高露潔 (CL) 2022 Q1 法說會逐字稿

Good day, and welcome to today's Colgate-Palmolive Company First Quarter 2022 Earnings Conference Call. This call is being recorded and is being simulcast live at www.colgatepalmolive.com.

美好的一天，歡迎參加今天的高露潔棕欖公司 2022 年第一季度收益電話會議。該電話正在錄音，並在 www.colgatepalmolive.com 上同時直播。

Now for opening remarks, I would like to turn the call over to Chief Investor Relations Officer, John Faucher. Please go ahead, John.

現在開始致辭，我想將電話轉給首席投資者關係官約翰·福徹。請繼續，約翰。

Thanks, Cristina. Good morning, and welcome to our 2022 first quarter earnings release conference call. This is John Faucher. Today's conference call will include forward-looking statements. Actual results could differ materially from these statements. Please refer to the earnings press release and our most recent filings with the SEC, including our 2021 annual report on Form 10-K and subsequent SEC filings, all available on Colgate's website, for a discussion of the factors that could cause actual results to differ materially from these statements.

謝謝，克里斯蒂娜。早上好，歡迎參加我們的 2022 年第一季度財報電話會議。這是約翰·福徹。今天的電話會議將包括前瞻性陳述。實際結果可能與這些陳述大不相同。請參閱財報新聞稿和我們最近向美國證券交易委員會提交的文件，包括我們關於 10-K 表格的 2021 年年度報告和隨後向美國證券交易委員會提交的文件，所有這些都可在高露潔的網站上找到，以討論可能導致實際結果不同的因素實質上來自這些陳述。

This conference call will also include a discussion of non-GAAP financial measures, including those identified in Tables 5 and 6 of the earnings press release. A full reconciliation to the corresponding GAAP financial measures is included in the earnings press release and is available on Colgate's website. Joining me on the call this morning are Noel Wallace, Chairman, President and Chief Executive Officer; and Stan Sutula, Chief Financial Officer. Noel will provide you with his thoughts on our Q1 results and our 2022 outlook. We will then open it up for Q&A. Noel?

本次電話會議還將討論非 GAAP 財務指標，包括收益新聞稿表 5 和表 6 中確定的指標。收益新聞稿中包含與相應 GAAP 財務指標的完全對賬，可在高露潔網站上查閱。今天早上和我一起參加電話會議的還有董事長、總裁兼首席執行官 Noel Wallace；和首席財務官斯坦·蘇圖拉。 Noel 將為您提供他對我們第一季度業績和 2022 年展望的看法。然後我們將打開它進行問答。諾埃爾?

Thanks, John, and good morning to all of you. Given the release of the prepared commentary earlier this morning, I'll keep my remarks fairly short as I'm certain you have a number of questions.

謝謝，約翰，大家早上好。鑑於今天早上早些時候發布了準備好的評論，我將保持我的發言相當簡短，因為我確信你有很多問題。

Obviously, 2022 is shaping up as a more difficult year than we anticipated with greater-than-expected increases in raw materials as you've seen from others, particularly fats and oils and logistics. This is offsetting what we think will be a very solid year for organic sales growth now that we are seeing our global supply chain stabilize following COVID-related lockdowns and stress in logistic networks around the world. (technical difficulty) sales growth for the balance of the year. First off, we knew that Q1 would be the most difficult quarter given comparisons, supply chain issues and pricing negotiations. We exited the quarter with high single-digit pricing as we took more pricing in developed markets starting in February and continuing into April.

顯然，2022 年將成為比我們預期更困難的一年，正如你從其他人那裡看到的，原材料的增長超出預期，尤其是油脂和物流。這抵消了我們認為有機銷售增長將非常穩固的一年，因為我們看到我們的全球供應鏈在與 COVID 相關的封鎖和全球物流網絡的壓力之後趨於穩定。 （技術難度）年結餘銷售額增長。首先，考慮到比較、供應鏈問題和定價談判，我們知道第一季度將是最困難的季度。我們以高個位數定價退出本季度，因為我們從 2 月開始在發達市場採取更多定價並持續到 4 月。

We believe this is more indicative of the pricing we will see for the balance of the year. Elasticity seemed to be either in line or better than expectations, and this should help limit incremental volume weakness from the higher pricing over the balance of the year. Encouragingly, as we said in our prepared remarks, volume and organic sales performance improved in February and March versus January and organic sales growth has continued to accelerate in April.

我們認為這更能說明我們將在今年餘下時間看到的定價。彈性似乎符合或好於預期，這應該有助於限制今年餘下時間價格上漲導致的增量疲軟。令人鼓舞的是，正如我們在準備好的評論中所說，與 1 月相比，2 月和 3 月的銷量和有機銷售業績有所改善，4 月有機銷售增長繼續加速。

Importantly, we are beginning to see the benefits of the stabilization in our global supply chain network with the impacts of COVID-related factory closures behind us and the opening of the global logistic capacities. Our guidance does not assume further COVID-related lockdowns in the balance of the year that would impact our ability to manufacture and distribute our products.

重要的是，我們開始看到穩定全球供應鍊網絡的好處，以及與 COVID 相關的工廠關閉和全球物流能力開放的影響。我們的指導並未假設在今年餘下時間會出現進一步的與 COVID 相關的封鎖，這會影響我們製造和分銷我們產品的能力。

Our U.S. on-shelf availability for toothpaste has been below normal for several months, as we dealt with the same supply chain challenges you've heard about from other companies. By tapping into our global supply chain, we were able to restore shipments and our availability is now back to normal levels, which you are seeing reflected in better market share performance in toothpaste. And with the improved share performance in manual toothbrushes in the U.S., where our share is up 4.5 points year-to-date, we feel better about the trajectory of U.S. oral care.

幾個月來，我們在美國的牙膏貨架供應量一直低於正常水平，因為我們處理了您從其他公司那裡聽到的同樣的供應鏈挑戰。通過利用我們的全球供應鏈，我們能夠恢復出貨量，我們的供應量現在恢復到正常水平，這反映在牙膏市場份額的提高上。隨著美國手動牙刷的份額表現有所改善，今年以來我們的份額增長了 4.5 個百分點，我們對美國口腔護理的發展軌跡感到更好。

Combined with increased advertising through the balance of the year, significant innovation, particularly around whitening in the U.S. and in Asia and the relaunch of 2 important core brands, our Hawley & Hazel brand in China and the Hill's Prescription Diet business, we feel confident in our forecast for an acceleration in organic sales growth for the balance of the year, this gets us to our new guidance of 4% to 6% organic sales growth.

結合今年餘下時間增加的廣告、重大創新，尤其是在美國和亞洲美白方面的重大創新，以及我們在中國的 Hawley & Hazel 品牌和 Hill's 處方飲食業務兩個重要核心品牌的重新推出，我們對我們對今年餘下時間有機銷售增長加速的預測，這使我們獲得了 4% 至 6% 有機銷售增長的新指導。

Tempering this outlook, obviously, is the difficult cost environment. Our entire cost factor has risen over the past few months, but the biggest impact has come in the area that we call fats and oils. That's palm oil, palm kernel oil, soybean oil, tallow and others. This has historically been our second biggest area of raw material spend behind (inaudible) resins. Although given the inflation we're seeing this year, our spending in the second half on fats and oils will equal our spending on resins. These ingredients are used in every category we compete in, and we expect a more than 60% increase across fats and oils this year.

緩和這種前景顯然是困難的成本環境。在過去的幾個月裡，我們的整個成本因素都在上升，但最大的影響來自我們稱之為脂肪和油的領域。那是棕櫚油、棕櫚仁油、大豆油、牛油等。從歷史上看，這一直是我們僅次於（聽不清）樹脂的第二大原材料支出領域。儘管考慮到我們今年看到的通貨膨脹，我們下半年在油脂上的支出將等於我們在樹脂上的支出。這些成分用於我們競爭的每個類別，我們預計今年脂肪和油類的含量將增加 60% 以上。

And while you know our global supply chain is a strategic advantage, the global nature of our supply chain is adding to costs in the current environment. Freight rates from Mexico to the U.S. are up 30% year-over-year and ocean freights have basically doubled. We continue to take significant steps to offset these headwinds. We are taking additional pricing, and we're launching premium innovation. We established our 2022 global productivity initiative to drive further cost savings for this year and next year while accelerating our Funding the Growth initiatives. We've reduced our overhead ex logistics spending by $30 million in the quarter versus the first quarter last year already.

雖然您知道我們的全球供應鏈具有戰略優勢，但我們供應鏈的全球性質正在增加當前環境下的成本。從墨西哥到美國的運費同比上漲 30%，海運運費基本翻了一番。我們將繼續採取重大措施來抵消這些不利因素。我們正在採取額外的定價，我們正在推出優質的創新。我們制定了 2022 年全球生產力計劃，以推動今年和明年進一步節省成本，同時加快為增長提供資金的計劃。與去年第一季度相比，我們在本季度將我們的間接物流支出減少了 3000 萬美元。

So as we open it up for your questions, we know we need to execute on during the balance of the year, and we're very focused against that. While we know our guidance is below our previous expectations, we believe that our cost forecasts are prudent and that our plans are well thought through and well supported to deliver on our organic sales growth guidance while leaving us well positioned as we look to return to profitable growth.

因此，當我們為您提出問題時，我們知道我們需要在今年餘下的時間裡繼續執行，我們非常關注這一點。雖然我們知道我們的指導低於我們之前的預期，但我們相信我們的成本預測是審慎的，我們的計劃經過深思熟慮並得到很好的支持，以實現我們的有機銷售增長指導，同時讓我們處於有利地位，因為我們希望恢復盈利生長。

Thanks, and I'll be happy to take your questions now.

謝謝，我現在很樂意回答您的問題。

(Operator Instructions) We'll take our first question from Dara Mohsenian with Morgan Stanley.

（操作員說明）我們將回答摩根士丹利的 Dara Mohsenian 提出的第一個問題。

So just a 2-part question on guidance. Noel, when you have this large external change in terms of higher costs, clearly, it requires a change in the level of guidance that we have today, but it also requires a change in sort of choices around the P&L in terms of pricing, levels of investment, productivity, et cetera. So a, just short term with the new guidance, you quantified very well in the prepared remarks, the cost changes. Obviously, the org sales change. But can you just be a bit more specific on maybe some of the other drivers in terms of incremental price you're expecting with the new guidance for 2022, how you think about incremental productivity? Will it change ad spend at all?

所以只是一個關於指導的兩部分問題。諾埃爾，當你在更高的成本方面發生這種巨大的外部變化時，很明顯，它需要改變我們今天的指導水平，但它也需要在定價、水平方面改變損益表的選擇類型投資、生產力等。所以a，只是短期的新指導，你在準備好的評論中很好地量化了成本變化。顯然，組織銷售額發生了變化。但是，您能否更具體地談談您對 2022 年新指導的預期增量價格方面的其他一些驅動因素，您如何看待增量生產力？它會改變廣告支出嗎？

I'm just -- and part of the reason I ask it is you've got $650 million in higher costs, so that's a high teens earnings impact. That's sort of double the earnings revision in the guidance. So I'm just trying to better understand the offsets, just some of the cost pressures. And then b, just wanted to really extend that same question more strategically longer term. You've obviously had success reaccelerating organic sales growth to some extent with the changes under your leadership. Do these sort of P&L decisions this year -- how might, if at all, it impacts the strategies you put in place or sort of the long-term top line growth trajectory as you look beyond this year?

我只是 - 我問它的部分原因是你有 6.5 億美元的更高成本，所以這是對青少年收入的高影響。這是指引中收益修正的兩倍。所以我只是想更好地理解抵消，只是一些成本壓力。然後 b，只是想從戰略上更長期地真正擴展同一個問題。顯然，隨著您領導下的變化，您在一定程度上成功地重新加速了有機銷售增長。今年做這些損益決定——如果有的話，它如何影響你制定的戰略或你今年以後的長期收入增長軌跡？

Sure. Thanks, Dara. Let me start a little bit about the pricing comment because I think it's obviously core to how we're thinking about the balance of the year. As you know, we took pricing in at least the developed markets a little late in the quarter. As we had talked about in the fourth quarter, we had planned to take pricing in February, March and April and that's exactly what happened. So we didn't get the benefits of the pricing in the first quarter P&L, largely in North America as well as Europe, while we were able to get significant pricing across the developing part of the world, it was North America and Europe, which lagged a little bit in the quarter. As we exited the quarter, we saw high single-digit pricing being executed, particularly in the March month, and obviously, that has continued to transpire as we look at the strong sales that we're seeing in April.

當然。謝謝，達拉。讓我先談談定價評論，因為我認為這顯然是我們如何考慮今年餘額的核心。如您所知，我們至少在本季度晚些時候對發達市場進行了定價。正如我們在第四季度所說的那樣，我們計劃在 2 月、3 月和 4 月定價，而這正是發生的情況。因此，我們沒有從第一季度損益表中的定價中受益，主要是在北美和歐洲，而我們能夠在世界發展中地區獲得重要定價，即北美和歐洲，本季度略有滯後。當我們退出本季度時，我們看到正在執行高個位數定價，特別是在 3 月份，顯然，當我們看到 4 月份看到的強勁銷售時，這種情況繼續發生。

We have likewise continued to accelerate pricing in the developing part of the world in the year to go. So a combination of what we're doing in the developed world and the execution of those prices, which was lagged a little bit, particularly in Europe as we were going through some longer negotiations than we anticipated as we entered the quarter -- and we've consequently taken more pricing in the rest of the world, we feel very good about where we are from pricing and March being more indicative of the type of pricing that you will see in the balance of the year.

在接下來的一年裡，我們同樣繼續加快世界發展中地區的定價。因此，結合我們在發達國家所做的事情和這些價格的執行，這些價格有點滯後，尤其是在歐洲，因為我們正在經歷比我們進入本季度時預期的更長的談判——而且我們'因此在世界其他地區採取了更多定價，我們對我們的定價感到非常滿意，並且 3 月更能說明您將在今年餘下時間看到的定價類型。

So, so far, so good, particularly around elasticities, volumes are more or less in line with where we thought. But it's early days on elasticity. We'll see how that unfolds in the balance of the year. But we obviously have, we believe, a very strong innovation plan, very strong promotional plan as well. So on pricing, which I think is core to our guidance, we feel pretty good based on what we've seen in March, as I said, where we see it in April and more importantly, the plans that we put in place for the balance of the year.

所以，到目前為止，非常好，特別是在彈性方面，交易量或多或少與我們的想法一致。但現在是彈性的早期階段。我們將在今年餘下的時間裡看到它是如何展開的。但我們顯然有，我們相信，一個非常強大的創新計劃，以及非常強大的促銷計劃。因此，在定價方面，我認為這是我們指導的核心，根據我們在 3 月份所看到的情況，我們感覺非常好，正如我所說，我們在 4 月份看到的情況，更重要的是，我們為年餘額。

Strategically, in terms of choices, no big changes there. I mean we have a really strong growth plans, as we've talked about going into the year on premium innovation, as well as core innovation. You heard a little bit of that in my comments, 2 significant launches on core innovation. That's our Hawley & Hazel business, which is the #1 brand in China that is a complete portfolio change across the entire business. That was obviously some of the softness we saw in volume in the first quarter was driven by the fact that we were transitioning into an entirely new bundle across the entire portfolio. And likewise, on our Prescription Diet business, which you know, we've had great success on the Science Diet, we're now taking a lot of those learnings into improved nutrition, improved packaging and conceptual execution on the Prescription Diet business, which is at a premium price.

從戰略上講，就選擇而言，那裡沒有大的變化。我的意思是我們有一個非常強大的增長計劃，因為我們已經談到進入這一年的高端創新以及核心創新。您在我的評論中聽到了一些關於核心創新的重要信息。這就是我們的 Hawley & Hazel 業務，它是中國排名第一的品牌，是整個業務的完整組合變化。這顯然是我們在第一季度看到的銷量疲軟，這是由於我們正在向整個投資組合中的全新捆綁銷售轉型。同樣，在我們的處方飲食業務中，您知道，我們在科學飲食方面取得了巨大成功，我們現在正在將這些經驗用於改善營養、改善包裝和處方飲食業務的概念執行，其中價格優惠。

I'd also say that on some of our other core businesses around the world, particularly given the pricing environment that we're faced with, we are now in a much better place to execute relaunches given we have more -- a better line of sight on our supply chain issues that we were faced with. That was obviously taking time away from putting new products in the market. So strategically, when we start thinking about how that lays out for this year and next, we will get back to a lot of those core relaunches, which will allow us to take pricing, obviously bolster volume and value at the same time. So that's kind of where we are strategically, making the right choices, we think about getting pricing in the market, making sure we execute against our very strong innovation plan and protect the core businesses, which will be very, very important as we move into a potential recessionary environment.

我還要說，對於我們在世界各地的其他一些核心業務，特別是考慮到我們面臨的定價環境，我們現在處於一個更好的地方來執行重新啟動，因為我們有更多——更好的產品線關注我們面臨的供應鏈問題。這顯然需要時間將新產品推向市場。因此，從戰略上講，當我們開始考慮今年和明年的佈局時，我們將回到許多核心重新啟動，這將使我們能夠定價，同時明顯提高銷量和價值。這就是我們在戰略上所處的位置，做出正確的選擇，我們考慮在市場上定價，確保我們執行我們非常強大的創新計劃並保護核心業務，這在我們進入時將非常非常重要潛在的衰退環境。

We'll go to our next question from Peter Grom with UBS.

我們將回答來自瑞銀的 Peter Grom 的下一個問題。

So I just wanted to ask about the organic revenue outlook. Noel, I know you mentioned the sequential improvement in February and March and into April. Can you maybe unpack that a little bit? How much stronger was the growth versus what you saw in January? And then just for the high single-digit pricing that we should expect through the balance of the year, is the volume assumption in the 4% to 6% organic revenue outlook predicated on historical elasticities or what you're seeing in the market today?

所以我只想問一下有機收入前景。 Noel，我知道你提到了 2 月、3 月和 4 月的連續改善。你能把它拆開一點嗎？與您在 1 月份看到的相比，增長有多強勁？然後就我們應該在今年餘下時間預期的高個位數定價而言，4% 到 6% 的有機收入前景中的數量假設是基於歷史彈性還是您今天在市場上看到的？

Sure. So let me deconstruct a little bit of Q1. January was a little softer than we anticipated. As I mentioned, we obviously saw a little softness in Europe given some of the delayed pricing negotiations, we saw a little softness in our Hawley & Hazel business, as we mentioned, that's really transitory as we're moving from the old bundle to a new bundle. We saw a little softness in our French business, and we saw a little softness in the rural areas in India. So that led to somewhat soft January.

當然。所以讓我解構一點 Q1。一月份比我們預期的要溫和一些。正如我所提到的，由於一些延遲的定價談判，我們顯然看到了歐洲的一些疲軟，我們看到我們的 Hawley & Hazel 業務有些疲軟，正如我們所提到的，這真的是暫時的，因為我們正在從舊捆綁轉移到新捆綁包。我們在法國業務中看到了一些疲軟，我們在印度農村地區看到了一些疲軟。因此，這導致了 1 月份的疲軟。

Sequentially, we saw all that improve in February and March, both volumes improved February, March versus January. And as I mentioned, we had strong pricing starting to get executed early March and towards the end of the month and into April. So we feel quite good about where we ended the quarter. And as I mentioned, we've seen that translate into a strong April as well. So that's kind of how we've set up the guidance for the year. So 4% in the first quarter, we believe will be the low end of organic for the year, and that will sequentially grow as we move more pricing into the P&L, as well as continue to innovate and provide some volume enhancements as we move through the balance of the year. I'll say that again, getting the supply chain constraints behind us from (technical difficulty) yes, it cost us money relative to doing some of the things that we did to get more toothpaste on the shelf to get more toothbrushes in the market. We have seen that translate into more volume in the business as a result as well. And that's a good thing because we're seeing it translate into consumption and category growth for our retailers.

隨後，我們看到 2 月和 3 月的所有情況都有所改善，2 月和 3 月的交易量都比 1 月有所改善。正如我所提到的，我們從 3 月初開始執行強大的定價，並在月底和 4 月執行。因此，我們對本季度結束的位置感覺很好。正如我所提到的，我們已經看到這也轉化為強勁的四月。這就是我們為年度製定指導方針的方式。因此，我們認為第一季度的 4% 將是今年有機產品的低端，隨著我們將更多定價納入損益表，以及繼續創新並在我們逐步完成時提供一些數量增強，這將依次增長當年的餘額。我再說一遍，從（技術難度）得到供應鏈限制是的，相對於我們所做的一些事情，我們在貨架上獲得更多牙膏以在市場上獲得更多牙刷，這讓我們付出了代價。我們已經看到這也轉化為更多的業務量。這是一件好事，因為我們看到它轉化為我們零售商的消費和品類增長。

So from an organic standpoint, you'll see it sequentially grow through the quarters, particularly as we execute more pricing in the second quarter. And as I mentioned, we've now looked to take more pricing in the back half as we'll see the peak in raw materials come through later in the year. Relative to the pricing aspect, I think not much more to add there. We've taken -- we took strong pricing in developing part of the world. You see our 2-year stack on pricing at roughly 10%. And there's more pricing to come. And you'll see pricing as a percentage of our organic growth likely accelerate certainly in the second and third quarters. And we'll see where we end up in what situation we're in, in the fourth quarter, but pricing will accelerate. That's a combination of a couple of things. Obviously, the revenue management initiatives that we've been taking, we're getting more premium innovation, and I won't get into some of the success we're having behind the Optic White Pro Series, which is our most premium-priced whitening bundle that's doing quite well out of the box. We're obviously, as I mentioned earlier, importantly, using our supply chain now to get core relaunches executed quicker, which will give us a pricing opportunity as well. So those would be the 3 key initiatives relative to getting pricing up in the back half.

因此，從有機的角度來看，您會看到它在各個季度中連續增長，特別是當我們在第二季度執行更多定價時。正如我所提到的，我們現在希望在下半年採取更多定價，因為我們將在今年晚些時候看到原材料的高峰。相對於定價方面，我認為沒有太多可補充的。我們已經採取了 - 我們在世界發展中地區採取了強有力的定價。您會看到我們 2 年的定價堆棧約為 10%。而且還會有更多定價。你會看到定價占我們有機增長的百分比可能會在第二和第三季度加速。我們將在第四季度看到我們所處的情況，但定價將加速。這是幾件事的結合。顯然，我們一直在採取的收入管理計劃，我們正在獲得更多優質的創新，我不會談論我們在 Optic White Pro 系列背後所取得的一些成功，這是我們定價最高的開箱即用的美白套裝。顯然，正如我之前提到的，重要的是，現在使用我們的供應鏈來更快地執行核心重新啟動，這也將為我們提供定價機會。因此，這些將是與在後半部分提高定價相關的 3 個關鍵舉措。

We'll go to our next question from Andrea Teixeira with JPMorgan.

我們將回答來自摩根大通的 Andrea Teixeira 的下一個問題。

I just wanted to perhaps focus on North America and talk about home care, which was obviously a headwind as you called out. And Noel, you just pointed out that some of the new franchises and the premiumization efforts have been bearing fruit. So I was wondering how we should be thinking in the balance of the year? And just as a prior question regarding elasticities, how we should be thinking? It looks as if, as you said, like you have a stack 10% pricing. I'm assuming that is U.S. So how can we be thinking as you roll over more pricing? Just a fine point there, is pricing coming in at the end of the summer into the fall or actually earlier than that in the U.S.

我只是想也許專注於北美並談論家庭護理，正如您所說，這顯然是一個逆風。諾埃爾，你剛剛指出，一些新的特許經營權和高端化努力已經結出碩果。所以我想知道我們應該如何思考今年的餘額？就像之前關於彈性的問題一樣，我們應該如何思考？正如您所說，看起來好像您有 10% 的定價。我假設那是美國。那麼當你推出更多定價時，我們怎麼能想到呢？只是一個很好的地方，定價是在夏末到秋季或實際上早於美國的定價。

Sure. Thanks, Andrea. Let me talk a little bit about home care. So again, a little bit of the constraints that we had with contractors and the implications of certainly the COVID-related issues that have challenged a lot of the contract manufacturing in the U.S. that certainly plagued us a bit on some of our home care, particularly our dish liquid business and we have specifically addressed that and starting to see the improvements of that as we move through the balance of the first quarter and as we moved into April as well. So we see home care from a volume standpoint, starting to come back nicely.

當然。謝謝，安德里亞。讓我談談家庭護理。再說一次，我們與承包商之間的一些限制以及與 COVID 相關的問題的影響，這些問題對美國的許多合同製造提出了挑戰，這肯定在我們的一些家庭護理方面困擾著我們，特別是我們的餐具液體業務，我們已經特別解決了這個問題，並且隨著我們進入第一季度的餘額以及進入 4 月，我們開始看到這一點的改善。所以我們從數量的角度來看家庭護理，開始很好地回歸。

We're taking pricing on some of that home care business in the second quarter as well, and so that will obviously translate into improved performance. Overall, the cleaner business is solid. The fabric softener business is quite solid from a share standpoint, a little softness in dish liquid, and we have plans on particularly the Palmolive and Ajax business in the U.S. from a combination of both pricing and some new product initiatives to hopefully bolster that business as we move through the back half.

我們也在第二季度對部分家庭護理業務進行定價，因此這顯然會轉化為業績的改善。總體而言，清潔劑業務穩健。從份額的角度來看，織物柔軟劑業務相當穩固，洗碗液有點柔軟，我們計劃結合定價和一些新產品計劃，特別是在美國的 Palmolive 和 Ajax 業務，以期支持該業務作為我們穿過後半部分。

On elasticities, again, it's really early days here. And I think you have seen it consistently across most of the sector. Everyone is assuming that elasticities will be better than historical numbers. Why? It's because everyone is consistently taking up pricing, so therefore, everything is going to be up, and where every day -- products that consumers use every day. And so as a result of that aspect, I think you'll see a little bit less and less elasticities than we've seen in the past, and that's what we've seen so far. But again, there's a couple of factors to take into consideration.

再說一次，關於彈性，現在還為時過早。而且我認為您在該行業的大部分地區都看到了這一點。每個人都假設彈性會好於歷史數據。為什麼？這是因為每個人都在持續定價，因此，一切都會上漲，而且每天都在哪裡——消費者每天使用的產品。因此，由於這方面的原因，我認為你會看到比我們過去看到的越來越少的彈性，這就是我們迄今為止所看到的。但同樣，有幾個因素需要考慮。

There will be significant inflation across the entire consumer segment, and we'll be watching that very closely. But if you go back historically, our franchise and our portfolio positioning plays well in inflationary environments because we have big core businesses, widespread distribution and we compete across multiple price points. But we know that we can continue to grow the premium segment of the market, which is where we under-index, high indexes in the core business, but we're going to take ambitious plans on our core business to bring value to the category and to our retailers. So we feel pretty good about where the elasticities will ultimately end up here just because we've experienced it before. We've got good innovation going into the market. And as I said, kind of all ships are rising in this case to the categories are all taking pricing across the board.

整個消費領域都將出現大幅通脹，我們將密切關注這一點。但是，如果您回顧歷史，我們的特許經營權和我們的投資組合定位在通脹環境中表現良好，因為我們擁有龐大的核心業務、廣泛的分銷渠道並且我們在多個價位上競爭。但我們知道，我們可以繼續發展高端市場，這是我們在核心業務中低於指數、高指數的地方，但我們將對我們的核心業務採取雄心勃勃的計劃，為該類別帶來價值以及我們的零售商。所以我們對彈性最終會在哪裡結束感覺很好，因為我們以前經歷過。我們有很好的創新進入市場。正如我所說，在這種情況下，所有船舶都在上漲，所有類別都在全面定價。

We'll go next to Wendy Nicholson with Citi.

我們將和花旗一起去溫迪尼科爾森旁邊。

Okay. So just a follow-up on that line of questioning about the elasticities. If I look back in my model, the one business that really suffered during the great recession for you was the Hill's business. And I honestly can't remember whether that was something specific to the Hill's business, whether it's innovation or a competitive thing or whether that was an area where consumers really did trade down. So I guess number one, you don't need to recreate history for me, but just in terms of your confidence that the Hill's business this time around is going to remain strong.

好的。所以只是對彈性問題的後續跟進。如果我回顧我的模型，那麼在大衰退期間對你來說真正遭受損失的一項業務是希爾的業務。老實說，我不記得這是否是希爾的業務特有的東西，是創新還是競爭性的東西，或者這是否是消費者真正放棄交易的領域。所以我猜第一，你不需要為我重新創造歷史，但就你對這一次希爾的業務將保持強勁的信心而言。

Your volume growth there has been amazing. Just your confidence that if we do go into a recession, consumers are going to trade down and look for cheaper pet food.

你們的銷量增長驚人。只要您相信，如果我們確實陷入衰退，消費者就會降價購買更便宜的寵物食品。

Yes. If you go back to -- I believe you're probably looking at '08, '09, and that was at least the beginning of the [naturals] boom, as you remembered. And as we have openly stated, we made in our view, some strategic errors in how we chase the naturals rather than staying true to the core business. So I think that was the biggest driver. And certainly, at that point in time, Wendy the Hill's business was nowhere near as salient and had nowhere close to the momentum that it has today, and we're certainly on our front foot and continue to think about that business in terms of investment.

是的。如果你回到 - 我相信你可能正在看 08 年，09 年，那至少是 [naturals] 繁榮的開始，正如你所記得的那樣。正如我們公開聲明的那樣，在我們看來，我們在追求自然而不是忠於核心業務方面犯了一些戰略錯誤。所以我認為這是最大的驅動力。當然，在那個時間點，Wendy the Hill 的業務遠沒有今天那麼突出，也遠不及今天的勢頭，我們當然處於領先地位，並繼續在投資方面考慮該業務.

You heard today that we closed the NutriAmo contract manufacturing facility that we bought in Italy. That is going to unlock more wet capacity for us, which is one of the fastest-growing segments, particularly in Europe, which is exciting. We're relaunching the Prescription Diet business going into the back half of this year, which is obviously about half of our business, which we think is going to be an exciting innovation for particularly our veterinarian professionals. So the business is in a much different place today than it was back in '08, '09. Obviously, much more (inaudible). We're going to maintain the investment spend there, which we think is critically important. Again, this is a business that has low penetration and low share, so a lot of upside in North America and capacity constraint today, hence the reason of why the purchase of NutriAmo.

您今天聽說我們關閉了我們在意大利購買的 NutriAmo 合同製造工廠。這將為我們釋放更多的濕容量，這是增長最快的部分之一，尤其是在歐洲，這令人興奮。我們將在今年下半年重新啟動處方飲食業務，這顯然是我們業務的一半左右，我們認為這對於我們的獸醫專業人士來說將是一項令人興奮的創新。因此，今天的業務與 08 年和 09 年的情況大不相同。顯然，更多（聽不清）。我們將維持那裡的投資支出，我們認為這是至關重要的。同樣，這是一個低滲透率和低份額的業務，因此在北美有很大的上升空間和今天的產能限制，這就是為什麼要購買 NutriAmo 的原因。

So again, we think we're in a much different place than we were in '08, '09. The brand itself is significantly stronger than it's been in the past.

再說一次，我們認為我們所處的位置與 08 年和 09 年大不相同。該品牌本身比過去要強大得多。

And we'll go to our next question from Olivia Tong with Raymond James.

我們將與 Raymond James 一起回答 Olivia Tong 的下一個問題。

I was hoping to get a little bit more granularity around your full year EPS expectations and how much of the EPS revision is due to input costs versus FX rate as you handicap, but perhaps a 10 point swing on EPS expectations from one end of the pendulum to the other. And realizing, obviously, there's no shortage (inaudible). But can you talk about what the most meaningful changes are there and mathematically, how do you get from where you were to mid-singles down the singles? And then specifically for international markets, can you talk about what your peers are doing not just the multinationals, but the local players with respect to pricing? Is the expectation that they are pricing or the realization what you're seeing so far that they're pricing at a commensurate level to what you're doing?

我希望能更詳細地了解您的全年每股收益預期，以及每股收益修正有多少是由於輸入成本與外匯匯率的關係，但也許從鐘擺的一端開始，每股收益預期會出現 10 個點的波動給對方。並且意識到，顯然，沒有短缺（聽不清）。但是你能談談那裡最有意義的變化嗎？從數學上講，你是如何從你所在的位置到單打中單的？然後專門針對國際市場，您能否談談您的同行不僅是跨國公司，而且是本地參與者在定價方面所做的事情？是他們定價的期望還是你目前所看到的實現他們的定價與你正在做的事情相稱的水平？

Yes. Thanks, Olivia. Great to hear from you. Let me just talk conceptually on the EPS, and then I'll have Stan jump in and give you a little bit more of a bridge in terms of how we're thinking about it. But fundamentally, listen, this comes down to the extraordinary acceleration that we saw in our raw materials post the January guidance, which as you've heard, is around $0.5 billion. So just add on its own is driving, obviously, the significant change in EPS, combined with the fact that our logistics have continued to accelerate. Part of that, we will work out of as we move through potentially the back half of the year with improved manufacturing and supply chain, which is obviously important for us to get that product on the shelf, as I mentioned, which is we're doing at a higher cost, but we anticipate logistics will stay high. Ocean rates, we are keeping ocean rates at where they are today for the balance of the year. And obviously, some of the transit rates that we're seeing, particularly out of Mexico, which are up about 30% versus the year ago period, we're assuming that will maintain itself as well.

是的。謝謝，奧利維亞。很高興聽到你的消息。讓我從概念上談談 EPS，然後我會讓 Stan 介入，並就我們如何思考它給你更多的橋樑。但從根本上說，聽著，這歸結為我們在 1 月份指導後的原材料中看到的異常加速，正如你所聽說的，大約 5 億美元。因此，顯然，僅靠它本身就可以推動 EPS 的顯著變化，再加上我們的物流繼續加速這一事實。其中一部分，我們將在下半年通過改進製造和供應鏈來解決問題，正如我所提到的，這對於我們將產品上架顯然很重要，這就是我們成本更高，但我們預計物流將保持高位。海運費，我們在今年餘下時間將海運費保持在今天的水平。顯然，我們看到的一些過境率，特別是從墨西哥出發的，與去年同期相比上漲了約 30%，我們假設這也會保持下去。

So raw materials, largely driven by fats and oils. I'll get Stan -- why don't I have Stan open that up a little bit for you. And then I'll come back and we'll talk about the international markets and pricing.

所以原材料，主要是由脂肪和油驅動的。我會得到斯坦——為什麼不讓斯坦為你打開一點。然後我會回來，我們將討論國際市場和定價。

Sure. Thanks, Noel. So as we entered the year, we knew the commodity costs were going to be up year-on-year, and we planned for that. In January, we entered the year, we saw in the market. We expected that material cost would moderate as we went through the year. At that time, in January, we anticipated roughly $750 million or 13% year-to-year increase.

當然。謝謝，諾埃爾。因此，當我們進入這一年時，我們知道商品成本將同比上漲，我們為此做好了計劃。一月份，我們進入了一年，我們在市場上看到了。我們預計，隨著這一年的過去，材料成本會有所放緩。當時，1 月份，我們預計同比增長約 7.5 億美元或 13%。

But as we stated in January, if the commodity costs don't moderate, that would represent a headwind. So what's happened? Since January, as you heard in our prepared remarks, we've seen significant movement in those commodity costs. And now we see an incremental $500 million of cost for the year. What that means is that material costs will be up over 20% for the full year on a year-on-year basis. So we put some context a little bit underneath what's happening in those commodities.

但正如我們在一月份所說，如果大宗商品成本沒有放緩，那將是逆風。那麼發生了什麼？正如您在我們準備好的評論中所聽到的那樣，自一月份以來，我們已經看到這些商品成本發生了顯著變化。現在我們看到今年的成本增加了 5 億美元。這意味著全年材料成本將同比增長20%以上。因此，我們在這些商品中發生的情況下添加了一些背景信息。

Natural gas is up over 60%. And natural gas is used to power many of our plants and importantly, many of our suppliers' plants, which puts pressure on their costs and timing. Soybean and corn are up by over 1/3; palm is up 25% and increasing. So as we said earlier, what that means for the year, fats and oils, including palm will be up over 60% year-to-year and doubled since 2020.

天然氣上漲超過 60%。天然氣用於為我們的許多工廠提供動力，重要的是，為我們的許多供應商的工廠提供動力，這給他們的成本和時間帶來了壓力。大豆和玉米上漲超過1/3；棕櫚樹上漲了 25% 並且還在增加。因此，正如我們之前所說，這對今年意味著什麼，包括棕櫚在內的油脂將同比增長 60% 以上，自 2020 年以來翻了一番。

Resins are up over 20%. And these 2 categories combined, fats and oils and resins make up a significant portion of the material spend and on a combined basis are up nearly 40%. Take Listerine, another important material, and that's more than doubled year-to-year. So as we've looked at logistics, we saw similar cost inflation. And since we've seen that increase, we've over $150 million since our expectations in January, that translates to logistics being up nearly 20% for the full year. And -- some of this increase is because we prioritize meeting clients' needs. We talked briefly about this, our decision to prioritize toothbrush shipments, given client demand and market opportunity, particularly in North America, we grew that category double digits and gained over 450 points of share.

樹脂價格上漲超過 20%。這兩個類別加起來，油脂和樹脂佔材料支出的很大一部分，加起來將近 40%。以李施德林為例，這是另一種重要的材料，每年翻一番還多。因此，當我們研究物流時，我們看到了類似的成本膨脹。自從我們看到這一增長以來，自 1 月份的預期以來，我們已經超過 1.5 億美元，這意味著物流全年增長了近 20%。而且——這種增長的一部分是因為我們優先滿足客戶的需求。我們簡要討論了這一點，我們決定優先考慮牙刷出貨量，考慮到客戶需求和市場機會，特別是在北美，我們將該類別增長了兩位數，並獲得了超過 450 點的份額。

Now I think importantly, Noel talked about, this would represent over a 20% increase to our cost over $1.2 billion. But what are we doing to tackle that and mitigate some of that significant escalation? On materials, we're leveraging alternate materials where viable, reformulating where that makes sense, taking price to reflect the cost increase. We've talked about price significantly here. And then things like leveraging analytics to enhance our procurement process and driving our robust Funding the Growth program to help mitigate that profit impact.

現在我認為重要的是，諾埃爾談到，這意味著我們的成本將增加 20% 以上，超過 12 億美元。但是我們正在做些什麼來解決這個問題並減輕一些重大升級？在材料方面，我們在可行的情況下利用替代材料，在有意義的地方重新制定，以價格反映成本增加。我們在這裡討論了價格。然後是利用分析來增強我們的採購流程並推動我們強大的“資助增長”計劃，以幫助減輕對利潤的影響。

On logistics, we're taking a number of actions. As our supply chain stabilizes from things like COVID-impact and material shortages, we're going to streamline our logistics use less expedited transport. Now temporarily, we're carrying more finished goods inventory due to erratic and longer transit times. We're also making things like investments in automating our warehouses. So while these remain volatile, we're being aggressive to tackle those. So from a P&L point of view, as you translate that down to EPS, those are going to be a headwind for us for the year. We're taking aggressive pricing, aggressive Funding the Growth and productivity actions but we're still expecting margin will contract for the year.

在物流方面，我們正在採取一些行動。隨著我們的供應鏈因 COVID 影響和材料短缺等因素而穩定下來，我們將使用較少的加急運輸來簡化我們的物流。現在，由於運輸時間不穩定且運輸時間較長，我們暫時攜帶更多成品庫存。我們還在進行諸如投資自動化倉庫之類的事情。因此，儘管這些仍然不穩定，但我們正在積極解決這些問題。因此，從損益表的角度來看，當您將其轉化為每股收益時，這將成為我們今年的逆風。我們正在採取激進的定價、激進的融資增長和生產力行動，但我們仍預計今年的利潤率將收縮。

And we're going to maintain investment in advertising. We believe that that's an important component of our long-term model, and that's why we've taken that our organic growth up to the 4% to 6% range. Take that down, we'll continue to drive improvements in overhead. And stripping logistics, our overhead improved on a year-on-year basis. And the team has done a very good job of managing that prudently, but that's what yields us down to a EPS when you take into the effects the multiple interest rate hikes, a headwind on tax, that drives the EPS here down on a year-on-year basis to mid-single digits.

我們將保持對廣告的投資。我們相信這是我們長期模型的重要組成部分，這就是為什麼我們將有機增長率提高到 4% 到 6% 的原因。把它記下來，我們將繼續推動開銷的改進。剝離物流，我們的管理費用同比有所改善。團隊在謹慎管理這方面做得非常好，但這就是當你考慮到多次加息的影響時，這就是我們的每股收益，稅收的逆風，導致每股收益在一年內下降-按年計算至中個位數。

So let me come back to what we're seeing on local brands and certainly private label to a certain extent as an extension of that. I would just return for some travel around Asia. We're certainly seeing some of the local brands take pricing there. And likewise, I think we're going to see private label follow very quickly. Obviously, these increases impact them and their cost of goods are obviously materially higher than ours. So we will watch that carefully. We don't have a lot of categories that index highly with private label. Obviously, oral care very low single digits. The 2 categories that we need to watch carefully are liquid hand soap and toothbrushes. But so far, we have not seen a significant erosion or migration to private label, and so (technical difficulty) as we see the environment unfold over the next few months.

因此，讓我回到我們在本地品牌上看到的東西，當然還有自有品牌在一定程度上是其延伸。我只是回到亞洲進行一些旅行。我們當然看到一些本地品牌在那裡定價。同樣，我認為我們將很快看到自有品牌的跟進。顯然，這些增長對他們產生了影響，他們的商品成本明顯高於我們的。所以我們會仔細觀察。我們沒有很多以自有標籤高度索引的類別。顯然，口腔護理的個位數很低。我們需要仔細觀察的 2 個類別是洗手液和牙刷。但到目前為止，我們還沒有看到對自有品牌的重大侵蝕或遷移，因此（技術困難）我們看到未來幾個月環境會展開。

And we'll go to our next question from Steve Powers with Deutsche Bank.

我們將回答來自德意志銀行的史蒂夫鮑爾斯的下一個問題。

Yes. I guess I'm curious as to how you think about the supply chain impacts in terms of quantification in the quarter, whether in terms of volume or market share, particularly in North America, but peppered throughout your remarks [or] supply chain issues, including in Europe and Latin America, holding you back. So just curious as to how you think about how much you were held back and how that -- how much of that kind of reverses and releases for the balance of the year, number one. And then number two, just maybe just some further details on China. It was down overall. I think in your release, you said that you called out Colgate China itself as a point of strength. So obviously, some timing there with Hawley & Hazel, but just some -- maybe some more color on what happened in China and how you think about that market going forward, which is obviously a very dynamic context.

是的。我想我很好奇你如何看待本季度量化方面的供應鏈影響，無論是在數量還是市場份額方面，尤其是在北美，但在你的評論[或]供應鏈問題中，包括歐洲和拉丁美洲，阻礙了你。所以只是好奇你如何看待你被阻礙了多少以及如何 - 在今年的餘額中，有多少這種逆轉和釋放，第一。然後是第二個，也許只是關於中國的更多細節。整體下降了。我認為在您的新聞稿中，您說您將高露潔中國本身稱為實力點。所以很明顯，Hawley & Hazel 的一些時機，但只是一些 - 可能對中國發生的事情以及你如何看待這個市場的未來有更多的色彩，這顯然是一個非常動態的背景。

Sure. Thanks, Steve. Listen, the supply chain, as we talked about throughout 2021 has been really choppy with a lot of second and third derivative impacts of all the implications related to COVID. But if you take specifically the impacts to us, where you really feel it is on shelf availability. And we have historically been best-in-class in that regard across our categories and some of the setbacks we saw from COVID lockdowns in China where we saw some of the challenges we've seen in logistics coming out of Mexico, raw material suppliers as well, having shortfalls, that caused a lot of choppiness in our supply chain throughout 2021 and certainly accelerated a bit as we went into the first -- out of the fourth quarter and into the first quarter. The good news is, as we finished off in the back half of February and into March, we saw a lot of those issues structurally get much, much better for us as a company. Our on-shelf availability, which should dip way below norms, was now back right at top of class. And you see that directly in our point-of-sale data in some of those customers where we actually now are measuring detailed on-shelf availability at the daily and weekly basis that allows us to react very, very quickly.

當然。謝謝，史蒂夫。聽著，供應鏈，正如我們在整個 2021 年所討論的那樣，一直很不穩定，與 COVID 相關的所有影響都產生了很多二階和三階導數影響。但是，如果您特別考慮對我們的影響，您真正感受到的是貨架可用性。在這方面，我們歷來都是同類產品中的佼佼者，我們從中國的 COVID 封鎖中看到了一些挫折，在那裡我們看到了來自墨西哥的物流方面的一些挑戰，原材料供應商是嗯，有短缺，這在整個 2021 年導致我們的供應鏈出現很多波動，並且隨著我們進入第一季度——從第四季度到第一季度，肯定會加速。好消息是，當我們在 2 月下半月和 3 月結束時，我們看到很多這些問題在結構上變得非常好，對我們公司來說要好得多。我們的貨架上的可用性應該遠遠低於標準，現在又回到了一流的水平。您可以直接在我們的一些客戶的銷售點數據中看到這一點，我們現在實際上正在每天和每週測量詳細的貨架可用性，這使我們能夠非常非常快速地做出反應。

We have taken decisions through 2021 and in the first quarter, to ensure that we have sufficient inventory to compensate some of those -- the shortfalls that we we're seeing and the uncertainty that we had from various contractors or raw material suppliers. That has cost us some money but we feel in the end is now given the trade, obviously, far more -- a clear line of sight in terms of our ability to source an increasing demand, particularly behind our toothpaste and toothbrush business here in the first quarter. So on-shelf ability significantly improved as we exited the quarter and has maintained itself as we went into April, that has translated into better market share performance.

我們已在 2021 年和第一季度做出決定，以確保我們有足夠的庫存來彌補其中的一些不足——我們看到的短缺以及來自各種承包商或原材料供應商的不確定性。這讓我們花了一些錢，但我們覺得最終得到了貿易，顯然，更多 - 就我們獲得不斷增長的需求的能力而言，這是一個清晰的視線，特別是在我們的牙膏和牙刷業務背後第一季度。因此，當我們退出本季度時，上架能力顯著提高，並在進入 4 月份時保持不變，這轉化為更好的市場份額表現。

Take the U.S. in the last 5 weeks, we were up or flat in [7 out of 11] categories, which is a marked improvement versus where we had been in the past. Some of the issues likewise translated into the European business where we saw some shortfalls in terms of service levels there that now has been addressed through some decisions that we have taken, and we're seeing likewise, as we exited the quarter a little bit better volume. So all in all, across the board, most of those issues now are behind us, particularly the lockdown issues that really had a significant impact on part of our business. And I give credit to the supply chain for doing a tremendous amount of agility work that I think is only going to set us up for stronger resilience moving forward as we see some of the uncertainty continue to unfold in certain parts of the world.

以美國為例，在過去 5 週內，我們在 [11 個中有 7 個] 類別中上升或持平，這與我們過去的水平相比有了顯著改善。一些問題同樣轉化為歐洲業務，我們看到那裡的服務水平存在一些不足，現在已經通過我們做出的一些決定得到了解決，我們也看到了同樣的情況，因為我們退出了這個季度好一點體積。總而言之，總的來說，這些問題中的大多數現在都已經過去了，尤其是真正對我們的部分業務產生重大影響的鎖定問題。我對供應鏈所做的大量敏捷工作表示讚賞，我認為這只會讓我們為更強大的彈性前進做好準備，因為我們看到一些不確定性繼續在世界某些地區展開。

China is actually a really good story from the sense of our CP China business was up high single digits in the quarter. Our CP China business, combined with Hawley & Hazel, was up 650 basis points in market share in the online business, which is obviously the fastest-growing part of the China retail sector.

中國實際上是一個非常好的故事，因為我們的正大中國業務在本季度實現了高個位數的增長。我們的正大中國業務與 Hawley & Hazel 的在線業務市場份額上升了 650 個基點，這顯然是中國零售行業增長最快的部分。

Hawley & Hazel business was migrating, as I mentioned, Steve, to an entirely new portfolio and repositioning of the brand, including a brand name change that will incur -- that was rolling out in the first quarter. As a result of the significant distribution scale of China, we were moving down inventories of old product distributors. We're obviously taking their inventories down in preparation for the excitement behind the relaunch. We've started to see a lot of that unfold in the back end of March and now into April, and we'll see it ultimately, it will take a couple more months before we see full distribution of that new product across the China market.

正如我提到的史蒂夫，Hawley & Hazel 的業務正在遷移到全新的產品組合和品牌重新定位，包括將發生的品牌名稱變更——這將在第一季度推出。由於中國的分銷規模很大，我們正在減少老產品分銷商的庫存。我們顯然正在減少他們的庫存，為重新啟動背後的興奮做準備。我們已經開始在 3 月底和現在到 4 月看到很多這樣的情況，我們最終會看到，還需要幾個月的時間才能看到新產品在中國市場的全面分銷.

So overall, the China business looks quite strong for us. For the first time in many, many years, our overall China market shares in toothpaste, that's combined, Hawley & Hazel and Colgate are up. So it's been a long time since you've heard me say that, but I think that's a testament to some big strategic changes that we made in China. Now going back 2.5, 3 years, both in terms of portfolio strategy as well as go to market that we'd say is definitely paying dividends. And we'll watch obviously the Hawley & Hazel relaunch carefully but quite excited about that thus far in terms of how we're seeing it hit the market.

因此，總體而言，中國業務對我們來說看起來相當強勁。多年來，我們在牙膏中的整體中國市場份額（Hawley & Hazel 和高露潔合起來）首次上升。所以你已經很久沒有聽到我這麼說了，但我認為這證明了我們在中國做出了一些重大的戰略改變。現在回溯 2.5 年、3 年，無論是在投資組合策略方面，還是在進入市場方面，我們都會說這肯定會帶來紅利。我們顯然會仔細觀察 Hawley & Hazel 的重新啟動，但到目前為止，就我們看到它如何進入市場而言，我們對此感到非常興奮。

We'll go to our next question from Jason English with Goldman Sachs.

我們將回答 Jason English 和 Goldman Sachs 的下一個問題。

I guess a couple of questions. First, kind of building off your last comments around the online or the exit of the Darlie brand. When did that begin exactly like in the execution? And I imagine your planning assumption is that you're not going to retain all of the sales as you migrate away from the brand. When do you think will -- that pressure will be behind us? How many quarters do we have to live with what's likely going to be a drag from the rebranding?

我猜有幾個問題。首先，圍繞在線或 Darlie 品牌的退出建立您的最後評論。那是什麼時候開始的，就像在執行中一樣？我想你的計劃假設是，當你離開品牌時，你不會保留所有的銷售額。你認為什麼時候——壓力會在我們身後？我們必須忍受多少個季度可能會受到品牌重塑的拖累？

Sure. Listen, I mean, we expect, obviously, that we will not only hold but ultimately build share with this relaunch, Jason, that's the intent. I mean we have significant investment planned behind this relaunch. It is the #1 brand in China, has incredible salience. We're putting in improved technology as well. We have an innovation stream that's coming behind this. Now there's no question there's always risk when you change a brand name, but all of the work that we've done thus far and what we've seen early days, that transition really started at the tail end of January, early February, the bulk of it starting to happen in March. And as I mentioned, will unfold more than likely over the next couple -- 2 to 3 months.

當然。聽著，我的意思是，很明顯，我們期望我們不僅會持有而且最終會通過這次重新啟動建立份額，傑森，這就是意圖。我的意思是，我們計劃在此次重新啟動後進行重大投資。它是中國第一品牌，具有令人難以置信的顯著性。我們也在投入改進的技術。我們有一個背後的創新流。毫無疑問，當您更改品牌名稱時總是存在風險，但我們迄今為止所做的所有工作以及我們在早期看到的情況，這種轉變實際上是從 1 月底、2 月初開始的，其中大部分從三月開始發生。正如我所提到的，在接下來的兩到三個月內，很有可能會展開。

We will know by the end of the second quarter, third quarter, where we are. We'll get a good sense, particularly in the online world. As I mentioned, the vast majority -- the fastest-growing channel is online in China. And we'll get a read pretty quickly in how we're doing relative to our online business with Darlie in that market. But overall, this is a widely distributed product, very, very strong, obviously gets into C, D and E cities. So it's widely distributed. It will take time to work through the old product, but we're starting to see some of the new product already on shelf in the modern trade, and so far, so good. But I would say, give us another quarter, the balance of this quarter to really assess how we're doing and come back to you with the point of view as we move into the third quarter.

我們將在第二季度，第三季度末知道我們在哪裡。我們會很清楚，尤其是在網絡世界中。正如我所提到的，絕大多數——增長最快的渠道是中國的在線渠道。我們將很快了解我們在該市場與 Darlie 的在線業務的相對情況。但總的來說，這是一個分佈廣泛的產品，非常非常強大，顯然進入了 C、D 和 E 城市。所以分佈很廣。處理舊產品需要時間，但我們開始看到一些新產品已經在現代貿易中上架，到目前為止，一切都很好。但我想說，再給我們一個季度，本季度的餘額，以真正評估我們的表現，並在我們進入第三季度時向您提出觀點。

We'll go to our next question from Lauren Lieberman with Barclays.

我們將回答來自巴克萊銀行的 Lauren Lieberman 的下一個問題。

I wanted to follow up on the supply chain question because I do know that in fourth quarter or even third quarter results you had talked about supply chain dynamics impacting North America. But at least to my recollection, this is the first we've heard about supply chain bottlenecks and headwinds for Latin America and Europe.

我想跟進供應鏈問題，因為我知道在第四季度甚至第三季度的業績中，您曾談到影響北美的供應鏈動態。但至少在我的記憶中，這是我們第一次聽說拉丁美洲和歐洲的供應鏈瓶頸和逆風。

And given it impacted sales in the quarter, I would think that you'd have a sense of that by the time you reported 4Q. Same goes, honestly, for the sort of softer start to the year in January. So I just -- I wanted to ask specifically about the supply chain dynamics in Latin America and Europe. And then a broader question just on visibility because it just feels like -- I know it's a volatile environment, but that there seems to be an inter-quarter moving target and just level of confidence, frankly, as we look forward for the balance of the year?

鑑於它影響了本季度的銷售，我認為您在報告第四季度時就會對此有所了解。老實說，對於 1 月份的那種較軟的開局來說也是如此。所以我只是 - 我想具體詢問拉丁美洲和歐洲的供應鏈動態。然後是一個更廣泛的問題，只是關於可見性，因為它感覺就像 - 我知道這是一個不穩定的環境，但坦率地說，似乎有一個季度間移動目標和信心水平，因為我們期待平衡那一年？

Sure. Lauren, let me just clarify. We have not had supply chain issues in Latin America. The supply chain issues and the volatility that we've seen has principally been driven by the North America complexities that we've incurred as well as some shortfalls from some of our raw material suppliers in the middle of the quarter in Europe, which created obviously some constraints there. So specifically, it's been North America, driven by some lockdown issues in China as well as some of the COVID-related issues we had in some of our facilities here in North America.

當然。勞倫，讓我澄清一下。我們在拉丁美洲沒有出現供應鏈問題。我們所看到的供應鏈問題和波動主要是由我們在北美遇到的複雜性以及我們在本季度中期在歐洲的一些原材料供應商的一些短缺造成的，這顯然造成了那裡有一些限制。具體來說，是北美，這是由中國的一些封鎖問題以及我們在北美的一些設施中遇到的一些與 COVID 相關的問題所驅動的。

So as I mentioned, we feel very good about where we've now in March. Structurally, things have gotten much better, efficiencies in the plant, asset utilization, capacity output, all are moving in the right direction, which are good indications that we're moving to where we want to be.

正如我所提到的，我們對三月份的現狀感覺非常好。從結構上講，情況變得更好了，工廠的效率、資產利用率、產能輸出都朝著正確的方向發展，這很好地表明我們正在朝著我們想要的方向發展。

And as I mentioned, some of the service level challenges that we've had and I think everyone has moved through, but we were somewhat exacerbated by those in terms of our ability to get what we needed into some of our key customers are now back to historical high levels. So good news there, no issue, Latin America. On Europe, specifically had dealt with a some raw material shortages that came from some of our suppliers mid-quarter. So that was after we discussed it, we set guidance in January, that particularly hit us in Europe and that has now moved behind us and things are back to a much more normalized level.

正如我所提到的，我們遇到過的一些服務水平挑戰，我認為每個人都已經克服了，但是在我們將我們需要的東西提供給一些關鍵客戶的能力方面，我們現在又回來了至歷史高位。好消息，沒問題，拉丁美洲。在歐洲，特別是處理了一些原材料短缺的問題，這些原材料來自我們的一些供應商的季度中期。所以那是在我們討論之後，我們在 1 月份制定了指導方針，這對我們在歐洲的影響尤其大，現在已經落後於我們，事情又回到了更加正常化的水平。

We see that, quite frankly, all around the world. I mean, if you look at a number of issues that we dealt with in 2021 and moving into the quarter this year with raw material suppliers or contractors, those seem to have subsided. Let's watch it carefully because anything can happen in the current world, given the uncertainty that everyone is faced with. But we have put a lot more resilience into the system now to deal with some of the unforeseen circumstances that we're seeing.

坦率地說，我們在世界各地都看到了這一點。我的意思是，如果你看看我們在 2021 年處理並進入今年這個季度與原材料供應商或承包商的一些問題，這些問題似乎已經消退。讓我們仔細觀察它，因為每個人都面臨著不確定性，在當前世界中任何事情都可能發生。但是我們現在已經在系統中投入了更多的彈性，以應對我們所看到的一些不可預見的情況。

Listen, in terms of visibility, Lauren, we were -- we came out of last year understanding that we were faced with $750 million of incremental cost and we had the pricing in place to deal with that. And the gross margins came in were less in line, actually just slightly below where we expected, a little bit above guidance to (inaudible) in the first quarter. And then we got hit with the significant incremental increases to the tune of $0.5 billion post the January call, which came in mid-Feb and into March. So that's been the single biggest issue in terms of visibility for us. We did not anticipate those.

聽著，就知名度而言，勞倫，我們是——我們從去年開始就明白我們面臨著 7.5 億美元的增量成本，並且我們有適當的定價來解決這個問題。並且毛利率不太一致，實際上略低於我們的預期，略高於第一季度的（聽不清）指導。然後，在 2 月中旬到 3 月的 1 月電話會議之後，我們受到了 5 億美元的顯著增量增長的打擊。因此，就我們的知名度而言，這是最大的問題。我們沒有預料到這些。

We had cost becoming more benign in the back half initially when we set guidance, obviously, with the war, all of that change. So the visibility for us became dramatically different as we exited the quarter and hence the change in our guidance that we've communicated today.

當我們制定指導方針時，我們在後半部分的成本變得更加溫和，顯然，隨著戰爭，所有這些變化。因此，當我們退出本季度時，我們的能見度變得截然不同，因此我們今天傳達的指導也發生了變化。

Lauren, if I could just add one thing, going back to your Latin America comment. There was some impact in Latin America, really, over the last couple of quarters relative to the supply chain issues we saw with plant lockdowns in Asia. So that was what we were referring to in the prepared commentary.

勞倫，如果我能補充一件事，請回到您對拉丁美洲的評論。在過去幾個季度中，拉丁美洲確實產生了一些影響，這與我們看到的亞洲工廠停工供應鏈問題有關。這就是我們在準備好的評論中所指的內容。

But no, nothing relative to LatAm for themselves. They've been able to obviously continue to do what they need to do. But as you know, we source quite a bit of product out of Latin America. The costs have gone up but we don't have anything that we would consider significant there.

但是，不，與拉丁美洲無關。他們顯然能夠繼續做他們需要做的事情。但如您所知，我們從拉丁美洲採購了相當多的產品。成本上升了，但我們沒有任何我們認為重要的東西。

We'll go to our next question from Javier Escalante with Evercore ISI.

我們將回答 Javier Escalante 和 Evercore ISI 的下一個問題。

(inaudible) 2 things that it would be helpful because -- and it's building on Lauren's question. This is that it feels that your supply chain is very global. And when you speak about Colgate, you talk about toothpaste and not toothbrushes. And then the problem in Latin America seems to be that you have problems sourcing toothbrushes out of Asia and toothpaste in the U.S. (inaudible) of Mexico. So I think that there is a little bit of a disconnect between our understanding of the supply chain and your conversation.

（聽不清）有兩件事會有所幫助，因為 - 它建立在 Lauren 的問題之上。這就是感覺你的供應鍊是非常全球化的。當您談論高露潔時，您談論的是牙膏而不是牙刷。然後拉丁美洲的問題似乎是您在從亞洲採購牙刷和在美國（聽不清）墨西哥採購牙膏時遇到問題。所以我認為我們對供應鏈的理解和你的談話之間有一點脫節。

So if you could clarify, in the U.S., what are the supply chain issues? Is it that Mexico is not delivering into the U.S.? And then in Latin America, is it that toothbrushes in Asia are now coming through into Latin America? And finally, in Latin America, you basically said that you had no supply chain issues, but volumes dropped. So why is the drop? Because if you think about Procter and Unilever, they grew organic sales in Latin America in 16%, so the consumer seems to be fine. So what is that -- why is it that Latin America is lagging your competitors?

所以，如果你能澄清一下，在美國，供應鏈問題是什麼？是墨西哥不向美國發貨嗎？然後在拉丁美洲，亞洲的牙刷現在是否正在進入拉丁美洲？最後，在拉丁美洲，你們基本上說你們沒有供應鏈問題，但數量下降了。那麼為什麼會下降呢？因為如果你想想寶潔和聯合利華，他們在拉丁美洲的有機銷售額增長了 16%，所以消費者似乎還不錯。那是什麼——為什麼拉丁美洲落後於你的競爭對手？

Sure. Okay. Let me address the supply chain first. Toothbrushes, first and foremost, is a global supply chain we source predominantly out of Asia as well as some sourcing out of Latin America. Obviously, given the lockdowns that we saw in Asia in 2021 and subsequently having an impact in the first quarter that impacted most of our global toothbrush business around the world, more acutely here in the U.S., where we have taken decisions in the fourth quarter and in the first quarter to ensure that we accelerated migration of those toothbrushes when supply came back online, back into refill inventories and improve on-shelf ability. So we had issues there, particularly for North America, where we're having to bring product in expediently in order to fulfill demand. That impacted some of our sourcing -- some of our toothbrush business likewise in Latin America, likewise in Europe, but it was more acutely faced by the North America business, and we addressed that.

當然。好的。讓我先談談供應鏈。首先，牙刷是一個全球供應鏈，我們主要從亞洲採購，部分從拉丁美洲採購。顯然，鑑於我們在 2021 年在亞洲看到的封鎖以及隨後在第一季度產生的影響，影響了我們在全球的大部分全球牙刷業務，尤其是在美國，我們在第四季度和在第一季度，以確保我們在供應恢復在線時加速這些牙刷的遷移，重新補充庫存並提高上架能力。所以我們在那裡遇到了問題，特別是在北美，我們必須方便地把產品帶到那里以滿足需求。這影響了我們的一些採購——我們的一些牙刷業務同樣在拉丁美洲，同樣在歐洲，但北美業務面臨的更為嚴峻，我們解決了這個問題。

Our toothpaste business historically has been a balance of a global supply chain that works very, very efficiently. Given some of the challenges that we had in the North America, we were bringing more product out of Mexico, they were fulfilling increased demand for our product. It came into additional costs. Obviously, as we talked about earlier, that freight rates out of Mexico increased. We did have some delays getting product across the border at times, but that was not a function of our problem, it was a function of what was happening systemically across the marketplace.

從歷史上看，我們的牙膏業務一直是全球供應鏈的平衡點，運作非常高效。鑑於我們在北美遇到的一些挑戰，我們將更多產品從墨西哥帶出，它們滿足了對我們產品不斷增長的需求。它產生了額外的費用。顯然，正如我們之前所說，從墨西哥運出的運費上漲了。有時，我們確實在將產品運送到邊境時遇到了一些延遲，但這不是我們的問題的原因，而是整個市場系統性發生的事情的原因。

So our toothpaste supply chain is global. It has been a competitive advantage for us for years and years. We're able to now transfer products from one market to another quite consistently and quite efficiently. But as you have delays in one market or supplier implications in one market, it obviously creates a little bit of a bottleneck for you. We have taken decisions to ensure that we are having locations that are efficiently sourcing local markets where needed. And I think today, we're in a much better position than we have been in the past related to dealing with the uncertainty of the supply chain network that exists in the world that we live in today.

所以我們的牙膏供應鍊是全球性的。多年來，這一直是我們的競爭優勢。我們現在能夠非常一致且非常有效地將產品從一個市場轉移到另一個市場。但是，由於您在一個市場中存在延遲或對一個市場的供應商影響，這顯然會給您造成一點瓶頸。我們已做出決定，以確保我們的地點能夠在需要的地方有效地採購當地市場。我認為今天，我們在處理我們今天生活的世界中存在的供應鍊網絡的不確定性方面比過去處於更好的位置。

So overall, we think we're in a good place. On volumes for Latin America, listen, the only real shortfall in volumes for us in Latin America was Brazil. We took high double-digit pricing, 15% pricing in that market. We saw volumes come off a little bit, which historically has been consistent with what we've seen. We've take significant pricing. Mexico had positive pricing, positive volumes across the board. So I would really attribute it to some of the softness we saw in Brazil because the rest of the business is okay, and we'll see how Brazil unfolds. But this is quite consistent with what we've seen in the past when we've taken significant pricing.

所以總的來說，我們認為我們處於一個好地方。關於拉丁美洲的銷量，聽著，對我們來說，拉丁美洲唯一真正的銷量不足是巴西。我們採取了兩位數的高定價，在那個市場上定價為 15%。我們看到交易量有所下降，這在歷史上與我們所看到的一致。我們採取了顯著的定價。墨西哥的定價為正，銷量為正。因此，我真的將其歸因於我們在巴西看到的一些疲軟，因為其他業務都還可以，我們將看看巴西如何發展。但這與我們過去採取重大定價時所看到的情況非常一致。

And we'll take our next question from Mark Astrachan with Stifel.

我們將回答來自 Stifel 的 Mark Astrachan 的下一個問題。

I guess I wanted to go back and try to understand the pricing strategy for '22. So you talked obviously about a big $750 million or so cost headwind in January, which has obviously gotten bigger, but it was still a big number back then. It seems others were a bit more proactive, at least it seems to me, more proactive and got stronger pricing earlier in the year. And I guess your comment to gross margin for you all was better than guided, but it was still down a lot.

我想我想回去嘗試了解 22 年的定價策略。因此，您顯然談到了 1 月份 7.5 億美元左右的巨大成本逆風，這顯然已經變得更大，但在當時仍然是一個很大的數字。似乎其他人更積極一些，至少在我看來，更積極主動並且在今年早些時候獲得了更強的定價。而且我猜你對你們所有人的毛利率的評論都比指導的要好，但它仍然下降了很多。

So I guess I'm curious, was there a volume calculus in your decision to seemingly lag some peers on pricing. And now that you're taking more price, how should we be thinking about volumes relative to pricing for '22? In other words, kind of what has changed or how do we think about the change in your assumptions there. So if you could talk about the decision kind of first of all, whether that's right or not and then how we think about the volume change as a result.

所以我想我很好奇，在您決定在定價方面似乎落後於一些同行時，是否存在數量計算。既然你正在採取更多的價格，我們應該如何考慮相對於 22 年定價的數量？換句話說，發生了什麼變化，或者我們如何看待你的假設的變化。因此，如果您可以首先談論決策類型，無論這是否正確，然後是我們如何看待由此產生的交易量變化。

Yes. What happened in the first quarter, obviously, as we saw a little bit of delays in our pricing execution in Europe, which I mentioned earlier in the prepared remarks, given some of the annual negotiations and ultimately how those unfolded, the good news is those are behind us as we exited the quarter, and we will see that pricing fully reflected as we move into the second quarter.

是的。顯然，第一季度發生了什麼，因為我們看到我們在歐洲的定價執行出現了一些延遲，我在之前準備好的評論中提到了這一點，考慮到一些年度談判以及最終如何展開，好消息是那些當我們退出本季度時，我們已經落後了，我們將看到定價在我們進入第二季度時得到充分體現。

We were a little late in the U.S. arguably, I think, in terms of how we saw things, but we did lead pricing in our core business ahead of competition. We have seen competition ultimately follow, but we did lead in the U.S. So we felt like we got to have it pretty quickly, but obviously, the costs moved a little bit beyond what we expected. So coming back to gross margin, we were kind of more in line with where we thought. We thought we would see most of the pricing come through in the back half of the quarter, which would obviously deliver accelerated sequential gross margin through the balance of the year. That was the initial assumption. But obviously, all things changed when the February-March -- mid-February, March cost increases came through. We have now subsequently taken more pricing, we will be taking more pricing in developing part of the world as we move through the balance of the year. And we're also looking at obviously accelerated pricing, particularly through relaunches in the developed part of the world as we move through the back half.

我認為，就我們看待事物的方式而言，可以說我們在美國有點晚了，但我們確實在競爭之前領先於核心業務的定價。我們已經看到競爭最終接踵而至，但我們確實在美國領先。所以我們覺得我們必須很快擁有它，但顯然，成本有點超出我們的預期。所以回到毛利率，我們有點更符合我們的想法。我們認為我們會在本季度後半段看到大部分定價，這顯然會在今年餘下時間提供加速的連續毛利率。這是最初的假設。但很明顯，當 2 月至 3 月——2 月中旬、3 月的成本增加時，一切都發生了變化。我們現在隨後採取了更多定價，隨著我們在今年餘下時間的推移，我們將在世界發展中地區採取更多定價。而且我們還在考慮明顯加快定價，特別是通過在世界發達地區重新啟動，因為我們正在經歷後半部分。

We'll go to our next question from Kevin Grundy with Jefferies.

我們將與 Jefferies 一起回答 Kevin Grundy 的下一個問題。

Noel, I think we covered a lot of this. I wanted to kind of pick up on Lauren's question and some others. Just the degree of the downward revision of your outlook versus peers and even more broadly staples, so everyone can appreciate how challenging the environment is. It's not lost in anyone for a moment. But it's difficult for everyone, right, at the same time.

諾埃爾，我想我們涵蓋了很多。我想了解一下 Lauren 的問題和其他一些問題。只是你的前景與同行甚至更廣泛的主食相比向下修正的程度，所以每個人都可以理解環境的挑戰性。它不會在任何人身上消失片刻。但這對每個人來說都很困難，對，同時。

So without being redundant because you spend a lot of time on the cost headwinds and supply chain issues, but what do you feel like is materially different about your business, product categories, commodity basket, the speed or scope with which you can move on pricing, supply chain, scope of productivity savings, controls around FP&A and your stance on conservatism in guidance. As you look at that relative to the peers, which I know you guys are following closely, what do you think is very unique about your business that's causing a sharper downward revision than we've seen elsewhere?

因此，不要因為您在成本逆風和供應鏈問題上花費大量時間而變得多餘，但是您認為您的業務、產品類別、商品籃子、定價的速度或範圍有很大不同、供應鏈、生產力節省的範圍、圍繞 FP&A 的控制以及您在指導中對保守主義的立場。當您與同行相比時，我知道你們正在密切關注這一點，您認為您的業務有什麼非常獨特的地方，導致比我們在其他地方看到的更大幅度的向下修正？

Sure. Thanks, Kevin. Listen, I think we stated it upfront. What is uniquely different for us right now is obviously the significant move we've seen in fats and oils. And that is a significant part of our cost structure of our business in addition to things that have moved up quite significantly that historically have been quite benign relative to our cost of goods, things like glycerin, which have doubled in pricing. So fats and oils is the big driver here. We are assuming that those costs will stay at the current levels and slightly increase through the balance of the year.

當然。謝謝，凱文。聽著，我想我們已經提前說明了。現在對我們來說獨特的不同顯然是我們在脂肪和油中看到的重大變化。這是我們業務成本結構的重要組成部分，此外還有一些相對於我們的商品成本而言歷史上相當良性的東西，比如甘油，價格已經翻了一番。所以脂肪和油是這裡的主要驅動力。我們假設這些成本將保持在當前水平，並在今年餘下時間略有增加。

I don't know how others have assumed that. As a result, we have seen -- we've taken oil more or less at current levels with a slight increase through the balance of the year. That may be a different assumption that others have taken. And we obviously have the logistics on cost given our -- the short-term implications of our global supply chain, which we ultimately think as we move into 2023, will move behind us. So that's predominantly the biggest difference. We have very strong brands that allow us to take pricing. You have seen that consistently year in, year out, our ability to take pricing, particularly in the developing part of the world, and we will continue to execute against that, but we will watch the consumer environment very carefully.

我不知道其他人是如何假設的。結果，我們已經看到——我們在當前水平上或多或少地使用了石油，並在今年餘下時間略有增加。這可能是其他人所採取的不同假設。考慮到我們的全球供應鏈的短期影響，我們顯然有成本上的物流，我們最終認為，隨著我們進入 2023 年，它將落後於我們。所以這主要是最大的區別。我們擁有非常強大的品牌，可以讓我們定價。您已經年復一年地看到我們定價的能力，特別是在世界的發展中地區，我們將繼續執行這一點，但我們將非常仔細地觀察消費者環境。

We are maintaining our investments in the business. That's very important for us to continue to accelerate the top line growth. That's hence why we feel good about the 4% to 6% organic, given that we will be maintaining our investments in that piece. So it's really that. Our logistics -- our overhead structure, just to talk to that, we have the global productivity initiative, as you know, that we've launched. We're accelerating the savings in that through the back half of this year. Our operating costs or just our direct overheads were actually down in the quarter, which, again, we'll get the leverage from that as we move and accelerate sales through the back half of the year.

我們正在維持對業務的投資。這對我們繼續加速收入增長非常重要。這就是為什麼我們對 4% 到 6% 的有機產品感覺良好的原因，因為我們將維持對這部分的投資。所以真的是這樣。我們的物流——我們的間接費用結構，順便說一下，我們有全球生產力計劃，如你所知，我們已經啟動了。今年下半年，我們正在加速節省開支。我們的運營成本或直接管理費用實際上在本季度有所下降，我們將再次獲得槓桿作用，因為我們將在今年下半年移動並加速銷售。

But the biggest difference is we're assuming a continued -- a very, very costly inflationary environment through the balance of the year. We don't see that changing at this point. I'm not sure the assumptions that others have made or whether they made any assumptions at this stage, but we feel it's prudent for the business to create the visibility that you need that we're assuming, those costs will continue to be at current levels or slightly above.

但最大的不同是我們假設在今年餘下時間裡，通脹環境會持續——一個非常非常昂貴的通脹環境。在這一點上，我們沒有看到這種變化。我不確定其他人所做的假設或他們是否在此階段做出了任何假設，但我們認為，對於企業來說，創建您需要的可見性是謹慎的做法，我們假設，這些成本將繼續保持在當前水平水平或略高於。

Our last question from Andrea Teixeira with JPMorgan.

我們最後一個問題來自摩根大通的 Andrea Teixeira。

Just on the Brazil comment, I understand like you mentioned Noel that the pricing and the -- there was some price elasticity. I was just hoping if you can touch, was it more on the personal care side or oral care? Or what are your plans to kind of make it perhaps more competitive given that the currencies -- went to your favor, I think that's the good news there.

就巴西的評論而言，我知道就像你提到的 Noel 一樣，定價和 - 存在一定的價格彈性。我只是希望你能觸摸一下，是個人護理還是口腔護理？或者考慮到貨幣對你有利，你有什麼計劃讓它更具競爭力，我認為這是個好消息。

Is there any ways of trying to defend the share -- the volume share given that you probably took pricing more in dollar terms than you would appreciate at that point.

有沒有什麼方法可以保護份額——考慮到你可能以美元計價的定價比你當時所欣賞的要高，所以數量份額。

Sure. Listen, it's early days. We obviously took pricing very, very quickly, as I mentioned, we saw volumes come off a little bit in the business. And it was quite frankly, more in the personal (technical difficulty) our market shares in toothpaste are actually up 20 basis points in Brazil.

當然。聽著，現在還早。正如我所提到的，我們顯然非常非常迅速地定價，我們看到業務量有所下降。坦率地說，更多的是在個人（技術難度）方面，我們在巴西的牙膏市場份額實際上上升了 20 個基點。

So overall, we've seen -- again, coming back to the core strategy, we've relaunched our Sorriso business, which is performing very well in the market. We launched Colgate Total, which is performing well in the market, and you've heard us talk about elmex. So market shares are actually up. We'll see -- we'll watch that very closely, but we feel pretty good about where we are, but we've got pricing in the P&L.

所以總的來說，我們已經看到——再次回到核心戰略，我們重新啟動了我們的 Sorriso 業務，該業務在市場上表現非常好。我們推出了在市場上表現良好的 Colgate Total，您聽說過我們談論 elmex。所以市場份額實際上是上漲的。我們會看到 - 我們會非常密切地觀察，但我們對我們所處的位置感覺很好，但我們已經在損益表中定價。

We anticipate that, obviously, competition will follow, given our leadership position in the marketplace, but that will be up for them to decide. But we feel good about where we are. And the volumes, historically, when we've taken pricing at these levels are more or less consistent in terms of the falloff that we would have expected.

鑑於我們在市場上的領導地位，我們預計，很明顯，競爭將隨之而來，但這將由他們來決定。但我們對自己所處的位置感覺良好。從歷史上看，當我們在這些水平上定價時，就我們預期的下降而言，交易量或多或少是一致的。

That concludes today's question-and-answer session. Noel, I'll turn the call back to for any additional or closing remarks.

今天的問答環節到此結束。諾埃爾，我會將電話轉回以獲取任何附加或結束語。

No. Thanks, everyone. Let me again extend my appreciation to all Colgate people. Let me specifically call out our employees in the Ukraine, who -- our thoughts and prayers are with you, and we continue to support you and your health and your safety with all the possible opportunities that we can provide you. Thanks, everyone. We'll talk soon.

不，謝謝大家。讓我再次向所有高露潔人表示感謝。讓我特別呼籲我們在烏克蘭的員工——我們的思念和祈禱與你們同在，我們將繼續通過我們可以為您提供的所有可能的機會來支持您以及您的健康和安全。感謝大家。我們很快就會談。

This concludes today's call. Thank you for your participation. You may now disconnect.

今天的電話會議到此結束。感謝您的參與。您現在可以斷開連接。