Canadian National Railway Co (CNI) 2023 Q1 法說會逐字稿

Good afternoon. My name is Lisa, and I will be your operator today. Welcome to CN's First Quarter 2023 Financial and Operating Results Conference Call. (Operator Instructions) I would now like to turn the call over to Paul Butcher, Vice President, Investor Relations. Ladies and gentlemen, Mr. Butcher.

下午好。我叫麗莎，今天我將是你的接線員。歡迎參加 CN 2023 年第一季度財務和經營業績電話會議。 （操作員說明）我現在想把電話轉給投資者關係副總裁 Paul Butcher。女士們，先生們，布徹先生。

Well, thank you, Lisa. Good afternoon, everyone, and thank you for joining us for CN's First Quarter 2023 Financial Results Conference Call. Now before I begin, I'd like to draw your attention to the forward-looking statements and additional legal information available at the beginning of the presentation. As a reminder, today's conference call contains certain projections and other forward-looking statements within the meaning of the U.S. and Canadian securities laws.

嗯，謝謝你，麗莎。大家下午好，感謝您加入我們的 CN 2023 年第一季度財務業績電話會議。在開始之前，我想提請您注意演示文稿開頭提供的前瞻性陳述和其他法律信息。提醒一下，今天的電話會議包含美國和加拿大證券法含義內的某些預測和其他前瞻性陳述。

These statements are subject to risks and uncertainties that may cause actual results to differ materially from those expressed or implied in these statements and are more fully described in our cautionary statement regarding forward-looking statements in our presentation. After the prepared remarks, we will conduct a Q&A session. I do want to remind you to please limit yourselves to 1 question. The IR team will be available after the call for any follow-up questions.

這些陳述受風險和不確定因素的影響，這些風險和不確定性可能導致實際結果與這些陳述中明示或暗示的結果存在重大差異，我們在演示文稿中關於前瞻性陳述的警示性聲明中有更全面的描述。在準備好的發言後，我們將進行問答環節。我確實想提醒您，請將自己限制在 1 個問題內。 IR 團隊將在電話會議後提供任何後續問題。

Joining us on the call today are Tracy Robinson, our President and CEO; Doug MacDonald, our Chief Marketing Officer; Ghislain Houle, our Chief Financial Officer; and Ed Harris, our Chief Operating Officer. It is now my pleasure to turn the call over to CN's President and Chief Executive Officer, Tracy Robinson.

今天與我們一起參加電話會議的是我們的總裁兼首席執行官 Tracy Robinson；我們的首席營銷官 Doug MacDonald； Ghislain Houle，我們的首席財務官；和我們的首席運營官 Ed Harris。現在我很高興將電話轉交給 CN 的總裁兼首席執行官特雷西羅賓遜。

(foreign language) Welcome to CN's Q1 earnings call. We very much appreciate you joining us today. Now before I get into the Q1 highlights, let me just make a few comments on some recent developments. Firstly, I'm really excited to announce that CN with UP and the GMXT are launching a new transformational premium intermodal service that connects Mexico, the U.S. and Canada. Now this is a steel wheel interchange service that leverages the best of our 3 networks and creates the most direct route and the fastest transit times between Canada and Mexico. It will provide our intermodal customers with the efficiency of bigger payloads and most importantly, the ability to accelerate the shift of truck business to rail.

（外語）歡迎來到 CN 第一季度財報電話會議。我們非常感謝您今天加入我們。現在，在我進入第一季度的亮點之前，讓我對最近的一些發展發表一些評論。首先，我非常高興地宣布，CN with UP 和 GMXT 正在推出一項連接墨西哥、美國和加拿大的全新轉型優質多式聯運服務。現在，這是一項鋼輪互換服務，它充分利用了我們 3 個網絡中的最佳網絡，並在加拿大和墨西哥之間創造了最直接的路線和最快的運輸時間。它將為我們的多式聯運客戶提供更大有效載荷的效率，最重要的是，能夠加速卡車業務向鐵路的轉移。

And it's also an example of how we can collaborate to create the next level of service offerings for our customers. We're going to continue to work to create more of these creative and collaborative arrangements that will support our customers' ability to get to new markets or to their current markets but faster and more efficiently. I'm also happy to announce that we have reached a tentative agreement in Canada with the (technical difficulty) covering approximately 6,000 CN locomotive engineers, conductors -- yard conductors and yard coordinators.

這也是我們如何合作為我們的客戶創造更高水平服務產品的一個例子。我們將繼續努力創造更多這樣的創造性和協作安排，以支持我們的客戶更快、更有效地進入新市場或進入他們當前市場的能力。我也很高興地宣布，我們已經在加拿大與（技術困難）達成了一項臨時協議，涉及約 6,000 名 CN 機車工程師、指揮——調車場指揮和調車場協調員。

Now this agreement is subject to ratification by the TCRC membership. So we are unable to provide any details at this time. But I will say that we appreciate the work the union leadership has done with us to reach this agreement. And finally, I want to make just a couple of comments on safety. The safe movement of all goods through the communities we serve across North America has never been more front of mind. Now this industry and our company have made tremendous progress on improving the safety of our operations over the past decades, and we're all working towards reducing and ultimately eliminating harm, both injuries and incidents, and ensuring that we protect the communities, there are communities in which we operate and in which we live.

現在該協議有待 TCRC 成員批准。所以我們目前無法提供任何細節。但我要說的是，我們感謝工會領導層為達成這項協議所做的工作。最後，我想就安全問題發表幾點評論。所有貨物通過我們在北美服務的社區的安全運輸從未像現在這樣成為人們關注的焦點。現在這個行業和我們公司在過去幾十年中在提高我們運營的安全性方面取得了巨大進步，我們都在努力減少並最終消除傷害，包括傷害和事故，並確保我們保護社區，有我們運營和生活的社區。

There has and continues to be considerable investments in technology and training and advancing leadership and culture. We're not yet to 0 as an industry, but we're making progress. And I am proud of the way the industry is coming together to advance together. Now after the derailment in Ohio earlier this year, all the Class 1s convened put all of our respective technology and protocols on wayside detection on the table. And we, together, use that to develop new voluntary standards for our industry and for wayside detection, and each of us is in the process of implementing to those standards.

在技術和培訓以及提升領導力和文化方面已經並將繼續進行大量投資。作為一個行業，我們還沒有達到 0，但我們正在取得進展。我為這個行業走到一起共同進步的方式感到自豪。現在，在今年早些時候俄亥俄州出軌事故之後，所有 1 級人員都召開會議，將我們各自的所有技術和協議放在桌面上進行路邊檢測。我們一起使用它來為我們的行業和路邊檢測制定新的自願標準，我們每個人都在實施這些標準。

Now our regulators can and they should be positive partners in this effort, and they will be as long as there is a fact-based data-driven approach that connects potential solutions with root causes. And if we apply all the wrong solutions, we'll not only fail to make the necessary gains in safety outcomes, we run the risk of unintended consequences that impair the performance of our supply chains.

現在我們的監管機構可以而且他們應該成為這項工作的積極合作夥伴，只要有基於事實的數據驅動方法將潛在解決方案與根本原因聯繫起來，他們就會成為積極的合作夥伴。如果我們應用了所有錯誤的解決方案，我們不僅無法在安全成果方面取得必要的成果，而且還會冒著損害我們供應鏈績效的意外後果的風險。

And on that note, I'm pleased to report that at CN, as of yesterday, we've achieved 838 days without a fatality and 650 days without a serious injury. These are the longest periods in CN history, and I think it's proof that 0 is possible. Now Ed is going to provide a little more information today on our progress on safety.

在這一點上，我很高興地向 CN 報告，截至昨天，我們已經實現了 838 天無死亡和 650 天無重傷。這是 CN 歷史上最長的時期，我認為這證明了 0 是可能的。現在，Ed 今天將提供更多關於我們在安全方面取得的進展的信息。

So let's get into the quarter. I want to first thank all of our CN employees for their dedication and their hard work to deliver some pretty solid performance. Let me highlight a few key points. Diluted EPS is a Q1 record. It was up 38% on an adjusted basis. Revenues were up 16% as we moved 6% more volumes more efficiently. The operating ratio was 61.5%, an improvement of 510 basis points on an adjusted basis and the lowest Q1 at CN since 2016.

那麼讓我們進入這個季度。我首先要感謝我們所有的 CN 員工，感謝他們的奉獻精神和辛勤工作，以提供一些非常可靠的業績。讓我強調幾個要點。稀釋每股收益是第一季度的記錄。在調整後的基礎上上漲了 38%。收入增長了 16%，因為我們的運輸量提高了 6%。營業率為 61.5%，調整後提高 510 個基點，是 CN 自 2016 年以來的最低第一季度。

We're continuing to deliver on our goal of driving the top line to the bottom line. We remain focused on the disciplined execution of our operating model. And on the basis of a strong first quarter, we're updating our financial outlook, and we now expect to deliver 2023 EPS growth in the mid-single-digit range, up from low single digit previously. Now it's important to note that our views on the economy haven't changed. Our current volumes reflect that we are in a mild recession, and we're uncertain about how deep or how long it will go on. But what we're modeling is negative North American industrial production for the full year. We've been through this before. The industry has been through this before and will come out of it.

我們將繼續實現將頂線推向底線的目標。我們仍然專注於嚴格執行我們的運營模式。在強勁的第一季度的基礎上，我們正在更新我們的財務前景，我們現在預計 2023 年每股收益增長將在中個位數範圍內，高於之前的低個位數。現在需要注意的是，我們對經濟的看法沒有改變。我們目前的交易量反映出我們正處於溫和的衰退之中，我們不確定它會持續多深或持續多長時間。但我們正在建模的是全年北美工業生產為負。我們以前經歷過這個。該行業之前已經經歷過這種情況，並且將會擺脫這種情況。

We're going to stay focused on our scheduled operating plan. Ed is going to take you through what we're doing currently and to adjust to current volumes. We're not going to make the mistakes of the past. We will maintain our workforce and our capital plan. We will have less margin leverage as long as the volumes remain soft and more volume -- margin leverage once the more normalized volumes return. We'll be ready when that happens and as the economy lifts. Now I'm very pleased with the work of Ed and the operating team.

我們將繼續專注於我們預定的運營計劃。 Ed 將帶您了解我們目前正在做的事情，並根據當前的數量進行調整。我們不會重蹈過去的覆轍。我們將維持我們的員工隊伍和我們的資本計劃。只要交易量保持疲軟，我們的保證金槓桿就會減少，而交易量會增加——一旦更正常化的交易量恢復，我們就會有保證金槓桿。當這種情況發生時，隨著經濟的好轉，我們會做好準備。現在我對 Ed 和運營團隊的工作非常滿意。

And while the winter was milder in Q1 compared to last year, it was more of a normal winter. Our scheduled operation proved its worth as we demonstrated resiliency, recovering much more quickly from the winter challenges that were thrown away. And we delivered for our customers. Ed's going to provide you in a little more detail, but let me highlight our Origin on -- our Origin train performance with 86%, reflecting our continued disciplined execution of our operating plan. And Doug and the marketing team delivered a pretty strong top line performance. Our commercial team remains in close contact with our customers. And Doug is going to give you a few more details on drivers of growth in Q1 and what we expect as we look forward to the remainder of the year.

雖然與去年相比，第一季度的冬天更溫和，但更像是一個正常的冬天。我們的預定行動證明了它的價值，因為我們展示了彈性，從被拋棄的冬季挑戰中更快地恢復過來。我們為我們的客戶交付。 Ed 將為您提供更多細節，但讓我強調一下我們的 Origin——我們的 Origin 列車性能為 86%，反映了我們繼續嚴格執行我們的運營計劃。道格和營銷團隊取得了相當強勁的頂線業績。我們的商業團隊與客戶保持密切聯繫。 Doug 將為您提供更多有關第一季度增長驅動因素的詳細信息，以及我們對今年剩餘時間的預期。

Ghislain will get into the details of our solid financial performance in Q1, which is driving our updated financial outlook. So let's go, Ed, over to you.

Ghislain 將詳細介紹我們第一季度穩健的財務業績，這推動了我們更新的財務前景。所以我們走吧，埃德，交給你了。

Thank you, Tracy. Let me start off by thanking all the CN employees that helped deliver a solid performance in quarter 1. This team is delivering on expectations, and I knew from the time I came back to this organization that they had the muscle memory to take CN back into a leadership position. This past winter was milder than the last year with about 45% of the days in the first quarter of this year facing some type of tier restriction in train length versus 65% last year. We still experience some periods of extreme cold that impacted our ability to operate the railroad as efficiently as expected.

謝謝你，特蕾西。首先，我要感謝所有幫助 CN 員工在第一季度取得穩定業績的員工。這個團隊正在實現預期，從我回到這個組織的那一刻起，我就知道他們有足夠的記憶力將 CN 帶回一個領導職位。去年冬天比去年溫和，今年第一季度約有 45% 的天數面臨某種類型的列車長度限制，而去年這一比例為 65%。我們仍然經歷了一些極端寒冷的時期，這影響了我們按預期高效運營鐵路的能力。

What impressed me the most was our ability to recover from these events, demonstrating the resiliency of this network and our ability to serve our customers, despite facing these challenges. As I said last quarter, railroading needs to remain simple. And we have continued our focus on running a scheduled operating plan, which drives the velocity and creates capacity. This provides a level of service that Doug can sell to his customers.

給我印象最深的是我們從這些事件中恢復的能力，展示了該網絡的彈性和我們為客戶提供服務的能力，儘管面臨這些挑戰。正如我上個季度所說，鐵路運輸需要保持簡單。我們繼續專注於運行預定的運營計劃，以提高速度並創造容量。這提供了 Doug 可以賣給客戶的服務水平。

Let me highlight a few key operating metrics for the first quarter. I also want to echo that Tracy mentioned on safety. We are all committed to move the North American economy, and our goal is to make sure all employees get back home safe in a safe manner. I'm very proud of our safety performance with our injury frequency down 17% in this quarter and our accident rate down 41%. Car velocity averaged 211 miles per day in the first quarter, up nearly 30% from first quarter last year. This is the best first quarter car velocity performance since 2017.

讓我重點介紹第一季度的幾個關鍵運營指標。我還想附和特雷西提到的安全問題。我們都致力於推動北美經濟，我們的目標是確保所有員工安全回家。我對我們的安全表現感到非常自豪，本季度我們的工傷頻率下降了 17%，事故率下降了 41%。第一季度汽車平均速度為每天 211 英里，比去年第一季度增長近 30%。這是自 2017 年以來最好的第一季度汽車速度表現。

Origin train performance averaged 86% in the first quarter, up 62% from the first quarter last year. This performance is on the back of moving 6% more volumes in terms of RTMs in the quarter, including 90% more Canadian grain. To highlight the strength of the operating model, we moved this additional volume in the first quarter with nearly 15,000 less cars on the network. We continue to drive our sustainability agenda with fuel efficiency up 1% on a year-over-year basis as we continue to lead the industry on that front. As we look forward, our goal is to drive continuous improvement on the operating model.

第一季度始發列車的性能平均為 86%，比去年第一季度增長 62%。這一表現是由於本季度 RTM 的銷量增加了 6%，其中包括 90% 的加拿大穀物。為了突出運營模式的優勢，我們在第一季度移動了這一額外數量，網絡上的汽車減少了近 15,000 輛。隨著我們繼續在這方面引領行業，我們繼續推動我們的可持續發展議程，燃油效率同比提高 1%。展望未來，我們的目標是推動運營模式的持續改進。

We have done a lot of heavy lifting since April of last year when we reverted back to running a scheduled railroad. So we are starting to lap those early changes. We will continue to drive efficiencies, but improvements will be similar, will be smaller and being smaller increments, excuse me. As we have exited the winter and with volume softening, given the uncertain economic environment, we are taking the opportunity to look at reducing train starts and also going after train length, all while adapting to the recent Canadian Work/Rest rules on top of our already working agreement.

自去年 4 月我們恢復運行定期鐵路以來，我們做了很多繁重的工作。因此，我們開始應對這些早期變化。我們將繼續提高效率，但改進將是相似的，會更小，增量更小，對不起。由於我們已經度過了冬季，並且由於經濟環境的不確定性，客運量有所下降，我們正藉此機會考慮減少列車發車次數並減少列車長度，同時在我們的基礎上適應最近的加拿大工作/休息規則已經工作的協議。

As weather warms, so should our performance, not only in train operations, but also safety. Warmer climate equates to velocity, and this creates capacity, which we will quickly convert to efficient capital work blocks that will be built into our scheduled operating plan. As I mentioned in my opening comments, I'm very pleased about how the operating team has been performing over the past year, and we still have more to do.

隨著天氣變暖，我們的表現也應該如此，不僅是在列車運營方面，還有安全方面。氣候變暖等同於速度，這創造了容量，我們將迅速將其轉化為高效的資本工作塊，這些工作塊將被納入我們的預定運營計劃。正如我在開場白中提到的，我對運營團隊在過去一年中的表現感到非常高興，我們還有更多工作要做。

Many of you on the call will have the opportunity to interact with the operating folks next week at our Investor Day in Chicago, and I'm looking forward to seeing many of you there as well. With that, I'll pass it on to Doug to discuss top line performance and outlook.

你們中的許多人將有機會在下週的芝加哥投資者日與運營人員互動，我也期待著在那裡見到你們中的許多人。有了這個，我會把它傳遞給道格來討論頂線性能和前景。

Thanks, Ed. I wanted to take this opportunity to thank you and your team for running a fluid and efficient operation as well as demonstrating resiliency against the winter conditions. We were able to deliver on our promise to better serve our customers and help them grow in their markets, a true collaborative effort.

謝謝，埃德。我想藉此機會感謝您和您的團隊進行流暢高效的運營，並展示了抵禦冬季條件的彈性。我們能夠兌現我們的承諾，更好地服務我們的客戶並幫助他們在他們的市場中成長，這是一項真正的協作努力。

I'll now turn to Slide 9 and provide a review of our solid first quarter top line performance. First quarter record revenues were $4.3 billion, up 16% over Q1 of last year on 6% higher RTMs and led by the bulk segment. Canadian grain was the biggest driver of growth in Q1, nearly doubling our volumes versus last year, including an all-time tonnage record in February. We are delivering for our grain customers, averaging 90% spotting performance over the current crop year and in line with our target.

我現在將轉到幻燈片 9，回顧一下我們第一季度穩健的營收表現。第一季度創紀錄的收入為 43 億美元，比去年第一季度增長 16%，RTM 增長 6%，主要是散貨業務。加拿大穀物是第一季度增長的最大推動力，與去年相比幾乎翻了一番，其中包括 2 月份的歷史噸位記錄。我們正在為我們的穀物客戶提供服務，在當前作物年度平均發現 90% 的性能並且符合我們的目標。

We did pull forward some of the Canadian grain into Q1, which will impact volumes in Q2, but we continue to engage with our customers to refine our demand outlook through the summer and in advance of next harvest. Coal demand remained solid through the first quarter with a favorable commodity pricing environment and strong commitments from our customers. Strong frac sand volumes reflected a favorable market environment, supporting an uptick in Western Canadian drilling activity. Automotive continued to be a bright spot for the quarter as inventory replenishment persisted across the industry.

我們確實將一些加拿大穀物提前到第一季度，這將影響第二季度的產量，但我們將繼續與客戶接觸，以在整個夏季和下一次收穫之前完善我們的需求前景。由於有利的商品定價環境和我們客戶的堅定承諾，煤炭需求在第一季度保持穩定。強勁的壓裂砂產量反映了有利的市場環境，支持了加拿大西部鑽井活動的增加。汽車行業繼續成為本季度的亮點，因為整個行業都在持續補充庫存。

We did, however, see continued weakness in other segments. A softening in international intermodal across all of our gateways reflected the inventory correction that is taking place throughout North America. Domestic volumes held up during most of the quarter, but have more recently started to turn negative. Petroleum and chemicals volumes remained under pressure with reductions in refined products as well as lower chemicals and plastics used as inputs into manufacturing, both reflecting general economic weakness.

然而，我們確實看到其他領域的持續疲軟。我們所有門戶的國際聯運疲軟反映了整個北美正在發生的庫存調整。國內銷量在本季度的大部分時間裡保持不變，但最近開始轉為負值。由於精煉產品減少以及用作製造業投入的化學品和塑料減少，石油和化學品的銷量仍然面臨壓力，這都反映了總體經濟疲軟。

Lumber shipments decreased only slightly, despite depressed housing indicators, rising interest rates, low commodity prices and extended mill curtailments, particularly in British Columbia. Volumes were steady due to the home renovation market doing better than expected.

儘管住房指標低迷、利率上升、大宗商品價格低迷且工廠停產時間延長，尤其是在不列顛哥倫比亞省，但木材出貨量僅略有下降。由於家庭裝修市場表現好於預期，成交量穩定。

Turning to Slide 10. Let me take a few minutes to talk about our top line outlook for the balance of the year. We are still assuming North American industrial production to be negative in 2023, but remain confident that we will outperform this from a volume perspective. While Q1 volumes were strong, we are seeing some softness in certain markets right now, and this is reflected in our April volume so far. On the positive side, our bulk segment remains solid. Canadian grain demand will start to lower as we head into the planting season, and we are anticipating an average crop for 2023, 2024 crop year.

轉到幻燈片 10。讓我花幾分鐘時間談談我們對今年餘下時間的頂線展望。我們仍然假設北美工業生產在 2023 年為負，但仍然有信心從產量的角度來看我們將超越這一水平。雖然第一季度銷量強勁，但我們目前看到某些市場有些疲軟，這反映在我們 4 月份的銷量中。從積極的方面來看，我們的散貨業務仍然穩健。隨著我們進入播種季節，加拿大穀物需求將開始下降，我們預計 2023 年和 2024 年的作物年平均收成。

Canadian metallurgical coal demand is expected to continue its strong pace with solid operational execution for at least Q2. Automotive continues to outperform with strong sales and dealer inventory levels below historical levels. Most other markets remain uncertain, given a weakening economy. International intermodal is expected to have multiple blank sailings in Q2 and Q3 remains uncertain with North American inventory levels still high. Domestic retail volumes are softening due to the mild recession.

至少在第二季度，加拿大冶金煤需求預計將繼續保持強勁步伐，運營執行穩健。汽車繼續表現出色，銷售強勁，經銷商庫存水平低於歷史水平。鑑於經濟疲軟，大多數其他市場仍不確定。由於北美庫存水平仍然很高，預計國際聯運在第二季度和第三季度將出現多次停航。由於溫和的經濟衰退，國內零售量正在走軟。

Pricing is also under strain due to increasingly available truck capacity. Lumber remains uncertain as commodity prices are still at low levels and housing demand is still low due to elevated interest rates, despite a significant shortage of homes on the market. Petroleum and chemicals production is directly tied to the economy, so we expect demand to be soft for most of the year. One bright spot is our intermodal sectors, our recent announcement for a new service between Mexico and CN's network in Canada as well as Detroit.

由於卡車運力的增加，定價也面臨壓力。儘管市場上的房屋嚴重短缺，但由於大宗商品價格仍處於低位，且由於利率上升，住房需求仍然很低，因此木材仍不確定。石油和化學品生產與經濟直接相關，因此我們預計今年大部分時間需求都將疲軟。一個亮點是我們的多式聯運部門，我們最近宣佈在墨西哥和 CN 在加拿大以及底特律的網絡之間提供一項新服務。

Combining the best service in the industry provided by the FXE and UP, CN will now have the shortest routes and fastest service to all of its key markets. Layering this new service with our new EMP product with the UP and NS, CN's customers will have new actions to convert truck volumes to rail. To close, we are working closely with our customers to monitor the economic environment. As we run a scheduled railroad with a focus on velocity, we are driving solid customer service that will serve us well and position us to recover volumes when the economy recovers. With that, I'll pass it on to Ghislain.

結合 FXE 和 UP 提供的業內最佳服務，CN 現在將擁有通往其所有主要市場的最短路線和最快捷的服務。將這項新服務與我們帶有 UP 和 NS 的新 EMP 產品分層，CN 的客戶將採取新的行動將卡車運輸量轉換為鐵路運輸量。最後，我們正在與客戶密切合作以監測經濟環境。當我們運營一條專注於速度的定期鐵路時，我們正在推動可靠的客戶服務，這將為我們提供良好的服務，並使我們能夠在經濟復甦時恢復運量。有了這個，我會把它傳遞給 Ghislain。

(foreign language) I will talk to Slide 12 of the presentation, which will provide more visibility on our first quarter performance. These results again highlight the strength and resilience of our franchise as we delivered volume growth of 6% in terms of RTMs and 16% revenue growth. The top line performance, combined with the strong operating performance, drove solid earnings in the quarter, and we delivered this with nearly 15,000 fewer cars on our network.

（外語）我將與演示文稿的幻燈片 12 交談，這將為我們第一季度的業績提供更多的可見性。這些結果再次凸顯了我們特許經營權的實力和彈性，因為我們在 RTM 方面實現了 6% 的銷量增長和 16% 的收入增長。頂線業績與強勁的運營業績相結合，推動了本季度的穩健收益，我們實現了這一目標，網絡上的汽車減少了近 15,000 輛。

We had a favorable fuel surcharge lag in the quarter with fuel prices coming down. Let me provide you with some more details on the quarter, and I will speak to the adjusted numbers, which exclude advisory costs related to shareholder matters in the first quarter of 2022, and I will talk to the variances on a constant currency basis. Labor expense was up around $40 million in the quarter versus last year, mostly driven by higher average headcount, mainly on the transportation side, which was partially offset by higher capital credits.

隨著燃油價格的下降，我們在本季度有一個有利的燃油附加費滯後。讓我為您提供有關本季度的更多詳細信息，我將談談調整後的數字，其中不包括 2022 年第一季度與股東事務相關的諮詢費用，我將談談按固定匯率計算的差異。本季度的勞動力支出比去年增加了約 4000 萬美元，這主要是由於平均員工人數增加，主要是在運輸方面，這部分被更高的資本信貸所抵消。

Purchased services and material expense was up by 8% versus last year, driven by higher material costs and increased outsourced services expense. We delivered record Q1 operating income of close to $1.7 billion, up 34% on an adjusted basis. Our operating ratio came in at 61.5%, which is 510 basis points lower than the adjusted operating ratio for the same period last year. Record Q1 diluted EPS of $1.82 for the quarter was up 38% versus last year on an adjusted basis.

受材料成本上漲和外包服務費用增加的推動，採購服務和材料費用比去年增加了 8%。我們實現了創紀錄的第一季度營業收入，接近 17 億美元，經調整後增長 34%。我們的營業率為 61.5%，比去年同期調整後的營業率低 510 個基點。在調整後的基礎上，本季度創紀錄的第一季度稀釋每股收益為 1.82 美元，比去年同期增長 38%。

We generated free cash flow of nearly $600 million in the first quarter. Under our current share repurchase program, which runs from February 1, 2023, through January 31, 2024, we have repurchased nearly 5 million shares for almost $800 million as of the end of March. Moving on to Slide 13, let me provide some visibility to 2023. While Q1 saw strong volume growth in the bulk segment, we continue to see weakness in certain consumer-driven segments like international intermodal, lumber and chemicals and plastics.

我們在第一季度產生了近 6 億美元的自由現金流。根據我們目前從 2023 年 2 月 1 日到 2024 年 1 月 31 日的股票回購計劃，截至 3 月底，我們已經以近 8 億美元的價格回購了近 500 萬股股票。轉到幻燈片 13，讓我提供一些到 2023 年的可見性。雖然第一季度散貨市場的銷量增長強勁，但我們繼續看到某些消費者驅動的市場疲軟，如國際聯運、木材、化學品和塑料。

We are still assuming a mild recession in 2023 with North American industrial production expected to decline. So far in April, volumes on an RTM basis are down about 6%, reflecting the weakness in the economy and some traffic that was pulled forward to Q1. Despite the current recessionary environment, we remain focused on running our railroad according to plan, providing reliable service to our customers and driving results to the bottom line. Considering our strong financial performance in Q1, we are updating our full year outlook and now expect to deliver mid-single-digit EPS growth in 2023 versus low single digit previously.

我們仍然假設 2023 年會出現溫和衰退，預計北美工業生產將下降。 4 月到目前為止，按 RTM 計算的交易量下降了約 6%，反映出經濟疲軟以及一些流量被提前到第一季度。儘管當前經濟不景氣，但我們仍然專注於按計劃運營鐵路，為客戶提供可靠的服務，並推動業績增長。考慮到我們在第一季度的強勁財務表現，我們正在更新我們的全年展望，現在預計 2023 年每股收益將實現中個位數增長，而此前為低個位數。

We remain committed to shareholder distributions and still expect a budget of about $4 billion for our current share repurchase program, which runs through January 31, 2024.

我們仍然致力於股東分配，並仍然預計我們當前的股票回購計劃的預算約為 40 億美元，該計劃將持續到 2024 年 1 月 31 日。

In conclusion, let me reiterate a few points. We delivered a strong first quarter performance as we continue to realize the benefits of offering a scheduled railroad with a focus on car velocity. We are witnessing continuing economic weakness, and we are still calling for a mild recession in 2023.

最後，讓我重申幾點。我們在第一季度表現強勁，因為我們繼續意識到提供專注於汽車速度的定期鐵路的好處。我們正在目睹經濟持續疲軟，我們仍然呼籲 2023 年出現溫和衰退。

Despite this weak economic environment, we are now guiding for mid-single-digit EPS growth for the year on the strength of our Q1 results, demonstrating the resilience of our franchise and the strength of our team. We have a strong balance sheet that provides us financial flexibility, and we will allocate our capital in a manner that drives long-term value for our shareholders. Let me pass it back to Tracy for some closing comments.

儘管經濟環境疲軟，但我們現在正指導今年 EPS 以中等個位數增長，憑藉我們第一季度的業績，展示了我們特許經營權的彈性和我們團隊的實力。我們擁有強大的資產負債表，可為我們提供財務靈活性，我們將以為股東創造長期價值的方式分配資本。讓我把它傳回給 Tracy，徵求一些結束意見。

Thanks, Ghislain. Now before we open up the line for questions, let me just highlight that we are holding our Investor Day in Chicago next week, May 2 and 3rd, and the presentations on May 3 will be webcast, and we hope many of you will be able to join us. So let's open the line for Q&A.

謝謝，吉斯蘭。現在，在我們開始提問之前，讓我先強調一下，我們將於下週，即 5 月 2 日和 3 日在芝加哥舉行投資者日，5 月 3 日的演講將進行網絡直播，我們希望你們中的許多人能夠加入我們。那麼讓我們打開問答熱線吧。

(Operator Instructions) The first question comes from Benoit Poirier with Desjardins.

（操作員說明）第一個問題來自 Desjardins 的 Benoit Poirier。

Congratulations for the strong start. Maybe my question, could you talk a little bit about your transformational partnership with UP and Grupo Mexico and the new Falcon premium service? And also if you could talk about the other partnerships that you're looking at?

祝賀你的強勢開局。也許我的問題是，你能談談你與 UP 和 Grupo Mexico 的轉型合作夥伴關係以及新的 Falcon 高級服務嗎？另外，您是否可以談談您正在尋找的其他合作夥伴關係？

Let me start that one off, Benoit, and then I'll hand it over to Doug for a little color on the Falcon service. We believe that the right way to service our customers is to be working with partners where that makes sense. And in this case, UP and FXE are a great example of that. We've been able to put together a product that offers considerable transit benefits and that helps them and it help get trucks off the road. There are other examples out there where we're doing -- we're looking to do the same types of things in a different market and more on that to come as we pull those together. Doug, do you want to make some comments on the new Falcon service?

讓我開始吧，Benoit，然後我會把它交給 Doug 來為 Falcon 服務做一點點顏色。我們相信，為客戶提供服務的正確方式是在有意義的情況下與合作夥伴合作。在這種情況下，UP 和 FXE 就是一個很好的例子。我們已經能夠組裝出一種產品，該產品可提供可觀的運輸優勢並幫助他們，並幫助卡車離開公路。我們正在做的還有其他例子——我們希望在不同的市場上做同樣類型的事情，而且當我們把它們整合在一起時，還會有更多的事情發生。 Doug，你想對新的 Falcon 服務發表一些評論嗎？

Yes. So thanks, Benoit. So one of the key things we try to do is take the best of what was available on the market. And when you look at today, the service with the FXE and the UP have been providing north and southbound from between Chicago and the markets in Mexico has been untouchable by anyone. It's been phenomenal. The customers rave about it. And now we've been able to combine with these 2 great companies to sit down and offer that same type of service with CN's service from Chicago into the Canadian network as well as into Detroit.

是的。所以謝謝，Benoit。因此，我們嘗試做的關鍵事情之一就是充分利用市場上可用的產品。當你看今天時，FXE 和 UP 的服務一直在芝加哥和墨西哥市場之間提供北向和南向服務，這是任何人都無法觸及的。這是驚人的。客戶對此贊不絕口。現在我們已經能夠與這兩家偉大的公司結合，坐下來提供與 CN 從芝加哥到加拿大網絡以及底特律的服務相同類型的服務。

So we're really looking forward to that. We know from doing a lot of historical work is that there's a minimum of 2 trains each direction that's moving over the road that we think we can go after by providing this service. So it will be a great thing to do, but it's going to take a while, and we're going to be working with our customers to do it, but we think we have the product to move forward.

所以我們真的很期待。我們從大量的歷史研究中了解到，我們認為通過提供這項服務我們可以在道路上行駛的每個方向至少有 2 列火車。所以這將是一件很棒的事情，但這需要一段時間，我們將與我們的客戶合作來做這件事，但我們認為我們擁有向前推進的產品。

Your next question comes from the line of Ken Hoexter with Bank of America.

你的下一個問題來自美國銀行的 Ken Hoexter。

And definitely concur great job on the quarter. So maybe just to follow up with Ed or Tracy, just laying on the outlook there. Moving to mid-single digits, has anything changed? Is this just kind of the flow through from first quarter? Is there anything that's changing in your outlook as you look in terms of the flow-through of the improved service performance? And is there -- I don't know if you want to talk about the fuel benefit that you got in the first quarter, if there's a flow-through on that? Just trying to understand what's changed and what the potential upside from this target?

並且絕對同意本季度的出色工作。所以也許只是跟進 Ed 或 Tracy，只是了解那裡的前景。移動到中個位數，有什麼變化嗎？這只是第一季度的流量嗎？從改善服務績效的流程來看，您的前景有什麼變化嗎？還有——我不知道你是否想談談你在第一季度獲得的燃料效益，如果有流動性的話？只是想了解發生了什麼變化以及該目標的潛在優勢是什麼？

Thanks, Ken. Listen, nothing has changed on our view of the year. Our guidance has been lifted based on some really strong performance in the first quarter. Ed's going to continue to focus on the next level of benefits from the scheduled operating plan. We have lapped now 1 year of introducing the scheduled operating plan. So the benefits year-over-year won't be as dramatic as they have over the last 4 quarters. And he's going to be focusing on driving -- making sure that the plan matches the new volume levels, and so these are some benefits on that.

謝謝，肯。聽著，我們對這一年的看法沒有任何改變。基於第一季度一些非常強勁的表現，我們的指導已經被取消。 Ed 將繼續關注預定運營計劃的下一級收益。我們推出預定的運營計劃到現在已經過去了 1 年。因此，同比收益不會像過去 4 個季度那樣顯著。他將專注於駕駛——確保計劃符合新的音量水平，因此這些是一些好處。

We are not, as I said in my remarks, going to overreact from a workforce perspective. So we will have less leverage until we get the volumes back on that front. But we're going to be focusing on delivering to our customers, keeping our plan and our execution stable and being ready for when we lift out of this. Ghislain, do you want to comment on the lag?

正如我在發言中所說，從勞動力的角度來看，我們不會反應過度。因此，在我們重新獲得這方面的銷量之前，我們的槓桿作用將減少。但我們將專注於為客戶提供服務，保持我們的計劃和執行穩定，並為我們擺脫困境做好準備。 Ghislain，你想評論滯後嗎？

On the lag -- absolutely. So as I said in my remarks, Ken, we did have the favorable lag this quarter. And to give you an order of magnitude, it's about $0.10 of EPS, and it helped the OR by about 130 basis points. .

在滯後 - 絕對。因此，正如我在發言中所說，肯，本季度我們確實有有利的滯後。給你一個數量級，每股收益約為 0.10 美元，它幫助 OR 提高了約 130 個基點。 .

Your next question comes from the line of Cheril Radbourne with TD Cowen.

您的下一個問題來自 Cheril Radbourne 與 TD Cowen 的合作。

Ed, I had one for you. I was hoping you could speak to some of the changes to the winter plan that were particularly impactful year-over-year? And just how comfortable you're feeling about being able to offset the impact of the new Canadian reg that you mentioned on Work/Rest and paid sick leaves with labor productivity?

埃德，我有一個給你。我希望你能談談冬季計劃的一些變化，這些變化與去年同期相比影響特別大？您對能夠抵消您提到的新加拿大法規對工作/休息和帶薪病假的影響與勞動生產率的影響有多舒服？

Well, let me take the easier one first. The bulk plan for Western Canada during the winter months went extremely well. We scheduled our bulk service between our regularly scheduled merchandise service. And don't forget, we control when we pull the train, when we spot the train and when we deliver the train. And that worked out very well for our metrics and what we needed to address with our shippers. So I think everybody was real pleased with our performance during the winter months and especially on the bulk side.

好吧，讓我先來個簡單的。冬季加拿大西部的批量計劃進行得非常順利。我們在定期安排的商品服務之間安排了批量服務。別忘了，我們控制何時拉動火車、何時發現火車以及何時交付火車。這對於我們的指標以及我們需要與托運人解決的問題非常有效。所以我認為每個人都對我們在冬季的表現非常滿意，尤其是在散貨方面。

It's a little premature for me to mention the impacts of the new Work/Rest rules. I will tell you this. We're already working on a scheduled operation. We're collaborating with our labor in regard to what we think would be best in what they want or what they would think would be best. So like anything else, we were successful in negotiating an agreement with the TCRC, and I really see no reason why we won't be successful in negotiating a good Work/Rest plan that fits within the Canadian government guidelines, and we'll be ready to go come May 25.

現在提及新工作/休息規則的影響還為時過早。我會告訴你這個。我們已經在進行預定的操作。我們正在與我們的勞工合作，討論我們認為他們想要什麼或他們認為最好的東西是最好的。因此，就像其他任何事情一樣，我們成功地與 TCRC 談判達成了一項協議，我真的認為我們沒有理由不能成功地談判符合加拿大政府指導方針的良好工作/休息計劃，我們將準備 5 月 25 日出發。

Your next question from Chris Wetherbee with Citigroup.

您的下一個問題來自花旗集團的 Chris Wetherbee。

I wanted to maybe focus on the sort of 2Q through 4Q period. So now that we have the first quarter done and it was obviously a really strong quarter and then the outlook has improved to mid-single-digit EPS growth. I guess you guys are calling for a mild recession. So maybe I just wanted to get a sense of what some of the underlying assumptions might be? How do we think about RTM growth? I know we're off to, I think, down 6 to which you mentioned here in the second quarter so far.

我可能想專注於 2Q 到 4Q 期間。所以現在我們已經完成了第一季度，這顯然是一個非常強勁的季度，然後前景已經改善到中個位數的每股收益增長。我猜你們是在呼籲溫和的衰退。所以也許我只是想了解一些潛在的假設是什麼？我們如何看待 RTM 增長？我知道，我認為，到目前為止，我們將下降到你在第二季度在這裡提到的 6。

But should we see sort of maybe a low to mid-single-digit decline in RTMs embedded in that sort of back 3 quarters of the year? And then can EPS be positive year-over-year during this period? Or is it a little bit harder to capture that leverage given that volume is going to be a little bit softer than what we've seen so far?

但是我們是否應該看到嵌入在今年後 3 個季度中的 RTM 可能出現低到中個位數的下降？那麼在此期間每股收益能否同比增長？還是考慮到交易量會比我們目前看到的要小一些，捕捉這種槓桿作用會更難一些嗎？

Yes. I think -- thanks, Chris, for the question. So I think, obviously, as you can see, we're still assuming a mild recession and assuming an industrial production that's negative. If you look at last consensus, it deteriorated actually from negative 1.3 to negative 1.4. So -- and we see it in volumes. I mean we currently believe that we are in our mild recession. I mean when you look at our volumes, as I said, they're down 6% on a month-to-date basis. So we're not going to guide on volumes going forward.

是的。我想——謝謝 Chris 提出的問題。所以我認為，很明顯，正如你所看到的，我們仍然假設溫和的衰退並假設工業生產為負。如果你看最後的共識，它實際上從負 1.3 惡化到負 1.4。所以——我們看到了它的數量。我的意思是，我們目前認為我們正處於溫和的衰退之中。我的意思是，正如我所說，當您查看我們的銷量時，它們從本月至今下降了 6%。所以我們不會指導未來的數量。

What we said was we're going to do a little bit better than industrial production. But clearly, we -- the way we've modeled this is, Q2 and Q3 will be in the recession, and we're assuming that we're getting more slowly but surely getting out of it by Q4. And in this, we're also assuming that we have a 3-year average grain crop -- Canadian grain crop, and this still needs to be called out as we speak, but that's what we're assuming.

我們說的是我們要做得比工業生產好一點。但很明顯，我們 - 我們建模的方式是，第二季度和第三季度將處於衰退之中，我們假設我們正在變得更慢但肯定會在第四季度擺脫它。在這方面，我們還假設我們有 3 年的平均糧食作物——加拿大糧食作物，在我們發言時仍然需要指出這一點，但這就是我們的假設。

Your next question comes from the line of Walter Spracklin with RBC Capital Markets.

您的下一個問題來自 Walter Spracklin 與 RBC Capital Markets 的合作。

So Tracy, when you first took over the role, you talked a little bit about rightsizing your I think you used the word curating your book of business, and that meant kind of shedding or watching some contracts move over to competitors. I'm getting a sense that that's done now. Is that correct? And are you -- is there any way you can measure or provide some KPIs, particularly for Falcon? Are there revenue targets that you have for that Falcon Premium service? Could we see wins coming out of Halifax now that you're starting new train service there? Rupert is doing very well. Just curious to see -- just to hear your perspective on how you move from that focus of curating the book of business to now growing the book of business?

所以特雷西，當你第一次接任這個角色時，你談到了一些關於調整你的我想你使用了策劃你的商業書籍這個詞，這意味著某種程度上脫落或看著一些合同轉移給競爭對手。我感覺現在已經完成了。那是對的嗎？您是否 - 有什麼方法可以衡量或提供一些 KPI，特別是對於 Falcon？您對 Falcon Premium 服務有收入目標嗎？既然你在那裡開始新的火車服務，我們能看到哈利法克斯的勝利嗎？魯珀特做得很好。只是想看看 - 只是想听聽您對如何從策劃商業書籍的重點轉向現在發展商業書籍的看法？

Thanks, Walter. Now let me first say that I continue to be impressed by the strength of CN's network. And as we came on, I think we had oversold a part of the network. And so that was the curate part. We've done that -- we had done that within a few months. And right now, the portfolio of business that we have fits, matches our operating plan. And there's a great degree of alignment between Ed and Doug and their teams so that as Doug is out, they're selling -- we're selling into that plant. And that's where that's the magic part, right? That allows Ed to run a really efficient operation, and he gives a very strong service level to Doug to go out and talk to our customers next.

謝謝，沃爾特。現在讓我先說，我繼續對CN網絡的強大印象深刻。當我們繼續前進時，我認為我們已經超賣了網絡的一部分。這就是策展部分。我們已經做到了——我們在幾個月內就做到了。現在，我們擁有的業務組合符合我們的運營計劃。 Ed 和 Doug 以及他們的團隊之間有很大程度的一致性，所以當 Doug 離開時，他們正在銷售——我們正在銷售到那個工廠。這就是神奇的部分，對吧？這讓 Ed 能夠真正高效地運營，他為 Doug 提供了非常高的服務水平，讓他接下來出去與我們的客戶交談。

So that level of curation is done. We're running -- doing an excellent job of running a strong plan and delivering to our customers. And as we think about the next level of growth, we'll think about it through that lens. I'm going to let Doug give you a little bit more color on the Falcon part of your question.

這樣就完成了該級別的管理。我們正在運行 - 在運行強大的計劃並交付給我們的客戶方面做得非常出色。當我們考慮下一個增長水平時，我們會通過這個鏡頭來考慮它。我將讓 Doug 在您問題的 Falcon 部分為您提供更多顏色。

Yes. So Walter, like the easy answer is, you're probably going to have to wait for Investor Day to get some real numbers. But we are looking forward to the new service starting up in May. We know from a transit time perspective that we will be between 6 and 8 days faster than our prior service, which is a dramatic for us. And outside of that, some of your questions around being ready, listen, we obviously have reduced service out of some of the ports today with the reduced volumes in international, but we still have all those crews and all the equipment ready to go as those service ramps up. So we're looking forward to the rebound, and we'll be ready to take it.

是的。所以沃爾特，就像簡單的答案一樣，你可能不得不等待投資者日才能得到一些真實的數字。但我們期待著 5 月份啟動的新服務。從運輸時間的角度來看，我們知道我們將比之前的服務快 6 到 8 天，這對我們來說是一個戲劇性的變化。除此之外，你的一些關於準備好的問題，聽著，我們今天顯然已經減少了一些港口的服務，因為國際貨運量減少了，但我們仍然有所有的船員和所有的設備準備就緒。服務增加。所以我們期待著反彈，我們會準備好迎接它。

Your next question comes from the line of Fadi Chamoun with BMO.

你的下一個問題來自 BMO 的 Fadi Chamoun 系列。

Congrats on the strong results here. I want to ask a question on the CP UP. I mean, on the CN UP [Felamax deal], how differentiated is this service when you think about it in the context of potentially single-line service by your competitor? What are kind of maybe the targeted market that you think you'll kind of have a stronger opportunities there?

祝賀這裡取得了很好的成績。我想問一個關於CP UP的問題。我的意思是，在 CN UP [Felamax 交易] 中，當您在競爭對手可能提供單線服務的背景下考慮這項服務時，它的差異化程度如何？你認為你在那裡會有更大機會的目標市場是什麼樣的？

So Fadi, it's a great question. So listen, we did a lot of research when we were attempting to buy the KCS. So we have a lot of -- we understand those markets really well. Like I said, there's roughly -- on a balanced basis, there's about 2 trains a day in each direction that are moving over the road and we're targeting that business. So we believe that with this service, we're going to have the best service actually between Mexico and Canada as well as into Detroit. And we'll be in a premium position to be able to pick up some of that off the road.

Fadi，這是一個很好的問題。所以聽著，當我們試圖購買 KCS 時，我們做了很多研究。所以我們有很多 - 我們非常了解這些市場。就像我說的，在平衡的基礎上，每天大約有 2 列火車在每個方向上行駛，我們的目標是這項業務。所以我們相信，通過這項服務，我們將在墨西哥和加拿大之間以及底特律之間提供最好的服務。我們將處於優勢地位，能夠在路上獲得其中的一些。

It doesn't matter what my competition does. We have a great product with this, and we think we're actually going to have the fastest service.

我的競爭對手做什麼並不重要。我們有一個很棒的產品，我們認為我們實際上將擁有最快的服務。

We'll take our next question from Tom Wadewitz with UBS.

我們將接受 Tom Wadewitz 和 UBS 的下一個問題。

Ed, I wanted to ask you a question on how you think the railroad can respond to weaker volumes just in terms of how you manage headcount? It seems like that equations may be different than it was for the rails in the past or potentially different. And I guess the other component maybe just -- are there some other things that we should be thinking about on the cost side that is kind of Phase 2 for you as you focus on how the network can run better? And obviously, you did -- done really well over the past year. So congratulations on that.

埃德，我想問你一個問題，你認為鐵路如何僅從你管理員工人數的角度來應對疲軟的銷量？似乎方程式可能與過去的軌道不同，或者可能不同。我想另一個組成部分可能只是 - 在您專注於網絡如何更好地運行時，我們是否應該在成本方面考慮其他一些事情，這對您來說是第 2 階段？顯然，你做到了——在過去的一年裡做得非常好。祝賀你。

Well, thanks for noticing, Tom. I can tell you, we'll be taking out expenses if indeed, the business does deteriorate a little bit. We're already looking at combining some train starts and working on what I call organic issues that need to be addressed. You'll hear more of those in Investor Day. I'll just give you a sample, equipment repairs and ensuring that our fleet is up to snuff across the board. The comment regarding what we can do in the long run here would be to work with our crew and our crew base to qualify current conductors into engineers will work strongly to make that happen over the quieter months, let's say, and we'll be better prepared for fall and winter this year.

嗯，謝謝你的關注，湯姆。我可以告訴你，如果業務確實惡化了一點，我們就會扣除費用。我們已經在考慮將一些列車啟動結合起來，並致力於解決我稱之為需要解決的有機問題。你會在投資者日聽到更多這樣的消息。我只會給你一個樣本，設備維修，並確保我們的艦隊全面達標。從長遠來看，關於我們在這裡可以做的事情的評論是與我們的船員和我們的船員基地合作，使現任指揮有資格成為工程師。為今年秋冬做準備。

Is it fair, though, to think that maybe headcount is less flexible than it was in the past? Or is that the wrong way to look at it?

不過，認為員工人數可能不如過去靈活，這公平嗎？或者這是錯誤的看待方式？

I don't -- I'm not that familiar with Canadian headcount in the past. I just live in today and in the future. I think we'll have as much flexibility as we'll need. Certainly, the Work/Rest rules, we'll have something to say about that. But I can tell you right now a small percentage of our force actually meets the requirement for mandatory rest. So we'll work within those means and those parameters, and we'll continue to deliver a very good operating model.

我不——我過去對加拿大的員工人數不太熟悉。我只是活在今天和未來。我認為我們將擁有所需的靈活性。當然，工作/休息規則，我們對此有話要說。但我現在可以告訴你，我們的部隊中有一小部分實際上符合強制休息的要求。因此，我們將在這些方式和參數範圍內開展工作，我們將繼續提供非常好的運營模式。

And Tom, I'll just add to that, Ed keeps reminding us of the attrition that we have. And so we're continuing to hire right now, even though we're in a lower volume environment, to offset that attrition and to make sure that we've got the right folks in place and trained up. It's very across the network where we struggled to keep them hire locations. And then Ed will take a look at where we need, as we said, to train them up in various different ways and how to use them in the interim.

湯姆，我還要補充一點，埃德一直提醒我們注意我們的減員。因此，即使我們處於低容量環境中，我們現在仍在繼續招聘，以抵消這種人員流失，並確保我們有合適的人員到位並接受培訓。它遍布整個網絡，我們努力讓他們保留僱用地點。然後，正如我們所說，Ed 將看看我們需要在哪些方面以各種不同的方式對他們進行培訓，以及如何在此期間使用他們。

Ultimately is we see -- if we get really concerned about workforce and volumes, we have the lever to be able to stop hiring. We don't see that just yet, but we'll continue to take a look at when the right time for that might be.

最終我們看到——如果我們真的關心勞動力和數量，我們就有能力停止招聘。我們還沒有看到，但我們會繼續看看什麼時候是合適的時間。

Your next question comes from Scott Group with Wolfe Research.

您的下一個問題來自 Scott Group 和 Wolfe Research。

I had a question on pricing. So we've had some really strong pricing yields over the last few quarters. Any change in same-store pricing in a weaker volume environment? Any color on just trends you're seeing? And then Ghislain, I know you talked about the fuel lag tailwind in Q1. Does that just sort of lap itself and just go away? Or does that actually become a headwind going forward as you think about the rest of the year?

我對定價有疑問。因此，在過去幾個季度中，我們的定價收益率非常強勁。在銷量較弱的環境下，同店定價有何變化？你看到的趨勢有什麼顏色嗎？然後 Ghislain，我知道你談到了第一季度的燃料滯後順風。這是否只是繞了一圈然後就消失了？還是當您考慮今年剩餘時間時，這實際上會成為前進的逆風？

So thanks, Scott, it's Doug. I'll take it on the pricing side. So listen, on the carload side, we're still seeing great service and great demand or at least flat demand. So guess what, I think we still have a very good pricing momentum moving forward. We're still repricing business. Like I said, about 1/3 of our business comes up every year. So I think we're still in really good shape there. There is more pressure on the domestic intermodal just strictly because there's capacity out there in the market now, but we have a lot of contracts in place with our customer base. We don't see a lot of change right now in that area.

所以謝謝，斯科特，我是道格。我會在定價方面接受它。所以聽著，在整車方面，我們仍然看到優質的服務和巨大的需求，或者至少是持平的需求。所以你猜怎麼著，我認為我們仍然有很好的定價勢頭。我們仍在重新定價業務。就像我說的，我們每年大約有 1/3 的業務出現。所以我認為我們在那裡仍然處於非常好的狀態。嚴格來說，國內多式聯運的壓力更大，因為現在市場上有容量，但我們與客戶群簽訂了很多合同。我們目前在該領域看不到太多變化。

And Scott, maybe on fuel. When you look at the -- so fuel lag, we have a lot of noise in a given quarter. But when you look at it over the year, if you look at fuel surcharge, where it will be and our fuel expenses, I think it's not a headwind and it's not a tailwind. It's about -- it's a flat impact over the 2023 on a net-net basis.

還有斯科特，也許是在加油。當你看 - 所以燃料滯後，我們在給定的季度有很多噪音。但是當你回顧一年的時間，如果你看看燃油附加費，它會在哪里以及我們的燃油費用，我認為這不是逆風，也不是順風。它是關於 - 它對 2023 年的淨影響持平。

We'll take our next question from Konark Gupta with Scotia Bank.

我們將從豐業銀行的科納克·古普塔 (Konark Gupta) 那裡回答下一個問題。

My question is for Ed. Ed, how much additional capacity do you think the scheduled operations and improved car velocity bring to the network? And how are you guys going to market that new capacity?

我的問題是給埃德的。 Ed，您認為預定的運營和提高的汽車速度會給網絡帶來多少額外容量？你們打算如何推銷這種新產能？

Well, I can't give you an exact percentage, but I can tell you the faster we are, the more capacity we create, and our ability to reduce our car fleet has paid a lot of dividend across the operation of this railroad.

好吧，我不能給你一個確切的百分比，但我可以告訴你我們越快，我們創造的容量就越大，我們減少車隊的能力已經在這條鐵路的運營中帶來了很多紅利。

Your next question comes from the line of David Vernon with Bernstein.

你的下一個問題來自 David Vernon 與 Bernstein 的對話。

I was just wondering if you could talk a little bit more about the grain outlook as we end to -- get into the second half of the year? I know there were some early concerns. I think the last time I caught up with the team around maybe the crop, you're ending a little bit early just because we kind of had such a difficult comp. How does the grain sort of -- how should we think about grain volumes quarter-to-quarter as we get through the rest of this year?

我只是想知道，在我們即將進入下半年之際，您是否可以多談談穀物前景？我知道有一些早期的擔憂。我想上次我可能是在收成的時候趕上了團隊，你結束得早了一點，因為我們的陣容有點困難。在今年餘下的時間裡，穀物的種類——我們應該如何考慮每季度的穀物產量？

Okay. So good question, Dave. We have the same type of question from our Board today. So listen, on the Canadian side, we're dipping into that area where how much is left in the country and how much do the farmers want to keep back to sell in the summer. So it will all be a function of pricing more than anything else, not real pricing, but actually what price they can sell it for in the market. on whether they keep selling and probably have a very low summer or they're going to sell more evenly until the next crop comes in.

好的。問得好，戴夫。今天我們的董事會提出了同樣類型的問題。所以聽著，在加拿大方面，我們正在深入了解該國還剩下多少以及農民想保留多少以在夏季出售。因此，這一切都將取決於定價而不是其他任何東西，不是真正的定價，而是他們可以在市場上以什麼價格出售它。關於他們是否繼續銷售並且夏季可能非常低，或者他們會更均勻地銷售直到下一季作物到來。

So we don't know, but all we know is because we had a very low last year, we're still going to have good corps this year on the Canadian side. On the U.S. side, obviously, we're lapping a great H1 in 2022, like we had a record. So we're going to be a little bit lower, but we still had a great Q1, and we're seeing decent volumes in Q2. There's still quite a bit of crop there to move in the U.S. So we figure that will just be a normal crop for us.

所以我們不知道，但我們所知道的是因為去年我們的表現很低，今年我們在加拿大方面仍然會有很好的團隊。顯然，在美國方面，我們將在 2022 年取得出色的 H1，就像我們創造了記錄一樣。所以我們會稍微低一點，但我們仍然有一個很好的第一季度，我們在第二季度看到了不錯的數量。美國還有相當多的作物需要運往那裡，所以我們認為這對我們來說只是一種正常的作物。

And just as a follow-up, maybe as you think about the moisture and all the stuff that you guys get into the weeds on pun intended, how are you guys thinking about the setup for second half?

作為後續行動，也許當你想到水分和你們進入雜草的所有東西時，你們是如何考慮下半場的設置的？

So in the Canadian side, moisture content is very good in the prairies right now, probably a little bit too much snow. But recently, over the last storms over the last couple of weeks, but much better than Manitoba was last year where they were flooded out almost, and they still had a good crop. It's amazing what the science can do these days with respect to growing crops in, I'll say, wet soil.

所以在加拿大這邊，現在大草原的水分含量非常好，可能是積雪太多了。但最近，在過去幾週的最後一場風暴中，但比去年幾乎被洪水淹沒的馬尼托巴要好得多，而且他們的收成仍然很好。令人驚奇的是，如今科學在我要說的潮濕土壤中種植農作物方面所能做的事情。

So we're expecting still the average crop in Canada, and the U.S. crop is now seeing a recovery with the amount of water that they have had, where the Mississippi dried up, they had a lot of, I'll say, tough areas last year, not on CN territories, but the others. And right now, they're expecting to have a normal crop as well in the U.S.

所以我們預計加拿大的收成仍然是平均水平，而美國的收成現在正在恢復，因為他們擁有的水量，密西西比河乾涸的地方，他們有很多，我會說，艱難的地區去年，不是在 CN 領土上，而是在其他地區。而現在，他們預計美國的收成也會正常。

Your next question comes from the line of Brian Ossenbeck with JPMorgan.

你的下一個問題來自摩根大通的 Brian Ossenbeck。

Just to follow up on Canadian grain. Maybe, Doug, can you give us a sense of where pricing is headed for the '23 and '24 Canadian grain crop? I think the VRCPI is actually due here perhaps in next week or so. Is fuel going to be as big as swing factors we've seen more recently? And then just maybe, Ghislain, if you can clarify if that $100 million headwind for some of the Work/Rest and time off is still in the guidance or if that's a little bit to be determined as you work through some of these agreements?

只是為了跟進加拿大的穀物。也許，道格，你能告訴我們 23 年和 24 年加拿大糧食作物的定價走向嗎？我認為 VRCPI 實際上可能會在下週左右到期。燃料是否會像我們最近看到的搖擺因素一樣大？然後也許，Ghislain，如果你能澄清一些工作/休息和休假的 1 億美元逆風是否仍在指導中，或者在你完成這些協議的過程中是否有一點需要確定？

Thanks, Brian. So I'll start off on the -- listen, on the Canadian grain crop, I think it's a big black box with the federal government on how this thing gets done. But what we're forecasting is just roughly a 2% price increase for the next upcoming crop year. We'll see at the same time you guys will. So we're looking forward to, we think it should be positive, and there might be some upside there.

謝謝，布萊恩。所以我將從——聽著，關於加拿大的糧食作物，我認為這是一個關於聯邦政府如何完成這件事的大黑匣子。但我們預測下一個即將到來的農作物年價格僅上漲約 2%。我們會在同一時間看到你們。所以我們很期待，我們認為它應該是積極的，並且可能會有一些上行空間。

Yes. And on the work/rest rules and paid sick days, yes, we're still assuming a worst-case scenario about $100 million, we'll see. Ed is starting to work hard on the scheduling. This starting the new work/rest rule in May. So it hasn't started yet. So we'll see, but we're going to work hard to try to offset some of the work -- new rest rules. The paid sick days is a cost because people have taken those days. We didn't pay them before, now we pay so that's a pure cost. But I think, hopefully, there's some room here to be able to offset some of the new work/rest rules going forward.

是的。在工作/休息規則和帶薪病假方面，是的，我們仍然假設最壞的情況約為 1 億美元，我們拭目以待。埃德開始努力安排時間。這將在 5 月開始新的工作/休息規則。所以還沒有開始。所以我們拭目以待，但我們將努力工作以嘗試抵消一些工作——新的休息規則。帶薪病假是一種成本，因為人們已經休完病假。我們以前不付錢給他們，現在我們付錢，所以這是純成本。但我認為，希望這裡有一些空間可以抵消未來的一些新的工作/休息規則。

Your next question comes from Amit Mehrotra with Deutsche Bank.

你的下一個問題來自德意志銀行的 Amit Mehrotra。

Ghislain, just on the profitability question earlier, do you think first quarter is going to represent kind of the high watermark on operating ratio as it typically does because of the weather? I know weather was less incremental in the first quarter, but can you just talk about kind of the cadence because I know, obviously, you're forecasting a mild recession or we're in a mild recession. So just not sure if that impacts operating ratio versus where you were in the first quarter?

Ghislain，就剛才關於盈利能力的問題而言，您是否認為第一季度將代表運營比率的高水位線，因為它通常會因為天氣而出現？我知道第一季度的天氣變化不大，但你能不能談談節奏，因為我知道，很明顯，你預測的是溫和的衰退，或者我們正處於溫和的衰退中。所以不確定這是否會影響運營比率與第一季度的水平？

And then Tracy, Investor Day, obviously coming up next week, very much looking forward to that. But I was hoping you'd help us calibrate some of our expectations. I assume it's going to be an event about growth and kind of setting the stage for the next several years of growth. But along with that, should we be expecting kind of multiyear earnings targets, operation? I mean anything to sort of help us calibrate some of our expectations as we head out there next week.

然後特雷西，投資者日，顯然下週就要來了，非常期待。但我希望你能幫助我們調整我們的一些期望。我認為這將是一個關於增長的事件，並為未來幾年的增長奠定基礎。但除此之外，我們是否應該期待多年的盈利目標、運營？我的意思是在我們下週前往那裡時幫助我們調整一些期望。

So maybe I can start with the OR. So typically, we don't guide on OR for 2023. But to your question, in Q1, typically in the winter, OR is just seasonality higher because of the winter, because fuel expenses typically are higher, et cetera, et cetera. So it's typically higher. And -- but we don't guide on OR. What we have said to the market, and we're committed to that is we're going to work to improve our margins. Now obviously, that makes it harder to do in a low volume environment than in a higher volume environment.

所以也許我可以從手術室開始。所以通常情況下，我們不會指導 2023 年的 OR。但是對於你的問題，在第一季度，通常是在冬天，OR 只是因為冬天而季節性更高，因為燃料費用通常更高，等等。所以它通常更高。並且 - 但我們不指導 OR。我們對市場所說的，我們承諾的是，我們將努力提高我們的利潤率。現在很明顯，這使得在低容量環境中比在高容量環境中更難做到。

And as Tracy mentioned, we are not going to have a knee-jerk reaction and send people home while we have the mild recession. I think that we are going to focus on, as Ed mentioned, training locomotive engineers and so on and so forth and be ready for the rebound. So we'll carry a little bit more cost than maybe in the past we would have historically done. Tracy, do you want to second part?

正如 Tracy 提到的那樣，在經濟溫和衰退期間，我們不會下意識地做出反應，讓人們回家。我認為，正如埃德所說，我們將專注於培訓機車工程師等等，並為反彈做好準備。因此，我們將比過去可能承擔的成本多一點。特蕾西，你想要第二部分嗎？

Yes. Thank you. And thanks for your question and your interest in Investor Day. We aim to do a few things at Investor Day. We're going to -- you're going to see much bigger cross-section of our team. We will spend some time with Ed and his team on scheduled railroad where we're going to take that, how we're going to sustain that, where it could go in the future. And then we're going to talk to you with Doug and his team around where we see growth. And it will be directional and longer term in some cases.

是的。謝謝。感謝您提出問題以及您對投資者日的興趣。我們的目標是在投資者日做一些事情。我們將 - 你會看到我們團隊的橫截面更大。我們將與 Ed 和他的團隊一起花一些時間在預定的鐵路上，我們將把它帶到哪裡，我們將如何維持它，它將來會去哪裡。然後我們將與道格和他的團隊討論我們看到增長的地方。在某些情況下，它將是定向的和長期的。

But we are going to try and put some brackets around how to think about the next 3 years. We'll give you a little color sometimes give you a little bit of guidance, but we're looking forward to having the conversation with you.

但我們將嘗試圍繞如何思考未來 3 年提出一些限制。我們會給你一點顏色，有時會給你一點指導，但我們期待與你的對話。

Also from an OR and earnings perspective outside of growth?

還是從增長以外的 OR 和盈利角度來看？

We will talk to you about earnings. We don't guide on OR, as you know, but I know we'll be having conversations around leverage and the like. There is a micro site that is going up. Is it up now? It's going up tonight or Wednesday, I'm being told. That will give you a little bit of a pre-look at some of what you're going to see there. I won't give you kind of the bottom line, but you can start keeping your eye open on that for that micro site.

我們將與您討論收入。如您所知，我們不會就 OR 提供指導，但我知道我們將圍繞槓桿等進行對話。有個微網站正在上線。現在起了嗎有人告訴我，今晚或週三會上漲。這將使您對將要在那裡看到的一些內容有一些預先了解。我不會告訴您底線，但您可以開始關注該微型網站的底線。

Your next question comes from the line of Jon Chappell with Evercore ISI.

您的下一個問題來自 Evercore ISI 的 Jon Chappell。

Doug gave us the look at April from an RTM perspective. I guess, I'm kind of get that up to Monday anyway. How have your metrics been trending in April? You gave us a great update on 1Q on Origin train performance, velocity, et cetera. Just trying to get a sense for if those -- if that momentum is continuing and maybe a weaker demand backdrop? And also how much of 1Q's improvement was actually structural versus just a really relatively easy winter comp?

道格從 RTM 的角度向我們展示了四月的情況。我想，無論如何，我會在周一之前把它搞定。您的指標在 4 月份的趨勢如何？您在 1Q 上為我們提供了有關 Origin 列車性能、速度等方面的重要更新。只是想了解那些 - 如果這種勢頭持續下去並且需求背景可能疲軟？還有多少 1Q 的改進實際上是結構性的，而不是真正相對簡單的冬季比賽？

I don't think winter had a lot to do with our improvement. We got focused on a scheduled environment and that drives discipline in the network. And when you have discipline in the network, you can make things happen. We are literally running 6% more traffic with 15,000 less pieces of equipment. That equates out to lower dwell, quicker turns. All this done internally, all this done through an operating model that works for this railroad.

我認為冬天與我們的進步沒有太大關係。我們專注於一個預定的環境，這推動了網絡的紀律。當你在網絡中有紀律時，你可以讓事情發生。實際上，我們在減少 15,000 台設備的情況下增加了 6% 的流量。這等同於更低的停留時間，更快的轉彎。所有這一切都是在內部完成的，所有這一切都是通過適用於這條鐵路的運營模式完成的。

And I think we've been very successful in showing that in the first quarter. And quite frankly, I don't see any slowdown at the start of the second quarter. We're off to a great start as well.

我認為我們在第一季度非常成功地展示了這一點。坦率地說，我認為第二季度初沒有任何放緩。我們也有一個良好的開端。

We'll take our next question from Brandon Oglenski with Barclays.

我們將接受來自巴克萊銀行的 Brandon Oglenski 的下一個問題。

Doug, I was wondering if you could talk to the outlook for Intermodal. I think you've made some comments about pricing maybe being a little bit more challenging with the truck market. But also if we look at Vancouver and Prince Rupert imports, they've been down so significantly. I mean, are customers telling you this is the new level to expect? Or what's the outlook looking forward into summer and into peak?

道格，我想知道你是否可以談談聯運的前景。我想你已經發表了一些關於卡車市場定價可能更具挑戰性的評論。但如果我們看一下溫哥華和魯珀特王子港的進口，它們的下降幅度如此之大。我的意思是，客戶是否告訴您這是期望的新水平？或者對夏季和高峰期的展望是什麼？

Yes -- No problem, Brandon. So thanks for the question. So really, on the domestic side, it's just a function of domestic truck capacity is like -- is weaker, right -- the demand is weaker, so the capacity is there. So there's some pressure on that from a pricing standpoint, but we don't have contracts that come up every day. So most of our customers' business is locked up in contracts. That's why we don't worry too much about pricing, right, for there.

是的——沒問題，布蘭登。所以謝謝你的問題。所以真的，在國內，這只是國內卡車產能的一個函數，就像——更弱，對——需求更弱，所以產能就在那裡。所以從定價的角度來看，這有一些壓力，但我們沒有每天都有合同。因此，我們客戶的大部分業務都鎖定在合同中。這就是為什麼我們不太擔心定價，對吧，在那裡。

Now on the international side, no, like this is just a really low point as the inventory gets consumed within North America. The international -- the ocean carriers are looking at ramping up. It's just a function of when. Do they ramp up in Q3 or in Q4? And really, that's what we're trying to focus on. We expect to get back to normal volumes out of all of our ports, and that's really probably by the end of the year.

現在在國際方面，不，這只是一個非常低的點，因為庫存在北美被消耗掉了。國際 - 海運公司正在考慮增加。這只是時間的函數。他們會在第三季度或第四季度增加嗎？實際上，這就是我們要關注的重點。我們希望所有港口的吞吐量都能恢復正常，這很可能在今年年底前完成。

Your next question comes from the line from Ravi Shanker with Morgan Stanley.

你的下一個問題來自 Ravi Shanker 與摩根士丹利的對話。

So just a couple of follow-ups here. One is kind of on the commentary of the kind of April softness. Is that just a tough sequential comp? I think there was some grain volumes got pulled forward to 1Q. But just wanted to check if you're actually seeing a sequential step down in the macro environment and kind of if that makes you incrementally more bearish on the back half than you were 3 months ago?

所以這裡只有幾個後續行動。一種是對那種四月的柔軟的評論。這只是一個艱難的順序組合嗎？我認為有一些糧食產量被提前到第一季度。但只是想檢查一下你是否真的看到宏觀環境中出現連續下降，以及這是否會讓你比 3 個月前更加看跌後半部分？

And kind of the second follow-up is kind of just on the new Mexico service. How are you confident that you can actually like both you and your competitor can actually drive truck conversion and not just make it kind of one railroad versus the other kind of going off of that incremental share?

第二次跟進是關於新墨西哥服務的。您如何確信您和您的競爭對手實際上可以推動卡車轉換，而不僅僅是使它成為一種鐵路與另一種脫離增量份額的鐵路？

Okay. So I guess I'll -- thanks for the question, Ravi. I'll probably end up taking both. So listen, on the April softness, we're seeing a lot of our carload business is flat and some of it's down a little. Like so petroleum and chemicals is the leading indicator in the economy, is down a little. So that's why we're pretty sure we're in a mild recession. We're seeing the same thing in the domestic trucking side. We're seeing the same thing in some of the consumer product side.

好的。所以我想我會——謝謝你的問題，Ravi。我可能最終會同時服用兩者。所以聽著，在 4 月份的疲軟情況下，我們看到我們的很多貨運業務都持平，其中一些業務有所下滑。就像石油和化工是經濟的領先指標一樣，略有下降。所以這就是為什麼我們非常確定我們正處於溫和的衰退之中。我們在國內卡車運輸方面也看到了同樣的情況。我們在一些消費產品方面看到了同樣的事情。

So -- but the rest of it is hanging in there. And actually, our bulk franchise is still doing really well. So our metallurgical coal shipments are still very strong, and we expect that to continue. Where our grain, even though it's going to come down, we pull forward, it's still year-over-year doing very well, both in U.S. and Canada. So overall, some of that softness is really directly related to the mild recession that we're in, mainly on the consumer product side.

所以 - 但其餘部分都掛在那裡。事實上，我們的大宗特許經營權仍然做得很好。因此，我們的冶金煤出貨量仍然非常強勁，我們預計這種情況會持續下去。我們的糧食，即使它會下降，我們向前推進，它仍然同比表現非常好，無論是在美國還是加拿大。所以總的來說，一些疲軟確實與我們所處的溫和衰退直接相關，主要是在消費品方面。

Now when you want to talk about how do we convert the Mexico business over from -- over the road to intermodal, well, that's really what we're aiming for. We need a consistent quick transit time, and that's why we're partnering with the 2 best railways to do that with the UP and FXE. They've historically been able to convert some of that product over that moves today between Mexico and Chicago and some of the UP's network.

現在，當您想談論我們如何將墨西哥業務從 - 通過多式聯運轉變為多式聯運時，這就是我們的目標。我們需要始終如一的快速運輸時間，這就是為什麼我們與 2 家最好的鐵路公司合作，通過 UP 和 FXE 做到這一點。從歷史上看，他們已經能夠將某些產品轉換為今天在墨西哥和芝加哥以及 UP 的某些網絡之間移動的產品。

Now we're layering on top of that CN's network where really there wasn't that product before. So it's a brand-new product coming into Eastern Canada, somewhat into Detroit and even into Western Canada. So that's how we're going to take those trucks off the road because they didn't have an alternative before. If you layer on top of that, the EMP product that we actually joined with the UP and the NS in October last year, that just adds our ability to supply equipment into this market and really move it in as well as being able to send traffic back to their network.

現在我們在那個 CN 的網絡之上分層，以前真的沒有那個產品。所以這是一種全新的產品，進入加拿大東部，進入底特律，甚至進入加拿大西部。這就是我們要讓這些卡車離開公路的方式，因為他們之前沒有其他選擇。如果你把它放在最上面，我們去年 10 月實際上加入了 UP 和 NS 的 EMP 產品，這只會增加我們向這個市場提供設備並真正移動它以及能夠發送流量的能力回到他們的網絡。

So overall, I think we'll be able to do it at a great cost structure but as well as have the service that's really going to drive it.

所以總的來說，我認為我們將能夠以一個很好的成本結構來做到這一點，同時擁有真正會推動它的服務。

Our next question comes from the line of Steve Hansen with Raymond James.

我們的下一個問題來自 Steve Hansen 和 Raymond James 的對話。

One of the markets that's deteriorated more recently has been the manner of the frac sand market that surprised me to some degree. I wondering if you could speak to the outlook there and what's been driving that sequential move quarter-over-quarter and what you might expect through the back half of the year?

最近惡化的市場之一是壓裂砂市場的方式，這在某種程度上讓我感到驚訝。我想知道你是否可以談談那裡的前景，是什麼推動了季度環比的連續變化，以及你對今年下半年的預期是什麼？

That's funny, Steve. I don't recall that frac sand market, we didn't curate it at all. Actually, we had a fairly strong Q1. The primary area of our market is in the Western Canada, which saw a pretty good drilling all quarter. We're currently in the month of April, we're in spring breakup. It happened a month earlier than last year just because it warmed up a little bit faster in Western Canada.

這很有趣，史蒂夫。我不記得那個壓裂砂市場，我們根本沒有策劃它。實際上，我們有一個相當強勁的第一季度。我們市場的主要區域在加拿大西部，該地區整個季度的鑽探情況都非常好。我們目前在四月份，我們正處於春分期。它發生的時間比去年早了一個月，只是因為加拿大西部的升溫速度快了一點。

But with LNG Canada continuing on stream to start pushing product out there, drilling will continue on a very regular basis in that area, and we will continue to move frac sand in there. In fact, we're looking in future years as that for active expand.

但隨著 LNG Canada 繼續投產，開始將產品推向那裡，鑽探將繼續在該地區定期進行，我們將繼續在那裡移動壓裂砂。事實上，我們正在尋找未來幾年的積極擴張。

Okay. I'm just looking at the trailing 3-week data, that's down fairly materially relative to a strong Q1. So just curious about the delta.

好的。我只是在查看過去 3 週的數據，相對於強勁的第一季度，該數據大幅下降。所以只是對三角洲感到好奇。

No, that's spring break out there. I just -- it's a month earlier than last year.

不，那裡是春假。我只是 - 它比去年早了一個月。

We'll take our next question from Ariel Rosa with Credit Suisse.

我們將接受瑞士信貸 Ariel Rosa 的下一個問題。

Congrats on a strong quarter here. So Tracy spoke about this a bit in her opening remarks, but I wanted to get a sense for how you're thinking about potential changes to safety regulations impacting operations. Really just wanted to get a sense of what proposals you might be supportive of and which regulatory changes that have been floated, you might think are actually counterproductive or would pose risk to some of the operating progress that you've made, whether that's things like limitations on train length or train speeds or some of the other proposals that are out there?

祝賀這裡有一個強勁的季度。所以特雷西在她的開場白中談到了這一點，但我想了解你是如何考慮影響運營的安全法規的潛在變化。真的只是想了解您可能支持哪些提案以及已經提出的哪些監管變更，您可能認為實際上適得其反或者會對您已經取得的某些運營進展構成風險，無論是像限制火車長度或火車速度或其他一些建議？

Thanks for the question. So let me just start by answering it in a more general way. So we have all of us been working pretty hard and arms locked on trying to lift the performance of the supply chains up since COVID kind of set them on their side and both on improving their performance, but also on continuing to invest in the capacity of those. And so as we think about the regulators in that environment, as I said earlier, they can and they should be a very strong partner. But the way that you are a strong partner in that is when you have issues that you want to address like those that are under discussion.

謝謝你的問題。因此，讓我先以更一般的方式回答它。因此，我們所有人都在努力工作，全力以赴，努力提高供應鏈的績效，因為 COVID 有點讓供應鏈站在他們一邊，既要提高他們的績效，又要繼續投資於能力那些。因此，當我們考慮那種環境下的監管機構時，正如我之前所說，他們可以而且應該成為非常強大的合作夥伴。但是，當您遇到想要解決的問題（例如正在討論的問題）時，您就可以成為強有力的合作夥伴。

As you look at those, those discussions and that analysis needs to be based on data and fact, make sure that we all really understand the problem and that we apply the solutions that are really going to have an impact on the problem that we're trying to solve. There's a lot of kind of preemptive moves that are taking place. And in some cases, they are favorite solutions that are now being attached to -- in a lot of cases, inappropriately to the issues out there.

當你看那些，那些討論和分析需要基於數據和事實時，確保我們都真正理解問題並且我們應用真正會對我們正在處理的問題產生影響的解決方案試圖解決。有很多先發製人的舉措正在發生。在某些情況下，它們是現在被附加到的最喜歡的解決方案——在很多情況下，不適當地解決那裡的問題。

And the risk of that, of course, is that you get -- you don't address the real issue. So you don't have the improvement, you don't get the improvement that you're looking for and you could have unintensive consequences, which means that you have an impact on the performance and you have an impact on the capacity of the supply chain. And in general, that is what we fear the most and we see some of that happening. So we are working very closely with the other railroads in the industry and with the regulators to try and make sure that this is a very fact-based process.

當然，這樣做的風險是您沒有解決真正的問題。所以你沒有得到改善，你沒有得到你正在尋找的改善，你可能會產生輕微的後果，這意味著你對性能有影響，你對供應能力有影響鏈。總的來說，這是我們最害怕的事情，我們看到其中一些正在發生。因此，我們正在與業內其他鐵路公司和監管機構密切合作，努力確保這是一個非常基於事實的過程。

And if it can be that, we are side-by-side with them that efforts to continue to improve safety. So there's some ideas out there, new tank cars and other things that are very good ideas. Some of the other suggestions or the solutions that are being presented will not in any way impact or improve safety, but would impair the capacity and the performance of the supply chain.

如果可以的話，我們將與他們並肩努力，繼續提高安全性。所以有一些想法，新的油罐車和其他非常好的想法。提出的其他一些建議或解決方案不會以任何方式影響或提高安全性，但會損害供應鏈的能力和績效。

So in general, I'll leave that at that. We are very -- we want to be optimistic, and we're prepared to work very hard with our regulators to try and make sure this all lands in the right place, which is a much safer environment as we go into the future. Thanks so much. One more question, I think, operator?

所以總的來說，我會保留那個。我們非常 - 我們希望保持樂觀，並且我們準備與我們的監管機構一起努力工作，以嘗試確保這一切都在正確的地方著陸，這是我們走向未來時更安全的環境。非常感謝。還有一個問題，我想，運營商？

We'll take our last question from Justin Long with Stephens.

我們將與斯蒂芬斯一起接受賈斯汀朗的最後一個問題。

I guess first question, I wanted to ask about the new intermodal service and see if there was any color you could provide on the IMC strategy and partnerships that you could utilize to help execute on this collaboration? And then also on CapEx, I was curious if you had any updated thoughts on the outlook for 2023?

我想第一個問題，我想問一下新的多式聯運服務，看看你是否可以在 IMC 戰略和合作夥伴關係上提供任何顏色，你可以利用它們來幫助執行這種合作？然後在資本支出方面，我很好奇您是否對 2023 年的前景有任何最新的想法？

Okay. Thanks, Justin. So I'll start off there, and I'll let Ghislain chime in. So listen, for the intermodal, it's -- we will work with everybody. So we'll work with our key wholesalers. We'll work with the UPs, we'll work with the FXEs. We expect to be able to have this service offering out to everybody. CN has its own retail as well as retail product that we can help sell as well as we have TransX that can help sell. So there's a lot of different options we have there overall to be able to fill up these trains, hopefully, and we'll be working together with the UP and FXE to be able to do it.

好的。謝謝，賈斯汀。所以我將從那裡開始，我會讓 Ghislain 插話。所以聽著，對於多式聯運，它是 - 我們將與每個人合作。因此，我們將與我們的主要批發商合作。我們將與 UP 合作，我們將與 FXE 合作。我們希望能夠向所有人提供這項服務。 CN 有自己的零售和零售產品，我們可以幫助銷售，我們有 TransX 可以幫助銷售。因此，我們總體上有很多不同的選擇可以填滿這些火車，希望我們將與 UP 和 FXE 合作來做到這一點。

Yes. And I think on CapEx, I think, Justin, what we plan on doing is recession or no recession, we're going to continue to do our plan, we're going to continue to do our basic. Actually, our basic maintenance actually in the past when volumes have been softer, we were able to get better cost in terms of unit cost for tires and rail. So we're going to do that. We're going to continue as well to invest in capacity in Western Canada because that's -- Western Canada is the gift that keeps on giving.

是的。我認為在資本支出方面，賈斯汀，我們計劃做的是經濟衰退或沒有經濟衰退，我們將繼續執行我們的計劃，我們將繼續執行我們的基本任務。實際上，我們的基本維護實際上是在過去當銷量較低時，我們能夠在輪胎和鐵路的單位成本方面獲得更好的成本。所以我們打算這樣做。我們也將繼續投資於加拿大西部的產能，因為那是——加拿大西部是不斷給予的禮物。

So there's no change on CapEx for us as we speak, even with the weaker volumes that we can see ahead of us as we speak.

因此，在我們說話的時候，我們的資本支出沒有變化，即使在我們說話的時候我們可以看到較弱的數量。

And this concludes the question-and-answer session. I would like to turn the call back over to Tracy Robinson.

問答環節到此結束。我想把電話轉回給 Tracy Robinson。

Thanks very much for your interest today. I'm very proud of this team's performance in Q1. We have a great team and they're running a great railway. I just -- I want to close by highlighting that this is Paul Butcher's last earnings call with us. After a 30-year career at CN, Paul has decided to retire. I guess, 30 years is enough, Paul. Paul has had a great career at CN, started back in '93 in financial planning. And then he moved into the marketing group where he worked on this little project called the Port Prince Rupert, which turned out to be a key growth driver for us over the years.

非常感謝您今天的關注。我為這支球隊在第一季度的表現感到非常自豪。我們有一個很棒的團隊，他們正在經營一條很棒的鐵路。我只是 - 我想通過強調這是 Paul Butcher 與我們的最後一次財報電話會議來結束。在 CN 工作了 30 年之後，保羅決定退休。我想，30 年就夠了，保羅。保羅在 CN 的職業生涯非常出色，早在 93 年就開始從事財務規劃工作。然後他進入了營銷小組，在那裡他從事這個名為魯珀特王子港的小項目，後來證明這是我們多年來的主要增長動力。

In the last 14 years, he's been working with all of you in Investor Relations. And I just want to take this opportunity to thank Paul for your outstanding efforts, Paul, to serve the investment community over that period interacting with many of the guys on the call today and also personally for the help that you provided me as I've come into CN. Paul, we all want to wish you the best in a very well-deserved retirement, and we're a little envious of all the great adventures that you'll have on this next chapter of your life. So those all of you on the line, thanks so much for today, and we look forward to seeing you next week at our Investor Day.

在過去的 14 年裡，他一直在投資者關係方面與你們所有人一起工作。我只想藉此機會感謝保羅，保羅，在那段時間為投資界服務，今天與許多參加電話會議的人進行了互動，並親自感謝你為我提供的幫助，就像我一樣進入CN。保羅，我們都希望你在當之無愧的退休生活中過上最美好的生活，我們有點羨慕你將在人生的下一個篇章中經歷的所有偉大冒險。所以你們所有人都在線，非常感謝今天，我們期待在下週的投資者日見到你們。

Thank you. The conference call has now ended. Thank you for your participation. You may disconnect your line at this time.

謝謝。電話會議現已結束。感謝您的參與。此時您可以斷開您的線路。