Capital One Financial Corp (COF) 2025 Q1 法說會逐字稿

Good day, and thank you for standing by. Welcome to the Capital One Q1 2025 earnings call. Please be advised that today's conference is being recorded. (Operator Instructions) I would now like to hand the conference over to your speaker today, Jeff Norris, Senior Vice President of Finance. Please go ahead.

您好，感謝您的支持。歡迎參加 Capital One 2025 年第一季財報電話會議。請注意，今天的會議正在錄音。（操作員指示）現在，我想將會議交給今天的發言人，財務高級副總裁傑夫諾里斯。請繼續。

Thanks very much, Josh, and welcome to everyone. To access our live webcast of this call, please go to the Investors section of Capital One's website at capitalone.com and follow the links there. A copy of the earnings presentation, press release and financial supplement can be found in the Investors section of Capital One's website at capitalone.com by selecting financials and then quarterly earnings releases.

非常感謝，喬希，歡迎大家。要訪問本次電話會議的現場網路直播，請訪問 Capital One 網站 capitalone.com 的投資者部分並點擊那裡的連結。您可以在 Capital One 網站 capitalone.com 的「投資者」部分找到收益報告、新聞稿和財務補充的副本，方法是選擇「財務」和「季度收益報告」。

With me this evening are Richard Fairbank, Capital One's Chairman and Chief Executive Officer; and Mr. Andrew Young, Capital One's Chief Financial Officer. Rich and Andrew will going through our presentation summarizing our first quarter results for 2025.

今晚與我一起出席的還有 Capital One 董事長兼執行長 Richard Fairbank；以及 Capital One 財務長 Andrew Young 先生。Rich 和 Andrew 將透過我們的簡報總結我們 2025 年第一季的業績。

Please note that this presentation may contain forward-looking statements. Information regarding Capital One's financial performance and any booking statements contained in today's discussion and the materials speak only as of the particular date or dates indicated in the materials. Capital One does not undertake any obligation to update or revise any of this information, whether as a result of new information, future events or otherwise.

請注意，本簡報可能包含前瞻性陳述。今天的討論和資料中包含的有關 Capital One 財務表現和任何帳簿報表的資訊僅代表資料中指明的特定日期。無論是由於新資訊、未來事件或其他原因，Capital One 均不承擔更新或修改任何此類資訊的義務。

Numerous factors could cause our actual results to differ materially from those described in forward-looking statements. And for more information on these factors, please see the section titled Forward-looking Information in the earnings release presentation and the Risk Factors section of our annual and quarterly reports accessible at Capital One's website and filed with the SEC.

許多因素可能導致我們的實際結果與前瞻性陳述中所述的結果有重大差異。有關這些因素的更多信息，請參閱收益新聞稿中的“前瞻性信息”部分以及我們的年度和季度報告中的“風險因素”部分，這些報告可在 Capital One 的網站上訪問並提交給美國證券交易委員會 (SEC)。

And now I'll turn the call over to Mr. Young. Andrew?

現在我將把電話轉給楊先生。安德魯？

Thanks, Jeff, and good afternoon, everyone. I will start on slide 3 of tonight's presentation. In the first quarter, Capital One earned $1.4 billion or $3.45 per diluted share. Included in the results for the quarter were adjusting items for legal reserve activities and discover integration expenses. Net of these adjusting items, per quarter earnings per share were $4.06.

謝謝，傑夫，大家下午好。我將從今晚演講的第 3 張幻燈片開始。第一季度，Capital One 獲利 14 億美元，每股收益 3.45 美元。本季業績包括調整法定儲備活動和發現整合費用的項目。扣除這些調整項目後，每季每股收益為 4.06 美元。

Pre-provision earnings in the first quarter were largely flat to the fourth quarter at $4.1 billion. On an adjusted basis, pre-provision earnings increased 2% from the fourth quarter. Revenue in the linked quarter declined 2%, driven by two fewer days in the quarter. Noninterest expense decreased 5% on an adjusted basis, driven by declines in both marketing and operating expenses. Our provision for credit losses was $2.4 billion in the quarter, a decrease of $273 million compared to the prior quarter. The decrease was driven by $148 million lower net charge-offs and $123 million larger reserve lease.

第一季撥備前利潤與第四季基本持平，為 41 億美元。經調整後，撥備前收益較第四季成長 2%。由於本季休假天數減少兩天，季月營收下降 2%。受行銷和營運費用下降的影響，非利息支出按調整後計算下降了 5%。本季我們的信貸損失準備金為 24 億美元，較上一季減少 2.73 億美元。下降的原因是淨沖銷額減少 1.48 億美元，儲備租賃金額增加 1.23 億美元。

Turning to slide 4. I will cover the allowance in greater detail. We released $368 million in allowance this quarter. bringing the allowance balance to $15.9 billion. Our total portfolio coverage ratio decreased 5 basis points to 4.91%.

翻到幻燈片 4。我將更詳細地介紹該津貼。本季我們發放了 3.68 億美元的配額。使配額餘額達到 159 億美元。我們的總投資組合覆蓋率下降了5個基點，至4.91%。

I'll cover the drivers of the changes in allowance and coverage ratio by segment on slide 5. In our Domestic Card business, we released $458 million in allowance. The allowance release was driven by continued favorable credit performance in the quarter, partially offset by higher consideration to our downside economic scenario and increased qualitative factors to account for heightened uncertainty.

我將在第 5 張投影片上介紹各個部分撥備和覆蓋率變化的驅動因素。在我們的國內卡業務中，我們釋放了 4.58 億美元的配額。撥備釋放的動機來自於本季度持續良好的信貸表現，但部分抵消了我們對下行經濟情景的更多考慮以及解釋不確定性加劇的定性因素的增加。

The coverage ratio remained largely flat as the impact of the allowance release was offset by the denominator effect from the paydown of seasonal balances. As a reminder, our domestic card coverage ratio is about 100 basis points above CECL day one after taking into account the impact of the termination of the Walmart agreement.

由於配額釋放的影響被季節性餘額償還的分母效應所抵消，因此覆蓋率基本上保持平穩。提醒一下，考慮到沃爾瑪協議終止的影響，我們的國內信用卡覆蓋率第一天比 CECL 高出約 100 個基點。

The allowance balance in our Consumer Banking segment was largely flat at $1.9 billion. Observed credit favorability and the impact of stable auction prices was largely offset by growth in the auto business. The coverage ratio decreased by basis points. And finally, our commercial banking allowance increased by $117 million. The build in allowance was driven by increased qualitative factors to account for heightened uncertainty as well as specific reserves for a small number of individual credits. Coverage ratio increased by 12 basis points to 1.73%.

我們的消費者銀行業務部門的準備金餘額基本上持平於 19 億美元。信貸優惠和穩定的拍賣價格的影響在很大程度上被汽車業務的成長所抵消。覆蓋率下降了幾個基點。最後，我們的商業銀行準備金增加了 1.17 億美元。增加津貼的原因是定性因素的增加，以解釋不確定性的增加以及少數個人信貸的特定儲備。覆蓋率增加12個基點至1.73%。

Turning to page 6, I'll now discuss liquidity. Total liquidity reserves in the quarter increased to $131 billion, about $7 billion higher than last quarter. Our cash position ended in the quarter at approximately $49 billion, up $5 billion from the prior quarter. The increase was driven by continued strong deposit growth in our retail banking business and the paydown of seasonal card balances. Our preliminary average liquidity coverage ratio during the first quarter was 152%.

翻到第 6 頁，我現在將討論流動性。本季總流動性儲備增至 1,310 億美元，比上一季高出約 70 億美元。本季末我們的現金狀況約為 490 億美元，比上一季增加了 50 億美元。這一增長是由我們零售銀行業務的存款持續強勁增長以及季節性卡餘額的償還所推動的。我們第一季的初步平均流動性覆蓋率為152%。

Turning to page 7, I'll cover our net interest margin. Our first quarter net interest margin was 6.93%. 10 basis points lower than last quarter. The quarter-over-quarter decrease was driven by the 15 basis point impact of having two fewer days in the quarter. Beyond day count, NIM increased 5 basis points as the beneficial impact of the reduction in the repay in our deposits was only partially offset by the seasonal impact of lower average card loans and higher cash.

翻到第 7 頁，我將介紹我們的淨利差。我們第一季的淨利差為6.93%。比上一季低10個基點。環比下降是由於本季營業日數減少兩天，導致營業額下降了 15 個基點。除了天數計算之外，NIM 還增加了 5 個基點，因為存款償還減少的有利影響僅被平均信用卡貸款減少和現金增加的季節性影響部分抵消。

On a year-over-year basis, NIM increased 24 basis points, driven by a favorable mix towards card loan and the termination of the revenue agreement with Walmart, partially offset by one fewer day relative to last year's leap year.

與去年同期相比，淨利差增加了 24 個基點，這得益於信用卡貸款的有利組合以及與沃爾瑪的收入協議的終止，但與去年閏年相比，閏日減少了一天，部分抵消了這一影響。

Turning to slide 8. I will end by discussing our capital position. Our common equity Tier 1 capital ratio ended quarter at 13.6%, approximately 10 basis points higher than the prior quarter. Net income in the quarter and the impact of seasonal loan declines were largely offset by the impact of the final CECL phase-in dividends and $150 million of share repurchases. Looking ahead, we expect the record date for the second quarter dividend for both Discover and Capital One to be after the May 18 closing date.

翻到幻燈片 8。最後，我想討論一下我們的資本狀況。本季末，我們的普通股一級資本比率為 13.6%，比上一季高出約 10 個基點。本季的淨收入和季節性貸款下降的影響在很大程度上被最終 CECL 逐步實施股息和 1.5 億美元股票回購的影響所抵消。展望未來，我們預計 Discover 和 Capital One 第二季度股息的記錄日期將在 5 月 18 日截止日期之後。

As a result, we expect current Discover shareholders will be shareholders of Capital One's common stock as a expected record date and will therefore receive Capital One's $0.60 second quarter dividend, subject to Board approval.

因此，我們預計目前的 Discover 股東將在預期記錄日期成為 Capital One 普通股的股東，並因此將獲得 Capital One 的 0.60 美元第二季股息，但須經董事會批准。

With that, I will turn the call over to Rich. Rich?

說完這些，我會把電話轉給里奇。富有的？

Thanks, Andrew, and good evening, everyone. Slide 10 shows first quarter results in our credit card business. Credit Card segment results are largely a function of our domestic card results and trends, which are shown on slide 11. In the first quarter, our Domestic Card business delivered another quarter of top line growth, strong margins and improving credit. Year-over-year purchase volume growth for the quarter was 5%.

謝謝，安德魯，大家晚上好。投影片 10 展示了我們信用卡業務第一季的業績。信用卡部門的表現很大程度上取決於我們的國內信用卡業績和趨勢，如投影片 11 所示。第一季度，我們的國內卡業務再次實現了營收成長、利潤率強勁且信用改善。本季採購量較去年同期成長5%。

The first quarter of 2024 had an extra day since it was a leap year. Adjusting for this leap year effect, year-over-year purchase volume growth was about 6%. Ending loan balances increased $6.4 billion or about 4% year-over-year. Average loans increased about 5% and revenue was up 7% from the first quarter of 2024, driven by the growth in purchase volume and loans.

2024 年第一季因是閏年，所以多一天。調整閏年效應後，年比購買量成長約 6%。期末貸款餘額年增 64 億美元，增幅約 4%。受購買量和貸款成長的推動，平均貸款額較 2024 年第一季增加約 5%，營收增加 7%。

Revenue margin for the quarter increased 37 basis points from the prior year quarter to 18.2%, primarily driven by the impact of the end of the Walmart revenue sharing agreement. The charge-off rate for the quarter was 6.19%, up 25 basis points year-over-year. The impact of the end of the Walmart loss sharing agreement increased the first quarter charge-off rate by 42 basis points. Excluding this impact, the charge-off rate for the quarter would have been 5.7% a year-over-year improvement of 17 basis points.

本季營收利潤率較去年同期增加 37 個基點至 18.2%，主要受沃爾瑪營收分享協議終止的影響。本季的沖銷率為6.19%，較去年同期上升25個基點。沃爾瑪虧損分擔協議終止的影響導致第一季的沖銷率增加了42個基點。排除此影響，本季的沖銷率將為 5.7%，較去年同期改善 17 個基點。

Our delinquencies have been improving steadily for several quarters on a seasonally adjusted basis. The 30-plus delinquency rate at the end of the first quarter was down 4.25%, down 23 basis points from the prior year. Domestic Card noninterest expense was up 13% compared to the first quarter of 2024. Operating expense and marketing both increased year-over-year. Total company marketing expense in the quarter was $1.2 billion, up 19% year-over-year.

經季節性調整後，我們的拖欠率已連續幾季穩定改善。第一季末30歲以上拖欠率下降4.25%，較上年下降23個基點。國內卡非利息支出與 2024 年第一季相比成長了 13%。營業費用和行銷費用均較去年同期成長。本季公司行銷總費用為 12 億美元，較去年同期成長 19%。

Our choices in domestic card are the biggest driver of total company marketing. We continue to see compelling growth opportunities in our Domestic Card business. Our marketing continues to deliver strong new account growth across the domestic card business and build an enduring franchise with heavy spenders at the top of the marketplace.

我們在國內卡上的選擇是整個公司行銷的最大驅動力。我們繼續看到國內卡業務中引人注目的成長機會。我們的行銷持續為國內信用卡業務帶來強勁的新帳戶成長，並在市場頂端與大額消費者建立持久的特許經營權。

Compared to the first quarter of 2024, domestic card marketing in the quarter included higher direct response marketing, higher media spend and increased investment in premium benefits and differentiated customer experiences like our travel portal, airline lounges and Capital One shopping. As always, all of our marketing and origination choices are informed by our continuous monitoring of portfolio trends market conditions and consumer and competitor behaviors.

與 2024 年第一季相比，本季的國內卡行銷包括更高的直接回應行銷、​​更高的媒體支出以及對優質福利和差異化客戶體驗（如我們的旅遊入口網站、航空休息室和 Capital One 購物）的更多投資。像往常一樣，我們所有的行銷和發起選擇都是透過持續監控投資組合趨勢、市場狀況以及消費者和競爭對手的行為來決定的。

Slide 12 shows first quarter results in our Consumer Banking business. Auto originations were up 22% from the prior year quarter, driven by overall market growth and our strong position to pursue resilient growth in the current marketplace. Consumer Banking ending loan balances increased $3.8 billion or about 5% year-over-year. Average loans were also up 5%. Compared to the year ago quarter, ending consumer deposits grew about 8% and average consumer deposits were up about 9%. Our digital-first national consumer banking business continues to grow and gain traction, powered by our technology transformation and our compelling no fees, no minimums and no overdraft fees customer value proposition.

投影片 12 展示了我們消費者銀行業務第一季的業績。汽車發起量較去年同期成長 22%，這得益於整體市場的成長以及我們在當前市場中追求彈性成長的強大地位。消費者銀行期末貸款餘額年增 38 億美元，增幅約 5%。平均貸款也上漲了5%。與去年同期相比，期末消費者存款成長約 8%，平均消費者存款成長約 9%。我們的數位優先全國消費者銀行業務持續成長並獲得關注，這得益於我們的技術轉型以及我們引人注目的無費用、無最低限額和無透支費用客戶價值主張。

Consumer Banking revenue for the quarter was down about 2% year-over-year, driven by margin compression in Retail Banking, partially offset by growth in auto loans and retail deposits. Noninterest expense was up about 27% compared to the first quarter of 2024 driven largely by the first quarter adjusting item Andrew discussed as well as increased auto originations higher marketing to drive growth in our National Consumer Banking business and continued technology investments.

本季消費銀行業務收入年減約 2%，原因是零售銀行業務利潤率受到壓縮，但汽車貸款和零售存款的成長部分抵銷了這一影響。與 2024 年第一季度相比，非利息支出增長了約 27%，這主要得益於安德魯討論的第一季度調整項目以及汽車發起量的增加、更高的營銷力度，從而推動了我們全國消費者銀行業務的增長和持續的技術投資。

The auto charge-off rate for the quarter was 1.55%, down 44 basis points year-over-year, largely as a result of our choice to tighten credit and pull back in 2022, auto charge-offs have been a strong and table contributor on a seasonally adjusted basis. The 30-plus delinquency rate was 4.93% down 35 basis points year-over-year.

本季的汽車沖銷率為 1.55%，年減 44 個基點，這主要是因為我們選擇在 2022 年收緊信貸並縮減開支，經季節性調整後，汽車沖銷一直是強勁的貢獻因素。30歲以上的拖欠率為4.93%，年減35個基點。

Slide 13 shows the first quarter results for our Commercial Banking business. Compared to the linked quarter, both ending and average loan balances were essentially flat. Ending deposits were down about 5% first quarter. Average deposits were roughly flat. We continue to manage down select less attractive commercial deposit balances.

投影片 13 展示了我們商業銀行業務第一季的業績。與上一季相比，期末和平均貸款餘額基本上持平。第一季期末存款下降了約5%。平均存款大致持平。我們繼續降低部分吸引力較小的商業存款餘額。

First quarter revenue was down 7% from the linked quarter and noninterest expense was down by about 6%. The commercial banking annualized net charge-off rate for the first quarter declined 15 basis points from the sequential quarter to 0.11%. The commercial criticized performing loan rate was 6.41%, up 6 basis points compared to the linked quarter. The criticized nonperforming loan rate was essentially flat at 1.40%.

第一季營收較上一季下降 7%，非利息支出下降約 6%。第一季商業銀行年化淨沖銷率較上一季下降15個基點至0.11%。商業銀行不良貸款率為6.41%，較上季上升6個基點。受到批評的不良貸款率基本持平於1.40%。

In closing, we continued to post strong and steady results in the first quarter. We delivered another quarter of top line growth in domestic card loans, purchase volume and revenue. In the auto business, we posted growth in originations and loan balances. Our national Consumer Banking business continued to deliver strong year-over-year growth and consumer credit continued to improve. Looking forward, we're very excited to move forward with our acquisition of Discover.

最後，我們在第一季繼續取得強勁而穩定的業績。我們國內信用卡貸款、購買量和收入又實現了一個季度的成長。在汽車業務方面，我們的貸款發放量和貸款餘額均有所成長。我們的全國消費者銀行業務持續實現強勁的年成長，消費者信貸持續改善。展望未來，我們非常高興推進對 Discover 的收購。

Last week, we received regulatory approval for our acquisition of Discover, and we're fully mobilized to complete the transaction on May 18. And Until we close, we are still separate public companies, so we have limited access to Discovery's information.

上週，我們獲得了收購 Discover 的監管批准，我們已做好充分準備，爭取在 5 月 18 日完成交易。在我們完成合併之前，我們仍然是一家獨立的上市公司，因此我們對 Discovery 資訊的存取受到限制。

Based on our due diligence and integration planning, we continue to expect that we will achieve the synergies we estimated when we announced the deal, enabled by the integration costs we estimated at the announcement. And we continue to believe we'll achieve the synergies run rate in about 24 months following the May 18 closing date.

根據我們的盡職調查和整合規劃，我們仍然預計，透過我們在公告中估計的整合成本，我們將實現我們在宣布交易時估計的協同效應。我們仍然相信，在 5 月 18 日截止日期之後的大約 24 個月內，我們將實現協同效應運行率。

And also, just a reminder, our network synergy estimate assumed the implementation of lower debit interchange rates proposed by the Fed under Reg II in October 2023.

另外，需要提醒的是，我們的網路協同效應估計假設聯準會在 2023 年 10 月根據 Reg II 提出的較低簽帳卡交換率得以實施。

Those proposed rates are still pending because of various lawsuits. If there is ultimately no reduction to the current debit interchange fee levels it would lower our debit network synergy because it would increase the baseline to which we are comparing by about $170 million. But it would have no impact on our company's future revenue because, of course, the debit business will be on the Discover Network.

由於各種訴訟，這些提議的費率仍懸而未決。如果最終沒有降低目前的金融卡交換費水平，那麼我們的金融卡網路協同效應就會降低，因為這會使我們比較的基線增加約 1.7 億美元。但這不會對我們公司未來的收入產生影響，因為借記卡業務當然會在 Discover Network 上開展。

Pulling way up, the acquisition of Discover is a singular opportunity. The combination of Capital One and Discover will create a leading consumer banking and payments platform with unique capabilities, modern technology, powerful brands and a customer franchise of over 100 million customers that spans the marketplace.

從長遠來看，收購 Discover 是一個獨特的機會。Capital One 和 Discover 的合併將創建一個領先的消費者銀行和支付平台，該平台具有獨特的功能、現代技術、強大的品牌以及遍布市場的超過 1 億客戶的客戶特許經營權。

It combines proven and complementary banking and credit card businesses with a global payments network. It leverages Capital One's technology transformation and digital capabilities across a significantly larger customer franchise. It delivers compelling financial results and offers the potential to enhance competition and create significant value for merchants and customers, and it enables and drives significant strategic and economic upside over the long term. And now we'll be happy to answer your questions. Jeff?

它將成熟且互補的銀行和信用卡業務與全球支付網路結合在一起。它利用 Capital One 的技術轉型和數位化能力來覆蓋更大的客戶特許經營業務。它提供了令人信服的財務業績，並有可能增強競爭力並為商家和客戶創造巨大價值，並且能夠在長期內實現和推動重大的策略和經濟優勢。現在我們很樂意回答您的問題。傑夫？

Thank you, Rich. We'll now start the Q&A session. Remember, as a courtesy to other investors and analysts who may wish to ask a question, please limit yourself to one question plus a single follow-up. If you have follow-up questions after the session is over, Investor Relations team will be available to answer them. Josh, please start the Q&A.

謝謝你，里奇。我們現在開始問答環節。請記住，為了尊重其他可能想要提問的投資者和分析師，請將自己限制為一個問題加上一個後續問題。如果您在會議結束後有後續問題，投資者關係團隊將為您解答。喬希，請開始問答。

(Operator Instructions) Ryan Nash, Goldman Sachs.

（操作員指示）高盛的瑞安·納許。

So Rich, obviously, a lot of concerns in the market regarding tariffs and the state of the consumer. It's hard to see those concerns in the results, given better-than-expected credit in the reserve release. So maybe just talk a little bit about what you are seeing in the data within Capital One, what gave you the confidence to release reserves. And then for Andrew, you mentioned some of the drivers, favorable credit, higher allocation to the downside. Maybe just remind us what's included for the -- within the allowance for both unemployment and the overall economy?

所以，Rich，顯然，市場上有很多關於關稅和消費者狀況的擔憂。鑑於儲備釋放的信貸優於預期，很難在業績中看到這些擔憂。那麼，也許您可以稍微談談您在 Capital One 的數據中看到的情況，是什麼讓您有信心釋放儲備金。然後對於安德魯，您提到了一些驅動因素，有利的信貸，更高的下行配置。也許只是提醒我們失業和整體經濟的津貼中包括了什麼？

Great. Thanks, Ryan. So let me take your question about what we're seeing in the data. Let me start with a more macro a discussion of the health of the consumer and how our major metrics, credit metrics are performing. And then let me just kind of double-click into the data that we're seeing on the spending side over the last couple of weeks because of course, everybody is watching that so closely. But first, pulling kind of way up on the consumer.

偉大的。謝謝，瑞安。那麼，讓我來回答一下你關於我們在數據中看到的內容的問題。讓我先從更宏觀的角度討論消費者的健康狀況以及我們的主要指標、信用指標的表現如何。然後，讓我雙擊一下我們看到的過去幾週支出方面的數據，因為當然，每個人都在密切關注這一點。但首先，要對消費者採取某種措施。

The US consumer remains a source of strength in the economy. That's true for almost any metric that we look at. the unemployment rate is low and stable. Job creation remains healthy, real wages are growing. Consumer debt servicing burdens remain stable near pre-pandemic levels.

美國消費者仍然是經濟的強勁來源。對於我們所觀察的幾乎任何指標都是如此。失業率低且穩定。就業成長依然健康，實質薪資正在成長。消費者債務償還負擔維持穩定，接近疫情前的水準。

In our card portfolio, we're seeing improving delinquency rates and lower delinquency entries, and payment rates are improving on a year-over-year basis. Now of course, the circumstances of individual consumers and households will vary as they always do. And what we look at often with national metrics is averages.

在我們的信用卡組合中，我們看到拖欠率正在改善，拖欠記錄減少，而且支付率也逐年增加。當然，個人消費者和家庭的情況會像往常一樣改變。我們常用國家指標來衡量的是平均值。

And as we've discussed before, some pockets of consumers are feeling pressure from the cumulative effects of inflation and higher interest rates. And we're still seeing delayed charge-off effects from the pandemic, although our improving delinquency suggests that this effect may be moderating.

正如我們之前所討論的，一些消費者正感受到通貨膨脹和利率上升的累積效應所帶來的壓力。我們仍然看到疫情造成的延遲沖銷效應，儘管拖欠率的改善表明這種影響可能正在減弱。

But on the whole, I'd say the US consumer is in good shape. And we watch -- we always watch all the sort of leading indicator credit metrics to have a view of where credit is headed. So let me just take a look at those. And then I'll come back to the sort of last couple of weeks of spend data.

但總體而言，我認為美國消費者狀況良好。我們始終關注各種領先指標信貸指標，以了解信貸的走向。讓我看一下這些。然後我會回顧過去幾週的支出數據。

So when we look inside our portfolio, of course, delinquencies are the best leading indicator. And we our delinquencies were stable on a seasonally adjusted basis throughout most of 2024. And as I mentioned, they improved relative to our seasonal expectation over the last six months. So that's obviously very good news there. Looking at other metrics.

因此，當我們審視我們的投資組合時，拖欠率當然是最好的領先指標。經過季節性調整後，我們的拖欠率在 2024 年的大部分時間裡保持穩定。正如我所提到的，相對於我們過去六個月的季節性預期，它們有所改善。這顯然是個好消息。查看其他指標。

Payment rates -- we've seen car payment rates increase year-over-year for the last two quarters. And this improvement is coincident with the improvements that we're seeing in our delinquency rate. Now of course, increasing payment rates, sort of slow down loan growth rate, but it's a trade we're always happy to make because of the flip side of the coin of the better credit performance.

付款率－我們看到過去兩個季度汽車付款率年增。這種改善與我們所看到的犯罪率的改善是一致的。當然，現在提高支付率會減緩貸款成長率，但我們總是樂意進行這種交易，因為它的另一面是更好的信貸表現。

Now underneath the surface of this average improvement in paints, we are also seeing the portion of customers making just the minimum payment running somewhat above free pandemic levels. So while the average customer is doing well, some customers at the margin are likely feeling stress from inflation and elevated interest rates.

現在，在油漆價格平均改善的表面之下，我們也看到，只支付最低金額的顧客比例略高於免費的疫情水準。因此，雖然普通客戶表現良好，但一些邊緣客戶可能會感受到通貨膨脹和利率上升帶來的壓力。

Revolve rates. Let me turn to look at that. Revolve rates have stabilized over the past year but remain below pre-pandemic levels for our major products and segments. So that, again, is another healthy indicator -- a healthy indicator. Now none of these observations are conclusive on your own, but I think they are collectively helpful at giving us insight into credit and economic trends.

週轉率。讓我轉過頭來看。過去一年，週轉率已經趨於穩定，但仍低於我們主要產品和部門疫情前的水平。所以，這又是一個健康指標──一個健康指標。現在，這些觀察結果本身都不是定論，但我認為它們結合起來有助於我們深入了解信貸和經濟趨勢。

Now there's another thing, Ryan, that we look at, of course, is new account originations. And we look at our new originations. We see early performance that is consistent with our expectations. It's stable and even improving a bit vintage over vintage and consistent with pre-pandemic levels.

瑞安，現在我們還要關注的另一件事當然是新帳號的發起。讓我們來看看我們的新起源。我們看到早期的表現與我們的預期一致。它很穩定，甚至比以前有所改進，與大流行前的水平一致。

Now this might be less of that observation may be more of a Capital One effect specifically because much of the stability from decisions we made starting back 2020 to account for inflated bureau scores and competitive dynamics and the flood of fintech supply. And so I think our interpretation is our active management has probably offset some underlying worsening that has happened in the marketplace.

現在，這可能不是那種觀察，而更多的是 Capital One 的影響，具體來說，這是因為我們從 2020 年開始做出的決策在很大程度上保持了穩定性，這些決策考慮到了虛高的局分數、競爭動態和金融科技供應的氾濫。因此我認為我們的解讀是，我們的積極管理可能已經抵消了市場上出現的一些潛在的惡化現象。

The other metric we look at is recoveries and our recoveries inventory continues to rebuild, of course, from the prior normalization of charge-offs that should be a gradual tailwind to our losses over time all else being equal. So that's the strong credit situation that we see. And of course, especially in the current -- union environment, we're monitoring that very, very carefully.

我們關注的另一個指標是回收率，當然，我們的回收庫存正在從先前的沖銷正常化中繼續重建，在其他條件相同的情況下，隨著時間的推移，這應該會逐漸減少我們的損失。這就是我們所看到的強勁信貸狀況。當然，特別是在當前的工會環境下，我們正在非常非常仔細地監控這一點。

Let me turn and just talk about the latest in terms of spend trends in our card business and in auto. So let me start with card. The spin trends were largely stable through the end of the first quarter. In recent weeks, we've started to see an uptick in spend growth per customer relative to this time last year across our consumer segments. I would note we haven't observed this more recent trend in our small business card portfolio.

讓我來談談我們的信用卡業務和汽車領域的最新消費趨勢。那麼就讓我從卡片開始吧。第一季末，旋轉趨勢基本穩定。最近幾週，我們開始看到各個消費者群體的每位客戶的支出成長與去年同期相比有所上升。我想指出的是，我們在小型名片組合中還沒有觀察到這種最新趨勢。

Now some of this uptick is likely driven by the timing of the Easter holiday, which fell in April this year versus March last year. So we maybe should discount that a little bit. We've also seen a recent increase in retail spending, particularly electronics in the past few weeks. Maybe that's a pulling forward of purchases in light of the tariffs, we'll have to see over time. At the same time, we've seen some easing in the T&E growth and airfare in particular.

目前，這種上漲的部分原因可能是復活節假期的時間，今年的復活節假期是在 4 月份，而去年是 3 月份。所以我們或許應該稍微降低一點這個比例。我們也看到零售支出最近有所增長，尤其是過去幾週的電子產品支出。也許這是由於關稅而提前購買，我們還需要一段時間才能看到結果。同時，我們看到差旅費用成長放緩，尤其是機票價格。

And the final thing I want to do is just talk about the auto patterns that we're seeing. While it's early, when we look at industry data, there appears to be a bit of a pull forward in auto purchases likely as consumers are trying to get ahead of tariff impacts. And we continue to monitor our application and origination volumes. I think also there is some early indication that auction prices are increasing more than seasonal norms. All of this is very early, but that would be what we see right at the margin.

我最後想說的是我們看到的自動模式。雖然現在還為時過早，但當我們查看行業數據時，汽車購買量似乎有所提前，這可能是因為消費者正試圖避開關稅的影響。我們將繼續監控我們的申請和發起量。我認為也有一些早期跡象表明拍賣價格的漲幅超過了季節性正常水平。所有這些都還為時過早，但這正是我們在邊緣所看到的。

So with that, I'll turn it over to Andrew for your question.

因此，我將把問題交給安德魯來回答。

Yes, Ryan, a few factors at play with respect to the allowance. Why don't I just start with our baseline forecast, and then I'll touch on water considerations. So for the baseline forecast, as Rich just talked about, our seasonally adjusted delinquency rates have been improving on a year-over-year basis since about October of last year and charge-offs have been improving for the last few months after you account for Walmart.

是的，瑞安，與津貼有關的因素有幾個。我為什麼不先從我們的基準預測開始，然後再談水的考慮。因此，對於基準預測，正如里奇剛才談到的，自去年 10 月左右以來，我們經季節性調整後的拖欠率一直在逐年改善，而計入沃爾瑪之後，過去幾個月的沖銷額也在不斷改善。

And so when we take those observed credit results and then we take our baseline forecast, our baseline forecast at the end of March, we use consensus estimates. And so consensus estimates at that point looks quite similar to consensus estimates at the end of December.

因此，當我們採用這些觀察到的信用結果，然後採用我們的基準預測，即 3 月底的基線預測時，我們使用一致估計。因此，此時的普遍預期與 12 月底的普遍預期非常相似。

Unemployment was in the, I think, peaking in the 4%, 3% range and GDP growth around 2% and inflation in the high twos coming down from there. And so if we take our observed credit results with that baseline forecast, what's baking in the oven resulted in an allowance release that would have been quite a bit larger than what we actually released this quarter.

我認為，失業率達到 4% 至 3% 之間的峰值，GDP 成長率達到 2% 左右，通貨膨脹率則在 2% 左右，隨後開始下降。因此，如果我們將觀察到的信貸結果與基準預測結合起來，那麼實際發放的配額將比本季實際發放的配額大得多。

And so the effect of tamping down the magnitude of that allowance release was really our consideration to downside economic risks and greater uncertainty, that really manifested itself in the final days of the quarter. And so we more heavily considered our downside scenario, which includes more severe rising unemployment and renewed inflation relative to the downside scenario we had a quarter ago.

因此，減少配額發放幅度實際上是我們對下行經濟風險和更大不確定性的考慮，這在本季度的最後幾天得到了充分體現。因此，我們更加認真地考慮了下行情景，與一個季度前的下行情景相比，下行情景包括更嚴重的失業率上升和通貨膨脹的再次出現。

And the favorable trends that I described then were partially offset by that greater consideration of the downside as well as the uncertainties around the forecast. And all of that ultimately led to the roughly $450 million release you saw in the quarter.

而我當時所描述的有利趨勢，因對不利因素以及預測的不確定性的更多考慮而被部分抵消。所有這些最終導致了本季約 4.5 億美元的釋放。

Sanjay Sakhrani, KBW.

Sanjay Sakhrani，KBW。

Rich, Andrew. Rich, you mentioned you're fully mobilized to integrate. I'm just curious how we should think about the timing in terms of some of the milestones to achieve the synergies. For example, how long would it take for the debit conversion to happen and maybe a similar point on expenses?

里奇，安德魯。里奇，你提到你已經充分動員起來融入。我只是好奇我們應該如何考慮實現協同效應的一些里程碑的時間安排。例如，借記轉換需要多長時間才能完成，費用方面也可能需要類似的時間？

Yes. Sanjay, as you said, we're still in the midst of doing our planning. But what I would highlight for you is based on what we know today, our assumption is that we're essentially just picking up all of the assumptions that we provided 14 months ago at deal announcement and pushing it back by a little less than six months. because you'll recall, we assumed the transaction would close when we did the announcement in late Q4, early Q1, so a center date there of January 1. Now we're closing on May 18. I would point you back to the timing that we included in the announcement and just shift all of that back to correspond to the later closing date.

是的。桑傑，正如你所說，我們仍在製定計劃。但我想向大家強調的是，根據我們今天所了解的情況，我們的假設是，我們基本上只是採納了 14 個月前在交易公告中提供的所有假設，並將其推遲了不到 6 個月。因為你會記得，我們​​在第四季末、第一季初宣佈時就假設交易將會完成，所以中心日期是 1 月 1 日。我們將於 5 月 18 日結束。我建議您回顧我們在公告中提到的時間，並將所有內容向後推遲，以對應稍後的截止日期。

Okay. Great. And then maybe a follow-up on capital return. Obviously, you guys are well above the CET1 target, I think, Discover as well. you've talked about sort of a phased migration back towards your target. Could you just discuss how we should think about it going forward in terms of when you might be able to start sort of elevating the amount of capital return?

好的。偉大的。然後也許會跟進資本回報。顯然，我認為你們遠遠超越了 CET1 目標，Discover 也是如此。您談到了分階段恢復目標。您能否討論一下我們應該如何考慮未來，即何時可以開始提高資本報酬率？

Yes. We're still operating as two independent companies, Sanjay. So at this point, our access to a lot of the more proprietary and confidential data has been limited. And after we close the transaction, we'll have access to the data we need to do the analysis to determine what we believe is the capital need of the combined company.

是的。我們仍然作為兩家獨立的公司運營，桑傑。因此目前，我們對許多專有和機密資料的存取受到了限制。交易完成後，我們將獲得所需的數據進行分析，以確定我們認為合併後公司的資本需求。

And in addition, we're in the midst of this year's CCAR, and we'll get our new SCB in June. And so as a result of that, I'd say, at least for the second quarter, it's reasonable to assume we'll likely maintain the pace we've been on until we get to the other side of close and do that analysis. But once we've completed that work, we understand the importance of returning excess capital to shareholders, and we intend to do so.

此外，我們正處於今年的 CCAR 之中，並將於 6 月獲得新的 SCB。因此，我想說，至少在第二季度，我們可以合理地假設我們可能會保持目前的步伐，直到我們到達收盤點的另一邊並進行分析。但一旦我們完成這項工作，我們就會明白向股東返還多餘資本的重要性，而且我們打算這麼做。

Terry Ma, Barclays.

巴克萊銀行的馬特里 (Terry Ma)。

So you called out marketing was up 19% year-over-year. It seems like you're still seeing some compelling opportunities and are leaning in. So maybe talk about where you're seeing the best opportunities right now? And then also, how are you thinking about balancing that investment for growth versus risk management, particularly in subprime?

所以您說行銷額比去年同期成長了 19%。看起來您仍然看到了一些引人注目的機會並且正在努力抓住它。那麼，您能否談談目前您認為最好的機會在哪裡？另外，您如何考慮平衡成長投資與風險管理投資，尤其是在次級房貸方面？

Yes. Terry, thank you and good evening. Our marketing investment continues to power the future growth of the company as we capitalize on opportunities that have become available from many of the choices we've made over the past years, but especially on the shoulders of our technology transformation. So our marketing investments generally fall into three categories.

是的。特里，謝謝你，晚上好。我們的行銷投資將繼續推動公司的未來成長，因為我們利用了過去幾年中所做的許多選擇所帶來的機遇，尤其是在技術轉型的背景下。我們的行銷投資一般分為三類。

First is our investments to fuel customer growth, and we remain really excited about the opportunities that marketing is providing especially in our card business. The tech transformation has allowed us to leverage much more data and also more advanced modeling techniques, leveraging machine learning and AI. And the insights that we get from all of these advancements allow us to create more and more tailored solutions for customers, providing them with the right products and services when they need them.

首先，我們的投資是為了促進客戶成長，我們對行銷所提供的機會感到非常興奮，特別是在我們的信用卡業務中。技術轉型使我們能夠利用更多的數據和更先進的建模技術，利用機器學習和人工智慧。我們從所有這些進步中獲得的洞察力使我們能夠為客戶創建越來越多量身定制的解決方案，並在他們需要時為他們提供合適的產品和服務。

Another thing that's been going on is we've continued to expand the channels and the sources for generating new accounts. So that's kind of the basic right down the fairway marketing, very stimulus response kind of driven side of the business.

另一件正在進行的事情是，我們一直在擴大產生新帳戶的管道和來源。所以，這就是基本上正確的行銷方式，是業務中非常刺激反應驅動的面向。

Second is our continued investment to win at the top of the market with heavy spenders. And this has been a quest that we have been on for years, of course, and spent a lot of time talking about this. But our growth in heavy spenders provides long-term benefits to our business not only in generating a lot of spend growth but also because of what comes with franchise very low losses, low attrition and the lifting of the brand and really the lifting of, I think, all of our franchises across the company.

第二，我們將繼續投資，以在擁有大量消費者的市場中贏得領先地位。當然，這是我們多年來一直在追求的目標，並且花了很多時間討論這個問題。但是，大額消費者的成長為我們的業務帶來了長期利益，這不僅體現在產生大量的支出成長，也體現在特許經營帶來的極低的損失、低的人員流失和品牌的提升，我認為，實際上，也體現在全公司所有特許經營權的提升。

So, of course, acquiring these customers is expensive and requires a number of sustained investments in order to attract and retain them. So significant marketing investment significant upfront early spend bonuses also, of course, we continue to invest in the experiences that we're offering our high-end customers, including exclusive access and experiences that aren't available in the general marketplace like lounge access, our full-service travel portal and access to unique properties and events. And of course, we have the continued investment in brand.

因此，獲取這些客戶的成本當然很高，而且需要大量的持續投資才能吸引和留住他們。因此，我們進行了大量的行銷投資，並提供了大量的前期早期支出獎金，當然，我們還將繼續投資於為高端客戶提供的體驗，包括一般市場上無法獲得的獨家使用權和體驗，如休息室使用權、我們的全方位服務旅遊門戶以及獨特的酒店和活動使用權。當然，我們也會繼續對品牌進行投資。

So we believe this opportunity is very big. This is a long-term quest we've been on for over a decade, so far. And while all the players in the card business do some effort to win at the top of the market, I think it's a much smaller number of players that are really leaning in and focused and doing the investments to put themselves in a position to win there. By the way, it's not lost on us that, that small list of most aggressive competitors at the top of the market is really leaning in to their marketing investments and their experiences. So the bar of competition is high, but I think the payoff is very large over the long run.

所以我們相信這個機會非常大。這是一個長期的追求，迄今為止我們已經堅持了十多年。儘管所有從事卡片行業的人都在努力在市場上佔據領先地位，但我認為真正傾身投入、集中精力並進行投資以使自己處於獲勝地位的參與者數量要少得多。順便說一句，我們並沒有忘記，市場頂端那一小部分最具侵略性的競爭對手確實依賴他們的行銷投資和經驗。因此競爭門檻很高，但我認為從長遠來看回報非常大。

The third area of marketing investment for Capital One is building our national bank. And we declared really over a decade ago that we were going to build a digital first full-service national bank. And this, of course, involves thin physical distribution across the nation in terms of branches in some markets and cafes in leading metropolitan areas.

第一資本行銷投資的第三個領域是建立我們的國家銀行。十多年前，我們就宣布要建立一家數位化的全方位服務國家銀行。當然，這涉及到全國實體分佈不均的問題，例如一些市場的分店和主要大都市地區的咖啡館。

We've had a big investment in the digital capabilities for full service banking on a remote basis. And for most banks that are building most full-service banks, virtually all full-service banks, their marketing statement is their branches themselves.

我們對遠端全方位銀行服務的數位化能力進行了大量投資。對於大多數正在建立全方位服務銀行的銀行來說，幾乎所有的全方位服務銀行，他們的行銷宣言就是他們的分行本身。

Capital One, by organically building a digital first full service bank, the role that marketing plays relative to physical distribution is just a different ratio there. And so we're leaning very heavily into that, but we are really pleased with the momentum we have there. And we're excited by the combination with Discover will give us more scale and more momentum in that space.

第一資本透過有機地建立一家數位化優先的全方位服務銀行，行銷相對於實體分銷所扮演的角色只是比例不同而已。因此，我們非常重視這一點，但我們對目前的發展勢頭感到非常滿意。我們很高興與 Discover 的結合將使我們在該領域擁有更大的規模和更大的發展動力。

So those are the three sort of big areas that we're leaning into in marketing and the investments are significant. We're putting a lot of energy, of course, leveraging all of our we spent so many years building the measurement infrastructure to be able to measure before during and after how various investments are doing but pulling way up, this is really the engine that is driving a lot of the future growth of our company. And as you can see from some of the numbers that we're posting and some of the investment dollars we're putting into this, we are feeling very optimistic about our prospects.

這些是我們在行銷方面重點關注的三大領域，而且投資巨大。當然，我們投入了大量的精力，利用我們多年來建立的測量基礎設施，以便能夠衡量各種投資在投資前、投資和投資後的表現，但這確實是推動我們公司未來成長的引擎。從我們發布的一些數據和投入的一些投資資金可以看出，我們對我們的前景非常樂觀。

(multiple speakers) He also asked just what about the growth versus risk management and with the eye towards subprime. I think this is in a good place. We are leaning into our marketing across the spectrum the subprime consumer actually has had a little bit of a faster rate of sort of curing post normalization of even relative to the rest of the spectrum as we've seen. So we continue to feel very good there. We're leaning into that.

（多位發言者）他也詢問了成長與風險管理之間的關係，並著眼於次級貸款問題。我認為這是一個很好的地方。我們傾向於在整個範圍內進行行銷，正如我們所見，次級抵押貸款消費者在正常化後的治癒速度實際上比其他消費者更快一些。因此我們在那裡仍然感覺很好。我們正傾向於此。

Now of course, we know that the uncertainty out there, the tariff prospects and everything has us very, very vigilant because if there's a shock to the system, we would expect that could hit harder at that part of the market. But I would leave you with the following impression. We're still leaning in, but we're very, very vigilant watching every day for early indicators of problems.

當然，我們知道，外面的不確定性、關稅前景等等都讓我們非常非常警惕，因為如果系統受到衝擊，我們預計這可能會對市場的一部分造成更嚴重的打擊。但我會給你留下以下印象。我們仍在努力，但我們每天都會非常警惕地觀察問題的早期跡象。

Moshe Orenbuch, TD Cowen.

Moshe Orenbuch，TD Cowen。

Great. You just in the last answer mentioned that the Discovery transaction is going to kind of help advance kind of the national banking franchise. Hoping maybe you could kind of drill into that is when you think about the elements that either Discover brings or things you'd like to add to your national banking products?

偉大的。您剛才在回答最後一個問題時提到，Discovery 交易將有助於推動國家銀行特許經營權的發展。希望您能深入研究一下這個問題，想想 Discover 帶來的元素或您想添加到國家銀行產品中的東西？

I mean, is rewards checking among them? Like what are the things that you think Capital One needs to do better to enhance that as you think about it going forward?

我的意思是，獎勵檢查也在其中嗎？例如，您認為 Capital One 在未來的發展中需要做哪些改進來增強這一點？

So Moshe, if we pull way up on our national banking strategy, it's very, very differentiated from most banks. Obviously, most banks have -- to overstate it a little bit, a branch on every corner kind of thing, not really every corner these days. But it's physical distribution one, two and three, all about physical distribution and then creating the customer experiences to go along with that.

因此，Moshe，如果我們嚴格執行我們的國家銀行策略，它與大多數銀行有著非常非常大的不同。顯然，大多數銀行——稍微誇張一點說，在每個角落都有一家分行，但如今並不是真的在每個角落都有一家分行。但它是實體分銷一、二和三，都是關於實體分銷，然後創造與之相適應的客戶體驗。

And of course, also their strategies of most regional banks are out there trying to build national banks. And the way they're going to get there is through acquisitions. Now it's ironic, I'm going to make the comment. I'm going to -- in the wake of a few days ago announcing the regulators approved a major acquisition.

當然，大多數地區性銀行的策略也是試圖建立國家銀行。他們實現這一目標的方式是透過收購。現在很諷刺，我要發表評論。幾天前，我宣布監管機構批准了一項重大收購。

But it's not the regular buying of a full-service branch bank-based bank. So our national bank doesn't have, as it's in its growth agenda, buying other sort of regional and local banks. Our business model is in building a national bank is one that doesn't -- we haven't really seen an example in nature here in America of doing that.

但這並不是對提供全方位服務的分行銀行的常規收購。因此，我們的國家銀行沒有按照其成長計畫收購其他類型的地區性和地方性銀行。我們的商業模式是建立一家國家銀行，但我們在美國還沒有看到這樣的自然例子。

But the key there is we have -- we're trying to build a bank with leaner economics that comes from not having branches all over the place and then to take -- and also to be very modern in its technology and its digital experiences. And in terms of the customer base that we attract to self-select to a more digitally first kind of experience. And with that business model comes less expensive economics.

但關鍵在於，我們正在嘗試建立一家經濟更加精簡的銀行，這種銀行不會在各地設立分支機構，而且其技術和數位體驗也非常現代化。就我們吸引的客戶群而言，他們會選擇更數位化的體驗。這種商業模式可以降低經濟成本。

And then what we've done is to pass the better economics on to the consumer in the form of very aggressive pricing with no fees no minimums and no overdraft fees. So it is a streamlined economics, then margin aggressively priced business model.

然後，我們所做的就是以非常有競爭力的定價形式將更好的經濟效益傳遞給消費者，不收取費用，不設最低限額，也不收取透支費。因此，這是一種精簡的經濟，然後利潤率積極定價的商業模式。

The benefit of the Discover acquisition relative to that, even though paradoxically, it's a bit of a paradox there because, of course, we're buying especially a credit card business is that the benefit of vertical integration with the network allows our thin margin business to strengthen its margins and allows us to lean in harder and invest even more in building organically this national bank, which has never really been done before. But that's the key way that the Discover acquisition is going to help turbocharge our national bank.

收購 Discover 的好處在於，儘管聽起來有點自相矛盾，因為我們收購的是信用卡業務，但與網路的垂直整合可以讓我們利潤微薄的業務增強利潤率，讓我們能夠更加努力地投入更多資金來有機地建設這家國家銀行，這是以前從未真正做過的。但這是 Discover 收購案幫助我們的國家銀行蓬勃發展的關鍵方式。

Got it. Maybe just keeping on the theme with Discover, recognizing that obviously, you don't run the company yet and haven't been inside. But just from what you know about the card business and its focus and what it's done and the fact that it's probably been less aggressively managed over the last somewhere between a year and two years, depending on when you start that.

知道了。也許只是繼續探索的主題，顯然認識到你還沒有經營這家公司，也沒有進入過。但是，僅從您對信用卡業務及其重點和所做的事情的了解，以及過去一兩年內它可能沒有得到積極的管理這一事實來看，這取決於您何時開始。

What do you think are the things that need to be done? And does that portfolio shrink before it grows? Any thoughts as to the Discover market and how to think about what you'd like to do with it?

您認為需要做哪些事？那麼，該投資組合是否會先縮水，然後再成長？對於 Discover 市場您有何看法？您想利用它做什麼？

Well, Moshe, we are very struck at how complementary their business model is relative to ours. So we have stretched across the credit spectrum to the tippy top down to -- into subprime. They, of course, have much more stuck to their knitting right in the sort of prime part of the marketplace. They have spent years and years optimizing that business in a way that I have great respect for relative to how to target the customers they want and the marketing and the message and the experience. We've also really come to appreciate just how exceptional some of their customer experiences are.

嗯，Moshe，我們對他們的商業模式與我們的互補性感到非常震驚。因此，我們的信用範圍已從最頂端延伸至次級抵押貸款。當然，他們在市場的主要部分更加專注於自己的業務。他們花了數年時間優化業務，我非常尊重他們如何瞄準目標客戶、行銷、資訊和體驗。我們也真正體會到了他們的一些客戶體驗有多麼出色。

You've seen, I don't know of any other card issuer that goes on national DV and does a lot of advertising about their servicing experience. I mean, not that we don't have great stories to tell, too. But I've always been struck, wow, they're on TV, talk about this thing.

你已經看到了，我不知道還有哪家信用卡發行商會在全國 DV 上大肆宣傳他們的服務經驗。我的意思是，並不是說我們沒有精彩的故事可以講。但我總是感到震驚，哇，他們出現在電視上，談論這個事情。

Well, when we look at just data that we've collected over time and we've collected a lot of it lately, data as an outsider looking at what people think about their customer experience, their servicing experience, some of their product experiences, they get very high marks. So what we feel that one of the most striking things about Discover is there focus on the customer, they're sticking to the knitting in their kind of one or a couple of sort of big segments and then having everything work backwards from winning in that space.

好吧，當我們查看我們長期以來收集的數據（最近我們收集了大量數據）時，作為外部人士觀察人們對他們的客戶體驗、服務體驗、一些產品體驗的看法，他們會得到非常高的評價。因此，我們認為 Discover 最引人注目的一點是他們專注於客戶，他們堅持在一個或幾個大的細分市場中編織，然後讓一切都從該領域的勝利開始。

So what we're going to do, even as we integrate and generate, of course, efficiencies and the benefits of leveraging Capital One's technology, Capital One's risk management capabilities and a lot of things. is very much have a great reference and respect for the business model they've created and making sure to preserve some of those really, really key success factors there.

因此，我們要做的是，在我們整合和創造的同時，利用 Capital One 的技術、Capital One 的風險管理能力和很多東西來提高效率和帶來好處。非常重視並尊重他們所創建的商業模式，並確保保留其中的一些非常關鍵的成功因素。

And so we're excited to jump in and do that, still two separate companies. So we're going to learn a lot more in the next few weeks. But this is going to be -- and a lot of acquisitions are just -- the goal of the acquisitions is just to take two companies, squad -- together and rip out the costs.

因此，我們很高興能夠參與其中並實現這一目標，儘管我們仍然是兩家獨立的公司。因此我們將在接下來的幾週內學到更多。但這將是——許多收購只是——收購的目標只是將兩家公司、小隊合併在一起並削減成本。

I think that Discover brings us a growth platform. Both on the network side and with respect to their card franchise that allows us to preserve the best of what they do, leverage a lot of Capital One's capabilities that we bring and build something really special.

我認為 Discover 為我們帶來了一個成長平台。無論是在網路方面還是在信用卡特許經營方面，我們都能夠保留他們最好的產品，利用我們帶來的許多 Capital One 的功能，打造一些真正特別的東西。

Rick Shane, JPMorgan.

摩根大通的里克·沙恩。

Hey guys. Thanks for taking my question, this afternoon look, I think one thing that is pretty clear over the last few years, there's been a significant divergence in technology investment between Capital One and Discover. Obviously, we're very interested in the synergies. I'm curious, as you've gone through your due diligence process, how the technology stacks compare for each company?

嘿，大家好。感謝您回答我的問題，今天下午看來，我認為過去幾年有一件事非常清楚，那就是 Capital One 和 Discover 在技術投資方面存在顯著分歧。顯然，我們對協同效應非常感興趣。我很好奇，在您完成盡職調查流程後，每家公司的技術堆疊如何比較？

Is this going to be an easy transition to get the Discover systems onto the Capital One system? Or is it going to be sort of the equivalent of you're looking for folks who can code Cobalt or something antiquated because of the more limited investment?

將 Discover 系統過渡到 Capital One 系統會很容易嗎？或者這相當於你在尋找能夠編寫 Cobalt 或其他過時程式碼的人，因為投資有限？

So we are very benefited by the now a 12 year technology transformation that we have had at Capital One. And that includes a tremendous investment starting at the bottom of the tech stack up in building core infrastructure. And we're talking about going to the cloud, of course, applications that modernizing all of the 1,300 applications on which Capital One is built, doing a transformation of our data ecosystem and so on.

因此，Capital One 過去 12 年的技術轉型讓我們受益匪淺。這包括從技術底層開始建立核心基礎設施的巨額投資。當然，我們正在討論轉向雲端，對 Capital One 所基於的所有 1,300 個應用程式進行現代化改造，對我們的數據生態系統進行轉型等等。

The bottom of the tech stack investments that we have made are just ideally suited for doing an acquisition, of course, especially in a -- of a credit card company because Discover will be able to step right in on the shoulders of our own technology transformation, and we can generate a lot of both cost savings but even more importantly, move them, help them leverage a more modern tech stack along the way. Now they are a mainframe.

當然，我們在技術堆疊底層進行的投資非常適合進行收購，尤其是收購信用卡公司，因為 Discover 能夠直接介入我們自己的技術轉型，我們可以節省大量成本，但更重要的是，幫助他們在過程中利用更現代的技術堆疊。現在它們是一台大型主機。

They have data centers and mainframes even as they've also taken some of their business to the cloud. So we will be going back into the world of data centers. We've been there, done that. And we have a lot of experience with respect to managing those environments, but also over time, moving those environments to the cloud.

他們擁有資料中心和大型主機，甚至還將部分業務轉移到雲端。因此我們將回到資料中心的世界。我們去過那裡，做過那事。我們在管理這些環境方面擁有豐富的經驗，隨著時間的推移，我們會將這些環境遷移到雲端。

The new thing for Capital One from a technology point of view, of course, is going to be the network. And running a global network is a really very complex and very high stakes activity. And we think Discover has done that very well. the Capital One way is to lean into technology, and I'm sure that we will together go on a great journey with their network to help over time take a strong network that they built and modernize it over time.

從技術角度來看，Capital One 的新事物當然是網路。經營一個全球網路確實是一項非常複雜且風險很高的活動。我們認為 Discover 在這方面做得非常好。 Capital One 的方式是依靠技術，我相信我們將與他們的網絡一起踏上偉大的旅程，隨著時間的推移幫助他們建立強大的網絡並使其現代化。

But we should note that this will be a return for a number of years for Capital One into the world of data centers. But we don't think this is a step into the past. What we do think is an ability to leverage the scale and stand on the shoulders of what we have built and to take a really extraordinary company and bring it on to more modern technology and generate even better experiences and economics.

但我們應該注意到，這將是 Capital One 多年後重返資料中心領域的嘗試。但我們並不認為這是回到過去的一步。我們確實認為，我們有能力利用規模，站在我們已經建立的基礎之上，帶領一家真正卓越的公司，使其採用更現代的技術，創造更好的體驗和經濟效益。

Got it. But it sounds like you will be on their tech stack for a couple of years and in their data center still?

知道了。但聽起來你還會在他們的技術棧上待幾年，而且還會在他們的資料中心？

Well, on the network side, so we have -- on the credit card side, we have a whole road map of how we're going to take their credit card business and move it on to our tech stack. On the network side, given that we don't have the equivalent on our side, we don't have a road map of a different destination.

嗯，在網路方面，我們在信用卡方面有一個完整的路線圖，說明如何將他們的信用卡業務轉移到我們的技術堆疊上。在網路方面，由於我們沒有同等的資源，因此我們沒有不同目的地的路線圖。

What we want to do is go in there and see what they've got. And we would like to take that on the same journey that we've taken all the rest of Capital One. But I think this is going to be measured in a whole bunch of years because they have built a global network and that's not going to be a quick kind of transformation to put that thing in the cloud.

我們要做的就是進去看看他們有什麼。我們希望能夠像 Capital One 的其他部門一樣繼續前進。但我認為這需要很多年才能衡量，因為他們已經建立了一個全球網絡，而將其放入雲端並不是一個快速的轉變。

John Pancari, Evercore ISI.

約翰·潘卡里（John Pancari），Evercore ISI。

Good evening. I appreciate that you cited no change to the Discover synergies or integration. I also know you indicated you don't own the company yet. So it's tough to completely look under the hood. Is there anything about the backdrop today, the regulatory developments, the competitive backdrop or anything that you see today that you think could lead to a revision to those synergies once you close the deal in May?

晚安.我很感激您提到 Discover 的協同效應或整合沒有任何變化。我還知道您表示您尚未擁有該公司。因此，要徹底了解事情的真相非常困難。您是否認為，今天的背景、監管發展、競爭背景或任何您今天看到的情況，可能會導致您在 5 月完成交易後對這些協同效應進行修改？

And then separately, you didn't mention 15% EPS accretion or to 14% CET1 on close. Just wondering if there's any change there.

另外，您也沒有提到收盤時 EPS 成長 15% 或 CET1 成長 14%。只是想知道那裡是否有任何變化。

John, to the last point, in terms of the assumptions of metric. First of all, with CET1, again, that was just what we assumed at the time of the announcement where both companies would be combined for CET1.

約翰，最後一點，關於度量的假設。首先，對於 CET1，正如我們在公告發佈時所假設的，兩家公司將合併為 CET1。

And so you can look haven't yet seen Discover's results for Q1, but you'll be able to do that math quite easily of where the combined CET1 will be. And then I'd refer you back to the earlier question in terms of our capital plans from there. With respect to metrics like EPS accretion or ROIC, a number of things have changed over the course of the last year, not the least of which is the denominator there.

因此，您可能還沒有看到 Discover 第一季的業績，但您可以輕鬆計算出合併後的 CET1 將會是多少。然後我請您回顧之前關於我們資本計劃的問題。就每股盈餘成長或投資資本報酬率等指標而言，過去一年發生了許多變化，其中分母的變化尤其明顯。

And so as we just take a step back and look at the overall numbers and the moving parts. So I would just say the strategic and financial benefits that we assumed 14 months ago remain fully intact.

因此，我們只需退一步看看總體數字和活動部分。因此，我只想說，我們 14 個月前假設的策略和財務利益仍然完好無損。

And we're just excited today as we were at the time of the announcement. And then with respect to the regulatory environment and backdrop, I would sort of lump that in with a number of things have changed over the course of the last 14 months, but nothing that we're specifically pointing to in terms of the strategic implications at all to the deal.

我們今天仍然很興奮，就像宣布這個消息一樣。然後，關於監管環境和背景，我會將其與過去 14 個月中發生的許多事情的變化結合起來，但就交易的策略影響而言，我們並沒有特別指出這一點。

John, let me just also just say a few things. And of course, we're still separate public companies, so we won't have full access to Discovery's information until after we close the acquisition. But so we continue to expect that we'll achieve the synergies that we estimated when we announced the deal based on the integration budget that we estimated at the announcement.

約翰，我也只想說幾件事。當然，我們仍然是獨立的上市公司，因此在完成收購之前，我們無法完全存取 Discovery 的資訊。但因此，我們仍然預計，我們將根據我們在公告中估計的整合預算，實現我們在宣布交易時估計的協同效應。

And on the risk management side to Andrew's point, we've always said, look, we believe that's going to be a big investment. We continue to believe it's going to be a big investment. They're well down that path. We haven't -- from a far, haven't seen anything to change our estimate for what that will take. But of course, we, of course, will do whatever it takes to get there, but we have a similar view of the magnitude of what the undertaking is as we had before.

就安德魯所提到的風險管理方面而言，我們一直說，看，我們相信這將是一項大投資。我們仍然相信這將是一項巨大的投資。他們已經順利地走在這條路上。從目前情況來看，我們還沒有看到任何可以改變我們對此所需付出努力的估計的事情。當然，我們當然會盡一切努力去實現這一目標，但我們對這項事業的規模的看法與以前類似。

I want to also just make a comment about sort of long-term opportunity. When we announced the deal, we also said that we saw potentially significant long-term strategic and economic opportunities that we did not include in our synergy estimates or the deal model. This would involve moving even more of our business onto the Discover network than what we put into the deal model.

我還想對某種長期機會發表一些評論。當我們宣布這筆交易時，我們也表示，我們看到了潛在的重大長期策略和經濟機遇，但這些機會並未納入我們的協同效應估計或交易模型中。這將涉及將我們的更多業務轉移到 Discover 網路上，而不是交易模式。

The path to get there is to build international acceptance of the Discover Network and enhance and elevate the Discover global network brand. And the more we thought about that, we believe that brand investment is better made as the international acceptance gets to, I'd say, the good place. But as it gets to an even better place, that's probably more when we would lean into really building the sort of global network brand.

實現這一目標的途徑是建立發現網路的國際認可並增強和提升發現全球網路品牌。我們對此思考得越多，就越相信，隨著國際認可度的提高，品牌投資將會變得更好。我想說，這是好事。但隨著情況變得越來越好，我們可能更傾向於真正打造全球網路品牌。

Like many investments we've made over the years, we believe that these investments are longer term in nature and will generate significant benefits that will grow and accumulate over time. So what we're saying here is we had a deal model for very kind of close in benefits that we saw and the associated costs, and that's very much what we see.

就像我們多年來進行的許多投資一樣，我們相信這些投資本質上是長期的，並將產生巨大的利益，這些利益將隨著時間的推移而增長和累積。因此，我們在這裡要說的是，我們有一個交易模型，其中包含我們所看到的非常接近的利益和相關成本，而這正是我們所看到的。

And then additionally, we are excited about longer-term possibilities that will take some -- that's a longer-term quest, that's investments over and a more extended period of time with benefits that would transcend things that we put into the deal model.

此外，我們對一些長期可能性感到興奮——這是一項長期追求，是一段更長時期內的投資，其收益將超越我們在交易模式中投入的內容。

Mihir Bhatia, Bank of America.

米希爾·巴蒂亞，美國銀行。

Just wanted to talk a little bit about just the uncertain macro. Maybe, Rich, it's been a while since we've had what you would call maybe a normal recession. Obviously, we had COVID a few years back. But I was just wondering if you could talk a little bit about just the recession resiliency at Capital One, maybe some of the factors or some of the levers that you can pull if you start seeing the macro deteriorate?

只是想稍微談談不確定的宏觀因素。里奇，也許我們已經有一段時間沒有經歷過所謂的正常經濟衰退了。顯然，幾年前我們就曾感染過 COVID。但我只是想知道您是否可以稍微談一談 Capital One 的經濟衰退適應能力，如果您開始看到宏觀經濟惡化，您可以採取哪些因素或措施？

And just how is it different now than the last time between 10, 15 years since we had one. So just how is Capital One different between the mix changing as you leaned into higher spending improvements in technology. Just how is Capital One different from a recession resilience point of view?

那麼，這次與我們上次（10 到 15 年前）的相比有什麼不同呢？那麼，當您傾向於增加技術支出改善時，Capital One 的組合變化有何不同？從經濟衰退抵禦能力的角度來看，Capital One 究竟有何不同？

Thank you, Mihir. So it's interesting you use the word normal recession. And of course, I smile as I say that because you're right, certainly COVID, it's hard to learn much if anything in COVID. Well, given that, by the way, credit exploded to the best place it's ever been. We'll start with that anomaly.

謝謝你，米希爾。所以你使用「正常衰退」這個詞很有趣。當然，我笑著說，因為你是對的，當然是 COVID，在 COVID 中很難學到任何東西。嗯，順便說一下，信貸激增到了有史以來最好的水平。我們將從這個異常開始。

But, of course, our whole business model works backwards from resilience. That's what it's all about. And every underwriting decision we underwrite to something quite a bit more stressed than the current environment. So we look in the rearview mirror to see results, and then we stress it in every underwriting decision that we make.

但是，當然，我們的整個商業模式都是從彈性開始反向運作的。這就是全部內容。我們承保的每一個承保決定都比當前環境更加緊張。因此，我們會回顧過去來觀察結果，並在做出每個核保決策時強調這一點。

We, of course, I think the whole stress testing exercise that the Fed has led has really, I think, to help push all institutions to get more rigorous in their modeling in that. And we put a lot of energy into that, but I tip my hat to the -- I think some of the resilience modeling that all banks are encouraged to do. And so one needs significant buffers on the capital side buffers in terms of margins and then buffers in terms of flexibility as well.

當然，我認為聯準會主導的整個壓力測試活動確實有助於推動所有機構在其建模方面變得更加嚴謹。我們為此投入了大量精力，但我對一些彈性模型表示敬意——我認為所有銀行都被鼓勵這樣做。因此，我們需要在資本方面有顯著的緩衝，在利潤率方面有顯著的緩衝，在靈活性方面也需要顯著的緩衝。

So one of the real benefits of having a credit card business, well, one of the sort of striking things about a credit card business in a, let's call it, a normal recession, Mihir, is that spending tends to -- and consumers tend to pull back and so you actually get some relief on the balance sheet side.

因此，擁有信用卡業務的真正好處之一，嗯，在正常的經濟衰退中，信用卡業務最引人注目的事情之一，Mihir，就是支出趨於 - 消費者趨於減少，因此你實際上在資產負債表方面得到了一些緩解。

The Fed does not model it that way because they insist that companies continue to lean in and crank up the growth even though empirically, we have never done that in recessions and so on. So you've got the flexibility with respect to the -- there's balance sheet flexibility. The marketing, of course, we have a very big marketing budget. There's recession flexibility there.

聯準會並沒有這樣建模，因為他們堅持要求企業繼續傾斜並提高成長，儘管從經驗上看，我們在經濟衰退等時期從未這樣做過。因此，您擁有與資產負債表靈活性相關的靈活性。當然，對於行銷，我們有非常大的行銷預算。那裡有經濟衰退的靈活性。

I would note that some of our marketing investments, things like lounges, some of the investments at the top of the market are a little more fixed in nature than one might just think about because you can -- when you're sending out solicitations, you can just stop doing that or do a lot less of it.

我想指出的是，我們的一些行銷投資，例如休息室，一些市場頂端的投資，其性質比人們想像的要固定一些，因為當你發出邀請時，你可以停止這樣做，或者少做很多事情。

So there is flexibility on the marketing side. As a percent of the entire marketing budget is probably a little less sort of instantly flexible than it once was, but you have that as well. There are levers within the business on product structures and so on that are additional flexibility.

因此，行銷方面具有靈活性。作為整個行銷預算的百分比，它可能比以前更不具有即時靈活性，但你也有這樣的能力。企業內部的產品結構等方面存在槓桿，可增加彈性。

One thing I would point out in the last normal recession, which Capital One, I think, had a pretty great performance during, I would point out for all of us card players we had a majority of our balance sheet of our card balance sheet with -- our card assets were off balance sheet. And so next time around, we won't have some of the benefits that we had in terms the balance sheet pressures there.

我想指出的一點是，在上一次正常的經濟衰退中，我認為 Capital One 的表現非常出色，我想指出的是，對於我們所有信用卡玩家來說，我們的信用卡資產負債表的大部分內容都是在表外的——我們的信用卡資產。因此，下一次，我們將不再獲得資產負債表壓力的一些好處。

We're under CECL, of course, as well. But if I pull way up on this, your question goes near and dear to what we talk about every day to take our business model, distress it as we underwrite it, to stress it as we manage it, every choice that we make. And I think that paradoxically, the unsecured credit card business.

當然，我們也受 CECL 約束。但是如果我深入探討這個問題，你的問題與我們每天談論的商業模式非常接近，在我們承保時對其進行壓力測試，在我們管理時對其進行強調，以及我們做出的每一個選擇。我認為，無擔保信用卡業務很矛盾。

I think has really great resilience to it. And I say paradoxically because people love to have assets that are collateral. But if you look at most of the bad things that have happened in the world of banking, they happened that the collateral has a collapse in value.

我認為它確實具有很強的適應力。我之所以說矛盾，是因為人們喜歡擁有抵押資產。但如果你看看銀行業發生的大多數壞事，你會發現，它們都是因為抵押品價值暴跌而發生的。

And so the business becomes a lot more unsecured than one thing. The reality of the card business, it's unsecured to start with. And we underwrite it in full knowledge of that and build in the buffers and flexibility to be resilient when really bad times come.

因此，業務變得比以往更加不安全。事實上，信用卡業務從一開始就是不安全的。我們在充分了解這一點的情況下承保，並建立緩衝和靈活性，以便在真正困難時期能夠恢復。

Rich, just in the spirit of what's different this time than the last time maybe a word about we're in a really different place in the technology world and the capabilities that, that gives us to sort of look at way more data and way more algorithms in our underwriting and fine-tune things around the edges. That's also a big change.

Rich，只是想說這次與上次的不同之處，我們處於技術世界的一個真正不同的位置，這讓我們能夠在核保過程中查看更多的數據和演算法，並對邊緣進行微調。這也是一個很大的改變。

Well, the ability we can certainly move quite a bit faster than ever before. It's one thing to decide on credit policy changes. It's another thing for any company to be able to implement it right away.

嗯，我們的能力肯定可以比以前進步得更快。決定信貸政策的改變是一回事。對於任何公司來說，能夠立即實施又是另一回事。

So with the ability to move quickly the ability to gather data at an incredibly granular level across so many different slices of the business is very valuable. The ability to leverage machine learning and AI to diagnostically help us see variances and aberrations that might take humans some precious months to sort of identify.

因此，擁有快速行動的能力以及在如此多的不同業務領域以極其精細的級別收集數據的能力是非常有價值的。利用機器學習和人工智慧進行診斷的能力可以幫助我們發現人類可能需要花費幾個月的時間才能識別的差異和異常。

So I think that one of the big benefits of our tech transformation is the ability to have way better granularity and monitoring. And the monitoring has the opportunity to be full file real-time and diagnostic in its nature, and these things can really help when the economy turns.

所以我認為我們的技術轉型的一大優勢就是能夠擁有更好的粒度和監控。並且監控有機會實現全文件即時和本質上的診斷，當經濟轉向時，這些確實可以提供幫助。

Don Fandetti, Wells Fargo.

富國銀行的唐‧范德蒂 (Don Fandetti)。

Rich, I was wondering if you could talk a little bit about the auto lending business. in terms of how you're thinking about loan growth. You've got a lot of different dynamics like tariffs going on. Are you still leaning in? And do you think that there will be the demand to support that growth?

里奇，我想知道你是否可以談談汽車貸款業務。關於您如何看待貸款成長。你會看到很多不同的動態，像是關稅。你還在靠著嗎？您認為會有需求來支持這種成長嗎？

So well, we feel certainly great about the auto business. You've seen the delinquency and loss performance in the auto business, and it's really quite striking how strong it is. Our auto credit performance consistently strong as a result of the proactive choices we made over the past years where we trimmed around the edges, in card, we trimmed around the edges.

所以，我們對汽車業務確實感覺很好。您已經看到了汽車行業的拖欠和損失表現，其強勁程度確實令人震驚。我們的汽車信貸業績一直保持強勁，這得益於我們過去幾年做出的積極選擇，在信用卡方面，我們進行了精簡。

But in auto, we did even more -- we pulled back sharply in 2022 and 2023 in response to the combination of margin pressure, normalizing credit and inflated vehicle values. But that's put us in a really strong position now with respect to the auto credit performance that you see. Now from a growth point of view, over the past year, we've leaned into the growth to take advantage of the opportunities that we see in the market.

但在汽車領域，我們做得更多——為了應對利潤壓力、信貸正常化和汽車價值膨脹等因素，我們在 2022 年和 2023 年大幅縮減了業務。但就您所看到的汽車信貸表現而言，這讓我們現在處於非常有利的地位。現在從成長的角度來看，在過去的一年裡，我們傾向於利用成長來利用我們在市場上看到的機會。

You've seen our origination volumes. I think they were like 22% higher on a year-over-year basis in the first quarter, and outstandings have now finally moved and were up, I think, 5% year-over-year. We have invested very heavily in technology in the auto business, both in terms of credit underwriting, but also in terms of building our Navigator platform to allow customers and dealers to use the platform to help for a customer to be able to see what the financing on any vehicle on -- in any lots in America and a fraction of a second, what the financing for that individual would be and so from a customer point of view and then a dealer point of view in terms of helping the customer get to the right place with their financing. This platform has also been beneficial with respect to generating good volumes and helping customers both consumers and the dealers.

您已經看到了我們的起源。我認為第一季的未償還債務金額年增了 22%，現在，未償還債務金額終於有所變化，我認為同比增長了 5%。我們在汽車業務的技術方面投入了大量資金，不僅在信用承保方面，而且在構建我們的 Navigator 平台方面，以便客戶和經銷商可以使用該平台幫助客戶了解美國任何地段的任何車輛的融資情況，並在幾分之一秒內了解該個人的融資情況，從而從客戶的角度和經銷商的角度幫助客戶找到正確的融資方式。該平台在產生良好的銷售和幫助消費者和經銷商方面也發揮了有益作用。

So we have a lot of momentum in the business. So now you ask about tariffs. Certainly, I think if tariffs are -- if the tariff wars sort of really continue on, the auto business is I think might be really quite impacted because the immediate effect would be an almost certain increase in via prices. And that would have sort of mixed effects on auto credit. But with production costs rising, supply chain costs rising, you could just really end up with vehicle value disruption in the business.

因此我們的業務發展勢頭強勁。現在您詢問關稅問題。當然，我認為如果關稅——如果關稅戰真的持續下去，汽車行業可能會受到很大影響，因為直接的影響幾乎肯定會導致價格上漲。這會對汽車信貸產生各種影響。但隨著生產成本和供應鏈成本的上升，最終可能會導致汽車價值的下降。

And then we kind of say, well, how would higher vehicle prices, what would be the impact on our auto business, it would actually support the credit performance of our back book by improving equity positions for borrowers and increasing the recovery rates, but for new originations, higher vehicle prices would be a headwind in terms of consumer demand and in terms of credit.

然後我們會說，好吧，更高的汽車價格會對我們的汽車業務產生什麼影響，它實際上會透過改善借款人的股權狀況和提高回收率來支持我們帳簿的信貸表現，但對於新發起的企業來說，更高的汽車價格會對消費者需求和信貸產生不利影響。

And just one other thing to just keep in mind, keep in mind whenever there is tariffs that might gyrate quite a bit. even in the case where tariffs are abruptly removed at some point, you can see vehicle values drop abruptly, which can sort of adversely affect credit in a business like this one.

還有一件事要記住，無論何時，關稅都可能出現很大的波動。即使在某個時候突然取消關稅，你也會看到車輛價值急劇下降，這可能會對這類企業的信貸產生不利影響。

So basically pulling way up, we feel great about our auto business, great about the position we're in and the traction that we're getting. We feel good about the consumer right now. And so we are still leaning in, but it's with a very watchful eye with respect to this uncertain economy.

因此，從根本上來說，我們對我們的汽車業務、我們所處的地位以及我們所獲得的牽引力感到非常滿意。我們現在對消費者感到滿意。因此，我們仍在努力，但對不確定的經濟保持高度警覺。

Thank you.

謝謝。

Bill Carcache, Research Securities.

比爾·卡卡什（Bill Carcache），證券研究公司。

Good evening, Rich and Andrew. Following up on your expense commentary and the choices you're making. Do you think, Rich, may be necessary to adjust your investment priorities as you continue to build out your various businesses while now also allocating capital to the build-out of the network business.

晚上好，Rich 和 Andrew。追蹤您的支出評論和您所做的選擇。里奇，您認為在您繼續拓展各項業務的同時，是否有必要調整投資重點，同時也要為網路業務的拓展分配資金？

And if you could speak more broadly to how focused you are on managing expenses for the revenue environment and generating positive operating leverage along the way as you make these investments?

您能否更廣泛地談談，在進行這些投資的過程中，您如何專注於管理收入環境的費用以及如何產生積極的營運槓桿？

Thanks so much, Bill. We've been focused on operating efficiency improvement for years, as you know. And we'd like to go back to 2013 because that's when we began our technology transformation and started really leaning into investments in technology from that point all the way to today.

非常感謝，比爾。如您所知，多年來我們一直致力於提高營運效率。我們想回到 2013 年，因為那是我們開始技術轉型的年份，從那時起直到今天，我們開始真正傾向於技術投資。

Over that time, we've driven about 700 basis points of improvement even as we've continued to make significant investments in technology and this improvement was driven by significant revenue growth powered by marketing and credit breakthroughs enabled by the technology transformation as well as expense efficiency from process automation, analog cost savings and reduction in legacy tech vendor costs.

在此期間，儘管我們繼續在技術方面進行大量投資，但我們仍實現了約 700 個基點的改進，而這一改進是由技術轉型帶來的營銷和信貸突破所推動的顯著收入增長，以及流程自動化、模擬成本節約和傳統技術供應商成本降低帶來的費用效率所推動的。

So it's not an accident that operating efficiency ratio improvements and significant tech investments have been traveling companions. And that's because technology investments and efficiency improvement are on a shared path as modern technology is the engine of sustained revenue growth and digital productivity gains.

因此，營運效率比率的提高和大量技術投資相輔相成並非偶然。這是因為技術投資和效率改進是同步的，因為現代技術是持續收入成長和數位生產力提高的引擎。

Now 2023 and 2024 witnessed quite a big improvement in the efficiency ratio. I do want to point out that with the late fee risk hanging over the last couple of years. There was some deferral of investments. So with that risk effectively off the table, there's a little catch up there that you see in our numbers now. But our story on efficiency continues to be the same.

現在2023年和2024年的效率比率已經有了相當大的提升。我確實想指出，過去幾年一直存在滯納金風險。一些投資被推遲。因此，在這種風險實際上已經消除的情況下，您現在可以從我們的數據中看到，情況略有改善。但我們關於效率的故事依然如故。

And we continue to have our eyes very focused on the longer term where operating efficiency continues to be an important way that we generate returns.

我們將繼續著眼於長期發展，營運效率仍然是我們創造回報的重要方式。

To your point about priorities, it is not lost on us that we have a lot of opportunities that we are blessed with. We have all the opportunities that come from moving up the tech stack and the more we move up the tech stack, the more there are sort of direct benefits to the business in the form of better customer experiences, more opportunities, better leveraging of data to create marketing and credit opportunities and things like that.

關於您提到的優先事項，我們並沒有忘記，我們擁有很多幸運的機會。我們擁有透過提陞技術堆疊所獲得的所有機會，而且我們越是提昇技術堆疊，就越能為企業帶來直接的利益，包括更好的客戶體驗、更多的機會、更好地利用數據來創造行銷和信貸機會等等。

And we have the Discover deal. And I've talked many times about there's the sort of immediate opportunity that we capture in our deal model. But then there's the longer-term opportunity that comes from really investing in the network, especially internationally, investing in the brand and then really being able to put more business on the network.

我們還有 Discover 協議。我已經多次談到我們在交易模式中抓住的直接機會。但是，還有長期機會，它來自於對網路的真正投資，尤其是國際投資，對品牌的投資，然後真正能夠在網路上開展更多業務。

So in that environment, we spend a lot of time on prioritization and it's a good problem to have as many opportunities as we do. But to the point of your question, we very much keep our big picture in mind and the measuring stick associated with our journey and a very important one of those is our efficiency journey. Thank you.

因此，在那種環境下，我們花費大量時間來確定優先順序，擁有盡可能多的機會是一件好事。但對於您的問題，我們非常重視我們的大局和與我們的旅程相關的衡量標準，其中非常重要的一個是我們的效率之旅。謝謝。

John Hecht, Jefferies.

傑富瑞的約翰·赫克特。

I guess my question is around marketing synergies. On one hand, it seems that the amount of media advertising maybe the physical mailings to the commerce, I mean one plus one is not going to equal two, I think, with those endeavors. On the other hand, Rich, I think you're interested in really focusing on continued brand development, particularly on the global network. So how do we think about the kind of puts and takes of the opportunities for synergies versus the desire to spend and invest in the brand.

我想我的問題是關於行銷協同效應。一方面，我認為，媒體廣告的數量，或許是商業實體郵件的數量，一加一並不等於二。另一方面，Rich，我認為你真正感興趣的是專注於品牌的持續發展，尤其是全球網路的發展。那麼，我們如何看待綜效機會的得失與品牌支出和投資的願望呢？

So Discover. And are you referring to the Discover brand, the Capital One brand, are you referring to both there as your particularly a Discover Point and the synergies associated with Discover?

所以去探索吧。您指的是 Discover 品牌、Capital One 品牌嗎？您指的是 Discover Point 以及與 Discover 相關的綜效嗎？

Correct.

正確的。

Yes. So it's a real blessing to have the opportunity in this acquisition to bring on board with a rare, well-recognized very strong brand. And so we now have with very strong brands. So what we plan to do is we plan to continue, of course, I shouldn't say, of course, because all of this, we've done a lot of thinking about, but we are very, in our views that the Discover Branded is absolutely the right brand for the network and we will continue to invest in that brand and especially build the credibility and the capabilities globally with respect to the brand. We will also continue the Discover brand on the credit card side.

是的。因此，我們非常榮幸能夠透過此次收購，引進一個罕見的、知名的、非常強大的品牌。因此我們現在擁有非常強大的品牌。因此，我們計劃繼續下去，當然，我不應該說，當然，因為我們已經對這一切進行了大量思考，但我們非常認為，Discover Branded 絕對是適合該網絡的品牌，我們將繼續投資該品牌，特別是在全球範圍內建立該品牌的信譽和能力。我們也將在信用卡方面繼續使用 Discover 品牌。

It will be more of a really powerful product brand. Obviously, it's not going to be a corporation brand anymore, but we intend to have it as a strong product brand, and it goes back to what I think is the collective -- the combination of the business model they've created that has generated such amazing results over the year, which the brand plays an important role there. So we will continue to invest in that.

它將成為一個真正強大的產品品牌。顯然，它不再是一個公司品牌，而是我們打算將其打造成一個強大的產品品牌，我認為它回歸到了集體——他們所創造的商業模式的結合，這種結合在過去一年中產生瞭如此驚人的成果，而品牌在其中發揮著重要作用。因此我們將繼續對此進行投資。

Now there are some savings around the edges that we can do in our collective marketing campaigns, I am sure. So there's some benefit there. And I want to make one other comment about investing in the network brand. That is something that we don't plan to come roaring out of this acquisition on national TV really leaning into the network brand.

我確信，現在我們可以透過集體行銷活動來節省一些開支。所以這其中還是有好處的。我還想就投資網路品牌發表另外一點評論。我們不打算透過這次收購來大力推廣國家電視台，而是真正傾向於網路品牌。

What we much more plan to do is -- we believe that the synergies and the whole moves that we have talked about at the time we announced our deal of moving our entire debit business and a portion of our credit card business onto the network.

我們計劃要做的更多是——我們相信，我們在宣布將整個借記卡業務和部分信用卡業務轉移到網路上的交易時談到的協同效應和整體舉措。

We believe that can be done within the context of the current brand and the acceptance and the capabilities that Discover has built so skillfully. What we need to do in order to generate longer-term opportunity is to build the acceptance internationally up to a sort of it when you see it point when it's the right time to lean into brand development of a global brand, a global acceptance and so that -- in terms of the brand spend there, that's more of a delayed thing.

我們相信，在現有品牌以及 Discover 精心打造的接受度和能力的背景下，這是可以實現的。為了創造長期機會，我們需要做的就是在國際上建立認可度，當你看到它是時候傾向於全球品牌的品牌發展、全球認可度時，就品牌支出而言，這更像是一個延遲的事情。

It is something that we certainly plan to lean into over time, but that would come as we see it today, that would come sort of after we have gotten the international acceptance to sort of when you see a point that it's ready to really take this story on TV.

這是我們計劃隨著時間的推移逐漸傾向的事情，但那將是我們今天所看到的那樣，那將在我們獲得國際認可之後，當你看到它已經準備好真正將這個故事搬上電視時。

Erika Najarian, UBS.

瑞銀的 Erika Najarian。

Yes, good evening. Just two quick follow-up questions. First is for you, Andrew. I'm just going all the way back to Ryan's question on ACL. Is there any way to have a neat answer on what the weighted average unemployment rate would be if we took into account the heavier weighting on the downside scenario. And as we look forward for Capital One stand-alone.

是的，晚上好。僅需兩個簡短的後續問題。首先請你來，安德魯。我只是回到 Ryan 關於 ACL 的問題。如果我們考慮到下行情境的較大權重，那麼有沒有什麼方法可以清楚回答加權平均失業率是多少？我們期待 Capital One 的獨立。

Should we think about the ACL ratio given improved credit performance relative to the heightened macro uncertainty? And I did have a follow-up.

鑑於信貸表現相對於宏觀不確定性的增強而有所改善，我們是否應該考慮 ACL 比率？我確實進行了後續跟進。

Yes. In terms of the weighted edge, Erica, our process is one where we take the baseline and then apply various considerations to the downside scenario and uncertainties. So it's not a formulaic multiple scenarios with multiple probabilities that allow us to give you a weighted average a leverage number, which is why we kind of give the qualitative description there.

是的。就加權優勢而言，埃里卡，我們的流程是先採用基線，然後對下行情景和不確定性進行各種考慮。因此，它不是一個具有多種機率的公式化多種場景，它允許我們為您提供加權平均槓桿數字，這就是我們在那裡給出定性描述的原因。

And then in terms of how we think about things looking ahead with the allowance, look, if we continue to see near-term favorability in our credit performance, that's going to bring down coverage all else equal over time, if we see a meaningful worsening in economic outlooks or changes in consumer credit behavior from what we see today that could put upward pressure on our coverage and just given the heightened uncertainty in which we're living at this point, I don't want to try to project where that's going to land a quarter from now until we'll go through our full process at the end of -- in the second quarter, and we'll see where the allowance ultimately lands.

然後，就我們如何看待未來的備抵金問題而言，如果我們繼續看到近期信貸表現的有利條件，那麼隨著時間的推移，在其他條件相同的情況下，覆蓋率將會下降；如果我們看到經濟前景出現顯著惡化，或者消費者信貸行為與今天不同，這可能會對我們的覆蓋率造成上行壓力；考慮到我們所期望的流程在第二季度

Got it. And just my follow-up question. implicit in your response to John Pancari's question, are you also affirming the purchase accounting assumptions from February of 2024? And just confirming that there any adjustments to be made given the heightened uncertainty to the Discover portfolio in terms of credit going forward, it would be on the day two provision, of course, not the purchase credit impaired mark.

知道了。這是我的後續問題。在回答 John Pancari 的問題時，您是否也肯定了 2024 年 2 月起的購買會計假設？並且只是確認，鑑於 Discover 投資組合在未來信貸方面的不確定性增加，是否需要進行任何調整，當然，這將是第二天的準備金，而不是購買信貸減損標記。

Right. Well, we're going to segment their portfolio for PCD and non-PCD and part of that, obviously, it would run through the balance sheet and part of that would run through the P&L on day two. With respect to affirming balance sheet marks, I'll explicitly not affirm the balance sheet marks given that rates and credit and the stock price and a number of other variables have moved.

正確的。好吧，我們將把他們的投資組合細分為 PCD 和非 PCD，其中一部分顯然會貫穿資產負債表，一部分將在第二天貫穿損益表。關於確認資產負債表分數，鑑於利率、信貸、股票價格和許多其他變數已經發生變化，我明確不會確認資產負債表分數。

And so we need to get to day one and do all of our analysis on those marks, and we'll provide the relevant updates at the appropriate time after we get to a close.

因此，我們需要在第一天就對這些標記進行所有分析，並在結束後在適當的時間提供相關更新。

Brian Foran, Truist.

布萊恩·福蘭，Truist。

Hey. I had one on spend and one on the network. On spend, in prior quarters, you've given us the high end versus low end kind of updating commentary. I just wonder if you could give us that and maybe specifically on the tariff reaction, any differences you're observing in high end versus low end? Or is it about the same?

嘿。我有一個關於支出的，還有一個關於網路的。關於支出，在前幾個季度，您已經為我們提供了高端與低端的更新評論。我只是想知道您是否可以告訴我們這一點，特別是關於關稅反應，您觀察到高端和低端有什麼區別嗎？或者說是差不多一樣的？

So Brian, the relative to the tariffs and any early impact that we have seen. We have not seen that a big difference between high end versus low end there. Again, these are very early observations. Spend has generally has picked up a little bit in the last week or two, whether that is a pull forward or whether that's some other effect remains to be seen, but we haven't seen a striking difference on where on the spectrum that falls.

布萊恩，相對於關稅以及我們所看到的任何早期影響。我們還沒有看到高端和低端之間有很大的差異。再次強調，這些都是非常早期的觀察。在過去一兩週，支出總體上有所回升，這究竟是拉動還是其他影響還有待觀察，但我們尚未看到支出在各個方面存在顯著差異。

And then on the network, and I apologize, I feel like I'm going to oversimplify this and ask this in a dumb way, but when I talk to people, I mean, I think everyone sees the value of a globally competitive network. We can just look at the multiples Visa Mastercard at. It also seems like a very long and expensive journey. I'm just trying to unpack what you're signaling. Is it incrementally each year investing in the network?

然後關於網絡，我很抱歉，我覺得我會把這個問題過於簡單化，並且以一種愚蠢的方式提出這個問題，但是當我與人們交談時，我的意思是，我認為每個人都看到了全球競爭網絡的價值。我們可以看看多張 Visa Mastercard。這似乎也是一趟非常漫長且昂貴的旅程。我只是想理解你所傳遞的訊號。每年都會逐步投資網路嗎？

Or is it like, and again, I know I'm simplifying this, I'm not trying to put words in your mouth, but like is there some signaling that like, hey, guys, we might reset the expense outlook to take on Visa Mastercard full stop?

或者就像，再說一次，我知道我正在簡化這個問題，我並不是想把話塞到你嘴裡，但是是否有一些信號表明，嘿，夥計們，我們可能會重新設定支出前景以完全接受 Visa Mastercard？

Yes. So Well, I'm glad you asked that question. We aren't on a quest to replicate Visa and MasterCard's model. It's an extraordinary model they have and one of really all the banks in the United States almost all of them. They are the intermediary between all the banks and the merchants, and of course, they get paid on a few basis points here and there, times the trillions of dollars of transactions.

是的。那麼，我很高興你問了這個問題。我們並不是想要複製 Visa 和 MasterCard 的模式。他們擁有一種非凡的模式，幾乎所有美國銀行都採用了這種模式。他們是所有銀行和商家之間的中介，當然，他們根據數萬億美元的交易額乘以幾個基點來獲得報酬。

It's an amazing business model. By the way, just with respect to that, it is the case that Discover does have on the debit side, they are a network provider for several thousand banks. So I don't want to diminish that particular business model, it's a great thing. It came from their acquisition in 2005 of the Pulse network. And it's a very nice business model, and we would love to grow that.

這是一個令人驚嘆的商業模式。順便說一句，就這一點而言，Discover 在藉記方面確實有優勢，他們是數千家銀行的網路供應商。所以我不想貶低這種特定的商業模式，它是一件很棒的事。這是他們 2005 年收購 Pulse 網路的成果。這是一個非常好的商業模式，我們很樂意發展它。

So I do think that being a network for other financial institutions will be part of the business model over the years. That like most other things, the road to significantly change the game there, probably, again, goes through that same path of building greater global network acceptance and the brand credibility sort of for the network that goes along with that.

因此我確實認為，成為其他金融機構的網路將成為未來幾年商業模式的一部分。就像大多數其他事情一樣，要徹底改變遊戲規則，可能也要走同樣的路，即建立更大的全球網路接受度以及隨之而來的網路品牌信譽。

But anyway, but the biggest opportunity for Capital One beyond the sort of the direct opportunity that we identified with the amount of volume that we moved is to be able to put more of our volume on the network. And it is our view that as we look to do more of that, we, again, those roads lead to because lots of people -- so many of our customers our international travelers. And again, it did discover for a company of their size, I marvel at what they've built globally.

但無論如何，對於 Capital One 來說，除了我們透過轉移的交易量確定的直接機會之外，最大的機會是能夠將更多的交易量放到網路上。我們認為，當我們尋求做更多這樣的事時，這些道路就會再次通往許多人——我們的許多客戶都是國際旅行者。再次，它確實發現，對於他們這種規模的公司來說，他們在全球範圍內所取得的成就令我驚嘆。

Now in the United States, it's virtually -- it's basically accepted everywhere in the United States. Internationally, no one is accepted everywhere, but they've gotten a great head start on that, but we believe that in order to really capitalize on the network and to give the network the scale that in this profoundly scale-driven business, the scale that would really help it and sort of getting the flywheel of scale in this network effect business, all roads lead through building more international acceptance and then really leaning into the global brand associated with that network.

現在在美國，它實際上——基本上在美國各地都被接受。在國際上，沒有人能在所有地方都被接受，但他們在這方面已經取得了很大的領先優勢，但我們相信，為了真正利用網絡，並使網絡在這個深度規模驅動的業務中達到規模，真正有助於它的規模，並在這個網絡效應業務中獲得規模的飛輪，所有道路都通過建立更多的國際認可，然後真正傾向於與該網絡相關的全球品牌。

But as we look at it, the primary payoff of that would be just putting more volume on the business in a very scale-driven business. And then over time, we could also look at other opportunities such as being a network for other financial institutions.

但我們認為，這樣做的主要回報只是在規模驅動的業務中增加業務量。隨著時間的推移，我們還可以尋找其他機會，例如成為其他金融機構的網路。

Robert Wiidhack, Autonomous Research.

羅伯特·威德哈克（Robert Wiidhack），自主研究。

Hey guys. Rich, you've hit on the international acceptance them quite a bit this evening and there internationally, it seems like that's more of a chicken and egg problem where you have to kind of build and catalyze acceptance. I'm wondering if you could share your thoughts on the specific investments strategies or levers you might have to solve that chicken and egg problem internationally and ultimately close the acceptance gap. Thanks.

嘿，大家好。里奇，今晚你多次談到國際認可度，從國際上來看，這似乎更像是一個先有雞還是先有蛋的問題，你必須建立並促進認可。我想知道您是否可以分享您對具體投資策略或槓桿的看法，以便在國際上解決先有雞還是先有蛋的問題，並最終縮小接受度差距。謝謝。

Yes. So if you look at how any of the big networks have built their business, including how Discover has built international acceptance. It's really cobbling together a variety of solutions internationally really through partnerships. In Discovery's case, certainly, and this would be where the leverage is to partner with networks to partner with -- to go through merchant acquirers who can weigh more than one retail time, more at scale, create acceptance to partner with financial institutions, basically card issuing banks in different countries and finally, to go directly to merchants.

是的。因此，如果你看看任何大型網路是如何建立其業務的，包括 Discover 是如何獲得國際認可的。它實際上是透過合作在國際上拼湊各種解決方案。就 Discovery 而言，當然如此，其槓桿作用在於與網路合作——透過可以權衡多個零售時間、更大規模的商家收單機構，與金融機構（基本上是不同國家的發卡銀行）合作，最終直接與商家合作。

They have gotten to their pretty striking levels of acceptance through a combination of those four and it's a boots on the ground, roll up your sleeves, do something, but what I'm comfortable is this is something they've already done. And it's just something that we will lean into and probably lean into it more than they were able to because of the opportunity and the price that we see on the other end of this with the combined scale that we have, to your point, it is a chicken and egg problem.

他們透過這四種方式的結合獲得了相當驚人的認可度，這是一種腳踏實地、捲起袖子、做事的做法，但讓我感到欣慰的是，這是他們已經做過的事情。這只是我們將傾向於做的事情，而且可能比他們更傾向於這樣做，因為我們看到的另一端的機會和價格，以及我們擁有的綜合規模，正如你所說，這是一個先有雞還是先有蛋的問題。

And when you show up, they want to know how much volume you're bringing and as we get people. And as we sign up customers, they want to know how much acceptance we have. So it's a classic chicken and anything, but it's not starting at zero. It's starting at a pretty striking level of acceptance.

當你出現時，他們想知道你帶來了多少銷售以及我們吸引了多少人。當我們簽約客戶時，他們想知道我們的接受度有多高。所以它是經典的雞肉和其他東西，但它不是從零開始的。它的接受程度已經相當驚人。

They've sloped the work that they work backwards from where Americans travel. And so the playbook is there. We would lean into this playbook and then I think the opportunities also are outside of what we've sort of modeled in terms of the benefits in our deal model.

他們的工作方向與美國人的出行方向相反。劇本就在那裡。我們會傾向於這個劇本，然後我認為這些機會也超出了我們在交易模型中建模的利益範圍。

Thanks.

謝謝。

Well, that concludes our Q&A session. Thank you all for joining us on the conference call today, and thank you for your continued interest in Capital One. Have a great evening, everybody.

好了，我們的問答環節到此結束。感謝大家今天參加我們的電話會議，也感謝大家對 Capital One 的持續關注。祝大家晚上愉快。

Thank you. This concludes today's conference call. Thank you for participating. You may now disconnect.

謝謝。今天的電話會議到此結束。感謝您的參與。您現在可以斷開連線。