Core Laboratories Inc (CLB) 2017 Q4 法說會逐字稿

Good morning, and welcome to the Core Laboratories Q4 2017 Earnings Conference Call. (Operator Instructions) Please note, this event is being recorded.

I would now like to turn the conference over to David Demshur, Chairman and Chief Executive Officer. Please go ahead.

Thanks, Brandon. I'd like to say good morning in North America, good afternoon in Europe and good evening in Asia Pacific. We'd like to welcome all of our shareholders, analysts and most importantly, our employees to Core Laboratories' Fourth Quarter 2017 Earnings Conference Call. This is our 90th quarterly earnings release. This morning, I'm joined by Dick Bergmark, Core's Executive Vice President and CFO; Core's COO, Monty Davis, who will present the detailed operational review; Chris Hill, Core's Chief Accounting Officer; and Gwen Schreffler, Core's Head of IR.

The call will be divided into 5 segments: Gwen will start by making remarks regarding forward-looking comments. Then we'll come back and review the announcements regarding personnel moves at Core and comment on the current macro environment, updating industry trends that should be beneficial to Core. We will then review Core's 3 financial tenets, which the company employs to build long-term shareholder value. Then Chris will follow with a detailed financial overview and additional comments regarding building shareholder value, followed by Gwen commenting on Core's first quarter 2018 outlook and a general industry outlook as it pertains to Core's prospects. Then Monty will come and give a detailed review of Core's 2 operating segments, detailing our progress and discussing the continued successful introduction of new Core Lab technologies and then highlighting some of Core's operations and major projects worldwide. We will then open the lines to a Q&A session.

I'll turn it over to Gwen for remarks regarding forward-looking statements. Gwen?

Before we start the conference call this morning, I'll mention that some of the statements that we make during this call may include projections, estimates and other forward-looking information. This would include any discussion of the company's business outlook. These types of forward-looking statements are subject to a number of risks and uncertainties relating to the oil and gas industry, business conditions, international market, international political climate and other factors, including those discussed in our '34 Act filings that may affect our outcome. Should one or more of these risks or uncertainties materialize or should any of our assumptions prove incorrect, actual results may vary in material respects from those projected in the forward-looking statements.

We undertake no obligation to publicly update or revise any forward-looking statements, whether as a result of new information, future events or otherwise. For a more detailed discussion of the foregoing risk and uncertainties, see Item 1A, Risk Factors, in our annual report on Form 10-K for the fiscal year ended December 31, 2017, as well as other reports and registration statements filed by us with the SEC and the AFM.

Our comments include non-GAAP financial measures, reconciliation to the most directly comparable GAAP financial measures included in the press release announcing our fourth quarter results. Those non-GAAP measures can also be found on our website.

With that said, I'll pass the discussion back to Dave.

Thanks, Gwen. First some comments on personnel moves at Core. We continue to expand and strengthen our executive management team. It gives us great pleasure to announce the promotion of Larry Bruno to President of Core Lab. Larry, a 20-year veteran of Core has been instrumental in creating the waves of new technologies and services that Core has rolled out over the past decade plus. Larry, who many of you have met at energy conference and sponsor of our Houston facility tours, will work beside Monty Davis in guiding worldwide operations. Larry and Gwen will also take more of a leading role in future energy conferences and investor interactions.

It also gives us great pleasure to announce that Chris Hill will become Core's Chief Financial Officer in May 2018, succeeding Dick Bergmark. Many of you also know Chris through investor interaction and energy conferences, and he is well regarded by analysts and investors worldwide. Chris has held various global roles for Core in both finance and accounting, including a 3-year stint in Amsterdam and is a welcome addition to Core's executive team.

Dick Bergmark, the architect of Core's 3 financial tenets, will continue to serve as an Executive Vice President until his retirement at the end of 2018. Under Dick's tutelage, Core has grown from a $38 million management buyout to a company with a market cap now exceeding $5 billion, creating shareholder value every step of the way. As has been stated on numerous occasions, Dick is the best wingman a CEO can ever be blessed with. He's made everybody on the executive management team of Core, especially me, better at their jobs.

Dick's not getting away that quick, though, as you will continue to see him at energy conferences and investor gatherings throughout the rest of 2018.

Core has witnessed and is encouraged by the increasing focus of its major clients regarding capital management, return on invested capital, free cash flow and the return of capital back to their shareholders as opposed to just growing production and destroying capital at any cost. The oil companies adopting these metrics tend to be more technologically sophisticated operators and form the foundation of Core's worldwide client base. Core will benefit from this shift in focus from a pure production growth to employing higher technology solutions, such as EOR methods in unconventional reservoirs or employing Core's exclusive HEROPerFRAC energistic systems.

These companies will drill fewer wells, but they will be better wells. The uptick in demand for these technologies is considered in the company's continued long-term increases in already industry-leading operating margins and expanding incremental margins. Clients will pay for these technologies that boost their return on invested capital and free cash flow as opposed to commoditized services, such as wireline, seismic and pressure pumping.

Core will remain a technologically driven oilfield service meritocracy that will continue to grow and expand our service and product offerings. One other trend that is beneficial to Core is the successful return to deepwater exploration and exploitation of reserves, with the recently announced Chevron, Total Ballymore discovery in Mississippi Canyon, which cut 670 feet of net pay; and Shell's potentially giant discovery in Alaminos Canyon cutting over 1,600 feet of net pay. This prospect was appropriately named the well -- the Whale prospect. Core will benefit from increased activity in the offshore and deepwater activities throughout and into 2018 and '19.

Now for a review of Core's 3 financial tenets, which we've used to build shareholder value over the 22-plus-year history of being a publicly traded company. During the fourth quarter of 2017, Core generated over $41 million in free cash flow and converted 24% of every revenue dollar into free cash, the highest in all oilfield service companies. Free cash is important to Core Lab shareholders. Once again, Core produced industry-leading return on invested capital for the 33rd consecutive quarter. A high return on invested capital is important for Core Lab investors.

Also during the fourth quarter of 2017, Core returned over $33 million back to our shareholders via our quarterly dividend and shareholder -- and share repurchases. Core will continue to return all excess capital back to our shareholders in future quarters via these quarterly dividends and share repurchases. As one analyst aptly put, Core's application -- continued application of our 3 financial tenets, washed, rinsed and repeat.

I will now turn it back over to Chris for a detailed financial review. Chris?

Thanks, David. Before I provide the financial update, I would like to say that I feel very honored to assume the CFO role for Core Lab as Dick's successor. It has been a privilege working with Dick and I'm grateful for the development and support from Dick, David Demshur, Monty Davis and the company over the last 10-plus years. As Dave mentioned, in my Investor Relations role, I have met or spoken with many of you participating on the call through investor conferences or visits and tours at our facility, and I look forward to continuing those relationships in the future.

Now looking at the income statement. Revenue was $172 million in the fourth quarter, up almost 15% from the fourth quarter last year and up 3.4% sequentially. Both Production Enhancement and Reservoir Description contributed nicely to the improvements this quarter. For the full year, revenue was $660 million, so up about 11% over 2016. Of this revenue, service revenue, which is more international, was $126 million for the quarter, up 9% year-over-year and up 7% sequentially. The growth in this quarter is primarily attributable to the continued strengthening of our well completion diagnostic services in the U.S. market.

Product sales, which are more tied to North American activity were $46 million for the quarter and up 34% year-over-year. Our product sales in the U.S. grew over 60% compared to 2016 and at a faster pace than the 49% growth in 2017 for completion activity as published by the EIA.

Moving on to cost of services for the quarter are 69% of service revenue, an improvement from the third quarter and in line with earlier quarters. For the full year, cost of services averaged 69%, a slight improvement over 2016 as our service operating margins continue to be some of the strongest amongst oilfield service companies. Cost of sales in the fourth quarter was 77% of revenue, in line with last quarter, but an improvement from last year as our operating leverage and the absorption of our fixed cost improved with higher levels of revenue this year.

G&A for the quarter was $12 million consistent with the last few quarters and came in a little under $48 million for the full year. For 2018, we expect G&A to be around $48 million to $50 million. Depreciation and amortization for the quarter was $6.1 million, which is comparable to the last several quarters. For the full year 2017, depreciation and amortization expense was $24.9 million, so down from $26.9 million in prior year.

Looking forward to next year, we would expect capital expenditures and associated depreciation expense to be similar. The guidance we gave on our last call and past calls, specifically excluded the impacts of any FX gains or losses and assumed an effective tax rate of 15% for the fourth quarter. So accordingly, our discussion today excludes any foreign exchange gain or loss for current and prior periods as -- and is adjusted to the guided tax rate of 15%.

So to conform to our guidance, EBIT, ex-items for the quarter, was $32.7 million, up over 50% from fourth quarter last year and up 19% sequentially, and continues to represent best-in-class EBIT margin of 19%. Full year 2017 EBIT, ex-items, was $114.5 million, up over 30% from 2016 and also generated industry-leading margins of over 17% for the full year.

On income tax. Our effective tax rate guidance for the fourth quarter was 15%, creating an income tax expense of $4.5 million for the fourth quarter. Our GAAP effective tax rate for the fourth quarter was 27%, which reflects our initial assessment of the U.S. Tax Cuts and Jobs Act and the impact as a result of revaluing our net deferred tax asset position in the U.S. to the new corporate tax rate of 21%. GAAP income tax was $18.6 million for the year at an effective tax rate of 18.3%.

Based on our current analysis of U.S. tax reform, we expect the changes to be beneficial for our U.S. operations. And our effective tax rate in Q1 of 2018 is expected to be approximately 15%. Net income, ex-items for the quarter, was $25.6 million, up 40% from fourth quarter 2016 and up 21% from the $21.1 million last quarter.

For the full year 2017, ex-items, net income was $88.5 million, up over 30% from 2016. GAAP net income was $21.7 million for the fourth quarter and $83.1 million for the year. Earnings per diluted share, ex-items, was $0.58 for the quarter, up 41% year-over-year and in line with our prior guidance; while EPS for the full year, ex-items, was $2.00. GAAP EPS for the fourth quarter was $0.49 and $1.88 for the full year.

As we move on to the balance sheet, I'm only going to highlight the items that have materially changed from previously reported balances. Receivables stood at $133.1 million, up slightly from Q3, but in line with the growth in our revenue as our DSOs continue to be strong at 67 days for the quarter and 69 days for the full year 2017. Inventory finished the year at $33.3 million, down 3% or $3.4 million sequentially and down over 11% from its peak earlier this year. We're very pleased with our operation's improvement of inventory turns throughout 2017, and we anticipate inventory turns will continue to improve into 2018.

And now on to the liabilities side of the balance sheet. Our accounts payable were $41.7 million, up $8 million sequentially, which is associated with the growth of our business. Other current liabilities of $63.3 million are up $5.1 million from last quarter due to an increase in unearned revenue and accrued employee compensation. Our long-term debt at year-end was $228 million, down from $235 million last quarter end as we used some of our excess free cash flow to reduce debt this quarter. Our debt is comprised of our senior notes at $150 million as well as $78 million under our bank revolving credit facility. Shareholders' equity ended the year at $148.7 million, down slightly from prior year-end balance of $155.3 million, primarily due to the return of capital to shareholders.

Capital expenditures for the quarter were $4.5 million comparable to prior quarter and in line with operational activities. For the full year, they were $18.8 million, up from $11.4 million in 2016. The company anticipates that its capital expenditure program will continue to expand in 2018, in line with the increases in business activity, possibly reaching the $25 million level. And as we have previously stated, Core has the financial ability to increase its capital investments in support of these strengthening activities.

Looking at cash flow. In the fourth quarter, cash flow from operating activities was $45.9 million. And after paying for our $4.5 million in CapEx, our free cash flow in Q4 was $41.4 million, which represents over 160% of net income, ex-items. For the full year 2017, cash flow from operating activities was $124.3 million, while free cash flow after paying for our CapEx program was $105.5 million. Our free cash flow conversion ratio, which is free cash flow divided by net income continues to be one of the highest in the industry at almost 127% for 2017.

We believe this is an important metric for shareholders when comparing companies' financial results, particularly for those who utilize discounted cash flow models to assess valuation. In 2017, our free cash flow was higher than our net income, as it has been in 12 of the last 16 years.

I will now turn it over to Gwen for an update on our guidance and outlook.

Thank you, Chris. We believe first quarter 2018 international E&P activity levels will be flat from the preceding fourth quarter levels with most ongoing international development projects to be funded largely from the operating budgets. We expect the average first quarter 2018 U.S. rig counts to be similar to the fourth quarter of 2017 levels with completion activity to continue at the current improving pace. Therefore, we do not see a change in our typical seasonal pattern of Q1 revenue in earnings being sequentially flat to slightly lower than the preceding Q4 level, as has been the case in 5 of the last 7 years and similar to Q1 guidance recently provided by other major international oilfield service companies.

As a result of this typical seasonal pattern, we project first quarter 2018 revenue of approximately $168 million to $172 million and operating income of approximately $32 million to $32.7 million, yielding operating margins of approximately 19%. EPS for the first quarter 2018 is expected to be approximately $0.56 to $0.58. The first quarter midpoint guidance represents a year-over-year improvement in revenue by 8%, operating income by 33% and EPS by 36%. This initial first quarter 2018 guidance includes gains and losses in foreign exchange and assumes an effective tax rate of 15%.

First quarter 2018 free cash flow is expected to exceed net income and we expect we will continue to return all excess capital to our shareholders during the quarter via dividends and continuing our share repurchases.

Several consecutive years of significant international underinvestment will lead to steepening legacy declines in non-North American, non-Middle East and non-former Soviet Union crude oil production levels. So we have an optimistic view for 2018's industry activity and the company's financial performance for the following reason: Crude oil industry fundamentals continue to improve with falling global crude oil inventories, a tightening in the number of days of consumption held in global crude oil inventory to meet demand, and the impact of these fundamentals may have on increasing the price of crude oil.

We are also encouraged by the increased focus major clients have regarding capital management, return on invested capital, free cash flow and returning capital back to their shareholders as opposed to just production growth at any cost. The companies adopting these metrics tend to be the more technologically sophisticated operators and form the foundation of Core's worldwide client base. International and offshore markets are in the early stages of recovery, which will benefit the company's leverage to both markets, especially in the second half of 2018.

Additionally, as part of the industry's recovery, there has been positive actions taken by oil companies to reinvest in the development of new crude oil projects. The reinvestment at a global level is critical in order to meet future supply needs. The oil companies' ability to reinvest is due to their successful efforts in increasing their EURs along with reducing capital project cost to align with today's oil price per barrel. This is enabling clients to make final investment decisions on new projects and/or revamp previously announced projects. Recent project announcements include Exxon's Liza field offshore Guyana, Shell's Appomattox field, LLOG's Buckskin development in deepwater Gulf of Mexico and Chevron's Tengiz field in Kazakhstan among others.

And with that guidance, we'll turn the call over to Monty for an operational review.

Thanks, Gwen. Core Lab employees around the world have made great strides in 2017 to help our clients reach their goals through new Core Lab technologies and excellent service. We thank all of our employees for their contributions to innovative solutions, integrity and superior services.

Reservoir Description continued expansion of Core Lab's digital rock characterization, DRC, services in Q4 with comprehensive offerings now available to clients in Kuwait and Alaska. After a successful introduction of these services was made with enthusiastic client acceptance in the U.S., South America, Asia Pacific, Canada and Abu Dhabi, the addition of this widely beneficial technology in these 2 new markets will boost clients' confidence in reservoir quality assessment and completion designs.

Computed tomography, CT scans generate millimeter scale image and petrophysical logs on cored intervals by calibrating CT information against vast amounts of measured core data available in Core Lab's proprietary database of physical measurements. The CT log provides extremely detailed and accurate information on properties, such as lithology, porosity, density and rock strength along with full 3-dimensional visualization of the core. The relevance and benefits of Core's proprietary CT technology have been proven in both conventional and unconventional reservoirs.

This quick delivery of 3 dimensional image-based Reservoir Description will help clients in the Alaska region with critical time-sensitive decisions by allowing them to quickly select representative and mechanically competent samples for advanced rock properties testing on their high-quality sandstone reservoirs. On complex reservoirs in Kuwait, this technology will help Core's clients with conventional core analysis programs, along with digitally based hydrocarbon volumetric estimation and flow characterization when combined with Core's micro-tomography analysis.

These new service offerings also create opportunities for Core's clients to re-examine archived cores with this high-resolution digital technology and compare observations and interpretations to production data from existing wells.

In the fourth quarter, Core's Canadian operation started a long term core and fluid analysis contract for a large ILC operating along the north Atlantic margin. Core received produced fluid samples that were analyzed in its PVT laboratory to determine the phased behavior relationships of the hydrocarbons. These PVT samples and test results will assist the operator in optimizing flow regimes, allowing for maximum hydrocarbon recovery over the life of the reservoir. This work is part of a comprehensive ongoing rock and fluid analytical program that will extend into 2018.

Our DRC technology in Calgary was a key deliverable for this project. The results of this work will be utilized by the client to understand lateral and vertical heterogeneities in the reservoir, build a more detailed reservoir model, predict reservoir performance over time and maximize shareholder return. In addition to this large long-term onshore project, the number of land-based Canadian PVT studies from Western Canadian sedimentary basins increased in the fourth quarter.

Operators in tight unconventional volatile oil and gas condensate plays, such as the Montney and the Duvernay shale formations are showing increased demand for phase behavior and compositional analysis of these complex reservoirs.

Production Enhancements' clients continue to leverage Core's SpectraStim and SpectraScan technologies in conjunction with Core's regional engineering advisers to expedite improvements to cluster -- perforation cluster efficiency. A common trend among -- beginning to emerge among U.S. operators is identifying ways to maintain or enhance cluster efficiency, while further optimizing the completion design. Optimization changes, such as the implementation of high density clusters with the reduction of stage counts, can provide significant savings to operating costs, but in some formations may reduce EUR. Core Lab's diagnostic services provide our clients with guidance to optimize operating costs, while improving EURs.

Recently, a Core Lab client said, "without Core's diagnostics and engineering team providing direct measurement and guidance, we would have had to go through several more iterations to get to an optimal completions design. We likely would have had to drill and complete 10 to 20 or more wells with various designs before settling on what likely -- would likely be a suboptimal design if we solely relied on production results to guide our decisions."

SpectraStim proppant tracers and SpectraScan spectral gamma ray imaging service together provide the only means of precisely determining how effective all clusters are stimulated. Combined with the FLOWPROFILER to quantify individual stage contribution, the need to drill and complete several wells, then wait on production analysis for results before continuing to optimize is eliminated. Core's clients are benefiting by lowering operating costs and improving EURs, both improving their overall cost per barrel and profits.

Core Lab's Production Enhancement team continues to see significant growth in our perforating systems that are proving value for our clients in their pursuit of production optimization. By maximizing Stimulated Reservoir Volume, Core Lab's best-in-class HEROPerFRAC system revenues were up 30% in Q4 versus Q3 and up 10x when compared to 2016. Our equal hole size perforating technology provides the industry's most consistent hole size around the wellbore, facilitating frac designs. This allows operators to optimize hydraulic pump rates for maximum proppant placement. The resulting completion increases Stimulated Reservoir Volume and our customers' return on invested capital.

Our HTD-BLAST technology experienced significant usage in 2017, with quarterly increases throughout 2017 as operators relied on this proven technology to complete the difficult toe stage of their horizontal wells. By using HTD-BLAST, operators confidently completed the toe stage, eliminating expensive downtime caused by failed sleeve systems. Greater wellsite efficiency provided by HTD-BLAST reduces our customers' expense and increases their profitability.

In the multi-billion dollar plug and abandonment market, Core's industry-leading plug and abandonment PAC perforating systems are experiencing significant global growth by providing cost-effective customer solutions for well abandonments. Plug and abandonment operating expenses can be a drain on customer cash flow if performed on a rig with expensive section milling.

Throughout 2017, Core's broad offering of PAC systems for multiple combination of casing strings were utilized by operators in the Gulf of Mexico, North Sea, Australia, Africa and Thailand, to name a few. In Q4, our ballistics engineers provided a unique solution for a customer needing to perforate 3 production strings without penetrating the outer casing. Our PAC solution allowed our customer to provide circumferential cement plugging required by local regulations for permanent isolation of the depleted reservoir from possible exposure to the surface, while saving millions of dollars.

Brandon, we'll now open the call for questions.

(Operator Instructions) Our first question comes from Sean Meakim with JPMorgan.

Dick, congrats on the retirement, honestly, well-deserved.

Thanks, Sean. It's been a great place to hang out for the last 30 years.

Sean, he's not getting away that quick. He'll be here for another 11 months.

And just first from a little bit of a higher level thinking about your customers, we have seen service costs move higher in shale last year; that's going to happen again this year. And breakevens offshore are continuing to decline. Some of the majors you've talked about, you have some pretty attractive, at least maybe half cycle economics on some of the projects, particularly when they tie in some infrastructure. Just when you think about where even long-dated Brent has gone recently, just do you -- how do you anticipate any shift in customer behavior? We haven't seen much in the way of incremental additions to CapEx budgets for the majors, but perhaps changing the ranking of their capital budgets given some of the shifts in relative cost in shale versus offshore?

Yes, like the comments that we've made, Sean, we believe that our client base, which is more technologically sophisticated, are planning to drill fewer wells, but better wells. And we found the uptakes on the new technology that we've been offering, HEROPerFRAC is a good example of that; it is the most rapid uptake in new technology that the company has offered over the last decade or so. We think that will continue. So their wells actually will become more expensive. But the uptake on the amount of production and reserve base will far outweigh what the incremental costs are to employ some of this new technology.

With respect to offshore, you are correct. The cost curve continues to go down and they continue to drill better and more high-profile wells. A great example of that is the Shell discovery in Alaminos Canyon, the Whale prospect cutting over 1,600 feet of net pay. So we think that positions Core well from a introduction of new technology front that will be utilized by people that are more -- that are going to pay more attention to returns, free cash flow and returning some of that back, as well as the operators looking for a balanced portfolio and going back and looking at some of the offshore and offshore deepwater plays. So we like that balance and how it's going to work out going into 2018 and then into '19.

And then thinking about how the rest of the year kind of (inaudible) taking into consideration your guidance, the seasonality, I think, is well appreciated for the first quarter. But then looking out to the rest of the year, I think that when we were spending time together in the fall, we talked about a $50 to $55 Brent world would be enough to see FIDs continue to improve year-over-year with current spot rates -- spot prices well above that. How that -- how do you think about the flex to the upside as we move through the year with respect to FIDs, and ultimately, how that will start to eventually leak its way into your P&L?

Sean, we had 20 FIDs in 2017. And recently, a report that came out from Wood Mackenzie is projecting another 25 in 2018. So we're very hopeful about the progress and reinvestment in these types of developments, offshore and deepwater, and the long-term potential impact that that will have in the second half of 2018 to our financials.

Our next question comes from Byron Pope with Tudor, Pickering, Holt.

Just have one question that relates to Production Enhancement, and I'll preface it by saying that I think there is some truth to the saying that imitation is the most sincere form of flattery. Because it seems like there have been a couple of M&A transactions with folks trying to get into the tracers and perforating systems businesses and -- where you guys are established market leaders. But as I think about the 50% top line growth that Production Enhancement did in 2017, would it be fair to think that Owen and ProTechnics drove that growth? And then how should we think about the cadence of top line growth for that business in 2018 where you've still got some decidedly strong tailwinds behind you?

Yes, Byron, good question on that. We continue to expand our product lines both in tracer technology, where we are actually evaluating some new technology right now that we think can have a significant impact throughout 2018; more on that in upcoming conference calls. And then the continued expansion of the acceptance of new perforating or energetic systems, that being led by the HEROPerFRAC, we think we've got additional gains to make there from a technological standpoint. So we still like the strong gain in revenue potential there, expanding incrementals in growing margins.

I'd like to say thanks for the use of the wash, rinse and repeat. I thought that was a very clever line in your note this morning.

Our next question comes from Chase Mulvehill with Wolfe Research.

Dick, you'll be missed. I know you -- the rest of the year you'll be there, but you'll definitely be missed. And congrats, Chris and Larry on the promotions. I guess, first, I want to hit on Reservoir Description margins. They came in a little bit light in the fourth quarter. So I guess, maybe talk to -- if there's kind of any one-offs in the fourth quarter that impacted? And then maybe talk about the path forward for Reservoir Description margins in 1Q. I know you typically have some seasonality there. But then once we get through 1Q 2018 with potentially FIDs growing throughout 2018.

So, Chase, with regard to the fourth quarter and the 17% margins, that really has to do with timing of completion of projects, so primarily about service mix. And then related to our Q1 guidance, the assumptions in the Q1 guidance are related to weather in parts of Europe. And then the oil companies finalizing their capital spending budgets for the year: so that typically finishes in Q1, and then they go about spending those budgets in the rest of the year.

Yes, and if you look at the way that internally we're looking at Reservoir Description, we believe that we do indeed exit 2018 with a 2 in front of their margins, owing to revenue sources from FIDs and additional deepwater projects that are -- really kind of juice some of those margins.

Okay, that's very helpful. If we can kind of go to the top line for Reservoir Description and we think about kind of 2018 overall, I don't know if you have enough visibility yet to maybe frame kind of how we should be thinking about top line growth for Reservoir Description for 2018?

Yes, the crystal ball's still a little cloudy, but right now applying our 200 to 400 basis points on outperformance, it probably gets you into the mid to higher single digits, the way we're looking at that right now.

Okay. And that's for Reservoir Description, correct?

Correct.

Our next question comes from Stephen Gengaro with Loop Capital Markets.

So 2 things. I'd just start with -- if you look at the guidance that you gave for 1Q, if my math is right, it suggests about 65% company-wide incrementals on a year-over-year basis. Is that a level you think is sustainable throughout '18?

Correct. You just look back, Stephen, as we talked about, if you look at company performance in '10, '11, '12 and '13, just look at the history of those incrementals, and you'll see that incrementals with a 6 in front of it last well into the recovery. And from a U.S. standpoint, yes, okay, we're well into the recovery. International, probably not just yet. Outside the Middle East, we're not seeing a lot of project gains in Q1; some in Q2, but really getting a much higher level of input from those projects in 2H '18.

Okay. And then as we think about the Production Enhancement business going forward, and you sort of think about -- and someone mentioned earlier some of the competitors out there. Is there anything in the competitive landscape that alters your revenue growth assumptions for that business going forward?

No, it's certainly a technology race. And certainly, our engineers on the ballistic side are the most skilled in the industry, which gives us great comfort that we'll be putting out new technologies later this year, adding to their HEROPerFRAC. And the same thing when you look at our diagnostics business, these guys invented and have advanced that business. They are the best in the business. And they're looking at some very clever uses of that technology and different forms of that technologies right now. So no reason why we should have any impairment for the continued growth of Production Enhancement.

Our next question comes from Marc Bianchi with Cowen.

I guess, first, on the succession planning. And first, Dick and Dave congrats on everything you have accomplished. The story has been truly remarkable to watch over the years. Dave, what's your timeline here? With this change you're taking a step in that direction. Is the thought to maybe get to 100 quarterly reports and that's the time? Or just maybe set some expectations for us, if you could?

Yes, I would say several more years, that would not be a bad goal to do 100 quarterly reports. So the way I would answer that, Marc, is you guys are going to have to put up with me for several more years.

Looking forward to it. I guess, then if we think about the Reservoir Description commentary that you just offered in terms of the high single-digit growth. If I think of the offshore component of that business and all these FIDs opportunities, is it really everything else in the business stays flat and the increment the growth is coming from those FIDs? Is that a fair way to think about it, or there are some other considerations we should have?

No, that's the way I would think about it, because the incremental is going to come from that. Maybe outside of the Middle East, because we are seeing a lot of interest in the Middle East to -- for them to be able to maintain or expand production. So outside the Middle East, the incrementals will come from the FIDs that Gwen has talked about and those that are in the queue that are going to be announced early in 2018.

Our next question comes from Scott Gruber with Citigroup.

First, Dick, it's been a pleasure working with you and I'm sure I'll see you at some point, but all the best in the future. And Larry and Chris, again, congrats on the promos.

Dave, I want to turn back to the impact of the majors sanctioning projects here with more vigor and some impressive recent offshore finds. We've discussed in the past, but I think it would be helpful if you touch on, again, the opportunity for Core with regard to the majors scaling back some of their capabilities within core and fluid analysis during the downturn and how that impacts the growth potential in Reservoir Description?

Yes, interesting question, Scott. I like that you've gone there. We have had less competition over the last several years because we have found that the downsizing of facilities with our major competitors, those being the major oil companies, we've actually had Conoco drop their technical support center. So we've hired personnel from there, and so that is one less competitor that is out there. We think more of their business accretes to us across the board. And with the downsizing of other facilities, we think the outsourcing only gets better.

And that partially underlies your confidence to continue to grow at a couple hundred basis points above the market growth rate?

Yes, correct. And then the addition of new services as well; pile that on top, and you get a couple to 400 basis points of additional growth.

Got it. And maybe if you could -- is there an update on the EOR field test within shale and whether you're seeing good containment of the cycled gas within the reservoirs you're testing?

We do have Larry Bruno that happens to be in the room, and he is our architect of the EOR in unconventionals. And he can give you an update. We have not gone to a field test of yet, but he can give you an update on what we're seeing in the behavior of these in the laboratory.

Larry?

Yes. Thanks, Dave. Scott, yes, we've continued as we have for the last number of quarters to engage many of our clients in laboratory testing of the rocks and fluids in question in these unconventional reservoirs. And so over the course of doing these types of tests, we've started out with an understanding that we'll see these reservoirs produce, on average, 8%, 9%, 10% of the oil in place. And in the laboratory, we've been able to demonstrate, through a thorough understanding of the fluids and the behavior in the rocks, that we can get that into the middle teens. So there's a nice incremental uplift on what they can accomplish in the laboratory.

Now they will take that to the field applications and some are in the early stages of doing that. They'll apply what we've identified in the laboratory as the optimum recipe of gases and they'll go through an injection process and see if we can get the returns in the field.

But you're right, Scott. You make a good point on the containment of these absorbing gases is going to be critical to the success of the field test.

Got you. And just to be clear, are there field studies on the calendar for '18?

Yes, we expect our clients to be expanding their activities and applying these in the field during '18.

Our next question comes from Igor Levi with Morgan Stanley.

So historically, you talked about this 20% market share number for core analysis. And now with FIDs coming back, you just mentioned that some of your competitors are downsizing facilities. I mean, has that figure increased to the mid-20s or 30% range? Or is -- what's the expectation?

Yes, I would say, Igor, probably mid-20s. All in all, we have been fortunate to get -- to gain some big projects that are normally run in-house. The Exxon Liza is a great example of that, deepwater discoveries off of Guyana. And the -- in looking at the other competitors downsizing, yes, we would say that from the IOCs, which are our major competitors, we're probably somewhere -- probably in the low 20s for market share because they still do a lot of their work in-house.

Great, that's very helpful. And last time we spoke, I remember you were making proposals for a joint industry project in the Wolfcamp. Has there been any traction there?

Yes, we've got it in front of our clients. We've got some verbal commitments on that, and you'll be hearing more about that in the coming quarters.

Our next question comes from Kurt Hallead with RBC.

I want to echo everybody else's comments on all the changes there internally. And congrats again on yet a very consistent performance. So well done, and well done to the team.

Thanks, Kurt.

Thanks, Kurt.

So Dick, I want to get just a little color, and if I missed it a little bit earlier, I will apologize to everybody else on the call here. But with respect to the outlook on the rig count progression into the first quarter, the rig count already is running at a level that is in excess of the fourth quarter, which would effectively infer on the comments you guys provided that there's an expectation that the rig count is going to go lower from this point through the end of March. So was hoping to just get a little bit more feel for how you guys are looking at rig-related activity here in U.S.?

Kurt, we were looking at averages rather than endpoint dates at the end of each quarter. So yes, I agree with you; it certainly has picked up. We do agree with you that it has picked up in 2018. So our thought is, given the average of fourth quarter, what we're seeing so far flat, maybe up a little bit.

Okay, great. And then, the follow-up commentary: obviously, your Production Enhancement business is driven more directly by frac and stage counts and completion activity. You guys provided some general comments on completion activity continuing at pace. Could you kind of benchmark that for us in terms of percentages? And what you think completion activity could be up based on your perspective in the first quarter?

Kurt, we're thinking completion activity will be up higher in 2018 owing to some of these DUCs are going to be drawn down. We've talked to a number of operators and they plan on their drilling program, but they want to take out their backlogs from their DUCs. So we're going to have some tailwinds due to increased DUC completions. Right now, we've got about 7,300 out there. So we'll look for that DUC population to also drop. So net-net, higher completion levels, more stages, closer clusters, all that's good for us.

Any -- you want to tease us with a percentage change, do you think, on year-on-year?

Gwen?

Okay. For completions?

Yes, please. Yes.

Well, completions were up 49% year-over-year 2017. So maybe it is slightly higher than that, Kurt.

So more equipment is available?

Yes, there will be more frac spreads out. So hard to pinpoint that, Kurt, but probably some upside there. All right. And Brandon, we'll take one additional question.

Our last question comes from Gregory Lewis with Crédit Suisse.

Chris and Larry, congratulations. Dick, sad to see you go, man, but good luck and have fun. I guess, on the Production Enhancement business mix, specifically on products, I guess I have 2 questions. One is, we've seen a shift, it looks like, to customers willing to pay up for better products over the last couple quarters. Will that still be a tailwind as we think -- tailwind to margins as we think about 2018? Or have customers kind of already accepted the new technologies and we're kind of on a steady run rate from here?

No, we're still going to roll them out. I would say that our market penetration is not satisfactory. Now our technologically sophisticated clients, they go for it straightaway. We've got the other clients that are more middle of the road, that once they see these proof statements coming out of the technologically sophisticated company, they usually join that march to using higher technology as well. So I still think we've got some push on incrementals coming from just further uptake on technologies like HEROPerFRAC.

Okay. And then just sticking on this real quick. It seemed like over the last couple months, I mean, as quickly as stuff was being produced, it was flying off the shelves. Has there been any catch-up in terms of from what you're seeing from, at least from Core Lab side in those products? Or is it still something where the -- kind of the market's overall short on plug and perf solutions and we could still see some shortage which maybe could drive some pricing?

Greg, this is Monty. We are well into a process, I'll call it, because it's a ongoing process to increase production in the perforating arena. We have several initiatives underway there, and we do expect to increase our ability to supply that market.

It's going to be more apparent in the second half, but it's going to be significant.

So in summary, Core's operations continue to position the company for activity levels in the first quarter of 2018, and we know challenges await. However, we have never been better operationally or technologically positioned to help our clients to maintain and expand their existing production base. We remain uniquely focused and are the most technologically advanced reservoir optimization company in the oilfield services sector. This positions Core well for the challenges ahead.

The company remains committed to industry-leading levels of free cash generation and returns on invested capital, with this capital being returned to our shareholders via dividends and future opportunistic share repurchases.

So in closing our 90th quarterly earnings release, we wish to thank all of our shareholders, the analysts that follow Core, and especially, as already mentioned by Monty Davis, our worldwide employees that have made these results possible. We are proud to be associated with their continuing achievements. So thanks for spending time with us this morning. And we look back -- we look forward to our next update. Goodbye for now.

The conference is now concluded. Thank you for attending today's presentation. You may now disconnect.