塞拉尼斯 (CE) 2026 Q1 法說會逐字稿

Greetings, and welcome to the Celanese Q1 2026 earnings call and webcast. (Operator Instructions) Please note that this conference is being recorded.

各位好，歡迎參加 Celanese 2026 年第一季財報電話會議與網路直播。(接線員指示) 請注意，本次會議將被錄音。

I will now turn the conference over to Bill Cunningham. Thank you, Bill. You may begin.

我現在把會議交給 Bill Cunningham。謝謝你，Bill。你可以開始了。

Thank Daryl. Welcome to the Celanese Corporation first-quarter 2026 earnings conference call. My name is Bill Cunningham, Vice President of Investor Relations.

謝謝你，Daryl。歡迎參加 Celanese Corporation 2026 年第一季財報電話會議。我是 Bill Cunningham，投資人關係副總裁。

With me today on the call are Scott Richardson, President and Chief Executive Officer; and Chuck Kyrish, Chief Financial Officer. Celanese distributed its first quarter earnings release via Business Wire and posted prepared comments as well as a presentation on our Investor Relations website yesterday afternoon. As a reminder, we'll discuss non-GAAP financial measures today. You can find definitions of these measures as well as reconciliations to the comparable GAAP measures on our website.

今天與我一同出席電話會議的有總裁暨執行長 Scott Richardson，以及財務長 Chuck Kyrish。Celanese 已透過 Business Wire 發布第一季財報新聞稿，並於昨天下午在我們的投資人關係網站上張貼事先準備的評論以及簡報。提醒各位，我們今天將討論非 GAAP 財務衡量指標。您可在我們網站上找到這些指標的定義，以及與可比 GAAP 指標的調節表。

Today's presentation will also include forward-looking statements. Please review the cautionary language regarding forward-looking statements, which can be found at the end of both the press release and the prepared comments. Form 8-K reports containing all of these materials have also been submitted to the SEC.

今天的簡報也將包含前瞻性陳述。請查閱有關前瞻性陳述的警示性語言，該內容可在新聞稿與事先準備的評論末尾找到。包含所有這些資料的 Form 8-K 報告也已提交給美國證券交易委員會（SEC）。

With that, Daryl, let's go ahead and open it up for questions.

那麼，Daryl，我們就開始開放提問。

(Operator Instructions)

(接線員指示)

Ghansham Panjabi, Baird.

Ghansham Panjabi，Baird。

Thank you, operator. Good morning, everybody. I guess, first off, based on your first quarter operating results, it seems like your major end markets are basically weak apart from some order pattern distortions specific to prebuys, et cetera. As it relates to your guidance for the back half of the year, are you basically assuming that the operating environment reverts back to what you were seeing prewar? And I guess I'm referring specifically to the $3 per share in EPS you're guiding towards for the back half of the year.

謝謝，接線員。各位早安。我想先問，從你們第一季的營運結果來看，除了與預先採購（prebuys）等相關、特定的訂單型態扭曲之外，你們主要終端市場似乎基本上都偏弱。就你們對今年下半年的指引而言，你們是否基本上假設營運環境會回到戰前你們所看到的狀況？我特別指的是你們對下半年每股盈餘（EPS）約 3 美元的指引。

Yeah. Thanks for the question, Ghansham. I think we've been pretty consistent with where our focus is. And it really remains on cash generation while we position our businesses for long-term success. And that's because we're in a world where demand continues to be low at an end use level. And certainly, with some of the supply chain disruption that we're seeing here in the second quarter, we're going to go capture that.

是的。謝謝你的問題，Ghansham。我想我們對焦點一直相當一致。我們的重點仍然是現金創造，同時讓各項業務為長期成功做好定位。這是因為在目前的環境下，終端需求仍然偏低。當然，第二季我們看到一些供應鏈中斷，我們會把握並承接這些機會。

But we are really building something that we believe is very resilient as we go forward. So as we look to the second half, we ran a lot of different scenarios. And as we look at the scenario, we do believe the right one to assume in the second half is one where supply chains start to unwind here by the end of the quarter here in Q2, and you see that kind of moderate on where volumes and margins are in the second half. And we just believe that's the right assumption at this point.

但我們正在打造一個我們相信在未來非常具韌性的體系。因此在看下半年時，我們跑了很多不同情境。在這些情境中，我們認為下半年最合理的假設是：供應鏈在第二季末前開始逐步解開（unwind），而下半年在銷量與利潤率方面會回到較為溫和的水準。我們相信以目前來看，這是正確的假設。

Okay. Thanks for that, Scott. And then as it relates to some of the network moves you've made in terms of ramping up capacity in certain cases in Frankfurt, et cetera, VAM, VAE and so on and so forth. What happens in the scenario that demand normalizes, would you adjust accordingly given that you're ramping up this capacity again, obviously, based on search demand, et cetera?

了解。謝謝你，Scott。接著關於你們在網路布局上的一些調整，例如在法蘭克福等地提升某些產能、VAM、VAE 等等。如果需求回歸常態，你們會如何因應？鑑於你們正在再次拉升這些產能，顯然是基於短期需求等因素，你們會相應調整嗎？

Yeah. The words we use internally, Ghansham, are being positioned to respond. And that's not just here in Q2. This is how we operate every single day. And we've run Frankfurt, we've run Singapore as swing units, but we also swing our operating rates in the Acetyl Chain as needed.

會的。Ghansham，我們內部用的說法是「做好回應的定位」。這不只是第二季的作法。這是我們每天的營運方式。我們把法蘭克福與新加坡當作可切換（swing）的機組來運行，同時也會視需要調整乙醯鏈（Acetyl Chain）的開工率。

We pivot our supply chain in Engineered Materials as customer demand shifts and changes. And so we're going to continue to position the company and the day-to-day business where it needs to be to respond. And so if demand continues to stay where it is, we've got the assets running where they are. Demand changes, then we'll pivot as needed.

在工程材料（Engineered Materials）方面，隨著客戶需求移動與變化，我們會調整供應鏈。因此我們會持續讓公司與日常營運保持在需要的位置，以便做出回應。如果需求維持在目前水準，我們就讓資產以目前的方式運行。若需求改變，我們就會視需要轉向調整。

Okay, perfect. Thanks for that, Scott.

好的，很完美。謝謝你，Scott。

Patrick Cunningham, Citi.

Patrick Cunningham，花旗（Citi）。

Hi, good morning. Your US production at Clear Lake has a pretty significant advantage. I guess how have operating rates trended in the first quarter? And how are they progressing into 2Q and I'm just curious if there are any limiting factors to maximizing those rates or any logistics bottlenecks you foresee across the complex.

嗨，早安。你們在美國 Clear Lake 的生產具有相當顯著的優勢。我想問第一季的開工率趨勢如何？進入第二季的進展又如何？我也想了解，是否有任何限制因素會影響將開工率最大化，或是你們預期在整個園區（complex）會出現任何物流瓶頸？

Yeah. Thanks, Patrick. It really is about reliability of supply for our customers. And Clear Lake is a great asset that can flex really across the products that we make there. And then we've got downstream assets positioned around the world that can also flex. And as I just mentioned on the previous question, Frankfurt is one of those assets that we block operated in a way that can flex as needed. And we're going to continue to adjust those rates as needed, as you can imagine, just given where some of the supply chain challenges have been this quarter, Clear Lake is running at a relatively high utilization rate.

是的。謝謝你，Patrick。這主要關乎為客戶提供可靠的供應。Clear Lake 是一項很棒的資產，能在我們於該地生產的各類產品之間靈活調整。此外，我們在全球各地也配置了下游資產，同樣具備彈性。如我在上一題提到的，法蘭克福就是其中一項資產，我們以區塊式（block）方式運行，使其可視需要彈性調整。我們會持續視需要調整這些開工率；你可以想像，鑑於本季供應鏈挑戰的情況，Clear Lake 目前以相對高的產能利用率在運行。

Got it. And then just on EM. Can you talk a little bit about the playbook in sort of response or in context of the crisis in terms of pricing, share gain opportunities how is the Nylon 66 market performed? And any meaningful change in supply or trade flow dynamics at this point?

了解。接著談工程材料（EM）。能否談談在危機情境下的應對手冊（playbook），例如定價、爭取市占的機會？尼龍 66 市場表現如何？以及目前在供給或貿易流向動態上，是否有任何顯著變化？

Yeah. Look, how we look at our EM business, these are the right products at the right time to drive growth in a world that is challenged for growth. And we do that by ensuring that we've got the right segment focus and then kind of drill down below that into a subsegment focus. And we are extremely well positioned with the asset base from a compounding standpoint, which is where we create the most value in that last step of the process, our assets are extremely well positioned in each region.

好的。我們看待 EM 業務的方式是：在一個成長受限的世界裡，這些是在對的時間提供對的產品，以推動成長。我們透過確保聚焦在正確的細分領域（segment），並進一步下鑽到次細分領域（subsegment）來做到這點。從配混（compounding）的資產布局來看，我們的定位非常好；在製程最後一步的配混環節是我們創造最大價值之處，而我們的資產在各區域的布局都非常到位。

And so we are able to move polymer or buy polymer in each region to be able to adjust as certain products may have scarcity because of supply chain challenges, or be able to adjust pricing to deal with rising feedstock costs. And it does tend to take a quarter or two for those feedstocks to really fully flow through in the Engineered Materials business. And so it was important that we work to try to get ahead of that from a pricing standpoint now.

因此，我們能在各區域移轉聚合物（polymer）或就地採購聚合物，以便在某些產品因供應鏈挑戰而出現短缺時進行調整，或是透過調整價格來因應上升的原料成本。而在工程材料業務中，這些原料成本通常需要一到兩個季度才會完全反映。因此，我們現在從定價角度提前布局、力求走在前面是很重要的。

Jeff Zekauskas, JPMorgan.

Jeff Zekauskas，摩根大通（JPMorgan）。

Thanks very much. Can you talk about prospects for Ibn Sina and how that will affect your Engineered Materials EBIT or EBITDA or equity income?

非常感謝。你能談談 Ibn Sina 的前景，以及這將如何影響你們工程材料的 EBIT、EBITDA 或權益法收益（equity income）嗎？

Yeah. Thanks, Jeff. When you look at Ibn Sina, in 2025, they actually had a fairly large turnaround. So earnings were a little bit lower last year. And so right now, as we estimate earnings 2026 versus 2025, we're assuming pretty much flattish, Jeff, on what rolls through equity earnings right now.

好的。謝謝你，Jeff。談到 Ibn Sina，2025 年他們其實進行了一次規模相當大的歲修（turnaround）。因此去年獲利略低一些。所以目前我們在估算 2026 年相較 2025 年的獲利時，對於目前會反映在權益法收益中的部分，我們的假設基本上是大致持平（flattish），Jeff。

Now the plant -- most of the assets there have not been operating for the last six weeks or so because of shipping constraints as well as a raw material feedstock disruption. And so you'll have to see kind of where that goes here into the second half, but given the fact that we are on a one-quarter lag, there. And the fact that 2025 was a pretty low number, we're right now assuming flattish.

現在那座工廠——那裡的大多數資產在過去大約六週左右都沒有運轉，原因是航運限制以及原料供應中斷。因此，你得看看進入下半年後情況會如何發展，但鑑於我們存在一個季度的滯後。再加上2025年的基數相當低，我們目前假設大致持平。

Okay. Great. And then in the Acetyl Chain, in the second quarter, you're going to make maybe a little less than $200 million more. Can you analyze that in terms of, is it more acetic acid? Is it more VAM? Is it more China? Is it more US exports? Can you give us an idea of how that improvement in the Acetyl Chain flows?

好的。很好。接著在乙醯鏈（Acetyl Chain）方面，第二季你們可能會多賺不到2億美元。你能從構成上分析一下嗎：是更多來自醋酸（acetic acid）？是更多來自VAM？是更多來自中國？是更多來自美國出口？能否讓我們了解乙醯鏈這項改善是如何體現在業績上的？

Yeah. So I would say it's not really dissimilar to kind of fundamentally how the business operates in most quarters. The majority of the profit, as we've said in the past, comes from the Western Hemisphere. And I think the lift here from Q1 to Q2 is definitely weighted heavier towards the Western Hemisphere as well. And it's that low-cost advantage that we have in our asset base in Clear Lake and being able to utilize that across the Western world.

是的。所以我會說，這在本質上並沒有太不同於我們業務在多數季度的運作方式。正如我們過去所說，大部分利潤來自西半球。而且我認為這次從第一季到第二季的提升，也明顯更偏向西半球。這得益於我們在Clear Lake資產基礎所具備的低成本優勢，並能將其運用到整個西方市場。

We have seen margins move up in Asia as well. I would say from a product standpoint, Jeff, very much disproportionate to the vinyls chain. So think VAM downstream into vinyl emulsions and then redispersable powder. So again, not dissimilar to how we've talked about the business to being a lot of the profitability coming less from selling acetic acid as acetic acid, but really monetizing downstream and then seeing pockets of growth opportunity.

我們也看到亞洲的利潤率有所上升。我會說，從產品角度來看，Jeff，這非常不成比例地偏向乙烯基（vinyls）鏈。所以可以想像是VAM往下游到乙烯基乳液（vinyl emulsions），再到可再分散乳膠粉（redispersable powder）。因此，同樣地，這並不不同於我們一直以來對業務的描述：獲利更多不是來自把醋酸當作醋酸來賣，而是透過下游變現，並看到一些成長機會的利基。

We've talked over the last year or so about the importance of vinyl emulsions as well as powder is kind of being a very small pocket of growth in certain parts of the world, and we're definitely seeing that right now. And vinyls chemistry has a nice advantage in a higher oil environment over competing systems. And so we're seeing and working with customers on growth opportunities to drive some switching as well. And so that's really where that focus is much more downstream in the product portfolio.

過去一年左右我們談到乙烯基乳液以及粉體的重要性，它們在世界某些地區算是一個非常小的成長利基，而我們現在確實看到了。而且在高油價環境下，相較於競爭體系，乙烯基化學具有不錯的優勢。因此我們正與客戶一起看到並推動成長機會，也帶動一些替代轉換。所以重點其實更在產品組合的下游端。

Okay. Thank you very much.

好的。非常感謝。

Vincent Andrews, Morgan Stanley.

Morgan Stanley 的 Vincent Andrews。

Thank you and good morning. I wanted to ask on the second half in EM. There's some comments in the prepared remarks about what you're doing on the nylon side of the equation that you expect some inventory drawdowns and some structural inventory reductions that were already underway. So is that coming on the customer side of the equation? And you think that's going to accelerate because you're going to be reducing capacity? If you could just color on some of those lines for us, that would be helpful.

謝謝，早安。我想問一下工程材料（EM）下半年的情況。在事先準備的講稿裡有一些評論提到你們在尼龍這一塊所做的事情，你們預期會有一些庫存去化，以及一些已在進行中的結構性庫存降低。所以這是發生在客戶端嗎？而且你們認為因為你們要降低產能，所以這會加速？如果你能就這些內容補充說明一下，會很有幫助。

Yeah. Hey, Vincent, yeah, in the second half, in Engineered Materials, we would expect an additional $50 million of absorption hit on the income statement. That is from drawing that nylon from the transition. But we've had, as you know, some other structural inventory production actions underway, right?

是的。嗨，Vincent，是的，在下半年，在工程材料方面，我們預期損益表上會額外出現5,000萬美元的吸收（absorption）衝擊。這是來自於在轉換過程中去化那部分尼龍庫存。但如你所知，我們也已經在推進其他一些結構性的庫存與生產行動，對吧？

So yeah, I would say, even with all that, we are targeting to grow at the end of the year, which will more than offset these -- so absorption hits over the year, which is about $35 million, the turnaround expense, which is about $15 million here coming in Q2. Potential raw material cost pressures that Scott talked about or even demand pull back and also offsetting the Micromax earnings, right?

所以是的，我會說，即便有這些因素，我們仍以年底實現成長為目標，這將足以抵消這些——也就是全年吸收衝擊約3,500萬美元、第二季進來的歲修費用約1,500萬美元。以及Scott提到的潛在原料成本壓力，甚至需求回落，同時也要抵消Micromax的獲利，對吧？

So at the same time, I think it's important to remember, we're also fortifying the base in EM, reducing costs, reducing complexity, taking this inventory permanently out of the system. So it's really been in the plan and in place for some time.

同時，我認為也很重要的一點是，我們也在強化工程材料的基礎，降低成本、降低複雜度，並把這些庫存永久性地從系統中移除。所以這其實已經在計畫中並且執行了一段時間。

Okay. And if I could just follow up on the Acetyl Chain. I didn't -- I don't think I saw this in prepared remarks. Does the second half assume that you're still running Frankfurt for the full second half? Or does it assume some reduction in operations there?

好的。如果我可以追問一下乙醯鏈。我不——我想我在事先準備的講稿裡沒有看到這點。下半年是否假設你們法蘭克福（Frankfurt）會整個下半年都維持運轉？還是說假設那邊會有一些營運縮減？

Yeah, Vincent, there's different scenarios that could potentially play out. And so we are assuming that Frankfurt is going to operate into the second half at this point. We do have some turnaround activity in two of our VAM units around the world. We've got both the US VAM units in turnaround between now and the end of the year. And so just depending on where demand is at, we'll determine what that Frankfurt operating rate schedule will look like. And -- but certainly, the expectation is that it's going to operate into the second half.

是的，Vincent，可能會有不同情境發生。因此我們目前的假設是法蘭克福會運轉到下半年。我們在全球兩套VAM裝置有一些歲修活動。我們美國的VAM裝置在現在到年底之間都會進行歲修。所以要看需求在哪個水位，我們會決定法蘭克福的運轉負荷排程會是什麼樣子。而且——但可以確定的是，預期它會運轉到下半年。

Thank you very much.

非常感謝。

Michael Sison, Wells Fargo.

Wells Fargo 的 Michael Sison。

Hey, guys. Nice start to the year. In terms of the second half, just curious, if nothing really changes in terms of the conflict here, does the run rate in 2Q for EPS kind of mirror third quarter, meaning does third quarter look like second quarter and then you sort of have a bigger drop in the fourth to get to your $3? Or is it -- are you assuming things get better and we're kind of $1.50, $1.50?

嗨，各位。今年開局不錯。就下半年而言，我只是好奇，如果衝突在這裡的情況沒有太大改變，第二季的每股盈餘（EPS）運行水準是否會大致對應第三季？也就是說第三季看起來像第二季，然後第四季再出現較大的下滑以達到你們的3美元？還是——你們是假設情況會變好，然後大概是1.50、1.50這樣？

Yeah. Let me hit kind of a high level there, Mike. And then I'll turn it to Chuck to talk about kind of the cadence. As we look at the second half guide, it was really kind of looking at a scenario where we start to see some of the unwinding of the supply chains here by the end of Q2 and then kind of continuing into the third quarter and then into the fourth quarter.

是的。Mike，我先從較高層次回應一下。然後我會交給Chuck談談節奏。我們在看下半年指引時，基本上是以這樣的情境為出發點：到第二季末我們開始看到供應鏈的一些解套，接著延續到第三季，再進入第四季。

Your question is, if we see things kind of stay where they are, I would look at how we think about our business. I mentioned that position to respond earlier. It's kind of like a coiled spring. And if the opportunity is there, then we're going to release that spring. And so if things stay where they are from a demand and a supply chain standpoint, then there's certainly upside in the second half.

你的問題是，如果我們看到情況大致維持現狀，我會用我們看待業務的方式來回答。我先前提到我們具備回應的能力。這有點像一個被壓縮的彈簧。如果機會出現，我們就會釋放那個彈簧。因此，如果從需求與供應鏈角度來看情況維持現狀，那麼下半年確實存在上行空間。

Yeah, Mike, based on the guide, there's a lot of moving parts and a lot of uncertainty. But I think probably the easiest way to think about it right now is if you look at normal seasonality in any given year, Q3 versus Q4, it's about $25 million, $30 million in each business. I think for now, that's a pretty good place to start. I wouldn't be surprised to see a similar pattern this year.

是的，Mike，基於這份指引，有很多變動因素，也有很多不確定性。但我想目前最簡單的思考方式可能是：如果你看任何一年正常的季節性，第三季相對第四季，每個事業大約差2,500萬到3,000萬美元。我認為就目前而言，這是一個相當好的起點。我不會意外今年也會看到類似的模式。

Got it. And then just a follow-up on Clear Lake. I recall Clear Lake 2 was running full out or running pretty high. Is Clear Lake 1 now sort of ramped fully up to sort of take advantage of the higher pricing and such? And then where are industry margins now relative to the past peaks?

了解。接著再追問一下 Clear Lake。我記得 Clear Lake 2 當時是滿載或接近高負荷運轉。那 Clear Lake 1 現在是否也算是已經完全拉升，以便把握較高的價格等因素？另外，目前產業利潤率相較於過去高峰處於什麼位置？

Yeah, Mike, let me answer your last question first. Certainly, we are nowhere near kind of what would be past peak demand levels globally or mid-cycle demand levels globally. And so I would not necessarily compare that to past periods from a margin or a volume perspective.

是的，Mike，我先回答你最後一個問題。很明顯，我們目前距離過去全球需求高峰水準或全球中周期需求水準都還差得很遠。因此，我不會必然從利潤率或銷量的角度，把現在與過去那些時期做對比。

And in terms of your first question, I would go back to the answer to Jeff's question is the majority of the opportunities that we're seeing are more downstream for acetic acid in the vinyls chain. And so as we look at Clear Lake operating rates, we've got both of those assets that we have there kind of dialed in at the right level to get the optimal usage, et cetera, and efficiency that we want from both assets and being able to pivot up or down as needed. So really, it's more of a downstream opportunity that we're seeing as opposed to fundamental acetic acid demand.

至於你第一個問題，我會回到我對 Jeff 那個問題的回答：我們看到的大多數機會，更多是在乙酸於乙烯基產業鏈中的下游端。因此，當我們看 Clear Lake 的開工率時，我們在那裡的兩項資產都已調整到合適的水準，以取得最佳使用率等，以及我們希望兩項資產都能達到的效率，並且能視需要向上或向下調整。所以，真正看到的是下游機會，而不是乙酸基本面需求。

Thank you.

謝謝。

David Begleiter, Deutsche Bank.

德意志銀行 David Begleiter。

Thank you, good morning. Scott, some of your peers have talked about 9 to 12 months until supply chains normalize post the end of the conflict. It looks like you're targeting maybe a shorter time line to normalization acetyls. Can you talk to that time line you're looking at? Thank you.

謝謝，早安。Scott，你的一些同業談到，衝突結束後供應鏈要 9 到 12 個月才會恢復正常。看起來你們對乙醯基（acetyls）正常化的目標時間線可能更短。能談談你們所看的那條時間線嗎？謝謝。

Yeah. Thanks, David. Look, it's about scenario planning, and there's a lot of different scenarios that could play out. And as you kind of look at the assumptions that we've made here that we start to things begin to unwind and that begin of that unwinding. It just -- it depends on what that kind of decline curve looks like in terms of volume and price based upon the speed of that unwinding.

好的。謝謝你，David。你看，這關乎情境規劃，可能出現很多不同的情境。當你檢視我們在這裡所做的假設——也就是情勢開始鬆動、並且開始出現那種鬆動的起點——其實就取決於在那個鬆動速度之下，量與價的下滑曲線會長什麼樣子。

And I think that is uncertain right now. But we felt like it was important to be prudent in terms of how things could play out because there's also a potential offset to demand with feedstock prices high and where they are, there could be an impact to underlying demand. And so we kind of put all those things out there.

我認為目前這點仍不確定。但我們覺得，從審慎角度出發去看可能的發展很重要，因為原料價格高企、且維持在目前水準，也可能對需求形成抵銷，進而影響基礎需求。所以我們把這些因素都納入考量。

And again, felt like it was the prudent guide for the second half. But also, as I said earlier, look, we are ready. And our team has done a great job of responding to the environment here in the second quarter. And if we see that environment continue, then we'll go capture that upside.

再說一次，我們覺得這是對下半年最審慎的指引。但同時，如我先前所說，我們已經準備好了。我們的團隊在第二季對當前環境的應對做得非常好。如果我們看到這樣的環境延續，我們就會去把那個上行空間抓住。

Very good. And just on EM, you've announced some price increases. So what's the cadence of price cost as we go through Q2? Are you ahead behind or neutral? And how is it go into the back half of the year? Thank you.

很好。另外關於 EM，你們已宣布一些漲價。那麼在第二季進行期間，價格與成本的傳導節奏如何？你們是領先、落後，還是大致持平？以及進入下半年會如何？謝謝。

Yeah, we're starting to get some of that price flowing through as it is kind of a slow uptick here in the second quarter, but it's important that we really begin to achieve that because the cost, while flowing through a little bit here in Q2 is going to hit us heavier in Q3. And I think we should see that hopefully fully materialize in the P&L in the third quarter. And so it's important as we exit Q2 that we're achieving the maximum amount of that price. So we're certainly on the trajectory there. But the next six weeks here as we finish the quarter are going to be really important in that equation.

是的，我們開始看到部分價格逐步反映出來，因為第二季這裡是比較緩慢的上行；但重要的是我們必須真正把這些價格落實到位，因為成本雖然在第二季也會有一些傳導，但在第三季對我們的衝擊會更大。我認為希望能在第三季的損益表中看到它完全顯現。因此，當我們走出第二季時，能夠實現最大幅度的價格非常重要。所以我們確實正朝那個方向前進。但接下來六週、也就是我們完成本季的這段時間，對這個方程式會非常關鍵。

Thank you.

謝謝。

Frank Mitsch, Fermium Research.

Fermium Research 的 Frank Mitsch。

Terrific. Thank you. And actually, David's question leads nicely into what I wanted to ask about, and that's on the acetyl side of things. I mean, as you look at the second quarter, my assumption, and please correct me and expand upon it is that you're raising price in the acetyls upstream and downstream. And the expectation would be that you're going to end the second quarter at a higher price level than what the 2Q average would be such that we're going to start 3Q at a higher level.

太好了。謝謝。其實 David 的問題正好引出我想問的，也就是乙醯基（acetyl）這一塊。我的假設是——也請你指正並補充——當你看第二季時，你們在乙醯基的上游與下游都在提價。而預期是，你們在第二季結束時的價格水準會高於第二季平均，因而第三季一開始就會在較高水準起步。

I mean -- so a couple of questions. Is that how you're thinking about it as well? And based on your prudent guidance, are you factoring some measure of price degradation in the third quarter? Or how do you think about the price balance on acetyls and how we're going to enter the second half?

也就是說——我有幾個問題。你們的思考也是這樣嗎？另外，基於你們審慎的指引，你們是否在第三季納入某種程度的價格走弱？或者你們如何看待乙醯基的價格平衡，以及我們將如何進入下半年？

Yeah, Frank, I don't know on a global basis that, that necessarily is right assumption. We've already seen pricing in China start to moderate as from where it was in -- at the beginning of April. So actually, I don't think on a global basis, that's actually kind of the case of where things will be. I think we'll probably see that price in Asia, stay where it is or possibly moderate a little more as we work our way through the quarter.

是的，Frank，我不確定從全球角度來看，這個假設是否成立。我們已經看到中國的價格開始從四月初的水準回落、趨於緩和。所以其實我認為從全球角度來看，情況並不是那樣。我想在亞洲，價格可能會維持在目前水準，或在本季進行過程中再小幅走弱一些。

In the Western Hemisphere, where pricing is now is probably similar to where it will be at the end of the quarter, depending on where competitive dynamics are. So I actually think where we were in April was probably the higher watermark just as we look at the cadence today.

在西半球，目前的價格大概會與季末相近，這取決於競爭態勢。所以就我們今天看到的節奏而言，我其實認為四月的水準可能就是相對高點。

I understand what you're saying about China. My understanding is that some of that was also demand destruction. So they actually don't have -- you can't sell the products downstream at least here in the near term. But from -- in the Western world, would you assume that in North America, that you would give back something on price in the third quarter?

我理解你對中國的說法。我的理解是，其中一部分也是需求被破壞。所以至少在短期內，他們下游產品其實賣不出去。但就——在西方世界而言，你會假設在北美第三季價格會回吐一些嗎？

I think it's TBD, Frank. I think volume, we've got a moderation of margins and price as you work your way through the third quarter. Just from a normal seasonality standpoint, Q2 tends to be the highest quarter from a volumetric perspective, typically in acetyl. So you would normally have some volume come off in Q3 from a seasonality perspective through the holiday period. And so we've kind of factored some of that into the assumptions for Q3.

我認為這還有待觀察（TBD），Frank。我認為隨著第三季推進，我們的確預期利潤率與價格會有所緩和。從正常季節性來看，第二季通常是乙醯基在銷量（體量）角度最高的一季。因此，從季節性角度，第三季通常會因假期期間而出現一些量的下滑。所以我們已把其中一部分納入第三季假設。

Thank you so much, Scoot. I appreciate it.

非常感謝你，Scoot。我很感激。

Hassan Ahmed, Alembic Global.

Alembic Global 的 Hassan Ahmed。

Morning, Scott. Just wanted to sort of dig a little deeper about this sort of uneven sort of pricing dynamic regionally that you guys talked about within acetic. I mean my understanding is that as I take a look at the raw material side of things, just in the Middle East alone, there seems to be 26 million to 27 million tons of methanol capacity that is off-line, right? And obviously, methanol pricing across the globe has risen quite rapidly, including China, right?

早安，Scott。我想更深入挖掘一下你們談到的、乙酸（acetic）在區域間不均衡的定價動態。我的理解是，若我看原料端，光是在中東，就似乎有 2,600 萬到 2,700 萬噸的甲醇產能處於停產狀態，對吧？而且很明顯，全球各地的甲醇價格都上漲得相當快，包括中國，對吧？

So I'm just trying to understand this recent dip that we've seen, particularly in Chinese spot acetic pricing. Where are the margins there? Are operating rates still relatively elevated? Just trying to sort of make sense of this uneven sort of pricing environment by region.

所以我只是想了解一下我們最近看到的這波回落，特別是中國現貨醋酸價格的下跌。那邊的利潤率現在在哪個水準？開工率是否仍然相對偏高？我只是想大致釐清一下這種按地區呈現不均衡的定價環境。

Yeah, Hassan, I think that's a good time to really call out the decisive actions that our team in acetyls has taken around the world in the quarter. They responded really quickly at the end of Q1 in order to take advantage of the margins started to move up there in China, in particular, and that's really the only place that we saw benefit from some of the supply chain disruption in Q1, but they were really working to position for the second quarter.

是的，Hassan，我覺得這正好是個時機，來特別指出我們乙醯基團隊在本季於全球採取的果斷行動。他們在第一季末反應非常迅速，為了把握中國那邊利潤率開始上升的機會，尤其是在中國；而那其實也是我們在第一季因供應鏈中斷而看到受益的唯一地區，但他們確實是在為第二季做布局。

And as we kind of look at it, your margins were highest probably here in Q2 in China at the very beginning of the quarter, and they've come off. But we're certainly not at margin levels where they were at the beginning of 2026. So you're kind of in between that -- where they were at the beginning of April and where they were when we started the year.

而從我們的觀察來看，你們在中國的利潤率大概是在第二季一開始的時候達到最高，之後就回落了。但我們當然還沒有回到 2026 年初那種利潤率水準。所以你現在大概介於——介於四月初的水準與年初我們開始時的水準之間。

And so it's somewhere in that zone. We did see -- China was in holiday last week, came back today. Pricing did move up a little bit. So we're going to have to kind of see where -- how that holds and where demand is. But demand has held relatively steady from what we can tell through the value chain in China.

所以大概就在那個區間。我們確實看到——中國上週在放假，今天才恢復。價格確實小幅上調了一點。所以我們還得再觀察——看看這個漲勢能否維持，以及需求在哪裡。但就我們從中國價值鏈所能判斷的，需求一直維持相對穩定。

Very helpful, Scott. And as a follow-up, can you just give us an update on where you guys stand with regards to any further potential divestitures?

非常有幫助，Scott。那追問一下，你能否更新一下你們在任何進一步潛在資產剝離（divestitures）方面的進展？

Yeah, Hassan. Yeah, we continue to work that very aggressively. And I would say the current events haven't helped the M&A market. But regardless, we do feel good about signing another deal this year. It could be a smaller deal, but we're working hard to get one signed. We have not baked in any assumption for cash proceeds from a deal just from the uncertainty of kind of signing versus closing.

好的，Hassan。是的，我們仍在非常積極地推進這件事。我會說，近期事件確實不利於併購（M&A）市場。但不管怎樣，我們對於今年再簽下一筆交易仍然有信心。可能會是一筆較小的交易，但我們正努力推動簽約。由於簽約與交割之間存在不確定性，我們在模型中尚未納入任何來自交易現金收入的假設。

Very helpful. Thank you so much.

非常有幫助。非常感謝。

Kevin McCarthy, Vertical Research Partners.

Kevin McCarthy，Vertical Research Partners。

Thank you and good morning. Scott, can you speak to your mix of contract versus spot business within acetyls on a pre-war basis and speak to how that is evolving, if it's changing at all post war. For example, if we consider VAM and some of the parabolic price action there, is your philosophy to sort of strike while the iron is hot and take advantage of this windfall opportunity, you might say? Or is it to really focus on upgrading your contracts and the terms and the mix with an eye toward the medium to longer term or some balance of those? Maybe you can just kind of talk through that and how you're thinking about it.

謝謝，早安。Scott，你能談談在戰前基準下，你們乙醯基業務中合約與現貨的組合比例，以及在戰後這個組合如何演變、是否有任何變化嗎？例如，如果我們看 VAM 以及那邊近乎拋物線式的價格走勢，你們的理念是趁熱打鐵、把握這個你可以說是意外之財的機會嗎？還是更著重於升級你們的合約、條款與組合，著眼於中長期，或是在兩者之間取得某種平衡？也許你可以談談你們的思考方式。

Yeah. Let me just kind of step back a minute, Kevin. Our team is first focused on being the most reliable supplier in each region, in each product. And I think we've developed a network pretty deliberately for over many, many years that can achieve this and give us flex to be able to respond to what happens and what kind of landscape changes happen.

好的。Kevin，我先稍微退一步說明一下。我們團隊首先聚焦的是在每個地區、每個產品上成為最可靠的供應商。我認為我們多年來非常有意識地打造了一個網路，能做到這一點，並且讓我們具備彈性，以便因應發生的事情以及市場格局的變化。

And so the pricing mechanisms that we have are different in each region, in each product, to be honest. We've got some formula pricing in certain regions, particularly VAM in the United States that we've talked about. It kind of moves with raw materials, gives us a nice base, gives us cost pass-through. We've got a lot more contracted business in Asia, but moves with how the market is moving very quickly. And then we've got blends in the balance of the business in the US and in Europe on different mechanisms.

因此，老實說，我們在各地區、各產品的定價機制都不一樣。在某些地區我們採用公式定價，特別是我們談過的美國 VAM。它會隨原料變動，給我們一個不錯的基礎，也讓我們能把成本轉嫁出去。在亞洲我們有更多合約型業務，但會隨市場變化非常快速地調整。而在美國與歐洲的其餘業務，我們則採用不同機制的混合模式。

And so this is about being ready in an environment like we are now. And so being able to flex with some extra volume gives us that ability to be that reliable supplier for customers and for new customers that are just coming to Celanese or just coming back to Celanese. And so it is about how do we get that business secured longer term. And we are securing business that we had -- didn't have under agreement for the second half. And so as that process works here in the second quarter, it will give us better clarity on what the third and fourth quarter are going to look like as we are able to utilize this flex capacity that we have.

所以這一切都是為了在像現在這樣的環境中做好準備。而能夠透過一些額外的彈性產量來調整，讓我們有能力成為客戶以及新客戶——那些剛開始找 Celanese、或剛回到 Celanese 的客戶——的可靠供應商。因此，重點在於我們如何把這些業務以更長期的方式鎖定下來。我們正在把原本——在下半年尚未簽訂協議的業務——納入並完成鎖定。因此，當這個流程在第二季推進時，隨著我們能運用手上的彈性產能，將讓我們更清楚第三季與第四季會是什麼樣子。

And then secondly, I wanted to ask about your new strategic initiatives in nylon that you announced last night in the US and Singapore, I think you're targeting incremental cost savings of $30 million. So maybe you can step through what you're doing there and comment on the cash cost to achieve those savings? And the timing of the flow-through of the $30 million in coming quarters or years?

第二個問題是關於你們昨晚宣布在美國與新加坡的尼龍新策略舉措，我想你們目標是新增 3,000 萬美元的成本節省。所以也許你可以逐步說明你們在做什麼，並評論一下為了達成這些節省所需的現金成本？以及這 3,000 萬美元在未來幾季或幾年中轉化（flow-through）的時間點？

Yeah. Let me hit kind of the philosophy and the strategy around the changes, Kevin, and then I'll turn it to Chuck to talk about some of the details. When it comes to Nylon 66, we've been very open about this now for more than a year. And as we said in the past, our value is in the compounding step of the process. And that's not changing here.

好的。Kevin，我先談一下這些變更背後的理念與策略，然後我會請 Chuck 來補充一些細節。談到 Nylon 66，我們在過去一年多一直非常坦率地談這件事。而且如同我們過去所說，我們的價值在於製程中的改質造粒（compounding）步驟。這一點不會改變。

And in fact, we're enhancing our compounding capabilities in our specialty products where we need to, to ensure the reliability of supply to our customers. And we've had a very thoughtful step plan to ensure the short- and long-term sustainability of how we get polymer. And so being able to optimize this make versus buy on polymer is critically important.

事實上，我們正在我們需要的地方強化在特殊產品上的改質造粒能力，以確保對客戶供應的可靠性。而且我們有一個非常周全的分階段計畫，以確保我們取得聚合物（polymer）的方式在短期與長期都具可持續性。因此，能夠優化聚合物的自製與外購（make versus buy）至關重要。

And so these announcements around polymer capacity for us is really the next big wave of that commitment to improving the fundamental profitability of the Nylon 66 business, and we believe these are the right news for us right now. I think as we go forward, we would expect about $30 million of savings. As you mentioned, about a third of that will probably hit here in the second half of the year.

因此，這些關於聚合物產能的公告，對我們而言其實是下一波重大舉措，展現我們致力於提升 Nylon 66 業務基本獲利能力的承諾；我們相信這些對我們來說是當下正確的消息。我想展望未來，我們預期大約可節省 3,000 萬美元。如你所提到的，其中約三分之一可能會在今年下半年開始反映出來。

And I'll turn it to Chuck to talk about the other details.

我把時間交給 Chuck 來談其他細節。

Yeah. Thanks, Kevin. Yeah, like Scott said, about a third of that $30 million starts rolling in this year. Your question on the cash costs, think about that as sort of less than a one-year payback of that $30 million. That's been in our free cash flow forecast this year. So nothing incremental there.

好的。謝謝，Kevin。是的，如 Scott 所說，那 3,000 萬美元中大約三分之一會在今年開始逐步實現。你問到現金成本的部分，可以把它理解為：為了達成這 3,000 萬美元節省所需的現金支出，其回收期少於一年。這已經包含在我們今年的自由現金流預測中。所以沒有額外新增的部分。

Thanks so much.

非常感謝。

Laurence Alexander, Jefferies.

Laurence Alexander，Jefferies。

Good morning. Just wanted to flesh out how you're thinking on working capital. How much you think in your base case, working capital will be a use of cash for this year? And as you think about this year and next year, is working capital just ebbing and flowing with your expectations around input costs? Or is there going to be some net drag on EBITDA at some point to work to reduce your working capital position?

早安。我想更深入了解你們對營運資金的思考。在你們的基本情境下，你們認為今年營運資金會消耗多少現金？以及當你們看今年與明年時，營運資金是否只是隨著你們對投入成本的預期而起伏變動？或者在某個時間點，為了降低你們的營運資金水位，是否會對 EBITDA 造成一些淨拖累？

Yeah. Thanks, Laurence. Let me talk about free cash flow this year and sort of talk about working capital within that. If you look at our midpoint of our earnings guide, that's about a few hundred million of EBITDA growth this year. That will translate into free cash flow, but it is likely that -- it will be split between '26 and '27 as it works its way through working capital.

是的。謝謝你，Laurence。我來談談我們今年的自由現金流，並順帶談一下其中的營運資金。如果你看我們獲利指引的中位數，今年大約會有數億美元的EBITDA成長。這會轉化為自由現金流，但很可能——會在'26與'27之間分攤，因為它會透過營運資金逐步反映出來。

Right now to simplify, we're assuming we collect about half of that increased EBITDA this year and half next year. So that would mean about half of that gets tied up in working capital. I think before that, we were assuming this year actually that working capital would be a source of cash of, say, call it, $100 million as we continue to reduce inventory in EM.

為了簡化起見，我們目前假設今年能收回約一半的EBITDA增量，另一半在明年收回。因此，這代表大約有一半會被占用在營運資金裡。我想在此之前，我們原本假設今年營運資金實際上會是現金來源，例如大約1億美元，因為我們會持續在EM降低庫存。

So maybe working capital in this scenario is closer to flat for the year. And then I think you kind of ebb and flow with demand, but we do expect to continue to take inventory out of the system and generate tailwinds in working capital.

所以在這個情境下，營運資金今年可能更接近持平。接著我認為你會隨著需求而有起伏，但我們確實預期會持續把庫存從系統中移出，並在營運資金上帶來順風。

Thank you.

謝謝。

John McNulty, BMO.

John McNulty，BMO。

Yeah, good morning. Thanks for taking my question. So on EM, with all of the work that you've been doing and I guess, some incremental work even this year, I guess, is there a way to think about -- maybe this year is not necessarily a normal year, I guess, is there a way to think about what you think the mid-cycle earnings power of the business is now just given all the changes that you're completing and also maybe a more normalized demand environment?

是的，早安。謝謝讓我提問。關於EM，考量你們一直在做的所有工作，以及我想今年也還有一些額外的工作，我想問——也許今年不一定算是正常的一年——有沒有一種方式可以思考：在你們完成所有這些變革、以及在較為正常化的需求環境下，這項業務目前的中周期獲利能力大概會是什麼樣子？

Yeah. Thanks, John. The words that we used in the prepared comments, I think, are important to think about here. It's really about Growth & Fortify. And as we think about the Fortify piece, I mean that's -- we've been working that hard with the cost reduction actions that we've taken out, the efficiency that we've been able to drive, how we're adding technology to the business with our Chemille platform, there is -- we are strengthening this business and positioning it to be able to ready to respond to customer needs.

是的。謝謝你，John。我認為我們在事先準備的評論裡用到的措辭，對理解這點很重要。核心其實是「成長與強化（Growth & Fortify）」。當我們談到「強化」這一塊時——我們一直非常努力，透過已採取的降本措施、我們推動的效率提升、以及透過Chemille平台為業務導入科技——我們正在強化這項業務，並讓它具備隨時回應客戶需求的能力與定位。

The other thing that the team has been working really hard on is kind of building a really deep segment approach focused on where we can win and where we can hold that business. So where we have a differentiated offering in growth subsegments in things like medical, electronics, data centers, some key growth industrial applications, high-performance athletic wear, there's just a lot of really great work the team has been doing in these high-growth areas.

團隊另外也非常努力在建立一個很深的分眾（segment）策略，聚焦在我們能贏、以及能守住的業務領域。因此，在我們於醫療、電子、資料中心、一些關鍵的成長型工業應用、高性能運動服飾等成長子領域具備差異化產品的地方，團隊在這些高成長領域做了很多非常出色的工作。

And so positioning well there, building the pipeline so that we can hit that growth piece going forward. And look, growth is always hard. Growth is even harder when the world around you isn't growing broadly, but there are pockets of growth here, and that's really where that focus is. And so it's hard to say what mid-cycle will look like.

因此在這些領域做好定位、建立案源管線（pipeline），以便未來能達成成長這一塊。而且你看，成長一向不容易。當你周遭的世界並沒有廣泛成長時，成長就更難，但確實存在一些成長的口袋（pockets of growth），而我們的重點正是在那裡。所以很難說中周期會是什麼樣子。

We do not believe we're anywhere near mid-cycle demand in kind of our historical key end uses as well as some of these emerging growth areas. So as we work that, as we continue to build out what we think the addressable market space is there, then we'll provide that color in the future.

我們不認為目前的需求接近中周期，無論是在我們歷史上的主要終端用途，或是在這些新興成長領域。因此，當我們持續推進、並持續建立我們認為可觸及市場空間（addressable market space）的輪廓時，未來我們會再提供更多說明。

Great. Thanks very much for the color.

很好。非常感謝你的說明。

Matthew DeYoe, Bank of America.

Matthew DeYoe，美國銀行。

Morning. To touch a little bit on this, I think there's a desire amongst investors really sell side as well to just get a better handle on like what EM is now, given just the kind of asset aggregation and then closures and repolymerizations and closures. I get the core identity and thesis behind Fortify. But like at the end of the day, what is an achievable -- I don't know, I don't want to call it mid-cycle because it's not necessarily a pure commodity business. But what should the people or what should the market think about as like a reasonable expectation on profitability for this business under normal demand, normal kind of margin structure?

早安。延續這個話題，我認為投資人、甚至賣方也都希望更清楚掌握EM現在到底是什麼樣子，因為你們做了資產整併，然後又有關閉與再聚合（repolymerizations）以及關閉等動作。我理解Fortify背後的核心定位與論述。但說到底，什麼是可達成的——我不知道，我不想稱之為中周期，因為它不完全是純大宗商品的生意。但在正常需求、正常的利潤結構下，市場應該如何看待這項業務合理的獲利能力預期？

Yeah. Thanks, Matt. There's a lot to unpack there. What I would say is this is a business that is customer-focused with an eye towards building unique solutions. And it's a business that we've been working hard over the last 3.5 years to make sure that we're well positioned in the environment that we're now in globally with a lot of the competitive landscape that's changed to be able to win.

是的。謝謝你，Matt。這裡面有很多層面需要拆解。我會這麼說：這是一個以客戶為中心、著眼於打造獨特解決方案的業務。而且在過去3年半，我們一直努力確保在當前全球環境下、以及競爭格局發生諸多變化的情況下，我們仍能處於有利位置並取得勝利。

And it's a business that has unique capabilities. It has unique products and it has a unique ability to be able to get polymer solutions to do just about anything. And we've got a great model that I think ensures that the things that we're working on are going to drive the profitability on our worth the time and effort that it takes to work these solutions. And so I think what we've been able to do now is take a business that was performing on an EBITDA basis in the low teens now to one that's now consistently performing north of 20%. And the idea is to keep moving that upward.

而這項業務具備獨特能力。它有獨特的產品，也有一種獨特的能力，能讓聚合物解決方案幾乎做到任何事情。我們也有一個很好的模式，我認為能確保我們正在做的事情，會推動獲利，並且值得投入時間與精力去打造這些解決方案。因此，我認為我們現在已經把一個EBITDA表現原本在十幾%低段的業務，提升到如今能穩定維持在20%以上。而我們的想法是持續把它往上推。

Even if the world around us is not growing, we are focused on growth. And when you look at and kind of back into our assumptions for this year and you normalize out Micromax and the $40 million-or-so of EBITDA that comes out of that, this is a business that's going to grow year-over-year, even though its end markets are not growing. And so I think that's the way to think about it.

即使周遭世界沒有成長，我們仍聚焦於成長。而當你回推我們今年的假設，並把Micromax以及大約4,000萬美元左右因此減少的EBITDA正規化調整掉，這會是一個能夠年增的業務，即便它的終端市場並沒有成長。所以我認為應該用這種方式來理解。

It's a business that should be able to grow like we did in the past, going back 5, 10 years ago at 5% to 10% minimum on the EBITDA line and a business that's consistently going to find a way to be able to deal with whatever the global environment is.

這是一個應該能像過去那樣成長的業務——回到5年、10年前——在EBITDA這一行至少能有5%到10%的成長，而且是一個能持續找到方法去應對任何全球環境的業務。

And if we see a normalization of demand back to mid-cycle, and it's hard to say what that looks like because the world's changed quite a bit, then I think you also possibly get kind of a hockey stick lift on that at some point. So it's about being consistent. It's about being ready, and it's about continuing to take the hard steps to ensure that we have the cost structure in place to be able to win in a very competitive landscape.

如果我們看到需求回歸正常化、回到中周期——而這很難說會長什麼樣，因為世界已經改變很多——那我認為你也可能在某個時間點看到類似「曲棍球棒」式的上升。所以重點在於一致性。重點在於隨時準備好，並持續採取艱難但必要的步驟，確保我們具備能在高度競爭格局中取勝的成本結構。

Thank you for that. And if I could just ask on the acetic side, right, like I've never really trusted some of the consultants when it came to US acetic prices. But to your point, Asia is off peak. And that would lead me to believe like absent another leg higher, it remains maybe a bit curiously below Western markets.

謝謝你的說明。如果我可以再問一下醋酸（acetic）這邊，對吧，我一直不太信任某些顧問在美國醋酸價格上的看法。但如你所說，亞洲已經過了高峰。這會讓我覺得，如果沒有再往上走一段，它看起來就有點奇怪地仍低於西方市場。

So how does that sustain -- well, first off, is that right? Because, again, I don't have confidence in the US pricing, I get. But how does this sustain? And then how does weaker acid pricing not translate to weaker VAM? Or would that weaker acid back up into methanol? Like how possible is this just stays kind of relegated to one market? I would assume it's not, but I don't just want to hear you opine on it.

那這要怎麼維持——首先，這樣的理解對嗎？因為同樣地，我對美國的定價沒有信心，我理解。但這要怎麼維持下去？然後較弱的酸價怎麼不會傳導成較弱的VAM？或者較弱的酸價會回推影響到甲醇（methanol）嗎？這種情況只被限制在單一市場的可能性有多大？我猜應該不會，但我想聽聽你的看法，而不只是泛泛而談。

Yeah. Matt, as you know, I'm old, and I've been here at Celanese for 21 years. And when I joined Celanese, you are -- what we now call Acetyl Chain business was an acetic acid business. And now it is an Acetyl Chain business. And it's a business that doesn't rely on us just selling acetic acid in order to be successful. And back then, 20 years ago, over half of what we sold to an end customer in this business was acetic acid. That is very much not the case anymore.

是的。Matt，如你所知，我年紀大了，而且我在 Celanese 已經待了 21 年。我加入 Celanese 的時候，你們——我們現在所稱的乙醯鏈（Acetyl Chain）業務——當時其實是醋酸業務。而現在它已經是乙醯鏈業務了。而這是一項不需要仰賴我們僅僅銷售醋酸就能成功的業務。而在當時，20 年前，我們在這項業務中賣給終端客戶的產品，有一半以上是醋酸。現在的情況已經完全不是這樣了。

And so some of the dynamics that you talk about, we are very much less susceptible to those acetic acid movements. And yes, you are going to see acetic acid pricing in some regions roll through into the downstream, but it usually takes some time, both on the way up and on the way down. And so it's about managing that, and it's also then continuing to position for the pockets of growth that are in this business.

因此，你提到的一些動態，我們對醋酸價格波動的敏感度已經大幅降低。而且是的，你會看到某些地區的醋酸定價會逐步傳導到下游，但通常需要一些時間，無論是在上漲時或下跌時都是如此。所以重點在於如何管理這件事，同時也要持續布局這項業務中的成長機會所在的區塊。

And yes, they've been small, but there have been pockets of growth for us in the vinyl emulsions part of the business as well as in redispersible powders. And in the environment we're in now, we're finding ways at which to expand that. As I mentioned earlier, with some of the switching that customers want to do away from oil-based systems, this is giving us a nice advantage and the opportunity is now for us to go get that business, get it contracted and extend it into next year and beyond.

是的，雖然規模不大，但我們在業務中的乙烯基乳液（vinyl emulsions）以及可再分散粉末（redispersible powders）也都有一些成長的區塊。而在我們目前所處的環境下，我們正在尋找擴大這些成長的方法。如我先前提到的，隨著部分客戶希望從油性系統轉換出去，這讓我們取得不錯的優勢；而現在的機會就是我們去拿下這些業務、把它簽成合約，並延伸到明年及更長遠。

Got it. Thanks, Scott.

了解。謝謝，Scott。

John Roberts, Mizuho.

John Roberts，瑞穗（Mizuho）。

Thank you. This is (inaudible) for John. Good morning, everyone. My quick one, Scott. So in this inflationary environment, like how concerned are you about demand disruption in the later parts of the year? And related to that, are you seeing any signs of prebuying by customers that trying to get ahead of price increases that they're seeing coming?

謝謝。我是代替 John 的（聽不清）。各位早安。我有個簡短問題，Scott。在這種通膨環境下，你對今年後段需求受到干擾有多擔心？以及相關地，你是否看到客戶為了搶在他們看到的漲價之前而提前採購（prebuying）的跡象？

Yeah. Thanks for the question. Yeah, look, it's something that we're very much concerned about, and we're watching very closely. And it factors into the scenarios that we put out for the second half. And there's no doubt that's something that we are looking at. And we put it in our prepared comments that particularly in Engineered Materials, that we may be seeing a front-loading of some of that volume.

是的。謝謝你的問題。是的，你看，這確實是我們非常關切、而且正在非常密切觀察的事情。這也納入我們對下半年所提出的情境分析之中。毫無疑問，這是我們正在關注的重點。而我們在事先準備的發言中也提到，特別是在工程材料（Engineered Materials）方面，我們可能看到部分需求量有提前拉貨（front-loading）的情況。

And so that certainly factors into the guide that we made for the second half. I don't think we're seeing much of that in acetyls, to be honest with you. I mean the products that we have there largely are liquid bulk chemicals. They have some element of shelf life as well as storage limitations around the world. So I don't think it's much of a factor there, but it's certainly something that we're cognizant of on the Engineered Materials side of the house.

因此，這當然也反映在我們對下半年的指引之中。老實說，我不認為我們在乙醯類（acetyls）看到太多這種情況。我的意思是，我們那邊的產品多半是液態散裝化學品。它們有一定的保存期限，同時在全球各地也有儲存限制。所以我不認為那邊會是很大的因素，但在工程材料這一塊，我們確實有留意到並保持警覺。

Okay, perfect. That's all I have, thank you.

好的，太好了。我就這些，謝謝。

Daryl, we'll make the next question our last one, please.

Daryl，我們請把下一個問題作為最後一題，謝謝。

Josh Spector, UBS.

Josh Spector，瑞銀（UBS）。

Hi, good morning, it's Chris Perrella on for Josh. Can you size the POM turnaround impact in the second quarter there? I might have missed that earlier. And is the later restart dependent on the ability to get speed out of benzene? Or can you make the economics work buying methanol to feed the plant there? And I guess the corollary is, are you seeing raw material sourcing issues, particularly in Asia at this point?

嗨，早安，我是代替 Josh 的 Chris Perrella。你能說明一下第二季 POM 停車檢修（turnaround）的影響規模嗎？我可能先前漏聽了。另外，較晚的重啟是否取決於能否從苯（benzene）端取得產能提升？或者你們也能透過外購甲醇（methanol）作為該廠原料，讓經濟性成立？以及延伸來說，目前你們是否看到原料採購方面的問題，特別是在亞洲？

Yeah, Chris, let me start, and I'll let Chuck fill in the details. Let me hit the second part of your question first. No, we are -- we have already moved and we are moving methanol from our plant in the United States over to Europe. So our POM unit in Europe either uses sourced methanol from the market or uses our own cost-based US natural gas-based material.

是的，Chris，我先回答，然後讓 Chuck 補充細節。我先回答你問題的第二部分。不，我們已經採取行動，而且正在把甲醇從我們在美國的工廠運到歐洲。因此，我們在歐洲的 POM 裝置要嘛使用市場採購的甲醇，要嘛使用我們自有、以美國天然氣為基礎成本的原料。

Yes. Let me talk about kind of walk Q1 to Q2, both the turnaround and some of the other inventory. So in Q1, we built POM inventory, hit the income statement, $25 million benefit in Q1. Now in Q2, we're going to draw that POM inventory down, but we will build some nylon for the transitions that we've talked about. Expect a net $10 million absorption hit to the income statement in Q2, plus about $15 million of turnaround expense. As you know, from the guide, we do expect to offset the majority of that $50 million sequential headwind through the volume improvement and pricing actions we've talked about.

是的。我來談一下從第一季到第二季的走勢，包括停車檢修以及其他一些庫存因素。所以在第一季，我們建立了 POM 庫存，反映在損益表上，第一季帶來 2,500 萬美元的效益。而在第二季，我們會把這些 POM 庫存拉下來，但我們會為了我們談到的轉換而建立一些尼龍（nylon）庫存。預期第二季損益表會有淨額 1,000 萬美元的吸收（absorption）不利影響，再加上約 1,500 萬美元的停車檢修費用。如你所知，從我們的指引來看，我們確實預期能透過我們談到的出貨量改善與定價措施，抵消這 5,000 萬美元環比逆風中的大部分。

Perfect. Thank you.

很好。謝謝。

Well, thank you, everyone. We like to thank you for listening in today. And as always, we're available after the call for any follow-up questions. Daryl, please go ahead and close out the call.

好的，謝謝各位。我們也感謝大家今天收聽。一如往常，會後如有任何後續問題，我們都可以再聯繫。Daryl，請你接著結束電話會議。

Ladies and gentlemen, thank you so much for your participation. This does conclude today's teleconference and webcast. Please disconnect your lines at this time, and have a wonderful day.

各位女士先生，非常感謝各位的參與。今天的電話會議與網路直播到此結束。請各位現在掛斷電話線，祝各位有美好的一天。