percentage of questions resolved on the first call.

我們在第四季度試用了 Agent IQ，如今，它已在服務呼叫中心全面推廣，現在每月分析 40 萬個呼叫，我們的團隊成員（包括新代理商和資深代理商）都對它給予了非常熱烈的評價。我們的客戶從更好的體驗中受益，他們的問題得到了快速、清晰的答复，並且第一次通話中解決問題的比例更高。

Agent IQ is also a powerful tool for management. For example, we now get automated summaries of topical issues in the call center, and we can drill down into specific issues with the click of a mouse, all the way down to individual calls. This improves our compliance and quality control functions where we can now get automated summaries on individual customer engagement and cast a wider net with much higher sampling rates. Most important, this tool will accelerate our ongoing mission to identify customer priorities and develop better processes to assist them. And this may surprise you, but from the conceptualization of this tool to the full deployment, took less than a year. We have a very robust tech stack, excellent data standards and a supremely talented team of technologists. We plan to roll out the Agent IQ our originations team members a little later this year as soon as we complete a telephony upgrade.

Agent IQ 也是一個強大的管理工具。例如，我們現在可以自動獲得呼叫中心熱門問題的摘要，並且只需單擊滑鼠即可深入了解特定問題，直至單一呼叫。這提高了我們的合規性和品質控制功能，現在我們可以自動獲得有關個人客戶參與度的摘要，並以更高的採樣率撒下更廣泛的網絡。最重要的是，該工具將加速我們正在進行的使命，即確定客戶的優先事項並開發更好的流程來幫助他們。這可能會讓您感到驚訝，但從這個工具的概念化到全面部署，只花了不到一年的時間。我們擁有非常強大的技術堆疊、出色的數據標準和一支極具天賦的技術團隊。我們計劃在今年稍後完成電話升級後立即向我們的發起團隊成員推出 Agent IQ。

So now let's move on to slide 8 and talk about Originations, where we generated $47 million in EBT, consistent with the rise in mortgage rates during the quarter. I'd echo Jay that the highlight this quarter was continued incredible execution by our correspondent team who generated a 48% sequential increase in production following a very big third quarter. Thanks to their efforts. Mr. Cooper is now a top 5 correspondent lender, which marks a significant improvement in share from a year ago when we weren't even in the top 10.

現在我們進入第 8 張幻燈片，討論 Originations，我們產生了 4700 萬美元的 EBT，與本季抵押貸款利率的上升一致。我同意傑伊的觀點，本季度的亮點是我們的通訊團隊繼續出色的執行力，在第三季度取得巨大成功之後，產量連續增長了 48%。感謝他們的努力。庫柏先生現在是前五名代理貸款人之一，這與一年前相比有顯著的份額提升，當時我們甚至還沒有進入前十名。

As our efforts to reduce servicing costs improved our bids, we shifted energy to a series of enhancements to our platform. These included upgrading our pricing models, building out a new client portal, revamping our capital market strategies and relentlessly reviewing our relationship with every existing client and prospect. The Flagstar acquisition also expanded our network of customers, particularly with banks and credit unions. The results speak for themselves, and I'll add that we're happy with our margins as well.

隨著我們努力降低服務成本並提高我們的出價，我們將精力轉向對我們平台的一系列改進。這些包括升級我們的定價模型，建立新的客戶門戶，修改我們的資本市場策略，並堅持不懈地審查我們與每個現有客戶和潛在客戶的關係。收購 Flagstar 也擴大了我們的客戶網絡，尤其是銀行和信用合作社。結果不言而喻，我想補充一點，我們對我們的利潤率也很滿意。

Turning to slide 9, let's focus on DTC, where volumes were up 16% quarter-over-quarter as we funded loans locked during the brief rally in third quarter. Just to put this in context of customer benefits, during the quarter, we helped nearly 2,000 customers lower their monthly payments, over 8,500 access equity in their homes and over 1,400 purchased new homes. It's a company we feel great about delivering that kind of value to our customers.

轉到幻燈片 9，讓我們關注 DTC，由於我們為第三季度短暫上漲期間鎖定的貸款提供資金，其交易量環比增長了 16%。僅從客戶利益的角度來看，在本季度，我們幫助近 2,000 名客戶降低了每月還款額，超過 8,500 名客戶獲得了房屋淨值，超過 1,400 名客戶購買了新房。我們很高興能夠為我們的客戶提供這樣的價值。

Now you'll notice we had an atypical move in our refinance recapture rate, which dropped to 35%. And what's driving this is the impact of a single large portfolio with an unusual profile that we acquired last year. Specifically, it was an at-the-money deal, and we knew the originators would solicit their customers aggressively. We priced the deal for limited recapture, and we included contractual safeguards to protect us against early payouts. While this didn't result in a material impact to our MSR value, it did impact the recapture ratio. Excluding this portfolio, our refi recapture would have been 53% which is consistent with what we would expect, given the heavier volumes of rate and term refinances in the quarter.

現在您會注意到我們的再融資回收率出現了異常走勢，下降至 35%。而推動這一結果的是我們去年收購的一個具有不同尋常特徵的大型投資組合的影響。具體來說，這是一筆平價交易，我們知道發起人會積極招攬他們的客戶。我們為該交易設定了有限的回收價格，並在合約中加入了保障措施以防止提前付款。雖然這不會對我們的 MSR 值造成重大影響，但確實影響了回收率。除此投資組合外，我們的再融資回收率將達到 53%，這與我們的預期一致，因為本季的利率和期限再融資量較大。

Looking ahead, given the current level of mortgage rates, we guide you to $30 million to $50 million in first quarter EBT and potential upside later in the year, driven by the growth in our servicing portfolio combined with our focus on enhancing the customer experience. For some perspective, 20% of our customers have note rates of 6% or higher, which means we're well positioned to capitalize on rallies, even if they're brief, just as you saw in the third quarter.

展望未來，鑑於目前的抵押貸款利率水平，我們預計第一季的息稅前利潤將達到 3,000 萬至 5,000 萬美元，並且在今年晚些時候可能出現上漲，這得益於我們服務組合的增長以及我們對提升客戶體驗的關注。從某個角度來看，我們 20% 的客戶的票據利率為 6% 或更高，這意味著我們完全有能力利用反彈，即使這種反彈很短暫，就像您在第三季度看到的那樣。

Home equity is another growth driver. And here, the numbers are pretty interesting. 94% of our customers have at least 20% equity, and our average customer has nearly 50%. This equates in theory to $675 billion in equity, which our customers could access should they want or need to monetize this value. Even in a higher for longer scenario, cash out refinances and home equity loans should be a steady recurring source of business for us and value for our customers.

房屋淨值是另一個成長動力。這裡的數字非常有趣。我們94％的客戶擁有至少20％的股權，而我們的平均客戶擁有近50％的股權。從理論上講，這相當於 6,750 億美元的股權，如果我們的客戶想要或需要將其價值貨幣化，他們就可以使用這筆股權。即使在較長時期內利率較高的情況下，現金再融資和房屋淨值貸款也應該成為我們穩定的業務來源並為我們的客戶帶來價值。

The last thing I'd like to cover is to share a little more information about the composition of our revenues related to Jay's comments about the growing importance of fee income coming from subservicing, master servicing and other client-related businesses.

最後我想談的是，與傑伊關於來自次級服務、主服務和其他客戶相關業務的費用收入日益重要性的評論有關，分享一些有關我們收入構成的更多信息。

If you'll turn to slide 10, you can see the percentage contribution of owned servicing, originations and fee income to our total revenue. Fee income is generated by a number of businesses, the biggest of which is our market-leading subservicing platform, but other client service-related businesses contribute fees as well, including master servicing, special servicing, partnership and technology solutions in Xome. For 2024 in total, the service-related fee revenues totaled $500 million, which made up more than 20% of our total revenue, and this revenue stream has been growing at a double-digit pace for the last three years. Importantly, these businesses do not require any material capital or liquidity contributing to our growing return on tangible common equity.

如果您翻到第 10 張投影片，您可以看到自有服務、發起和費用收入對我們總收入的百分比貢獻。費用收入來自多項業務，其中最大的收入是我們市場領先的子服務平台，但其他客戶服務相關業務也貢獻費用，包括Xome的主服務、特殊服務、合作夥伴關係和技術解決方案。截至 2024 年，服務相關費用收入總計 5 億美元，占我們總收入的 20% 以上，並且過去三年來這一收入來源一直以兩位數的速度增長。重要的是，這些業務不需要任何物質資本或流動性來促進我們有形普通股權益的報酬率不斷成長。

With that, I'll hand it over to Kurt.

說完這些，我就把它交給庫爾特。

Thanks, Mike, and good morning. I'll start on slide 11 with a brief recap of our financials. To summarize, net income was $204 million, which included a positive $92 million mark net of hedge, $235 million in pretax operating earnings and adjustments of $39 million. Let me unpack those adjustments.

謝謝，麥克，早安。我將從第 11 張投影片開始簡短回顧我們的財務狀況。總結一下，淨收入為 2.04 億美元，其中包括 9,200 萬美元的對沖淨額、2.35 億美元的稅前營業收入和 3,900 萬美元的調整額。讓我來解釋一下這些調整。

First, there's a $22 million charge for facility shutdown costs. Given our home-centric model, we significantly reduced our need for office space in the Dallas area, and we were able to negotiate very favorable terms to exit two large leases, which should provide us with meaningful savings going forward and funds to invest in renovating our headquarters, which will contribute to a more vibrant experience when we come together to collaborate and celebrate.

首先，要收取 2,200 萬美元的設施關閉費用。鑑於我們以家庭為中心的模式，我們大大減少了對達拉斯地區辦公空間的需求，並且我們能夠協商非常優惠的條款來退出兩份大型租約，這將為我們未來帶來有意義的節約，並為投資翻新總部提供資金，這將有助於在我們聚在一起合作和慶祝時獲得更加充滿活力的體驗。

Second, we accrued $18 million in connection with the court ruling and a lawsuit associated with the legacy business. Third, there was a positive $9 million reserve release related to the Home Point acquisition. Then there were a few smaller miscellaneous charges.

其次，我們因法院判決和與遺留業務相關的訴訟而損失了 1800 萬美元。第三，與 Home Point 收購相關的積極儲備金釋放為 900 萬美元。然後還有一些較小的雜費。

In terms of the overall operating results, Mike covered Originations and Servicing, and I would draw your attention to the Corporate segment, which incurred $51 million in expenses. Included in this number are some year-end incentive accruals, stock vesting and a small technology write-off, and Xome was a slightly larger drag this quarter.

就整體經營績效而言，麥克負責了發起和服務業務，我想提請大家關注企業部門，該部門的費用為 5,100 萬美元。這個數字包括一些年終激勵應計項目、股票歸屬和少量技術註銷，而 Xome 在本季度的拖累作用稍大一些。

For the first quarter, we anticipate corporate expenses remaining at this level due to the timing of annual stock compensation before settling down to a more normalized run rate of $40 million to $45 million in the second quarter.

對於第一季度，我們預計公司費用將保持在這個水平，因為年度股票薪酬的時間安排，然後在第二季度穩定在 4000 萬至 4500 萬美元的更正常化的運行率。

Turning to the mark-to-market line. We marked up the MSR to reflect rising interest rates and expectations for lower CPRs, leading to a quarter end valuation of 159 basis points of UPB or 5.5 multiple of the base servicing strip. Offsetting this gain were $581 million in hedge losses, which equates to 85% coverage, somewhat above our 75% target. We're extremely pleased with the hedges performance, which over the last seven quarters, has tracked the target fairly closely and contributed to stable and predictable results.

轉向市價線。我們提高了 MSR 的標價，以反映利率上升和 CPR 下降的預期，導致季度末估值為 UPB 的 159 個基點或基本服務條的 5.5 倍。抵銷這項收益的是 5.81 億美元的對沖損失，相當於 85% 的覆蓋率，略高於我們 75% 的目標。我們對對沖表現感到非常滿意，在過去七個季度中，對沖表現一直非常接近目標，並帶來了穩定和可預測的結果。

Now if you'll turn to slide 12, I'll comment briefly on credit. Our high-quality mortgage portfolio continued to perform extremely well, with MSR delinquencies up slightly by 11 basis points to 1.2%, a level that remains quite strong compared to peer and industry metrics. Low delinquencies reflect our thoughtful portfolio construction, which you can see in the rising FICO scores and declining LTV ratios for our customers as well as our ongoing loss mitigation efforts, evident in a 47% year-over-year increase in loan modifications and workouts, which is a very important part of our mission to keep the dream of homeownership alive.

現在請翻到第 12 張投影片，我將簡單評論一下信用問題。我們的優質抵押貸款組合繼續表現優異，MSR 拖欠率小幅上升 11 個基點至 1.2%，與同行和行業指標相比，這一水平仍然相當強勁。低拖欠率反映了我們周到的投資組合構建，您可以從我們客戶的 FICO 分數上升和 LTV 比率下降中看到這一點，以及我們正在進行的損失緩解努力，貸款修改和重組同比增長 47% 就是明證，這是我們讓擁有住房的夢想得以實現的使命中非常重要的一部分。

We keep a close eye on Ginnie Mae delinquency trends, and we've noticed a small, but consistent deterioration in industry-wide performance across all product types and vintages, which is especially notable for loans which have already gone through modifications. You can see this trend in our Ginnie Mae delinquencies, too. But I would note that this portfolio has grown by less than 4% in the past year, and today represents only 19% of our total loan portfolio, and thus is not a material exposure.

我們密切關注吉利美 (Ginnie Mae) 的拖欠趨勢，我們注意到，所有產品類型和年份的行業表現都出現了小幅但持續的惡化，對於已經經過修改的貸款來說尤其明顯。你也可以在我們的吉利美 (Ginnie Mae) 拖欠債務情況中看到這種趨勢。但我要指出的是，這項投資組合在過去一年的成長率不到4％，目前僅占我們總貸款投資組合的19％，因此並不構成重大風險。

Now turning to slide 13. Let me update you on our key balance sheet metrics. We ended the fourth quarter with liquidity of $3.4 billion, which is down from the $4.1 billion in the third quarter as we utilized MSR lines to fund the acquisition of $1.3 billion in assets from Flagstar, which principally consisted of mortgage servicing rights. Liquidity consisted of $753 million in unrestricted cash, with the remaining in MSR line capacity, which is fully collateralized and immediately available.

現在翻到第 13 張投影片。讓我向您介紹我們的主要資產負債表指標。在第四季結束時，我們的流動資金為 34 億美元，低於第三季的 41 億美元，因為我們利用 MSR 額度為從 Flagstar 收購 13 億美元資產提供資金，該資產主要包括抵押貸款服務權。流動資金包括 7.53 億美元的無限制現金，剩餘資金為 MSR 線路容量，這些資金已全額抵押並可立即使用。

Our capital ratio, as measured by tangible net worth to assets, ended the fourth quarter at 24.4%, down from 27.9%, reflecting the increase in both MSR assets and higher loans held for sale due to strong correspondent growth. We are now operating comfortably within our target range, the level that we believe is appropriate for the current environment and mix of assets on our balance sheet. On a final note, I'll comment that the 16% to 20% ROTCE range that Jay mentioned earlier is not reliant on expanding leverage or decreasing our robust liquidity.

我們的資本比率（以有形淨值與資產之比衡量）在第四季度末為 24.4%，低於 27.9%，這反映了 MSR 資產的增加以及由於強勁的對應增長而導致的持有待售貸款的增加。目前，我們的營運狀況在目標範圍內平穩運行，我們認為該水準適合當前環境和資產負債表上的資產組合。最後要說的是，傑伊之前提到的 16% 到 20% 的 ROTCE 範圍並不依賴擴大槓桿或減少我們強勁的流動性。

Thanks for listening to our report. And I'll now turn the call back to Ken for Q&A.

感謝您收聽我們的報告。現在我將電話轉回給肯進行問答。

Thanks, Kurt. And Marvin, could you now start the Q&A process?

謝謝，庫爾特。馬文，現在可以開始問答環節嗎？

(Operator Instructions) Terry Ma, Barclays.

(操作員指示) 巴克萊銀行的 Terry Ma。

Maybe just starting with the revised ROE target range. You touched on it a little bit. But can you maybe just talk about the drivers that could get you to 20%? How much of the high end is actually kind of rate dependent? Or can you kind of hit that target even if we were to stay in this rate environment?

或許只是從修改後的 ROE 目標範圍開始。您稍微觸及了這一點。但是您能否談談能夠讓您達到 20% 的驅動因素？高端產品中有多少實際上與利率有關？或者即使我們維持這種利率環境，你能否達到這個目標？

Terry, it's Kurt. Thanks for the question. I think we've touched on that a couple of times before, and I think Mike can go into it a little bit. But the services segment that we called out this quarter generates, obviously, fee-based income, which can generate a higher ROTCE, again, given that it's asset light in nature and equity light in nature. That, and we've set originations as you saw in Q3, if we have a better originations environment, that's essentially fee-based income as well and so that could drive us to the higher end of the ROTCE. But the higher for longer environment works well for us, and we think we're going to be within that range regardless of what the rate environment looks like.

特里，我是庫爾特。謝謝你的提問。我想我們之前已經討論過這個問題幾次了，我想麥克可以稍微詳細講一下。但我們本季提到的服務部門顯然會產生基於費用的收入，這可以產生更高的ROTCE，同樣，考慮到其本質上是輕資產和輕股權的。正如您在第三季看到的那樣，我們已經設定了發起，如果我們擁有更好的發起環境，那麼這基本上也是基於費用的收入，因此這可以推動我們達到 ROTCE 的更高端。但長期較高的環境對我們來說是有利的，而且我們認為，無論利率環境如何，我們都將處於這個範圍內。

I would just say, I would add operating leverage to that. I mean if you think about the power of the organization. We added $440 billion of servicing in the last couple of years, and I think we added less than 20 people. So just wrap your head around that. It's pretty incredible. It's a great job by Jay Jones and his team. And candidly, we think we're in the middle innings of that. We think there's tremendous leverage, tremendous cost and a better customer experience, and we're focused on that every day. So I think that's going to be a key driver as well.

我只想說，我會在此基礎上增加經營槓桿。我的意思是如果你考慮一下組織的力量。我們在過去幾年中增加了 4400 億美元的服務，但我想我們增加的員工不到 20 人。所以，你只要理解這一點就好了。這真是令人難以置信。傑伊瓊斯和他的團隊做得很好。坦白說，我們認為我們正處於這個階段的中間階段。我們認為這具有巨大的槓桿作用、巨大的成本和更好的客戶體驗，我們每天都專注於此。所以我認為這也將成為關鍵驅動因素。

The last thing I'll just add is it's execution, it's not interest rates. So we're -- we feel really good about the balanced business model we can deliver on the return targets regardless of what's happening in terms of the interest rate environment, and we have a lot of momentum in just about every part of our business. So we've seen significant growth in our B2B origination as we talked about the huge increase in correspondent, seeing growth in our direct-to-consumer business.

我最後要補充的是，這是執行問題，而不是利率問題。因此，我們對平衡的商業模式感到非常滿意，無論利率環境如何，我們都能實現回報目標，而且我們業務的幾乎每個部分都擁有很大的發展動力。因此，我們看到 B2B 業務的顯著成長，正如我們談到通訊員的大幅增加一樣，我們看到直接面向消費者的業務也在成長。

And we highlighted the home equity opportunity, which we think is quite significant. And as Jay mentioned, we continue to execute on servicing, and there's validation, whether it's the Freddie SHARP Awards where we were super proud not just to win gold in the large servicer category, but to see clients for whom we subservice win gold in the medium and smaller servicer categories. So a clean sweep of the gold.

我們強調了房屋淨值機會，我們認為這非常重要。正如傑伊所提到的，我們將繼續致力於服務，並且得到了認可，無論是 Freddie SHARP 獎，我們不僅為在大型服務商類別中獲得金獎而感到自豪，而且看到我們為其提供服務的客戶在中型和小型服務商類別中獲得金獎。從而徹底包辦了金牌。

So we're going to continue to focus on execution, keep the momentum. And if we do it well, we could be in the higher end of the range, and that's what we're working hard to do every day.

因此，我們將繼續專注於執行，保持勢頭。如果我們做得好，我們就可以進入更高的範圍，這就是我們每天努力做的事情。

Got it. And then maybe just a follow-up on the services fee revenue. I'm just curious, can you kind of sustain that double-digit growth for that revenue stream going forward?

知道了。然後可能只是跟進服務費收入。我只是好奇，您能否在未來維持該收入流的兩位數成長？

And then maybe just longer term, what's the steady state mix of services revenue that you're kind of targeting if there is a target? I mean that's a higher multiple earnings stream in my view. So I would imagine you would want to maximize that somewhat.

那麼也許從長期來看，如果有目標的話，您所針對的服務收入的穩定狀態組合是什麼？我的意思是，在我看來，這是一個更高的多重獲利來源。因此我想你會希望將其最大化。

Yes. I mean I think what we're most proud of with our fee-based revenue that we showed, and we do often refer to it as services, is it's essentially taking all of the things that we're really good at and making it available to the rest of the industry. And we showed it to you as a percentage of overall revenue. And you asked about that. But as we've talked about, there's some volatility in other parts of our revenue stream. You can see how big originations was in '21 and '22 and how much of that changed over '23 and '24, but the services revenue stream is quite steady and shouldn't have that level of volatility.

是的。我的意思是，我認為我們對所展示的收費收入最為自豪，我們經常將其稱為服務，因為它本質上是將我們真正擅長的所有東西都提供給業內其他人。我們將其作為總收入的百分比向您展示。你問到了這個問題。但正如我們所討論的，我們的收入流的其他部分存在一些波動。您可以看到'21年和'22年的起源規模有多大，以及'23年和'24年發生了多大的變化，但服務收入流相當穩定，不應該出現這種程度的波動。

So it's -- we think there's enormous opportunity to do more for the clients that we already work with. And there's a number of new clients that we're in discussions with to continue to grow that business. So I guess, a long way of saying, yes, we do think we can sustain the growth in that business and see a lot of opportunity with it. And we agree with you. It's these businesses and other companies tend to attract a higher multiple than the high single-digit multiple forward earnings that we have today.

所以，我們認為，我們有巨大的機會為已經合作的客戶做更多的事情。我們正在與許多新客戶進行洽談，以繼續發展業務。所以我想，長話短說，是的，我們確實認為我們可以維持該業務的成長，並從中看到很多機會。我們也同意你的看法。這些企業和其他公司的預期本益比往往會高於我們現在的個位數。

Mark DeVries, Deutsche Bank.

德意志銀行的馬克‧德弗里斯 (Mark DeVries)。

Can you just talk about the pipeline for bulk MSR and the whole platform sales here? I mean it seems like while you're now within the range on your tangible net worth assets, you still have a lot of capital flexibility. So just want to get a sense of how you're sizing up the opportunity set there and also as well, kind of what the returns look like? Are they still kind of accretive to that 16% to 20% range you've kind of targeted for the next two years?

您能談談批量 MSR 和整個平台銷售的管道嗎？我的意思是，雖然您現在的有形淨值資產處於該範圍內，但您仍然擁有很大的資本靈活性。所以只是想了解您如何評估那裡的機會，以及回報是什麼樣的？它們是否仍會增值到您所設定的未來兩年 16% 到 20% 的範圍？

Yes. I think the bulk market, as Kurt mentioned, is coming back and certainly at attractive levels. And if you think about -- if we're in a higher for longer environment, I think that will certainly help the bulk market because you're going to see more originators that are going to need to sell. So we think that's going to grow throughout the year, and we are starting to see certainly more activity there.

是的。我認為，正如庫爾特所提到的，大宗市場正在復蘇，而且肯定達到了具有吸引力的水平。如果你仔細想想——如果我們長期處於更高的環境中，我認為這肯定會對大宗市場有所幫助，因為你會看到更多需要出售的發起人。因此我們認為這一數字將在全年增長，而且我們肯定會開始看到那裡出現更多的活動。

And I think from an acquisition standpoint, in my view, I still fundamentally believe there's going to be consolidation in our industry. And you've seen us be very selective and very disciplined in looking at those opportunities. But I'm pretty bullish that there's going to be opportunities that are going to be attractive. And so I think, again, consolidation will continue, and we will be a part of that.

我認為，從收購的角度來看，我仍然從根本上相信我們的產業將會出現整合。你已經看到我們在尋找這些機會時非常有選擇性並且非常自律。但我非常樂觀地認為，將會存在有吸引力的機會。因此，我認為整合將會持續，我們也將成為其中的一部分。

And in terms of the returns, I mean I think we're still seeing -- they may not be the cycle best returns that we saw a couple of years ago, but there's still solid risk-adjusted returns. Our hedging has held up really well. And so we do think into that 16% to 20% range, as we're acquiring, and we've always said we're not going to chase yields, we'll be very disciplined about our purchases and we continue to be that way.

就回報而言，我的意思是我認為我們仍然看到 - 它們可能不是幾年前我們看到的周期最佳回報，但仍然有穩健的風險調整回報。我們的對沖效果確實很好。因此，在收購過程中，我們確實考慮了 16% 到 20% 的範圍，而且我們一直說我們不會追求收益，我們會非常嚴格地進行收購，而且我們會繼續這樣做。

Okay. Great. As you pointed out in the presentation, your special servicing business and digital real estate auction marketplace give you kind of a nice countercyclical revenue stream. Are you still thinking about potentially monetizing Xome if the revenue picture improves? Or do you just kind of like it now? Is that kind of countercyclical hedge?

好的。偉大的。正如您在演示中指出的那樣，您的特殊服務業務和數位房地產拍賣市場為您帶來了良好的逆週期收入來源。如果收入狀況好轉，您是否仍考慮將 Xome 貨幣化？或者你現在只是有點喜歡它？那是一種逆週期對沖嗎？

No. I think we -- look, Xome's done a great job at the end of the -- and we've made investments there. We've increased our market share. As the market turns, to your point, it is going to be a very valuable asset.

不。我認為我們 — — 看，Xome 在最後做了非常出色的工作 — — 而且我們在那裡進行了投資。我們增加了市場佔有率。隨著市場轉變，正如您所說，它將成為非常寶貴的資產。

I think ultimately, we do think some sort of monetization makes sense for all or part of it, just to be able to capture all of our business as we've discussed, et cetera, et cetera. So I don't think strategically, our thoughts have shifted around them. We like the business. We're going to be patient. We'll get the right value for it. But at some point, we will extract some value there.

我認為最終我們確實認為某種形式的貨幣化對於全部或部分而言是有意義的，只是為了能夠捕獲我們已經討論過的所有業務等等。因此我認為，從戰略上來說，我們的想法並沒有改變。我們喜歡這個生意。我們會保持耐心。我們將獲得其正確的價值。但在某些時候，我們會從中提取一些價值。

Crispin Love, Piper Sandler.

克里斯賓·洛夫，派珀·桑德勒。

First on servicing expenses, you continue to drive efficiencies and improvements there. Expenses were at 5.3 bps of the servicing portfolio. As you look forward, do you believe that you can continue to drive that 5.3 bps lower through scale, tech, AI and other areas? Or is there a period where you expect that to flatten over time?

首先在服務費用方面，您繼續推動該方面的效率和改進。費用佔服務組合的5.3個基點。展望未來，您是否相信可以透過規模、技術、人工智慧和其他領域繼續推動 5.3 個基點的降幅？或者您預期隨著時間的推移，這一趨勢會逐漸趨於平穩？

No. Look, I think as I said, and Mike, please jump in. But I think, as I said earlier, we really believe we're in the middle innings of what's possible there. I mean if you look at our '25 and '26 investments, they are AI centric. They are process-centric where we're going to continue to be able to drive cost out. And Flash allow us to grow and continue to grow in a very scalable way. So we think there's a lot of opportunity there and we're making investments as we speak.

不。瞧，我想正如我所說的，麥克，請加入吧。但我認為，正如我之前所說，我們確實相信我們正處於可能實現的中期階段。我的意思是，如果你看看我們 25 年和 26 年的投資，它們都是以人工智慧為中心的。它們以流程為中心，我們將繼續努力降低成本。Flash 讓我們能夠以非常可擴展的方式成長，並繼續成長。因此我們認為那裡有很多機會，我們正在進行投資。

Yes. And I'll just add. The level of investments that we're making in technology is increasing. And we feel more comfortable investing more because the team has executed so well. And so all the things you mentioned, scale, continued investment, just relentlessly waking up every day, thinking about how we can do things better for our customers, how we can let customers do things for themselves that they want, how we can make our team members who serve our customers more effective. It's all those little things that are adding up to the improvements we're seeing, and we're bullish on the opportunities ahead of us.

是的。我再補充一下。我們在技術方面的投資水準正在不斷增加。由於團隊表現非常出色，我們更願意投入更多資金。所以你提到的所有事情，規模，持續的投資，每天醒來，堅持不懈地思考如何為我們的客戶做得更好，如何讓客戶自己做他們想做的事情，如何讓我們為客戶服務的團隊成員更有效率。正是這些小事加在一起才形成了我們所看到的進步，我們對未來的機會充滿信心。

Great. I appreciate that. And then following up on the new ROTCE guide. Last quarter, you said you were very comfortable at the midpoint of the prior guide, which would have been about 16%. Would you say you're comfortable on hitting the midpoint of the new guide for 2025? Or should it be upward sloping over the next two years and, of course, being rate dependent. And just curious on what you view as some of the major changes from three months ago to today just driving that guide?

偉大的。我很感激。然後跟進新的 ROTCE 指南。上個季度，您說您對先前指南的中點非常滿意，這個數字約為 16%。您是否認為您可以放心達到 2025 年新指南的中點？或者未來兩年內應該呈現上升趨勢，當然，這取決於利率。我只是好奇，您認為從三個月前到今天推動該指南的一些重大變化是什麼？

Yes, it's a great question. So I mean I think we've said that we're 16% to 20% for the two years. That doesn't mean that every quarter is going to be at the midpoint or above or potentially even at the low point. But we're comfortable in the 16% to 20%.

是的，這是一個很好的問題。所以我的意思是，我認為我們已經說過，這兩年的成長率是 16% 到 20%。這並不意味著每個季度都會處於中點或以上，甚至可能處於低點。但我們對 16% 到 20% 的比例比較滿意。

I think what you're seeing is we're adding that incremental business from a services perspective. We're driving that incremental scale from an operational efficiency perspective and we're just going to continue to work on that day after day after day. It's what we've done, it's what we're good at. And I think you'll see that ROTCE sort of climb over the course of the two years as a result of all of that.

我想您看到的是，我們正在從服務角度增加增量業務。我們從營運效率的角度推動這一增量規模，並且我們將日復一日地繼續努力。這就是我們所做的事情，也是我們擅長的事情。我認為，由於所有這些因素的影響，你會看到 ROTCE 在兩年內會上升。

Doug Harter, UBS.

瑞銀的道格·哈特（Doug Harter）。

Can you talk about your capacity in the Origination business and the ability to kind of maintain recapture rates if and when we see the next refi opportunity?

您能否談談您在發起業務方面的能力，以及當我們看到下一個再融資機會時維持回收率的能力？

Yes. As we've talked about in -- through most of 2024, we kept a little bit of a buffer capacity to be able to handle expected dips in rates. And we saw in September when rates dropped, we were in position to be able to capitalize on it and saw a nice increase in our rate term refi originations and our earnings. And as rates have risen and the rate term opportunity has become much smaller, we again have excess capacity, and we're working hard to fill it.

是的。正如我們在 2024 年的大部分時間裡所討論的那樣，我們保留了一點緩衝能力，以便能夠應對預期的利率下降。我們看到，9月份利率下降時，我們能夠利用它，並且我們的利率期限再融資發起和收益都出現了大幅增長。隨著利率上升以及利率期限機會變得越來越小，我們再次出現了產能過剩的情況，我們正在努力填補這一空缺。

The big opportunity that we see, and we saw it in the quarter and we're already seeing it in the early part of the first quarter is with home equity. The majority of our portfolio, our customers still have rates below 4%. And as home values have increased, the amount of equity in their home has grown with it. So for customers that are carrying credit card debt, they want to do home renovations. They want to consolidate other debt.

我們看到的巨大機會是房屋淨值，我們在本季度看到了它，並且在第一季初就已經看到了它。我們投資組合中的大多數客戶利率仍低於4%。隨著房屋價值的上漲，房屋淨值也隨之增加。因此對於背負信用卡債務的客戶來說，他們想要進行房屋裝修。他們想要合併其他債務。

Home equity represents a great opportunity. And we've grown -- this is a product that we launched two years ago, and it's grown steadily since launch. But if we look at where we are, we're still -- the majority of our customers that are getting home equity loans, they're still getting away from us. So we see enormous opportunity to help our customers and we're making investments and enhancements in the products every day and it's becoming an increasing share of what we're doing, and we feel confident that we'll be able to fill the capacity with new products that meet our customers' needs. And we like the idea of continuing to keep a buffer through this year because rates will be volatile and we want to be ready to capture the opportunities when they come.

房屋淨值代表著一個巨大的機會。我們已經成長—這是我們兩年前推出的產品，自推出以來一直穩定成長。但如果看看我們現在的狀況，我們仍然——大多數獲得房屋淨值貸款的客戶仍然在遠離我們。因此，我們看到了幫助客戶的巨大機會，我們每天都在對產品進行投資和改進，這正在成為我們工作的越來越重要的部分，我們有信心能夠用滿足客戶需求的新產品來填補產能。我們希望在今年繼續保持緩衝，因為利率將會波動，我們希望在機會到來時做好準備，抓住機會。

The only thing I would say, Doug, to that is like -- and we haven't talked as much about the investments that we've made in the origination platform as we have in servicing. But over the last few years, we've made significant investments in the origination business, effectively componentizing almost every aspect of the origination process.

道格，對此我唯一想說的是——我們還沒有像談論服務那樣談論我們在發起平台上所做的投資。但在過去幾年中，我們對發起業務進行了大量投資，有效地將發起流程的幾乎每個面向組件化。

So our ability to scale today is night and day compared to where it was two years ago. And the team has done a good job there. But we can scale up pretty quickly now with the investments we've made. And we continue to make those in this year and next. So we're only going to become more efficient and more scalable there.

因此，我們今天的擴展能力與兩年前相比有顯著的不同。並且該團隊在那裡做得很好。但現在，憑藉我們已經進行的投資，我們可以相當快地擴大規模。今年和明年我們還會繼續這樣做。因此我們只會變得更有效率和更具可擴展性。

Bose George, KBW.

博斯喬治，KBW。

On the corresponding market share, obviously, it's up meaningfully. Do you see room for share to increase further from here? Is this kind of a good run rate? Also should we think about one more month of Flagstar production since that deal closed end of October?

就相應的市場佔有率而言，顯然是有顯著上升的。您認為今後份額還有進一步增加的空間嗎？這是好的運行率嗎？另外，由於該交易已於 10 月底結束，我們是否還應該考慮 Flagstar 再生產一個月？

Yes. I think -- good morning, Bose. I think on the correspondent, absolutely, you should expect us to continue to grow that and grow share. I mean it's really not super complicated, right? At the end of the day, we're going to continue to focus, like we said, on our scale and our cost leadership. So we're driving costs down, continue to focus on retention.

是的。我想——早上好，Bose。我認為，就通訊員而言，你絕對應該期望我們繼續成長並增加份額。我的意思是它真的不是很複雜，對吧？最終，正如我們所說的，我們將繼續關注我們的規模和成本領先地位。因此，我們正在降低成本，並繼續專注於保留。

And we're ultimately, we think, the best buyer of MSRs. And so with the power of the platform now and the scale of the platform, we think there's going to be a lot of opportunity to continue to grow correspondent at very attractive returns. And you can comment, Kurt, more.

我們認為，最終我們是 MSR 的最佳買家。因此，憑藉該平台目前的力量和規模，我們認為將有很多機會以非常誘人的回報繼續發展通訊業務。庫爾特，您還可以發表更多評論。

On Flagstar. Flagstar is pretty simple, which is, yes, we closed October 31. So we had two months in Q4; one, three months in Q1. So a pretty simple answer, I think, to that, Bose.

在 Flagstar 上。Flagstar 很簡單，是的，我們在 10 月 31 日關閉。因此我們在第四季有兩個月的時間；第一季的一、三個月。所以我認為，Bose，對此的回答非常簡單。

Okay. Great. And then it looks like you recently sold the Flagstar PPO business. Is that -- did that not fit into what you guys want to do on the origination side?

好的。偉大的。看起來您最近出售了 Flagstar PPO 業務。這是不是——這不符合你們在發起方面想要做的事情？

Yes. We look -- and Mike, you can jump in, but we look at that, took a hard look at it and thought about it strategically. But yes, ultimately made a decision that the broker channel was not something that we wanted to move forward with.

是的。我們看一下——麥克，你可以插話，但我們會仔細研究它，並從戰略上考慮它。但是，是的，我們最終決定，我們不想繼續推進經紀人管道。

Yes, and having said that, we were very, very intentional about finding a great partner and finding a home for the team members. And so that was a real commitment that we made to the Flagstar team members and Mr. Cooper team did a great job on that. And we feel like India is a great home for them and good things will happen there. But that's how we thought about it strategically.

是的，話雖如此，我們確實非常有意尋找一個優秀的合作夥伴，為團隊成員找到一個歸宿。這是我們向 Flagstar 團隊成員做出的真正承諾，而 Cooper 先生的團隊在這方面做得非常出色。我們覺得印度是他們的美好家園，那裡會發生美好的事情。但這就是我們的戰略思維。

Derek Sommers, Jefferies.

傑富瑞的德瑞克‧薩默斯 (Derek Sommers)。

I know you guys don't disclose margins by channel, but just given the kind of channel mix shift. Could you provide some directional color on how those trended and kind of how we should think about that in the near term?

我知道你們沒有揭露按通路劃分的利潤率，但只是考慮到通路組合的變化。您能否提供一些關於這些趨勢的方向性資訊以及我們近期應該如何看待這些問題？

Yes, Derek, I'll take it. Look, realistically, from the fourth quarter to the first quarter, the margins didn't really change materially. They -- channel by channel, they were about consistent and they've been consistent. Even in the drop in rates at the end of Q3, we didn't see a real increase in margins. So we've seen pretty consistent margins hold, and that's by product and by channel all the way through.

是的，德瑞克，我接受。看起來，實際上，從第四季到第一季度，利潤率並沒有實質變化。他們透過各個管道保持一致性，而且一直保持一致。即使在第三季末利率下降，我們也沒有看到利潤率真正提高。因此，我們看到利潤率保持相當穩定，無論是按產品還是按通路。

Got it. And I know historically, you guys have targeted a 50/50 mix of subservicing and owned MSR. But kind of given where the portfolio sits in your earlier comments, about increasing wallet share among subservicing clients. Should we kind of think about that target changing a bit?

知道了。我知道，從歷史上看，你們的目標是實現分包服務和自有 MSR 各佔 50% 的比例。但是考慮到您先前評論中的投資組合所處的位置，以及增加次級服務客戶的錢包份額。我們是否應該考慮稍微改變一下這個目標？

Yes I mean, you see the shift where we're now larger in subservicing than we are a known servicing. And as I mentioned in some of the upfront comments, we're seeing really strong organic growth in that business. So a lot of the big increase that happened was due to Flagstar, but what we feel best about is the clients that use us for subservicing are benefiting from our superior efficiency, quality, the customer experience, and they're seeing their business grow more quickly than the rest of the market. And we're going to be there as a partner to grow with them. And so we may see the percentage of subservicing grow a little bit more quickly than own servicing, which obviously requires capital liquidity, use of our balance sheet. But we see opportunities for growth in both parts of the business, frankly.

是的，我的意思是，您看到了這種轉變，我們現在提供的次級服務比已知的服務更大。正如我在一些前期評論中提到的，我們看到該業務正在實現非常強勁的有機成長。因此，很大一部分大幅成長要歸功於 Flagstar，但讓我們感到最開心的是，使用我們提供次級服務的客戶受益於我們卓越的效率、品質和客戶體驗，而且他們的業務成長速度比市場上的其他公司更快。我們將作為合作夥伴與他們一起成長。因此，我們可能會看到次級服務的百分比成長比自身服務的百分比成長得更快一些，這顯然需要資本流動性，使用我們的資產負債表。但坦白說，我們看到這兩個業務部分都有成長機會。

Eric Hagen, BTIG.

BTIG 的 Eric Hagen。

When we think about the inputs and assumptions used for the MSR valuation, can you remind us if there's a recapture estimate, which is factored into the fair market value? And then along those same lines, I mean I noticed that you guys use an option-adjusted spread is one of the key inputs to that valuation. Hopefully, without maybe going down a complicated rabbit hole. Is there a way to think about the spread in this rate environment? Just how sensitive it is to rates or other conditions in the market?

當我們考慮 MSR 估值所使用的輸入和假設時，您能否提醒我們是否有計入公平市場價值的回收估計？然後沿著同樣的思路，我的意思是我注意到你們使用選擇權調整利差是該估值的關鍵輸入之一。希望不要陷入複雜的兔子洞。有沒有辦法考慮這種利率環境下的利差？它對利率或市場其他條件的敏感度到底有多高？

Eric, it's Kurt. So I'll try not to take us down the rabbit hole here because I'd love to do it, and I won't do it. But, yes. I mean we do factor in recapture into our value, but the reality is that recapture, whether it's implicit in -- or explicit in the model or implied because of the discount rate is in everybody's model because that's the way that the MSR is traded these days.

艾瑞克，我是庫爾特。所以我會盡量不讓我們陷入這樣的困境，因為我很想這麼做，但我不會這麼做。但是，是的。我的意思是，我們確實將回收考慮在我們的價值中，但現實情況是，回收，無論是隱含的——還是明確的，或者由於折扣率而隱含的，都存在於每個人的模型中，因為這是目前 MSR 的交易方式。

And in terms of option-adjusted spread, yes, we moved to that model almost three years ago now. And realistically, for a lot of the loans that are for coupon and lower, the optionality of those loans doesn't factor into it at all. So you're looking at essentially just a straight fixed yield that doesn't vary all that much. Whereas on loans that are closer to out the money, you see the option adjusted spread kind of widened a little bit, and that's the way that we look at the portfolio and that's why we were purchasing a lot of deep discount loans in '22 and '23.

就期權調整利差而言，是的，我們大約在三年前就轉向了這個模型。而實際上，對於許多以息票或較低利率計息的貸款來說，這些貸款的可選性根本不是考慮因素。因此，您所看到的基本上只是一個固定的收益率，其變化並不大。而對於更接近現金流出的貸款，你會看到選擇權調整利差有點擴大，這就是我們看待投資組合的方式，這也是我們在 22 年和 23 年購買大量深度折扣貸款的原因。

Okay. Great. Interesting color. How do you see any dismantling of resources at the CFPB maybe changing your business maybe in either direction?

好的。偉大的。有趣的顏色。您如何看待消費者金融保護局 (CFPB) 資源的分割對您的業務產生任何影響？

Look, I think our view is, as you know, consistently, we're going to work with the regulators. We view them -- the way they think about goals of helping customers is the same as the way we think about it. So we will obviously be very involved and engaged, but I mean, we don't see anything changing imminently with them, and we'll kind of navigate that as things unfold.

看，我認為我們的觀點是，如你所知，我們將始終如一地與監管機構合作。我們認為他們－他們思考幫助客戶的目標的方式與我們思考的方式相同。因此，我們顯然會非常投入並參與其中，但我的意思是，我們並沒有看到他們立即發生任何變化，我們會隨著事態的發展來引導這種變化。

Mikhail Goberman, Citizens JMP.

米哈伊爾·戈伯曼 (Mikhail Goberman)，公民 JMP。

If I could just follow up on the range that you guys -- so the guidance that you provided for originations of $30 million to $50 million in the first quarter. I guess thinking, what would need to happen for you guys to sort of hit the upper end of that range? Would it be a continued momentum in a fantastic quarter you guys had in the fourth quarter in the correspondent space? Would it be an increase in the DTC space? And how do you guys kind of sort of think about the mix between those two? And what would cause you to hit the upper band of that range?

如果我可以跟進一下你們的範圍的話——你們為第一季 3000 萬美元至 5000 萬美元的發放提供指導。我在想，你們需要做什麼才能達到這個範圍的上限？你們在通訊領域第四季的出色表現會延續下去嗎？DTC 空間會增加嗎？你們對於這兩者之間的結合有什麼看法？那麼什麼原因會導致您達到該範圍的上限呢？

Yes. I mean the short answer is the biggest driver would be a drop in interest rates. The corresponding business is going to continue to grow. It's relatively low margin, so it makes up a smaller part of the originations earnings, but it is a really important part of feeding, our servicing business.

是的。簡而言之，最大的驅動力是利率下降。相應的業務將繼續成長。它的利潤率相對較低，因此只佔發起收益的較小部分，但它是我們服務業務中非常重要的一部分。

For our direct-to-consumer business right now, with mortgage rates over 7%, there really isn't any rate-term refinance opportunity to speak of. We feel good about being able to operate within the guidance range based on the opportunities we have to help our customers take advantage of the equity they have in their homes through cash-out refinances and through home equity as well as purchase. But if there were -- it happened very quickly in September, if there were a rate drop like that, we'll be standing by, ready to help customers take advantage of it, lower their monthly payments. And that should add a lot of value for our customers and for our originations business.

對於我們目前的直接面向消費者的業務而言，抵押貸款利率超過 7%，實際上並不存在任何值得一提的利率期限再融資機會。我們很高興能夠在指導範圍內運營，因為我們有機會幫助我們的客戶透過現金再融資、房屋淨值以及購買來充分利用他們在房屋中的權益。但如果真的發生了——九月的情況很快就發生了，如果出現了這樣的利率下降，我們會隨時待命，準備幫助客戶利用它，降低他們的每月還款額。這將為我們的客戶和我們的發起業務增加許多價值。

I will say, the quarter. I mean we are seeing positive results in DTC. And we -- and to Mike's point earlier, from a second lien standpoint, we've seen a lot of -- we've made a lot of progress there, and we're growing that business and we think there's a massive opportunity. So I think that those could be some drivers as well to kind of -- as you think about the range.

我會說，季度。我的意思是我們在 DTC 中看到了積極的結果。而且我們 — — 正如麥克之前所說，從第二留置權的角度來看，我們已經看到很多 — — 我們在那裡取得了很多進展，我們正在發展這項業務，我們認為這是一個巨大的機會。所以我認為這些也可能是一些驅動因素—正如你考慮範圍時所說的那樣。

Yes. And we've really only been in the second lien product in any material way for about 1.5 years, and investors are now getting more and more comfortable with the product that we're delivering because it is all from our customers. So we know the performance and the performance has been excellent. We're getting great execution. And I think more and more, that's allowing us to give great prices to our customers, which is just going to accelerate that cycle.

是的。我們實際上只以任何實質的方式涉足第二留置權產品約 1.5 年，投資者現在對我們提供的產品越來越放心，因為這些產品全部來自我們的客戶。我們知道其表現，而且其表現非常出色。我們的執行非常出色。我認為這越來越使我們能夠向客戶提供優惠的價格，這將加速這一週期。

Giuliano Bologna, Compass Point.

朱利亞諾·博洛尼亞，指南針角。

Congratulations on the continued incredible performance. The first question I have, and hopefully it's not too complicated, but if I assume you're at the midpoint of the 16% to 20% or call it, 18% ROTCE, even if you're buying back a couple hundred million dollars of stock and burdens are growing. You'd still be delevering unless you're growing the MSR book somewhere in the teens and probably even as high as the mid-teens.

恭喜您持續的出色表現。我的第一個問題是，希望它不會太複雜，但如果我假設你處於 16% 到 20% 的中間點，或者稱之為 18% 的 ROTCE，即使你回購了數億美元的股票，負擔也會增加。除非您的 MSR 帳面成長達到十幾歲甚至十幾歲的水平，否則您仍會去槓桿。

So I'm curious when you think about the growth in UPB and the growth in your servicing UPB. Yes. Should we be thinking about it in terms of like low double digits, mid-double digits, could it go higher? I realize that the market is changing. There's probably less full deals and you're going to be a bit more focused on correspondent. But just trying to think about roughly where you think the growth rate of UPB should be in the -- at least in the near to medium term?

因此，當您考慮 UPB 的成長以及您服務的 UPB 的成長時，我很好奇。是的。我們是否應該以低兩位數、中兩位數的方式來考慮這個問題，它能否更高呢？我意識到市場正在改變。可能完整的交易較少，而你將更加關注通訊員。但只是想大致想想，您認為 UPB 的成長率應該是多少——至少在近期到中期內？

Giuliano, it's Kurt. Thanks for the comment and for the question. I think you're right. I think looking at it in kind of the growth in the low double digits. But as we said earlier, we're not going to be chasing yield. And we know -- I mean, obviously, our stock has performed really, really well, and we're pleased with that, but we're still trading at about an 8 times forward PE. So we still are going to be active investors in kind of repurchasing stock. And to your point, if we're not seeing great opportunities now, we use the opportunity to delever a little bit, keep some dry powder and be ready for when things improve again. And so while we have that in our plan in terms of kind of low double-digit growth, we're going to be opportunistic around it.

朱利亞諾，我是庫爾特。感謝您的評論和提問。我認為你是對的。我認為從某種程度上來看，其成長速度處於兩位數以下。但正如我們之前所說，我們不會追求收益。我們知道——我的意思是，顯然我們的股票表現非常非常好，我們對此感到滿意，但我們的預期本益比仍約為 8 倍。因此，我們仍將以回購股票的方式積極投資。正如您所說，如果我們現在沒有看到很好的機遇，那麼我們就利用這個機會稍微降低槓桿率，保留一些現金，為情況再次好轉做好準備。因此，雖然我們的計劃中提出了低兩位數的成長目標，但我們將抓住機會。

That's very helpful. And then thinking about the origination side, UPB is up 57% this year. And that's obviously the DTC channel is internally focused. So I would assume that you should still have some pretty strong growth as you kind of integrate the Flagstar portfolio and kind of stabilize the portfolio you've acquired and start working on recapture opportunities within that book. Is it fair to assume you still grow even regardless of the rate environment over the next few quarters?

這非常有幫助。然後從起源方面來看，UPB 今年上漲了 57%。這顯然是 DTC 通路內部關注的重點。因此，我認為，當您整合 Flagstar 投資組合、穩定您所獲得的投資組合併開始努力重新獲得投資組合中的機會時，您仍然應該會實現相當強勁的成長。是否可以合理地假設，無論未來幾季的利率環境如何，你們仍能實現成長？

And then there's -- I'm curious what would really move the needle in terms of accelerating DTC growth? Would you need kind of 50 basis points, 100 basis points or any kind of level where you see a real acceleration in the DTC volumes in your opinion?

然後還有——我很好奇什麼才能真正推動 DTC 成長？您認為是否需要 50 個基點、100 個基點或任何您認為能夠看到 DTC 交易量真正加速的水平？

Yes, Giuliano, I mean, the short answer is yes. There's wind at our back as the portfolio continues to grow. So we'd expect growth throughout the year. And it's the opportunities beyond that are very much the things that we talked about. Continued execution, the huge opportunity that we see in home equity, we're making investments in the scalability of the business. We're continuing to drive our cost leadership there. So we expect our cost to originate to go down over the course of the year.

是的，朱利亞諾，我的意思是，簡短的回答是肯定的。隨著投資組合的不斷成長，我們獲得了巨大的助力。因此我們預計全年都會成長。我們所談論的正是超出這一範圍的機會。持續執行，我們在房屋淨值中看到的巨大機遇，我們正在對業務的可擴展性進行投資。我們將繼續在那裡保持成本領先地位。因此，我們預計我們的成本將會在今年內下降。

If and when rates do drop, and we start to use our capacity, we're now able to add new people and get them ramped up much more quickly than we used to be able to in the past. We're investing in digital self-service tools. So customers can help themselves. We're investing in automation. So you put the growth in the portfolio with the investments we're making and we feel really great about the opportunities we see ahead in this business.

如果費率確實下降，並且我們開始使用我們的產能，那麼我們現在就可以增加新員工，並且比過去更快地提高他們的工作效率。我們正在投資數位自助服務工具。這樣顧客就可以自助。我們正在投資自動化。因此，您將投資組合的成長與我們的投資結合起來，我們對這項業務未來的機會感到非常高興。

I'm showing no further questions at this time. I would now like to turn it back to Kenneth Posner for closing remarks.

我目前沒有其他問題。現在我想請肯尼斯·波斯納作最後發言。

Great. Thanks very much for joining us. And if you have follow-up questions, please reach out to the Investor Relations team. We're here to answer them. Thank you.

偉大的。非常感謝您加入我們。如果您有後續問題，請聯絡投資者關係團隊。我們來回答他們的問題。謝謝。

Thank you.

謝謝。

Thank you for your participation in today's conference. This does conclude the program. You may now disconnect.

感謝您參加今天的會議。該計劃確實結束了。您現在可以斷開連線。