益華電腦 (CDNS) 2023 Q1 法說會逐字稿

內容摘要

Cadence Design Systems 公佈了強勁的 2023 年第一季度業績,實現了兩位數的增長,並上調了今年的財務展望。該公司的 Generative AI 設計工具正在革新芯片和系統開發,並加深了與聯發科、航空航天和國防系統公司、台積電和微軟的合作。

Cadence 對其在宏觀經濟波動中的彈性充滿信心,因為其主要業務和多元化的地域和終端市場存在。該公司還將 AI 嵌入到其產品中,併計劃使其在整個產品組合中普及。

Cadence 預計今年所有業務都將強勁增長,但要等到年中才能評估硬件管道。

完整原文

使用警語:中文譯文來源為 Google 翻譯,僅供參考,實際內容請以英文原文為主

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Good afternoon. My name is Emma, and I will be your conference operator today. At this time, I would like to welcome everyone to the Cadence First Quarter 2023 Earnings Conference Call.

    下午好。我叫艾瑪,今天我將擔任你們的會議接線員。在這個時候,我想歡迎大家參加 Cadence 2023 年第一季度收益電話會議。

  • (Operator Instructions)

    (操作員說明)

  • Thank you. I will now turn the call over to Richard Gu, Vice President of Investor Relations for Cadence. Please go ahead.

    謝謝。我現在將把電話轉給 Cadence 投資者關係副總裁 Richard Gu。請繼續。

  • Richard Gu - VP of IR

    Richard Gu - VP of IR

  • Thank you, operator. I would like to welcome everyone to our First Quarter of 2023 Earnings Conference Call. I'm joined today by Anirudh Devgan, President and Chief Executive Officer; and John Wall, Senior Vice President and Chief Financial Officer. The webcast of this call and a copy of today's prepared remarks will be available on our website, cadence.com.

    謝謝你,運營商。歡迎大家參加我們的 2023 年第一季度收益電話會議。今天,總裁兼首席執行官 Anirudh Devgan 加入了我的行列;高級副總裁兼首席財務官 John Wall。本次電話會議的網絡直播和今天準備好的評論副本將在我們的網站 cadence.com 上提供。

  • Today's discussion will contain forward-looking statements, including our outlook on future business and operating results. Due to risks and uncertainties, actual results may differ materially from those projected or implied in today's discussion. For information on factors that could cause actual results to differ, please refer to our SEC filings, including our most recent Forms 10-K and 10-Q in today's earnings release.

    今天的討論將包含前瞻性陳述,包括我們對未來業務和經營業績的展望。由於存在風險和不確定性,實際結果可能與今天討論中預測或暗示的結果存在重大差異。有關可能導致實際結果不同的因素的信息,請參閱我們向美國證券交易委員會提交的文件,包括我們今天發布的收益報告中的最新 10-K 和 10-Q 表格。

  • All forward-looking statements during this call are based on estimates and information available to us as of today, and we disclaim any obligation to update them.

    本次電話會議期間的所有前瞻性陳述均基於截至今天我們可獲得的估計和信息,我們不承擔更新這些陳述的任何義務。

  • In addition, we will present certain non-GAAP measures, which should not be considered in isolation from or as a substitute for GAAP results. Reconciliation of GAAP to non-GAAP measures are included in today's earnings release.

    此外,我們將介紹某些非 GAAP 指標,不應將其與 GAAP 結果分開考慮或作為其替代品。 GAAP 與非 GAAP 措施的對賬包含在今天的收益發布中。

  • (Operator Instructions)

    (操作員說明)

  • Now I'll turn the call over to Anirudh.

    現在我將把電話轉給 Anirudh。

  • Anirudh Devgan - CEO, President & Director

    Anirudh Devgan - CEO, President & Director

  • Thank you, Richard. Good afternoon, everyone, and thank you for joining us today. I'm pleased to report that Cadence delivered strong results for the first quarter of 2023 with ongoing robust demand for essential and innovative solutions, driving solid double-digit growth. In view of the strong start to the year, and the continuing momentum of our business, we are raising our financial outlook for the year. John will provide more details in a moment.

    謝謝你,理查德。大家下午好,感謝您今天加入我們。我很高興地報告,Cadence 在 2023 年第一季度取得了強勁的業績,對基本和創新解決方案的需求持續強勁,推動了穩健的兩位數增長。鑑於今年的強勁開局以及我們業務的持續發展勢頭,我們上調了今年的財務展望。約翰稍後會提供更多細節。

  • Generative AI design tools are revolutionizing chip and system development by delivering unprecedented optimization and productivity benefits. Customers have already been benefiting from our groundbreaking Generative AI solutions in the digital verification and system areas, and with the recent introductions of Virtuoso Studio and Allegro X AI, we now have an unmatched chip to package, to board, to systems Generative AI portfolio.

    生成式 AI 設計工具通過提供前所未有的優化和生產力優勢,正在徹底改變芯片和系統開發。客戶已經從我們在數字驗證和系統領域的突破性生成 AI 解決方案中受益,並且隨著最近推出的 Virtuoso Studio 和 Allegro X AI,我們現在擁有無與倫比的芯片封裝、板載和系統生成 AI 產品組合。

  • Leveraging 30 years of industry leadership, Virtuoso Studio accelerates heterogeneous System Design and through AI-powered layout automation and optimization, provides an average 3x productivity boost for designs in the notably complex analog domain.

    憑藉 30 年的行業領先地位,Virtuoso Studio 加速了異構系統設計,並通過 AI 支持的佈局自動化和優化,為特別複雜的模擬領域中的設計提供了平均 3 倍的生產力提升。

  • Several customers, including MediaTek, Renesas, Analog Devices and TSMC provided testimonials for the launch. Allegro X AI technology utilize the latest innovations in Generative AI to accelerate PCB design with more than a 10x reduction in turnaround time.

    包括聯發科、瑞薩電子、Analog Devices 和台積電在內的多家客戶都為此次發布提供了推薦。 Allegro X AI 技術利用 Generative AI 的最新創新來加速 PCB 設計,並將周轉時間縮短 10 倍以上。

  • And at a recent launch, it was endorsed by Schneider Electric and Kioxia. All of these powerful engines are fueled by our unique differentiated big data analytics JedAI platform that minimize massive amount of design and verification data to carry forward learnings and insights to future designs. Our rapidly proliferative Generative AI solutions are enabling customers to reap significant power performance and area benefits. Through better optimized designs, while greatly improving engineering productivity and accelerating design closure.

    在最近的一次發布中,它得到了施耐德電氣和鎧俠的認可。所有這些強大的引擎都由我們獨特的差異化大數據分析 JedAI 平台提供動力,該平台最大限度地減少了大量的設計和驗證數據,以將學習和見解應用於未來的設計。我們快速增長的 Generative AI 解決方案使客戶能夠獲得顯著的功率性能和麵積優勢。通過更好的優化設計,同時大大提高工程生產力並加速設計收斂。

  • Along with AI, other generational trends such as hyperscale computing, 5G and the digital transformation across multiple verticals continue to propel thriving design activity across semi and system companies. Creating rich market opportunities for differentiated end-to-end EDA, IP and system solutions. I'm pleased with the momentum in our core EDA business as well as our continued expansion into systems area that provides us both revenue and margin opportunities.

    與 AI 一起,超大規模計算、5G 和跨多個垂直領域的數字化轉型等其他世代趨勢繼續推動半導體和系統公司蓬勃發展的設計活動。為差異化的端到端 EDA、IP 和系統解決方案創造豐富的市場機會。我對我們核心 EDA 業務的發展勢頭以及我們向系統領域的持續擴張感到高興,這為我們提供了收入和利潤機會。

  • Now let's talk about our key highlights for Q1. In Q1, we deepened our collaboration with MediaTek, which includes a broad base of our digital, analog, verification and System Design & Analysis solutions. We significantly expanded our collaboration with the marquee aerospace and defense systems company that included the proliferation of our digital full flow, custom, verification products as well as RF and system analysis solutions.

    現在讓我們談談我們第一季度的主要亮點。在第一季度,我們加深了與聯發科的合作,其中包括廣泛的數字、模擬、驗證和系統設計與分析解決方案。我們顯著擴大了與知名航空航天和國防系統公司的合作,包括我們數字全流程、定制、驗證產品以及 RF 和系統分析解決方案的擴散。

  • And Cadence expanded its collaboration with TSMC and Microsoft as we leverage our Pegasus Verification system and cloud bus platform, to accelerate giga scale physical verification in the cloud. Ever increasing complexities in system verification and software bring-up continue to propel our verification business to a 31% year-over-year revenue growth.

    Cadence 擴大了與台積電和微軟的合作,利用我們的 Pegasus 驗證系統和云總線平台,加速雲端的千兆級物理驗證。系統驗證和軟件啟動的複雜性不斷增加,繼續推動我們的驗證業務收入同比增長 31%。

  • Hardware-based verification has become a must-have part of the customer's design flow. And on the heels of a record year, our Palladium Z2 and Protium X2 hardware platforms delivered a record Q1 as market demand remains strong for these best-in-class solutions. With 14 new customers and nearly 30 repeat customers, more than 50% of the orders during the quarter included both platforms.

    基於硬件的驗證已成為客戶設計流程中必不可少的一部分。在創紀錄的一年之後,我們的 Palladium Z2 和 Protium X2 硬件平台交付了創紀錄的第一季度,因為市場對這些一流解決方案的需求依然強勁。擁有 14 個新客戶和近 30 個回頭客,本季度超過 50% 的訂單包括這兩個平台。

  • Demand for hardware was broad-based with particular strength seen in the aerospace and defense and automotive segments. Our new Verisium platform leverages big data and AI to optimize verification workloads, boost coverage and accelerate root cause analysis of bugs. Customers are realizing significant efficiency gains with Renesas seeing up to a 6x improvement in debug productivity, shortening the time to market for its our core design.

    對硬件的需求基礎廣泛,航空航天、國防和汽車領域尤為強勁。我們新的 Verisium 平台利用大數據和 AI 來優化驗證工作負載,提高覆蓋率並加速錯誤的根本原因分析。瑞薩電子的調試效率提高了 6 倍,從而縮短了其核心設計的上市時間,客戶實現了顯著的效率提升。

  • Our Digital IC business had another solid quarter with our digital full flow continuing to drive growth, especially at the most advanced nodes at market-shaping customers. Our innovative Cadence Cerebrus solution provides customers an AI-driven cockpit by applying Generative AI to explore the entire design space and intelligently optimizing the digital full flow in a fully automated manner.

    我們的數字 IC 業務又迎來了一個穩定的季度,我們的數字全流程繼續推動增長,尤其是在市場塑造客戶的最先進節點。我們創新的 Cadence Cerebrus 解決方案通過應用生成 AI 探索整個設計空間並以全自動方式智能優化數字全流程,為客戶提供 AI 驅動的駕駛艙。

  • Cadence Cerebrus now has well over 180 tape-outs. And at last week's CadenceLIVE event, several leading customers, including TI, Renesas, Broadcom, Canon and ARM describe the remarkable benefits they are realized with Cadence Cerebrus.

    Cadence Cerebrus 現在有超過 180 個流片。在上週的 CadenceLIVE 活動中,包括 TI、Renesas、Broadcom、Canon 和 ARM 在內的幾家主要客戶描述了他們通過 Cadence Cerebrus 實現的顯著優勢。

  • Our System Design & Analysis business, which is driving our expansion beyond EDA, continued its strong momentum in Q1, delivering 27% year-over-year revenue growth. Accelerating hyper convergence between system and silicon domains requires seamlessly integrated chip implementation, System Design & Analysis solutions. Our Integrity 3D-IC Platform exemplifies that by natively integrating all the required engines to provide a comprehensive multi chiplet and advanced packaging flow.

    我們的系統設計和分析業務正在推動我們向 EDA 以外的領域擴張,該業務在第一季度繼續保持強勁勢頭,實現了 27% 的同比收入增長。加速系統和矽域之間的超融合需要無縫集成的芯片實施、系統設計和分析解決方案。我們的 Integrity 3D-IC 平台通過本地集成所有必需的引擎來提供全面的多小芯片和高級封裝流程,從而證明了這一點。

  • Additionally, the growing complexity of designs as well as accelerating of virtual prototype trends require sophisticated multi-physics solutions that not just provide higher capacity and performance, but also result in more optimized designs. Our system analysis portfolio couples our expertise in physics-based modeling with AI-driven optimization and are delivering superior results to customers across multiple end markets. We are pleased with the new wins and growing repeat orders for organic Clarity and Celsius products as well as our CFD technology.

    此外,設計的複雜性不斷增加以及虛擬原型趨勢的加速發展需要復雜的多物理場解決方案,這些解決方案不僅可以提供更高的容量和性能,還可以實現更優化的設計。我們的系統分析產品組合將我們在基於物理的建模方面的專業知識與人工智能驅動的優化相結合,並為多個終端市場的客戶提供卓越的結果。我們對有機 Clarity 和 Celsius 產品以及我們的 CFD 技術的新勝利和不斷增長的重複訂單感到滿意。

  • During NVIDIA's GTC 2023, NVIDIA's CEO, Jensen Huang talked about our joint partnership and the throughput and energy efficiency benefits offered by Cadence's CFD offerings running on NVIDIA's accelerated computing platform. And last week, we announced a multiyear technology partnership with the San Francisco 49ers that's focused on sustainability and based on our future facility digital twin technology.

    在 NVIDIA 的 GTC 2023 期間,NVIDIA 首席執行官黃仁勳談到了我們的合作夥伴關係以及運行在 NVIDIA 加速計算平台上的 Cadence CFD 產品所帶來的吞吐量和能效優勢。上週,我們宣布與舊金山 49 人隊建立多年技術合作夥伴關係,重點關注可持續性並基於我們未來設施的數字孿生技術。

  • In summary, I'm pleased with our Q1 results. Exploring chip and System Design complexity will drive a significant non-linear growth in workload requirements, opening up a massive opportunity for computational software to help realize these innovative products by investing more, the R&D spend in automation.

    總之,我對我們第一季度的結果感到滿意。探索芯片和系統設計的複雜性將推動工作負載需求的顯著非線性增長,為計算軟件開闢了一個巨大的機會,通過在自動化方面投入更多研發支出來幫助實現這些創新產品。

  • In addition to our strong business results, I'm proud of our high-performance inclusive culture and thrilled that we have been selected yet again by Fortune and Great Place to Work as one of the 2023, 100 best companies to work for, for the ninth consecutive year.

    除了我們強勁的業務成果外,我為我們的高性能包容文化感到自豪,並且很高興我們再次被《財富》雜誌和 Great Place to Work 選為 2023 年 100 家最適合工作的公司之一,連續第九年。

  • Now I will turn it over to John to provide more details on the Q1 results and our updated 2023 outlook.

    現在我將把它交給約翰,提供有關第一季度結果和我們更新的 2023 年展望的更多細節。

  • John M. Wall - Senior VP & CFO

    John M. Wall - Senior VP & CFO

  • Thanks, Anirudh, and good afternoon, everyone. I'm pleased to report that we exceeded our key financial and operating metrics for the first quarter of 2023. As planned, we increased our hardware production capacity to improve delivery lead times, resulting from strong demand for our hardware solutions. Here are some of the financial highlights from the first quarter, starting with the P&L.

    謝謝,Anirudh,大家下午好。我很高興地報告,我們超過了 2023 年第一季度的關鍵財務和運營指標。由於對我們硬件解決方案的強勁需求,我們按計劃提高了硬件生產能力以縮短交貨時間。以下是第一季度的一些財務亮點,首先是損益表。

  • Total revenue was $1.022 billion. GAAP operating margin was 31.6% and non-GAAP operating margin was 42.1%. GAAP EPS was $0.89 and non-GAAP EPS was $1.29.

    總收入為 10.22 億美元。 GAAP 營業利潤率為 31.6%,非 GAAP 營業利潤率為 42.1%。 GAAP 每股收益為 0.89 美元,非 GAAP 每股收益為 1.29 美元。

  • Next, turning to the balance sheet and cash flow. Cash balance at quarter end was $917 million. Operating cash flow was $267 million, and we repurchased $125 million worth of Cadence shares. Before I provide our outlook for Q2 and the year, I'd like to highlight that it contains our usual assumption that the export control regulations, that exist today, remain substantially similar for the remainder of the year. Also for the year, we continue to expect our revenue mix to be consistent with the 15% upfront and 85% recurring revenue mix that we experienced in 2022.

    接下來,轉向資產負債表和現金流量。季度末的現金餘額為 9.17 億美元。運營現金流為 2.67 億美元,我們回購了價值 1.25 億美元的 Cadence 股票。在我提供我們對第二季度和今年的展望之前,我想強調一下,它包含我們通常的假設,即今天存在的出口管制法規在今年餘下時間保持基本相似。同樣在今年,我們繼續預計我們的收入組合將與我們在 2022 年經歷的 15% 的預付收入和 85% 的經常性收入組合保持一致。

  • With that in mind, our updated outlook for fiscal 2023 is: revenue in the range of $4.03 billion to $4.07 billion; GAAP operating margin in the range of 30% to 31%; non-GAAP operating margin in the range of 41% to 42%; GAAP EPS in the range of $3.26 to $3.34; non-GAAP EPS in the range of $4.96 to $5.04; operating cash flow in the range of $1.3 billion to $1.4 billion. And we expect to use approximately 50% of our free cash flow to repurchase Cadence shares.

    考慮到這一點,我們對 2023 財年的最新展望是:收入在 40.3 億美元至 40.7 億美元之間; GAAP 營業利潤率在 30% 至 31% 之間;非美國通用會計準則營業利潤率在 41% 至 42% 之間; GAAP 每股收益在 3.26 美元至 3.34 美元之間;非 GAAP 每股收益在 4.96 美元至 5.04 美元之間;運營現金流在 13 億美元至 14 億美元之間。我們預計將使用大約 50% 的自由現金流來回購 Cadence 的股票。

  • In Q2 we expect revenue in the range of $960 million to $980 million, GAAP operating margin in the range of 29% to 30%. Non-GAAP operating margin in the range of 40% to 41%. GAAP EPS in the range of $0.73 to $0.77. Non-GAAP EPS in the range of $1.15 to $1.19 and we expect to repurchase approximately $125 million worth of Cadence shares.

    我們預計第二季度收入在 9.6 億美元至 9.8 億美元之間,GAAP 營業利潤率在 29% 至 30% 之間。非 GAAP 營業利潤率在 40% 至 41% 之間。 GAAP 每股收益在 0.73 美元至 0.77 美元之間。非 GAAP 每股收益在 1.15 美元至 1.19 美元之間,我們預計將回購價值約 1.25 億美元的 Cadence 股票。

  • As usual, we published a CFO commentary document on our Investor Relations website, which includes our outlook for additional items as well as further analysis and GAAP to non-GAAP reconciliations.

    像往常一樣,我們在我們的投資者關係網站上發布了一份首席財務官評論文件,其中包括我們對其他項目的展望以及進一步的分析和 GAAP 與非 GAAP 對賬。

  • In conclusion, we had a good start to the year. With the increase in our outlook at the midpoint, we now expect revenue growth for the year at approximately 14%. As always, I'd like to close by thanking our customers, partners and our employees for their continued support. And with that, operator, we will now take questions.

    總而言之,我們今年開局不錯。隨著我們中點前景的增加,我們現在預計今年的收入增長約為 14%。一如既往,我想在結束時感謝我們的客戶、合作夥伴和我們的員工一直以來的支持。那麼,接線員,我們現在開始提問。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • (Operator Instructions)

    (操作員說明)

  • Your first question comes from the line of Gary Mobley with Wells Fargo.

    你的第一個問題來自富國銀行的 Gary Mobley。

  • Gary Wade Mobley - Senior Analyst

    Gary Wade Mobley - Senior Analyst

  • I wanted to ask about an observation that is your upfront revenue, your functional verification revenue and your China-related revenue were all very strong in the first quarter. So I'm curious to know if all those were related and relate specifically to maybe some pull forward of some customer deliveries or some customer orders? Or was it more so a function of having the ability to turn the hardware verification business around a little bit quicker than expected?

    我想問一個觀察,第一季度你們的前期收入、功能驗證收入和中國相關收入都非常強勁。所以我很想知道所有這些是否相關,並且具體與某些客戶交付或某些客戶訂單的一些提前有關?或者它更像是一種能夠比預期更快地扭轉硬件驗證業務的功能?

  • John M. Wall - Senior VP & CFO

    John M. Wall - Senior VP & CFO

  • Yes, Gary, great question. And yes, they're all related. We were very pleased to be able to ramp up the production of our hardware because we had such strong demand for our hardware solutions in the functional verification business. We successfully ramped that up in Q1, and the subsequent upfront revenue benefited functional verification, it benefited China. I think China is up to 17% of our revenue for Q1. That's mainly hardware driven.

    是的,加里,好問題。是的,它們都是相關的。我們很高興能夠提高我們硬件的產量,因為我們在功能驗證業務中對我們的硬件解決方案有如此強烈的需求。我們在第一季度成功地提高了這一點,隨後的前期收入有利於功能驗證,這使中國受益。我認為中國占我們第一季度收入的 17%。這主要是硬件驅動的。

  • And again, we wanted to reiterate the fact that last year, we did -- our recurring revenue mix was 85% of our total revenue, 15% upfront. We still expect that to be the case for this year. But in Q1, because of the increased hardware deliveries, the mix was 80% recurring and 20% upfront for the quarter. We wouldn't expect that to repeat for the rest of the year.

    再一次,我們想重申一個事實,即去年我們做到了——我們的經常性收入組合佔總收入的 85%,預付 15%。我們仍然預計今年會出現這種情況。但在第一季度,由於硬件交付量增加,該季度的混合比例為 80% 的經常性和 20% 的預付。我們不希望在今年餘下的時間裡重複這種情況。

  • Gary Wade Mobley - Senior Analyst

    Gary Wade Mobley - Senior Analyst

  • Okay. And related to that, John, if I'm not mistaken, 2.5 months ago when you gave the initial fiscal year '23 revenue guide, you were expecting maybe the hardware-related business to tail off into the second half of the year. Is that still the expectation? Or are you still running near record backlog for that hardware verification business?

    好的。與此相關的是,約翰,如果我沒記錯的話,2.5 個月前,當你給出 23 財年的初始收入指南時,你預計與硬件相關的業務可能會在下半年結束。這還是期待嗎?或者您是否仍在為該硬件驗證業務處理接近創紀錄的積壓工作?

  • John M. Wall - Senior VP & CFO

    John M. Wall - Senior VP & CFO

  • Great question, again, Gary. Yes, we were very pleased with hardware bookings again in Q1. The -- we didn't take up the second half of the year. I want to wait until this summer to have a look at the pipeline because hardware is very much a pipeline business. However, we did take up the year by $20 million.

    好問題,加里。是的,我們對第一季度的硬件預訂再次感到非常滿意。 - 我們沒有佔用下半年的時間。我想等到今年夏天再看看流水線,因為硬件在很大程度上是一種流水線業務。然而,我們確實在這一年佔用了 2000 萬美元。

  • And a part of that is the beat in Q1, which was some hardware. But the rest of that was strength on the software side, probably predominantly in the System Design Analysis space, and we raised that for the year, and that's kind of recurring throughout the year.

    其中一部分是第一季度的節拍,這是一些硬件。但其餘部分是軟件方面的優勢,可能主要是在系統設計分析領域,我們在這一年提出了這一點,而且這種情況在全年都會反復出現。

  • But we haven't taken up the second half of the year for hardware. I'd like to wait until the middle of the year for that. We still expect -- I mean, we expect all the businesses to grow strongly this year.

    但是我們還沒有在硬件方面佔用下半年時間。我想等到年中。我們仍然期望 - 我的意思是,我們預計今年所有業務都會強勁增長。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Your next question comes from the line of Jay Vleeschhouwer with Griffin Securities.

    你的下一個問題來自 Griffin Securities 的 Jay Vleeschhouwer。

  • Jay Vleeschhouwer - MD of Software Research

    Jay Vleeschhouwer - MD of Software Research

  • John, for you, first, on RPO, according to the 10-Q, it looks like you had about a $400 million sequential decline from the end of -- from Q4 and also a sequential decline in the next 12-month expected revenue from RPO. And I know that can move around, of course, with hardware and contract timing and so forth. But maybe just talk about the magnitude of that sequential decline in RPO and perhaps any expectations for that for the remainder of the year? And then my follow-up.

    約翰,對你來說,首先,根據 10-Q,在 RPO 方面,看起來你從第四季度末開始連續下降約 4 億美元,而且未來 12 個月的預期收入也連續下降RPO。我知道這當然可以隨著硬件和合同時間等因素而改變。但也許只是談談 RPO 連續下降的幅度,以及對今年剩餘時間的任何預期?然後是我的後續行動。

  • John M. Wall - Senior VP & CFO

    John M. Wall - Senior VP & CFO

  • Yes. Sure, Jay. The second half of this year is very heavily weighted for bookings for the total year. We're very light in the first half of the year for software renewals. The second half of the year, Q3 and Q4 are very strong for software renewals this year. Unlike last year, last year, I think the first half was -- we had a number of big software renewals in the first half. We don't have that this year.

    是的。當然,傑伊。今年下半年全年的預訂量非常大。我們在上半年的軟件更新方面非常輕鬆。今年下半年,第三季度和第四季度的軟件更新非常強勁。與去年不同,去年,我認為上半年是——我們在上半年進行了許多大型軟件更新。我們今年沒有。

  • And when you look at the second half, of course, I mean, any big renewal you have in Q3. At the end of last year, we had like 9 months since the RPO for that, and now it's only 6 months at the end of this quarter. So it's really just a function of renewal timing and the fact that the first half of the year is light for renewal timing.

    當你看下半場時,當然,我的意思是,你在第三季度的任何重大更新。去年年底,自 RPO 以來我們有 9 個月的時間,而現在本季度末只有 6 個月。所以這實際上只是續訂時間的一個函數,而且今年上半年的續訂時間很輕。

  • I'd remind you as well that in terms of renewal timing, the Q1 and Q2 are the 2 quarters that kind of are like 3 years after the breakout of the pandemic back in 2020. So those were light for us anyway in terms of light renewals.

    我還要提醒您,就續訂時間而言,第一季度和第二季度是 2020 年大流行病爆發 3 年後的 2 個季度。因此,就光而言,這對我們來說還是很輕鬆的續訂。

  • So the second half of the year, much more heavily weighted towards the second half of the year for software renewals, and you see that impact on the ARPO and cRPO. To a lesser extent, there was some drop-off on hardware because we deliver so much hardware in Q1, but it's mainly the timing of renewals.

    因此,今年下半年,下半年軟件更新的權重更大,您會看到這對 ARPO 和 cRPO 的影響。在較小程度上,硬件有所下降,因為我們在第一季度交付了太多硬件,但這主要是更新的時間。

  • Jay Vleeschhouwer - MD of Software Research

    Jay Vleeschhouwer - MD of Software Research

  • Okay. Understood. Anirudh for you on AI, the product launches in the last couple of weeks, including last week, and the customer presentation was certainly very interesting. I just wanted to ask you about management comment at the conference last week that you were making "Massive investments in AI" and what was interesting about that is just some of the ad-hoc conversations at the conference suggested that the AI development teams are relatively small. Perhaps a few dozen per product or per group, but not necessarily very large percentage of your R&D headcount. So when you say massive investments in what other ways, perhaps, do you mean that?

    好的。明白了。 Anirudh 為您介紹 AI,該產品在過去幾週推出,包括上週,客戶介紹當然非常有趣。我只是想問你關於上週會議上管理層的評論,你正在“對人工智能進行大量投資”,有趣的是會議上的一些臨時對話表明人工智能開發團隊相對小的。每個產品或每個組可能有幾十個,但不一定佔研發人員的很大比例。因此,當您說以其他什麼方式進行大規模投資時,您的意思是?

  • Anirudh Devgan - CEO, President & Director

    Anirudh Devgan - CEO, President & Director

  • Yes, Jay, good question. So I think first thing I would like to say, just to add on to what John was saying earlier. I mean, yes, there could be some fluctuations in renewal timing, but the great thing about our business is we are not sensitive to that, right? I mean it's mostly ratable business. And -- but what I'm pleased to see is that both in system and semi companies that design activity is very strong, okay? Because a lot of these products are -- I mean, we are resilient to the overall kind of macro environment.

    是的,傑伊,問得好。所以我想我想說的第一件事就是補充 John 之前所說的話。我的意思是,是的,續訂時間可能會有一些波動,但我們業務的優點在於我們對此並不敏感,對吧?我的意思是它主要是可評價的業務。而且——但我很高興看到,在系統公司和半導體公司中,設計活動都非常強大,好嗎?因為很多這些產品——我的意思是,我們對整體宏觀環境有彈性。

  • So resilient, because our products are critical and essential and then we are mostly ratable business. And then we are very diversified, as you know, both geographically and end markets.

    如此有彈性,因為我們的產品至關重要且必不可少,而且我們主要是可評價的業務。然後我們非常多元化,如您所知,無論是在地理上還是在終端市場上。

  • Now in terms of AI, I mean, this is we're having -- of course, having a significant effect in terms of amount of automation we can provide and the increased automation we can provide. So we are embedding that as we mentioned in our CadenceLIVE Conference last year in all products. And it will be pervasive throughout the product line. So I'm actually pretty pleased to see not only our base kind of JedAI platform, which is, you need a data analytics platform to really do AI in intelligent comprehensive way, but also there are 5 big platforms on top of JedAI. So from chip to package to board to systems. So we always had Cerebrus, which is doing phenomenal with more than 180 tape-outs, Verisium for verification.

    現在就人工智能而言,我的意思是,這就是我們擁有的——當然,在我們可以提供的自動化數量和我們可以提供的更高自動化方面產生了重大影響。因此,正如我們在去年的 CadenceLIVE 大會上提到的那樣,我們將其嵌入到所有產品中。它將遍及整個產品線。所以我真的很高興不僅看到我們的基本類型 JedAI 平台,也就是說,你需要一個數據分析平台來真正以智能綜合的方式做 AI,而且在 JedAI 之上還有 5 個大平台。所以從芯片到封裝再到電路板再到系統。所以我們總是有 Cerebrus,它在超過 180 次的流片中做得非常出色,Verisium 用於驗證。

  • Now studio -- Virtuoso Studio for analog with layout migration and design centering using and then X AI for Allegro, PCB and packaging and Optimality for System Design & Analysis. So it's a very comprehensive portfolio. And amount of R&D investment just depends on different products. And sometimes we have it within the product, sometimes we have outside, but it will be pervasive through the product portfolio. And like I have mentioned before, our strength in computational software naturally allows our regular -- even regular R&D to do a lot of AI.

    現在是工作室——Virtuoso Studio,用於模擬佈局遷移和設計居中,然後是用於 Allegro、PCB 和封裝的 X AI,以及用於系統設計和分析的最優性。所以這是一個非常全面的產品組合。而研發投入的多少只是取決於不同的產品。有時我們在產品中有它,有時我們在產品之外,但它會貫穿整個產品組合。就像我之前提到的,我們在計算軟件方面的優勢自然讓我們的常規——甚至是常規研發能夠做很多人工智能。

  • We, of course, have AI-specific R&D, but our regular R&D, given the rich history of EDA and computational software, we can embed that in our products. So the real value is to really do it comprehensively and make a big difference in terms of productivity, in terms of automation, in terms of PPA benefits that we are delivering to the customers.

    當然,我們有專門針對人工智能的研發,但我們的常規研發,鑑於 EDA 和計算軟件的豐富歷史,我們可以將其嵌入到我們的產品中。因此,真正的價值在於真正全面地做到這一點,並在生產力、自動化以及我們為客戶提供的 PPA 收益方面產生重大影響。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Your next question comes from the line of Charles Shi with Needham & Company.

    你的下一個問題來自 Charles Shi 與 Needham & Company 的合作。

  • Yu Shi - Senior Analyst

    Yu Shi - Senior Analyst

  • So I really just want to go back to the second half EDA renewal, the expected strength. May I ask those expected renewals? Are they already in the backlog or not? Or are they not in the backlog, you expect to sign a renewal in the second half of the year? That's my first question.

    所以我真的只想回到下半年的 EDA 更新,預期的強度。請問那些預期的續約?他們是否已經在積壓中?或者他們沒有積壓,你預計下半年續簽?這是我的第一個問題。

  • John M. Wall - Senior VP & CFO

    John M. Wall - Senior VP & CFO

  • Yes. So Charles, yes, just for clarification. All of our renewals will be already be in backlog. But if there's -- let's say, you have a renewal that's coming up in September, you would have had 9 months of backlog left on that renewal at the end of Q4 last year. Now you have 6 months left in backlog. And then when you get to September, you'll have nothing left in backlog and then you'll have -- the renewal will come through.

    是的。查爾斯,是的,只是為了澄清一下。我們所有的續訂都已經積壓。但是,如果有 - 比方說,您將在 9 月進行續約,那麼在去年第四季度末,您將有 9 個月的續約積壓。現在您還有 6 個月的積壓工作。然後當你到了 9 月,你將沒有任何積壓,然後你就會有——續約將會完成。

  • Yu Shi - Senior Analyst

    Yu Shi - Senior Analyst

  • Okay. Okay. So those renewed contracts are not yet in your current backlog? And that's what you're saying?

    好的。好的。那麼那些續籤的合同還沒有在您當前的積壓工作中嗎?這就是你的意思?

  • John M. Wall - Senior VP & CFO

    John M. Wall - Senior VP & CFO

  • So the new ones will not be until we do them in the second half of the year. So I just wanted to clarify that, yes. So the remainder of the existing bookings will be in backlog, but that will reduce until we get to the actual renewal dates. And then on the renewal date, we'll have a new booking come through. And that will be added to the backlog.

    所以新的要等到我們下半年做的時候才會有。所以我只想澄清一下,是的。因此,現有預訂的其餘部分將積壓,但在我們到達實際續訂日期之前,這將會減少。然後在續訂日期,我們將進行新的預訂。這將被添加到積壓工作中。

  • Yu Shi - Senior Analyst

    Yu Shi - Senior Analyst

  • Got it. So I just want to really clear this up. I think another analyst that just asked about the implied booking seems to be down in Q1. And I think you did provide some color, but I want to ask from another perspective. I think in March 2021 quarter, if you still remember the details. That -- in that particular quarter, you had some similar relatively lower bookings back then.

    知道了。所以我只想真正解決這個問題。我認為剛剛詢問隱含預訂的另一位分析師在第一季度似乎有所下降。我認為你確實提供了一些顏色,但我想從另一個角度問。我想在 2021 年 3 月這個季度,如果你還記得細節的話。那 - 在那個特定的季度,你當時有一些類似的相對較低的預訂。

  • And now, in hindsight, it looks like it's -- it was just some one-off weakness in bookings and not meaning much in terms of the broader industry trend. Is that the same case this time? Or are you seeing some other more like a trend indicative of the trend going on in the industry today?

    現在,事後看來,這似乎只是預訂方面的一些一次性疲軟,對更廣泛的行業趨勢而言意義不大。這次也是一樣嗎?或者您是否看到其他一些更像是表明當今行業趨勢的趨勢?

  • John M. Wall - Senior VP & CFO

    John M. Wall - Senior VP & CFO

  • Thanks for the opportunity to clarify there, Charles. Certainly, I didn't see any weakness in bookings in Q1. Bookings in Q1 were stronger than we were actually expecting at the start of the quarter. What I was trying to convey was that we had very few software renewals that came up for renewal in Q1 and therefore, bookings were expected to be light. But the beauty of the recurring revenue model that we have is that the timing of those renewals is not especially important. That it's the annual value of those renewals and that we continue to see growth in the annual value of those bookings, and we see growth across all of the businesses.

    查爾斯,感謝你給我澄清的機會。當然,我沒有看到第一季度的預訂有任何疲軟。第一季度的預訂量比我們在本季度初的實際預期要強。我想表達的是,我們在第一季度需要續訂的軟件續訂很少,因此預計預訂量會很低。但我們擁有的經常性收入模式的美妙之處在於,這些續約的時間並不是特別重要。這是這些續訂的年度價值,我們繼續看到這些預訂的年度價值增長,我們看到所有業務都在增長。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Your next question comes from the line of Harlan Sur with JPMorgan.

    你的下一個問題來自摩根大通的 Harlan Sur。

  • Harlan Sur - Senior Analyst

    Harlan Sur - Senior Analyst

  • Nice job on the strong quarterly execution. We had a call last week with one of the largest ASIC semiconductor companies, a very large customer of yours, that they've got chip design programs with many of the cloud and hyperscalers. And they told us that they're seeing a pickup just over the last sort of 60 to 90 days, just a meaningful pickup in design activity and design project pull-ins under accelerated compute and AI SoC programs from their hyperscale customers. I guess it's not a surprise, given the AI arms rates amongst the cloud sectors, but have you seen this recent pickup in customer design activity program pull-ins reflected in your recent discussions on upcoming renewals and/or customer engagements?

    在強勁的季度執行方面做得很好。上週我們與最大的 ASIC 半導體公司之一通了電話,這是你們的一個非常大的客戶,他們有許多雲計算和超大規模計算器的芯片設計程序。他們告訴我們,他們在過去的 60 到 90 天內看到了回升,這是超大規模客戶在加速計算和 AI SoC 程序下設計活動和設計項目投入的有意義的回升。考慮到雲計算領域的 AI 武器率,我想這並不奇怪,但您是否看到最近客戶設計活動計劃的回升反映在您最近關於即將到來的續約和/或客戶參與的討論中?

  • Anirudh Devgan - CEO, President & Director

    Anirudh Devgan - CEO, President & Director

  • Yes, Harlan, that's a great point. So in general, like I mentioned earlier, I mean, there is a lot of strong design activity. We see with our customers, both on the semi and the system side. And when I talk to our ecosystem partners, right, the foundries and the IP providers. So overall, I think design activity is very strong.

    是的,哈倫,這是一個很好的觀點。所以總的來說,就像我之前提到的,我的意思是,有很多強大的設計活動。我們在半成品和系統方面與我們的客戶一起看。當我與我們的生態系統合作夥伴交談時,對,鑄造廠和 IP 提供商。所以總的來說,我認為設計活動非常強烈。

  • Now in particular to your specific question on AI, I definitely see a lot more interest. And the reason is, I mean -- or at least one of the reasons, I think, which we know -- or you may know already is this new kind of Generative AI and all this talk about ChatGPT is that -- traditionally, surge or this kind of AI inferencing in the past, was done on CPUs.

    現在特別是你關於人工智能的具體問題,我肯定會看到更多的興趣。原因是,我的意思是——或者至少我認為我們知道的原因之一——或者你可能已經知道這種新型的生成人工智能,所有這些關於 ChatGPT 的討論都是——傳統上,激增或者過去這種AI推理,都是在CPU上完成的。

  • But this new Generative AI tools, of course, the training is done on GPUs as always. But even inferencing when you asked a question, a lot of the inference is done on GPUs, which is traditionally -- it's a great accelerating platform, but traditionally more expensive than CPU platform.

    但是這個新的生成人工智能工具,當然,訓練一如既往地在 GPU 上完成。但即使是在你提出問題時進行推理,很多推理都是在 GPU 上完成的,傳統上這是一個很好的加速平台,但傳統上比 CPU 平台更昂貴。

  • So not only it will drive more and more adoption of GPU and accelerated computing in the cloud, but also naturally look for customized silicon that can do it much more effectively and efficiently, both for performance and power.

    因此,它不僅會推動越來越多的人採用 GPU 和加速計算在雲中,而且自然會尋找能夠在性能和功率方面更有效和高效地完成這項工作的定制矽。

  • So we do see Generative AI and adoption of this more reinforcement learning based kind of inference training and inference, especially the inference part of it to drive more silicon demand and more customized silicon and which is -- which you are correct in your observation.

    因此,我們確實看到了生成 AI 並採用了這種更多基於強化學習的推理訓練和推理,尤其是它的推理部分,以推動更多的矽需求和更多的定制矽,這是——你的觀察是正確的。

  • But in general, right, we have talked about for several years, the need for customized silicon whether it is for Generative AI now or in general for cell driving or a variety of applications is expected to continue, and we are pleased to see continued momentum in that space.

    但總的來說,對吧,我們已經討論了好幾年,定制矽的需求,無論是現在的生成人工智能,還是一般的細胞驅動或各種應用,預計將繼續存在,我們很高興看到持續的勢頭在那個空間裡。

  • Harlan Sur - Senior Analyst

    Harlan Sur - Senior Analyst

  • I appreciate that. And then maybe just a follow-on to that question. Many of your cloud and OEM customers that historically have worked with these large ASIC companies, we're also hearing that some of them may be trying to go to extra distance, right, and pull together the capability to do the entire chip designs themselves, right, or what we call BOT-based models, which I would think would mean further expansion of their design teams beyond just fun and design, which again would be maybe more market opportunity for things like your Virtuoso franchise and many of your back-end physical implementation and verification tools. Are you guys seeing this trend as well?

    我很感激。然後也許只是該問題的後續問題。你們的許多雲和 OEM 客戶在歷史上曾與這些大型 ASIC 公司合作,我們還聽說他們中的一些人可能正試圖走得更遠,對,並整合自己進行整個芯片設計的能力,是的,或者我們所說的基於 BOT 的模型,我認為這意味著他們的設計團隊將進一步擴展,而不僅僅是樂趣和設計,這可能又會為您的 Virtuoso 特許經營權和您的許多後端產品帶來更多市場機會物理實現和驗證工具。你們是否也看到了這種趨勢?

  • Anirudh Devgan - CEO, President & Director

    Anirudh Devgan - CEO, President & Director

  • Yes, absolutely. So I think if you look at this kind of transition of system companies doing their own silicon, I think there are at least 3 phases of that. And that's why I've commented in the past that we are still in the second inning of this. And you can look at other companies like in the mobile space when they started doing their own silicon.

    是的,一點沒錯。所以我認為,如果你看一下系統公司自己生產芯片的這種轉變,我認為至少有 3 個階段。這就是為什麼我過去評論說我們仍處於第二局。你可以看看其他公司,比如在移動領域,當他們開始做自己的芯片時。

  • So the first phase is using ASIC provider. And actually, we have great relationship with almost all the major ASIC providers. We have a very deep partnership with all -- in all geography, world-leading ASIC providers. But typically, the system companies will start with ASIC provider, but then typically go to a COT flow or customer-owned tooling. And in that they will do more and more back-end design and more and more -- so usually, that is more opportunity for Cadence.

    所以第一階段是使用 ASIC 供應商。事實上,我們與幾乎所有主要的 ASIC 供應商都有良好的關係。我們與所有地區的世界領先 ASIC 供應商建立了非常深厚的合作夥伴關係。但通常情況下,系統公司會從 ASIC 供應商開始,然後通常會轉向 COT 流程或客戶擁有的工具。因為他們將做越來越多的後端設計,而且越來越多——所以通常,這對 Cadence 來說是更多的機會。

  • And so that the front-end and back-end can be optimized together. I mean the ASIC provider can do that too, but typically, the customer will go to a COT flow, overtime. So that's one thing that really -- has already happened in other system companies, is happening in the newer ones.

    並且讓前端和後端一起優化。我的意思是 ASIC 供應商也可以這樣做,但通常情況下,客戶會加班進入 COT 流程。所以這是真正的一件事 - 已經在其他系統公司中發生,正在發生在較新的系統公司中。

  • And the other trend, of course, is that they will do more and more designs also. Initially, they start with 1 or 2 designs like -- and you can see these examples in all the public ones like Amazon doing in the beginning in networking chip and once that networking chip is successful, they move to Graviton which is a compute server. And then once that's successful, they go to an AI chip. So the number of chips also increases.

    當然,另一個趨勢是他們也會做越來越多的設計。最初,他們從 1 或 2 種設計開始——你可以在所有公開的例子中看到這些例子,比如亞馬遜在網絡芯片開始時所做的,一旦網絡芯片成功,他們就會轉向計算服務器 Graviton。一旦成功,他們就會使用 AI 芯片。所以芯片的數量也增加了。

  • And then the third reason that there is more and more business is new system companies get in. Traditionally, like in the auto space, in the beginning, only 1 or 2 will do it, and then more companies will do it. See, that's why I think there is a growing trend will last for a while because there is companies moving from part of the flow in-house to full flow in-house, which is moving to COT from ASIC more and more designs being done. And thirdly, more and more companies doing silicon. So all these 3 trends are positive for Cadence and the products that we supply.

    然後,業務越來越多的第三個原因是新系統公司進入。傳統上,就像在汽車領域一樣,一開始只有 1 或 2 家公司會做,然後更多的公司會做。看,這就是為什麼我認為這種增長趨勢會持續一段時間,因為有些公司正在從內部的部分流程轉向內部的全流程,這就是從 ASIC 轉向 COT 的原因,越來越多的設計正在完成。第三,越來越多的公司在做矽。因此,所有這 3 個趨勢對 Cadence 和我們提供的產品都是積極的。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Your next question comes from the line of Jason Celino with KeyBanc.

    您的下一個問題來自 Jason Celino 與 KeyBanc 的對話。

  • Jason Vincent Celino - Senior Research Analyst

    Jason Vincent Celino - Senior Research Analyst

  • Just 2 questions from me. Maybe my first one, John. You mentioned taking up the full-year guidance based on some strengths in system analysis. I'm curious, was this driven more from your existing business there? Or was it from OpenEye, I guess how is OpenEye I doing relative to expectations?

    我只有 2 個問題。也許是我的第一個,約翰。你提到根據系統分析的一些優勢接受全年指導。我很好奇,這是否更多地來自您在那裡的現有業務?或者是來自 OpenEye,我想我的 OpenEye 與預期相比如何?

  • John M. Wall - Senior VP & CFO

    John M. Wall - Senior VP & CFO

  • Yes, Jason, so we took up the year by about $20 million. About half of that was with hardware from Q1 because that was a big portion of the beat in Q1. And the other half of that was spread across our software business. Mostly in the System Design & Analysis space and mostly organic. But there was some inorganic contribution as well.

    是的,傑森,所以我們這一年的收入約為 2000 萬美元。其中大約一半來自第一季度的硬件,因為這是第一季度節拍的很大一部分。而另一半分佈在我們的軟件業務中。主要在系統設計和分析領域,而且大部分是有機的。但也有一些無機貢獻。

  • Jason Vincent Celino - Senior Research Analyst

    Jason Vincent Celino - Senior Research Analyst

  • And then my second question on the guide, it looks like second quarter is going to decline sequentially by about 5%, consistent with what we saw last year too. So maybe just a quick refresher on what's driving the seasonality here?

    然後是關於指南的第二個問題,看起來第二季度將連續下降約 5%,與我們去年看到的情況一致。那麼也許只是快速回顧一下是什麼推動了這裡的季節性?

  • John M. Wall - Senior VP & CFO

    John M. Wall - Senior VP & CFO

  • Yes. Jason, when you look at it, it will be -- it'll show up in the functional verification number next quarter. I think the -- when I look at -- like Q1 was great. I mean functional verification was up 30% year-over-year. The quarter was up low teens. When I look at Q2, Q2 also looks great. It's going to be up low teens again compared to Q1 '22, but functional verification will be up probably closer to 20% rather than 30%.

    是的。傑森,當你看到它時,它會——它會出現在下個季度的功能驗證編號中。我認為 - 當我看到 - 就像 Q1 一樣很棒。我的意思是功能驗證同比增長了 30%。該季度增長了十幾歲。當我看 Q2 時,Q2 看起來也很棒。與 22 年第一季度相比,它會再次下降十幾歲,但功能驗證可能會上升接近 20% 而不是 30%。

  • But -- so it's our expectation that -- in our guide, we're assuming that the recurring revenue mix for the year stays at 85/15, 85% recurring, 15% upfront, same as what we experienced last year. Now in Q1, it was 80%. 20% so there was a lot of open revenue for the hardware deliveries that went out in Q1. In Q2, we expect Q2, Q3, Q4 to be less than the 80/20 and it will average 85/15 for the year. So you're seeing that in the Q2 guide.

    但是——我們的預期是——在我們的指南中,我們假設今年的經常性收入組合保持在 85/15,85% 經常性,15% 預付,與我們去年的經歷相同。現在在第一季度,它是 80%。 20%,因此第一季度交付的硬件有很多未結收入。在第二季度,我們預計第二季度、第三季度、第四季度將低於 80/20,全年平均為 85/15。所以你在第二季度指南中看到了這一點。

  • Anirudh Devgan - CEO, President & Director

    Anirudh Devgan - CEO, President & Director

  • Jason, just to add on to what John said. If you look at the Q2 guide, we're still up nicely from Q2 of last year.

    Jason,我想補充一下 John 所說的內容。如果你看一下第二季度指南,我們仍然比去年第二季度好。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Your next question comes from the line of Vivek Arya with Bank of America.

    你的下一個問題來自美國銀行的 Vivek Arya。

  • Vivek Arya - MD in Equity Research & Research Analyst

    Vivek Arya - MD in Equity Research & Research Analyst

  • I had a near term and then kind of a bigger picture question. So near term, your IP sales have slowed down, I think, for 3 quarters now, I think they are actually down year-on-year. I'm curious on what -- Anirudh what's driving the slowdown? And do you expect IP to grow in line with the 14% sales growth for the entire company? What will help those sales reaccelerate in the back half?

    我有一個近期的問題,然後是一個更大的問題。所以近期,你的 IP 銷售已經放緩,我認為,現在已經有 3 個季度了,我認為它們實際上是同比下降的。我很好奇 - Anirudh 是什麼導致經濟放緩?您是否預計 IP 會隨著整個公司 14% 的銷售額增長而增長?什麼將幫助這些銷售在下半年重新加速?

  • Anirudh Devgan - CEO, President & Director

    Anirudh Devgan - CEO, President & Director

  • So Vivek, in general, IP is still a good business, and we expect, in 2023, IP business to grow in the low teens compared to last year. So there is some quarter-by-quarter fluctuation. But in general, we expect IP business to perform well in 2023, yes.

    所以 Vivek,總的來說,IP 仍然是一項不錯的業務,我們預計到 2023 年,IP 業務與去年相比將以低十幾歲的速度增長。所以每個季度都有一些波動。但總的來說,我們預計 IP 業務在 2023 年表現良好,是的。

  • John M. Wall - Senior VP & CFO

    John M. Wall - Senior VP & CFO

  • Yes. And so yes, and what I would add to that is that IP revenue generally can be lumpy because some of it's upfront and is based on the timing of deliveries. Now last year, our IP revenue, we had more deliveries that fell into the first half compared to the second half. This year, it's the other way around, we have more IP deliveries that fall into the second half compared to the first half.

    是的。所以是的,我要補充的是,IP 收入通常可能是不穩定的,因為其中一些是前期的,並且是基於交付時間的。去年,我們的 IP 收入,與下半年相比,上半年的交付量更多。今年,情況正好相反,與上半年相比,下半年我們有更多的 IP 交付。

  • So it kind of skewed the year-over-year numbers, but we're very, very pleased with the performance of the IP business. As Anirudh says, we're generally targeting increasingly profitable low-teen growth every year for our IP business, and we're on track for that.

    所以它有點扭曲了同比數字,但我們對 IP 業務的表現非常非常滿意。正如 Anirudh 所說,我們的 IP 業務每年的目標通常是利潤不斷增長的低青少年增長,我們正在朝著這個目標前進。

  • Vivek Arya - MD in Equity Research & Research Analyst

    Vivek Arya - MD in Equity Research & Research Analyst

  • Got it. And then my bigger picture question is, what is the right kind of public metric to gauge how much benefit you're getting from AI? Is it accretive to your pricing, to your growth rate? So just what is the best public metric to appreciate how much benefit you're getting from AI?

    知道了。然後我更大的問題是,衡量您從 AI 中獲得多少好處的正確公共指標是什麼?它會增加您的定價和增長率嗎?那麼,評估您從 AI 中獲得多少好處的最佳公共指標是什麼?

  • And is there a scenario where just the improved productivity, right, or accuracy that AI provides, could it even cannibalize some of your hardware or software part of the business? Or do you think it's kind of net accretive, longer term, just given the larger TAM size and the greater customer engagement. So just -- what have you seen so far from AI? What is the best way for us to track how much incremental benefit? And do you expect it to be net accretive overtime?

    是否存在這樣一種情況,即 AI 提供的生產力、正確性或準確性的提高,甚至可以蠶食您業務的某些硬件或軟件部分?或者你認為它是一種淨增長,從長遠來看,只是考慮到更大的 TAM 規模和更高的客戶參與度。那麼,到目前為止,您從 AI 中看到了什麼?我們跟踪增量收益的最佳方式是什麼?你認為加班會淨增加嗎?

  • Anirudh Devgan - CEO, President & Director

    Anirudh Devgan - CEO, President & Director

  • Yes, Vivek, what I would say qualify AI is another way of providing dramatic automation. And this history of our industry is to provide more and more automation. And I would say AI is like third wave of massive automation and productivity improvement. I mean the first wave was moving up abstraction level, going from transistor level to gate level to RTL level to C level. That's one wave that drove our industry, which is -- the second wave in the last 10 years is parallelism. Cadence has invested heavily in massive parallelism whether it's on-prem or on the cloud and starting from 2013, we have a lot of parallel products.

    是的,Vivek,我會說合格的 AI 是提供戲劇性自動化的另一種方式。我們行業的這段歷史就是提供越來越多的自動化。我會說 AI 就像大規模自動化和生產力提高的第三次浪潮。我的意思是,第一波浪潮正在提升抽象層次,從晶體管層次到門層次,再到 RTL 層次,再到 C 層次。這是推動我們行業發展的一波浪潮,過去 10 年的第二波浪潮是並行性。 Cadence 在大規模並行性方面投入了大量資金,無論是本地還是雲端,從 2013 年開始,我們有很多並行產品。

  • And then now the third wave of productivity and automation is using AI or what I always call AI for optimization now called reinforcement learning or Generative AI. So we have a history over the last 20, 30 years of doing this kind of -- and in all cases, it doesn't cannibalize.

    現在,第三次生產力和自動化浪潮正在使用人工智能,或者我一直稱之為優化的人工智能,現在被稱為強化學習或生成人工智能。因此,我們在過去 20 年、30 年中都有這樣做的歷史——在所有情況下,它都不會相互蠶食。

  • Actually, the activity increases and amount of software used and amount of optimization that happens more and more designs are done with the available resource headcount. So I expect AI to do that. I mean, in general, the benefit is so huge that when you get these new capabilities, you use it to do much more efficient design.

    實際上,隨著活動的增加,軟件的使用量和優化量的增加,越來越多的設計是用可用資源完成的。所以我希望人工智能能做到這一點。我的意思是,總的來說,好處是如此巨大,以至於當您獲得這些新功能時,您可以使用它來進行更高效的設計。

  • Okay. I'll give you an example, starting to -- some very senior people in our industry. And one comment has been that the Moore's Law has slowed in terms of actual improvements you're getting from one node to another node, when you went from 65 to 40-nanometer, you get X amount of improvement. And now when you go to 5 to 3 that used to be 20% now is they went to 50%, now maybe it's like 10% improvement. And even our tools like Cerebrus or a lot of the other AI-based tools can provide easily 5% to 10% improvement in PPA.

    好的。我給你舉個例子,開始——我們行業中一些非常資深的人。一個評論是摩爾定律在你從一個節點到另一個節點獲得的實際改進方面已經放緩,當你從 65 納米到 40 納米時,你會得到 X 量的改進。現在當你從 5 到 3 時,以前是 20%,現在是 50%,現在可能提高了 10%。甚至我們的工具,如 Cerebrus 或許多其他基於 AI 的工具,也可以輕鬆地將 PPA 提高 5% 到 10%。

  • So you are getting improvement from better algorithms, which are similar to half or full node of a process technology improvement, okay? And that's just huge. The amount of improvement you can get from this third wave of automation using Generative AI is huge.

    所以你正在從更好的算法中得到改進,這類似於工藝技術改進的半節點或全節點,好嗎?那是巨大的。使用生成式 AI 從第三次自動化浪潮中可以獲得巨大的改進。

  • So -- and I think that's one metric that we have published a lot in terms of how much PPA and product improvements we are getting, and that's what we closely monitor with our customers. And I think -- and the other thing is to apply that across other things, not just digital implementation, apply it to package design, to board design, to simulation.

    所以——我認為這是我們在 PPA 和產品改進方面發布了很多的一個指標,這也是我們與客戶密切監控的指標。我認為 - 另一件事是將其應用於其他事物,而不僅僅是數字實現,將其應用於封裝設計、電路板設計和仿真。

  • And what I think opportunity it gives us is, overtime, we can get higher share of R&D invested in automation because the complexity of these things is going up exponentially, so the headcount can't go up exponentially.

    我認為它給我們帶來的機會是,隨著時間的推移,我們可以獲得更高份額的自動化研發投資,因為這些事情的複雜性呈指數級增長,因此員工人數不能呈指數級增長。

  • So the headcount, I expect, still will grow 5, 10 years from now in terms of R&D spend in our customers, but we can get a bigger share of that R&D spend applied to automation.

    因此,我預計,就我們客戶的研發支出而言,從現在開始的 5 年、10 年內,員工人數仍將增長,但我們可以在應用於自動化的研發支出中獲得更大份額。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Your next question comes from the line of John Marco Conti with Deutsche Bank.

    你的下一個問題來自德意志銀行的 John Marco Conti。

  • John Marco Conti

    John Marco Conti

  • So my first one, I just want to touch base again on the AI suite piece. Firstly, whether you're entering a more mature phase of the price discovery mode as you're accelerating volumes? And secondly, perhaps thinking about the specifics of what are the AI demand drivers here, whether those are correlated to increases on other nodes, or the other trends that we should be aware of other than the increase in complexity, i.e. some specific trends in the industry that you're seeing beyond the semi players, particularly as you've mentioned, of course, optimality in SG&A. Is there anything that we can sort of like track or understand what's going on behind the bonnet? I'll ask a follow-up question after.

    所以我的第一個,我只想再次接觸 AI 套件。首先,隨著交易量的增加,您是否正在進入價格發現模式的更成熟階段?其次,也許考慮這裡的 AI 需求驅動因素的具體細節,這些驅動因素是否與其他節點的增加相關,或者除了複雜性增加之外我們應該注意的其他趨勢,即 AI 中的一些特定趨勢您在半參與者之外看到的行業,特別是正如您提到的那樣,當然是 SG&A 的最優性。有什麼我們可以跟踪或了解引擎蓋後面發生的事情嗎?之後我會問一個後續問題。

  • Anirudh Devgan - CEO, President & Director

    Anirudh Devgan - CEO, President & Director

  • Absolutely. I think we talked about chip, right, and how AI can help this third wave of automation. But the same thing can be applied at package and system levels. I do want to highlight that. We have talked for a few years on importance of merging of system and semi and how system companies are doing semi and then we can also provide solutions for System Design & Analysis like thermal simulation, electromagnetic simulation, fluid dynamics.

    絕對地。我想我們談到了芯片,對吧,以及人工智能如何幫助第三次自動化浪潮。但同樣的事情可以應用於包和系統級別。我確實想強調這一點。幾年來,我們一直在討論系統和半成品合併的重要性以及系統公司如何做半成品,然後我們還可以為系統設計和分析提供解決方案,如熱模擬、電磁模擬、流體動力學。

  • And traditionally, those areas were -- first of all, the simulation capabilities were -- could be improved, just the raw simulation speed. So for example, clarity for electromagnetic we got order of magnitude improvement versus traditional methods because applying our computational software expertise, we can do a lot more simulation.

    傳統上,這些領域 - 首先是模擬能力 - 可以改進,只是原始模擬速度。因此,例如,電磁的清晰度與傳統方法相比有了數量級的改進,因為應用我們的計算軟件專業知識,我們可以進行更多的模擬。

  • But on top of that, there are 2 other things that can jump start our System Design & Analysis and you're seeing that even our growth that you're seeing. So one thing is use of GPU acceleration. And we talked about this in my prepared remarks. And I think GPU acceleration is significant for System Design & Analysis there. And the other thing is applying AI on top of simulation.

    但除此之外,還有其他兩件事可以啟動我們的系統設計和分析,您甚至可以看到我們的成長。所以一件事是使用 GPU 加速。我們在準備好的發言中談到了這一點。而且我認為 GPU 加速對於那裡的系統設計和分析非常重要。另一件事是在模擬之上應用人工智能。

  • So EDA has a long history of optimization, not just simulation. And AI for optimization of Generative AI is really new for System Design & Analysis because they are barely -- even the simulation capabilities were not keeping up, but they didn't really have that much optimization capability. So the response we are getting from Allegro X AI and Optimality is huge because not only simulation is possible for the first time, but the optimization of simulation.

    所以 EDA 有著悠久的優化歷史,而不僅僅是模擬。用於優化生成 AI 的 AI 對於系統設計和分析來說確實是新事物,因為它們幾乎沒有——甚至模擬能力也跟不上,但它們並沒有真正擁有那麼多的優化能力。所以我們從 Allegro X AI 和 Optimality 得到的響應是巨大的,因為不僅第一次可以進行模擬,而且模擬的優化也是如此。

  • Because in general, if you're doing some thermal design or design of the data center, yes, you want to stimulate or -- of a car, but you want to optimize, whether it's the shape of the wing or placement of the racks in the data centers. And all this is really now possible with Generative AI.

    因為一般來說,如果你正在做一些熱設計或數據中心的設計,是的,你想要刺激或——汽車,但你想要優化,無論是機翼的形狀還是機架的放置在數據中心。而這一切現在都可以通過生成式 AI 真正實現。

  • So I think the impact on this SD&A will be profound apart from the impact on chip design. And we are the company that can combine those 2 things and apply AI to both of these areas.

    所以我認為除了對芯片設計的影響之外,對這個 SD&A 的影響將是深遠的。我們是可以將這兩件事結合起來並將人工智能應用於這兩個領域的公司。

  • John Marco Conti

    John Marco Conti

  • Great. And just my second one is on M&A, whether there's any M&A in sight or plan on increasing the portfolio perhaps in SG&A -- sorry, in systems and analysis. Or is 2023 consistent with the plan of distributing cash to shareholders via buybacks?

    偉大的。我的第二個問題是關於併購,是否有任何併購或計劃增加投資組合,也許是在 SG&A 中——抱歉,是在系統和分析方面。或者 2023 年是否符合通過回購向股東分配現金的計劃?

  • Anirudh Devgan - CEO, President & Director

    Anirudh Devgan - CEO, President & Director

  • Yes. I mean, in general, we want to start with the strategy, and we feel we have a very, very strong strategy with intelligent System Design. This combination of silicon system and data. And we are very pleased with our progress, and we continue to grow organically and perform well, both in terms of revenue growth and margin. So that's our base -- strategy-based outlook.

    是的。我的意思是,總的來說,我們想從戰略開始,我們覺得我們有一個非常非常強大的智能係統設計戰略。這種矽系統和數據的結合。我們對我們的進展感到非常滿意,我們繼續有機增長並在收入增長和利潤率方面表現良好。這就是我們的基礎——基於戰略的前景。

  • Now we always evaluate M&A as it comes up, and if it's a good return for our shareholders and good return in terms of R&D. But in general, we are pleased with our strategy and our organic execution.

    現在,我們總是在併購出現時對其進行評估,以及它是否對我們的股東和研發方面有良好的回報。但總的來說,我們對我們的戰略和有機執行感到滿意。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Your next question comes from the line of Blair Abernethy with Rosenblatt Securities.

    你的下一個問題來自 Blair Abernethy 與 Rosenblatt Securities 的對話。

  • Blair Harold Abernethy - Senior Software Analyst

    Blair Harold Abernethy - Senior Software Analyst

  • Just a quick question on the multi-physics side of things, the System Design. The growth, I think, you called out was around 27% year-over-year. Just want to clarify, was that including the acquisitions? Or is that organic?

    只是一個關於事物的多物理方面的快速問題,系統設計。我認為,你所說的增長率約為 27%。只是想澄清一下,這是否包括收購?或者那是有機的?

  • And then secondly, just on the multi-physics side of things, how are you doing in terms of your go-to-market strategy and scaling the business up? It looks like it's getting close to a $500 million run rate. Just want to see how you're doing in the go-to-market side of things.

    其次,就事物的多物理方面而言,您在進入市場戰略和擴大業務方面做得如何?看起來它的運行率接近 5 億美元。只是想看看您在產品上市方面的表現如何。

  • Anirudh Devgan - CEO, President & Director

    Anirudh Devgan - CEO, President & Director

  • Yes, absolutely. The growth rate is a combination of organic and inorganic, right, the acquisitions we made in the past. And in terms of go-to-market, we have -- of course, there is a lot of overlap with our current customers, too. And then, of course, some of the customers are new customers. So we try to leverage both our existing channel, and then we also have set up a system kind of sales team that targeted new customers that we traditionally haven't talked to.

    是的,一點沒錯。增長率是有機和無機的結合,對,我們過去進行的收購。在進入市場方面,我們——當然,與我們當前的客戶也有很多重疊之處。然後,當然,一些客戶是新客戶。因此,我們嘗試利用我們現有的渠道,然後我們還建立了一個系統的銷售團隊,以我們傳統上沒有與之交談過的新客戶為目標。

  • But one thing to remember in SD&A, as this overlap of system and semi companies, lot of the leading companies in SD&A are companies that Cadence already has a very deep relationships with. So -- and we are still selling to the engineering organizations and it's just -- so the good part is both the EDA and the SDA, our engineering software maybe different parts of the customers or engineering organization, but more and more coupled engineering organization with the combination of system and semi.

    但在 SD&A 中要記住一件事,由於系統公司和半成品公司的這種重疊,SD&A 中的許多領先公司都是 Cadence 已經與之建立了非常深厚關係的公司。所以——我們仍在向工程組織銷售,它只是——所以好的部分是 EDA 和 SDA,我們的工程軟件可能是客戶或工程組織的不同部分,但越來越多的工程組織與系統和半的結合。

  • And then when we go to SD&A side, we always look at a 3-pronged approach in terms of go-to-market. So one is direct sales, like we do for our EDA business, and that -- we have great relationship with the top customers in the world, which are consuming both EDA and SDA. And then I think in SD&A, there is a bigger portion of indirect or channel. So we had a strong channel for our Allegro and OrCAD businesses, which is PCB and packaging, but we have expanded the channel to now include SD&A to bring our new channel partners throughout the world.

    然後,當我們進入 SD&A 方面時,我們總是在進入市場方面考慮三管齊下的方法。所以一個是直接銷售,就像我們為我們的 EDA 業務所做的那樣——我們與世界上的頂級客戶有著良好的關係,這些客戶同時使用 EDA 和 SDA。然後我認為在 SD&A 中,間接或渠道的比例更大。因此,我們為我們的 Allegro 和 OrCAD 業務提供了強大的渠道,即 PCB 和封裝,但我們已將渠道擴展到現在包括 SD&A,以便將我們的新渠道合作夥伴帶到世界各地。

  • And then the third part of our go-to-market is using cloud and on cloud. We announced last year. So go direct, especially for smaller customers who don't want to have in their own IT department and especially in the systems space, they are much more amenable to direct SaaS kind of cloud offering.

    然後我們進入市場的第三部分是使用雲和在雲上。我們去年宣布。所以直接去做,特別是對於不想在自己的 IT 部門,尤其是在系統空間中的較小客戶,他們更願意直接使用 SaaS 類型的雲產品。

  • So overall, this is an ongoing progression. As you said now the business is getting to a good scale. And especially in SD&A, we want this 3-pronged approach of direct, indirect plus cloud. But one thing to remember is a lot of the top customers in SD&A are already existing EDA customers, and that really helps us as we go to market.

    所以總的來說,這是一個持續的進步。正如你所說,現在業務正在發展到一個很好的規模。尤其是在 SD&A 中,我們需要這種直接、間接和雲的三管齊下的方法。但要記住的一件事是,SD&A 的許多頂級客戶已經是現有的 EDA 客戶,這對我們進入市場很有幫助。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Your next question comes from the line of Ruben Roy with Stifel.

    您的下一個問題來自 Stifel 的 Ruben Roy。

  • Ruben Roy - MD & Equity Research Analyst

    Ruben Roy - MD & Equity Research Analyst

  • John, I had a question on the commentary around renewals. And just thinking back to the pandemic and how you guys thoughtfully took into account some of your smaller customers and how that might impact some of your software renewals. Just wondering, given the state of the economy right now, and we've already seen some slowing in IT spending.

    約翰,我對有關續訂的評論有疑問。回想一下大流行病,以及你們如何深思熟慮地考慮到一些較小的客戶,以及這可能如何影響您的一些軟件更新。只是想知道,鑑於目前的經濟狀況,我們已經看到 IT 支出有所放緩。

  • Do you think you might see some uncertainty given the soft macro and renewals in the second half? Are you calibrating that into your thinking for full year guidance at this point? Or is that not something that you're worried about?

    考慮到下半年的軟宏觀和更新,你認為你可能會看到一些不確定性嗎?在這一點上,您是否將其校準到您對全年指導的想法中?或者這不是您擔心的事情?

  • John M. Wall - Senior VP & CFO

    John M. Wall - Senior VP & CFO

  • Yes, Ruben, I'm not really worried about that in the second half in terms of the renewals. The renewals are with really large, very, very highly creditworthy customers. But we did see some softness in the lower creditworthy tier of customers like start-ups in Q1. And we have already factored that into our guidance for the year -- for both Q2 and for the year. But generally, at the high end with the big renewals are with like the strongest creditworthy customers in the industry.

    是的,魯本,就續約而言,我並不擔心下半場。續約是與非常非常有信譽的客戶進行的。但我們確實看到第一季度初創企業等信用等級較低的客戶出現了一些疲軟。我們已經將這一點納入了我們今年的指導方針——包括第二季度和今年。但總的來說,在高端有大筆續約的是業內最有信譽的客戶。

  • Ruben Roy - MD & Equity Research Analyst

    Ruben Roy - MD & Equity Research Analyst

  • Right. Got it. And then a quick follow-up for Anirudh on the hardware. It's come up now a few times, Anirudh, on your call, which is nice to see, the take rate or attach rate, I should say, of hardware, continues to move up. The numbers have been quite strong, obviously. Is there a way to think about the percentage of your customers now that are on the new Palladium and Protium systems?

    正確的。知道了。然後是 Anirudh 在硬件方面的快速跟進。現在已經出現了幾次,Anirudh,在你的電話中,很高興看到,硬件的採用率或附加率,我應該說,繼續上升。顯然,這些數字非常強勁。有沒有辦法考慮現在使用新的 Palladium 和 Protium 系統的客戶百分比?

  • Just wondering if there's a continued refresh cycle coming around that -- relevant metric at all and to think about kind of what the percentage of customers is. And if that continues to go up, is 85/15 sort of the right way to think about the longer-term mix for the company?

    只是想知道是否有一個持續的更新周期圍繞著這個——相關的指標,並考慮一下客戶的百分比是多少。如果這種情況繼續上升,85/15 是否是考慮公司長期組合的正確方法?

  • Anirudh Devgan - CEO, President & Director

    Anirudh Devgan - CEO, President & Director

  • I mean the good thing with the hardware is that, like we have mentioned in the past, like it has become almost an essential part of the design process. So -- and it's almost -- it's virtually impossible to design these complex chips without use of the hardware platforms. So I would say all the major customers, especially all the big major customers that drive most of our revenue are using hardware anyway.

    我的意思是硬件的好處在於,就像我們過去提到的那樣,它幾乎已成為設計過程的重要組成部分。所以 - 幾乎 - 如果不使用硬件平台,幾乎不可能設計這些複雜的芯片。所以我想說所有主要客戶,尤其是推動我們大部分收入的所有主要客戶無論如何都在使用硬件。

  • Now there is -- so there's always room for refresh of that of the hardware they're using. And also, as the chips -- as they go to different nodes. I mean, we are at like 5-nanometer going to 3 to 2 to 1.4 to 1. So there is at least 10 years of node refresh ahead of us. So every time you go to a new node, the size of the chip increases, the number of gates that are on chip, increases. So you typically need more and more hardware. So the capacity requirement for hardware increases.

    現在有 - 所以總是有更新他們正在使用的硬件的空間。而且,作為芯片——當它們進入不同的節點時。我的意思是,我們大約是 5 納米從 3 比 2 到 1.4 比 1。所以我們至少需要 10 年的節點更新。所以每次你去一個新的節點,芯片的尺寸都會增加,芯片上的門的數量也會增加。因此,您通常需要越來越多的硬件。因此對硬件的容量要求增加了。

  • So that's why I think that for long term, hardware is going to be in a secular growth period. Not only is it critical, but you need more and more and that's going to last for at least for the next 10 years, if not more. And then sometimes, there's opportunities for some of the smaller customers to add hardware, and we look at that also, and we have a variety of business models to help the smaller customers. But at this point, most of our big customers are using hardware, but still there is growth because the chip size increases or if they're using Palladium, they can use more Protium and vice versa.

    所以這就是為什麼我認為從長遠來看,硬件將處於長期增長期。它不僅至關重要,而且你需要越來越多,而且至少會持續 10 年,甚至更長。有時,一些較小的客戶有機會添加硬件,我們也關注這一點,我們有多種商業模式來幫助較小的客戶。但在這一點上,我們的大多數大客戶都在使用硬件,但仍然有增長,因為芯片尺寸增加,或者如果他們使用 Palladium,他們可以使用更多 Protium,反之亦然。

  • John M. Wall - Senior VP & CFO

    John M. Wall - Senior VP & CFO

  • And I would just add to that, Ruben, that I think your question on M&A it's the fact, back in 2021, I think our recurring revenue to our upfront mix was 88/12. And of course, that grew -- the upfront hardware was so strong last year. It went to 85/15. And of course, we're guiding to the year of 85/15 now. Without -- with the caveat that we're going to take another look in the summer, and we may take the second half up if we see continued hardware strength because strength continued into Q1. And although we're guiding 85/15 right now, I would take the over on the 15 rather than the under.

    我只想補充一點,魯本,我認為你關於併購的問題是事實,早在 2021 年,我認為我們的前期組合的經常性收入是 88/12。當然,這種情況還在增長——去年的前期硬件非常強大。它達到了 85/15。當然,我們現在正在引導 85/15 年。沒有 - 警告我們將在夏天再看一次,如果我們看到持續的硬件實力,我們可能會考慮下半年,因為實力持續到第一季度。雖然我們現在正在指導 85/15,但我會在 15 號而不是下方接管。

  • Ruben Roy - MD & Equity Research Analyst

    Ruben Roy - MD & Equity Research Analyst

  • That's really helpful, John. I guess just really quick, I know, I'm only allowed one follow-up. But just on that point, have lead times normalized, would you say? Or is there more work to be done on the production side?

    這真的很有幫助,約翰。我想真的很快,我知道,我只允許進行一次跟進。但就這一點而言,交貨時間正常化了嗎?還是製作方面還有更多的工作要做?

  • John M. Wall - Senior VP & CFO

    John M. Wall - Senior VP & CFO

  • We should get back to more normal lead times by the middle of the year, but we thought it was really important in the first half to prioritize deliveries to customers that have been waiting the longest for the hardware. I mean, as you know, we have multiple uses for the hardware. We want to set up demo models for customers for future sales and things like that. But the first quarter was heavily weighted towards deliveries to customers that have been waiting a long time for those orders. We're still working through those lead times, but we expect to be back to more normal lead times by the middle of the year.

    我們應該在年中恢復到更正常的交貨時間,但我們認為在上半年優先交付給等待硬件時間最長的客戶是非常重要的。我的意思是,如您所知,我們對硬件有多種用途。我們想為客戶設置演示模型以用於未來的銷售和類似的事情。但第一季度的重心是向等待這些訂單已久的客戶交付。我們仍在努力度過那些交貨時間,但我們預計到今年年中將恢復到更正常的交貨時間。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Your next question comes from the line of Joe Vruwink with Baird.

    你的下一個問題來自 Joe Vruwink 與 Baird 的對話。

  • Joseph D. Vruwink - Senior Research Analyst

    Joseph D. Vruwink - Senior Research Analyst

  • I wanted to take another crack at the topic of AI and adoption. So when you think about maybe the best example of Cerebrus within implementation efforts, if you think about the total block engineers as an account, what share of those engineers are typically using the product at this point? And in your mind, is that something as we enter the next round of renewals, it could get more lightly deployed across the entire team?

    我想再談談 AI 和採用的話題。因此,當您考慮 Cerebrus 在實施工作中的最佳示例時,如果您將總區塊工程師視為一個帳戶,那麼此時通常使用該產品的工程師中有多少?在你看來,當我們進入下一輪續約時,它是否可以在整個團隊中更輕鬆地部署?

  • Anirudh Devgan - CEO, President & Director

    Anirudh Devgan - CEO, President & Director

  • Yes, Joe, what I would say is that, I mean, like we talked about, I think, out of top 20 customers, I think 10 of them are using Cerebrus for production. And then we are engaged with all the top customers and then 5 hyperscalers are using. And I think -- but still it's not -- I think there's still a lot of opportunity for growth there. Because the way I look at it is, especially Cerebrus or JedAI or all these platforms that I think, overtime, they will become the cockpit.

    是的,喬,我想說的是,我的意思是,就像我們談到的那樣,在前 20 大客戶中,我認為其中 10 家正在使用 Cerebrus 進行生產。然後我們與所有頂級客戶接觸,然後有 5 個超大規模客戶正在使用。而且我認為 - 但仍然不是 - 我認為那裡仍然有很多增長機會。因為我的看法是,尤其是 Cerebrus 或 JedAI 或我認為的所有這些平台,隨著時間的推移,它們將成為駕駛艙。

  • So in the old days, in case of digital implementation, Innovus was the cockpit. So the customers would run Innovus or try different experiments with Innovus. But now Cerebrus can do that, mathematically with AI. And then you can still combine that with -- you can still do manual experiments on top of that. So I think overall, I would expect in 3 to 5 years, almost all designers would be using Cerebrus what they were using Innovus in the past, okay? And same thing with Optimality, same thing with Allegro X AI.

    所以在過去,在數字化實施的情況下,Innovus 是駕駛艙。因此,客戶會運行 Innovus 或嘗試使用 Innovus 進行不同的實驗。但現在 Cerebrus 可以通過人工智能在數學上做到這一點。然後你仍然可以將它與 - 你仍然可以在此之上進行手動實驗。所以我認為總體而言,我預計在 3 到 5 年內,幾乎所有設計師都會使用 Cerebrus,就像他們過去使用 Innovus 一樣,好嗎?與 Optimality 相同,與 Allegro X AI 相同。

  • So we are still ways from that. So there is still this progression that has to happen. So I think we are engaged with all the customers. They're using it. But I think, overtime, it will become the dominant way of running products will be using Cerebrus rather than using the old way. It's like going from manual cars to automatic cars.

    所以我們還有很長的路要走。所以仍然有這種進展必鬚髮生。所以我認為我們與所有客戶都有接觸。他們正在使用它。但我認為,隨著時間的推移,它將成為運行產品的主要方式,使用 Cerebrus 而不是使用舊方式。這就像從手動車到自動車。

  • Some people may still want to drive manual, but more and more people will drive automatically using Cerebrus. So I think in that, we are still in the early innings. So it's still like years to go in that. And that's good. We are -- in our business, like we mentioned earlier, we're looking at annual contract value and let the natural adoption happens over the next few years.

    有些人可能仍想手動駕駛,但越來越多的人會使用 Cerebrus 自動駕駛。所以我認為,我們仍處於早期階段。所以這仍然需要很多年。那很好。我們 - 在我們的業務中,就像我們之前提到的那樣,我們正在研究年度合同價值,並讓自然採用在未來幾年內發生。

  • Joseph D. Vruwink - Senior Research Analyst

    Joseph D. Vruwink - Senior Research Analyst

  • Okay. That's great. And then on the System Design segment, can you -- I don't think I heard it just an update on where you expect growth to be in 2023. And then in reflecting on the development here and kind of the upside you're seeing in bookings. Is it possible to pinpoint it something like you talked about the repeat orders on the organic solvers. You've obviously built a bigger CFD business. There's some new channel initiatives. Are any of these things more important than others in terms of driving the upside you've seen?

    好的。那太棒了。然後在系統設計部分,你能——我不認為我聽到的只是關於你預計 2023 年增長的最新情況。然後反思這裡的發展和你看到的好處在預訂中。是否有可能像您談到有機求解器上的重複訂單那樣精確定位它。您顯然已經建立了更大的 CFD 業務。有一些新的渠道計劃。在推動您所看到的上行方面,這些事情中的任何事情是否比其他事情更重要?

  • Anirudh Devgan - CEO, President & Director

    Anirudh Devgan - CEO, President & Director

  • I think 2023, I still expect a very good year for System Design & Analysis. In terms of initiatives, I think there are a whole bunch of initiatives we are driving. I think what we always say is we are obsessed with best-of-class products first. So that's the most important thing. If the products are differentiated, the customers always use it. And all these channel initiative health and awareness of our products with marketing helps. But in the end, we are always focused on developing and supporting making best-in-class products.

    我認為 2023 年,我仍然希望系統設計與分析是非常好的一年。在倡議方面,我認為我們正在推動一大堆倡議。我想我們常說的是,我們首先痴迷於一流的產品。所以這是最重要的事情。如果產品差異化,客戶總是會使用它。所有這些渠道主動健康和對我們產品的認識與營銷都有幫助。但最終,我們始終專注於開發和支持製造一流的產品。

  • So on that, we've made a lot of progress and benefits. I mean, recently, I talked about it in my prepared remarks. But one thing I think in System Design & Analysis, like I mentioned, I'm very optimistic about use of GPUs. And GPUs have done wonders in AI, right, by accelerating AI computation.

    因此,在這方面,我們取得了很多進展和收益。我的意思是,最近,我在準備好的發言稿中談到了這一點。但是我在系統設計與分析中想到一件事,就像我提到的那樣,我對 GPU 的使用非常樂觀。 GPU 通過加速 AI 計算在 AI 領域創造了奇蹟,對吧。

  • And traditionally, GPUs haven't worked that well in EDA, they do help EDA, but it can dramatically help SDA. Because SDA is a more kind of the -- it's more physics-based simulation. So it's more kind of matrix multiply, which is similar to in spirit to AI. So like recently with our collaboration with NVIDIA, Jensen talked about that Cadence CFD on GPU for the same cost is giving a 9x improvement in speed up and 17x improvement in power efficiency.

    傳統上,GPU 在 EDA 中的表現不是很好,它們確實有助於 EDA,但它可以極大地幫助 SDA。因為 SDA 更像是一種——它更基於物理的模擬。所以它更像是一種矩陣乘法,在本質上類似於人工智能。因此,就像我們最近與 NVIDIA 的合作一樣,Jensen 談到了以相同成本在 GPU 上使用 Cadence CFD 可以將加速提高 9 倍,將能效提高 17 倍。

  • And GPUs are slightly more expensive than CPUs. I mean, typically, I would guess, at least 3 to 5x. So you're getting 30 to 50x speed up on GPUs that normalized for cost you're still getting 10x or 9x improvement in speed.

    GPU 比 CPU 稍微貴一點。我的意思是,我猜通常至少是 3 到 5 倍。因此,您在 GPU 上獲得了 30 到 50 倍的速度提升,而這些速度已針對成本進行了標準化,您仍然可以獲得 10 倍或 9 倍的速度提升。

  • So that's a huge improvement based on our special algorithms because we have a long history of massive parallelism and CPUs, and now we are applying it to GPUs, both -- especially in SD&A, both for electromagnetic and CFD. So I think that can also provide a lot of growth. I talked about AI and all for chip and system, but this acceleration on GPUs accelerated compute for System Analysis is another big vector. And even in OpenEye, we use GPUs for acceleration.

    因此,這是基於我們特殊算法的巨大改進,因為我們在大規模並行性和 CPU 方面擁有悠久的歷史,現在我們正在將其應用於 GPU,尤其是在 SD&A 中,包括電磁和 CFD。所以我認為這也可以提供很多增長。我談到了 AI 以及所有用於芯片和系統的東西,但是這種 GPU 加速系統分析的加速計算是另一個重要的方向。甚至在 OpenEye 中,我們也使用 GPU 進行加速。

  • So I think that's -- we have multiple ways to accelerate our position in SD&A, but we're always focused on best-in-class first, right? Yes.

    所以我認為那是——我們有多種方法來加速我們在 SD&A 中的地位,但我們始終專注於一流的第一,對吧?是的。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Your next question comes from the line of Andrew DeGasperi with Berenberg.

    你的下一個問題來自 Andrew DeGasperi 與 Berenberg 的對話。

  • Andrew Lodovico DeGasperi - Analyst

    Andrew Lodovico DeGasperi - Analyst

  • I guess one question I had is, and I know you've talked a lot about AI on this call, but just wondering if you think this could potentially lead to more pronounced market share shifts in the future? I know historically, there's not have been a lot of market share changes in EDA. But just wondering if we thought -- with the portfolio that you have relative -- and your investments that you've made relative to your competitors, do you think that could change?

    我想我有一個問題是,我知道你在這次電話會議上談了很多關於人工智能的問題,但只是想知道你是否認為這可能會導致未來更明顯的市場份額轉移?我知道從歷史上看,EDA 的市場份額變化不大。但只是想知道我們是否認為 - 與您相對的投資組合 - 以及您相對於競爭對手所做的投資,您認為這會改變嗎?

  • Anirudh Devgan - CEO, President & Director

    Anirudh Devgan - CEO, President & Director

  • Yes, that's a good point. I mean, in general, like I mentioned, we're always focused on best-in-class right. So and that AI can play a big role in that. But I do think that the real opportunity for the industry, both for EDA, SD&A is more and more share of R&D going to automation. I think that will be good for all players, of course. We invest heavily, we want to have best-in-class solutions in our products. But I think the bigger trend will also be -- these things are getting so complex there's not going to be enough headcount to design these things 5, 7 years from now. So the bigger opportunity for the entire industry is more shift to automation and that's, I think, good for everyone.

    是的,這是一個很好的觀點。我的意思是,總的來說,就像我提到的那樣,我們始終專注於一流的權利。因此,人工智能可以在其中發揮重要作用。但我確實認為,對於 EDA、SD&A 行業來說,真正的機會是越來越多的研發份額轉向自動化。我認為這當然對所有球員都有好處。我們投入巨資,我們希望在我們的產品中擁有一流的解決方案。但我認為更大的趨勢也將是——這些東西變得如此復雜,5、7 年後將沒有足夠的人手來設計這些東西。所以整個行業更大的機會是更多地轉向自動化,我認為這對每個人都有好處。

  • Yes, the other thing, I think, the way we are unique is not just apply best-in-class products in EDA, but we combine chip and systems. I think that also provides us unique differentiation with our customers and our market position. And that's the strategy we have been implementing for the last 4, 5 years. And applying AI improves our EDS solution, but also the combination of EDA plus SDA and computational software, that also improves our competitive position in the market.

    是的,我認為,另一件事,我們的獨特之處不僅僅是在 EDA 中應用一流的產品,而是我們將芯片和系統結合在一起。我認為這也為我們與客戶和我們的市場地位提供了獨特的差異化。這就是我們過去 4、5 年一直在實施的戰略。應用人工智能改進了我們的 EDS 解決方案,也改進了 EDA 加 SDA 和計算軟件的組合,這也提高了我們在市場上的競爭地位。

  • Andrew Lodovico DeGasperi - Analyst

    Andrew Lodovico DeGasperi - Analyst

  • That's helpful. And then maybe on just general trends this quarter. Just wondering in terms of the systems business, have you seen any change, particularly in the data center side in terms of demand? Or is it been kind of consistent relative to the previous quarters?

    這很有幫助。然後可能只是本季度的總體趨勢。只是想知道在系統業務方面,您是否看到任何變化,特別是在需求方面的數據中心方面?或者它與前幾個季度相比是否一致?

  • Anirudh Devgan - CEO, President & Director

    Anirudh Devgan - CEO, President & Director

  • I think that -- I mean you know the news is, it's a tough environment for our -- in general, with all the news is -- but in general, like I said, the design activity is strong, okay? And so -- and our results are strong. I think the data center customer still invest heavily in automation and R&D. And the new uptick like, in the beginning of the call, we talked about the new uptake, I think, is more to the infrastructure to serve Generative AI. I think that's definitely a very active area for the big data center companies because these things are really complicated and complex to serve this whole Generative AI base.

    我認為 - 我的意思是你知道新聞是,這對我們來說是一個艱難的環境 - 總的來說,所有新聞都是 - 但總的來說,就像我說的那樣,設計活動很強大,好嗎?所以 - 我們的結果很好。我認為數據中心客戶仍然在自動化和研發方面投入大量資金。而新的上升趨勢,就像在電話會議開始時,我們談到了新的上升趨勢,我認為,更多的是服務於生成人工智能的基礎設施。我認為這對於大數據中心公司來說絕對是一個非常活躍的領域,因為這些東西真的很複雜,要服務於整個生成人工智能基礎。

  • So that will require use of specialized hardware, also different kind of hardware mix in the infrastructure. So I think that's going to be a change, and that's good for our opportunities for us, yes.

    因此,這將需要使用專門的硬件,還需要在基礎設施中混合使用不同種類的硬件。所以我認為這將是一個變化,這對我們的機會有好處,是的。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Your next question comes from the line of Arsenije Matovic with Wolfe Research.

    您的下一個問題來自 Arsenije Matovic 與 Wolfe Research 的合作。

  • Arsenije Edward Matovic - Research Analyst

    Arsenije Edward Matovic - Research Analyst

  • This is Arsenije on for Josh. So just to double click on the systems, company strength and I wanted to see if there was any kind of call-outs in particular end markets and how many dealerships in end markets have changed relative to last year or any kind of outlook changing in terms of end market demand within those companies and then a quick follow-up.

    這是 Josh 的 Arsenije。所以只需雙擊系統、公司實力,我想看看在特定的終端市場是否有任何類型的呼叫,以及終端市場中有多少經銷商相對於去年發生了變化,或者任何形式的前景變化這些公司內部的終端市場需求,然後快速跟進。

  • Anirudh Devgan - CEO, President & Director

    Anirudh Devgan - CEO, President & Director

  • Well, I would say that in system companies, data center is always a lot of activity, driven by Generative AI. And I think we mentioned also in our prepared remarks, automotive and A&D are definitely we're seeing a lot of design activity in those. So I would -- if you have to pick like a few verticals, so definitely data centers with AI and then automotive, AI, in general, but also electrification and more A&D. And we are seeing that in our own engagements with customers.

    好吧,我想說在系統公司中,數據中心總是有很多活動,由生成人工智能驅動。而且我認為我們在準備好的評論中也提到,汽車和 A&D 肯定是我們在其中看到的很多設計活動。所以我會 - 如果你必須選擇一些垂直領域,那麼肯定是帶有人工智能的數據中心,然後是汽車、人工智能,一般來說,還有電氣化和更多的 A&D。我們在與客戶的互動中看到了這一點。

  • Arsenije Edward Matovic - Research Analyst

    Arsenije Edward Matovic - Research Analyst

  • Got it. And then if we could kind of think about some of the strength in hardware, how much of that is driven from refresh from existing semi customers versus maybe new purchases from systems companies if you kind of like quantify that from a high level would be helpful.

    知道了。然後,如果我們可以考慮一下硬件的一些優勢,那麼其中有多少是來自現有半客戶的更新,而不是來自系統公司的新採購,如果你喜歡從高層次量化這將是有幫助的。

  • Anirudh Devgan - CEO, President & Director

    Anirudh Devgan - CEO, President & Director

  • I think it's a combination of both, it's both. Like the system -- the semi company has more designs and newer designs, require more and more hardware. And system companies, by its nature, also have software. That's -- otherwise there wouldn't be system companies. So in system companies, our dual dynamic view of Protium and Palladium really helps because Protium is more for software bring up and then Palladium for chip bring up. So I would say both are strong, but there is more software content by nature in the system companies.

    我認為這是兩者的結合,兩者兼而有之。就像系統——半導體公司有更多的設計和更新的設計,需要越來越多的硬件。而係統公司,就其本質而言,也有軟件。那是——否則就不會有系統公司。因此,在系統公司中,我們對 Protium 和 Palladium 的雙重動態視圖確實有幫助,因為 Protium 更多地用於軟件開發,然後 Palladium 用於芯片開發。所以我會說兩者都很強,但是系統公司的軟件內容本質上更多。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • I will now turn the call back over to Anirudh Devgan for closing remarks.

    我現在將把電話轉回給 Anirudh Devgan 作結束語。

  • Anirudh Devgan - CEO, President & Director

    Anirudh Devgan - CEO, President & Director

  • Thank you all for joining us this afternoon. It's an exciting time for Cadence with strong business momentum and growing opportunities in the semiconductor and systems industry. We are proud of the innovative and inclusive culture we have built at Cadence. And on behalf of our employees and our Board of Directors, we thank our customers, partners and investors for their continued trust and confidence in Cadence.

    感謝大家今天下午加入我們。對於 Cadence 來說,這是一個激動人心的時刻,因為它在半導體和系統行業擁有強勁的業務勢頭和不斷增長的機會。我們為在 Cadence 建立的創新和包容文化感到自豪。我們代表我們的員工和董事會,感謝我們的客戶、合作夥伴和投資者對 Cadence 的持續信任和信心。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Thank you for participating in today's Cadence First Quarter 2023 Earnings Conference Call. This concludes today's call. You may now disconnect.

    感謝您參加今天的 Cadence 2023 年第一季度收益電話會議。今天的電話會議到此結束。您現在可以斷開連接。