使用警語:中文譯文來源為 Google 翻譯,僅供參考,實際內容請以英文原文為主
Operator
Operator
Good afternoon, everyone, and welcome to Columbia Sportswear second-quarter 2024 financial results.
大家下午好,歡迎閱讀 Columbia Sportswear 2024 年第二季財務業績。
(Operator Instructions)
(操作員說明)
It is now my pleasure to turn the floor over to your host, Andrew Burns.
現在我很高興將發言權交給主持人安德魯伯恩斯。
Sir, the floor is yours.
先生,地板是你的了。
Andrew Burns - Vice President of Investor Relations and Strategic Planning
Andrew Burns - Vice President of Investor Relations and Strategic Planning
Good afternoon and thanks for joining us to discuss Columbia Sportswear Company's second quarter results.
下午好,感謝您加入我們討論哥倫比亞運動服裝公司第二季業績。
In addition to the earnings release, we furnished an 8-K containing a detailed CFO commentary and financial review presentation explaining our results.
除了收益發布之外,我們還提供了一份 8-K,其中包含詳細的財務長評論和解釋我們結果的財務審查演示。
Stocking is also available on our Investor Relations website, investor.columbia.com.
您也可以在我們的投資者關係網站 Investor.columbia.com 上取得庫存。
With me today on the call are Chairman, President and Chief Executive Officer, Tim Boyle; Executive Vice President and Chief Financial Officer, Jim Swanson; and Executive Vice President and Chief Administrative Officer, General Counsel, Peter Bragdon.
今天與我一起參加電話會議的有董事長、總裁兼執行長 Tim Boyle;執行副總裁兼財務長吉姆‧斯旺森;執行副總裁兼首席行政官兼總法律顧問 Peter Bragdon。
This conference call will contain forward-looking statements regarding Columbia's expectations anticipations or beliefs about the future.
本次電話會議將包含有關哥倫比亞對未來的期望、預期或信念的前瞻性聲明。
These statements are expressed in good faith and believed a reasonable basis.
這些陳述是出於善意表達的,並被認為有合理的基礎。
However, each forward-looking statement is subject to many risks and uncertainties and actual results may differ materially from those projected.
然而,每項前瞻性陳述都面臨許多風險和不確定性,實際結果可能與預測有重大差異。
Many of these risks and uncertainties are described in Columbia's SEC filings.
哥倫比亞提交給美國證券交易委員會的文件中描述了許多這些風險和不確定性。
We caution that forward-looking statements are inherently less reliable than historical information.
我們提醒您,前瞻性陳述本質上不如歷史資訊可靠。
We don't undertake any duty to update any of the forward-looking statements after the date of the conference call to conform the forward-looking statements to actual results or to changes in our expectations,
我們不承擔在電話會議日期後更新任何前瞻性陳述以使前瞻性陳述符合實際結果或我們期望的變更的義務,
ut I also like to point out that during the call, we may reference certain non-GAAP financial measures, including constant currency net sales.
但我還想指出,在電話會議期間,我們可能會參考某些非公認會計準則財務指標,包括固定匯率淨銷售額。
For further information about non-GAAP financial measures and results, including a reconciliation of GAAP to non-GAAP measures and an explanation of management's rationale for referencing these non-GAAP measures, please refer to the supplemental financial information section and financial tables included in our earnings release and the appendix of our CFO commentary and financial review.
有關非 GAAP 財務指標和結果的更多信息,包括 GAAP 與非 GAAP 指標的調整表以及管理層參考這些非 GAAP 指標的理由的解釋,請參閱我們的補充財務資訊部分和財務表格。財務長評論和財務審查的附錄。
Following our prepared remarks, we will host a Q&A period during which we will limit each caller to two questions so we can get to everyone by the end of the hour.
在我們準備好的演講之後,我們將舉辦問答環節,在此期間我們將限制每個來電者提出兩個問題,以便我們能夠在一小時結束前聯繫到每個人。
Now I'll turn the call over to Tim.
現在我將把電話轉給提姆。
Timothy Boyle - Chairman of the Board, President, Chief Executive Officer
Timothy Boyle - Chairman of the Board, President, Chief Executive Officer
Thanks, Andrew, and good afternoon.
謝謝安德魯,下午好。
I'm pleased to report second quarter results were generally in line with guidance.
我很高興地報告第二季業績整體符合預期。
We're working to maximize sales in a challenging US marketplace, characterized by slow consumer demand and cautious retailers outside the US.
我們正在努力在充滿挑戰的美國市場中最大限度地提高銷售額,該市場的特點是消費者需求緩慢且美國以外的零售商持謹慎態度。
We're experiencing strong demand for our products in most international markets, including China and our Europe direct business.
大多數國際市場(包括中國和我們的歐洲直接業務)對我們的產品有著強勁的需求。
Through the first half of the year, we've made meaningful progress on our top line priorities, inventory, exiting the quarter was down 29% year over year, reflecting substantial progress in our inventory reduction efforts.
今年上半年,我們在庫存這一首要任務上取得了有意義的進展,本季庫存年減了 29%,反映出我們在庫存削減工作方面取得了實質進展。
The profit improvement program is on track to deliver between $75 million and $90 million in cost savings this year, we're reducing expenses associated with carrying excess inventory and driving cost reductions in focused areas of the business.
利潤改善計畫今年預計將節省 7,500 萬至 9,000 萬美元的成本,我們正在減少與庫存過剩相關的費用,並推動重點業務領域的成本降低。
We have generated strong operating cash flow of over $100 million through the first half of the year, enabling meaningful return of capital to shareholders.
今年上半年,我們產生了超過 1 億美元的強勁營運現金流,為股東帶來了有意義的資本回報。
We're on track to generate over $350 million in operating cash flow this year with much of the cost containment and inventory reduction actions well underway.
隨著大部分成本控制和庫存減少行動的順利進行,我們今年預計將產生超過 3.5 億美元的營運現金流。
Our focus is on returning to growth for Columbia.
我們的重點是哥倫比亞恢復成長。
We're building strategy to bring new consumers into the brand through enhancing our product line and marketing.
我們正在製定策略,透過增強我們的產品線和行銷來吸引新消費者進入該品牌。
Our efforts to stabilize ROE and lay the foundation for its next phase of growth are in motion.
我們正在努力穩定ROE,為下一階段的成長奠定基礎。
prAna's turnaround efforts have begun with signs that the brand is on a path to return to growth in the seasons ahead.
prAna 的轉型努力已經開始,有跡象表明該品牌將在未來幾季恢復成長。
Mountain Hardwear is benefiting from its recent brand refresh and is on track to deliver growth this year.
Mountain Hardwear 受益於其最近的品牌更新,並有望在今年實現成長。
Our fortress balance sheet remains a competitive advantage and enables us to take a thoughtful approach to unlocking the long-term growth and profit improvement opportunities we see across the business.
我們的堡壘資產負債表仍然具有競爭優勢,使我們能夠採取深思熟慮的方法來釋放我們在整個業務中看到的長期成長和利潤改善機會。
We exited the quarter with cash and short-term investments of over $710 million and no debt.
本季結束時,我們擁有超過 7.1 億美元的現金和短期投資,並且沒有任何債務。
As we begin the second half of the year.
當我們開始下半年時。
Our fall '24 order book supports sequential improvement in wholesale sales with the potential for overall sales to return to growth by the fourth quarter.
我們的 24 年秋季訂單支援批發銷售的連續改善,整體銷售有可能在第四季度恢復成長。
Given our year-to-date performance and our current trends that we see across the business.
鑑於我們今年迄今為止的業績以及我們在整個業務中看到的當前趨勢。
We are reiterating our full year net sales and diluted earnings per share guidance overall remain confident that our fortress balance sheet, differentiated brand portfolio and strategies position us to reaccelerate growth and capture market share over time.
我們重申我們的全年淨銷售額和稀釋每股收益指導總體上仍然有信心,我們的堡壘資產負債表、差異化的品牌組合和戰略使我們能夠隨著時間的推移重新加速增長並佔領市場份額。
I will now review our second quarter financial performance.
我現在將回顧我們第二季的財務表現。
I'd like to remind everyone that the second quarter is our lowest volume sales quarter.
我想提醒大家,第二季是我們銷售最低的季度。
Small shifts in the timing of shipments and expenses can have a material impact on reported results.
發貨時間和費用的微小變化可能會對報告的結果產生重大影響。
Net sales of $570 million decreased 8% year-over-year and were within our guidance range.
淨銷售額為 5.7 億美元,年減 8%,在我們的指導範圍內。
Gross margin contracted 270 basis points, slightly below plan as we made efforts to spur demand and reduce inventory in the US.
由於我們努力刺激需求並減少美國的庫存,毛利率收縮了 270 個基點,略低於計劃。
SG&A expenses decreased 3%, primarily reflecting lower supply chain expenses.
SG&A 費用下降 3%,主要反映供應鏈費用減少。
SG&A was below plan in the quarter, resulting in our operating loss coming in slightly better than the guidance range.
本季的銷售、管理和行政費用低於計劃,導致我們的營運虧損略好於指導範圍。
Our second quarter loss per share of $0.20 compares to diluted earnings per share of $0.14 in the second quarter of 2023.
我們第二季的每股虧損為 0.20 美元,而 2023 年第二季的攤薄後每股收益為 0.14 美元。
Looking at net sales by geography, US net sales decreased 15%, primarily driven by a high 20% decrease in US wholesale.
從地域淨銷售額來看,美國淨銷售額下降了 15%,主要是因為美國批發大幅下降 20%。
The combination of lower Spring '24 shipments and ongoing retailer cautiousness impacted results, while wholesale sell-through was trending down mid-single digit percent in part due to lower shipments.
24 年春季出貨量下降和零售商持續的謹慎態度共同影響了業績,而批發銷量則呈現中個位數下降趨勢,部分原因是出貨量下降。
Columbia brand channel inventories are well below prior seasons.
哥倫比亞品牌通路庫存遠低於前幾季。
We're well positioned to exit the season with lean channel inventories.
我們已做好充分準備,以精益渠道庫存結束本季。
US.
我們。
DTC net sales decreased low-single digit percent.
DTC 淨銷售額下降了低個位數百分比。
Brick-and-mortar was up mid-single digit percent driven by the contribution from temporary clearance locations and new permanent stores opened over the last year.
由於臨時清倉地點和去年開設的新永久商店的貢獻,實體店成長了中個位數。
US e-commerce net sales were down high teens percent.
美國電子商務淨銷售額下降了百分之十幾。
A challenging e-commerce environment for traditional outdoor brands, coupled with efforts to deemphasize promotions on columbia.com weighed on performance.
傳統戶外品牌面臨的電子商務環境充滿挑戰,再加上 columbia.com 上促銷活動的淡化,影響了業績。
As we have said on past calls, our goal is to establish columbia.com as the best expression of the brand, ensuring that visitors to the site see our latest products and innovations with enriched brand storytelling.
正如我們在過去的電話中所說,我們的目標是將 columbia.com 打造為品牌的最佳表達方式,確保網站的訪客透過豐富的品牌故事了解我們的最新產品和創新。
For my review of second quarter year-over-year net sales growth in international geographies, I will reference constant currency rates to illustrate underlying trends in each market.
在我對國際地區第二季年比淨銷售額成長的回顧中,我將參考固定匯率來說明每個市場的基本趨勢。
Latin America Asia Pacific region or LAAP, net sales increased 13%.
拉丁美洲亞太地區或LAAP,淨銷售額成長13%。
China net sales increased mid-teens percent led by robust e-commerce growth.
在電子商務強勁成長的帶動下,中國的淨銷售額成長了百分之十左右。
Highlights in the quarter include a successful 618 event and continued growth with TikTok, which remains one of our fastest-growing platforms.
本季度的亮點包括 618 活動的成功舉辦以及 TikTok 的持續成長,TikTok 仍然是我們成長最快的平台之一。
While e-commerce performance is leading, we are seeing strong performance in wholesale and DTC brick-and-mortar.
雖然電子商務表現領先,但我們看到批發和 DTC 實體店也表現強勁。
Overall, the China marketplace is healthy, which is translating to increased store productivity, lower discounting and leaner inventory levels.
總體而言,中國市場是健康的,這意味著商店生產力的提高、折扣的降低和庫存水準的減少。
Our success in this competitive market is fueled by localized product and marketing investments, rooted in our brand's deep heritage and innovation.
我們在這個競爭激烈的市場中取得的成功得益於在地化的產品和行銷投資,這些投資植根於我們品牌的深厚底蘊和創新。
Our brand activations in the quarter highlight the team's focus on cultural relevance and consumer connections our summer height brand campaign featured a video with popular outdoor enthusiasts that garnered millions of views and even more impressions on social sites.
我們本季的品牌活動凸顯了團隊對文化相關性和消費者聯繫的關注,我們的夏季品牌活動以受歡迎的戶外愛好者的影片為特色,該影片在社交網站上獲得了數百萬的觀看次數和更多的印象。
We validated PFG's global appeal with a successful TikTok campaign in cooperation with a top fishing influencer on the platform.
我們與平台上的頂級釣魚影響者合作,透過成功的 TikTok 活動驗證了 PFG 的全球吸引力。
We have several more marketing activations planned for the balance of this year in this important market, we continue to anticipate that China will be one of our fastest growing markets in 2024.
我們計劃在今年餘下時間在這個重要市場開展更多行銷活動,我們仍然預計中國將在 2024 年成為我們成長最快的市場之一。
Japan net sales increased high single digit percent.
日本淨銷售額成長了高個位數百分比。
The continued increase in international tourism more than offset softer domestic spending.
國際旅遊業的持續成長足以抵銷國內支出的疲軟。
This summer, we activated several marketing campaigns throughout the season, including hike, travel, rainwear and fishing activations.
今年夏天,我們在整個季節啟動了多項行銷活動,包括健行、旅行、雨衣和釣魚活動。
Beginning this month, we'll be sponsoring a short-form TV program called Life in the outdoors, highlighting Columbia innovations and our connection to the outdoors.
從本月開始,我們將贊助一個名為「戶外生活」的短片電視節目,重點介紹哥倫比亞的創新以及我們與戶外的連結。
This program will air throughout the fall season, reaching millions of consumers across the greater Tokyo area.
該節目將在整個秋季播出,涵蓋大東京地區的數百萬消費者。
Korea net sales declined low teens percent.
韓國淨銷售額下降百分之十幾。
LAAP distributor markets were up high 30%, primarily reflecting earlier shipments of increased fall '24 orders.
LAAP 經銷商市場上漲了 30%,主要反映了 24 年秋季訂單的早期出貨量增加。
Europe, Middle East and Africa region, or EMEA, net sales increased 3%.
歐洲、中東和非洲地區(即 EMEA)的淨銷售額成長了 3%。
Europe-direct net sales increased low double digit percent, led by a robust DTC growth.
在 DTC 強勁成長的帶動下,歐洲直接淨銷售額成長了兩位數百分比。
I recently had the opportunity to visit Europe, and meet with several leaders of our largest customers.
我最近有機會訪問歐洲,並會見了我們最大客戶的幾位領導人。
It's clear that we have a tremendous opportunity to build bigger businesses with these strategic partners.
顯然,我們有巨大的機會與這些策略夥伴建立更大的業務。
Our teams in Europe are doing an exceptional job creating Columbia brand visibility and relevance in the marketplace.
我們在歐洲的團隊在創造哥倫比亞品牌知名度和市場相關性方面表現出色。
This summer, our brand efforts focused on generating momentum in the hike category through a variety of marketing efforts and grassroot events.
今年夏天,我們的品牌工作重點是透過各種行銷活動和草根活動為健行類別創造動力。
From our Get hiked marketing campaign to the Columbia Hike Society and an exclusive partnership with Mega Marsch, we are strengthening Columbia's presence in this important geography.
從我們的「獲取健行」行銷活動到哥倫比亞健行協會,以及與 Mega Marsch 的獨家合作夥伴關係,我們正在加強哥倫比亞在這一重要地區的影響力。
Our Europe-direct business remains on track to be one of our fastest-growing markets this year.
我們的歐洲直航業務仍有望成為今年成長最快的市場之一。
Our EMEA distributor business decreased low single digit percent.
我們的歐洲、中東和非洲分銷商業務下降了低個位數百分比。
Canada net sales decreased 4% as lower wholesale sales were partially offset by DTC growth.
加拿大淨銷售額下降 4%,批發銷售額的下降被 DTC 的成長部分抵銷。
Columbia Remains well positioned in Canada with high brand awareness and consumer trust.
哥倫比亞憑藉較高的品牌知名度和消費者信任度在加拿大保持著良好的地位。
Looking at performance by brand.
按品牌查看業績。
Columbia brand net sales decreased 5%, primarily reflecting a challenging US marketplace, partially offset by healthy trends in many international markets.
Columbia 品牌淨銷售額下降 5%,主要反映美國市場充滿挑戰,但部分被許多國際市場的健康趨勢所抵消。
At the end of June, we launched our revamped US.
六月底,我們推出了改版後的 US。
Columbia Greater Rewards loyalty program with several exciting new features aimed at enhancing consumer benefits and engagement.
哥倫比亞更大獎勵忠誠度計劃具有多項令人興奮的新功能,旨在提高消費者利益和參與。
Members now enjoy new rewards personalized offers tailored to their preferences and the ability to earn points on purchases.
會員現在可享受根據其喜好量身定制的新獎勵、個人化優惠以及透過購買賺取積分的能力。
Spending over $300 annually earns members are newly launched titanium status which includes additional perks like early access to exclusive events and products.
每年消費超過 300 美元即可獲得新推出的鈦金會員資格,其中包括額外福利,例如提前參與獨家活動和產品。
Columbia Greater Rewards program members already represent the majority of US DTC sales with over 5 million active users who have made a purchase in the last year.
Columbia Greater Rewards 計畫成員已占美國 DTC 銷售額的大部分,去年有超過 500 萬活躍用戶進行購買。
These valuable Columbia customers typically spend more and purchase more frequently than non-members.
這些有價值的哥倫比亞客戶通常比非會員花費更多、購買更頻繁。
With new and enhanced features, as well as our continued expansion of benefits, I believe we will be able to further increase the impact of this important program over time.
憑藉新的和增強的功能,以及我們不斷擴大的優勢,我相信隨著時間的推移,我們將能夠進一步提高這項重要計劃的影響力。
On the innovation front, Columbia brand's cooling technologies and sun protection products are key differentiators.
在創新方面,哥倫比亞品牌的冷卻技術和防曬產品是關鍵的差異化優勢。
This spring, we introduced our latest cooling technology, Omni-Shade Broad Spectrum Airflow, which provides lightweight breathable UV protection.
今年春天,我們推出了最新的冷卻技術 Omni-Shade Broad Spectrum Airflow,可提供輕盈、透氣的紫外線防護。
During the quarter, several publications highlighted our unique tooling technologies, including Forbes' list of Best Sun Shirts and Sport Fishing's Best Father Day gifts for Fishermen.
本季度,多份出版物重點介紹了我們獨特的工具技術,包括《富比士》最佳太陽襯衫排行榜和《釣魚運動》為漁民提供的最佳父親節禮物排行榜。
Several Columbia products were also highlighted in an ABC News article on the best sun protective clothing to keep your skin safe.
美國廣播公司新聞 (ABC News) 的一篇有關保護皮膚安全的最佳防曬服的文章中還重點介紹了哥倫比亞的幾種產品。
This spring, we also launched our new Omni-MAX footwear system, which combines versatile cushioning, enhanced stability and increased traction.
今年春天,我們還推出了全新的 Omni-MAX 鞋類系統,該系統結合了多功能緩衝、增強的穩定性和增加的牽引力。
Omni-MAX is featured in several key footwear styles and has been recognized by several top media outlets and reviewers.
Omni-MAX 出現在多種主要鞋類款式中,並得到了多家頂級媒體和評論家的認可。
Women's Health Magazine awarded the shoe as a best new sneaker of '24 and Outdoor Life named our Columbia PFG Castback as the best boat shoe in its annual fishing footwear reviews.
《女性健康》雜誌將該鞋評為 24 世紀最佳新款運動鞋,Outdoor Life 在其年度釣魚鞋評論中將我們的 Columbia PFG Castback 評為最佳船鞋。
Omni-MAX will be an important component of our footwear growth strategy in the season ahead.
Omni-MAX 將成為我們下一季鞋類成長策略的重要組成部分。
As we look forward to fall, we're building on the success of Omni-Heat Infinity with more styles and a global marketing campaign.
展望秋季,我們將在 Omni-Heat Infinity 的成功基礎上推出更多款式並開展全球行銷活動。
We're expanding the Omni-Heat family of warming technologies with the addition of Omni-Heat Arctic.
我們正在透過增加 Omni-Heat Arctic 來擴展 Omni-Heat 系列暖化技術。
This new biomimicry insulation system is inspired by how polar bears keep warm in extreme conditions.
這種新型仿生隔熱系統的靈感來自於北極熊在極端條件下保暖的方式。
Omni-Heat Arctic starts with a translucent outer layer that lets solar energy in.
Omni-Heat Arctic 從一個半透明的外層開始,可以讓太陽能進入。
Heat is then transmitted to an insulation layer close to the body for maximum warmth mimicking a Polar Bear's warmth protection system.
然後熱量被傳遞到靠近身體的隔熱層,以模仿北極熊的保暖系統,以實現最大程度的保暖。
The result is lightweight, highly efficient warmth, boosted by solar power.
結果是在太陽能的推動下,重量輕、高效保暖。
Shifting to our emerging brands.
轉向我們的新興品牌。
Mountain Hardwear net sales increased 2% as DTC growth was partially offset by lower wholesale net sales.
Mountain Hardwear 淨銷售額成長 2%,DTC 成長被批發淨銷售額下降部分抵銷。
During the quarter, Mountain Hardwear activated its sun be Sun Wise marketing campaign, which highlights key sun protective products and their benefits by partnering with online sports community Strava and leveraging content from athletes, influencers and media outlets, Mountain Hardwear was able to increase visibility and bring new consumers into the brand.
本季度,Mountain Hardwear 啟動了 sun be Sun Wise 行銷活動,透過與線上運動社群 Strava 合作並利用運動員、影響者和媒體機構的內容,強調關鍵防曬產品及其優點,Mountain Hardwear 能夠提高知名度和為品牌帶來新的消費者。
Looking at the second half of the year, Mountain Hardwear has several brand and product activations, validating its position as the premier outdoor apparel and equipment brand.
展望下半年,Mountain Hardwear 的多個品牌和產品激活,證實了其作為戶外服裝和裝備第一品牌的地位。
These include expanding the iconic Ghost Whisperer collection and reigniting their snow sports offering.
其中包括擴展標誌性的 Ghost Whisperer 系列並重新點燃他們的雪上運動產品。
I'm also excited for the next month when USA Climbing team member and Mountain Hardwear athlete Jesse Grupper who will be competing for gold in Paris.
我也對下個月美國攀岩隊成員兼山地硬裝運動員傑西·格魯珀 (Jesse Grupper) 將在巴黎爭奪金牌感到興奮。
Good luck, Jesse.
祝你好運,傑西。
prAna net sales decreased 21% in the quarter with declines across wholesale and DTC.
prAna 本季淨銷售額下降 21%,批發和 DTC 業務均下降。
And I'm confident that prAna's new leadership team has strengthened the brand's talent, product and marketing strategies.
我相信 prAna 的新領導團隊已經加強了該品牌的人才、產品和行銷策略。
While it's not evident in second quarter results, prAna's revitalization is apparent in future season orders, which suggests a return to growth.
雖然在第二季的業績中並不明顯,但 prAna 的復甦在未來季節的訂單中是顯而易見的,這表明其恢復了成長。
SOREL brand net sales decreased 44% with challenging demand for spring '24 products across wholesale and DTC.
由於批發和 DTC 對 24 年春季產品的需求充滿挑戰,SOREL 品牌淨銷售額下降了 44%。
As a reminder, the second quarter is SOREL's lowest volume quarter, typically representing about 10% of full year net sales.
提醒一下,第二季度是 SOREL 銷量最低的季度,通常約佔全年淨銷售額的 10%。
New leadership is focused on stabilizing business trends while revitalizing the brand to drive long-term sustainable growth.
新領導層致力於穩定業務趨勢,同時振興品牌,以推動長期永續成長。
This evolution will take time, but I remain confident in SOREL's future.
這種演變需要時間,但我對 SOREL 的未來仍然充滿信心。
I'll now discuss our 2024 financial outlook.
我現在將討論我們 2024 年的財務前景。
This outlook and commentary include forward-looking statements.
本展望與評論包含前瞻性陳述。
Please see our CFO commentary and financial review presentation for additional details and disclosures related to these statements.
請參閱我們的財務長評論和財務審查簡報,以了解與這些報表相關的更多詳細資訊和揭露資訊。
Looking across the global marketplace, there are many external risks and uncertainties.
縱觀全球市場,外部風險和不確定因素較多。
Outdoor Industry and US consumer headwinds, geopolitical conflicts, supply chain disruptions, and upcoming elections in many of our major markets.
戶外產業和美國消費者面臨的阻力、地緣政治衝突、供應鏈中斷以及我們許多主要市場即將舉行的選舉。
These factors, among others, have the potential to impact consumer demand and our operations.
除此之外,這些因素有可能影響消費者需求和我們的營運。
We continue to monitor disruptions in the Red Sea.
我們繼續監測紅海的混亂情況。
At this time, delays appear manageable, and the vast majority of our product line is expected to be delivered on time and in full.
目前,延誤似乎是可以控制的,我們的絕大多數產品線預計將按時、全額交付。
We have also seen a spike in spot pricing for ocean freight in recent months.
近幾個月來,我們還看到海運現貨價格飆升。
We utilized contracted pricing for the bulk of our ocean freight, which minimizes our exposure to spot pricing.
我們對大部分海運採用合約定價,這最大限度地減少了現貨定價的風險。
With that said, we have noted an increase in peak season surcharges, and our guidance incorporates our best estimate of the impact of these supply chain risks for the balance of the year.
儘管如此,我們注意到旺季附加費有所增加,我們的指導意見納入了我們對今年剩餘時間這些供應鏈風險影響的最佳估計。
We are reiterating our net sales outlook of a 2% to 4% decline.
我們重申淨銷售額預期將下降 2% 至 4%。
While there are modest changes across our portfolio, our overall sales expectations have not meaningful change.
雖然我們的產品組合發生了適度的變化,但我們的整體銷售預期並沒有發生有意義的變化。
Gross margin is now expected to expand 40 to 60 basis points to 50% to 50.2%.
目前預計毛利率將擴大40至60個基點至50%至50.2%。
This is below our prior guidance reflecting efforts to spur demand and opportunistically work down inventory levels.
這低於我們先前的指導,反映出刺激需求和伺機降低庫存水準的努力。
SG&A is expected to be between 42% to 43% of net sales, leading to an operating margin of 7.7% to 8.4%.
SG&A 預計將佔淨銷售額的 42% 至 43%,營運利潤率為 7.7% 至 8.4%。
We are reiterating our diluted earnings per share outlook of $3.65 to $4.05.
我們重申稀釋後每股收益預期為 3.65 美元至 4.05 美元。
We continue to expect strong operating cash flows of at least $350 million in the year, while it's too early to comment on 2025 growth prospects, I'd like to share that early indications from our spring '25 wholesale order book suggests a return to growth in our wholesale business in the first half of '25.
我們仍然預計今年的營運現金流將至少達到3.5 億美元,雖然現在評論2025 年的成長前景還為時過早,但我想分享一下,我們25 年春季批發訂單簿的早期跡象表明,經濟將恢復成長25 年上半年我們的批發業務。
Looking beyond spring '25, we're encouraged with the sharpened strategic focus and growth plans for each of our brands.
展望 25 年春季之後,我們對每個品牌的策略重點和成長計畫的明確化感到鼓舞。
For Columbia, we're focused on bringing younger active consumers into the brand through an enhanced product line that further emphasizes innovation, performance and style.
對於 Columbia 來說,我們致力於透過進一步強調創新、性能和風格的增強產品線,將年輕活躍的消費者帶入該品牌。
We also see the opportunity to elevate the brand's presentation across channels.
我們也看到了提升品牌跨通路展示的機會。
We know that when we target the right consumers with our innovative products we win in the marketplace.
我們知道,當我們以創新產品瞄準正確的消費者時,我們就能贏得市場。
In summary, I'm confident we have the right strategies in place to unlock the significant growth opportunities we see across the business. we're investing in our strategic priorities to accelerate profitable growth, create iconic products that are differentiated, functional and innovative, drive brand engagement with increased focused demand creation and investments, enhance consumer experiences by investing in capabilities to delight and retain consumers, amplify marketplace excellence that's digitally led, omnichannel and global and empower talent that's driven by one of our core values.
總之,我相信我們已經制定了正確的策略來釋放我們在整個業務中看到的重大成長機會。我們正在投資我們的策略重點,以加速獲利成長,創造差異化、功能性和創新性的標誌性產品,透過增加集中需求創造和投資來推動品牌參與,透過投資取悅和留住消費者的能力來增強消費者體驗,擴大市場以數位化為主導、全通路和全球性的卓越,並賦予由我們核心價值之一驅動的人才。
That concludes my prepared remarks.
我準備好的發言就到此結束。
We welcome your questions for the remainder of the hour.
我們歡迎您在剩下的時間裡提出問題。
Operator, can you help us with that?
接線員,您能幫助我們嗎?
Operator
Operator
Everyone, at this time be conducting a question-and-answer session.
大家現在正在進行問答環節。
(Operator Instructions)
(操作員說明)
Bob Drbul, Guggenheim Securities.
鮑勃‧德布爾,古根漢證券公司。
Bob Drbul - Analyst
Bob Drbul - Analyst
Hi, good afternoon.
嗨,下午好。
Tim, I was wondering if you can expand upon your, I guess, the outlook for the rest of the year, the sequential improvement in the order book the possibility of return to growth in the Q4?
提姆,我想知道您是否可以詳細闡述今年剩餘時間的前景、訂單的連續改善以及第四季度恢復成長的可能性?
Like what would it take for you to return to growth in Q4?
例如如何才能在第四季恢復成長?
And is that specifically US returning to growth?
這就是美國恢復成長的具體情況嗎?
And then on the early read for spring '25, can you expand a bit more?
然後關於 25 年春季的早期閱讀,你能擴展一下嗎?
Is it continued growth in Europe and a return to wholesale growth in spring?
歐洲是否持續成長並在春季恢復批發成長?
Just wondering if you can just expand a bit on some of those comments?
只是想知道您是否可以對其中一些評論進行一些擴展?
Timothy Boyle - Chairman of the Board, President, Chief Executive Officer
Timothy Boyle - Chairman of the Board, President, Chief Executive Officer
Yes, certainly.
是的,當然了。
Well today our order book is in good shape for the back half of the year.
今天我們的訂單簿在今年下半年狀況良好。
So we don't expect big changes in that book to give us what we're expecting in terms of our volumes for the balance of the year.
因此,我們預計該書不會發生重大變化,從而達到我們對今年餘下時間的銷售的預期。
If we compare ourselves to last year which was incredibly warm.
如果我們將自己與去年相比,那一年非常溫暖。
And our focus last year was on liquidating inventories.
我們去年的重點是清算庫存。
We just had too much.
我們只是吃太多了。
So, we think this year we're in a better position from an inventory perspective, quality of inventory and our expectations are for a more normal year, especially in the US.
因此,我們認為,從庫存角度、庫存品質來看,今年我們處於更好的位置,我們預計今年會更加正常,尤其是在美國。
So I don't know if we can get all the way to growth for the full year based on our Q4 estimates for now, but we're certainly expecting to be to have an improved Q4 against last year.
因此,我不知道根據我們目前對第四季的預測,我們是否能夠實現全年的一路成長,但我們當然期望第四季的業績會比去年有所改善。
And then as it relates to spring '25, we've got a high percentage of our order book something in the neighborhood of 90% already in hand.
然後,由於與 25 年春季相關,我們的訂單中很大一部分已經在手,大約 90% 左右。
And that indicates that we're going to have growth for the year including growth in North American wholesale.
這表明我們今年將實現成長,包括北美批發業務的成長。
Bob Drbul - Analyst
Bob Drbul - Analyst
Got it.
知道了。
Okay.
好的。
And then on the gross margin, I guess, just -- can you expand a bit more around the freight just in terms of what you're seeing?
然後,在毛利率方面,我想,根據您所看到的情況,您能否在貨運方面進一步擴大一點?
You gave some color around it, but just sort of more within the last few months and the last few weeks any sort of developments and how that has impacted your business if it has at all?
您對此做了一些說明,但只是在過去幾個月和過去幾週內發生了更多變化,以及這對您的業務有何影響(如果有的話)?
Timothy Boyle - Chairman of the Board, President, Chief Executive Officer
Timothy Boyle - Chairman of the Board, President, Chief Executive Officer
Certainly.
當然。
Well, we've noted the impact on deliveries as it relates to the Red Sea issue.
嗯,我們已經注意到與紅海問題有關的對交付的影響。
And those issues are contemplated in our guidance that we gave you today.
我們今天向您提供的指南中考慮了這些問題。
As it relates to rates we have seen some pressure on rates.
由於與利率相關,我們看到利率面臨一些壓力。
We have contracts in place with high quality curators that are keeping their contracts.
我們與高品質的策展人簽訂了合同,他們也遵守了合約。
And our expectations are that the impact of rate changes as it relates on the back half of the year are contemplated in our guidance.
我們的預期是,我們的指導中考慮了與今年下半年相關的利率變化的影響。
So we're not expecting big changes.
因此,我們預計不會發生重大變化。
But that's based on today we think we're in good shape.
但這是基於今天我們認為我們狀態良好。
We've got a fairly good percentage of our merchandise already delivered into our warehouses.
我們有相當大比例的商品已經交付到我們的倉庫。
And freight will be probably a constant issue for the balance of this year, especially with the continuing at the Red Sea issue.
貨運可能將成為今年剩餘時間的持續問題,特別是在紅海問題持續存在的情況下。
Bob Drbul - Analyst
Bob Drbul - Analyst
Great.
偉大的。
Thanks, Tim.
謝謝,蒂姆。
Operator
Operator
Laurent Vasilescu from BNP Paribas.
法國巴黎銀行的洛朗·瓦西萊斯庫。
Laurent Vasilescu - Analyst
Laurent Vasilescu - Analyst
Good afternoon.
午安.
Thank you so much for taking my question.
非常感謝您回答我的問題。
I wanted to ask about the Red Sea.
我想問一下紅海的事。
We've heard a number of retailers talk about the potential delays of inventories.
我們聽到許多零售商談論庫存的潛在延遲。
I don't know, Tim, if you saw a shift between like, quarters, between 2Q into 3Q.
提姆,我不知道你是否看到了季度之間、第二季到第三季之間的轉變。
And if that's going to potentially trickle through into the fourth quarter?
這是否會持續到第四季?
Jim Swanson - Chief Financial Officer, Executive Vice President
Jim Swanson - Chief Financial Officer, Executive Vice President
Yeah, Laurent, this is Jim speaking.
是的,勞倫特,我是吉姆。
We have seen a slight shift as a result of some of the Red Sea delays.
由於紅海的一些延誤,我們看到了輕微的變化。
And again, we're the delays we're seeing in the week to two weeks zone.
再說一次,我們在一周到兩週的時間內看到了延誤。
So nothing overly meaningful.
所以沒有什麼太有意義的。
With that said, when we provided an outlook earlier this year, we thought the revenues would be relatively even from Q3 and Q4, you'll notice a slight shift out of the third quarter and into the fourth quarter for the outlook we're providing today.
話雖如此,當我們今年早些時候提供前景時,我們認為第三季度和第四季度的收入將相對均勻,您會注意到我們提供的前景從第三季度到第四季度略有變化今天。
And that's essentially reflective of some of those supply chain ways.
這本質上反映了其中一些供應鏈方式。
I should also mention that despite those delays in terms of our on-time in full percentages, they're still really high and we believe we'll be on time to market with our distribution.
我還應該提到,儘管我們的準時率出現了這些延遲,但它們仍然很高,我們相信我們的發行版將按時上市。
Laurent Vasilescu - Analyst
Laurent Vasilescu - Analyst
Okay.
好的。
That's very helpful, Jim.
這很有幫助,吉姆。
And Tim, I appreciate you commenting around spring order books that they're going to grow potentially for next year or at least they're up year-over-year from now.
提姆,我很感謝你對春季訂單的評論,即明年的訂單可能會增長,或者至少從現在開始逐年增長。
Can you maybe comment about to Bob's question, I think you answered from a geo perspective?
您能否對鮑伯的問題發表評論,我認為您是從地理角度回答的?
But can you kind of give us some commentary around how are you thinking about the brand early it's early for spring, but I know SOREL had a soft year, but with new leadership, how do we think about SOREL coming back to growth and potentially for the Columbia brand as well for spring 2025?
但是,您能否給我們一些評論,談談您如何看待這個品牌?成長潛力?
Timothy Boyle - Chairman of the Board, President, Chief Executive Officer
Timothy Boyle - Chairman of the Board, President, Chief Executive Officer
Certainly.
當然。
Well, first, I think if we look at spring '24 and the delta between that and prior periods, it was a strong focus on our customer base to get clean on any particular piece of apparel or footwear that might contain PFAS.
嗯,首先,我認為如果我們看看 24 年春季以及該時期與之前時期之間的增量,就會發現我們的客戶群非常注重清潔任何可能含有 PFAS 的特定服裝或鞋類。
So the focus was on getting clean and the spring '25 order book that we're looking at and it reflects reloading, to a certain extent, for those items.
因此,重點是清理和我們正在查看的 25 年春季訂單簿,它在一定程度上反映了這些商品的重新裝載。
And then globally, as we said, we had strong business happening in China and in Europe, both are big markets as well as other international markets around the world.
然後在全球範圍內,正如我們所說,我們在中國和歐洲都有強勁的業務,這兩個市場都是大市場以及世界各地的其他國際市場。
So, we're encouraged that we've got growth in the Columbia brand coming for spring '25.
因此,我們對 Columbia 品牌在 25 年春季的成長感到鼓舞。
As it relates to SOREL, as you know, we have new leadership there.
如您所知,與 SOREL 有關,我們在那裡有了新的領導層。
And from a historical perspective, the brand has always been much more heavily fall weighted.
從歷史的角度來看,該品牌一直更重視秋季。
The goal was to try and improve our business in the spring and summer.
目標是嘗試改善我們在春季和夏季的業務。
And we've made progress in that area, although Q2 is only generally about 10% of the company's of the brand's sales for the year.
我們在這方面已經取得了進展,儘管第二季度一般只占公司全年品牌銷售額的 10% 左右。
So we need to get better at a number of things, but I see significant investments being made there to improve the business in the spring and summer.
因此,我們需要在很多方面做得更好,但我看到在這方面進行了大量投資,以改善春季和夏季的業務。
Jim Swanson - Chief Financial Officer, Executive Vice President
Jim Swanson - Chief Financial Officer, Executive Vice President
Laurent, maybe I'll just close on that.
勞倫特,也許我就結束這個話題吧。
We still see it being down from the wholesale perspective in the first half of next year, certainly not to the extent that we've experienced here in the first half of '24 and then on both Mountain Hard Wear and prAna.
從批發的角度來看,我們仍然認為明年上半年會下滑,當然不會達到我們在 24 年上半年以及 Mountain Hard Wear 和 prAna 所經歷的程度。
We're still pleased to see nice growth coming from those two brands based on what we can see out of our order book currently.
根據我們目前從訂單中看到的情況,我們仍然很高興看到這兩個品牌的良好成長。
Laurent Vasilescu - Analyst
Laurent Vasilescu - Analyst
Okay.
好的。
Very helpful.
很有幫助。
If I could squeeze one more question on China.
請容許我再問一個關於中國的問題。
Obviously, lots of concerns around China like sportswear world now in the luxury world.
顯然,中國各地的許多關注點現在都在奢侈品界,例如運動裝界。
It seems like outerwear continues to hold really well.
看來外套還是很耐用。
I think China was up mid-teens.
我認為中國已經上升到十幾歲了。
Maybe if you could comment about what you're seeing in the marketplace there would be very helpful.
如果您能評論一下您在市場上看到的情況,也許會很有幫助。
Thank you.
謝謝。
Timothy Boyle - Chairman of the Board, President, Chief Executive Officer
Timothy Boyle - Chairman of the Board, President, Chief Executive Officer
Certainly.
當然。
Well, when we talk about China, it's against a business that was underperforming.
嗯,當我們談論中國時,我們談論的是表現不佳的企業。
So we've been able, with the teams that we have in place in China to improve our business.
因此,我們能夠透過我們在中國現有的團隊來改善我們的業務。
And so we expect continued growth there, not only in our own stores and e-com, but also in wholesale.
因此,我們預計,不僅在我們自己的商店和電子商務領域,而且在批發領域也將持續成長。
We're excited about the opportunities.
我們對這些機會感到興奮。
It's a huge market and we think we'll do very well there.
這是一個巨大的市場,我們認為我們會在那裡做得很好。
Laurent Vasilescu - Analyst
Laurent Vasilescu - Analyst
Okay.
好的。
Super helpful.
超有幫助。
Thank you very much and best of luck.
非常感謝您,祝您好運。
Operator
Operator
Alex Perry from Bank of America.
美國銀行的亞歷克斯·佩里。
Alex Perry - Analyst
Alex Perry - Analyst
Thanks for taking my questions.
感謝您回答我的問題。
I just wanted to follow up on an earlier line of question on the 4Q guide and the implied weighting there.
我只是想跟進之前關於第四季度指南的問題以及其中隱含的權重。
What is driving that?
是什麼推動了這一點?
Is that just easier comp in Red Sea delay?
這只是紅海延遲中更容易的補償嗎?
Or are you seeing different buying behavior from your wholesale partners, wanting to take inventory closer to need.
或者您發現批發合作夥伴的購買行為有所不同,希望庫存更接近需求。
Is there a slightly different D2C versus wholesale assumption there that would be great?
D2C 與批發假設是否有稍微不同的假設?
Thanks.
謝謝。
Timothy Boyle - Chairman of the Board, President, Chief Executive Officer
Timothy Boyle - Chairman of the Board, President, Chief Executive Officer
Sure.
當然。
Well, no, no changes of any significance on the timing of deliveries from our wholesale partners.
嗯,不,我們的批發合作夥伴的交貨時間沒有任何重大變化。
We do expect that the improved merchandise that we have available for these stores for the Columbia DTC stores against last year will be better and less liquidations.
我們確實預計,與去年相比,我們為這些商店提供的哥倫比亞 DTC 商店提供的改進商品將更好,並且清算更少。
Last year was really a focus on profitable liquidation of the high inventories that we had.
去年的重點實際上是我們對高庫存進行有利可圖的清算。
So that's the primary delta.
這就是主要的三角洲。
Jim Swanson - Chief Financial Officer, Executive Vice President
Jim Swanson - Chief Financial Officer, Executive Vice President
Yeah.
是的。
And I would just add, I mean, obviously, we're coming into the latter part of this year with much healthier inventory that Tim touched on.
我想補充一點,我的意思是,顯然,我們將進入今年下半年,蒂姆提到的庫存要健康得多。
And then we planned the business for more normalized weather.
然後我們為天氣更加正常化製定了業務計劃。
Of course, when you look at the fourth quarter of last year it was unseasonably warm and there's no doubt that, that had some impact on consumer demand.
當然,去年第四季異常溫暖,毫無疑問這對消費者需求產生了一些影響。
So with a more normalized approach this year coupled with the factors that Tim touched on that's where we've projected some degree of growth in the fourth quarter.
因此,透過今年更加標準化的方法,再加上蒂姆提到的因素,我們預計第四季會出現一定程度的成長。
Alex Perry - Analyst
Alex Perry - Analyst
Perfect.
完美的。
That's really helpful.
這真的很有幫助。
And then just my follow-up is on the gross margins.
然後我的後續行動是毛利率。
Just the difference versus the prior guide.
只是與之前的指南有所不同。
Can you just walk us through that a little bit more.
能幫我們再介紹一下嗎?
Is it the freight surcharge?
是運費附加費嗎?
Is there a bit more promo sort of contemplated in there?
那裡有更多的促銷活動嗎?
Just anything there would be great..
任何東西都會很棒..
Thank you.
謝謝。
Jim Swanson - Chief Financial Officer, Executive Vice President
Jim Swanson - Chief Financial Officer, Executive Vice President
Yes, certainly, the most significant driver of that.
是的,當然,這是最重要的驅動因素。
And we saw a part of this in the second quarter was the need to spur a bit more demand and move through certain of our excess inventory and continue clearing that inventory.
我們在第二季度看到其中的一部分原因是需要刺激更多的需求並清理某些過剩庫存並繼續清理庫存。
And as a result, we were a bit more promotional and had more markdowns in our direct-to-consumer channel.
因此,我們在直接面向消費者的管道中進行了更多的促銷和降價。
So that's what drove the second quarter.
這就是第二季的推動因素。
And then in light of that in terms of how we've looked at the back half of the year, we made a similar adjustment.
然後根據我們對下半年的看法,我們做了類似的調整。
I would say to a far lesser degree, is it a reflection of what we're seeing from an ocean freight standpoint.
我想說的是,在較小程度上,這是否反映了我們從海運角度看到的情況。
Certainly, to Tim's point, ocean freight rates are up.
當然,在提姆看來,海運費漲了。
But with the contracts we've got in place, we've made certain assumptions regarding that including any type of surcharge that we might incur.
但根據我們已經簽訂的合同,我們做出了某些假設,包括我們可能產生的任何類型的附加費。
And believe that we've got that adequately covered.
並相信我們已經充分涵蓋了這一點。
But by and large, the change you're seeing in our gross margin outlook relates to just the competitive or the promotional environment that we're operating in currently.
但總的來說,您在我們的毛利率前景中看到的變化僅與我們目前所處的競爭或促銷環境有關。
Alex Perry - Analyst
Alex Perry - Analyst
That's really helpful.
這真的很有幫助。
Best of luck going forward.
祝你好運。
Operator
Operator
Mauricio Serna from UBS.
瑞銀集團 (UBS) 的 Mauricio Serna。
Mauricio Serna - Analyst
Mauricio Serna - Analyst
Great.
偉大的。
I wanted to hear more details about the Europe business seems to be holding up pretty strongly.
我想了解更多有關歐洲業務的細節,該業務似乎表現強勁。
Could you talk a little bit more about what you're seeing there in demand for the category and how the brand is positioned maybe in the in key markets?
您能否多談談您對該類別的需求以及該品牌在關鍵市場的定位?
And then on the temporary stores, any details on the performance in the quarter and contribution to the sales growth in the US?
那麼關於臨時店,本季的業績以及對美國銷售成長的貢獻有什麼細節嗎?
That will be super helpful.
這將非常有幫助。
Timothy Boyle - Chairman of the Board, President, Chief Executive Officer
Timothy Boyle - Chairman of the Board, President, Chief Executive Officer
Yes.
是的。
So my trip in Europe was the last week or so in June, I met with many of our biggest customers in Europe.
我的歐洲之行是六月的最後一周左右,我會見了我們在歐洲的許多最大的客戶。
And I think you just have to think about the brand in the context of our historical underperformance in that market.
我認為你只需要在我們在該市場歷史上表現不佳的背景下考慮這個品牌。
So we have a team there that's focused on building the brand and you're seeing now the results of their significant efforts.
因此,我們有一個團隊專注於打造品牌,您現在可以看到他們付出巨大努力的成果。
I would say that the brand awareness level has moved north, north meaning better especially in the markets of France, Germany and the UK where we're seeing terrific results.
我想說的是,品牌知名度水平已經向北移動,向北意味著更好,尤其是在法國、德國和英國市場,我們在這些市場上看到了出色的成果。
And we're seeing adoption by in a larger way by bigger customers.
我們看到更大的客戶以更大的方式採用。
So, I would say a combination of all those things including the fact that we're just getting we're getting much better business now.
所以,我想說的是所有這些事情的結合,包括我們剛剛獲得更好的業務。
With the brand is really resonating with the European consumer.
該品牌確實引起了歐洲消費者的共鳴。
As it relates to the temp stores, which are almost exclusively in the US We've opened those stores to help us to liquidate the -liquidate the inventories that the company accumulated during the pandemic and while they are not necessarily highly profitable stores, they're helping us to liquidate the inventories against a method that would otherwise produce much less operating margin.
因為它與臨時商店有關,這些商店幾乎全部在美國,我們開設這些商店是為了幫助我們清算公司在大流行期間積累的庫存,雖然它們不一定是高利潤的商店,但它們'我們正在幫助我們清算庫存,而這種方法否則會產生較少的營業利潤。
So the stores will be operated for a number of months until we believe we get the right size of our inventory and then we'll be closing them
因此,這些商店將運營數月,直到我們相信我們的庫存規模合適,然後我們將關閉它們
Jim Swanson - Chief Financial Officer, Executive Vice President
Jim Swanson - Chief Financial Officer, Executive Vice President
And Mauricio, I just emphasize in the case of the European business, our direct-to-consumer business we've seen robust growth in that part of our business across both e-commerce and the brick-and-mortar side.
毛里西奧,我只是強調,就歐洲業務而言,我們的直接面向消費者業務,我們在電子商務和實體方面都看到了這部分業務的強勁增長。
And then with regard to your question on the temp stores in terms of the contribution, we will get down to the level of quarterly level detail.
然後,關於您關於臨時商店貢獻方面的問題,我們將深入到季度級別的詳細資訊。
But in terms of just the magnitude, when you think about the year with 46 stores we're currently operating out through the end of the year, we've estimated that will be at around 2% of consolidated sales but to Tim's point, in terms of the operating margin contribution from these stores.
但就規模而言,當你考慮到今年年底我們目前經營的 46 家商店時,我們估計這將佔綜合銷售額的 2% 左右,但就蒂姆的觀點而言,這些商店的營業利潤貢獻。
It's there's really not much to speak of but it's obviously a far better outcome or vehicle to liquidate inventory than the alternative going through a more distressed closeout channel.
這確實沒什麼好說的,但與透過更困難的清倉管道相比,這顯然是一個更好的結果或清算庫存的工具。
Mauricio Serna - Analyst
Mauricio Serna - Analyst
Got it.
知道了。
And if I may just follow up very quickly on the guidance for the second half of the year.
如果我可以很快跟進下半年的指導。
I mean what kind of growth or yes, what kind of growth are you expecting or embedding in the US wholesale business compared to first half, which I think it was like down in the low 20s percentages?
我的意思是,與上半年相比,美國批發業務預計會出現什麼樣的增長,或者是的,你預計或會出現什麼樣的增長,我認為美國批發業務的百分比下降了 20 多歲?
Jim Swanson - Chief Financial Officer, Executive Vice President
Jim Swanson - Chief Financial Officer, Executive Vice President
Well, it's all reflective of what we're seeing in our wholesale order book.
嗯,這一切都反映了我們在批發訂單簿中看到的情況。
So our wholesale order book for the first half of the year was down below 20%.
所以我們上半年的批發訂單量就下降了20%以下。
Our fall '24 wholesale order book on a worldwide basis gives us the indication that our wholesale business to be down mid-single digit percent in the second half of the year.
我們的 24 年秋季全球批發訂單簿表明,今年下半年我們的批發業務將下降中個位數百分比。
And I believe our US wholesale business is relatively on par with that overall consolidated look of things.
我相信我們的美國批發業務與整體整合情況相當。
So, it still gives you a picture, a sequential improvement but we're still not quite back to the point of growth.
所以,它仍然給你一個畫面,一個連續的改進,但我們仍然沒有完全回到成長點。
There's the belief that we could maybe see some growth in the fourth quarter but part of that is just going to be some shifts in timing with some of the shipments going out a little bit more in the fourth quarter.
人們相信,我們可能會在第四季度看到一些成長,但其中一部分只是時間上的一些變化,一些出貨量在第四季會有所增加。
Mauricio Serna - Analyst
Mauricio Serna - Analyst
Got it.
知道了。
And is it just because you have like the PFAS like materials already out?
只是因為你們已經有像 PFAS 這樣的材料了嗎?
Or like how come like there's a sequential improvement in the US yes, wholesale?
或者說美國為什麼會出現連續性改善,是的,批發?
Timothy Boyle - Chairman of the Board, President, Chief Executive Officer
Timothy Boyle - Chairman of the Board, President, Chief Executive Officer
Well, we're expecting that the weather will be more normalized.
嗯,我們預計天氣會更加正常化。
And so that will give us some additional revenue plus the composition of our own DTC stores last year was very high percentage of liquidation merchandise and not necessarily an optimal merchandising mix.
因此,這將為我們帶來一些額外的收入,加上去年我們自己的 DTC 商店的清倉商品比例非常高,而且不一定是最佳的商品組合。
So that's improved this year.
所以今年情況有所改善。
So our expectations are for the guidance that we've given you today, we're comfortable with that.
因此,我們的期望是我們今天給你們的指導,我們對此感到滿意。
Jim Swanson - Chief Financial Officer, Executive Vice President
Jim Swanson - Chief Financial Officer, Executive Vice President
Yes.
是的。
Mauricio, keep in mind with that order book in hand, the assumptions that we place on top of that are cancels, reorders, replenishment, and we've approached that similarly to what we would do in an average year.
毛里西奧,請記住手頭上的訂單簿,我們在此之上的假設是取消、重新訂購、補貨,我們的處理方式與平常年份的做法類似。
So I don't think we've been overly aggressive or overly conservative in our approach.
所以我認為我們的方法並沒有過於激進或過於保守。
We're taking the middle of the road approach to how we've planned the business.
我們正在採取中間路線來規劃業務。
Mauricio Serna - Analyst
Mauricio Serna - Analyst
Thanks, and congratulations on the results.
謝謝,並祝賀結果。
Operator
Operator
John Kernan from TD Cowen.
TD Cowen 的 John Kernan。
Alex Douglas - Analyst
Alex Douglas - Analyst
Hi, this is Alex Douglas on for John.
大家好,我是約翰的亞歷克斯·道格拉斯。
Thanks for taking our question.
感謝您提出我們的問題。
So my question was just about how should we think about modeling inventory dollars for the balance of fiscal '24?
所以我的問題是我們應該如何考慮為 24 財年的餘額建模庫存美元?
And then related to that, just more of a clarifying point, like where are you guys at with some of the inventory clearance measures?
與此相關的是,更多的澄清一點,例如你們對一些庫存清理措施的進展如何?
Are those completely done?
這些都徹底完成了嗎?
Do you anticipate that bleeding into Q3 at all?
您預計第三季會出現這種情況嗎?
Timothy Boyle - Chairman of the Board, President, Chief Executive Officer
Timothy Boyle - Chairman of the Board, President, Chief Executive Officer
But let me give you just a very high-level approach and shifted and modified as necessary.
但讓我給你一個非常高層次的方法,並根據需要進行調整和修改。
So we think that we can get the business to three turns annually, which means we can run the business on a lot less important than we have them.
因此,我們認為我們可以將業務每年輪換三輪,這意味著我們可以在比我們擁有的重要得多的情況下經營業務。
And so the goal is to continue to liquidate inventories profitably to get ourselves in the right level of inventory to be in the area of three turns annually.
因此,我們的目標是繼續有利地清算庫存,使我們的庫存處於每年三週轉的正確水平。
So that's that's our goal.
這就是我們的目標。
And we see a path towards that, which is based on a number of things, not the least of which is the automation that we've put into the inventory management systems here.
我們看到了一條實現這一目標的道路,它基於很多事情,其中最重要的是我們在庫存管理系統中引入的自動化。
Jim Swanson - Chief Financial Officer, Executive Vice President
Jim Swanson - Chief Financial Officer, Executive Vice President
Yes.
是的。
I think just to add to that, with just being said, 3x turns.
我想補充一點,剛才說過,3 圈。
It's going to take us some time to do that.
我們需要一些時間才能做到這一點。
That's over the course of the next few years.
這是未來幾年的事。
I think if you look on a trailing 12-month basis.
我想如果你看看過去 12 個月的情況。
Our turns are 2.2 times.
我們的回合是2.2次。
I would anticipate we are forecasting for that to improve.
我預計我們預計這一情況會有所改善。
Over the course of the balance of this year, certainly, we'll be at 3times this year.
當然,在今年剩下的時間裡,我們今年將達到 3 倍。
Having said that, we continue to plan for our business to be down in inventory at the end of the year.
話雖如此,我們仍計劃在年底降低我們業務的庫存。
So sequentially, you'll see the rate of decline in our inventory balance decrease, but we still anticipate increasing at the end of the year.
因此,您會依次看到我們的庫存餘額下降率下降,但我們仍然預計年底會增加。
And as it relates to clearance activity in the second half, we are in much healthier shape as we sit here today in comparison to where we were a year ago.
由於與下半年的清倉活動有關,與一年前相比,我們今天坐在這裡的狀態要健康得多。
And hence, you see an improvement in our gross margins in the back half of this year.
因此,今年下半年我們的毛利率有所改善。
While at the same time, we do need to continue working through certain of the inventory that we have that remained on hand that add PFAS chemistry in it.
同時,我們確實需要繼續處理我們手頭上剩餘的某些庫存,以在其中添加 PFAS 化學物質。
So we'll continue to operate these temporary clearance stores and other means of being able to work through that inventory in the coming months.
因此,我們將繼續經營這些臨時清倉店和其他方式,以便在未來幾個月內處理庫存。
Alex Douglas - Analyst
Alex Douglas - Analyst
That's very helpful.
這非常有幫助。
Thanks.
謝謝。
Operator
Operator
(Operator Instructions)
(操作員說明)
Jim Duffy, Stifel.
吉姆·達菲,斯蒂菲爾。
Jim Duffy - Analyst
Jim Duffy - Analyst
Thank you for taking my questions and a lot of crosscurrents in any comparisons consider I'm curious, based on what you're seeing in the DTC channel and wholesale with wholesale sell-throughs.
感謝您提出我的問題,根據您在 DTC 管道和批發與批發銷售中看到的情況,我認為我很好奇任何比較中的大量交叉流。
Broadly speaking, are there any detectable changes in US consumer behavior that you've seen in recent months or things?
從廣義上講,您在最近幾個月或其他事情中看到美國消費者行為有任何可察覺的變化嗎?
Would it cause you to kind of second-guess the outlook for the back half of the year?
這是否會讓您對下半年的前景產生二次猜測?
Timothy Boyle - Chairman of the Board, President, Chief Executive Officer
Timothy Boyle - Chairman of the Board, President, Chief Executive Officer
Well, we have a fairly good track record of being able to be highly efficient in our predictability.
嗯,我們在能夠有效率地進行預測方面有著相當良好的記錄。
And I guess I would say if there's an overall trend, it's that the consumers tend to be very cautious in their spending.
我想我會說,如果有一個整體趨勢的話,那就是消費者在消費方面往往非常謹慎。
And it actually helps us in many respects the values that we have in our merchandise are much greater than many of our competitors.
它實際上在許多方面對我們有幫助,我們的商品價值比許多競爭對手高得多。
Jim Duffy - Analyst
Jim Duffy - Analyst
Okay.
好的。
And Tim, I wanted to ask just about the state of the North American outdoor channel.
提姆,我想問北美戶外頻道的狀況。
It's been a challenged channel for many brands.
對於許多品牌來說,這是一個充滿挑戰的管道。
Given the state of the marketplace, what are the -- based on what you see right now, what are the prospects for a more normalized or more buoyant demand trends from that key channel?
鑑於市場狀況,根據您現在所看到的情況,該關鍵管道的更加正常化或更活躍的需求趨勢的前景是什麼?
Timothy Boyle - Chairman of the Board, President, Chief Executive Officer
Timothy Boyle - Chairman of the Board, President, Chief Executive Officer
Yeah.
是的。
It's difficult, Jim, to understand sometimes what's happening whether it's an impact of broader competitors across the marketplace?
吉姆,有時很難理解正在發生的事情是否是市場上更廣泛的競爭對手的影響?
Whether it's a reduction in demand for specifically outdoor products?
是否是對特定戶外產品的需求減少?
But regardless of what the impact is on the reduced demand, we've got a balance sheet which allows us to make investments when others can't and to do to operate the business in a meaningfully different way than other competitors.
但無論需求減少會產生什麼影響,我們的資產負債表都使我們能夠在其他人無法進行投資時進行投資,並以與其他競爭對手截然不同的方式經營業務。
So our expectations are that we're going to be the survivor and continue to grow, gain market share based on our ability financially to make these investments.
因此,我們的期望是,我們將成為倖存者並繼續成長,根據我們進行這些投資的財務能力獲得市場份額。
Jim Duffy - Analyst
Jim Duffy - Analyst
Helpful.
有幫助。
And last one for me.
最後一張給我。
The early commentary on the spring order book, that's very encouraging.
關於春季訂單的早期評論非常令人鼓舞。
I think this is earlier than you typically offer perspective on orders.
我認為這比您通常提供的訂單觀點要早。
I'm curious like at this juncture, how much of that visibility in that spring order book do you have how much of it's booked versus what you would think would be typical going into the actual spring season?
我很好奇,在這個節骨眼上,您在春季訂單簿中的可見度有多少,與您認為進入實際春季的典型情況相比,您的預訂量有多少?
Timothy Boyle - Chairman of the Board, President, Chief Executive Officer
Timothy Boyle - Chairman of the Board, President, Chief Executive Officer
Yeah, I think we're generally on par with where we have been historically.
是的,我認為我們總體上與歷史上的水平相當。
We wanted to make sure that investors knew that we have growth in our future.
我們希望確保投資者知道我們的未來將會成長。
I think we're probably in the neighborhood of 90% booked on our order book.
我認為我們的訂單簿上的預訂量可能接近 90%。
Jim Swanson - Chief Financial Officer, Executive Vice President
Jim Swanson - Chief Financial Officer, Executive Vice President
That's [90%] plus, Jim, which is pretty typical.
這是[90%]以上,吉姆,這是非常典型的。
As Tim touched on, at this point in time.
正如蒂姆所說,此時此刻。
Jim Duffy - Analyst
Jim Duffy - Analyst
Excellent.
出色的。
Well, thank you, guys.
嗯,謝謝你們,夥計們。
Operator
Operator
Thank you.
謝謝。
There are no further questions in the queue.
隊列中沒有其他問題。
Timothy Boyle - Chairman of the Board, President, Chief Executive Officer
Timothy Boyle - Chairman of the Board, President, Chief Executive Officer
Well, thank you for listening, and we're expecting great things in the future and there's lots of opportunity for the Company.
好的,感謝您的聆聽,我們期待未來的美好事物,公司有很多機會。
So, thank you very much and look forward to talking to you about 90 days.
所以,非常感謝您,並期待與您交談約 90 天。
Operator
Operator
Thank you, everyone.
謝謝大家。
This concludes today's event.
今天的活動到此結束。
You may disconnect at this time, and have a wonderful day.
此時您可能會斷開連接,並度過美好的一天。
Thank you for your participation.
感謝您的參與。