Capital One Financial Corp (COF) 2024 Q3 法說會逐字稿

Good day, and thank you for standing by. Welcome to the Capital One Q3 2024, earnings call. Please be advised that today's conference is being recorded.

美好的一天，感謝您的支持。歡迎參加第一資本 2024 年第三季財報電話會議。請注意，今天的會議正在錄製中。

I would now like to hand the conference over to your speaker today, Jeff Norris, Senior Vice President of Finance. Please go ahead.

現在我想將會議交給今天的發言人、財務高級副總裁傑夫·諾里斯 (Jeff Norris)。請繼續。

Thanks very much, Josh, and welcome, everyone. We're webcasting live over the Internet as usual and to access the call on the Internet, please log onto Capital One's website at capitalone.com, and follow the links from there.

非常感謝，喬什，歡迎大家。我們像往常一樣透過網路進行網路直播，要在網路上進行電話會議，請登入 Capital One 的網站 CapitalOne.com，然後點擊其中的連結。

In addition to the press release and financials, we have included a presentation summarizing our third quarter 2024 results. With me today are Mr. Richard Fairbank, Capital One's Chairman and Chief Executive Officer; and Mr. Andrew Young, Capital One's Chief Financial Officer. Christian Andrew will walk you through this presentation.

除了新聞稿和財務數據之外，我們還提供了一份總結 2024 年第三季業績的簡報。今天與我在一起的有 Capital One 董事長兼首席執行官理查德·費爾班克 (Richard Fairbank) 先生；以及 Capital One 財務長 Andrew Young 先生。克里斯蒂安安德魯將引導您完成本次演示。

To access a copy of the presentation in the press release, please go to Capital One's website, click on Investors, then click on Financials and then click on quarterly earnings released. Please note that this presentation may contain forward looking statements.

若要取得新聞稿中的簡報副本，請造訪 Capital One 網站，按一下“投資者”，然後按一下“財務”，然後按一下“發佈的季度收益”。請注意，本簡報可能包含前瞻性陳述。

Information regarding Capital One's financial performance in any forward looking statements contained in today's discussion and the materials speak only as of the particular date or dates indicated in the materials. Capital One does not undertake any obligation to update or revise any of this information, whether as a result of new information, future events or otherwise.

今天的討論和資料中包含的任何前瞻性陳述中有關 Capital One 財務表現的資訊僅代表截至資料中指定的特定日期或日期。第一資本不承擔更新或修改任何此類資訊的義務，無論是由於新資訊、未來事件或其他原因。

Numerous factors could cause our actual results to differ materially from those described in forward-looking statements and for more information on these factors, please see the section titled Forward-looking Information in the earnings release presentation and the Risk Factors section of our annual and quarterly reports accessible at Capital One's website filed with the SEC.

許多因素可能導致我們的實際結果與前瞻性陳述中描述的結果存在重大差異，有關這些因素的更多信息，請參閱收益發布演示文稿中標題為前瞻性信息的部分以及我們的年度和季度報告中的風險因素部分報告可在第一資本網站向美國證券交易委員會提交的報告中取得。

Now I'll turn the call over to Mr. Young. Andrew?

現在我將把電話轉給楊先生。安德魯？

Thank Jeff, and good afternoon, everyone. I will start on slide 3 of tonight's presentation.

謝謝傑夫，大家下午好。我將從今晚演示的第三張幻燈片開始。

In the third quarter, Capital One earned $1.8 billion or $4.41 per diluted common share. Included in the results for the quarter were adjusting items related to discover integration costs and a small downward revision to our FDIC special assessment estimate.

第三季度，第一資本獲利 18 億美元，即每股稀釋普通股獲利 4.41 美元。本季的業績包括與發現整合成本相關的調整項目以及對 FDIC 特別評估估計的小幅下調。

Net of these adjusting items, third quarter earnings per share were $4.51. Pre-provision earnings in the third quarter increased 3% from the second quarter to $4.7 billion. Revenue in the linked quarter increased 5%, driven by higher net interest income.

扣除這些調整項目後，第三季每股收益為 4.51 美元。第三季撥備前獲利較第二季成長3%，達47億美元。由於淨利息收入增加，相關季度的收入增加了 5%。

Non-interest expense increased 7%, driven by increases in both operating expense and marketing spend. Provision for credit losses was $2.5 billion in the quarter, down $1.4 billion relative to the prior quarter. The quarterly decrease was primarily driven by the absence of the second quarter's one-time allowance build for the termination of the Walmart partnership, a decline in the coverage ratio in card and a $40 million decrease in net charge-offs.

在營運費用和行銷支出增加的推動下，非利息費用增加了 7%。本季信貸損失準備金為 25 億美元，較上一季減少 14 億美元。這一季度的下降主要是由於第二季度取消了因終止與沃爾瑪合作夥伴關係而建立的一次性津貼、信用卡覆蓋率下降以及淨沖銷減少 4000 萬美元。

Turning to slide 4, I will cover the allowance in greater detail.

前往投影片 4，我將更詳細地介紹津貼。

We released $134 million in allowance this quarter. In our allowance balance now stands at $16.5 billion. Our total portfolio coverage ratio decreased 7 basis points to 5.16%. The decrease in this quarter's allowance coverage ratio was largely driven by allowance releases in our card and consumer banking segments.

本季我們發放了 1.34 億美元的補助。我們的津貼餘額目前為 165 億美元。我們的總投資組合覆蓋率下降 7 個基點至 5.16%。本季撥備覆蓋率的下降主要是由於我們的銀行卡和消費銀行業務撥備發放所致。

I'll cover the drivers of the changes in allowance coverage ratio by segments on Slide 5.

我將在投影片 5 上按部分介紹津貼覆蓋率變化的驅動因素。

In our Domestic Card business, we released $66 million of allowance, which decreased coverage by 18 basis points to 8.36%. Our credit outlook has improved slightly as our confidence in the stability of underlying credit trends has grown, driving a modest relief and allowance.

在國內卡業務中，我們發放了 6,600 萬美元的補貼，覆蓋率下降了 18 個基點至 8.36%。隨著我們對基本信貸趨勢穩定性的信心增強，我們的信貸前景略有改善，推動了適度的減免和補貼。

In our Consumer Banking segment, we released $50 million in allowance, resulting in a 10 basis points decrease to our coverage ratio. The release was driven by strong credit performance and increasing recoveries in our auto business. And finally, our commercial banking allowance decreased by $14 million. Resulting the coverage ratio remaining essentially flat at 1.76%.

在我們的消費者銀行業務部門，我們發放了 5000 萬美元的準備金，導致我們的覆蓋率下降了 10 個基點。此次發布是由強勁的信用表現和我們汽車業務的復甦不斷推動的。最後，我們的商業銀行津貼減少了 1400 萬美元。結果覆蓋率基本持平於 1.76%。

Turning to page 6. I'll now discuss liquidity. Total liquidity reserves in the quarter increased about $9 billion to approximately $132 billion. Our cash position ended the quarter at approximately $49 billion, up about $4 billion from the prior quarter. Driven primarily by continued strong deposit growth. Our preliminary average liquidity coverage ratio during the third quarter was 163%, up from 155%.

翻到第6頁。我現在將討論流動性。本季流動性儲備總額增加約 90 億美元，達到約 1,320 億美元。本季末，我們的現金部位約為 490 億美元，比上一季增加約 40 億美元。主要受到存款持續強勁成長的推動。我們第三季的初步平均流動性覆蓋率為 163%，高於 155%。

Turning to page 7, I'll cover our net interest margin. Our third quarter net interest margin was 7.11%, 41 basis points higher than last quarter and 42 basis points higher than the year-ago quarter. The sequential increase in NIM was largely the result of three factors.

翻到第 7 頁，我將介紹我們的淨利差。我們第三季淨利差為7.11%，較上季高出41個基點，較去年同期高出42個基點。淨利差的連續增加主要是三個因素的結果。

First, we had higher card and auto yields. As a reminder, the card yield benefited from a full quarter impact of the termination of the revenue sharing agreement with Walmart. The removal of revenue sharing increase the total company name by 12 basis points quarter-over-quarter and 22 basis points relative to the year-ago quarter.

首先，我們的卡片和汽車產量更高。提醒一下，信用卡收益率受益於與沃爾瑪終止收入分享協議的整個季度的影響。取消營收分成後，公司總名稱較上季增加 12 個基點，較去年同期增加 22 個基點。

Second, there was one additional day in the third quarter. And finally, we had a higher mix of card loans on the balance sheet. Turning to slide 8, I will end by discussing our capital position. Our common equity Tier 1 capital ratio ended the quarter at 13.6%, 40 basis points higher than the prior quarter.

其次，第三節又多了一天。最後，我們的資產負債表上有更多的銀行卡貸款組合。轉向幻燈片 8，我將透過討論我們的資本狀況來結束。本季末，我們的普通股一級資本比率為 13.6%，比上一季高 40 個基點。

Higher net income in the quarter was partially offset by the impact of dividends, loan growth and $150 million of share repurchases.

本季較高的淨利潤被股息、貸款成長和 1.5 億美元股票回購的影響部分抵消。

As a reminder, the announcement of the acquisition of Discover constituted a material business change. Therefore, we continue to be subject to the Federal Reserve's preapproval of our capital actions until the merger approval process has concluded.

需要提醒的是，收購 Discover 的公告構成了重大業務變化。因此，在合併審批程序結束之前，我們的資本行動仍需獲得聯準會的預先批准。

With that, I will turn the call over to Rich. Rich?

這樣，我就把電話轉給里奇。富有的？

Thank you, Andrew, and good evening, everyone.

謝謝你，安德魯，大家晚上好。

Slide 10 shows third quarter results in our credit card business. Credit Card segment results are largely a function of our Domestic Card results and trends, which are shown on Slide 11.

投影片 10 顯示了我們信用卡業務第三季的業績。信用卡細分市場的結果很大程度取決於我們的國內卡結果和趨勢，如投影片 11 所示。

In the third quarter. Our domestic card business delivered another quarter of top line growth, strong margins and stable credit. Year-over-year, purchase volume growth for the quarter was 5%, ending loan balances increased $9.1 billion or about 6% year-over-year. Average loans increased about 7%, and third quarter revenue was up 10%, driven by the growth in purchase volume and loan.

在第三季。我們的國內卡業務又實現了一個季度的收入成長、強勁的利潤率和穩定的信用。本季採購量年增 5%，期末貸款餘額增加 91 億美元，年增約 6%。在採購量和貸款成長的推動下，平均貸款成長約 7%，第三季營收成長 10%。

Revenue margin for the quarter increased 43 basis points year-over-year to 18.7%. For the full quarter, effect of the end of the Walmart revenue sharing agreement drove a 51 basis points year-over-year increase. Excluding this impact, the revenue margin would I have been about 18.2%.

該季度的營收利潤率年增 43 個基點至 18.7%。就整個季度而言，沃爾瑪營收分享協議終止的影響推動了年增 51 個基點。排除此影響，營收利潤率約為 18.2%。

The charge-off rate for the quarter was 5.61%, the full quarter impact of the end of the Walmart loss sharing agreement increased the quarterly charge-off rate by 38 basis points. Excluding this impact, that charge-off rate for the quarter would have been 5.23%, up 83 basis points year-over-year.

該季度的核銷率為5.61%，沃爾瑪損失分擔協議結束的整個季度影響使季度核銷率增加了38個基點。剔除此影響，本季核銷率為 5.23%，較去年同期上升 83 個基點。

The 30 plus delinquency rate at quarter end was 4.53%, up 22 basis points from the prior year. As a reminder, the end of the Walmart loss sharing agreement did not have a meaningful impact on the delinquency rate.

季末 30 歲以上的拖欠率為 4.53%，比去年同期上升 22 個基點。提醒一下，沃爾瑪損失分擔協議的終止並沒有對拖欠率產生有意義的影響。

The pace of year-over-year increases in both the charge off rate and the delinquency rate have been steadily declining for several quarters and continued to shrink in the third quarter. On a sequential quarter basis, the charge off rate excluding Walmart impact, was down 63 basis points and the 30 plus delinquency rate was up 39 basis points. Both sequential quarter trends are consistent with seasonal expectations.

沖銷率和拖欠率的同比增長速度連續幾個季度穩步下降，並在第三季度繼續縮小。從季來看，剔除沃爾瑪影響的沖銷率下降了 63 個基點，30+ 拖欠率上升了 39 個基點。兩個連續季度的趨勢都與季節性預期一致。

Domestic Card noninterest expense was up 12% compared to the third quarter of 2023, primarily driven by higher marketing expense. Total company marketing expense in the quarter was $1.1 billion, up 15% year-over-year.

與 2023 年第三季相比，國內卡非利息費用增加了 12%，這主要是由於行銷費用增加。該季度公司行銷費用總額為 11 億美元，年增 15%。

Our choices and domestic card are the biggest driver of total company marketing. We continue to see compelling growth opportunities in our Domestic Card business. Our marketing continues to deliver strong new account growth across the domestic card business compared to the third quarter of 2023, domestic card marketing in the quarter included increased marketing to grow originations at the top of the market, higher media spend and increased investment in differentiated customer experiences like our travel portal, airport lounges and Capital One shopping.

我們的選擇和國內卡是整個公司行銷的最大推動力。我們繼續看到國內卡業務具有引人注目的成長機會。與2023 年第三季相比，我們的行銷繼續在國內卡業務中帶來強勁的新帳戶成長，本季的國內卡行銷包括增加行銷以增加市場頂部的起源、更高的媒體支出以及增加對差異化客戶的投資我們的旅行入口網站、機場休息室和第一資本購物等體驗。

Slide 12 shows third quarter results. In our Consumer Banking business. Auto originations were up 23% year-over-year in the third quarter. Our stable credit performance, which is the result of choices we've made over the past couple of years, puts us in a strong position to lean into current origination opportunities in the marketplace.

投影片 12 顯示了第三季的業績。在我們的消費者銀行業務中。第三季汽車產量年增 23%。我們穩定的信用表現是我們過去幾年所做的選擇的結果，這使我們處於有利地位，可以利用市場上當前的創始機會。

Consumer Banking Ending loans were at essentially flat year-over-year, and average loans were down 1%. On a linked quarter basis, ending loans and average loans were both up 1%. Compared to the year ago quarter, both ending and average consumer deposits were up about 6%.

消費者銀行業務期末貸款年比基本持平，平均貸款下降 1%。按季度計算，期末貸款和平均貸款均成長 1%。與去年同期相比，期末消費者存款和平均消費者存款均成長約 6%。

Consumer tumor banking revenue for the quarter was down about 3% year-over-year, largely driven by higher deposit costs compared to the prior year quarter. Non-interest expense was up about 5% compared to the third quarter of 2023, driven largely by continued technology investments and increased auto originations.

本季消費者腫瘤銀行業務收入年減約 3%，主要是由於存款成本較上年同期上升。與 2023 年第三季相比，非利息支出成長了約 5%，這主要是由於持續的技術投資和汽車生產增加所致。

The auto charge-off rate for the quarter was 2.05%, up 28 basis points year-over-year. The 30 plus delinquency rate was 5.61%, down 3 basis points year-over-year, largely as a result of our choice to tighten credit and pull back in 2022, auto charge-offs have been strong and stable.

本季汽車核銷率為2.05%，較去年同期上升28個基點。30+拖欠率為5.61%，年減3個基點，主要是由於我們選擇在2022年收緊信貸並縮減規模，汽車沖銷一直強勁且穩定。

Slide 13 shows third quarter results for our commercial banking business.

投影片 13 顯示了我們商業銀行業務第三季的業績。

Compared to the linked quarter, ending loan balances decreased about 2%. Average loans were down about 1%. The modest declines are largely the result of choices we made in 2023, to tighten credit. Ending deposits were up about 5% from the linked quarter.

與上一季相比，期末貸款餘額下降約 2%。平均貸款下降約1%。適度的下降主要是我們在 2023 年做出的收緊信貸選擇的結果。期末存款較上一季成長約 5%。

Average deposits were down about 1%. We continue to manage down selected less attractive commercial deposit balances. Third quarter revenue was up 1% from the linked quarter and non-interest expense was up by about 2%.

平均存款下降約1%。我們繼續管理一些吸引力較低的商業存款餘額。第三季營收較上一季成長 1%，非利息支出成長約 2%。

The commercial banking annualized net charge-off rate for the third quarter increased 7 basis points from the sequential quarter to 0.2% for commercial banking in criticized performing loan rate was six -- was 7.66%, down 96 basis points compared to the linked quarter. The criticized non-performing loan rate increased 9 basis points to 1.55%.

商業銀行第三季年化淨核銷率較上季上升7個基點至0.2%，受批評的商業銀行不良貸款利率為6-7.66%，較上季下降96個基點。備受詬病的不良貸款率上升9個基點至1.55%。

In closing, we continued to post strong results in the third quarter. We delivered another quarter of top-line growth in domestic card loans, purchased volume and revenue. In the auto business. We saw year-over-year growth in originations for the third consecutive quarter, and consumer credit trends remained stable.

最後，我們在第三季持續公佈強勁的業績。我們在國內卡貸款、購買量和收入方面實現了另一個季度的成長。在汽車產業。我們看到發放量連續第三個季度年增，消費信貸趨勢保持穩定。

Our year-to-date operating efficiency ratio net of adjustments through September was 41.7% . We had guided to 2024, annual operating efficiency ratio, net of adjustments to be modestly down compared to the 43.5% we posted in 2023.

扣除截至 9 月的調整後，我們年初至今的營運效率為 41.7%。我們預計到 2024 年，扣除調整後的年度營運效率將比 2023 年公佈的 43.5% 略有下降。

Our view included the positive impact from the end of the revenue sharing related to the Walmart partnership and assumed the CFPB late fee rule would take effect in October . Looking forward, we now we expect the full year 2024, annual operating efficiency ratio, net of adjustments to be in the low 42s.

我們的觀點包括與沃爾瑪合作夥伴關係相關的收入分享結束的正面影響，並假設 CFPB 滯納金規則將於 10 月生效。展望未來，我們預計 2024 年全年，扣除調整後的年度營運效率將在 42 左右。

We expect a sequential quarter increase in operating expense in the fourth quarter. That will be roughly in line with historical patterns as we continue to invest in our our technology transformation, and we are no longer assuming that the CFPB late fee rule will be implemented in 2024, given ongoing uncertainty around industry litigation.

我們預計第四季營運費用將季增。隨著我們繼續投資技術轉型，這將大致符合歷史模式，鑑於產業訴訟持續存在不確定性，我們不再假設 CFPB 滯納金規則將於 2024 年實施。

Our view of 2024 marketing has not changed. We continue to lean into marketing to grow and to further strengthen our franchise in the domestic card business. We continue to get traction in originations across our products and channels.

我們對 2024 年行銷的看法沒有改變。我們繼續依靠行銷來發展並進一步加強我們在國內卡業務的特許經營權。我們繼續在我們的產品和管道中獲得原創性的吸引力。

In Consumer Banking were leaning into marketing to grow our Digital First National Banking franchise. We continue to expect total company marketing in the second half of 2024, to be meaningfully higher than in the first half, similar to the pattern we saw last year, and that includes the much higher marketing levels that we typically see in the fourth quarter.

在消費者銀行業務中，我們傾向於行銷來發展我們的數位第一國民銀行業務。我們仍然預計 2024 年下半年的公司行銷總額將顯著高於上半年，與我們去年看到的模式類似，其中包括我們通常在第四季度看到的更高的行銷水平。

And turning to the Discover acquisition, we're working closely with the regulators as our applications continue to work their way through the regulatory approval process. Separately, Discover mentioned in their press release and on their earnings call last week that they continue to work in parallel with the SEC to resolve comments regarding their accounting approach for their card misclassification matter.

至於 Discover 收購，我們正在與監管機構密切合作，因為我們的應用程式將繼續通過監管審批流程。另外，Discover 在其新聞稿和上週的財報電話會議上提到，他們將繼續與 SEC 並行工作，以解決有關其卡片錯誤分類問題的會計方法的評論。

As soon as that process ramps up, we expect to mail out a joint proxy and a schedule -- and to schedule a shareholder vote most likely early next year. We remain well positioned to get shareholder and regulatory approvals, and we expect to be in a position to complete the acquisition early in 2025, subject to regulatory and shareholder approval.

一旦流程啟動，我們預計將郵寄一份聯合委託書和一份時間表，並最有可能在明年初安排股東投票。我們仍然有能力獲得股東和監管機構的批准，並且在獲得監管機構和股東批准的情況下，我們預計能夠在 2025 年初完成收購。

Pulling way up the acquisition of Discover is a singular opportunity. It will create a Consumer Banking and Global Payments platform with unique capabilities, modern technology, powerful brands and a franchise and more than 100 million customers.

加快收購 Discover 是一個難得的機會。它將創建一個擁有獨特功能、現代技術、強大品牌和特許經營權以及超過1億客戶的消費者銀行和全球支付平台。

It delivers compelling financial results and offers the potential to enhance competition and create significant value for merchants and customers. And now we'll be happy to answer your questions.

它提供了引人注目的財務業績，並提供了增強競爭並為商家和客戶創造巨大價值的潛力。現在我們很樂意回答您的問題。

Jeff. Thank you, Rich. We will now start the Q&A session. (Event Instructions)

傑夫.謝謝你，里奇。我們現在開始問答環節。（活動須知）

Thank you. (Operator Instructions) Ryan Nash, Goldman Sachs.

謝謝。（操作員指令）Ryan Nash，高盛。

Hey, good afternoon, everyone. So Rich, maybe just start on credit. You obviously have -- what you can see lots of different parts of the consumer market, high-end consumer, subprime, prime, private label, different parts of auto.

嘿，大家下午好。那麼富有，也許就開始賒帳吧。顯然，您可以看到消費市場的許多不同部分，高端消費者，次級貸款，優質貸款，自有品牌，汽車的不同部分。

And you guys seem to be bucking the trend with really solid credit results. So I think some others aren't. So maybe can you just talk about what you're seeing across consumer in some of these different cohorts? And maybe what do you think it means for where losses could be in some of your main asset classes. I have a follow-up.

你們似乎正在逆勢而上，並且取得了非常可靠的信用表現。所以我認為其他一些人不是。那麼，也許您可以談談您在這些不同群體中的一些消費者中看到的情況嗎？也許您認為這對於您的某些主要資產類別可能出現的損失意味著什麼。我有一個後續行動。

Okay. Thank you, Ryan. So let me just pull up and just talk first about the health of the consumer. I think the US consumer remains a source of relative strength in the overall economy. Think about this, the labor market remains strong.

好的。謝謝你，瑞安。因此，讓我停下來，先談談消費者的健康。我認為美國消費者仍是整體經濟相對強勢的來源。想想看，勞動市場依然強勁。

We saw signs of softening in the first half of 2024, and the unemployment rate picked up a bit. But the most recent data points on unemployment and job creation have actually shown renewed strength. Incomes are growing in real terms. And last month, we saw a significant upward revision of the savings rate.

2024年上半年我們看到了疲軟的跡象，失業率略有上升。但失業和就業創造的最新數據實際上顯示出新的強勁勢頭。實際收入正在成長。上個月，我們看到儲蓄率大幅調高。

Consumer debt servicing burdens are stable relative to pre-pandemic levels and consumers have higher average bank account balances than before the pandemic. We see some pockets of pressure related to sort of the cumulative effects of inflation and elevated interest rates.

消費者償債負擔相對於疫情前的水準穩定，消費者的平均銀行帳戶餘額比疫情前更高。我們看到一些與通貨膨脹和利率上升的累積效應有關的壓力。

And we are almost certainly still seeing thing that we've been calling out for years, even really before it happened saying, we think it inevitably will happen. But we won't fully be able to measure that. We won't be able to measure that along the way, but that is delayed charge-offs from the pandemic period.

我們幾乎肯定仍然看到我們多年來一直呼籲的事情，甚至在它發生之前就說，我們認為它不可避免地會發生。但我們無法完全衡量這一點。我們無法一路衡量這一點，但這是大流行期間的延遲沖銷。

We should remember that millions of consumers who would have charged off under normal circumstances in 2020, 2021 and 2022, avoided defaulting thanks to unprecedented stimulus and forbearance. And these consumers were on the edge and they got a lifeline. But for some of them, their underlying vulnerability remains.

我們應該記住，在 2020 年、2021 年和 2022 年，數百萬在正常情況下會註銷的消費者，由於前所未有的刺激和寬容而避免了違約。這些消費者處於邊緣，他們得到了生命線。但對其中一些人來說，他們潛在的脆弱性仍然存在。

So I believe that what we're seeing today is some catching up from that period of historically low charge-offs. So I'd say consumers on the whole are in good shape compared to most historical benchmarks, but I do think there are some pockets of pressure that will persist until we fully work through this cycle essentially of inflation and elevated interest rates. And of course, for an unmeasurable period of time that there will be, I think, this delayed charge-off effect from the pandemic.

因此，我相信我們今天看到的情況是在追趕歷史上較低的沖銷時期。因此，我想說，與大多數歷史基準相比，消費者整體狀況良好，但我確實認為，在我們完全度過這個主要是通貨膨脹和利率上升的周期之前，一些壓力將持續存在。當然，我認為，在一段不可估量的時間內，疫情將會產生這種延遲的沖銷效應。

So that's a comment, Ryan, sort of on the consumer generally. You said you had another question. Of course, I can get into Capital One's individual credit as well. But why don't I hear where you want to take this?

瑞安，這就是對消費者的普遍評論。你說你還有一個問題。當然，我也可以進入第一資本的個人信用。但我為什麼沒聽說你想把它帶到哪裡呢？

Yeah. And it would be helpful if you can comment on Capital One, specifically, but maybe I'll throw another question for Andrew, and you guys can handle both of them. So Andrew, obviously, there was a big beat on the net interest margin.

是的。如果你能具體評論第一資​​本，那將會很有幫助，但也許我會向安德魯提出另一個問題，你們可以處理這兩個問題。因此，安德魯顯然淨息差大幅成長。

And the Fed has begun easing. I'm just curious if you can maybe just talk about the drivers and expectations for the margin from here? And just given you've historically operated in this kind of six, eight or nine range, but given the balance sheet -- the changing balance sheet dynamics, do you think we've sort of broken out of that range?

聯準會已經開始寬鬆。我只是好奇您是否可以在這裡談談驅動因素和對利潤的期望？考慮到您歷史上一直在這種六、八或九個範圍內運營，但考慮到資產負債表——不斷變化的資產負債表動態，您認為我們已經突破了這個範圍嗎？

Yeah, Ryan. Look, as I think about the NIM in the near term, I enumerated the driving forces of what led to the increase this quarter. But in the near term outside of seasonal effects, we have one modest likely headwind, which, as you can see in our disclosures, is that we're asset-sensitive.

是的，瑞安。看，當我考慮近期的淨利差時，我列舉了導致本季成長的驅動力。但在短期內，除了季節性影響之外，我們可能面臨一個溫和的阻力，正如您在我們的揭露中看到的那樣，我們對資產敏感。

And so that will put a bit of pressure on NIM in the immediate term. But we also have one potential tailwind, I'll call it, and that is the pace of card growth relative to the rest of the balance sheet, and you've seen that be a tailwind to NIM, all else equal over the last few quarters.

因此，這將在短期內給南洋帶來一些壓力。但我們也有一個潛在的順風，我稱之為，那就是銀行卡相對於資產負債表其他部分的增長速度，你已經看到，這對 NIM 來說是一個順風，過去幾年其他條件都相同宿舍。

Longer term, I think there's a few headwinds and tailwinds. The tailwind being, again, card even beyond the next few quarters, we've seen strong growth, particularly relative to the rest of our balance sheet. I've highlighted in the past that our current levels of cash are likely above where we think they will eventually settle out. And if we were to see a steepening of the yield curve, that's also a good guide to us, all else equal.

從長遠來看，我認為存在一些逆風和順風。順風再次出現，甚至超出了接下來的幾個季度，我們看到了強勁的成長，特別是相對於我們資產負債表的其他部分而言。我過去曾強調過，我們目前的現金水準可能高於我們認為最終會解決的水平。如果我們看到殖利率曲線變得陡峭，那麼在其他條件相同的情況下，這對我們來說也是一個很好的指導。

On the headwind side, I think there's a question of where betas go from here, and there's a possibility that they could be slower or lower depending on a host of factors. We could maintain cash levels for some period of time, at least, especially in light of the strong deposit growth we're seeing. And then always, there's a little bit of a wildcard of the path of credit, right? And so if some reason, it stays elevated, the potential revenue suppression could be a headwind.

在逆風方面，我認為存在一個問題，即貝塔值將何去何從，並且根據多種因素，貝塔值可能會變慢或降低。至少，我們可以在一段時間內維持現金水平，特別是考慮到我們看到的存款強勁增長。而且信貸之路總是有一點通配符，對吧？因此，如果出於某種原因，它保持在高位，潛在的收入抑制可能會成為一個阻力。

But overall, I would say, taking all of those factors into account you've kind of seen the stability over the last few quarters prior to this one and a step up here in the third quarter. And so I'll let you kind of weigh all of the headwinds and tailwinds that I just laid out for you.

但總的來說，我想說，考慮到所有這些因素，您已經看到了在此之前的最後幾季的穩定性以及第三季的進步。因此，我將讓您權衡我剛剛為您列出的所有不利因素和有利因素。

So Ryan, I talk generally about the consumer. Let me talk a little bit about Capital One specifically what we see, and this is, of course, partly because of what I just said about the consumer and some Capital One-specific things as well.

瑞安，我一般性地談論消費者。讓我談談我們所看到的第一資本，當然，這部分是因為我剛才所說的消費者以及一些第一資本特定的事情。

So in the card business, our delinquencies and charge-offs are consistent with normal seasonality now, and it's clear that our card credit has settled out. It's also clear that it settled out above pre-pandemic levels. And sort of there's three main reasons for this. First, we still have relatively lower recoveries compared to before the pandemic as a result of historically low charge-offs in the rearview mirror and therefore, in our charge-off inventory.

所以在卡片業務方面，我們的拖欠和沖銷現在與正常的季節性是一致的，很明顯我們的卡信用已經結算了。同樣明顯的是，它的穩定水平高於大流行前的水平。造成這種情況的主要原因有三。首先，與疫情大流行之前相比，我們的復甦速度仍然相對較低，因為後視鏡中的核銷數量處於歷史低位，因此我們的核銷庫存也處於歷史低點。

So our recovery rate per dollar of charge-offs has been stable, if anything, in fact, a bit better than before the pandemic, but just the inventory remains below pre-pandemic levels, but it's rising. It's heading toward returning to the pre-pandemic levels. So this effect will diminish over the next few quarters, we would expect.

因此，我們每美元沖銷的回收率一直保持穩定，事實上，比大流行前要好一些，但庫存仍低於大流行前的水平，但它正在上升。它正在恢復到大流行前的水平。因此，我們預計這種影響將在未來幾季內減弱。

Secondly, with the cumulative effects of inflation and higher interest rates are creating affordability pressures for some consumers, particularly those whose incomes have not kept pace with inflation or have higher debt servicing burden. So we think that's a factor.

其次，隨著通膨和利率上升的累積效應，給一些消費者，特別是那些收入跟不上通膨或償債負擔較高的消費者帶來了承受壓力。所以我們認為這是一個因素。

And to your point, I'm actually not making a point about the low end of the market, whether measured by income or credit score, generally speaking, we've seen stronger relative income growth at the lower end of the distribution since 2020, and customers with the highest debt servicing burdens tend to skew more prime than subprime.

就你的觀點而言，我其實並不是強調市場的低端，無論是透過收入或信用評分來衡量，一般來說，自2020 年以來，我們看到低端市場的相對收入成長更為強勁，償債負擔最高的客戶往往更傾向於優質貸款而不是次級貸款。

And then, of course, the other factor that we would point out as to why charge-offs are settling out above the pre-pandemic levels is the delayed charge-off effect that we think is still playing through.

當然，我們要指出的另一個因素是，為什麼沖銷額會高於疫情前的水平，這是我們認為仍在發揮作用的延遲沖銷效應。

If I could just throw in an industry point just for a second. I should have mentioned this probably earlier because this isn't really a Capital One effect, but I think that what we see in industry data is that post pandemic origination vintages are running at higher risk level than pre-pandemic vintages probably because of inflated credit scores during the pandemic.

如果我能簡單介紹一下產業要點就好了。我應該早點提到這一點，因為這並不是真正的第一資本效應，但我認為我們在行業數據中看到的是，大流行後起源年份的風險水平高於大流行前年份，可能是因為信貸膨脹疫情期間的成績。

And that's an industry point, not a Capital One point because -- and then here, Ryan, is when you mentioned that you're seeing Capital One credit in some cases, move differently from some of the industry trends.

這是一個行業觀點，而不是第一資本觀點，因為瑞安，當你提到你看到第一資本信貸在某些情況下的變化與某些行業趨勢不同時。

At Capital One, we anticipated these effects related to some of the unusual things going on during the pandemic, and particularly, what we might say is the great inflation of credit scores. So we tightened our underwriting back in 2020, and '21 when credit was the best we've ever seen. And as credit normalized, we continued to make a just where we saw pockets of rising risk. What I was saying along the way where we kept trimming around the edges.

在第一資本，我們預計這些影響與疫情期間發生的一些不尋常的事情有關，特別是我們可能會說的信用評分的大幅膨脹。因此，我們在 2020 年和 21 年收緊了承保，當時信貸是我們見過的最好的。隨著信貸正常化，我們繼續在風險上升的地方採取措施。我一路上所說的，我們一直在修剪邊緣。

So the result for Capital One has been relatively stable performance on our recent originations now for a long time, which are really running at similar levels of risk to pre-pandemic vintages. But I do think there is some underlying worsening in the marketplace that may be showing up elsewhere that some of our choices were able to offset.

因此，第一資本的結果是，我們最近推出的產品在很長一段時間內表現相對穩定，這些產品的運作風險水準實際上與疫情前的年份相似。但我確實認為市場中存在一些潛在的惡化，這些惡化可能會出現在其他地方，而我們的一些選擇能夠抵消這些惡化。

So pulling way up, our credit results, we feel are strong and stable, driven by the choices that we've made through the pandemic and the post-pandemic period. And we feel very good about where we are, and it's an important reason that we are leaning in, as you can see, in terms of our originations in the business.

因此，在我們在大流行和大流行後時期做出的選擇的推動下，我們的信用結果大幅上升，我們感覺強勁而穩定。我們對自己所處的位置感覺非常好，正如您所看到的，就我們的業務起源而言，這是我們向前邁進的一個重要原因。

I can talk about auto at some point, but maybe I'll wait for another question on that.

我可以在某個時候談論汽車，但也許我會等待另一個問題。

Sanjay Sakhrani, KBW.

桑傑·薩赫拉尼 (Sanjay Sakhrani)，KBW。

Just following up on credit. -- Rich, you had mentioned, I mean it was last quarter or the quarter before, that we should start to see the credit, the delinquency improvements do better than seasonality. And I guess, stabilized at -- it's moving along with seasonality. Is some of that related to the stuff you were just talking about? Or do you still expect the improvement to be better than seasonality at some point?

只是跟進信用。 ——里奇，你提到過，我的意思是上個季度或前一個季度，我們應該開始看到信貸、拖欠率的改善比季節性更好。我想，穩定在——它隨著季節性而變化。其中有些內容與您剛才談論的內容有關嗎？或者您仍然預計在某個時候改善會比季節性更好？

Well, at some point, of course, can be a long time. But no, let me just say that I don't recall saying that we expected credit to be better than seasonality. I think what we have been saying over the last number of months, for a long time, we say credit is normalizing.

嗯，在某些時候，當然，可能會很長一段時間。但不，我只想說，我不記得說過我們預期信貸會比季節性更好。我認為我們在過去幾個月、很長一段時間裡一直在說，信貸正在正常化。

We are on the absolute lookout for the very early signs of credit normalizing, which it should, where exactly it will normalize, who knows until we actually get there. And so way back to more than a year ago, starting interestingly in the lower end of the market, we're pointing out that we see the signs of credit stabilizing. Of course, we all went down that ski slope of second derivative and that continues to be a strong effect.

我們絕對在尋找信貸正常化的早期跡象，它應該正常化，具體會在哪裡正常化，直到我們真正到達那裡誰知道。回到一年多前，有趣的是，從低端市場開始，我們指出我們看到了信貸穩定的跡象。當然，我們都走下了二階導數的滑雪坡，這仍然是一個強烈的影響。

But these are all things, Sanjay, that are going on related to credit stabilizing. And we have not declared that we think credit is in fact, headed down from here. At some point, we can, in another question, go through the potential case for that.

但桑傑，這些都是與信貸穩定相關的事。我們還沒有宣稱我們認為信貸實際上正在從現在開始下降。在某些時候，我們可以在另一個問題中討論一下潛在的情況。

I want to say one other thing though, you mentioned seasonality, and I put a marker down last quarter about a potential seasonality, a change in seasonality patterns that I'd like to just kind of seize the moment and comment on this because I think all of you that are watching the credit patterns on a monthly basis. It's really important that we talk about the seasonality benchmark to which to compare that.

我想說另一件事，你提到了季節性，我在上個季度做了一個關於潛在季節性的標記，季節性模式的變化，我想抓住時機對此發表評論，因為我認為你們所有人每月都會注意信用模式。我們討論與之比較的季節性基準非常重要。

So let's talk for a moment about how seasonality works. Our portfolio, in fact, tends to have more pronounced seasonal patterns than the industry average. The second quarter tends to be the seasonal low point for delinquencies and the fourth quarter tends to be the seasonal high point. Card losses lag relative to delinquencies, the losses tend to be seasonally the lowest in the third quarter and highest in the first quarter.

那麼讓我們來談談季節性是如何運作的。事實上，我們的投資組合往往比行業平均值具有更明顯的季節性模式。第二季往往是拖欠率的季節性低點，第四季往往是拖欠率的季節性高點。卡損失相對於拖欠率而言滯後，損失往往在第三季是季節性最低的，在第一季是最高的。

Now, we have always thought and still do that tax funds are a significant driver of these seasonal trends. And tax refunds drive a large seasonal improvement in delinquent payments in the February, March time period, which flows through to lower delinquencies in April, May and then to lower charge-offs in the August, September time frame. Tax refunds also drive a seasonal uptick in our recoveries.

現在，我們一直認為並且仍然認為稅收基金是這些季節性趨勢的重要驅動力。退稅推動二月、三月期間拖欠付款的季節性大幅改善，進而導致四月、五月拖欠率下降，然後導致八月、九月期間沖銷率下降。退稅也推動了我們的復甦的季節性上升。

Now, a few years ago, the tax withholding rules changed leading to fewer tax refunds and lower average refund payments. And the IRS was paying certain refunds later than before because of fraud-related issues that they had seen. So we were watching all this, but there was so much noise in the payment data due to the pandemic that we were unsure to what extent credit seasonality patterns had changed.

幾年前，預扣稅規則發生了變化，導致退稅減少和平均退稅金額降低。由於他們發現了與詐欺相關的問題，美國國稅局比以前更晚地支付了某些退款。因此，我們正在關注這一切，但由於大流行，支付數據中存在太多噪音，以至於我們不確定信貸季節性模式發生了多大程度的變化。

So in the first half of this year, as credit metrics settled out, we flagged that the combined effect of lower and later tax refunds the more it settles out, the more we can sort of see these underlying patterns. That we flagged that this combined effect was likely affecting our near-term credit performance by delaying and muting the usual seasonal improvement that we see in the second quarter.

因此，在今年上半年，隨著信貸指標的確定，我們指出，較低和較晚的退稅的綜合影響越多，我們就越能看到這些潛在的模式。我們指出，這種綜合效應可能會推遲和減弱我們在第二季度看到的通常的季節性改善，從而影響我們的近期信貸表現。

But we didn't want to go to the highest mountain top and declare that because we wanted to make sure we weren't explaining away credit numbers that, in fact, looked worse than seasonally what you would expect.

但我們不想去最高的山頂宣布這一點，因為我們想確保我們沒有解釋掉信用數字，事實上，信用數字看起來比你想像的季節性更糟糕。

We also, at the time, believed that we would see more muted seasonal increases in delinquencies in the third quarter on the other side of that effect. And we've now had several quarters to look at this, and that experience has been confirmatory.

當時我們也相信，在這種影響的另一面，第三季拖欠率的季節性成長將會更加溫和。我們現在已經有幾個季度的時間來研究這個問題，並且經驗已經得到證實。

And now that we're, in a sense, credit is coming in better than the old seasonal patterns. So we've seen both the worst side and the better side. I think we can pull up and really sort of declare this effect really seems to be happening. 2024, settled out with fewer refunds paid than before the pandemic and about 25% lower total refund volume in real terms.

從某種意義上說，現在我們的信貸狀況比舊的季節性模式更好。所以我們既看到了最壞的一面，也看到了最好的一面。我認為我們可以停下來並真正宣布這種效應似乎確實正在發生。到 2024 年，支付的退款比疫情前減少，實際退款總額減少約 25%。

So what we're basically seeing and pulling way up is that seasonality, which has, we believe, is driven predominantly by tax refunds as tax refunds become less of an effect, not surprisingly, in fact, we're seeing seasonality that has less amplitude to it. So that's I think the seasonality that we observe now and when we've done sort of an adjusted look at last year, we definitely think that we see the new trend.

因此，我們基本上看到並拉高的是季節性，我們認為，季節性主要是由退稅驅動的，因為退稅的影響越來越小，毫不奇怪，事實上，我們看到季節性的影響較小的振幅。這就是我認為我們現在觀察到的季節性，當我們對去年進行了某種調整後，我們肯定認為我們看到了新的趨勢。

By the way, on the auto side, all of this happens in auto seasonality, but an even faster and more concentrated way. So I think I just wanted to share that with you. But I think what we've really been declaring here, Sanjay, is that there's just such a confirmation that, that credit is really settling out here.

順便說一句，在汽車方面，所有這一切都以汽車季節性的方式發生，但速度更快、更集中。所以我想我只是想與大家分享這一點。但我認為，桑傑，我們真正在這裡宣布的是，有這樣一個確認，信用確實在這裡得到了解決。

Maybe my follow-up question would be the question you were looking for later. What's the path to normalization? And I guess for credit as well as the reserve rate. We're well above the levels we were in 2019. Maybe you and Andrew can tag team on that one.

也許我的後續問題就是您稍後要尋找的問題。正常化之路何在？我想是為了信貸和準備率。我們遠高於 2019 年的水準。也許你和安德魯可以在那一個上標記團隊。

So why don't I start, Andrew. So the we're really, really pleased with how card credit is settled out after quite a period of normalization. So looking ahead, while we're not giving guidance on future credit, I just want to point out a number of forces that play out. So the one force, of course, is the thing that we believe so strongly is there, but we can't measure it is the phenomenon of delayed charge-offs.

那我為什麼不開始呢，安德魯。因此，經過一段時間的正常化之後，我們對信用卡信用卡的結算方式感到非常非常滿意。因此，展望未來，雖然我們不會就未來信貸提供指導，但我只想指出一些正在發揮作用的力量。因此，當然，我們堅信存在一種力量，但我們無法衡量它，那就是延遲沖銷現象。

If you kind of look at the area under the curve of all the charge-offs that sort of didn't happen, we don't believe all of that area will play out over time. But if you look at the area below the curve and compare it to the area in a sense above the curve now, one can see that conceptually, there could be still quite a bit of, in a sense, delayed inventory that could happen. I just want to flag that effect. I think it's going to moderate at some point. But I think that effect will be with us for some time.

如果你看看所有沒有發生的沖銷曲線下的區域，我們不相信所有這些區域都會隨著時間的推移而消失。但如果你看看曲線下方的區域，並將其與曲線上方的區域進行比較，人們就會發現，從概念上講，從某種意義上說，仍然可能會出現相當多的延遲庫存。我只是想標記這種效果。我認為在某個時候它會有所緩和。但我認為這種影響將持續一段時間。

Another factor is the recoveries inventory that continues to rebuild, and that should be a gradual tailwind to our losses over time, all else being equal, and then the moderating inflation, I think, is a good guy for card credit. But still high interest rate, probably a source of pressure at the tails for some consumers, especially those with higher debt servicing burdens.

另一個因素是回收庫存繼續重建，隨著時間的推移，在其他條件相同的情況下，這應該會逐漸扭轉我們的損失，然後我認為，溫和的通膨對信用卡信用卡來說是一個好消息。但利率仍然很高，這可能對一些消費者，特別是那些償債負擔較高的消費者造成尾部壓力。

And of course, the economy will be a factor too. But those are just some of the forces I think are going to be at work as credit plays out here, Sanjay.

當然，經濟也是一個因素。但我認為，隨著信貸在這裡發揮作用，這些只是一些力量，桑傑。

And then with respect to allowance, Sanjay, obviously, we'll be allowing for growth. So that's the starting point on a dollar basis. I suspect you are more focused on coverage. So let me talk in coverage terms. First, and just very tactically as a reminder, near term, the fourth quarter, we typically have seasonally higher balances, and those balances just have lower coverage because of the high levels of expected payments. So all else equal, and I stress that point, but that would put downward pressure on coverage in the fourth quarter.

然後就津貼而言，桑傑，顯然，我們將允許增長。這就是以美元為基礎的起點。我懷疑你更關注報道。讓我談談覆蓋範圍。首先，從戰術上提醒一下，短期內，即第四季度，我們的餘額通常會季節性較高，而由於預期付款水平較高，這些餘額的覆蓋率較低。因此，其他條件都相同，我強調這一點，但這會對第四季度的覆蓋率造成下行壓力。

But in hearing your question, I think you're looking for a longer-term view. So first, the coverage over time is going to primarily be driven by our loss forecast and our confidence in those estimates. And so Rich just kind of shared the things that we'll be looking for and what will ultimately be driving those forecasts.

但在聽到你的問題時，我認為你正在尋找更長遠的觀點。因此，首先，隨著時間的推移，覆蓋範圍將主要取決於我們的損失預測和我們對這些估計的信心。Rich 只是分享了我們將要尋找的東西以及最終推動這些預測的因素。

But how the allowance then plays out relative to that, I think it's important to note that even if we find ourselves in future quarters where our projected losses are lower than the projected losses in the current quarter's forecast, we might see only modest declines in coverage as we incorporate uncertainties related to those projections.

但我認為，重要的是要注意，即使我們發現未來幾季的預期損失低於本季的預期損失，我們也可能會看到保險覆蓋率僅小幅下降。不確定性。

But eventually, that lower loss forecast if and when it comes through would theoretically flow through the allowance and bring the coverage ratio down as those uncertainties become more certain. And so the direction of that in that scenario would be down the pace and timing would obviously depend on a variety of factors.

但最終，隨著這些不確定性變得更加確定，較低的損失預測一旦實現，理論上將流經準備金並降低覆蓋率。因此，在這種情況下，其方向將放慢步伐，而時間顯然取決於多種因素。

Because you mentioned the CECL day one, I guess I'll end Sanjay, just as a reminder, one other call-out, using CECL day 1 as a rough proxy for through-the-cycle coverage assumption, it's important to note that embedded in CECL day one was the loss sharing agreement with Walmart.

因為你提到了 CECL 第一天，我想我會結束 Sanjay，只是作為一個提醒，另一個呼籲，使用 CECL 第一天作為整個週期覆蓋率假設的粗略代理，重要的是要注意嵌入CECL 的第一天就是與沃爾瑪簽訂損失分擔協議。

And so with the termination of that agreement, the roughly 50 basis points impact to allowance coverage that we recognized last quarter. I just want to make sure that as you're thinking about CECL day 1 excluding the Walmart effect, that 6.5% roughly percent is actually more like 7%.

因此，隨著協議的終止，大約 50 個基點對我們上季度認識到的津貼覆蓋率產生了影響。我只是想確保，當您在考慮 CECL 第一天（不包括沃爾瑪效應）時，大約 6.5% 的百分比實際上更像是 7%。

Hopefully, that gives you though a sense of the direction of travel.

希望這能讓您了解旅行的方向。

Terry Ma, Barclays.

馬特里，巴克萊銀行。

I wanted to touch on the auto business and ask kind of what you're seeing in the competitive environment and how you're thinking about growth going forward? You called out originations have been positive the last three quarters and looks like loan growth is going to turn positive. I know you're still mindful of used car prices. So should we expect more measured growth in auto going forward?

我想談談汽車業務，問一下您在競爭環境中看到了什麼以及您如何看待未來的成長？您指出過去三個季度的貸款發放量一直為正，看起來貸款成長將轉為正。我知道您仍然關註二手車價格。那麼，我們是否應該期待汽車產業未來更穩健的成長呢？

So yeah, thank you, Terry. Our auto originations, as you say, they've been growing now. I guess, it's the last three quarters. And as we stated in our prior calls, in 2022, and in early 2023, we had anticipated risk and pull back on our originations. And even as the vehicle values have been declining, the credit performance on both our front book and our back book remains very strong.

是的，謝謝你，特里。正如你所說，我們的汽車起源現在一直在增長。我想，這是最後三個季度。正如我們在先前的電話會議中所述，在 2022 年和 2023 年初，我們預見了風險並撤回了我們的創舉。即使車輛價值一直在下降，我們的帳面和帳面的信用表現仍然非常強勁。

So additionally, just talking about some industry factors, some of the headwinds that the industry has been facing with high interest rates and high vehicle prices are now easing as the interest rates have started to come down and vehicle values are down from their peak, although both of these remain higher than pre-pandemic levels. So interest margins on our -- also very important, interest margins on our front book have increased and credit has stabilized, and we're seeing opportunities to grow in a resilient way.

另外，就一些行業因素而言，隨著利率開始下降，汽車價值也從峰值回落，行業一直面臨的高利率和高汽車價格的一些阻力現在正在緩解，儘管這兩項指標仍高於大流行前的水平。因此，我們的利差——同樣非常重要的是，我們前台的利差已經增加，信貸已經穩定，我們看到了以彈性方式增長的機會。

So our strategy is to lean into areas that we like, and that is supported by our very sophisticated underwriting and technology infrastructure, our data-driven decisioning as well as deep relationships with our dealer network.

因此，我們的策略是專注於我們喜歡的領域，這得到了我們非常先進的承保和技術基礎設施、數據驅動的決策以及與經銷商網路的深厚關係的支持。

So looking ahead, we feel good about our auto business, and we feel we are well positioned to grow in a disciplined way, targeting particularly what we think is the very resilient business.

因此，展望未來，我們對我們的汽車業務感覺良好，並且我們認為我們已經做好了以有紀律的方式發展的有利條件，特別針對我們認為非常有彈性的業務。

Bill Carcache, Wolfe Research Securities.

比爾‧卡卡什 (Bill Carcache)，沃爾夫研究證券公司。

Following up on your NIM commentary, Andrew, if credit continues to trend in line or potentially by the normal seasonality from here? Is it reasonable to expect revenue suppression would begin to serve as more of a NIM tailwind that would arguably overwhelm some of the NIM headwinds that you described in your earlier response?

安德魯，根據您的 NIM 評論，信貸是否繼續保持一致或可能遵循正常的季節性趨勢？預期收入抑制將開始更多地成為淨息差順風，並可能壓倒您在先前的回覆中描述的一些淨息差逆風，是否合理？

Outside of seasonality, Bill, which is an important qualifier to that. But yes, to the extent that credit is coming down in an absolute sense, suppression is highly correlated with loss rates. So over a period of time, that's what we would expect to see.

除了季節性之外，比爾，這是一個重要的限定符。但是，是的，就信貸絕對意義上的下降而言，抑制與損失率高度相關。因此，在一段時間內，這就是我們期望看到的情況。

And then also another follow-up for you, Andrew. On your reserve commentary in prior quarters, qualitative overlays it seems, and please correct me if I'm wrong, it seems like it had the effect of preventing you from releasing reserves.

安德魯，還有另一個後續行動。在你前幾季的儲備評論中，似乎是定性的疊加，如果我錯了，請糾正我，它似乎起到了阻止你釋放儲備的作用。

Is it fair to conclude that this quarter's reserve release suggests you expect consumer credit conditions to continue to gradually improve from here to the point where that would support peak losses likely being -- or -- peak reserve rates likely being behind us at this point?

是否可以得出這樣的結論：本季的準備金釋放表明您預計消費者信貸狀況將繼續逐步改善，直至達到支撐峰值損失的程度，或者峰值準備金率可能已經過去？

It's hard to think about the qualitative factors in isolation, Bill, because we look at the totality of the forecast and the economic factors and that's just one albeit important, but component of thinking about the allowance overall. So really, the release this quarter was driven by the stability of underlying credit trends and just our confidence in those trends. So that's really the driver that led to this quarter's release.

比爾，很難孤立地考慮定性因素，因為我們會考慮預測和經濟因素的整體，這只是考慮總體津貼的一個重要因素，但也是其中的一部分。事實上，本季的發布是由基本信貸趨勢的穩定性以及我們對這些趨勢的信心所推動的。這確實是導致本季發布的驅動因素。

Don Fandetti, Wells Fargo.

唐范德蒂，富國銀行。

Rich, on the Discover merger, do you still feel like owning a network helps your position with regulatory approval. I mean I guess the DOJ suit against Visa does validate that. I'm just trying to get a sense on whether or not you feel like your arguments are resonating with regulators and you have confidence in the deal closing.

Rich，關於 Discover 合併，您是否仍然認為擁有一個網絡可以幫助您獲得監管部門的批准。我的意思是，我猜司法部針對 Visa 的訴訟確實證實了這一點。我只是想了解您是否覺得您的論點引起了監管機構的共鳴，以及您對交易完成是否有信心。

So I think this is an unusual deal in the sense that usually there is a player in a certain industry doing position of another player in that industry. And certainly, a part of the consideration is looking at those aspects. But the very unusual part here is two things. First of all, one is such an important part of this acquisition is buying a network, something that we don't have. So we're not even in that part of the business.

因此，我認為這是一筆不尋常的交易，因為通常某個行業中的一個參與者在該行業中擔任另一個參與者的職位。當然，考慮的一部分是考慮這些方面。但這裡非常不尋常的部分是兩件事。首先，這次收購的一個重要部分是購買網絡，這是我們沒有的。所以我們甚至不參與這部分業務。

But then secondly, of course, it is an acquisition, buying a position in an industry that is getting a tremendous amount of scrutiny for how concentrated it is. And the network that we are acquiring, for example, on the credit card side has gone from 6% down to 4% share in recent years.

但其次，當然，這是一次收購，購買一個行業中的一個職位，而這個行業的集中度正受到大量審查。例如，我們正在收購的網絡，例如信用卡方面的份額近年來已從 6% 下降到 4%。

And so certainly, we are making a strong case that to a regulator that obviously has shown they care a lot about competition in that marketplace that we certainly believe that this is very pro competitive in that sense. Of course, we also believe very much that on the credit card side, the deal is pro-competitive as well.

因此，當然，我們正在向監管機構提出強有力的理由，他們顯然已經表明他們非常關心該市場的競爭，我們當然相信從這個意義上來說，這是非常有利於競爭的。當然，我們也非常相信，在信用卡方面，這筆交易也有利於競爭。

John Hecht, Jefferies.

約翰‧赫克特，傑弗里斯。

Most of them have been asked and answered. I'm wondering if you guys can maybe give us some color on spend trends, the build business volumes. We've heard that the consumers being a little bit more cautious and careful or responsible with their spending as opposed to reacting to some sort of weakness or concerns about the economy. And I'm wondering what your opinion is on that and how that affects your business.

其中大多數已被詢問和回答。我想知道你們能否給我們一些關於支出趨勢、建立業務量的資訊。我們聽到消費者對自己的支出更加謹慎、謹慎或負責任，而不是對某種疲軟或對經濟的擔憂做出反應。我想知道您對此有何看法以及這對您的業務有何影響。

So John, thank you. The consumer spending has had a little bit of a wild ride over the past few years. So just to reflect for a second on this at the start of the pandemic, spend per customer plummeted then it surged as consumers resume their spending, and it has since been settling out.

約翰，謝謝你。過去幾年，消費者支出有點瘋狂。因此，在疫情開始時，我們想一下這一點，每位客戶的支出大幅下降，然後隨著消費者恢復支出而激增，此後一直穩定下來。

Since the beginning of 2023, our spend per customer has remained largely flat overall, although it has begun to tick up in recent months. So the spend growth that you see for Capital One is really being driven by the growth in new accounts and the spending on those accounts. And then we see just a little bit of a tick up in the last few months.

自 2023 年初以來，我們的每位客戶支出總體上基本持平，儘管近幾個月開始有所上升。因此，您看到的第一資本支出成長實際上是由新帳戶和這些帳戶支出的成長所推動的。然後我們看到過去幾個月略有上升。

While I know some people have kind of wondered if you double-click into the spend patterns, discretionary and non-discretionary spend have really the growth rates of them have been very stable lately. And in fact, the mix has been stable across incomes and FICOs and is in line with pre-pandemic levels.

雖然我知道有些人有點想知道是否雙擊支出模式，但可自由支配和非可自由支配支出的成長率最近確實非常穩定。事實上，收入和 FICO 的組合一直穩定，與大流行前的水平一致。

So we think things really have settled out in the card business with respect to spend. And it's really striking when we look at banking overall and pretty much the only industry that's really growing is the credit card industry, and it's been a tough way to make a living.

因此，我們認為信用卡業務在支出方面的情況確實已經解決。當我們審視整個銀行業時，這確實令人震驚，幾乎唯一真正成長的行業是信用卡產業，而這是一種艱難的謀生方式。

And most of the banking product areas. And that, of course, I think the credit card continues to be part of a very important and multi-decade macro trend with respect to the movement out of cash and checks and really into the incredibly convenient spending mechanisms of a credit card.

以及大部分銀行產品領域。當然，我認為信用卡仍然是一個非常重要的、數十年宏觀趨勢的一部分，即現金和支票的轉移，真正進入信用卡極其方便的消費機制。

So I think there's sort of a macro tailwind that can use to help the industry. And then I think for a lot of us, companies, certainly a few of us companies like Capital One, our strategies are very focused. It's what I call a spend first strategy so that a lot of what we do, the choices we make on the marketing side, on the credit side and really the business we want to be has a spend first lean to it. And that's another benefit to our metrics. Thank you, John.

因此，我認為存在某種宏觀順風可以用來幫助該行業。然後我認為對於我們許多公司來說，當然是像第一資本這樣的一些公司，我們的策略非常集中。這就是我所說的「支出第一」策略，因此我們所做的很多事情、我們在行銷方面、信貸方面做出的選擇以及我們真正想要成為的業務都傾向於「支出第一」。這是我們指標的另一個好處。謝謝你，約翰。

Mihir Bhatia, Bank of America.

米希爾·巴蒂亞，美國銀行。

Actually, just following up kind of similar lines as John's question about spending. Maybe just drilling down specifically on the venture ex portfolio. And I was wondering if you could just talk a little bit more about it. It's been in the market for a couple of years.

實際上，只是遵循與約翰關於支出的問題類似的思路。也許只是專門深入研究創投組合。我想知道你是否可以多談談這個問題。它已經上市幾年了。

Now just how much has it grown? How material is it to the overall card business? What are you seeing in terms of performance in that portfolio that's encouraging you to invest more in it, just any additional details would be great.

現在它成長了多少？它對整個卡片業務有多重要？您在該投資組合中看到的表現是什麼，鼓勵您對其進行更多投資，任何其他細節都很好。

Thank you, Mihir. So we launched our Venture X card in late 2021, and we're very pleased with the market response and the customer engagement so far. This launch is, of course, the continuation in our journey that's been many years in the making to win at the top of the market.

謝謝你，米希爾。因此，我們在 2021 年底推出了 Venture X 卡，我們對迄今為止的市場反應和客戶參與感到非常滿意。當然，這次發布是我們多年來贏得市場領先地位的旅程的延續。

And that journey started years ago with the declaration. And then we have continued to just sort of every year stretch a little higher and lean in to the momentum and the brand strength that we were getting and our market position to be able to keep growing. So Venture X was a very important milestone in that journey.

這趟旅程始於多年前的宣言。然後，我們繼續每年都向前邁進一點，並依靠我們所獲得的勢頭和品牌實力以及我們的市場地位來保持成長。因此，Venture X 是這趟旅程中非常重要的里程碑。

And also, very important in that journey to win at the top of the market was the launch of our Capital One travel portal and the opening of Capital One lounges as well as enhancements to our customers overall experience more broadly.

此外，在贏得市場頂端的過程中非常重要的是我們第一資本旅行入口網站的推出和第一資本休息室的開放，以及更廣泛地增強我們客戶的整體體驗。

And I'm sure you saw that actually in the third quarter of last year, we then launched the Venture X business card, and we're also pleased with the market response and customer engagement so far as well. So I guess the way -- while we don't give out the specific numbers on this, we continue to be very pleased with our quest to win at the top of the market and both of the Venture X products are getting a lot of traction so far. And as you can see, we're leaning in quite a bit.

我確信您已經看到，實際上在去年第三季度，我們推出了 Venture X 名片，我們對迄今為止的市場反應和客戶參與度也感到滿意。所以我想，雖然我們沒有給出具體數字，但我們仍然對贏得市場頂端的努力感到非常滿意，而且 Venture X 的兩款產品都受到了很大的關注迄今為止。正如你所看到的，我們已經取得了很大的進展。

But again, what I want to say is, I think one of the mistakes that card companies sometimes make is to think about a quest to win at the top of the market related to we're going to launch a particular product with these features. I really want to stress that winning at the top of the market requires a sustained comprehensive effort to create experiences, access to things that are unique and sort of something to tell your friends about.

但我想說的是，我認為卡公司有時會犯的錯誤之一是考慮在市場頂部贏得勝利，而我們將推出具有這些功能的特定產品。我真的想強調，要想在市場頂端獲勝，需要持續不斷的全面努力來創造體驗、獲得獨特的東西以及可以告訴你的朋友的東西。

Lounges, bull experience, rewards, of course. And then a very important component of this is building the brand credibility to be viewed as a premium player in that part of the marketplace. So all of that is what we're investing in. You've, of course, seen quite an increase in our marketing and a fair amount of that is in service of our continued quest at the top of the market.

當然，還有休息室、公牛體驗、獎勵。其中一個非常重要的組成部分是建立品牌信譽，使其被視為該市場的優質參與者。所以所有這些都是我們正在投資的。當然，您已經看到我們的行銷力度顯著增加，其中很大一部分是為了我們繼續追求市場的頂端。

But I would leave this one observation with you as well is that while you see the overall purchase volume growth rate for Capital One. When we break that data up by spend segment, basically, the higher the spend segment, meaning the higher we reach up in the marketplace, the faster our growth rate is, which is a confirmation of the traction we're getting, but also not only in overall volume, but the traction that we're getting reaching farther up.

但我還要向您留下這一觀察結果，即當您看到第一資本的整體購買量增長率時。當我們按支出細分數據時，基本上，支出細分越高，意味著我們在市場上的地位越高，我們的成長率就越快，這證實了我們所獲得的吸引力，但也不是僅僅在總量上，但我們正在獲得更進一步的牽引力。

Chase Haynes, Evercore ISI.

蔡斯·海恩斯，Evercore ISI。

It's John Pancari, Evercore ISI. I wanted to just ask on capital CET1 ratio at 13.6%. I wanted to get your updated thoughts here on how you think about buyback in that context? I know you had indicated that the Discover transaction could impact the pace of buybacks ultimately but you still bought back about $150 million in the third quarter. So I wanted to get your updated thoughts there.

我是 Evercore ISI 的 John Pancari。我只想問一下資本CET1比率是13.6%。我想了解您在這種情況下如何看待回購的最新想法？我知道您曾表示 Discover 交易可能最終會影響回購的步伐，但您仍然在第三季回購了約 1.5 億美元。所以我想了解您的最新想法。

Yeah, John. Look, there's a few forces at play that impact how we think about capital management, the first, of course, being the uncertainty around the endgame rule, the reproposal provided some high-level indications, but the devil is in the details there, not to mention the uncertainty on implementation timing.

是的，約翰。看，有一些力量在影響我們對資本管理的看法，當然，第一個是殘局規則的不確定性，提案提供了一些高層指示，但問題在於細節，而不是細節。的不確定性。

Second, although it's been moderating, of course, there still continues to be a degree of macroeconomic uncertainty. But last and perhaps most importantly, we have the pending Discover acquisition. And so post close, we will need to run both our internal assessment of the needs of the combined company, but we'll also go through the Fed's CCAR process to come up with our view and the Fed's view of the combined capital need -- combined company and to these capital need. So those are the reasons why we're operating at current levels and believe it's prudent to do so. And we've been at this $150 million a pace for a number of quarters.

其次，儘管成長速度有所放緩，但宏觀經濟仍存在一定程度的不確定性。但最後，或許也是最重要的是，我們還有懸而未決的 Discover 收購。因此，交易結束後，我們需要對合併後公司的需求進行內部評估，但我們也將透過聯準會的 CCAR 流程，提出我們的觀點以及聯準會對合併後的資本需求的看法——合併後的公司並滿足這些資本需求。因此，這就是我們以當前水準運作的原因，並相信這樣做是謹慎的。幾個季度以來，我們一直保持著每 1.5 億美元的成長速度。

Once we are act under an SCB regime, we'll, of course, have flexibility to return capital as we see appropriate, and you saw in late 2021, and early '22, when we had excess capital, we were returning that at something like $2.5 billion a quarter in repurchases.

一旦我們在 SCB 制度下採取行動，我們當然會在我們認為合適的情況下靈活地返還資本，你在 2021 年底和 22 年初看到，當我們有多餘的資本時，我們會以某種程度返還資本例如每季回購25 億美元。

So if we were to find ourselves in a similar position, we understand that returning excess capital is an important part of creating shareholder value, and we have the ability to do so quickly. But I go back to the forces at play of why we're operating where we are right now.

因此，如果我們發現自己處於類似的境地，我們就會明白返還多餘資本是創造股東價值的重要組成部分，我們有能力迅速做到這一點。但我要回到我們現在所處位置的影響因素。

Got it. Andrew, if I could just ask one more on the loan yield increase up about 58 basis points this quarter. How much of that increase was the impact from Walmart for the full quarter? And was there any impact on the APR from any increase to the APR in response to the proposed CFPB late fee rule?

知道了。安德魯，我能否再問一個關於本季貸款收益率成長約 58 個基點的問題。沃爾瑪整個季度的影響有多少？為響應擬議的 CFPB 滯納金規則而提高年利率是否會對年利率產生任何影響？

John, I just want to make sure I understand your question of the yields quarter-over-quarter thing or like year-over-year yield on card -- year-over-year yield in card is flat. When you take into account the effect of Walmart.

約翰，我只是想確保我理解你關於季度環比收益率或信用卡年同比收益率的問題——卡年同比收益率持平。當你考慮到沃爾瑪的影響。

Quarter-over-quarter, it's really just the seasonality effect. There's the partial quarter of Walmart, but yield is really the seasonal effects and partial quarter of Walmart when you're comparing third quarter to the second quarter.

環比來看，這其實只是季節性效應。有沃爾瑪的部分季度，但當您將第三季和第二季進行比較時，收益率實際上是季節性影響和沃爾瑪的部分季度。

Jeff Adelson, Morgan Stanley.

傑夫阿德爾森，摩根士丹利。

Just one for me to follow up on John's question there. Just on a late fee rule, I fully appreciate that things remain in flux at this point. Look, can you give us an update in your latest thinking and how you're potentially preparing for that with any offsets or mitigating actions.

只是讓我跟進約翰的問題。僅就滯納金規則而言，我完全理解目前情況仍在不斷變化。聽著，您能否向我們介紹一下您的最新想法，以及您如何透過任何抵銷或緩解措施來為此做好準備。

Have any of those actions have been taken yet? And I get that, you talked on taking a more mindful approach here. Just wanted to make sure that this is still the same approach you're taking? Or if there's anything else we should be thinking about in our models here?

是否已採取任何這些行動？我明白了，您談到在這裡採取更謹慎的方法。只是想確保這仍然是您正在採取的方法嗎？或者我們的模型中還應該考慮其他什麼？

So thank you, Jeff. So at this point, we're waiting for industry litigation to see if and when the late fee rule goes into effect. And we're not going to predict when that will happen.

謝謝你，傑夫。因此，目前我們正在等待產業訴訟，看看滯納金規則是否以及何時生效。我們不會預測什麼時候會發生。

As we've said before, if the rule is implemented in its current form, it will have a significant impact on our revenue. But we also believe that the rule will have an impact on the marketplace, including competition, pricing, customer behavior, volumes, credit.

正如我們之前所說，如果該規則以目前的形式實施，將對我們的收入產生重大影響。但我們也相信該規則將對市場產生影響，包括競爭、定價、客戶行為、數量、信用。

The reality is that we have spent decades painstakingly building a customer first franchise with the fewest fees in the industry and extremely simple products. We believe that we've been rewarded for these choices with better growth, better attrition and better credit selection.

現實情況是，我們花了幾十年的時間，以業內最低的費用和極其簡單的產品，精心打造了客戶至上的特許經營權。我們相信，我們的這些選擇帶來了更好的成長、更好的人員流失和更好的信貸選擇。

Ultimately, we will work backwards from what preserves our customer franchise our customer loyalty and credit resilience if the rule does go into effect. Relative to anything that we've done so far, we really -- the only thing we've done is we did defer a few investments in anticipation of this rule being implemented. If the ruling never happens, we will likely go ahead and make these investments over time. Thank you, Jeff.

最終，如果該規則確實生效，我們將從保護我們的客戶特許權、客戶忠誠度和信用彈性的角度進行倒退。相對於我們迄今為止所做的任何事情，我們確實 - 我們所做的唯一一件事是，我們確實推遲了一些投資，以預期該規則的實施。如果裁決從未發生，我們可能會隨著時間的推移繼續進行這些投資。謝謝你，傑夫。

Well, that concludes our Q&A session for the evening. Thank you for joining us on this conference call today and for your continuing interest in Capital One. Everybody, have a great night.

好了，今晚的問答環節就到此結束了。感謝您今天參加我們的電話會議，並感謝您對第一資本的持續關注。祝大家有個美好的夜晚。

Thank you. This concludes today's conference call. Thank you for participating. You may now disconnect.

謝謝。今天的電話會議到此結束。感謝您的參與。您現在可以斷開連線。