高露潔 (CL) 2022 Q4 法說會逐字稿

Good morning. Welcome to today's Colgate-Palmolive 2022 Fourth Quarter and Year-End Earnings Conference Call. This call is being recorded and is being simulcast live at www.colgatepalmolive.com.

早上好。歡迎來到今天的 Colgate-Palmolive 2022 年第四季度和年終收益電話會議。此通話正在錄音中，並在 www.colgatepalmolive.com 上進行現場直播。

Now for opening remarks, I'd like to turn this call over to Chief Investor Relations Officer and Senior Vice President, M&A, John Faucher.

現在開始致辭，我想把這個電話轉給首席投資者關係官兼併購高級副總裁 John Faucher。

Thanks, Alison. Good morning, and welcome to our 2022 Fourth Quarter and Full Year Earnings Release Conference Call. This is John Faucher.

謝謝，艾莉森。早上好，歡迎來到我們的 2022 年第四季度和全年收益發布電話會議。這是約翰·福徹。

Today's conference call will include forward-looking statements. Actual results could differ materially from these statements. Please refer to the earnings press release and related prepared materials in our most recent filings with the SEC, including our 2021 annual report on Form 10-K and subsequent SEC filings, all available on Colgate's website for a discussion of the factors that could cause actual results to differ materially from these statements. This conference call will also include a discussion of non-GAAP financial measures, including those identified in Tables 8 and 9 of the earnings press release. A full reconciliation to the corresponding GAAP financial measures is included in the earnings press release and is available on Colgate's website.

今天的電話會議將包括前瞻性陳述。實際結果可能與這些陳述存在重大差異。請參閱我們最近向美國證券交易委員會提交的文件中的收益新聞稿和相關準備材料，包括我們關於 10-K 表格的 2021 年年度報告和隨後向美國證券交易委員會提交的文件，所有這些都可以在高露潔的網站上找到，以討論可能導致實際情況的因素結果與這些陳述大不相同。本次電話會議還將討論非 GAAP 財務指標，包括收益新聞稿表 8 和表 9 中確定的指標。與相應的 GAAP 財務措施的全面對賬包含在收益新聞稿中，並可在高露潔的網站上查閱。

Joining me on the call this morning are Noel Wallace, Chairman, President and Chief Executive Officer; and Stan Sutula, Chief Financial Officer. Noel will provide you with his thoughts on our Q4 results and our 2023 outlook. We will then open it up for Q&A. Noel?

今天早上和我一起參加電話會議的還有董事長、總裁兼首席執行官諾埃爾·華萊士 (Noel Wallace)；和首席財務官 Stan Sutula。 Noel 將為您提供他對我們第四季度業績和 2023 年展望的看法。然後我們將打開它進行問答。諾爾？

Thanks, John, and thank you all for joining us this morning, and I wish all of you a very Happy New Year. So I mostly wanted to focus on the year ahead today as I think we are well positioned to deliver strong results in 2023, even as we plan for a difficult macroeconomic environment and continued uncertainty.

謝謝約翰，感謝大家今天早上加入我們，祝大家新年快樂。因此，我今天主要想關注未來一年，因為我認為我們有能力在 2023 年取得強勁業績，即使我們計劃應對艱難的宏觀經濟環境和持續的不確定性。

That said, as we mentioned in the prepared remarks, we're pleased with the progress we made in 2022. We delivered organic sales growth in all 4 of our categories, including double-digit organic sales growth in Pet Nutrition and high single-digit organic growth in Oral Care. '22 was our fourth straight year of delivering organic sales growth either in line or ahead of our 3% to 5% long-term target range, and we delivered within or ahead of that range in every quarter over that time period, 16 consecutive quarters in all.

也就是說，正如我們在準備好的評論中提到的，我們對我們在 2022 年取得的進展感到滿意。我們在所有 4 個類別中實現了有機銷售增長，包括寵物營養的兩位數有機銷售增長和高個位數的有機銷售增長口腔護理業務的有機增長。 '22 年是我們連續第四年實現有機銷售增長，達到或超過我們 3% 至 5% 的長期目標範圍，我們在那個時期的每個季度都實現了或超過該範圍，連續 16 個季度在所有。

And it's the continuing strengthening of our strategy that has allowed us to grow consistently through different operating environments as each year has presented its own challenges and its opportunities. But if we stay focused on driving the core, leveraging our capabilities across our portfolio, innovating in faster growth adjacencies and tapping into faster-growth channels and markets, we will continue to grow.

正是不斷加強我們的戰略，使我們能夠在不同的運營環境中持續發展，因為每年都有自己的挑戰和機遇。但如果我們繼續專注於推動核心業務，利用我們在整個產品組合中的能力，在更快增長的鄰接領域進行創新，並開拓更快增長的渠道和市場，我們將繼續增長。

And in 2023, as we continue to execute on our strategy, we expect to accelerate earnings growth and generate incremental cash flow to drive shareholder value. Why are we well positioned for this year despite all of the uncertainty in the world today? It starts with our portfolio. We operate in 4 highly focused categories. Growing categories that consumers use everyday and where they look to trusted brands to help themselves and their pets lead healthier lives.

到 2023 年，隨著我們繼續執行我們的戰略，我們預計將加速盈利增長並產生增量現金流以推動股東價值。儘管當今世界充滿不確定性，但為什麼我們今年仍處於有利地位？它從我們的投資組合開始。我們在 4 個高度集中的類別中運營。消費者每天使用的品類不斷增加，他們希望通過值得信賴的品牌幫助自己和寵物過上更健康的生活。

The focus on healthier lives means these consumers are motivated by science-driven innovation with professional endorsement, which is an area of particular strength for us. And the importance of trust in our categories helps keep private label penetration relatively low and allows for premiumization behind differentiated benefits. And within these categories, we have strong market shares. With most of our revenues coming from brands that have a #1 or #2 market shares on a global basis.

對更健康生活的關注意味著這些消費者受到專業認可的科學驅動創新的激勵，這是我們特別擅長的領域。信任對我們類別的重要性有助於保持自有品牌滲透率相對較低，並允許差異化利益背後的溢價化。在這些類別中，我們擁有強大的市場份額。我們的大部分收入來自在全球範圍內擁有#1 或#2 市場份額的品牌。

The second reason is our focus on building, sharing and scaling capabilities to drive growth. I will continue to talk about our digital transformation as it impacts everything we do. This year, we benefited from continued efficiencies in our digital media spending through data-driven modeling. Our efforts on innovation need to deliver over the long term, not just the launch year, and we have shifted our resources to deliver more breakthrough and transformational innovation.

第二個原因是我們專注於構建、共享和擴展能力以推動增長。我將繼續談論我們的數字化轉型，因為它會影響我們所做的一切。今年，我們受益於通過數據驅動建模持續提高數字媒體支出的效率。我們在創新方面的努力需要長期交付，而不僅僅是推出年，我們已經轉移資源以提供更多突破性和轉型創新。

In our prepared commentary, we talked about the share gains we're seeing in the whitening segment of the toothpaste category. It's a long-term strategy of launching Optic White Renewal and then Optic White Pro Series in the U.S. or our new MPS whitening technology we're launching around the world, which leverages our superior R&D capabilities to drive long-term share growth. And on top of that, we continue to launch at-home whitening and professional whitening products to enhance our credibility and expand our presence in the premium segment. And our focus on building revenue growth management capabilities, particularly through increased use of data and analytics is driving our pricing growth in ways beyond just list price increases.

在我們準備好的評論中，我們談到了我們在牙膏類別的美白部分看到的份額增長。這是一項長期戰略，在美國推出 Optic White Renewal 和 Optic White Pro 系列，或者我們在全球推出新的 MPS 美白技術，利用我們卓越的研發能力來推動長期份額增長。除此之外，我們繼續推出家用美白和專業美白產品，以提高我們的信譽並擴大我們在高端市場的影響力。我們專注於建立收入增長管理能力，特別是通過增加數據和分析的使用，這正在推動我們的價格增長，而不僅僅是標價上漲。

And the third reason is our strong balance sheet. Our combined financial resources provide us the flexibility to reinvest in our portfolio or pursue value-enhancing acquisitions like our pet food acquisitions, which enables us to drive faster growth.

第三個原因是我們強大的資產負債表。我們的綜合財務資源使我們能夠靈活地對我們的投資組合進行再投資或進行寵物食品收購等增值收購，這使我們能夠推動更快的增長。

The final reason we are well positioned is the efforts we have put into offsetting the extraordinary cost increases we have seen over the past several years. We have driven consistent pricing, and we look to take additional pricing in the first half of this year.

我們處於有利地位的最後一個原因是我們為抵消過去幾年中看到的異常成本增長所做的努力。我們推動了一致的定價，我們希望在今年上半年採取額外的定價。

Our Funding the Growth program delivered another strong year in 2022, and we expect even higher levels of savings in 2023. We announced our global productivity initiative 1 year ago, and we began to see the benefits in our numbers in the second half of 2022. We expect even greater savings in 2023 to help fund investment and drive operating margin expansion.

我們的 Funding the Growth 計劃在 2022 年再次取得強勁表現，我們預計 2023 年的儲蓄水平會更高。我們在一年前宣布了全球生產力計劃，並在 2022 年下半年開始看到我們的數字帶來的好處。我們預計 2023 年將節省更多資金，以幫助為投資提供資金並推動營業利潤率增長。

So we believe we are well prepared for 2023, but there's still a lot of uncertainty in the world. The macroeconomic environment outlook remains volatile, which can impact consumer spending. China remains a question mark as the country emerges from COVID lockdowns. While raw materials and foreign exchange remain headwinds, they look less onerous now. But as we learned last year, that can change quickly. So we head into 2023 with top line momentum and a proven strategy, with the right brands, the right capabilities, and the right efficiency drivers to deliver top line growth and improve our bottom-line performance.

所以我們相信我們已經為 2023 年做好了充分的準備，但世界上仍然存在很多不確定性。宏觀經濟環境前景仍然不穩定，這可能會影響消費者支出。隨著該國擺脫 COVID 封鎖，中國仍然是一個問號。雖然原材料和外匯仍然是不利因素，但它們現在看起來不那麼繁重了。但正如我們去年了解到的那樣，這種情況可能會迅速改變。因此，我們帶著頂線動力和行之有效的戰略進入 2023 年，借助合適的品牌、合適的能力和合適的效率驅動因素來實現頂線增長並提高我們的底線績效。

And with that, I'll turn it over to questions.

有了這個，我會把它交給問題。

(Operator Instructions) And our first question today will come from Dara Mohsenian from Morgan Stanley.

（操作員說明）我們今天的第一個問題將來自摩根士丹利的 Dara Mohsenian。

I just wanted to touch on the organic sales growth guidance for next year coming off a strong Q4 result and the strong pricing we're seeing. I'm assuming more than all of that perhaps is driven by pricing and volumes will be down slightly. A, maybe is that correct? And then b, it'd just be helpful to get a bit of commentary on each of those areas. What are you seeing from a competitive standpoint on the pricing front? And then b, as you think about volume and the demand elasticity you're seeing from a consumer standpoint to pricing, any changes sequentially at all? And how are you feeling about that front heading into 2023 here?

我只想談談明年第四季度強勁業績和我們看到的強勁定價的有機銷售增長指導。我假設更多的可能是由定價驅動的，而且銷量會略有下降。 A，也許這是正確的？然後 b，獲得對每個領域的一些評論會很有幫助。從定價方面的競爭角度來看，您有何看法？然後 b，當您考慮從消費者的角度到定價的數量和需求彈性時，是否有任何順序變化？您對進入 2023 年的前線感覺如何？

Yes. Thanks, Dara. So again, let's recap quickly. Obviously, the strong top line growth or organic growth that we've seen across the business, we're very pleased, obviously, with finishing the year with strong momentum. Obviously, the pricing that we put into the P&L, particularly if you look on a 2-year stack basis, up to 15.5%, so sequentially up as we moved out of the quarter. So we've continued to take a lot of pricing and we will continue to see the benefits of that as we move into 2023. Volume continues to be a challenge across the world, as you've heard, I think, throughout the earnings season, categories have pulled back, and that's expected given the magnitude of pricing that we've seen go into all geographies around the world. Our sense is, we'll see continued pricing in the first half of this year, which we think will have a drag on volumes for the categories that we've seen, particularly in the back half of this year, but that will begin to improve in the second half of the year.

是的。謝謝，達拉。所以，讓我們快速回顧一下。顯然，我們在整個業務中看到的強勁的收入增長或有機增長，我們很高興以強勁的勢頭結束了這一年。顯然，我們在損益表中的定價，特別是如果你以 2 年的堆棧為基礎來看，高達 15.5%，所以隨著我們離開這個季度而連續上升。因此，我們繼續採取大量定價，並且隨著我們進入 2023 年，我們將繼續看到這樣做的好處。正如你所聽到的那樣，我認為，在整個財報季中，銷量仍然是世界範圍內的一個挑戰，品類有所回落，考慮到我們已經看到全球所有地區的定價規模，這是意料之中的事情。我們的感覺是，我們將在今年上半年看到持續的定價，我們認為這將拖累我們所看到的類別的銷量，尤其是在今年下半年，但這將開始下半年有所改善。

I think the other aspect on the organic guidance is really a question mark on the economic vibrance of the various markets around the world. We've seen Europe obviously under significant pressure with double-digit inflation. Categories have been soft. Elasticity is a little bit higher in Europe than the rest of the world. Obviously, China is a big question mark. Infection rates remain high. Yes, a lot of euphoria about China reopening. But as you've seen in the fourth quarter, volumes have been very soft in China for the categories in which we compete, and we see that continuing quite frankly, in the first quarter, that will improve as we move through the back half of the year to be sure. But that will bring, I think, a question mark to everyone in terms of uncertainty on where China goes and the impact that has.

我認為有機指導的另一方面確實是對全球各個市場經濟活力的問號。我們已經看到歐洲明顯承受著兩位數通貨膨脹的巨大壓力。類別一直很軟。歐洲的彈性略高於世界其他地區。顯然，中國是一個大大的問號。感染率居高不下。是的，很多人都對中國重新開放感到興奮。但正如您在第四季度所看到的那樣，我們所競爭的類別在中國的銷量一直非常疲軟，我們看到坦率地說，在第一季度，隨著我們進入後半段，這種情況將會有所改善可以確定的年份。但我認為，就中國走向何方及其產生的影響的不確定性而言，這會給每個人打上問號。

Pricing will need to continue to go through the categories in the first half of this year. As we announced in the prepared remarks, we will be taking more pricing, and there's a real question mark, given the magnitude of the pricing that we've seen in the back half of 2022 and the pricing implementation in 2023, the impact that we'll have on the consumer.

定價將需要在今年上半年繼續通過類別進行。正如我們在準備好的評論中宣布的那樣，我們將採取更多定價，考慮到我們在 2022 年下半年看到的定價規模和 2023 年的定價實施，我們將產生的影響是一個真正的問號就會對消費者產生影響。

So far, if I give an overarching comment on elasticities, they've been very much in line with where we've expected. So overall, we think we feel good about the organic range. We feel very confident that we're within that range. And if things continue to stay where they are, and we continue to see the share growth that we're seeing across the world and the response to our innovation, hopefully, we can be at the top end of that range or better.

到目前為止，如果我對彈性給出一個總體評論，它們與我們的預期非常一致。所以總的來說，我們認為我們對有機系列感覺很好。我們非常有信心我們在這個範圍內。如果事情繼續保持原樣，並且我們繼續看到我們在世界各地看到的份額增長以及對我們創新的反應，希望我們能夠處於該範圍的頂端或更好。

Our next question today will come from Andrea Teixeira with JPMorgan.

我們今天的下一個問題將來自摩根大通的 Andrea Teixeira。

So I have a broader question on volumes. On this minus 4% globally, which compares, I guess, favorably to some of your competitors that reported so far. What was the impact of retail destocking, if any, in Filorga? I mean I appreciate you put it in the prepared remarks, obviously impacted more Europe. So I was wondering if you can kind of breach that gap? And also a good segue from your last comments, Noel, on Europe. You have said obviously more pressured. What are the -- and I understand that it was mostly personal care and hand soap. Is there anything you can add to that in terms of like the exit rate and also the exit rate for China?

所以我對卷有一個更廣泛的問題。在全球範圍內這個負 4%，我想，這與迄今為止報告的一些競爭對手相比是有利的。零售去庫存對 Filorga 有何影響？我的意思是我很感激你把它放在準備好的評論中，顯然影響了更多的歐洲。所以我想知道你是否可以突破這個差距？諾埃爾，您最近關於歐洲的評論也很好。你說的明顯壓力更大。是什麼——我知道這主要是個人護理和洗手液。就退出率和中國的退出率而言，您有什麼可以補充的嗎？

Sure. Thanks, Andrea. So let me talk a little bit about volume performance around the world and more sequentially as we went through the quarter. Volume improved in the fourth quarter versus third quarter. And that volume improvement came despite obviously an incremental point of advertising -- excuse me, of pricing, which you saw at 12.5%. So overall, we're pretty pleased.

當然。謝謝，安德里亞。因此，讓我談談全球的銷量表現，以及我們在整個季度中的順序。與第三季度相比，第四季度的銷量有所改善。儘管廣告明顯增加，但價格有所提高——對不起，定價增加了 12.5%。所以總的來說，我們很高興。

Some of the drawbacks on volume, as we discussed in the prepared remarks, obviously, Skin Health had a challenging quarter from inventory reductions, particularly in the online world. We saw those inventory reductions, particularly here in the North America business and obviously, a significant inventory and volume softness in China due to COVID on the Filorga business. So that really pulled down quite a bit of the volume. You obviously have the Russia impact, which we would quantify to roughly around 30 basis points.

正如我們在準備好的評論中所討論的那樣，數量上的一些缺點顯然是 Skin Health 因庫存減少而面臨挑戰的季度，尤其是在網絡世界中。我們看到了這些庫存減少，特別是在北美業務，顯然，由於 COVID 對 Filorga 業務的影響，中國的庫存和銷量明顯疲軟。所以這真的降低了相當多的音量。你顯然有俄羅斯的影響，我們將其量化為大約 30 個基點。

Elasticity, as I mentioned early on, we are very much in line and consistent around the world, slightly higher elasticities in Europe, but that should be expected and consistent with history, but very much in line with where we expected. A little bit more inventory reduction in India than we expected, particularly in the rural, as the rural business has not come back nearly as quickly as we anticipated in the fourth quarter. We expect that, though, to come back in 2023.

彈性，正如我前面提到的，我們在世界範圍內非常一致和一致，歐洲的彈性略高，但這應該是預期的並且與歷史一致，但非常符合我們的預期。印度的庫存減少比我們預期的要多一些，尤其是在農村地區，因為農村業務的恢復速度幾乎沒有我們在第四季度預期的那麼快。不過，我們預計它會在 2023 年回歸。

So overall, that was very much driven by some inventory reductions we saw on Skin, a little bit in the (inaudible) trade in the U.S. Likewise, the softness that we saw, a continued softness we saw in the China skincare business. But overall, volumes have improved versus the third quarter and to a certain extent, more or less where we expected. We do not expect a further deceleration of inventory pullback in the U.S. on the Skin business.

所以總的來說，這在很大程度上是由我們在皮膚上看到的一些庫存減少所推動的，在美國的（聽不清）貿易中有一點。同樣，我們看到的疲軟，我們在中國護膚品業務中看到的持續疲軟。但總體而言，與第三季度相比，銷量有所改善，並且在一定程度上或多或少達到了我們的預期。我們預計美國皮膚業務的庫存回撤不會進一步放緩。

So in terms of exit rates for Europe, if I characterize Europe in general, strong share growth across the board and mid- to high single-digit organic sales growth in Oral Care and in Home Care, which, as you rightfully pointed out, was offset by the weakness in Personal Care, which was principally Filorga, China. But overall, shares are strong in Europe. We seem to be getting our pricing through. Negotiations continue to go quite well.

因此，就歐洲的退出率而言，如果我總體上描述歐洲的特徵，口腔護理和家庭護理的整體份額增長強勁以及中高個位數的有機銷售增長，正如您正確指出的那樣，被主要來自中國菲洛嘉的個人護理業務的疲軟所抵消。但總體而言，歐洲的股票表現強勁。我們似乎正在通過定價。談判繼續進行得相當順利。

However, categories have been rather soft in Europe given the amount of pricing that, that market has experienced and the sheer inflation that the European economies are incurring today. So overall, I feel pretty good about Europe. The good news is the shares are strong, and we're getting the pricing through and we feel we're set up for a good year in 2023.

然而，考慮到歐洲市場經歷的定價量以及歐洲經濟體今天發生的嚴重通貨膨脹，歐洲的品類一直相當疲軟。所以總的來說，我對歐洲感覺很好。好消息是股價強勁，我們正在通過定價，我們認為我們已經為 2023 年做好了準備。

Our next question will come from Kaumil Gajrawala from Credit Suisse.

我們的下一個問題將來自瑞士信貸的 Kaumil Gajrawala。

On your commentary on share, you seem quite pleased with share trends. Can you maybe just dig into that a little bit, volume versus value? Are your shares -- do your shares look -- are you equally as happy with your share in volume terms as opposed to in value?

在您對分享的評論中，您似乎對分享趨勢非常滿意。您能否深入研究一下，數量與價值？你的股票——你的股票看起來——你對你的股票數量和價值是否同樣滿意？

Sure. I just characterized Europe, where we felt very good about where we ended up, particularly in Oral Care. North America, as you've seen the data, we are up or flat in 8 to 12 categories. Importantly, very strong Oral Care growth both in the year and in the quarter. So pretty good there. Latin America shares in general are flat, and we feel good about where we are from a Latin America standpoint, given the sheer amount of pricing that we've taken. I think that's a representative of some of the strong innovation that we put into the market in the back half.

當然。我剛剛描述了歐洲，我們對我們最終的目標感覺非常好，特別是在口腔護理方面。北美，正如您所看到的數據，我們在 8 到 12 個類別中處於上升或持平狀態。重要的是，今年和本季度的口腔護理增長都非常強勁。那裡很好。拉丁美洲的股票總體上持平，從拉丁美洲的角度來看，我們對我們所處的位置感到滿意，因為我們已經採取了大量定價。我認為這是我們在後半部分投入市場的一些強大創新的代表。

Asia, I'll characterize it as quite strong, particularly the e-commerce business, a little softness in the brick-and-mortar business. But overall, e-commerce continues to perform very, very well. And Africa, Middle East, strong as well. So overall, we feel very good about the momentum we've had on market shares in value terms.

亞洲，我認為它非常強大，尤其是電子商務業務，實體業務略顯疲軟。但總的來說，電子商務繼續表現得非常非常好。和非洲、中東一樣強大。所以總的來說，我們對我們在價值方面的市場份額勢頭感到非常滿意。

Volume pretty much consistent with that, a little softer, particularly in Europe on the volume side in terms of our volume shares. And that's, I think, response to just the sheer amount of pricing that we've taken in that market.

成交量與此基本一致，略微疲軟，尤其是在歐洲，就我們的成交量份額而言。我認為，這只是對我們在該市場採取的大量定價的回應。

And as I mentioned earlier, obviously, a little softness in the Asia markets on volume, a lot of value going through those markets volume in general in the categories has been quite soft, but our volume shares in Asia seem to be holding up okay.

正如我之前提到的，很明顯，亞洲市場的成交量略有疲軟，這些市場的很多價值在類別中的總體成交量一直相當疲軟，但我們在亞洲的成交量份額似乎保持良好。

The next question is from Chris Carey of Wells Fargo Securities.

下一個問題來自 Wells Fargo Securities 的 Chris Carey。

Noel, if I just take your comments around some incremental pricing, I think you said productivity is expected to accelerate. If I look at raw material outlook of several hundred million, of inflation in Red Collar, the gross margin negative impact should be easing sequentially. I'm coming up with potentially significant gross margin expansion, and I realize reality is often so much different than what we can see in the models. But I wonder if you can just maybe help frame that a bit more for me because it does imply maybe you're leaving some room for investment. But again, perhaps I'm missing something in this -- in the development of the key drivers here. And I wonder if you could just help clarify that a bit more for me.

諾埃爾，如果我只是就一些增量定價發表你的評論，我想你說過生產力有望提高。如果我看紅領通貨膨脹數億的原材料前景，毛利率的負面影響應該會逐步緩解。我想出了潛在的顯著毛利率擴張，我意識到現實往往與我們在模型中看到的大不相同。但我想知道你是否可以幫助我更多地構建它，因為它確實意味著你可能會留下一些投資空間。但是，也許我在這方面遺漏了一些東西——在這里關鍵驅動程序的開發中。我想知道你是否可以幫我澄清一下。

Yes. Let me take the kind of strategically how we position the P&L, particularly around growth and investment. And then I'll let Stan take you through some of the constructs on how we built internally gross margin and operating margins. As you rightfully said, we're really pleased with the operating margin improvement that we're seeing moving through the P&L, and that will continue allowing us to fund more advertising.

是的。讓我從戰略上談談我們如何定位損益，特別是圍繞增長和投資。然後我將讓 Stan 帶您了解我們如何建立內部毛利率和營業利潤率的一些結構。正如您所說的那樣，我們對我們在損益表中看到的營業利潤率提高感到非常滿意，這將繼續讓我們能夠為更多廣告提供資金。

So as the prepared remarks indicated, we intend to continue to invest behind the business, and we've seen great response to the strategy that we've executed over the last couple of years. Obviously, the core adjacencies and channels behind increased investment is driving very strong organic growth in the category and up [$5 to $10] in the quarter despite significant foreign exchange headwinds.

因此，正如準備好的言論所表明的那樣，我們打算繼續投資於該業務，並且我們已經看到對我們在過去幾年中執行的戰略的巨大反響。顯然，增加投資背後的核心鄰接和渠道正在推動該類別非常強勁的有機增長，儘管外匯逆風很大，但本季度仍增長 [5 至 10 美元]。

We talked obviously through the back half of this year, the need to continue to invest in those business once we had more capacity coming online. And that has obviously started to happen in the fourth quarter, and we expect that to obviously continue as we move into 2023. So we will continue to accelerate our investments in the Hill's business in order to reap the benefits of the incremental capacity that we have.

我們在今年下半年顯然討論過，一旦我們有更多產能上線，就需要繼續投資這些業務。這顯然在第四季度開始發生，我們預計隨著我們進入 2023 年，這種情況將明顯繼續。因此，我們將繼續加快對 Hill 業務的投資，以便從我們擁有的增量產能中獲益.

Good momentum on Oral Care and strong innovation and a lot of pricing that we've taken across a broad section of categories, and we want to ensure that we have the investment there to generate -- to get the pricing seated in the marketplace and continue to drive consumption growth for our retailers. So overall, it will be another year of good investment, a good share growth id expected and obviously good top line growth coming through the P&L.

口腔護理的良好勢頭和強大的創新以及我們在廣泛類別中採取的大量定價，我們希望確保我們在那裡有投資來產生——讓定價在市場上佔據一席之地並繼續推動我們零售商的消費增長。因此，總的來說，這將是又一個投資良好的一年，預期的股票增長良好，並且顯然通過損益表實現良好的收入增長。

Let me turn it over to Stan to kind of take you through how we bridged some of the aspects around gross margin and operating margin.

讓我把它交給斯坦，帶你了解我們如何彌合毛利率和營業利潤率的一些方面。

Sure. Thanks, Noel. And on gross profit margin, you started to see some progress, right? North America, Latin America and Africa, Eurasia, you saw improvements in the operating margin in the fourth quarter. As we look at gross profit, Noel highlighted the pricing, that significant flow-through will help in '22. The productivity will be a tailwind here. And while material, and raw and pack in particular, will still be a headwind that moderates coming off of 2022.

當然。謝謝，諾埃爾。在毛利率方面，你開始看到一些進步，對吧？北美、拉丁美洲和非洲、歐亞大陸，您看到第四季度營業利潤率有所提高。當我們查看毛利潤時，Noel 強調了定價，顯著的流量將在 22 年有所幫助。生產力將成為順風。儘管材料，尤其是原材料和包裝材料，在 2022 年之後仍將是緩和的逆風。

So as you look at gross profit margin expansion, that's going to be a benefit. But keep in mind, as you work down, we are going to have investments in advertising. We expect to increase that on a dollars and percent of sales. But also keep in mind, as you go down the income statement that interest expense is going to be up year-to-year. That's driven predominantly by increase in rates and also by slightly increased debt levels as we carry Red Collar in for the full year.

因此，當您查看毛利率擴張時，這將是一個好處。但請記住，隨著您的努力，我們將對廣告進行投資。我們希望增加銷售額的美元和百分比。但也請記住，隨著損益表的下降，利息支出將逐年上升。這主要是由於利率上升以及債務水平略有增加，因為我們全年都在使用紅領。

And also taxes. So taxes around the world, in particular in recessionary environments, potentially being out there, we expect our tax position will be slightly higher on a year-on-year basis. So while the operating margin or EBIT margin, we expect will be up nicely. That will be partially offset by interest and taxes, delivering low to mid-single-digit EPS growth.

還有稅收。因此，世界各地的稅收，特別是在經濟衰退的環境中，可能存在，我們預計我們的稅收狀況將同比略高。因此，雖然營業利潤率或息稅前利潤率，我們預計會很好。這將被利息和稅收部分抵消，從而實現中低個位數的每股收益增長。

Our next question today will come from Peter Grom of UBS.

我們今天的下一個問題將來自瑞銀的 Peter Grom。

So I wanted to ask on the gross margin as well, which for the quarter was a bit of a surprise. So in your prepared remarks, you mentioned a number of key drivers as to why it came in below your expectations. But can you maybe unpack where the biggest variance was, whether it'd be sales mix, commodities versus some of these start-up costs and manufacturing variances.

所以我也想問一下毛利率，這個季度的毛利率有點令人驚訝。因此，在您準備好的發言中，您提到了一些關鍵驅動因素，說明為什麼它低於您的預期。但是你能不能解開最大差異的地方，無論是銷售組合、商品還是其中一些啟動成本和製造差異。

And then just maybe following up on Chris' question. When we think about the path forward, you mentioned several hundred million dollars of inflation for raw materials and packaging. Is there any way to kind of frame that? Is that $300 million to $400 million? Is it something higher? I just think it's kind of important to understand kind of the gross margin bridge as we think about next year.

然後也許只是跟進Chris 的問題。當我們考慮前進的道路時，您提到了原材料和包裝的數億美元通貨膨脹。有什麼方法可以構建它嗎？那是 3 億到 4 億美元嗎？是更高的東西嗎？我只是認為了解我們明年考慮的毛利率橋樑是很重要的。

Sure. As you saw in the fourth quarter, obviously, a continued difficult environment in terms of raw material inflation, another 900 basis points on top of what we had in the third quarter in terms of a headwind on gross profit. A good percentage of that continues to be ag prices, which obviously have continued to move south on us. And in fact, if you look at the first half versus second half, Peter, ag prices were up 25%. So obviously, that continued to impact the Hill's business.

當然。正如您在第四季度所看到的那樣，很明顯，就原材料通脹而言，環境持續艱難，就毛利潤的逆風而言，我們在第三季度的基礎上又增加了 900 個基點。其中很大一部分仍然是農業價格，顯然在我們身上繼續向南移動。事實上，如果你看看上半年與下半年的對比，彼得，農產品價格上漲了 25%。很明顯，這繼續影響著希爾的業務。

On top of that, as we integrated the 3 Red Collar facilities and began transitioning some of the high-capacity volumes business that we had in our own plants, we obviously incurred some start-up costs and some variances moving through the P&L that obviously impacted margin in the quarter as well. And then I'd also characterize as I mentioned, that obviously the inventory reductions we saw in Skin Health and the drag from China on the Skin Health business likewise had a mixed impact in the quarter.

最重要的是，當我們整合 3 個 Red Collar 設施並開始轉換我們自己工廠中的一些大容量業務時，我們顯然產生了一些啟動成本和一些明顯影響損益表的差異本季度的利潤率也是如此。然後我也會像我提到的那樣描述，顯然我們在皮膚健康中看到的庫存減少以及來自中國對皮膚健康業務的拖累同樣在本季度產生了混合影響。

With that, let me turn it over to Stan to see if he has any more information in terms of how we want to characterize how we're thinking about raw materials for next year.

有了這個，讓我把它交給斯坦，看看他是否有更多關於我們想要如何描述我們對明年原材料的看法的信息。

Yes. The raw materials continue, as Noel highlighted, to be a headwind for us. And your range is probably in the right ballpark here as you think about that on a year-on-year basis. But I would emphasize, it has been volatile. So things have moved up and down pretty significantly here. And in particular, the agriculture and how that applies to Hill's, those have not moderated, up in the second half, as Noel talked about at 25%. And as we look ahead, we think that will continue to be the primary headwind in raw and pack.

是的。正如諾埃爾強調的那樣，原材料繼續成為我們的逆風。當您逐年考慮時，您的範圍可能在正確的範圍內。但我要強調的是，它一直不穩定。所以這裡的事情上下波動很大。特別是農業以及它如何適用於 Hill's，這些在下半年並沒有緩和，正如諾埃爾所說的 25%。展望未來，我們認為這將繼續成為原料和包裝的主要逆風。

The other volatile one is natural gas. Now fortunately, that's been a benefit here in terms of moderating in the late second half and fourth quarter. But we expect that could be volatile as well heading into particularly the back half of '23. So a combination of those 2, primarily, we think are the drivers as you look at raw and pack going into the year.

另一種易揮發的是天然氣。現在幸運的是，就下半年末和第四季度的緩和而言，這是一個好處。但我們預計這可能會波動，尤其是進入 23 年的後半段。因此，我們認為這兩者的結合主要是您在今年看到原始和包裝時的驅動因素。

Now, we've laid out our pricing actions and are funding the gross savings that we look to drive, combined with our productivity. And I'll just mention, Red Collar will moderate, but it's still going to be an impact on a full year basis, and it's important to realize that. So that will moderate through the year on a full year basis, it will still be an impact on overall gross margin.

現在，我們已經制定了我們的定價行動，並正在為我們希望推動的總儲蓄以及我們的生產力提供資金。我只想提一下，紅領會有所緩和，但它仍然會對全年產生影響，認識到這一點很重要。因此，這將在全年的基礎上緩和，但仍將對整體毛利率產生影響。

Our next question today is from Kevin Grundy of Jefferies.

我們今天的下一個問題來自 Jefferies 的 Kevin Grundy。

Question for Noel and then perhaps, John, you may want to jump in on this as well. Just -- with respect to the impairment charge on the Skin Care assets and just more broadly, how this may be informing the view around capital deployment. And I think, we can all appreciate the noncash charge, not hugely surprising. You guys have been pretty open about some of the challenges in the business, also realized higher rates when you performed the impairment test. So all that kind of makes sense. But I guess just given this dynamic, it sort of, back to the question, does it give you any cause in terms of how you stress that assets that you may be looking at.

向 Noel 提問，然後是 John，你可能也想參與進來。只是 - 關於皮膚護理資產的減值費用，更廣泛地說，這可能如何影響圍繞資本部署的觀點。而且我認為，我們都可以理解非現金費用，這並不奇怪。你們對業務中的一些挑戰持開放態度，在進行減值測試時也實現了更高的利率。所以所有這些都是有道理的。但我想只要考慮到這種動態，它有點回到問題，就你如何強調你可能正在看的資產而言，它是否給你任何原因。

Broadly, does it increase your bias towards internal investment and returning cash to shareholders versus M&A? And then maybe perhaps just from an M&A perspective, an update on any books broadly that you may be seeing and whether private market values have started to come in a bit given higher rates and what we see in the (inaudible) .

從廣義上講，與併購相比，它是否增加了您對內部投資和向股東返還現金的偏見？然後也許只是從併購的角度來看，你可能會看到廣泛的任何書籍的更新，以及私人市場價值是否已經開始在更高的利率和我們在（聽不清）中看到的情況下出現一點。

Sure. Kevin, I think you characterized that well. So let me just recap quickly a couple of aspects of Skin Health, and I'll turn it over to Stan and John for the second part of your question. The impairment was obviously based on 3 issues. The biggest change is our outlook on growth in China. You've seen, I think, external numbers that the beauty segment has taken a significant hit in the last 3 to 6 months. In fact, imports were down 20%.

當然。凱文，我認為你很好地描述了這一點。所以讓我快速回顧一下皮膚健康的幾個方面，我會把它交給斯坦和約翰來回答你問題的第二部分。減值顯然是基於 3 個問題。最大的變化是我們對中國增長的展望。我認為，您已經看到外部數據表明美容領域在過去 3 到 6 個月內受到了重大打擊。事實上，進口下降了 20%。

And given the prolonged impact of COVID in China, particularly as it impacts travel retail, which were a significant portion of our businesses, we obviously then decided to rebase the outlook in years going forward and particularly 2023 in a much more conservative position to ensure that we can deliver on the growth aspects moving forward.

考慮到 COVID 在中國的長期影響，尤其是它對我們業務中很大一部分的旅遊零售的影響，我們顯然決定重新調整未來幾年的前景，尤其是 2023 年，以更加保守的立場，以確保我們可以實現向前發展的增長方面。

Secondly, the situation in China, regarding tourism around the world. As you followed our business on Filorga, it really went with Chinese travel. And as Chinese travel opens up potentially in the back half, we will see an improvement. But we assumed in the impairment that, that will continue to be a headwind for us as we move through at least the first 6 months of the year, slightly improving as we move through the back half of the year.

其次，中國的情況，關於世界各地的旅遊業。當您關注我們在 Filorga 上的業務時，它確實與中國旅遊相得益彰。隨著中國旅遊在下半年可能開放，我們將看到情況有所改善。但我們在減值中假設，至少在今年前 6 個月，這將繼續成為我們的不利因素，隨著我們在今年下半年的發展，情況會略有改善。

And then as you well can understand the significant rise in interest rates has lowered the value in our discounted cash flow. But let me step back for a moment. Again, we continue to be very confident in our strategy around Skin Health. Obviously, the short-term impacts that we've had related to China, we believe ultimately, will get behind us, but we've obviously been conservative in our assumptions on Filorga. We went into 2022, assuming China would open up and it didn't. But we feel good about where we are. We've seen some early signs, certainly in the early part of the year, particularly across our European business on Filorga to give us quite a bit of encouragement.

然後你也可以理解利率的顯著上升降低了我們貼現現金流的價值。但是讓我退後一步。同樣，我們繼續對我們圍繞皮膚健康的戰略充滿信心。顯然，我們相信與中國相關的短期影響最終會過去，但我們對 Filorga 的假設顯然是保守的。我們進入 2022 年，假設中國會開放，但事實並非如此。但我們對自己所處的位置感覺良好。我們已經看到了一些早期跡象，尤其是在今年年初，特別是在我們在 Filorga 的歐洲業務中，這給了我們很大的鼓勵。

Our U.S. business continues to be very, very strong despite the inventory pullback that we saw in the fourth quarter. If I take our online business specifically, our share growth was up 300 basis points online in the back half of last year and on the year, which is terrific.

儘管我們在第四季度看到庫存回落，但我們的美國業務仍然非常非常強勁。如果我具體考慮我們的在線業務，去年下半年和全年我們的在線份額增長了 300 個基點，這非常棒。

Obviously, we incurred that share growth despite, obviously, inventories getting reduced. We do expect some of those inventories to come back slightly, but we're obviously assuming a considerable amount of conservatism there because we can't be sure that particularly the online retailers will take inventory up as quickly as they took it down. Our business overall continues to grow very, very nicely, particularly in the professional channel, which is of course part of our PCA and Elta business, and we have a good innovation plan coming on stream for 2023.

顯然，儘管庫存明顯減少，但我們仍實現了份額增長。我們確實預計其中一些庫存會略有回升，但我們顯然假設存在相當大的保守主義，因為我們不能確定尤其是在線零售商會像減少庫存一樣迅速增加庫存。我們的整體業務繼續非常非常好地增長，特別是在專業渠道，這當然是我們 PCA 和 Elta 業務的一部分，我們有一個很好的創新計劃，將於 2023 年上線。

So overall, still feel very good about the strategy behind Skin Health, need China to turn and you've heard a lot of discussions about the uncertainty in China. But we think we've positioned the brand. So obviously, as China comes back, we'll be in a position to reap the benefits of that.

所以總的來說，對皮膚健康背後的戰略感覺非常好，需要中國轉向，你已經聽到了很多關於中國不確定性的討論。但我們認為我們已經定位了品牌。很明顯，隨著中國回歸，我們將能夠從中獲益。

The only thing I'd add on Filorga is, if you go back and look at the timing of when we purchased it, late 2019, it's built off of a very strong growth in China at the time and very strong growth in the travel retail and then obviously, the pandemic hit, nobody had insight to that. The underlying brand is really strong. There's going to be new innovation. We've got the advertising to support it to bring it to market. We are still confident in the long-term success of this brand. So that's what I'd add on Filorga.

關於 Filorga，我唯一要補充的是，如果你回顧一下我們購買它的時間，2019 年底，它建立在當時中國非常強勁的增長和旅遊零售業非常強勁的增長的基礎上然後很明顯，大流行來襲，沒有人對此有洞察力。底層品牌真的很強大。會有新的創新。我們有廣告支持它把它推向市場。我們仍然對這個品牌的長期成功充滿信心。這就是我要添加到 Filorga 上的內容。

Kevin, the only thing I would say relative to M&A strategy and capital deployment is, our preference is still to deploy capital internally to our projects because we're a big believer in return on invested capital, and that generates the highest incremental return. And so if you look at the investment we're making at Hill's in capacity, if you look at the investment we're making on some of our sustainability projects, Red Collar, honestly, is a little bit of both, right? It's M&A, but it also is an investment in internal growth because we think that Hill's is one of the best growth engines we have.

凱文，關於併購戰略和資本部署，我唯一要說的是，我們仍然傾向於將資本內部部署到我們的項目中，因為我們堅信投資資本回報率，這會產生最高的增量回報。因此，如果您看看我們在 Hill's 的產能投資，如果您看看我們在一些可持續發展項目上的投資，老實說，Red Collar 兩者兼而有之，對吧？這是併購，但也是對內部增長的投資，因為我們認為希爾是我們擁有的最好的增長引擎之一。

So I don't think there's any change in our capital allocation strategy, invest internally. We'd like to pay a healthy dividend, and the Board helps us develop the dividend strategy longer term. Then we'll look at projects when the valuations are appropriate. And we'll see what happens with valuations in the market right now. I think the market is still somewhat in flux from that standpoint.

所以我認為我們的資本配置策略沒有任何變化，內部投資。我們希望支付健康的股息，董事會幫助我們制定更長期的股息戰略。然後，我們將在估值合適時查看項目。我們將看看現在市場上的估值會發生什麼。從這個角度來看，我認為市場仍在不斷變化。

And the capital allocation, I think, as we look at that, we returned $2.9 billion to shareholders. We had $900 million of net share buyback. We've paid dividends since 1895 and 60 consecutive years of increasing it. So our capital allocation strategy hasn't changed. We think it's the right long-term strategy, and we think our investment in M&A is appropriate when we don't have a better internal investment to do or to fill opportunities for us to fill out our model.

我認為，在資本分配方面，我們向股東返還了 29 億美元。我們有 9 億美元的淨股票回購。我們從 1895 年開始支付股息，並連續 60 年增加股息。所以我們的資金配置策略沒有改變。我們認為這是正確的長期戰略，我們認為當我們沒有更好的內部投資可做或填補機會來填補我們的模型時，我們對併購的投資是合適的。

Our next question today will come from Olivia Tong of Raymond James.

我們今天的下一個問題將來自 Raymond James 的 Olivia Tong。

My question is around Oral Care because you've obviously made great improvements here, particularly on pricing, including on the portfolio. So could you give us a sense of how your game plan is pivoting as the macros potentially get a bit more choppy and elasticities get a little bit more elastic. Obviously, high single-digit growth in Oral Care is fantastic. But what's your view on the state of the consumer in the U.S. and developed markets as a whole? And how does that influence your view on potential trade-up versus trade down in 2023?

我的問題是關於口腔護理的，因為你們顯然在這方面做出了很大的改進，特別是在定價方面，包括在產品組合方面。那麼，您能否讓我們了解一下您的遊戲計劃是如何轉變的，因為宏可能會變得更加不穩定，彈性也會變得更加有彈性。顯然，口腔護理領域的高個位數增長令人驚嘆。但您對美國和整個發達市場的消費者狀況有何看法？這將如何影響您對 2023 年潛在升值與降值的看法？

Sure. Olivia, again, as I mentioned earlier, Oral Care had a really, really strong year, high single-digit growth across the year and the quarter, and we were high single digit in Oral Care on 3 of the last 4 quarters and toothbrushes specifically up double digit 3 of the last 4 quarters. Some of that was some easier comps as we were lapping some of the supply chain challenges that we had last year. But the important aspect there is share growth up on the year for both oral -- toothpaste and toothbrushes.

當然。奧利維亞，正如我之前提到的，口腔護理領域的表現非常非常強勁，全年和本季度都實現了高個位數增長，過去 4 個季度中有 3 個季度我們在口腔護理領域實現了高個位數增長，尤其是牙刷在過去的 4 個季度中，有兩位數的增長 3。其中一些比較容易，因為我們正在應對去年遇到的一些供應鏈挑戰。但重要的是，口腔產品——牙膏和牙刷的份額同比增長。

Specifically around elasticity, I think it comes back to the strategy that we talked about for a couple of years now, which is the flexibility in our portfolio. We continue to innovate across all price points, and we cover a wide gamut of price points from opening to now, obviously pushing a lot more of the super premium segment, which you saw some of the examples of the success we're having in the whitening segment in that regard.

特別是圍繞彈性，我認為這又回到了我們討論了幾年的戰略，即我們投資組合的靈活性。我們繼續在所有價位上進行創新，我們涵蓋了從開業到現在的廣泛價位，顯然推動了更多的超高端市場，你看到了我們在美白環節在這方面。

So overall, our categories -- our portfolio is well positioned for this environment. We spend a lot of time as we work through the operations around the world to ensure that we have value-added benefits to every price point within our portfolio and we're flexing our portfolio in different ways over the last couple of years, and we're seeing that certainly translate into improved performance. Elmex would be a great example. Taking elmex very selectively in the pharmacy channel around the world has allowed us to grow incremental share in those businesses.

總的來說，我們的類別——我們的產品組合非常適合這種環境。我們在世界各地開展業務時花費了大量時間，以確保我們的產品組合中的每個價位都具有增值優勢，並且在過去幾年中我們以不同的方式調整我們的產品組合，我們看到這肯定會轉化為改進的性能。 Elmex 將是一個很好的例子。在世界各地的藥店渠道中非常有選擇性地採用 elmex 使我們能夠在這些業務中增加份額。

The other aspect I'd say is our core relaunches. We'll have a significant core relaunch coming on the India business next year. We've relaunched our core business in some of our bigger markets around the world, and that has helped some of the premium innovations come on incrementally into the franchise moving forward. So we feel pretty good about where we are with Oral Care.

我要說的另一個方面是我們的核心重新啟動。明年我們將對印度業務進行重大的核心重新啟動。我們已經在全球一些更大的市場重新啟動了我們的核心業務，這有助於一些優質創新逐步進入特許經營權。因此，我們對口腔護理的現狀感到非常滿意。

Elasticity is exactly where we expected and I think driven by a combination of the flexibility we have in our portfolio in addition to the innovation that we're bringing to the marketplace.

彈性正是我們所期望的，我認為除了我們為市場帶來的創新之外，我們在我們的產品組合中具有靈活性的組合也推動了彈性。

Our next question will come from Nik Modi of RBC Capital Markets.

我們的下一個問題將來自 RBC Capital Markets 的 Nik Modi。

No, I was hoping maybe you could provide some -- a little bit more context on what you're seeing on the ground in China right now. It's interesting you mentioned you think the recovery will happen in the back half. So I think there has been projections by other companies and just by looking at some of the mobility data that things might start improving around March, April. And we're already starting to see kind of -- we track the metro activity in China and starting to see some real improvements there. So just curious on your thoughts there, given how important that business is for the -- on the margin side, given the Skin Care mix.

不，我希望也許你能提供一些——更多關於你目前在中國實地看到的情況的背景信息。有趣的是，你提到你認為複蘇將發生在後半段。因此，我認為其他公司已經做出預測，只要查看一些移動數據，情況可能會在 3 月、4 月左右開始改善。我們已經開始看到 - 我們跟踪中國的地鐵活動，並開始看到那裡有一些真正的改進。考慮到該業務對於利潤方面的重要性，考慮到皮膚護理組合，所以對您的想法感到好奇。

Sure. As I mentioned, we had strong performance in China on the Colgate side of the business. Our Hawley & Hazel business up nicely mid-single digits. Our Colgate business up nicely mid- to high single digits. So overall, we feel very good about the transformation that we put in place over the last couple of years across our China business.

當然。正如我所提到的，我們在中國的高露潔業務表現強勁。我們的 Hawley & Hazel 業務取得了不錯的中個位數增長。我們的高露潔業務實現了中高個位數的良好增長。因此，總的來說，我們對過去幾年在中國業務中實施的轉型感到非常滿意。

Our brick-and-mortar business is a little soft. But as I mentioned, that's, I think, characteristic with the lack of mobility around the country. And as mobility improves, as you say, and if it improves earlier, by all means, we should benefit from that as we continue to expand our distribution in that marketplace. But it continues to be highly, highly uncertain.

我們的實體業務有點疲軟。但正如我提到的，我認為這是全國缺乏流動性的特徵。正如你所說，隨著流動性的提高，如果它更早地改善，我們應該從中受益，因為我們將繼續擴大我們在該市場的分銷。但它仍然具有高度、高度的不確定性。

Obviously, the Chinese New Year, everyone is waiting very carefully to see the impacts of that. There's a lot of euphoria, but infection rates are still very, very high and things could change very, very quickly there. The comment I made about the back half is not only mobility within the country, which I think will probably, as you say, improve more quickly, but it's more external mobility in terms of more international travel, which would benefit the Filorga business.

顯然，農曆新年，每個人都在非常小心地等待著看它的影響。有很多欣快感，但感染率仍然非常非常高，那裡的情況可能會非常非常迅速地改變。我對後半部分的評論不僅是國內的流動性，我認為這可能會像你所說的那樣更快地改善，而且在更多的國際旅行方面更多的外部流動性，這將有利於 Filorga 業務。

But again, we feel good from the success that we're having from a market share growth, as I mentioned earlier, our e-commerce business was up almost 300 basis points on the year, this year, and that is, again, a reflection of the strategy and some of the good innovation we brought into the market. If the markets improve, we shall certainly see the benefits of moving through our P&L earlier than we anticipated. But I would be quite cautious on China at this point. But over the medium and long term, we are very optimistic about the growth opportunities there.

但同樣，我們對市場份額增長所取得的成功感到滿意，正如我之前提到的，我們的電子商務業務今年增長了近 300 個基點，也就是說，再次戰略的反映和我們帶入市場的一些好的創新。如果市場有所改善，我們肯定會比預期更早地看到通過我們的損益表的好處。但在這一點上，我對中國持謹慎態度。但從中長期來看，我們對那裡的增長機會非常樂觀。

Our next question will come from Jason English of Goldman Sachs.

我們的下一個問題將來自高盛的 Jason English。

So Mr. Faucher, you talked about the healthy growth contribution from Hill's. And obviously, the top line lift has been really in the last few years. It's surprising, though, to see penny profit actually contracting this year. Can you unpack the drivers and I imagine within that, you're going to come back to some of the ag inflation? So I guess I'll tag on to that. Ag, the ag complex seems like it's one of the easiest ones to hedge out. I imagine you are hedged out and therefore, have good visibility to it. Assuming that part of the contribution is related to ag, what's impede your ability to price that through.

Faucher 先生，您談到了 Hill's 對健康增長的貢獻。顯然，在過去幾年裡，收入確實有所提升。不過，令人驚訝的是，今年的便士利潤實際上在收縮。你能解開驅動程序的包裝嗎？我想在其中，你會回到一些農業通貨膨脹上嗎？所以我想我會強調這一點。 Ag，ag 複合體似乎是最容易對沖的複合體之一。我想你被對沖了，因此對它有很好的能見度。假設這部分貢獻與 ag 相關，那麼是什麼阻礙了您對其進行定價的能力。

Yes. Thanks, Jason. As you said, we've -- coming off of some of the challenging capacity issues that we had in the third quarter, we feel like we've certainly turned the corner on that business, again, a double-digit growth in the quarter. That's 27% growth on a 2-year stack basis, and we've delivered double-digit growth on the Hill's business 10 to 12 quarters. And we feel with the capacity improvements that we have and obviously the continued increased investments that we feel we're in a very good position to deliver sustained profitable growth moving forward.

是的。謝謝，傑森。正如您所說，我們已經 - 擺脫了第三季度遇到的一些具有挑戰性的產能問題，我們覺得我們肯定已經扭轉了該業務的轉機，再次，該季度實現了兩位數的增長.在 2 年的基礎上，這是 27% 的增長，我們在 10 到 12 個季度的 Hill 業務中實現了兩位數的增長。我們感覺到我們擁有的產能提高以及顯然持續增加的投資，我們認為我們處於非常有利的位置，可以實現持續的盈利增長。

Now as I mentioned, ag prices were just up 25% half to half. Now you take that on the year versus last year, that's significantly more. I'll let Stan talk in a moment to our hedging strategy, which is very minimal around ag prices. So we don't get a lot of -- we don't do a lot of hedging there. But overall, it's taking pricing. It's making sure that we continue to move through the transition aspects of integrating 3 plants and moving capacity from our existing plants into those plants. So there's start-up costs associated with that.

正如我所提到的，農產品價格僅上漲了 25%。現在你把這一年與去年相比，那要多得多。我會讓 Stan 稍後談談我們的對沖策略，該策略在 ag 價格周圍非常小。所以我們沒有得到很多 - 我們沒有在那裡做很多對沖。但總的來說，它正在定價。它確保我們繼續通過整合 3 個工廠並將產能從現有工廠轉移到這些工廠的過渡方面。因此，存在與之相關的啟動成本。

Obviously, we're building a new vet plant, which should open up towards the back half of the year. We have the start-up costs associated with that running through the P&L. But all of it is around building investment ability for the future for us and our ability to continue to sustain the strong top line and the strong investment structure that we have by investing in capacity and allowing us to do the things that we do so well in the marketplace.

顯然，我們正在建設一個新的獸醫工廠，該工廠應該會在今年下半年開放。我們有與貫穿損益表的相關的啟動成本。但所有這一切都圍繞著為我們的未來建立投資能力，以及我們通過投資能力並允許我們做我們在這方面做得很好的事情來繼續維持我們擁有的強勁收入和強大投資結構的能力。市場。

So we feel good about where the business is. Obviously, the ag prices will be where they are, and we're taking pricing, as you've seen, both in the fourth quarter and plan to take more pricing in the first half of this year. But again, if ag prices come back, things will get better. But we, at this point, don't expect any short-term benefits from ag coming back.

因此，我們對業務所在的位置感到滿意。顯然，農業價格將保持原樣，正如您所見，我們在第四季度進行定價，併計劃在今年上半年進行更多定價。但同樣，如果農產品價格回升，情況會好轉。但是，在這一點上，我們並不期望 ag 的回歸會帶來任何短期利益。

Yes. Thanks, Jason and Noel. So what I'd add on to that is we don't have a large hedging program against ag, and that's a philosophy for us. So we look, we do partial hedges there in ag. We don't do that in most other categories. But just, while we've highlighted ag, there are other areas here like chicken livers, other specialty products that come in as part of the diets that make us more complex as well as all the amino acids and everything else. Those have all had inflation as well. .

是的。謝謝，傑森和諾埃爾。所以我要補充的是，我們沒有針對 ag 的大型對沖計劃，這對我們來說是一種理念。所以我們看，我們在 ag 那裡做部分對沖。我們不會在大多數其他類別中這樣做。但是，雖然我們強調了 ag，但這裡還有其他領域，例如雞肝，作為飲食的一部分出現的其他特色產品，使我們變得更加複雜，以及所有氨基酸和其他一切。這些也都有通貨膨脹。 .

So while agriculture products have had the most significant, we've also had those. And things like the avian flu do have a ripple effect into the availability of those products. So as we look, we've also integrated now 4 plants through acquisitions, 1 from NutriAmo earlier in the year and then the 3 from Red Collar. So we took those over on September 30. That integration has gone well. But as you would expect, there are start-up costs that go along with that.

因此，雖然農產品最重要，但我們也有這些。像禽流感這樣的事情確實對這些產品的可用性產生了連鎖反應。因此，正如我們所看到的，我們現在還通過收購整合了 4 家工廠，今年早些時候 1 家來自 NutriAmo，然後 3 家來自 Red Collar。所以我們在 9 月 30 日接管了這些。整合進展順利。但正如您所料，隨之而來的是啟動成本。

As we bring Tonganoxie online, that's our new vet plant in Kansas, in the second half of the year, we're very excited about that plant. It has great automation. It's going to be, I think, a great addition to the portfolio. But that has start-up costs in '23, in particular, in the first half as we hire staffing, get the staffing right, heading into prep for going live.

當我們將 Tonganoxie 上線時，這是我們在堪薩斯州的新獸醫工廠，在今年下半年，我們對該工廠感到非常興奮。它有很好的自動化。我認為，這將是對投資組合的一個很好的補充。但這在 23 年有啟動成本，特別是在上半年，因為我們僱用了人員，讓人員配備正確，準備上線。

So important here, on Hill's, we see a great market opportunity. Science-based, our research center really supports that. We're investing the advertising behind that to drive that capability and to drive that demand. And we think that serves us well for the long term. So we expect margin improvement heading into '23 in Hill's. We're excited about that market opportunity and what it represents to the company. We also think it fits really well in our overall portfolio with a science-based approach.

在這裡如此重要，在 Hill's，我們看到了巨大的市場機會。以科學為基礎，我們的研究中心真正支持這一點。我們正在投資背後的廣告來推動這種能力並推動這種需求。我們認為從長遠來看這對我們有好處。因此，我們預計 Hill's 的利潤率將在 23 年有所改善。我們對這個市場機會及其對公司的意義感到興奮。我們還認為它以基於科學的方法非常適合我們的整體產品組合。

Jason, I'd throw one other point, which I think is relevant to not only Hill's, but to other aspects or other questions that have come up this morning. And that is the foreign exchange impact in Europe in the quarter. Obviously, the second largest business outside the U.S. for Hill's is Europe, and Europe had 11% headwind in foreign exchange, and that obviously moved through the Colgate side of the business as well.

傑森，我要提出另一點，我認為這不僅與希爾有關，而且與今天上午提出的其他方面或其他問題也有關。這就是本季度歐洲的外匯影響。顯然，希爾在美國以外的第二大業務是歐洲，歐洲在外匯方面有 11% 的逆風，這顯然也通過了高露潔的業務。

Now you've seen the significant pricing that we're taking, but obviously the transactional impact, as well as the translational impact of that foreign exchange moved through in the fourth quarter and certainly dampened a little bit of the penny profit that we would have expected.

現在你已經看到了我們正在採取的重大定價，但顯然交易影響以及外彙的轉化影響在第四季度發生了變化，並且肯定會抑制我們本應獲得的一分錢利潤預期的。

Our next question will come from Steve Powers of Deutsche Bank.

我們的下一個問題將來自德意志銀行的 Steve Powers。

So picking up a little bit on what you were just talking about in terms of start-up costs, but also the manufacturing variances and the negative mix that, Noel, you alluded to earlier with respect to the fourth quarter. I guess, a couple of questions related to that. One is, I assume that's lumped into the raw materials, the 120-basis point negative impact of raw materials, I don't know where else it would go. So if that's the case, I guess, is there a way to quantify what those sort of, to me, non-raw materials costs would have been or were in the quarter as a headwind, #1. #2, how we think about those and carrying over and phasing at least into the -- I presume the first half of '23.

因此，請稍微了解一下您剛剛談到的啟動成本，以及製造差異和負面組合，Noel，您早些時候提到了第四季度。我想，有幾個與此相關的問題。一是，我假設這被歸入原材料，原材料的 120 個基點的負面影響，我不知道它還會去哪裡。因此，如果是這樣的話，我想，有沒有一種方法可以量化那些對我來說非原材料成本在本季度已經或已經成為不利因素的因素，#1。 #2，我們如何考慮這些，並至少延續和逐步進入——我假設是 23 年上半年。

And then just to clarify and round it out is, are those impacts embedded in the several hundred million dollar raw and packaging materials inflation outlook for next year just because I think it's a little bit different than raw and packaging materials is sort of narrowly defined. That's really my -- those are my main questions.

然後只是為了澄清並完善它，這些影響是否嵌入了明年數億美元的原材料和包裝材料通脹前景中，只是因為我認為它與原材料和包裝材料的狹義定義有點不同。這真的是我的 - 這些是我的主要問題。

If you could also talk a little bit about how you're thinking about Red Collar phasing through the year? And just operationally, what that entails, if there are costs, whether cash costs or costs that are notable going to the P&L as you do transition the private label product over to Hill's, just that would be helpful to understand.

您是否也可以談談您如何看待 Red Collar 在這一年中的階段性變化？就運營而言，這需要什麼，如果有成本，無論是現金成本還是在您將自有品牌產品轉移到 Hill's 時顯著進入損益的成本，這將有助於理解。

Sure, Steve. Let me take very top line kind of strategically how we're integrating Red Collar and the deliberate plans that we've taken to ensure a successful integration into the Colgate-Palmolive Company.

當然，史蒂夫。讓我從戰略上講一下我們如何整合 Red Collar 以及我們為確保成功整合到高露潔棕欖公司而採取的深思熟慮的計劃。

First, it's 3 significant plants that we're obviously integrating, and as we've talked about it for the better part of a year, all of our existing facilities on Hill's have been running full out. And obviously, that is a very inefficient way to run your supply chain. Now we've obviously been investing in improved capacity, obviously, with the plants in addition to the Tonganoxie, in addition to the plant that we purchased in Italy.

首先，我們顯然正在整合 3 家重要的工廠，正如我們已經討論了一年的大部分時間，我們在 Hill's 的所有現有設施都已滿負荷運行。顯然，這是一種非常低效的供應鏈運行方式。現在，我們顯然一直在投資提高產能，除了 Tonganoxie，還有我們在意大利購買的工廠。

But again, integrating those into the system to ensure one quality mechanisms or where they need to be, ensuring the lines are capable of the flexibility and the formulations and the sophistication of our formulations, making sure that, obviously, that the, all aspects of the science-driven approach that we've taken to our formulas is well understood and by the culture of the organizations that we're integrating into the company.

但同樣，將這些整合到系統中以確保一種質量機製或它們需要的地方，確保生產線具有靈活性和配方以及我們配方的複雜性，顯然，確保所有方面我們對公式採用的以科學為導向的方法得到了很好的理解，並且被我們融入公司的組織文化所理解。

All of that has been very, very methodical. We're not going -- given that we need the capacity, we're not going to rush ourselves into doing this too quickly. So we've been very careful to ensure long-term success as we built the plants to bring that volume into the Colgate business over time.

所有這些都非常非常有條理。我們不會 - 鑑於我們需要容量，我們不會急於做得太快。因此，我們一直非常謹慎地確保長期成功，因為我們建造工廠是為了隨著時間的推移將這一產量帶入高露潔業務。

So with that, let me turn it over to Stan. He'll take you through a little bit of how we planned for Red Collar and how we're thinking about the ongoing start-up costs associated with that.

因此，讓我把它交給斯坦。他將向您介紹我們如何為 Red Collar 做計劃，以及我們如何考慮與之相關的持續啟動成本。

Yes. So let's start with Red Collar first. So as Red Collar comes in and we cut over production over time, and this will be over an elongated period of time. There are a few things that have to happen. One, and of course, I should start, all of this is baked into our guidance. So as we planned this out, this is all incorporated within our guidance. So first, as we take the Red Collar facilities, and migrate those over to produce Hill's formulas, there is investment that has to go into that. We've incorporated that into our capital, and we've incorporated any income statement impact into the numbers.

是的。所以讓我們先從紅領開始。因此，隨著 Red Collar 的加入，我們會隨著時間的推移削減產量，這將持續很長時間。有幾件事必鬚髮生。第一，當然，我應該開始，所有這些都融入了我們的指導方針。因此，正如我們計劃的那樣，這一切都包含在我們的指導中。因此，首先，當我們採用 Red Collar 設施並將其遷移到生產 Hill 的配方時，必須對此進行投資。我們已將其納入我們的資本，並將任何損益表影響納入數字。

And that really centers around what Red Collar was producing was much simpler formulas for us and for others. And our diets, our formulas are much more complex, in particular, in the prescription diet area, which is why I think they are such valuable to consumers. So that involves additional mixing, additional ability in testing, quality testing as we go in, and that will require capital investment into those facilities, all planned, all on track.

這真正圍繞著 Red Collar 為我們和其他人生產的更簡單的公式。我們的飲食，我們的配方要復雜得多，特別是在處方飲食領域，這就是為什麼我認為它們對消費者如此有價值。因此，這涉及額外的混合、額外的測試能力、我們進入時的質量測試，這將需要對這些設施進行資本投資，所有這些都已計劃好，都在按計劃進行。

The variances that we have in total, so let me step back to there, the variances that we have in total go into gross profit. So that as they are going through, we expect that those will get better. We expect that those will get better, as we get some relief on the overall manufacturing as those Red Collar facilities come fully on board and produce more of Hill's formulas. That allows us to go in and do more efficiency planning within the existing facilities.

我們總的差異，讓我回到那裡，我們總的差異進入毛利潤。因此，隨著他們的經歷，我們希望他們會變得更好。我們希望這些情況會變得更好，因為我們對整體製造有所緩解，因為這些 Red Collar 設施已全面投入使用並生產更多的 Hill's 配方奶粉。這使我們能夠在現有設施內進行更高效的規劃。

So as we think about Tonganoxie, that's, again, the new vet food plant that will come online in the second half of '23. In the beginning, we do have some startup costs there. And those start-up costs, again, are around things like bubble staffing as we bring the staff on board and get them trained. And so we expect that, that will contribute in the second half, but it becomes a headwind in the first half around Hill's.

因此，當我們想到 Tonganoxie 時，這又是將在 23 年下半年上線的新獸醫食品工廠。一開始，我們確實有一些啟動成本。這些啟動成本再次與泡沫人員配備有關，因為我們讓員工上船並接受培訓。所以我們預計，這將在下半場做出貢獻，但在上半場圍繞希爾的情況下會成為逆風。

So thinking about Red Collar. Keep in mind that this was acquired and was in for the full quarter of Q4 of '22. So we'll wrap around from an impact here in Q4 of '23. But as we go forward, you should think that the impact to margin is roughly in line with what we saw in fourth quarter. So it would be a benefit to the top line. And given that the private label activity is at a much lower margin, that will impact margin through the year but at a slightly decreasing rate.

所以想到了紅領。請記住，這是在 22 年第 4 季度的整個季度獲得的。因此，我們將在 23 年第四季度結束這裡的影響。但隨著我們向前邁進，您應該認為對利潤率的影響與我們在第四季度看到的大致一致。因此，這將有利於頂線。鑑於自有品牌活動的利潤率要低得多，這將影響全年的利潤率，但幅度會略有下降。

Our next question will come from Rob Ottenstein of Evercore.

我們的下一個問題將來自 Evercore 的 Rob Ottenstein。

A couple of follow-up questions. One, you mentioned in the press release or the comments that there was an e-commerce inventory drawdown on Skin Health. Can you just clarify exactly what brands that was and why that would be happening? And then I'd like to just kind of talk a little bit more about Hill's.

幾個後續問題。第一，你在新聞稿或評論中提到皮膚健康的電子商務庫存減少。您能否準確說明那是什麼品牌以及為什麼會發生這種情況？然後我想多談談希爾的。

One question that we're getting is, what was the effect of private label on the organic number. So if you took private label out, was the volume growth actually down 100 basis points. So a clarification on that. And then bigger picture, if we could kind of scope out and look at the whole pet food area in general, you guys are obviously premium and have been gaining share a long time. Can you talk about historically a potential trade-down impact given a tougher consumer environment and how you may be adapting to that and what your volume assumptions are for Pet in 2023?

我們得到的一個問題是，自有品牌對有機數量的影響是什麼。因此，如果你去掉自有品牌，銷量增長實際上下降了 100 個基點。所以對此進行澄清。然後從更大的角度來看，如果我們能夠擴大範圍並總體上看一下整個寵物食品領域，你們顯然是優質的並且長期以來一直在獲得份額。考慮到更嚴峻的消費環境，您能否從歷史上談談潛在的折衷影響，以及您可能如何適應這種情況，以及您對 2023 年 Pet 的銷量假設是什麼？

Let me take the e-commerce question first. A good year for e-commerce, as I mentioned, it's up to 14% of our sales. We continued to see strong growth throughout the year. And importantly, in the most important markets around the world, we continue to see strong share growth. So overall, we feel a lot of the work that we put into our digital transformation has paid out quite nicely in the consumption that we're seeing across the board, whether that's our Skin business, whether that's our U.S. Oral Care business or our Hill's business, we are performing quite well. And we're sharing those capabilities very nicely across the enterprise.

讓我先回答電子商務問題。正如我所提到的，這是電子商務的好年頭，它占我們銷售額的 14%。全年我們繼續看到強勁的增長。重要的是，在全球最重要的市場，我們繼續看到強勁的份額增長。所以總的來說，我們覺得我們在數字化轉型中所做的很多工作已經在我們看到的全面消費方面得到了很好的回報，無論是我們的皮膚業務，還是我們的美國口腔護理業務或我們的 Hill's業務方面，我們的表現相當不錯。我們正在整個企業中很好地共享這些功能。

And as I've talked to you before in the past, obviously, Hill's was at the forefront of that. and a lot of the skill sets that we built in our Hill's organization have certainly translated now across the enterprise, and we're using those benefits to grow our e-commerce business, both on a share basis and a top line basis.

正如我過去曾與您交談過的那樣，很明顯，Hill's 處於這方面的最前沿。我們在 Hill 的組織中建立的許多技能現在肯定已經在整個企業中得到了轉化，我們正在利用這些好處來發展我們的電子商務業務，無論是在份額基礎上還是在收入基礎上。

The inventory drawdown was on PCA and Elta in the U.S. in the online channel, which is their #1 retail channel. As you know, they sell through the profession and they sell online through the big online retailers. The big online retailers took significant inventory out of the system in the fourth quarter. These are very high-priced items, as you're well aware. And they felt, I guess, managing their working capital that they were going to take those down in the fourth quarter.

庫存減少是在美國的 PCA 和 Elta 在線渠道中進行的，這是他們排名第一的零售渠道。如您所知，他們通過專業銷售，並通過大型在線零售商在線銷售。大型在線零售商在第四季度從系統中清除了大量庫存。這些都是非常昂貴的物品，你很清楚。他們覺得，我猜，管理他們的營運資金，他們將在第四季度減少這些資金。

The good news, as I mentioned earlier, we didn't see a significant impact on our consumption. Our shares were actually up. And the more important news is that we started to see that inventory rebuild itself slowly, I would say, in the first quarter of this year, particularly January. Now that's not to say that at the end of the quarter, we may see more drawdowns. But in any case, the good news is we're starting to seeing some improvements there. But it was on the PCA and Elta business in the U.S.

好消息，正如我之前提到的，我們沒有看到對我們的消費產生重大影響。我們的股票實際上上漲了。更重要的消息是，我們開始看到庫存在緩慢地自行重建，我想說，在今年第一季度，尤其是 1 月份。現在這並不是說在本季度末，我們可能會看到更多的回撤。但無論如何，好消息是我們開始在那裡看到一些改進。但它是在美國的 PCA 和 Elta 業務上。

And likewise, on the Filorga business in China with the significant lockdowns that we saw across China in the fourth quarter and coming out of the third quarter, we saw significant inventory reductions in the online business there as well.

同樣，在 Filorga 在中國的業務方面，我們在第四季度和第三季度在中國看到了重大停工，我們也看到在線業務的庫存大幅減少。

Relative to private label, let me characterize, I guess, first Oral Care. So Oral Care private label in the U.S. is about 0.9% share and that share is roughly flat on the quarter -- in the fourth quarter and flat on the year. Oral Care private label shares in Europe are around 3.5%. And likewise, that share is flat. We are seeing a little bit of growth in private label businesses, particularly in Europe on some of the Home Care businesses. Obviously, cleaners, dish and to a certain extent, fabric softeners, we've seen about 1 point of growth in the private label business there. But consistent with where we expected. So nothing unusual. And importantly, we don't see, obviously, given the benign levels of shares we've seen in Oral Care, we haven't seen a significant turnaround there.

相對於自有品牌，我猜首先是口腔護理。因此，美國口腔護理自有品牌的份額約為 0.9%，該份額與本季度大致持平——第四季度與全年持平。歐洲口腔護理自有品牌份額約為 3.5%。同樣，該份額持平。我們看到自有品牌業務略有增長，尤其是在歐洲的一些家庭護理業務。顯然，清潔劑、洗碗機以及在一定程度上的織物柔軟劑，我們已經看到那裡的自有品牌業務增長了大約 1 個百分點。但與我們預期的一致。所以沒有什麼不尋常的。而且重要的是，我們顯然沒有看到，鑑於我們在口腔護理領域看到的良性股票水平，我們還沒有看到那裡出現重大轉變。

On the Hill's trade down, we have not seen trade down thus far. If you go back to '07, '08, which we spent a lot of time looking at the premiumization of the category during that period, we did not see consumers pulling back on scientifically proven pet nutrition. And we feel that given the strength of our innovation and obviously, the strength of the investment that we're putting in the market, that we'll be able to continue to manage that quite well.

在希爾的交易下降方面，到目前為止我們還沒有看到交易下降。如果你回到 07 年、08 年，那段時間我們花了很多時間研究該類別的高端化，我們沒有看到消費者放棄科學證明的寵物營養。我們認為，鑑於我們的創新實力，顯然，我們在市場上的投資實力，我們將能夠繼續很好地管理它。

So Rob, let me just pick up on the Hill's organic and private label and how we're showing that. If you look at the press release, you stated, you saw net sales were up 20%. Organic sales were up 14%. There is no private label in the organic sales. So we included in the net sales. But in organic, it will only be inorganic when it wraps around for the year, which will be in the fourth quarter. So when you see organic sales, that represents true year-on-year with no private label benefit in that number.

所以 Rob，讓我簡單介紹一下 Hill 的有機和自有品牌，以及我們如何展示這一點。如果你看新聞稿，你說，你看到淨銷售額增長了 20%。有機銷售額增長了 14%。有機銷售中沒有私人標籤。所以我們包括在淨銷售額中。但就有機而言，它只會在今年結束時才會是無機的，也就是第四季度。因此，當您看到有機銷售額時，這代表了真正的同比增長，並且在該數字中沒有自有品牌的好處。

Similar to volume, you'll see the volume in the press release at plus 10% and then organic volume at plus 0.5%. So volume expanded even outside of private label, so you get a feel for the size of private label in the as-reported volume number. So again, that will be that way Q1 through Q3. And then in Q4, it will wrap around because it will be in both years and be in the organic numbers.

與成交量類似，您會在新聞稿中看到成交量增加 10%，然後有機成交量增加 0.5%。因此，即使在自有品牌之外，銷量也會擴大，因此您可以在報告的銷量數字中感受到自有品牌的規模。同樣，Q1 到 Q3 也是如此。然後在第 4 季度，它會環繞，因為它會在這兩年出現，並且會出現在有機數字中。

Our next question will come from Mark Astrachan of Stifel.

我們的下一個問題將來自 Stifel 的 Mark Astrachan。

I want to go back to gross margin kind of looking backwards and then trying to think about it going forward. So I guess I'm curious what happened to gross margin in 4Q. I mean, I hear all of what you talked about, some things unexpected. But if you go back and look at what you said at the last call, you were locked in, at least that's what I thought you said on, I assume a bunch of these are raw materials, ag pieces.

我想回到毛利率的問題上，回顧一下，然後再考慮一下。所以我想我很好奇第四季度的毛利率發生了什麼變化。我的意思是，我聽到了你所說的所有內容，有些是出乎意料的。但如果你回頭看看你在上次電話會議上說的話，你就被鎖定了，至少我認為你是這麼說的，我假設其中一堆是原材料，ag 件。

So was just these manufacturing variances, start-up costs, et cetera, that much greater. And I guess the question going forward then is, I hear you and a lot among the question on this call is about improving gross margin expectations and all these things that are potential tailwinds. But how much visibility do you have as you sit here today? And what potentially is baked in that could go wrong?

僅僅是這些製造差異、啟動成本等等就大得多了。我想接下來的問題是，我聽到你的聲音，這次電話會議的很多問題都是關於提高毛利率預期以及所有這些潛在的順風因素。但是，當您今天坐在這裡時，您的能見度有多少？什麼可能會出錯？

And then kind of pushing it forward longer term, how do you think about -- how does the company think about the necessity to grow gross margins over time so that you can hit the earnings algorithm for the business given where the top line expectations are and just how important that is and what line of sight you have to get back to a number, not that I'm expecting you to comment on, you can get to 60% again, but if you can talk directionally to that, that would be helpful as well.

然後從長遠來看，你如何看待 - 公司如何考慮隨著時間的推移增加毛利率的必要性，以便你可以在考慮到最高預期的情況下達到業務的盈利算法這有多重要以及你必須回到什麼視線才能回到一個數字，而不是我期待你發表評論，你可以再次達到 60%，但如果你可以定向地談論那個，那就是也有幫助。

Thanks, Mark. Let me start with the end, the last question first and provide some thoughts and I'll have Stan walk through a bit more of our assumptions once again. Listen, driving gross margin for our company has always been fundamental, and it's always been the fulcrum of our P&L. And as we laid out in the prepared comments, we expect gross profit to be up in 2023. I remind you that the gross profit was down 160 basis points in the fourth quarter when you exclude the impact of Red Collar.

謝謝，馬克。讓我從結尾開始，首先是最後一個問題，然後提供一些想法，我將讓 Stan 再次詳細介紹我們的假設。聽著，推動我們公司的毛利率一直是根本，它一直是我們損益表的支點。正如我們在準備好的評論中所述，我們預計毛利將在 2023 年上升。我提醒您，如果排除紅領的影響，第四季度毛利下降了 160 個基點。

Some of the issues that we incurred in the fourth quarter. Obviously, we had a mix issue with the lower Skin Health business that we mentioned. A little bit of a mix issue on Hill's as well with more of the Science Diet business versus Prescription Diet, but we obviously had the elevated ag prices moving through there and the start-up costs that as Stan mentioned earlier, that moved through the gross profit line. But step back again, I mean, we are very focused on getting pricing in the P&L and you've seen that sequentially improve from third to fourth quarter. We expect that to benefit us next year.

我們在第四季度遇到的一些問題。顯然，我們提到的較低的皮膚健康業務存在混合問題。 Hill's 以及更多的科學飲食業務與處方飲食的混合問題，但我們顯然有高漲的 ag 價格和啟動成本，正如 Stan 前面提到的，通過毛利潤線。但再退一步，我的意思是，我們非常專注於在損益表中定價，你已經看到從第三季度到第四季度的連續改善。我們預計這將使我們明年受益。

Now there are a lot of assumptions on where commodities go. We talked about a couple of hundred million dollars there. But remember where we were in the first quarter of this year. We had a lot of assumptions there, and we got ahead of that very, very quickly in terms of where things move. Now, if things move -- stay where they are, improve, obviously, we don't think we'll be at the low end of our guidance, but we feel it's a prudent and flexible place to be given the uncertainty that we've seen and the movement that we've seen, certainly over the last 6 to 9 months in commodity prices, not to mention foreign exchange.

現在有很多關於商品走向的假設。我們在那裡談到了幾億美元。但請記住我們今年第一季度的情況。我們在那裡有很多假設，並且我們在事情的進展方面非常非常快地領先於這些假設。現在，如果事情發生變化——保持現狀，改善，顯然，我們認為我們不會處於指導的低端，但我們認為考慮到我們的不確定性，這是一個謹慎和靈活的地方在過去 6 到 9 個月裡，我們已經看到了商品價格的變化，更不用說外匯了。

So let me turn it over to Stan to give you a little bit more color once again on where we are from some of our locks in our contracts.

因此，讓我將其轉交給 Stan，讓您再次了解我們在合同中的一些鎖的位置。

Yes. So on gross profit and we look at raw and pack, we do lock in a majority of our commodities here at least 90 days out for the next quarter. But there is still conversion costs, there's still the manufacturing variances that we have to go through. Labor costs that goes into that, et cetera. So when we look at this and for fourth quarter, the 250-basis point as reported decline in the margin, again, private label drove about 90 points of that, so you're at 160 points. And as we look at prices here, again, it was 920 basis points, relatively consistent with Q3. And our conversion costs and some of the variances that we talked about had an impact overall on margin versus our original expectation.

是的。因此，在毛利方面，我們查看原始和包裝，我們確實在下一季度至少 90 天后鎖定了我們的大部分商品。但是仍然存在轉換成本，仍然存在我們必須經歷的製造差異。勞動力成本，等等。因此，當我們看這個和第四季度時，報告的利潤率下降了 250 個基點，自有品牌再次推動了其中的 90 個基點，所以你是 160 個基點。當我們在這裡查看價格時，再次是 920 個基點，與第三季度相對一致。我們的轉換成本和我們談到的一些差異對利潤率與我們最初的預期相比產生了總體影響。

As we look going ahead, we are guiding for expansion of gross profit margin heading into '23. And we think as we look at that, the components of that are going to be, moderating commodities, raw and pack, improved pricing and RGM. And then the productivity work that we've been doing across the board will have a benefit here to margin. So the margin expansion again fuels that investment into advertising. So we do believe that margin expansion is a core component, foundation of our overall model. And so that expansion into next year will fuel that model, which will allow us to deliver low to mid-single-digit earnings growth.

展望未來，我們正在指導 23 年毛利率的擴大。我們認為，當我們看到這一點時，其中的組成部分將是調節商品、原材料和包裝、提高定價和 RGM。然後，我們一直在全面開展的生產力工作將在這裡帶來利潤。因此，利潤率的擴張再次推動了對廣告的投資。因此，我們確實相信利潤率擴張是核心組成部分，是我們整體模型的基礎。因此，明年的擴張將推動該模式，這將使我們能夠實現低至中等個位數的盈利增長。

Our next question today will come from Lauren Lieberman of Barclays.

我們今天的下一個問題將來自巴克萊銀行的 Lauren Lieberman。

I know you've covered a lot of ground, but I just was curious, knowing that 4Q gross margins came in below what you had anticipated. You've obviously detailed the reasons a couple of times. I was just curious, the bottom line is still delivered, frankly. So that means there were some choices made, perhaps a little bit short term on lines within OpEx. And so I was just curious kind of what are the areas that you may be pulled back on in the shorter terms and how you kind of make those decisions and how we should think about the reinvestment in 2023.

我知道你已經涵蓋了很多方面，但我只是很好奇，知道第 4 季度的毛利率低於你的預期。你顯然已經詳細說明了幾次原因。我只是好奇，坦率地說，底線仍然存在。所以這意味著做出了一些選擇，也許是在 OpEx 的線路上做出了一些短期的選擇。因此，我只是想知道在短期內您可能會退出哪些領域，您是如何做出這些決定的，以及我們應該如何考慮 2023 年的再投資。

Sure. Well, we didn't pull back on the advertising investment. Obviously, that was down 20 basis points on a percent to sales. But if you exclude Red Collar, advertising was flat and on a local currency basis, Lauren, the advertising was up. And that becomes fundamental to continue to build the momentum of the progress we've seen in 2022 to ensure that we deliver that continued momentum in 2023, and that was a very deliberate choice to sustain the investment moving through the quarter. .

當然。好吧，我們沒有撤回廣告投資。顯然，這佔銷售額的百分比下降了 20 個基點。但如果你排除紅領，廣告是持平的，以當地貨幣為基礎，勞倫，廣告是上升的。這對於繼續建立我們在 2022 年看到的進展勢頭以確保我們在 2023 年提供持續的勢頭變得至關重要，這是一個非常慎重的選擇，以維持整個季度的投資。 .

Obviously, a little bit of softness in gross margin, as I mentioned, largely driven by mix of the Hill's business coming in a little bit lower than we expected, as well as Skin Health. But we feel those are well under control. We have good visibility about where those 2 businesses are going. So we feel like we're in a pretty good position to continue to execute against our strategy, deliver against the gross margin improvement in 2023.

顯然，正如我所提到的，毛利率略有疲軟，這主要是由於希爾的業務組合略低於我們的預期，以及皮膚健康。但我們覺得這些都在控制之中。我們對這兩家公司的發展方向有很好的了解。因此，我們覺得我們處於一個非常好的位置，可以繼續執行我們的戰略，實現 2023 年毛利率的提高。

Obviously, the first half, we have a bit more visibility. We don't have that visibility in the second half, but we will continue to execute against what we see in front of us, and that is our need to take more pricing, get it into the P&L, ensure we have the investment to support that.

顯然，上半場，我們有更多的知名度。下半年我們沒有這種可見性，但我們將繼續根據眼前的情況執行，那就是我們需要採取更多定價，將其納入損益表，確保我們有投資來支持那。

The only thing I'd add, Lauren, on that one is, look, we took actions early in the year, particularly around the global productivity initiative that started to pay off in the back half of the year. So we saw some of that flow through here hit in the back half of the year, and we managed the overhead lines carefully and because we're running the entire P&L up and down. And those overhead lines, we prioritize within that. We want to make sure we support advertising, digital, analytics, and then we make trade-offs within that, as you would expect us to do, go forward. We think that's just a prudent way to run the business, and we'll continue to do that heading into '23.

勞倫，我唯一要補充的是，看，我們在今年年初採取了行動，特別是圍繞全球生產力計劃，該計劃在今年下半年開始見效。因此，我們在今年下半年看到了一些流經這裡的流量，我們仔細管理了開銷線，因為我們正在上下運行整個損益表。而那些架空線路，我們在其中優先考慮。我們希望確保我們支持廣告、數字、分析，然後我們在其中進行權衡，正如您希望我們做的那樣，繼續前進。我們認為這只是一種謹慎的經營方式，我們將在 23 世紀繼續這樣做。

Yes. As I mentioned earlier, Lauren, we're very pleased with that middle part of the P&L around how we managed overheads which given, obviously, the headwinds we've seen below that around interest expense as well as tax, it's extremely important that we got ahead of that. We delivered an additional 50 basis points of overhead on top of the 150 basis points that we had in the previous year.

是的。正如我之前提到的，勞倫，我們對我們如何管理間接費用的損益表的中間部分感到非常滿意，這顯然是我們在利息支出和稅收方面看到的不利因素，我們非常重要領先於此。我們在去年的 150 個基點基礎上增加了 50 個基點的管理費用。

So we feel that structures us well to invest in strategically the areas that we think are fundamental to driving long-term growth. Those are the capabilities that we've talked about around digital transformation, improved capabilities around innovation, certainly as we restructure that part of the organization and making sure that we have that operating leverage to sustain the advertising investment which is clearly driving a good top line growth for us.

因此，我們認為我們的結構很好，可以戰略性地投資於我們認為對推動長期增長至關重要的領域。這些是我們圍繞數字化轉型討論的能力，圍繞創新的改進能力，當然是因為我們重組了組織的這一部分，並確保我們擁有運營槓桿來維持廣告投資，這顯然推動了良好的收入為我們成長。

Our next question will come from Bryan Spillane of Bank of America.

我們的下一個問題將來自美國銀行的 Bryan Spillane。

So my question is just around cash flow. Free cash flow conversion, if I'm doing the math right, was about 74% of net income this year. I think in absolute dollars, free cash flow down about $900 million. So maybe you can talk a little bit about, as we look forward, do we expect some of that free cash flow productivity to improve?

所以我的問題只是圍繞現金流。如果我沒記錯的話，自由現金流轉換大約佔今年淨收入的 74%。我認為以絕對美元計算，自由現金流下降了約 9 億美元。所以也許你可以談談，正如我們期待的那樣，我們是否期望一些自由現金流生產率會提高？

And then maybe just related -- I know you've talked about net interest expense being higher for this year. Just if you can put a number on that and also on capital spending.

然後可能只是相關 - 我知道你已經談到今年的淨利息支出更高。只要你能在上面加上一個數字，也可以在資本支出上加上數字。

All right. Let me top line, and I'll let Stan take you through some of the puts and takes. But overall, cash flow, cash was down due to lower cash income, right? Obviously, that was the higher -- that was the -- some choices that we made, particularly around working capital investments. A little bit increase in the inventories as we were dealing with some of the supply chain disruptions we saw from suppliers, and our need to sustain the consumption growth that we had in the marketplace, particularly some of the stronger consumption growth. But obviously, inventory days came up as a consequence of that, but we improved a bit of that in the fourth quarter versus where we were in the third quarter.

好的。讓我最重要的是，我會讓 Stan 帶你了解一些 puts 和 takes。但總的來說，現金流，現金由於現金收入減少而下降，對吧？顯然，這是我們做出的一些更高的選擇，尤其是在營運資本投資方面。由於我們正在處理我們從供應商那裡看到的一些供應鏈中斷，以及我們需要維持我們在市場上的消費增長，特別是一些更強勁的消費增長，因此庫存略有增加。但顯然，庫存天數因此而增加，但與第三季度相比，我們在第四季度有所改善。

But clearly, it was driven by the lower cash profits driven by obviously, the sustained foreign exchange hit as well as the challenges that we saw moving through gross margin on the year. CapEx was the other one, a deliberate choice for us. Obviously, the growth that we've made -- the growth that we put into Hill's and the investment and the significant increase in capital expenditures there and some of the increases that John mentioned earlier around sustainability, which we think are extremely important to position us for where the markets are moving forward. And overall, I would say that we expect a very nice improvement in operating cash flow in 2023.

但顯然，這是由於明顯的現金利潤下降、持續的外匯衝擊以及我們看到今年毛利率面臨的挑戰所推動的。資本支出是另一個，是我們深思熟慮的選擇。顯然，我們已經取得的增長——我們投入 Hill's 的增長以及那裡的投資和資本支出的顯著增加，以及約翰之前提到的關於可持續性的一些增長，我們認為這對我們的定位極為重要對於市場向前發展的地方。總的來說，我想說的是，我們預計 2023 年的經營現金流會出現非常好的改善。

Yes. Let me pick up there on the cash flow. So as Noel said, we do expect improvement in '23, and it's really going to be twofold. One, the improvement in cash profits, as we've guided to; and second, the improvement in working capital. We see opportunities there. We have been conservative on our working capital here in '22 and particularly around inventory. We wanted to make sure that we could restore fill rates across the board, that we had enough inventory to supply. And in particular towards the late in the fourth quarter, as China had impacts from COVID on manufacturing, we prudently brought in additional inventory to make sure we could fulfill clients over the year-end.

是的。讓我談談現金流量。因此，正如諾埃爾所說，我們確實希望在 23 年有所改善，而且這確實是雙重的。第一，現金利潤的改善，正如我們所指導的那樣；第二，營運資金的改善。我們在那裡看到了機會。我們在 22 年的營運資金方面一直很保守，尤其是在庫存方面。我們希望確保我們能夠全面恢復供應率，確保我們有足夠的庫存供應。特別是在第四季度末，由於中國受到 COVID 對製造業的影響，我們謹慎地增加了庫存，以確保我們能夠在年底滿足客戶需求。

So on cash flow, we expect improvement in both working capital and cash profits. On interest expense, you see in fourth quarter a material increase on a year-on-year basis. And again, really comes from 2 components. First, the impact that it has on floating rate debt, and particularly [CP]. That's up significantly, as you know.

因此，在現金流方面，我們預計營運資金和現金利潤都會有所改善。在利息支出方面，您會看到第四季度同比大幅增長。再一次，真的來自 2 個組件。首先，它對浮動利率債務的影響，尤其是 [CP]。如您所知，這一數字大幅上升。

And then second, we're carrying a slightly higher debt level, though quite comfortable within our range and our leverage metrics for heading into '23. So as you think about that interest expense, it will be larger than what -- the gap you saw in fourth quarter, simply because you get a full year of carrying the Red Collar of funding through the year.

其次，我們的債務水平略高，但在我們的範圍和我們進入 23 年的槓桿指標範圍內相當舒適。因此，當你考慮利息支出時，它會比你在第四季度看到的差距更大，這僅僅是因為你全年都在承擔紅領資金。

That said, we think we have highly competitive rates on our debt going through. We have great access to the markets that fund our overall model.

也就是說，我們認為我們的債務利率極具競爭力。我們可以很好地進入為我們的整體模型提供資金的市場。

So on capital spending, as you saw from our press release, we spent just under $700 million. I expect that could go up a little bit as we look at 2023, and that's really in a couple of areas. First, we're going to complete Tonganoxie as that comes online in the second half and that we talked already about the Red Collar facilities. We have great plans for those as we're going to significantly increase our overall capacity for our Hill's business, which operates in a terrific segment, and that investment obviously will have capital spending.

因此，正如您從我們的新聞稿中看到的那樣，在資本支出方面，我們花費了不到 7 億美元。我預計到 2023 年，這一數字可能會有所上升，這實際上是在幾個方面。首先，我們將在下半年上線完成 Tonganoxie，我們已經討論過 Red Collar 設施。我們對這些有很好的計劃，因為我們將顯著提高我們希爾業務的整體能力，該業務在一個非常好的部分運營，而且這項投資顯然會有資本支出。

In addition, we invest in sustainability type efforts like recyclable tube, which we think are important. We'll continue to roll that out in a prudent manner. And we'll continue to invest in our IT capabilities, including our S/4HANA journey that we're well underway. So overall, we're comfortable with the position heading into '23, and that will expand cash flow at a material level on a year-on-year basis.

此外，我們投資於可持續發展類型的努力，例如我們認為很重要的可回收管。我們將繼續以謹慎的方式推出它。我們將繼續投資於我們的 IT 能力，包括我們正在進行的 S/4HANA 之旅。因此，總的來說，我們對進入 23 年的職位感到滿意，這將同比在物質層面擴大現金流。

Yes. The only thing I would add is, strategically these investments are all around positioning us for long-term growth and success. A lot of discussion goes into the choices we make around our capital investments. And the supply chain and certainly the IT team are very focused on ensuring that the money is being put into areas that are going to give us improved capabilities moving forward and allow us to weather some of the storms that you've seen over the last 3 years where we've recognized the challenges and generated real opportunities coming out of those, and that certainly has driven the top line of the company.

是的。我唯一要補充的是，從戰略上講，這些投資都是圍繞著我們的長期增長和成功定位。關於我們圍繞資本投資做出的選擇，有很多討論。供應鏈，當然還有 IT 團隊非常專注於確保將資金投入到能夠提高我們前進能力的領域，並讓我們能夠度過過去 3 年你所看到的一些風暴多年來，我們已經認識到挑戰並從中產生了真正的機會，這無疑推動了公司的收入增長。

So with that, let me just finish off. I think that's the end of the questions. '22 was another year of strong progress for the business in terms of sales, market shares and productivity that moved through the P&L, but more importantly, the capabilities that we're building across the organization. We're excited to see the leverage moving through the P&L, and we'll see that continue in 2023 that will allow us to deliver the investment to sustain good top line growth and obviously very focused on delivering shareholder value moving forward.

那麼，讓我結束吧。我想問題到此結束。 22 年是業務在銷售、市場份額和生產率方面取得長足進步的又一年，通過損益表，但更重要的是，我們在整個組織中建立的能力。我們很高興看到槓桿在損益表中的變化，我們將看到這種情況在 2023 年繼續，這將使我們能夠進行投資以維持良好的收入增長，並且顯然非常專注於為股東創造價值。

We'll see everyone, I hope down in CAGNY in February, where we can talk a little bit about more of our plans in terms of how we're seeing '23 unfold. But I'd be remiss not to thank all the Colgate people listening on the call for an extraordinary year in 2022, a lot of challenges, but we recognize the opportunities that we had in front of us, and I wish all of you a happy and successful 2023. Thanks, everyone.

我們會看到每個人，我希望二月份在 CAGNY，在那裡我們可以就我們如何看待 '23 展開討論更多我們的計劃。但我要感謝所有聽取電話會議的高露潔人，感謝他們在 2022 年度過了不平凡的一年，挑戰很多，但我們認識到擺在我們面前的機遇，祝大家幸福2023 年成功。謝謝大家。

The conference has now concluded. We thank you for attending today's call, and you may now disconnect your lines.

會議現已結束。我們感謝您參加今天的電話會議，您現在可以掛斷電話了。