Colliers International Group Inc (CIGI) 2022 Q4 法說會逐字稿

Welcome to the Colliers International Fourth Quarter Investors Conference Call. Today's call is being recorded. Legal counsel requires us to advise that the discussion scheduled to take place today may contain forward-looking statements that involve known and unknown risks and uncertainties. Actual results may be materially different from any future results, performance or achievements contemplated in the forward-looking statements. Additional information concerning factors that could cause actual results to materially differ from those in forward-looking statements is contained in the company's annual information form as filed with the Canadian Securities Administrators and in the company's annual report on Form 40-F as filed with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission. As a reminder, today's call is being recorded. Today is February 9, 2023. And at this time, for opening remarks and introductions, I would like to turn the call over to Global Chairman and Chief Executive Officer, Mr. Jay Hennick. Please go ahead, sir.

歡迎參加高力國際第四季度投資者電話會議。今天的通話正在錄音中。法律顧問要求我們告知，定於今天進行的討論可能包含涉及已知和未知風險和不確定性的前瞻性陳述。實際結果可能與前瞻性陳述中預期的任何未來結果、業績或成就存在重大差異。有關可能導致實際結果與前瞻性陳述中的結果存在重大差異的因素的其他信息包含在公司向加拿大證券管理局提交的年度信息表和公司向美國提交的 40-F 表年度報告中。證券交易委員會。提醒一下，今天的通話正在錄音中。今天是 2023 年 2 月 9 日。此時，為了進行開場白和介紹，我想將電話轉給全球董事長兼首席執行官 Jay Hennick 先生。請繼續，先生。

Thank you, operator. Good morning, and thanks for joining us for this fourth quarter and year-end conference call. I'm Jay Hennick, the Chairman, Chief Executive Officer, and with me today is Christian Mayer, Chief Financial Officer. As always, this call is being webcast and is available in the Investor Relations section of our website. A presentation slide deck is also available there to accompany today's call.

謝謝你，運營商。早上好，感謝您加入我們參加第四季度和年終電話會議。我是董事長兼首席執行官 Jay Hennick，今天和我在一起的是首席財務官 Christian Mayer。與往常一樣，此電話會議正在進行網絡直播，可在我們網站的投資者關係部分獲得。今天的電話會議還提供了演示幻燈片。

During the fourth quarter, Investment Management and Outsourcing & Advisory delivered strong revenue growth, while leasing matched the record results from the prior year period. As expected, interest rate volatility and challenging debt markets impacted Capital Markets in our seasonally strongest quarter. We expect this to continue through the first half of 2023. However, transactions are still being completed, and there's significant pent-up demand for real estate assets, which should translate into additional volumes in future quarters especially as conditions stabilize. Aside from capital markets, momentum from the balance of our business is better than expected, as you'll hear from Christian.

第四季度，投資管理和外包與諮詢實現了強勁的收入增長，而租賃與去年同期的創紀錄業績持平。正如預期的那樣，利率波動和具有挑戰性的債務市場在我們季節性最強的季度影響了資本市場。我們預計這種情況將持續到 2023 年上半年。但是，交易仍在完成，並且對房地產資產存在大量被壓抑的需求，這應該會轉化為未來幾個季度的額外交易量，尤其是在情況穩定的情況下。除了資本市場，我們業務平衡的勢頭好於預期，正如您將從克里斯蒂安那裡聽到的那樣。

Strong full year performance was driven by high-value recurring service lines, which continues to validate our strategy of transforming Colliers into a different kind of diversified services company. With our globally balanced and highly diversified business, significant recurring revenues and proven track record of capitalizing on opportunities, Colliers is stronger and more resilient than ever. Earnings from high-value recurring revenues now make up about 58% of our pro forma EBITDA, and this is growing. Last year, we completed a record $1 billion in acquisitions across our global enterprise. These acquisitions not only strengthen our core but they also create additional opportunities to drive shareholder value.

強勁的全年業績是由高價值的經常性服務線推動的，這繼續驗證了我們將 Colliers 轉變為一家不同類型的多元化服務公司的戰略。憑藉我們全球平衡和高度多元化的業務、可觀的經常性收入和利用機會的良好記錄，高力國際比以往任何時候都更強大、更有彈性。來自高價值經常性收入的收益現在約占我們預計 EBITDA 的 58%，而且這一比例還在增長。去年，我們在全球企業中完成了創紀錄的 10 億美元收購。這些收購不僅加強了我們的核心業務，而且還創造了更多機會來推動股東價值。

In investment management, a segment established only 6 years ago, we finished the year with total assets under management of $98 billion, placing Colliers amongst the top global players in the alternative private capital industry. One of the most important attributes of this business is that 85% of our assets are in perpetual or long-dated funds, 10 years or more. These revenues are very stable and have grown historically year-over-year, and we expect this to continue in the future.

在成立僅 6 年的投資管理領域，我們在這一年結束時管理的總資產達到 980 億美元，使 Colliers 躋身於另類私人資本行業的全球頂級公司之列。該業務最重要的特徵之一是我們 85% 的資產屬於永續基金或長期基金，期限為 10 年或更長時間。這些收入非常穩定，並且在歷史上每年都在增長，我們預計這將在未來繼續下去。

As you might remember, in 2020, we announced our Enterprise '25 growth strategy. The goal is to double our profitability and generate more than 65% of our earnings from high-value recurring revenues over the following 5 years. Last year was the second year of our plan, and so far, we're well ahead of our targets. If we're able to achieve this, as we've done in the past, it will be excellent news for shareholders. Colliers is a highly respected global brand and growth platform. We have a well balanced and highly diversified business with a unique enterprising culture and leadership team who have a significant equity stake in our company. The combination of these characteristics truly sets Colliers apart from the rest. But perhaps most importantly, we have a 28-year track record of delivering 20% annual growth in share value to shareholders, a track record we are very proud of.

您可能還記得，在 2020 年，我們宣布了 Enterprise '25 增長戰略。目標是在接下來的 5 年內將我們的盈利能力翻一番，並從高價值的經常性收入中產生超過 65% 的收入。去年是我們計劃的第二年，到目前為止，我們遠遠超過了我們的目標。如果我們能夠實現這一點，就像我們過去所做的那樣，這對股東來說將是個好消息。高力國際是一個備受推崇的全球品牌和增長平台。我們擁有均衡且高度多元化的業務，具有獨特的進取文化和領導團隊，他們在我們公司擁有大量股權。這些特徵的結合真正使 Colliers 脫穎而出。但也許最重要的是，我們擁有 28 年的業績記錄，為股東帶來每年 20% 的股票價值增長，我們對此感到非常自豪。

Now let me turn things over to Christian. Christian?

現在讓我把事情交給克里斯蒂安。基督教？

Thank you, Jay, and good morning. My comments will follow the flow of the slides posted on the Investor Relations section of colliers.com accompanying this call. Please note that the non-GAAP measures referenced on the call are defined in today's press release. All references to revenue growth are expressed in local currency. Our fourth quarter revenues were $1.2 billion, relative to $1.3 billion in the prior year period. Revenues were up strongly and our recurring Outsourcing & Advisory and Investment Management service lines. Our leasing operations were up 3%, benefiting from continuing activity in office and industrial leasing. Capital markets, as Jay mentioned, declined across all regions, reflecting the impact of higher interest rates, reduced availability of capital and geopolitical uncertainty. On an overall basis, internal revenues declined 11% entirely on lower capital markets activity.

謝謝你，傑伊，早上好。我的評論將遵循 colliers.com 投資者關係部分隨本次電話會議發布的幻燈片流程。請注意，今天的新聞稿中定義了電話中提到的非 GAAP 措施。所有提及的收入增長均以當地貨幣表示。我們第四季度的收入為 12 億美元，而去年同期為 13 億美元。收入強勁增長，我們經常性的外包與諮詢和投資管理服務線。我們的租賃業務增長了 3%，這得益於辦公室和工業租賃的持續活動。正如 Jay 提到的那樣，所有地區的資本市場均出現下滑，反映出利率上升、可用資本減少和地緣政治不確定性的影響。總體而言，內部收入下降了 11%，這完全是由於資本市場活動減少所致。

Adjusted EBITDA for Q4 was $203 million, up 6% from 1 year ago with margins at 16.6%, up 230 basis points relative to the prior year quarter. The margin improvement primarily reflects service mix shift toward our high-margin investment management operations. Americas fourth quarter revenues were $679 million, down 16% relative to the prior period. Outsourcing & Advisory was up 9%, driven by engineering and design, including recent acquisitions. Leasing activity matched the record results from the prior year quarter. Capital Markets, including debt origination, was down 51% relative to record volumes in the prior year's seasonally strongest fourth quarter. Adjusted EBITDA was $83 million, down 12% from last year. The margin in the Americas was 12.2%, up 60 basis points, reflecting lower average commission levels, lower performance-based incentive compensation as well as careful control of discretionary costs during the quarter.

第四季度調整後的 EBITDA 為 2.03 億美元，比一年前增長 6%，利潤率為 16.6%，比去年同期增長 230 個基點。利潤率的提高主要反映了服務組合向我們的高利潤投資管理業務的轉變。美洲第四季度收入為 6.79 億美元，較上一季度下降 16%。受工程和設計（包括最近的收購）的推動，外包和諮詢業務增長了 9%。租賃活動與去年同期的創紀錄結果相符。與去年季節性最強的第四季度創紀錄的交易量相比，包括債務發行在內的資本市場交易量下降了 51%。調整後的 EBITDA 為 8300 萬美元，比去年下降 12%。美洲的利潤率為 12.2%，上升 60 個基點，反映出本季度較低的平均佣金水平、較低的基於績效的激勵薪酬以及對可自由支配成本的謹慎控制。

Q4 EMEA revenues were $228 million, up 8% from 1 year ago. Project management activity is up across the region as releasing transactions. Adjusted EBITDA was $36 million versus $42 million last year, with a margin primarily impacted by service mix with a higher proportion of project management revenues at modest margins.

第四季度 EMEA 收入為 2.28 億美元，比一年前增長 8%。隨著發布交易，項目管理活動在整個地區上升。調整後的 EBITDA 為 3600 萬美元，而去年為 4200 萬美元，利潤率主要受到服務組合的影響，其中項目管理收入比例較高，利潤率適中。

Asia Pacific revenues were $194 million, down 3%. Capital Markets revenues were impacted by interest rate volatility and continued COVID restrictions in Asia, while leasing improved in both industrial and office asset classes. Adjusted EBITDA was $34 million relative to $38 million in the prior year quarter. Fourth quarter investment management revenues were $121 million, up 53%. Excluding pass-through carried interest, revenues were up 87%, driven by acquisitions and management fee growth from increased assets under management. Adjusted EBITDA for the quarter was $53 million, up 88% relative to the comparative quarter. For reference, our reported adjusted EBITDA is equivalent to fee-related earnings or FRE, that many pure-play IM firms report since our IM earnings are generated from recurring management fees.

亞太地區收入為 1.94 億美元，下降 3%。資本市場收入受到利率波動和亞洲持續的 COVID 限制的影響，而工業和辦公資產類別的租賃均有所改善。相對於去年同期的 3800 萬美元，調整後的 EBITDA 為 3400 萬美元。第四季度投資管理收入為 1.21 億美元，增長 53%。剔除轉手附帶權益後，收入增長了 87%，這是受管理資產增加帶來的收購和管理費增長的推動。本季度調整後的 EBITDA 為 5300 萬美元，較上一季度增長 88%。作為參考，我們報告的調整後 EBITDA 相當於費用相關收益或 FRE，這是許多純粹的 IM 公司報告的，因為我們的 IM 收益來自經常性管理費。

Fundraising across our platform for the full year 2022 totaled $8 billion. This was a relatively strong result when compared to general slowdown in capital allocation by investors across most real estate asset classes. We have a strong fundraising pipeline, which we hope will drive internal AUM growth of 10% to 15% in 2023. As of December 31, we had $98 billion of AUM. Our fee-paying AUM is now $53 billion. As I noted last quarter, the private and defensive nature of the real estate and real assets in our portfolio brings stability to our AUM. Our financial leverage ratio as of December 31 defined as net debt to pro forma adjusted EBITDA was 1.8x. We expect our leverage to be 1.8x to 2x for the first half of '23, declining to the 1.5x range in the second half. As previously noted, the target leverage range is between 1.2x, and we are comfortable exceeding this range temporarily if a compelling acquisition opportunity becomes available. We have provided an initial outlook regarding our financial performance expectations for 2023.

2022 年全年，我們平台的籌款總額為 80 億美元。與投資者對大多數房地產資產類別的資本配置普遍放緩相比，這是一個相對強勁的結果。我們擁有強大的籌資渠道，我們希望這將推動內部資產管理規模在 2023 年增長 10% 至 15%。截至 12 月 31 日，我們擁有 980 億美元的資產管理規模。我們的付費 AUM 現在是 530 億美元。正如我在上個季度指出的那樣，我們投資組合中房地產和不動產的私有性和防禦性為我們的 AUM 帶來了穩定性。截至 12 月 31 日，我們的財務槓桿比率定義為淨債務與備考調整後 EBITDA 之比為 1.8 倍。我們預計 23 年上半年的槓桿率為 1.8 倍至 2 倍，下半年將降至 1.5 倍的範圍。如前所述，目標槓桿率範圍在 1.2 倍之間，如果出現有吸引力的收購機會，我們可以暫時超過該範圍。我們提供了關於 2023 年財務業績預期的初步展望。

Our outlook includes all acquisitions completed to date and incorporates our best information for each service line and geography. There are 3 broad themes to our outlook. One, recurring investment management revenues are expected to grow significantly from continued capital raising for several products we have in the market right now as well as the annualization of recent acquisitions; two, recurring Outsourcing & Advisory operations are expected to continue to grow organically as well as from the annualization of recent acquisitions; and three, we expect capital markets activity to be down 20% to 40% during the first half of '23 relative to strong prior year comparatives with a return to year-over-year growth in the second half. We expect to maintain disciplined cost control through this period with tight management of discretionary expenses and by gearing our support and administrative staffing levels to match expected revenues. This outlook is subject to risks and uncertainties as outlined on the accompanying slides.

我們的展望包括迄今為止完成的所有收購，並結合了我們對每個服務線和地理位置的最佳信息。我們的展望有 3 個廣泛的主題。第一，由於我們目前市場上的幾種產品的持續融資以及近期收購的年度化，預計經常性投資管理收入將顯著增長；第二，經常性外包和諮詢業務預計將繼續有機增長以及近期收購的年度化；第三，我們預計資本市場活動在 23 年上半年與上年同期相比將下降 20% 至 40%，下半年將恢復同比增長。我們希望在此期間通過嚴格管理可自由支配的費用並調整我們的支持和行政人員配置水平以匹配預期收入，保持嚴格的成本控制。如隨附幻燈片中所述，這一前景受到風險和不確定性的影響。

That concludes my prepared remarks. I would now like to open the call for questions. Operator, can you please open the line?

我準備好的發言到此結束。我現在想開始提問。接線員，你能打開線路嗎？

(Operator Instructions) Our first question comes from Michael Doumet with Scotia Capital.

（操作員說明）我們的第一個問題來自 Scotia Capital 的 Michael Doumet。

Jay and Christian. My first question, I wanted to dig into the 2023 EBITDA guidance just a little bit. My math tells me assuming $100 million of incremental EBITDA from the deals that you have closed at the midpoint of the '23 EBITDA guidance essentially implies flat organic EBITDA. So first, is that thinking correct? And then second, just broadly is the idea that leasing, O&A and IM effectively offset capital markets.

傑伊和克里斯蒂安。我的第一個問題是，我想深入了解一下 2023 年 EBITDA 指南。我的數學告訴我，假設您在 23 年 EBITDA 指南的中點完成的交易中有 1 億美元的增量 EBITDA，這基本上意味著有機 EBITDA 持平。那麼首先，這種想法是否正確？其次，廣義上是租賃、O&A 和 IM 有效抵消資本市場的想法。

Great question, Michael. First off, the EBITDA from the annualization of acquisitions is more like $75 million, not $100 million. So you need to tell that it's the organic growth assumptions, which will, I think, take those assumptions a bit higher, that's my key observation to your comment. As it relates to capital markets, I mean, of course, I've outlined that we expect to be down significantly in the first half, which will translate to being down in that particular service line by 10% to 20% on a full year basis. The other parts of the business Outsourcing & Advisory and Investment Management have significant organic growth baked in to each of those areas as we continue to grow organically and generate new business in those segments.

好問題，邁克爾。首先，收購年化的 EBITDA 更像是 7500 萬美元，而不是 1 億美元。所以你需要說這是有機增長假設，我認為，這將使這些假設更高一點，這是我對你的評論的主要觀察。就資本市場而言，我的意思是，當然，我已經概述了我們預計上半年會大幅下降，這將轉化為該特定服務領域全年下降 10% 至 20%基礎。隨著我們繼續有機增長並在這些領域產生新業務，業務外包與諮詢和投資管理的其他部分在每個領域都有顯著的有機增長。

Christian, that's a great outlook. And then maybe just flipping to the Americas here. So we saw margin expansion there despite the contraction in revenue. You highlighted lower commissions, incentive comp and discretionary spend. Just wondering how we should think about the sustainability at the margin expansion there through the first half of '23, given the anticipated declines in capital markets?

克里斯蒂安，這是一個很好的前景。然後也許只是翻到這裡的美洲。因此，儘管收入收縮，我們還是看到了利潤率的增長。您強調了較低的佣金、激勵補償和可自由支配的支出。只是想知道，鑑於資本市場的預期下滑，我們應該如何考慮 23 年上半年利潤率擴張的可持續性？

Well, look, when you have significant declines in revenues, you're going to have some margin compression. We're doing our best to manage costs. We have highly skilled operators in the field that have done this before. 3 years ago, we lived through the pandemic, and we took a very disciplined approach to cost management, and we're doing the same in this situation. So we're going to do the best we can to maintain those margins, but there will be some margin compression, of course, as revenues decline at those levels, we talked to in the first half.

好吧，你看，當你的收入大幅下降時，你的利潤率就會受到一定程度的壓縮。我們正在盡最大努力控製成本。我們在該領域擁有技術精湛的操作員，他們以前做過這件事。 3 年前，我們經歷了大流行，我們對成本管理採取了非常嚴格的方法，在這種情況下我們也在做同樣的事情。因此，我們將盡最大努力保持這些利潤率，但當然會有一些利潤率壓縮，因為我們在上半年談到了這些水平的收入下降。

Our next question comes from Stephen Sheldon with William Blair & Company.

我們的下一個問題來自 William Blair & Company 的 Stephen Sheldon。

And just to start off with, I just want to commend you on continuing to give guidance for the year, which, as you know, is pretty rare in this industry. The first question on capital markets, you kind of mentioned this in your commentary, but I just want to dig in, I guess, are you seeing any signs of deals getting called or canceled altogether? Or does this truly seems like a timing delay where transactions are taking longer and where there could be a wall of pent-up activity that could unlock in the second half of this year and potentially into 2024?

首先，我只想讚揚您繼續為這一年提供指導，如您所知，這在這個行業中非常罕見。關於資本市場的第一個問題，你在評論中提到了這一點，但我想深入了解一下，你是否看到任何交易被取消或完全取消的跡象？或者這真的看起來像是時間延遲，因為交易需要更長的時間，並且可能會在今年下半年甚至 2024 年解鎖被壓抑的活動牆？

Well, I think, it's definitely transactions have been canceled. And for all the reasons you'd expect interest rates, availability of capital, near-term expectation that a building was worth X dollars 6 months ago, and it's worth substantially less today. But there is huge pent-up demand, at least we see it. We see it in Europe actually, the smaller transactions, the smaller buildings are moving, are trading, but we think there's a big pent-up demand of real estate assets that want to trade, but they still need a period of time to stabilize and stabilize both on the -- on both sides. I think higher quality assets will trade sooner than lesser quality assets. But there is a lot of discovery happening. It's not just price discovery, its clients looking at portfolios or ways to acquire 2 or 3 assets from a seller who might be under a little bit of financial pressure. So I would say our capital markets people are busier today than they've ever been before, and it's in an environment where they know the likelihood of near-term completing transactions is not as rapid as it was, let's say, a year ago.

嗯，我想，這肯定是交易被取消了。出於所有原因，你會預期利率、可用資金、近期預期建築物在 6 個月前價值 X 美元，而今天它的價值大大降低。但是有巨大的被壓抑的需求，至少我們看到了。我們實際上在歐洲看到它，較小的交易，較小的建築物正在移動，正在交易，但我們認為對想要交易的房地產資產有很大的被壓抑的需求，但它們仍然需要一段時間來穩定和穩定雙方——雙方。我認為高質量的資產將比較低質量的資產交易得更快。但是有很多發現正在發生。這不僅僅是價格發現，它的客戶正在尋找投資組合或從可能承受一點財務壓力的賣家那裡獲得 2 或 3 項資產的方法。所以我想說我們的資本市場人員今天比以往任何時候都更加忙碌，而且在這樣一種環境中，他們知道近期完成交易的可能性不像一年前那樣快。

Got it. That's helpful. And then just as a follow-up for Investment Management, great trends in fundraising AUM -- so I guess just at a high level, what do you attribute that success to? And is that AUM grow -- you have a lot of different assets and businesses there now. I guess is that AUM growth pretty broad-based across the different businesses you have in there or just any more detail on that?

知道了。這很有幫助。然後就像投資管理的後續行動一樣，籌款 AUM 的大趨勢——所以我想在高層次上，你將成功歸因於什麼？ AUM 是否在增長——你現在有很多不同的資產和業務。我想 AUM 的增長是基於你所擁有的不同業務的相當廣泛的基礎還是只是關於它的更多細節？

Yes. I mean it is broad across all of the asset classes. We're in very attractive spaces, alternative assets, infrastructure, traditional real estate, multifamily, et cetera. And we do a little bit of credit as well. But the thing that really surprises a lot of people is that there is -- in addition to the fact that -- and I commented about this in my comments that we have a lot of perpetual and long-dated funds. You have to remember that the LPs and for us, most of the LPs are big institutions. We have just under 1,000 LPs, very little direct to retail at this point, although something we're working on. But these LPs have known us and our platforms for a long period of time. So they move from one fund to another as the closed-ended funds mature and a new fund is initiated, they move from fund to fund. So in addition to the fact that they're long-dated strategies, closed-ended funds, it's the same investors that are going from fund to fund to funds. So there's a wonderful cadence of [recurability] to this business, and we're enjoying it now.

是的。我的意思是它涵蓋了所有資產類別。我們處於非常有吸引力的空間、替代資產、基礎設施、傳統房地產、多戶住宅等。我們也做了一點信用。但真正讓很多人感到驚訝的是，除了事實之外，我在評論中評論說我們有很多永久和長期基金。你必須記住，LP 和對我們來說，大多數 LP 都是大機構。我們有不到 1,000 個 LP，目前很少直接面向零售，儘管我們正在努力。但是這些 LP 已經了解我們和我們的平台很長一段時間了。因此，隨著封閉式基金的成熟和新基金的啟動，他們從一個基金轉移到另一個基金，他們從一個基金轉移到另一個基金。因此，除了它們是長期策略、封閉式基金這一事實之外，從一個基金到另一個基金再到基金的投資者都是一樣的。因此，這項業務的 [recurability] 節奏非常好，我們現在正在享受它。

It's a cadence that only continues. If we continue to deliver top-tier performance to our clients. And that has continued through all of the platforms that we have. And I think there's a lot of reasons why that happens. Part of it is, of course, that we have selected carefully, but part of it also is that we're partners with the people that make it happen every day, and they have a significant vested interest in continuing to deliver top-tier performance to their clients, probably more than you wanted to hear, but at least it gives you a little bit more color.

這是一個只會繼續的節奏。如果我們繼續為客戶提供一流的性能。這已經通過我們擁有的所有平台繼續進行。我認為發生這種情況的原因有很多。當然，部分原因是我們精心挑選，但也有一部分原因是我們與那些每天都在努力的人合作，他們在繼續提供頂級績效方面擁有巨大的既得利益對他們的客戶來說，可能比你想听到的要多，但至少它給了你更多的色彩。

Our next question comes from Stephen MacLeod with BMO Capital.

我們的下一個問題來自 BMO Capital 的 Stephen MacLeod。

Just wanted to turn a little bit to leasing, which you've highlighted in your 2023 outlook -- expected to be sort of stable and was stable in Q4. And I'm just curious if you can talk a little bit about some of the factors that give you strong visibility into leasing trends in 2023?

只是想稍微轉向租賃，您在 2023 年展望中強調了這一點——預計會保持穩定，並且在第四季度保持穩定。我只是想知道您是否可以談談一些讓您對 2023 年租賃趨勢有深刻了解的因素？

We've said this for a long time and I think if you go back really to the fundamentals of leasing -- leases, 5 years, 10 years, 7 years, whatever the lease term is, and during COVID, there was a period of time when landlords because of the uncertainty would extend lease terms for a year or 2 while people -- while their tenants got comfortable with what's the new paradigm, which, by the way, I'm not sure they're comfortable still yet on what the new paradigm is. But ultimately, leases have to be renewed, extended -- a move has to take place. And so there is a repeatability to leasing that you don't necessarily have, for example, in capital markets. So we were not surprised to see leasing give or take, the prior year. I think we were happy to see it. But leasing has got some interesting repeat qualities that are not really seen by most people.

我們已經說了很長時間了，我想如果你真的回到租賃的基本原理——租賃，5 年、10 年、7 年，無論租賃期限是什麼，在 COVID 期間，有一段時間房東由於不確定性而將租賃期限延長一年或兩年的時間，而人們 - 而他們的租戶對新範式感到滿意，順便說一句，我不確定他們是否仍然對什麼感到滿意新範式是。但最終，租約必須續簽、延長——必須採取行動。因此，租賃具有可重複性，而您在資本市場等領域不一定具有這種可重複性。因此，我們對前一年的租賃給予或接受並不感到驚訝。我想我們很高興看到它。但是租賃有一些有趣的重複特性，大多數人並沒有真正看到這些特性。

Great. That's helpful. And then just on turning to capital markets. Just wondering if you can talk a little bit -- I know you gave some color, Jay, which I appreciate but I just wondering if you can talk a little bit about sort of how you've seen capital markets evolving in Q1, if at all, different in a material way from Q4. Just it feels like there's a little bit more rate stability now than there was in Q4. So I'm just curious if you had seen some sequential improvements in the capital markets business.

偉大的。這很有幫助。然後就轉向資本市場。只是想知道你是否可以談談 - 我知道你給了一些顏色，Jay，我很感激，但我只是想知道你是否可以談談你如何看待資本市場在第一季度的演變，如果在全部，與第四季度有實質性的不同。只是感覺現在的利率穩定性比第四季度高了一點。所以我很好奇你是否看到了資本市場業務的一些連續改進。

Well, Stephen, it's pretty early to comment on Q1. But certainly, the trend from Q4 was down meaningfully year-over-year relative to, in particular, the Americas record volumes in Q4 of '21. Q1 of 2022 was a pretty strong quarter too. So the comparative is tough. And as I mentioned, we do expect capital markets to be down in the 20% to 40% range in aggregate in the first half. So I think what we're saying is that capital markets activity continues to be challenged, and we expect it's going to be challenged in the first quarter. In particular, larger assets are not really trading right now. That means that part of the market is not very active. Other parts of the market, we are seeing some activity, but overall, it's going to be down like we said.

好吧，斯蒂芬，現在對第一季度發表評論還為時過早。但可以肯定的是，相對於 21 年第四季度美洲創紀錄的交易量，第四季度的趨勢同比顯著下降。 2022 年第一季度也是一個相當強勁的季度。所以比較是艱難的。正如我所提到的，我們確實預計上半年資本市場將總體下跌 20% 至 40%。所以我認為我們所說的是資本市場活動繼續受到挑戰，我們預計它會在第一季度受到挑戰。特別是，更大的資產現在並沒有真正交易。這意味著市場的一部分不是很活躍。市場的其他部分，我們看到了一些活動，但總體而言，它會像我們說的那樣下降。

Yes. Okay. That makes sense. And then maybe just finally, you highlighted the strength of the balance sheet, which I think is a huge asset in a market like this and long term as well -- as well as the capital deployment that you've put towards acquisitions over the last 12 months. Can you talk a little bit about what you're seeing with potential acquisition opportunities? And then Christian, just to follow up. You mentioned the leverage target. Just wondering if you could repeat that because I didn't quite pick it up in your prepared remarks.

是的。好的。這就說得通了。然後也許就在最後，你強調了資產負債表的實力，我認為這在這樣的市場中也是長期的巨大資產 - 以及你在過去的收購中投入的資本配置12個月。你能談談你對潛在收購機會的看法嗎？然後克里斯蒂安，只是為了跟進。你提到了槓桿目標。只是想知道你是否可以重複一遍，因為我在你準備好的發言中沒有完全理解它。

Chris, do you want to talk about the target...

克里斯，你想談談目標……

Yes, I'll start with the leverage target and then Jay will turn to acquisitions. The long-term leverage range for us is 1x to 2x but we are comfortable exceeding 2x temporarily if an acquisition opportunity comes available.

是的，我將從槓桿目標開始，然後 Jay 將轉向收購。我們的長期槓桿範圍是 1 到 2 倍，但如果有收購機會，我們可以暫時超過 2 倍。

In terms of acquisitions, we've got a -- with $1 billion of acquisitions done last year, we could actually rest and collect the cash flow that we generate from our business, which is extensive. Our CapEx as a percentage of our EBITDA is relatively small. So we generate a lot of free cash flow in this capital-light business. But as we have done historically, we've set a target of another $65 million-ish in incremental EBITDA and acquisitions for '23. And the beauty is they're all over the board for us. I mean lots of opportunity and services really around the world. And there's even opportunity in investment management in a couple of areas as well.

在收購方面，我們有一個 - 去年完成了 10 億美元的收購，我們實際上可以休息並收集我們從我們的業務中產生的現金流，這是廣泛的。我們的資本支出佔 EBITDA 的百分比相對較小。所以我們在這個輕資本業務中產生了大量的自由現金流。但正如我們過去所做的那樣，我們已經設定了 23 年再增加 6500 萬美元的 EBITDA 和收購目標。美妙之處在於它們對我們來說無處不在。我的意思是世界各地都有很多機會和服務。在幾個領域甚至還有投資管理的機會。

But I would say the services portion of our business has got tons and tons and tons of room. And as I've been saying, Stephen for so long, having a global platform with exceptional management teams around the world, who've been with us for a long time and are heavily incentivized through share ownership and other things gives us the ability to execute on acquisitions virtually anywhere in the world and properly integrate them, and we've been doing this for a long time. So we're going to -- for us, it's going to continue to be business as usual and acquisitions will continue to be part of our overall growth plan.

但我會說我們業務的服務部分有大量的空間。正如我一直在說的，Stephen 這麼久以來，擁有一個全球平台，在世界各地擁有傑出的管理團隊，他們已經和我們在一起很長時間了，並且通過股權和其他事情得到了極大的激勵，這讓我們有能力幾乎在世界任何地方執行收購併適當地整合它們，我們已經這樣做了很長時間。所以我們將 - 對我們來說，它將繼續照常營業，收購將繼續成為我們整體增長計劃的一部分。

Congrats on a great quarter.

祝賀一個偉大的季度。

Our next question comes from Daryl Young with TD Securities.

我們的下一個問題來自道明證券的 Daryl Young。

Congrats on the good results. First question is around the margins and investment management, they took a bit of a step higher this quarter. I think you've alluded to the potential for those to be sort of 50% or higher in the future. Is that going to come mostly from the organic fundraising and operating leverage? Or should we see some integration synergies upside?

恭喜取得好成績。第一個問題是關於利潤率和投資管理，他們本季度提高了一點。我想你已經提到這些在未來可能會達到 50% 或更高。這將主要來自有機籌資和經營槓桿嗎？或者我們應該看到一些整合協同效應的好處嗎？

Yes, I think it's going to be mostly from organic growth and then operating leverage that comes from that. And I think as we look ahead to 2023, we're taking it on an incremental approach, I think the 50% margin target is a few years away for us. But certainly, 45% is well in reach for 2023.

是的，我認為這將主要來自有機增長，然後是由此產生的經營槓桿。而且我認為，當我們展望 2023 年時，我們正在採取漸進的方式，我認為 50% 的利潤率目標對我們來說還需要幾年的時間。但可以肯定的是，到 2023 年可以達到 45%。

Okay. Great. And then in terms of engineering and property management, both going very well, have you seen any indications that financing costs or just construction costs in general are slowing the outlook for engineering? Or is there anything to see there? It seems like it's just continuing -- construction activity just continues to be exceedingly robust.

好的。偉大的。然後在工程和物業管理方面，兩者都進展順利，您是否看到任何跡象表明融資成本或一般的建築成本正在減緩工程前景？或者那裡有什麼可看的？它似乎只是在繼續——建築活動繼續非常強勁。

Very robust. And in particular, the infrastructure spending everywhere is really driving engineering. I don't have the percentages of our business handy. But I would say that the majority of our revenues are things like infrastructure rebuilds everywhere, new development everywhere and that's really driving the growth of our engineering platform.

非常堅固。特別是，各地的基礎設施支出確實在推動工程。我手邊沒有我們業務的百分比。但我要說的是，我們的大部分收入來自各地的基礎設施重建、各地的新開發，這真正推動了我們工程平台的增長。

Got it. And then just 1 point of clarification to Stephen's question. I think you mentioned $63 million of targeted EBITDA. That would be above and beyond the guidance that was just put out.

知道了。然後對 Stephen 的問題進行 1 點澄清。我想你提到了 6300 萬美元的目標 EBITDA。這將超出剛剛發布的指南。

Yes. Daryl, I think Jay mentioned $65 million of incremental EBITDA that could be as targeted as our acquisition goal for the year. That will be -- that will happen when the acquisitions happen and we'll update you at that point. But certainly, the outlook range we have in front of you today does not include any acquisitions.

是的。 Daryl，我認為 Jay 提到了 6500 萬美元的增量 EBITDA，這可能與我們今年的收購目標一樣有針對性。那將是 - 這將在收購發生時發生，我們會在那時向您更新。但可以肯定的是，我們今天擺在您面前的前景範圍不包括任何收購。

Our next question comes from Chandni Luthra with Goldman Sachs.

我們的下一個問題來自高盛的 Chandni Luthra。

So this is sort of trying to dig deeper into one of the questions that was already asked on guidance. How much of your 2023 revenue and earnings guidance is driven by acquired businesses rolling up where obviously there is less risk versus other segments like capital markets or leasing, where there could be more externalities. Just asked another way, how much of your 2023 revenue role is already known?

所以這是在嘗試更深入地研究指導中已經提出的問題之一。你的 2023 年收入和收益指引中有多少是由收購業務推動的，這些業務顯然與資本市場或租賃等其他領域相比風險較小，這些領域可能存在更多的外部性。只是換一種方式問，您在 2023 年的收入角色中有多少是已知的？

Chandni, that's a very interesting question and a very astute one. As I mentioned earlier on the call, about $75 million of EBITDA comes from annualization of acquisitions completed in 2022. And out of that $50 million -- sorry, out of that $75 million, $50 million is investment management, which we have extremely high visibility on and the remainder is a combination of the other services, which includes a little bit of capital markets, but also a significant amount of property management and engineering business.

Chandni，這是一個非常有趣的問題，也是一個非常精明的問題。正如我之前在電話會議上提到的，大約 7500 萬美元的 EBITDA 來自 2022 年完成的收購的年化。在這 5000 萬美元中——抱歉，在這 7500 萬美元中，5000 萬美元是投資管理，我們有極高的知名度上和其餘部分是其他服務的組合，其中包括一點資本市場，但也有大量的物業管理和工程業務。

Fair point. And then you guys talked about strong fundraising pipeline, which you expect to drive AUM growth of 10% to 15% in 2023. What's the composition of this incremental AUM? Will this be alts? Will this be traditional? Or will this be infra? And what sort of conversations are you having in this environment that's driving such strong fundraising?

有道理。然後你們談到了強大的籌資渠道，你們預計這將在 2023 年推動 AUM 增長 10% 到 15%。這個增量 AUM 的構成是什麼？這會是替代品嗎？這會是傳統的嗎？或者這將是紅外線？在這種推動如此強勁的籌款活動的環境中，您進行了什麼樣的對話？

Well, it's all over the map based on the strategies that were in the market raising capital on. So I don't have the exact breakdown in front of me. But across the board, whether it's Harrison Street, Rockwood, Basalt versus Colliers Global Investors all are in the market raising their next vintage of funds. There's 1 or 2 new products. New products generally raise less incremental dollars but vintage products generally do much better than that. So the expectation that Christian talked about in his prepared remarks, are, I would say, significantly existing products, re-ups.

好吧，根據市場上籌集資金的策略，它遍布整個地圖。所以我面前沒有確切的細分。但總體而言，無論是 Harrison Street、Rockwood、Basalt 還是 Colliers Global Investors，都在市場上籌集下一批基金。有 1 或 2 個新產品。新產品通常籌集的增量資金較少，但老式產品通常做得更好。因此，克里斯蒂安在他準備好的發言中談到的期望，我想說的是，重要的是現有產品，重新升級。

(Operator Instructions) Our next question comes from Frederic Bastien with Raymond James.

（操作員說明）我們的下一個問題來自 Frederic Bastien 和 Raymond James。

I can confirm that the demand for engineering services is unlike anything I've seen in my 20 years covering the space. So I'm pretty bullish on that particular end market. Now given this, are you not tempted to dial up sort of the M&A -- the M&A on that particular sector? And just -- I mean I know you've been quite active there, but I think I am -- took a focus, took a large part of your efforts and attention in 2022, so how do we think about that particular sector and the growth prospects in the next couple of years?

我可以確認，對工程服務的需求與我在該領域工作 20 年來所見過的任何情況都不一樣。所以我非常看好那個特定的終端市場。現在考慮到這一點，您是否不想進行某種併購——特定行業的併購？只是——我的意思是我知道你在那裡一直很活躍，但我想我是——在 2022 年集中了注意力，投入了你們的大部分努力和注意力，那麼我們如何看待這個特定領域和未來幾年的增長前景？

Well, you've known us a long time, and we try not to sleep too much. But engineering and project management has gone from virtually nothing in 2018-ish to something that's approaching almost $1 billion in revenue for us. We are actively looking to augment those operations virtually around the globe. You saw the first significant acquisition in Australia during this past year. There was also an acquisition in the U.K. during this past year. So we are very active and if you have any opportunities that you think we should take a look at, we're always open to speak to anyone you want.

好吧，你認識我們很久了，我們盡量不要睡太多。但工程和項目管理已經從 2018 年的幾乎一無所有變成了為我們帶來近 10 億美元的收入。我們正在積極尋求以虛擬方式在全球範圍內擴大這些業務。在過去的一年裡，您看到了澳大利亞的第一筆重大收購。在過去的一年裡，英國也進行了一次收購。所以我們非常活躍，如果你有任何你認為我們應該看看的機會，我們總是願意與任何你想要的人交談。

The other more like a -- the other question is more along the -- more clarity around that -- Christian, you noted you guided towards a 20% to 40% decline in capital markets. Do you expect that to be evenly weighted between Q1 and Q2? And then secondly, are there regions where -- is it evenly spread among your 3 regions? Or will 1 region feel it's more in particular?

另一個更像是 - 另一個問題更像是 - 更清楚 - 克里斯蒂安，你注意到你引導資本市場下降 20% 到 40%。您是否希望在 Q1 和 Q2 之間平均加權？其次，是否有區域 - 它是否均勻分佈在您的 3 個區域中？還是1個地區會覺得更特別？

Well, Frederic, I'm not sure I want to get into the particulars around Q1 and Q2. Let's just say that we think it's going to be down 20% to 40% in the first half. But as we've said, those were strong quarters last year and tough comparatives. And as it relates to the regional question, I think you'll see the Americas be down significantly year-on-year because they had very strong performance in the first half of 2022. And when you look at EMEA already had challenges last year with the situation in Ukraine, so we don't expect the year-over-year grants in EMEA to be that significant. And as you look at Asia Pac, we had the COVID issue in Asia in the first half of last year. That was impacting our activity levels. So I don't think the variances there are going to be as significant either. I think it's really going to be focused in the Americas.

好吧，弗雷德里克，我不確定我是否想了解第一季度和第二季度的細節。我們只是說我們認為上半年會下降 20% 到 40%。但正如我們所說，這些是去年強勁的季度和艱難的比較。就地區性問題而言，我認為你會看到美洲同比大幅下滑，因為它們在 2022 年上半年的表現非常強勁。而歐洲、中東和非洲地區去年已經面臨挑戰烏克蘭的情況，所以我們預計 EMEA 的同比贈款不會那麼重要。當你看亞太地區時，我們在去年上半年在亞洲遇到了 COVID 問題。這正在影響我們的活動水平。所以我認為差異也不會那麼顯著。我認為它真的會集中在美洲。

This concludes the Q&A session. I'd now like to turn the call back over to Jay Hennick for any closing remarks.

問答環節到此結束。我現在想將電話轉回 Jay Hennick 以聽取任何結束語。

Thank you, operator, and thanks, everyone, for participating in our fourth quarter and year-end conference call. We look forward to speaking to you again at the end of the first quarter. And we'll see how we do in Capital Markets. Have a great day.

謝謝接線員，也感謝大家參加我們的第四季度和年終電話會議。我們期待在第一季度末再次與您交談。我們將看看我們在資本市場上的表現。祝你有美好的一天。

Ladies and gentlemen, this concludes the conference call. Thank you for your participation and have a nice day.

女士們，先生們，電話會議到此結束。感謝您的參與，祝您有愉快的一天。