Crown Holdings Inc (CCK) 2025 Q2 法說會逐字稿

完整原文

使用警語:中文譯文來源為 Google 翻譯,僅供參考,實際內容請以英文原文為主

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Thank you for standing by. The conference will begin momentarily. Until such time, you will hear music. Thank you and please continue to stand by. Thank you for standing by the conference. We'll begin momentarily until such time you will hear music. Thank you and please continue to stand by.

    感謝您的支持。會議即將開始。直到那時,你才會聽到音樂。謝謝您,請繼續支持。感謝大家出席本次會議。我們將立即開始,直到您聽到音樂為止。謝謝您,請繼續支持。

  • Good morning, and welcome to Crown Holdings' second-quarter 2025 conference call. (Operator Instructions). Please be advised that the conference is being recorded. I would now like to turn the call over to Mr. Kevin Clothier, Senior Vice President and Chief Financial Officer. Sir, you may begin.

    早安,歡迎參加皇冠控股 2025 年第二季電話會議。(操作員指令)。請注意,會議正在錄製中。現在我想將電話轉給資深副總裁兼財務長 Kevin Clothier 先生。先生,您可以開始了。

  • Kevin Clothier - Chief Financial Officer, Senior Vice President

    Kevin Clothier - Chief Financial Officer, Senior Vice President

  • Thank you, El, and good morning. With me on today's call is Tim Donahue, President and Chief Executive Officer. If you don't already have the earnings release, it is available on our website at crowncork.com. On this call, as in the earnings release, we will be making a number of forward-looking statements. Actual results could vary materially from such statements.

    謝謝你,El,早安。和我一起參加今天電話會議的還有總裁兼執行長 Tim Donahue。如果您尚未收到收益報告,請造訪我們的網站 crowncork.com 取得。與收益報告一樣,在本次電話會議中,我們將做出一些前瞻性陳述。實際結果可能與此類陳述有重大差異。

  • Additional information concerning factors that could cause actual results to vary is contained in the press release and in our SEC filings, including Form 10-K for 2024 and subsequent filings. Earnings for the quarter were $1.81 per share compared to $1.45 per share in the prior year quarter. Adjusted earnings per share were $2.15 compared to $1.81 in the prior year quarter.

    有關可能導致實際結果發生變化的因素的更多信息,包含在新聞稿和我們向美國證券交易委員會提交的文件中,包括 2024 年的 10-K 表格和後續文件。本季每股收益為 1.81 美元,而去年同期每股收益為 1.45 美元。調整後每股收益為 2.15 美元,而去年同期為 1.81 美元。

  • Net sales were up 3.6% compared to the prior year quarter, primarily reflecting 1% higher shipments in North American beverage, a 7% increase across European beverage and a 5% increase in North American food can volumes, the pass-through of higher raw material costs and the favorable foreign exchange -- foreign currency translation.

    淨銷售額與去年同期相比增長了 3.6%,主要反映了北美飲料出貨量增長了 1%、歐洲飲料出貨量增長了 7%、北美食品罐頭銷量增長了 5%、原材料成本上漲以及有利的外匯(外幣折算)的影響。

  • Segment income was $476 million in the quarter compared to $437 million in the prior year, reflecting increased volumes noted previously, and improved operations across the global manufacturing footprint. For the six month at June 30, free cash flow improved to $387 million, from $178 million in the prior year, reflecting higher income and lower capital spending. The company returned $269 million to shareholders in the first six months.

    本季分部收入為 4.76 億美元,而去年同期為 4.37 億美元,反映了先前提到的產量增加以及全球製造業務的改善。截至 6 月 30 日的六個月內,自由現金流從上年的 1.78 億美元增加到 3.87 億美元,反映出收入增加和資本支出減少。該公司在前六個月向股東返還了 2.69 億美元。

  • The company had a very strong quarter and first half with record segment income, adjusted EBITDA and free cash flow. We're mindful of the potential impacts of tariffs that tariffs may have on the consumer and industrial activity. Considering the strong first half and the potential impacts from tariffs, we're raising our guidance for the full year adjusted EPS to $7.10 a share to $7.50 a share and project the third quarter adjusted EBITDA to be in the range of $1.95 a share to $2.05 per share.

    該公司本季和上半年表現非常強勁,分部營收、調整後 EBITDA 和自由現金流均創歷史新高。我們注意到關稅可能對消費者和工業活動的潛在影響。考慮到上半年的強勁表現以及關稅的潛在影響,我們將全年調整後每股收益預期上調至每股 7.10 美元至每股 7.50 美元,並預計第三季度調整後 EBITDA 將在每股 1.95 美元至每股 2.05 美元之間。

  • Our adjusted earnings guidance for the full year includes the following assumptions: We expect net interest expense of approximately $360 million; exchange rates assume the US dollar at an average of $1.10 to the euro; full year tax rate of 25%; depreciation of approximately $310 million; noncontrolling interest to be approximately $160 million; dividends to noncontrolling interest are expected to be approximately $140 million.

    我們對全年調整後的獲利預期包括以下假設:我們預期淨利息支出約為 3.6 億美元;匯率假設美元兌歐元平均匯率為 1.10 美元;全年稅率為 25%;折舊約為 3.1 億美元;非控制權益約為 1.6 億美元;預計非控股權益的股息約為 1.4 億美元。

  • Our estimate for 2025 full year adjusted free cash flow is now approximately $900 million after $450 million of capital spending. And at the end of 2025, we expect net leverage to be approximately 2.5 times.

    在資本支出 4.5 億美元後,我們預計 2025 年全年調整後自由現金流約為 9 億美元。到2025年底,我們預計淨槓桿率約為2.5倍。

  • With that, I'll turn the call over to Tim.

    說完這些,我會把電話轉給提姆。

  • Timothy Donahue - Chairman of the Board, President, Chief Executive Officer

    Timothy Donahue - Chairman of the Board, President, Chief Executive Officer

  • Thank you, Kevin, and good morning to everyone. Some brief comments, and then we'll open the call to questions. As Kevin just summarized and is reflected in last night's earnings release, second quarter performance came in better than anticipated. Global Beverage segment income advanced 9% in the quarter after a 21% improvement in the prior year second quarter.

    謝謝你,凱文,大家早安。一些簡短的評論,然後我們將開始提問。正如凱文剛剛總結的並反映在昨晚的收益報告中,第二季的業績好於預期。全球飲料部門營收繼去年第二季成長 21% 之後,本季又成長 9%。

  • Strong global beverage and North American food results, combined with lower capital expenditures resulted in higher second quarter free cash flow, driving net leverage below the first quarter level. Americas Beverage reported a 10% increase in segment income with shipment gains noted in both North America and Brazil.

    全球飲料和北美食品業績強勁,加上資本支出降低,導致第二季自由現金流增加,使淨槓桿率低於第一季水準。美洲飲料部門報告稱,其部門收入增加了 10%,北美和巴西的出貨量均有所成長。

  • Shipments in North America advanced 1% as expected, following a 9% gain in the prior year second quarter, while in Brazil, demand led to 2% growth after a 12% increase last year. Volume growth continues to compound, leading to high utilization across a well-performing plant network. And as stated previously, we expect little direct tariff impact to this business.

    北美地區的出貨量繼去年第二季成長 9% 之後,如預期成長了 1%,而巴西的出貨量繼去年成長 12% 之後,又因需求強勁成長了 2%。產量持續成長,導致整個表現良好的工廠網路利用率很高。正如之前所述,我們預計關稅對這項業務的直接影響很小。

  • Across European Beverage, unit volumes advanced 6%, following 7% growth in the prior year, leading to another quarter of record income. Growth was noted throughout each region of the segment, that is Northern and Southern Europe and also across the Gulf states. As in the Americas, we expect little direct tariff impact to the business.

    在整個歐洲飲料產業,銷量繼上年成長 7% 之後,又成長了 6%,再次創下季度營收新高。該領域各個地區,即北歐、南歐以及海灣國家,都出現了成長。與美洲一樣,我們預期關稅對業務的直接影響很小。

  • Income in Asia Pacific declined as Southeast Asian market volumes were down high single digits to the prior year, the impact of tariffs on various Asian industries ultimately impacting consumer confidence and buying power. Despite weak end markets, the business continues to operate well with income exceeding 19% to net sales in the quarter.

    由於東南亞市場銷售量較前一年下降了個位數,亞太地區的收入也出現下降,關稅對亞洲各行業的影響最終影響了消費者信心和購買力。儘管終端市場疲軟,但該業務繼續運作良好,本季營收佔淨銷售額的 19% 以上。

  • Increased shipments of steel and plastic strap combined with savings from ongoing cost programs almost entirely offset the impact of lower shipments in the equipment and tools business. Segment income remained relatively flat to the prior year despite continuing soft industrial demand.

    鋼材和塑膠帶出貨量的增加,加上正在進行的成本計畫帶來的節省,幾乎完全抵消了設備和工具業務出貨量下降的影響。儘管工業需求持續疲軟,但該部門營收與前一年相比仍保持相對穩定。

  • And within the transit business, we still remain cautious as to the impact that tariffs may have and update the potential tariff effect as follows: the potential exposure is estimated to be approximately $25 million with direct and indirect exposures of approximately $10 million and $15 million, respectively, and these estimates are included in the revised guidance that Kevin has provided.

    在運輸業務中,我們仍然對關稅可能產生的影響保持謹慎,並將潛在關稅影響更新如下:潛在風險敞口估計約為 2500 萬美元,直接和間接風險敞口分別約為 1000 萬美元和 1500 萬美元,這些估計值都包含在 Kevin 提供的修訂指南中。

  • North American food demand increased 9% in the second quarter, principally a result of exceptionally strong vegetable volumes. And when combined with better results in closures, income in the other segment improved by 150% in the quarter. In summary, we had another very strong quarter.

    北美食品需求在第二季成長了 9%,這主要得益於蔬菜產量異常強勁。加上更好的關閉業績,本季其他部門的收入成長了 150%。總而言之,我們又度過了一個非常強勁的季度。

  • Segment income improved $39 million or 9% and for the six months is up $129 million. Trailing 12 months EBITDA is now approaching $2.1 billion. Combined Global Beverage segment income was up 8% in the second quarter. North American food volumes first led by Pet Foods in the first quarter and now vegetables in the second quarter reflects the diversity of our food business.

    該部門收入增加了 3,900 萬美元,增幅為 9%,六個月累計增加了 1.29 億美元。過去 12 個月的 EBITDA 現已接近 21 億美元。第二季全球飲料部門綜合營收成長 8%。北美食品銷售在第一季首先由寵物食品領先,而第二季則由蔬菜領先,這反映了我們食品業務的多樣性。

  • As Kevin provided to you, the adjusted earnings per share guidance range now sits $0.50 a share above the initial guidance that we provided and free cash flow is now estimated at $900 million. The balance sheet is healthy, and it allows for continued return of cash to shareholders.

    正如凱文向您提供的,調整後的每股收益指引範圍現在比我們提供的初始指引高出 0.50 美元,自由現金流現在估計為 9 億美元。資產負債表健康,可以持續向股東返還現金。

  • Of course, none of this would be possible without the efforts of the entire Crown family, and we thank them for their dedication in fulfilling the company's mission of outstanding service to the brands we partner with.

    當然,如果沒有整個 Crown 家族的努力,這一切都不可能實現,我們感謝他們致力於履行公司為合作品牌提供卓越服務的使命。

  • And with that, El, we are now ready to take questions.

    埃爾,現在我們可以回答問題了。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • (Operator Instructions)

    (操作員指示)

  • Anthony Pettinari, Citigroup.

    花旗集團的安東尼佩蒂納裡。

  • Anthony Pettinari - Analyst

    Anthony Pettinari - Analyst

  • Good morning. Your 3Q guidance implies EPS, I think, kind of flattish year-over-year. Can you talk about expectations for the segments for 3Q or trends at a high level? And I guess, specifically, Americas has driven kind of your growth year-to-date, but I think you have a pretty challenging comp maybe all-time high EBIT in 3Q. So just how you expect the segments to perform?

    早安.我認為,您的第三季指引意味著每股收益與去年同期相比持平。您能否談談對第三季各部門的期望或整體趨勢?我想,具體來說,美洲市場推動了你們今年迄今為止的成長,但我認為你們的競爭相當有挑戰性,第三季的息稅前利潤可能創歷史新高。那麼您預計這些部分的表現會是如何呢?

  • Timothy Donahue - Chairman of the Board, President, Chief Executive Officer

    Timothy Donahue - Chairman of the Board, President, Chief Executive Officer

  • Yes, it's a very good question. The third quarter last year, Anthony, and the second half of last year was exceptionally strong. I think on a combined basis, I want to say the EBITDA was like $1.5 billion in the second half last year. And as you rightly point out, within the Americas Beverage segment, I see the number here now, we had $280 million in the third and $275 million in the fourth quarter of segment income last year. So as you say, the comp is challenging.

    是的,這是一個非常好的問題。安東尼去年第三季和去年下半年表現異常強勁。我認為,從總體來看,去年下半年的 EBITDA 約為 15 億美元。正如您正確指出的那樣,在美洲飲料部門,我現在看到的數字是,去年第三季度我們的部門收入為 2.8 億美元,第四季度為 2.75 億美元。正如你所說,比賽充滿挑戰。

  • Notwithstanding a challenging comp, we think we can hopefully do a little better than that. And -- but I think what's likely to happen is that we'll continue to see improvement in European beverage and in North American food. And maybe the Americas beverage business will be at or around or plus or minus $5 million to that number last year, we'll see how it manifests itself.

    儘管競爭十分激烈,但我們認為我們有望做得更好。而且——但我認為可能會發生的是,我們將繼續看到歐洲飲料和北美食品的改善。也許美洲飲料業務的銷售額將與去年持平或接近,或與去年持平或下降 500 萬美元,我們將拭目以待。

  • But I'm looking at volume performance -- last year, I think in the third quarter, I think North American volumes were up 5%. So we did state from the beginning of this year that we thought North American volumes after two successive years of exceptionally strong volume performance. If we go back to 2023, third quarter, North American volume was up 12.5%.

    但我正在關注銷量表現——去年,我認為在第三季度,北美銷量成長了 5%。因此,我們從今年年初就表示,我們認為北美的銷售在連續兩年表現異常強勁之後。如果我們回顧 2023 年第三季度,北美銷量成長了 12.5%。

  • Last year, it was up 5% on top of that, and what we've said from the beginning of this year is this year would be one of those years where we're in the zero to 2% range, and I think 1% in the second quarter is where we came out, and we'll see how the third quarter comes out.

    去年,它在此基礎上上漲了 5%,我們從今年年初就說過,今年的成長率將會在 0 到 2% 的範圍內,我認為第二季的成長率會是 1%,我們再看看第三季的情況。

  • But notwithstanding that, certainly challenging comps, but performance -- the businesses are performing well. The plants are performing well. The company has made a significant step change in earnings and EBITDA over the last couple of years.

    但儘管如此,與競爭對手相比確實存在挑戰,但業績表現良好。這些植物長得很好。過去幾年,該公司的獲利和 EBITDA 取得了顯著的變化。

  • Certainly, on a year-to-date basis this year, we're up about $130 million in EBITDA and or $130 million in segment income, and that comes on the heels of probably close to $100 million the previous year. So step change that we're managing to hold on to.

    當然,從今年年初至今的數據來看,我們的 EBITDA 和分部收入分別成長了約 1.3 億美元和 1.3 億美元,而去年我們的分部營收可能接近 1 億美元。因此,我們正在努力堅持這一步改變。

  • Anthony Pettinari - Analyst

    Anthony Pettinari - Analyst

  • Got it. That's very helpful. And then just on nonreportable. I mean it's been up pretty significantly year-over-year for the last three quarters. You talked about the vegetable strength. Can you talk just maybe at a high level about the strength in nonreportable if there's any kind of pull forward around tariffs? And just second half, how you think about the comps?

    知道了。這非常有幫助。然後只是不可報告的。我的意思是,過去三個季度,它的同比增長相當顯著。您談到了植物的力量。如果關稅有任何上調,您能否從高層次談談非報告貨幣的強勢?那麼下半場,您如何看待比較結果?

  • Timothy Donahue - Chairman of the Board, President, Chief Executive Officer

    Timothy Donahue - Chairman of the Board, President, Chief Executive Officer

  • Maybe there's a little pull forward. But I think what we're seeing here is the -- the impact of some of the investment we've made in the North American food business over the last couple of years, combined with -- let's be honest, it's a relatively easy comp against last year, right?

    或許有一點向前的拉力。但我認為,我們在這裡看到的是——過去幾年我們在北美食品業務上進行的一些投資的影響,再加上——說實話,與去年相比,這是一個相對容易的比較,對吧?

  • And I think the third quarter last year was probably -- will probably be an easy comp. Fourth quarter gets a little more challenging. But you've got an easy comp for the first three quarters this year. You've got the results of some capital we invested the last couple of years.

    我認為去年第三季可能比較輕鬆。第四季變得更具挑戰性。但今年前三個季度的業績比較輕鬆。您已經看到了我們過去幾年投資的一些資本的成果。

  • I don't want to say that perhaps we're seeing the initiation or we're inside already the period in which people stretch their dollars are stretched, and they're becoming a little bit more cautious with their dollars and they're consuming more at home as opposed to going out.

    我不想說我們可能正處於一個開始階段,或者我們已經進入了一個人們精打細算的時期,他們在花錢方面變得更加謹慎,在家裡消費更多,而不是外出消費。

  • Perhaps some of that's going on. On the other side of it, we have another pretty important business in there, and that's the beverage can equipment business, whereby we make equipment for beverage can manufacturing and we are starting to see some green shoots there as people get more comfortable with the ongoing demand globally for more beverage cans and the need for more equipment from time to time.

    也許有些情況正在發生。另一方面,我們還有另一個非常重要的業務,那就是飲料罐設備業務,我們生產用於飲料罐製造的設備,隨著人們越來越適應全球對更多飲料罐的持續需求以及不時對更多設備的需求,我們開始看到一些復甦的跡象。

  • Anthony Pettinari - Analyst

    Anthony Pettinari - Analyst

  • That's very helpful. I'll turn it over.

    這非常有幫助。我把它翻過來。

  • Timothy Donahue - Chairman of the Board, President, Chief Executive Officer

    Timothy Donahue - Chairman of the Board, President, Chief Executive Officer

  • Thank you.

    謝謝。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Chris Parkinson, Wolfe Research.

    克里斯帕金森,沃爾夫研究公司。

  • Chris Parkinson - Equity Analyst

    Chris Parkinson - Equity Analyst

  • Great, thank you so much, Tim. Could you just talk a little bit about your conversations with customers just given some perhaps unexpected tightness in the markets, particularly in Europe and just how that's ultimately going to flow into your intermediate to long-term outlooks versus perhaps what were some prior concerns towards the end of 2024 and early '25?

    太好了,非常感謝,提姆。鑑於市場(尤其是歐洲)可能會出現一些意外的緊張局面,您能否簡單談談您與客戶的對話,以及這種緊張局面最終將如何影響您的中長期展望,與 2024 年底和 2025 年初的一些擔憂相比?

  • Thank you.

    謝謝。

  • Timothy Donahue - Chairman of the Board, President, Chief Executive Officer

    Timothy Donahue - Chairman of the Board, President, Chief Executive Officer

  • Yes. I think specific to Europe, I think they still remain bullish on their need for more cans intermediate and long term as their businesses continue to grow importantly. And number two, the European markets -- it's a variety of markets, but the European markets embracing the need for more sustainable packaging, shifting their focus more to the aluminum can as opposed to perhaps some other substrates.

    是的。我認為具體到歐洲,隨著業務的持續成長,我認為他們仍然看好中期和長期對更多罐頭的需求。第二,歐洲市場—它是一個多樣化的市場,但歐洲市場對更永續的包裝的需求,將重點更多地轉移到鋁罐上,而不是其他一些基材上。

  • So I think that is ongoing. There's going to be ups and downs. There may be soft spots. There may be periods in which shipments are a little lower than we would like. There may be periods in which the can industry does not have enough capacity to supply those customers and the demand they have.

    所以我認為這仍在繼續。會有起伏。可能會有軟點。有一段時間,出貨量可能會比我們希望的要低一些。在某些時期,罐頭業可能沒有足夠的產能來滿足這些客戶及其需求。

  • But all in all, really a nice outlook. I'm looking at -- I talked about earlier some of the comparisons to last year, but last year, each quarter was up 7%, 6%, 8%. Full year was 7%, and we're getting pretty nice growth this year on top of those numbers. So again, we're compounding the growth leading to higher utilization.

    但總而言之,這確實是一個美好的前景。我正在看——我之前談到了一些與去年的比較,但去年每個季度都成長了 7%、6%、8%。全年成長率為 7%,今年我們在此基礎上實現了相當不錯的成長。因此,我們再次加速成長,從而提高利用率。

  • And we do have a couple of projects underway in Europe, where we're modernizing -- significantly modernizing and upgrading one facility in Greece, and we're looking at potentially the addition of a second line somewhere else in Southern Europe. So all in, feeling really good about Europe.

    我們確實在歐洲進行了幾個項目,我們正在對希臘的一個工廠進行現代化改造——大規模的現代化和升級,我們正在考慮在南歐的其他地方增加第二條生產線。總而言之,我對歐洲的感覺非常好。

  • And I know you've talked to Tom Fisher over the years, and Tom would tell you on a 15- or 20-year CAGR Europe has always exhibited somewhere between 3% and 5%, which is quite tremendous growth when you consider an industry as I've got to be careful how I term this Kevin will hit me with a pen here.

    我知道這些年來你一直與湯姆·費舍爾交談,湯姆會告訴你,在 15 年或 20 年的時間裡,歐洲的複合年增長率一直保持在 3% 到 5% 之間,當你考慮到一個行業時,這是一個相當大的增長,我必須小心我如何稱呼這個,凱文會在這裡用筆打我。

  • But I don't want to call it mundane, but an issue is -- an industry is simple as the can industry, if you will, and now everybody else is mad at me, but 3% to 5% growth every year for 15 years is that's not too bad, so.

    但我不想稱其為平凡,但問題是——如果你願意的話,一個行業就像罐頭行業一樣簡單,現在其他人都對我很生氣,但 15 年來每年 3% 到 5% 的增長率還不算太糟糕,所以。

  • Chris Parkinson - Equity Analyst

    Chris Parkinson - Equity Analyst

  • That's helpful. And then just when we take a step back, if you could briefly just hit on how we should be thinking about your different businesses on the bev can side in the Americas, kind of the puts and takes for 2Q? And how we should be thinking about the growth by substrate into the second half.

    這很有幫助。然後,當我們退一步思考時,您是否可以簡單談談我們應該如何看待您在美洲的飲料罐方面的不同業務,以及第二季度的收益和利弊?以及我們應該如何看待下半年基質的成長。

  • Just are we still in that the top end of that 1% to 3% range? Or I know 2Q is in line with your expectations, but just how should we be thinking about that just given the variance of your year-on-year comps versus '24? Any guidance there would be helpful.

    我們是否仍處於 1% 至 3% 範圍的頂端?或者我知道第二季符合您的預期,但考慮到您與 24 年同期相比的同比差異,我們應該如何考慮這一點?任何指導都會有幫助。

  • Thank you.

    謝謝。

  • Timothy Donahue - Chairman of the Board, President, Chief Executive Officer

    Timothy Donahue - Chairman of the Board, President, Chief Executive Officer

  • I think what we've baked in for the back half of the year is zero to one in North America and perhaps relatively flattish in Brazil as well, and we've got a decline baked into Mexico. It does appear that the Mexican market is slowing right now.

    我認為,我們已經預料到今年下半年北美的銷售額將為零到一,巴西的銷售額可能也相對持平,而墨西哥的銷售額則出現下滑。目前看來墨西哥市場確實正在放緩。

  • And perhaps that has something to do with tariffs or more specifically, the economy in Mexico where consumer confidence around the impact of tariffs on various industries in Mexico. But again, it's a very diverse business. We operate in the Americas Beverage segment.

    這可能與關稅有關,或者更具體地說,與墨西哥的經濟有關,消費者對關稅對墨西哥各行業的影響的信心也有關。但同樣,這是一個非常多元化的行業。我們的業務涉及美洲飲料領域。

  • It feels like segment income is going to be over $1 billion this year after coming close last year. And -- not everything is going to go up all the time, but we keep performing well in the plants with high efficiency, lowering spoilage, more productive and driving more earnings despite what happens in the markets around us.

    感覺該部門的收入在去年接近 10 億美元之後,今年將超過 10 億美元。而且——並不是所有的東西都會一直上漲,但無論我們周圍的市場發生什麼,我們的工廠都能保持高效率、降低損耗、提高生產力並帶來更多收益,表現良好。

  • Chris Parkinson - Equity Analyst

    Chris Parkinson - Equity Analyst

  • Great color. Thank you.

    顏色很棒。謝謝。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • George Staphos, Bank of America.

    美國銀行的喬治‧斯塔福斯 (George Staphos)。

  • George Staphos - Analyst

    George Staphos - Analyst

  • Hi everyone, good morning. Hope you're doing well. Hey tim. So three questions for you. I'll ask them in sequence just to make it easy for everybody else's time wise. So number one, can you give us a bit more color on what was behind the restructuring charge for the quarter? I think it was around $40 million. If you called it out and I missed it, I apologize, if not, if you could give us a bit more color there.

    大家好,早安。希望你一切都好。嘿,提姆。所以我問你三個問題。我會按順序詢問他們,以便節省其他人的時間。那麼第一點,您能否向我們詳細介紹本季重組費用背後的原因?我認為大約是 4000 萬美元。如果您說出來而我沒注意到,我深感抱歉;如果沒有,您能否為我們提供更多細節。

  • Secondly, you did better than we were expecting in Signode and you gave us some good color there. What are the prospects that you can now hold that level of EBIT into 3Q into 4Q. In some ways, you weathered the worst of the challenges and you're performing at a little bit higher level than we would have expected either way. What's the outlook there? And then kind of the question from last quarter, the volumes in beverage can remain very strong, certainly into Europe.

    其次,你在 Signode 中的表現超出了我們的預期,並且為我們帶來了一些精彩的表演。您現在能否將這一息稅前利潤水準保持到第三季和第四季?從某種程度上來說,你們經歷了最嚴峻的挑戰,而且你們的表現比我們預期的要高一些。那裡的前景如何?然後回到上個季度的問題,飲料銷售可以保持非常強勁,尤其是在歐洲。

  • I know you said you're not seeing that much of an effect. But are you seeing any impact at all in terms of tariffs? And then at some point, with on the other side of the hill, maybe destocking after the aluminum risk maybe go away or the tire risk go away. So Signode restructuring and bev can any deceleration into 2H because of destocking things? Thanks, and good luck in the quarter.

    我知道您說過您沒有看到太大的效果。但您是否看到關稅方面有任何影響?然後在某個時候,在山的另一邊,也許在鋁風險或輪胎風險消失後就會去庫存。那麼,Signode 重組和 bev 是否會因為去庫存而導致下半年減速?謝謝,祝本季好運。

  • Timothy Donahue - Chairman of the Board, President, Chief Executive Officer

    Timothy Donahue - Chairman of the Board, President, Chief Executive Officer

  • Yes. So the charge we took for restructuring two principal items. The biggest being, we wrote down the value of -- the carrying value of the assets in one of the Chinese plants to what we're required to do under accounting principles just given expected cash flows in the business in the near term.

    是的。因此,我們承擔了重組兩項主要項目的費用。最大的問題是,我們根據會計原則,根據短期業務的預期現金流,將一家中國工廠的資產帳面價值減記到我們需要的水平。

  • The second biggest piece is some further severance in Signode above the factory floor just to continue to right size what we believe is necessary to support a manufacturing business from the business we acquired several years ago. Signode -- I'm sorry, George, remind me the specific question on Signode again.

    第二大塊是 Signode 在工廠車間之上的進一步分離,只是為了繼續調整我們認為從幾年前收購的業務中支持製造業務所必需的規模。Signode——抱歉,喬治,請再次提醒我有關 Signode 的具體問題。

  • George Staphos - Analyst

    George Staphos - Analyst

  • And it ties pretty well to your comment just before. You did better than expected in Signode, can you carry that forward? And then within the restructuring you took, how much earnings improvement did you gain from that within Signode?

    這與您之前的評論非常吻合。你在 Signode 的表現比預期好,你能繼續保持這種勢頭嗎?那麼,在您進行的重組中,Signode 的獲利成長了多少?

  • Timothy Donahue - Chairman of the Board, President, Chief Executive Officer

    Timothy Donahue - Chairman of the Board, President, Chief Executive Officer

  • The restructuring we just announced, we'll get that benefit maybe starting the end of this year and the next year. My hope is that we hold that level in the third quarter. The second quarter is generally the largest quarter for Signode then the third quarter, then the fourth and the first. So second quarter -- I'm hopeful we hold it in the third quarter depending on impact of tariffs, which we've baked in.

    我們剛剛宣布的重組可能會在今年年底或明年開始帶來好處。我希望我們在第三季保持這一水平。對於 Signode 來說,第二季通常是最大的季度,然後是第三、第四季和第一季。因此,第二季度——我希望我們能在第三季度保持這一水平,這取決於我們已經考慮到的關稅的影響。

  • And in the fourth quarter, again, we -- there's a -- as you can tell by the guidance we gave you, the widest part of the range given the last six months guidance is Q4, and that's really a lot to do with tariff uncertainty. I don't want to say exposure, but I would say tariff uncertainty across that business, specifically in the later third, early fourth quarter.

    在第四季度,正如您從我們提供的指導中看到的那樣,過去六個月的指導中範圍最廣的部分是第四季度,這實際上與關稅不確定性有很大關係。我不想說風險敞口,但我想說的是整個業務的關稅不確定性,特別是在第三季末和第四季初。

  • So I think on a year-over-year basis, are we able to match in the third and fourth quarter or do a little better in the third and fourth quarter in transit compared to what we did last year? Yes, plus or minus one or two, I think we're going to be relatively plus or minus one or two and maybe we do a little better. And then George, I'm getting old. So like you, you're going to have to remind me a third question.

    因此,我認為與去年同期相比,我們是否能夠在第三季度和第四季度保持同樣的水平,或者與去年相比,我們在第三季度和第四季度的運輸方面做得更好一些?是的,加減一兩個,我認為我們會相對加減一兩個,也許我們會做得更好一點。喬治,我老了。所以像你一樣,你必須提醒我第三個問題。

  • George Staphos - Analyst

    George Staphos - Analyst

  • Watch that, Tim. Watch that. So no, I was just saying, look, especially within Europe, your volumes are over mid-single digits. Is there anything, again, that you're gleaning from your customers' order patterns that suggest things are starting to decelerate now that we maybe through the worst fingers crossed of the tariff risks?

    小心,蒂姆。看那個。所以不,我只是說,看,特別是在歐洲,你們的交易量超過了中等個位數。再說一次,從客戶的訂單模式中,您是否發現有什麼跡象表明,現在我們可能已經度過了關稅風險最糟糕的時期,事情開始放緩了?

  • Or what are your customers saying about their need to keep buying and what's the outlook into next year? Any destocking that you're seeing right now? Thanks, I'll turn it over.

    或者您的客戶對他們繼續購買的需求有何看法以及明年的前景?現在您看到任何去庫存現象嗎?謝謝,我會轉過來的。

  • Timothy Donahue - Chairman of the Board, President, Chief Executive Officer

    Timothy Donahue - Chairman of the Board, President, Chief Executive Officer

  • So no destocking, I don't really see any direct tariff impact in Europe. What we do continually see in Europe, whether you're talking about Germany, France, some of the other big economies in Europe is a continuing contraction in the industrial economies and so much of the -- so many of the jobs in Germany are related to industrial production.

    因此,沒有去庫存,我實際上沒有看到歐洲受到任何直接的關稅影響。我們在歐洲不斷看到的是,無論是德國、法國或歐洲其他一些大型經濟體,工業經濟都在持續萎縮,而德國的許多工作都與工業生產有關。

  • So there is a concern longer term that within the European Union, they don't begin to address some fundamental economic realities that they're going to continue to just hover slightly below the contraction expansion line with respect to industrial production. We'd like to see some industrial production return.

    因此,長期來看,人們擔心歐盟內部不會開始解決一些基本的經濟現實問題,工業生產的水平將繼續徘徊在略低於收縮擴張線的水平。我們希望看到工業生產有所恢復。

  • Now the challenge for anybody is when you're selling into contracting economies eventually, the consumers become very concerned with their bank account level and the prospects of having a job next week versus not having a job. We don't see that yet in the can business.

    現在任何人面臨的挑戰是,當你最終向萎縮的經濟體銷售產品時,消費者會非常關心他們的銀行帳戶水平以及下週是否有工作的前景。在罐頭行業我們還沒有看到這種情況。

  • Fortunately, for the can business, we are well positioned in terms of substrate mix for our end markets and the need for our customers to continue to try to achieve the goals they've established for net carbon, net zero and everything else, whether it's 2030 or 2040. And so we're well positioned for that, and we seem to be the product that helps them get there the fastest. But we're always mindful of that.

    幸運的是,對於罐頭業務而言,我們在終端市場的基材組合方面處於有利地位,並且我們的客戶需要繼續努力實現他們為淨碳、淨零和其他一切設定的目標,無論是 2030 年還是 2040 年。因此,我們已做好充分準備,我們的產品似乎能夠幫助他們最快實現這一目標。但我們始終牢記這一點。

  • George Staphos - Analyst

    George Staphos - Analyst

  • Thank you, Tim. Good luck in the quarter.

    謝謝你,提姆。祝本季好運。

  • Timothy Donahue - Chairman of the Board, President, Chief Executive Officer

    Timothy Donahue - Chairman of the Board, President, Chief Executive Officer

  • Thank you, George.

    謝謝你,喬治。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Philip Ng, Jefferies.

    傑富瑞的 Philip Ng。

  • Philip Ng - Analyst

    Philip Ng - Analyst

  • Hey guys, Tim, strong quarter, a strong first half for share. I guess I'm curious in terms of what your customers are saying in North America. Tough comps aside, certainly, a lot of your beverage customers are dealing with tariffs on the aluminum side, potentially sugarcane dynamics versus HFCS. How are the kind of behaving in this backdrop? Are they continuing to promote?

    嘿,大家好,提姆,本季表現強勁,上半年的市佔率也十分強勁。我想我很好奇你們在北美的客戶是怎麼說的。除了艱難的競爭之外,當然,許多飲料客戶都在應對鋁關稅,以及甘蔗與高果糖漿之間的潛在動態。在這種背景下,人們的行為是怎麼樣的?他們還在繼續推廣嗎?

  • What do they tell you in terms of how the order patterns are kind of shaping up? I'm most curious about North America and what you're seeing on Brazil just because there's a lot of noise with tariffs around that market as well.

    他們會告訴您訂單模式如何形成嗎?我最感興趣的是北美以及巴西的情況,因為該市場在關稅方面也存在著許多爭議。

  • Timothy Donahue - Chairman of the Board, President, Chief Executive Officer

    Timothy Donahue - Chairman of the Board, President, Chief Executive Officer

  • Yes. Listen, I think if you consider the Midwest premium, the all-in cost of aluminum per ton is probably close to an all-time high. We certainly, as an industry, certainly at Crown, we don't believe we can afford to absorb any of that. Fortunately for us, our contracts allow for the pass-through. I'm sure our customers don't believe they can afford to absorb it.

    是的。聽著,我認為如果考慮到中西部地區的溢價,每噸鋁的總成本可能接近歷史最高水平。作為一個產業,尤其是在皇冠集團,我們當然不認為我們能夠承受任何這樣的後果。對我們來說幸運的是,我們的合約允許這種傳遞。我確信我們的客戶不相信他們能夠承受這筆損失。

  • So ultimately, decisions made by governments and politicians are ultimately borne the cost of that is borne by the consumer. And to date, we've not seen the consumer back off the purchase of beverage cans regardless of what product they want to consume. And so the beverage can continues to perform better than other substrates in an environment that feels like we're going to get a little bit of inflation.

    因此,最終,政府和政客所做的決定的成本將由消費者承擔。到目前為止,無論消費者想要消費什麼產品,我們還沒有看到他們放棄購買罐裝飲料。因此,在感覺通貨膨脹即將來臨的環境下,飲料罐的表現仍優於其他基材。

  • Having said that, the customers are promoting. They're promoting into an increasing cost environment, I don't specifically know their hedge patterns as I sit here today and where their cost model sits, but eventually, they're going to be hit with higher cost unless that Midwest premium comes down.

    話雖如此,顧客們正在推銷。他們正在向成本不斷增加的環境推廣,今天我坐在這裡,並不特別了解他們的對沖模式以及他們的成本模型,但最終,除非中西部地區的溢價下降,否則他們將面臨更高的成本。

  • But I would say, Phil, that we're not hearing anything dramatically concerning our guidance to you at the beginning of the year and remains that we thought we'd be somewhere in the zero to 2% range. I think the market probably doing better than that as I sit here today.

    但菲爾,我想說的是,我們並沒有聽到任何有關我們年初給您的指導的重大消息,我們仍然認為我們的增長率將在 0 到 2% 的範圍內。我認為今天市場表現可能會比這更好。

  • If you ask me how I think the market did in North America, maybe it did 3% to 3.5% in the second quarter. I don't know. We don't get those numbers any longer, but it does feel like the market with the promotion of cans and some of the other data we're seeing that the market was pretty strong in Q2.

    如果你問我對北美市場表現的看法,那麼我認為第二季北美市場可能成長了 3% 到 3.5%。我不知道。我們不再獲得這些數字,但確實感覺市場隨著罐頭的推廣和我們看到的一些其他數據在第二季度相當強勁。

  • Now we'll see how Q3 goes. But they're in the process of -- they've already done it. They're reevaluating their inventory levels after the July 4 holiday going into Labor Day. And it looks like it's going to be a decent summer. And whether we're minus one, plus one, whether the market is plus three or plus two, it's off these much higher levels that we've had over the last couple of years, this all pretty strong sign.

    現在我們來看看第三季的進展。但他們正在進行中——他們已經完成了。他們正在重新評估 7 月 4 日假期後和勞動節期間的庫存水準。看起來這個夏天將會是個不錯的夏天。無論我們是下跌一分還是上漲一分,無論市場上漲三分還是兩分,它都脫離了過去幾年的較高水平,這都是相當強勁的信號。

  • Philip Ng - Analyst

    Philip Ng - Analyst

  • Do have any color on how you're thinking about Brazil just given all the tariff noise there?

    鑑於巴西的關稅風波,您對巴西有什麼看法?

  • Timothy Donahue - Chairman of the Board, President, Chief Executive Officer

    Timothy Donahue - Chairman of the Board, President, Chief Executive Officer

  • Yes. Listen, I think Brazil, the situation is never as strong for the consumer as it is in North America, and we'll see how the consumer does. More importantly, we'll see how customers move some business around from supplier to supplier. Sometimes, one supplier can be out of balance to their mix with certain customers.

    是的。聽著,我認為巴西的消費者狀況從來沒有像北美那麼強勁,我們將看看消費者的表現如何。更重要的是,我們將看到客戶如何在供應商之間轉移業務。有時,一個供應商與某些客戶的組合可能會失去平衡。

  • If for whatever reason, we supply more or less in the first half of the year, maybe we supply more or less or more in the second half of the year just so the customer can balance out, and we'll see how that goes. But I would say that maybe Q3, a softer quarter in Brazil, maybe that's slightly down and -- and in Q4, which is really important, we're expecting Q4 to be a little bit better than Q4 last year.

    如果出於某種原因,我們在上半年供應量增加或減少,那麼也許我們在下半年供應量會增加、減少或增加,以便客戶能夠平衡,我們會看看情況如何。但我想說,也許第三季度,巴西的銷售會比較疲軟,可能會略有下降——而在第四季度,這一點非常重要,我們預計第四季度的表現會比去年第四季略好一些。

  • Philip Ng - Analyst

    Philip Ng - Analyst

  • Okay. And then you're in a great spot. I mean, balance sheet leverage, is that the low end of your -- I mean, closer to a long-term target, getting a lot of free cash flow. How would you prioritize capital deployment in the next few years? What are some of the best opportunities when you kind of rank the buybacks, capital projects even perhaps larger M&A? Any color would be helpful.

    好的。那麼你就處於一個很好的位置。我的意思是,資產負債表槓桿率是你的低端——我的意思是,更接近長期目標,獲得大量自由現金流。未來幾年,您將如何優先安排資本部署?當您對回購、資本項目甚至更大規模的併購進行排名時,哪些是最好的機會?任何顏色都會有幫助。

  • Timothy Donahue - Chairman of the Board, President, Chief Executive Officer

    Timothy Donahue - Chairman of the Board, President, Chief Executive Officer

  • Well, I think the number one goal is obviously to increase the return to shareholders. But before you get there, you've got to service your customers and you've got to service your customer base, and you've got to take advantage of opportunities to grow your business. And so we're always going to look at the opportunities to grow our business subject to adequate returns project by project. So that would be number one.

    嗯,我認為首要目標顯然是增加股東回報。但在實現這一目標之前,您必須先為您的客戶提供服務,您必須先為您的客戶群提供服務,您必須先利用機會來發展您的業務。因此,我們將始終尋找機會,透過每個專案獲得足夠的回報來發展我們的業務。所以這是第一位的。

  • Beyond that, as you rightly point out, whether we can get below the 2.5 times by the end of this year, Kevin gave you $900 million, we're at short of $400 million. So if you take that $500 million and reduce the debt with today's EBITDA, you get well below 2.5 times.

    除此之外,正如您正確指出的那樣,無論我們能否在今年年底前將比率降至 2.5 倍以下,凱文給了您 9 億美元,我們還差 4 億美元。因此,如果您拿出這 5 億美元並用今天的 EBITDA 減少債務,那麼您獲得的收益將遠低於 2.5 倍。

  • We don't really need to get there this year. So I do believe that over time, the long-term target is met with growth in EBITDA, and it leaves us a whole lot of money to consider what we're going to do with it. And I think right now, as we've been telling people for the last 6 months, the number one and only priority we see is the return of cash to shareholders.

    我們實際上並不需要今年就到達那裡。因此,我確實相信,隨著時間的推移,長期目標將隨著 EBITDA 的成長而實現,這將給我們留下一大筆錢來考慮如何使用它。我認為現在,正如我們過去 6 個月一直告訴人們的那樣,我們認為的首要和唯一的優先事項是向股東返還現金。

  • Philip Ng - Analyst

    Philip Ng - Analyst

  • Okay excellent. Thank you.

    好的,非常好。謝謝。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Edlain Rodriguez, Mizuho.

    瑞穗的埃德萊恩·羅德里格斯 (Edlain Rodriguez)。

  • Edlain Rodriguez - Analyst

    Edlain Rodriguez - Analyst

  • Thank you. Good morning, everyone. Quick one for me, Tim. So there have been talks of demand softness in many categories here in the US because of the immigration enforcement that's going on. Like what are you hearing from your customers in regards to volume being impacted by that? And how concerned are you with that?

    謝謝。大家早安。提姆,我來快速回答一下。由於正在進行的移民執法,美國許多類別的需求都出現疲軟。您從客戶那裡聽說銷售量受到了什麼影響?您對此有多擔心?

  • Timothy Donahue - Chairman of the Board, President, Chief Executive Officer

    Timothy Donahue - Chairman of the Board, President, Chief Executive Officer

  • Well, we can grind ourselves down to looking at every last detail is the health -- the new health secretaries desire to limit sugar and you can grind yourself down. What seems to be really evident is despite all the noise in the economy, be it political or economical, the can continues to perform exceptionally well. I don't have quarter data for you, but I do have data looking at four weeks ending July 13.

    好吧,我們可以努力關注每一個細節,以確保健康——新任衛生部長希望限製糖的攝入,你可以努力關注自己。顯而易見的是,儘管經濟領域充斥著政治或經濟方面的各種噪音,但罐頭仍然表現得異常出色。我沒有季度數據可以提供給您,但我有截至 7 月 13 日的四周的數據。

  • And total beverage units and cans up 4.5%. CSD is up 5%, beers down, energy is up. So depending on the end market, cans performing really well across all these markets. And some of these end markets are smaller than others. Water and teas and coffees, but ready-to-drink up 1%. So I think we're always mindful of what's going on around us. But we're always certain to understand that a lot of that we cannot control.

    飲料總銷量和罐裝飲料銷量成長 4.5%。碳酸飲料價格上漲 5%,啤酒價格下跌,能源價格上漲。因此,根據最終市場,罐頭在所有這些市場中都表現良好。其中一些終端市場比其他市場規模更小。水、茶和咖啡,但即飲飲料上漲 1%。所以我認為我們總是留意周圍發生的事情。但我們始終確信,很多事情是我們無法控制的。

  • So you work within what you can control and you try to adapt. And the first thing you try to do is keep your cost as low as possible. And you make sure you're -- you have the availability and the willingness and the ability to serve the customers when they need it and how much they need. And I think we've done a very good job doing that over the last couple of years.

    因此,你要在自己能夠控制的範圍內工作,並嘗試去適應。您要做的第一件事就是盡可能降低成本。你要確保你有能力、有意願、有效率地在客戶需要的時候為他們提供服務。我認為過去幾年我們在這方面做得非常好。

  • And -- all of these things, if we're going to get -- if we're going to get hypersensitive around quarter-to-quarter volume or quarter-to-quarter volume, okay, we can do -- earnings, we can do that, if we're going to take a longer-term view as to the health of the can industry and the health of each of the companies in the can industry and the health of our customer base, and most importantly, the health of the can as a product as seen by consumers, then we're going to feel really good about ourselves. And I think that's where we're at right now.

    而且 - 所有這些事情,如果我們要得到 - 如果我們要對季度環比銷量或季度環比銷量高度敏感,好吧,我們可以做到 - 收益,我們可以做到這一點,如果我們要以更長遠的眼光看待罐頭行業的健康狀況以及罐頭行業中每家公司的健康狀況以及我們客戶群的健康狀況,最重要的是,消費者眼中的罐頭產品的健康狀況,我們就會對自己的健康狀況。我認為這就是我們現在的處境。

  • Edlain Rodriguez - Analyst

    Edlain Rodriguez - Analyst

  • No, that makes sense and that's all I have. Thank you.

    不,這很有道理,而且這就是我所知道的全部。謝謝。

  • Timothy Donahue - Chairman of the Board, President, Chief Executive Officer

    Timothy Donahue - Chairman of the Board, President, Chief Executive Officer

  • Thank you very much.

    非常感謝。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Arun Viswanathan, RBC Capital Markets.

    加拿大皇家銀行資本市場 (RBC Capital Markets) 的 Arun Viswanathan。

  • Arun Viswanathan - Analyst

    Arun Viswanathan - Analyst

  • Great, thanks for taking my question. Congrats on the strong results. So I guess my question is around Americas Beverage margins, that was really the biggest source of upside versus our expectations. You've now eclipsed 19% on a segment EBIT margin, and I understand that percent margin is obviously not always the right way to look at things.

    太好了,感謝您回答我的問題。恭喜您取得如此優異的成績。所以我想我的問題是關於美洲飲料利潤率,這確實是超出我們預期的最大上漲來源。現在,您的分部息稅前利潤率已超過 19%,我明白百分比利潤率顯然並不總是看待事物的正確方式。

  • But it does appear that your plants are running really well as your shipment growth moderates maybe year-on-year, do you expect a similar cadence in segment income growth? Or have you -- what else is there more to do to improve the way the plants run? Or are we kind of hitting full learning curve there?

    但看起來你們的工廠運作得非常好,因為你們的出貨量成長可能年比放緩,你們是否預期分部收入成長也會有類似的節奏?或者您還有什麼可以做的來改善工廠的運作方式?或者說我們是否已經到達了學習的頂峰?

  • Timothy Donahue - Chairman of the Board, President, Chief Executive Officer

    Timothy Donahue - Chairman of the Board, President, Chief Executive Officer

  • All right. Excellent question. You're going to give me a chance to almost sound somewhat intelligent. So I think the first thing, most companies in any industry, we all operate from a manufacturing perspective with the notion of continuous improvement, which means there's always something to improve.

    好的。非常好的問題。你會給我一個機會讓我聽起來有點聰明。因此我認為首先,任何行業的大多數公司都是從製造的角度出發,秉持持續改進的理念,這意味著總有需要改進的地方。

  • And you've probably heard us in past years described we categorize our operations in three categories: A, Bs and Cs. And the goal is to work on the Cs and make them the As, and it's a never-ending process. So there's always something to improve.

    您可能在過去幾年中聽過我們描述我們將營運分為三類:A、B 和 C。我們的目標是努力把 C 變成 A,這是一個永無止境的過程。所以總是有一些事情需要改進。

  • From the context of moderating growth, if what you're suggesting is that we had 5% growth last year and only 1% growth this year, should that also reflect a lower earnings or lower margin performance, the answer would be no, because in the absence of adding more capacity, you're utilizing 1% more of the capacity you already have. So your productivity levels need to become that much higher to supply that 1% from the same manufacturing base.

    從成長放緩的背景來看,如果你的意思是,我們去年的成長率為 5%,而今年的成長率僅為 1%,那麼這是否也反映了較低的獲利或較低的利潤率表現,答案是否定的,因為在沒有增加更多產能的情況下,你利用的現有產能僅增加了 1%。因此,您的生產力水平需要提高很多,才能從同一製造基地供應那 1%。

  • So in fact, even with 1% growth, you would expect margin growth, all else being equal. Now the one thing that will move margin -- percentage margins up and down is the pass-through mechanisms we have in our contracts with raw materials. As aluminum gets higher and as our customers' hedging contracts, result in higher aluminum, we start passing through higher aluminum on a one-for-one basis.

    因此事實上,即使成長率只有 1%,在其他條件相同的情況下,你也會預期利潤率會成長。現在,唯一能影響利潤率(百分比利潤率)上升和下降的因素是我們原材料合約中的轉嫁機制。隨著鋁價上漲以及我們客戶的對沖合約導致鋁價上漲,我們開始以一對一的方式轉售鋁價上漲的產品。

  • That will naturally drive margins down. But that's just a function of the denominator becoming larger. And again, as the denominator gets smaller, then the margin grows. That's why we've -- I sometimes don't like the focus in the beverage can business too much on percentage margin. I like to look at absolute margin.

    這自然會降低利潤率。但這只是分母變大的結果。而且,隨著分母變小,差值就會增加。這就是為什麼我們——我有時不喜歡在飲料罐業務中過度關注百分比利潤。我喜歡看絕對邊際。

  • In the transit business, we're highly focused on material margin, and that is the margin we have after direct materials, a different business and a different way of looking at things. But in the beverage business, I hope I answered your question there.

    在運輸業務中,我們高度關注材料利潤,也就是直接材料之後的利潤,這是一種不同的業務,也是一種不同的看待事物的方式。但在飲料業,我希望我能回答你的問題。

  • Arun Viswanathan - Analyst

    Arun Viswanathan - Analyst

  • Yes. No, that's helpful. And I guess, I would have a similar question for Europe. Now Europe seems to be going potentially in a different direction where you still see quite a bit of volume growth. But is there more to do there on the operations side and really move up those percent -- those EBIT dollar margins over time?

    是的。不,這很有幫助。我想,我對歐洲也會有類似的疑問。現在歐洲似乎正朝著不同的方向發展,你仍然會看到相當大的銷售成長。但是在營運方面是否還有更多工作要做,並隨著時間的推移真正提高這些百分比——即息稅前利潤率?

  • And similarly, is there more to do on the capacity side, instead, how would you kind of characterize where you are in your trajectory in Europe margins as well?

    同樣,在產能方面還有更多工作要做嗎?相反,您如何描述您在歐洲利潤率的發展軌跡?

  • Timothy Donahue - Chairman of the Board, President, Chief Executive Officer

    Timothy Donahue - Chairman of the Board, President, Chief Executive Officer

  • Well, I think -- I don't -- a little over 15% last year and this year in the second quarter and maybe even for the full year, we're just short of that. But I don't know how that compares historically, but it feels like it's a higher level than we've had in Europe or one of the higher levels that we've had in Europe over the last 10 or 12 years.

    嗯,我認為——我不這麼認為——去年和今年第二季的成長率都略高於 15%,甚至全年的成長率也略低於這個數字。但我不知道與歷史相比如何,但感覺它比我們在歐洲的水平要高,或者是過去 10 年或 12 年我們在歐洲的水平要高。

  • So performing well. Incredible improvements having been made to the platform or the industrial infrastructure over the last several years, not only the expansion of the footprint, but also within the footprint. And again, as I said earlier, always more to do, always looking to do more, always looking to see how we can improve each factory to get more output out of each factory.

    所以表現良好。在過去的幾年中,平台或工業基礎設施取得了令人難以置信的進步,不僅擴大了足跡,而且足跡內部也得到了改善。正如我之前所說,我們總是有更多的事情要做,總是希望做更多的事情,總是希望了解如何改善每個工廠,以便從每個工廠獲得更多的產出。

  • Maybe there's a little bit more excess capacity and some spots around Europe than we have in the United States. But I think we're pleased with the direction of Europe. And as I said, we're always looking to do better. There's nothing to take out with growth at 5% or 6% every quarter, you're looking for ways to continue to support customers with the existing capacity you have as opposed to adding more capital into your -- to your much more certain that, that added capital would have some new business under contract.

    也許歐洲的過剩產能和一些地點比美國稍微多一些。但我認為我們對歐洲的發展方向感到滿意。正如我所說,我們一直在努力做得更好。每個季度 5% 或 6% 的成長率並沒有什麼意義,您正在尋找方法繼續利用現有能力支持客戶,而不是向您的現有能力注入更多資本——您更確定的是,增加的資本將帶來一些新業務合約。

  • Arun Viswanathan - Analyst

    Arun Viswanathan - Analyst

  • Okay, thanks. And just one more quick one, if I can. Just on free cash flow, you increased the guide there. So are we right to assume that, that would likely go towards capital return as the first priority?

    好的,謝謝。如果可以的話,我再快速問一下。僅在自由現金流方面,您就增加了那裡的指南。那麼,我們是否可以正確地假設,這可能會將資本回報作為首要任務?

  • Kevin Clothier - Chief Financial Officer, Senior Vice President

    Kevin Clothier - Chief Financial Officer, Senior Vice President

  • Yes. So Arun, it's Kevin. Look, we're committed to a long-term leverage target of 2.5 times. The additional cash flow we will look at it in context of the long-term leverage target, and we'll see where we go here. I do think we'll buy back a lot of stock over the next couple of years with free cash flow. So at this point, that's where we're at.

    是的。那麼阿倫,我是凱文。你看,我們致力於實現 2.5 倍的長期槓桿目標。我們將在長期槓桿目標的背景下看待額外的現金流,然後看看我們會走向何方。我確實認為我們將在未來幾年利用自由現金流回購大量股票。所以目前,這就是我們所處的位置。

  • Timothy Donahue - Chairman of the Board, President, Chief Executive Officer

    Timothy Donahue - Chairman of the Board, President, Chief Executive Officer

  • Yes. Arun, just to make it real clear because I think I answered it with Phil. What we see is cash flow that we have after supporting the business needs, debt reduction to a certain level and then return to shareholders. We don't see anything else.

    是的。阿倫,我只是想把這個問題說清楚,因為我認為我已經和菲爾一起回答過這個問題了。我們看到的是支持業務需求、債務減少到一定水準後再返還給股東的現金流。我們沒有看到其他任何東西。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Ghansham Panjabi, R.W. Baird.

    甘沙姆·潘賈比、R.W.貝爾德。

  • Ghansham Panjabi - Senior Research Analyst

    Ghansham Panjabi - Senior Research Analyst

  • Thank you, Alfredo. Good morning, everybody. I guess stepping back and kind of thinking about 2025 as it relates to the beginning of the year, it seems like volumes, in particular, were better than your initial forecast.

    謝謝你,阿爾弗雷多。大家早安。我想,回顧一下,從年初的角度來思考 2025 年,似乎銷量比您最初的預測要好。

  • You called out mix in 2Q, et cetera. But how would you characterize inventory levels along the supply chain in context of the industry being pretty lean and then you have a little bit of better demand dynamics and all these other reasons with promos and hot summer, et cetera. So just give us a sense of inventory levels?

    您在第二季度提到了混合等等。但是在行業相當精簡、需求動態稍好一些以及促銷和炎熱夏季等所有其他原因的背景下,您如何描述供應鏈上的庫存水平。那麼請告訴我們庫存水準怎麼樣?

  • Timothy Donahue - Chairman of the Board, President, Chief Executive Officer

    Timothy Donahue - Chairman of the Board, President, Chief Executive Officer

  • So I can't comment on the other can companies. Generally, our larger customers carry no inventory, they're direct store delivery, right? So the inventory is carried by typically the can companies. I think it's safe to say our inventory level right now is no higher than it was at January 1, which is depending on how strong the third quarter is going to be -- could be somewhat concerning. So we're continuing to run as hard as we can and we need the plants to be as efficient as they can.

    所以我無法對其他罐頭公司發表評論。一般我們大客戶都是沒有庫存的,都是直接到店出貨吧?因此庫存通常由罐頭公司承擔。我認為可以肯定地說,我們目前的庫存水平並不高於 1 月 1 日的水平,這取決於第三季度的強勁程度——可能會有些令人擔憂。因此,我們將繼續盡最大努力運轉,並需要工廠盡可能有效率。

  • We will look again to build some more inventory as we get into Q4 because we do see a very strong 2026 as we sit here today. So if I was to try to answer that a different way, Ghansham, I would say that we probably have a few hundred million less cans in inventory than we would like right now.

    進入第四季度後,我們將再次考慮建立更多庫存,因為從今天的情況來看,我們確實看到 2026 年的情況非常強勁。因此,甘沙姆,如果我嘗試以不同的方式回答這個問題,我會說我們庫存中的罐子可能比我們現在想要的少了數億個。

  • Ghansham Panjabi - Senior Research Analyst

    Ghansham Panjabi - Senior Research Analyst

  • That's why I was asking. Okay. And then in terms of the 2026, you just made a comment on the strength expected next year. Can you just update us as it relates to contracts coming up, your share position, your expected share position in 2026 in North America?

    這就是我問的原因。好的。然後就 2026 年而言,您剛才對明年預期的實力做出了評論。您能否向我們介紹即將簽訂的合約、您的股份狀況以及 2026 年在北美的預期股份狀況?

  • And then in terms of just, again, high-level drivers of earnings growth in 2026, is it fair to assume that capital allocation will feature more aggressively in terms of what drives earnings versus obviously very, very difficult comparisons, given strong operating results in 2025?

    那麼,就 2026 年獲利成長的高層驅動因素而言,考慮到 2025 年強勁的經營業績,是否可以公平地假設,資本配置將在推動獲利方面發揮更積極的作用,而這顯然是非常非常困難的比較?

  • Timothy Donahue - Chairman of the Board, President, Chief Executive Officer

    Timothy Donahue - Chairman of the Board, President, Chief Executive Officer

  • So we have -- there is one larger customer who's in the process of trying to renew and extend the contract across the entire industry. And -- but beyond that, as we sit here today, and I don't want to talk too specifically, but we do know what we have under contract leading in the next year. We do know what the customers are telling us about their growth aspirations.

    因此,我們有一位較大的客戶正在嘗試與整個行業續約和延長合約。而且 — — 但除此之外,今天我們坐在這裡,我不想談論得太具體,但我們確實知道明年我們的合約將如何進行。我們確實知道客戶告訴我們的他們的成長願望。

  • And it feels like next year could be a very tight year for us. And it's why I suggested we would like to build some inventory in Q4 ahead of that, and it's why I suggested we're probably a little bit low on inventory right now. So we're going to do the best we can to keep running and building inventory in a responsible manner.

    感覺明年對我們來說可能會是非常緊張的一年。這就是為什麼我建議我們希望在第四季度之前建立一些庫存,這也是為什麼我認為我們現在的庫存可能有點低。因此,我們將盡最大努力以負責任的方式繼續運作和建立庫存。

  • As for earnings growth next year, there's puts and takes everywhere. Certainly, as others have been rewarded with capital allocation, featured capital allocation and their earnings trajectory, we're going to see more and more of that as we go forward. But we run a business here. Our hope is that most of our earnings growth comes from the business. So we'll see -- we've got a couple of businesses right now.

    至於明年的獲利成長,到處都有利弊。當然,隨著其他人獲得資本配置、特色資本配置和獲利軌蹟的獎勵,我們將在未來看到越來越多這樣的情況。但我們在這裡經營生意。我們希望大部分獲利成長來自於業務。所以我們會看到——我們現在有幾家企業。

  • Asia and transit where volumes have been soft over the last 18, 24, 30, 36 months, it's been soft for a while. And we've stripped out so much cost in both of those businesses that we're really excited for when volume does return because it should all flow to the bottom line. So that's number one.

    在過去 18、24、30、36 個月裡,亞洲和過境運輸量一直處於疲軟狀態,而且這種疲軟狀態已經持續了一段時間。我們已經削減了這兩項業務的大量成本,因此當業務量真正回升時,我們感到非常興奮,因為這一切都將流向利潤。這是第一點。

  • We do see Europe continuing to grow and that's going to provide more earnings. I think Brazil continues to grow. Mexico soft this year. And so the opportunity for Mexico to firm up a little bit. And then in the Americas, we know we're going to be full next year.

    我們確實看到歐洲持續成長,這將帶來更多的收益。我認為巴西將繼續成長。墨西哥今年表現疲軟。這對墨西哥來說是一個進一步的加強機會。在美洲,我們知道明年我們的客流量將會滿。

  • And so the offsets here will be all the other miscellaneous things that happen in a business that we don't talk about because it just confuses the strength of the business. So if there is any offset, but it feels like next year should be a very good year as well. But we're too early to get there, Ghansham, let's not get ahead of ourselves.

    因此,這裡的抵銷將是企業中發生的所有其他雜事,我們不會談論這些事情,因為這只會混淆企業的實力。因此,如果有任何抵消,但感覺明年也應該是一個非常好的一年。但是我們到達那裡還為時過早,甘沙姆,我們不要操之過急。

  • Ghansham Panjabi - Senior Research Analyst

    Ghansham Panjabi - Senior Research Analyst

  • Of course. Okay, thanks again.

    當然。好的,再次感謝。

  • Timothy Donahue - Chairman of the Board, President, Chief Executive Officer

    Timothy Donahue - Chairman of the Board, President, Chief Executive Officer

  • Thank you.

    謝謝。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Josh Spector, UBS.

    瑞銀的喬希·斯佩克特。

  • Joshua Spector - Analyst

    Joshua Spector - Analyst

  • Yeah, hi, good morning. I just had a follow-up specifically on CapEx. I guess as I look at the next few years and you maintain your conviction around kind of 1% to 3% volume growth, where does CapEx need to go in order for you to achieve that?

    是的,你好,早安。我剛剛專門對資本支出進行了跟進。我想,當我展望未來幾年時,您會堅信銷售成長率在 1% 到 3% 左右,那麼為了實現這一目標,資本支出需要花在哪裡?

  • Timothy Donahue - Chairman of the Board, President, Chief Executive Officer

    Timothy Donahue - Chairman of the Board, President, Chief Executive Officer

  • Well, Josh, we're sitting here with an estimate this year of $450 million and probably, I guess, we were similar to that number last year, plus or minus. But within that number, let's say that our maintenance capital is $250 million to $300 million, that still leaves you with a solid $150 million or $200 million for growth projects. And those growth projects would be centered almost entirely in the beverage can business globally.

    嗯,喬希,我們今年的估計數字是 4.5 億美元,我想,可能與去年的數字差不多,有大有小。但在這個數字之內,假設我們的維護資本為 2.5 億至 3 億美元,那麼仍然可以剩下 1.5 億或 2 億美元用於成長項目。這些成長項目幾乎完全集中在全球飲料罐業務上。

  • And I don't think we see any large growth needs in Asia given the footprint we have and the softness we've had there. So it's principally centered around the Americas and Europe. We did announce a third line in Ponta Grossa in Brazil that we're going to get underway soon.

    考慮到我們在亞洲的業務範圍和疲軟表現,我認為我們不會認為亞洲有任何重大的成長需求。所以它主要集中在美洲和歐洲。我們確實宣布了即將在巴西蓬塔格羅薩啟動的第三條生產線。

  • And that will account for a lot of the difference between this year's target of $450 million and where we sit through six months with a short of $100 million. We have a project where we're doing a significant modernization and upgrade to a facility in Greece, and that will be some of the other spending.

    這將在很大程度上解釋今年 4.5 億美元的目標與我們六個月以來的 1 億美元短缺情況之間的差異。我們有一個項目,正在對希臘的一個設施進行重大的現代化和升級,這將是其他一些支出。

  • But I think we have adequate adequate room in the envelope of $450 million. Now let's be clear, if Kevin is going to sit here and tell us every year, we've got $800 million to $900 million of cash flow. If we needed to, to support our customers and grow our business, we can certainly afford to spend another $100 million from time to time to continue to grow the business. We like nothing more than that opportunity.

    但我認為 4.5 億美元的預算中有足夠的空間。現在讓我們明確一點,如果凱文每年都坐在這裡告訴我們,我們有 8 億到 9 億美元的現金流。如果需要的話,為了支持我們的客戶並發展我們的業務,我們當然可以不時地再花費 1 億美元來繼續發展業務。我們最喜歡這個機會。

  • Joshua Spector - Analyst

    Joshua Spector - Analyst

  • That's helpful. Just a quick follow-up on that. Is that -- so if you did have those opportunities, you did decide to invest an extra $100 million would you be growing above the 1% to 3% range? Or would that just be a timing effect?

    這很有幫助。對此僅做快速跟進。是這樣的——如果您確實有這些機會,您確實決定額外投資 1 億美元,您的成長率是否會超過 1% 到 3% 的範圍?或者這只是一個時間效應?

  • Timothy Donahue - Chairman of the Board, President, Chief Executive Officer

    Timothy Donahue - Chairman of the Board, President, Chief Executive Officer

  • In the year, you spend it, you may not be growing, but in the following years, you would believe that you're growing a little bit more than that. But remember one thing, we don't sell quite 100 billion units. We're somewhere between 80 billion and 100 billion units.

    在你花錢的那一年,你可能沒有成長,但在接下來的幾年裡,你會相信你的成長會比那多一點。但請記住一件事,我們的銷量還不到 1000 億台。我們的單位數量在 800 億到 1000 億之間。

  • So when we add a facility, we had a can line and if it's 1 billion to 1.2 billion of units on a can line. It's -- you're a little more than 1% there. So if you get it all in one year, it's 1%. So just be a little careful with your excitement level. It's -- you're adding into a very big denominator right now.

    因此,當我們增加一個設施時,我們就有一條罐裝生產線,並且一條罐裝生產線上的產量為 10 億到 12 億個單位。那是——你的比例略高於 1%。因此,如果您在一年內獲得全部收益,則收益率為 1%。所以要稍微注意一下你的興奮程度。這是——你現在正在增加一個非常大的分母。

  • Joshua Spector - Analyst

    Joshua Spector - Analyst

  • Fair enough. Thank you.

    很公平。謝謝。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Jeff Zekauskas, JPMorgan Chase.

    摩根大通的 Jeff Zekauskas。

  • Jeffrey Zekauskas - Analyst

    Jeffrey Zekauskas - Analyst

  • Thanks very much. A lot of the free cash flow in the quarter came from a change in payables and accrued liabilities. Maybe you increased $350 million sequentially. What's behind that? And is that the level that you're going to stay at this $3.5 billion for the remainder of the year?

    非常感謝。本季的自由現金流大多來自應付款項和應計負債的變動。也許你連續增加了 3.5 億美元。這背後有什麼原因?那麼,今年剩餘時間裡,你們的支出水準是否會維持在 35 億美元這一水準呢?

  • Timothy Donahue - Chairman of the Board, President, Chief Executive Officer

    Timothy Donahue - Chairman of the Board, President, Chief Executive Officer

  • Well, Jeff, I think if you look at that in combination with the increase in receivables and inventories, your trade -- let's say, trade working capital is roughly flat year-on-year. It's not $300 million. Maybe it's only a $100 million increase when you think about trade working capital, the working capital necessary to run a business. And that residual $100 million largely around the inflation of aluminum that we're currently absorbing.

    好吧,傑夫,我認為如果你結合應收帳款和庫存的增加來看,你的貿易——比方說,貿易營運資本與去年同期大致持平。這不是3億美元。當你考慮貿易營運資本(即經營企業所需的營運資本)時,也許這只是增加了 1 億美元。剩餘的 1 億美元主要用於我們目前正在吸收的鋁通膨。

  • Jeffrey Zekauskas - Analyst

    Jeffrey Zekauskas - Analyst

  • Okay. Great. And in terms of -- you took $45 million in restructuring charges in the first half or nonrecurring charges, what might be that for the year? And how much of that will turn out to be cash for severance?

    好的。偉大的。就上半年重組費用或非經常性費用而言,您花費了 4500 萬美元,那麼全年的金額是多少?其中有多少會成為遣散費現金?

  • Timothy Donahue - Chairman of the Board, President, Chief Executive Officer

    Timothy Donahue - Chairman of the Board, President, Chief Executive Officer

  • So the write-down of the assets in China is noncash, so maybe of the $45 million, maybe half of it.

    因此,中國資產的減記是非現金的,所以可能是 4,500 萬美元中的一半。

  • Kevin Clothier - Chief Financial Officer, Senior Vice President

    Kevin Clothier - Chief Financial Officer, Senior Vice President

  • $10 million to $15 million.

    1000萬到1500萬美元。

  • Timothy Donahue - Chairman of the Board, President, Chief Executive Officer

    Timothy Donahue - Chairman of the Board, President, Chief Executive Officer

  • Kevin's saying $10 million to $15 million would be cash.

    凱文說 1000 萬到 1500 萬美元將是現金。

  • Kevin Clothier - Chief Financial Officer, Senior Vice President

    Kevin Clothier - Chief Financial Officer, Senior Vice President

  • Whatever -- yes, so the cash will be baked into the projection that we have, Jeff, so for the year. Some of the cash may play out over a couple of years as we put the actions in place.

    無論如何 - 是的,現金將被計入我們的預測中,傑夫,所以對於今年來說。隨著我們採取行動,部分現金可能會在幾年內用完。

  • Timothy Donahue - Chairman of the Board, President, Chief Executive Officer

    Timothy Donahue - Chairman of the Board, President, Chief Executive Officer

  • As we sit here today, I don't think we have any -- we don't have any knowledge because if we did, we would have already booked it. So as we sit here today, unless something happens or we get an opportunity to do something considerable, I can't even begin to estimate if there's any more to book at this point.

    當我們今天坐在這裡時,我認為我們沒有任何知識,因為如果我們有的話,我們早就預訂了。因此,當我們今天坐在這裡時,除非發生某些事情或我們有機會做一些重大的事情,否則我什至無法開始估計現在是否還有更多預訂。

  • Jeffrey Zekauskas - Analyst

    Jeffrey Zekauskas - Analyst

  • Okay, great. Thank you very much.

    好的,太好了。非常感謝。

  • Timothy Donahue - Chairman of the Board, President, Chief Executive Officer

    Timothy Donahue - Chairman of the Board, President, Chief Executive Officer

  • Thank you.

    謝謝。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Stefan Diaz, Morgan Stanley.

    摩根士丹利的史蒂芬·迪亞茲。

  • Stefan Diaz - Analyst

    Stefan Diaz - Analyst

  • Hi Tim. Hi Kevin, how are you guys doing? Maybe just in Asia. Maybe if you could just go into a little deeper what you're seeing there. I know you mentioned in the prepared remarks that you think tariffs are weighing on consumer confidence, but maybe if you could weigh that versus maybe some competitors that are expanding in the region? And maybe if you have an estimate of what the volumes for the region were this quarter?

    你好,提姆。嗨,凱文,你們好嗎?也許只是在亞洲。也許你可以更深入地了解你所看到的東西。我知道您在準備好的發言中提到,您認為關稅正在影響消費者信心,但您是否可以將其與該地區正在擴張的一些競爭對手進行比較?您能否估算一下本季該地區的銷售量是多少?

  • Timothy Donahue - Chairman of the Board, President, Chief Executive Officer

    Timothy Donahue - Chairman of the Board, President, Chief Executive Officer

  • Yes. So I'm sorry, what I said in my prepared remarks is the market was down high single digits. We were probably down in the -- a little bit more than that in the double digits. So the market was down significantly in the second quarter. So this would be all can makers, the market in total down.

    是的。所以很抱歉,我在準備好的發言中說過,市場下跌了個位數。我們的跌幅可能比兩位數略高一些。因此第二季市場大幅下滑。因此,所有罐頭製造商的市場總體都會下滑。

  • So a real slowdown in the region not just for can makers, not just for beverage -- consumer beverage companies, but for many industries.

    因此,該地區經濟的真正放緩不僅影響罐頭製造商、飲料消費公司,也影響許多產業。

  • Stefan Diaz - Analyst

    Stefan Diaz - Analyst

  • That's helpful. And then maybe back to Americas margins. I know you answered a couple of questions on this already. But I think in the release, you mentioned favorable mix. Was there any like can end, can body shipment miss timing that also helped margins in 2Q? Or anything specific to call out there?

    這很有幫助。然後也許會回到美國的邊緣。我知道您已經回答了幾個有關此的問題。但我認為在發布中您提到了有利的組合。是否有類似情況,例如車身出貨錯過時機也有助於提高第二季的利潤率?或是有什麼特別需要注意的地方嗎?

  • Timothy Donahue - Chairman of the Board, President, Chief Executive Officer

    Timothy Donahue - Chairman of the Board, President, Chief Executive Officer

  • I don't think there was a mix between ends and cans, but I do think that our ongoing underweighting to US domestic beer has been helpful in our mix. We have a significant position in beer in Canada, and we have a very significant position in beer in Mexico as we do in Brazil.

    我不認為瓶蓋和罐頭之間存在混合,但我確實認為,我們持續對美國國產啤酒的低配對我們的組合有所幫助。我們在加拿大的啤酒市場佔有重要地位,在墨西哥和巴西的啤酒市場也佔有非常重要的地位。

  • However, in the United States, we're significantly underweight to the market in beer. So again, we referenced mix because we're underweight to beer in the United States.

    然而,在美國,我們的啤酒市佔率卻明顯不足。因此,我們再次提到混合,因為我們在美國的啤酒份額不足。

  • Stefan Diaz - Analyst

    Stefan Diaz - Analyst

  • That's helpful. And then maybe if I could just slip in one last one. Any update on the 2026 business win that you hinted to a couple of quarters ago? Thank you, guys.

    這很有幫助。然後也許我可以再說最後一個。您幾個季度前暗示的 2026 年業務勝利有任何進展嗎?謝謝你們。

  • Timothy Donahue - Chairman of the Board, President, Chief Executive Officer

    Timothy Donahue - Chairman of the Board, President, Chief Executive Officer

  • I prefer not to give you that update. So thank you.

    我不想向你提供該更新資訊。所以謝謝你。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Mike Roxland, Truist Securities.

    Truist Securities 的 Mike Roxland。

  • Michael Rockland - Analyst

    Michael Rockland - Analyst

  • Yes, thank you, Tim, Kevin, thanks for taking my questions and congrats on a strong quarter. Just one quick question for me, Tim. You noticed that you mentioned that there's been a step change in earnings and EBITDA. And there are a number of questions on the sustainability of margins. So I'm just wondering, can you talk about the sustainability of margins at these levels in North America.

    是的,謝謝你們,提姆,凱文,謝謝你們回答我的問題,並祝賀你們本季表現強勁。提姆,我只想問一個簡單的問題。您注意到您提到收益和 EBITDA 發生了顯著變化。關於利潤的可持續性還存在許多問題。所以我只是想知道,您能否談談北美這些水準的利潤率的可持續性。

  • I mean, one of your peers, I think, recently noted that margins in North America are in a high watermark. So given what the CPGs are facing, given the backdrop that they're in, could give me some potential for some margin degradation given that this is the overall climate. Any insight you could share in terms of the sustainability of EBITDA margins and risk that margins could decline given the backdrop?

    我的意思是,我想您的一位同事最近指出,北美的利潤率處於高位。因此,考慮到 CPG 所面臨的情況,考慮到它們所處的背景,在整體環境下,利潤率可能會下降。您能否就 EBITDA 利潤率的可持續性以及在當前背景下利潤率可能下降的風險分享一些見解?

  • Thank you.

    謝謝。

  • Timothy Donahue - Chairman of the Board, President, Chief Executive Officer

    Timothy Donahue - Chairman of the Board, President, Chief Executive Officer

  • Okay. Listen, good question. I may be careful how I answer this, but I -- our -- for the most part, our customers, especially our large customers across the beverage universe make double or more than double the margins we make. The amount of capital we invest in our factories, the amount of time and expense we invest in hiring and training employees to run cans at 3,000 or 3,500 cans a minute at high efficiency and low spoilage is not insignificant.

    好的。聽著,好問題。我可能會謹慎地回答這個問題,但在大多數情況下,我們的客戶,特別是飲料領域的大客戶賺取的利潤是我們利潤的兩倍甚至兩倍以上。我們在工廠上投入的資金、在僱用和培訓員工上投入的時間和費用,這些都不是微不足道的,因為我們要實現每分鐘 3,000 或 3,500 罐的高效率和低損耗生產,這些投入都是巨大的。

  • It's incumbent upon us if we're going to make those investments that we get what we believe is an adequate return. Regardless of where the return sits today in relation to the past, I would argue that in the past, the returns were so bad, they were so low that it's irrelevant where we sit today versus in the past.

    如果我們要進行這些投資,我們就有責任獲得我們認為足夠的回報。無論今天的回報率與過去相比處於什麼水平,我認為過去的回報率非常糟糕,非常低,因此我們今天與過去相比處於什麼水平是無關緊要的。

  • Now perhaps I have a different view on what my responsibility to my shareholders is than others, but -- it may be higher than it was in the past, but maybe it's only now beginning to approach what it should be.

    現在,我對自己對股東的責任的看法可能與其他人不同,但——它可能比過去更高,但也許現在才開始接近應有的水平。

  • Michael Rockland - Analyst

    Michael Rockland - Analyst

  • Thank you.

    謝謝。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Gabe Hajde, Wells Fargo Securities.

    富國證券的 Gabe Hajde。

  • Gabe Hajde - Analyst

    Gabe Hajde - Analyst

  • Thank you. Tim Kevin, good morning. Congrats on the Forbes award. I know you pride yourself on being a science-based organization as it relates to carbon and net zero. I had a question similar to what Mike was getting at, but just maybe short term, and I know there's vagaries in terms of customer order patterns and shipments and things like that.

    謝謝。提姆凱文,早安。恭喜您榮獲福布斯獎。我知道你們為自己是一個與碳和淨零相關的科學組織而感到自豪。我有一個與麥克類似的問題,但可能只是短期的,而且我知道客戶訂單模式和發貨等方面存在變化。

  • But I think you intimated North American growth of three, you're at one inventories running a tick below where you'd like them to be. It's just a simple function of kind of preparedness coming into the summer selling season and it was over stronger than what you expected, undergrowing the market a little bit despite sort of categorically where things are shaken out, you guys would be performing better.

    但我認為您暗示北美的成長率為 3,而庫存卻比您希望的水平低一點。這只是為進入夏季銷售旺季而做的簡單準備,而且它比你預期的要強勁,儘管在某種意義上情況發生了變化,但市場增長略低於預期,你們的表現會更好。

  • Timothy Donahue - Chairman of the Board, President, Chief Executive Officer

    Timothy Donahue - Chairman of the Board, President, Chief Executive Officer

  • I don't know if we were underprepared coming of the year. We had a view what our growth would be this year at the beginning of the year, and we shared that with you in late January, early February. I think largely our growth has been what we expected it to be. I think maybe it's a touch higher than what we expected it to be, and that accounts for the small shortfall inventory that we have right now.

    我不知道我們是否對今年的到來準備不足。我們在年初就對今年的成長進行了展望,並在 1 月底和 2 月初與大家分享了這項預測。我認為我們的成長基本上符合我們的預期。我認為它可能比我們預期的要高一點,這解釋了我們目前的庫存略有短缺。

  • But it does feel like the market -- if the market -- and I'm guessing, right, as I said, Gabe, if the market was up 2% to 3%, 3.5%, it does feel like that number is a little higher than we expected the market to be at the beginning of the year. And so, to the extent that business moves around from customer to customer, that is on the grocery shelf one customer does better than the other, that in total, the market is better and not understanding how other companies are performing manufacturing-wise.

    但確實感覺市場——如果市場——我猜,對的,正如我所說的,加布,如果市場上漲 2% 到 3%,3.5%,那麼感覺這個數字確實比我們預期的市場在年初要高一點。因此,就業務在各個客戶之間轉移而言,也就是說,在食品貨架上,一個客戶的表現比另一個客戶更好,總體而言,市場更好,並且不了解其他公司在製造方面的表現。

  • Do you have some companies that are in a shortfall position and yielding more cans to other companies, I don't know. But we're getting pretty fine here and trying to analyze ourselves to death. I think largely we're where we thought we would be. I think the market is a little ahead of where we thought it would be.

    是否有一些公司處於短缺狀態並向其他公司提供更多的罐頭,我不知道。但我們在這裡做得很好,並試圖徹底分析自己。我認為,我們基本上處於我們所期望的狀態。我認為市場比我們想像的要領先一些。

  • Maybe we underestimated the market this year. And maybe the market is even stronger than others had estimated. It does feel like promotions were a little stronger around Memorial Day on July 4, and we certainly had seen last year and perhaps what we even thought they would be. So it probably yields to an answer that the market is even stronger than anybody thought it would be.

    也許我們低估了今年的市場。或許市場比其他人估計的還要強勁。確實感覺 7 月 4 日陣亡將士紀念日前後的促銷活動力度更大一些,我們去年肯定已經看過,甚至可能和我們想像的一樣。因此,答案很可能是市場比任何人想像的都要強勁。

  • Gabe Hajde - Analyst

    Gabe Hajde - Analyst

  • Yes. Okay. Fair enough. If we strip out metal inflation, is there anything abnormal when you look at the other cost inputs and PPIs flowing into next year that we should be aware of? And I have one other one.

    是的。好的。很公平。如果我們剔除金屬通膨因素,那麼在觀察明年的其他成本投入和 PPI 時,是否存在我們應該注意的異常情況?我還有另外一個。

  • Thank you.

    謝謝。

  • Timothy Donahue - Chairman of the Board, President, Chief Executive Officer

    Timothy Donahue - Chairman of the Board, President, Chief Executive Officer

  • We did have a PPI increase this year. I don't know where it sits right now, probably a little close to flatter right now. Now what's going to happen over the next six months, I don't know. It feels like we could see a little inflation, but I don't know. But nothing abnormal that I want to talk about.

    今年我們的 PPI 確實上漲了。我不知道它現在位於哪裡,現在可能有點接近平坦。我不知道接下來的六個月會發生什麼事。感覺我們可能會看到一點通貨膨脹,但我不知道。但我想談論的並沒有什麼異常。

  • Gabe Hajde - Analyst

    Gabe Hajde - Analyst

  • Okay. And then European business, can you talk about how Continental Europe is performing maybe versus the Middle East volume-wise and maybe profitability, just not getting -- I'm not trying to get too specific, but just if there's anything that stands out to you on the profitability side?

    好的。然後是歐洲業務,您能否談談歐洲大陸的表現,與中東相比,在銷量和盈利能力方面如何,只是沒有得到 - 我不想說得太具體,但在盈利能力方面,您是否注意到了什麼?

  • Timothy Donahue - Chairman of the Board, President, Chief Executive Officer

    Timothy Donahue - Chairman of the Board, President, Chief Executive Officer

  • I think that the factories we have in the Gulf states probably have a touch higher return than the factories we have in Europe. But most of that is due to the fact that they're either fully depreciated or close to fully depreciated. I would say the underlying performance of the plants is similar. That is the -- they run very well in each region.

    我認為我們在海灣國家的工廠的回報率可能比我們在歐洲的工廠高一點。但其中大部分是因為它們已經完全折舊或接近完全折舊。我想說這些植物的底層表現是相似的。也就是說——它們在每個地區都運作得很好。

  • Pricing isn't dissimilar. It just has to do with depreciation levels with newer plants in Continental Europe and more fully depreciated plants in the Gulf states. Having said that, growth -- at least this quarter, growth might have been a touch higher in the Middle East than it was in Continental Europe, but both very strong. And I think year-to-date, I don't have it in front of me, I would think that they're more similar than dissimilar.

    定價並沒有什麼不同。這只是與歐洲大陸較新的工廠和海灣國家較完全折舊的工廠的折舊水準有關。話雖如此,但至少在本季度,中東地區的成長可能比歐洲大陸的略高,但兩者都非常強勁。我認為從今年到目前為止的情況來看,我還沒有看到它們,我認為它們的相似之處多於不同之處。

  • Gabe Hajde - Analyst

    Gabe Hajde - Analyst

  • Thank you, good luck for the second half.

    謝謝,祝下半場好運。

  • Timothy Donahue - Chairman of the Board, President, Chief Executive Officer

    Timothy Donahue - Chairman of the Board, President, Chief Executive Officer

  • Thank you very much.

    非常感謝。

  • So I think you told us that was the last question. So thank you very much, and we thank you all for joining us, and we look forward to speaking with you again in October. Bye now.

    所以我想你告訴我們這是最後一個問題。非常感謝,我們感謝大家加入我們,我們期待十月份再次與您交談。再見了。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Thank you. And that concludes today's conference. Thank you, everyone, for joining. You may now disconnect and have a great day.

    謝謝。今天的會議到此結束。謝謝大家的參與。現在您可以斷開連接並享受美好的一天。