Grupo Cibest SA (CIB) 2023 Q2 法說會逐字稿

Good morning, ladies and gentlemen, and welcome to Bancolombia's Second Quarter 2023 Earnings Conference Call. My name is Alan, and I will be your operator for today's call. (Operator Instructions). Please note that this conference is being recorded.

早安，女士們、先生們，歡迎參加哥倫比亞銀行 2023 年第二季財報電話會議。我叫艾倫，我是今天電話的接線生。 （操作員說明）。請注意，本次會議正在錄製中。

Please note that this conference call will include forward-looking statements, including statements related to our future performance, capital position, credit-related expenses and credit losses. All forward-looking statements, whether made in this conference call and future filings, in press releases or verbally, address matters that involve risks and uncertainty. Consequently, there are factors that could cause actual results to differ materially from those indicated in such statements, including changes in general economic and business conditions, changes in currency exchange rates and interest rates, introduction of competing products by other companies, lack of acceptance of new products or services by our targeted clients, changes in business strategy and various other factors that we describe in our reports filed with the SEC.

請注意，本次電話會議將包含前瞻性陳述，包括與我們未來業績、資本狀況、信貸相關費用和信貸損失有關的陳述。所有前瞻性聲明，無論是在本次電話會議和未來的文件中、在新聞稿中或口頭上，都涉及涉及風險和不確定性的事項。因此，存在一些因素可能導致實際結果與此類報表中所示的結果有重大差異，包括總體經濟和商業狀況的變化、貨幣匯率和利率的變化、其他公司推出競爭產品、缺乏接受度等。我們的目標客戶推出的新產品或服務、業務策略的變化以及我們在向SEC 提交的報告中所述的各種其他因素。

With us today is Mr. Juan Carlos Mora, Chief Executive Officer; Mr. Mauricio Rosillo, Chief Corporate Officer; Mr. Jose Humberto Acosta, Chief Financial Officer; Mr. Rodrigo Prieto, Chief Risk Officer; Mrs. Catalina Tobon, Investor Relations and Capital Markets Director; and Mrs. Laura Clavijo, Chief Economist.

今天與我們在一起的是首席執行官胡安·卡洛斯·莫拉 (Juan Carlos Mora) 先生； Mauricio Rosillo 先生，首席公司長； Jose Humberto Acosta 先生，財務長； Rodrigo Prieto 先生，首席風險長； Catalina Tobon 女士，投資者關係和資本市場總監；以及首席經濟學家 Laura Clavijo 女士。

I will now turn the call over to Mr. Juan Carlos Mora, Chief Executive Officer. Mr. Juan Carlos, you may begin.

我現在將把電話轉給執行長胡安·卡洛斯·莫拉先生。胡安·卡洛斯先生，您可以開始了。

Good morning, and welcome to Bancolombia's Second Quarter Results Conference Call. To begin, please go to Slide 2. The results for the quarter reflect the less favorable macro conditions under which the bank is currently operating. In Colombia, in particular, the circumstances have become more challenging due to the economic slowdown driven by lower internal consumption, lower trade flows and less dynamic foreign direct investment with an underlying high inflation that has kept interest rates high as we will further elaborate. These circumstances have discouraged credit, harmed asset quality and elevated operational costs, driving a moderation on the loan book and income growth, resulting in a net income for the quarter of COP 1.5 trillion.

早安，歡迎參加哥倫比亞銀行第二季業績電話會議。首先，請前往投影片 2。本季的業績反映了該銀行目前營運的宏觀環境較不利。特別是在哥倫比亞，由於國內消費下降、貿易流量減少和外國直接投資活力減弱導致經濟放緩，加上潛在的高通膨使利率保持在高位，情況變得更具挑戰性，我們將進一步闡述。這些情況抑制了信貸、損害了資產品質並提高了營運成本，導致貸款帳簿和收入成長放緩，導致本季淨收入達到 1.5 兆比索。

It is worth to highlight the stronger contribution that the Central American operation is delivering as all 3 banks in the region continue making progress on income generation, cost control and profitability. Partially compensating the current slower growth of the Colombian operation and providing the merits of our diversification strategy. Due to the Colombian peso appreciation on the quarter that reduced the contribution of the U.S. dollar-denominated loans, the consolidated loan book contracted quarter-over-quarter, albeit still growing at a much moderated rate year-over-year on the back of lower credit demand. Similarly, deposits also fell during the quarter due to FX appreciation and slowed its pace of growth on a yearly basis.

值得強調的是，隨著該地區所有 3 家銀行在創造收入、成本控制和盈利能力方面繼續取得進展，中美洲業務正在做出更大的貢獻。部分彌補了哥倫比亞業務目前成長放緩的影響，並為我們的多元化策略提供了優勢。由於本季哥倫比亞比索升值，減少了以美元計價的貸款的貢獻，綜合貸款賬簿環比收縮，儘管在較低的利率背景下仍以較去年同期溫和的速度增長。信貸需求。同樣，由於外匯升值，本季存款也有所下降，並放緩了同比增長速度。

Furthermore, as interest rates remained high, the shift from savings to debt -- to time deposits continues exerting more pressure on the funding cost. NIM remained high, posting at 6.7% for the quarter, driven by the lending margin as per our asset-sensitive condition. We recorded COP 2.1 trillion in net provisions equivalent to a cost of risk of 3.1% for the period. However, it is showing a descending pace of growth, suggesting a better forecast in terms of deterioration as we will further elaborate.

此外，由於利率居高不下，從儲蓄到債務（到定期存款）的轉變繼續對融資成本施加更大的壓力。根據我們的資產敏感狀況，受貸款利潤率的推動，淨利差保持在較高水平，本季為 6.7%。我們記錄了 2.1 兆比索淨準備金，相當於該期間 3.1% 的風險成本。然而，它顯示出成長速度正在下降，這表明對惡化的預測更好，我們將進一步闡述。

The coverage ratio of the 90 days NPLs is 207%. Basel III core equity Tier 1 ratio increased to 10.4%, well above the minimum regulatory levels reflecting the capacity to generate organic capital. OpEx increased mainly as a matter of inflation and higher taxes and efficiency ratio reached 44%.

90天不良貸款覆蓋率為207%。巴塞爾協議 III 核心股權一級比率增至 10.4%，遠高於反映有機資本生成能力的最低監管水準。營運支出的成長主要是由於通貨膨脹和稅收提高，效率比率達到 44%。

All things consider strong NIM and other operating income performance offset higher costs and expenses, which coupled with smaller loan book result in ROE of 15.7% for the quarter. Going forward, even as the government's ability to pass through its ambitious reform agenda has lost some ground. It is still soon to assess the potential economic and social impacts that these or other set of initiatives may have particularly due to fiscal imbalances, labor cost and deterioration on country risk sentiment. We continue committed on our long-term strategy, confident on the robustness of Colombian institutions and the regulatory framework.

綜合考慮，強勁的淨利差和其他營業收入表現抵消了成本和費用的增加，再加上貸款帳目減少，導致本季度淨資產收益率達到 15.7%。展望未來，儘管政府實施雄心勃勃的改革議程的能力已經失去了一些優勢。目前還需要評估這些或其他一系列措施可能產生的潛在經濟和社會影響，特別是由於財政失衡、勞動成本和國家風險情緒惡化而產生的影響。我們繼續致力於我們的長期策略，對哥倫比亞機構和監管框架的穩健性充滿信心。

For further detail on the macro outlook, I will turn the presentation to Laura Clavijo, our Chief Economist. Laura?

有關宏觀前景的更多詳細信息，我將向我們的首席經濟學家勞拉·克拉維霍 (Laura Clavijo) 進行演示。勞拉？

Thank you, Juan Carlos. Indeed, our updated economic forecast for Colombia pose a more promising scenario for 2023 than previously expected, nonetheless, modest growth for 2024. Despite the resilient performance of the Colombian economy with 3% GDP growth in the first quarter, we anticipate a further slowdown in economic activity during the second half of the year. For 2023, we have doubled our growth forecast to 1.2% from April scenario of 0.6%, driven mainly by the statistical carryover effect from solid first quarter growth and we expect moderate GDP growth of 0.9% for 2024.

謝謝你，胡安卡洛斯。事實上，我們對哥倫比亞最新的經濟預測提出了比之前預期更有希望的2023 年經濟前景，但2024 年增長溫和。儘管哥倫比亞經濟表現強勁，第一季GDP 增長3%，但我們預計經濟成長將進一步放緩下半年的經濟活動。對於 2023 年，我們將成長預測從 4 月的 0.6% 上調至 1.2%，這主要是由於第一季穩健成長帶來的統計結轉效應，我們預計 2024 年 GDP 將溫和成長 0.9%。

In fact, weakening economic activity is already evident in monthly leading indicators that reflect a meager 0.5% growth as of May. Private consumption and investment have been pressured by high inflation, rising interest rates and declining consumer confidence, impacting performance of key productive sectors such as retail, transportation, construction, mining and manufacturing. On the positive side, inflation has consistently fallen over the course of the past few months. After peaking at 13.3% in March, CPI has decreased to 12.1% year-over-year as of June, driven by declining food prices. However, inflationary pressures to core inflation persists, fuel price adjustments, indexation of service fees, particularly in housing as well as increases in electricity and gas tariffs will remain stubbornly high.

事實上，經濟活動的疲軟已經在月度領先指標中顯現出來，截至 5 月的成長率僅為 0.5%。私人消費和投資受到高通膨、利率上升和消費者信心下降的壓力，影響了零售、運輸、建築、採礦和製造業等關鍵生產部門的表現。從積極的一面來看，過去幾個月通膨持續下降。在食品價格下跌的推動下，CPI 在 3 月達到 13.3% 的峰值後，截至 6 月已年減至 12.1%。然而，核心通膨的通膨壓力依然存在，燃料價格調整、服務費指數化（特別是住房服務費）以及電價和瓦斯費上漲將仍居高不下。

Consequently, we maintain our 2023 inflation forecast of 9% end of year, but foresee potential pressures to regulated goods and food prices in 2024, resulting from indexation and climate led effects from the phenomenon of El Nino.

因此，我們維持 2023 年底通膨率 9% 的預測，但預計由於指數化和厄爾尼諾現象造成的氣候影響，2024 年受監管商品和食品價格可能面臨壓力。

Only in early 2026, should inflation return to the Central Bank's target. Receding inflation, labor market resilience and overall stability in the financial sector has enabled the Central Bank to halt interest rate hikes and keep rates stable at 13.25% during the past few months. Given the conditions we expect the Central Bank to begin cutting rates as early as October and up to 75 basis points before year-end. Expectations of an ending tightening cycle, both globally and locally, have contributed to easing market conditions and improving terms of trade.

只有到 2026 年初，通膨才會回到央行目標。通膨回落、勞動市場彈性以及金融部門整體穩定，使得央行在過去幾個月停止升息並將利率穩定在13.25%。鑑於目前的情況，我們預計央行最快將於 10 月開始降息，並在年底前降息最多 75 個基點。全球和本地對結束緊縮週期的預期有助於緩解市場狀況並改善貿易條件。

Finally, in comparison to a year ago, there are notable corrections in Colombia's macroeconomic imbalances, which have improved our country risk position reflects better financing conditions and reduced vulnerability to external shocks. Indeed, we've seen a process of adjustment in the current account deficit, which has improved from a 6.2% of GDP deficit in 2022 to an expected 3.6% deficit this year. Unfortunately, driven by a significant slowdown of both imports and exports.

最後，與一年前相比，哥倫比亞宏觀經濟失衡出現顯著糾正，改善了我國的風險狀況，反映出更好的融資條件和降低了抵禦外部衝擊的脆弱性。事實上，我們已經看到經常帳赤字的調整過程，從2022年赤字佔GDP的6.2%改善到今年預期的3.6%。不幸的是，受進出口大幅放緩的推動。

On the fiscal side, the central government's deficit is expected to adjust to 4.3% of GDP in 2023, which signals a significant improvement from the 7% level deficit of 2021. Nonetheless, the government relies on uncertain sources for additional income, such as litigation and tax collection efficiencies amidst increasing social spending goals and decreasing global oil prices.

財政方面，預計2023年中央政府赤字佔GDP的比重將調整至4.3%，較2021年7%的赤字水準有顯著改善。但政府額外收入來源仍依賴不確定性，例如訴訟在社會支出目標不斷提高和全球石油價格下降的情況下提高稅收效率。

In sum, 2023 began with an overall negative outlook regarding global growth in Colombia's expected economic performance. Even though this year will be, in fact, characterized by an economic slowdown, this is now expected to occur in a far more positive scenario driven by receding inflation and expectations of an ending tightening cycle.

總之，2023 年伊始，哥倫比亞的預期經濟表現對全球成長整體持負面看法。儘管今年的特點實際上是經濟放緩，但目前預計，在通膨回落和緊縮週期結束預期的推動下，經濟將出現更積極的情況。

Now please let me turn the presentation back to Juan Carlos, who will present Bancolombia's quarterly performance.

現在請讓我將演講轉回胡安·卡洛斯，他將介紹哥倫比亞銀行的季度業績。

Thank you, Laura. Now we move to Slide 4. This opportunity, I want to introduce these 5 value-driven pillars that are framed within our purpose and therefore, are the foundation for our current and future results and for which we will continuously comment going forward. First, a client-centric approach to design and deliver integrated solutions; second, an evolving interoperable and multichannel platform; third, our corporate structure and governance model, our financial management and our risk and capital controls as fruits to our performance and last, our culture of efficiency and productivity as a catalyst for profitability.

謝謝你，勞拉。現在我們轉到投影片 4。藉此機會，我想介紹這 5 個價值驅動的支柱，它們是我們的目標框架內的，因此是我們當前和未來結果的基礎，我們將不斷對此發表評論。首先，以客戶為中心的方法來設計和交付整合解決方案；其次，不斷發展的可互通和多通路平台；第三，我們的公司結構和治理模式、我們的財務管理以及風險和資本控制是我們績效的成果，最後，我們的效率和生產力文化是獲利能力的催化劑。

Moving to Slide 5. I want to share a snapshot of the main initiatives we are working on the Pillar 1, seeking integrated solutions leveraged on information, analytics and technology. First, our ecosystem model under which we are orchestrating experiences in our own channels and allowing third parties to develop financial services under their own brand.

轉到投影片 5。我想分享我們在第一支柱方面正在進行的主要舉措的快照，即尋求利用資訊、分析和技術的整合解決方案。首先，我們的生態系統模式，在這個模式下，我們在自己的通路中精心策劃經驗，並允許第三方以自己的品牌開發金融服務。

Second, we are transforming our value proposition for agro business, productive supply chain and social and environmental projects. A good example is the origination of loans for small farmers through our digital wallet, Bancolombia A la Mano. And third, we are continuously evolving our analytics-based models to further enhance our preapproved loans accuracy. Our ratings models and the collection process to estimate clients' payments capacity and anticipate to credit deterioration.

其次，我們正在轉變農業業務、生產供應鏈以及社會和環境項目的價值主張。一個很好的例子是透過我們的數位錢包 Bancolombia A la Mano 為小農發放貸款。第三，我們不斷發展基於分析的模型，以進一步提高我們預先批准的貸款的準確性。我們的評級模型和收款流程可估計客戶的支付能力並預測信用惡化。

Moving to Slide 5 -- 6, sorry. Now I will refer to the main initiatives we are working on the Pillar 2 that are essential to further enhance our transactional capabilities. Over time, we have built a robust multichannel platform as we deem each channel has an essential vocation. Going forward, we will pursue further capillarity and interoperability, hand in hand with our digital evolution. As of June, we had more than 8 million digital active clients in our app Bancolombia, and Nequi has reached more than 17 million customers.

轉到幻燈片 5 - 6，抱歉。現在我將介紹我們在第二支柱方面正在進行的主要舉措，這些舉措對於進一步增強我們的交易能力至關重要。隨著時間的推移，我們已經建立了一個強大的多通路平台，因為我們認為每個管道都有其重要的使命。展望未來，我們將進一步追求毛細作用和互通性，與我們的數位發展攜手並進。截至 6 月，我們的應用程式 Bancolombia 擁有超過 800 萬名數位活躍客戶，而 Nequi 的客戶數量已超過 1,700 萬。

Furthermore, we are developing our Super App and Super Web models, providing several financial and nonfinancial services that connect demand and supply in one place, such as banking services, transportation, home services, amongst others, thus accelerating digitalization and engaging customer experience.

此外，我們正在開發超級應用程式和超級網路模型，提供多種金融和非金融服務，將需求和供應連接到一處，例如銀行服務、交通、家庭服務等，從而加速數位化和吸引客戶體驗。

After this general strategic overview, I want to turn now the presentation to Jose Humberto Acosta, who will further elaborate on our second quarter 2023 results. Jose?

在整體策略概述之後，我現在想向 Jose Humberto Acosta 進行演示，他將進一步詳細闡述我們 2023 年第二季的業績。何塞？

Thank you, Juan Carlos. Please go to Slide 7 in which I will elaborate on our regional operations and its contribution. The Colombian loan book represents almost 70% of the total portfolio, whereas the Central American operation accounts for roughly 27%, providing a good source of diversification in growing economies with different market dynamics. Banagricola stand out given its higher net income generation, coupled with a very low cost of risk that drives profitability, posting and above average return on equity of 20.6% for the quarter. Going forward, we expect the bank to continue delivering very positive results in a more promising economy and political environment seem to be underway.

謝謝你，胡安卡洛斯。請參閱投影片 7，我將在其中詳細介紹我們的區域業務及其貢獻。哥倫比亞貸款帳戶幾乎佔總投資組合的 70%，而中美洲業務約佔 27%，為具有不同市場動態的成長型經濟體提供了良好的多元化來源。 Banagricola 脫穎而出，因為其較高的淨利潤產生，加上極低的風險成本推動了盈利能力，該季度的股本回報率為 20.6%，高於平均水平。展望未來，我們預計該銀行將在更有前景的經濟和政治環境中繼續取得非常積極的業績。

Also, it's worth highlighting BAM and Banitsmo positive yearly evolution as reflected in the higher NIMs and return on equities and well suited to pursue growth opportunities on the back of the better performing economies.

此外，值得強調的是，BAM 和 Banitsmo 每年都在積極發展，這反映在較高的淨利差和股票回報率上，並且非常適合在表現較好的經濟體的支持下尋求成長機會。

Nonetheless, we remain cautious of the inherent political and economic uncertainties in these geographies, and those, we are working with a risk-adjusted return approach and enhancing contract initiatives to boost profitability.

儘管如此，我們仍然對這些地區固有的政治和經濟不確定性保持謹慎，我們正在採用風險調整回報方法並加強合約措施以提高獲利能力。

Please go to Slide 8, in which I will elaborate on our strong and well-diversified loan portfolio In which commercial loans represent almost 64%, consumer 22% and mortgages 14%. The overall loan growth during the quarter was affected by a 3.4% on average peso appreciation on the quarter. The consolidated loan book decreased 2.4% quarter-over-quarter by the sharper deceleration of consumer segment as high interest rates have harm, credit demand and risk appetite has been adjusted.

請看幻燈片 8，我將在其中詳細介紹我們強大且多元化的貸款組合，其中商業貸款幾乎佔 64%，消費者貸款佔 22%，抵押貸款佔 14%。本季整體貸款成長受到比索平均升值 3.4% 的影響。由於高利率的損害、信貸需求和風險偏好的調整，消費領域成長大幅放緩，綜合貸款帳面季減 2.4%。

Commercial loans decreased the lease during the period, explained by a couple of large corporate loans disbursed in June. On a yearly basis, the pace of growth has significantly decelerated to a 7.4% rate as of second quarter, consistent with the credit cycle described previously. Net of FX, the loan book will have been grown 1.3% quarter-over-quarter, albeit still reflecting the significant moderation in terms of growth.

商業貸款減少了期內的租賃量，六月發放的幾筆大型企業貸款解釋了這一點。按年計算，截至第二季度，成長速度已大幅放緩至 7.4%，與先前描述的信貸週期一致。扣除外匯因素，貸款帳面季增 1.3%，儘管仍反映出成長顯著放緩。

Break it down into segments, as shown on the bottom graph, we want to comment not only on the positive evolution in terms of clients and loan growth in each but also to highlight the growth and value potential that the SME segment represent provided that the growth in clients have outpaced that loans, leaving enough room to further grow leverage on client-centric integrated solutions.

將其分為幾個部分，如下圖所示，我們不僅要評論每個部分在客戶和貸款成長方面的積極演變，還要強調中小企業部分所代表的成長和價值潛力，前提是成長客戶的成長速度已經超過了貸款，為進一步提高以客戶為中心的綜合解決方案的影響力留下了足夠的空間。

Please go to Slide #5. Consistent with the loan book performance, total deposits fell 3% quarter-over-quarter with a higher than the average contraction in savings and current accounts and a modest 1% growth in time deposits. Year-over-year, deposits grew 9.5%, slightly above loan growth and mainly explained by time deposits with a 48% increase whereas savings accounts recorded a drop of almost 5%.

請轉到投影片#5。與貸款帳面表現一致，總存款較上季下降 3%，儲蓄和往來帳戶收縮幅度高於平均水平，定期存款小幅增加 1%。存款年增 9.5%，略高於貸款成長，主要是由於定期存款增加 48%，而儲蓄帳戶則下降近 5%。

As expected, time deposits increased its share on the total deposit reaching at 35%, albeit growing at a slower pace on a quarterly and yearly basis. On the other hand, savings account kept its share at 38% of the total funding mix whereas shaking and other funding sources leaded to time deposits. These larger portion of time deposits and the rise in interest rate expenses paid on loans and bonds due to higher interest rates, increased the cost of funding during the period to 5.5%. It is also worth to highlight that 62% of our outstanding fixed rate time deposits mature in less than a year, providing some margin protection upon interest rate cuts.

一如預期，定期存款佔存款總額的比重上升至 35%，但按季及年增速較慢。另一方面，儲蓄帳戶在總資金組合中的份額保持在38%，而資金動搖和其他資金來源則導致定期存款。定期存款佔比較大，加上利率上升導致貸款和債券支付的利率費用增加，導致期內融資成本上升至5.5%。另外值得強調的是，我們未償還的固定利率定期存款中有62%在不到一年的時間內到期，在降息時提供了一定的保證金保護。

Due to the loss, the lending dynamic in the market, we do not foresee funding pressures affecting our cost of funds for the remainder of the year nor our ability to maintain comfortable liquidity coverage and net stable funding ratios.

由於損失以及市場的貸款動態，我們預計融資壓力不會影響我們今年剩餘時間的資金成本，也不會影響我們保持寬鬆的流動性覆蓋率和穩定的淨融資比率的能力。

Please go to Slide #10. Interest income decreased 3.3% quarter-over-quarter, attributed to a fall in interest income and valuations on the investment portfolio in the period. However, this drop on the investment portfolio income is compensated by income on derivatives recorded under other operating income.

請轉到投影片#10。利息收入環比下降3.3%，主要是由於期內利息收入和投資組合估值下降。然而，投資組合收入的下降由其他營業收入下記錄的衍生性商品收入補償。

On a yearly basis, interest income grew 52% due to the repricing dynamic as per our asset-sensitive condition and because new loans are disbursed at higher interest rates. On the flip side, interest expenses grew 2.9% during the quarter despite the drop on deposits, mainly explained by the change in funding mix. Year-over-year, it grew 153% as it continues to capture the rise in interest rates.

由於我們的資產敏感狀況的重新定價動態以及新貸款以更高的利率發放，利息收入年增 52%。另一方面，儘管存款下降，本季利息支出增加了 2.9%，這主要是由於融資組合的變化。隨著利率的上升，它同比增長了 153%。

Consequently, NII fell almost 8% quarter-over-quarter, but increased 14% on a yearly basis. On the other hand, when analyzing the NIM by companies the lending NIM was 7.9%. That is 3 basis points higher compared to the last quarter and 86 basis points year-over-year, whereas the investment NIM fell by 458 basis points quarter-over-quarter, dragging the overall NIM to 6.7%.

因此，NII 環比下降近 8%，但年增 14%。另一方面，在分析各公司的淨利差時，貸款淨利差為 7.9%。較上季上升 3 個基點，較上季上升 86 個基點，而投資淨利差較上季下降 458 個基點，將整體淨利差拖至 6.7%。

Please go to Slide 11. Net income slightly decreased, minus 0.36% quarter-over-quarter, yet increased 13.5% year-over-year despite fee expenses growth outpacing that of fee income on the back of higher costs related to the third-party providers and processing charges. The income ratio was 19.6% for the quarter. It's worth mentioning that the fee income generation is well diversified in terms of sources. Also, I want to highlight the good result and positive evolution of income related to the fleet leasing operation, which was a driver to other income performance that reached 13% growth quarter-over-quarter and 127% year-over-year.

請參閱投影片 11。淨利潤略有下降，環比下降 0.36%，但同比增長 13.5%，儘管由於第三方相關成本上升，費用支出增長超過了費用收入的增長供應商和處理費用。該季度的營收比率為19.6%。值得一提的是，手續費收入的來源非常多元。此外，我想強調與車隊租賃業務相關的收入的良好成果和積極發展，這推動了其他收入表現，季度環比增長 13%，同比增長 127%。

Please go to Slide 12, in which we present our provision expenses as support to a strong coverage. Net provision expenses for credit losses for the quarter were COP 2.1 trillion, equivalent to a cost of risk of 3.1% for the period. This represents an increase of 1.8% quarter-over-quarter driven by new nonperforming loans and rollovers, mainly on the consumer segment in Colombia as high inflation and high interest rates kept harming individual payment capacity during the period. As a matter of fact, there was COP 158 billion increase quarter-over-quarter in provision expenses on the consumer segment in Colombia to which we will refer to further on.

請參閱投影片 12，其中我們展示了我們的撥備費用，作為對強大保險範圍的支援。本季信貸損失撥備淨額為 2.1 兆披索，相當於該期間 3.1% 的風險成本。受新增不良貸款和展期推動，季增 1.8%，主要針對哥倫比亞的消費領域，因為在此期間高通膨和高利率持續損害個人支付能力。事實上，哥倫比亞消費領域的撥備支出較上月增加了 1,580 億哥倫比亞比索，我們將在後面進一步提及。

On the other hand, even as the economic backdrop has become more challenging, commercial loans are performing well despite of some accelerated cases in the corporate segment that do not represent systemic risk. Also, except for Colombia, where provisioning expenses grew 7% quarter-over-quarter, the rest of the countries in which we operate provision expense decreased, denoting better-than-expected asset performance driven by more favorable macro perspectives and credit payment behavior.

另一方面，儘管經濟背景變得更具挑戰性，儘管企業部門出現了一些不代表系統性風險的加速案例，但商業貸款仍表現良好。此外，除哥倫比亞的撥備支出環比增長7%外，我們開展業務的其他國家的撥備支出均有所下降，這表明在更有利的宏觀前景和信貸支付行為的推動下，資產表現好於預期。

The 90-day past due loan ratio for the quarter increased to 3%, up from 2.7% in the first quarter, reflecting higher past due rollovers in consumer and a couple of specific commercial loans. Nevertheless, our allowances as a percentage of past due loans remains strong and represents 207% coverage of 90-day past due loans.

本季的 90 天逾期貸款比率從第一季的 2.7% 上升至 3%，反映出消費貸款和一些特定商業貸款的逾期展期增加。儘管如此，我們的準備金佔逾期貸款的比例仍然很高，涵蓋 90 天逾期貸款的 207%。

From an expected loss perspective, 87% of our total loan book remains currently in Stage 1. The 12.9% remaining balance is composed of Stage 2 and 3 loans, which represent the current and potential NPLs, all of which have a coverage of 41.7%. Although, Stage 3 increases due to the rollovers, Stage 2 balance remains controlled because of the several actions taken to cut back deterioration.

從預期損失的角度來看，我們貸款總額的 87% 目前仍處於第一階段。12.9% 的剩餘餘額由第二階段和第三階段貸款組成，代表當前和潛在的不良貸款，所有這些貸款的覆蓋率均為41.7% 。儘管第三階段因展期而增加，但由於採取了多項措施來減少惡化，第二階段的平衡仍然受到控制。

Moving to Slide #13. I will elaborate some further insights on credit quality for Colombia, where the loan deterioration focus has been. Same as in the previous quarter, deterioration occurred mainly in Consumer segment, which holds at 16.4% balance in Stage 2 and 3 and 90-day past due loans ratio at around 4.8% and consequently, cost of risk of 13.3% remaining as an outlier.

轉到投影片 #13。我將詳細闡述有關哥倫比亞信貸品質的一些進一步見解，哥倫比亞的貸款惡化問題一直是該國的重點。與上一季相同，惡化主要發生在消費領域，第二階段和第三階段的餘額為 16.4%，90 天逾期貸款比率約為 4.8%，因此，13.3% 的風險成本仍屬於異常值。

Personal loans that represents 54% of consumer loans accounted for most of the deterioration with a 6% past -- 90-day past due loan ratio and 16% cost of risk. Whereas credit card is well contained running with a 90-day past due ratio of 3.9% below the overall segment's metric.

佔消費貸款 54% 的個人貸款是惡化的主要原因，逾期 90 天的貸款比率為 6%，風險成本為 16%。而信用卡運作良好，90 天逾期率低於整個細分市場的 3.9%。

As discussed in our previous call, this deterioration phase is consistent with our consumer segment penetration strategy based on pre-approval loans, which, in our view, has been successful from a risk-adjusted return perspective. However, aware of the potential risk to asset quality, the strategy came to a halt for lower income segments, and thus, we have reduced our preapproved loans to individuals in almost 28% year-over-year and 17.6% quarter-over-quarter.

正如我們在先前的電話會議中所討論的，這一惡化階段與我們基於預先批准貸款的消費者細分滲透策略是一致的，我們認為，從風險調整回報的角度來看，該策略是成功的。然而，由於意識到資產品質的潛在風險，該策略針對低收入群體停止了，因此，我們對個人的預先批准貸款同比減少了近 28%，環比減少了 17.6% 。

Consequently, the pace of deterioration for consumer segment in Colombia has started to subside as observed in the lower left chart as of May. Also in the bottom right chart, you can see the 90-day past due loans for the Colombian financial system as of April 2023. Although far from ideal, the explanation for our better than the average system performance is twofold.

因此，如圖左下圖所示，截至 5 月份，哥倫比亞消費領域惡化的速度已開始放緩。同樣在右下角的圖表中，您可以看到截至 2023 年 4 月哥倫比亞金融系統逾期 90 天的貸款。雖然遠非理想，但我們的系統表現優於平均水平的原因有兩個。

First, is due to our well-articulated sectorial risk assessment that provide us tools from an in-depth understanding of each industry and those allow us to properly diversify, anticipate and support our customers with solutions and to adjust quickly to credit cycles. And second, it is also the result of our enhanced collection process based on analytics, which has increased client contact effectiveness, allowing us to move ahead earlier, preventing further deterioration.

首先，是由於我們清晰的部門風險評估為我們提供了深入了解每個行業的工具，使我們能夠適當地實現多元化，透過解決方案預測和支持我們的客戶，並快速適應信貸週期。其次，這也是我們基於分析增強收集流程的結果，這提高了客戶聯繫效率，使我們能夠更早採取行動，防止進一步惡化。

Please go to Slide #14, where I will discuss upon efficiency and our productivity initiatives. The cost-to-income ratio for the quarter reached 44%, as operating expenses grew 3.2% quarter-over-quarter and 25.8% year-over-year, mainly driven by: first, higher taxes related to transactions and deposits as per last year fiscal reform; second, higher personnel expenses due to the annual wage increase and higher actuarial valuations on certain employees' benefits resulting in higher NPVs; and third, higher IT expenses related to our business transformation and journey to the cloud. Also, net of FX, the annual growth would have been 21.3%. We continue executing ambitious transformational projects and cost control initiatives that cover a wide range of areas. Confident that will -- that it will boost productivity going forward.

請轉到幻燈片#14，我將在其中討論效率和我們的生產力計劃。本季成本收入比達到 44%，營運費用較上季成長 3.2%，年增 25.8%，主要是由於： 第一，去年與交易和存款相關的稅費增加年財政改革；其次，由於年度薪資上漲和某些員工福利的精算估值較高，導致淨現值較高，導致人員費用增加；第三，與我們的業務轉型和雲端之旅相關的 IT 費用增加。此外，扣除外匯因素，年增率將為 21.3%。我們繼續執行涵蓋廣泛領域的雄心勃勃的轉型項目和成本控制措施。相信這將提高未來的生產力。

Please go to Slide 15 to further elaborate on our profitability metrics. As we had anticipated in our previous call, lower loan growth and net income generation, coupled with the higher provision expenses and overall cost has impacted our profitability. Net income for the quarter was COP 1.5 trillion, a 15% contraction quarter-over-quarter and 18% year-over-year. And consequently, return on equity decreased though it remains high at a level of 15.7%, which if adjusted for good results in a return of tangible equity, it will be 20.9%.

請前往投影片 15，進一步詳細說明我們的獲利指標。正如我們在先前的電話會議中所預期的那樣，貸款成長和淨收入產生下降，加上撥備費用和整體成本上升，影響了我們的獲利能力。本季淨利為 1.5 兆哥倫比亞比索，季減 15%，年減 18%。因此，股本回報率雖然仍處於 15.7% 的高位，但有所下降，如果根據有形股本回報率的良好結果進行調整，則為 20.9%。

And finally, on Slide 16, we present the evolution of capital generation. Shareholders' equity grew almost 10% year-over-year. Meanwhile, assets grew 8%, respectively, reflecting the bank's capacity to generate capital to foster growth whilst preserving a sound balance sheet. On the other hand, Basel III total capacity adequacy ratio increased to 12.5% on a consolidated basis for the quarter with a CET1 of 10.4% as net income generation in the quarter helped to offset the dividend payout declared in the previous quarter and the FX appreciation reduced some risk-weighted assets, capital consumption. Consequently, quarter-over-quarter, there was a CET1 generation of 70 basis points.

最後，在投影片 16 上，我們展示了資本產生的演變。股東權益較去年同期成長近10%。同時，資產分別成長了 8%，反映了該銀行在保持穩健資產負債表的同時創造資本促進成長的能力。另一方面，巴塞爾協議III本季綜合總產能充足率上升至12.5%，CET1為10.4%，因為本季產生的淨利潤有助於抵銷上一季宣布的股利支付和外匯升值減少了部分風險加權資產的資金消耗。因此，CET1 季度環比上升了 70 個基點。

Now I will hand over the presentation back to Juan Carlos for some final remarks. Juan?

現在我將把簡報交還給胡安·卡洛斯，讓他做最後的演講。胡安？

Thank you, Jose Humberto. Please go to Slide 17, in which I will comment on the progress made on our sustainability strategy. As a part of our business with purpose strategy, we have disbursed almost COP 20 trillion during the year, reaching an aggregated of COP 123 trillion since 2020. Also, last week, we closed $100 million sustainability-linked credit with Wells Fargo Bank, our third of this type to secure financing for our sustainability loan growth.

謝謝你，何塞·溫貝托。請參閱投影片 17，我將在其中評論我們的永續發展策略所取得的進展。作為我們有目的業務策略的一部分，我們在這一年中支付了近20 兆披索，自2020 年以來總計達到123 兆披索。此外，上週，我們與富國銀行（我們的富國銀行）完成了1 億美元的永續發展相關信貸。第三種是為我們的永續貸款成長提供融資。

Regarding sustainability framework, we made progress on the following 3 initiatives: First, we published our TCFD 2022 report containing our climate change strategy, risk management and metrics as well as our sustainability governance model by which we declare that our commitment is embedded in our corporate decision-making process fostering its execution. Second, we are moving ahead with the pilot program for Colombia under the Climate finance leadership initiative which aims to engage the private financial sector in supported climate action, mainly focused on energy, transportation and infrastructure sectors.

在永續發展框架方面，我們在以下三項措施上取得了進展：首先，我們發布了TCFD 2022報告，其中包含我們的氣候變遷策略、風險管理和指標以及我們的永續發展治理模型，透過該模型我們宣布我們的承諾已融入我們的企業決策過程以促進其執行。其次，我們正在氣候金融領導倡議下推動哥倫比亞試點計劃，該計劃旨在讓私營金融部門參與支持的氣候行動，主要專注於能源、交通和基礎設施部門。

And last, we declare our diversity, equity and inclusion strategy, a set of initiatives that passed the way so that by year 2025, at least 50% of the leadership positions in the bank are held by women.

最後，我們宣布了我們的多元化、公平和包容性策略，這是一系列已通過的舉措，以便到 2025 年，銀行至少 50% 的領導職位由女性擔任。

Please go to Slide 18, in which I will provide our guidance for year-end 2023, given the current macro environment. We expect a loan growth of around 2% in peso-denominated loans and 3.5% on dollar-denominated loans so that the consolidated results will depend on FX. A NIM of around 7% as the average rate of the central bank that determines reference rate will remain high during the year versus last year. In the long term, NIM should be around 5.5% area. In terms of cost of risk, we forecast an annual cost of risk between 2.4% and 2.6% as we expect further moderation in the economic activity coupled with still high rates and slowed downward inflation. We expect an efficiency ratio of 46% and an ROE of 16% area as we expect our asset sensitivity condition to keep above average margins. For the long term, we expect an ROE of around 15%. And last, provided our net income expected performance and FX forecast our core equity Tier 1 target remains in 11% area for year-end.

請轉到投影片 18，其中我將根據當前的宏觀環境提供 2023 年底的指導。我們預計比索計價貸款將成長約 2%，美元計價貸款將成長 3.5% 左右，因此綜合業績將取決於外匯。作為決定參考利率的央行平均利率，今年淨利差將維持在7%左右的高水準。從長遠來看，NIM 面積應在 5.5% 左右。就風險成本而言，我們預計年度風險成本將在 2.4% 至 2.6% 之間，因為我們預期經濟活動將進一步放緩，加上利率仍然較高，通膨下行速度放緩。我們預期效率率為 46%，淨資產收益率為 16%，因為我們預期我們的資產敏感性狀況將保持高於平均的利潤率。長期來看，我們預計 ROE 約為 15%。最後，如果我們的淨利潤預期表現和外匯預測，我們的核心股本一級目標年底仍保持在 11% 的區域。

And last, in Slide 19, I would like to share our investment thesis, a summary of our most distinctive drivers of future growth. We deliver integrated solutions on direct-client-centric approach that nourishes preferences and loyalty on a rapid growing client base. Second, our interoperable multichannel platform and digital evolution creates a competitive advantage, positioning us first in the market and fostering customer experience, efficiency and growth.

最後，在投影片 19 中，我想分享我們的投資論文，總結我們未來成長最獨特的驅動力。我們以直接以客戶為中心的方法提供整合解決方案，培養快速成長的客戶群的偏好和忠誠度。其次，我們的可互通的多通路平台和數位化發展創造了競爭優勢，使我們在市場上處於領先地位，並促進客戶體驗、效率和成長。

Third, our continuous investment in leading-edge technology and innovative operational capabilities support our business evolution and unlocks profitability. And fourth, we are a leading regional banking platform with access to broad funding sources, sound earnings generation and best-in-class risk and corporate governance.

第三，我們對領先技術和創新營運能力的持續投資支持我們的業務發展並釋放獲利能力。第四，我們是領先的區域銀行平台，擁有廣泛的資金來源、良好的獲利能力以及一流的風險和公司治理。

With this, we conclude our second quarter results conference call. We now invite you to our Q&A session.

至此，我們結束了第二季業績電話會議。我們現在邀請您參加我們的問答環節。

(Operator Instructions) Our first question comes from Tito Labarta of Goldman Sachs.

（操作員指示）我們的第一個問題來自高盛的 Tito Labarta。

I want to talk a little bit about the outlook for profitability from here. I know you gave a long-term guidance of ROE of 15% and the revised guidance for this year. Maybe thinking a little bit into next year, you lowered your loan growth guidance for this year. You increased the cost of risk a bit. You have decelerating GDP growth into next year, unemployment picking up a little bit. Could there be just additional downward pressures on profitability, thinking about 2024, will loan growth decelerate a bit more? When do you think asset quality would peak? I mean your revised guidance sort of implies that maybe the [worst] provisions might be behind us, but just to think a little bit about that and your margin should fall as you mentioned, as interest rates come down, particularly more in next year.

我想從這裡談談獲利前景。我知道你們給了15%的ROE長期指導以及今年修訂後的指導。也許考慮到明年，您降低了今年的貸款成長指引。你增加了一點風險成本。明年GDP成長將放緩，失業率略有上升。考慮到 2024 年，貸款成長是否會進一步放緩？獲利能力是否會面臨額外的下行壓力？您認為資產品質什麼時候會達到頂峰？我的意思是，您修訂後的指導方針有點暗示，也許[最糟糕的]條款可能已經過去，但只要稍微考慮一下這一點，您的利潤率應該會像您提到的那樣下降，因為利率下降，尤其是明年的利率下降。

So is that 15%, do you think doable in 2024? Could there be some downside risk to that just given some of the headwinds from the economic outlook that you're seeing?

那麼您認為 2024 年這個 15% 可行嗎？考慮到您所看到的經濟前景的一些不利因素，是否會存在一些下行風險？

Regarding the outlook for 2024, what we see is that the economic dynamics for 2024 will be better than for 2023, meaning that the GDP growth for the year should be around 2% to 2.5%. The global environment also will be better probably the fight against inflation, the global fight against inflation will be in their final phases and interest rates will start to go down globally.

關於2024年的展望，我們認為2024年的經濟動態將好於2023年，這意味著全年GDP成長率應在2%至2.5%左右。全球對抗通膨的環境也可能會更好，全球對抗通膨的鬥爭將進入最後階段，全球利率將開始下降。

And in Colombia, what we expect is that interest rates remain high, meaning that the rates going down will start at the end of the year. But during 2024 still we will have interest rates that are not going to be probably the rates for the long term, meaning that our margin -- our loan book margin will continue being high, if we compare it with the long-term NIM. And regarding risk, which is key, we are expecting that the risk peaks this year and we expect probably that, that peak is in this quarter that we are discussing. And loan growth won't be very, very dynamic.

在哥倫比亞，我們預計利率仍將保持在高位，這意味著利率將在年底開始下降。但到2024 年，我們的利率仍然可能不會是長期利率，這意味著如果我們將其與長期淨利差進行比較，我們的利潤率——我們的貸款帳面利潤率將繼續保持在較高水平。關於關鍵的風險，我們預計今年的風險將達到峰值，並且我們預計該峰值可能會出現在我們正在討論的本季度。而且貸款成長不會非常非常有活力。

So with all of this, to answer your question, if we believe that we can achieve the 15% ROE, we think that, all in all, combined, we are able to achieve that 15% ROE in 2024. We will be challenges regarding risk and we are very focused on how we originate the new loans now -- that are the loans that will be performing next year. So we are -- in that, we are very, very careful on origination, meaning that our focus is not on growing the loan book. It's in quality.

因此，綜上所述，為了回答你的問題，如果我們相信我們可以實現 15% 的 ROE，我們認為，總而言之，我們能夠在 2024 年實現 15% 的 ROE。我們將面臨以下挑戰：我們現在非常關注如何發放新貸款－這些貸款將在明年履行。因此，我們在發放貸款時非常非常謹慎，這意味著我們的重點不是增加貸款規模。這是品質。

So to summarize, margins will go down, but not as fast as we thought some months ago. So that will also give us some room from the income side. Margins will remain -- as a consequence, margins will remain high compared with the long-term average. The cost of risk should go -- looking for the long-term guidance, even though it could be a little bit higher during 2024, but we don't expect a big deterioration. And loan book won't be better dynamic. But with all, again, we think that we can achieve that 15% ROE for 2024.

總而言之，利潤率將會下降，但速度不會像我們幾個月前想像的那麼快。因此，這也將為我們在收入方面提供一些空間。利潤率將保持不變——因此，與長期平均水平相比，利潤率將保持在較高水平。風險成本應該消失——尋找長期指引，儘管 2024 年風險成本可能會稍高一些，但我們預計不會大幅惡化。貸款簿也不會變得更好。但無論如何，我們再次認為我們可以在 2024 年實現 15% 的 ROE。

Okay. Great. No, that's helpful, Juan Carlos. So I think, I guess some mix trends. So just on the loan growth to clarify. I know you said it won't be dynamic, but it sounds like perhaps that can accelerate a bit compared to the guidance that you've given for this year because, I guess, lower inflation, lower interest rates, maybe -- and the new origination seems to be in a little bit of a better place. So maybe that accelerates a little bit versus this year and cost of risk coming down. So those should be the drivers, it sounds like?

好的。偉大的。不，這很有幫助，胡安卡洛斯。所以我想，我猜有一些混合趨勢。因此，僅就貸款成長進行澄清。我知道你說過這不會是動態的，但聽起來與你今年給出的指導相比，這可能會加速一點，因為我猜，通貨膨脹可能會降低，利率可能會降低——而且新的起源似乎處於更好的位置。因此，與今年相比，這種情況可能會加速一些，風險成本也會下降。那麼這些應該是驅動程序，聽起來像嗎？

You are completely correct. Tito, that's a good read of the situation. And we are expecting the loan book to accelerate its growth and I mean, not been very dynamic, meaning that it will be better than the loan growth that we have in this year 2023.

你是完全正確的。蒂托，這對情勢有很好的解讀。我們預計貸款帳簿將加速成長，我的意思是，成長不是非常活躍，這意味著它將比我們 2023 年的貸款成長更好。

Our next question comes from Yuri Fernandes of JPMorgan.

我們的下一個問題來自摩根大通的尤里·費爾南德斯。

I have a follow-up on top line and also for 2024. I would like to start with your margin sensitivity for rates because I totally agree, right? Rates remain high. You had like some lower security gains this quarter. So maybe for 2023, we will continue to see a very sound top line, but my concern here is the NIM (inaudible), right? Because although rates will remain higher than historical in 2024, you are forecasting about 400, 500 bps, right, going from 13.25% today, to maybe 8. 5%, I think this is what you have in our presentation.

我對頂線和 2024 年都有後續行動。我想從您對利率的保證金敏感性開始，因為我完全同意，對嗎？利率仍然很高。您希望本季的安全收益有所下降。因此，也許到 2023 年，我們將繼續看到非常穩健的營收，但我擔心的是 NIM（聽不清楚），對吧？因為儘管 2024 年利率仍將高於歷史水平，但您預測約為 400、500 個基點，對吧，從今天的 13.25% 到可能 8. 5%，我認為這就是我們演示中的內容。

So my question is, what is our rate sensitivity on every 100 bps a decrease on rates? And how quickly this translates into your margins because if the average rates go down by 200, 250, maybe we are talking here based on past quarters, like 60, 70 bps rate, an average was 30 bps to 35 bps over 100 [years] to say. So again, just checking, NIM sensitivity and how quickly this will hurt your margins in 2024.

所以我的問題是，我們對利率每下降 100 個基點的利率敏感度是多少？這會以多快的速度轉化為你的利潤，因為如果平均利率下降 200、250，也許我們在這裡談論的是基於過去的季度，例如 60、70 基點利率，100 年平均利率為 30 至 35 基點說。再次強調一下，只需檢查 NIM 敏感性以及這將在 2024 年以多快的速度損害您的利潤。

Thank you, Yuri. Let me give you some general comments, and I will ask Laura to give us more color about how we are seeing the development of the reference rates, but we are gathering information every week and every month with the new data that is coming in. So Laura will give us some color regarding how we see the path of the rates, the reference rates. And I'm going to ask Humberto about the sensitivity.

謝謝你，尤里。讓我給你一些一般性評論，我會請勞拉給我們更多關於我們如何看待參考利率的發展的信息，但我們每周和每月都會收集新數據的信息。所以勞拉（Laura）將為我們提供一些關於我們如何看待利率路徑、參考利率的資訊。我要問溫貝托關於敏感性的問題。

But my general comments are as follows. You mentioned -- we need to analyze the margin. And if we take a this quarter as a base. The loan book margin remains stable high, 7.9%. What we had this quarter was a negative effect on the investment margin, mainly due to some particular issues regarding FX. As you know, the peso appreciated during this quarter significantly. So we need to -- or we -- with that consideration, we took our positions on U.S. dollars, and we will reorganize them. So that's an effect that was during the quarter.

但我的一般評論如下。你提到——我們需要分析利潤。如果我們以本季為基礎。貸款帳面利潤率維持穩定的高位，為7.9%。本季我們的投資利潤率受到了負面影響，這主要是由於一些有關外匯的特殊問題。如您所知，比索在本季大幅升值。因此，我們需要——或者說我們——考慮到這一點，我們對美元採取了立場，並且我們將對其進行重組。這就是本季的影響。

But for the long term or if we look the average for the investment margin, we still believe that it's going to be between 1% and 1.5%. The loan book -- the margin on loans will have some pressure probably and from the cost side and because of the rates will start to decline by the end of the year, as Laura will tell us later.

但從長期來看，或者如果我們看平均投資利潤率，我們仍然認為它將在 1% 到 1.5% 之間。貸款帳目—貸款保證金可能會受到一些來自成本方面的壓力，因為利率將在年底開始下降，正如勞拉稍後告訴我們的那樣。

So we expect the loan margin to be around 7.7%. As for 2024, it will be some pressure, but still the margin will be high and the average for the year should be around 6.7% -- I'm talking about the loan margin. So that's a healthy margin that give us room to maneuver. The other key aspects for 2024 will be the cost of risk. And how the loan book performs as I commented before to the Tito's question.

因此我們預計貸款利率在7.7%左右。至於2024年，會有一些壓力，但利潤率仍然會很高，全年平均應該在6.7%左右——我說的是貸款利潤率。因此，這是一個健康的利潤空間，為我們提供了迴旋餘地。 2024 年的其他關鍵方面將是風險成本。正如我之前對鐵托問題的評論，貸款簿的表現如何。

So with this, I'm going to give -- to pass to Laura that tell us how we see the path of the reference rates in Colombia. Laura?

因此，我將把這項訊息轉給勞拉，告訴我們如何看待哥倫比亞的參考利率路徑。勞拉？

Thank you, Juan Carlos. Indeed, the outlook for interest rates -- Central Bank interest rates will be very dependent on what we've been seeing for inflation in the past few months. We've had 4 consecutive months of declining inflation. The latest figure was not so positive on the core inflation, nevertheless, coming down as well. So we've been -- inflation has been driven mainly by receding food prices. And we do see some potential pressures for core inflation coming from fuel prices, some regulated goods such as housing tariffs and other types of public service tariffs. So we do have a 9% inflation forecast for 2023.

謝謝你，胡安卡洛斯。事實上，利率前景—央行利率將在很大程度上取決於過去幾個月我們所看到的通膨情況。通膨已連續 4 個月下降。不過，最新數據對核心通膨的影響並不樂觀，但也有所下降。所以我們一直認為，通貨膨脹主要是由食品價格下跌所推動的。我們確實看到核心通膨的一些潛在壓力來自燃料價格、住房關稅和其他類型的公共服務關稅等一些受監管的商品。因此，我們確實對 2023 年通膨率做出了 9% 的預測。

Perhaps with an upside risk given the potential pressure that I'm mentioning, also climate risk coming from phenomenal (inaudible). But in all, inflation is, in fact, receding. And at least from the point of view of the Central Bank, this is being well received and closely monitored. And in that sense, we foresee the possibility of having Central Bank rate cuts before year-end, we're anticipating a first 25 basis point reduction somewhere between -- somewhere in the last quarter of this year. And again, very dependent on what happens with inflation and how economic activity continues in our market, but we are seeing that possibility towards the end of the year.

考慮到我提到的潛在壓力，也許有上行風險，氣候風險也來自現象級（聽不清楚）。但總的來說，通貨膨脹實際上正在消退。至少從央行的角度來看，這受到了好評並受到密切監控。從這個意義上說，我們預計央行有可能在年底前降息，我們預計首次降息 25 個基點將在今年最後一個季度的某個時間。再說一次，這很大程度上取決於通貨膨脹的情況以及我們市場上經濟活動的持續情況，但我們在年底看到了這種可能性。

And in line with what I'm mentioning from inflation pressures, nonetheless, we see that interest rate cuts will be gradual and very driven by what happens with inflation and how it continues to come down. We're still very far away from the Central Bank target. So in that sense, for at least 2024 as well, we see gradual rate cuts in that sense from the Central Bank.

儘管如此，根據我在通膨壓力方面提到的內容，我們認為降息將是漸進的，並且很大程度上受到通膨情況及其持續下降的推動。我們離央行的目標還很遠。因此，從這個意義上說，至少在 2024 年，我們看到央行將逐步降息。

Thank you, Laura. And now Jose regarding sensitivity that Yuri asked.

謝謝你，勞拉。現在何塞談到尤里問的敏感度。

Okay. Yuri, regarding your question, how quickly the margins will compress, we will be able to manage the reduction of interest rates next year because of 3 factors. The first one is we, today, in our time deposits more than 60% of that term deposits will -- there are less than a year, which means that the repricing of those time deposits will be faster. The second element is, we still have a very good composition of funding in terms of saving accounts that will be today 38% and roughly, we are going to maintain the same mix and the checking accounts. So because of these 3 factors, the compression of the NIM next year will be less than or at around 50 basis points and our sensitivities for every 100 basis points, our NIM will change 30 basis points.

好的。 Yuri，關於你的問題，利潤率將以多快的速度壓縮，我們明年將能夠透過三個因素來應對利率的降低。第一個是，今天我們的定期存款中，超過 60% 的定期存款期限不到一年，這意味著這些定期存款的重新定價將會更快。第二個要素是，就儲蓄帳戶而言，我們仍然擁有非常好的資金組成，今天將達到 38%，大致上，我們將保持相同的組合和支票帳戶。因此，由於這三個因素，明年淨利差的壓縮將小於或約為 50 個基點，而我們的敏感度每 100 個基點，我們的淨利差將改變 30 個基點。

Our next question comes from Carlos Gomez of HSBC.

我們的下一個問題來自匯豐銀行的卡洛斯‧戈麥斯。

I have 2 questions. The first one is on capital. If you can reiterate, I believe your target to be at 11% by the end of the year. And I have to -- I guess 2 further questions around there. First, is that 11% enough, you mentioned a much more uncertain scenario, a slower economy. Would you feel more comfortable operating with a higher level of capital?

我有 2 個問題。第一個是資本。如果您能重申一下，我相信您的目標是在今年年底達到 11%。我必須──我想還有兩個問題。首先，11% 是否足夠，您提到了一種更不確定的情況，即經濟放緩。您是否會覺得使用更高水準的資本進行營運會更自在？

Second, when I look at the chart of your capital adequacy, you have a comfortable position in Tier 1, almost 600 basis points above the minimum, but you're only less than 1% above total capital. So it would seem like you need more Tier 2. Is that true? And how do you intend to address it?

其次，當我查看你們的資本充足率圖表時，你們在一級資本充足率方面處於舒適的位置，比最低水平高出近 600 個基點，但僅比總資本高出不到 1%。所以看起來您需要更多的第 2 層。這是真的嗎？您打算如何解決這個問題？

Thank you, Carlos. For your question regarding , we feel comfortable around 11% core equity Tier 1. The answer is yes, with 11% we feel that we can manage the risks that we are facing. So at 11% -- and I think it's very, very achievable for this year that 11%, where we feel comfortable. Regarding your second question about the adequacy on total capital, around 12.5% and just been 1.5% above the core equity Tier 1. We feel comfortable. We always are looking for opportunities to manage capital but with that 12.5% with 11% core equity Tier 1. And with the perspective that we have regarding loan book growth and the risk, we feel comfortable on those levels. I don't know how Jose Humberto, you have additional comments on this regard.

謝謝你，卡洛斯。對於您關於 的問題，我們對 11% 的一級核心股權感到滿意。答案是肯定的，11% 的核心股權我們認為我們可以管理我們面臨的風險。因此，在 11% 的水平上——我認為今年這個 11% 是非常非常可以實現的，我們對此感到滿意。關於你的第二個問題，總資本充足率約為12.5%，僅比一級核心股本高出1.5%。我們對此感到滿意。我們一直在尋找管理資本的機會，但 12.5% 的資本佔 11% 的一級核心股權。從我們對貸款帳面成長和風險的角度來看，我們對這些水準感到滿意。我不知道何塞·溫貝托（Jose Humberto）對此有何補充意見。

Yes, I want to compliment that the fact, Carlos that we are having 11% Tier 1, but also we are having a very strong coverage ratio of 90-day past due loans that give us some protection. If you double check the numbers, we are above the line of 200 basis points of coverage of 90-day past due loans, which help us to maintain a very solid Tier 1 ratio as well.

是的，我想稱讚卡洛斯，我們擁有 11% 的一級貸款，而且我們擁有非常高的 90 天逾期貸款覆蓋率，這為我們提供了一些保護。如果您仔細檢查這些數字，我們的 90 天逾期貸款覆蓋範圍高於 200 個基點，這也有助於我們保持非常穩定的一級比率。

Okay. No, but I guess the Tier 1, I mean, in your chart, you only have 200 basis points and it is a total adequacy, which is -- I mean, again, in fact, if I read correctly, the minimum is 11.5%, we are at 12.45%. I mean it doesn't look like a lot more. Again, one would think that perhaps you want to have more Tier 2 in the future or perhaps it is too expensive to have it now.

好的。不，但我想一級，我的意思是，在你的圖表中，你只有200 個基點，這是完全充足的，也就是說——我的意思是，事實上，如果我沒看錯的話，最小值是11.5 %，我們是 12.45%。我的意思是它看起來並不多。同樣，人們可能會認為，也許您希望將來擁有更多的 Tier 2，或者現在擁有它的成本太高。

Yes, Carlos. Obviously, all depends of loan growth, and we are expecting the loan growth next year 2024, 1 single digit. But again, we have an opportunity to touch the market with a Tier 2 structure for sure next year or in the next coming years. We have availability to do that.

是的，卡洛斯。顯然，一切都取決於貸款成長，我們預計明年 2024 年貸款將成長為 1 個位數。但同樣，明年或未來幾年我們肯定有機會透過二級結構進入市場。我們有能力做到這一點。

Okay. And one final comment, if I can abuse you a little bit more. Again, given the situation on capital, this year, you paid 50% of earnings of the previous year. it seems like things are a bit tighter going into next year? Where do you think your dividend may come out on the 2023 earnings?

好的。最後還有一點，如果我可以再罵你一點的話。還是那句話，考慮到資金狀況，今年你支付了上一年收益的50%。明年的事情似乎有點緊張？您認為 2023 年收益中您的股息可能會反映在哪裡？

Carlos, you know that dividend is depending on the amount of capital that we want to grab next year assuming loan growth and assuming macro conditions. So we will have today a clear picture about what is going to be the dividend policy, but we are going to do the calculations to maintain the 11%, but based on the conditions that we presented for 2024.

卡洛斯，你知道，股息取決於我們明年想要獲得的資本數額，假設貸款增長並假設宏觀條件。因此，今天我們將清楚了解股息政策，但我們將根據我們為 2024 年提出的條件進行計算以維持 11%。

Our next question comes from Juan Recalde of Scotiabank.

我們的下一個問題來自豐業銀行的胡安·雷卡爾德。

My questions are related to the digital initiatives Nequi and Bancolombia a la Mano. We've seen increasing engagement in terms of number of transactions by clients and deposit growth. However, the loans are shrinking in both Nequi and Bancolombia a la Mano. So I was wondering first, if this is a result of competition, lower demand or a decision from yourselves, coming from yourselves? And two, if you can provide us any color in terms of the asset quality trends of the loans originated at Nequi and Bancolombia a la Mano?

我的問題與 Nequi 和 Bancolombia a la Mano 數位計劃有關。我們看到客戶交易數量和存款成長的參與度不斷增加。然而，內基銀行和拉馬諾銀行的貸款都在萎縮。所以我先想知道，這是競爭的結果，是需求下降的結果，還是你們自己的決定，你們自己的決定？第二，您能否向我們提供有關源自 Nequi 和 Bancolombia a la Mano 的貸款的資產品質趨勢的任何資訊？

Thank you, Juan. As you mentioned, the dynamic of Nequi and Bancolombia a la Mano, it's very positive. I mean we keep growing in the number of clients in the number of transactions, usage from our customers, it's growing. In Nequi, close to 70% of our users are active users and the number of transactions is growing. And same thing in Bancolombia and Bancolombia a la Mano.

謝謝你，胡安。正如您所提到的，Nequi 和 Bancolombia a la Mano 的動態非常積極。我的意思是，我們的客戶數量、交易數量、客戶使用量都在不斷增加。在 Nequi，我們接近 70% 的用戶是活躍用戶，且交易數量正在增加。 Bancolombia 和 Bancolombia a la Mano 也是如此。

Regarding your point of the loan book on those digital banks, and to your question, it was our decision to slow down the new originations. Those 2 initiatives are focused mainly on middle to low-income individuals and we are providing them a banking solution according to their needs. But what we are doing is learning more from them in the sense that we need to originate loans that are in the range of our risk appetite. That's why we are not growing as fast as we were growing before.

關於您對這些數位銀行貸款簿的觀點以及您的問題，我們決定放慢新的發放速度。這兩項措施主要針對中低收入者，我們根據他們的需求為他們提供銀行解決方案。但我們正在做的是向他們學習更多，因為我們需要發放在我們風險偏好範圍內的貸款。這就是為什麼我們的成長速度沒有以前那麼快了。

Asset quality in those 2 platforms was a little above what we were expecting. That's why we decided to take a break and originate differently. Those are, as I mentioned, groups that are new to the banking system mainly. So we need to be careful in how we originate, our digital process are sometimes new for them and how to manage those interactions with these platforms need time.

這兩個平台的資產品質略高於我們的預期。這就是為什麼我們決定休息一下並以不同的方式出發。正如我所提到的，這些群體主要是銀行體系的新手。因此，我們需要謹慎對待我們的起源，我們的數位流程有時對他們來說是新的，如何管理與這些平台的互動需要時間。

This to say that we will continue advancing in new ways and with the information that we are gathering from the transactions that they are doing in the platforms to continue growing. Our path to monetization to profitability, definitely pass for the loan book, and we are expecting for the second quarter start originating in a different way with different models. We now have a new calibrated scoring model that we are going to use to originate during the second quarter. But also we need to have in consideration the economic situation that is tougher now than it was in the past at the beginning of the year or last year when we started originating in this platform.

這就是說，我們將繼續以新的方式前進，並利用我們從他們在平台上進行的交易中收集的資訊來繼續成長。我們的貨幣化和獲利之路肯定會透過貸款簿，我們預計第二季會以不同的方式和不同的模式開始。我們現在有了一個新的校準評分模型，我們將在第二季使用該模型。但我們也需要考慮到現在的經濟狀況比年初或去年我們開始在這個平台上起步時更加困難。

So we -- to summarize. We slowed down the origination. We calibrate the models. We gather new information. We will start -- restart with a new strategy, originating loans. We will be monitoring how they are going to behave and then depending on that behavior and the economic condition, we will accelerate further the next year on.

所以我們——總結一下。我們放慢了起源。我們校準模型。我們收集新資訊。我們將開始—以新的策略重新啟動，發放貸款。我們將監控他們的行為方式，然後根據行為和經濟狀況，我們將在明年進一步加速。

Our next question comes from Andres Soto of Santander.

我們的下一個問題來自桑坦德銀行的安德烈斯·索托。

Juan Carlos, I would like you to help us understand a little bit about your Pillars number 3 and number 4, regarding your new strategy, what exactly you think you can do in terms of corporate structure or efficiency and how investors can expect that being reflected in the long-term results for Bancolombia?

胡安·卡洛斯，我希望你能幫助我們了解你的第三支柱和第四支柱，關於你的新策略，你認為你在公司結構或效率方面到底能做什麼，以及投資者如何期望這一點得到反映哥倫比亞銀行的長期業績如何？

Thank you, Andres. As I mentioned, we have 4 Pillars. And we have the purpose to promote sustainable development to achieve everyone's wellbeing. And you mentioned the 3rd and the 4th Pillar. We are -- we have a very strong corporate structure and governance we have been working on that corporate governance for a long time. So as you know, and we have mentioned this during this call but also in the past, we are very focused on profitability. So that corporate structure, meaning our presence in the different countries in which we operate, how are we organized. But the corporate governance that we have, our focus on getting that profitability that we are talking about on an environment of risk control.

謝謝你，安德烈斯。正如我所提到的，我們有 4 個支柱。我們的目標是促進永續發展，以實現每個人的福祉。你提到了第三和第四支柱。我們擁有非常強大的公司結構和治理，我們長期以來一直致力於公司治理。如您所知，我們在這次電話會議中以及過去都提到過這一點，我們非常關注盈利能力。因此，公司結構意味著我們在開展業務的不同國家中存在，我們是如何組織的。但是我們擁有的公司治理，我們專注於在風險控制環境下獲得我們正在談論的獲利能力。

Regarding the Pillar 4, we are very clear that efficiency and productivity are key at the beginning Tito and Yuri, were asking about 2024. And we have very clear that one of the key aspects, on top of the others that I mentioned, it's how we manage the efficiency and the productivity of the bank. And we have had some pressures from the -- from inflation, from some competition issues that we need to tackle. But we have clear that, that focus on efficiency is key during 2024. And we will be a part of how we achieve the results that we were talking before, Andres.

關於第四支柱，我們非常清楚，鐵托和尤里一開始就詢問 2024 年時，效率和生產力是關鍵。我們非常清楚，除了我提到的其他方面之外，關鍵方面之一是如何我們管理銀行的效率和生產力。我們面臨著通貨膨脹和我們需要解決的一些競爭問題的壓力。但我們很清楚，專注於效率是 2024 年的關鍵。安德烈斯，我們將參與如何實現我們之前討論的結果。

If I may follow up, when I look at your efficiency evolution, I see it's the Central American operations, the one that appear significantly above what you have at the consolidated level. What exactly can you do in those operations? It is just a matter of operating leverage and its growth, what is going to drive improved efficiency? Or are there any specific measures that you can implement in order to accelerate the efficiency improvement?

請容許我跟進一下，當我觀察你們的效率演變時，我發現中美洲業務的效率明顯高於你們的綜合水準。在這些操作中你到底能做什麼？這只是營運槓桿及其成長的問題，什麼會推動效率的提升？或者說有什麼具體措施可以實施來加速效率提升？

As you said, we have the ratios in our Central American operations are higher than the one we have in Colombia. Volume is very important to dilute some fixed cost in those operations. So that's key and you mentioned it. But also, we are investing in new technologies that are allowing us to work on that -- on that efficiency. For example, in Banitsmo in Panama, we are investing in a new core bank system that now it's driving expenses high, but will produce results in the future, making us more productive and more efficient. And like that, we are also investing in Salvador and in Guatemala.

正如您所說，我們中美洲業務的比率高於哥倫比亞。數量對於稀釋這些業務中的一些固定成本非常重要。所以這是關鍵，你也提到了。而且，我們正在投資新技術，使我們能夠提高效率。例如，在巴拿馬的巴尼茨莫，我們正在投資一個新的核心銀行系統，目前導致費用高昂，但將來會產生成果，使我們的生產力更高、效率更高。同樣，我們也在薩爾瓦多和瓜地馬拉進行投資。

So it's mainly through volume, but also digitalization and new platforms that we are implementing in the different countries that we will achieve that improvement on the efficiency on the different countries.

因此，我們主要透過數量，以及我們在不同國家實施的數位化和新平台來實現不同國家效率的提高。

But saying this, it's important to take into account that what drives mainly the group efficiency, it's Colombia. You know that around 70% of our operations are in Colombia, 70%, 75%. So the main driver at the end on the consolidated basis of the efficiency of Bancolombia, It's Colombia. Of course, the efficiency of the other operations impact the overall ratio, but Colombia is key on that on that ratio, Andres.

但話雖如此，重要的是要考慮到，推動集團效率的主要因素是哥倫比亞。你知道，我們大約 70% 的業務都在哥倫比亞，70%、75%。因此，最終，在哥倫比亞銀行效率的綜合基礎上，主要驅動力是哥倫比亞。當然，其他業務的效率會影響整體比率，但哥倫比亞是該比率的關鍵，安德烈斯。

Our next question comes from Julian Ausique of Davivienda.

我們的下一個問題來自 Davivienda 的 Julian Ausique。

I would like to ask you, and it's a little bit of a follow-up on the cost of fund, because as we saw in the presentation, we saw an increase in the funding cost in Colombia. And I think it's due to the restriction of liquidity that we are having in the financial sector. I would like you to ask you how are you seeing these pressures in the liquidity in Colombia? And what are your expectations of the -- for the next quarters in the cost of funding and also in the NIM of Colombia?

我想問您，這是對資金成本的一點後續行動，因為正如我們在演示中看到的那樣，我們看到哥倫比亞的資金成本增加。我認為這是由於我們金融部門的流動性受到限制。我想請問您如何看待哥倫比亞的流動性壓力？您對未來幾季的融資成本以及哥倫比亞的 NIM 有何期望？

Thank you, Julian. Bancolombia, it's in a very good position in the Colombian market as we have a franchise that is very well known, we have a branch network, digital channels that allow us to reach many retail customers and also we have access to corporate funding. As you mentioned, there have been some pressure -- some liquidity pressures from Colombia and the Colombian market. What had happened in our case is that we -- some funds were moving from savings accounts and they were moving to CDs, mainly 1 year CDs -- maximum 1 year CDs. So that means that we have to pay so additional interest rates for those fixed deposits.

謝謝你，朱利安。 Bancolombia 在哥倫比亞市場處於非常有利的地位，因為我們擁有眾所周知的特許經營權，我們擁有分支機構網路和數位管道，使我們能夠接觸到許多零售客戶，而且我們還可以獲得企業融資。正如你所提到的，存在一些壓力——來自哥倫比亞和哥倫比亞市場的一些流動性壓力。在我們的案例中發生的情況是，我們——一些資金從儲蓄帳戶轉移，並轉移到定期存款，主要是一年期定期存款——最多一年期定期存款。這意味著我們必須為這些定期存款支付額外的利率。

But I think that Bancolombia in the Colombian market is, as I said, very well positioned in the market. We capture many opportunities regarding the liquidity that is in the market. But those pressures and the levels of the interest rates that we have in the market that we discussed before, also drive the cost of funds increases. With this, I will ask Jose Humberto, if he has any additional comments regarding liquidity, Humberto?

但正如我所說，我認為哥倫比亞銀行在市場上的定位非常有利。我們抓住了許多有關市場流動性的機會。但我們之前討論過的市場壓力和利率水準也會導致資金成本增加。就此，我會問 Jose Humberto，他對於流動性還有什麼其他意見嗎，Humberto？

Julian, let me put it in 2 different ways. The first one is in terms of the bank, as we mentioned previously, we have a strength. And if you check the numbers, 50% of our funding comes from checking and savings accounts, which give us a certain level of comfort in terms of liquidity. And only we have 35% in time deposits. So we are expecting a kind of plateau in terms of cost of funding for time deposits, at least the next 2, 3 months waiting for the strong signal from the Central Bank reducing interest rates.

朱利安，讓我用兩種不同的方式來表達。第一個是銀行方面，正如我們之前提到的，我們有優勢。如果你檢查數字，我們 50% 的資金來自支票和儲蓄帳戶，這讓我們在流動性方面有了一定程度的安慰。而且只有我們有35%的定期存款。因此，我們預期定期存款的融資成本將處於一個平台期，至少在未來2、3個月內等待央行降息的強烈訊號。

Meanwhile, we are not seeing any particular change either going up or going down those cost of risk, which means time deposits. From the general perspective, the industry, obviously, because of the net stable funding ratio, all of us, all the banking industry are colliding with time deposits. In our case, we have the strength that we have a different source of funding and not only time deposits. So again, as we mentioned previously, we are expecting to sustain the NIM at least for these next 2 quarters. And next year, we are obviously expecting a compression of the NIM because of change of interest rates of Central Bank.

同時，我們沒有看到任何特定的變化，無論是上升還是下降風險成本，這意味著定期存款。從整個產業來看，很明顯，因為淨額穩定的資金比例，我們所有的銀行業都在和定期存款發生衝突。就我們而言，我們的優勢在於我們擁有不同的資金來源，而不僅僅是定期存款。因此，正如我們之前提到的，我們預計至少在接下來的兩個季度維持淨利差。明年，我們顯然預期淨利差將因央行利率的變化而壓縮。

This concludes question-and-answer session. I would like now to hand the conference back over to Mr. Juan Carlos Mora, for any closing remarks.

問答環節到此結束。現在我想將會議交還給胡安·卡洛斯·莫拉先生做閉幕詞。

Thank you, everybody, for participating in this third (sic) [second] quarter results conference call. As we discussed during the call, the environment has some challenges, but we are confident that in Bancolombia, we are very well prepared to tackle or to manage those challenges that we are facing. For the second semester of the year, we will see a dynamic that will continue in the trend that we are seeing. But we think that in terms of how we will manage them will lead us to achieve those targets that we mentioned during this call.

感謝大家參加第三（原文如此）[第二]季度業績電話會議。正如我們在電話會議中討論的那樣，環境面臨一些挑戰，但我們相信，在哥倫比亞銀行，我們已做好充分準備來應對或管理我們面臨的這些挑戰。今年第二學期，我們將看到一種動態，這種動態將繼續我們所看到的趨勢。但我們認為，就如何管理它們而言，我們將實現我們在這次電話會議中提到的那些目標。

So with this, I conclude this conference call, and I hope to see you on our third quarter results. Have a good day, and thank you very much.

我的電話會議到此結束，希望大家能夠了解我們第三季的表現。祝你有美好的一天，非常感謝。

This concludes today's conference. Thank you for participating. You may now disconnect.

今天的會議到此結束。感謝您的參與。您現在可以斷開連線。