Colliers International Group Inc (CIGI) 2023 Q1 法說會逐字稿

Welcome to the Colliers International First Quarter Investors Conference Call. Today's call is being recorded. Legal counsel requires us to advise that the discussion scheduled to take place today may contain forward-looking statements that involve known and unknown risks and uncertainties. Actual results may be materially different from any future results, performance or achievements contemplated in the forward-looking statements.

歡迎參加高力國際第一季度投資者電話會議。今天的通話正在錄音中。法律顧問要求我們告知，定於今天進行的討論可能包含涉及已知和未知風險和不確定性的前瞻性陳述。實際結果可能與前瞻性陳述中預期的任何未來結果、業績或成就存在重大差異。

Additional information concerning factors that could cause actual results to materially differ from those in the forward-looking statements is contained in the company's annual information form as filed with the Canadian Securities Administrators and in the company's annual report on Form 40-F as filed with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission. As a reminder, this call is being recorded today, May 2, 2023.

有關可能導致實際結果與前瞻性陳述中的結果存在重大差異的因素的其他信息包含在公司向加拿大證券管理局提交的年度信息表和公司向加拿大證券管理局提交的 40-F 表格年度報告中。美國證券交易委員會。提醒一下，今天，即 2023 年 5 月 2 日，將錄製此電話。

At this time, for opening remarks and introductions, I would like to turn the call over to the Global Chairman and Chief Executive Officer, Mr. Jay Hennick. Please go ahead, sir.

現在，關於開場白和介紹，我想把電話轉給全球董事長兼首席執行官 Jay Hennick 先生。請繼續，先生。

Thank you, operator. Good morning, and thanks for joining us for this first quarter conference call. I'm Jay Hennick, Chairman and Chief Executive Officer of the company. And with me today is Christian Mayer, Chief Financial Officer.

謝謝你，運營商。早上好，感謝您加入我們的第一季度電話會議。我是公司董事長兼首席執行官 Jay Hennick。今天和我在一起的是首席財務官 Christian Mayer。

As always, this call is being webcast and is available on the Investor Relations section of our website, along with a presentation slide deck.

與往常一樣，此次電話會議正在進行網絡直播，可在我們網站的“投資者關係”部分以及演示幻燈片上觀看。

During our seasonally slow first quarter, investment management and outsourcing and advisory delivered robust growth. Leasing was up slightly and as expected, Capital Markets declined considerably in line with overall market conditions.

在我們季節性放緩的第一季度，投資管理、外包和諮詢實現了強勁增長。租賃小幅上漲，正如預期的那樣，資本市場與整體市場狀況一致大幅下跌。

Since our initial outlook 90 days ago, we've seen higher interest rates and challenging debt markets impact transaction volumes. Now with the additional stress on the banking system and increasing limitations on debt availability, there is more uncertainty around property valuations. Until these factors become more predictable, we expect the level of transaction activity to remain low.

自我們 90 天前的初步展望以來，我們已經看到更高的利率和具有挑戰性的債務市場影響交易量。現在，隨著銀行系統承受的額外壓力和對債務可用性的限制越來越多，房地產估值的不確定性也越來越大。在這些因素變得更加可預測之前，我們預計交易活動水平將保持低位。

Let's remember Colliers has chosen to provide an outlook unlike most others. We do this to give our shareholders our best estimate at any given point in time, and we like to do this, especially in challenging times like we're seeing now. If you step back, not much has really changed in our outlook for the full year, as you'll hear from Christian.

讓我們記住 Colliers 選擇提供與大多數其他公司不同的前景。我們這樣做是為了在任何給定時間點向我們的股東提供我們的最佳估計，我們喜歡這樣做，尤其是在我們現在看到的充滿挑戰的時期。如果你退後一步，我們對全年的展望並沒有太大改變，正如你會從克里斯蒂安那裡聽到的那樣。

Putting aside Capital Markets, the momentum from the rest of our business is very strong. Revenues from investment management and outsourcing and advisory increased 40% and 13%, respectively, in our slowest quarter. And together, these segments now represent more than 60% of our overall adjusted EBITDA.

撇開資本市場不談，我們其他業務的勢頭非常強勁。在我們表現最差的一個季度，來自投資管理、外包和諮詢的收入分別增長了 40% 和 13%。現在，這些部門加起來占我們整體調整後 EBITDA 的 60% 以上。

Having such a large proportion of our earnings coming from these revenue streams highlights the transformation of Colliers into a much more balanced, diversified and resilient company. After quarter end, we continue to build our global business by completing acquisitions in Australia and New Zealand in our Engineering & Design and

我們的收入中有很大一部分來自這些收入流，這突顯了 Colliers 正在轉變為一家更加平衡、多元化和有彈性的公司。季度結束後，我們通過完成在澳大利亞和新西蘭的工程與設計和

Project Management segments.

項目管理部分。

In addition, we announced the early redemption effective June 1 of this year of our outstanding 4% convertible notes. Eliminating these notes reduces our interest costs and simplifies our balance sheet even further. Shareholders know that Colliers has seized its greatest opportunities during challenging times. Higher interest rates and tighter access to capital really gives us a tremendous advantage in completing acquisitions, in recruiting key professionals and leaders and in scaling our newer growth engines, all of which translates into additional value for our shareholders.

此外，我們宣布從今年 6 月 1 日起提前贖回我們未償還的 4% 可轉換票據。取消這些票據可以降低我們的利息成本，並進一步簡化我們的資產負債表。股東們知道，高力國際在充滿挑戰的時期抓住了最大的機遇。更高的利率和更嚴格的資本渠道確實為我們在完成收購、招募關鍵專業人士和領導者以及擴大我們新的增長引擎方面提供了巨大的優勢，所有這些都為我們的股東帶來了額外的價值。

With that said, I'll now turn things over to Christian for a financial overview. Christian?

話雖如此，我現在將把事情交給克里斯蒂安進行財務概覽。基督教？

Thank you, Jay, and good morning. Please note that all references to revenue growth are expressed in local currency, and that the non-GAAP measures we will discuss today are as defined in the materials accompanying the call.

謝謝你，傑伊，早上好。請注意，所有提及的收入增長均以當地貨幣表示，我們今天將討論的非 GAAP 指標如電話會議隨附材料中所定義。

Revenues for our seasonally slow first quarter were $966 million, down 1% relative to the prior year quarter, which as a reminder, was an exceptional quarter for our transactional business. Our recurring n Investment Management and Outsourcing &

我們季節性放緩的第一季度收入為 9.66 億美元，比去年同期下降 1%，提醒一下，這對我們的交易業務來說是一個特殊的季度。我們經常性的 n 投資管理和外包 &

Advisory service lines generated strong growth up 40% and 13%, respectively.

諮詢服務領域分別實現了 40% 和 13% 的強勁增長。

Leasing revenues were up 2%, benefiting from continuing activity in industrial and alternative asset classes. As expected, Capital Markets declined sharply in line with overall market conditions, continuing the trend that started last fall. On an overall basis, internal revenues declined 9% entirely on lower transaction volumes.

租賃收入增長 2%，受益於工業和另類資產類別的持續活動。正如預期的那樣，資本市場與整體市場狀況一致大幅下跌，延續了去年秋天開始的趨勢。總體而言，內部收入下降了 9%，完全是由於交易量下降。

First quarter adjusted EBITDA was $105 million relative to $121 million 1 year ago, with margins at 10.8% versus 12.1% in the prior year quarter. The margin reduction is attributable to the decline in Capital Markets volume partially offset by growth in our higher-margin investment management operations as well as aggressive cost controls across the company.

第一季度調整後的 EBITDA 為 1.05 億美元，而一年前為 1.21 億美元，利潤率為 10.8%，而去年同期為 12.1%。利潤率下降的原因是資本市場交易量下降，部分被我們利潤率較高的投資管理業務的增長以及全公司積極的成本控制所抵消。

Americas revenues were $582 million, down 8% relative to the prior period. Outsourcing & Advisory was up 9%, driven by Engineering & Design, including recent acquisitions. Leasing activity was up 1%. Capital Markets, including debt origination was down 41%. Adjusted EBITDA was $54 million, down 33% from last year. The margin in the Americas was 9.3%, down 330 basis points due to the slowdown in Capital Markets.

美洲收入為 5.82 億美元，較上一時期下降 8%。受工程與設計（包括最近的收購）的推動，外包與諮詢業務增長了 9%。租賃活動增長了 1%。包括債務發行在內的資本市場下降了 41%。調整後的 EBITDA 為 5400 萬美元，比去年下降 33%。由於資本市場放緩，美洲的利潤率為 9.3%，下降了 330 個基點。

EMEA first quarter revenues were $143 million, down 2% versus the prior year period. Outsourcing & Advisory revenues were up 27%, but were offset by reduced Capital Markets transaction volume. Our EMEA transactions business has greater fixed costs that transaction operations in other parts of the world and in normal times, also generates higher margins. However, the significant decline in volume for the seasonally slow first quarter drove an adjusted EBITDA loss of $11 million versus the profit of $5 million last year.

EMEA 第一季度收入為 1.43 億美元，比去年同期下降 2%。外包和諮詢收入增長了 27%，但被資本市場交易量的減少所抵消。我們的 EMEA 交易業務的固定成本高於世界其他地區和正常時期的交易業務，也產生更高的利潤。然而，由於季節性放緩的第一季度銷量大幅下降，導致調整後的 EBITDA 虧損 1100 萬美元，而去年同期為利潤 500 萬美元。

In the Asia Pacific region, revenues were $120 million, up 7%, leasing revenues increased significantly in both industrial and office asset classes. However, Capital Markets was down 26%, given market conditions. This region is showing promising signs of recovery year-over-year after the pandemic era restrictions that extended into last year.

在亞太地區，收入為 1.2 億美元，增長 7%，工業和辦公資產類別的租賃收入均有顯著增長。然而，鑑於市場狀況，資本市場下跌了 26%。在延續到去年的大流行時代限制之後，該地區顯示出逐年復甦的良好跡象。

Adjusted EBITDA was $8 million relative to $10 million in the prior year quarter. First quarter Investment Management revenues were $121 million, up 96% excluding pass-through carried interest, driven by acquisitions and management fee growth from increased assets under management year-over-year.

調整後的 EBITDA 為 800 萬美元，而去年同期為 1000 萬美元。第一季度投資管理收入為 1.21 億美元，不包括轉手附帶權益增長 96%，這是受管理資產同比增加帶來的收購和管理費增長的推動。

Adjusted EBITDA for the quarter was $55 million, more than double the prior year quarter. Assets under management at quarter end was $97.6 billion, down slightly relative to year-end. Asset values in our portfolios primarily alternative and infrastructure assets were down modestly and mostly offset by net capital inflows from investors during the quarter. Like overall market sentiment, the fundraising environment for most asset classes remained challenging during the first quarter.

本季度調整後的 EBITDA 為 5500 萬美元，是去年同期的兩倍多。季度末管理的資產為 976 億美元，較上年末略有下降。我們投資組合中的資產價值（主要是另類資產和基礎設施資產）溫和下降，大部分被本季度投資者的淨資本流入所抵消。與整體市場情緒一樣，第一季度大多數資產類別的籌資環境仍然充滿挑戰。

However, given the alternative and infrastructure focus of our investment strategies, we believe fundraising will accelerate in the second half of the year. We expect overall AUM growth of about 10% for the full year. Our financial leverage ratio at quarter end defined as net debt to pro forma adjusted EBITDA was 2.2x, which reflects acquisitions completed during 2022 as well as seasonal working capital usage. Absent any further acquisitions, we expect our leverage to decline to around 1.8x by year-end.

然而，鑑於我們投資策略的另類和基礎設施重點，我們認為籌資將在下半年加速。我們預計全年整體資產管理規模增長約 10%。我們在季度末的財務槓桿比率定義為淨債務與備考調整後 EBITDA 之比為 2.2 倍，這反映了 2022 年完成的收購以及季節性營運資金的使用。如果沒有任何進一步的收購，我們預計到年底我們的槓桿率將下降至 1.8 倍左右。

Last week, we took the opportunity to increase credit availability under our revolving credit facility to $1.75 billion, giving us more than $800 million of total liquidity for opportunities to strengthen and expand our business. Back in early February, we provided our initial outlook for 2023. Since then, a significant banking crisis has occurred, availability of credit has tightened further and the level of uncertainty around asset valuations has increased, causing us to revise our outlook for the year.

上週，我們藉此機會將循環信貸額度下的信貸可用性增加到 17.5 億美元，為我們提供了超過 8 億美元的總流動資金，用於加強和擴大我們的業務。早在 2 月初，我們就對 2023 年做出了初步展望。此後發生了嚴重的銀行業危機，信貸供應進一步收緊，資產估值的不確定性水平增加，導致我們修改了今年的展望。

We now expect lower volumes in our transactional business to persist for the remainder of the year. We expect Capital Markets to be down 30% to 40% for the second quarter with year-over-year comparisons becoming more favorable in the third and fourth quarters. We expect modest -- sorry, we expect robust revenue growth to continue in our recurring service lines, investment management and outsourcing and advisory. We will also continue to be vigilant on cost control across our company.

我們現在預計我們的交易業務量將在今年剩餘時間內持續下降。我們預計第二季度資本市場將下降 30% 至 40%，而第三和第四季度的同比比較將變得更加有利。我們預計適度 - 抱歉，我們預計我們的經常性服務線、投資管理以及外包和諮詢將繼續強勁的收入增長。我們還將繼續對整個公司的成本控制保持警惕。

Overall, adjusted EBITDA should be up between 6% and 14% and adjusted earnings per share should be down slightly to up slightly versus prior year. On higher interest costs as well as the impact of a larger proportion of earnings coming from non-wholly owned operations.

總體而言，調整後的 EBITDA 應增長 6% 至 14%，調整後的每股收益應與上年相比略有下降或略有上升。更高的利息成本以及來自非全資業務的更大比例的收益的影響。

That concludes my prepared remarks. I would now like to open the call for questions. Operator, can you please open the line?

我準備好的發言到此結束。我現在想開始提問。接線員，你能打開線路嗎？

(Operator Instructions) Your first question comes from Chandni Luthra with Goldman Sachs.

（操作員說明）您的第一個問題來自高盛的 Chandni Luthra。

I'd like to start with the 10.8% margin that you reported in the quarter. We understand that things got very difficult starting with events of the banking industry on March 8, 9, basically one week into March. But the truth is that sizable part of the quarter was already done by then. So help us understand how was the business, especially margins trending before March 8? And how much was sort of the margin decline attributed to events after March 8? And how do you figure EMEA and all this because nothing changed significantly in EMEA. So help us understand that dynamic, please.

我想從您在本季度報告的 10.8% 的利潤率開始。我們了解到，從 3 月 8 日、9 日發生的銀行業事件開始，事情變得非常困難，基本上是進入 3 月的一周。但事實是，該季度的相當大一部分到那時已經完成。那麼請幫助我們了解 3 月 8 日之前的業務，尤其是利潤率趨勢如何？ 3 月 8 日之後發生的事件導致的利潤率下降有多少？您如何看待 EMEA 和所有這一切，因為 EMEA 沒有發生重大變化。請幫助我們了解這種動態。

Chandni, it's Christian here, and thanks for the question. As you know, Q1 is our seasonal slow quarter in Capital Markets and in leasing as well. And the Capital Markets revenue impacts were pronounced in the quarter really throughout the quarter, and you got to realize that we released our outlook in the first week of February. And some of these things were developing throughout the quarter. Of course, the banking crisis was later in the quarter, but these are factors that we're developing through the quarter. And as a result of our -- the seasonal slow quarter as well as the revenue impacts, which are more pronounced in that seasonal slow quarter, especially in EMEA, that had a significant impact on our margin.

Chandni，我是 Christian，謝謝你的提問。如您所知，第一季度是我們在資本市場和租賃領域的季節性淡季。資本市場收入的影響在整個季度都非常明顯，你必須意識到我們在 2 月的第一周發布了我們的展望。其中一些事情在整個季度都在發展。當然，銀行業危機是在本季度晚些時候發生的，但這些是我們在本季度開發的因素。由於我們 - 季節性放緩的季度以及收入影響，這些影響在那個季節性放緩的季度更為明顯，特別是在 EMEA ，這對我們的利潤率產生了重大影響。

And secondly, I would also -- to continue the question about margin impacts, in the second, third and fourth quarters, we will have higher baseline revenues, even if they're down year-over-year. So we expect to have higher margins in those quarters. We're also, as I mentioned in my prepared remarks, implementing cost control actions that will have a significant impact on our margin for the balance of the year.

其次，我還要 - 繼續關於利潤率影響的問題，在第二、第三和第四季度，我們將有更高的基準收入，即使它們同比下降。因此，我們預計這些季度的利潤率會更高。正如我在準備好的發言中提到的那樣，我們還在實施成本控制措施，這將對我們今年餘下的利潤率產生重大影響。

So I guess for my second question, I would like to sort of dig deeper into that 2Q to 4Q, where you do have margins -- implied margins at 16.7% based on the guide, like given your second quarter Capital Markets is down just as much as first quarter, and there is obviously economic uncertainty that you talked about for the back half of the year. Like how do you get comfortable around that implied margin improvement from here?

所以我想對於我的第二個問題，我想更深入地研究第二季度到第四季度，在那裡你確實有利潤率——根據指南，隱含利潤率為 16.7%，就像你的第二季度資本市場一樣下跌和第一季度一樣多，顯然你談到了下半年的經濟不確定性。就像你如何從這裡開始對隱含的利潤率提高感到滿意？

And what sort of cost cuts are you embedding? How much of it is -- is there any headcount reduction? What are the other cost measures? How much of it is in Europe versus how much of it is in Americas? If you could throw any more detail there, it would be very helpful.

您嵌入了什麼樣的成本削減措施？其中有多少——是否有裁員？其他成本措施是什麼？其中有多少在歐洲，有多少在美洲？如果您可以在那裡提供更多詳細信息，那將非常有幫助。

Sure, Chandni. Just let me reiterate the point around the higher level of baseline revenues in Capital Markets and in leasing in the second, third and fourth quarters. That will have a direct impact on the margin from those businesses for those future quarters, even if revenues are down significantly as we expect, they will be at least in the second quarter. The cost control actions we have taken across the company have been pretty significant, in particular, around non-revenue producing headcount. We continue to be actively looking for and recruiting revenue-producing headcount. That is our goal to grow the business. But certainly, non-revenue-producing headcount has been an area of focus, as has discretionary spend, as has reduction of office space and as has efficiency improvements. And on a full year basis, we would expect that would impact 2% -- have a 2% impact on our full year margin.

當然，錢德尼。讓我重申一下關於第二、第三和第四季度資本市場和租賃的較高基線收入水平的觀點。這將對未來幾個季度這些業務的利潤率產生直接影響，即使收入像我們預期的那樣大幅下降，至少在第二季度也會如此。我們在整個公司採取的成本控制措施非常重要，尤其是在非創收人員方面。我們繼續積極尋找和招聘創收員工。這是我們發展業務的目標。但可以肯定的是，非創收員工人數一直是一個重點領域，可自由支配的支出也是如此，辦公空間的減少和效率的提高也是如此。在全年的基礎上，我們預計這將影響 2%——對我們的全年利潤率產生 2% 的影響。

Your next question comes from Michael Doumet with Scotiabank.

你的下一個問題來自加拿大豐業銀行的 Michael Doumet。

Maybe I guess another way to get around the last couple of questions. If I step back and look at the 2023 EBITDA guide and I believe last quarter, you highlighted that M&A would contribute about $75 million of rollover EBITDA in 2023. So that puts organic EBITDA for '23 at $705 million. Now it looks like the organic EBITDA declined by $25 million to $30 million in Q1 alone, which already puts you at the low end of the 2023 guidance. So is the expectation that on a whole organic EBITDA declines in Q2, but in the second half, it starts to increase again? Just trying to break those numbers down a little bit.

也許我想用另一種方法來解決最後幾個問題。如果我退後一步看一下 2023 年 EBITDA 指南，我相信上個季度，您強調併購將在 2023 年貢獻約 7500 萬美元的展期 EBITDA。因此，23 年的有機 EBITDA 為 7.05 億美元。現在看來，有機 EBITDA 僅在第一季度就下降了 2500 萬美元至 3000 萬美元，這已經使您處於 2023 年指導的低端。那麼，是否預期第二季度整體有機 EBITDA 下降，但在下半年又開始增加？只是想把這些數字分解一下。

Yes, Michael, that's a good question. Certainly, Q2, we will have some organic EBITDA declines. As I mentioned, a 30% to 40% decline in Capital Markets revenues is going to drive -- is going to have an impact on our organic EBITDA that we generate. And now looking ahead to the second half of the year, the comparisons get considerably easier, in particular Q4, which is the seasonal high quarter in the Capital Markets business. And if you recall, last fall, that business segment of ours was down 40% year-on-year. So depending on how conditions improved in the fourth quarter, I know that will have an impact on the overall margin profile and the organic EBITDA profile.

是的，邁克爾，這是個好問題。當然，第二季度，我們將有一些有機 EBITDA 下降。正如我所提到的，資本市場收入下降 30% 至 40% 將推動 - 將對我們產生的有機 EBITDA 產生影響。現在展望下半年，比較變得容易得多，尤其是第四季度，這是資本市場業務的季節性旺季。如果你還記得，去年秋天，我們的業務部門同比下降了 40%。因此，根據第四季度情況的改善情況，我知道這將對整體利潤率和有機 EBITDA 狀況產生影響。

Got it. So embedded in the guide, I guess, in the second half is you have moderating Capital Markets declines and increasing organic growth in Investment Management. And one of your comments, Christian, I think you commented that you expect AUM and IM to grow about 10%. What gives you the visibility or the confidence that could happen through the balance of the year?

知道了。所以嵌入指南中，我猜，在下半年，你有緩和的資本市場下降和增加投資管理的有機增長。 Christian，你的評論之一，我想你評論說你預計 AUM 和 IM 增長約 10%。是什麼給了你在今年餘下時間裡可能發生的知名度或信心？

We have active fundraising that is ongoing in our operations, maybe Jay can comment further on that. But certainly, it's -- we have infrastructure-oriented funds that are in the market. Our alternative funds are in the market. We think there is capital in investors' hands that needs to be deployed. And we believe in the second half that's going to start to create opportunities for us.

我們的運營中正在進行積極的籌款活動，也許 Jay 可以對此發表進一步評論。但可以肯定的是，我們在市場上有面向基礎設施的基金。我們的另類基金在市場上。我們認為投資者手中有需要部署的資金。我們相信下半年將開始為我們創造機會。

Yes. And the nature, of course, of our investment management business with alternative asset classes, needs-based assets, et cetera. If our fundraising for the first quarter, although soft was better than most and the number of people that are number of potential investors is higher now than ever before, especially in our asset classes, there's just more of a delay in allocating capital. So we are cautiously optimistic, but probably more optimistic than cautiously that towards the second, third and fourth quarter, we'll have a significant uptick in funds raised, we have a significant distribution capability across the board, and we've had excellent meetings, especially during these kinds of times.

是的。當然，還有我們投資管理業務的性質，包括另類資產類別、基於需求的資產等。如果我們第一季度的籌資活動比大多數人都好，而且現在潛在投資者的人數比以往任何時候都多，尤其是在我們的資產類別中，那麼資本分配就會有更多的延遲。因此，我們持謹慎樂觀態度，但可能比謹慎樂觀更樂觀的是，到第二、第三和第四季度，我們籌集的資金將大幅增加，我們擁有強大的全面分銷能力，我們舉行了精彩的會議，尤其是在這種時候。

So I think the outlook, which is the question you have around assets under management at the end of the year being up, say, 10% over last year, I think that, that is hopefully a conservative estimate of where we'll end up.

所以我認為前景，這是你對年底管理資產的問題，比去年增加了 10%，我認為，這是對我們最終結果的保守估計.

Really interesting. And maybe just to squeeze a follow-up. For the Q1 AUM flat sequentially, any way you can break down fundraising redemption and maybe the value or the change in value of the assets?

十分有趣。也許只是為了擠壓後續行動。對於 Q1 的 AUM 連續持平，你有什麼方法可以分解籌款贖回以及資產的價值或價值變化？

Yes. They're all very modest, Michael. I mean, you're talking about 0.5 point, 0.75 of a point in each, all very modest.

是的。他們都很謙虛，邁克爾。我的意思是，你說的是 0.5 分，每分 0.75 分，都非常適中。

Your next question comes from Stephen MacLeod with BMO Capital Markets.

您的下一個問題來自 BMO Capital Markets 的 Stephen MacLeod。

Lots of great color on what you're seeing in the marketplace right now. But I'm just curious if -- what you're hearing from your clients and potential clients who are sort of taking a pause on transaction activity. What are you hearing from them in terms of what they would, like pent-up demand as they get into 2024? Are you hearing any color around that from your clients?

你現在在市場上看到的東西有很多很棒的顏色。但我只是好奇——你從你的客戶和潛在客戶那裡聽到了什麼，他們正在暫停交易活動。你從他們那裡聽到了什麼，比如他們進入 2024 年時被壓抑的需求？你從你的客戶那裡聽到任何顏色嗎？

Well, that's a great question. We've got tons of color around that. I mean, everybody is talking about it. There's all kinds of town halls. There's all kinds of industry events that are talking about this very issue. There's huge appetite, both buyers and sellers to buy assets. And we see it more so in our business than probably many of our peers because in our investment management arm, every year we're looking to divest certain assets and buy other assets and have allocations to do both. And so there's tremendous appetite to buy and sell.

嗯，這是一個很好的問題。我們周圍有很多顏色。我的意思是，每個人都在談論它。有各種各樣的市政廳。各種各樣的行業活動都在討論這個問題。買家和賣家都有巨大的胃口購買資產。在我們的業務中，我們比許多同行更能看到這一點，因為在我們的投資管理部門，每年我們都在尋求剝離某些資產併購買其他資產，並有分配來做這兩件事。因此，買賣的胃口很大。

The problem is, as we've alluded to a couple of times in our prepared remarks is how do you value some of these assets, how do you value them? And it's not just higher interest rates. It's availability of capital, and it's also the negative sentiment that some people have around mortgages that will come due in the near term. So there's a lot of, let's call it, headwinds in this entire industry, but Capital Markets transactions are happening, and we continue to think that they will happen more and more as the year goes on because the best assets are being purchased primarily for cash or very low debt levels because debt is just not available.

問題是，正如我們在準備好的評論中多次提到的那樣，您如何評價其中一些資產，您如何評價它們？不僅僅是更高的利率。這是資金的可用性，也是一些人對短期內到期的抵押貸款的負面情緒。因此，整個行業有很多逆風，我們稱之為逆風，但資本市場交易正在發生，我們繼續認為，隨著時間的推移，它們會越來越多地發生，因為最好的資產主要是用現金購買的或非常低的債務水平，因為債務根本無法獲得。

And the comments earlier in our prepared remarks around the new realities, we all read the paper. This is crystal clear. I hate to say it, but any (expletive) should know that this is what happens out there. And -- but we are in the business of helping to make transactions happen. And we think that as things stabilize, they will happen and they will happen quickly, but it's just not there yet, Stephen.

在我們圍繞新現實準備好的評論中，我們都閱讀了這篇論文。這是非常清楚的。我不想這麼說，但任何（髒話）都應該知道這就是那裡發生的事情。而且 - 但我們的業務是幫助實現交易。我們認為，隨著事情的穩定，它們將會發生，而且會很快發生，但它還沒有發生，斯蒂芬。

Okay. That's great color. And then just around the EMEA business. You made an interesting point, Christian, about the higher proportion of fixed costs in EMEA. Is there a way to kind of quantify what -- like what impact that would have had to the EMEA business relative to the Americas where the cost structure is much more flexible? Like I guess would you expect to see that kind of pressure continuing in EMEA before transactions begin to pick back up?

好的。那是很棒的顏色。然後就圍繞 EMEA 業務。克里斯蒂安，你提出了一個有趣的觀點，即歐洲、中東和非洲地區的固定成本比例較高。有沒有一種方法可以量化什麼——比如相對於成本結構更加靈活的美洲，這對 EMEA 業務會有什麼影響？就像我猜想，在交易開始回升之前，您是否希望在 EMEA 看到這種壓力繼續存在？

Yes. I mean, look, Stephen, the EMEA business was especially -- I know especially challenging Capital Markets in the first quarter, down 55% year-on-year. We don't expect that kind of a variance to continue -- that type of year-over-year variance to continue. And certainly, as we go through the year, we should be able to exceed that fixed cost base and generate profitability there. That's our expectation. And in terms of the Americas, it is different in the Americas. We have a highly variable cost structure in the Americas. Our revenue producers are fully commission-based. And that drives the difference between EMEA and the Americas.

是的。我的意思是，史蒂芬，歐洲、中東和非洲業務尤其是——我知道第一季度資本市場尤其具有挑戰性，同比下降 55%。我們預計這種差異不會繼續——這種同比差異會持續下去。當然，隨著我們度過這一年，我們應該能夠超過固定成本基礎並在那裡產生盈利能力。這是我們的期望。就美洲而言，在美洲是不同的。我們在美洲有一個高度可變的成本結構。我們的收入來源完全基於佣金。這推動了 EMEA 和美洲之間的差異。

But notwithstanding all that, strong businesses in the U.S. and in Europe, I mean, our business in Europe is very strong. Christian mentioned the compensation structure, it's more of an investment banking type compensation structure where there's very modest salaries and then a profit sharing in the success over the course of the year. And during the first quarter, revenues are naturally lower and progressively go up over time. So that's why we're highly confident that, that margin will change as the year progresses in EMEA as an example.

但儘管如此，美國和歐洲的強大業務，我的意思是，我們在歐洲的業務非常強大。克里斯蒂安提到了薪酬結構，它更像是一種投資銀行類型的薪酬結構，薪水非常低，然後在一年中的成功中分享利潤。在第一季度，收入自然會降低，然後隨著時間的推移逐漸上升。因此，這就是為什麼我們非常有信心，以 EMEA 為例，隨著時間的推移，利潤率將發生變化。

And if you take a look at our business in Asia Pac, we did very well relative to the other parts of the industry, I think, in our Asia Pac business across the board. Now we were helped somewhat because the prior year, China was virtually closed down. So lots of moving pieces. But we think exceptional platforms and raring to go as the markets change.

如果你看一下我們在亞太地區的業務，我認為，相對於行業的其他部分，我們在亞太地區的業務全面發展。現在我們得到了一些幫助，因為前一年，中國實際上已經關閉了。這麼多動人的作品。但我們認為卓越的平台和渴望隨著市場的變化而改變。

Your next question comes from Daryl Young with TD Securities.

您的下一個問題來自道明證券的 Daryl Young。

(technical difficulty) in challenging markets. Would you see the $65 million EBITDA bogey is still achievable just given what's transpired on the Capital Market side?

（技術難度）在充滿挑戰的市場中。考慮到資本市場方面發生的事情，您是否認為 6500 萬美元的 EBITDA 柏忌仍然可以實現？

Daryl, it's Christian here. I think we missed the first 5 seconds to your question, just the line was quiet. Could you repeat it?

達里爾，這裡是基督徒。我想我們錯過了您問題的前 5 秒，只是線路很安靜。你能重複一遍嗎？

Sorry. Yes, just some of the commentary you made around the opportunities for acquisitions in this disruptive environment. And the question is, do you still see the $65 million of acquired EBITDA as achievable this year?

對不起。是的，這只是您圍繞這種顛覆性環境中的收購機會發表的一些評論。問題是，您是否仍然認為今年可以實現 6500 萬美元的收購 EBITDA？

Well, we set a goal -- as you know, we set a goal of growing 10% of the prior year's EBITDA on average over 5 years. Last year, we tripled that number, maybe more than tripled that number. So -- and as you can see, we in the process, built a very significant Investment Management and Outsourcing & Advisory segment. So we have a very interesting pipeline of transactions. I'm not -- I mean, we're not pushing to do another year of $60 million of EBITDA in acquisitions, unless there's something special out there, and there are a few things.

好吧，我們設定了一個目標——如你所知，我們設定的目標是在 5 年內平均增長上一年 EBITDA 的 10%。去年，我們將這個數字翻了三倍，也許還不止三倍。所以——正如你所看到的，我們在這個過程中建立了一個非常重要的投資管理和外包與諮詢部門。所以我們有一個非常有趣的交易管道。我不是——我的意思是，我們不會推動再進行一年 6000 萬美元的 EBITDA 收購，除非有一些特別的東西，而且有一些東西。

And I think that the markets will allow us to take advantage as we have in the past of some unique additions to strengthen our business. But where they're going to be and what it will total by year-end, I can't really predict that right now. But what I can predict is that there's fewer people in the market buying businesses that it's impossible to get financing to buy those businesses. So PEs on the sidelines and it creates a great opportunity for somebody like us that has, I wouldn't say, unlimited access to capital, but a lot of capital availability to really add an interesting part of our business when it's right. But we're not going to do something as you would expect, Daryl. We've never done this before. We're only going to buy things that we think are special and are going to add to what we think is a special company.

而且我認為市場將使我們能夠像過去一樣利用一些獨特的補充來加強我們的業務。但是到年底他們會去哪里以及總數是多少，我現在無法真正預測。但我可以預測的是，市場上購買企業的人越來越少，不可能獲得融資來購買這些企業。因此，PE 處於觀望狀態，這為像我們這樣的人創造了一個很好的機會，我不會說，他們可以無限制地獲得資本，但有很多可用的資本，可以在合適的時候真正為我們的業務增加一個有趣的部分。但我們不會像您期望的那樣做某事，Daryl。我們以前從未這樣做過。我們只會購買我們認為特別的東西，並會增加我們認為特別的公司。

Got it. Okay. And then secondly, just with some of the challenges in the office segment. Could you maybe highlight for us what opportunities you're seeing out of that and maybe they're in different service lines beyond just the Capital Markets transactions, but just what this level of disruption is doing in terms of your other advisory services?

知道了。好的。其次，只是在辦公領域面臨一些挑戰。您能否向我們強調您從中看到了哪些機會，也許它們在資本市場交易之外的不同服務領域，但就您的其他諮詢服務而言，這種程度的破壞正在做什麼？

Yes. So the office environment, and we typically don't really comment specifically on any asset class, but there's a lot of people talking about the office environment and office utilization and return to office and what does that mean to old buildings versus new buildings and you're hearing that in newer buildings the quality of the buildings are such that they're able to generate higher rents per square foot than the lesser-quality buildings, those are all the factors that we see.

是的。所以辦公環境，我們通常不會真正具體評論任何資產類別，但有很多人在談論辦公環境和辦公室利用率以及重返辦公室，這對舊建築和新建築意味著什麼，你聽說在較新的建築物中，建築物的質量使得它們能夠產生比質量較差的建築物更高的每平方英尺租金，這些都是我們看到的因素。

And interestingly, on the Investment Management side, our Rockwood capital business is actively working with 1 or 2 office owners in New York to repurpose very significant and well-known buildings into multifamily residential. Those are long-term projects, probably 4 or 5 years to get completed.

有趣的是，在投資管理方面，我們的 Rockwood 資本業務正在積極與紐約的 1 或 2 個辦公室所有者合作，將非常重要和知名的建築重新用於多戶住宅。這些都是長期項目，大概需要四五年才能完成。

So the whole office market is going through a flux right now. And to say it's uncertain, it's probably the best way to conclude because each building is different, the locations of the building, the age of the building, all of those things are different and will have an impact on the ultimate value of the business and/or how much people want to invest to repurpose that building to a more desired location. I hope that gives you the color you want.

所以整個寫字樓市場現在正在經歷一個變化。說它不確定，這可能是最好的結論方式，因為每棟建築都不同，建築的位置，建築的年齡，所有這些都不同，都會對企業的最終價值產生影響， /或人們想要投資多少來將該建築物重新用於更理想的位置。我希望這能給你你想要的顏色。

Your next question comes from Stephen Sheldon with William Blair.

你的下一個問題來自斯蒂芬謝爾頓和威廉布萊爾。

Just a couple of modeling ones. And first one, just as we think about the changes to the 2023 guidance, can you help frame what you've layered in for the 2 recent acquisitions in Australia and New Zealand for adjusted EBITDA? And then apologies if I missed this, but also what's the total expected inorganic M&A contribution for the year now kind of relative to the -- I believe you guided to $75 million last quarter. Just any color on those two?

只是幾個模型。第一個，正如我們考慮 2023 年指南的變化一樣，您能否幫助構建您為最近在澳大利亞和新西蘭進行的 2 筆收購調整後的 EBITDA 所做的分層？然後，如果我錯過了這一點，我深表歉意，但今年的預期無機併購貢獻總額是多少——我相信你上個季度指導了 7500 萬美元。只是那兩個顏色？

Sure. Stephen, the acquisitions in New Zealand and Australia are what we consider tuck-in acquisitions. So pretty small impact on revenue and in EBITDA for the year and likewise on purchase price for those 2 acquisitions. In terms of the acquisition pro forma impact for the next 3 quarters, it's around $40 million of EBITDA that we expect to add from completed acquisitions.

當然。斯蒂芬，在新西蘭和澳大利亞的收購是我們認為的收購。對當年的收入和 EBITDA 的影響非常小，同樣對這兩項收購的購買價格也有影響。就未來 3 個季度的收購備考影響而言，我們預計從已完成的收購中增加約 4000 萬美元的 EBITDA。

Okay. Perfect. And then I just wanted to ask about interest expense over the rest of the year, given the early redemption. It was $23 million this quarter. I guess, so how should we expect that to trend over the rest of the year barring any significant surprises from the Fed?

好的。完美的。然後我只想問一下今年剩餘時間的利息支出，考慮到提前贖回。本季度為 2300 萬美元。我想，除非美聯儲有任何重大意外，否則我們應該如何預期今年餘下時間的趨勢呢？

Yes. I mean, the interest expense in the first quarter is obviously significantly higher than it was in Q1 of last year. Given the acquisition activity we undertook as well as the pretty much 200 basis point increase in floating rates year-on-year for that 40% piece of our debt that is fixed -- sorry, that is floating.

是的。我的意思是，一季度的利息支出明顯高於去年一季度。考慮到我們進行的收購活動，以及我們 40% 的固定債務的浮動利率同比增加了近 200 個基點——對不起，那是浮動的。

So as we look ahead, the redemption of the converts will reduce interest expense by about 2.5 -- $2.2 million per quarter. Going forward, floating rates continue to rise. So that's going to be an impact for the rest of the year a little bit. And then, of course, we will generate cash flow and be paying down revolver balances as we proceed through the year. So that's going to have a reducing impact on interest expense. So a bunch of moving parts there, Stephen, but certainly, the Q1 interest, you can take that and kind of build from there using the elements I mentioned.

因此，展望未來，贖回皈依者將使利息支出減少約 2.5 - 每季度 220 萬美元。展望未來，浮動利率將繼續上升。所以這將對今年餘下的時間產生一點影響。然後，當然，我們將產生現金流並在我們繼續這一年時償還循環餘額。因此，這將減少對利息支出的影響。所以那裡有一堆移動部件，斯蒂芬，但當然，Q1 的興趣，你可以使用我提到的元素從那裡開始構建。

Your next question comes from Frederic Bastien with Raymond James.

你的下一個問題來自 Frederic Bastien 和 Raymond James。

Just wanted to go back on the guidance here. Your prepared comments about the remainder of 2023 were understandably more cautious than they were in the middle of February, yet your revised financial outlook implies a largely unchanged EBITDA guidance for the rest of the year. So just curious, why did you decide to hold the line here and maybe not -- go little bit more conservative with respect to the guidance?

只是想回到這裡的指導。您準備好的關於 2023 年剩餘時間的評論比 2 月中旬時更加謹慎，這是可以理解的，但您修改後的財務前景意味著今年剩餘時間的 EBITDA 指引基本沒有變化。所以很好奇，為什麼你決定在這裡堅持到底，也許不——在指導方面稍微保守一點？

I don't -- you're going in and out a little, Fred, so I didn't hear the whole question, Christian didn't either. So we don't know if it's his or mine. So can you try that again?

我沒有——你有點進進出出，弗雷德，所以我沒有聽到整個問題，克里斯蒂安也沒有。所以我們不知道這是他的還是我的。那你能再試一次嗎？

Sure. I'll speak up. I apologize if I cut, but your prepared comments about the remainder of 2023 were understandably more cautious than they were in the middle of February yet. Your revised financial outlook implies largely unchanged in EBITDA guidance for the rest of the year. So just curious why you decided to hold line for the rest of the year, not maybe go down a bit more conservatively and point for slightly lower EBITDA. Just curious what are your thoughts there?

當然。我會說出來的。如果我削減了，我深表歉意，但可以理解的是，您準備好的關於 2023 年剩餘時間的評論比 2 月中旬時更加謹慎。您修改後的財務前景意味著今年剩餘時間的 EBITDA 指引基本沒有變化。所以很好奇為什麼你決定在今年餘下的時間裡保持不變，而不是更保守一點並指向略低的 EBITDA。只是好奇你在那裡有什麼想法？

Well, so let's start with -- we're sorry, we give guidance today this quarter. But -- and Christian, maybe you have the answer he's looking for there, but...

好吧，讓我們開始吧——很抱歉，我們今天在本季度給出了指導。但是——克里斯蒂安，也許你有他正在尋找的答案，但是……

We have, I think, dialed back our guidance a little bit, but certainly, Frederic, you're right, the Q1 piece of it is a large component of the change in the guide. Look, we build our guidance from the bottom up. We talk to our operators in the field in all of our businesses, the recurring businesses much more easy to predict. And of course, the Capital Markets business, the most difficult to predict. But we do have good information from the field, and we do have pipelines of activity that we expect will be completed here in the back half of the year. And we also have the fact that the comparatives get meaningfully less challenging in Q3 and Q4. So as I mentioned, Q4 of '22 was down 40% in Capital Markets. So that will be a relatively -- we believe, a relatively easy comparison. And as such, less risk in terms of -- on a year-over-year basis in that quarter.

我認為，我們已經稍微調低了我們的指導，但當然，弗雷德里克，你是對的，第一季度是指南變化的重要組成部分。看，我們自下而上地建立我們的指導。我們與所有業務領域的運營商交談，經常性業務更容易預測。當然，資本市場業務最難預測。但我們確實從該領域獲得了很好的信息，並且我們確實有我們預計將在今年下半年在這裡完成的活動管道。而且我們還有一個事實，即比較在第三季度和第四季度的挑戰性變得有意義。因此，正如我提到的，22 年第四季度資本市場下跌了 40%。所以這將是一個相對——我們相信，一個相對容易的比較。因此，就該季度的同比而言，風險較小。

Now just turning to Outsourcing & Advisory. You had nice top line growth, 13% in low currency. Are you able to break down that percentage and between internal and (inaudible) growth? And just maybe comment on how well the business is running from an organic standpoint?

現在只轉向外包和諮詢。你有不錯的收入增長，13% 的低貨幣。您能否分解該百分比以及內部和（聽不清）增長之間的百分比？也許只是從有機的角度評論業務的運行情況？

Yes. Frederic, we don't provide that breakdown, but there were some acquisitions and they're smaller ones.

是的。弗雷德里克，我們沒有提供這種細分，但有一些收購，而且規模較小。

And how is the business going. Are you still confident that you -- with the revenue profile you're generating in the growth?

以及業務進展如何。您是否仍然對您有信心 - 憑藉您在增長中產生的收入狀況？

Yes. No, absolutely. I mean, the businesses; Engineering & Design, Project Management, Property Management are all performing very well through these times, and we expect that to continue for the balance of the year, for sure.

是的。不，絕對。我的意思是，企業；工程與設計、項目管理、物業管理在這段時間裡都表現得非常好，我們預計今年餘下的時間裡這種情況肯定會持續下去。

Yes. We're very excited about that -- we're very excited about our Outsourcing & Advisory business and expect to see the same level of growth or better as the year progresses.

是的。我們對此感到非常興奮——我們對我們的外包和諮詢業務感到非常興奮，並希望隨著今年的進展看到相同水平或更好的增長。

(Operator Instructions) Your next question comes from Daryl Young with TD Securities.

（操作員說明）你的下一個問題來自道明證券的 Daryl Young。

Yes, just a quick follow-up in terms of some of the opportunities for market share wins in this environment. Would you say that you're seeing an increasing number of smaller players in the industry approach you and look to partner with diversified platforms? And do you expect to see some of the long-term consolidation trends towards large, diversified players accelerate today?

是的，就在這種環境下贏得市場份額的一些機會而言，只是快速跟進。您是否會說您看到業內越來越多的小型企業與您接洽並希望與多元化平台合作？您是否預計今天會出現針對大型多元化企業的一些長期整合趨勢？

That's a great question. We get approached all the time from the big players. And -- but we have continued to focus on just building our platform one step at a time, like the Nordics acquisitions last year. We've got another couple of similar ones that we're working on now, none of the material, but all of them are additive in their own regions quite significantly. So you might -- I'm using the Nordics as an example, we're now the #1 player in the Nordics, but we have a big gap around property management in that region. We don't do it very much. We do it in some markets, not in other markets.

這是一個很好的問題。大公司一直在接近我們。而且——但我們繼續專注於一步一步地構建我們的平台，就像去年對 Nordics 的收購一樣。我們現在正在研究另外幾個類似的材料，沒有任何材料，但它們在各自的區域中都非常顯著。所以你可能 - 我以北歐為例，我們現在是北歐的第一大玩家，但我們在該地區的物業管理方面存在很大差距。我們不常這樣做。我們在某些市場這樣做，而不是在其他市場。

Leasing is a strong part of the business in one area of the business, but not in another. So all of those become opportunities for us to strengthen these significant chunks of our business, whether through acquisition or as we call it, an aqua hire and in times like these, they're perfect for both for a whole variety of reasons. But some of them are that some of our peers are themselves having difficulties, financial difficulties, too much leverage, a whole variety of things like that. And Colliers seems to be the natural choice across the world, and we're very proud of that. And as I've said before to you, it comes down to culture and it comes down to having a lot of people that have a vested interest in the business, and that creates a momentum that is attracting some of the best talent out there. So we're quite excited about that and really going through challenging times is when you can sometimes make 2 steps at a time instead of 1 step at a time, and we're looking forward to doing a few of those.

租賃在業務的一個領域是業務的重要組成部分，但在另一個領域則不然。因此，所有這些都成為我們加強業務的這些重要部分的機會，無論是通過收購還是我們稱之為 aqua 僱傭，在這樣的時代，由於各種原因，它們都是完美的。但其中一些是我們的一些同行本身也有困難，財務困難，槓桿過多，諸如此類的各種各樣的事情。高力似乎是全世界的自然選擇，我們為此感到非常自豪。正如我之前對你說過的，這歸結為文化，歸結為有很多對企業有既得利益的人，這創造了一種勢頭，吸引了一些最優秀的人才。因此，我們對此感到非常興奮，真正經歷充滿挑戰的時期是，有時您可以一次走 2 步，而不是一次走 1 步，我們期待著做其中的一些。

There are no further questions at this time. Please proceed.

目前沒有其他問題。請繼續。

Thank you, everyone, for participating in the conference call. We look forward to delivering some, hopefully, better results in the second quarter and speak to you then. Thank you again.

謝謝大家參加電話會議。我們期待在第二季度取得一些希望更好的結果，然後與您交談。再次感謝你。

Ladies and gentlemen, this concludes your conference call. Thank you for your participation, and have a nice day.

女士們，先生們，電話會議到此結束。感謝您的參與，祝您有愉快的一天。