Capital One Financial Corp (COF) 2024 Q4 法說會逐字稿

Good day, and thank you for standing by. Welcome to the Capital One Q4 2024 earnings call. Please be advised that today's conference is being recorded. (Operator Instructions)

您好，感謝您的支持。歡迎參加 Capital One 2024 年第四季財報電話會議。請注意，今天的會議正在錄音。（操作員指令）

I would now like to hand the conference over to your speaker today, Jeff Norris, Senior Vice President of Finance. Please go ahead.

現在，我想將會議交給今天的發言人、財務高級副總裁傑夫諾里斯 (Jeff Norris)。請繼續。

Thanks, Josh, and welcome, everyone. Just as a reminder, as always, we are webcasting live over the Internet and to access the call on the Internet, please log on to Capital One's website capitalone.com and follow the links from there. In addition to the press release and financials, we have included a presentation summarizing our fourth quarter 2024 results.

謝謝，喬希，歡迎大家。需要提醒的是，與往常一樣，我們將透過網路進行網路直播，若要透過網路存取電話會議，請登入 Capital One 網站 capitalone.com 並從那裡點擊連結。除了新聞稿和財務數據外，我們還提供了一份總結 2024 年第四季業績的簡報。

With me this evening are Mr. Richard Fairbank, Capital One's Chairman and Chief Executive Officer; Mr. Andrew Young, Capital One's Chief Financial Officer. Rich and Andrew are going to walk you through this presentation. To access a copy of the presentation and press release, please go to Capital One's website, click on Investors and click on Financials, and then click on quarterly earnings release.

今晚與我一起出席的還有 Capital One 的董事長兼執行長理查德·費爾班克先生； Andrew Young 先生，Capital One 財務長。Rich 和 Andrew 將引導您完成本次示範。要取得簡報和新聞稿的副本，請造訪 Capital One 的網站，按一下“投資者”，按一下“財務”，然後按一下“季度收益報告”。

Please note that this presentation may contain forward-looking statements. Information regarding Capital One's financial performance and any forward-looking statements contained in today's discussion and the materials speak only as of the particular date or dates indicated in the materials. Capital One does not undertake any obligation to update or revise any of this information, whether as a result of new information, future events or otherwise.

請注意，本簡報可能包含前瞻性陳述。今天的討論和資料中包含的有關 Capital One 財務表現和任何前瞻性陳述的資訊僅代表資料中指明的特定日期的觀點。無論是由於新資訊、未來事件或其他原因，Capital One 均不承擔更新或修改任何此類資訊的義務。

Numerous factors could cause our actual results to differ materially from those described in forward-looking statements. And for more information on these factors, please see the section titled Forward-looking Information in the earnings release presentation and the Risk Factors section in our annual and quarterly reports that are accessible at Capital One's website filed with the SEC.

許多因素可能導致我們的實際結果與前瞻性陳述中所述的結果有重大差異。有關這些因素的更多信息，請參閱收益報告中“前瞻性信息”部分以及我們年度和季度報告中“風險因素”部分，這些報告可在提交給美國證券交易委員會(SEC) 的Capital One 網站上查閱。

Now I'll turn the call over to Mr. Young. Andrew?

現在我將電話轉給楊先生。安德魯？

Thanks, Jeff, and good afternoon, everyone. I will start on slide 3 of tonight's presentation. In the fourth quarter, Capital One earned $1.1 billion or $2.67 per diluted common share. For the full year, Capital One earned $4.8 billion or $11.59 per share.

謝謝傑夫，大家下午好。我將從今晚演講的第 3 張幻燈片開始。第四季度，Capital One 獲利 11 億美元，每股攤薄普通股獲利 2.67 美元。全年來看，Capital One 獲利 48 億美元，每股收益 11.59 美元。

Included in the results for the fourth quarter were adjusting items related to Discover integration costs and a legal reserve build. Net of these adjusting items, fourth quarter earnings per share were $3.09. Full year adjusted earnings per share were $13.96. We also had one notable item in the quarter, which was $100 million of accelerated philanthropy contributions.

第四季的業績包括與 Discover 整合成本和法定儲備金建設相關的調整項目。扣除這些調整項目後，第四季每股收益為 3.09 美元。全年調整後每股收益為 13.96 美元。本季我們還有一件值得注意的事情，那就是 1 億美元的加速慈善捐款。

Pre-provision earnings of $4.1 billion in the fourth quarter were down 13% from the third quarter, driven by higher noninterest expense. The linked quarter increase in noninterest expense was driven by increases in both operating expense and marketing spend. Revenue in the linked quarter increased 2%, driven by higher noninterest income. Provision for credit losses was $2.6 billion in the quarter, up about $160 million relative to the prior quarter. The quarterly increase in provision was driven by higher net charge-offs, partially offset by a larger allowance release.

第四季撥備前利潤為 41 億美元，較第三季下降 13%，原因是非利息支出增加。環比非利息支出的成長是由營業支出和行銷支出的增加所推動的。受非利息收入增加的推動，第三季營收成長了 2%。本季信貸損失準備金為 26 億美元，較上一季增加約 1.6 億美元。季度撥備增加主要是因為淨沖銷額增加，但被撥備釋放增加部分抵銷。

Turning to slide 4. I will cover the allowance in greater detail. We released $245 million in allowance this quarter, and our allowance balance now stands at $16.3 billion. The decrease in this quarter's allowance was driven by releases in our commercial banking and commercial segments. Our total portfolio coverage ratio decreased 20 basis points to 4.96%.

翻到幻燈片 4。我將更詳細地介紹該津貼。本季我們釋放了 2.45 億美元的準備金，目前我們的準備金餘額為 163 億美元。本季準備金的減少是由於我們的商業銀行和商業部門的釋放所致。我們的總投資組合覆蓋率下降了20個基點，至4.96%。

I'll cover the drivers of the changes in allowance and coverage ratio by segment on slide 5. The allowance balance in our domestic card business was flat. The coverage ratio declined 33 basis points, primarily driven by seasonal balances as well as favorable near-term credit trends. In our consumer banking segment, we released $131 million in allowance, resulting in a 22 basis point decrease to the coverage ratio. Vehicle values were stable in the quarter, resulting in an improvement -- improved recoveries outlook, which drove the release.

我將在第 5 張投影片中介紹各部分撥備和覆蓋率變化的驅動因素。國內卡業務撥備餘額持平。覆蓋率下降了 33 個基點，主要原因是季節性餘額以及有利的近期信貸趨勢。在我們的消費者銀行業務部門，我們釋放了 1.31 億美元的撥備，導致覆蓋率下降了 22 個基點。本季汽車價值保持穩定，導致復甦前景改善，從而推動了該數據的發布。

And finally, our commercial banking allowance decreased by $130 million, resulting in a 15 basis point decrease to the coverage ratio. The release was primarily driven by the reduction in criticized loans and to a lesser extent, by charge-offs in the quarter.

最後，我們的商業銀行撥備減少了 1.3 億美元，導致覆蓋率下降了 15 個基點。此次發布的數據主要受批評貸款減少的影響，其次，也受本季沖銷貸款的影響。

Turning to page 6. I'll now discuss liquidity. Total liquidity reserves in the quarter decreased by about $8 billion to approximately $124 billion. Our cash position ended the quarter at approximately $43 billion, down about $6 billion from the prior quarter. The decline in cash was largely driven by seasonally higher card loans and funding maturities, which were partially offset by continued strong growth in consumer banking business deposits. Our preliminary average liquidity coverage ratio during the fourth quarter was 155%.

翻到第 6 頁。我現在來討論流動性。本季總流動性儲備減少約 80 億美元，至約 1,240 億美元。本季末，我們的現金狀況約為 430 億美元，比上一季下降約 60 億美元。現金的下降主要是由於季節性信用卡貸款和融資到期金額增加所致，但被消費者銀行業務存款的持續強勁增長部分抵消。我們第四季的初步平均流動性覆蓋率為155%。

Turning to page 7. I'll cover our net interest margin. Our fourth quarter net interest margin was 7.03%, 8 basis points lower than last quarter, and 30 basis points higher than the year ago quarter. The linked quarter decrease in NIM was primarily driven by lower asset yields, which were only partially offset by lower deposit and wholesale funding costs.

翻到第 7 頁。我將介紹我們的淨利差。我們第四季的淨利差為7.03%，比上一季下降8個基點，比去年同期上升30個基點。淨利差環比下降主要由於資產收益率下降，但存款和批發融資成本下降僅部分抵消了資產收益率下降的影響。

Turning to slide 8. I will end by discussing our capital position. Our common equity Tier 1 capital ratio ended the quarter at 13.5%, the -- 10 basis points lower than the prior quarter. Net income in the quarter was more than offset by the impact of loan growth, dividends and $150 million of share repurchases.

翻到幻燈片 8。最後我想討論一下我們的資本狀況。我們的普通股一級資本比率本季末為 13.5%，比上一季低 10 個基點。本季的淨收入被貸款成長、股息和 1.5 億美元股票回購的影響所抵消。

As a reminder, the announcement of the acquisition of Discover constituted a material business change. Therefore, we continue to be subject to the Federal Reserve's preapproval of our capital actions until the merger approval process has concluded.

提醒一下，收購 Discover 的公告構成了重大業務變更。因此，在合併審批程序結束之前，我們將繼續接受聯準會對我們資本行動的預先批准。

With that, I will turn the call over to Rich. Rich?

說完這些，我會把電話轉給里奇。富有的？

Thanks, Andrew, and good evening, everyone. Slide 10 shows fourth quarter results in our credit card business. Credit card segment results are largely a function of our domestic card results and trends, which are shown on slide 11.

謝謝，安德魯，大家晚上好。幻燈片 10 展示了我們的信用卡業務第四季度的業績。信用卡細分市場的表現很大程度上取決於我們的國內信用卡業績和趨勢，如投影片 11 所示。

We -- in the fourth quarter, our domestic card business delivered another quarter of steady top line growth, strong margins and stable credit. Year-over-year purchase volume growth for the quarter was 7%. Ending loan balances increased $8 billion or about 5% year-over-year. Average loans increased about 6% and fourth quarter revenue was up 9% from the fourth quarter of 2023, driven by the growth in purchase volume and loans.

在第四季度，我們的國內信用卡業務再次實現了穩定的營收成長、強勁的利潤率和穩定的信貸。本季採購量年增 7%。期末貸款餘額較上年增加 80 億美元，增幅約 5%。受購買量和貸款成長的推動，平均貸款成長約 6%，第四季營收較 2023 年第四季成長 9%。

Revenue margin for the quarter increased 55 basis points from the prior year quarter to 18.6%, and -- largely driven by the impact of the end of the Walmart revenue sharing agreement. The charge-off rate for the quarter was 6.06%. And -- the impact of the end of the Walmart loss sharing agreement increased the fourth quarter charge-off rate by roughly 40 basis points. Excluding this impact, the charge-off rate for the quarter would have been 5.66%, up 31 basis points year-over-year.

本季的營收利潤率較去年同期增加 55 個基點至 18.6%，主要受到沃爾瑪營收分享協議終止的影響。本季的沖銷率為 6.06%。並且——沃爾瑪損失分擔協議終止的影響導致第四季度的沖銷率增加了約 40 個基點。除去此影響，本季的核銷率將為 5.66%，較去年同期上升 31 個基點。

And after 20 consecutive months of second derivative improvement, the 30-plus delinquency rate crossed into actual year-over-year improvement. The 30-plus delinquency rate at the end of December was 4.53%, down 8 basis points from the prior year. As a reminder, the end of the Walmart loss sharing agreement did not have a meaningful impact on delinquency rate. On a sequential quarter basis, the charge-off rate was up 45 basis points. The 30-plus delinquency rate was flat compared to the linked quarter.

經過連續 20 個月的二階導數改善，30 多起的拖欠率已實現實際的同比改善。12月底30+貸款拖欠率為4.53%，較前一年下降8個基點。需要提醒的是，沃爾瑪損失分擔協議的終止對拖欠率並沒有產生重大影響。以季度計算，核銷率上升了 45 個基點。與上一季相比，30以上違約率持平。

Domestic card non-interest expense was up 13% compared to the fourth quarter of 2023. The -- operating expense and marketing both increased year-over-year. Total company marketing expense in the quarter was $1.4 billion, up 10% year-over-year.

與 2023 年第四季相比，國內卡非利息支出成長了 13%。營業費用和行銷費用均較去年同期成長。本季公司總行銷費用為 14 億美元，年增 10%。

Our choices in domestic card are the biggest driver of total company marketing. We continue to see compelling growth opportunities in our domestic card business. Our marketing continues to deliver strong new account growth across the domestic card business. Compared to the fourth quarter of 2023 domestic card marketing in the quarter included higher media spend and increased investment in premium benefits and differentiated customer experiences like our travel portal, airport lounges and Capital One Shopping.

我們在國內信用卡方面的選擇是整個公司行銷的最大驅動力。我們繼續看到國內卡業務具有引人注目的成長機會。我們的行銷持續推動國內信用卡業務新帳戶強勁成長。與 2023 年第四季相比，本季的國內卡行銷包括更高的媒體支出以及對優質福利和差異化客戶體驗（如我們的旅遊入口網站、機場休息室和 Capital One Shopping）的更多投資。

Slide 12 shows fourth quarter results in our consumer banking business. Auto originations were up 53% from the prior year quarter. A portion of this growth can be attributed to overall market growth, while the remainder is the result of our strong position to pursue resilient growth in the current marketplace. As a reminder, our choice is to tighten credit and pull back in anticipation of credit score inflation and declining vehicle values were still in effect in the fourth quarter of 2023, resulting in relatively low originations.

投影片 12 展示了我們消費者銀行業務第四季的業績。汽車貸款發起量較去年同期成長了 53%。這一成長的一部分可以歸因於整體市場的成長，其餘部分則歸功於我們在當前市場中追求彈性成長的強大地位。提醒一下，我們選擇收緊信貸並縮減開支，以應對信用評分通膨和汽車價值下降的預期，而這種預期在 2023 年第四季度仍然存在，導致貸款發放量相對較低。

These choices also drove out -- really, basically, they drove strong and stable credit performance that positioned us to lean into current marketplace opportunities and return to originations growth in 2024. With four consecutive quarters of originations growth in 2024, consumer banking loan balances returned to growth in the fourth quarter. Ending loans increased $2.7 billion or about 4% year-over-year, and average loans were up 1%. On a linked-quarter basis, ending loans were up 2% and average loans were up 1%.

這些選擇實際上也推動了強勁而穩定的信貸表現，使我們能夠抓住當前的市場機會，並在 2024 年恢復發起成長。隨著 2024 年連續四個季度的貸款發放量成長，消費銀行貸款餘額在第四季度恢復成長。期末貸款較上年增加 27 億美元，增幅約 4%，平均貸款增加 1%。與上一季相比，期末貸款增加 2%，平均貸款增加 1%。

Compared to the year ago quarter, ending consumer deposits grew about 7% and average consumer deposits were up about 8%. And consumer banking revenue for the quarter was up about 1% year-over-year. Growth in loans and deposits was partially offset by a higher year-over-year average deposit interest rate. Noninterest expense was up about 10% compared to the fourth quarter of 2023, driven largely by the unique fourth quarter items Andrew discussed as well as increased auto originations and continued technology investments.

與去年同期相比，期末消費者存款成長約 7%，平均消費者存款成長約 8%。本季消費者銀行業務收入年增約 1%。貸款和存款的成長被同比較高的平均存款利率部分抵消。與 2023 年第四季相比，非利息支出成長了約 10%，這主要得益於安德魯討論的第四季度獨特項目以及汽車發起量的增加和持續的技術投資。

The auto charge-off rate for the quarter was 2.32%, up 13 basis points year-over-year. The 30-plus delinquency rate was 5.95%, down 39 basis points year-over-year, largely as the result of our choice to tighten credit and pull back in 2022, and -- auto charge-offs have been strong and stable on a seasonally adjusted basis.

本季的自動沖銷率為2.32％，較去年同期上升13個基點。30 以上的拖欠率為 5.95%，年減 39 個基點，這主要是由於我們選擇在 2022 年收緊信貸並縮減開支，而且汽車沖銷一直保持強勁和穩定經季節性調整後。

Slide 13 shows fourth quarter results for our commercial banking business. Compared to the linked quarter, ending loan balances were essentially flat. Average loans were down about 1%. Both ending and average deposits were up about 4% from the linked quarter. Fourth quarter revenue was up 7% from the linked quarter and noninterest expense was up by about 5%.

投影片 13 展示了我們的商業銀行業務第四季的業績。與上一季相比，期末貸款餘額基本上持平。平均貸款下降約1%。期末存款和平均存款均較上一季上漲約 4%。第四季營收較上季成長 7%，非利息支出成長約 5%。

I -- the commercial banking annualized net charge-off rate for the fourth quarter increased 4 basis points from the sequential quarter to 0.26%. The commercial criticized performing loan rate was 6.35%, down 131 basis points compared to the linked quarter. The criticized nonperforming loan rate decreased 16 basis points to 1.39%.

I－第四季商業銀行年化淨沖銷率較上一季上升4個基點至0.26%。商業銀行不良貸款率為6.35%，季減131個基點。受批評的不良貸款率下降16個基點至1.39%。

We -- in closing, we continued to post strong and steady results in the fourth quarter. We delivered another quarter of top line growth in domestic card loans, purchase volume, and revenue. In the auto business, we posted growth in originations for the fourth consecutive quarter and the return to year-over-year growth in loan balances and consumer credit trends remained stable. Our full year operating efficiency ratio net of adjustments was 42.35%, consistent with our guidance of the low 42s even after incurring $100 million in accelerated philanthropy contributions.

最後，我們在第四季繼續取得強勁而穩定的業績。我們國內信用卡貸款、購買量和收入又實現了一個季度的成長。在汽車業務方面，我們連續四個季度實現貸款發放量成長，貸款餘額年增，消費信貸趨勢保持穩定。我們全年經調整後的營業效率比率為 42.35%，即使在發生 1 億美元的加速慈善捐款後，仍符合我們預期的 42% 的低點。

And turning to the Discover acquisition. The shareholder votes are scheduled for February 18, and we continue to work closely with the Federal Reserve, the OCC and the Department of Justice as our applications continue to work their way through the regulatory approval process. We remain well positioned to complete the acquisition early in 2025, and -- subject to regulatory and shareholder approval.

接下來是 Discover 的收購。股東投票定於 2 月 18 日舉行，我們將繼續與聯準會、美國貨幣監理署和司法部密切合作，我們的申請將繼續通過監管審批程序。我們仍有可能在 2025 年初完成收購，但需獲得監管部門和股東的批准。

Pulling way up, the acquisition of Discover is a singular opportunity. It will create a consumer banking and global payments platform with unique capabilities, modern technology, powerful brands and a franchise of more than 100 million customers. It delivers compelling financial results and offers the potential to enhance competition and create significant value for merchants and customers.

從長遠來看，收購 Discover 是一個獨特的機會。它將創建一個具有獨特能力、現代技術、強大品牌和超過 1 億客戶特許經營權的消費者銀行和全球支付平台。它提供了令人信服的財務業績，並有可能增強競爭力並為商家和客戶創造巨大價值。

And now we'll be happy to answer your questions. Jeff?

現在我們很樂意回答您的問題。傑夫？

Thank you, Rich. We will now start the Q&A session. Remember, as a courtesy to other investors and analysts who may wish to ask a question, please limit yourself to one question plus a single follow-up. And if you have any follow-up questions after the Q&A session, the Investor Relations team will be available after the call. Josh, please start the Q&A.

謝謝你，里奇。我們現在開始問答環節。請記住，為了尊重其他可能想要提問的投資者和分析師，請將自己的提問限制在一個問題加上一個後續問題上。如果您在問答環節後有任何後續問題，投資者關係團隊將在通話結束後為您提供協助。喬希，請開始問答環節。

(Operator Instructions) Ryan Nash, Goldman Sachs.

（操作員指示）瑞安·納什（Ryan Nash），高盛。

So Rich, delinquencies have been in line or better for nine straight months losses, and you talked about delinquencies now being down on a year-over-year basis and losses have sort of followed suit, but at a little bit of a slower pace. And you've outlined a lot of the reasons deferred charge-offs, the press recoveries.

所以，Rich，連續 9 個月的違約率都保持在合理水平甚至更好，你剛才也談到，目前的違約率同比有所下降，損失也隨之減少，但速度有所放緩。您已概述了許多延期沖銷和新聞追償的原因。

But when you think about credit from here, just broadly, what are you seeing from the consumer? And how are you thinking about loss performance as well as any other factors that could be impacting losses? And do you think we're on a downward trajectory from here? And I have a follow-up.

但是當您從這裡考慮信貸時，廣義上講，您從消費者那裡看到了什麼？您如何看待損失表現以及其他可能影響損失的因素？您認為從現在起我們就會走下坡嗎？我還有一個後續問題。

Thank you, Ryan. So let me start by just talking about the health of the consumer, and then maybe I'll turn and talk about the credit performance at Capital One.

謝謝你，瑞安。因此，我首先想談談消費者的健康狀況，然後再談 Capital One 的信用表現。

So the US Consumer continues to be a source of strength in the overall economy. The labor market remains strong, and we saw signs of softening in the first half of 2024. But in the second half of the year, the unemployment rate has been stable and job creation data has shown renewed strength. Incomes are growing steadily in real terms as inflation settles out a bit.

因此，美國消費者仍是整體經濟的力量來源。勞動市場依然強勁，我們在 2024 年上半年看到了疲軟跡象。但下半年失業率維持穩定，就業成長數據再度強勁。隨著通貨膨脹逐漸穩定，實際收入正在穩定成長。

Consumer debt servicing burdens are stable, near pre-pandemic levels. Consumers have higher bank account balances than before the pandemic. Now of course, the circumstances of individual consumers and households are highly variable. And so talking in averages doesn't always fully cover what's going on.

消費者債務償還負擔穩定，接近疫情前的水準。消費者的銀行帳戶餘額比疫情前更高。當然，個人消費者和家庭的情況是高度多樣化的。因此，用平均值來談論並不總是完全反映正在發生的事情。

We do see some pockets -- as I've been saying for some time now, we do see some pockets of pressure related to the cumulative effects of inflation and elevated interest rates among consumers whose incomes have not kept up with inflation or who have high debt servicing burdens. And of course, there's still some inflation pressure and longer-term interest rates strikingly have increased since the Fed started lowering rates in September.

我們確實看到了一些壓力——正如我一段時間以來一直在說的那樣，我們確實看到了一些與通貨膨脹和利率上升的累積效應相關的壓力，這些壓力出現在那些收入跟不上通貨膨脹或收入較高的消費者身上。當然，通膨壓力仍然存在，自聯準會9月開始降息以來，長期利率顯著上升。

So we do see a bit of a disconnect between the average consumer and the folks closer to the margin. And you can see that, for example, in payment rates in our card business. On the one hand, card payment rates remain, on average, meaningfully above pre pandemic levels. And this is true overall and within each of our major customer segments. On the other hand, the proportion of customers making just the minimum payment is also running somewhat above pre-pandemic levels, which is consistent with our card delinquencies running above pre-pandemic levels.

因此，我們確實看到一般消費者和邊緣消費者之間存在一些脫節。例如，您可以從我們的信用卡業務的支付率中看到這一點。一方面，信用卡支付率平均仍顯著高於疫情前的水平。總體而言，以及對於我們每個主要客戶群而言，情況都是如此。另一方面，僅支付最低還款額的客戶比例也略高於疫情前的水平，這與我們的信用卡拖欠率高於疫情前的水平相一致。

Now, I should add that we're seeing this minimum payment effect across this credit spectrum. I'm not making a point here about the low end of the market or even about subprime. In fact, if anything, the lower end appears to be doing relatively better at the moment.

現在我應該補充一點，我們在整個信用範圍內都看到了這種最低支付效應。我在這裡並不是要談低端市場，甚至不是要談次級房貸。事實上，如果有什麼不同的話，那就是目前低端市場表現相對較好。

So just pulling up, I believe we're almost certainly still seeing some pandemic-related effects like delayed charge-offs from the period of unprecedented stimulus and forbearance in 2020 and 2021 and 2022. And -- this effect is impossible to isolate, but we can infer it from our own credit trends and industry credit trends over the past several years.

因此，綜合來看，我相信我們幾乎肯定會看到一些與疫情相關的影響，例如 2020 年、2021 年和 2022 年前所未有的刺激和寬容時期的延遲沖銷。而且——這種影響是不可能孤立出來的，但我們可以從過去幾年我們自己的信貸趨勢和行業信貸趨勢中推斷出來。

But pulling up on the consumer. I think consumers are in good shape compared to most historical benchmarks. There are -- as we've been saying for some time, there are pockets of pressure that have to work their way through before levels can get down -- credit loss levels can get down to sort of pre-pandemic levels. But I think the consumer story is very consistent with what I've been saying for a number of quarters, and it is very solid.

而是拉動消費者。我認為與大多數歷史基準相比，消費者狀況良好。正如我們一段時間以來一直在說的那樣，在信貸損失水平下降到一定程度之前，必須先解決一些壓力，使信貸損失水平降至疫情前的水平。但我認為消費者的故事與我幾個季度以來所說的非常一致，而且非常可靠。

So let me turn to Capital One Credit. Over the course of 2024, our card delinquencies have moved in line with normal seasonality with losses following about a quarter behind. Now -- as a reminder, earlier this year, we flagged that changes in the level and timing of tax refunds due to tax law changes were probably changing seasonal credit patterns in our card business.

那麼就讓我來談談 Capital One Credit。在 2024 年期間，我們的信用卡拖欠率與正常季節性保持一致，損失緊隨其後約一個季度。現在 - 提醒一下，今年早些時候，我們指出，由於稅法變化而導致的退稅水平和時間的變化可能會改變我們的信用卡業務的季節性信用模式。

We derived new seasonality benchmarks for card delinquencies based on post-pandemic performance. And those benchmarks have less amplitude in both directions than in the past. So we've now had a full year to look at what we were hypothesizing as the new seasonality benchmark. And as we now look at the whole year, this experience is very confirmatory, and we very much believe that we've got the benchmark right.

我們根據疫情後的表現，制定了新的信用卡拖欠季節性基準。而且這些基準在兩個方向上的幅度都比過去還要小。所以我們現在有了整整一年的時間來研究我們假設的新季節性基準。現在回顧全年，這項經驗非常具有證明力，我們非常相信我們得到的基準是正確的。

And when we first saw delinquencies settling out, it is clear that really for the whole year now, we've been calling stabilization. We've not been declaring a peak or declaring that credit would improve from here, but we can now look at the whole year, and see a really nice stabilization.

當我們首次看到拖欠情況得到解決時，很明顯，實際上，今年全年我們都在呼籲穩定。我們並沒有宣布信貸已達到峰值，也沒有宣布信貸將從現在開始改善，但現在我們可以縱觀全年，看到一個非常好的穩定狀態。

In the fourth quarter, and again, you saw this in the month we just reported, we saw our delinquencies improve on a seasonally adjusted basis in the quarter for the first time since normalization began, and they ended the year slightly lower on a year-over-year basis. So that's certainly an encouraging sign.

在第四季度，正如我們在剛剛報告的月份中看到的那樣，我們的拖欠率自正常化開始以來首次在季節性調整的基礎上有所改善，並且年底的拖欠率同比略有下降。去年同期相比。這無疑是個令人鼓舞的跡象。

Looking ahead, we're not giving guidance on future credit. But over time, there are a number of forces that play out. Our recoveries inventory will continue to rebuild, and that should be a gradual tailwind to our losses over time, all else equal. Still high interest rates will probably remain a source of pressure for some consumers, especially those with higher debt servicing burdens. And there still is, we believe, the phenomenon of delayed charge-offs.

展望未來，我們不會給予有關未來信貸的指引。但隨著時間的推移，會出現多種因素發揮作用。我們的回收庫存將繼續重建，在其他條件相同的情況下，隨著時間的推移，這應該會逐漸減少我們的損失。高利率可能仍會成為部分消費者的壓力來源，特別是那些債務負擔較重的消費者。我們認為，延遲沖銷的現象仍然存在。

And of course, this effect is hard to measure and certainly hard to forecast. But over time, it should play through. But how long it plays out, that's just something that is just a matter of speculation. I think we will eventually get back to the place where traditional labor market indicators are the main drivers of change in consumer credit. But that will -- will still take some time.

當然，這種影響很難衡量，也很難預測。但隨著時間的推移，它應該能夠發揮作用。但其持續時間有多長，還只是猜測而已。我認為我們最終將回到傳統勞動市場指標成為消費信貸變化的主要驅動力的階段。但這仍需要一些時間。

And finally, as we move into the new year, we'll keep an eye on the level and timing of tax refunds since we know these can materially affect seasonal movements in card credit.

最後，隨著新的一年的到來，我們將密切關注退稅的水平和時間，因為我們知道這些會對信用卡的季節性變化產生重大影響。

Got it. If I can throw in one high-level follow-up. So Rich, efficiency improvement has been a hallmark of Capital One for the last seven or eight years ex a small period during COVID. You recently talked about investments you wanted to make in the network once the deal hopefully closes at some point in the first quarter. .

知道了。如果我可以提出一個高層次的後續問題。所以，Rich，除了疫情期間的一小段時期外，過去七、八年來，效率提升一直是 Capital One 的標誌。您最近談到，希望在第一季某個時候交易完成後，對網路進行投資。。

I guess the question is, do you expect to continue to be on an efficiency journey fully recognizing that the cost saves obviously make it easier? But just curious how you're thinking about efficiency for the consolidated company over the medium term, fully recognizing that there's going to be a lot of noise in the results?

我想問題在於，您是否希望繼續走上提高效率的道路，同時充分認識到成本節省顯然會使事情變得更容易？但我只是好奇，您如何看待合併後公司的中期效率，是否充分認識到結果中會有很多噪音？

So, we look forward to the completion of our deal and actually really getting inside the financials and the performance and all the details of the business -- the businesses at this rather remarkable company, Discover. But as we've talked about, when we look still from the outside, we see just a great opportunity there. And of course, we have said there are three areas that are going to need continued investment.

因此，我們期待交易的完成，並真正了解財務狀況、業績和業務的所有細節——這家相當出色的公司 Discover 的業務。但正如我們談到的，當我們從外部觀察時，我們會看到那裡有一個巨大的機會。當然，我們已經說過有三個領域需要持續投資。

When we think about virtually anything that -- all the strategic upside of this Discover deal is sort of all roads lead through three areas, kind of obvious areas of continued investment. And the first, of course, is compliance and risk management. And Discovery has really been leaning into that. And we, of course, are doing everything we can to prepare to continue to lean into that, and we'll do whatever it takes on that front. Obviously, that's an investment.

當我們思考幾乎所有事情時——這項 Discover 交易的所有策略優勢都指向三個領域，這顯然是持續投資的領域。首先當然是合規和風險管理。而探索頻道確實已經傾向於此。當然，我們正在盡一切努力做好準備，並繼續朝著這一目標邁進，我們將在這方面盡一切努力。顯然，這是一項投資。

The second is we -- is network acceptance. We've talked about how struck we are and how struck we were to find out and confirm just how good the acceptance is in the United States for Discover. You can see, in fact, they've been putting some ads on TV sort of touting that. And it's a very good story. And internationally, they've been investing there and focusing on where their customers travel and they've made a lot of progress there.

第二是我們--是網路接受度。我們討論過我們是多麼震驚，以及我們多麼震驚地發現並確認 Discover 在美國被接受得如此之好。事實上，你可以看見，他們已經在電視上播放一些廣告來宣揚這一點。這是一個非常好的故事。在國際上，他們一直在投資並關注客戶的出行地點，並且已經取得了巨大進展。

When we look at our customer base at Capital One and where we would love to be over time in terms of being in a position to add more and more volume onto the Discover Network, we think an incredibly important objective is to increase the depth and breadth of acceptance internationally, sloping the work, of course, working backwards here from where our customers and Discover's travel. So that's going to be a multiyear thing that that's a very important strategic imperative, I think, for us.

當我們審視 Capital One 的客戶基礎，以及我們希望隨著時間的推移，能夠為 Discover Network 增加越來越多的流量時，我們認為一個非常重要的目標是增加 Discover Network 的深度和廣度在國際上得到認可，當然，這項工作是從我們的客戶和Discover 的旅行地向後推進的。所以我認為這對我們來說將是一個多年的事情，並且是一個非常重要的戰略要務。

And then the third one will be building the network brand. We plan to keep the name Discover for the network. We think it's a great brand. And we're really happy with the underlying reality of where acceptance is. We know there are challenges in terms of consumer perception relative to those realities, and we know also we need to, in fact, build the international reality and then the brand perception that follows that.

第三個是打造網路品牌。我們計劃保留該網路的名稱「Discover」。我們認為這是一個偉大的品牌。我們對於接受的根本現實感到非常高興。我們知道，相對於這些現實，消費者認知上有挑戰，我們也知道，事實上，我們需要建立國際現實，然後再建立隨之而來的品牌認知。

So those are the three strategic -- the kind of obvious and strategic investment areas that we've been identifying really since the start of the deal. And back to your question about what do we think -- how do you think -- how do we think that fits in relative to efficiency ratio? We, of course, on the Capital One side have had a long decade-long journey of continuing to improve operating efficiency ratio. And it's striking that, that improvement has come even as we have continued to really ramp up investment in technology.

所以，這些就是我們自交易開始以來就一直在確定的三個策略性、明顯的策略性投資領域。回到您的問題，我們認為什麼——您認為如何——我們認為這與效率比率如何相符？當然，我們 Capital One 方面已經經歷了長達十年的持續提高營運效率比率的歷程。令人驚訝的是，即使我們繼續增加對科技的投資，這種進步仍然取得了。

Now the way that paradox works is the technology is -- we're also investing more in technology and at the same time, getting all the benefits on the efficiency side, both in terms of growth and in terms of costs that come from such an investment in technology. So the engine that drives operating efficiency ratio strategically, will continue at Capital One, and it should continue with the combined institution as well.

現在悖論的運作方式是技術——我們也在技術上投入更多，同時在效率方面獲得所有好處，無論是在成長方面，還是在成本方面，都是如此技術投資。因此，策略性地推動營運效率比率的引擎將繼續在 Capital One 運行，並且也應在合併後的機構中繼續運作。

Now then you ask, will the big three investment areas that we talk about, what will that do to operating? I think we always at Capital One, have strategic imperatives that we're investing in. I think the overall picture of how Capital One's tech journey helps -- one of the important ways investors get paid is through operating efficiency improvement. I think that story to me, stays strategically intact even as we have new investment areas because we'll also have new areas to capture synergy and growth opportunities and things that really wouldn't have been possible for either of our companies alone.

那麼您可能會問，我們談論的三大投資領域會對營運產生什麼影響？我認為，在 Capital One，我們始終都有正在投資的策略要務。我認為 Capital One 的技術之旅的整體情況有助於投資者獲得回報的重要方式之一是透過提高營運效率。我認為，即使我們有了新的投資領域，這個故事對我來說仍然具有戰略意義，因為我們還將擁有新的領域來抓住協同效應和成長機會以及我們任何一家公司單獨無法實現的事情。

So thanks for the question. Operating efficiency is a really important way that we create value for investors. And in the long run, we continue to really see increased opportunities there.

感謝您的提問。營運效率是我們為投資者創造價值的一個非常重要的方式。從長遠來看，我們確實繼續看到那裡有更多的機會。

Next question, please.

請回答下一個問題。

Terry Ma, Barclays.

巴克萊銀行的馬特里 (Terry Ma)。

I wanted to follow up on credit first. It seems the trend that we've seen for the second derivative suggest there's room for that to continue to go lower. Is there some sort of framework to think about how much lower DQs and can trend going forward? And is there anything in the near term that can cause the second derivative to inflect higher again? And I have a follow-up.

我想先跟進一下信用狀況。我們看到的二階導數的趨勢似乎顯示它還有繼續走低的空間。是否存在某種框架來思考 DQ 會降低多少以及未來的趨勢如何？短期內是否存在什麼因素可以導致二階導數再次走高？我還有一個後續問題。

So Terry, yes, so thank you for the question. Obviously, well, since the founding of the company, we've always had our microscopes out looking at delinquencies because they're the single best predictor of credit of all the metrics, there are many metrics we watch, but that certainly is at the top of the list.

是的，特里，謝謝你的提問。顯然，自公司成立以來，我們一直在密切關注違約情況，因為這是所有指標中唯一最好的信用預測指標，我們關注的指標有很多，但這肯定是最重要的。

And it is, I think, a really important -- it's certainly a gratifying milestone to where finally the second derivative across the horizontal axis that effectively. And we certainly note that milestone. The first thing I would say about as we all get our microscopes out to look at trends on a monthly basis is to just talk about seasonality itself. And we don't publish a seasonality curve per se because there's no precise benchmark with which to do it. But we certainly like to guide our investors about how we think about that.

我認為，這是非常重要的——無疑是一個令人滿意的里程碑，它最終使橫軸上的二階導數得以有效計算。我們當然注意到了這一里程碑。當我們用顯微鏡觀察每個月的趨勢時，我想說的第一件事就是談論季節性本身。我們不會發布季節性曲線本身，因為沒有精確的基準來做這件事。但我們當然希望引導投資人了解我們對此的看法。

Seasonality for Capital One has tended to have more amplitude up and down over the course of the year than most other card players. And one might ask, why is that? We believe that the biggest driver of seasonality, while there are several, the biggest driver of seasonality is tax refunds. And since we have a larger subprime book than most other players who really don't do subprime, those customers do tend to have higher seasonality in their in their credit performance than folks higher upmarket.

與大多數其他信用卡公司相比，Capital One 的季節性變化在一年中往往具有更大的波動幅度。有人可能會問，這是為什麼？我們認為，季節性的最大驅動因素，雖然有很多，但季節性的最大驅動因素是退稅。而且由於我們擁有比大多數不從事次級抵押貸款業務的其他參與者更大的次級抵押貸款帳簿，因此這些客戶的信用表現往往比高端市場的客戶具有更高的季節性。

So I think that's why Capital One has a greater seasonality effect. And for these customers, in particular, tax refunds certainly in terms of the monthly flow of cash can end up creating something very nice that comes seasonally and some of that makes its way into payments.

所以我認為這就是為什麼 Capital One 的季節性影響更大。特別是對於這些客戶來說，以每月現金流量計算的退稅最終可以創造一些季節性的非常好的收益，其中一部分會用於支付。

Now the changes in the tax withholding rules a few years ago, led to fewer tax refunds and lower average refund payments, and the IRS was also paying certain refunds later than before. So that created a lot of noise, as I've been saying on recent calls, you'd think it would be easy to reestablish a seasonality curve, but while credit was normalizing, so dramatically, it was sometimes swamping the seasonality effect.

幾年前稅收預扣規則的變化導致退稅減少和平均退稅支付降低，而且國稅局也比以前更晚支付某些退稅。所以這引起了很多噪音，正如我在最近的電話會議中所說的那樣，你會認為重新建立季節性曲線很容易，但是當信貸如此戲劇性地正常化時，它有時會淹沒季節性效應。

But we created this detrended seasonal curve from 2023 to the best we could, and that turned out to really be right on for 2024. If I were to pull up and summarize what we saw in 2024. 2024 settled out with fewer refunds paid than before the pandemic at about 25% lower total refund volume in real terms. Delinquencies moved with our new post-pandemic seasonality benchmarks, which have similar timing, but if I were to summarize what this new curve versus the one we've had for many years, it appears to have about 35% to 40% less amplitude in both directions than in the past.

但我們盡最大努力創建了 2023 年的去趨勢季節性曲線，事實證明這對 2024 年來說確實是正確的。如果我要總結我們在 2024 年看到的情況，那麼 2024 年支付的退款金額比疫情之前要少，實際總退款額下降了約 25%。違約率隨著我們新的疫情後季節性基準而變化，這兩個基準的時間點相似，但如果我要總結一下這條新曲線與我們多年來一直使用的曲線相比，它的幅度似乎減少了約35% 至40%。

By the way, just a note for a second on auto, all of this also happens in auto seasonality, but in an even faster and more concentrated way we tend to see auto delinquencies at their seasonal low in Q1 and losses in Q2. And this year, that seasonal improvement was delayed a bit. So that's the backdrop.

順便說一句，關於汽車，需要注意的是，所有這些也發生在汽車季節性中，但以更快、更集中的方式，我們傾向於看到汽車拖欠率在第一季度達到季節性低點，在第二季度出現損失。而今年，這種季節性的改善稍微延後了。這就是背景。

For now talking about the credit performance that we see. If you start Terry, with the foundation that the consumer is in very good shape, the economy is in quite good shape overall, one would certainly feel there's sort of a gravitational pull towards even better credit in the business that is helped by the math associated with recoveries, that are our recoveries rate has been very constant but the recovery inventory that we have had to collect on got very small during the pandemic, and that has been replenishing.

現在談論我們看到的信用表現。如果你從消費者狀況非常好、經濟整體狀況相當好的基礎上開始，特里肯定會感覺到，在與數學相關的幫助下，企業信用會得到更好的提升。 ，但在疫情期間我們必須收集的回收庫存非常少，而且還在不斷補充。

And so there's sort of a good guy gradually coming as recoveries fully restore. And then that really gets us to whatever effects there are of inflation, whatever effects there are on the consumers, on the tails that are not in as good shape as sort of the averages that we all look at. And that's -- and what we see there is probably the way actually that the delayed charge-offs are actually playing out. They're probably playing out exactly through these consumers on the tail that are not -- they're still struggling at the margin.

因此，隨著經濟復甦的全面恢復，好事情就會逐漸出現。然後這實際上使我們了解通貨膨脹的任何影響，無論它對消費者有何影響，對尾部的影響都不如我們所看到的平均值那麼好。這就是 — — 我們所看到的可能就是延遲沖銷的實際結果。他們可能正是透過這些尾部的消費者來發揮作用——他們仍然在邊緣上掙扎。

So the credit metrics are looking great. We have more solid benchmarks, Terry. The consumer is in a great place. But I think the sort of bigger picture phenomenon of delayed charge-offs that still has intuitively to play out and sort of these effects going on at the tail puts us in a position not to be declaring that things are headed down from here, but it's certainly positive indicators that we see at the margin.

因此信用指標看起來很好。我們有更可靠的基準，特里。消費者處於非常有利的地位。但我認為，延遲沖銷的更大現象仍然直觀地發揮作用，而這些在尾部發生的影響使我們無法宣布事情從現在開始走下坡路，但這是我們在邊際上看到的肯定是積極的指標。

Got it. That's helpful. Maybe just to talk about the Auto business. You called out the loan book returned to growth this quarter. Should we expect you to lean into that and see loan growth accelerate?

知道了。這很有幫助。也許只是談論汽車業務。您指出，本季貸款餘額恢復成長。我們是否應該期待您傾向於此並看到貸款成長加速？

And maybe can you just talk about the overall profitability of the loans we're booking today versus what you've seen historically?

您能否談談我們今天預訂的貸款的整體盈利能力與歷史記錄相比如何？

So, we feel very good about the Auto business. The credit performance is really striking. And in fact, let's just savour something that is, I think, an outlier relative to the industry. But our auto delinquencies have remained consistently below pre-pandemic levels, and they've been lower on a year-over-year basis for the past two quarters.

因此，我們對汽車業務非常滿意。信用表現確實引人注目。事實上，我認為，讓我們盡情享受一些相對於這個行業來說異常的東西。但我們的汽車貸款拖欠率一直低於疫情前的水平，而且過去兩個季度的同比水平也有所下降。

And -- so the Auto business is -- there are many similar things about our Card business and the Auto business, but if you were to compare the two, the degree with which we intervened in the business and trimmed credit around the edges, it might have been even more dramatic than the term around the edges, what we did in the Auto business over the last over the last few years when we were worried about margin pressures in the business as prices were not being sort of past -- inflation pressures were not being passed through.

汽車業務也是如此，我們的信用卡業務和汽車業務有很多相似之處，但如果要比較兩者，我們幹預業務和削減信貸的程度，可能比邊緣一詞更具戲劇性，過去幾年我們在汽車業務中所做的就是擔心利潤率壓力，因為價格並沒有達到過去的通膨壓力沒有被通過。

So there were margin pressures. There were declining vehicle values and there was inflation of credit scores. So all of that led us to pull back. And each of those have -- sort of have been resolving themselves. You asked about margins.

因此存在利潤壓力。車輛價值下降，信用評分上漲。所以所有這些都導致​​我們撤退。而且每個問題都已經解決。您詢問的是利潤率。

The margins are sort of much more sort of normal in the business right now. The grade inflation on credit scores is resolving itself as credit normalizes. Vehicle values, we'll have to continue to keep an eye on those.

目前，該行業的利潤率比較正常。隨著信用逐漸正常化，信用評分等級膨脹的問題逐漸解決。我們必須持續關注車輛價值。

But pulling way up on the shoulders of a lot of the changes that we have made and the technology that we have massively invested in this business in underwriting and in originations and in our auto navigator platform, all of those put us in a position to feel bullish about leaning into Auto and I think we -- all the trends that we see on margins, credit and competition, we feel good about, and that lines up to a story of leaning in on the Auto business.

但是，憑藉著我們所做的許多改變，以及我們在承保、發起和自動導航平台業務中投入的大量技術，所有這些都讓我們能夠感受到我們對向汽車行業傾斜持樂觀態度，我認為，我們看到的利潤率、信貸和競爭方面的所有趨勢都讓我們感到樂觀，這與向汽車行業傾斜的故事一致。

Next question please.

請回答下一個問題。

Rick Shane, JP Morgan.

摩根大通的里克·沙恩 (Rick Shane)。

Rich, you did a great job laying out the factors that have caused the historical relationship between labor and credit to weaken. And one of the factors you mentioned was the impact of rates. And it makes sense, credit cards are one of the two largest classes of floating rate consumer debt. As we think about reversion to historical norms, should we expect charge-off rates to be structurally higher as long as interest rates are structurally higher?

里奇，你很好地闡述了導致勞動力和信貸之間的歷史關係變得薄弱的因素。您提到的因素之一就是利率的影響。這是有道理的，信用卡是兩大浮動利率消費債務類別之一。當我們考慮回歸歷史常態時，只要利率結構性走高，我們是否應該預期沖銷率也會結構性走高？

Or is it possible to get back to historic loss rates in a high interest rate environment?

或者是否有可能在高利率環境下回到歷史損失率？

It's a great question. It's interesting how all of us -- some of us were around doing similar things back when -- well, Capital One, we hadn't even come up with the idea for Capital One back when inflation was really ranging the last time around. So I think we would be speculating there. But I think, Rick, if we pull up and think about interest rates and their impact.

這是一個很好的問題。有趣的是，我們所有人——我們中的一些人曾經做過類似的事情——嗯，Capital One，在上次通貨膨脹真正出現的時候，我們甚至還沒有想出 Capital One 的想法。因此我認為我們會進行推測。但我認為，里克，如果我們停下來思考利率及其影響。

We think about how higher rates as a thing affect consumer credit. So debt servicing burdens for consumers. Of course, can get affected. The higher rates as they work their way through consumer products gradually, but not immediately sort of make their way into higher debt burdens. So you have mortgages that tend to have fixed rates, auto loans have fixed rates.

我們思考更高的利率如何影響消費者信貸。因此，債務償還負擔加重了消費者。當然會受到影響。較高的利率會逐漸影響消費品，但不會立即帶來更高的債務負擔。因此，抵押貸款往往有固定利率，汽車貸款也有固定利率。

So you have time delays before interest rates make their way to more pressure on consumers, but still that effect obviously can continue.

因此，在利率對消費者造成更多壓力之前會有一段時間延遲，但這種影響顯然仍會持續下去。

Most credit cards have variable APRs. So rising interest rates have tended to lead to somewhat higher minimum payments for consumers overall. But if we pull up, I think that if wages -- if things stabilize and wages tend to keep up with inflation, I would think on the credit card side, there's -- it is plausible that charge-off rates could be very consistent with what they've been in a lower ambient rate environment.

大多數信用卡都有可變的 APR。因此，整體而言，利率上升往往會導致消費者的最低還款金額增加。但如果我們停下來，我認為如果工資——如果情況穩定下來，工資趨於跟上通貨膨脹的步伐，我認為在信用卡方面，沖銷率可能會與通貨膨脹非常一致。利率環境中。

I think it gets very challenging when they're suddenly in motion up. But if they stabilize, I'm just speculating here at a moderate level that's higher than they were for the last couple of decades. I think as wages sort of stabilize to make real incomes move the way they should, I would think that credit numbers could be very consistent with historical patterns. I think the biggest driver of why they're not right now, if I were to speculate, probably number one on my list is really the just unprecedented number of years, of which charge-offs with all the government stimulus and the forbearance that so many consumers got a lifeline that those -- for whom that lifeline was a little more temporary in its benefit. Some of those issues are still resolving themselves in terms of current charge-offs.

我認為當它們突然開始運動時就會變得非常具有挑戰性。但如果它們穩定下來，我只是推測它們會處於一個比過去幾十年更高的中等水平。我認為，隨著薪資逐漸穩定，實際收入以應有的方式變動，信貸數字可能與歷史模式非常一致。我認為，如果我要推測的話，導致他們現在沒有盈利的最大原因可能是，我列出的首要原因是前所未有的多年時間，其中政府刺激措施和寬容導致的沖銷，因此對許多消費者來說，這條生命線比對那些人來說只是暫時的。從目前的沖銷情況來看，其中一些問題仍在解決中。

It's always an interesting thing to just take a look at the area under the curve in credit losses. For -- if we look back over the last number of years and look at where credit losses would typically have been versus where they were and you look at the area end of the curve and ask yourself, well, what if all of that were delayed charge-offs, you still have a majority of that area under the curve that would still have to play out in terms of delayed charge-offs.

觀察信用損失曲線下的面積總是一件有趣的事。如果我們回顧過去幾年，看看信貸損失的正常情況與實際情況，再看看曲線的末端，問問自己，如果所有這些都被推遲了，會怎麼樣？需要以延遲沖銷的形式發揮作用。

Now we don't believe that anything close to all of the area under the curve would need to come on the other side. But I think a one sentence soundbite to me of why in such a benign environment, credit losses in businesses like credit cards are running higher than pre-pandemic, it is the delayed charge-off effect. And time should be our friend there, that should resolve itself over time and there are a lot of positive factors behind that, that are putting sort of good gravitational pull in the right direction in this industry.

現在我們不相信曲線下方的所有區域都需要出現在另一側。但我認為，用一句話來概括，為什麼在如此良好的環境下，信用卡等業務的信貸損失卻比疫情前更高，這是延遲沖銷效應。時間應該是我們的朋友，這個問題會隨著時間的推移而解決，而這背後有很多積極因素，這些因素為這個行業提供了正確的方向。

John Pancari, Evercore ISI.

約翰潘卡里 (John Pancari)，Evercore ISI。

Just on the efficiency side, just a follow-up to Ryan's line of questioning. I know you've guided to an operating efficiency ratio in the low 42% range for 2024. Does this 42% range remain the case as you look at 2025? Or do you see a change to the upside or the downside off of this level?

僅就效率方面而言，這只是對 Ryan 提問的一個後續問題。我知道您已將 2024 年的營運效率比率預期控制在 42% 以下。展望 2025 年，這一比例還會維持在 42% 左右嗎？或者您是否看到該水平向上或向下發生了變化？

So, we -- I think the operating efficiency ratio has really been -- hopefully, our investors share our excitement that this 700 basis point improvement that has happened since we began our tech transformation in 2013, has certainly been a main driver, there are multiple things behind that, but the driver is the technology transformation and even as we invest a lot, there are also ways to create savings, savings through reduced vendor costs, the really high cost of a lot of legacy technology, the benefits on the cloud and really the ability to then on the other side of the technology transformation sort of rebuild the company and how it operates on a foundation of modern technology.

所以，我認為營運效率比率確實一直很高，希望我們的投資者能和我們一樣興奮，因為自 2013 年我們開始技術轉型以來，營運效率比率已經提高了 700 個基點，這無疑是主要推動力。這背後有很多因素，但驅動因素是技術轉型，即使我們投入大量資金，也有辦法節省開支，透過降低供應商成本、許多傳統技術的高成本、雲端運算的優勢來節省開支而技術轉型的另一方面，則是真正意義上重建公司以及公司在現代技術基礎上的運作方式的能力。

And so that's a journey that continues and so we see benefits there. I do want to say, though, also you have -- we've had a lot of beneficial increase in the ratio in the last couple of years. And I wouldn't want people to just draw -- take the curve and say, "Wow, that thing almost looks like it's accelerating down "

這是一個持續的旅程，我們也看到了其中的好處。不過，我確實想說，在過去幾年裡，我們的這一比例已經有了很大的有益成長。我不希望人們只是畫一條曲線，然後說：「哇，那東西看起來好像在加速下降“

And we don't give guidance in the short term. There are a lot of things that very important investments we're making in the business. But what I'd like to do is really just point out that when we stand back over a longer time frame and look at the journey of Capital One. This has been a journey for which the efficiency was never the objective function. It was one of the many benefits of a tech transformation but it's very gratifying to see that continue.

我們不會提供短期指導。我們在業務上進行了很多非常重要的投資。但我真正想指出的是，當我們回顧更長遠的時間範圍並回顧 Capital One 的發展歷程時。這是一段從未以效率為目標的旅程。這是技術轉型的眾多好處之一，但看到它繼續下去，我們感到非常欣慰。

But I think the extrapolation from any 1 year to the next is not something that we would recommend. And so -- but it's a great long-term story.

但我認為，我們不建議用任何一年的推論來推論下一年。所以——但這是一個偉大的長期故事。

Got it. Okay. And then one quick second one. I assume this will be a pretty quick answer, but it would be helpful if there's any -- have you made any changes to your expected deal metrics tied to the Discover deal, either the 15% or greater EPS accretion in '27 or the expense efficiencies or the timing of adding the $175 billion in purchase volume to the network?

知道了。好的。然後再快速地做第二次。我想這會是一個非常簡短的回答，但如果有任何疑問，那將會很有幫助——你是否對與Discover 交易相關的預期交易指標做了任何更改，無論是27 年每股收益增長15 % 或更高，還是費用效率還是將 1750 億美元的購買量添加到網路的時機？

John, yes, what I'll say is it's two independent public companies, we still are operating separately at this point, and there are a number of variables that have moved and will continue to move between now and legal day 1. And so I'm not going to specifically comment on how any one of those variables or metrics are changing since the deal model.

約翰，是的，我想說的是，這是兩家獨立的上市公司，我們目前仍然是分開運營的，從現在到合法成立的第一天，有許多變數已經發生變化，並且還將繼續變化。因此，我不會具體評論自交易模式以來任何一個變數或指標是如何變化的。

What I will say is we considered a wide range of outcomes across each of the line items, and we continue to be comfortable with the estimates that we included in the deal model, we feel very good, both strategically and financially about the deal today as we did nearly a year ago when we announced it.

我要說的是，我們考慮了每一項的廣泛結果，我們仍然對交易模型中包含的估計感到滿意，我們對今天的交易在戰略和財務上都感到非常滿意。了這個消息。

And so as we get to legal day 1 and put the marks on the balance sheet, we'll provide updates on the relevant metrics at that point.

因此，當我們進入合法第一天並在資產負債表上做出標記時，我們將在那時提供相關指標的更新。

Mihir Bhatia, Bank of America.

美國銀行的米希爾·巴蒂亞 (Mihir Bhatia)。

I wanted to start first by just talking about NIM a little bit. You called out the Walmart impact this quarter. Any other call-outs for the quarter? It just feels banks have been quite disciplined about lowering saving accounts, interest rates as the Fed has reduced rates. Do you think that continues?

首先我想簡單談談 NIM。您提到了沃爾瑪本季的影響。本季還有其他安排嗎？只是感覺銀行在降低儲蓄帳戶和利率方面相當自律，因為聯準會已經降低了利率。您認為這種情況還會持續嗎？

Or are you starting to see some demand for deposits or deposit competition ramping as we start contemplating loan growth here in 2025? I guess just related to that, if you could just talk about some of the puts and takes on NIM in 2025, that would be great.

或者，當我們開始考慮 2025 年的貸款成長時，您是否開始看到存款需求或存款競爭日益激烈？我想與此相關的是，如果您能談談 2025 年 NIM 的一些利弊，那就太好了。

Sure, Mihir. Well, let me start with just reminding everyone that the one thing for sure, we know is that in the first quarter, we have two fewer days. And so that will drive a 15 basis point roughly decrease in NIM. But if I kind of pull up and think beyond day count and look at a longer term -- the longer term, a lot of the same forces that I've been describing for the last number of quarters as potential headwinds and tailwinds still exist today. .

當然，米希爾。好吧，首先我要提醒大家，有一件事是肯定的，我們知道，在第一季度，我們的假期少了兩天。這會導致 NIM 下降約 15 個基點。但如果我停下來思考，不局限於日復一日的計算，而是放眼更長遠的未來，過去幾個季度中我所描述的許多潛在逆風和順風如今仍然存在。。

So as you think about the headwinds, first of all, we're very modestly asset sensitive. And so you see a small decrease in NIM if rates continue to decrease, and you saw a little bit of that effect here in this quarter.

因此，當你考慮不利因素時，首先，我們對資產的敏感度非常低。因此，如果利率繼續下降，你會看到 NIM 略微下降，而你在本季就看到了一點這種影響。

The other one, you bring up deposit beta, of course, in our rate risk modelling, we make assumptions around deposit betas. So to the extent that betas are lower or slower on the way down, we would be a little bit more asset sensitive in that scenario. So those could be headwinds.

另一個，您提到了存款貝塔係數，當然，在我們的利率風險模型中，我們圍繞存款貝塔係數做出了假設。因此，如果貝塔係數在下降過程中較低或較慢，那麼在這種情況下我們對資產的敏感度就會更高一些。所以這些都可能是阻力。

But on the tailwind side, the steepening yield curve relative to forwards would be a good guy if that persists. But then probably the single biggest factor, and we've seen this play out over the last number of quarters, is the card growth and card becoming a bigger percentage of our balance sheet, all else equal, is a pretty meaningful tailwind to NIM. So those are really the forces at play that I would highlight for you.

但從順風方面來看，如果這種情況持續下去，殖利率曲線相對於遠期殖利率的趨陡將是件好事。但可能最大的單一因素，而且我們已經在過去幾個季度中看到了這一趨勢，就是信用卡增長以及信用卡在我們資產負債表中佔據的比重越來越大，在其他條件相同的情況下，這對NIM 來說是相當有意義的順風。所以這些才是我想向你們強調的真正起作用的力量。

Got it. And then maybe just turning quickly to capital return. You've been doing $150 million in buyback the last few quarters. Your CET1 is up to 13.5%. You understand with the deal, you have to get approval, right, for any capital actions.

知道了。然後也許只是迅速轉向資本回報。過去幾個季度，你們已進行了 1.5 億美元的回購。您的 CET1 高達 13.5%。你明白，對於這筆交易，任何資本行動都必須得到批准。

But the question is -- two-part question there, is that approval of keeping you a little conservative right now?

但問題是──這個問題分成兩個部分，現在是否同意你保持一點保守的立場？

And two, once the deal is approved, should we assume you'll be pretty aggressive in getting that down? Or would it probably fair to assume it stays elevated for a little bit even post deal as you get through the integration?

第二，一旦交易獲得批准，我們是否應該認為你會非常積極地完成這一目標？或者，是否可以公平地假設，在交易完成整合之後，其價格仍會保持在高位？

Yes. I'll wrap my answer to both of those questions into one for you. Mihir. First of all, just go without saying, but I will say it too, which is we clearly recognize that over the longer term, capital return is key component of shareholder value creation. And you've seen in prior periods, we've executed substantial share repurchases.

是的。我會將這兩個問題的答案合併為一個來回答您。米希爾。首先，不用多說，但我也要說，我們清楚地認識到，從長遠來看，資本回報是股東價值創造的關鍵組成部分。而您在前期已經看到，我們進行了大量的股票回購。

But in the near term, our pending deal is certainly influencing our approach to capital in a few ways. As you said, we're still under regulatory preapproval rules for each of our capital actions.

但在短期內，我們即將達成的交易肯定會在某些方面影響我們的資本方式。正如您所說，我們的每項資本行動仍需遵守監管部門的預先批准規則。

And second, we will need to run our own bottoms-up analysis as a combined company to just assess our view of the combined capital need, and we continue to be two separate companies and therefore, don't have the ability to do that analysis until after close.

其次，作為一家合併後的公司，我們需要進行自下而上的分析，以評估我們對合併資本需求的看法，但我們仍然是兩家獨立的公司，因此沒有能力進行這種分析直至收盤後。

And then third, we will need the Fed's approval to go back to operating under the SCB framework. So if I pull up from there and put all of those together, I think it's likely we're going to stay at a lower repurchase pace until we resolve these factors, but after that, we'll have more flexibility.

第三，我們需要聯準會的批准才能重新在 SCB 框架下運作。因此，如果我從那裡開始並將所有這些放在一起，我認為我們可能會保持較低的回購速度，直到我們解決這些因素，但在那之後，我們將有更大的靈活性。

Next question please.

請回答下一個問題。

Bill Carcache, Wolfe Research Securities.

沃爾夫研究證券公司的比爾卡卡什 (Bill Carcache)。

Rich and Andrew. It was good to hear all the references to the capital and arena around the inauguration. I wanted to ask about your ability to better compete against the big banks in debit, assuming the Discover transaction closes as you expect? . We know debit rewards for Visa, Mastercard issuers essentially went away after the force reduction in interchange under Dodd-Frank.

里奇和安德魯。很高興聽到就職典禮期間提到首都和競技場。我想問一下，假設 Discover 交易如您預期的那樣結束，您在藉記卡領域是否有能力更好地與大銀行競爭？。我們知道，在《多德—弗蘭克法案》實施後，Visa 和萬事達卡發行商的借記卡獎勵基本上消失了。

But would reintroducing debit rewards be something that you'd consider given the greater flexibility that owning the Discover Network will afford you?

但是，考慮到擁有 Discover Network 可以為您帶來更大的靈活性，您是否會考慮重新引入借記獎勵？

Bill. So obviously, a really key part of the deal is our excitement about getting the network and being able to add such a key dimension in vertically integrating our business. And we talk so much about credit cards all the time, the debit business is a really important one. And on little cat feet, Capital One has really been investing in our national banking business.

賬單。因此顯然，這筆交易的一個真正關鍵部分是我們對獲得該網絡以及能夠在垂直整合我們的業務中增加這樣一個關鍵維度感到興奮。我們一直在談論信用卡，借記卡業務確實非常重要。而 Capital One 也一直在悄悄地投資我們的國家銀行業務。

So I -- and by the way, having our own network will be valuable there, and we'll be able to enjoy the vertically integrated economics of owning a network and the scale that comes, of course, from pulling Discover and a bunch of Capital One's volume together.

順便說一句，擁有自己的網路將很有價值，我們將能夠享受擁有網路的垂直整合經濟，當然，透過拉動 Discover 和一系列Capital One 的交易量總計。

Now I just want to pull back and just talk a little bit about Capital One's consumer banking strategy and therefore -- and debit is, of course, right. in the transaction business right at the heart of that.

現在，我只想回顧一下並稍微談論一下 Capital One 的消費者銀行業務策略，因此 - 當然，借記是正確的。交易業務就是其中的核心。

If you pull way up and think about consumer banking, way back to when banks began, you had banks with branches on every corner. And then in the last 15 or 20 years, there have been the evolution of direct banks, and they have been savings only offering higher rates, and they have no physical distribution whatsoever.

如果您停下來思考消費者銀行業務，回想銀行剛誕生的時候，您會發現銀行的分行遍布各個角落。而在過去15到20年裡，直接銀行不斷發展，它們只是提供更高利率的儲蓄銀行，並且沒有任何實體分銷。

And we, of course, also through our acquisitions have acquired several banks with branches on every corner, and we also acquired the nation's largest direct bank, and I announced at the time of that acquisition, this is a great financial trade, but it is also a strategic game changer for Capital One, that was back like 12 years ago. So since then, we have been very steadily, systematically, relentlessly and patiently, if I could put so many adjectives -- adverbs on that, pursuing a business model that actually doesn't really exist right now because we have those two end points.

當然，我們也透過收購獲得了幾家在各個角落都有分行的銀行，我們也收購了全國最大的直銷銀行，我在收購時宣布，這是一筆偉大的金融交易，但它對Capital One 來說也是一個策略性的改變，這發生在12 年前。因此從那時起，我們一直非常穩定、有系統、堅持不懈和耐心地（如果我可以用很多形容詞——副詞來形容的話）追求一種實際上現在並不存在的商業模式，因為我們有這兩個終點。

But what we're really trying to do is built in a sense, the bank of the future. And we believe that bank of the future is not just a direct bank. It's also not a bank with a branch on every corner. It is a bank with thin physical distribution.

但我們真正想做的是從某種意義上建立未來的銀行。我們相信未來的銀行不僅僅是一家直銷銀行。這也不是一家在每個角落都有分行的銀行。這是一家實體分佈較薄的銀行。

For us, we've got branches, but then also in major metropolitan areas, we have put in cafes that are really basically less about coffee, but really more about being sort of a hybrid of a branch and a showroom for Capital One in a place people can go and understand Capital One is there to help them and get a sense for really what this company is about and how it may be able to help them live their life more effectively.

對我們來說，我們有分店，但在主要大都市地區，我們也開設了咖啡館，這些咖啡館實際上並不是關於咖啡的，而更像是 Capital One 的分店和展示廳的混合體。可以去那裡了解Capital One 如何為他們提供幫助，真正了解這家公司的宗旨以及它如何幫助他們更有效地生活。

So as we've been -- so this strategy has been about if we work backwards from what we believe is the bank of the future, from a distribution point of view, that thin physical distribution and highlighted by these cafe showrooms. It also a very central part of that is digital capabilities that enable something that's a very, very difficult thing to do, which is to take just about everything that can be done in a branch and make it available digitally.

所以，正如我們一直以來所做的那樣 — — 因此，如果我們從我們認為的未來銀行的角度來逆向思考，從分銷的角度來思考，那麼這些咖啡館展示廳就強調了薄弱的實體分銷。其中非常核心的部分就是數位化能力，它可以實現一件非常非常困難的事情，即將分支機構可以完成的所有工作以數位化方式提供。

Now, there's some things like safe deposit boxes, we haven't figured out how to create a digital safe deposit box for your valuable and there are a few things that just you can't get there on a digital basis. But what -- but as we've looked at this, we said just pretty much virtually all the activities that people go to branches for we want to be able to deliver to them through our thin physical distribution plus massive full-service digital capability. And that's what we've been building over these years.

現在，有一些東西，例如保險箱，我們還沒有想出如何為您的貴重物品創建一個數位保險箱，而且有一些東西您無法以數位方式獲得。但是，正如我們所看到的，我們說，人們去分支機構的幾乎所有活動，我們都希望能夠透過我們精簡的物理分佈加上大規模的全方位服務數位能力提供給他們。這就是我們這些年來一直致力於建造的。

Additionally, it requires -- in order to generate business, we need great products, and we've been the only major bank out there with no fees, no minimums and even a recent move of no overdraft fees. And those better deals come from having built the, in a sense, superior economics that come from this sort of physical distribution light model.

此外，為了開展業務，我們需要優質的產品，而且我們是唯一一家不收取任何費用、沒有最低限額、甚至最近還取消了透支費用的大型銀行。從某種意義上說，這些更好的交易源於這種物理分佈輕型模型所建立的更優越的經濟效益。

Now then you asked the question, so what will be our debit card strategy? We haven't completed the deal. We haven't fully gone in on the other side of exactly seeing how things are working on the Discovery side. But we are very pleased with the results that we're having with our current strategy, including our current debit card strategy. And we are investing heavily to continue to grow that business.

那麼您問的問題是，我們的金融卡策略是什麼？我們尚未完成交易。我們還沒有完全深入了解發現號的工作情況。但我們對我們目前策略（包括目前的金融卡策略）所取得的成果非常滿意。我們正在投入大量資金來繼續發展這項業務。

You look at the significant increase in marketing over the years. One of the drivers of this is that Capital One is building a national bank organically without a lot of physical distribution and to get there, it takes a lot of marketing. So I think the best way to think about it is, Discover gives a shot in the arm and a boost to a strategy we've been pursuing for more than a decade. And the best way to think about it, I think, is picture just more of the same from Capital One with a little bit of an accelerator.

您會發現，這些年來，行銷取得了顯著的成長。其中一個驅動因素是，Capital One 正在有機地建立一家全國性銀行，而沒有大量的實體分銷，因此需要進行大量的營銷。所以我認為最好的想法是，Discover 為我們十多年來一直推行的策略提供了助力。我認為，最好的思考方式就是，想像一下 Capital One 的類似業務，但再加上一點加速器。

Moshe Orenbuch, TD Cowen.

Moshe Orenbuch，TD Cowen。

Rich, you talked about better growth in auto and card talked about the high-end card. Talk about the nonprime businesses in both card and auto, given the improved credit, how you're thinking about growth in those businesses in the coming quarters?

Rich，您談到了汽車和信用卡市場的更好成長，並談到了高端信用卡。談談信用卡和汽車領域的非優質業務，鑑於信貸改善，您如何看待未來幾季這些業務的成長？

Moshe, the word that I would use at the lower and the sort of lower end of the business, obviously, there are parts of the market below where we play. But if we sort of loosely call it at the lower end of the non-prime or subprime part of the marketplace, the word that I would use to describe it is stability and stability of -- let's look at the key aspects of that.

Moshe，我會用這個詞來描述業務的較低端和較低端，顯然，在我們業務的下面還有一部分市場。但如果我們大致將其稱為市場非優質或次優質部分的低端，我會用穩定性來描述它——讓我們來看看它的關鍵方面。

On the consumer credit side, actually the first part of our business to normalize really to settle out with respect to credit was the lower end of the market. That's been very stable. The -- our originations in that segment and really pretty much across our business, the originations are coming in on top of each other for years. So that has a stability there as well.

在消費信貸方面，實際上我們業務第一個正常化並在信貸方面真正解決的部分是低端市場。這非常穩定。我們在該領域的起源以及實際上在我們整個業務中起源的起源多年來一直不斷湧現。因此那裡也具有穩定性。

Competitively, it's a very competitive -- it's a very competitive part of the business that has many -- in addition to regular card players, many nontraditional players as well. So the competitive intensity is high, but we -- we watch it very carefully. And so with the stability of performance and the strength of the consumer, we, in both the Card and the Auto side of the business, continue to lean in a very similar way that we have. Well, for Card, it's just been very consistent for years. With Auto, we kind of pulled back quite a bit in that part of the business, and we're leaning in as we often have done historically.

從競爭角度來看，這是一個競爭非常激烈的業務領域，除了常規玩家之外，還有許多非傳統玩家。因此競爭強度很高，但我們會非常密切地關注。因此，憑藉性能的穩定性和消費者的實力，我們在信用卡和汽車業務方面，將繼續以與以往非常相似的方式發展。嗯，對卡德來說，多年來一直非常穩定。對於汽車業務，我們在某種程度上已經大大縮減了這部分業務，並且像我們歷史上經常做的那樣，繼續向前邁進。

So we're leaning into both of them, and we're really pleased with the stability and strength of the metrics that underlie those business.

因此，我們傾向於兩者，並且我們對這些業務所依據的指標的穩定性和強度感到非常滿意。

Got it. And maybe just as a follow-up. When you think about reserve levels given that you are seeing or likely to see some improvement in credit losses kind of on a core basis or like-for-like? And it sounds like the growth is probably -- growth that you have in the balance sheet is probably going to come in your lower loss categories, not the higher ones. Thoughts about the reserve level as we move forward.

知道了。或許只是作為後續行動。當您考慮儲備水準時，您是否看到或可能看到信貸損失在核心基礎上或同類基礎上有所改善？聽起來，資產負債表中的成長可能來自於損失較低的類別，而不是損失較高的類別。關於我們前進過程中儲備水準的思考。

Sure, Moshe. So what's going to happen in future quarters starts with what happened this quarter. So I just want to reiterate a couple of the drivers of this quarter as a jumping off point, as I said in the prepared remarks, coverage was down 33 basis points by two things. The bigger effect being that we typically have seasonally higher balances in the fourth quarter that require very low levels of coverage and that denominator effect from those balances put downward pressure on coverage.

當然，摩西。因此，未來幾季將發生的事情將始於本季發生的事情。因此，我只想重申本季的幾個驅動因素作為起點，正如我在準備好的發言中所說，覆蓋率因兩項因素下降了 33 個基點。更大的影響是，我們通常在第四季度有季節性較高的餘額，這需要非常低的覆蓋水平，而這些餘額的分母效應對覆蓋率造成了下行壓力。

The other effect was that the allowance we needed for, what I'll call, nonseasonal growth was offset by favorable observed credit performance. And so we added 0 dollars of allowance balance to the numerator, but the nonseasonal growth impacted the denominator.

另一個影響是，我們所需要的非季節性成長的津貼被觀察到的有利的信貸表現所抵銷。因此我們在分子中添加了 0 美元的津貼餘額，但非季節性增長影響了分母。

And so in the first quarter, I just wanted to provide that backdrop to say the seasonal balances will run off. And so there will be a corresponding upward pressure on coverage, all else equal from that effect. But beyond that, it's really going to come down to growth and our loss forecast and loss forecast specifically for the coverage.

因此，在第一季度，我只是想提供這樣的背景來說明季節性餘額將會減少。因此，在其他條件相同的情況下，覆蓋率也會隨之面臨上行壓力。但除此之外，它實際上還是取決於成長和我們的損失預測以及專門針對覆蓋範圍的損失預測。

And to the extent the loss forecast improves, changes in coverage could be modest in the near term as we just reflect the uncertainty of our projections in the allowance. But eventually, the improved loss forecast is going to flow through the allowance and continue to bring the coverage ratio down as uncertainties become more certain.

而且，在損失預測改善的範圍內，短期內覆蓋範圍的變化可能會很小，因為我們只是在準備金中反映了預測的不確定性。但最終，隨著不確定性變得更加確定，損失預測的改善將流入準備金並繼續降低覆蓋率。

And so while the direction of travel would be down the pace and timing is going to depend on a variety of factors, one of which will include the mix of businesses, as you say. But when it's denominated to the whole portfolio, the relative growth of different forecasted loss portions of the book aren't going to have material impact to coverage just given that the new originations as a percentage of the overall book in any given quarter is relatively small.

因此，雖然旅行的方向會放慢，但速度和時間將取決於多種因素，其中之一就包括業務組合，正如您所說。但當它以整個投資組合計價時，不同預測損失部分的相對增長不會對覆蓋率產生重大影響，因為任何特定季度的新發起佔總帳簿的百分比相對較小。

And then the only thing I also want to remind you of is, I know our investors look at history as a potential guide for levels of coverage, and I just want to remind you that we called out the roughly 50 basis points of impact to coverage from the termination of the loss sharing agreement with Walmart. So that created a step function change in coverage relative to our prior history as well.

然後，我唯一想提醒你的是，我知道我們的投資者將歷史視為覆蓋水平的潛在指導，我只想提醒你，我們指出了覆蓋率大約 50 個基點的影響自與沃爾瑪的損失分擔協議終止以來。因此，相對於我們先前的歷史，這也導致了覆蓋範圍的階躍變化。

Don Fandetti, Wells Fargo.

富國銀行的唐‧范德蒂 (Don Fandetti)。

Yes, Rich, your credit card purchase volume growth like account basis has picked up. I'm just trying to get a sense if this is a Q4 blip or are you thinking that the consumer is actually more confident here after the election. Are you seeing that same improvement in Consumer and Small business as well?

是的，Rich，你的信用卡購買量（如帳戶基礎）成長已經加快。我只是想知道這是否是第四季度的短暫現象，或者您是否認為消費者在選舉後實際上更有信心。您是否也看到消費者和小型企業方面有同樣的改善？

Well, we have -- if we think about our purchase volume, our growth in overall purchase volume continues to be driven by growth in our branded card customer base and the branded card includes both our consumer and our small business. The growth that you see and that we've seen for several years now is certainly a thing powering it has been a strength in originations and some strength in originations at the higher end of the market.

嗯，如果我們考慮我們的購買量，我們整體購買量的成長繼續受到品牌卡客戶群成長的推動，品牌卡包括我們的消費者和小型企業。您所看到的以及我們幾年來所看到的成長無疑是推動其發展的因素之一，它來自於發起方面的實力以及高端市場發起方面的實力。

But the other way to think about your question is at a customer level, what -- on a per customer basis, what's been happening to spend growth? And even as our spend metrics we're growing overall, the spend growth per customer in our Consumer business have been largely -- they had been largely flat through 2023 and really the first half of 2024 and then they started to pick up midway through last year and they grew further in Q4.

但是思考你的問題的另一種方式是從客戶層面，在每個客戶的基礎上，支出成長如何？儘管我們的支出指標總體上在增長，但我們消費者業務的每位客戶支出增長卻基本持平，直到 2023 年和 2024 年上半年，這一數字才開始回升。進一步增長。

And I don't have in front of me the Small Business Card numbers. They're embedded in the numbers that I gave you. So, the fact that we have seen spend per customer finally pick up here is striking, whether it will continue and exactly what's driving it is hard to say. But I did want to point out that positive trajectory as the year finished off.

我面前並沒有小型企業名片號碼。它們嵌入在我給你的數字中。所以，我們看到每位顧客的支出終於回升，這一事實令人震驚，但這種趨勢是否會持續下去，以及究竟是什麼推動了這一趨勢，還很難說。但我確實想指出今年即將結束時的積極軌跡。

Got it. And Andrew, you touched on this, but your '24 vintage, can you talk a little bit about how you're feeling -- how you're seeing that shape up in terms of credit performance? I've seen some industry data that shows delinquencies are still pretty high for '24.

知道了。安德魯，您提到了這一點，但是對於 24 年的年份，您能否談談您的感受——您如何看待信用表現方面的情況？我看到一些行業數據顯示，2024年的拖欠率仍然很高。

Don, why don't I take that? So recent originations in our Card business. We continue to see stability in the performance of our originations. It's really striking here. We've been calling this out consistently over the past few years.

唐，我為什麼不接受這個？我們的信用卡業務最近有了新的發展。我們的發起表現持續保持穩定。這裡確實引人注目。過去幾年來我們一直在強調這一點。

Vintage over vintage, we're seeing mostly stable risk levels over time. And also striking is our overall front book of new origination vintages continues to perform in line with three pandemic vintages.

隨著時間的流逝，我們發現風險水準基本上保持穩定。同樣引人注目的是，我們新產年份葡萄酒的整體銷量繼續與三個大流行年份的銷量保持一致。

Now when you compare with pre-pandemic vintages, you can't look at 2019 because 2019 very quickly got sort of corrupted by the pandemic that we're looking at 2017 and 2018 when we make these comparisons. But -- so from a Capital One point of view, I think this is -- this stability in origination performance and quarter-over-quarter and the consistency with pre-pandemic is the result of our intervention to deal with inflated credit scores and the high level of industry supplies that we're flooding, particularly the subprime marketplace back there.

現在，當與大流行之前的年份進行比較時，您不能只看 2019 年，因為 2019 年很快就受到了大流行的影響，而我們在進行比較時看到的是 2017 年和 2018 年。但是，從 Capital One 的角度來看，我認為，這種季度間發起表現的穩定性以及與疫情前的一致性，是我們幹預虛高的信用評分的結果，我們正在向行業注入大量供給，特別是那裡的次級房貸市場。

So we trimmed around the edges and continue to very closely watch the origination vintages. And that has led to a sustained stability on the part of Capital One and some of our most recent vintages. Now again, we're still looking -- you've got to look like 6 months in the rearview mirror to see much, but we continue to see some very positive results there.

因此，我們修剪了邊緣，並繼續密切關注原產年份。這使得 Capital One 以及我們最近的一些年份的業務保持了持續的穩定。現在，我們仍在觀察——你必須回顧六個月後才能看到很多東西，但我們繼續看到一些非常積極的結果。

We also have looked at industry data that shows some gapping out in vintages over the last couple of years. So I think the industry effect is not probably consistent with what we have described. And if I were to explain why, because I think they're very capable companies doing this, I think the -- I'm not sure that most of the industry adjusted for inflated credit scores. And we intervened on our models with a belief that the university was suddenly giving out As that should be Bs basically and so we intervened and then kept validating along the way. But for a while, we didn't have validation. We just intervened because we believe it was the right thing to do.

我們也研究了行業數據，這些數據顯示過去幾年的葡萄酒年份出現了一些差距。所以我認為產業效應可能和我們描述的不一致。如果我要解釋原因的話，因為我認為他們是能夠做到這一點的非常有能力的公司，我認為——我不確定大多數行業是否都針對虛高的信用評分進行了調整。我們對我們的模型進行了乾預，認為大學突然給出了 A 而實際上應該是 B 的成績，所以我們進行了乾預，然後在此過程中不斷進行驗證。但有一段時間，我們沒有得到驗證。我們只是幹預，因為我們相信這是正確的做法。

So I think what we have -- what has been seen, if you look at just overall industry originations is, as you say, some gapping out and I think that would be the biggest driver.

因此我認為，如果你只看整個產業起源，我們所看到的就是，正如你所說的，存在一些差距，我認為這將是最大的驅動因素。

Sanjay Sakhrani, KBW.

桑傑薩克拉尼（Sanjay Sakhrani），KBW。

I guess, Rich, just one more on the deal. Given the time line that you've outlined early this year, is it fair to assume like everything is going pretty smoothly in terms of the regulatory approval process and there hasn't been any surprises. I'm also wondering sort of where you guys are in terms of the integration efforts and how much work has been done there.

我想，Rich，就這筆交易再說一次吧。考慮到您今年稍早概述的時間表，是否可以公平地假設監管審批流程方面一切進展順利，並且沒有任何意外。我還想知道你們在整合工作方面進展如何以及完成了多少工作。

Okay. Yes. So no, the approval process continues to move forward. We made substantial process in the recent months. We remain actively engaged with the Fed and the OCC about our merger applications, and it is the Fed and the OCC, you ultimately decide on our merger application.

好的。是的。所以，審批流程仍在繼續。近幾個月來我們取得了實質進展。我們一直積極與聯準會和美國貨幣監理署就合併申請進行溝通，而聯準會和美國貨幣監理署最終將決定我們的合併申請。

Late last year, we received approval from the Delaware State Bank commissioner, which we needed because Discover is a state-chartered bank.

去年年底，我們獲得了特拉華州銀行專員的批准，這是我們所需要的，因為 Discover 是州特許銀行。

We, of course, had the big public hearing in July, and that went very well. We feel -- earlier this month, of course, we finalized the joint proxy statement with the SEC setting up on February 18 shareholder vote. So that was a good progress finally there.

當然，我們在七月舉行了大型公開聽證會，而且進展非常順利。我們認為——當然，本月早些時候，我們與美國證券交易委員會 (SEC) 簽署了聯合代理聲明，並於 2 月 18 日舉行股東投票。所以這最終是一個很好的進展。

We are also engaged with the Justice Department as they play a key role in advising the Fed and the OCC on the competitive aspects of the deal. And we continue to believe that this transaction is both pro-competitive and pro-consumer, bringing our best-in-class products and services to a broader set of consumers and small businesses and really enhancing opportunities and benefits for merchants as well.

我們也與司法部進行了合作，因為他們在為聯準會和美國貨幣監理署提供有關交易競爭方面的建議方面發揮著關鍵作用。我們始終相信，此交易既有利於競爭，也有利於消費者，將我們一流的產品和服務帶給更廣泛的消費者和小型企業，同時也真正為商家帶來了機會和利益。

So pulling way up, it's certainly -- the deal process is a long labor, but we remain well positioned to get approval of the deal early this year. And I'm really proud of the work everyone is doing here, and we look forward to getting this over the goal line.

因此，雖然交易過程需要耗費大量時間，但我們仍有望在今年年初獲得交易批准。我為大家在這裡所做的工作感到非常自豪，我們期待著實現這一目標。

Okay. Just to follow up on a question Ryan asked some time ago on sort of when you put the companies together and the efficiencies and sort of the investments that need to be made. I guess when you put the two companies together, the efficiency ratio actually goes down. And obviously, there's a lot of synergies, both on revenues and expenses.

好的。我只是想跟進 Ryan 之前提出的一個問題，即當您將各公司整合在一起時，需要提高效率並進行哪些投資。我想，當把這兩家公司放在一起時，效率比率實際上會下降。顯然，無論是收入或支出，都存在著很大的綜效。

Do you think those are sufficient enough to accomplish -- I'm just trying the question again. Do you think those are sufficient enough to make all of the investments that you sort of outlined? Or do you think that there's others that you might have to make as you peel the onion a bid when you have the company?

您認為這些足以完成嗎——我只是再次嘗試這個問題。您認為這些足以進行您所概述的所有投資嗎？或者您認為，當您擁有這家公司時，您在剝洋蔥出價時可能還需要做其他事情？

So I don't think we're in a position to -- it's not just because we want to be coy about it. We're not in a different place than we were at the time we announced the deal. And we should point out that we are working really hard preparing for integration, but we are still separate companies, and Discover is working incredibly hard and working on their compliance, and I know they're doing preparations for integration as well. And we certainly are. We're not getting an inside view of their numbers, their performance, their business model. So we're mostly where we were at the outset.

所以我不認為我們有能力這樣做——這不僅僅是因為我們想對此保持矜持。我們現在的情況和我們宣布這筆交易的時候沒有什麼不同。我們應該指出，我們正在努力為整合做準備，但我們仍然是獨立的公司，Discover 正在非常努力地致力於合規性，我知道他們也在為整合做準備。我們確實是這樣的。我們無法從內部了解他們的數據、績效和商業模式。因此我們基本上還停留在最初階段的狀態。

But if we pull up, to your point, so Discover operates with a significantly lower operating efficiency ratio than Capital One, that's certainly a good thing for the combined company. I think it is also the case that the -- I think Discover has had a heritage of probably less investment in certain areas than Capital One. And in a few cases, they're sort of making up for lost time there.

但如果我們按照你的觀點來看，Discover 的營運效率比率明顯低於 Capital One，那麼對於合併後的公司來說，這無疑是件好事。我認為，Discover 在某些領域的投資歷史可能比 Capital One 少。在一些情況下，他們正在彌補失去的時間。

But I think having not seen on the other side, we assume that there are some areas that we will -- and we've assumed this from the beginning, we're going to need to step up the investments in, obviously, on the risk management side, there's a lot of investment to be done, whether it is how -- what ultimately needs to be done compares with what they're investing and all of that remains to be seen. We obviously had assumptions in our deal model about leaning in on that.

但我認為，在沒有看到另一面的情況下，我們認為有些領域我們需要加大投資——我們從一開始就假設了這一點，顯然，我們需要加大對風險管理方面，有很多投資要做，無論是如何——與他們所投資的相比最終需要做什麼，所有這些都還有待觀察。我們的交易模型中顯然已經假設了這一點。

But what we get -- so there's going to be a lot of effects that are all pretty significant that just go in different directions, a company with an amazing efficiency ratio, a company that's probably underinvested in a number of areas that to Capital One, and we would shore up some of those investments. We also get a lot of synergy that comes from bringing overlapping businesses together. That's a very strong effect. And then these 3 investment areas, the 3 that we're pointing out, we are talking about investing in those at a level that's a lot different than what Discover has done traditionally.

但我們得到的是——因此會有很多影響，這些影響都非常顯著，只是會朝著不同的方向發展，一家擁有驚人效率比率的公司，一家可能在很多領域投資不足的公司，對於Capital One 來說，我們將鞏固一些投資。我們也透過將重疊業務整合在一起而獲得了很多協同效應。效果非常強。然後，我們指出的這三個投資領域，我們正在討論的投資水準與 Discover 傳統上所做的投資水準有很大不同。

Obviously, the risk management one we've all talked about that, and they're leaning in hard now. On international acceptance, they certainly -- again, I'm amazed with their not that great scale, what they've done, but we would expect to invest at a higher level than they have there and in terms of the network brand relative to -- I want to just make a comment about the network brand and some of this other investment.

顯然，我們都討論過風險管理，他們現在正全力投入其中。在國際認可方面，他們當然——再說一次，我對他們不那麼大的規模感到驚訝，他們所做的一切，但我們希望在網絡品牌方面比他們投入更多。品牌和其他一些投資發表一些評論。

It is -- we have sloped. -- we have taken our Card business and sloped the business that we think most naturally and easily can go to the Discover network and it involves folks that aren't big international travellers, for example. So we've sloped the work. There is -- we think it's very straightforward to move this business, front book and back business to Discover.

是的——我們已經傾斜了。 ——我們已經將我們的信用卡業務和我們認為最自然、最容易進入 Discover 網路的業務結合起來，這涉及到那些不經常出國旅行的人們。因此，我們已將工作傾斜。我們認為將這項業務、前台業務和後台業務轉移到 Discover 非常簡單。

And some of these investments that I'm talking about leaning into are particularly important for the longer-term opportunity of being able to move more business than what we put into our deal model. And again, in doing that, we sloped -- we took our whole customer base and imagine sort of sloping it in terms of what part of the business fits most naturally within the context of the capabilities and the branded Discover's network.

我所說的這些投資中的一些對於長期機會尤其重要，因為我們可以比交易模式中投入的更多業務。再次，在這樣做的過程中，我們進行了傾斜——我們將我們的整個客戶群放在一起，並想像在業務的哪一部分最自然地融入能力和品牌 Discover 網路的背景下對其進行傾斜。

And then as we want to move more, we're going to need the bar to be raised relative to acceptance and brand. And that's why I think these other investments we're talking about will be multiyear, there'll be over time, and there will be things that help make the deal pay off even more so.in the longer term.

隨著我們想要取得更大進步，我們需要提高接受度和品牌的標準。這就是為什麼我認為我們正在談論的其他投資將是多年的，並且會隨著時間的推移而發展，並且會有一些事情有助於使這筆交易在長期內獲得更多的回報。

John Hecht, Jefferies.

傑富瑞的約翰‧赫克特 (John Hecht)。

First question, just thinking about the mix of the overall consumer book, I mean you've got some new cars like the Venture 1 and Quicksilver and some of those are attractive to different demographic groups and then you've got the subprime mix and then you've got auto. Where do we see -- just given kind of inbound customer mix, where do we see that going this year as a stand-alone business? And then, Rich, do you have any comments on what the total portfolio might look like assuming the combination with Discover.

第一個問題，只是考慮一下整體消費者帳簿的組合，我的意思是你有一些新車，例如Venture 1 和Quicksilver，其中一些對不同的人口群體有吸引力，然後你有次級抵押貸款組合，然後你有汽車。我們看到－僅給定入站客戶組合，我們認為今年其作為獨立業務將走向何方？然後，Rich，對於與 Discover 合併後的整體投資組合將會是什麼樣子，你有何評論？

Yeah. So thank you, John. So we -- so let me take Discover just in a minute. So if you pull way up on Capital One, for a long, long time. Capital One has been a full spectrum player. We have had -- for several decades, we have had a subprime business that is tailor-made for the information-based strategy we have because it's all about surviving and winning on the credit side of the business.

是的。所以謝謝你，約翰。所以，我們 — — 所以讓我在一分鐘內開始探索。因此，如果你在 Capital One 上停留很長很長時間。Capital One 是一家全方位的參與者。幾十年來，我們一直從事次級抵押貸款業務，該業務是根據我們的資訊策略量身定制的，因為它的關鍵在於在信貸業務中生存和獲勝。

But also in that business, we've also very, very much focused relative to others who play in the space to degree of exceptionally good deals.

但同時，在該行業中，我們也非常非常注重與其他在該領域開展業務的公司相比，獲得極佳的交易的程度。

It's not just about sort of surviving on the credit side, but really giving great deals, helping people use credit wisely. And in fact, really, I think the deals that we're offering are very, very simple and profoundly better than a lot of the deals that are available in the marketplace. And so that business has -- is a very stable part of what we do at Capital One, and we continue to lean into that.

這不僅關乎信貸方面的生存，還真正提供了優惠，幫助人們明智地使用信貸。事實上，我認為我們提供的交易非常非常簡單，而且比市場上許多交易要好得多。所以這項業務已經成為 Capital One 業務中非常穩定的一部分，我們將繼續依靠它。

The -- probably the most dramatic thing that's been happening in the last decade in Capital One's Card business is, as you referenced, the quest toward the top of the market. And that is a journey that as far out as we can see, we will continue to lean into that because there is so much opportunity at the top of the market. And obviously, it takes a lot of investment.

正如您所說，在過去十年中，Capital One 的信用卡業務中最引人注目的事情可能是對市場頂級地位的追求。這是我們能預見的旅程，我們將繼續致力於此，因為市場頂端有太多的機會。顯然，這需要大量的投資。

But the key indicator to us that when we stratify out the segments of our business, by spend levels, the part that's growing the fastest, consistently year after year at Capital One is the heaviest spenders. And there's just so much upside north of where we are, we will continue to invest in that.

但對我們來說，關鍵指標是，當我們根據支出水準對業務進行分層時，Capital One 中年復一年成長最快、持續成長的部分是支出最多的部分。而且，我們所在位置以北還有很大的上升空間，我們將繼續在該領域進行投資。

Now if you stand back, just think about our Card business, while our subprime business has been going along, and we keep leaning into that, there has been a gradual mix shift up market for the company. And even within each segment, within the sort of the subprime book, the sort of the prime book and certainly the top of the market, there has been a gradual mix change with a spender first philosophy that permeates our business. So that -- and some of that you can see in just some of the structural changes in the payment rates at Capital One.

現在，如果你退一步考慮我們的信用卡業務，我們的次級房貸業務一直在發展，我們不斷朝這一方向發展，公司的市場結構也逐漸向高端轉變。甚至在每個細分市場中，在次級抵押貸款賬簿的類型、優質抵押貸款賬簿的類型以及當然是頂級市場中，都已經發生了逐漸的組合變化，消費者優先的理念滲透到了我們的業務中。所以——您可以從 Capital One 的支付率的一些結構性變化中看到這一點。

So I believe that what you see and what you have seen for a number of -- for many years is a good prognosticator of probably how of the future of legacy Capital One would likely go, meaning continued leaning in across the spectrum, but differentially an awful lot of investment towards the top of the market and the most growth opportunity there.

因此，我相信你所看到的以及你多年來所看到的情況，可以很好地預測傳統 Capital One 的未來走向，這意味著它將繼續在各個方面保持領先，但會有所不同。投資湧向市場頂端，有最多的成長機會。

Now we -- now let me turn to Discover. Discover interestingly, has taken a very different approach than Capital One. While we have taken a very broad approach playing in all parts of the market, Discover has had a very focused strategy on the prime part of the business, and they've done a very, very good job there, and we certainly always admired them from the outside.

現在我們——現在讓我轉向發現。有趣的是，Discover 採取了與 Capital One 截然不同的方法。雖然我們採取了非常廣泛的策略，涉足市場的各個領域，但 Discover 的策略非常專注於業務的主要部分，他們在這方面做得非常非常好，我們當然一直很欽佩他們從外面。

So we will be bringing into our company a significant increase in that portion of the market, which probably differentially got a little less emphasis, if anything. It's not like we weren't playing there, but if anything, we had a greater emphasis probably north and south, of that part of the business. But -- so from a mix point of view, we certainly -- we will be bringing in a business that very homogeneous relative to the very heterogeneous business that we have.

因此，我們將為我們公司在該市場的進一步發展帶來顯著的成長，如果有什麼不同的話，那就是該市場可能之前受到的重視程度略低。這並不是說我們沒有在那裡做生意，但如果有的話，我們可能會更加重視那部分業務的北部和南部。但是 — — 從組合的角度來看，我們肯定會 — — 引入一個相對於我們現有的非常異質的業務而言非常同質的業務。

And then on the other side of all of that, I think that we will -- if I were to summarize our strategy, it will be to continue. Everything we were doing is Capital One because we're getting a lot of traction in that and then making very sure that we don't crush the butterfly of this beautiful business model that Discover has in the prime part of the market, but that we go in there.

另一方面，我認為我們會——如果我要總結我們的策略的話，那就是繼續下去。我們所做的一切都是 Capital One，因為我們在這方面獲得了極大的關注，然後我們非常確保我們不會破壞 Discover 在市場主要部分所擁有的這個美麗的商業模式，但我們進去吧。

And while, yes, integrating things like technology and some of the risk management processes and a lot of things, do everything that we can to make sure that we don't directly or even unwittingly sort of crush the really nice butterfly of what they do. And in that way, we hope to bring in a growth business that Discover has and added to the very complementary growth businesses that Capital One has and collectively continue to try to get the best of both worlds, bringing along the way some better efficiencies and really bringing top technology to all aspects of the business.

雖然，確實，整合技術和一些風險管理流程等很多東西，但我們盡一切努力確保我們不會直接甚至在不知不覺中破壞他們所做的真正美好的事情。透過這種方式，我們希望引入 Discover 所擁有的成長業務，並將其與 Capital One 所擁有的互補性成長業務相結合，並繼續共同努力，實現兩全其美，從而提高效率，真正將頂尖技術帶入企業的各個環節。

Well, thank you, everyone, for joining us on the conference call today, and thank you for your continuing interest in Capital One. Have a great night, everybody.

好吧，感謝大家今天的電話會議，也感謝大家對 Capital One 的持續關注。祝大家有個美好的夜晚。

Thanks, everybody.

謝謝大家。

This concludes today's conference call. Thank you for your participation. You may now disconnect.

今天的電話會議到此結束。感謝您的參與。您現在可以斷開連線。