使用警語:中文譯文來源為 Google 翻譯,僅供參考,實際內容請以英文原文為主
Operator
Operator
Greetings, and welcome to Chegg Incorporated third-quarter 2024 earnings conference call. (Operator Instructions) As a reminder, this conference is being recorded.
您好,歡迎參加 Chegg Incorporated 2024 年第三季財報電話會議。 (操作員指示)謹此提醒,本次會議正在錄製中。
I would now like to turn the conference over to your host, Tracey Ford, Vice President of Investor Relations. Thank you. You may begin.
現在我想將會議交給主持人投資者關係副總裁 Traey Ford。謝謝。你可以開始了。
Tracey Ford - Vice President, Investor Relations
Tracey Ford - Vice President, Investor Relations
Good afternoon. Thank you for joining Chegg's third-quarter 2024 conference call. On today's call are Nathan Schultz, President and CEO; and David Longo, Chief Financial Officer. A copy of our earnings press release, along with our investor presentation, is available on our Investor Relations website, investor.chegg.com.
午安.感謝您參加 Chegg 2024 年第三季電話會議。出席今天電話會議的有總裁兼執行長內森舒爾茨 (Nathan Schultz);財務長戴維·隆戈(David Longo)。我們的收益新聞稿以及投資者簡報的副本可在我們的投資者關係網站 Investor.chegg.com 上取得。
A replay of this call will also be available on our website. We routinely post information on our website and intend to make important announcements on our media center website at chegg.com/mediacenter. We encourage you to make use of these resources.
我們的網站上也將提供本次電話會議的重播。我們定期在我們的網站上發布訊息,並打算在我們的媒體中心網站 chegg.com/mediacenter 上發布重要公告。我們鼓勵您利用這些資源。
Before we begin, I would like to point out that during the course of this call, we will make forward-looking statements regarding future events, including the future financial and operating performance of the company. These forward-looking statements are subject to material risks and uncertainties that could cause actual results to differ materially from those in the forward-looking statements.
在開始之前,我想指出,在本次電話會議期間,我們將對未來事件做出前瞻性陳述,包括公司未來的財務和營運績效。這些前瞻性陳述存在重大風險和不確定性,可能導致實際結果與前瞻性陳述中的結果有重大差異。
We caution you to consider the important factors that could cause actual results to differ materially from those in the forward-looking statements. In particular, we refer you to the cautionary language included in today's earnings release and the risk factors described in Chegg's annual report on Form 10-K filed with the Securities and Exchange Commission on February 20, 2024, and Chegg's quarterly report on Form 10-Q filed with the Securities and Exchange Commission on November 12, 2024 as well as our other filings with the SEC.
我們提醒您考慮可能導致實際結果與前瞻性陳述中的結果有重大差異的重要因素。我們特別建議您參閱今天的收益發布中包含的警示性語言以及 Chegg 於 2024 年 2 月 20 日向美國證券交易委員會提交的 10-K 表格年度報告以及 Chegg 10-K 表格季度報告中描述的風險因素。 Q 於2024 年11 月12 日向美國證券交易委員會提交了文件,以及我們向美國證券交易委員會提交的其他文件。
Any forward-looking statements that we make today are based on assumptions that we believe to be reasonable as of this date. We undertake no obligation to update these statements as a result of new information or future events.
我們今天所做的任何前瞻性陳述都是基於我們認為截至目前為止合理的假設。我們不承擔因新資訊或未來事件而更新這些聲明的義務。
During this call, we will present both GAAP and non-GAAP financial measures. Our GAAP results and GAAP to non-GAAP reconciliations can be found in our earnings press release and the investor slide deck found on our IR website, investor.chegg.com. We also recommend you review the investor data sheet, which is also posted on our IR website.
在本次電話會議中,我們將介紹 GAAP 和非 GAAP 財務指標。我們的 GAAP 業績以及 GAAP 與非 GAAP 調整表可在我們的收益新聞稿和投資者關係網站 Investor.chegg.com 上找到的投資者幻燈片中找到。我們也建議您查看投資者資料表,該資料表也發佈在我們的投資者關係網站上。
Now I will turn the call over to Nathan.
現在我將把電話轉給內森。
Nathan Schultz - Chief Operating Officer
Nathan Schultz - Chief Operating Officer
Thank you, Tracey. Hello, everyone, and thank you for joining Czech's third quarter earnings call. I'll start today by walking you through our Q3 results and then discuss important shifts in our competitive landscape and what they mean for our business going forward.
謝謝你,特蕾西。大家好,感謝您參加捷克第三季財報電話會議。今天,我將首先向您介紹我們第三季的業績,然後討論我們競爭格局的重要轉變以及它們對我們未來業務的意義。
In Q3, while the global education industry continues to experience tremendous change, we have shown early progress against strategic plan we outlined in June. As a result of this work, in Q3, we delivered better-than-expected revenue of $137 million and $22 million in adjusted EBITDA.
第三季度,雖然全球教育產業持續經歷巨大變化,但我們已經按照 6 月制定的策略計畫取得了初步進展。透過這項工作,我們在第三季實現了優於預期的 1.37 億美元營收和 2,200 萬美元調整後 EBITDA。
Engagement remained high with a number of questions asked in the quarter, up 79% year-over-year and our Q3 Chegg Study and Chegg study pack, monthly retention rate increased 30 basis points year-over-year. However, technology shifts have created headwinds for our industry and Chegg's business specifically.
本季提出的許多問題的參與度仍然很高,年增 79%,而且我們的第三季 Chegg 研究和 Chegg 研究包的月保留率同比增長了 30 個基點。然而,技術變革為我們的行業,特別是 Chegg 的業務帶來了阻力。
Recent advancements in the AI search experience and the adoption of free and paid generative AI services by students have resulted in challenges for Chegg. These factors are adversely affecting our business outlook and require us to refocus and adjust the size of our business. Even in the Phase 2 diversity, there continues to be a large market of students looking for high-quality, proven learning experience that Chegg provides.
最近人工智慧搜尋體驗的進步以及學生對免費和付費生成人工智慧服務的採用給 Chegg 帶來了挑戰。這些因素對我們的業務前景產生不利影響,並要求我們重新關注和調整業務規模。即使在第二階段的多樣性中,仍然有大量的學生尋求 Chegg 提供的高品質、經過驗證的學習體驗。
We continue to enthusiastically serve this audience, and I remain optimistic in the outlook for us to extend our brand, individualize our products and weather these challenges. The first impact I'd like to discuss is Google's broad rollout of its AI overviews, search experience, or AIO, which displays AI-generated content at the top of the search results page.
我們將繼續熱情地為這些受眾提供服務,我對我們擴展品牌、個人化產品並應對這些挑戰的前景保持樂觀。我想討論的第一個影響是谷歌廣泛推出其人工智慧概述、搜尋體驗或 AIO,它在搜尋結果頁面的頂部顯示人工智慧生成的內容。
This experience keep users on Google search results page instead of leaving them on to third-party sites such as Chegg. This rollout has been rapid, and while we've been monitoring the development of AIO all year, it was not until mid-August that the search experience significantly expanded.
這種體驗可以讓使用者留在 Google 搜尋結果頁面上,而不是將他們留在 Chegg 等第三方網站上。這次推出速度很快,雖然我們全年都在關注 AIO 的發展,但直到 8 月中旬搜尋體驗才顯著擴展。
It's our belief that the prevalence of AIO will only continue to increase and that Google and an attempt to maintain market share and shifting from being a search origination point to the destination, disintermediating content sites like check.
我們相信,AIO 的普及只會繼續增加,谷歌和試圖保持市場份額,並從搜尋起點轉向目的地,使 check 等內容網站脫媒。
Second, across our industry, there has been a continued increase in the adoption of free and paid generative AI products. This has been widely reported and substantiated in the industry research, students are increasingly turning to generative AI for academic support to homeworking exams.
其次,在我們的產業中,免費和付費產生人工智慧產品的採用持續增加。這已在行業研究中得到廣泛報導和證實,學生越來越多地轉向生成式人工智慧來為家庭作業考試提供學術支援。
This issue impacts the education ecosystem at large, including universities and education technology companies broadly were sidings generative AI products like ChatGPT, a strong alternative to very specialized solutions for education such as Chegg.
這個問題影響了整個教育生態系統,包括大學和教育科技公司,廣泛支援 ChatGPT 等生成式人工智慧產品,這是 Chegg 等非常專業的教育解決方案的有力替代品。
These factors, the speed and scale of Google AIOs rollout on seed adoption of generative AI products have negatively impacted our industry and our business. We have seen a sharp decline in overall traffic and therefore, a decline in our outlook on revenue.
這些因素、Google AIO 在產生人工智慧產品種子採用方面的推出速度和規模,對我們的產業和業務產生了負面影響。我們發現整體流量急劇下降,因此我們對收入的前景也有所下降。
Global nonsubscriber traffic to Chegg declined year-over-year, 8% in Q2, 19% in Q3, and we exited Q3 with trends looking even more unfavorable and negative 37% year-over-year for the month of October. We've taken all this into account and consequently, we do not expect to meet our 2025 goals of 30% adjusted EBITDA margin and $100 million in free cash flow.
Chegg 的全球非訂戶流量較去年同期下降,第二季下降 8%,第三季下降 19%,第三季結束趨勢看起來更加不利,10 月年減 37%。我們已考慮到所有這些因素,因此,我們預計無法實現 2025 年調整後 EBITDA 利潤率 30% 和自由現金流 1 億美元的目標。
Earlier this year, we undertook a strategic restructuring based on the environment in which we are operating. Since then, these new factors have come into play with immense speed and impact. As a result, we are undertaking an additional restructuring to further manage costs and align with the market. Effective immediately, we are initiating a broad restructuring that will impact all groups across the company, where we will reduce headcount by an additional 21%.
今年早些時候,我們根據經營環境進行了策略重組。從那時起,這些新因素以巨大的速度和影響力發揮作用。因此,我們正在進行額外的重組,以進一步管理成本並與市場保持一致。我們正在啟動廣泛的重組,該重組將立即生效,這將影響公司的所有部門,我們將額外減少 21% 的員工人數。
We anticipate that these actions, along with additional operating expense savings will result in an annualized non-GAAP cost savings of $60 million to $70 million in 2025. The cost savings from the restructuring announced in June, coupled with the restructuring announced today will result in a combined non-GAAP savings of $100 million to $120 million in 2025.
我們預計,這些行動以及額外的營運費用節省將在 2025 年帶來 6,000 萬至 7,000 萬美元的年度非 GAAP 成本節省。年,非GAAP 合計節省1 億至1.2 億美元。
Even with this, we remain optimistic that there is an audience for Chegg. While it's clear that some students will favor generative AI options, we believe our sale is a large market of students who care about learning and are seeking products that improve their competency and outcomes.
即便如此,我們仍然樂觀地認為 Chegg 有觀眾。雖然很明顯一些學生會青睞生成式人工智慧選項,但我們相信我們的銷售是一個龐大的學生市場,這些學生關心學習並正在尋求能夠提高他們的能力和成果的產品。
In an August 2024 point-data study, we found that over 75% of high school and college students in North America show a high to medium willingness to pay for online educational tools if they significantly improve academic performance.
在2024 年8 月的一項點數據研究中,我們發現,如果北美的高中生和大學生能顯著提高學習成績,超過75% 的高中生和大學生表現出高到中等的購買在線教育工具的意願。
Therefore, we believe there continues to be assumed audience that's looking for high-quality content and proven learning expertise. This is what differentiates Chegg from other generative AI tools today and why millions of learners depend on Chegg to provide meaningful early experiences with the highest quality content possible.
因此,我們相信仍然有假設的受眾正在尋找高品質的內容和經過驗證的學習專業知識。這就是 Chegg 與當今其他生成式 AI 工具的區別,也是數百萬學習者依賴 Chegg 提供有意義的早期體驗和盡可能高品質的內容的原因。
15 years of deep expertise in understanding students, applying advanced learning science to subjects and topic students learn, providing an archive of 132 million high-quality solutions and human support output that has created a deep trust and awareness to Chegg. That's why students continue to come directly to Chegg even as competitive environments evolve.
15 年在了解學生、將先進學習科學應用於學生學習的科目和主題方面擁有深厚的專業知識,提供了包含1.32 億個高品質解決方案和人力支援輸出的檔案,這讓Chegg 建立了深厚的信任和認識。這就是為什麼即使競爭環境不斷變化,學生仍繼續直接來到 Chegg。
We've taken steps towards the strategic plan we laid out in June. We remain committed to developing a verticalized and individualized experience for education and support students throughout the entire learning journey, starting with academic support and eventually functional support. Let me acknowledge the progress we have made on our strategic plan in the third quarter.
我們已經採取措施實現六月制定的策略計畫。我們仍然致力於為教育開發垂直化和個性化的體驗,並在整個學習過程中為學生提供支持,從學術支持到最終的功能支持。讓我承認我們在第三季的戰略計劃方面取得的進展。
We launched our small step Big Win brand marketing campaign, which is showing early signs of progress with year-over-year improvements and conversion rate across many of our paid marketing channels. We introduced a content quality and satisfaction guarantee, differentiating our service against generative AI and building trust and loyalty with subscribers.
我們推出了「小步大贏」品牌行銷活動,該活動已顯示出早期進展跡象,我們的許多付費行銷管道的轉換率均逐年提高。我們引入了內容品質和滿意度保證,使我們的服務與生成式人工智慧區分開來,並與訂閱者建立了信任和忠誠度。
While it's still early, it is driving a lift in new subscriber conversion rate. We implemented an AI arena that allows us to evaluate, introduce new frontier AI models in real time to deliver the most accurate solutions for students and integrate AI into the full learning journey.
儘管現在還為時過早,但它正在推動新訂戶轉換率的提升。我們實現了一個人工智慧競技場,使我們能夠即時評估、引入新的前沿人工智慧模型,為學生提供最準確的解決方案,並將人工智慧融入整個學習旅程。
We upgraded our Q&A experience to align with our drive towards providing an individualized and adaptive learning solution. This effort has already shown an improvement in user engagement retention. We launched upon discount as well as an extension on Chrome to reach students where they're already spending time.
我們升級了問答體驗,以配合我們提供個人化和適應性學習解決方案的努力。這項工作已經顯示出用戶參與度的改善。我們推出了折扣以及 Chrome 上的擴展,以吸引學生已經花時間的地方。
These efforts connect study activities across sites, engage them with our products and create new pathways for product-driven growth, which we expect will reduce our reliance on SEO. We moved to a new vendor-based commerce platform, which will reduce our costs, provide flexibility and allow us to move faster as we continue to evolve our pricing and packaging programs.
這些努力將跨站點的研究活動聯繫起來,讓它們與我們的產品互動,並為產品驅動的成長創造新的途徑,我們預計這將減少我們對 SEO 的依賴。我們轉向了一個新的基於供應商的商務平台,這將降低我們的成本,提供靈活性,並使我們能夠在不斷發展定價和包裝計劃的過程中更快地採取行動。
And finally, we launched 4 direct institutional partnerships, providing access to Chegg study paid for by the institutional partner. These pilots allow us to gather valuable insights on how Chegg can enhance classroom learning supporting our goal of diversifying our customer acquisition and revenue streams while strengthening Chegg's role in improving student learning outcomes. As we head into the spring semester, you will continue to see our commitment to building and generating momentum with our brand traffic and product capabilities.
最後,我們啟動了 4 個直接機構合作夥伴關係,提供由機構合作夥伴付費的 Chegg 研究的存取權。這些試點使我們能夠收集關於 Chegg 如何增強課堂學習的寶貴見解,支持我們實現客戶獲取和收入來源多元化的目標,同時加強 Chegg 在提高學生學習成果方面的作用。當我們進入春季學期時,您將繼續看到我們致力於透過我們的品牌流量和產品能力建立和產生動力。
We will continue to raise brand awareness with a new spring brand campaign. Our creative strategy built on Chegg's long legacy of empowering students and our unique caring approach. The plan will activate across the full funnel, which we believe will bring new users in create strong consideration in connection and ultimately drives emerging.
我們將繼續透過新的春季品牌活動來提高品牌知名度。我們的創意策略建立在 Chegg 賦予學生權力的悠久傳統和我們獨特的關懷方法的基礎上。該計劃將在整個管道中激活,我們相信這將使新用戶產生強烈的聯繫考慮,並最終推動新興市場。
Based on what we learned this fall from the small steps Big Wins program, we believe this strategy will bring both audience expansion and acquisition efficiency. On the product front, we will continue delivering individualized learning solutions, specifically focusing on expanding into two of the most highly relevant use cases, practice and solution comparison, due to durable needs and corollary behaviors and support learning.
根據我們今年秋天從小步驟大勝利計畫中了解到的情況,我們相信這項策略將帶來受眾擴展和獲取效率。在產品方面,由於持久的需求和必然的行為以及支援學習,我們將繼續提供個人化的學習解決方案,特別注重擴展到兩個最相關的用例、實踐和解決方案比較。
While we acknowledge the significance of the headwinds we covered earlier, Chegg has a deep legacy of serving students, and we believe our brand and product experiences are reselling it. We remain optimistic and we'll continue to be there for students who have grown to rely on us.
雖然我們承認之前提到的不利因素的重要性,但 Chegg 擁有為學生服務的深厚傳統,我們相信我們的品牌和產品體驗正在轉賣它。我們保持樂觀,並將繼續為那些逐漸依賴我們的學生提供幫助。
And as you've heard, we've already taken steps to strengthen our experience and increase efficiencies across the business. This is a multiyear plan and will require patients, and we'll continue to manage our expenses prudently as the competitive landscape evolves.
正如您所聽說的,我們已經採取措施來增強我們的經驗並提高整個企業的效率。這是一個多年計劃,需要患者,隨著競爭格局的發展,我們將繼續謹慎管理我們的開支。
We will keep focused on doing the right things for our investors, our team and students and the students we serve. Before I end, I want to thank our employees around the world for their hard work and dedication. Their efforts and talent have helped support students and bring learning to life. And while this is a trying time for us all, I'm confident we will get through it.
我們將繼續專注於為我們的投資者、我們的團隊、學生以及我們所服務的學生做正確的事情。在結束之前,我要感謝我們世界各地的員工的辛勤工作和奉獻精神。他們的努力和才華幫助支持學生並將學習變為現實。雖然這對我們所有人來說都是一段艱難的時期,但我相信我們會度過難關。
With that, I'll turn it over to Dave.
有了這個,我會把它交給戴夫。
David Longo - Chief Financial Officer, Principal Financial Officer, and Treasurer
David Longo - Chief Financial Officer, Principal Financial Officer, and Treasurer
Thank you, Nathan, and good afternoon. Today, I will present our financial performance for the third quarter of 2024 and the company's outlook for Q4.
謝謝你,內森,下午好。今天,我將介紹我們 2024 年第三季的財務表現以及公司對第四季的展望。
We delivered a solid third quarter. During the quarter, we remain focused on executing our strategic plan to deliver our AI-driven experience to students around the world while we continue to prudently manage our expenses. We exceeded our Q3 guidance on both revenue and adjusted EBITDA and our balance sheet remains healthy.
我們第三季業績表現強勁。在本季度,我們仍然專注於執行我們的策略計劃,為世界各地的學生提供人工智慧驅動的體驗,同時我們繼續謹慎管理我們的費用。我們的收入和調整後 EBITDA 均超出了第三季度的指導,並且我們的資產負債表保持健康。
In the third quarter, total revenue was $137 million, down 13% year-over-year including subscription services revenue of $120 million, which was down 14% year-over-year. We had 3.8 million subscribers in the quarter, representing a decline of 13%. Subscription services ARPU was down 2% year over year, a 1 point improvement from Q2 2024.
第三季總營收為1.37億美元,年減13%,其中訂閱服務營收為1.2億美元,較去年同期下降14%。本季我們的訂戶數為 380 萬,下降了 13%。訂閱服務 ARPU 年減 2%,較 2024 年第二季提高 1 個百分點。
Overall, monthly retention for Chegg Study and Study Pack remained strong and was up 30 basis points year over year. Still and other revenue was $17 million, a decrease of 6% year over year. And we delivered adjusted EBITDA of $22 million, which represented a margin of 16%.
整體而言,Chegg Study 和 Study Pack 的月度留存率依然強勁,較去年同期成長 30 個基點。蒸餾等收入為 1700 萬美元,年減 6%。我們的調整後 EBITDA 為 2,200 萬美元,利潤率為 16%。
We had two notable items this quarter. First, we recorded an impairment charge against our goodwill, as a result of continued industry pressure and declines in our market capitalization and as required by accounting rules, we completed an impairment test on our goodwill, which resulted in a $196 million noncash impairment charge that was excluded from our Q3 adjusted EBITDA.
本季我們有兩個值得注意的項目。首先,由於持續的行業壓力和我們的市值下降,我們對商譽提列了減值準備,根據會計準則的要求,我們完成了商譽減值測試,結果產生了1.96 億美元的非現金減值準備,被排除在我們第三季調整後的 EBITDA 之外。
Second, we reached a settlement agreement to resolve the lever that class action securities lawsuit. We recorded $55 million for the estimated contingent liability for the loss, along with a $55 million receivable for the insurance proceeds we expect to see. These amounts had no impact on our Q3 adjusted EBITDA.
其次,我們達成和解協議,以解決證券集體訴訟的槓桿。我們記錄了 5500 萬美元的損失估計或有負債,以及我們預期看到的保險收益的 5500 萬美元應收帳款。這些金額對我們第三季調整後的 EBITDA 沒有影響。
While we strongly disagree with the premise of the case and deny all allegations of wrongdoing. The decision to settle the lawsuit was driven by the cost and burden of ongoing protracted class action litigation and the monetary costs of defending the case.
儘管我們強烈不同意該案的前提,並否認所有不當行為的指控。和解訴訟的決定是由正在進行的曠日持久的集體訴訟的成本和負擔以及辯護案件的金錢成本所推動的。
We are happy to have this matter result. Free cash flow was $24 million in the third quarter. Capital expenditures were $15.8 million in the quarter, down 32% year-over-year, of which $10 million were content costs. As we harness the power of AI, CapEx content costs were down 28% year over year, while the number of questions asked increased 79%.
我們很高興這件事有結果。第三季自由現金流為 2,400 萬美元。本季資本支出為 1,580 萬美元,年減 32%,其中內容成本為 1,000 萬美元。當我們利用人工智慧的力量時,資本支出內容成本比去年同期下降了 28%,而提出的問題數量增加了 79%。
Looking at the balance sheet. We ended the quarter with cash and investments of $631 million and a net cash balance of $30 million. Today, we announced that our Board of Directors has authorized an increase of $300 million as part of our securities repurchase program. The program will allow us to buy back our convertible notes and/or common stock. Chegg had approximately $3.7 million remaining from its previously announced program.
看資產負債表。本季結束時,我們的現金和投資為 6.31 億美元,淨現金餘額為 3,000 萬美元。今天,我們宣布董事會已授權增加 3 億美元,作為我們證券回購計畫的一部分。該計劃將允許我們回購我們的可轉換票據和/或普通股。 Chegg 先前宣布的計劃還剩下約 370 萬美元。
As Nathan discussed earlier, we are executing a restructuring plan to better align our cost structure with recent industry challenges and the negative impact on our business. While these difficult decisions are essential for Chegg's future, we recognize the unfortunate impact they may have on many of our employees and their families.
正如內森之前所討論的,我們正在執行一項重組計劃,以便更好地調整我們的成本結構,以適應最近的行業挑戰以及對我們業務的負面影響。雖然這些艱難的決定對 Chegg 的未來至關重要,但我們認識到它們可能對我們的許多員工及其家人產生不幸的影響。
Our restructuring will impact 319 employees or approximately 21% of the company. In 2025, the company expects to realize non-GAAP expense savings of $60 million to $70 million from these employee departures, real estate savings as well as other cost rationalizations.
我們的重組將影響 319 名員工,約占公司員工的 21%。到 2025 年,該公司預計透過員工離職、房地產節省以及其他成本合理化,實現非 GAAP 費用節省 6,000 萬至 7,000 萬美元。
Chegg expects to incur a $22 million to $26 million charge related to the restructuring. Of this charge, $18 million to $22 million will be incurred in cash, representing mostly severance payments with the remaining amount representing noncash charges.
Chegg 預計將承擔與重組相關的 2,200 萬至 2,600 萬美元費用。其中,1,800 萬至 2,200 萬美元將以現金支付,其中大部分為遣散費,其餘金額為非現金費用。
We expect that a substantial portion of the cash and noncash charges will be incurred in the fourth quarter. We anticipate these activities and substantially all charges will be completed by June 30, 2025. The cost savings from the restructuring announced in June, coupled with the restructuring announced today will result in a combined non-GAAP savings of $100 million to $120 million in 2025.
我們預計大部分現金和非現金費用將在第四季度產生。我們預計這些活動和幾乎所有費用將在2025 年6 月30 日之前完成。億美元。
Moving on to Q4 guidance. We expect total revenue between $141 million and $143 million, with subscription services revenue between $126 million and $128 million. Gross margin to be in the range of 67% to 68% and adjusted EBITDA between $32 million and $34 million.
接下來是第四季的指導。我們預計總收入在 1.41 億美元到 1.43 億美元之間,其中訂閱服務收入在 1.26 億美元到 1.28 億美元之間。毛利率在 67% 至 68% 之間,調整後 EBITDA 在 3,200 萬美元至 3,400 萬美元之間。
In closing, while our business outlook has significantly softened versus our prior expectations, and these numbers are not where we want them to be. Like many companies in the ad tech space, we are dealing with the challenges of a dynamically changing AI landscape.
最後,雖然我們的業務前景與我們先前的預期相比明顯疲軟,但這些數字並未達到我們想要的水平。與廣告科技領域的許多公司一樣,我們正在應對動態變化的人工智慧環境的挑戰。
We are working to expand our best-in-class verticalized experience for students focused on improving their outcomes. However, it will take time to adjust to the new opportunity and see the benefits in our business results. In the meantime, we are committed to maintaining transparency about the industry and our business trends.
我們正在努力為學生擴展一流的垂直體驗,專注於提高他們的學習成果。然而,我們需要時間來適應新的機會並看到我們業務成果所帶來的好處。同時,我們致力於維持行業和業務趨勢的透明度。
With that, I will turn the call over to the operator for your questions.
這樣,我會將電話轉給接線員詢問您的問題。
Operator
Operator
(Operator Instructions) Eric Sheridan, Goldman Sachs.
(操作員指示)Eric Sheridan,高盛。
Eric Sheridan - Analyst
Eric Sheridan - Analyst
Thanks so much for taking the question. When you look out to not just Q4, but over the medium term, and you're trying to think about what are the key investments that have to be made in your longer-term initiatives when balanced against trying to reduce the overall cost structure of the company.
非常感謝您提出問題。當您不僅著眼於第四季度,而且還著眼於中期時,您會嘗試考慮在長期計劃中必須進行哪些關鍵投資,同時與嘗試降低整體成本結構進行權衡。
Can you talk a little bit about striking that balance with an emphasis on what you see as some of the most critical investments that need to be made not abandon any of the longer-term growth dynamics against some of the near-term headwinds you might be facing. Thanks so much.
您能否談談如何實現這種平衡,重點關注您認為需要進行的一些最關鍵的投資,不要放棄任何長期成長動力來應對近期可能遇到的不利因素面對。非常感謝。
Nathan Schultz - Chief Operating Officer
Nathan Schultz - Chief Operating Officer
Thank you, Eric, for the question. This is Nathan. I'm happy to answer it and happy to talk more about the differentiation that we're going to be building into our product I want to go back to our shareholder letter we rolled out in June of this year.
謝謝埃里克提出的問題。這是內森。我很高興回答這個問題,也很高興更多地談論我們將在產品中構建的差異化。
We still very much believe that, that is a winning strategy. And as I mentioned in that letter and on subsequent calls that the plans that we have to support students both academically and eventually functionally is going to be a multiyear journey.
我們仍然非常相信,這是一個制勝策略。正如我在那封信和隨後的電話中提到的,我們在學術上和最終在功能上支持學生的計劃將是一個多年的旅程。
-- our core efforts and even with the reduction, it's really just a refocusing of our -- of where we're going to put our priorities, we're going to work on first and second and third. And they are still very much around creating points of differentiation against generic free AI products.
- 我們的核心努力,即使減少了,這實際上只是我們的重點重新調整 - 我們將把優先事項放在哪裡,我們將在第一、第二和第三方面開展工作。他們仍然致力於創造與通用免費人工智慧產品不同的差異化點。
You saw us already do some of this with the satisfaction guarantee -- content satisfaction guarantee that we rolled out this August that created some elbow room as we started to really stand behind the content and learning experiences that we supply.
您看到我們已經透過滿意度保證做了一些工作——我們在今年八月推出了內容滿意度保證,這為我們開始真正支持我們提供的內容和學習體驗創造了一些迴旋餘地。
You saw that with the brand campaign and small steps, Big Wins, which we're going to continue to build on, which created some really nice year-over-year improvements in click-through rate and conversion rate across our paid marketing channels.
您看到,透過品牌活動和小步驟,大勝利,我們將繼續在此基礎上繼續發展,這在我們的付費行銷管道的點擊率和轉換率方面創造了一些非常好的逐年改善。
As we go into the winter semester, you'll continue to see the product evolve, particularly in the areas of practice and solution comparison. These are two high-value programs that are high-value use cases we know students are leading into and truly help us to build into that personalized learning journey that we know students are willing to pay for.
當我們進入冬季學期時,您將繼續看到產品的發展,特別是在實踐和解決方案比較領域。這是兩個高價值的項目,我們知道學生正在進入這些高價值的用例,並真正幫助我們建立我們知道學生願意付費的個人化學習旅程。
Eric Sheridan - Analyst
Eric Sheridan - Analyst
Thanks very much.
非常感謝。
Nathan Schultz - Chief Operating Officer
Nathan Schultz - Chief Operating Officer
Appreciate the question, Eric.
感謝這個問題,艾瑞克。
Operator
Operator
Ryan MacDonald, Needham & Company.
瑞安麥克唐納,李約瑟公司。
Ryan MacDonald - Analyst
Ryan MacDonald - Analyst
Hi. Thanks for taking my questions. Maybe just focusing on the Google update, obviously, quite a bit of a change there. As you've looked at trying to find new channels to market to the student population. Can you, one, just talk about the -- how much of the traffic came from Google that you're going to have to replace moving forward? And then what channels thus far as we've gone into the fall semester as you started to test out new channels, maybe you're seeing the most success or giving you the best chance of of maybe replicating or refilling the bucket that you might lose from the Google side?
你好。感謝您回答我的問題。也許只是關注谷歌的更新,顯然,那裡發生了很大的變化。正如您所看到的,試圖尋找新的管道向學生群體進行行銷。您能不能談談——有多少流量來自谷歌,您將不得不取代它繼續前進?然後,到目前為止,當您開始測試新管道時,我們進入秋季學期的管道是什麼,也許您看到了最大的成功,或者給了您最好的機會,也許可以複製或重新填充您可能失去的水桶來自谷歌方面?
Nathan Schultz - Chief Operating Officer
Nathan Schultz - Chief Operating Officer
I appreciate the question, Ryan. Surely, I want to make sure I do not leave today without explaining AIO reviews a bit more and making sure you understand that just because it is on the page, it does not mean we lose all of the SEO traffic that has historically come to us. And it's just that our organic listings are now below the AIO review that Google is presenting the user with -- as we see our -- as with any company, where SEO is a factor, it is not a factor in generating customers. It is not the only one for us.
我很欣賞這個問題,瑞安。當然,我想確保我今天離開時不會對 AIO 評論進行更多解釋,並確保您了解僅僅因為它在頁面上,並不意味著我們會失去歷史上所有來到我們這裡的 SEO 流量。只是我們的自然清單現在低於 Google 向用戶展示的 AIO 評論 - 正如我們所看到的 - 與任何公司一樣,SEO 是一個因素,但它不是產生客戶的因素。這對我們來說並不是唯一的。
We had very strong direct channel, and we have been stepping out broadly over the last 18 months with the work we've done on TikTok to really become a significant educational partner there. You heard in our prepared remarks, we're very excited about the launch of the app on Discord and the Chrome extension really trying to put Chegg integrated into the student workflow on surfaces where the students already are and we can introduce our products to them there. We can actually give them pseudo experiences that drive some new product-driven growth right from those channels.
我們擁有非常強大的直接管道,在過去 18 個月裡,我們在 TikTok 上所做的工作已經廣泛開展,真正成為那裡重要的教育合作夥伴。您在我們準備好的發言中聽到,我們對在Discord 上推出該應用程式感到非常興奮,Chrome 擴充功能確實試圖將Chegg 整合到學生已有的表面上的學生工作流程中,我們可以在那裡向他們介紹我們的產品。我們實際上可以為他們提供偽體驗,從而直接從這些管道推動一些新產品驅動的成長。
And so we're going to continue to have a a holistic marketing strategy across multiple funnels. We're going to continue to see us push that out in our brand campaign coming this winter, and we're going to continue to find ways to attract the strongest audience we possibly can.
因此,我們將繼續採用跨多個管道的整體行銷策略。我們將繼續看到我們在今年冬天的品牌活動中推出這一點,我們將繼續尋找方法來盡可能吸引最強大的受眾。
Ryan MacDonald - Analyst
Ryan MacDonald - Analyst
Appreciate the color on that, Nathan. Maybe just as a follow-up. As you look across the subscriber base today and student cohorts, what segment of the student population do you feel like you're having the most traction? And maybe perhaps what areas do you feel like you need to do incremental work in terms of driving, let's call it, brand awareness in conversion. Thanks.
欣賞它的顏色,內森。也許只是作為後續。當您縱觀當今的訂戶群和學生群體時,您認為學生群體中的哪一部分最具吸引力?也許您覺得您需要在哪些領域進行漸進式工作來推動(我們稱之為)轉換中的品牌知名度。謝謝。
Nathan Schultz - Chief Operating Officer
Nathan Schultz - Chief Operating Officer
Yeah, I love that question that question because I think one of the viewpoints people have with students as they're a little bit one dimensional and they're not, frankly, a student throughout a semester is going to need sometimes to really dive deep into becoming confident and competent in subject and there are times where they're just going to turn to generic AI to get an answer. We are targeting that student.
是的,我喜歡這個問題,因為我認為人們對學生的看法之一,因為他們有點一維,坦白說,他們不是一個整個學期的學生,有時需要真正深入研究變得對學科充滿信心和能力,有時他們會轉向通用人工智慧來獲得答案。我們的目標是那位學生。
And at the moment when that student needs to really learn from our data, we can clearly see -- we've said in our prepared remarks, more than 75% of high school -- US high school and college students are willing to pay for a service that service is really designed to produce better outcomes and confidence. And so that's what we're geared towards around all of our brand campaigns of really expressing the students when do you use Chegg, how do you use Chegg?
當學生需要真正從我們的數據中學習時,我們可以清楚地看到——我們在準備好的發言中已經說過,超過 75% 的高中生——美國高中生和大學生願意付費服務的真正目的是產生更好的結果和信心。這就是我們所有品牌活動的目標,即真正向學生表達您何時使用 Chegg、如何使用 Chegg?
And we know that students are going to use a basket of services when we want to -- so when they're really going for that learning and really going to get prepared for those exams, you're we want them to choose Chegg, and that's why you see our product going into that more practice area, that solution comparison area and not just the next word and that next solution.
我們知道,當我們想要時,學生會使用一攬子服務 - 因此,當他們真正想要學習並真正準備這些考試時,我們希望他們選擇 Chegg,並且這就是為什麼您會看到我們的產品進入更多實踐領域、解決方案比較領域,而不僅僅是下一個單字和下一個解決方案。
Operator
Operator
Alex Furman, Craig Hallam Capital Group.
亞歷克斯弗曼,克雷格哈勒姆資本集團。
Alex Fuhrman - Analyst
Alex Fuhrman - Analyst
Hey, guys. Thanks for taking my question. If I heard correctly in your prepared remarks, it sounds like the number of questions asked through Chegg was up pretty substantially versus last year. Just curious how you really reconcile how subscribers are down so much and yet it seems like just by the metric of questions asked, engagement is actually quite strong and wondering if there's any better way to take advantage of that and monetize your core users going forward?
嘿,夥計們。感謝您提出我的問題。如果我在您準備好的發言中沒有聽錯的話,聽起來透過 Chegg 提出的問題數量比去年大幅增加。只是好奇你如何真正協調訂閱者數量下降如此之多,但似乎僅通過提出的問題來衡量,參與度實際上相當高,並且想知道是否有更好的方法來利用這一點並在未來通過你的核心用戶貨幣化?
Nathan Schultz - Chief Operating Officer
Nathan Schultz - Chief Operating Officer
That's a great question. Appreciate it. And you're right. questions were up 79% year-over-year in Q3 and we continue to -- this is a trend that we can see continue as we invest in that Q&A experience that I talked about in the prepared remarks, us really revamping again, that Q&A experience as we want to pivoted away from being just about that solution or that next word, which we don't can get elsewhere to really a learning experience and taking that student, which may start with a question, but lead them into a flash card, leave them into the bookmarking the content for a study guide, lead them into prompting them into another question. And clearly, from the engagement you're seeing, that's working. Right?
這是一個很好的問題。欣賞它。你是對的。第三季的問題同比增長了79%,我們繼續——隨著我們對我在準備好的發言中談到的問答體驗進行投資,我們可以看到這種趨勢仍在繼續,我們真的再次改進了問答體驗我們希望從解決方案或下一個單字(我們在其他地方無法獲得這些)轉變為真正的學習體驗,並帶領學生(可能以問題開始,但引導他們進入閃存卡) ,讓他們為學習指南的內容會加書籤,引導他們提示他們提出另一個問題。顯然,從您所看到的參與度來看,這是有效的。正確的?
What we've got to do now and which is why I was very encouraged with the early trends of the small-step Big Wins campaign. If we got to amplify that in our winter branding program. and really get our students who love us really behind us and really as vocal advocates for us.
我們現在要做的就是為什麼我對「小步大贏」活動的早期趨勢感到非常鼓舞。如果我們要在冬季品牌計劃中放大這一點。真正讓那些真正愛我們的學生支持我們,真正成為我們的代言人。
Alex Fuhrman - Analyst
Alex Fuhrman - Analyst
Okay. That's really helpful. Thank you very much.
好的。這真的很有幫助。非常感謝。
Nathan Schultz - Chief Operating Officer
Nathan Schultz - Chief Operating Officer
Appreciate the question.
感謝這個問題。
Operator
Operator
Jeff Silber, BMO Capital Markets.
Jeff Silber,BMO 資本市場。
Ryan Bohren - Analyst
Ryan Bohren - Analyst
Hey. This is Ryan on for Jeff. Similar to the last question. I was just wondering on the retention rate, it seems like your retention is trending reasonably well and you're having some difficulty getting the new subs in the door because of the new AI enhancements. Just wondering if you could give any thoughts on that. And where you're losing in the funnel as well. Thank you.
嘿。這是瑞恩替傑夫發言。和上一個問題類似。我只是想知道保留率,看來您的保留趨勢相當不錯,而且由於新的人工智慧增強功能,您在獲得新的潛艇方面遇到了一些困難。只是想知道您是否可以對此提出任何想法。以及你在漏斗中失去的地方。謝謝。
Nathan Schultz - Chief Operating Officer
Nathan Schultz - Chief Operating Officer
I appreciate the question and the retention and the product experience certainly go hand in hand. Again, this is just a moment where there's clearly turbulence in the market around students and when to use certain tools, we're really stepping out and establishing ourselves as the place to come to for learning and for improvements in your confidence and your competency, our brand campaigns are all around that. So when you hit the funnel now on Chegg, it is all about making sure you can understand the trust in our content.
我很欣賞這個問題,保留率和產品體驗肯定是密不可分的。再說一次,現在正是學生市場明顯動蕩的時刻,何時使用某些工具,我們真正走出去,將自己打造為學習、提高信心和能力的地方,我們的品牌活動就是圍繞這一點展開的。因此,當您現在進入 Chegg 頻道時,最重要的是要確保您能夠理解對我們內容的信任。
And so we're going to continue to push on those packaging programs, those opportunities for students to explore our product a bit more before they're immediately hit with the paywalls and really get them into the product versus than just having to opt out if they're truly just looking for an answer, they're going to go somewhere else. We know that and we're going to look to get those students were looking to learn.
因此,我們將繼續推動這些包裝計劃,為學生提供更多探索我們產品的機會,然後他們立即受到付費牆的打擊,並真正讓他們進入產品,而不是僅僅選擇退出他們真的只是在尋找答案,他們會去別的地方。我們知道這一點,我們將努力吸引那些想要學習的學生。
Ryan Bohren - Analyst
Ryan Bohren - Analyst
Great. Thank you very much.
偉大的。非常感謝。
Operator
Operator
Josh Baer, Jefferies.
喬許貝爾,傑弗里斯。
Unidentified Participant
Unidentified Participant
Hi. This is Ryan on for Josh from Morgan Stanley. Just curious if you guys could provide some further details on the softening in nonsubscriber traffic trends through October. I guess just like what are the primary drivers? And with this in mind, what gives you guys confidence that this can stabilize over time? Thank you.
你好。我是摩根士丹利的瑞安 (Ryan) 替補喬希 (Josh)。只是好奇你們是否可以提供有關 10 月非訂閱者流量趨勢疲軟的更多詳細資訊。我想主要驅動因素是什麼?考慮到這一點,是什麼讓你們相信這種情況會隨著時間的推移而穩定下來?謝謝。
Nathan Schultz - Chief Operating Officer
Nathan Schultz - Chief Operating Officer
Ryan, I appreciate the question. And I think you heard some of this in the prepared remarks and really, the softness and the traffic, which therefore, it goes to the subscriber trends, is really a reflection of, in my opinion, the Google AI experience, the Google AI reviews experience is that is now rolled out and pretty pervasive.
瑞安,我很欣賞這個問題。我認為你在準備好的發言中聽到了其中的一些內容,實際上,柔軟度和流量,因此,它涉及訂閱者趨勢,在我看來,這實際上反映了谷歌人工智能的體驗,谷歌人工智能的評論經驗是,現在已經推出並且相當普遍。
Obviously, students are getting -- those are seeking immediate solutions versus trying to dive deeper into the learning and are getting what they need right there on the screen. So that's going to drive obviously, some softness in traffic.
顯然,學生們正在尋求立即解決方案,而不是試圖更深入地學習並在螢幕上獲得他們需要的東西。因此,這顯然會導致流量出現一些疲軟。
What we're doing about it, which is the important part, is making sure we really diversify how we get in front of students and where we get in front of students. So you're seeing that specifically in the Discord app, we've got -- the work we're continuing to do on TikTok and the broad big push we're doing on the brand side, really stepping out there and getting out there students know what Chegg stands for, where we really sit in that comparison set to come, and when to come to us.
我們正在做的事情,這是重要的部分,是確保我們真正多樣化我們在學生面前的方式和方式。所以你會看到,特別是在 Discord 應用程式中,我們在 TikTok 上繼續做的工作以及我們在品牌方面所做的廣泛的大力推動,真正走出去並走出去學生們知道Chegg 代表什麼,我們在即將到來的比較中真正處於什麼位置,以及何時來找我們。
Unidentified Participant
Unidentified Participant
Great. Thank you.
偉大的。謝謝。
Operator
Operator
This concludes our question-and-answer session and concludes our conference call for today. You may disconnect your lines at this time, and we thank you for your participation.
我們的問答環節和今天的電話會議到此結束。此時您可以斷開線路,我們感謝您的參與。
Tracey Ford - Vice President, Investor Relations
Tracey Ford - Vice President, Investor Relations
Goodbye.
再見。