使用警語:中文譯文來源為 Google 翻譯,僅供參考,實際內容請以英文原文為主
Operator
Good day, ladies and gentlemen and welcome to Clearwater Paper First Quarter 2013 Earnings Conference Call and Webcast. At this time, all participants are in a listen-only mode. Later, we'll conduct a question-and-answer session and instructions will be given at that time. (Operator Instructions) As a reminder, today's conference call is being recorded.
And today's speakers for the call, Ms. Linda Massman, President and Chief Executive Officer and Mr. John Hertz, Senior Vice President and Chief Financial Officer.
At this time, I would like to hand the conference over to Mr. John Hertz. Sir, you may begin.
John Hertz - SVP and CFO
Thank you, [Saied]. Good afternoon and welcome to Clearwater Paper's first quarter 2013 conference call. Our press release this afternoon includes details regarding our first-quarter results and you'll find a presentation of supplemental information posted on Investor Relations area of our website at clearwaterpaper.com.
Additionally, we provide certain non-GAAP information in this afternoon's discussion. A reconciliation of the non-GAAP information to comparable GAAP information is provided or is included in the press release and supplemental material provided on our website.
I would like to remind you that this presentation contains forward-looking statements within the meaning of the Private Securities Litigation Reform Act of 1995 as amended. These forward-looking statements are based on current expectations, estimates, assumptions and projections that are subject to change and actual results may differ materially from the forward-looking statements.
Factors that could cause actual results to differ materially include those expressed or implied by risks and uncertainties described from time to time in our filings with the Securities and Exchange Commission, including our Form 10-K for the year ended December 31, 2012 and our quarterly filings on Form 10-Q. Any forward-looking statements are made only as of this date and we undertake no obligation to update any forward-looking statements.
Now turning to our first-quarter financial performance, and let me start with a little housekeeping. There are a number of items that we do not believe are representative of our core operations impacting the first quarter, and as a result we are providing both GAAP results and those that are adjusted to exclude certain charges and benefits.
Those include; one, a $17 million charge associated with the January debt refinancing; two, a $10 million tax benefit associated with the conversion of alternative fuel mixture gallons, also known as black liquor 1, back to cellulosic biofuels also known as black liquor 2; three, $200,000 of exit charges related to the planned closure of our Thomaston converting facility; and finally four, a $3.5 million mark-to-market impact from directors' cash-settled common stock units.
Now turning to the results, big picture, the first quarter was a bit of a paradox. We saw positive business fundamentals such as customer demand, shipment volumes, pricing, product mix, production levels and product quality on the one hand, but that was paired with disappointing bottom line results on the other. This dynamic was largely due to the fact that we began taking on new conventional tissue business and customers in late 2012 to help offset upcoming displacement of conventional tissue sales as we ramp up TAD bathroom tissue shipments in 2013. Unfortunately, near-term customer demand for conventional bathroom tissue outstripped our ability to efficiently produce and transport it which gave rise to the cost pressure that we experienced in the quarter.
Turning to the specifics, Q1 net sales came in at $461 million, essentially flat versus Q4 of 2012 as an 8% increase in retail tissue shipments combined with strong paperboard shipments offset the effects of planned paperboard consignment inventory build as well as lost production associated with Arkansas mill maintenance outage and a decline in non-retail tissue volumes.
Net sales were up 1% versus the first quarter of 2012. First quarter gross margin, excluding the Thomaston impact, came in at 10.1%. That's down 4 percentage points from the fourth quarter of 2012. We expected up to 3 points of margin pressure at the consolidated level resulting from the consumer products cost headwinds and the Arkansas mill maintenance that we discussed in our February call.
The incremental margin pressure that drove gross margin down 4 points is due to three factors; first, the consumer products headwind came in at the high end of the 1 to 3 percentage point range that we gave in our Q1 outlook, and on top of that we incurred incremental converting cost associated with learning to run our new TAD bathroom tissue product as well as incremental changeover costs on paper machines to keep up with higher conventional bathroom tissue demand; second, we encountered some issues during the Arkansas major maintenance downtime that caused an incremental two days of outage time; and third, we experienced higher than expected self-insured medical costs in the quarter. I'll discuss those factors in more detail in the segment section discussion that follows.
As we think about the continuing impact of the cost pressures that we experienced in Q1, approximately $9 million was related to the network rebalancing due to the anticipated ramp-up in TAD production from Shelby and Las Vegas and a low conventional bathroom tissue inventory position. Two-thirds of this amount resolved itself by the end of the first quarter and the remainder will be resolved in Q2. In addition, the Arkansas maintenance outage amounted to $5 million of cost that won't repeat in the second quarter.
Compared to the first quarter of 2012, gross margin declined 190 basis points. Selling, general and administrative expense, excluding the $3.5 million in mark-to-market impact from directors' cash settled common stock units, was $31 million or 6.7% of first quarter net sales as compared to 6.7% in Q4 and 6.2% in the year-ago quarter.
Corporate spending, also excluding the same $3.5 million expense, was $12 million of the SG&A spend in the first quarter. That's down $2 million from the fourth quarter due to the absence of one-time retirement and relocation costs in Q4.
First quarter adjusted EBITDA was $38 million and 8.3% of net sales versus $56 million and 12.1% in the fourth quarter of 2012 as a result of the same factors impacting gross margin. First quarter 2012 adjusted EBITDA margin was 10%. Q1 net interest expense of $11 million was up $4 million from the fourth quarter as we ceased interest capitalization associated with the Shelby project. In addition, we had the $17 million of non-recurring debt retirement costs in the quarter. Compared to the first quarter of 2012, interest expense increased $1 million.
The first quarter 2013 effective tax rate on an adjusted basis was 52.6%, compared to an adjusted 31.2% in the fourth quarter and adjusted 40.6% in the first quarter of 2012. The first quarter 2013 increase in the adjusted effective tax rate, compared to the fourth quarter of 2012 is the impact of discrete interest on uncertain tax positions in the first quarter 2013 on a lower pre-tax earnings level.
On a GAAP basis, we had a Q1 net tax benefit of 94.3% as we recognized a $10 million tax benefit in the quarter associated with the conversion of gallons from black liquor 1 to the more beneficial black liquor 2. We made that shift as the time period for adverse legislative actions as it relates to black liquor 2 has passed. We expect our annual effective tax rate on adjusted basis to be 37%.
GAAP net earnings were a $900,000 loss or $0.04 per diluted share. Adjusted net earnings were $2.4 million of income or $0.11 per diluted share compared to $19 million and $0.82 respectively in the fourth quarter. The sequential declines in adjusted net earnings and adjusted EPS were due to the same factors that adversely impacted gross margin. First quarter 2012 adjusted net earnings and adjusted EPS were $9.8 million and $0.42 respectively.
Non-cash expenses in the quarter included $22 million of depreciation and amortization, $5 million of total equity-based compensation and $3 million of non-cash pension expense. Employee headcount at the end of the first quarter of 2013 was approximately 3,930. That's versus approximately 3,860 at the beginning of the year.
Now we move to a discussion of the segment results. Consumer Products net sales were $285 million for the first quarter of 2013, up 2% versus the fourth quarter, primarily due to a 1.4% or 2000 ton increase in shipments.
Breaking it down, retail tons rose 8% primarily in bathroom tissue and that was offset by a 7% decline in non-retail tons due to lower parent roll shipments and contract manufacturing. Case sales grew 4% from the fourth quarter to $13.8 million primarily due to the increase in retail demand. Total tissue average net selling price per ton was up $2 to $2,149 versus the fourth quarter of 2012 as an improved mix of retail shipments from 55% in Q4 to 58% this quarter more than offset specific declines in each of retail and non-retail pricing.
Retail price per ton declined 2% due to product mix and higher promotional spending while non-retail fell 1% due to lower machine-glazed and contract manufacturing pricing. Consumer products operating margin for the first quarter of 2013 was $10 million or 4% versus $23 million and 8% in the fourth quarter of 2012. As we stated on our fourth quarter 2012 earnings call, we expect consumer margins to fall -- expected consumer margins to fall 1.3 points sequentially due to higher pulp, incremental purchase paper and transportation costs.
The increment to the four points of margin pressure that we actually experienced was due to three things. First, there was $1 million in added costs related to establishing our new TAD bathroom tissue grade. We are making adjustments to improve runnability on the converting lines which is showing improvements here in the second quarter. Second, we had increased changeovers on our conventional paper machines to meet bathroom tissue demand which cost us $1 million. As inventories improve this issue resolves itself and in fact the paper machines are currently operating at expected rates in the month of April. And third an uptick in adverse medical claims that cost us another $2 million.
As it relates to pulp the $13 cost increase per production ton was about what we expected and translates into $2 million increase in pulp costs versus the fourth quarter. As we look into Q2, we expect pulp cost to continue to rise modestly.
With regard to purchased paper, we purchased 3,300 incremental tons versus Q4 at additional $2 million cost which was on the high end of what we expected. As we look into Q2, inventory levels are such that we no longer are purchasing external paper. However, about 2,000 tons of purchased paper from Q1 ending inventory will flow through Q2 operating results.
Incremental transportation costs were $2 million, also at the high end of what we expected. We expect transportation costs will continue to be above average until the middle of the second quarter when bathroom tissue case inventories get to levels that permit a more normal operating schedule.
Regarding Shelby, the Shelby produced 13,000 tons and 1.4 million cases in the first quarter. These production numbers were slightly ahead of our expectations and we continue to expect Shelby to produce 55,000 tons this year with a steady ramp to the full 70,000 ton run rate by the first quarter of 2014.
As for our TAD bath introduction. We shipped 94,000 cases in Q1 and expect to ship approximately 18,000 to 20,000 tons and 4 million to 5 million cases in 2013, with 4,000 tons and 900,000 cases in the second quarter. Now turning to the Pulp and Paperboard Division, Pulp and Paperboard net sales of $176 million for the first quarter of 2013 were down 3% versus the fourth quarter of 2012 due to a net 4,000 ton decline in shipped paperboard volumes to 186,000 tons. Strong shipments partially offset a 9,000 ton decline associated with the implementation of the planned consignment program as well as four days of lost production primarily due to the Arkansas maintenance outage. Paperboard average pricing of $935 per ton was roughly flat with the fourth quarter. While we did see price declines in the first part of the quarter in folding carton and commercial print, lower plate and pulp shipments improved the overall product mix.
Pulp and Paperboard operating margin for the first quarter of 2013 was $18 million or 10%, as compared to $26 million or 14% in the fourth quarter. The decline is primarily due to major maintenance, which includes $3 million of scheduled cost and an additional $2 million due to unplanned downtime.
Now turning to the balance sheet, capital expenditures were $30 million in the first quarter which included $2 million related to the TAD project, bringing total TAD project expenditures to $256 million through the end of Q1. Capital expenditures in 2013 are expected to be approximately $91 million, which includes an estimated $60 million associated with the TAD project.
Long-term debt outstanding at March 31, 2013 was $650 million, which increased from the December 31, 2012 balance due to the January refinancing of our $150 million, 10 5/8% notes with the issuance of $275 million of 4.5% senior notes due 2023.
During the first quarter, we repurchased approximately 830,000 shares of common stock at a total cost of $50.2 million. This figure includes $50 million associated with our accelerated share buyback program. Approximately 80% of the shares to be repurchased under that program were delivered in the first quarter. The exact number of remaining shares will be determined and delivered at the end of the buyback program based on the volume adjusted weighted average Clearwater stock price during the term of the program. We expect to repurchase the balance of our $100 million authorization by the end of 2013 through open market transactions.
As of the most recent measurement date of December 31, 2012, our Company sponsored pension plans were underfunded by $79 million. We contributed $3 million to those plans in the first quarter. We expect to contribute $17 million to those plans during the remainder of 2013.
With regard to our liquidity, we ended the first quarter with $95 million of unrestricted cash and short-term investments. We generated $14 million of cash from operating activities in the quarter and $27 million or 6% of net sales, excluding the impact of the debt retirement costs. Our leverage ratios remain solid. Our total debt to total capitalization, excluding accumulated other comprehensive loss, was 51.8% on March 31, 2013 compared to 44.4% on December 31, 2012. Adjusted EBITDA to net interest expense for the first quarter of 2013 was 3.5 times.
In summary, market dynamics were stronger than expected in the quarter forcing some inefficiencies in the business adversely impacted operating margins. We've identified and addressed the underlying issues and are focused on a successful ramp of TAD bathroom tissue through the remainder of the year.
I will now turn the call over to Linda Massman, who will discuss the Company's outlook.
Linda Massman - President and CEO
Thank you, John. First off, thanks for joining our call today and for your continued support of Clearwater Paper. Unfortunately as you heard from John, our first quarter was a mixed bag, and I am disappointed about the performance we delivered to you. That said the fundamentals of the business do remain solid. We've assessed what went wrong and are on our way to fixing it. We did anticipate there would be complexities associated with rebalancing our converting and paper making network in light of the new production coming from Shelby which is truly a complex process to undertake predicatively and operationally, but we did not foresee all the issues. We made some difficult decisions within the tissue business to meet customer demand and service levels at the expense of near-term profitability to ensure that we had the overall demand we need in Q3 and Q4 when Shelby ramps up.
As we enter the second quarter, many of those events are in our rearview mirror. We have taken active steps to stop or at least minimize the activities that are driving the margin compression that we saw in Q1. Examples of this would include getting our mix of inventory back to healthy operational levels, reducing purchases of external paper, minimizing paper machine changeovers wherever we can, and prioritizing customer service related decisions. However, there will likely be a hangover into the second quarter as it relates to transportation cost, TAD converting line run rates and pulp costs.
As we look at our end markets for tissue and paperboard and the factors that drive those markets, we see solid trends. For the first quarter 2013, the US tissue market grew 3.3% year-over-year to 128 million equivalent cases. And within that private label tissue grew 5.1% to 33 million equivalent cases on strong bathroom and facial tissue demand according to IRI.
Private label tissue sales also outpaced the industry growing 7% to $865 million versus 1% for the total tissue market. Accordingly private label continues to gain share in the tissue market, making up 26% of the equivalent cases sold and 22% of the total tissue dollar sales. By category case sale, private label makes up 22% of bathroom tissue, 27% of facial tissue, 31% of household towels and 50% of napkins.
For the second quarter in our consumer products business we are expecting tissue production volumes to be up modestly as Shelby continues to ramp up. However, we believe shipment tons will be roughly flat sequentially as higher non-retail tons should offset lower retail tons.
Although retail tons are expected to be down slightly, our case sales should continue to rise as TAD bathroom tissue produces more cases per ton. We expect average price per ton to rise moderately with higher TAD bathroom tissue sales and our announced price increase in parent roll sales on our tissue and machine-glazed parent roll business that is expected to be effective May 1.
On the expense side, we expect higher market pulp cost in the second quarter that will be partially offset by our reduction in purchased paper. Further out however we continue to think that pulp prices will fall in the second half of the year due primarily to new capacity.
Second quarter transportation costs are expected to be down as the bathroom tissue inventory issue resolves itself midway through the quarter. We expect chemical, energy and maintenance costs to be stable as compared to Q1.
Regarding our paperboard business, the market outlook for our SBS product is generally favorable. Domestic demand in our primary markets is trending upwards this year and it's up on a year-over-year basis. We expect this trend to continue, at least for the next quarter or two due to the normal seasonality of our business.
Prices are also trending upwards as the announced $40 price increase in plate, dish and tray has been fully implemented and the announced $50 price increase in folding cartons has been partially implemented in the marketplace and will take effect in May. In addition, several producers including Clearwater Paper have announced cup stock increases on $50 which have yet to be implemented.
In general, the overall outlook is positive with stable costs and improved pricing. The Arkansas shutdown is behind us and we expect excellent runnability over the balance of the year due to [several] backlogs.
In the second quarter we are expecting paperboard production and shipment volumes to be higher as we don't have a planned maintenance outage and the consignment inventory build is complete. Further paperboard backlogs are at strong levels for this time of the year and we expect stable to improving cost in Q2.
Looking at the consolidated business as a whole for the second quarter versus the first quarter, we expect increased shipment volumes and higher pricing as well as reduced transportation and maintenance costs to be partially offset by higher pulp costs. Further out we remain confident in our ability to produce $75 million in quarterly adjusted EBITDA in Q1 2014 as detailed in the bridge on page 10 in our supplemental financial presentation.
Specifically, we expect quarterly increases in EBITDA to be achieved from the following; $13 million to $15 million from TAD bath tissue, $9 million from the elimination of transition costs, $5 million from the reduction in major maintenance and $7 million to $8 million from paperboard volume and pricing increases, and lastly $3 million to $6 million in cost savings programs.
So while we anticipated most of the challenges we've discussed today, we did not anticipate or account for the length and extent to which they occurred. We now have a handle on these challenges. We're proud that we have loyal customers wanting our products and a great group of employees that are empowered to meet our objectives. We remain confident in the assets of our business, both our employee assets and our hard assets and thank you for your continued confidence in our business.
Finally, we will be attending the Bank of America Merrill Lynch conference on May 8 in Boston and the Oppenheimer 8th Annual Growth Summit on May 14 in New York. We hope to see you there and thank you for listening to our prepared remarks and we will now take questions.
Operator
(Operator Instructions) Graham Meagher, TD Securities.
Graham Meagher - Analyst
Hi. Good evening or good afternoon. Just a couple of questions. I guess first one on the consumer tissue side, retail tons at 77,000 this quarter. That's up quite a bit from last quarter. How much of that was Shelby and how much of that was just improved demand from the conventional side?
John Hertz - SVP and CFO
Hey, Graham. How are you? This is John. There were very low shipments of actual Shelby TAD in the quarter. So it was, I would say, 99% conventional tissue.
Graham Meagher - Analyst
Okay, great. And then maybe just one for Linda. Just thinking about the sales process for Shelby and 13,000 tons produced by this point, but how is the sales process going with your existing and new customers?
Linda Massman - President and CEO
Yes, I would say the sales process we feel very confident about how we're progressing. Our sales team is obviously working very hard in the marketplace to ensure our customers are ready to go with the new product and of course they are also continuing to bring on new customers. So I'd say we're feeling fairly confident right now.
Graham Meagher - Analyst
Got you. And then maybe just last one sort of on that line, in the bridge on page six, where you talk about SG&A costs being up in the Consumer Products segment noting the higher selling in TAD bath tissue marketing cost, is that sort of a one-time thing to get yourself into customers or is that a promotional activity, how should we think about that number?
Linda Massman - President and CEO
Graham, I think I would say it's probably a bit of both. Clearly we have a pretty aggressive sales effort taking place right now which would clearly increase our costs, but those costs do remain as we continue to take care of our customers and are out looking for new business. So it is -- I would say it's a little bit of both.
Graham Meagher - Analyst
Okay, great. Thanks very much.
John Hertz - SVP and CFO
Thanks, Graham.
Operator
Steven Chercover, D. A. Davidson.
Steven Chercover - Analyst
Thanks. Good afternoon, everyone.
John Hertz - SVP and CFO
Hi, Steve.
Steven Chercover - Analyst
First of all, I think you normally give us your pulp purchases and average price. Did I miss that in this quarter?
John Hertz - SVP and CFO
We have before previously given the sale of pulp and average sales price. Because it's such a de minimis number and it's our intention to use it all up internally we've stopped doing that.
Steven Chercover - Analyst
Okay, got you. And I guess we kind of thought that -- I guess this is for you John just to see philosophically where you stand, that we didn't do a great job interpreting your guidance from the last conference call, but do you have a rule of thumb on where you might think that it's prudent to issue a prerelease if there is going to be such a substantial miss to EPS?
John Hertz - SVP and CFO
Well, I don't know if we have a rule of thumb. I mean we don't actually give guidance. And as we move through the quarter and we looked at the range of where the different analyst estimates were towards the end of the quarter we felt we were kind of at the low end of that range and then finally through the closing of the books we ended up being lower than that. So at that point, our focus was on making sure you understood what happened and so that was when we did discuss this with you that we'd completely understand the situation to be able to explain how we are going forward.
And because we don't give guidance any pre-announcement would end up being somewhat of a kind of operational release and so that -- I don't think we'd be in a position of saying here is what we now think our range of EBITDA would be.
Steven Chercover - Analyst
I appreciate this slide 10 showing us how you get from the $38 million Q1 run rate towards the $75 million. Can we maybe go through these puts and takes and just see which one of them will be impacting Q2? I mean, obviously, Arkansas is not there in Q2, cost saving programs and how quickly could those materialize, kind of phase of them in $2 million at a time?
John Hertz - SVP and CFO
Yes, I mean the cost saving programs what --- the big hitters there are kind of a full run rate at the Granger acquisition that we said would be kind of $4 million to $5 million for the year will have more of an impact in the second quarter than in the first quarter, and then Thomaston which you know will start to incur more costs before we actually see the benefits of that. So we won't really see the full benefit of that until we get into probably the first quarter of next year. Then it's a bunch of kind of onesie-twosie capital projects, largely in the paperboard side of the business that we see $100,000 per quarter here, $200,000 per quarter there.
Linda Massman - President and CEO
I think the Arkansas outage is the only one that's fully resolved into the second quarter. The rest I think are going to play out over the course of the year. A big part of the transition cost, as we said about two-thirds, will be resolved in the second quarter, but some will carry over into third quarter or into second quarter.
Steven Chercover - Analyst
Does that mean $6 million reduction in transition cost in Q2?
Linda Massman - President and CEO
Yes, that's what we would expect.
John Hertz - SVP and CFO
Yes.
Steven Chercover - Analyst
And similarly $13 million to $15 million in TAD tissue that's gone, right, that's a onetime [revenue] in Q1?
John Hertz - SVP and CFO
Well, no that's incremental EBITDA to come once we ramp the TAD bathroom tissue, that's more Q3, Q4.
Steven Chercover - Analyst
Got it, that's not just from buying third party tissue.
John Hertz - SVP and CFO
No, that's all baked into this transition costs.
Steven Chercover - Analyst
Okay. All right. Okay. Thank you very kindly.
John Hertz - SVP and CFO
Thank you.
Linda Massman - President and CEO
Thank you, Steve.
Operator
Ian Zaffino, Oppenheimer.
Ian Zaffino - Analyst
Hi. Great. Thank you very much. As far as the switch from the TAD to the conventional, when were you made aware of that and how does it work as far as the lead time you're given to make that conversion?
Linda Massman - President and CEO
Ian, we talk to customers all the time, so we have continual dialogue and I think maybe the best way to address that question is at the end of 2012 we knew we were facing challenges in Q1 which is why we guided to being down one to three points. I would say early in the first quarter it became apparent that the challenges we anticipated were greater and longer duration than we had anticipated, and I would tell you that we began immediately working on getting us back on track. But the complexity in rebalancing the network as our new customers came on line, coupled with the low inventories in bath tissue, it just was more challenging than I think could have been anticipated at the end of the year in 2012.
Ian Zaffino - Analyst
Okay. And then on the $75 million of EBITDA run rate guidance or goal or however you call it, what quarter are we looking at that? Is that an end of 2014, mid-2014 how do you think about that?
John Hertz - SVP and CFO
We are saying we are coming into 2014 at that run rate so Q1.
Ian Zaffino - Analyst
Okay. That would be great. So I guess if we are looking at 2014, it will be somewhat higher than $300 million for 2014.
John Hertz - SVP and CFO
No I think what we've said is 2014 will be at least $300 million.
Ian Zaffino - Analyst
Well, I guess you really said $75 million per quarter entering 2014, which would mean that you are getting certainly a $75 million per quarter which gets you to $300 million. I would imagine you are getting maybe some other benefit from some other area, whether it's pricing, whether it's cost savings or something to push you over that $300 million.
John Hertz - SVP and CFO
Well, I guess we will take that where it comes.
Ian Zaffino - Analyst
Okay, thanks.
Linda Massman - President and CEO
Thanks, Ian.
Operator
James Armstrong, Vertical Research.
James Armstrong - Analyst
Good evening. Thanks for taking my question. The first one is could you talk about the parent roll price increase May first? Could you remind us of the order of magnitude of that increase?
Linda Massman - President and CEO
Yes, James, we haven't stated what the magnitude of that increase is, but what I can tell you is that it was on tissue and the machine-glazed parent roll business. We announced it mid-March. We expect it to be effective May 1, kind of based on the function of two different things, both a rising pulp market and rather strong demand in the tissue market, and I think the reason is kind of hard to go through the exact increases. Our parent roll business covers such a broad spectrum of end users from kind of highly specialized wadding to kind of a more commodity towel business. So that price increase has really varied across those different grades.
James Armstrong - Analyst
Fair enough, completely understand. And then switching gears a bit, corporate expense was up sequentially quarter over quarter, but much of that seemed a one-time expense. As we go out through the rest of the year, should corporate expense roughly be the same as what we saw in 2012?
John Hertz - SVP and CFO
Yes, I mean I think that's kind of, call it $11 million to $12 million run rate is what you should expect. It was up in Q1 because of the mark-to-market equity comp. And so if you peel that out, we are actually down versus the fourth quarter. In fourth quarter we happen to have some one-time retirement costs. So I think it all kind of comes back around to that $11 million to $12 million run rate.
James Armstrong - Analyst
Perfect. And then lastly, could you remind me the maintenance schedule for the remainder of the year, do you have any maintenance in the third and fourth quarter?
John Hertz - SVP and CFO
Yes, third quarter, Idaho will be down for major maintenance and we have said that's going to be $11 million to $13 million.
James Armstrong - Analyst
$11 million to $13 million, perfect. Thank you very much.
Operator
Lawrence Stavitski, Sidoti & Company.
Lawrence Stavitski - Analyst
Hi, good afternoon. Can you guys just I guess -- I don't know if I missed this or I guess can you just elaborate on the increased cost as a result of the lower inventories for the conventional grades? I guess can you just elaborate on what you guys were -- what you guys missed there I guess and going forward what you guys project?
Linda Massman - President and CEO
Well, let's try it this way and see if this answers your question, because what we said was it was about $8 million to $9 million of cost -- transition cost associated with kind of the rebalancing of the network as we bring Shelby up and kind of some of the inventory and those costs were additional transportation costs in moving product around the country to meet customer demand, increased changeovers and some manufacturing inefficiencies as we had to change over often to try to meet customer demand as well as some outside purchased paper which is a less -- lower margin weight around the business. And I'd say those were probably the biggest item. Does that answer your question?
Lawrence Stavitski - Analyst
Okay, yeah, that is very helpful. I guess the next question would be in terms of the retail and non-retail shipments; do you have any outlook for what those would be? And I guess just maybe elaborate on what happened this quarter in terms of the retail and non-retail shipments?
Linda Massman - President and CEO
Yes, so the retail shipments were definitely very, very robust. And then with regards to the non-retail the tons were down and that was by design to reallocate tons in order to rebuild some of our inventory.
Lawrence Stavitski - Analyst
Okay.
John Hertz - SVP and CFO
And we said looking forward that we're essentially a little bit flat but down in retail offset by up in non-retail.
Lawrence Stavitski - Analyst
Okay, great. Thank you. That is helpful. And then I guess going back to the gentleman's question on the price increases, I know you guys -- it's difficult to project them, but would you not rule out any additional price increases, if you see the input cost increasing accordingly or should the May 1 -- would that be all for the year?
Linda Massman - President and CEO
Well, I would say that is all we have line of sight to today, but obviously as we progress through the year, if market conditions change, we will without a doubt take a look at what the best course of action is for the company.
Lawrence Stavitski - Analyst
Okay, got you. And then just lastly the share buybacks, you are about 80% complete in terms of the accelerated buyback and what's taken place since then, so there is 20% left for the balance of 2013?
John Hertz - SVP and CFO
No, that's just -- that's for the half that we did the accelerated share buyback program on. There is also another $50 million of open market transactions.
Lawrence Stavitski - Analyst
Okay. So there is 20% left in the accelerated buyback and then 50% outside of that.
John Hertz - SVP and CFO
Correct.
Lawrence Stavitski - Analyst
Okay, got you. Thank you.
John Hertz - SVP and CFO
Thank you.
Operator
I would like to hand the conference back over to Ms. Linda Massman at this time.
Linda Massman - President and CEO
Great. Thank you everybody for attending the call. We appreciate your support of Clearwater Paper and we look forward to talking to you shortly at our two conferences.
Operator
Ladies and gentlemen, thank you for participating in today's conference. This concludes our program. You may all disconnect and have a wonderful day.