Canadian National Railway Co (CNI) 2023 Q2 法說會逐字稿

Good afternoon. My name is Emma, and I will be your conference operator today. Welcome to CN's Second Quarter 2023 Financial and Operating Results Conference Call. (Operator Instructions)

下午好。我叫艾瑪，今天我將擔任你們的會議操作員。歡迎參加 CN 2023 年第二季度財務和運營業績電話會議。 （操作員說明）

I would now like to turn the call over to Stacy Alderson, Interim Assistant Vice President, Investor Relations. Ladies and gentlemen, Ms. Alderson.

我現在想將電話轉給投資者關係臨時助理副總裁史黛西·奧爾德森 (Stacy Alderson)。女士們先生們，奧爾德森女士。

Thank you, Emma. Good afternoon, everyone, and thank you for joining us for CN's Second Quarter 2023 Financial Results Conference Call.

謝謝你，艾瑪。大家下午好，感謝您參加 CN 2023 年第二季度財務業績電話會議。

Before we begin, I'd like to draw your attention to the forward-looking statements and additional legal information available at the beginning of the presentation. As a reminder, today's conference call contains certain projections and other forward-looking statements within the meaning of the U.S. and Canadian securities laws. These statements are subject to risks and uncertainties that may actually cause results to differ materially from those expressed or implied in these statements. They are more fully described in our cautionary statement regarding forward-looking statements in our presentation.

在開始之前，我想提請您注意演示文稿開頭提供的前瞻性陳述和其他法律信息。提醒一下，今天的電話會議包含美國和加拿大證券法含義內的某些預測和其他前瞻性陳述。這些陳述存在風險和不確定性，這些風險和不確定性實際上可能導致結果與這些陳述中明示或暗示的結果存在重大差異。我們在演示文稿中有關前瞻性陳述的警告聲明中對它們進行了更全面的描述。

After the prepared remarks, we will conduct a Q&A session. I do want to remind you to please limit yourself to one question. The IR team will be available after the call for any follow-up questions.

在準備好的發言之後，我們將進行問答環節。我確實想提醒您，請將自己限制在一個問題上。 IR 團隊將在電話會議後解答任何後續問題。

Joining us on the call today are Tracy Robinson, our President and CEO; Doug MacDonald, our Chief Marketing Officer; Ghislain Houle, our Chief Financial Officer; and Ed Harris, our Chief Operating Officer.

今天加入我們電話會議的是我們的總裁兼首席執行官 Tracy Robinson；道格·麥克唐納 (Doug MacDonald)，我們的首席營銷官； Ghislain Houle，我們的首席財務官；以及我們的首席運營官艾德·哈里斯 (Ed Harris)。

It is now my pleasure to turn the call over to CN's President and Chief Executive Officer, Tracy Robinson.

現在我很高興將電話轉給 CN 總裁兼首席執行官 Tracy Robinson。

(foreign language) It has been a couple of months since we saw many of you in Chicago at our Investor Day, and we're continuing to execute the plan we laid out for you then. We're running a scheduled operation that moves our assets quickly and services our customers consistently, and this is the central theme. And we're driving our growth initiatives on that foundation. Over the 3-year period we discussed in Chicago and beyond, our path is very clear. The longer-term fundamentals remain strong. The growth opportunities are real. We continue to progress that growth agenda built on the foundation of strong service, driven by disciplined adherence to our plan.

（外語）自從我們在芝加哥的投資者日見到你們中的許多人以來，已經有幾個月了，我們將繼續執行我們當時為你們制定的計劃。我們正在按計劃進行運營，以快速轉移我們的資產並持續為我們的客戶提供服務，這是中心主題。我們正在在此基礎上推動我們的增長計劃。在我們在芝加哥及其他地區討論的三年期間，我們的道路非常清晰。長期基本面依然強勁。增長機會是真實的。在嚴格遵守我們的計劃的推動下，我們將繼續推進建立在強大服務基礎上的增長議程。

Now the immediate term is a little less certain. This team has dealt with a number of external weather-related issues over this past few months as well as a West Coast port strike over the last few weeks. As we sit here today, we're also seeing a little bit more weakness on the economic front than we modeled earlier this year. Now all of this is temporary, as you know, and our team is doing a great job of managing through it with an eye on the longer term.

現在，近期的情況不太確定。該團隊在過去幾個月處理了許多與天氣相關的外部問題，並在過去幾周處理了西海岸港口罷工。當我們今天坐在這裡時，我們還看到經濟方面比我們今年早些時候預測的更加疲軟。如您所知，現在所有這一切都是暫時的，我們的團隊著眼於更長遠的目標，在管理方面做得很好。

The heat and the wildfires in parts of both Eastern and Western Canada over the last few months have impacted our operations and the operations of some of our customers, and that's had a temporary impact on volumes. And we've seen more generally a softer volume market economically, particularly in some of our commodity segments. I must say I have been impressed by our team's response. They are managing -- through this, they're staying true to our plan. They're running the plan and still through all of it, improving year-over-year velocity, network train speeds, dwell time and customer service. You'll notice this in our operating stats. They've done a great job, and it's a testament not only the team, but also to the strength of our plan. The plan is working.

過去幾個月，加拿大東部和西部部分地區的高溫和野火影響了我們的運營和一些客戶的運營，這對銷量產生了暫時的影響。我們普遍看到經濟上銷量市場疲軟，特別是在我們的一些大宗商品領域。我必須說我們團隊的反應給我留下了深刻的印象。他們正在管理——通過這一點，他們忠於我們的計劃。他們正在執行該計劃，並且仍然貫穿整個計劃，逐年提高速度、網絡列車速度、停留時間和客戶服務。您會在我們的運營統計數據中註意到這一點。他們做得非常出色，這不僅證明了團隊，也證明了我們計劃的力量。該計劃正在發揮作用。

As we look forward, our focus is on continuing to be nimble, adjusting to the softer volumes in the near term and ensuring that we're prepared for the lift. We continue to refine the operating plan to match the volume level. So we're consolidating train starts, we're laying down locomotives and cars where it makes sense. This keeps our network balanced and our assets moving quickly. It maintains our service levels, and it mitigates cost. And as we said we would do, should we find ourselves in this situation, we're adjusting our hiring plans to match what is now a slower expected return of some of our commodity segments. And we're taking the opportunity to advance some locomotive engineer training to ensure that we're ready for the medium and the longer term. And all of these are the right near-term actions that mitigate the impact of lower volumes without jeopardizing our ability to respond when the rebound comes. And it will come, and we will be ready.

展望未來，我們的重點是繼續保持靈活性，適應近期銷量疲軟的情況，並確保為上漲做好準備。我們繼續完善運營計劃以匹配銷量水平。因此，我們正在整合火車的啟動，我們在有意義的地方放置機車和車廂。這使我們的網絡保持平衡，資產快速流動。它維持了我們的服務水平，並降低了成本。正如我們所說，我們會做的，如果我們發現自己處於這種情況，我們正在調整我們的招聘計劃，以適應我們某些商品領域目前較慢的預期回報。我們正在藉此機會推進一些機車工程師培訓，以確保我們為中長期做好準備。所有這些都是正確的近期行動，可以減輕成交量下降的影響，而又不會損害我們在反彈到來時做出反應的能力。它會到來，我們會做好準備。

This puts our margins under a little bit of pressure right now, but our margin leverage will return with the volume. So let's talk about what this all means. Our second quarter EPS of $1.76 is 9% lower than last year on an adjusted basis, and our 60.6% operating ratio is 160 basis points higher. Now this is the impact of both the macroeconomic being softer than we anticipated and those challenges presented by the weather events here in Canada.

這使我們的利潤率目前面臨一些壓力，但我們的保證金槓桿將隨著交易量的增加而恢復。那麼讓我們來談談這一切意味著什麼。我們第二季度的每股收益為 1.76 美元，調整後比去年低 9%，而我們 60.6% 的運營比率提高了 160 個基點。這是宏觀經濟比我們預期疲軟以及加拿大天氣事件帶來的挑戰的影響。

On the basis of what we saw in the second quarter and are seen in these few weeks in July, we've taken a hard look at our year-end outlook. And we're now assuming that the economic recovery is pushed into 2024. So we expect the year-over-year change in annual adjusted EPS to be flat to slightly negative. The team is going to provide you today with more details about our thinking on this. But before I hand it over to them, I just want to say a few words about the situation on the Canadian West Coast ports.

根據我們在第二季度和 7 月份這幾週所看到的情況，我們認真審視了年終前景。我們現在假設經濟復甦將推遲到 2024 年。因此，我們預計年度調整後每股收益的同比變化將持平至小幅負值。今天，該團隊將向您提供有關我們對此的想法的更多詳細信息。但在交給他們之前，我只想簡單說一下加拿大西海岸港口的情況。

We are pleased to see an end to the work stoppage, and we're working hard to get those supply chains back in sync. We expect to move most of the volumes that didn't move during the first 2 weeks of July over the coming weeks. This event is another reminder that happens on one part of the supply chain impacts the full supply chain. Major disruptions like the ILWU strike, the wildfires and now some flooding in Nova Scotia have impacts across the North American supply chain. And it is critical that we respond as an entire supply chain community to minimize the impact and build ongoing confidence in the North America and the global supply chain performance. This is how we approach our work here at CN. I'm proud of this team's ability demonstrated again in this past quarter to respond in a way that minimizes the impact for our customers, for our employees, for our supply chain partners and the communities in which we operate.

我們很高興看到停工的結束，我們正在努力讓這些供應鏈恢復同步。我們預計將在未來幾週內轉移 7 月前兩週未轉移的大部分成交量。這一事件再次提醒我們，發生在供應鏈某一部分的事件會影響整個供應鏈。 ILWU 罷工、野火以及現在新斯科舍省的一些洪水等重大破壞對整個北美供應鏈產生了影響。至關重要的是，我們作為整個供應鏈社區做出反應，以盡量減少影響並建立對北美和全球供應鏈績效的持續信心。這就是我們在 CN 開展工作的方式。我為這個團隊在上個季度再次表現出的能力感到自豪，他們能夠最大限度地減少對我們的客戶、我們的員工、我們的供應鏈合作夥伴以及我們運營所在社區的影響。

So I'll turn it to the team. Ed is going to first give us a little more color, Ed, on the state of our operations and how his team has been working to mitigate the impact of these events. Doug will follow up with an update on the markets and what our customers are telling us about the volumes as we look forward. And Ghis is always on a cleanup to bring it all together with the numbers. Ed?

所以我會把它交給團隊。埃德將首先向我們介紹我們的運營狀況以及他的團隊如何努力減輕這些事件的影響。道格將跟進市場的最新情況以及我們的客戶告訴我們的有關未來銷量的信息。吉斯總是在進行清理工作，將所有內容與數字結合在一起。艾德？

Thank you, Tracy. The second quarter has been a tough one. And I want to acknowledge and thank the entire operations team for all the great work to keep the network running as well as it has this quarter. Tracy just recently mentioned the floods in Nova Scotia. We've no doubt seen the disruptions in the news clips just outside Halifax. We're working around the clock, and I would like to thank -- especially thank Millbrook First Nations in Nova Scotia for their intention and taking care and feeding our engineering people through this disruption. It's relationships like these that makes railroads run smoother, safer and we hope we do our part for the community as well, too. So we're going to try to get this track open as quickly as we can, and we really appreciate the help they've given us at the work site.

謝謝你，特雷西。第二季度是艱難的一個季度。我要感謝整個運營團隊為保持網絡本季度的正常運行所做的一切出色工作。特雷西最近剛剛提到了新斯科舍省的洪水。毫無疑問，我們在哈利法克斯郊外的新聞片段中看到了混亂。我們正在全天候工作，我要感謝——特別感謝新斯科舍省米爾布魯克原住民的意願，並在這次中斷期間照顧和餵養我們的工程人員。正是這樣的關係使鐵路運行更加順暢、安全，我們希望也能為社區儘自己的一份力量。因此，我們將盡力盡快開放這條賽道，我們非常感謝他們在工作現場為我們提供的幫助。

You heard me say this at Investor Day back in May, and it's important to repeat now. The plan is sacred. We're not going to change how we operate the network in the face of weather and volume challenges. Our scheduled operating model is the right model for our network through all economic cycles.

你在五月份的投資者日上聽到我說過這句話，現在重複一遍很重要。這個計劃是神聖的。面對天氣和流量挑戰，我們不會改變網絡運營方式。我們預定的運營模式是適合我們網絡在所有經濟周期中的正確模式。

Turning to the quarter. Car velocity averaged 216 miles per day in quarter 2, up 3% year-over-year, a meaningful improvement considering the challenges I'll talk about in a minute. Remember that we were also lapping the improvement the team started delivering last year. We're not going to take our eyes off of car velocity moving forward, but I'm very happy with that level of speed. Velocity provides fluidity and creates capacity across the network. While this was done moving 9% less gross ton miles, it provides an important foundation for the eventual recovery in demand.

轉向季度。第二季度汽車速度平均每天 216 英里，同比增長 3%，考慮到我稍後將討論的挑戰，這是一個有意義的進步。請記住，我們還對團隊去年開始提供的改進表示讚賞。我們不會把目光從汽車前進的速度上移開，但我對這種速度水平非常滿意。速度提供了流動性並創造了整個網絡的容量。雖然這樣做的總噸英里數減少了 9%，但它為需求的最終恢復提供了重要的基礎。

We continue to see improvements in our origin train performance. I have to give the team a solid A for achieving above 90% in the quarter. We aim to maintain that level of performance going forward. These operating results were achieved despite some unexpected challenges this quarter. We had to contend with record wildfires in Eastern and Western Canada portions of the network, which also had an impact on our customers' ability to operate. Necessity is the mother of invention. And we've been actively engaged to protect our infrastructure with sprinkler systems deployed on many of our wooden structures in high-risk areas. And our Poseidon firefighting train has been deployed since May. For those who may be unfamiliar, the Poseidon concept transforms a bulkhead flat car into a self-contained, rail-mounted fire suppression system which draws water from attached tank cars. In fact, we recently made the decision to enhance our fire response by building 2 additional Poseidon trains to better protect our network and support the communities in which we operate.

我們繼續看到我們的始發列車性能有所改善。我必須給團隊一個堅實的 A，因為他們在本季度取得了 90% 以上的成績。我們的目標是繼續保持這種績效水平。儘管本季度遇到了一些意想不到的挑戰，但仍取得了這些經營業績。我們必須應對加拿大東部和西部網絡部分創紀錄的野火，這也對我們客戶的運營能力產生了影響。需要是發明之母。我們一直在積極保護我們的基礎設施，在高風險地區的許多木結構建築上部署了噴水滅火系統。我們的波塞冬消防列車從五月份就開始部署了。對於那些可能不熟悉的人來說，波塞冬概念將艙壁平板車轉變為獨立的軌道安裝式滅火系統，從連接的罐車中汲水。事實上，我們最近決定通過建造兩列額外的波塞冬列車來加強我們的火災應對能力，以更好地保護我們的網絡並支持我們運營所在的社區。

We experienced a nearly 800% increase in heat-related delay hours in Western Canada with almost 750 hours of delay versus 80 last year. Heat slows mean running trains slower than track speed, which impacts network train speed and car velocity, even requiring a new heat category called extreme heat conditions. And finally, we had an orderly ramp down in traffic, moving in and out of the West Coast ports that were affected by the recent work stoppage. It's the right way to prepare for this sort of thing, but it's not without additional cost. These events were impactful but didn't distract us from executing the plan.

加拿大西部因高溫而延誤的時間增加了近 800%，延誤時間接近 750 小時，而去年為 80 小時。高溫減慢意味著列車運行速度低於軌道速度，這會影響網絡列車速度和汽車速度，甚至需要一種稱為極端高溫條件的新高溫類別。最後，我們進出受最近停工影響的西海岸港口的交通量有序減少。這是為此類事情做好準備的正確方法，但並非沒有額外成本。這些事件具有影響力，但並沒有分散我們執行計劃的注意力。

In this lower volume environment, we took steps to adjust the plan looking at every train start, every local service, every crew start to make sure we operate it as efficiently as we could. By June, our intermodal train starts were down 15% and manifest train starts were down about 5% versus the first quarter. We did this while maintaining car velocity and maybe some of our best customer service levels. Having said that, a couple of our operating measures, including train length, fuel efficiency and locomotive utilization took a short-term hit because of the softer volumes.

在這種低運量的環境中，我們採取措施調整計劃，考慮每趟列車的啟動、每一次本地服務、每個機組人員的啟動，以確保我們盡可能高效地運營。到 6 月，我們的多式聯運列車開工率比第一季度下降了 15%，艙單列車開工率也下降了約 5%。我們這樣做的同時保持了汽車速度，也許還保持了我們最好的客戶服務水平。話雖如此，由於運量疲軟，我們的一些運營指標，包括列車長度、燃油效率和機車利用率，在短期內受到了打擊。

Fuel efficiency was also impacted by disruptions in the related stops and starts that we had to endure during the worst of the fire. Even when things were changing quickly out there, we need to keep railroading simple when we focus on running a scheduled operation that allows us to recover from issues and outages much quicker.

燃油效率還受到火災最嚴重期間我們不得不忍受的相關停車和啟動中斷的影響。即使情況瞬息萬變，當我們專注於運行預定的運營時，我們也需要保持鐵路運輸的簡單性，以便我們能夠更快地從問題和停運中恢復過來。

Before I hand it over to Doug, I want to say an important word on safety. I know I speak for Tracy and the whole leadership team when I say that safety is of the utmost importance and needs to be at the core of how we operate this railroad. We were deeply saddened on April 28 when we lost one of our own. We have made great strides in recent years, but it's all for nothing if we don't all go home safely at the end of the day.

在將其交給道格之前，我想就安全問題​​說一句重要的話。我知道當我說安全至關重要並且需要成為我們運營這條鐵路的核心時，我代表特雷西和整個領導團隊。 4 月 28 日，我們失去了一位親人，我們深感悲痛。近年來，我們取得了長足的進步，但如果我們最終不能安全回家，一切都是白費。

With that, I'll pass it on to Doug to discuss top line performance and market outlook.

接下來，我會將其轉交給道格，討論營收業績和市場前景。

Thanks, Ed. I wanted to take a moment to acknowledge the operations and customer service teams. They have been helping our employees, customers and communities affected by the ongoing wildfires in Canada. Throughout the quarter, the teams remained engaged and our customers are saying that CN is providing the best service in the industry.

謝謝，艾德。我想花點時間向運營和客戶服務團隊表示感謝。他們一直在幫助我們的員工、客戶和受加拿大持續野火影響的社區。整個季度，團隊一直保持積極參與，我們的客戶表示 CN 提供了業內最好的服務。

Before turning to the quarter, I'd like to recap the current situations with the wildfires and the ILWU strike. Ed gave some good color about the impacts of the fires on our operations. The wildfires are affected -- also affected customers, some of whom are forced to take intermittent shutdowns. This mainly affected forest products customers but also our coal, sulfur, frac sand and NGL customers. Most of the business impacted in Q2 will not be recoverable. But I can say that CN did not lose any market share with customers. Customers are simply shipping less and matching the demand in the economy.

在討論本季度之前，我想回顧一下當前的山火和 ILWU 罷工情況。 Ed 詳細介紹了火災對我們運營的影響。野火受到了影響，客戶也受到了影響，其中一些客戶被迫間歇性關閉。這主要影響了林產品客戶，但也影響了我們的煤炭、硫磺、壓裂砂和液化天然氣客戶。第二季度受影響的大部分業務將無法恢復。但我可以說，CN 並沒有失去任何客戶的市場份額。客戶只是減少運輸量並滿足經濟需求。

For the ILWU strike, there was a minor impact on Q2 results as we took steps to meter flows into the port terminals before the strike began on July 1. The strike lasted 13 days plus a 24-hour wildcat last week. CN's recovery plan kicked into action on July 14. We are running additional trains out of Vancouver and Rupert to clear the backlog and expect it to take up to 8 weeks to be current if all areas of the supply chain work together.

ILWU 罷工對第二季度業績產生了輕微影響，因為我們在 7 月 1 日罷工開始之前採取了措施來計量進入港口碼頭的流量。罷工持續了 13 天，加上上週的 24 小時臨時罷工。 CN 的恢復計劃於 7 月 14 日開始實施。我們正在從溫哥華和魯珀特開出額外的列車，以清理積壓的貨物，如果供應鏈的所有領域共同努力，預計最多需要 8 週的時間才能處理完畢。

Second quarter revenues were $4.1 billion, down 7% versus last year on 8% lower RTMs. We saw a softer-than-expected demand environment for consumer-related products with significant volume step-downs in intermodal, both international and domestic as well as forest products. In particular, lumber shipments were down with depressed prices and some producers running at cost. As mentioned, the wildfires in Northern Alberta and B.C. as well as Quebec also impacted forest products volumes. Petroleum and chemicals volumes declined, reflecting lower spot crude business this year and softer demand for chemical feedstocks.

第二季度收入為 41 億美元，較去年下降 7%，RTM 下降 8%。我們看到消費者相關產品的需求環境比預期疲軟，國際和國內多式聯運以及林產品的銷量大幅下降。特別是，由於價格低迷和一些生產商按成本經營，木材出貨量下降。如前所述，艾伯塔省北部和不列顛哥倫比亞省的野火以及魁北克省也影響了林產品產量。石油和化學品產量下降，反映出今年現貨原油業務減少以及對化學原料的需求疲軟。

Most bulk business lines continued to be strong with RTMs up 12%. Met coal remained solid in the second quarter, but we did lose some trains due to the wildfires. Thermal coal volumes were weaker due to the lower export demand, but volumes are picking up in Q3 already. U.S. grain volumes were down year-over-year, reflecting strong U.S. corn and soybean shipments down to the Gulf last year due to the strong export demand. Canadian grain was the bright spot in the quarter with close to 50% more RTMs versus last year. We continue to deliver for our grain customers and to engage closely to optimize the supply chain.

大多數散裝業務繼續表現強勁，RTM 增長了 12%。第二季度煤炭供應保持穩定，但由於野火，我們確實損失了一些列車。由於出口需求下降，動力煤銷量有所下降，但第三季度銷量已經有所回升。美國穀物產量同比下降，反映出去年由於出口需求強勁，美國玉米和大豆向海灣地區的運輸量強勁。加拿大穀物是本季度的亮點，RTM 數量比去年增加了近 50%。我們繼續為糧食客戶提供服務，並密切合作以優化供應鏈。

In April, the Canadian Transportation Agency announced a 12% pricing index increase for the upcoming 2023, 2024 crop year for CN. We saw positive growth for both domestic and export potash in the second quarter due to the optionality of CN's network going to St. John. Core pricing remains strong, and we continue to price above rail inflation. But notably, we had had poor intermodal storage revenues this year, and that headwind will continue through the back half of 2023.

4 月，加拿大運輸署宣布將即將到來的 2023 年和 2024 年作物年度的 CN 定價指數提高 12%。由於 CN 網絡可以選擇前往聖約翰，我們看到第二季度國內和出口鉀肥均出現正增長。核心定價仍然強勁，我們的定價繼續高於鐵路通脹。但值得注意的是，我們今年的多式聯運倉儲收入不佳，而且這種逆風將持續到 2023 年下半年。

Let me take this opportunity to update you on our Falcon service. We started the premium service back in May. The product is performing well, meeting the posted transit times and in some cases, exceeding them and volumes continue to grow.

讓我藉此機會向您介紹我們的獵鷹服務的最新情況。我們早在五月份就開始提供優質服務。該產品表現良好，滿足了公佈的運輸時間，在某些情況下甚至超過了運輸時間，並且數量繼續增長。

Turning to the outlook on Slide 10. For the remainder of the year, we see continued uncertainty in the economy. Aside from the impact of the strikes, the broader environment for intermodal continues to be challenging. We see improvement being pushed into 2024. Pricing for short-haul domestic lanes will be under pressure due to the increasingly available truck capacity. Lumber also remains under pressure, but commodity prices have started to pick up. There is still a shortage of about 7 million homes in the U.S. that need to be built.

轉向幻燈片 10 的前景。在今年剩餘時間內，我們看到經濟持續存在不確定性。除了罷工的影響外，多式聯運的更廣泛環境仍然充滿挑戰。我們預計到 2024 年將出現改善。由於可用卡車運力不斷增加，短途國內航線的定價將面臨壓力。木材也仍然面臨壓力，但大宗商品價格已開始回升。美國仍短缺約 700 萬套房屋需要建造。

Chemicals and petroleum production may be soft for the remainder of the year due to the extended recovery. For Canadian grain, we are now anticipating the 2023, 2024 crop to be in the mid-60 million-ton range, below last year's 74 million-ton crop, and we are closely monitoring the moisture levels across the Prairies. This revised view will not affect volumes in 2023. We will be running full outcome harvest, but will be a headwind next spring.

由於復蘇時間延長，今年剩餘時間化學品和石油生產可能會疲軟。對於加拿大穀物，我們目前預計 2023 年和 2024 年的產量將在 6000 萬噸左右，低於去年的 7400 萬噸，並且我們正在密切監測整個大草原的濕度水平。這一修訂後的觀點不會影響 2023 年的產量。我們將進行全面的成果收穫，但明年春天將是一個逆風。

Canadian coal demand will be -- will retain steady and potash should be strong in Q4. Automotive should continue to outperform with new import business via Vancouver. To finish, there is no doubt, lots of uncertainty right now. What is certain is that we are working closely with our customers, we are committed to providing industry-leading service, and we will be ready when the economy improves. We remain on track to deliver on our longer-term growth plan that we outlined at Investor Day.

加拿大煤炭需求將保持穩定，鉀肥在第四季度將保持強勁。通過溫哥華進口的新業務，汽車行業應該會繼續表現出色。最後，毫無疑問，目前存在很多不確定性。可以肯定的是，我們正在與客戶密切合作，我們致力於提供行業領先的服務，當經濟好轉時我們將做好準備。我們仍有望實現我們在投資者日概述的長期增長計劃。

With that, I'll pass it on to Ghislain.

這樣，我會將其傳遞給 Ghislain。

(foreign language) I will talk to Slide 12 of the presentation, which will provide more visibility on our second quarter performance. As you have heard from Ed, we had strong operating results in the quarter despite challenging conditions, but our financial results reflect (inaudible) demand environment. Altogether, volumes were significantly impacted with 8% lower RTMs on a year-over-year basis.

（外語）我將討論演示文稿的幻燈片 12，這將使我們更清楚地了解我們第二季度的業績。正如您從埃德那裡聽到的，儘管面臨嚴峻的形勢，我們本季度的經營業績依然強勁，但我們的財務業績反映了（聽不清）需求環境。總而言之，RTM 同比下降 8%，銷量受到顯著影響。

Let me provide you with more details on the quarter. My comments will reflect adjusted results, which exclude advisory costs related to shareholder matters in the second quarter of 2022. We delivered operating income of around $1.6 billion, 10% lower than adjusted operating income last year. Our operating ratio came in at 60.6%, up 160 basis points versus the adjusted operating ratio for the same period last year. EPS for the quarter finished at $1.76, 9% lower than last year on an adjusted basis. We have estimated the impact of wildfires was unfavorable to EPS by $0.07 and dilutive to the OR by 100 basis points.

讓我向您提供有關本季度的更多詳細信息。我的評論將反映調整後的結果，其中不包括 2022 年第二季度與股東事務相關的諮詢費用。我們實現了約 16 億美元的營業收入，比去年調整後的營業收入低 10%。運營率為60.6%，比去年同期調整後的運營率上升160個基點。本季度每股收益為 1.76 美元，調整後比去年下降 9%。我們估計野火的影響對 EPS 不利 0.07 美元，並稀釋 OR 100 個基點。

In terms of expenses, labor was up over $50 million FX adjusted versus last year, mostly due to an 8% higher headcount. Given the current environment, we have slowed or in some cases, paused hiring. Fuel expense was over $200 million lower from the same period last year FX adjusted mostly due to a 30% decrease in price and a 9% lower workload in terms of GTMs, partly offset by a 6% worsening in fuel efficiency. Shorter trains along with the impact of operational disruptions that Ed and Doug talked about negatively impacted our fuel efficiency performance. Fuel surcharge lag was favorable this quarter.

就費用而言，經過匯率調整後，勞動力費用比去年增加了 5000 萬美元以上，主要是由於員工人數增加了 8%。鑑於當前的環境，我們已經放慢了招聘速度，甚至在某些情況下暫停了招聘。經匯率調整後，燃油費用比去年同期減少了 2 億多美元，主要是由於價格下降了 30%，GTM 工作量減少了 9%，但燃油效率惡化 6% 部分抵消了這一影響。埃德和道格談到的列車較短以及運營中斷的影響對我們的燃油效率產生了負面影響。本季度燃油附加費的滯後性是有利的。

Moving on to Slide 13. Let me provide some visibility to our revised guidance for 2023. Several unforeseen headwinds now inform our view for the full year. First, the second quarter results came in lower than we expected. Second, we now anticipate the demand environment to be both weaker and for longer with the recovery in intermodal pushed into next year and forest products weakness continuing into 2024. We are pleased that the port strike is behind us with volume recovery efforts underway, and we expect to recover some business, but not all of it.

繼續看幻燈片 13。讓我對我們修訂後的 2023 年指導方針進行一些介紹。現在，一些不可預見的不利因素影響了我們對全年的看法。首先，第二季度業績低於我們的預期。其次，我們現在預計，隨著多式聯運的複蘇推遲到明年，林產品的疲軟持續到 2024 年，需求環境將更加疲軟且持續時間更長。我們很高興港口罷工已經過去，貨運量恢復工作正在進行中，我們預計會恢復一些業務，但不是全部。

So far in July, volumes on an RTM basis are down about 11% year-over-year. We are, therefore, revising our full year outlook and now expect to deliver flat to slightly negative EPS growth in 2023 versus our previous guidance of mid-single-digit growth. This assumes FX of approximately $0.75 and WTI of USD 75 per barrel. We remain committed to shareholder distributions and under our current share repurchase program, we have repurchased over 11 million shares for around $1.8 billion. We still expect to deliver on our budget of about $4 billion for our current program, which runs through January 31, 2024.

7 月份迄今為止，RTM 銷量同比下降約 11%。因此，我們正在修改全年展望，目前預計 2023 年每股收益將持平或略有負增長，而我們之前的指導為中個位數增長。假設外匯約為每桶 0.75 美元，WTI 約為每桶 75 美元。我們仍然致力於股東分配，根據我們當前的股票回購計劃，我們已經回購了超過 1100 萬股股票，價值約 18 億美元。我們仍預計能夠為當前計劃提供約 40 億美元的預算，該計劃將持續到 2024 年 1 月 31 日。

In conclusion, let me reiterate a few points. The team is committed to the scheduled railroad model through all economic cycles, which provides reliable service for our customers. We expect volume to remain soft with a recovery push to 2024. Given our year-to-date results and the continued weak economic environment, we are now guiding for flat to slightly negative EPS growth for the year. We have a strong balance sheet that provides us financial flexibility, and we'll allocate our capital in a manner that drives long-term value for our shareholders.

最後，讓我重申幾點。該團隊致力於整個經濟周期的定期鐵路模型，為我們的客戶提供可靠的服務。我們預計，隨著經濟復甦，到 2024 年，銷量將保持疲軟。鑑於我們今年迄今的業績和持續疲軟的經濟環境，我們目前預計今年每股收益將持平或略有負增長。我們擁有強大的資產負債表，為我們提供了財務靈活性，並且我們將以能夠為股東帶來長期價值的方式分配資本。

Let me pass it back to Tracy.

讓我把它傳回給特雷西。

Thanks, Ghis. And Emma, let's open the line for questions, please.

謝謝，吉斯。艾瑪，請讓我們開通提問熱線。

(Operator Instructions) The first question comes from the line of Cherilyn Radbourne with TD Cowen.

（操作員說明）第一個問題來自 Cherilyn Radbourne 和 TD Cowen 的線路。

In terms of your latest view that the recovery will be pushed into 2024, I was just hoping for a bit of color on what you're expecting for the peak season this year and whether your thinking is that the 2024 recovery will be evident prior to or after the Chinese New Year holiday.

就您關於復蘇將推遲到 2024 年的最新觀點而言，我只是希望能了解一下您對今年旺季的預期，以及您是否認為 2024 年的複蘇將在 2024 年之前顯現出來。或農曆新年假期後。

Cheril, it's Doug. Thanks for the question. Right now, what our customers are telling us is they're expecting a weaker-than-expected Q3, Q4, which is why we've actually changed our guidance. So we're not really sure what's going to happen in Q1 and beyond. But what we are doing is we're kind of forecasting a normal year beyond that. And that's as far as we've gone based on what the customers have told us.

謝麗爾，我是道格。謝謝你的提問。目前，我們的客戶告訴我們，他們預計第三季度、第四季度的業績將弱於預期，這就是我們實際上改變了指導的原因。因此，我們不太確定第一季度及以後會發生什麼。但我們正在做的是預測這一年之後的正常情況。這就是我們根據客戶告訴我們的情況所做的。

Your next question comes from the line of Ravi Shanker with Morgan Stanley.

你的下一個問題來自拉維·尚克 (Ravi Shanker) 與摩根士丹利 (Morgan Stanley) 的對話。

Maybe as a follow-up to that question, I think your macro outlook for the rest of the year going '24 is a touch more bearish than what you've heard from many of your rail and trucking peers so far. So again, do you feel like it's something reasonably unique to the end markets you're exposed to, the geographies you're exposed to? Or do you feel like are you being more conservative? Or do you feel like it's just some realization that hasn't fully sunk in yet for everybody else?

也許作為這個問題的後續，我認為您對 24 年剩餘時間的宏觀前景比您迄今為止從許多鐵路和卡車運輸同行那裡聽到的更加悲觀。那麼，您是否覺得這對於您所接觸的終端市場、您所接觸的地區來說是相當獨特的？或者你覺得自己更加保守？或者你覺得這只是其他人還沒有完全理解的一些認識？

That's a great question, Ravi, it's Doug again. So listen, we can only forecast based on what our customers are telling us. So really, everyone is a little bit bearish right now for the rest of the year. It's a little bit more positive starting in 2024, and that's really all we're forecasting, all we're guiding towards.

這是一個很好的問題，拉維，又是道格。所以聽著，我們只能根據客戶告訴我們的內容進行預測。所以說實話，現在每個人都對今年剩餘時間有點看跌。從 2024 年開始，情況會變得更加積極，這就是我們的預測和指導。

And I'll come in over top of that a little bit, Ravi. I mean I think that -- without a doubt, this is something that nobody knows for sure. And so as we approach the way we're going to operate this railroad is we are ready for whatever happens. And I think that we've demonstrated that we can be nimble in turning our service levels up or down to the plan. And so we're ready. If it comes, we'll be there. And if it's not, it waits a little longer, then we have a plan for what we're going to do in that case as well.

我會稍微討論一下，拉維。我的意思是，我認為——毫無疑問，這是沒有人確切知道的事情。因此，當我們制定運營這條鐵路的方式時，我們已經做好了應對任何情況的準備。我認為我們已經證明我們可以根據計劃靈活地提高或降低我們的服務水平。我們已經準備好了。如果它來了，我們就會在那裡。如果不是，則需要等待更長的時間，然後我們也會針對這種情況制定一個計劃。

Your next question comes from the line of Scott Group with Wolfe Research.

您的下一個問題來自 Scott Group 和 Wolfe Research 的線路。

So you said a couple of times adjusting the hiring plan. Any color on exactly what you're doing with headcount going forward in the back half of the year? And then I thought I heard a comment about short-haul pricing slowing a little bit. Maybe just talk more broadly what you're seeing from a pricing renewal standpoint and how pricing is holding up.

所以你說過幾次調整招聘計劃。您對今年下半年的員工人數具體做了哪些工作有什麼看法嗎？然後我想我聽到了關於短途定價稍微放緩的評論。也許只是更廣泛地談論您從定價更新的角度看到的情況以及定價如何維持。

I'll start with that one, Scott, and then I'll pass it over to Doug. I think he can talk about pricing. I think you misheard the comment. From a hiring perspective, we said right from the beginning that what we would -- the first lever that we would pull is we would look at the number of people we were hiring. So we've done that. As just outlined, we have stopped in some areas. And in those hard to hire or hard to keep locations, we have slowed down considerably with a view to what we expect volumes to be, say, Q1, Q2 next year is when those employees would be operational. We are still managing through a level of attrition as we look forward. So if you think about kind of FTs and people levels, you can expect to see it stabilize through the remainder of the year. And of course, if things change, we've got the plans in place to do that as well. So that's how I think about it. Doug, pricing?

我將從斯科特開始，然後將其交給道格。我認為他可以談論定價。我認為你聽錯了評論。從招聘的角度來看，我們從一開始就說過，我們要採取的第一個槓桿是我們會考慮我們正在招聘的人數。所以我們已經做到了。正如剛才所概述的，我們已經在某些領域停止了。在那些難以僱用或難以保留的地點，我們已經大大放慢了速度，以達到我們預期的產量，例如明年第一季度、第二季度這些員工將開始運作。展望未來，我們仍在應對一定程度的人員流失。因此，如果你考慮一下 FT 的類型和人員水平，你可以期望看到它在今年剩餘時間內保持穩定。當然，如果情況發生變化，我們也會制定相應的計劃。這就是我的想法。道格，定價？

Yes. For the pricing that we mentioned, it's really talking about the intermodal product. And obviously, with the lots of, I'll say, trucking industry issues right now, our biggest competition is within the short-haul trucking market. So that's where we're seeing some price pressures just in that market. Most of our market in intermodal is long haul, so it's not a big portion, but we just like to highlight the fact that there is some pressure there and that we are starting to see it.

是的。對於我們提到的定價，它實際上是在談論聯運產品。顯然，我想說，目前卡車運輸行業存在很多問題，我們最大的競爭來自短途卡車運輸市場。因此，我們在該市場上看到了一些價格壓力。我們的多式聯運市場大部分都是長途運輸，所以佔比並不大，但我們只是想強調一個事實，即那裡存在一些壓力，而且我們已經開始看到它。

Okay. And -- but you didn't give like an overall pricing renewal number or anything?

好的。而且 - 但您沒有提供總體定價續訂數字或其他信息？

No, we did not.

我們沒有。

Your next question comes from the line of Walter Spracklin with RBC Capital Markets.

您的下一個問題來自 RBC Capital Markets 的 Walter Spracklin。

So when you discussed the impact, I think you bucketed them all together, lower demand, wildfires, import strike being a 10% hit to your original forecast. I wanted to see if I could isolate a little bit the nonrecurring or the real nonrecurring being the wildfires and the port strike. If we were to strip that out, if you could quantify that impact.

因此，當您討論影響時，我認為您將需求下降、野火、進口罷工等因素綜合在一起，對您最初的預測造成了 10% 的打擊。我想看看我是否可以隔離一些偶發事件或真正的偶發事件，即野火和港口罷工。如果我們把它去掉，如果你能量化這種影響。

And what I'm wondering is if that hit you this year and it was unexpected versus what you were anticipating when you set your guidance, would we see the potential for a higher growth rate in 2024, given you're lapping a bunch of fairly significant nonrecurring items? Or is there something changed as well in your outlook for 2024? I know as you adjust your grain as well, does that offset some of that, what would have been a higher growth rate in 2014 -- 2024?

我想知道的是，如果今年你遇到這種情況，並且與你設定指導時的預期相比，這是出乎意料的，那麼我們是否會看到 2024 年更高增長率的潛力，因為你正在經歷一系列相當大的增長重要的非經常性項目？或者您對 2024 年的展望是否也發生了變化？我知道當你調整你的穀物時，這是否會抵消一些，2014 年至 2024 年的更高增長率是多少？

Yes. Thanks, Walter. So thanks for the question. So as I said in the remarks, we did quantify the impact of the wildfires in the second quarter to be $0.07 of EPS or 100 basis point of OR. I think in our guidance right now, we're not assuming significant impacts of wildfires going forward. And as you know, some of those wildfires are still occurring as we speak. They're not touching our network as we speak. They're not impacting our customers. So we're not assuming, as I said, wildfires going forward.

是的。謝謝，沃爾特。謝謝你的提問。正如我在評論中所說，我們確實將第二季度山火的影響量化為 EPS 0.07 美元或 OR 100 個基點。我認為在我們目前的指導中，我們並沒有假設野火未來會產生重大影響。如您所知，在我們發言時，其中一些野火仍在發生。在我們說話的時候他們並沒有接觸我們的網絡。他們不會影響我們的客戶。因此，正如我所說，我們不會假設未來還會發生野火。

The other thing on the strike, it did impact us month to date. But we believe that we will recover a good chunk of it over the next couple of weeks. So I don't think this will be a significant impact going forward. Now we're assuming that this tentative agreement will be ratified. And then the last big piece that guided that supports our guidance or our new guidance is the fact that, as we said before, we were assuming some type of recovery in the second half. And now having better visibility, Walter today, we feel that most of that recovery will be pushed in 2024. I think when you put all of those pieces together, that's where give us the guidance that we've just talked about today.

關於罷工的另一件事，迄今為止確實對我們產生了影響。但我們相信，在接下來的幾週內，我們將恢復其中的大部分。所以我認為這不會對未來產生重大影響。現在我們假設這個暫定協議將獲得批准。然後，支持我們的指導或新指導的最後一個重要因素是，正如我們之前所說，我們假設下半年會出現某種類型的複蘇。現在，沃爾特，我們現在有了更好的能見度，我們認為大部分複蘇將在 2024 年推動。我認為，當你將所有這些部分放在一起時，這就是我們今天剛剛討論的指導的地方。

Your next question comes from the line of David Vernon with Bernstein.

你的下一個問題來自大衛·弗農和伯恩斯坦的對話。

Doug, maybe first question for you on the set of market opportunities you kind of laid out for us back at Investor Day. There's a pretty bullish set of volumes out there. How should we be thinking about that opportunity set in relation to a weaker 2023? Should we be fixing those numbers kind of in the same range and there'll be incremental as the economy recovers? Or is that scope of opportunity been adjusted for? Or should we be adjusting that scope of opportunity in line with the economic weakness?

道格，也許你的第一個問題是關於你在投資者日為我們展示的一系列市場機會。市場上有相當多的成交量。面對疲軟的 2023 年，我們應該如何看待這一機會？我們是否應該將這些數字固定在同一範圍內，並且隨著經濟復甦而增加？或者這個機會的範圍是否已經過調整？或者我們是否應該根據經濟疲軟來調整機會範圍？

No. That's a great question. Thanks, David. So with respect to our 2024-2026 plan, I think that's all still on target. Those are very specific projects that we outlined. None of them are really being impacted right now. We have 2 projects that were due to start that we highlighted out to the team with respect to in 2023. One of those is our Northeast BC, where we're putting in a new siding to add capacity. That is moving ahead. We have the volumes kind of locked in there. Ed's team is busy building that siding as we speak. And we still have our Toronto fuels terminal, which should be up and running in Q4 to receive volume, and that's moving full steam ahead. So right now, everything is on time and on target. So it's actually doing really well.

不，這是一個很好的問題。謝謝，大衛。因此，就我們的 2024-2026 年計劃而言，我認為這一切仍然符合目標。這些是我們概述的非常具體的項目。目前他們都沒有真正受到影響。我們向團隊重點介紹了 2 個預計將於 2023 年啟動的項目。其中之一是我們的 BC 省東北部，我們將在那裡修建一條新的側線以增加容量。那正在向前推進。我們把捲都鎖在那裡了。在我們說話的時候，埃德的團隊正在忙著建造那條支線。我們仍然擁有多倫多燃料碼頭，該碼頭應該在第四季度啟動並運行以接收貨量，並且正在全力推進。所以現在，一切都按時、按目標進行。所以它實際上做得非常好。

Okay. And then just maybe just a quick follow-up. The CapEx numbers that you guys presented at Investor Day were also, I think, maybe a little bit higher than the market had been expecting. Are you at a point now where you need to recalibrate the level of spending, given what we're seeing either to the upper downside maybe to repair some of the damage that's been done or to delay some capacity investments based on what's happening with volumes?

好的。然後也許只是快速跟進。我認為，你們在投資者日上提出的資本支出數字也可能比市場預期的要高一些。考慮到我們所看到的上行下行可能是為了修復一些已經造成的損害，或者根據數量發生的情況推遲一些產能投資，您現在是否需要重新調整支出水平？

Yes. I think that we are looking at CapEx very closely, David. We always do. We are looking at every project. We are making sure that there's an appropriate return. We are continuing to do our basic maintenance. And when -- typically, when volumes are lower, it allows the engineering team to actually get better work blocks and we can actually put rail and ties at a lower unit cost. So we're continuing that program. But as volumes -- if volumes continue to weaken, absolutely, we're looking at discretionary CapEx and making sure to question ourselves whether we need to spend the money or not.

是的。大衛，我認為我們正在非常密切地關注資本支出。我們總是這樣做。我們正在研究每個項目。我們正在確保有適當的回報。我們正在繼續進行基本維護。當——通常是當產量較低時，它允許工程團隊實際上獲得更好的工作塊，並且我們實際上可以以較低的單位成本放置鐵路和枕木。所以我們正在繼續該計劃。但隨著交易量的增加——如果交易量繼續疲軟，我們絕對會考慮可自由支配的資本支出，並確保問自己是否需要花錢。

But so far, I mean, I think our plan is continuing, and we're continuing to add capacity in Western Canada because we believe that we will need it. And yes, volumes are a little lower, so maybe you'll have a little bit of the time value of money, but the team right now is being very productive putting the capital, especially the construction capital in with lower volumes.

但到目前為止，我的意思是，我認為我們的計劃仍在繼續，我們將繼續增加加拿大西部的產能，因為我們相信我們將需要它。是的，產量有點低，所以也許你會有一點資金的時間價值，但團隊現在正在非常高效地投入資本，特別是建設資本，產量較低。

David, I can add, Ed Harris here. I can add, we're taking advantage of some of these disruptions by hardening the railroad. We're spending money smartly. The outage at -- the washout at Halifax, for instance, we're going with bigger culverts, more colors so we don't have to go through this again. And the same thing goes for the areas that we suffered some fires. And we saw opportunities for sprinklers and pumps and things like that. We just can't go through this type of disruption anymore, to be honest about it.

大衛，我可以補充一下，艾德·哈里斯。我可以補充一點，我們正在通過加固鐵路來利用其中一些中斷。我們花錢很明智。例如，哈利法克斯的停電，我們將使用更大的涵洞，更多的顏色，這樣我們就不必再經歷一次。我們遭受火災的地區也是如此。我們看到了灑水器和泵之類的機會。老實說，我們不能再經歷這種類型的破壞了。

Your next question comes from the line of Fadi Chamoun with BMO Capital Markets.

您的下一個問題來自 BMO 資本市場的 Fadi Chamoun。

Apologies if you have this out in the press release, I didn't see it, but what is the RTM growth guidance for this year maybe more so for the back half of the year, Q3, Q4? If you could give us some clarity about what you're assuming in guidance in terms of RTM growth. But the main question maybe for Doug, Prince Rupert has kind of struggled, underperformed relative to most of the North American ports even prior to all of this kind of BC strike issues and some of the issues that we saw this year going back into the supply chain issues last year.

如果您在新聞稿中提到這一點，我很抱歉，我沒有看到，但今年的 RTM 增長指導是什麼，也許今年下半年、第三季度、第四季度更是如此？您能否向我們澄清一下您在 RTM 增長方面的指導假設。但對於道格來說，主要的問題可能是，即使在所有此類不列顛哥倫比亞省罷工問題以及我們今年看到的一些問題回到供應方面之前，魯珀特王子港相對於大多數北美港口來說已經陷入困境，表現不佳去年的連鎖問題。

Do you characterize some of these issues that are hampering Rupert more kind of transitory? Are you from conversation with your partners at the port and customers seeing a change in behavior and how people view that port and the service of that port into the U.S. I'm just wondering if this is just kind of a trend that's already issued because of the supply chain and obviously the weakness in the demand that we saw this year or if there's more to it than that.

您是否描述了其中一些暫時阻礙魯珀特的問題？您是否從與港口合作夥伴和客戶的對話中看到了行為的變化以及人們如何看待該港口以及該港口到美國的服務？我只是想知道這是否只是一種已經發布的趨勢，因為供應鏈以及今年我們看到的需求疲軟，或者是否還有其他原因。

Fadi, it's Doug. Thanks for that very long question. So I'll kind of address it in two parts. So for -- listen, we're expecting for the RTM forecast to be above industrial production. That was always what we've said. We continue to see that moving forward into Q3 and Q4. We will finish the year above industrial production and we're very confident in that.

法迪，我是道格。謝謝你提出這麼長的問題。所以我會分兩部分來解決這個問題。因此，聽著，我們預計 RTM 預測將高於工業生產。我們一直都是這麼說的。我們繼續看到這種情況進入第三季度和第四季度。今年我們將完成超過工業生產的目標，我們對此非常有信心。

With respect to Rupert, it's a great question. Listen, before the port strike, we are starting to see actually some green shoots, if you want, for Rupert. We're starting to pick up some business there again. So Rupert is one of those cutting-edge ports. It's in a great location. It's really there to serve both the U.S. market and Canada. And as we see some of the volumes are starting to shift there, and then we had a port strike. So we're waiting for that to recover.

對於魯珀特來說，這是一個很好的問題。聽著，在港口罷工之前，如果你願意的話，我們實際上開始看到魯珀特的一些萌芽。我們又開始在那裡開展一些業務。所以魯珀特是最先進的港口之一。它的位置非常好。它確實是為美國市場和加拿大市場服務的。正如我們所看到的，一些貨量開始轉移到那裡，然後我們發生了港口罷工。所以我們正在等待它恢復。

We've actually added 4 trains into the network right now that are moving extra business for it. So we're going to recover and then we're going to see where those markets are. But it continues to be, listen, the jewel in the crown for us. The customers love it. The service has been excellent there for the last year, and that's all they can talk about. And we're pretty sure we're going to see all that volume recover.

實際上，我們現在已經在網絡中添加了 4 趟列車，為其運送額外的業務。因此，我們將復蘇，然後我們將看看這些市場在哪裡。但聽著，它仍然是我們皇冠上的寶石。顧客喜歡它。去年那裡的服務非常好，這就是他們能談論的一切。我們非常確定我們將看到所有銷量恢復。

Your next question comes from the line of Chris Wetherbee with Citigroup.

您的下一個問題來自花旗集團的 Chris Wetherbee。

I wanted to ask maybe 2 things around how you're looking at kind of the rest of the year and into next year, first on the macro side and then maybe a little bit more specifically to the business. But I guess, what are the sort of indicators that you're looking at to get a sense of maybe how long some of this downturn may last? I know you said that you can do what the customers are telling you. You can kind of plan around what the customers are telling you. So I'm guessing that might be the answer, but if there's any sort of guidepost that you think are important to look for over the course of the next quarter or 2, that would be great.

我想問一下您如何看待今年剩餘時間和明年的兩件事，首先是宏觀方面，然後可能是更具體的業務方面。但我想，您正在尋找哪些指標來了解這種低迷可能會持續多久？我知道你說過你可以按照客戶告訴你的去做。您可以圍繞客戶告訴您的內容進行計劃。所以我猜這可能就是答案，但如果您認為在下一季度或第二季度的過程中需要尋找任何類型的指南，那就太好了。

And then Ghislain, maybe one for you. When you think about incremental cost levers that you can pull, I know sort of protecting the workforce because it's been so difficult to acquire, these employees is important to you. Are there other things that you can pull? Or at what point do you think it does make sense to look at the workforce and let attrition work its course to get it a little bit lower. Just kind of curious how you're thinking about that.

然後是 Ghislain，也許適合你。當你考慮可以使用的增量成本槓桿時，我知道某種程度的保護勞動力，因為很難獲得這些員工，但這些員工對你來說很重要。還有其他可以拉的東西嗎？或者你認為在什麼時候考慮勞動力並讓自然流失來降低勞動力水平確實有意義。只是有點好奇你是怎麼想的。

I'll start on that, Chris, and then I'll hand it over to Doug and Ghis to add a little bit of color. Listen, I think Doug did a great job of going through our different commodity segments and what we're expecting. I'll do it in short form. We have a very strong bulk franchise. It's continuing to operate very well. The demand is strong. We talked about what we're looking at on the grain portfolio, on potash and what we're expecting on the pricing on that front.

克里斯，我將從這個開始，然後將其交給道格和吉斯添加一點色彩。聽著，我認為道格在了解我們不同的商品細分市場以及我們的期望方面做得很好。我會用簡短的形式來做。我們擁有非常強大的散裝特許經營權。它繼續運行得很好。需求強勁。我們討論了我們對穀物投資組合、鉀肥的看法以及我們對這方面定價的預期。

If you -- the next piece of our portfolio is more the merchandise piece, and that is pretty strong, pretty flat for strong. We're not seeing a big downside. There's a few pieces in there that's softer, but generally, fairly strong. The big question mark is on the consumer-centric. It's the containers and its lumber right now given housing starts. There is no doubt that, that's got to pick back up again with the construction that's got to take place in North America. It's just a matter of when.

如果你——我們投資組合的下一個部分更多的是商品部分，那是相當強勁的，非常平穩的強勁。我們沒有看到很大的缺點。其中有幾塊較軟，但總的來說相當堅固。最大的問號是以消費者為中心。鑑於房屋開工，現在是集裝箱及其木材。毫無疑問，隨著北美的建設，這種情況必須再次回升。這只是時間問題。

Same thing with the container demand. We're not anticipating based on what Doug is hearing, to see a big peak before the holiday period, but we are expecting to see some strength start to grow and return to a more normalized level, say, next year. So that's -- it's kind of how we're looking at it. Automotive, we think more on the consumer side is going to continue to be strong from everything that we hear and from our customers as well.

集裝箱需求也是如此。根據道格所聽到的情況，我們預計不會在假期前看到一個大的峰值，但我們預計明年會看到一些力量開始增長並恢復到更加正常的水平。這就是我們看待它的方式。汽車方面，從我們和客戶的消息來看，我們認為消費者方面將繼續保持強勁勢頭。

And on the cost side, without a doubt. I mean what we want to do is be really good at managing and responding to the third-party impact that we can't control. And I think this team has done a really good job of that, very strong. And then the things that we can't control, we're very methodical about. And we are doing that through -- as we laid out for you in Chicago, we're doing that through network operations and the plan so that when we execute, we secure the full benefit of those cost mitigations and we continue to service our customers.

在成本方面，毫無疑問。我的意思是，我們想要做的是真正善於管理和應對我們無法控制的第三方影響。我認為這個團隊在這方面做得非常好，非常強大。對於我們無法控制的事情，我們會非常有條理地處理。我們正在通過網絡運營和計劃來做到這一點，正如我們在芝加哥為你們所闡述的那樣，這樣當我們執行時，我們就能充分享受到這些成本降低帶來的好處，並繼續為我們的客戶提供服務。

As we go along, it is -- we believe we're taking all the right actions. As we go along, if we come to a different view of the -- what the economy is going to look like next year and what volumes may look like, then we'll make other decisions. But right now, these are the decisions we're making on the best information that we have.

隨著我們的進展，我們相信我們正在採取所有正確的行動。在我們前進的過程中，如果我們對明年的經濟狀況和銷量有不同的看法，那麼我們將做出其他決定。但現在，這些是我們根據我們所掌握的最佳信息做出的決定。

Yes. Tracy covered that all really well. So the only thing I'll add in from a signpost is I always tend to look, Chris, at our petroleum and chemicals business, and it's actually pretty flat. And that's always a leading indicator as the economy improves. And we just haven't seen it start to go up yet. So that's one of the indicators I would suggest you always watch for the economy, especially for the railways.

是的。特蕾西很好地涵蓋了這一切。因此，我要從路標中添加的唯一一件事是，克里斯，我總是傾向於關注我們的石油和化學品業務，它實際上相當平坦。隨著經濟的改善，這始終是一個領先指標。我們只是還沒有看到它開始上升。因此，這是我建議您始終關注經濟的指標之一，尤其是鐵路。

And then just to give some examples of costs that we can pull out and we are pulling out actually is, for example, we parked a lot of center beams, okay? So a lot of those center beams are leased and they have staggered expiry date. We do this intentionally and we're able to return some of these cars to the lessors and obviously reduce our car higher expense.

然後舉一些我們可以取消的成本示例，我們實際上正在取消，例如，我們停放了很多中心梁，好嗎？因此，許多中心樑都是租賃的，並且它們的到期日是錯開的。我們是有意這樣做的，我們能夠將其中一些汽車退還給出租人，並明顯減少我們的汽車更高的費用。

The other place where we pull cost is we park locomotives. And of course, we park the ones that are the gas guzzlers and older locomotives and use this as an opportunity to rejuvenate our active fleet that's out there pulling freight. So those are outside of -- and as we said in our remarks, we are looking at hiring. We still have good attrition at CN. So attrition is helping us, and we are pacing ourselves on hiring and slowing it down in some cases. But I want to be clear that we have some hard to hire locations in Western Canada that we're thinking the mid- to long-term, we're continuing to hire in those locations because they're very difficult to get people to come on the network.

我們降低成本的另一個地方是我們停放機車。當然，我們會停放那些耗油量大的機車和舊機車，並以此為契機，振興我們正在拉動貨運的活躍車隊。因此，這些都超出了——正如我們在發言中所說，我們正在考慮招聘。 CN 的人員流失率仍然很高。因此，人員流失對我們有幫助，我們正在調整招聘速度，並在某些情況下放慢招聘速度。但我想澄清的是，我們在加拿大西部有一些難以招聘的地點，我們正在考慮從中長期來看，我們將繼續在這些地點招聘，因為它們很難讓人們來在網絡上。

Your next question comes from the line of Ken Hoexter with Bank of America.

您的下一個問題來自美國銀行的 Ken Hoexter。

Just to clarify that last answer or part of it, Tracy. You kind of target volumes to outpace IP yet, I just want to understand this with the fire strikes, floods, cutting the grain crop, pushing intermodal volumes to next year, pushing demand into next year, you're still targeting outpacing IP as maybe is IP much larger negative from your point of view? Or maybe just talk about that perspective. And then you mentioned -- Doug, you mentioned truck competition. You didn't mention anything about rail, your peer rail is being measured on rail-to-rail competition on gains. Have you seen that step up in any fashion in this environment?

只是為了澄清最後一個答案或其中的一部分，特雷西。你的目標量是超過IP，我只是想了解這一點，因為火災、洪水、糧食作物減產、將多式聯運量推至明年、將需求推至明年，你的目標仍然是超過IP，因為也許從您的角度來看，IP 的負面影響更大嗎？或者也許只是談談這個觀點。然後你提到——道格，你提到了卡車競爭。你沒有提到任何有關鐵路的事情，你的同行鐵路是通過鐵路之間的競爭來衡量收益的。在這種環境下，您是否看到過這種進步？

Ken, yes. As you know, IP is a public number. And it is -- it moves around a little bit. It's still showing negative for the year. As we add up the total volume expectations based on what we've -- kind of what we've outlined to you, we see ourselves, as Doug said, coming in stronger than industrial production in any scenario. So we're pretty firm in that. Doug?

肯，是的。眾所周知，IP是一個公眾號。它確實——它移動了一點。今年仍然呈現負值。當我們根據我們已經向您概述的內容計算總產量預期時，正如道格所說，我們認為自己在任何情況下都會比工業生產更強。所以我們對此非常堅定。道格？

The only thing I'll add into, Ken, is on the rail competition. We haven't really seen any market share loss with our customers at all, both to rail or to truck. So we are seeing, obviously, like I said, some price pressure on the trucking side for short-haul business. But outside of that, all of our customers are very happy with our service, and we continue to push product. We've seen some temporary gains due to the port shutdown like moving potash to St. John instead of it going to Vancouver, but that's about it.

肯，我唯一要補充的是鐵路競賽。我們實際上沒有看到客戶的任何市場份額損失，無論是鐵路還是卡車。因此，正如我所說，顯然我們看到短途業務的貨運方面面臨一些價格壓力。但除此之外，我們所有的客戶都對我們的服務非常滿意，我們將繼續推廣產品。由於港口關閉，我們看到了一些暫時的收益，例如將鉀肥轉移到聖約翰而不是溫哥華，但僅此而已。

Doug, I thought you said you did lose to truck given you couldn't move it, so some volume was lost in that. Is that what you said given the port strike?

道格，我以為你說過你確實輸給了卡車，因為你無法移動卡車，所以損失了一些體積。鑑於港口罷工，你是這麼說的嗎？

We lost some temporary business, I'll say, like so we lost some temporary coal business and some going to Vancouver during the strike in Q2 -- in Q3, sorry, that will show up in Q3 business. In Q2, we lost a little bit of lumber as mills were closed due to the fires, things like that, that isn't recoverable.

我會說，我們失去了一些臨時業務，就像我們在第二季度的罷工期間失去了一些臨時煤炭業務和一些前往溫哥華的業務一樣，在第三季度，抱歉，這將出現在第三季度的業務中。在第二季度，我們損失了一些木材，因為工廠因火災而關閉，諸如此類的事情是無法恢復的。

Your next question comes from the line of Benoit Poirier with Desjardins Capital Markets.

您的下一個問題來自 Desjardins Capital Markets 的 Benoit Poirier。

Wondering if you could provide more details given the lack of accessorial charges boost, whether you -- I assume that you will be facing a tough compare. And very rapidly just in terms of the average length of all for intermodal, I thought that you were closer to 1,600 miles, if not 1,800 miles. So I was just curious how much of your intermodal is exposed to short haul?

鑑於缺乏附加費用的增加，我想知道您是否可以提供更多詳細信息，我認為您將面臨艱難的比較。就聯運的平均長度而言，很快，我認為即使不是 1,800 英里，也接近 1,600 英里。所以我只是好奇你們的聯運中有多少是短途運輸？

Benoit, the first part of your question got cut off. Could you repeat it?

Benoit，你問題的第一部分被打斷了。你能再說一遍嗎？

Yes. Just in terms of yield expectation for the balance of the year. I was wondering what we should expect in terms of yield for the second half given that the accessorial charges won't be a boost anymore.

是的。僅就今年剩餘時間的收益率預期而言。我想知道鑑於附加費用不再增加，我們對下半年的收益率應該有什麼期望。

Okay. So for the accessorial charges, we have about $100 million-plus headwind on that in Q2, and we expect that to continue through Q3 and Q4, right? So that's part of the yield issue that you're questioning. And on the short haul versus long haul, so you're right. You have your number dead on. We actually have most of our long-haul business in that really big market. But we do move a bunch of short haul, but it's a small percentage of our business, right? It's almost always long haul. So we do move traffic between Montreal and Toronto, Toronto and Moncton. So it's a little bit shorter haul than coming off Vancouver going all the way to Toronto, Montreal, Chicago. So that's where we're facing that price pressure is in that short-haul market.

好的。因此，對於附加費用，我們在第二季度面臨約 1 億美元以上的阻力，我們預計這種情況將持續到第三季度和第四季度，對嗎？這就是您所質疑的產量問題的一部分。就短途與長途而言，所以你是對的。你的號碼已經接通了。實際上，我們的大部分長途業務都在這個非常大的市場中。但我們確實有大量短途運輸，但這只占我們業務的一小部分，對嗎？幾乎總是長途跋涉。因此，我們確實在蒙特利爾和多倫多、多倫多和蒙克頓之間轉移交通。因此，這比從溫哥華一路飛往多倫多、蒙特利爾、芝加哥的路程要短一些。這就是我們在短途市場中面臨的價格壓力。

Your next question comes from the line of Tom Wadewitz with UBS.

您的下一個問題來自瑞銀集團 (UBS) 的湯姆·瓦德維茨 (Tom Wadewitz)。

I wanted to ask you about how we might think about operating ratio and maybe inflation, how that would have an effect. I think transports have certainly dealt with inflation in the cost base. And as the revenue slows down, it's more challenging from a margin perspective, finding ways to offset that. I know the Canadian dynamic is a little bit different than what we see from some of the U.S. companies. But how do you think about the kind of profile for inflation as you look into 2024 with a little softer view? And what you might be able to do to kind of stabilize the OR on kind of a year-over-year basis?

我想問你我們如何看待運營比率，也許還有通貨膨脹，這會產生什麼影響。我認為運輸業肯定已經應對了成本基礎的通貨膨脹。隨著收入放緩，從利潤角度來看，找到抵消這一影響的方法更具挑戰性。我知道加拿大的動態與我們從一些美國公司看到的有點不同。但是，當您以溫和一點的觀點展望 2024 年時，您如何看待通貨膨脹的情況呢？您可以採取哪些措施來穩定 OR 的同比情況？

Thanks, Tom, it's Tracy. Listen, we've been pretty clear that we see opportunities in our margins as we go forward over the longer term. And we see that in a number of places. We're not yet where we need to be from an operating efficiency perspective. We've made significant gains, and we've handled some of the external events extremely well. There's still more work to do there, and we're excited about getting at that.

謝謝，湯姆，我是特雷西。聽著，我們非常清楚，從長遠來看，我們在利潤中看到了機會。我們在很多地方都看到了這一點。從運營效率的角度來看，我們還沒有達到我們需要達到的目標。我們取得了顯著的成果，並且我們非常好地處理了一些外部事件。還有更多工作要做，我們對此感到很興奮。

Certainly, we're standing behind our pricing above inflation perspective. And Doug is doing a great job delivering that on the basis of the service that is providing him. That's going to continue. We do have the headwind on some of the storage and other charges that occurred last year when the supply chains got pretty congested. So as we look forward, you're going to see us improve our margins.

當然，我們支持定價高於通脹的觀點。道格在為他提供的服務的基礎上做得很好。這種情況將會繼續下去。去年供應鏈相當擁擠時，我們確實遇到了一些存儲和其他費用的不利因素。因此，展望未來，您將看到我們的利潤率有所提高。

Right now, we're going to have a little bit of -- we're going to be a little bit lighter on operating margin while the volumes are down. But we are positioned extremely well to get at a very low cost, the upside when the volumes return. That's the model, that's how we're going to run it, and you'll see that leverage pick up as the volumes come back.

現在，在銷量下降的同時，我們的營業利潤率將會有所下降。但我們處於非常有利的位置，可以以非常低的成本獲得銷量回升時的上行空間。這就是模型，這就是我們運行它的方式，隨著交易量的恢復，你會看到槓桿率上升。

So you think it's much more driven by volume than by price, just in terms of when we might transition to seeing improvement?

所以您認為，就我們何時可以過渡到看到改善而言，它更多地是由數量而不是價格驅動的？

Yes, absolutely.

是的，一點沒錯。

Your next question comes from the line of Konark Gupta with Scotiabank.

您的下一個問題來自豐業銀行科納克·古普塔 (Konark Gupta) 的電話。

Just wanted to dig into the guidance, if I can. So what are some of the puts and takes explaining the gap between the top and bottom end? So the EPS guidance range of flat to slightly negative. And I'm not sure what the slightly negative means. Could that be a low or mid-single-digit decline?

如果可以的話，我只是想深入了解指導。那麼，有哪些看跌期權和看跌期權可以解釋頂部和底部之間的差距呢？因此，每股收益指導範圍持平至小幅負值。我不確定輕微的消極意味著什麼。這會是低個位數或中個位數的下降嗎？

So thanks, Konark. So what explains the gap between flat to negative, it's really volume. So in one scenario, we get a little bit more volume than we expected. And in the slightly negative, it's slightly negative, then we get less volume in the second half of the year than what we expected. So it's really a volume story.

謝謝，科納克。那麼，解釋持平與負值之間差距的原因，其實是成交量。因此，在一種情況下，我們得到的數量比我們預期的要多一些。在輕微的負面影響中，如果是輕微的負面影響，那麼我們下半年的銷量將低於我們的預期。所以這確實是一個卷故事。

Your next question comes from the line of Amit Mehrotra with Deutsche Bank.

您的下一個問題來自德意志銀行的 Amit Mehrotra。

I guess I wanted to stress test the 10% to 15% earnings growth framework, I guess, for next year. I mean you guys are operating pretty well if I look at the cost structure, and you're responding at least in terms of what you can control pretty well. I'm just trying to understand, if we're kind of in this lackluster volume environment, you got headwinds on grain, you've got headwinds on forest products next year. But you've also got, on the other hand, a lot of volume opportunity that you outlined at Investor Day. So I guess, I mean, what's the likelihood that we're sitting here 12 months from now in a still weak environment and EPS is not growing or staying the same? Or do you feel like you have enough idiosyncratic volume opportunity where you can kind of move the needle on EPS? How much do you need that's out of your control to get to that 10% to 15% next year?

我想我想對明年 10% 到 15% 的盈利增長框架進行壓力測試。我的意思是，如果我看看成本結構，你們的運營情況相當不錯，而且你們至少在可以很好控制的方面做出了回應。我只是想了解，如果我們處於這種低迷的產量環境中，那麼明年的穀物就會遇到困難，林產品也會遇到困難。但另一方面，您也獲得了您在投資者日概述的大量交易機會。所以我想，我的意思是，從現在起 12 個月後，我們仍處於疲軟的環境中，每股收益沒有增長或保持不變，這種情況的可能性有多大？或者你是否覺得你有足夠的特殊成交量機會來推動每股收益？您需要多少超出您控制範圍的資金才能在明年達到 10% 到 15%？

Amit, it's -- sorry, I welcome you to the dialogue around our table. If we knew for sure what was going to happen from an economic perspective, we could narrow in on this pretty quickly. So just taken you through what we're modeling next year. And as Doug from a volume perspective, you're right, our railroad is running extremely well, and we're poised to capture the upside and send a lot of that to the bottom line as soon as it comes. So we have a plan in place for next year. If it's wrong, then we will adjust. The growth initiatives that we put in front of you in Chicago are there that exist outside of the economic ebbs and flows. And so Doug and Ed are continuing to work on actioning those. Doug talked to you about a couple that are going to come in, and we'll be moving volume prior to the end of the year. And that plan remains intact. So that is something that will move us more positively than whatever is going on in the economic environment at that time.

阿米特，抱歉，我歡迎您參加我們餐桌旁的對話。如果我們從經濟角度確切地知道將會發生什麼，我們就可以很快縮小範圍。我們剛剛向您介紹了我們明年的建模內容。道格從成交量的角度來看，你是對的，我們的鐵路運行得非常好，我們已經準備好抓住上漲空間，並在它到來時立即將其大量送入底線。所以我們已經制定了明年的計劃。如果錯了，我們會調整。我們在芝加哥向你們提出的增長舉措是存在於經濟潮起潮落之外的。因此，道格和埃德正在繼續努力採取這些行動。道格與您談到了一些即將推出的產品，我們將在今年年底前調整銷量。該計劃仍然完好無損。因此，這將比當時經濟環境中發生的任何事情更積極地推動我們。

Can you ringfence that to help us -- yes, sorry, go ahead.

你能把它圍起來來幫助我們嗎——是的，抱歉，請繼續。

Just to clarify, Amit, as well, the 10% to 15%, we said was over the 3-year period. So we did not specifically guide by year. Obviously, we're looking at what's happening. We're going to do our business plan with our Board this fall, as we typically do. And then we typically provide visibility on the year in January. So I want to clarify that the 10% to 15% was over the 3-year period.

阿米特，為了澄清一下，我們所說的 10% 到 15% 是在 3 年期間。所以我們沒有專門按年份來指導。顯然，我們正在關注正在發生的事情。我們將像往常一樣，在今年秋天與董事會一起制定我們的業務計劃。然後我們通常在一月份提供當年的可見性。所以我想澄清一下，10% 到 15% 是在 3 年期間發生的。

Yes. I just assumed it was linear because that would imply like 15% to 25% in the back half, but I understand what you're saying.

是的。我只是假設它是線性的，因為這意味著後半部分有 15% 到 25%，但我明白你在說什麼。

Your next question comes from the line of Brian Ossenbeck with JPMorgan.

您的下一個問題來自摩根大通的 Brian Ossenbeck。

A question for Doug, can you just walk through the assumptions for the Canadian grain harvest? Do you think that's sufficiently derisked at this point given all the weather conditions that we're seeing out there in some of the crop conditions as well? And also the U.S. grain forecast, looks like it's actually raised. But similarly, same sort of challenges out there from that crop. So can you just give some puts and takes around why these went in opposite directions?

問道格一個問題，您能簡單介紹一下加拿大穀物收成的假設嗎？考慮到我們在某些​​作物狀況中看到的所有天氣條件，您認為目前已經充分消除了風險嗎？美國糧食預測似乎也確實上調了。但同樣，該作物也面臨著同樣的挑戰。那麼，您能否給出一些看跌期權和看跌期權，以解釋為什麼它們會朝著相反的方向發展？

Sure, Brian. So thanks for the question. So with respect to the Canadian grain, obviously, you can't really count it until it's off to fields. But from everything we're seeing, both from our customers' crop forecast, which are very accurate especially in Canada, to the government forecast, we're seeing that roughly that 65 million metric ton number, right? So we're pretty confident in that. Now at this time of the year, unless there's a big change in weather that really has a big impact on the crops, it should come in very close. So we're pretty confident on that.

當然，布萊恩。謝謝你的提問。因此，就加拿大的穀物而言，顯然，在它進入田地之前你無法真正計數。但從我們所看到的一切來看，從客戶的作物預測（尤其是在加拿大非常準確）到政府的預測，我們看到了大約 6500 萬噸的數字，對吧？所以我們對此非常有信心。現在每年的這個時候，除非天氣發生重大變化，確實對農作物產生重大影響，否則應該會非常接近。所以我們對此非常有信心。

The crop on our network, on CN's network has more moisture. So we think we're actually fairly well set up to move things through up until Q2 next year. And then we'll only be able to determine that later. With respect to the U.S. crop, it started off as a very dry crop, almost a drought crop. We've seen significant amounts of rain on our network over the last 4 weeks. So that crop forecast on CN through Illinois and Ohio has come up dramatically for us. So we're actually looking at a normal crop in the U.S. right now. Now things could still change. It still has to come off the field as well, but the corn and soybeans are actually have caught up almost to the average right now.

我們網絡上的作物，CN網絡上的作物有更多的水分。因此，我們認為我們實際上已經做好了充分準備，可以將事情推進到明年第二季度。然後我們只能稍後才能確定。就美國作物而言，它一開始是一種非常乾旱的作物，幾乎是一種干旱作物。過去 4 週，我們的網絡出現了大量降雨。因此，對我們來說，從 CN 到伊利諾伊州和俄亥俄州的作物預測大幅上升。所以我們現在實際上正在關注美國的正常作物。現在事情仍然可能發生變化。它還需要離開田地，但玉米和大豆現在實際上已經幾乎達到了平均水平。

Your next question comes from the line of Steve Hansen with Raymond James.

你的下一個問題來自史蒂夫·漢森和雷蒙德·詹姆斯的對話。

Just a follow-up on the grain crop, if I may. It's obviously been dry and stressed as you indicated, Doug. I suspect we likely get an early harvest this year, which should provide some help on the margin. But I also think we're comping up against a pretty benign winter through Q4 and probably even more so in Q1 next year. How do we think about that in relative context? Can you actually move as much grain as last year if the winter is more normal?

如果可以的話，我只是對糧食作物進行後續跟踪。正如你所指出的，道格，這顯然是乾燥和緊張的。我懷疑今年我們可能會獲得早期收穫，這應該會在邊際上提供一些幫助。但我也認為我們將在第四季度應對一個相當溫和的冬季，明年第一季度可能更是如此。我們如何在相對背景下思考這一點？如果冬天正常的話，你真的能運送和去年一樣多的糧食嗎？

So for our network, Steve, it's a good question. So we think our network is going to have slightly lower but not dramatically lower crop overall just because we've -- there's been a lot more moisture across the north, right? So we feel pretty comfortable on our numbers.

所以對於我們的網絡來說，史蒂夫，這是一個很好的問題。因此，我們認為我們的網絡總體產量將略有下降，但不會大幅下降，只是因為我們——北方的濕度增加了很多，對嗎？所以我們對我們的數字感到非常滿意。

With respect to moving it, we had a fairly normal winter. I know we characterized it as a late winter sometimes, but we had the same number of cold days like below minus 30 as we do in a normal winter. We just -- with the operating plan that Ed put together with the team, they just delivered so much better than our prior years. So what we're planning, we're planning on moving the exact same type of volumes that we did before for our customers, and we think we'll be very successful with that and the team.

關於搬家，我們度過了一個相當正常的冬天。我知道我們有時將其描述為冬末，但我們的寒冷天數（低於-30）與正常冬季相同。我們只是 - 根據埃德與團隊制定的運營計劃，他們的交付比我們前幾年好得多。所以我們的計劃是，我們計劃為我們的客戶提供與我們之前所做的完全相同類型的捲，我們認為我們將在這方面和團隊方面取得非常成功。

Ed, I don't know if you want to add anything.

艾德，我不知道你是否想補充什麼。

No. I can tell you, I don't see any real problems at all. I mean today's technology allows us to run repeater cars when it gets extremely cold. We always run distributed power on loaded grain trains. We'll do just as well this year as we did last year.

不，我可以告訴你，我根本沒有看到任何真正的問題。我的意思是，今天的技術使我們能夠在極冷的情況下運行複讀車。我們總是在滿載的糧食列車上運行分佈式電源。今年我們會做得和去年一樣好。

Your next question comes from the line of Justin Long with Stephens.

你的下一個問題來自賈斯汀·朗和斯蒂芬斯的對話。

I wanted to ask about the lag impact from fuel that's getting baked into the guidance for the second half and how that compares to what you saw in the first half. And then just to clarify on the volume guidance, could you share the industrial production number that you're using as a benchmark for this year?

我想問一下下半年指導中所包含的燃料的滯後影響，以及與上半年相比如何。然後為了澄清產量指導，您能否分享一下用作今年基準的工業生產數據？

The industrial production number is, as you saw, census came out a couple of days ago and it was negative 0.2, so it's in that range. And on the lag question, I think that we don't expect a lag. If fuel prices remain the same, we don't expect a lag in Q3 and neither in Q4. Now on a year-over-year basis, if you look at Q3, we had a positive lag last year of about $0.10 on a year-over-year basis, that will be negative. It will impact negatively our year-over-year fuel lag in Q3 by about $0.10.

正如你所看到的，工業生產數據是幾天前公佈的，結果是負 0.2，所以它在這個範圍內。關於滯後問題，我認為我們預計不會出現滯後。如果燃油價格保持不變，我們預計第三季度和第四季度都不會出現滯後。現在，與去年同期相比，如果你看看第三季度，我們去年的正滯後約為 0.10 美元，這將是負值。這將對我們第三季度的同比燃油滯後產生約 0.10 美元的負面影響。

Your next question comes from the line of Brandon Oglenski with Barclays.

你的下一個問題來自巴克萊銀行的布蘭登·奧格倫斯基。

I guess just to recap a couple of things here. Doug, does the pricing hurdle or inflation hurdle remain mid-single digits? Because I think you had implied about 5% looking at your longer-term outlook and maybe even higher in 2023. Do you think you're getting that outside of some of the markets that you called out? And Ed, it looks like your service metrics this quarter were actually pretty decent despite some of those headwinds. So would you expect incremental efficiencies if you can get beyond some of these hurdles?

我想這裡只是回顧一下幾件事。道格，定價障礙或通脹障礙是否仍保持在中個位數？因為我認為您已經暗示了 5% 左右的長期前景，甚至 2023 年可能會更高。您認為您在您提到的一些市場之外也能實現這一目標嗎？艾德，儘管存在一些不利因素，但看起來您本季度的服務指標實際上相當不錯。那麼，如果您能夠克服其中一些障礙，您會期望提高效率嗎？

Absolutely. When I said it was a tough quarter, I meant it was a tough quarter. The fires, the disruptions we had to deal with, we are very well positioned going into third and remainder of the third and fourth quarter. Headcount, power, equipment, we ought to be able to do even better than we did last year at the same time.

絕對地。當我說這是一個艱難的季度時，我的意思是這是一個艱難的季度。我們必須應對火災和乾擾，進入第三季度和第四季度的第三季度和剩餘時間，我們處於非常有利的位置。人員、動力、設備，我們應該能夠比去年同期做得更好。

And Brandon, on the pricing, we continue to be strong on that. Obviously, we talked a little bit about the pressures in some of the intermodal, so the short haul. But outside of that on the rest of the carload business, we're still being fairly aggressive seeing a great pricing environment based on the service that Ed's providing. So I don't see that changing for the rest of the year.

布蘭登，在定價方面，我們繼續保持強勢。顯然，我們討論了一些聯運的壓力，所以短途運輸。但除此之外，在整車業務的其餘部分，我們仍然相當積極地看到基於 Ed 提供的服務的良好定價環境。所以我認為今年剩餘時間裡這種情況不會改變。

Your next question comes from the line of Jon Chappell with Evercore.

你的下一個問題來自 Jon Chappell 和 Evercore 的對話。

Just tying a bunch of things together. Doug, you laid out a pretty detailed bottoms-up view of a lot of the growth opportunities that your customers are pursuing, but now in the kind of more maybe uncertain macro backdrop, even you're looking at your CapEx budget going forward. Have you seen any type of reluctance to move forward with any of the projects that you laid out from the shipper community as both some of the temporary issues have intensified and the uncertainty has probably been elevated as well?

只是把一堆東西綁在一起。道格，您對客戶所追求的許多增長機會提出了非常詳細的自下而上的觀點，但現在在更加不確定的宏觀背景下，即使您正在考慮未來的資本支出預算。您是否發現托運人社區對推進您提出的任何項目有任何形式的猶豫，因為一些臨時問題已經加劇，不確定性也可能增加？

Jon, not to this time, right? We've seen a lot of these projects are longer-term big projects that customers looking at the immediate environment at, they're looking macro, they're looking 2, 3 years out, and we're working there with them. So you take an example like a BHP potash mine as an example, like they're well under construction. It's only going to come up in 2 or 3 years. We don't see them slowing down. In fact, we're seeing them try to speed up. So there's lots of examples like that where people will try and take advantage of the market and the conditions, and they're spending as much money, if not more, because there's more labor availability. So each market is going to be different, each opportunity, but we're working with everyone, and we haven't seen anyone slow down to this point.

喬恩，這次不行，對吧？我們看到很多這樣的項目都是長期的大型項目，客戶著眼於眼前的環境，他們著眼於宏觀，他們著眼於 2、3 年，而我們正在與他們合作。因此，您以必和必拓鉀礦為例，就像它們正在建設中一樣。兩三年後才會出現。我們沒有看到他們放慢腳步。事實上，我們看到他們試圖加快速度。因此，有很多這樣的例子，人們會嘗試利用市場和條件，而且他們會花同樣多的錢，甚至更多，因為有更多的勞動力可用。因此，每個市場、每個機會都會有所不同，但我們正在與每個人合作，而且我們還沒有看到任何人放慢腳步。

This concludes the question-and-answer session. I would like to turn the call back over to Tracy Robinson.

問答環節到此結束。我想把電話轉回給特雷西·羅賓遜。

Thanks, Emma. So an interesting quarter from an external events perspective. I think we've managed it well, and we're all looking for a few less interesting quarters coming up, but we'll manage what comes at us. Our plan though is clear and it's not changing. The discipline around building the plan, running the plan, selling the plan is doing exactly what we wanted it to. It's working. It's delivering consistent, reliable service for our customers and then making effective use of our assets. And as we've talked today as our volumes lift, we're going to see that operating leverage follow suit, and we're ready.

謝謝，艾瑪。從外部事件的角度來看，這是一個有趣的季度。我認為我們已經處理得很好，我們都在尋找即將到來的一些不那麼有趣的季度，但我們會管理出現在我們面前的事情。我們的計劃很明確並且不會改變。圍繞製定計劃、運行計劃、銷售計劃的紀律正在完全按照我們的意願進行。它正在發揮作用。它為我們的客戶提供一致、可靠的服務，然後有效地利用我們的資產。正如我們今天所說，隨著銷量的增加，我們將看到運營槓桿也會隨之增加，我們已經準備好了。

We've got our eyes on our future. We're advanced -- advancing our growth projects, preparing for the rebound and doing exactly what we said we'd do back in May. That being said, as you've heard today, we're reiterating our 2024 to '26 financial perspective of 10% to 15% diluted EPS CAGR. That's all for now. Thanks very much for joining us today.

我們著眼於我們的未來。我們已經取得了進展——推進我們的增長項目，為反彈做好準備，並完全按照我們五月份所說的那樣去做。話雖這麼說，正如您今天所聽到的，我們重申 2024 年至 26 年稀釋每股收益複合年增長率為 10% 至 15% 的財務前景。目前為止就這樣了。非常感謝您今天加入我們。

The conference call has now ended. Thank you for your participation. You may disconnect your lines at this time.

電話會議現已結束。感謝您的參與。此時您可以斷開線路。