Cullen/Frost Bankers Inc (CFR) 2025 Q2 法說會逐字稿

Greetings, and welcome to Cullen/Frost Bankers Incorporated second quarter 2025 earnings conference call. (Operator Instructions) As a reminder, this conference is being recorded.

您好，歡迎參加 Cullen/Frost Bankers Incorporated 2025 年第二季財報電話會議。（操作員指示）提醒一下，本次會議正在錄音。

It is now my pleasure to introduce A.B. Mendez, Senior Vice President and Director of Investor Relations. Thank you. You may begin.

現在我很高興介紹資深副總裁兼投資者關係總監 A.B. Mendez。謝謝。你可以開始了。

Thanks, Sherri. This afternoon's conference call will be led by Phil Green, Chairman and CEO; and Dan Geddes, Group Executive Vice President and CFO. Before I turn the call over to Phil and Dan, I need to take a moment to address the safe harbor provisions. Some of the remarks made today will constitute forward-looking statements as defined in the Private Securities Litigation Reform Act of 1995 as amended.

謝謝，謝裡。今天下午的電話會議將由董事長兼執行長 Phil Green 和集團執行副總裁兼財務長 Dan Geddes 主持。在我將電話轉給菲爾和丹之前，我需要花點時間來討論安全港條款。今天發表的一些言論將構成《1995 年私人證券訴訟改革法案》修訂版中定義的前瞻性陳述。

We intend such statements to be covered by the safe harbor provisions for forward-looking statements contained in the Private Securities Litigation Reform Act of 1995 as amended. Please see the last page of text in this morning's earnings release for additional information about the risk factors associated with these forward-looking statements.

我們希望此類聲明符合 1995 年《私人證券訴訟改革法案》修訂版中前瞻性聲明的安全港條款。有關這些前瞻性陳述相關的風險因素的更多信息，請參閱今天上午收益報告的最後一頁文字。

If needed, a copy of the release is available on our website or by calling the Investor Relations department at 210-220-5234.

如果需要，您可以在我們的網站上取得新聞稿的副本，也可以致電投資者關係部門：210-220-5234。

At this time I'll turn the call over to Phil.

現在我將把電話轉給菲爾。

Thanks, AB. Good afternoon, everyone, and thanks for joining us. Today we'll review second quarter 2025 results for Cullen/Frost and our Chief Financial Officer and Dan Geddes will provide additional commentary and guidance before we take your questions.

謝謝，AB。大家下午好，感謝大家的收看。今天，我們將回顧 Cullen/Frost 2025 年第二季的業績，我們的財務長和 Dan Geddes 將在回答您的問題之前提供額外的評論和指導。

In the second quarter of 2025, Cullen/Frost earned $155.3 million or $2.39 a share, and that compared with earnings of $143.8 million or $2.21 a share reported in the second quarter last year. A return on average assets and average common equity in the second quarter for 1.22% and 15.64% respectively. And that compares with 1.18% and 17.08% in the same quarter last year.

2025 年第二季度，Cullen/Frost 獲利 1.553 億美元，即每股 2.39 美元，而去年第二季度的獲利為 1.438 億美元，即每股 2.21 美元。第二季平均資產報酬率和平均普通股權益報酬率分別為1.22%和15.64%。相比之下，去年同期分別為 1.18% 和 17.08%。

Average deposits in the second quarter were $41.8 billion an increase of 3.1% over the $40.5 billion in the second quarter last year. Average loans grew to $21.1 billion in the second quarter and increase to 7.2% compared with $19.7 billion in the second quarter of last year.

第二季平均存款為 418 億美元，比去年第二季的 405 億美元成長 3.1%。第二季平均貸款成長至 211 億美元，與去年第二季的 197 億美元相比成長 7.2%。

We continue to see solid results, and it's been driven by the hard work of our Frost Bankers and the extension of our organic growth strategy.

我們繼續看到穩健的業績，這得益於我們的 Frost Bankers 的辛勤工作和我們有機成長策略的延伸。

During the second quarter we achieved the milestone of opening our 200th location. The Pflugerville Financial Center in the Austin region. At that time -- at the time that we started this strategy in late 2018. We had around 130 financial centers. Which means that we've increased that number by more than 50% since that time.

在第二季度，我們實現了開設第 200 家門市的里程碑。奧斯汀地區的普弗拉格維爾金融中心。當時—我們在 2018 年底開始實施這項策略。我們有大約130個金融中心。這意味著自那時起，這一數字已增加了 50% 以上。

And we continue to identify more locations around the state to extend our value for opposition to more customers. At the end of the second quarter, our overall expansion efforts had generated $2.76 billion in deposits. [$2.03] billion in loans. And almost 69,000 new households.

我們將繼續在全州尋找更多地點，以擴大我們對更多客戶的價值。截至第二季末，我們的整體擴張努力已產生 27.6 億美元的存款和 20.3 億美元的貸款。以及近 69,000 個新家庭。

Looking at year over year growth, expansion, average loans and deposits increased $521 million and $544 million respectively, representing growth of 35% and 25%. The expansion now represents 9.6% of company loans and 6.6% of company deposits using average June month to date analysis.

從年成長、擴張來看，平均貸款和存款分別增加了 5.21 億美元和 5.44 億美元，分別成長了 35% 和 25%。根據 6 月迄今的平均分析，此次擴張目前占公司貸款的 9.6% 和公司存款的 6.6%。

As we've mentioned, the successes of our earlier expansion locations are now funding the current expansion effort. And we expect the overall effort will be accreted to earnings in 2026. And as I've said many times, this strategy is both durable and scalable.

正如我們所提到的，我們早期擴張地點的成功正在為當前的擴張工作提供資金。我們預計，到 2026 年，整體努力將轉化為收益。正如我多次說過的，這項策略既持久又可擴展。

Average consumer deposits make up about 46% of our total deposit base, and we continue to see consistently high organic growth. Checking household growth, which is our bellwether measure of customer growth. Increase what we believe to be an industry leading rate of 5.4%.

平均消費者存款約占我們總存款基礎的 46%，我們持續保持較高的有機成長。檢視家庭成長情況，這是我們衡量客戶成長的指標。我們認為該利率將達到行業領先水準的 5.4%。

Consumer deposits continue to strengthen with 3.7% year-over-year growth. And it's encouraging to see a return to steady checking balance growth after a post-pandemic period where growth was weighted towards [CDs].

消費者存款持續成長，年增 3.7%。令人鼓舞的是，在疫情過後，支票餘額恢復了穩定的成長，而疫情期間的成長主要集中在[CD]。

Our consumer real estate loan portfolio, which stands at $3.3 billion in outstandings, has been seeing strong growth from both our second lien home equity products as well as our newer mortgage products. In total, the portfolio grew outstandings by $600 million year-over-year, which is a 22% growth rate.

我們的消費者房地產貸款組合未償還貸款額為 33 億美元，我們的第二留置權房屋淨值產品和較新的抵押貸款產品均實現了強勁增長。總體而言，該投資組合的未償還金額年增 6 億美元，成長率為 22%。

All in all, this balanced organic growth is only possible because of our success in expanding into some of the most dynamic markets in the country and our unwavering institutional commitment to an excellent customer experience. And that commitment hasn't just been in place for the past few years. It's been a key part of our culture for our 157 year history.

總而言之，這種均衡的有機成長之所以能夠實現，是因為我們成功地擴展到了國內一些最具活力的市場，並且堅定不移地致力於提供卓越的客戶體驗。而這項承諾並不是過去幾年才實現的。在我們 157 年的歷史中，它一直是我們文化的重要組成部分。

Looking at our commercial business. Average loan balances grew by $817 million or 4.9% year-over-year. CRE balances grew by 6.8%. Energy balances increased 22%. And [CNI] balances decreased by about 1%.

看看我們的商業業務。平均貸款餘額年增 8.17 億美元，增幅 4.9%。CRE餘額增加了6.8%。能量平衡增加了22%。[CNI]餘額減少了約1%。

Second quarter represented an all-time record for calls. Following our prior record in one of this year. Year-to-date, there's been a 7% increase in calls, putting us on track for the strongest year for calls ever.

第二季的通話量創下了歷史新高。這是我們今年以來的另一個創下紀錄。今年迄今為止，呼叫量已增加了 7%，有望成為有史以來呼叫量最高的一年。

Booked opportunities for the quarter increased 36% following a strong 90 day waited pipeline in Q1. Both opportunities increase for both customers, prospects in both large and core opportunities and across all loan categories.

繼第一季 90 天的強勁等待期之後，本季的預訂機會增加了 36%。對於客戶、大型和核心機會以及所有貸款類別的潛在客戶來說，這兩個機會都會增加。

Losses to pricing decreased 28%. While losses to structured continued to increase, reaching the second highest quarter ever for losses due to structure. And I think this represents the level of competition developing in the market.

定價損失減少了28%。而結構性損失則繼續增加，達到結構性損失有史以來第二高的季度。我認為這代表了市場競爭的水平。

At the end of the day, we added just under $2 billion in new loan commitments for the second quarter, which was 56% more than Q1. And as we said before, the increase was seen across large and core, as well as all loan categories.

最終，我們第二季新增貸款承諾略低於 20 億美元，比第一季成長 56%。正如我們之前所說，大額貸款、核心貸款以及所有貸款類別都出現了成長。

Finally, We recorded 1,060 new commercial relationships in the second quarter, our second highest quarterly total ever, and a 9% increase over the first quarter. About half of our new commercial relationships in the second quarter continue to come from the too big to fail banks.

最後，我們在第二季度記錄了 1,060 個新的商業關係，這是我們有史以來第二高的季度總數，比第一季成長了 9%。我們第二季的新商業關係中約有一半仍來自「大到不能倒」的銀行。

Our overall credit quality remains good by historical standards, with net charge-offs and non-accrual loans both at healthy levels. Non-performing assets declined to $64 million at the end of the second quarter compared with $85 million at year end.

我們的整體信用品質按照歷史標準來看仍然良好，淨沖銷和非應計貸款均處於健康水準。不良資產從去年年底的 8,500 萬美元下降至第二季末的 6,400 萬美元。

Most of this decrease came from a pay down on a CNI revolving line of credit which is currently classified as non-accrual. The quarter end figure represents 30 basis points of period in loans and 12 basis points of total assets. Net charge-offs for the second quarter were $11.2 million compared to $9.7 million last quarter and $9.7 million a year ago.

大部分減少來自 CNI 循環信貸額度的償還，該額度目前被歸類為非應計信貸。季度末數字代表貸款期間 30 個基點和總資產 12 個基點。第二季淨沖銷額為 1,120 萬美元，而上一季為 970 萬美元，去年同期為 970 萬美元。

Annualized net charge-offs for the second quarter represent 21 basis points of average loans. Total problem loans which we define as risk grade 10. Some people call that OAEM or higher total $989 million at the end of the second quarter, up from $889 million at the end of the year.

第二季的年化淨沖銷額相當於平均貸款的 21 個基點。我們將問題貸款總額定義為風險等級 10。有人稱第二季末的 OAEM 或更高總額為 9.89 億美元，高於年底的 8.89 億美元。

Virtually all the increase was related to multi-family loans and the criticized risk grade 10 category for which we expect resolutions to occur in the third and fourth quarters of 2025. With the exception of the risk grade migration that I just mentioned in the multi-family CRE portfolio, which we expected.

幾乎所有的成長都與多戶家庭貸款和受到批評的 10 級風險類別有關，我們預計這些問題將在 2025 年第三季和第四季得到解決。除了我剛才提到的多戶型 CRE 投資組合中的風險等級遷移之外，這是我們預料到的。

Our overall commercial real estate lending portfolio remains stable with steady operating performance across all asset types and acceptable debt service coverage ratios. Our loan to value levels are similar to what we've reported in prior quarters.

我們的整體商業房地產貸款組合保持穩定，所有資產類型的經營業績穩健，債務償還率可接受。我們的貸款價值比與前幾季報告的水平相似。

With that I'll turn it over to Dan.

說完這些，我就把它交給丹。

Thank you, Phil. Let me start off by giving some additional color on our expansion results. As Phil mentioned, we continue to be pleased with the volumes we've been able to achieve. On a year-over-year basis, the expansion represented 37% of total loan growth and 44% of total deposit growth.

謝謝你，菲爾。首先，讓我對我們的擴展結果進行一些補充說明。正如菲爾所提到的，我們對已經取得的成果感到非常滿意。與去年同期相比，這項擴張佔總貸款成長的 37% 和總存款成長的 44%。

Looking at calls for the quarter, the Frost commercial bankers and expansion branches represented 17% of total calls, 11% of customer calls, and 28% of prospect calls. For new commercial relationships, 24% of all new commercial relationships were brought in from the expansion. And when looking at just the expansion regions of Houston, Dallas, and Austin. New commercial relationships represented 37% of the total for those combined regions.

從本季的呼叫情況來看，Frost 商業銀行家和擴展分行佔總呼叫量的 17%、客戶呼叫量的 11% 和潛在呼叫量的 28%。對於新的商業關係，24% 的新商業關係是透過擴張獲得的。僅看休士頓、達拉斯和奧斯汀的擴張區域。新的商業關係佔這些地區總數的 37%。

With regard to book loans in the second quarter, 9.4% of total book loans, or $183 million, were from the expansion, with about 53% of those being core loans. Additionally, loans booked by our bankers at expansion branches this quarter increased 58% on a late quarter basis. Now moving to second quarter financial performance for the company.

就第二季的圖書貸款而言，總圖書貸款的 9.4%（即 1.83 億美元）來自擴展貸款，其中約 53% 為核心貸款。此外，本季我們擴張分行的銀行家預訂的貸款較上一季末增加了 58%。現在來看看公司第二季的財務表現。

Regarding net interest margin, our net interest margin percentage was up 7 basis points to 3.67% from the 3.6% reported last quarter. Our net interest margin percentage was positively impacted primarily by a mixed shift from balances held at the Fed into higher yielding loans and securities, both taxable and non-taxable.

至於淨利差，我們的淨利差百分比從上一季的 3.6% 上升 7 個基點至 3.67%。我們的淨利差百分比受到正面影響，主要原因是聯準會持有的餘額轉向收益較高的貸款和證券（包括應稅和免稅的）。

Looking at our investment portfolio, the total investment portfolio averaged $20.4 billion during the second quarter, up a billion dollars from the previous quarter. Investment purchases during the quarter totaled $857 million consisting of $475 million in agency MBS Securities yielding 5.72% and $378 million in municipal securities, which had a taxable equivalent yield of 5.98% during the quarter, $675 million of treasuries matured, yielding 3.06% and $76 million of municipals rolled off at an average tax equivalent yield of 4.05%.

從我們的投資組合來看，第二季投資組合總額平均為 204 億美元，比上一季增加了 10 億美元。本季的投資購買總額為 8.57 億美元，其中包括 4.75 億美元的機構 MBS 證券（收益率為 5.72%）和 3.78 億美元的市政證券（本季度的應稅等值收益率為 5.98%），6.75 億美元的國債到期，收益率為 3.06%，以及 3.600 萬美元的平均稅收收益率為 3.600 萬美元。

The net unrealized loss on the available for sale portfolio at the end of the quarter was $1.42 billion compared to $1.4 billion reported at the end of the first quarter. The taxable equivalent yield on the total investment portfolio during the quarter was 3.79%, up 16 basis points from the previous quarter.

本季末可供出售投資組合的淨未實現損失為 14.2 億美元，而第一季末報告的淨未實現損失為 14 億美元。本季總投資組合應稅等值收益率為3.79%，較上一季上升16個基點。

The taxable portfolio averaged $13.8 billion up approximately $877 million from the prior quarter, and had a yield of 3.48%, up 19 basis points from the prior quarter. Our tax exempt municipal portfolio averaged $6.6 billion during the second quarter, up $140 million from the first quarter, and had a taxable equivalent yield of 4.48%, up 10 basis points from the prior quarter.

應稅投資組合平均為 138 億美元，比上一季增加約 8.77 億美元，收益率為 3.48%，比上一季增加 19 個基點。我們第二季的免稅市政投資組合平均為 66 億美元，比第一季增加了 1.4 億美元，應稅等值收益率為 4.48%，比上一季增加了 10 個基點。

At the end of the second quarter, approximately 69% of the municipal portfolio was pre-refunded or PSF insured. The duration of the investment portfolio at the end of the second quarter was 5.5 years flat with the first quarter.

截至第二季末，約有 69% 的市政投資組合已預先償還或獲得 PSF 保險。第二季末投資組合久期與第一季持平，為5.5年。

Looking at funding sources. On a linked-quarter basis, average total deposits of $41.76 billion were up $102 million from the previous quarter. The linked quarter increase was primarily driven by interest-bearing accounts. The cost of interest-bearing deposits in the second quarter was 1.93%, down 1 basis points from 1.94% in the first quarter.

查看資金來源。按季度計算，平均總存款為 417.6 億美元，較上一季增加 1.02 億美元。季度環比成長主要由計息帳戶推動。第二季計息存款成本為1.93%，較一季的1.94%下降1個基點。

As a reminder, we tend to see weaker deposit flows in the first half of the year and stronger flows in the back half of the year, and the majority of that seasonality is driven by commercial noninterest-bearing deposits.

提醒一下，我們往往會看到上半年存款流量較弱，下半年存款流量較強，而這種季節性變化主要是由商業無息存款所驅動的。

Customer repos for the second quarter averaged $4.25 billion, up $103 million from the first quarter. The cost of customer repos for the quarter was 3.23%, up 10 basis points from the first quarter. Looking at noninterest income and expense, I'll point out a couple of seasonal items impacting the linked quarter results. Noninterest income, insurance commissions and fees were down $7.2 million. Remember, the first quarter is typically our strongest quarter for group benefit renewals and annual bonus payments received.

第二季顧客回購平均金額為 42.5 億美元，較第一季增加 1.03 億美元。本季顧客回購成本為3.23%，較一季上升10個基點。查看非利息收入和支出，我將指出影響相關季度業績的幾個季節性項目。非利息收入、保險佣金和費用下降了 720 萬美元。請記住，第一季通常是我們收到的團體福利續約和年度獎金支付最強勁的季度。

On the expense side, employee benefits were down $9.3 million. The first quarter was impacted primarily by increased payroll taxes and 401(k) matching expense related to our annual incentive payments that are paid during that quarter. Other expenses were up $5.9 million and were primarily impacted by higher planned advertising and marketing expense during the quarter of $4.2 million.

在支出方面，員工福利減少了 930 萬美元。第一季主要受到工資稅增加以及與該季度支付的年度獎勵金相關的 401(k) 匹配費用的影響。其他費用增加了 590 萬美元，主要受到本季計畫廣告和行銷費用增加 420 萬美元的影響。

Regarding our guidance for full year 2025, our current outlook includes 225 basis point cuts for the Fed funds rate in 2025 with cuts in September and October. Despite the revised rate cuts expectations, we expect net interest income growth for the full year to fall in the range of 6% to 7% compared to our prior guidance of 5% to 7% growth.

關於我們對 2025 年全年的指導，我們目前的展望包括 2025 年聯邦基金利率下調 225 個基點，分別在 9 月和 10 月進行。儘管降息預期有所調整，但我們預計全年淨利息收入成長率將在 6% 至 7% 之間，而我們先前預測的成長率為 5% 至 7%。

For net interest margin, we still expect an improvement of about 12 basis points to 15 basis points over our net interest margin of 3.53% for 2024. This is consistent with our prior guidance. Looking at loans and deposits, we continue to expect full year average loan growth to be in the mid-to-high single digits and expect full year average deposits to be up between 2% and 3%.

對於淨利差，我們仍然預期 2024 年淨利差將在 3.53% 的基礎上提高約 12 個基點至 15 個基點。這與我們先前的指導一致。從貸款和存款來看，我們繼續預計全年平均貸款成長率將達到中高個位數，預計全年平均存款成長率將達到 2% 至 3% 之間。

Our updated projection for full year noninterest income is growth in the range of 3.5% to 4.5%, which is an increase from our prior guidance range of 2% to 3% growth and we expect noninterest expense growth to be in the high single digits.

我們最新的全年非利息收入預測是成長 3.5% 至 4.5%，高於我們先前預測的 2% 至 3% 的成長範圍，我們預期非利息支出成長將達到高個位數。

Regarding net charge-offs, we expect full year 2025 to be similar to 2024 and in the range of 20 basis points to 25 basis points of average loans. Our effective tax rate expectation for full year 2025 remains unchanged from last quarter at 16% to 17%.

關於淨沖銷，我們預計 2025 年全年將與 2024 年相似，平均貸款在 20 個基點至 25 個基點之間。我們對 2025 年全年有效稅率的預期與上一季保持不變，為 16% 至 17%。

And with that, I'll turn the call back over to Phil for questions.

說完這些，我將把電話轉回給菲爾，讓他回答問題。

Thank you, Dan. Okay, we'll open up for questions now.

謝謝你，丹。好的，我們現在開始問問題。

(Operator Instructions)

（操作員指示）

Jared Shaw, Barclays.

巴克萊銀行的賈里德·肖。

Good afternoon, everybody. Maybe starting on the loan growth side. You talked a little bit about losses due to pricing down but less due to structure up from new production. What are you seeing in terms of pricing? Is there a spread compression continuing? Or what are you seeing in terms of pricing there?

大家下午好。也許從貸款成長方面開始。您談到了一些由於價格下降而導致的損失，但較少談到由於新產品的結構升級而導致的損失。就定價而言，您看到了什麼？利差壓縮是否仍在持續？或者您看到那裡的定價情況如何？

I think it's more competitive than it was -- it depends on the asset class in corporate real estate, commercial real estate, it would be -- there are a lot of people that have put pencils down and we're out. And I think we're seeing price compression there for sure. And just getting more competitive, I think, is the outlook improves. So I think you're seeing seen it across the board. I think the structure is the more important thing to me, though, because that just to me represents how aggressive banks are out there.

我認為現在的競爭比以前更加激烈了——這取決於企業房地產、商業房地產的資產類別——很多人都已經放下了筆，而我們則出局了。我認為我們肯定會看到價格壓縮。我認為，只要競爭力增強，前景就會改善。所以我認為你已經全面地看到了這一點。但我認為結構對我來說更為重要，因為對我來說，這代表了銀行的積極性。

And usually, it results in guarantees, burn-offs, equity levels, those kind of things. And we would we're in a position where we're competing on price. We want to compete on price. We don't want to lose good business to that. And as you've heard Dan talk about our funding costs, I believe we're a low-cost producer in the market. So there's really no reason for us to not be aggressive competitively on price.

通常，它會導致擔保、燒毀、股權水平等事情。我們將處於價格競爭的地位。我們想在價格上競爭。我們不想因此失去好生意。正如您所聽到的丹談論我們的融資成本，我相信我們是市場上的低成本生產商。因此，我們確實沒有理由不在價格上進行積極競爭。

But as it relates to structure, that's where you can get in trouble and our culture is one that we want to make sure that we're protecting the balance sheet, protecting the portfolio depositors, shareholders, et cetera. So it's what we're seeing there.

但當它與結構相關時，你可能會遇到麻煩，而我們的文化是，我們希望確保保護資產負債表，保護投資組合存款人、股東等等。這就是我們所看到的。

Okay. All right. And then if I could follow up, capital continues to grow. You're almost at nearly 14% CET1, Certainly, plenty to fund the growth expectation there. How should we think about your thoughts around capital growth from here and capital utilization?

好的。好的。然後，如果我可以跟進的話，資本會繼續增長。您的 CET1 幾乎達到 14%，當然，足以滿足那裡的成長預期。我們應該如何看待您對資本成長和資本利用的想法？

Jared, this is Dan. I think we want to continue to build our capital. Our priority is going to be the dividend, protect the dividend as Jerry left at this parting words. I won't forget that. And -- but I think for right now, I think we're looking at just building that capital base.

賈里德，這是丹。我認為我們想繼續建造我們的首都。正如傑瑞臨別時所說，我們的首要任務是股息，保護股息。我不會忘記這一點。而且——但我認為就目前而言，我們只是在考慮建立資本基礎。

So I think those -- right now, I think that's our focus. We don't -- we don't have any plans we have. We certainly have a repurchase program that we could utilize if the opportunity presented itself. But right now, the stock price is holding up, and I don't see us at this level utilizing it. I don't know, Phil, if you want to add anything.

所以我認為這些——現在，我認為這就是我們的重點。我們沒有——我們沒有任何計劃。如果有機會，我們當然可以利用回購計畫。但目前，股價仍在堅挺，我認為我們不會在這個水平上利用它。我不知道，菲爾，你是否想補充什麼。

No, I think you're right. I think our capital focus is, number one, dividend is important to protect. I think it's a distinction of our company. I think our shareholders like and expected. I know this one does.

不，我認為你是對的。我認為我們的資本重點是，第一，保護股利很重要。我認為這是我們公司的特色。我想我們的股東喜歡並且期待。我知道這個有。

And -- we've got good growth. I don't think the economy is growing as fast as it will be growing. And I think that we're keeping powder dry and we'll wait on developments. I don't think we're at a point right now where we have to do something dramatic cap.

而且——我們取得了良好的成長。我認為經濟成長速度不會像預期的那麼快。我認為我們會保持警惕，等待事態發展。我認為我們現在還沒有到必須採取重大措施的地步。

Okay. When you're looking at capital, are you primarily focusing on TCE growing from here? Is that what you would like to see higher?

好的。當您考慮資本時，您是否主要關注 TCE 的成長？這是您希望看到的更高水平嗎？

Yes, I think so. I think the risk base -- because of our balance sheet, the way it is with so much in low capital cost securities, I mean, I don't really look at all the Dan looks as much as the total capital numbers. It's more of those overall on.

是的，我認為是這樣。我認為風險基礎——由於我們的資產負債表，其中有如此多的低資本成本證券，我的意思是，我實際上並不像關注總資本數字那樣關注所有的丹。整體而言，這些都比較多。

Okay. Thanks.

好的。謝謝。

Ebrahim Poonawala, Bank of America.

美國銀行的 Ebrahim Poonawala。

Hey, good afternoon, Phil Dan, how are you? Phil, Dan, I had a question. So I've been supportive and we've been very sort of fans of your growth strategy over the last few years. I think the question you're getting from investors is like if I go back and look at 2022, earnings have flatlined, expense growth has significantly outpaced revenue growth -- just talk to us that from a shareholder perspective, when do we start seeing the benefits of all the investments that you made when you think about just bottom line results around earnings growth and hopefully, that will then translate into a better stock price.

嘿，下午好，菲爾丹，你好嗎？菲爾、丹，我有一個問題。所以我一直支持你們，而且過去幾年我們一直非常欣賞你們的成長策略。我認為投資者會問您的問題是，如果我回顧 2022 年，收益持平，支出增長大大超過收入增長——請從股東的角度告訴我們，當您考慮收益增長的底線結果時，我們什麼時候才能開始看到您所做的所有投資的收益，並希望這將轉化為更好的股價。

Would love your perspective on how you think about it and how shareholders should think about it given the last three years.

我很想聽聽您對此的看法，以及股東根據過去三年的情況應該如何看待這個問題。

It's a good question, Ebrahim. And what I'd say is that and Dan has said before that we expect that we'll have some nice accretion to this program in 2026. It's not just going to be onetime. It's not like an acquisition where you get some accretion it kind of stays at that level. It should increase over time.

這是個好問題，易卜拉欣。我想說的是，丹之前也說過，我們預計到 2026 年，這個計畫會取得一些不錯的進展。這不會只是一次性的事情。它並不像收購那樣讓你獲得一些增值，而是停留在那個水平。它應該隨著時間的推移而增加。

It will increase over time. But what I'd say about levels in the last three years or so. Certainly, we've been investing in our expansion effort, I think, to the great benefit of shareholders -- but there have been other things too, that we've had to deal with when we look at the level of demand deposits, what interest rates have done, and just pressure on that.

它會隨著時間的推移而增加。但我想說的是過去三年左右的水平。當然，我認為，我們一直在投資於我們的擴張努力，這對股東來說是件好事——但也有其他事情需要我們處理，例如活期存款的水平、利率的變化以及由此產生的壓力。

So there's three factors there. We've been investing in our people, and we've -- I think, to great effect, our turnover levels are halfly what the industry is now -- if you look at the investments we've made in technology, we talked about some generational investments we made a couple of years ago.

所以這裡有三個因素。我們一直在投資我們的員工，而且——我認為，效果很好，我們的營業額水平只有現在行業水平的一半——如果你看看我們在技術方面的投資，我們談到了幾年前進行的一些代際投資。

We continue to make investments to keep our company at a very high competitive level. That's really what's happening. It's not just the expansion effort that's going on. And so I think Dan has talked about, we think the rate of growth in expenses will be headed down over time because of some of these investments were really payoffs of technical debt in some cases in technology and just the rate of growth and expenses on expansion as the expansion effort gets bigger and bigger, the marginal investment is less.

我們持續投資，以維持公司極高的競爭力。這確實是正在發生的事情。正在進行的不僅僅是擴張努力。所以我認為丹已經談到了，我們認為費用成長率將隨著時間的推移而下降，因為其中一些投資實際上是技術債的回報，在某些情況下是技術，而只是擴張的成長率和費用隨著擴張力度越來越大，邊際投資就會減少。

So I'm not concerned about seeing returns from this. I think that the numbers that we -- that I just reported in my comments, we're over $2 billion in loans now. When I saw that, I mean, it kind of gets your attention. And deposits about $2.7 billion. I that I think we're going to see -- and Daniel can talk about the expansion and what we expect there. What I'm hopeful of is that the legacy part of the business, as the economy picks up, and I believe that it is, I think it's poised to really pick up.

所以我並不擔心由此帶來的回報。我認為，根據我剛才在評論中報告的數字，我們現在的貸款總額已超過 20 億美元。當我看到它時，我的意思是，它引起了你的注意。並存款約27億美元。我認為我們將會看到——丹尼爾可以談論擴張以及我們對此的期望。我所希望的是，隨著經濟的復甦，業務的遺留部分將會真正復甦，我相信這一點。

That's where I think that -- and you get some of the legacy operation operating and moving forward along with the expansion, that's where I think we can see some really nice returns.

這就是我的想法——隨著一些傳統業務的運作和擴張，我認為我們可以看到一些非常好的回報。

Ebrahim, I'll just kind of add to that kind of a little bit of a longer-term approach here is when we go back and look at the expansion markets versus our more legacy markets, if I go back into 2018, we had just a 2% market share in Houston and a 2.4% branch share.

易卜拉欣，我只是想補充一點，當我們回顧擴張市場與我們更傳統的市場時，如果我們回顧 2018 年，我們在休士頓的市佔率僅為 2%，分公司的市佔率為 2.4%。

Now looking back where we are in June of 2024 with -- and I'm using June of '24 because that's FDIC data, we have a 2.5% market share and a 4.8% market share, almost 5%. So that's about 50% when you compare branch share to market share. If I look at some of our legacy markets like San Antonio, we have about a 10% branch share, but about a 27% market share.

現在回顧一下我們在 2024 年 6 月的情況——我使用 24 年 6 月的數據，因為這是 FDIC 數據，我們的市佔率為 2.5% 和 4.8%，幾乎為 5%。因此，如果將分行份額與市佔率進行比較，則約為 50%。如果我看一下我們的一些傳統市場，例如聖安東尼奧，我們的分支機構份額約為 10%，但市場份額約為 27%。

And if I look even at Austin, we have a 5% branch share and a 7.3% market share. So we have -- and then Dallas, where we're just getting started in kind of halfway through in '24, we have a 3.6% branch share, and that's up from 1.4% back in 2018, but only a 1% market share.

如果我看一下奧斯汀，我們的分行佔有率為 5%，市佔率為 7.3%。所以我們有——然後是達拉斯，我們在 24 年中期才剛起步，我們的分公司份額為 3.6%，高於 2018 年的 1.4%，但市佔率只有 1%。

So we have just tremendous room for growth in Houston and Dallas to get to even par on our branch share, which in markets that we've been established in that we far exceed. So I think there's just this this optimism that we can continue to grow deposits, especially if we are entering in a lower interest rate market where deposit growth would -- has typically accelerated for us.

因此，我們在休士頓和達拉斯擁有巨大的成長空間，可以達到我們分支機構份額的平衡，而在我們已經建立的市場中，我們的分支機構份額遠遠超過這兩個市場。因此，我認為，我們樂觀地認為，我們可以繼續增加存款，特別是如果我們進入一個低利率市場，存款成長通常會加速。

Got it. And then just as a quick follow-up on deposit growth, do you think we are at a point where noninterest-bearing or DDA balances should begin to stabilize and we start seeing growth? Or is it still unclear whether or not the DDA levels off around this $13 billion to $14 billion level?

知道了。然後，作為對存款成長的快速跟進，您是否認為我們正處於無息或 DDA 餘額應該開始穩定並開始看到成長的階段？或者目前還不清楚 DDA 是否會穩定在 130 億至 140 億美元的水平上？

So I think we've kind of -- we're kind of bumping near the bottom. I don't know if we're quite at there, but I'm encouraged by just what I've seen in the last couple of weeks in terms of deposit flows that you're starting to see the DDA balances grow. So I'm encouraged that typically in the second half of the year, again, our commercial customers will build up their DDA balances towards the end of the year and into the kind of end of this third quarter and into the fourth quarter. So I would expect it to, but to be determined.

所以我認為我們有點——我們有點接近底部了。我不知道我們是否已經達到了這個水平，但就過去幾週的存款流動而言，我感到鼓舞，因為您開始看到 DDA 餘額正在增長。因此，我很高興看到，通常在下半年，我們的商業客戶將在年底、第三季末和第四季累積他們的 DDA 餘額。所以我希望如此，但還有待確定。

I think that the -- we mentioned the consumer, we sort of returned to seasonal trends along with the growth consumer and we've seen checking account growth, I think that is, as I mentioned, I think, is more in line with what we've typically seen. -- we're hopeful that -- and I think we've seen sort of a return to seasonal trends in commercial DDA, but there's so many other factors that business is deal with and you're dealing with such large amounts of money.

我認為——我們提到了消費者，隨著消費者的成長，我們回歸了季節性趨勢，我們看到了支票帳戶的成長，我認為，正如我所提到的，我認為這更符合我們通常看到的情況。 ——我們希望——我認為我們已經看到商業 DDA 回歸季節性趨勢，但企業要處理的其他因素還有很多，而且你要處理如此大量的資金。

It's hard to say definitively that we are on that seasonal track, and we're going to see that growth through the end of the year. I don't know if the reason why we wouldn't, but it's -- what we're waiting on now is seeing those seasonal trends manifest themselves as they typically would in the half year. last half of the year.

很難明確地說我們是否正處於季節性軌道上，我們將在年底前看到這種增長。我不知道我們為什麼不這樣做的原因是什麼，但我們現在正在等待的是看到這些季節性趨勢像往常一樣在半年內顯現出來。

Got it. Thank you.

知道了。謝謝。

Casey Haire, Autonomous Research.

Casey Haire，自主研究。

Thanks. Good afternoon, everyone. Follow-up on the NII guide. It seems just a little conservative. With day count, you're going to get a little bit of natural health in the third quarter. And the guide doesn't assume much growth. Just wondering what -- like our loan pipelines slowing down? Like what's driving? Or what's the main factor and what appears to be a pretty flat run rate in the back half of '25 here?

謝謝。大家下午好。跟進 NII 指南。這似乎有點保守。隨著時間的推移，你會在第三季獲得一點自然的健康。且該指南並未假設會有太大的成長。只是想知道什麼——比如我們的貸款管道放緩了？比如什麼在驅動？或主要因素是什麼？為什麼 25 年下半年的運行率似乎相當穩定？

Casey, it will -- the net interest margin will improve. But since it's a full year guidance, it doesn't a rate cut towards the back of the year. Is it going to impact the full year. And again, I think we're seeing consistent loan volume. We should have some back half of the year payoffs in real estate, some in energy as well. But it's -- if we see higher volumes and deposits, it may be easy to the upside of that guidance.

凱西，淨利差將會提高。但由於這是全年指導，因此不會在年底降息。這會影響全年嗎？而且我認為我們的貸款量保持穩定。我們應該在房地產和能源領域獲得一些下半年的回報。但如果我們看到更高的交易量和存款，那麼該指導的上行可能很容易。

Okay. And apologies if I missed this. (multiple speakers) Got you. Okay. Apologies if I missed this, but the pipeline, did you guys quantify that up or down? -- the quarter of $630.

好的。如果我錯過了這一點，請見諒。（多位發言者）明白了。好的。如果我錯過了這一點，請原諒，但是對於管道，你們是將其量化為上調還是下調？ ——每季 630 美元。

Yeah. It was only down 1%. That's pretty consistent. Considering I think you reported the commitments in the in the second quarter being around $2 billion. So to see the pipeline us close out a lot of those opportunities and essentially replace them and to only see it down 1% is encouraging to -- as we look at kind of the 90-day pipeline into the third quarter and start of the fourth.

是的。僅下降了1%。這相當一致。考慮到我認為您報告的第二季承諾金額約為 20 億美元。因此，看到管道讓我們關閉了很多機會並從本質上取代它們，並且只看到它下降了 1%，這是令人鼓舞的——當我們看第三季度和第四季度開始時的 90 天管道時。

And the relationship numbers was strong as well. So I don't see -- I don't see a slowdown in that. We've seen draws under commitments be weaker just the line utilization. I think it's probably down 1% from a quarter ago, maybe down -- and then maybe add another 1.5% if you're looking versus a year ago, maybe another percent of I think businesses have had some uncertainty they've had to deal with. And so I think they're waiting around for more clarity.

而且關係數字也很強大。所以我沒有看到——我沒有看到這方面出現放緩。我們已經看到，承諾下的抽籤率較低，只是線路利用率較低。我認為它可能比上一季下降了 1%，也許下降了——如果與一年前相比，可能會再增加 1.5%，也許再增加一個百分點，我認為企業必須應對一些不確定性。所以我認為他們正在等待更明確的消息。

We've heard that clearly from our loan officers in the marketplace. And I think as more clarity is developing around trade policy. I really believe there's just my feeling based on what we're hearing with customers, I think that we're going to see some activity in projects that were on hold right now or were on hold, say, 3 months ago beginning to move forward if they still think the economics are good.

我們從市場上的貸款人員那裡清楚地聽到了這一點。我認為貿易政策正在變得更加清晰。我真的相信，根據我們從客戶那裡聽到的消息，我的感覺是，如果他們仍然認為經濟狀況良好，我們將看到一些現在被擱置的項目或例如 3 個月前被擱置的項目開始向前推進。

And we're not really just waiting on trade policy. One of the things I think we heard clearly from them is that they're waiting to see if there'd be a recession, right?

我們其實不只是在等待貿易政策。我認為我們從他們那裡清楚聽到的一件事是，他們正在等著看是否會出現經濟衰退，對嗎？

Nobody is going to want to expand into a recession. And so I think there's a general feeling that that's less likely. And so I think that's going to clear up some uncertainty from some customers. So I'm looking forward to seeing some movement in the next -- in the back half of the year.

沒有人願意在經濟衰退時繼續擴張。所以我認為大家普遍認為這種可能性較小。所以我認為這將消除一些客戶的不確定性。所以我期待在今年下半年看到一些進展。

Great, thank you.

太好了，謝謝。

Peter Winter, D.A. Davidson.

彼得溫特、D.A.戴維森。

Hi, good afternoon. I wanted to follow up on the net interest income question because I also thought it would be the higher end. I thought you would have increased that upper end of the range just because originally, you were assuming port rate cuts, and there is a negative impact, I think, about $1.7 million per quarter. And now it's only two rate cuts. And so with less rate cuts, why not see an increase to the upper end of the net interest income?

嗨，下午好。我想跟進淨利息收入的問題，因為我也認為這將是較高的一端。我以為你會提高這個範圍的上限，因為最初你假設港口費率會降低，而且我認為這會產生負面影響，每季約 170 萬美元。而現在僅降息兩次。那麼，在降息幅度較小的情況下，為什麼淨利息收入的上限不會增加呢？

Peter, some of that is just where those deposits are going, some that you're seeing are CD balances higher cost. Those had kind of flattened in the first quarter. We actually saw them increase, and we're seeing some good volumes there. So that's probably just the disintermediation and where the deposit mix is, I would say, is the biggest driver of just where that NIM would end up. So if we continue to see it going into higher cost deposits, that would put pressure on the guidance on that NIM.

彼得，其中一些只是那些存款的去向，一些你看到的是 CD 餘額成本較高。這些在第一季已經趨於平緩。我們確實看到它們有所增加，並且我們看到了一些不錯的交易量。所以，這可能只是非中介化，而我想說，存款組合是決定淨利息收益率最終走向的最大驅動因素。因此，如果我們繼續看到它進入成本更高的存款，這將對 NIM 的指導帶來壓力。

Got it. And just with the branch expansion strategy, Phil, in your opening remarks, you talked about -- you've identified some more locations. I'm just wondering, as you're getting closer to completing the projects, do you -- is the focus to continue to expand in Houston, Dallas often? Or is there some consideration maybe to shift this de novo strategy outside of Texas in other high-growth markets?

知道了。菲爾，您在開場白中談到了分支機構擴張策略——您已經確定了更多地點。我只是想知道，隨著您越來越接近完成項目，您是否會繼續將重點放在休士頓和達拉斯的擴張上？或者是否考慮將這項全新策略從德州轉移到其他高成長市場？

Yeah, Peter. Not outside of Texas. I think the thing that we've been doing is we were making sure that we've got locations which we have lined up in the pipeline so that as we're bringing in these -- some of these announced expansions in these markets like Dallas and Boston, which remain that we've got the ability to move into other markets without fighting to find a location and going through all that going through the negotiation that go along with that.

是的，彼得。不在德州以外。我認為我們一直在做的事情是確保我們已經在渠道中排好了位置，這樣當我們引入這些業務時——其中一些宣佈在達拉斯和波士頓等市場擴張，我們有能力進入其他市場，而不必費力尋找位置，也不必經歷隨之而來的談判。

I've been talking to our team over the last year. Let's look for the puck's going and let's make sure that we're -- that's where we're going to be. And because some of these markets, I describe it this way, when we get through with Austin, Dallas will we do it in the next 12 months, the fine the next 1.5 years, -- that strategy that began in Houston will be eight years old from the first branch that we opened will Houston has grown time in eight years.

去年我一直在和我們的團隊交談。讓我們觀察冰球的走向，並確保我們——那就是我們要去的地方。因為其中一些市場，我是這樣描述的，當我們打通奧斯汀和達拉斯後，我們會在未來 12 個月內做到這一點，最好是在接下來的 1.5 年內做到這一點——從我們開設第一家分店開始，休斯頓就已經有八年的發展歷史了，休斯頓將在八年內發展壯大。

And I don't want to say what markets that we're not in that we consider because I want to hit my hand, but if you look at some of the markets around there, they have explosive growth and over that eight-year period. So I think there's plenty of places that we can go both in Houston and Dallas. And frankly, probably there's more in Austin that we can that we can expand into. But it's a different deal.

我不想說我們考慮過哪些尚未涉足的市場，因為我想打自己的主意，但如果你看看周圍的一些市場，你會發現它們在那八年的時間裡都出現了爆炸性增長。所以我認為休士頓和達拉斯有很多地方可以去。坦白說，奧斯汀可能還有更多我們可以擴展的地方。但這是另一回事。

We're not filling these gaping holes in the market that we used to have. It's going to be finding these really high-growth areas and sort of going along with the growth -- and then I'd say at the same time, it won't just be in the places where we've had expansion in Houston, Dallas and Austin. It's going to be some other markets where we're filling in, in some more legacy markets. We just opened one in the Fort Worth area that was long way by the growth that we've had in the Alliance area. And so there are plenty of great locations.

我們並沒有填補過去市場上的這些巨大空白。我們會找到這些真正高成長的地區，並順應這種成長趨勢——同時我想說，我們的擴張範圍不會只限於休士頓、達拉斯和奧斯汀等地。我們將進軍其他一些市場，特別是一些較傳統的市場。我們剛在沃斯堡地區開設了一家分店，與我們在聯盟地區的成長相比，這家分店已經走了很長一段路。因此有很多很棒的地點。

We've got them lined up. We've acquired many, and these are all in Texas, and we're going to be focused on the best high-growth locations that we can identify. And I'm very optimistic about what we're going to be able to do there. We almost stop growing at that.

我們已經把他們排好隊了。我們已經收購了許多公司，這些公司都在德克薩斯州，我們將專注於我們所能找到的最佳高成長地區。我對我們在那裡能做的事情非常樂觀。我們幾乎就此停止了成長。

We as Dan said, we -- it's great to have $2 billion that we didn't have to pay a premium for an acquisition that we now have through acquisition. -- at [69] relationships that have selected for us to do business, for example. I mean, it's great to have that.

正如丹所說，我們——很高興擁有 20 億美元，而我們不必為現在透過收購獲得的收購支付溢價。 ——例如，在 [69] 個選擇我們做生意的關係中。我的意思是，擁有這個真是太好了。

But -- and there's -- we're still at a small market share in Dallas, we're in a small market -- relatively small market share in Houston, there's so much work for us to do and so much there's so much ore for us to mine out of these great markets. That's where our focus is going to be.

但是——而且——我們在達拉斯的市佔率仍然很小，我們在休士頓的市佔率也相對較小，我們還有很多工作要做，這些大市場中還有很多礦石有待我們開採。這就是我們關注的重點。

I want to say the markets of Dallas and Houston deposit markets are larger than the state of Colorado and Arizona. And so you think about just the opportunities in just those two markets where what we started eight years ago in Houston, we would look at a trade area, and we had just huge holes in the market, really nothing north on, if you're familiar with Houston on Interstate 59, I think Northwest on 249 and really nothing west of the beltway on I-10.

我想說達拉斯和休士頓的存款市場比科羅拉多州和亞利桑那州的市場還要大。所以，你想想這兩個市場中的機會，我們八年前在休士頓開始的時候，會考慮一個貿易區，但我們在市場上有巨大的漏洞，如果你熟悉休士頓的 59 號州際公路，我想西北方向的 249 號公路，以及環城公路以西的 10 號州際公路，那麼實際上北部什麼都沒有。

And so we filled in kind of some large gas in Houston where now we could come back and maybe more with a rifle approach really identify maybe some markets that we feel like with our customer service, our consumer lending that has really surprised us in Dallas, how well it's gone that they might be markets that we would consider now.

因此，我們在休士頓填補了一些空白，現在我們可以回來，也許更多地採用步槍的方式，真正識別一些我們認為的市場，我們的客戶服務、我們的消費貸款在達拉斯確實讓我們感到驚訝，它們的進展如何，可能是我們現在會考慮的市場。

Got it. Thanks, very helpful. I appreciate it.

知道了。謝謝，非常有幫助。我很感激。

Manan Gosalia, Morgan Stanley.

馬南‧戈薩利亞，摩根士丹利。

Hi, good afternoon. Phil, you spoke about lending getting a little bit more competitive. Are you seeing that on the deposit side as well? Given many other banks are talking about C&I loan growth accelerating, are you seeing some pressure on the deposit side as well?

嗨，下午好。菲爾，您談到了貸款變得更具競爭力。您在存款方面也看到這種情況了嗎？鑑於許多其他銀行都在談論工商業貸款成長加速，您是否也看到存款方面面臨一些壓力？

I don't think we've seen that to this point. But in fact, I'll tell you that there are cases where we might lose a deal -- the structure is probably what the way that works. But we'll keep a positive relationship. That happens a lot. We really hate to lose a relationship, which we, by the way, defined as having to primary deposit accounts.

我認為我們目前還沒有看到這一點。但事實上，我會​​告訴你，在某些情況下我們可能會失去一筆交易——結構可能是運作的方式。但我們會保持積極的關係。這種情況經常發生。我們真的不想失去一段關係，順便說一句，我們將這段關係定義為主要存款帳戶。

So we haven't seen that. I think our rates are solid in the marketplace. So it's not really a competitive rate thing. And I think the service proposition that we bring to the table I mean you can look at the Greenwich awards, the J.D. Power awards, I mean, it's hard to or you can't buy that in the other place. And so I haven't seen that same thing on the deposit side to this point.

所以我們還沒有看到這一點。我認為我們的價格在市場上是穩定的。所以這其實不是一個有競爭力的價格問題。我認為我們提出的服務主張，我的意思是你可以看看格林威治獎、J.D. Power 獎，我的意思是，在其他地方很難買到或買不到這些。所以到目前為止我還沒有在存款方面看到同樣的事情。

Got it. And then maybe to get your thoughts on your interest in bank M&A, clearly, M&A is picking up in Texas. We've seen a few deals announced over the past few weeks. You guys have the currency to do bank M&A. So any thoughts on inorganic growth here?

知道了。然後也許您可以談談您對銀行併購的興趣，顯然，併購在德克薩斯州正在興起。過去幾週，我們看到了一些交易的宣布。你們有資金進行銀行併購。那麼對於無機成長有什麼看法嗎？

Yeah. It's our you're doing your job to ask the question. And so that's -- it's a good question, but -- and yes, our currency is strong relative to others, but we are not interested in organic growth there are so many reasons around it. But with what we're doing today and the focus that we're able to bring on customer service focus on being in the right markets that we choose to be in hiring the right people to staff and be leaders in these markets. I mean, it's -- there's so much clarity there for our company and our staff, and we're not worried about the regulatory aspects.

是的。提出這個問題是你的職責所在。所以，這是個好問題，但是，是的，我們的貨幣相對於其他國家來說很強勁，但我們對有機成長不感興趣，因為這方面有很多原因。但根據我們今天所做的工作以及我們對客戶服務的關注，我們選擇在正確的市場中聘用合適的人才並成為這些市場的領導者。我的意思是，對於我們公司和員工來說，這非常清晰，我們並不擔心監管方面的問題。

We're not worried about converting old systems. We're not worried about closing old locations and rebranding. There's so much costs associated with it. And I go back to one other thing, too, that that I've said before is if you look at the cost out, we have all in for this organic growth per $1 billion.

我們並不擔心轉換舊系統。我們並不擔心關閉舊店和重塑品牌。這涉及很多成本。我還要回到另一件事，我之前說過，如果你看一下成本，我們會發現，每 10 億美元都會帶來有機成長。

It's about half what you're seeing paid in the market for acquisitions. So it's if you're able to pull it off and you've got a value proposition that will sell in the marketplace, an organic strategy, I think, for our shareholders is just so superior and the -- and there's really no need for us to give large pieces of this company that's been heavily curated with regard to brand and customer base and markets, et cetera, to others that might have cobbled together franchise of sorts. I just don't see that as a value for our shareholders.

這大約是市場上收購價格的一半。所以，如果你能夠成功，並且你有一個可以在市場上銷售的價值主張，那麼我認為，對於我們的股東來說，有機戰略是非常優越的，而且——我們真的沒有必要把這家在品牌、客戶群和市場等方面經過精心策劃的公司的大部分股份交給其他可能拼湊出各種特許經營權的公司。我只是不認為這對我們的股東有價值。

And I think we're -- they're best served by allowing our shareholders who gave us the ability to create a company that can grow organically, let them have the benefit of that growth and those returns as we continue to prosecute this strategy. That's the way I'm seeing it. I'm convinced of it. And so I'm not really interested in participating in the M&A activity.

我認為，對他們來說最好的服務就是讓我們的股東能夠創造一家能夠有機成長的公司，讓他們享受這種成長和回報帶來的好處，同時我們繼續推行這項策略。這就是我的看法。我確信這一點。所以我對參與併購活動不太感興趣。

And I'll tell you just one other thing, and it's just the reality is that when we see expansion -- when we see acquisition activity occurring in our marketplace. It really is to our benefit because it creates dislocation, it creates dissatisfaction.

我還要告訴你一件事，事實是，當我們看到擴張時——當我們看到市場上發生收購活動時。這確實對我們有利，因為它造成了混亂，造成了不滿。

It just creates noise in the marketplace and really provides us opportunities to pick up business, and we've seen that the names we've seen some really great examples of that over the last few years, and I'm kind of looking forward, frankly, to some of this acquisition activity that they have.

它只是在市場上製造了噪音，並真正為我們提供了開展業務的機會，而且我們已經看到了過去幾年中一些非常好的例子，坦率地說，我有點期待他們的一些收購活動。

And that gives you the ability to pick up both customers as well as bankers?

這是否使您能夠同時吸引客戶和銀行家？

Absolutely.

絕對地。

All right, thank you.

好的，謝謝。

Matt (inaudible) Stevens Inc.

馬特（聽不清楚）史蒂文斯公司

Thanks for taking the question, guys. Just a few follow-ups here. On the deposit competition -- it looks like the deposit betas so far have been around 50% and far in the cycle, which I think is a little bit better, a little bit better than you were assuming previously. Dan, are you assuming similar betas from here on the remaining head cuts in your guidance?

謝謝大家回答這個問題。這裡僅有幾個後續問題。關於存款競爭——看起來到目前為止存款測試版已經在 50% 左右並且處於週期性階段，我認為這比你之前假設的要好一些。丹，在你的指導中，你是否假設從現在開始對剩餘的裁員進行類似的測試？

Yeah. I think you should see as the Fed funds go down that so far, we've been able to kind of keep the similar betas. The we'll always kind of check the competition, especially likely on that CD just to make sure that we're offering a fair a square deal to our customers that's competitive in the marketplace. And again, we have the deposit base to do that.

是的。我認為您應該看到，隨著聯邦基金利率下降，到目前為止，我們已經能夠保持類似的貝塔係數。我們總是會檢查競爭對手，尤其是在那張 CD 上，只是為了確保我們向客戶提供公平的交易，在市場上具有競爭力。而且，我們有足夠的存款基礎來做到這一點。

Okay. And then as far as the bit guidance on the noninterest income, positive revision there, any more specifics you can provide on the improved outlook versus a few months ago?

好的。那麼，就非利息收入的指引和積極的修訂而言，與幾個月前相比，您能否提供更多有關前景改善的具體資訊？

On the noninterest income Yeah. So I think a couple of things. One, the stock market has been healthier, and we weren't exactly sure when we issued our guidance where the market would go. There wasn't a lot of clarity. It seems like we've gotten some tariff clarity and then the markets responded accordingly.

關於非利息收入，是的。所以我想到了幾件事。首先，股市一直比較健康，當我們發布指導意見時，我們並不確定市場會走向何方。不太清楚。看起來我們已經對關稅有了一定的了解，然後市場也做出了相應的反應。

So that's probably one. Your -- the others are mainly, I would say, just volume related. When you think about interchange and service charges, that's just -- that's growing customers. And so -- we're continuing to add new customers. Initially, at the beginning of the year, we were looking at some interchange in the back half of the year. Regulation that didn't -- that we've pushed out. We don't know when that will be addressed.

這可能是其中之一。您的——我想說，其他的主要是與音量有關。當你考慮交換費和服務費時，那隻是——那就是不斷成長的客戶。因此—我們正在繼續增加新客戶。最初，在年初，我們就在考慮下半年進行一些交流。我們已經推行了那些沒有實施的監管措施。我們不知道什麼時候能解決這個問題。

And so we've kind of taken it out of 2026. And that's -- and probably on the -- the only other thing I'll add on the back half of the year is we had a really strong 2024 capital markets. And so far, in '25, we're certainly behind in '24.

因此，我們將其從 2026 年中剔除。那就是——可能也是——關於今年下半年我要補充的唯一一件事是，我們的 2024 年資本市場非常強勁。到目前為止，25 年我們肯定落後於 24 年。

We may have a this third quarter, you're seeing some opportunities with some school districts in their bond underwriting. So I would expect third quarter to be a little stronger there, but likely that will go away in the fourth quarter. So those would be kind of just some things that you could expect. Thank you.

在第三季度，您會看到一些學區在債券承銷方面存在一些機會。因此我預計第三季的表現會稍微強勁一些，但第四季的表現可能會減弱。所以這些只是你可以期待的一些事情。謝謝。

Catherine Miller, KBW.

凱瑟琳·米勒，KBW。

Thanks, good afternoon. So just to follow up on that service charge comments. So we should kind of keep service charges at these current levels or maybe even growing a little bit versus taking some -- I think we were modeling a little bit of a change from the lower interchange. But your point was just basically take that out and continue to grow service charges from here. Is that fair?

謝謝，下午好。因此，我只是想跟進一下服務費的評論。因此，我們應該將服務費維持在目前的水平，甚至可能略有增加，而不是收取一些費用——我認為我們正在模擬較低交換費的一點變化。但你的觀點基本上是將其取消，然後繼續提高服務費。這樣公平嗎？

That's fair. I think what we're seeing is we're -- it is truly just a volume. It's not like we're increasing fees on consumers. We're it's really truly -- we just have a lot more customers, and we're opening up locations and bringing in new accounts.

這很公平。我認為我們所看到的是——它實際上只是一個卷。這並不是說我們要提高消費者的費用。我們確實——我們只是擁有更多的客戶，而且我們正在開設分店並引入新客戶。

Great. Okay. Perfect. And then I wanted to follow up on the deposit piece. Where are your new deposits coming in today relative to where maybe that 129 cost of deposits are today.

偉大的。好的。完美的。然後我想跟進存款部分。相對於今天 129 筆存款的成本而言，您今天的新存款來自哪裡？

It's broad-based. And I'm looking at kind of some information on just where it's coming on recently and it's -- we've seen it recently, like I'm talking about July coming in broad-based, we're seeing CD growth, but we're also seeing some good DDA growth -- so I don't think it's overly weighted one way or the other. But it's kind of more back to seasonal trends that we've had in the past.

它具有廣泛的基礎。我正在查看一些關於它最近發展情況的信息，而且——我們最近已經看到它了，就像我說的 7 月份的廣泛情況一樣，我們看到了 CD 的增長，但我們也看到了一些良好的 DDA 增長——所以我不認為它以某種方式過度加權。但它更像是回到了我們過去的季節性趨勢。

Got it. But would it be fair to think if we were in a higher for longer environment that we did not get cuts, that deposit costs would actually start to come up a little bit from here, just given higher competition?

知道了。但是，如果我們長期處於更高的環境中，並且沒有削減成本，那麼考慮到更激烈的競爭，存款成本實際上會從現在開始略有上升，這樣想公平嗎？

I think if you -- you would see -- I wouldn't expect it necessarily in the back half of the year just because typically our commercial customers and our consumer trends are looking like they're returning to seasonal trends where interest on checking and DDA would increase.

我想如果你 - 你會看到 - 我不會期望它一定會在下半年出現，因為通常我們的商業客戶和消費者趨勢看起來正在回歸季節性趨勢，其中對支票和 DDA 的興趣會增加。

You might see just -- you might see a shift if there's more movement into CDs or money market funds or our repo account that funding costs would go up. But I don't think materially, you'll see it change much.

您可能會看到—如果存單、貨幣市場基金或回購帳戶的資金流入增加，融資成本就會上升。但我不認為從實質上看它會發生太大的變化。

So that would be more of a mix.

所以這將會是一種混合。

A low market in some way and we'd have to catch up with the market.

某種程度上，市場低迷，我們必須趕上市場。

Got it. Okay, great. Appreciate that. Thank you.

知道了。好的，太好了。非常感謝。謝謝。

John Astron, RBC Capital Markets.

加拿大皇家銀行資本市場 (RBC Capital Markets) 的約翰‧阿斯特倫 (John Astron)。

Hey, thanks, good afternoon. Just a few follow-ups here. On lending, where is the competition coming from? Is that too big to fail banks or is it regional or community banks or all of the above?

嘿，謝謝，下午好。這裡僅有幾個後續問題。在貸款方面，競爭來自哪裡？這是「大到不能倒」的銀行嗎？還是地區性銀行、社區銀行，或以上皆是？

I think it's all the above. Although I will say, I seem to feel like there's a little bit more pressure coming from smaller maybe banks a little smaller than us. they're sort of waking up to having some. Having some money, I guess, to go into some of these asset classes. -- and they typically will be a little bit more aggressive on underwriting. So it seems like I've seen that, but it's really everywhere.

我認為以上都是。不過，我想說，我似乎感覺來自比我們小一點的銀行的壓力更大一些。他們開始意識到自己的壓力。我想，他們有一些錢可以投入這些資產類別——而且他們通常在承銷方面更加積極一些。看起來我好像見過它，但它實際上無處不在。

Yeah, okay.

嗯，好的。

Larger loan opportunities is where we really see the competition, larger, high quality. I mean, that's there's not a lot of them. And so when they come around, it can get pretty competitive on both pricing and structure.

更大的貸款機會才是我們真正看到競爭的地方，競爭更大，品質更高。我的意思是，這樣的人並不多。因此，當他們出現時，它在價格和結構上都會變得相當有競爭力。

Okay. On the margin and NII outlook in rates, how much has that changed without cuts? I'm not necessarily thinking between now and the end of the year. You mentioned that, Dan, but how impactful is a 25 basis points cut to the margin and NII just in general?

好的。就利率的邊際和 NII 前景而言，如果不降息，情況會發生多大變化？我不一定會考慮從現在到年底的事情。丹，你提到了這一點，但是將保證金和 NII 下調 25 個基點總體上會有多大影響呢？

Yes. So we -- for the year impact, it's -- like you said, it's not going to make a big dense in the full year net interest margin. On one cut, again, it's around that $1.8 million per month. And so your -- you could see if we don't get any cuts for a full year, that -- I'm going to just kind of give you a range that could be depending on a lot of factors, you could see it bump up for a full year more in the kind of 2 basis points to 4 basis points.

是的。因此，對於全年的影響而言，就像您所說的那樣，它不會對全年淨利差產生很大的影響。再次，一次性削減，每月約 180 萬美元。因此，您可以看到，如果我們全年都沒有降息，那麼，我將給您一個可能取決於許多因素的範圍，您可能會看到它在全年內上漲 2 個基點到 4 個基點。

Okay. Okay. Good. That's helpful. And then any -- I'm just looking at your numbers, you have a 1.2% ROA and a -- almost 16% ROE -- and I think you're saying that 30 of your branches are at breakeven in aggregate. How long does it take for the -- I hate to use the word project, but for the project expansion project to reach something like the average returns of your legacy branches? And any guidelines on how much the branch expansion can contribute to earnings over the next year or two?

好的。好的。好的。這很有幫助。然後任何——我只是看了你的數字，你的 ROA 為 1.2% 並且——幾乎 16% 的 ROE——我認為你說的是你的 30 個分支機構總體上處於盈虧平衡狀態。我不喜歡用「專案」這個詞，但是專案擴展專案需要多長時間才能達到您原有分店的平均回報水準？有什麼指導方針可以說明未來一兩年分公司的擴張能為獲利帶來多少貢獻嗎？

We'll probably hold off until really we give 2026 guidance on the just would impact on the kind of earnings per share. But I can just kind of talk a in generalities. Again, kind of years one through four, you're really kind of in that breakeven stage of the expansion. And then you start to see in years five and beyond really where there's accretion. And so what -- and you have a good point.

我們可能會等到真正給出 2026 年的指導意見後再討論對每股盈餘的影響。但我只能泛泛地談談。再說一次，從第一年到第四年，你實際上處於擴張的損益平衡階段。然後，你會開始看到第五年及以後真正成長的地方。那又怎樣——你說得有道理。

I think we've got like 14 of our locations in Houston that are now over five years. Well, Houston, as we said, has kind of been paying for the expansions in Dallas and in Austin. And so as Dallas matures, you're going to see Dallas become breakeven in the next year to 18 months. And so it doesn't drag on Houston. And then really Houston ends up covering Austin, which is at that time in '26 you'll have accretion at that point.

我認為我們在休士頓有 14 家門市，至今已有五年多了。嗯，正如我們所說，休士頓一直在為達拉斯和奧斯汀的擴張付出代價。隨著達拉斯的成熟，你會看到達拉斯在未來一年到一年半內達到收支平衡。所以它不會拖累休斯頓。然後休斯頓實際上最終覆蓋了奧斯汀，也就是 1926 年那個時候，那時你就會有成長。

It's just right now you have Houston covering some of Dallas because the average age of the Dallas branch is right at two years whereas the average age of Houston 1.0 is around five years.

現在休士頓分公司涵蓋了達拉斯的部分地區，因為達拉斯分公司的平均成立時間正好是兩年，而休士頓 1.0 的平均成立時間約為五年。

So it's just -- as it matures and you start to see more branches go beyond the four years and then five years and beyond is when you'll see kind of that shift mix of more branches in years five and beyond than you have in years one through four.

所以，隨著它的成熟，你開始看到更多的分支機構超越四年，然後五年及以後，你會看到第五年及以後的分支機構數量比第一年到第四年更多。

So we're probably, I would say, three or four years to where you're going to see, again, it's just kind of math if we're building 10 to 12 branches basically one a month for the last 6 years, well, you're not going to have as many in years 5 through 10, but in another four or five years, you're going to see more branches in those years 5 through 10.

所以我想說，我們可能還需要三到四年的時間才能看到，再說一次，這只是一種數學計算，如果我們在過去 6 年里基本上每個月建立一個 10 到 12 個分支機構，那麼在第 5 到第 10 年你不會有這麼多的分支機構，但再過四五年，你會看到在第 5 到第 10 年有更多的分支機構。

Okay. But -- and you're still saying it's basically breakeven in aggregate at this point or near breakeven. Is that right?

好的。但是——你仍然說目前總體上基本上是收支平衡或接近收支平衡。是嗎？

Through the first two quarters, we're breaking even.

經過前兩個季度，我們實現了收支平衡。

Okay, alright, thank you guys.

好的，好的，謝謝大家。

There are no further questions at this time. I would like to hand the conference back over to management for closing remarks.

目前沒有其他問題。我想將會議交還給管理階層，由他們發表閉幕詞。

Okay. We appreciate everybody's interest, as always, and you all have a good day. Thank you.

好的。一如既往，我們感謝大家的關注，祝大家有個愉快的一天。謝謝。

Thank you. This will conclude today's conference. You may disconnect at this time, and thank you for your participation.

謝謝。今天的會議到此結束。此時您可以斷開連接，感謝您的參與。