Celestica 舉行了 2024 年第三季財報電話會議,報告稱,受 CCS 領域超大規模客戶需求的推動,收入強勁增長。調整後每股收益達到公司歷史最高水平,未來機會前景樂觀。該公司專注於策略合作、創新和卓越運營,計劃於 2025 年過渡到美國公認會計準則報告。
儘管存在定價壓力和競爭,他們對維持市場地位並為股東創造價值的能力充滿信心。該公司對 ATS 和 CCS 領域的成長持樂觀態度,重點關注系統級解決方案和 AI/ML 計算。總體而言,天弘有望在 2024 年取得創紀錄的業績,並為未來的成功做好準備。
使用警語:中文譯文來源為 Google 翻譯,僅供參考,實際內容請以英文原文為主
Operator
Operator
Good afternoon, ladies and gentlemen, and welcome to the Celestica Q3 2024 earnings call and virtual investor meeting conference call. (Operator Instructions)
下午好,女士們、先生們,歡迎參加 Celestica 2024 年第三季財報電話會議和虛擬投資者電話會議。 (操作員說明)
This call is being recorded on Wednesday, October 23, 2024. I would now like to turn the conference over to Mr. Craig Oberg, Vice President of Corporate Development and Investor Relations. Please go ahead.
本次電話會議於 2024 年 10 月 23 日星期三進行錄音。請繼續。
Craig Oberg - VP of Investor Relations & Corporate Development
Craig Oberg - VP of Investor Relations & Corporate Development
Good evening, and thank you for joining us on Celestica's third-quarter 2024 earnings conference call and 2024 virtual investor meeting. On the call today are Rob Mionis, President and Chief Executive Officer; Mandeep Chawla, Chief Financial Officer; Jason Phillips, President of our Connectivity & Cloud Solutions segment; and Todd Cooper, President of our Advanced Technology Solutions segment. Joining us on the Q&A portion of our call will be Stephen Dorwart, SVP of our Hyperscalers and Service Provider business.
晚上好,感謝您參加 Celestica 2024 年第三季財報電話會議和 2024 年虛擬投資者會議。今天參加電話會議的是總裁兼執行長 Rob Mionis;曼迪普‧查拉 (Mandeep Chawla),財務長; Jason Phillips,我們的連接和雲端解決方案部門總裁;托德庫柏 (Todd Cooper),我們先進技術解決方案部門的總裁。我們的超大規模和服務提供者業務高級副總裁 Stephen Dorwart 將參加我們電話會議的問答部分。
Today's call will begin with a review of our third quarter financial results, our guidance for fourth quarter and our outlook for the full year followed by our virtual investor meeting. Afterwards, we will open up the lines for the Q&A portion of our call.
今天的電話會議將首先回顧我們第三季的財務表現、第四季的指導以及全年的展望,然後舉行虛擬投資者會議。之後,我們將開放電話問答部分的線路。
Please note that during the course of this conference call, we will make forward-looking statements, including statements related to anticipated trends in and their anticipated impact on our industry, our segments and their businesses and statements related to the performance of Celestica and our conversion to US GAAP. While these forward-looking statements represent our current judgment, actual results could differ materially from the conclusion, forecast or projection in the forward-looking statements made today.
請注意,在本次電話會議期間,我們將做出前瞻性聲明,包括與我們的行業、我們的部門及其業務的預期趨勢及其預期影響相關的聲明,以及與天弘的業績和我們的轉型相關的聲明是依照美國公認會計原則。雖然這些前瞻性陳述代表了我們目前的判斷,但實際結果可能與今天前瞻性陳述中的結論、預測或預測有重大差異。
Certain material factors and assumptions are applied in drawing any such statement. For identification and discussion of such factors and assumptions, please refer to our public filings available at sedarplus.ca and sec.gov, as well as our virtual investor meeting and earnings presentation available at celestica.com under the Investor Relations tab. We undertake no obligation to update these forward-looking statements unless expressly required to do so.
在繪製任何此類聲明時會應用某些重要因素和假設。有關此類因素和假設的識別和討論,請參閱我們在 sedarplus.ca 和 sec.gov 上提供的公開文件,以及在 celestica.com 投資者關係選項卡下提供的虛擬投資者會議和收益演示。除非明確要求,否則我們不承擔更新這些前瞻性聲明的義務。
In addition, during this call, we will refer to various non-IFRS financial insurers, including non-IFRS operating margin, adjusted gross margin, adjusted return on invested capital or adjusted ROIC, adjusted free cash flow, gross debt to non-IFRS trailing 12 month adjusted EBITDA leverage ratio, adjusted earnings per share or adjusted EPS, adjusted SG&A expense and adjusted effective tax rate.
此外,在本次電話會議中,我們將提及各種非IFRS 金融保險公司,包括非IFRS 營業利潤率、調整後毛利率、調整後投資資本回報率或調整後ROIC、調整後自由現金流、總債務與非IFRS 追蹤資料12 個月調整後 EBITDA 槓桿率、調整後每股盈餘或調整後 EPS、調整後 SG&A 費用和調整後有效稅率。
Additional information about material factors that could cause actual results to differ materially from a conclusion, forecast or projection in the forward-looking information as well as risk factors that may impact future performance and results of Celestica and reconciliations of non-IFRS financial measures to their most directly comparable IFRS measures are contained in our public filings and on our virtual investor meeting and earnings presentation available at celestica.com under the Investor Relations tab.
有關可能導致實際結果與前瞻性信息中的結論、預測或推測存在重大差異的重大因素的附加信息,以及可能影響天弘未來業績和業績的風險因素以及非國際財務報告準則財務指標與其財務指標的調節表最直接可比較的 IFRS 指標包含在我們的公開文件以及我們的虛擬投資者會議和獲利演示中,可在 celestica.com 的「投資者關係」標籤下查看。
Unless otherwise specified, all references to dollars on this call are to US dollars and per share information is based on diluted shares outstanding. Unless otherwise specified, all references to comparative figures are a year-over-year comparison.
除非另有說明,本次電話會議中所有提及的美元均指美元,每股資訊基於稀釋後的已發行股票。除非另有說明,所有引用的比較數字均為同比比較。
Let me now turn the call over to Rob.
現在讓我把電話轉給羅布。
Robert Mionis - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director
Robert Mionis - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director
Thank you, Craig, and good evening, everyone, and thank you for joining us on today's call. In the third quarter, our strong momentum continued, achieving revenues of $2.5 billion and adjusted EPS of $1.04 above the high end of our guidance ranges. The outperformance was driven by continued strong demand in our CCS business, coupled with strong non-IFRS operating margin of 6.7%.
謝謝克雷格,大家晚上好,謝謝您參加今天的電話會議。第三季度,我們繼續保持強勁勢頭,實現收入 25 億美元,調整後每股收益比我們指導範圍的上限高出 1.04 美元。我們的 CCS 業務需求持續強勁,加上非 IFRS 營運利潤率高達 6.7%,推動了業績的優異表現。
Our CCS segment revenues increased 42% year-over-year driven by continued investment from our hyperscale customers on data center infrastructure, including very strong demand for our networking switches within our HPS portfolio. The solid revenue growth and improvements contributed to a healthy margin expansion as our CCS segment margins of 7.6% was up by 140 basis points versus last year.
由於超大規模客戶對資料中心基礎設施的持續投資,包括對 HPS 產品組合中的網路交換器的強勁需求,我們的 CCS 部門營收年增 42%。穩健的收入成長和改善促進了利潤率的健康成長,我們的 CCS 部門利潤率為 7.6%,比去年增長了 140 個基點。
In our ATS segment, revenues were 5% lower year-over-year driven by continued softness in our industrial business, where the demand environment remains dynamic across a number of our submarkets. Partly offsetting those declines was continued strength in our A&D and capital equipment businesses, which saw a growth of 15% and 31%, respectively, in the third quarter.
在我們的 ATS 部門,由於我們的工業業務持續疲軟,我們的許多子市場的需求環境仍然充滿活力,收入比去年同期下降了 5%。我們的 A&D 和資本設備業務的持續強勁在第三季分別成長了 15% 和 31%,部分抵銷了這些下降。
Overall, we are pleased with our strong performance this year. Looking ahead, we feel we are well positioned to continue to capitalize on a number of high-value opportunities across our portfolio and strengthen our competitive position in key end markets.
總體而言,我們對今年的強勁表現感到滿意。展望未來,我們認為我們處於有利地位,可以繼續利用我們投資組合中的許多高價值機會,並加強我們在關鍵終端市場的競爭地位。
I would now like to turn the call to Mandeep who will provide a detailed review of our third quarter performance, our guidance for the fourth quarter of 2024 and our outlook for the full year. Mandeep, over to you.
我現在想給 Mandeep 打電話,他將詳細回顧我們第三季的業績、2024 年第四季的指導以及全年的展望。曼迪普,交給你了。
Mandeep Chawla - Chief Financial Officer
Mandeep Chawla - Chief Financial Officer
Thank you, Rob. Third quarter revenue came in at $2.50 billion, up 22% and above the high end of our guidance range. The growth was supported by strong demand from hyperscaler customers in our CCS segment, partially offset by lower revenues in our ATS segment driven by the anticipated softness in our industrial business.
謝謝你,羅布。第三季營收為 25 億美元,成長 22%,高於我們指引範圍的上限。這一成長得益於 CCS 領域超大規模客戶的強勁需求,但由於工業業務預期疲軟而導致 ATS 領域營收下降,部分抵消了這一成長。
Third quarter non-IFRS operating margin of 6.7% was an improvement of 100 basis points, driven by improved mix and operating leverage from higher volumes in our CCS segment. Our third quarter adjusted earnings per share was $1.04, which exceeded the high end of our guidance range and was $0.39 higher. This once again marked our highest quarterly results in company history. Our third quarter adjusted effective tax rate was 21%.
第三季非國際財務報告準則營運利潤率為 6.7%,提高了 100 個基點,這得益於我們 CCS 業務銷售增加帶來的組合改善和營運槓桿。我們第三季調整後每股收益為 1.04 美元,超出了我們指導範圍的上限,高出 0.39 美元。這再次標誌著我們公司歷史上最高的季度業績。我們第三季調整後的有效稅率為 21%。
Moving on to our segment performance. ATS segment revenues for the third quarter were $814 million, down 5%, slightly more than our expectations of a low single-digit decrease. The decrease in ATS segment revenue was driven by lower demand in our industrial business. The decline was partially offset by solid growth in our Aerospace and Defense and capital equipment businesses. ATS segment revenue accounted for 33% of total revenues in the third quarter.
延續我們的細分市場表現。第三季 ATS 部門營收為 8.14 億美元,下降 5%,略高於我們對低個位數降幅的預期。 ATS 部門收入的下降是由於我們的工業業務需求下降所致。這一下降被我們的航空航天和國防以及資本設備業務的穩健成長部分抵消。 ATS部門收入佔第三季總收入的33%。
Our third quarter CCS segment revenue of $1.69 billion was up by 42%, driven by very strong growth in both our enterprise and communications end markets. CCS segment revenue accounted for 67% of total company revenues in the third quarter. Revenue in our enterprise end market was up by 38%, above our expectation of a mid-30s percentage increase driven by stronger-than-expected demand due to program dynamics in our storage business. Revenue in our communications end market grew by 45%, which was better than our expectations of a low 30s-percentage increase.
在企業和通訊終端市場強勁成長的推動下,我們第三季 CCS 部門營收成長了 42%,達到 16.9 億美元。第三季CCS部門營收占公司總營收的67%。我們的企業終端市場的收入成長了 38%,高於我們對 30 多歲百分比成長的預期,這是由於我們的儲存業務的計劃動態導致需求強於預期。我們的通訊終端市場營收成長了 45%,優於我們 30% 的低成長預期。
The growth in our communications end market was driven primarily by increased demand for our HPS networking switches. HPS revenues grew by 54%, reaching $761 million in the third quarter, which accounted for 30% of total company revenue. The very strong growth in our HPS portfolio was driven by hyperscaler customer demand for our 400G networking switches as well as ramping programs in 800G switches.
我們的通訊終端市場的成長主要是由對 HPS 網路交換器的需求增加所推動的。第三季HPS營收成長54%,達到7.61億美元,占公司總營收的30%。我們的 HPS 產品組合的強勁成長是由超大規模客戶對我們的 400G 網路交換器的需求以及 800G 交換器的提升計畫所推動的。
Turning to segment margins. ATS segment margin in the third quarter was 4.8%, down 10 basis points, driven primarily by lower operating leverage in our industrial end market, partially offset by improvement in capital equipment and A&D. CCS segment margin during the quarter was 7.6%, up 140 basis points, driven by greater operating leverage and improved mix.
轉向細分市場利潤。第三季 ATS 部門利潤率為 4.8%,下降 10 個基點,主要是由於我們工業終端市場的營運槓桿較低,但部分被資本設備和 A&D 的改善所抵消。在營運槓桿提高和組合改善的推動下,本季 CCS 部門利潤率為 7.6%,成長 140 個基點。
During the third quarter, we had two customers that accounted for more than 10% of total revenue, representing 25% and 12% of sales for the quarter, respectively. We remain comfortable with the levels of customer concentration in our portfolio as we believe that we maintain appropriate loans of diversification across multiple programs with our largest customers.
第三季度,我們有兩個客戶佔總收入超過 10%,分別佔該季度銷售額的 25% 和 12%。我們對投資組合中的客戶集中度保持滿意,因為我們相信我們在與最大客戶的多個項目中保持適當的多元化貸款。
Moving on to some additional financial metrics. IFRS net earnings for the third quarter were $92 million or $0.77 per share, up $0.10. Adjusted gross margin for the third quarter was 10.7%, up 90 basis points, driven by operating leverage and production efficiencies in our CCS segment. Our third quarter adjusted ROIC was 28.6%, an improvement of 7.1%, driven by higher operating profitability and strong working capital management.
接下來討論一些額外的財務指標。第三季 IFRS 淨利為 9,200 萬美元,即每股 0.77 美元,成長 0.10 美元。在 CCS 部門的營運槓桿和生產效率的推動下,第三季調整後毛利率為 10.7%,成長 90 個基點。在更高的營運獲利能力和強大的營運資本管理的推動下,我們第三季調整後的投資資本回報率 (ROIC) 為 28.6%,提高了 7.1%。
Moving on to working capital. At the end of the third quarter, our inventory balance was $1.83 billion, down $26 million sequentially and down $434 million year-over-year. Cash deposits were $521 million at the end of the quarter, lower by $55 million sequentially and $354 million lower year-over-year. As expected, we continue to return some of our cash deposits back to customers as gross inventories move lower. Cash cycle days during the third quarter were 66, up two days sequentially and six days lower than the prior year period.
轉向營運資金。截至第三季末,我們的庫存餘額為 18.3 億美元,季減 2,600 萬美元,年減 4.34 億美元。截至本季末,現金存款為 5.21 億美元,季減 5,500 萬美元,年減 3.54 億美元。正如預期的那樣,隨著總庫存下降,我們繼續將部分現金存款回饋給客戶。第三季現金週期天數為 66 天,比上一季增加兩天,比去年同期減少六天。
Moving on to our cash flow. Capital expenditures for the quarter were $46 million or approximately 1.8% of revenue compared with 1.3% in the third quarter of 2023. We expect our capital expenditures for 2024 to be approximately 1.75% in revenues in line with our previous outlook of between 1.5% and 2%.
繼續我們的現金流。本季的資本支出為4,600 萬美元,約佔營收的1.8%,而2023 年第三季為1.3%。我們預期2024 年的資本支出將佔營收的1.75% 左右,與我們先前預期的1.5% 至1.75% 一致。
In the third quarter, we generated $75 million of adjusted free cash flow compared to $34 million in the prior year period. 2024 year-to-date, we have generated $203 million of adjusted free cash flow compared to $110 million during the first three quarters of 2023.
第三季度,我們產生了 7,500 萬美元的調整後自由現金流,而去年同期為 3,400 萬美元。 2024 年迄今為止,我們已產生 2.03 億美元的調整後自由現金流,而 2023 年前三個季度為 1.1 億美元。
Now moving on to some additional key metrics. At the end of the third quarter, our cash balance was $399 million. In combination with our $750 million of borrowing capacity under our revolver, this provides us with approximately $1.1 billion in total liquidity which we believe is sufficient to meet our anticipated business needs.
現在繼續討論一些其他關鍵指標。截至第三季末,我們的現金餘額為 3.99 億美元。加上我們循環貸款下的 7.5 億美元借款能力,這為我們提供了約 11 億美元的總流動資金,我們相信這足以滿足我們預期的業務需求。
Our gross debt at the end of the third quarter was $746 million, leaving us with a net debt position of $347 million. Our gross debt to non-IFRS trailing 12 month adjusted EBITDA leverage ratio was 1.0 turns, down 0.1 turns both sequentially and compared to the prior year.
第三季末我們的總負債為 7.46 億美元,淨負債部位為 3.47 億美元。我們過去 12 個月的總債務與非 IFRS 調整後 EBITDA 槓桿率為 1.0 倍,比上一季和上年同期均下降 0.1 倍。
As of September 30, we were compliant with all financial covenants under our credit agreement. During the third quarter, we repurchased approximately 2.2 million shares for cancellation under normal course issuer bid at an average cost of approximately $44 per share for a total deployment of $100 million.
截至 9 月 30 日,我們遵守了信貸協議下的所有財務契約。第三季度,我們回購了約 220 萬股股票,並根據正常發行人要約取消,平均成本約為每股 44 美元,總部署額為 1 億美元。
This step-up in purchase as compared to recent quarters is reflective of our commitment to be active on an opportunistic basis when we feel there is a dislocation in our share price relative to our financial performance and outlook. Year-to-date, we have purchased a total of approximately 2.9 million shares at a cost of $127 million under the program.
與最近幾季相比,購買量的增加反映了我們的承諾,當我們認為我們的股價相對於我們的財務表現和前景存在錯位時,我們將在機會主義的基礎上積極行動。今年迄今為止,我們已根據該計劃總共購買了約 290 萬股股票,耗資 1.27 億美元。
Now turning to our guidance for the fourth quarter of 2024. Fourth quarter revenues are expected to be in the range of $2.425 billion to $2.575 billion which, if achieved, would represent growth of 17% at the midpoint. Fourth quarter adjusted earnings per share are expected to be in the range of $0.99 to $1.09 which, if achieved, would represent an improvement of $0.28 per share or 37% at the midpoint.
現在轉向我們對 2024 年第四季的指引。第四季調整後每股收益預計在 0.99 美元至 1.09 美元之間,如果實現這一目標,每股收益將提高 0.28 美元,中間值將提高 37%。
If the midpoint of our revenue and adjusted EPS guidance ranges are achieved, non-IFRS operating margin would be 6.7% which would represent an increase of 70 basis points compared to the same period last year. Our adjusted SG&A expense for the fourth quarter is expected to be in the range of $78 million to $80 million. We anticipate our adjusted effective tax rate for the fourth quarter to be approximately 21%.
如果達到我們收入和調整後每股收益指引範圍的中點,非國際財務報告準則營業利益率將為 6.7%,比去年同期增加 70 個基點。我們調整後的第四季 SG&A 費用預計在 7,800 萬美元至 8,000 萬美元之間。我們預計第四季調整後的有效稅率約為 21%。
Now turning to our end market outlook for the fourth quarter of 2024. In our ATS segment, we anticipate revenue to be flat year-over-year driven by continued growth in A&D and recovering demand in capital equipment, offset by continued softness in our Industrial business.
現在轉向我們對 2024 年第四季的終端市場展望。 。
In our CCS segment, we anticipate revenue in our communications end market to be up in the high 50s percentage range driven by continued demand strength for our networking switches, including accelerating ramps in our 800G programs.
在我們的 CCS 領域,我們預期通訊終端市場的營收將在 50 % 以上的百分比範圍內成長,這得益於我們網路交換器的持續需求強勁,包括我們 800G 專案的加速成長。
In our enterprise end market, we expect revenues to decrease in the low double-digit percentage range. Consistent with our commentary last quarter, the anticipated decline is driven by a technology transition in a large sole-source AI/ML compute program with the next-generation program also sole-sourced expected to ramp in the latter half of 2025. We expect these declines will be partly offset by growth in our storage business.
在我們的企業終端市場,我們預期收入將在兩位數百分比範圍內下降。與我們上季度的評論一致,預期下降是由大型單一來源 AI/ML 計算程序的技術轉型推動的,下一代程序也是單一來源的,預計將在 2025 年下半年出現增長。業務的成長將部分抵消下降的影響。
Assuming the achievement of the midpoint of our fourth quarter guidance changes, we now anticipate revenue of $9.6 billion and adjusted EPS of $3.85 for the full year 2024. If these outlooks are achieved, they would represent growth of 21% and 58%, respectively.
假設實現第四季度指引變化的中點,我們現在預計 2024 年全年營收為 96 億美元,調整後每股收益為 3.85 美元。
Our 2024 non-IFRS operating margin is now expected to be 6.5%, which would represent a 90 basis points improvement. Finally, our adjusted free cash flow is now expected to be $275 million for the full year, up from our previous outlook of $250 million.
我們 2024 年的非 IFRS 營業利潤率目前預計為 6.5%,這意味著提高了 90 個基點。最後,我們調整後的全年自由現金流預計為 2.75 億美元,高於我們先前預期的 2.5 億美元。
I'd also like to take this opportunity to remind everyone of our upcoming transition from foreign private issuer to US domestic issuer reporting status as our shareholder base is now comprised of a majority of US-based investors. Beginning January 1, 2025, our consolidated financial statements will be prepared in accordance with US GAAP, and we will no longer report results under IFRS.
我還想藉此機會提醒大家,我們即將從外國私人發行人向美國國內發行人的報告地位轉變,因為我們的股東基礎現在由大多數美國投資者組成。自 2025 年 1 月 1 日起,我們的合併財務報表將根據美國公認會計原則 (US GAAP) 編制,並且我們將不再根據國際財務報告準則 (IFRS) 報告業績。
Concurrent with the release of our Q4 and full year 2024 quarter financial results, we will include a reconciliation of the financial metrics provided as part of our guidance and outlook in IFRS and non-IFRS for the comparable US GAAP and non-GAAP adjusted financial metrics.
在發布第四季度和2024 年全年季度財務表現的同時,我們將在IFRS 和非IFRS 中納入財務指標的調節表,作為我們對可比較的美國GAAP 和非GAAP 調整後財務指標的指導和展望的一部分。
At this time, we do not expect any material differences in our Q4 2024 guidance and full year 2024 outlook had it been prepared under US GAAP. Finally, this change does not impact our status as a Canadian domiciled company.
目前,如果我們按照美國公認會計準則編制,我們預計 2024 年第四季指引和 2024 年全年展望不會有任何重大差異。最後,這項變更不會影響我們作為加拿大註冊公司的地位。
With that, I would like to turn the call back over to Rob to begin our 2024 Virtual Investor Meeting.
至此,我想將電話轉回 Rob,開始我們的 2024 年虛擬投資者會議。
Robert Mionis - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director
Robert Mionis - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director
Thank you, Mandeep. We're excited to have the opportunity to provide you with an update on the progress we have been making in the execution of our strategy and an overview of the opportunities we are pursuing in each of our markets. Before we get started, I'd like to briefly walk you through the agenda for the next portion of our call today.
謝謝你,曼迪普。我們很高興有機會向您介紹我們在執行策略方面所取得的最新進展,並概述我們在每個市場中尋求的機會。在我們開始之前,我想向您簡要介紹一下今天電話會議下一部分的議程。
First, I will provide a brief overview of our business, our operational footprint and discuss the key pillars of our company's strategy. Next, Jason Phillips, President of Connectivity and Cloud Solutions, will provide an overview of our CCS segment and discuss the evolving data center and IT hardware landscape.
首先,我將簡要概述我們的業務、營運足跡,並討論我們公司策略的關鍵支柱。接下來,連接和雲端解決方案總裁 Jason Phillips 將概述我們的 CCS 部門,並討論不斷發展的資料中心和 IT 硬體前景。
Following Jason, Todd Cooper, President of Investment Technology Solutions, will discuss our diversified market portfolio, including the macro outlook and long-term strategic priorities across each of our end markets. And finally, we will hand the floor back to our CFO, Mandeep Chawla, who will discuss our 2025 financial outlook, our capital allocation priorities and our plans to continue to maximize returns for our shareholders. Following this, we will open up the lines for Q&A, where Steve Dorwart, SVP of our Hyperscaler and Service Provider business, will also join us.
繼 Jason 之後,投資技術解決方案總裁 Todd Cooper 將討論我們多元化的市場組合,包括每個終端市場的宏觀前景和長期策略重點。最後,我們將把發言權交還給我們的財務長 Mandeep Chawla,他將討論我們 2025 年的財務前景、我們的資本配置優先事項以及我們繼續為股東實現最大化回報的計劃。隨後,我們將開放問答環節,我們的超大規模和服務提供者業務高級副總裁 Steve Dorwart 也將加入我們。
Now let's begin with an overview of our business today. Celestica is a global leader in electronic manufacturing services and supply chain solutions, serving the world's leading technology companies across a range of industries which are critical to the advancement of our global economy. We're much more than just a manufacturing partner. We're a strategic collaborator offering leading-edge products, best-in-class engineering support and trusted operational execution across a global network that spans 16 countries and are supported by 27,000 employees. We enable our customers to bring innovative products and services to market with speed, efficiency and uncompromising quality.
現在讓我們先概述一下我們今天的業務。天弘是電子製造服務和供應鏈解決方案的全球領導者,為各行業的全球領先科技公司提供服務,這些產業對全球經濟的進步至關重要。我們不僅僅是製造合作夥伴。我們是一家策略合作夥伴,透過遍佈 16 個國家的全球網路提供領先的產品、一流的工程支援和值得信賴的營運執行,並得到 27,000 名員工的支援。我們幫助客戶以快速、高效和毫不妥協的品質將創新產品和服務推向市場。
The evolution in our business continues to be reflected in our financial performance. Our consistently improving results in recent years have been driven by the successful execution of our strategy and the growing demand for our leading capabilities and product offerings. The achievement of our full year outlook for 2024 would represent the strongest non-IFRS operating margins and the highest adjusted earnings per share in the company's history.
我們業務的發展持續反映在我們的財務表現中。近年來,我們業績的持續改善得益於我們策略的成功執行以及對我們領先能力和產品不斷增長的需求。我們對 2024 年全年展望的實現將代表公司歷史上最強勁的非國際財務報告準則營業利潤率和最高的調整後每股收益。
Today, Celestica strength extends far beyond traditional EMS. We believe that our differentiated value proposition leverages the best of both the EMS and ODM models, combining our sale and supply chain proficiency with advanced customization capabilities in both design and manufacturing.
如今,天弘的實力已遠遠超越了傳統的 EMS。我們相信,我們的差異化價值主張充分利用了 EMS 和 ODM 模式的優點,將我們的銷售和供應鏈熟練程度與設計和製造方面的高級定制能力相結合。
We believe that as a North American-based Tier 1 EMS and ODM company, our offering stands out amongst our competitors in the marketplace. And importantly, it offers us a number of distinct strategic advantages that allow us to better serve our customers and positions us as a choice partner for complex, high reliability programs.
我們相信,作為一家北美一級 EMS 和 ODM 公司,我們的產品在市場競爭對手中脫穎而出。重要的是,它為我們提供了許多獨特的策略優勢,使我們能夠更好地服務客戶,並使我們成為複雜、高可靠性專案的首選合作夥伴。
Our strategic plan is built on four key pillars which are intended to leverage our core strengths and capitalize on market opportunities that align with our competencies while delivering sustainable value to our shareholders. Firstly, we're committed to building a resilient, growth-oriented and diversified portfolio designed to withstand cyclical fluctuations. We've been discerning in choosing the markets that we compete in, and we remain selective in our approach to entering new markets. Our focus remains on opportunities that we believe are supported by strong secular tailwinds, offer attractive growth potential and provide structural benefits to our portfolio.
我們的策略計劃建立在四個關鍵支柱的基礎上,旨在利用我們的核心優勢並利用與我們的能力一致的市場機會,同時為股東提供可持續的價值。首先,我們致力於建立一個有彈性、以成長為導向的多元化投資組合,以抵禦週期性波動。我們在選擇我們參與競爭的市場時一直保持著敏銳的洞察力,並且我們在進入新市場的方法上也保持選擇性。我們的重點仍然是我們認為受到強勁長期順風支持、提供有吸引力的成長潛力並為我們的投資組合帶來結構性好處的機會。
Secondly, we're committed to making the necessary investments to expand our capabilities and further enhance our offerings. While we have made a great deal of progress in this regard over the years, we are not resting on our past achievements. We continue to build out our ODM offering with investments in next-generation products based on multiyear road maps while adding to and enhancing our EMS engineering and services capabilities.
其次,我們致力於進行必要的投資,以擴大我們的能力並進一步增強我們的產品。雖然多年來我們在這方面取得了很大進展,但我們並沒有滿足於過去的成就。我們繼續根據多年路線圖投資下一代產品來建立我們的 ODM 產品,同時增加和增強我們的 EMS 工程和服務能力。
Thirdly, we remain dedicated to operational excellence across our global footprint. The Celestica operating system is designed to help ensure consistency in operational execution and to enable best-in-class performance, which is reflected by the numerous customer awards and high customer scorecard ratings that we receive each year. Quality and execution are central to our ethos and integral to everything that we do.
第三,我們仍然致力於在全球範圍內實現卓越營運。天弘操作系統旨在幫助確保營運執行的一致性並實現一流的性能,這反映在我們每年獲得的眾多客戶獎項和客戶記分卡高評級中。品質和執行力是我們精神的核心,也是我們所做的一切的組成部分。
Lastly, our objective is to maximize total shareholder returns. We aim to achieve this by targeting long-term adjusted EPS growth of 10% or more while maintaining a disciplined approach to capital allocation.
最後,我們的目標是最大化股東總回報。我們的目標是透過將長期調整後每股收益成長 10% 或更高的目標來實現這一目標,同時保持嚴格的資本配置方法。
Now I would like to hand the call over to Jason Phillips to provide a closer look at our CCS segment. Jason, over to you.
現在我想將電話轉交給 Jason Phillips,讓他更仔細地了解我們的 CCS 領域。傑森,交給你了。
Jason Phillips - President - Connectivity and Cloud Solutions
Jason Phillips - President - Connectivity and Cloud Solutions
Thank you, Rob, and good evening, everyone. I'm pleased to be here with you today to provide an update on some of the exciting projects we are working on in our Connectivity and Cloud Solutions business. I'd like to start with a look at where we are today.
謝謝你,羅布,大家晚上好。我很高興今天能夠與大家一起介紹我們在連接和雲端解決方案業務中正在進行的一些令人興奮的項目的最新情況。我想先看看我們今天的處境。
2024 has been a year of tremendous growth for our business as we are on track to achieve $6.4 billion in revenue, which would represent an impressive 39% increase. Our growth has been driven by strong demand in all three of our core technologies, server and storage in our enterprise end market and networking within our communications end market, with each category expected to end the year up more than 25%. We'll talk more about our portfolio in each of those technologies in just a few minutes.
2024 年是我們業務大幅成長的一年,我們的營收預計將實現 64 億美元,增幅高達 39%,令人印象深刻。我們的成長是由對我們所有三項核心技術、企業終端市場的伺服器和儲存以及通訊終端市場的網路的強勁需求所推動的,每個類別預計到年底都會成長 25% 以上。我們將在幾分鐘內詳細討論我們在每項技術中的產品組合。
From a customer perspective, hyperscalers have been the primary growth driver in our business this year. In 2024, we are on track for $4.8 billion in revenue with hyperscalers, which now accounts for nearly three quarter of our CCS portfolio. Looking at our CCS segment by solution, we've seen in recent years, strong and balanced growth across both our EMS and HPS portfolios. Our HPS business continues to account for a rising share of our portfolio, driven by strong demand in our market-leading Ethernet Switch business.
從客戶的角度來看,超大規模企業是我們今年業務的主要成長動力。到 2024 年,我們預計透過超大規模設備實現 48 億美元的收入,目前占我們 CCS 產品組合的近四分之三。按解決方案查看我們的 CCS 細分市場,我們看到近年來我們的 EMS 和 HPS 產品組合都實現了強勁而平衡的成長。在我們市場領先的乙太網路交換器業務的強勁需求的推動下,我們的 HPS 業務在我們的產品組合中所佔的份額持續上升。
Lastly, we are supporting our customers by continuing to make investments in our services capabilities, which we view as an increasingly important part of our end-to-end life cycle solutions offering for the data center. Adding to our core strengths in R&D and engineering, our services offering has grown to include IT asset disposition, IT asset management and carbon credit services, creating a powerful platform for growth with our customers by helping to strengthen our relationships and drive higher attach rates.
最後,我們透過持續投資我們的服務能力來支援我們的客戶,我們認為這是我們為資料中心提供的端到端生命週期解決方案中日益重要的一部分。除了我們在研發和工程方面的核心優勢外,我們的服務範圍已擴大到包括IT 資產處置、IT 資產管理和碳信用服務,透過幫助加強我們的關係並提高附加率,為與客戶共同成長創建了一個強大的平台。
As we look at the major market trends influencing our business, investments in artificial intelligence continue to be the driving force shaping the data center landscape. It remains our belief that the current wave of investment in AI infrastructure has a multiyear runway ahead of it.
當我們審視影響我們業務的主要市場趨勢時,對人工智慧的投資仍然是塑造資料中心格局的驅動力。我們仍然相信,目前的人工智慧基礎設施投資浪潮還有多年的發展前景。
Today, the lion's share of the investment in AI infrastructure is driven by the top five hyperscalers who are estimated to spend $133 billion this year on data center hardware across storage, networking and server technologies.
如今,人工智慧基礎設施的大部分投資是由排名前五的超大規模企業推動的,預計它們今年將在儲存、網路和伺服器技術等資料中心硬體上花費 1,330 億美元。
Estimates suggest that annual hyperscaler spend on data center hardware will grow by more than $50 billion through 2027 or 40% to $186 million. The latest forecast based on discussions with our customers for 2025 are showing early support for these estimates. Today, we serve our hyperscaler customers across all three major hardware technology categories, and we are investing to stay at the leading edge of the technology curve. As we look ahead, feel we are well positioned to continue to capture a growing share of the spend from these key players in the coming years.
據估計,到 2027 年,超大規模企業在資料中心硬體上的年度支出將成長超過 500 億美元,即 40%,達到 1.86 億美元。基於與客戶討論的 2025 年最新預測顯示了對這些估計的早期支持。如今,我們為所有三大硬體技術類別的超大規模客戶提供服務,我們正在投資以保持技術曲線的領先地位。展望未來,我們認為我們處於有利地位,可以在未來幾年繼續從這些主要參與者那裡獲得越來越多的支出份額。
As we've seen, the hardware and infrastructure investments required to support the development of AI models are significant. And while hyperscalers are leading the AI investment cycle today, there is a growing wave of organizations which the market has termed digital native companies who are looking to harness the transformative potential of AI by ramping up their own infrastructure investments. We believe that these emerging players in the rapidly expanding AI ecosystem present high-margin growth opportunities of meaningful scale for solutions providers like Celestica.
正如我們所看到的,支援人工智慧模型開發所需的硬體和基礎設施投資是巨大的。儘管超大規模企業正在引領當今的人工智慧投資週期,但越來越多的組織被市場稱為數位原生公司,他們希望透過加大自身基礎設施投資來利用人工智慧的變革潛力。我們相信,快速擴張的人工智慧生態系統中的這些新興參與者為天弘等解決方案提供者提供了有意義的規模高利潤成長機會。
Firstly, we are seeing opportunities with an emerging breed of specialized AI cloud providers, providing AI optimized infrastructure and services to support increasingly specific use cases, such as natural language processing, machine vision and data analytics. Others in this market are building high-powered AI compute infrastructure at scale, helping customers to scale their AI workloads more efficiently and at a lower cost.
首先,我們看到了新興的專業人工智慧雲端供應商的機會,它們提供人工智慧優化的基礎設施和服務,以支援日益具體的用例,例如自然語言處理、機器視覺和資料分析。該市場上的其他公司正在大規模建立高效能的人工智慧運算基礎設施,幫助客戶更有效率、更低成本地擴展其人工智慧工作負載。
Next, as large enterprise customers increasingly employ the use of AI models, we anticipate more spending on edge computing, bringing AI infrastructure closer to where data is created in order to reduce latency and enhanced data security.
接下來,隨著大型企業客戶越來越多地使用人工智慧模型,我們預計在邊緣運算上的支出將會增加,使人工智慧基礎設施更接近資料建立的地方,以減少延遲並增強資料安全性。
Finally, we have seen a number of nations or sovereigns, make commitments to invest in large-scale data center projects as governments across the world are increasingly recognizing the strategic importance of domestic AI infrastructure. These government-led initiatives could be a meaningful contributor to growth in CapEx dollars within the AI data center ecosystem.
最後,隨著世界各國政府越來越認識到國內人工智慧基礎設施的戰略重要性,我們看到許多國家或主權國家承諾投資大型資料中心專案。這些政府主導的措施可能會對人工智慧資料中心生態系統內的資本支出成長做出有意義的貢獻。
We believe Celestica is well positioned to capitalize on these emerging opportunities. Our expertise in designing and manufacturing advanced hardware solutions, coupled with our comprehensive services portfolio, enables us to cater to the needs of this diverse set of customers.
我們相信天弘已做好充分利用這些新興機會的準備。我們在設計和製造先進硬體解決方案方面的專業知識,加上我們全面的服務組合,使我們能夠滿足這些不同客戶的需求。
Hardware Platform Solutions, or HPS, is Celestica's original design manufacturing offering where we innovate on product designs across all three major technologies in the data center, server, storage and networking. Our HPS business supports our customers on engagements ranging from joint design to highly customized hardware to off-the-shelf white box solutions, which can be further enabled with open source software.
硬體平台解決方案(HPS)是 Celestica 的原創設計製造產品,我們在資料中心、伺服器、儲存和網路的所有三大技術領域進行產品設計創新。我們的 HPS 業務為客戶提供從聯合設計到高度客製化的硬體再到現成的白盒解決方案的支持,這些解決方案可以透過開源軟體進一步啟用。
In 2024, we anticipate that HPS will generate approximately $2.8 billion in revenues which would represent growth of more than 60%. However, this journey has been far from an overnight success. We've spent more than 10 years building our platform while innovating hundreds of patents and supporting 230 product launches. This year, we will be investing nearly $80 million into R&D, and we expect that number to grow next year.
到 2024 年,我們預計 HPS 將產生約 28 億美元的收入,成長超過 60%。然而,這趟旅程遠非一蹴而就。我們花了 10 多年的時間建立我們的平台,同時創新了數百項專利並支援 230 種產品的發布。今年,我們將投資近 8,000 萬美元用於研發,預計明年這數字將會成長。
R&D is a core competency for Celestica. In addition to innovating with our own proprietary product designs, we also play an important role as an extension of our customers' R&D teams. We believe that our capabilities and breadth of offerings in this area are a critical factor that differentiates us from both our North American EMS and ODM peers.
研發是天弘的核心競爭力。除了利用我們自己的專有產品設計進行創新外,我們還作為客戶研發團隊的延伸發揮著重要作用。我們相信,我們在這一領域的能力和產品範圍是我們區別於北美 EMS 和 ODM 同行的關鍵因素。
Our investments over the last decade plus in this platform reflect our strong commitment to making ODM a central and enduring element of our business. Our HPS portfolio is margin accretive to our CCS segment and enables relationships that are more deeply entrenched with our customers and ecosystem partners compared to traditional EMS engagements.
過去十年來我們對該平台的投資反映了我們致力於使 ODM 成為我們業務的核心和持久要素的堅定承諾。與傳統的 EMS 業務相比,我們的 HPS 產品組合可以增加我們的 CCS 部門的利潤,並使我們與客戶和生態系統合作夥伴的關係更加牢固。
In networking, our switch products support a range of customers and use cases, from 1G switches for OEMs designed for the campus to 800G switches for hyperscalers used to facilitate AI workloads in the data center.
在網路方面,我們的交換器產品支援一系列客戶和用例,從為園區設計的 OEM 的 1G 交換器到用於促進資料中心 AI 工作負載的超大規模設備的 800G 交換器。
Today, the majority of our HPS portfolio is made up of networking switches which are exclusively for Ethernet. We were an early leader in 400G, and we are early to market with our 800G solutions, which are being well received by our customers in preparation for the next upgrade cycle we are already investing in designs for 1.6G.
如今,我們的 HPS 產品組合大部分由專用於乙太網路的網路交換器組成。我們是 400G 領域的早期領導者,我們很早就將 800G 解決方案推向市場,這些解決方案受到了客戶的好評,為下一個升級週期做好準備,我們已經在投資 1.6G 的設計。
Our growing team of nearly 150 software engineers in gen AI continues to support customers with enablement of proprietary open source solutions for network operating systems, which we believe customers will continue to gravitate to over time. We also have the capability to offer a ready-to-use operating system, production hardened by our engineering team, or to integrate existing third-party software and optimize performance for each.
我們不斷成長的 gen AI 團隊由近 150 名軟體工程師組成,繼續為客戶提供網路作業系統專有開源解決方案的支持,我們相信隨著時間的推移,客戶將繼續受到這些解決方案的青睞。我們也有能力提供即用型作業系統,由我們的工程團隊強化生產,或整合現有的第三方軟體並優化每個軟體的效能。
In AI/ML compute, we are committing R&D to advance cooling system designs to support the increasing power demands of AI silicon, which we'll talk more about in a few minutes. And in storage, we have proprietary designs for high availability, next-generation controllers and expansion systems, which we are able to integrate with our offering as part of our RAC solutions. We feel that our distinctive ODM offering will continue to drive new wins and remain a key growth driver in our CCS segment over the long term.
在人工智慧/機器學習運算方面,我們致力於研發先進的冷卻系統設計,以支援人工智慧晶片不斷增長的功率需求,我們將在幾分鐘內詳細討論這一點。在儲存方面,我們擁有高可用性、下一代控制器和擴展系統的專有設計,我們能夠將其與我們的產品集成,作為 RAC 解決方案的一部分。我們認為,從長遠來看,我們獨特的 ODM 產品將繼續推動新的勝利,並且仍然是我們 CCS 領域的關鍵成長動力。
Next, I'd like to do a deeper dive into our business and the market outlook across each of our technologies. Celestica's communications business is a cornerstone of our portfolio. Today, Celestica is the world's largest ODM provider of Ethernet switches with $2.4 billion of our portfolio expected to come from HPS networking solutions in 2024.
接下來,我想更深入地了解我們的業務以及每項技術的市場前景。天弘的通訊業務是我們投資組合的基石。如今,Celestica 是全球最大的乙太網路交換器 ODM 供應商,預計到 2024 年我們的產品組合中將有 24 億美元來自 HPS 網路解決方案。
Our portfolio is geared towards high bandwidth applications with the majority of our HPS networking revenues now coming from switches 400G and higher. Our focus on high bandwidth solutions is reflected in our leading market share in the 400G switch segment. Third-party data suggests that we have the market's largest installed base as measured by deliveries of 400G ports over the past five years.
我們的產品組合面向高頻寬應用,目前我們的大部分 HPS 網路收入來自 400G 及更高規格的交換器。我們對高頻寬解決方案的關注體現在我們在 400G 交換器領域的領先市場份額上。第三方數據表明,根據過去五年 400G 連接埠的交付量來衡量,我們擁有市場上最大的安裝基礎。
As leading data center operators begin their transition to 800G, we will be enabling all of our hyperscaler customers who use our 400G switches in the separate cycle. We believe that being early to market with our 800G solutions as is poised to build on our existing leadership position as ramps accelerate.
隨著領先的資料中心營運商開始向 800G 過渡,我們將為所有在單獨週期中使用我們的 400G 交換器的超大規模客戶提供支援。我們相信,隨著產能加速成長,儘早將 800G 解決方案推向市場將有助於鞏固我們現有的領導地位。
The rapid expansion of cloud data centers coupled with the increasing demand for more powerful computing to support AI applications is driving exceptional levels of investment in networking infrastructure. Market forecasts predict that the Ethernet switch market for bandwidth of 400G and higher will grow at a remarkable 52% compound annual growth rate over the next three years. It is critical to our success to continue to be a first mover and remain at the leading edge of each successive technology transition, and we are making the necessary investments to do so.
雲端資料中心的快速擴張,加上對支援人工智慧應用的更強大運算的需求不斷增長,正在推動對網路基礎設施的巨大投資。市場預測預計,未來三年,400G及以上頻寬的乙太網路交換器市場將以52%的複合年增長率成長。繼續成為先行者並在每次連續的技術轉型中保持領先地位對我們的成功至關重要,我們正在為此進行必要的投資。
To this end, we're pleased to have an initial win with a large hyperscaler customer for a 1.6 terabyte switching program exemplifying our leadership and innovation. We anticipate that this win will be the first of many for the next generation in switching technology and expect to see revenues from this program begin ramping in mid-2026.
為此,我們很高興首次贏得大型超大規模客戶的 1.6 TB 交換計劃,這體現了我們的領導力和創新能力。我們預計,這場勝利將是下一代交換技術眾多勝利中的第一個,並預計該計畫的收入將在 2026 年中期開始增加。
With each generation of upgrades to higher bandwidths, the engineering challenges related to signal integrity, power and thermal management involve a step function increase in complexity relative to previous generations, making a high-performance product that is early to market that much more challenging to deliver.
隨著每一代產品升級到更高的頻寬,與訊號完整性、電源和熱管理相關的工程挑戰涉及相對於前幾代產品的複雜性逐步增加,使得早期上市的高性能產品的交付更具挑戰性。
This is a dynamic that we believe plays to Celestica's strength in R&D, and we are confident we are up to the task. To this end, we are exploring brand-new innovations, including advanced designs in the areas of cooling and signal integrity. We feel that Celestica has proven capabilities and our commitment to continued innovation will allow us to remain a leader in this market through future upgrade cycles.
我們相信這種動力能夠發揮天弘在研發上的優勢,我們有信心能勝任這項任務。為此,我們正在探索全新的創新,包括冷卻和訊號完整性領域的先進設計。我們認為天弘擁有經過驗證的能力,而我們對持續創新的承諾將使我們能夠在未來的升級週期中保持該市場的領導者地位。
Celestica's server business has had another strong year, driven by AI/ML compute, which comprises the vast majority of our portfolio. With more than 20 years of experience supporting OEM customers and high-performance servers, we possess the engineering expertise and scale manufacturing capabilities to build compute platforms designed around the latest generation of AI silicon from various vendors.
天弘的伺服器業務在人工智慧/機器學習運算的推動下又迎來了強勁的一年,人工智慧/機器學習運算構成了我們產品組合的絕大多數。憑藉 20 多年支援 OEM 客戶和高效能伺服器的經驗,我們擁有工程專業知識和規模製造能力,可以建構圍繞不同供應商的最新一代 AI 晶片設計的運算平台。
Today, we are concentrated primarily on designs using custom ASIC silicon. We have a proven history supporting multiple generations of these platforms for one of the world's leading hyperscalers. We believe our engineering support is a key differentiator. We specialize in highly customized designs with demanding complexity and technical requirements. Our expertise spans a wide range of areas, critical with this hardware from power density and form factor optimization to specialized testing capabilities and fully integrated RAC scale solutions.
今天,我們主要專注於使用客製化 ASIC 晶片的設計。我們擁有為世界領先的超大規模企業之一提供多代此類平台支援的悠久歷史。我們相信我們的工程支援是關鍵的差異化因素。我們專注於具有嚴格複雜性和技術要求的高度客製化設計。我們的專業知識涵蓋廣泛的領域,從功率密度和外形優化到專業測試能力和完全整合的 RAC 規模解決方案,對於硬體至關重要。
Thermal management is a critical area where Celestica has a strong history of proof points that currently support programs utilizing both air cooling and single-phase liquid cooling techniques. However, with the rapid advancement in AI silicon, power usage and thermal output are increasing dramatically. And as a result, the requirements for cooling solutions are fast evolving.
熱管理是一個關鍵領域,Celestica 擁有悠久的歷史證明,目前支援利用空氣冷卻和單相液體冷卻技術的專案。然而,隨著人工智慧晶片的快速發展,功耗和熱輸出急劇增加。因此,對冷卻解決方案的要求正在快速變化。
Celestica is looking to position itself to be a leader with the next generation of cooling systems. Our HPS team has developed proof-of-concept designs for pump to face cooling systems, and we are exploring advanced techniques for improving heat transfer between high-powered silicon and cold plates which are applicable to both single and dual phase cooling systems.
天弘希望將自己定位為下一代冷卻系統的領導者。我們的 HPS 團隊已經開發了泵面冷卻系統的概念驗證設計,我們正在探索改善高功率矽和冷板之間傳熱的先進技術,這些技術適用於單相和雙相冷卻系統。
We are also actively developing prototypes for liquid immersion solutions. We will look to leverage these advanced capabilities to support our customers on successive generations of their AI/ML server programs as well as to incorporate our thermal management systems in the future HPS designs for AI/ML servers and full RAC solutions.
我們也積極開發液浸解決方案的原型。我們將尋求利用這些先進的功能來支援客戶的連續幾代 AI/ML 伺服器程序,並將我們的熱管理系統納入 AI/ML 伺服器和完整 RAC 解決方案的未來 HPS 設計中。
In 2024, the AI server market is expected to reach approximately $100 billion and this figure is projected to grow to over $250 billion by 2027. The top five hyperscalers account for nearly 70% of spending today, driven by their substantial investments in the back-end infrastructure required to train the latest generations of AI models. And while they are expected to continue to comprise the majority of the AI server market in the coming years, we anticipate that digital native companies will claim a larger share of spend over time.
到2024 年,人工智慧伺服器市場預計將達到約1000 億美元,到2027 年,這一數字預計將增長到2500 億美元以上。他們在後台的大量投資。雖然預計未來幾年它們將繼續佔據人工智慧伺服器市場的大部分,但我們預計隨著時間的推移,數位原生公司將佔據更大的支出份額。
We are also seeing custom ASIC platforms play an increasingly important role in AI infrastructure, particularly for hyperscalers and specialized AI cloud providers. As AI applications become increasingly specialized and models grow larger, the benefits of custom silicon platforms become more pronounced, offering potential advantages such as power efficiency, optimized performance and cost effectiveness.
我們也看到客製化 ASIC 平台在人工智慧基礎架構中發揮越來越重要的作用,特別是對於超大規模企業和專業人工智慧雲端供應商而言。隨著人工智慧應用變得越來越專業,模型變得越來越大,客製化晶片平台的優勢變得更加明顯,提供了功效、優化性能和成本效益等潛在優勢。
We continue to be very optimistic on the potential for growth within the custom ASIC segment of the AI server market. Celestica is pursuing a multifaceted strategy to capture these growth opportunities and diversify our AI/ML compute business.
我們仍然對人工智慧伺服器市場的客製化 ASIC 領域的成長潛力非常樂觀。 Celestica 正在採取多方面的策略來抓住這些成長機會並使我們的 AI/ML 運算業務多元化。
Firstly, we are actively pursuing programs with new server customers, including digital native companies. To this end, we are pleased to formally announce a strategic relationship with a growing AI player, Grok, who have developed an innovative new proprietary silicon platform, the language processing unit, which specializes in accelerated inferencing. We're proud to be supporting Grok with the manufacturing of their AI/ML servers and full RAC solutions with programs expected to begin ramping in early 2025.
首先,我們正在積極尋求與新伺服器客戶(包括數位原生公司)的合作。為此,我們很高興地正式宣布與不斷發展的人工智慧公司 Grok 建立策略關係,Grok 開發了一種創新的新型專有矽平台,即語言處理單元,專門從事加速推理。我們很自豪能夠支援 Grok 製造其 AI/ML 伺服器和完整的 RAC 解決方案,專案預計將於 2025 年初開始投入使用。
Our hyperscaler customers also remain pivotal to our AI/ML server growth plans. We've already secured the next generation of liquid cooled custom ASIC-based server programs with our largest hyperscaler customer expect to ramp up in mid-2025 as well as additional programs that are expected to ramp in 2026 and beyond.
我們的超大規模客戶對於我們的 AI/ML 伺服器成長計畫仍然至關重要。我們已經為我們最大的超大規模客戶提供了下一代基於液冷定制 ASIC 的伺服器程序,預計將在 2025 年中期增加,其他程序預計將在 2026 年及以後增加。
We are also in discussions with a number of other hyperscaler customers regarding potential engagements for both custom ASIC and merchant silicon platforms with expected start dates ranging from late 2025 to as far out as 2027. Finally, we are investing in our own HPS designs for full system RAC scale solutions for AI/ML compute. While we are initially collaborating with AMD, our platform will be capable of supporting both merchant silicon and custom ASICs.
我們也正在與許多其他超大規模客戶討論客製化 ASIC 和商業矽平台的潛在合作,預計開始日期從 2025 年末到最遠 2027 年。 /ML 計算的系統RAC 規模解。雖然我們最初與 AMD 合作,但我們的平台將能夠支援商用晶片和客製化 ASIC。
We see a growing need within the marketplace for modular solutions that can be customized to accommodate a diverse range of AI silicon options. By leveraging our engineering expertise in cooling systems, power management and RAC integration and orchestration, along with our existing HPS solutions for switching and storage, we believe that we will be able to create an attractive offering that can satisfy the needs of hyperscale, AI cloud and enterprise customers alike.
我們看到市場對模組化解決方案的需求不斷增長,這些解決方案可以進行客製化以適應各種人工智慧晶片選項。透過利用我們在冷卻系統、電源管理以及RAC 整合和編排方面的工程專業知識,以及我們現有的交換和儲存HPS 解決方案,我們相信我們將能夠創建一個有吸引力的產品,滿足超大規模、人工智慧雲端的需求和企業客戶等。
Moving on to our storage portfolio. With nearly 30 years of history in the storage market, we're able to leverage our expertise to deliver high-performance storage products for the data center as well as enterprise. The demand for storage products has yet to experience a significant step-up in the manner which we have seen recently in the server and switching markets. However, with the surge in AI workloads, we believe the market for storage products will continue to trend towards high-performance and high-density storage technologies.
繼續我們的儲存產品組合。憑藉在儲存市場近 30 年的歷史,我們能夠利用我們的專業知識為資料中心和企業提供高效能儲存產品。對儲存產品的需求尚未像我們最近在伺服器和交換器市場中看到的那樣顯著的成長。然而,隨著人工智慧工作負載的激增,我們相信儲存產品市場將繼續朝向高效能和高密度儲存技術發展。
Our storage business will continue to play an important role in the plans for both our EMS and ODM offerings as our engineering expertise and proprietary designs can be seamlessly integrated into our RAC scale solutions. To support our ability to capture this opportunity, we continue to invest in the development of next-generation storage solutions with industry-leading density, power efficiency and thermal management, leveraging the latest technology in high-capacity drives and buses.
我們的儲存業務將繼續在我們的 EMS 和 ODM 產品計劃中發揮重要作用,因為我們的工程專業知識和專有設計可以無縫整合到我們的 RAC 規模解決方案中。為了支持我們抓住這一機會的能力,我們繼續投資開發具有行業領先密度、電源效率和熱管理的下一代儲存解決方案,利用大容量驅動器和總線方面的最新技術。
To wrap up, we continue to see investment in AI reshaping the IT hardware landscape over the coming years, driving innovative changes in technology and impressive growth. As a leading player in both EMS and ODM offerings across the data center, we believe this presents us with a tremendous opportunity to build on our recent successes and to grow along with it.
總而言之,我們將繼續看到人工智慧投資在未來幾年重塑 IT 硬體格局,推動技術創新變革和令人矚目的成長。作為整個資料中心 EMS 和 ODM 產品的領先參與者,我們相信這為我們提供了一個巨大的機會,可以在我們最近的成功的基礎上再接再厲,並與之共同成長。
With that, I'd like to turn it over to Todd Cooper to talk to you about our ATS segment.
說到這裡,我想請 Todd Cooper 和您談談我們的 ATS 細分市場。
Todd Cooper - President - Advanced Technology Solutions
Todd Cooper - President - Advanced Technology Solutions
Thank you, Jason, and good evening to all of you joining us on the call. As you can see on the screen, our ATS segment is expected to deliver approximately $3.2 billion of revenue this year. As part of Celestica's overall strategy, we remain committed to growing our presence in diversified markets which we believe offers a number of strategic advantages and synergies with the rest of our business. Among these are diversification, exposure to markets with strong structural tailwinds, and a competitive environment that is limited by strict regulatory hurdles and capability requirements.
謝謝傑森,祝大家晚上好。正如您在螢幕上看到的,我們的 ATS 部門今年預計將帶來約 32 億美元的收入。作為天弘整體策略的一部分,我們仍然致力於擴大我們在多元化市場的影響力,我們相信這可以提供許多策略優勢並與我們的其他業務產生協同效應。其中包括多元化、對結構性強勁的市場的曝險,以及受到嚴格監管障礙和能力要求限制的競爭環境。
Despite facing demand headwinds in certain markets this year, we have demonstrated resilience by achieving an anticipated 11% average annual revenue growth rate over the past three years. This speaks to the attractiveness and durability of our ATS portfolio over the long term. In 2025, we expect to see our ATS segment revenues grow in the low single digits percentage range. We will discuss the end market dynamics driving this growth shortly.
儘管今年某些市場面臨需求逆風,但我們在過去三年中實現了預期 11% 的年均收入成長率,展現了韌性。這說明了我們 ATS 產品組合的長期吸引力和耐用性。到 2025 年,我們預計 ATS 部門收入將在較低的個位數百分比範圍內成長。我們將很快討論推動這一成長的終端市場動態。
Overall, our strategic priority for the ATS segment is to achieve greater scale in select markets in an effort to drive a more optimal mix within our portfolio. Obtaining this balance will allow us to reap greater benefits of diversification, reduce volatility and better weather cyclical market downturns. We are optimistic about the growth road map that we have laid out for each of our ATS businesses, and continue to have confidence in our ability to maintain our long-term target revenue growth rate of 10% or more for the ATS portfolio.
整體而言,我們 ATS 領域的策略重點是在特定市場實現更大規模,以推動我們的產品組合更加最佳化。獲得這種平衡將使我們能夠從多元化中獲得更大的好處,減少波動性並更好地應對週期性市場低迷。我們對我們為每項 ATS 業務制定的成長路線圖感到樂觀,並繼續對我們維持 ATS 投資組合 10% 或更高的長期目標收入成長率充滿信心。
So now let's move on and assess the outlook and growth opportunities in each of our end markets, starting with Industrial and smart energy. Our industrial and smart energy portfolio, which is expected to achieve $1.3 billion in revenue this year is broadly diversified across markets such as energy storage, energy generation, EV charging telematics, factory automation and on vehicle.
現在,讓我們繼續評估每個終端市場的前景和成長機會,從工業和智慧能源開始。我們的工業和智慧能源產品組合預計今年將實現 13 億美元的收入,在能源儲存、能源發電、電動車充電遠端資訊處理、工廠自動化和車載等市場上廣泛多元化。
The key value drivers in our industrial and smart energy portfolio include our strong manufacturing presence close to home, including our expanded manufacturing presence at our Monterrey, Mexico site as well as our expertise in new product introductions, which we have leveraged to support a number of early-stage customers as well as larger, more established companies working with new technologies.
我們的工業和智慧能源產品組合的關鍵價值驅動因素包括我們在本土附近強大的製造業務,包括我們在墨西哥蒙特雷工廠擴大的製造業務以及我們在新產品推出方面的專業知識,我們利用這些專業知識來支援許多早期客戶以及使用新技術的更大、更成熟的公司。
After a year of soft demand driven by macro uncertainties and customer inventory burn down, we are seeing signs of market stabilization. We remain cautiously optimistic on returning to growth in 2025 with demand expected to strengthen in the back half of next year.
經過一年宏觀不確定性和客戶庫存消耗導致的需求疲軟之後,我們看到了市場穩定的跡象。我們對 2025 年恢復成長保持謹慎樂觀,預計明年下半年需求將增強。
Over the long term, we continue to see many attractive opportunities supported by favorable trends in the submarkets. In fact, industry forecast suggests that base demand in our smart energy markets, including EV charging, energy storage, and energy generation are expected to grow at an average of 13% annually through 2027, driven by government spending on green energy infrastructure and supported by bills such as the Inflation Reduction Act. We are also seeing solid opportunities in battery energy storage systems, supporting both utility scale and residential applications.
從長遠來看,我們繼續看到在子市場的有利趨勢的支持下有許多有吸引力的機會。事實上,產業預測表明,到 2027 年,在政府綠色能源基礎設施支出的推動和《減少通貨膨脹法案》等法案。我們也看到電池儲能係統的巨大機遇,支持公用事業規模和住宅應用。
Let's move on to A&D. Today, our A&D business is comprised of approximately 60% commercial aerospace and 40% defense and is on track to reach approximately $900 million of revenue in 2024. We serve major aircraft, subsystem and component OEMs as well as defense contractors from our sites in Malaysia, Europe and North America. We view ourselves as the leading A&D supplier within the EMS industry, supported by over two decades of developing our key capabilities and proof points with our customers.
讓我們繼續討論 A&D。如今,我們的A&D 業務由約60% 的商業航空航太和40% 的國防業務組成,預計到2024 年收入將達到約9 億美元。國防承包商提供服務、歐洲和北美。我們將自己視為 EMS 行業內領先的 A&D 供應商,二十多年來我們與客戶一起開發了我們的關鍵能力和證據,為我們提供了支持。
Breaking it down by segment. In commercial aerospace, the general demand backdrop remains stable with growth in our base business expected to normalize after several strong years of being bolstered by recovery from the pandemic. Looking at our commercial portfolio in 2025, we have made the decision not to renew an expiring program that is breakeven and profitability.
按段細分。在商業航空領域,整體需求背景保持穩定,在大流行復甦的推動下經歷了幾年的強勁增長後,我們的基礎業務增長預計將正常化。考慮到 2025 年我們的商業投資組合,我們決定不再續約即將實現損益平衡和獲利的到期項目。
At the same time, we have recently won a high-margin licensing program with this same customer. As a result, in 2025, we expect A&D revenue to be approximately $100 million lower year-over-year, but with higher operating profit dollars and margins.
同時,我們最近贏得了該客戶的高利潤許可計劃。因此,我們預計 2025 年 A&D 收入將年減約 1 億美元,但營業利潤和利潤率將更高。
In Defense, we are seeing strong traction with new opportunities driven by demand from European and Western governments, which are expected to drive robust growth. We are also leveraging our engineering capabilities to pursue growth opportunities in emerging submarkets, including space, unmanned aerial vehicles and electric vertical takeoff and landing aircraft.
在國防領域,我們看到歐洲和西方政府需求推動的新機會的強勁吸引力,預計將推動強勁成長。我們也利用我們的工程能力在新興子市場尋求成長機會,包括太空、無人機和電動垂直起降飛機。
Let's next move to capital equipment. After a challenging 2023 in capital equipment, we have seen demand begin to recover and we have revenues of approximately $700 million in 2024, up 16%. Our capital equipment of business supports the world's leading wafer fabrication equipment OEMs through our network of sites in Malaysia, South Korea and the US.
接下來讓我們轉向資本設備。在資本設備經歷了充滿挑戰的 2023 年後,我們看到需求開始復甦,到 2024 年我們的收入約為 7 億美元,成長 16%。我們的資本設備業務透過我們在馬來西亞、韓國和美國的站點網路為世界領先的晶圓製造設備 OEM 提供支援。
We believe that our extensive capabilities and depth of experience position us as a leading EMS provider in this market. This is evidenced by our strong share gains over the past several years, including our newest logo, ASML Holdings, with whom we have begun ramping critical lithography programs.
我們相信,我們廣泛的能力和豐富的經驗使我們成為該市場領先的 EMS 提供者。過去幾年我們的強勁份額成長證明了這一點,包括我們最新的標誌 ASML Holdings,我們已經開始與他們合作推進關鍵的光刻項目。
In 2025, we expect growth to be supported by these ramping programs in lithography as well as continued recovery in base market demand driven primarily by memory.
到 2025 年,我們預計光刻技術的這些成長計劃以及主要由記憶體驅動的基礎市場需求的持續復甦將支持成長。
Further, we continue to make investments in our footprint and capabilities to better service our customers on leading-edge technologies in memory, logic, lithography and AI devices. We've added new clean room capacity over the last 12 months in all of our capital equipment sites globally as well as additional technical personnel to support demand for both domestic US and Asia production.
此外,我們繼續對我們的足跡和能力進行投資,以便在記憶體、邏輯、光刻和人工智慧設備領域的領先技術上更好地為客戶提供服務。過去 12 個月,我們在全球所有資本設備基地增加了新的無塵室產能,並增加了技術人員,以滿足美國和亞洲國內生產的需求。
We believe that our domestic capacity and strategic footprint within Asia will be critical differentiators in the years ahead as geopolitical considerations, increasing government restrictions on the semiconductor industry and the need for localization continue to intensify.
我們相信,隨著地緣政治考量、政府對半導體產業限制的增加以及在地化需求的不斷加劇,我們在亞洲的國內產能和戰略足跡將成為未來幾年的關鍵差異化因素。
And finally, let's move to our HealthTech business. In our HealthTech business, we anticipate revenues of approximately $300 million in 2024. Today, we serve customers across a number of critical technologies leveraging our high reliability manufacturing capabilities at FDA registered and ISO certified facilities.
最後,讓我們轉向我們的健康科技業務。在我們的健康科技業務中,我們預計 2024 年的收入約為 3 億美元。 如今,我們利用我們在 FDA 註冊和 ISO 認證設施中的高可靠性製造能力,為許多關鍵技術的客戶提供服務。
Looking ahead to 2025, our business is expected to see modest growth as we ramp new programs and shift our mix towards finished devices while continuing to expand our HealthTech engineering offerings. Our long-term growth plans in HealthTech are primarily focused on the fast-growing diabetes care, imaging, diagnostics and surgical instrument markets.
展望 2025 年,隨著我們推出新項目並將產品組合轉向成品設備,同時繼續擴大我們的健康科技工程產品,我們的業務預計將出現適度成長。我們在健康科技領域的長期成長計畫主要集中在快速成長的糖尿病照護、影像、診斷和手術器械市場。
To support this growth, we have made investments in our product level engineering capabilities, enabling us to support our customers end to end from full box build to finished products to testing and regulatory certification. We also continue to invest in our advanced manufacturing competence, most recently, adding to our automation capabilities at our Galway, Ireland site.
為了支持這種成長,我們對產品級工程能力進行了投資,使我們能夠為客戶提供從整機組裝到成品到測試和監管認證的端到端支援。我們也繼續投資我們的先進製造能力,最近增加了愛爾蘭戈爾韋工廠的自動化能力。
With that, I would now like to turn the floor back over to Mandeep, who will discuss our financial outlook for 2025 and our capital allocation priorities.
現在,我想將發言權交回 Mandeep,他將討論我們 2025 年的財務前景以及我們的資本配置優先事項。
Mandeep Chawla - Chief Financial Officer
Mandeep Chawla - Chief Financial Officer
Thank you, Todd. Since completing our strategic transformation in 2020, Celestica has made significant progress on our path towards achieving the level of financial performance we have in 2024, which, as Rob mentioned, is on track to be another record year. If I look back at the past five years, showcases our track record of consistent growth and improvements in profitability.
謝謝你,托德。自 2020 年完成策略轉型以來,天弘在實現 2024 年財務業績水準方面取得了重大進展,正如 Rob 所提到的,2024 年有望再創紀錄。如果我回顧過去五年,就會看到我們持續成長和獲利能力改善的記錄。
Assuming the achievement of our 2024 outlook, we will have added nearly $4 billion in revenue over the last four years, amounting to a 14% CAGR since 2020. At $9.6 billion in revenue, we are on track to close 2024 up 21%, during the period where the majority of our EMS industry peers are seeing revenue decline.
假設我們的2024 年前景得以實現,我們在過去四年中將增加近40 億美元的收入,自2020 年以來的複合年增長率為14%。成長21%,其中我們大多數 EMS 行業同行的收入都在下降。
Profitability also continues to improve as our portfolio's mix has shifted towards higher-margin ODM business and high complexity engagements in our CCS segment. Our outlook for 2024, if achieved, will have seen non-IFRS operating margins rise by 300 basis points and adjusted EPS nearly 4 times higher compared to 2020.
隨著我們的投資組合轉向利潤率更高的 ODM 業務和 CCS 領域的高複雜性業務,獲利能力也持續提高。我們對 2024 年的展望如果實現的話,非國際財務報告準則營業利益率將上升 300 個基點,調整後每股收益將比 2020 年高出近 4 倍。
Our ability to efficiently manage our working capital during this period of strong growth has seen us generate positive adjusted free cash flow in each quarter for over five years. We believe our performance speaks to our disciplined financial strategy, the resilience of our portfolio across both of our segments and the strength of our team.
我們在這段強勁成長時期有效管理營運資本的能力使我們在五年多的時間裡每個季度都產生了正的調整後自由現金流。我們相信,我們的業績體現了我們嚴格的財務策略、我們兩個部門的投資組合的彈性以及我們團隊的實力。
Looking ahead at our early estimates for 2025. We anticipate revenue of $10.4 billion, which would represent growth of 8% compared to our 2024 outlook. Our CCS segment is expected to see growth in the low double-digit percentage range driven primarily by the ramping of the energy programs with hyperscalers and new wins in AI/ML compute.
展望我們對 2025 年的早期預測。我們的 CCS 部門預計將出現低兩位數百分比的成長,這主要是由於超大規模能源計劃的增加以及人工智慧/機器學習計算方面的新勝利所推動的。
In our ATS segment, we anticipate low single-digit percentage growth as our industrial and capital equipment businesses are expected to experience a recovery in demand, partly offset by lower revenues in our A&D business due to a decision not to renew an expiring program with an aim to improve overall profitability.
在我們的ATS 部門,我們預計成長率將較低,因為我們的工業和資本設備業務預計將經歷需求復甦,但由於我們決定不再續簽即將到期的計劃,我們的A&D 業務收入下降部分抵消了這一增長。
Non-IFRS operating margin is expected to come in at 6.7%, which would be 20 basis points of margin expansion compared to our 2024 outlook, driven by operating leverage and improved profitability in both segments.
在營運槓桿和兩個部門獲利能力提高的推動下,非國際財務報告準則營運利潤率預計為 6.7%,與我們的 2024 年展望相比,利潤率擴大了 20 個基點。
Our outlook of adjusted EPS of $4.42 is 15% higher compared to our 2024 outlook, ahead of our long-term target CAGR of 10% or more. Capital expenditures are expected to remain between 1.5% and 2.0% of revenue within our historical range. Finally, we are anticipating adjusted free cash flow of $325 million, which would represent growth of 18% over our 2024 outlook.
我們的調整後每股盈餘預期為 4.42 美元,比 2024 年的預期高出 15%,高於我們 10% 或更高的長期目標複合年增長率。資本支出預計將保持在收入的 1.5% 至 2.0% 之間,處於我們的歷史範圍內。最後,我們預計調整後的自由現金流為 3.25 億美元,比我們的 2024 年展望成長 18%。
Our current outlook for 2025 represents our high confidence view based on current discussions with our customers. These conversations are active and ongoing. And so we look forward to providing you with an update in January.
我們目前對 2025 年的展望代表了我們基於當前與客戶討論的高度自信的觀點。這些對話是活躍且持續的。因此,我們期待在一月份為您提供更新。
Beyond 2025, we are encouraged by these discussions, which are supported by significant new wins and third-party forecasts for growth in our underlying market. As such, we currently expect the momentum we are seeing to continue into 2026 and the medium term.
2025 年之後,我們對這些討論感到鼓舞,這些討論得到了重大新成果和第三方對我們基礎市場成長的預測的支持。因此,我們目前預計這種勢頭將持續到 2026 年和中期。
Moving on to our capital allocation priorities. Our overall framework for capital allocation remains consistent. Over the long term, we aim to return 50% of our adjusted free cash flow to shareholders and reinvest 50% back into the business.
繼續我們的資本配置優先事項。我們的資本配置總體框架保持一致。從長遠來看,我們的目標是將調整後的自由現金流的 50% 返還給股東,並將 50% 再投資回業務。
Since the beginning of 2014, we have reduced our share of gaining by 36%. In that time, we returned close to $1 billion in capital to our shareholders through buybacks. We will continue to deploy capital towards buybacks on an opportunistic basis. In addition, we remain focused on opportunities to reinvest back into the business through R&D, strategic investments in our manufacturing footprint and capability and M&A.
自 2014 年初以來,我們的收益份額已減少了 36%。那時,我們透過回購向股東返還了近 10 億美元的資本。我們將繼續在機會主義的基礎上部署資金進行回購。此外,我們仍然專注於透過研發、對製造足跡和能力的策略性投資以及併購來重新投資業務的機會。
With respect to M&A, we evaluate potential targets on a continuous basis. As always, we continue to apply a strict filter to our evaluation process for any acquisition. From a strategic perspective, we target acquisitions, which will allow us to enhance our capabilities and accelerate our scale in selected markets. Our financial hurdles require that our targets be adjusted EPS accretive in the first year and have a return on investment above our cost of capital by the second year or sooner.
在併購方面,我們持續評估潛在目標。一如既往,我們繼續對任何收購的評估流程進行嚴格的篩選。從策略角度來看,我們的目標是收購,這將使我們能夠增強我們的能力並加速我們在選定市場的規模。我們的財務障礙要求我們的目標在第一年調整為每股盈餘增值,並在第二年或更早的時候獲得高於資本成本的投資回報。
Given our conservative level of leverage and strong adjusted free cash flow generation, we have the financial capacity and the appetite to execute on accretive acquisition if the opportunity presents itself.
鑑於我們保守的槓桿水平和強勁的調整後自由現金流生成,如果機會出現,我們有財務能力和意願執行增值收購。
Finally, I'd like to discuss our financial performance and our current valuation relative to our EMS peers. In recent periods, Celestica has consistently delivered very strong financial performance that is diverged meaningfully from that of our peers in the EMS industry.
最後,我想討論一下我們的財務表現以及相對於 EMS 同行的當前估值。最近一段時間,天弘公司始終保持著非常強勁的財務業績,與 EMS 行業的同行顯著不同。
On a trailing four quarter basis, as of the end of the third quarter, we have delivered revenue growth of 18% compared to an average of a 12% decline for our EMS peer group. In addition, our non-IFRS operating margin has expanded by 90 basis points and our adjusted EPS is up 60% over the same period.
截至第三季末,在過去四個季度的基礎上,我們的收入成長了 18%,而 EMS 同行集團的平均收入下降了 12%。此外,我們的非國際財務報告準則營業利益率擴大了 90 個基點,調整後每股盈餘同期成長了 60%。
We believe our operating performance over the last 12 months has exceeded our peer group, and our outlook through 2025 continues to be very strong. However, our 12 month forward price earnings multiple remains in line with or below the EMS peer group average. In our view, Celestica's consistent strong financial performance is not accurately reflected in our valuation, and presents an opportunity for greater shareholder returns.
我們相信,我們過去 12 個月的經營業績已經超過了同行,並且我們對 2025 年的前景仍然非常樂觀。然而,我們的 12 個月遠期本益比仍與 EMS 同業集團平均值一致或低於平均值。我們認為,天弘一貫強勁的財務表現並沒有準確反映在我們的估值中,反而為股東帶來了更大回報的機會。
With that, I'd now like to turn the call back over to Rob for his closing remarks.
現在,我想將電話轉回給 Rob,讓他作結束語。
Robert Mionis - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director
Robert Mionis - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director
As we conclude our investor meeting, I want to emphasize that our business has a great deal of momentum in our favor. Over the past several years, we have accumulated a track record of delivering strong financial performance and consistent operational execution. We've also proven our ability to evolve having organically built a leading ODM offering. We will continue to execute on our strategic road map, which will position us to capitalize on the significant growth opportunities that lie ahead and ultimately deliver value for our shareholders.
在我們結束投資者會議時,我想強調我們的業務發展勢頭強勁。在過去的幾年裡,我們在提供強勁的財務表現和一致的營運執行方面積累了良好的記錄。我們也透過有機建構領先的 ODM 產品證明了我們的發展能力。我們將繼續執行我們的策略路線圖,這將使我們能夠利用未來的重大成長機會,並最終為我們的股東創造價值。
Thank you for your time and continued support. That concludes our presentation today, and we are now ready to move into Q&A. As a reminder, joining Mandeep and I for Q&A will be Jason Phillips, Todd Cooper, and Steve Dorwart.
感謝您的寶貴時間和持續的支持。我們今天的演講到此結束,現在我們準備進入問答環節。提醒一下,傑森·菲利普斯 (Jason Phillips)、托德·庫珀 (Todd Cooper) 和史蒂夫·多爾瓦特 (Steve Dorwart) 將加入曼迪普和我的問答環節。
Operator, I will now turn the call over to you.
接線員,我現在將電話轉給您。
Operator
Operator
(Operator Instructions) Daniel Chan, TD Cowen.
(操作員說明)Daniel Chan,TD Cowen。
Daniel Chan - Analyst
Daniel Chan - Analyst
A couple of questions on the communications side. Meta put out designs of its new data center networks last week, and that included some Cisco equipment in the new networks. Can you just talk about the potential wallet share dynamics with Cisco coming in as an additional supplier?
關於通信方面的幾個問題。 Meta 上週推出了新資料中心網路的設計,其中包括新網路中的一些思科設備。您能否談談與思科作為額外供應商加入後潛在的錢包份額動態?
Robert Mionis - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director
Robert Mionis - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director
Steve, do you want to take that?
史蒂夫,你想接受這個嗎?
Stephen Dorwart - Senior Vice President, Global Accounts
Stephen Dorwart - Senior Vice President, Global Accounts
Sure. Thanks, Dan. And I think when you think about hyperscalers and how they make the decision, it tends to be a balancing what's the best solution for a particular application. And what is the product availability to meet those deployment objectives which is why we continue to invest in R&D and work closely with key technology providers, to ensure that our platforms are timely and relevant to our target customers in the target markets.
當然。謝謝,丹。我認為,當您考慮超大規模企業以及他們如何做出決策時,往往會平衡特定應用程式的最佳解決方案。滿足這些部署目標的產品可用性是什麼,這就是我們繼續投資研發並與關鍵技術提供者密切合作的原因,以確保我們的平台及時且與目標市場的目標客戶相關。
I believe as a result of the pandemic and the period of constraints that follow, many of our customers realize the need to have a backup plan or a secondary source. We've seen some of our customers qualify off the shelf for OEM solutions as that backup plan rather than creating another custom platform or solution.
我相信,由於疫情和隨後的限制期,我們的許多客戶意識到需要有備份計劃或輔助來源。我們發現一些客戶有資格使用現成的 OEM 解決方案作為備份計劃,而不是創建另一個自訂平台或解決方案。
But fundamentally, we see this category of companies still believes that they can -- that optimized hardware can be a competitive differentiator for them. They still want to pay for what they need and only what they need, and they want to be able to implement new innovations at their own speed. Therefore, we haven't really seen a meaningful shift in any hyperscaler behaviors, which plays to our strategy and our strengths.
但從根本上來說,我們看到這類公司仍然相信他們可以——優化的硬體可以成為他們的競爭優勢。他們仍然希望為他們需要的東西付費,並且只為他們需要的東西付費,並且他們希望能夠以自己的速度實施新的創新。因此,我們還沒有真正看到任何超大規模行為發生有意義的轉變,而這對我們的策略和優勢發揮了作用。
Jason Phillips - President - Connectivity and Cloud Solutions
Jason Phillips - President - Connectivity and Cloud Solutions
Hi, Dan. This is Jason. I would just add to that as well. In terms of how we compete, we believe as a North American-based ODM that has been delivering system and RAC-level solutions across all the core technologies in the data center, that we're in an advantaged position. And while we talk about our HPS portfolio and offering and equated to an ODM offering, I would highlight that not all ODM's value propositions and capabilities are equal.
嗨,丹。這是傑森。我也想補充一下。就我們的競爭方式而言,我們相信,作為一家總部位於北美、一直在資料中心所有核心技術領域提供系統和 RAC 級解決方案的 ODM,我們處於優勢地位。當我們談論我們的 HPS 產品組合和產品並等同於 ODM 產品時,我要強調的是,並非所有 ODM 的價值主張和功能都是相同的。
When we look at what we're doing in the HPS space, in particular, you heard it from Steve and in our prepared remarks, there's a lot of focus on customization for what I would say this customization for optimization, not just at a solution level, a design level, but also at a supply chain level. I mean, we're anticipating geographic requirements are changing rapidly. We've been accounting for that as we've been developing our engineering centers of excellence as well as our manufacturing sites and accounting for that as well as customization of the model. You heard Steve talk about our customers are looking to -- for a specific offering, and that's what they want. They don't necessarily want more than that. That's another area of strength for us as well.
當我們看看我們在HPS 領域所做的事情時,特別是,您從Steve 那裡聽到了,在我們準備好的發言中,我們非常關注定制,我想說的是,這種定制是為了優化,而不僅是解決方案層面,設計層面,還有供應鏈層面。我的意思是,我們預計地理要求正在迅速變化。我們一直在考慮這一點,因為我們一直在開發我們的卓越工程中心以及我們的製造基地,並考慮到這一點以及模型的客製化。您聽到史蒂夫談到我們的客戶正在尋求特定的產品,而這正是他們想要的。他們不一定想要更多。這也是我們的另一個優勢領域。
Daniel Chan - Analyst
Daniel Chan - Analyst
That's very helpful. The other opportunity I wanted to dive into a little bit was on the back-end networks. That seems to be a large opportunity for Ethernet vendors like yourselves. So good to see you guys are leading that charge in 400G as well as it sounds like in 800G. How are your discussions with customers going about the back-end opportunity? Are you guys winning share there? Or are you seeing some share shifts between the different vendors?
這非常有幫助。我想深入研究的另一個機會是後端網路。對於像你們這樣的乙太網路供應商來說,這似乎是一個巨大的機會。很高興看到你們在 400G 領域處於領先地位,聽起來就像在 800G 領域一樣。您與客戶就後端機會的討論如何?你們在那裡贏得份額嗎?或者您發現不同供應商之間的份額發生了一些變化?
Robert Mionis - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director
Robert Mionis - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director
Steve, do you want to start with that one?
史蒂夫,你想從那個開始嗎?
Stephen Dorwart - Senior Vice President, Global Accounts
Stephen Dorwart - Senior Vice President, Global Accounts
Apologies. Yes, we see future solutions really continuing the trend towards Ethernet for both scale-up and scale-out applications. Leading innovations and speed and density are causing this, and we see further improvements coming in this technology with things such as ultra Ethernet for the scale AI applications. Overall, we see a significant increase in Ethernet connectivity and bandwidth to support many of the AI/ML systems, including those that are based around both merchant and custom ASICs, our proprietary ASICs.
抱歉。是的,我們看到未來的解決方案確實延續了針對縱向擴展和橫向擴展應用程式的乙太網路趨勢。領先的創新以及速度和密度導致了這一點,我們看到這項技術的進一步改進,例如用於大規模人工智慧應用的超以太網。總體而言,我們看到乙太網路連接和頻寬顯著增加,以支援許多 AI/ML 系統,包括基於商業和自訂 ASIC(我們專有的 ASIC)的系統。
At the same time, we see just generally AI/ML is generating a lot more data, requiring a lot more networking required to move that data. And further, hyperscalers are adjusting their network architectures from centralized to more distributed architectures to optimize for latency or security or probably more importantly, lately, the availability of power. And so this is requiring more and more and differentiated connectivity solutions, which we're well positioned to support. And we anticipate seeing continued strong demand for these products going forward.
同時,我們普遍看到人工智慧/機器學習正在產生更多的數據,需要更多的網路來移動這些數據。此外,超大規模企業正在將其網路架構從集中式架構調整為更分散式的架構,以優化延遲或安全性,或者最近可能更重要的是電源的可用性。因此,這需要越來越多的差異化連接解決方案,而我們完全有能力支持這些解決方案。我們預計未來對這些產品的需求將持續強勁。
Robert Mionis - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director
Robert Mionis - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director
Yes. And then, I would just add as well in the spirit of the growing Ethernet networking opportunity. We've talked about pivoting and taking our road maps and pivoting from data center into the campus and the edge, and we've been rounding out our road maps to be applicable there. And we're seeing a lot of, I'd say, traction and uptake as we build out our capability, not just our road maps, but also our software capabilities, our open source software in sonic areas like that, that are also creating more opportunities on the networking side for us as well.
是的。然後,本著乙太網路機會不斷增長的精神,我也想補充一下。我們已經討論了轉向和製定路線圖,以及從資料中心轉向園區和邊緣,並且我們一直在完善我們的路線圖以適用於那裡。我想說,當我們建立我們的能力時,我們看到了很多牽引力和吸收力,不僅是我們的路線圖,還有我們的軟體能力,我們在聲音領域的開源軟體,這也在創造我們在網絡方面也有更多機會。
Operator
Operator
Robert Young, Canaccord Genuity.
羅伯特楊,Canaccord Genuity。
Robert Young - Analyst
Robert Young - Analyst
Would love to dig into this Grok win. Why was Celestica chosen? Was a manufacturing partner in the silicon influential? Is there any HPS revenue attached to this and this -- you called it a strategic relationship. Is it a single source? Or are there multiple vendors there? Couple crammed into one.
很想深入了解 Grok 的勝利。為什麼選擇天弘?矽片製造合作夥伴有影響力嗎?是否有任何 HPS 收入與此相關——您稱之為策略關係。它是單一來源嗎?或那裡有多個供應商?一對擠在一起。
Robert Mionis - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director
Robert Mionis - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director
Steve, do you want to start with that one?
史蒂夫,你想從那個開始嗎?
Stephen Dorwart - Senior Vice President, Global Accounts
Stephen Dorwart - Senior Vice President, Global Accounts
Sure. So we see the Grok point as mentioned earlier, is a significant win for us and another important proof point for us entering the AI/ML compute space. Certainly, the industry-leading position that we've established on the networking side has helped us to be credible in this space as a lot of the underlying competencies and technologies that we develop in support of those programs are portable or transferable to this type of product.
當然。因此,我們看到前面提到的 Grok 點對我們來說是一個重大勝利,也是我們進入 AI/ML 運算領域的另一個重要證明點。當然,我們在網路方面建立的行業領先地位幫助我們在這個領域獲得了可信度,因為我們為支持這些程序而開發的許多底層能力和技術都可以移植或轉移到這種類型的網絡上。 。
The initial engagement includes manufacturing predominantly where, today, they have a source that's been providing some of the early preproduction prototype systems. We will enter with that current generation of product, but the plan is to have an increased level of design participation or involvement going forward in future generations of the products, which start nearly immediately. So very happy to have that win, and I think it will really help us build competency and credibility for the future.
最初的參與主要包括製造,如今,他們有一個來源可以提供一些早期的預生產原型系統。我們將進入當前世代的產品,但計劃是在幾乎立即開始的未來幾代產品中提高設計參與度或參與度。非常高興能夠贏得這場勝利,我認為這將真正幫助我們為未來建立能力和信譽。
Robert Young - Analyst
Robert Young - Analyst
But was it built with your own go-to-market? Or was it done with a partner?
但它是根據您自己的市場走向而建構的嗎?還是與夥伴一起完成的?
Stephen Dorwart - Senior Vice President, Global Accounts
Stephen Dorwart - Senior Vice President, Global Accounts
I'm sorry, I missed the first part of that.
抱歉,我錯過了第一部分。
Robert Young - Analyst
Robert Young - Analyst
Sorry. Was this done with your own go-to-market effort or were you brought to this relationship with maybe the silicon manufacturer or things like that?
對不起。這是您自己進入市場的努力完成的,還是您與晶片製造商或類似機構建立了這種關係?
Stephen Dorwart - Senior Vice President, Global Accounts
Stephen Dorwart - Senior Vice President, Global Accounts
Good question. Yes, good question. So it really was our own go-to-market. And we have a strategy, a comprehensive strategy for us to participate in the increased level of AI/ML compute spend across various market segmentations. And so this specialty data center operator is one of the categories that we've selected and that we have aligned ourselves with in terms of our offerings.
好問題。是的,好問題。所以這確實是我們自己的市場開拓。我們有一個策略,一個全面的策略,讓我們能夠參與各個細分市場中人工智慧/機器學習計算支出水準的提高。因此,這個專業資料中心營運商是我們選擇的類別之一,並且我們在產品方面與我們保持一致。
However, we have built very strong relationships with some of the key ecosystem technology providers. And oftentimes, we get endorsements or leads or, in some cases, co-marketing efforts that go on with these companies that ultimately result in award decisions from these customers.
然而,我們與一些關鍵的生態系統技術提供者建立了非常牢固的關係。通常,我們會得到認可或線索,或者在某些情況下,與這些公司進行聯合行銷努力,最終導致這些客戶做出獎勵決定。
Robert Young - Analyst
Robert Young - Analyst
Okay. And then maybe second question would just be around, can you just give an update on the pace and the win rate of the 800 gig programs? Are you still converting all of the 400 gig? Is it happening faster than you expected? And is there any ASP difference that you can call out? Then I'll pass the line.
好的。那麼也許第二個問題就出現了,您能否提供有關 800 場演出項目的進度和獲勝率的最新資訊?您還在轉換所有 400 場演出嗎?它發生的速度比你預期的還要快嗎?您可以指出 ASP 有何差異嗎?那我就過線了。
Stephen Dorwart - Senior Vice President, Global Accounts
Stephen Dorwart - Senior Vice President, Global Accounts
Yes. So certainly, thinking about 800 gig is the continuation of next generation of the 400-gig wins that we've had. We're very happy with the outcome of several different sourcing initiatives with our customers that have resulted in us winning the 800 gig for next-generation products. We have over half a dozen products that we're currently working on today. Many of those will lead to future iterations of those same products for specific applications or architectures. And so we think it's a very significant position to be in here with 800 gig with other potential customers and opportunities still in front of us.
是的。因此,毫無疑問,800 場演出是我們已經取得的 400 場演出勝利的下一代的延續。我們對與客戶進行的多項不同採購計劃的結果感到非常滿意,這些計劃使我們贏得了下一代產品的 800 份訂單。我們目前正在開發六種以上的產品。其中許多將導致未來針對特定應用程式或架構的相同產品的迭代。因此,我們認為,擁有 800 個演出職位,其他潛在客戶和機會仍然擺在我們面前,這是一個非常重要的地位。
But most of those projects, well, all of those projects are very much on track. We have some pressure from customers to accelerate, which is natural. And I think that we're continuing to see strong demand on those products. From an ASP perspective, certainly, the silicon that underlies these designs is going to be more expensive. And our focus is really on value-based pricing and not having pricing specifically tied to the value of a particular part or component. But from a revenue perspective, it will certainly improve the top line on a comparable volume.
但這些項目中的大多數,所有這些項目都非常步入正軌。我們面臨來自客戶的一些加速壓力,這是很自然的。我認為我們將繼續看到對這些產品的強勁需求。當然,從 ASP 的角度來看,這些設計背後的晶片將會更加昂貴。我們的重點實際上是基於價值的定價,而不是將定價與特定零件或組件的價值特別掛鉤。但從收入的角度來看,它肯定會在可比較銷售的基礎上提高營收。
Mandeep Chawla - Chief Financial Officer
Mandeep Chawla - Chief Financial Officer
Rob, it's Mandeep here, so just to add on. ASPs are going up, especially as you go from 400G to 800G, there is that uplift. I think the way to understand it as it impacts our business is we look at it on a portfolio basis. As you know, we do also do 1G and 100G switches and 25G switches. And so from a portfolio perspective, when we look at the year-over-year change in ASPs between below 100, 400, 800, we're seeing probably around a low to mid-single-digit increase on the average ASP. And so of course, you'd apply that to the switching business.
羅布,我是曼迪普,所以補充一下。 ASP 正在上升,特別是當從 400G 上升到 800G 時,就會出現這種上升。我認為理解它對我們業務的影響的方法是我們在投資組合的基礎上看待它。如您所知,我們也生產 1G 和 100G 交換器以及 25G 交換器。因此,從投資組合的角度來看,當我們觀察 ASP 在 100、400、800 以下之間的同比變化時,我們發現平均 ASP 可能會出現低至中個位數的成長。當然,您可以將其應用於交換業務。
Robert Mionis - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director
Robert Mionis - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director
And Rob, I would just comment on the demand piece as well. You touched on the 400G to 800G transition and demand being strong. In some of our remarks today, you've heard the networking requirements. We expect when you look at a data center rack today, 15% to 20% of it's going to comprise of networking, we expect in the next two to three years, but that's going to triple. And so the AI infrastructure investment cycle and the workload is going to drive up the networking requirements. And with that, we're just seeing very strong demand for 400G remain in 2025 and beyond, while we see some very strong demand for 800G picking up in 2025.
羅布,我也會對需求部分發表評論。您談到了 400G 到 800G 的過渡以及強勁的需求。在我們今天的一些演講中,您已經聽到了網路要求。我們預計,當您今天查看資料中心機架時,其中 15% 到 20% 將由網路組成,我們預計在未來兩到三年內,這一數字將增加兩倍。因此,人工智慧基礎設施的投資週期和工作量將推高網路需求。因此,我們看到 2025 年及以後對 400G 的需求仍然非常強勁,而對 800G 的需求將在 2025 年回升。
In terms of 800G wins, another point to call out, in particular, we've had -- I'd say, outside of the hyperscalers, we've had some enterprise customers that have come back and we've started having discussions on 800G again. We had some competitors that were very aggressive with price to get in early on and performance has been a challenge, and we're now circling back to those customers and having fruitful conversations, which I think represent another growth opportunity for us.
就 800G 的勝利而言,還有一點要特別指出,我們已經擁有了——我想說,除了超大規模企業之外,我們已經有一些企業客戶回來了,我們已經開始討論又是800G。我們有一些競爭對手,他們在早期就以價格非常激進的方式進入市場,而性能一直是一個挑戰,我們現在正在回去找這些客戶並進行富有成效的對話,我認為這對我們來說代表著另一個成長機會。
Operator
Operator
Matt Sheerin, Stifel.
馬特謝林,史蒂菲爾。
Matthew Sheerin - Analyst
Matthew Sheerin - Analyst
Thanks for all the information so far. I have a question regarding the guidance for CCS for next year, low double digits. How should we think about growth in the communications segment versus enterprise, particularly with the headwinds that you talked about with servers? Should we expect enterprise to be down for the year and which would imply communications up 20%-plus. So how should we think about that?
感謝迄今為止提供的所有資訊。我有一個關於明年 CCS 指導的問題,低兩位數。我們應該如何看待通訊領域與企業領域的成長,特別是考慮到您談到的伺服器方面的不利因素?如果我們預期今年企業業務會下降,那麼通訊業務將成長 20% 以上。那我們該如何思考呢?
Mandeep Chawla - Chief Financial Officer
Mandeep Chawla - Chief Financial Officer
Matt, it's Mandeep here. Yes, I think you're getting close to it. We continue to have a really strong outlook on enterprise overall on service side, in particular, but as you know, we are in the process right now of seeing a technology transition with our largest customer.
馬特,我是曼迪普。是的,我認為你已經接近它了。我們仍然對企業整體服務方面抱有非常強烈的前景,特別是,但如您所知,我們目前正在與我們最大的客戶進行技術轉型。
And so because of that timing delay, we will see some lower revenue in the first half of 2025 before it starts ramping again in the back half of '25. And then we really do see that growth continuing because we've already now been winning programs for new server programs, which are actually set to begin ramping in early 2026.
因此,由於時間延遲,我們將看到 2025 年上半年收入下降,然後在 25 年下半年開始再次增加。然後我們確實看到這種增長仍在繼續,因為我們現在已經贏得了新伺服器項目的項目,這些項目實際上將於 2026 年初開始增加。
So the overall growth trajectory for enterprise continues to be very strong. But because of that timing of that transition, which we've talked about for a couple of quarters now, we do expect enterprise to be down next year. And that's going to be more than offset, though, by very strong double-digit growth, to your point, above 20% in the communications side, led by increasing levels of deliveries on 800G switches primarily going into next year.
因此,企業的整體成長軌跡仍然非常強勁。但由於我們已經討論了幾個季度的過渡時機,我們確實預計明年企業業務將會下滑。不過,這將被非常強勁的兩位數成長所抵消,就您的觀點而言,通訊方面超過 20%,主要是明年 800G 交換器的交付水準不斷提高。
Matthew Sheerin - Analyst
Matthew Sheerin - Analyst
Okay. Great. And then just on the Enterprise business. Clearly, in communications, you have a moat, right, with that ODM strategy and your own design. But you can argue that within the enterprise and server business, you've got at least two very strong North American competitors and all acquiring different technologies like liquid cooling and power management.
好的。偉大的。然後就是企業業務。顯然,在通訊領域,您有一條護城河,對吧,透過 ODM 策略和您自己的設計。但你可以說,在企業和伺服器業務中,至少有兩個非常強大的北美競爭對手,並且都獲得了不同的技術,例如液體冷卻和電源管理。
And then you've got the ODMs also spreading out in terms of their geographic diversification, et cetera. So I guess the question is, should we expect some incremental pricing pressure in that business? And what's your strategy around that and taking share versus being more disciplined?
然後,ODM 也在地理多樣化等方面進行擴展。所以我想問題是,我們是否應該預期該業務會面臨一些增量定價壓力?您的策略是什麼,分享份額還是更自律?
Jason Phillips - President - Connectivity and Cloud Solutions
Jason Phillips - President - Connectivity and Cloud Solutions
Matt, this is Jason. And maybe I'll start with what I would describe as our competitive differentiation and advantage in the compute, specifically AI/ML and what I described as proprietary compute. First, I'd start with, we've been involved in highly complex custom AI/ML systems and RAC-level solutions now for four product program generations at scale. So that's a long time and identasize the keyword at scale. It takes years to become confident in this area.
馬特,這是傑森。也許我會從我所描述的我們在計算方面的競爭差異和優勢開始,特別是人工智慧/機器學習和我所描述的專有計算。首先,我們已經參與了高度複雜的客製化 AI/ML 系統和 RAC 級解決方案,目前已大規模生產四代產品專案。所以這是一個很長的時間,並且要大規模地識別關鍵字。需要數年時間才能在這一領域變得自信。
And then I'd say it takes years on top of that to become proficient in that space. So while competitors will be looking to get in to do it at scale, it's not easy. It takes time. And we've been making a tremendous amount of investments in that area, both on the engineering as well as the manufacturing side to do that.
然後我想說,除此之外還需要數年時間才能精通該領域。因此,儘管競爭對手會尋求大規模參與,但這並不容易。這需要時間。為此,我們在工程和製造方面都在該領域進行了大量投資。
In terms of some of the announcements, I mean, there's been a flurry of announcements around reference designs, around partnerships. I would say that we were there at one point in time in our past, but we're well down the road and beyond that, innovating at a what I would describe as system level.
就一些公告而言,我的意思是,圍繞著參考設計、合作夥伴關係發布了一系列公告。我想說的是,我們在過去的某個時間點就曾達到過這樣的水平,但我們已經在這條路上走得很遠,並且超越了這一點,在我所描述的系統層面進行創新。
So at the system and the RAC level, we're working with our ecosystem partners to optimize performance at a system level, ultimately to enable our customers. So instead of taking what an ecosystem partner says a certain spec of their solution or component can drive, we're asking them we want you to solve for a system level that's performing at this. What can you do to get us there?
因此,在系統和 RAC 級別,我們正在與生態系統合作夥伴合作,優化系統層級的效能,最終為我們的客戶提供支援。因此,我們不是採用生態系統合作夥伴所說的解決方案或組件的特定規格可以驅動的內容,而是要求他們解決在該層級上執行的系統層級問題。你能做些什麼讓我們到達那裡?
So I think our innovation at a system and a RAC level and the amount of investment we've been making and the time that we've been making it at is a competitive differentiator for us today and moving forward. And I would say that the word is getting out in the industry, we've been fairly quiet about it. We just stayed focused on enabling our customers but that growing -- the capability at scale, I'd say, is growing.
因此,我認為我們在系統和 RAC 層面的創新以及我們一直在進行的投資金額和我們投入的時間對於我們今天和未來來說都是一個競爭優勢。我想說的是,這個消息已經在業界傳開了,我們對此一直保持沉默。我們只是專注於為客戶提供支持,但我想說的是,規模能力正在不斷增長。
And then on the cooling side, we've talked about it in some of our prepared remarks, I mean, we're well down the path there. We've been working on a pump two-phase POC for quite some time. We've got a lot of interest from customers. We're excited about where that can go at a system level, but also at a RAC level and leveraging our networking -- industry-leading networking position there as well.
然後在冷卻方面,我們在一些準備好的發言中討論了這一點,我的意思是,我們已經在這方面走得很遠了。我們研究泵兩相 POC 已經有一段時間了。客戶對我們很有興趣。我們對它在系統層級以及 RAC 層級上的發展感到興奮,並利用我們的網路——業界領先的網路地位。
Matthew Sheerin - Analyst
Matthew Sheerin - Analyst
Okay. Great. And just on the pricing side, are you seeing more pricing pressure or expecting that?
好的。偉大的。僅在定價方面,您是否看到或預期會出現更大的定價壓力?
Robert Mionis - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director
Robert Mionis - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director
Steve, do you want to take that one?
史蒂夫,你想拿走那個嗎?
Stephen Dorwart - Senior Vice President, Global Accounts
Stephen Dorwart - Senior Vice President, Global Accounts
Yes. So I think it's a natural part of the process that our customers are looking for us to drive competitive pricing as well as innovation. But really where we differentiate is on that innovation side. We add a lot of value to our customers by getting involved very early in the product realization process, all the way from design through NPI and launch into product manufacturing.
是的。因此,我認為我們的客戶希望我們推動有競爭力的定價和創新,這是這個過程的自然組成部分。但真正讓我們與眾不同的是創新面。我們透過儘早參與產品實現過程,從設計到 NPI 再到產品製造,為客戶增加了許多價值。
And as you mentioned earlier or characterize these headwinds, we really see this as normal technology transitions and some of it is the nonlinear nature of data center deployments. And we're not really overly concerned as we've recently secured the next generation of AI/ML products from some of our existing customers as well as the introduction of some new customers such as Grok.
正如您之前提到的或描述這些逆風的特徵,我們確實將其視為正常的技術轉型,其中一些是資料中心部署的非線性本質。我們並沒有真正過度擔心,因為我們最近從一些現有客戶那裡獲得了下一代 AI/ML 產品,並引入了一些新客戶(例如 Grok)。
And so further, where we see our customers have made decisions to dual source, and this is where we get some of the direct competitive comparisons, we typically enter those engagements as the lead partner engaging very early in the process, as I mentioned.
此外,正如我所提到的,當我們看到我們的客戶已經決定採用雙源時,這就是我們進行一些直接競爭比較的地方,我們通常會作為主要合作夥伴在流程的早期階段參與這些活動。
And typically maintain exclusivity or near exclusivity for a period of time until the product has really stabilized and ourselves and the customer agree that it's lower risk to bring on a second source. So we continue to see the AI/ML compute systems as another strong area of growth for us going forward.
通常會在一段時間內保持排他性或接近排他性,直到產品真正穩定下來,並且我們和客戶都同意引入第二個來源的風險較低。因此,我們繼續將人工智慧/機器學習運算系統視為我們未來的另一個強勁成長領域。
Robert Mionis - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director
Robert Mionis - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director
And I would just add to that. In terms of the areas where we are dual-sourced on programs, as Steve had mentioned, I would say our performance has allowed us to maintain the majority share there and we remain focused on staying at the top of our customer scorecards.
我想補充一點。就我們雙源專案的領域而言,正如史蒂夫所提到的,我想說我們的表現使我們能夠保持該領域的多數份額,並且我們仍然專注於保持客戶記分卡的領先地位。
Operator
Operator
Thanos Moschopoulos, BMO Capital Markets.
Thanos Moschopoulos,BMO 資本市場。
Thanos Moschopoulos - Analyst
Thanos Moschopoulos - Analyst
Starting off with a question for Mandeep, which is you're guiding for a 6.7% margin in 2025, which is the same as you had in Q3 and as you're guiding for Q4. Any particular puts and takes to think about in terms of why you wouldn't be seeing some margin improvements with operating leverage next year?
首先向 Mandeep 提出一個問題,您預計 2025 年的利潤率為 6.7%,這與您在第三季和第四季的預期相同。是否有任何具體的看跌期權和看跌期權需要考慮,為什麼您明年不會看到營運槓桿帶來的利潤率有所改善?
Mandeep Chawla - Chief Financial Officer
Mandeep Chawla - Chief Financial Officer
Yes, Thanos, good to hear from you. Look, we're happy with the 6.7% we had in the third quarter. It's the highest in the company's history. Really nice to see CCS perform at the levels that they did. Can we expect CCS to perform at that exact number every quarter from now until the end of 2025? Maybe. But at the same time, we're taking into account that there are mix impacts along the way.
是的,薩諾斯,很高興收到你的來信。看,我們對第三季 6.7% 的成長率感到滿意。這是該公司歷史上的最高水準。很高興看到 CCS 達到他們所達到的水平。從現在到 2025 年底,我們能否期望 CCS 每季都能達到這個確切的數字?或許。但同時,我們正在考慮一路上存在的混合影響。
We are expecting margin improvement in overall ATS as we get some better operating leverage. We talked about some of the portfolio actions that have been taken on a program low within A&D. And so we do expect some improving level of margin, but it's going to be more back-end loaded overall.
我們預計,隨著我們獲得更好的營運槓桿,整體 ATS 的利潤率將有所改善。我們討論了 A&D 內部針對某個專案採取的一些組合行動。因此,我們確實預期利潤率會有所提高,但整體而言後端負載會更大。
So we think right now, the 6.7% is something that we're highly confident in. And we're really happy to see the flow to the bottom line to drive 15% EPS growth right now. And again, we just want to kind of -- I'd say, reiterate two things. One is it's our high confidence view, what we're giving right now for 2025. And in addition, it's October as well. And so we do look forward as we get some firmer customer forecasts over the coming months to give an update in January.
因此,我們現在認為,6.7% 是我們非常有信心的。再說一遍,我們只是想重申兩件事。一是我們對 2025 年的看法充滿信心。因此,我們確實期待在未來幾個月獲得一些更確定的客戶預測,並在一月提供更新。
Thanos Moschopoulos - Analyst
Thanos Moschopoulos - Analyst
Great. And then a question probably for Jason, which is, if I look at your mix within CCS of the non-hyperscaler business, I guess, predominantly the OEM business, it seems like that's relatively flat or will be down a little bit in '24 versus '23. Anything to call out there? Is that just reflective of your focus from really the higher-margin hyperscale or HPS opportunities or anything to call out?
偉大的。然後可能要問 Jason 一個問題,那就是,如果我看看 CCS 中非超大規模業務的組合,我猜,主要是 OEM 業務,看起來相對平穩,或者在 24 年會略有下降與'23相比。那裡有什麼要喊的嗎?這是否僅僅反映了您對利潤率更高的超大規模或 HPS 機會或其他值得關注的機會的關注?
Jason Phillips - President - Connectivity and Cloud Solutions
Jason Phillips - President - Connectivity and Cloud Solutions
Yes, it's a great question, Thanos. I'm pleased with, one, the growth of the overall business, but also the diversification inside the overall portfolio. We've seen some really strong diversification inside the hyperscaler business.
是的,這是一個很好的問題,薩諾斯。我對整體業務的成長以及整體投資組合的多元化感到滿意。我們已經看到超大規模業務內部存在一些非常強大的多元化。
And then additionally, we've got our portfolio solutions and services businesses, which we spent a lot of time investing in creating capability and building out the front end, and we're starting to see real fruit from those efforts now. So portfolio solutions, again, is leveraging our HPS platforms as they are, oftentimes enabled with open source software like Sonic.
此外,我們還有我們的組合解決方案和服務業務,我們花了很多時間投資於創造能力和建立前端,現在我們開始看到這些努力的真正成果。因此,產品組合解決方案再次利用我們的 HPS 平台,通常透過 Sonic 等開源軟體來啟用。
And on that business, I'm expecting that business to triple over the next three years. And we've recently just secured a major win with a large retailer that you would know by name as an example of one of the proof points and the success that we're having in that business. And we're establishing a number of channel partnerships there. So I feel good about the growth prospects there and the extent of the value proposition that those customers leverage from us.
在該業務上,我預計該業務在未來三年內將成長兩倍。最近,我們剛剛與一家大型零售商取得了重大勝利,您可能知道這家零售商的名字,這就是我們在該業務中取得的成功的證據之一。我們正在那裡建立一些通路合作夥伴關係。因此,我對那裡的成長前景以及這些客戶從我們那裡利用的價值主張的程度感到滿意。
And then when we look at our services business, with the recent acquisition of NCS Global, we've really bolstered our overall IT asset disposition capability, which is going to help us help our customers manage their assets throughout their product life cycle. When you look at the amount of infrastructure that is being deployed now, the upgrade cycles that are going to be happening, we're very well positioned to help service their services needs as well as their IT asset disposition requirements. And when I look over the next three years, I expect our ITAD business to triple as well. So overall, pleased with the progress and excited about what 2025 brings.
然後,當我們審視我們的服務業務時,透過最近收購 NCS Global,我們確實增強了整體 IT 資產處置能力,這將幫助我們幫助客戶在整個產品生命週期中管理其資產。當您查看現在正在部署的基礎架構數量以及即將發生的升級週期時,我們非常有能力協助滿足他們的服務需求以及 IT 資產處置要求。展望未來三年,我預計我們的 ITAD 業務也將成長兩倍。總的來說,我們對進展感到滿意,並對 2025 年帶來的事情感到興奮。
Operator
Operator
Steven Fox, Fox Advisors.
史蒂文‧福克斯,福克斯顧問公司。
Steven Fox - Analyst
Steven Fox - Analyst
I had two questions. First off, on the ATS prospects, top line prospects for getting back to 10% revenue growth. Can you just sort of walk through the risks and opportunities there? This is the second year being below it, understanding the track record of growth. Like where does -- you see the churn in that business to get back on that type of trajectory. And then I had a follow-up.
我有兩個問題。首先,關於 ATS 前景,營收成長恢復 10% 的頂線前景。能簡單介紹一下那裡的風險和機會嗎?這是連續第二年低於該水平,了解成長記錄。就像在哪裡一樣——你會看到該行業的流失,以回到那種類型的軌跡。然後我進行了跟進。
Todd Cooper - President - Advanced Technology Solutions
Todd Cooper - President - Advanced Technology Solutions
Okay. Steven, Todd Cooper here. I'd say from an ATS point of view, we are focused on getting back to the 10% year-over-year growth. We have been impacted, I think, and I've read a number of your reports, and I think you covered it quite well. But in our industrial segment, which is the largest of the four ATS segments, we've really been impacted over the last year by what I'll call, a bubble of customer inventory that was really created coming at COVID and the extreme material constraints that happened in '21, '22, first half of '23, left a lot of our customers with just a significant amount of inventory they had to burn through that's been -- we've been partnering with our customers. They've been working through that inventory over the last 12 months. We see the industrial market broadly beginning to stabilize. And with a path to return to growth next year.
好的。史蒂文,托德庫柏在這裡。我想說,從 ATS 的角度來看,我們的重點是恢復 10% 的年成長。我認為我們受到了影響,我讀過您的一些報告,我認為您對此進行了很好的闡述。但在我們的工業領域,這是四個ATS 領域中最大的一個領域,去年我們確實受到了我所說的客戶庫存泡沫的影響,這種泡沫實際上是在新冠疫情和極端的材料限制下產生的。過去 12 個月他們一直在清查該庫存。我們看到工業市場普遍開始穩定。並預計在明年恢復成長。
I say all of that, again, in context of our largest segment, with the one caveat that EV chargers -- maybe two caveats, EV chargers and factory automation, which comprise our -- part of our industrial segment. We think they're still sitting on elevated levels of inventory really driven by the high expectations for those businesses versus the reality of their demand. We see positive demand not negative, but we think in those two areas of industrial will likely be the second half of next year before they return to more normal demand.
我再說一遍,在我們最大的細分市場的背景下,有一個警告是電動車充電器——也許有兩個警告,電動車充電器和工廠自動化,它們構成了我們工業領域的一部分。我們認為,他們的庫存水準仍然很高,這實際上是由於對這些企業的高期望與他們的實際需求相比造成的。我們看到積極的需求而不是消極的,但我們認為這兩個工業領域很可能要到明年下半年才會恢復到更正常的需求。
So I'd say that's probably been the largest detractor. Capital equipment has been strong this year, candidly stronger than we expected. We're seeing another strong year ahead in '25 and even '26 beyond that. If you look at the UBS report that came out in September with most analysts still, and many of our customers, still projecting $1 trillion semiconductor market by 2030, which would imply $150 billion to $170 billion of semiconductor equipment versus the $96 billion level we're at today.
所以我想說這可能是最大的批評者。今年資本設備表現強勁,明顯強於我們的預期。我們預計 25 年甚至是 26 年將迎來另一個強勁的一年。如果你看一下9 月發布的瑞銀報告,大多數分析師和我們的許多客戶仍然預測到2030 年半導體市場將達到1 兆美元,這意味著半導體設備的價值將達到1500 億至1700 億美元,而我們的水準為960 億美元。
And then in HealthTech, our smallest, and I'll pause after that. In HealthTech, which is our smallest segment, we've actually won a number of large finished product programs in diabetes and imaging and diagnostics. Because they're finished products, they take two to three years to ramp. We're in the early stages of those ramps, and I fully expect that our HealthTech business will double based on, again, this already won and ramping business over the next three to four years.
然後是我們最小的健康科技,之後我會暫停一下。在我們最小的細分市場健康科技領域,我們實際上贏得了糖尿病、影像和診斷領域的許多大型成品專案。因為它們是成品,所以需要兩到三年的時間才能完成。我們正處於這些成長的早期階段,我完全預計我們的健康科技業務將在未來三到四年內基於已經贏得的業務和不斷增長的業務而翻倍。
Steven Fox - Analyst
Steven Fox - Analyst
Great. That's really helpful. And then just as a follow-up. If I think about just stepping back, big picture on the CCS business, it seems like the Holy Grail is to be doing as much as you can on the RAC that you showed on slide 11. And you've sort of alluded to different ways that you're going about sort of leveraging different component wins into more system wins, et cetera.
偉大的。這真的很有幫助。然後作為後續行動。如果我退一步考慮 CCS 業務的大局,似乎聖杯是在幻燈片 11 中展示的 RAC 上盡您所能。等。
Can you sort of give us a perspective on that vision and the vision for services? Like how much does that sort of contribute to growth now versus what it could be? And what kind of work do you have to do to really, where possible, gain more share of wallet at like big customers?
您能為我們介紹一下這願景和服務願景嗎?例如,與未來相比,這種做法對現在的成長有何貢獻?您需要做哪些工作才能真正在可能的情況下從大客戶那裡獲得更多的錢包份額?
Jason Phillips - President - Connectivity and Cloud Solutions
Jason Phillips - President - Connectivity and Cloud Solutions
Thanks, Steven, this is Jason. Yes. So I mean, ultimately, that is the goal is to enable our customers, which is with as many of the systems in the rack as possible. We made a very conscious decision back in 2009 when we started in HPS and ODM to focus at a system level and we had a very strong storage position then. We continue to today doing business with four of the top six and now taking what I'd call our enterprise-class storage solutions into the hyperscaler market, which has got some exciting potential.
謝謝,史蒂文,這是傑森。是的。所以我的意思是,最終的目標是讓我們的客戶能夠使用盡可能多的機架中的系統。早在 2009 年,我們就做出了一個非常有意識的決定,當時我們開始涉足 HPS 和 ODM,並專注於系統級別,當時我們擁有非常強大的儲存地位。今天,我們繼續與前六名中的四家開展業務,現在將我所說的企業級儲存解決方案帶入超大規模市場,該市場具有一些令人興奮的潛力。
And then we developed networking in this industry-leading networking position now focused very much on the high end of the data center. 400G was our big breakthrough. We've now moved into 800G, secured all the wins in 800 where we had 400G engagements, and we just announced a big 1.6 terabit win with, what I would say, an exponential amount of interest from 800 to 1.6 that continues to grow. And so we've got an industry-leading position there on the merchant side of silicon.
然後我們在這個行業領先的網絡地位上開發了網絡,現在非常關注高端數據中心。 400G是我們的重大突破。我們現在已經進入 800G,在 400G 參與的 800 中獲得了所有勝利,我們剛剛宣布了 1.6 太比特的巨大勝利,我想說的是,興趣從 800 到 1.6 呈指數級增長,並且持續增長。因此,我們在晶片商業方面處於行業領先地位。
And then AI/ML compute where we've just announced, in addition to having what I call an industry-leading custom ASIC AI/ML position. We are developing a modular HPS AI/ML platform that will be able to support both merchant and custom silicon types, and we're very excited about the prospects there. We just recently announced a partnership with AMD, where we're going to prove that out on MI 325.
然後是我們剛剛宣布的 AI/ML 計算,此外還有我所說的業界領先的客製化 ASIC AI/ML 職位。我們正在開發一個模組化 HPS AI/ML 平台,該平台將能夠支援商業和客製化晶片類型,我們對其前景感到非常興奮。我們最近剛剛宣布與 AMD 建立合作夥伴關係,我們將在 MI 325 上證明這一點。
So you can see our progression from 2009 to where we are. We remain focused at innovating at a system level and enabling our customers with optimized solutions for their applications and for their software and that naturally progresses and translates into RAC-level solutions where we're doing, I'd say, more RAC-level orchestration and it's different than just system integration. It's RAC-level orchestration for our customers.
所以您可以看到我們從 2009 年到現在的進展。我們仍然專注於系統層面的創新,為客戶的應用程式和軟體提供最佳化的解決方案,並自然地發展並轉化為 RAC 層級的解決方案,我想說,我們正在做更多 RAC 層級的編排它不僅僅是系統整合。這是為我們的客戶提供的 RAC 級編排。
So again, we're going to remain focused on enabling them. We've been making significant investments. Since 2009, we're approaching $0.5 billion of R&D investment as we approach the end of 2024. And all that is culminating into a robust portfolio of system and RAC-level solutions.
因此,我們將繼續專注於支持它們。我們一直在進行重大投資。自 2009 年以來,隨著 2024 年底的臨近,我們的研發投資接近 5 億美元。
Operator
Operator
Jesse Pytlak, Cormark.
傑西·皮特拉克,科馬克。
Jesse Pytlak - Analyst
Jesse Pytlak - Analyst
Just coming back to the digital natives. Are a lot of the discussions that you're having with this group, are they kind of like the Grok win where it sounds like starting off manufacturing and then the idea is eventually to move into design? Or are you having designed discussions with some of these parties already?
回到數位原住民。您與這個團隊進行的許多討論是否有點像 Grok 的勝利,聽起來像是從製造開始,然後這個想法最終進入設計?或者您已經與其中一些團體進行了設計討論?
Robert Mionis - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director
Robert Mionis - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director
Steve, why don't you take that one?
史蒂夫,你為什麼不拿走那個?
Stephen Dorwart - Senior Vice President, Global Accounts
Stephen Dorwart - Senior Vice President, Global Accounts
Sure. Yes. I think it's really both. In many cases, when we look at these kinds of opportunities, one of the key decision criteria when we're assessing the strategic fit of these companies as a potential customer is really about the opportunity to have more design involvement and to have a broader offering or have them need the broader offering that we can provide.
當然。是的。我認為這確實是兩者兼而有之。在許多情況下,當我們考慮這些機會時,當我們評估這些公司作為潛在客戶的策略契合度時,關鍵決策標準之一實際上是有機會參與更多設計並提供更廣泛的產品或讓他們需要我們可以提供的更廣泛的產品。
So it's not unusual to start the relationship on current generation product. It helps kind of as a pipe cleaner. It allows us to get familiar with each other and familiar with the products and some real-time experience that's applicable into next generation. So it's not uncommon to start out that way.
因此,在當前世代產品上建立合作關係並不罕見。它有點像管道清潔劑。它使我們能夠相互熟悉,熟悉產品以及一些適用於下一代的即時體驗。因此,以這種方式開始並不少見。
However, we have others where they look at the portfolio of platform solutions that we have. They look at ways that they can potentially iterate and customize and in some cases, use as is in their infrastructure or in their racks. And so that often leads to a fair amount of HPS participation right from the beginning.
然而,我們也有其他人關注我們擁有的平台解決方案組合。他們研究可以迭代和定制的方法,並在某些情況下在其基礎設施或機架中按原樣使用。因此,這通常會從一開始就吸引大量的 HPS 參與。
Jesse Pytlak - Analyst
Jesse Pytlak - Analyst
That's helpful. And if you could, can you maybe just characterize like their aggressiveness in terms of spending? Like are they ready to really open the wallet? Or are they still trying to solidify their planning?
這很有幫助。如果可以的話,您能否描述一下他們在支出方面的侵略性?就像他們準備好真正打開錢包了嗎?還是他們仍在努力鞏固他們的計劃?
Stephen Dorwart - Senior Vice President, Global Accounts
Stephen Dorwart - Senior Vice President, Global Accounts
Yes, it varies. I hate to give the depends answer, but it kind of depends on where they are in their development. In some cases, these are emerging companies, they have some niche kinds of technologies and have a market that's very interested in those kinds of solutions and offerings. And so it does vary a bit from customer to customer, but it's again part of our criteria, and we look at the kinds of companies that we think we can really bring differentiated value to and that we want to align with.
是的,它有所不同。我不想給出取決於答案,但這在某種程度上取決於他們的發展階段。在某些情況下,這些是新興公司,他們擁有一些利基技術,並且擁有對此類解決方案和產品非常感興趣的市場。因此,每個客戶的情況確實有所不同,但這又是我們標準的一部分,我們會關注那些我們認為能夠真正為其帶來差異化價值並且希望與之保持一致的公司。
Todd Cooper - President - Advanced Technology Solutions
Todd Cooper - President - Advanced Technology Solutions
And Jesse, I would just add to that, with these companies, there's a willingness to leverage a broader portion of the value proposition that we can deliver right away. Sometimes, it takes time to build up that relationship with customers where they take more advantage of the value proposition that we can help enable them with. I'd say with this customer class, there's a greater willingness right out of the gate to get scaling as quickly as possible and leverage many of the services that we offer.
傑西,我想補充一點,對於這些公司來說,他們願意利用我們可以立即提供的更廣泛的價值主張。有時,與客戶建立關係需要時間,這樣他們才能更好地利用我們可以幫助他們實現的價值主張。我想說,對於這一類客戶,他們一開始就更願意盡快擴大規模並利用我們提供的許多服務。
Operator
Operator
Paul Treiber, RBC Capital Markets.
Paul Treiber,加拿大皇家銀行資本市場部。
Paul Treiber - Analyst
Paul Treiber - Analyst
Just a high-level question on customer mix and diversification within CCS. You did speak about the opportunity with digital natives. But the large Tier 1 hyperscalers are still and probably will be a large portion of the market. How do you see your opportunity with other large Tier 1 hyperscalers? And what's the strategy to drive in and capture more share with those?
只是一個關於 CCS 內客戶組合和多元化的高級問題。您確實談到了數位原住民的機會。但大型一級超大規模企業仍然並且可能將佔據市場的很大一部分。您如何看待與其他大型一級超大規模供應商合作的機會?推動並獲得更多份額的策略是什麼?
Robert Mionis - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director
Robert Mionis - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director
Paul, maybe I'll start and then Steve can add some color here. So we continue to do business with the top five hyperscalers. And I would say, I'm very pleased with the amount of diversification, as I mentioned a bit earlier, that's taken place there. Outside of our largest customer, we've seen tremendous growth with our other hyperscaler customers. And we've got, I'd say, very promising discussions ongoing in terms of building upon that growth. So strong diversification.
保羅,也許我會開始,然後史蒂夫可以在這裡添加一些顏色。因此,我們繼續與排名前五的超大規模企業開展業務。我想說,正如我之前提到的,我對那裡發生的多元化程度感到非常滿意。除了我們最大的客戶之外,我們還看到其他超大規模客戶的巨大成長。我想說,我們正在就推動這一增長進行非常有希望的討論。如此強大的多元化。
Stephen Dorwart - Senior Vice President, Global Accounts
Stephen Dorwart - Senior Vice President, Global Accounts
I would just add to that, that I mentioned earlier a comprehensive strategy to participate across many of these growing markets, specifically those being driven by AI and ML applications. So from the hyperscalers with cloud services, the specialized clouds, the large enterprise and even working with OEMs and working through channels to address some of the SMB opportunities. So we have a strategy to go broad process.
我想補充一點,我之前提到了參與許多這些不斷成長的市場的全面策略,特別是那些由人工智慧和機器學習應用程式驅動的市場。因此,從擁有雲端服務的超大規模企業、專業雲端、大型企業,甚至與 OEM 合作並透過管道來抓住一些中小企業機會。所以我們有一個策略來進行廣泛的流程。
When we think about the hyperscalers, they tend to be the drivers or the pioneers of new technologies. And oftentimes, those technologies have a long life after the hyperscalers have moved on to the next thing. So it's always part of the strategy to look at opportunities, to leverage the investments that we've made, the scale that we've achieved and the relationships that we have with the ecosystem partners to have compelling solutions across that broad market.
當我們想到超大規模企業時,他們往往是新科技的驅動者或先驅。通常,在超大規模企業轉向下一個技術之後,這些技術的壽命很長。因此,尋找機會、利用我們所做的投資、我們已實現的規模以及我們與生態系統合作夥伴的關係,始終是策略的一部分,以便在廣闊的市場上提供引人注目的解決方案。
Paul Treiber - Analyst
Paul Treiber - Analyst
And then a follow-up question. I mean, you've discussed pricing. And looking at this market, how are hyperscalers at this point? Are they taking price into consideration as one of the top priorities yet? Do you expect that, that would happen at some point in the future where they may become more price sensitive than maybe what they have been in the last 12, 18, 24 months or so?
然後是後續問題。我的意思是,你們已經討論過定價。看看這個市場,超大規模企業目前狀況如何?他們是否將價格作為首要考慮因素之一?您是否預計這種情況會在未來某個時刻發生,他們可能會比過去 12、18、24 個月左右對價格更加敏感?
Robert Mionis - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director
Robert Mionis - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director
Steve?
史蒂夫?
Stephen Dorwart - Senior Vice President, Global Accounts
Stephen Dorwart - Senior Vice President, Global Accounts
Yes. Thanks for that question. I think that -- as I mentioned before, when we think about pricing and the hyperscalers and their approach to pricing there's always a component of pricing availability and performance and kind of ease of doing business or the criteria, I think, they usually assess their suppliers based on. And oftentimes, with leading-edge new technologies, that performance and availability is a key driver, followed closely by pricing.
是的。謝謝你提出這個問題。我認為,正如我之前提到的,當我們考慮定價和超大規模提供者以及他們的定價方法時,總會有定價可用性和性能以及開展業務的便利性或標準的一個組成部分,我認為,他們通常會評估他們的定價供應商基於。通常,對於領先的新技術,性能和可用性是關鍵驅動因素,其次是價格。
And so as we think about just the pricing piece of that, as I mentioned before, it's really about moving to a more value-based pricing and finding more areas or opportunities for us to add value into the overall system. So there's a number of make-versus-buy decisions that occur within something as complex as the RAC. There's combi modules, there's mix. There's other subsystems, CPU modules and power and fan complexes, those kinds of things. And so we look at the ways that we can add value across the entire RAC or the entire system, which contributes to stronger pricing.
因此,當我們考慮其中的定價部分時,正如我之前提到的,這實際上是轉向更基於價值的定價,並為我們尋找更多領域或機會為整個系統增加價值。因此,在像 RAC 這樣複雜的系統中會出現許多自製還是外購的決策。有組合模組,有混合。還有其他子系統、CPU 模組、電源供應器和風扇複合體,諸如此類的東西。因此,我們研究如何在整個 RAC 或整個系統中增加價值,這有助於提高定價能力。
We also like to look at ways to gain control of key commodities. So sometimes our hyperscale customers like to have source control and stay closely aligned to some of the key commodities. But we're always finding ways to become more competitive there.
我們也想尋找獲得關鍵商品控制權的方法。因此,有時我們的超大規模客戶喜歡進行原始碼控制並與一些關鍵商品保持密切聯繫。但我們一直在尋找提高競爭力的方法。
And with some commodities, when you think about it, the only companies that buy more volume than hyperscalers are companies that are aggregating the demand of several end users like ourselves. And so we're always looking for ways and working diligently to find these kinds of opportunities to ensure that our pricing remains competitive, and our solutions are compelling.
對於某些商品,當你考慮一下時,唯一比超大規模企業購買量更多的公司是聚合像我們這樣的多個最終用戶的需求的公司。因此,我們一直在尋找方法並努力尋找此類機會,以確保我們的定價保持競爭力,並且我們的解決方案引人注目。
Operator
Operator
Todd Coupland, CIBC.
托德·庫普蘭,CIBC。
Todd Couplan - Analyst
Todd Couplan - Analyst
I was wondering if you could bridge the gap. You talked about roughly 30% growth in CCS end markets, yet when we look at hyperscaler CapEx for 2025, it's more or less low double-digit growth. And I'm just wondering, why is it that low? And are you basically implying in your views that, that growth rate is actually going to accelerate in 2025? Some commentary on the market would be appreciated.
我想知道你能否彌補這個差距。您談到了 CCS 終端市場大約 30% 的成長,但當我們考慮 2025 年超大規模資本支出時,它或多或少是低兩位數的成長。我只是想知道,為什麼這麼低?您的觀點基本上是在暗示,2025 年成長率實際上會加速嗎?對市場的一些評論將不勝感激。
Mandeep Chawla - Chief Financial Officer
Mandeep Chawla - Chief Financial Officer
Todd. Mandeep here. It's nice to talk to you. Yes, sorry if it wasn't clear, but let me just clarify our revenue outlook overall. So the $10.4 billion is 8% overall for the company. Again, it's our high confidence view. We're seeing right now low double-digit growth in CCS. And we're seeing low single-digit growth in ATS. I know you didn't ask it, but this is around on the ATS side, good level of growth across the portfolio. We're expecting everyone to grow. We are seeing the impact of that program decision that we've made in A&D offsetting some of the growth. And then some of the growth that we're expecting in industrial is more back-end loaded.
托德。曼迪普在這裡。很高興和你說話。是的,如果不清楚,抱歉,但讓我澄清一下我們的整體收入前景。因此,104 億美元占公司整體份額的 8%。同樣,這是我們高度自信的觀點。我們目前看到 CCS 的兩位數成長。我們看到苯丙胺類興奮劑的低個位數成長。我知道你沒有問過,但這是 ATS 方面的問題,整個投資組合的成長水準良好。我們期待每個人都能成長。我們看到我們在 A&D 領域做出的計劃決策的影響抵消了部分成長。然後,我們預計工業領域的一些成長更多的是後端負載。
On the CCS side, as I talked a little bit earlier on, the enterprise, because of the program transitions, we do expect to see some level of decline next year. That's going to be more than offset on the communications side. Communications will be probably up above 20%, 20% to 25%. So overall, we're really pleased with the growth.
在 CCS 方面,正如我之前談到的,企業方面,由於計劃的過渡,我們確實預計明年會出現一定程度的下降。這在通信方面將遠遠抵消。通訊可能會成長 20% 以上、20% 到 25%。總的來說,我們對成長感到非常滿意。
To your point on the hyperscaler CapEx, it is one thing that we are watching. Consensus numbers are only one thing and then, of course, taking market share is another. But right now, hyperscaler CapEx in 2024 is going to be -- is very, very strong as everyone knows. I think consensus is somewhere in the mid-30% range. Consensus right now for hyperscaler CapEx next year is in the low double digits. And so that's reflected in our outlook right now.
對於您關於超大規模資本支出的觀點,這是我們正在關注的一件事。當然,共識數字只是一回事,佔據市場佔有率則是另一回事。但目前,眾所周知,超大規模企業在 2024 年的資本支出將會非常非常強勁。我認為共識在 30% 的中間範圍。目前對於明年超大規模資本支出的共識是低兩位數。這反映在我們現在的前景。
The one thing I will say when we talk about the high confidence, though, is we have very good open forecast conversations with our customers, which go -- with our hyperscaler customers which go out about 12 months. And so we have some pretty robust forecast right now for Q1, Q2 and Q3. What we don't have is very robust forecast yet for the fourth quarter. And so that's one of the areas that we're really working on over the coming months to shore that up. So that's why when we come back in January, we're hoping we can give an update in that regard.
不過,當我們談論高信心時,我要說的一件事是,我們與客戶進行了非常好的公開預測對話,這些對話與我們的超大規模客戶進行了大約 12 個月的對話。因此,我們現在對第一季、第二季和第三季有一些相當強勁的預測。我們還沒有對第四季度的非常強勁的預測。因此,這是我們在未來幾個月真正致力於支持這一目標的領域之一。這就是為什麼當我們一月份回來時,我們希望能夠提供這方面的更新。
Todd Couplan - Analyst
Todd Couplan - Analyst
I guess, my follow-up on that is, and again, this is more of a market question. We hear companies like Snowflake say there isn't one Fortune 500 company in production with Gen AI applications. What do you think about that? Like it seems like the market adoption still has a ways to go, and there's going to be digestion period. So I guess from our perspective, it seems like some of that is baked into the hyperscaler CapEx for next year. Just wondering at a corporate level, what you think about that as well.
我想,我的後續行動是,這更多的是市場問題。我們聽說像 Snowflake 這樣的公司表示,沒有一家財富 500 強公司正在使用 Gen AI 應用程式進行生產。你對此有何看法?看來市場的採用還有很長的路要走,而且還會有一個消化期。因此,我認為從我們的角度來看,其中一些似乎已納入明年的超大規模資本支出。只是想知道在公司層面,您對此有何看法。
Jason Phillips - President - Connectivity and Cloud Solutions
Jason Phillips - President - Connectivity and Cloud Solutions
Todd, yes, this is Jason. I guess, one comment I would make on the CapEx numbers. It's important to recognize that inside of those numbers include everything that makes the data center work, including power, property, plant, equipment, all of that, right? So that -- there's a lot that goes into that bucket. And so when we look at our growth rates and where the hyperscalers are deploying their CapEx, I'd say we feel very good about our level of growth. Steve, I don't know if there's anything you'd want to add to that.
托德,是的,這是傑森。我想,我會對資本支出數字發表評論。重要的是要認識到,這些數字中包含了使資料中心正常運作的所有內容,包括電力、財產、工廠、設備,所有這些,對吧?所以——這個桶子裡有很多東西。因此,當我們看到我們的成長率以及超大規模企業部署其資本支出的地方時,我想說我們對我們的成長水平感到非常滿意。史蒂夫,我不知道你是否還有什麼要補充的。
Stephen Dorwart - Senior Vice President, Global Accounts
Stephen Dorwart - Senior Vice President, Global Accounts
No, I think it's well said unless there's follow-on questions.
不,我認為這說得很好,除非有後續問題。
Mandeep Chawla - Chief Financial Officer
Mandeep Chawla - Chief Financial Officer
Todd, I'll just add on to reiterate. We talked about 2025 already, it's our high confidence view. We're really encouraged right now that we are already winning programs, which are set to ramp starting in 2026. We've won new AI server programs with our largest customer, which are not in our 2025 forecast, which are going to ramp in early 2026.
托德,我只是補充一下重申。我們已經談到了 2025 年,這是我們高度自信的觀點。我們現在真的很受鼓舞,因為我們已經贏得了項目,這些項目將於2026 年開始增加。這些項目將在2025 年開始增加2026 年初。
We continue to see we will be seeing the impact of the 1.6T program. We believe that's the first in the industry, which is going to be ramping in 2026. And we're having very active discussions with a number of hyperscalers on programs that could begin in '25, that began in '26 and even programs that begin in '27. And so of course, we have to take this one year at a time. But the conversations with our customers at the program level are very encouraging.
我們將繼續看到 1.6T 計劃的影響。我們相信這是業界的首例,並將在2026 年加速推進。 。當然,我們必須一年一次地進行這個工作。但在專案層面與客戶的對話非常令人鼓舞。
Operator
Operator
There are no further questions at this time. I will now hand the call back to Mr. Rob Mionis for any closing remarks.
目前沒有其他問題。現在,我將把電話轉回給 Rob Mionis 先生,讓他發表結束語。
Robert Mionis - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director
Robert Mionis - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director
Thank you, operator, and thank you all for joining us this evening. Overall, I'm pleased with the execution of our strategy and that it continues to yield results. I'm also quite encouraged that our momentum is continuing into 2025 and beyond. Frankly, the products that we have in development right now give us the confidence in our outlook and our future is certainly quite bright. We look forward to updating you in January, and have a good evening.
謝謝接線員,也謝謝大家今晚加入我們。總的來說,我對我們策略的執行以及它繼續產生的成果感到滿意。我們的勢頭將持續到 2025 年及以後,這也讓我深受鼓舞。坦白說,我們現在正在開發的產品讓我們對前景充滿信心,我們的未來肯定是非常光明的。我們期待在一月份為您提供最新消息,祝您晚上愉快。
Operator
Operator
Thank you. And this concludes today's call. Thank you for participating. You may all disconnect.
謝謝。今天的電話會議到此結束。感謝您的參與。你們都可以斷開連線。