Cullen/Frost Bankers Inc (CFR) 2024 Q4 法說會逐字稿

Greetings. Welcome to Cuddllen/Frost Bankrs fourth quarter and full year 2024 results conference call. (Operator Instructions) As a reminder, this conference is being recorded.

問候。歡迎參加 Cuddllen/Frost Bankrs 2024 年第四季和全年業績電話會議。（操作員指示）提醒一下，本次會議正在錄音。

It is now my pleasure to introduce A.B. Mendez, Senior Vice President and Director of Investor Relations. Thank you. You may begin.

現在我很高興介紹 A.B。門德斯 (Mendez)，資深副總裁兼投資者關係總監。謝謝。你可以開始了。

Thanks, Sherry. This afternoon's conference call will be led Phil Green, Chairman and CEO; and Dan Geddes, Group Executive Vice President and CFO. Before I turn the call over to Phil and Dan, I need to take a moment to address the safe harbor provisions.

謝謝，雪莉。今天下午的電話會議將由董事長兼執行長 Phil Green 主持；以及集團執行副總裁兼財務長 Dan Geddes。在我將電話轉給菲爾和丹之前，我需要花點時間處理安全港條款。

Some of the remarks made today will constitute forward-looking statements as defined in the Private Securities Litigation Reform Act of 1995 as amended. We intend such statements to be covered by the safe harbor provisions for forward-looking statements contained in the Private Securities Litigation Reform Act of 1995 as amended. Please see the last page of text in this morning's earnings release for additional information about the risk factors associated with these forward-looking statements. If needed, a copy of the release is available on our website or by calling the Investor Relations department at (210) 220-5234.

今天發表的一些言論將構成 1995 年私人證券訴訟改革法案（經修訂）中定義的前瞻性陳述。我們希望此類聲明能夠受到 1995 年私人證券訴訟改革法（經修訂）中前瞻性聲明的安全港條款的約束。有關這些前瞻性陳述的風險因素的更多信息，請參閱今天上午的收益報告的最後一頁文字。如果需要，您可以在我們的網站上取得新聞稿的副本，或致電投資者關係部 (210) 220-5234。

At this time, I'll turn the call over to Phil.

現在，我將把電話轉給菲爾。

Good afternoon, everyone, and thanks for joining us. Today, we'll review our fourth quarter and full year 2024 results for Cullen/Frost and our Chief Financial Officer, Dan Geddes, will provide additional commentary and guidance before we take your questions. In the fourth quarter, Cullen/Frost earned $153.2 million or $2.36 a share compared with earnings of $100.9 million or $1.55 per share reported in the same quarter last year. And for the full year 2024, the company's net income available to common shareholders was $575.9 million and that compared with 2023 earnings available to common shareholders of $591.3 million.

大家下午好，感謝大家的收看。今天，我們將回顧 Cullen/Frost 的第四季度和 2024 年全年業績，我們的財務長 Dan Geddes 將在回答您的問題之前提供更多評論和指導。第四季度，Cullen/Frost 獲利 1.532 億美元，即每股 2.36 美元，而去年同期的獲利為 1.009 億美元，即每股 1.55 美元。2024 年全年，該公司普通股股東可獲得的淨收入為 5.759 億美元，而 2023 年普通股股東可獲得的收益為 5.913 億美元。

On a per share basis, 2024 full year earnings were $8.87 per share compared with $9.10 per share reported for the full year 2023. Our return on average assets and average common equity in the fourth quarter were 1.19% and 15.58%, respectively. That compares with 0.82% and and 13.51% for the same period last year. Average deposits in the fourth quarter were $41.9 billion up from $41.2 billion in the fourth quarter last year. Average loans grew by 9% to $20.3 billion in the fourth quarter compared with $18.6 billion in the fourth quarter last year.

以每股計算，2024 年全年每股收益為 8.87 美元，而 2023 年全年每股收益為 9.10 美元。我們第四季的平均資產報酬率和平均普通股權益報酬率分別為1.19%和15.58%。相比之下，去年同期分別為 0.82% 和 13.51%。第四季的平均存款為 419 億美元，高於去年第四季的 412 億美元。第四季平均貸款額為 203 億美元，較去年同期的 186 億美元成長 9%。

We continue to see solid results driven by the hard work of our Frost bankers and the expansion effort that we have going today. As was the case in previous quarters, Cullen/Frost didn't utilize any FHLB advances or broker deposits are reciprocal because arrangements to build insured deposit percentages or to fund liquidity. So the way I continue to like to say it is -- and when you look at our balance sheet, what you see is what you get. We continue to see excellent results with our organic growth strategy.

在 Frost 銀行家們的辛勤工作和我們今天進行的擴張努力的推動下，我們繼續看到堅實的表現。與前幾季的情況一樣，Cullen/Frost 並沒有利用任何 FHLB 預付款或經紀人存款，因為安排建立保險存款百分比或為流動性提供資金。所以我繼續喜歡說的是——當你查看我們的資產負債表時，你所看到的就是你所得到的。我們的有機成長策略持續取得優異成果。

We launched it at the end of 2018. And when we did, Frost had 131 financial centers across Texas. Around the midpoint of this year, we'll open up our 200th location, and we'll keep going from there by identifying strong markets where our value proposition will make an impact. At the end of the fourth quarter, our overall expansion efforts continue to grow and had generated $2.4 billion in deposits, $1.8 billion in loans. And added more than 59,000 new households. For deposits, loans and households, these represent 101%, 151% and 130% of gold, respectively.

我們在 2018 年底推出了它。當我們這樣做的時候，Frost 已經在德克薩斯州擁有了 131 個金融中心。今年年中左右，我們將開設第 200 家門市，並將繼續前行，尋找能讓我們的價值主張產生影響的強勁市場。截至第四季末，我們的整體擴張力道繼續加大，已產生 24 億美元的存款和 18 億美元的貸款。並新增家庭5.9萬餘戶。對於存款、貸款和家庭而言，這些分別佔黃金的 101%、151% 和 130%。

Our Houston and Dallas efforts continue to perform consistent with what we've reported in the past. We opened our sixth location in the Austin region in the fourth quarter, and we're now approximately one-third through that effort. Early results continue to be very encouraging and in line with the other expansion markets.

我們在休士頓和達拉斯的努力繼續表現與我們過去報導的一致。我們於第四季在奧斯汀地區開設了第六家門市，目前已完成約三分之一。早期業績持續令人鼓舞，並與其他擴張市場保持一致。

As we've mentioned before, the successes of the earlier expansion locations are now funding the current expansion effort. And we expect the overall effort will be accretive to earnings beginning in 2026. As the proverb says, there's a time to sell and a time to read were given their reaping time. And as I've said many times, this strategy is both durable and scalable.

正如我們之前提到的，早期擴張地點的成功正在為當前的擴張工作提供資金。我們預計，從 2026 年開始，整體努力將會增進獲利。正如諺語所說，有賣東西的時候，有讀書的時候，也有收穫的時候。正如我多次說過的，這項策略既持久，又可擴展。

The investments we've made in organic expansion, new products, marketing, technology, and our employees are driving outstanding growth throughout our consumer business. We've had record consumer growth for the year with a $610 million increase in average outstanding balances for consumer loans. This represents a 21% annual growth rate and our third consecutive year of high-quality consumer loan growth of over 20%.

我們在有機擴張、新產品、行銷、技術和員工方面所做的投資，推動了我們整個消費者業務的顯著成長。今年我們的消費成長創下了歷史新高，消費貸款平均未償還餘額增加了 6.1 億美元。這意味著年增長率為21%，這也是我們連續第三年實現優質消費貸款成長率超過20%。

Two-third of the growth comes from our second lien home equity products and the other one-third comes from our new mortgage program that has been nationally recognized for its excellence in customer experience. We funded $75 million in mortgage loans in the fourth quarter. And at the end of 2024, our total one to four mortgage portfolio stood at $259 million.

三分之二的成長來自於我們的第二留置權房屋淨值產品，另外三分之一來自於我們的新抵押貸款計劃，該計劃因其卓越的客戶體驗而獲得全國認可。我們在第四季度提供了 7500 萬美元的抵押貸款。截至 2024 年底，我們一至四級的抵押貸款總額達到 2.59 億美元。

Consumer checking household growth, our measure of customer growth continued its four-year industry-leading run of 6% or greater growth. Consumer deposits, which make up 47% of our company's total deposit base grew 3.2% for the year. We consider this to be excellent deposit growth in an environment of intense competition for deposits. And consumer deposits are now 51% higher than our 2019 pre-COVID balances, a total increase of $6.5 billion over that period. Altogether, this represents an 8.6% compound annual growth rate over the past five years with all of that organic growth.

消費者檢視家庭成長，我們衡量客戶成長的指標繼續保持四年行業領先的 6% 或更高的成長。消費者存款占我們公司總存款基礎的47%，全年成長3.2%。我們認為，在存款競爭激烈的環境下，這是極佳的存款成長。目前，消費者存款比 2019 年疫情前的餘額高出 51%，在此期間共增加了 65 億美元。總而言之，過去五年的複合年增長率為 8.6%，全部是有機成長。

I'm very excited to see the consistency and sustainability of our results over multiple years, and we're working hard to continue on this trajectory. Overall, our investments in organic expansion as well as new products, marketing, technology and our employees are helping drive this outstanding growth across the consumer business.

我很高興看到我們多年來的業績的一致性和可持續性，我們正在努力繼續保持這一軌跡。總體而言，我們在有機擴張以及新產品、行銷、技術和員工方面的投資正在幫助推動整個消費者業務的出色成長。

Now looking at our commercial business, period-end loan balances grew by $1.3 billion or 8.3% year-over-year. CRE balances grew by 11%, energy balances grew by 20% and C&I balances increased by 2.4%. New commercial relationships in 2024 were the highest annual level ever. Even beating the Silicon Valley impacted 2023 level by 1%. For the year, the expansion accounted for 20% of new commercial relationships in 2024. And half of our total new commercial relationships are coming from what we call the two big [deval] banks.

現在看看我們的商業業務，期末貸款餘額年增 13 億美元，成長 8.3%。CRE餘額增加了11%，能源餘額增加了20%，C&I餘額增加了2.4%。2024年新的商業關係將達到有史以來的最高年度水準。即使擊敗矽谷，也會對 2023 年的水準產生 1% 的影響。就今年而言，這項擴張將佔2024年新商業關係的20%。我們新增的商業關係有一半來自所謂的兩大銀行。

New loan commitments totaled $2 billion in the fourth quarter and were up 24% from the third quarter. Finally, new loan opportunities were up 35% from the same quarter a year ago and represented our highest fourth quarter level ever. Our overall credit quality remains good by historical standards with net charge-offs and nonaccruals both at healthy levels. Nonperforming assets totaled $93 million at the end of the fourth quarter compared with $106 million last quarter and $62 million in the fourth quarter of 2023. The quarter end figure represents 45 basis points of period-end loans and 18 basis points of total assets.

第四季新的貸款承諾總額為 20 億美元，較第三季成長 24%。最後，新的貸款機會比去年同期增加了 35％，創下了我們有史以來第四季的最高水準。以歷史標準衡量，我們的整體信用品質仍然良好，淨沖銷和未提列餘額都處於健康水平。截至第四季末，不良資產總額為 9,300 萬美元，而上一季為 1.06 億美元，2023 年第四季為 6,200 萬美元。季末數字代表期末貸款45個基點和總資產18個基點。

Net charge-offs for the quarter were $14 million compared with $9.6 million last quarter and $10.9 million a year ago and annualized net charge-offs for the fourth quarter represented 27 basis points of average loans. Total problem loans, which we define as risk grade 10 OAEM or higher, totaled $943 million at the end of the fourth quarter compared with $839 million at the end of the third quarter.

本季淨沖銷金額為 1,400 萬美元，而上季為 960 萬美元，去年同期為 1,090 萬美元，第四季年化淨沖銷金額相當於平均貸款的 27 個基點。我們將總問題貸款（定義為風險等級 10 OAEM 或更高）定義為第四季末的總問題貸款總額為 9.43 億美元，而第三季末為 8.39 億美元。

Our overall commercial real estate lending portfolio remains stable with steady operating performance across all types and acceptable debt service coverage ratios, our loan-to-value levels are similar to what we reported in prior quarters.

我們的整體商業房地產貸款組合保持穩定，所有類型的經營業績穩定，債務償還覆蓋率可接受，我們的貸款價值水平與前幾季報告的水平相似。

When you put all that together, these results demonstrate what happens when you combine Frost values with the right strategies and the best banking markets in the United States and provide the best customer experiences with the best team anywhere. We are very well positioned to move ahead into 2025 and to extend the Frost value proposition to more customers around the state.

將所有這些結合起來，這些結果表明，當您將 Frost 價值觀與正確的策略和美國最佳銀行市場相結合，並透過最好的團隊提供最佳客戶體驗時，將會發生怎樣的情況。我們已做好準備，邁向 2025 年，並​​將 Frost 價值主張擴展到全州更多的客戶。

And with that, I'll turn it over to Dan.

現在我將把話題交給丹。

Thank you, Phil. Let me start off by giving some additional color on our expansion results. As Phil mentioned, we continue to be pleased with the volumes we've been able to achieve. Looking at the fourth quarter, Linked quarter growth and expansion average loans and deposits were $130 million and $128 million, respectively, representing 32% and 22% annualized growth.

謝謝你，菲爾。首先，讓我對我們的擴張結果做一些補充說明。正如菲爾所提到的，我們對已經取得的成果感到非常滿意。縱觀第四季度，季增和擴張平均貸款和存款分別為 1.3 億美元和 1.28 億美元，年化成長率分別為 32% 和 22%。

Now moving to the fourth quarter financial performance for the company. Regarding the net interest margin, through fourth quarter, net interest income was up $9 million or 2.3% on a linked-quarter basis. Our net interest margin percentage was down 3 basis points to 3.53% from the 3.56% reported last quarter. Our net interest margin percentage was negatively impacted by lower rates on balances held at the Fed in loans and offset by higher volumes of balances at the Fed and loans, together with lower rates on deposits.

現在來看看該公司第四季的財務表現。至於淨利差，截至第四季度，淨利息收入較上季增加 900 萬美元，即 2.3%。我們的淨利差百分比從上季報告的 3.56% 下降 3 個基點至 3.53%。我們的淨利差百分比受到聯準會貸款餘額利率下降的負面影響，但被聯準會餘額和貸款金額的增加以及存款利率的下降所抵銷。

Looking at our investment portfolio. The total investment portfolio averaged $18.6 billion during the fourth quarter, down $257 million from the prior quarter. During the fourth quarter, investment purchases totaled $840 million with $754 million being Agency MBS securities yielding 5.8% and $64 million being municipals with a taxable equivalent yield of 5.35%.

看看我們的投資組合。第四季總投資組合平均為 186 億美元，較上一季下降 2.57 億美元。第四季度，投資購買總額為 8.4 億美元，其中 7.54 億美元為機構 MBS 證券，收益率為 5.8%，6,400 萬美元為市政債券，應稅等值收益率為 5.35%。

I'll note that approximately $500 million of the Agency MBS yielding 5.91% that we purchased did not settle until January 21, 2025. During the quarter, we had $500 million of treasuries mature at an average yield of 0.96%. The net unrealized loss on the available-for-sale portfolio at the end of the quarter was $1.56 billion, an increase of $429 million from the $1.13 billion reported at the end of the third quarter.

我要指出的是，我們購買的收益率為 5.91% 的機構 MBS 中約有 5 億美元直到 2025 年 1 月 21 日才結算。本季，我們有 5 億美元公債到期，平均殖利率為 0.96%。本季末可供出售資產組合的淨未實現損失為 15.6 億美元，較第三季末報告的 11.3 億美元增加 4.29 億美元。

The tax flow equivalent yield on the total investment portfolio during the quarter was 3.44%, up 4 basis points from the third quarter. The taxable portfolio, which averaged $12.1 billion, down approximately $149 million from the prior quarter at a yield of 2.99%, up 5 basis points from the prior quarter.

本季總投資組合的稅流等值收益率為3.44%，較第三季上升4個基點。應稅投資組合平均為 121 億美元，較上一季下降約 1.49 億美元，收益率為 2.99%，較上一季上升 5 個基點。

Our tax-exempt municipal portfolio averaged $6.5 billion during the fourth quarter down $108 million from the third quarter and had a taxable equivalent yield of 4.33%, up 1 basis points from the prior quarter. At the end of the fourth quarter, approximately 69% of the municipal portfolio was pre-refunded or PSF insured. The duration of the investment portfolio at the end of the fourth quarter was 5.7 years, up from 5.4 years in the third quarter.

我們免稅市政投資組合在第四季平均為 65 億美元，較第三季下降 1.08 億美元，應稅等值收益率為 4.33%，較上一季上升 1 個基點。截至第四季末，約有 69% 的市政投資組合已獲得預先償還或 PSF 保險。第四季末投資組合久期為5.7年，高於第三季的5.4年。

Looking at funding sources. On a linked-quarter basis, average total deposits of $41.9 billion were up $1.2 billion from the previous quarter. The linked quarter growth was roughly half in money markets, one-third in noninterest-bearing accounts with the remainder being savings in IOC accounts. Average noninterest-bearing demand deposits were up $393 million or 2.9% over the third quarter while interest-bearing deposits increased $759 million or 2.8% when compared to the previous quarter.

查看資金來源。按季度計算，平均總存款為 419 億美元，較上一季增加 12 億美元。環比季度的成長大約有一半來自貨幣市場，三分之一來自無息帳戶，其餘為 IOC 帳戶的儲蓄。平均無息活期存款較第三季增加 3.93 億美元，增幅 2.9%，而計息存款較上一季增加 7.59 億美元，增幅 2.8%。

The cost of interest-bearing deposits in the fourth quarter was 2.14%, and down 27 basis points from 2.41% in the third quarter. Thus far in January, both current and month-to-date average deposits are in line with fourth quarter averages. Customer repos for the fourth quarter averaged $3.9 billion, up $168 million from the third quarter. The cost of customer repos for the quarter was 3.34%, down 38 basis points from the third quarter.

第四季計息存款成本為2.14%，較第三季的2.41%下降27個基點。截至目前，一月份當前和月初至今的平均存款都與第四季的平均水準一致。第四季顧客回購平均為 39 億美元，較第三季增加 1.68 億美元。本季顧客回購成本為3.34%，較第三季下降38個基點。

Looking at noninterest income and expense, I'll point out a couple of seasonal items impacting the linked quarter results. Regarding other noninterest income, as in years past, we received our normal annual Visa bonus during the fourth quarter totaling $4.6 million. Salaries and wages, including -- included approximately $8 million in higher stock compensation compared to the third quarter.

查看非利息收入和支出，我會指出幾個影響相關季度業績的季節性項目。至於其他非利息收入，與過去幾年一樣，我們在第四季度收到了正常的年度 Visa 獎金，總額為 460 萬美元。工資和薪金，包括—與第三季相比增加約 800 萬美元的股票補償。

As a reminder, our stock awards are granted in October of each year and some awards by their nature, require immediate expense recognition. Regarding our guidance for full year 2025. Our current outlook includes 225 basis point cuts for the Fed funds rate in 2025 with a cut in June and September. Given that, we expect net interest income growth for the full year in the range of 4% to 6%.

提醒一下，我們的股票獎勵每年 10 月頒發，有些獎勵根據其性質需要立即確認費用。關於我們對 2025 年全年的指導。我們目前的預測包括 2025 年聯邦基金利率將下調 225 個基點，分別在 6 月和 9 月下調。有鑑於此，我們預計全年淨利息收入成長率將在4%至6%之間。

For net interest margin, we expect an improvement of around 10 basis points compared to our net interest margin of 3.53% for 2024. Looking at loans and deposits, we expect full year average loan growth to be in the mid to high single digits and expect full year average deposits to be up between 2% and 3%. Based on current projections, we are projecting growth in noninterest income in the range of 1% to 2% and noninterest expense to be in the high single digits.

對於淨利差，我們預計與 2024 年 3.53% 的淨利差相比，將提高約 10 個基點。從貸款和存款來看，我們預計全年平均貸款成長率將達到中高個位數，而全年平均存款成長率預計在 2% 至 3% 之間。根據目前的預測，我們預計非利息收入將成長 1% 至 2%，非利息支出將達到高個位數。

Regarding net charge-offs, we expect full year 2025 to be similar to 2024 and in the range of 20 basis points to 25 basis points of average loans. Regarding taxes, we currently expect the full year 2025 to come in between 15% and 16%.

至於淨沖銷，我們預計 2025 年全年將與 2024 年類似，平均貸款金額將在 20 個基點至 25 個基點之間。關於稅收，我們目前預計 2025 年全年稅率將在 15% 至 16% 之間。

With that, I'll turn the call over to Phil for questions.

說完這些，我將把電話轉給菲爾來回答問題。

Thank you, Dan. We'll open the call up now for questions.

謝謝你，丹。我們現在開始回答問題。

(Operator Instructions) Manan Gosalia, Morgan Stanley.

（操作員指示） 摩根士丹利的 Manan Gosalia。

I wanted to start on loan growth. The guide for mid- to high single-digit loan growth. It implies a little bit of a slowdown from last year. But judging by your comments, they were all fairly positive in terms of new commercial relationships, new loan commitments. So wanted to get a sense if there's any conservatism baked in there? Or are we just growing off of a higher base, which is driving that slowdown? Any thoughts you can share there would be great?

我想要從貸款成長開始。中高個位數貸款成長指南。這意味著與去年相比，成長略有放緩。但從您的評論來看，他們在新的商業關係、新的貸款承諾方面都持相當積極的態度。所以想了解其中是否存在保守主義？或者我們只是在較高的基礎上成長，從而導致了經濟放緩？有什麼想法可以分享嗎？

Thanks. I would say without getting too granular about it. Overall, I would expect really good consumer loan growth to continue. That's the point where it's seen a little over 15% of our portfolio and the growth there has been, I think, a 20% plus growth for nine quarters in a row. I think C&I growth has been interesting in terms of what we've seen there. And I think that's going to continue to be good, especially based on what we've seen in new opportunities.

謝謝。我想說的是，不必太詳細地闡述這一點。總體而言，我預計消費貸款將繼續保持良好的成長勢頭。此時，它占我們投資組合的 15% 多一點，而且我認為，連續 9 個季度的成長率都超過了 20%。我認為，從我們所看到的情況來看，C&I 的成長非常有趣。我認為情況會繼續向好，特別是基於我們所看到的新機會。

And I think the slowdown if it happens, would be with CRE, where you've got -- we haven't had the same velocity of new deals, particularly in multifamily and portal office. And what you're seeing with a lot of the growth we've had over the last several quarters has been really funding of deals that were put in place really a couple of years ago.

我認為，如果發生這種情況，放緩的將是商業地產，我們的新交易速度並不相同，特別是在多戶住宅和門戶辦公室領域。而我們看到的過去幾季的成長其實都是對幾年前達成的交易的融資。

And so that I expect to slow a little bit of a headwind. I think maybe see that in the single digit -- low single-digit area. But that's really all I would say. I think we're really expecting to have a pretty good year with regard to loan growth and absent the slowdown with the CRE fundings that you'll see. It should be pretty good.

因此我預計逆風會稍微減緩。我認為也許可以在個位數——低個位數區域看到這一點。但這確實是我想說的全部。我認為，我們確實預計今年的貸款成長將會相當不錯，而且商業房地產融資也不會出現放緩的跡象。應該還不錯。

And are there any paydowns being factored in on that CRE side? Or is it just a function of the value of the curve is higher, and therefore, you expect lower demand there?

那麼，在 CRE 方面是否考慮了任何償還因素？或者它只是曲線值較高的函數，因此，您預期那裡的需求較低？

I think it's going to be more of a factor of expected paydowns that we have some projects, as Phil mentioned, that have funded up. And just by their very nature, we're primarily an interim construction lender. We help you get the projects built and stabilized and now they're likely ready to be either sold or moved into a permanent loan. So that's really just the factor.

我認為，這將更多地成為預期回報的一個因素，正如菲爾所提到的，我們的一些項目已經獲得了資金。從本質上來說，我們主要是一個臨時建設貸款機構。我們幫助您建造和穩定項目，現在它們很可能被出售或轉為永久貸款。所以這確實只是一個因素。

And then what Phil mentioned earlier is we're looking at a fair amount of commercial real estate loans, but are -- we're just not booking at the same rate. They're just -- with interest rates higher for longer, they're a little harder to pin out -- and we're not going to itemize our credit quality either.

然後菲爾之前提到的是，我們正在考慮相當數量的商業房地產貸款，但是 - 我們的登記利率並不相同。只是——由於利率長期處於高位，因此更難確定——而且我們不會逐項列出我們的信用品質。

Will Jones, KBW.

威爾瓊斯，KBW。

Filling in for Kathryn Miller this afternoon. Just wanted to keep follow-up on that balance sheet growth conversation. It sounds like with the outlook for loan growth, maybe outpacing what you expect on the deposit side. Do you feel like the the investment portfolio really will hold more flat? Like in other terms, you don't expect to be a net purchaser of securities in 2025?

今天下午代替凱瑟琳米勒。只是想繼續關注資產負債表成長的對話。聽起來貸款成長的前景可能會超過你對存款方面的預期。您是否覺得投資組合真的會保持更穩定？換句話說，您不預期 2025 年會成為證券的淨購買者嗎？

Right now, we've had this, I'll call it, kind of optionality with our balance sheet, with our liquidity rates being close to 20%. And so we're going to look to invest some of that in the first quarter. And so you can look for our purchases to accelerate here in the first quarter of securities. We feel like we can utilize some of that liquidity to both support loan growth, as you mentioned, but also take advantage of the -- what the yield curve is giving us right now and with it being more positively sloping.

目前，我們的資產負債表具有這種可選性，我們的流動性利率接近 20%。因此，我們將考慮在第一季投資其中的一部分。因此，您可以看到我們在第一季的證券購買量加速。我們覺得我們可以利用部分流動性來支持貸款成長（正如您所說），同時也可以利用殖利率曲線目前帶給我們的優勢，以及它更積極的傾斜度。

Yeah. Okay. And any way to quantify how aggressive you guys may be and kind of taking down from your liquidity?

是的。好的。有什麼方法可以量化你們的積極性以及如何降低你們的流動性？

Yeah. So we're looking at about a little over $2 billion in securities that will either mature or expect to be called or for prepayments. And so we'll have that available to use. And so we're looking at around a $4 billion investment purchase strategy in 2025 with utilizing about half of that in the first quarter.

是的。因此，我們正在考慮大約 20 億美元以上的證券，這些證券要么到期，要么預計被贖回，要么預付款。這樣我們就可以使用它了。因此，我們正在考慮在 2025 年實施約 40 億美元的投資購買策略，其中約一半將在第一季使用。

Okay. Great. That's awesome color. And just switching over to the margin and NII guidance. Just in terms of deposit betas, I know last quarter, we had kind of talked about landing in the 45% range, full cycle just just really kind of matching what you're able to do on the out cycle.

好的。偉大的。那是非常棒的顏色。只需切換到保證金和 NII 指導。就存款貝塔係數而言，我知道上個季度，我們曾討論過達到 45% 的範圍，整個週期實際上與您在外部週期中能夠做的事情相匹配。

But if you look at where deposit costs came in this quarter, I mean you've already really nearly matched that beta -- so I guess the question is, did you kind of view that more as a pull forward bid? I know we talked about maybe a little bit of a lag effect.

但是，如果您查看本季度的存款成本，我的意思是您實際上已經幾乎匹配了該測試版 - 因此，我想問題是，您是否將其更多地視為一種提前出價？我知道我們討論過可能存在一點滯後效應。

But do you see like maybe you pulled forward a little bit of that beta this quarter and you kind of see that stabilize as growth picks up for the industry next year and deposit cost position is a little more fierce? Or -- do you feel like that beta has a little bit more staying power and you could even outperform on deposit costs as we move to this year?

但是，您是否認為本季度的測試版可能會有所提前，並且隨著明年行業增長的加快和存款成本形勢的嚴峻，您是否認為這種情況會趨於穩定？或者—您是否覺得該測試版具有更強的持久力，隨著今年的到來，您的存款成本甚至可以超越預期？

I do think that, that deposit beta will be in that 45% range on a cumulative basis. So I don't think we're too far off. And we're going to listen to the customers and competition and see what we need to do in terms of pricing for our deposit products. But right now, we feel good about -- we treated customers fairly on the way up, and we're kind of continuing that trend on the way down.

我確實認為，存款貝塔值累計將在 45% 的範圍內。所以我不認為我們相差太遠。我們將傾聽客戶和競爭對手的意見，看看我們在存款產品定價方面需要做些什麼。但現在，我們感覺很好——我們在上升的過程中公平地對待客戶，在下降的過程中我們也延續了這種趨勢。

Yeah. Okay. And then, just lastly for me. I know when we talked historically in terms of each cut, have about $1 million a month impact NII. Do you guys still see it the same way? Is that still how we should kind of think about how rates have an initial impact to the income statement?

是的。好的。然後，對我來說，這是最後一個了。我知道，當我們從歷史上看，每次削減都會對 NII 產生每月約 100 萬美元的影響。你們還這麼認為嗎？我們是否仍應該這樣思考利率對損益表的初步影響？

Yeah. I think it's around about $1.7 million. That's kind of where we plan for that cut for one.

是的。我認為大約是 170 萬美元。這就是我們計劃削減的一點。

Yeah. I'd just say that's other things equal number there. So be careful with that. It remains to be seen what happens with deposits, positive or negative with all of that. So yeah. Well, the number is accurate. It is what it is. It's pretty linear in terms of the arithmetic. What else happens in the balance sheet and around all that remains to be seen. Just always need to say that.

是的。我只想說，其他事物的數量都相等。所以要小心這一點。所有這些對於存款會產生什麼影響（是正面影響還是負面影響）還有待觀察。是的。嗯，數字是準確的。就是這樣。從算術角度來說，它是相當線性的。資產負債表和周圍還會發生什麼還有待觀察。只是一直需要這麼說。

Ben Gerlinger, Citi.

花旗銀行的本‧格林格 (Ben Gerlinger)。

I think you guys said you start -- you opened your six branch in Austin. I mean you have probably another dozen more to go. And then '26 is the filling year.

我想你們說過你們開始——你們在奧斯汀開設了六家分店。我的意思是你可能還要再去十幾個。然後 26 年就是充實的一年。

When you think about just kind of growth in expenses, do you think kind of -- I know you're not going to get '26 guidance in '25, but what we should see this year should be kind of replicated a gain on growth and then expenses of '26 -- or is there something that's being pulled forward in the expense phase to get to the high single-digit records?

當您考慮費用的增長時，您是否會認為 - 我知道您不會在 25 年獲得 26 年的指導，但今年我們應該看到的應該是複製 26 年的增長和費用增長 - 或者是否有某些東西在費用階段被提前以達到高個位數的記錄？

When I'm looking at '25, we're continuing to invest in technology and a lot of it is replacing legacy systems that we'll continue to do '25 and prior to '26. And then also just in terms of compliance, cybersecurity and then the people and our continued expansion.

展望25年，我們將繼續在技術方面進行投資，其中很大一部分將用於取代舊系統，我們將在25年和26年之前繼續這樣做。然後還包括合規性、網路安全以及人員和我們持續擴張方面。

So I think in terms of -- we've done a lot of the heavy lifting, I would say, in terms of a lot of the people component. And so that pace of growth in terms of us building out that infrastructure, especially in IT. And then you'll see growth relative to our growth and the expansion in terms of people.

所以我認為，就人員要素而言，我們已經做了很多繁重的工作。因此，我們建立基礎架構（尤其是 IT 基礎架構）的成長速度是驚人的。然後你會看到相對於我們的成長和人員擴張的成長。

But I think we feel good about that we've -- we're compensating people fairly and competitively and our benefits are in line with the market and actually really strong. So it's a great value proposition to have -- and we experienced kind of lower attrition than the industry. So that investment is paying off. But if that gives you enough color for '25, I hope it does.

但我認為我們對此感到滿意——我們為員工提供公平且有競爭力的薪酬，我們的福利與市場保持一致，而且實際上非常豐厚。所以這是一項很有價值的主張──我們的員工流動率比整個產業都要低。因此這項投資正在獲得回報。但如果這能為 25 年增添足夠的色彩，我希望如此。

Yeah. No, I want to understand, you guys are in growth mode. So it makes sense that you're investing. And then Phil or whoever wants to field the question, when you think about competition in the market, some of the banks that have seen a better pace of growth, whether it be footprint extension or expansion or just a faster growth in general kind of cited people or other banks or frankly, nonbanks, more aggressive in the space.

是的。不，我想了解，你們正處於成長模式。因此你的投資是有意義的。然後，菲爾或任何想回答這個問題的人，當你考慮市場競爭時，一些銀行已經看到了更好的增長速度，無論是足跡擴展還是擴張，或者只是總體上更快的增長，引用的人或其他銀行或坦率地說，非銀行，在這個領域更積極。

I was just kind of curious, is it largely just rate that isn't -- or is there something beyond that where the competition is increasing. I know you're not change your box on credit republics, but -- have you seen an increased pace in competition over the past 60 to 90 days?

我只是有點好奇，這是否主要只是利率問題——或者是否有其他因素導致競爭加劇。我知道您不會改變對信用共和國的看法，但是——在過去 60 到 90 天內，您是否看到競爭步伐加快了？

I would say the short answer is yeah, we have. And a few things going on. Some is from banks and some are -- is from nonbanks. The banks, I think, really represents from banks that had sort of put their pencils down on, let's say, the commercial real estate side. And for the good deals that you're seeing, you're seeing at least anecdotally, what I've seen on some of the deals we've lost, there's been sort of a drifting back some of these pre-COVID underwriting methodologies, which is kind of basically more money longer term. No guarantees kind of thing and pricing lower.

我的回答是，是的，我們有。還有一些事情正在發生。一些來自銀行，一些來自非銀行。我認為，這些銀行實際上代表了那些在商業房地產領域投入大量資金的銀行。對於您所看到的好交易，至少從傳聞來看，我看到我們失去的一些交易，有些已經回落到 COVID 之前的一些承保方法，這基本上意味著長期內可以賺更多的錢。沒有任何保證，而且價格較低。

That's always going to be the case. And that will come in in wages, and then we'll receive a (inaudible). So that's one thing. I think the other thing that's a little bit different over the last thre months from what I've seen, as you've seen more private equity engage in the marketplace, the main place that we've seen that, and actually, it's been kind of a good thing in the short term has been private equity around real estate, commercial real estate bridge financing and mostly seeing that in the multifamily projects.

情況總是這樣的。這些錢會以工資的形式進來，然後我們會得到（聽不清楚）。這是一回事。我認為，與過去三個月的情況略有不同，您會看到更多私募股權參與市場，我們看到的主要情況是，實際上，短期內這是一件好事，即圍繞房地產、商業房地產過橋融資的私募股權，主要體現在多戶型項目中。

And the value proposition they typically give is the rate is not all that different, really, a little bit higher. They don't have the same rigorous criteria, at least the ones I've seen on debt service coverage ratios, maybe amortization or interest only. It's really -- it's in there to get that project where it is today to a stabilized situation.

他們通常給出的價值主張是利率並沒有太大差別，實際上只是稍微高一點。他們沒有同樣嚴格的標準，至少是我所見過的關於債務償還覆蓋率的標準，可能是攤銷或只是利息。它確實 — — 可以使該項目達到今天的穩定狀態。

Why don't you get to stabilization, and then you can see an agency lender, maybe a traditional permanent lender come in, that kind of thing. So a lot of options or sale. Cap rates are still really good for the multifamilies.

為什麼你不去穩定局面，然後你會看到一個代理貸款人，也許是一個傳統的永久貸款人介入，諸如此類。因此有很多選擇或銷售。對於多戶住宅來說，資本化率仍然非常好。

But that asset class has got well-known headwinds that it's been up against whether it's been higher rates, higher operating costs, more supply, which means slower lease-up and now they've got -- they're actually leasing up, but they're using more free rent. And all those things put pressure on the traditional bank metrics of debt service coverage ratio, et cetera. But if you just get to that stabilization, just get to that breakeven or a little bit higher on the coverage and the cash, man, there are lots of options available.

但眾所周知，該資產類別面臨著許多阻力，包括利率上升、營運成本上升、供應增加（這意味著租賃速度放緩），而現在他們實際上在租賃，但他們使用了更多的免租。所有這些都給傳統銀行的債務償還率等指標帶來了壓力。但如果你只是達到了穩定狀態，只是達到了收支平衡，或者保險範圍和現金稍微高一點，那麼就有很多可用的選擇。

So that's a positive that we've seen. I think as we've asked ourselves, okay, well, where is this going? What might we be sorry about with the private equity entrance three years from now, it's probably that you're beginning to see them show up on some of the more, what I'll call, traditional construction lending, development lending.

這是我們看到的正面現象。我想正如我們問過自己的那樣，好吧，這將走向何方？三年後，私募股權的進入可能會讓我們感到遺憾，因為你可能會開始看到它們出現在一些我稱之為傳統的建築貸款和開發貸款的領域。

And so there's a lot of money in that industry, and they're looking for things to do, and I think we'll see them more over time. But right now, that's kind of what we've seen competitively and as I said, in the case of the private equity and multifamily, is a good thing for us and for the lenders right now -- and borrowers.

因此，該行業有很多資金，他們正在尋找可以做的事情，我認為隨著時間的推移，我們會看到更多這樣的事情。但目前，這就是我們在競爭中看到的情況，正如我所說，就私募股權和多戶住宅而言，這對我們以及目前的貸方和借款人來說都是一件好事。

Peter Winter, D.A. Davidson.

彼得溫特（Peter Winter），地方檢察官戴維森。

I wanted to ask about the capital strategies going forward? Obviously, top priority is organic growth, but you did announce a share buyback. I'm just curious how active you plan to be with the buyback? And secondly, if there's any thought of maybe retiring some of the preferred securities as a use of capital?

我想問一下未來的資本策略嗎？顯然，首要任務是有機成長，但你們確實宣布了股票回購。我只是好奇您計劃如何積極地進行回購？其次，是否有考慮退出部分優先證券作為資本用途？

I would say right now, our focus is really plain vanilla. Maintain the dividend, keeping that solid. I think we've increased it for 31 years and Jerry Salinas has just retired at the beginning of the year and his parting words were, keep the dividend strong. So he's looking on the call right now and he'd be banging the table.

我想說現在我們的重點真的是普通的。維持股息，維持穩定。我想我們已經連續 31 年增加股息了，傑瑞薩利納斯剛剛在今年年初退休，他的臨別贈言是，保持強勁的股息。所以他現在正在看電話，而且他會敲桌子。

But -- so it's that -- we want to make sure we've got plenty of room for growth. And as far as other things, like you mentioned, the buyback is totally opportunistic. We utilized about -- what was it, down $50 million.

但 — — 就是這樣 — — 我們要確保我們有足夠的成長空間。至於其他事情，就像您提到的，回購完全是機會主義的。我們利用了大約——大約 5000 萬美元。

That's right.

這是正確的。

I think we bought in around $100 or so. And so it's been good for shareholders. But frankly, I hope not to have the opportunity to buy low on the company stock, really. And then with regard to the preferred, you just have to look at it and see what the numbers say. I'm -- just to be honest, we haven't really talked about it. But since you asked, we'll look at it. But thanks for the heads up on it.

我認為我們購買的價格大約是 100 美元左右。這對股東來說是件好事。但坦白說，我真的希望不要有機會以低價買該公司的股票。然後，對於優先股，你只需要看一下它，看看數字代表什麼。我——說實話，我們還沒有真正談論過這個問題。但既然你問了，我們就會考慮一下。但還是感謝您的提醒。

And then if we could just go back to expenses. I hear you about the investments that you're making with the branch build-out and the investments in technology. I'm just surprised it's probably a little bit higher than what I was expecting just thinking that it was going to moderate more than what we've seen the last few years, and it's still pretty elevated. I'm just wondering, just outlook with expenses, when we should see it kind of moderate from these type of levels.

然後我們可以回到費用問題。我聽說了您在分支機構建設和技術投資方面所做的投資。我只是感到驚訝，它可能比我預期的要高一點，我只是認為它會比我們過去幾年看到的更加溫和，但它仍然相當高。我只是想知道，從費用角度來看，我們什麼時候才能看到它從這種水平趨於緩和。

The way we look at this is that these are investments that are going to set us up on this path of growth that we're on. And so certainly, we're going to look at 2026 as a time when we could see some abatement in that growth. And I had -- I look back and kind of look at our expense growth over the last four years and if I take out the FDIC limit from '21 to '22 as 16% and then 15% and then 10% and then now we're guiding kind of high single digits, so it's trending in the right direction. But -- and we're certainly mindful of expenses.

我們的看法是，這些投資將幫助我們走上當前的成長道路。因此，我們肯定會將 2026 年視為成長速度減緩的時期。我回顧並研究了過去四年我們的支出成長情況，如果我從 21 年到 22 年去掉 FDIC 限額，分別為 16%、15%、10%，那麼現在我們引導的是一個較高的個位數，所以它正朝著正確的方向發展。但是——我們當然非常注意開支。

We're not -- just everything that any new FTE or CapEx over $100,000 still goes by my desk and Phil's for approval. So we're watching expenses where we can, but we're certainly -- there's certainly a risk of not making these investments as well. And so we're well on our way to replacing these legacy systems that if we didn't, we would regret it in the future.

我們不是 — — 任何超過 100,000 美元的新 FTE 或資本支出仍需經過我的和 Phil 的批准。因此，我們正在盡可能地關注開支，但不進行這些投資肯定也存在風險。因此，我們正在順利替換這些遺留系統，如果我們不這樣做，我們將來會後悔。

Peter, we're a pretty conservative group. And -- it kind of makes the hair stand up on the back of your neck when you look at how much money we're spending. I mean, just to be perfectly honest. I mean everything that we look at is there's a lot of accountability with it, and we are certain it's helping us get better. It's helping us grow. It's helping us reduce risk.

彼得，我們是一個非常保守的群體。而且──當你看到我們花了多少錢的時候，你會覺得後頸的汗毛都豎起來了。我只是想完全誠實地說。我的意思是，我們所關注的每件事都有很大的責任，而且我們確信這會幫助我們變得更好。它正在幫助我們成長。它正在幫助我們降低風險。

And so -- and as someone said earlier, we're in a growth mode, and we are. So -- and we've been building that up, right? So there's been some foundational things that we've done. But Dan and I and the management team spend a lot of time talking about it. We're not happy with this level of expense growth. But I don't think we're doing anything wrong with it.

所以 — — 正如之前有人所說的，我們正處於成長模式，事實也確實如此。所以——我們一直在建立這個機制，對吧？我們已經做了一些基礎性的事情。但丹、我和管理團隊花了很多時間討論這個問題。我們對這種程度的費用成長感到不滿。但我不認為我們做錯了什麼。

It's just we'd like to see it moderate some because like I said in my comments, there's time for sowing it and time for reaping it, and we really are looking forward to getting to that point, that reaping point and to do that most effectively, we're going to have to bring those expenses down to a more moderate level.

我們只是希望看到它有所緩和，因為就像我在評論中所說的那樣，播種需要時間，收穫也需要時間，我們真的期待到達那個點，那個收穫點，而為了最有效地做到這一點，我們必須將這些費用降低到一個更適中的水平。

I don't think that we're going to be in the mode of just cutting expenses or just growing at inflation because we are growing. I mean and I like that, and we want to do that. But as far as where we are right now, I mean our sense is that we're kind of choosing now what we had to do to this point. But we're really looking forward to getting returns on these investments, and we'll do that. Our team and our company will do that.

我認為我們不會只是採取削減開支或僅隨著通貨膨脹而成長的模式，因為我們正在成長。我的意思是我喜歡這樣，我們也想這樣做。但就我們目前的狀況而言，我的意思是我們的感覺是，我們現在正在選擇我們必須做什麼。但我們確實期待從這些投資中獲得回報，我們會這樣做。我們的團隊和我們公司將會做到這一點。

And just looking at where we're in money, we have our investments in technology, it's kind of the digital experience, modernization and transformation. We're looking, as I mentioned, security, fraud and compliance risk management. And then as Phil mentioned, we're just -- we're a growing company. And we're adding more branches, more people and more products with our mortgage product.

看看我們的資金狀況，我們在技術方面進行了投資，這是一種數位體驗、現代化和轉型。正如我所提到的，我們正在關注安全、詐欺和合規風險管理。正如菲爾所提到的，我們只是──我們是一家成長中的公司。而且我們正在增加更多的分行、更多的人員和更多的抵押貸款產品。

That's perfect. And just to be clear, the expense growth of high single digit is on a GAAP basis for '24. Is that correct?

那很完美。需要明確的是，高個位數的費用成長是基於 24 年的 GAAP 基礎。那正確嗎？

Yes.

是的。

Jon Arfstrom, RBC Capital Markets.

加拿大皇家銀行資本市場 (RBC Capital Markets) 的 Jon Arfstrom。

Question back on loan growth. You got some pretty strong pipeline growth. And I'm just curious what you're thinking on what would bring you in at the lower end of the range, what would take you to the higher end of the range?

關於貸款成長的問題。您的管道成長非常強勁。我只是好奇，您認為什麼會讓您處於範圍的低端，什麼會讓您處於範圍的高端？

I'm just going to throw out, payoffs in commercial real estate. I mean there are a lot of people looking to utilize some of this private equity bridge financing and some people sell them things if they can't, but I'd say, it's mainly payoffs.

我只是想提一下商業房地產的回報。我的意思是，很多人希望利用這種私募股權過橋融資，如果他們不能利用，有些人就會向他們出售東西，但我想說，這主要是為了獲得回報。

For example, let's take this quarter, I think we moved five multifamily deals to risk grade (inaudible), okay? So that's a problem loan category. But I'm not worried about any of them because most of them, 60% of them are in the process of working with private equity to pay it off.

例如，以本季為例，我認為我們將五個多戶型交易提升到了風險等級（聽不清楚），好嗎？所以這是一個問題貸款類別。但我並不擔心他們中的任何一個，因為他們中的大多數（60%）都在與私募股權合作償還債務。

There are -- they're going to work out, but part of them working out is those balances are going to leave, right? So if we had those five left, that'd probably be -- I'm going to guess around numbers, $150 million. So -- so if we see a lot of that, that could be sort of a onetime push down. That would be my main thing that I could see we're bringing it to little end.

有——他們會解決問題，但解決問題的一部分是這些餘額會消失，對嗎？所以如果我們還剩下這五個，那可能就是——我猜大概是 1.5 億美元。所以 — — 如果我們看到很多這樣的情況，那可能是一次性的壓制。這是我能看到的最主要的事情，我們正在將其結束。

The high end is, you know who knows. I think that the economy has been really picked up and activity has really picked up after the election. And you've eliminated some of that uncertainty that where we -- we think C&I loans go down for, I think, four months in a row, leading up the election. I think they're up every month since.

高端就是，你知道誰知道。我認為選舉之後經濟確實已經回暖，經濟活動也確實已經回升。而且你已經消除了一些不確定性，我們認為，在選舉前，商業和工業貸款將連續四個月下降。我認為自此以後它們每個月都在上漲。

And so that's just beginning, and we'll see where that takes us. I don't think anybody knows it right now. But I think we do get just more activity and you get -- I hate to use the word animal spirits, but those find their way into people doing projects, and that's a real thing. We can see it maybe be a little higher.

這才剛開始，我們拭目以待吧。我認為現在沒人知道這一點。但我認為我們確實獲得了更多的活動，而且你會得到——我不喜歡使用“動物精神”這個詞，但這些精神會以自己的方式進入到做項目的人身上，這是真實存在的。我們可以看到它可能會稍微高一些。

I guess you might see energies grow a little bit there. It's been pretty -- it's grown a little bit in the near term, that always moves around a bit on what our borrowers are doing. But stuff like that, I think it would just see, in general, the water level would go up. That would be it.

我想你可能會看到那裡的能量有所增長。它一直很漂亮——它在短期內有所增長，這總是根據我們的借款人的行為而略有變化。但諸如此類的情況，我認為一般來說，水位會上升。就這樣吧。

When you guys say mid to high, you're you're saying 5% to 9% basically. And maybe it's safe to be in the middle. I don't want to pin you down, but that's the way I'm thinking about it?

當你們說中高時，基本上是指 5％ 到 9％。也許處於中間才是安全的。我不想給你出難題，但我就是這麼想的？

That's a good range.

這是一個很好的範圍。

Okay. And to use full year average or period end, I know we're getting ticky-tacky, but?

好的。要使用全年平均值或期末平均值，我知道我們變得很吝嗇，但是？

That's full year average.

這是全年平均值。

Full year average, okay. And then on noninterest income, you guys had a strong year, and you pulled back the growth rate a little bit. But anything you would call out in the '24 growth rates in the big categories, trust investment management, insurance interchange. Anything you would call out as unsustainable. It just seems like you could do a little better than -- I'm just curious on your guide?

全年平均值還行。在非利息收入方面，你們今年表現強勁，並且將成長率略微回落了一些。但是，您會在 24 個大類別的成長率中提到任何內容，包括信託投資管理、保險交換。任何你認為不可持續的事物。看起來你可以做得更好一點——我只是對你的指南很好奇？

I guess one thing I'll point out is Capital Markets had a tremendous year in '24. And so we're not necessarily expecting to duplicate that. We underwrote a lot of bond offerings here in Texas. And so they had a great year. That's one notable.

我想指出的一點是，資本市場在 2024 年表現十分出色。因此我們不一定期望重複這一點。我們在德州承銷了很多債券發行。他們度過了美好的一年。這是值得注意的一點。

The other is just a little bit of unknown of interchange and overdraft regulation and when that kicks in. And so we have that baked into our '25 growth as well.

另一點是對互換和透支監管以及何時開始生效存在一些未知。我們也將其融入了我們25年的成長中。

Ebrahim Poonawala, Bank of America.

美國銀行的 Ebrahim Poonawala。

Just one follow-up. I heard you on [refreshes] so getting some, I guess, payoff from all these investments -- but just talk about -- you talked about 200 branches this year, 131 in 2019. Based on I'm sure the work you all have done, is that enough? Or is there a point 2 years from now where you could go from 200 to 250? Just would love to hear your thoughts about how much you max the market opportunity with this branch expansion. And is there more to go? And is there a reason why you're not doing that today versus down the road?

僅一個後續行動。我聽說您在 [更新] 上做了一些報告，我想，這些投資確實帶來了一些回報 - 但只是談論 - 您談到今年有 200 個分支機構，2019 年有 131 個。根據我確信你們所做的工作，夠了嗎？或者從現在起的兩年內，你的數字能否從 200 增加到 250？我很想聽聽您的想法，關於透過此次分行擴張您可以最大限度地拓展市場機會到什麼程度。還有更多的事情要做嗎？那麼，為什麼您今天不這樣做，而是以後再這樣做呢？

Yeah. Ebrahim, we're going to continue to do it. So you're going to see a regular cadence, I believe, in our identification of and our developing great markets in the state. And the way to think about it is we've talked about it, let's say, in the next two years, we're done with Dallas and we're done with Austin, okay? Well, at that time, that will be -- the Houston 1.0 expansion will be seven or eight years, I guess, to be eight years old, right?

是的。易卜拉欣，我們將繼續這樣做。因此，我相信，您將會看到我們在該州識別和開發大市場的規律性。而思考的方式是，我們已經討論過了，比方說，在未來的兩年裡，我們將完成達拉斯和奧斯汀的合作，好嗎？嗯，到那時，休士頓 1.0 擴建計畫將需要七到八年，我猜，到八年了，對吧？

And so if you look at Houston, it has grown a tremendous amount for the last eight years. So there's going to be the opportunity for us to take advantage of where the market's gone. And instead of plugging really big holes within the city like we did with 1.0 and 2.0, we're going to have the opportunity to move into markets where you're growing, for example, it's growing really strongly West. We finally got to Katy and now that we're in a Katy, Texas, everyone's saying, well, how about the communities west of that, for example. You see the same thing in Dallas and other markets.

如果你看看休士頓，你會發現它在過去八年裡取得了巨大的發展。因此，我們將有機會利用市場的變化。我們不會像在 1.0 和 2.0 版本中那樣，填補城市內的大漏洞，而是有機會進入正在成長的市場，例如，成長強勁的西部市場。我們終於到達了凱蒂，現在我們在德克薩斯州的凱蒂，每個人都在說，好吧，比如說，凱蒂西邊的社區怎麼樣。你會在達拉斯和其他市場看到同樣的情況。

So I think what we're -- we'll be doing is identifying where are those -- where the -- where we didn't get to take advantage the first time in the expansion in those markets and then also going to where -- where that market is growing.

所以我認為我們要做的就是確定這些市場在哪裡——在哪些地方我們在第一次擴張時沒有充分利用這些市場，然後看看這些市場在哪裡成長。

One of the things that I've asked our team to do over the last year or so is just to be honest, is look where the puck is going. It's -- the state's growing. And I want to have locations that we have warehouse and what we believe will be great markets as they develop and have those in our hip pocket so that we can bring those out and not be -- not take a year or year and a half to scramble and find something in the market that's really starting to take off.

在過去一年左右的時間裡，我要求我們團隊做的一件事就是誠實地觀察冰球的去向。這是——該州正在發展。我希望在擁有倉庫的地區以及我們認為會發展成為偉大市場的地區，將這些產品放在我們的口袋裡，這樣我們就可以將它們推出去，而不用——花一年或一年半的時間在市場上匆匆忙忙地尋找真正開始起飛的產品。

So -- that's why I say I think this is durable and scalable. I think we'll continue to be doing this for a good period of time.

所以——這就是為什麼我說我認為這是持久且可擴展的。我認為我們會繼續這樣做很長一段時間。

One thing to keep in mind, Ebrahim, and I know you we've been with you on this a long time. You talk about it. But one thing to think about is the longer we do it, the higher and higher percentage of our market locations that are new and that are not so legacy that there's -- there's no development left, no growth in it.

有一件事要記住，易卜拉欣，我知道我們在這件事上已經和你在一起很久了。你說話吧。但要考慮的一件事是，我們做的時間越長，我們的市場位置中新建和不再具有歷史遺留特徵的位置所佔的比例就會越來越高，這些位置已經不再具有發展前景和增長潛力。

And so if we continue to do, I don't know, let's say, 10, 15 numbers of locations a year, that number will be a smaller and smaller percentage of our current balance sheet. And so I think the -- we'll continue to do it, but I think that the impact of it is going to be relatively less as we continue to grow. And then the really good thing is as we talk about sowing and reaping, I have to give Dan credit for that one, is that -- it's -- we're finally going to get to see -- and our shareholders are finally get season pay off for this. And I think that it's going to be in place for a long time.

因此，如果我們繼續這樣做，比如說，每年開設 10 到 15 家店，那麼這個數字在我們目前資產負債表中所佔的比例就會越來越小。所以我認為——我們會繼續這樣做，但我認為隨著我們的不斷發展，它的影響會相對較小。然後，真正好的事情是，當我們談論播種和收穫時，我必須對丹表示讚揚，那就是 - 我們終於會看到 - 我們的股東終於得到了季度回報。我認為這個制度將會長期實行。

And the two markets that we're in, Houston and Dallas, in June of this year, we had a 2.5% market share in Houston and just over 1% market share in Dallas. So there's -- just in those two markets, there's plenty of room for us to grow there.

就我們所處的兩個市場而言，今年 6 月，我們在休士頓和達拉斯的市佔率為 2.5%，在達拉斯的市佔率略高於 1%。所以，光是這兩個市場，我們就有足夠的成長空間。

(Operator Instructions) Peter Winter, D.A. Davidson.

（操作員指示）Peter Winter，D.A.戴維森。

Sorry about this. Just Dan, can I just clarify the point on the fee income outlook with the overdraft fees. You're assuming that some change to the way overdraft fees are calculated get reduced? And I'm just wondering if that's baked into the guidance and how much of an impact that is?

很抱歉。丹，我能否澄清一下透支費用的收入前景？您認為透支費用的計算方式會有所改變並減少嗎？我只是想知道這是否已納入指導範圍以及影響有多大？

It is baked in there -- towards the back half of the year and then interchange as well. Just -- again, that may or may not happen. But we have it in there.

它是在那裡烘烤的——在下半年，然後也是交換。只是——再說一次，這有可能發生，也可能不會發生。但我們已經把它放到那裡了。

We hope it doesn't.

我們希望不會發生這種情況。

Yeah. But yeah, it's -- especially on the overdraft, our overdrafts have been basically growing as we've been growing customers. We've been trying to do what we can to -- I mean, that's not something that is going to make our dreams come through this overdraft fees.

是的。但是的，特別是在透支方面，我們的透支基本上隨著客戶數量的增長而增長。我們一直在盡力而為——我的意思是，透支費並不能讓我們的夢想成真。

And we offer overdraft grace and other products to help, but you've seen just the consumer kind of spend the excess money that they received during the post-pandemic era. So you've seen that kind of tick up a little bit and go back towards -- closer towards pre-pandemic kind of per customer rates. But if that's changed, then we may not -- that may not be something that we can expect to get the same amount of fee income from.

我們提供透支寬限期和其他產品來提供幫助，但您看到的只是消費者在後疫情時代花掉了他們收到的超額資金。因此，您會看到這種趨勢上升，並回到更接近疫情前的每位顧客費率的水平。但如果這種情況發生了變化，那麼我們可能無法——可能無法期望從中獲得相同數量的費用收入。

Can you quantify like how much you earned in '24 and what type of level you expect in '25?

你能量化一下你在 24 年賺了多少錢以及你期望在 25 年賺到什麼水平嗎？

Yeah. So -- and just looking at -- just in terms of what we did in in higher fee income, retail, this is from '23 to '24, it was about a $5.5 million component of that growth that we had. And so we have that basically kind of -- we have that limit in '25. And [interchange], we are reducing about $1 million a month starting in July.

是的。所以 — — 僅從我們在更高費用收入、零售方面的表現來看，從 23 年到 24 年，我們的成長部分約為 550 萬美元。所以我們基本上有這種——我們在 '25 年有這個限制。並且[交換]，從7月開始，我們每月減少約100萬美元。

We have reached the end of our question-and-answer session. I would like to turn the conference back over to Phil for closing remarks.

我們的問答環節已經結束。我想將會議交還給菲爾，請他作最後發言。

Everybody, we thank you for your interest and for participating in this call today. And with that, it will be adjourned. Thank you.

大家好，我們感謝你們的關注以及參加今天的電話會議。然後會議就休會了。謝謝。

Thank you. This will conclude today's conference. You may disconnect your lines at this time and thank you for your participation.

謝謝。今天的會議到此結束。現在您可以斷開您的線路了，感謝您的參與。