Core Laboratories Inc (CLB) 2018 Q2 法說會逐字稿

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  • Operator

  • Good day, and welcome to the Core Lab Q2 2018 Conference Call. (Operator Instructions)

  • Please note, this event is being recorded.

  • I would now like to turn the conference over to David Demshur, Chairman and CEO of Core Laboratory (sic) [Core Laboratories]. Please go ahead.

  • David M. Demshur - CEO & Chairman of Supervisory Board

  • Thanks, Gilly. Good morning in North American, good afternoon in Europe and good evening in Asia Pacific. We'd like to welcome all of our shareholders, analysts and most importantly, our employees to Core Laboratories Second Quarter 2018 Earnings Conference Call.

  • This morning, I am joined by Dick Bergmark, Core's Executive Vice President; Monty Davis, Core's COO; Chris Hill, Core's CFO; Gwen Schreffler, Core's Head of IR; and Larry Bruno, Core's President, who will be giving a detailed operational review.

  • The call will be divided into 5 segments. Gwen will start by making remarks regarding forward-looking statements. Then, we will review the current macro environment, updating industry trends that should be beneficial to Core. We will then review Core's 3 financial tenets, which the company employs to build long-term shareholder value. Chris will then follow with a detailed financial overview and additional comments regarding building shareholder value. This will be followed by Gwen discussing Core's third quarter 2018 outlook and a general industry outlook as it pertains to Core's prospects. And then Larry will go over Core's 2 operating segments, detailing our progress and discussing the successful introduction of new Core Lab technologies and then highlighting some of Core's operations and major projects worldwide. Then, we'll open the phones for a Q&A session.

  • I'll now turn it back over to Gwen for remarks regarding forward-looking statements. Gwen?

  • Gwendolyn Y. Schreffler - SVP of Corporate Development & IR

  • Before we start the conference call this morning, I'll mention that some of the statements that we make during this call may include projections, estimates and other forward-looking information. This would include any discussion of the company's business outlook. These types of forward-looking statements are subject to a number of risks and uncertainties relating to the oil and gas industry, business conditions, international market, international political climate and other factors, including those discussed in our 34 Act filings that may affect our outcome. Should one or more of these risks or uncertainties materialize should any of our assumptions prove incorrect, actual results may vary in material respect from those projected in the forward-looking statement. We undertake no obligation to publicly update or revise any forward-looking statements whether as a result of new information, future events or otherwise. For a more detailed discussion of some of the foregoing risks and uncertainties, see Item 1A Risk Factors in our annual report on Form 10-K for the fiscal year ended December 31, 2017, as well as other reports and registration statements filed by us with the SEC and the AFM.

  • Our comments include non-GAAP financial measures. Reconciliation to the most directly comparable GAAP financial measures is included in the press release announcing our second quarter results. Those non-GAAP financial measures can also be found on our website.

  • With that said, I'll pass the discussion back to Dave.

  • David M. Demshur - CEO & Chairman of Supervisory Board

  • Thanks, Gwen. First, some industry investment trends that are taking place. Core is encouraged that operating companies are buying into living within free cash flow and emphasizing returns on invested capital as demanded by today's investors. This trend should benefit Core whose clients tend to be more technologically sophisticated and are heavy users of technology over commodity-driven solutions offered by drillers, pressure pumpers and wireline providers.

  • Now for the macro operating environment. Projected 2018 U.S.-related CapEx is still running approximately 40% below 2014 peak levels when record amounts of capital was being destroyed leading to over 130 U.S. E&P bankruptcies. Core projects that the U.S. will drill 18,000 less wells in 2018 when compared to 2014 but still add approximately 1.6 million barrels to its production base of 9.2 million barrels per day from May of 2017. The industry is drilling fewer but better wells, more efficient wells and wells that benefit Core Lab as E&Ps are high grading reservoir quality to their Tier 1 zones and employing new Core Lab technologies like our Digital Rock Characterization services, our digital analytics; Core's FlowProfiler engineered delivery systems; and our HEROPerFRAC completion systems to name a few. A new emerging trend will be the upsizing of well spacing in more mature reasons -- regions, as we learn more and more about the deleterious effects of down spacing on parent-child well relationships. Seven operators -- several operators, including Pioneer Natural Resources have already signaled this trend. The industry will continue to add perf clusters per stage, yielding less stages while lateral lengths are nearing maximum levels owing to frictional forces. Perf clusters per stage could increase from 5 to 6 to as many as 15 per stage, reducing the time and cost for well completion and stimulation programs, owing to a lesser and lower stage count. Pad sizes are said to further increase with as many as 24 or more wells per pad being drilled.

  • This will add to DUCs over the next year as operators will only frac the pad after all wells have been drilled. We are starting to observe the use of micro proppants in complex completions, with some 200 mesh sand being incorporated into some stimulation program. Core continues to test the effectiveness of both 200 and 400 mesh sand in these upcoming complex completions. Core's clients see the largest potential increases in their ROICs tied to boosting recovery rates from unconventional reservoirs. Extensive proprietary studies and joint industry projects have shown great promise with some recovery factors increasing from an average of about 9% into the low and mid-teens. Utilizing EOR in unconventional reservoirs has the potential to add 500,000 barrels of oil over the life of a well that originally had a type curve of 1 million barrels for an incremental CapEx spend of about $2 million. That's a real ROIC winner. Core's testing shows that every formation and basin will have unique designs needed for EOR in unconventional reservoirs to be successful. The engineered gases that enable greater recovery rates will require extensive testing and specifications, services that are only available from Core Lab today. The latest and most important trend for Core is that client discussions have continued to increase for international and deepwater longer-cycle projects that will be needed to meet future production demands. The foreshadow of this increase in activity has been evident in the 20 FIDs approved in 2017 with another 25 to 30 expected in 2018. Revenues from these longer-cycle projects have been mainly absent from Core's Reservoir Description revenue streams dating back to 2015 and should start to bolster Reservoir Description revenue late in 2018. Core's revenue opportunity usually occurs 3 to 4 quarters after an FID has been sanctioned. Remember, a rig needs to be mobilized, wells need to be drilled and then cores and fluids can be sampled from the reservoir zones to be analyzed by Core in its Reservoir Description laboratories.

  • Q1 2018 Reservoir Description results did mark the bottom of the international and deepwater cycle. Increases in global demand, increases in net decline curve rates and decreases in global inventories that had been occurring since July of 2016 coupled with steeply falling production in Mexico, Venezuela, Colombia, Angola, China and the North Sea has tightened global markets to the point where longer-dated barrels on the futures curve have to increase in price to ensure greater international and deepwater investment for future supply. To note, Brent crude has recently reverted to contango status after being in backwardation for over a year. Remember, the client curve always wins and it never sleeps.

  • Now to review the 3 financial tenets by which Core used to build shareholder value over our 22-year-plus history of being a publicly traded company. During the second quarter of 2018, Core generated $19,500,000 in free cash and converted 11% of every revenue dollar into free cash, the highest in all oilfield services. The dip in 1H free cash flow is typical as operations consume working capital in anticipation of growing their businesses for -- throughout 2018 and into 2019. And once again, Core produced the oilfield industry-leading return on invested capital for the 35th consecutive quarter with an ROIC of 28%, over double Core's weighted average cost of capital. Core's 28% ROIC is over 3x that of any other company listed in the OSX. Also during the Second Quarter of 2018, Core returned over $24 million back to our shareholders via our quarterly dividend and some small shareholder repurchases. Core will continue to return all its capital back to our shareholders in future quarters with -- via quarterly dividends and opportunistic share repurchases.

  • I will now turn it back over to Gwen -- back over to Chris for a detailed financial review. Chris?

  • Christopher Scott Hill - Senior VP & CFO

  • Thanks, David. Before I begin, I would like to remind everyone that our guidance provided on June 29 in past call specifically excluded the impact of any FX gains or losses and assumed an effective tax rate of 15% for the second quarter. So accordingly, our discussion today excludes any foreign exchange gain or loss for current and prior periods and is also reflective of results from continuing operations.

  • Now looking at the income statement. Revenues from continuing operations were $175.5 million in the second quarter, up 11% year-over-year from Q2 2017, and this growth is primarily attributable to our business in North America. Of this revenue, service revenue, which is more international, was $122.1 million for the quarter, up $5 million year-over-year, which is over a 4% increase from the same quarter last year. Product sales, which is tied more to North American activities, were $53.4 million for the quarter, an increase of over 29% or $12.1 million year-over-year. Our product sales revenue is primarily driven by completions of wells in the North American market and more specifically, the activity associated with the completion of each stage in a wellbore. We continue to benefit from the increasing completion activity in the U.S., and our plants' acceptance of our new products such as our HEROPerFRAC perforating system.

  • Moving on to cost of services. 71% of service revenue remained relatively consistent year-over-year and from the previous quarters. Cost of sales in the second quarter was 69% of product sales revenue, which continues to improve and is significantly improved from the 81% for the same quarter last year. We continue to see improvements in our operating leverage and the absorption of our fixed costs on higher levels of product sales. G&A for the quarter was $12.2 million, which is consistent with the last few quarters. We expect G&A to be around $50 million for the full year.

  • Depreciation and amortization for the quarter was $5.9 million and comparable with the last several quarters. Depreciation expense is expected to be approximately $24 million to $25 million for the full year. EBIT ex items for the quarter was $34.1 million, up over 23% from prior year and continues to represent best-in-class EBIT margins of 19%. GAAP EBIT for the quarter was $33.4 million. Income tax expense for the quarter was $4.6 million, using an effective tax rate of 15% and was $5 million on a GAAP basis. As discussed in prior earnings calls, the effective tax rate will continue to be somewhat sensitive to the geographic mix of earnings across the globe. Net income from continuing operations ex items for the quarter was $26.2 million, up 23% or $4.9 million from $21.3 million in the second quarter of last year. GAAP net income for the quarter was $24.8 million. Earnings per diluted share from continuing operations ex items was $0.59 and GAAP EPS was $0.57 for the quarter.

  • Now we'll move on to significant aspects of the balance sheet. Receivables stood at $136.1 million, up from $133.1 million at last year-end, and importantly, our DSO showed a slight improvement for the quarter at 67 days. Inventory at $39.9 million is up $3.4 million sequentially as demand for products continues to expand, and we made some bulk purchases of raw materials during the quarter in anticipation of potential tariffs.

  • Inventory turns have remained consistent in the first half of 2018, and we expect our inventory turns to show improvement throughout the remainder of the year.

  • And now to the liability side of the balance sheet. Our long-term debt ended the quarter at $242 million, up from $227 million at year-end. On June 19, we amended and extended our revolving credit facility for an additional 5 years under substantially the same terms as our previous agreement. The new facility has the capacity of $300 million with an accordion option to increase the facility an additional $100 million. Looking at cash flow in the second quarter, cash flow from operating activities was $27 million and after paying for our $7.5 million in CapEx, our free cash flow in the quarter was $19.5 million. We expect capital expenditures for the year to be around $20 million, and we will continue to adhere to our strict capital discipline, as we evaluate the capital expenditure opportunities throughout the year based on client demand. Our free cash flow conversion ratio, which is free cash flow divided by net income, continues to be one of the highest in the industry at 78% for the quarter and the first half of 2018. Additionally, we would expect our free cash flow conversion to improve for the second half of 2018. We believe this is an important metric for shareholders when comparing company's financial results, particularly for those shareholders who utilize discounted cash flow models to assess valuations.

  • I will now turn it over to Gwen for an update on our guidance and outlook.

  • Gwendolyn Y. Schreffler - SVP of Corporate Development & IR

  • Thank you, Chris. Our outlook and guidance is unchanged from that provided in our June 29, 2018, update. Worldwide crude oil markets are currently underbalanced as seen in current global crude oil inventory and days of consumption and inventory data reported by the International Energy Agency. The IEA most recently estimated that worldwide demand will increase in 2018 by 1.4 million barrels of oil per day. Renewed investment at a global level is critical in order to meet future supply needs. Oil company recognition of the need for investment is evidenced by the approximately 25 to 30 final investment decisions estimated to be announced in 2018 with approximately 15 announced year to date. We believe third quarter 2018 international exploration and production activity levels will be flat to slightly up sequentially, with most international development spending continuing to be funded largely from operating budget. We expect overall international activity improvement to remain low due to slower-than-expected increases in the international rig count. The average third quarter 2018 U.S. rig count is projected to be slightly up sequentially with completion activity levels showing modest growth. Additionally, we estimate the U.S. completion growth rate will moderate until transitory takeaway bottlenecks are resolved in the permian. In addition, the emerging trend of super pad drilling sites increasing beyond 24 wells per pad will create an increase in drills with uncompleted wells over the next several quarters. We are also encouraged by the increased focus of our major clients on investments and technology that will yield higher shareholder return. The E&P companies adopting value versus volume metric tend to be more technologically sophisticated operators and form the foundation of our worldwide client base. Client planning for international and offshore projects is gradually progressing and as these projects move forward, our activities sourced from these markets is expected to improve in late 2018 and 2019.

  • Our Reservoir Description segment, international client project discussions continues to increase in alignment with FIDs announced year-to-date. However, activity levels and revenue opportunities from those FIDs and the emerging international recovery are not expected to have a positive financial impact until late fourth quarter 2018 and throughout 2019. The revenue opportunity occurs once the well has been drilled and the core and fluid samples taken and analyzed. Our Production Enhancement segment is expected to experience continued growth with year-over-year incremental margins in line with historical average 60% levels. Although, as mentioned above, permian basin takeaway issues could moderate the growth rate. Therefore, we expect consolidated third quarter 2018 revenue of approximately $177 million to $179 million and operating income of approximately $36.2 million to $37.2 million, yielding operating margins that exceeds 20%, up 360 basis points year-over-year. EPS for the third quarter 2018 is expected to be approximately $0.64 to $0.66. Our third quarter 2018 guidance excludes gains or losses in foreign exchange and assumes an effective tax rate of 15%.

  • Now I'll recap our Q3 guidance assumptions. The first assumption, flat international with modest FID impact; and our second assumption, based on our guidance, the Production Enhancement segment's historical recovery incrementals of 60-plus percent are implied in the Q3 guidance.

  • And with that guidance, we'll turn the call over to Larry for an operational review.

  • Lawrence V. Bruno - President & Supervisory Director

  • Thanks, Gwen. First, I'd like to thank our 4,600 employees around the globe for providing innovative solutions, integrity and superior service to our clients. Our employees are the engine that keeps Core Lab running.

  • Looking first at Reservoir Description, as described in the Q1 commentary, Core Lab received several cores from discovery wells drilled on the north slope of Alaska. These cores are now in the lab undergoing basic and advanced rock property testing that will define the geological and petrophysical properties of the reservoir zones. This analytical program, which includes many reservoir stress conditional laboratory experiments will continue over the next several quarters. While these traditional lab test are being conducted, the client is making use of our early-type petrophysical parameters generated by Core's proprietary Digital Rock Characterization services. With this technology, lithology, porosity and geomechanical data were generated within days of the core reaching the lab.

  • Core continues to see increasing demand for various enhanced oil recovery solutions that require its proprietary reservoir conditioning techniques and state-of-the-art lab testing capabilities. Both conventional and unconventional reservoirs are being addressed to identify EOR opportunities. For example, in Core's Aberdeen facility, the rock and reservoir fluids labs are working on a project for an E&P major that is an industry leader in carbon capture and storage. The goal of the project is to reduce CO2 emissions by identifying and capturing CO2 produced from the reservoir within their production stream, then separating out that CO2 and reinjecting the CO2 back into crude oil bearing reservoir zones in their North Sea fields. Core is helping the client understand how the CO2 injection will affect the chemical and physical properties of the reservoir fluid as well as determining the optimum pressure for CO2 injection so as to maximize the incremental barrels of oil that can be recovered by this EOR process. In the second quarter, Core also saw increasing adoption of reservoir conditioned engineered gas injection laboratory experiment as a means to validate EOR opportunities in unconventional reservoirs. These laboratory programs employ specialized analytical devices that are proprietary to Core Lab. Core has both single-client and multicompany lab-based projects underway for a variety of its technologically sophisticated clients that are assessing the potential for enhanced oil recovery in these tight rocks. Some clients have moved from lab experiments to field-scale experiments to determine the best methods for maximizing incremental crude oil production recovered by these cycled gas-injection techniques. Lab analytical programs are underway in Eagle Ford and Permian Basin regions as well as preliminary work on international unconventional reservoir targets.

  • Also in the second quarter, operators in the Gulf of Mexico area of the United States as well as international locations began using a new laboratory service package offered by Core Lab to evaluate the reservoir conditions at which potentially damaging asphaltene particles begin to flocculate in the crude oil. Understanding the details of this process will allow the client companies to mitigate formation damage and permeability impairment. Due to the extreme pressures and temperatures encountered in the deepwater arena, Core brought together a combination of proprietary rock and reservoir fluid laboratory technologies to address these challenging analytical programs.

  • In central China, in Q2, Core began a multiwell analytical program on cores to evaluate a potential unconventional gas reservoir. In addition to measurements performed in the field, an extensive laboratory program is underway to measure the reservoir properties and determine the best completion and stimulation practices. Geological, geochemical, geomechanical and petrophysical analysis are being performed. Core has already proven proprietary technologies, like RW Core and MR Shale magnetic resonance testing are being used to better understand the rock and reservoir fluid properties.

  • Turning now to Production Enhancement. As many of you are aware, Core focuses on energetic products that are engineered to enhance recovery from oil and gas fields. We do not focus on the commodity gun market as a driver for our business. As such, Core's ballistic engineers recently teamed up with a major service provider to conduct laboratory experiments on the productivity enhancements provided by Core's patented KODIAK propellant when compared to commodity-perforating products. The productivity improvements seen in the 7-inch diameter, 30-inch long sand stone core sample were presented at an SPE International Conference on Formation Damage and published in an accompanying technical paper. Core's Reservoir Description scientists provided detailed analysis of the rock fabric in both the pre and post shot cores using proprietary CT, micro-CT and other imaging technologies. This analysis show significant permeability increase and better cleanup near the walls of the perforation tunnel. These are attributes that will improve reservoir productivity. In a recent field application, in a tight unconventional reservoir in West Texas, the operators confirmed that initial production had increased by 15% by using Core's KODIAK Enhanced Perforating System.

  • Core Lab continues to provide innovative technologies that brings value to its customer. An example of this is Core's proprietary Oriented plug and perf technology. Commodity perforating systems cannot be reliably oriented in the wellbore prior to initiation. This poses a risk to costly downhole cables that provide reservoir temperature and pressure data. If the cables are severed during the perforating process, this critical data opportunity could be lost. In Q2 Core's Oriented plug and perf system was successfully used on 2 50 stage wells in a Duvernay formation in Canada having greatly de-risked the loss of data due to severed cables.

  • Also in the second quarter of 2018, Core saw even broader acceptance of FlowProfiler EDS, a proprietary technology that uses an engineered delivery system for completion diagnostics. The breakthrough EDS technology enables a diagnostic tracer element to be absorbed and chemically bonded to the durable proppant-sized particles that accompany the frac sand. EDS has rapidly become the preferred method for monitoring completion success and for assessing oil production from individual stages of unconventional horizontal completions.

  • Recently, an operator in the Eagle Ford formation in South Texas used FlowProfiler EDS for 2 of their potentially high-volume crude oil wells. The client recognized the advantage of having the diagnostic tracer deployed with the proppant during the frac operation as opposed to traveling in a liquid phase within the frac fluid. In addition, the FlowProfiler EDS tracer element is time released from the durable particles as crude oil flows through the propped fracture network. The operator is currently working with Core's engineers on computations to assist in optimizing their future completion strategies.

  • That concludes our operational review. We appreciate your participation, and Gilly will now open the call for questions.

  • Operator

  • (Operator Instructions) The first question comes from Jim Wicklund with Crédit Suisse.

  • James Knowlton Wicklund - MD

  • Reservoir Description, Q1 was the lowest revenue level I've got on my model, going back 8 years or so, and Q2 was up slightly. Has Reservoir Description revenues bottomed here? And if they have, when do we get back to 20% EBITDA margins? Is that a 2019 event? How is your crystal ball looking?

  • David M. Demshur - CEO & Chairman of Supervisory Board

  • Yes, Jim. We feel that reservoir description did bottom in Q1 of 2018 and 20% margins probably get stretched out into 2019.

  • James Knowlton Wicklund - MD

  • You okay?

  • David M. Demshur - CEO & Chairman of Supervisory Board

  • You are going to get some -- yes, you get some additional contribution from the FID's and Deepwater and that should push it over 20%.

  • James Knowlton Wicklund - MD

  • Okay, okay. And David, we've heard that some of the FID's that have been awarded end of last year and so far this year, they're being slow rolled just a bit. Are you seeing the schedule, the timing, the execution of the FIDs awarded last year and this year? Are they on the schedule that you expect, at a little bit above, a little bit below? Can you give us some color on how the execution of the recent FIDs are going?

  • David M. Demshur - CEO & Chairman of Supervisory Board

  • I would say, Jim, probably a little bit below our expectations and maybe pushed out a little bit, maybe a quarter, because we thought we would have some contribution -- some more meaningful contribution in the third quarter, and we just don't see that, and we think that, that's been pushed out to the fourth quarter. But as you can see, rigs are certainly being put under contract and investment plans are leading forward.

  • James Knowlton Wicklund - MD

  • Yes, we're just delaying the inevitable, I agree.

  • David M. Demshur - CEO & Chairman of Supervisory Board

  • Correct.

  • James Knowlton Wicklund - MD

  • And David, if I could squeeze one in because those were quick. The deepwater recovery, we're putting a couple of rigs to work, rates -- or different rates, when do you think we get a material move in the deepwater market, what year?

  • David M. Demshur - CEO & Chairman of Supervisory Board

  • I think in 2019 second half, you'll have a material add to deepwater.

  • Operator

  • The next question comes from James West with Evercore ISI.

  • James Carlyle West - Senior MD

  • Dave, so the international recovery here, we've been -- and kind of to Jim's question about slow rolling from FID's, but we've seen some, I guess, pushback of (inaudible) just in your commentary and

  • (technical difficulty)

  • now starting to improve (inaudible)?

  • David M. Demshur - CEO & Chairman of Supervisory Board

  • Yes, Jim there was some -- James, there was some break up on that, but I think we get the juice of your question. If you look year-over-year international rig count was only up 1%. You got to remember that we don't take participation in early moves in international rig count market, because the drilling of the well -- companies that provide those drilling rigs do benefit early on from that revenue flow. We have to drill several wells down to the reservoir level. Cores and fluids have to be taken and then put into our laboratories. So when we see a material move in the international rig count level, that's maybe a quarter or 2 later, we start to see the impact of that revenue into Reservoir Description. Just hasn't happened yet. We thought we would see some of that in Q3. Now we expect some of that in Q4 but a lot more of it in 2019.

  • James Carlyle West - Senior MD

  • Okay, fair enough. And sorry about the bad connection here. Just one last one from me on Permian takeaway constraints, what are your customers telling you about their activity plans for second half '18 and early '19?

  • Lawrence V. Bruno - President & Supervisory Director

  • Yes, James. Larry Bruno, here. So I think it depends very much on the client. Some have -- or rather foresighted and saw this takeaway problem emerging and planned well and some other companies maybe caught a little flat-footed and are having to see the price of the barrel they're able to generate being compromised a bit. So I think there will be -- talked to a client just earlier this week. There will be some reallocation of resources to other regions outside the Permian. And I think that works out for us as our products and services are a bit easier to shift than heavy iron investments. And so I think there'll be some potential tapping at the brakes, a little bit of slowdown for selected clients in the Permian. And I think that'll affect any company that's got exposure to completions.

  • David M. Demshur - CEO & Chairman of Supervisory Board

  • Yes, James, we've already seen an uptick in activity levels for us in the Eagle Ford, the Bakken and in the Haynesville. So some of those investment dollars from the E&P clients are being spread around other basins and due to the mobility of our services and products, we can be there. We don't have to mobilize a frac crew.

  • Operator

  • The next question comes from Sean Meakim with JP Morgan.

  • Sean Christopher Meakim - Senior Equity Research Analyst

  • So I was hoping in Production Enhancement, could we talk about what drove that flatter incremental margin in the second quarter? And then given we're thinking that or acknowledging that completions activity is likely to slow, what gives us the confidence that we're going to reaccelerate back towards that long-term 60% bogey?

  • Lawrence V. Bruno - President & Supervisory Director

  • Yes, I think as we look at our Production Enhancement revenue year-over-year numbers, incremental margins were 51%. U.S. land, we saw services up 17%. We saw products up in a similar area, so we were about on pace with the increase in completions. We do think that if you recall, Sean, about 1/3 of that business is still exposed to international markets, which were flat overall. And we think that we see some of that coming back in the Gulf of Mexico international, a little bit helping out into the third quarter compared to the second quarter. As those filter in, we think that helps us get back to historical incremental margin levels in that segment.

  • David M. Demshur - CEO & Chairman of Supervisory Board

  • Yes, if you just back engineer, as Gwen said, looking at our third quarter guidance mainly coming out of PE, keeping international flat, you get back to somewhere on the order of 60-plus percent incremental margins for Production Enhancement.

  • Sean Christopher Meakim - Senior Equity Research Analyst

  • And just to clarify, you're saying that on a year-over-year basis not quarter-over-quarter?

  • David M. Demshur - CEO & Chairman of Supervisory Board

  • That is correct.

  • Sean Christopher Meakim - Senior Equity Research Analyst

  • Okay, got it. And then just maybe a tackle on some of the discussion around International growth potential next year. Some of the large-cap diversifies have endorsed a growth rate for international CapEx north of 10%. Could you maybe give us your take on whether or not you think that's a good hurdle rate to start? And do you expect offshore activity to outpace or underpace overall international activity next year?

  • David M. Demshur - CEO & Chairman of Supervisory Board

  • Yes, if you remember back, Sean, our original bogey for international CapEx growth for 2018 was somewhere around 5%, 6%, and we looked at the potential for revenue to be up 8 or 9%. That clearly hasn't happened just looking at international activity levels and international rig counts year-over-year. If indeed the international spend next year is up 10%, we would still guide our revenue Reservoir Description up 12% to 14%. Sooner or later, these long-cycle barrels have to enter the picture. And I think we're seeing that as pointed out by the Brent crude pricing curve that has gone in the contango. So these longer-term, longer-cycle barrels are going to become more and more important, as we have production declines and increases in the decline curve worldwide. So we certainly would welcome that. We'll keep our fingers crossed if that does indeed happen.

  • Operator

  • The next question comes from George O'Leary with TPH & Company.

  • George Michael O'Leary - Executive Director of Oil Service Research

  • I thought the color you provided on just mentioning that we could see some activity shift in the U.S. and potential slowdown in the Permian offset by an increase in areas like the Bakken, the Eagle Ford and the Haynesville I think or the basins that you cited. I guess in your discussions with customers in the Permian, are there clear signs that, that throttle back is coming? Or are you not yet hearing that from your customer? I guess any framing on the discussions that you're having with your customers specific to the Permian would be super helpful.

  • Lawrence V. Bruno - President & Supervisory Director

  • Yes, George, it -- I think as I mentioned, it's very company-specific or client-specific here. It's -- some clients are prepared for it and had locked in takeaway capacity. Others are going to have to tap the brakes or deal with the lower commodity prices that they are able to get given the takeaway challenges.

  • George Michael O'Leary - Executive Director of Oil Service Research

  • That's helpful. And then just given you all's presence in the wellbore and the various businesses that you have that are associated with stage and the cluster count, I wonder if you could characterize for us -- and the strong growth you guys put up in your energetic business in particular, if you could characterize the interplay between stage count and cluster count, as some E&Ps seem to be moving towards something like up spacing where they're actually reducing stage count but materially increasing the cluster count within those stages.

  • David M. Demshur - CEO & Chairman of Supervisory Board

  • Yes. That's exactly a trend that we're seeing as well. We had that in our commentary last quarter. We see that even more so now. So additional perf clusters leading to lesser stage count. We actually think that adds to the efficiency of the well and reduces the time to drill, stimulate and complete that well.

  • Lawrence V. Bruno - President & Supervisory Director

  • And George, I'd one comment to that. With the work we've doing on stimulation, completions and in particular the work we've been doing on enhanced oil recovery, the critical issue for our clients is going to be maximizing stimulated rock volume, getting as much rock stimulated as possible, particularly where we've been able to demonstrate for them that there is an EOR opportunity. So they'll be trialing different techniques to get that maximized surface area and stimulated rock volume, because they don't want to be in a position to miss the opportunity to increase their recovery from these reservoirs by a few hundred basis points.

  • David M. Demshur - CEO & Chairman of Supervisory Board

  • Gilly, we're going to go ahead and close. So in summary, Core's operations continue to position the company for activity levels in the third quarter of 2018, and we know significant challenges await.

  • However, we have never been better operationally or technology positioned to help our clients to maintain and expand their existing production base. We remain uniquely focused and are the most technologically advanced reservoir optimization company in the oilfield services sector. This positions Core well for the challenges ahead.

  • The company remains committed to industry-leading levels of free cash generation and returns on invested capital with all capital being returned to shareholders via our dividends and/or future opportunistic share repurchases.

  • So in closing our 92nd quarterly earnings release, we thank all of our shareholders and the analysts that follow Core, and as already noted by Larry Bruno, the executive management and board of Core Laboratories gives a special thanks to our worldwide employees that have made these results possible. We are proud to be associated with our continuing achievements.

  • So thanks for spending time with us this morning, and we look forward to our next update. So goodbye for now.

  • Operator

  • Ladies and gentlemen, the conference has now concluded. Thank you for attending today's presentation. You may now...