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Operator
Operator
Greetings. Welcome to the Columbia Sportswear Third Quarter 2023 Financial Results Conference Call. (Operator Instructions)
問候。歡迎參加 Columbia Sportswear 2023 年第三季財務業績電話會議。 (操作員說明)
Please note, this conference is being recorded. I will now turn the conference over to your host, Andrew Burns, you may begin.
請注意,本次會議正在錄製中。現在我將把會議交給主持人安德魯·伯恩斯(Andrew Burns),您可以開始了。
Andrew Shuler Burns - Director of IR & Competitive Intelligence
Andrew Shuler Burns - Director of IR & Competitive Intelligence
Good afternoon, and thanks for joining us to discuss Columbia Sportswear Company's third quarter results. In addition to the earnings release, we furnished an 8-K containing a detailed CFO commentary and financial review presentation explaining our results. This document is also available on our Investor Relations website, investor.columbia.com.
下午好,感謝您加入我們討論哥倫比亞運動服裝公司第三季業績。除了收益發布之外,我們還提供了一份 8-K,其中包含詳細的財務長評論和解釋我們結果的財務審查簡報。文件也可在我們的投資者關係網站 Investor.columbia.com 上取得。
With me today on the call are Chairman, President and Chief Executive Officer, Tim Boyle; Executive Vice President and Chief Financial Officer, Jim Swanson; and Executive Vice President and Chief Administrative Officer and General Counsel, Peter Bragdon.
今天與我一起參加電話會議的有董事長、總裁兼執行長 Tim Boyle;執行副總裁兼財務長吉姆‧斯旺森;執行副總裁兼首席行政官兼總法律顧問 Peter Bragdon。
This conference call will contain forward-looking statements regarding Columbia's expectations, anticipations or beliefs about the future. These statements are expressed in good faith and are believed to have a reasonable basis. However, each forward-looking statement is subject to many risks and uncertainties, and actual results may differ materially from what is projected.
本次電話會議將包含有關哥倫比亞對未來的期望、預期或信念的前瞻性聲明。這些陳述是善意表達的,並被認為有合理的基礎。然而,每項前瞻性陳述都面臨許多風險和不確定性,實際結果可能與預測有重大差異。
Many of these risks and uncertainties are described in Columbia's SEC filings. We caution that forward-looking statements are inherently less reliable than historical information. We do not undertake any duty to update any of the forward-looking statements after the date of this conference call to conform the forward-looking statements to actual results or to changes in our expectations.
哥倫比亞向美國證券交易委員會提交的文件中描述了許多這些風險和不確定性。我們提醒您,前瞻性陳述本質上不如歷史資訊可靠。我們不承擔在本次電話會議日期後更新任何前瞻性陳述以使前瞻性陳述與實際結果或我們的預期變化保持一致的責任。
I'd also like to point out that during the call, we may reference certain non-GAAP financial measures, including constant currency net sales. For further information about non-GAAP financial measures and results, including a reconciliation of GAAP to non-GAAP measures and an explanation of management's rationale for referencing these non-GAAP measures, please refer to the supplemental financial information section and financial tables included in our earnings release and the appendix of our CFO commentary and financial review.
我還想指出,在電話會議期間,我們可能會參考某些非公認會計準則財務指標,包括固定匯率淨銷售額。有關非 GAAP 財務指標和結果的更多信息,包括 GAAP 與非 GAAP 指標的調整表以及管理層參考這些非 GAAP 指標的理由的解釋,請參閱我們的補充財務資訊部分和財務表格。收益發布以及我們財務長評論和財務審查的附錄。
Following our prepared remarks, we will host a Q&A period during which we will limit each caller to 2 questions, so we can get to everyone by the end of the hour.
在我們準備好的演講之後,我們將舉辦問答環節,在此期間我們將每個來電者最多提出 2 個問題,以便我們能夠在一小時結束前聯繫到每個人。
Now I'll turn the call over to Tim.
現在我將把電話轉給提姆。
Timothy P. Boyle - Chairman, CEO & President
Timothy P. Boyle - Chairman, CEO & President
Thanks, Andrew, and good afternoon. Third quarter results reflect a continuation of the trends we've experienced throughout 2023. Our international-direct markets continued to outperform the U.S. Within our DTC business, brick-and-mortar stores are performing better than the e-commerce channel. Economic and geopolitical uncertainty remains top of mind for consumers and retailers. Overall, we generated 3% net sales growth in the third quarter. Canada, Europe-direct and China all delivered high teens percent or better year-over-year growth. In the U.S. retailers continue to take a cautious approach to managing inventory levels and placing orders.
謝謝安德魯,下午好。第三季業績反映了我們在 2023 年經歷的趨勢的延續。我們的國際直銷市場繼續優於美國。在我們的 DTC 業務中,實體店的表現優於電子商務通路。經濟和地緣政治的不確定性仍然是消費者和零售商最關心的問題。總體而言,我們第三季的淨銷售額成長了 3%。加拿大、歐洲直航和中國均實現了百分之十幾或更好的年成長。在美國,零售商繼續採取謹慎的態度來管理庫存水準和下訂單。
Consumer demand for soft goods, including apparel, footwear remains weak. I'm pleased to report, the inventory exiting the quarter was down 16% year-over-year. Throughout the year, we've been executing on our inventory reduction plan. The combination of lower inventory buys, shipment of Fall '23 orders and increased excess inventory sales in our outlet stores has yielded substantial progress towards our goal. We've done this while generating healthy gross margins, which is a testament to the evergreen nature of our products.
消費者對服裝、鞋類等軟商品的需求仍然疲軟。我很高興地報告,本季庫存年減 16%。全年,我們一直在執行庫存削減計劃。較低的庫存採購、23 年秋季訂單的發貨以及我們直銷店的超額庫存銷售增加,這些因素相結合,在實現我們的目標方面取得了實質進展。我們在做到這一點的同時創造了健康的毛利率,這證明了我們產品的常青性質。
We have a clear path to achieving our goal of reducing year-end inventory by over $200 million compared to this year. As we head into our peak sales period, I'm excited about the brand activations in place for this holiday season. For Columbia, Omni-Heat Infinity continues to be one of the fastest-growing parts of our business and is prominently featured in our marketing campaigns this season.
我們有明確的途徑來實現年終庫存比今年減少 2 億美元以上的目標。當我們進入銷售高峰期時,我對這個假期的品牌活化感到興奮。對於 Columbia 來說,Omni-Heat Infinity 仍然是我們業務成長最快的部分之一,並且在我們本季的行銷活動中佔據顯著位置。
In addition to our innovative warming technologies, the Columbia brand is executing several collabs, including the recently launched 100th Anniversary Disney Collection inspired by Disney's vintage artwork.
除了我們創新的暖化技術之外,哥倫比亞品牌還開展了多項合作,包括最近推出的迪士尼 100 週年系列,靈感來自迪士尼的復古藝術品。
In the coming days, we will launch our latest Star Wars collection, featuring Luke Skywalker's iconic flight suit reimagined as a fully equipped ski collection. To promote the launch, we will be leveraging Columbia Brand Ambassador Bubba Wallace as well as a top Jedi Master. You'll be able to find the content on our social media channels.
在接下來的幾天裡,我們將推出最新的星際大戰系列,其中包括盧克天行者的標誌性飛行服,經過重新設計,成為裝備齊全的滑雪系列。為了宣傳此次發布,我們將利用哥倫比亞品牌大使布巴華萊士以及頂級絕地大師。您將能夠在我們的社交媒體頻道上找到這些內容。
To celebrate the 50th anniversary of the iconic Caribou boot, SOREL recently opened 20 shop-in-shops at Nordstroms, featuring key fall styles and unique 3D SOREL polar bears created by local artists in each market. SOREL also recently opened a bold new Brooklyn pop-up store featuring exclusive styles and interactive brand experiences.
為了慶祝標誌性 Caribou 靴子問世 50 週年,SOREL 最近在 Nordstroms 開設了 20 家店中店,主打秋季主打款式以及由每個市場當地藝術家創作的獨特 3D SOREL 北極熊。 SOREL 最近還在布魯克林開設了一家大膽的新快閃店,以獨特的風格和互動的品牌體驗為特色。
This fall Mountain Hardwear launched its Seek Wilder Paths campaign, which reflects a comprehensive brand refresh. mountainhardwear.com has been redesigned and enhanced to bring the brand's unique identity to life. To celebrate the brand's 30th anniversary, Mountain Hardwear released a heritage collection celebrating its most iconic styles. Mountain Hardwear also released a highly sought after collab with the iconic streetwear brand Stussy.
今年秋天,Mountain Hardwear 推出了「Seek Wilder Paths」活動,體現了品牌的全面更新。 mountainhardwear.com 經過重新設計和增強,使該品牌的獨特身份栩栩如生。為了慶祝品牌成立 30 週年,Mountain Hardwear 發布了一個傳統系列,慶祝其最具標誌性的風格。 Mountain Hardwear 也與標誌性街頭服飾品牌 Stussy 推出了備受追捧的聯名款。
As you can see, we have a great lineup of brand and marketing activations plan to engage consumers and drive sales this season. We now await the arrival of cold weather. The last several weeks have been unseasonably warm, resulting in a slower start to the fall selling season. Based on third quarter performance and a more cautious forecast for the remainder of the year, we are lowering our net sales outlook. Despite this net sales reduction, our diluted earnings per share range is moving slightly higher reflecting a relatively unchanged margin outlook and a lower effective tax rate. I'll provide more details on our 2023 financial outlook and initial 2024 commentary later in the call.
正如您所看到的,我們有一系列強大的品牌和行銷活動計劃來吸引消費者並推動本季的銷售。現在我們等待寒冷天氣的到來。過去幾週異常溫暖,導致秋季銷售季節開始較慢。根據第三季的業績以及對今年剩餘時間的更加謹慎的預測,我們下調了淨銷售額預期。儘管淨銷售額減少,但我們的稀釋每股收益範圍略有上升,反映出利潤前景相對不變和有效稅率較低。我將在稍後的電話會議中提供有關 2023 年財務展望和 2024 年初步評論的更多詳細資訊。
I'll now review our third quarter financial performance. Net sales of $986 million were up 3% year-over-year. Net sales growth was balanced across our direct-to-consumer and wholesale businesses. Within wholesale, the approximate impact of timing shifts resulted in a $30 million benefit to net sales when compared to the third quarter of last year. This was relatively in line with our expectations heading into the quarter.
我現在將回顧我們第三季的財務表現。淨銷售額為 9.86 億美元,年增 3%。我們的直接面向消費者和批發業務的淨銷售額成長保持平衡。在批發領域,與去年第三季相比,時間變化的大致影響導致淨銷售額增加了 3,000 萬美元。這與我們進入本季的預期相對一致。
Gross margin expanded 70 basis points as lower inbound freight costs and favorable channel mix more than offset our inventory reductions across both wholesale and DTC.
由於入境貨運成本降低和有利的通路組合抵消了我們批發和 DTC 的庫存減少,毛利率擴大了 70 個基點。
SG&A expenses increased 10%, primarily driven by expense growth across our DTC business, demand creation investments and supply chain. Diluted earnings per share decreased 6% to $1.70.
SG&A 費用增加了 10%,主要是由於我們的 DTC 業務、需求創造投資和供應鏈的費用增長所致。稀釋後每股收益下降 6% 至 1.70 美元。
I'll now review third quarter year-over-year net sales growth by region. For this review, I'll reference constant currency growth rates. U.S. net sales increased 5%. U.S. wholesale increased mid-single-digit percent driven in large part by on-time Fall '23 shipments relative to late deliveries last year.
我現在將按地區回顧第三季度的年淨銷售額增長情況。在本次評論中,我將參考恆定的貨幣成長率。美國淨銷售額成長 5%。美國批發量增長了中個位數百分比,這在很大程度上是由於 23 年秋季按時發貨(相對於去年延遲發貨)。
U.S. DTC net sales increased low single-digit percent. Brick-and-mortar was up mid-single-digit percent driven by the contribution from new stores opened over the last year as well as incremental sales from temporary outlet stores. The U.S. e-commerce net sales were down high single-digit percent. The online environment remains competitive and promotional.
美國 DTC 淨銷售額增幅較低,個位數百分比。受去年開設的新店以及臨時直銷店銷售額增量的推動,實體店增長了中個位數。美國電子商務淨銷售額下降了高個位數百分比。線上環境仍然具有競爭性和促銷性。
Latin America, Asia Pacific region or LAAP, net sales increased 4%. China net sales increased mid-20%, reflecting strong consumer demand across all channels. Our team in China has done an excellent job of driving engagement with consumers in new ways that are authentic to Columbia.
拉丁美洲、亞太地區或LAAP,淨銷售額成長4%。中國的淨銷售額成長了 20%,反映出所有通路的強勁消費需求。我們在中國的團隊在以哥倫比亞獨有的新方式推動與消費者的互動方面做得非常出色。
During the quarter, we introduced new fall styles to our popular transit product line or premium China-specific product collection. The transit line was prominently featured in our latest brand campaign in China, which included a new brand ambassador and in-person and online brand experiences.
本季度,我們為廣受歡迎的交通產品系列或中國特有的優質產品系列推出了新的秋季款式。公車路線在我們在中國最新的品牌活動中佔據了顯著位置,其中包括新的品牌大使以及面對面和線上品牌體驗。
In October, we built an entire Columbia brand nature exploration experience at Shanghai's Grand Gateway model. The installation featured 4 specific sectors, beach, cloud, glacier and Jungle. Within each of these microclimates, consumers were able to learn about Columbia's warm, dry, cool and protected innovations and experience them in action.
10月,我們在上海港匯廣場打造了完整的哥倫比亞品牌自然探索體驗。裝置有 4 個特定區域:海灘、雲、冰川和叢林。在每一個小氣候中,消費者都能夠了解哥倫比亞的溫暖、乾燥、涼爽和受保護的創新,並體驗它們的實際應用。
Our digital team brought the outdoors to consumers digitally by launching a Columbia brand virtual reality homepage on Tmall. This immersive outdoor visual experience drove great traffic and consumer brand engagement on the site. I believe the investments we've made in China, to elevate talent and drive operational improvements, are yielding results. China is expected to be one of our fastest-growing markets this year, and we're well positioned looking into the future.
我們的數位團隊透過在天貓推出哥倫比亞品牌虛擬實境首頁,以數位方式將戶外活動帶給消費者。這種身臨其境的戶外視覺體驗為網站帶來了巨大的流量和消費者品牌參與度。我相信我們在中國為培養人才和推動營運改善而進行的投資正在產生成果。預計中國將成為我們今年成長最快的市場之一,展望未來,我們已做好充分準備。
Japan net sales increased low teens percent, aided by earlier shipments of Fall '23 orders and DTC growth. This fall, our team in Japan is connected with consumers to reinforce our heritage through high collections and events.
由於 23 年秋季訂單的早期發貨和 DTC 的增長,日本淨銷售額增長了百分之十幾。今年秋天,我們在日本的團隊與消費者建立聯繫,透過高端系列和活動強化我們的傳統。
We're also driving energy through locally relevant partnerships like the recently launched collab with Tokyo-based clothing brand Beams, inspired by one of PFG's first products, the iconic multi pocketed fishing vest, the collection fuses technical fishing aspects with Beams' style. The launch has garnered promising preorder results and is generating extensive media coverage.
我們也透過與當地相關的合作夥伴關係來推動活力,例如最近與東京服裝品牌Beams 推出的合作,靈感來自PFG 的首批產品之一,標誌性的多口袋釣魚背心,該系列融合了釣魚技術與Beams 的風格。此次發布獲得了可喜的預購結果,並引起了廣泛的媒體報導。
Korea net sales declined low 30% as we continue to reset the business for long-term growth in challenging market conditions.
由於我們在充滿挑戰的市場條件下繼續調整業務以實現長期成長,韓國淨銷售額下降了 30%。
As we outlined on the last call, management is focused on several multiyear initiatives across talent, distribution, marketing and product. This process includes closing unprofitable doors and nonbrand-enhancing wholesale accounts as we work to elevate distribution. We believe these efforts will drive a deeper connection with consumers and fuel sustainable growth. LAAP distributor markets were down mid-teens percent, reflecting on-time Fall '23 orders, which shifted the timing of sales into the second quarter.
正如我們在上次電話會議中所概述的那樣,管理層專注於人才、分銷、行銷和產品方面的多項多年計劃。這個過程包括關閉無利可圖的大門和非品牌提升的批發帳戶,同時我們努力提高分銷水平。我們相信這些努力將加深與消費者的聯繫並推動永續成長。 LAAP 經銷商市場下降了百分之十左右,反映了 23 年秋季訂單的準時交付,這將銷售時間推遲到了第二季。
Europe, Middle East and Africa or EMEA, net sales decreased 21%. Europe direct net sales increased mid-20%, benefiting from earlier shipment of Fall '23 product and robust DTC growth. Direct-to-consumer performance was driven by the addition of 7 new brick-and-mortar doors over the past year as well as strong e-commerce performance. As part of our strategy to elevate the Columbia brand experience at retail, we've opened 10 new shop-in-shops with Intersport in France and Germany this year.
歐洲、中東和非洲(即 EMEA)淨銷售額下降 21%。受益於 23 年秋季產品的提前發貨和 DTC 的強勁增長,歐洲直接淨銷售額增長了 20%。直接面向消費者的業績得益於去年新增的 7 家實體店以及強勁的電子商務業績。作為提升 Columbia 品牌零售體驗策略的一部分,今年我們與 Intersport 在法國和德國開設了 10 家新店中店。
These enhanced in-store displays secure space for the brand at an important strategic retail partner, while elevating the assortment presentation. Europe-direct has been one of the top-performing markets throughout 2023. Despite the positive momentum we're seeing, we anticipate external headwinds will be more impactful to growth in the quarters ahead.
這些增強的店內展示為該品牌在重要的戰略零售合作夥伴處保留了空間,同時提升了產品種類的展示。歐洲直航一直是 2023 年表現最好的市場之一。儘管我們看到了積極的勢頭,但我們預計外部阻力將對未來幾季的成長產生更大的影響。
Our EMEA distributor business declined high 80%, reflecting the anniversary of shipments to Russia as well as a greater portion of Fall '23 orders shipping in the second quarter.
我們的 EMEA 經銷商業務大幅下降 80%,這反映了向俄羅斯發貨的周年紀念以及 23 年秋季訂單的大部分在第二季度發貨。
Canada net sales were up 38%, driven by earlier shipment of fall '23 orders as well as strong DTC brick-and-mortar performance.
受 23 年秋季訂單提前發貨以及 DTC 實體店表現強勁的推動,加拿大淨銷售額增長了 38%。
Looking at performance by brand. Columbia brand net sales increased 4% during the quarter, including the benefit of earlier Fall '23 shipments. This fall, Columbia's lead innovation story is Omni-Heat Infinity, which remains one of the fastest-growing parts of our business.
按品牌查看業績。 Columbia 品牌本季淨銷售額成長了 4%,其中包括 23 年秋季早些時候出貨的收益。今年秋天,哥倫比亞的主要創新故事是 Omni-Heat Infinity,它仍然是我們業務中成長最快的部分之一。
We're building on last year's momentum with an expanded assortment including a new innovative Double Wall Elite construction. Double Wall Elite provides enhanced performance with 2 layers of Omni-Heat Infinity, which helps block wind and traps warmth. We are also expanding the assortment of Omni-Heat Helix, our disruptive poly-fleece technology. Our fall marketing campaign is establishing -- excuse me, is highlighting these differentiated innovations and continue to establish Columbia as the leader in keeping (inaudible) the campaign feature support across paid media, PR, social and e-commerce, including spots on Thursday night football and the first-ever NFL Black Friday game.
我們在去年的勢頭基礎上,擴大了產品種類,包括新的創新 Double Wall Elite 結構。 Double Wall Elite 透過 2 層 Omni-Heat Infinity 提供增強的性能,有助於阻擋風並保持溫暖。我們也擴大了 Omni-Heat Helix 的品種,這是我們的顛覆性聚絨技術。我們的秋季行銷活動正在建立——對不起,正在強調這些差異化創新,並繼續將哥倫比亞打造為保持(聽不清楚)付費媒體、公關、社交和電子商務(包括週四晚上的廣告)活動特色支持的領導者橄欖球和首場 NFL 黑色星期五比賽。
On the partnership front, we helped Disney celebrate their 100th anniversary with a new special edition collection, featuring Columbia gear inspired by vintage Disney artwork. Sell-through of this collection has been outstanding with key styles windbreakers selling out. In the coming days, we'll launch our latest Star Wars collection, what I believe will be our most exciting yet.
在合作方面,我們透過全新特別版系列幫助迪士尼慶祝成立 100 週年,其中包括受迪士尼復古藝術品啟發的哥倫比亞裝備。該系列的銷售情況非常出色,主要款式的風衣都已售罄。在接下來的幾天裡,我們將推出最新的星際大戰系列,我相信這將是我們迄今為止最令人興奮的系列。
Columbia and Lucasfilm's creative teams worked closely together to reimagine Luke Skywalker's iconic flight suit as a fully equipped ski collection. The styles incorporates our proprietary technologies so you can withstand the elements in galaxy or one far, far away. To promote the collection, the leveraging our sponsorship of NASCAR Team 23XI and driver Bubba Wallace. Bubba has had a career year at 23 advancing to the round of 12 in the playoffs and generating significant coverage for this monthly brand.
哥倫比亞和盧卡斯影業的創意團隊密切合作,將盧克天行者的標誌性飛行服重新構想為裝備齊全的滑雪系列。這些款式採用了我們的專有技術,因此您可以承受銀河系或遙遠的地方的元素。為了推廣系列,我們利用了對 NASCAR Team 23XI 和車手 Bubba Wallace 的贊助。布巴 (Bubba) 在 23 歲那年度過了職業生涯的一年,在季後賽中晉級 12 強,並為這個月刊品牌帶來了廣泛的報道。
Fans of Bubba, NASCAR and Star Wars will be particularly interested to tune in the NASCAR Cup Series Championship on November 5. In preparation for the race, Bubba listed the help of the top Jedi master who will make a surprise appearance in advance of a race.
布巴、納斯卡和星際大戰的粉絲們將特別有興趣收看11 月5 日舉行的納斯卡盃系列錦標賽。在準備比賽時,布巴列出了頂級絕地大師的幫助,他將在比賽前驚喜亮相。
In footwear, we launched the Facet 75 Alpha this fall. This modern waterproof hiker with trail-running DNA received a Men's Health 2023 sneaker award along with the PFG Pro Sport shoe. Footwear remains the largest category opportunity for the Columbia brand, and I'm excited about the product pipeline we have heading into next year.
在鞋類領域,我們在今年秋天推出了 Facet 75 Alpha。這款具有越野跑基因的現代防水健行鞋與 PFG Pro Sport 鞋一起榮獲「2023 年男士健康」運動鞋獎。鞋類仍然是哥倫比亞品牌最大的品類機會,我對我們明年即將推出的產品線感到興奮。
Before moving to our emerging brands portfolio, I'd like to welcome Woody Blackford to the Columbia brand team as our Chief Product Officer. Woody previously spent almost 14 years at Columbia. Woody spearheaded teams that brought to market some of Columbia's most innovative products and technologies. He invented Omni-Heat Reflective in 2010, which has been the foundation for billions in sales across the Omni-Heat collection. I believe his comprehensive understanding of Columbia and our consumers as well as his passion for product creation can help accelerate Columbia's growth around the globe. Welcome back, Woody.
在轉向我們的新興品牌組合之前,我謹歡迎伍迪布萊克福德 (Woody Blackford) 加入哥倫比亞品牌團隊,擔任我們的首席產品長。伍迪此前在哥倫比亞大學工作了近 14 年。伍迪領導的團隊將哥倫比亞一些最具創新性的產品和技術推向市場。他於 2010 年發明了 Omni-Heat Reflective,這是 Omni-Heat 系列銷售額數十億美元的基礎。我相信他對哥倫比亞和我們消費者的全面了解以及他對產品創造的熱情將有助於加速哥倫比亞在全球的發展。歡迎回來,伍迪。
Shifting to our emerging brand. SOREL brand net sales increased 9%, primarily driven by earlier Fall '23 shipments and higher wholesale closeout sales. This fall, the SOREL team is engaging with consumers and bringing products to life in new ways. The brand recently opened 20 shop-in-shops at Nordstrom to celebrate 50 years of the iconic Caribou boot and the launch of new Caribou X collection. Early-season sell-through at the shop-in-shops has been very encouraging. SOREL's new pop-up shop in Brooklyn includes an augmented reality experience where consumers can stand in front of a special mirror and see how they look at SOREL's unique styles. The brand also collaborated a singer Chloe Bailey on an exclusive Caribou act that was only available for purchase at the pop-up.
轉向我們的新興品牌。 SOREL 品牌淨銷售額成長 9%,主要受到 23 年秋季較早出貨和批發清倉銷售增加的推動。今年秋天,SOREL 團隊與消費者互動,以新的方式賦予產品生命。該品牌最近在 Nordstrom 開設了 20 家店中店,以慶祝標誌性 Caribou 靴子問世 50 週年,並推出全新 Caribou X 系列。店中店的早季銷售情況非常令人鼓舞。 SOREL 在布魯克林的新快閃店提供擴增實境體驗,消費者可以站在特殊的鏡子前,看看他們如何看待 SOREL 的獨特風格。該品牌還與歌手 Chloe Bailey 合作舉辦了一場獨家 Caribou 表演,只能在快閃店購買。
Mountain Hardwear net sales decreased 9%, driven by Fall '23 wholesale shipments, partially offset by DTC. This fall, Mountain Hardwear is celebrating its 30th anniversary. As part of the celebration, Mountain Hardwear launched its Seek Wilder Paths campaign, which reflects a comprehensive burning refresh. mountainhardwear.com has been redesigned and enhanced to bring the brands unique identity, purpose and tone of voice to life.
由於 23 年秋季批發貨量的推動,Mountain Hardwear 的淨銷售額下降了 9%,但被 DTC 部分抵消。今年秋天,Mountain Hardwear 將慶祝成立 30 週年。作為慶祝活動的一部分,Mountain Hardwear 推出了「Seek Wilder Paths」活動,體現了全面的燃燒刷新。 mountainhardwear.com 經過重新設計和增強,將品牌獨特的身份、宗旨和語氣帶入生活。
Mountain Hardwear also released a heritage collection celebrating its most iconic styles, including the Exposure Parka, Windstopper Tech Jacket and Subzero Down Jacket. These products pay homage to the brand's early style updated with today's fit and fabric technology.
Mountain Hardwear 也發布了傳統系列,慶祝其最具標誌性的款式,包括 Exposure 派克大衣、Windstopper Tech 夾克和 Subzero 羽絨夾克。這些產品向品牌的早期風格致敬,並採用當今的版型和布料技術進行了更新。
Mountain Hardwear collab with iconic streetwear brands Stussy featuring several co-branded products, including jackets, trousers and beanies as well as sleeping bags. The collection quickly sold out and meaningfully boosted traffic to Mountain Hardwear website.
Mountain Hardwear 與標誌性街頭服飾品牌 Stussy 合作推出多種聯名產品,包括夾克、褲子、無簷小便帽以及睡袋。該系列很快就售罄,並極大地增加了 Mountain Hardwear 網站的流量。
prAna net sales decreased 18% in the quarter. The product team remains focused on repositioning the brand for growth in future seasons.
prAna 本季淨銷售額下降 18%。產品團隊仍專注於重新定位品牌,以實現未來幾季的成長。
Brand President, Tricia Shumavon is quickly assessing prAna's opportunities and charting of that to unlock the brand's growth potential.
品牌總裁 Tricia Shumavon 正在快速評估 prAna 的機會並繪製圖表,以釋放品牌的成長潛力。
I'll now discuss our 2023 financial outlook. This outlook and commentary include forward-looking statements. Please see our CFO commentary and financial review presentations for additional details and disclosures related to these statements. For the fourth quarter, we expect sales to decline 5% to 10%, reflecting the wholesale sales shift into the third quarter compared to last year, partially offset by modest DTC growth.
我現在將討論我們 2023 年的財務前景。本展望與評論包含前瞻性陳述。請參閱我們的財務長評論和財務審查簡報,以了解與這些報表相關的更多詳細資訊和揭露資訊。對於第四季度,我們預計銷售額將下降 5% 至 10%,反映出與去年相比,批發銷售轉向第三季度,部分被 DTC 的溫和成長所抵銷。
Our fourth quarter net sales outlook incorporates a slow start to the fall selling season we have experienced a more cautious view on sales trends for the balance of the year. We're forecasting fourth quarter diluted earnings per share to be in the range of $1.93 to $2.18. For the full year, we now expect net sales growth to be in the range of 1.5% to 2%. Inclusive of a lower tax rate assumption, we forecast diluted earnings per share to be in the range of $4.45 to $4.70. We anticipate strong operating cash flow of approximately $500 million in 2023 as our inventory levels normalize.
我們第四季的淨銷售前景包括秋季銷售季節的緩慢開始,我們對今年剩餘時間的銷售趨勢持更加謹慎的看法。我們預計第四季度稀釋後每股收益將在 1.93 美元至 2.18 美元之間。對於全年,我們目前預計淨銷售額成長將在 1.5% 至 2% 之間。考慮到較低的稅率假設,我們預計稀釋後每股盈餘將在 4.45 美元至 4.70 美元之間。隨著我們的庫存水準正常化,我們預計 2023 年的營運現金流將強勁至約 5 億美元。
While it's early in our 2024 planning process, I'd like to provide some commentary on how we're thinking about the year ahead. I'm excited about the product pipeline and growth initiatives we have planned to fuel demand in 2024. For Spring '24, we launched Omni-Max, our latest performance innovation in footwear. This new platform provides versatile cushioning, enhanced stability and increased traction for hikers, trail-runners and explorers.
雖然我們的 2024 年規劃過程還處於初期,但我想就我們如何看待未來一年提供一些評論。我對我們計劃在 2024 年推動需求的產品線和成長計畫感到興奮。在 24 年春季,我們推出了 Omni-Max,這是我們在鞋類領域最新的性能創新產品。這個新平台為健行者、越野跑者和探險家提供了多功能緩衝、增強的穩定性和更大的牽引力。
In apparel, we continue to build out an industry lead portfolio of cooling and sun protection technologies. This spring we'll introduce Omni-Shade broad-spectrum airflow, offering exceptionally breathable sun protection with Omni-Wick evaporation for fast-drying next-to-skin comfort. We will continue to invest in Omni-Freeze ZERO Ice, our industry-leading cooling and moisture management technology. The sweat-activated cooling technology is featured in a number of styles and activity categories, helping to keep our consumers outdoor longer for all their pursuits.
在服裝領域,我們持續打造業界領先的冷卻和防曬技術組合。今年春天,我們將推出 Omni-Shade 廣譜氣流,透過 Omni-Wick 蒸發提供卓越透氣的防曬保護,實現快速乾燥、貼身舒適。我們將繼續投資 Omni-Freeze ZERO Ice,這是我們領先業界的冷卻和濕度管理技術。汗液啟動冷卻技術適用於多種款式和活動類別,有助於讓我們的消費者在戶外停留更長時間,實現他們的所有追求。
In our quest to find better ways to help humans to the outdoors, we look to nature to discover new innovations. For fall '24, we're launching an exciting new warming technology, Omni-Heat Arctic. This new biomimicry insulation system is inspired by how polar bears keep warm and extreme conditions. Omni-Heat Arctic starts with a translucent outer layer with less solar energy in. Heat has been transmitted to an insulation layer close to the body for maximum warm, mimicking the polar bear warmth protection system to result light weight, high efficient warmth boosted by solar power.
在尋找更好的方法來幫助人類進行戶外活動的過程中,我們向大自然尋求新的創新。 24 年秋季,我們將推出一項令人興奮的新型暖化技術:Omni-Heat Arctic。這種新型仿生隔熱系統的靈感來自於北極熊在極端條件下保暖的方式。 Omni-Heat Arctic 從半透明的外層開始,太陽能較少。熱量被傳輸到靠近身體的隔熱層,以實現最大程度的保暖,模仿北極熊的保暖系統,重量輕,透過太陽能實現高效保暖力量。
We're also investing in key franchises like PFG who has pioneered fishing apparel category and remains the leader today. Through product enhancements, marketing investments and reaching new consumers, we're focusing on expanding our leading role -- leading market share in the fishing category.
我們還投資了 PFG 等關鍵特許經營商,該公司是釣魚服裝類別的先驅,並且至今仍處於領先地位。透過產品改進、行銷投資和接觸新消費者,我們致力於擴大我們的領先地位——在釣魚類別中領先的市場份額。
To drive e-commerce growth and enhance the consumer experience, we're investing in capabilities to enrich content, increased personalization and optimize our membership program. We could make these types of investments during turbulent periods because of the strength of our diversified global business model and fortress balance sheet. We can invest in long-term growth opportunities at a time when financially constrained competitors cannot do so.
為了推動電子商務成長並增強消費者體驗,我們正在投資豐富內容、增強個人化和優化會員計畫的能力。由於我們多元化的全球業務模式和堡壘資產負債表的優勢,我們可以在動盪時期進行此類投資。當財務有限的競爭對手無法做到這一點時,我們可以投資長期成長機會。
Even with all the exciting product and growth initiatives planned for '24, we know there will be challenges, particularly in the first half of the year. Retailers continue to take a cautious approach to manage inventory levels and placing orders. Here's a slowing consumer demand as well as the persistence of higher interest rates create lingering economic uncertainty. The effect of these headwinds is most pronounced in the U.S. and we're starting to see similar conditions emerge in our Europe-direct markets and Canada. Geopolitical unrest is adding to this uncertainty.
儘管計劃在 24 年推出所有令人興奮的產品和成長計劃,但我們知道仍將面臨挑戰,特別是在今年上半年。零售商繼續採取謹慎的態度來管理庫存水準和下訂單。消費者需求放緩以及利率持續走高造成了揮之不去的經濟不確定性。這些不利因素的影響在美國最為明顯,我們開始看到歐洲直接市場和加拿大出現了類似的情況。地緣政治動盪加劇了這種不確定性。
As previously communicated, we're phasing our products design with PFAS chemicals across our global product line in 2024. Our intent is to stop manufacturing any apparel or footwear with PFAS prior to our Full '24 season.
如同先前所傳達的,我們將在 2024 年在全球產品線中逐步採用 PFAS 化學品進行產品設計。我們的目的是在 24 整個季節之前停止生產任何含有 PFAS 的服裝或鞋類。
In the U.S., we anticipate some retailers will choose to destock the PFAS styles for the first half of the year before loading in the new styles designed with PFAS free chemistry in Fall '24. This transition is expected to impact the flow of wholesale business and how we and manage through existing inventory. We also expect our footwear business to remain challenged through the first half of 2024. Outdoor footwear category trends remained soft and inventories remained high.
在美國,我們預計一些零售商將選擇在今年上半年減少 PFAS 款式的庫存,然後在 24 年秋季裝載採用不含 PFAS 化學物質設計的新款式。這項轉變預計將影響批發業務的流程以及我們如何管理現有庫存。我們也預計我們的鞋類業務到 2024 年上半年仍將面臨挑戰。戶外鞋類趨勢仍然疲軟,庫存仍然很高。
Our Spring '24 order book reflects the culmination of these challenges. As a result, we expect our global wholesale business to be down by a low double-digit percent in the first half of the year. We expect this wholesale decline will be partially offset by continued growth in our global DTC businesses, resulting in total first net sales declining a mid-single-digit percent.
我們的 24 年春季訂單反映了這些挑戰的頂峰。因此,我們預計今年上半年我們的全球批發業務將出現兩位數的低百分比下降。我們預計批發下降將被我們全球 DTC 業務的持續成長所部分抵消,從而導致首次淨銷售額總額下降中個位數百分比。
For the full year, we believe generating net sales growth is achievable as retail inventories -- inventory levels normalize and retailers seek to restock products, designed with PFAS free chemically. In the environment -- excuse me, in this environment, our objective is to modestly improve full year operating margin in '24. We plan to provide more detail on the '24 outlook when we announce fourth quarter results next February.
就全年而言,我們認為,隨著零售庫存水準的正常化以及零售商尋求補充不含 PFAS 化學物質設計的產品,淨銷售額成長是可以實現的。在這種環境下——對不起,在這種環境下,我們的目標是適度提高 24 年全年營業利潤率。我們計劃在明年 2 月公佈第四季度業績時提供有關 '24 前景的更多詳細資訊。
Overall, I'm confident in our team, our strategies and our ability to achieve the significant long-term growth opportunities we see across the business. We're investing in our strategic priorities to accelerate profitable growth, create iconic products that are differentiated, functional and innovative, drive brand engagement with increased focus, demand creation investments, enhance consumer experiences by investing in capabilities to delight and retain consumers, amplify marketplace excellence that is digitally led omni-channel and global and empower talent that is driven by our core values.
總的來說,我對我們的團隊、我們的策略以及我們實現整個業務中重大長期成長機會的能力充滿信心。我們正在投資我們的策略重點,以加速獲利成長,創造差異化、功能性和創新性的標誌性產品,透過更專注、需求創造投資來推動品牌參與度,透過投資取悅和留住消費者的能力來增強消費者體驗,擴大市場以數位化方式引領全通路和全球的卓越,並賦予由我們的核心價值驅動的人才。
That concludes my prepared remarks. We welcome your questions for the remainder of the hour. Operator, can you help us with that?
我準備好的發言就到此結束。我們歡迎您在剩下的時間裡提出問題。接線員,您能幫助我們嗎?
Operator
Operator
(Operator Instructions) The first question comes from Bob Drbul with Guggenheim.
(操作員說明)第一個問題來自古根漢的鮑伯‧德布爾(Bob Drbul)。
Robert Scott Drbul - Senior MD
Robert Scott Drbul - Senior MD
I guess, Tim, 2 questions that I have for you. I think the first one is, so when you think about the next few months of this -- the holiday season and sort of what upon us. Can you just like -- with the order book where it is your sell-ins where it is, can you elaborate a bit in terms of how you see inventories at wholesale -- I mean at retail, your wholesale partners? And then I guess the second piece of this is when you think about your DTC business sort of in the fourth quarter but also sort of into '24, just how you're approaching it, given a lot of the headwinds that are out there and sort of some of the uncertainty?
提姆,我想我有兩個問題想問你。我認為第一個是,所以當你想到接下來的幾個月——假期以及我們即將面臨的事情。您能否就訂單簿中的銷售情況詳細說明您如何看待批發庫存——我的意思是零售業,您的批發合作夥伴?然後我想第二部分是當你考慮你的 DTC 業務時,你會在第四季度,但也會在 24 年考慮你的 DTC 業務,考慮到目前存在的許多不利因素,你將如何處理它。有點不確定性?
Timothy P. Boyle - Chairman, CEO & President
Timothy P. Boyle - Chairman, CEO & President
Yes. Thanks, Bob. Well, as you know, this year has been really about inventory management for the company and that's been the focus for us. And so we're prepared to have a great fourth quarter. As usual, with Columbia, it's going to be a weather story. So we're expecting weather to be normal and Frankly, that's a global norm. So we've got places in the world where it will likely be colder than normal and some places where it may even be warmer. But I would expect it. We planned the business for basically an average year. Our partners -- our retail partners are well set up. We delivered earlier this year than we did last year. So our expectations are that we're going to have a solid sell-through bigger products for '23.
是的。謝謝,鮑伯。嗯,如您所知,今年公司的庫存管理確實是重點,這也是我們的重點。因此,我們準備好迎接美好的第四季。像往常一樣,哥倫比亞號將講述一個天氣故事。所以我們預計天氣會正常,坦白說,這是全球常態。因此,世界上有些地方的天氣可能會比正常情況更冷,有些地方甚至可能會更溫暖。但我希望如此。我們基本上按照平均每年的時間來規劃業務。我們的合作夥伴-我們的零售合作夥伴已經建立良好。我們今年交貨的時間比去年早。因此,我們的期望是,我們將在 23 年推出更穩定的更大產品。
As it relates to '24, we've basically been operating a business that we grew nicely with local talent or talent that's been with the company for quite some time. We've added a professional to help us run the business in a better way. David Theiss, who we talked about last quarter. And our expectations are that as we continue to improve the way we operate DTC stores for the balance of '23 and into '24, we're going to see some quite outstanding results. Frankly, we're doing quite well with the existing fleet. We know we can only improve.
就 24 世紀而言,我們基本上一直在經營一家業務,我們在本地人才或在公司工作了相當長一段時間的人才的幫助下發展得很好。我們增加了一名專業人員來幫助我們更好地經營業務。大衛泰斯(David Theiss),我們上個季度談到他。我們的期望是,隨著我們在 23 年餘下時間和 24 年期間繼續改進 DTC 商店的運作方式,我們將看到一些相當出色的成果。坦白說,我們現有的機隊做得很好。我們知道我們只能改進。
Robert Scott Drbul - Senior MD
Robert Scott Drbul - Senior MD
And Tim, as you think about this -- the early spring order book, just any more color in terms of is pricing or anything in terms of -- is pricing or anything in terms of -- is it all just sort of macro do you think that's impacting what you've seen from your wholesale partners at this point?
提姆,當你想到這一點時 - 早春訂單簿,定價或任何方面的更多色彩 - 定價或任何方面 - 這只是宏觀方面嗎?您認為這會影響您目前從批發合作夥伴那裡看到的情況嗎?
Timothy P. Boyle - Chairman, CEO & President
Timothy P. Boyle - Chairman, CEO & President
Yes. Well, I think there's some -- for larger operations, more Pan-American operations, there are concerns that they want to manage their inventory levels that contain PFAS out of their business inventories, and we want to do the same thing. So there's a certain cautiousness there. And the expectations, I think, are going to be quite good for the rest of the year. Our expectations are that as we continue to roll out these innovation and excel on these marketing activities that we talked about earlier today that we're going to have a solid year.
是的。嗯,我認為有一些 - 對於更大的業務,更多的泛美業務,人們擔心他們希望管理其商業庫存中含有 PFAS 的庫存水平,我們想做同樣的事情。所以有一定的謹慎態度。我認為,今年剩餘時間的預期將會非常好。我們的期望是,隨著我們繼續推出這些創新並在我們今天早些時候談到的這些行銷活動中表現出色,我們將度過一個堅實的一年。
Jim A. Swanson - Executive VP & CFO
Jim A. Swanson - Executive VP & CFO
Bob, I might add a couple of the factors that are contributing to that order book being down. Certainly, the outdoor footwear trend that we've seen this year and our business has been a little bit soft in the footwear category. That's holding back the order book. Tim touched on the PFAS transition, that's having an impact. And then to a degree, particularly with smaller customers that may have more liquidity constraints given the environment that we're operating in and that part of our business has been more impacted than when we look at certain of our larger strategic accounts.
鮑勃,我可能會補充一些導致訂單下降的因素。當然,我們今年看到的戶外鞋趨勢以及我們的鞋類業務有點疲軟。這阻礙了訂單。蒂姆談到了 PFAS 的轉變,這正在產生影響。然後在某種程度上,特別是對於規模較小的客戶,考慮到我們所處的營運環境,這些客戶可能會受到更多的流動性限制,而且我們的這部分業務受到的影響比我們查看某些較大的戰略客戶時受到的影響更大。
Operator
Operator
The next question comes from Mauricio Serna with UBS.
下一個問題來自瑞銀集團的 Mauricio Serna。
Mauricio Serna Vega - Analyst
Mauricio Serna Vega - Analyst
Yes. I guess I wanted to ask, I think you mentioned at the end of your remarks, you saw some signs of headwinds emerging in Europe-direct and Canada. I just wanted to -- maybe you could provide more details into that? And then talking about the PFA (sic) [PFAS] impact on the wholesale order book, is there any way you can explain a little bit more like which regions should be more impacted maybe as I think about like maybe some regions have retailers who are farther along in that road into transitioning out of PFA (sic) PFAS ? So that will be very helpful to understand as well.
是的。我想我想問,我想你在演講結束時提到,你看到歐洲直接和加拿大出現了一些逆風的跡象。我只是想——也許你可以提供更多細節?然後談論 PFA(原文如此)[PFAS] 對批發訂單的影響,有沒有什麼方法可以解釋一下,例如哪些地區應該受到更大的影響,也許正如我所想,也許某些地區的零售商在從PFA (原文如此)PFAS 過渡的道路上走得更遠?所以這對於理解也非常有幫助。
Timothy P. Boyle - Chairman, CEO & President
Timothy P. Boyle - Chairman, CEO & President
Certainly, well, yes, we're seeing -- and as it relates to Europe and Canada, we're seeing similar constraints that Jim mentioned on the capital -- the lower capitalized retailers that we have in those 2 markets. And again, the geopolitical disruption, including the war in Ukraine, specifically as it relates to Europe are having an impact. As it relates to PFAS, there's really only 2 geographies in the world that will have a prohibition beginning in 2025 on PFAS.
當然,是的,我們看到——因為它與歐洲和加拿大有關,我們看到吉姆提到的類似的資本限制——我們在這兩個市場擁有資本較低的零售商。地緣政治的混亂,包括烏克蘭戰爭,特別是與歐洲有關的戰爭,再次產生了影響。就 PFAS 而言,世界上實際上只有 2 個地區將從 2025 年開始禁止使用 PFAS。
So it's possible to navigate these and sell product where these 2 -- where the products are prohibited. But large multi-state U.S.A. operations that want to have a common inventory across their entire fleet. Those are the areas where they're being quite cautious on building inventories.
因此,可以在這些產品被禁止的地方進行導航並銷售產品。但美國的大型多州營運機構希望在整個機隊中擁有共同的庫存。在這些領域,他們在建立庫存方面非常謹慎。
Jim A. Swanson - Executive VP & CFO
Jim A. Swanson - Executive VP & CFO
Yes. And then just to double back, Mauricio, as it relates to Europe and Canada. I'd also note, when you look at our third quarter results, consumer demand within our direct-to-consumer business in each of those geographies is still plus 20% in local currency terms. So from a consumer demand standpoint, still very healthy in most, if not all or close to all of our international regions where we're beginning to see some of that softness is looking out into the order book and just given the overall conservative nature of how retailers are placing orders at this stage.
是的。然後,毛里西奧,再說一遍,因為這與歐洲和加拿大有關。我還想指出的是,當您查看我們第三季度的業績時,您會發現,以當地貨幣計算,我們每個地區的直接面向消費者業務中的消費者需求仍然增長了 20%。因此,從消費者需求的角度來看,在大多數(如果不是全部或接近所有)國際地區仍然非常健康,我們開始看到一些疲軟的情況正在關注訂單簿,並考慮到整體保守的性質零售商現階段如何下訂單。
Mauricio Serna Vega - Analyst
Mauricio Serna Vega - Analyst
Got it. That's super helpful. And I guess, just very quickly, when you talk about the -- in your presentation about the number of stores. Just want to make sure, does that number include the temporary stores that you're opening? And also, how long are these temporary stores will be operational? Just, I guess -- I mean the purpose of it is to get rid excess inventory. So I just want to make sure like how should we think about those stores once -- now that the teams have [presented] a good place.
知道了。這非常有幫助。我想,當你在演講中談到商店數量時,速度很快。只是想確定一下,這個數字是否包括您要開設的臨時商店?另外,這些臨時商店將運作多久?只是,我想——我的意思是它的目的是擺脫多餘的庫存。所以我只是想確定一下,既然團隊已經[展示了]一個好地方,我們應該如何考慮這些商店。
Jim A. Swanson - Executive VP & CFO
Jim A. Swanson - Executive VP & CFO
Yes, temporary stores are not reflected in the store count that we provided. And we haven't provided those for a variety of reasons. These come in all different forms and shapes and sizes. And so they're really not comparable to looking at the existing store fleet. So that's why the store count is not included. We've begun to extend certain of those leases through much of next year knowing that -- we saw work to do in terms of getting our inventory cleaned up as much progress that we anticipate making by the end of this year, there's still continued efforts next year, coupled with, I think, the point around some of the PFAS inventory, certainly to the degree we have remaining unsold PFAS inventory, we would look to move that through our outlook that a profitable -- in a profitable manner similar to what we're doing this year.
是的,臨時商店並未反映在我們提供的商店數量中。由於各種原因我們沒有提供這些。它們有各種不同的形式、形狀和大小。因此,它們確實無法與現有的商店隊伍相比。這就是為什麼不包括商店數量的原因。我們已經開始將其中某些租約延長到明年的大部分時間,因為我們知道在清理庫存方面還有很多工作要做,我們預計到今年年底會取得如此多的進展,但我們仍然需要繼續努力明年,我認為,再加上一些PFAS 庫存的問題,當然,我們還有剩餘未售出的PFAS 庫存,我們希望透過我們的前景來實現這一目標,即以一種盈利的方式,類似於我們今年正在做。
Mauricio Serna Vega - Analyst
Mauricio Serna Vega - Analyst
Got it. I start very quickly. What are the 2 regions that you mentioned for the -- regarding the PFAS maybe I didn't hear it, but I just want to make sure that those -- what were those 2 regions?
知道了。我開始得很快。您提到的 2 個區域是什麼——關於 PFAS 也許我沒有聽到,但我只是想確定一下——那 2 個區域是什麼?
Jim A. Swanson - Executive VP & CFO
Jim A. Swanson - Executive VP & CFO
New York and California. Just those 2 states. Those are the only 2 states that require PFAS-free chemicals and the effective date of that regulation is January 1 of '25. So we have between now and then to work through the transition. We're well down the track on this. We'll -- for beginning with our Fall '24 season, which we've commercialized and we're going to market on, that product no longer -- we've designed it so that it no longer has PFAS chemicals intentionally put into that product. And so we'll be working through next year as retailers destock any on-hand inventories they have and then restock into the new merchandise.
紐約和加州。就這兩個狀態。這是僅有的 2 個州要求不含 PFAS 化學品,該法規的生效日期是 2025 年 1 月 1 日。因此,從現在到那時,我們必須努力完成過渡。我們在這方面已經很順利了。我們將 - 從我們的 24 年秋季季節開始,我們已經將其商業化,並且我們將不再銷售該產品 - 我們對其進行設計,使其不再有意將 PFAS 化學品添加到產品中那個產品。因此,我們將在明年努力,零售商將減少現有庫存,然後重新進貨新商品。
That's going to create some of the challenges when you think about first half, second half from a growth rate standpoint because part of that first half order book is soft as retailers begin to contemplate what they need in inventory and be able to sell down those PFAS styles. And then our expectation is that they'll eventually begin to restock into that as our fall merchandise becomes available in the market.
當你從成長率的角度考慮上半年和下半年時,這將帶來一些挑戰,因為上半年訂單的一部分是軟的,因為零售商開始考慮他們在庫存中需要什麼並能夠出售這些 PFAS風格。然後我們的期望是,當我們的秋季商品上市時,他們最終會開始重新進貨。
And to some degree, while this is specific to California, New York, we are making this conversions for our global product line. And so to some extent, while this is specific to New York and California, it does have a carryover impact into other geographies as they need to work through the same transition with all of their retailers.
在某種程度上,雖然這是加州和紐約特有的,但我們正在為我們的全球產品線進行這種轉換。因此,在某種程度上,雖然這是紐約和加州特有的情況,但它確實對其他地區產生了延續性影響,因為它們需要與所有零售商進行相同的過渡。
Operator
Operator
The next question comes from Laurent Vasilescu with BNP Paribas.
下一個問題來自法國巴黎銀行的 Laurent Vasilescu。
Laurent Andre Vasilescu - Research Analyst
Laurent Andre Vasilescu - Research Analyst
I wanted to ask -- sorry, I'm going to be the next person asking about PFAS, but I think Jim, you've been pretty clear about PFAS. You guys called it out at your Investor Day. I think you talked about it. It's in your 10-Q. You guys been ahead of the -- ahead of this, but what do you think are the implications? I know you can't speak to other companies, but what do you think the implications are for the industry? Where do you think you are in terms of phasing this out relative to the overall industry? Is this applicable to just outerwear? Or does it just go down all the way down to either the YKK zippers and this is more of a broad industry factor to consider?
我想問——抱歉,我將成為下一個詢問 PFAS 的人,但我認為吉姆,你對 PFAS 的了解非常清楚。你們在投資者日上大聲疾呼。我想你已經談過了。它在你的 10-Q 中。你們已經領先了,但你們認為這會帶來什麼影響?我知道您無法與其他公司交談,但您認為這對行業有何影響?相對於整個產業,您認為您在逐步淘汰這一方面處於什麼位置?這僅適用於外套嗎?或者它是否只是一直下降到 YKK 拉鍊,這是一個更廣泛的行業因素需要考慮?
Timothy P. Boyle - Chairman, CEO & President
Timothy P. Boyle - Chairman, CEO & President
Yes. So this is Tim. So just to be clear, PFAS has been around in thousands and thousands of products all the way from food containers to medical devices, which are implanted in a human body. So this is not just limited to outerwear. This is an endemic across all sorts of stuff, including furniture and anti-stain paints, as you mentioned in the different thing. So these products are endemic and across all sorts of different products. .
是的。這就是蒂姆。需要明確的是,PFAS 存在於成千上萬種產品中,從食品容器到植入人體的醫療設備。所以這不僅限於外套。正如您在另一件事中提到的,這是各種東西的普遍現象,包括家具和防污漆。因此,這些產品是流行的,涵蓋各種不同的產品。 。
So, I think we're well ahead. In fact, I know we're well ahead of many competitors, especially those who are smaller. So if we think about the size of our business and the amount of opportunity we have and capacity to accept additional expenses as it relates to understanding the chemistry, applying the chemistry to our products, et cetera, and then managing where these products go after January 1, '25 so that we don't run afoul of these issues. We're well ahead. There are other smaller companies who are quite far behind and even some larger ones.
所以,我認為我們已經領先了。事實上,我知道我們遠遠領先許多競爭對手,尤其是那些規模較小的競爭對手。因此,如果我們考慮一下我們的業務規模、我們擁有的機會數量以及接受額外費用的能力,因為這涉及到了解化學、將化學應用到我們的產品等,然後管理這些產品在一月份後的去向1 , '25 這樣我們就不會遇到這些問題。我們遙遙領先。還有其他較小的公司遠遠落後,甚至還有一些較大的公司。
So I think we're managing our business to the best we can. And I think we're -- we've got it well organized and I'm proud of what the team has done to manage this process.
所以我認為我們正在盡最大努力管理我們的業務。我認為我們已經組織得很好,我對團隊為管理這項流程所做的一切感到自豪。
Laurent Andre Vasilescu - Research Analyst
Laurent Andre Vasilescu - Research Analyst
Okay. Very helpful, Tim. And then maybe I might have missed this just because we're all juggling a bunch of earnings calls, but did you guys you talked -- you talked a little about your spring order, the reflection of the challenges. Maybe can you just kind of put a finer point on that? Like how do we think about that for -- as we think about 1H? And is that reflective of U.S. wholesale challenges? Or are you also seeing that reflective of EMEA as well or other regions?
好的。非常有幫助,蒂姆。也許我可能錯過了這一點,因為我們都在忙於一堆財報電話會議,但是你們談論過嗎——你們談論了一些關於春季訂單的事情,反映了挑戰。也許你能對此提出更具體的觀點嗎?就像我們思考 1H 一樣,我們如何思考這個問題?這是否反映了美國批發市場的挑戰?或者您也看到了 EMEA 或其他地區的情況?
Jim A. Swanson - Executive VP & CFO
Jim A. Swanson - Executive VP & CFO
Yes. We commented on, Laurent, given the spring '24 order book that we've now fully taken, we anticipate our wholesale business globally be down a low double-digit percent. Within that as you think about it from a geographic standpoint, knowing that the U.S. is where we've seen most of the softness and then you have some of the discrete activity that we're talking about on the conversion of PFAS. The U.S. wholesale business will decline at a faster rate than the overall global rate. To a lesser degree, are we seeing that in the case of our European business and then our Asia businesses we're actually still quite well performing. Those [index] a little more D2C channels.
是的。 Laurent,我們評論說,鑑於我們現在已完全接受 24 年春季訂單,我們預計我們的全球批發業務將下降兩位數百分比。從地理角度來看,我們知道美國是我們看到大部分疲軟的地方,然後您會看到一些我們正在討論的關於 PFAS 轉換的離散活動。美國批發業務的下滑速度將快於全球整體下滑速度。在較小程度上,我們是否看到,就我們的歐洲業務和亞洲業務而言,我們實際上仍然表現良好。那些[索引]D2C頻道多一點。
Taking that outlook for our wholesale business being down low to double digit. And when we combine that with the expectation that our D2C business continues to grow in the first half of next year, we believe that from an overall standpoint through the first half of the year, our business is likely to be down a mid-single-digit percent.
有鑑於此,我們的批發業務前景將下降至兩位數。當我們將這一點與我們的 D2C 業務在明年上半年繼續增長的預期結合起來時,我們認為從今年上半年的整體來看,我們的業務可能會下降一個中單-數字百分比。
We're still very early in our 2024 planning processes. So we've not gone any further than that in terms of what that might mean from an operating income perspective. I would expect at least some pressure knowing that there's going to be -- the top line is going to be down to the first half of the year. And of course, it's too early for us right now to comment on the full year.
我們的 2024 年規劃流程仍處於早期階段。因此,從營業收入的角度來看,我們並沒有進一步探討這可能意味著什麼。我預計至少會面臨一些壓力,因為我知道今年上半年的收入將會下降。當然,我們現在評論全年還為時過早。
Laurent Andre Vasilescu - Research Analyst
Laurent Andre Vasilescu - Research Analyst
Okay. No, that's helpful. And then maybe, yes, to your point, it's super early, but maybe you could just talk about just the degree of flexibility around the P&L, what could you do in terms of pulling back. I think you've got a 5% marketing spend. Anything that you would be willing to just -- are there no sacred cows kind of approach to hold the profitability for -- as we transition through this PFAS transition?
好的。不,這很有幫助。然後也許,是的,就你的觀點而言,現在還為時過早,但也許你可以只談論損益表的靈活性程度,在撤回方面你可以做什麼。我認為你有 5% 的行銷支出。當我們透過 PFAS 轉型時,您願意做的任何事情 - 是否沒有一種神聖的方法來保持盈利能力?
Timothy P. Boyle - Chairman, CEO & President
Timothy P. Boyle - Chairman, CEO & President
Yes, Laurent, I think, I'd just like to make the comment that the company has been historically known as an incredibly conservatively run a very focused, efficient company. And I think you can expect that, that will continue, and that there are lots of levers for the company to use to manage our SG&A spend, and we'll be using every 1 of them to maximize the return for our investors.
是的,勞倫特,我想,我只想評論一下,該公司歷來被認為是一家經營極度保守、非常專注、高效的公司。我認為你可以預期,這種情況將會持續下去,公司有很多槓桿可以用來管理我們的銷售、管理及行政費用,我們將利用其中的每一個槓桿來最大限度地提高投資者的回報。
Jim A. Swanson - Executive VP & CFO
Jim A. Swanson - Executive VP & CFO
And not the least of which, Laurent, as you'll recall, one of the areas that's impacted our P&L in a meaningful way this year is the elevated inventory and how that's added to our SG&A in terms of carrying costs that impacted our gross margin as well. So that is easily the top area that we're focused on getting those inventories back down and getting our labor productivity within our operations at a more efficient level because we know that, that can drive meaningful improvement in the operating structure of the business going into next year.
勞倫特(Laurent),您可能還記得,其中最重要的一點是,今年對我們的損益產生重大影響的領域之一是庫存增加,以及如何將庫存增加到我們的銷售成本、管理費用中,從而影響我們的毛利率以及。因此,這很容易成為我們重點關注的首要領域,即降低庫存並使我們的營運中的勞動生產力達到更有效的水平,因為我們知道,這可以推動業務營運結構的有意義的改進明年。
Operator
Operator
The next question comes from John Kernan with TD Cowen.
下一個問題來自 TD Cowen 的 John Kernan。
Alexander Laurence Douglas - Associate
Alexander Laurence Douglas - Associate
This is Alex Douglas on for John. I actually just had a quick follow-up on something you said in response to the last question. As it relates to kind of the flow of those elevated inventory costs and what you might get back over the next couple of quarters, how should we think about the magnitude and the timing of that? Any additional color you could provide there would be extremely helpful.
我是亞歷克斯·道格拉斯(Alex Douglas)替約翰發言。實際上,我只是對您在回答最後一個問題時所說的話進行了快速跟進。由於它涉及庫存成本上升的情況以及您在未來幾季可能收回的成本,因此我們應該如何考慮其規模和時間?您可以提供的任何其他顏色都會非常有幫助。
Jim A. Swanson - Executive VP & CFO
Jim A. Swanson - Executive VP & CFO
Yes, it's going to be difficult to provide specific guidance in terms of how we think about that in FY '24. What I would indicate is last quarter, we indicated that the impact of the elevated inventory on our operating profits here in '23, it's had about a 200 basis point impact on our operating profits. And that's a combination of SG&A with the likes of outside storage, labor costs and then, of course, the gross margin with the mix of excess product and SMU product that we do specifically for our outlets. And so there's a -- looking out to 2024, there is 200 basis points of improvement over time, whether -- to what extent we're able to capture all of that is dependent upon continuing to make progress on inventory. I wouldn't think that we're going to get all of that back.
是的,就我們在 24 財年如何看待這一問題提供具體指導將會很困難。我要指出的是,上個季度,我們指出庫存增加對我們 23 年營業利潤的影響,對我們的營業利潤產生了約 200 個基點的影響。這是 SG&A 與外部儲存、勞動成本等因素的結合,當然還有我們專門為我們的門市生產的過剩產品和 SMU 產品的毛利率。因此,展望 2024 年,隨著時間的推移,會有 200 個基點的改進,我們能否在多大程度上實現所有這些目標取決於庫存方面的持續進展。我不認為我們會收回所有這些。
And then certainly, there's so many other variables that play when we think about '24 from a profitability standpoint between revenue, other investments and other factors impacting the business. I don't want to get into magnitude and flow of what that could potentially look like.
當然,當我們從收入、其他投資和影響業務的其他因素之間的獲利能力角度思考「24」時,還有很多其他變數在起作用。我不想討論其可能的規模和流程。
Operator
Operator
The next question comes from Jim Duffy with Stifel.
下一個問題來自吉姆·達菲和斯蒂菲爾。
James Vincent Duffy - MD
James Vincent Duffy - MD
A lot of questions have been asked already. I wanted to ask just about the trend that you're seeing in your outlet stores. And I'm curious how the stores are performing, given the mix has shifted towards clearance inventory versus made for product, so if you could comment on traffic and conversion in the stores, what you've seen thus far, that would be great?
已經提出了很多問題。我想問一下您在直銷店看到的趨勢。我很好奇商店的表現如何,考慮到組合已經轉向清倉庫存而不是專為產品而設計,所以如果你能評論商店的流量和轉換率,到目前為止你所看到的,那就太好了?
Jim A. Swanson - Executive VP & CFO
Jim A. Swanson - Executive VP & CFO
We still see nice growth coming out of our outlet channel. It's difficult to comment on the traffic side of things, in particular, only from the perspective of -- to the degree we've opened up, and in many cases, we've opened up temporary stores in locations where we have existing outlets. So there is some cannibalization, and we're only keeping traffic on the existing store fleet. So it's tough for me to answer that question because we know that there's some puts and takes across that.
我們仍然看到我們的直銷管道出現了良好的成長。很難對交通方面的事情進行評論,特別是只能從我們已經開業的程度來看,而且在許多情況下,我們在現有門市的地方開設了臨時商店。所以存在一些蠶食,我們只保留現有商店的客流量。所以我很難回答這個問題,因為我們知道這其中存在一些問題。
But on the whole, we're still seeing in the quarter, we've seen nice growth in that brick-and-mortar business. I'd say that it's decelerated from an overarching standpoint, when you look at Q3 -- or sorry, Q1 to Q2 to Q3, but still driving nice growth in that part of our business.
但總的來說,我們在本季仍然看到實體業務的良好成長。我想說,從總體角度來看,當你看第三季度時——或者抱歉,從第一季度到第二季度再到第三季度,它正在減速,但仍然推動了我們這部分業務的良好增長。
Operator
Operator
Next question comes from Abbie Zvejnieks with Piper Sandler.
下一個問題來自 Abbie Zvejnieks 和 Piper Sandler。
Abigail Virginia Zvejnieks - VP & Senior Research Analyst
Abigail Virginia Zvejnieks - VP & Senior Research Analyst
I understand that inventory is expected to be down over $200 million at the end of the year, but it seems like with the order book down low double digits for the first half, the goal will likely be to reduce inventory more. So what of that will be reducing inventory receipts, which I know you commented that you did versus how long will the impact of increased promotions weigh on gross margin?
據我了解,年底庫存預計將減少 2 億美元以上,但隨著上半年訂單量下降兩位數,目標可能是進一步減少庫存。那麼,這會減少庫存收貨(我知道您評論過這樣做),而增加促銷活動對毛利率的影響會持續多久?
Jim A. Swanson - Executive VP & CFO
Jim A. Swanson - Executive VP & CFO
Well, we're still well on track to get that $200 million reduction in inventory exiting the year. Our primary focus there has been that should be less of a -- should be less of a factor as it relates to the timing of Spring '24 inventory receipts in production. As we begin to lap Spring '23 when we made progress with regard to the lead times within our supply chain. As we look forward, our supply chain has now caught up. So year-on-year, that really shouldn't be the factor. This is really much more a function of continuing to work through the inventory that we're carrying over from prior seasons in our Fall '23 inventory and leveraging our outlets to profitably to that inventory here in the fourth quarter. And we've been -- we've been really pleased with the margins that we've seen as we've sold through that excess inventory in our outlets through the third quarter and into the fourth quarter here.
嗯,我們仍然預計在今年減少 2 億美元的庫存。我們的主要關注點是,這應該不是一個因素,因為它與 24 年春季庫存收貨的生產時間有關。當我們開始進入 23 年春季時,我們在供應鏈內的交貨時間方面取得了進展。展望未來,我們的供應鏈現已迎頭趕上。因此,與去年同期相比,這確實不應該成為因素。這實際上更多是繼續處理我們從前幾季在 23 年秋季庫存中結轉的庫存,並利用我們的門市在第四季度利用該庫存來實現盈利。我們對我們所看到的利潤率非常滿意,因為我們從第三季到第四季都在我們的網點銷售了多餘的庫存。
Operator
Operator
The next question comes from Alex Perry with Bank of America.
下一個問題來自美國銀行的 Alex Perry。
Alexander Thomas Perry - VP, Equity Research Analyst
Alexander Thomas Perry - VP, Equity Research Analyst
I guess just first, what are your current expectations for holiday? Do you sort of expect both you and the industry to lean heavier into promos during this holiday given what you're seeing from a consumer behavior standpoint? I guess how do you think the overall promotional environment will play out?
我想首先,您目前對假期有何期望?鑑於您從消費者行為的角度看到的情況,您是否希望您和整個行業在這個假期期間更加傾向於促銷活動?我想您認為整體促銷環境會如何?
Timothy P. Boyle - Chairman, CEO & President
Timothy P. Boyle - Chairman, CEO & President
Yes, I think we can expect to be at sort of an average promotional year this year. Just to reiterate, Columbia is very weather-sensitive company in terms of our product offering, which is heavily weighted to outerwear and winter footwear. So that will be an important catalyst for growth and high margins as it relates to our company. And then you have to remember that Columbia is a global company. So we can't just look at the weather in North America, it's going to be important everywhere. So our expectations are that there's going to be an average weather year somewhere in the world and hopefully across the world.
是的,我認為今年我們可以預期是一個平均的促銷年。重申一下,哥倫比亞是一家對天氣非常敏感的公司,我們的產品主要是外套和冬季鞋類。因此,這將成為與我們公司相關的成長和高利潤的重要催化劑。然後你必須記住,哥倫比亞是一家全球性公司。所以我們不能只關注北美的天氣,它對任何地方都很重要。因此,我們的期望是,世界上的某個地方,並希望全世界範圍內,將會有一個平均天氣年。
Alexander Thomas Perry - VP, Equity Research Analyst
Alexander Thomas Perry - VP, Equity Research Analyst
Perfect. And then I just wanted to ask a similar question for sort of the puts and takes for 4Q gross margins? And then Jim, any sort of help on how we should start to frame calendar '24 gross margins? I know that freight has been a big benefit as we exited this year, offset by some heavier promos given the elevated inventory, just any color on sort of how we should be framing at least gross margins as we move through next year?
完美的。然後我只是想問一個類似的問題,關於第四季度毛利率的看跌期權和看跌期權?然後,吉姆,對於我們應該如何開始製定 24 年日曆毛利率有什麼幫助嗎?我知道,今年我們退出時,貨運一直是一個很大的好處,但由於庫存增加,運費被一些更重的促銷活動所抵消,只是明年我們應該如何制定至少毛利率?
Jim A. Swanson - Executive VP & CFO
Jim A. Swanson - Executive VP & CFO
Let me speak to the fourth quarter first. So our gross margins were up 70 basis points in the third quarter. We would expect our gross margin to be up slightly better than that in the fourth quarter. And it's essentially the same drivers that are going to underlie that. We know that we're going to continue to have or expect to have the freight benefits, those freight benefits the last couple of quarters have been north of 300 basis points. We should see that same or similar benefit here in the fourth quarter. Channel mix will be positive for us as we've got more of those wholesale shipments that we got out in the third quarter. So the business will be a bit more heavily weighted to our D2C business.
我先說第四季。因此,我們第三季的毛利率上升了 70 個基點。我們預計我們的毛利率將略好於第四季。本質上,驅動因素是相同的。我們知道我們將繼續擁有或期望擁有貨運收益,過去幾季的貨運收益已超過 300 個基點。我們應該在第四季度看到相同或類似的收益。通路組合將對我們有利,因為我們在第三季獲得了更多的批發出貨量。因此,該業務在我們的 D2C 業務中所佔的比重將會更大一些。
So combined, that's a pretty strong tailwind in the gross margin going into the quarter. The offset to that would be an increase in our promotional cadence, promotions and markdowns by and large, reflecting moving through that excess inventory through our outlets. So we feel good about the margin plans that we put for, our margin in the third quarter came through a little bit stronger than how we planned coming into the quarter. So we think we're well set there.
綜合起來,這對本季的毛利率來說是一個相當強勁的推動力。對此的抵消將是我們的促銷節奏、促銷和降價總體上有所增加,這反映出透過我們的門市清理多餘的庫存。因此,我們對我們制定的利潤計劃感到滿意,第三季的利潤率比我們計劃進入本季的水平要高一些。所以我們認為我們已經準備好了。
Looking out to next year, I think the factors I'd be thinking about without getting into specifics, this inbound freight benefit that we've been seeing this year, that will carry through at least the first quarter of next year. That's probably about the time that, that would transition and be comparable for the balance of the year. The costing environment has generally been favorable as we've finalized our product costing for Spring '24 and Fall '24. And with the favorable -- neutral to favorable costing environment, we by and large held pricing for a product line next year. So it should be net neutral to net positive.
展望明年,我認為我會考慮一些因素,但不涉及具體細節,我們今年看到的入境貨運收益至少將持續到明年第一季。到那時,情況可能會發生轉變,並且與今年剩餘時間的情況具有可比性。成本計算環境總體上是有利的,因為我們已經最終確定了 24 年春季和 24 年秋季的產品成本計算。在有利的-中性到有利的成本環境下,我們整體維持了明年產品線的定價。所以它應該是淨中性到淨積極。
And then, of course, we'll have some benefit. This is going to be the difficult -- the more difficult part of it to measure, but as we get inventories back down into more normalized levels and better balance on the full price to close out or clearance activity that should provide a margin benefit. So now the challenge with that is going to be -- we need the top line as well to offset some of those margin pressures.
然後,當然,我們會得到一些好處。這將是最困難的——更難衡量的部分,但隨著我們將庫存恢復到更正常化的水平,並更好地平衡全價,以平倉或清倉活動,這應該會帶來利潤率收益。因此,現在面臨的挑戰是──我們還需要營收來抵銷部分利潤壓力。
Operator
Operator
(Operator Instructions) The next question comes from Jonathan Komp with RW Baird.
(操作員說明)下一個問題來自 RW Baird 的 Jonathan Komp。
Jonathan Robert Komp - Senior Research Analyst
Jonathan Robert Komp - Senior Research Analyst
I just want to follow up just to clarify on the PFAS topic. Did I miss maybe could you quantify the impact that you're talking about? Is that across sort of all product lines and all seasons? And then are you willing to sort of talk about the impact from destocking that you're embedding in the first half?
我只是想跟進澄清 PFAS 主題。我是否錯過了也許您可以量化您所談論的影響?所有產品線和所有季節都是如此嗎?那麼您是否願意談談您在上半年實施的去庫存的影響?
Timothy P. Boyle - Chairman, CEO & President
Timothy P. Boyle - Chairman, CEO & President
Yes. We're having a difficult time with the audio, but I think you're asking about PFAS. Is that correct?
是的。我們在音訊方面遇到了困難,但我認為您是在問有關 PFAS 的問題。那是對的嗎?
Jonathan Robert Komp - Senior Research Analyst
Jonathan Robert Komp - Senior Research Analyst
Yes. Hopefully, you can hear me. I was asking if it's really applicable to all product lines? And then are you able to quantify the drag that you're building into the first half commentary?
是的。希望你能聽到我的聲音。我想問是否真的適用於所有產品線?然後你能量化你在上半場評論中加入的阻力嗎?
Timothy P. Boyle - Chairman, CEO & President
Timothy P. Boyle - Chairman, CEO & President
Yes. So the PFAS, as I said earlier in the call, is endemic across thousands of products. And so our are no exception. Many of our products contain PFAS and as we're building newer products and getting out of those, we're changing, and we don't intend to have any PFAS products that we're manufacturing after fall '24. So that's where we're headed. We've got a clear plan to sell the remainder of our PFAS inventory, almost all of it has been sold. And so we're expecting that the final liquidation will have minimal impact on the business in the future.
是的。因此,正如我之前在電話會議中所說,PFAS 在數千種產品中普遍存在。所以我們也不例外。我們的許多產品都含有 PFAS,隨著我們正在開發新產品並擺脫這些產品,我們正在做出改變,我們不打算在 24 年秋季之後生產任何 PFAS 產品。這就是我們要去的地方。我們有一個明確的計劃來出售剩餘的 PFAS 庫存,幾乎所有庫存都已售出。因此,我們預期最終清算對未來業務的影響最小。
Jim A. Swanson - Executive VP & CFO
Jim A. Swanson - Executive VP & CFO
And then, Jon, as it relates to the first half, it's exceptionally difficult to quantify the impact of what we're talking about from a PFAS transition perspective. There are so many other variables that are impacting the business. I -- we could even really estimate what that to look like. It's meaningful enough -- as we took in our order book, it was a common conversation that we've had with our sales team with certain customers particularly in the U.S., but to some degree, it is touching on earlier globally as well because this is a change in our global product line.
然後,喬恩,就上半年而言,從 PFAS 過渡的角度來量化我們所討論的影響是非常困難的。還有許多其他變數正在影響業務。我——我們甚至可以真正估計那是什麼樣子。這很有意義——正如我們在訂單簿中所記錄的那樣,這是我們的銷售團隊與某些客戶(尤其是美國客戶)進行的常見對話,但在某種程度上,它也觸及了早一些時候的全球範圍,因為這是我們全球產品線的變化。
Jonathan Robert Komp - Senior Research Analyst
Jonathan Robert Komp - Senior Research Analyst
Okay. That's helpful. And 1 follow-up just on SOREL. If you could talk a little bit more about what's contributing to the lower growth outlook for this year? And as we think longer term, I know a year ago at Investor Day, you highlighted SOREL is having the opportunity to grow 20% or higher year in and year out and having a $1 billion revenue opportunity. So can you just maybe frame out how we should be thinking about low single-digit growth this year for SOREL in terms of the broader opportunity and how you still see it?
好的。這很有幫助。以及 SOREL 上的 1 個後續行動。您能否多談談是什麼導致了今年成長前景較低?正如我們從長遠來看,我知道在一年前的投資者日上,您強調 SOREL 有機會年復一年地成長 20% 或更高,並擁有 10 億美元的收入機會。那麼,您能否從更廣泛的機會角度闡述我們應該如何考慮 SOREL 今年的低個位數成長以及您仍然如何看待它?
Timothy P. Boyle - Chairman, CEO & President
Timothy P. Boyle - Chairman, CEO & President
Yes. We are still very bullish on the SOREL brand and the opportunities there is clear. I would say that the opportunity for us to continue to grow it into a year-round brand has been slightly more challenging than we thought. And so it's still dependent heavily on winter product, where it has an incredible reputation. Our plan is to continue to focus on expanding with the seasonal nature of the products to take advantage of the incredible brand that SOREL has. We're also going to be expanding gender to get more men's product, children's product in the offering. But right now today is still a very famous winter...
是的。我們仍然非常看好 SOREL 品牌,那裡的機會是顯而易見的。我想說的是,我們繼續將其發展成為全年品牌的機會比我們想像的更具挑戰性。因此,它仍然嚴重依賴冬季產品,它在那裡享有令人難以置信的聲譽。我們的計劃是繼續專注於擴大產品的季節性,以利用 SOREL 令人難以置信的品牌優勢。我們還將擴大性別範圍,以提供更多的男性產品和兒童產品。但現在今天仍然是一個非常有名的冬天...
Operator
Operator
Okay. We have no further questions in queue. I would like to turn the floor back to management for any closing remarks.
好的。我們沒有其他問題了。我想請管理階層發表結束語。
Timothy P. Boyle - Chairman, CEO & President
Timothy P. Boyle - Chairman, CEO & President
Well, we thank you for listening to us today, and we'll talk to you soon in February when we have results from our fourth quarter. Thank you.
好的,我們感謝您今天聆聽我們的講話,當我們獲得第四季度的業績時,我們很快就會在二月份與您交談。謝謝。
Operator
Operator
Thank you. This concludes today's conference, and you may disconnect your lines at this time. Thank you for your participation.
謝謝。今天的會議到此結束,此時您可以掛斷電話了。感謝您的參與。