CNO Financial Group Inc (CNO) 2024 Q3 法說會逐字稿

Good morning. Thank you for attending today's CNO Financial Group third-quarter 2024 earnings call. My name is Regan, and I'll be your moderator today. (Operator Instructions) I would now like to pass the conference over to our host, Adam Auvil, with CNO. Adam, you may now proceed.

早安.感謝您參加今天的 CNO 金融集團 2024 年第三季財報電話會議。我叫雷根，今天我將擔任你們的主持人。（操作員指示）我現在想將會議轉交給我們的主持人 Adam Auvil 和 CNO。亞當，你現在可以繼續了。

Good morning, and thank you for joining us on CNO Financial Group's third-quarter 2024 earnings conference call. Today's presentation will include remarks from Gary Bhojwani, Chief Executive Officer; and Paul McDonough, Chief Financial Officer. Following the presentation, we will also have other business leaders available for the question-and-answer period. During this conference call, we will be referring to information contained in yesterday's press release.

早上好，感謝您參加 CNO 金融集團 2024 年第三季財報電話會議。今天的演講將包括執行長加里·博瓦尼 (Gary Bhojwani) 的演講；和財務長保羅·麥克唐納。演講結束後，我們也將邀請其他商界領袖參與問答環節。在本次電話會議中，我們將參考昨天新聞稿中包含的資訊。

You could obtain the release by visiting the media section of our website at cnoinc.com. This morning's presentation is also available in the Investors section of our website and was filed in a Form 8-K yesterday. Let me remind you that any forward-looking statements we make today are subject to a number of factors, which may cause actual results to be materially different than those contemplated by the forward-looking statements. Today's presentation contains a number of non-GAAP measures, which should not be considered as substitutes for the most directly comparable GAAP measures.

您可以透過造訪我們網站 cnoinc.com 的媒體部分來取得該新聞稿。今天早上的簡報也可以在我們網站的投資者部分找到，並在昨天以 8-K 表格形式提交。讓我提醒您，我們今天所做的任何前瞻性陳述都受到許多因素的影響，這些因素可能導致實際結果與前瞻性陳述預期的結果有重大差異。今天的演示包含許多非公認會計準則衡量標準，不應將其視為最直接可比較的公認會計準則衡量標準的替代品。

You'll find a reconciliation of the non-GAAP measures to the corresponding GAAP measures in the appendix. Throughout the presentation, we'll be making performance comparisons, and unless otherwise specified, any comparisons where refer to changes between third quarter 2024 and third quarter 2023. And with that, I'll turn the call over to Gary.

您將在附錄中找到非 GAAP 衡量標準與對應 GAAP 衡量標準的調整表。在整個演示過程中，我們將進行效能比較，除非另有說明，否則任何比較均指 2024 年第三季與 2023 年第三季之間的變化。然後，我會將電話轉給加里。

Thanks, Adam. Good morning, everyone, and thank you for joining us. CNO delivered another excellent quarter. Operating earnings per diluted share were $1.11, up 26% and $0.94 or up 27%, excluding significant items. Our results were broad-based across operating earnings, production, investment results and capital.

謝謝，亞當。大家早安，感謝您加入我們。CNO 又交付了出色的季度業績。不計重要項目，攤薄後每股營業收益為 1.11 美元，成長 26%；稀釋後每股營運收益為 0.94 美元，成長 27%。我們的業績在營業收入、生產、投資績效和資本方面都有廣泛的基礎。

Our diverse and integrated distribution model and broad product portfolio differentiate us in the marketplace. They enable our momentum in baseline of consistent and repeatable results. CNO posted our ninth consecutive quarter of strong sales momentum and our seventh consecutive quarter of growth in producing agent count. Total new annualized premium was up 1% across the enterprise.

我們多樣化、一體化的分銷模式和廣泛的產品組合使我們在市場上脫穎而出。它們使我們能夠在一致且可重複的結果基準上保持動力。CNO 公佈了連續第九個季度強勁的銷售勢頭，以及生產代理商數量連續第七個季度的增長。整個企業新增年化保費總額增加了 1%。

Excluding direct-to-consumer, total NAP was up 7%. I'll cover the factors impacting the D2C business later in my remarks. Green shoots from our strong sales growth are translating into earnings growth, establishing a solid foundation for future results. Earnings continue to benefit from favorable insurance product margin and strong investment results, reflecting growth in the business and expansion of the portfolio book yield.

不包括直接面向消費者的，NAP 總額成長了 7%。我將在稍後的發言中介紹影響 D2C 業務的因素。我們強勁的銷售成長所帶來的萌芽正在轉化為獲利成長，為未來的業績奠定了堅實的基礎。獲利持續受益於有利的保險產品利潤率和強勁的投資業績，反映出業務的成長和投資組合帳面收益率的擴大。

Our new money rate exceeded 6% for a seventh consecutive quarter. Capital and liquidity remain well above target levels after returning $107 million to shareholders. Book value per diluted share, excluding AOCI, was $35.84, up 6%. Each component of our business continues to deliver strong performance as demonstrated by sales momentum in both consumer and worksite, a growing distribution force, solid and sustainable earnings, our excellent capital position, our strong free cash flow generation and raising full year guidance for earnings and cash flow.

我們的新貨幣利率連續第七個季度超過 6%。在向股東返還 1.07 億美元後，資本和流動性仍遠高於目標水準。不包括 AOCI 的每股攤薄帳面價值為 35.84 美元，成長 6%。我們業務的每個組成部分都繼續提供強勁的業績，這體現在消費者和工作場所的銷售勢頭、不斷增長的分銷力量、穩定和可持續的盈利、我們卓越的資本狀況、我們強勁的自由現金流生成以及提高全年盈利和盈利指導方面。

As we advance our growth strategy, we continue to optimize the balance between production, profitability and capital management. Turning to Slide 5, our growth scorecard focuses on three key drivers of our performance: production, distribution and investments in capital. We are pleased that all of our growth scorecard metrics are up once again. I'll discuss each division in the next few slides; Paul will cover investments in capital in more detail during his remarks.

在推動成長策略的同時，我們不斷優化生產、獲利能力和資本管理之間的平衡。轉向投影片 5，我們的成長記分卡重點在於績效的三個關鍵驅動因素：生產、分銷和資本投資。我們很高興我們所有的成長記分卡指標再次上升。我將在接下來的幾張投影片中討論每個部門；保羅將在演講中更詳細地討論資本投資。

Beginning with the Consumer Division on slide 6, we delivered our eighth consecutive quarter of sales momentum. Solid execution and sustainable sales growth remain the hallmark of the Consumer Division's strong performance and in large part, are a result of our broad product portfolio. Our middle market consumers continue to embrace our differentiated capabilities that marry a virtual connection with our established in-person agent force to complete the critical last mile of sales and service delivery. Total NAP was up 1% for the quarter. NAP from field sales was up 9%.

從投影片 6 上的消費者部門開始，我們連續第八個季度實現了銷售動能。紮實的​​執行力和可持續的銷售成長仍然是消費者部門強勁業績的標誌，並且在很大程度上是我們廣泛的產品組合的結果。我們的中端市場消費者繼續接受我們的差異化能力，將虛擬連接與我們現有的面對面代理團隊相結合，以完成關鍵的最後一英里銷售和服務交付。本季度 NAP 總額成長 1%。現場銷售的 NAP 成長了 9%。

The Health NAP was up 11%, led by strong results from new and enhanced products. Our Medicare portfolio continues to deliver strong sales growth. Medicare Supplement NAP was up 15%, and Medicare Advantage policies sold were up 26%. As a reminder, Medicare Advantage sales are not reflected in NAP.

在新產品和增強型產品的強勁業績帶動下，健康 NAP 上漲 11%。我們的醫療保險產品組合持續帶來強勁的銷售成長。Medicare Supplement NAP 成長了 15%，Medicare Advantage 保單銷量成長了 26%。提醒一下，Medicare Advantage 銷售額不反映在 NAP 中。

By offering both Medicare Supplement and Medicare Advantage products, we provide more coverage options for customers. The balance and diversification of our Medicare portfolio is an important part of how we serve the middle-income market. We are in the midst of Medicare annual enrollment period, which began on October 15 and runs through December 7. We are off to yet another strong start.

透過提供 Medicare Supplement 和 Medicare Advantage 產品，我們為客戶提供了更多承保選擇。我們的醫療保險投資組合的平衡和多元化是我們服務中等收入市場的重要組成部分。我們正處於 Medicare 年度投保期，該期從 10 月 15 日開始，一直持續到 12 月 7 日。我們又迎來了一個強勁的開端。

Our thousands of dedicated field agents across the country are uniquely positioned to help customers make an informed decision about how they receive their benefits. This season, we have more than 3,400 agents certified to sell these plans, up 10% over last year. Our agents can enroll consumers in Medicare Advantage and Medicare Prescription Drug plans from 21 different plan sponsors, an increase of 7 carriers over last year. For the third consecutive year, we also expanded the number of offices participating in our Medicare Advantage inbound referral program.

我們遍布全國的數千名專業現場代理商擁有獨特的優勢，可以幫助客戶就如何獲得福利做出明智的決定。本季度，我們有超過 3,400 名經過認證的代理商可以銷售這些計劃，比去年增加了 10%。我們的代理商可以讓消費者參加 21 個不同計劃贊助商的 Medicare Advantage 和 Medicare 處方藥計劃，比去年增加了 7 個承運商。我們也連續第三年擴大了參與 Medicare Advantage 入境推薦計畫的辦事處數量。

As part of this program, customers who contact us by phone or online can be connected in real time to an agent in their local office who can assist them. Long-term Care NAP was up 31% on the strength of our long-term care fundamental plus product. This quarter represents the fifth consecutive quarter of double-digit growth for this product, reflecting the strong consumer demand for practical long-term care solutions. As a reminder, our LTC products are designed for the middle market consumer, 99% of the policy sold had benefit periods of two years or less and more than 90% have benefit periods of one year or less.

作為該計劃的一部分，透過電話或線上聯繫我們的客戶可以即時連接到當地辦事處的代理，為他們提供協助。由於我們的長期照護基礎加產品，長期照護 NAP 上漲了 31%。本季代表該產品連續第五個季度實現兩位數成長，反映出消費者對實用長期照護解決方案的強勁需求。需要提醒的是，我們的LTC產品是為中端市場消費者設計的，所售保單中99%的受益期為兩年或更短，超過90%的受益期為一年或更短。

These plans cover essential costs for one to two years and offer a balanced affordable approach to funding care. Life production was down in the quarter, driven by lower spend on direct-to-consumer marketing. As we shared last quarter, we managed our D2C business based on advertising efficiencies. Consistent with last quarter, we reduced our television marketing spend in response to higher lead costs.

這些計劃涵蓋一到兩年的基本費用，並提供平衡且負擔得起的護理資金資助方法。由於直接面向消費者的行銷支出減少，該季度的壽險產量有所下降。正如我們上季度分享的那樣，我們根據廣告效率來管理 D2C 業務。與上季一致，我們減少了電視行銷支出，以應對更高的領先成本。

This stems from competition for television media space, which tends to spike during presidential election cycles. We continue to grow non-television direct response channels such as web and digital, which now accounts for over 30% of sales generated by D2C leads. Annuity collected premiums posted record results in the quarter, up 25%. Account values were up 6%.

這源自於對電視媒體空間的競爭，而這種競爭往往會在總統選舉週期中加劇。我們持續發展網路和數位等非電視直接回應管道，目前這些管道佔 D2C 潛在客戶產生的銷售額的 30% 以上。年金收取保費在本季度創下了創紀錄的業績，增長了 25%。帳戶價值成長了 6%。

Our strong annuity performance is led by number of policies sold, up 9%, higher premium per policy, up 14%. Demand for these products continues to benefit from favorable demographic tailwinds and the growing need from clients to protect against out living their retirement savings. Stability in our block benefits from our captive distribution and the meaningful long-term relationships that our agents established with their clients. This quarter reflects our seventh consecutive quarter of brokerage and advisory growth.

我們強勁的年金業績得益於已售保單數量增長 9%，每份保單保費上漲 14%。對這些產品的需求繼續受益於有利的人口趨勢以及客戶日益增長的防止耗盡退休儲蓄的需求。我們區塊的穩定性得益於我們的專屬分銷以及我們的代理商與其客戶建立的有意義的長期關係。本季反映出我們的經紀和諮詢業務連續第七個季度成長。

Client assets in brokerage and advisory were up 35% for the quarter to a record $3.9 billion; new accounts were up 11%. When combined with our annuity account values, our clients now entrust us with more than $16 billion of assets, up 12%. Recruiting continues to be favorable and reflects our ninth consecutive quarter of year-over-year gains. Producing agent count was up 5%, our seventh consecutive quarter of growth.

本季經紀和諮詢領域的客戶資產成長了 35%，達到創紀錄的 39 億美元；新帳戶成長了 11%。與我們的年金帳戶價值相結合，我們的客戶現在委託我們的資產超過 160 億美元，成長了 12%。招聘情況持續良好，反映出我們連續第九個季度實現同比增長。製作代理商數量增加了 5%，這是我們連續第七個季度成長。

Next, slide 7 and our Worksite Division performance. We delivered a record third quarter performance for insurance sales with NAP up 4%. This represents our tenth consecutive quarter of growth. The sales were up 108% of small base.

接下來是投影片 7 和我們工地部門的表現。我們第三季的保險銷售業績創歷史新高，NAP 成長 4%。這代表我們連續第十個季度實現成長。小基數銷售額成長108%。

As a reminder, this metric reflects the annual contract value of benefit services sold in the quarter and is a leading indicator of fee revenue growth. Our benefit services strategy remains a priority for 2024 and beyond. Recruiting was up 7% for the quarter. Producing agent count was up 17%, our tenth consecutive quarter of growth.

提醒一下，該指標反映了本季銷售的福利服務的年度合約價值，是費用收入成長的領先指標。我們的福利服務策略仍然是 2024 年及以後的優先事項。本季招聘人數增加了 7%。製作代理商數量增加了 17%，這是我們連續第十個季度成長。

First year producing agent count was up 16%, agent retention remains strong across all cohorts. New products and strategic growth initiatives are key drivers of our worksite NAP growth. I'll comment briefly on three programs. First, new products continue to perform well. In the third quarter, we introduced a new hospital indemnity insurance product, which helps provide supplemental coverage for hospital stays.

第一年生產的代理人數增加了 16%，所有群體的代理保留率仍然很高。新產品和策略成長計劃是我們現場 NAP 成長的關鍵驅動力。我將簡要評論三個程序。一是新產品持續表現良好。第三季度，我們推出了新的住院賠償保險產品，為住院病患提供補充保障。

Sales of this product are up 66% in the first few months. Our critical illness product, which was introduced last year, was up 9%. Second, our geographic expansion initiative accounted for 11% of total worksite NAP growth in the quarter. This initiative targets areas where we've identified strategic opportunities to grow our market share and footprint. This is the fourth consecutive quarter of growth generated by this program, and we're bullish on the results that these new markets can deliver.

該產品的銷量在前幾個月增長了 66%。我們去年推出的重疾產品上漲了 9%。其次，我們的地域擴張計畫佔本季工作場所 NAP 總成長的 11%。該計劃針對的是我們已確定擴大市場份額和足跡的戰略機會的領域。這是該計劃連續第四個季度實現成長，我們看好這些新市場所能帶來的結果。

Lastly, in 2023, we launched an initiative to help agents cultivate and acquire new employer groups for insurance sales. NAP from new group clients was up 164% and we continue to experience solid momentum from this program. And with that, I'll turn it over to Paul.

最後，2023年，我們推出了一項計劃，幫助代理商培育和取得新的保險銷售雇主群體。新集團客戶的 NAP 成長了 164%，我們繼續從該計劃中體驗到強勁的勢頭。有了這個，我會把它交給保羅。

Thank you, Gary, and good morning, everyone. Turning to the financial highlights on slide 8, we had another strong quarter across both operating earnings and capital, reflecting favorable trends in insurance product margins, investment income and free cash flow and continued expense and capital discipline. The expense ratio was 18.8% in the quarter and 19.2% on a trailing 12-month basis. We deployed $90 million at excess capital on share repurchases in the quarter, accelerating our capital return in the wake of the debt issuance back in May.

謝謝你，加里，大家早安。轉向幻燈片 8 中的財務亮點，我們在營業收入和資本方面又經歷了一個強勁的季度，反映出保險產品利潤率、投資收入和自由現金流以及持續的支出和資本紀律方面的有利趨勢。本季費用率為 18.8%，過去 12 個月為 19.2%。本季我們部署了 9,000 萬美元的超額資本用於股票回購，加快了 5 月債券發行後的資本回報。

This contributed to a 7% reduction in weighted average diluted shares outstanding year-over-year. On a trailing 12-month basis, operating return on equity was 11.7% as reported and 10.5% excluding significant items. We remain focused on continuing to improve our run rate return on equity over time. I'll briefly touch on two recent actions that will contribute to improved profitability.

這導致加權平均稀釋後流通股年減 7%。根據報告，過去 12 個月的營運股本回報率為 11.7%，不包括重要項目的營運股​​本回報率為 10.5%。隨著時間的推移，我們仍然專注於繼續提高我們的股本回報率。我將簡要介紹最近兩項有助於提高獲利能力的行動。

First, we took steps in the third quarter to improve how we operate and our efficiency within the organization, the actions focused on repositioning certain back office roles for capabilities we need for the future, removing certain management layers and reducing costs through outsourcing. The net effect was a 3% reduction in the workforce. Severance and outsourcing transition costs associated with these actions totaled $8.3 million pretax and were reported as nonoperating income in the quarter. These changes will improve run rate return on equity and allow us to advance our growth road map, including modernizing our technology and service capabilities.

首先，我們在第三季採取了措施來改善我們的營運方式和組織內的效率，這些行動的重點是重新定位某些後台角色以適應我們未來所需的能力，消除某些管理層並透過外包降低成本。淨效應是勞動力減少了 3%。與這些行動相關的遣散費和外包過渡成本總計稅前 830 萬美元，並在本季度報告為營業外收入。這些變化將提高股本回報率，並使我們能夠推進我們的成長路線圖，包括實現我們的技術和服務能力的現代化。

Second, we have terminated a reinsurance agreement in which we had been seeding 25% of our long-term care new business. Effective October 1 of this year, we will now retain 100% of long-term care new business. To be clear, this does not impact the in-force that we had previously ceded, but we're pleased to be keeping all of the new business going forward, given the favorable and stable economics of the business. Turning to slide 9, total insurance product margin was very strong in the quarter with mostly puts and some takes across products.

其次，我們終止了一項再保險協議，根據該協議，我們已經投放了 25% 的長期照護新業務。自今年 10 月 1 日起，我們將保留 100% 的長期照護新業務。需要明確的是，這不會影響我們先前放棄的有效業務，但考慮到該業務有利且穩定的經濟狀況，我們很高興繼續保留所有新業務。轉向投影片 9，本季保險產品總利潤率非常強勁，其中大部分是看跌期權，還有一些看跌期權產品。

Fixed indexed annuity margins were impacted by higher amortization due to our change in assumption to reflect higher surrenders as well as some modest spread compression. Notwithstanding these impacts, our FIAs continue to generate returns consistent with our target return for the business. For a second consecutive quarter, other annuity margins benefited from reserve releases due to higher mortality on larger closed block policies. We do not expect this favorable impact to repeat.

由於我們改變假設以反映較高的退保率以及適度的利差壓縮，固定指數年金利潤率受到較高攤銷的影響。儘管有這些影響，我們的 FIA 仍繼續產生與我們的業務目標回報一致的回報。由於大型封閉式集體保單的死亡率較高，其他年金利潤率則連續第二季受益於準備金釋放。我們預計這種有利影響不會重複。

Supplemental Health and long-term care margins both benefited from growth in the block and favorable morbidity. Traditional Life margins benefited from lower advertising expense in the quarter. Finally, our annual actuarial review resulted in a $27.3 million favorable impact to operating income. This was driven by favorable mortality and persistency assumption updates in our fixed indexed annuity business, partially offset by an unfavorable morbidity assumption within Medicare Supplement.

補充健康和長期照護利潤均受益於街區的成長和有利的發病率。傳統人壽的利潤率受惠於本季廣告費用的下降。最後，我們的年度精算審查對營業收入產生了 2730 萬美元的有利影響。這是由我們固定指數年金業務中有利的死亡率和持久性假設更新所推動的，部分被醫療保險補充中不利的發病率假設所抵消。

The remaining results were smaller and mostly offset across the other product lines. We're calling this out as a significant item in the quarter and presenting the margin on this slide ex significant items. Turning to Slide 10, net investment income results remained strong for another quarter. The new money rate was 6.5%, the seventh consecutive quarter above 6%.

其餘的結果較小，且大部分被其他產品線抵消。我們將其稱為本季的一個重要項目，並在這張投影片上展示除重要項目外的利潤。轉向投影片 10，淨投資收益結果在另一個季度保持強勁。新貨幣利率為6.5%，連續第七個季度高於6%。

The average yield on allocated investments was 4.81%, up 12 basis points year-over-year. The increase in yield along with growth in the business drove a 5% increase in net investment income allocated to products for the quarter. Investment income not allocated to products was up 18%, with alternative investment results slightly below expectations but improved from the comparable quarter. We completed a $400 million five-year FABN offering in the quarter.

配置投資平均報酬率為4.81%，較去年同期上升12個基點。收益率的提高以及業務的成長推動本季分配給產品的淨投資收益成長了 5%。未分配至產品的投資收益成長 18%，另類投資績效略低於預期，但較上一季改善。我們在本季完成了 4 億美元的五年期 FABN 發行。

Total investment income was up 7% for both the quarter and year-to-date, demonstrating the strength of our investment portfolio. Our new investments in the quarter comprised approximately $600 million of assets, with an average rating of single A and an average duration of just under six years. Our new investments are summarized in more detail on Slides 20 and 21 of the presentation. Turning to Slide 11, the market value of invested assets grew 21% in the quarter, with roughly one-third of the growth a result of recent FABN and debt issuances and two-third due to market appreciation on the investment portfolio and growth in the business.

本季和年初至今的總投資收益均成長了 7%，證明了我們投資組合的實力。我們本季的新投資包括約 6 億美元的資產，平均評級為 A 級，平均期限略低於六年。我們的新投資在簡報的投影片 20 和 21 中有更詳細的總結。轉向幻燈片11，本季投資資產的市值增長了21%，其中約三分之一的增長歸因於最近的FABN 和債務發行，三分之二的增長歸因於投資組合的市場升值和投資組合的成長。

Approximately 97% of our fixed maturity portfolio at quarter end was investment-grade rated with an average rating of single A, reflecting our up and quality bias over the last several years. Our commercial real estate portfolio continues to perform within expectations, reflecting conservative underwriting and proactive management. We have again included some summary metrics on Slides 22 and 23 of the presentation. Turning to Slide 12. Our capital position remains strong.

截至季末，我們約 97% 的固定期限投資組合獲得投資等級評級，平均評級為 A，反映了我們過去幾年的向上和品質偏向。我們的商業房地產投資組合繼續表現在預期之內，反映出保守的核保和積極的管理。我們再次在簡報的投影片 22 和 23 中包含了一些摘要指標。轉到投影片 12。我們的資本狀況依然強勁。

At quarter end, our consolidated risk-based capital ratio was 388%. Available Holdco liquidity was $453 million, well above our target minimum, reflecting the debt issuance completed in May as well as continued strong free cash flow to the Holdco. Leverage at quarter end was 32.5% as reported, adjusting for the senior notes that will be paid off at maturity in May of next year, leverage at quarter end was 26.0%. With the incremental debt issued in May, leverage has moved just inside our target range of between 25% and 28%.

截至季末，我們的綜合風險資本率為 388%。控股公司的可用流動性為 4.53 億美元，遠高於我們的最低目標，反映了 5 月完成的債務發行以及控股公司持續強勁的自由現金流。據報告，季末槓桿率為 32.5%，對將於明年 5 月到期的優先票據進行調整後，季末槓桿率為 26.0%。隨著 5 月增量債務的發行，槓桿率已進入我們 25% 至 28% 的目標範圍內。

Turning to Slide 13 and our '24 guidance, we are raising and narrowing guidance on operating earnings per share to between $3.50 and $3.60 for the full year, excluding significant items, reflecting our strong third quarter results. Consistent with guidance assumptions, this includes an expectation that alternative investments generate a return in line with the long-term run rate assumption of between 9% and 10% for the fourth quarter. At the midpoint, our guidance is now 11% above the initial range for the year, reflecting the strong earnings results we've reported year-to-date. We are raising and narrowing guidance for excess cash flow to the holding company to a range of between $250 million and $275 million.

轉向幻燈片 13 和我們的 24 年指引，我們將全年每股營業利潤指引提高並縮小至 3.50 美元至 3.60 美元（不包括重要項目），這反映了我們強勁的第三季業績。與指導假設一致，這包括另類投資產生的回報與第四季度 9% 至 10% 的長期運行率假設一致的預期。在中點，我們的指導現在比今年最初的範圍高出 11%，反映了我們今年迄今報告的強勁獲利結果。我們正在將流向控股公司的超額現金流指引提高至 2.5 億至 2.75 億美元之間。

The midpoint of the new range is 50% higher than the midpoint of the original range for the year, reflecting solid earnings year-to-date, together with capital consumption in our investment portfolio, consistent with the high end of the original free cash flow range, which corresponds to no material increase in the risk profile of the investment portfolio throughout the year. We are maintaining the expense ratio range of between 19.0% and 19.2%. We will continue to manage to a consolidated RBC ratio of 375% in our US-based insurance companies and minimum Holdco liquidity of $150 million over the long term, although we expect to end 2024 well above those target levels.

新範圍的中點比當年原始範圍的中點高出 50%，反映了年初至今的穩健收益以及我們投資組合中的資本消耗，與原始自由現金流的高端一致範圍，這對應於全年投資組合的風險狀況沒有實質增加。我們將費用比率維持在 19.0% 至 19.2% 之間。長期來看，我們將繼續將美國保險公司的綜合 RBC 比率控制在 375%，控股公司流動性最低控制在 1.5 億美元，不過我們預計 2024 年底將遠高於這些目標水準。

There's no change to our target leverage of 25% to 28%. And with that, I'll turn it back to Gary.

我們的目標槓桿率保持在 25% 至 28% 不變。說到這裡，我會把它轉回給加里。

Thanks, Paul. CNO delivered another excellent quarter. Our sustained sales growth is translating into earnings growth, establishing a solid foundation for future results. We have a unique and differentiated position to serve the middle-income market through our products, distribution and proven track record of execution. Our capital position, liquidity and free cash flow are strong, and we continue to deliver on our commitment to shareholder return. CNO enters the fourth quarter with considerable momentum, and we expect to end the year strong.

謝謝，保羅。CNO 又交付了出色的季度業績。我們持續的銷售成長正在轉化為獲利成長，為未來的業績奠定了堅實的基礎。我們擁有獨特且差異化的地位，可以透過我們的產品、分銷和良好的執行記錄來服務中等收入市場。我們的資本狀況、流動性和自由現金流強勁，我們將繼續履行對股東回報的承諾。CNO 以強勁的勢頭進入第四季度，我們預計今年將表現強勁。

Before we open it up for questions, as you know, next Tuesday, November 5, is election day. Voting is one of our most important civic rights. At CNO, we encourage our associates to take the time to vote. I extend that encouragement to everyone on the call as well. We thank you for your support and interest in CNO Financial Group. We will now open it up for questions. Operator?

如您所知，在我們開始提問之前，下週二，即 11 月 5 日，是選舉日。投票是我們最重要的公民權利之一。在 CNO，我們鼓勵員工花時間投票。我也向參加電話會議的每個人表達這種鼓勵。感謝您對 CNO 金融集團的支持與關注。我們現在將開放提問。操作員？

(Operator Instructions) John Barnidge, Piper Sandler.

（操作員說明）John Barnidge、Piper Sandler。

Can you maybe talk about that long-term care announcement, the reinsurance arrangement. And within that, maybe the opportunity to further utilize the Bermuda platform for other liabilities of the company.

您能否談談長期照護公告、再保險安排。其中，也許有機會進一步利用百慕達平台來承擔公司的其他負債。

I'll make just a general comment. Sorry. Just a general comment and then Paul can dive into the specifics. I think the biggest thing I'd like our shareholders to take away is we really like this business. We think we know what we're doing, it's performed well. And basically, we want to eat more of our own cooking. Paul can speak to some of the details on the numbers, but it's really a reflection of our belief in the business and the solid performance. Paul?

我僅作一般性評論。對不起。只是一般性評論，然後保羅可以深入探討具體細節。我認為我希望我們的股東帶走的最重要的事情是我們真的很喜歡這個業務。我們認為我們知道自己在做什麼，並且表現良好。基本上，我們想多吃自己做的菜。保羅可以談論一些數位細節，但這確實反映了我們對業務和穩健業績的信心。保羅？

Yes. So on the numbers, John, I think it's pretty straightforward. We're now keeping the 25% that we used to cede. And so that will flow through to earnings over time and on the margin should be one of the many things that we're doing and contemplating to improve our return on equity over time. And then with respect to Bermuda, we completed the first treaty in the fourth quarter of last year, where we ceded much of the in-force book and 100% of the new business, that's going well.

是的。約翰，關於數字，我認為這非常簡單。我們現在保留了之前放棄的 25%。因此，隨著時間的推移，這將轉化為收益，而邊際收益應該是我們正在做和考慮的眾多事情之一，以隨著時間的推移提高我們的股本回報率。然後就百慕達而言，我們在去年第四季完成了第一個條約，我們放棄了大部分有效帳簿和 100% 的新業務，進展順利。

We've been very focused on building out the infrastructure of our Bermuda company and establishing relationships on the island, including with the Bermuda Monetary Authority. That's also gone very well. We have a solid team in Bermuda now that's occupying our office there. So we are beginning to turn our attention to other things that we might see to the Bermuda company. That's a work in process and more on that in future periods.

我們一直非常注重建造百慕達公司的基礎設施並在島上建立關係，包括與百慕達金融管理局的關係。這也進展得很好。我們在百慕達擁有一支堅實的團隊，現在他們佔據了我們在那裡的辦公室。因此，我們開始將注意力轉向百慕達公司可能看到的其他事情。這是一項正在進行的工作，未來還會有更多相關工作。

Obviously, it's whatever we propose to seed is subject to regulatory approval. And so we'd be going through the normal approval process.

顯然，我們提議的任何種子都必須經過監管部門的批准。因此我們將經歷正常的審批流程。

And then the actions to improve the organizational structure, repositioning of back office, removing management leaders and reducing the cost through outsourcing. How do we think about that having an impact in improving the direct expense ratio prospectively?

然後是改善組織結構、重新定位後台、撤換管理領導以及透過外包降低成本等行動。我們如何看待這對未來提高直接費用率的影響？

So John, no change to the guidance that we provided for the full year and you kind of back into what that means for the fourth quarter. I don't want to get ahead of guidance for next year, but as we typically do on our February call, we'll provide guidance for the full year '25, including the expense ratio. Certainly, the actions that we've taken improve our run rate expenses and will contribute to, again, the efforts that we're taking across the value chain to improve the ROE.

約翰，我們為全年提供的指導沒有變化，您又回到了這對第四季度意味著什麼。我不想提前公佈明年的指導，但正如我們在 2 月的電話會議上通常所做的那樣，我們將提供 25 年全年的指導，包括費用比率。當然，我們採取的行動改善了我們的營運費用，並將再次有助於我們在整個價值鏈上為提高股本回報率所做的努力。

Ryan Krueger, KBW.

瑞安·克魯格，KBW。

I had a question on free cash flow. When you think about the $250 million to $270 million this year, I guess, to what extent do you view that as a sustainable run rate? Or I guess, can you help us understand how much favorability this year maybe impacting that number?

我有一個關於自由現金流的問題。當你想到今年 2.5 億至 2.7 億美元時，我想，你在多大程度上認為這是一個可持續的運行率？或者我想，你能幫助我們了解今年的好感度可能會影響這個數字嗎？

Ryan, it's Paul. As you know, it's hard to say because there are impacts related to capital efficiency in terms of how we're structured, their impacts at the holding company level related to the debt that we issued in May. But what I would emphasize is that the underlying dynamics of the business generate a very healthy level of free cash flow. I think that's been clearly demonstrated over time, including in the last nine months. So without putting a specific number on it, I think the takeaway is that the business generates healthy levels of free cash flow, which will, in the first instance, well, it's a function of what the business generates.

瑞安，是保羅。如您所知，這很難說，因為就我們的結構而言，存在與資本效率相關的影響，它們對控股公司層面的影響與我們 5 月發行的債務有關。但我要強調的是，業務的潛在動力產生了非常健康的自由現金流水準。我認為隨著時間的推移，包括過去九個月，這一點已經得到了清楚的證明。因此，在沒有給出具體數字的情況下，我認為重點是企業產生健康水平的自由現金流，這首先是企業產生的功能的函數。

Over time, that may be reduced if we're putting more capital to work to grow the franchise, which would certainly be a good thing. So I know I'm not answering your question directly because there are simply too many moving parts. Again, in February, when we provide outlook for '25 we'll provide a bit more insight into that in terms of our outlook for the '25 period.

隨著時間的推移，如果我們投入更多資金來發展特許經營權，這種情況可能會減少，這肯定是一件好事。所以我知道我不會直接回答你的問題，因為有太多的活動部件。同樣，在 2 月份，當我們提供 '25 的展望時，我們將在 '25 期間的展望方面提供更多的見解。

Understood. And then just a quick one. With the Fed cutting rates, 50 basis points, in September, I just wanted to make sure I understood if you had much short-term rate sensitivity we should consider for the fourth quarter or if we shouldn't expect much impact from that?

明白了。然後是快速的。隨著聯準會在 9 月降息 50 個基點，我只是想確保我了解我們是否應該在第四季度考慮對短期利率的敏感性，或者我們是否不應期望由此產生太大影響？

So Ryan, your question is our sensitivity to changes in rates broadly? Is that the question?

瑞安，你的問題是我們對利率變化的敏感度？這是問題嗎？

Really just the short-term rates. You do have within, for example, like unallocated NII with some of the spread lending you do there. Just wanted to see if there's really much impact to short-term rates on a net basis or if it's pretty neutral.

實際上只是短期利率。例如，您確實擁有未分配的 NII 以及您在那裡進行的一些利差貸款。只是想看看對短期利率的淨影響是否真的很大，或者是否相當中性。

Got it.

知道了。

Yes, happy to. Ryan, for the most part, are the assets we hold that our floating rate are in a couple of places and largely matched off against also floating rate liabilities. So there's a substantially offsetting impact as the short end of the curve moves. We do have some floating rate assets that I'll use the term in the general account. For the most part, those are very high in credit quality, sustain their market value. And we have the option and have exercised it from time to time to reallocate those out further out the curve as opportunities develop there and then in the curve steepens.

是的，很高興。瑞安在很大程度上是我們持有的資產，我們的浮動利率處於幾個位置，並且很大程度上與浮動利率負債相匹配。因此，隨著曲線短端的移動，會產生顯著的抵消影響。我們確實有一些浮動利率資產，我將在普通帳戶中使用該術語。大多數情況下，這些信用品質非常高，可以維持其市場價值。我們有選擇權，並且時不時地行使它，隨著機會的出現，然後曲線變得陡峭，將這些資源重新分配到曲線之外。

So you won't see a tremendous amount or really a noticeable amount of impact in our income statement off of the 50 basis points, and you probably wouldn't see if you get another 50 going into the second through the remainder of the year, you probably wouldn't see any significant impact from that either.

因此，你不會在我們的損益表中看到50 個基點的巨大影響或真正明顯的影響，並且你可能不會看到如果你在今年剩餘的時間裡進入第二個基點，你可能不會看到另外50 個基點，您可能也不會看到任何重大影響。

Wilma Burdis, Raymond James.

威爾瑪·布爾迪斯，雷蒙德·詹姆斯。

Could you give us a little bit of a deep dive on where CNO stands on cutting expenses?

您能否深入探討一下 CNO 在削減開支方面的立場？

Well, Wilma, that's something that we're always focused on cutting expenses. I've been here for 5.5 years. It's been a very significant focus of every annual planning process that we've gone through. The recent action that we took that I described in my prepared remarks are an example of that. So the overall goal is to be as efficient as we possibly can as an organization so that we free up as much as possible to invest in the growth of the business. So that's how I would describe it at a high level.

嗯，威爾瑪，這是我們一直致力於削減開支的事情。我在這裡已經 5.5 年了。這是我們經歷過的每個年度規劃流程的一個非常重要的焦點。我在準備好的發言中描述的我們最近採取的行動就是一個例子。因此，總體目標是作為一個組織盡可能提高效率，以便我們能夠騰出盡可能多的時間來投資於業務成長。這就是我在高層次上描述它的方式。

Okay. And then not to ask for guidance, but could you just talk a little bit about the market opportunity for sales over the next, I guess, kind of near term and also maybe next few years. Just looking for some color on the demographics, what you're seeing in the economic environment right now in the areas of potential growth?

好的。然後不是尋求指導，但您能否談談未來的銷售市場機會，我想是近期，也可能是未來幾年。只是想了解人口統計數據，目前在經濟環境中看到的潛在成長領域是什麼？

Wilma, this is Gary. Thanks for the question. The outline I can give you is we remain very bullish. When we look at the primary macroeconomic and demographic factors, virtually all of them are tailwinds. We still have people retiring at a significant level, roughly 11,000 a day. That's not going to change.

威瑪，這是加里。謝謝你的提問。我可以給你的概述是我們仍然非常樂觀。當我們審視主要的宏觀經濟和人口因素時，幾乎所有這些因素都是有利因素。我們仍有大量人員退休，每天約有 11,000 人。這不會改變。

If I remember the data right, it's still 5 to 8 years before you see that even begin to slow. So that's very significant. Second, there is, to my way of thinking, no other government type of solutions to the problem these retirees or prospective retirees are facing in terms of income for retirement. The few that have pensions, those aren't growing or getting bigger or getting richer. And if anything, government programs, we've all seen the work on the deficits and so on.

如果我沒記錯的話，你還需要 5 到 8 年才能看到這速度開始放緩。所以這非常重要。其次，在我看來，政府沒有其他類型的解決方案來解決這些退休人員或未來退休人員在退休收入方面面臨的問題。少數擁有退休金的人並沒有成長、變大或變富。如果有的話，那就是政府計劃，我們都看到了赤字方面的工作等等。

I don't know if these two particular candidates are going to do anything about it. But at some point, somebody is going to have to do something about it, which means that benefit levels certainly aren't going to go up and they probably will have to go down, whether that's means testing or whatever. But in any event, there's not a private solution or a public solution that goes across and satisfy these issues. And health care costs continue to go up.

我不知道這兩位候選人是否會對此採取行動。但在某些時候，有人將不得不對此採取一些措施，這意味著福利水準肯定不會上升，而且可能不得不下降，無論是經濟狀況測試還是其他什麼。但無論如何，沒有一個私人解決方案或公共解決方案可以跨越並滿足這些問題。醫療保健費用持續上漲。

Even if health care costs moderate and stop going up by 6% or 7% a year, even then, even if they just get down to a 2% or 3% number, that's still a significant issue in the absence of government solution. So when we look at health care costs, when we look at life spans, when we look at number of prospective retirees, when we look at the assets of government solutions, all of those provide a very significant bullish case. The final comment I would make, remember, we focus exclusively on the middle market. There are plenty of deep focusing on the more affluent consumers, and that's wonderful for us.

即使醫療保健費用適中並且不再以每年 6% 或 7% 的速度上漲，即使只是下降到 2% 或 3%，在政府缺乏解決方案的情況下，這仍然是一個重大問題。因此，當我們考慮醫療保健成本時，當我們考慮壽命時，當我們考慮未來退休人員的數量時，當我們考慮政府解決方案的資產時，所有這些都提供了非常重要的看漲理由。我要說的最後一點是，請記住，我們只專注於中間市場。有很多深入關注更富裕的消費者，這對我們來說很棒。

But we don't see any major new entrants coming into this space. And frankly, if we had to start this business from scratch today focusing on middle income America, we couldn't afford to do it. It's only because we've got this historical critical math that we're able to make the benefit ratios and the cost ratios and so on work. This is a very tough place to come into, so that forms a bit of a natural moat.

但我們沒有看到任何主要的新進入者進入這個領域。坦白說，如果我們今天必須從頭開始這項業務，專注於美國的中等收入，我們負擔不起。只是因為我們有了這個歷史關鍵數學，我們才能夠讓效益比率和成本比率等發揮作用。這是一個非常難以進入的地方，因此形成了一條天然護城河。

So for all of those reasons, we remain very bullish on the prospects. And that doesn't mean that we're going to have everything be rosy all the time. Of course, there are challenges from time to time. But when we look at the big picture, the macro trends, we feel they're all in our favor.

因此，出於所有這些原因，我們仍然非常看好前景。這並不意味著我們會一直一切順利。當然，時不時也會遇到挑戰。但當我們綜觀全局、宏觀趨勢時，我們覺得它們都對我們有利。

Suneet Kamath, Jefferies.

蘇尼特·卡馬斯，杰弗里斯。

I guess just for Paul to start. I think you said your guidance for 2024 assumes fourth quarter VII is in line with your long-term target. As we've been going through these calls, it seems like the companies are suggesting it will still be under some pressure. Is that what you expect to happen? Or should we think about that as more of just a planning assumption?

我想只是保羅開始的。我認為您說過您對 2024 年的指導假設第四季度第七季度符合您的長期目標。當我們聽取這些電話時，這些公司似乎暗示它仍將面臨一些壓力。這是您期望發生的情況嗎？或者我們應該將其視為更多的規劃假設？

Yes. It's very much more of a planning convention, Suneet. I think if you asked Eric whether he thinks that's a reasonable expectation for the fourth quarter, I think you'd tell you that there's certainly downside risk. Because that's not the only thing that flows through NII not allocated. Over the last couple of quarters, there have been other things that have kind of picked up the slack. So in general, I think there's probably some downside risk there in the fourth quarter, but it's muted by other things that might go the other way.

是的。這更像是一次規劃會議，Suneet。我想如果你問艾瑞克他是否認為第四季的合理預期，我想你會告訴你肯定有下行風險。因為這並不是流經 NII 的唯一未分配的東西。在過去的幾個季度中，還有其他一些事情彌補了這一不足。因此，總的來說，我認為第四季度可能存在一些下行風險，但由於其他可能發生相反情況的事情而減弱了這種風險。

Okay. Got it. And then I guess on the ROE. I know we've talked about ROE improvement on these calls for the past several quarters. And you've highlighted multiple levers that you have to improve the ROE. But as we think about those levers in big buckets, would you say that most of them are focused on kind of improving the earnings or sort of the numerator of the calculation? Or are you also contemplating actions to optimize the denominator?

好的。知道了。然後我猜想是關於 ROE。我知道我們在過去幾個季度就這些呼籲討論了股本回報率的提高。您也強調了提高 ROE 的多個手段。但是，當我們考慮這些大桶中的槓桿時，您是否會說它們中的大多數都集中在提高收益或計算分子上？或者您也在考慮採取行動來優化分母？

And again, I don't know if you can give us sort of a split between the 2, but if you had to think about which one is more important, if you could provide some color on that, that would be helpful.

再說一遍，我不知道你是否可以給我們區分兩者，但如果你必須考慮哪一個更重要，如果你能對此提供一些說明，那會很有幫助。

Sure. Yes, I think it's fair to say most of the things are focused on the numerator, but not exclusively. There are things we can continue to do that will help move the needle on the denominator as well.

當然。是的，我認為可以公平地說，大多數事情都集中在分子上，但並非全部如此。我們可以繼續做一些事情，這也將有助於推動分母的發展。

And if I could just follow that up real quick. Just in terms of the earnings, again, another sort of drill-down question. Should we think about that more on the like the top line side or more on like the margin side? Just trying to figure out how we start to see this ROE continue to climb.

如果我能快速跟進就好了。就收益而言，這又是另一個深入研究的問題。我們應該多考慮頂線方面還是邊際方面？只是想弄清楚我們如何開始看到這個 ROE 繼續攀升。

It's really all of the above. There's no silver bullet. But the combination of continued top line sales growth helping to drive better operating leverage, thinking about the trade-off between risk and return inside the investment portfolio in the context of the current rate and spread environment, things we can do with the in-force book, things that we can do with pricing, things we can do to continue to manage expenses. It's really all of those things, which, in aggregate, we're confident will help us improve the ROE over time.

這確實是以上所有內容。沒有靈丹妙藥。但是，持續的營收成長有助於推動更好的營運槓桿，在當前利率和利差環境的背景下考慮投資組合內風險和回報之間的權衡，我們可以利用有效的書，我們可以在定價方面做的事情，我們可以做的事情來繼續管理費用。實際上，所有這些事情總的來說，我們相信它們將幫助我們隨著時間的推移提高 ROE。

Suneet, I'd like to add a little bit of context or detail to Paul's comments. First, I want to just make sure I remind everybody that from our standpoint, this has been a long-term and intentional game plan. First, we needed to get the company on solid financial footing, clean up some capital issues, do some basic things there. Then we needed to get the organization growing consistently and sustainably. We've now done that.

Suneet，我想為 Paul 的評論添加一些背景或細節。首先，我想提醒大家，從我們的角度來看，這是一個長期且有意義的遊戲計畫。首先，我們需要讓公司建立堅實的財務基礎，解決一些資本問題，做一些基本的事情。然後我們需要讓組織持續、永續地發展。我們現在已經做到了。

Now we're in the phase where we want to make the organization more efficient. As we look to efficiency, I can assure you that every member of this management team, they are keenly aware of the need to improve ROE. That's been the number one thing we're focused on. We've literally got a list within the management team of a number of different levers, 10 to 20 different levers we can pull.

現在我們正處於希望提高組織效率的階段。當我們注重效率時，我可以向您保證，該管理團隊的每位成員都敏銳地意識到提高 ROE 的必要性。這是我們關注的第一件事。我們在管理團隊中確實有一份包含許多不同槓桿的清單，我們可以使用 10 到 20 個不同的槓桿。

And there's not one that will give us 100 basis points of improvement on ROE. There's 20 different things that will each give us 5 basis points of improvement on ROE. So where it may sound like we're not being specific, it's actually the converse. We have a lot of specificity within the organization, there's just no one big thing. We're in a place in our evolution where there are 10, 20 different small things, and we've got to pull all of them.

而且沒有一種方法可以讓我們的 ROE 提高 100 個基點。有 20 個不同的因素，每個因素都會使我們的 ROE 提高 5 個基點。因此，雖然聽起來我們沒有具體說明，但實際上恰恰相反。我們的組織內部有很多特殊性，但沒有一件大事。在我們的進化過程中，我們所處的位置有 10、20 個不同的小東西，我們必須把它們全部拉出來。

Most of them as Paul points out around the top line. But some have to do with the numerator, some have to do with the denominator as well and continuing to more efficiently use that equity. So we're very focused on this. It is the number one metric that the entire team is focused on.

正如保羅在頂線周圍指出的那樣，其中大多數都是這樣。但有些與分子有關，有些也與分母有關，並繼續更有效地利用該權益。所以我們非常關注這一點。這是整個團隊關注的首要指標。

And we've got a variety of, frankly, small things that we're pulling on to drive that ROE up. We will stay focused on this. I've been talking about this for 4 to 6 quarters now, and I've assured our investors, we will improve the ROE. You're seeing signs of that, and we will continue to drive it.

坦白說，我們正在採取各種小措施來提高 ROE。我們將繼續關注這一點。我已經談論這個問題四到六個季度了，我已經向我們的投資者保證，我們將提高淨資產收益率。您已經看到了這種跡象，我們將繼續推動這一趨勢。

Wes Carmichael, Autonomous.

韋斯‧卡邁克爾，《自治》。

Apologizes my line dropped earlier. But my first question was on advertising spend, and I know that's been pulled back quite a bit related to the election cycle. But when would you expect to reaccelerate that? And how are you expecting that to come through the margins in 2025?

抱歉我的線路早些時候掉線了。但我的第一個問題是關於廣告支出，我知道這與選舉週期有很大關係。但您預計什麼時候會重新加速呢？您預計 2025 年這一目標將如何實現？

Yes, Wes, thanks for the question. So let me first say, since sitting in the chair here at CNO, this is my third presidential election cycle. And this one appears to be following the same exact pattern as the 2 before it. And that is the following. Remember that we manage our D2C business very tightly based on the yield we get from the advertising.

是的，韋斯，謝謝你的提問。首先我要說的是，自從我擔任 CNO 主席以來，這是我的第三個總統選舉週期。這一個似乎遵循與之前 2 個完全相同的模式。這就是下面的內容。請記住，我們根據廣告收益來嚴格管理 D2C 業務。

And when we see ad costs go up or the yield go down when we see basically that efficacy deteriorate, we stop spending the money. We're fine letting the volume go away, we're confident that when the ad spend can be done more efficiently, we get the yield we want. We'll step it up again, and we'll see good results again. Now I will say that one of the things that's changed over the last three election cycles that I've been sitting in the chair is the fact that the TV viewing habits of America have changed.

當我們看到廣告成本上升或產量下降時，當我們基本上看到效果惡化時，我們就會停止花錢。我們可以讓數量消失，我們相信，當廣告支出可以更有效地完成時，我們就能獲得我們想要的利益。我們將再次加緊努力，我們將再次看到良好的結果。現在我要說的是，在我擔任主席的過去三個選舉週期中發生的變化之一是美國的電視觀看習慣已經改變。

So we are very intentionally relying less and less on TV. I do expect that when the ad rates come back down after the cycle, and I don't know if that will be in 4Q or early 1Q, but it will be sometime in the next one to two quarters. I can't tell you exactly when. When ad pricing comes back down, we will once again step up that TV advertising, but it may be to a degree that's less than it was, say, in the election cycle of 2016.

所以我們有意越來越少依賴電視。我確實預計廣告費率會在周期結束後回落，我不知道是在第四季度還是第一季初，但會在接下來一到兩個季度的某個時候。我無法告訴你具體時間。當廣告定價回落時，我們將再次加大電視廣告力度，但幅度可能會低於，例如 2016 年選舉週期。

And that's primarily because we're starting to rely more and more on non-television advertising, a whole 30% of the volume from our D2C leads is now coming from non-television sources, so social media, online and so on. We expect that shift to continue. So again, the TV advertising will be higher than it is through the advertising cycle, but it may not be quite as high as it was, say, eight years ago, primarily because we're adjusting to changes in viewer habits and where the advertising yields the efficacy.

這主要是因為我們開始越來越依賴非電視廣告，我們的 D2C 銷售線索中 30% 的銷售現在來自非電視來源，例如社群媒體、線上廣告等。我們預計這種轉變將持續下去。因此，電視廣告將比整個廣告週期更高，但可能不會像八年前那樣高，主要是因為我們正在適應觀眾習慣的變化以及廣告投放的位置。

The bottom line to take away is we've got a really good D2C business. We've got a model where we know how to appeal to our target consumer and we continue to pivot and adjust our advertising venues based on where the eyeballs are and where the yield is the best, and we will continue to do that.

最重要的是我們擁有非常好的 D2C 業務。我們有一個模型，我們知道如何吸引目標消費者，我們將繼續根據眼球在哪裡以及哪裡的產量最好來調整我們的廣告場所，我們將繼續這樣做。

Gary, that's very helpful. My follow-up was on the Annuity segment. I think there's a couple of moving pieces this quarter. I think there's a benefit from some reserve releases in the closed block and maybe a little bit of sequential pressure on the fixed index annuity portion of the business. So just hoping you could help us a little bit with how you're thinking about the run rate margin going forward.

加里，這非常有幫助。我的後續行動是年金部分。我認為本季有一些令人感動的事情。我認為封閉區塊中釋放一些準備金是有好處的，而且可能會對業務的固定指數年金部分帶來一點連續壓力。因此，希望您能在如何考慮未來的運行率裕度方面為我們提供一些幫助。

So it's Paul. I'll take that. So yes, as I said in my prepared remarks, the margins were impacted by higher amortization due to our change in assumption to reflect higher surrenders over the last couple of years. That assumption was taken in 4Q of last year and then additionally in 3Q of this year. So you're seeing that in the year-over-year comparison. The current period, I think, is fairly reflective of run rate.

所以是保羅。我會接受的。所以，是的，正如我在準備好的演講中所說，由於我們改變了假設以反映過去幾年更高的退保率，因此利潤率受到了較高攤銷的影響。這項假設是在去年第四季採取的，然後是在今年第三季採取的。所以你可以在同比比較中看到這一點。我認為，當前時期相當能反映運行率。

Thank you. That concludes the Q&A session. So I will bring you back over to Adam for any further remarks.

謝謝。問答環節到此結束。因此，我將把您帶回 Adam 處，徵求進一步的意見。

Thank you, operator, and thank you all for participating in today's call. Please reach out to the Investor Relations team if you have any further questions. Have a great rest of your day.

謝謝接線員，也謝謝大家參加今天的電話會議。如果您有任何其他問題，請聯絡投資者關係團隊。祝您有個愉快的一天。

Thank you. That concludes today's call. Thank you for your participation. You may now disconnect your lines.

謝謝。今天的電話會議到此結束。感謝您的參與。現在您可以斷開線路。