Clean Energy Fuels Corp (CLNE) 2022 Q4 法說會逐字稿

Greetings, and welcome to the Clean Energy Fuels Fourth Quarter 2022 Earnings Conference Call. (Operator Instructions)

您好，歡迎來到清潔能源燃料 2022 年第四季度收益電話會議。 （操作員說明）

I would like to turn the conference over to your host, Mr. Robert Vreeland. Thank you. You my begin.

我想將會議轉交給您的主持人 Robert Vreeland 先生。謝謝。你我的開始。

Thank you, operator. Earlier this afternoon, Clean Energy released financial results for the quarter end, year ending December 31, 2022. If you did not receive the release, it is available on the Investor Relations section of the company's website at www.cleanenergyfuels.com, where the call is also being webcast. There will be a replay available on the website for 30 days.

謝謝你，運營商。今天下午早些時候，Clean Energy 發布了截至 2022 年 12 月 31 日的季度末財務業績。如果您沒有收到該發布，請訪問公司網站 www.cleanenergyfuels.com 的投資者關係部分，其中電話也在網絡廣播中。網站上將提供 30 天的重播。

Before we begin, we'd like to remind you that some of the information contained in the news release and on this conference call contains forward-looking statements that involve risks, uncertainties and assumptions that are difficult to predict. Words of expression reflecting optimism, satisfaction with current prospects as well as words such as believe, intend, expect, plan, should, anticipate and similar variations identify forward-looking statements, but their absence does not mean that the statement is not forward-looking. Such forward-looking statements are not a guarantee of performance, and the company's actual results could differ materially from those contained in such statements. Several factors that could cause or contribute to such differences are described in detail in the Risk Factors section of the Clean Energy's Form 10-K filed today. These forward-looking statements speak only as of the date of this release. The company undertakes no obligation to publicly update any forward-looking statements or supply new information regarding the circumstances after the date of this release.

在我們開始之前，我們想提醒您，新聞稿和本次電話會議中包含的一些信息包含前瞻性陳述，這些陳述涉及難以預測的風險、不確定性和假設。反映樂觀、對當前前景滿意的表達詞語以及諸如相信、打算、期望、計劃、應該、預期和類似變體等詞語識別前瞻性陳述，但它們的缺失並不意味著該陳述不是前瞻性的.此類前瞻性陳述不是業績保證，公司的實際結果可能與此類陳述中包含的結果存在重大差異。今天提交的清潔能源 10-K 表格的風險因素部分詳細描述了可能導致或促成此類差異的幾個因素。這些前瞻性陳述僅代表本新聞稿發布之日的情況。公司沒有義務在本新聞稿發布之日後公開更新任何前瞻性陳述或提供有關情況的新信息。

The company's non-GAAP EPS and adjusted EBITDA will be reviewed on this call and exclude certain expenses that the company's management does not believe are indicative of the company's core business operating results. Non-GAAP financial measures should be considered in addition to results prepared in accordance with GAAP, and should not be considered as a substitute for or superior to GAAP results. The directly comparable GAAP information, reasons why management uses non-GAAP information, a definition of non-GAAP EPS and adjusted EBITDA and a reconciliation between these non-GAAP and GAAP figures is provided in the company's press release, which has been furnished to the SEC on Form 8-K today.

公司的非 GAAP 每股收益和調整後的 EBITDA 將在本次電話會議上進行審查，並排除公司管理層認為不能代表公司核心業務經營業績的某些費用。除了根據 GAAP 編制的結果外，還應考慮非 GAAP 財務措施，不應將其視為替代或優於 GAAP 結果。公司新聞稿中提供了直接可比的 GAAP 信息、管理層使用非 GAAP 信息的原因、非 GAAP 每股收益和調整後 EBITDA 的定義以及這些非 GAAP 和 GAAP 數據之間的對賬，該新聞稿已提供給SEC 今天的 8-K 表格。

With that, I will turn the call over to our President and Chief Executive Officer, Andrew Littlefair.

有了這個，我將把電話轉給我們的總裁兼首席執行官 Andrew Littlefair。

Thank you, Bob. Good afternoon, everyone, and thank you for joining us. We continue to make excellent progress on the execution of our RNG business strategy over the last quarter. With our investments in renewable natural gas facilities and new stations, we expanded our leadership position. Clean Energy remains the largest supplier of RNG used as a transportation fuel in North America. In the important California market, more than half the RNG used to fuel natural gas vehicles is from clean energy.

謝謝你，鮑勃。大家下午好，感謝您加入我們。上個季度，我們在執行 RNG 業務戰略方面繼續取得出色進展。通過對可再生天然氣設施和新站的投資，我們擴大了我們的領導地位。清潔能源仍然是北美用作運輸燃料的最大可再生天然氣供應商。在重要的加利福尼亞市場，用於為天然氣汽車提供燃料的 RNG 有一半以上來自清潔能源。

In 2022, our California RNG portfolio had a weighted average carbon intensity of minus 51%, which demonstrates the success of our RNG strategy to develop and secure the lowest carbon RNG available in the market. We expect the carbon intensity of our product to continue to decline as our dairy investments begin producing gas this year. We funded our joint ventures for the projects underway while strengthening our balance sheet, leaving us well positioned for the future. The fourth quarter of last year, we sold over 54 million gallons of RNG, which was an increase of 21% compared to the same quarter in 2021.

2022 年，我們的加州 RNG 產品組合的加權平均碳強度為負 51%，這表明我們的 RNG 戰略在開發和確保市場上碳含量最低的 RNG 方面取得了成功。隨著我們的乳製品投資今年開始產氣，我們預計我們產品的碳強度將繼續下降。我們為正在進行的項目資助我們的合資企業，同時加強我們的資產負債表，讓我們為未來做好準備。去年第四季度，我們銷售了超過 5400 萬加侖的 RNG，與 2021 年同期相比增長了 21%。

The expansion of our relationship with Amazon is having a positive impact on this growth. We're also seeing increased demand for the clean fuel from other heavy-duty trucking firms as well as transit, refuse and other sectors. Our revenue for the quarter came in at $114 million, which was $22 million more than Q4 2021. We generated $13 million of adjusted EBITDA for the quarter. Bob will get into more details about our financial performance momentarily. But let me just say, we acknowledge that our 2022 adjusted EBITDA number ended up lower than we expected it to be at the beginning of the year. We experienced a few sustained headwinds in the latter part of the year that impacted our results. The biggest contributor to this was the lower prices of the environmental credits of California's low carbon fuel standard program or LCFS, federal RINs program.

我們與亞馬遜關係的擴展對這一增長產生了積極影響。我們還看到其他重型卡車運輸公司以及運輸、垃圾和其他行業對清潔燃料的需求增加。我們本季度的收入為 1.14 億美元，比 2021 年第四季度多 2200 萬美元。本季度我們產生了 1300 萬美元的調整後 EBITDA。 Bob 稍後會詳細介紹我們的財務業績。但我只想說，我們承認我們 2022 年調整後的 EBITDA 數字最終低於我們年初的預期。我們在今年下半年經歷了一些影響我們業績的持續逆風。造成這種情況的最大因素是加州低碳燃料標準計劃或 LCFS、聯邦 RIN 計劃的環境信用價格較低。

The LCFS credit prices declined almost 60% over the course of the year, and it was just too much to overcome in the fourth quarter. Also, the rollout of the new stations that we are building for Amazon around the country has been slower than we projected. Competition for prime real estate near distribution centers, entitlements and permitting approvals put several stations behind our initial time line for completion. We believe we've turned the corner on several of the issues that have hindered us and slowed our station construction. Also, we believe we are at the lows of the environmental credit and regulatory situation and credit prices should improve over the medium term.

LCFS 信貸價格在這一年中下降了近 60%，而第四季度的下降幅度太大了。此外，我們在全國范圍內為亞馬遜建設的新站點的推出速度比我們預期的要慢。對配送中心附近優質房地產的競爭、權利和許可批准使我們的初始完工時間表落後了幾個站。我們相信我們已經解決了一些阻礙我們並減緩我們車站建設的問題。此外，我們認為我們正處於環境信貸和監管形勢的低谷，信貸價格應該會在中期內有所改善。

And as I previously mentioned, we continue to be pleased with the way we are performing on our plans that we've laid out to you over a year ago to expand our business, particularly having more control over the supply of low-carbon RNG flowing to our fueling infrastructure with 13 dairy projects underway. We remain confident that the investments we're making today will generate attractive returns in the future. But for 2023, we believe we will continue to see pressure on the environmental credit prices. And another step to position us for future growth, we secured a $150 million sustainability-linked loan with Riverstone Credit Partners last quarter. This should keep our balance sheet healthy as we continue to build fueling stations and additional RNG facilities with our partners, Hotel Energy's and BP.

正如我之前提到的，我們繼續對我們一年多前向您制定的計劃的執行方式感到滿意，以擴大我們的業務，特別是對低碳 RNG 流動供應的更多控制到我們正在進行的 13 個乳製品項目的加油基礎設施。我們仍然相信，我們今天所做的投資將在未來產生可觀的回報。但到 2023 年，我們相信我們將繼續看到環境信貸價格的壓力。為了讓我們為未來的增長做好準備，我們在上個季度從 Riverstone Credit Partners 獲得了 1.5 億美元的可持續發展相關貸款。隨著我們繼續與我們的合作夥伴 Hotel Energy's 和 BP 一起建設加油站和額外的 RNG 設施，這應該會使我們的資產負債表保持健康。

At the end of 2022, we had over $263 million in cash and investments. This is after contributing nearly $178 million into our RNG production joint ventures since their inception and expanding our fueling infrastructure by funding 23 additional station projects during 2022. Speaking of new RNG production, it doesn't seem that long ago, I participated in the groundbreaking at Del Rio Dairy in the Texas Panhandle, which is Clean Energy's first biogas digester to be built from the ground up. I'm pleased to announce today that as a few weeks ago, the methane captured from the manure produced by Del Rio's 8,000 dairy cows is now being injected as renewable natural gas into the pipeline.

到 2022 年底，我們擁有超過 2.63 億美元的現金和投資。這是在我們的 RNG 生產合資企業自成立以來投入了近 1.78 億美元，並在 2022 年期間通過資助 23 個額外的加油站項目擴大了我們的燃料基礎設施之後。說到新的 RNG 生產，似乎不久前，我參加了開創性的在得克薩斯州狹長地帶的 Del Rio Dairy，這是清潔能源公司第一個從頭開始建造的沼氣池。我今天很高興地宣布，與幾週前一樣，從 Del Rio 的 8,000 頭奶牛產生的糞便中捕獲的甲烷現在正作為可再生天然氣注入管道。

At capacity will flow at a rate of 140,000 MMBtus ultimately translating into 1.1 million gallons of ultra low carbon fuel at Clean Energy stations annually. We've also made a good progress at other dairies with construction underway on projects in Iowa, Minnesota, Idaho and 3 in South Dakota. Engineering has begun at another 5 sites. Overall, we are pleased with the progress of our new RNG supply facilities. Remember that when these dairy digesters begin to produce RNG over the next 2 years, this fuel will receive some of the lowest carbon intensity scores available for our customers and generate the greatest number of credits. No other alternative fueling solution comes close to the negative CI scores that RNG produced at agricultural facilities received. And the beauty is that R&G drops right into the existing pipelines and into our existing fueling infrastructure.

容量將以 140,000 MMBtus 的速度流動，最終每年在清潔能源站轉化為 110 萬加侖的超低碳燃料。我們在其他乳品廠也取得了良好進展，愛荷華州、明尼蘇達州、愛達荷州和南達科他州的 3 個項目正在建設中。工程已經在另外 5 個站點開始。總體而言，我們對新 RNG 供應設施的進展感到滿意。請記住，當這些乳製品消化器在未來 2 年內開始生產 RNG 時，這種燃料將獲得我們客戶可用的最低碳強度分數，並產生最多的信用額度。沒有其他替代燃料解決方案能夠接近在農業設施生產的 RNG 獲得的負 CI 分數。美妙之處在於，R&G 直接進入現有管道和我們現有的加油基礎設施。

On the RNG demand side, as I previously mentioned, we opened new stations as part of our announced agreement with Amazon. In addition to the 80-odd existing Clean Energy stations that have been supporting the Amazon fleet of heavy-duty trucks. New stations in 4 states have been added to our fueling network. All these stations are purpose-built for Amazon, but also have public access and are strategically located in and around distribution centers, along for fleets from a variety of companies of fuel with RNG. One station that has been only open for a few months has already become our largest by monthly volume. There are another handful of stations that we'll be opening in the next few months with a robust schedule through the rest of this year.

在 RNG 需求方面，正如我之前提到的，作為我們與亞馬遜宣布的協議的一部分，我們開設了新站。除了一直支持亞馬遜重型卡車車隊的 80 多個現有清潔能源站。 4 個州的新加油站已添加到我們的加油網絡中。所有這些加油站都是為亞馬遜專門建造的，但也有公共通道，並且戰略性地位於配送中心及其周圍，以及來自各種使用 RNG 燃料的公司的車隊。一個只開了幾個月的站已經成為我們月流量最大的站。在接下來的幾個月裡，我們將開放另外幾個車站，並在今年餘下時間里以穩健的時間表開放。

We are particularly excited that these stations will be open and accessible for truck fleets on the new Cummins 15-liter natural gas engine hits the market next year. As the commercial introduction of heavy-duty electric trucks and the required charging infrastructure continues to get pushed out. This next generation of Cummins natural gas engines, combined with our already installed RNG fueling infrastructure, we'll accelerate fleet's ability to reach their emissions reduction goals a lot quicker. Before I close, I wanted to mention that we added one of the largest transit agencies in the country as our customer in the fourth quarter. San Diego MTS, which signed a contract for 86 million gallons of RNG fuel for its fleet of 764 buses. We also renewed an RNG contract with the largest transit agency in the country, LA Metro during Q4, and we'll be supplying them 20 million gallons of RNG annually for their bus fleet.

令我們特別興奮的是，這些加油站將在明年投放市場的新型康明斯 15 升天然氣發動機上開放並供卡車車隊使用。隨著重型電動卡車的商業引入和所需的充電基礎設施不斷推出。下一代康明斯天然氣發動機，結合我們已經安裝的 RNG 燃料基礎設施，我們將加速車隊更快地實現減排目標的能力。在我結束之前，我想提一下，我們在第四季度增加了該國最大的運輸機構之一作為我們的客戶。聖地亞哥 MTS 簽署了一份合同，為其 764 輛公共汽車車隊提供 8600 萬加侖的 RNG 燃料。我們還在第四季度與該國最大的運輸機構 LA Metro 續簽了 RNG 合同，我們將為他們的公交車隊每年提供 2000 萬加侖的 RNG。

Our relationships with refuse customers continues to expand during the quarter with new contracts with after the services, Vertec Waste and additional stations for Republic Services. Remain as optimistic as ever about the future of renewable natural gas, both as a direct transportation fuel as well as for an ultra clean feedstock for other alternatives. We have quickly become one of the largest developers and owners of dairy RNG production and are growing our leadership position in the distribution of RNG.

我們與垃圾客戶的關係在本季度繼續擴大，與售後服務、Vertec Waste 和 Republic Services 的其他站點簽訂了新合同。對可再生天然氣的未來一如既往地保持樂觀，既可以作為直接運輸燃料，也可以作為其他替代品的超清潔原料。我們已迅速成為乳製品 RNG 生產的最大開發商和所有者之一，並正在提升我們在 RNG 分銷方面的領導地位。

Thank you for your time today. And now I'll hand the call over to Bob.

謝謝你今天的時間。現在我會把電話轉給鮑勃。

Thank you, Andrew, and good afternoon to everyone. As reported today, we finished 2022 with $420 million in revenue and a GAAP loss of $59 million versus 2021 revenues of $256 million and a GAAP loss of $93 million. Our adjusted EBITDA for 2022 was $50 million versus $57 million in adjusted EBITDA last year, which last year included $4 million of earn-outs from our sale of RNG assets to BP. On an adjusted non-GAAP basis, we reported net income for the year 2022 of approximately $3 million versus non-GAAP net income of approximately $8 million in 2021.

謝謝安德魯，大家下午好。正如今天報導的那樣，到 2022 年，我們的收入為 4.2 億美元，GAAP 虧損為 5900 萬美元，而 2021 年的收入為 2.56 億美元，GAAP 虧損為 9300 萬美元。我們 2022 年調整後的 EBITDA 為 5000 萬美元，而去年調整後的 EBITDA 為 5700 萬美元，其中去年包括我們將 RNG 資產出售給 BP 的 400 萬美元收益。在調整後的非 GAAP 基礎上，我們報告 2022 年的淨收入約為 300 萬美元，而 2021 年的非 GAAP 淨收入約為 800 萬美元。

Now, although our adjusted EBITDA fell short of our estimate of approximately $60 million, the variances to our estimates were temporary in nature, we believe, and timing related in terms of volume associated with station builds and SG&A spending. In our view, nothing systemic or permanent in nature. For example, we thought there could be some rebound in the LCFS credit prices during the fourth quarter, and the LCFS credit prices actually remained at their lowest level of the year throughout the fourth quarter. Now LCFS prices have gone up recently, so a little later than we anticipated, but still moving up as we thought as additional information is kind of hitting the marketplace around that program.

現在，雖然我們調整後的 EBITDA 低於我們估計的約 6000 萬美元，但我們認為，我們估計的差異本質上是暫時的，並且時間與車站建設和 SG&A 支出相關的數量有關。在我們看來，本質上沒有系統性或永久性的東西。例如，我們認為 LCFS 信貸價格在第四季度可能會出現一些反彈，而 LCFS 信貸價格實際上在整個第四季度都保持在年度最低水平。現在 LCFS 價格最近上漲了，所以比我們預期的要晚一點，但仍然像我們認為的那樣上漲，因為更多信息正在圍繞該計劃衝擊市場。

We also saw the price of natural gas double for the month of December in California, increasing the equivalent of $1 a gallon in our largest market. And we had some delays in station openings, which pushed out volumes. And our fourth quarter SG&A spending increase, which was largely due to really our own success in adding personnel to accommodate our RNG growth activities. Looking forward, we believe we have upsides ahead given where the credit prices are today, knowing we're much closer to opening more stations to support Amazon and our RNG dairy projects continue to proceed well with tailwinds from the inflation Reduction Act ahead of us.

我們還看到加利福尼亞州 12 月份的天然氣價格翻了一番，在我們最大的市場上每加侖上漲了 1 美元。而且我們在車站開放方面有一些延遲，這推高了銷量。我們第四季度的 SG&A 支出增加，這主要是由於我們成功地增加了人員以適應我們的 RNG 增長活動。展望未來，鑑於目前的信貸價格，我們相信我們還有上行空間，因為我們知道我們離開設更多加油站來支持亞馬遜更近了，而且我們的 RNG 乳製品項目在我們面前的通脹削減法案的推動下繼續順利進行。

And with that, I mean, I'll go into our 2023 outlook here in a moment. I'd like to take a moment here. Just as a reminder on our presentation, we've presented our volumes and revenue tables in our new format in our Form 10-K that we filed today. We made this change in the third quarter on our -- in our 10-Q filing, where we separated fuel volumes and the O&M service volumes, and we enhanced our revenue disclosures around our volume-related product and service revenues. So with that, I wanted to inform you that today, we posted an updated company presentation on our Investor Relations website that provides this new volume and revenue table format for all 4 quarters of 2022 in the back of that presentation that was posted. We have had some questions on visibility to the first quarters of '22 in the new format. So we're accommodating there.

有了這個，我的意思是，我稍後會在這裡介紹我們的 2023 年展望。我想在這里花點時間。正如在我們的演示文稿中提醒的那樣，我們在今天提交的 10-K 表格中以新格式展示了我們的銷量和收入表。我們在第三季度對我們做出了這一改變 - 在我們的 10-Q 文件中，我們將燃料量和 O＆M 服務量分開，並且我們加強了我們圍繞與量相關的產品和服務收入的收入披露。因此，我想通知您，今天，我們在我們的投資者關係網站上發布了一份更新的公司演示文稿，該演示文稿的背面提供了 2022 年所有 4 個季度的新數量和收入表格式。我們對新格式下 22 年第一季度的可見性有一些疑問。所以我們在那裡住宿。

So now taking a closer look at the fourth quarter of 2022, our revenues were $113.8 million compared to $91.9 million a year ago, with higher volumes and fuel prices, along with higher station construction sales in the fourth quarter of 2022, contributed to the increase over 2021. With the lower environmental credit prices in 2022, offsetting some of those revenue increases. We reported a GAAP net loss of $12.3 million in the fourth quarter of 2022 compared to a GAAP net loss of $2.4 million in 2021. On a non-GAAP basis, adjusted EBITDA for the fourth quarter of 2022 was $12.6 million and the adjusted non-GAAP net income was $2 million. That's for the fourth quarter of 2022.

因此，現在仔細觀察 2022 年第四季度，我們的收入為 1.138 億美元，而一年前為 9190 萬美元，銷量和燃料價格的上漲，以及 2022 年第四季度車站建設銷售額的增加，促成了這一增長2021 年以上。隨著 2022 年環境信貸價格的降低，抵消了部分收入增長。我們報告 2022 年第四季度的 GAAP 淨虧損為 1230 萬美元，而 2021 年的 GAAP 淨虧損為 240 萬美元。在非 GAAP 基礎上，2022 年第四季度調整後的 EBITDA 為 1260 萬美元，調整後的非GAAP 淨收入為 200 萬美元。這是 2022 年第四季度的數據。

This compares to adjusted EBITDA of $18 million and adjusted non-GAAP net income of $6.4 million in the fourth quarter of 2021. Our -- for the quarter, our overall product and service margins were slightly higher in the fourth quarter of 2022 versus 2021, despite the lower credit prices. However, our spending on growing our R&D business was higher in 2022 as expected and planned. And as well, as I mentioned, 2021, benefited from the earn-out income of approximately $4 million when comparing the 2 periods. Andrew noted that we finished the year with approximately $264 million in cash and investments, which included proceeds from a debt raise of $150 million in December. As part of that financing, we paid off the equipment financing debt at NG Advantage of approximately $27 million.

相比之下，2021 年第四季度調整後的 EBITDA 為 1800 萬美元，調整後的非 GAAP 淨收入為 640 萬美元。本季度，我們的整體產品和服務利潤率在 2022 年第四季度略高於 2021 年，儘管信貸價格較低。然而，我們在 2022 年用於發展研發業務的支出如預期和計劃的那樣增加。而且，正如我提到的，2021 年在比較這兩個時期時受益於大約 400 萬美元的收入。 Andrew 指出，我們在這一年結束時擁有大約 2.64 億美元的現金和投資，其中包括 12 月份 1.5 億美元的債務融資所得。作為融資的一部分，我們還清了 NG Advantage 約 2700 萬美元的設備融資債務。

Also, as of the end of December 31, 2022, we had contributed -- we have contributed $178 million into our RNG supply joint ventures with our partners, Total Energy's and BP. Cash provided by operating activities for 2022 was $66.7 million, and we had -- that's against -- we had $44.5 million of property and equipment purchases. These are both up from 2021, where operating cash flow was $41.3 million and property and equipment purchases was $23.1 million. So nice on the cash front.

此外，截至 2022 年 12 月 31 日，我們已經做出貢獻——我們已經向我們與合作夥伴 Total Energy 和 BP 的 RNG 供應合資企業貢獻了 1.78 億美元。 2022 年經營活動提供的現金為 6670 萬美元，而我們購買了 4450 萬美元的財產和設備。這些均高於 2021 年，當時運營現金流為 4130 萬美元，財產和設備採購為 2310 萬美元。在現金方面非常好。

Now looking at 2023, we normally provide annual guidance, which we'll do here. We've provided our annual outlook in our press release for a GAAP net loss of a range of $105 million to $115 million, which is reconciled to our outlook for adjusted EBITDA of a range of $50 million to $60 million. On the GAAP net loss, you'll note a large increase in the Amazon warrant incentive charge, which is associated with an estimated volume increase for Amazon in 2023 as we complete more stations. Revenues are projected to be around $350 million. That's our GAAP revenue. That's net of around $66 million in these incentive charges.

現在看看 2023 年，我們通常會提供年度指導，我們將在此處提供。我們在新聞稿中提供了 GAAP 淨虧損範圍為 1.05 億美元至 1.15 億美元的年度展望，這與我們調整後 EBITDA 範圍為 5,000 萬至 6,000 萬美元的展望相一致。在 GAAP 淨虧損中，您會注意到亞馬遜認股權證激勵費用大幅增加，這與亞馬遜在 2023 年隨著我們完成更多站點的估計數量增加有關。收入預計約為 3.5 億美元。那是我們的 GAAP 收入。這是扣除這些獎勵費用後的約 6600 萬美元。

Our 2023 outlook reflects continued double-digit fuel volume growth in the range of 15% to 20%. And much of that is R&D, which is also projected to grow in that same range. Service volumes growth is expected to be in the mid-single-digit range. Our outlook reflects environmental credit prices that really don't rebound much from what we saw in the fourth quarter of '22 and starting 2023. So as we know, those have been -- they were lower in the fourth quarter. And so we're kind of seeing that continuing on in 2023, and our outlook contemplates that.

我們對 2023 年的展望反映出燃料量將繼續保持兩位數的增長，範圍在 15% 到 20% 之間。其中大部分是研發，預計也將在同一範圍內增長。服務量增長預計將處於中等個位數範圍內。我們的前景反映了環境信貸價格與我們在 2022 年第四季度和 2023 年開始看到的情況相比並沒有太大反彈。據我們所知，這些價格在第四季度有所下降。因此，我們看到這種情況會在 2023 年繼續下去，我們的展望也考慮到了這一點。

Our SG&A spend will increase slightly to around $30 million per quarter, which is up a little bit from the fourth quarter as we've added personnel at the end of '22. And our -- the stock compensation kind of levels out, but that is about $5 million to $6 million higher in 2023 versus 2022. We're estimating around $25 million to $30 million of cash flow from operations, mostly reflecting added interest costs, and our CapEx spend is estimated around $90 million. That's at the core business of Clean Energy. We may also contribute up to $40 million more into our RNG supply joint ventures, and that's on top of the $178 million that we've already contributed. And frankly, that doesn't bring in potential pipeline. And for this exercise, that's really what we have good line of sight on it, but it could be higher.

我們的 SG&A 支出將略微增加至每季度約 3000 萬美元，這比第四季度略有增加，因為我們在 22 年底增加了人員。我們的 - 股票薪酬有點趨於平穩，但 2023 年比 2022 年高出約 500 萬至 600 萬美元。我們估計來自運營的現金流量約為 2500 萬至 3000 萬美元，主要反映了增加的利息成本，以及我們的資本支出估計約為 9000 萬美元。這是清潔能源的核心業務。我們還可能向我們的 RNG 供應合資企業再捐助 4000 萬美元，這是在我們已經捐助的 1.78 億美元之外的。坦率地說，這並沒有帶來潛在的管道。對於這次演習，這確實是我們對它的良好視線，但它可能會更高。

Clearly, the credit pricing environment, inflation and industry volatility have changed from the beginning of 2022, but we feel very good about the view forward and upside possibilities with continued volume growth, the tailwinds from the inflation Reduction Act and the forthcoming launch of the Cummins 15-liter engine and just frankly, the continued demand for this very low carbon fuel of RNG.

顯然，信貸定價環境、通貨膨脹和行業波動性從 2022 年初開始發生了變化，但我們對前瞻性和上行可能性感到非常滿意，因為交易量持續增長、通貨膨脹減少法案的推動以及康明斯即將推出15 升發動機，坦率地說，對 RNG 這種極低碳燃料的持續需求。

With that, operator, please open the call to questions.

有了這個，接線員，請打開問題電話。

(Operator Instructions) Our first question comes from Manav Gupta with UBS.

（操作員說明）我們的第一個問題來自瑞銀集團的 Manav Gupta。

I first wanted just if you could -- you mentioned earlier on the call 13 dairies in progress. So if you could help us understand the pace of development here, what stage of development are they? And if you could be a little more granular and let us know how many of those should be online by end of first half or by year-end? And the bigger question I'm trying to get to here is, Bob, is it looks like the dairies are in progress, but you're not really accounting for too much of EBITDA contribution from these dairies in 2023. That's why the guidance is relatively flat. So if you could talk about that also.

如果可以的話，我首先想要的是——你之前在電話會議上提到了 13 個正在進行的奶牛場。那麼，如果您能幫助我們了解這裡的發展速度，它們處於什麼發展階段？如果你能更詳細一點，讓我們知道到上半年或年底之前，其中有多少應該在線？我想問的更大的問題是，鮑勃，看起來乳製品生產正在進行中，但你並沒有真正考慮到這些乳製品在 2023 年的 EBITDA 貢獻太多。這就是為什麼指導是比較平坦。所以，如果你也可以談談這個。

Correct. Okay. I'll address that. You're correct, Manav. Actually, we've even a year ago, we kind of we contemplated 2023 would be minimal contribution. So we will be flowing gas in a number of projects, but there's time between flowing gas and revenue recognition, which has to do with the whole pathway certification and when we really can get to meaningful revenue. So you're correct, there's not much of a contribution there in '23. And then we'll see how '24 kind of shakes out. And just for sure, as we go into '25 and '26, and there you start to get into the inflation Reduction Act and contributions that could happen there. So that's why.

正確的。好的。我會解決這個問題。你是對的，馬納夫。實際上，我們甚至在一年前就考慮過 2023 年的貢獻會很小。所以我們將在一些項目中流動天然氣，但在流動天然氣和收入確認之間有一段時間，這與整個途徑認證以及我們何時真正可以獲得有意義的收入有關。所以你是對的，23 年的貢獻不大。然後我們將看到 24 年的情況如何。可以肯定的是，當我們進入 25 年和 26 年時，您將開始討論通貨膨脹減少法案和可能在那裡發生的貢獻。所以這就是為什麼。

But Manav also say a big part of the forecast being kind of flat as well is the credit price deal. We -- going into the fourth quarter, we felt that there would be more information about kind of the pathway forward, if you will, particularly in California. But we also knew the RIN had information there that just didn't really materialize in our view, very meaningful. So the market kind of stayed flat. We're not going to kind of say that, that try to predict exactly when that will turn around. We're bullish on it and know that we believe that it will. But we're -- that's just a big part of the flatness because we're kind of assuming fairly recent credit prices stick around.

但 Manav 還表示，預測的很大一部分也是持平的，因為信貸價格交易。我們 - 進入第四季度，我們認為會有更多關於前進道路的信息，如果你願意的話，特別是在加利福尼亞州。但我們也知道 RIN 那裡的信息在我們看來並沒有真正實現，非常有意義。所以市場有點持平。我們不會那樣說，試圖準確預測這種情況何時會好轉。我們看好它，並且知道我們相信它會。但我們 - 這只是持平的很大一部分，因為我們有點假設最近的信貸價格保持不變。

On the dairies -- yes, on the dairies, look, they're probably 9 of those are -- well, 7, 8 or constructing for sure, and I think we'll get a number of those absolutely -- well, one is already flowing gas, and we'll get maybe 4 or 5 in '23. But again, you're not really seeing an EBITDA. But which is okay. That's a long time, and we've recognized that. But we're also very mindful of the execution on operational execution on these, which is going well. I mean, I think we've experienced some of the delays that a lot of the folks in the industry are seeing just on equipment and things like that. But relative to -- it's pretty exciting to finally start injecting gas into the commercial pipeline at one of our dairies. So that's one of the keys as well as getting those things running.

在奶牛場——是的，在奶牛場，看，它們可能是其中的 9 個——好吧，7 個、8 個或肯定在建造，我想我們絕對會得到一些——好吧，一個已經在流動氣體，我們可能會在 23 年得到 4 或 5 個。但同樣，您並沒有真正看到 EBITDA。但沒關係。那是很長一段時間，我們已經認識到這一點。但我們也非常注意這些操作執行的執行情況，進展順利。我的意思是，我認為我們已經經歷了很多業內人士在設備和類似事情上看到的一些延遲。但相對於 - 最終開始在我們的一家乳品廠向商業管道注入氣體是非常令人興奮的。所以這是關鍵之一，也是讓這些東西運行起來的關鍵之一。

Bob, my quick follow-up here is, if I remember correctly, and let me know if I'm wrong. But last year, the RNG Analyst Day, you had come out with a full budget, I think, somewhere between 1.2% to 1.4%, which was what you would have to put in to develop this RNG offering and take it to the gallon volumes that you were targeting. And what I'm wondering here is with the IRA, Inflation Reduction Act and direct pay, there's a 30% ITC credit now. So in your mind, does that final CapEx number that you need to develop your RNG offering fully, does it drop by 25%, 30%? If you could talk about that.

鮑勃，我的快速跟進是，如果我沒記錯的話，如果我錯了請告訴我。但去年，在 RNG 分析師日，你提出了一個完整的預算，我認為在 1.2% 到 1.4% 之間，這是你必須投入的開發這個 RNG 產品並將其提高到加侖量你的目標。我在這裡想知道的是 IRA、通貨膨脹減少法案和直接支付，現在有 30% 的 ITC 信貸。因此，在您看來，完全開發 RNG 產品所需的最終資本支出數字是否下降了 25%、30%？如果你能談談那個。

Well, I think, Manav, of course, the ITC will apply, and it will reduce our capital by 30%. Now that tends to flow in a year after. But I mean, no, that's real. And so it will lighten the capital load by 30%. Our projects will qualify. And you're right, that is the scope when we talked about a year ago to get to the roughly 100 million gallons of our own equity projects, RNG projects. That number still holds. We still believe that's a good number. And so there's more work to be done, and there's more money to be raised. There's more debt to be organized. There are a lot of opportunities, a lot of projects still to come. We feel good about the projects 13 that we have underway, which if you look back 18 months ago, we moved quickly.

好吧，我想，Manav，當然，ITC 會申請，它將減少我們 30% 的資本。現在這往往會在一年後流動。但我的意思是，不，那是真的。因此，它將減輕 30% 的資本負擔。我們的項目將符合條件。你是對的，這就是我們一年前談到的大約 1 億加侖我們自己的股權項目 RNG 項目的範圍。這個數字仍然成立。我們仍然認為這是一個很好的數字。因此，還有更多工作要做，需要籌集更多資金。有更多的債務需要組織。有很多機會，還有很多項目要來。我們對正在進行的項目 13 感到滿意，如果您回顧 18 個月前，我們會迅速行動。

There's -- we have a robust pipeline of more projects. We haven't lost any -- through all of it, even with the reduction of the credit prices. We haven't lost any enthusiasm. What we try to stay focused on here is we have the lowest carbon fuel that's commercially available today in the world. And there are a lot of regulatory policy folks speaking at all sorts of different levels and projecting how that fuel should be used and how it might be used and trying to micromanage the way the market will work. But what we know is we have a really low carbon fuel that can be used today that can be disseminated in the nation's pipelines now. And when we look at that fuel and we compare it to the other technologies that are available that most people want to talk about right now, we feel very well positioned. So there's more to be done, and you'll see that come on. And so don't be surprised if you see us continue to do things to move along that pathway that we all talked about a year ago because we haven't lost any interest in that.

有 - 我們有更多項目的強大管道。我們沒有損失任何東西——通過所有這一切，即使信貸價格下降。我們沒有失去任何熱情。我們在這裡努力專注於我們擁有當今世界上可商購的最低碳燃料。並且有很多監管政策人員在各種不同級別發表講話，預測應該如何使用這種燃料以及如何使用它，並試圖對市場運作方式進行微觀管理。但我們所知道的是，我們有一種真正低碳的燃料，可以在今天使用，現在可以在國家的管道中傳播。當我們審視這種燃料並將其與大多數人現在想要談論的其他可用技術進行比較時，我們感覺自己處於非常有利的位置。所以還有更多工作要做，你會看到它的到來。因此，如果您看到我們繼續沿著我們一年前談到的這條道路前進，請不要感到驚訝，因為我們對此沒有失去任何興趣。

Our next question is from Rob Brown with Lake Street Capital Markets.

我們的下一個問題來自湖街資本市場的 Rob Brown。

Andrew and Bob, I just wanted to double check. Did you say $350 million of revenue looking at here, was that the fuel volume revenue or of the total revenue?

安德魯和鮑勃，我只是想仔細檢查一下。你說這裡的 3.5 億美元收入是燃料量收入還是總收入？

That was total. That's net of -- I'm just -- put it out there, that's net of about $66 million in noncash incentives.

那是完全的。這是淨額——我只是——把它放在那裡，這是淨額約 6600 萬美元的非現金激勵。

Yes. And then I know you gave some color on the Amazon Station activity. How many stations do you sort of plan this year? And I guess, maybe where is the uncertainty yet on getting some of those things out, but are you still seeing the permitting delays? Or is that sort of started to be worked through?

是的。然後我知道你對亞馬遜站的活動進行了一些渲染。你今年計劃有多少個車站？我想，也許將其中一些東西拿出來的不確定性在哪裡，但你是否仍然看到允許的延遲？或者是那種開始解決？

Rob, we -- what we've announced -- I have to be careful with my friends there. They don't want me talking too much about what we've previously announced. So we made an announcement that we would develop 19 stations for them. So we've -- maybe you can slice and dice this number all out. We build -- we built and opened 4 of those. So you can assume that the remainder of that, for the most part, will come on in production in 2023. So we've got a lot underway and in various stages right now some of those will be finished right toward the end of the year, October, November time line. But there will be -- half of them will come on in the first half of the year. So that's really important for us.

Rob，我們——我們已經宣布——我必須小心對待那裡的朋友。他們不想讓我過多談論我們之前宣布的內容。所以我們宣布要為他們開發19個站點。所以我們 - 也許你可以將這個數字全部切分。我們建造——我們建造並開放了其中的 4 個。所以你可以假設，剩下的大部分將在 2023 年投入生產。所以我們正在進行很多工作，目前處於不同階段，其中一些將在年底前完成、十月、十一月時間線。但是會有 - 其中一半將在今年上半年出現。所以這對我們來說真的很重要。

What we've seen, Rob, is it's different. We've built -- building stations is not new for us, right. In our history, we've built close to 750 station projects. We actually -- we -- 1 year, you remember, Rob, we built 87 truck stops in 1 year. And then I think the next year was a like number. So building stations is not new to us. What has been a little challenging is Greenfield locations, right? So you're building took what's called the truck stops from scratch in and around highly sought distribution centers. So the locating the coordination with Amazon, then the entitlements and the permitting, entitlement is really more, those of you who haven't built anything in a while.

Rob，我們所看到的是不同的。我們已經建造了——建造車站對我們來說並不新鮮，對吧。在我們的歷史中，我們建造了近 750 個車站項目。我們實際上 - 我們 - 1 年，你記得，Rob，我們在 1 年內建造了 87 個卡車停靠站。然後我認為明年是一個相似的數字。所以建造車站對我們來說並不陌生。 Greenfield 的位置有點挑戰，對吧？因此，您要在備受追捧的配送中心及其周圍從頭開始建造所謂的卡車停靠站。因此，找到與亞馬遜的協調，然後是權利和許可，權利真的更多，那些有一段時間沒有建造任何東西的人。

The entitlement process in the country is daunting, and that can be anywhere from 6 months to a year. So we have a lot of these projects we've been working on now for quite a while. And then the permitting (inaudible) 0:31:47, the construction part of it is not anything that's much different than what we've always seen, which is 5 to 6 -- 5 months. So a lot more to be done this year, and we hope we'll just continue on that next year as well.

該國的權利過程令人生畏，可能需要 6 個月到一年的時間。所以我們有很多這樣的項目，我們現在已經在做很長一段時間了。然後允許（聽不清）0:31:47，它的構建部分與我們一直看到的沒有什麼不同，即 5 到 6 -- 5 個月。所以今年還有很多工作要做，我們希望明年也能繼續這樣做。

Our next question is from Eric Stine with Craig Hallum.

我們的下一個問題來自 Eric Stine 和 Craig Hallum。

So just coming back to the 2023 EBITDA guide. So looking for modest growth there, and I know part of that is you've got RNG plants, I guess, pushed out a little bit. You're still conservative on the credit side and you've got higher OpEx, but you've got some areas where you're more optimistic as well. I guess, is that a fair way to characterize it, one. And then secondly, can you just talk about maybe the linearity of it throughout the year? I know that the natural gas spike in California was, I believe, even more pronounced in the first quarter. So, how do you expect to start the year and then maybe for -- how it plays out for the remainder of the year?

所以回到 2023 年 EBITDA 指南。所以在那裡尋找適度的增長，我知道其中一部分是你有 RNG 工廠，我猜，推出了一點。你在信貸方面仍然很保守，你有更高的運營支出，但你也有一些你更樂觀的領域。我想，這是描述它的一種公平方式嗎？其次，你能談談它全年的線性嗎？我知道加利福尼亞州的天然氣價格飆昇在第一季度更為明顯。那麼，您希望如何開始今年，然後可能 - 它如何在今年剩餘的時間裡發揮作用？

Rob, when you were -- when we're assigned -- I'll let Bob get on here in a second. But when you're assigned the EBITDA and what -- why that is where we're guiding to. Look, and it may kill me here. But if you went back to credit prices of last year, you have -- you'd add $44.5 million of EBITDA. So we're trying to be responsible by not trying to project, get over our skis on projecting what's going to happen in the LCFS. We remain bullish. We think the fact that California is now talking about increasing the obligation curve of 20% to 30%. Look, that's a huge increase. We believe that when that finally gets done, that will put pressure on LCFS prices. In fact, when you go back from the workshop that happened just a few days ago, the LCFS price is up.

Rob，當你——當我們被分配時——我會讓 Bob 馬上過來。但是當你被分配了 EBITDA 和什麼 - 為什麼這是我們的指導方針。看，它可能會殺了我。但如果你回到去年的信貸價格，你會增加 4450 萬美元的 EBITDA。因此，我們試圖通過不嘗試預測來承擔責任，在預測 LCFS 中將要發生的事情時越過滑雪板。我們仍然看漲。我們認為加州現在正在談論將義務曲線增加 20% 到 30% 這一事實。看，這是一個巨大的增長。我們相信，當最終完成時，這將給 LCFS 價格帶來壓力。事實上，當你從幾天前發生的研討會回來時，LCFS 價格上漲了。

So we actually thought that was supposed to happen and it was supposed to happen back in November last year. So it happened now. So we're mildly bullish on what's going to happen with LCFS. And we certainly are in the medium term. That'll probably be more 24% or 25%. But it's not the fact that the RNG projects are not on production because we always knew that those would come on and really contribute in '24 has most to do with the credit prices. Bob, now, you might fix me up here on that.

所以我們實際上認為這應該發生並且應該在去年 11 月發生。所以現在發生了。因此，我們對 LCFS 將要發生的事情持樂觀態度。我們當然處於中期。這可能會超過 24% 或 25%。但這並不是 RNG 項目沒有投入生產的事實，因為我們一直都知道這些項目會出現並在 24 年真正做出貢獻，這與信貸價格有很大關係。鮑勃，現在，你可以解決我的問題。

No, I agree there. Eric, you asked about the linearity versus --

不，我同意這一點。埃里克，你問的是線性與——

Yes, I mean it's Q1.

是的，我的意思是它是第一季度。

First, get a --

首先，得到一個——

Yes, I know. But I mean that would [cross talk]

是的，我知道。但我的意思是那會[相聲]

Yes, exactly. Look, here's -- well, last year didn't bode too well without a little bit of linearity. But I would say that we're talking about it. So I'm going to say that there's a little bit of similarity between the years where historically, Q1, we've -- just a little bit of a slower quarter. And then as we talk about completing stations, they're not all going to get done here in March, kind of thing. So that plays into increasing volumes throughout the year.

對，就是這樣。看，這是 - 好吧，如果沒有一點線性，去年的預兆就不太好。但我會說我們正在談論它。所以我要說的是，從歷史上看，第一季度，我們的年份之間有一點相似之處——只是一個較慢的季度。然後當我們談論完成車站時，他們不會在 3 月份全部在這裡完成，類似的事情。因此，這會影響全年的銷量增長。

And you are correct Eric, it is interesting. I'll put the little caveat out there. California did have a huge issue with natural gas prices in January. Like more, I noted that natural gas prices doubled in December. So they went from like $7 and end to $15 and that's about $1. And then they went from 15 and end to $50. So that's kind of mind boggling. And we're going to see some impact from that. There's no doubt about it. I mean it's like usual, I mean it may be some painful. The good news is we have a fair amount of the year to try to manage around that and recover from it. But that was -- that's something that -- that's kind of part of how we do things. I didn't get out there and necessarily change guidance on January at all.

埃里克，你是對的，這很有趣。我會把小警告放在那裡。加州在 1 月份確實遇到了天然氣價格的巨大問題。更重要的是，我注意到天然氣價格在 12 月份翻了一番。所以他們從 7 美元漲到 15 美元，大約是 1 美元。然後他們從 15 美元漲到 50 美元。所以這有點令人難以置信。我們將看到一些影響。毫無疑問。我的意思是這和往常一樣，我的意思是它可能會有些痛苦。好消息是我們今年有相當多的時間來嘗試解決這個問題並從中恢復過來。但那是——那是——那是我們做事方式的一部分。我根本沒有走出去，也沒有必要在 1 月份改變指導方針。

But it's something that's -- those are the types of things that we had some headwinds in '22. Frankly, we had it in the third quarter. And then we thought we -- again, that was part of the optimistic view of the fourth quarter was that we have that high gas price from the third quarter out of the way and just when we thought we were kind of out of the woods, California, our largest market doubles. So, all of that is temporary volatility. So I mean, our view is long on this solution and the fuel. And we've got projects being built out and so we're in this for the long haul.

但它是——這些是我們在 22 年遇到的一些不利因素。坦率地說，我們在第三季度就做到了。然後我們認為我們 - 再次，這是對第四季度的樂觀看法的一部分，即我們已經擺脫了第三季度的高油價，而就在我們認為我們有點走出困境的時候，加利福尼亞，我們最大的市場翻了一番。所以，所有這些都是暫時的波動。所以我的意思是，我們對這種解決方案和燃料持長期看法。而且我們已經建立了項目，因此我們將長期參與其中。

Got it. That's helpful. And maybe just turning to the RNG, just maybe an update. I know you've provided it before, but as you see that JV is playing out, ultimately, the number of projects you see and then maybe the average gallons per project.

知道了。這很有幫助。也許只是轉向 RNG，也許只是更新。我知道你之前已經提供過，但正如你所看到的，合資企業正在發揮作用，最終，你看到的項目數量，然後可能是每個項目的平均加侖數。

These projects tend to be the dairies tend to be oh, Eric, I'm sorry. Eric, these projects tend to be in the range of 1.5 million to 2 million gallons 2.5%. Now we have one underway in Idaho right now. It's really big projects, $5 million. But let's just say $2 million is a good number. So you could see that we've got many more projects come on, which we are very excited about the scope and the size of the market is still big.

這些項目往往是奶製品往往是哦，埃里克，對不起。埃里克，這些項目往往在 150 萬至 200 萬加侖 2.5% 的範圍內。現在我們正在愛達荷州開展一項工作。這是非常大的項目，500 萬美元。但我們只能說 200 萬美元是一個不錯的數字。所以你可以看到我們有更多的項目正在進行，我們對范圍和市場規模仍然很大感到非常興奮。

Now what you'll have, Eric, is you won't have as many 10,000 cow dairies or larger, but you'll begin to cluster these. And so there's dozens and dozens of projects that are still out there. And in fact, right now, we have 27, I think, in our pipeline. So not of the ones we've discussed, not of the 13 that are sort of I put under construction and underway. We've got another 27 that we've -- we're talking to and treating paper with. So I think we've always sort of said that you'd be in the 35 to 40 projects before this is -- before we realized what we laid out for you last year.

埃里克，現在你將擁有的是，你不會擁有 10,000 家或更大的奶牛場，但你會開始將它們聚集在一起。因此，仍有數十個項目在那裡。事實上，我認為現在我們有 27 個在籌備中。所以不是我們討論過的，不是我正在建設和進行的 13 個。我們還有另外 27 個——我們正在與之交談和處理紙張。所以我認為我們一直在說，在我們意識到去年為您制定的計劃之前，您將參與 35 到 40 個項目。

Our next question is from Matthew Blair with Tudor, Pickering, Holt.

我們的下一個問題來自馬修布萊爾和都鐸、皮克林、霍爾特。

Andrew and Bob. So I think if I heard correctly, you were saying that your current profitability would look more like $95 million at 2022 credit prices. And I think at one point, you were providing a 2023 guide of $136 million. So could you walk through the delta between that original 2023 guide, $136 million and then the $95 million? I mean, I guess would that be just an assumption of lower volumes coming through in 2023 than what you originally envisioned?

安德魯和鮑勃。所以我想如果我沒聽錯的話，你是說你目前的盈利能力在 2022 年的信貸價格下看起來更像是 9500 萬美元。而且我認為有一次，你提供了 2023 年 1.36 億美元的指導。那麼，您能否瀏覽一下最初的 2023 年指南、1.36 億美元和 9500 萬美元之間的差值？我的意思是，我猜這只是假設 2023 年的銷量低於您最初的預期嗎？

Matt, I would say there's, yes, a little bit of that. I mean we're in a little bit of a different world than we were at the beginning. Look back to January '22, credit prices were extremely high and we just -- the world was in a little different place. And so I think that -- I mean, for sure, the lion's share of it is just simply an assumption on credit prices, that's huge. The other gap there is what I'm going to say, nothing notable other than a little here and a little there, and kind of as your environment changes, you give plans change.

馬特，我會說，是的，有一點。我的意思是，我們所處的世界與一開始時的世界略有不同。回顧 22 年 1 月，信貸價格非常高，我們只是 - 世界處於一個有點不同的地方。所以我認為 - 我的意思是，當然，其中大部分只是對信貸價格的簡單假設，這是巨大的。另一個差距就是我要說的，除了這裡有一點和那裡有一點之外沒有什麼值得注意的，隨著環境的變化，你的計劃也會發生變化。

For us, as usual, I really feel that it's kind of timing related of when the volumes come on is the biggest piece. It really is. And so it's not if, it's when and just how -- we're always constantly trying to get engaged when will the trucks show up at the fueling station, going through the buying cycle and the adoption and all of that and getting it there. And as things move and look, moving out stations, these varies. When we open up stations because we're -- they're purpose-built stations for all of our customers these days. They were building them because there's a need for volume. So as soon as they open, the fuel starts flowing. So it's -- that volume kind of follows how you're opening stations for the most part. I mean, we get more volume at our existing stations as well. But that's it. I mean, it's just --

對我們來說，像往常一樣，我真的覺得與時間有關的時間是最重要的部分。確實如此。因此，這不是如果，而是何時以及如何 - 我們一直在不斷努力參與卡車何時會出現在加油站，經歷購買週期和採用以及所有這些並到達那裡。隨著事物的移動和外觀，移出車站，這些會有所不同。當我們開放車站時，因為我們 - 這些天它們是為我們所有客戶專門建造的車站。他們建造它們是因為需要數量。因此，它們一打開，燃料就開始流動。所以它是 - 這種音量在很大程度上遵循你打開電台的方式。我的意思是，我們現有的車站也有更多的流量。但僅此而已。我的意思是，這只是——

I think Matthew probably if you were to go back and look at and try to piece it together. And of course, I was just giving you kind of back a label that gets you close to 95 or 100. It's timing. It's timing on the projects, right? We probably realize today, these projects take a little bit longer to come on production than we thought a year ago.

我認為 Matthew 可能會回頭看看並嘗試將其拼湊起來。當然，我只是給你一個標籤，讓你接近 95 或 100。這是時機。是項目的時間安排，對嗎？今天我們可能意識到，這些項目投入生產所需的時間比我們一年前想像的要長一些。

Okay. And the ---

好的。還有——

The other thing, and I don't want -- let's not go down this too long, but there's sort of -- there is some good news in here, right? I mean when we were laying that out for a year ago, we didn't have the IRA. We didn't have an ITC and we didn't insure didn't have a producer --

另一件事，我不想——我們不要說得太久，但有點——這裡有一些好消息，對吧？我的意思是，當我們在一年前進行佈局時，我們沒有 IRA。我們沒有 ITC，我們也沒有確保沒有生產商——

Production tax credit.

生產稅收抵免。

Production tax credit. You lay that in and put any kind of number on it that has been banned about in '25, '26, those are really big numbers. So it also are going to work out -- it's all going to work out here in the wash. I mean, in those numbers, when you put play $4, $5 or $6 or whatever you want, I'm going to let you do it, not me. Those are big numbers out there that could be attributable based on the production tax credit.

生產稅收抵免。你把它放進去，然後在上面加上任何在 25 年、26 年被禁止的數字，這些數字真的很大。所以它也會解決 - 這一切都會在洗滌中解決。我的意思是，在這些數字中，當你投入 4 美元、5 美元或 6 美元或任何你想要的東西時，我會讓你去做，而不是我。這些都是很大的數字，可以歸因於生產稅收抵免。

Okay. And I just want to confirm that the $50 million to $60 million for 2023, that does not include any ITC add-backs, correct?

好的。我只想確認 2023 年的 5000 萬到 6000 萬美元，不包括任何 ITC 追加，對嗎？

Correct. Yes. And it wouldn't necessarily mean the ITC is more of an investment tax credit. But yes, there's no IRA number in the $50 million to $60 million.

正確的。是的。這並不一定意味著 ITC 更像是一種投資稅收抵免。但是，是的，在 5000 萬到 6000 萬美元之間沒有 IRA 號碼。

Our next question comes from Greg Wasikowski with Webber Research.

我們的下一個問題來自韋伯研究中心的 Greg Wasikowski。

I don't mean to beat a dead horse here, but just going back to the financial metrics and projections from the RNG Day a little over a year ago. Obviously, a lot has changed. I'm just wondering what at all can we still take away from the 2022 to 2026 projections, whether it's can we fly things to the right? Is the general ramp or the shape of the ramp still intact? Should we just be kind of haircutting everything by a certain percentage or should we just wipe it out altogether. Just curious, when you look at that, what can we still take away from those numbers?

我並不是想在這裡打敗一匹死馬，而是回到一年多前 RNG 日的財務指標和預測。顯然，發生了很多變化。我只是想知道我們還能從 2022 年到 2026 年的預測中拿走什麼，我們是否可以讓事情向右飛？一般坡道或坡道的形狀是否仍然完好無損？我們是應該按一定比例削減所有內容，還是應該完全消除它。只是好奇，當你看到它時，我們還能從這些數字中拿走什麼？

Well, let me hit some of the broad strokes is we still see the need almost exactly the same as we did. So the 2026 number of -- I don't have a firm 459 whatever the total was, we still see that. We still see the third party in the -- exactly the same place. And by the way, we're kind of on track on being able to lay that in as we thought. And then the RNG dairy in our account and our partners' accounts, we haven't come off of that. Now I think it may be that you might need to slide everything 6 months to the right. I think that's probably prudent to do.

好吧，讓我粗略地說一下，我們仍然看到與我們所做的幾乎完全相同的需求。所以 2026 年的數字——無論總數是多少，我都沒有確定的 459，我們仍然看到了。我們仍然在 - 完全相同的地方看到第三方。順便說一句，我們有點像我們想的那樣能夠把它放進去。然後是我們帳戶和合作夥伴帳戶中的 RNG 乳製品，我們還沒有擺脫它。現在我認為您可能需要將所有內容向右滑動 6 個月。我認為這樣做可能是謹慎的。

And of course, as we've all discussed here this afternoon, the credit prices that we used back then are different. So we all have to employ our best thinking on those credit prices. We happen to believe that by the time you get to '24 and '25, the credit prices will strengthen substantially. And then, of course, we like some of the benefits that we received from the IRA, certainly, the production tax credit is very meaningful out there as well.

當然，正如我們今天下午在這裡討論的那樣，我們當時使用的信貸價格是不同的。因此，我們都必須對這些信貸價格進行最好的思考。我們碰巧相信，到 24 和 25 年時，信貸價格將大幅走強。然後，當然，我們喜歡我們從 IRA 獲得的一些好處，當然，生產稅收抵免也非常有意義。

So we haven't really pivoted in terms of saying, you know what, let's not do this RNG or let's not pursue dairies or let's not pursue third party. It's all pretty much still intact. And if you want to critically look at what's changed, you could say, well, some of these projects, dairy projects are probably taking a little bit longer to build. But I mean, gosh, in the scheme of things, when you have 35 projects underway, it's -- I don't know how meaningful that is. And if there's an impact, it could be late '23, '24, early '24, but I think it's generally going to hold in pretty well.

所以我們並沒有真正轉向說，你知道嗎，我們不要做這個 RNG 或者我們不要追求奶製品或者我們不要追求第三方。一切都完好無損。如果你想批判性地看看發生了什麼變化，你可以說，嗯，其中一些項目，乳製品項目可能需要更長的時間來構建。但我的意思是，天哪，在事情的計劃中，當你有 35 個項目正在進行時，它是——我不知道這有多大意義。如果有影響，可能是 23 年底、24 年底、24 年初，但我認為它通常會保持得很好。

Okay. That's helpful.

好的。這很有幫助。

Yes, I'd say --

是的，我會說——

Go ahead, Bob.

來吧，鮑勃。

No, go ahead. Well, yes, look, I mean maybe I'm saying the same thing, but -- so it gets tempered a little bit. But then frankly, we have tailwinds from the IRA that come in there and really help that out because you can look at a model like that and simply change in credit price and the numbers would go down. I mean I can tell you the math on that. If you take the LCFS from (inaudible) 0:48:17, it's going to go down. Now we don't believe that for that 5-year period although ---

沒有，繼續。好吧，是的，看，我的意思是也許我在說同樣的話，但是 - 所以它有點緩和了。但坦率地說，我們有來自愛爾蘭共和軍的順風，確實有助於解決這個問題，因為你可以看看這樣的模型，只要改變信貸價格，數字就會下降。我的意思是我可以告訴你這方面的數學知識。如果您從（聽不清）0:48:17 獲取 LCFS，它將下降。現在我們不相信在這 5 年期間，儘管 ---

Meaning to our partners, by the way.

順便說一句，對我們的合作夥伴意味著。

Yes. So maybe there's a little temperament there. But then we also didn't plan in 25 for production tax credit to come in as well. So world was kind of back in. So I think that in general, the shape of the curves and the potential out there is still there.

是的。所以也許那裡有一點氣質。但後來我們也沒有計劃在 25 年也加入生產稅收抵免。所以世界有點回歸。所以我認為總的來說，曲線的形狀和潛力仍然存在。

Okay. That's helpful. I'm not going to ask you for exact numbers, but is it fair to say then that when we look out into '25 and '26, the delta between your revised estimates for those years is smaller than looking at 2023 kind of rate front of us right now? Is that fair to say?

好的。這很有幫助。我不會問你確切的數字，但是可以公平地說，當我們展望 25 年和 26 年時，你對那些年的修訂估計值之間的差值小於 2023 年的利率前沿我們現在？這樣說公平嗎？

Yes, that's fair to say.

是的，可以這麼說。

Okay. That's helpful. And then one more, if I could. Just I think you just mentioned in your prepared remarks, it's about competition for the Amazon sites. Could you maybe elaborate on that a little bit more things outside of just permitting what competitive forces were (inaudible) 0:49:36.

好的。這很有幫助。然後再來一個，如果可以的話。我想你剛剛在準備好的發言中提到，這是關於亞馬遜網站的競爭。除了允許競爭力量是什麼（聽不清）0:49:36，你能否詳細說明一下。

Greg, if what I -- competition and maybe you thought of competition to build natural gas and RNG fueling. That's not the kind of competition just pressure on real estate competition.

格雷格，如果我——競爭，也許你想到了建造天然氣和 RNG 燃料的競爭。那不是那種只壓房地產競爭的競爭。

What kind of scarcity (inaudible) 0:49:57 property.

什麼樣的稀缺性（聽不清） 0:49:57 財產。

And what kind of properties cities want in their city.

以及城市想要在他們的城市擁有什麼樣的房產。

Okay. Okay. So, it clarifies. Just not others kind of doing in the -- not other to do the same thing that you're doing in just different uses for the land in general.

好的。好的。所以，它澄清了。只是不是其他人在做 - 不是其他人做與您正在做的相同的事情，只是土地的一般用途不同。

Exactly. Exactly.

確切地。確切地。

Our next question comes from Pavel Molchanov with Raymond James.

我們的下一個問題來自 Pavel Molchanov 和 Raymond James。

I know you're not giving guidance formally beyond 2023. But you said that you expect California LCFS pricing to improve over the next 2 years. What gives you the confidence in that directionally?

我知道您不會在 2023 年之後正式提供指導。但您說過您預計加州 LCFS 定價在未來 2 年內會有所改善。是什麼給了你方向性的信心？

Yes. Pavel, what gives us the confidence on it is that the low carbon fuel standard is working and RNG is an important component of it. And I think that we feel fairly confident, certainly after the workshop of the 22nd that all of the comments were supportive of an increased obligation curves, increasing the obligation and compliance curves from 20% to 30%. And I think there's a chance that they could go to 35%. And then you know there's this new concept that there is -- now the staff has actually endorsed, which is kind of a ratchet that if you're in an oversupplied market that they could ratchet down the the compliance curve. So you can kind of see go from 30% to 32%. So I think all of that is -- you're going to need all the R&D you can get. So I think you're going to be back in a much more supportive environment for increased prices.

是的。 Pavel，讓我們對此充滿信心的是低碳燃料標準正在發揮作用，而 RNG 是其中的重要組成部分。我認為我們相當有信心，當然在第 22 次研討會之後，所有評論都支持增加義務曲線，將義務和合規曲線從 20% 增加到 30%。我認為他們有可能達到 35%。然後你知道有一個新概念 - 現在員工實際上已經認可，這是一種棘輪，如果你處於供過於求的市場，他們可以降低合規曲線。所以你可以看到從 30% 到 32%。所以我認為所有這些都是——你將需要你能得到的所有研發。所以我認為你會回到一個更加支持價格上漲的環境中。

Okay. Let me ask a similar question about RINs, which I think for the year as a whole, RINs were as large as the tax credit and California combined. The EPA seems to be kind of rethinking the entire RVO framework, including these electric RINs that are being discussed. What's your thinking directionally on where that goes?

好的。讓我問一個關於 RIN 的類似問題，我認為就全年而言，RIN 與稅收抵免和加利福尼亞州的總和一樣大。 EPA 似乎在重新考慮整個 RVO 框架，包括正在討論的這些電子 RIN。你對它的發展方向有何看法？

Yes. I -- Pavel, I actually think that we've learned a lot over these last few weeks since they came out with their new proposal on the RVO and for the renewable fuel standard and the (inaudible) 0:52:49. I think they've over -- I think they've overshot. And the EPA has. And when you look at the 4 or so largest organizations that EPA listens to, the Renewable Fuel Association, AFPM and the API and NG -- RNGC just to name a few. All of them, growth energy. All of them are unanimous in that the proposed (inaudible) 0:53:22 framework won't work.

是的。我 -- Pavel，我認為自從他們提出關於 RVO 和可再生燃料標準以及（聽不清）0:52:49 的新提案以來，我們在過去幾週學到了很多東西。我認為他們已經結束了——我認為他們已經過頭了。環保局有。當您查看 EPA 聽取意見的 4 個左右最大的組織時，可再生燃料協會、AFPM 和 API 以及 NG——RNGC 僅舉幾例。所有這些，增長能量。他們一致認為提議的（聽不清） 0:53:22 框架行不通。

And then specifically, as we look at it Pavel, the way they kind of engineered the equivalency of how they would have credits, what kind of level of credit you would get, depending where you put your fuel where, frankly, (inaudible) 0:53:45 fuel I don't think that's probably going to end up being the way it's going to be enacted. The idea is that they kind of jury-rig the math to create RINs out of thin air, frankly, to incent RNG to go to make electricity for light-duty electric vehicles versus putting RNG into a hard to decarbonize heavy-duty truck. I don't think that -- I don't think that, that's going to end up being the case. And I think it was almost just too much. It's going to fall apart under its own weight. It's too obvious.

然後具體來說，當我們看到它時，帕維爾，他們設計的方式與他們如何獲得信用的等效性，你將獲得什麼樣的信用水平，這取決於你把燃料放在哪裡，坦率地說，（聽不清）0 :53:45 燃料 我不認為這可能最終會成為它要製定的方式。坦率地說，他們的想法是，他們在某種程度上臨時操縱數學來憑空創建 RIN，以激勵 RNG 為輕型電動汽車發電，而不是將 RNG 放入難以脫碳的重型卡車中。我不這麼認為——我不這麼認為，最終會是這樣。我認為這幾乎太多了。它會在自身重量下分崩離析。這太明顯了。

And the move in the origination from the producer at the -- that -- the other day, Pavel, I was with the Chairman of the Agriculture Committee, and a member of Congress, so that was on the dairy farm and happens to have RNG digester out is dairy farm in the Central Valley, California. We're standing on the bladder on top of the -- on top of it and -- of the lagoon there and filled up with methane that this guy is capturing, We, by the way, get all that gas and it goes into heavy-duty trucks. And I said to the Chairman of the Agriculture Committee, I said, well, now there's one for you. And I pointed to the congressman whose dairy farm was, and I said, can you imagine that the EPA's proposed that the generator is no longer Congressman (inaudible) 0:55:24 and it's no longer -- they're not the generator here at the dairy farm. They're going to pass that on to the -- to Ford or to someone making electric vehicles in Detroit or Elon Musk.

生產者的舉動 - 那 - 前幾天，Pavel，我和農業委員會主席以及國會議員在一起，所以那是在奶牛場並且恰好有 RNG沼氣池出來的是加利福尼亞州中央山谷的奶牛場。我們站在那個——在它上面——那個潟湖上面的氣囊上，充滿了這個人正在捕獲的甲烷，順便說一下，我們得到了所有的氣體，然後它變成了重- 值班卡車。我對農業委員會主席說，好吧，現在給你一個。我指著奶牛場的國會議員，我說，你能想像 EPA 提議發電機不再是國會議員嗎（聽不清） 0:55:24 而且它不再 - 他們不是這裡的發電機在奶牛場。他們將把它傳遞給 - 福特或底特律或埃隆馬斯克製造電動汽車的人。

And he said, well, you got to be kidding me. How is that -- how could that possibly be? So that's just another example of what was going on in this deal. And I just don't think that's going to all is going to end up being enacted that way at all.

他說，好吧，你一定是在開玩笑。那是怎麼回事——那怎麼可能？所以這只是這筆交易中發生的事情的另一個例子。而且我只是認為這根本不會以這種方式結束。

Appreciate the color on that.

欣賞它的顏色。

And I think what's going to happen, Pavel is you should -- you'll see perhaps they're under an obligation to enact the RVO by June. Now whether or not they do that, I don't know. I'm not sure they're going to get this all cleaned up and figured out the (inaudible) 0:56:12 to be able to make that date. And so it wouldn't surprise me that the (inaudible) 0:56:21 maybe gets delayed some and restyled some and that they go with some other kind of RVO in June. So we'll have to see.

我認為將要發生的事情，Pavel 是你應該做的——你可能會看到他們有義務在 6 月之前頒布 RVO。現在他們是否這樣做，我不知道。我不確定他們是否會把這一切都清理乾淨併計算出（聽不清）0:56:12 以便能夠確定那個日期。因此，（聽不清）0:56:21 可能會延遲一些並重新設計一些，並且它們在 6 月與其他類型的 RVO 一起使用，這不會讓我感到驚訝。所以我們必須拭目以待。

Just a quick question at the end. Smaller programs, but do you get anything from Oregon or Washington State LCFS?

最後只是一個快速的問題。較小的程序，但是您從俄勒岡州或華盛頓州 LCFS 得到什麼嗎？

We do, but a little bit. We have several customers -- I'm looking at one of my guys, Oregon.

我們有，但有一點。我們有幾個客戶——我在看我的一個人，俄勒岡州。

Yes, Oregan for sure (inaudible) 0:56:55 not quite yet.

是的，俄勒岡肯定（聽不清） 0:56:55 還沒有。

(inaudible) 0:56:56 not quite yet but we will there. But Oregon program credit prices are worth more, they're nice, but we don't do a lot of people up there yet, be. But I think we have 4 or 5 customers right now.

（聽不清）0:56:56 還沒有，但我們會的。但俄勒岡計劃的信貸價格更有價值，它們很好，但我們還沒有做很多人，是。但我認為我們現在有 4 或 5 個客戶。

Our next question is from Craig Shere with Tuohy Brothers.

我們的下一個問題來自 Craig Shere 和 Tuohy Brothers。

So I mean, obviously, neither card or the EPA wants these programs to implode. So I guess what I want to ask is, one, do you see a silver-lining that the regulators feel more pressured with these low prices? And two, do you see any catalyst for other state programs. And there were some draconian possible recommendations with options being evaluated by the card, kind of eliminating projects past a certain line in the sand from west to east or other things. Do you see them starting to shy away from some of those Draconian changes and just focus on total supply/demand and in terms of the carbon reduction track versus tweaking the market in other ways.

所以我的意思是，很明顯，無論是卡還是 EPA 都不希望這些程序崩潰。所以我想我想問的是，第一，你是否看到監管機構對這些低價格感到壓力更大的一線希望？第二，您是否看到其他州計劃的任何催化劑。並且有一些嚴厲的可能建議，選項卡正在評估選項，有點消除從西到東或其他東西超過沙子中某條線的項目。你是否看到他們開始迴避一些嚴苛的變化，只關注總供需和碳減排軌道，而不是以其他方式調整市場。

Yes. Well, Craig, look, I think -- I hope what I've been trying to say on this call is that I'm actually somewhat optimistic of the way both these programs are going to end up. And it hasn't helped as the markets watch this kind of making a sausage and regulatory proclamations and staff workshops and all that, that kind of can be a little bit of a nerve. And it, frankly, has done that to the credit prices in the latter part of the year. But I'm kind of -- I think I'm picking up where you are. I don't believe that either California or the EPA wants to dismal these programs, okay?

是的。好吧，克雷格，聽著，我想——我希望我在這次電話會議上一直想表達的是，我實際上對這兩個項目的最終結果持樂觀態度。它並沒有幫助市場看到這種製作香腸和監管公告以及員工研討會等等，這可能有點緊張。坦率地說，它已經對今年下半年的信貸價格造成了影響。但我有點——我想我正在了解你的位置。我不相信加州或 EPA 想要破壞這些計劃，好嗎？

I think, unfortunately, there was a tendency to want to micromanage and steer and pick winners and losers and it's maybe some things that we see governments do from time to time, and certainly staff and governments do from time to time. And -- not always well guided and certainly often not market. I think it's beginning to but having said that, if I look at California, but you know what overpower some of these -- the micro managing of West lines in the sand and the West and pathways and book and claim and some of these different things and length of service and all that -- some of that stuff that had been kind of proposed is that when they know the program works, they know that half the dairies, the state of California, for instance, have voluntarily gone into capturing methane.

我認為，不幸的是，有一種趨勢是想要微觀管理、引導和挑選贏家和輸家，這可能是我們看到政府不時做的一些事情，當然工作人員和政府也會不時做。並且 - 並不總是得到很好的指導，當然也常常不是市場。我想這已經開始了，但話雖如此，如果我看看加利福尼亞，但你知道是什麼壓倒了其中的一些——對沙地和西部的西線的微觀管理、道路、預訂和索賠以及其中一些不同的東西和服務年限以及所有這些——一些已經被提議的東西是當他們知道這個項目有效時，他們知道一半的奶牛場，例如加利福尼亞州，已經自願開始收集甲烷。

They know they need RNG in order to lower the carbon in the state. It works. Other states don't works. The governor of the state governor knows it, he knows it works. So the last thing we want to do is kill the bull and cow, if you will. So I think what you'll see is what kind of overpowers all of those tendencies do want to micromanage the program is the fact that they're going to increase the obligation curve from 20% to 30%. That's big. And if they go to 35%, which many have suggested that there's no better time to do it, you're going to need all the RNG and a lot of these little programs, little things that they were kind of wanting to test, I think, will go away because you're going to need it all.

他們知道他們需要 RNG 以降低該州的碳排放。有用。其他州不行。州長的州長知道這一點，他知道這行得通。所以我們最不想做的就是殺死公牛和奶牛，如果你願意的話。所以我認為你會看到的是，所有這些趨勢確實想要對項目進行微觀管理，他們將把義務曲線從 20% 增加到 30%。那很大。如果他們達到 35%，許多人認為沒有更好的時間去做，你將需要所有的 RNG 和很多這些小程序，他們有點想測試的小東西，我想，會消失，因為你會需要它的一切。

So I feel actually kind of -- I'm an optimist, but I feel actually that, that is headed in a better direction. And then as we relate to the EPA, I feel similar in a similar way. For the federal government to decide that they want to decide where this fuel should go and jury rig, the math on generating RINs to force it to go -- to make electricity for their electric vehicle program. I just don't think that is the way it's going to go. And I know that there's -- be kind of interesting we should tune in tomorrow, there's confirmation hearing by the fellow in charge of this program.

所以我覺得實際上有點 - 我是一個樂觀主義者，但實際上我覺得那是朝著更好的方向前進。然後當我們與 EPA 相關時，我也有類似的感覺。為了讓聯邦政府決定他們想要決定這種燃料應該去哪裡，並陪審團操縱生成 RIN 以迫使它去的數學——為他們的電動汽車計劃發電。我只是不認為這是它要走的路。而且我知道 - 有點有趣，我們明天應該收聽，負責該計劃的人員將舉行確認聽證會。

At the EPA, the charge of the Office of Air radiation, he's trying to get confirmed tomorrow. And I'm sure these -- the questions that we've talked about just now about what they were trying to do with the program, probably brought up tomorrow. And so I kind of feel like I don't have anything guest (inaudible) 1:02:23, but I think the way that it was being done was probably not the right way to do it. Not even sure the EPA has authority to do it, but we'll see. But I think in particular, some of the things they were doing is probably not the right way to go about it. And I think I'm not the only one with that just about everybody. You should read those comments. I mean, I think there was a general agreement in that.

在美國環保署，負責空氣輻射的辦公室，他正試圖在明天得到證實。我確信這些——我們剛才談到的關於他們試圖用這個項目做什麼的問題，可能會在明天提出。所以我覺得我沒有任何客人（聽不清）1:02:23，但我認為這樣做的方式可能不是正確的方式。甚至不確定 EPA 是否有權這樣做，但我們拭目以待。但我特別認為，他們正在做的一些事情可能不是正確的做法。而且我認為我不是唯一一個幾乎每個人都這樣做的人。你應該閱讀那些評論。我的意思是，我認為在這方面達成了普遍共識。

That's helpful. And you're talking about finishing up the 19 stations for Amazon. I guess, do you require similar massive fueling fleet fueling agreements? Or -- so what's next after that? Do you have to have other Amazon-type agreements in order to roll out the next 10 or 20 new stations? Or do you just see increasing widespread adoption with the new Cummins 15-liter engine. And so you're just kind of going to have more open access and just keep going.

這很有幫助。你說的是為亞馬遜完成 19 個電台。我想，您是否需要類似的大規模加油車隊加油協議？或者——那之後是什麼？為了推出接下來的 10 或 20 個新站點，您是否必須有其他類似亞馬遜的協議？或者您只是看到新型康明斯 15 升發動機的廣泛採用。因此，您將獲得更開放的訪問權限並繼續前進。

Why don't you just keep going. And look, '19, I hope there's more on that with Amazon, right? There can be many more just with Amazon alone. But like we've launched that, look, we're not just a one-trick pony in terms of just Amazon. I mean, we work with all the largest trucking fleets. And we have an eye -- we are really focused on these 40 sort of household name largest fleets that are working right now with Cummins as they introduce the test vehicles for these next 4, 5, 6 months, and then we hope as they order the order book sometime in 2023 on the 15 liter. We're all over those fleets. To work with them to build and develop stations for them in the future as they we hope, begin to order vehicles.

你為什麼不繼續前進。看看，'19，我希望亞馬遜有更多的東西，對吧？僅亞馬遜就可以有更多。但是就像我們已經推出的那樣，看，就亞馬遜而言，我們不僅僅是一匹只會一招的小馬。我的意思是，我們與所有最大的卡車運輸車隊合作。我們有一個眼睛——我們真正關注的是這 40 家最大的家喻戶曉的車隊，他們現在正在與康明斯合作，因為他們在接下來的 4、5、6 個月內推出測試車輛，然後我們希望他們訂購2023 年某個時候的 15 升訂單簿。我們都在那些艦隊上。與他們合作，在我們希望的未來為他們建造和開發車站，開始訂購車輛。

So there will be -- we have a very large network that can take a lot of fuel now. And many of these fleets will use our nationwide network. And then we would be thrilled to work with some of these very large fleets to do what we're doing with Amazon. And I'm sure that will be the case. For instance, Craig, I don't know how it will pan out. So I'm just giving us just -- I'm just speculating just kind of for fun. I mean, look, we know Wal-Mart's testing the new Cummins 15. We know Werner, I would love to be the fuel partner using RNG for those kinds of fleets. And there's a bunch of them.

所以會有 - 我們有一個非常大的網絡，現在可以消耗大量燃料。其中許多車隊將使用我們的全國網絡。然後我們會很高興與這些非常大的車隊中的一些合作來做我們正在與亞馬遜一起做的事情。我相信情況會如此。例如，克雷格，我不知道結果如何。所以我只是給我們 - 我只是猜測只是為了好玩。我的意思是，看，我們知道沃爾瑪正在測試新的康明斯 15。我們知道 Werner，我很樂意成為為這類車隊使用 RNG 的燃料合作夥伴。還有很多。

And last one for me. To the degree, there's wider spread adoption and these fleets want to drive lower carbon fuel in other geographies nationwide not just California or Oregon or what have you. Do you think that there's increasing multifold pressure on 2 or 3 or 4 more states to come up with these types of CF programs in the next 2, 3 years?

最後一個給我。在某種程度上，採用的範圍更廣，這些車隊希望在全國其他地區使用低碳燃料，而不僅僅是加利福尼亞州或俄勒岡州或其他地區。您是否認為在未來 2、3 年內，有 2 或 3 或 4 個州提出這些類型的 CF 計劃的壓力越來越大？

Yes, that was part of your question. I wrote them down here. I wrote down New York, Illinois and to Mexico. So there will be other states. I think New York is pretty close. And Illinois is, I think, introduced it we've got some work to do in North Carolina. You'll have other states. There will be some that won't go, but you'll have other states to do it. And I think New Jersey once New York goes, you'll probably get New Jersey and the others in the area. So yes, they should. And Craig, if California does something to louse up their program, they will.

是的，那是你問題的一部分。我把它們寫在這裡。我寫下了紐約、伊利諾伊州和墨西哥。所以還會有其他狀態。我認為紐約非常接近。我認為，伊利諾伊州介紹了我們在北卡羅來納州有一些工作要做。你會有其他狀態。會有一些不會去，但你會有其他州去做。而且我認為一旦紐約離開新澤西，你可能會得到新澤西和該地區的其他地方。所以是的，他們應該。克雷格，如果加利福尼亞州做些什麼來破壞他們的計劃，他們會的。

Our next question is from Paul Cheng with Scotiabank.

我們的下一個問題來自豐業銀行的 Paul Cheng。

It's pretty late, so real quick. There's some discussion. I think California may want to change the way, no longer give the LCFS credit to LNG and net it prove the gas is physically in the state. I want to see if you guys have any read or have you talked to the government official there to see where that stands? And it does get paused, how that impact your operation? I mean, what percent of your projects that currently under construction realistically that you will have the pipeline connection all the way to California. And then also how much is your LNG sales that currently from the third party, you would be able to do that.

已經很晚了，真快。有一些討論。我認為加利福尼亞可能想改變方式，不再將 LCFS 歸功於液化天然氣，並通過網絡證明天然氣實際存在於該州。我想看看你們有沒有讀過或者你有沒有和那裡的政府官員談過，看看它的立場？它確實會暫停，這對您的操作有何影響？我的意思是，您目前正在建設的項目中有多少百分比實際上將管道連接到加利福尼亞。然後還有你目前從第三方獲得的液化天然氣銷售額是多少，你可以做到這一點。

Yes. Paul, yes, I mean, I think that's -- I mean, it's kind of around the booker claim -- booking claim and they're going to require us to physically move gas in to do that. And I mean, first, we think that's yet to be determined. So we're not really moving around to try to accommodate that. Now in some sense, I think there'd be some cost -- there'd be some cost added but, one of the beauties is we've got pipelines and already we have certified pathways. So we -- actually, we do have to be able to get gas from the farm to the dispenser in San Diego. I mean it has to be able to go there. What we talk about -- I mean, but it's a little tricky, right? Because once it goes -- once methane goes into the pipeline, it's methane. It's kind of indistinguishable. It's like putting a dollar in the ATM. I mean you're going to take it out. It's not the same dollar, but it's $1. So that's -- but look, however, we would have to track molecules. I think you'd add a little cost, but it would be done. I don't think --

是的。保羅，是的，我的意思是，我認為那是——我的意思是，這有點像預訂者的索賠——預訂索賠，他們將要求我們實際移動汽油來做到這一點。我的意思是，首先，我們認為這尚未確定。所以我們並沒有真正四處走動以適應這一點。現在從某種意義上說，我認為會有一些成本——會增加一些成本，但是，其中一個好處是我們有管道，而且我們已經有經過認證的途徑。所以我們 - 實際上，我們確實必須能夠將天然氣從農場送到聖地亞哥的加油站。我的意思是它必須能夠去那裡。我們談論的是——我的意思是，但這有點棘手，對吧？因為一旦它進入——一旦甲烷進入管道，它就是甲烷。這有點難以區分。這就像在自動取款機裡放一美元。我的意思是你要把它拿出來。這不是一美元，而是 1 美元。那就是——但是看，我們將不得不追踪分子。我想你會增加一點成本，但它會完成。我不認為——

From the way I understand it, Bob, I mean, just to -- I mean, that there's discussion that they wouldn't allow you to use the current booking claim that you have to pay for the -- essentially the transportation, right? And that's not a --

從我的理解來看，鮑勃，我的意思是，只是為了 - 我的意思是，有討論說他們不允許你使用你必須支付的當前預訂聲明 - 基本上是交通，對吧？那不是——

Yes, you pay for it.

是的，你付錢。

That's not a deal killer, Paul. I mean it's not fair and it's not the way it should work. And frankly, this is the kind of crazy stuff that's going on. But again, I'm going to kind of assign it to facial's bureaucrats, right? I mean -- by the way, that's not the case if you use it for hydrogen, even while they would want to do it for us. I mean that's the kind of thing that is just -- I just think that when cooler heads look at something, I don't see that. And -- but if it were to happen, as they've discussed in some of these workshops, there would be an extra cost to it. But it's --

那不是交易殺手，保羅。我的意思是這不公平，也不是它應該的工作方式。坦率地說，這就是正在發生的瘋狂事情。但同樣，我會把它分配給面部官僚，對吧？我的意思是——順便說一下，如果你用它來製造氫氣，情況就不是這樣了，即使他們想為我們這樣做。我的意思是，這就是那種事情——我只是認為，當頭腦冷靜的人看某樣東西時，我看不到。而且——但如果發生這種情況，正如他們在其中一些研討會中所討論的那樣，將會產生額外的成本。但它是——

We can accommodate.

我們可以容納。

Yes.

是的。

Because I mean we're certainly the way our pathways --

因為我的意思是我們肯定是我們的道路——

Yes, we have to prove that now.

是的，我們現在必須證明這一點。

The connectivity, all of it, it's -- all that work, and that's a lot of work and it's time consuming.

連接性，所有這些，它是 - 所有這些都有效，而且這需要大量工作並且非常耗時。

But don't -- that's not in shown yet, Paul.

但是不要——那還沒有顯示出來，保羅。

Sure. Just trying to understand that what is the kind of impact (inaudible) 1:10:01 what estimate? And what's the incremental cost for you guys?

當然。只是想了解什麼樣的影響（聽不清） 1:10:01 什麼估計？你們的增量成本是多少？

I don't have it. I don't know.

我沒有。我不知道。

No, but I mean if you're getting into kind of transportation costs, your kind of dollars on the MMBtu kind of things.

不，但我的意思是，如果你要支付某種運輸成本，比如 MMBtu 之類的東西。

Our guys know it. I'll see if we can get it for you, Paul. I don't know it.

我們的人都知道。我看看能不能給你弄到，保羅。我不知道。

Yes, that would be great. We're being asked by some clients.

是啊，那樣最好了。一些客戶問我們。

I'm busy finding it. So, I'm not worried about -- I'm not worried about paying it. So, don't put me down on the pipe call. Yes. Okay.

我正忙著找呢。所以，我不擔心——我不擔心支付。所以，不要讓我失望。是的。好的。

My final question is that just a simple accounting question. On the -- we're talking about the credit reduction, the capital reduction, say, 30% or so accounting wise, that Bob, how does it work that I -- we imagine, you know, your cash flow statement, your CapEx number is still remain the same. You're just receiving that tax credit or check from the government and showing up way?

我的最後一個問題是，這只是一個簡單的會計問題。關於——我們談論的是信貸減少，資本減少，比如 30% 左右的會計明智，鮑勃，它是如何運作的——我們想像，你知道，你的現金流量表，你的資本支出數量仍然保持不變。您只是收到政府的稅收抵免或支票並出現？

Yes. Well, it will reduce the basis in our -- it will reduce the basis in our asset. So it will lower -- it will basically lower the value of what we have capitalized. So if you're going to $100 million and you get your $30 million, then you're going to kind of end up net with a $70 million asset there.

是的。好吧，它將減少我們的基礎——它將減少我們資產的基礎。所以它會降低 - 它基本上會降低我們資本化的價值。因此，如果你打算投資 1 億美元，而你得到了 3000 萬美元，那麼你最終將獲得 7000 萬美元的淨資產。

No. But I guess my question is that from an accounting standpoint, when we're looking at your 10-K on your cash flow statement, let's say, if you suppose to have $200 million on the CapEx in 2026, and let's assume that in 2025, you spent $100 million, so you end up at $30 million. So yes, the cash flow statement is still showing up in your capital spending line at 200 or so 170.

不，但我想我的問題是，從會計的角度來看，當我們查看您的現金流量表上的 10-K 時，假設您假設 2026 年的資本支出為 2 億美元，我們假設2025 年，你花費了 1 億美元，所以你最終得到了 3000 萬美元。所以是的，現金流量表仍然顯示在您的資本支出線中，大約為 200 170。

It's going to show gross.

它會表現得很噁心。

Okay. And then just $30 million that way it's going to show up in the cash flow statement?

好的。然後只有 3000 萬美元會出現在現金流量表中？

It's going to show up in the investing section.

它會出現在投資部分。

You're proud of yourself, aren't your Bob, with accounting.

你為自己感到驕傲，不是你的鮑勃，會計。

Yes. I'm doing what I think is conservative on what the FASB would want me to say.

是的。我正在做我認為對 FASB 希望我說的話保守的事情。

Our next question is from Jason Gabelman with Cowen.

我們的下一個問題來自 Jason Gabelman 和 Cowen。

Two, if I may. The first, on the clean fuel production credit, which I think starts 2025. It seems like the benefit to your RNG production could be pretty high if it's not -- if the credit isn't capped, could be as high as $6 a gallon. Is that your interpretation? And do you expect that credit value to be capped? And then my second question is just on the near-term numbers. It looked like 4Q, the fuel margin, excluding all the credits was just $0.04 per gallon, which was down quarter-over-quarter, I think, by $0.06. Was that just due to the higher natural gas prices? And do you expect that to rebound back to, I guess, the $0.10 where it was in 3Q? And that's, once again, just the fuel dollar per margin, excluding any of the credits.

兩個，如果可以的話。首先，關於清潔燃料生產信貸，我認為它從 2025 年開始。如果不是這樣的話，你的 RNG 生產的收益似乎可能相當高——如果信貸沒有上限，可能高達每加侖 6 美元.那是你的解釋嗎？您是否希望信用價值受到限制？然後我的第二個問題只是關於近期數字。看起來第 4 季度，不包括所有信用額度的燃料利潤率僅為每加侖 0.04 美元，我認為環比下降 0.06 美元。這僅僅是因為天然氣價格上漲嗎？我猜你認為它會反彈到第三季度的 0.10 美元嗎？再一次，這只是每保證金的燃料美元，不包括任何積分。

Okay. Andrew, do you -- I don't know if you want to talk about the PTC.

好的。安德魯，你——我不知道你是否想談談 PTC。

Jason, it's a good question. That as you point out, that -- the production tax credit has not been promulgated. It hasn't been adopted by the treasury department by the Treasury Secretary. And I've been told our folks here, let's be careful. We don't know how that's going to come out. And we don't know -- it appears on its face as the law has suggested that it would -- it could be a rather big credit based on the carbon intensity. And I've seen estimates between $5 to $6. But I also know that's a big number. And Jason is the first time we really heard anybody ask us maybe because you and I talked about it before something, but whether that it could be capped. But stranger things have happened.

傑森，這是個好問題。正如您所指出的那樣，生產稅收抵免尚未頒布。財政部長尚未通過財政部。我被告知我們這裡的人，我們要小心。我們不知道結果會如何。我們不知道——從表面上看，正如法律所暗示的那樣——這可能是一個基於碳強度的相當大的信用額度。我看到估計在 5 到 6 美元之間。但我也知道這是一個很大的數字。 Jason 是我們第一次真正聽到有人問我們，也許是因為你和我之前談過它，但它是否可以被限制。但是奇怪的事情發生了。

So I don't know how to handicap that yet. I know that this incentive was designed to get really low carbon fuels produced. And so you want to be careful how much you cap it because then it works against what it was designed to do. But could it be? Do I think it will? I don't know that. I'm not sure it would be, but it could be. Have you heard something, Jason?

所以我還不知道如何阻止它。我知道這項激勵措施旨在生產真正低碳的燃料。所以你要小心你的上限是多少，因為它會違背它的設計目的。但可能嗎？我認為會嗎？我不知道。我不確定它會是，但它可能是。你聽到什麼了嗎，傑森？

No, no. That's -- I was saying if you did. I have not heard anything one way or the other.

不，不。那是——我是說如果你這樣做了。我沒有聽到任何一種方式。

Well, but I also know politicians and someone said, that's pretty big. But there are a lot of big numbers associated with all this stuff. So I'm not so sure that it would be. And I don't know how fair that would be just to cap it because it's so low carbon. So we'll see how that goes. Yes.

好吧，但我也認識政客，有人說，這很大。但是有很多與所有這些東西相關的大數字。所以我不太確定它會是。而且我不知道僅僅限制它有多公平，因為它是如此低碳。所以我們將看看情況如何。是的。

Jason, on your second question, by the numbers that you're giving to me, I can tell that -- and I'm not saying right or wrong at all, but I think you just -- you're taking like the fuel sales value that we report that has the Amazon noncash incentive netted down in there. And then you're kind of figuring out the product cost of sales and coming out to your $0.04. I will say that there's a couple -- probably a couple of things. I mean, one, the number can be influenced by how -- what the value of the Amazon incentive number is, right? Because that nets that -- it nets down the revenue and then your cost is kind of the same.

傑森，關於你的第二個問題，根據你給我的數字，我可以告訴你——我根本沒有說對或錯，但我認為你只是——你正在服用燃料我們報告的銷售價值已經扣除了亞馬遜的非現金激勵。然後你就可以計算出產品的銷售成本並得出你的 0.04 美元。我會說有幾件事——可能有幾件事。我的意思是，第一，這個數字會受到如何影響——亞馬遜激勵數字的價值是多少，對吧？因為那是淨收入——它減少了收入，然後你的成本就差不多了。

And so your margin gets a little skinnier as a result of the value of that. And whether you want to have that in there or not is up to you. But I can say that the value of that charge was the largest it's been in any quarter, and it was larger than Q3. So it was like $7 million in Q3 and $8.8 million. So that's netted in your revenue number. But then I will say, yes, Q4 was impacted certainly by the doubling of natural gas costs in California because it's such a big market. And -- we're going to see a little pressure on that in the first quarter. I would like to have said that dissipated we've got kind of righted itself. But I already know in January that costs went from $15 and then to $50. And I don't know if any of you have heard on the news about -- I mean it's all the way down into residents. And I mean it's a complete debacle in my opinion, my own humble opinion there. It's a bit of a debate on how we're managing the natural gas here in the state.

因此，由於它的價值，你的利潤會變得更薄。你是否想把它放在那裡取決於你。但我可以說，這筆費用的價值是任何一個季度以來最大的，而且比第三季度還大。所以第三季度大約是 700 萬美元和 880 萬美元。因此，這已計入您的收入數字。但我會說，是的，第四季度肯定受到加利福尼亞天然氣成本翻倍的影響，因為它是一個如此大的市場。而且 - 我們將在第一季度看到一些壓力。我想說的是，消散後我們已經恢復了正常。但我在 1 月份就已經知道成本從 15 美元漲到了 50 美元。而且我不知道你們中是否有人聽說過關於 - 我的意思是它一直深入到居民中。我的意思是，在我看來，這是一場徹底的崩潰，我個人的拙見。這是關於我們如何管理該州天然氣的爭論。

But now having said all that, that's in January, we'll work our way out of that. In January, we did, by the way, have to. We were forced to our own sales, no one externally, but raise our prices at the pump totally to accommodate that. We don't always do that because we're mindful of our customers wanting that to enjoy the spread in the pricing. And so we don't always jump out there and do that right away, we did. So anyway, I think your $0.04 is influenced -- see how it's influenced by the noncash incentive charge. And then yes, you do have a little bit of pressure on the COGS.

但現在說了這麼多，那是在一月份，我們將努力解決這個問題。順便說一下，在一月份，我們確實必須這樣做。我們被迫自己銷售，沒有人在外面銷售，而是提高我們的價格以完全適應這種情況。我們並不總是這樣做，因為我們注意到我們的客戶希望享受定價差價。因此，我們並不總是跳出來並立即做到這一點，我們做到了。所以無論如何，我認為你的 0.04 美元受到了影響——看看它是如何受到非現金獎勵費用的影響的。然後是的，你確實對 COGS 有一點壓力。

We have reached the end of the question-and-answer session. I would now like to turn the call back over to Andrew Littlefair for closing comments.

我們已經結束了問答環節。我現在想將電話轉回給 Andrew Littlefair 以徵求意見。

Operator, thank you. Thank you, everyone, for joining us today, and we look forward to updating you on our progress next quarter.

接線員，謝謝。感謝大家今天加入我們，我們期待著在下個季度向您介紹我們的進展情況。

This concludes today's conference. You may disconnect your lines at this time, and we thank you for your participation.

今天的會議到此結束。您此時可以斷開線路，我們感謝您的參與。