Grupo Cibest SA (CIB) 2023 Q3 法說會逐字稿

Good morning, ladies and gentlemen, and welcome to Bancolombia's Third Quarter 2023 Earnings Conference Call. My name is Ryan, and I will be your operator for today's call. (Operator Instructions) Please note that this conference is being recorded.

早安，女士們、先生們，歡迎參加哥倫比亞銀行 2023 年第三季財報電話會議。我叫 Ryan，我將擔任今天電話的接線生。 （操作員說明）請注意，本次會議正在錄製中。

Please note that this conference call will include forward-looking statements, including statements related to our future performance, capital position, credit-related expenses and credit losses. All forward-looking statements, whether made in this conference call, in future filings, in press releases or verbally, address matters that involve risk and uncertainty. Consequently, there are factors that could cause actual results to differ materially from those indicated in such statements, including changes in general economic and business conditions, changes in currency exchange rates and interest rates, introduction of competing products by other companies, lack of acceptance of new products or services by our targeted clients, changes in business strategy and various other factors that we describe in our reports filed with the SEC.

請注意，本次電話會議將包含前瞻性陳述，包括與我們未來業績、資本狀況、信貸相關費用和信貸損失有關的陳述。所有前瞻性陳述，無論是在本次電話會議、未來的文件中、新聞稿中或口頭上做出的，都涉及涉及風險和不確定性的事項。因此，存在一些因素可能導致實際結果與此類報表中所示的結果有重大差異，包括總體經濟和商業狀況的變化、貨幣匯率和利率的變化、其他公司推出競爭產品、缺乏接受度等。我們的目標客戶推出的新產品或服務、業務策略的變化以及我們在向SEC 提交的報告中所述的各種其他因素。

With us today is Mr. Juan Carlos Mora, Chief Executive Officer; Mr. José Humberto Acosta, Chief Financial Officer; Mr. Rodrigo Prieto, Chief Risk Officer; Ms. Catalina Tobon, Investor Relations and Capital Markets Director; and Mrs. Laura Clavijo, Chief Economist.

今天與我們在一起的是首席執行官胡安·卡洛斯·莫拉 (Juan Carlos Mora) 先生； José Humberto Acosta 先生，財務長； Rodrigo Prieto 先生，首席風險長； Catalina Tobon女士，投資人關係及資本市場總監；以及首席經濟學家 Laura Clavijo 女士。

I will now turn the call over to Mr. Juan Carlos Mora, Chief Executive Officer. Please go ahead, sir.

我現在將把電話轉給執行長胡安·卡洛斯·莫拉先生。請繼續，先生。

Good morning, and welcome to Bancolombia's Third Quarter Conference Call Results. Please go to Slide 2. The results for the third quarter reflect the progressive slowdown in the economies in which the Bancolombia operates, particularly in Colombia, where the prevailing high interest rates and inflation kept credit origination weak, compressed net interest income, impaired loans and maintained operating costs elevated. However, the good performance of the investment portfolio and the 23% drop quarter-over-quarter on net provision charges helped offset the lower net interest income on loans and higher costs, resulting in a net income of COP 1.5 trillion, equivalent to 2.1% growth quarter-over-quarter.

早上好，歡迎來到哥倫比亞銀行第三季電話會議結果。請參閱投影片 2。第三季的業績反映了哥倫比亞銀行業務所在經濟體的逐步放緩，特別是哥倫比亞，那裡普遍存在的高利率和通貨膨脹導致信貸發放疲軟，淨利息收入壓縮，貸款減值營運成本維持較高水準。然而，投資組合的良好表現以及淨撥備費用環比下降 23% 幫助抵消了貸款淨利息收入下降和成本上升的影響，淨利潤達到 1.5 兆比索，相當於 2.1%環比增長。

The loan book contracted near 1% on a quarterly and annual basis as a result of lower demand and a lower credit appetite, as well as more prepayments. The cost of risk for the period reduced to 2.5%, a 60 basis points drop driven in part by the lower pace of past due loans formation on consumer loans, as we will further elaborate. NIM increased to 6.8%, even as interest expense kept growing on this, coupled with lower provision charges, have diluted higher operating expenses that drove the efficiency ratio to 47.6%. All in all, ROE increased to 16%, and Basel III Core Equity Tier I ratio increased to 10.9%, well above the minimum regulatory levels reflecting the capacity to generate organic capital.

由於需求下降、信貸意願下降以及提前還款增加，貸款帳面按季度和按年收縮近 1%。這段期間的風險成本降至 2.5%，下降了 60 個基點，部分原因是消費貸款逾期貸款形成速度放緩，我們將進一步闡述。儘管利息支出持續成長，淨利差增加至 6.8%，再加上撥備費用降低，稀釋了較高的營運支出，將效率比率推至 47.6%。總而言之，淨資產收益率上升至 16%，巴塞爾協議 III 核心股權一級比率上升至 10.9%，遠高於反映有機資本產生能力的最低監管水準。

These results reflect the strength of the bank in terms of its balance sheet structure, access to low-cost funding and risk management that allows it to better navigate the current economic and credit cycle and capture tailwinds. Moreover, the latest regional elections in Colombia showed that democracy is effective and allows voters to express their preferences and agendas. As a result, a group of leaders focused on addressing the main local interest, problems and needs will be leading the principal cities and regions' issues such as security, mobility, infrastructure and unemployment are at the top of the agenda for these new administrations.

這些結果反映了該銀行在資產負債表結構、低成本融資管道和風險管理方面的實力，使其能夠更好地駕馭當前的經濟和信貸週期並抓住機會。此外，哥倫比亞最近的地區選舉表明民主是有效的，允許選民表達自己的偏好和議程。因此，一群專注於解決當地主要利益、問題和需求的領導人將領導主要城市和地區，安全、流動性、基礎設施和失業等問題將成為新政府的首要議程。

As we are a key player in most regions of Colombia, these government changes always bring new opportunities for local collaborations through strategic projects that promote growth and wellbeing for the population of each region. Infrastructure, health care, housing, entrepreneurship and financial inclusions are areas where we should be able to provide value. I will also want to share how proud we are, as for the ninth year in a row, Bancolombia was recognized by Merco as the company with the best reputation in Colombia. This is a comprehensive assessment from different stakeholders on economic, environmental, social and ethics issues, among others.

由於我們是哥倫比亞大多數地區的關鍵參與者，這些政府變革總是透過促進每個地區人口成長和福祉的策略計畫為當地合作帶來新的機會。基礎設施、醫療保健、住房、創業和普惠金融是我們應該能夠提供價值的領域。我也想分享我們是多麼自豪，因為 Bancolombia 連續第九年被 Merco 評為哥倫比亞聲譽最佳的公司。這是不同利害關係人對經濟、環境、社會和道德問題等的全面評估。

After these highlights, I turn the presentation to Laura Clavijo, our Chief Economist, for further detail on the macroeconomic outlook. Laura?

在這些要點之後，我將向我們的首席經濟學家勞拉·克拉維霍 (Laura Clavijo) 進行演示，以了解有關宏觀經濟前景的更多詳細資訊。勞拉？

Thank you, Juan Carlos. Now we can please go to Slide 3. The Colombian economy has been undergoing a significant slowdown throughout the year, expanding just 0.3% year-over-year during the second quarter of 2023 amidst weakening activity in retail, manufacturing, and construction. Persistent inflation and tighter financial conditions have continued pressuring consumer demand, investment and exports. Hence, we confirm our GDP growth forecast of 1.2% for 2023 and 0.9% for 2024.

謝謝你，胡安卡洛斯。現在我們可以轉到幻燈片 3。哥倫比亞經濟全年大幅放緩，由於零售、製造業和建築業活動疲軟，2023 年第二季度同比僅增長 0.3%。持續的通貨膨脹和金融狀況收緊持續給消費者需求、投資和出口帶來壓力。因此，我們確認 2023 年 GDP 成長 1.2%，2024 年 GDP 成長 0.9%。

Inflation has continued its downward trend, but remains in the double digits, 11% as of September, pressured by high oil prices and other regulated goods. Furthermore, core inflation has subsided at a far slower pace, falling just 100 basis points between March's peak, reaching 9.5% as of September. As a result, we have revised upward our end of year forecast for inflation from 9% to 9.6% and from 5.3% to 5.9% for 2023 and 2024. Additional pressures to inflation will be closely monitored. First, the drought season resulting from El Nino is expected to intensify in the following months and well into the first quarter of 2024, potentially increasing prices of food and energy.

通膨持續呈下降趨勢，但仍維持在兩位數，截至 9 月為 11%，受到高油價和其他受管製商品的壓力。此外，核心通膨下降的速度要慢得多，與 3 月的峰值相比僅下降了 100 個基點，截至 9 月達到 9.5%。因此，我們將年底通膨預測從 9% 上調至 9.6%，將 2023 年和 2024 年通膨預測從 5.3% 上調至 5.9%。我們將密切監測通膨的額外壓力。首先，厄爾尼諾現象造成的乾旱季節預計將在接下來的幾個月和 2024 年第一季加劇，這可能會導致糧食和能源價格上漲。

Second, the government has continued hiking gas prices and has announced will continue thereafter with diesel in an effort to curb fiscal spending related to the fuel price stability fund. And finally, minimum wage negotiations for 2024 will begin in the following week and will very likely result in a double-digit increase, thus placing further pressure to inflation expectations for 2024. Given this macro scenario, the Central Bank maintained stable its policy rate at 13.25% during October's Board meeting, completing 7 consecutive months of interest rates at this level. Furthermore, last month's policy decision was divided between 5 members choosing to maintain and 2 in favor of cutting rates by 25 basis points, showing signs that monetary policy stance may begin its cutting cycle before year-end or early 2024. Consequently, our policy outlook has been revised upward and considers gradual cuts of interest rates up to 400 basis points during 2024.

其次，政府繼續提高天然氣價格，並宣布此後將繼續提高柴油價格，以抑制與燃料價格穩定基金相關的財政支出。最後，2024年最低工資談判將於下週開始，很可能出現兩位數的漲幅，從而給2024年的通膨預期帶來進一步壓力。在這種宏觀形勢下，央行維持政策利率穩定在10月董事會會議期間利率為13.25%，完成了連續7個月的利率水準。此外，上個月的政策決定中有5 個成員選擇維持利率不變，2 個成員贊成降息25 個基點，這表明貨幣政策立場可能會在年底或2024 年初之前開始降息週期。因此，我們的政策前景已向上修正，並考慮在 2024 年逐步降息最多 400 個基點。

The fiscal outlook has improved throughout the year due to the less-than-expected government spending and stability in revenues mainly coming from taxes and oil. The government has committed to compliance of the fiscal rule, which seems possible for 2023 and the following year. Nonetheless, higher social spending and resources committed to implementing the reform agenda has approved our sources of fiscal uncertainty in the medium term.

由於政府支出低於預期以及主要來自稅收和石油的收入穩定，全年財政前景有所改善。政府已承諾遵守財政規則，這在 2023 年和下一年似乎是可能的。儘管如此，用於實施改革議程的社會支出和資源的增加已經證實了我們中期財政不確定性的根源。

We maintain our view that 2024 will be a year of gradual recovery, especially during the second half of the year, when receding inflation and interest rate cuts will pick up the pace. Nonetheless, higher for longer interest rates, both in international and local scene, will prove challenging for consumer demand, investment prospects and the overall performance of the financial sector. Now please let me turn the presentation back to Juan Carlos, who will present Bancolombia's quarterly performance.

我們仍認為2024年將是逐步復甦的一年，尤其是下半年，通膨回落和降息將加快。儘管如此，無論是國際還是國內，長期利率上升都將對消費者需求、投資前景和金融部門的整體表現構成挑戰。現在請讓我將演講轉回胡安·卡洛斯，他將介紹哥倫比亞銀行的季度業績。

Thank you, Laura. Now please go to Slide 4. Before we move into explaining the results for the third quarter, I want to refer to what are our 4 value-driving pillars. These pillars contain the main sources of our current and future capabilities and competitive advantages and thus, the foundation for present results and the roadmap for profitable growth in the future. The first pillar relates to our client-centric approach, under which we deliver customized integrated solutions for their everyday needs on their -- an ecosystem model, orchestrating experiences in our own channels and allowing third parties to develop their own under a banking-as-a-service model. One of our best testimonies of our capabilities in this space is the successful development of the QR code.

謝謝你，勞拉。現在請轉到投影片 4。在我們開始解釋第三季的結果之前，我想先介紹一下我們的 4 個價值驅動支柱是什麼。這些支柱包含了我們當前和未來能力和競爭優勢的主要來源，因此也是當前業績的基礎和未來獲利成長的路線圖。第一個支柱涉及我們以客戶為中心的方法，根據該方法，我們在生態系統模型上為他們的日常需求提供客製化的整合解決方案，在我們自己的管道中編排經驗，並允許第三方在銀行即服務下發展自己的解決方案。a-服務模式。 QR 碼的成功開發是我們在這一領域能力的最佳證明之一。

Leveraged on our API resources, we have enabled merchants to integrate payments acceptance models within their sales digital experience. Soon after its launch, the QR code has experienced exponential adoption, becoming the largest acceptant payment network in Colombia with more than 1.8 million merchants in more than 1,100 municipalities and used by 3.2 million people. The power of this payment tool relies on its capacity to capture flows, retain deposits, originate fees and gather data to fit our analytic models and further encasing our deposit structure.

利用我們的 API 資源，我們使商家能夠將支付接受模型整合到他們的銷售數位體驗中。推出後不久，二維碼的採用率呈指數級增長，成為哥倫比亞最大的接受支付網絡，在 1,100 多個城市擁有超過 180 萬家商戶，使用人數達 320 萬人。這款支付工具的強大之處在於其捕獲流量、保留存款、收取費用和收集數據以適應我們的分析模型並進一步封裝我們的存款結構的能力。

On Slide 5, our second value-driving pillar that focus on evolving our digital capabilities and an interoperable multichannel platform. In this opportunity, I want to comment on our digital wallet, Bancolombia A la Mano, in its 10th year of operations as a proof of our consistent progress, improving delivery on digitalization. Bancolombia A la Mano has allowed us to complement our offer to the low-income adult population segment who lack access to financial products, permitting us to capture low-cost deposits via payrolls, money transfer, remittances and fee income on the sale of bancassurance, resulting in a growing segment.

在投影片 5 上，我們的第二個價值驅動支柱專注於發展我們的數位能力和可互通的多通路平台。藉此機會，我想對我們的數位錢包 Bancolombia A la Mano 的營運第十年發表評論，作為我們在改善數位化交付方面持續進步的證明。 Bancolombia A la Mano 使我們能夠補充向無法獲得金融產品的低收入成年人群體提供的服務，使我們能夠透過工資、轉帳、匯款和銀行保險銷售的費用收入獲取低成本存款，導致細分市場不斷增長。

As of today, it has 6.4 million clients that hold more than COP 700 billion in deposits and whose volume and value of transactions increases year-over-year. In the next 2 years, we plan to reach 8 million clients, tapping the underbanked population market and further increasing their monthly activity.

截至目前，該公司擁有 640 萬客戶，存款金額超過 7,000 億披索，交易量和交易額逐年增加。未來 2 年，我們計劃覆蓋 800 萬客戶，開拓銀行服務不足的人口市場並進一步增加他們的每月活動。

In Slide 6, under our third value-driving pillar that consists of structural capabilities that provide us with certain market advantages. I want to refer to the significant progress made on our collections model, which is one of our top priorities within our risk management framework given the current credit cycle and its underlying challenges. Leveraged on our channel platforms and data analytics tools, we are currently working under a threefold approach consisting of: first, enabling new digital channels to increase coverage and client awareness at a lower cost. Second, structuring insights to better understand payment propensity, allowing us to anticipate loan deterioration. And third, incorporating behavioral language to ease frictions and thus increasing the acceptance of refinancing options. We are confident that these complementary strategies will provide us flexibility to keep up with our collections performance.

在投影片 6 中，我們的第三個價值驅動支柱由為我們提供某些市場優勢的結構能力所組成。我想提及我們在催收模式方面取得的重大進展，考慮到當前的信貸週期及其潛在挑戰，這是我們風險管理框架內的首要任務之一。透過我們的通路平台和數據分析工具，我們目前正在採用三重方法，包括：首先，啟用新的數位管道以較低的成本增加覆蓋範圍和客戶認知度。其次，建立洞察以更好地了解付款傾向，使我們能夠預測貸款惡化。第三，結合行為語言來緩解摩擦，進而提高再融資選擇的接受度。我們相信，這些互補策略將為我們提供靈活性，以跟上我們的產品系列表現。

Slide 7, our fourth value-driving pillar is the culture of efficiency and productivity we have created to ensure the continuous improvement of our process and an optimal use of resources. Two of the main initiatives we are currently working on are: first, journey to cloud to reduce fixed cost and provide more flexibility. As of September, 68% of our applications have successfully migrated or have been developed in the cloud, laying grounds for cost efficiency. And second, journey to open, seeking to migrate licensed IT components onto open source to capture savings and achieve governance.

投影片 7，我們的第四個價值驅動支柱是我們創造的效率和生產力文化，以確保流程的持續改善和資源的最佳利用。我們目前正在進行的兩項主要措施是：首先，轉向雲端以降低固定成本並提供更大的靈活性。截至9月，我們68%的應用程式已成功遷移或在雲端開發，為成本效率奠定了基礎。其次，走向開放，尋求將許可的 IT 元件遷移到開源上，以節省成本並實現治理。

To conclude, we strongly believe that a well-articulated management of all of these value-driving pillars explain to a large extent our market leadership, the soundness of our operation and the scalability of our business model. Thus, we are committed on further developing and encasing those capabilities to strengthen our competitive advantages and deliver sustainable value on the short, medium and long term.

總而言之，我們堅信，對所有這些價值驅動支柱的清晰管理在很大程度上解釋了我們的市場領先地位、我們營運的穩健性以及我們業務模式的可擴展性。因此，我們致力於進一步發展和鞏固這些能力，以增強我們的競爭優勢，並在短期、中期和長期內提供可持續的價值。

Now I want to turn the presentation to José Humberto Acosta, who will further elaborate on our third quarter 2023 results. José Humberto.

現在我想把演講交給 José Humberto Acosta，他將進一步闡述我們 2023 年第三季的表現。何塞溫貝托。

Thank you, Juan Carlos. Please go to Slide 8 for a snapshot of our Central American operation. During the quarter, these banks faced weaker loan and income growth, coupled with higher cost of risk and operational costs that lowered the profitability and contribution to the consolidated results. Moreover, Banco Agromercantil accrued 2 one-offs that lowered interest income and increased provisions on consumer loans, thus driving the net income to a loss. Notwithstanding the above, the aggregated NIM of the 3 banks has been growing steadily on a yearly basis. Those increasing its contribution to the consolidated net income relative to Colombia for the last 9 months of 2023 versus the same period in 2022, as shown on the upper right-hand side graph.

謝謝你，胡安卡洛斯。請前往投影片 8，了解我們中美洲業務的概況。本季度，這些銀行面臨貸款和收入成長疲軟，加上風險成本和營運成本上升，降低了獲利能力和對綜合業績的貢獻。此外，Banco Agromercantil 提列了兩次一次性利息，降低了利息收入並增加了消費貸款撥備，從而導致淨利潤出現虧損。儘管如此，這3家銀行的淨利差總額仍逐年穩定成長。與 2022 年同期相比，2023 年最後 9 個月對哥倫比亞合併淨利的貢獻增加，如右上圖所示。

It is also worth to mention that despite higher loan deterioration, only 3 banks run with a comfortable level of 90-day past due loans coverage, providing balance sheet protection. We remain positive on the political and economic outlook in El Salvador but more conscious about Guatemala, given the most recent political and social unrest.

另外值得一提的是，儘管貸款惡化程度較高，但只有 3 家銀行以 90 天逾期貸款覆蓋率的舒適水平運行，為資產負債表提供保護。我們對薩爾瓦多的政治和經濟前景保持樂觀，但鑑於最近的政治和社會動盪，對危地馬拉更加關注。

Please go to Slide #9. The consolidated loan book contracted 1.2% during the quarter and almost 1% year-over-year as high interest rates have lowered credit demand, encourage short-dated loans and prepayments in the commercial portfolio and risk appetite adjustments on consumer segment. As a matter of fact, in the last 12 months of the share of the consumer loans have yielded to mortgage and commercial loans, down to 21.8% of the total portfolio. Moreover, a 3% peso appreciation in the quarter reduced the contribution of the loans denominated in U.S. dollars. Net of FX, the loan portfolio will have decreased 0.2% quarter-over-quarter. However, from a client perspective, we continue acquiring new customers on almost all segments, laying grounds for loan growth on the future.

請轉到投影片 #9。由於高利率降低了信貸需求、鼓勵商業投資組合中的短期貸款和提前還款以及消費領域的風險偏好調整，本季度綜合貸款賬面收縮了 1.2%，同比收縮了近 1%。事實上，在過去12個月裡，消費貸款的份額已轉向抵押貸款和商業貸款，下降至總投資組合的21.8%。此外，本季比索升值 3%，減少了美元貸款的貢獻。扣除外匯因素，貸款組合將季減 0.2%。然而，從客戶的角度來看，我們繼續在幾乎所有細分領域獲取新客戶，為未來的貸款成長奠定基礎。

Please go to Slide #10. Despite the slight drop of the loan book, deposits still rose 0.3% quarter-over-quarter and 2.8% year-over-year, driven by a more conservative approach towards liquidity. As a result, our net stable fund ratio was running at a comfortable level of 117% as of September. The growth was led by time deposits that increased 3.3% in the quarter and 31% year-over-year, still attractive at the prevailing high interest rates due reflecting a slower pace of growth. Conversely, savings contracted 1.6% quarter-over-quarter and 11% year-over-year.

請轉到投影片#10。儘管貸款帳面小幅下降，但由於對流動性採取更保守的態度，存款仍較上季成長 0.3%，年增 2.8%。因此，截至 9 月份，我們的淨穩定基金比率運行在 117% 的舒適水平。成長主要由定期存款帶動，本季成長 3.3%，年成長 31%，在當前高利率的情況下仍然具有吸引力，因為這反映了成長速度放緩。相反，儲蓄季減 1.6%，年減 11%。

Moreover, as a part of our liability management strategy seeking to optimize our funding structure, in July, we launched a cash tender offer for the 2025 senior bonds by which $468 million were purchased, reducing the outstanding bonds balance by 10% quarter-over-quarter and 12% on a yearly basis. On the other hand, trade and working capital loans in dollars have reduced 7% quarter-over-quarter and 14% year-over-year on the back of lower demand. All in all, the cost of funding increased to 5.8%, still well below the Central Bank reference rate, reinforcing our competitive advantage in attracting low-cost deposits. Albeit our asset-sensitive balance sheet structure, we have increased to 68% the share of fixed rate time deposits maturing in less than a year to provide some margin protection when interest rates start coming down in the foreseeable future.

此外，作為尋求優化融資結構的負債管理策略的一部分，我們於 7 月啟動了 2025 年高級債券的現金要約收購，購買了 4.68 億美元，使未償還債券餘額環比減少 10%。按季度計算，按年計算12%。另一方面，由於需求下降，以美元計算的貿易和營運資金貸款較上季減少了 7%，年減了 14%。整體而言，資金成本上升至5.8%，仍遠低於央行參考利率，增強了我們吸引低成本存款的競爭優勢。儘管我們的資產負債表結構對資產敏感，但我們已將一年內到期的固定利率定期存款比例增加至 68%，以便在可預見的未來利率開始下降時提供一定的保證金保護。

Please go to Slide 11. Interest income slightly increased 0.3% quarter-over-quarter as interest and valuation on the investment portfolio grew [934%,] offsetting the 2.8% drop on interest income on loans and financial leases on the same period. On a yearly basis, interest income grew 24% due to the repricing dynamic as per our asset-sensitive condition and because new loans are disbursed at higher interest rates. Consistent with the growth on time deposit disputes above, interest expenses grew 2.7% during the quarter and almost 80% year-over-year as it continues to capture the rise in interest rates. NII fell 1.7% quarter-over-quarter and 2.7% on a yearly basis, reflecting the lower income generation capacity as loan volumes has contracted.

請參閱投影片 11。由於投資組合的利息和估值成長 [934%]，利息收入較上季小幅成長 0.3%，抵銷了同期貸款和融資租賃利息收入 2.8% 的下降。由於根據我們的資產敏感狀況進行重新定價動態以及新貸款以更高的利率發放，利息收入同比增長 24%。與上述定期存款糾紛的成長一致，本季利息支出增加了 2.7%，由於持續受到利率上升的影響，利息支出較去年同期成長了近 80%。 NII 環比下降 1.7%，年減 2.7%，反映貸款量萎縮導致創收能力下降。

Consequently, a NIM breakdown shows the lending NIM fell 34 basis points quarter-over-quarter to 7.6%, whereas the investment NIM returned to its normal level close to 1%, contributing to an increase of total NIM to 6.8%. Given the higher reference rate for year-end as per the updated forecast, we reaffirm our view on a sustained NIM of around 7% for the coming quarter.

因此，淨利差細分顯示，貸款淨利差較上季下降 34 個基點至 7.6%，而投資淨利差則恢復至接近 1% 的正常水平，導致總淨利差上升至 6.8%。鑑於最新預測的年底參考利率較高，我們重申下一季淨利差持續在 7% 左右的觀點。

Please go to Slide 12. Net fee income dropped 4% quarter-over-quarter and was almost flat year-over-year as fee expenses growth outpaced fee income growth driven by higher third-party provided cost and processing charges. Consistently, fee income ratio fell to 18.4% for the quarter. Payment and collection related fees grew the most on the annual and yearly basis, provided the growth on clients and the positive evolution of our digital channel-oriented strategy. Income related to the fleet leasing operation keeps a growing trend, posting a 4.6% increase during the quarter and 27% year-over-year, contributing to almost 48% of orders income performance that grew 153% year-over-year despite contracting at 70% during the quarter.

請參閱投影片 12。淨費用收入較上季下降 4%，比去年同期幾乎持平，因為第三方提供的成本和處理費用較高，費用支出成長超過了費用收入成長。本季的費用收入比率持續下降至 18.4%。支付和收款相關費用年增最快，推動了客戶的成長以及我們以數位管道為導向的策略的積極發展。與車隊租賃業務相關的收入維持成長趨勢，本季成長 4.6%，年成長 27%，貢獻了近 48% 的訂單收入業績，儘管訂單收入有所收縮，但同比增長 153%。本季為70% 。

Please go to Slide 13. Net provision expenses for credit losses for the quarter was COP 1.6 trillion, a 23% decrease quarter-over-quarter and equivalent a cost of risk of 2.5%, implying a 60 basis points drop from the previous quarter. The drivers behind this reduction were threefold. First, a COP 240 billion released due to the sale of a massive transportation system-related corporate loan in Colombia. Second, COP 141 billion decreased quarter-over-quarter on the Consumer segment in Colombia, given its better performance. And third, lower provisions related to macro inputs. All the above helped to compensate the one-off provision charge that Banco Agricola had to accrue in the quarter related with the change in its credit card core system.

請參閱投影片 13。本季信貸損失撥備淨額為 1.6 兆哥倫比亞比索，季減 23%，相當於風險成本 2.5%，比上一季下降 60 個基點。這種減少背後的驅動因素有三。首先，由於哥倫比亞出售了一筆與運輸系統相關的巨額企業貸款，因此釋放了 2,400 億哥倫比亞比索。其次，哥倫比亞消費領域的表現較好，季環比下降 1,410 億哥倫比亞比索。第三，降低宏觀投入相關規定。所有這些都有助於補償農業銀行在本季因信用卡核心系統變化而產生的一次性撥備費用。

Moreover, commercial loans kept showing an overall growth performance, except for some cases for which extra positions have been accrued. On the flip side, the 90-day past due loan ratio for the quarter increased to 3.2% from 3% in the last quarter due to more past due such as consumer loans running into past due and a couple of specific commercial loans. This, coupled with the above-mentioned provision release, resulted in a drop of 90-day past due loans coverage ratio to 188%, albeit still provided a strong coverage to the balance sheet. Consistent with the lower past due loan formation in consumer segment in Colombia, there was a slight increase on the share of loans in Stage 1 that reached 87.3% on those. Stage 2 remain well contained at a level of 6.7%. The combined coverage for Stage 1 and Stage 2 loans premiums at a level of 41%.

此外，除個別新增部位外，商業貸款整體維持成長態勢。另一方面，由於逾期消費貸款和一些特定商業貸款等更多逾期貸款，本季 90 天逾期貸款比率從上一季的 3% 上升至 3.2%。加上上述撥備的釋放，導致90天逾期貸款覆蓋率下降至188%，儘管仍為資產負債表提供了強勁的覆蓋率。與哥倫比亞消費領域逾期貸款形成率較低的情況一致，第一階段的貸款比例略有增加，達 87.3%。第二階段仍然很好地控制在 6.7% 的水平。第一階段和第二階段貸款保費的綜合覆蓋率為 41%。

Moving to Slide 14, I will further discuss some credit quality in Colombia. Personal loans that represent 53% of consumer loans accounted for most of deterioration during the period, increasing its 90-day past due loan ratio to 6.6% and, therefore, the share of loans in Stage 2 and 3 to 21%. However, given the lower pace of past due loan formation disputes above, the cost of risk decreased to 15.5%. Moreover, credit cards, auto loans and payroll loans performed alike personal loans pushing the 90-day past due loan ratio upwards to 5.1% and reaching a 17.8% share of loans in Stage 2 and 3, but posting a lower cost of risk of 12.9%.

轉到幻燈片 14，我將進一步討論哥倫比亞的一些信貸品質。佔消費貸款 53% 的個人貸款是該期間惡化的主要原因，其 90 天逾期貸款比率上升至 6.6%，因此第二階段和第三階段的貸款比例上升至 21%。然而，鑑於上述逾期貸款形成糾紛的速度較低，風險成本下降至 15.5%。此外，信用卡、汽車貸款和薪資貸款的表現與個人貸款相似，將90 天逾期貸款比率推至5.1%，在第二階段和第三階段的貸款中所佔比例達到17.8%，但風險成本較低，為12.9%。 %。

We have reduced the volume of preapproved loans offered to individuals in almost 45% year-over-year and 7% quarter-over-quarter. Therefore, the evolution of past due loan formation in consumer loans in Colombia continues showing the same trend, and it's running below the average of the first half of the year, although admittedly, at a slower pace than expected. Although far from ideal, we remain with a lower 90-day past due loan ratio for the Colombian financial system as of July 2023, driven by our superior credit assessments, data-based credit models and collection process that provide us with more accurate insights that allow us to better mitigate the duration.

我們向個人提供的預先核准貸款數量較去年同期減少了近 45%，較上季減少了 7%。因此，哥倫比亞消費貸款中逾期貸款形成的演變繼續呈現相同的趨勢，儘管不可否認，其速度低於上半年的平均水平，但速度低於預期。儘管遠非理想，但截至2023 年7 月，我們對哥倫比亞金融體系的90 天逾期貸款比率仍然較低，這得益於我們卓越的信用評估、基於數據的信用模型和催收流程，這些為我們提供了更準確的見解，讓我們更能縮短持續時間。

Please go to Slide 15. The cost-to-income ratio for the quarter was 47% as operating expenses grew to close to 2.3% quarter-over-quarter and almost 20% year-over-year. The main driver for this growth continues being the higher transactions and deposits, related taxes introduced with last year fiscal reform that had a 73% year-over-year, up 15% quarter-over-quarter increase. Personnel-related expenses decreased 1.4% quarter-over-quarter, driven by lower severance payments by increased focus to 20% year-over-year as per annual wage increase.

請參閱投影片 15。本季的成本收入比為 47%，營運費用較上季成長至接近 2.3%，較去年同期成長近 20%。這一增長的主要動力仍然是交易和存款的增加，以及去年財政改革引入的相關稅費，年增 73%，環比增長 15%。人事相關費用較上季下降 1.4%，原因是年度薪資增幅年增 20%，遣散費減少。

And last, administrative-related expenses grew 5% quarter-over-quarter and 20% on a year basis due to the higher expenses devoted to business transformation. Net of FX, taxes and actual valuations on certain employee's benefits, OpEx annual growth will have been 13.4%, in line with inflation. We continue committed on cost control initiatives to increase efficiency and boost productivity, which coupled with a sound NIM should maintain efficiency ratio of around 46% for the year-end.

最後，由於業務轉型費用增加，行政相關費用較上季成長 5%，較去年同期成長 20%。在扣除外匯、稅收和某些員工福利的實際估值後，營運支出年增率將為 13.4%，與通貨膨脹率一致。我們持續致力於成本控制舉措，以提高效率和生產力，再加上良好的淨利差，年底的效率率應維持在46%左右。

Please go to Slide 16. Net income for the quarter was COP 1.5 trillion, equivalent to a 2.1% growth quarter-over-quarter, driven by lower provisions. In turn, return on equity for the period increased to 16.1%, which if adjusted for goodwill, results in a return of tangible equity of 28%, reflecting the profitability of the operations isolated of goodwill-related costs. On a yearly basis, however, net income fell 8.4% on the back of the loan book contraction, mild net income generation, higher provision expenses, and other high costs are disbursed early.

請參閱投影片 16。在準備金減少的推動下，本季淨利潤為 1.5 兆哥倫比亞比索，相當於季增 2.1%。反過來，該期間的股本回報率增至 16.1%，如果考慮商譽，則有形股本回報率為 28%，反映了與商譽相關成本無關的業務獲利能力。然而，由於貸款帳面收縮、淨收入產生溫和、撥備費用增加以及其他高成本提前支付，淨利潤年減了 8.4%。

Finally, on Slide 17, I will present the evolution of capital generation. Shareholders' equity grew 2.8% on a quarterly and yearly basis, well above assets that remained flat over the same periods, reflecting the bank's capital generation capacity to sustain a sound balance sheet. Basel III total capital adequacy ratio stood at 12.8%, increasing 29 basis points over the quarter, with a CET1 ratio of 10.87%, a 42 basis points growth driven by a combination of lower risk-weighted assets, FX appreciation and a combination of net income during the year.

最後，在投影片 17 上，我將介紹資本產生的演變。股東權益按季度和按年計算增長 2.8%，遠高於同期持平的資產水平，反映了該銀行維持穩健資產負債表的資本產生能力。巴塞爾協議 III 總資本充足率為 12.8%，較本季上升 29 個基點，其中 CET1 比率為 10.87%，在風險加權資產降低、外匯升值以及淨值上升等因素共同推動下，增長 42 個基點。年內的收入。

Now I will hand over the presentation back to Juan Carlos for some final remarks. Juan Carlos?

現在我將把簡報交還給胡安·卡洛斯，讓他做最後的演講。胡安卡洛斯？

Thank you, José Humberto. Please go to Slide 18 for some remarks regarding our sustainability strategy. Moving ahead with our strategy. As of third quarter, we had disbursed almost COP 28 trillion during the year and an aggregate of COP 131 trillion since 2020 for small-scale agribusiness, green buildings and gender-related loans, amongst others. Moreover, as a part of our sustainability framework, we made progress on the following 3 initiatives: first, from an environmental perspective, we included blue taxonomy seeking to promote maritime ecosystem conservation and protection. Second, we continue making progress on our financial wellbeing strategy, by which we provide our clients with financial education regarding savings and investment, financial planning and retirement amongst others, for better decision-making. And third, as a part of our social initiatives, we launched our human rights due diligence protocol, under the [ROGE] framework and to identify, control and monitor the risk over our stakeholders and mitigate them accordingly.

謝謝你，何塞溫貝托。請參閱投影片 18，以了解有關我們永續發展策略的一些評論。繼續推進我們的策略。截至第三季度，我們年內已為小型農業企業、綠色建築和性別相關貸款等支付了近 28 兆哥倫比亞比索，自 2020 年以來總計支付了 131 兆比索。此外，作為永續發展框架的一部分，我們在以下三項措施上取得了進展：第一，從環境角度，我們納入了藍色分類法，旨在促進海洋生態系統的維護和保護。其次，我們在財務健康策略方面不斷取得進展，為客戶提供有關儲蓄和投資、財務規劃和退休等方面的財務教育，以幫助他們做出更好的決策。第三，作為我們社會措施的一部分，我們在 [ROGE] 框架下啟動了人權盡職調查協議，以識別、控制和監控利害關係人的風險並相應地減輕風險。

Finally, on Slide 19, I will share our guidance for the year-end 2023. Based on the information we have today and the updated macro inputs forecast, we maintain the guidance for NIM on around 7% as the average rate of the Central Bank will remain high during the year, for the efficiency ratio on around 46% and for core equity Tier 1 on around 11%. On the other hand, we now expect loan growth of around 3.4% in peso-denominated loans and 1.2% in dollar-denominated loans. However, given this lower downward trend in inflation and interest rates, we now expect more deterioration and higher expenses for the last quarter than 3 months ago, pushing our cost of risk guidance to 2.7% to 2.9% and, consequently, adjusting guidance on ROE to 15% area.

最後，在投影片 19 上，我將分享我們對 2023 年底的指導。根據我們今天掌握的資訊和更新的宏觀投入預測，我們將淨利差指導維持在 7% 左右，作為央行的平均利率年內將維持較高水平，效率比率約為46%，核心一級權益比率約為11%。另一方面，我們現在預計比索計價貸款將成長約 3.4%，美元計價貸款將成長 1.2% 左右。然而，鑑於通膨和利率下降趨勢放緩，我們現在預計最後一個季度的情況將比3 個月前更加惡化，費用也會更高，從而將我們的風險指導成本推至2.7% 至2.9%，從而調整ROE 指導至 15% 面積。

With this, we conclude our remarks for the third quarter results. Now we can take any questions you may have. Thank you.

至此，我們結束了對第三季業績的評論。現在我們可以回答您的任何問題。謝謝。

Thank you. (Operator Instructions) Our first question is from Beatriz Abreu with Goldman Sachs.

謝謝。 （操作員說明）我們的第一個問題來自高盛的 Beatriz Abreu。

My first question is regarding the profitability outlook from here, just revised guidance for 2023 for ROE downwards to around 15%. Just wondering for next year, what are you thinking for profitability, given the revised economic outlook, more challenging macro scenario? If you talk a little bit about that, that would be great.

我的第一個問題是關於這裡的獲利前景，剛剛將 2023 年 ROE 指導下調至 15% 左右。只是想知道明年，考慮到經濟前景的調整和更具挑戰性的宏觀環境，您對盈利能力有何看法？如果您能談論一下這一點，那就太好了。

And the second question would be on provisions and cost of risk. If you could talk a little bit more about the provision release that happened this quarter, if you're expecting any additional releases coming from that specific loan? And if you could also discuss a little bit your expectations for provisions and cost of risk for next year, that would also be great.

第二個問題是關於準備金和風險成本。您能多談談本季發生的撥備發放情況嗎？您是否預期該特定貸款會發放更多撥備？如果您也可以討論一下您對明年的準備金和風險成本的預期，那就太好了。

Thank you, Beatriz, for your questions. Regarding profitability, the key factor, as you know, for the profitability of Bancolombia this year and next year will be the cost of risk. The third quarter, we had a cost of risk of 2.5%, but we had that cost of risk as the influence of one-off. We saw commercial credit alone, sorry, and that's why we are reversing some provisions.

謝謝你，比阿特麗斯，提出問題。關於獲利能力，眾所周知，哥倫比亞銀行今年和明年獲利能力的關鍵因素將是風險成本。第三季度，我們的風險成本為 2.5%，但我們的風險成本是一次性的影響。抱歉，我們只看到了商業信貸，這就是我們撤銷某些條款的原因。

Regarding your question, that's not going -- particularly regarding that loan, that is not going to happen. We are very active on managing the -- our portfolio of loans, and we actively look to sell or manage those loans, but those -- every case is different. So for now on, what we are expecting is that the cost of risk for the end of the year will be around 2.5% and for the whole year, will be between 2.7% and 2.9%. That drives the ROE down to 15% area.

關於你的問題，這是不會發生的——特別是關於那筆貸款，這是不會發生的。我們非常積極地管理我們的貸款組合，並且我們積極尋求出售或管理這些貸款，但每種情況都是不同的。因此，目前我們預計，年底的風險成本將在2.5%左右，全年的風險成本將在2.7%至2.9%之間。這使得 ROE 下降至 15%。

Regarding 2024, we expect the trend to continue, even though we expect that the cost of risk should be lower than the one that we are going to have during 2023. But loan growth is not going to be very healthy during 2024. So 2024 will be a challenging year regarding loan growth, but we think that we can maintain or we can manage the cost of risk in a level that is lower than the one that we will have at the end of 2024 -- '23, I'm sorry. So with all of that, we expect, as I said, a challenging year 2024, but with a profitability that will cover our cost of equity. I don't know, José, if you want to add something to this?

關於 2024 年，我們預計這一趨勢將持續下去，儘管我們預計風險成本應低於 2023 年的水平。但 2024 年貸款成長不會非常健康。因此 2024 年對於貸款成長而言，這是充滿挑戰的一年，但我們認為我們可以維持或可以將風險成本管理在低於2024 年底的水平- '23，對不起。因此，正如我所說，我們預計 2024 年將是充滿挑戰的一年，但獲利能力將涵蓋我們的股本成本。我不知道，何塞，你是否想對此添加一些內容？

That's clear.

很清楚。

Okay. That's it, Beatriz.

好的。就是這樣，比阿特麗斯。

Just a quick follow-up, if I may, just trying to make sure that I understand. So for the fourth quarter, the coming quarter, you mentioned you're expecting cost of risk roughly stable at 2.5%. Is that correct? And then finishing the whole year at around 2.7% to 2.9%?

如果可以的話，我只是快速跟進一下，只是想確保我理解。因此，對於第四季度，即下一個季度，您提到您預計風險成本將大致穩定在 2.5%。那是對的嗎？然後全年成長率約為 2.7% 至 2.9%？

That's correct, Beatriz. Yes.

沒錯，比阿特麗斯。是的。

Okay. Even though this quarter, you had the one-off, you still expect to deliver a stable cost of risk in the last quarter?

好的。即使本季出現了一次性的情況，您仍然期望在上一季實現穩定的風險成本嗎？

Yes. That's correct. And that's because the main deterioration is coming from consumer loans. And we are now the vintages that now we have -- or were originated with a different risk profile. That risk profile changed at the end of 2022. So the maturity of those loans and what we are seeing is that those loans are behaving better than those that were originated before that at the beginning of 2022 and 2021. So that's why we are expecting that the deterioration of the consumer loans will not -- it's not going to drive a higher cost of risk at the end of 2024.

是的。這是正確的。這是因為主要的惡化來自消費貸款。我們現在擁有的年份——或者說起源於不同的風險狀況。這種風險狀況在 2022 年底發生了變化。因此，這些貸款的到期日以及我們所看到的是，這些貸款的表現比 2022 年初和 2021 年初發放的貸款要好。這就是為什麼我們預計到2024 年底，消費貸款的惡化不會導致風險成本上升。

Beatriz, regarding your question, if we have more cases like this one-off, it was a very opportunistic sale of a loan that was fully provisioning, but we don't expect any other releases during at least the next quarter of this year.

Beatriz，關於你的問題，如果我們有更多這樣的一次性案例，那麼這是一個非常機會主義的貸款出售，已完全撥備，但我們預計至少在今年下一個季度不會有任何其他釋放。

Our next question is from the line of Jiten Singh with HSBC.

我們的下一個問題來自匯豐銀行的 Jiten Singh。

So my question is on the asset quality. So you still see some deterioration in deposits, especially on the consumer book. So I just wanted to understand, when do you expect the peak of NPLs or cost of risk? And should we expect provisions to at least remain at the current level in the next few quarters?

所以我的問題是關於資產品質。因此，您仍然會看到存款惡化，尤其是消費帳戶上的存款。所以我只是想了解，您預計不良貸款或風險成本何時會達到高峰？我們是否應該預期未來幾季的準備金將至少保持在當前水準？

Thank you for your question. I had some issues with the line, so I'm going to try to answer your question. Regarding consumer loans, I mentioned that, that was the main source of deterioration during the quarter, the third quarter, and has been the main source of deterioration during the full year. So your question is when are we expecting the peak of that consumer loan deterioration. I think we are pretty much at the peak, and what we expect is that next quarter, fourth quarter of this year, we'll have a deterioration above our long-term deterioration for consumer loans, but will be lower than the one we had during the third quarter. So that will drive to a cost of risk for the fourth quarter of around 2.5%. So -- and mainly the main driver of that cost of risk is the consumer loan deterioration. I don't know if I answered your question.

謝謝你的問題。我在線上遇到了一些問題，所以我將嘗試回答您的問題。關於消費貸款，我提到過，這是第三季惡化的主要根源，也是全年惡化的主要根源。所以你的問題是，我們預期消費貸款惡化何時會達到高峰。我認為我們幾乎處於頂峰，我們預計下個季度，今年第四季度，我們的消費貸款惡化程度將高於長期惡化程度，但會低於我們的情況在第三季度期間。因此，這將導致第四季度的風險成本約為 2.5%。因此，風險成本的主要驅動因素是消費者貸款惡化。我不知道我是否回答了你的問題。

That's helpful. And if I can ask a second question on the operating expenses. I mean, OpEx growth has been slightly higher in 9 months, and I guess the part of it has to do with the higher inflation and FX. What should we expect for this year and for the next year?

這很有幫助。我能否問第二個問題關於營運費用。我的意思是，營運支出的成長在 9 個月內略有上升，我猜這部分與通貨膨脹和外匯的上漲有關。我們對今年和明年應該期待什麼？

Okay. Regarding OpEx, we -- for next year, we are expecting that OpEx should grow around 10%. Inflation in Colombia should be around, I don't know, probably 8% or a little bit less than that, probably more towards 7%. But we have pressure on what is going to be the wages increase in Colombia, the minimum wage increase in Colombia. And we expect that to be around 10% probably or maybe even higher than that. So we will have some pressure from the cost of -- from the labor cost. And regarding the general expenses, we expect those to grow less. So that's our guidance for 2024. I don't know, José, if you have a comment?

好的。關於營運支出，我們預計明年營運支出將成長 10% 左右。我不知道，哥倫比亞的通貨膨脹率應該在 8% 左右，或稍低一點，可能接近 7%。但我們對哥倫比亞的工資成長、哥倫比亞最低工資成長面臨壓力。我們預計這一比例可能在 10% 左右，甚至更高。因此，我們將面臨一些來自勞動成本的壓力。至於一般開支，我們預期成長幅度會較小。這就是我們對 2024 年的指導。José，我不知道您對此有何評論？

Yes. Regarding 2023, we are expecting at the end of the year an expenses growth of around 22%, and remember that the main impact of this deviation of expenses, it is because of 2 reasons: The first one is taxation related to business, that was increased more than 60% annual basis. And the second one element is FX variation, that was at around 9%. If you deduct these 2 elements, FX and taxation related to business, the expenses growth for this year is going to be at the area of 13%, aligned with the inflation that Juan mentioned at the beginning of the presentation.

是的。關於2023年，我們預計年底費用將增長在22%左右，請記住，這種費用偏差的主要影響是由於兩個原因：第一個是與業務相關的稅收，即年均增長60%以上。第二個因素是外匯變化，約 9%。如果扣除外匯和與業務相關的稅收這兩個因素，今年的費用增長將在 13% 左右，與胡安在演講開頭提到的通貨膨脹一致。

Our next question is from the line of [Julian Locke] with Davivienda. Please go ahead.

我們的下一個問題來自 [Julian Locke] 和 Davivienda 的對話。請繼續。

I would like to ask you a few questions. The first one is, how are you feeling about the deterioration of asset quality indicators? Also in the 30 days and the 90 days because if we see the results, the duration has increased. But the cost of risk or the provision have decreased. The second question is regarding the taxation, effective tax rate. We have seen during the last quarters that the effective tax rate is not as higher as other -- as your peers. So we would like to understand what are the reason of that and why the effective rate of Bancolombia is below its peers?

我想問你幾個問題。第一個是，您對資產品質指標惡化有何感受？同樣在 30 天和 90 天，因為如果我們看到結果，持續時間就會增加。但風險成本或準備金已經下降。第二個問題是關於稅收，有效稅率。我們在過去幾個季度中看到，有效稅率並不像其他國家那麼高。那我們想了解這是什麼原因以及為什麼哥倫比亞銀行的有效率低於同業？

Thank you, Julian. As we mentioned already, the third quarter was affected by a one-off that explains why the cost of risk was lower. And -- but we see deterioration, as we already mentioned on the consumer loans, and that's why the 30-day and 90-day past due loans increased during the quarter. As we mentioned, we expect that to be the peak for this year and that the behavior of the consumer loans during the fourth quarter should be better than the one that we had during the third quarter. Regarding taxes, our effective tax rate is lower or is low because some special -- our special situation.

謝謝你，朱利安。正如我們已經提到的，第三季受到一次性影響，這解釋了為什麼風險成本較低。而且，正如我們在消費貸款方面已經提到的那樣，我們看到情況惡化，這就是本季 30 天和 90 天逾期貸款增加的原因。正如我們所提到的，我們預期這將是今年的高峰，第四季消費貸款的表現應該會比第三季好。關於稅收，我們的有效稅率較低或較低，因為一些特殊的—我們的特殊情況。

The source of net income during this year, it's -- the distribution of that source of net income during this year is, it's more from our operations outside Colombia than have -- and those operations have a lower tax rate. So the contribution of the Central American operations is bigger during this year. That's why the mix between the lower tax rates outside Colombia and the tax rate in Colombia, it results in a lower effective tax rate on a consolidated basis.

今年的淨收入來源是——今年淨收入來源的分配是，更多來自我們在哥倫比亞以外的業務——而且這些業務的稅率較低。所以今年中美洲業務的貢獻更大。這就是為什麼哥倫比亞境外的較低稅率與哥倫比亞境內的稅率結合，導致綜合有效稅率較低。

The other reason is that the leasing business in Colombia has a special tax treatment in the case of Colombia, so that benefit -- and because we are having a good performance on that line also affects the effective tax rate. Even though the tax rate -- the effective tax rates during this year is around 23%, 24%, we expect by the end of the year to end in that effective tax rate around 26%. And for next year, we expect that effective tax rate to be 28%, Julian.

另一個原因是哥倫比亞的租賃業務享有特殊的稅收待遇，因此受益匪淺，而且因為我們在這方面的良好表現也影響了有效稅率。儘管稅率——今年的有效稅率約為23%、24%，但我們預計到今年年底，有效稅率將達到26%左右。朱利安，我們預計明年的有效稅率為 28%。

Just a follow-up on the asset quality. I would like to know your position about the commercial loans, if there is any sector that you are worried about or in which sector that Bancolombia has, there is any like worries about the sector, anything specific like construction, energy or something like that?

只是資產品質的後續行動。我想知道您對商業貸款的立場，是否有您擔心的任何部門，或者哥倫比亞銀行在哪個部門，對該部門是否有任何類似的擔憂，例如建築、能源或類似的部門？

The loans, regarding commercial loans have been performing well. The sectors that has been affected are mainly around construction, housing construction, but that is already incorporated in our provisions. So we don't see a particular sector that has -- or with a deterioration that worries us. So it's more regarding probably construction next year. And agriculture worries us a little bit because of climate and because of El Nino that could affect the performance of the agricultural sectors. I think, Julian, those are the main concerns that we have as of today.

商業貸款方面的貸款表現良好。受影響的行業主要是建築、房屋建設，但這已經納入我們的規定中。因此，我們沒有看到某個特定產業出現了令我們擔憂的惡化情況。所以更多的是關於明年的建設。由於氣候和厄爾尼諾現象可能會影響農業部門的表現，農業讓我們有點擔心。朱利安，我認為這些是我們今天面臨的主要問題。

(Operator Instructions) Our next question is from the line of Andres Soto with Santander.

（操作員說明）我們的下一個問題來自桑坦德銀行的安德烈斯·索托（Andres Soto）。

I have a couple of questions. The first one is regarding liquidity conditions in the Colombian financial system. This year was tough due to the under-execution of the government. And we see that the budget for next year implies a significant expansion. Are you confident that this will translate in improvement in liquidity conditions? And based on that, what is your expectations for margins in 2024? That would be my first question.

我有一些問題。第一個是關於哥倫比亞金融體系的流動性狀況。由於政府執行不力，今年是艱難的一年。我們看到明年的預算意味著大幅擴張。您是否有信心這將轉化為流動性狀況的改善？基於此，您對 2024 年利潤率的預期是多少？這是我的第一個問題。

My second question is regarding the Nequi monetization process. Can you please walk us through how do you see this process going on? What is the source of monetization, this transactional income? It is floating, it is new loans? And when are you expecting Nequi to be accretive to Bancolombia results?

我的第二個問題是關於 Nequi 貨幣化流程。您能否向我們介紹一下您如何看待這個過程？貨幣化的來源是什麼，即交易收入？是浮動的，是新貸款嗎？您預計 Nequi 何時會增加 Bancolombia 的業績？

Thank you, Andres, for your questions. Let me answer first your second question, and I'll pass your first one to José Humberto. Nequi continues its evolution. Now we are focusing on separating Nequi from Bancolombia. And that's where we are -- or what we are doing now. We expect that process to end probably at the middle of next year. So Nequi will be a separate entity fully owned by Bancolombia. We continue growing the number of users, it's now close to 18 million, 1-8 million. And the number of active users, monthly active users is close to 13 million. So the usage of Nequi is very, very, very high. And that's a source of a lot of information.

安德烈斯，謝謝你的提問。讓我先回答你的第二個問題，然後我會將你的第一個問題轉給何塞溫貝托。 Nequi 繼續發展。現在我們的重點是將 Nequi 與 Bancolombia 分開。這就是我們所處的位置——或者說我們現在正在做的事情。我們預計這一過程可能會在明年年中結束。因此，Nequi 將成為哥倫比亞銀行全資擁有的獨立實體。我們的用戶數量持續成長，目前已接近 1,800 萬、1-800 萬。而活躍用戶數，每月活躍用戶接近1300萬。所以Nequi的使用率非常非常非常高。這是很多資訊的來源。

But also regarding your question of monetization of giving us the ground to move to profitability. You ask if what is our source of monetization, and it's going to come from different sources. Loans will be one, and we are already moving on that direction. The fees and transactions are also a source of monetization. Insurance is also a good source of monetization, but that process will take time. So summarizing, we are focusing on separating Nequi. Then from there, we will start -- we will continue our journey to profitability that we will expect to consolidate during 2025, Andres. And your first question, I'm going to ask José Humberto to address.

還有關於貨幣化的問題，為我們提供獲利的基礎。你問我們的貨幣化來源是什麼，它會來自不同的來源。貸款將是其中之一，我們已經在朝著這個方向前進。費用和交易也是貨幣化的來源。保險也是一個很好的貨幣化來源，但這個過程需要時間。總而言之，我們的重點是分開 Nequi。然後從那裡開始，我們將繼續我們的盈利之旅，我們預計將在 2025 年鞏固這一目標，安德烈斯。你的第一個問題，我將請何塞·溫貝托（José Humberto）回答。

Before we go there, just a follow-up. So when you speak about the spin-off, that implies that Nequi will operate under a separate banking license?

在我們去那裡之前，先做一個後續行動。那麼，當您談到分拆時，這是否意味著 Nequi 將在單獨的銀行牌照下運作？

Yes, that's correct, Andres. Nequi already applied for a separate banking license, and that process already concluded with the Superintendencia Financiera and was awarded. So we are in the process of completing all the requirements to operate as a separate financial entity with a separate license -- banking license, Andres.

是的，這是正確的，安德烈斯。 Nequi 已經申請了單獨的銀行執照，該流程已與金融監管局完成並獲得批准。因此，我們正在完成作為具有單獨許可證（銀行許可證，安德烈斯）的獨立金融實體運營的所有要求。

Andres, regarding your first question, we don't see any particular concern regarding banking industry with liquidity. Remember, in the first Q, there were potentially some pressure in order to the financial institutions to comply with the net stable funding ratio? Today, we are having a very, very good level of comfort as an industry. Particularly in Bancolombia, remember that we have a very strong funding composition basically because of our new level of transactionality. So just to give you an idea, the cash funding in lease are around 60% of our funding. So for the end of the year, we don't see any particular concern.

安德烈斯，關於你的第一個問題，我們認為銀行業的流動性沒有任何特別的擔憂。還記得嗎，在第一個問題中，金融機構遵守淨穩定融資比率可能會面臨一些壓力？今天，我們作為一個行業擁有非常非常好的舒適度。特別是在哥倫比亞銀行，請記住，我們擁有非常強大的資金組成，這主要是因為我們的交易性達到了新的水平。僅供參考，租賃中的現金資金約占我們資金的 60%。因此，對於今年年底，我們沒有看到任何特別的擔憂。

Regarding your second question, margins for 2024, there will be some pressure on margins next year, particularly in Bancolombia because of loan growth next year will be -- the main driver will be commercial with tighter NIMs. So we are expecting at the end of the year, maybe a compression of the NIM in between 20 to 50 basis points.

關於你的第二個問題，即2024 年的利潤率，明年的利潤率將面臨一些壓力，特別是在哥倫比亞銀行，因為明年的貸款成長將是——主要驅動力將是淨利差收緊的商業驅動力。因此，我們預計到今年年底，淨利差可能會壓縮 20 到 50 個基點。

Perfect. Thank you, Humberto. And now that you are speaking about the general conditions in the financial system, obviously, Bancolombia stands out because of the access to funding and the balance sheet. But are you concerned in any way with what is going on with the Colombian financial system? Can we see some banks belly up under these conditions that are not apparently to improve in the short term?

完美的。謝謝你，溫貝托。既然你談論的是金融體系的整體狀況，顯然，哥倫比亞銀行因其融資管道和資產負債表而脫穎而出。但您是否關心哥倫比亞金融體系的現況？我們是否會看到一些銀行在這些短期內不會明顯改善的情況下破產？

No, Andres. What we see is more a short-term or a structural situation. Liquidity was an issue, as you mentioned, during the year. So some banks should go to the market and go for resources and they had to pay an interest rate that affected their margins. But we don't see a structural situation that could be -- or that could generate some issues in the financial sector. We see more -- I think that the level of capital, how the banks are performing in general in the financial system, it's good, so we don't see any issues from there.

不，安德烈斯。我們看到的比較是短期或結構性的情況。正如您所提到的，今年流動性是一個問題。因此，一些銀行應該去市場上獲取資源，但他們不得不支付影響其利潤率的利率。但我們不認為結構性情況可能會或可能在金融部門產生一些問題。我們看到更多——我認為資本水準、銀行在金融體系中的整體表現都很好，所以我們沒有看到任何問題。

The best way to clarify that point, Andres, is if you double check the net stable funding ratio of the system, all of us, we are complying above 105%, all of the banks. So we don't have any particular concern.

安德烈斯，澄清這一點的最好方法是，如果你仔細檢查系統的淨穩定資金比率，我們所有人，我們所有銀行都遵守 105% 以上的規定。所以我們沒有任何特別的擔憂。

As there are no further questions, I would now hand the conference over to Juan Carlos Mora, CEO, for closing comments.

由於沒有其他問題，我現在將會議交給執行長胡安·卡洛斯·莫拉 (Juan Carlos Mora) 進行總結評論。

Thank you all for participating in the third quarter conference call. We expect the year to end in the same trend that we are seeing now. And we will present the results for the full year in February, where we will present the results of Bancolombia. The -- as we mentioned during this call, what we are watching very carefully, it's the risk behavior of our clients, particularly on consumer loans. And also, that's what we will be watching during 2024. So those are -- that is going to be the main driver of our results in the coming quarters. So hope you'll be in our next conference call, and I wish you a very good day. Thank you very much.

感謝大家參加第三季電話會議。我們預計今年結束時的趨勢與我們現在看到的相同。我們將在二月公佈全年業績，屆時我們將公佈哥倫比亞銀行的業績。正如我們在這次電話會議中提到的，我們正在非常仔細地關注我們客戶的風險行為，特別是在消費貸款方面。而且，這就是我們將在 2024 年關注的內容。因此，這些將成為我們未來幾季業績的主要驅動力。希望您能參加我們的下一次電話會議，祝您有美好的一天。非常感謝。

The conference of Bancolombia has now concluded. Thank you for your participation. You may now disconnect your lines.

哥倫比亞銀行會議現已結束。感謝您的參與。現在您可以斷開線路。