Cullen/Frost Bankers Inc (CFR) 2025 Q1 法說會逐字稿

Greetings, and welcome to Cullen/Frost Bankers, Inc., first-quarter 2025 earnings conference call. (Operator Instructions) As a reminder, this conference is being recorded.

大家好，歡迎參加 Cullen/Frost Bankers, Inc. 2025 年第一季財報電話會議。（操作員指示）提醒一下，本次會議正在錄音。

It is now my pleasure to introduce A.B. Mendez, Senior Vice President and Director of Investor Relations. Please go ahead.

現在我很高興介紹 A.B.門德斯，高級副總裁兼投資者關係總監。請繼續。

Thanks, Sherri. This afternoon's conference call will be led by Phil Green, Chairman and CEO; and Dan Geddes, Group Vice President and CFO.

謝謝，謝裡。今天下午的電話會議將由董事長兼執行長 Phil Green 主持；以及集團副總裁兼財務長 Dan Geddes。

Before I turn the call over to Phil and Dan, I need to take a moment to address the Safe Harbor provisions. Some of the remarks made today will constitute forward-looking statements as defined in the Private Securities Litigation Reform Act of 1995 as amended. We intend such statements to be covered by the safe harbor provisions for forward-looking statements contained in the Private Securities Litigation Reform Act of 1995 as amended.

在我將電話轉給菲爾和丹之前，我需要花點時間來討論安全港條款。今天發表的部分言論將構成《1995 年私人證券訴訟改革法案》（修訂版）中定義的前瞻性陳述。我們希望此類聲明能夠受到 1995 年私人證券訴訟改革法案（修訂版）中前瞻性聲明的安全港條款的約束。

Please see the last page of text in this morning's earnings release for additional information about the risk factors associated with these forward-looking statements. If needed, a copy of the release is available on our website or by calling the Investor Relations department at (210) 220-5234.

有關這些前瞻性陳述所涉及的風險因素的更多信息，請參閱今天上午收益報告的最後一頁文字。如果需要，您可以在我們的網站上取得新聞稿的副本，或致電投資者關係部 (210) 220-5234。

At this time, I'll turn the call over to Phil.

現在，我將把電話轉給菲爾。

Thank you, AB. Good afternoon, everyone, and thanks for joining us. Today, we'll review the first-quarter 2025 results for Cullen/Frost. Our Chief Financial Officer, Dan Geddes, will provide additional commentary and guidance before we take your questions.

謝謝你，AB。大家下午好，感謝大家的參與。今天，我們將回顧 Cullen/Frost 2025 年第一季的業績。在回答您的問題之前，我們的財務長 Dan Geddes 將會提供額外的評論和指導。

In the first quarter of 2025, Cullen/Frost earned $149.3 million or $2.30 a share compared with earnings of $134 million or $2.06 a share reported in the same quarter last year. Our return on average assets and average common equity in the first quarter were 1.19% and 15.54% respectively, and that compared with 1.09% and 15.22% in the same quarter last year. Average deposits in the first quarter were $41.7 billion, an increase of 2.3% over the $40.7 billion in the first quarter of last year. Average loans grew $20.8 billion in the first quarter, an increase of 8.8% compared with $19.1 billion in the first quarter last year.

2025 年第一季度，Cullen/Frost 的利潤為 1.493 億美元，即每股 2.30 美元，而去年同期的利潤為 1.34 億美元，即每股 2.06 美元。本行第一季平均資產報酬率及平均普通股權益報酬率分別為1.19%及15.54%，去年同期分別為1.09%及15.22%。第一季平均存款為 417 億美元，比去年第一季的 407 億美元成長 2.3%。第一季平均貸款成長 208 億美元，較去年第一季的 191 億美元成長 8.8%。

We continue to see solid results driven by the hard work of our Frost bankers and the extension of our organic growth strategy. In just a couple of weeks, we'll open another new financial center in the Austin region and that will be our 200th location. At the time we started this strategy in late 2018, we had around 130 financial centers, which means we've increased that number by more than 50% since that time. And we continue to identify Texas locations for extending our value proposition to more customers.

在 Frost 銀行家的辛勤工作和有機成長策略的延伸的推動下，我們繼續看到穩健的表現。再過幾週，我們將在奧斯汀地區開設另一個新的金融中心，這將是我們的第 200 個地點。當我們在 2018 年底開始實施這項策略時，我們擁有約 130 個金融中心，這意味著自那時以來，我們的金融中心數量增加了 50％ 以上。我們將繼續在德克薩斯州尋找地點，以便向更多客戶擴展我們的價值主張。

At the end of the first quarter, our overall expansion efforts had generated $2.64 billion in deposits, $1.9 billion in loans, and 64,000 new households. Deposits were within 1% of gold, while loans and households exceeded gold by 40% and 27%, respectively. As we've mentioned, the successes of the earlier expansion locations are now funding the current expansion effort, and we expect the overall effort will be accretive to earnings beginning in 2026. And as I've said many times, this strategy is both durable and scalable.

截至第一季末，我們的整體擴張努力已產生26.4億美元的存款、19億美元的貸款和64,000個新家庭。存款與黃金的比率在 1% 以內，而貸款和家庭分別超過黃金 40% 和 27%。正如我們所提到的，早期擴張地點的成功現在為當前的擴張工作提供了資金，我們預計從 2026 年開始，整體努力將增加收益。正如我多次說過的，這項策略既持久又可擴展。

Strategy continues to drive outstanding growth in our consumer banking business. Average consumer deposits, which make up 47% of our deposit base, grew 3.8% compared with the first quarter last year. Average consumer loan balances grew by 20.5% over a year ago. In our consumer bank, we continue to be driven by delivering a level of customer experience that is unexpected in today's world.

該策略持續推動我們的消費銀行業務的出色成長。平均消費者存款占我們存款基礎的 47%，與去年第一季相比成長了 3.8%。平均消費貸款餘額比去年同期增加了20.5%。在我們的消費銀行中，我們持續致力於提供當今世界意想不到的客戶體驗。

These are not just words. This is part of our culture. And you can see the evidence in the fact that J.D. Power recently named Frost number one in Texas for consumer banking satisfaction for the 16th year in a row. This customer experience excellence underlies our ability to deliver consistently strong organic growth that is balanced and durable.

這些不僅僅是言辭。這是我們文化的一部分。您可以從 J.D. Power 最近將 Frost 評為德克薩斯州消費者銀行滿意度第一名，這已是該機構連續第 16 年將該機構評為第一名。卓越的客戶體驗是我們實現持續強勁、平衡且持久的有機成長的基礎。

Year-over-year consumer checking customer growth continued to be industry leading at 5.7% in an environment that continues to be extremely competitive for low-cost deposits. The deposit growth in the quarter showed good balance across product categories after several quarters of being weighted towards certificate deposits. Average balances in the consumer loan were up $611 million year over year, making this the 11th consecutive quarter where our consumer loan growth hit 20%. This excellent growth was driven by consumer real estate lending which is comprised of both second lien home equity loans as well as our new mortgage products.

在低成本存款競爭持續異常激烈的環境下，支票帳戶客戶年增率持續保持業界領先，達到 5.7%。在經歷了幾個季度的以存單存款為主的成長趨勢後，本季存款成長呈現出各產品類別之間良好的平衡性。消費貸款平均餘額年增 6.11 億美元，這是我們消費貸款成長率連續第 11 季達到 20%。這一出色的成長是由消費者房地產貸款推動的，其中包括第二留置權房屋淨值貸款以及我們的新抵押貸款產品。

Our second lien home equity products grew $61 million in the first quarter, while our mortgage fundings were $39 million and ended the quarter at $297 million. People are choosing Frost based on our reputation for outstanding service, our investments in our organic expansion in Houston, Dallas, and Austin as well as our investments in marketing and technology. All these are helping fund and fuel stellar results in our consumer bank, and I expect to see this continue.

我們的第二留置權房屋淨值產品在第一季成長了 6,100 萬美元，而我們的抵押貸款融資為 3,900 萬美元，在本季末達到 2.97 億美元。人們選擇 Frost 是基於我們卓越服務的聲譽、我們在休士頓、達拉斯和奧斯汀的有機擴張方面的投資以及我們在行銷和技術方面的投資。所有這些都為我們的消費者銀行業務提供了資金和動力，並取得了出色的業績，我希望這種情況能持續下去。

Looking at our commercial business, average loan balances grew by $1.1 billion or 6.6% year over year. CRE balances grew at 8.9%. Energy balances increased 19.8%, and C&I balances increased by 1%. New loan commitments totaled $1.28 billion in the first quarter, up 1.5% from the $1.26 billion in the first quarter of 2024. I think it's interesting and, frankly, encouraging to look deeper into the dynamics of our commercial business. The first quarter represented an all-time record for calls made by our officers during a quarter at over 54,000 with almost 2/3 of those to customers.

縱觀我們的商業業務，平均貸款餘額年增 11 億美元，即 6.6%。CRE餘額增加了8.9%。能源餘額增加了19.8%，工商業餘額增加了1%。第一季新增貸款承諾總額為 12.8 億美元，較 2024 年第一季的 12.6 億美元成長 1.5%。我認為深入了解我們的商業業務動態很有趣，而且坦白說，令人鼓舞。第一季度，我們的工作人員撥打的電話數量創歷史新高，超過 54,000 個，其中近三分之二是打給客戶的。

That helped us identify a record number for any quarter of new opportunities into our gross pipeline during the first quarter, almost $6.2 billion. That helped our 90-day weighted pipeline increased 27% over the fourth quarter. Customer opportunities were up 38% versus prospects 9%. Of that activity, CRE opportunities over $10 million showed the highest growth. What all this says to me is that our organization and our people are successfully executing the skill sets of a high-performing sales organization, and that makes me optimistic as we move forward.

這幫助我們在第一季的總通路中發現了創紀錄的新機會數量，接近 62 億美元。這有助於我們的 90 天加權管道在第四季度增加 27%。客戶機會增加了 38%，而潛在客戶增加了 9%。在這些活動中，價值超過 1000 萬美元的 CRE 機會成長最快。對我來說，這一切都表明我們的組織和員工正在成功地執行高績效銷售組織的技能組合，這讓我對我們未來的發展充滿樂觀。

We recorded 972 new commercial relationships in the first quarter, an 18% increase over the first quarter last year and our largest first-quarter total ever. Half of the new commercial relationships in the first quarter this year continue to come from what we call the too big to fail banks. Our overall credit quality remains good by historical standards, with net charge-offs and nonaccrual loans, both at healthy levels. Nonperforming assets declined to $85 million at the end of the first quarter compared to $93 million at year-end. Order end figure represents 41 basis points of period end loans and 16 basis points of total assets.

我們在第一季建立了 972 個新的商業關係，比去年第一季成長了 18%，是我們有史以來第一季最多的商業關係。今年第一季新增商業關係的一半仍然來自我們所謂的「大到不能倒」的銀行。我們的整體信用品質按照歷史標準來看仍然良好，淨沖銷和非應計貸款均處於健康水準。第一季末不良資產下降至 8,500 萬美元，去年年底為 9,300 萬美元。訂單期末數字代表期末貸款的 41 個基點和總資產的 16 個基點。

Net charge-offs for the first quarter were $9.7 million, compared to $14 million last quarter and $7.3 million a year ago. Annualized net charge-offs for the first quarter represent 19 basis points of average loans. Total problem loans, which we define as risk grade 10, some people call that OAEM or higher, totaled $809 million at the end of the first quarter, down from $943 million at the end of the year. Our overall commercial real estate lending portfolio remains stable with steady operating performance across all asset types and acceptable debt service coverage ratios. Our loan-to-value levels are similar to what we reported in prior quarters.

第一季淨沖銷額為 970 萬美元，而上一季為 1,400 萬美元，去年同期為 730 萬美元。第一季的年化淨沖銷額相當於平均貸款的 19 個基點。我們將問題貸款總額定義為風險等級 10，有些人稱之為 OAEM 或更高，第一季末總額為 8.09 億美元，低於年底的 9.43 億美元。我們的整體商業房地產貸款組合保持穩定，所有資產類型的經營業績穩健，債務償還率可接受。我們的貸款價值比與前幾季報告的水平相似。

Finally, I'd like to thank our Frost employees for helping us win that 16th consecutive J.D. Power retail banking satisfaction study in Texas. And I also remember that they only conducted that survey for 16 years, and Frost has been on top for all 16 of them, thanks to our great staff. Those awards, these quarterly results, 50% increase in Frost locations from our expansion efforts, and the strong deposit and loan growth, combined with the continued strength and stability of our balance sheet and our 32 consecutive years of dividend increases demonstrate that Frost is built solidly and is well positioned to succeed in a variety of business environments.

最後，我要感謝我們的 Frost 員工，他們幫助我們連續第 16 次贏得德州 J.D. Power 零售銀行滿意度調查。我還記得，這項調查他們只進行了 16 年，而由於我們優秀的員工，Frost 在這 16 年裡一直名列前茅。這些獎項、這些季度業績、透過擴張努力實現的 Frost 分支機構增加 50%、強勁的存款和貸款增長，加上我們資產負債表的持續強勁和穩定以及我們連續 32 年的股息增長，表明 Frost 基礎穩固，完全有能力在各種商業環境中取得成功。

When I talk with customers around the state, I often remark that one of the advantages of being at a 157-year-old institution is that we have been through all kinds of things, whether it's high or low interest rates, high or low unemployment, recessions, expansions, pandemics, or changes in economic policy, Frost has grown and prospered through it all. We take that seriously, which is why we also focus on our core values of integrity, caring, and excellence. And we've always strived to provide top-quality customer service the best bankers anywhere, all the while committing to holding safe, sound assets.

當我與全州各地的客戶交談時，我經常說，在一家擁有 157 年歷史的機構工作的優勢之一是，我們經歷過各種各樣的事情，無論是高利率還是低利率、高失業率還是低失業率、經濟衰退、擴張、流行病還是經濟政策的變化，Frost 都經歷了成長和繁榮。我們對此非常重視，這就是為什麼我們也注​​重誠信、關懷和卓越這些核心價值。我們始終致力於為最優秀的銀行家提供最優質的客戶服務，同時致力於持有安全、穩健的資產。

And with that, I'll turn it over to Dan.

說完這些，我就把麥克風交給丹。

Thank you, Phil. Let me start off by giving some additional color on our expansion results. As Phil mentioned, we continue to be pleased with the volumes we've been able to achieve. Looking at year-over-year growth, expansion average loans and deposits increased $511 million and $586 million respectively, representing growth of 38% and 30%. The expansion now represents 9% and 6% of total loans and deposits using average March month-to-date balances. This compares to 7% of loans and 5% of total deposits at March 2024.

謝謝你，菲爾。首先，讓我對我們的擴展結果進行一些補充說明。正如菲爾所提到的，我們對已經取得的成果感到非常滿意。從年成長來看，擴張平均貸款和存款分別增加了 5.11 億美元和 5.86 億美元，成長率分別為 38% 和 30%。根據 3 月月初至今的平均餘額計算，此次擴張目前佔貸款總額和存款總額的 9% 和 6%。相較之下，截至 2024 年 3 月，貸款總額佔 7%，存款總額佔 5%。

Now moving to first-quarter financial performance for the company. Regarding net interest margin, our net interest margin percentage was up 7 basis points to 3.60% from 3.53% reported last quarter. Our net interest margin percentage was positively impacted by increased volumes of higher-yielding taxable securities and loans, combined with lower cost of interest-bearing deposits. These positives were offset somewhat by lower volumes and yields of balances held at the Fed.

現在來看看公司第一季的財務表現。至於淨利差，我們的淨利差百分比從上一季的 3.53% 上升 7 個基點至 3.60%。我們的淨利差百分比受到高收益應稅證券和貸款數量的增加以及計息存款成本的降低的正面影響。這些積極因素在一定程度上被聯準會持有的餘額數量和收益率的下降所抵消。

Looking at our investment portfolio. The total investment portfolio averaged $19.4 billion during the first quarter, up $743 million from the prior quarter. During the first quarter, investment purchases totaled $2.1 billion, with $1.7 billion being Agency MBS securities, yielding 5.82% and $414 million being municipals with taxable equivalent yield of 5.55%. During the quarter, we had $299 million of municipals roll off at an average tax equivalent yield of 3.86%. The net unrealized loss on the available-for-sale portfolio at the end of the quarter was $1.4 billion, a decrease of $156 million from the $1.56 billion reported at the end of the fourth quarter.

查看我們的投資組合。第一季投資組合總規模平均為 194 億美元，較上一季增加 7.43 億美元。第一季度，投資購買總額為 21 億美元，其中 17 億美元為機構 MBS 證券，收益率為 5.82%，4.14 億美元為市政債券，應稅等值收益率為 5.55%。本季度，我們有 2.99 億美元的市政債券流出，平均稅收收益率為 3.86%。本季末可供出售資產組合的淨未實現損失為 14 億美元，較第四季末報告的 15.6 億美元減少 1.56 億美元。

The taxable equivalent yield on the total investment portfolio during the quarter was 3.63%, up 19 basis points from the fourth quarter. The taxable portfolio, which averaged $12.9 billion, up approximately $754 million from the prior quarter had a yield of 3.29%, up 30 basis points from the prior quarter. Our tax-exempt municipal portfolio averaged $6.5 billion during the first quarter, flat with the fourth quarter, and had a taxable equivalent yield of 4.38%, up 5 basis points from the prior quarter. At the end of the first quarter, approximately 69% of the municipal portfolio was pre-refunded or PSF insured. The duration of the investment portfolio at the end of the first quarter was 5.5 years, down from 5.7 years in the fourth quarter.

本季總投資組合的應稅等值收益率為3.63%，較第四季上升19個基點。應稅投資組合平均規模為 129 億美元，較上一季增加約 7.54 億美元，收益率為 3.29%，較上一季上升 30 個基點。我們第一季的免稅市政投資組合平均為 65 億美元，與第四季度持平，應稅等值收益率為 4.38%，比上一季上升 5 個基點。截至第一季末，約有 69% 的市政投資組合已獲得預先償還或 PSF 保險。第一季末投資組合久期為5.5年，低於第四季的5.7年。

Looking at funding sources. On a linked quarter basis, average total deposits of $41.7 billion were down $228 million from the previous quarter. The linked quarter decrease was driven primarily by lower noninterest-bearing accounts. This decrease is in line with normal seasonal trends. The cost of interest-bearing deposits in the first quarter was 1.94%, down 20 basis points from 2.14% in the fourth quarter.

查看資金來源。與上一季相比，平均總存款為 417 億美元，較上一季減少 2.28 億美元。季度環比下降主要是由於無息帳戶減少所致。這種下降符合正常的季節性趨勢。第一季計息存款成本為1.94%，較第四季的2.14%下降20個基點。

Thus far in April, month-to-date average deposit balances have rebounded and are up to (technical difficulty) As a reminder, we tend to see weaker deposit flows in the first half of the year and stronger flows in the back half of the year and the majority of that seasonality is driven by commercial, noninterest-bearing deposits. Customer repos for the fourth quarter averaged $4.1 billion, up $201 million from the fourth quarter. The cost of customer repos for the quarter was 3.13%, down 21 basis points from the fourth quarter.

截至目前，四月當月平均存款餘額已經反彈，並已達到（技術難度）提醒一下，我們往往會看到上半年存款流較弱，下半年存款流較強，而這種季節性變化主要是由商業、無息存款推動的。第四季顧客回購平均金額為 41 億美元，較上一季增加 2.01 億美元。本季顧客回購成本為3.13%，較第四季下降21個基點。

Looking at noninterest income and expense, I'll point out a couple of seasonal items impacting the linked quarter results. Regarding noninterest income, insurance commissions and fees were up $6.8 million. Remember, the first quarter is typically our strongest quarter for group benefit renewals and annual bonus payments received. On the expense side, employee benefits were up $13.5 million and were impacted primarily by increased payroll taxes and 401(k) matching expense. These were impacted by our annual incentive payments that are paid during the first quarter.

查看非利息收入和支出，我將指出影響相關季度業績的幾個季節性項目。至於非利息收入，保險佣金和費用增加了 680 萬美元。請記住，第一季通常是我們收到的團體福利續約和年度獎金支付最強勁的季度。在費用方面，員工福利增加了 1,350 萬美元，主要受到工資稅和 401(k) 匹配費用增加的影響。這些都受到我們第一季支付的年度獎勵金的影響。

Regarding our guidance for full-year 2025, our current outlook includes 425 basis point cuts for the Fed funds rate in 2025, with cuts in June, July, September, and October. We have added the July and October cuts from our prior guidance. Despite the updated expectation of four rate cuts, we are seeing benefits of our Q4 and Q1 securities purchases as well as the decrease in our cost of deposits, and now expect net interest income growth for the full year to fall in the range of 5% to 7% compared to our prior guidance of 4% to 6% growth.

關於我們對 2025 年全年的指導，我們目前的展望包括 2025 年將聯邦基金利率下調 425 個基點，分別在 6 月、7 月、9 月和 10 月下調。我們在先前的指導中增加了 7 月份和 10 月份的削減。儘管最新預期是降息四次，但我們看到第四季度和第一季的證券購買以及存款成本的下降帶來了收益，現在預計全年淨利息收入增長將在 5% 至 7% 之間，而我們之前預測的增長率為 4% 至 6%。

For net interest margin, we expect an improvement of about 12 to 15 basis points over our net interest margin of 3.53% for 2024, up from our prior guidance of a 10-basis-point improvement. Looking at loans and deposits, we expect full-year average loan growth to be in the mid- to high single digits and expect full-year average deposits to be up between 2% and 3%. Based on our current projections, we are projecting growth in noninterest income in the range of 2% to 3%, which is an increase from our prior guidance range of 1% to 2% growth, and we expect noninterest expense growth to be in the high single digits.

對於淨利差，我們預期 2024 年淨利差將比 3.53% 提高約 12 至 15 個基點，高於我們先前預測的 10 個基點的改善。從貸款和存款來看，我們預計全年平均貸款成長率將達到中高個位數，預計全年平均存款成長率將在 2% 至 3% 之間。根據我們目前的預測，我們預計非利息收入成長率將在 2% 至 3% 之間，高於我們先前預測的 1% 至 2% 的成長範圍，我們預計非利息支出成長率將達到高個位數。

Regarding net charge-offs, we expect full-year 2025 to be similar to 2024 and in the range of 20 to 25 basis points of average loans. Regarding taxes, we currently expect the full year 2025 to be between 16% and 17%, up from our prior guidance of between 15% and 16%.

關於淨沖銷，我們預計 2025 年全年將與 2024 年相似，平均貸款金額在 20 至 25 個基點之間。關於稅收，我們目前預計 2025 年全年稅率將在 16% 至 17% 之間，高於我們先前預測的 15% 至 16%。

With that, I'll turn the call back over to Phil for questions.

說完這些，我將把電話轉回給菲爾來回答問題。

Thank you, Dan. We'll now open up the call for questions.

謝謝你，丹。我們現在開始提問。

(Operator Instructions) Jared Shaw, Barclays.

（操作員指示）巴克萊銀行的賈里德·肖 (Jared Shaw)。

Maybe starting on the deposit side, you had good benefits from lower deposit pricing this quarter. How should we think about the deposit beta on interest-bearing deposits as we sort of move through your rate cut assumptions?

也許從存款方面開始，本季較低的存款價格會為您帶來好處。當我們按照您的降息假設行事時，我們應該如何看待有利息存款的存款貝塔係數？

Jared, right now, our cumulative beta is about 47%, spot beta is around 50%-ish, if that helps. And as the rate cuts, if they occur, and depending on how quickly they go down, we should expect to see that hold up until as they get if they just continue to go further than what we have as our guidance.

賈里德，目前，我們的累積貝塔值約為 47%，現貨貝塔值約為 50% 左右，如果有幫助的話。如果降息真的發生，並且取決於降息的速度，我們應該預計，如果降息幅度繼續超出我們的預期，那麼這種情況將會持續下去。

Okay. All right. So that level of beta should be able to be sustainable as we see the extra two cuts?

好的。好的。那麼，當我們看到額外的兩次降息時，這種 beta 水平應該能夠持續下去嗎？

Yes. I mean, we're going to look on a competitive basis, but we expect it to. And we kind of have tried to keep the same beta on the way down as we did on the way up.

是的。我的意思是，我們將以競爭為基礎來看待問題，但我們期待如此。我們試圖在下降過程中保持與上升過程中相同的測試版本。

Okay. Great. And then on the expenses, as we look at the guide for the full year, how should we think about sort of the trajectory through the year? And are there any additional tech initiatives, technology initiatives that are going to be coming on? Or how should we think about sort of the investment in technology with that backdrop?

好的。偉大的。然後關於費用，當我們查看全年指南時，我們應該如何考慮全年的軌跡？還有什麼其他技術措施或技術計劃即將推出嗎？或者在這樣的背景下我們該如何看待對科技的投資？

I think just overall, you're going to see this quarter was somewhat impacted by the first quarter of '24 having that FDIC special assessment. So if you took that out, it would be in the high single digits, and that's kind of where I would kind of land for the next three quarters.

我認為總體而言，你會看到本季在一定程度上受到了 2024 年第一季 FDIC 特別評估的影響。因此，如果你把它拿出來，它將會處於高個位數，這就是我未來三個季度的預期。

Jared, with technology, there's not a big increase for anything specific technology costs have been going up really for everyone becoming a higher percentage of our noninterest expenses, and we track that over time. And I think we sort of peaked in 2023 as far as in our really large, what we call sort of a generational investment there. Numbers are still high, and they'll continue to be high, but they have come down from that level. And what we're hoping is that as we continue to move through some of these foundational things that we're doing for all kinds of things, whether not it's cybersecurity, whether or not it's legacy systems, whether it's growth initiatives that we'll be able to see that begin to move in, and I'm hopeful some in '26

賈里德，就技術而言，任何特定的技術成本都沒有大幅增加，但實際上每個人的技術成本都在上升，占我們非利息支出的比例越來越大，我們會隨著時間的推移對此進行追蹤。我認為，就我們所謂的世代投資而言，我們在 2023 年達到了頂峰。數字仍然很高，而且還會繼續保持高位，但已經從那個水平下降了。我們希望的是，隨著我們繼續推進我們正在做的各種基礎性工作，無論是網路安全、遺留系統還是成長計劃，我們都能看到這些工作開始推進，我希望在 2026 年

But still, technology expenses are the new -- used to be healthcare, right? Healthcare expenses were out of control, not controllable. That's for some time now, it has been -- technology expense, that has been the largest -- the biggest growth area in our expense base and every place really.

但是，技術費用仍然是新的——曾經是醫療保健，對嗎？醫療費用已失控，無法控制。一段時間以來，技術支出一直是我們支出基礎中以及各個地方最大的成長領域。

Just to clarify, that beta is on interest-bearing deposits.

需要澄清的是，該測試版針對的是計息存款。

Yeah. Okay. And if I could just sneak the last one and just what sort of the conversations like with commercial customers over the last month or so with the economic backdrop. Are you seeing any of those customers waiting to defer any investments? Or what's the -- what's sort of the broader sentiment?

是的。好的。如果我可以偷偷問最後一個問題，請問一下過去一個月左右在經濟背景下與商業客戶進行了什麼樣的對話。您是否看到任何客戶正在等待推遲任何投資？或者什麼是──更廣泛的情緒是什麼？

I would say some are waiting. What they're really looking for in most cases is clarity, so they can make decisions. I think there'll be -- they're looking forward to getting some trade deals done, so they know what the tariffs will be and will know the impact on their cost structure and supply chain. I'll say one thing that was interesting to me, looking at the responses from our various regions from our various loan officers who talk to customers and then they provide synopsis of those conversations to us in preparations for these calls and other things is there was no apoplexy in the customer base about the tariff situation. I would say, the thing that I learned in reading, and this is admittedly about 30 days ago, was that a fairly high level of confidence from a lot of people on their ability to pass the cost along.

我想說有些人正在等待。大多數情況下，他們真正尋求的是清晰度，以便做出決定。我認為他們會——他們期待達成一些貿易協議，這樣他們就知道關稅是多少，也知道這對他們的成本結構和供應鏈的影響。我想說一件讓我很感興趣的事，看看我們各個地區的貸款官員與客戶交談的回應，然後他們在準備這些電話和其他事情時向我們提供這些談話的概要，客戶群對關稅情況並沒有感到震驚。我想說，我在閱讀中了解到，這無疑是大約 30 天前的事情，很多人對他們轉嫁成本的能力有相當高的信心。

The thought to get pricing capacity with customers in the market. In other cases, there was and had some great anecdotal examples of where there was a sharing of whatever that cost was and working that out. And in other cases, there are buyers that are saying, no, it's too early, you're not going to pass that on. So they're fighting to have -- to not have those costs pass along to them, so they're not having to deal with it right now, although they know they will. So that's just to say there's a lot of different variations.

想在市場上與客戶一起獲得定價能力。在其他情況下，有一些很好的軼事例子，說明如何分擔成本並解決問題。而在其他情況下，有些買家會說，不，現在還太早，你不會放棄這個機會。因此，他們正在努力不讓這些成本轉嫁到他們身上，這樣他們現在就不必處理這個問題，儘管他們知道他們會遇到這種情況。所以這只是說存在著很多不同的變化。

I don't think there's a lot of pessimism. I think there's some concern because they don't have clarity on what the answer is right now. But I think there's -- for us, seeing a higher degree of confidence that businesses will be able to move through it similar to what they did back with the tariffs (inaudible) But that's what I've heard from customers.

我認為並沒有太多悲觀情緒。我認為他們有些擔心，因為他們目前還不清楚答案是什麼。但我認為——對我們來說，看到企業能夠像之前處理關稅問題一樣順利度過難關的信心有所提高（聽不清楚）但這是我從客戶那裡聽到的。

Casey Haire, Autonomous Research.

Casey Haire，自主研究。

A question on the loan growth outlook. If I heard you right, it sounds like the pipeline is up almost 30% quarter-to-quarter. You guys kept the loan growth guide in place, which implies there's not a lot of growth. Just wondering why we didn't see the loan growth go up given a strong pipeline.

關於貸款成長前景的問題。如果我沒聽錯的話，聽起來管道數量比上一季增加了近 30%。你們保留了貸款成長指南，這意味著不會有太大的成長。我只是想知道為什麼在如此強大的管道下我們沒有看到貸款成長上升。

I think what we're seeing is some headwind from CRE payoffs that's giving us just -- I think we're just looking at what we expect to get paid off on what we received in payoffs in the first quarter related to large multifamily projects that we -- that are just ready to move on to either be sold or refinanced some of them may be behind in terms of -- there was construction delays during the pandemic and then lease-up has been slower than anticipated. So we've had some several that have paid off through these, I would say, private credit has stepped in and provided some bridge financing.

我認為，我們看到的是來自 CRE 收益的一些阻力，這給我們帶來了 - 我認為我們只是在看我們預計在第一季度收到的與大型多戶型項目相關的收益中會得到多少回報 - 我們只是準備繼續出售或再融資，其中一些可能落後於 - 在大流行期間出現了建設延誤，然後租賃速度比預期的要慢。因此，我們已經透過這些方式獲得了一些回報，我想說，私人信貸已經介入並提供了一些過橋融資。

So that's probably the biggest piece that keeps loan growth where we have it in terms of guidance because we are seeing because when I look at the weighted pipeline and it all starts, as Phil mentioned, with the calling efforts that are officers are making. And to me, that's us doing our jobs and getting out in front, 2/3 of those calls are to customers. And so that means that during this time of a little bit of uncertainty.

因此，這可能是保持貸款成長在指導範圍內的最大因素，因為我們看到，因為當我查看加權管道時，正如菲爾所提到的那樣，這一切都始於官員們所做的努力。對我來說，這就是我們在做好自己的工作並走在前面，其中三分之二的電話都是打給客戶的。這意味著在這段時間裡存在一些不確定性。

We're out and we're hearing from our customers, understanding their needs, how do we help them navigate through it. And so that's -- I think that's helped generate the top of the funnel, those new opportunities. And looking through the numbers, you see a lot of them are those large CRE opportunities, but we've lost our more than our -- more than what we typically experience. I think our loss to pricing and structure is up 65%. And what that tells me is we're maintaining our discipline in terms of structure and pricing as well.

我們出去聽取客戶的意見，了解他們的需求，並思考如何幫助他們解決問題。所以，我認為這有助於創造漏斗頂部的那些新機會。透過這些數字，你會發現其中許多都是大型 CRE 機會，但我們損失的卻比平常要多。我認為我們在定價和結構方面的損失上升了 65%。這告訴我我們在結構和定價方面也保持著紀律。

And -- but with a large CRE that those are developers, and we'll see -- we'll continue to see opportunities in feel like we'll get our fair share of those throughout the year.

而且 — — 但是，由於 CRE 規模龐大，而且都是開發商，我們會看到 — — 我們將繼續看到機會，感覺我們將在全年獲得公平的份額。

Okay. Great. Can you quantify what the CRE payoffs were this quarter and how they've been trending relative to the past?

好的。偉大的。您能否量化本季的 CRE 收益以及與過去相比的趨勢如何？

Let me -- I don't have that number off the top of my head. Let me try to get that number, and I'll get back to you.

讓我——我還沒想好這個數字。讓我嘗試取得該號碼，然後我會回覆您。

Okay. And just last one for me, switching to capital management. Just wondering -- you guys were active last year as share price is lower than where it is today. Just wondering some updated thoughts on share buyback appetite.

好的。對我來說，最後一個是轉向資本管理。只是想知道——去年你們很活躍，因為股價比現在低。只是想知道關於股票回購意願的一些最新想法。

We continue to be opportunistic. We are mainly focused on all the dividend, as we said many times. We did increase the dividend in this quarter, which is -- which was just three quarters from the previous increase. So we were a little more aggressive with the dividend. I think that will be one of the areas that we continue to focus on.

我們將繼續抓住機會。正如我們多次說過的，我們主要關注所有股息。我們確實在本季度增加了股息，這比上一季的增幅僅高出三個季度。因此，我們在派發股息方面更加積極一些。我認為這將是我們繼續關注的領域之一。

Catherine Mealor, KBW.

凱瑟琳·米勒（Catherine Mealor），KBW。

Maybe just want to follow up back into the margin on just the bond book. Can you give us a little bit of color as to how you're thinking about the size of the bond book and then further reinvestment in your cash flows, especially as we have more cuts throughout the back half of the year?

也許只是想跟進債券帳簿的利潤。您能否向我們稍微介紹一下，您是如何考慮債券帳簿的規模，以及對現金流的進一步再投資，尤其是考慮到我們在今年下半年還會進一步削減開支？

I'd be happy to you, Catherine. So we're looking at either maturities or expected paydowns of just under $2 billion for the rest of the year. And that is going to roll off, and I'm just pulling up the exact numbers here, at around 3.40% yield. And we've already purchased -- we've increased our total for the year from about $2 billion in purchases to $4 billion. And I'm going to now our -- what we've purchased so far.

我很高興有你，凱瑟琳。因此，我們預計今年剩餘時間內的到期債務或預期償還債務將略低於 20 億美元。而且這個數字還會繼續成長，我只是在這裡列出確切的數字，收益率約為 3.40%。我們已經購買了——我們今年的採購總額已從約 20 億美元增加到 40 億美元。現在我要介紹一下我們到目前為止購買的東西。

But we plan on -- I would just say for the rest of the year, we're going to look to reinvest -- let me get the exact numbers so I don't -- we have about $850 million yet to be purchased this year. So we'll reinvest some of that, but also build some of our liquidity and fund loan growth.

但我們計劃——我只想說，在今年剩餘的時間裡，我們將尋求再投資——讓我知道確切的數字，這樣我就不會——我們今年還有大約 8.5 億美元尚未購買。因此，我們將對其中的一部分進行再投資，同時也建立一些流動性和資金貸款成長。

Got it. Okay. So most of the purchases you're saying have mostly already happened. And so that should kind of trail off in the back half of the year.

知道了。好的。所以您所說的大部分購買基本上已經發生了。因此，這一趨勢在下半年應該會逐漸減弱。

And then this quarter since so much of it was -- got it, got it. And so because so much of that happened this quarter, what would you say the full impact of that was on bond yield? Like the whole quarter was a 3.63% bond yield. But I'm assuming that has likely moving higher when you get the full quarter's impact for it.

然後這個季度，因為其中很多都是 - 得到了，得到了。那麼，由於本季發生了很多這樣的情況，您認為這對債券殖利率的整體影響是什麼？整個季度的債券收益率為 3.63%。但我估計，當你了解整個季度的影響時，這個數字可能會更高。

Yeah. Let me -- yeah, we had about 1.7 at about a 5.82% yield, and then our munis were about a 5.55% yield tax equivalent. And so it is going to drive some of that net interest margin growth. And as you kind of pull that forward through the second quarter, third quarter, and then in addition, we have some treasuries out of that $2 billion that's maturing a little over half is going to be in treasuries, of which $675 million is in May, if that helps.

是的。讓我——是的，我們的收益率約為 1.7，約為 5.82%，然後我們的市政債券收益率稅相當於 5.55%。因此它將推動部分淨利差的成長。當你將其提前到第二季、第三季時，此外，我們還有一些即將到期的 20 億美元國債，其中一半以上將以國債形式到期，其中 6.75 億美元將在 5 月份到期，如果這有幫助的話。

Yeah, no, it does. So it feels like the increase in your NII outlook is really more what's happening in the bond portfolio more than really anything else. Is that a fair?

是的，不，確實如此。因此，感覺 NII 前景的成長實際上更多的是債券投資組合中發生的情況，而不是其他任何事情。這樣公平嗎？

Between that and the lower deposit costs. Those are the two bigger drivers. And then just some loan growth in there.

介於此和較低的存款成本之間。這是兩個更大的驅動因素。然後就出現了一些貸款成長。

Great. Okay. And maybe just one follow-up on the new loan growth pricing. What are you seeing there? I know it's gotten more competitive.

偉大的。好的。也許只是對新貸款成長定價的一次跟進。你在那裡看到了什麼？我知道競爭變得更激烈了。

Just curious where new loan production is coming on today.

只是好奇今天新的貸款產生在哪裡。

So the loan production, we're certainly seeing it in consumer, as we mentioned. We got 20% loan growth. They are kind of -- for the 11th consecutive quarter. We're seeing some better -- some slightly better usage in C&I this last month. It's not -- I wouldn't call it anything related to tariffs. It's just a little bit of a bump.

因此，正如我們所提到的，我們肯定會在消費者中看到貸款的產生。我們的貸款成長了20%。這是連續第 11 季了。我們看到上個月 C&I 的使用情況有所改善——略有好轉。這不是——我不會稱其為與關稅有關的任何事物。只是有點小磕碰而已。

But we are seeing good volumes on C&I. And then you also saw some energy growth. And we'll be opportunistic. We're going to watch that percentage to loans in our energy book. But I would say it's primarily going to be driven by consumer and C&I.

但我們看到 C&I 的交易量很好。然後你也會看到一些能量的成長。我們將抓住機會。我們將關注能源帳簿中的貸款百分比。但我想說，這主要將受到消費者和商業與工業 (C&I) 的推動。

Manan Gosalia, Morgan Stanley.

馬南‧戈薩利亞，摩根士丹利。

Phil, you noted that many commercial clients are confident in their ability to pass on some of the higher costs to their customers. And I know that part of your loan growth success has also come on the consumer side in addition in addition to commercial. So how sensitive is the consumer client base in your footprint to inflation and the broader macroeconomic trends?

菲爾，您指出，許多商業客戶有信心將部分較高的成本轉嫁給他們的客戶。我知道，你們的貸款成長成功除了商業貸款外，還部分來自於消費者貸款。那麼，您的足跡內的消費者客戶群對通貨膨脹和更廣泛的宏觀經濟趨勢有多敏感？

I don't think any more than you'd see other places. I mean I think that we continue to see the consumer spending money. I think that the -- we continue to borrow money on the home equity side, our mortgage numbers have been good. I would say there's, on the margin, probably a little bit of slowing because there's some uncertainty, but it's interesting to me that some of the confidence numbers that I see published don't really seem to match up exactly with the spending numbers or what you're seeing in other areas. So I don't think we've seen a big slowdown in the consumer at this point.

我認為你不會比在其他地方看到更多。我的意思是，我認為我們會繼續看到消費者花錢。我認為——我們繼續從房屋淨值方面借錢，我們的抵押貸款數字一直很好。我想說，由於存在一些不確定性，邊際上可能會有一點放緩，但有趣的是，我看到的一些已發布的信心數字似乎與支出數字或你在其他領域看到的數字並不完全匹配。因此我認為我們目前還沒有看到消費大幅放緩。

I think the big reason is because people have jobs and jobs are growing. You're looking taxes rebound, the unemployment rates less, job growth was higher. So as long as they have jobs, I think they're going to continue to be reasonably stable.

我認為主要原因是人們有了工作，而且工作機會增加。你會看到稅收反彈，失業率下降，就業成長更高。所以只要他們有工作，我認為他們就會繼續保持相當穩定。

Got it. And then maybe on the NII outlook 5% to 7%. I think you noted four cuts are baked into that guide. So if you -- if we get fewer rate cuts this year, how are you thinking about that NII outlook from here? And also like what portion of the curve are you most sensitive to?

知道了。那麼 NII 前景可能為 5% 至 7%。我想您已經注意到該指南中包含了四個削減內容。那麼，如果您——如果今年我們的降息次數減少，您如何看待 NII 的前景？還有您對曲線的哪個部分最敏感？

So if we get the belly of the curve, maybe staying where it is, but the short end of the growth moving down, does that change where you come in that in your NII range.

因此，如果我們得到曲線的腹部，也許保持在原處，但增長的短端向下移動，這會改變您在 NII 範圍內的位置嗎？

So in terms of the cuts, it's around $1.7 million, $1.8 million a month impact if -- and so that would be -- if it didn't happen, that would be to the positive on each cut. That might increase closer to $2 million if we get closer to $4 million by the end of the year. But if you think about it in that range. And then in terms and just thinking through the yield curve, on the short end, if we get fewer cuts there, the rates kind of stay elevated on the short end, I mean, that's going to help a big portion of our portfolio. On the long end, that's -- I would say it's going to be more impactful on the short end just in terms of our asset sensitivity is how I would answer that.

因此，就削減而言，如果沒有發生這種情況，每月的影響約為 170 萬美元、180 萬美元，那麼每次削減都會產生積極影響。如果到今年年底我們的收入接近 400 萬美元，那麼這個數字可能會增加到接近 200 萬美元。但如果你在這個範圍內考慮的話。然後從殖利率曲線來看，在短期內，如果我們減少降息幅度，短期利率就會保持在高位，這意味著，這將對我們投資組合的很大一部分有所幫助。從長期來看，我想說，就我們的資產敏感性而言，它將對短期產生更大的影響，這就是我的答案。

Peter Winter, D.A. Davidson.

彼得溫特（Peter Winter），地方檢察官戴維森。

Phil, just given this increased uncertainty, are there any loan portfolios maybe you're watching more closely and/or maybe any portfolios that are causing you to tighten underwriting standards a little bit more?

菲爾，鑑於這種不確定性的增加，是否有任何貸款組合讓您更加密切地關注，或者是否有任何組合導致您進一步收緊承保標準？

Peter, I don't think we're tightening anything as a result of uncertainty really. We tend to be middle of the fairway. We're a little bit more of a conservative underwriter. If you looked at, say, energy, for example, we changed the price deck recently. We've now got a five handle on that price deck. I think it starts with 58 for several years. I think we lowered our price deck on gas. I think it was 3.25 and stayed at 3 now.

彼得，我並不認為我們會因為不確定性而收緊任何措施。我們往往位於球道的中間。我們是一家比較保守的承銷商。以能源為例，我們最近改變了價格表。現在，我們在那個價格層上有五個手把。我認為它從 58 年開始持續了幾年。我認為我們降低了天然氣價格。我認為當時是 3.25，現在保持在 3。

So you could argue that's tightening things up, but that normally how that goes. But I really feel though that at where we stand is good. Our credit -- we had some really large improvements last quarter. A couple of years ago, we talked about a trailer manufacturer that had an inventory problem with an ERM system and had some serious problems, but they paid that off in its entirety. That was a $70 million problem credit.

因此，您可能會說這會使事情變得更加嚴格，但通常情況就是這樣的。但我確實覺得我們現在的處境很好。我們的信用－上個季度我們有了很大的改善。幾年前，我們談到了一家拖車製造商，他們的 ERM 系統有庫存問題，並且出現了一些嚴重問題，但他們已經全部付清了款項。這是一筆價值 7000 萬美元的問題信貸。

We saw about this time, we sold an office building that we had foreclosed. We talked about one in the Houston area that we've taken on. It was that one that we did a deal right before COVID -- literally the month before COVID hit. We had it on the books for 12. We sold it for 14 change.

我們看到大約在這個時候，我們賣掉了一棟被取消抵押品贖回權的辦公大樓。我們討論了我們在休士頓地區承接的一個項目。那是我們在新冠疫情爆發前一個月達成的協議。我們已經把它記在 12 本了。我們以 14 元的價格賣掉了它。

And then if you look at the energy portfolio, we were just talking about that recently. I think we're at our lowest level in history with regard to leverage for cash flow. I think our debt to EBITDAX is under 1 now. That number was -- what was it, 3%. The regulators didn't want to see you over that. I remember back from what it was back in 2016, and those periods are a lot higher. So that's historically low.

如果你看一下能源投資組合，我們最近正在談論這個問題。我認為我們的現金流槓桿率處於歷史最低點。我認為我們現在的 EBITDAX 債務低於 1。那個數字是──3%嗎？監管機構不想看到你出現這種情況。我記得 2016 年的情況，那時的時期要高得多。所以這是歷史最低水準。

Our advance rates against collateral really are historically low. And if you look at, say, hedging, we require 50% of production be hedged anywhere between one and two years. And then I looked at problems because you are seeing problems and get solved, seeing problems come in. The problems that are coming in are just the same things that we've been seeing.

我們的抵押品預付利率確實處於歷史低點。如果你看一下對沖，我們要求 50% 的產量在一到兩年之間進行對沖。然後我觀察問題，因為你看到了問題並得到了解決，看到了問題的出現​​。出現的問題和我們已經看到的問題是一樣的。

They might be a construction firm, might be an equipment dealer, it might be an office building. But they're just -- they're one-off deals that is -- to me, it's just banking. It's really not any way to me anything in particular that we're seeing. So at this point, no.

他們可能是建築公司，可能是設備經銷商，也可能是辦公大樓。但它們只是——它們是一次性交易——對我來說，這只是銀行業務。在我看來，我們所看到的確實沒有什麼特別之處。所以目前來說，沒有。

Got it. That's helpful. And then just with the insurance commissions, which Dan, you talked about, I know there's a seasonal increase in the first quarter. But year-over-year was incredibly strong, also up 15%. I'm just wondering -- what's driving the growth year-over-year?

知道了。這很有幫助。然後就丹您提到的保險佣金而言，我知道第一季出現了季節性增長。但與去年同期相比，成長非常強勁，也成長了 15%。我只是想知道——是什麼推動了年成長？

And how you may be thinking about the growth rate going forward?

您如何看待未來的成長率？

We were really encouraged by that growth as well. One quarter doesn't make a trend, but it's sure could be the start of one. And we had a change where the insurance is now aligned with our commercial banking group. And we've seen an increase in the amount of commercial bankers who have gotten their insurance license. And so there's an increase in referral activity into our insurance agency.

這種成長也確實讓我們感到鼓舞。一個季度並不能形成一種趨勢，但它肯定可以成為一個趨勢的開始。現在，我們的保險業務已經與我們的商業銀行集團保持一致。我們看到獲得保險執照的商業銀行家數量增加。因此，我們保險代理機構的推薦活動增加。

And I just think there's better alignment. And it's -- and I asked the question, how much of this 15% increase is just due to increased policy rates because if you've gotten your homeowners insurance or car insurance or if you have a teenager driver, you get some prize with that. But it's -- we looked into it and 80% of that growth is net new business for us picking up market share. So it's an encouraging start. We'll hope it continues.

我只是認為這樣協調比較好。而且——我問了一個問題，這 15% 的增長有多少僅僅是由於保單費率的提高，因為如果你購買了房屋保險或汽車保險，或者你有一個青少年司機，你就會獲得一些獎勵。但經過研究，我們發現 80% 的成長都是淨新業務，幫助我們搶佔市場份額。這是一個令人鼓舞的開始。我們希望這種情況能夠持續下去。

And I did want to -- Casey, I think you had that question on payoffs in the first quarter of 2025 there was over $430 million in payoffs and that compares to the first quarter last year when we just had a little over $150 million.

我確實想——凱西，我想你對 2025 年第一季的還款額有疑問，當時的還款額超過 4.3 億美元，而去年第一季的還款額剛剛超過 1.5 億美元。

Michael Rose, Raymond James.

麥可羅斯、雷蒙詹姆斯。

Just wanted to get a better sense for what drove the reduction in problem loans this quarter. It looks like they were down about 5.5%. But you did build the reserve, I think, 2 basis points. So just trying to kind of reconcile that.

只是想更了解導致本季問題貸款減少的原因。看起來它們下降了約 5.5%。但我認為你確實建立了儲備，2個基點。所以只是試著調和這一點。

Yeah. I think the -- if you look at problem loan payoffs and resolutions for the quarter and you look at, say, the deals that were 10 million and higher, okay? Well, two of them I talked about, one was that manufacturer of trailers and one of them was an office building we foreclosed. But then another was almost $100 million apartment project that was refinancing and paid off through a private credit facility on a bridge arrangement. So it's just people doing their business.

是的。我認為——如果你看一下本季的問題貸款償還和解決方案，並且你看一下，比如說，1000 萬美元及以上的交易，好嗎？嗯，我談到了其中兩個，一個是拖車製造商，另一個是我們取消抵押品贖回權的辦公大樓。但另一個近 1 億美元的公寓項目正在透過過橋安排的私人信貸工具進行再融資和還款。所以這只是人們在做他們自己的事。

That would be what I would say would be the most interesting of that. We're always working problem credits to get them better and rehabilitated. So that's never going to change. And like I say, you did see new things coming on. But as I mentioned, they were really just what we've seen before. No one trend in particular.

我認為那將是其中最有趣的。我們始終致力於解決問題，使它們得到改善和恢復。所以這永遠不會改變。正如我所說的，你確實看到了新事物的出現。但正如我所提到的，它們實際上只是我們以前見過的。沒有特定的趨勢。

Michael, that's really what we're seeing.

邁克爾，這確實是我們所看到的。

And we did build our allowance, and that's driven by -- we made some tweaks to really account for tariffs, risk of recession. And so that -- we just felt that was prudent to do.

我們確實建立了配額，這是由——我們做了一些調整，以真正考慮到關稅和經濟衰退的風險。所以——我們只是覺得這樣做是謹慎的。

Great. Okay. Great. And then maybe just on the paydown assumptions. If we don't get 4 cuts, let's say we get 1 or 2. I'd assume that would be a positive to the loan growth outlook, but what's the sensitivity there in terms of your assumptions around paydowns?

偉大的。好的。偉大的。然後也許只是基於還款假設。如果我們沒有得到 4 次切割，那麼假設我們得到 1 次或 2 次。我認為這對貸款成長前景有利，但就您對還款的假設而言，其敏感度如何？

Well, Mike, I think part of it is if we do get 4 cuts versus 2, I think 2 cuts likely means the economy is doing better. So I think you can make the assumption that we could see stronger loan growth if we get 2 cuts versus 4, just thinking through what the implications of 2 versus 4 means. So I think that's -- I think that's -- you might see if you -- if we do get 4 cuts, the flip side of that might be some of the CRE opportunities. All of a sudden, we may end up -- Those all of a sudden look a lot better than ones on our books. But also, we could see just if that's going to be kind of the expectation of rates going forward, you could see just some more activity in new CRE, but you probably wouldn't see fundings until '26 or '27 on this.

嗯，麥克，我認為部分原因是如果我們確實降息 4 次而不是 2 次，我認為降息 2 次可能意味著經濟狀況會更好。因此，我認為您可以假設，如果我們降息 2 次而不是 4 次，我們就會看到更強勁的貸款增長，只需思考 2 次而不是 4 次的含義即可。所以我認為——我認為——你可能會看到——如果我們確實獲得 4 次削減，那麼其另一面可能是一些 CRE 機會。突然之間，我們可能會發現——它們突然看起來比我們書上的要好得多。但同時，我們可以看到，如果這將成為未來利率的預期，那麼您可能會看到新的 CRE 中出現更多活動，但您可能要到 26 年或 27 年才能看到這方面的資金。

Got it. Okay. Helpful. Maybe just one last one for me, just on the mortgage business. It looks like balances are up about 15% Q on Q, but some of the more recent industry mortgage numbers haven't been great.

知道了。好的。很有幫助。對我來說也許這只是最後一個問題，僅關於抵押貸款業務。看起來餘額環比增長了約 15%，但最近的一些行業抵押貸款數據並不理想。

I know it's a new business for you guys. Does the backdrop change any of the assumptions kind of in the intermediate term as it relates to the business? Or is it just you're growing from a small base and don't -- won't be subject to same headwinds that the larger, more established players will be?

我知道這對你們來說是一項新業務。背景是否會在中期改變與業務相關的任何假設？還是只是因為你們從小規模開始發展，所以不會像規模更大、更成熟的企業那樣面臨同樣的阻力？

Yes. I think that some of it is a small base. But it really relates, in our case, the referrals that we never get through our system, either and a lot of it relates to internal referrals. And we've really been focused on that. and making sure that we're getting really good response from our bankers because our product is really -- I'd argue it's the best in the market.

是的。我認為其中一些是小規模的。但在我們的案例中，它確實與我們從未透過我們的系統獲得的推薦有關，其中許多與內部推薦有關。我們確實一直專注於此。並確保我們從銀行家那裡得到非常好的回饋，因為我們的產品確實是——我認為它是市場上最好的。

If you look at pricing and experience, et cetera. So I think that we can just get people in, we can sell them. So I think that's partly what's happening. I think that there I am aware that there have been some slowdown very recently. We heard were one of the builders, I think, had some layoffs in some of their mortgage operation.

如果您考慮價格和經驗等等。所以我認為我們可以招募人才，然後向他們推銷。所以我認為這部分就是正在發生的事情。我認為我意識到最近出現了一些放緩。我們聽說其中一家建築商的部分抵押貸款業務部門裁員了。

In fact, they were wondering if we were looking to hire people. And I thought that was interesting. But in our case, we're really just trying to put people in homes. It doesn't have a lot of refinance activity. And so it's been pretty stable as long as we get referrals from our bankers.

事實上，他們想知道我們是否正在招募員工。我認為這很有趣。但就我們而言，我們實際上只是想讓人們有家可歸。它沒有太多的再融資活動。只要我們得到銀行家的推薦，情況就會一直很穩定。

And of course, we're developing our network of realtors we're new in that business. I think we're going to be fine. I really believe that we can meet our goal, which is by the end of the year being at half of the day.

當然，我們正在發展我們的房地產經紀人網絡，我們是這個行業的新手。我想我們會沒事的。我真的相信我們能夠實現我們的目標，即在年底前達到一半的天數。

A reminder on those, 30% of those mortgage loans so far have been to brand new customers of the bank. So it's also been a nice lead-in product as over 0.5 million people are moving to Texas or last year. So it gives us this opportunity to deliver a great experience to somebody that may be new to one of our cities here in Texas.

需要提醒的是，迄今為止，30% 的抵押貸款都發放給了該銀行的新客戶。因此這也是一個很好的引導產品，因為去年有超過 50 萬人移居到德克薩斯州。因此，這為我們提供了這個機會，為那些可能剛到我們德克薩斯州某個城市的人提供絕佳的體驗。

Jon Arfstrom, RBC Capital Markets.

加拿大皇家銀行資本市場 (RBC Capital Markets) 的 Jon Arfstrom。

A few clean-up questions. What's the reason you guys are adding the 2 more cuts to your guidance? Is that -- is it yield curve driven? Or do you think the economy needs 4 cuts? It doesn't feel like it, but is it just the forward curve?

一些清理問題。你們在指導中增加這兩次削減的原因是什麼？這是殖利率曲線驅動的嗎？還是您認為經濟需要四次降息？感覺不像，但這只是前向曲線嗎？

It's -- we're really trying to stay a little bit more conservative than the market or the curve. So I don't think we want to get out ahead of ourselves one way or the other. And that's kind of where we see it right now. I think your guess is probably as good as mine as to where we'll be in 60 days or 90 days.

我們確實試圖保持比市場或曲線更保守一點。所以我認為我們不想以任何方式超越自己。這就是我們現在看到的情況。我認為，對於我們 60 天或 90 天後會處於什麼情況，你的猜測可能與我的一樣準確。

Yes. Okay. Phil, maybe for you. You guys didn't change your loan growth guide, and I understand that. But do you feel better about the loan growth outlook now than maybe you did a month or 6 weeks ago when a lot of the tariff noise was higher.

是的。好的。菲爾，也許對你來說是這樣。你們沒有改變貸款成長指南，我理解這一點。但是，與一個月或六週前（當時關稅噪音較大）相比，您現在對貸款成長前景的感覺是否更好？

I don't feel a lot different, John. I think there's 2 things that are working. One is as long as there's uncertainty, businesses tend to stay away from things, okay? They don't tend to lean into uncertainty very hard. And I still think we have some of that.

我感覺沒什麼不同，約翰。我認為有兩件事正在起作用。一是只要存在不確定性，企業就會傾向遠離某些事物，對嗎？他們並不太傾向於陷入不確定性之中。我仍然認為我們擁有一些這樣的能力。

We need to work through that. So that's a little bit on the negative side. But on the positive side, going back to what I pointed out in my comments, our people are just doing a great job of attacking the market. And our expansion efforts are adding more and more bankers in these communities that are working hard as well. So we've got a lot of stuff.

我們需要努力解決這個問題。所以這有點消極。但從積極的一面來看，回到我在評論中指出的內容，我們的員工在進攻市場方面做得很好。我們的擴張努力正在為這些社區招募越來越多同樣努力工作的銀行家。所以我們有很多東西。

It's still a great market in Texas, right? And there's still a ton of market share that we don't have. As long as we do our job going through the work going through the steps of developing business. And as long as our value proposition is as good as what it is, I think I'm pretty optimistic about it.

德克薩斯州的市場仍然很大，對吧？我們還有大量的市場份額尚未被我們佔領。只要我們做好自己的工作，完成發展業務的步驟。只要我們的價值主張夠好，我想我對此還是相當樂觀的。

Okay. And then maybe one more for you, Dan. You talked a little bit about insurance and mortgage, but anything else holding back your expectations on noninterest income growth? I know you bumped it up, but it feels like you're doing a little bit better than the guide.

好的。然後也許還有一個給你，丹。您談到了一些保險和抵押貸款，但還有什麼阻礙您對非利息收入成長的預期嗎？我知道你把它提高了，但感覺你做得比指南要好一點。

I think, one is just volume of our -- driven through interchange or some service charges that I would expect maybe to the upside as we just continue to build new relationships across the state, whether that's commercial or consumer, I think you heard some industry-leading consumer growth most new relationships in the first quarter. So those would portend for some optimistic noninterest income growth. There's -- I think it's just doing what we do every day and going into new communities with our organic growth strategy, or taking care of our customers, listening to their needs. And so I just think it's just the blocking and tackling of what we do. And I will say we've added in the expansion over 90 relationship managers are calling officers into these 70 -- almost 70 locations that we've added.

我認為，一個是我們的交易量——透過交換費或一些服務費來推動，我預計這可能會帶來好處，因為我們將繼續在全州範圍內建立新的關係，無論是商業關係還是消費者關係，我想你聽到了一些行業領先的消費者增長，第一季大多數新關係都是如此。因此，這些預示著非利息收入將出現樂觀的成長。我認為這只是我們每天所做的事情，透過我們的有機成長策略進入新的社區，或照顧我們的客戶，傾聽他們的需求。所以我認為這只是我們所做的事情的阻止和解決。我要說的是，我們在擴張過程中增加了超過 90 名關係經理，他們正在向我們新增的 70 個地點（幾乎 70 個地點）派遣官員。

That's -- going to make a difference.

這將會起到作用。

There are no further questions at this time. I would like to turn the conference back over to Phil Green for closing remarks.

目前沒有其他問題。我想將會議交還給菲爾·格林 (Phil Green) 做結束語。

Thank you, everyone. We appreciate your continued interest, and we will be adjourned.

謝謝大家。感謝您的持續關注，會議即將結束。

Thank you. This will conclude today's conference. You may disconnect at this time, and thank you for your participation.

謝謝。今天的會議到此結束。此時您可以斷開連接，感謝您的參與。