Grupo Cibest SA (CIB) 2022 Q4 法說會逐字稿

Good morning, ladies and gentlemen. Welcome to Bancolombia's Fourth Quarter 2022 Earnings Conference Call. My name is Sachi, and I will be your operator for today's call. (Operator Instructions) Please note that this conference is being recorded.

早上好，女士們，先生們。歡迎來到 Bancolombia 2022 年第四季度收益電話會議。我叫 Sachi，我將是您今天電話的接線員。 （操作員說明）請注意，正在錄製此會議。

Please note that this conference call will include forward-looking statements, including statements related to our future performance, capital position, credit-related expenses and credit losses. All forward-looking statements, whether made in this conference call, in future filings, in press releases or verbally, address matters that involve risk and uncertainty. Consequently, there are factors that could cause actual results to differ materially from those indicated in such statements, including changes in general economic and business conditions, changes in currency exchange rates and interest rates, introduction of competing products by other companies, lack of acceptance of new products or services by our targeted clients, changes in business strategy and various other factors that we describe in our reports filed with the SEC.

請注意，本次電話會議將包括前瞻性陳述，包括與我們未來業績、資本狀況、信貸相關費用和信貸損失相關的陳述。所有前瞻性陳述，無論是在本次電話會議、未來的文件、新聞稿中還是口頭陳述，都涉及涉及風險和不確定性的事項。因此，有一些因素可能導致實際結果與此類報表中所示的結果存在重大差異，包括一般經濟和商業條件的變化、貨幣匯率和利率的變化、其他公司引入競爭產品、不接受我們的目標客戶的新產品或服務、業務戰略的變化以及我們在向美國證券交易委員會提交的報告中描述的各種其他因素。

With us today is Mr. Juan Carlos Mora, Chief Executive Officer; Mr. Mauricio Rosillo, Chief Corporate Officer; Mr. José Humberto Acosta, Chief Financial Officer; Mrs. Catalina Tobon, Investor Relations and Capital Markets Director; and Mr. Juan Pablo Espinosa, Chief Economist.

今天和我們在一起的是首席執行官 Juan Carlos Mora 先生；首席公司官 Mauricio Rosillo 先生； José Humberto Acosta 先生，首席財務官； Catalina Tobon 女士，投資者關係和資本市場總監；首席經濟學家 Juan Pablo Espinosa 先生。

I will now turn the call over to Mr. Juan Carlos Mora, Chief Executive Officer. Mr. Juan Carlos, you may begin.

我現在將把電話轉給首席執行官胡安卡洛斯莫拉先生。胡安·卡洛斯先生，您可以開始了。

Good morning, and welcome to Bancolombia's Fourth Quarter Results Conference Call. We are very pleased to share with you our results for 2022, a year in which we delivered a strong performance and moved forward in our pursuit for sustainable development in the countries where we operate. Net income was COP 6.8 trillion for the year, attributable to the combined effect of a positive economic background, the spike in interest rates as per a contractionary policy stance on a -- and the good operational performance of the bank.

早上好，歡迎來到 Bancolombia 的第四季度業績電話會議。我們很高興與您分享我們 2022 年的成果，這一年我們表現出色，並在我們開展業務的國家/地區追求可持續發展。全年淨收入為 6.8 萬億比索，這歸因於積極的經濟背景、緊縮政策立場導致的利率飆升以及銀行良好的經營業績。

Due to inflationary pressures, the Central Bank rose to reference rate 900 basis points during the year. Despite this sharp increase, the loan book grew 3.8% quarter-over-quarter and 22.5% for the year. A significant expansion, albeit a slowdown in demand in the fourth quarter. Loan growth during the year was even amongst segments aligned with the overall improvement in economic activity. Meanwhile, deposits grew 5.6% during the quarter and 19.3% year-over-year, reaching an 85% share of the total funding mix as a reflection of the bank's capacity to attract competitive low-cost resources to fulfill its growing funding needs even under more challenging market conditions. As a result, the NIM expanded to 6.8% for the year-end as interest income generation outpaced interest expenses driven by loan growth, higher interest rates and our asset-sensitive condition. This, without any doubt, is 1 of the key competitive advantages of the bank and one of the drivers for ROE expansion last year.

由於通脹壓力，央行年內上調參考利率900個基點。儘管出現了大幅增長，但貸款賬目環比增長了 3.8%，全年增長了 22.5%。顯著擴張，儘管第四季度需求放緩。年內的貸款增長甚至與經濟活動的整體改善保持一致。與此同時，本季度存款增長 5.6%，同比增長 19.3%，佔總融資組合的 85%，這反映出該銀行有能力吸引有競爭力的低成本資源，以滿足其不斷增長的融資需求，即使在更具挑戰性的市場條件。因此，由於貸款增長、利率上升和我們對資產敏感的狀況所推動的利息收入產生超過了利息支出，年底的淨息差擴大至 6.8%。毫無疑問，這是該銀行的主要競爭優勢之一，也是去年 ROE 擴張的驅動力之一。

On the other hand, Provisions for credit losses for the last 12 months were COP 3.7 trillion, equivalent to a cost of risk of 1.6%, an increase of 56% and is basically explained by a loan growth and the low base of comparison versus 2021. Furthermore, provision for credit losses for the quarter were COP 1.7 trillion, equivalent to a cost of risk of 2.6%. This represents an increase of 49% quarter-over-quarter, driven by a combination of loan deterioration during the period, mainly in consumer segment, expected credit losses as the economy slows down and rates remained elevated and consumer-related parameters and less favorable macro inputs.

另一方面，過去 12 個月的信貸損失準備金為 3.7 萬億比索，相當於 1.6% 的風險成本，增長了 56%，這主要是由於貸款增長和與 2021 年相比基數較低所致. 此外，本季度的信貸損失準備金為 1.7 萬億比索，相當於 2.6% 的風險成本。這比上一季度增長了 49%，這是由於在此期間貸款惡化（主要是消費領域）、經濟放緩導致的預期信貸損失和利率仍然居高不下以及與消費者相關的參數和不太有利的宏觀經濟共同推動的輸入。

As per year-end, allowances represents 5.5% of total loans, coverage of 254% for 90 days past due, whilst Basel III core equity Tier 1 ratio stood at 10% and the total capital at 12.5%, well above the minimum regulatory capital.

截至年底，準備金佔貸款總額的 5.5%，逾期 90 天覆蓋率為 254%，而《巴塞爾協議 III》核心一級資本比率為 10%，總資本為 12.5%，遠高於最低監管資本.

Higher income generation and our efforts in cost control initiatives contributed to offset the overall increase in expenses, posting an ROE of 19.8% year-end. However, this favorable macroeconomic conditions globally and locally, coupled with political uncertainty in the countries where we operate, make us more cautious with regards to this year's performance. Factors such as persistent inflation, interest rates and unemployment saw as the potential economic and social impacts arising from government's ambitious reform agenda, may impair economic activity.

更高的收入產生和我們在成本控制措施方面的努力有助於抵消整體支出的增長，年末淨資產收益率為 19.8%。然而，全球和當地有利的宏觀經濟狀況，加上我們經營所在國家的政治不確定性，使我們對今年的業績更加謹慎。持續的通貨膨脹、利率和失業等因素被視為政府雄心勃勃的改革議程產生的潛在經濟和社會影響，可能會損害經濟活動。

For further detail on the macro outlook, I will turn the presentation to Juan Pablo Espinosa, our Chief Economist, Juan Pablo?

有關宏觀前景的更多詳細信息，我將向我們的首席經濟學家胡安·巴勃羅·埃斯皮諾薩 (Juan Pablo Espinosa) 介紹。

Thank you, Juan Carlos. Now please go to Slide #3 in the presentation. Latest data indicate that the moderation in economic activity that we anticipated a few months ago has already begun. GDP for the last quarter of 2022 surprised on the downside with a year-on-year growth rate of 2.8%, so that full year 2022 print was 7.5% lower than our 7.8% estimation. This performance was mainly driven by a slowdown in consumption which had expanded at double digits by 6 consecutive quarters and grew just 2.2% year-on-year in the fourth quarter of 2022. On the other hand, investment was the most dynamic component of demand with a growth rate of 10.3%. But in absolute terms, it is still below pre-COVID levels.

謝謝你，胡安卡洛斯。現在請轉到演示文稿中的幻燈片 #3。最新數據表明，我們幾個月前預期的經濟活動放緩已經開始。 2022 年最後一個季度的 GDP 同比增長率為 2.8%，出人意料地下滑，因此 2022 年全年的印刷量比我們估計的 7.8% 低 7.5%。這一表現主要是由於消費放緩，已連續 6 個季度以兩位數增長，2022 年第四季度同比僅增長 2.2%。另一方面，投資是需求中最具活力的組成部分增長率為10.3%。但就絕對值而言，它仍低於 COVID 之前的水平。

For 2023, we keep our view that the Colombian economy will land to a growth rate close to 1% as internal demand cools off in the context of high inflation and the interest rates, the stringent financial conditions and continued uncertainty. Factors that recover sharply after the pandemic, including retail, manufacturing, construction and services will decelerate more than the rest of the economy. This scenario will lead to a deterioration in the labor market in which average unemployment rate will increase from 11.4% in 2022 to 12.1% in 2023.

對於 2023 年，我們仍然認為，在高通脹和高利率、嚴峻的金融狀況和持續的不確定性的背景下，隨著內部需求降溫，哥倫比亞經濟的增長率將接近 1%。大流行後迅速復甦的因素，包括零售、製造業、建築和服務業，將比其他經濟領域減速更多。這種情況將導致勞動力市場惡化，平均失業率將從 2022 年的 11.4% 上升到 2023 年的 12.1%。

With respect to interest rates and prices, we anticipate that the Central Bank will finish soon the current hiking cycle with a terminal rate of 13.25%. This is consistent with an inflation that will reach its peak this quarter at 14.3% and then will moderate gradually to close the year at 9.3%. Given that this number would be well above (inaudible) target, we foresee that the monetary policy stance will remain contractionary for a long time. Therefore, we forecast that the reference rate by the end of this year will be at 12.5%.

在利率和價格方面，我們預計央行將很快以 13.25% 的最終利率結束當前的加息週期。這與本季度將達到 14.3% 的峰值的通貨膨脹率一致，然後將逐漸放緩，年底將達到 9.3%。鑑於這一數字將遠高於（聽不清）目標，我們預計貨幣政策立場將在很長一段時間內保持緊縮。因此，我們預計今年底參考利率為12.5%。

Regarding the exchange rate, we forecast (inaudible) in 2022. This means that factors supporting Colombian peso weakness, including tight financial conditions, a large current account deficit and uncertainty regarding the reform agenda will remain relevant.

關於匯率，我們預測（聽不清）到 2022 年。這意味著支持哥倫比亞比索疲軟的因素，包括財政狀況緊張、經常賬戶赤字巨大和改革議程的不確定性，將仍然存在。

Moreover, this depreciation would [stir] significant pressure on core inflation. Finally, on the fiscal side, we expect central government deficit to reduce from 5.6% of GDP in 2022 to 4.2% of GDP in 2023, a number that incorporates the additional collection from the latest tax reform as well as higher revenues by the yield sector. Actually, this will allow the government to meet with the fiscal rule targets and at the same time, increase spending as is contemplated by the amendment of the public budget that was submitted to Congress a few days ago.

此外，這種貶值將[激起]對核心通脹的巨大壓力。最後，在財政方面，我們預計中央政府赤字將從 2022 年佔 GDP 的 5.6% 減少到 2023 年佔 GDP 的 4.2%，這一數字包括最新稅制改革帶來的額外稅收以及收益部門的更高收入.實際上，這將使政府能夠實現財政規則目標，同時增加支出，正如幾天前提交給國會的公共預算修正案所設想的那樣。

After this economic overview, let me turn the presentation back to Juan Carlos. Juan?

在這個經濟概覽之後，讓我把演講轉回給胡安·卡洛斯。娟？

Thank you, Juan Pablo. Moving to Slide 4, I would like to highlight 3 key elements that have contributed significantly to our positive performance. In the first place, an extraordinary growth in clients. We have seen a consistent uptrend in the last years in all segments. And in 2022, we reached more than 29 million clients. We deem this progress as a result of a well-articulated strategy in channels, products and investments in technology that has become a competitive advantage leverage on the bank's networks footprint and product offer.

謝謝你，胡安·巴勃羅。轉到幻燈片 4，我想強調對我們的積極表現做出重大貢獻的 3 個關鍵要素。首先，客戶的非凡增長。過去幾年，我們在所有細分市場都看到了持續的上升趨勢。到 2022 年，我們的客戶數量超過 2900 萬。我們認為這一進展是由於在渠道、產品和技術投資方面製定了明確的戰略，這些戰略已成為銀行網絡足跡和產品供應的競爭優勢槓桿。

NEQUI, Bancolombia a la Mano and banking agents are just a few good examples of this broad strategy. As you may see in the slide, in the case of Colombia, we have compounding annual growth rate for the last 4 years of around 9% in retail and SMEs and around 5% in corporates. Nowadays, we are adding around 300,000 new clients per month. This significant growth in terms of new clients has been a catalyst for further growth in deposits and asset origination as we will discuss in the following slides.

NEQUI、Bancolombia a la Mano 和銀行代理只是這一廣泛戰略的幾個很好的例子。正如您在幻燈片中看到的那樣，就哥倫比亞而言，過去 4 年的複合年增長率在零售和中小企業中約為 9%，在企業中約為 5%。如今，我們每月新增約 300,000 名新客戶。正如我們將在下面的幻燈片中討論的那樣，新客戶的顯著增長一直是存款和資產來源進一步增長的催化劑。

Moving to Slide #5. You see the strong growth in terms of loans and deposits on a group level, posting a 22.5% for loans and 19.3% for deposits for the year. Peso-denominated loans grew 18%, whilst U.S. dollar-denominated loans grew 8%. Nominal growth net of FX was 15% for loans and 11% for deposits. Such difference is explained by the sharp peso depreciation amounting to 20.8% during the year.

轉到幻燈片 #5。你可以看到集團層面的貸款和存款增長強勁，全年貸款增長 22.5%，存款增長 19.3%。以比索計價的貸款增長了 18%，而以美元計價的貸款增長了 8%。貸款和存款的名義淨增長淨額分別為 15% 和 11%。造成這種差異的原因是比索在年內大幅貶值 20.8%。

There was uneven growth among segments during the year. In the case of commercial loans, we must highlight the growth in corporate loans, which benefits the overall portfolio quality as it entails lower credit risk.

年內各板塊增長不平衡。就商業貸款而言，我們必須強調企業貸款的增長，這有利於整體投資組合質量，因為它會降低信用風險。

In the case of consumer loans, annual growth was driven by personal loans However, in the fourth quarter, this segment grew less than in previous quarters, consistent with higher interest rates. The current 24% share of consumer loans as the total loan portfolio is the result of a deliberate strategy implemented in 2014 to capture high risk-adjusted returns that contribute to broader income generation as we will discuss later.

就消費貸款而言，年度增長是由個人貸款推動的。但是，在第四季度，該部分的增長低於前幾個季度，這與較高的利率一致。目前消費貸款佔總貸款組合的 24% 是 2014 年實施的一項深思熟慮的戰略的結果，該戰略旨在獲取高風險調整回報，這有助於更廣泛的創收，我們將在後面討論。

Regarding deposits, the growth in time deposits stands out with 46.5% increase for the year with a twofold drivers. Large funding needs to meet loan growth, coupled with clients' preferences for this type of instruments given the higher rate environment. Savings accounts also grew, albeit modestly, up 11.3% and reflecting the bank's strength to attract low-cost funding as we refer to previously.

存款方面，定期存款的增長最為突出，全年增長 46.5%，受雙重驅動。需要大量資金來滿足貸款增長，以及在利率較高的環境下客戶對此類工具的偏好。儲蓄賬戶也增長了 11.3%，儘管增幅不大，這反映了銀行吸引低成本資金的實力，正如我們之前提到的那樣。

On Slide 6, I will elaborate on the second key element consisting on the preapproved and automated loan strategy that has been another of the catalyst of growth in loans and risk-adjusted returns while it also provides management flexibility to adjust originations according to performance and risk appetite. The strategy started in Colombia in 2014, on the consumer segment. Leverage on the richness of transactional information and investments on data analytics and automation. It has reached interesting effectiveness ratios in terms of disbursements and clients.

在幻燈片 6 中，我將詳細說明第二個關鍵要素，即預先批准的自動化貸款策略，它是貸款增長和風險調整後回報增長的另一個催化劑，同時它還提供了管理靈活性，可以根據績效和風險調整貸款來源食慾。該戰略於 2014 年在哥倫比亞針對消費者領域啟動。利用豐富的交易信息以及對數據分析和自動化的投資。它在支出和客戶方面達到了有趣的效率比率。

More recently, it was extended to SMEs, corporates and subsidiaries in Central America as it certainly provides value as to preserving asset quality with enriched and more precise risk model based on transactional flows data.

最近，它擴展到中美洲的中小企業、公司和子公司，因為它確實提供了價值，可以通過基於交易流量數據的豐富和更精確的風險模型來保持資產質量。

Moving on to Slide #7. I will touch upon the third and last key element to highlight for this period, which is the evolution and leadership in terms of digitalization. This result is leveraged as well on the channel, product and technology strategy that we already referred and allows the bank to adjust to our clients' needs and preferences for an enhanced experience.

轉到幻燈片#7。我將談到這一時期要強調的第三個也是最後一個關鍵要素，即數字化方面的演變和領導力。我們已經提到的渠道、產品和技術戰略也利用了這一結果，使銀行能夠根據客戶的需求和偏好進行調整，以增強體驗。

Bancolombia currently process around 71% of the market's digital transaction and around 43% of online transactions and the growth in customers, volume transactions and activity per user has been exponential. As an example, NEQUI today has more than 1.4 million active users per day, close to 10 million active users per month and 1.3 million of card users. These in addition to being a driver for growth and efficiency is also a tool for financial inclusion. The total number of NEQUI user represents 29% of the total of the Colombian population and out of this 1.7 million are NEQUI exclusive, meaning they do not use other entities.

Bancolombia 目前處理約 71% 的市場數字交易和約 43% 的在線交易，並且客戶、交易量和每個用戶的活動呈指數級增長。舉個例子，今天NEQUI的日活躍用戶超過140萬，月活躍用戶接近1000萬，卡用戶達到130萬。這些除了是增長和效率的驅動力外，還是金融包容性的工具。 NEQUI 用戶總數佔哥倫比亞總人口的 29%，其中 170 萬是 NEQUI 專用用戶，這意味著他們不使用其他實體。

In Slide 8, you can see how digital channels reshaped the transactional space in terms of volume and amount and exhibit an upward trend in terms of digital adoption, reaching more than 77%. This in turn has increased digital sales, certainly boosted by the pandemic. It is important to highlight as well that in Colombia, cash is still important and close to 37% of transactions on a value basis are still processed through physical channels for which the bank has an important advantage given its network and complementary with other cost-efficient channels as banking agencies. This interoperability has been certainly one of the drivers of making transactional success as user can easily cash out through the physical channels.

在幻燈片 8 中，您可以看到數字渠道如何在數量和金額方面重塑交易空間，並在數字採用方面呈現上升趨勢，達到 77% 以上。這反過來又增加了數字銷售，當然是受到大流行的推動。同樣重要的是要強調，在哥倫比亞，現金仍然很重要，按價值計算，近 37% 的交易仍通過實體渠道處理，銀行憑藉其網絡以及與其他具有成本效益的方式互補，在實體渠道中具有重要優勢渠道作為銀行機構。這種互操作性無疑是交易成功的驅動因素之一，因為用戶可以輕鬆地通過實體渠道兌現。

Going forward, we will keep investing in digital transformation for our customers' convenience and further efficiency.

展望未來，我們將繼續投資於數字化轉型，以方便客戶並提高效率。

And last, on Slide #9, I want to refer to progress on our ESG strategy in which we continue delivering on our goal of reaching COP 103 trillion of sustainable loans originated in the last 3 years related to agribusiness, SMEs, housing, climate change and financial inclusion amongst others.

最後，在幻燈片 #9 中，我想提及我們 ESG 戰略的進展，在該戰略中，我們繼續實現我們的目標，即在過去 3 年中發放與農業綜合企業、中小企業、住房、氣候變化相關的 103 萬億 COP 可持續貸款和金融包容性等。

We also launched the first sustainable derivative in local market, providing rate coverage to companies that comply with sustainable indicators. And last, I want to highlight the most recent Dow Jones Sustainability Index assessment in which Bancolombia was ranked as part of the best 5% banks in the world at the global ESG score, the only Colombian bank within the top 5%, standing out in dimensions such as sustainability, finance, labor practices and climate change strategy. We celebrate this achievement and stand to our commitment to deliver on our purpose.

我們還在本地市場推出首個可持續衍生品，為符合可持續指標的公司提供利率覆蓋。最後，我想強調一下最近的道瓊斯可持續發展指數評估，其中 Bancolombia 在全球 ESG 評分中被評為全球最佳 5% 的銀行，是唯一一家進入前 5% 的哥倫比亞銀行，在可持續性、金融、勞工實踐和氣候變化戰略等方面。我們慶祝這一成就，並堅持我們的承諾，以實現我們的目標。

After this general business update, I want to turn now the presentation to José Acosta who will further elaborate on our fourth quarter and '22 year-end results. Jose?

在這次一般業務更新之後，我現在想把演講交給何塞·阿科斯塔，他將進一步闡述我們的第四季度和 22 年末的業績。何塞？

Thank you, Juan Carlos. In Slide 10, you can see an overview of Colombia and Central America's operations. In 2022, Central America represented 29% of the total loan portfolio, increasing due to FX. These graphs reflects how all the banks had similar trends in the last years, contributing to the overall group performance in terms of growth and pickup margins post COVID where Colombia standout due to a higher growth rates, market rates and its asset-sensitive condition.

謝謝你，胡安卡洛斯。在幻燈片 10 中，您可以看到哥倫比亞和中美洲業務的概覽。 2022 年，中美洲佔貸款組合總額的 29%，由於外匯影響而增加。這些圖表反映了過去幾年所有銀行的趨勢相似，在 COVID 後的增長和回升利潤率方面對整體集團業績做出了貢獻，其中哥倫比亞由於較高的增長率、市場利率和資產敏感狀況而脫穎而出。

Second, asset quality all posting ample 90 days coverage; and third, progress in efficiency with falling cost-to-income ratios. It's worth to highlight Banco Agricola and Bank of Mercantil, positive performance as source of growth and profitability, Banistmo with potential to further capture efficiency.

二是資產質量全覆蓋90天充裕；三是效率提升，成本收入比下降。值得強調的是 Banco Agricola 和 Bank of Mercantil，積極的業績是增長和盈利的源泉，Banistmo 具有進一步提高效率的潛力。

Now moving to Slide 11. You can see how liquidity encompassed loan growth during the year, closing at a loan-to-deposit ratio above 101%. During the fourth quarter, time deposits grew the most, reaching 30% in net deposit mix, just above pre-COVID levels. This growth was mainly driven by the net stable funding ratio requirements and having a larger demand as clients seek for higher returns.

現在轉到幻燈片 11。您可以看到年內流動性如何包含貸款增長，收盤時貸存比高於 101%。第四季度，定期存款增長最快，占淨存款組合的 30%，略高於 COVID 之前的水平。這一增長主要是由淨穩定資金比率要求和客戶尋求更高回報的更大需求推動的。

Despite savings accounts ceded to time deposits in the mix, its share is significantly higher compared to pre-COVID levels, reflecting the bank's strength to attract flows and keep deposits, all of which accounted for 85% for the year-end 2022. It is worth highlighting as well the capacity that Bancolombia and Banistmo had to access credit loans to pay for the respective bonds maturity for a total amount of $1.5 billion in a moment in which capital markets were closed. This explains why there is a shift between long-term debt and loans with banks with the funding mix, which, by the way, contributed to reduce interest expenses.

儘管儲蓄賬戶在組合中被轉為定期存款，但其份額明顯高於 COVID 之前的水平，反映出該銀行吸引流量和保留存款的實力，到 2022 年年底，所有這些都佔 85%。值得強調的是，在資本市場關閉的那一刻，Bancolombia 和 Banistmo 必須獲得信用貸款以支付總額為 15 億美元的各自債券到期的能力。這解釋了為什麼銀行的長期債務和貸款之間存在資金組合的轉變，順便說一句，這有助於減少利息支出。

Also important was the issuance of the first sustainable leasing bond for a [net] financial institution in the region. Fully subscribed by the IDB and L.A. Green under a private placement with the competitive terms and conditions.

同樣重要的是為該地區的[淨]金融機構發行了第一個可持續租賃債券。 IDB 和 L.A. Green 在具有競爭性條款和條件的私募下全額認購。

Moving into Slide 12. We will talk you through NII and NIM performance. In the upper part, you will find Colombian NIM's evolution correlated to the market rates. During 2022, the reference rate increased 900 basis points, closing at a level of 12%. The steepest curve displayed at the NIM since the third quarter of 2021 reflects the bank's capability to capture a higher margin even as interest expenses goes up.

轉到幻燈片 12。我們將通過 NII 和 NIM 性能向您介紹。在上半部分，您會發現哥倫比亞 NIM 的演變與市場利率相關。 2022 年期間，參考利率上升 900 個基點，收於 12% 的水平。 NIM 顯示的自 2021 年第三季度以來最陡峭的曲線反映了該銀行即使在利息支出上升的情況下也有能力獲得更高的利潤率。

This is explained by its asset-sensitive condition given that 66% of the loan portfolio is floating, whereas 38% of deposits are floating. Also, it's worth highlighting that 55% of term-deposits mature in less than 1 year, providing some margin protection when rates are going down. This structure certainly represents a competitive advantage as it allows the bank to capture higher margins when rates are going up, whilst adjusting relatively fast to cuts in interest rates. In the lower part of the slide, you can see the significant increase in NII at the group level, growing at a pace of 7.4% quarter-over-quarter and 55% year-over-year due to a higher market rates, loan growth and interest and valuation income from investment securities and overnight funds held on the portfolio.

這可以用其資產敏感條件來解釋，因為 66% 的貸款組合是浮動的，而 38% 的存款是浮動的。此外，值得強調的是，55% 的定期存款在不到 1 年的時間內到期，這在利率下降時提供了一些利潤保護。這種結構無疑代表了一種競爭優勢，因為它允許銀行在利率上升時獲得更高的利潤，同時相對快速地調整以降低利率。在幻燈片的下半部分，您可以看到集團層面的 NII 顯著增長，由於市場利率較高、貸款增長，環比增長 7.4%，同比增長 55%投資組合持有的投資證券和隔夜基金的利息和估值收入。

As a result, NIM increased to 6.8%, expanding more than 170 basis points from the recorded in 2021. It's worth mentioning the contribution of investment portfolio as well that reached a NIM of 4.1% for the period, well above its past performance.

結果，淨息差增至 6.8%，較 2021 年的記錄擴大了 170 多個基點。值得一提的是，投資組合的貢獻在此期間達到 4.1% 的淨息差，遠高於過去的表現。

In the short term, we expect NIM to remain stable as the average rate of the Central Bank that determines reference rate IBR will be higher versus 2022. In the long term, NIM should be at around 5.5% area.

短期內，我們預計 NIM 將保持穩定，因為確定參考利率 IBR 的央行平均利率將高於 2022 年。從長期來看，NIM 應該在 5.5% 左右。

Moving to Slide 13, we provide a snapshot of fees. Fees grew 10% during the year, exhibiting increases of around 20% in almost all categories. Colombia provided the largest contribution to the fee income given the increase in volume of transactions as per higher retail activity as well as an important growth in the number of clients.

轉到幻燈片 13，我們提供了費用概覽。年內費用增長了 10%，幾乎所有類別的費用都增長了 20% 左右。鑑於交易量隨著零售活動的增加以及客戶數量的顯著增長而增加，哥倫比亞對手續費收入的貢獻最大。

The incremental demand in consumer loans and credit cards outstanding also added to the positive performance in fees related to these products.

消費貸款和未償還信用卡的增量需求也增加了與這些產品相關的費用的積極表現。

Bancassurance performance was noticeable during the year, growing 27%, explained by a continued growth on distributed products, largely associated to disbursement of retail loans. Banking service in turn grew as a result of the growth in transactional projects and use of digital channels. The income ratio slightly drops as a result of higher net income growth relative to net fee income growth.

年內銀行保險業績顯著，增長 27%，原因是分佈式產品的持續增長，主要與零售貸款的支付有關。由於交易項目的增長和數字渠道的使用，銀行服務反過來也有所增長。由於淨收入增長高於淨費用收入增長，收入比率略有下降。

Moving into Slide 14, we present the evolution of provisions and asset quality. Provision for credit losses for the quarter were COP 1.7 trillion, equivalent to a cost of risk of 2.6%. This represent an increase of 49% quarter-over-quarter, out of which COP 450 billion are due to update on consumer-related parameters and macro inputs, whilst the remaining balance is due to loan origination and deterioration. As opposed to the third quarter, there were no [overline] releases during the fourth quarter.

轉到幻燈片 14，我們展示了準備金和資產質量的演變。本季度的信貸損失準備金為 1.7 萬億比索，相當於 2.6% 的風險成本。這表示環比增長 49%，其中 4500 億哥倫比亞比索是由於消費者相關參數和宏觀投入的更新，而剩餘餘額是由於貸款發放和惡化。與第三季度不同，第四季度沒有 [overline] 發布。

Furthermore, provisions for credit losses for the past -- the last 12 months were COP 3.7 trillion equivalent to a cost of risk of 1.6%, an increase of 56% year-over-year is basically explained by the loan growth and the low base of comparison versus 2021. The 90-day past due loan ratio for the year-end in 2022 was 2.2%, down from 3% in 2021 reflecting a healthier balance and driven by a better payment behavior and improvement in the collection process. Charge-offs increased 65% year-over-year associated mainly with reliefs granted during the COVID-19 crisis.

此外，過去 12 個月的信貸損失準備金為 3.7 萬億比索，相當於 1.6% 的風險成本，同比增長 56%，這主要是由於貸款增長和基數較低與 2021 年相比。2022 年年底的 90 天逾期貸款比率為 2.2%，低於 2021 年的 3%，這反映了更健康的平衡以及更好的支付行為和收款流程的改進。沖銷同比增長 65%，主要與 COVID-19 危機期間授予的減免有關。

We continue committed to responsible growth. Our allowances as a percentage of loans remains strong and represents a coverage 90-day past due loans of 254%. Going forward, we forecast a cost of risk of around 1.8% for the 2023.

我們繼續致力於負責任的增長。我們的備抵佔貸款的百分比仍然很高，覆蓋了 254% 的 90 天逾期貸款。展望未來，我們預測 2023 年的風險成本約為 1.8%。

Moving to Slide 15, we present our operating expenses and efficiency ratio. Operating expenses grew 18.8% in '22 driven by a combination of FX depreciation and inflation as well as higher taxes and investment in technology. As a result of the positive overall income performance delivered during the year and coupled with several cost control initiatives, the cost-to-income ratio of Bancolombia for 2022 was 44.6%. Notwithstanding this would result going forward, we expect a more sustainable ratio at a level of 45%, aligned with the normalized income generation.

轉到幻燈片 15，我們展示了我們的運營費用和效率比。在外匯貶值和通貨膨脹以及更高的稅收和技術投資的共同推動下，22 年的運營費用增長了 18.8%。由於年內整體收入表現良好，加上多項成本控制措施，Bancolombia 2022 年的成本收入比為 44.6%。儘管這會導致未來的發展，但我們預計該比率將更可持續地保持在 45% 的水平，與正常化的收入產生保持一致。

Moving into Slide 16. We present the profitability metrics. As mentioned before, there was a strong income generation during 2022 that drove margin expansion and diluted cost. As a result, net income for the year was COP 6.8 trillion and delivered a return on equity of 19.8%. However, going forward, as global and local economic conditions deteriorate, we forecast a sharp moderation in loan growth, fee income and higher expenses related to provisions and operations.

轉到幻燈片 16。我們介紹盈利能力指標。如前所述，2022 年收入強勁，推動了利潤率擴張和攤薄成本。結果，當年的淨收入為 6.8 萬億比索，股本回報率為 19.8%。然而，展望未來，隨著全球和地方經濟狀況惡化，我們預測貸款增長、費用收入以及與撥備和運營相關的更高費用將急劇放緩。

The effective tax rate for the year-end in 2022 was 28%. And as a result of the recent tax reform, we forecast a tax rate of 32% area for 2023.

2022 年底的有效稅率為 28%。由於最近的稅制改革，我們預測 2023 年的稅率為 32%。

And finally, on Slide 17, we present a snapshot of the bank's capital. The bank's capital adequacy ratio on a consolidated basis stood at a level of 12.79% by year-end under full Basel III. Strong profitability boosted core equity Tier 1 generation in 284 bps during the year. Conversely, there was a total of 439 bps reduction mainly associated with the strong organic growth, coupled with a significant [crop] depreciation that increased the value of Colombian pesos of dollar-denominated loans and the goodwill.

最後，在幻燈片 17 上，我們展示了銀行資本的快照。根據巴塞爾協議 III，截至年底，該銀行的綜合資本充足率達到 12.79% 的水平。強勁的盈利能力在年內以 284 個基點的速度推動了核心股權一級資產的產生。相反，總共減少了 439 個基點，主要與強勁的有機增長有關，加上顯著的 [作物] 貶值，增加了哥倫比亞比索的美元計價貸款和商譽的價值。

Going forward, we expect a loan growth of 5% and core equity Tier 1 up at around 11% at the end of 2023. Now I will hand over the presentation back to Juan Carlos for some final remarks. Juan?

展望未來，我們預計到 2023 年底貸款增長 5%，核心一級股權增長 11% 左右。現在我將把演講交還給 Juan Carlos 做最後的評論。娟？

Thank you, Jose Humberto. 2023 will be a challenging year. We acknowledge that the world has changed in many ways, and it's having an impact in the countries in where we operate such as economic slowdown, persistent high inflation, high interest rates, higher unemployment among others. However, we are confident that our strategy and our competitive advantages will allow us to better handle the tougher conditions whilst we continue to pursue on our long-term strategy.

謝謝你，何塞·溫貝托。 2023年將是充滿挑戰的一年。我們承認，世界在很多方面都發生了變化，它正在對我們開展業務的國家/地區產生影響，例如經濟放緩、持續高通脹、高利率、高失業率等。然而，我們相信，我們的戰略和競爭優勢將使我們能夠在繼續追求長期戰略的同時更好地應對更嚴峻的形勢。

We will continue supporting our clients with a special focus in asset quality, proactively assisting them to find solutions to avoid loan deterioration and leveraging more on data analytics to monitor the payment capacity to preserve ahead balance sheet.

我們將繼續支持我們的客戶，特別關注資產質量，積極協助他們找到避免貸款惡化的解決方案，並更多地利用數據分析來監控支付能力以保持領先的資產負債表。

Meanwhile, based on our estimations, our loan growth will be around 5%. Cost of risk around 1.8% area and NIM around 6.5%. We forecast our core equity Tier 1 ratio for the year-end 2023 will be around 11%. Thus, yesterday, we announced the dividend proposal to be discussed in the Annual Shareholders Meeting in March, consisting of 50% dividend payout, equivalent to COP 3.4 trillion, payable in 4 quarterly installments of COP 884 per share during the year. And finally, our long-term ROE should stand around 15% area. With this, I will invite you to ask any questions you may have.

同時，根據我們的估計，我們的貸款增長將在 5%左右。風險成本約為 1.8%，NIM 約為 6.5%。我們預計到 2023 年底我們的核心一級資本比率將在 11% 左右。因此，昨天，我們宣布了將在 3 月份的年度股東大會上討論的股息提案，其中包括 50% 的股息支付，相當於 3.4 萬億哥倫比亞比索，年內分 4 個季度分期支付，每股 884 比索。最後，我們的長期股本回報率應該在 15% 左右。有了這個，我將邀請您提出任何問題。

(Operator Instructions) The first question is from Ernesto Gabilondo from Bank of America.

（操作員說明）第一個問題來自美國銀行的 Ernesto Gabilondo。

Juan Carlos, Jose Humberto, Catalina and good morning to all your team. Thank you for your presentation and for the opportunity. My first question is on NIMs. Just wondering where do you see NIMs for this year? I was looking to your chief economist's comments and is actually expecting a higher rates in 2023. So just wondering how do you see the NIM evolution this year.

胡安·卡洛斯、何塞·溫貝托、卡塔琳娜，大家早上好。感謝您的介紹和機會。我的第一個問題是關於 NIM。只是想知道您在哪裡看到今年的 NIM？我正在查看您的首席經濟學家的評論，實際上預計 2023 年會出現更高的利率。所以只是想知道您如何看待今年的 NIM 演變。

And then my second question is on asset quality. During the quarter, we saw higher provisions and write-offs considering a weaker macro outlook in Colombia and some of the subsidiaries. So also wanted to hear your thoughts on the cost of risk for this year.

然後我的第二個問題是關於資產質量。在本季度，考慮到哥倫比亞和一些子公司的宏觀前景較弱，我們看到了更高的撥備和註銷。所以也想听聽您對今年風險成本的看法。

Thank you, Ernesto. Regarding NIM, as you know, inflation remains high in Colombia and still there will be inflation pressures. With that, we foresee that the Central Bank -- the Colombian Central Bank, it's probably going to increase the reference rate in the next session. Could be 50 basis points, could be even 75 basis points. With that, interest rates will continue increasing and, as you know, that has an effect on our NIM. So what we see is that the NIM will remain and probably we will expand a little during this year. We mentioned that the NIM should be around 6.7%, 6.5% -- between 6.5% and 6.7% because of interest rates will remain high.

謝謝你，埃內斯托。關於NIM，如您所知，哥倫比亞的通貨膨脹率仍然很高，並且仍然存在通貨膨脹壓力。因此，我們預計中央銀行——哥倫比亞中央銀行可能會在下屆會議上調高參考利率。可能是 50 個基點，甚至可能是 75 個基點。這樣一來，利率將繼續上升，並且如您所知，這會對我們的 NIM 產生影響。所以我們看到的是 NIM 將保留下來，並且我們可能會在今年擴大一點。我們提到 NIM 應該在 6.7%、6.5% 左右——在 6.5% 和 6.7% 之間，因為利率將保持高位。

We don't expect that the inflationary pressures will cease soon. And because of that, probably the Central Bank will remain interest rates high for the remaining of the year or will start decreasing interest rates by the end of the year. So what we expect, as I said already, is that with that condition, our NIM should be around the one that we have today, even a little bit high.

我們預計通脹壓力不會很快停止。正因為如此，央行可能會在今年剩餘時間裡保持高利率，或者在年底前開始降低利率。因此，正如我已經說過的那樣，我們期望的是，在這種情況下，我們的 NIM 應該在我們今天擁有的水平附近，甚至有點高。

Regarding asset quality, for me, that's the variable to watch during this year. It's going to be key how the loan book is going to perform, particularly the consumer book. What we see is that the curve is going to normalize, and we will have some additional pressures. What we are seeing now is that the cost of risk should return during this year to 1.8 area, could be a little bit more, depending on the pressure, as I mentioned, on -- particularly on the retail side. But definitely, that's the variable that we need to watch.

關於資產質量，對我來說，這是今年值得關注的變量。貸款賬簿的表現將是關鍵，尤其是消費者賬簿。我們看到的是曲線將正常化，我們將面臨一些額外的壓力。我們現在看到的是，今年風險成本應該會回到 1.8 區域，可能會多一點，這取決於壓力，正如我提到的，特別是在零售方面。但可以肯定的是，這是我們需要關注的變量。

What we are doing is what we are anticipating that situation, and we are working with our customers, our clients, understanding the current cash flow situation. And working with them and [not waiting for] -- to have issues with their loans. So we are anticipating -- and other thing that we are doing is, this year, we're not going to push for growth. We will be concentrated on asset quality, [Ernesto.]

我們正在做的就是我們對這種情況的預期，我們正在與我們的客戶、我們的客戶合作，了解當前的現金流狀況。並與他們合作，[而不是等待]——他們的貸款出現問題。所以我們預計 - 我們正在做的另一件事是，今年我們不會推動增長。我們將專注於資產質量，[埃內斯托。]

The next question is from Yuri Fernandes from JPMorgan.

下一個問題來自摩根大通的 Yuri Fernandes。

One regarding G&A outlook. How do we see noninterest expenses growing. This year, it was a high growth, growing closer to 20% year-over-year, but I think FX explain part of it. But even Colombia, that should be more normalized, like had a higher G&A year, I know you have a lot of IT investments, inflation is high. So any guidance for 2023 is welcome here.

一個關於 G&A 前景。我們如何看待非利息支出的增長。今年，這是一個高增長，同比增長接近 20%，但我認為外匯可以解釋部分原因。但即使是哥倫比亞，也應該更加正常化，比如 G&A 年度較高，我知道你有很多 IT 投資，通貨膨脹率很高。因此，歡迎提供 2023 年的任何指導意見。

And I have a second question regarding our equity evolution. This was a very good quarter for your capital, right? Your shareholders eq decreased almost 2x your net income generation. And I'd like to understand the moving parts here. Looking to our balance sheet, it seems to be more OCI-driven like -- and I would like to understand this, like what is risking like your equity to move up, so we can expect like volatility here. So is this effect even at these rates? Like what is rising of this good behavior for capital for you?

我還有第二個關於我們股權演變的問題。對於你的資本來說，這是一個非常好的季度，對吧？您的股東 eq 減少了近 2 倍的淨收入。我想了解這裡的活動部分。看看我們的資產負債表，它似乎更像是 OCI 驅動的——我想了解這一點，就像你的股票有上升的風險，所以我們可以預期這裡會有波動。那麼即使在這些速率下也會產生這種效果嗎？像這種對資本的好行為對你來說是什麼？

Thank you, Yuri. I am going to give you some comments around your 2 points, then I will pass your question to Jose Humberto to and he will give you more details. Expenses, that's -- as you mentioned, there are pressures from FX, also from inflation and investments. We foresee -- or we are forecasting that expenses will grow a little bit above inflation -- Colombian inflation.

謝謝你，尤里。我將圍繞你的 2 點給你一些評論，然後我會將你的問題傳遞給 Jose Humberto，他會為你提供更多詳細信息。費用，正如你提到的，有來自外彙的壓力，也有來自通貨膨脹和投資的壓力。我們預見——或者我們正在預測支出增長將略高於通貨膨脹——哥倫比亞的通貨膨脹。

We are, as I said, investing on technology. Those investments, we plan to continue, but we need to work on other expenses and find space for those investments on technology. So that's a focus. We -- what we are seeing and how are we handling this is we are targeting a 45% efficiency ratio. With that, we will be managing expenses. We think that with a 45% efficiency ratio target, we can deliver the ROE that we are expecting. So with that, as I said, expenses will grow a little above inflation. And with this, I will pass your questions to Jose Humberto.

正如我所說，我們正在投資技術。這些投資，我們計劃繼續，但我們需要處理其他費用，並為這些技術投資尋找空間。所以這是一個重點。我們 - 我們所看到的以及我們如何處理這個問題是我們的目標是 45% 的效率比。這樣，我們將管理費用。我們認為，以 45% 的效率比率目標，我們可以提供我們預期的股本回報率。因此，正如我所說，支出增長將略高於通貨膨脹。有了這個，我會把你的問題傳遞給 Jose Humberto。

Thank you, Juan. Yes, Yuri, remember the part of our expenses are highly correlated with the level of transactionality that the bank has in different channels. So that also explains. This is the fourth element that explains why we are expecting on CapEx and OpEx increasing a little bit above inflation for the 2023.

謝謝你，胡安。是的，尤里，請記住我們的部分費用與銀行在不同渠道中的交易水平高度相關。所以這也解釋了。這是解釋為什麼我們期望 2023 年資本支出和運營支出增長略高於通貨膨脹率的第四個因素。

Regarding your second question, the equity evolution, yes, there is one element that will impact the solvency ratio at the end of the year that will be FX, but our forecast for FX 2023 will be less volatile than the FX that we had in 2022. So we are assuming to reaching the level of 11% of Tier 1 based on loan growth of 5%, cost of risk of 1.8% and an FX rate on average of COP 4900. That explains why our rationale to maintain on average during the year, the 10.5%, but at the end of this year, 11%.

關於你的第二個問題，股票的演變，是的，有一個因素會影響年底的償付能力比率，那就是外匯，但我們對 2023 年外彙的預測將比 2022 年的外匯波動更小. 因此，我們假設基於 5% 的貸款增長、1.8% 的風險成本和 4900 哥倫比亞比索的平均匯率，達到 11% 的一級水平。這解釋了為什麼我們在今年是10.5%，今年年底是11%。

The next question is from Andres Soto from Santander.

下一個問題來自桑坦德銀行的 Andres Soto。

I have a few questions. The first one related to margins. I'm curious to see that you are forecasting stable margins for 2023 even. And as you expect higher interest rates from the Central Bank, and you have had such a great performance in terms of the funding structure, so what would be the risk for margins not to continue to move in tandem with higher Colombia rates? That would be my first question.

我有幾個問題。第一個與邊距有關。我很好奇你甚至預測 2023 年的利潤率會穩定。正如您預期中央銀行會提高利率，並且您在融資結構方面的表現如此出色，那麼保證金不繼續與哥倫比亞利率上漲同步的風險是什麼？那將是我的第一個問題。

Thank you. Thank you, Andres. With margins, I think we will keep moving, as you said, in tandem with the reference rates. As you know, we have a very diversified cost of funds. And we will have some additional pressure from the cost side or cost of funds, but we are able to manage, I think, the price in a way that we maintain the market. You could notice that we are not forecasting a big increase -- additional increases on margin. That allows us to manage what is coming.

謝謝。謝謝你，安德烈斯。對於利潤率，我認為我們將繼續前進，正如你所說的那樣，與參考利率同步。如您所知，我們的資金成本非常多樣化。我們將面臨來自成本方面或資金成本的額外壓力，但我認為，我們能夠以維持市場的方式管理價格。您可能會注意到，我們並未預測會有大幅增長——保證金會額外增加。這使我們能夠管理即將發生的事情。

So we are confident that the forecast that -- or the guidance that we are giving around NIMs will -- it's accurate. I don't know Jose Humberto if do you want to add something?

因此，我們相信預測——或者我們圍繞 NIM 提供的指導——是準確的。我不知道 Jose Humberto 是否要添加一些內容？

Yes. Juan, thank you. We have, Andres, 2 elements. On the loan portfolio, we are not expecting to grow in consumer loans that you know that this is a source of net income of NII. So we are potentially maintaining the same volumes of consumer loans during the whole year for the group. This is the first element of the asset side.

是的。胡安，謝謝你。安德烈斯，我們有 2 個元素。在貸款組合中，我們預計消費貸款不會增長，您知道這是 NII 的淨收入來源。因此，我們可能會在全年為該集團維持相同數量的消費貸款。這是資產端的第一個要素。

On the funding side, we are having a very big portion of our deposits in savings accounts. But because of the interest rate is quite high, people will shift from savings accounts and checking accounts to time deposits. So the product for the Colombian banking industry during 2023 will be time deposits. So you are going to see an increase in our funding cost because of that. Because when the interest rates are high, there is not a point of indifference in between having the money on savings or time deposits. So time deposits will be the main driver for the liquidity. Those are the 2 elements that give us the explanation why we are able to sustain the NIM during the year.

在資金方面，我們有很大一部分存款存在儲蓄賬戶中。但由於利率相當高，人們會從儲蓄賬戶和支票賬戶轉向定期存款。因此，2023 年哥倫比亞銀行業的產品將是定期存款。因此，你會看到我們的融資成本增加。因為當利率很高時，將錢存入儲蓄或定期存款之間並沒有什麼區別。因此，定期存款將成為流動性的主要驅動力。這些是讓我們解釋為什麼我們能夠在這一年中維持 NIM 的兩個要素。

My second question is regarding cost of risk. You say that you expect that to be at 1.8%. To me, that sounds a little bit optimistic. I remember in the past, you mentioned that the structural cost of base for Bancolombia should be around 1.9%, so 1.8% in a year, which with so many uncertainties. And all the banks were growing at such a fast pace in 2022, particularly in consumer lending as those loans come due, we may see some pressure there, right? So what will be sort of a range that you may expect in a more challenging environment, to what level you see cost of risk going, naturally the 2.6% that you posted this quarter, it should be the reference of what would be the stress scenario that we can use in our projections?

我的第二個問題是關於風險成本。你說你預計是 1.8%。對我來說，這聽起來有點樂觀。我記得以前你提到過Bancolombia base的結構性成本應該在1.9%左右，所以一年1.8%，不確定因素太多了。所有銀行在 2022 年都以如此快的速度增長，尤其是在消費貸款到期時，我們可能會看到一些壓力，對吧？那麼，在更具挑戰性的環境中，您可能期望的範圍是什麼，您認為風險成本會達到什麼水平，自然是您本季度發布的 2.6%，它應該是壓力情景的參考我們可以在我們的預測中使用？

Andres, as we mentioned, the cost of risk is variable to watch during this year. Today, we are seeing a 1.8% area. But you are right, that could be a little bit higher. It depends how the economic conditions in Colombia evolve. You asked how high could go. It could be around 1.9% if the deterioration is higher than we are expecting. So if you want to do some sensibility, it could be 1.8% as a mid scenario and could go up to 1.9%. It depends on, as I said, how things evolve in Colombia. And that's the variable, again, to watch. And that variable will be the driver of Bancolombia results during 2023.

安德烈斯，正如我們提到的，風險成本在今年值得關注。今天，我們看到了 1.8% 的區域。但你是對的，這可能會高一點。這取決於哥倫比亞的經濟狀況如何演變。你問能走多高。如果惡化程度高於我們的預期，則可能在 1.9% 左右。所以如果你想做一些敏感性，它可能是 1.8% 作為中期情景，可能會上升到 1.9%。正如我所說，這取決於哥倫比亞的情況如何演變。這也是值得關注的變量。該變量將成為 2023 年 Bancolombia 結果的驅動因素。

The next question is from Carlos Gomez from HSBC.

下一個問題來自匯豐銀行的 Carlos Gomez。

Congratulations on the results. Going back to questions that have already been asked, but I was wondering, you had a very conservative view of 2023, you expect less than 1% growth, and you don't want to lend too much. So I contrast that with the fact that at the same time, you are increasing the dividend, you are going for a 50% payout when traditionally, the company has had around 30%, 35%. Why is that? Wouldn't this be the right moment to accumulate capital just in case since at other points, you may not be able to have the luxury. And would you want to -- do you want to stay with that 11%? Or would you want perhaps to go a bit further in terms of accumulating capital again at this time when you have high profitability.

祝賀結果。回到已經問過的問題，但我想知道，你對 2023 年的看法非常保守，你預計增長不到 1%，而且你不想放貸太多。因此，我將這一事實與您同時增加股息的事實進行對比，您將獲得 50% 的派息，而傳統上，公司的派息率約為 30%、35%。這是為什麼？這難道不是積累資本以防萬一的好時機嗎，因為在其他時候，您可能無法擁有這種奢侈。你想——你想留在那 11% 嗎？或者，當您的盈利能力很高時，您是否希望在再次積累資本方面走得更遠。

Thank you, Carlos. As we said, the payout that the Board is proposing to the shareholders meeting it's 50%. Our average has been around 47% with some viability during the year. We feel comfortable that with 50% payout, we can manage a healthy level of equity that we forecast to be at the end of the year around 11% since growth is not going to be present during this year, and there will be -- there is not going to be pressure from loan growth. We will be, as I said, around 11%. We feel that, that's a level in which it's comfortable, it's enough, accumulated too much capital, I think, is -- we need to find the right level and the right level for us is that 11% cuts.

謝謝你，卡洛斯。正如我們所說，董事會提議向股東大會支付的股息為 50%。我們的平均水平一直在 47% 左右，在這一年中具有一定的可行性。我們感到滿意的是，有了 50% 的支出，我們可以管理一個健康的股權水平，我們預計到年底將達到 11% 左右，因為今年不會出現增長，而且將會 - 有不會受到貸款增長的壓力。正如我所說，我們將達到 11% 左右。我們認為，這是一個舒適的水平，足夠了，我認為積累了太多資本——我們需要找到合適的水平，而對我們來說合適的水平是削減 11%。

Okay. If I can push back a little. I mean historically, excess capital has not been a problem for Bancolombia. And again, since you are conservative at this point in time, and you have a high profitability, I wonder why this would not be the right time to accumulate more. But of course, it is the decision of the management, and then you have to do what you think is best.

好的。如果我能退後一點。我的意思是從歷史上看，過剩的資本對 Bancolombia 來說並不是問題。再一次，既然你在這個時間點是保守的，而且你有很高的盈利能力，我想知道為什麼現在不是增持的合適時機。但當然，這是管理層的決定，然後你必須做你認為最好的事情。

Thank you, Carlos.

謝謝你，卡洛斯。

The next question is from Nicholas Walker from Goldman Sachs.

下一個問題來自高盛的 Nicholas Walker。

First on the political environment in Colombia. How are you monitoring that situation? And maybe what are you watching there and maybe specifically more on the tax rate or any other worries in terms of political environment in Colombia.

首先是關於哥倫比亞的政治環境。你如何監控這種情況？也許你在那裡看什麼，也許更多的是關於稅率或哥倫比亞政治環境方面的任何其他擔憂。

And second, just on the expectations for fee and for fee growth next year in 2023.

其次，僅是對明年 2023 年費用和費用增長的預期。

Thank you, Nicholas. The political environment this year is focused on 3 big reforms that the government is submitting to Congress. The health system reform that was already presented, and it started to being discussed. And they announced that they will be presenting soon the labor reform and also the pension system reform.

謝謝你，尼古拉斯。今年的政治環境集中在政府向國會提交的 3 項重大改革上。已經提出的衛生體制改革，並開始討論。他們宣布他們將很快提出勞動改革和養老金制度改革。

Last year, as you know, the tax reform increase the statutory rates for financial institutions to 40%. That's -- now it's incorporated on our forecast and in our guidance. And as of today, we don't see any particular regulation regarding financial institutions.

大家知道，去年稅改將金融機構的法定稅率提高到40%。那就是 - 現在它已納入我們的預測和我們的指導中。到今天為止，我們還沒有看到任何關於金融機構的特別規定。

They will -- there would be a -- or the discussions in Congress will be around these 3 big reforms. And that's what we are expecting now. So we need to be watching the evolution of any other variables or any other issues that the government is raising. But with our conversations with the government, they are not looking to introduce big reforms.

他們將會——會有——或者國會的討論將圍繞這三項重大改革展開。這就是我們現在所期待的。因此，我們需要關注任何其他變量或政府提出的任何其他問題的演變。但根據我們與政府的對話，他們並不打算引入重大改革。

What is going to happen, and they are working on that is they are going to welcome having more strong public banks, government banks, which they are saying, are going to complement what private banks or commercial banks are doing, that's something that they announced and they are working on that.

將會發生什麼，他們正在努力，他們將歡迎擁有更強大的公共銀行，政府銀行，他們說，將補充私人銀行或商業銀行正在做的事情，這是他們宣布的事情他們正在努力。

Regarding fees, we think that the key level of fee growth should be also around 8% this year. The introduction of new services, transactionality, it's important for us since we are growing in the number of clients on a very healthy way, will help us to maintain a growth on fees, Nicholas.

收費方面，我們認為今年收費增長的關鍵水平也應該在8%左右。尼古拉斯，新服務、交易性的引入對我們很重要，因為我們的客戶數量正在以非常健康的方式增長，這將有助於我們保持費用的增長。

The next question is from Daniel Mora from CrediCorp Capital.

下一個問題來自 CrediCorp Capital 的 Daniel Mora。

I have to ask one question regarding the NIM. You already mentioned that the guidance for this year is between 6.5% and 6.7%, but I would like to understand what is your base case scenario of the path of the NIM during the year because if we see the last couple of quarters, we saw a NIM above 7%. So it means that you believe that this could be maintained at least in the first half of the year as we are not expecting a decrease in interest rates. And then I would like to understand what would be the NIM in the second half of the year considering this scenario and that you are maintaining an interest rate above 12%. I think that it will help also to understand what will be the outlook of the cost of deposits to better know -- to better incorporate the guidance of the 6.5%, 6.7% ratio (inaudible).

我必須問一個關於 NIM 的問題。你已經提到今年的指導在 6.5% 到 6.7% 之間，但我想了解你對 NIM 在這一年中路徑的基本情景是什麼，因為如果我們看到最後幾個季度，我們看到淨息差高於 7%。因此，這意味著您認為這至少可以在今年上半年維持，因為我們預計利率不會下降。然後我想了解考慮到這種情況下下半年的 NIM 是多少，並且您將利率維持在 12% 以上。我認為這也將有助於更好地了解存款成本的前景——更好地納入 6.5%、6.7% 比率（聽不清）的指導。

Thank you, Daniel. I'm going to give you some general comments and Jose Humberto will give you some more details. It is important to take into account that the interest income will continue to be healthy because of volume that we built during 2022 and because rates are going to continue to be high. But there is volatility on the treasury business margin. The treasury business during last quarter, particularly during December, had a very good performance, but that's not going to be the case, we think, during the year. So -- but the [base] margin has more volatility. So you have to take into account what is -- what part it's related to loans and what part it's related to the treasury business.

謝謝你，丹尼爾。我會給你一些一般性的評論，Jose Humberto 會給你一些更多的細節。重要的是要考慮到利息收入將繼續保持健康，因為我們在 2022 年建立了交易量，而且利率將繼續保持高位。但資金業務利潤率存在波動。上個季度，尤其是 12 月的資金業務表現非常好，但我們認為，這一年的情況並非如此。所以 - 但 [base] 保證金有更大的波動性。所以你必須考慮什麼是 - 它與貸款相關的部分以及它與資金業務相關的部分。

As I said, the interest rate income will continue being in a level that it's the current level or even an increasing level. Regarding the cost of funds, let me pass that to Jose Humberto and he will give you more details on that.

正如我所說，利率收入將繼續處於當前水平甚至增加的水平。關於資金成本，讓我將其傳遞給 Jose Humberto，他將為您提供更多詳細信息。

Thank you, Juan. Yes, again, the structure of funding costs for the bank will shift during this year from checking and savings accounts to time deposits. That explains why we -- you are going to see an increase in our funding costs, (inaudible) only growing 5% as I mentioned and is not growing on consumers. So that would be the key element that support our cases of the NIM will be stable. And going back to the treasury business, also you have to take into consideration that our portfolio is less than 8% of the total assets. So if you compare both elements, we are talking about 79% of our asset size are loan portfolio and 8% securities portfolio. So if you do the math, if you combine both FX, you are going to see a stable NIM for the whole year.

謝謝你，胡安。是的，今年銀行的融資成本結構將從支票和儲蓄賬戶轉向定期存款。這就解釋了為什麼我們 - 你會看到我們的融資成本增加，（聽不清）正如我提到的那樣僅增長 5%，並且沒有在消費者身上增長。因此，這將是支持我們的 NIM 案例穩定的關鍵因素。回到資金業務，你還必須考慮到我們的投資組合不到總資產的 8%。所以如果你比較這兩個元素，我們談論的是我們資產規模的 79% 是貸款組合和 8% 的證券組合。所以如果你算一下，如果你把兩種外匯結合起來，你會看到全年穩定的 NIM。

The next question is from Julian Ausique from Davivienda Corredores.

下一個問題來自 Davivienda Corredores 的 Julian Ausique。

I would like to ask about the net stable funding ratio. As you mentioned, you are expecting that you will have to change your funding sources from saving accounts to time deposits. So I would like to know if you are now having the few requirements that the regulation is to sort in a stable funding ratio or you are having some pressure on that and what are your expectations for this year about this ratio?

我想問一下淨穩定資金比例。正如您提到的，您預計您將不得不將您的資金來源從儲蓄賬戶改為定期存款。所以我想知道您現在是否有監管要求以穩定的資金比例排序的少數要求，或者您對此有一些壓力，您對今年這個比例有何期望？

Thank you, Julian. Fortunately, our net stable funding ratio, it's under control. Currently, we are talking about at around 105%. There is one reason why we have a very strong funding structure because of the level of transaction IT, because of the time deposits and because of the savings accounts that we received from our clients. So for the whole year this year, we have enough space, enough room to move into the corporate deposits and institutional deposits. So we don't feel particular pressure. And the other parties, we are not having pressure because we are not seeing loan growth that we saw last year.

謝謝你，朱利安。幸運的是，我們的淨穩定資金比率在控制之中。目前，我們談論的是 105% 左右。由於交易 IT 水平、定期存款以及我們從客戶那裡收到的儲蓄賬戶，我們擁有非常強大的資金結構的原因之一。所以今年全年，我們有足夠的空間，足夠的空間去進入公司存款和機構存款。所以我們並沒有感到特別的壓力。而其他方面，我們沒有壓力，因為我們沒有看到去年的貸款增長。

Okay. And my second question, I would like to ask you about the loan portfolio. You mentioned that you are expecting a 5% of loan growth. Can you give us more color about which segments are you expecting the best growth for the year 2023? And if you can remind me the expectation of ROE for the year?

好的。我的第二個問題，我想問你關於貸款組合的問題。您提到您預計貸款增長為 5%。您能否給我們更多關於您預計 2023 年增長最快的細分市場的顏色？如果你能提醒我今年的股本回報率預期？

Okay. Regarding your first question, on the low side of the loan growth will be consumer, as we mentioned previously, 0% to 2% loan growth consumer. On the upper side would be commercial correlated with the GDP growth. And in the middle, we are going to see the mortgage business. So the combination will be the 5% that we mentioned.

好的。關於你的第一個問題，貸款增長的低端將是消費者，正如我們之前提到的，0% 到 2% 的貸款增長消費者。在上端，商業與 GDP 增長相關。在中間，我們將看到抵押貸款業務。所以組合將是我們提到的 5%。

Our return on equity for 2023, we are expecting a return on equity clearly at around 16% to 17%. And the main driver will be the NII generation because interest rates will remain high, assuming, as Juan mentioned, the cost of risk of 1.8%.

我們 2023 年的股本回報率，我們預計股本回報率明顯在 16% 至 17% 左右。主要驅動力將是 NII 一代，因為利率將保持高位，假設正如 Juan 提到的那樣，風險成本為 1.8%。

The next question is from Juan Recalde from Scotiabank.

下一個問題來自豐業銀行的 Juan Recalde。

So my question in this context of high rates and slowing economic growth, we have seen some peers in the region make material changes to their digital initiatives. And you have delivered so far strong growth in user and strong engagement in your digital platforms. So in this context, can you talk about how the higher rates and slower economic growth impact Bancolombia's digital initiatives, particularly NEQUI, Bancolombia a la Mano?

因此，在高利率和經濟增長放緩的背景下，我的問題是，我們已經看到該地區的一些同行對其數字計劃進行了重大改變。到目前為止，您已經實現了用戶的強勁增長和對數字平台的強烈參與。因此，在這種情況下，您能否談談較高的利率和較慢的經濟增長如何影響 Bancolombia 的數字計劃，尤其是 NEQUI，Bancolombia a la Mano？

Thank you, Juan. Yes, that's very important. And we continue seeing a very, very healthy growth on our digital platforms. NEQUI continues its path growing at around 300,000 new clients a month. We are, at this point, reaching 15.5 million clients. The usage continue to be very good, around 67%. So that's more than or close to 10 million active users a month. And that -- and also, we see that same trend or similar trend on Bancolombia or Bancolombia a la Mano.

謝謝你，胡安。是的，這很重要。我們繼續在我們的數字平台上看到非常、非常健康的增長。 NEQUI 繼續以每月約 300,000 個新客戶的速度增長。在這一點上，我們有 1550 萬客戶。使用率仍然非常好，約為 67%。因此，每月有超過或接近 1000 萬活躍用戶。而且 - 而且，我們在 Bancolombia 或 Bancolombia a la Mano 上看到了相同或類似的趨勢。

Particularly Colombians now are using the digital tools -- the financial digital tools for the everyday life. That is creating a base, a very important base of clients that is -- are giving us a lot of information on how they behave, how they use money. And that information will allow us to increase our presentation with different products, not just financial products, but other products, and it's given also information for loans or how to originate loans to this group.

特別是哥倫比亞人現在正在使用數字工具——日常生活中的金融數字工具。那就是建立一個基礎，一個非常重要的客戶基礎——正在為我們提供很多關於他們的行為方式、他們如何使用金錢的信息。這些信息將使我們能夠增加我們對不同產品的展示，不僅是金融產品，還有其他產品，它還提供了貸款信息或如何向該群體發放貸款。

We currently are doing pilots or moving on the direction of leveraging that information for loan growth. That will take some time. It's something that is not going to materially affect positively the results of Bancolombia, but for the future, it will be very, very important. Total base of clients of Bancolombia, it's more -- it's around 28 million, including all countries, but particularly in Colombia, we reached close to half of the population of Colombia already -- half of the population of Colombia has our product or a relationship with Bancolombia. And that's very important in terms of how we can engage them with different strategies and between platforms, and that's an important base for growth.

我們目前正在進行試點或朝著利用該信息促進貸款增長的方向前進。這需要一些時間。這不會對 Bancolombia 的結果產生實質性的積極影響，但對於未來，它將非常非常重要。 Bancolombia 的客戶總數更多——大約 2800 萬，包括所有國家，但特別是在哥倫比亞，我們已經覆蓋了哥倫比亞近一半的人口——一半的哥倫比亞人口擁有我們的產品或關係與哥倫比亞銀行。這對於我們如何讓他們參與不同的策略和平台之間非常重要，這是增長的重要基礎。

This concludes a question-and-answer session. I would now like to turn the call back over to Mr. Juan Carlos Mora, for closing comments.

問答環節到此結束。我現在想將電話轉回給 Juan Carlos Mora 先生，以徵求結束意見。

Thank you, everybody, for participating in this conference call. I want to apologize for the technical difficulties that we had at the beginning of this call.

感謝大家參加本次電話會議。對於我們在本次電話會議開始時遇到的技術困難，我深表歉意。

We know that 2023 will be a challenging year. It's a different year. The conditions are going to be more challenging, as I said. Credit risk will be a key, and -- but we are confident that with the tools that we have, the origination that we are -- or the origination process that we have in place, will help us to manage that situation or what we are going to face during 2023.

我們知道，2023 年將是充滿挑戰的一年。這是不同的一年。正如我所說，條件將更具挑戰性。信用風險將是一個關鍵，而且 - 但我們相信，憑藉我們擁有的工具，我們的起源 - 或我們現有的起源流程，將幫助我們管理這種情況或我們正在做的事情將在 2023 年面對。

Additionally, we are moving in a direction to be more proactive or to be proactive with our clients trying to anticipate the -- to any situation that they may have and be able or being willing to restructure or to work with them in a way that we can handle the -- any issues they may have. And that is what is allowing us to be optimistic about how we can handle that credit risk. Credit risk could go higher than we expect. But as of today and with the information that we have, that will be very important. So with this, again, I would like to thank you, and we expect to be with you again when we report the first quarter of 2023. Thank you very much and have a good day.

此外，我們正朝著更加積極主動或積極主動的方向努力，我們的客戶試圖預測 - 他們可能擁有並且能夠或願意重組或以我們的方式與他們合作的任何情況可以處理他們可能遇到的任何問題。這就是讓我們對如何處理信用風險持樂觀態度的原因。信用風險可能高於我們的預期。但從今天開始，根據我們掌握的信息，這將非常重要。因此，在此，我再次感謝你們，我們期待在報告 2023 年第一季度時再次與你們在一起。非常感謝你們，祝你有美好的一天。

This concludes today's conference. Thank you for participating. You may now disconnect.

今天的會議到此結束。感謝您的參與。您現在可以斷開連接。