Clean Energy Fuels Corp (CLNE) 2022 Q3 法說會逐字稿

內容摘要

該公司致力於減少溫室氣體排放,並設定了到 2030 年實現淨零排放的目標。他們正在投資 RNG,它由有機物質製成,否則會向大氣中釋放甲烷(一種溫室氣體)。 RNG 是一種燃燒更清潔的化石燃料替代品。該公司投資了合資企業,用於未來的低碳 RNG 供應。該公司計劃增加其位於加利福尼亞州的 Boron 工廠的液化天然氣 (LNG) 產量。該公司還投資於可再生天然氣 (RNG) 的新來源,主要是在奶牛場,目標是在 2023 年初生產可再生天然氣。

Clean Energy Fuels Corp. 是可再生天然氣 (RNG) 的領先供應商。他們使用非 GAAP 收益來排除管理層認為不能代表公司核心業務運營結果的某些費用。除了根據 GAAP 編制的結果外,還應考慮非 GAAP 財務措施,不應將其視為替代或優於 GAAP 結果。第三季度,筆者參加了在長灘港舉行的慶祝新集裝箱船首次加註液化天然氣 (LNG) 的儀式。這是美國西海岸第一艘使用這種清潔燃料的船舶。 300,000 加侖液化天然氣從作者位於加利福尼亞州博倫的液化廠進入這艘 774 英尺的船。

作者所在的公司 Clean Energy 將擴充其船隊,增加 2 艘以液化天然氣為動力的集裝箱船,這些船將往返於長灘和夏威夷之間。第二艘預計將於明年 5 月下水,第三艘將於 2023 年 10 月下水。總計,這 3 艘船預計將在未來 5 年內從作者的 Boron 工廠消耗 1.05 億加侖 LNG。

作者指出,成為第一個並不總是那麼容易,並祝賀清潔能源團隊多年來與 Pasha 和 World Fuel Services 達成交易,其中包括在德克薩斯州布朗斯維爾的干船塢設施提供加油支持,新造的船舶投入使用。

作者表示,隨著全球能源市場的動盪,對散裝液化天然氣的需求持續增長,他們在加利福尼亞州和德克薩斯州的 2 家液化天然氣工廠一直非常繁忙。通過 Pasha 的液化天然氣燃料交易,他們正在擴大其 Boron 工廠的產能。

完整原文

使用警語:中文譯文來源為 Google 翻譯,僅供參考,實際內容請以英文原文為主

  • Operator

  • Good day, and welcome to the Clean Energy Fuels Third Quarter 2022 Earnings Conference Call. (Operator Instructions)

  • At this time, I would like to turn the conference over to Mr. Robert Vreeland, Chief Financial Officer. Please go ahead, sir.

  • Robert M. Vreeland - CFO

  • Thank you, operator. Earlier this afternoon, Clean Energy released financial results for the third quarter ending September 30, 2022. If you did not receive the release, it is available on the Investor Relations section of the company's website at www.cleanenergyfuels.com, where the call is also being webcast. There will be a replay available on the website for 30 days.

  • Before we begin, we'd like to remind you that some of the information contained in the news release and on this conference call contains forward-looking statements that involve risks, uncertainties and assumptions that are difficult to predict. Words of expression reflecting optimism, satisfaction with current prospects as well as words such as believe, intend, expect, plan, should, anticipate and similar variations identify forward-looking statements, but their absence does not mean that the statement is not forward-looking. Such forward-looking statements are not a guarantee of performance, and the company's actual results could differ materially from those contained in such statements. Several factors that could cause or contribute to such differences are described in detail in the Risk Factors section of the Clean Energy's Form 10-Q filed today. These forward-looking statements speak only as of the date of this release. The company undertakes no obligation to publicly update any forward-looking statements or supply new information regarding the circumstances after the date of this release.

  • The company's non-GAAP EPS and adjusted EBITDA will be reviewed on this call and exclude certain expenses that the company's management does not believe are indicative of the company's core business operating results. Non-GAAP financial measures should be considered in addition to results prepared in accordance with GAAP, and should not be considered as a substitute for or superior to GAAP results. The directly comparable GAAP information, reasons why management uses non-GAAP information, a definition of non-GAAP EPS and adjusted EBITDA and a reconciliation between these non-GAAP and GAAP figures is provided in the company's press release, which has been furnished to the SEC on Form 8-K today.

  • With that, I will turn the call over to our President and Chief Executive Officer, Andrew Littlefair.

  • Andrew J. Littlefair - Co-Founder, President, CEO & Director

  • Thank you, Bob. Good afternoon, everyone, and thank you for joining us. I'm pleased to report that we expanded our leadership as the largest renewable natural gas fueling provider in the United States. In the third quarter of this year, we sold 54 million gallons of RNG, a 28% increase compared to the amount we sold in the same quarter of last year. Year-to-date, we have sold 122 million gallons of RNG into the transportation market, which is 18% more than we sold this time a year ago.

  • Our revenue for the quarter came in at $126 million compared to $86 million in Q3 of 2021, a 50% increase. The increase in this quarter's revenue was mostly driven by the growth in our fuel volumes as well as 2 additional quarters of the alternative fuel tax credit, ended the third quarter with $134 million of cash and investments. This is in addition to the $160 million that we've invested into our JVs for future low-carbon RNG supply. Overall, we find ourselves with a strong balance sheet, a rapidly growing business and a defined pathway to the future expansion of our renewable fuels business.

  • Key feature of that plan for future growth is our relationship with Amazon, as it continues to expand its fleet of heavy-duty trucks powered by renewable natural gas. As I have mentioned, Amazon trucks have been fueling at over 80 of our existing stations around the country for over a year. The significant milestone was met in this last quarter with the opening of the first station that we built from the ground up, as part of our agreement with Amazon. The station, just outside Columbus, Ohio is a state-of-the-art fueling facility that will allow more than 50 Amazon Class 8 trucks to fuel at the same time. It also has public access lanes for fast fueling for Amazon trucks and other fleets in the area.

  • I had the privilege to cut the ribbon at the station with members of Amazon's senior leadership, business partners, and [Ohio dairyman], who will be providing RNG to our fueling network, the local congressmen and other political and community leaders. Upon opening 53 brand-new Amazon trucks began fueling with RNG at this one station, allowing Amazon to realize huge carbon emission savings compared to diesel trucks. It's interesting to note that the other alternatives in the heavy-duty vehicle space continue to struggle to roll out that many trucks in total, making RNG the leader in clean fuel transportation.

  • Plans to expand the site and increase the capacity to be able to accommodate 84 Amazon trucks who are already in the works. This station opening was just the beginning of our execution of the Amazon agreement to build 19 new similar stations around the country. Stations in Illinois, Pennsylvania and Florida should be flowing RNG to the Amazon fleet in about a month with more by the end of the year and others opening early next year. Our relationship with Amazon continues to deepen, and we are excited about their long-range plans for their clean fleet of RNG trucks.

  • The Amazon stations are only a portion of our active construction portfolio. We plan to complete 27 station projects this year for our refuse, transit, trucking and airport customers, and an additional 43 stations are in some stage of the construction process. This is a solid backlog. In September, we signed a 3-year agreement to expand our relationship with our longtime customer waste management for 3 station projects where they will fuel their RNG refuse trucks. That will bring total stations at clean energy services for waste management to 96 in the U.S. and Canada.

  • We recently signed a new transit customer Valley Regional Transit in Idaho, which operates 30 buses. We also extended our relationship with Santa Monica's Big Blue transit agency, winning a contract to supply them with 1.8 million gallons of RNG for 177 buses. In addition to Amazon's adoption of RNG, carriers for other big brands like McDonald's and Unilever are ordering RNG trucks. So it's interesting to note that the carrier which won the Unilever bid did so by meeting the Unilever biogenic criteria assessment. That assessment wanted to know 3 criteria: 1, could the feedstock of the fuel be used as a food source; 2, is there a non-deforstation and land impact use of the feedstock; and 3, is there a better alternative use of the fuels feedstock.

  • In the Unilever bid, RNG had a perfect score. We also recently signed a contract with U.S. Foods to fuel 14 heavy-duty trucks at one of our stations in Sacramento. These companies continue to be focused on reducing greenhouse gas emissions and meeting sustainability goals and are not waiting for other technologies and their costly and uneconomic fueling infrastructure to be developed. The program with Chevron at the ports of L.A. and Long Beach continues to have success with a total of 850 heavy-duty trucks, either already financed or going through the approval process.

  • And speaking of the ports, another exciting event in the third quarter for me was attending a ceremony at the Port of Long Beach celebrating the first bunkering with liquefied natural gas of patients new containership. This is the first ship to use this clean fuel in the West Coast of the United States. 300,000 gallons of LNG went into the 774-foot ship from our liquefaction plant in Boron, California. Patient will be expanding its fleet with 2 additional container ships that will travel back and forth from Long Beach to Hawaii, powered by LNG. The second is expected to launch in May of next year, followed by the third ship in October 2023. In total, the 3 ships are expected to consume 105 million gallons of LNG from our Boron plant over the next 5 years.

  • And being the first is not always easy. I want to congratulate the Clean Energy team, which worked for years to get the deal done with Pasha and World Fuel Services that included providing bunkering support at the dry dock facility in Brownsville, Texas, where the newly built ship was commissioned. As you can imagine, the demand for bulk LNG continues to grow with volatile global energy markets. Our 2 LNG plants in California and Texas have been very busy. In fact, with the [Pasha's LNG] fuel deal, we are expanding the capacity at our Boron plant.

  • The third train should be completed in the second quarter of next year and will add 50% more capacity and increase production capability by 90,000 LNG gallons for a total of 270,000 gallons a day. Our Boron liquefaction plant is the only one of its kind in the state of California, which gives us a competitive advantage as demand increases. And speaking of production, our investment in new RNG sources primarily at dairies, continues at a healthy clip. We have great partners in Total Energies and BP that not only bring capital and strong balance sheets, but bring know-how in major projects like RNG digesters.

  • It doesn't seem like that long ago when I put a shovel in the dirt at Del Rio Dairy in Texas to break ground for the construction of our first new low-carbon RNG digester. With great effort from the team, the first RNG molecules are expected to be produced at Del Rio in early 2023. We've all been reading the announcements about the M&A activity in the RNG production space, which we see as a positive because it validates that there is a market and the importance of owning production assets. This was emphasized during the call with BP, CEO, Bernard Looney, after their announcement to buy Archaea.

  • Bernard and BP executives spoke of the value of their marketing relationship with Clean Energy that gives them access to our fueling infrastructure. No company is as well positioned as we are by owning and operating the largest fueling infrastructure in the country where the highest value of the RNG is captured. I'll close with saying that we are very pleased that the extension of the alternative fuel tax credit was included in the Inflation Reduction Act. This is assurance that for the next several years, RNG transportation fuel will be rewarded with a $0.50 a gallon credit. This is also a recognition by policymakers that this ultra-clean transportation fuel needs to be in the mix of alternatives.

  • There were other incentives in the IRA, which should help the expansion and the adoption of RNG as well. A new and significant investment tax credit of up to 30% for qualified biogas projects like our current and future RNG digesters at dairies was in the legislation. And the clean fuels production credit in the bill creates a valuable tax credit for the production of low emissions transportation fuels like RNG. Those are the highlights of a very productive third quarter. I feel good about the last quarter and the progress we've made as a company, and I feel even better about the future.

  • And with that, I'll hand the call over to Bob.

  • Robert M. Vreeland - CFO

  • Thank you, Andrew. Good afternoon to everyone. We reported solid third quarter results, which benefited from continued growth in RNG volumes as well as the alternative fuel tax credit that we anticipated despite seeing some pressure from elevated natural gas costs. Our results are a testament to the resilience of our diverse business model.

  • I want to take a moment here to discuss improvements, simplifications we've made in how we report our volumes. We're now disclosing 2 distinct volume categories of fuel gallons and O&M services gallons. These 2 volume categories align with their respective volume-related revenue included in our product and services revenue on our income statement. And you'll notice we've expanded disclosure of our product and service revenues as part of this change. While disclosing our total gallons has been meaningful and a good metric, we feel with our focus on RNG fuel and the divergent economics around fuel gallons versus O&M services gallons that we often talk about that going forward, it will be more beneficial to report fuel volumes and O&M services volumes separately.

  • Now moving to the third quarter results. On a GAAP basis, we reported a GAAP net loss of $9 million for the third quarter on revenues of $125.7 million. This compares to a GAAP net loss of $3.9 million on revenue of $86.1 million in the third quarter of 2021. The third quarter of 2022 benefited from approximately $10 million in incremental alternative fuel tax credit revenue when compared to last year. And we also recorded approximately $8.8 million in accelerated depreciation expense related to the removal of equipment at select Pilot locations that we talked about on our last call.

  • On a non-GAAP basis, we reported net income of $12.5 million for the third quarter of 2022 versus non-GAAP net income of $1.6 million in the prior year third quarter. The 2022 non-GAAP income benefited from the incremental alternative fuel tax credit revenue when compared to a year ago. The year-over-year growth in revenue, as we've mentioned, is attributed to the growth in fuel volumes and a rise in fuel prices compared to last year, as well as the catch-up on the alternative fuel tax credit revenue. Our RIN and LCFS revenues of $11.9 million for the third quarter of 2022 came in where we expected, reflecting lower credit pricing, particularly lower LCFS prices.

  • And really, the story on Q3 of 2022, which we're pleased with, the results was really, we did see a squeeze on fuel margins due to what some might say was a historic spike in natural gas costs that persisted for 2/3 of the quarter. And since oil and diesel prices were flat to lower in that period, we did not have as much room to raise our fuel prices. So our underlying fuel margins did get squeezed. My estimate on that on the squeeze is about $3 million for the quarter. Thus far, in the fourth quarter, we have seen natural gas costs come down from the highs in the third quarter. So we are anticipating an improvement in fuel margins in the fourth quarter, if we continue to see lower natural gas costs, along with the continued elevated fuel prices.

  • Having said this and looking at our adjusted EBITDA, we reported $24.1 million of adjusted EBITDA for the third quarter of 2022, which also benefited from the incremental alternative fuel tax credit during the quarter. A year ago, third quarter adjusted EBITDA was $13.4 million, which had 1 quarter of alternative fuel tax credit revenue. Year-to-date, our GAAP loss was $46.4 million, and adjusted EBITDA is $37.4 million, and we're guiding to approximately $58 million of a GAAP loss for the year and $60 million -- approximately $60 million of adjusted EBITDA for the year, which implies the fourth quarter needs cooperation from credit prices and fuel margins among others. But given our continued fuel volume growth and control on discretionary spend, we believe that our guidance can be met.

  • On the balance sheet and capital front, we remain active in securing a modest level of debt at the corporate level. We're targeting about $150 million as a bridge into 2023, and we are actively in that process as we speak. And then one last comment on the inflation -- the Inflation Reduction Act, of course, we think this act provides a significant tailwind to further support the development of RNG as a transportation fuel. The investment tax credit component helps returns, but importantly extends our capital resources, frankly, the whole sector's resources to do more RNG projects. And the production tax credit beginning in 2025 and add significant incentives to each gallon of RNG that's produced. We're engaged in all the feedback and evaluation of what ultimately will come back through the treasury department, and we look forward to getting more definitive guidance as we go forward on that act.

  • With that, operator, please open the call to questions.

  • Operator

  • (Operator Instructions) And we'll take our first question from the line of Eric Stine with Craig-Hallum.

  • Eric Andrew Stine - Senior Research Analyst

  • So first of all, I really think that the added disclosures are great. I mean these are questions that I've gotten from people for a long time, and I know it's in your filing, but take some work to kind of flesh out still for you to give them is a very good thing. Maybe first, could you just comment on volume growth or volumes that you're seeing across your 4 main segments? And I know one of the issues the industry is having right now is just supply chain and even though the economics are good, ability to get trucks. So maybe volumes now and maybe what you expect as that starts to improve?

  • Andrew J. Littlefair - Co-Founder, President, CEO & Director

  • Eric, it's a good question. And we have seen some supply. I know our friends in the refuse industry, for instance, we're seeing some supply bottlenecks, but frankly, had really nothing to do with the natural cash components. I mean it was examples given to me were doors and the locking mechanisms for doors and things like that. So we've seen some of that slowed the delivery in the last quarter on refuse trucks. That seems to have picked up some. We've seen the same thing with some of our over-the-road truck customers on Class 8 trucks. I know that there's been some delays that I think is really -- is not only happened for the several months this year, but also is going into the order book for next year. So we do see some of that. I guess I'm going to remain to be an optimist. I think that will begin to smooth out and catch up. I know he was troubling, particularly troubling earlier in the year. So just I guess we just have to hope that, that gets to be more normalized. Bob, maybe you have...

  • Robert M. Vreeland - CFO

  • Yes. I mean from the --

  • Andrew J. Littlefair - Co-Founder, President, CEO & Director

  • Of our segments.

  • Robert M. Vreeland - CFO

  • Yes. From the sectors, we've anticipated all year that we would have a ramp-up in volumes as we move through the year, and we did see that in the third quarter. So we were pleased to see that, and that was pretty much across the board between refuse and transit, particularly trucking and fleet services. So it was good to see most of the sectors really all do what we were wanting them and thought they would do for this quarter and frankly, looking into Q4 as well.

  • Andrew J. Littlefair - Co-Founder, President, CEO & Director

  • Eric, we've always had good volume growth, just the way the cycle works in the refuse sector, for instance, when they order trucks and when they get delivery trucks, we always see -- begin to see a pickup in volume in the third and fourth quarters of refuse. I can't put my finger on what happens on transit often on the delivery of buses. And of course, we see more trucks being delivered into our -- some of our over-the-road trucking customers and are expecting increased volume in the fourth quarter.

  • Eric Andrew Stine - Senior Research Analyst

  • Okay. That's helpful. And then certainly hearing, I know you've talked about it in the past, but I'm hearing from others that there is a lot of demand for the 15 liter and I know it's not coming until early 2024, but that's really not that far off. I mean, is that -- any details that you can share in terms of -- I know there are a few fleets that are considering some pretty significant rollouts once that Cummins engine is available?

  • Andrew J. Littlefair - Co-Founder, President, CEO & Director

  • I was last week in South Carolina at the Natural Gas Vehicle America's Annual Conference, which had a very big attendance, which pleased me. The gentleman in charge of the 15 liter from Cummins was there. And of course, we'd love to have him. He was a hot commodity. Everybody wanted to know when the engines were going to hit the ground and how many test units and when was the order book open and -- by the time I got there, he said, don't ask me any more questions. But there is great interest in that.

  • And as I've said, is that engine is the right engine now at the right time. The 15-liter, just as an industry goes, a 15-liter has a 75% or higher market share. So I mean that's what diesels are. And so I think our industry is very excited about now adding this into the portfolio of the engine. So we'll have the [11.9, 8.9 and 6.7]. So we're pleased with it. Those test engines, as you know, actually I think we discussed and I don't hold me to the exact dates here, but there's going to be a slug of test fleets that will begin to get those 15 leaders in their hands at the very late part of this year and early into the first quarter, and then they're going to run those engines a lot.

  • As they say in the business, we're going to try to break them. And then they go to school on that. And then they begin to make the final adjustments. And then those the order book sometime late in '23 will begin to open. So we're excited about it. I know the large fleets, we've all talked about the Walmart and other fleets of that ilk wanting to be involved and talking about being involved in the test. We're also seeing a similar interest in Canada. Very large trucking fleets up there are very much interested in the 15-liter, Canada allows for heavier freight. I think it's 100,000 pounds or 110,000 pounds. And so 15 liters really important there. So this engine is what the industry needs. And with the RNG, you'll have really, for the first time, the cleanest, lowest carbon engine, providing all the torque and horsepower that you need in the business.

  • Eric Andrew Stine - Senior Research Analyst

  • Okay. I'll take the rest offline.

  • Operator

  • We'll take our next question from the line of Rob Brown with Lake Street Capital Markets.

  • Robert Duncan Brown - Senior Research Analyst

  • On the RNG production kind of capacity adds that you're doing, could you kind of give us an update of where you'll think the -- your RNG production, I guess, through JVs will be sort of as you get this first wave done, what's sort of the gallon volume of production you think you can get to?

  • Andrew J. Littlefair - Co-Founder, President, CEO & Director

  • Rob, I think without getting into the minutia of which project is where in the construction cycle and all that. I mean, we -- as I've said, I'm sticking with the fact that we're on track what we talked about on RNG Day. We've got 7 and soon to be 8 projects actually with earning dirt and under construction and a like number ready to enter into the construction projects. So we feel really good about that. And then what's different on this call from the last call is that we have 7 more projects that have now moved into development. That's advanced engineering and due diligence before you would actually have them signed. Now you're spending money. So you should anticipate you're going to bring all those on. So that's increasing the number of projects that we have.

  • And then as I've talked about before, just to kind of try to keep the numbers somewhat same is -- and then we now continue to have in addition to those, [20] more in the pipeline. So I feel very good about where we stand and where we said we would be in terms of production. I will say that the construction projects can slip 2 months from here to there. I mean there's still roughly the same amount of time to build, as we've always said, between the time that you sign a deal and you bring it on production and begin to go into commercial production and count the RNG gallons. It's the better part of 18 months. So we've got to get these projects on, and we're making good progress on that.

  • We're also, Rob, if you go back and if you would, those on the call, look at our RNG Day, we've had a very good year 2022 of adding in our third-party RNG. And that, as you know, is an important component to go alongside with the projects that we'll have under developed in construction with our partners ourselves.

  • Robert Duncan Brown - Senior Research Analyst

  • Okay. Great. And then kind of second question is around the Amazon activity. It's starting nicely. How is their long-range plans changed? Are they still sort of on track with their plans? Are they expanding their thinking? Or just where is that at longer term?

  • Andrew J. Littlefair - Co-Founder, President, CEO & Director

  • Well, I get in a big time trouble if I start talking about what their plans are, Rob, but good try. But I guess what I can say is I was very encouraged to meet all the senior team of transportation out at our growth port, Ohio station. And we had dinner and meetings with them in and around that opening. I think it was really important for them to see those trucks, those beautiful Amazon Blue trucks all hooked up and fueling. They've ordered a lot of trucks. And I'll let their numbers and their press releases and some of their tweets speak for itself about how many they've done. But they have said in their sustainability reporting that upwards of 2,000 trucks. And we're seeing those come. They've ordered those trucks. These stations need to get open to be able to begin to fuel those trucks. And so we're -- can't be any too soon to get a lot of these stations completed. So I feel real good about it. And I really can't say any more about their next Phase 3 or Phase 4. You can imagine, though, that we're staying very close with them as they're developing those plans.

  • Operator

  • Our next question comes from the line of Dushyant Ailani with Jefferies.

  • Dushyant Ajit Ailani - Equity Analyst

  • So maybe just the first question was a little bit more kind of digging into the demand. How have your conversations been with customers in terms of just deploying capital towards NGVs in the light of maybe potential weakness in the economy. I know you talked about some positives, but is that across the board? Or how do we think about that?

  • Andrew J. Littlefair - Co-Founder, President, CEO & Director

  • Well, I think -- and Dushyant, first off, welcome aboard. I know you're covering us, newly covering us, so we appreciate it. I think it's true that these fleets are struggling with lots of things, right? They are looking at the uncertainties of the economy and inflation pressures, employee shortages and supply chain. So it hasn't been exactly business as usual for certainly trucking companies. Now the good news is freight was up and the economy was fairly strong. But there's a lot on their mind. And yet the same -- so I would say that they're being cautious. You have to keep in mind that we're asking somebody to go out and buy a brand new truck. Now good news is these fleets replace and are on normal replacement cycle. So it's not like we're asking to do something they wouldn't otherwise be doing. And yet at the same time, they're all facing an ever-increasing pressure on their climate reduction goals and sustainability goals.

  • And so we find them to be very open, and we're having very meaningful discussions. And we have a large sales force that does nothing but calls on trucking fleets. And we're making, I think, very good progress. I think some of our fleets are probably really have an eye on what's happening on the 15-liter, a lot of them will avail themselves to a 15 liter. Not all need that. I mean, Amazon has taken 11.9 liters, so I don't want to give the impression that the business will stop and wait for the new engine. But I know a lot of the largest for-hire fleets will want the 15 liter as well. So there's a little time here, I think, is what you see, too.

  • Dushyant Ajit Ailani - Equity Analyst

  • Understood. And I think my next question was primarily on how do we think about for the -- just the level of debt that you'll be taking on. Have you consider project financing? Or how do you kind of think about the different avenues, when you are thinking about --?

  • Andrew J. Littlefair - Co-Founder, President, CEO & Director

  • Yes. Bob, why don't you go ahead.

  • Robert M. Vreeland - CFO

  • Yes. I mean, I think it's -- well, it's a little bit of a step process. But yes, we will consider absolutely project financing. Our first step being though at the clean energy corporate level because we literally have no debt that we can put on and I'll call $150 million a modest level of debt. And so we would do that. That kind of bridges us into then further evaluate that project financing landscape, right? And that can come in different flavors, where it goes and what parties get involved. There's a lot of interest on that front. I mean so it's not at all lack of interest out there on that. So it's just -- it's the time. So we're kind of first things first. We'll go (technical difficulty)

  • Andrew J. Littlefair - Co-Founder, President, CEO & Director

  • Dushyant, we have said that we would put project level debt on as these projects become a little bit more developed. And we've imagined that, that level would be somewhere between 200 and $400 million at the project level. So as Bob says, it's kind of a step process, we'll put it on the corporate debt. And then the next piece will be sort of at the project level. And you'll see that next year in the first part of the year.

  • Robert M. Vreeland - CFO

  • Yes. I mean, we're considering all everything...

  • Andrew J. Littlefair - Co-Founder, President, CEO & Director

  • We're working on all that right now.

  • Robert M. Vreeland - CFO

  • In terms of the strategy behind all that.

  • Operator

  • We'll take our next question from the line of Matthew Blair with TPH.

  • Unidentified Analyst

  • This is (inaudible) filling in for Matthew Blair. So first, I know it may be too early for this question, and there's still a lot of unknowns, but just curious what your guys' thoughts are on [E RIN] being included in the RFS, how that might impact D3 RIN pricing and CLNE.

  • Andrew J. Littlefair - Co-Founder, President, CEO & Director

  • Yes. No, it's a good question. We -- I guess if I handicap the upcoming RVO, I'm imagining the E RIN will be in it. And we have put out formal comments and met with EPA that -- and I think most of the industry as saying that we believe that for them to develop a constructive RVO and maintain healthy RIN pricing is that they should be thinking of the E RIN to be additive to the upcoming volume obligations. We'll see if it is completely additive, proportionately additive, but I think you could imagine that it will be. I think long term, it should be in the count. And I also think that I'm hopeful that they'll move the RVO up. And I think that should end up in sort of the middle to longer term, it will all be constructive, I think, for RIN pricing. I think it would be a mistake, and I hope I can see right now the EPA administrated, what these are political -- these are somewhat quasi political decisions and got to have expensive gasoline. So they're very sensitive. But I think I also believe that the EPA believes that they should include the electricity in this. And I think they will, and I think eventually, it will all end up making for an important part of the whole renewable fuel standard.

  • Unidentified Analyst

  • Sounds good. And on the second one, just...

  • Andrew J. Littlefair - Co-Founder, President, CEO & Director

  • By the way, one thing on that, just to interrupt, I'm sorry to interrupt. We think that there are a lot of dairies in the United States, mean literally, probably thousands of them that are probably too small for participating or putting in a digester that then would clean up the gas and put it into a pipeline. And -- but we believe there are lots and lots of dairies, thousands of dairies that would end up using manure and generating power. And what you'll find is that RNG will be the cleanest feedstock to create low-carbon electrons. And those will end up participating in the whole program and also in the low carbon fuel standard. So I think it will be constructive for the RNG business.

  • Unidentified Analyst

  • Yes, makes sense. And so on the second one, just noticing that the Amazon warrant charge outlook was reduced to the lower end of the previous outlook. And if I recall correctly, those warrant charges are based on Amazon's rollout or have some relation to Amazon's roll out. And so just wanted to ask if Amazon's roll out at today is trending in line with expectations?

  • Andrew J. Littlefair - Co-Founder, President, CEO & Director

  • Well, it's trending in line with kind of renewed expectations that we probably solve back when we kind of move some of our guidance and what earlier in the year. So they're trending there. But from a guidance standpoint, the amount that you're seeing is really what would -- what factors into being at approximately $60 million of adjusted EBITDA. So it's really not -- it's not really bring it's -- it's really coming off of a high range that was in our previous guidance of $65 million adjusted EBITDA. So it was -- that really is just probably the more likely number. That's why we moved the range to just really approximately $60 million, and that's the number that's in there. So it's meeting expectations with what we've guided to and where we think we'll finish the year.

  • Operator

  • We'll take our next question from the line of Graham Price with Raymond James.

  • Graham Price

  • I guess, first one just on the RNG projects, what kind of ramp-up period should we expect for projects to get kind of a steady state operations. Just wondering if there is sort of a roll from there.

  • Andrew J. Littlefair - Co-Founder, President, CEO & Director

  • Well, no, it's a good question, Graham. I mean, after you bring -- after you commission a project, there is actually about a 6 month period as you wait for the certification of the pathway of the CARB and fixing your carbon intensity, right, before you really generate any credits. So you have to kind of think about it as the construction period and on the front end and then the year of construction. So it's 16 months to 18 months and then there has been anywhere between 4-month, 6-month period while you basically before you really in commercial generation of credits, while you're just kind of waiting for the CARB to certify your carbon intensity. Now the industry is working, see if there isn't any way to speed that up and so we all think that, that could be done faster. And we hope that, that will be the case. And then ARB is working on a true-up period in this and that. So we'll see how all that, all comes about. But we'd like to think that, that's more of administrative, and it would be really nice if that could be tightened some.

  • Graham Price

  • Got it. Now that's clear. And then, I guess, switching gears a little bit on the new fuel and service volumes breakout that you provide, you indicated certain gallons are included in both fuel and service volumes. So I was just wondering if it would be possible to get the number of gallons that are kind of being counted in both of those buckets.

  • Andrew J. Littlefair - Co-Founder, President, CEO & Director

  • Yes. So there are -- what that relates to is really in the past, we had a category of volumes where we provide fuel and we do the services. And so we're giving -- our comment there is giving you a heads up that there -- that, that is going on, and that was really -- so that maybe because those that have followed us for a long time would maybe naturally just add these together and some -- and then maybe try to get to a total volume, and we're cautioning on that. Now the reason I'm not jumping out with a number per se on that is because our focus is on the fuel gallons that are generating our fuel revenue, our volume-related fuel revenue and the service gallons that are generating our volume-related service revenue.

  • And to know if there's some that are in both is not necessarily relevant at this point. What you want to know is what are your fuel volumes that drive the fuel revenue and what are your service volumes that drive service revenue. Now we've made this change a bit overnight, if you will, the new quarter, kind of cold turkey. All I'll say is if you look back at kind of prior quarters, that category was around 20 million gallons that you would say, "Oh, you do both fuel and services on. And that's probably in the ballpark of what this quarter was. But I appreciate the question on it, just to clarify, that aspect of us looking at the volume set distinctly somewhat separate. And really, we've always talked about it. We've always gone through and talked about our volumes and made folks aware that there was a service volume and economics associated with that as well as fuel and some that where we do both. I mean, we love the ones where we do both. I mean that's typically -- I mean, that's where we're going to get some of our highest margins because we're doing both service and fuel. And so we make a lot.

  • Robert M. Vreeland - CFO

  • And I just may mentioned there, one of the reasons that we continue to go out and do service for our customers, as someone say, "Gosh, you make a lot less on those gallons than you do on providing the fuel is because often, New York City Transit is a good example. We were doing this service on those gallons. And then 1 day, they called us up and said, "Hey, could you provide us RNG? And now we do. We provide them RNG. So we're doing -- we're fueling them now. So that's why it's important for us to continue to be able to provide that as well to our customers because someday we'll be able to -- since we are the leader in the RNG, we'll end up converting those to RNG fuel gallons.

  • Operator

  • Our next question comes from the line of Betty Zhang with Scotiabank.

  • Y. Zhang - Associate

  • First question is going to be on Del Rio. You mentioned in your prepared remarks that the first molecules are especially coming in early 2023. Is that a bit of a delay from previous guidance for fourth quarter? And if so, what could be causing that delay?

  • Andrew J. Littlefair - Co-Founder, President, CEO & Director

  • Betty, first off, welcome to your bank. Thank you for the coverage. We figured we would get that project on and be in commercial operations. It's very tail end of 2022, and it looks like now it's going to be in the very front end of 2023.

  • Robert M. Vreeland - CFO

  • And that's some supply chain things. I mean there's, I think, a couple of components, if you will, that will get here, but just are going to move that schedule of commissioning and kind of getting into commercial operation into the first part of '23. I mean, so that's it. I mean that project is going well. It's very exciting. I mean, we're -- there's a lot going on to gear up for the -- for everything, maintenance and the gallons, the dairyman and...

  • Andrew J. Littlefair - Co-Founder, President, CEO & Director

  • I mean, if you were out there, Betty, we just had a bunch of people tour at the other day. I mean, you'd look at it and say, wow, this thing is done. So it's getting there. It's very close. So it's impressive.

  • Y. Zhang - Associate

  • Got it. Okay. And the next question is on BP's acquisition of Archaea. You had mentioned this a bit in your prepared remarks, but wanted to dig in a bit more. How does it impact your existing JV with them? And then they also did mention wanting to expand their distribution footprint with you guys. What do you think that could entail?

  • Andrew J. Littlefair - Co-Founder, President, CEO & Director

  • Yes. We're very excited for that. I don't want to speak too much for BP. BP though, I think, has been fairly public in saying that they believe that RNG and transportation sector is the highest use for RNG. They have -- I think they said on their call that they envisioned that some of that RNG from the landfill projects, the current ones and the future ones would find its way to the transportation sector. And of course, when that happens, most if not all of that would come through our marketing agreement. So we're very excited about it. We see it as a big new source for us and very, very pleased with that partnership and happy that they're bringing all that into the marketing agreement as it comes.

  • Operator

  • And there are no further questions at this time. I'd like to turn the call back over for additional or closing remarks to Mr. Littlefair.

  • Andrew J. Littlefair - Co-Founder, President, CEO & Director

  • Well, thank you, operator. Thank you, everyone, for joining today's call. I look forward to updating you on our progress in the next quarter. Good afternoon.

  • Operator

  • This concludes today's call. Thank you for your participation, and you may now disconnect.